More Con, less stress?

Want less stress test? Vote Tory.

Crave a return of 30-year mortgages? Yep. Go Con.

Federal Conservative leader Andrew Scheer has revealed at least two planks of his party’s platform for the October federal election and there they be. He told  a room full of mortgage dudes that, if elected, his government’s likely to alter B-20 so it exempts people renewing their home loans.

And, actually, that’s a good thing. The stress test now requires newbies to prove they can handle mortgage payments 2% higher than what they’re actually obliged to pay. That’s the Darwinian natural selection process, marking for extinction those snowflakes who’d fold if the cost of money spiked in the next half-decade. No harm there. More protection for the lenders, and the market.

But the test also applies to renewers wanting to switch banks. Anyone shopping the market when their term is up, looking for a better rate or more flexible prepayment, must also pass the test – currently set at 5.34%. That makes little sense. By limiting choice (and competition) it locks people into one lender who’s no longer motivated to give the best deal. Not good. So Scheer would (correctly) exempt renewers.

As for those three-decade-long amortizations which the last Conservative government punted, they’d probably return. “The 30-year amortization is something we’re absolutely looking at,” he said pointedly. But this may be more about pandering to our real estate hormones than good small-c policy. The longer you take to pay off a loan, the lower the monthly payments, the more you can borrow and the greater the overall interest bill. But this also boosts house prices, as loan amounts increase. Since none of us apparently have any fiscal self-discipline left, long ams mean properties get dearer. Debt increases. Inflation’s pumped. More rate pressure.

Let’s hope young Andy is not just saying this stuff to get elected.

Wow. That would be a first.

$   $   $

When the boffo job numbers were published a few days ago, and reported here, most people didn’t believe them. No way, they cried, that over 100,000 paycheques were added in a single month. The economy’s circling the drain. It’s fake news!

Time will tell. But there are some interesting harbingers to note. Like RVs.

This is the time of year many Canadians lose their minds and start shopping for 18,000-pound road tanks with toilets, beds and the carbon footprint of a brontosaurus. They get excited, take one trip to Cape Breton or Utah, then park the beast in the driveway, annoying the neighbours until the rubber disintegrates and they sell for a dime on the dollar. It’s great fun. Anyway, blog dog Michael is involved in the industry, and sends along this note:

Year-over-year Canadian motorhome sales tumbled 53% for the first three months of 2019, according to the latest report from Statistical Surveys Inc. Class A registrations fell 37.3% for the three months. In the Class C segment, sales declined 58.5% through March.

An indication of economic health? Or just a reflection of the die-off of Boomers who love to buy these things, then drive them at 40 km/hour in eighty-click zones? In any case, the employment numbers are a head-scratcher. “While we are not going to complain about the jobs numbers of late,” say the economists at TD, “their strength is a bit of a mystery when other economic indicators paint a more modest picture of the Canadian economy.”

Others swear Ottawa’s numbers are as entirely reliable as those from the real estate board.

$    $   $

Hamid writes:

My question to you is what advice would you give someone in their early 20’s, completed a diploma in computing systems and plans to do the bachelors degree part time while working.  Vancouver is an unattainable, unattractive market for the average person. I grew up thinking it’s the best place in the world but now I wonder if I can continue to live here. What real estate tips would you offer to someone in my generation? Is a not so nice but affordable condo a good investment opportunity? Our economy right now is pretty sluggish and it doesn’t matter who becomes the next PM it looks like we’re going to see at best something in the 1.1-1.3% economic growth range. Do you think this will cause a major housing collapse in the next 3-5 years? Even in my suburb of Port Coquitlam townhouses cost 600-700k with a detached home practically 850k and above and more likely above 1 million? I would love to hear your thoughts on these matters and any other real estate and investment tips and tricks that you may have for people in their early 20’s.

None. Give it up. Don’t buy a crappy PoCo condo just to be in real estate, as there’s no guarantee of profit and a great potential for loss. The Vancouver market is hurtling towards earth for all the reasons spelled out here, and the bottom is far off. Stay away, Hamid.

If you want cheap property with a chance of appreciation, go to Calgary. Get a hat. Big belt buckle. Learn to swagger. Eat beef. Buy downtown. Hurry.

150 comments ↓

#1 Phylis on 05.14.19 at 4:10 pm

Phyrst!

#2 Napolean Dynamite on 05.14.19 at 4:11 pm

Vancouver is a tough place. To survive these days you need skills. You know, like nunchuck skills, bo hunting skills, computer hacking skills. Girls only like guys who have great skills.

#3 Captain Uppa on 05.14.19 at 4:14 pm

B20 on renewals made no sense to me as well.

I am trying to remember what you said about downpayments, Garth. I am in a position to do 20% which is the consensus good move. But I remember you mentioned something about putting less down. A quick reminder would be mucho appreciado.

#4 tccontrarian on 05.14.19 at 4:19 pm

#27 Shawn on 05.13.19 at 6:18 pm

$CAD is likely to retest the 2002 lows.

/////////////////////

So why are the commercial traders in a long:short ratio of about 2:1?
CAD follows oil/commodities, and those are coming off a bottom.

Careful out there!

TCC

#5 NotLegalAdvice on 05.14.19 at 4:26 pm

What site can I use to look at Downtown Calgary properties?

#6 Sebee on 05.14.19 at 4:38 pm

So early today Garth. Did your day start at 4:57am for some reason? Then just as you fell back asleep…

I too fear we’ll have a lot of readers fall asleep early before they get a chance to visit today. See if your clicks data today shows impact of Sleepless in Ontario.

#7 Cazador on 05.14.19 at 4:55 pm

#5 NotLegalAdvice on 05.14.19 at 4:26 pm
What site can I use to look at Downtown Calgary properties?

Start with realtor.ca

#8 Tater on 05.14.19 at 4:58 pm

#4 tccontrarian on 05.14.19 at 4:19 pm
#27 Shawn on 05.13.19 at 6:18 pm

$CAD is likely to retest the 2002 lows.

/////////////////////

So why are the commercial traders in a long:short ratio of about 2:1?
CAD follows oil/commodities, and those are coming off a bottom.

Careful out there!

TCC
————————————————————–
Why would you look at commercial traders? They are hedgers, not speculators. And why would you bother looking at futures data? That market is tiny vs the proper FX markets.

And the proper FX market really isn’t anticipating any big moves. Vol, riskies and flys are pretty much the lowest I can remember them. Makes it a very cheap environment to buy options, but that’s been true for the last 3 or 4 years. And it keeps getting cheaper, so without a catalyst, you can’t just fill your boots and wait.

#9 Doug on 05.14.19 at 4:58 pm

RV Sales only look poor when comparing YoY as 2018 was a huge bubble in the industry

#10 Shawn Allen on 05.14.19 at 5:01 pm

Trip to Cape Breton you say?

Skip the Motor Home and stay at the Clansman Motel North Sydney.

http://www.clansmanmotel.com/

Down-home hospitality in every respect.

Yes, I am closely related to the owners but maybe Garth will allow this little advertisement given that the place is both dog and motorcycle friendly!

#11 Shawn Allen on 05.14.19 at 5:08 pm

#4 tccontrarian on 05.14.19 at 4:19 pm responded to a different Shawn:

#27 Shawn on 05.13.19 at 6:18 pm

$CAD is likely to retest the 2002 lows.

/////////////////////

So why are the commercial traders in a long:short ratio of about 2:1?

***********************************
Well then the speculators must be on the other side with a 1:2 ratio since the market is always in balance. (You can’t bet on the dollar without someone to take the other side of the bet, or even hedge without a counter party)

I don’t claim much knowledge on this but I understand commercial traders merely look to hedge as opposed to bet? The speculators on the other side are the gamblers.

It’s not possible to guess the direction of the dollar from such things. If it were, Smoking Man would not have pretty much gone bust as he documented on this blog.

#12 Bob Dog on 05.14.19 at 5:09 pm

With stellar job numbers won’t the interest rates be returning to normal? 5-8% of a 5 year fixed? Why should the stress test not apply to people buying even bigger homes.

Anyone working in tech should leave Canada. At least temporarily. When the government of BC is bragging to Amazon that we have the lowest payed tech workers in North America it’s time to pack your bags.

Also tech companies in the US are run by people with degrees in Computer Science. Tech companies in Canada are run by people with an MBA who equate The Art of Computer Programming to assembly line work at GM Oshawa.

#13 jess on 05.14.19 at 5:11 pm

Robert Hogue Senior Economist
CANADA’S HOUSING MARKETOctober 17, 2017As expected, OSFI tightens rules for non-insured mortgages

Other revisions to the B-20 guideline include more stringent requirements for the measurement of loan-to-value (LTV) ratios and more explicit restrictions on co-lending arrangements. We expect minimal impact on the housing market from these other changes

http://www.rbc.com/economics/economic-reports/pdf/canadian-housing/housing_OSFI_Oct2017.pdf

=

As fewer loans are given to highly indebted borrowers, a larger share of mortgages is now concentrated around LTI ratios between 250 per cent and 450 per cent. Mortgages with an LTI just below 450 per cent are still relatively risky and likely include borrowers obliged to take smaller loans than they would have obtained without a stress test. At the same time, the revised Guideline B-20 has not eliminated high-LTI loans altogether, since lenders can apply other criteria to extend such mortgages, including the applicant’s housing equity and financial assets.2

https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2018/11/staff-analytical-note-2018-35/

#14 Phil on 05.14.19 at 5:11 pm

I most certainly wouldn’t buy downtown Calgary in the over saturated condo market. It is the detached 2 story homes that are collapsing here and there is a large supply. Bungalows are very popular and a little more rare to find.

#15 Linda on 05.14.19 at 5:17 pm

Aw, the dog of the day is catching a rainbow:)

RV’s. I’ve never been a fan myself. Could be this is something that will die off as the Boomers do. The drop in sales might be a combination of factors – aging demographic, higher gas costs etc. Like dandelions they pop up in spring & disappear in autumn. I’m just guessing they are not suitable to live in year round, or maybe people would start buying them instead of condos. Given the various condo construction horror stories buying an RV might be the way to go & hey, that takes care of the mobility issue to boot. Just drive to where the work is, you’ve already got a place to live.

#16 Jason on 05.14.19 at 5:26 pm

I don’t disagree that a 30 year amortization costs more in interest charges compared to 25 year. But you can say the same about 25 years and 20 years and on and on. So what is the right number? Why is 25 years the best choice?

#17 Yukon Elvis on 05.14.19 at 5:28 pm

…….and inflation is only 2%. Clap like you were in a strip club.

#18 Lead Paint on 05.14.19 at 5:33 pm

Those following the advice of Dolce Vita be warned, you cannot find peanut butter in grocery stores in Italy. Think carefully about exactly how you want to spend your retirement. I’m currently in Naples and see a lot of malcontent old people wandering around aimlessly with jars of honey.

#19 Darts on 05.14.19 at 5:35 pm

I’m pretty sure the 100,000 plus job gain was just every real estate agent in the GTA downloading uber and lift.

#20 Edwardo on 05.14.19 at 5:36 pm

Tunnel Mountain campground in Banff disputes your supposition that rv’s are becoming less popular…hundreds of rented class C jobs full of Euro’s.

Oh…and mine of course…paid for.

