The smug Millennial

Mike has perfect the mandatory suck-up. “I’m a faithful follower of the blog and I’m writing today to thank you for the free investment help you’ve offered me since 2014,” he writes.

Turns out he’s a 37-year-old single engineer dude who moved to the GTA that year with $450,000, “discovered Garth” and decided not to buy real estate. Instead, he invested in financial stuff. “After nearly 5 years of blog-readership I am writing you because for the period ending April, 2019, my net worth is $821,129, and this is a big deal since much of it is US$-denominated, which equals…. $1,005,238.

“Now I can join the ranks of the smug Millennials! It was worth the sacrifices, to be financially secure. I’m not sure what I would have done if you had not convinced me to be a ‘lowly’ renter. Thank you!!”

There’s a point to quoting Mike, other than making me feel good (which is enough reason, of course). He’s right. He’s smart, astute, focused. And being an engineer, he probably has a spreadsheet for everything down to oral hygiene.

So in 2014 the average detached Toronto house was changing hands for $1,056,114. Five Aprils later that has risen to $1,355,764. If Mike had chosen the route Re/Max wanted his gain would have been – after buying and selling costs – about $172,000, or 16%. Meanwhile a balanced and diversified portfolio has doubled that 3.25% annual rate of return. So even though the housing return was tax-free and the portfolio was taxed (albeit at an advantaged rate), the conclusion is stark. Mikey’s a 1%er now, with seven figures of investible assets. If he keeps this up, at age 47 he’ll have $2 million and can retire with a lifetime income of about ten grand a month.

Conclusion: houses don’t make you wealthy or financially secure. Even in the nation’s best market. And even after the grandest housing boom of all time.

The trumpets rang out Monday as the local real estate board gleefully announced a 16% jump in sales over last April and a little price pop (at least in 416 – the burbs languished). “The strong year-over-year growth in sales is obviously a good news story and likely represents some catchup from a slow start to the year,” said head realtor Garry Bhaura.

So why’s the GTA so out of step with the rest of the country last month? Or is it?

As Mike’s experience underscores, you just can’t believe everything your mom or a real estate board tells you. Canada’s housing cult has led legions of people into massive debt and a serious lack of diversification. So when property values waver, it can make a big difference to overall financial stability.

Just look at the real estate gold standard of a single-detached house in 416. Last month the price was $1.355 million, unchanged from 2018 – which represents a loss once inflation and carrying costs are factored in. Two years ago the same property was valued at $1.578 million. When you blend in buying costs (land transfer tax and legals) as well as selling commission, the loss totals more than $350,000 – a decline of 22%. And unlike a financial portfolio plop, this one is not tax-deductible. Ouch.

Yes, with a house you get to live there. But during the time you also pay property taxes, or condo fees, maintenance, higher insurance premiums and have a huge pile of equity producing nothing. Rent is cheaper. You see, without steady annual appreciation, residential real estate’s a non-performing asset. Tart it up all you want, same outcome. A house is not a financial plan. It’s an emotional asset.

By the way, this statement is worth noting. It’s from the chief market analyst of the Toronto Real Estate Board:

“While sales were up year-over-year in April, it is important to note that they remain well-below April levels for much of the past decade. Many potential home buyers arguably remain on the sidelines as they reassess their options in light of the OSFI-mandated two percentage point stress test on mortgages. Longer term borrowing costs have trended lower this year and the outlook for short-term rates, for which the Bank of Canada holds the lever, is flat to down this year. Unfortunately, against this backdrop, we have seen no movement toward flexibility in the OSFI stress test.”

Is the stress test really to blame for more and more moisters deciding not to shoulder three decades of debt in order to buy an insanely-inflated house that will suck off their savings and jack up risk?

Or is this all Mike’s fault? You know, for using his noodle?

Maybe there’s hope yet.

118 comments ↓

#1 Sask to AB on 05.06.19 at 4:18 pm

Thanks for sharing this Garth. It is really important that people start to realize it is going to be rough sailing ahead……… and prepare accordingly.

#2 wallflower on 05.06.19 at 4:27 pm

TREB the icon for today’s fakenews syndrome.
TREB is having their cake and eating it, too.
Stress test is a problem, but sales are uppa uppa uppa.

“While sales were up year-over-year in April, it is important to note that they remain well-below April levels for much of the past decade. Many potential home buyers arguably remain on the sidelines as they reassess their options in light of the OSFI-mandated two percentage point stress test on mortgages. Longer term borrowing costs have trended lower this year and the outlook for short-term rates, for which the Bank of Canada holds the lever, is flat to down this year. Unfortunately, against this backdrop, we have seen no movement toward flexibility in the OSFI stress test,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Chief Market Analyst.

#3 Brian Ripley on 05.06.19 at 4:30 pm

My Toronto Housing chart is up with April data
http://www.chpc.biz/toronto-housing.html

The sales breakout egged the FOMO crowd to push Toronto condo prices to a new peak.

Sheesh… if you take the time to figure it out, as an investment, it’s a negative yielding and depreciating asset

Toronto vs Vancouver housing:
http://www.chpc.biz/compare-toronto–vancouver.html

HIGHER PRICES
50% more for a SFD in VAN
19% more for a Town House in VAN
12% more for a Condo in VAN

1.3 more Listings in TOR than VAN
4.9 x more Sales in TOR than VAN
Monthly Absorption Rate TOR:VAN = 4

Ratio of SFD to Strata
1 VAN SFD = 1.8 VAN Town Houses
1 TOR SFD = 1.6 TOR Town Houses
1 VAN SFD = 2.2 VAN Condos
1 TOR SFD = 1.7 TOR Condos

10 Year SFD Inflation Rate:
​VAN = 111% and TOR = 114%

​​Annual Precipitation VAN:TOR = 2:1

#4 Victoria Real Estate Update on 05.06.19 at 4:32 pm

Question for you Garth:

Which do you think has had a bigger effect on its country’s housing market:

* 9 recent rate increases in the States, or

* 5 recent rate hikes and the stress test in Canada? (You can also add in the 2 rate drops in 2015 that happened in Canada and not in the States.)

Perhaps you could do a post on this. Cheers.

#5 Victoria Real Estate Update on 05.06.19 at 4:52 pm

# 2 wallflower

That seems to be the m.o. of those in the housing industry.

Real estate agents and their boards have been doing what they do best – massaging the stats – to give potential buyers the impression that all is good with sales and prices (buy now!) while, at the same time, complaining constantly to Ottawa to get rid of the stress test and make other policy changes that could potentially boost sales activity.

Based on the actions of those in the housing industry, the housing market can be both strong (attention buyers: our (massaged) stats are strong, buy now!) and weak at the same time (attention Ottawa: sales and prices are falling, please intervene again with more bubble-blowing policy to turn the market around.)

Is there a “profession” more self-serving than that of a real estate agent?

#6 Ace Goodheart on 05.06.19 at 5:09 pm

You’re talking about “average house prices” and mixing that in with specific portfolio returns. This is a statistical error.

You have to look at specific houses, and then specific portfolios.

For example, a $450,000 house in inner city Toronto (which could still be purchased in 2014 in neighbourhoods that had not yet gentrified) is worth around $2,000,000.00 now.

If you bought that million dollar house, yes it would only have risen by about $350,000 in the five year period.

But again, that is a general look at averages, when you are then looking at a specific portfolio and its returns. I could show you many portfolios that lost money over that same five year period.

Apples to oranges Garth. General to specific. It doesn’t work here.

It works a lot better than you cherry-picking one mythical property (and it is mythical). – Garth

#7 paddy twinkle toes on 05.06.19 at 5:16 pm

Mr Poloz
Next time please don’t take 50 minutes to say 3 points:

-“were gonna push mortgage backed securities”
-“the shared equity mortgage is available”
-“the system is not broken”

Good lord, he likes to hear himself talk.
His speech reminds me of some officer rambling on about nothing while everyone is standing at attention during a military parade….”WRAP IT UP BRO!”

