– DogArtists.co.uk
The Doctor is IN. The waiting room is teeming. So much angst, and so little time before tee-off. Who’s first?
“Thanks for the daily reading,” says Brock. “It helps get me through the day. Now the question.”
When does it make sense to refinance your mortgage for more than is left owing, so you can invest some assets to get closer to your rule of 90. With mortgage rates low, and maybe getting lower when its renewal time for myself, I was thinking of adding on 100k to my mortgage so I can invest it. It would help my assets diversify and get my closer to the 90. I have pretty low mortgage payments now, and adding the extra 100k wouldn’t put my monthly payments anywhere close to nervous payment territory. Please do let me know your thoughts.
The good news – mortgage money’s relatively cheap. The better news is any additional amount you borrow can save on tax. All the interest (not principal repayments) on funds used in your non-registered portfolio can be deducted from taxable income. But if the money’s dumped in an RRSP or TFSA, no such luck. Also be aware you might be better off just adding the extra amount not as part of the mortgage but as a separate HELOC. Then interest-only payments are possible, and 100% of those can be written off.
Sure, borrowing at 3% to get a return of 6% or 7% makes sense, especially with the tax break. But wait. You need a long-term focus, a balanced, lower-risk portfolio and resolve not to freak out and sell if assets temporarily decline. Borrowing to invest brings benefits and risks. Above all, it must pass the Spouse Test.
Now here’s James. He looks hostile, plus I’m not too thrilled about letting a guy into my office who’s wearing a sidearm.
“Why do you hate gold so much?”
Simple. I don’t. But it’s metal, not money. You can’t buy anything with gold, use it when the power goes off or terrorists kill the Internet, nor has it performed that well in times of inflation. Gold is worth $600 less an ounce than eight years ago, which must tell you something. It pays no dividends or interest. All gains are subject to tax. Buying it is purely speculative and a form of gambling, since there’s no income. Bullion is a cult asset, often pushed by the unscrupulous as some kind of moronic insurance against events that never materialize.
Hey, gold up if you want. But don’t call it an investment. And stop loading that thing.
Now, fresh off the line making Silverados and Impalas is Jonathan. Sadly the big GM plant outside Toronto is in trouble, but J’s got a golden parachute.
“Hey Garth a friend got me onto your Blog a few years ago and another friend has you managing his retirement. I respect your insight and am looking for advice if possible. I’m a GM Oshawa worker who fortunately just got my 30 years so full pension eligible. We are also receiving a $130,000 buyout. My C.V. is currently worth approx $750,000. My forced Lira contribution is approx $230,000 and I’ve got $80,000 is rrsp contribution room left. My pension is worth just shy of $3,300/month. Our savings are minimal sadly. We have purchased our retirement property in a small town and plan to sell our current home next spring which if housing conditions stay about where they are now we should be in the clear about $200,000 with a new home to move into. I’m going to be 51 when I leave this fall and am battling with myself over the Pension or C.V. option. Grateful to have the option and feel extremely saddened by those left less fortunate in the wake of this closure. Any advice would be appreciated.”
We’ve dealt with this topic a few times, J. My opinion has not changed. Commute it. Several reasons.
First, if you take the money instead of the monthly pension you’ll be in control of your own destiny and financial future. The big Car Guys like GM are struggling to find their way in a post-carbon world, so the corporate pension plan might well be a sick puppy in 25 years, when you need it most. Second, you (plus an advisor) can probably do a better job of investing the money to suit your income needs – odds are you’ll land another job for a while (you’re just a kid) and want this cash to grow. Third, if you commute, all of the money becomes the property of your family. If you croak early, your spouse and kids get it all (write a will). Not so if you stick with the plan.
As for taxes, remember that staying with the pension plan means 100% of every monthly payment is taxed. If you commute, a chunk will be taxable in one year – but the rest can grow tax-free inside the LIRA, plus you can use the RRSP room to shelter more, and stick six figures in TFSAs for you and your partner.
Selling the house is good, but why wait until 2020? Do it now with a long close. Come next spring, you’ll know why.
And finally, before the office shuts, a few moments for poor Phil. I think he’s pooched.
“I’m a recent worshipper of your perspectives, insights and blog. At the very least, it has given me the confidence to put my guards up when showered with illogical, past-generation propaganda. I’m a 32 year old moisty-moist living in the GTA and have only recently started to learn and see the light. I’m currently renting and am happy doing so. On my own, I wouldn’t be able to buy right now anyway, even if I wanted to.
My girlfriend and I would really like to start living together (likely in Hamilton) but she is quite adamant about owning instead of renting (from what I can tell she’s been raised on a diet of “renting is a waste of money”). She CAN afford a down-payment for what she wants but wouldn’t be able to further afford/get approval for a low rate without another person (i.e. me) going in with her. From what I understand most of her net-worth would be going into the house whereas mine would go relatively untouched as I ride shotgun.
Girlfriend: savings after down-payment: $0 Me: savings after down-payment: $25,000.
All my “new” instincts are saying NOOOO!!! but I couldn’t help but wonder…
…if the housing prices in Hamilton are indeed going up and despite our differing opinion I definitely see a future with this girl, is there some sense to buying now vs later? Or is it inevitably filled with the same house-poorness seen across Canada? Am I falling for the trap? I’m ready for whatever you might think of me…”
To summarize: the GF wants real estate (because her parents are pushing) which she can’t finance on her own, and will then have no money left after you get into the obligation and put your name on the mortgage. Seriously?
Man, she must be good. And you already know the answer.
129 comments ↓
No interest reduction from Federal reserve and hopefully none long term bt BOC.
Wish real estate in Metro Vancouver would crash harder and faster
Quote:
To summarize: the GF wants real estate (because her parents are pushing)
Now, does ‘GF’ stand for girlfriend, or greaterfool…..or is that a trick question?!
Reminds me of the old show The Prisoner…”who is number one?”…”you are, number two!”.
Gold? What’s up with something on the periodic table that’s labeled as a form of exchange? Went out the window decades ago. Get over it.
Loading up on the major indices globally speaking has a habit of making profit and maintaining buying power long term as opposed to commodity plays as those usually end up in the ditch.
Some get it, others never will.
Hey North Shore Mike, did you see this one just clear the million barrier in your neck of the woods?
Sold 1.05
Little bit bigger than the other ones down the bottom of the market, I think.
Get rid of the Ma and Pa look and it could be alright.
Flop…putting one frilly curtain company out of business at a time…
M44BC
https://www.zolo.ca/north-vancouver-real-estate/1776-rufus-drive
run for hills… are you completely nuts!.. not the tiniest chance in a gazillion years dude… rent til 7 year itch minimum
take the money dude….. not all plans let you do it…. if ya got the option at normal retirement date…take the money…..
“I definitely see a future with this girl, is there some sense to buying now vs later?”.
Rules of buying a home:
1) Are you married? No? Then don’t buy. Owing a property without being married is asking for trouble. Unless you want to man up and marry her now.
2) Do you have kids? No? Then don’t buy. I get the whole “security for my kids” thing, which is why I even have this point here.
3) Rule of 90? Remember that?
4) $25k as a back up fund? POOOOCHED!
http://www.sfu.ca/content/dam/sfu/mpp/WorkingPaperSeries/Solving%20Wozny%27s%20puzzle%20on%20decoupling%20and%20housing%202019%20Gordon%20(1).pdf?fbclid=IwAR1B608l0yV4Ox3EU5GrfGIywNLxDbtkeiYIly126VmL9Kz36G-3UTq7Ga4
A report published yesterday from SFU concluding foreign buying drove astronomical price gains in Vancouver and Toronto:
http://www.sfu.ca/content/dam/sfu/mpp/WorkingPaperSeries/Solving%20Wozny%27s%20puzzle%20on%20decoupling%20and%20housing%202019%20Gordon%20(1).pdf?fbclid=IwAR0jrpyViV9qCD05dSNJv92gWDv82CsCWSfJSmm7sjX67iRCT_4PKHlpJ8I
This report strongly contradicts Garth’s oft repeated mantra that foreigners are not to blame for this bubble, and is much more in line with the opinion of many of us here in the peanut gallery. Thoughts?
Survivor benefits are a thing in DB pension, when you retire you can choose what the spouse will get for the rest of their life if you kick the can first. So it doesn’t go (completely) poof when the pensioner dies.
Why would you buy real estate with a girlfriend? My friend just broke up with his g/f, they owned a house together, now they have to sell. Except they are both on the mortgage and he paid it while she paid some of the shared expenses. 50/50. You’re signing on for a lot of risk buddy. Take your $25K, keep it growing and get a tinder profile.
“Am I falling for the trap? I’m ready for whatever you might think of me…”-Phil.
Nah Phil, you aren’t falling for the trap.
You’re already in the trap brother.
Venus Fly Trap…
M44BC
Good advice as usual Dottore Garth.
And thank you Garth for having delivered 2 lovely Canadians and acolytes of your Blog near my doorstep in Venezia today.
Speaking about advice and Venezia, Venetians getting upset at tourist antics of late such as:
1. laying down with a friend in Piazza San Marco and using crumbs to attract pigeons while posing for snapshots with a dildo protruding from your jeans, OR
2. take a bath in the water with a friend in front of Piazza San Marco at a Gondola berth as the Gondola is rowing in and feigning “you were unaware this was not allowed”.