#21 jess on 05.14.19 at 5:43 pm

hey mr. ford : universal rent controls spreading

new york:
“The housing crisis is like a sinking ship with many holes in it. You can’t just plug one hole to stay afloat. These nine bills work together to constitute universal rent control and to protect all tenants.”

https://theintercept.com/2019/05/14/universal-rent-control-bill-new-york-salazar/

The nine bills include measures to eliminate renovation bonuses for landlords, disallow rent decontrol for vacant apartments, and prevent rent hikes for existing tenants paying preferential rents (rents that are less than the legal maximum, but vulnerable to major hikes when leases are renewed). These reforms would close a number of loopholes landlords have used to work around already weakened rent regulation, while protecting tenants already in rent-stabilized housing

other states underway in Colorado, Illinois, and Washington state.
=
Oregon just enacted statewide rent control—and it could be a model for the country

“It’s the most immediate and effective way to stop displacement and gentrification at scale.”
By Alissa [email protected] Mar 8, 2019, 1:21pm EST
https://www.curbed.com/2019/3/8/18245307/rent-control-oregon-housing-crisis

#22 Dave on 05.14.19 at 5:48 pm

In downtown Calgary….residential or commercial?

#23 Communist CONservatives on 05.14.19 at 5:52 pm

CONservatives are the biggest socialists for the rich. The communist conservatives want to use taxpayer money to backstop fraudulent risky mortgages that banks wouldnt touch with a 10 foot pole if it was their capital at risk. Communist for the rich Conservatives are for the lazy parasites of society. They are realtors , bankers and lenders. They are the most useless and anti free markets people of society. I hate communist conservatives.

#24 Communist CONservatives on 05.14.19 at 5:56 pm

If the lazy parasites communist CONservatives want t
No B-20 that is fine but they should DEMAND the shut down of CMHC. They always hate government interference but since it helps those useless communists they dont say boo about CMHC. Proving CONservatives are nothing but CON artists and SHYSTERS who hate the free market but love communism for the rich.

#25 Ed Tachem on 05.14.19 at 6:00 pm

DELETED

#26 Smoking Man on 05.14.19 at 6:04 pm

When the boffo job numbers were published a few days ago, and reported here, most people didn’t believe them. No way, they cried, that over 100,000 paycheques were added in a single month. The economy’s circling the drain. It’s fake news!
….

T2 will do anything including obstruction of justice to satisfy his masters at UN. The end justifies the means with these VILLANS.

0 GDP = JOB NUMBERS WERE FUDGED for October election.

#27 Brian on 05.14.19 at 6:06 pm

Oh – don’t get too excited about the jobs report – I could be mistaken but I believe the margin of error is 40,000
hahaha yea much cheaper that way

#28 Dolce Vita on 05.14.19 at 6:17 pm

#18 Lead Paint

Firstly, THAT was good…well close.

Secondly, we have many types of honey here where the bees are fed almost exclusively from specific flowers. And our honey does not go to sugar mush like Canadian honey does, it keeps for months and months (what happens Canada when you feed honey bees GMO flowers + RoundUp).

Italian honey – none of these you can get in Canada (poor food wasteland cuisine Canadesi, Québec the exception):

ACACIA (SO good)

SULLA, light, I use a few drops in Bechemel when making Nidi di Rondine (tip from a Chef in Orvieto last summer):

https://ricette.giallozafferano.it/Nidi-di-rondine.html

…AND on, and on, and on.

Google this Search term to find out the different honey varieties that we have:

tipi di miele in italia

And why on God’s Green Earth would anyone eat that bitter spread “peanut butter” that makes kids sick when the World loves Nutella instead (when’s the last time you saw food fights over peanut butter in culinary astute France…thought so):

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jan/26/ce-nest-pas-normal-french-shoppers-bra-over-discounted-nutella

Besides, the Neapolitan’s will tell tourists anything they want to hear just to keep them happy.

We do not want to slip back into recession. Keep spending here in Italia Canada, we love you (the latter we mean).

But on the topic of food in Italia…please, “STAI ZITTO”.

#29 active on 05.14.19 at 6:19 pm

Hamid is in his early 20’s, still going through school, and ALREADY thinking about real-estate? LOL…game over for this guy.

#30 Sail away on 05.14.19 at 6:20 pm

If there’s ever been a case favouring rent vs. buy, it has to be motorhomes with Van/GTO real estate a close second.

Usually the same for boats, unless you plan to sail across oceans. Then you need your own.

#31 Trumpocalypse2019 on 05.14.19 at 6:21 pm

Don’t buy a condo, a bunker is a better idea. Or investing in canned goods and a dehydrator.

And a cheap used RV with a big store of fuel may actually be a wise option in very short order. Park it well outside of major urban centers.

As I have predicted, Trump is now moving towards war with Iran, a perfect distraction from his slow-motion Mueller implosion.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/13/world/middleeast/us-military-plans-iran.html

PREPARE.

#32 Long Branch Apprentice on 05.14.19 at 6:35 pm

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/temporary-workers-employment-1.5135310

All Mad Max has to do to win the election is trigger Millennial’s pent up rage with the system.

The Liberals can only stick their fingers in the dyke of societal pressures for so long.

If it keeps on raining…

PS My new past time is taunting people who went to grad school and are now buried beneath a mountain of debt, with little to no prospects for jobs that pay above minimum. This is what they get for being gullible and susceptible to brainwashing. The reward for being good at school, is, wait for it, more school!

Cue the deranged people defending being in school for 6-10 yrs for a useless piece of paper and some letters after their name.

#33 Dolce Vita on 05.14.19 at 6:37 pm

“Or just a reflection of the die-off of Boomers…”

Still killing myself laughing. I love the way you slipped in that nugget of wisdom in between cold hard facts and figures. TOO funny.

LOOK IT KNUCKLE HEAD PEOPLE, the job numbers were even higher without statistical massaging and to be EXPECTED.

Retail Trade peaks in May/June from yearly low and loveless February.

Canadian business hires in ADVANCE and in ANTICIPATION of all the Canadian beavers emerging from their Winter dens (or the drenched in La La Land) and spending their butts off for you name it (as said, weddings, gardening, appliances, etc., etc.).

Wait and see if Canadian business jumped the gun and guessed wrong in light of recent GDP numbers. Watch for these StatCan reports in the next 2 weeks or so to determine if they guessed correctly or not:

Retail Trade for March – May 22nd
GDP for March – May 31st

From the above 2 you will have an idea how Consumer Spending, 60% of GDP, and GDP itself is going in light of Garth’s Boomer Die Off Theory (sorry could not resist).

If Canadian business guessed wrong, watch Full-time employment drop and Part-time employment increase or worse, both drop.

#34 TS on 05.14.19 at 6:46 pm

You guys that are lining up to buy downtown Cowtown real estate on Garth’s hot tip, I got some ice in Nunavut and some sand in the Sahara that I could throw in. 30% of all the square footage in downtown Calgary is unoccupied. Housing today costs less in nominal terms than in 2007. Albertans are the most indebted individuals in Canada with the highest rate of personal bankruptcies. Calgary’s unemployment rate is the highest in the whole country. And yet Calgary is the 5th most expensive major Canadian housing market.

Good luck with that.

Buy when there’s blood. – Garth

#35 Nonplused on 05.14.19 at 6:53 pm

Why should Hamid buy in Calgary? Prices in Calgary haven’t really gone anywhere since 2007, up a little but in the same range. That’s 12 years of very modest increases. Unless Kenney can get the province working again, I don’t see that changing. Downtown Calgary is still running near 30% vacancy rates, which is mind boggling. We need pipelines!

However he’s probably better off here than in Vancouver even as a renter. Prices are still high, but your dollars go a lot farther than they do in Vancouver. A nice modern bungalow on 2 acres and 30 minutes from downtown can be had for less than a million. A decent inner-city bungalow can be had for around $500,000. It’s night and day compared to Vancouver.

———-

Let’s hope that Scheer can manage to get elected and scrape the national carbon tax as fast as Kenney is scrapping the Alberta carbon tax. Carbon taxes are not environmental policy, they are revenue policy, and we already have the HST doing the exact same thing. If they really want to raise consumption taxes, raising the HST would do the same thing with a lot less paperwork. There is no need for 2 consumption taxes. Aside from the very little amount of energy we get from renewables and nuclear, the price of everything you buy including food is a reflection of the amount of carbon based energy that went into making it plus labor. But the labor component just uses that money to go out and buy more carbon based products.

Let’s say you go out to the Keg and buy a nice juicy steak. Sure, some of the energy used to produce that steak came in the form of sunlight growing hay, but very little. Most of it came in the form of fertilizer, pesticides, diesel for the tractors and the trucks, power for the processing plant, space heating of the processing plant and the restaurant, refrigeration, air conditioning, and the fuels and products the employees at all stages need to get to work and fund their lives. It’s mostly all carbon based. So raising the HST was all they needed to do to curtail consumption and increase revenues.

But whether the tax increase is a carbon tax or raising the HST it has no affect on aggregate demand. All that happens is instead of you going out to the Keg for a steak twice a year, you can only afford to go once and a newly created government employee in charge of administering the carbon tax gets to eat your other steak. It’s just more socialism in the form of redundant government jobs that don’t produce any real wealth. The total carbon footprint will be the same.

The only way we have at present to reduce a nation’s carbon footprint is to collapse that nation’s economy. The Soviet Union is a good example. When it collapsed, the carbon footprint went way down. Or look at China; its economic rise has been hand in hand with an enormous rise in carbon emissions, and they have no plans to stop here.

Unfortunately, whether or not carbon emissions are going to cause a global catastrophe down the road, the situation is a “tragedy of the commons”. Unless all users can be convinced to act in unison, nothing can be done to avert the failure of the system.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tragedy_of_the_commons

#36 Tim on 05.14.19 at 6:54 pm

The advice I’d give to a person thinking of staying in Vancouver is: don’t…unless you’ve won the housing lottery by buying 5 years ago or more, the time when Garth was advising people not to buy. It is still cheaper to rent and probably better to move elsewhere unless you make over $100/year

#37 old dinosaur on 05.14.19 at 6:55 pm

Heard a good bit of gossip news today from a federal employee friend in Ottawa. It’s the talk of the water cooler crowd in Ottawa today.

Trudeau isn’t calling an election on Oct 19
He’s delaying to 2020.
Not sure how that would work?
Any thought?

Emergency Powers??? Wouldn’t surprise me he’d do a Venezuelan necktie trick like that

#38 dr talc on 05.14.19 at 6:58 pm

Vote Sheer, vote T2, green, NDP, whoever. IT MAKES ZERO DIFFERENCE.
Because:
Jeremy Rudin remains, ‘appointed’ for 7 years.
An unelected despot.

#39 Armpit on 05.14.19 at 6:59 pm

RV’s may become the new single dwelling homes.

#40 Tim on 05.14.19 at 7:00 pm

Don’t buy in downtown Calgary, it has to be one of the most unpleasant city centres of any major city. Also there is a surplus of condos for sale and for rent.

#41 Dazed and CONfused on 05.14.19 at 7:06 pm

“……The longer you take to pay off a loan, the lower the monthly payments, the more you can borrow and the greater the overall interest bill. But this also boosts house prices, as loan amounts increase…….”
_______________________________________

higher interest AND higher housing prices?

What Canadian wouldn’t vote Conservative for that?
(insert sarcasm).

As always with Conservatives, never underestimate the power of both the Canadian Bankers Association and the Canadian Real Estate Association lobbyists to advance their own financial interests ahead of the interests of the average financially illiterate working Canadian.

#42 Tater on 05.14.19 at 7:08 pm

#11 Shawn Allen on 05.14.19 at 5:08 pm
#4 tccontrarian on 05.14.19 at 4:19 pm responded to a different Shawn:

#27 Shawn on 05.13.19 at 6:18 pm

$CAD is likely to retest the 2002 lows.

/////////////////////

So why are the commercial traders in a long:short ratio of about 2:1?

