Did you see the big headlines about jobs? Another 27,000 last month. The unemployment rate at a 43-year low. Just 5.4%. Over 450,000 new positions in the past year. And this atop 106,500 hires in April.
Economists were slack-jawed, having forecast only 5,000. Some people muttered stuff about interest rates going up again, with a wage-price spiral.
But wait. Not so fast.
Turns out the number of people with actual jobs last month went down. The ranks of the ‘self-employed’ swelled by more than 61,000. In other words, the economy shed over thirty thousand positions with employers providing stuff like pensions, benefits, sick days and tummy rubs, while twice that many folks became consultants, freelance yoga instructors and professional dog walkers.
Aren’t stats fun?
Meanwhile in Trumpland, the stock market celebrated weak employment data. Just 75,000 hires, the fewest in three months and a giant tumble from month-prior numbers. And this tepid performance was even before the latest round of Chinese tariffs clicked in (or the Mexican duties – now cancelled), which increase input costs and kill jobs.
Why were investors happy? Because the crappy stats put more pressure on the Fed to nip interest rates later in 2019, maybe even starting with its next decision day in July. Markets like cheap money because it’s the crudest, purest, most immediate form of economic stimulus. People borrow and spend more. Houses get a little more affordable. Corporate borrowing costs fall. Everybody’s happy and the debt goes away. Or increases. But who’s worried about that?
The Dow is above 26,000 again. All that misery last Christmas is kaput. Now just 3.5% from its all-time high. Up about 12% in the last five months. Yes, and your GIC rate is probably going down again.
Never bet against America.
Whiny Millennial Letter of the Day:
“Mandatory sucking up! I have been reading your Blog since I was just a Young moister shipped out from Toronto to Calgary to handle my first promotion. At the time I was about to buy a Condo in 2009 when I found your Blog and your words of wisdom, and have been loyally getting my “daily garth” ever since. At the time I decided to rent frugally and save and invest rigorously. I am currently 36 and my wife is 35.”
MSU’s okay. You may proceed.
“I never thought it would be me writing about the possibility of getting into the housing market but here we are:
1) As mentioned, Met my wife in Alberta, we moved to the big smoke for a couple years, decided the west coast was for us, spent three years in Vancouver, and my wife was fortunate enough to secure a position as a Nurse late last year.
2) We are expecting our first little one in December“Our Financial Picture: $380K in RRSPs, ~105K in TFSA, another 35K or so in unregistered investments, and about 80K in Cash (currently preparing for a down payment which we would also tap the RRSP for First Time Homebuyers and the TFSA to get us to 20%). My wife also is a Nurse so we have the pension as well that is accumulating for the future. My income is ~175-200K as a Director at a Multinational Organization, and my wife is at ~70-75k as a nurse.
“We are thinking of building a place in valley, having watched re-sale market soften and the developers and builder looking to make “deals”. We are ok losing some equity at first (I expect a 4-5 year melt here) but would have the ability to build exactly what we want in a home, and still aggressively save for our future. The build we are looking to do would be ~$1M.
“I think making the decision fits all the boxes. If you believe we are making the wrong decision here please let me know. It would be roughly 4:1 house to income ratio, and would fall short of the 90 rule you have spoken of for value of equity in housing. The reality is we are here for the long haul and money is real cheap! Thanks as always for your insights. – Scott & Jules.”
Mid-thirties, starting a family, renting with $500,000 in liquid investments. Good for you. But let’s not forget why you have a half a million bucks, nor that if you’d bought property in Calgary ten years ago your situation today would be far different. Far worse.
So the question is, does it make sense to go from $0 in real estate to $1 million, all at once? What’s the impetus for this? Your baby? If so, don’t get too bathed in hormones. The kid won’t care if you own or rent until she’s old enough to get a phone. Then watch out.
The considerations: first, the valley is overpriced, inflated, full of realtor sharks and, yes, the Van correction is going to spread like measles through an anti-vaxxer rally. Be prepared to lose equity the day you move in (sounds like you know this).
Second, building is a silly thing to do. The cost of new construction is far higher than buying a resale and modifying it. People who build always seem to forget the pricey extras which range from a driveway to landscaping, decking, window coverings and appliances. All that comes basically for free with a resale. Dollar-for-dollar you’re way ahead picking up an existing structure.
Third, moving into a $1 million house with no existing equity means you end up with an $800,000 mortgage and $300,000 in liquid assets, as opposed to $0 in debt and $500,000 in the portfolio. That’s a helluva change. Monthly living costs will be at least $5,000 (mortgage, property tax, insurance, utilities). If you decide to expand your family, it means another mat leave, reduced wages and more overhead. You will be, in other words, on a trajectory of decades of payments and obligations. Male pattern baldness and a minivan are close behind.
Some people are okay with that. They want predictable lives with physical and psychological walls around them. If that’s how you see the trip from 35 to sixty-five, go for it.
But, dammit, be sure.
85 comments ↓
Stuck in traffic fir the 1st time this week.
Yikes, talk about risk when buying:
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/floods-expose-scourge-of-illegal-cottage-conversions/ar-AACtPHO?ocid=spartanntp
I’ve always believed in Never Bet Against America. But does that belief parallel at some point, It is different this time?
On the one hand we have Debt to Income ratios we whine about but at some point would the same not apply to America?
I’m BDed but still wondering.
My 6 biggest Canadian Cities Housing chart is up with May data:
http://www.chpc.biz/6-canadian-metros.html
Montreal and Ottawa both hit new SF Detached price highs.
Toronto buyers set a new condo price high.
Calgary buyers scoff at strata and bid up SFDs.
Vancouver is a slow motion equity drain.
Have the “Vancouver Model” money laundering agents moved east?