…the list goes on.
VENEZIA – The NEW Fines Part (a heads up for all you exhibitionists and extreme party goers):
1. € 350 for those who dirty public places in any way (they clean Venezia completely at the crack of dawn every day circa 6 AM only to have to start all over again next AM).
2. € 250 on those who walk around the city bare-chested or in public transport (Venezia is not the beach nor is it a beach town).
3. € 350 alcoholic tours or bachelor parties undermining urban security.
Thank municipal councilor Giorgio D’Este for the above “urban decorum”. Looks like the Venetians have had enough. It’s about time.
As usual and in Chrome, right click and select “Translate to English”…
https://www.ilgazzettino.it/nordest/venezia/passeggia_torso_nudo_brugnaro-4564975.html
Things that won’t pass the Spouse Test
1. Borrowing $100k at 3% cash interest cost to try to make 6 or 7%, perhaps only 3% of which will be cash – remainder volatile capital gains that may or may not be there. The idea of making say $3,000 or $4,000 after interest costs in return for taking on $100k in debt will not appeal to many spouses.
Okay of course maybe the interest cost is 2% after tax. But then the 6 to 7% is likely taxable so same $3, $4k net annual profit. Sure maybe TFSA is room is completely available. Unlikely given that anyone savvy enough to invest borrowed $100k has likely already maxed the TFSA. And if in RRSP there are taxes eventually. No, will not pass the spouse test. And getting a new spouse is no answer.
Also, borrow on line of credit interest only? I have an old secured LOC at HSBC. It requires principal and interest and the current rate is 4.45% – so I don’t use it. They did call me just the other day out of the blue and offered 3.95% on new borrowings above my current limit. No thanks.
2. Another thing that will not pass the spouse test if she has any brains. Commuting a General Motors Pension.
A balanced approach would suggest take the monthly pension given its certainty (barring a GM bankruptcy that is not bailed out and that occurs with the pension in deficit position) and invest the LIRA separately as well as invest any existing and future TFSA and RRSP on your own (perhaps with the help of an adviser). Balance.
Another factor in favor of taking the pension. Pension money is to be spent guilt free. A new cheque comes every month. In contrast, savers always feel a bit guilty spending their nest egg.
The spouse will get a survivor pension if you croak. Children will inherit nothing from a pension once both are passed away. And why would they ever expect to?
Thoroughly unconvincing and tinged with emotionalism. – Garth
#9 – Ross Kay has said foreign buyers did not cause the rise in Van home prices. The rich have always bought homes here. Low interest rates, lax lending practises, plus greed and fear perpetrated by realtor and media spin.
#62 Ronaldo on 06.18.19 at 11:47 pm
#37 SoggyShorts on 06.18.19 at 7:08 pm
#1 Stan Brooks on 06.18.19 at 4:23 pm
#113 Ronaldo on 06.18.19 at 11:24 am
Rather specific cherry picking, no?
How much was a TV in 1969 vs today? Over $1000?
That means inflation has been negative for 50 years!
====================================
And you base inflation on the price of a TV? That’s the ultimate in cherry picking.
*************************
That was my point- you can always find an extreme example.
Just because Vancouver/GTA houses have gone up by so much does not mean that inflation is 8-12% every year on everything Total cost of living the same quality of life has not increased 100 fold.
Your other examples prove this. $2,000 for a car then, not $200,000 now
6lb Apples or 3lb hamburger for $1 then, not $100 now.
20′ lader $29 then not $2,900 now
I agree that super specific RE is insane. Obviously. Stan’s claims of 8-12% inflation are also insane.
Canada should prepare itself for a new normal of low interest rates and low inflation, according to the chief executive officer of the Bank of Montreal.
“We’ve had movements that, on surface, at the macro-level, would appear quite volatile over the last two years,” said BMO CEO Darryl White in an interview with BNN Bloomberg’s Amanda Lang on Tuesday.
“But, when you trend it over time, you step back and look at it with a lot more aperture, you can come to the conclusion that we’re in a low-for-long environment both from a rates perspective and an inflation perspective. I think where we are now is actually reasonable.”
We renewed our mortgage for a larger amount a couple years back for about 2.5% to put some of the equity to work for us. Not only was my spouse on board, we invested in her name and she pays her portion of the interest to keep the investment income attributed to her vastly lower-taxed hands. This requires a carefully kept paper trail, a long-term perspective, and enough extra wiggle room that you really aren’t bothered by market fluctuations or the mortgage size. Not for everyone, but good for us.
-LD
Nothing wrong with buying a home with someone you love.
I believe their is a lot of opportunity for new builds in Brampton (hopefully you can afford the bad insurance prices) .
These days it comes down to how much money you and your partner are making. Some people are in love with their partners, and the couple that make a good living.
OMG, take the money through CV. Ask how many former Nortel employees, many with 30 yrs in with BNR and Nortel, got totally screwed. ya, Nortel could never fail, right? and their surviving beneficiaries, talk about double screwed. No pension is ever ever guaranteed. GM or any company can fail. nobody can take your CV money, and within the LIRA, no creditor, heck not even CRA can get it. no brainer.
Off topic…but there are days you just wonder (translation: a WTF moment for you Millennials).
On the train into Venezia early this AM I read that PM Trudeau et. al. approved the TML pipeline expansion and that yesterday Canada declared a Climate Emergency. Well, 1/2 not bad.
Apparently I was not the only one wondering, so was The Washington Post today (“On Monday, Canada declared a ‘climate emergency.’ On Tuesday, it approved a pipeline expansion.”).
Then I read on Twitter how Burnaby was indignant and virtue signaled aghast with the usual plethora’s of Born Again Eco Warriors.
Elizabeth May, ditto Burnaby.
————————————-
It’s very simple Eco Warrior Burnaby and Liz, come this November challenge Canadians to COMPLETELY stop using Fossil Fuels* and their derivatives until May (pun intended).
Money where your mouth is.
After your economy has collapsed and Canadians have either starved to death or frozen to death, get back to the rest of us evil users of oil and gas…then again, you won’t for obvious reasons (the death parts).
*Fossil Fuels includes that lovely metallurgical coal pile you have at Tsawwassen which apparently does not to bother the whales, snails, trees and bees. You know, this one:
https://globalnews.ca/video/3726821/thick-cloud-of-coal-dust-rises-in-tsawwassen
Well Liz, start in your own backyard…that raw sewage from Victoria that the Orca’s are unaware of as well.
Unconvincing?
From 14 above…
“The spouse will get a survivor pension if you croak. Children will inherit nothing from a pension once both are passed away. And why would they ever expect to?”
Thoroughly unconvincing and tinged with emotionalism. – Garth
**************************
Well, of course it is unconvincing. It’s rare to convince anyone of anything in today’s polarized world. We ALL already know everything. Don’t we? Who has time to consider a different view of much of anything in today’s world?
Emotional? Not in the least on my part. To each his own.
That sounded vaguely… emotional. – Garth
Oh doctor, smoking is bad for you, no?
In all fairness, this photo is more appropriate for a private investigator than a doctor.
Man, everything you say cracks me up.
Keep up the good work and my boy. Me
Is the GM pension currently well funded? That matters. If so, it should fully survive a GM bankruptcy. Well, except for idiotic laws that might? then require it to be invested all in bonds rather than in a balanced fashion.
“Now here’s James. He looks hostile, plus I’m not too thrilled about letting a guy into my office who’s wearing a sidearm.
“Why do you hate gold so much?”
Simple. I don’t. But it’s metal, not money…” -GT
– – – – –
Progress! At least you’re now referring to gold as ‘metal’ – instead of your usual: ‘rocks’.
To further your … hmmm, ‘rehabilitation’, Garth, how about you begin thinking of gold simply as another asset – which (as all other assets), will cycle from being undervalued to overvalued.
Then you can consider buying, it in the former state (and selling it in the latter).
Dr. TCC :)
“nor has it performed that well in times of inflation.”
This is not quite so. Gold has inflation hedging characteristics.
“Gold is worth $600 less an ounce than eight years ago, which must tell you something.”
A decade is statically insignificant when analyzing asset prices and market movements.
Economic regimes are dictated by growth and inflation. In the last decade we have only seen one economic regime; one in which gold does not do well (slow growth, slow positive inflation). That is hardly proof that gold does not have a place in a portfolio.
It is very hard to predict the economic regimes of the future. Some would keep gold in their portfolio as a diversifier (it provides both structural diversification and low market correlation) and because they humbly acknowledge they cannot predict the future (it is very hard to even determine in which kind of regime we are; let along predict an economic regime change).
Whether we find it logical or not, for millennia gold has kept up with inflation. It is a human thing.
Two cases (each with a professional quote and then an observation of mine):
Case I
“When inflation is rising in response to monetary policy actions, gold …prices will hold their value relative to a weakening currency.”
Now imagine what would happen if Modern Monetary Theory comes to be accepted. Long shot, but in the real of possibilities.
Case II
“Lastly, during periods like the Great Depression, there are negative GDP prints coupled with price deflation so that cash preserves its value relative to other goods and assets, while low and declining interest rates boost long duration Treasury bond prices. Historically, gold has served a role in this regime as authorities roll out the printing presses in their quest to conquer the prevailing deflationary forces.”
