Tokyo Rose

DOUG  By Guest Blogger Doug Rowat

Japan is accustomed to sudden, rapidly escalating disasters: earthquakes, tsunamis, Fukushima, radiation, Godzilla.

Unfortunately, Japan is also equally plagued by slowly escalating disasters, in particular, its aging population problem. Japan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs recently reported that the age 70-and-over segment now makes up a remarkable 20% of the country’s population. And the 65-and-over segment is also now at an equally astounding 28%, which has steadily crept up from 22% just a decade ago. As a point of comparison, less than 9% of the world’s population is currently 65 and older. In short, Japan is a country of Methuselahs.

As a result, inflation has remained persistently low and Japan has fallen into four recessions in the past decade. It’s presently attempting to dodge its fifth. So, clearly, Japanese equities have been terrible investments over the past decade.

Except that they’ve been great investments. Despite all the problems listed above, Japanese equities have been stellar performers. The Nikkei 225 has returned 10.7% annually over the past 10 years on a total-return basis, easily eclipsing the 8.2% annual total return of Canada’s S&P/TSX Composite, for example. Pretty good results for a country that’s averaged only 1% annual GDP growth over this same period.

EAFE (Europe, Australia, Asia, and the Far East) exchange traded funds provide diversified exposure to a wide array of overseas markets. But if you want to own such an ETF (and you should) you have to be comfortable with significant Japan exposure. Most EAFE ETFs have a meaty 20–25% weighting to Japan, so appreciating the drivers of the Japanese equity market is essential.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s long-running and aggressively stimulative economic plan, Abenomics, has contributed to the strong Japanese equity performance in part because Abenomics has weakened the Yen, which has been positive for corporate profitability. Japan is an export-reliant economy, so a weaker Yen equals more earnings growth. Toyota Motor, as an example, sells 75% of its vehicles outside of Japan.

But perhaps the main reason for the impressive equity market performance has been the massive stimulus from the Bank of Japan.  The correlation between the BoJ’s balance sheet and the Nikkei 225 isn’t perfect, but it’s pretty close. 94% to be precise. And, as the Japanese economy remains fragile, the BoJ has been called on to further ramp up its monetary easing. And the BoJ seems willing to oblige. BoJ Executive Director Eiji Maeda addressed the Japanese parliament in April and was blunt: “If the economy’s momentum…is threatened, we are ready to ease monetary policy as necessary.” Unusually strong and clear language from a central bank.

Bank of Japan total assets (white line) vs Nikkei 225 (orange): a 94% correlation over 10 years Bank of Japan total assets (white line) versus Nikkei 225 (orange): a 94% correlation over 10 years

Source: Bloomberg

The long-term consequences of the BoJ’s monetary policy, of course, are unknown, though it’s already hurting the commercial banking sector. However, we remain satisfied that, at least for the near to medium term, the well-established and strongly positive relationship between the BoJ’s asset levels and the Nikkei 225 will continue. The BoJ stimulus, of course, may eventually derail the Japanese equity-market bullet train, but until then, it’s fun to travel at 200 mph.

Japan is also consistently one of the world’s largest net importers of oil and, of course, its dependence on oil was exacerbated after the massive 2011 earthquake and tsunami, which took most of its nuclear energy production offline. The vast majority of its reactors are still shuttered. Therefore having some Japan in your portfolio also provides an effective hedge against the oil sector. Over the past 10 years the Nikkei 225’s correlation to oil has been sharply negative.

Japan: Negatively Correlated to Oil Prices

Source: Bloomberg. Weekly correlations over 10 years. A negative correlation between -1.00 to -0.50 indicates a strong inverse relationship.

But the oil hedge is a side benefit. The main reason to own Japan is the expectation that the BoJ’s monetary easing will continue.

Japan serves as a good reminder that while fundamentals (and demographics) matter, central banks matter more.

Finally, as of this writing, James Holzhauer continues his red-hot winning streak on Jeopardy! He’s now racked up more than US$2.3 million in winnings and has the second longest win streak in Jeopardy! history. He continues to close in on Ken Jennings’s all-time record of US$2.5 million in winnings over 74 consecutive games. For analysis on how Holzhauer’s been doing it, check out my recent blog post.

Doug Rowat, FCSI® is Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments and Senior Vice President, Private Client Group, Raymond James Ltd.

 

58 comments ↓

#1 Earlybird on 06.01.19 at 5:41 pm

Great Post….Japan doesn’t get a lot of mention! Thank you!

