.
As he headed off to launch his 2020 campaign, Donald Trump modestly tweeted the stock market will crash if he’s not re-elected.
Is that even possible?
Sure. But unlikely. Stocks go up because companies make money. When they’re on the ropes – or investors fear that will happen – equities retreat. So far this year the S&P 500 has gained 15.1%. Over the past twelve months it’s ahead 6% – eliminating the Q4 crash of 20% that had this blog’s steerage section changing its Depends hourly. The index is within a hundred points of its all-time high, so barring Iran getting nuked or the trade war getting worse, a new high may be coming before long.
By the way, Bay Street is also on a roll. The TSX is ahead in 2019 about 14%. Higher oil prices and this week’s federal pipeline decision should goose that further. In fact, the economic fundamentals in Canada – jobs, growth, inflation – are running ahead of those in Trumpland.
Having said all that, and as mentioned here last week, everybody should expect a recession in the next year or two. Central banks are. And this is why a balanced and diversified portfolio is so crucial. The financial crisis proved that. While stocks lost 55% of their value and took seven years to recover, a B&D portfolio shed 20%, took one year to recover, and returned an average of 5% over three years (2008-10). Last year, when Canadian equities were nailed for a 12% hit, this portfolio was down just 3%, and made that up in the first five weeks of the new year.
In short, if you have a portfolio with the correct weightings – a balance between fixed income and growth assets plus a range of securities with global exposure – you can pretty much set it and forget it. Rebalance once or twice a year. Spend your free time learning Mandarin.
The point (Doug made the same one on the weekend) is that trying to time markets, or rushing into silly things like gold or crypto because you fear recession or believe Trump’s threat, is foolish. Worse that foolish, actually. It’s gambling. Don’t.
On Wednesday the Fed reviews rate, and they might go down. Up ain’t an option anymore. In fact markets are expecting (and pricing in) three cuts by the end of 2019. The only guess is whether that starts now or a little later. The dramatic reversal from a few months ago (when central bankers were still talking about hikes) is on the expectation of an economic slowdown. The Fed will cut to soften the fall and make the recession like me, memorable but short.
Ironically, it’s all on Trump. The trade wars – especially with China – have slowed the US economy by curtailing exports and increasing input costs. Consumer prices have been rising and with 70% of the economy dependent on it, the impact’s real. Now job growth has gone flaccid, with last month’s weak print shocking analysts. Meanwhile Trump’s antics have helped strengthen the dollar, making exports less competitive.
Markets are laying 50% odds that our central bank will follow with a cut or two this year, but later. Maybe not even before the October election. It’s worth remembering that lower rates aren’t good news. They encourage debt, take years to normalize, and only appear in times of economic distress.
The best plan now is to ignore Trump. He’s capable of anything as 2020 approaches. Instead accept that the business cycle is doing its thing and a period of growth will be followed by one of torpor. This is why you should own multiple asset classes. When equities peter out, bonds do well. Real estate investment trusts are decoupled from stocks. As rates touch bottom and grow again, preferreds will benefit. There is no compelling reason to leave the 60/40 model (60% in Canada, US and international equity ETFs with 40% in fixed income), to bail out of American assets, rush into cash or believe a bunch of rocks will finance your retirement.
Stocks crash if Tariff Man goes? You’ve gotta be kidding.
$ $ $
Alphonse is a 1%er with a question about my Rule of 90.
“How does it apply in my situation? The house is worth 1M and we have been mortgage free for over a decade now. I am 57 years old…. so I fail the rule? Non RE assets are over 2.8M. I am recently retired. If I should abide by the rule, then I need to sell and down size. Not sure I will be doing myself and family a service by moving into a house worth $330 000 here in Montreal. Overhead house costs would not be dramatically reduced by downsizing. What should my strategy be here.”
Relax, A. The rule’s intended as a guideline to ensure residential real estate does not end up dominating your financial picture. It states that the percentage of net worth in your house should not exceed 90 less your age. Your net worth is $3.8 million, of which real estate equity is $1 million, or 26%. You’re 57 years old, so the factor (90-57) is 33. You pass.
115 comments ↓
Quit trying to write a masterpiece and just put any ol’ crap up like I do.
I’ve got lower standards.
The cat sat on the mat…
M44BC
Savers will be punished while the debt ridden are rewarded, yet again. It’s hard to stay liquid when everyone is winning with debt.
And nothing will show the debtors otherwise. I don’t know how many times I heard ‘you won’t lose on real estate’ just over the weekend in cottage country. You can’t tell anyone otherwise. Cottages have become a major speculative play.
Joe Biden says he will cure cancer in 8 years. Ocrazio Cortez says the world will end in 12 years unless we get rid of planes,trains, automobiles, and cows. Elizabeth Warren claims to be a Cherokee Indian. Beto O’Rourke wants to tear down the existing border wall. Pigs are flying out my ears and the lunatics are running the asylum. Voting for Trump would not be the worst option.
“Having said all that, and as mentioned here last week, everybody should expect a recession in the next year or two.:
Last year you were saying no recession for decades. Any change in your opinion on gold. Its only at near all time highs in Cdn dollars. Somehow I suspect not. Should definitely be in everyones balanced portfolio.
https://goldprice.org/gold-price-canada.html
Victory has a 1,000 Trumps
Defeat is an orphan, from a porn star most likely
The opposite shall occur. When Trump is re-elected…..and he will be, markets will CRASH.
By the way Garth I recommend a coworker to your site. We are not Buffett style investors. When I referenced your blog the other day he loudly said ” oh that site that just preaches real estate and Trump B.S.”
I replied “yup, that’s the one”.
Best puppy video you’ve ever had!
People aren’t “winning” with real estate. The government creates growth in a fallacious non-productive asset class in order to tax the profit out of it through excessive property taxation.
An economy like ours that doesn’t grow is nothing to be proud of.
A debt riddled citizenry reliant on mild altering pharmaceuticals to cope in a no growth economy is nothing to gloat about either.
Good luck. Try to stay out of family court.
These people will keep the economy sound and safe.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06-16/us-governments-entire-russia-dnc-hacking-narrative-based-redacted-draft-crowdstrike
3 Yukon Elvis on 06.16.19 at 4:17 pm
Joe Biden says he will cure cancer in 8 years. Ocrazio Cortez says the world will end in 12 years unless we get rid of planes,trains, automobiles, and cows. Elizabeth Warren claims to be a Cherokee Indian. Beto O’Rourke wants to tear down the existing border wall. Pigs are flying out my ears and the lunatics are running the asylum. Voting for Trump would not be the worst option.
—————-
The reason you hear that is because it is largely the truth. With interest rates on the way down yet again
You can count on higher RE prices coming to a neighborhood near you
Oops got to improve my cut and paste skills .
My response was meant for #2 T
We’re getting close to the bitcoin update blog one of these days. I don’t expect much change in your views this cycle. Nonetheless I look forward to the next chapter in the blog about it. Thanks again for all you do
DELETED
As he headed off to launch his 2020 campaign, Donald Trump modestly tweeted the stock market will crash if he’s not re-elected.
Is that even possible?
————————-
The stock market will crash if the market believes a democratic candidate such as a Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren is capable of winning. They would bring back the Glass-Steagall Act separating commercial and investment banking activities and limit share buybacks. As well as raise corporate taxes and taxes against the rich to pay for Medicare for all and free post-secondary education.
The far-left candidates don’t have platforms that can keep stock markets artificially elevated.
Rule of 90:
let’s see if me real estate to drops another $100 G’s?
The thing about the rule of 90 is that it is a great guide but it’s easy to get thrown off track by unexpected life events. So I think I would modify the rule to state that the rule of 90 applies to how much you should spend on a house (or down payment). You can’t be selling the house every time either it or your portfolio goes up and down in value. So like all such rules, they are more of a guideline.
In my case I was pretty close to the rule of 90 when I bought, but then a week economy and more importantly the fact that I got older faster than my savings went up altered the equation. But I am not done with the house so I won’t re-balance until I am.
In Alphonse’s case I don’t think he should apply the rule of 90. He’s got plenty in other assets, making him exempt in my mind. Would maximizing his market exposure increase his net wealth over the coming years? Probably. But that isn’t all there is to life.
Interesting synopsis, Garth.
As a footnote, a relative of mine works for a well-known national pharmaceutical chain (you can probably guess which one). Anyway, he’s told me that the amount of psychiatric drugs they’re dispensing lately is off the charts. Everything from Celebrex to Xanax has been flying off the shelves, so much so that it has led to backlogs and shortages in their supply chain. Never in his 25+ years as a pharmacist has he seen anything like this. And just recently, I read where one in six people in America is now taking some sort of psychotropic drug.
Hell, it seems that nearly other person you know is hitting the bong like there’s no tomorrow. Given what’s coming down the pike, I just might end up joining them.
Good luck, folks…
In 2020 it won’t matter if the Democrats run a wet poodle, in this election people are going to vote either for or against Trump. I think that is why everyone is so unconcerned that the Dems are fielding such a lack-luster field of candidates.
If Biden wins, he will be 78 when he takes office and if he gets 8 years 86 when he leaves, making him the oldest president ever. I simply can’t see him serving 2 terms. If he’s “sleepy” now, can you imagine when he’s 86?
My theory is that the Dems have already conceded 2020 and they are turning their attention to grooming candidates for 2024, and they don’t want any of the promising ones soiled by having lost in 2020 in a contest that will simply be about one man and that man only.