Long shot too; but possible.
She CAN afford a down-payment for what she wants but wouldn’t be able to further afford/get approval for a low rate without another person (i.e. me) going in with her.
Girlfriend: savings after down-payment: $0 Me: savings after down-payment: $25,000.
—————————————————-
Were you her first? Or did she descend from the heavens to “settle down”?
#16 SoggyShorts on 06.19.19 at 5:03 pm
I agree that super specific RE is insane. Obviously. Stan’s claims of 8-12% inflation are also insane.>
I said inflation is over 8 % in the last few years. Which is obvious even to the blind.
Rents have doubled in GTA in the last 5 years.
Look at food and grocery increases as well.
Which one is more believable: that inflation is 2 % or over 8 % in the last 4 years?
Housing inflation is indicative of the destruction of currency. A house in Vancouver and Toronto rose over 6 times in 2 decades. What is the inflation, sub 2 %? Sure.
I would suggest anyone looking to make a pension election with more than 10 years of Pensionable Service should sit down (i.e. pay for if necessary) a pension expert to evaluate their particular circumstances before making a final decision.
They are fee based consultants who aren’t trying to sell a particular service and will give you a broad based overview of all your options including:
1) estimating the value of things like Pension Benefits (Health, Dental, Life Insurance, Indexing, Death/Survivor Benefits)
2) the particulars of your pension plan
3) your particular actuarial assumptions (this part is not for the squeamish as the tables used for life-expectancy are gruesomely specific)
4) many plans actually offer their plan members access to pension specialists; the better ones include tax planning and legal advise
If your employer offers a pension course make a point of taking the course well before your retirement; I did the course in my mid-thirties and frankly I wish I had done it 10 years earlier. Most of the people taking the course were just about to retire when it’s a lot harder to pivot financially. Again, if the course includes tax planning and legal advise, it’s really worth your while.
“Why do you hate gold so much?”
Simple. I don’t. But it’s metal, not money…” -GT
—
A comment…
You come across as a gold ‘hater’ Garth, because you often refer to others who like to invest/speculate in precious metals, as ‘bullion-lickers’.
As you’ve acknowledged before, EVERYONE talks up their own game – that includes unscrupulous peddlers of gold, but so do Mutual Funds etc.
Gold is an Asset Class – nothing more, nothing less!
TCC
And wholly unsuited for ownership by 99% of the population. Stop pumping. – Garth
Are you daft? Do not borrow against your house for any reason! Pay it off!
That’s boring. Then what? – Garth
#28 Stan Brooks on 06.19.19 at 6:03 pm
#16 SoggyShorts on 06.19.19 at 5:03 pm
Which one is more believable: that inflation is 2 % or over 8 % in the last 4 years?
*****************************
Well since my rent is the same, gas is the same, trucks cost the same, and groceries are maybe a few percent higher(certainly not 36%!) I’m gonna go with 2%.
You need to think just a little harder about how averages work.
Now that the pipeline is back on – watch the parties out jockey each other to grab more voter power before the October Election. Trudeau will be kicked to the curb as a peace offering to the Country, if the Libs don’t give him the hook sooner…..
@stan brooks
Maybe it will help you if you look at it this way (but probably not)
There are over 30 million Canadians who have spent Trillions over the past few years. How much of that was spent buying a house in TO? virtually nothing.
GTA RE is not a significant enough factor to sway national inflation numbers because most people aren’t buying houses in the GTA.
The nice thing about the GM pension is the health plan is already separated from the pension plan. You retain your health plan even if you take the buyout.
I took the buyout and invested in blue chip dividend stocks( already had several hundred in stock before) and am up 19% in dividends and the capital gain is up 30% after 3.5 years.
If you do it yourself be prepared for a wild ride! Most people should use an advisor.
#9 – Ross Kay has said foreign buyers did not cause the rise in Van home prices. The rich have always bought homes here. Low interest rates, lax lending practises, plus greed and fear perpetrated by realtor and media spin.
_____________________
Did you even read the report?
Who cares about anecdotes, even ones from Ross Kay. The report is based on data and makes a strong argument.
I took my $850,000 pension this winter and transferred to a few LIRA’s at some credit unions. The reason I did this is because they were only offering $37,000 a year with a maximum 3% annual raise.
This is only a 4.35% guaranteed payout and at my death my spouse only gets only 60% of that which is 2.61% a year guaranteed annual payout which is almost $23,000 a year. Worse than that nothing to my kids after her passing.
The GIC’s with my credit unions are paying 3.75% or $31,875 a year interest plus I get to pass money to my spouse and kids. I know Garth does not like GIC rates right now and even when they were higher this winter but we already have a bunch of common stocks, REIT’s, ETF’s, preferred stocks, corporate bonds etc.
The LIRA’s represent 35% of our total net worth so the rest 65% is invested at a higher risk, return level.
#9 Millenial CTO on 06.19.19 at 4:36 pm
A report published yesterday from SFU concluding foreign buying drove astronomical price gains in Vancouver and Toronto:
http://www.sfu.ca/content/dam/sfu/mpp/WorkingPaperSeries/Solving%20Wozny%27s%20puzzle%20on%20decoupling%20and%20housing%202019%20Gordon%20(1).pdf
This report strongly contradicts Garth’s oft repeated mantra that foreigners are not to blame for this bubble, and is much more in line with the opinion of many of us here in the peanut gallery. Thoughts?
—
>Your “researcher” should do more research before making his hypothesis. (Complete article follows)
https://globalnews.ca/news/3924481/foreign-homebuyers-5-vancouver-toronto-statcan/
MONEY
December 19, 2017 7:31 am Updated: December 19, 2017 5:47 pm
Foreign homeownership less than 5% in Vancouver, Toronto: StatCan
By Erica Alini
New research on the Canadian housing market shows foreign buyers account for a small portion of house and condominium owners in the country’s largest cities.
Non-residents owned 3.4 per cent of all residential properties in Toronto, according to new housing statistics by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. and Statistics Canada. In Vancouver, non-residents owned 4.8 per cent of residential properties.
CMHC also says that foreign buyers owned less than one per cent of the condo stock in 17 metropolitan areas across the country.
The figures mark the first time that CMHC and Statistics Canada have quantified the level of foreign ownership in the country’s hot housing market to see how much influence foreign buyers have over skyrocketing prices.
And the numbers suggest a limited role of non-resident homeowners.
“These numbers are still significant, but of course they alone don’t explain the rapid appreciation in house prices in the [Greater Toronto Area],” said John Pasalis, president of Toronto-based Realosophy, a real estate information and services company.
“Domestic speculation was probably a bigger factor than non-resident purchases,” he adds.
The impact of foreign homeowners is likely more pronounced in the condo market, where non-residents hold 7.9 per cent of residential properties in Vancouver and 7.2 per cent in Toronto, StatCan found.
And in both the condo and the single-detached homes segments, property owned by non-residents is more expensive, on average, than that owned by Canadian residents.
In the city of Vancouver, the average value of condo apartments owned by foreign residents was $930,600, or 25.6 per cent higher than the average resident-owned unit. In Toronto proper, the average foreign owned condo is valued at $439,000, 7.6 per cent more than the average condo owned by residents.
The same trend was evident for single homes. In Vancouver, the average detached house owned by foreign homebuyers is worth $2.3 million compared with $1.6 million for resident-owned homes. In Toronto, the difference was $103,500, with homes owned by non-residents roughly 12 per cent more expensive than those owned by residents on average.
Still, the relatively small share of foreign-owned homes raises questions about the effectiveness of recently adopted measures aimed at dampening foreign investment in real estate.
Both B.C. and Ontario have enacted a foreign homebuyers tax in an attempt to slow breakneck price growth in their hottest real estate markets.
“Every attempt at estimating the role of foreign buyers reaches the same conclusion: They play an overstated role compared to the facts, while policy measures that target foreign buyers are more about the politics than the economics,” Derek Holt, head of Capital Markets Economics at ScotiaBank, told Global News.
B.C.’s first-ever data on foreign homebuyers in Vancouver showed that non-residents accounted for five per cent of purchases in June of 2016, before the implementation of the tax.
A similar survey in Ontaio shower non-resident homebuyers accounting for around seven per cent of monthly purchases in Toronto, prior to the tax.
And while both provinces saw a dip in foreign buying activity following the surtax, neither has seen a meaningful and lasting impact on home prices from it so far.
“At some point we need to face the reality that the deterioration of housing affordability has been driven by domestic buyers and domestic policy choices governing housing supply,” said Holt.
– With files from the Canadian Press
Btw doctor, why would anyone trust you with their money knowing you don’t know anything?
Also, wasn’t there a actual doc not too long ago who said he’d have you tested under the Ontario mental health act if you were his patient, for the way you speak to Canadians???
Lol
I still think that gold is an asset worth owning as part of a balanced and diversified portfolio. Nothing wrong with keeping 5% or 10% in bullion. That’s not gambling. Gold does tend to go up over time and is not really correlated with stock prices, so it can reduce volatility. Most central banks (though not the BoC unfortunately) own gold as a reserve asset, so I wouldn’t really call it a “cult asset” unless you think that all central bankers in the world are part of this cult.