#2 Learner on 06.01.19 at 6:15 pm

Hi Doug and the fellow blog followers,

I have a few questions, hope you have an answer. Can Defined Benefit (DB) pension income be considered as part of fixed income portion of the overall portfolio? if yes, then it should be regarded as bond or preferred share portion? and is there any formula to decide what the equivalent amount is based on the projected monthly pension income? when can I take this pension amount into the portfolio diversification/allocation consideration, before actually receiving the pension (now) or only after the pension is received (retirement)?

Thanks alot for your insight.

#3 Linda on 06.01.19 at 6:41 pm

Doug, it is interesting to read about how the BoJ is stimulating their economy but surely this vehicle will be going off a cliff at some point?

About the age factor – if 30% are over 70 & 28% are over 65, no wonder Japan expects to see their population decrease over the next two decades. Morbid as it sounds, is there such a thing as a funeral based ETF? Talk about a sure bet.

#4 acdel on 06.01.19 at 6:56 pm

Interesting article Doug. For me personally I just do not understand the Japanese market. Very little if any “legal immigration”, aging population, what I have read (if correct) population is on a downward basis due to age.

It is a large economy; but for how long?

#5 Doug Rowat on 06.01.19 at 7:17 pm

#2 Linda on 06.01.19 at 6:41 pm

Doug, it is interesting to read about how the BoJ is stimulating their economy but surely this vehicle will be going off a cliff at some point?

About the age factor – if 30% are over 70 & 28% are over 65, no wonder Japan expects to see their population decrease over the next two decades. Morbid as it sounds, is there such a thing as a funeral based ETF? Talk about a sure bet.

We hold a health care ETF in our portfolio to hedge against an ageing global population. It has an emphasis on North America, which isn’t quite as ancient as Japan but pretty close.

–Doug

#6 Long-Time Lurker on 06.01.19 at 7:28 pm

>You need to find out who Tokyo Rose is, Doug. Consider a title change. You can edit this, Garth.

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets/052516/how-bank-japan-now-owns-90-top-10-stocks-boj.asp

How the Bank of Japan Now Owns 90% of the Top 10 Stocks (BOJ)

BY SEAN ROSS Updated May 25, 2016

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is a top 10 shareholder in 90% of stocks listed on the Nikkei 225. This startling statistic came from public research published in an April 2016 Bloomberg article by Yuji Nakamura, Anna Kitanaka and Nao Sano. The three Japanese market analysts also point out that the BOJ owns 55% of Japanese exchange-traded funds (ETFs), or more than every other investor in the world combined.

In fact, the BOJ owns more of Japan’s equity market than BlackRock Inc. (NYSE: BLK) and Vanguard Group. This could be considered a nationalization of the Japanese stock market, except that the BOJ technically earned independence from the Japanese government in 1998.

Modeled after the U.S. Federal Reserve system, the BOJ is a public-private chartered organization with a state protected monopoly over the money supply.

“This is clearly distorting the sanity of the stock market,” said Shingo Ide, chief strategist for the Toyko-based NLI Research Institute. Stock prices are supposed to reflect the underlying value of a company. To be priced correctly, equities should reflect earnings and other fundamental characteristics, not the whims of central bankers. Any unexpected policy moves could send the market haywire….

#7 akashic record on 06.01.19 at 7:43 pm

#2 Linda

Japanese funeral based ETF. The sure as death investment.

Manifesting financial enlightenment early in the evening.

#4 Doug Rowat
“We hold a health care ETF in our portfolio to hedge against an ageing global population. It has an emphasis on North America, which isn’t quite as ancient as Japan but pretty close.”

Old Japanese people used to walk to the hills, to avoid being a burden on their families and society. maybe they still do. They may spoil the dreams of investors, who count on long and expensive road to the funeral home.

#8 Millennial Realist on 06.01.19 at 7:53 pm

Direct investment in funeral and cemetery industries is something I have been doing for a few years already. No complaints, and this should be very profitable for the next decade which will be the final one for most first stage Boomers.

Thank you, Boomers!

#9 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.01.19 at 7:54 pm

Interesting article Doug.

