The silent spring. It was shocking when environmentalists first pointed out the growing absence of song birds. (We’ll save the climate change debate for another day. It’s real, by the way.) Now, in terms of the most important assets citizens own, the more terrifying silence.
The housing market’s in worse shape than official stats tell. That’s the view from the ground level. As this blog showed the other day, the vast majority of realtors are starving alley cats. Mortgage brokers are living on bugs. Appraisers and home inspectors are looking for real jobs. The country can no longer support over 110,000 people whose only occupation is flogging houses. Worse, if the bulk of your net worth is in one pile at one address in one city, you better pray it’s the right burg. Like Montreal or Halifax.
But not Vancouver. Or most of the 905. The LM. Victoria, or anywhere near a swollen river (oops, more climate change talk. Sorry.)
There was an interesting tidbit in the Van media this week about a couple who’ve lived almost two decades in a rich hood there. Now retired, they’ve saw their property jump in value to $4 million. Property tax, too, from five grand a year to almost three thousand a month. Meanwhile the house has shed 30% of its value since the Dippers arrived and started killing the market. So, yes, the place is now listed.
The lefties and moisters on this blog will have no sympathy. They’ll fail to understand these people weren’t speculators, did nothing to pump the worth of their property, and are powerless as it deflates. But government actions have turned a correction into a growing crash. It was inevitable Mr. Market would turn tale and pop the speculative bubble. No help was needed from a foreign buyer tax, a spec tax, a vacancy tax or extra property tax. Even the stress test. It’s all been overkill, say the people affected. But because there are many fewer dinged owners than envious renters, nothing will change. The rout will continue.
It’s been asked a few times here why this is happening, and who’d getting gouged. Politicians point out that at least 95% of the population pays none of these taxes. So if they have cratered the market, it must prove Chinese dudes, dirty money and speckers were driving things.
Not so fast. It’s psychology which fuels markets. Not taxes. Not foreigners. Not even macroecononics or mortgage rates.
Human nature makes us crave what is rising in value. Assets become popular, desirous, wanted. The more that they rise in value the greater the worry they will swell forever, becoming unattainable. So people rush in, their breasts beating with FOMO, borrowing and paying too much. The zenith was two years ago, with 30% year/year price gains recorded monthly in the GTA or Vancouver. Yes, it bred speculation. Half the condo sales in Toronto went to people with no intention of living in them.
Governments reacted to a perception real estate was out of control. And it was. But not because of offshore buyers or people hoarding vacant units. It was on fire from widespread, across-the-bard demand after realtors, politicians and the media managed to convince most people it was no bubble, but the future. The result was insatiable demand and reckless behaviour.
Now we’re on the other side of the mountain. It’s not that a bevy of new taxes and regulations have killed off real estate by shutting out offshore buyers or that the stress test itself eliminated first-timers. Instead, it’s a sense buying now would be catching a falling knife, that prices are crazy inflated and especially that peer pressure to do so has evaporated. In short, when people think something, it exists. Mortgages are cheap, real estate is cheaper, competition has vanished and choice has blossomed. Yet sales fall. See what I mean?
Anyway, what now?
The prognosis is poor unless May numbers bounce back strongly. The summer months usually bring less demand, while the second half of 2019 will be dominated by political uncertainty and macro events like the seething Sino trade war. Trump is getting more controversial, not less, and we’re steaming towards a pivotal national election in October. You can probably rule out any more interest rate cuts, given the latest jobs numbers. And it looks like the stress test is here to stay.
In short, the advice stands. If you need a house and can afford it without dumping all your net worth in there, go ahead. It’s better than last year. But don’t call it an investment. Or a retirement plan. It’s just a place to live and you may indeed see lost equity.
Having said that, the longer you wait, the cheaper things will get. When everyone calls you a moron – do it.
159 comments ↓
First!
There is a tremendous amount of speculators here in Vancouver/GVRD-Lower Mainland
The tide is receding and they are exposed
How can you not dump all of your worth into a house at today’s prices?
Trump needs to listen to Bannon more. He knows what China is up to.
Carol James is rocking it. She said we have not yet seen the downturn/crash in BC yet.
“Yet” being the key word. It’s coming.
And as painful as it might be the reset is necessary for the long run in BC.
No more dirty money in BC.
Then the BCLibs can come to the rescue and make shady money flows in BC great again and tout how good they are for the economy.
Garth – (We’ll save the climate change debate for another day. It’s real, by the way.)
Passively goading us into the debate!
Having said that, the longer you wait, the cheaper things will get. When everyone calls you a moron – do it. – G.T.
_______________________________________
Does anyone think we will see prices in the GTA hit 2014 levels? Please back it up with statistics or historical charts.
Thanks! :D
Some in Vancouver are truly tired of the empty house syndrome. Empty houses within urban boundaries definitely should be taxed differently. There is a lot of planning/schooling, etc. that goes into these hoods.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-vancouvers-housing-crash-is-a-mostly-welcomed-event/
Empty ‘houses’ in rural areas – especially those underserved or in ‘unorganized’ townships – not much of a problem there.
…these people weren’t speculators, did nothing to pump the worth of their property, and are powerless as it deflates.
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Agreed.
Their only crime was to leave money on the table for too long. Had they been owners of assets beyond a single house they would have understood the twin concepts of balance and diversification, then acted sooner.
What was only a house becomes a ball and chain.
When everyone calls you a moron – do it.
but I’ve been calling buyers morons for the last 2 years!
#5 – Does anyone think we will see prices in the GTA hit 2014 levels? Please back it up with statistics or historical charts.
inflation-adjusted? yes… but look up your own damn charts!
during a crash prices almost always dip below the long-term average
We’ll save the climate change debate for another day. It’s real, by the way.
Yeah, its called seasons
On the psychology of markets:
In Real Estate, sellers set the prices.
On the way up, sellers set the prices. Not a lot of people willing to sell their asset for less than their neighbours got.
On the way down, sellers set the prices. Not a lot of people willing to accept a lower price than they think their asset is worth.
Have a $4M house to sell? Why not sell it for $3M, and cut your property transfer tax, commissions, and whatever else payable by 25%?
Oh, right. Because you can’t tolerate the loss.
On City TV in Vancouver this week, there was coverage of a group of local (Point Grey, Vancouver West Side) protesting the values that their homes had lost, as a result of all these NDP government interventions, at the office of their local MLA, David Eby.
Lots of white-haired folk cursing and moaning about how their homes were declining in value, ‘because of all the TAXES the provincial government had slapped on’ and how the government was ‘using them as bank machines’ with all the taxes.
But if it’s ‘The Market’ that giveth, and ‘The Market’ taketh away, then why complain about the taxes?
Most multi-decade homeowners are probably deferring their property taxes anyway. (Note: BC allows people over 55 to defer paying property taxes at 2 to 4% interest for multiple years, until the property sells).
Todays Pic: Best Dog ever!!! Boxer, so good with kids and protective by instinct, boy I miss her.
LB
It already looking like it’s going to be another hot, smokey summer in BC. Snowpack was lower than normal. Not good for people with respiratory problems. Might be time to leave this fantasy land and make a move to Alberta.
Ian and Sylvia – Four Strong Winds (CBC TV 1986)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B3m7ckGhnsc
(We’ll save the climate change debate for another day. It’s real, by the way.)
=================================
So is Santa..the Easter Bunny…and Lucky Charms Leprechaun…all of whom own RE and invest in Gold.
I bought in the 905 , twice, Richmond hill 17 years ago and 15 years ago and very glad about the hood I chose and the result.
I guess much like the financial asset advice often touted here , I am a long term investor that doesn’t panic at every downtick.
Garth: “Worse, if the bulk of your net worth is in one pile at one address in one city, you better pray it’s the right burg. Like Montreal or Halifax.”
I’m sure you make a lot of Montreal realtors happy with the claim that it’s safe to have all of your net worth in one asset – housing – if it’s in Montreal.
You’ve made it clear several times in the past that housing bubbles form when house prices skyrocket without similar gains in incomes (to prevent overvaluation).
Since 2000 house prices in Montreal have tripled while incomes have barely budged. (Teranet’s index)
A Montreal realtor has been sending me quotes of yours from previous years. He’s really worried about Montreal’s housing bubble – noting the fact that prices have skyrocketed there while incomes have barely moved.
And he’s not happy about the media pumping the market as though it’s pretty much undervalued.
Housing price gains and income gains are the only two metrics needed to determine overvaluation. This is what the Economist uses and it’s what you’ve used several times in the past.
Why are you not applying these basic metrics to Montreal’s housing market and properly assessing it the way you would have in the past?
It’s no secret that Montreal’s housing price run-up since 2002 makes San Francisco’s look small (fifth chart) while incomes have barely moved.
As you said about Nanaimo’s housing market in early 2009:
“How can values rise 81%, when incomes didn’t budge?
Clearly you are ignoring these facts when it comes to Montreal.
…. who’ve lived almost two decades in a rich hood Now retired, they’ve saw their property jump in value to $4 million. Property tax, too, from five grand a year to almost three thousand a month. Meanwhile the house has shed 30% of its value since the Dippers arrived and started killing the market. So, yes, the place is now listed.
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Sorry, the numbers cannot be correct. Someting is over-estimated here by a factor of 2. It cannot be 3K per month in property tax for a 4M home.
Let’s suppose the place is 4.5M (more than claimed). The base rate is 2.56 multiplier from the table
https://vancouver.ca/home-property-development/residential.aspx
surtax would be 2000K (based on 0.02 from 2M up to 3M)
+ 2000K (based on 0.04 from 4M to 4.5M)
I calculate a total of 15.5 (roughly) per year, which is 1/2 of the number the couple quoted (and taken as fact in this blog), and moreover is based on a 4.5M house and not a 4M house.
Estimate is off by a factor of 2.
Indeed the extra surtax of 4K is high for a couple who has long retired, and had a windfall by owning over the past 20 years. However, just defer part of the taxes if need be (since likely over 55) and don’t worry. As the assessment declines so will your taxes.
#5 NotLegalAdvice on 05.23.19 at 5:30 pm
Having said that, the longer you wait, the cheaper things will get. When everyone calls you a moron – do it. – G.T.
_______________________________________
Does anyone think we will see prices in the GTA hit 2014 levels? Please back it up with statistics or historical charts.
Thanks! :D
————————-
Not a chance .
As for backup, my gut, observations and understanding of the average Canadian ,along with my instincts is all I need to answer that question definitely
Hi Garth what do you think real estate in Calgary? I’m planning to put an offer in purchasing our first home. Thanks
Cue the collective schadenfreude in 3… 2…1…
#100 Dolce Vita on 05.22.19 at 8:28 pm
#83 Long-Time Lurker
Ya, fine idea. Let’s give a bunch of 15 and 16-year-olds a Business Simulator when they don’t even know the difference between Simple and Compound Interest, let alone how to calculate it.
Or the difference between a debit and credit, an asset or a liability, a preferred share or dividend, etc….
>Teach and play. The guy wanted on-line resources.
I had a better idea but didn’t want to share it here.
Work for it.
I have a funny story about high school. I had a classmate in high school who was always slacking off, goofing off and cheating on exams (with my help). When I was 25 I met another friend from high school and asked him, “What happened to A?” He said that he moved to another country and started a successful shipping business.
I’ll throw a bone. Big stock market shocks in June.
It is true that the ever rising price of housing was not due to actions taken by those who own them. In fact, examples of properties for sale on this very blog would normally be taken as evidence of owners actively reducing the value of the property for sale. Yet those horrible properties not only sold, they sold for prices that most could not realistically afford. Take today’s example. Four million down 30% is still 2.8 million. Still way out of reach for the average income earner. Even one percenters might find such a purchase beyond their ability to handle – especially given how high the property tax is.