Yes, gold is down ~$600 from the peak priced in USD, but in Canadian dollars, it’s very near it’s all time high. And keep in mind that gold in USD went from under $300 in the year 2000 to over $1800 in 2011. It massively out performed stocks during that time. And even despite still being $600 off it’s high in USD, gold is still outperforming the S&P 500 this millennium.
The ship has already sailed in the Hammer.
A 983 sq. Ft. Condo is now $770,000. It was the best kept secret in Southern Ontario for a long time with fabulous Victorian century homes.
Those are $900,000 now.
You can buy in the east end but you have to deal with the hookers.
As for you putting down $25,000 and her putting down nothing that should tell you all you need to know.
Run, don’t walk.
# 15 April ..re Ross Kay..an expert on RE ..I’ve listened to this dude on Howe Street.com. and I know a little about RE but I sure have difficulty following his line of reasoning at times. Am I the only one? I find Steve Saretsky on that site (sorry Garth) has a much better understanding of what’s happening with the RE market particularly in the lower mainland. And no I’m not married to him..:) And no Garth I won’t talk about gold today …even though….Forget it!! Sherri in Salmon Arm..
#34 “There are over 30 million Canadians who have spent Trillions over the past few years. How much of that was spent buying a house in TO? virtually nothing.”
Say “trillions” means 3 of ’em, then the average Canadian spent 100,000 dollars in the past few years. Given average savings rates, that means most of that must be by way of mortgage. Clearly, a sizable chunk of that was spent in the GTA, check the stats.
A very small amount of good quality gold and more so silver coins held in non bank private storage is a good idea
Maybe 2-3%. The rest is in a basket of quality gold and PM royalty companies
If you choose to add 5-10 % in PMs most of that exposure should be in royalty companies if you have the risk for it
Those who think they can own a huge amount of coins and bars and junk lotto tickets and sell during doomsday and laugh while the world burns are sorely mistaken
The govt has other plans for people who invest mostly or largely in PMs
But for a small amount mostly in royalty companies it’s a smart idea for the right investor
#42 Sherri
You aren’t the only one who wonders what Ross Kay is on about most of the time. There’s no question he ‘sounds’ authoritative, but apparently, he walks a fine line between informing Howe Street listeners and giving away proprietary information that his clients pay for.
He has a slow, condescending ‘better-listen-to-dad’ tone that I find off putting and seems to be making at least some of it up as he goes along.
But hey, don’t listen to me. I’m no ‘real estate expert’. I know only what greater fool has taught me over the years.
https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/20770287/3-bedroom-single-family-house-36-brillinger-st-richmond-hill-north-richvale
This house sold in a week for above ask. Yonge corridor west side , Richmond Hill. At peak in 2017 would have sold for about the same.
What was that about RH being hit hard and down and out lol.
By now or pay much more later
in the us market you have a large amount of variety of investments that most canadians dont have access too or cant due to regulations and tax issues
but investment companies, munies, etc and most importantly growth stocks in like cloud etc are non existent in canada.
getting a balanced and diversified porfolio to make 6 or 7 percent a year is low, by us comparison,
the whole system in canada is bad, you work a whole lifetime for a major corporation and get 3300 a month canadian and taxable, man thats sad.
returns in canada are low, buy slack tomorrow,
are the millennials losing their minds right now with their celery and kale shakes? crazy celery prices and the Trudeau downpayment scam sure ain’t gonna help them buy a house in GTA either lol….
Just date and rent. Then if it so happens, get married. Then if it so happens, have a child. THEN buy real estate.
#94 Mattl on 06.19.19 at 10:15 am
It wasn’t really an own vs rent analysis I was trying to do there. I was merely pointing out that selling a house for 500k 14 years after buying it for 200k wasn’t the sellers being “greedy idiots” like Calgary Rip Off stated, but merely sellers trying to recoup their costs. I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect a seller to sell for less than the costs they’ve incurred.
I own. I agree with you.
I’m not picking a side in the own gold or not debate. But the yellow dog woke up and started howling tonight. No idea why. It’s over 1380 right now. Maybe the big “D” in Germany is finally giving up the ghost. If it is that will be a game changer.
#36 – anecdotes? Ross Kay?
#9 Millenial CTO on 06.19.19 at 4:36 pm
You want to know my thoughts?
OK. Garth doesn’t know what he’s talking about.
#45 – I too find Ross Kay somewhat annoying to listen but he has the facts which can be checked out if one is so interested. Some times some of us don’t want to hear the truth.
In reply to #38
>Your “researcher” should do more research before making his hypothesis. (Complete article follows)
__________________________________
That article from 2 years ago doesn’t really refute the article I linked in any way. Did you read it? You need to cut paste the link because this comment thread cuts the hyperlink mid-way.
http://www.sfu.ca/content/dam/sfu/mpp/WorkingPaperSeries/Solving%20Wozny%27s%20puzzle%20on%20decoupling%20and%20housing%202019%20Gordon%20(1).pdf?fbclid=IwAR0jrpyViV9qCD05dSNJv92gWDv82CsCWSfJSmm7sjX67iRCT_4PKHlpJ8I
“..it’s metal, not money. You can’t buy anything with gold…”
I’m not a goldbug, but I have to say, under current law, you can buy _dollars_ with gold.
Nope. You sell it for dollars. Gold is not a medium of exchange. – Garth
Commute your pension or take it monthly?
Interesting, but ultimately trivial.
If, IF, we survive the upcoming wars with Iran, China and Russia, the planet will be almost empty within a very short time. Pensions and investments will mean nothing.
The global climate catastrophe is upon us now, with the spring heat everywhere.
In Chennai, humans have already been weeks without water, and it is getting worse.
https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/politics/a28102591/india-drought-chennai-climate-change-five-years-transform/
This article and its links demonstrate that we barely have five years to change course.
There is no way that will happen.
We are doomed. The masses will perish.
Except those few who implement their plans now.
Commute your pension, by all means. Use the money to buy land in remote areas at higher altitudes. Store food water and fuel and electricity. Do it now. In the time ahead there will be a desperate rush by others doing the same and prices will climb bigly.
PREPARE.
#48 Celery is $7 in Toronto?
You can buy $7 organic celery now or more expensive drugs at the pharmacy later.
Celery tastes better and less chance to kill you.
#16 SoggyShorts on 06.19.19 at 5:03 pm
Gotcha. The main thing I wanted to highlight was the insane increase in real estate in the lower mainland compared to the normal inflation on other items. What I was able to afford with an average salary (my own) back then for basically a starter home now requires the salary of a 1%er at historically low interest rates. It’s totally bizarre and cannot end well.
Phil, just tell her you think a house would be a better joint venture down the road when you are both ready to commit for life.
If she starts doing backflips and threatens to break up with you, accept happily with the knowledge that you’ve just dodged a bullet.
When someone shows you who they really are, believe ’em.
@Phil
Run, dont walk, from this girlfriend.
I was in a similar situation years ago.
Only I had the down payment $$$ and she was the one pushing for “property”…which, in her eyes, equated to “commitment”.
Its cost me thousands to get out of it when she decided six months later to “end our relationship” but not move out…..
“Why should I leave? My name is on the title. I want you to leave…..”
“Ok, lets sell and divide the profit.”
“I dont want to move”
“Ok then buy me out.”
“I cant afford to buy you out”.
The result?
Since I couldn’t afford to pay a mortgage AND rent……
Nothing better than listening to your “ex” having horizontal gymnastics in your former bedroom…..
Awesome.
Do NOT.
I repeat.
DO NOT buy a house in a falling market with a GF ( not wife?) that can walk from the relationship on a whim .
If one of you can “leave” the relationship at the drop of a hat ……but not the dual ownership property…..leaving YOU years of legal fees to finally split the assets…..if things turn ugly.
Which is almost a garantee.
And the property dropped in value as the lawyer fees dragged on….
The eventual outcome after several years of stonewalling? After the sale and legal fees?
I broke even.
Awesome.
It was, however, a very cheap lesson in the long run as I’m sure a great many divorced people can agree.
Find another GF (not wife?).
Much cheaper.
OR if you are hopelessly smitten and cant imagine life without the GF ( not wife?) have a legal agreement written up that if you both split……
Shotgun agreement.
One must buy the other out at fair market value ( 5 realtors give their assessment and comparables from the neighborhood) within 30 days ( so you can avoid sleepless nights)
OR
The property must immediately go up for sale.
And you both move out.
If she refuses to sign the legal agreement..
And you still buy…….
Dont come whining here.
@#12 Flop
“Nah Phil, you aren’t falling for the trap.
You’re already in the trap brother.
Venus Fly Trap…”
+++++
Good one… :)
@#13 Dolce
” laying down with a friend in Piazza San Marco and using crumbs to attract pigeons while posing for snapshots with a dildo protruding from your jeans….
*****
I just choked on my drink…… Salute!
Uh Phil? Run. Away. Quickly.
And don’t look back.
My favourite gold holding
https://www.google.com/search?q=credit+card+size+gold+wafer
#21 Dolce Vita on 06.19.19 at 5:26 pm
Off topic…but there are days you just wonder (translation: a WTF moment for you Millennials).