“The rule’s intended as a guideline to ensure residential real estate does not end up dominating your financial picture. It states that the percentage of net worth in your house should not exceed 90 less your age.”
I keep having troubles figuring out how this applies to me. I am 93 years old, and expect to live to over 100. How do I invest less than -3% in real estate? I don’t get it!
That wasn’t even funny the first time. – Garth
This nugget from Twitter as a result of an @JustinTrudeau Tweet on topic (response 3 hrs ago by the every lively, yet precise, @222Minutes):
Justin to Canada:
Happy Father’s Day!
Canada to Justin:
Happy Fathers’ Day!
https://twitter.com/222Minutes/status/1140347810807713793
And a subsequent Tweet by @222Minutes to @HoCStaffer:
“The only genocide happening in Canada right now is that of the English language.”
https://twitter.com/222Minutes/status/1138199208895213568
—————————————–
Buonanotte e Ciao d[*]’Italia.
*25,000 Btu/h worth of AC and putting a slight dent in the heat & humidity. 40°C in Pordenone (forecast was 34°C).
They always underestimate the temperature in Italia during Summer so as not to scare the daylights out of the Tourists especially from “Paesi Freddi” like Canada where a temperature with a “4” at the beginning results in the Cdn. Navy shelling Mt. Seymour and Halifax Harbor.
178.5 debt ratio.
Saw new parents pushing a stroller today smoking weed in turns – perfectly legal.
$1.4m for average detached in a 8 months of winter weather.
It all makes perfect sense. Canada #1…because of Raptors?
This puts it in perspective I hope.
https://tranio.com/greece/adt/1798878/
Trump or no Trump, the markets will crash by end of 2021-give or take a few months. It’s inevitable…
If not, I’ll remove myself from this blog and go B & D as Garth pontificates, over and over.
TCC
“…Canada where a temperature with a “4” at the beginning results in the Cdn. Navy shelling Mt. Seymour and Halifax Harbor.”
My prior Comment inspired by (OK maybe not the Canadian Navy shelling for effect, but by somebody else’s Navy):
“Pride of Baltimore, canons blazing (typical Americans) departs the harbour.”
https://www.instagram.com/p/Byvc_-1HPc_/
——————————
Which begs the Capt. Obvious questions:
1. Was the glare of their rockets red?
2. Did their bombs burst in the air instead of in DT Lunenburg?
3. Do we need to send a Frigate up the Potomac and burn their White House down (again)?
——————————
Yes Garth, I know Buonanotte (my Margarita’s are VERY good).
“Is that even possible?”
=====================================
Sure, It’s possible. If for some strange reason, whack jobs like Bernie Sanders or AOC get elected, then companies will be making less money, which will create a major stock market selloff.
“The best plan now is to ignore Trump.”
=====================================
The next 17 months will be very entertaining. I got the popcorn ready.
According to J.P. Morgan Asset Management, the following asset classes have provided the best annualized returns from 1999 to 2018 (20 years). 1. REITS 9.9% 2. Gold 7.7% 3. Oil 7.0% 4. S&P 500 5.6%.
So, just how risky is gold?
Spend your free time learning Mandarin. – GT
I work with a dude that is doing exactly that last 4 yrs. Now he is at a piont where he can understand 60-80% of speach from next table in a restaurant. Actualy i did learn some “wo bu ji dao” – i know nothing, god sentance now day. And when we do sometinig wrong, first one who figure that other one is doing something wrong will yell “ni famge ma” – are you crazy.
There was a funy story about him and his girlfriend in restaurant when some dude table over sad this lady is dating foriner, he turned around and he replay on chanise “buddy, i am from NS, where are you from”…
And i remember on my last job employer had some old tools/dies from ancien ch i na, qon a display that were used to mass produce/copy text, aka press/stamp style.
One day engeneer and i, were walking by and she turns around and asks me, did you notice this is opsidedown?
Did you know that, i can spek chanise? Little bit-ish, thanks to co-workers. Wife does prity good with Cantonese, but its only me who. speaks croatian, all do everyone in a house knows and fully understand all shop floor croatian.
“She she” (read in chanise language), for writing the blog 6 days a aweek.
Want to learn mandarin, start with aks benny on YouTube.
“Dad, Grandma smells!”
“Old people smell. You’ll smell too when you get that old.”
“I don’t want to smell!”
“Die young.”
We have all sorts of lessons to teach our children. Some they will remember forever. Some they will forget by the time they go to bed tonight.
What is the most important one?
Well, for our children, we teach them, work sucks.
And you earn less by working, than you do by not working.
This is of course due to taxation.
In Canada, people are taxed based on how they earn their money. The self employed pay the most tax, followed by the salaried and wage slaves. Those who earn their incomes from capital gains come next. And at the end of the tax line, paying the least amount per year, are the people who make their money from dividends.
$110,000 seems to be the sweet spot for dividend income. Your taxes per year will be slightly more than $9400.00, if you live in Ontario. Compare that to $32,000 in tax if you are working for someone, and $33,000 if you work for yourself.
So, the lesson to the kiddies this Daddy’s day?
Start early.
If I had bought apple stock back in the 1986 I would never have had to work at all.
Put away as much as you can, every year. And put it away smart. Open your first trust direct investing account as soon as you get a paper route. Or start earlier with Birthday and Christmas money. Your parents can be your trustees until you are old enough to vote.
Remember the time value of money.
And yes, grandma stinks. Don’t tell her…….
It would be very stupid to lower interest rates yet again, but they will do it. Rates are still at rock bottom levels and should stay the same or rise and we will muddle through, but lowering rates again is not the answer.
“That wasn’t even funny the first time. – Garth”
Of course not, that was the point – this is a serious blog!
I remember when I first graduated from University, with what turned out to be a completely useless degree in English Language and Literature (the girls were hot, and the feminist classes were like sex education sessions), I began looking for a “job”.
This is hard to do.
You learn, when you leave University, after four years of partying and writing essays and exams in your spare time, that the world is not really so easy to join. I picked strawberries for two weeks to pay off a $500.00 credit card. Then it was off to my friend’s basement, where he had set up his own beer production line (I learned to brew beer from this dude, he is a master, I still have his pic on my wall in my shed as inspiration whenever I brew a batch).
From there, it was the streets of Toronto. Homeless for two years. Fortunately I had a lot of friends. Couch surfing is fun and educational, but in the end it is kind of pointless unless you like bed bugs.
I found South East Asia.
If you have a University degree, and you speak English, you could make around 30K per year, working as an English teacher. So then came Thailand, full moon parties on Kho Phagnan, Taiwan’s “Spring Scream-o-Rama” and two years of pretty mindless substance abuse and partying that would put a sailor on shore leave to shame.
And then I left. Back to Canada. To start what turned out to be a number of very successful businesses.
The rest of it would take about a book or two to fully detail, but twenty six years’ later, at age 46, I am sitting on 3.5 million dollars worth of assets, earning slightly under $500,000 per year including investment and capital gain income, and what was this all from?
NOT GETTING A JOB.
Words to live by Millennials.
NOT GETTING A JOB.
Never worked for anyone in North America in my life.
And I’m rich.
Get over yourselves.
Only 4 months left of the corrupt Fed liberals.
Take your 10 million to fight dirty money and stuff it. That won’t even buy you a Vancouver house in Point Grey.
So far this is what the public interprets from all these revelations to date.
1) organized crime
2) politics
3) money
4) lawyer involvement
5) low policing priority
6) announcements pandering for votes
7) lack of accountability in politics associated with said organized crime
8) denials by authorities anyone knew the scope of the problem
9) unaffordable housing on the lower mainland
It is enough to drive folks to become cynical.
“Last year, when Canadian equities were nailed for a 12% hit, this portfolio was down just 3%, and made that up in the first five weeks of the new year.” -GT
_____________
This is not true at least for me. It was down %12 as well on said B&D portfolio(now it is hardly %1 up after over a year). Yet the one, I myself managed, is up 5% and 8.7% respectively.
I guess this is my dumb luck or my stupidity. I think it is somewhat both and leaning towards the latter.
PS:Thanks to you I have learned the initial concepts here…
The weightings explain returns. – Garth
i wonder people are saying the recession will come before the end of 2021 because they think american economy is very very strong but at the same time they forget it is moving up and down based on president trump’s tweets .But i fear the market could crash within weeks not months.It depends on china if it is ready to bow down and accept everything trump wants.If china does not come to the table and make any satisfactory deal then it is highly expected the trade war will crash the market within weeks.The dow jones may come down over1000 points in a day and people will pull their money and the market could go down over 50%because it is already highly overpriced
@#31 Ace Goodheart on 06.16.19 at 8:53 pm
______________________________
Ace, you’re the GOAT.
In your own mind at least :)
RE: #35 oh bouy on 06.16.19 at 9:38 pm
@#31 Ace Goodheart on 06.16.19 at 8:53 pm
______________________________
“Ace, you’re the GOAT.
In your own mind at least :)”
This isn’t about me guys.
I’m rich anyway. I don’t care.
This is about the generation after me.
For some reason, their balls have never dropped.
Maybe they just need a shock or something.
It is really not OK to just figure you are hard done by, and then try to get your government to confiscate stuff from other people, and give it to you.
Life is hard people. It is just really really hard. It smashes you up. When you get through it, you will have the scars to prove it.
