So done

It’s like watching a slo-mo train wreck. Or a speeding autonomous Tesla headed for a cliff. Or the federal Libs on their way to October. You just know what’s gonna happen. Guts everywhere.

And so real estate in Vancouver quietly, painfully, slowly implodes. The slow melt this blog has forecast for so long approached, arrived, now deepens. Even a developer who’s famously  offering avocado toast for a year to condo-buying moisters can’t stem the tide. This thing currently has four paws in the air, despite cheap mortgages, falling prices and spring hormones.

Little more than a year ago 94% of pre-con condos were snapped up by hungry Mills. They lined up in sales pavilions. They flooded online reservations. They unblinkingly coughed up whatever outrageous prices the developers asked.

That 94% has now dwindled to about 15%, which means the developers and sellers are desperate, not the kids. Prices have dropped 6% in a year with more to come. Sales levels have crashed to the lowest point in 18 years. The number of assignments is soaring as recent buyers scramble to get out prior to closing. As local realtor Steve Saretsky points out, the unsold condo inventory across the region has mushroomed 184%.

“Developers are facing difficult times as they navigate the shifting landscape,” he blogs, “with increasing risks that some existing buyers may simply walk away from contractual obligations. These risks have been heightened through lower prices, tighter financing, and an illiquid assignment market which has seen new monthly listings growing at levels we haven’t seen in over a decade.”

And look at the house porn quotes now filling the Van media:

Geller, who has worked in the real estate industry for 45 years, said this market is the worst he’s ever seen — and that includes downturns in the early 1980s and the 2008 financial crisis. Jason Soprovich, a realtor who has worked in the West Vancouver market for 26 years, echoed that assessment: “It has truly been the worst downturn I’ve seen in my career.” From stratospheric highs that peaked in early 2016, Metro Vancouver’s real estate market has slowed, and prices have dropped, in all areas and housing types.

House prices in West Van are down 15% to 30%. But that’s not the bottom. How could it be when there are virtually no buyers? Now realtors are dumping Audis. Brokers are laying off support staff. Marketing is kaput. It’s hang-on, survival time for people who were godly rockstars with sexy rides three years ago.

And remember the cautions this blog made about credit unions and their unholy alliance with mortgage debt? Right again.

Look at the Sandy Cove mansion that BlueShore Financial unwisely funded. The North Van credit union with 40,000 members handed over more than the current assessed value to a guy and his stepson to reno and flip a six-bathroom single home. After a long sojourn on the market the price crashed from $6.5 million to $3.98 million. Blueshore went to court for the right to dump the place as a foreclosure. Still for sale. Everybody loses, save the guys who worked on the property and were paid with credit union funds.

Formerly the North Shore Credit Union, Blueshore has over $3.8 billion in outstanding mortgages and commercial loans and has taken  in $3.9 billion in deposits to fund them. Last year its net income declined to $18.2 million from $20 million in 2017. Of total assets, 85.7% are in real estate-related loans.

Blueshore and all of the other house-heavy lenders in BC (and Ontario) may be okay. Let’s hope so. But we should also be realistic. If real estate topples, Canada’s provinces could face something along the lines of the S&L (savings and loans) disaster which befell the United States. That mess happened when rates rose, real estate values withered and credit union-type outfits faced insolvency. Between 1986 and 1995, 1,043 out of 3,234 savings-and-loans organizations failed.

The bottom’s nowhere in sight at the moment. The tone-deaf BC government’s suite of anti-real estate taxes took a natural market correction and turned it into a rout. At first people looked at the anti-Chinese tax, the anti-specker tax, the empty house tax and the uber property tax and concluded demand and prices would fall. So they stopped buying. The prophesy was self-fulfilling. The worse it feels, the worse it gets.

And the worse it shall be.

120 comments ↓

#1 Rifles on 04.30.19 at 4:20 pm

Worth noting that there is no Uber in Vancuber. The poor relators can’t even turn to that to lessen the pain. I take no pleasure in the pain of the fools that bought here in the last year or two but it must hurt something awful. Expect Horgan will double down on his government intervention tel estate policy if your provincial S&L crisis materializes.

#2 yvr_lurker on 04.30.19 at 4:20 pm

If real estate topples, Canada’s provinces could face something along the lines of the S&L (savings and loans) disaster which befell the United States.

——–

As you said earlier, Garth, real estate markets are largely LOCAL. Nothing to fear about huge crashes in the rest of Canada (possibly declines in GTA, but not as much as YVR). We still have a long way to go in YVR to get prices more in-line with what the locals can afford. When you kill off the foreigners, speculators, and money launderers who were feeding the top end of the market and driving prices of comparables to double digit year-over-year gains, this is the consequence. When the dust settles we will hopefully have a more thriving city that local citizens can afford and contribute to, i.e. we will have less high-rise largely vacant towers downtown, less empty homes all over the westside and West Van with ghost citizens living abroad. As far as I can see, the NDP policies of suppressing speculative forces from both global and local forces has been rather well-received by people living in YVR. I’d like to see any politician run on a platform of returning to the speculative mania from 2014-2017… give it a try Wilkinson… you will be crushed at the polls…

#3 Dave on 04.30.19 at 4:39 pm

Storm clouds are gathering all over BC, give it another few months and there will be blood in the streets. There has to be, 1 house in an average neighbourhood should never be 2.5M.