#105 Mm on 06.07.19 at 1:51 pm
Housing reverts to 3-4 times income when interest rates revert to 8-10%.
We all know either one ain’t going to happen in our lifetimes!
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Thank you for proving my point, the peak is behind us. Interest rates cant go much lower, so appreciation is not gonna happen.
Rent the house or rent the money?
35 years ago I said to someone that the choice was to rent the house or rent the money.
In those days money was costing maybe 15 percent. So $15k on $100k mortgage. Tough choice it was.
Yesterday it was mentioned here about a 2 percent mortgage from a credit union.
So we can rent $500,000 dollars for $10,000 per year. Hilarious. Money is nearly free. House prices might rise if this keeps up (keeps down). Still a tough choice given $500 k plus for any kind of house.
Canadians rationally borrow more when money got free.
Shell-shocked Americans paid off debt when it got nearly free. American house prices will almost surely rise if rates stay low go lower.
As Buffett said in a different context. When it is raining free money grab a wash tub not a thimble.
I was sure, I went there.
Haven’t got the minivan yet, but I’m looking. The pattern baldness is well on its way.
Good times I tells ya!
It’s a good life.
And it was a lot cheaper in E-town than the Valley.
Yay me!
THE ACTUAL NUMBERS…
May 2019 Labour Force Survey as expected for a PEAK Consumer spending month (PQ had a heck of a month). Unadjusted, actual/raw numbers for May 2018 for comparison purposes (Canada):
Employment +367,400 (+430,300 Full Time, -62,900 Part Time).
I use the Unadjusted data vs. the statistically neutered/massaged “Seasonally Adjusted” data where you know, there are no down swings or up swings in employment over the year and Stats Unicorns by the name of ARIMA are Free Range. Rounding Errors courtesy of StatCan (i.e., do not bitch to me, bitch to them).
April 2019—>May 2019
The Labour force shrank in ON, AB, SK, MN, Nfld. & Lab.
Job losses in SK, Nfld. & Lab.
Unemployment increased in Nfld. & Lab., PEI.
CANADA
Labour Force +303,300.
Employment +385,500 (+465,100 Full Time, -79,600 Part Time).
Unemployment Rate -0.4% (5.9% to 5.5%)
ON
Labour Force -44,000.
Employment +20,900 (+28,400 Full Time, -7,500 Part Time)
Unemployment Rate -0.4% (6.3% to 5.9%)
PQ
Labour Force +38,700.
Employment +58,100 (+61,300 Full Time, -3,300 Part Time)
Unemployment Rate -0.8% (6% to 5.2%)
BC
Labour Force +10,200.
Employment +16,800 (+12,400 Full Time, +4,400 Part Time)
Unemployment Rate -0.3% (4.6% to 4.3%)
AB
Labour Force -3,200.
Employment +2,200 (-21,300 Full Time, +19,000 Part Time)
Unemployment Rate unchanged (6.7%)
SK
Labour Force -2,600.
Employment -1,000 (-2,700 Full Time, +1,800 Part Time)
Unemployment Rate -0.2% (5.4% to 5.2%)
MN
Labour Force -300.
Employment +600 (-100 Full Time, +700 Part Time)
Unemployment Rate -0.2% (5.2% to 5%)
Nfld. & Lab.
Labour Force -1,000.
Employment -2,700 (+300 Full Time, -3,000 Part Time)
Unemployment Rate +0.7% (11.7% to 12.4%)
PEI
Labour Force +1,200.
Employment +1,200 (+1,500 Full Time, -300 Part Time)
Unemployment Rate +1.5% (11% to 12.5%)
NS (direct result of Garth’s renovations in Lunenburg)
Labour Force +2,800.
Employment +4,500 (+3,900 Full Time, +500 Part Time)
Unemployment Rate -0.4% (6.9% to 6.5%)
NB
Labour Force Unchanged.
Employment +300 (+5,700 Full Time, -2,700 Part Time)
Unemployment Rate -0.8% (8% to 7.2%)
———————————-
Source, knock yourselves out like I did:
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/cv.action?pid=1410028701
———————————-
BNN Bloomberg Readers do not believe the StatCan Seasonally Adjusted Job numbers (no dung Sherlock):
https://i.imgur.com/gAhljEv.jpg
“Yikes, talk about risk when buying”
You can clearly see in one of the photos how high (or not) their house is compared to the lake level. Honestly, some people are so dense that you could sell them a house with a conning tower instead of a widow’s walk and they still wouldn’t twig to the possibility of flooding. “… it’s just been a very bad nightmare from the get-go, and nobody’s taking responsibility for it,”
Oops for the AB Employment number (-2,200 not +2,200).
April 2019—>May 2019
AB
Labour Force -3,200.
Employment -2,200 (-21,300 Full Time, +19,000 Part Time)
Unemployment Rate unchanged (6.7%)
“Monthly living costs will be at least $5,000 (mortgage, property tax, insurance, utilities)”. – GT.
I feel like $5k/ month with all those bills is underestimating a $800k mortgage. I guess that’s where the “at least” comes into play. Word play is crucial.
Here in the GTA it would be way more. I’m thinking more along the lines of $6800/ month.
Crowd # 52,
@#45 Flop
“From what I understand Global News seemingly wanted to get a contractor on film saying that things are slowing down….”
*****
Just the fact that Global “News” the lickspittle of the Real Estate Cartel was actually wanting to suggest that sales were slowing ….. is an epic shift change.
——————————
So…Global is no longer the Cartel’s B–ch?
Let’s not be silly, the subliminal message has just been shifted from one of ‘Buy RE in Van and you can’t go wrong, cause it only goes up in value’, to one of, ‘NDP polices are causing the RE market to drop, costing hard working companies and people their lively hoods’.
