Suck, blow, fail

Remember Generation Squeeze? The needy little moister org is demanding a host of things from government, including cheap day care, transit subsidies and student loan forgiveness as well as a wealth tax on Boomer real estate, so fairness may be restored to the nation. Yeah, fat chance. But they do have the attention of the troubled Trudeau Libs.

Government’s involvement in the housing market has been an unmitigated disaster. Suck and blow. On one hand governments encourage real estate investing and on the other crush it. We have two reports.

First, the suck.

The shared-equity mortgage was announced back in March as a Shiny New Thing in the federal budget. The idea was rad – the government will take over part of your mortgage, so monthly payments will be lower and you have more cash flow for weed, tats and slow fashionwear. It was the Trudeau response to Millennial angst in not being able to afford a condo in Van or a rental in downtown Toronto.

But the program, it turns out, is a sham.

When details were announced this week by minister Jean-Yves Duclos (me neither) it became apparent this is going to help nobody get a house, while increasing costs for lenders, government and taxpayers. The program comes into effect September 2nd and is supposed to put a hundred thousand Mills into real estate – which would certainly have a market-humping effect.

However, any smart kid will steer clear. First, the 5%  Justin-mortgage-helper limits the borrowed amount to four times the income of the borrower ($120,000 or less), which is less than the banks now offer every day. The formula also limits the purchase price to around $500,000, which buys a nice garage in Kits. But the worst aspect of this plan is the pay-back.

Once a borrower signs on for a shared-equity mortgage they’re obligated to share any gain with the feds after 25 years, or when the property’s sold. Since the purchase price is low, odds are the kids are buying fixer-uppers and will pour a lot of extra cash into renos over the next few years. Add in any market appreciation, and you can see the problem. A 5% helping hand on the original low purchase price can turn into a big cheque to Ottawa upon the sale a decade or two later – coming right out of the tax-free principal residence capital gains exemption.

Now, why would anyone sign on for that? And yet will federal advertising for this program – leading up to a vote in which the Libs desperately need the moisters – help create more demand and fuel prices, just as mortgage rates drop?

The best thing politicians can do is stand back and left Mr. Market figure it out.

And BC gives us the best example of that. Things there are being blown to bits.

Almost two-thirds of people in metro Vancouver (the actual number is 64%) own real estate. That’s pretty close to the national average, suggesting people there have dealt for years with a premium on the cost of housing. We also know BC has a negative savings rate – evidence citizens have been willing to trade liquid wealth for the privilege of having a roof of their own.

But people also elected the NDP, which views real estate wealth as ill-gotten, elitist and worthy of destruction. As a result there’s a plethora of anti-property taxes now in place which have crushed  sales and crashed prices. Of course as values fall more, buyers retreat further. So rather than encouraging a healthy market the Dippers artificially depress it. No sane person would now jump in, given that the bottom is nowhere in sight.

A constructions material company president, writing in the local MSM the other day had some valid points to make. Naturally he’s out to protect his own interests (aren’t we all?), but facts are facts. And these puppies are ugly.

  • Lost real estate equity (in one year) after Comrade Horgan became premier: $90 billion.
  • Amount of annual total local economic output this represents: 65%.
  • Loss per each resident of metro Vancouver: $40,000.
  • Number of proposed housing units postponed because of the downturn: 5,000

If Canadians ever need a concrete example of how taxes erase public wealth, rob an economy and yet provide no social benefit, here she be. The BC market was rolling over before the anti-Liberal vote that installed a self-proclaimed Green-NDP coalition junta. Sales were declining steadily and prices moderating. As average prices exceeded the ability of average families, a correction was inevitable. But, instead, a bunch of amateurs took the wheel and headed straight for the ditch.

Politicians may be well-meaning blowhard crusaders, or just opportunistic vote-sucking narcissists, but the best thing they can do when it comes to real estate is stand aside. The worst thing is to listen to the kids.

128 comments ↓

#1 Stan Brooks on 06.18.19 at 4:23 pm

#113 Ronaldo on 06.18.19 at 11:24 am

————————————————————-
Ok Stan, here is a question for you. 50 years ago (1969) a million dollars could purchase 100 homes in British Properties in West Vancouver. Today that same million would only get you 1/5th of that same home.

What percentage of purchasing power has been lost in those 5 decades?

99.80 %?
10 k house vs $ 5 million house.

12.5 % annual inflation.
An indication of how worthless the Poloz’s peso is.

How much was the CPI in these years? sub 2 %?
Sure. Lies, blatant lies, statistics.

#2 Deborah Driscolle on 06.18.19 at 4:25 pm

Some great real estate for cheap prices in Rural Canada. You just never know if you’ll be able to sell it though.

#3 Frank Cassey on 06.18.19 at 4:26 pm

Real estate is doomed. Canada will become Japanada. They are getting desperate and low mortgage rates and other gimmicks will not save them this time. Look at you now Canada.

#4 Flop... on 06.18.19 at 4:27 pm

I have seen houses that need demolishing go for way less recently, but this move-in ready bungalow just went for 1.68 on The Westside.

Would still eat some cash.

Bungy, Bungy, Hippo…

M44BC

https://www.westsiderealty.ca/Properties.php/Details/1311

#5 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.18.19 at 4:44 pm

Yep,
God bless the socialistas for jumping in to save the day when everything was already turning down.

I’m thinking a lot of people (myself included) voted “anyone but Christy Clark” because the stench of corruption was too much to handle.

Premier Horgy Porgy may well have a revolt on his hands in 2 years time.

#6 Dolce Vita on 06.18.19 at 4:46 pm

“…The needy little moister org.”

“…NDP, which views real estate wealth as ill-gotten, elitist and worthy of destruction.”

“…self-proclaimed Green-NDP coalition junta.”

————————————-

Garth.

You need to be more forthright. At times I’m left wondering where you stand on certain issues.

THAT was TOO funny (I especially liked the “destruction” and “junta” parts).

Give the Moisters credit though, on the day of the announcement on Gov’s Twitter account there was Universal Condemnation of that Shared Equity Mortgage plan from the Moisters. They were not amused at the blatant vote buying and pandering of it all and said so in clear terms.

Canadians are not stupid. Well educated. Savvy (well, except for the “destructive junta” types).

————————————-

Meeting some of your acolytes early tomorrow AM in Venezia (the poor things).

Buonanotte e Ciao d'[*]Italia.

*Where my poor and in the shade Hosta is wilting at 10 PM from the heat. Oh well.

#7 Chimingin on 06.18.19 at 4:46 pm

I am all out of patience with this generation. They just trashed the poor guy who gave the convocation speech at Western for daring to mention that 30 years ago, those of us heading down the 401 to go there as freshers were subject to large signs that read “Parents thanks for your virgin daughters” and other lame jokes. They really want to take off this guy’s head, and only because he mentioned that is what is USED to be like. If this generation doesn’t have the intestinal fortitude to even hear a description of the past without clutching their pearls and shouting everyone down, I have no interest in supporting them with my tax dollars.

#8 Realty Is Greatness on 06.18.19 at 4:54 pm

#6 Dolce Vita – The last paragraph was a barn burner, and had me laughing. The ball was hit out of the park with the bases loaded. Rather clever was it not!

#9 theoryAndPractice on 06.18.19 at 5:01 pm

The formula also limits the purchase price to around $500,000, which buys a nice garage in Kits. -GT

——–
Correct but this is obviously except big cities to get votes where prices are not insane yet.

#10 Trudeau is smoking man's best friend on 06.18.19 at 5:10 pm

Liberal government re-approves Trans Mountain pipeline expansion

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-liberal-government-re-approves-trans-mountain-pipeline-expansion/

#11 Cotttingham a bargain on 06.18.19 at 5:14 pm

126 -Mohammad on 06.18.19 at 4:54 pm
#25 Cottingham a bargain

Vaughan is terrible these days.

Cousin of mine (smart guy) is renting a new Semi 2000 square foot for 2600 (lots of money, but still good price)

3 story semi detaches with basement going for $999,999 109,999 however decent (2200 square foot)
Owners own a bunch of houses.

Vaughan doesn’t look good these days. You could get better in Brampton new for the bulder for 730. Good area.
————

Brampton extremely homogeneous in cultural makeup. I prefer a more diverse ethnic background in my neighborhood when investing, not to mention older , more established .

I would put Richmond Hill on my buy list as a bargain right now ( for a short period of time anyway). Actually anything along Yonge corridor a great bet.

Vaughan a somewhat distant second. Brampton off the radar .

#12 VanRain on 06.18.19 at 5:16 pm

The market in BC needs to drop more than $90 billion in order for us not to be further in debt. The amount of speculation is out of control, which means that residents who want to buy can’t afford to be further sucked into debt.

#13 Finally! on 06.18.19 at 5:18 pm

Finally, Trudeau looking like a real Prime Minister today. Wow. Still nervous about it all, but finally he made a good speech today and was realistic that if we are ever going to go to a green economy, we need this pipeline. If no pipeline, no green economy. It’s very simple.

#14 Smartalox on 06.18.19 at 5:23 pm

Have no Fear Vancouver, your housing markets are saved:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-vancouver-real-estate-sees-uptick-in-interest-from-hong-kong-buyers/

Sez the breathless copy:
Real estate agents in Vancouver have noticed something unusual in the past few weeks. For the first time in recent memory, the number of Hong Kong Chinese attending open-house showings has exceeded that of mainland Chinese buyers, who have been a visible presence in the city’s real estate market over the past decade…

At the same time, 10,000 kilometres away in Vancouver, agents at Macdonald Real Estate Group have seen a “noticeable” change in who is arriving at doorsteps, said president Dan Scarrow. “The ratio of Hong Kong Chinese to mainland Chinese at their open houses increased significantly over the last few weekends,” he said….

At the office of Hong Win International Group, interest in buying Canadian condos is up by roughly a third over the past few months, the period during which debate over the extradition bill has seized the city.

The controversy has been a “catalyst” for people who might have already been considering a move back to Canada, said Michael Chan, executive director of Hong Win, which works with property developers to sell newly built condo units to buyers in Hong Kong. His 22nd-floor office is decorated with sales trophies and brochures for condos in Toronto and Vancouver…

It goes on and on…

#15 Keith on 06.18.19 at 5:32 pm

“Almost two – thirds of people in Vancouver (the actual number is 64%) own real estate.”