I read in the Economist a few years back that the only 1st world “country” that comes even close to Japan’s rapidly ageing population is…..Quebec.
Due to their large catholic families of the 40’s, 50’s, 60’s and then their cultural repudiation of the church and state causing a huge drop in children.
Canadian govt actuaries must have been “high fiveing” when Quebec opted out of the CPP in the mid 60’s and went their own way with the QPP.
Unlike Japan, Quebec will need to allow more and more immigrants to pay for the retired “pure lain” Boomers.

#10 Debtslavecreator on 06.01.19 at 7:57 pm

The BofJ is far ahead of all other CBs in the junk monetary policy
They are debasing the yen through this garbage policy while the underlying economy remains weak and faltering
Over time the governments will be increasing taxes on all investments capturing the imaginary nominal gains
These central banks are the problem and engaging in massive fraud
They use the money creation (fake money not tied to the underlying productivity of the economy ) to inflate nominal asset prices and the governments’ tax revenue then what’s left for the investor after tax, inflation , and fees has to pay higher prices for products and services
One day, likely within 5-10 years, these monetary policy
scams will collapse with the economy and most will have nothing to show for a lifetime of work after paying real taxes on imaginary gains and in many other countries many are paying real mortgages and associated housing costs based on imaginary inflated nominal housing prices
Enjoy it while it lasts

#11 Flop... on 06.01.19 at 7:59 pm

Hey Robax, how you doin’?

Below is an extract from a post of mine I wrote last Saturday to Ryan Lewenza and I mentioned you.

He didn’t respond to me.

I think it’s because I don’t have any grey hair…

M44BC

“Do you bother to read the comments during the week?

I reckon Robax does, closet masochist maybe?”

#12 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.01.19 at 8:06 pm

@#140 Glengarry Misandrist
“The Deplorables feel left behind, frustrated, their masculinity is threatened, they have anger toward Women and they blame…”

******
Ya might want rethink the idea that ALL Deplorables are men and have a look at a few pictures of a Trump rally full of “Deplore-rabbles”…..the crowd is 50% women cheering him on…

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/03/us/politics/trump-women.html

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2018/08/03/women-voted-for-donald-trump-for-the-same-reasons-men-did-racism-and-sexism/

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/washington-secrets/women-are-trumps-most-loyal-supporters-more-than-men

#13 NoName on 06.01.19 at 8:06 pm

#140 Glengarry Girl on 06.01.19 at 3:32 pm
#126 No Name

Appreciate your analysis, I read a lot too. I’m a big believer that Inequality is a major contributor to our current state. The Deplorables feel left behind, frustrated, their masculinity is threatened, they have anger toward Women and they blame Immigrants. Its best to avoid them all together, not worth trying to have an intelligent conversation or being logical. They will be left behind as we evolve.

First, thank you, but I think you got that wrong, deplorables of today, were hipsters of yesterday. Deplorable is end of the evolution, not other way around.

#14 mike from mtl on 06.01.19 at 8:14 pm

..Japan serves as a good reminder that while fundamentals (and demographics) matter, central banks matter more…
///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Damn straight, their two decade deflation and tightly controlled inflation is in no small part held together by BoJ.

I used to work at a Japanese corp (in Canada) and been there so I have some first-hand experience.

Japan is weird, their (major) corps are basically massive conglomerates that have huge collusion. Which domestically is seen as a positive thing; big successful Japan corps protecting Japanese interests. They’re very protectionist especially on foods and vehicles.

The BoJ not only controls lending rate and minting but also actively intervenes to the entire yield long and short, buys equites outright, bails out zombie corps, manipulates forex and more.

Official citizenship is basically non-existent, permeant working visa is about the top possible. Which in theory is a negative but seen domestically as very appealing. They like ‘outsiders’ money and culture – just not them, stay away!

Beyond the ones you’d sort of expect to be huge like Toyota, Honda and Yamaha:

Sebu (group).
-Bunch of Railways
-bunch of hotel chains
-Travel agency
-A few sports teams
-Construction firm
-Real estate like stadiums and malls

Mitsubishi
-Bank
-Investment bank
-Power utility
-IT services
-Cars
-Heavy industry
-Chemicals

Mitsui
(many, look it up)

#15 acdel on 06.01.19 at 8:23 pm

7 Millennial Realist

Ha, good on you! Never thought of that myself (personally).

Now, these are the mills stories that I love to read as opposed to the one’s that blame men, society, Trump, or for god sake whatever circumstances they feel so hard done by.

