The campaign

So how, an anxious nation asks, have things been in Tranna lately? Aside from some guys running around in shorts making millions… pretty tepid.

Not that you’d know it from the media, of course. “Sales come storming back,” was the real estate message broadcast to six million souls. And that made the agents happy. They need all the joy they can get, since the majority of them have been slowly but steadily starving.

The stats reported by the property cartel this week showed an 18% increase in deals done during May over the same time last year, and a 3% gain in overall prices. That sounds good. And compared to the dismal rutting season of 2018, it’s definitely an improvement. We know why, of course. Mortgage rates have tumbled along with bond yields, and five-year money is now available to everyone except reprobates for 3% or less. Close to historic lows.

Second, we’re another year past the market-cooling measures of the now-defunct Wynn government. Over time people learn to cope with their disabilities. Third, the moisters are a year older and house-hornier, and since first-timers make up about half the entire market more activity’s not a surprise. And fourth, governments are pimping again.  The federal budget of a few weeks ago increased the RRSP home buyer’s plan to $35,000 a head, and we just heard about the shared-equity mortgage. Yay! Justin’s buying me a house…

Meanwhile prices are still lower than they were two years ago. Condo sales in the core have actually dropped and if you have cash and swagger, there are great deals to be had picking up a 905 particleboard McMansion.

In terms of the gold standard – a detached house in the 416 – the average price in the spring of 2017 was $1,503,868. Now the same place sells for $1,384,993 (virtually unchanged from last year). That’s an 8% drop. But because houses cost a lot of buy (land transfer tax) and sell (commission), the decline has been more like 16% over the last 24 months, or a loss of $248,125. Since people buy houses with after-tax dollars that’s a nasty ouch. Apparently real state does not always go up. Who knew?

Having said all of that, it’s worth remembering real estate values in demand areas like the inner GTA are highly unlikely to see a collapse. So good luck waiting for one. This pathetic blog has said so for a few years, and we’re stickin’ with it. Demand remains robust, the demos favour housing, money’s remained cheap and the costs of building/renovating/developing are crazy. (The same would apply to Vancouver/Victoria, of course, if it weren’t for the Dipper anti-real estate campaign and taxation orgy.)

So should an eager little cabbage charge off and buy in Toronto, taking advantage of these low mortgage rates and slightly-reduced prices?

Sorry, but there’s no blanket answer. Renting (yes, even at these lease rates) is still far cheaper than owning. Without annual capital appreciation there’s just no reason to take the plunge into debt, condo fees, property taxes, insurance and utilities. Get over it.

So, as always, buy if you can afford it and becoming an owner doesn’t gut your liquid assets or put all your oeufs in one basket. The big change now is that real estate  – even in dribble-crazed Toronto – isn’t a slam-dunk investment the way it was for your parents. If the most in-demand houses in the entire country can fall in value for two years, then they can flatline for ten. Mr. Market doesn’t care about your finances, instead being molded by the economy, the cost of money, consumer sentiment, supply and politics. Just look what a bunch of stupid taxes have done to home equity in YVR.

While sales in the GTA have improved from the pit of 2018, they remain below the 10-year average. There are tens of thousands of new condo units in the pipeline which will be hitting the market in the next three years. And while the Trumpster’s antics have crashed bond yields and helped make home loans cheaper, you might be shocked at how that will change in 2020. Meanwhile Ontario is the most indebted sub-sovereign state on the planet, so guess which way taxes are ultimately headed?

In short, kids, don’t gamble. Do not be swayed by the realtor-media ‘the market’s hot’ campaign. Goebbels would be pleased with it. Even Sarah Hucksterby Sanders.

Remember that rent = freedom. There’ll be plenty enough time later for entrapment. Trust me.

101 comments ↓

#1 Dave on 06.05.19 at 5:03 pm

Real Estate is crashing in BC…Billion dollars projects now on hold!!!

https://theprovince.com/business/real-estate/developer-postpones-pre-sales-for-high-rise-towers-in-burnaby-and-coquitlam/wcm/451c0cd4-a4db-48e3-a37d-386579e239f7

#2 Kurt Fitzsimmons on 06.05.19 at 5:10 pm

Our house is paid off since 2000. We borrowed against our equity back of about $200,000. We topped up our RRSP’s of $100,000 with long term government strips, zeros and $100,000 we bought 275 ounces of gold.

Now, have a little over 19 years the RRSP government strips, zeros are now worth $322,624 and the 275 ounces of gold is worth $493,245 Canadian. Lower interest rates and higher gold prices really paid off.

We made sure we paid off the $200,000 equity loan in 8 years, 2007 and we paid about $87,664 in total interest. It worth it. The primary house we still live in is now worth about $724,322 last time I checked a few weeks ago.

It seems when rates fall gold prices really jump as this week was great for both bonds and gold. The only downside is our GIC’s of $166,521 are not paying that great now 3.0% to 3.25% compared to the late 1990’s, 5.5% to 6%. Interesting times for sure.

#3 Stone on 06.05.19 at 5:31 pm

And while the Trumpster’s antics have crashed bond yields and helped make home loans cheaper, you might be shocked at how that will change in 2020.

———

Not sure I understand how that will change in 2020.

#4 6th sense on 06.05.19 at 5:34 pm

The rents have gone up at an insane pace in recent years and with demand increasingly outpacing supply, the rents are beyond affordability for average households. What will become of renters?

Buying is not a valid option. – Garth

#5 MF on 06.05.19 at 5:34 pm

“there are great deals to be had picking up a 905 particleboard McMansion.”

-Not anything I’ve seen. Houses on sale where my parents live in the 905 go for 1.2 million..an absolute joke.

MF

Are they cashing in? – Garth

#6 Captain Uppa on 06.05.19 at 5:44 pm

If I wasn’t married with kids, I don’t think I’d buy a home either.

#7 Ana on 06.05.19 at 5:45 pm

Had dinner with a realtor friend last weekend. She says she’s still very busy selling here in Waterloo region. Beyond her word, all I can say is that homes seem to be taking longer to sell in my end of suburbia over the last year and some are being marked down before they sell. Even the vacant lots that sold like hot cakes 2 years ago aren’t moving quite as fast.

