The big gig

Hmm. Just when you thought it was safe to take a variable mortgage…

So much for all that recession talk or the doomer predictions for Bay Street. The economy smoked the economists last month. Big job gains. Higher wages. And proof the central bank was correct when it said the morass of the last few months would be temporary.

In case you missed it, the country turned out 106,500 April jobs. Yuge. In fact, that’s equivalent to the US creating a million positions in a month – which has never happened. It was the biggest banana in 43 years, taking the jobless rate to a four-decade low. The glorious land of beavers has now created 426,000 new jobs in one year and 700,000 over the last two. Plus, wages are up – a fat 2.5% – putting them slightly ahead of inflation.

More people are joining the labour force, and more of the new jobs are full-time, private sector gigs. Nice. As a result the dollar climbed and bond yields jumped. Concurrent with that, the imputed odds of a rate cut withered. It looks like the stock market was correct, ignoring the weakness of early 2019 and forging ahead about 14% so far in 2019.

Jobs, jobs, jobs. And you know what that means…

Unless something weird happens, the Bank of Canada won’t be lowering the cost of money. In fact, if the jobs-wages spiral continues and the October election doesn’t make Elizabeth May prime minister, the next rate move could well be higher. So, time to think hard about that mortgage. Why not take advantage of the current rate war and lock into a five at sub-3%?

Of course, when the cost of money is less than 1% above the rate of inflation, when financial markets are plumping and a balanced portfolio is rocking, don’t be in a sweat to pay off your home loan. An important part of diversification is ensuring your TFSA, retirement and non-reg accounts are well-funded at the same time you own real estate. Just pumping more equity into a single asset – especially when house prices remain elevated – is a risky strategy. No matter what your squeeze says. Think with your head. Not your pants.

$   $   $

Speaking of hormones, here’s some statistical evidence that FOMO is probably the key market driver when it comes to newbies buying houses. A survey by Genworth (mortgage insurance) and Royal LePage (used Audis) found almost 60% of moisters nationally, and nearly 70% of those trapped in Toronto jumped into the market out of fear they might miss out by waiting.

Ironically, buyers in the last two years have mostly seen declines from 2017 levels, especially with detached houses, and particularly in poor, troubled Vancouver. By the way, we’re also being told 25% of recent buyers went from living with mom to becoming a homeowner, and a fifth of those believe this delayed their parents’ plans for retirement or downsizing.

Finally, most of the kids say they’d rather have a smaller dwelling closer to work than a more commodious one further afield. “This may be influenced by longer work commutes,” the pollster observed, “with Toronto and Vancouver residents reporting 34 minute and 30 minute one-way travel times both to/from work.”

Thirty minutes? Seriously? That’s a hardship? Better to live in a concrete box so you can skateboard to work?

Big reset coming in a few years. Condo alert.

$   $   $

Not content with $2 trillion in mortgages, Canadians have now borrowed about $225 billion in home equity lines of credit. This is scary, since all this debt is at floating interest rates and these loans can be called at any time by the lender. If you’re sweet to [email protected], this will never happen. But it’s just one more risk to be aware of.

The bank cop, OSFI, has worried about HELOCs for a while. In fact look at the transit poster Matthew say on the train during his commute in Calgary this morning…

So now Ottawa will be requiring the banks to disclose how much they have in HELOCs, how people are repaying them, what consumers are using the money for, and how much of approved lines of credit have actually been utilized. Yes, more regs coming. We already know at last 25% of all borrowers pay only the interest on their loans, while an unknown number pay nothing – they defer payments and increase the amount outstanding each month until their ceiling is reached. We also know the fastest-growing mortgage type has a built-in HELOC feature, letting people expand debt by simply writing a cheque.

Now, $225 billion later, Ottawa is concerned.

What could possibly go wrong?

131 comments ↓

#1 dosouth on 05.10.19 at 4:22 pm

Just another non-story with non real jobs. Amazing how these number “appear” as the gov’t tries to move the focus away from so much ineptitude.

I would be dollars to donuts that these numbers come from gov’t hires and pre-funded positions from provincial and municipal gov’t sectors as well.

Just more manipulations…..but time will tell when July and August show 9,000 give or take.

#2 Nasa on 05.10.19 at 4:22 pm

105, 000 jobs created in a month?!!! Could it be a statistical error that once already happened? About 4 years ago Stats Canada reported approx. 1000 jobs were created when in fact it was 10x more than that.

#3 Tater on 05.10.19 at 4:23 pm

Living walking distance to work is great when you’re single or don’t have kids. Unfortunately, you generally won’t find good schools nearby. So, when the kids come, and they will, it’s off to the burbs.

#4 Chunk of Change on 05.10.19 at 4:25 pm

I was reading on bloomberg today that “one out of five B.C. properties are bought in cash; over the past two decades, C$212 billion in property has been bought in cash”

#5 Kim on 05.10.19 at 4:26 pm

One month does not make a trend, but more employment is good.

Did you miss the part about 426,000 jobs in a year? – Garth

#6 Next Wednesday on 05.10.19 at 4:28 pm

Big NDP announcement next Wednesday. Expect the it to hit in the afternoon.

#7 Tyler Lankin on 05.10.19 at 4:30 pm

FIRST!

#8 mike from mtl on 05.10.19 at 4:35 pm

…the pollster observed, “with Toronto and Vancouver residents reporting 34 minute and 30 minute one-way travel times both to/from work.”
///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Who did they poll, government boobs? Probably, as myself never in my life have I ever answered a poll question.

More realistic 45-90 minutes regardless car or public transport.

#9 Mr. White on 05.10.19 at 4:39 pm

Come what may the housing market will revert to normal. That will be bad for those carrying nasty debt. I imagine that banks will refinance those that are making their payments regardless of the market value of the security. Maybe my imagination is a bit too vivid though.

The good news is that the economy is spitting out jobs at a good rate.

Wouldn’t it be great if the Liberal goofs were in favour of getting Alberta’s petroleum to market and there were another 150,000 high paying jobs into the mix. Nirvana.

#10 IHCTD9 on 05.10.19 at 4:41 pm

#3 Tater on 05.10.19 at 4:23 pm

… So, when the kids come, and they will, it’s off to the burbs.

———

Or Quebec City!

#11 IHCTD9 on 05.10.19 at 4:49 pm

…“with Toronto and Vancouver residents reporting 34 minute and 30 minute one-way travel times both to/from work.”

Thirty minutes? Seriously? That’s a hardship? Better to live in a concrete box so you can skateboard to work?
——-

No kidding, I was thinking that is not bad at all…

Hopefully things are looking up, been two months worth of not much going on at work. I hear T2 is dropping some of the retaliatory tariffs on the US, I wonder how much this played a role in these good job numbers?

#12 Linda on 05.10.19 at 4:51 pm

Pic of the day – can dogs safely utilize seat belts?

The work commute. IF I use a car to get to place of work & leave home before 6:15 a.m., I can (mostly) get downtown in 25 minutes. However, parking is expensive so the preference is to take Transit. IF I am lucky, I can be downtown in under 45 minutes. Any traffic delay that impacts catching the connection I have to make results in a 75 minute commute, one way. Ditto heading home again. So I’m laughing at the idea that a 30 or 34 minute commute one way would be considered a hardship. Things may improve once the BRT (bus rapid transit) route comes online later this year. Looking forward to trying it out & seeing whether it improves travel times.

I can see why OSFI wants to crack down on HELOC’s. Here is hoping the uptick in employment will allow folks whose financial picture is less than rosy to improve their debt to income ratio. If the government is going to regulate the amount people can borrow, are they also going to introduce more restrictions on payday loan or other lenders of last resort?

#13 Captain Uppa on 05.10.19 at 4:59 pm

Sorry Garth, but this post is a stretch. The kids may think they want a condo near work, but they grow out of that very fast.