I’m just presuming the current owners are old enough to utilize BC’s property tax deferral program. I can’t recall if it is only available for seniors or whether it is available to anyone whose income has not kept pace with their wildly inflating property values. One wonders just how much real estate will eventually be owned by the local government…..
“Having said that, the longer you wait, the cheaper things will get. When everyone calls you a moron – do it.”
Lol- so true!
My parents are those people you write about. Bought cheap in a good neighbourhood 20 years ago, some sweat equity and watched the value soar! Tried to get them to sell, no luck. “we like our house, what am I going got do with money?” My Pops would say.
Now what- my Dad is 70 and works to pay taxes, but says he enjoys working. They gonna ride the value back down without a care in the world. After all it’s a place to live, not an investment (for some).
The kicker now is the school tax on homes Valued over 3 Mill (I think?). My parents are getting penalized with more tax for doing nothing but living in their home.
And just to clarify, the old man is a blue collar business owner. Still wears the pouch and hammer today.
This tax might be obsolete for them soon as there neighbours sold for 1.1Mill under asking last month. 35% drop from list price- Yikes!
If climate change is real, which I believe in as well, could we talk about how going towards a plant based diet could help/solve this problem.
Climate change is real – Garth
—-”————
And who says it isn’t? Right now I’m looking out the window at what was once prime oceanfront property. 20 million years ago. And at a walk-in beer fridge that was under 2 miles of ice …. 20,000 years ago. All you do is point out the absurdity and dishonesty of the term “climate change” when describing what has grotesquely evolved into a political issue.
But how about China? Everyone gets the threat of backdoors built into the Huawei 5G systems but how about their plans to build 300 coal fired electricity plants over the next few years? I’m certain that Notleys plans to close Albertas one or two coal fired plants would more than offset China’s 300 new plants.
Climate change isn’t the biggest danger. Us doing something stupid to mitigate a problem that we can’t even give an honest name to is.
Not my words. – Garth
#19 Crv on 05.23.19 at 6:14 pm
Hi Garth what do you think real estate in Calgary? I’m planning to put an offer in purchasing our first home. Thanks
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Go back a few blogs, he already said its a buy. Blood on the streets!
Ric Pow, the poor senior quoted in that article, is principal of a home building company, a fact that should have precluded CBC from trotting him out as a victim of current housing market conditions.
Just look up his Linkd In profile.
Look, the guy has a $4 million dollar home that increased in value 4x over the past 18 years but will somehow leave him unable to “survive” retirement. I’d say he’s somewhere close to last in the line of people needing government help.
Also, according to the advice you give on this blog, he should be Exhibit A of what happens when you put all your eggs in one basket. He must have made a killing building homes in Vancouver over the past few years. If he had a diversified retirement portfolio he could easily afford those taxes. Which he wouldn’t even have to pay if he wasn’t selling.
RE: “The silent spring. It was shocking when environmentalists first pointed out the growing absence of song birds. (We’ll save the climate change debate for another day. It’s real, by the way.)”
Lots of song birds in the backyard today. Toronto has many of them.
Climate change: Yes, the climate changes. No, humans do not cause the changes.
Yes, your local liberal government is going to keep adding new taxes to “fight climate change”, and they’re going to send the money to liberal connected organizations and groups, located domestically and internationally.
No, none of this money will ever have any effect on “climate change” (which isn’t caused by people anyway).
We can go back about 2000 years worth of human history.
We can go back about 500,000 years of climate history.
The earth is 4.543 billion years’ old
If you look at planet earth as a calendar, and from beginning to present is a year, our known history is less than a second.
During those 4.543 billion years, the climate has changed a lot.
People have been here for about 500,000 years. During which time, our climate has ranged much more drastically than it has in the last 2000 years or so.
Don’t even give yourselves credit for being able to influence the climate history of a minor planet in a minor solar system on the outskirts of a very minor galaxy, in what is probably one of many universes.
We don’t have that power….
…CRV….. as a long term Calgary resident who is moving back after 4 years in BC, we can’t believe how much house prices have fallen in Calgary and what amazing deals there are on great homes BUT the market continues to decline with no sign of a bottom in sight so why would you buy now??? We are renting for at least the next year to see what happens before we even consider buying.
Governments reacted to a perception real estate was out of control. And it was. But not because of offshore buyers or people hoarding vacant units.
There is no reliable data on offshore buyers, but I can tell you having grown up in Vancouver, we have been overrun. I am a conservative but I thank god the NDP got in. The corrupt liberals were turning a blind eye, I won’t be surprised if the public inquiry shows they were actually aiding and abetting the money launderers.
I read your blog because you write well and are amusing but I am sure thankful I never took your advise.
“..Governments reacted to a perception real estate was out of control. And it was. But not because of offshore buyers or people hoarding vacant units…”
_ _ _
Not according to this reputable columnist in Canada’s newspaper of record:
“I’ll never forget the vans.
They began appearing on our street sometime in the summer of 2017. They would stop and disgorge groups of people looking to buy homes in our sleepy little village, Tsawwassen, roughly a half-hour drive from Vancouver. Real estate agents accompanying them would knock on our door, wondering whether we were interested in selling.
Their clients, we were told, were investors from China. They were prepared to pay a premium for homes in our neighbourhood. And buy they did – houses that in many cases were never occupied and, in some cases, sit empty and silent to this day, grim reminders of a maddening, and in many ways heartbreaking epoch in British Columbia’s history…”
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-vancouvers-housing-crash-is-a-mostly-welcomed-event/
Are you saying he is a liar?
Confirms what I wrote. Hook, line and sinker… – Garth
“Climate Change” – commenting on this has become similar to commenting on the Arab-Israeli conflict.
You’re not allowed to study it.
You’re not allowed to have an opinion.
You’re told what to think, and you have to think it. Do not do any research. Do not look into it. Just repeat as you are told…
But you should really look into these things. As soon as your government tells you “this is right, do not question it” you should be just totally digging into that thing, and doing all the independent research you can.
I remember when I did my own research into the Arab Israeli situation. I came out of that like “WTF, Israel is like totally in the wrong here, this is so completely mis-reported, why does no one know the truth about this?”
Of course, if you say that, then they label you an “anti semite” (even though Palestinians are also Semites – so no matter what side of the fence you are on, you are actually an “anti Semite). You literally cannot have an opinion.
Climate change is like that. Do some research, look into it, and you are like “this is total bunk, why do people believe this? What a load of hooey. This is garbage. They are making this up”.
But you are not allowed to do research. Or think. You just have to say what you are told to say and think what you are told to think.
This is really the beginning of the end, if we are not allowed to look into things and have our own opinions on stuff.
My advice is this:
Do your own research before you form an opinion on anything.
If you are told “you must think this is true, you cannot argue with it, do not do your own research, just believe it” you are very likely, about 99% of the time, being told a lie.
#16 you are so right, in the in-demand districts in Montreal, prices have quadrupled since 1998, tripled since 2004, and doubled since 2009. Lots and lots of corrupt money from Iran, Africa, the Middle East, Russia and, rapidly growing, China. In contrast to BC, our politicians are purposely looking the other way; possibly encouraged by a long history of government corruption in the province.
We were thinking of moving south soon (to the Kelowna area), but it may now be wise to wait for a couple more years to get a better price.
(Or does it really matter, since we’re all doomed from climate change and may as well throw ourselves over a cliff, rather than being burned to death or drowned in the rising seas).
And yes I “believe” in climate change, Garth – the climate has been changing since the beginning of time on this rock and will continue to do so, mankind or not. You can take that to the bank. (Sorry, I had to bite).
“Envious renters”
———-
Garth, if you call educated, hardworking middle class people who grew up here and contributed all along the way, and would like to be able to obtain modest, secure housing in the only land they know, “envy” then fine I guess. But it’s a bit of a misnomer, don’t you think?
It might be real, but is it caused by humans?
Very well-written and informative post. Thank you
(We’ll save the climate change debate for another day. It’s real, by the way.)
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Is it as real as the fraudulent “markets”?
Garth, we decided to buy a place in Vancouver. For the inspection, I tried calling 3 inspector and all of them were fully booked for the next 4 day. Yes, housing market is down, but things are not as bad as you make it sound. Good places are seeing good footfalls during open houses and still selling at ~1*Assessment price.
#19 Crv on 05.23.19 at 6:14 pm
Hi Garth what do you think real estate in Calgary? I’m planning to put an offer in purchasing our first home. Thanks
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Now that’s funny.
Leading with climate change, that’s just dangling a red flag in front of the trolls. But seriously, the insect crash has me spooked. Plant lots of butterfly and bee flowers at least this year.
the wealthy barber ;-) https://www.facebook.com/ItsGoneViralOfficial/posts/2478756729067396?sfnsw=cl
Definitely no sympathy from me.
I own assets..raw land, commercial land, a commercial building and businesses, I even have a B&D portfolio, thanks Garth.
If one of my assets skyrocketed to retirement levels, I would sell it. Wouldn’t think twice..where am I going to live.. What do I do with my stuff..All good problems to have and Id recommend figuring them out on a Caribbean cruise.
You looked a gift horse in the mouth and said nah..and now you’re mad about it? Yeesh, talk about first world problems.
Garth, I have read your blog since its inception. Always felt you had insight into the house horny publics motivation. However you seem now to defend the inflated prices i.e. Vancouver and Toronto that were achieved on little other than greed. What did a 4 mil $$ house owner do to see a ten fold gain in 20 years. Nothing but sit still and watch. Now they whine as it slides back like they are losing something they earned. Greed in persona !
We fail to see that the politicians and bankers fed this greed as property assessments went up, municipal budgets went up and GNP soon depended on a large chunk of greedy people selling to each other led by dirty money at many levels.Greed Greed Greed .Any effort to deflate these greed fed property levels were a forewarned result for anyone with the slightest investment knowledge. When the music stops not everyone has a chair.
In any event the governments of several countries, Canada at the forefront, loaded the imagined GNP of residential real estate expansion on to the backs of its citizens in never ending mortgages while pushing the FOMO doctrine. Fed Libs are still trying to do it with current announced election “housing incentive”.
One simple step could change the whole shit storm.
Only Canadian resident citizens should be allowed to own Canada residential properties and farm land. These are resources just like clean water, air, trees, wild life. When comes a time that our water is up for bid to the highest price? Or our air, parks, streams , lakes mountains. Resources. We sold our souls to housing greed. Next?
Big, big fan of liquids myself…
M44BC
“China and the Trade War: How Liquidity Reserves Can Affect the Game.
A country’s total reserves can have a dramatic impact on its economic policies. In this post, we’ll look at the countries with the top reserves, especially China, and how that should impact China’s trade wars with the U.S.
Liquid reserves allow countries significant leverage in economic policies and trade wars.
China currently holds over $3 trillion in reserves, far higher than Japan’s second-place $1.24 trillion in reserves.
China also holds a significant amount of U.S. debt, forcing them to walk a tight rope with the U.S.; they don’t want to rock the boat too much, but they have tremendous leverage to use if necessary.
If China were to sell off its reserves, it would have cascading effects on the economy, including driving up U.S. interest rates.
You don’t fight a trade war without ammunition on both sides. In compiling the data of the largest reserves–or total reserves measured in U.S. dollars–you’ll find a keen perspective as to why the markets seem to react to every headline related to the U.S.-China trade wars.