***********************************
Well then the speculators must be on the other side with a 1:2 ratio since the market is always in balance. (You can’t bet on the dollar without someone to take the other side of the bet, or even hedge without a counter party)

I don’t claim much knowledge on this but I understand commercial traders merely look to hedge as opposed to bet? The speculators on the other side are the gamblers.

It’s not possible to guess the direction of the dollar from such things. If it were, Smoking Man would not have pretty much gone bust as he documented on this blog.
———————————

The spec info is just as useless. The large spec users also have access to the interbank market and can offset futures positions there.

#43 Tater on 05.14.19 at 7:11 pm

#26 Smoking Man on 05.14.19 at 6:04 pm
When the boffo job numbers were published a few days ago, and reported here, most people didn’t believe them. No way, they cried, that over 100,000 paycheques were added in a single month. The economy’s circling the drain. It’s fake news!
….

T2 will do anything including obstruction of justice to satisfy his masters at UN. The end justifies the means with these VILLANS.

0 GDP = JOB NUMBERS WERE FUDGED for October election.
——————————-
Because in October the voting public will have a jobs report from May top of mind.

#44 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.14.19 at 7:14 pm

@#24 Confused Communist Conservative
“If the lazy parasites communist CONservatives ….”
*******

Do the Conservative communists stand in line waiting for financial handouts before or after the NDP communists or the Liberal communists?

#45 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.14.19 at 7:18 pm

@#18 Lead Paint
“I’m currently in Naples and see a lot of malcontent old people wandering around aimlessly with jars of honey.”

++++++
If they have empty jars of vegemite….they’re probably Auzzies.

#46 akashic record on 05.14.19 at 7:28 pm

That’s the Darwinian natural selection process, marking for extinction those snowflakes who’d fold if the cost of money spiked in the next half-decade. No harm there. More protection for the lenders, and the market.

As poetic as it can get.

Government regulation as Darwinian selection process for more protection for the lenders, and the market, in case clueless, moneyless snowflakes somehow managed to outsmart them into fake consensual lending.

I was thinking something grand, too, when I had no choice but wake a bit early. Thank G_d, everyone is so safe, as never before.

#47 jess on 05.14.19 at 7:30 pm

the big picture aiding and abetting
=====================

https://apps.npr.org/white-lies/

Rev. Clark Olsen Interviewed in March 1965 by WATV

“I did look around in time to see one man with some kind of a stick or a pipe or a club swing this, this stick, uh, violently at Jim Reeb. And he swung this stick and it hit Jim on the side of the head. And Jim immediately fell to the pavement on his back.”

In 1965, the Rev. James Reeb was murdered in Selma, Ala. Three men were tried and acquitted, but no one was ever held to account. Fifty years later, two journalists from Alabama return to the city where it happened, expose the lies that kept the murder from being solved and uncover a story about guilt and memory that says as much about America today as it does about the past.

White Lies is a serialized story told over 7 episodes. It publishes on Tuesdays, beginning May 14.
This is the story of a murder at the center of the civil rights movement and the lies that kept it from being solved. It’s an event that rippled far beyond the time and place where it happened, sparking national outrage and galvanizing support for one of the most significant laws of the 20th century. This narrative uses audio and documents recorded and printed in 1965. Some images may be disturbing. We’ve chosen not to censor offensive language.More than 50 years after the attack, NPR returned to Selma. We wanted to know why the truth about this murder had been so obscured and why so many people were intent on keeping it that way.That lie took root in 1965.When NPR returned to investigate the case more than 50 years later, we found that the lie was still alive.
To this day, no one has ever been held accountable for Reeb’s murder.

To hear how we uncovered the lies and finally exposed the truth, listen to the White Lies podcast

========
Elmer Cook, William Stanley Hoggle and Namon O’Neal Hoggle went on trial for Reeb’s murder in December 1965.
Blanchard McLeod, who had been named in a Department of Justice lawsuit for suppressing attempts by African Americans to register to vote, headed up the prosecution.He openly speculated that a conviction was unlikely, telling reporters he had a weak case against the defendants.

The defense team lined up 150 witnesses in support of the defendants

The all-white, all-male jury deliberated for 97 minutes before finding the defendants not guilty.

Clark Olsen and Orloff Miller were the only witnesses who testified for the prosecution. Both ministers identified Elmer Cook as one of the attackers.

And in his closing argument, the defense attorney, Joe Pilcher, presented a theory: that the injuries Reeb sustained when he was attacked outside the Silver Moon weren’t enough to kill him.

A few weeks after the trial, Sol Tepper, a leader of Selma’s all-white Citizens Council and an outspoken segregationist, distributed a seven-page letter amplifying Pilcher’s closing argument. The letter promulgated the theory that the true villain was the civil rights movement itself.Tepper crafted it to absolve Reeb’s attackers and the people who lied to protect them.

#48 Linda on 05.14.19 at 7:34 pm

#16 ‘Jason’ – I’m not quite sure if your post is meant the way it written, but to answer your question the best choice depends on just what the purchaser wants. If they do not wish to pay the purchase price of the property more than twice over then they need to pay off the loan in 15 years or less. A general rule of thumb for amortization periods as follows:

15 years = original purchase price times 2 = for every dollar you borrow, you pay two back
20 years = original purchase price times 3
25 years = original purchase price times 5

Now, this general rule applied with ‘normal’ interest rates. The uber low rates of recent times may have skewed that rule somewhat. I think it may be safe to suggest that the much higher purchase prices of housing offsets any advantage lower interest rates may have had.

Obviously if a 25 year amortization term results in a 5 to 1 repayment then 30 years would be even more. I believe it could be as much as 7 to 1. So if you borrowed one million you would have paid back seven million before the mortgage was retired & the property actually was owned by you or your heirs instead of the bank. Have to say that does not sound like a financial win to me.

#49 Earlybird on 05.14.19 at 7:42 pm

Ugh…downtown Calgary is getting REALLY ugly. Lots of crime, drugs,empty buildings etc…not a place to live at all. Lots of competition for jobs, hundreds of applicant for all spectrum’s of employment…still competing with thousands of O&G workers! You get what you pay for…

#50 will on 05.14.19 at 7:55 pm

“then park the beast in the driveway, annoying the neighbours until the rubber disintegrates”

Lolol. My sister has a next door neighbor like that. That POS has been in the driveway for at least 10yrs rusting away on the driveway.

#51 mitzerboyakaQueencitykidd on 05.14.19 at 7:56 pm

Maybe more fake news but who’s to say

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2019/05/14/in-trade-war-china-carpet-bombs-trump-supporters/

#52 Ronaldo on 05.14.19 at 8:00 pm

Methinks that there may have been an error in the placement of the decimal for the jobs numbers. Maybe 10,000 is the more likely. Anxious to see next months jobs numbers. As for the drop in motorhomes sales it’s not surprising as driving by the numerous dealerships here on the island, the yards are bloating with them. Shades of the 80s.

#53 will on 05.14.19 at 8:02 pm

#24

“CONservatives are nothing but CON artists and SHYSTERS who hate the free market but love communism for the rich.”

Keep going! You are interesting!

#54 Flop... on 05.14.19 at 8:03 pm

I thought up a good comparison to show just how much the mighty Westside of Vancouver has fallen after a detached house in Marpole just sold for 1.16 million, breaking a new barrier on the way down.

As I showed last night…

This heap of crap on the Westside just went for 1.16.

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/849-west-67th-avenue

Someone just paid more (1.17) for this heap of crap on much derided Knight Street on the lowly Eastside.

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/5908-knight-street

Absolutely annihilation of the rule book for the last 15 years.

She ain’t pretty, she just looks that way…

M44BC

#55 Flop... on 05.14.19 at 8:04 pm

I thought up a good comparison to show just how much the mighty Westside of Vancouver has fallen after a house in Marpole just sold for 1.16 million, breaking a new barrier on the way down.

As I showed last night…

This heap of crap on the Westside just went for 1.16.

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/849-west-67th-avenue

Someone just paid more (1.17) for this heap of crap on much derided Knight Street on the lowly Eastside.

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/5908-knight-street

Absolutely annihilation of the rule book for the last 15 years.

She ain’t pretty, she just looks that way…

M44BC

#56 Flop... on 05.14.19 at 8:04 pm

I thought up a good comparison to show just how much the mighty Westside of Vancouver has fallen after a house in Marpole just sold for 1.16 million, breaking a new barrier on the way down.

As I showed last night…

This heap of crap on the Westside just went for 1.16.

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/849-west-67th-avenue

Someone just paid more (1.17) for this heap of crap on much derided Knight Street on the lowly Eastside.

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/5908-knight-street

Absolutely annihilation of the rule book for the last 15 years.

She ain’t pretty, she just looks that way…

M44BC

#57 Flop... on 05.14.19 at 8:11 pm

What happened?

You want to make sure everyone reads it…

M44BC

#58 Not 1st on 05.14.19 at 8:15 pm

Yes Hamid move to Calgary. Your home and wages will get an immediate 30% increase when Ab converts to trump bucks. And best of all we will erect a no fly zone for Trudeau and his tax payer party jet.

#59 akashic record on 05.14.19 at 8:20 pm

#54 Flop…
#55 Flop…
#56 Flop…

Roger that.

#60 gfd on 05.14.19 at 8:21 pm

When the boffo job numbers were published a few days ago, and reported here, most people didn’t believe them. No way, they cried, that over 100,000 paycheques were added in a single month. The economy’s circling the drain. It’s fake news!
=====================================

I think we shall witness 100,000+/- job number increases every month right until October.

#61 Edward Bear on 05.14.19 at 8:35 pm

Old oilfield services guy here. Assessed prices are off on average SFH and condos.
Cowtown in springtime is like any city, some sketchy people come out of the woodwork or arrive somehow now that Greyhound is kaput. When it booms, assorted folks from around the nation come along with many more hard working, smart folks than riff-raff. A job slump coupled with cheap opiates and meth and Rural Alberta seems to be more infested with the low end desperate yet remarkably organized crims breaking in and stealing anything that isn’t bolted down on farms, ranches businesses and acreages. Vehicle and equipment theft Is prevalent. This stuff and lots if it has to be going somewhere! Downtown parking lots are not full nor are many office towers. Panhandlers at intersections ply their usual trade. The same wanderers from boom times still shamble around.
Municipal infrastructure is being built. High end luxo car shops are sprouting in new spiffy showrooms so someone is buying ( leasing) Lambos, Rollers and Ferraris. Retail, commercial residential rental and condo commercial projects are going up nonstop stickbuilt low and some planned long ago highrises. Densification in inner city continues apace with semis and tri-plexes appear to be selling though not sure what these folks actually do, but there is business beyond our industry to be sure. Gerry Schwartz & his people must seem to think things will pick ,up buying Westjet for 5 billion bucks.
Few in my age cohort are working anymore and not expe cting any high day rate miracle contracts. UCP Premier or not!

#62 Zealous on 05.14.19 at 8:43 pm

Agreed, when Trudeau gets the boot Calgary will boom boom boom. I suspect the turnaround time will be neck snapping. The AB economy has only been neutered by the control of Dippers and Liberals by American and EU “Energy Carpet Baggers) , those who are using the climate change farce to make billions off the “Green Boondoggles”. It’s been proven that Trudeau and the Dippers received direct funding, activist support and plotting by numerous outside groups like Rockefellers and George Soros. The former capitalizing on Green subsidies and the latter who mounted a theee Year attack on PM Harper because Harper told the UN Mass Migration afcvocates to bugger off. Trudeau on the other hand had no such scruples and tax records show millions flowing out of the government coffers only to be required back into Trudeaus advocacy for special interests.