Delusional. Renters make up 51% of Vancouver households, according to the city of Vancouver, and after they pay their rent on a Vancouver wage or salary it’s safe to say they don’t own recreational property somewhere else.

Double check your source on that one.

https://vancouver.ca/files/cov/housing-characteristics-fact-sheet.pdf

I said Metro Van. Correct statement. – Garth

#16 Calgary Rip Off on 06.18.19 at 5:35 pm

Great article.

The reality is that mortgage ownership is transient as is renting.

Even with acquiring a mortgage, you don’t really own the land, as there are bylaws and nosy neighbours.

The real decision of whether to buy or rent is decided on job security real or perceived and costs of renting vs buying.

In Calgary houses are listed many of them at $500K. Whats laughable is that many of these greedy idiots bought their coffins, aka houses, before 2005 and probably paid $200K for it. Now they want to sell it for half a million without often doing renovations? Laughable.

Many people do in fact rent because of perceived freedoms and investment opportunity or flexibility.

There is no answer. People need a place to live.

Unfortunately for many of the idiots in Calgary counting on the pipeline to revitalize the economy that wont happen.

Whats the difference between Calgary and Siberian Russia? Nothing except the language.

#17 Caledon dave on 06.18.19 at 5:36 pm

DELETED

#18 jess on 06.18.19 at 5:40 pm

maybe this present generation will end up like s.korea

“honjok,” a neologism combining the words “hon” (alone) and “jok” (tribe).

“In our parents’ generation, people knew that after working hard and saving up for certain number of years, they would be able to buy a house for their family,” she said.
“But we came to a realization that we’ll never be able to own anything like that, even if we work for our entire lives.

40 per cent of people in their 20s and 30s appear to have quit dating altogether.
http://theconversation.com/why-young-people-in-south-korea-are-staying-single-despite-efforts-to-spark-dating-111486

====================

Jun 10 2019

WASHINGTON – Senate Banking Committee members U.S. Sens. Mark R. Warner (D-VA), Tom Cotton (R-AR), Doug Jones (D-AL), and Mike Rounds (R-SD) today unveiled draft bipartisan legislation to improve corporate transparency, strengthen national security, and help law enforcement combat illicit financial activity being carried out by terrorists, drug and human traffickers, and other criminals.

The Improving Laundering Laws and Increasing Comprehensive Information Tracking of Criminal Activity in Shell Holdings (ILLICIT CASH) Act would, for the first time, require shell companies – often used as fronts for criminal activity – to disclose their true owners to the U.S. Department of Treasury. It would also update decades-old anti-money laundering (AML) and combating the financing of terrorism (CFT) policies, by giving Treasury and law enforcement the tools they need to fight criminal networks. This includes improving overall communication between law enforcement, financial institutions, and regulators, and facilitating the adoption of critical 21st century technologies.

https://www.warner.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/pressreleases?id=50AAECEE-2779-47E0-91D6-BC19030D81AF

https://www.icij.org/investigations/paradise-papers/senators-propose-radical-overhaul-of-us-anti-money-laundering-regime/

#19 Gwendolyn on 06.18.19 at 5:45 pm

Looks like Garth is quoting someone who is making up numbers. If one hasn’t sold, one hasn’t crystallized.
What is the problem with lower equity values?

#20 BlogDog123 on 06.18.19 at 5:47 pm

Supply, supply, supply…

I do like the idea of incentivizing the creation of granny flats or 2nd units in houses. Suburbs have houses that could use a nice renovation with a basement or 2nd kitchen suite.

Rents are crazy high in Mississauga, so a good supply using existing houses with side entrances would make sense to me… But NIMBY folks won’t agree.

#21 Howard on 06.18.19 at 5:50 pm

The BC market was rolling over before the anti-Liberal vote that installed a self-proclaimed Green-NDP coalition junta. Sales were declining steadily and prices moderating. As average prices exceeded the ability of average families, a correction was inevitable. But, instead, a bunch of amateurs took the wheel and headed straight for the ditch.

———————————————-

Good!

And the BC NDP are indeed rank amateurs on the corruption score compared to the previous government.

#22 Dog Breath on 06.18.19 at 5:56 pm

# 13 Finally
Trudeau looking like a real Prime Minister today….”if we are ever going to go to a green economy, we need this pipeline.”
===================================
Don’t hold your breath waiting for this to be build. If he was really serious about this he would use the “not withstanding clause” Other wise the activist leftist judges will allow the environmental groups and the Aboriginals to tie this up in the courts forever. Trudeau knows this.

#23 Lead Paint on 06.18.19 at 6:08 pm

#1 Stan Brooks on 06.18.19 at 4:23 pm

And if you do the same analysis on Detroit, what is the inflation rate?

#24 Nonplused on 06.18.19 at 6:09 pm

“If Canadians ever need a concrete example of how taxes erase public wealth, rob an economy and yet provide no social benefit, here she be. ”

So let’s implement a “carbon tax”!!! Although raising the HST would be simpler and accomplish pretty much the same thing mathematically.

#25 Lost...but not leased on 06.18.19 at 6:13 pm

I think that the moisters that “buy” into Turdeaus plan, and buy fixer uppers…..should tell Turdeau that Feds equity in this joint venture will rise if they cut corners and get “under- the -table” contractors…

#26 ShawnG in TO on 06.18.19 at 6:14 pm

you know how you encourage etfs in your tfsa account? i’ve found the perfect one
csav – high interest savings etf
ha ! i kid you not
this turd gives “attractive” yield of ~2.1%

dummy investors causes dummy products.

topics here are too serious lately. when are you going to have some fun? i miss the market death watch features.

#27 Greenwich McLorshe on 06.18.19 at 6:20 pm

Garth, Would you be giving Rowat and Lewinza the greenlight tomorrow at 9:29am to back the truck up to kingdom come in Canadian Energy ETFs? The catalyst is here, time to load up for those who have been waiting with 30% cash for the last few years?

#28 Ace Goodheart on 06.18.19 at 6:28 pm

DELETED

#29 Gulf Breeze on 06.18.19 at 6:28 pm

Ronaldo,

My parents were shopping for a house in the British Properties in 1969. The average price was around 100,000.00. For a million dollars you could have purchased 10 houses, not 100, as you stated in your post from yesterday.

Meanwhile gold was around 30.00 per oz, maybe less, so now do the math.

Would you have been better off putting your money into gold in 1969 or 10 homes in the British properties?

#30 Mike on 06.18.19 at 6:28 pm

With the Libs having just pushed through a bill re: “Climate Emergency”, every future tax increase will now have this nonsense backing it. All future tax grabs will be under the guise of “saving the whales (ie: climate emergency”).

Government creates no wealth, it solves no problems but rather does the exact opposite. This is the beginning of the end folks.

https://action.liberal.ca/declaring-a-national-climate-emergency/

#31 AGuyInVancouver on 06.18.19 at 6:29 pm

John Horgan and the NDP were elected with the mandate to make housing affordable. Seems like they did just that. Surely Garth doesn’t expect a housing correction to come without some losers. The moaner he quotes is the the president and chief operating officer of LMS Reinforcing Steel Group (not that he woudl have a vested interest in real estate pimping, right Garth?). He is just another cog in the real estate industrial complex. I thought this blog was against the machinations of those who would have you put all your money into one asset?

Challenge the numbers instead of trashing the man. That’s what losers do. – Garth

#32 jess on 06.18.19 at 6:32 pm

New study says minimum wage worker would
need to work almost three full-time jobs to afford two-bedroom rental
Tampa Bay Times·1 hour ago
Looking to rent an apartment in Massachusetts?
You might need more than one job
The Boston Globe·1 hour ago
========
“If a worker held three full-time minimum-wage jobs, they’d be earning $21.75, just under the $22.10 needed to afford rent and have 70% of income left over for other expenses. They would have to work about 122 hours a week, 52 weeks a year, just to cover rent, according to the report. To put that in perspective, there are 168 hours in the week — that leaves them with only 46 hours, less than two days, of nonwork time. ”

https://www.businessinsider.com/two-bedroom-apartment-rent-minimum-wage-worker-2019-1

=
have a read from:
http://www.wealthandwant.com/docs/Sinclair_CoLS.html

The Consequences of Land Speculation
are Tenantry and Debt on the Farms, and Slums and Luxury in the Cities by Upton Sinclair

#33 Snoop Doggy Dog on 06.18.19 at 6:41 pm

The sooner dirty money Monreau is gone the better.

David Eby would be a good replacement for Bill Blair and/or Monreau.

In spite of all this bs…don’t let your foot off the gas pedal Horgan!!!!!!!

Not until either houses in Vancouver cost 500k again or wages are quadrupled.

#34 NEVER GIVE UP on 06.18.19 at 6:45 pm

Sorry to disagree with you Garth.

British Columbians are livid about the real estate fraudulent industrial complex.

Not only from not so insignificant money launderers and hot money parking from foreigners but from our own 3 levels of government pumping RE in every way possible.

Even homeowners are angry because they are also trapped in huge mortgages that they cannot liquidate easily and even if they did they cannot trade up because there is little equity paid off in say 5 years of home ownership. Where can they buy even if they sell?

It is easy for you to say they should move to Winterpeg but I was born there and even I would never go back to that pleasant but brutally cold city with mosquitoes that block the sun.

People have roots in a city with friends and family that cannot all move to Edmonton because one part of the family decides to make a break for it!

There is no moral or ethical reason that Vancouver should have RE prices more than 20% higher than the rest of Canada.

#35 Keith on 06.18.19 at 6:53 pm

“I said Metro Van. Correct statement. – Garth”

I copied and pasted what was and is there. You didn’t say Metro Van.

Metro Van. Sue me. – Garth

#36 WUL on 06.18.19 at 6:58 pm

#22 Dog Breath on 06.18.19 at 5:56 pm
# 13 Finally
Trudeau looking like a real Prime Minister today….”if we are ever going to go to a green economy, we need this pipeline.”
===================================
Don’t hold your breath waiting for this to be build. If he was really serious about this he would use the “not withstanding clause” Other wise the activist leftist judges will allow the environmental groups and the Aboriginals to tie this up in the courts forever. Trudeau knows this.
!!!!!!

I have not seen you comment before and I doubt you read the comment section after you have made your idiotic comments on constitutional law in this country. My comment is probably wasted upon you. Others might learn from it.