Living in your parent’s basement, trying to get a job, and then complaining that you don’t earn enough at your job, and your job is not secure enough and therefore you are entitled to some form of communist asset re-allocation is just f*cking dumb.
Come on people. Wake up and live a little.
The only joy you get out of life is by succeeding. How can you even approach that, when you have already given up and you just want to go commie and start seizing things with some dumb ass fake Liberal govt?
#21 Sebee on 06.16.19 at 7:19 pm
178.5 debt ratio.
Saw new parents pushing a stroller today smoking weed in turns – perfectly legal.
$1.4m for average detached in a 8 months of winter weather.
It all makes perfect sense. Canada #1…because of Raptors?
This puts it in perspective I hope.
https://tranio.com/greece/adt/1798878/
*************
I don’t believe it is legal to smoke in any public places.
And the parents should wait till nap time and not on the road pushing a stroller. You may need quick reflexes.
Wrong is so soo many ways.
Of course, residential real estate (houses) are a productive asset
#8 Reality is stark on 06.16.19 at 5:38 pm
People aren’t “winning” with real estate. The government creates growth in a fallacious non-productive asset class…
****************************
It’s fair to have the opinion that houses are over-valued and that the value was driven up by low interest rates promoted by government.
But it is not fair to say that homes are not a productive asset.
Homes produce shelter. Most people highly value the shelter that homes provide.
Just imagine living trough a Canadian winter without shelter.
Even in summer we need shelter. Few of us want to sleep outside or burn up in the hot sun.
When I was in about grade 3 I learned that the three main necessities of life are food, clothing and shelter.
So, it is absolutely wrong to call residential real estate a non-productive asset.
What feature more defines a City or any prosperous urban center more than an abundance of residential real estate?
But of course what are actual facts and logic against your emotional position?
Re Gold….
Turner calling gold foolish / gambling or Druckenmiller, Paul Tudor Jones, Gundlach, Dalio, Kyle Bass etc etc saying to buy ??
I will stick with the big boys on this call, at this current time!!
No Crash so long as the Donald in charge.
Lock and load on equities, dump bonds.
I would definatley see a sizable crash if a Sanders win happened. Socialism would mean a huge increase in taxes that aren’t priced into the current market. Capital would survive. Socialism can’t survive without victimization. Socialism by design is parasitical. Which is why it always collapses when the host eventually dies ex: Russia and China. The permanence of that occurrence is debatable. Human nature always prevails. It’s the time frame that’s impossible to fore see. Hong Kong is a great example.
If Trump nuked Iran it would eliminate uncertainty and the market would likely explode, up, thermonuclear. A super-dominate USA is great for business world wide. Iran is run by mad men. The world would be far better off without the UN advocating for terror.
On the debate for “balanced” portfolios. EMT is antiquated. Although entire indexes laden with flea bitten dogs languish in a recovery, the great stocks power ahead much faster. Crashes don’t eliminate cash flow from dividends. But the great companies and reinvest . Eliminating beta is not nessecary if your time frame is decades.
Love everyone you meet no matter what. It’s pure happiness. Melts your heart. Dont hate just love.
I might be having jesus moment but he was from Nictonite.
Aliens are real.. it’s going to come out.
https://youtu.be/kijpcUv-b8M
Everytime I get drunk. Not ashamed.
https://youtu.be/5cctMmb1G9I
I used to be quite sceptical of investing and was worried about the next crash that all sorts of people have been predicting every year since 2009, always based on the “fundamentals.” But they were always wrong, because the powers that be have always done what it takes to keep the markets going. And so I missed out on a lot of potential capital gains.
Now my opinion is that they will do ANYTHING, and I mean ANYTHING, to keep the stock markets propped up. There will be no Trump Crash, or any crash at all. At the first signs of said crash, intervention will take place.
QE4 is waiting in the wings. And QE5, and QE6 if necessary. Negative interest rates beckon. Haven’t even had those in North America yet. Anything it takes. Anything. Things you haven’t even dreamed of yet will be done to save the markets.
Here’s How Far Millennials Need House Prices To Fall In Canadian Cities.
https://apple.news/AYFBzrT15Tb2PrIS6qUuD8A
Eventually even complacent millennial Canadian sheep will wake up and demand action from the corrupt puppet clowns they elect.
Honestly the NDP is the only hope for them at this point.
If you are a millennial I highly recommend listening to Pink Floyd – Animals. It opened my eyes in 1981.
“Stocks crash if Tariff Man goes? You’ve gotta be kidding.”
– – – – – – – – – – – – – –
See:
“Experts Wrong Again: Trump Tariffs Have Not Penalized American Consumers”
(American Thinker, June 16, 2019)
https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2019/06/experts_wrong_again_trump_tariffs_have_not_penalized_american_consumers.html
Was saving this for ill informed Merkel acolytes (German Hillary to me and Trump) – finally, she does something worthy of the Center-Right.
The headline reads (“us” = Italia):
“Merkel sends us the migrants: “Stunned and sedated on the plane”
…about 4,600 of them so far.
If the Cdn. Gov. did that, there would be a N. American Lefty MSM indignity, Twitter maelstrom, the size of the Great Outdoors.
Yet, not a whimper. Only the sound of loud pin drops.
http://www.ilgiornale.it/news/politica/merkel-ci-manda-i-migranti-storditi-e-sedati-sullaereo-1711825.html
DELETED
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grandiosity
Ah yes, Trump grandiosity, one of his many flagrant aspects of narcissism on display once again. What worries me besides a sociopath running the WH… ok, that’s it. A sociopath running the WH who has no moral compass, no differentiation or recognition between right and wrong, everything is a zero sum game, I can go on but seriously, read the link and chase the related links. There is no safety or market security with a man of this kind of mental instability in office.
Its not the fact that Trump has a personality disorder… a mental health condition… is not mentally healthy… is there another way of putting this? One cannot have someone with NPD as president and expect it to end well. He’s 2.5 years in now and we no longer have executive branch press briefings in the U.S. . (we’ve had 2 this year and may not see another)
The dollar is strong as a consequence of strong market fundamentals persay, strong borrowed government spending, but this is all rear view mirror and if this trade war with China escalates, we will see China head into recession very possibly taking the world with it. We could also see the U.S. head into war with Iran and in this backdrop of the U.S. in a war and the the world headed for recession (taking the U. S. with it or the U.S. has one by itself), Russia draws a new map for itself and advances to and holds the Carpathian and Balkan mountains, occupying all nations of this mountain range and all nations east spinning Europe into war:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carpathian_Mountains
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Balkan_Mountains
This means that:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-FAXChHohQeg/TuAuBb43bkI/AAAAAAAACr8/G7hSy8-xnx4/s1600/europe-political-map.gif
Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Belarus, Ukraine, Slovakia, Moldova, Romania, Bulgaria will be invaded by Russia and occupied and its not so crazy or difficult as one might think. The common thread that runs through these nations is language:
Ukraine: 17.3% Russian, 42 million
Latvia: 25.2% Russian, 1.9 million
Estonia: 24.8% Russian, 1.3 million
Lithuania: 5.6% Russian, 2.8 million
Belarus: 8.3% Russian, 9.5 million
Moldova: 4.1% Russian, 3.35 million
Kazakhstan: 21.5% Russian, 18.4 million
Total: 78.75 million with 17% Russian speaking
Like Hitler, Putin will use language as a reason to invade. First phase, 7 nations, invasion will be potentially quick and easy occupation of 78.75 million with 17% assumed allies. The second phase is a question mark. It could be seamless within weeks depending on the levels of success and alliances within the first phase.
There will be few alliances if any in the second phase and it will be all out war. Mountains will become natural defense barriers that are pivotal in Russia holding invaded nations of the first phase and the Dinartic Alps within the second phase and is the sole reason for invasion initially (defense against Europe).
The nations involved in the second phase are:
Hungary, Croatia, Bosnia, Serbia, Montenegro, Macedonia and Albania using the Denartic Alps as a defense against European Aggression. Poland, Slovakia, Croatia and the plains of Hungary become bloody battle grounds should Europe try to defend its eastern allies with or without U.S. support.
No Russian spoken languages in these phase 2 nations will create a major strategic challenge against Russia:
Romania: 20 million, no Russian language in demographics. Carpathian mountains run through the center of Romania, needed for defense of phase 1 nations.
Hungary: 9.8 million
Croatia: 4.1 million
Bosnia: 3.5 million
Serbia: 7 million
Montenegro: 700,000
Macedonia: 2.1 million
Albania: 2.9 million
Bulgaria: 7 million
Total: 37.1 million
Some will read this and say “who cares?” Putin is counting on that. Of course, NATO will never go for that but there won’t be a NATO if Trump has a say and the hope for Putin is that the U.S. through Trump will be too distracted by a war with Iran and recession to care. He’s hoping the same with China. Trump presumably won’t last but buy enough time to complete one or both phases of war and if Trump remains a propped up president with illegal elections and oil support, Putin will have the time (and big oil and defense will. U.S. big oil has much to gain united with Putin and Saudi’s… power and profit but greed is so blinding).
Putin and Trump have 1.5 years to play this war card. Trump has been groomed for it and knows of Putin’s plans (we’ll, first phase). My best guess at this point is that the U.S. /China trade war is engineered because of it and U.S. intelligence agencies are aware but could still be powerless to stop it outside of assassination or coup and I think that’s doubtful. Trump is Republican.