Now seriously, who thinks the BOC is so stupid as to not know what the hell is going on?

https://vancouversun.com/news/economy/the-bank-of-canada-is-underestimating-the-housing-slump-capital-economics-warns/wcm/3e9d837c-34ed-484b-8545-b91422b15a1e

It appears to me and the fence post that politics are behind a real estate and general economic meltdown when the BOC publishes jobs numbers that make zero sense to Main St. Poloz doesn’t pass the smell test and that is a disservice to all Canadians.

#63 Yves Prevost on 05.14.19 at 8:47 pm

Small correction: if you transfer (switch) your mortgage from one bank to another you can qualify based on the old standards and do not have to use the stress test.

#64 Buy Calgary?? on 05.14.19 at 8:53 pm

Unemployment in cow-town is still quite high, unless you want to be a security guard. Due to the recent rise in crime rates lots of Businesses now have security guards.

#65 Shawn Allen on 05.14.19 at 8:56 pm

Delay the October Federal Election?

#37 old dinosaur on 05.14.19 at 6:55 pm said:

Heard a good bit of gossip news today from a federal employee friend in Ottawa. It’s the talk of the water cooler crowd in Ottawa today.

Trudeau isn’t calling an election on Oct 19
He’s delaying to 2020.

*********************************
Well, the legal limit for both provincial and federal was I believe “always” five years but some said (i.e. opposition parties) there was a “tradition” of calling the election by about four years.

I believe Alberta and feds may have passed legislation to go after four years. In the feds case it was a fixed date? But that legislation can easily be over-turned by a majority government I suspect.

If he can possibly change the date, why would Trudeau call an election in October if he was fairly sure he would lose? He might call Rachel Notley for advice.

Fixed election dates turn into (too) long campaigns. Better to keep the opposition guessing and then call a snap election.

#66 gfd on 05.14.19 at 9:00 pm

BUSINESS
05/14/2019 08:33 EDT | Updated 12 hours ago

Canadian Bankruptcies Jump At Fastest Pace Since Financial Crisis
Research suggests Canadians are under immense social pressure to spend money, and that’s driving debt.

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2019/05/14/canadian-bankruptcies-increase_a_23725560/?spot_im_comment_id=sp_d0oLykNf_amp-23725560_c_A0cJYJ&spot_im_highlight_immediate=true

#67 tccontrarian on 05.14.19 at 9:12 pm

#8 Tater on 05.14.19 at 4:58 pm

#4 tccontrarian on 05.14.19 at 4:19 pm
#27 Shawn on 05.13.19 at 6:18 pm

$CAD is likely to retest the 2002 lows.

/////////////////////

So why are the commercial traders in a long:short ratio of about 2:1?
CAD follows oil/commodities, and those are coming off a bottom.

Careful out there!

TCC
————————————————————–
Why would you look at commercial traders? They are hedgers, not speculators. And why would you bother looking at futures data? That market is tiny vs the proper FX markets.
——————————-

I consider commercials as the most knowledgeable in the fundamentals of whatever it is they’re trading – currencies included. So, when ‘hedgers’ aren’t worried much about hedging, for me it’s a vote of confidence that prices aren’t likely go against their positioning. This becomes more relevant when they reach extreme levels (historically). Not an exact science to be sure – just one of the indicators that I monitor.

TCC

#68 Flop... on 05.14.19 at 9:25 pm

As Clint Eastwood once said.

Is this my second or forth post?

Well, to tell you the truth, in all this excitement, I’ve kinda lost track myself. But being this is a .44 Magnum, the most powerful handgun in the world, and would blow your head clean off, you’ve got to ask yourself one question: ‘Do I feel lucky?’ Well, do you, punk…

M44BC

“Visualizing The National Debt Boom in the Last Few Years.

In February 2019, the national debt hit an eye-popping $22 trillion. The projected annual deficit for this year alone is almost $1.1 trillion — that’s more than the GDP of Singapore, Norway, and New Zealand combined.

Recently, The Balance published an article noting major milestones in the accumulation of national debt, using data from the ”U.S. Debt to the Penny” report from the United States Department of the Treasury. We used the information compiled by The Balance to create our latest visualization, which shows how much the national debt has grown since 1934. Prior to 1996, the visualization only uses years but not the exact dates because debt levels are not available for each day. Each box in the visualization is equal to $1 trillion.

In 1934, the national debt was only $25 billion. It began increasing rapidly in the 1980s, reaching $1 trillion in 1982 and ballooning throughout the 1990s and 2000s.

Just as with household debt, the national debt increases when spending outpaces revenue. In the case of the government, the majority of revenue comes from taxes levied on personal and corporate income. To amass more funds (which results in accruing debt), the federal government issues treasury bills, notes, and bonds to creditors.

The national debt is composed of two main categories: intragovernmental debt and debt held by the public. Intragovernmental debt is held by federal agencies, such as the Social Security Trust Fund and Medicare. For debt held by the public, the creditors are individuals, corporations, state or local governments, Federal Reserve Banks, foreign governments, and other entities outside the United States government. About two-thirds of the national debt is classified as debt held by the public.

Acquiring too much debt can have a negative effect on a number of economic factors, including slower economic growth, lower stock market returns, and decreased confidence in the U.S. government’s ability to repay its debt. Currently, the debt-to-GDP ratio in the U.S. is 105%, above the World Bank’s recommendation of 77%. The higher the ratio, the greater the risk of default. This makes it more imperative than ever to rein in the national debt and get the government’s “checkbook” under control”

13 May 2019

Visualization

https://howmuch.net/articles/national-debt-of-the-united-states

#69 Communist Conservatives on 05.14.19 at 9:27 pm

44 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.14.19 at 7:14 pm
@#24 Confused Communist Conservative
“If the lazy parasites communist CONservatives ….”
*******

Do the Conservative communists stand in line waiting for financial handouts before or after the NDP communists or the Liberal communists?

_________________________

Prove me wrong. Realtors, bankers , developers demand 10’s of Billions of taxpayers money for their own needs at the expense of everyone. Communist conservatives hate and I mean hate the free and open markets. B20 protects taxpayers from said communist conservatives who scream about government interference. Yet not one peep about CMHC interference in the free market? Communist conservatives are hypocrites, liars, SHYSTERS and all out the most greedy.

#70 canuck on 05.14.19 at 9:33 pm

Calgary is dead will get worse as the city loses millions from tax loss. As a Conservative(former), I don’t care what Scheer says. The party lost my vote as I’m going with PPC. Save your breath about vote splitting… I live in the west and the election is over before our polls close. At least Bernier has come out with some of his platform. Scheer wets his finger and checks which way the wind blows. Sad…

If there are enough idiots who vote for the Trudeau liberals, you kids in the east will enjoy the chatter out here about succession. Brad Wall has a bigger pulse on what the feelings out here are then what you read in the paper or watch on CBC.

Garth, I’m sad to learn that you take some information from someone supposedly in the RV industry without checking it out yourself. Care to guess what the weakest quarter is for motorhome sales? Yes, the first quarter. If 20 were sold last year and only 12 were sold this year, is that cause for alarm? Get back to me when you’re talking hundreds of units.

I believe the measure is in thousands. – Garth

#71 NoName on 05.14.19 at 9:34 pm

Oh the robots…

Paywall
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-06/who-to-sue-when-a-robot-loses-your-fortune

Not paywall, read comments, funny.

https://m.slashdot.org/story/355732

#72 Vampire Studies (post grad) on 05.14.19 at 9:35 pm

66 gfd – thank you for the link

“immense social pressure”

too funny if it wasn’t so sad. I guess a smart phone doesn’t make you smart.

#73 Thedood on 05.14.19 at 9:36 pm

Anyone working in tech should leave Canada. At least temporarily. When the government of BC is bragging to Amazon that we have the lowest payed tech workers in North America it’s time to pack your bags.

Also tech companies in the US are run by people with degrees in Computer Science. Tech companies in Canada are run by people with an MBA who equate The Art of Computer Programming to assembly line work at GM Oshawa.
————————————————

Yup. Agree completely. It’s not just tech either, healthcare, O&G, finance, the (way) better paycheques are outside the Canadian borders. Don’t let anyone tell you otherwise. Been there done that so I know first hand. If you’re young and educated, get your resumes in to the international head hunters and look beyond Canada, you will not get ahead here, even in Calgary.

#74 akashic record on 05.14.19 at 9:38 pm

#37 old dinosaur on 05.14.19 at 6:55 pm

Heard a good bit of gossip news today from a federal employee friend in Ottawa. It’s the talk of the water cooler crowd in Ottawa today.

Trudeau isn’t calling an election on Oct 19
He’s delaying to 2020.
Not sure how that would work?
Any thought?

—-

Easy.

Evidence-based science proves that the enemies of the people people use voting at elections to defeat democracy.

Elections are the most potent schedule four-and-a-half hallucinogenic poison. They will be banned for citizens who are not on the social media validated pot vaccinated voters list.

“Get your shot to have a shot. Liberals for the Rule of Democracy.”

#75 Tony on 05.14.19 at 9:51 pm

RV sales huh, someone must watch plenty of youtube videos.

#76 Smoking Man on 05.14.19 at 9:57 pm

Long Branch Apprentice on 05.14.19 at 6:35 pm
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/temporary-workers-employment-1.5135310

All Mad Max has to do to win the election is trigger Millennial’s pent up rage with the system.

The Liberals can only stick their fingers in the dyke of societal pressures for so long.

If it keeps on raining…

PS My new past time is taunting people who went to grad school and are now buried beneath a mountain of debt, with little to no prospects for jobs that pay above minimum. This is what they get for being gullible and susceptible to brainwashing. The reward for being good at school, is, wait for it, more school!

Cue the deranged people defending being in school for 6-10 yrs for a useless piece of paper and some letters after their name.
……

Nice post. Dead on.
Come to the USA, make twice as much and 1/3 taxes you pay in Kunckstan. Booze and smokes 1/2 price.
No Carbon Tax

#77 akashic record on 05.14.19 at 10:03 pm

Netflixing Africa. Beautiful. Maybe retire there.

#78 Tony on 05.14.19 at 10:07 pm

Re: #40 Tim on 05.14.19 at 7:00 pm

Ironically condos are what to buy right now in Calgary. The single detached market likely won’t bottom out until late fall. The condo market has already bottomed out.

#79 TurnerNation on 05.14.19 at 10:12 pm

Shut down Ma & Pa. Dependence on State-sponsored businesses is a must (Tesla, Uber, Amazon, et al.)

https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/tentative-dan-fumano-column-on-new-property-taxes

That’s because B.C. properties are assessed — and taxed — based on their “highest and best use.” Effectively, that means older businesses in single-storey buildings, like Tuesdays’, are assessed on their development potential, which could be a multi-storey building with commercial space on the ground floor and residential units above.

Typically, the whole property — both the existing ground-floor business and all the unbuilt residential potential above — would be taxed at the commercial rate, which is about four times higher than the residential rate. Critics have long decried this system as unfair to small businesses.

#80 MF on 05.14.19 at 10:13 pm

#58 Not 1st on 05.14.19 at 8:15 pm

Troll status officially reached.

Sad because some of your stuff I agreed with.

MF

#81 MF on 05.14.19 at 10:19 pm

#73 Thedood on 05.14.19 at 9

How come I am “slowly” getting ahead?

The US has it’s pluses and minuses. Ten years ago people were singing a very different tune, or did you forget?

Go on any forum with Americans and listen to the moaning. Did you forget how trump got elected?

If anyone is not winning it’s their fault, not Canada’s.

MF

#82 -=jwk=- on 05.14.19 at 10:23 pm

In no particular order:

Also tech companies in the US are run by people with degrees in Computer Science. Tech companies in Canada are run by people with an MBA who equate The Art of Computer Programming to assembly line work at GM Oshawa.