Why do liquid reserves matter? As it relates to trade wars, a country’s reserve stockpile has a large say in how much economic weight it can throw around. If China stockpiles a large amount of U.S. dollars, it can influence the value of its own currency, the yuan, which is pegged in U.S. dollars. Given that China holds over $3 trillion in reserves–far higher than Japan’s second-place $1.24 trillion–any movement from China can mean massive economic consequences for the globe.
Top 5 Countries with the Biggest Liquidity Reserves
1. China: $3.09 Trillion
2. Japan: $1.24 Trillion
3. Switzerland: $744 Billion
4. Saudi Arabia: $496 Billion
5. Taiwan: $462 Billion
How (and Why) Countries Use Liquidity Reserves
The reason any investor would want to hold liquidity is obvious: it makes an investor more flexible. It keeps one’s options open. But on a geopolitical level, liquidity has far-ranging uses. Countries can employ these reserves strategically to help manage the supply (and value) of their home currencies. This, in turn, can influence the price of exports. If a country like Japan manages its reserves well, it can compete with dominant exporters like China by making its products relatively cheap to consumers like the U.S. These reserves give countries economic power and financial weight for throwing around.
We constructed this graphic according to IMF Data, which provides a comprehensive list of variables that go into factoring each country’s liquid reserves.
How the Reserves Impact the U.S.-China Trade War
Because the exchange rates between currencies have such an impact on a country’s exports, one can expect these numbers to have a drastic effect on trade wars. In particular: the U.S.-China trade war.
Consider that China holds a significant amount of U.S. debt. This gives China leverage if they’re unable to otherwise respond to tariff threats from the U.S. China’s ability to buy up U.S. government debt also means that it has the ability to unload that debt in massive amounts at a moment’s notice. Drastically increasing the market supply with U.S. treasuries would, in turn, push down U.S. bond prices. With lower bond prices come higher yields, discouraging the free flow of credit in the U.S.
If China were ever to sell off these reserves, notes Bloomberg: after a cascade of effects, such a move could also drive down the value of the U.S. dollar. Low currency costs would mean that U.S. products are cheaper and more competitive on the global marketplace.
China faces a delicate balancing act with its substantial reserves. Though it could drive up U.S. interest rates, driving down the value of the dollar would also have adverse trade consequences. Watching how China manages its substantial reserves will be integral to understanding the progress of the trade war.”
23 May 2019
Visualization
https://howmuch.net/articles/international-liquidity-country
#31 Northerner (for now) on 05.23.19 at 7:06 pm
We were thinking of moving south soon (to the Kelowna area), but it may now be wise to wait for a couple more years to get a better price.
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Might find better value and better quality of life finding somewhere you like to live in the Kootenay region…
M44BC
Sorry Garth but this was the only line that caught my attention: The silent spring. It was shocking when environmentalists first pointed out the growing absence of song birds.
What a crock of SH*T; here in Calgary I have never heard or seen so many birds, if you have your window open just a bit every bird out there starts signing at 3:30 a.m.; for me I love it, but for god sake stop listening to these left wing alarmist (everyone) that tell you different; what an absolute lie! Ok, feel better now telling it as it actually is, no lies, no asking for funds, no exaggerating the truth, not asking you to feel sorry for me; I can take care of myself, I love birds; hate the Felix’s that kill them.
Background. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/15/science/endangered-species-cites.html – Garth
https://twitter.com/mortimer_1/status/1131705469943156736
#11 Smartalox on 05.23.19 at 5:54 pm
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Great points and very well expressed.
Geez- I feel like a cheerleader today. Nothing to dispute
Hey guys, Canada 30 year bond is 1.88%. When BREXIT happened it was pushed down to 1.55%. These are depression era interest rates.
This means big time downturn coming. CIBC down 7% in 2 days.
Response to Garth.
Background. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/15/science/endangered-species-cites.html – Garth
Ok, fair enough, but we are taking care of our own; perhaps these countries should do the same as us?? It does not take money to make a difference; just an attitude, education from people within willing to teach.
That’s all; just a conversation!
Maybe there aren’t any song birds because everybody is living in a soul sucking suburb in a urban spawl cesspit or worse yet a shady condo. Why would the natural world grace your presence when you have no connection to it? You want birds to come and sing in your window while you stare blankly at your smart phone ordering plastic junk from china? Most people cant even recognize nature if it hit them in the face.
Got nothing to do with climate change and more to do with the human condition.
#45 Flop… on 05.23.19 at 7:28 pm
—-
The fed just sold 4.5T worth of treasuries in the past few yrs. Unwound all the QE in the system and the economy roared ahead. Do your worst china, start dumping. It won t amount to anything. US allies stand ready to buy up all that debt.
Personally, I could care less if bad government policy or markets normalize real estate (mean reversion).
We cannot have billions upon billions indefinitely tied up in over-valued non-productive assets. Money better spent driving real economic growth (consumption of goods and services) and investment in innovation.
Truth be told, markets did not get us in this mess. Central bankers and governments fanned the flames as the market spiralled upward for over a decade. Almost free money rained down on domestic and foreign-buyers alike!
An orderly correction is no longer in the cards in my opinion.
It’s going to get messy but it’s the only way to reset our economy and put it on the correct path.
Don’t agree. April showed some strength YOY and May will be even better. The feeling on the ground here in GTA is not what you claim it is; not at all. Speculation may not be at peak greed, but GTA chugs along.
I told you April would be good for GTA and I am telling you now that May will be as well.
I listened today at the lunchroom chatter in my office. People were congratulating each other with respect to their investment condos that they just bought. Others were giving advice, because they are convinced that real estate can never go down. This is the 416 area. These are health care professionals. This was the same chatter a few years ago and it continues. These are the people that drive prices up. Until not. Wonder what they will say then.
About Climate Change (previously known as Anthropogenic Global Warming…till ‘the pause’, of course), one serious video I’ve watched recently, at link below.
Addresses many parameters of complexity in solar radiations I hadn’t considered before – and I’m guessing Al Gore has no interest in hearing about (for obvious reasons):
https://youtu.be/NYoOcaqCzxo
quote:
“We must stop pollution for reasons of biosphere toxicity, NOT because of climate change. The TSI model of solar forcing ignores nearly all climate forcing aspects of space weather AND applies that forcing to the human total. This video shows that fact in a way that anyone can understand.”
TCC
#39 Vipin on 05.23.19 at 7:18 pm
Garth, we decided to buy a place in Vancouver. For the inspection, I tried calling 3 inspector and all of them were fully booked for the next 4 day. Yes, housing market is down, but things are not as bad as you make it sound. Good places are seeing good footfalls during open houses and still selling at ~1*Assessment price.
______________
Some people still listen to there Realtor “Moron’s”
And now the truth.
Since 2008 the public sector should have been reigning it in. But they had to find a way to rip you off for an additional 12 years.
No better way than goose non-productive assets with ultra low rates and create the artificial wealth effect.
Selective infrastructure spending would have been a more prudent way to deal with the financial crisis in Canada.
But why? Easier to take advantage of Canadian stupidity.
Their pensions are golden and your poverty is becoming realized.
You’ll find out what polarization means when you collapse from imprudent debt and no pension plan.
To add insult to injury they will raise your property taxes.
You’ve been had. They took it all.
35 HT on 05.23.19 at 7:09 pm
“Envious renters”
———-
Garth, if you call educated, hardworking middle class people who grew up here and contributed all along the way, and would like to be able to obtain modest, secure housing in the only land they know, “envy” then fine I guess. But it’s a bit of a misnomer, don’t you think?
============
To the extent that foreigners should not be allowed to own RE …..and to the limited extent they had on the market……I agree with you, because only citizens and permanent residents should enjoy the fruits of a country.
Beyond that, “envious renters” is exactly right.
What stopped these people from buying years ago, just like the homeowners did?
Why didn’t they take the risks then?
Why didn’t they scrimp and save hard enough to put down a deposit then?
Why is every person’s prosperity in this country, something another person should be entitled to?
Those people who are having their properties forcibly depreciated by comrade Horgan and company are being robbed, with democracy simply being a tyranny of the envious majority.
#56 Reality is stark on 05.23.19 at 8:21 pm
That’s a great summarization. Regrettably most stupid people will not wake up to the fact that government is the problem anytime soon……..if ever.
For those with little if any sympathy for seniors and high property taxes.
The issue is SPENDING.. are the taxes justified ?
The City of Vancouver paid more than 1,300 staff over $100,000 last year
https://globalnews.ca/news/4158835/vancouver-city-staff-salaries/
=====================
List reveals highest-paid City of Vancouver employees
https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/list-reveals-highest-paid-city-of-vancouver-employees
Garth,
Some developers have been pulling back. Here are some numbers, especially shocking in the Lower Mainland. I suppose they know what they are doing:
https://www.vancourier.com/real-estate/one-in-five-proposed-vancouver-housing-units-has-been-shelved-report-1.23830252
LM
A little bit of Canadiana to brighten our northern hemisphere: back in the early 60’s where I harken from(Northern New Brunswick) in many little villages and towns “outdoor plumbing” still was part of every person’s personal hygiene. My family was more evolved on that front but we did live in the 19th century in that my dad chopped the wood to heat our home. Dad worked six days a week and twelve hour days out in that eight months of winter you get in N.B. up until he near cut his hand off …then we got “oil” and joined the rest of real middle class Canada. Out in the Maritimes where jobs are few and far between if you asked them about our “China issue”…the answer would be: Why didn’t the PM’s people give a shout out to “our Chinese friends” and avoid all this unnecessary job loss. Folks down east…heh u try living without a job
Garth, I feel like you have a real cognitive blindspot and this part of your post illustrates it nicely.
>There was an interesting tidbit in the Van media this week about a couple who’ve lived almost two decades in a rich hood there. Now retired, they’ve saw their property jump in value to $4 million. Property tax, too, from five grand a year to almost three thousand a month. Meanwhile the house has shed 30% of its value since the Dippers arrived and started killing the market. So, yes, the place is now listed.
>The lefties and moisters on this blog will have no sympathy. They’ll fail to understand these people weren’t speculators, did nothing to pump the worth of their property, and are powerless as it deflates.
1. The people owning that house did nothing to deflate its value, but they’re also not responsible for its inflated value to begin with.
2. The “Dippers” are addressing systemic issues that allowed house prices to become vastly overinflated to begin with. That the couple was, for some reason, happy paying $36,000 per year in property tax while the home was worth $4m, but now cries foul, seems strange. They could have sold at $4m. Instead, like speculators, they held on hoping that the house would gain more value (since the property tax is implicitly the reason for them selling?) If NDP policies had been in place to begin with, the house would never have overinflated and they would never have been forced out by property tax to begin with.
3. I’m supposed to feel sorry for people whose house increased 10x in value over 20 years (absolutely CRUSHING the stock market in that time)? Just because the housing market has a correction, and the house is no longer worth 14x its original value? Especially when this housing market correction is making homes more affordable for actual Canadians?
The term is psychic income… when people believe their income will grow, they buy cars and high ticket items. When they fear the worst, it all evaporates.
The psychic income is being crushed by high gas, taxes and these collective punishment measures.
It all leads to bad news for all sectors, so hang on. Let’s hope the left enjoys their self imposed poverty.
When everyone calls you a moron – do it.- GT
Yes I did . On early 2009 I was in, and I was out 2017 April. In both cases I was called as moron…
Re: #45 Flop… on 05.23.19 at 7:28 pm
China’s reserves.
Riddle me this, spidey senses tingling.