#8 Yukon Elvis on 06.05.19 at 6:01 pm

The federal budget of a few weeks ago increased the RRSP home buyer’s plan to $35,000 a head, and we just heard about the shared-equity mortgage. Yay! Justin’s buying me a house…
……………………………..

Legal pot and increased child benefits. Lower mortgage rates. Easier mortgage qualification. Help with the downpayment on the house. And all that virtue! What’s not to like? Trudeau forever! Another majority government.

#9 Steven Rowlandson on 06.05.19 at 6:05 pm

Rent is not freedom. You have to pay a lot for the privilege of having a roof over your head and no ownership.

#10 tccontrarian on 06.05.19 at 6:08 pm

#2 Kurt…

“The primary house we still live in is now worth about $724,322 last time I checked a few weeks ago.”

Are you sure it wasn’t $724,321.99? LOL

Dude, if you use “about”, how about you just round to the nearest $5,000!
Your house is worth ABOUT $725k – ok?

TCC

#11 Penny Henny on 06.05.19 at 6:10 pm

This is a first!!!
Garth is promoting Kia’s. (see today’s photo)
What’s next? Adele photos?

#12 mitzerboyakaQueencitykidd on 06.05.19 at 6:15 pm

Cuz I’m a Broken Man on a Halifax Pier the last of Barrett’s privateers….
the late great Stan Rogers

luv iz luv
hate is hate

#13 Penny Henny on 06.05.19 at 6:18 pm

#2 Kurt Fitzsimmons on 06.05.19 at 5:10 pm
Our house is paid off since 2000.
We made sure we paid off the $200,000 equity loan in 8 years, 2007 and we paid about $87,664 in total interest. It worth it. The primary house we still live in is now worth about $724,322 last time I checked a few weeks ago.
///////////////

Your house is still worth $724,322? WOW! That is precise. You are definitely a numbers guy Kurt. Kudos.

Question obviously you fit Simmons but does Simmons fit Kurt?

#14 Lost...but not leased on 06.05.19 at 6:19 pm

Vividly recall the 1980’s….the BOOM….the CRASH..the 20+% interest rates.

Is it similar now?

Absolutely not.

IMHO..It will get WORSE

#15 Brian Ripley on 06.05.19 at 6:26 pm

“There’ll be plenty enough time later for entrapment.” Garth

For those of you studying entrapment, my housing charts (May data) for Vancouver, Toronto and Calgary are up http://www.chpc.biz/

Toronto scored a new Condo price high.
Calgary SF detached houses are the big sales winner.
Vancouver total res-sales are down 49% from the MAR 2016 high.

#16 eightlock90 on 06.05.19 at 6:29 pm

Real estate in Toronto is going to rocket up for 20 years then stay flat going into the future? Point to one real estate market on the planet where that has happened. The fabled soft landing.

It’s funny seeing people over the past couple years predict a crash in real estate but when it finally happens they back off their predictions.

Just call time of death on RE in this country. Incomes don’t support million dollar mortgages, foreign speculators are gone, people cannot borrow any more money to bet on rising home prices. Now it grinds down 3-4% every year for decades.

#17 Out Of Work CEO, Will Travel on 06.05.19 at 6:34 pm

In the burbs of Oakville, ambitious folks are tearing down basic 50’s style bungalows and putting up large two storey homes on streets where every home is a replica of the 1100 sq. ft.50’s bungalow….but sticking out or not fitting in does not hound or consume such pioneers.

#18 West is Left on 06.05.19 at 6:39 pm

House prices in BC are 10-months away from a panic selling mode ass-whooping.

Kelowna detached peaked July 31, 2018 at 782,398.

Average detached price is now 689,489 for the month of May, 2019.

They key isn’t what happened – it is what’s happening. And when you list a detach property in May (for what would have been an okay price by 2017 standards) and cut the price on it 2 weeks later in the month of May (your best month) you know the winter is going to be a cold one.

My clients are on the brink of debt implosion meltdown.

And most bought when detached homes cost 550,000. Kids are expensive. They were lied to about the Canadian dream and didn’t bother with the math.

The math shows negative cash flow on all properties at current prices when looking at it from an investment standpoint.

Job loss is a real motivator. We aren’t there yet – hence the 10-month call. We will be soon.

Canadian banks have entered a credit cycle on scale not seen in 30-years. The commercial loans now, residential loan loss appearing later in the year will finish off the economy. Cut rates to negative 10%, nobody will be buying without income from a job.

Then you have the disappearance of boomers in 15-years and their wealth migration (keep that in mind for future demand in retirement communities).

#19 Bob Dog on 06.05.19 at 6:40 pm

The Organization of American States has taken notice of the evil and corruption within our government. Looks good on them. The manner in which our Government has treated certain groups of people over the last 100 years is disgusting. I was never subjected to genocide but I feel totally betrayed. Seems the government of Canada has been controlled by capitalist greed and conservative thinking all along.

#20 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.05.19 at 6:42 pm

@#12 Queencitykidd

The last of Barrett’s Privateers…
God Damn them all.

#21 Re:6th Sense on 06.05.19 at 6:45 pm

What will become of renters?

Renters of today will be like the boomers of today without a house.

So, basically, broke without a house to cash out on.

So, basically broke and homeless. It is that simple. Go long cardboard boxes.

#22 jess on 06.05.19 at 6:49 pm

Revealed: one in five peers advise private business while serving in parliament

Analysis finds 169 peers working as advisers and 15 paid by foreign governments

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/31/revealed-one-in-five-peers-advise-private-business-while-serving-in-parliament

=====
https://www.oecd.org/tax/beps/programme-of-work-to-develop-a-consensus-solution-to-the-tax-challenges-arising-from-the-digitalisation-of-the-economy.pdf

#23 Hamsterwheelie on 06.05.19 at 6:50 pm

I totally support Garths concept of not workin your pants off to support a house.
Our houses pay us & thats the magic of buying 4 homes downtown, when they were all under $200,000.
For us, this real estate stuff has been the only way we could ever have jumped ahead on the game of snakes & ladders (we don’t earn much) and with 5 rental units & great tenants, future looks good, modest but good.
Now I think these concepts about not stressing to pay off your mortgage quicker or even taking out equity to invest are interesting – I’m thinkin I’m far too chicken for that action but it is interesting to consider. Also interesting for some to consider might be buying a house and duplexing it to hedge against inflation, or save some money for things that are more fun than houses

#24 NoName on 06.05.19 at 6:51 pm

Ill need one of those stickers…

#25 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.05.19 at 6:53 pm

Hmmm.
Now that China’s northern border with Russia is secure….