Uhm, no, they are all run by MBA because that is how you make money. Amazon alone has 9 of the 11 people that report to Bezos with MBA’s. The other 2 are the lawyer and the comms person who has a master in science majoring in Business.

You do make more in the USA, but the price is your soul, safety and having to learn to fire guns to protect yourself. Also, don’t lose your health insurance card, that thing is like gold.

You may want to put less than 20% down because the bank might give you a better rate ( they get the free-ish CMHC insurance, lowering their risk) So put 16% down, get the better rate then make a one time payment.

Harper passed the fixed election date legislation, then promptly ignored it. But that was for the good of the country, right?

#83 not 1st on 05.14.19 at 10:27 pm

Not to worry, we gained a 100,000 baristas, pot shop workers and Uber drivers.

Canada lost 3,000 oil and gas jobs in April

https://www.jwnenergy.com/article/2019/5/canada-lost-3000-oil-and-gas-jobs-april/

#84 JSS on 05.14.19 at 10:29 pm

What about Edmonton? Isn’t edmonton’s Real estate like calgary’s? Same boom and bust?

#85 Ronaldo on 05.14.19 at 10:52 pm

#84 JSS on 05.14.19 at 10:29 pm
What about Edmonton? Isn’t edmonton’s Real estate like calgary’s? Same boom and bust?
——————————————————————
A good friend told me a few weeks ago that they’d purchased a condo in Edmonton as a rental property for which they paid around $250 grand. They tell me that they would be lucky to get $120 grand for it right now and they don’t figure it will be worth any more than that ever. They admit they got caught up in the hype.

#86 Thedood on 05.14.19 at 11:05 pm

#81 MF on 05.14.19 at 10:19 pm
#73 Thedood on 05.14.19 at 9

How come I am “slowly” getting ahead?

The US has it’s pluses and minuses. Ten years ago people were singing a very different tune, or did you forget?

Go on any forum with Americans and listen to the moaning. Did you forget how trump got elected?

If anyone is not winning it’s their fault, not Canada’s.

MF
_——————————

We’re not talking about you, we’re talking about the young’uns just getting started. And if you’ve only ever lived and worked in Canada, you don’t know what you’re talking about.

#87 Ronaldo on 05.14.19 at 11:05 pm

#60 gfd on 05.14.19 at 8:21 pm
When the boffo job numbers were published a few days ago, and reported here, most people didn’t believe them. No way, they cried, that over 100,000 paycheques were added in a single month. The economy’s circling the drain. It’s fake news!
=====================================

I think we shall witness 100,000+/- job number increases every month right until October.
—————————————————————–
That would take some kind of miracle. That would be the equivalent of the U.S. adding 1 million jobs each month. They were all giggly about the 263,000 that were created last month. Tell me where these jobs will be sprouting from? It would be interesting to know.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls

#88 Smartalox on 05.14.19 at 11:10 pm

Akashic Record @ #77:

You know what you don’t see when you Netflix Africa?

RVs.

There’s a whole continent of roads out there, beautiful, unspoiled wilderness, and NO RVs. Not. A. Single. One.

It reminds me of a story I heard once about the first Bata shoe salesman to arrive in Africa: he arrived, took a look around, and wrote a telegram to head office.

Nobody wears shoes here, STOP. Not much of a market here. STOP.

He was recalled, and subsequently fired.

The second guy that Bata sent to Africa arrived, looke around and sent a telegram back to the head office:

Nobody wears shoes here! STOP. The market is wide open! STOP. Enormous potential! STOP. Send product, with funds and copy for advertising! STOP.

Sell RVs and build trailer parks in Africa. The opportunity is YUGE!

#89 Ustabe on 05.14.19 at 11:16 pm

…You do make more in the USA, but the price is your soul, safety and having to learn to fire guns to protect yourself. Also, don’t lose your health insurance card, that thing is like gold.

Plus you get to drive past children in chain link pens under freeway overpasses…

#90 NoName on 05.14.19 at 11:58 pm

#68 Flop… on 05.14.19 at 9:25 pm
As Clint Eastwood once said.

Is this my second or forth post?

Well, to tell you the truth, in all this excitement, I’ve kinda lost track myself. But being this is a .44 Magnum, the most powerful handgun in the world, and would blow your head clean off, you’ve got to ask yourself one question: ‘Do I feel lucky?’ Well, do you, punk…

M44BC

Rumor is gum ban is coming, i am just not sure is it next month or one after, but its coming.

#91 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.15.19 at 12:03 am

What’s going on in Radium Hotsprings?
133 properties for sale.
Only 733 people live there.

https://www.ovlix.com/for-sale/British-Columbia
(scroll down to R)

#92 DON on 05.15.19 at 12:04 am

#15 Linda on 05.14.19 at 5:17 pm

Aw, the dog of the day is catching a rainbow:)

RV’s. I’ve never been a fan myself. Could be this is something that will die off as the Boomers do. The drop in sales might be a combination of factors – aging demographic, higher gas costs etc. Like dandelions they pop up in spring & disappear in autumn. I’m just guessing they are not suitable to live in year round, or maybe people would start buying them instead of condos. Given the various condo construction horror stories buying an RV might be the way to go & hey, that takes care of the mobility issue to boot. Just drive to where the work is, you’ve already got a place to live.

*************

People are already living in RVs in parts of BC. There are year round pads available.

I walk down my street and the RVs are everywhere, on lawns, parked on the roads, crowding driveways.

The island highway has RV shops all the way up, every town, city, rural area. I recently sold a family members 25 ft (got a third of the cost after 7 years).

#93 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.15.19 at 12:18 am

Love BC Spot Prawns.
Very expensive for locals, because most of them were exported to Asia.
Fortunately, China has slapped huge tarrifs on seafood from Canada. The price of spot prawns has come done nicely.
So I can again indulge in clean, wild Pacific Spot Prawns.
Rather than those imported prawns from filthy fish farms in Thailand and Vietnam.

#94 Paul on 05.15.19 at 12:45 am

Ran in to a wall on comments 26-32.

#26 Smoking Man
“T2 will do anything including obstruction of justice to satisfy his masters at UN.”

– A conspiracy theory is not required. Overpromising, underdelivering and incompetence explains all you need to know.

——-

#28 Dolce Vita

It might just be me, but I just can’t follow most your comments. They are everywhere and nowhere and mostly incoherent. An exception were most of your thoughtful comments on your life in Italy post. Appreciated those!

————–

#30 Sail away

“If there’s ever been a case favouring rent vs. buy, it has to be motorhomes with Van/GTO real estate a close second.”

That was the highlight of the thread!

#32 Long Branch Apprentice

“PS My new past time is taunting people who went to grad school and are now buried beneath a mountain of debt, with little to no prospects for jobs that pay above minimum.”

Probably better to get a new past time. What value will this hobby add to your life?

Paul

#95 canuck on 05.15.19 at 2:45 am

I believe the measure is in thousands. – Garth

In a year, sure. Not in a quarter. Motorized is a small portion of overall RV sales in a 3 billion dollar Canadian market.

#96 PeterfromCalgary on 05.15.19 at 2:53 am

RVs are boring and expensive. Want something you can drive and has lots of room to sleep check out a used hearse. They are generally driven very conservatively and are therefore not very worn out.

I like this one myself.

https://www.kijiji.ca/v-cars-trucks/calgary/hearse-for-sale-great-for-haunted-house-promotional-vehicle/1427550609?enableSearchNavigationFlag=true

#97 NoName on 05.15.19 at 3:08 am

@Fartz

Its not a moon its the light.

https://www.universal-sci.com/headlines/2018/9/26/its-better-light-not-worse-behaviour-that-explains-crimes-on-a-full-moon

#98 Gravy Train on 05.15.19 at 6:02 am

#83 not 1st on 05.14.19 at 10:27 pm
“Not to worry, we gained 100,000 baristas, pot shop workers and Uber drivers.” Uninformed. The major job gains were as follows:
• 32,400 in wholesale and retail trade,
• 29,200 in construction,
• 13,800 in information, culture and recreation, and
• 13,800 in other services (except public administration).

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/190510/t002a-eng.htm

“Canada lost 3,000 oil and gas jobs in April.” Correct. The job losses were as follows:
• 14,900 in professional, scientific and technical services;
• 4,600 in business, building and other support services;
• 2,900 in forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; and
• 2,200 jobs in educational services.

As I’ve mentioned to you before, your financial and investment decisions should be based on facts, not feelings or ideology. You’ll never learn, will you? :P

#99 Dolce Vita on 05.15.19 at 6:51 am

#94 Paul

Everybody has a bad day(s) Paul, me included.

Will do better and thanks for the encouragement there as well.

#100 Dolce Vita on 05.15.19 at 7:23 am

Honest to God, reading Twitter this AM (my Left, Right and in between feeds) there are a lot of upset Canadian’s posting about you name it – more than normal.

I can’t help but be taken aback by some of the Replies to @liberal_party and @JustinTrudeau many of which are vicious.

And it’s not just a few, it’s in the hundred’s at times on a single Tweet. I’m as displeased with his performance as the next person but there are ways to express this without demonizing all that Justin has accomplished in his life and is doing. After all, he did get elected PM.

My THEORY:

Canadian’s getting brainwashed by American MSM, day in day out, and its take no prisoner, polarized, win at all cost and uncompromising views. We need, as Canadian’s, to remind ourselves of who we are as a people – kind, compassionate, generous, calm, collected, respectful and reserved.

Living afar from Canada and apart from the cacophony of US MSM lets you see these things more clearly.

Come on Canada, we can do better than the American’s.

Buona Mattina d’Italia.

#101 MF on 05.15.19 at 7:24 am

#86 Thedood on 05.14.19 at 11:05 pm

“We’re not talking about you, we’re talking about the young’uns just getting started. And if you’ve only ever lived and worked in Canada, you don’t know what you’re talking about.”

-My work allows me to talk to tons of people from all walks of life. Lots of new, recent, and older immigrants to Canada (as well as their children) from tons of other countries. Some are very successful and others struggle. This is not new.

So I see the other side. Everyone has different circumstances. Go listen to Americans complain and blame everyone for their problems on other forums to see. Lots of people come here because their goals were not being achieved elsewhere for whatever reason. Others come here for stability. Talking to those people you will hear complaints about their home country.

The young’uns are fine. The straight arrow intelligent ones in good schools from good families are often snapped up by big name companies early for internships, with hiring usually occurring later on. This is not new either. Some succeed and others fail.

This blog and its community is somewhat biased. It’s entire premise is based on our overvalued real estate, and so it will attract a certain type of frustrated demographic.

If someone can’t succeed, it’s their fault, not Canada’s.

MF

#102 Tater on 05.15.19 at 7:46 am

#48 Linda on 05.14.19 at 7:34 pm
#16 ‘Jason’ – I’m not quite sure if your post is meant the way it written, but to answer your question the best choice depends on just what the purchaser wants. If they do not wish to pay the purchase price of the property more than twice over then they need to pay off the loan in 15 years or less. A general rule of thumb for amortization periods as follows:

15 years = original purchase price times 2 = for every dollar you borrow, you pay two back
20 years = original purchase price times 3
25 years = original purchase price times 5

Now, this general rule applied with ‘normal’ interest rates. The uber low rates of recent times may have skewed that rule somewhat. I think it may be safe to suggest that the much higher purchase prices of housing offsets any advantage lower interest rates may have had.

Obviously if a 25 year amortization term results in a 5 to 1 repayment then 30 years would be even more. I believe it could be as much as 7 to 1. So if you borrowed one million you would have paid back seven million before the mortgage was retired & the property actually was owned by you or your heirs instead of the bank. Have to say that does not sound like a financial win to me.
—————————————————————

Great googly moogly. Does Stan know that you’re coming for his crown of most innumerate commenter?