IMO, with all those reserves, what would stop China using Triads/private citizens/undercover military, with the backing of those reserves to buy up a country or two’s assets, including their RE, thereby committing a bloodless take over, laughing all the way to the bank. And more than likely with the takeover country’s paid off insiders/politicians, repaying the Opium Wars/industrial revolution devastation they endured and are enduring. Much has been written about how our illustrious leaders of all stripes with bags of dough floating their way.
Why do most politicians bee-line to China once they get voted and sworn in?
That’s probably why nothing is/has been done these past 20 years….
Sold out.
To add to #27 Michelle:
From Bob Mackin
What do two mining executives, an event planner and veteran restaurateur have in common?
They are behind an anonymous website opposing the NDP school surtax and the phoney tax notices mailed to thousands of Point Grey residents.
The B.C. Corporate Registry lists Jonathan Rubenstein, Brian Edgar, Lana Pulver and Bud Kanke as directors of STEP UP. But you won’t find their names on StepUpNow.ca, which anonymously solicits donations and personal information.
“I am not at liberty to put you in touch with them, because they’re reluctant,” Rubenstein told theBreaker in a phone interview. “I do not have personal authority over the website, so I’m not at liberty to answer your question about what thinking went into that.”….
https://thebreaker.news/business/who-is-stepup/
Gotta love the blind partisans.
To all those blog dawgs who doubt my savings skills:
– teach in an overseas university (salary now at $120K/year)
– live in modest 1 bedroom apartment, rent = $1,600 / month
– no car (bike to work)
– no cable
– no home internet
– no expensive mobile plan.
Expenses all in $3,000 / month.
Savings $3,100 / month (into ETF portfolio).
Retirement (taken directly out of my paycheque) $2,400 / month
Saved $400,000 in 7 years.
Done and dusted.
Been reading GreaterFool since starting my job in 2012, and have adopted Garth’s advice.
Profits on my Garth-Approved ETF portfolio have paid for the wedding.
Even ole’ Smoking Man might learn a thing or 2.
Re; Climate change.
The major threat to our planet, in my opinion, is the number of (irresponsible) species called “Homo Sapiens”
Another billion every 10 years or so now.
(A good thing fertility rates are slipping!)
Of course a major cataclysmic event could restore the equilibrium, practically overnight.
I wonder sometimes, what if there were still a few Dinosaurus or T. rexes alive today, what resources would be expended to try saving them ???
and what benefits would it result in ??
#21 Long-Time Lurker
The one thing I noticed teaching the little children born out of wedlock was that some were what I call “Street Smart” (EQ). Not brilliant in their grades but usually in the 70%, or a bit more, range in average marks BUT they did very well in industry, in management or entrepreneurship. There was usually 1 every year for the 20 or so years I taught.
Spotted each one of them – kept in touch with them (wanted to verify that I spotted them correctly). Taught about 8,000 to 10,000 in my career. Of those 20 or so, 5 were not only “Street Smart” but also brilliant, academically and otherwise (EQ + IQ).
Your friend reads like 1 of those 20. They do what is necessary to jump the academic hoops to get a piece a paper for street cred and then watch them succeed afterwards in real life, financially. They were always my favorite kind of student. You could see it in their eyes.
Also in entrepreneurship, you need a bit of blind, dumb, luck. I would tell the students on the latter, you’re on your own AND all the best.
It was a fun altruistic career for me and a good segway from industry to retirement.
Just stop it, all of you.
#51 acdel on 05.23.19 at 7:51 pm
Response to Garth.
Background. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/15/science/endangered-species-cites.html – Garth
Ok, fair enough, but we are taking care of our own; perhaps these countries should do the same as us?? It does not take money to make a difference; just an attitude, education from people within willing to teach.
That’s all; just a conversation!
—-
It does take a money to make.people.smarter about environment. And they know what number is and i am surprised that is not that high ether.
Cant remember who exactly sad it bit most likely Microsoft dude, that it takes around 5500 or 6500 usd of gorss or net income for people to start thinking about environment.
Endangered animals world heat map.
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2015/11/which-country-has-the-most-endangered-animals/
I have empathy for the older couple to a certain extent.
“Not so fast. It’s psychology which fuels markets. Not taxes. Not foreigners. Not even macroecononics or mortgage rates.”
So if prices went up 30% in a year or so, why are they in disbelief that their house has declined drastically, based on the fundamentals grounded in reality? Yes they hate the school tax but will soon be below the threshold.
If they have been deferring their taxes as their municipal house taxes have been decreasing isn’t that their own risk. It’s not like they couldn’t move and bank the cash.
Rather complain about the lost of equity that never really existed. Do they have a pool, 10 car garage, 10 bedroom house, worth the actual value of 4 million.
As you stated their lost equity was inevitable.
Look at Australia, virtually no taxes and things are tanking.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/streetwise/article-investment-banks-expected-to-lose-millions-after-cutting-share-price/
They’ve f*&%ed up my company.
Why do they do this?
This sort of thing is like prostitution. Just going for the throat of a company, that was doing just fine, so you can earn quick cash for yourself.
There is nothing wrong with this company.
These people are *&&holes.
This is why I like poison pills.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/international-business/us-business/article-tesla-on-course-to-make-record-deliveries-in-second-quarter-leaked/
Dead cat bounce.
You can actually make about $50 US per share on this idiocy, buying in just before Elon tweets something, and then dumping as soon as he is proved wrong.
His $420.00 tweet was the bomb diggity. Best bump that dodgy fraud of a company has had in a long time.
Expect TSLA to go up over $200 in the next 7 days or so based on Elon’s pronouncements. And then it will go back down again.
This is like buying and selling yellow pages when it was going into receivership.
Dead cat bounce.
AACI appraisers are quite busy, country wide, I am sure. A busy profession when markets are poor, or good.
Climate change happens. Always has always will. Humans will have to adapt just like animals do and will. What get’s me about it is the dumb Canadians that want to feel better about themselves and allow the Feds to impose a carbon tax. This carbon tax will not provide one hoot of a difference. If you really want to make a difference well then you must give up your auto, food, pharmaceuticals, trains, airplanes, boats, clothing, flooring in your homes, wall coverings, any mechanical earthmoving of any kind, computers, cellphones, etc, etc. If not your are an eco phony.
“York region has been hit particularly hard. The average price of a home in Newmarket is down 30 per cent to $725,710. It was over a million dollars before the Fair Housing Plan. Aurora is also down 30 per cent, to $888,387. Richmond Hill will still cost you more than a million dollars on average, but prices have come down 27 per cent and Zoocasa now sees it as a buyers’ market.”
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/parts-of-ontarios-housing-market-are-down-30-two-years-after-new-rules-to-cool-it-down-185910703.html
#13 Slim on 05.23.19 at 5:58 pm
It already looking like it’s going to be another hot, smokey summer in BC. Snowpack was lower than normal. Not good for people with respiratory problems. Might be time to leave this fantasy land and make a move to Alberta.
Ian and Sylvia – Four Strong Winds (CBC TV 1986)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B3m7ckGhnsc
*****************
The biggest forest fire is in Alberta at the moment. BC sent 245 fire fighters to help fight it.
The bush is shut down in the south island area to the public that is. Conditions are dry have been dry since March. Even the last rain day (Sunday) had no impact, things are dry out there. Expect the fires and smoke earlier this year. Big fire also burning in Washington state as they have a drought going on. No one will escape the smoke.
Quote from the husband featured in the article.
“Part of our retirement plan has always been that we would take equity out of the home for us to survive,” he said. “So our entire retirement savings is down 30 per cent.”
To be fair. The word ‘entitled’ seems to fit on the flip side. FFS! they are old enough to know better. What retirement ‘savings’ is he talking about? Did he put 3.5 million of improvements into the house?
There is a lack of critical thinking here. Am I supposed to feel sorry that he is greedy, and slow to sell as his smarter neighbour(s) did or did he just believe in fairy tales.
The market hit the price/debt ceiling and was always destined to correct under its own weight. To think otherwise was pure wishful, wrong logic.
#75 DON on 05.23.19 at 9:52 pm
**should have read increasing not decreasing.
If they have been deferring their taxes as their municipal house taxes have been ***increasing**** isn’t that their own risk. It’s not like they couldn’t move and bank the cash.
“when people think something, it exists”
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/rationaltheoryofexpectations.asp
#24 Vegan baby on 05.23.19 at 6:23 pm
If climate change is real, which I believe in as well, could we talk about how going towards a plant based diet could help/solve this problem.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
If you and like minded people want to be vegans, then more power to you. If your objective is to force this on others that do not want it – well, let us know what you like to do, and I will try to organize the government to take that away from you…
The Toronto Raptors are one win from the NBA finals!!!! Rally behind Canada’s only NBA team!! Sweet!!
It is clever what Trump is doing. He told the fed to cut interest rates many times over the last couple of months but they don’t do it so he makes China face a trade war and he knows this will depress things thus putting pressure on lower interest rates. It works so far and the fed is not needed.
“If we think about climate risks in the same fashion we think about other risks, we should most certainly hedge—and hedge aggressively—by removing fossil fuels from the economy as quickly as possible.” A former climate skeptic makes the case for action:
https://thebulwark.com/what-changed-my-mind-about-climate-change/
#177 Howard on 05.23.19 at 2:05 pm
Not really sure how kindergarten teachers can justify their $100K salaries for playing duck-duck-goose and reading nursery rhymes all day.
All-day kindergarten was a leftist sop to the teachers unions. An (lower-paid) educational assistant or daycare worker can do everything a kindergarten teacher can do.
———
Kindergarten (German) was implemented by the Nazis.
So was Family Allowance.
Educate yourself before posting.
Also, no Kindergarten teacher makes 100K.
Why do posters here hate teachers?
Failed too many exams, I guess.
Most of North Alberta is a high fire risk zone.
Not even summer yet.
Karma for the tar sand devastation?
…these people weren’t speculators, did nothing to pump the worth of their property, and are powerless as it deflates.
But what, exactly, do we owe these people? They bought an asset for 100k used it for 25 years and it is now worth ‘only’ 1.5M instead of 2M. So sad, right?
Fartz,
Comrade Horgan says he will twin the tunnel.
You happy, and vote for him now?
El Joko you tool. You missed the point completely. These folks do not give a toss to the “perceived make up value of their home “ they are not speculators . They contributed time, blood, sweat, effort and sparse resources into making a home for themselves and their family, they want to continue to live in their community where they are comfortable and feel safe.
Just because forces beyond their control went crazy and boosted the “assessed value” over many years does not mean they are using $50.00 bills to start their barbecue..
Normal people who have done everything right, worked their jobs, paid their dues (especially taxes) are suddenly the bad guys and that is wrong. As a long time tax payer on two properties in BC (principal and cottage)
I have witnessed this first hand. WTF nothing is different this year and why do you want another $600.00?
Not looking for sympathy and if you are jealous too bad for you, put down the $5.00 coffee and pick up a second job. Health to all Joel
“The lefties and moisters on this blog will have no sympathy. They’ll fail to understand these people weren’t speculators, did nothing to pump the worth of their property”
You fell for the fake news. They guy you are talking about Ric Pow is major property developer with spec homes under construction in Vancouver right now that he is trying to flog (in addition to his principal residence).
Ric Pow
Principal
Sundance Canyon Homes
November 2011 – Present 7 years 7 months
Vancouver
Owner and partner in the company. All business aspects including corporate administration, land acquisition, site planning, multi-family home design, procurement, construction, sales and marketing.
https://ca.linkedin.com/in/ricpow
http://www.sundancecanyon.ca/property/3rd-avenue/
So what? – Garth
They want to Tax What!
#71 Dutchy on 05.23.19 at 9:44 pm
Re; Climate change.