People (yes, even moisters) want detached. A lot of them want it in the GTA. This will not change.

#14 Sovavia on 05.10.19 at 5:03 pm

(1) Jobs are a lagging indicator (they follow spending and consumer borrowing).

(2) Governments focus on this data because they are the easiest to manipulate, even though they are volatile.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/april-jobs-alberta-statistics-canada-labour-survey-1.5131207

(3) Recessions begin as jobs peak.

#15 paracho on 05.10.19 at 5:07 pm

Great question!
What else could go wrong ?
This tome the good news could indulirectly be bad news for some .

#16 Blacksheep on 05.10.19 at 5:08 pm

I can’t believe people still fall for this government distributed crap, this ‘big print’ is a T2 feel good move, with an election only 6 short months away.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YYkCYhFuKR0

#17 Dolce Vita on 05.10.19 at 5:13 pm

Just a second there “Admiral Garth Farragut”.

Actual job numbers were actually BETTER than the Seasonally Massaged numbers:

Seasonally Adjusted (statistically massaged):

+106,500

Unadjusted (actual, raw data collected):

+187,700.

But, it’s to be expected.

March is the month when the Canadian Consumer comes out of hibernation and skyrockets spending. Business starts hiring to service that May to June spending peak until it drops off in January, and loveless February:

https://i.imgur.com/s5tNyCx.png

CBC, BNN falling over themselves that this was the “highest ever, in so many years, whatever”. No it wasn’t. For example, May 2018 (Unadjusted) = +300,000.

Today’s less than half, still an excellent number.

I will say 2019’s March–>April much, much better than last years which was: +43,800 (Unadjusted), +11,700 (Seasonally adjusted).

Not all Provinces fared well (MN, NB, NS, PE and SK) added to their unemployed ranks.

Here’s a Summary I threw together for each Province and Canada, Unadjusted:

https://i.imgur.com/RaVYX8u.png

————————————————————

One big question is:

Did Canadian business guess correctly that the Canadian Consumer will spend as in the past for the months to come?

…in light of RE and GDP lackluster performance.

Recall, unemployment lags a recession in time (e.g., early 80’s recession over, high unemployment rose AFTER that and persisted for years later):

https://i.imgur.com/zXnovqj.png

Wait until the next couple of GDP reports AND Trump learns to keep his big fat mouth shut about China.

#18 Victoria Real Estate Update on 05.10.19 at 5:22 pm

Garth, since the beginning of 2015 Canada is only + 3 in rate hikes while the States is + 9.

It was only a matter of months into the tightening cycle that Canadian policy makers noted that the economy couldn’t handle more than + 3 rate hikes since the beginning of 2015 and began talking about lowering rates again.

The old Garth rocked…

On December 30, 2008 you wrote: “Interest rates at zero are deathly worrisome, since they show central bankers are all out of bullets.”

There’s no way you’d say something like that today even after 10 years of emergency rates has failed to fix the economy like policy makers claimed it would.

There have been 5 increases in Canada and 9 in the US. The BoC would like to tighten further and will do so whenever feasible. – Garth

#19 Barb on 05.10.19 at 5:23 pm

Those banks with huge HELOC “inventories” should simply open a Real Estate department, because they’ll need to.

Today’s photo is among my many favourites from the blog!
Too cute!

#20 Dazed and CONfused on 05.10.19 at 5:24 pm

“…….The glorious land of beavers has now created 426,000 new jobs in one year and 700,000 over the last two…….”
______________________________________

700,000 in the last two years?

Best not to tell Scheer, Pierre Poilievre, Post Media, Sun News, Ezra IrreLevant, nor any of the AM talk radio hosts. They’re going to go into absolute cardiac arrest on this news, especially so close to a federal election.

#21 Smartalox on 05.10.19 at 5:26 pm

If money laundering accounted for 13% of the value transacted in the Greater Vancouver Real Estate in 2018, what do we think is going to happen as criminals lay low to avoid detection, and begin to fear enforcement?

What’s going to happen to all those HELOCs when home vales drop by 20%?

OSFI is asking banks to track their customers’ HELOCs, and whether or not they’re being repaid. I sure hope that the OSFI is also asking the banks for a moratorium on calling the loans, to prevent a stampede to the exits!

Years ago, a friend worked for a truck manufacturer in a small Oregon town. When the manufacturer closed up shop, the company had to negotiate a settlement with the local bankers to prevent the market from being flooded with listings for home as the former employees moved prepared for transfers to a new location.

Having one bank ‘pull the trigger’ on its HELOCs might trigger all the others to do the same. This is how an orderly correction might turn disorderly.

#22 Blackdog on 05.10.19 at 5:27 pm

@Linda. No that is not a safe way to buckle up your beloved pooch though it makes for a cute picture. However there are harnesses you can buy for your dog that are designed to be used with your car seatbelt. Basically the shoulder belt loops through the back of the harness tight against the seat, not across the dog, as car seat belts are designed for humans not dogs.

#23 Dan on 05.10.19 at 5:30 pm

426,000 new jobs?! Could it be all the YVR and YYZ realtors getting real jobs?

#24 MF on 05.10.19 at 5:33 pm

#1 dosouth on 05.10.19 at 4:22 pm

“I would be dollars to donuts that these numbers come from gov’t hires and pre-funded positions from provincial and municipal gov’t sectors as well.”

–>How about reading the report:

“The increased employment in April was driven by more employees in the private sector (+84,000), while there were also gains in public sector employment (+23,000). ”

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/190510/dq190510a-eng.htm

MF

#25 BC Renovator on 05.10.19 at 5:43 pm

[email protected]? Someone please…?

#26 Blackdog on 05.10.19 at 5:47 pm

The skeptics are saying that the increase in job numbers are mostly for people between the ages of 15 and 24 – i.e. summer jobs for high school and post secondary students.

#27 Blackdog on 05.10.19 at 5:48 pm

But highschool students aren’t out yet, so that doesn’t really make sense.

#28 wallflower on 05.10.19 at 5:49 pm

I visit here for the dawgs. Stick around for the doogies… and very much enjoy the comments as well as the main schtick.

This is typical in my hood.
This one started 15 months ago at $525K
Now at $469K
https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/20654459/3-bedroom-condo-402-40-ferndale-drive-s-barrie

After the first 8 weeks on market, STILL at $525K this appeared:
***Seller is offering to pay the first 6 months condo fees to purchaser***

I remember thinking, hahahahahhahaa, I wonder what your offer will be one year from now when others are selling at $450K?

#29 MF on 05.10.19 at 5:51 pm

#16 Blacksheep on 05.10.19 at 5:08 pm

Biggest gains were in Ontario, where a conservative government reigns.

Don’t underestimate provincial parties too. This is not just about the federal election. The news was good no matter how we cut it.

MF

#30 Dolce Vita on 05.10.19 at 5:52 pm

426,000 jobs.

THAT was so last year.

3/4 Qtrs in 2018 had strong growth.

Sept. 2018 –> Feb. 2019 GDP Net Growth (essentially “0” growth):

+0.19%

The last 4 of 6 months had negative GDP MoM growth.

Again, the 426,000 jobs were great for Canadians but it is NO indicator of what is to come. Unemployment peaks in the late stages of a recession and persists afterwards.

GDP and Retail Trade (Consumer Spending) are the indicators to watch. March’s GDP report comes out on May 31 and March’s Retail Trade report comes out May 22.

We’ll find out then if Canadian businesses GUESSED correctly with all the IN ANTICIPATION hiring for May, June sales peaks.

#31 Shawn Allen on 05.10.19 at 6:02 pm

Betting dollars to donuts…

#1 dosouth on 05.10.19 at 4:22 pm

“I would be[t] dollars to donuts that these numbers come from gov’t hires and pre-funded positions from provincial and municipal gov’t sectors as well.”