#8 George Bakein on 05.06.19 at 5:28 pm

Great Job Mike! We are really happy for you, and as they say, the first million is the toughest! Enjoy the next several that follow and Enjoy the ride!

#9 Dolce Vita on 05.06.19 at 5:34 pm

Alas, the vision of “Fabio” Kenney vis-à-vis Hide your daughters has been usurped, new watermark:

“…has a spreadsheet for everything down to oral hygiene.”

THAT was good.

As a former Engineer, SO true.

I mean, who says “…my net worth is $821,129”?

I am shocked (and dismayed) that he omitted the ¢ portion.

—————————————–

The RE Board, the Banks and anyone else that thinks the Stress Test is to blame for decade low sales and its removal, the remedy, is delusional.

Watched a Steve Saretsky video from a couple of days ago on YouTube and he said consumers lack confidence (the YVR RE market), set to that time mark:

https://youtu.be/p4QA9YvMRZ8?t=638

I still maintain a recession probably afoot, slow growth the best we can hope for. Forget about that the last 4 of 6 GDP reports had negative MoM growth, this is the number that floors me (GDP growth rate from Sept. 2018 –> Feb. 2019):

+0.19%

or +0.38% annualized.

And they’re forecasting a 1.2% GDP growth rate for 2019? Good luck with that.

Canadians are not stupid. They sense something is wrong. Right now, they’re erring on the side of caution and not taking on large expenditures like home mortgages in the midst of an uncertain economy and of course 70% of Canadians are carrying, on average, epic debt).

Just like Mr. Market hates UNCERTAINTY, well apparently so does the Canadian Consumer.

Also, you know that when the “blame game” starts, the games already over.

#10 Catalyst on 05.06.19 at 5:39 pm

Wow, the big P out there pushing MBS today. It must be bad behind the curtains. I anxiously await your analysis!

#11 Cto on 05.06.19 at 5:41 pm

Garth no disrespect for I agree with you that hoses and especially condos in Toronto are still way overpriced.

However I just about choked on your example of the engineer guy. Really? he turned $450,000 into a million in 5 years???? Seriously? Using a relatively safe portfolio a 6-7% can’t even come close to this. I know because my portfolio manager has been trying for 5 years.

How much did he have to contribute to this plan yearly?

Obviously he fed his portfolio, not his house. – Garth

#12 Andrew on 05.06.19 at 5:42 pm

Well done Mike, good story to hear.

On an unrelated note, I’ll just leave this here for those interested:

Fidelity offering bitcoin trading within weeks

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-06/fidelity-said-to-offer-cryptocurrency-trading-within-a-few-weeks

#13 Fleeced Indeed on 05.06.19 at 5:46 pm

Apologies for the off topic question and if it has been answered previously.

Does anyone here know of a good vendor for converting Canadian Dollars to US Dollars? My employees and myself want to convert our CAD to USD with as low fees as we can. Banks are usually not good for this kind of thing, so we are looking for a reputable, reliable vendor.

The amounts range from 5 figures to well into 6 figures. If it makes sense to pool on this end and divide on that end, we can look into that too (although the legalities might get too complicated).

Thanks in advance for any help.

#14 I warned people a year ago... on 05.06.19 at 5:47 pm

Right on Mike. Now I bet you are going to go buy a house. I wonder what that investment would have done if it was 5K?

You see, when you don’t have money and nothing to lose, you leverage up and put the risk on the banks and getting a mortgage gives you that 450,000k investment that 90% of Canadians don’t have. It’s is too easy. People can’t resist, unless outright declined like nowadays.

Now add in the real fuel gassing real estate.

Dirty money has switched from BC to GTA pumping up the dirty money flows into that GTA, Ottawa, Montreal. It is still active in BC, just not as hot as it used to be.

Probably just a coincidence GTA is having this miraculous stabilization of people buying multi-million dollar homes. Must be that excellent wage growth.

Crunch time for public inquiry in BC to be called within a month.

Get ready for a Federal interception to bury this.

Maybe Poloz will deliver the news himself that a public inquiry has been put to rest and the BoC has it all figured out.

I am adding May 6 to my timeline. This will be referenced in the upcoming movie.

#15 AK on 05.06.19 at 5:50 pm

#140 T on 05.06.19 at 9:28 am
“Ironic waking up to a stock market being pummeled by a few tweets.
And some how that asset is “safe”
We shall see how this unfolds now….Ryan and the gang will likely need to dust off some more charts that show the “hot hand” theory works.
Till it doesn’t”
—————————————————————-
“The market has been sitting near record highs. A drop of 200, 300 or 500 points is meaningless. Stop being a drama queen.”
– Garth
====================================

Right, It really got pummeled all right. LMFAO..

S&P : (-13)

DOW : (-66)

#16 Long-Time Lurker on 05.06.19 at 5:58 pm

#47 Flop… on 05.05.19 at 7:00 pm
What is my roll on this blog now?

Besides waterboy, I’m not sure….

>Comic relief. The comments section is about as cheerful as a morgue.

#17 Dolce Vita on 05.06.19 at 6:09 pm

#11 Cto

PV = $450,000
FV = $821,129
n = 5 years

∴ i = 12.8% compound annual interest rate or in Smug Millennial Engineering speak:

12.781996%

(sorry, but I could not resist).

And Almighty Garth, how ever did our intrepid Smug Millennial Engineer manage that return (and I already read the rebuttal about not buying home, for once, recycling not the answer)???

——————————

Yes, I know Garth…Buonanotte.

#18 Evangeline on 05.06.19 at 6:19 pm

#13 “Does anyone here know of a good vendor for converting Canadian Dollars to US Dollars?”

You could start a discount broker account that has both a USA account and Canadian account; then transfer your Canadian dollars to the US account. As far as I know, there are no transaction fees for doing transfers between USA and Canada.

#19 Neil on 05.06.19 at 6:19 pm

#13

Try Calforex

Or even better yet open an interactive brokers forex account.

#20 Dharma Bum on 05.06.19 at 6:21 pm

It has to be gratifying to Garth when a reader recounts his financial experience based on the advice given on the blog.

Juxtapose that scenario with those that succumbed to FOMO and other emotional reasons for craving a house in the GTA at an astronomically overpriced level, and the results are astounding.

Life changing, actually.

To have the equivalent of over $1,000,000 in liquid assets by one’s 30’s is no small feat, especially in these economically challenging times for young people.

The confidence, peace of mind, and sense of accomplishment one gets from having this sort of financial security at such a young age (with the potential to double it, and more, every decade or so) opens up myriad opportunities in one’s life.

Imagine – the dude pretty much has the flexibility to do whatever his heart desires.

Compare that to the suckers that have encumbered themselves with ridiculously stupid high debt for an overpriced house in a less than mediocre city.
They are now hopelessly tied to that albatross, lest they forego tens of thousands of dollars, or more, due to value depreciation, fees, commissions, HST, legal costs, etc.

This “kid” has earned the right to be smug and self assured.

Way to go.
You’ve set yourself up to be a 50 year old dharma bum!
Live it up.

#21 theoryAndPractice on 05.06.19 at 6:32 pm

#11 Cto on 05.06.19 at 5:41 pm

Garth no disrespect for I agree with you that hoses and especially condos in Toronto are still way overpriced.

However I just about choked on your example of the engineer guy. Really? he turned $450,000 into a million in 5 years???? Seriously? Using a relatively safe portfolio a 6-7% can’t even come close to this. I know because my portfolio manager has been trying for 5 years.

How much did he have to contribute to this plan yearly?

Obviously he fed his portfolio, not his house. – Garth

———————
I agree with you Garth, housing vs investments argument but :

Let’s talk worst case 450K was in CAD it requires almost 18% net return 5 consecutive years That include last year as well 2018. 450*1.18^5=1.029M

Let’s then talk about best case 450K was in USD all of it , ~750K USD it has to be now to be in CAD $1M I’m using round numbers.

