Going nuclear

DOUG  By Guest Blogger Doug Rowat

Last year was tough. Global equities plunged more than 10%, the US escalated its trade war with China, Brexit dragged on endlessly, Italy and its weirdo coalition government plunged the European Union into crisis, oil dropped 25% and Trump fell in love with Kim Jong-un. In short, it was ugly.

Soon after year-end, I met with a client who seemed puzzled that her portfolio was lower for 2018. I explained that she had capital market exposure and that her portfolio would never be bulletproof in ugly market years. She then asked how her assets could be protected against war. Now, “war” is a very broad term and needs clarification. There’s the so-called salami-style warfare practiced by the Russians where small conflicts are initiated to take a ‘slice at a time’ from the enemy. Russia’s clashes with the Ukraine being a good example. This kind of warfare is troubling, but it’s slow moving, localized and usually doesn’t affect markets much. On the opposite end of the spectrum is all-out thermonuclear war.

At the time I was meeting with my client, Pakistan had (it claimed) shot down two Indian fighter jets over the disputed border region of Kashmir, so to clarify, I asked if she actually meant nuclear war? “Yes”, she replied with complete seriousness.

My best advice when the missiles start flying has always been to simply crack open your best bottle of Scotch, sit back and watch the fireworks. But, from her perspective, this was a serious question, so I attempted a serious answer.

Naturally, there are no comparables for nuclear conflict because a modern nuclear warhead has never been detonated during an act of war. However, we obviously know that the damage would be unimaginable. According to Forbes, even a “small” nuclear war would have horrific consequences and kill hundreds of millions. A single warhead alone, for example, can “burn 500 square miles of a city”. Presently, there are roughly 15,000 nuclear warheads in the world.

While it’s extremely improbable that any government or equity marketplace would remain intact after a nuclear war, the years leading up to, and the first few years of, WWII provide a (very) loose comparable, as this period was probably the most disruptive in modern history. From the start of 1937 to the end of 1941 the S&P 500 plunged almost 50%. So, given this result, and knowing that a nuclear war would be infinitely worse, there can be zero protection against what would be—truly—THE worst-case scenario. Your only hope? Certainly not an investment portfolio. Look instead to alternative lifestyle choices:

Even Warren Buffett acknowledges that some events simply cannot be protected against:

There is, however, one clear, present and enduring danger to Berkshire against which Charlie and I are powerless. That threat to Berkshire is also the major threat our citizenry faces: a “successful” (as defined by the aggressor) cyber, biological, nuclear or chemical attack on the United States. That is a risk Berkshire shares with all of American business.

There is no way for American corporations or their investors to shed this risk. If an event occurs in the U.S. that leads to mass devastation, the value of all equity investments will almost certainly be decimated.

So, risk of war (or other catastrophe) is just a fact of life. And, if there’s nothing you can do to protect your investments from such outcomes anyways, why worry? Warren Buffett doesn’t. Carry on investing with the belief that mankind doesn’t actually want to cook itself to crispy bacon. If you constantly have a nuclear-war-is-coming mindset then you’re not going to make any money. While you’re waiting for the end of the world, paranoia and fear will devastate your finances, not to mention your psyche.

Game theorists Avinash Dixit and Barry Nalebuff aptly highlight the debilitating, and even comical, effects of paranoia in this old story of two rival businessmen who run into each other at a Warsaw train station:

“Where are you going?” says the first man.
“To Minsk,” replies the other.
“To Minsk, eh? What nerve you have! I know that you are telling me that you are going to Minsk because you want me to believe that you are going to Pinsk. But it so happens that I know you really ARE going to Minsk. So why are you lying to me?”

Always assuming the worst of your fellow man leads nowhere. Further, always assuming a catastrophic outcome leads to bad investment decisions. So, when mushroom clouds start dancing in your head, kick back, put your feet up and listen to this:

Life really isn’t so bad.

Doug Rowat, FCSI® is Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments and Senior Vice President, Private Client Group, Raymond James Ltd.

 

91 comments ↓

#1 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.18.19 at 3:03 pm

And just when I began to believe Apocalypse 2019 was finally on the back burner…….

#2 Kenny H on 05.18.19 at 3:12 pm

What if those people like Peter Schiff are right about holding precious metals as a hedge against this kind of thing?

#3 Keyboard Smasher on 05.18.19 at 3:23 pm

>There’s the so-called salami-style warfare practiced by the Russians where small conflicts are initiated to take a ‘slice at a time’ from the enemy. Russia’s clashes with the Ukraine being a good example.

What kind of revisionist non-sense is this?

The “clashes” in Russia were initiated by the Kagan-Clinton branch of the United States State Department, where they engineered a coup d’etat ejecting the Russian-aligned guy with a Washington-aligned junta.

Russia’s hand was forced since they could not sit idle and watch their Black Sea port of Sevastopol annexed under the new regime.

The treacherous West lost Ukraine Crimea, and then refused to assist Ukraine in any meaningful way.

#4 andre demers on 05.18.19 at 3:24 pm

Life is good.
Enjoy and relax !

#5 earlybird on 05.18.19 at 3:29 pm

Hedge this risk by enjoying your life and at least cross a few off the bucket list. I can’t believe anyone would ever worry about this…cue the preppers…lol..

#6 Lost...but not leased on 05.18.19 at 3:30 pm

Farced baby farced

#7 FreeBird on 05.18.19 at 3:41 pm

Doug maybe just me but worrying about your portfolio in the event of nuclear world war is akin to knowing where the lights on the cabin floor of a plane are in the event its about to crash into the ocean…both sound good but in reality completely useless. Again maybe just me but unless you have access to a good nuclear proof bunker you won’t care. Even then maybe not. My husband’s background is nuclear physics/physicist so I trust him on this one to take Doug’s advice and listen to good music. Some wine or rum couldn’t hurt. Enjoy the long weekend.

#8 Smoking Man on 05.18.19 at 3:51 pm

Anyone not in the markets is fool.

One way elevator up while Trump rules. Might get a few buying dips. But that’s it.

Now that members of the DOJ and FBI will turn and eat each other now that Barr is cleaning house.

Wonderfull time to be alive.