*******************
As MF at 24 pointed out you would have lost that bet.

Then again, as Stan would know, donuts these days are generally worth more than a dollar. Kind of ruins the old saying…

#32 Victoria Real Estate Update on 05.10.19 at 6:11 pm

Garth, we are both correct. I stated that since the beginning of 2015 Canada is + 3 in rate hikes.

There were 2 rate drops in 2015, followed by 5 increases after that.

The US didn’t drop rates in 2015 and they are + 9 since the beginning of that year.

#33 Dolce Vita on 05.10.19 at 6:11 pm

Don’t get me wrong Garth, I’am all in on:

“Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead.”

I just don’t see it with the last 6 months of near 0 GDP Growth, RE not doing well – all gloom to Consumer psychology.

The March GDP and Retail Trade reports will determine if the economy is indeed on an uptick.

Let’s hope the “other” 40% of the economy not captured by Retail Trade rebounds to humdinger growth. But recently, not even that’s looking good:

Current Account Balance is -$15.5 billion, 4th Qtr 2018

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/190228/dq190228a-eng.htm

————————————-

The jury is still out in my mind.

Buonanotte.

#34 Shawn Allen on 05.10.19 at 6:13 pm

What are these new workers producing.

I’m not a fan of perma bear David Rosenburg but…

He pointed out if there were 426,000 new workers and if GDP has hardly budged, then productivity per worker has declined.

What are they all doing? Maybe spending too much time at work reading addictive web sites?

#35 Steven Rowlandson on 05.10.19 at 6:17 pm

Now, $225 billion later, Ottawa is concerned.
What could possibly go wrong?

Maybe more than Ottawa could imagine particularly in the light of the risk it is taking by insuring mortgages. $650 billion plus in mortgage insurance looks rather dodgy if too many defaults happen and or if interest rates are forced up beyond a certain point. Having limited wages and wage growth to fight inflation and high growth in home prices and debt levels can not end well.

#36 Reximus on 05.10.19 at 6:27 pm

a lot of it is summer jobs getting filled

#37 Harry on 05.10.19 at 6:31 pm

The job market does look hot on indeed job board.

I was looking into some manager jobs.

Manager of what? Turns out collection agencies with fancy company names following up on people who are behind on their bills. These jobs are primarily in BC right now, even in the smaller communities.

Why would collection agencies be on a hiring spree in BC right now?

#38 You know on 05.10.19 at 6:34 pm

What happened to figures lie and Liars figure

#39 Tater on 05.10.19 at 6:39 pm

#24 MF on 05.10.19 at 5:33 pm
#1 dosouth on 05.10.19 at 4:22 pm

“I would be dollars to donuts that these numbers come from gov’t hires and pre-funded positions from provincial and municipal gov’t sectors as well.”

–>How about reading the report:

“The increased employment in April was driven by more employees in the private sector (+84,000), while there were also gains in public sector employment (+23,000). ”

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/190510/dq190510a-eng.htm

MF
——————

We walk around every day with the entirety of human knowledge in our hands, but people still prefer to spew nonsense.

#40 Ron on 05.10.19 at 6:40 pm

There have been 5 increases in Canada and 9 in the US. The BoC would like to tighten further and will do so whenever feasible. – Garth

I’m beginning to think low rates are permanent. Technology and population growth will continue to reduce inflationary pressure through efficiency and increased labor supply.

Anyways, BoC would rather sacrifice the loonie than wipe out an indebted population .

#41 Gullibulus on 05.10.19 at 6:43 pm

These numbers coming from the most exemplary ethical government in the known history, during the election year.
Bless Canadians, they believe everything.

#42 not 1st on 05.10.19 at 6:44 pm

This is absolutely smoke and mirrors. Canadas GDP is 1.4%. Its trade has been stalled, resources blocked, 500b in lost investment, tariffs are on, carbon taxes rampant, cost of living increase etc. A blow out on jobs is accompanied by an commensurate increase in GDP like the US has. This all debt purchased stimulus. Garth should know the difference.

#43 3s on 05.10.19 at 6:44 pm

but but but anybody here in Aus can tell you that a house IS not only an ATM, it’s better…since it earns you more in a week than a doctor earns! Who needs to work.

#44 Madcat on 05.10.19 at 6:47 pm

“he head of the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) gave a candid assessment of the country’s housing market, saying the “party” of homeownership as a sole savings vehicle will come to an end.”

#45 Oakville Sucks on 05.10.19 at 6:48 pm

The truth is that 75000 jobs were new summer jobs for 16 to 24 year olds.

#46 G on 05.10.19 at 6:50 pm

Is there a mechanism to audit or question those numbers provided by the government? Transparency is certainly an issue in Canada.

#47 Sharon Paige on 05.10.19 at 6:51 pm

Garth, any comments on the Foreign money laundering issue impacting RE prices, particularly YVR and environs, but apparently also across Canada? Would appreciate your suggestions on how this can be resolved. Seems it’s a national threat to our economy as so much of it is dependent on the real estate market. Nice jobs reports today but was it an anomaly?

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-money-laundering-in-bcs-real-estate-market-inflated-home-prices/

#48 The Real Mark on 05.10.19 at 6:53 pm

“#23 Dan on 05.10.19 at 5:30 pm
426,000 new jobs?! Could it be all the YVR and YYZ realtors getting real jobs?”

Could be. Certainly wasn’t STEM workers:

“Employment decreased by 15,000 in professional, scientific and technical services, mostly in Quebec. ”

So much for the idea that Canada has a hot STEM sector.

#49 Rexx Rock on 05.10.19 at 6:56 pm

Fed rates will go down so the stock market will go up so Trump can get re-elected.Always remember the goverment lies to its people.QE,stock buybacks,job numbers and inflation rates are lies and accounting trickery.
Look at the billions of dollars in money laundering over the years in Canada.It was purposely allowed to stoke the economy.Accept it and profit from it,thats the Canadian way.

#50 David Pylyp on 05.10.19 at 7:01 pm

That Hour’s commute may be even long with the Uber and Lyft part time drivers joining the traffic merge.

Every sidestreet and parking lot is strained with extra cars.

Maybe living with less inside the city core [horror] in a condo is the way to go!

David Pylyp
Condo Life Toronto

#51 Blacksheep on 05.10.19 at 7:22 pm

MF #25,

“Don’t underestimate provincial parties too. This is not just about the federal election. The news was good no matter how we cut it.”
———————–
It instills confidence in the masses to spend which is good thing, but one should have no illusions of this triggering breakout inflation, pushing wages to justify the BoC moving.

Expect a downward revision come November, when the new gang takes office.

#52 Flop... on 05.10.19 at 7:32 pm

30 degrees in Greater Vancouver.

Why are we talking about anything else…

M44BC

#53 Yukon Elvis on 05.10.19 at 7:37 pm

Wow! 106,500 jobs! 2% inflation! Pigs flyin’out my ass! What next?

#54 Nonplused on 05.10.19 at 7:41 pm

These job numbers smell funny to me. Who would be doing all this hiring? Oh I know it’s all the lawyers the BC government has hired to probe the high cost of gasoline in Vancouver.

The high cost of gasoline in Vancouver is due to 2 factors: Their self-imposed carbon tax and the long delays to the Trans Mountain expansion (pro tip: it will never ever get built so gasoline prices in Vancouver can only go up).

However the 700,000 lawyers the BC government has hired are going to conclude it’s price gouging by Alberta refineries. However let’s say that someone built a new refinery in Alberta with the intent to deliver fuel to Vancouver. How would they get it there? By truck or train? Well, that’s the problem now. Truck and train is more expensive than pipeline. And also not as safe and has a higher CO2 footprint. And what environmentalist in his right mind wants a fleet of trucks hauling gasoline over the Roger’s pass? And it wouldn’t reduce the price of gasoline in Vancouver as all those trucks, the diesel required to move them both ways (one direction empty), and the drivers all cost money. The price of gas in Alberta isn’t exactly cheap and the differential to Vancouver is pretty much the trucking cost. 700,000 lawyers probably couldn’t figure this out though.