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-china-xi-putin-zoo/chinas-panda-diplomacy-puts-a-smile-on-best-friend-putins-face-idUSKCN1T62HW

Will they turn their undivided attention to Taiwan in the South China Sea?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-taiwan-exclusive/exclusive-u-s-preparing-to-sell-over-2-billion-in-weapons-to-taiwan-testing-china-sources-idUSKCN1T62CA

#26 Deplorable Dude on 06.05.19 at 6:55 pm

Speaking of Youtube…..massive purge today of conservative channels.

It’s only the left that de-platforms the right…not the other way around…..Twitter and Facebook looking at you as well.

Silence voices you don’t agree with. Flat out open censorship…

Welcome to the Ministry of Truth.

I heard it was a purge of haters. Surely that is not ‘conservatives’. – Garth

#27 Headhunter on 06.05.19 at 7:00 pm

#12 mitzerboyakaQueencitykidd on 06.05.19 at 6:15 pm

Cuz I’m a Broken Man on a Halifax Pier the last of Barrett’s privateers….
the late great Stan Rogers

luv iz luv
hate is hate

_______________________________

God Damn them all I was told we’d cruise the seas for American gold we’d fire no guns and shed no tears

yep lost a good soul there..

#28 Long-Time Lurker on 06.05.19 at 7:08 pm

I’m not absolutely certain about it but D-Day might have been the biggest military operation in human history. There was something like 1,900 ships involved in it. (Fuzzy memory: I admit to fact-checkers.)

So many resources were blown up in WW2: ships, buildings, planes, bombs, etc.

If humanity had worked together instead of fighting each other we’d probably have had a sizeable Moon base back in the 1980s.

#29 Howard on 06.05.19 at 7:14 pm

This was practically an RE-pumping blog post.

Oh, 416 will never go down? That’s it? 10 years of warning against buying there and now it’s “well so much for that, get used to it”.

Oh, we should be concerned that Vancouver homeowners’ equity has declined 20-40% after rising 800000% in the past 15 years? What about renters facing obscene rates thereby lessening their ability to save and invest? Any concern for them? No?

Everyone is disparaged equally here. – Garth

#30 will on 06.05.19 at 7:17 pm

#2 Kurt

Hey Kurt, where and how did you buy the gold? Did you take delivery? Curious to know because whenever I ask no one seems to know.

#31 Blacksheep on 06.05.19 at 7:20 pm

“the average price in the spring of 2017 was $1,503,868. Now the same place sells for $1,384,993 (virtually unchanged from last year). That’s an 8% drop.”

“But because houses cost a lot of buy (land transfer tax) and sell (commission), the decline has been more like 16% over the last 24 months, or a loss of $248,125.”
—————————
I keep reading people here bitching that a house is meant to be a home, not a short term investment vehicle.

Why heap on the additional costs of selling, when people just bought (24 months?) and are actually looking for somewhere to raise a family?

Sure some random event, can blindside even the most prudent planners, but I would bet the majority are looking to buy and hold, based on statistical averages.

This is a false narrative that everyone that buys, must be a speculator…Canada, where everyone’s guilty until proven innocent….

Canadians move, on average, each six years. Houses are investments and most people have a one-asset portfolio. Deal with it. – Garth

#32 Blacksheep on 06.05.19 at 7:31 pm

Dave #1,

“Real Estate is crashing in BC…Billion dollars projects now on hold!!!”

https://theprovince.com/business/real-estate/developer-postpones-pre-sales-for-high-rise-towers-in-burnaby-and-coquitlam/wcm/451c0cd4-a4db-48e3-a37d-386579e239f7
—————————-
Wow….losing housing stock, including rental units.
That’s not good for the demand VS supply equation.

All we need is some more stories like this and the NDP will capitulate to industry / consumer pressure.

The path is already determined, only the timing is unknown.

#33 Flop... on 06.05.19 at 7:31 pm

Someone asked for some extra drivel?

I’m pretty sure Midnight Oil had a song about this one.

How can I sleep when my ears are burning…

M44BC

#34 Sarah Hiller on 06.05.19 at 7:35 pm

I think 2020 when Trump gets in means higher inflation and higher interest rates. I am hearing a 4% 30 year treasury bond because of strong payrolls monthly 300,000+ for 24 to 36 more months starting in 2020.

Stock markets will rocket higher too with Dow Jones passing 31,000 and S&P 500 passing 3,200, Nasdaq over 9,000.

As for Toronto real estate there was some CIBC report a few years back in 2007 that in 20 years it would double. This is 3.53% compounded annually. Yes, I would not be surprised at 3% to 4% annual gains as eightlock90 posted.

#35 Robbie on 06.05.19 at 7:39 pm

eightlock90 – soft landing
I bought a home in 1990 in Surrey, B.C. for $288,000 that the Sellers had purchased new in 1980 for $283,000. For several years afterwards the value of the house did not change. I consider those approximately 13 years of almost no increase in value would qualify as a “soft landing”. That was the way the lower mainland/Greater Vancouver market was for those years.

#36 Ace Rimmer on 06.05.19 at 7:41 pm

I’m renting in the outskirts of the GTA and my landlord is from China. She bought this house for $629,000 in 2016 and tried listing this year for $700,000… after a few price adjustments it sold May 2019 for $570,000. She had to put a new furnace in, new deck, pool lining all while we’ve lived here. Our neighbour here posted his house in 2018 for $750,000, it sold this may as well for $505,000. I’ve seen a few other similar sales going on in our area. So of course sales are up, look at the deals people think they’re getting after 2 years of complete insanity. In my mom’s neighbourhood (east gwillimbury) the house across the street and beside her sold for $850,000 in 2017. Now similar houses down the street are asking in the high 600,000s and they’re getting lowballed but accepting these offers because not many viewings.