Because this is just complete nonsense. Perhaps you should get a calculator and work out some examples.

For a 15 year amortization, at 5%, you pay 142% of what you borrow. For 30 years its 193%.

To have your numbers even come close to being correct annual interest rates would need to be 20%+

#103 Tater on 05.15.19 at 7:53 am

#67 tccontrarian on 05.14.19 at 9:12 pm
#8 Tater on 05.14.19 at 4:58 pm

#4 tccontrarian on 05.14.19 at 4:19 pm
#27 Shawn on 05.13.19 at 6:18 pm

$CAD is likely to retest the 2002 lows.

/////////////////////

So why are the commercial traders in a long:short ratio of about 2:1?
CAD follows oil/commodities, and those are coming off a bottom.

Careful out there!

TCC
————————————————————–
Why would you look at commercial traders? They are hedgers, not speculators. And why would you bother looking at futures data? That market is tiny vs the proper FX markets.
——————————-

I consider commercials as the most knowledgeable in the fundamentals of whatever it is they’re trading – currencies included. So, when ‘hedgers’ aren’t worried much about hedging, for me it’s a vote of confidence that prices aren’t likely go against their positioning. This becomes more relevant when they reach extreme levels (historically). Not an exact science to be sure – just one of the indicators that I monitor.

TCC
———————————————————-

But you’re looking at a very limited data set. The vast majority of corporate FX hedging is done OTC.

#104 dharma bum on 05.15.19 at 8:17 am

Hamid writes:

“I would love to hear your thoughts on these matters and any other real estate and investment tips and tricks that you may have for people in their early 20’s.”
——————————————————————–
Hamid should not buy real estate.

He is obviously a bit slow, or has been living under a rock, if he writes to Garth directly (and wastes Garth’s time) to ask a question which has essentially been answered over and over and over (and over) every single day for the past 10 years!

Hamid: You’re a computer guy, right?
So, scroll to the top of any of Garth’s posts, and at the top right hand corner you’ll see the archives.
Start at 2008 and start reading.
There you’ll find all the advice on these matters you need.
Jeez.

Also, don’t buy real estate.
Buy a cheap, used RV, and park it at any Wal-Mart parking lot in North America.
If they kick you out, just move on to the next Wal-Mart.

You can read all the Greater Fool blog entries for a few years, then you’ll know everything you need to know about real estate and financial matters.

The education you get from that will be worth far more than the bachelor’s degree you are about to embark on.

#105 Headhunter on 05.15.19 at 8:19 am

Love ur posts MF I really do and no disrespect.

Let it go and perhaps go with the flow? You are dead wrong about the skilled employment shit here in Canada.
Yes someone can “succeed” here with hard work.. but if you have good skills its way easier to prosper in the USA.

Lots of people come here cause they couldnt get in the USA. Go to Ann Arbour MI full of highly skilled immigrants who landed in Windsor 1st. Then went over. Why you ask? Cause its better there.

Cruise quora for a day and look at all the perspective “newcomers” asking “is it worth coming to Canada” read some answers.

I have 3 kids in their 20’s ya they are doing fine but its not as easy for them as it was for me… and it was easier for my parents, than it was for me.

May not like to hear it but the young ARE better to leave.. OR get a good gov’t gig if you can

#106 dharma bum on 05.15.19 at 8:24 am

#102 Tater

Great googly moogly.
——————————————————————–

LOVE the Frank Zappa reference.

Also, watch out where the huskies go, and don’t you eat that yellow snow!

STRICTLY from commercial. (Strictly commercial.)

#107 Renter's Revenge! on 05.15.19 at 8:57 am

#91 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.15.19 at 12:03 am
What’s going on in Radium Hotsprings?
133 properties for sale.
Only 733 people live there.

===================

They’re kicking the dirty Albertans out of their province, obvs

#108 maxx on 05.15.19 at 10:17 am

Return TFSA contribution limits to pre-Lib levels!

Add that to the campaign platform and see how many additional votes come in.

#109 oh bouy on 05.15.19 at 10:30 am

@#101 MF on 05.15.19 at 7:24 am
#86 Thedood on 05.14.19 at 11:05 pm

This blog and its community is somewhat biased. It’s entire premise is based on our overvalued real estate, and so it will attract a certain type of frustrated demographic.

If someone can’t succeed, it’s their fault, not Canada’s.

MF
__________________________

Exactly.

#110 Ronaldo on 05.15.19 at 10:31 am

A good example of how taxpayers get screwed. This is what we called a ‘runaway’. Governments are famous for this. Doubt it would happen with a private corporation before something was soon done about it. Had a situation like that with a company I worked for and we sent them packing and hired our own developers. Got the end users involved in the development and ended up with a good system at a fraction of the cost.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/phoenix-costs-137-million-ibm-1.5135545

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/phoenix-costs-137-million-ibm-1.5135545

#111 Brett in Calgary on 05.15.19 at 10:40 am

#34 TS on 05.14.19 at 6:46 pm
You guys that are lining up to buy downtown Cowtown real estate on Garth’s hot tip, I got some ice in Nunavut and some sand in the Sahara that I could throw in. 30% of all the square footage in downtown Calgary is unoccupied. Housing today costs less in nominal terms than in 2007. Albertans are the most indebted individuals in Canada with the highest rate of personal bankruptcies. Calgary’s unemployment rate is the highest in the whole country. And yet Calgary is the 5th most expensive major Canadian housing market.

Good luck with that.

Buy when there’s blood. – Garth

=================================
The [half] million dollar question is how much blood? I think there is much more to be let in this city. Condos are likely bottomed, but not anything else.

#112 Shawn Allen on 05.15.19 at 10:41 am

Commercial dollar hedging?

TCC said:

So why are the commercial traders in a long:short ratio of about 2:1?

and

I consider commercials as the most knowledgeable in the fundamentals of whatever it is they’re trading – currencies included. So, when ‘hedgers’ aren’t worried much about hedging, for me it’s a vote of confidence that prices aren’t likely go against their positioning. This becomes more relevant when they reach extreme levels (historically). Not an exact science to be sure – just one of the indicators that I monitor.

TCC

****************************************
Commercial importers in Canada need to hedge and protect against a fall in the Canadian dollar.

In contrast commercial exporters including oil and other commodity sellers need to protect against a rise in the Canadian dollar.

Is there a link to a chart showing this historic peak in the long short ratio? And is the data accurate as Tater suggests most of the trading is done over the counter rather than in futures. But still, where is the link to the futures graph?

I don’t know why anyone would be trying to bet on the direction of the dollar as opposed to just be diversified.

Charlie Munger recently advised: Figure out what works and then do it.

So why not invest in things that make a positive return reliably over the long term as opposed to bet on zero-sum fluctuations like the Canadian versus U.S. dollar that has no material long-term trend? A 30% move in a 100 years is nothing compared to so may other investments.

#113 T on 05.15.19 at 10:42 am

#82 -=jwk=- on 05.14.19 at 10:23 pm
In no particular order:

Also tech companies in the US are run by people with degrees in Computer Science. Tech companies in Canada are run by people with an MBA who equate The Art of Computer Programming to assembly line work at GM Oshawa.

Uhm, no, they are all run by MBA because that is how you make money. Amazon alone has 9 of the 11 people that report to Bezos with MBA’s. The other 2 are the lawyer and the comms person who has a master in science majoring in Business.

You do make more in the USA, but the price is your soul, safety and having to learn to fire guns to protect yourself. Also, don’t lose your health insurance card, that thing is like gold.

———-

Having experience working in the US I can tell you, you are wrong and delusional on all accounts. Do you just make things up, spreading your ignorance as facts? Sad. So many delusional and ignorant Canadians, believing what they want to, not the truth.

#114 gfd on 05.15.19 at 11:06 am

#87 Ronaldo on 05.14.19 at 11:05 pm
#60 gfd on 05.14.19 at 8:21 pm
When the boffo job numbers were published a few days ago, and reported here, most people didn’t believe them. No way, they cried, that over 100,000 paycheques were added in a single month. The economy’s circling the drain. It’s fake news!
=====================================

I think we shall witness 100,000+/- job number increases every month right until October.
—————————————————————–
That would take some kind of miracle. That would be the equivalent of the U.S. adding 1 million jobs each month. They were all giggly about the 263,000 that were created last month. Tell me where these jobs will be sprouting from? It would be interesting to know.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls
==================================
. . . . 100,000+/- job number increases every month right until October (SARCASM)

#115 Citizen on 05.15.19 at 11:18 am

Smoking man #76:

Love your new past time Smoky!

Parents Teachers are still under the fantasy that their kids must go to University no matter what.
College is below them.
This feeds the furor – Look no further than Loughlin and Huffman. Some people think you can buy your way.

#116 David Pylyp on 05.15.19 at 11:22 am

“Anyone shopping the market when their term is up, looking for a better rate or more flexible prepayment, must also pass the test – currently set at 5.34%. That makes little sense. By limiting choice (and competition) it locks people into one lender who’s no longer motivated to give the best deal”

Renewals are especially hard pressend to change lenders or consolidate higher interestrate debt into the mortgage.

Getting independent advice is key

Thank you

David Pylyp
Toronto

#117 not 1st on 05.15.19 at 11:26 am

Calgary and Alberta just experienced the trifecta of doom with a downturn in oil prices, an incompetent NDP govt and a hostile Liberal govt. I don’t think its ever seen anything like that before. If they cant climb out of it (and the country should be helping them do just that), then I imagine other options will be on the table.

Alberta would be instantly $13B dollars richer with a simple phone call to Trump. Scheduled transfers are going to be $17-19B in 2021. No way they take this lying down. If Bills C48 and C69 aren’t in the trash and TMX approved in June, watch out.

#118 tccontrarian on 05.15.19 at 11:28 am

#103 Tater
“But you’re looking at a very limited data set. The vast majority of corporate FX hedging is done OTC.”
—–

I guess you could say that I place more value on the “limited data set” that the commercials provide. In other words, the ‘smart money’ is not necessarily the ‘popular money’.
As was stated in an earlier post, very few money-managers (<5%), outperform the index – and I'm guessing it probably the same few ('elite') managers that have the ability to do it consistently (not necessarily every year, but on average).
So, I don't buy into the Mantra that no-one can outperform the market (so give us your money for a … fee, to save you from yourself).
Even if I can't, I'm going to have fun trying! At least, I will learn things along the way. I've repeated stated here that we're in the earlier stages of a bear market, which will be, more than likely, more severe than the last one – does anyone believe it? No!
How do I 'know'? Well, from reading a 'few' top-notch market commentators, who are obviously 'unpopular' since no-one wants the party over.

TCC

#119 Robert Ash on 05.15.19 at 11:29 am

# 91 …I suspect that the comment from Renters Revenge is the correct assessment. Radium Hot Springs, with the close Proximity to Calgary, is/was a Favorite place for Albertan’s to own a Recreational Property. The Non BC resident Tax is the issue, with these 133 properties, with Albertan owners, not being able to rationalize the Property Tax penalty for being Alberta Canadians. It is the result of the NDP policy to tame and control the Housing market in BC. It is disgusting to me, as a person, that worked and lived in Alberta and BC, and consider both places home… Disgusting to the tenth degree… My Dad, who spent 8 years in the UK, in WW2, would offer to escort Horgan to the Firing Squad line… for Treason.. Nice NDP.. good one… explain that to the Hotel/ Tim Franchise/ Season Boat Storage, small business person… These Leaders are very suspect, with their ridiculous knee jerk policies… If there is Money Laundering, then charge up Law Enforcement… Why turn the guns, inwards…

#120 maxx on 05.15.19 at 11:37 am

@ #6

Pre-bedtime check:

Router off, mobile ‘phones off, all tech. OFF, OFF, OFF!