The notwithstanding clause of the Charter of Rights and Freedoms has no application whatsoever to the TMX pipeline.

None.

Zippo.

It cannot be invoked in these circumstances. It is a legal impossibility.

Read the Charter. It is a reasonably plain language document.

#37 SoggyShorts on 06.18.19 at 7:08 pm

#1 Stan Brooks on 06.18.19 at 4:23 pm
#113 Ronaldo on 06.18.19 at 11:24 am

Rather specific cherry picking, no?

How much was a TV in 1969 vs today? Over $1000?
That means inflation has been negative for 50 years!

#38 theoryAndPractice on 06.18.19 at 7:11 pm

#24 Nonplused on 06.18.19 at 6:09 pm
So let’s implement a “carbon tax”!!! Although raising the HST would be simpler and accomplish pretty much the same thing mathematically.
—-

What about blog tax (sorry Garth) , comments tax (punishing all here) ? I can see in the future Canadians shortly liable for tax on ‘bytes’ used per month. After all, it impacts carbon footprint due to energy consumed…

#39 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.18.19 at 7:17 pm

@#35 Hair splitter Keith
“I copied and pasted what was and is there. You didn’t say Metro Van.”

+++++

You’re missing the point.
The NDP has pandered to the voters and implemented policies that are too late and too heavy handed.
Which is making the meltdown worse.
(Personally I dont care either way because I rent and my job is unaffected by housing one way or another)

But you go back and split hairs…..its easier than furrowed browed thinking.

#40 Reality is stark on 06.18.19 at 7:18 pm

The most important lesson to glean from this mess in B.C. is to realize that the loss you have incurred on your property is not recognized by the Province.
They will issue property tax increases as if your real estate holdings went up in value.
Do not kid yourself, this is methodical wealth confiscation. Politicians are not blind to the fact that real wealth in this country has eroded. However they have figured out a way to prosper in the long run regardless of how poorly the economy performs.
They’ll get your money. Their pensions are guaranteed. The only guarantee you have going forward is that OAS clawbacks will start at about $56000 from the current $75000. Just far enough above the standard government pension to avoid any clawback. Convenient.
Let’s reward the risk averse.
Canada, what a concept.

#41 Steven Rowlandson on 06.18.19 at 7:18 pm

When people lie and say that real estate is an investment they murder or genocide a people or their own people by getting home prices to rise far faster than minimum incomes depriving people of their first or only home and by doing so discourage or make impossible reproduction and healthy living.
It is the doom of nations and their people that they forget this. Remember real estate is only a place to live and a necessity of life. The price should be kept low so that everyone can buy a place to live.

#42 Guy Fawkes on 06.18.19 at 7:35 pm

WULly BULly #36
Haven’t heard much from you lately. Comments are better when your here, as per that little gem!

#43 Tony Zani on 06.18.19 at 7:39 pm

Comparing a TV to a house is just plain dumb. A house is more important than a TV and it has many more long term costs involved. It is like comparing a kid’s toy car with an actual car. It makes no sense.

#44 SCD on 06.18.19 at 7:47 pm

I bet the BC speculation tax cost more to implement than it actually will bring in in revenue.

#45 Kat on 06.18.19 at 7:53 pm

Comrade, lol.
He is doing what the voters wanted and I haven’t heard from anyone except Realtors and speculators that they are upset. People who actually grew up here and own property are happy as maybe their kids can stay and live in the same province as them. Hopefully it will crash much further, a place in Langley is nuts at $800,00. Sorry to those who bought into the thought that it always went up but like investing money on stocks you took the risk.

#46 Keith on 06.18.19 at 7:57 pm

@#35 crowdedelevatorfartz

You can call it splitting hairs, I call it a failure to proofread sufficiently before publishing. For a blog that is read nationwide, the difference between the city of Vancouver, and Metro Vancouver is more than sufficient to point out this shortcoming. The population of Vancouver is about 650,000 the region is 2,000,000. It’s not a minor point of sentence construction, it’s a significant error in the facts.

The point of the blog post has been made ad nauseum for months now, and since you raised furrowed brow thinking here’s a reality check for you to chew on. No intelligent person is in favor of eat the rich taxation. It doesn’t serve a positive economic or fiscal purpose and in fact can backfire quite badly. But like most people, you fail to furrow the brow and peel the onion.

The NDP housing policy is at 70% in the polls. Probably a biased number, but the intelligent person asks why would a policy that includes taxation policy that panders to the politics of envy be so popular. If you follow politics closely, you know that when people went to the B.C. Liberals for meaningful action on the housing crisis, not just being able to afford a house or real estate of any kind, but the growing rental crisis the response was a giant middle finger. Not just to the poor, or working stiffs but even to white collar professionals.

Of course the NDP’s taxation policies on housing are a failure. That’s not the point. They’re playing politics with an issue that the B.C. Liberals turned into a major disaster, with both their actions and inaction. It’s an easy win, it plays to their base and little bit beyond.

All politicians do this, they take a stance where a few people, or a group of people that don’t vote get hurt but it plays to their base. It’s not right, but they were elected to solve the housing crisis and they are taking a lot of actions that will help. Taking a financial cheap shot at the denizens of Point Grey isn’t good policy, but it’s great political strategy, as the poll results show.

#47 The Real Mark on 06.18.19 at 8:12 pm

Why would anyone who participates in this ‘program’ invest a dime in a house once already purchased? Only to see their investment benefitting the government.

I suspect in a few years, we’ll hear of all sorts of implied fraud. Such as back-door cash rebates. Cars being tacked onto the purchase price of a house. Unusual inclusion of appliances and even furniture. After all, if the government is a 10% equity owner, but has a very limited ability to have good insight into what they’re investing, the avenues for waste and fraud are abundant. Not to mention sales of the property to related entities at suppressed market values, to cheat the minority shareholder (the government) out of its equity.

#48 Ricardo Craggmeier on 06.18.19 at 8:43 pm

I wonder if the oil shorts are going to get “CrUsHeD” tomorrow? Just a perfect storm tomorrow of TMX approval, rate cuts, short squeezes and so much more. Alberta Tea is going to have a good laugh tomorrow.

#49 Briny MacDuff on 06.18.19 at 9:05 pm

I think the Liberals were pigeon-holed today with their decision on TMX. If they rejected the pipeline, the Cdn dollar might have cratered and WCS with it. If we had strong gold reserves at the Bank of Canada, we probably wouldn’t have had to worry about that but our gold is sold from there!
So they had no choice in the matter. If they had the gold, they could have had more flexibility. But gold is trust and without oil to back it, little left to back the Dollar.

#50 april on 06.18.19 at 9:07 pm

Another example of how the sleazy real estate industry makes up and exaggerates stories to try to influence people to start buying real estate.

#51 DON on 06.18.19 at 9:33 pm

For consistency:

In BC:

The BC Liberals brought in the Foreign Buyer tax under pressure and then NDP/Green didn’t get rid of it. The BC Liberals also brought in the moisture down payment aid. Meanwhile Germany under pressure put a 5 year freeze on rental increases (a lot of people rent in Germany) of course they did it under pressure. NZ ban on foreign buyers and as Nationalism reappears freezes on immigration have been tossed around. The British want to return Pakistani citizens with expired visas.

What’s the difference between 2009 and now…peak house prices and pricing out a segment of the population at the bottom of the property ponzi scheme. But now droves of people are coming from Hong Kong.

Hey who gave us 40 year mortages and reduced down payments? Root cause.

And what’s with the BC Liberal MP with two counts of aiding criminals to buy houses?

Tip off the iceberg it seems.

Nationalism and the need for lower interests rates are increasingly in the media around the World. So we can’t raise rates due to poor performing economies and people think real estate will go up forever??? Must be nice not to see a reckoning on the horizon…ignorance is truly bliss but peak debt is a bitch.

How long can people tread debt?

Oh and Jason Kenny promised cheaper gas if the Pipeline was approved. Where is it and hey what’s happens if China isn’t interested (trade war).

Why do we not refine it (at least to a better grade) in CANADA. FFS!

#52 will on 06.18.19 at 9:42 pm

check out this dog story:

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06-18/stay-game

#53 Viva Le Trump on 06.18.19 at 9:49 pm

Nice crowd for trump tonight in Florida!
MAGA MAGA MAGA
MCGA MCGA MCGA

#54 ImGonnaBeSick on 06.18.19 at 9:49 pm

#16 Calgary Rip Off on 06.18.19 at 5:35 pm

Buying in 2005 for $200,000 and then selling in 2019 for $500,000 is an annualized appreciation of 6.6% y/y… above the historical average, sure, what one would expect from a balanced portfolio… If that was the whole story…

In 2005 a 5yr fixed was around 5.7%. With 10% down, amortized over 25 years, in 2019, they would still owe around 100-125,000 on the mortgage and would have shelled out around $190,000 in mortgage payments, so $210,000 including the downpayment. Giving them with $165,000 profit after the sale (excluding all fees, maintenance, taxes, insurances, utilities)..

So, the question is, how much do these extras cost per year… 3000/yr? 4k? 10k? At the end of 14yrs, I would argue these greedy sellers are only getting back what they’ve put in, and any profit is merely on paper, non-existent… I would also argue, had they put that into a balanced portfolio, they would have a real profit rather than just their costs covered. Housing is not the money maker people seem to think it is. It’s inflated because the numbers are so high and folks are highly leveraged. But imagine I bought a Lego set in 2005 for $200 and then sold it in 2019 for $500… Not as impressive when the number is in the 100s…

#55 Ronaldo on 06.18.19 at 10:08 pm

Here are some interesting stats on Wildfires in BC in the past few years. Looking at this is there anything that would lead us to believe that climate change has anything to do with it?

https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/safety/wildfire-status/about-bcws/wildfire-statistics/wildfire-averages

#56 DON on 06.18.19 at 10:14 pm

Politically (votes) – Trudeau needed to approve the TMX pipeline to take the wind out of the conservative sails and he sacrificed BC seats. He is having problems with some of his BC MPs.

Delay through the courrs…..

It’s a warning from the Tsleil-Waututh Nation (JWR’s Dad?)

“We will be appealing this decision to the Federal Court of Appeal. We believe the consultation missed the mark set by the federal court of Canada,” said George-Wilson.