The Republicans would go to war with Iran because it will boost the price of oil and gold and Republicans have been bought out by oil & defense corps since the 70’s . Its why they deny climate change and slow the rollout of green tech but I wander.
Republicans will support a war with Iran and they will also support Trump tariffs with China largely because trade exports are 3:1 Chinese to U.S. so the Republicans think it will so called put China in their place from past trade axes to grind and hurt China that much more and they are right. So right, it has the potential to spin the world into recession but that’s Putin’s goal executed through Trump all along.
Perhaps we can just hope that Putin doesn’t want to expand his borders (even though actions in Ukraine and Crimea suggest otherwise). Perhaps he just wants to weaken the U.S. and China to play catch up. Or , perhaps it really is that dark and obvious, y’know, Trump is a sociopath traitor with a Russian designed plan for recession and war.
I guess what I’m trying to say in a nutshell to those who manage money is… don’t get too comfortable. The last thing one should think is these markets will gradually rise for years unfettered. I’m doubtful we’ll have months.
Of course I could be wrong as I have been before. I thought we’d see inflation and higher rates by the end of June as an example but its an “if then”. If Trump escalates his trade war with China, then expect a war with Iran to follow, timed near the 2020 election and if Trump goes to war with Iran, then ask yourselves why (recession and distraction) and look for Trump to pull out of NATO before Trump loses power and a war in Europe quick to follow. Or, Trump passes away from an aneurysm in his sleep next weekend. Or Nancy Pelosi reads this (fat chance), a victim/survivor of grandiosity narcissism and wises up to the fact that we don’t have time and should impeach. Y’know, “If”.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/If%E2%80%94
#49 crazyfox on 06.17.19 at 5:10 am
….Of course I could be wrong as I have been before…
——————————————————
Wow, ya think? I imagine you have been wrong before, if you have a habit of spinning these crazy-ass, grandiose, hypothetical conspiracy stories. You’re predicting a new world order and actually believe yourself? (head shake)
#42 Smoking Man on 06.17.19 at 12:34 am
“Love everyone you meet no matter what. It’s pure happiness. Melts your heart. Don’t hate just love.” Does this new attitude of yours mean that you no longer hate Mexicans, Muslims, blacks, Jews, gays, lesbians, transgendered and others scapegoated and discriminated against by Donald Trump? Does this also mean that you disavow Donald Trump and his hatemongering? Have you given up fascism, neo-Nazism, and white supremacy? If all of the above, then there is hope for you yet! :)
#31 Ace Goodheart on 06.16.19 at 8:53 pm
The days of easy money teaching english in Asia are long gone. But yes there may still be some pockets left where you can teach english (though not earning nearly as much as the TESL heyday around 2000) and live extremely cheaply for a few years.
@#49 crazyfoxonfire
I disagree.
No, not really although good for you. My early years were not nearly as tumultuous and I took a bit longer to wake up but in my mid 60s, I am at about the 60 percent point of what you have. Retired, I have to say that the best part of my “working” life was when I worked only for me, as a freelance contractor in high tech. I found a niche and used the demand for services in that niche to my gain. That and saving 25 percent of my income.
Like Ace, I think that the youngsters need to think how to, simply put, get their hands on and keep most of what is paid for the work they do; minimize overhead, pay as little tax as possible, and live way below your means. Invest, invest, invest – now, now, now. Screw real estate. And be ready to go anywhere. The money sure does.
Whether Millennials are running their own companies (greatest risk but greatest payoff) or selling their services as contractors, they need to get out there and just do it. There isn’t time to mope about and wait for government to take care of them.
Very bad idea, today. Apparently tens of thousands of Toronturds and GTAholes will be unwisely marching on the streets today.
The same streets that are gutted everywhere with potholes and other defects because the pandering city council refuses to raise taxes to maintain the infrastructure.
Thousands may fall through the pavement and break their legs.
The liability lawsuits could bankrupt the city.
(And that says nothing about the pickpocketers and crimes that will be committed when so many Toronturds gather in one space……….)
@#47 Dolce
“et, not a whimper. Only the sound of loud pin drops.”
+++++
4600 arrive by plane?
Its not a pin drop.
Its a drop in the bucket compare to the thousands of refugees arriving illegally by boat every year.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jun/15/italy-adopts-decree-that-could-fine-migrant-rescue-ngo-aid-up-to-50000
A country which is politically and fiscally staggering from one blow to another and then you toss in the refugee crisis.
This summer should be interesting.
Immigration was the number one issue for Brexit voters and I dont think that issue is going away any time soon for the rest of the EU.
Country after country is electing populist, anti immigration, leaders.
We’ll see what will happen when Russia eventually pulls out of Syria because they will need their “blood and steel” elsewhere….. then ca ca really hits the fan.
Turkey explodes in civil insurrection against a paranoid dictator who sees enemies under every bed.
Cracking down on protests, mass arrests. etc.
https://www.economist.com/europe/2019/04/10/turkeys-president-demands-a-fresh-vote-in-istanbul
And if Europe protests OR stops sending billions in refugee aid to a ruthless dictator……
https://reliefweb.int/report/turkey/15-million-refugees-turkey-supported-eus-biggest-ever-humanitarian-programme
Turkey will once again unleash the floodgates of refugees and, this time, Merkel isnt around to accept another 1 million young men into the country.
The EU is toast.
Hi Garth!
Thank you for all the great advice on this blog.
To clarify your Rule of 90, do I include only my “net worth part” (the downpayment) or the entire value of the house?
Thanks!
Debt is not equity. – Garth
I don’t care for Trump at all but when he can put out a single tweet and cause the market to rise or fall by a trillion dollars well, that spells bubble to me. A narcissist like Trump must really have fun playing with the idiots.
#51 Gravy Train on 06.17.19 at 6:50 am
#42 Smoking Man on 06.17.19 at 12:34 am
“Love everyone you meet no matter what. It’s pure happiness. Melts your heart. Don’t hate just love.”
Does this new attitude of yours mean that you no longer hate Mexicans, Muslims, blacks, Jews, gays, lesbians, transgendered and others scapegoated and discriminated against by Donald Trump? Does this also mean that you disavow Donald Trump and his hatemongering? Have you given up fascism, neo-Nazism, and white supremacy? If all of the above, then there is hope for you yet! :)
—————————————————
Gravy Train, you’re conflating support for Trump to mean support for a laundry list of horrible actions. Can you give a single example in which a Trump policy promotes or supports:
1. Hatred, scapegoating or discrimination towards an ethnic, racial or gender identity
2. Hatemongering
3. Fascism
4. Neo-nazism
5. White supremacy
I will assume no. You sound a bit rabid.
@31 Ace Goodheart
I’ve also started 2 small companies, and have done lots of things with other companies in the high tech field.
Somehow, while focusing on enjoying every day, I did (and am doing) all right financially.
However:
1) half of the population are not as smart as the other half; (obvious!)
2) While I believe in myself and my skills, I have worked with a lot of *really* bright people who did not believe in themselves.
Ok, so not everyone is cut out to thrive, despite brains, or lack of it.
Some of the #2 group above are government scientists, doing great things, and we’d miss their work, as it may not be headline-grabbing.
The rest? I don’t know. Everyone has needs. And desires – and sometimes their desires far outshine their abilities.
#31 Ace Goodheart on 06.16.19 at 8:53 pm
From there, it was the streets of Toronto. Homeless for two years. Fortunately I had a lot of friends. Couch surfing is fun and educational, but in the end it is kind of pointless unless you like bed bugs.
////////////
You were spreading bed bugs to all your friends’ places?
#59 Sail Away on 06.17.19 at 9:34 am
#51 Gravy Train on 06.17.19 at 6:50 am
#42 Smoking Man on 06.17.19 at 12:34 am
“Love everyone you meet no matter what. It’s pure happiness. Melts your heart. Don’t hate just love.”
Does this new attitude of yours mean that you no longer hate Mexicans, Muslims, blacks, Jews, gays, lesbians, transgendered and others scapegoated and discriminated against by Donald Trump? Does this also mean that you disavow Donald Trump and his hatemongering? Have you given up fascism, neo-Nazism, and white supremacy? If all of the above, then there is hope for you yet! :)
—————————————————
Gravy Train, you’re conflating support for Trump to mean support for a laundry list of horrible actions. Can you give a single example in which a Trump policy promotes or supports:
1. Hatred, scapegoating or discrimination towards an ethnic, racial or gender identity
2. Hatemongering
3. Fascism
4. Neo-nazism
5. White supremacy
I will assume no. You sound a bit rabid.
————————————————————–
Muslim travel ban fits for all 5. Thanks for being dumb.
Thank you Garth for the clarification on Rule 90.
I went astray by thinking absolute numbers rather than percentage.
#49 Crazyfox
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XVSRm80WzZk
This just in from the CBC:
“In an impromptu news scrum on the banks of the Rideau canal this morning Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced amendments to Bill C-48, the controversial west coast oil tanker ban. The Prime Minister stated:
“Today we take another step towards protecting our Canadian watershed and ridding the world of plastics in our oceans. I proudly announce additional amendments to Bill C-48 to include a complete ban on plastic kayaks, canoes, punts, life rafts and inflatable boats. Certain umiaks will be unaffected.”