#4 Asterix1 on 04.30.19 at 4:51 pm

Real Estate cartel is out in full force! From OREA, BILD, TD, Scotia, CIBC and the rest of the lot, publishing ridiculous studies and articles in newspapers to get rid of B-20.

Once again, newspapers print it, not questions asked!

The Cartel keep pumping that RE price will climb this year and next! Must be nice having a magic ball!

#5 Turnip Cheesies on 04.30.19 at 4:56 pm

Blame the Russians?

#6 Simon on 04.30.19 at 4:58 pm

so time to buy yet then?

#7 paddy twinkle toes on 04.30.19 at 4:59 pm

What does this mean to the vast majority of your blog readers who have a B&D portfolio of ETFs? Do i smell a sale on the horizon?

Why would the market care? The TSX is ahead 16% this year, as Vancouver sinks. – Garth

#8 Concerned citizen on 04.30.19 at 5:07 pm

Please stop saying “anti-Chinese Tax” … completely unhelpful rhetoric.

If it walks like a duck… – Garth

#9 It just doesn't ... on 04.30.19 at 5:10 pm

feel like the early eighties crash yet out here in Van. Totally different circumstances this time. People still have jobs. The mainstream media really haven’t pushed the true stats. They are in too deep with the real estate board I guess. The market just seems to need more time until a few more get really desperate in the lower priced market and then … who knows how far it will fall. The good places in the good hoods will always be loved but at what price? We will see …

#10 Dolce Vita on 04.30.19 at 5:14 pm

“It’s like watching a slo-mo train wreck. ”

Not just Trudeau, the Canadian economy.

-0.1% Feb. 2019 GDP MoM

Both Goods and Services down. StatCan blames the weather, yet, Construction Sector was + (they must have greatly improved hoarding). Construction increasing a good bad omen since overbuilding the final phase before a RE recession.

4 of the last 6 months negative but a slight gain over the period (x $1 MM):

Sept. 2018 GDP = 1,942,758
Feb. 2019 GDP = 1,946,379

+0.19% over the past 6 months

Essentially, ZERO GROWTH. Fully expect that we are in recession when the March and April numbers come out.

————————————————-

Good Blog Garth, to the point.

The Liberal train wreck did not even escape the inquisitive, enthusiastic, if not “nerdy” Lisa from The Simpsons (I like it how they made Justin Peacock Pose slither his way out of the office like a bug):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8b73M_kA8io&feature=youtu.be&t=94

The Simpsons even got the Office of the Prime Minister and Privy Council building correct.

#11 Drill Baby Drill on 04.30.19 at 5:16 pm

If it walks like a duck… – Garth
Must be Peking Duck

#12 Uncle Rico on 04.30.19 at 5:19 pm

Garth I’m gonna tell you somethin’ right now. While you’re out there playing patty cake with your friend Ryan, your Uncle Rico is makin’ 120 bucks.

#13 DavidW2 on 04.30.19 at 5:22 pm

What does this mean for other urban centres (Halifax, Ottawa, Montreal, etc)?

#14 Yukon Elvis on 04.30.19 at 5:29 pm

A well deserved and fearsome shitkicking. I like it. Put the stink on foreign and domestic speculators. Locals can stick around a ride it out. HiYo Silver! Giddyup !

#15 2millionDollarCrackHouse on 04.30.19 at 5:32 pm

Question – I’ve got $50k @ 4% in a 29-month Coast Capital GIC that comes due end of 2020. Should I be worried?

#16 Dave on 04.30.19 at 5:38 pm

Once Maduro leaves Venezuela and a puppet usa govt is put in place, Oil prices will increase significantly.

Sadly in Canada without a pipeline we are screwed

#17 Victoria on 04.30.19 at 5:47 pm

Except in Victoria. Talking to people property is still rocking. The best in the world because everybody in the whole wide world wants to live here. In Victoria. On their street.

#18 AK on 04.30.19 at 5:55 pm

“Or the federal Libs on their way to October. Guts everywhere.”
=====================================

Indeed. This event will be blamed on the Russians and Harper.

#19 Smartalox on 04.30.19 at 6:02 pm

Last day of the month… Realtors in BC have 9 more hours to get their SOLD data in for it to count in April’s REBGV statistics. Can’t wait to see those numbers… maybe Friday afternoon?

Also, don’t forget Realtors! Tax returns have to be filed by midnight tonight – and taxes owing be paid within 5 working days – or interest and penalties may apply!

#20 BlorgDorg on 04.30.19 at 6:02 pm

In the S&L crisis, the federal government recapitalized the FSLIC when taxpayers footed the bill for dodgy mortgage loans. Can we expect the same for CMHC?

Debt potato, pass it on.

#21 The Real Mark on 04.30.19 at 6:04 pm

“#15 2millionDollarCrackHouse on 04.30.19 at 5:32 pm
Question – I’ve got $50k @ 4% in a 29-month Coast Capital GIC that comes due end of 2020. Should I be worried?”