The next to be qued up for an ‘interview,’ is the out of work, now economically suffering family man, that cannot put food on the table for his children…
Like I said yesterday: The path is already determined, only the timing is unknown.
Can you say, capitulation?
Dear Millennial Spawn:
Calgary RE is either boom or bust.
If you’ll be living there for 25 years, go for it.
If in a few years you get promoted to some other city, odds the Calgary RE Market will be boom or bust:
50%.
Garth way, odds the market will go up:
75%.
Wait a second I thought being a business owner is what is preferable to a wage slave or government worker??
We should celebrate self employment and people taking risks.
MF
Actually lower interest rates may help the Fraser Valley as it is not as overpriced as Vancouver.
PS I though Conservatives would cheer 27,000 new entrepeneurs?
The letter of the day says they are ‘in it for the long haul’. Fair enough, but – what about the taxes? Right now seems like any property owners are in the crosshairs with the plan to escalate taxation at every opportunity. With the income mentioned, renting fancy digs would be more than possible & any cuts to income flow due to maternity leave would not be a concern.
The nesting instinct is a powerful one, but seems like this would be a golden opportunity to try out various house styles & locales before committing to purchase. Might also allow for a change in government that would be less likely to punish the successful. Food for thought.
Yes Sir.
If bought 10 years ago you are worse off in Calgary. Maybe. Arent rentals the same cost as mortgages in Calgary? If that is the case and you don’t have to sell right now, maybe that is to be considered?
I don’t have the answers to Calgary real estate. And this blog has consistently shown that you don’t either. What matters is personal variables and emotions. And that is why this guy is framing his current situation on the west coast in the positive.
I love it when he says “My wife also is a Nurse so we have the pension as well that is accumulating for the future.”
We??? Are you conjoined twins from birth? Stuff happens, people part ways. Best not to rely on women. But, wait, “people are people leave other stuff out of it”. Nope. When men deal with women, men best realize that men and women don’t think alike. If your partner woman happens to contribute, great, however don’t count on it. For the history of thousands of years, the newly dominant wage winning woman is a modern invention. As such, not reliable. Argue all you want, look at statistics.
Second, yes “building”, having someone build it for you, has problems. Maybe your builder is an idiot? The 1998 mortgage that I acquired in 2011 at the overpriced $420K(probably $180K in 1998 when built, had the flashing installed upside down on the roof. The previous mortgage owner simply coped by painting the wall to hide the dripping water going down the chimney after rainfalls in Calgary. Had several roof dudes out and finally one understood and fixed the problem. Hopefully your foundation, plumbing, electrical and everything else are not only to code but are still viable and working once the construction settles.
All that aside, people acquire properties because rentals are often very expensive, sometimes more than “owning” and most people don’t like the cognitive dissonance in accepting that living isn’t permanent its like being a nomad with a yurt in Krygystan.
Move along, nothing to see here.
The considerations: first, the valley is overpriced, inflated, full of realtor sharks and, yes, the Van correction is going to spread like measles through an anti-vaxxer rally.
========================
So….. what this means is there will be no more correction in Van. market.
Thanks Dr. Garth !!!
On the April –> May 2019 job numbers I think that the ON Labour force shrinking by 44,000 was weird, that’s for sure.
I mean, where did they all go?
PQ, BC, Florida, Lunenburg?
REPEAT here, but I liked it that Canadians are very dubious about the StatCan Seasonally Adjusted numbers, like 59% dubious (good on them):
https://i.imgur.com/gAhljEv.jpg
We’ll find out May 21 when the April Retail Trade and on May 28 when the April GDP numbers come out. If the May 2019 jobs report is to be believed, April Retail Trade and GDP should show small to modest gains…we’ll just have to wait and see.
Thus far, slow GDP growth but a still plucky Canadian economy. A good thing, despite Nutter Justin’s attempts at sinking it (and ya, he starting crying at Normandy yesterday, handkerchief so they could see him cry from far away…quelle surprise, quelle Nut Job).
Buonanotte e Ciao d’Italia (where it’s bloody low 30’s hot…thank you God for AC).
A top notch blog, able to complain, explain and receive all types of input.
Thank God for D-Day, the veterans that came home and the ones that never had a chance to do the above.
It can never be as bad as you believe.
Never forget!!
While 500k is pretty good, This couple at 36 with $275k income should really have about 900k in savings.
I suggest slashing the consumption and waiting on that house purchase until savings are 3-4 times annual income.
But a directors lifestyle is expensive!
Rat race
Stats Canada is Joke. It’s an election year, and 90% of civil servants belong to the cult of progressives. they love T2.
Almost Zero GDP growth and we get 127k new jobs.
BS
From last post
#111 Tater on 06.07.19 at 3:34 pm
Not sure what your problem is…..but don’t shoot down peoples researched opinions in knee – jerk fashion on such important matters as health.
I submitted contrarian views for others to research…and make up their own minds.
I lost my father to cancer…..IMHO the system failed him miserably.
Shame on whoever took that pic! If that pooch had a cut, the germs in the water could cause an infection, though it’s a 1% chance of that ever happening.
There is a 99.9% chance that Toronto real estate will collapse because you should hear the stories of graduates of several Toronto-area colleges complaining that they have to work for free for employers!
#14 MF
StatCan definition of the “Self-Employed”, in their own words:
1.Working owners of an incorporated business, farm or professional practice, or working owners of an unincorporated business, farm or professional practice.
2. The latter group also includes self-employed workers who do not own a business (such as babysitters and newspaper carriers).
3. Self-employed workers are further subdivided by those with or without paid help.
4. Also included among the self-employed are unpaid family workers. They are persons who work without pay on a farm or in a business or professional practice owned and operated by another family member living in the same dwelling. They represented approximately 1% of the self-employed in 2016.