#37 Freedom First on 06.05.19 at 7:47 pm

#9 Steven R.

Hope you learn something from Garth’s blog before it is too late. Not saying you are a total ignoramus, but you are.

And not to toot my own horn. But consider this freebie the most helpful message you may ever get.

Freedom First

#38 Deplorable Dude on 06.05.19 at 7:52 pm

“I heard it was a purge of haters. Surely that is not ‘conservatives’. – Garth”

No such thing as hate speech…just another label you pin on opinions you oppose.

Sounds like you support it….

Sounds like you’re a hater. – Garth

#39 BD on 06.05.19 at 8:01 pm

#29 If you can’t beat them, join them;)

#40 joblo on 06.05.19 at 8:03 pm

“There’ll be plenty enough time later for entrapment. Trust me.”

Trust who? 12 years to the end of the world!

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2019/01/22/ocasio-cortez-climate-change-alarm/2642481002/

#41 Entrepreneur on 06.05.19 at 8:06 pm

Anxiety or what on the Trump/Mexico but we won’t know until it happens.

Nationalism but “as for Canada, not so much, a big nation and a small population.” Really! And “we need trade to sustain our standard of living.” Another really! I am hearing a lot of complaints.

But as a nation we, especially leaders, should not forget the people with borders, bottom up to make a nation work. But not only that but for our environment.

Yes, Nonplused, BC is just as bad as Alberta as other provinces and nations for energy resource. But we have to be careful, a balance. And why do you think BC and the east coast voted for the Green Party?

We, as a whole, do not even know how the universe is all about and only ventured as far as the moon, Mars, not far. Do we really know all the answers and questions? We can’t get beyond climate change, a lot of questions.

Any word on the scientist meet in Victoria? I haven’t noticed anything online.

#42 ImGonnaBeSick on 06.05.19 at 8:06 pm

Mr. T, in your professional opinion as a member of parliament, how much trouble has Trudeau brought upon himself with admitting Canada was complicit in genocide?

#43 Howard on 06.05.19 at 8:16 pm

I heard it was a purge of haters. Surely that is not ‘conservatives’. – Garth

————————————————

Haters…

Remember when the highschool kid in the MAGA hat stood in place and smiled at an First Nations fellow in Washington DC, prompting leftwing neofascists to call for violence against him (a 15 y/o kid!) and his family? Kathy Griffin was one such example.

To my knowledge not a single one has been deplatformed by Twitter.

Time you tucked in, son. – Garth

#44 Ummmmm on 06.05.19 at 8:21 pm

Sorry Garth but that’s not what you said for the past decade. You said there will be a 15 to 20% correction and then a multi-year melt. And this included Toronto with perhaps exceptions in some tony neighborhoods where all the millionaires live. Neither has materialized as detached house prices in the 416 are only down 8% (and even that’s debatable) and seem to be going up again with condos and townhouses having gone parabolic with little to no pull back. I mean this prediction goes back to 2010 when prices were over 60% lower. Personally I could care less what happens to the value of my home as I need a place to eat, sleep, give my dog a happy home and play my guitars ;-).

It’s really okay to admit the blog’s call on real estate was incorrect or hasn’t happened yet. No one has a crystal ball and the resiliency has shocked many real estate bulls and bears. Not all of us have onset dementia and have followed the blog very closely LOL.

We will still love you :-)

When the facts change, so do predictions. – Garth

#45 Howard on 06.05.19 at 8:22 pm

#35 Robbie on 06.05.19 at 7:39 pm
eightlock90 – soft landing
I bought a home in 1990 in Surrey, B.C. for $288,000 that the Sellers had purchased new in 1980 for $283,000. For several years afterwards the value of the house did not change. I consider those approximately 13 years of almost no increase in value would qualify as a “soft landing”. That was the way the lower mainland/Greater Vancouver market was for those years.

——————————————————

The 1980 price wasn’t anywhere near bubble territory though. There wasn’t a soft landing in your example, in fact there wasn’t any landing at all since there was no bubble to land from.

#46 acdel on 06.05.19 at 8:24 pm

The thing is Garth; there should never be a real-estate crash in this country (an adjustment ok); if we only realized on how rich we are. The world wants what we have.

We allow leaders which in reality are no different from you or I to dictate to us their ideologies; in the past it worked (railway) but now we just do not attract the one’s that do. You had some great ideas while you were in parliament; only for those with half a brain to ridicule you. They won (politics) but you did not back down a created this for your personal life.

I just do not understand where we go from here, the good one’s are ridiculed, lambasted, and driven into a corner, and we put up with this benign crap.

Until we realize what we have and can attract the best of the best in politics then we should probably become nomads using the current technology, etc; I am joking but the point is there. We are the second largest country in the world with incredible bright minds.

Good evening all!

#47 steerage steward on 06.05.19 at 8:32 pm

Support Garth trying to clean out this bilge. I don’t share Garth’s views on many topics, but that doesn’t mean I can’t be civil, and learn something while always getting a few laughs.

I visit many online forums, and enjoy the freedom and rationality available here. You want to blame some racial group for problems, or find the truth about 911? There are deep rabbit hole forums available!

And remember; if at anytime you are not fully satisfied with how Garth runs the site you can always ask for your $5 back.

#48 not 1st on 06.05.19 at 8:33 pm

I don’t want to talk about Toronto. I want to talk about the utter incompetence our PM has engaged in.

First giving away $14B of our tax dollars for abortions on other countries.

Secondly openly playing with the word genocide as to now invite an inquiry from foreign body to probe our country. He has opened up the govt to endless litigation all on the tax payer dime.

Canada is a husk of what it was with this man as leader. It will take a generation to recover.