Last summer, the Tsleil-Waututh Nation and others won a major court case that forced federal authorities to reconsider the environmental risks of the increased tanker traffic associated with the pipeline project and undertake further consultation with Indigenous communities.

Mini Harper lost some wind in his political sail. And now Jason Kenny has to perform…no excuses. Rob Ford…geezus. Hires Gordon Campbell as an expert on gutting government services for his donors.

“George Abbott Looks Back at the BC Liberals New Era, and Doesn’t Like What He Sees
Former cabinet minister’s PhD thesis examines the consequences of deep tax cuts in the Campbell government’s first years.”

The rest of the country seems pretty normal.

#57 DON on 06.18.19 at 10:30 pm

https://www.citynews1130.com/2019/06/18/home-price-declines-bc/

VANCOUVER (NEWS 1130) – Home prices have been dropping for some time in British Columbia, but a new forecast indicates that trend won’t last forever. TD Bank expects prices in the province will bottom out at some point next year.

While home sales have started to show signs of a rebound in Metro Vancouver, when it comes to prices, we’ve seen a year of monthly declines in the benchmark price, according to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver.

But a new provincial forecast from TD Bank indicates an expectation those declines will come to an end soon.

“Recent data has shown there’s been some improvement recently, sales are starting to pick up again. Some of the drivers that impact home demand have been turning in the other direction,” says TD economist Omar Abdelrahman.

And others are warning of a slow down in economies.

Makes you wonder doesn’t it. So… in 2020 will Vancouver be affordable for doctors/Lawyers etc? And what are the chances of steep monthly declines in 6 – 12 months? Next on the scene is the Donald & Xi meeting. Hmmm – is China ready to settle? Trump says there are, then again he says everything and anything and no one seems to be able to challenge him.

#58 NEVER GIVE UP on 06.18.19 at 10:34 pm

Real estate prices.

The real reason real estate seemingly goes up is because currency gets weaker due to the fraudulent system of debasing currencies.

If say there were only $1000.00 in the whole world to buy all the goods that existed in a world of 10 people, then everything will get cheaper and cheaper as more and more wealth is produced with human labor. Providing the currency is not manipulated.

The system we have now is that the $1000.00 is turned into $2000.00 every 5 years or so for arguments sake.

When a businessman has extra cash from the debased currency floating around the economy, he will not share it with the worker who is too in the dark to understand what is happening.
The businessman will take his portion of the newly printed (electronically or otherwise) currency and buy an asset from a sucker who does not know that his property is now worth double in terms of the debased currency.

So in summation Smart money buys THINGS (assets) of value that will keep up with the debasement of the currency.

Wages will never keep up with the debasement of currency. Simple human greed.

#59 Blobby on 06.18.19 at 10:48 pm

So real estate is dropping in value and becoming more affordable, and less overpriced.

Sounds like a good thing to me.

#60 DON on 06.18.19 at 10:48 pm

last one (filling in for those on vacation)

https://www.macleans.ca/economy/realestateeconomy/b-c-s-money-laundering-crisis-goes-national/

Dirty money: it’s a Canadian thing
Canada’s housing markets are rife with shadowy buyers and greasy cash. B.C. was just the beginning.
by Jason Kirby

Jun 12, 2019

#61 Rexx Rock on 06.18.19 at 11:05 pm

Oil and gold stocks look good now.They have maybe hit bottom and ready to rise.Eu is still being destroyed by Draghi.Just like poloz the clown they have no credibilty.Zirp coming to the USA,the real reason is 22 trillion dollars.All pensions will be clawed back because of debt,be prepared.

#62 Ronaldo on 06.18.19 at 11:47 pm

#37 SoggyShorts on 06.18.19 at 7:08 pm
#1 Stan Brooks on 06.18.19 at 4:23 pm
#113 Ronaldo on 06.18.19 at 11:24 am

Rather specific cherry picking, no?

How much was a TV in 1969 vs today? Over $1000?
That means inflation has been negative for 50 years!
====================================

And you base inflation on the price of a TV? That’s the ultimate in cherry picking.

From the Vancouver Sun November 19, 1969
——————————————————-

An RCA 25″ colour TV in oak cabinet on Nov. 19/69 was on sale for $759 at Eatons in Vancouver. TV,s were very expensive in those days and this would have represented a bit over 1 months salary for me. Equivalent salary today would be around $6500. Yep, TV’s have definately come down in price for sure.

Gold was 36.55 and now $1345. About 37 times the 1969 price.

You could lease a Toyota Mark II sedan for $81/month or a Chevy Bel-Air for $98/month, no mileage charge.

You could buy a 1970 Austin 1300 America for $2095.

You could lease a 600 s.f. office at 326 W.Pender for $127.50 per month.

And food items:

BC grown spartan apples – 6 lbs. for $1.00
20 lb. bag of Robin Hood flour for $1.49
Seedless raisins 2 lb. for 69 cents
Pitted dates 2 lb. for 53 cents
Fry’s Cocoa 16 oz. tin for 89 cents
Sun Rype Apple Juice – 3 48 oz. cans for $1.00
Hamburger – 3 lbs. for $1.00
Bananas – 10 lbs. for $1.00

Guaranteed Investment certificates 8 3/4%.

7 1/4″ Black and Decker circular saw $38.88
Variable speed drill $29.95
20 ft. extension ladder for $28.99

These are just a few random items from the newspaper.

Now for the real juicy stuff. Real Estate.
————————————————
810 Eyremount Drive, West Vancouver – $62,900
Assessment July 1, 2017 – $6,164,000 – 98 times 1970 price.
Assessment July 1, 2018 – $4,598,000 down $1,566,000 – down to 73 times 1970 price. That must hurt.

1103 Lodge Road, North Vancouver – asking upper 40s.
Assessment July 1, 2018 – $2,319,000. Down $98,000 from 2017. Roughly 49 times the 1970 price.

2811 Sechelt Drive, North Vancouver – $39,500.
Assessment July 1, 2018 – $1,498,000 – Down $70,000 from 2017. Approx. 38 times the 1970 price. Pretty close to Gold price increase.

723 East 6th, North Vancouver – $25,000.
Assessment July 1, 2018 – $1,406,900 – Down $1,046,000 from 2017. Approx. 56 times the 1970 price.

And now the one I purchased in Dec. 1969 for $20,800 in North Vancouver at 933 Old Lillooet Rd.
Assessment July 1, 2018 – $753,000 – up $29,400 from 2017 assessment. Approx. 36 times the 1970 price.
This was a Townhouse condo, 3 level.

This will give you a fair idea on what inflation has been in the past 50 years. It’s pretty clear where real estate stands compared to the other items.

#63 Jerry Cutler on 06.19.19 at 12:06 am

“If Canadians ever need a concrete example of how taxes erase public wealth, rob an economy and yet provide no social benefit, here she be.”

So, ….. no more health care, roads, schools, hospitals, universities, military, police, coast guard, air traffic control, food inspection, foreign diplomats, financial oversight, etc.?

#64 Tricky Dick on 06.19.19 at 12:20 am

Poor Trudeau, it must hurt to straddle that picker fence between his American Green Carpet Baggers backers and the needs of the ROC. The Americans want to shut down Canadian Energy and Resource extraction so we become dependent on thier Replacement Technology ( They like to call it ‘Renewable ‘ for a softer sell), and they’ve flooded Canadian leftist political coffers to that end. I saw a heap of the Trudeau Foundation holdings not long a ago, from near zero to hundreds of millions, gee, where’d that come from?) Now isn’t that a stick up the arse for poor Justin.

So, what’s his straddle? OK the Trans Mountain Project ( knowing his American backers have lots of lawsuits planned to continue stalling) and hope it placates the angry voters howling for his head. And, he will keep the Tanker Ban ( in spite of the thousands of tankers already plying the coast North to South) in order to placate the Green Carpet Baggers so they keep funneling cash into his badly received reelection campaign.

Globalists are pouring money into Canadian propaganda. Our CBC is doing long series supporting the propaganda on climate change and how Canada has been a secret racist genocide nation all along and we need to make amends by accepting an irrational number of migrants that aren’t quite fitting into Europe. It reminds me of the 18 month long heavy rotation Hate Harper Campaign ( now shown in tax records to have been funded by a consortium of activist groups funded primarily by George Soros), and the never ending comedy called the Duffy Affair ! Twenty four seven attacks on Canadian sensibility.

Two Soros fronts, Move On and Tides Foundation were the main attack dog crew spending millions to defeat Harper and Canadian sovereignty. Harper got on Soros bad side by snubbing the UN mass migration program. Harper said Canada had its own immigration policy. Not so, said Soros. Meetings with Trudeau ensued.

Tides is on tax record as have spent 300 million to kill Canadian energy. Manchuria Candidates like Gerry Butts feltched into the PMO (did Justin know Butts affiliations with foreign cabals working directly against Canada’s interest?) Tides is on record as being a George Soros entity for tax purposes. Isn’t it nice that he could write off his War on Canada expenses on his American taxes?

This is Deja Voodoo all over again unless Canadians get thier collective heads out of thier arses and realize that foreign carpet baggers are seriously interfering with our democracy.

#65 Stan Brooks on 06.19.19 at 12:22 am

#58 NEVER GIVE UP on 06.18.19 at 10:34 pm

Real estate prices are function of the demand by the sheeple – the one that is broke, in debt and with no money.

It makes no sense whatsoever for labour to become cheaper, but a labour derivative, i.e. housing to become much, much more expensive.

Plus a house is community owned due to the significant taxes on it and more of a liability.
It is considered an ‘asset’ due to government policies designed solely for bank profits.

The fact that idiot politicians and real estate ‘activists’ can go out there and talk about 1.5-2 million ‘affordable’ homes is indicative of how absurd, artificial and messy the whole situation is.

The worse part is that all sheeple is affected due to stagnant wages, roaring inflation (due to over-crediting), melting real pensions and disappearing benefits that are measured in declining currency.

There is no payment back of that debt, make no mistake about it, the only road ahead is of more debt i.e. inflation.

The worse part is it was all engineered, the mortgage ‘insurance’ that does not exist anywhere else, the pathetic and absolutely useless BoC, it was all by design.

So expect more of the same crap and verbal diarrhea for quite some more time until we hit true Detroit-ization, or at least Chicago-ization, they were NBA champions not that long ago, you know.