#WWG1WGA

#9 Yukon Elvis on 05.18.19 at 3:51 pm

DELETED

#10 Howard on 05.18.19 at 4:27 pm

In Australia today the leftist-globalist Labour Party just lost the federal election to the centre-right Liberal Party. Labour was predicted to win handily, polls were off yet again.

The worldwide backlash against the globalist left continues. I don’t see how T2 can avoid it.

#11 Andrewt on 05.18.19 at 4:28 pm

So, did anyone see the front page of the Globe today?

https://www.theglobeandmail.com

#12 Lead Paint on 05.18.19 at 4:57 pm

Just spent a few days in Positano and Capri, La Dolce Vita may be on to something, incredibly beautiful . Finally tracked down a small jar of peanut butter for 7 Euros ($ 10.50) so even my two year old is happy. And no need to figure out tip percentages after dinner…. Bella Bella Bella.

FYI ‘la dolce vita’ translates to ‘the sweet life’, no wonder he is a shill for Nutella!

#13 AK on 05.18.19 at 4:58 pm

“Italy and its weirdo coalition government plunged the European Union into crisis”
=====================================
Has the European Union ever not been in a crisis?

#14 Stone on 05.18.19 at 5:01 pm

#3 Keyboard Smasher on 05.18.19 at 3:23 pm
>There’s the so-called salami-style warfare practiced by the Russians where small conflicts are initiated to take a ‘slice at a time’ from the enemy. Russia’s clashes with the Ukraine being a good example.

What kind of revisionist non-sense is this?

The “clashes” in Russia were initiated by the Kagan-Clinton branch of the United States State Department, where they engineered a coup d’etat ejecting the Russian-aligned guy with a Washington-aligned junta.

Russia’s hand was forced since they could not sit idle and watch their Black Sea port of Sevastopol annexed under the new regime.

The treacherous West lost Ukraine Crimea, and then refused to assist Ukraine in any meaningful way.

———

You must be really popular with the ladies. Any tips you can provide?

The treacherous West…LOL

#15 Doug Rowat on 05.18.19 at 5:03 pm

#3 Keyboard Smasher on 05.18.19 at 3:23 pm
>There’s the so-called salami-style warfare practiced by the Russians where small conflicts are initiated to take a ‘slice at a time’ from the enemy. Russia’s clashes with the Ukraine being a good example.

What kind of revisionist non-sense is this?

The “clashes” in Russia were initiated by the Kagan-Clinton branch of the United States State Department, where they engineered a coup d’etat ejecting the Russian-aligned guy with a Washington-aligned junta.

Russia’s hand was forced since they could not sit idle and watch their Black Sea port of Sevastopol annexed under the new regime.

The treacherous West lost Ukraine Crimea, and then refused to assist Ukraine in any meaningful way.

I see you found Louis Armstrong relaxing.

–Doug

#16 Remembrancer on 05.18.19 at 5:07 pm

#2 Kenny H on 05.18.19 at 3:12 pm
What if those people like Peter Schiff are right about holding precious metals as a hedge against this kind of thing?
—————————–
Re-read the post. There is no hedge against an economy experiencing the incineration of 10s of millions and the incapacitation of 100s of millions if not billions. Your gold certificates or actual Krugerrands buried in the backyard ain’t gonna tide you over… A steel horse drawn plow would be more valuable (don’t forget the harness)…

The benefits we reap as members of a society that can allocate free time reading this message board exist by tenuous threads that rely on the machine humming along with no more than the occasional blip like killer storms or bushfire wars in places far removed that cause plenty of local misery but won’t affect you. 50 mt blasts don’t count as blips…

#17 Trumpocalypse2019 on 05.18.19 at 5:14 pm

Doug, you present a synopsis of the real and imminent threats we face in a useful way from a financial perspective.

However, we have no luxury of time, and already must be ready for not just nuclear explosions but disease and lack of food, water, healthcare and fuel.

We are barreling towards an apocalypse and most are delusional and ignorant of this reality.

The weeks ahead will be awful.

PREPARE

#18 Long-Time Lurker on 05.18.19 at 5:20 pm

I happen to be reading about World War II, right now. The year is 1944 and the tide is turning against the Axis nations. I’m reading Martin Gilbert’s, The History of the Twentieth Century, Volume 2, 1933-1951.

I also read Gilbert’s, The History of the Twentieth Century, Volume 1, 1900-1932.

It’s all very interesting and particularly gripping once you get to WWII. 1900 starts with the Boxer Revolution in China and ends in 1932 with Hitler taking over Germany.

Gilbert weaves together all the historical events very well according to the time-line and frequently inserts little vignettes written by other people experiencing the events (from other books) so the reading isn’t dry.

So, Ustabe, I haven’t been solely focusing on my knitting.

#19 Dave on 05.18.19 at 5:22 pm

The USA is beating the war drums again, so someone is getting invaded. Venezuela or Iran – many lives will be lost in a fake Operation Freedom war.

Global domination by America is still better then China or Russia

#20 Ustabe on 05.18.19 at 5:22 pm

#5 earlybird on 05.18.19 at 3:29 pm

Hedge this risk by enjoying your life and at least cross a few off the bucket list. I can’t believe anyone would ever worry about this…cue the preppers…lol..

Exactly.

We are doing the Alcan Highway up and the Cassier down this year. At 70+ I’m not certain I’d be able to do it if I waited another year.

For now I can hoist the kayaks on top and clip my little Teardrop to the X Trail and go…I’m not even worried about the fuel prices way up north…never mind the end of the world.

#21 Deplorable Dude on 05.18.19 at 5:42 pm

Well the equivalent of the 2016 US election just happened in Australia…the media and polls got it dead wrong….and the socialists down under are melting down.

Will be interesting to see if any high ranking intelligence agency persons get fired by the new PM? Happened last week in Italy. Both countries fingered in the attempted coup of Trump (also the UK)….everyone is trying to get ahead of the impending declassification of the origin of the FISA spying on the Trump campaign.

Even slime balls Comey and Brennan turned on each other this week.

Someone pass the popcorn please.

#22 Peter McLean on 05.18.19 at 5:46 pm

Doug for Prez!