I say, good on you Millennial Realist .. :)

#16 Glengarry Girl on 06.01.19 at 8:48 pm

I really triggered a negative reaction and some disturbing stuff said about me by several of you Deporables. I’m not insecure, actually quite contented. I don’t hate men, I respect and love many men in my life including my husband of 30 years. Someone said my man must be a wimp, you know because I am a strong women. Quite the opposite, he’s a real man, very secure, Alpha. I simply stated that I grow tired of Deplorables and take refuge in Canada this time of the year. I have never commented that I support Trudeau, I’m not Political. I have never voted. I am a George Carlin fan, I think democracy is dead. You are all so polarized in your thinking, that you have a scripted an anti Feminist characterization of any woman that you feel threatened by. One guy on the last chain suggested that I might like to join him and a bunch of his Deplorables at a bar, if I’m good looking, they would pretend to think my ideas are worthy of their time. What a weird fantasy. Anyway, enough already. I am almost home, and I will be making a tremendous effort to avoid this kind of nonsense. If this comment section continues growing with this kind of mysoginistic commentators, I’m going to take a break. Hoping in real life, fellow Canucks haven’t all converted to MAGA wearing asshats over the winter.

#17 Grunt on 06.01.19 at 8:51 pm

BoJ Pearl Harbor. Hedge instead on China and the likes of cheap, Chinese electric car products going global. Due to looming global city legislation. Toyota are convinced that’s not the path and aren’t popping many EV kids.

#18 NEET on 06.01.19 at 8:58 pm

Japan suffered from social malaise, that young men refuse to date, marry or even talk to females. This has given a name of “hikikimori” or “grass eater” a single male who doesn’t even have a job, lives in a shoe box & plays video games all day.

This leads to severely declining birth rates as well, because Japan doesn’t allow mass immigration unlike other industrialized countries.

Japan does make good autos, that’s for sure, compared t the gas guzzling American vehicles.

#19 Investor on 06.01.19 at 9:08 pm

Is it time to buy preffered etf’s?…….zpr,cpd near 52 week lows.

#20 not 1st on 06.01.19 at 9:11 pm

DELETED

#21 acdel on 06.01.19 at 9:27 pm

#16 Glengarry Girl

Perhaps if you not refer us as “deplorables” just for the fact that we have a different opinion as yours may help. To bunch all of us that disagree with you, your quote “Maga wearing ass Hats” is just insulting.

I am glad actually (very happy) that you are happily married. Perhaps respect that many have different opinions as I do yours without calling you a @#%.

#22 Stoner on 06.01.19 at 10:12 pm

#16 Glengarry Girl
You had my vote at George Carlin. I am a political as well and I hope that there there are more men like me although honestly a part of me hopes that all the Deplorables and the SJW asshats soon destroy whatever is left of the world and we don’t have to worry about this nonsense anymore.

#23 Russ on 06.01.19 at 10:14 pm

Glengarry Girl on 06.01.19 at 8:48 pm

I really triggered a negative reaction and some disturbing stuff said about me by several of you Deporables. I’m not insecure, actually quite contented. I don’t hate men, I respect and love many men in my life including my husband of 30 years…
———————————————

Hey Glen Gigi,

I saw a lot of the rebuttal was correcting your assumption that “deplorables” (insert copyright symbol) were only men.

Girls & women can vocally disagree with the status quo too.

In the 70s we were called “rebels” for disagreeing with “the Establishment”.

(queue: Grateful Dead tune)

https://www.etsy.com/market/spank_itself

Cheers, R

#24 Smoking Man on 06.01.19 at 10:18 pm

Doug, your post was informative as hell to multi national types but boring as shit to the dogs on here. You trying to win the record low comments trophy.

Its election season, fire us up. I see you never made the Bilderburg list of invitees.

Maybe next year.

Dr Smoking Man reporting from Funner Califonia.

#25 acdel on 06.01.19 at 10:35 pm

#24 Smoking Man

I have to agree; most of the comments (including mine) are from the previous blog (in which I find nauseating), although I am a George Carlin fan. :)

The one comment I made from his article I guess was not up to his standard to even make a comment. Doug get involved or get lost!

Cannot wait for his smart ass comment; or not! :)

#26 acdel on 06.01.19 at 10:38 pm

I guess I should have commented on James Holzhauer.

Goodnight all!!

#27 Ace Goodheart on 06.01.19 at 10:41 pm

#23 Russ:

That comment made me laugh.

I can just imagine a bunch of angry old white dudes in MAGA hats heading down to Woodstock to party and show their disagreement with the establishment. Led by the Donald himself.