Considering 4% is a good 2-3% more than the big-5 federally chartered institutions have to pay for their 3-year term funding, the mere fact of such indicates that such carries a higher degree of risk.

I personally think the insolvent credit unions will ultimately be resolved by the (federal) government forcing the big-5 to acquire the insolvent credit unions as a quid pro quo of CMHC bailout financing. So as a creditor to a BC credit union, you probably won’t face a bail-in (not even sure what a bail-in would look like for a credit union since the concept of equity really doesn’t exist!), but there will be lots of fireworks and lots of volatility throughout the entire Canadian banking system.

#7 paddy twinkle toes on 04.30.19 at 4:59 pm
What does this mean to the vast majority of your blog readers who have a B&D portfolio of ETFs? Do i smell a sale on the horizon?

I’ve yet to find an example of Canadian or US stock market gains being sustainable in the context of yield curve inversion. Usually the liquidity/solvency crisis that ultimately unfolds as the result of curve inversion de-capitalizing the banking system causes a significant fall in the stock market.

This is where gold really ends up shining, historically, which is why a proper “B&D” portfolio includes a modest allocation. Just like bonds, cash, stocks, real estate, etc.

#22 Smartalox on 04.30.19 at 6:10 pm

When it comes to Real Estate taxes, it appears that EVERY level of government wants a spot at your trough:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/property-tax-business-homeowners-vancouver-council-1.5116586

Monday night, city council voted to shift two per cent of property taxes from businesses to residences over the next three years, with the aim of providing some relief for the city’s small businesses.

In May, one per cent will be shifted to homeowners, followed by half a per cent transfer of the tax for the next two years. The motion was only narrowly approved, with the vote 6-5 in favour.

a business like Walmart would save almost $15,000 in property taxes a year, while a small business would save around $200.

My assumption is that those costs would be passed on to residential homeowners.

Yet another reason to move to Burnaby.

#23 Captain Uppa on 04.30.19 at 6:14 pm

Ouch.

Captain Uppa never really liked the West Coast anyways, save for the mountains.

GTA looking steady, Steady, STEADY!

#24 HT on 04.30.19 at 6:15 pm

Anti-Chinese tax? C’mon, Garth. You’re better than that.

Should I have included Albertans? Sorry. – Garth

#25 Smartalox on 04.30.19 at 6:16 pm

Re: Over-Extended Credit Unions

When the Great Financial Crash hit, the ‘Big Five’ Canadian banks did a brisk business buying up the distressed assets of many US savings and loans operations.

Do you think that the US banks will be happy to return the favour and buy up some struggling credit unions for pennies on the dollar? What about HSBC? Or the International Commerce Bank of China (the OTHER ICBC?)

#26 YouTube is my hearing aid on 04.30.19 at 6:22 pm

You’re forgetting that Gen Z (those born between 1997-2010) is coming of age.

They are more likely to say to hell with home ownership,

live frugally,

troll your comments feed,

dislike champagne liberals (as its hypocritical for a lefty to engage in corporate consumer culture),

are jaded (hear the gloomy pop music these days compared to the boy bands and divas of the late 90s)

among other realities.

In 5-10 years, you will finally see the effect of Gen Z on the real estate economy. They don’t like Boomers and they don’t like the hypocrisy of Millennial leftys.

#27 CL on 04.30.19 at 6:24 pm

Hi – anyone know resources to help explain how best to leave Canada for a more reasonable lower tax jurisdiction? Love this place but can learn to love another if I can keep more than 46% of earnings. I reduced hours to reduce the impact of this high marginal rate, but it still takes a huge bite.

#28 not 1st on 04.30.19 at 6:24 pm

Unexpected? No, it was totally expected and predicted and here it is. Where are all those green jobs we were promised? Guess resources are important and not some bygone relic of a progressive fantasy land.

https://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/update-1-canada-economy-unexpectedly-shrinks-in-feb-mining-and-rail-transport-weaker

#29 Dolce Vita on 04.30.19 at 6:25 pm

I’m surprised Garth you didn’t bother to talk about YVR’s other woe besides RE:

GASOLINE PRICES

Regular in DT Vancouver about $1.65,9/L (fast approaching Italia’s 1.914 €/L). Now they have people calling for BC Government Regulation of Gas prices.

AS IF…

B.C.’s 2 refineries produce 67,000 barrels per day (bpd) of gasoline and diesel, whereas B.C. consumed 192,000 bpd in 2015. Alberta’s refineries supply about 100,000 bpd to B.C., and about 30,000 bpd is imported from Washington state refineries.

Price breakdown (rack price = the cost of the gas itself, as well as transportation, overhead, and profit):

$1.052 rack price
$0.3339 provincial taxes
$0.10 federal excise tax
+ 5% GST
+ dealer’s mark-up

Edmonton rack price = $83.30/L. It costs money to move the gasoline from AB to YVR and then have Suncor clean it up and distribute it + a profit.