#49 not 1st on 06.05.19 at 8:38 pm

Here is your PM at it again. If you are not embarrassed by this your head is not on right.

https://www.thepostmillennial.com/it-increases-my-feminism-justin-trudeau-says-about-ejecting-wilson-raybould-and-philpott-from-the-liberal-cabinet/

“It increases my feminism”: Justin Trudeau says about ejecting Wilson-Raybould and Philpott from the Liberal cabinet

#50 Terry Santini on 06.05.19 at 8:44 pm

Hey Will, I never bought gold or other precious metals but I went with my uncle back in 2002 to his local Scotia Bank branch here in Guelph.

He bought 50 coins, 1 troy ounce each of Canadian Maples at 525 Canadian dollars. I wonder if they still sell them today. Looking at gold prices today, $1,330 U.S. per troy ounce is 1,790 Canadian dollars. A pretty good run up by 3.4 times value.

#51 Lost...but not leased on 06.05.19 at 9:01 pm

#26 Deplorable Dude on 06.05.19 at 6:55 pm
Speaking of Youtube…..massive purge today of conservative channels.

It’s only the left that de-platforms the right…not the other way around…..Twitter and Facebook looking at you as well.

Silence voices you don’t agree with. Flat out open censorship…

Welcome to the Ministry of Truth.

I heard it was a purge of haters. Surely that is not ‘conservatives’. – Garth

=====================

Yeah…just came across this today…..YouTube is engaged in major purging.

BTW…if anyone thinks that YT is not part of the Deep State…well I have a *&^% to sell you

#52 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.05.19 at 9:26 pm

@#49 not 1st
““It increases my feminism”: Justin Trudeau says about ejecting Wilson-Raybould and Philpott from the Liberal cabinet.”
+++++

Trudeau’s “Spin Dr’s” working overtime.
Politically Correct nothing speak reaches a whole new level of irrelevance.
Brilliant.
Give that PM a cookie.

#53 45north on 06.05.19 at 9:29 pm

Dave: Real Estate is crashing in BC…Billion dollars projects now on hold

from your link: The projects need to be about 50 per cent pre-sold in order to get bank financing, said McAllister, citing a threshold that is already slightly lower than the more commonly cited 75 to 80 per cent level.

that confirms David Flemings article : For the longest time, I thought it was 70%, but during my meeting last week, one of the largest lenders in Toronto (with a big-5 bank that shall remain nameless) informed me that they now only loan when 80% of units are sold.

https://torontorealtyblog.com/blog/condominium-financing/

in BC, the developer has only nine months to do pre-sales whereas in Ontario, I gather he can take as long as he likes

#54 45north on 06.05.19 at 9:30 pm

West is Left: House prices in BC are 10-months away from a panic selling mode ass-whooping..

I was in Vancouver, two weeks ago. Very average detached house in Kitsilano was $2.5 million. Nobody’s got $2.5 million.

Ross Kay says that BC has lost $265 billion in equity. The Left in the West – its days are numbered.

#55 45north on 06.05.19 at 9:33 pm

Ace Rimmer: Our neighbour here posted his house in 2018 for $750,000, it sold this May as well for $505,000. I’ve seen a few other similar sales going on in our area. So of course sales are up, look at the deals people think they’re getting after 2 years of complete insanity.

I’m thinking, the three sellers sold because they see further drops in price and because they could sell.

I’m also thinking that the decline in house prices makes changes to the stress test irrelevant.

#56 Neo on 06.05.19 at 9:38 pm

Long term lurker who feels the need to chime in.

According to my father who was intimately involved, the true meaning of the D is “Deliverance”

#57 tccontrarian on 06.05.19 at 9:47 pm

#38 Deplorable Dude on 06.05.19 at 7:52 pm

“I heard it was a purge of haters. Surely that is not ‘conservatives’. – Garth”

No such thing as hate speech…just another label you pin on opinions you oppose.

Sounds like you support it….
///

Sounds like you’re a hater. – Garth

—–

Don’t worry DD. I’m even more Deplorable – I’m a lowly gold-licker! haha

Most people are ‘nice’ as long as you’re agreeable – if not, they call you names.

Could be worse — hey, I got banned a while back for not buying into the official narrative on a specific event on a specific 9th month of an odd year.
I’m not sure why I’m ‘allowed’ to post now – probably my impecable record in calling the ‘top’ last year (I was suggesting a short position as a hedge against a correction…which came as expected, and ended up wiping off all the gains of 2018)

Anyway, 2018 was a ‘baby-bear’; next comes ‘Mama-bear’ and then…then comes Papa-bear. But we’ve got time still to prepare. I will make my suggestions in due time- with the usual caveats, of course.

TCC

#58 That's All, She Wrote on 06.05.19 at 9:59 pm

“… first-timers make up about half the entire market …”

“Canadians move, on average, each six years.”

Hmm…

#59 Dominoes Lining Up on 06.05.19 at 10:06 pm

“And that made the agents happy. They need all the joy they can get, since the majority of them have been slowly but steadily starving.”

Something is afoot with agents, methinks. Too few sales and many are getting desperate, now competing with ‘Purple Bricks’ and the like.

Just got an odd but real spam email from an actual Toronto realtor begging for business, and it said they……

“…..are offering our FULL SERVICE PACKAGE at a discounted rate of 1.25%!”

That’s quite a sacrifice. Must be desperate, is all I can think.

Once volume has faded like this, prices can start to crumble. I’ll have to respectfully disagree with our host. I think nothing makes Toronto immune from a crash, I watched it happen in the 1990s, everywhere in the city. And the fundamentals, especially debt, are much worse now.

#60 akashic record on 06.05.19 at 10:16 pm

I heard it was a purge of haters. Surely that is not ‘conservatives’. – Garth

Haters is a funny criteria.

“Do not be swayed by the realtor-media ‘the market’s hot’ campaign. Goebbels would be pleased with it.”

Imagine when the realtor-media demands to excommunicate this blog to fight hatred.

#61 Pete on 06.05.19 at 10:54 pm

I think RE will peak again into early 2020, and sputter the rest of the year. This RE economy cannot be sustained into 2021. We have no economic backbone or ability to mitigate rising debt loads any further.