That equals to if it has done 450K *1.11^5 = 758K => ~1.020 M today.
So he did min 11% percent consecutively (all in USD) 5 years or he did 18% each year (all in CAD)

Since the article never talks about each year contributions to existing investment , I will consider it ZERO in calculations.

Well if he did NOT add it new money himself each year, the range of gain is :
11% to %18 , 5 consecutive year ! Where markets tanked in 2018 it is great skill.

In Conclusion, Congrats ! ( .. or troll ? )

Another conclusion : Garth, you must hire that guy !

Obviously he added to his portfolio rather than feeding a property. You can stop calculating now. – Garth

#22 Reximus on 05.06.19 at 6:34 pm

was ‘mike’s’ only alternative to renting a Sfd? the guy is single….why not do the comparison with a property he would more likely have bought, which is probably a property he actually rented

#23 Gender Studies Graduate on 05.06.19 at 6:39 pm

“After nearly 5 years of blog-readership I am writing you because for the period ending April, 2019, my net worth is $821,129, and this is a big deal since much of it is US$-denominated, which equals…. $1,005,238.

Mike, will you marry me? I’m ready to settle down after spending most of my 20s fighting against the patriarchy on campus by falsely accusing men of color of crimes, and also studying for a Masters in Gender Studies. I currently work as a barista at Starbucks.

We can use our $1,005,238 together and buy a house in a trendy part of Toronto. We will raise a family together and after ten years, I will have to move on and take care of the kids by myself as an independent human being.

#24 Dean the Mechanic on 05.06.19 at 6:40 pm

To clarify, using Garth’s numbers as base assumptions:
$450K starting equity. At 7.5% returns and $30K year contributions, in 5 years it’s in that $820K range, much of it in US = $1MM

The ‘average’ house was just over $1.05MM. Assuming 20% down that is $211K, leaving 239K to compound at the same 7.5%.

At the end of 5 years, that property is worth $1.35MM, meaning down payment plus value growth is worth $538K Cad. Assuming his previous contributions went to his mortgage instead and that half of it was principle (and half interest), his home equity would add roughly $75K for total equity of roughly $613.5K (down payment, value growth, principle repayment). The $239K financial portfolio compounded at the same 7.5% and is worth $303K. Let’s simplify and assume all in USD at 1.3 FX and it’s worth $394K CAD. Therefore his total net worth would be $1.07MM CAD, roughly even to his portfolio only approach.

These calculations are largely meaningless. Any number of assumptions can change the outcomes, from amount of leverage used, tax assumptions, maintenance, etc. The real question is a) how liquid do you want or need to be b) how much leverage is appropriate and c) what risk profile will you accept.

Changing the assumptions on leverage, the actual mortgage repayment, or even selecting a different time period, and the outcome changes significantly. The question isn’t what performed better over a certain period, it’s about what is a better process overall, taking into account personal circumstances.

Real estate is the only form of leverage where government and banks encourage you to leverage up to 20:1. Because of that, the outcome can cut drastically in either direction…

#25 Dolce Vita on 05.06.19 at 6:43 pm

#17 Dolce Vita

Idiot me. I forgot human nature.

If the Engineer was getting superior returns and/or was just plain diligent, he would have kept feeding his portfolio with annual savings over those 5 years (over and above the start $450 K).

∴ i < 12.8%

and now, credible.

#26 Linda on 05.06.19 at 6:44 pm

Another excellent photo of the day & by all means, let’s blame Mike:) Encouraging to hear that people are using the tools provided to ensure financial success.

Rent or buy, one must live somewhere. In more affordable locations the cost of purchasing vs. renting is much more balanced. Of the two options for shelter I prefer ownership over renting. Life is too short to live it in beige, however practical a color choice it may be!

#27 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.06.19 at 6:49 pm

Well fart in an elevator and call it stinky!

Mike the Millennial is a hard worker and is well on his way to financial freedom.
Amazing.
Perhaps Millennial Surrealist could learn a thing or two from Mike’s example….but I doubt it……its easier to drink whine.

#28 Wow on 05.06.19 at 6:50 pm

With a 20% down payment on that million dollar house, he basically doubled his money in 5 years.

#29 Tony on 05.06.19 at 6:52 pm

#13
Research Norbert’s gambit and DLR>DLR.U

#30 Shawn on 05.06.19 at 6:56 pm

The Nasdaq has doubled in less than 5 years. QQQ

#31 Reximus on 05.06.19 at 6:56 pm

Mike would have used 50k as a dp on a 400k condo and got a mortgage at 3% (paid instead of rent) and invested the rest. ..that condo would be worth a lot more now as well as his investments and he would be more diversified

he’d be fine either way.

The house humpers just can’t quit. Amusing. – Garth

#32 Shawn on 05.06.19 at 6:58 pm

If the bull market spreads its wings globally, the Nasdaq could double again in 4 years. ~18% annualized return

#33 Shawn on 05.06.19 at 7:04 pm

I love how the mills have barely begun to invest in the public equity markets.

They will have to if they want to retire. They’ll probably drive the S&P500 to 10000 by 2030.

#34 Reximus on 05.06.19 at 7:09 pm

the house humpers just can’t quit? why would a financial advisor ever be against asset diversity

this was a bait / switch post and you know it ☺

#35 Sasquatch on 05.06.19 at 7:19 pm

#7 paddy twinkle toes on 05.06.19 at 5:16 pm

The worst are the officers who start with “I’m gonna keep this short”; they never do. The officers who keep speeches short don’t need to point it out.

#36 baloney Sandwitch on 05.06.19 at 7:23 pm

#17 Dolce Vita

Checkout the S&P 500 calculator with dividend reinvested. Pretty close to 12%. I assumed our hero kept all his loot in a registered account and avoided taxes.
https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/

#37 Bdwy sktn on 05.06.19 at 7:30 pm

13.
Norberts is what u want.

1.move cash to RBC direct investment act.
2.buy RY in cdn on tsx
3.sell RY on NYSE for usd
4. Move proceeds to usd acct.

#38 Barb on 05.06.19 at 7:31 pm

Well done, Mike.
Attaboy.

#39 Million on 05.06.19 at 7:35 pm

Hit my first million last month. 42 yes old. Took 17 years. Worth the sacrifices. Now technically I can get my second in 7 years. Saving and investing works. Fancy that.

#40 Vanrentor on 05.06.19 at 7:47 pm

Another great dog picture.

Do your Porsche driving assistants scour the internet to find the pics or do you do it yourself :)

#41 Michelle on 05.06.19 at 7:50 pm

Hi Garth, so in 10 years all goes well mike will have a cool 2 million and ur saying 10k per month so 120k per year. So ur saying he will get 6% a year in dividends then?
Thx
Michelle

#42 NoName on 05.06.19 at 7:51 pm

Ok, mark the engineer started with 450k, shoved in 2.7k every month at 7% after 5yrs mike had 820k +. What i would like to know what mikie did i 2015 and 2018?

Answer me mike, great knowledge you poses, was it MJ stocks that saved the day or you were timing the $#!7 ot of market, or you are just like me unbalanced? Which one is it?

#43 Flop... on 05.06.19 at 7:53 pm

My wife likes Coffeyville.

I prefer Beerville…

M44BC

Visualizing Monthly Mortgage Payments in the United States.

Cash is king in real estate, but the reality is that most home buyers will need to take out a mortgage in order to afford a house. Many properties require at least a 20 percent down payment (less than that requires private mortgage insurance), while the rest can be financed through a mortgage loan. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, 63% of homeowners have a mortgage. However, the median home prices where you live determine not only how much you will need to amass as a down payment, but also what your monthly mortgage payment will be.