So for those unfamiliar with the economics of pipelines and why there are hundreds of thousands of miles of them, they are much more efficient. Sure, it costs a lot to build one, but less than it costs to build and maintain a road. Once it’s built only the product moves so the energy required to move it is 1/3 what is required by truck (you have to count the return trip of the truck empty). And you don’t have to hire all those drivers, who have to log 3 days of driving for a return trip because they are only allowed on the road for so many hours per day. Trucks are only economic for the “last mile”. Realistically in many locations it’s the “last 100 miles” but that is also why the price also rises the further you get from a pipeline terminal. It’s always more expensive to buy fuel in the Crownest Pass than it is in Calgary, because it has to get there by truck.

People’s brains are so muddled. So many people think the limited information they have is sufficient for policy decisions when they don’t know the half of it.

#55 Casey on 05.10.19 at 7:41 pm

#121 Smoking Man on 05.10.19 at 9:44 am
So stats Canada says Canada added 106,500
Jobs in April. A record….
—————–
Because of JT. Yup, the one person who is figurehead for the country make all the difference, just like in the usa.
yup?

#56 Extron on 05.10.19 at 7:42 pm

MF
“We walk around every day with the entirety of human knowledge in our hands, but people still prefer to spew nonsense.”

MF If what you wrote there is original, may I use it?

#57 Bill Grable on 05.10.19 at 7:44 pm

ATTN BC Renovator:

[email protected]:

The nice lady at the Band

#58 Prairieboy on 05.10.19 at 7:47 pm

I’m in Vancouver regularly for work. I genuinely feel bad for my colleagues wasting 2+ hours of their life every single day commuting to work. Like has been said here before the most valuable thing you have is time. Don’t throw it away. They just accept it as something inevitable, not even realizing it can be avoided. I commute 20 minutes to work and consider that to be pushing it, anything over 30 would be a deal breaker. I’m not a moister, I just put a high value on my time.

#59 AK on 05.10.19 at 7:54 pm

“In case you missed it, the country turned out 106,500 April jobs. Yuge. In fact, that’s equivalent to the US creating a million positions in a month – which has never happened.”
=====================================
Probably fake numbers.

#60 Lost...but not leased on 05.10.19 at 8:05 pm

Re: 426,000 MORE jobs…hmmmm

A major timber company has shut down 2X4 mill for several weeks…due to slow market.

Trades are starting to feel it…only hiring journeymen with experience.

Listings for all housing types are climbing…sales are dreadful

According to one site…..a record 4 + MILLION vehicles remain UNsold.

A local mall, with low vacancy…has lost Great Clips…a Loonie store and several others.

==============

Re Stock Market…nothings changed….they want to herd the sheeple FROM the housing casino TO the stock one…(hint hint…Review Rothschild,Napoleon and Battle of Waterloo).

#61 Captain Uppa on 05.10.19 at 8:14 pm

#58 Prairie Boy

>> I commute 20 minutes to work and consider that to be pushing it, anything over 30 would be a deal breaker. I’m not a moister, I just put a high value on my time.>>

What are you doing with that extra ten minutes that you so desperately need?

#62 Yukon Elvis on 05.10.19 at 8:15 pm

#54 Nonplused on 05.10.19 at 7:41 pm
These job numbers smell funny to me. Who would be doing all this hiring?
…………………………..

The mall Santas are out mowing lawns now. Elves need to eat.

#63 AK on 05.10.19 at 8:24 pm

“and the October election doesn’t make Elizabeth May prime minister”
====================================

The equivalent in the U.S.A. will be:

President: AOC

VP: Bernie Sanders

Yikes. If that were to happen, we will be doomed as a society.

#64 Capt. Serious on 05.10.19 at 8:25 pm

Love the confirmation bias the comments bring forth. Job numbers are good, so the stats are wrong. Job numbers are bad, but they were probably worse. Literally it would take Stats Can saying everyone Larry knows is without a job to satisfy some people.
You can go read methodology and whatnot over at Stats Can. It’s not like they’re hiding it.

#65 acdel on 05.10.19 at 8:27 pm

#20 Dazed and CONfused

Good spin! Those numbers are just a drop in the bucket what could have been. But hey, go ahead cheering for the P.M. and his cronies that have done more harm to Canada then even imagined; cant wait to vote his butt out of office. The Provinces are getting it. So naive you are!!

#66 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.10.19 at 8:31 pm

@#41 Gullibulus
“These numbers coming from the most exemplary ethical government in the known history, during the election year.
Bless Canadians, they believe everything.”

+++++

I’m a tad jealous of your name.
Is it Latin for “Canadian Voter”?

#67 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.10.19 at 8:39 pm

@#57 Bill Grable
“ATTN BC Renovator:
[email protected]:
The nice lady at the Band
*****

Come on Bill!
Stop toying with the poor guy…

[email protected]

The nice lady at the brewery

#68 acdel on 05.10.19 at 8:39 pm

The banks are making a killing on Heloc’s interest rates; there is “NO” chance there are going to kill there golden goose now!

Garth knows this; but he is trying educate you that one day your goose will be sauted,fried,baked in a nice wine sauce (vegy’s) and beleive or not cooked over a campfire; not I, but kudos to the cook, that was delicious.

Avoid 2009!

#69 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.10.19 at 8:42 pm

@#52 Flop
“30 degrees in Greater Vancouver.
Why are we talking about anything else…
******
15 High Temp records fell in BC yesterday.
Even more expected today.
Lower snow pack in the mountains this past winter.
Forest fire season is about to explode.

Global warming is a farce?

#70 Bill Grable on 05.10.19 at 8:51 pm

BC Renovator….
I can’t type….sheesh.
[email protected]

The Nice Lady At The BANK.

Apologies,

#71 Mme Guillotine on 05.10.19 at 8:54 pm

Hey Rt Hon Mr Turner,
It has been so long.
Had to check back because on occasion you continue to equate cement with concrete.
Don’t regret for a minute selling my GTA property some 9 years ago and renting in interesting places.
Odd, but my capital does not seem to diminish as quickly as when I was a home “owner” (BTW thanks for trying to get property rights enshrined).
Still read regularly but haven’t commented for ages.. Thanks for your sage advise over the years.

PS Pretty good suck up for someone that doesn’t want anything.

#72 Not Sure What You Meant on 05.10.19 at 9:14 pm

Sir Garth a couple of days ago: “I’m sticking with this advice: live quietly among the masses”.

—————

Like, for example, moving to a small Atlantic town and buying the town’s iconic building? :)

#73 Yukon Elvis on 05.10.19 at 9:17 pm

Flop… on 05.10.19 at 7:32 pm
30 degrees in Greater Vancouver.

Why are we talking about anything else…

M44BC
*********

what is flop smoking?

#74 oh bouy on 05.10.19 at 9:21 pm

numbers aren’t surprising.
Business humming along here in Toronto.
If anything there isn’t enough talent to go around.
wages going up for the good ones.

#75 Brian Ripley on 05.10.19 at 9:33 pm

My Employment Rate chart (data since 2000) with an inset table showing what has happened as a 10 year percentage change shows a different view:
http://www.chpc.biz/earnings-employment.html#Rate

Not all Canadian markets have positive employment rates.

The employment rate in Toronto has been in a downtrend over the last 2 decades (at least) and the 10 year drop on April data is currently negative 0.8%… the 1o year rate is also down 0.5% overall in Ontario.

Employment in Alberta and Calgary of course is also down… 5.8% and 7% respectively over the last 10 years. Oil is slippery.

The bright spots are the polar opposites of Montreal and Vancouver where employment rates are on an uptrend since 2015

Overall in Canada the employment rate is down 0.2% in the last 10 years… the hey day was 2008 before the crash into the pit of gloom.