As YVR gasoline consumption increases, more gasoline will come from the American’s, whom of course, will charge what they can get away with (YOU KNOW, SINCE AB ONLY GETS THE 1 PIPELINE TO SHIP TO YOU BC).

In reality, a new pipeline from AB will increase supply to BC keeping prices lower; however, a new pipeline needs product, hence, additional refining capacity needs to be added in AB.

The flip side is that BC adds refining capacity but still has to source oil from elsewhere (recall, just the 1 pipeline from AB already in use).

COMPLEX to say the least.

EITHER WAY, without additional production, GASOLINE PRICES IN YVR WILL ONLY BECOME HIGHER and NO MEASURE of Gov’t Regulation is going to change that…well of course:

-there’s that $0.3339/L provincial tax that could be lowered…AS IF.

BETTER YET buy a lot of Tesla’s and electrify the entire Lower Mainland for them. Then again, you are limited to travel in Canada to BC and AB, since SK has no Tesla charging stations nor most of ON (the forest primeval parts). There’s a couple in Winterpegg.

——————————————–

You just have to love the Social Engineering BC NDP (I say still better than the corrupt “Liberal” Gov they had).

Buonanotte e Ciao d’Italia.

#30 When the Whip Comes Down on 04.30.19 at 6:27 pm

#17 Victoria – shhhhhh…. don’t tell them anything. Keep it quiet.

#31 Dolce Vita on 04.30.19 at 6:30 pm

…ooops, forgot the source of BC gas prices, good read, smart guy:

https://achemistinlangley.net/

There are some sharp people in BC that understand what is going on with oil and gas prices, this guy is one. I like logic and math, he has plenty of both to support his assertions.

Couple of good reads by this person if you are interested…

How the CCPA completely misses the target on the root cause of our elevated gasoline prices in the Lower Mainland:

https://achemistinlangley.net/2019/04/29/how-the-ccpa-completely-misses-on-the-root-cause-of-our-elevated-gasoline-prices-in-the-lower-mainland/

A primer on the BC refined fuel market, lower mainland gasoline prices and how they can be affected by a change in mix in the Trans Mountain Pipeline:

https://achemistinlangley.net/2019/04/14/a-primer-on-the-bc-refined-fuel-market-lower-mainland-gasoline-prices-and-how-they-can-be-affected-by-a-change-in-mix-in-the-trans-mountain-pipeline/

#32 not 1st on 04.30.19 at 6:34 pm

We let fools and incompetents turn Canada a country with incredible potential and trillions and resources into a 3rd rate socialist backwater.

Single states in the US with 10m fewer people put us to shame.

Population of Canada – 36.3 million
Population of Texas – 27.6 million
Canada 2018 GDP – 1.651 trillion US
Texas 2018 GDP – 1.639 trillion US

#33 Rico on 04.30.19 at 6:34 pm

“#15 2millionDollarCrackHouse on 04.30.19 at 5:32 pm
Question – I’ve got $50k @ 4% in a 29-month Coast Capital GIC that comes due end of 2020. Should I be worried?”

Coast Capital is CDIC insured up to $100K.

#34 gfd on 04.30.19 at 6:38 pm

https://globalnews.ca/news/2626770/why-you-cant-trust-canadas-unemployment-rate/

#35 Mike on 04.30.19 at 6:45 pm

Governments to rescue:

– Soon B20 will be scrapped
– Kristi Clark 2 will be elected to make Drug Money Laundering Great Again in BC
– My HELoC will increase and I will be richer

Buy Buy!! Now or miss out!!

#36 Upenuff on 04.30.19 at 6:46 pm

So it goes without saying all levels of government are currently on the beating post but the professor here certainly puts our Federal leader into perspective……
Tofino anyone??

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ah1WGYv3yhs

#37 saskatoon on 04.30.19 at 6:48 pm

garth,

to illustrate, imagine for a moment that only two people work for the government, and they each get paid 100k gross.

let’s also assume that the government has 200k aggregate in its vaults.

tax is 10%.

these two workers give 20k combined back to the state in income taxes.

this is called “tax revenue”.

now the state has 20k.

next year, in order to pay the two state employees, the government needs to borrow 180k, for it only has 20k in the vault.

like the previous year, the employees pay 10% tax; and now the government has negative 160k.

they are not contributing to the cost of operating government; they ARE GETTING PAID 180K and giving 20k back…the 20k is money the government already had.

the only person who has contributed to the cost of operating government here…is the person/entity who contributed the initial 200k.

similarly, if i run a business (in a tax free hypothetical world) and my employee’s salary is 80k, and i give them 100k…and they give 20k right back to me…they have not contributed 20k to the cost of operating my business…they have simply returned to me some of the money i already had.

in this sense, taxes on government employees are illusory; might as well eliminate the income tax for them, cut their salary by an equal amount, and stop pretending.

not only this, but they shouldn’t be allowed to participate in that to which they contribute nothing.

Meaningless. – Garth

#38 Lost...but not leased on 04.30.19 at 6:50 pm

Remember the movie ” Die Hard ” ?

That was a real building….the movie studio FOX was building a new office tower and producers used the unfinished building as a set.