-StatCan has a “tell it like it is” sardonic employee per #2 above.
——————————-
And Archived StatCan data about the “Self-Employed”:
As a point of comparison, in 2009, Statistics Canada’s Business Register counted:
a. 1.2 million establishments with no paid employees [60% of the total];
b. 0.6 million establishments with 1 to 4 employees; and
c. 0.2 million establishments with 5 to 9 employees.
CRA corroborated the above.
——————————-
Conclude on your own and celebrate away as you will.
My conclusion:
60% of them just got laid off and are on severance or pogey. The other 40% are actual entrepreneurs.
#22 Smoking Man
Per today’s BNN Bloomberg poll, 59% agree with you about the seasonally adjusted job numbers. The rest, confused.
Like you I am dubious, GDP growth rates as of March 2019:
Past 3 months = 0.27% (1.08% annualized)
Past 6 months = 0.23% (0.46% annualized)
Past 12 months = 1.32%
There is some seasonality in the 3 and 6 month numbers, still less than stellar to say the least and of course, since they are seasonally adjusted they have numbed out the actual/raw data.
Here’s Garth plagiarizing. Lol
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HGrHf16H2jQ
Part time 2nd and 3rd job to pay for the mortgage.
It will be revised down to 5 k instead of 27 k in 3 months/under the table.
What was the GDP ‘official’ growth for the 1st quarter? 0.1 % which means at least 3 % negative.
#23 Lost…but not leased on 06.07.19 at 5:24 pm
No worries, cancer will get Tater as well in one form or another.
True that the stupider you are the least likely you are to get it/the cancer but with the wonderful GMO food, pesticides and radon in the basement it becomes pretty much a done deal.
https://www.cancer.ca/en/cancer-information/cancer-101/cancer-statistics-at-a-glance/?region=on
Fake PM, Fake economy, Fake prosperity = real long lasting damage.
All those dog walkers and yoga people probably haven’t even got a paycheck yet.
The numbers are in the GDP – flat and falling. And the PMI fell last month, second month in a row. But the average cabbage head voter wont know the difference.
Post for MSU to read, please consider: So my hubby and I similarly have excellent savings and investments, professionals, excellent salaries, and we opted to move from the burbs of PoMo to a rental in Van when expecting our now 15 month old. Great decision. We’ll look into buying and putting down roots once we’re approaching school age and the market melts more. Some notes from the trenches to consider: Being in a vibrant area of Van with a baby made my mat leave easier. Social isolation is a very real risk for parents at home with little ones. Our neighbourhood (K-Cedar Cottage) is full of young families. I was within a 5-15 minute stroller walk of several parks, a community centre, grocery stores, pharmacies, quaint neighbourhood cafes, a school that hosts Strong Start, a library (baby story time is amazing), a neighbourhood house, and the Childbearing Society (weekly postnatal support classes). There is something almost every weekend we can walk to with the baby. And Vancouver Coastal Health was amazing for labour, delivery, and postnatal care (great programs at the community health centres). You simply aren’t going to have similar amenities in the valley. Then there’s the commute. We live max 30 minutes from work, often less. Those tough days of mat leave, my hubby would be under strict order to get home asap. And now that I’m back at work, I get to be home in time for play, dinner and bedtime routine. The flipside is that once its time to go back to work, finding a daycare spot is very difficult in Vancouver before the age of 2.5 unless you have priority listing somewhere. We opted for a nanny share. There will be more options for nannies and families to share with if you’re in Van. Please consider the quality of your daily life when making this decision.
#25 Dolce Vita on 06.07.19 at 5:33 pm
Or, we can focus on what “self employment” is not.
—>Unemployed persons are those who, during the reference week:
-were without work, but had looked for work in the past four weeks ending with the reference period and -were available for work; or
-were on temporary layoff due to business conditions, with an expectation of recall, and were available for work; or
-were without work, but had a job to start within four weeks from the reference period and were available for work.”
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/71-001-x/71-001-x2019005-eng.htm
Therefore,
“60% of them just got laid off and are on severance or pogey. The other 40% are actual entrepreneurs.”
^^You can see the people you referenced in your post would not be considered “self employed”, but rather “unemployed”.
MF
“Not sure what your problem is…..but don’t shoot down peoples researched opinions in knee – jerk fashion”
Agree! Just finding out that the cancer crank is also a JFK conspiracy crank, polio vaccine crank and AIDS virus crank should NOT be enough to rule out digging deeper! Lives are on the line!!! But when you read on and find out that the foreword to his book was written by a preeminent UFO crank and September 11th crank, that’s deep enough for me. YMMV. Maybe it’s something in the water?
#22 Smoking Man on 06.07.19 at 5:21 pm
You know, and I know, that when asked about their political views in person, most will toe the party line.
When in the voting booth it is a different story, however.
MF
Old rules. Pay off debt ASAP. New rules debt is nearly free with2 percent mortgage in some cases. Why pay that off. Ever.
Borrow with CNBC gurantee and invest at higher rate.
Problem is it is risky and stressful. But it has been a winning strategy.
Embrace permanent debt?
These job numbers are difficult to accept. Perhaps an article on how the data is collected and whats not reported.
Thanks
Buying Or Selling A House? These 3 Simple Reasons Say Housing Prices MUST Come Down
https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/buying-or-selling-a-house-these-3-simple-reasons-say-housing-prices-must-come-down/
#29 Stan Brooks on 06.07.19 at 5:54 pm
#23 Lost…but not leased on 06.07.19 at 5:24 pm
No worries, cancer will get Tater as well in one form or another.
True that the stupider you are the least likely you are to get it/the cancer but with the wonderful GMO food, pesticides and radon in the basement it becomes pretty much a done deal.
https://www.cancer.ca/en/cancer-information/cancer-101/cancer-statistics-at-a-glance/?region=on
————————::::::——————-
Actually , appreciate blog dogs responses from my post yesterday. Wish no evil on Tater. He/she is just trying to be helpful.