Judging by the crime rates and declining benefits and services, we are well on our way there. Wish we had their social security.

#66 Ronaldo on 06.19.19 at 12:33 am

#1 Stan Brooks

I have been corrected on my math so here is what I should have said.

50 years ago (1969) 1 million dollars could buy (based on a price of $50,000 each) 20 homes in W.Vancr. Today, based on a price of $5,000,000 for the same place, 1 million will only buy you 1/5th of 1 of those houses. To buy the same 20 homes today would cost $100,000,000. (100 times more).

I used $50,000 because I knew someone who had purchased a home then for that price and it was quite the place. There were of course more expensive homes. Based on my family income at the time of around $12000 this represented about 4 times income so technically we could have afforded that but with interests rates of 10% it would have taken a good percentage of our take home pay so was not an option. Anyway, it gives you a good idea of what has happened to real estate in that time. Wages have certainly not kept up have they? And here we are now. What a mess. But of course it was all the Boomers fault right?

#67 Russ on 06.19.19 at 12:37 am

Ronaldo on 06.18.19 at 10:08 pm

Here are some interesting stats on Wildfires in BC in the past few years. Looking at this is there anything that would lead us to believe that climate change has anything to do with it?

https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/safety/wildfire-status/about-bcws/wildfire-statistics/wildfire-averages
===============================

Hi Ron,

The forest industry in B.C. is far too complex to break down into this kind of relationship, if you are insinuating climate change = # of acres burned.

If I want to draw an informed conclusion on this then it is obviously not climate change induced but forest management induced.

Dig deeper and you will see a correlation with raw log export (China & USA), reduced sawmill output, lower value wood left on the ground and not made available to secondary manufacturers, decreased chip supply to pulp mills and all sorts of foreign investment influence contrary to good forest management practices.

Look at the money trail.
And if you leave dry wood on the ground, it may very well burn!

#68 Vanron on 06.19.19 at 12:42 am

I believe we are going through our own financial crisis with runaway inflation. It isn’t apparent to most people as Harper was very clever with his unbelievable counterfeiting of our fiat currency. He couldn’t do QE like the US as we are not a reserve currency. Instead he created over 600 billion of mortgage money through CHMC out of thin air. This far exceeds the QE per capita of the US. All the counterfeit money poured into real estate and inflated it out of the reach of new buyers. Of course our government conveniently excludes house and rent inflation out of our core inflation figures. When you counterfeit money inflation always follows. What is our real inflation rate? When you include housing it is probably in the neighbourhood of 15 to 20%. Our governments of all levels are addicted to counterfeiting and taxing instead of actually creating manufacturing jobs and real wealth. I believe we are extremely close to a Greece or Venezuela crisis. Compliments of our politicians our main industry is selling houses back and forth to each other. They have destroyed our economy.

#69 slick on 06.19.19 at 12:53 am

If Canadians ever need a concrete example of how taxes erase public wealth, rob an economy and yet provide no social benefit, here she be.

Hence the purpose of the CARBON TAX!
Nothing more than a diversion.

#70 Ronaldo on 06.19.19 at 1:00 am

#29 Gulf Breeze on 06.18.19 at 6:28 pm
Ronaldo,

My parents were shopping for a house in the British Properties in 1969. The average price was around 100,000.00. For a million dollars you could have purchased 10 houses, not 100, as you stated in your post from yesterday.

Meanwhile gold was around 30.00 per oz, maybe less, so now do the math.

Would you have been better off putting your money into gold in 1969 or 10 homes in the British properties?
—————————————————————
You are absolutely correct in that based on $100,000 it would be 10 not 100. I did know people who bought up there then for $50,000 which seemed like a pile of cash back then. Gold was $36.00 at the time so if I had purchased $50,000 worth of the stuff I would have gotten 1388 oz’s. Today based on $1345/oz. that would be worth about 1.87 million vs. $5 million for the house. The house would have been the better bet by 2.7 times and I would be able to live in it all those years unlike the gold oz’s. Unfortunately, I could not afford the house at the time.

So, at the time I bought a place for $21,000 so had I bought gold instead, I would have 567 oz’s and at todays price of $1345 that would amount to $762,615. Today the place I bought in 69 is assessed at $753,400 and I would have had 50 years of living in it vs. renting a place. I would imagine that I probably would have put out 1 million in rent over those 50 years. So it seems real estate wins again.

#71 yvr_lurker on 06.19.19 at 1:09 am

In 50% agreement tonight. Trudeau’s house sharing idea is bad on several fronts. The Gov’t should not be helping a select few (even in this minimal way) to buy a house, and in the long term the Gov’t will end up with a good deal once the appreciation sets and the sweat equity of renos etc. Big waste of taxpayer money.
However, I am delighted with Horgan and the measures they introduced. Many of us in YVR do not want to live in Monaco, MonteCarlo, or Luxemburg, and the there are no uber-high paying jobs as in Silicon Valley, NYC, London, to support a 2.5M teardown in KITS. Vancouver was fast becoming a town where only inherited wealth, and rich foreign buyers could make a go of it. Bring it down so that LOCAL CITIZENS can afford to live here. What is so difficult to understand with that concept?

#72 Smoking Man on 06.19.19 at 1:17 am

Trump Nails it in Orlando.

Not only will he win the electoral college he will win the popular vote in 2020.

The left has become totally unhinged. Insanity on display daily, broadcast live by MSM.

These idiots think social media put trump in the White House.

Wrong…

It was when the left and there partners MSM wanted to normalized allowing creepy men in our wives and daughters bathrooms.

Dr Smoking Man
PhD Herdonomics.

#73 Bob Dog on 06.19.19 at 1:38 am

Garth is trolling hard today. I’m not biting.

#74 Jade on 06.19.19 at 1:44 am

A slice of Canadian psychosis! So glad to be here at this moment in time!

#75 Smoking Man on 06.19.19 at 1:55 am

When you made a promise to the wife that you will stop drinking and Smoking and you manage to keep the lie alive with extream deception and techniques.

I’m good.

One of my heroes.

https://youtu.be/CrdioqIMtpY

#76 Smoking Man on 06.19.19 at 2:05 am

Lenord Cohen what a loss. True Canadian.
Inspiration to the next generation.
Enjoy.

https://youtu.be/Bmx–WjeN7o

#77 Nonplused on 06.19.19 at 2:06 am

#38 theoryAndPractice

YouTube, Twitter, Facebook, Patreon, and Pinterest and others are already trying to impose fees or shall we say not rewording or banning content they don’t like. So the bit tax is already here in a way. The major internet content hosts are already moving towards heavy censorship. Eventually they will come for independent sites like Garth’s too, through the telcoms. All dissenting opinions will eventually be removed from the internet. And yes that was the plan all the way along. In the olden days the authorities had to track down the printing presses to suppress free speech, now all they have to do is track down your IP address or ban your channel. If your channel relies on YouTube or Facebook in anyway, they can do that in a few minutes. They just remove your channel or add your URL to the list of banned porn sites. The computers do the rest.

#78 Fortune500 on 06.19.19 at 2:12 am

If a crash in Vancouver was ‘inevitable’ then why get your knickers in a twist that it was brought forward by the NDP and their taxes? Not that I am supporting them one way or another.

PS, Rad Garth … really? It’s not 1989 :)

#79 The Great Gordonski on 06.19.19 at 2:41 am

#33 Snoop. Dippers and Libs are just a bit schiz? How do you square the circle of protesting low wages while promoting open borders immigration?

I wouldn’t say EBY is the guy for anything bigger than going for coffee’s. His track record on money laundering is batting a fat zero.

https://www.breitbart.com/2020-election/2019/06/18/live-updates-trump-launches-2020-re-election-campaign/

#80 Smoking Man on 06.19.19 at 3:03 am

DELETED

#81 Saraya Grewal on 06.19.19 at 3:08 am

Garth you are too arrogant.

#82 steerage steeward on 06.19.19 at 3:30 am

Now that Garth is asleep we can make a better world

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GuJQSAiODqI

Actually don’t take anyone seriously unless they are out of book space

Garth; know you shelves are heaving, but are there any books we can buy you?

#83 steerage steeward on 06.19.19 at 3:44 am

Been to Toronto before, for only four days

Never seen people getting along like that

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1zxGZYqmo4M

#84 Stan Brooks on 06.19.19 at 5:58 am

Facebook is about to launch a crypto-currency.

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/bank-canada-review-facebooks-cryptocurrency-204227031.html

And now the BoC’s boss is suddenly worried.

Verbatim:

The Bank of Canada has done extensive research on cryptocurrencies, including a staff discussion paper in February where it stated that a private digital currency could “increase the fragility of the financial system.”

In December 2017, central bank governor Stephen Poloz sounded the alarm on Bitcoin, saying the cryptocurrency was not a reliable store of value and does not constitute money.

The guy is totally delusional, he thinks that his ‘loonie’ is a store of value backed by T2’s taxation policies (try squeezing water out of a stone) and totally unreliable inflation statistics.

Who would you trust?

It seems the owners (banks) are suddenly getting competition from abroad. Banks are running scared.

Let’s see how far will the legislators go in order to protect the local oligopolies who are used to calm, protected ‘markets’ (i.e. guaranteed ability to take off five skins from the sheeple).

Of course the whole purpose of the credit super-bubble was to protect and guarantee future banks profits for the next decade or two. They hold you by the nuts if you are in debt.

And now suddenly the non-indebted will have a reliable choice of currency, of course local government will do everything possible in order to limit freedom of choice.

Lets’ see what happens to the banks now with their arrogance/ charging ‘fees’ for maintenance of accounts with customers being laughed at with zero interest rates, courtesy of the incompetents at BoC.

Private currencies, digital or not, are illegal – for obvious reasons. – Garth

#85 Dog Breath on 06.19.19 at 6:47 am

#36 WUL The notwithstanding clause of the Charter of Rights and Freedoms has no application whatsoever to the TMX pipeline.
——————————————————————————-

Well it looks like little Justin thought the “not withstanding clause” was an option, but he wouldn’t use it because it was just a “trick”.
In an interview on Edmonton radio station CHED in 2018, Trudeau says using “tricks” such as a new law or the Constitution’s notwithstanding clause would create further legal fights down the road.
“Using a legislative trick might be satisfying in the short term, but it would set up fights and uncertainty for investors over the coming years on any other project, because you can’t have a government keep invoking those sorts of things on every given project,” he told the radio station.