The major threat to our planet, in my opinion, is the number of (irresponsible) species called “Homo Sapiens”
Another billion every 10 years or so now.
****************************
Well we know what activity needs to be taxed next then. We will tell all the guys it was your idea.
Climate Change. Instead of endless debates, lets just solve the problem! And who do you turn to when a problem needs to be solved? A politician? A celebrity? A civil servant?
Of course not. Those don’t solve anything. You turn to an engineer of course, whose job *is* to solve problems. Give them the parameters and they will do it if at all possible.
The parameters. Lets assume the worst case – call it the AOC scenario. There are 12 years to reduce CO2 emissions by humans 90% below what they are at currently, or the earth is DOOOMED! That is it. Go!!
– First the engineer does some quick math and rapidly determines that renewables (wind, solar) can’t even come close to replacing fossil fuel energy (density, area required, distributed transmission needed, time to build them all, intermittent, backup is fossil fuel that that is a no no, etc).
– Engineer realizes that nuclear is the only scalable non-CO2 emitting solution for our current civilization and population, but both research and construction have been so thwarted by the same environmentalists on the AGW side that it would take more than 12 years to get them even close to being ready, and greens would resist at every step. Not viable.
– Only one solution remains -> eliminate the source of the problem of CO2 emissions -> humans. Extreme human depopulation is required to meet the parameters.
– This is morally justifiable, because in a world without fossil fuel energy (maybe a smattering of renewables), the earth will support perhaps 1 billion people (population near the start of 20th century). No electric tractors, no fertilizers, little food distribution, back to wood heat in many cases. So, the vast majority of the population would die anyways, might as well make this part of the solution.
– First, morally, is to ask for volunteers. Surely those who most believe in the dangers of this, and who don’t really seem to like “people”, would want to be leaders. Why not. They are the ardent believers. But somehow, I don’t think we will get many…
– So second would be those less likely to survive. You know how this goes, history books and all. No need to go any further.
– Ok, now it is time for the big cull. How to do it “efficiently” (we are engineers, after all)? And there is a 12 year timeframe, and time is running out! The answer is of course to use something that already exists. Nuclear weapons. Continuing with efficiency, and looking at areas that won’t survive well without as much fossil fuel power and limits of renewables, the targets should be large cities. Most people depopulated with fewest uses.
– An added benefit is that the use of such nuclear weapons will also throw significant ash into the atmosphere and quickly cool the planet.
===> PROBLEM SOLVED. CO2 emissions reduced by 90% in under the 12 year timeframe. The planet is even cooler than today (nuclear winter will do that). A sustainable population without fossil fuels is attained. The earth is saved!!
Garth – you have me convinced! So, who is with me to band all the engineers together and solve this problem once and for all!!
#39 Vipin on 05.23.19 at 7:18 pm
Garth, we decided to buy a place in Vancouver. For the inspection, I tried calling 3 inspector and all of them were fully booked for the next 4 day. Yes, housing market is down, but things are not as bad as you make it sound. Good places are seeing good footfalls during open houses and still selling at ~1*Assessment price.
————–
Garth,
Why do you let this Realtor advertise for free?
Appraiser here in the GTA doing just fine. I’ll send you my NOA the last few years and when it’s ready I’ll send you 2019 too. They will all show about the same business once and expenses. Truth is when things were red hot we were turning a lot of business away and today it’s more normal. If you are an appraiser, mortgage broker or realtor who has only experienced success due to the market conditions then you are in the wrong line of business.
#39 Vipin on 05.23.19 at 7:18 pm
House inspectors being busy is actually a sign of a slow market. When the market was hot, buyers were coming in with no subjects. Now that the market is slower, buyers can make their offers subject to financing, inspection and even the sale of another property.
#79 Victor V on 05.23.19 at 10:06 pm
“York region has been hit particularly hard. The average price of a home in Newmarket is down 30 per cent to $725,710. It was over a million dollars before the Fair Housing Plan. Aurora is also down 30 per cent, to $888,387. Richmond Hill will still cost you more than a million dollars on average, but prices have come down 27 per cent and Zoocasa now sees it as a buyers’ market.”
————————————————-
Lmao over $1 million Richmond Hill and nearly $900,000 for boonie-land Aurora. Only mentally deficient Canadians could see this as a “buyer’s market”. Bahahahahahahaha!!!
“The silent spring. It was shocking when environmentalists first pointed out the growing absence of song birds. (We’ll save the climate change debate for another day. It’s real, by the way.)”
” In short, when people think something, it exists.”
Interesting to juxtapose these 2 thoughts.
Anyway I am not a denier, I’ve seen the graphs with CO2 levels and average temperatures and they do seem correlated. However I think all the models are bunk, most of them forecast some imminent inflection point at witch the impact of CO2 goes exponential instead of linear as it has been. And when was the last time a model of any sort has been accurate 80 years into the future? That smells like bull crap. The only thing you can forecast 80 years into the future is the date. All we can say for sure is that we’ve put an extra 130 ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere and the temperature seems to have risen about 0.8 degrees Celsius since 1880. Of course the rate at which we are dumping CO2 into the atmosphere has gone way up, so the rate the temperature increases should go up as well, it stands to reason.
And none of them models consider the fact that fossil fuels are limited and we are running out (not quickly mind you, no need for alarm, but we are already drilling in the source rock (shale oil & gas) and once that runs out there are no more reserves to add.) England, Germany, and China have all reached peak coal, peak conventional oil is behind us world-wide, peak conventional natural gas is behind us in many regions including Alberta, so we are increasingly on to the more difficult to extract and therefore more expensive stuff.
Gail Tverberg does a good job explaining where we are in the fossil fuel cycle and what the possible economic impacts are at her website: https://ourfiniteworld.com/
We’ve got quite a few songbirds hanging around our bird feeder, but they did come back late this spring. Mind you so did spring. But I don’t have the ability to do robust bird counts so instead I have been observing the amount of bug splats I get on the windshield when I drive at highway speeds. It is way down. I remember not that long ago a drive on the highway meant you had to squeegee the bugs off the windshield every time you stopped for gas. Last summer I don’t think I did once except for dirt. So either the bugs have evolved better eyesight and can see the cars better or their numbers are down. But I don’t suspect the 0.8 degree increase in temperature to be the culprit, I suspect pesticides. If you go to an area that doesn’t have agriculture like a forest or large provincial park, there are still lots of bugs. And birds. We can’t just keep spraying industrial strength pesticides on untold acres of land every year and expect that bugs won’t die. And I doubt that stuff just goes away, it gets washed into the waterways and probably persists for years.
That said, if I get a wasp nest too near my people it gets sprayed. They keep inviting themselves to dinner and harassing the guests.
Lots of things can affect animal counts besides the 0.8 degree rise in temperatures. For example fishing anywhere within 2 hours of a major city is pretty much useless unless it’s a catch and release waterway. But it wasn’t like that when I was a kid. All you had to do was toss a maggot in the water and you’d catch something, usually a whitefish but something. So it always bemuses me when I go into a Bass Pro and see the racks of fishing rods. I personally probably have 6 or 7 myself. I estimate there are approximately 20 fishing rods in Calgary for every eating size fish there is within 2 hours of the city. The pike are still doing well but that’s because nobody wants to eat a pike. But even they need size and catch limits or the French will hunt them to extinction. The French will eat anything. Snails even. The liberal application of butter is the secret to French cooking. Even a snail tastes pretty ok when boiled in butter.
It’s so laughable hearing the Vancouver people who’s home value has gone from $500k to $3 million and now are bitching that it’s “dropped” to $2 million. ZERO SYMPATHY. I hope it drops back to 500k or lower.
They weren’t complaining riding the wave up. Don’t complain about it dropping now.
RE: You can probably rule out any more interest rate cuts, given the latest jobs numbers.
—————————————————————————-
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/get-ready-for-rate-cuts-david-rosenberg-predicts~1690237?fbclid=IwAR18xlM44afFIS5DVwMwWXJGIl1PbnRq-4Nh1X1UJe7Fveh0KGN8_HDjXxI
Rosie never quits. Someday will be correct. – Garth
Well, seeing as the home ownership rate in Vancouver is 63.7%, I doubt that “there are many fewer dinged owners than envious renters.”
“Climate change is like that. Do some research, look into it, and you are like “this is total bunk, why do people believe this? What a load of hooey. This is garbage. They are making this up”.
Present your research to those who study such things. Please report back.
Nice to see Frenchy is back.
Grab some popcorn the shit show is about to begin.
Deep State is going down.
The EU elections. Deplorables will take control.
T2 is burnt sour dugh toast.
Never under estimate Nictonies, not all of us are bad.
Grath too bad you could not get past chapter 1. You would by now figure out who Shlong Zumanga is.
Something tells me you already knew. Your pretty sharp for a dude who wears cowboy boots.
Trade them in for flip flops. It’s scary at first but it’s like religious experiance.
#WWG1WGA
“The silent spring. It was shocking when environmentalists first pointed out the growing absence of song birds.”
The song birds in my backyard must not have gotten the message. I hear them lour and clear every morning….
>> #99 Huh? on 05.24.19 at 12:57 am
#79 Victor V on 05.23.19 at 10:06 pm
“York region has been hit particularly hard. The average price of a home in Newmarket is down 30 per cent to $725,710. It was over a million dollars before the Fair Housing Plan. Aurora is also down 30 per cent, to $888,387. Richmond Hill will still cost you more than a million dollars on average, but prices have come down 27 per cent and Zoocasa now sees it as a buyers’ market.”
————————————————-
Lmao over $1 million Richmond Hill and nearly $900,000 for boonie-land Aurora. Only mentally deficient Canadians could see this as a “buyer’s market”. Bahahahahahahaha!!!>>
Spoken like a true ignoramous. Aurora is not “boonie-land”. It’s actually quite affluent and nice.
Cities in York Region are consistently in the top rankings for best places to live in Canada. The prices shot up way too high in 2017, that is for sure, but it’s stabilized.
I guess I must have gotten “lucky” because I sold my York region home for $150K more than I bought in 2016.
Animal spirits. Hmmmm.
I’d say I feel rather bearish about most markets ,institutions and even people…. Getting into the juicy details would likely get me banned again. Still,I expect we will see a rerun of the 14th to 19th century period if not the onset of a major glaciation plus we will see some serious problems with the debt markets and everything connected to it. Don’t worry the world will not turn into another Venus anytime soon.
I think the scale of political organization will downsize and the legal and political regimes that most people know will not stand the test of time. Peoples view of history will eventually change also. The truth will be discovered by more people when the ideas that were taken as fact if not orthodoxy are found to be false or the big liars simply die out or disgrace themselves. Call it the big reality check and its triggers will be the debt and ice age cycles.
Spring hasn’t really come to the GTA until very recently. That’s probably why there were no birds. It has felt like November.
There are also pictures of my parents wedding from the late 60’s in early May and they are wearing T-shirts. This year, some 50 years later, I have not worn a T-shirt yet.
Anecdotal sure, but so is “I don’t hear any birds this year”.
#88 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.23.19 at 11:23 pm
“Why do posters here hate teachers?
Failed too many exams, I guess.”
-That’s easy. Because they are losers. Losers blame others for their failures. The losers of the private sector will blame the public sector for all their failures. Basic psychology.
MF
#99 Huh? on 05.24.19 at 12:57 am
#79 Victor V on 05.23.19 at 10:06 pm
“York region has been hit particularly hard. The average price of a home in Newmarket is down 30 per cent to $725,710. It was over a million dollars before the Fair Housing Plan. Aurora is also down 30 per cent, to $888,387. Richmond Hill will still cost you more than a million dollars on average, but prices have come down 27 per cent and Zoocasa now sees it as a buyers’ market.”