My young relative has a team of teams working on him, but several different versions of cancer have already taken over several parts of the body . It is pretty ugly, he now wants a break from the physically being cooked part of Tx. Weight loss of nearly 50 pounds in nearly 2 months.
The takeaway…..there are far more important things than a life paying for one asset, which may impoverish or limit your future.
Thanks again Sir Turner, a one man life saving team yourself !
“Never bet against America.”
=====================================
I learned that a long time ago. That’s why 80% of my portfolio is on the S&P 500.
“Male pattern baldness and a minivan are close behind.”
Love my Dodge Caravan. Best vehicle ever. Way more practical than a Porsche.
“Turns out the number of people with actual jobs last month went down. The ranks of the ‘self-employed’ swelled by more than 61,000. In other words, the economy shed over thirty thousand positions with employers providing stuff like pensions, benefits, sick days and tummy rubs, while twice that many folks became consultants, freelance yoga instructors and professional dog walkers.”
/ / / / /
Don’t forget “Financial Planners” (aka insurance and Mutual Fund salespeople).
I wonder what’s happened to RE agents? Any chance their numbers increased?
TCC
#22 Smoking Man on 06.07.19 at 5:21 pm
Stats Canada is Joke. It’s an election year, and 90% of civil servants belong to the cult of progressives. they love T2.
Almost Zero GDP growth and we get 127k new jobs.
BS
———————————————————–
So you believe Stats Canada GDP published number yet claim they’re a “joke” when you see their published job numbers?
How do you determine when Stats Canada publish the truth and when they publish lies?
Markets like cheap money because it’s the crudest, purest, most immediate form of economic stimulus. People borrow and spend more. Houses get a little more affordable.
No they dont. Affordability is roughly constant, based in the ability to pay. All that happens is the amount owed goes up. Have we not played this game before??
Which hospital is the nurse working at?
You can get something liveable well below a million in East Van at the moment, and things are continuing to cruise back down so that those that thought they would never gonna get a second chance are gonna get second, third and fourth chances.
We’re not all crackheads, people just think we’re on drugs because we smile and laugh a lot.
That sort of behaviour is frowned upon in Vancouver.
M44BC
“The kid won’t care if you own or rent until she’s old enough to get a phone.”
Not even then. Our son is now almost and adult, living independently, renting, and couldn’t care less about having grown up in rental apartments.
Trump Just Announced.
My take Equities will be on Fire Monday Sell off in Treasury..
I am pleased to inform you that The United States of America has reached a signed agreement with Mexico. The Tariffs scheduled to be implemented by the U.S. on Monday, against Mexico, are hereby indefinitely suspended. Mexico, in turn, has agreed to take strong measures to stem the tide of Migration through Mexico, and to our Southern Border. This is being done to greatly reduce, or eliminate, Illegal Immigration coming from Mexico and into the United States. Details of the agreement will be released shortly by the State Department. Thank you!
“Some people are okay with that. They want predictable lives with physical and psychological walls around them. If that’s how you see the trip from 35 to sixty-five, go for it.
But, dammit, be sure.”
Garth, this is gold! Something a father would say to a son.
We’re living in boom times.
I have seven portfolios of my own that I manage.
The one that has done the least well in the past six months, is up 11%
My best one is 21% ahead.
These gains are just ridiculous.
I can pretty much guarantee myself at least 6% a year aggregate (been doing this since 2004, right through the “great recession” – when I bought Canadian bank stocks at a massive discount – still have them).
But these gains are nuts.
I have not seen numbers like this, really since I started in this game fifteen years ago.
If you are in GICs you are getting fleeced.
Stuff’s on a tear this year. And we are heading into summer (when my US beer company holdings usually perk up and start rocketing to their yearly highs, Americans drink a lot of beer in the summer).
On building a house: Don’t do it. DON’T DO IT. DO NOT DO IT. Do I make myself clear? Very clear? DO NOT BUILD YOUR OWN HOUSE.
Builders get discounts because they buy in bulk. They can also squeeze tradespeople for better deals.
You cannot do any of those things.
Everything you do is going to cost you lots and lots of money. Your bathroom tiles. Your kitchen counter. You will pay a premium price for everything.
Everything will go over budget. The kitchen that was supposed to cost $60,000 will cost $100,000 if you’re lucky. Check the contract. There are lots of loop holes. For extra stuff. Get used to writing cheques with borrowed money.
But seriously, building a house in the Valley?
That is beyond nuts. Just vultch one of the various new builds that are being sold on panic sale by builders who can’t even get their input costs back. And are paying an empty homes tax and a premium property tax while they wait to sell at a loss. Just get in there and start vultching.
Oh and kids love backyards. Even when they are one year old.
You will see…..
Don’t do your backyard up with a hot tub and as an adult paradise. Make it nice for your kid.
#46 Smoking Man on 06.07.19 at 8:36 pm
“Trump Just Announced.
My take Equities will be on Fire Monday Sell off in Treasury..
I am pleased to inform you that The United States of America has reached a signed agreement with Mexico. The Tariffs scheduled to be implemented by the U.S. on Monday, against Mexico, are hereby indefinitely suspended. Mexico, in turn, has agreed to take strong measures to stem the tide of Migration through Mexico, and to our Southern Border. This is being done to greatly reduce, or eliminate, Illegal Immigration coming from Mexico and into the United States. Details of the agreement will be released shortly by the State Department. Thank you!”
====================================
LOL.. CNN and MSNBC will be scrambling to find some new programming for the weekend.
All the fake guests that they had booked to trash the President throughout the weekend, have now been trashed. Fun and games.