On the train into Venezia early this AM I read that PM Trudeau et. al. approved the TML pipeline expansion and that yesterday Canada declared a Climate Emergency. Well, 1/2 not bad.
Elizabeth May, ditto Burnaby.
————————————-
It’s very simple
//////////////::::::::://///////////
Yes, simple.
The Pipeline is going right through the middle of children’s School Playground.
Stand for something, as long as it is not The Child-Man fancy socks, Double standard.
Climate emergency, and , oh, let’s ram a pipeline through a city and school yard.
And here comes Chief Dad of Jody Reybold…… Yaayas
https://globalnews.ca/news/5406962/ontaro-health-jobs-layoffs/?utm_source=%40globalnewsto&utm_medium=Twitter
Ford government lays off more than 400 workers at Ontario health agencies Wednesday.
Gordon Campbell gave him advice on how to cut? I think Ontario will see more cuts based on what happened to BC. How will that help the housing market?
#14 Shawn Allen on 06.19.19 at 4:53 pm
The spouse will get a survivor pension if you croak. Children will inherit nothing from a pension once both are passed away. And why would they ever expect to?
******************
If the remaining spouse has a pension and passes early into the pension years, children can and DO inherit their parent’s pension in certain circumstances.
I keep a healthy stash of Maples around. Why not? They come in handy in good times. I know, counterintuitive. In hard times the working man is hungry. No need for cash. They’ll take checks, pay U.I., C.P.P. taxes. Paper trail is just fine. Expenses are deductions for me. Great.
Now when its good times the boys are a little more choosy. The wife’s grinding em to take a weekend off. Too much overtime. Tensions on the homefront. I gotta jingle that dull clunky sound to pry quality tradesmen away. A few Maples is a 5 days inclusive
at some fancy hotel in Mexico where the kids can swim their brains out. The wife & old man can sit around the pool bar. When the winter rains comes, happy wife that has her secret stash of Maples for a getaway.
The other time gold is good is if there’s a currency collapse, a la Venezuela. Still,there’s a lot more priorities on your list before gold, if your a prepper.
There’s no doubt that this system of immense deficits & digital unbacked money will collapse & metals will reassert themselves as they have ever since man emerged from the stone age. Trouble is, we’ll most likely be dead by then.
I agree with the folks who are urging caution and further thought before jumping into buying a house right off the start of living together. I sensed some red flags when I read this post.
“My girlfriend and I would really like to start living together (likely in Hamilton) but she is quite adamant about owning…”
So does this mean that if you rent instead of buy, your girlfriend would not be interested in living with you? Does owning a house have greater priority over being together with you day and night? If so, you may want to determine your girlfriend’s priorities before you make this financial committment.
“…despite our differing opinion I definitely see a future with this girl…”
But does she see a long-term future with you? Have you discussed this aspect? Is her emotional committment to you and building a life together based on owning a home? If the relationship has greater importance, then wouldn’t being together be the first actions to take regardless of whether you rent or buy?
Financial stress is one of the biggest factors in the destruction of a relationship. Divorce lawyers and personal insolvency trustees will attest to that. While marriage is no guarantee these days that a relationship will last, it is easier for one side to walk away when there are no legal or spiritual vows. Rushing into a marriage and rushing into home ownership both bring risks.
Gold doesn’t suck because it doesn’t pay interest or dividends – total return is the only thing that matters (just because a stock doesn’t pay dividends doesn’t mean it’s a poor investment), gold sucks because it just doesn’t perform well over time.
Re: #20 david on 06.19.19 at 5:26 pm
The money is likely in an insurance company not with GM so if the insurance company goes bankrupt there goes his money not if GM goes bankrupt.
What the world needs today is more cow bells!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QWLBtMz5OuY
Re: #1 Dave on 06.19.19 at 4:08 pm
Peter Shiff states on youtube the Fed is preparing for a July rate cut. That doesn’t mean he’s right but Peter has a good track record of being correct.
#13 Dolce Vita on 06.19.19 at 4:50 pm
Speaking about advice and Venezia, Venetians getting upset at tourist antics of late such as:
1. laying down with a friend in Piazza San Marco and using crumbs to attract pigeons while posing for snapshots with a dildo protruding from your jeans, OR
2. take a bath in the water with a friend in front of Piazza San Marco at a Gondola berth as the Gondola is rowing in and feigning “you were unaware this was not allowed”.
…the list goes on.
VENEZIA – The NEW Fines Part (a heads up for all you exhibitionists and extreme party goers):
1. € 350 for those who dirty public places in any way (they clean Venezia completely at the crack of dawn every day circa 6 AM only to have to start all over again next AM).
2. € 250 on those who walk around the city bare-chested or in public transport (Venezia is not the beach nor is it a beach town).
3. € 350 alcoholic tours or bachelor parties undermining urban security.
Thank municipal councilor Giorgio D’Este for the above “urban decorum”. Looks like the Venetians have had enough. It’s about time.
——————————————–
Hey, similar to North American rules 100 years ago!
Somehow my post on gold did not make it here (not a gold pumper, just observer of facts). I think it deserves fair coverage like everything else on this blog.
—————————————————
#16 SoggyShorts on 06.19.19 at 5:03 pm
Toronto alone accounts for over 20 % of the GDP.
Indebtedness is common for all of Ontario, all of Canada.
GTA + BC are the most recognizable poster children of the housing bubble, but price of groceries, veggies and fruits (over 16 % rise according to stats Canada in one year, imagine what the real number is…, services,….) are consumed by everyone.
What you say about your expenses not varying above 2 % despite inflation is either untrue, lacking precise calculations or you are aggressively cutting on spending, focusing on substitution with lower quality products/services.
——————————————-
Thoroughly unconvincing and tinged with emotionalism. – Garth
Shawn Allen sounds like the 40 years old virgin, he is so naive. Maybe we need some sort of social/how women’s mind works professional advice.
Do we need couple’s counseling/sex ed/intro to society section of this blog?
James on 06.19.19 at 12:20 pm
#72 Smoking Man on 06.19.19 at 1:17 am
Trump Nails it in Orlando.
Not only will he win the electoral college he will win the popular vote in 2020.
The left has become totally unhinged. Insanity on display daily, broadcast live by MSM.
These idiots think social media put trump in the White House.
Wrong…
It was when the left and there partners MSM wanted to normalized allowing creepy men in our wives and daughters bathrooms.
Dr Smoking Man
PhD Herdonomics.
__________________________________________
Hey Old Man WTF is wrong with you? Trump nailed nothing check the facts.
http://fortune.com/2019/06/18/trump-speech-orlando-rally-fact-check/
https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/orlando-sentinel-not-donald-trump_n_5d09033fe4b0f7b744275aae
BTW The only creepy thing I’ve seen is your pool videos coveting young girls that are even younger than me and I’m only 33. You sit in a pool and video young girls on your phone? Now that is creepy.
……
You’re suffering from Smoking Man Derangement syndrome.
You’re a freek show libtard. Prove what your accusing me of, share a link.
And if you nail me. I dont care. I’m a straight white horny male suffering from toxic masculinity who is not ashamed of being me.
I Resently found God , he likes me.. It really makes your kind go nuts.
I’ll be in Toronto this weekend , if you feel compelled to murder me , I’ll be at south side Johnees on Saturday night..
I miss Shlong Branch
Hi Garth,
The Canadian dollar is currency, and Gold is money.
You are right that gold does not serve as a medium of exchange, even if a .99999 1oz maple has a legal tender stamp of $200 on it while a .9999 1oz coin is stamped for $50.
Gold however, is an asset. And more importantly it is an asset with no counter party liabilities – it is not someone else’s debt (unless you loan it out).
Most people have never seen Gold in person as bullion or coins, much less held it in their hands (I highly recommend that people try holding a gold coin, there is something special about that heft and color).
But I have to say now that if you don’t have some gold in your portfolio today, preferably via some mining stocks, then you will be missing out on the next run of this still-intact bull.
With gold breaching $1360, the target for the short medium term is $1500 USD, and today’s CAD price is $1828 (if you were a buyer back around 2013/2014 at $1300CAD you are doing quite well).
The price has been rising strongly from $1260 a few weeks back now, and it is not finished either – likely just starting again.
Bond yields are telling us that there is a recession at the door. Gold is telling us that there is mistrust in central planning and that the fear of counterparty risk is rising.
The price of gold will continue to rise until the shoe shine boy, and your average millenial begin to pile on to take this young bull market to a bubble, at which point it will be time to rotate into another unloved asset as gold has been from 2011 to 2016.
But until then, add some gold to your portfolio.
DELETED
DELETED
Gold nearing $1400.
I’m not a gold bug but the miners are ridiculously, absurdly undervalued here. Many are cheaper than they were when gold was under $1200.
Puff Daddy Poloz, OMG, LMAO !!
https://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/canadian-inflation-surges-as-core-rate-hits-highest-since-2012
Setting up the manufacturers recession of the current generation. If the guy holding on to his house is the 30 year work a day genius he writes about then he’ll likely be selling into a tsunami of laid off workers selling at the same time, timberrrrrrr.