Plus…….a good pair of earplugs.

#121 maxx on 05.15.19 at 11:39 am

@ #9

I’d love a look at the stats for buyer profile as well as motivation.

#122 not 1st on 05.15.19 at 11:40 am

Trudeau is so utterly incompetent its scary. Offers Canada steel and timber for the Notre Dame reconstruction. Like its some immense project or something. We have a project on the books that will use tons of Canadian steel, its stalled. And the average Canadian has enough trees in their own back yard to rebuild that tower. Guy is as clueless as it gets.

#123 IHCTD9 on 05.15.19 at 11:43 am

#66 gfd on 05.14.19 at 9:00 pm

BUSINESS
05/14/2019 08:33 EDT | Updated 12 hours ago

Canadian Bankruptcies Jump At Fastest Pace Since Financial Crisis

Research suggests Canadians are under immense social pressure to spend money, and that’s driving debt.

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2019/05/14/canadian-bankruptcies-increase_a_23725560/?spot_im_comment_id=sp_d0oLykNf_amp-23725560_c_A0cJYJ&spot_im_highlight_immediate=true

___

From the article:

“Canadians are under social pressure that is pushing them into debt, with 91 per cent of millennials admitting in a new survey that they have taken on debt to keep up with their friends.

According to the survey carried out by Qualtrics for Credit Karma, 45 per cent of millennials have taken on debt to cover the cost of vacations, and 36 per cent have borrowed to cover post-work dinner or drinks.

Nearly two-thirds of respondents say they keep their debt a secret.”

Good Grief, 91% worth are leading fake lives?

Borrowing for dinner and drinks?

What a bunch of nimrods.

#124 tccontrarian on 05.15.19 at 11:45 am

#112 Shawn Allen on 05.15.19 at 10:41 am

“Charlie Munger recently advised: Figure out what works and then do it.”

Well, I think this is exactly what I’m trying to do. One of the “things that work”, is knowing what smart-money is doing. That and buying when things are cheap
—–

“So why not invest in things that make a positive return reliably over the long term as opposed to bet on zero-sum fluctuations like the Canadian versus U.S. dollar that has no material long-term trend? ”
—–
Well, 3% is a ‘positive return’, but so is 30%. I prefer the latter! Some call this being ‘greedy’ – I just call it doing ‘good business’.
For instance, I’ve been buying, among other things, the US ETF TUR (Turkey), as it currently sports a P/E ratio of about only 7. This is not a ‘popular’ buy, for whatever reasons, and most ‘investors’ would rather buy the more popular SP500 (at P/E of about 30!)
Now, please tell me who’s got a better chance of making a good return?

TCC

#125 Ryan on 05.15.19 at 12:03 pm

Don’t look at Downtown Calgary real estate (it floods every 10 years), look at the Beltline.

#126 Lorne on 05.15.19 at 12:35 pm

#117 not 1st on 05.15.19 at 11:26 am
Calgary and Alberta just experienced the trifecta of doom with a downturn in oil prices, an incompetent NDP govt and a hostile Liberal govt. I don’t think its ever seen anything like that before. If they cant climb out of it (and the country should be helping them do just that), then I imagine other options will be on the table.

Alberta would be instantly $13B dollars richer with a simple phone call to Trump. Scheduled transfers are going to be $17-19B in 2021. No way they take this lying down. If Bills C48 and C69 aren’t in the trash and TMX approved in June, watch out.
……
The rest of the country is trembling!

#127 Tater on 05.15.19 at 12:37 pm

#118 tccontrarian on 05.15.19 at 11:28 am
#103 Tater
“But you’re looking at a very limited data set. The vast majority of corporate FX hedging is done OTC.”
—–

I guess you could say that I place more value on the “limited data set” that the commercials provide. In other words, the ‘smart money’ is not necessarily the ‘popular money’.
As was stated in an earlier post, very few money-managers (<5%), outperform the index – and I'm guessing it probably the same few ('elite') managers that have the ability to do it consistently (not necessarily every year, but on average).
So, I don't buy into the Mantra that no-one can outperform the market (so give us your money for a … fee, to save you from yourself).
Even if I can't, I'm going to have fun trying! At least, I will learn things along the way. I've repeated stated here that we're in the earlier stages of a bear market, which will be, more than likely, more severe than the last one – does anyone believe it? No!
How do I 'know'? Well, from reading a 'few' top-notch market commentators, who are obviously 'unpopular' since no-one wants the party over.

TCC
————————————————————–

You're inferring positioning from people you consider smart, which is fine, but you're only looking at a ver small subset of the FX market. Do you have any reason to believe that commercial clients who need to hedge and choose to do so in futures (rather than the 100x bigger otc market) are at all representative?

#128 James on 05.15.19 at 12:44 pm

#76 Smoking Man on 05.14.19 at 9:57 pm

Long Branch Apprentice on 05.14.19 at 6:35 pm
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/temporary-workers-employment-1.5135310

All Mad Max has to do to win the election is trigger Millennial’s pent up rage with the system.
The Liberals can only stick their fingers in the dyke of societal pressures for so long.
If it keeps on raining…
PS My new past time is taunting people who went to grad school and are now buried beneath a mountain of debt, with little to no prospects for jobs that pay above minimum. This is what they get for being gullible and susceptible to brainwashing. The reward for being good at school, is, wait for it, more school!
Cue the deranged people defending being in school for 6-10 yrs for a useless piece of paper and some letters after their name.
……
Nice post. Dead on.
Come to the USA, make twice as much and 1/3 taxes you pay in Kunckstan. Booze and smokes 1/2 price.
No Carbon Tax
____________________________________________
You and Smoking Man are mutually one in the same, excepting that Smoking Man has three letters after his name so he is beyond doubt deranged. So good luck to both of you when you’re both instituted and hospitalized for lobotomies’. Let us all have the confidence that your neurosurgeons are not schooled traditionally and that they procured their PhD’s at the University of Google or at Barnum & Bailey Clown College. Hope you wake up and do not have Nurse Ratched looking down at you!

#129 James on 05.15.19 at 12:50 pm

#100 Dolce Vita on 05.15.19 at 7:23 am

Honest to God, reading Twitter this AM (my Left, Right and in between feeds) there are a lot of upset Canadian’s posting about you name it – more than normal.

I can’t help but be taken aback by some of the Replies to @liberal_party and @JustinTrudeau many of which are vicious.

And it’s not just a few, it’s in the hundred’s at times on a single Tweet. I’m as displeased with his performance as the next person but there are ways to express this without demonizing all that Justin has accomplished in his life and is doing. After all, he did get elected PM.

My THEORY:

Canadian’s getting brainwashed by American MSM, day in day out, and its take no prisoner, polarized, win at all cost and uncompromising views. We need, as Canadian’s, to remind ourselves of who we are as a people – kind, compassionate, generous, calm, collected, respectful and reserved.

Living afar from Canada and apart from the cacophony of US MSM lets you see these things more clearly.

Come on Canada, we can do better than the American’s.

Buona Mattina d’Italia.
__________________________________________
The man gets what he deserves!
La mela non cade lontano dall’albero

#130 Remembrancer on 05.15.19 at 1:08 pm

#122 not 1st on 05.15.19 at 11:40 am
Trudeau is so utterly incompetent its scary. Offers Canada steel and timber for the Notre Dame reconstruction. Like its some immense project or something.
———————————
Early on there was speculation that Europe might not have trees tall enough for replacing the beams etc – regardless, an international stage for showcasing Canadian steel and lumber is an opportunity and a statement given 347 days since the #Trumptariffs were imposed on Cdn steel and aluminum for fake national security purposes…

Now, if he was wearing a Parisian mime suit at the time, then you’d have a good comment…

#131 Sail away on 05.15.19 at 1:11 pm

#124 tccontrarian on 05.15.19 at 11:45 am

Well, 3% is a ‘positive return’, but so is 30%. I prefer the latter! Some call this being ‘greedy’ – I just call it doing ‘good business’.
For instance, I’ve been buying, among other things, the US ETF TUR (Turkey), as it currently sports a P/E ratio of about only 7. This is not a ‘popular’ buy, for whatever reasons, and most ‘investors’ would rather buy the more popular SP500 (at P/E of about 30!)
Now, please tell me who’s got a better chance of making a good return?
TCC

————————————–
Some also call it gambling. Using P/E as an investing rule can be dangerous unless you also have a deep knowledge of Turkey’s economy and underlying triggers for stimulating the markets.

Let’s analyze:

Turkey’s MSCI index is at a 10 year low and has been on a steady downtrend, losing 70% of its value over that time.

Contrast that to the S&P 500 which has been on a steady uptrend and gained 355% over the same time period.

Your contrarian instinct might be correct and Turkey might be due to turnaround. Of course, it could just as easily continue down for another 10 years. I don’t personally have any knowledge of, or faith in, Turkey’s economy, so will continue to ‘invest’ in the S&P 500.

#132 IHCTD9 on 05.15.19 at 1:14 pm

Hamid writes:

“My question to you is what advice would you give someone in their early 20’s, completed a diploma in computing systems and plans to do the bachelors degree part time while working. Vancouver is an unattainable, unattractive market for the average person. I grew up thinking it’s the best place in the world but now I wonder if I can continue to live here. What real estate tips would you offer to someone in my generation? Is a not so nice but affordable condo a good investment opportunity?”
___

Best take Mr. T’s advice on this one. Forget about Vancouver RE as an “investment”. You’ll be retired before the market goes down and up around again. Chances are great you’ll make zip.

You’re in the same boat as everyone else your age out there. Below average wages, stupid RE prices, and most of the time it seems, a [email protected] Government at the helm. Pretty hard to win.

You can stay where you are and rent if this allows you to save for retirement in a meaningful way, but if it doesn’t; you’d best make plans to leave as you’ll retire sans any hard or liquid assets to help fund your golden years.

Keep in mind what Mr. E says too:

“Above all, remember that the door stands open. Be not more fearful than children; but as they, when they weary of the game, cry, “I will play no more,” even so, when thou art in the like case, cry, “I will play no more” and depart. But if thou stayest, make no lamentation.” ― Epictetus

#133 PastThePeak on 05.15.19 at 1:14 pm

#123 IHCTD9 on 05.15.19 at 11:43 am

“Canadians are under social pressure that is pushing them into debt, with 91 per cent of millennials admitting in a new survey that they have taken on debt to keep up with their friends.

According to the survey carried out by Qualtrics for Credit Karma, 45 per cent of millennials have taken on debt to cover the cost of vacations, and 36 per cent have borrowed to cover post-work dinner or drinks.

Nearly two-thirds of respondents say they keep their debt a secret.”

Good Grief, 91% worth are leading fake lives?
Borrowing for dinner and drinks?
What a bunch of nimrods.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Data like these points are the “warning signs” that the ‘economy’ (Canada, and USA…likely many other places) is no where as strong as people want to think. Really all that the media & CNBC / BNN commentators look at and talk about are:
– Stock market indices
– U3 unemployment (in US – those actively looking for work)
– GDP (transaction based)
– Headline inflation (excluding asset values, housing prices, etc).

Few little total air time (maybe 1%) is devoted to consumer debt, corporate debt, gov’t debt, quality of debt, etc.

Yes, the US and Canadian consumers have been keeping up OK w.r.t. spending…by going into debt. Even at low interest rates, a debt wall can be hit. Canadian consumers are just about there. Lowering interest rates from 1.75% to 1.25% isn’t going to save them.

And, as I always note, this is with unemployment at low levels. How is the Canadian consumer going to deal with an (inevitable) downturn that leads to some notable unemployment increases. Answer = very poorly.