“Life should not be a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in a pretty and well-preserved body, but rather to skid in broadside in a cloud of smoke, thoroughly used up, totally worn out, and loudly proclaiming “Wow! What a Ride!”
Hunter S. Thompson
kinda the way he went out
#46 Smoking Man on 06.07.19 at 8:36 pm
“Trump Just Announced.
My take Equities will be on Fire Monday Sell off in Treasury..”
====================================
I forgot to add.. U.S. $ will soar, which will end up sending Gold back to the dumpster. Poor Gold bugs…
With interest rates heading again to rock bottom, if your house is close to being paid off, then why not focus on it and get it paid off. The Mortgage amount you used to pay will become the equivalent of an after-tax raise, and you can invest it or spend it on hookers. Your choice. I mean when was the last time YOU got a raise? 2006?
Why concentrate net worth in one asset? – Garth
#95 Eks dee Siple on 06.07.19 at 11:55 am
#51 Spectacle: I was very sorry to hear about your health situation that you mentioned. Hearing about yet another young person with cancer
_______________________________
Lost my sister to cancer. Was a long battle. TWO bone marrow transplants. Not here to argue take it or leave it as its too personal a thing to blog this… blog down
In the 1930’s Dr proved Cancer was a fungus and cannot live in an oxygen rich environment.
Keep your body Alkaline vs Acidic. (booze, meat, caffeine, sugar are no no’s which I enjoy on a regular basis)
PH high. Lemons, Baking Soda, Tumeric, Pomegranites
CBd oil, there are 100 other everyday items you could add to this list.
Fast if you already have a tumor. Lots info on web. Im done.
Remember tariffs don’t work….
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/tariffs-mexico-deal-1.5167721
The Toronto Raptors are one win away from being NBA champions!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The Raptors rock!!!!!! History is about to be made!!!
#47 Dimitri on 06.07.19 at 8:43 pm
“Some people are okay with that. They want predictable lives with physical and psychological walls around them. If that’s how you see the trip from 35 to sixty-five, go for it.
But, dammit, be sure.”
Garth, this is gold! Something a father would say to a son.
I am 65 fit as a fiddle. TNW = $2MM; single but living with Vietnamese GF in a house I bought her for $25K. After I sell my raw land in the Okanagan I will emmigrate after realizing my unrealized gains.
I was married twice: once for 5 months to someone who had bipolar. She tried to sue me for the cost of her graduate degree but then mailed me a letter saying she was going to drop the suit. I copied that to my matrimony lawyer and poof! that distraction vanished. Cost = $500. [Well, her firm was getting my bank’s mortgage business.] Next I got married to a beautiful Chinese girl who also worked at my bank. She had problems running up American Express bills on shopping sprees. She bailed after 3 months. I suspect she though I was cheating on her because I attended a closing dinner with my boss and our financial partner’s lawyer. She sat right next to me and reeked of perfume, which I know permeated my suit. Then, on the way home from the dinner I stopped for a few pints at my local. Routine filing after being separated for 12 months with no real assets to split. Uncle donated $25,000 to each of his nieces and nephews. I received my cheque a week after that divorce was finalized. [Cost: I split the filing fee of a couple of hundred; she expressed that she should have got, at least, a vehicle. Not!
I was 35 when she let go. Jump to when I was 48. Living with Ms. Teen Thailand in Vancouver. During a dispute with my sisters over my Father’s estate, I learned from one of the lawyers that “after 2 years of cohabitation one has the rights of a married person…”.”
Thai GF returns from a trip back to Thailand to visit Mom, Sis and family. Upon her return: “Honey, I know that you would never do it, but there is a risk you would use matrimonial laws to my detriment. So, you must move out, which she did.
Everyday, I thank my lucky and prescient stars not to have gone through a wallet-sucking divorce. As it stood in the estate dispute, that cost the family $400K in legal.
Indeed, while in a precarious situation in Thailand, I just flew to Vietnam and got a hotel and as new GF. The cost was some electronics left behind.
C.C. Freedom First; #50 mitzerboyakaQueencitykidd
So, Trump who by chance is the leader of the most powerful country bullies a 3rd world country like Mexico
into submission.
Coward.
Trudeau publishes more fake employment numbers and CBC gushes? What a calamity. The reason people are saying they’ve become self employed is because they’re embarrassed to admit to being unemployable elsewhere. You can only fit do many self employed contractors into a single Starbucks before the idea of selling your services to another contractor becomes painfully obvious that the only way out is to become a yoga consultant. Wasn’t this Trudeau’s own employment history? Part time everything led him to politics, and did we ever hire the wrong guy as our drama couch.
http://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/bank-of-canada-will-likely-join-rate-cutting-party-in-2020-cibc-says-1.1270281
I said the market would be 60% higher in 24 months, didn’t I? What would cause that quicker than the prospect of rate cuts as far out as 2020? The crack cocaine of market speculation is free money. Get it on !! Good companies that pay dividends and are insanely profitable will be at least 60% more valuable in the stated time. You just have to pick the winners out if the ETF swamp of portfolio anchors and albatross.
“Never bet against America”
Garth you’re naive. How are you not seeing the writing on the wall. Why are they lowering rates!?!?! Because it’s a healthy economy??
You think the market is going to support the USD in the future?
Prepare accordingly but dont say you weren’t warned.
#59 Hugh Jassel on 06.08.19 at 8:01 am
“Never bet against America”
“Garth you’re naive. How are you not seeing the writing on the wall. Why are they lowering rates!?!?! Because it’s a healthy economy??
You think the market is going to support the USD in the future?
Prepare accordingly but dont say you weren’t warned.”
====================================
Rates went up twice in 8 years under Obama. 7 times under Trump in 2 years. What does that tell you about the pace. ?