Good thing Prince Fop-ulous Trudeau has no economics experience and zero quality in his cabinet. Too bad for the special interests that rely solely on Trudeau welfare for the votes they’ll need to stay in thier ridings until the pension matures.
It ain’t gonna happen if Poloz goes the wrong way on rates when Trump forces them down in the US. House guy shouldn’t bet on Trudeau being around to take the flak. I’d say the wrong headed Poloz and any Liberals left over when Canada’s inevitable recession hits , likely only disguised by the ever truthful media, there will be calls for lynchings.
Iran is shooting down American planes this morning.
https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/20/middleeast/iran-drone-claim-hnk-intl/index.html
Think this won’t escalate?
You’re dreaming.
PREPARE
#41 Reality is stark on 06.19.19 at 7:13 pm
The ship has already sailed in the Hammer.
A 983 sq. Ft. Condo is now $770,000.
—————————————-
2b/2b 1150 sq ft condo downtown Hamilton for $485,000.
https://www.zolo.ca/hamilton-real-estate/66-bay-street-south/105
Will be still be able to use Middle East Oil if it glows in the dark?
Or will the world buy refined Bitumen?
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-iran-usa/iran-shoots-down-u-s-military-drone-in-gulf-region-idUSKCN1TL07P
Cadet Bone Spurs has his first real fight….
debt does have consequences, even for govt/country.
Central Bankers now ready to drop rates, add stimulus. Fiscal conservatives lost the battle a LONG LONG time ago. RIP.
GLD to break $130 today. Been under this level for nearly 6 yrs. Breakout day…..:)
Wow. Only $600 an ounce less than eight years ago. You guys are on a roll. – Garth
Toronto commute times are now 42 minutes each way on average. And that’s for people actually in the city, not the GTAholes wasting half their lives stuck in traffic from Milton and Witlessby.
https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2019/06/20/toronto-commute-times-have-risen-8-per-cent-since-2013-poll-finds.html
The potholes, the crumbling infrastructure, the unwillingness of the province and city council to raise taxes to build proper transit in a timely manner……sigh.
This is why Toronto circles the drain as a place where locals never get a chance to see their own city or experience the few interesting things there are to do there.
A swampland of imprisoned wage slaves, deluding themselves that the value of their slanty semis and glass walled condos will go up and make everything better.
Toronturds continue to waste the only thing that really matters in life. Time.
Be smart. Get out of that dump while you still can.
Get a life, losers.
Hindsight is 20/20 I suppose but after 14 years of collecting our pensions, we’ve been happy we didn’t commute. Both our plans are solid, and the pensions give us security. As well, I get subsidized health care (prescriptions and semi-private hospital coverage.)
14 years ago we simply did not have a financial advisor we felt we could trust as much as the plans’ administrations.
(We do now – but Turner Investments wasn’t around back then.)
Both my wife and I believe we have gotten our money’s worth out of our pensions. As for our savings, we get our money’s worth out of Garth, Doug, Ryan et al.
#16 SoggyShorts on 06.19.19 at 5:03 pm
#62 Ronaldo on 06.18.19 at 11:47 pm
#37 SoggyShorts on 06.18.19 at 7:08 pm
#1 Stan Brooks on 06.18.19 at 4:23 pm
#113 Ronaldo on 06.18.19 at 11:24 am
et al…
This just in from the stirring the pot department, it’s an interesting perspective on the topic and experiencing the same thing differently…
https://nationalpost.com/opinion/millions-of-canadians-arent-as-well-off-as-andrew-coyne-thinks
#78 domain on 06.20.19 at 2:00 am
Gold however, is an asset.
Most people have never seen Gold in person as bullion or coins, much less held it in their hands (I highly recommend that people try holding a gold coin, there is something special about that heft and color).
——————————————————
Boom! You just hit the nail on the head. I want my assets to make me money, not sit around and be fawned upon like a painting, another speculative “investment” which at least can be hung on a wall and be appreciated for more then its shine…
>>> “..it’s metal, not money. You can’t buy anything with gold…”
>>> I’m not a goldbug, but I have to say, under current law, you can buy _dollars_ with gold.
>>>>>> Nope. You sell it for dollars. Gold is not a medium of exchange. – Garth
>>>>>>>>>>>> In the Forex (currency) market, gold is a form of currency. It can only be traded against the USD though. – Yanniel
When I can buy gas for my Hummer with bullion, it’ll be money. Until then, nah. – Garth
#87 50 YEARS OF MAPLE LEAF INCOMPETENCE!
This is why Toronto circles the drain as a place where locals never get a chance to see their own city or experience the few interesting things there are to do there.
——————————————————————–
But they have the Raptors. And the Leafs. And the Jays. And the FC. And the Argos. And diversity.
Have you seen the new Toronto tourism ad?
Who put that lame piece of crap together anyway?
Looks like a hack project by some after school grade 6 audio visual arts class.
Brutal.
#88 Almontage
Hindsight is 20/20 I suppose but after 14 years of collecting our pensions, we’ve been happy we didn’t commute. Both our plans are solid, and the pensions give us security.
——————————————————————-
Were you a GM employee?
Jonathan was.
GM is a dinosaur. It will disappear before his pension gets paid out.
An about-to-be defunct company.
Building heaps today. Building nothing tomorrow.
https://web.tmxmoney.com/quote.php?qm_symbol=Cp
I wanna be a cowboy baby, especially when stocks like CP triple, and pay me a dividend. Why did I pay $85 dollars a few years ago when analysts swore the company was trading in nosebleed territory and railways were a dinosaur industry?
Two words, Hunter Harrison, the Elon Musk of railway systems design. Yes, the analysts had a point, railway mgmt was antiquated, ossified, but I listened to Harrison. He was visionary. If you find a mgmt team that focused you should be a buyer.
Takes time and focus. I can go months without finding a new growth stock to buy. At such times I just keep adding income to income generators. But when these super stocks break out, they break out.
This is the Phil from above:
Much thanks for all the harsh truths everybody. I needed reaffirmation of my instincts from smarter people than I. Assuming that’s what all of you are…
She has agreed to renting, at least for the short-term. Let’s see what education I can give her in that time.
Sincerely,
The Phil
#121 PastThePeak on 06.19.19 at 3:19 pm
You set up a good example of how, in general, SJW + government can impede solutions. With such an aging population & less workers to pay/support, there is a huge market opportunity for entrepreneurs / companies to come up with product + service solutions. This could range from personal products for health, to robot support, to more sustainable long-term care facilities…
____
I agree there will be opportunity in these areas related to the elderly. Ultimately though, the BIG problem will be revenues in sufficient qty to maintain the social services as we currently know them. Too much cost, not enough earn. Immigration numbers and age demographics will continue to have a huge impact on our economy, and society at large.
The first “post national state” – T2 may be right. Not a good environment to build unity or culture. A population united only via earning a wage, with no identity. We could cut military spending by 100%, as surely no one would be volunteering to defend the place. I think demoting a Nation to a patch of dirt will also wreak havoc with Immigration and retention. Who wants to risk it all to move to a soulless work colony?
Who is going to pay top dollar to be a “Canadian”? If 50% of the population has dual Citizenship – couldn’t the disgruntled over taxed just leave?
Buckle your seat belts Mills and Z’s.
” #19 Moh on 06.19.19 at 5:17 pm ”
I strongly recommend not buying in Brampton. Worked in the insurance industry long time. No thank you. Anywhere else ok, but not there.
#89 Remembrancer on 06.20.19 at 8:54 am
Yep. Which reminds me of a story about a guy who is working for minimum wage and asks his multi-millionaire boss for a raise because price of food has gone up quite a bit. The boss replies, “I see what you eat, you don’t need a raise”.
The biggest problem today is that most people at the bottom end of the scale’s income is being sucked up by mortgage payments and high rents so there is little money left over for anything else. Even small increases in cost of groceries and other services hits them hard.
When I hear my own wife complaining about the cost of groceries going up I have to say to her, “if you think we have it bad, just think how it affects people who are not making over $100,000/yr in income” who are struggling just to pay their rent and paying daycare and working three jobs just to put food on the table. We tend to forget that.
Gee,
Perhaps the “Jobs numbers” spewed out by the Liberals arent so great after all.
https://ca.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idCAKCN1TL1HW-OCABS
Sounds to me like the housing sales slow down is starting to take effect.
Lets see what June 2020 brings…..
#50 ImGonnaBeSick on 06.19.19 at 9:22 pm
#94 Mattl on 06.19.19 at 10:15 am
It wasn’t really an own vs rent analysis I was trying to do there. I was merely pointing out that selling a house for 500k 14 years after buying it for 200k wasn’t the sellers being “greedy idiots” like Calgary Rip Off stated, but merely sellers trying to recoup their costs. I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect a seller to sell for less than the costs they’ve incurred.
I own. I agree with you.
————————————————————
Gotcha. Agree that the greedy seller narrative is strange, selling a widely available asset at market price should never be considered greedy.
Garth wrote a post the other day titled Trump’s crash.
I misread at first, my mind read Trump’s rash.
I didn’t know if he was talking about his rash behaviour or his extra curricular activities with porn stars.