It will be a revolution all right.

They’ll need to change the dictionary definition of “very confused” and add a pic of that motley crew.

Have fun fighting the established order, led by Donald Trump.

Fight the power!

#28 VoiceOfReason on 06.01.19 at 11:01 pm

#2 Learner

Despite what the pathetic blogster says and has said about pensions… Your DB pension Is very much a part of your portfolio. Include it as such unless you have any doubts of receiving it…even if it is underfunded a bit, this is no cause for concern. It is yours and you earned it. Count it but don’t count on it… is the way you should look at it. Very few DBs go bust. Consider it as a fixed income payment as if it were a bond or its commuted value (CV) should you decide to go that route.. Your pension administrator can provide the CV for you as i have no doubt the calculation would be beyond your capabilities.. by the fact that you are asking the question. I could tell you all of the variables that need to be considered but you would need to understand the calculation which is very complex for mere mortal mathematicians.

#29 The Great Gordonski on 06.02.19 at 12:18 am

DELETED

#30 Dolce Vita on 06.02.19 at 1:56 am

#16 Glengarry Girl
#22 Stoner

Ditto, esp. on George Carlin.

Love his Ecowarrior-Unfriendly “The Planet is Fine” (Earth + Plastic, Why We Were Created in the First Place and The Big Electron).

Something that should be played over an intercom for Catherine McKenna the next time she’s at a bar.

—————————–

DOUG (Aside: the weather is fine today, so I won’t take it out on you like last time):

Good write-up and something out of the norm that was nice to read.

Japan is a thick culture as you know, like Italia. They, like us, want to preserve it as it is, GDP be damned (e.g., unlike Canada, we do not have mass immigration to buoy GDP growth). We are both paying the price for that.

Then again, they like us, think some things are worth preserving at all costs.

Good to read Japan is doing all it can to get back to growth without sacrificing its culture and ways.

Salvini trying the same in Italia, to kick start GDP, despite being thwarted by the Unelected Socialist Dominated EU Politburo at every turn. At least Japan does not have that to contend with. And good for them.

You see a lot of Japanese tourists here in Italia, especially on the Amalfi Coast, and what a CLASSY and respectful people they are.

All the best to them.

#31 will on 06.02.19 at 1:56 am

Very stimulating read. Thanx Doug.

#32 Rexx Rock on 06.02.19 at 4:14 am

I lived in japan for a few months in 1997.Its a great country.Very kind and generous people.They are smart and want to preserve there language,culture and race.
Their central bank is printing money ,nirp and eventually bankrupt the country.The sad thing is the people will suffer the conequences just like good old USA will do.This all planned,just ask yourself why?

#33 Glengarry Girl on 06.02.19 at 5:38 am

#12 Farts

I never said that all Deplorables are men. I live in Merica and I am quite aware that there are just as many woman that support Trump. If you actually watch Trump rallies and think that is Normal, I can’t help you. The crowds at those rallies are an insult to any intelligent person. They are so ridiculous that it is frightening.

#21 cadel

Not only do I disagree with you, I have Fear, it is because of people that talk the way you do that I would be very cautious of how I speak other than anonymously. This is new and growing since the fascist uprising of Trump has stirred up and empowered hatred. Asking me to respect another’s point of view while at the same time I have Fear that those ideals are destroying us is not possible. The hatred that MAGA supporters are spewing is very dangerous. MAGA supporters are going to be looked on by historians in the same light as some of the darker times in the past. I simply cannot respect or accept that point of view. I would not associate with a person or have them around my Fsmily if I felt they were dangerous to me. That doesn’t make me narrow minded, it makes me wise.

#34 Evangeline on 06.02.19 at 6:30 am

How’s about Italian Thorn?

A video for Dolce Vita

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=73&v=N7PpCgBYvFg

#35 Glengarry Girl on 06.02.19 at 7:02 am

When I talk about Inequality being a major reason why People are angry, I am referring to economic inequality. It is a fact that this discrepancy from the ultra rich to the rest is the root cause of our discontentment as a Society. Everyone has been effected in different ways, the symptoms include anger, depression, unhealthy lifestyles, addiction, suicide and acts of violence. This is very tragic and sad. Historically, when these conditions occur the weakest in our Society are blamed. In Trumps world, it is the Immigrants. This is simply not true. Many men that can’t have the life they want, blame women, also scary and unfair. These conditions are meant to divide us and we fight against each other instead of directing our attention to the oligarchy that suppresses. In my case, I am not unhappy, I’ve been very lucky. You told me to stop blaming and make something of myself. You don’t even know me. I’m not the Enemy. I am well read on this topic. Just sharing my thoughts on a blog. It should not invoke anger my way, but it does from some. I am a Lover not a Hater, this situation saddens me.