We needed to act immediately to this emergency as a just released government report shows that 99.8% of those plastic items find their way into the lakes, rivers, streams and oceans of Canada.”
The Prime Minister added: “To aid in the transition away from plastic watercraft we have commissioned SNC-Lavalin’s to design and build plans for paper watercraft. These designs can be downloaded for free on the federal governments website :
http://www.gov.ca/origami/paper_watercaft_designs/snc_lavalin
The CBC contacted the two premiers of BC for comment on the amendments to the Tanker Ban bill. Both expressed outrage that only certain umiaks were to be banned and wanted all umiaks out of Canadian waters. They both stated that they will take this outrageous environmental insult to the Supreme Court where they will demonstrate further outrage.
In follow up comments Environment and Climate Minister Catherine McKenna had this to say about the Prime Minister’s suprise announcement:
“Crap. Not again…”
-30-
I disagree with Garth on a few points:
1) Central bank short term interest rates are moving lower, and it will be a *very* long time before they rise again. They tried to do it after 10 years, and it piddled out at a pretty low ceiling.
2) QE or other forms of monetizing debt will be pulled by all CB’s as soon as a recession or significant stock market fall occurs. The framework for this is likely already being worked by the Fed.
——————
#44 Gregor Samsa on 06.17.19 at 1:14 am
…
Now my opinion is that they will do ANYTHING, and I mean ANYTHING, to keep the stock markets propped up. There will be no Trump Crash, or any crash at all. At the first signs of said crash, intervention will take place.
QE4 is waiting in the wings. And QE5, and QE6 if necessary. Negative interest rates beckon. Haven’t even had those in North America yet. Anything it takes. Anything. Things you haven’t even dreamed of yet will be done to save the markets.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
I believe there will be stock market corrections (often steep) as the lowering of interest rates and QE won’t quickly right the ship. This is independent of who is in the oval office.
I do agree that CB’s and gov’ts will do ANYTHING though. Kicking the can down the road is now accepted as the only policy action that can be done. “No recession on my watch, damn the consequences” might was well printed on every CB and politician’s tee shirt…
#62 Tater on 06.17.19 at 9:54 am
#59 Sail Away on 06.17.19 at 9:34 am
#51 Gravy Train on 06.17.19 at 6:50 am
—————————————————
Gravy Train, you’re conflating support for Trump to mean support for a laundry list of horrible actions. Can you give a single example in which a Trump policy promotes or supports:
1. Hatred, scapegoating or discrimination towards an ethnic, racial or gender identity
2. Hatemongering
3. Fascism
4. Neo-nazism
5. White supremacy
I will assume no. You sound a bit rabid.
————————————————————–
Muslim travel ban fits for all 5. Thanks for being dumb.
—————————————–
Wrong. That targeted countries based on terrorism concerns.
I’ll agree if you find one. I’ve looked hard and have found no instance.
This apparently shouldn’t be hard. Try again.
#55 50 YEARS OF MAPLE LEAF INCOMPETENCE! on 06.17.19 at 8:32 am
Lol we went from Toronto sports to just Toronto. It’s hard to keep up with these mobile goal posts.
Anyways, Tons of people having a good time in the nice weather.
How terrible.
Just admit you are jealous and we can move along already.
MF
Just read today’s post.
Rates going down again should surprise no one.
It’s hard believing in the business cycle when we were told everything was doing well for years while rates stayed at literal zero.
Credibility was lost long ago.
MF
56 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.17.19 at 8:32 am
“The eu is toast”.
-agreed on that one Fartz. Just a matter of time.
MF
I’m a bit confused by the rule of 90. If someone has only $200K in net worth and half of it is from real estate, then if they are under 40 they pass. But it doesn’t speak to the liability side. What if the property is worth $1MM, implying $900K in mortgage debt. That would mean $100K in financial assets and $100K in RE equity, passing the ratio, but yet the exposure to real estate is $1MM (leveraged).
Or is the rule not meant to capture that, just meant to talk about how you balance your equity (ie if ratio is out, rebalance and invest in financials)?
Thanks for everything!
Sincerely, slightly confused
The time is not right yet for the economic collapse 2.0. Simply additional Braxton Hicks and talks of such. Further gestation required for the New World Order.
#39 KJ on 06.16.19 at 10:50 pm
Re Gold….
Turner calling gold foolish / gambling or Druckenmiller, Paul Tudor Jones, Gundlach, Dalio, Kyle Bass etc etc saying to buy ??
I will stick with the big boys on this call, at this current time!!
——————————————————————
When did they make the call? The entry point was in September. HEP is up 30%. Time to cash in. Maybe that’s what they’re doing.
#51 Gravy Train on 06.17.19 at 6:50 am
#42 Smoking Man on 06.17.19 at 12:34 am
“Love everyone you meet no matter what. It’s pure happiness. Melts your heart. Don’t hate just love.”
Does this new attitude of yours mean that you no longer hate Mexicans, Muslims, blacks, Jews, gays, lesbians, transgendered and others scapegoated and discriminated against by Donald Trump? Does this also mean that you disavow Donald Trump and his hatemongering?
—
You have a special understanding of *love everyone* if it excludes some, or any. It is easy to love someone who you love already. Try to love someone you hate.
Debt isn’t merely an abstraction, someone will have to carry the costs of out of control social spending. And since the debt crisis is playing out as a moral drama, a regime of totalitarianism is on the horizon. Step aside Capitalism, the bad bitch called Totalitarianism is on the doorstep, roll the red carpet for the real Scarlet Harlot.
This post should be a little bit more meaningful than my throwaway post at number one.
Ah, who am a kidding, I’m a blue collar bum on a financial site, all my posts are throwaways…
M44BC
“Visualizing The World’s 100 Most Valuable Brands in 2019.
Think of your favorite brand. If it’s a Big Tech company, like Apple or Microsoft, it may be worth something! That’s the takeaway from Forbes magazine’s latest list of the world’s 100 most valuable brands. For this annual report, Forbes estimated the contribution of each company’s earnings from its brand, for companies with a significant presence in the United States (See the complete methodology here).
Only three companies have brand values over $100B — and they are all in technology.
Six of the top seven most valuable brands are in tech.
Apple’s brand ($205.5B) is worth nearly four times more than the most valuable non-tech brand, Coca-Cola ($59.2B).
The list of the five most valuable brands is unchanged since last year, and those companies are all in tech.
Our visualization uses a bubble chart to compare valuations of the top 100 brands. The size of each brand’s bubble is proportional to its brand valuation. Colors indicate which of the 18 industries the brand belongs to. Use the legends below to look up the scale of the bubbles and the color used for each industry.
Among the top ten most valuable brands, there are only two changes from last year — see our visualization of 2018’s brand list here. First, McDonald’s made the list at number 10, replacing AT&T (now at number 11). Second, Amazon and Facebook switched places for 2019 at ranks 4 and 5, respectively. It was not Facebook’s best year — more on that later.
The World’s Top Ten Most Valuable Brands in 2019
1. Apple (Technology): $205.5B
2. Google (Technology): $167.7B
3. Microsoft (Technology): $125.3B
4. Amazon (Technology): $97.0B
5. Facebook (Technology): $88.9B
6. Coca-Cola (Beverages): 59.2B
7. Samsung (Technology): $53.1B
8. Disney (Leisure): $52.2B
9. Toyota (Automotive): $44.6B
10. McDonald’s (Restaurants): $43.8B
Brands with the Biggest One-Year Gain in Value
1. Amazon (Technology): +37%
2. Netflix (Technology): +34%
3. Google (Technology): +27%
4. Adobe (Technology): +27%
5. Gucci (Luxury): +24%
Given those minor changes in placement from last year, the biggest takeaway from this Forbes data is the continuing dominance of tech companies in brand value. Among the top 25 most valuable brands, 11 are in tech, 3 in automotive, and only 1 in financial services.
This disparity in value between “tech and the rest” only continues to grow, with four of the five top-gaining brands since last year coming from tech. Amazon in particular had a noteworthy year, with the biggest gain in value among all brands. Its gain was enough to unseat Facebook (who fell 6% in value) to take the number 4 spot. Facebook, for its part, was one of only two tech companies (along with Huawei) to lose in brand value since last year, likely due in part to its ongoing controversies over user privacy.
At the top of the tech chain remains Apple. With a valuation of over $200 billion, it remains by far the top brand in the tech industry, let alone the overall marketplace.
There are signs of life, however, in the brand power of non-tech companies. Iconic brands Disney and Coca-Cola haven’t given up their top 10 spot yet, and Gucci’s brand value increased by over 24% last year. Not bad for a brand founded nearly 100 years ago.”
17 June 2019
Visualization
https://howmuch.net/articles/the-worlds-most-valuable-brands-2019
#66 Sail Away on 06.17.19 at 10:46 am
#62 Tater on 06.17.19 at 9:54 am
#59 Sail Away on 06.17.19 at 9:34 am
#51 Gravy Train on 06.17.19 at 6:50 am
—————————————————
Gravy Train, you’re conflating support for Trump to mean support for a laundry list of horrible actions. Can you give a single example in which a Trump policy promotes or supports:
1. Hatred, scapegoating or discrimination towards an ethnic, racial or gender identity
2. Hatemongering
3. Fascism
4. Neo-nazism
5. White supremacy
I will assume no. You sound a bit rabid.
————————————————————–
Muslim travel ban fits for all 5. Thanks for being dumb.