#62 Leo Trollstoy on 06.05.19 at 11:09 pm

#50 Terry Santini on 06.05.19 at 8:44 pm

Poor uncle shoulda bought 5000 troy ounces

Sad

#63 Dolce Vita on 06.05.19 at 11:19 pm

I think you have it Garth.

The formerly sidelined bought in 416 land due to low rates and Trudeau giving away tax payer money and letting them raid their RRSP. Since Trudeau will not be around after October, may as well take the giveaways now in case they are taken away.

May 2019 was 416 Land’s Swan Song if that is all that RE market could eek out with lower prices and dirt cheap mortgage rates. Thus, it will be downhill from now on in akin to a Snowball Rolling Down Everest.

——————————–

Now, according to Trudeau, Canada is a country of genocide.

The only genocide committed here is that on Canadian common sense, decency and all that is good about the Country. Trudeau has transcended Dilettante to Nutter.

As a Liberal not a big fan of people like Ezra Levant but he proves our Nutter PM wrong without being derisive (5:10 in duration):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TC1LfZUMSwk

——————————–

Is it me or does Catherine McKenna look like a sun bleached version of Joni Mitchell (still in awe of Joni’s timeless music and beautiful voice)?

Sorry Joni, no offense intended.

As for you Catherine, you should be so lucky.

#64 Raptors Rock!!!!! on 06.05.19 at 11:34 pm

The Toronto Raptors take game 3 of the NBA finals and are only two wins away from the NBA championship!!!!

The Raptors and Toronto rock!!!!!!!!!!!

Go Raptors!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

#65 Sail Away on 06.05.19 at 11:48 pm

#37 Freedom First on 06.05.19 at 7:47 pm
#9 Steven R.

Hope you learn something from Garth’s blog before it is too late. Not saying you are a total ignoramus, but you are.

And not to toot my own horn. But consider this freebie the most helpful message you may ever get.

Freedom First

—————————————-

Freedom, I fail to see how being a condescending jerk is helpful. Are you just trolling?

#66 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.06.19 at 12:08 am

DELETED

#67 DON on 06.06.19 at 12:11 am

#3 Stone on 06.05.19 at 5:31 pm

And while the Trumpster’s antics have crashed bond yields and helped make home loans cheaper, you might be shocked at how that will change in 2020.

———

Not sure I understand how that will change in 2020.

**************

Circumstances can change by or in 2020. From what I have seen all ‘experts’ are in agreement that a recession is near. No one knows for sure if it will commence in 2019, 2020, or 2021. But most expect a recession. Why are governments around the World lowering interests rates…slow to null growth? Only this time household debt saturation is an issue. Enter a recession and slow down/job loss (Ford/GM layoffs etc) and consumer spending tanks.

Trumps will do everything possible to ward off recession till after the next election. His escalating trade war is not helping the economy. Trump is thinking about his ego and China can afford to play the long game, their leadership receives minimal criticism and have an authoritarian hammer. Trump is in it for Trump!

Plus… a house is on payments for at 20+ years. Do you buy at peak debt or just be happy and wait a year or two longer. As you price out potential buyers their sentiment changes. Recency bias can bite you in the ass.

#68 DON on 06.06.19 at 12:23 am

#54 45north on 06.05.19 at 9:30 pm

West is Left: House prices in BC are 10-months away from a panic selling mode ass-whooping..

I was in Vancouver, two weeks ago. Very average detached house in Kitsilano was $2.5 million. Nobody’s got $2.5 million.

Ross Kay says that BC has lost $265 billion in equity. The Left in the West – its days are numbered.
)))))))))))))))))))))))))))

Exactly, how many sane blog dogs would anti up 2.5 million for an average house in Kitsilano in the near future.

Trendy area – I used to live there, traffic everywhere though.

But to spend 2.5 Million on a postage stamp for an average house (remember no pool or real backyard) Most likely have to park the second car on the road.

#69 Paul on 06.06.19 at 1:14 am

#49 not 1st on 06.05.19 at 8:38 pm

I wasn’t aware of the Post Millennial. They offer a real spectrum of perspectives on current events. Do they limit all articles to 50 words or less? I hope you don’t get all your news from sites like these.

For the record, I’m not a Trudeau fan. His acceptance of the Murdered and Missing Indigenous Women’s Inquiry’s characterization of this tragedy as an ongoing genocide is a new low point in this government. It will set back any true reconciliation for years.

#70 Forebiz on 06.06.19 at 1:25 am

Edmonton seems to have a new website that shows the last sale price of houses now. Sold my rental in 2016 for $373k and see it was sold again in 2018 (both in August) for $350k.

Garth you convinced me to bail. I owe you for this and the investment advice. Figuratively.

#71 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.06.19 at 1:28 am

@#26 Deplorable Dude
“Silence voices you don’t agree with. Flat out open censorship…”

*****
Actually youtube, facebook, twitter, etc
are self censoring to stay one step ahead of the authorities.
Govt’s and the public that have had enough.

Lawsuits for Libel, slander, etc keep the MSM in check.
Now it’s the internet’s turn.

I think the New Zealand Mosque “live stream” slaughter was the wake up call to start clamping down on the putrified, rotting underbelly of an unregulated cesspool of conspiracies, vitriol and bullying.

But …..why waste my time .
I lost you at “Actually…..”

#72 Smoking Man on 06.06.19 at 1:42 am

Life is for living.

I went from 20 to 60 in the blink of an eye.

Nothing left on my bucket list. I’ve done it all. High IQ with zero spelling skills. I made it.

Even wrote a book , hardest thing I’ve ever done.

What’s next.

I want to learn to play guitar.

#73 Stink Finger on 06.06.19 at 3:31 am

How do you compare Sarah Sanders bored spanking of drooling Trump Hate reporters to Climate Barbie acknowledging that the Liberals proven tactic is to scream until the perception of “liar turned climate fanatic” is swallowed whole by gullible Canadians ? Obviously she shouldn’t hold pressers after slugging back Newfie Screech. I heard Goebbels speeches on Netflix, he was never “screeched like Barbie” when he spoke in public, quite the opposite. No one was laughing at him.