Immigration and Migration, two big topics, that are complicated. I do believe in legal immigration for those that are seeking to work and live in other Countries. Of coarse we need a process, although its cumbersome, it works for those with money and skills that are needed. I have just renewed a 10 year Green Card in the US. Migration from dangerous and oppressed and war torn Countries is another topic. These people also need refuge and first world countries share in that effort. It is only right and just. Read the History books, I would hope that we all can agree that sending these people away that are seeking refuge is wrong. We need to address a humane way to deal with this situation. Also, this Migration is a symptom of economic Inequality.

#36 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.02.19 at 7:54 am

#30
I’m sure you’re happy to see Berlusconi going to Brussels.
Along with lots of Greens from Germany and France.
The “Japanese” tourists are most likely Chinese.
Japanese don’t travel much anymore.
Unlike during the 70s.

#37 Tony on 06.02.19 at 8:20 am

The currency risk is too large even with the U.S. dollar trading at highs. There’s an ETF that hedges the Canadian dollar that’s a Japan fund. I only go long stocks if I have an equal short position on another stocks. I have to believe long term gold and silver bars will be the best performers certainly not stocks even gold or silver stocks I wouldn’t touch long term.

#38 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.02.19 at 8:21 am

I would not worry about the Japanese.
Their ability to suffer through and survive hardship is legendary.
Watch the Seinfeld episode where Krammer rents out drawers of his large dresser to Japanese tourists.

#39 technical analysis? on 06.02.19 at 8:39 am

“The Nikkei 225 has returned 10.7% annually over the past 10 years on a total-return basis, easily eclipsing the 8.2% annual total return of Canada’s S&P/TSX Composite, for example.”
______________________________________

according to Ishares website:

EWJ 10 year total return for the benchmark 7.96%
EWC 10 year total return for the benchmark 7.64%

#40 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.02.19 at 8:47 am

@#16 Glengarry Gal
“If this comment section continues growing with this kind of mysoginistic commentators….”
*****

Well when you state that all Deplorables are men dont be surprised if some men who think Trump is an idiot might take offense at that generalization.

Apparently my generalization that you’re a misandrist is offensive?
See how it works?

I’ll stick to the facts, that aprox. 50% of the people that voted for Trump are female …. (asshats?).
Who knew.
And , no, I dont want to sit in a bar and listen to your one sided SJW drivel.
I get enough of that from the CBC for free.

#41 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.02.19 at 9:06 am

@# 8 Millenial Surrealist

Direct investment in funeral and cemetery industries is something I have been doing for a few years already. No complaints, and this should be very profitable for the next decade which will be the final one for most first stage Boomers.

Thank you, Boomers!”
******

But setting huge plots of arable land aside for embalming a Boomer, putting them in a pretty box and planting them in the ground is so wasteful and……environmentally toxic.

Could it be that Surrealist has realized the futility of blaming Boomers and has joined us on the Dark Side of the Force and knelt before the Ferengi God of Profit?

I am shocked I tell you.

Thats it.

Unlike selfish Millenial Surealist who only thinks of money…and the planet be damned.
I’m saving the planet and getting myself composted and recycled…
Embrace the future Surrealist….or be left in the dust. :)

https://www.businessinsider.com/washington-state-human-compost-bodies-into-soil-2019-5

#42 akashic record on 06.02.19 at 9:12 am

# Glengarry Girl

You seem to come from a good place.

But you don’t recognize that your “Love” is also tainted by “conditions (that) are meant to divide us and we fight against each other instead of directing our attention to the oligarchy that suppresses”.

I doubt that either immigrants or deplorables belong to the “the oligarchy that suppresses”.

#43 akashic record on 06.02.19 at 9:26 am

Japanese people have the right to decide whether they pick bigger weight for the preservation of their culture over GDP.

Natives in North America do the same, they sacrifice their own “GDP”, in an effort to preserve their own culture.

#44 NoName on 06.02.19 at 9:34 am

@gg

Many men that can’t have the life they want, blame women, also scary and unfair.