#23 acdel on 05.18.19 at 6:01 pm

I will take your advice Doug and just open a bottle of Scotch and watch the fireworks as we are doing now.

#24 Lost...but not leased on 05.18.19 at 6:02 pm

People actually believe Nukes exist ??

Proof please….

#25 Alberta Ed on 05.18.19 at 6:04 pm

Well, as the Far Side cartoon (two fishermen in a rowboat looking at a mushroom cloud) put it, “I’ll tell you what it means: no minimum size and no bag limit.”

#26 Unhinged Trader on 05.18.19 at 6:05 pm

@#2 Kenny H

>What if those people like Peter Schiff are right about holding precious metals as a hedge against this kind of thing?

And how exactly are shiny coins going to help you secure food in the post-nuclear holocaust?

Rice and ammunition will be the only things of value in the several years following a nuclear exchange.

#27 Flop... on 05.18.19 at 6:20 pm

#19 Ustabe on 05.18.19 at 5:22 pm

We are doing the Alcan Highway up and the Cassier down this year. At 70+ I’m not certain I’d be able to do it if I waited another year.

//////////////////////

Ustabe, I have some important financial information for you.

I did that trip a few years back.

I would recommend doing the Cassier on the way up and the Alcan on the way back down.

That was the advice given to me once in a travel book and I followed it and after doing to trip I can see why.

Doing the Cassier first allows you to take your time and enjoy the road less traveled.

Cassier is not as rough as it used to be but I still found a couple of juicy bits.

My windshield got cracked as well.

We went all the way up to Dawson City.

If you take the Alcan back it is easier miles if you are running short of time or something happens back home.

We took two months to complete the trip.

Safe travels…

M44BC

#28 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.18.19 at 6:22 pm

@#16 Trumpocalypse2019

“We are barreling towards an apocalypse and most are delusional and ignorant of this reality.’

++++++

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QOkSvLqkafU

#29 acdel on 05.18.19 at 6:29 pm

Louis Armstrong; what a legend! It has been awhile since I heard and appreciated that melody, thanks.

#30 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.18.19 at 6:32 pm

@#19 Ustabe
“We are doing the Alcan Highway up and the Cassier down this year.”
+++++

I wanted to do the Alcan into Tungsten and check out the hotsprings, never got that far. ran out of time.

I did the Cassiar up to Whitehorse then north to Dawson City via Skagway ( yep, I detoured through Chicken Alaska and the Top of the World Hwy….down into Dawson).
Then north again on the Dempster to Inuvik.

I did it about 20 years ago in Mid August when the black flies, mosquitos and tourists are falling off…..( the first frost really knocks the bugs down but the daytime temps are still hot.)
The Northern Lights were spectacular, annual Perseidis meteor shower was still showing off…..
When on the Top of the World or the Dempster, bring firewood and water so you can camp on the road side where ever you want.

Excellent road trip.

#31 Flop... on 05.18.19 at 6:36 pm

Nuclear War?

Well, Robax, I guess that’s one way to get your Saturdays back…

M44BC

Lords of War: Visualizing the Global Arms Trade Network.

“Selling weapons to other countries is big business. It’s so lucrative that President Trump famously refused to cancel an American arms deal with Saudi Arabia in the aftermath of Jamal Khashoggi’s murder. So just how big is the international market?

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) and the World Bank keep detailed figures on international arms imports and exports, counting every major conventional weapon from missiles to radar systems and military airplanes. We used the latest available complete data, sometimes going as far back as 2016 for some countries, to create a unique set of maps. The larger a country appears, the more arms it imports or exports. Plus, we added a color-coded outer ring corresponding to the level of each country’s contribution.

Let’s start by looking at who’s selling the most weapons. The U.S. stands out as the world leader by a long shot, shipping well over $12B in arms to other countries. To be sure, a significant amount of American arms exports go to Israel, but there are several other large customers across the Middle East as well, like Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the UAE.

To understand the extent to which Americans dominate the international market for weapons, just look around the world. The second most prolific exporter, Russia, only sees half as much business ($6.15B). France ($2.16B) is the only other country topping $2 billion, with the rest of the major players from Western Europe contributing less. Israel for its part is actually a net exporter of arms ($1.26B exports vs. $528M imports). And China, despite being the second largest economy in the world, only exports some $1.13B. There is only one country from Africa on our map (South Africa at $74M), and only a couple from Latin America. This means that developed countries in the West are, by far, the biggest exporters of arms around the world.

But let’s see who’s buying all those weapons. The world map of importers looks radically different from the exporters. For starters, Saudi Arabia and India are major players, soaking up some $4.11B and $3.36B of the market, respectively. Each country is surrounded by a smattering of other countries making big purchases too.

There are lots of reasons why some countries are major importers. There’s efficiency in a global market where a country can simply purchase weapons as opposed to manufacturing everything at home. Why would Australia, for example, try to build military aircraft when it can simply buy them from the U.S.? There are also lots of regional conflicts pressuring countries to spend top dollar for the latest military technologies, like India and Pakistan. And then there are a number of disreputable countries led by strongmen or oligarchies. They have their own agenda, and clearly they’re willing to spend big bucks for the best weapons.”

Visualization

https://howmuch.net/articles/worlds-biggest-military-weapons-exporters-and-importers

#32 confused on 05.18.19 at 6:40 pm

#17 Long-Time Lurker,

You may enjoy Niall Ferguson’s, ‘The War of the World’.

#33 Wiggleroom on 05.18.19 at 7:05 pm

Just when I thought this blog couldn’t get any more depressing…

#34 old dinosaur on 05.18.19 at 7:10 pm

Internet talk about Washington Swamp wanting a war against Russia and Iran

Interesting that only Trump says no.

The swamp needs a distraction not unlike T2.

Expect T2 to attack Switzerland. He needs a distracton. All troups will try to beat each other in the downhill at some fnacy ski resport where they serve ta

#35 Linda on 05.18.19 at 7:31 pm

Some events are simply too catastrophic to take in. Even as the event is occurring, I for one am waiting for someone to yell ‘cut’ in the background, because my brain refuses to believe what I’m seeing is actually happening.