What’s the point ???
…as predicted. ….strata/condo market is collapsing.

Sure….vultures will be out….but if the given strata has a high vacancy rate, all sorts of future problems will ensue. These include who pays strata fees?…gov’t penalties like vacancy ?…obtaining insurance?..etc etc.

In other words…if a large % of the building is empty…what’s the trickle down effect on others?

#39 Smoking Man on 04.30.19 at 6:51 pm

Why people are on the side lines in equities is beyond me.
So long as Trump running the show markets will stay on fire. Stock splits and increased dividend.

The Donald’s tweet from today.

up like a rocket if we did some lowering of rates, like one point, and some quantitative easing. Yes, we are doing very well at 3.2% GDP, but with our wonderfully low inflation, we could be setting major records &, at the same time, make our National Debt start to look small!

#40 TurnerNation on 04.30.19 at 6:55 pm

For the shorting Kanada crew…

Genworth to buy back up to 4.37 million shares
Genworth MI to pay 51-cent Q2 dividend May 29
^div hike

#41 Dazed & CONfused on 04.30.19 at 7:03 pm

“….Why would the market care? The TSX is ahead 16% this year, as Vancouver sinks. – Garth

Sure….but only if you continue to cherry-pick a trough.

Alternatively, one could say the TSX remains unchanged (0%) since July of last year.

12-month gain for the TSX is 9.58%. Four-month advance is 15.76%. The market does not care about YVR real estate. – Garth

#42 Re-Cowtown on 04.30.19 at 7:11 pm

So if CRA considers any profit made on the sale of a non-qualifying residence as work related income and adds it to your highest marginal tax rate, it only makes sense that such a loss should be deductible from your income at the highest marginal rate.

CRA, in their greed, may have actually screwed themselves. Oh the horror….

#43 Unhinged Trader on 04.30.19 at 7:11 pm

Great opportunity to buy Cryptocurrency in the coming several months with the imminent failure of a leading exchanges due to insolvency and the failure of one of their USD-backed (allegedly) IOU tokens..

The systemic risk posed by Tether and Bitfinex can wipe out all of the 2017 gains crypto enjoyed and take us down below $1,000 USD BTC…

The findings of the NY Attorney General’s Office are eye-opening:

https://iapps.courts.state.ny.us/fbem/DocumentDisplayServlet?documentId=vIexA1b0spKOnK_PLUS_ZUGTJ3A==&system=prod

Delicious. Keep your powder dry!

#44 Vancouver's 'hostile' housing market nears significant declines, warns PIMCO's Devlin on 04.30.19 at 7:12 pm

Ed Devlin, head of Canadian portfolio management at Pacific Investment Management Co. (PIMCO), told BNN Bloomberg that he’s taking a closer look at the Vancouver market because the decline in house prices there is gaining “momentum.”

“The things that are concerning us … is that there have been a number of local regulations and taxes put in place that have converted Vancouver from probably being the preferred place for Chinese capital flight into real estate to now being openly hostile.”

Devlin questioned who would step in for Chinese investors if they decided to leave Vancouver’s housing market and start selling homes.

Devlin buddy – little behind the 8-ball. Good luck with your research.

Already over the cliff.

#45 will on 04.30.19 at 7:13 pm

still loving the picture from yesterday. as for bc RE, can’t care.

#46 Paul on 04.30.19 at 7:18 pm

City of Vancouver is going to reduce commercial property tax by 2% and increase residential property tax by 2%. lol, Vancouverites are already bleeding from the nose. So glad I stayed away from Vancouver.

#47 Ronaldo on 04.30.19 at 7:20 pm

#18 AK on 04.30.19 at 5:55 pm
“Or the federal Libs on their way to October. Guts everywhere.”
=====================================

Indeed. This event will be blamed on the Russians and Harper
—————————————————————–

Or climate change, lol.

#48 Flop... on 04.30.19 at 7:26 pm

Ah crap…

Vancouver real estate is the topic of the day?

I just came back on, man!

Is this a test?

I think I’m supposed to sit this one out.

Maybe I start giving daily updates on what’s happening with my TFSA…

M44BC

P.S Don, no birthday yet.

Aren’t you supposed to get a surgical glove with a finger in it for your 45th birthday…

#49 shake it off on 04.30.19 at 7:39 pm

Victoria … ha .. Earthquake capital of Canada ..

one day soon … not a good place to invest ..

#50 palebird on 04.30.19 at 7:40 pm

#21 Real Mark
“Considering 4% is a good 2-3% more than the big-5 federally chartered institutions have to pay for their 3-year term funding, the mere fact of such indicates that such carries a higher degree of risk.”

The big money goes to safe havens in these circumstances. For the majority it will be the USD and the Dow Jones. Some consider gold a safe haven also.

#51 Mattl on 04.30.19 at 7:48 pm

Why would the market care? The TSX is ahead 16% this year, as Vancouver sinks. – Garth

Well first off home sales number in Vancouver are getting killed but home prices have, for now, been pretty steady. Surely you understand that a slow down in sales volume isn’t going to take out the TSX. Yes West Van is getting crushed (I could tell you why but that would make me a xenophobe) but most markets are holding around 10 percent down or less. Believe it or not YVR is more then 500 homes in the British Properties.