If there is a correlation of real estate insanity and rates on, a asylum of news is about to break out when the US Fed lowers rates very soon and Poloz is forced to follow. If he doesn’t the CDN $ will skyrocket and bury businesses in red ink. There will be an immediate recession if the Loon goes anywhere close to par.

On the plus side the Fed move either way will shiv Trudeau in time for the election. Maybe that’s Trumps plan? We can only hope and change.

#74 maxx on 06.06.19 at 6:24 am

“Over time people learn to cope with their disabilities.”

Which is precisely why rate increases should continue, albeit at a slower pace. Debt has got to melt.

Money is only cheap for those who already have it.

#75 A poor sucker on 06.06.19 at 7:19 am

I am late 40s, married and wife wants to upgrade the house. Nothing wrong with it. I wish I never bought 18 years ago, even with the values going up in Toronto like they are. I certainly feel trapped.

#76 Tater on 06.06.19 at 8:00 am

#26 Deplorable Dude on 06.05.19 at 6:55 pm
Speaking of Youtube…..massive purge today of conservative channels.

It’s only the left that de-platforms the right…not the other way around…..Twitter and Facebook looking at you as well.

Silence voices you don’t agree with. Flat out open censorship…

Welcome to the Ministry of Truth.

—————————————————————

Are we certain you guys aren’t using deplorable instead of dumb?

YouTube, Facebook, Twitter et al are PRIVATE companies who developed and own these platforms. They have every right to decide who uses them. If you find your dribble isn’t finding an audience on a platform, maybe re-think your message, or build your own platform.

But these people won’t. They need the mainstream users to engage with them to provide signal boost, even if its negative, because there just aren’t enough people who agree with them.

#77 dharma bum on 06.06.19 at 8:16 am

#75 A poor sucker

I am late 40s, married and wife wants to upgrade the house. Nothing wrong with it.
——————————————————————–

Haha!

Welcome to the club.

In terms of regrets, you need to dial it back a bit further, as in: “I wish I never got married”.

You see, my young blogdog colleague, marriage leads to home ownership.

Homeownership leads to home upgrading.

It all leads to debt, and a lifetime of indentured servitude.

It ain’t over yet. By the time you are in your early 60’s, you’ll be rolling over that debt to upgrade again.

It never ends.

Have fun.

#78 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.06.19 at 8:17 am

Realtors are pulling out all the stops to promote their mansions….
First it was “Asian buyers” in helicopters .
Now its “Lavish Party’s” where the “rent-a-guests” are delivered to a “Playboy Mansion” by helicopters.

https://theprovince.com/news/local-news/lavish-anmore-party-with-helicopters-beyond-unacceptable-says-mayor/wcm/d5bd0ae5-2d99-46c2-95a1-e96f71c44867

The only thing missing was a rented Arnold Schwarzenegger yelling, “Get to de choppa!”

#79 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.06.19 at 8:23 am

@#75 A poor sucker
“….married and wife wants to upgrade the house……I certainly feel trapped….”
+++++

Showed the wife your comment yet?

I cant decide who’s going through a mid life crisis.
You or the wife.
Tell you what.
Sell the house, get a divorce, buy a snazzy sports car, call Freedom First…..
You wont feel trapped….at least until the first child support statement comes due.

#80 IHCTD9 on 06.06.19 at 8:43 am

#69 Paul on 06.06.19 at 1:14 am

It will set back any true reconciliation for years.
___

There never would have been any.

#81 TriFecta on 06.06.19 at 8:58 am

Party Rages On In The Tri-City
https://www.therecord.com/news-story/9409799-house-prices-in-kitchener-and-waterloo-continued-to-rise-in-may/

#82 IHCTD9 on 06.06.19 at 10:06 am

#75 A poor sucker on 06.06.19 at 7:19 am

I am late 40s, married and wife wants to upgrade the house.
___

Tell the wife you have a great idea, you and her will be doing the renovations yourselves. Start with the roof. Hand her the first bundle of shingles and point to the ladder.

Things will be back to normal in no time.

#83 PoorEngineer on 06.06.19 at 10:30 am

In the KWC area the small detach market has been crazy the last 3-4 weeks.

It looks like all detached that were 500-550 just last month are now asking 575-600K. And open houses are quite busy. A house that was sold conditionally with finance for 550k just got relisted for 600K, and it will probably net that.

It’s hard to find anything new(er) and in great condition for under 600K. If you do, then it’s not a great location (i.e. an extra 10-15 min commute).

However, the bigger homes (2500sq +) are not really selling and the price is down substantially from 2017….

#84 freedom = rent ? on 06.06.19 at 10:38 am

until the landlord boots you, lol.

hardly.

proud homeowner. Can do anything to the house, back-yard, etc…. a bit more ‘freedom’

#85 James on 06.06.19 at 10:49 am

#72 Smoking Man on 06.06.19 at 1:42 am

Life is for living.
I went from 20 to 60 in the blink of an eye.
Nothing left on my bucket list. I’ve done it all. High IQ with zero spelling skills. I made it.
Even wrote a book , hardest thing I’ve ever done.
What’s next.
I want to learn to play guitar
_______________________________________
Holy $hit Old Man I thought you were in your late sixties or early seventies. Jesus you look old!
You sound like Donald Trump “Sorry losers and haters, but my IQ is one of the highest – and you all know it! Please don’t feel so stupid or insecure, it’s not your fault,”
Are you going to tell us your a stable genius as well?
Better learn to play quickly.

#86 JB on 06.06.19 at 10:53 am

While sales in the GTA have improved from the pit of 2018, they remain below the 10-year average. There are tens of thousands of new condo units in the pipeline which will be hitting the market in the next three years.
……………………………………………………………………..
My very young and not so bright brother in law wants to purchase a condo now in the city and I keep telling him just wait for anther two years. They will drop like flies in price. If you buy now your going to regret it. I think he is starting to get the news.

#87 Leo Trollstoy on 06.06.19 at 11:57 am

#86 JB on 06.06.19 at 10:53 am
I keep telling him just wait for anther two years

“Wait another two years” is repeated so often that it should a meme

Everybody who said this in the last 2 decades has looked like an idiot

#88 Shawn on 06.06.19 at 12:02 pm

FED will cut 25 bps in July. High probability they cut again before 2020.