Our new visualization uses data from Zillow Research and the St. Louis Fed to find the metro areas with the most expensive and least expensive mortgage payments. The darker shades of pink indicate higher monthly mortgage payments, while lighter shades of pink are lower monthly mortgage payments. We have assumed a 20% down payment as well as a 30-year mortgage duration. The 4.08% average interest rate for a 30-year mortgage has been retrieved from FRED on 04/04/19. No taxes or insurance payment is included in our analysis. To see how we arrived at our calculations, you can view our spreadsheet here.

Top 5 Metros With the Most Expensive Mortgage Payments

1. San Jose, CA – $4,008
2. San Francisco, CA – $2,994
3. Vineyard Haven, MA – $2,963
4. Santa Cruz, CA – $2,940
5. Edwards, CO – $2,488

Bottom 5 Metros With the Least Expensive Mortgage Payments

1. Coffeyville, KS – $205
2. Newport, TN – $259
3. Union City, TN – $283
4. Rockingham, NC – $294
5. Martin, TN – $296

Overall, mortgage payments tend to be less expensive in the South and the Midwest and most expensive in the Northeast and the West. Seven of the top ten most expensive metros are located in California, especially centered around Silicon Valley. The monthly mortgage payment in the most expensive metro, San Jose ($4,008), is about 33% higher than the second-most expensive metro, San Francisco ($2,994). The cost of a monthly mortgage in San Jose is also almost 20 times greater than the mortgage cost in Coffeyville, KS ($205), the least expensive metro on this list.

https://howmuch.net/articles/americas-mortgage-map-2019

#44 rookie57 on 05.06.19 at 7:53 pm

#37 Bdwy sktn

13.
Norberts is what u want.

1.move cash to RBC direct investment act.
2.buy RY in cdn on tsx
3.sell RY on NYSE for usd
4. Move proceeds to usd acct.
__________________________________________

You may need to get the brokerage company to journal the shares from your CAD account to the US Account before selling in USD. Basically step 2.5.

Norberts eliminates the fee charged for changing CAD to US. Such a fee is on top of the bid/ask price listed for buying and selling the currency.

Rookie57

#45 -=jwk=- on 05.06.19 at 7:56 pm

@dolce


BLUE line represents the Unadjusted or Raw (Actual) data they gathered but DO NOT show in their table data as the default, you have to know where to look and muck about to see it,

You mean like clicking on the drop down field and choosing ‘unadjusted’?

sneaky statscan and their dropdownlists

https://imgur.com/eOn94Q3

It seemed odd to me that you would have a large hiring binge in May-June (Unadjusted, Raw data) and that needed explaining.

You mean other than the painfully, painfully obvious farm labour and summer students? Because this happens every year, and it is expected, we adjust for that to compare to prior years…to make comparisons meaningful..we call that ‘seasonally adjusted’.

Why then deprive them of the actual data? Why, oh why?

Because people like to spread silly conspirancy theories?

#46 Evangeline on 05.06.19 at 7:59 pm

#37 Bdwy sktn

I’m curious as to why he should buy and sell stock which will cost two transaction fees and either a capital loss or gain/tax?

Why not just a straight and simple cash transfer?

#47 NEVER GIVE UP on 05.06.19 at 8:00 pm

Isn’t that a picture of SMOKING MAN on a Sunday morning after an all night drunk, after a round of Bangkok hookers were done with him?

#48 Ace Goodheart on 05.06.19 at 8:08 pm

RE: “It works a lot better than you cherry-picking one mythical property (and it is mythical). – Garth”

No, it is not. And if you go back to 2008, you’ll find that those cherry picked properties suddenly blossom on every street.

But isn’t investing cherry picking too? I’m not knocking it. I’ve earned over 10% thus far this last 12 months on my various portfolios.

But I also made millions in Toronto real estate, so I know that apple has a golden core too.

You can lose money anywhere. The markets are no different than housing. What I don’t like is generalizations being used to describe specific situations. Doing that is a statistical error. It is one of the first things they teach you. Don’t compare the general to the specific. You’ll never get the right answer.

#49 Leo Trollstoy on 05.06.19 at 8:25 pm

#5 Victoria Real Estate Update on 05.06.19 at 4:52 pm
Is there a “profession” more self-serving than that of a real estate agent?

Politician

#50 Flop... on 05.06.19 at 8:27 pm

Look at the state of it.

“Yet those awaiting a final reckoning — and the chance to buy a home on the cheap in this picturesque West Coast city — may be disappointed, according to Tamara Vrooman, chief executive officer of Vancouver City Savings Credit Union.

“We see no evidence of a freefall,” Vrooman, 50, said in an interview at the headquarters of Canada’s largest credit union. “We have certainly seen a lot of sitting on the sidelines and wait-and-see, but we’re also seeing signs that we might be at the trough.””

Oh, Vancity is at the trough alright!

Stuffed yourselves silly on mortgages, didn’t ya?

Where were you looking?

Behind the salad dressing in the fridge…

M44BC

#51 Leo Trollstoy on 05.06.19 at 8:39 pm

#13 Fleeced Indeed on 05.06.19 at 5:46 pm

NG is a time-consuming and complicated way to make mistakes

https://www.finder.com/ca/international-money-transfer-apps

#52 oh bouy on 05.06.19 at 8:40 pm

made my first million by 38 buying real estate in TO.
liquidated in 2017. et voila, life is grand.

#53 Flop... on 05.06.19 at 8:59 pm

O.k , I’ll try to help a few people out.

I am a simpleton, so when I want currency exchanged in Vancouver, I use Vancouver Bullion and Currency Exchanges.

Downtown, Richmond, South Granville, and Mrs Flop told me the other day that they are opening up at Metrotown in Burnaby.

Better rates than the bank.

Maybe even less snarky.

I don’t really care.

I just go in with a baseball cap on with big sunglasses and a sack and shout “I’m here for the cash!”

Never left empty handed yet…

M44BC

#54 NoName on 05.06.19 at 9:02 pm

Just for a disclaimer, in last 5 yrs i did double up our liquid network, not as impressive as mikeie, but considering our circuistances its almost as impressive, if you dont aks my wife. And i am not even an engineer, just a mediocre electrician…

(No mj, tiny bit of timing, fully balanced [outside of comments section] and no brute brute forcing everything in to savings…)

Its no small taks to transfer tax rebate to spousal tfsa/rrsp, look wifi in her eyes and say, hony in 20 youll thank me for doing this, while at same time trying to defend yourself not to get eyes clawed out, and trying to complete online transfer.

I may be mediocre electrician, but for sure i an even more mediocre husband/father… Puding is a proof, or something like that.

#55 Triplenet on 05.06.19 at 9:12 pm

#5 Victoria real estate update

Perhaps TNLATB, politicians, the climate gangs (both sides), BC casino management, lottery corp mgmt, SNC et al and my favourite… pharmaceutical sales.
….just a few.

#56 Ronaldo on 05.06.19 at 9:17 pm

#53 Flop… on 05.06.19 at 8:59 pm

Yes Flop, great place to deal with. Have been using them for years.

#57 ImGonnaBeSick on 05.06.19 at 9:20 pm

#13 Fleeced Indeed on 05.06.19 at 5:46 pm

DLR.TO journaled to DLR.U.TO and vice versa.

#58 Ronaldo on 05.06.19 at 9:22 pm

#50 Flop… on 05.06.19 at 8:27 pm
Look at the state of it.

“Yet those awaiting a final reckoning — and the chance to buy a home on the cheap in this picturesque West Coast city — may be disappointed, according to Tamara Vrooman, chief executive officer of Vancouver City Savings Credit Union.