Do you really think that the local housing market can get crushed without any impact to cdn stocks? Consumer spending has ground to a halt, do you not see any risk for the markets? Why endless posts on RE and no commentary on consumer spending and what the fallout of this mess will look like?

#52 Andrewski on 04.30.19 at 7:49 pm

Re: 31 Dolce Vita, thanks for the link to Blair’s blog!

#53 Flop... on 04.30.19 at 7:50 pm

REBGV just gave me a pre-prepared statement to recite to you guys.

Everything is fine.

Vancouver is up 20% y.o.y.

Just keep buying, do it for the children.

No one just lost 2.5 million on a flip gone wrong.(wink, wink)

Another person did not just lose 5 million on a flip gone wrong. ( nudge, nudge)

Nothing is wrong, you can trust us, we only speak the truth…

M44BC

#54 DQ on 04.30.19 at 7:52 pm

What we’ve seen so far in YVR RE pricing declines is just the beginning. Prices can, will, and should continue to fall until they are in line with local incomes. I’m talking long term mean reversion.

Go look at what the long term average should be and compare that to where prices have been for the last decade or so. More than 2 standard deviations above the long term average. This is not a new normal. This was a decade of skewed pricing based on liquidity, QE, cheap debt, specking, flipping, and foreign money. All we’re doing now is returning to ‘normal’. That ‘normal’ is going to be a serious reality check and bitter pill to swallow for anyone who thought they were some kind of RE investment genius simply because they bought or already owned a home that went up value. Those gains weren’t real, they were illusory. Unless you sold, it was all imaginary. That’s called the wealth effect. You felt rich because someone told you that theoretically your house (that you live in and haven’t sold) is worth millions. Nope. Try again.

Price drops to date of 10% or 20% mean nothing if the asking prices are still 10x local incomes (or more). I don’t know why you act surprised that locals don’t rush in because prices have dropped. Nothing is affordable yet. We’re still waiting for realistic pricing and owners still think they’re millionaires.

Standard 33 foot wide lots in East Vancouver have already sold for $860k, and there are more on the market with asking prices around $899k. The comparables have been set and continue to be set lower each month. Sellers are still delusional thinking they will get 2016 prices, but first comes concern, then fear, then panic, then despair, then capitulation. We’re currently somewhere between concern and fear. The mass stampede for the exits hasn’t started yet, but it will come. Human nature hasn’t changed. Meanwhile the potential buyers with money sitting on the sidelines aren’t touching this market with a ten foot pole. Why catch a falling knife? There will be much better deals in 6/12/18+ months. This thing isn’t about to turn around on a dime and start going back up. There is still a whole bunch of excess that needs to be wrung out of the system.

P.S. Welcome back Flop aka M44BC. You were missed.

#55 Bonhomme Carnaval on 04.30.19 at 8:02 pm

#13 DavidW2 on 04.30.19 at 5:22 pm

Dunno about Ottawa or Halifax, however the Greater Montreal Area is seeing steady increases.

The big money’s in :

-Westmount
-Town of Mount-Royal

The middle class is rocking :
-Laval
-Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu

The hipster’s are in :

-Old-Montreal
-Griffintown

500K goes a long way in the GMA…

#56 AGuyInVancouver on 04.30.19 at 8:05 pm

#8 Concerned citizen on 04.30.19 at 5:07 pm
Please stop saying “anti-Chinese Tax” … completely unhelpful rhetoric.

If it walks like a duck… – Garth
_ _ _
Some of those ducks must have been foreign Millenials then, as CMHC stats revealed around 20% of newbuild condos in Vancouver were sold to foreign buyers. But don’t let facts derail your anti-NDP rant.

#57 Kelowna bound on 04.30.19 at 8:06 pm

Just moved to Kelowna and trying to get a sense of when a good time to buy might be here. The rentals are not that great and the market looks like it might not bottom out for a year or so. Curious if there is any other local perspectives. Cheers.

#58 Mr. Nirp on 04.30.19 at 8:15 pm

Rates has no where to go but down. Emperor trump demands it.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/trump-fed-interest-rates-1.5117085

https://www.ccn.com/dow-would-go-up-like-a-rocket-with-trumps-desired-interest-rate-cut

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/trump-federal-reserve-interest-rates-1.5087312

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trump-today-president-agrees-to-pursue-infrastructure-with-democrats-as-he-leans-on-fed-to-cut-interest-rates-2019-04-30

https://www.bondbuyer.com/articles/trump-pressures-fed-over-interest-rates-as-central-bank-meets?feed=0000015a-fd07-d6dd-a9ff-ff07c9a50000

#59 Old gringo on 04.30.19 at 8:19 pm

RE-#17 Victoria on 04.30.19 at 5:47 pm
Except in Victoria. Talking to people property is still rocking. The best in the world because everybody in the whole wide world wants to live here. In Victoria. On their street.