Generalizing and stereotypeing much?
https://youtu.be/bwDrHqNZ9lo

#45 VicPaul on 06.02.19 at 9:42 am

#140 Glengarry Misandrist
“The Deplorables feel left behind, frustrated, their masculinity is threatened, they have anger toward Women and they blame…”#33 Glengarry Girl on 06.02.19 at 5:38 am
#12 Farts
“I never said that all Deplorables are men”…

“Many men that can’t have the life they want, blame women, also scary and unfair.”

The anti-male sentiment is strong with this one – notwithstanding the lame backpedaling that comes after a little pushback.
Funny, you neglected to mention anywhere how many angry, selfish women are roiling society with self-serving, self aggrandizing or false claims of abuse….unchecked and unpunished if they happen to, you know, lie.
At least you didn’t make it racial – not angry white men, just angry men.

#46 Doug Rowat on 06.02.19 at 10:19 am

#35 Glengarry Girl on 06.02.19 at 7:02 am

When I talk about Inequality being a major reason why People are angry, I am referring to economic inequality. Historically, when these conditions occur the weakest in our Society are blamed.

—-

Commenters on this site blame the 1% Bay Streeters for everything, no?

—Doug

#47 NoName on 06.02.19 at 10:48 am

@fartz

Recycling, your causens were doing it like since forever. I am thinking its because of fosfates…

According to additional research, as engineers laid the railway line between Cairo and Alexandria they kept discovering the tombs of Egyptian mummies. The mummies were shipped to Alexandria where the cloth was shipped to the rag trade and the bones to England to make fertiliser.

According to quarterly magazine ‘The Investigator’ (Q1 1823 edition), in 1822 one million bushels of bones (about eight million gallons) were shipped from France to Hull in East Yorkshire before being ground up and sent to Doncaster for sale as an agricultural fertiliser. These bones were retrieved from the Napoleonic battlefields of Leipsic, Austerlitz and Waterloo. They were not just the bones of horses killed in action but also included the bones of dead soldiers. Indeed the same article goes on to tell us that human bones make the best manure!

And our neighbors down south did a same.

Not officially of course, but permits were granted to collect animal bones and it is inevitable that human bones were also collected. Indeed an account written up in the National Museum of Civil War Medicine says:

https://www.growlikegrandad.co.uk/allotment/soil-nutrients/bone-meal-gruesome-fairy-tale-fertiliser.html

#48 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.02.19 at 10:59 am

#41
Watch the movie Soylent Green with Charlton Heston.
we are only 3 years away from events depicted in that movie.
BTW, wasn’t there a blogdog with the handle “Soylent Green is people” ?

#49 Gravy Train on 06.02.19 at 11:49 am

#40 farts on 06.02.19 at 8:47 am
“Well, when you state that all Deplorables are men […]” She didn’t. You inferred she did. She was referring to a subset of ‘deplorables’ who are men. She even clarified her position in a further comment directed at you: “I never said that all Deplorables are men. I live in Merica and I am quite aware that there are just as many [women] that support Trump.”

“[…] don’t be surprised if some men who think Trump is an idiot might take offense at that generalization.” The assertion ‘all Deplorables are men’ is not logically equivalent to the assertion ‘all men are Deplorables.’ The former assertion merely states, “If Lisa is not a man, she’s not a Deplorable.”
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logical_equivalence

It does not state, “If John is a man, he’s a Deplorable.” You’ve committed the logical fallacy of affirming the consequent.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Affirming_the_consequent

So there’s no reason to be offended. Get it? Oh, and go easy on the women here in the steerage section. Okay? :P

#50 Chris Racco on 06.02.19 at 11:53 am

Even with all the manipulation and money printing and free money given to banks and financial institutions and stolen from people’s savings, no to negative interest rates, the Nikkei 225 Toyko stock market index is still down to 20,601 from around 1989 38,000 down around 46%.

So what your telling us is suckers who bought and hold and at the peak of 1989 and many years in between which nobody ever talks about using only points or levels to make things better than they are is now a 30 year financial loser.

So trading or being in the Nikkei 225 is gambling who would of thought. B y the way, any inflation number they report double or triple it at the very least. This is the true inflation rate.

#51 Doug Rowat on 06.02.19 at 12:45 pm

#50 Chris Racco on 06.02.19 at 11:53 am

…the Nikkei 225 Toyko stock market index is still down to 20,601 from around 1989 38,000 down around 46%.