Itchy, itchy, bighty, bighty…
M44BC
“In One Chart: A Decade of the U.S. Trade Deficit with China
Since 2010, the United States and China have had the world’s largest economies by GDP. But one interesting difference is that the U.S. is the world’s biggest importer while China is the world’s biggest exporter. The U.S. is currently China’s biggest trade partner, but recent talks about tariffs have highlighted the imbalance of imports and exports between the two countries. As economic tensions continue to rise, here is a look at how the trade deficit between the U.S. and China has changed over the past ten years.
Every year from 2009 to 2018, the U.S. has imported more goods from China than it exported to China.
Over the past ten years, the trade deficit has almost doubled.
For every year except 2016, the total volume of trade between the two countries has steadily increased.
Percentage-wise and in gross numbers, the trade deficit grew the most between 2009 and 2010, during the Great Recession.
This visualization is based on the U.S. Census Bureau’s International Trade Data, which provides monthly reporting of the nominal value of imports and exports between the U.S. and China. In the visualization itself, the blue boxes represent the value of exports from the U.S. to China, while the pink boxes represent the value of imports from China to the U.S. The gray boxes with the negative number at the end represent the deficit, which is calculated by subtracting the exports from the imports. Each box in the visualization represents $10 billion. All values are expressed in USD, and these numbers have not been adjusted for inflation.
U.S. Deficit From 2009 to 2018
2009: $227B
2010: $273B
2011: $295B
2012: $315B
2013: $318B
2014: $344B
2015: $367B
2016: $347B
2017: $375B
2018: $420B
With the ongoing trade war, both the U.S. and China are levying tariffs on imports of each other’s products. For U.S. consumers, this means that certain products manufactured in China are now more expensive to buy. The intention is to deter consumers from buying products made in China. The tariffs have affected products including consumer items, medical equipment, and agricultural products like soybeans. Despite these tariffs going into effect on both sides in late 2018, imports from China increased and exports from the U.S. decreased that year. With the G20 summit coming up later this month, President Trump and President Xi Jinping are expected to meet and discuss the current trade situation.”
20 June 2019
Visualization
https://howmuch.net/articles/the-us-trade-deficit-with-china-2009-2018
#100 Mattl on 06.20.19 at 11:08 am
#50 ImGonnaBeSick on 06.19.19 at 9:22 pm
#94 Mattl on 06.19.19 at 10:15 am
Gotcha. Agree that the greedy seller narrative is strange, selling a widely available asset at market price should never be considered greedy.
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B/C its 2019 and you’re a Greedy Seller (at market price) as seen through the green lenses of envy or jealousy… kinda like the kindergarten morality play of “she’s not sharing” meaning she has it, I don’t and I want it… Now!
Everything is great in the world today! The Fed hints at rate cuts to come, and the markets move ever higher. ECB talks further stimulus just because. China as figured this out for awhile, and Japan has been doing it for 2 decades.
It has taken people kind maybe a couple centuries of modern(ish) finance, but they have finally hit upon the magic formula. Keep making the cost of money cheaper, and print more money, and everything will be perfect.
Who would have thought it was so easy.
“When I hear my own wife complaining about the cost of groceries going up I have to say to her, “if you think we have it bad, just think how it affects people who are not making over $100,000/yr in income” who are struggling just to pay their rent and paying daycare and working three jobs just to put food on the table. We tend to forget that.”
Those people tend to shop in the center aisles which leads to higher health care costs over time which they don’t pay for directly.
But yeah, I’m with you. I feel so fortunate to have the money to buy what people in the 1950s would have considered “regular food”. Even if it has gone way up in price I can still get it.
#103 PastThePeak on 06.20.19 at 11:48 am
Everything is great in the world today! The Fed hints at rate cuts to come, and the markets move ever higher. ECB talks further stimulus just because. China as figured this out for awhile, and Japan has been doing it for 2 decades.
It has taken people kind maybe a couple centuries of modern(ish) finance, but they have finally hit upon the magic formula. Keep making the cost of money cheaper, and print more money, and everything will be perfect.
Who would have thought it was so easy.
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Bad news is good news.
Any report suggesting sluggishness, or trade wars, is perceived by the markets to raise the likelihood of a rate cut. Rate cut coming = markets go bonkers = everything is awesome!!
The positive market reaction to BAD news is therefore much greater than the reaction to good news.
The PPT can go on holiday.
#77 Smoking Man on 06.20.19 at 1:43 am
James on 06.19.19 at 12:20 pm
#72 Smoking Man on 06.19.19 at 1:17 am
Trump Nails it in Orlando.
Not only will he win the electoral college he will win the popular vote in 2020.
The left has become totally unhinged. Insanity on display daily, broadcast live by MSM.
These idiots think social media put trump in the White House.
Wrong…
It was when the left and there partners MSM wanted to normalized allowing creepy men in our wives and daughters bathrooms.
Dr Smoking Man
PhD Herdonomics.
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Hey Old Man WTF is wrong with you? Trump nailed nothing check the facts.
http://fortune.com/2019/06/18/trump-speech-orlando-rally-fact-check/
https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/orlando-sentinel-not-donald-trump_n_5d09033fe4b0f7b744275aae
BTW The only creepy thing I’ve seen is your pool videos coveting young girls that are even younger than me and I’m only 33. You sit in a pool and video young girls on your phone? Now that is creepy.
……
You’re suffering from Smoking Man Derangement syndrome.
You’re a freek show libtard. Prove what your accusing me of, share a link.
And if you nail me. I dont care. I’m a straight white horny male suffering from toxic masculinity who is not ashamed of being me.
I Resently found God , he likes me.. It really makes your kind go nuts.
I’ll be in Toronto this weekend , if you feel compelled to murder me , I’ll be at south side Johnees on Saturday night..
I miss Shlong Branch
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Ha, ha, Old Man, your alter-ego Smoking Mans Ghost
@SmokingMan is all over the internet. I have to say at least your famous for what you are. Have you not ever read the comments when your Peri-scoping? It is actually hilarious and could be the next Drunken History program.
BTW Did you check the factoids
#94 The Great Gordonski on 06.20.19 at 10:05 am
https://web.tmxmoney.com/quote.php?qm_symbol=Cp
I wanna be a cowboy baby, especially when stocks like CP triple, and pay me a dividend. Why did I pay $85 dollars a few years ago when analysts swore the company was trading in nosebleed territory and railways were a dinosaur industry?
Two words, Hunter Harrison, the Elon Musk of railway systems design. Yes, the analysts had a point, railway mgmt was antiquated, ossified, but I listened to Harrison. He was visionary. If you find a mgmt team that focused you should be a buyer.
Takes time and focus. I can go months without finding a new growth stock to buy. At such times I just keep adding income to income generators. But when these super stocks break out, they break out.
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Comparing a management team to Elon Musk, as a positive, for a long position, is…. something.
Gotta look at CP as a short now.
Oh baby Oil is up average 4-5 % today what a good day it is. Even Cdn crude averaging 8%. I hate to say it but Dumb dumb Trump has poked a hornets nest and they have stung back. Getting water and horses as I type.
If there ever was a good time to start building a pipeline it is now! Mr Socks is trying to make up just in time for election day but his votes are gone, he has burned too many bridges over these years with the fence sitters and even the millennials.
https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts
#85 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.20.19 at 8:07 am
Will be still be able to use Middle East Oil if it glows in the dark?
Or will the world buy refined Bitumen?
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-iran-usa/iran-shoots-down-u-s-military-drone-in-gulf-region-idUSKCN1TL07P
Cadet Bone Spurs has his first real fight….
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Someone has to fuel those Suburbans for Cadet bone spurs, it might as well be us. Hmmmmm lets re-negotiate the NAFTA agreement after the first volley is fired.
“Man, she must be good. And you already know the answer.”
– Made my morning!
#30
Gold is an Asset Class – nothing more, nothing less!
TCC
And wholly unsuited for ownership by 99% of the population. Stop pumping. – Garth.
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Garth just confirmed that gold is an asset exclusively for the 1% elites and not suitable for the masses in the remaining 99%. Where do you fit in? ;-)
1%ers don’t need to be reckless. – Garth
#61 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.19.19 at 10:13 pm
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I worked with a guy years ago, married 20+ years 3 kids. His wife decides to visit family back in PQ, and ends up bumping uglies with an old flame from high school. She decides to divorce and date this loser who had made nothing of himself.
She had not worked a day in her life, and my co worker (great guy, well accomplished) ended up cutting her a 1/2 million dollar cheque. Them’s the rules.
For all those contemplating any long term romantic relationship in this day and age: DO NOT engage with anyone new to you, who does not make similar money, and have similar assets as you. At least it’ll be about 50/50 if it all goes to hell.
50+% divorce/”break up” rate.
Don’t forget it, Philip.
#79 Smoking Man on 06.20.19 at 2:31 am
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#80 Smoking Man on 06.20.19 at 2:49 am
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Spewing more hate, Smokey? I’m so glad Garth muffles you! Why don’t you go post your hate on The Daily Stormer and leave us alone?
#111 IHCTD9 on 06.20.19 at 1:39 pm
#61 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.19.19 at 10:13 pm
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I worked with a guy years ago, married 20+ years 3 kids. His wife decides to visit family back in PQ, and ends up bumping uglies with an old flame from high school. She decides to divorce and date this loser who had made nothing of himself.