Okay, put down the crack pipe, call a cab and do not drive.
I’m serious, you are delusional

#60 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.30.19 at 8:19 pm

@#19 Smartalox

“…..don’t forget Realtors! Tax returns have to be filed by midnight tonight – and taxes owing be paid within 5 working days – or interest and penalties may apply!”

*****

Ahahahahahahaha.

Good one.

Even if Realtors had a crappy 2018….taxes are due.

#61 PeterfromCalgary on 04.30.19 at 8:19 pm

If SNC-Lavalin were making condos in BC I am sure Trudeau would find a way to prop them up!

#62 Yukon Elvis on 04.30.19 at 8:45 pm

#57 Kelowna bound on 04.30.19 at 8:06 pm
Just moved to Kelowna and trying to get a sense of when a good time to buy might be here. The rentals are not that great and the market looks like it might not bottom out for a year or so. Curious if there is any other local perspectives. Cheers.
……………………………………….

Been in Kelowna since ‘93. Never seen such a building boom here as in the last few years. It continues. Lots and lots of condos and townhouses. Many sf homes also. Lots and lots of newcomers here, many of them young. Multi family sales seem brisk, not sure about sf. Prices seem to be holding up. I don’t sense a bust or even a slow melt here at present. Of course, overpriced stuff does not sell. Kelowna prices might start to slide when the feeder markets like Vancouver really hit the dumper.

#63 Dogman01 on 04.30.19 at 8:51 pm

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/retirement-annuity-1.5109038

Hey Garth

What do you think about these vehicles?
ALDAs and VPLAs:

————————————————————
“Let’s take a 65-year-old woman who has $500,000 in retirement savings. According to Sun Life Financials’ annuity calculator, if she used those savings to buy an annuity, she could immediately begin collecting an annual pre-tax income-for-life of about $28,000.
An ALDA generating the same income would cost about one-tenth as much, or just $50,000. The catch is that with an ALDA, the income payments don’t kick in until or unless the woman reaches the age of 85.”
——————————————————

Now I do see that if you did not have a desire to leave anything after you croak. The way they describe this ALSA would mean I could spend it all with a Target date of zero at 85 age and then have this ALDA income if I make it.
Vs not knowing how long I have left and therefore how much I need and dying with a big unused stash. (if you have no kids which is becoming more common)

#64 DON on 04.30.19 at 8:55 pm

#6 Simon on 04.30.19 at 4:58 pm

so time to buy yet then?
************

Now that is well needed humour. Good laugh.

#65 DON on 04.30.19 at 9:09 pm

Everything will be OK!

Housing markets usually swing up and down and then up again for good. No need to panic, this is just a little blip and then house prices will increase year over year again forever… Just trying to be positive.

Besides the Bank of Canada says our economy will improve in the 2nd half of the year. Are we currently in not so good shape or our we just experiencing technical difficulties?

I thought the US China deal was a sure thing? US wants a deal soon, as of last week a deal was expected. What gives?

#66 Flop... on 04.30.19 at 9:19 pm

Florida, you are special…

M44BC

“Visualizing The Cost of Renting vs. Owning a Home in Each State.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, homeownership rates dropped in the first quarter of 2019 after steadily rising for the past two years. Factors such as student loan debt, financial insecurity, and high housing prices are disincentivizing some would-be homeowners from buying a property of their own. According to our latest analysis, it is still cheaper to rent than buy a home in most states.

Our latest visualizations use data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s most recent American Community Survey to compare the cost of renting a home and owning a home in each state. To calculate the median monthly mortgage payment, we subtracted median housing costs of houses without mortgages from median housing costs of mortgaged houses. For median rent payments, we used contract rent, which is defined as the monthly rent for a home without including payments for utilities.

The turquoise states on the map above indicate where it is cheaper to rent a home rather than buy a home, with the darker shades of turquoise representing a greater percentage difference between buying and renting. In the purple states, it is cheaper to buy than to rent. Florida is the only state in which it is generally cheaper to buy than to rent. Here’s a breakdown of the median rent and mortgage costs, state by state:

Top 10 States/Territories Where Renting is Cheaper Than Buying

1. Puerto Rico – 85% cheaper to rent than buy
2. Montana – 42% cheaper to rent than buy
3. Wyoming – 40% cheaper to rent than buy
4. Alabama – 39% cheaper to rent than buy
5. Kentucky – 35% cheaper to rent than buy
6. Louisiana – 34% cheaper to rent than buy
7. North Dakota – 33% cheaper to rent than buy
8. South Dakota – 33% cheaper to rent than buy
9. Mississippi – 33% cheaper to rent than buy
10. Rhode Island – 31% cheaper to rent than buy

Contrary to popular belief about rising home prices in major coastal hubs like New York City and San Francisco, conditions for home buyers are generally a little friendlier on the West Coast and the East Coast compared to the South or Great Plains. In the South and Great Plains, it is still significantly cheaper to rent than to buy, often leading to savings of 33% percent or more on housing costs. The geographic outliers are Puerto Rico ($688 mortgage vs. $371 rent) and Rhode Island ($1,089 mortgage vs. $832 rent). If you still have dreams of homeownership, regardless of where you live, you may find it easier to rent for a few years to save up for a down payment.”

https://howmuch.net/articles/cost-of-renting-vs-owning-a-home-in-each-state

#67 DON on 04.30.19 at 9:22 pm

#17 Victoria on 04.30.19 at 5:47 pm

Except in Victoria. Talking to people property is still rocking. The best in the world because everybody in the whole wide world wants to live here. In Victoria. On their street.
*************

Yup and listings are slowly increasing on their street.