The key to a good job is education in a non-repetitive task field.

#76 TurnerNation on 05.10.19 at 9:39 pm

Blog score:
MF 0
Boomers 8
:(

#77 Vampire Studies (post grad) on 05.10.19 at 9:53 pm

34 Shawn

“He pointed out if there were 426,000 new workers
and if GDP has hardly budged, then productivity per
worker has declined.”

Or did 426,000 boomers retire??

#78 Slowly Boiling Frogs on 05.10.19 at 9:58 pm

#67 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.10.19 at 8:39 pm
@#57 Bill Grable
“ATTN BC Renovator:
[email protected]:
The nice lady at the Band
*****

Come on Bill!
Stop toying with the poor guy…

[email protected]

The nice lady at the brewery
——————————————-
And here I thought it was The Nice Ladies @ The Bordello.

#79 Grm on 05.10.19 at 10:04 pm

No bank is going to call/demand that helocs be repaid immediately….ever. what would they gain from that? An inventory of houses? Are they going to get into the real estate business and start selling houses too?

#80 Drill Baby Drill on 05.10.19 at 10:07 pm

The only reason there is such a growth in jobs in Canada is because of the growth in the USA economy. It has zero to do with Selfie Boy. Go ahead ask Albertans about job growth do to Selfie Boy.

#81 MF on 05.10.19 at 10:07 pm

76 TurnerNation on 05.10.19 at 9

Lol I didn’t get a chance to read yesterday’s comments but any discussion is good.

8-0 is steep, but two grand slams and an inside the park home run is all it takes to get a W :)

MF

#82 Al on 05.10.19 at 10:09 pm

“Thirty minutes? Seriously? That’s a hardship? Better to live in a concrete box so you can skateboard to work?”

That number includes the people walking and skateboarding to work. If you don’t want to live in a box and pay the same price you’re looking at over an hour easy.

That’s 21 work days a month , at at least an hour each way. 42 hours a month, or whole work week a month. A total of 12 work weeks a year. That really lowers your quality of life. A house that you never spend any time in anyway cause you’re working and commuting most of your waking hours, usually to pay for the operation of that empty 40K SUV on the 96 month (immediately underwater) finance you drive to work (you know, cause you’re already so far from work, you need to save anytime you can and also pick up and drop off off the kids at daycare before and after work, or care before and after school, cause you’re not home, you’re commuting) does not make up for it. A cascade of self defeating actions. Best to skateboard where you need to go.

#83 SCF2RIDER on 05.10.19 at 10:19 pm

Always skeptical about those job #’s. My son wa laid off for the winter and just got recalled beginning of April. We have lower seniority employees that have had their hours cut by one day a week. 150 co workers being offered incentives to retire where I work. Just saying.

#84 Vampire Studies (post grad) on 05.10.19 at 10:31 pm

69 fartz – were you here in Feb?

#85 Headhunter on 05.10.19 at 10:33 pm

kids today may wish for a concrete box but in reality cant swing it. Gig economy new job every few years or months. Even if you make 100K. in DT T.O.? Vancity?

If you really want to see what “new economy” pays. Linkedin. Connect with a “Headhunter” watch the posts and what the jobs pay and or companys offering and get back to me.

All smoke and mirrors. Math doesnt add up. Its already in motion add the money laundering and people are starting to realise.. slowly albeit that they are few “greater fools” coming to save them. 100% trustory

#86 Smartalox on 05.10.19 at 10:50 pm

People’s brains are so muddled. So many people think the limited information they have is sufficient for policy decisions when they don’t know the half of it.

Res ipsa loquitur

The price of gas in Vancouver is high because the Washington State refinery where most of it is made, was on a planned maintenance outage for the last six weeks. The fuel produced at Cherry Point refinery (connected to Trans Mountain Pipeline) is transported to the lower mainland by barge, and also distributed through a high pressure pipeline that transports jet propellant to the airport (YVR).

Canadian producers are reluctant to build new refining capacity in BC, and preferring to expand their facilities in Alberta, instead. The problem with that is that growth in Alberta (or political malcontentment) diverts supplies from BC to other markets.

This scarcity contributes to high prices, along with the greater Vancouver gas tax to fund public transit, which adds 16 cents a litre, exclusive to Greater Vancouver. Gas is a lot less expensive outside the city.

#87 not 1st on 05.10.19 at 11:45 pm

Watching Trump work is a thing of beauty. Hammers the Chinese for $100B in tariffs, takes $15B and buys farm products from farmers targeted by China and then donates the food aid to poor countries. Puts the other $85B away for US infrastructure. Guy is a true master.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/10/trumps-new-plan-to-aid-farmers-faces-many-hurdles-says-ex-usda-chief.html

“Perdue didn’t offer further details on a possible plan but Trump via Twitter on Friday indicated that the U.S. could use some of the money from tariffs on Chinese goods to buy $15 billion worth of agricultural products from American farmers, or “far more than China buys now.” The president also said U.S. agricultural products could be shopped “to poor & starving countries in the form of humanitarian assistance.”

#88 #TTC tasks me on 05.11.19 at 12:06 am

To travel the 7.6 km to work, across the construction zone that is the Toronto LRT in progress on Eglinton, is, at rush hour, 45 min. *sigh* Don’t even talk to me about the traffic lights that stop westbound traffic at Wynford Dr. for no good reason other than they had to string them across the whole roadway so, might as well use them and slow everybody down equally. Ah, socialism!

#89 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.11.19 at 12:28 am

#22 Blackdog on 05.10.19 at 5:27 pm
@Linda. No that is not a safe way to buckle up your beloved pooch though it makes for a cute picture. However there are harnesses you can buy for your dog that are designed to be used with your car seatbelt. Basically the shoulder belt loops through the back of the harness tight against the seat, not across the dog, as car seat belts are designed for humans not dogs.
————
Of course, seat belts are not designed for dogs,
Put the mutt in a cage in the back.
Safer for you and the dog.

#90 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.11.19 at 12:32 am

Have not seen the breakdown on job gains.
But I guess a big chunk would be in BC.
Job oppenings every I go.
Thank you Comrade Horgan.

#91 dosouth on 05.11.19 at 12:33 am

#24 MF on 05.10.19 at 5:33 pm
#31 Shawn Allen on 05.10.19 at 6:02 pm
#39 Tater on 05.10.19 at 6:39 pm and the rest…..

–>How about reading the report:

“The increased employment in April was driven by more employees in the private sector (+84,000), while there were also gains in public sector employment (+23,000). ”

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/190510/dq190510a-eng.htm
——————————————————————-

Read my reply….I stick by it and typical Stats Can. Like I said, part time workers pre-approved for government programs etc.

These are also “adjusted numbers” So you tell me or the world what that means? We know what it means, reports are massaged and edited and designed to fit politics of the day.

And construction employment up….give me a break. Have you been reading this blog at all or the news where new builds and construction whether commercial or residential are down and falling.

Statistics are what the publisher wants them to be and that includes what will show in June and July job stats…

Summer and seasonal jobs in other words and in plain speak

#92 Linda on 05.11.19 at 1:16 am

@Blackdog – thanks for confirming dogs can’t use seat belts the way humans can. Will have to check out the harness arrangement.

#93 Smoking Man on 05.11.19 at 1:41 am

I miss Gord Nixion and Harpo.

The freak shows that took over, well, they are insane.

I know Gartho has issues with Harpo, but dear God.
Be careful of what you wish for. T2 is nuts.

https://youtu.be/5BmEGm-mraE

#94 Paul on 05.11.19 at 1:51 am

79 Grm on 05.10.19 at 10:04 pm
No bank is going to call/demand that helocs be repaid immediately….ever. what would they gain from that? An inventory of houses? Are they going to get into the real estate business and start selling houses too?
————————————————————————————————
They don’t want to own houses, but make no mistake they will not let loan to value spread get to far out of whack. I have known businesses get shut down when the income and values drop, the banks at times feel their first loss is their best loss. When it comes to houses a lot of mortgage have been guarantied by parents by co-signing or even putting up the family home to get the “kids” in the market. So when the kids house value drops the bank can squeeze and get a large commitment.