#134 JB on 05.15.19 at 1:20 pm

#31 Trumpocalypse2019 on 05.14.19 at 6:21 pm

Don’t buy a condo, a bunker is a better idea. Or investing in canned goods and a dehydrator.

And a cheap used RV with a big store of fuel may actually be a wise option in very short order. Park it well outside of major urban centers.

As I have predicted, Trump is now moving towards war with Iran, a perfect distraction from his slow-motion Mueller implosion.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/13/world/middleeast/us-military-plans-iran.html

PREPARE.
………………………………………………………………..
Ive been in some of these RV’s and definitely nicer that most Condos. At least if you don’t like the scenery out your window in a condo, drive around the block in an RV and voila. Besides you don’t have to worry about the guy above you flooding our your place from his toilet and you can find some land and grow your own food.

#135 Sail away on 05.15.19 at 1:28 pm

#118 tccontrarian on 05.15.19 at 11:28 am

Even if I can’t [outperform the market], I’m going to have fun trying! At least, I will learn things along the way. I’ve repeated stated here that we’re in the earlier stages of a bear market, which will be, more than likely, more severe than the last one – does anyone believe it? No!
How do I ‘know’? Well, from reading a ‘few’ top-notch market commentators, who are obviously ‘unpopular’ since no-one wants the party over.
TCC

—————————————-

You might or might not have fun trying. Only time will tell. Losing money is never fun.

I get the sense that you are new to investing and enthusiastic. Be careful with enthusiasm.

As you proceed, you will definitely learn a thing or two.

#136 Shawn Allen on 05.15.19 at 1:33 pm

Turkey?

#124 tccontrarian on 05.15.19 at 11:45 am

For instance, I’ve been buying, among other things, the US ETF TUR (Turkey), as it currently sports a P/E ratio of about only 7. This is not a ‘popular’ buy, for whatever reasons, and most ‘investors’ would rather buy the more popular SP500 (at P/E of about 30!)
Now, please tell me who’s got a better chance of making a good return?

*****************************
I like the logic of the Turkey idea… in moderation of course because of various risks.

#137 greyhound on 05.15.19 at 2:07 pm

This article is about the US real estate market, but likely applicable to Canada as well. I found it fascinating. https://latest.13d.com/baby-boomers-millennials-real-estate-housing-downsize-97186b0e0ed2

#138 Brett in Calgary on 05.15.19 at 2:15 pm

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/consumer-insolvency-alberta-1.5136369

More blood. I think the steerage section on CBC could rival this one sometimes, Garth. There are some nasty (when their anonymous) people out there.

#139 Drill Baby Drill on 05.15.19 at 2:19 pm

Downtown Calgary in the core area is ugly. The pathways along the Bow river are really nice.

#140 not 1st on 05.15.19 at 2:19 pm

#98 Gravy Train on 05.15.19 at 6:02 am

As I’ve mentioned to you before, your financial and investment decisions should be based on facts, not feelings or ideology. You’ll never learn, will you? :P
—-

The simple fact that a real record job number like that would be accompanied but a huge increase in GDP and discretionary consumer spending. Instead, our debt increased our GDP fell to 1.4% and I see no retail sales blowout. RV sales are but one measure of that.

Conclusion, it aint real. Wait until the August Sept numbers come out. If we are doing 100,000 jobs a month up to that time I will eat my hat. Basically T2 and gang had a chance to front load the jobs numbers with govt hiring. Students, seasonal. The job increases are all in the 18-24 age bracket.

Compare to trumps numbers which are broad and deep and across all age brackets and even into minority groups. And hitting it every month with a 1% improvement in GDP and UE down to 3.6%.

#141 Ryan on 05.15.19 at 2:27 pm

@Sail away: agreed, using CAPE/PR for investing can get you in trouble. But since the S&P500’s CAPE is near 30, and Europe’s CAPE ~ 15, why not hedge more Europe? Historically they both even out, the next 10 years could belong to European markets (although, I have my doubts). By purely based on P/E, Europe is undervalued – even the big hedge funds were banging the drums of EAFE equities in Q4 2018!

#142 Lost...but not leased on 05.15.19 at 2:49 pm

#119 Robert Ash on 05.15.19 at 11:29 am
# 91 …I suspect that the comment from Renters Revenge is the correct assessment. Radium Hot Springs, with the close Proximity to Calgary, is/was a Favorite place for Albertan’s to own a Recreational Property. The Non BC resident Tax is the issue, with these 133 properties, with Albertan owners, not being able to rationalize the Property Tax penalty for being Alberta Canadians.

===============================

COMMENT:

Yes..Albertans could be bailing but IMHO everything owned by Boomers is hitting a wall..like RV’s.

I really can’t see Millenials owning RV’s, 2nd homes….Harleys(sorry Garth)…aka conspicuous consumption

Your leading edge Boomers are in their mid- 70’s….

#143 James on 05.15.19 at 2:50 pm

Is Mr Socks going to pay for this steel and lumber from him own pocket to help rebuild Notre-Dame? Grand Photo Op if you ask me!

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-trudeau-offers-canadian-lumber-steel-to-help-rebuild-frances-notre/

#144 Shawn Allen on 05.15.19 at 3:07 pm

Canada Pension Plan

Just announced they made an 8.9% return after fees in the latest year.

Been a number of CPP bashers here. But what is not to like? It’s a godsend for a lot of people who would otherwise save nothing. And the returns have been stellar over the last decade or more.

It’s not a perfect plan but it has been a good public pension plan and well managed in recent decades.

#145 baddog on 05.15.19 at 3:23 pm

Garth are you confusing the 35 and 40 year amortizations that have been been discontinued with the 30 yr which are still readily available? I just bought another rental house 6 months ago and got a 30 yr mortgage on it. Pretty sure all the banks are still offering them.

Not insured. – Garth

#146 tccontrarian on 05.15.19 at 4:43 pm

@ 130 – Sail Away

“Some also call it gambling. Using P/E as an investing rule can be dangerous unless you also have a deep knowledge of Turkey’s economy and underlying triggers for stimulating the markets.”
—–

I’m glad you wrote this (about ‘gambling’). There’s a fallacious concept out there that equates large returns to high risk. While this is often true, sometimes it just isn’t the case. Buying the SP500 at current levels would be a ‘higher-risk’ proposition than buying Turkey, again, at current levels. Price is what determines ‘risk’!
A perfect example of this is my recent participation in the cannabis sector with start-ups etc. Those I considered ‘high-risk’ but they also offered up huge upside potential (which they’ve delivered), and since I’ve sold enough to cover my cost, whatever I’ve got left is literally ‘riskless’.
So, since my current ‘cost’ is actually less than ‘zero’, my remaining cannabis holdings are no longer a ‘gamble’.

Furthermore, I’d say it’s way more important to have deep knowledge of investor behaviour than Turkey’s economy. Granted, I am making an assumption: that Turks eat, shop, and generally spend money more or less the same way as we do (with some variants, naturally). Whatever differences may exist I doubt they account for a discount of more than 5-10% .

So, when a basket of stocks has lost 50% of its value based on 5% of perceived ‘risk’, I call that an ‘opportunity’.

Markets have always exhibited fluctuations from one irrational extreme, to the other. I merely try to identify those and place my ‘bets’ – and that’s quite different from ‘gambling’.

Gambling is when the odds are either unknown or when they hover at around 50-50 (or worse, of course).
From my experience/ knowledge/ understanding, I EXPECT 20-50% gains from my Turkey idea (over 6-18 months).

TCC

#147 tccontrarian on 05.15.19 at 4:53 pm

@ Shawn Allan

“I like the logic of the Turkey idea… in moderation of course because of various risks.”

I’ll make sure it’s well-cooked and I’ll try not to choke on a bone! :)

TCC

#148 tccontrarian on 05.15.19 at 5:05 pm

@134 Sail Away

“You might or might not have fun trying. Only time will tell. Losing money is never fun.”

Agreed! Losing money is never ‘fun’. The only reason I’m having ‘fun’ these days is because I identified most of the ways I’ve lost money in the past – and have made adjustments to my approach.

///
“I get the sense that you are new to investing and enthusiastic. Be careful with enthusiasm.”
–No, not ‘new’ – got tired of others losing money for me so I decided in 2009 to take control. I figured if I lose MY money at least I will have no-one else to blame (or kill). And if I appear ‘enthusiastic’, forgive me; it’s probably because of what I see coming over the next year or two.
///

“As you proceed, you will definitely learn a thing or two”

It is my belief that the day one stops learning is the day they begin to die – so, an ongoing endeveour (in the markets and other domains).
I spend 1-2 hours a day improving my understanding of the financial markets and other interests (financial markets 1st, heath/exercise 2nd,… etc). I mean, here I am reading Greater Fool and responding to strangers – it’s all valuable at some level. :)

TCC

#149 EB on 05.16.19 at 1:14 pm

“There are some nasty (when their anonymous) people out there.”

Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth.

– Oscar Wilde

It’s often distressing but there’s real value in seeing what underlies the Required Parameters of Discourse. There’s no more accurate gauge of the Zeitgeist.

#150 jess on 05.16.19 at 3:16 pm

private insurer profiteers

May 15, 2019
layers of bullshit /master of spin for insurance companies deadly spin continues to this day says insider Whistleblower Wendell Potter says the death of a young woman denied care by the insurance company he worked for was a turning point in his life; he says these practices are still taking place under the Affordable Care Act – on Reality Asserts Itself with Paul Jay

May 15, 2019 charm offensive fear tactics have a listen june 24 2009
cigna health insurance – senior head of communications
Whistleblower Wendell Potter says the death of a young woman denied care by the insurance company he worked for was a turning point in his life; he says these practices are still taking place under the Affordable Care Act – on Reality Asserts Itself with Paul Jay

Wendell Potter, author of ‘Deadly Spin: How Corporate PR is Killing Healthcare and Deceiving Americans’, traces his life from growing up poor and Republican in Tennessee, to radicalization during the Vietnam War, to cynical journalist who just wanted to make money – on Reality Asserts Itself with Paul Jay

https://therealnews.com/stories/trump-and-pelosi-both-cater-to-private-health-insurance-wendell-potter

wendell potter insider whistleblower
https://therealnews.com/stories/medical-insurance-companies-can-decide-who-lives-and-dies-rai-with-wendell-potter-4-7

PAUL JAY: But the doctors did.

WENDELL POTTER: The doctors did. The doctors, her treating physicians, certainly did. And they appealed that decision, and to no avail.

PAUL JAY: This is exactly, as you are saying with Palin and others, this is what the right claims happens in Canada and other places with government health insurance, which, in fact, it doesn’t. Like, in Canada the doctors decide. The plan doesn’t get to decide. But here the insurance companies can.

WENDELL POTTER: They do. And they still do. The Affordable Care Act did nothing to change that. In fact, I think it’s gotten even worse, because it did–the Affordable Care Act did do some good things. But I knew as soon as it was passed that the insurance companies would do other things to make sure that they met Wall Street’s profit expectations. That is the most important thing to these companies. And I can assure you that it’s the case. I, for 10 years, was responsible for handling financial communications to the media. And I know that what is most important is meeting Wall Street’s financial expectations every three months when you announce your earnings. And if you miss it by a penny, earnings per share, then you’ll see the value of your stock more than likely take a hit.

PAUL JAY: And a lot of these executives own a lot of stock.

https://therealnews.com/stories/medical-insurance-companies-can-decide-who-lives-and-dies-rai-with-wendell-potter-4-7

https://therealnews.com/stories/medical-insurance-companies-can-decide-who-lives-and-dies-rai-with-wendell-potter-4-7