—————————————–
Wrong. That targeted countries based on terrorism concerns.
I’ll agree if you find one. I’ve looked hard and have found no instance.
This apparently shouldn’t be hard. Try again.
—————————————————————
“[I am] calling for a total and complete shutdown of Muslims entering the United States until our country’s representatives can figure out what the hell is going on.”
That’s a quote. Funny, that he didn’t say terrorists, but he did say Muslims.
But keep lying to yourself about what he represents and what you endorse. I’m sure it’ll improve your sh*t life.
#51 Gravy Train on 06.17.19 at 6:50 am
#42 Smoking Man on 06.17.19 at 12:34 am
“Love everyone you meet no matter what. It’s pure happiness. Melts your heart. Don’t hate just love.” Does this new attitude of yours mean that you no longer hate Mexicans, Muslims, blacks, Jews, gays, lesbians, transgendered and others scapegoated and discriminated against by Donald Trump? Does this also mean that you disavow Donald Trump and his hatemongering? Have you given up fascism, neo-Nazism, and white supremacy? If all of the above, then there is hope for you yet! :)
————————————–
Nice trolling.
Now can you understand why the working class, hearing people like you dismiss their concerns about open borders and oppressive political correctness / identity politics, might be attracted to a candidate like Trump who drives people like you so crazy you’re practically drooling spittle with the non-stop insults?
So, if Donald Trump gets the boot in next year’s election will that cause stock markets to drop? I sure hope so, as I LOVE Boxing Day sales any day of the year. Bring it on!
#71 Ronaldo
Google is your friend. P. Tudor Jones/Jeff Gundlach just stated this past week that about Gold ….
Gold Is Paul Tudor Jones’s Favorite Trade for Next 12-24 Months bloomberg.com ….He see’s it going to $1700 rather quickly. One the greatest trader’s of all time.
Gundlach said recently the very same sort of message. Ray Dalio always has gold in his portfolio and in times like this…. more! Read Tony Robbins finance book with the section on Dalio’s All Weather Portfolio.
There are many many other high profile people calling for higher gold prices as well. Sure there might be a small pullback short term but all the stars are aligning currently. Not too worried about the last 5-10 years…I am talking now. I would be happy to put a wager with Garthy boy that gold will definitely be higher in 24 months time
#timestamped
China is calling the kettle black.
They flood the continent with Lethal Fentanyl and they are worried about Marijuana? Give me a break China, get your priorities straight Chairman Xi Jinping!
https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/17/asia/china-us-marijuana-smuggling-intl-hnk/index.html
https://www.heritage.org/crime-and-justice/commentary/china-poisoning-america-fentanyl
Linking an entire country of over a billion people with a few criminals says more about you than them. – Garth
#62 Tater on 06.17.19 at 9:54 am
Muslim travel ban fits for all 5. Thanks for being dumb.
The vast majority of terrorist acts around the world are perpetrated by people self-identifying as Muslims. That’s the case even in Canada. And the barrier walls on the borders of the West Bank and Gaza Strip have greatly decreased the number of terrorist acts the Palestinians were carrying-out in Israel.
You can look this up yourself if you don’t believe it. Please remember, we’re talking people who think it virtuous to smash a four-year-old girl’s head with a rifle butt, and who justify it because “Israel has no right to exist”:
https://www.frontpagemag.com/point/272568/rep-tlaib-guest-praised-murderer-jewish-4-year-old-daniel-greenfield
It’s Trump’s duty as President to defend the U.S. against people like this. And tossing SJW-vituperation at him while virtuously ignoring widely-available facts, is not only blinkered in the extreme – it’s dangerous.
A dangerously generalized statement, which has no place on this blog. Don’t do it again. – Garth
#73 fancy_pants on 06.17.19 at 11:51 am
Debt isn’t merely an abstraction, someone will have to carry the costs of out of control social spending.
++++++++++++++++
Most likely governments and their central banks will proceed to new methods of printing money to pay for things. Unprecedented? Mostly. But anything to avoid good financial management.
#75 Tater on 06.17.19 at 12:05 pm
#66 Sail Away on 06.17.19 at 10:46 am
#62 Tater on 06.17.19 at 9:54 am
#59 Sail Away on 06.17.19 at 9:34 am
#51 Gravy Train on 06.17.19 at 6:50 am
—————————————————
Gravy Train, you’re conflating support for Trump to mean support for a laundry list of horrible actions. Can you give a single example in which a Trump policy promotes or supports:
1. Hatred, scapegoating or discrimination towards an ethnic, racial or gender identity
2. Hatemongering
3. Fascism
4. Neo-nazism
5. White supremacy
I will assume no. You sound a bit rabid.
————————————————————–
Muslim travel ban fits for all 5. Thanks for being dumb.
—————————————–
Wrong. That targeted countries based on terrorism concerns.
I’ll agree if you find one. I’ve looked hard and have found no instance.
This apparently shouldn’t be hard. Try again.
—————————————————————
“[I am] calling for a total and complete shutdown of Muslims entering the United States until our country’s representatives can figure out what the hell is going on.”
That’s a quote. Funny, that he didn’t say terrorists, but he did say Muslims.
But keep lying to yourself about what he represents and what you endorse. I’m sure it’ll improve your sh*t life.
——————————————-
Haha… maybe a little emotion is creeping in?
You’re proving the point, Tater. People say all kinds of dumb things, but a dumb comment does not a policy make.
If you want to either raise an intelligent counterpoint, or prove my point wrong, copy/paste wording from any of his enacted or proposed policies showing discrimination or worse.
Personal insults only prove one thing, my sweet little Tater. Try again.
#78 KJ
Re: Gold and forecasts. Gold is a very tricky play if you are dealing in other than USD’s. Currently gold is at $1341 US and $1797 Cad. I can see why Garth cautions people on this as it is a very volatile commodity.
In Septemeber 2011 when our dollar was near par to the USD gold was $1895 US and $1913 Cad.
So in Cad we are not far away from the high of 2011 but as the price of gold works in opposition to the USD we would need to see a drop in US interest rates but at the same time our dollar would go up so an increase in the price of gold in Cad may not be all that dramatic if at all.
This is where the problem lies with people trading gold as it is priced in USD’s and so for those dealing in other than USD’s they must be aware of this.
Gold in other than USD’s had done very well over the past few years.
I too see the price of gold going up in US$ terms but not so much in other currencies.
If someone wants to try their luck with gold I would put my money in an etf that holds the larger gold producing and streaming companies like the one I have been buying and selling over the years. Just my two cents worth.
#82 Sail away on 06.17.19 at 12:53 pm
Sorry Tater schooled you on that one. This is like people who start sentences with “I’m not racist but”… and feel the disclaimer indeed makes them not racist.
If you’re arguing that Trump is racist, but is clever and finds polices that further racist aims that don’t openly spout racism, then I think you’ve lost before you’ve begun.
If you’re saying his politicking and policies are completely divorced from one another, than I’d say you’re naive.
I’m sure you’ll look for some technicality to the opening challenge to worm your way out of this one but I suggest you don’t dig your hole any deeper.
#50 Sail Away on 06.17.19 at 6:05 am
Predicting a new world order? We already have one, where have you been?:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WVu5VtH9ND4
China is taking over as the world’s number one super power in the exact same way as the the U.S. did, through currency and trade. China becoming the world’s largest economy is a new world order and that’s all but happened. Trade wars won’t stop them now, nothing will.
North Americans, proud as they are, need to wake up to the fact that the U.S. is losing or lost its edge in tech, manufacturing, trade and currency saturation regardless of what borrowed government spending engineered market growth has to say about it. Its an empire in decline. How fast and far is the U.S. falling, they elected a sociopath (and traitor) into the WH. That’s not conspiracy theory, its fact and on display daily.
As for Russia, they will try to expand when they think they can get away with it. Putin tested the waters with Ukraine in an environment with the U.S. in a strong global position and backed off. This is all changing now with Trump. There is still a good deal that needs to happen for Putin to try expansion but so far, its working in his favor specifically with Trump in power. Go figure.
Either way, Russian takeover of 7 nations with 78 million people is not a new world order, its a nation of 147 million run by a dictator expanding its borders to where they used to be somewhat historically and there’s a chance they will keep going for strategic reasons. The smart thing for Putin to do (if Russian expansion is at all wise to begin with) is to pause with phase 1 complete for 10 years or or so before trying the second phase or risk world war but there is a strategy to keep going. (mountain defense)
Btw, the U.S. going to war with Iran is an insane move. Anyone who thinks otherwise is mentally unfit, utterly ignorant or too young or dumb to wipe their own ass.
Banks Partly Control the Stress Test
The stress test was created by regulators and they have the power to change it.
But the banks currently have the power to manipulate. It’s driven off the average 5 year posted rates. But the banks actually charge way less than the posted rate.
So, is the posted rate really a market-driven rate?
Why is the stress test driven off a rate vastly different than the 5 year mortgage rates that the banks actually charge?
Have the banks acted together to keep the posted rate far above their actual market rates? Why?
Rob McLister on BNN today said that most of the big bank posted 5 year rates failed to budge when the 5 year Canada bond declined 100 basis points.
If the vast majority of customers pay far less than the posted rate, what is the purpose of the posted rate? Is it there to impose larger penalties when a mortgage is paid off early? Is it there to take advantage of customers who fail to shop around a bit? To take advantage of lower income people? (The rich surely never pay posted rates)
I have never seen any analysis of this posted rate and its impact on borrowers.