————————————————-
Lmao over $1 million Richmond Hill and nearly $900,000 for boonie-land Aurora. Only mentally deficient Canadians could see this as a “buyers market” Bawahaha
—————
So easy to spot a post from those with lower OQ who lack confidence in their own assertions . Exclamation marks , shouting through keyboards , bawawa laughter.
Although you still require well over a million dollars for anything livable , you have about a year or so to buy along the Yonge corridor between Hwy7 and major Mackenzie drive before home prices make new all time highs into 2021 and beyond
I’m glad to hear that climate is once again up for debate. Two years ago , pre Trump, when the climate crazies were still gorging on the billions of Obama Climate Gren Carpet Baggers Propaganda, there was no possible debate, deniers who refused the false God we’re going to be executed. Two years ago, climate was “settled. Now it appears even the fanatics want to negotiate to keep from losing lost ground, good luck. Didn’t anyone else wonder who was paying for the steam roller press? Aren’t the Green Carpet Baggers the same guys who made a killing in oil in a past generation? Aren’t the same bunch of capitalists, Rockefellers etc the same guys who are trying to corner the green market? Isn’t mass windmill and solar panel construction killing birds by the millions and sucking off money that should be going to the poor? You fool. No, the Earth isn’t going to end in twelve years, but American dollars have paid teachers unions to brainwash children all the same. Go back a generation and look at the tactics the carpet baggers used to corner the alcohol market. Where does Al Gore’s money come from? Who pays Suzuki?
Australian housing is tanking, reason, over building. Toronto, next.
UK descending into chaos.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-48395905
This will get ugly and dangerous very fast.
PREPARE
@#91 Ponies Prance
“Fartz,
Comrade Horgan says he will twin the tunnel.
You happy, and vote for him now?”
+++++
I voted for him last time because i couldnt stand the smell of BC Liberal corruption.
And it take a lot for me to offended by smell.
Nah, the “twinning of the tunnel” is a joke.
They dont need 4 more lanes each way.
They need 8 more lanes each way.
The 2 lanes each way now is a parking lot.
I drive it on a regular basis and by 7am Mon to Fri. there is a mile of parked semis waiting to head south on Hwy 99
A city with 3 million people bottlenecked into a 50 year old 4 lane tunnel and they want to add 4 more lanes….give me a break.
A joke.
Doesnt matter how many lanes they put in…Traffic slows for tunnels….for reasons only known to the idiots that slow down.
We live in an earthquake zone.
I personally wouldnt want to be stopped, in a tunnel, waiting for the shaking to stop.
Leave the tunnel for semis.
Build a 12 lane bridge for gas spewing F-350’s traffic and toll it.
#5 NotLegalAdvice on 05.23.19 at 5:30 pm
Having said that, the longer you wait, the cheaper things will get. When everyone calls you a moron – do it. – G.T.
_______________________________________
Does anyone think we will see prices in the GTA hit 2014 levels? Please back it up with statistics or historical charts.
Thanks! :D
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If we look at the ’89 peak as a proxy, we’ll get close. From 89 to 96 the yearly average dropped by 28%. Apply that to the 2018 peak of 822k and we get 595k, which is just a bit above ’14 average of 566k.
Now, ’89 had support from yields collapsing. 5Y was 11ish in ’90, dropped to a 5 handle in ’96. We won’t have that help now. I think 2012/13 prices are likely where we settle. But might take 5 years to get there.
If in the next 2 years I find a place that ticks all the boxes, I’ll be a buyer, with the expectation that I need to be there for a decade, and will tie up a bunch of dead money for that time period.
SARS and politically exposed peopole
what bank would lend to someone with bankruptcy track record –was there third party loans ?
==============
…”The German banking supervisory authority called BaFin will certainly pick this up. Guess what, money laundering is a crime in Germany, too, also for foreign individuals and organizations, and the time bar for crimes under sec. 261 of the German criminal code is five years. So, if this occurred in or around 2016, Trump and Kushner are now in the crosshairs of yet another investigation. The Bafin is a very stubborn and pernickety German authority not known to be stoppable by external pressure.
“After Mr. Trump became president, transactions involving him and his companies were reviewed by an anti-financial crime team at the bank called the Special Investigations Unit. That team, based in Jacksonville, produced multiple suspicious activity reports involving different entities that Mr. Trump owned or controlled, according to three former Deutsche Bank employees who saw the reports in an internal computer system.” “Deutsche Bank ultimately chose not to file those suspicious activity reports with the Treasury Department, either, according to three former employees. They said it was unusual for the bank to reject a series of reports involving the same high-profile client.” Why did Trump have special treatment at Deutsche? And why did he sue Congress from their subpoena of his transactions with them? Congress has to do their duty of oversight in what looks like a coverup of money laundering.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/19/business/deutsche-bank-trump-kushner.html?ref=cta&nl=top-stories
=========
atlantic (ghost?)city
SARS – fined 10m reported 2015–
https://www.reuters.com/article/trump-ent-trumptajmahal-moneylaundering-idUSL1N0VL2L120150211
When Donald Trump opened the towering Trump Taj Mahal Casino in Atlantic City in March 1990, he declared it “the eighth wonder of the world” and joined in the celebrations at a launch ceremony filled with portly actors dressed as genies brandishing tacky golden lamps. Even though it was purchased with almost $700m worth of junk bonds – which meant the Taj had to come up with $94m a year just to pay off its debts, and $1m a day to be profitable – Trump insisted the casino would make Atlantic City great again, returning the area to its prohibition-era glory days.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/lifestyle/1990/03/25/donald-trumps-big-bet/0c149273-3752-4f6f-96bf-432457039eb7/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.8790394d9fa1
@#89 Platypus platitudes
“Most of North Alberta is a high fire risk zone.
Not even summer yet.
Karma for the tar sand devastation?
*****
Ya might want to review “North America” on a map.
Another fire season begins in the north of Canada while the US mid west suffers through massive rainfall and flooding and tornados.
Mexico hasnt been on the weather radar as of late so I’m assuming they are experiencing a “normal” weather season.
All while the first named tropical storm forms in the Atlantic ocean 2 weeks before Hurricane season begins…..
MF
Quick lesson if you have ears to hear. When you resort to name calling you have lost the battle.
The reason Teachers are judged harshly in the real world at least in Canada is they act like they were hand picked by GOD and are above reproach. Rank hypocrisy on full display.
“For the children” take a pay cut.
#114 Tater on 05.24.19 at 8:21 am
If we look at the ’89 peak as a proxy, we’ll get close. From 89 to 96 the yearly average dropped by 28%. Apply that to the 2018 peak of 822k and we get 595k, which is just a bit above ’14 average of 566k.
Now, ’89 had support from yields collapsing. 5Y was 11ish in ’90, dropped to a 5 handle in ’96. We won’t have that help now. I think 2012/13 prices are likely where we settle. But might take 5 years to get there.
If in the next 2 years I find a place that ticks all the boxes, I’ll be a buyer, with the expectation that I need to be there for a decade, and will tie up a bunch of dead money for that time period.
______________________________________
I have to agree with you. Eventually as this market continues to drop year/year, figuring out the best time to buy would be difficult. As Garth points out several times, no one wants to catch a falling knife, but this may have to happen. When I know I can afford to buy a house without dumping all my savings into it and carrying a mortgage for life, I’ll get my signing pen out.
Right now my significant other and I are focusing on saving a 20 percent down payment, without having to take money out of TFSA. In an ideal world, I will keep that TFSA maxed out while still being able to pay 20% down. Working towards this….not quite yet the right time.
The message is the same.
Buy a house if you can afford it, for the purpose of living in it, not as a financial investment or a retirement plan.
That’s what normal people did, in relatively modern times in North America, for the last, say, 100 odd years.
You finished schooling (of some sort – vocational, secondary, or even elementary in those days), went to work, got married, had kids, saved a few bucks, then bought a house to raise those kids in and take care of the family. Most likely the wife stayed home to tend to the children and the household.
These people did not enter “the housing market”.
They did not have visions of their homes one day being worth many multiples of what they originally paid for it.
The inflationary pressure that ensued decades later due to various economic and world events, and increased the cost of everything exponentially, swept house prices right along with it.
The “housing market” was born, and the shift in thinking (that one buys a house as a financial asset that is guaranteed to appreciate endlessly) took hold among the financially ignorant masses.
So, today, the average dolt thinks the only way to save for the future is to take out a mortgage and buy a house.
Well, I’m pretty sure that this thinking will disappear by the time the next generation rolls around. Then, a house will go back to being just a house.
The insane price appreciation seen in houses was primarily a 20th century phenomenon. It will evaporate some time in the early 21st century. Likely within the next 15 years.
As long as inflation stays in check for the long term, house prices will recede, then stabilize.
Then again, if there is some unpredictable economic event that occurs that somehow skyrockets inflation, then all bets are off. That’s just a wild bet that some people may take.
If things stay as they are, however, house prices will not increase in isolation while salaries, wages, and the cost of most other things stay relatively flat.
Historians and sociology students will look back on the housing market of the 20th and early 21st centuries, and recognize it as an economic aberration.
#99 Huh? on 05.24.19 at 12:57 am
Lmao over $1 million Richmond Hill and nearly $900,000 for boonie-land Aurora. Only mentally deficient Canadians could see this as a “buyer’s market”. Bahahahahahahaha!!!
____
Yep, gallons of Kool-Aid need drinking before any Nimrod would think these prices represent some kind of value in a frozen city where the median household income is only 78K.
Domestic youths leaving, population supported 110% by immigration (new immigrants median income is under 30K), all kinds of young families exiting.
Oh yeah, LOADS of rich folks coming down the pipe to support SFD prices in the GTA lol!
Eventually they’ll probably realize it was never more than a one and done, flash in the pan (hopefully after they sold out).
The repentant will sell, the indoctrinated will keep preaching from the gospel according to Toronto RE. The song remains the same.
@#31 A guy in Vancouver
“They would stop and disgorge groups of people looking to buy homes in our sleepy little village, Tsawwassen,”
++++
ah yes Tsawwassen.
Once dubbed “Little Rhodesia” because it was the last white bastion south of the Fraser……
May Quits. Globalists gate keepers going down one by one. You watching T2
Post nationalist are doomed.
I’ll be celibating in Vagas this week end.
My question is…
How will a substantial pull back in real estate prices and the corresponding debt payment issues that are likely to arise from this pullback affect your “balanced investment portfolio”?
Marginally. – Garth
#95 PastThePeak on 05.23.19 at 11:45 pm
Garth – you have me convinced! So, who is with me to band all the engineers together and solve this problem once and for all!!
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Bah! No need for engineers. Let natural selection do its thing. Less moral arguments about a person/class of people playing God. Also, people do a pretty good job of killing each other over resources so that acts as the accelerant to the fire that “has always been burning as the world was turning”.
#95 PastThePeak on 05.23.19 at 11:45 pm
BRILLIANT! I salute you, Sir! Only, you may have missed a step. Three of them, actually – and they occur right at the beginning of the programme.
Do you remember that nonsense work assignment we were all given in Grade 4? An entire sheet of questions, the first of which was “Read this all the way through before continuing…” – the second-last was “ignore all the instructions on this page but the first, and the last two”, the last was “sign at the top and you’re finished!” My lot had it even worse – we were told “You have two minutes to finish this, now get cracking!”
Well, the Engineer’s first assignment, since there’s a big block of ‘scientists’ on each side of the debate and everybody is contradicting everybody else, should be “Use all that good thinking-stuff you learned in Engineer school and study the issue.” I mean, why not? – he’ll spend at least a year studying, not have to do any engineering, and still get paid!