#86 The Great Gordonski on 06.19.19 at 7:05 am

Bash stock picking at your peril.

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/onequarter-of-the-stock-markets-2019-gain-came-from-just-five-stocks-143207576.html

Owning an index almost guarantees low returns, when buying winning stocks is the proven path. Why even invest if you’re not interested in making money?

Because most people have full lives and require a stable, prudent investment strategy. Take your cowboy urges elsewhere. – Garth

#87 dharma bum on 06.19.19 at 7:55 am

How did we ever get to the point where houses are such a big thing?
I guess it evolved over time, without any specific intention.
A hundred odd years ago, residential real estate was not a hot topic at cocktail parties. Nobody saw it as a long term financial strategy.
When the industrial age rolled around, and the division of labour became the norm, jobs became more plentiful. People of all sorts now had some steady income, despite their lack of any particular skills or trades.
Creative financing emerged, and the average joe with a steady job, could now get credit. Things could be bought today, and paid for over a long period of time.
Now poor people, as long as they had a steady paycheque, could borrow money to buy basic necessities.
Like cars. And houses.
Finally.
Joe lunch bucket could get a loan, and buy a roof over his family’s head.
Joe lunch bucket worked 12 hours a day, funnelling his paycheque into food, clothes, car payments or bus fare, and mortgage payments.
He did this for 25, 30, or 40 years.
In the meantime, his parents, children, and grandchildren probably lived under that same roof.
He didn’t obsess over that house. It was a place to live. Its “market value” had no bearing on the family’s life.
Forty years later, when Joe lunch bucket was near death, and for one reason or another, it was time to sell the house and move on, lo and behold, the house was worth a lot more than what he paid for it. Who knew?!
Good thing.
Because Joe didn’t have a penny (other than maybe what Mrs. lunch bucket was stashing in the coffee tin on the top shelf behind the flour).
So, the average working stiff discovered, over several generations, that their only hope for financial salvation at the end of their miserable lives was to have a house.
Nobody saved a cent, otherwise.
Today, it’s only the financially ignorant that use heavily leveraged home ownership as their ticket to financial salvation.
They don’t know any better. It’s their only form of forced savings.
People have noe discipline to save any money.
They only know borrowing and paying back.
House value appreciation after a lifetime of living in it is a bonus – if it happens.
Real wealth must be built through saving and investments in other assets, besides the house you reside in.
The old days are over.
A heavily mortgaged over-priced million dollar plus house will not pay for your retirement.

#88 Tater on 06.19.19 at 7:59 am

#27 Greenwich McLorshe on 06.18.19 at 6:20 pm
Garth, Would you be giving Rowat and Lewinza the greenlight tomorrow at 9:29am to back the truck up to kingdom come in Canadian Energy ETFs? The catalyst is here, time to load up for those who have been waiting with 30% cash for the last few years?
—————————————————————

#89 Tater on 06.19.19 at 8:01 am

#27 Greenwich McLorshe on 06.18.19 at 6:20 pm
Garth, Would you be giving Rowat and Lewinza the greenlight tomorrow at 9:29am to back the truck up to kingdom come in Canadian Energy ETFs? The catalyst is here, time to load up for those who have been waiting with 30% cash for the last few years?
—————————————————————

Over the last 3 years, the CAD return on the TSX has been 33%, on the SP500 55% and on the Nasdaq 86%.

If you’ve been holding 30% cash for this period you should be questioning your judgement.

#90 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.19.19 at 8:16 am

@#46 Missed the Mark (not Keith)
“they were elected to solve the housing crisis and they are taking a lot of actions that will help. ”
++++

Reading comprehension is hard.
As Garth previously stated.
The market was already turning.
Housing sales were already tanking.
Govt intervention will only make a market correction worse, much much worse.
The NDP’s knee jerk reactions to pander for votes will crush the housing sales AND the economy.
The Liberals were too arrogant and corrupt to care about voters anger.
Today?
The Sheeple are happy.
I particularly love the NDP’s holier than thou attitude about the pipeline expansion.
Lets see how they are in 12-24 months when BC’s economy is on its knees and they’re facing an election.
The Liberals will be back in power.

#91 jess on 06.19.19 at 8:31 am

whose you daddy?

3 stocks jp,goldman,boeing
all three under investigation dow 30 benchmark -is a price-weighted index

on june 15 trump tweeted:
“The Trump Economy is setting records, and has a long way up to go….However, if anyone but me takes over in 2020 (I know the competition very well), there will be a Market Crash the likes of which has not been seen before! KEEP AMERICA GREAT”
(since 1929-32 stocks lost 90% of their value)
====================================

The case is 3:18-cr-00239-RNC, USA v. Edmonds, and is being conducted in the U.S. District Court for the District of Connecticut.
http://wallstreetonparade.com/2019/06/could-jpmorgan-chase-be-hit-with-a-fourth-felony-count-for-rigging-precious-metals-markets/
Edmonds has now implicated other traders and supervisors within JPMorgan Chase. His plea agreement indicates the following:

“…the defendant and his fellow traders routinely placed bids and offers-in other words, orders-for precious metals futures contracts with the intent to cancel those bids and offers before execution (the ‘Spoof Orders’). This trading strategy was intended to, and did, transmit materially false and misleading liquidity and price information and otherwise deceive other market participants about the existence of supply and demand for the futures contracts at issue, and thus induce those other market participants to trade against orders that the defendant and his co-conspirators placed and did want to execute on the opposite side of the market from the Spoof Orders at prices, quantities, and times that the other market participants otherwise would not have traded. The Spoof Orders thus were designed to, and did, artificially move the price of precious metals futures contracts in a direction that was favorable to the defendant and his co-conspirators at the Bank, to the detriment of other market participants, including other market participants in Connecticut. The defendant placed the Spoof Orders in order to make money and avoid losses for himself, his co-conspirators, and the Bank. The defendant learned this deceptive trading strategy from more senior traders at the Bank, and he personally deployed this strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.”
https://www.justice.gov/opa/press-release/file/1108351/download

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/02/sentencing-of-ex-jp-morgan-chase-metals-trader-delayed-as-probe-continues.html
plea of guilty ? as part of a potential settlement?
https://www.bbc.com/news/topics/cm8m6leejrkt/1mdb-corruption-scandal

Press Release

June 06, 2019
Federal Reserve Board announces termination of enforcement action against JPMorgan Chase & Co. from January 2013
The Federal Reserve Board on Thursday announced the termination of an enforcement action against JPMorgan Chase & Co. from January 2013.
The enforcement action identified deficiencies in the firm’s internal controls, particularly at the firm’s Chief Investment Office (CIO), following the disclosure of significant losses in a large synthetic credit portfolio managed by the CIO. The enforcement action required the firm to improve its risk-management program and internal audit functions and was terminated based on evidence of substantial improvements by the firm.

#92 Tater on 06.19.19 at 8:32 am

#65 Stan Brooks on 06.19.19 at 12:22 am
#58 NEVER GIVE UP on 06.18.19 at 10:34 pm

Real estate prices are function of the demand by the sheeple – the one that is broke, in debt and with no money.

It makes no sense whatsoever for labour to become cheaper, but a labour derivative, i.e. housing to become much, much more expensive.

Plus a house is community owned due to the significant taxes on it and more of a liability.
It is considered an ‘asset’ due to government policies designed solely for bank profits.

The fact that idiot politicians and real estate ‘activists’ can go out there and talk about 1.5-2 million ‘affordable’ homes is indicative of how absurd, artificial and messy the whole situation is.

The worse part is that all sheeple is affected due to stagnant wages, roaring inflation (due to over-crediting), melting real pensions and disappearing benefits that are measured in declining currency.

There is no payment back of that debt, make no mistake about it, the only road ahead is of more debt i.e. inflation.

The worse part is it was all engineered, the mortgage ‘insurance’ that does not exist anywhere else, the pathetic and absolutely useless BoC, it was all by design.

So expect more of the same crap and verbal diarrhea for quite some more time until we hit true Detroit-ization, or at least Chicago-ization, they were NBA champions not that long ago, you know.

Judging by the crime rates and declining benefits and services, we are well on our way there. Wish we had their social security.
————————————————————–

Crimes down, source: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/180723/cg-b001-eng.htm

A house is absolutely an asset. The land itself has value, the house can be rented to generate an income in excess of property taxes, etc.

Housing may be a labour derivative, but land certainly isn’t. And it is land that appreciates, not structures.

#93 Another Deckchair on 06.19.19 at 10:08 am

Hey #87 Dharma;

For the millennials reading this on their iPhones over their coffee shop coffees and scones and whatever else:

Dharma wrote: “In the meantime, his parents, children, and grandchildren probably lived under that same roof.”

Me, on the tail end of the boomer age-group, lived with grandparents and parents – 3 generations. (demographic – I’m 1st generation from a country that still is, for now, a part of the EU)

Dharma wrote: “The old days are over.”

The old days are ALWAYS over. What worked 50 years ago won’t work now. What works now won’t work in 50 years. Bright people get this, but others don’t.

I hope that the cohort of angry youngsters here drop their jealousy, and look towards THEIR future, not the future (i.e. the present) that their parents worked toward.

#94 Mattl on 06.19.19 at 10:15 am

#54 ImGonnaBeSick on 06.18.19 at 9:49 pm
#16 Calgary Rip Off on 06.18.19 at 5:35 pm

Buying in 2005 for $200,000 and then selling in 2019 for $500,000 is an annualized appreciation of 6.6% y/y… above the historical average, sure, what one would expect from a balanced portfolio… If that was the whole story…

In 2005 a 5yr fixed was around 5.7%. With 10% down, amortized over 25 years, in 2019, they would still owe around 100-125,000 on the mortgage and would have shelled out around $190,000 in mortgage payments, so $210,000 including the downpayment. Giving them with $165,000 profit after the sale (excluding all fees, maintenance, taxes, insurances, utilities)..