Surely some consumer group or advocate or financial journalist should look into this?
#84 Lead Paint on 06.17.19 at 2:00 pm
#82 Sail away on 06.17.19 at 12:53 pm
Sorry Tater schooled you on that one. This is like people who start sentences with “I’m not racist but”… and feel the disclaimer indeed makes them not racist.
———————————————-
Oh boy… It’s not about schooling or winning or losing. It’s about logic and accuracy. In researching Trump’s policies, I haven’t found discrimination, but am completely open to agreeing that it’s there- if it does indeed exist.
Try again from a logical and accurate perspective without assuming I’m a Trump supporter.
8 years later and the “hockey stick diagram” rebel media guy should listen up or who you retweet
Scientist gets apology in climate change defamation battle
Renowned climate scientist Michael E. Mann got an apology Friday from a think tank that published an interview attacking his reputation. In the fight against climate disinformation, experts like him are turning to new arenas.
Election Integrity Reporting Project
By Emma McIntosh in News, Politics | June 13th 2019
Michael E. Mann took climate change deniers to court. They apologized.
By Emma McIntosh in News, Politics | June 13th 2019
Climate scientist Michael E. Mann recently settled a lawsuit against a Canadian think tank that tried to discredit his work on climate change.
https://www.theepochtimes.com/24-media-organizations-oppose-defamation-suit-waged-by-climate-scientist_2810374.html
Renowned climate scientist Michael E. Mann got an apology Friday from a think-tank that published an interview attacking his reputation. In the fight against climate disinformation, experts like him are turning to new arenas.
https://www.acludc.org/en/cases/competitive-enterprise-institute-v-mann
“Although the Frontier Centre for Public Policy still does not see eye to eye with Mr. Mann on the subject of global warming and climate change, we now accept that it was wrong to publish allegations by others that Mr. Mann did not comply with ethical standards…” the think tank wrote in part.
I’ve settled my claims in BC Supreme Court against The Frontier Centre for Public Policy Inc. on a basis which includes the following retraction & apology. I have not settled my claims against Tim Ball, who remains a defendant in that lawsuit: https://t.co/3q5YhWoxxQ pic.twitter.com/SMWrD6LxlG
— Michael E. Mann (@MichaelEMann) June 7, 2019
peter holle CEO winnipeg june 2019
https://fcpp.org/retraction-and-apology-to-michael-mann/
=========
Lisa Raitt explains that tweet about climate change
By Emma McIntosh in News, Politics | June 14th 2019
deputy Conservative Party leader Lisa Raitt
tweeted out a Financial Post opinion piece that said, contrary to scientific consensus, “there’s no solid connection between climate change and the major indicators of extreme weather.”
The author of the piece is an economist who has said he does not believe in climate change, a piece of background that Raitt later said she wasn’t aware of at the time. The backlash to her tweet had been swift and overwhelming.
“Hi Lisa — I am a climate scientist,” wrote Katharine Hayhoe, a Canadian researcher who works for Texas Tech University.
Raitt said she didn’t know about the emerging science of attributing extreme weather to climate change, but when she read over the evidence, she realized she had to take down the tweet.
Hayhoe has this type of online conversation a lot. It usually doesn’t go so well.
In an interview with National Observer, Hayhoe said she starts climate-science threads on Twitter not for the benefit of the politicians she’s reaching out to — “Aside from Lisa, I can’t think of a single politician or political appointee who has ever responded, let alone responded favourably” — but for the people who are reading it and questioning their own understanding. People tend to believe political figures and sources they already agree with ideologically, Hayhoe said.
Raitt’s clarifications didn’t end the backlash. Instead, they provoked retaliation from people who believed the Financial Post piece, including a video and post by the far-right media outlet The Rebel that accused Raitt of “grovelling.”
Election Integrity Reporting Project
Lisa Raitt explains that tweet about climate change
The deputy Conservative leader shared an article denying there’s a link between climate change and extreme weather, then deleted it after a scientist responded. In an interview with National Observer, she says she believes in climate change and reducing emissions.
What is the purpose of bank posted mortgage rates?
I said someone should look into this. I just did a bit.
TD Bank rep said their posted 5 year is 5.34% but the actual on offer for 5 year just dropped to 2.86%. A 46% discount!
After chatting with the loan and mortgage rep at TD for ten minutes it was clear that she had no idea what the purpose of the 5 year posted rate was.
She did say (probably in error) that all the big banks have the same posted rate. She said they compete on this but then agreed that no they compete with the lower actual rates.
She opined that the Bank of Canada sets the posted rates. Of course that is not true.
The rep did not think any actual customers were charged the posted rate, at least not if they qualified for CMHC insurance.
I remain in the dark as to the purpose of 5 year posted rates that are vastly higher than the actual rates and yet are being used in the stress test despite apparently not being market rates.
#17 Bruce Allen on 06.16.19 at 6:49 pm
I don’t know about the other drugs you mention, but celebrex is used to control the pain of arthritis.
FON72
Another one changed things. It said on your client card put in the three number digit code. This don’t exist, so called, and my client card was not registered, but confirmed it was correct. I finished my transaction, and asked him to give me the code. He said there is none, so hit any three numbers and your in now. Give me a break!
#87 Sail away on 06.17.19 at 2:38 pm
#84 Lead Paint on 06.17.19 at 2:00 pm
#82 Sail away on 06.17.19 at 12:53 pm
Sorry Tater schooled you on that one. This is like people who start sentences with “I’m not racist but”… and feel the disclaimer indeed makes them not racist.
———————————————-
Oh boy… It’s not about schooling or winning or losing. It’s about logic and accuracy. In researching Trump’s policies, I haven’t found discrimination, but am completely open to agreeing that it’s there- if it does indeed exist.
Try again from a logical and accurate perspective without assuming I’m a Trump supporter.
————————————————————–
I’m sure you’ve done some very deep research.
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/06/trump-racism-comments/588067/
An interesting email arrived today…
Applies to Canadian as well as American “kids”:
Written by a college student by the name of Alyssa Ahlgren, who’s in grad school for her MBA.
“College Student: My Generation Is Blind to the Prosperity Around Us”
I’m sitting in a small coffee shop near Nokomis trying to think of what to write about. I scroll through my newsfeed on my phone looking at the latest headlines of Democratic candidates calling for policies to “fix” the so-called injustices of capitalism. I put my phone down and continue to look around. I see people talking freely, working on their MacBook’s, ordering food they get in an instant, seeing cars go by outside, and it dawned on me. We live in the most privileged time in the most prosperous nation and we’ve become completely blind to it. Vehicles, food, technology, freedom to associate with whom we choose. These things are so ingrained in our American way of life we don’t give them a second thought. We are so well off here in the United States that our poverty line begins 31 times above the global average. Thirty. One. Times. Virtually no one in the United States is considered poor by global standards. Yet, in a time where we can order a product off Amazon with one click and have it at our doorstep the next day, we are unappreciative, unsatisfied, and ungrateful.
Our unappreciation is evident as the popularity of socialist policies among my generation continues to grow. Democratic Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez recently said to Newsweek talking about the millennial generation, “An entire generation, which is now becoming one of the largest electorates in America, came of age and never saw American prosperity.”
Never saw American prosperity! Let that sink in. When I first read that statement, I thought to myself, that was quite literally the most entitled and factually illiterate thing I’ve ever heard in my 26 years on this earth. Many young people agree with her, which is entirely misguided. My generation is being indoctrinated by a mainstream narrative to actually believe we have never seen prosperity. I know this first hand, I went to college, let’s just say I didn’t have the popular opinion, but I digress.
Why then, with all of the overwhelming evidence around us, evidence that I can even see sitting at a coffee shop, do we not view this as prosperity? We have people who are dying to get into our country. People around the world destitute and truly impoverished. Yet, we have a young generation convinced they’ve never seen prosperity, and as a result, elect politicians dead set on taking steps towards abolishing capitalism. Why? The answer is this, my generation has only seen prosperity. We have no contrast. We didn’t live in the great depression, or live through two world wars, the Korean War, The Vietnam War or see the rise and fall of socialism and communism. We don’t know what it’s like to live without the internet, without cars, without smartphones. We don’t have a lack of prosperity problem. We have an entitlement problem, an ungratefulness problem, and it’s spreading like a plague.”
#74 Flop… on 06.17.19 at 11:56 am
Your list only works if North America is the world. Otherwise, Alibaba does 3 times the volume of Amazon and Ebay combined. Wu Wai serves a billion customers. Factor in China and your list changes dramatically.
#66 Sail Away on 06.17.19 at 10:46 am
Sometimes its best to be direct. Why are you so rude? Do you have a personality disorder? If not, you are behaving like you do. Its not a first here. 18% of American adults have a mental health condition. (yeah, its that high, likely higher) Approximately half of that 18% comes by way of personality disorders. (the rest comes from brain damage and altered chemistry) Logic dictates that 1 in 10 aren’t mentally healthy because of what they learned in their social environment. Y’know, they picked it up off the street, at the kitchen table and in social media in places like this. My point is, can you clean it up and make your points without the personal putdowns? Please? The world as we know has far too much of it already.