Eventually however my slow brain catches up with reality & I then try to determine what, if anything, I can do to improve matters immediately. Once that is sorted I then move on to figuring out what, if anything, I can do improve matters in the longer term. Fortunately any crisis or catastrophe I’ve encountered to date have been localized. Nuclear war or a truly widespread, possibly end of life as we know it event? I can guarantee that the last thing I’ll be wondering about is how to protect my portfolio. Survival of me & mine comes first. Not much point being the richest body in the graveyard…..

#36 Marcus on 05.18.19 at 7:33 pm

Invest in the book “Strategic Relocation” by Joel Skousen. You will not be disappointed.

#37 reynolds531 on 05.18.19 at 7:34 pm

My plan is comprised of the receipe for mustard gas, and a map to tumpocolypse 2019s underground bunker.

#38 BigQ on 05.18.19 at 7:52 pm

BBB!

Bullets, Bandages, and Booze. There is an interesting book out there that describes life in 1990’s Sarajevo during the siege. The little things in life such as TP, vodka, and sugar became highly prized in the city.

#39 Tony on 05.18.19 at 7:52 pm

It seems the only thing that can push the U.S. stock market down is if Trump steps down or is impeached. World War III wouldn’t matter to the U.S. stock market just like any other news doesn’t matter. They just wait for the selling to abate then they rig the machines to push the market back to new highs no matter what the news is or what earnings are.

#40 LP on 05.18.19 at 8:05 pm

#20 Ustabe on 05.18.19 at 5:22 pm

Exactly.

We are doing the Alcan Highway up and the Cassier down this year. At 70+ I’m not certain I’d be able to do it if I waited another year.
************************************
I’m [figuratively] with you…72 in a couple of weeks and planning to drive as far as Calgary. Leaving Kitchener mid-August and will take as long as it needs, or until the money runs out. And like you, I think if I don’t do it this year then I certainly won’t do it next year. Wish me luck!

#41 espressobob on 05.18.19 at 8:16 pm

Yoga is the answer to an all out thermonuclear war.

This will give you the ability to bend over backwards and kiss your ass goodbye.

#42 tccontrarian on 05.18.19 at 8:27 pm

A ‘serious’ answer without mentioning perhaps 5-10% exposure to gold.

Seriously?

Ray Dalio would have – but then again, his Porche(s) was paid in cash.

The truth is, a modern nuclear war would be the end of us – and the ones ‘spared’ would’ve wished they hadn’t survived.

A drink or two that we never have to witness one!

TCC

#43 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.18.19 at 8:45 pm

@#93 Social Warrior
“I think she’s smart and careful; one of the better Trudeau cabinet ministers, one to watch.”
++++

I’m not disagreeing with you.
Freeland is very intelligent and could debate circles around Selfie.
However …SHE isnt running for PM.
Hence the Liberals are still in trouble.
And when was the last time a NAFTA “deal” stuck?
The day before Trump tore the last one up?
Smoke and Mirrors.
The Libs needed some good news in a dismal election year.
This summer should be amusing.
I fully expect Trudeau to pull a “shirtless seadoo” photo op somewhere in Quebec to promote Bombardier… hopefully it will be as painfully received as Stockwell Day’s Penticton PR debacle.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/one-liners-float-in-wake-of-days-stunt/article22404572/

#44 mark on 05.18.19 at 8:47 pm

You can either believe capitalism will continue working, or you can take the doomer approach.

The capitalism approach is a pretty basic one. Globally diversified portfolio of stocks, bonds and reits and just rebalance it when required. There’s no guarantee, but that’s risk.

The doomer approach leads you down all manner of options for speculative outcomes, but in the event of massive system failure we’re all in the same boat. Good luck if you plan on lugging around a pile of gold in a post apocalyptic wasteland. You won’t last long.

#45 Lee on 05.18.19 at 8:53 pm

Your column has spoke about cashing in buyouts of large government pensions before. I don’t think you touched on DBs pensions much on how you could maximize on it. (Example RRSPS and max contribution and max results). My example my wife and I both have DP pensions collecting on one and cashing out the other. Her age is younger than mine and both retiring at same time. Garth help

#46 Nonplused on 05.18.19 at 9:07 pm

Doug, it seems rare for you (or Ryan) to delve into the political or existential so often as Garth does but this time you’ve gone full Monty.

But your advice is correct. The stock market won’t survive a major nuclear war, but in that event neither will we, and if one or two of us does happen to survive TSLA won’t be our primary concern.

The correct outlook is indeed that we’ve had the bombs hanging over our head since 1945, and they still haven’t dropped. Thankfully. But if they do we are all dead. So the proper way to invest is as if maybe they won’t for another 74 years. I am not so optimistic about that at this point, I put the odds of us surviving the nuclear age at zero. But for an individual, as Garth has often stated the biggest risk you face is outliving your money. So while the music is still playing, you have to dance, as some famous banker once said.

Nuclear war seems like it is a much more pressing issue than an asteroid hitting the planet or Yellowstone erupting or even climate change, but let’s not forget that there are 101 ways to die. As some Greek guy said, “Live like you are going to die tomorrow, but do business like you will live for ever.” Or the Chinese guy who said “The best time to plant a tree is 20 years ago. The second best time is today.”

I used to prep for the end of the world but quit that after all my prep food expired and I realized it would only buy me a few months and the neighbors would just come steal it, possibly at gun point. Small capital loss but the stuff had to be thrown out. Now I only prep for a couple of weeks like an ice storm or something of that nature.

If the end comes in the form of all out nuclear war, we will have terraformed the planet into something that looks like Mars, only worse. There is no reason to prepare for that. Heading off to heaven or even hell if that’s where you are going is a better option.

So folks, invest as if there will be a tomorrow. If there is, you’ll be glad you did. If there isn’t, it won’t matter in the slightest. But do have 2 weeks of food in the house.

#47 Ace Goodheart on 05.18.19 at 9:09 pm

So freezing up here at the cottage. 10 degrees and it’s raining. Fortunately used Ontario’s green heating and cooling grant to get a $6500 A/C and heating wall unit for $1500 after rebates so as long as I stay indoors I am toasty warm. Fell asleep on the couch last night with the wall unit pumping heat at my head. So cozy.