#95 Smoking Man on 05.11.19 at 2:17 am

Having a voice, it may be a bit before your time.
Maturity will catch up. Then you will see the shit that was a needle into your brain.

I hate teachers than never had a lemonade stand as kid.

https://youtu.be/5_e-Hvg57cA

#96 Decker X on 05.11.19 at 2:21 am

#1 dosouth

Agreed, how convenient, just when Trudeau is swirling down the toilet we see the weirdest most desperate jobs turn-around in sixty years. I for one call ‘bullshit’, as do many economists. Is there an election on the horizon? Oh Yeah, and Trudeau is in the crapper.

I’m a ‘show me’ kind of guy, I only agree with what I see not what I hear coming out of the blowhole of the notoriously rotten and partisan CBC. Case in point, I’m walking through a giant sports store that pays employees $15 dollars an hour to sell sneakers and hockey sticks, you know the one. $15 bucks is what you pay for pimple cream, what I saw on the floor was an army of guys 35 to 45 , that looks like desperation, that looks like people spending on credit because auto sales have tanked, and people just want to spend because every other aspect of their lives is crap on a stick, no mustard.

Its not very smart of the Liberals to salt a mine with giant nuggets, it makes it look a little scammy, and I’m sure it is. Maybe they should have said “Oh, here is a high average number of jobs, and by the way the federal government is responsible for 90% of the summer intake for tree planters and junior forest fighters”.

When I see those ‘middle class’ men on the retail floor replaced with pimple cream because they’re making enough to pay for a mortgage and a baby factory, then I’ll make my John Hancock, but not until then. There are just too many ways the federal economists can dummy up a month of 20,000 new jobs with birth death approximations and ghostly expected seasonal farm payrolls etc, but 1,000,000 to USA equivelant is absolute lunancy, real Barnum and Bailey.

Hey, and I wonder if kids who don’t sign on to Trudeau’s abortion dogma will get a funded summer job this year? Or, is Justin still selling the idea that he’s a ‘feminist’.

But, having said that I am still an investor with money to make in mind, so, I belly-flopped into flashy consumer discretionary today, because what will all those part time jobbers want with their first paycheque? You guessed it, I ain’t naming names but you’ll figure it out. And if you’d been in the space early today you would have been nicely rewarded. Buy early because the line ups will feed the bottom lines and the next quarter numbers will be gangbuster if my guesses are right, and they usually are.

#97 East Coast Blues on 05.11.19 at 5:14 am

Not so good down East. 6000 jobs lost in Atlantic Canada which is yuge considering small labour force….

#98 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.11.19 at 6:15 am

@#84 Yukon Elvis
“were you here in Feb?”

******
Yep.
Workin outside in the freezing cold.

Lets see how this summer in BC shakes out.
I’ve lived here almost 40 years and last summer was the worst I’ve ever seen for forest fires. The smoke from the Okanagan and Pigs Gorge was pushed all the way to Victoria for weeks.
I took the ferry back to Van during the thick out it and visibility was down to a few hundred yards in Georgia Straight. If you stood outside you eyes burned.
We exceeded Beijing’s smoggy air quality.
The money launderers must of felt right at home.

But the sheeple in Van would still go jogging and bike riding…nothing like forcing camp fire smoke deep into your lungs

Wait til this August… lower snow pack.
Its already hotter than last year….
Flame on

#99 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.11.19 at 6:17 am

@# 97 east coast blues
“6000 jobs lost in Atlantic Canada…”

+++++

Maybe now they all wont vote Liberal in the next Fed election?

#100 expat on 05.11.19 at 6:44 am

The Household number is a suspect number. In the US they don’t even pay attention to it. It’s a SURVEY! Its not based on real stats.

Go watch David Rosenburg on BNN. He calls BS…. It’s either a great number or a bad sing that productivity is failing….
Sorry Garth I’ll trust Rosy on this one…

However, what this does this say imho is that the Liberals are desperate and are goosing numbers in front of an election.

The Green Party much to my chagrin is clearly the benefactor of Liberal hate and will push the Cons to victory down the middle…..

Which for Canada is great news imho. Bye bye carbon Tax and 4 years and 100 billion dollars of long term and nothing to show for it.

#101 Captain Uppa on 05.11.19 at 7:00 am

Everyone will spin news to reflect their own biases.

Truth is, Toronto is humming, as one person put it above. The people who can’t afford it are being squeezed slowly out and are upset with the high cost. But for those people, more are coming who make a lot of money.

Anecdotally speaking, I know a lot of young couples who are bringing in 180-200K a year as a household. It’s not extreme and will be new norm in GTA.

#102 jess on 05.11.19 at 7:18 am

what could go wrong …
…”German’s report notes that Canada’s Finance Ministry has acknowledged that the 2015 ruling opened a serious gap in Canada’s anti-money-laundering system, and the flaw is damaging to Canada’s global reputation.

German noted that in hearings last year in Ottawa, a committee heard that in 51 financial crime cases from 2013 to 2017, an RCMP audit had found “over 75 per cent (of the cases) involved lawyers as either a direct suspect or someone identified during the investigation.”

https://globalnews.ca/news/5263040/prime-minister-bc-money-laundering-report/

Canadian authorities are failing to catch 99.9 percent of money laundering in the country which means that US$75 billion to $100 billion of dirty money from all over the world are laundered through Canada each year, according to the author of a policy brief released Monday.The main reason for this, the brief explains, is the country’s lack of transparency surrounding beneficial owners of companies and a lack of penalty for those who break the law.

“Canada allows companies, trusts and nominees to purchase real estate without disclosing beneficial ownership; realtors are not required to collect beneficial-ownership information, and they have a dismal record of complying with their present minimal anti-money-laundering obligation,” says the report.

The country’s lax requirements when it comes to collecting information on who really owns companies and real estate “hollows out” the economy and makes ordinary Canadians poorer, the report claims.“Money laundering in Canadian real estate artificially inflates house prices and rents,” it says. “Houses sit empty… There are no occupants to buy groceries, clothing or gas, or go to restaurants, hair salons or the theatre, which reduces sales revenues for local merchants and tax revenues for the government.” Meanwhile, a report released on Wednesday found a vast trade-based money-laundering scheme in which Canadian criminals buy luxury cars and then sell them to China.The criminals not only laundered their money this way, they also managed to get millions of dollars in tax rebates, by selling used cars.

“Vancouver is becoming North America’s luxury car capital, generally, and perhaps North America’s used luxury car export capital too,” said David Eby, British Columbia’s attorney general, to the South China Morning Post.

https://www.occrp.org/en/daily/9705-report-unchecked-rampant-money-laundering-in-canada

==========

“The pattern of payments was so complex that a computer algorithm probably generated it, according to financial experts cited in a London court case.”

https://www.occrp.org/en/investigations/oligarchs-weaponized-cyprus-eranch-of-ukraines-largest-bank-to-send-5-billion-abroad

#103 the Jaguar on 05.11.19 at 7:35 am

For the love of Pete. It’s ” THE NEW LENDER AT THE BANK”. ( [email protected]).

The reference is related to the constant turnover of bank staff in that position. They burnout, leave for greener pastures, etc. CHURN, CHURN, CHURN.

#104 Tater on 05.11.19 at 8:33 am

56 Extron on 05.10.19 at 7:42 pm
MF
“We walk around every day with the entirety of human knowledge in our hands, but people still prefer to spew nonsense.”

MF If what you wrote there is original, may I use it?