So, the question is, how much do these extras cost per year… 3000/yr? 4k? 10k? At the end of 14yrs, I would argue these greedy sellers are only getting back what they’ve put in, and any profit is merely on paper, non-existent… I would also argue, had they put that into a balanced portfolio, they would have a real profit rather than just their costs covered. Housing is not the money maker people seem to think it is. It’s inflated because the numbers are so high and folks are highly leveraged. But imagine I bought a Lego set in 2005 for $200 and then sold it in 2019 for $500… Not as impressive when the number is in the 100s…

—————————————————————-

Any calculation like this / comparison to renting needs to include the cost of rent over those 14 years + any moving costs. You can’t just assume that they lived for free. 14 years of rent @ 2.5K per month is $420,000.

I’m not a RE bear but the long term cost of renting is substantial. I’m in my 40s, how much is a home going to cost to rent when I’m in my 60s? Today, 3,500 in my area, maybe 5-6K in 20 years?

Paying off a home, for me anyways, is a surefire way to ensure I can live in a good neighborhood, on a good property, well into my later years. Yes, it costs a whole lot over the first 25 years, but the next 40 should be pretty sweet. You can’t just leave out those last 20-40 years from the rent vs own calculations. Or ignore the cost to rent during the mortgage years.

#95 jess on 06.19.19 at 10:35 am

the sown seeds turn into “weeds?”

trump’s “leadership” council
who is harold hamm?

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/trump-leadership-council-members-full-list-848274/

#96 Ronaldo on 06.19.19 at 10:50 am

#67 Russ on 06.19.19 at 12:37 am
Ronaldo on 06.18.19 at 10:08 pm

Here are some interesting stats on Wildfires in BC in the past few years. Looking at this is there anything that would lead us to believe that climate change has anything to do with it?

https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/safety/wildfire-status/about-bcws/wildfire-statistics/wildfire-averages
===============================

Hi Ron,

The forest industry in B.C. is far too complex to break down into this kind of relationship, if you are insinuating climate change = # of acres burned.

If I want to draw an informed conclusion on this then it is obviously not climate change induced but forest management induced.

Dig deeper and you will see a correlation with raw log export (China & USA), reduced sawmill output, lower value wood left on the ground and not made available to secondary manufacturers, decreased chip supply to pulp mills and all sorts of foreign investment influence contrary to good forest management practices.

Look at the money trail.
And if you leave dry wood on the ground, it may very well burn!
—————————————————————
Russ, I have to say that that is a response that I totally agree with having worked for the Forest Service for many years. I recall a few years ago the District Manager of the district I worked in say that very thing. Definately forest management induced. This climate change hysteria is getting way out of hand.

#97 Blacksheep on 06.19.19 at 11:07 am

Crowd # 90,

“Reading comprehension is hard.
As Garth previously stated.
The market was already turning.
Housing sales were already tanking.
Govt intervention will only make a market correction worse, much much worse.
The NDP’s knee jerk reactions to pander for votes will crush the housing sales AND the economy.
The Liberals were too arrogant and corrupt to care about voters anger.
Today?
The Sheeple are happy.
I particularly love the NDP’s holier than thou attitude about the pipeline expansion.
Lets see how they are in 12-24 months when BC’s economy is on its knees and they’re facing an election.
The Liberals will be back in power.”
———————————
This is very much how many business owners (customers) feel that I’ve spoke to when BC politics comes up.

Anybody a bit older has seen this typical NDP behavior before and knows, by the time the next elections comes round, the NDP will have F-ed up the economy and will thus lose power. Add in some harsh RE price correction and the 65% that own will seal their fate.

#98 jess on 06.19.19 at 11:11 am

A Jersey trust firm will have to hand over documents relating to its dealings with a Norwegian oil baron as part of a probe into suspected fraud, after the Attorney General won a landmark battle.

Speaking following the judgment, the Attorney General commented: “I welcome the successful outcome in these long-running proceedings which upholds the legality of our statutory framework in Jersey. This framework gives effect to our international obligations as a global finance centre to assist other countries in combatting fraud and financial crime, such as money laundering and tax evasion.

The Privy Council has confirmed the powers of the Attorney General and the Comptroller of Taxes to compulsorily require the production of pre-existing documents where it is suspected that serious or complex fraud may have been committed or where information relevant to the administration or enforcement of the tax laws of a partner jurisdiction is held in Jersey.”

#99 Dups on 06.19.19 at 11:32 am

The youth should wake up read through the lines, digest the information, and realize what Turdeau is doing to them.

Instead of fixing the problem, they are adding more fuel to it. This time the ones holding the gas can are the youth puppets! The strings are pulled by the puppet master.

Kick that can so far into the future, this way they will forget how it got there!

#100 Dogman01 on 06.19.19 at 11:37 am

Inflation in Canada spikes to 2.4% on higher prices for food

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/inflation-spikes-higher-prices-1.5181092

Rate cut?

Will they ever in history raise rates?

Higher inflation puts upward pressure on rates, not downward. – Garth

#101 Lee on 06.19.19 at 11:42 am

Does anyone think Facebook wanting to create its own crypto currency means this stuff has a real long term future? Seems like a plausible idea.

#102 Smoking Man on 06.19.19 at 11:45 am

USDCAD getting murdered today on huge volume. Looks like FX traders betting on a FED rate cut

#103 Stan Brooks on 06.19.19 at 12:20 pm

#92 Tater on 06.19.19 at 8:32 am

A house is absolutely an asset. The land itself has value, the house can be rented to generate an income in excess of property taxes, etc.

Housing may be a labour derivative, but land certainly isn’t. And it is land that appreciates, not structures.

The late condo boom disagrees with you. Not much land there, driven by excessive, risky credit and paid by stagnant wages.

All you get is a nice entry hall, the rest – particularly the bedrooms are substandard shoe boxes, some 8 x 7, barely fitting queen size bed. Not much of a structure either. Coming with big and ever increasing maintenance fees.

Rent is purely labour driven.

If you think that land in the suburbs, particularly Vaughan justifies valuations of 1.5-2 millions, you are wrong.

No infrastructure, always busy highways, local mall crowded all the time, big cardboard particles houses next to each other with bad insulation, practically with no backyard inhabited by people with no money.

How is small semi-detached with almost no land justifying 900 k – 1 millions in Aurora, Ontario?

That land there is probably pricier than Mayfair in London, maybe only inferior to the billionaires row in Manhattan.

While theoretically correct that the value is in the land, you can’t justify current valuations, even a quarter of it.

Look at Chicago, much more history of wealth and old money there. Yet prices at 25 % of GTA.

Even Boston and New York are becoming cheaper than crappy GTA suburbs.

Insane, the local elite must have lost its mind.

#104 James on 06.19.19 at 12:20 pm

#72 Smoking Man on 06.19.19 at 1:17 am
Trump Nails it in Orlando.
Not only will he win the electoral college he will win the popular vote in 2020.
The left has become totally unhinged. Insanity on display daily, broadcast live by MSM.
These idiots think social media put trump in the White House.
Wrong…
It was when the left and there partners MSM wanted to normalized allowing creepy men in our wives and daughters bathrooms.

Dr Smoking Man
PhD Herdonomics.
__________________________________________
Hey Old Man WTF is wrong with you? Trump nailed nothing check the facts.

http://fortune.com/2019/06/18/trump-speech-orlando-rally-fact-check/

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/orlando-sentinel-not-donald-trump_n_5d09033fe4b0f7b744275aae

BTW The only creepy thing I’ve seen is your pool videos coveting young girls that are even younger than me and I’m only 33. You sit in a pool and video young girls on your phone? Now that is creepy!

#105 Stan Brooks on 06.19.19 at 12:21 pm

Higher inflation puts upward pressure on rates, not downward. – Garth

Not in Canada.

#106 IHCTD9 on 06.19.19 at 12:26 pm

#101 Lee on 06.19.19 at 11:42 am
Does anyone think Facebook wanting to create its own crypto currency means this stuff has a real long term future? Seems like a plausible idea.
____

I doubt it, Facebook lives and dies on the whims of Gen X and the Mils. Gen Z says Facebook is for “old people”.

#107 James on 06.19.19 at 12:27 pm

#102 Smoking Man on 06.19.19 at 11:45 am

USDCAD getting murdered today on huge volume. Looks like FX traders betting on a FED rate cut
____________________________________________
Hey Old Man your boy Donny has a protracted trade war going on with Beijing and recent indications of a contracting US economy. Better stock up on depends Old Man!

#108 Stan Brooks on 06.19.19 at 12:31 pm

#101 Lee on 06.19.19 at 11:42 am
Does anyone think Facebook wanting to create its own crypto currency means this stuff has a real long term future? Seems like a plausible idea.

It is not just Facebook, it is a consortium of 100 players that will back the currency with hard cash.

https://www.theblockcrypto.com/2019/06/14/facebooks-cryptocurrency-partners-revealed-we-obtained-the-entire-list-of-inaugural-backers/

It is a massive game changer.

Of course as the loonie is sound as BoC boss says, no need to worry /end of sarcasm here/ you are pretty much guaranteed to lose money on it.

As inflation is now officially 2.4 %, unofficially 8 +, with cost of vegetables alone increasing by 16 % + on yearly bases and strongly negative real interest rates, what is BoC going to do?

Cut rates, that is right. Welcome to the fantasy land, where economy is directed by clueless bureaucrats.

They will lie that the inflation is transitory/their usual lie and keep hoping that the sheeple won’t see how hard it is screwed.

#109 Brett in Calgary on 06.19.19 at 12:37 pm

#94 Mattl on 06.19.19 at 10:15 am
#54 ImGonnaBeSick on 06.18.19 at 9:49 pm
#16 Calgary Rip Off on 06.18.19 at 5:35 pm

“Today, 3,500 in my area maybe 5-6K in 20 years?”

Only if wages keep up.

#110 Stan Brooks on 06.19.19 at 12:45 pm

#94 Mattl on 06.19.19 at 10:15 am

—————————————————————-

Any calculation like this / comparison to renting needs to include the cost of rent over those 14 years + any moving costs. You can’t just assume that they lived for free. 14 years of rent @ 2.5K per month is $420,000.

I’m not a RE bear but the long term cost of renting is substantial. I’m in my 40s, how much is a home going to cost to rent when I’m in my 60s? Today, 3,500 in my area, maybe 5-6K in 20 years?

Paying off a home, for me anyways, is a surefire way to ensure I can live in a good neighborhood, on a good property, well into my later years. Yes, it costs a whole lot over the first 25 years, but the next 40 should be pretty sweet. You can’t just leave out those last 20-40 years from the rent vs own calculations. Or ignore the cost to rent during the mortgage years.