‘Central banks have done a fine job tweaking monetary policy’
……
by purposely inflating assets?
USA govt after govt is kicking the can with its debt addiction, with this current administration dramatically cutting tax AND increasing spending- what possibly can go wrong?
there’s was a time where USA muni bonds were much safer than corp boards, ….times have changed.
Jobs going to self employed
REALTORS
Mortgage Brokers
Life Insurance Agents
Home Decorators
Uber Drivers.
Until/…….
RECO suspended registrations because so many are moving into real estate.
College Opening new courses in the fall.
@#44 Flop
“We’re not all crackheads, people just think we’re on drugs because we smile and laugh a lot.
That sort of behaviour is frowned upon in Vancouver….”
+++++
True, very true.
I dubbed it the “Vancouver Scowl” a decade or so back.
The furrowed brow, the angry, thin lipped grimace, the eyes dead ahead as a Lower Brainland Lander marched ridgedly down the sidewalk…..
OR
They just exited an elevator I was on….
@#50 QueencityKidd
“Hunter S. Thompson
kinda the way he went out”
+++++
Not really.
You left out the .44 magnum slug.
Hunter S Thompson , brilliant and insane all in one package.
A shame he’s not around to write about Trump.
You will be, in other words, on a trajectory of decades of payments and obligations. Male pattern baldness and a minivan are close behind. – Garth
——————————————————————–
Don’t forget a big belly, loss of muscle mass, back problems, and dad jeans.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mkoPq5AOCOA
#64 crowdedelevatorfartz
Hunter S Thompson , brilliant and insane all in one package.
A shame he’s not around to write about Trump.
——————————————————————–
I really miss that guy. I’ve read a few of his books.
Man, what a field day he would have had with today’s gang of idiots!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OfoLKB0VZqg
“Some people are okay with that. They want predictable lives with physical and psychological walls around them. ”
Hands up everyone who also instantly thought Garth was describing MF to a T.
Only a smug d-bag government worker would take sarcastic shots at the newly unemployed.
#14 MF on 06.07.19 at 4:53 pm
Wait a second I thought being a business owner is what is preferable to a wage slave or government worker??
We should celebrate self employment and people taking risks.
MF
#17 Calgary Rip Off on 06.07.19 at 5:07 pm
All that aside, people acquire properties because rentals are often very expensive, sometimes more than “owning” and most people don’t like the cognitive dissonance in accepting that living isn’t permanent its like being a nomad with a yurt in Krygystan.
#################################
Well, except that ALL of life isn’t permanent, it’s a meaningless blip then over – thinking that renting money from a bank vs renting a rood over one’s head is a pretty silly way to think you’ve made some kind of difference. But math is hard.
@57 Fonzie’s Ponzie
“So, Trump who by chance is the leader of the most powerful country bullies a 3rd world country like Mexico
into submission.
Coward.”
++++++
Short term.
Election approaching.
The wall isnt built yet and the Democrats will be pointing that out.
He needed something to wave in front of the Deplorables as a “victory”
If it gets him votes, he wins.
Long term?
He’s lost another potential allied country in a punitive, drawn out war with China, Russia, Iran….
I also seem to recall the outrage and screaming from Canadians as our border with the US was being violated at the beginning of Trump’s Presidency.
One can only imagine if Trump decides to “pull a Mexico” and allow thousands of Central American refugees to flow through the US unhindered to cross into Canada.
Think it cant happed?
No love lost between Trump and Trudeau and the Deplorables in the US would cheer him on.
The US is rich enough to send every refugee by taxi from the Texas border to Manitoba without batting an eye.
It would be amusing to listen to Trudeau’s politically correct Orwellian double speak try and put a positive pr spin on THAT scenario.
AND of course, even with all the govt workers we have….. we dont have enough to “deal” with an upsurge in illegal border hopping.
I have an idea.
Next time the border gets inundated……
The govt can take all the incompetents that have been spending billions of dollars and thousands of hours trying to “reinvent” a pay roll system we’ll call “Pheonix” ( which ironically has gone down in flames rather than up).
And put them on the border with GoPro cameras, bus tickets and hotel vouchers to the nearest major Canadian city.
Quick, efficient, no paperwork and Trudeau is happy.
#56 OffshoreObserver on 06.07.19 at 11:59 pm
No offence but that post made me sad.
It sounds like your life is the opposite of freedom because you live in complete fear of commitment, which manifests itself in a need to “runaway” to somewhere else, typically a place where you can take advantage of people without them knowing.
Worst of all is you have to come here to tell us this to up-lift yourself (I guess?) by cloaking it under the “advice” column.
MF
@#69 MF on 06.08.19 at 10:06 am
#56 OffshoreObserver on 06.07.19 at 11:59 pm
No offence but that post made me sad.
It sounds like your life is the opposite of freedom because you live in complete fear of commitment, which manifests itself in a need to “runaway” to somewhere else, typically a place where you can take advantage of people without them knowing.
Worst of all is you have to come here to tell us this to up-lift yourself (I guess?) by cloaking it under the “advice” column.
MF
__________________
ZING!
@#69 MF
“live in complete fear of commitment….”
+++++
My personal observation….the 50 something canuck male shacking up with a “miss third world teen whatever.” is ………Not my cup of tea.
But his lack of commitment?
He’s dodged a fiscal bullet.
You can thank divorce lawyers and Canadian law for that.
Over the years, I’ve seen many a friend or coworker totally, financially ruined by divorce.
Work like slaves til they die.
And if Canadian marriage/divorce/singles stats are any indication…. offshoreinvestor’s way of thinking….. isnt in the minority.