#89 Leo Trollstoy on 06.06.19 at 12:05 pm

#67 DON on 06.06.19 at 12:11 am
From what I have seen all ‘experts’ are in agreement that a recession is near.

Ignore them. They’re idiots. Only idiots listen to idiots

https://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/donald-trump-wall-street-effect-markets-230164

https://money.cnn.com/2016/10/10/news/economy/trump-us-stocks-fall/index.html

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/projects/cp/opinion/election-night-2016/paul-krugman-the-economic-fallout

#90 Dogman01 on 06.06.19 at 12:07 pm

#28 Long-Time Lurker on 06.05.19 at 7:08 pm

“So many resources were blown up in WW2: ships, buildings, planes, bombs, etc.

If humanity had worked together instead of fighting each other we’d probably have had a sizeable Moon base back in the 1980s.”

——————————————————–

A great deal of the “West’s” Capital and potential was destroyed in the two World Wars, brought the British Empire down and you can see what UK is today.

– the various China “Danger!!” posters here have got it right. Trade War is small potatoes to what a great power conflict could be. Likelihood perhaps low, Impact massive.

Our current productive capacity is massive, lots of Tech and lots of Labour, likely lots of Capital as it seems printing money has no impact (MMT works?). I think something is obsolete in our Economic systems\thinking and is holding this potential back. Scarcity seems to be “beaten but artificially kept in place. “Star Trek” Economy (no scarcity and lots of scope for personal options) is likely possible considering human currently capabilities and capacity.

Interesting book: “Utopia for Realists”, acknowledges that scarcity is beat (or near beat) but we have no vision of progress beyond Neo-Liberal Capitalism. He has some ideas on steps for progress. I am glad young people realize we can do better and that what got us here (to this good place) may not be the same vehicle to get us to a better place.

https://www.theguardian.com/books/2016/apr/15/neoliberalism-ideology-problem-george-monbiot

Now Until then us Gen X’ers need to continue on the Coat Tails of all the goodness the Boomers had, and hope the Millennials see how shitty the deal they got and decide to change things.

#91 Sail away on 06.06.19 at 12:08 pm

Trudeau accepting the genocide finding will have major impacts. A genocide is a mass, coordinated extermination that requires agreement and collusion- to accept as a government that a genocide took place implicitly accepts the charge.

Now what? Obviously, there will be victims and obviously there will be perpetrators… and of course, as always, the perpetrators will have to pay. Any guesses as to who’s the perpetrator? Who has the deepest pockets? The only question is the number of victims.
Let’s expect many.

Having accepted responsibility, the government is starting from a position of guilty. A huge portion of federal funds (yes, your tax dollars) will be used to compensate the victims and the victims extended families.

#92 Eaglebay on 06.06.19 at 1:10 pm

#84 freedom = rent ? on 06.06.19 at 10:38 am

“proud homeowner. Can do anything to the house, back-yard, etc…. a bit more ‘freedom’”

You better read your mortgage agreement.

#93 Deplorable Dude on 06.06.19 at 1:11 pm

I see there’s a lot of modern day ‘book burners’ on here…..

#94 jess on 06.06.19 at 1:45 pm

Trump would call this a coup! when it is about cleaning up corruption.

..”When Vizcarra reintroduced his ideas for combating corruption last week, his initiatives came with an ultimatum. Peru’s constitution allows for the President to call for a new congressional election after two failed votes of confidence, the first of which came in 2017 while Vizcarra was Vice President.

In April Vizcarra put forward hundreds of pages of political reforms, many of which target loopholes or workarounds that corrupt politicians utilize. Among the reforms, which are expected to be the focus of congress, are a removal of immunity for lawmakers, campaign finance changes, and a ban from office on those previously convicted of corruption.

“It is urgent to save our democracy from corruption. It is urgent to prevent people who are guilty of criminal offenses from representing us. It is urgent to promote the strengthening of political parties,” Prime Minister Salvador Del Solar said in support of Vizcarra during the confidence debates on Tuesday.

The past four Presidents of Peru have been caught up in the scandals relating to Odebrecht, a Brazilian company which filled the pockets of politicians throughout Latin America, which admitted to giving over US$800 million in bribes in the past decade.

#95 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.06.19 at 2:41 pm

@#93 DD
“I see there’s a lot of modern day ‘book burners’ on here…..”

*****

451 Deg F

#96 Eks dee Siple on 06.06.19 at 2:46 pm

Lost and least: “BTW…if anyone thinks that YT is not part of the Deep State…well I have a *&^% to sell you”

Honestly, Garth, I don’t know why you put up with this conspiracy crap nonsense:)

BTW, all conservatives are haters in some form or another, it’s a faulty ideology to begin with.

#97 Lee on 06.06.19 at 3:17 pm

Rates going to zero according to Zero Hedge. Last guy to say that was Greenspan. I guess we should load up on prefs.

#98 JB on 06.06.19 at 3:26 pm

#87 Leo Trollstoy on 06.06.19 at 11:57 am

#86 JB on 06.06.19 at 10:53 am
I keep telling him just wait for anther two years

“Wait another two years” is repeated so often that it should a meme

Everybody who said this in the last 2 decades has looked like an idiot
…………………………………………………………………
I’m just agreeing with Garth’s words as quoted.
“There are tens of thousands of new condo units in the pipeline which will be hitting the market in the next three years.” Supply and demand!

#99 Ubul on 06.06.19 at 3:47 pm

“Canadians move, on average, each six years.”

What percentage of those Canadians are renters vs home owners?

#100 Guillaume on 06.06.19 at 4:09 pm

#85 James

Hey tough boy 2.0 ! You think you look more clever trying to take on the Smoking Man ? Probably you would call him Mister if you were in front of him and maybe you would ask him the permission to polish his flip flops.

#101 Derek Slavotous on 06.07.19 at 2:28 pm

Do you why there is no recession near by or why we are not in a recession? Interest rates are still too low and too many jobs have been created over the last 2 years.

If we are approaching a recession, it is at least 1 year away and I doubt we will even really know in 18 months to 2 years.