In the morning headed over to Gravenhurst Canadian Tire and met Doug Ford shopping for paint (his family has a cottage up here). Our eleven month old tried to throw a paint roller at him (we had given it to the little guy to keep him occupied).

Read an interesting article about how the Vancouver housing market is in free fall. 14 million dollar houses going for 6 mil. 50 cents on the dollar.

Painted the shed. Wore my bug proof head net. The black flies are terrible this year.

Watching as the neighbour’s bonfire gets rained out.

Heading home tomorrow. Happy Victoria Day….

#48 Ace Goodheart on 05.18.19 at 9:19 pm

Friend of mine is a permanent resident. Won’t swear allegiance to the Queen. So citizenship is out for him. Has to take the oath. Won’t do it.

I totally get that. I was born here. Never had to swear allegiance. Couldn’t have done it either.

I mean, if she was in trouble and I could help then normal rules of human decency would apply and I’d lend a hand. But alliegence? No way. Not doing that.

My will is my own. I don’t subjugate my will and my decision making powers to unelected nobility.

Sorry Queen. You’re on your own there….

#49 NoName on 05.18.19 at 9:22 pm

#38 BigQ on 05.18.19 at 7:52 pm
BBB!

Bullets, Bandages, and Booze. There is an interesting book out there that describes life in 1990’s Sarajevo during the siege. The little things in life such as TP, vodka, and sugar became highly prized in the city.

Sarajevo was as many other city’s in a siege so everything was highly prized, but there is more to it. Having to live thru that $#!7 now in a hind sight it was a good 2 yrs maybe more years worth of events that lead to the point where what happened happened.

There were 3 fractions there two getting ready while one was sitting on a fence and refused to choose side. Some scholars, me included believe it wouldn’t be as bad if that fraction wasnt stalling.

Out of 220 kids from grade 9 in my high school maybe 20-25 are living there (some other city some other place, not sarajevo) and rest of them are all oaver the place. Its safe to say inteligecia left, just befor or shortly after and steel leaving.

If i remember correctly beside hatriot, getting a gasoline was an issue, dentists were doing root canal without anesthesia and using some left over communist made mercury/lead fillings. (Went through this one my self)

So in my humble opinion get your tooths in order in preparation for apocalypse. I recommend screw on type, those that we see on infomercials all the time. When a flash hits mind as well go with nice smile. ;-)

And on a side note i wish if someone would recommend me some book about linear thinking in non linear world…

#50 Herb on 05.18.19 at 9:25 pm

#3 Keyboard Smasher,

you’ve done cracked the code. Congrats!

And Doug, don’t worry about the stock market. Economies have always done very well in preparing for and fighting wars, as long as they did not end up on the losing side. There is no one that the USA could lose to in the foreseeable future, so enjoy the scotch and rest easy.

#51 The Great Gordonski on 05.18.19 at 9:27 pm

#3 Keyboard, exactly right on all points. The competition for financing debt in the Ukraine had come down on the Russian side offering better terms. With hundreds of billions at stake which were already accounted for as the saviour on the EU balance sheet they used the “Colour Revolution” ruse to execute the coup as they had in Georgia. Nato’s expansion in Ukraine would have been equivelant to Japan grabbing San Francisco Bay.

Why would Russia accept that? The US wouldn’t, the EU wouldn’t. In fact Russian East Ukraine citizens had just had their language rights extinguished, they were pissed. Would Quebec accept a ban on the French language? Lots more ‘back story’ on this, but the EU/Canada propaganda is far from true.

#52 IHCTD9 on 05.18.19 at 9:41 pm

Tell her to get a large bunker and stuff it full with booze, guns, ammo, freeze dried food, and antibiotics. If she survives the blasts and the subsequent nuclear winter, she’ll win big.

#53 NoName on 05.18.19 at 10:08 pm

Interesting, money ball but basketball.

https://youtu.be/MpLHMKTolVw

#54 Long-Time Lurker on 05.18.19 at 10:33 pm

#32, Confused.

Thanks.

Smokey, go to a hospital emergency room and get checked out. You might have had a heart attack.

#55 History on 05.18.19 at 10:37 pm

#18 Long Time Lurker – The President of Germany was Paul Von Hindenburg in 1932, and Hitler never came to power until 1934.

#56 akashic record on 05.18.19 at 10:51 pm

From the time when I was born, until the day when my father came home and told us that he will be sent to fight at the war in Vietnam, I did not waste any of my time with politics.

During those years things got magically resolved without the need of my worries, sadness, anger of approval about how that’s going to happen, without the need for me to hate politicians or anyone else.

Maybe the Scotch or Armstrong would have made a difference. Or if my father didn’t survive Vietnam. He didn’t make it to the jungle to smell napalm. He apparently drunk sufficient amount of Scotch and listened to jazz long enough to divert that fate. G_d bless his soul.

#57 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.19.19 at 12:15 am

#30 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.18.19 at 6:32 pm
@#19 Ustabe
“We are doing the Alcan Highway up and the Cassier down this year.”
+++++

I wanted to do the Alcan into Tungsten and check out the hotsprings, never got that far. ran out of time.

I did the Cassiar up to Whitehorse then north to Dawson City via Skagway ( yep, I detoured through Chicken Alaska and the Top of the World Hwy….down into Dawson).
Then north again on the Dempster to Inuvik.

I did it about 20 years ago in Mid August when the black flies, mosquitos and tourists are falling off…..( the first frost really knocks the bugs down but the daytime temps are still hot.)
The Northern Lights were spectacular, annual Perseidis meteor shower was still showing off…..
When on the Top of the World or the Dempster, bring firewood and water so you can camp on the road side where ever you want.f

Excellent road trip.
—————
Good for you.
Did you do the trip on an F-150?