#87 Sail away on 06.17.19 at 2:38 pm
I’m happy to pursue this logically (and don’t care if you’re a Trump supporter). You wrote:
“Gravy Train, you’re conflating support for Trump to mean support for a laundry list of horrible actions. Can you give a single example in which a Trump policy promotes or supports.”
You are trying to limit criticism of Trump only to his official policies, which is not logical. This is a false dichotomy. If someone has no official policies, is it impossible that they are racist or do ‘horrible things’? Clearly not.
There are other ways he spreads “hate [of] Mexicans, Muslims, blacks, Jews, gays, lesbians, transgendered and others scapegoated and discriminated against”.
The foundation of your argument is that if Tater cannot find a Trump policy to backup the earlier criticism of Trump, his criticism is invalid. He’s shown you otherwise.
This reading may help you understand this further: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dog-whistle_politics
#95 crazyfox on 06.17.19 at 3:22 pm
#66 Sail Away on 06.17.19 at 10:46 am
Why are you so rude? Do you have a personality disorder? If not, you are behaving like you do… make your points without the personal putdowns? Please? The world as we know has far too much of it already.
—
LOL… this wasn’t rude, no personal putdown at all:)
Just logical argument against the opposite view in an honest, loving, respectful manner. D:
#79 James on 06.17.19 at 12:26 pm
China is calling the kettle black.
They flood the continent with Lethal Fentanyl and they are worried about Marijuana? Give me a break China, get your priorities straight Chairman Xi Jinping!
https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/17/asia/china-us-marijuana-smuggling-intl-hnk/index.html
https://www.heritage.org/crime-and-justice/commentary/china-poisoning-america-fentanyl
Linking an entire country of over a billion people with a few criminals says more about you than them. – Garth
_____________________________________________
The problem Garth is that China and the criminals in China are simply puppets under Chairman Xi Jinping and the rest of the corrupt government. Do you actually think that the average person in China is a criminal? I surely do not however they (The Chinese government) sure want to paint the our entire countries E.G. United States and Canada as criminal entities. I was simply referring to China as the government that represents only the Chinese Communist ideology not the people.
Regarding gold (someone was asking):
In an interview with Bloomberg News, Paul Tudor Jones, fund manager and creator of Tudor Investment Corp., said that his favorite trade in the next year is gold. He added that if the price can break through $1,400 it will push to $1,700 an ounce “rather quickly.”
“Gold has everything going for it.”
/ / /
As I’ve stated here before, I have a strong bias against being “Balanced & Diversified” (at least until I have an 8-figure portfolio), because being so implies that there’s no way to predict the likelihood of what ought to happen next (at least ‘sooner rather than later’).
I’m a strong believer that timing is crucial if one is to outperform the market (definitionally, MY ‘timing’ isn’t the exact timing a bottom/top – only coming reasonably close to it).
Having said this, if one isn’t prepared (emotionally and financially) for over-sized drawdowns periodically, B&D is the way to go (so listen to Garth).
TCC
#96 Lead Paint on 06.17.19 at 3:25 pm
This reading may help you understand this further: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dog-whistle_politics
You are familiar with Dog-whistle_politics.
Did you detect any of it, when from Smoking Man’s comment the cat jumps straight to Neo-nazism and Trump?
//////////////
#62 Tater on 06.17.19 at 9:54 am
#42 Smoking Man on 06.17.19 at 12:34 am
“Love everyone you meet no matter what. It’s pure happiness. Melts your heart. Don’t hate just love.”
Does this new attitude of yours mean that you no longer hate Mexicans, Muslims, blacks, Jews, gays, lesbians, transgendered and others scapegoated and discriminated against by Donald Trump? Does this also mean that you disavow Donald Trump and his hatemongering? Have you given up fascism, neo-Nazism, and white supremacy?
#90.
I meant to say Celexa! You are indeed correct. In fact, I use Celebrex for my arthritis. My bad. In any case, it does seem our society is self-medicating in record numbers and one can only guess as to the reasons why. I’m now 72yrs old, so don’t plan on sticking around too much longer, especially in light of how quickly I’m seeing things go to hell on both sides of the border–if not around the whole world.
As I implied; good luck…
VSU, Garth – Voluntary Suck-Up – I really, really don’t know how you manage to wade through the comments every day. Sorry for #80 – I’ll (continue trying to) do my best to shut up – please keep on doing the superlative job you do – and monitor your blood pressure!
Knott out……
#100 Ubul on 06.17.19 at 4:17 pm
No I don’t. Feel free to explain. Smoking Man has
a long, well documented history of praising Trump. It’s hypocritical of him to promote universal love while constantly praising a documented racist. Read Tater’s link.
#96 Lead Paint on 06.17.19 at 3:25 pm
#87 Sail away on 06.17.19 at 2:38 pm
I’m happy to pursue this logically (and don’t care if you’re a Trump supporter). You wrote:
“Gravy Train, you’re conflating support for Trump to mean support for a laundry list of horrible actions. Can you give a single example in which a Trump policy promotes or supports.”
You are trying to limit criticism of Trump only to his official policies, which is not logical. This is a false dichotomy. If someone has no official policies, is it impossible that they are racist or do ‘horrible things’? Clearly not.
There are other ways he spreads “hate [of] Mexicans, Muslims, blacks, Jews, gays, lesbians, transgendered and others scapegoated and discriminated against”.
The foundation of your argument is that if Tater cannot find a Trump policy to backup the earlier criticism of Trump, his criticism is invalid. He’s shown you otherwise.
————————————–
Lead, you’re absolutely correct: the foundation of my assertion (actually my entire assertion) was that none of Trump’s policies seem to be discriminatory or worse, and I asked for any example proving otherwise.
If somebody, young Potato Dumpling and yourself in this case, choose to go off on tangents that don’t address in any way the single item asked, then what should the proper response be?
If a criticism doesn’t address the question at hand, then yes, it is invalid criticism of the question.
If you choose not to answer the policy question, then why bother responding at all, unless you just like the view of your own writing?
#95 crazyfox on 06.17.19 at 3:22 pm
#66 Sail Away on 06.17.19 at 10:46 am
Sometimes its best to be direct. Why are you so rude? Do you have a personality disorder?
——————————————-
Crazy- sorry if I offended you. I did find your discourse a little nutty and overly predictive, but didn’t think my response was too rude. Feel free to insult me back.
#105 Lead Paint on 06.17.19 at 5:06 pm
#100 Ubul on 06.17.19 at 4:17 pm
No I don’t. Feel free to explain. Smoking Man has
a long, well documented history of praising Trump. It’s hypocritical of him to promote universal love while constantly praising a documented racist. Read Tater’s link.
————————————————–
Well, if you love all people unconditionally, it’s only logical that you would also support them. I mean, heck, Lead Paint, I barely know you and am already feeling a little tingle.
#107 Sail away on 06.17.19 at 5:21 pm
Because your assertion was a ‘straw man’ response to someone else’s initial statement. If you had done this in isolation I would not have bothered weighing in.
#84 Sail away on 06.17.19 at 12:53 pm
I hear Trump is looking for a new press secretary. You should consider applying. I am sure the job pays well, and—let’s face it—you do a better job of gaslighting than Kellyanne Conway, Sarah Huckabee Sanders and the inimitable bullshit artist himself, Donald Trump. :)
I’ve been accused of using a strawman argument and false dichotomy, being rude and mentally deranged, gaslighting and trying to limit criticism of Trump.
All for asking a simple question and neither insulting nor namecalling anyone.
Do you know there are respectful ways to debate? Even over the internet? Consider for a moment that there could, just possibly, be other perspectives.
Didn’t work? Ok- keep shrieking.
#111 Sail Away on 06.17.19 at 9:19 pm
“I’ve been accused of using a strawman argument and false dichotomy, being rude and mentally deranged, gaslighting and trying to limit criticism of Trump.” You poor thing. It could have been worse. At least you’re not one of Trump’s kids in cages, separated from your parents, and dying while in custody.
“All for asking a simple question and neither insulting nor namecalling anyone.” Go back and reread all your comments. You were insulting and name-calling with the best of them!
“Do you know there are respectful ways to debate? Even over the internet? Consider for a moment that there could, just possibly, be other perspectives.” Pot, meet kettle!
Didn’t work? Ok- keep shrieking. Do some research on Trump. Read one or two of his biographies. Read all his executive orders. Read what newspapers and human rights agencies have to say about his policies towards minorities. There are lists pages long. Oh, and then have a look at the Mueller report. :)
# 37 Don – I don’t believe it is legal to smoke in any public places.
Quite legal – shouldn’t be, but the government was lazy and just said to follow the smoking regulations. So you can smoke pot anywhere you can smoke a cigarette. It should have been treated like alcohol, but that would have made too much sense.
#112 Gravy Train on 06.17.19 at 11:43 pm
#111 Sail Away on 06.17.19 at 9:19 pm
Do some research on Trump. Read one or two of his biographies. Read all his executive orders. Read what newspapers and human rights agencies have to say about his policies towards minorities. There are lists pages long. Oh, and then have a look at the Mueller report. :)
——————————————–
Yes, I have, and as mentioned, have found no discriminatory policy. Can you point me to a specific example?
#114 Sail Away on 06.18.19 at 9:28 am
“Yes, I have, and as mentioned, have found no discriminatory policy. Can you point me to a specific example?” So are you telling me that banning transgender people from serving in the military is not discriminatory policy? Are you going to gaslight me now? As far as I’m concerned, this thread is over! :P