“We see no evidence of a freefall,” Vrooman, 50, said in an interview at the headquarters of Canada’s largest credit union. “We have certainly seen a lot of sitting on the sidelines and wait-and-see, but we’re also seeing signs that we might be at the trough.””
———————————————————–
Yep.

https://www.caglecartoons.com/viewimage.asp?ID={3A2735DA-3E91-4E9D-BB42-B06CC91A0DF3}

#59 Capt. Serious on 05.06.19 at 9:25 pm

Can I see your spreadsheet?
– From Pickup Lines for Engineers

#60 adee on 05.06.19 at 9:25 pm

there is no consideration of data such as

– the CAD has fallen from 1.09 to 1.35 since 2014
– what amount was put into USD at the outset
– how much the engineer earns/saves

#61 40s2m on 05.06.19 at 9:32 pm

“at age 47 he’ll have $2 million and can retire with a lifetime income of about ten grand a month.”

How?

#62 gattu on 05.06.19 at 10:00 pm

Interactive Brokers works well for changing currencies. They’re also inexpensive for trading most large global equity markets.

#13 Fleeced Indeed

#63 SoggyShorts on 05.06.19 at 10:33 pm

#46 Evangeline on 05.06.19 at 7:59 pm
#37 Bdwy sktn

I’m curious as to why he should buy and sell stock which will cost two transaction fees and either a capital loss or gain/tax?
Why not just a straight and simple cash transfer?

*****************************
Cash transfers cost 2%
Norberts gambit costs a single $5 fee(buying ETFs is free)

#64 Ace Goodheart on 05.06.19 at 10:35 pm

RE: “#47 NEVER GIVE UP on 05.06.19 at 8:00 pm
Isn’t that a picture of SMOKING MAN on a Sunday morning after an all night drunk, after a round of Bangkok hookers were done with him?”

Now that comment brings back memories. Ahhh Bangkok, Patpong, Kaosan Road. Those were the days…..

#65 The Real Mark on 05.06.19 at 10:37 pm

“#51 Leo Trollstoy on 05.06.19 at 8:39 pm
#13 Fleeced Indeed on 05.06.19 at 5:46 pm
NG is a time-consuming and complicated way to make mistakes”

Wow Troll, we actually agree 100% on something… Hell must’ve frozen over.. “Norbert’s Gambit” is a very poor way to rationalize very bad behavior by Canada’s big bank-brokers that basically scam their customers by not disclosing forex fees and not being willing to negotiate/discount them as they often will do for commissions. It wouldn’t surprise me to learn that the banks have engaged in some sort of conspiracy to keep competition out of such aspect of the brokerage business.

I’d personally tell an abused spouse to leave, and not to put up with or rationalize the abuse. I’d never counsel someone abused by their broker, through non-transparent forex commissions, to reward them with further business through the use of Norbert’s Gambit or similar strategies.

#66 Trojan House on 05.06.19 at 10:41 pm

#130 Millennial Realist on 05.06.19 at 8:08 am

I really think you should change your handle to Millennial Unrealist. Most people who are wealthy actually worked for their wealth, unlike the millennial generation who think work is overrated and should get their wealth through sharing. It really is the fault of the older generation by teaching kids in school that they should share everything.

My inlaws are wealthy. They worked hard for it. They came to Canada in 1970 in January from a country that really doesn’t have a winter. They literally had no winter clothes and definitely no boots. They had nothing when they arrived. They worked really hard as did their siblings who also immigrated at the same time. They didn’t have glorious jobs, my father-in-law owned his own taxi business (basically one car – his) but they were smart with their money, invested wisely and built a very good life for themselves and their kids. Now, they are able to help out their kids.

Now, in your world, because they are wealthy they should share that and pay more tax than they already do because some people unfortunately don’t have the same. My inlaws came from poor families yet they were able to become wealthy. There is no way they should have to share more than they already do.

Everyone has the same opportunity in Canada to become wealthy. Some choose to do it and some choose not to (and some can’t but that’s a different story). Some would rather feel sorry for themselves and not try to improve their situations. There is no way in hell that wealth should be shared. I am not wealthy. I’m more middle of the middle class. I am not upset because someone has more than me. I am not asking for handouts from the wealthy. I try to work hard and I come to this blog to make myself smarter financially.

You come hear to spew your garbage.

#67 The Real Mark on 05.06.19 at 10:42 pm

“The ‘average’ house was just over $1.05MM. Assuming 20% down that is $211K, leaving 239K to compound at the same 7.5%.
At the end of 5 years, that property is worth $1.35MM, “

Careful.. The ‘average’ house in 2013 is quite a bit different than the ‘average’ house in 2018. The onslaught of brand new supply, and significantly renovated supply has skewed the average somewhat higher. On a quality and sales mix adjusted basis, there has been no growth in Toronto (or Vancouver) RE since the 2013 apex.

So an individual property purchased in 2014, probably would sell for roughly similar today. Of course the stock investment portfolio has done significantly better on capital gains.

To be fair, we also have to include the imputed owners equivalent rent on the RE. Which, although rather modest in Toronto given that Toronto’s market is quite amply physically supplied, still needs to be included nonetheless in a legitimate head to head comparison of RE vs an investment portfolio.

#68 Truth be Told on 05.06.19 at 11:31 pm

Connect the dots…

Eby noted that the B.C. government has already implemented new laws to assist authorities in identifying and initiating collections on proceeds of crime invested in real estate.

That includes a law to create the first beneficial ownership registry in Canada. It’s meant to prevent the hidden ownership of land, by requiring corporations, trusts and numbered companies to reveal who are the true owners.

The speculation tax, which will connect social insurance numbers to property owners, should also help tax authorities identify people who are purchasing properties with no apparent source of income, added Eby.

#69 Smoking Man on 05.07.19 at 12:04 am

Dogs. This is going to be the year of disclose.

I have a bit of real experiance in the topic.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2019/04/24/how-angry-pilots-got-navy-stop-dismissing-ufo-sightings/?tid=ss_fb&utm_term=.bcfe351bc789

#70 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.07.19 at 12:08 am

#17 Dolce Vita on 05.06.19 at 6:09 pm
#11 Cto

PV = $450,000
FV = $821,129
n = 5 years

∴ i = 12.8% compound annual interest rate or in Smug Millennial Engineering speak:

12.781996%

(sorry, but I could not resist).

And Almighty Garth, how ever did our intrepid Smug Millennial Engineer manage that return (and I already read the rebuttal about not buying home, for once, recycling not the answer)???

——————————

Yes, I know Garth…Buonanotte.
———–
You live in Italia.
And all the Italian you know is Bounanotte.

#71 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.07.19 at 12:20 am

#43 Flopster
Why do you waste your time on quoting US real estate data?
There’s no correlation to Canada.

#72 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.07.19 at 12:25 am

#53 Flop… on 05.06.19 at 8:59 pm
O.k , I’ll try to help a few people out.

I am a simpleton, so when I want currency exchanged in Vancouver, I use Vancouver Bullion and Currency Exchanges.

Downtown, Richmond, South Granville, and Mrs Flop told me the other day that they are opening up at Metrotown in Burnaby.

Better rates than the bank.
———–
That’s the place that Michael Levi owned and pushed every day on CKNW.
He still alive.

#73 fishman on 05.07.19 at 12:30 am

Maybe a year, maybe two, anyways when the Greenies were languishing around 6% I said they could take over 20 seats. Still calling B.C. a Con-Greenie battle in Oct. Van Island, Vancouver /Greenies : hinterland, religious Fraser valley/Cons. Goodbye Dippers & Libs.

#74 Smoking Man on 05.07.19 at 12:41 am

California’s a wierd place. People making big arcs to go around you. At first I thought it was the two toy killer poodles .

Than I realized those joggers who were not fast. A bit fat were frightened of my second had smoke and my two missing teeth.

The repulsive renegade habit I stick too is a demented form in my mind you are all idiots, not acceptable in California.

These libtard idiots think if they jog and eat right their last 10 years on earth will be better than mine.

My last ten may not even make it 70. If you eat right your prize will be some stranger that hates old people , has tools of tourcher in a nursing home whos job is changing your diaper

Not going to be me.