#58 Figmund Sreud on 05.19.19 at 12:28 am

Relevant to the subject: Jared Diamond on his new book, Upheaval: Turning Points for Nations in Crisis

https://www.amazon.com/Upheaval-Turning-Points-Nations-Crisis/dp/0316409138?creativeASIN=0316409138&linkCode=w61&imprToken=fcasY0-5w2tms78iJ3BdIg&slotNum=0&ascsubtag=%5B%5Din%5Bp%5Dcjvh13bl7002t7hy6u46lzv3v%5Bi%5Dundefined%5Bd%5DT%5Bz%5Dm%5Bt%5Dw

Snip from the interview:

So for the state of the world today, how do we prioritize what’s going on in the world? We have to avoid a nuclear holocaust. If we have a nuclear holocaust, we’re finished, even if we solve climate change. We have to solve climate change because if we don’t solve climate change but we deal with a nuclear holocaust, we’re finished. If we solve climate change and don’t have a nuclear holocaust but we continue with unsustainable resource use, we’re finished. And if we deal with the nuclear problem and climate change and sustainable use, but we maintain or increase inequality around the world, we’re finished. So, we can’t prioritize. Just as a couple in a marriage have to agree about sex and children and in-laws and money and religion and politics. We got to solve all four of those problems.

Enchilada:

Jared Diamond: There’s a 49 Percent Chance the World As We Know It Will End by 2050
http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/05/jared-diamond-on-his-new-book-upheaval.html

Bestest,

F.S. – Calgary, Alberta. (… scheduled to be pushing daisies by no later than 2051)

#59 Smoking Man on 05.19.19 at 1:05 am

So T2 is thinking his chances of getting reelected is censoring logical voices in partnership with his fellow cultist globalist social media companies.

Do it. Wont make a differance.

T2 and his kind are getting rejected all over the world because MSM gives their insanity a loud platform to show logical people how retarted they are.

Has zero to do with social media. Remember when trump was running, social media was quite. The water cooler was quite.

Once the curtain was drawn. Bye bye phyco Hillary.

Dr Smoking Man
PhD Herdonomics.

#60 Russ on 05.19.19 at 1:12 am

Ace Goodheart on 05.18.19 at 9:19 pm

Friend of mine is a permanent resident. Won’t swear allegiance to the Queen. So citizenship is out for him. Has to take the oath. Won’t do it.

I totally get that. I was born here. Never had to swear allegiance. Couldn’t have done it either.

I mean, if she was in trouble and I could help then normal rules of human decency would apply and I’d lend a hand. But alliegence? No way. Not doing that.

My will is my own. I don’t subjugate my will and my decision making powers to unelected nobility.

Sorry Queen. You’re on your own there….
======================

Hey Ace,

No problem. As a natural born Canadian you’re already a British subject. It’s one of the great things about being a constitutional monarchy instead of a republic, like the USA.

Want to move south now?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Canadian_nationality_law

Cheers, R

#61 Dolce Vita on 05.19.19 at 3:48 am

“…Italy and its weirdo coalition government…”

Oh yeah that is informed by N. American Left dominated MSM or to quote Will Rogers:

“All I know is just what I read in the papers, and that’s an alibi for my ignorance.”

Speaking of “papers” and learn to use Chrome and Right Click “Translate to English”, read these for a few days (like I do, I read more but a sampling for you and your underinformed cohort):

Il Manifesto (far left, Communist, you ought to like them):

https://ilmanifesto.it/

RAI (State funded, perfectly neutral unlike Lefty CDN MSM, the + $600 MM taxpayer funded at the feeding trough…all your favorites I am sure, e.g., CBC, Global, CTV, Star, Globe & Mail…):

http://www.rainews.it/

Il Foglio (Right wing, distasteful to a nouveau riche, don’t know shit from clay individual):

https://www.ilfoglio.it/

Your N. American Lefty elite funded MSM does not like Populist Gov’s because they cannot control them. Italia Gov. has a +70% plurality and is THE ONLY G7 Gov. the people are happy with (including yours “Doug” in Canada).

German Hillary has now encouraged a truly radical xenophobic right to arise (AfD) and France and the UK, imploding from within.

Our “weirdo coalition”:

Lefty, Center M5S has tackled, with success, Gov. graft and looking/implementing social equity programs (unlike Dilettante Trudeau that talks a good story).

Righty Lega has tackled, with success, Organized Crime, Law & Order and near ended body trafficking of so called “Migrants”, +95% of which have been deported using EU Laws.

OH YES, I forgot to mention the “weirdo coalition” managed to pull Italia out of recession just recently (unlike the prior non-populist EU sanctioned PD Gov. Italia had [= Liberals to you so that you can understand] that kept them perpetually in or near recession).

INFORM YOURSELF much better and you’ll find that Armageddon click bait photos are unnecessary and come to realize how very PEDESTRIAN, if not superficial, they are.

#62 Dolce Vita on 05.19.19 at 4:19 am

Forgot to mention, the “Fascists”, the current RAGE word in N. American Social Media by people who do not know the difference between a hole in the ground and one of their biological orifices, here is what they polled in Italia’s last Federal Election (the CasaPound Italia Party):

Camera dei Deputati (like Cdn. Parliament):

312,432 (0.95%) of the 32,840,055 votes cast.

Senato della Repubblica (like Cdn. Senate, except elected):

259,628 (0.86%) of the 30,213,874 votes cast.

Even with partial proportional representation (promised by your Dilettante Trudeau, delivered without fanfare in Italia) CasaPound Italia elected this many Deputees or Senators:

0

Go look at how the truly RADICAL Xenophobic RIGHT did in France & Germany in their last elections (incl. the UK with UKIP, you know, altruistic Nigel Farage et. al.).

Who are the weirdo’s now “Doug”?

Added this because you know, that’s what the brainwashed N. American MSM, Social Media and their brain numbed acolytes secretly think (the latter word relating to them…has made René Descartes roll in his grave, numerous times).

——————————————–

PS: Do read my prior post Italian MSM links, you’ll learn what a FREE PRESS is really like. So you’ll feel right at home, add this to your “learn what a free press is like” home work:

La Repubblica (Left of Center):

https://www.repubblica.it/

Makes The Star et. al. read like the National Enquirer.

#63 Trumpocalypse2019 on 05.19.19 at 7:47 am

We are now at the point where privacy is important for your preparations.

I do not share the locations of my bunkers or retreats. In general, you need to have locations at least about 150 km from major centres. A used RV in a rural area is a very functional choice.