I saw 5-6 years ago a Toronto basement shared by 5 people, sleeping in 1.5 x 2 cells, no bath (landlord said to them: use napkins), one shared toilet.

Now they will compress it to 2 people per cell.

The Canadian dream, enjoying the cancer causing radon in somebody’s basement, packed like hamsters.

Of course rents will rise, as far as there are idiots willing to pay it in order to live in GTA, sure.

#111 IHCTD9 on 06.19.19 at 12:48 pm

Gen Squeezed is screwed no matter what happens anyway. They are obviously not paying attention to the road they are travelling on.

They are doomed to financially shoulder the social net for the boomers, all the things they are asking for right now will have to be paid for by them, and they aren’t having near enough kids so they’d better be hoping immigration numbers double over the next decade or so, and everyone is just horribly productive.

The die is already cast for us Canucks with a fertility rate of 1.6. The future is loads of long lived seniors with a giant bill to look after them. The gestation period for successful economic immigration is destined to lengthen alongside the difficulty in attracting high quality workers suited to a first world economy. This is the world the Mils will finish up their working years in.

Millennials: don’t sit around waiting for the government to fix your problems – it’ll take 20 years to get anything done, and there’s a 50%+ chance they’ll only make things even worse. Get on the road to financial security on your own, however that might look. Whatever happens, the bill will be yours: you either pay the taxes for “services”, or you pound it into investments under your own name.

Choose wisely.

#112 Ubul on 06.19.19 at 12:56 pm

#101 Lee on 06.19.19 at 11:42 am

Does anyone think Facebook wanting to create its own crypto currency means this stuff has a real long term future? Seems like a plausible idea.

….

https://tomluongo.me/2019/06/17/libra-facebooks-crypto-trojan-rabbit/

#113 MF on 06.19.19 at 12:56 pm

106 IHCTD9 on 06.19.19 at 12

Not exactly.

Boomers are using Facebook like crazy now.

Gen Z doesn’t use Facebook, but they are heavy heavy users of Instagram…which is owned by Facebook.

MF

#114 cto on 06.19.19 at 1:25 pm

“Politicians may be well-meaning blowhard crusaders, or just opportunistic vote-sucking narcissists, but the best thing they can do when it comes to real estate is stand aside. The worst thing is to listen to the kids.”

and then there is the B.O.C and all central banks for that matter just receiving their orders from Federal Governments and bank exec’s,….at the very least, too terrified to slowly and incrementally do what’s right.

IMO, they are really the ones responsible for irreversibly indebting an entire generation for the remainder of their lives. You can not keep interest rates at near 0 levels for a decade and then normalize. It’s turned out to be a one way trip. Back in 2014, it became quite clear what the 0 interest rate policies were fueling and it wasn’t a balanced economy. Now, they have no other choice but to go negative in the next downturn. Maybe in ten years they might be -5.0%.

#115 IHCTD9 on 06.19.19 at 1:25 pm

#94 Mattl on 06.19.19 at 10:15 am

Any calculation like this / comparison to renting needs to include the cost of rent over those 14 years + any moving costs. You can’t just assume that they lived for free. 14 years of rent @ 2.5K per month is $420,000.

I’m not a RE bear but the long term cost of renting is substantial. I’m in my 40s, how much is a home going to cost to rent when I’m in my 60s? Today, 3,500 in my area, maybe 5-6K in 20 years?

Paying off a home, for me anyways, is a surefire way to ensure I can live in a good neighborhood, on a good property, well into my later years. Yes, it costs a whole lot over the first 25 years, but the next 40 should be pretty sweet. You can’t just leave out those last 20-40 years from the rent vs own calculations. Or ignore the cost to rent during the mortgage years.
___

You are correct of course, and I think just about anyone would prefer owning their own home as opposed to renting. The problem comes when the cost of said home usurps every available dollar the homeowner has (as it does and then some to folks in certain Canadian cities).

25 years later the house is paid for, and the homeowner can finally start saving for retirement – but now it’s too late. The only retirement options for buddy now are kibbles ‘n bits for supper every night, or … sell the house and rent.

If that were to be the destiny of all over leveraged house-poor schmucks (and it surely is), then they would have been better off renting provided the plan was to invest the savings over owning.

The scenario you describe is the best case, a paid for house AND funds invested to retire in said house. That is probably an ever shrinking chunk of our population – but the best gig I agree.

#116 IHCTD9 on 06.19.19 at 1:32 pm

#113 MF on 06.19.19 at 12:56 pm
106 IHCTD9 on 06.19.19 at 12

Not exactly.

Boomers are using Facebook like crazy now.

Gen Z doesn’t use Facebook, but they are heavy heavy users of Instagram…which is owned by Facebook.

MF
___

You may be right, but I still think FB is doomed anyway. They’ve got big privacy issues, couple new scandals every year, data breaches, plus no one can tell Z what to do due to the structure – and I think he’s running out of good ideas.

My own Gen Z’s and their buds don’t do FB or IG – but they like snapchat. Frankly, they socialize most over their near daily games of Fortnite…

#117 miketheengineer on 06.19.19 at 2:00 pm

Garth et al:

My doctor informed me I needed to eat a mediterranean diet. So I went and got my Italian Citizenship. Picked up my Passport and I am ready to start my exploration of Italy. Dolce Vita, your article inspired me to continue the process and to make it happen. See you can’t get mediterranean food here, it really doesn’t exist. So I will need to go there to get it. Thanks Garth and Dolce….you have inspired me to make some changes in my crazy life.

#118 Stan Brooks on 06.19.19 at 2:29 pm

Deflation in action: Cherries at $11 per pound in Vancouver ($24 per kilo) and that in the season!

https://www.reddit.com/r/vancouver/comments/4mf4g4/i_am_a_farmer_and_the_cherry_prices_in_vancouver/

#119 TurnerNation on 06.19.19 at 2:42 pm

The FED is out of bullets they will not and can not cut. Cutting is a fool’s opinion.

#120 MF on 06.19.19 at 2:57 pm

16 IHCTD9 on 06.19.19 at 1:32 pm

Lol agreed on the video games.

Gen Z is still a little young, but once puberty hits they flock to Instagram for meeting people. Instagram is also heavily used for business branding.

I see it as only getting bigger. All new businesses have Instagram pages.

MF

#121 PastThePeak on 06.19.19 at 3:19 pm

#111 IHCTD9 on 06.19.19 at 12:48 pm

They are doomed to financially shoulder the social net for the boomers, all the things they are asking for right now will have to be paid for by them, and they aren’t having near enough kids so they’d better be hoping immigration numbers double over the next decade or so, and everyone is just horribly productive.

The die is already cast for us Canucks with a fertility rate of 1.6. The future is loads of long lived seniors with a giant bill to look after them. The gestation period for successful economic immigration is destined to lengthen alongside the difficulty in attracting high quality workers suited to a first world economy. This is the world the Mils will finish up their working years in.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++

You set up a good example of how, in general, SJW + government can impede solutions. With such an aging population & less workers to pay/support, there is a huge market opportunity for entrepreneurs / companies to come up with product + service solutions. This could range from personal products for health, to robot support, to more sustainable long-term care facilities.

Lots of opportunity to make money AND address needs. BUT…
– What if the government is the only purchaser of services and products (healthcare now, pharmacare near future, some provinces w.r.t. old age facilities)? How does gov’t procurement deal with innovative solutions which might be costly to begin with, but come down over time? Answer => they don’t. They go for lowest price today on something that exists.

– Governments and SJW don’t like solutions where people with money buy they first, enabling the market to develop, so lower priced alternatives can develop. They want everyone treated the same – regardless of ability to pay. So either massive subsidization (hello electric vehicles), regulation, or gov’t control (healthcare).

In either case, it is gov’t + (SJW) good intentions that stifles the solutions. [Note: of course gov’t needs to create & enforce regulations for safety, privacy, preventing fraud, …]

#122 Tater on 06.19.19 at 3:22 pm

Stan Brooks on 06.19.19 at 2:29 pm
Deflation in action: Cherries at $11 per pound in Vancouver ($24 per kilo) and that in the season!
—————————————————————

A 3 year old thread on Reddit is a very compelling piece of data Stan!

#123 Gulf Breeze on 06.19.19 at 3:29 pm

This just in. They WILL cut next month. Fed just gave permission to Trump to proceed with his trade war on the Chinese. Go Gold!

#124 Juan Santos on 06.19.19 at 3:59 pm

All this financial markets and Facebook, cryptos etc, is all B.S. Another scam called money and life. You probably will not show this post because it actually is the truth.

#125 AGuyInVancouver on 06.19.19 at 4:22 pm

Challenge the numbers instead of trashing the man. That’s what losers do. – Garth
_ _ _
Where did I trash the man? Are you claiming that he doesn’t have a vested interest in keeping the real estate bubble going? He’s president of LMS Steel Reinforcing Group. He’s a leading supplier in building what you have derided as “little boxes in the sky”. You have mocked TREB and various real estate firms as shills when it comes to spinning facts, what is different here?

I’m all ears as to how you thought one could deflate a real estate bubble without impacting property values…

#126 Hi on 06.19.19 at 6:45 pm

KAG

#127 Gotta Get Out of Calgary on 06.19.19 at 11:11 pm

#113 MF on 06.19.19 at 12:56 pm

Not exactly. Boomers are using Facebook like crazy now.

Gen Z doesn’t use Facebook, but they are heavy heavy users of Instagram…which is owned by Facebook.

——————————————————
Your comment piqued my curiosity so I did a little research and discovered the following.

Various stats indicate that the percentage of Boomers using Facebook has doubled but that the largest percentage of Facebook users are Gen X and the Millennials, not Boomers.

Gen Z definately bypasses Facebook which they consider outdated technology. (I think Facebook is designed and structured very poorly, too hard to find anything, and not easy to read with all the bouncing when a user scrolls — not to mention all the ethical issues.)

Instagram and Snapchat apparently are the products of choice for Gen Z, at least until something newer comes along.

#128 Gravy Train on 06.20.19 at 5:24 am

#126 Hi on 06.19.19 at 6:45 pm
“KAG” The slogan ‘Keep America Great’ is a dog whistle for ‘Keep America White.’