#75 Bdwy sktn on 05.07.19 at 1:06 am

44 You may need to get the brokerage company to journal the shares from your CAD account to the US Account before selling in USD. Basically step 2.
_________
I used to have to do this but no longer at least with rbc. Can sell immediately by checking the boxes to sell on nyse.

To the other point on cost its 9.99×2 to change any amount 1k or 1m.

On 500k its 20bucks instead of 10,000 at 2%.

I use a stock ie. Rbc as I didn’t know etfs are inter listed.

#76 Smoking Man on 05.07.19 at 1:11 am

Am I Evil. Not in my mind.

https://www.facebook.com/metalrocketernal/videos/277178469699684/

#77 Smoking Man on 05.07.19 at 1:29 am

Oh boy, when logic kills the teachers lessons.

https://www.facebook.com/235762319779450/posts/2326510944037900/

#78 fishman on 05.07.19 at 1:30 am

Wouldn’t that be something. A Con minority parliament with Greenies holding balance of power. Jeez, the lefties might panic & make them the official opposition leaving their welfare constituencies sucking the hind tit. Makes me happy seeing this Canadian political scene getting ready to get their rotten legs kicked out from underneath them.

#79 Leanne on 05.07.19 at 3:17 am

#13 Fleeced indeed

You could try TransferWise or CurrencyFair. Their rates have been the best we can find for other currencies but you’ll have to check for CAD to USD.

#80 NoName on 05.07.19 at 6:20 am

#74 Smoking Man on 05.07.19 at 12:41 am

California’s a wierd place. People making big arcs to go around you. At first I thought it was the two toy killer poodles .

Than I realized those joggers who were not fast. A bit fat were frightened of my second had smoke and my two missing teeth.

The repulsive renegade habit I stick too is a demented form in my mind you are all idiots, not acceptable in California.

These libtard idiots think if they jog and eat right their last 10 years on earth will be better than mine.

My last ten may not even make it 70. If you eat right your prize will be some stranger that hates old people , has tools of tourcher in a nursing home whos job is changing your diaper

Not going to be me.

—-

You dident think this one tru, wouldn’t be something to go all healthy and instead 10, go 12 or more so you be all like, looks like world dident get distroyed by climate change, i was telling tht all along, didn’t I?

#81 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.07.19 at 7:25 am

#78 fishman on 05.07.19 at 1:30 am
Wouldn’t that be something. A Con minority parliament with Greenies holding balance of power. Jeez, the lefties might panic & make them the official opposition leaving their welfare constituencies sucking the hind tit. Makes me happy seeing this Canadian political scene getting ready to get their rotten legs kicked out from underneath them.
———-
From what I’m hearing and seeing, the Mills may be going green.
I can see a Green, Liberal Coalition.
Nothing wrong with that.

Hope you enjoy the plastics tax. – Garth

#82 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.07.19 at 7:32 am

What did I tell you.
Get rid off your F-150 before they tax the hell out of it.
https://theprovince.com/pmn/news-pmn/canada-news-pmn/canadian-press-newsalert-green-partys-paul-manly-wins-nanaimo-ladysmith/wcm/bd31f6d3-b433-4fd6-ad95-c7b700065c89

#83 NoName on 05.07.19 at 8:00 am

#82 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.07.19 at 7:32 am
What did I tell you.
Get rid off your F-150 before they tax the hell out of it.
https://theprovince.com/pmn/news-pmn/canada-news-pmn/canadian-press-newsalert-green-partys-paul-manly-wins-nanaimo-ladysmith/wcm/bd31f6d3-b433-4fd6-ad95-c7b700065c89

Yougoslavioa 2.0 in making, balconisation of canada over the plastic straws… People are funy when they have nothing left…

Should we all buy presure washers and golf deasels? maybe skoda will do for half comunist canada, whay say you?

https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/industry/2018s-most-popular-cars-europe-%E2%80%93-country

#84 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.07.19 at 8:09 am

@# 69 Smoking Man
“This is going to be the year of disclose.”

*****
You’re joining a nudist colony?

#85 Captain Uppa on 05.07.19 at 8:13 am

Garth, just hope you realize that all these future gains you are projecting for Mike will need population growth to sustain.

So….

Not really. – Garth

#86 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.07.19 at 8:16 am

@#Ponzi’s Plot
“Get rid off your F-150 before they tax the hell out of it…”
++++

Too late.
Its called PST, GST, ICBC and Gas.

#87 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.07.19 at 8:28 am

Hurray!
We can all stop worrying about the environment.
Former Vancouver Mayor ,Gregor the Dim to the rescue.

https://www.citynews1130.com/2019/05/06/gregor-robertson-appointed-global-ambassador-for-environmental-coalition/

If you think Trudeau’s pressers were painful to watch ….you aint seen nuthin’ yet…. but he does look good on tv and that’s what counts with voters…. just hit the “mute” button so you dont have to suffer through his inane , bumbling ,”gotta look and sound sorta serious” routine.

#88 Renter's Revenge! on 05.07.19 at 8:39 am

#59 Capt. Serious on 05.06.19 at 9:25 pm
Can I see your spreadsheet?
– From Pickup Lines for Engineers

That might actually work if you’re trying to pick up an engineer! LOL

#89 not 1st on 05.07.19 at 8:46 am

———-
From what I’m hearing and seeing, the Mills may be going green.
I can see a Green, Liberal Coalition.
Nothing wrong with that.
___

Sure if you don’t mind the 6th largest energy producer in the world leaving confederation and joining the US.

Critical thinking at an all time low in lotusland. But go ahead try some more lefty experimentation. Careful what you wish for.

#90 Flop... on 05.07.19 at 9:47 am

Ponzi Scheme at 12:20 am
#43 Flopster
Why do you waste your time on quoting US real estate data?
There’s no correlation to Canada.

/////////////////////

Why do you waste your time nitpicking what I choose to contribute on here?

I’ll waste some time answering your question.

There are lots of Americans on here.

I visit America on a regular basis.

I have family in the States.

I’ve lived in 5 different countries and visited over 30 and don’t see the world through just one lens.

My best friend on here before passed was an American, he would of loved to look at the howmuch articles.

Sorry, gotta drive my gas guzzler of a van to work now…

M44BC
M64WI

#91 Dissident on 05.07.19 at 9:48 am

Some good news on the BC Real Estate / money laundering front:

https://www.canadianlawyermag.com/legalfeeds/author/jean-sorensen/bc-law-society-proposes-rules-to-crack-down-on-money-laundering-17215/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+LegalFeedsBlog+%28Legal+Feeds+Blog%29

“LSBC president Nancy Merrill was quoted in a government press release as saying: “This groundbreaking move by the B.C. government will increase the transparency of land ownership in B.C. and make it more difficult to use such arrangements for tax evasion, fraud and money laundering.” “

#92 PastThePeak on 05.07.19 at 9:56 am

https://business.financialpost.com/investing/david-rosenberg-how-weak-economic-growth-is-actually-fuelling-this-bull-markets-rise
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

A better thesis on what is going on than the standard story.

#93 Captain Uppa on 05.07.19 at 10:00 am

>>#85 Captain Uppa on 05.07.19 at 8:13 am
Garth, just hope you realize that all these future gains you are projecting for Mike will need population growth to sustain.

So….

Not really. – Garth>>

May I ask who will be buying all the products in order for companies to keep growing profits to satisfy the stock markets?

#94 AK on 05.07.19 at 10:17 am

#81 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.07.19 at 7:25 am

“From what I’m hearing and seeing, the Mills may be going green.
I can see a Green, Liberal Coalition.
Nothing wrong with that.”
====================================

If that were to happen, watch the exodus out of Canada.