There will be war before the summer is halfway. We will see mushroom clouds like today’s pic.

Stock up on dehydrated proteins, powdered milk, toilet paper. Look into drones, some useful possibilities have recently emerged, can’t say too much about that here.

If you are in cottage country this weekend, forget the BBQ. Spend your time scouting and planning alternate access routes by road and bike.

It is coming.

PREPARE.

#64 Trumpocalypse2019 on 05.19.19 at 8:07 am

A wide range of medicines will be unavailable by the time the wars break out. Use your benefit plan if you have one and stock up before May 31. Marijuana will be a useful distraction, and is more easily stored and transported than alcohol.

There will be about 400 million dead by Labour Day, including 2-4 million in Canada.

Water. Water. Water. You cannot store enough. Two backup stashes is essential to have.

PREPARE.

#65 Asterix1 on 05.19.19 at 8:22 am

The time has come for Canada to move forward and remove the training wheels! Our constitutional monarchy is completely outdated and does not pass the smell test in 2019.

Forcing new Canadians to swear allegiance to a bunch of rich, entitled and inbred British royal family is not the way to start a new relationship.

The oath as it stands:
I swear (or affirm)
That I will be faithful
And bear true allegiance
To Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth the Second
Queen of Canada
Her Heirs and Successors
And that I will faithfully observe
The laws of Canada
And fulfil my duties as a Canadian citizen.

Concept for new oath:
I swear, that I will be faithful
And bear true allegiance to Canada
And that I will faithfully observe its laws
And fulfil my duties as a Canadian citizen.

#66 Doug Rowat on 05.19.19 at 8:53 am

#62 Dolce Vita on 05.19.19 at 4:19 am

Forgot to mention, the “Fascists”, the current RAGE word in N. American Social Media by people who do not know the difference between a hole in the ground and one of their biological orifices…

…Go look at how the truly RADICAL Xenophobic RIGHT did in France & Germany in their last elections (incl. the UK with UKIP, you know, altruistic Nigel Farage et. al.).

Who are the weirdo’s now “Doug”?

I’m sure they know.

–Doug

#67 NoName on 05.19.19 at 8:54 am

this is exactly what we are until Friday, but at least its sunny outside. must be a truck payment…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7qkjbQBEhvg

#68 dharma bum on 05.19.19 at 9:02 am

About the picture:

What a GORGEOUS sunset.
Beautiful.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R4FfNYjw6qU

#69 baloney Sandwitch on 05.19.19 at 9:07 am

More & more I am realizing that I have spend every penny that I make. The problem is I spent my life grubbing for $ and saving every penny. Its a big shift from accumulation to dissipation. Very different mental circuitry. I think it would be very pathetic if I die with a million $ RRSP. My kids would say what a sucker & a moron.

#70 Doug Rowat on 05.19.19 at 9:10 am

#46 Nonplused on 05.18.19 at 9:07 pm

Doug, it seems rare for you (or Ryan) to delve into the political or existential so often as Garth does but this time you’ve gone full Monty.

Nuclear war seems like it is a much more pressing issue than an asteroid hitting the planet…

A moment of silence for Harry Stamper.

–Doug

#71 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.19.19 at 9:14 am

As for the oath:
Personally, I would never swear allegiance to someone called Archie.

#72 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.19.19 at 9:17 am

@#57 Potential Potentate
“Did you do the trip on an F-150?”

******

I actually sat IN the F-150 but your idea sounds far more entertaining….
Total trip kms?
Approx 7500 kms in 3 weeks.
Canada is huge.

#73 Figmund Sreud on 05.19.19 at 9:36 am

Going nuclear
_________________________

Actually, … going extinct is more likely! No?

Consider this google-fetched-for-me nugget of suggestions this morning:

Escaping extinction through paradigm shift
‘Rebellion’ is not enough. We need to build new systems from the ground up, right now

… snip:

“Over the last 500 years or so, humanity has erected an ‘endless growth’ civilization premised on a particular patchwork of ideological worldviews, ethical values, political and economic structures, and personal behaviors. This is a paradigm that elevates the vision of human beings as disconnected, atomistic, competing material units, which seek to maximize their own material consumption as the principal mechanism for self-gratification.”

… the rest at:

https://medium.com/insurge-intelligence/escaping-extinction-through-paradigm-shift-83e33d4cb548

Best,

F.S. – Calgary, Alberta.

#74 Remembrancer on 05.19.19 at 9:40 am

#65 Asterix1 on 05.19.19 at 8:22 am
The time has come for Canada to move forward and remove the training wheels! Our constitutional monarchy is completely outdated and does not pass the smell test in 2019.
——————-
So you are going to work Monday and/or refusing extra vacation pay to demonstrate your commitment to anti-monarchism in Canada?

#75 Dogman01 on 05.19.19 at 10:05 am

Thinking people should watch “The Fog of War: Eleven Lessons from the Life of Robert S. McNamara”

It is a chilling masterpiece.

A insight into strategic war thinking and an end of life confession of a man whom operated in that world.

Trailer here :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hcAyzbMvF7k

Full version:
https://documentaryheaven.com/the-fog-of-war/

#76 Dolce Vita on 05.19.19 at 10:10 am

#66 Doug Rowat

No they don’t know Doug, not in the experiential sense.

They need some of the “Old Country” types to explain what it was like. My parents did to me. Why in 12/14 Cdn. elections (1 for Jack) I always voted Liberal.

The American’s the worst. They call each other Fascist, Nazi etc. on Twitter like it’s “The Norm”.

Like my Dad would tell me “who put a quarter in your slot machine”?

On days like today, he was correct.

#77 Remembrancer on 05.19.19 at 10:17 am

#51 The Great Gordonski on 05.18.19 at 9:27 pm
#3 Keyboard, exactly right on all points.
———————
Guys, tell us all about it on RT.

Look, Russian doctrine must at least in part be based on experiencing devastating invasions in 1812 and 1941 from Europe and not really wanting to have that happen again, gotcha, but its 2019 and destabilizing her neighbours and sowing general mayhem is really not good for business overall… Mir…

#78 Dolce Vita on 05.19.19 at 10:22 am

And why am I in such a pissy mood Doug, you might ask (and rightly so)?