—————————-
Actually my comment, feel free to use.

#105 Remembrancer on 05.11.19 at 8:50 am

#87 not 1st on 05.10.19 at 11:45 pm
Watching Trump work is a thing of beauty. Hammers the Chinese for $100B in tariffs, takes $15B and buys farm products from farmers targeted by China and then donates the food aid to poor countries. Puts the other $85B away for US infrastructure. Guy is a true master.
—————————————-
So, taxes Americans’ imports for $100B, takes $15B of that to subsidize farmers as bailout aid to resolve a problem he hamfistedly created / then sends the equivalent out country as food aid, and pockets $85B for what he claims is expenditures later on while running a huuge budget deficit?

He’s a true master alright, of flimflam if you think this is benefitting his “base” of the little people…

#106 Statistician on 05.11.19 at 9:04 am

Of course next month those numbers will be revised downward as they always are.

#107 paulo on 05.11.19 at 9:04 am

Like most i am having a hard time believing the employment numbers sure feels like the books are cooked on this report
being in the Barrie Ontario area i see little evidence of any
increase in employment,if not plenty of job losses in the area.
of course the fools whom over paid for houses up here are feeling the pain of the run up in fuel costs,for the privilege of enduring the 2 hour plus commute to the big smoke running down the demolition alley aka hwy 400.

any way it is mothers day weekend, happy mothers day to all of the wonderful moms whom keep it all together
cheers enjoy your day

#108 MF on 05.11.19 at 9:44 am

91 dosouth on 05.11.19 at 12:33 am

Again, just read the site to find out what “adjusted numbers means”.

In this context it means ensuring outlying data points that are based on extraneous variables like weather and statutory holidays are not able to skew the results of the survey, and allow for trends to be more clear.

Nothing political.

Trends are what is important, and the trend is generally positive job wise (unemployment ticking down).

http://www23.statcan.gc.ca/imdb/p2SV.pl?Function=getSurvey&SDDS=3701#a2

So basically, unless you have your own questionnaire with a sample size of hundreds of thousands across all demographics and geography in Canada, your assertion that these stats are political is only a weak theory based on emotion.

MF

#109 SoggyShorts on 05.11.19 at 10:04 am

#87 not 1st on 05.10.19 at 11:45 pm
Watching Trump work is a thing of beauty. Hammers the Chinese for $100B in tariffs, takes $15B and buys farm products from farmers targeted by China and then donates the food aid to poor countries. Puts the other $85B away for US infrastructure. Guy is a true master.
**************************
Do you understand what tarriffs are and who pays them? A “Chinese tarriff” is a tax paid by American companies to buy Chinese products.

The idea is to encourage companies to shop locally, but if they don’t it’s just a tax.
Guess who ultimately pays for it? Obviously, the price increase in production is passed on to the consumer.

So basically Trump is taking money from some Americans, giving 15% of it to other American companies and kept the other 85%.

Unless of course the American companies actually do decide to shop locally, then there will be zero tariffs paid and Trump is spending 15B that doesn’t exist.

Read the damn article that you linked- it basically says that what he tweeted isn’t possible.

From the post:
“it all comes down to whether China, in this case, would rather try to maintain its market share or its profit margins. If it chooses the first, it will cut its prices to fully offset the impact of our tariffs — keeping the prices that U.S. consumers pay the same — which is basically the same thing as paying those tariffs itself. If it chooses the second, though, it won’t cut its prices at all, and will pass on the cost of these tariffs to its American customers instead …

. . . Which is precisely what a team of researchers from Princeton, Columbia and the New York Federal Reserve found happened in the first year of Trump’s trade war. The simple story is that, because Chinese companies didn’t charge less, U.S. households ended up paying more. U.S. businesses did, too, but the U.S. government still didn’t get enough money from its tariffs to make up for these other losses. As a result, the country as a whole was slightly poorer.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2019/05/09/trumps-trade-war-is-an-intellectual-disaster/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.e9dd6736a236

A true master indeed.

#110 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.11.19 at 10:06 am

@#84 Vampyre Tattoos burn in sunlight
“69 fartz – were you here in Feb?

*******

My apologies to Yukon Elvis for the previous #84 comment attributed to him. It was early in the am.

As for RECORD BREAKING TEMPS!
Another sweltering day in BC!
26 temps SHATTERED by not one degree cel but 3 degrees Celcius ( almost 10 F ?).
Some temp record keeping go back to the 1870’s

https://www.citynews1130.com/2019/05/10/heat-records-broken-friday-second-day/

But of course the climate deniers will continue to ignore what is happening all around them.

#111 Remembrancer on 05.11.19 at 10:16 am

#103 the Jaguar on 05.11.19 at 7:35 am
For the love of Pete. It’s ” THE NEW LENDER AT THE BANK”. ( [email protected]).

The reference is related to the constant turnover of bank staff in that position. They burnout, leave for greener pastures, etc. CHURN, CHURN, CHURN.
———————————————
Sorry, just b/c you use all caps doesn’t make it correct:

The Nice Lady @ The Bank

Refers to helpful smiley-faced sales people with the title ‘advisor’ pushing the banks retail offerings as opposed to the other half of bank employees who have as part of their job title ‘vice president’ (which is nice to impress their mom but otherwise a dime a dozen)…

#112 Remembrancer on 05.11.19 at 10:34 am

#85 Headhunter on 05.10.19 at 10:33 pm
If you really want to see what “new economy” pays. Linkedin. Connect with a “Headhunter” watch the posts and what the jobs pay and or companys offering and get back to me.
————————————————
Linkedin? The Facebook for “atta boss” suck ups and “see I’m social media savvy” BNN / The Economist / HBR reposters? Nice place for a free web / resume link – but glassdoor and indeed for job postings / salaries probably better time spent overall… while headhunters have value, personal network (and not the fake 3rd degree of separation LI network) is probably a more consistent source and for anyone in post secondary – be in or get in a co-op program…

#113 Love Guru's Dad on 05.11.19 at 10:54 am

#54 Nonplused on 05.10.19 at 7:41 pm

People’s brains are so muddled. So many people think the limited information they have is sufficient for policy decisions when they don’t know the half of it.
————
Sounds like you know half of it.

#114 Blackdog on 05.11.19 at 11:04 am

@Linda, you are welcome for the “doggie seatbelt” information. More convenient and safer than using a cage. The brand we bought (one harness for each dog) is manufactured by Kurgo (active dog travel and outdoor products) and can be purchased online at amazon.ca. Note that it is crash tested.

#115 Dan August on 05.11.19 at 11:06 am

If the jobs picture is so great and the economy is better than they thought then why is the 30 year Canada bond at 1.95% and all other rates so low?

It is because it is not true. The economy is getting worse and carbon taxes, property taxes etc. and debt is rising fast.

It is smoke and mirrors people.

#116 Blackdog on 05.11.19 at 11:10 am

@Linda, Kurgo also has doggie booster seats for small dogs so they can safely be buckled in and see out the window too. :)

#117 IHCTD9 on 05.11.19 at 11:14 am

#101 Captain Uppa on 05.11.19 at 7:00 am

Anecdotally speaking, I know a lot of young couples who are bringing in 180-200K a year as a household. It’s not extreme and will be new norm in GTA.
————

Going to be a looong time before 200k is a normal income in Toronto when they’re currently sitting at a 78k household median.

#118 millmech on 05.11.19 at 11:20 am

#94 Paul
You are correct that they are unlikely to force the sale of the house due to a large HELOC, but what they will do is call you in for a meeting.
At this meeting they will express their “concern” about your debt ratios and will rate you as a higher default risk and therefore charge you a premium for carrying this risk of anywhere from .5% to 5% which they are allowed to do at anytime.
They may also suggest a loan (at a higher rate) to help get your numbers in line, the last thing financial institutions want is for you to be financially literate and not pay them interest/fees.
They know everything about your finances and know just how much to squeeze you to pad the bottom line, that is why the banks are richer than you think!