#95 entropy on 05.07.19 at 10:29 am

As an engineer who works in the gta…with other engineers. This kind of story is like the 0.001% of 1%.
While the back half the story makes sense I always question the hidden details leading up to these supposed stories. The math rarely works. Or at least, is very far fetched.

#96 millmech on 05.07.19 at 10:29 am

#66 Trojan Horse
He is just a troll as most millennials are raking it in now with great jobs and pay , they wouldn’t want a wealth tax as they themselves would be the primary victim of just such a tax.

#81 Ponzius Pilatius
I don’t get the climate change threat, how can environmental devastation possibly be a threat when all I have ever been taught is that we are a product of evolution so we would just evolve to adapt to a changing environment, correct?
Our genetic predecessors either adapted or became extinct as millions of other species have done over millions of years, I was told that 99% of the planets previous species have gone extinct making way for what is here now, Darwinism at its finest correct.

#97 MF on 05.07.19 at 10:30 am

#89 not 1st on 05.07.19 at 8:46

Your whining is worse than any millennial could dream of.

Stop. Feeding. The. Troll.

Got it?

Pathetic.

MF

#98 JonBoy on 05.07.19 at 10:48 am

#13 Fleeced Indeed

Use Knightsbridge FX. They have better rates than any bank, they’re working with most banks (except one – I can’t remember which one so make sure it’s not yours!) and they’re pretty simple to use, once you get your account set up and verified.

They require a minimum $3000 amount per transaction.

#99 Ubul on 05.07.19 at 11:00 am

#87 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.07.19 at 8:28 am

Hurray!
We can all stop worrying about the environment.
Former Vancouver Mayor ,Gregor the Dim to the rescue.

https://www.citynews1130.com/2019/05/06/gregor-robertson-appointed-global-ambassador-for-environmental-coalition/

If you think Trudeau’s pressers were painful to watch ….you aint seen nuthin’ yet…. but he does look good on tv and that’s what counts with voters…. just hit the “mute” button so you dont have to suffer through his inane , bumbling ,”gotta look and sound sorta serious” routine.

“global ambassador”, eh? Sounds like enormous carbon footprint is about to manifest in fighting the holy war against carbon footprint.

#100 JB on 05.07.19 at 11:45 am

#80 NoName on 05.07.19 at 6:20 am

#74 Smoking Man on 05.07.19 at 12:41 am

California’s a wierd place. People making big arcs to go around you. At first I thought it was the two toy killer poodles .

Than I realized those joggers who were not fast. A bit fat were frightened of my second had smoke and my two missing teeth.

The repulsive renegade habit I stick too is a demented form in my mind you are all idiots, not acceptable in California.

These libtard idiots think if they jog and eat right their last 10 years on earth will be better than mine.

My last ten may not even make it 70. If you eat right your prize will be some stranger that hates old people , has tools of tourcher in a nursing home whos job is changing your diaper

Not going to be me.

—-

You dident think this one tru, wouldn’t be something to go all healthy and instead 10, go 12 or more so you be all like, looks like world dident get distroyed by climate change, i was telling tht all along, didn’t I?
………………………………………………………………
Now that reply was truly hilarious. So we wont see you at Huntington Landmark Gate anytime soon?

#101 Gravy Train on 05.07.19 at 11:46 am

#48 Ace Goodheart on 05.06.19 at 8:08 pm
“What I don’t like is generalizations being used to describe specific situations.” Have you not heard or base rates (or prior probabilities)?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Base_rate
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prior_probability
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correspondence_theory_of_truth

“Doing that is a statistical error.” Which statistical error are you referring to? False positives or negatives? Sign or magnitude errors? Something else?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_I_and_type_II_errors

“It is one of the first things they teach you. Don’t compare the general to the specific. You’ll never get the right answer. What are you talking about? It’s at the very heart of statistics and statistical sampling. Who taught you? :)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistics
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sampling_(statistics)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Descriptive_statistics
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistical_inference

#89 not 1st on 05.07.19 at 8:46 am
“Critical thinking at an all time low […].” When have you ever used critical thinking or—for that matter—analyzed facts or factual evidence? You just listen to Fox News. :)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Critical_thinking

#102 Dissident on 05.07.19 at 11:57 am

#92 PastThePeak on 05.07.19 at 9:56 am
https://business.financialpost.com/investing/david-rosenberg-how-weak-economic-growth-is-actually-fuelling-this-bull-markets-rise
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
A better thesis on what is going on than the standard story.

– – – – – – – – – –

Fantastic article, thanks for sharing. It reaffirms what I was reading three years ago about post-recession, leveraged stock buy-backs and how still-low interest rates are influencing this. The author’s point that the market is not a reflection of the actual economy rings very true – it’s more of an isolated, circle-jerk situation than anything else, or a snake eating it’s own tail. Also interesting to note his comments on stock scarcity as a result of these buybacks.

Further rising interest rates would put a damper on this, I would imagine…

#103 Damifino on 05.07.19 at 12:29 pm

Nanaimo – Ladysmith 2015 general election results:

NDP 33.2%
LIB 23.5%
CON 23.4%
GRN 19.8%

Nanaimo – Ladysmith 2019 by-election results:

GRN 37.3%
CON 24.8%
NDP 23.1%
LIB 11.0%

Let’s face it, the Greens had a massive win. Most of that came from the Liberals who fell by a whopping 12.5%. It really tells you something about T2’s prospects. The rest of the Green win was chiseled out of the NDP.

The Conservatives barely budged (typical for them). Scheer must take comfort his base is holding in the middle of Vancouver Island, of all places.

BTW, Bernier’s party somehow snagged 3.6%.

#104 PastThePeak on 05.07.19 at 12:56 pm

#102 Dissident on 05.07.19 at 11:57 am
#92 PastThePeak on 05.07.19 at 9:56 am
https://business.financialpost.com/investing/david-rosenberg-how-weak-economic-growth-is-actually-fuelling-this-bull-markets-rise
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
A better thesis on what is going on than the standard story.

– – – – – – – – – –

Fantastic article, thanks for sharing. It reaffirms what I was reading three years ago about post-recession, leveraged stock buy-backs and how still-low interest rates are influencing this. The author’s point that the market is not a reflection of the actual economy rings very true – it’s more of an isolated, circle-jerk situation than anything else, or a snake eating it’s own tail. Also interesting to note his comments on stock scarcity as a result of these buybacks.

Further rising interest rates would put a damper on this, I would imagine…
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

I don’t see interest rates rising at all. They are more likely to cut (economic growth slowing, inflation-as-they-measure-it low, Trump & team demanding cuts and always beating on Fed,…).

So the question is, how long can the stock market function as disconnected from the economy in this way? Rosenberg (yes, he is mostly a perma-bear) makes the following key points:

1) While majority of companies are meeting (relatively low) earnings-per-share expectations, on a net basis the company earnings are flat to negative YoY. This is due to share buybacks creating the better EPS view.

This means of course that company earnings, and economic strength, are not as strong as the EPS view shows. No article or video I have seen touches on this.

2) The stock market is behaving like “a market for stocks” – get yer stocks here! We got energy stocks, we got tech stocks! Buybacks will make them more valuable, so get them while you can!!

I am guessing this can go on for awhile. Interest rates still very low, and likely lower. More buybacks financed through borrowed money.

#105 JB on 05.07.19 at 12:57 pm

#11 Cto on 05.06.19 at 5:41 pm

Garth no disrespect for I agree with you that houses and especially condos in Toronto are still way overpriced.

However I just about choked on your example of the engineer guy. Really? he turned $450,000 into a million in 5 years???? Seriously? Using a relatively safe portfolio a 6-7% can’t even come close to this. I know because my portfolio manager has been trying for 5 years.

How much did he have to contribute to this plan yearly?

Obviously he fed his portfolio, not his house. – Garth
…………………………………………………………………
Yes condos still way overpriced. The problem with condos is the fees always go up. Way up. They just never give you a break. Even when a new Property management team comes in they go up. At least in a earth bound domicile you can control some of your fixed asset spending. Condo fees are usually amortized with the rest of your neighbours so you have not control over water and heat. So much for being green and trying to save!