Upon finishing his { – her – } studies,(s)he’ll have learned:
1) the climate is fiendishly complex, and like all chaotic systems, is appallingly susceptible to even minor changes in initial conditions – I mean, a butterfly flapping its wings in Tokyo can change the weather in New York, right? And yes, it can and does; that’s how complex the matter is – and those of you who refuse to believe me on that, prove me wrong!
2) We are the “human” “race”:
a. We’re horribly susceptible to the Law of Unintended Consequences;
b. Everything a government does to improve a situation, makes it worse; and
c. At least half the players are unabashedly lying, whether to save face, cover their @$$, feather their nest or attract some gullible groupies to pimp-up their pathetic little egos, or (too often) all four – and almost all who aren’t doing this deliberately, are still just as mistaken on the subject as if they were.
As a result of his year’s sabbatical, inevitably, 3) our Engineer tenders his resignation and has nothing more to do with the whole infernal mess, going-on to some other field of endeavour where he can actually engineer a working solution that makes somebody happy.
The end.
Hire another Engineer, lather, rinse, repeat!
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2019/05/23/the-rich-world-is-enjoying-an-unprecedented-jobs-boom
ps: Watch out for the central banker’s trigger finger!!!
For those of you denying songbird decline based on your backyard feeders, if you really paid attention, you’d notice that some species you used to see years ago are no longer there. Or maybe you haven’t been living in the same location long enough to notice the decline. (Most of us haven’t.)
The mornings in May/June are eerily quiet at my parents in rural MB now too, and they’ve been in the same spot since I was born. Sure, you’ll hear maybe 15 or 20 birds singing, and to someone who didn’t know better, they’d think there were a lot. But that’s NOTHING like the wall of sound we used to enjoy in the spring back in the 70s and 80s.
Here in Ottawa, I hear a few cardinals, a few robins, a few song sparrows in the morning. No warblers, no vireos, no orioles, no swallows. I have a nice pair of song sparrows nesting in the cedar hedge, and I’m chasing cats out of my yard nearly every day to protect their nest.
Don’t bother telling the environmentalists though. They’re the ones you might normally expect to care about such things. But no, they’ve found religion now; they’re so obsessed with climate change that they can’t be bothered with little problems like declining migratory songbird populations. If they do, they just tie it back to their obsession with climate. Carbon credits, carbon offsets, and renewable energy are what the trendy enviro-hipsters are talking about now.
Climate change may or may not be a serious problem – I have yet to make up my mind. But climate change has NOTHING to do with the decline of migratory songbirds. Habitat destruction in their tropical wintering grounds (where they spend most of their time) and domestic cats in their nesting regions are probably the two biggest issues. Increased hazards along their migratory routes, habitat destruction in their nesting grounds, and window collisions are also factors.
If Rachel Carson were around today, she’s have to write another books called Silent Greens, because the green movement is utterly silent on wildlife conservation these days. The exception is if said wildlife serves as a useful poster child for climate change (e.g. skinny polar bears make for good ad copy, caribou are useful for opposing pipelines). Take a look at the World Wildlife Fund or Canadian Wildlife Federation websites – all about climate change, little about habitat preservation. Environment Canada actually changed its name to Environment and Climate Change Canada. I kid you not – go look it up. The birds are on their own.
#107 Captain Uppa on 05.24.19 at 6:28 am
Spoken like a true ignoramous. Aurora is not “boonie-land”. It’s actually quite affluent and nice.
Cities in York Region are consistently in the top rankings for best places to live in Canada.
_____
It only took like 1 minute for me to determine that York region cities are definitely NOT consistently in the top rankings for best places to live in Canada.
Aurora was like #36 on the list for 2018.
#106 Boomer Bill on 05.24.19 at 5:35 am
“The silent spring. It was shocking when environmentalists first pointed out the growing absence of song birds.”
The song birds in my backyard must not have gotten the message. I hear them lour and clear every morning….
____
Same here. Right off the bat at dawn, and all day long. Then Frogs and Coyotes for the night shift. Same as ever.
Hopefully the environmentalists will be right about the starling population though…
#97 GTAppraiser on 05.24.19 at 12:22 am
Appraiser here in the GTA doing just fine. I’ll send you my NOA the last few years and when it’s ready I’ll send you 2019 too. They will all show about the same business once and expenses. Truth is when things were red hot we were turning a lot of business away and today it’s more normal. If you are an appraiser, mortgage broker or realtor who has only experienced success due to the market conditions then you are in the wrong line of business.
Personal anecdote – a relative is a realtor in Toronto, been there for several years – he’s doing just fine too.
#100 Nonplused on 05.24.19 at 1:06 am
… For example fishing anywhere within 2 hours of a major city is pretty much useless unless it’s a catch and release waterway. But it wasn’t like that when I was a kid. All you had to do was toss a maggot in the water and you’d catch something, usually a whitefish but something. So it always bemuses me when I go into a Bass Pro and see the racks of fishing rods. I personally probably have 6 or 7 myself. I estimate there are approximately 20 fishing rods in Calgary for every eating size fish there is within 2 hours of the city. The pike are still doing well but that’s because nobody wants to eat a pike. But even they need size and catch limits or the French will hunt them to extinction.
___
Around here, fishing is huge – summer and winter. No one keeps much these days, they pretty much all get tossed back in the water. The small city I work in has a major fishing derby every year that attracts thousands. The fish are probably getting bigger every year – and yes, especially the Northerns.
I haven’t brought a fish home since the 80’s – and it was a 10 lb Bowfin which I had never caught before, nor since. Just to show my Dad.
Yes, the climate changes.
If it did not then Canada would be under hundreds of meters of glacial ice.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Last_Glacial_Maximum
Without it Canada and much of the world would be a massive skating rink. Ain’t climate change great!
Odd how we had all this climate change in the past, without man’s impact or any relationship to C02 levels.
Gee, could it be that C02 levels have little correlation with climate change?
Could it be that there are many other factors that affect climate?
Why is it that current climate change models, based exclusively on C02 levels, and which are used to project the ‘global cataclysm in 12 years’ (thanks AOC- good to know my portfolio only needs to last for 12 years rather than planning for 30), cannot be used retroactively to predict the climate changes that we know have occurred in the past.
I mean, oddly enough, scientific truths that we know today, (gravity, relativity, etc) can easily be seen to apply today, as well as can be applied in the past.
Yet, with all of the scientific knowledge we have about climatic changes in the recent past (with multiple glacial periods rises and falls in sea level etc.) applying the current climate change models to try to predict past periods of climate change, fails miserably.
So, if the climate models are unable to accurately describe the past, why are they relied upon to reliably predict the future?
Well, I guess it’s because the other proven scientific models and principles such as gravity or natural selection or one of the thousands of other scientific principles described by hypothesis, testing and the scientific method, must not have applied in the past either.
Huh, who knew?
I read this blog up until you said climate change is real – please elaborate. Obviously its real but it has nothing to do with human actions. Climate has been changing for billions of years on this planet. Its natural. Let it happen.
What if, we reduce C02 emissions ans then boom! cold spell occurs on earth and we lose many people to global “cooling”
Sun is also currently in a hot cycle and expected to cool. Why are we trying to fudge with our C02 emissions?
#175 Y. Knott on 05.23.19 at 1:56 pm
#166 IHCTD9 on 05.17.19 at 10:40 am
I was thinking an old school 1 Ton 4 door 4×4 long box with a 6V-71 Detroit swap (to keep the mosquitoes away!) would be a very reliable and practical vehicle.
I think it was King of Obsolete where I got this; truck drivers said of the Detroit Diesels that if you were assigned one to for the day, the thing to do as you climbed into your truck in the morning was to slam your hand in the truck door with all your might – because nothing worse would happen to you that day.
___
I won’t argue with what the King says, since he owns the “screaming Ford” (which I think has straight pipes!!).
I think some of those drivers might have then slammed their head in the door too. The ringing in their ears may have been preferable to the siren song of the 6V-71 after 8 hours or so :).
#122 Smoking Man on 05.24.19 at 9:24 am
I’ll be celibating in Vagas…
___
Wrong city for that!
#127 Alistair McLaughlin on 05.24.19 at 10:01 am
____
I hear you on the swallows – few around my place compared to when I moved in (2001). Of course, I knocked down my barn which cliff swallows where using to build their nests (under the eaves at the top). That barn was also full of nesting barn swallows too. So that seems to be the reason why I don’t see too many of them.
About 15 years ago a couple of old guys stopped in wanting to look at my barn. They had seen a bunch of cliff swallows flying around which they said were rare, and they thought they might be nesting in my barn. I said you’re right, they are. Turns out these guys volunteered for some kind of bird group, and wanted to put my place in some kind of bird atlas as a known nesting site for cliff swallows – of which they had none in their territory.
These two dudes told me the slow steady removal of 100+ old farm infrastructure like barns and drive sheds were decimating the cliff swallow populations in southern Ontario. I believe ’em, I still have the drive shed, and the few barn swallows still around follow a torturous route to get in there – but it is indeed a very safe nesting place 100% unreachable by cats and coons.
#107 Captain Uppa on 05.24.19 at 6:28 am
>> #99 Huh? on 05.24.19 at 12:57 am
#79 Victor V on 05.23.19 at 10:06 pm
“York region has been hit particularly hard. The average price of a home in Newmarket is down 30 per cent to $725,710. It was over a million dollars before the Fair Housing Plan. Aurora is also down 30 per cent, to $888,387. Richmond Hill will still cost you more than a million dollars on average, but prices have come down 27 per cent and Zoocasa now sees it as a buyers’ market.”
————————————————-
Lmao over $1 million Richmond Hill and nearly $900,000 for boonie-land Aurora. Only mentally deficient Canadians could see this as a “buyer’s market”. Bahahahahahahaha!!!>>
Spoken like a true ignoramous. Aurora is not “boonie-land”. It’s actually quite affluent and nice.
Cities in York Region are consistently in the top rankings for best places to live in Canada. The prices shot up way too high in 2017, that is for sure, but it’s stabilized.
I guess I must have gotten “lucky” because I sold my York region home for $150K more than I bought in 2016.
—————————————-
Look everyone it’s Captain Uppa who cheerleads perverse pricing in completely insignificant places and is immediately triggered every single time someone has something accurate and derogatory to say about Toronto and it’s wasteland suburbs. seriously get a life dude.
Take a good hard look in the mirror if you want to look at it the true definition of ignoramus.
What is killing the birds? A quick search for bird deaths lists the following (in order) as the primary causes of deaths [study from 2014]:
– Domesticated cats (2.4B)
– Building collisions (500M)
– Car collisions (200M)
– distant 4th – windmills (200K)
I am sure since then that someone in the IPCC is working to finger climate change as the main culprit.
In the mean time it looks like cats and real estate (especially those glass covered high rises) are to blame.
#128 IHCTD9 on 05.24.19 at 10:10 am
#107 Captain Uppa on 05.24.19 at 6:28 am
Spoken like a true ignoramous. Aurora is not “boonie-land”. It’s actually quite affluent and nice.
Cities in York Region are consistently in the top rankings for best places to live in Canada.
_____
It only took like 1 minute for me to determine that York region cities are definitely NOT consistently in the top rankings for best places to live in Canada.
Aurora was like #36 on the list for 2018
——————————————-
Oh pay no attention to Captain Uppa lmao, always quick to get triggered and jump on the keyboard as the defender of a frozen overpriced hellhole without doing any research.