Well. Let me tell you.

Here in N. Italia we have been getting La Land Winter weather for about 1.5 weeks now and they are forecasting at least another week.

This “Italo-Canadese” and his Italian compatriots have had just about enough of it…up to the gills (pun intended).

How I put up with 20 years of this kind of La La Land weather is beyond me, but I did.

Global Warming my ass. Try like Global Drenching.

Here Kanuckistan inhabitants, gloat as you should (Pordenone, a.k.a, EU YVR, weather forecast):

https://i.imgur.com/FU0KAVK.jpg

And Doug (a.k.a, Bobby McFerrin), the World is not “Don’t Worry Be Happy”.

There. And sorry if I beat up on you too much…not really ;-).

#79 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.19.19 at 10:28 am

“Nothing to see here, move along folks, nothing to see, nothing to see…..”

https://vancouversun.com/news/bc-politics/mike-smyth-dirty-cash-train-insider-ready-to-rock-b-c-money-laundering-inquiry/wcm/aff0b50d-b1fd-4919-8257-296c78e4e06b

#80 Dogman01 on 05.19.19 at 10:37 am

For those whom are inclined to being preppers:

2 Week prep is great, but prep for Society collapse = futile.

This may be old but will dis-abuse you of post-apocalyptic survival fantasy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lKELMR6wACw

#81 Drew on 05.19.19 at 11:05 am

Bitcoin.

Aside, there is a segment tonight on 60 minutes about bitcoin for those who watch. Have a nice long weekend.

#82 Westcdn on 05.19.19 at 11:11 am

Like my father, I love to tell stories although they are boring but entertain me. Most aren’t interested unless I am talking money or sex, fortunately you can always skip my comments.

I finally got around getting a family doctor. She is Nigerian, young and attractive. After going through her interview to see if I was a worthy patient, she asked how long ago I had a physical – oh, about 35 years. She arranged a battery of tests for me. The results come in and it says I am a type 2 diabetic. I am not worried but she points out complications come with the condition. Okay I say – I am a lousy patient and tempted to crawl off to die when hurt or ill. I mentioned that I had hurt my left rotor cuff and it wasn’t healing quick – probably because I did not baby it. So I complained it seems to take me longer to recover from injuries. Her response – so says the diabetic, it will heal – love her.

I had a premonition I was going to slip and fall. So I walked around on pins and needles for a few days. Then it happened – self-fulling? Breathing was a chore, never mind coughing yet I healed quick – go figure.

#83 Viking Preppers R US on 05.19.19 at 11:37 am

You will need barter booze when the SHTF…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YkiLLFgPJeM

#84 Connections! on 05.19.19 at 12:00 pm

#80 Dogman01 on 05.19.19 at 10:37 am

For those whom are inclined to being preppers:

2 Week prep is great, but prep for Society collapse = futile.

This may be old but will dis-abuse you of post-apocalyptic survival fantasy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lKELMR6wACw


That was a great show and book…. super stuff.

#85 Viking Preppers R US on 05.19.19 at 12:08 pm

Get prepped…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Nvt3uYHM-c

#86 TurnerNation on 05.19.19 at 1:16 pm

Global Lithium & Battery ETF, LIT.US shed almost 50% of its value within a year? The future?
Or try Stelco on the TSX huge pop on yesterday’s news.
The old economy ain’t yet dead.

#87 Italian Politics on 05.19.19 at 1:46 pm

No. One. Cares.

All it does is make the hand tired from the scrolling through posts.

Please, stop. Defensiveness = weakness.

#88 robert james on 05.19.19 at 2:05 pm

#79 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.19.19 at 10:28 am Oh Dear !! Someone will not be pleased ,, not mentioning any names..

#89 Debtslavecreator on 05.19.19 at 3:17 pm

While anything can happen, it’s more likely a major nuclear submarine accident causes the nuclear issue
Think about it – China and Russia and the uk and France between them have hundreds of nuclear subs with a lot more on the way
An accidental wrong dive, missile launch or malfunctioning mechanism or a piss drink / radicalized sailor could put humanity at risk
There’s no way to hedge against nuclear explosions
Very unlikely to have a nuclear war
On the other hand we are well advanced on a major historic economic and social reset which will go into full force 2022-2032
As a general strategy to survive major economic and political upheaval I would suggest people look into
-maintain a healthy amount of tangible and movable assets outside the system (very small amount of PM coins, good quality land close to fresh water sources and that can grow food or contain food growing cabins
-maintain a month of small denomination local currency
-maintain large amounts of filtered water, dry beans, rice, freeze dried food, solar chargers etc
-ensure your home is well insulated, and has good windows and roof , get 2/3 Security cameras
-consider buying 2-3 aero garden XL indoor food growing devices with a ample supply of seeds and water filters
-we will see new lows in mortgage and bond yields but by 2022 or sooner the global bond market will likely see sovereign defaults with sharply rising yields so consider a long fixed rate mortgage in early 2020 if you must maintain a good sized mortgage
Plan your budget assuming 40-50 % increases in prop tax, home ins, tents and at least triple for food by 2025
– we will survive and have another huge boom but the 2020s are not looking too good
-focus on skills and friends and having the ability to grow food and filter water – gold and silver are of minimal use in a true economic breakdown – rocks will not save you
-living in a small town close to farmers and a major body of water is best
-unless you are super rich, a ranch or rural property is NOT safe – it in fact will make you an easy target for hungry mobs

We will make it so don’t overdue prepping
A modest amount of prepping is sensible but no need to let it consume your life

#90 robert james on 05.19.19 at 4:08 pm

There will be no nuclear war.. Not going to happen !! Same dumb ass scare BS that we saw in the 60 s.. Why would anyone want to destroy a country or city for that matter for the North Korean goof or the American idiot Trump.. What would be the point ?? What good would another Chernobyl be to any attacking country ?? There are smart bombs and probably smarter now after “Desert Storm”.. People love to be scared and the media loves to work it…

#91 Willy H on 05.19.19 at 7:48 pm

The hedge against war is arable land free with minimal impact from nuclear fallout. Preferably land located a long way from large urban centres.