#106 bguy1 on 05.07.19 at 1:22 pm

Any advice when letting an MPAC employee into your home?

#107 That's All, She Wrote on 05.07.19 at 1:28 pm

“Sure if you don’t mind the 6th largest energy producer in the world leaving confederation and joining the US.”

As a protectorate like Puerto Rico or Guam? Or were you envisioning — LOL — statehood?

Article V of the constitution. Picture — even in the unlikely event that it got that far — 50 (or more) state delegations converging on a constitutional congress, each waving a sheaf and shouting “Hey, as long as we’re renegotiating the constitution, WE’VE got a few PERFECTLY REASONABLE amendments…”

#108 NEVER GIVE UP on 05.07.19 at 1:41 pm

#64 Ace Goodheart on 05.06.19 at 10:35 pm
RE: “#47 NEVER GIVE UP on 05.06.19 at 8:00 pm
Isn’t that a picture of SMOKING MAN on a Sunday morning after an all night drunk, after a round of Bangkok hookers were done with him?”

Now that comment brings back memories. Ahhh Bangkok, Patpong, Kaosan Road. Those were the days…..
=================================

Hey Ace!
Definitely some of the best days of my life too!, Grace Hotel, Soi Cowboy, and of course the old Patpong when it was the only place in town!
I wonder if Smoking Man has ever been?

#109 Fleeced Indeed on 05.07.19 at 1:58 pm

#18 Evangeline on 05.06.19 at 6:19 pm
#19 Neil on 05.06.19 at 6:19 pm
#29 Tony on 05.06.19 at 6:52 pm
#51 Leo Trollstoy on 05.06.19 at 8:39 pm
#57 ImGonnaBeSick on 05.06.19 at 9:20 pm
#62 gattu on 05.06.19 at 10:00 pm
#79 Leanne on 05.07.19 at 3:17 am
#98 JonBoy on 05.07.19 at 10:48 am

Thank you all for your responses, we certainly appreciate it! Lots to research.

In the meantime, if you have any personal experience with any of the vendors you suggested, we would appreciate hearing about it.

+ + + + + + + + +

#65 The Real Mark on 05.06.19 at 10:37 pm

Thanks, but got lost reading your post. Not sure what you were suggesting…

#110 Remembrancer on 05.07.19 at 2:18 pm

#106 bguy1 on 05.07.19 at 1:22 pm
Any advice when letting an MPAC employee into your home?
———————-
Not a lawyer, but would, as a citizen, advise against going full Ruby Ridge on them – MPAC and assessments are governed in Ontario under the Assessment Act, specifically as applies to access:

https://www.ontario.ca/laws/statute/90a31#BK10

Right of access

10 (1) A person authorized by the assessment corporation, upon producing proper identification, shall at all reasonable times and upon reasonable request be given free access to all land and to all parts of every building, structure, machinery and fixture erected or placed upon, in, over, under or affixed to the land, for the purpose of making a proper assessment thereof. R.S.O. 1990, c. A.31, s. 10 (1); 1997, c. 5, s. 6 (1); 2006, c. 33, Sched. A, s. 10

As per any government employee, sticking to name rank and serial # type direct answers to direct questions and a polite professional demeanor are likely advisable. In practice, an actual person coming, is likely to be there to assess a request that you submitted for adjustment, so having an actual rationale above and beyond “it’s not fair” helps in that case too…

#111 Lolo on 05.07.19 at 2:26 pm

Why don’t people believe Mike? As Garth repeats, shovel the $ into investments, not a house. I did almost the same as Mike, starting w/ about 450K in 2014 to not quite 1M now, but around 950K. However, i also contributed >45K to spousal RRSP to hubby during that time period, and it grew, so can we count it as> $1M? This is while paying for daycare for 2 kids who are now 5 and 8. And that is just MY portfolio. Not hubby’s.

#112 NoName on 05.07.19 at 2:30 pm

DELETED

#113 mike from mtl on 05.07.19 at 2:43 pm

#105 JB on 05.07.19 at 12:57 pm

……
Yes condos still way overpriced. The problem with condos is the fees always go up. Way up.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Yes, exactly! I don’t understand how they can justify their expenses.

Quick maths, say average 400 (10 units per floor x 40 storey) unit building, about 300$ / mo average per unit, in TO there can be much more than that but hang on. I’ve heard of some stratas charging near 1000/mo per unit. Most high rises don’t include heat (hydro) in these figures which is a major monthly cost regardless of structure.

That’s 120k per MONTH or 1.44M per year. The hell expenses and ‘trust fund’ are they spending? After ten years you’re probably half-way to rebuilding the damn thing over **.

**600sqf avg x 10 units x 40 floors = 240000sqf x 100$ sqf build cost = 24M. In reality there’s other costs but you get the idea.

#114 bdwy sktrn on 05.07.19 at 2:47 pm

was hard to understand yesterday’s rebound in stocks, looks like reality has set in today

volatility is back. hooray!

2670 sp500 is the sale im waiting for.

#115 Barb on 05.07.19 at 4:06 pm

Received one of the “Sample 250,000 dwellings” to which the Stats Can “2019 Census Test” applies.

…whether you own/rent, number of people, age, relationships (man/woman, etc.), cultural, religious, language(s) spoken, naturalized citizen? etc.

Interesting there was no question on whether I or anyone in my household presently consumes marijuana (T2’s number one election item during his campaign).

I’d be liable for a fine if I asked for all that information of job applicants for my small business. Perhaps I should just state it’s needed for setting policy.

#116 Tater on 05.07.19 at 4:17 pm

#114 bdwy sktrn on 05.07.19 at 2:47 pm
was hard to understand yesterday’s rebound in stocks, looks like reality has set in today

volatility is back. hooray!

2670 sp500 is the sale im waiting for.
———————————————————-
Volatility? Wake me when realized is over 30% for a week.

#117 Ace Goodheart on 05.07.19 at 7:08 pm

RE: #101 Gravy Train on 05.07.19 at 11:46 am:

It’s not really the same thing. What Garth did, was take an average number, based on the average increase in all Toronto home prices, from 2012 to 2019, and compare it to a specific number, which is the increase in a specifically weighted and constituted portfolio held by one person.

He then declared that this was proof that holding a portfolio was a better investment, than buying a house in Toronto, for the period 2014 to 2019.

Of course, that makes no sense. You can’t buy an average house price, and then get an average increase. Some Toronto neighbourhoods went up by millions of dollars, some went down, some did not move that much, in the period 2014 to 2019. The average doesn’t tell you what you would have made, in that period. It just generalizes.

To make that make sense, you’d have to take all portfolios in existence from 2014 to 2019, and get the average increase. I think you’d probably find that many people lost money during that period, though as Garth pointed out, if you had a balanced portfolio, that contained the right asset mix, and you picked the right stuff, you could have made a lot of money and you could have doubled your money.

But it’s comparing apples to oranges. An average house price increase over a 5 year period is completely different than a specific portfolio increase over the same period. It tells you nothing.

#118 Remembrancer on 05.08.19 at 8:41 am

#113 mike from mtl on 05.07.19 at 2:43 pm
Yes, exactly! I don’t understand how they can justify their expenses.
———————————————-
You are right, this is expense upkeep, but pity more a building that isn’t collecting enough to cover expenses for the reward is special assessment lump sums instead – flat roofs, balconies, underground parking garages, multi-story mechanical systems and elevators are each nightmares on their own as they age, add them all together and you own a % of all the headaches. Optionally throw in a condo board of zanies who have too much time on their hands, spend meetings arguing marigolds vs. begonias in the flower pots and spend their buildings’ money on property management firms that are but a rumour and its a recipe for an expensive box in the sky…