We need to rename him Captain STFUppa.
#132 AB Boxster on 05.24.19 at 11:08 am
Well, I guess it’s because the other proven scientific models and principles such as gravity or natural selection or one of the thousands of other scientific principles described by hypothesis, testing and the scientific method, must not have applied in the past either.
—————–
Why use proven things like the scientific method to explain things when you can just rely on Occam’s razor and sound just as ‘smart” when talking about correlation and causation?
Wasn’t it Doug (Garth’s weekend post dude) use Occam’s razor to justify his belief in climate change?
Occam’s razor in my opinion is the lazy man’s scientific method.
Lol, all the dodos coming out of the woodwork to disagree with Garth about climate change. Classic.
It is real. And I don’t even have to defend that statement. But I will share this little tidbit – When I was 8 years old, I was building snow forts on my parents’ lawn. The snow piles were taller than I was, at 4 or 5 feet tall. That was over 30 years ago. A lot has changed. No more colossal snow dumps, two dozen times a winter season. We barely get any snow now, and when we do, we act like it’s the end of the world, hah. I guess humans have a short memory.
Climate change -especially in Europe – is now increasingly used by the left to politicize high school-aged population, with the goal of dropping voting age, securing more votes and vocal group of left-wing activists.
@AB Boxter
“if the climate models are unable to accurately describe the past, why are they relied upon to reliably predict the future?”
Ok. I’ll bite. That’s a reasonable question.
Climate science is extremely complex, with lots of unknowns and lots of variables. Nobody really understands the “mechanisms”.
Kind of like cancer. No-one could have predicted that my aunt Phyllis would get cancer (but she did). If you run a statistical model backwards, you still couldn’t have predicted it. The models don’t work that way.
Not everyone who is at risk will get cancer, but scientists can predict with some accuracy the percentage of a population that will likely get cancer under certain conditions.
Of course, it helps to have millions of people to experiment on. We only have one planet. That increases the uncertainty, and also the risk.
I’m not a climate scientist. Neither (I assume) are you. So neither of us is honestly qualified to judge the underlying assumptions and statistical models that scientists use.
If 9 out of 10 dentists tell you that you need a root canal, they might just be talking their book, but it’s not really rational to go with the minority opinion.
Peace, out.
CMHC head defends the stress test against “reckless myopia”.
(Bet you’re surprised I read Advisor’s Edge).
https://www.advisor.ca/news/economic/cmhc-head-defends-stress-test-against-reckless-myopia/?utm_source=EmailMarketing&utm_medium=email&utm_content=advisor&utm_campaign=AM_Bulletin&oft_id=59294195&oft_k=84ichMJR&oft_lk=yzoEBw&oft_d=636943035243300000&fpid=614989&m32_fp_id=Brz2a7&ctx=newsletter&m32_fp_ctx=DI_MASTER_Relational
anything to win? is this going to be happening with our elections -doctored videos?
A manipulated video of Speaker Nancy Pelosi that makes it seem as if she is slurring her words has spread across social media. Above, we compared it with the original video of her remarks on May 22.
The New York Times
…slowed down to make her speech appear continually garbled. The video has been viewed millions of times on Facebook and was amplified by the president’s personal lawyer, Rudolph W. Giuliani, who shared the video Thursday night on Twitter. “What is wrong with Nancy Pelosi?” Mr. Giuliani said in a tweet that has since been deleted. “Her speech pattern is bizarre.”
Mr. Trump tweeted a separate video of Ms. Pelosi, from Fox Business, which spliced together moments from a 20-minute news conference to emphasize points where she had stumbled on her words. “PELOSI STAMMERS THROUGH NEWS CONFERENCE,” the president tweeted.
#132 AB Boxster on 05.24.19 at 11:08 am
Odd how we had all this climate change in the past, without man’s impact or any relationship to C02 levels.
Gee, could it be that C02 levels have little correlation with climate change?
– – – – – – – – – – –
Do you recall the meteorite that slammed into earth several millions of years ago? The one that killed many of the dinosaurs, and clouded the skies and blocked out the sun’s rays, thereby causing an ice age? The one whose debris got trapped in the Earth’s atmosphere, creating a literal smoke screen that didn’t allow the sun’s rays to warm the Earth? Yeah, that meteorite. No sun, no heat equals ice age, equals climate change. That was a physical cause. It was a “reverse” greenhouse effect.
Now, apply that to current day Earth, where we are experiencing a greenhouse effect via a chemical cause – CO2 – our ozone layer traps all the CO2 that we are creating through the oxidization of carbon-based fuel sources, which emits carbon-dioxide into our atmosphere, whilst we simultaneously mow down oxygen-producing trees – we are at the lowest level of atmospheric oxygen. CO2 traps heat in the atmosphere, and you get a greenhouse effect. Look it up.
I don’t know about you, but I learned about the greenhouse effect when I was 8 years old (also the age when I was building snow forts on the lawn…no more snow for snow forts nowadays, thanks climate change) by reading National Geographic’s OWL and Chickadee magazines. How home your mom didn’t order those for you? You missed out.
Bottom line, we are belching too much CO2 into the atmosphere too fast, faster than the sun-loving trees/plants can convert it into plant energy. And ignorant people whose moms didn’t do them the favor of buying them a subscription to OWL and Chickadee when they were kids, are now completely oblivious of this logic. Sad.
#132 AB Boxter…
“So, if the climate models are unable to accurately describe the past, why are they relied upon to reliably predict the future?”
Or putting it another way….if we’re so sure climate change in the last 40 years is due to manmade Co2….what caused past historical climate changes (recorded in ice core samples/tree rings).
Why Would Banks lend to those with poor credit?
#115 jess on 05.24.19 at 8:27 am asked?
what bank would lend to someone with bankruptcy track record?
*************************************
Maybe those who think fractional reserve banking is evil, dangerous and/or creates free money for the bank can answer.
My answer it banks will not knowingly lend to those who would definitely not be expected to repay. They will lend to relatively poor credits at higher rates if they think they will make sufficient money net of some expected defaults.
Facebook has Shown 2.4 Million Users a Doctored Video of Nancy Pelosi, and it Isn’t Going to Stop.
The social media site takes a pass on battling misinformation.
Ali Breland
https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2019/05/nancy-pelosi-drunk-video-facebook/
Prince Underoo is in town – why is he even on Canadian soil? Protect your minors.
financial engineering asset stripping? Greybull Capital
Prem Sikka: British Steel crisis shows dangers of private equity
https://leftfootforward.org/2019/05/prem-sikka-british-steel-crisis-shows-dangers-of-private-equity/
Greybull Capital has been associated with a string of bankruptcies but is financially healthy itself.
@#112 Smoking Man
“I’ll be celibating in Vagas this week end”
++++
Just to confirm….
You’re celebrating a celibate weekend in Vegas?
@#127 Alaistair McG
“The birds are on their own….”
+++++
Yep.
No one is talking about the 40% decline in bird populations North America wide since the 1960’s.
Loss of winter habitat in Mexico and Central America?
Loss of Summer breeding grounds in Canada and the Us?
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/technology/science/report-finds-north-american-skies-quieter-by-15-billion-fewer-birds/article31876053/
#113 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.24.19 at 8:20 am
@#91 Ponies Prance
“Fartz,
Comrade Horgan says he will twin the tunnel.
You happy, and vote for him now?”
+++++
I voted for him last time because i couldnt stand the smell of BC Liberal corruption.
And it take a lot for me to offended by smell.
Nah, the “twinning of the tunnel” is a joke.
They dont need 4 more lanes each way.
They need 8 more lanes each way.
The 2 lanes each way now is a parking lot.
I drive it on a regular basis and by 7am Mon to Fri. there is a mile of parked semis waiting to head south on Hwy 99
A city with 3 million people bottlenecked into a 50 year old 4 lane tunnel and they want to add 4 more lanes….give me a break.
A joke.
Doesnt matter how many lanes they put in…Traffic slows for tunnels….for reasons only known to the idiots that slow down.
We live in an earthquake zone.
I personally wouldnt want to be stopped, in a tunnel, waiting for the shaking to stop.
Leave the tunnel for semis.
Build a 12 lane bridge for gas spewing F-350’s traffic and toll it.
========================
BTW..slow down in tunnel is due to people putting headlights on…which lights up rear brake lights….making everyone think that driver ahead are braking.
More lanes?….no, unless they expand the lanes on either side of tunnel the bottleneck just moves North into Richmond.
#146 Dissident on 05.24.19 at 2:23 pm
#132 AB Boxster on 05.24.19 at 11:08 am
Odd how we had all this climate change in the past, without man’s impact or any relationship to C02 levels.
Gee, could it be that C02 levels have little correlation with climate change?
– – – – – – – – – – –
Do you recall the meteorite that slammed into earth several millions of years ago? The one that killed many of the dinosaurs, and clouded the skies and blocked out the sun’s rays, thereby causing an ice age?
——————–
I don’t remember that time but some people (scientist?) have said the CO2 level at that time was 800X higher than now.
https://www.iceagenow.info/ice-age-occurred-co2-levels-800-percent-higher-now/
——————————-
Now, apply that to current day Earth, where we are experiencing a greenhouse effect via a chemical cause – CO2 – our ozone layer traps all the CO2 that we are creating through the oxidization of carbon-based fuel sources, which emits carbon-dioxide into our atmosphere, whilst we simultaneously mow down oxygen-producing trees – we are at the lowest level of atmospheric oxygen. CO2 traps heat in the atmosphere, and you get a greenhouse effect. Look it up.
——————————–
Nice summary of grade 8 science class but it doesn’t explain how dinosaurs were thriving before the sun was blocked in an environment with 800X more CO2 than now.
I don’t know about you, but I learned about the greenhouse effect when I was 8 years old (also the age when I was building snow forts on the lawn…no more snow for snow forts nowadays, thanks climate change) by reading National Geographic’s OWL and Chickadee magazines. How home your mom didn’t order those for you? You missed out.
——————-
Your inability to building snow forts now may be due to climate change but doesn’t mean it is linked CO2 as the cause so your point is moot.
Bottom line, we are belching too much CO2 into the atmosphere too fast, faster than the sun-loving trees/plants can convert it into plant energy.
—————————–
True for certain dirty 3rd world locations. Canada is carbon neutral unless you want to take the blame for forest fires which majority are caused by lightening strikes to the CO2 output.
And ignorant people whose moms didn’t do them the favor of buying them a subscription to OWL and Chickadee when they were kids, are now completely oblivious of this logic. Sad.
—————————
Sad. But for the wrong reasons.
#135 IHCTD9 on 05.24.19 at 12:41 pm
#122 Smoking Man on 05.24.19 at 9:24 am
I’ll be celibating in Vagas…
___
Wrong city for that!
————
Don’t worry- Smoking Man will pull it off
Hmmm, According to the OWL readers, all we need to do is setup a mega set of mirrors and all will be fine.
worried about the housing market??
Came across health Canada Web site
Asbestos – Canada.ca https://www.canada.ca/en/health-canada/services/chemical-substances/chemicals-management-plan/initiatives/asbestos.html 2 May 2019 … The Government of Canada recognizes that breathing in asbestos fibres can cause cancer an …
I know this thread is probably dead, but as a Lower Mainland homeowner I have to chime in about the Ric Pow story. It is very very hard to believe that his property taxes are three thousand a month, $36,000 a year. It’d be hard to believe that they are even half that, even with the new surtaxes. Peter Brown might have been paying $36k a year (and does his decision to sell in 2016 now look prescient) but hardly anyone else ever has or is. How can a nosestretcher like that appear in a news story? Well, it’s the CBC.