So what your telling us is suckers who bought and hold and at the peak of 1989 and many years in between which nobody ever talks about using only points or levels to make things better than they are is now a 30 year financial loser.

—-

We don’t time markets short term, but if you can’t make adjustments over a 30-year period then you are a financial loser.

—Doug

#52 NoName on 06.02.19 at 1:00 pm

DELETED

#53 fishman on 06.02.19 at 1:29 pm

Glengarry Girl, This isn’t a classic Marxist capitalist/worker/peasant economic war. This is a cultural war. A war that us deplorables were losing on all fronts. It was nerdy gamers in their parents basement that were the vanguard against post modern neo marxists like yourself. That was five years ago. The sleeping monster as been awoke. This isn;t going back in the cave. There’s a lot more hurt to come.
I wasn’t being weird to you. I was as deliberately disrespectful as i thought I could get away with. Your very wise to be afraid of alpha deplorables. We’ve got thick skins but nothing sets us off like passive aggressive attacks. We can take the ad hominem. I mean look at Garth putting us in steerage. Well, he is the captain. Can’t complainer or we’ll get deep sixed.
The common meme for Tokyo Rose essay is “we are all becoming Japanese.”

#54 Shawn Allen on 06.02.19 at 1:37 pm

Japan 1989 Peak

#50 Chris Racco on 06.02.19 at 11:53 am

… the Nikkei 225 Toyko stock market index is still down to 20,601 from around 1989 38,000 down around 46%.

So what your telling us is suckers who bought and hold and at the peak of 1989 and many years in between which nobody ever talks about using only points or levels to make things better than they are is now a 30 year financial loser.

********************************
It is valid to point out that the Nikkei is still well below the old 1989 peak. That can serve as a warning.

But just how many investors went all in at right around the peak and held and never invested another dollar at subsequent far lower prices? Approximately zero?

Also from memory the news at that time was that the Nikkei P/E was I believe 70 or 80. The lands around the imperial palace were reported to valued at more than all the real estate in California. As bubbles go, I think that one was pretty well known to be a bubble starting at least several years earlier.

There may be valid reasons to eschew making even a small allocation to Japan, but not sure the fact it was in a massive bubble in 1989 would be a valid reason.

Similarly a lot of people avoided the S&P 500 even after it bottomed in 2009 because of the scars from the 2000 bubble and the financial crisis. Whoops. Around 2010 I read so many times the false and in any case not very relevant observation/claim “no one has made any money is stocks in ten years”

#55 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.02.19 at 1:59 pm

@#49 Groovy Train

Good to know you’re hanging on my every word with the word for word “analysis”.

My English teacher in 8th grade ruined many a fine novel the same way.

Seems the majority of responses to
Glenn Gary Misandrist (a bit ironic dont you think ?) are in the same vein of thought as I.

She was slagging all Trump deplorables as males with a wide generalization.
I merely pointed out the fact that Trump has wide support amoung female votes.
And if the truth be known. He wouldnt be President today without the female vote. :)

But we wont ( or cant) talk about that nagging statistic.

Read into it what you will.
I really dont care.

#56 georgist on 06.02.19 at 2:40 pm

> The long-term consequences of the BoJ’s monetary policy, of course, are unknown, though it’s already hurting the commercial banking sector.

So the actual economy is doing well but a cost-center part of the economy is shrinking?

Sounds ideal. MMT for the win.

#57 Learner on 06.02.19 at 4:12 pm

@#28 VoiceOfReason

Thanks for answering my question. I understood it is complex to calculate the actual commuted value (CV). What I want to know is to have a rough idea about how much fixed income amount I already have in the portfolio because of the DB pension. For example, the pension statement gives a projected yearly pension payment of X dollars, which should be equivalent to having a Y dollars of fixed income assets in the portfolio. I want to know if there is formula between X and Y. If a bond ETF typically has 2% yield, so Y = X / 0.02, is this correct? Knowing the Y amount, I probably can reduce the fixed income portion and increase the growth portion in the overall portfolio. Thoughts?

Thanks

#58 Jager on 06.02.19 at 5:46 pm

Garth, to what end are Trumps measures…fully? Should one judge the effect before the cause has manifested in its entirety.

Further, the cause…or the Why?
Where yet again the fake news (i.e. the controlled media) has jaded the perceptions of so many in society.

Presumption does not trump truth in its entirety. Truth will manifest in due time. Patience…