#68 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.08.19 at 9:46 am
“The govt can take all the incompetents that have been spending billions of dollars and thousands of hours trying to “reinvent” a pay roll system we’ll call “Pheonix”
-Actually,
The previous pay system was fine, but the “elected officials” decided to bring in phoenix so they could let pay workers go and save money….so people like you can be happy.
That didn’t work out well, and now there isn’t anyone left (or many) who can fix the system.
Whose fault is that? The government workers or the elected officials..you decide.
And maybe do at least a little research before posting worthless emotional drivel about a topic you clearly are clueless about. Thanks.
MF
I’d have to second the buy existing rather than building. Not only is buying existing a lot cheaper as Garth says, but building new is a GIANT headache, encased in red tape; that seems to consume as much time as if you were out there with a hammer and nailbag building the bloody thing yourself.
One of my BIL’s wants to build a small garage, and has to do an “environmental impact” assessment. This costs big bucks, and will not result in an all clear, but rather a list of requirements to protect tadpoles and grasshoppers that he will have to accommodate (read: more $$$). He pays for the whole useless exercise.
It’s such a headache now a days, I get the feeling new builds are no more than a fat juicy steak for multiple government agencies to suck the blood out of before graciously allowing the hopeful new homeowners to proceed with their dream.
Also, consider that you’ll never build “exactly what we want in a home” if you’ve never owned/lived in one for a decent amount of time. You can’t know this unless you’ve been there already.
Here in Kanada our ruling elites never let up the pressure to divide and program us. We even can’t enjoy sports.
People poked at a CBC prop piece gushing how diverse Raptors fans oare.
At Calgary CFL games the on screen banner and coaches tshirts exhorted Diversity is our Strength.
At Vancouver Whitecaps a big sign on the field exclaimed Love Football hate homophobia.
Always the guilt trip and that we must do more. Most every news articles is Tsk Tsk Tut Tut how unfair everything is.
And we all get along fine.
All animals are equal some more than others.
The Lord on high has been watching over Canada with a great interest, and Ephesians 6:12 says it all for us to ponder.
Coffee bean currency:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-economy/with-venezuela-in-collapse-towns-slip-into-primitive-isolation-idUSKCN1T823D
#57 Pontizus Pilatus…”So, Trump who by chance is the leader of the most powerful country bullies a 3rd world country like Mexico into submission. Coward.”
May broke a 13 year old record for number of people arrested crossing the border illegally.
144,000….
Those were the ones they actually caught……
In one month…..
Every single border holding facility is full.
Illegal aliens cost the US an estimated $150B per year.
What would be your bright idea to fix this then?
And no, releasing them to vanish into the US doesn’t count.
#71 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.08.19 at 10:39 am
People get divorced for a thousand reasons. Others stay together for as long as they live.
If a relationship falls apart for whatever reason that’s the couple’s business and they should never have been married in the first place.
We can place blame on divorce lawyers, “Canadian law”, liberalism and whatever else but ultimately it’s the couple’s fault and they should take responsibility.
Tired of hearing divorced cynical bitter losers complaining and taking no responsibility. Look at that offshore guy. Looks like he never matured and is chasing a fantasy that most men realize doesn’t exist by age 20.
MF
Kinda sad to witness the end of The Great Britain Empire.
Giving the Great Narcissist a hero’s welcome.
Very sad and pathetic.
Feel sorry for May. When she agreed to meet Tump, she thought Brexit would be over and she could meet him as an equal.
Why am I overcome with a strong sense of déjà vu when I read these letters?
@#72 MF
“And maybe do at least a little research before posting worthless emotional drivel about a topic you clearly are clueless about. Thanks.”
+++++
Touched a nerve did I?
You freely admit the Pheonix payroll system is another in a long line of boondoggle, grotesquely over budget, grotesquely delayed , unnecessary, unwanted fiscal disasters ( the useless, multi billion dollar Gun Control software comes to mind) foisted upon the downtrodden taxpayers by unnamed, unaccountable govt, beaurocrats who, once again, squander billions of dollars of Taxpayer funds and waltz off , unpunished, into retirement with gold plated , taxpayer subsidized, pensions…..
Yet you call me clueless.
Pray tell.
What govt agency dost thou sleepwalk at?
The newly purchased federal govt owned oil pipeline?
Which, if all other govt mega projects over the past 50 years are any indication…. will undoubtedly cost taxpayers billions upon billions upon billions before we give it away to the lowest bidder?
Or are you a media spokesperson for that paragon of govt contract virtue SNC-Lavalin?
crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.08.19 at 9:24 am
@#50 QueencityKidd
“Hunter S. Thompson
kinda the way he went out”
+++++
Not really.
You left out the .44 magnum slug.
Hunter S Thompson , brilliant and insane all in one package.
A shame he’s not around to write about Trump.
A Sparkle was in his eye but his life was in his hands
@#78 MF
Well if it isnt the risk of Canadian Law and lawyer’s causing a massive drop in marriage and common law relations….what is it causing Canucks to avoid cohabitation like the plague?
https://globalnews.ca/news/4191139/canadian-attitudes-marriage/
I find your comments as a wow. We could be kindred spirits. I have been saving 10% since I was 18 and investing. It was a struggle to start because it was so tiny. I remember paying $200 commissions which was very painful. Thank God for the internet where I started with a 14.4 modem – you have to be old enough. I was fast to be DYI because of those commissions and online banking. Next came free advise which I find is disappearing but the banks have picked up their game. Success is fleeting but I still score the occasional 10 bagger- what a rush. However, I do make poor choices and suffered. Shares that begin with “S” are lucky for me.
I like to play juniors because the professional money doesn’t go there and leaves opportunity on the floor. Entrepreneurs are a gift if you get on the right side.
#9 Dolce Vita
Thanks for showing how the B.C. economy is rockin’! We’re in good hands with John Horgan and the B.C. NDP.