She had not worked a day in her life, and my co worker (great guy, well accomplished) ended up cutting her a 1/2 million dollar cheque. Them’s the rules.
For all those contemplating any long term romantic relationship in this day and age: DO NOT engage with anyone new to you, who does not make similar money, and have similar assets as you. At least it’ll be about 50/50 if it all goes to hell.
50+% divorce/”break up” rate.
Don’t forget it, Philip.
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These stories are always the best. Completely one-sided and the husband is always just the greatest guy taken advantage of by some shrew. Husband never cheated, or was an @sshole. Nope, just a perfect dude blindsided.
So what should be fair? Assuming his wife didn’t work for the first 10 years while they were raising the kids to school-aged, she’s unlikely to get a decent paying job. They likely looked at her working, decided that it wasn’t worth it for the salary she’d earn. That’s generally a joint decision.
So has your friend spent the last 10 years complaining about how his wife refuses to get a job? I’d bet not.
#93 Dharma
Were you a GM employee?
Jonathan was.
GM is a dinosaur. It will disappear before his pension gets paid out.
An about-to-be defunct company.
Building heaps today. Building nothing tomorrow.
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I was not. My pension came from Unilever, now managed by Bill Morneau’s company.
It doesn’t seem that long ago some where playing Natgas, ummm they got slaughtered. Commodity plays can be a real bitch.
Investors on the other hand sit back and rake in dough owning the miners and producers of the underlying asset.
Owning a ETF that tracks the TSX composite index is looking like a sweet deal. No market timing required.
Gold is not an investment – its an insurance policy against government….
It’s not for Joe Blo.
Invest the markets, real estate, etc.
It’s for rich people who want to hand wealth down tax free in a box or bribe the camp guard to escape when they take you..
Its very illiquid unlike an Index ETF or for the most part – stocks.
Not for the average Joe.
But make no mistake it has value regardless of what Garth says.
All assets have value. Passing gold to someone, by the way, is a taxable event. – Garth
#114 Tater on 06.20.19 at 2:00 pm
These stories are always the best. Completely one-sided and the husband is always just the greatest guy taken advantage of by some shrew. Husband never cheated, or was an @sshole. Nope, just a perfect dude blindsided.
So what should be fair? Assuming his wife didn’t work for the first 10 years while they were raising the kids to school-aged, she’s unlikely to get a decent paying job. They likely looked at her working, decided that it wasn’t worth it for the salary she’d earn. That’s generally a joint decision.
So has your friend spent the last 10 years complaining about how his wife refuses to get a job? I’d bet not.
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I think you missed the point of the comment. This wasn’t a tale of woe about a poor schmuck who got creamed in divorce court.
Nor did it speculate on what is fair.
It was a lesson. Take it or leave it. No complaining later because you make your own bed. You’ve got the ability to mitigate the damage right up front. 50/50 chance it burns to the ground. It does not have to go that way. A few base requirements is the best insurance you can get.
You’ll also notice the advice was deliberately dispensed in gender neutral format, as the same thing happens to the breadwinner in the couple no matter what the gender id is.
As for my good bud, he is now retired. He is married again to a Woman quite a bit younger than him who makes 3/5ths of a 6 figure salary, and has a sweet DB Pension. She goes to work 3 days a week, he does a lot of volunteer stuff – and golfing. Have not heard much along the lines of complaining.
Hey Crowdedfartz, that roommate story is terrible man. Sorry about your cuck, I mean luck
So ah… this thing with Trump and Iran is worth a mention. Off topic I know, but anyway…
First, some history. In 1979, Iran nationalized its oil assets. Historically, its the death bell for nations that try this as its counter to capitalism and corporate profits. If a nation can get away with it without provoking a war with the U.S., or a coup, or some kind of hatched CIA plot to overthrow the government bold enough to try it and survive the political blow back, it is a given that the said nation in question nationalizing assets must continue trading Oil in U.S. dollars.
The U.S. has enjoyed being the world’s most stable and widely used currency in the world in part for practical reasons and in part because of U.S. pressure on all other nations to do so, especially when it comes to international trade with oil.
Enter Iran. Iran had expressed moving to to Euro with its oil exports in the Obama era. Obama negotiated a deal with the Iranians to allow nuclear testing (note, if you belong to the list of NPT nations described in the link below, you belong to a special group of nations that have higher security status explained in the link below):
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_nuclear_weapons
The U.S., Europe and all concerned nations were on board with Iran continuing nuclear testing. Iran was free to research nuclear power and look for breakthroughs on its own. The deal made was that the U.S. allows testing so long as Iran continues to use the U.S. dollar as an oil export currency. Trump became elected, blew up the deal, Iran began using the Euro and U.S. sanction power that has traditionally kept rogue nations in their place now no longer has an effect with Iran. All the U.S. can do now is request (or force through sanctions) their allies to not buy Iranian oil.
Iran has been trading oil with the Euro for what is it, a year now? Telling or forcing other nations to boycott Iranian oil can only go so far so what is Trumps options now or what have they always been as decisions like this are not made likely. The war with Iraq was against a dictator with an appalling human rights record with a somewhat divided nation of 28 million. Iran boasts 80 million far more solidified with language and religion. There will be no Kurds to sell off resources and thus, no “coalition of the willing”. Most of the nation is mountainous giving the home team a tremendous advantage against military and air force strikes. There is no commodity prize here save a temporary run up of oil prices and possible world wide shortage as an outcome setting up a commodity boom and bust.
The cost of such a war, the tactical challenges, the very real possibility of failure to accomplish anything meaningful, the very motive itself, to go to war for money (or in Trumps motive, to spin the U.S. into recession, to economically weaken and distract and co-ordinate a pullout from NATO leaving the door open to expand Russian borders, traitor is as traitor does and finally to keep himself in power, to try to win an election or delay an election or its results…). Simply put, a war with Iran makes no sense unless you are a president who does not have America’s best interests at heart.
Finally, there is the unsettling truth that nations like China and Russia will follow the path of Iran and break free from the dollar and its sanction ball and chains. Imagine what this will do to the strength of the dollar. I always thought Japan would be the first currency in free fall, the numbers, the demographics; but it matters who you owe, money velocity matters, confidence matters…
The U.S. isn’t in a good place right now. Their markets are strong, their people are employed and on the surface everything looks good but their economic growth is borrowed, their leadership from the executive branch is the weakest and most corrupt I’ve witnessed, worse than Nixon, likely the worst in history. But then, we’ve never had a traitor as a president before, it has yet to run its course and the cost I fear, will be extreme.
I just wanted to add some needed color to the background noise while I have time today:
https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/20/politics/us-iran-drone-shooting-risk/index.html
Enjoy your weekend everyone.
money IS gold…
and nothing else.
Amen Tater. My wife is stay at home, and thank god for that. If we ever split she would have a hard time rentering the workforce – she has earned every penny taking primary care of our family while I travel for work chasing bigger pay days.
50/50 makes sense at lower tax brackets and with low stress jobs but stay at home / part time mom is a luxury for anyone that can afford it, has a willing wife, and has a job that requires someone to hold down the fort.
@#114 Tater
“These stories are always the best. Completely one-sided and the husband is always just the greatest guy taken advantage of by some shrew. Husband never cheated, or was an @sshole. Nope, just a perfect dude blindsided.”
+++++
I get it .
All men bad.
All women good.
Gotcha.
Nope.
I’m not perfect.
But I’m also not a screamer, beater, excessive drinker, pot smoker, gambler, lazy a-hole, etc.
And I’m sure having her name on the deed had nothing to do with our relationship moving forward.
Less than 6 months after being hounded into buying the property.
“I want out of the relationship” ( but not out of being a property owner).
Like I said before .
I dodged a HUGE financial bullet 30 years ago.
Let her skin someone else alive.
And from what I hear.
She did.
Big time.
Just glad it wasnt me.
:)
My 2 cents…
Anyone that buys property with a “friend” is setting themselves up for a nasty nasty financial ride.
Take it anyway you want.
I really dont care.
#122 Mattl on 06.20.19 at 3:39 pm
My wife is stay at home, and thank god for that. If we ever split she would have a hard time rentering the workforce – she has earned every penny taking primary care of our family while I travel for work chasing bigger pay days.
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This is a pretty standard line about SAHM’s, but not too real these days unless they’re homeschooling or something.
The reality is that once the kids are in SK – they’re gone all day, 5 days a week.
Ms. IH worked full time then took 14 months Mat. leave off for each kid, then worked part time till the kiddies were in SK, then back to “full time”.
I hate to sound rude, but your wife was not doing much full time mothering to your kids during working hours at all once they turned 6 years old.
Passing gold to someone, by the way, is a taxable event. – Garth
Even passing gold ring is a taxable event. Sometimes crippling.
Yeah, boomers got rich by renting. To other people.
Why you call this so called city, Toronto. International name is Turdonto. Like certain people in this world call Peking, Beijing. Certain people who’s time is up.
#107 Tater, Hunter Harrison was a far better manager than Musk is today. Musk has his claim, but Harrison changed railways as much as Elon changed electric cars. Harrison in his own way , was a genius. R.I.P.
Please do short CP, and vote Trudeau while you’re at it.
What is a C.V.?