#119 Yukon Elvis on 05.11.19 at 11:59 am

From Castanet news Kelowna, Sat. morning May 11 :

A fibre shortage has forced the permanent closure of Tolko’s Quesnel sawmill and a shift reduction at its Kelowna operation.
Vernon-based Tolko Industries announced the moves Friday.
The Quest Wood sawmill in Quesnel will be permanently shuttered, and Tolko’s Kelowna mill will see a reduction from two shifts to one.
………………..
The union representing staff at CTV News says restructuring announced today has impacted jobs at stations in at least five provinces, and will result in a net reduction of staffing.
Unifor says the stations affected by restructuring include the CTV1 stations in Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario and Quebec.Unifor says the stations affected by restructuring include the CTV1 stations in Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario and Quebec.
……………………..
The Globe and Mail has offered its employees a voluntary severance program in an effort to cut costs.
Globe employees were told Wednesday that the newspaper is looking to cut $10 million annually from its operating budget.
A Globe spokeswoman says employees have until May 29 to enrol in the voluntary program and the company will decide in July if involuntary layoffs are necessary.

#120 framjam on 05.11.19 at 12:16 pm

re. locking into <3% mortgage:

How high is it expected to get? Is it worth breaking our current locked-in rate of 2.29, which isn't due for renewal until Sept2020?

#121 not so liquid in calgary on 05.11.19 at 12:36 pm

@ Blackdog on 05.10.19 at 5:27 pm

=========================================

hover your mouse over the photo… up comes the phrase (lower left corner of page) “BIG-modified.jpeg?”

So what? – Garth

#122 Decker X on 05.11.19 at 12:57 pm

#108 MF

Again, just read the site to find out what “adjusted numbers means”.

Careful, ‘adjusted numbers’ that follow within weeks of a Liberal announcement are always ‘adjusted’ down, usually way down. Yesterdays jobs numbers are nothing but desperate Liberal PR. Likely bought from Gerry Butts propaganda/lobbyist’manipulator firm ‘The Euraisia Group’, who as we found out was the fetid pile of human turd that was paying Gerry Butts to secretly feather dust Justin Trudeau’s backside while Butts is still acting in tandem with David Axelrod to write Trudeau’s speeches.

LOL, did anyone catch the next wave of the sympathy barrage with Maggie (Who_ Trudeau ) speaking in Chicago? OMG, Mommy to the rescue. Is it any wonder the Chinese are kicking Justins patoot on prisoners, international affairs, and canola?

Who lives in Chicago except Trudeau’s American Democrat backers? Why does Trudeau speak at a Democratic funded NY university for the lickspittle Trump Hate crowd?

Aren’t these the same Democrats who spent millions on the Hate Harper Campaign and juiced Justins election fund the same Canada Hate crowd that have killed hundreds of thousands of Canadian jobs in the energy sector, and cost hundreds of billions in lost Canadian tax revenue?

So who is Maggie speaking for, and to whom, for what reason?

#123 Braj on 05.11.19 at 1:17 pm

“Finally, most of the kids say they’d rather have a smaller dwelling closer to work than a more commodious one further afield. “This may be influenced by longer work commutes,” the pollster observed, “with Toronto and Vancouver residents reporting 34 minute and 30 minute one-way travel times both to/from work.”

Thirty minutes? Seriously? That’s a hardship? Better to live in a concrete box so you can skateboard to work?

Big reset coming in a few years. Condo alert.”

Sorry Garth, but your old man is showing. Travel times are worse than this by a significant factor. Add parking and gas to that equation. It’s much more financially prudent to not have a vehicle if you live close to work. That money can go to investment accounts.

Commute time is a significant factor in quality of life and on health as well. Don’t be so quick to dismiss it as a driving force.

The 30-minute reference was not mine. Put your glasses on. – Garth

#124 Guy in Calgary on 05.11.19 at 1:18 pm

Used to commute 45mins on way. Life is too short for that. 5-10 minutes one way now and I am much happier.

#125 Andrea on 05.11.19 at 1:40 pm

Wow, that is a lot of household debt even with the increments in jobs. And I’m not innocent… We used to have a LOC with our mortgage in 2008 when we then discovered your blog and started slowly converting our ways of living to fit your ideas which were very new to what we had been taught. I have really enjoyed being out of debt by renting, staying off credit/loans, starting up some small diversified accounts and investments and using my RRSP to change my career to one that has a solid pension, benefits and locations close to home. I’m glad jobs rates and quality are up because people need work, but how and when will Canadians live within their means?! How do we educate and model this on a larger scale? There are lots of early parenting books out there… maybe we need one on teaching our maturing children about the topic.

#126 DON on 05.11.19 at 1:49 pm

#110 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.11.19 at 10:06 am

@#84 Vampyre Tattoos burn in sunlight
“69 fartz – were you here in Feb?

*******

My apologies to Yukon Elvis for the previous #84 comment attributed to him. It was early in the am.

As for RECORD BREAKING TEMPS!
Another sweltering day in BC!
26 temps SHATTERED by not one degree cel but 3 degrees Celcius ( almost 10 F ?).
Some temp record keeping go back to the 1870’s

https://www.citynews1130.com/2019/05/10/heat-records-broken-friday-second-day/

But of course the climate deniers will continue to ignore what is happening all around them.

*********************

Forest Fire in Sayward BC, – smoke seen in Comox Valley.

They have shut down the bush in the South Island.

No substantial rain yet this Spring…Dry out there.

Not looking good for the summer.

#127 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.11.19 at 2:16 pm

@#126 DON
“No substantial rain yet this Spring…Dry out there.
Not looking good for the summer.”

++++++

Yep,
And then just to add fuel (literally) to the forest fires.
We have a native species of undergrowth in BC’s forests mysteriously dying?

https://www.cheknews.ca/experts-say-drought-and-cold-could-be-responsible-for-salal-die-off-559734/

Climate change?
Naaah , couldnt be.

#128 tccontrarian on 05.11.19 at 2:18 pm

For the love of Pete. It’s ” THE NEW LENDER AT THE BANK”. ( [email protected]).
—————-
You just ruined for me pal – I thought it was:

The Nude Lady @ The Beach (as in Wreck Beach).

:)

TCC

#129 Steve on 05.11.19 at 4:24 pm

Hi Garth,

Long time reader, made close to 10k and going up thanks to your 60/40 portfolio. One of my favoure quotes is “Be aggressively conservative” when it comes to my finances. It’s from one of your blog posts.

However, I have an IPO question. Around the Uber IPO I was trying to understand how a private company turns into a public company. I know they sell shares to the public, but for me it’s more interesting what happens to the guys that held shares privately. They get the same percentage that they owned privately from the total shares issued, or it works in some other way.

A quick examples, let’s say $100 000 IPO and issued 100k shares. The founder has before IPO 50% of the privately held shares. Whould he get 50k of the shares when they’re issued to the public? And also how much shares percentage wise are sold to the public. For Uber was 8.1 bil and valued at 85 bil, so less than 10% were sold to the public?

Thanks for all your advices!

Steve

#130 Nonplused on 05.11.19 at 11:50 pm

#86 Smartalox

Your points are valid, but I take issue with them.

Why would BC think it’s better to buy fuel from Washington rather than have diverse fuel sources that can compete? And why do they need an investigation into high gas prices if the Washington refinery is shut down for maintenance?

The Vancouver transit tax is their own doing and an investigation into the affect of that is not required.

Why would anybody build a refinery in Vancouver without Trans Mountain? Where would they get the oil to refine? From Saudi Arabia by boat? But I thought boats with oil on them were bad?

#131 Fitnessmenz on 05.14.19 at 1:16 pm

thanks for confirming dogs can’t use seat belts the way humans can. Will have to check out the harness arrangement.