In the last 3 weeks listings have steadily increased in the West Shore communities of the Greater Victoria Area. The ‘Sold’ signs are loosing the game. Get out before your neighbour realizes prices are TOO HIGH much like them.

#68 Al on 04.30.19 at 9:42 pm

Still crazy expensive, meh. Ppl love that rain in V.

#69 DON on 04.30.19 at 9:50 pm

#48 Flop… on 04.30.19 at 7:26 pm

P.S Don, no birthday yet.

Aren’t you supposed to get a surgical glove with a finger in it for your 45th birthday…

************

Can’t confirm…I hear they have another procedure in place of that surgical glove or I least I hope.

Nice having you back.

#70 Reality is stark on 04.30.19 at 10:35 pm

When people realize they have jobs primarily due to the false wealth affect created by a government induced false real estate market it’s too late.
The dopes in B.C. calling for a socialist government to cull the most significant sector providing work will now have trouble trying to feed their children.
People are as dumb as stumps.
At some point they are going to realize that all their social justice warrior training which teaches them their rights in family court isn’t worth anything either when you can’t get the other side to sign up. No one wants to sign a death wish.
Our education system has become an idiot training camp.
The premise is to teach kids to find out who owes you what. Canada, the home of mediocrity.
May the dollar disintegrate and poverty be your friend.

#71 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.30.19 at 11:03 pm

DELETED

#72 not 1st on 04.30.19 at 11:07 pm

Kenny proclaims law to turn off taps.

https://edmontonjournal.com/news/politics/this-law-is-unconstitutional-b-c-to-take-alberta-to-court-after-kenney-proclaims-turn-off-the-taps-legislation

Don’t worry BC. Soon you will be carbon free then you can be a shining example to the rest of the country, UN, Bono, Suzuki and DiCaprio.

#73 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.30.19 at 11:09 pm

Turns out the oil containers on Burnaby Mountain are almost 70 years old.
Sure double the pipelines and see what happens to Burnaby when these containers burst.

#74 Rargary on 04.30.19 at 11:28 pm

RE-#17 Victoria on 04.30.19 at 5:47 pm
Except in Victoria. Talking to people property is still rocking. The best in the world because everybody in the whole wide world wants to live here. In Victoria. On their street.

Okay, put down the crack pipe, call a cab and do not drive.
I’m serious, you are delusional

And #67…. LMFAO!!

My ex hubby’s gf begging he move to Victoria to retire early with her. She’salready moved there. Lol.. She tries to lure him with free trips to Mexico! HAHAHAHA He won’t because I refuse to and I have our special needs daughter. I DON’T WANT TO BE STUCK ON AN ISLAND. So, no, not everybody wants that Victoria chum!

#75 Dan on 04.30.19 at 11:59 pm

Garth, I don’t see any changes in Victoria. Any insight on that market?

#76 Ronaldo on 05.01.19 at 12:25 am

Rex Murphy saying it like it is. Great speech.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_toqPJpyeGw

#77 Vanreal on 05.01.19 at 12:29 am

A house on my street in Eastside Vancouver just sold for 2.2 mill. 200,000 over asking. It depends where you are as to how badly you’re taking a hit.

#78 Russ on 05.01.19 at 12:40 am

Al on 04.30.19 at 9:42 pm

Still crazy expensive, meh. Ppl love that rain in V.
=======================

What are you talking about about?

Have you checked the weather any time in the past six months?

The promise of global warming is finally here on the West Coast and we are enjoying the benefits that were predicted a couple of decades ago.

We might even grow some peaches on the Island this year.

Cheers, R

#79 april on 05.01.19 at 1:07 am

#65 – Your wrong. This is no “little blip”…. a long way down yet. You must be a realtor. Folks stay out of the housing market especially if your going in to debt to buy.

#80 Smoking Man on 05.01.19 at 1:42 am

If your kids think man made climate change is real. You failed as parents. Take out a helock so they can buy a condo.

Me I’m a bad daddy.

My first job reading people while selling lenonaid from my stand.

99% of people bought inflated priced cool aid from the cute kid. Same as taxes today

Idiots..

Dr Smoking Man
PhD Herdonomics.

Did James die, were the hell are my insults.

#81 Dolce Vita on 05.01.19 at 2:06 am

#52 Andrewski

Your welcome.

I say, give credit where it’s due and NEVER pass off the good work of others as your own.

AB born here, worked many years in the oil & gas industry and when I read Langley Alchemists take on what is going on in my other favorite Province, BC, I thought…what a smart guy.

You have to feel sorry for John Horgan. Contest another TM pipeline and watch gasoline prices surge or…

Good news for Canadians as we own the existing TM pipeline although I doubt we are earning any good return on that $4.5 Billion investment we have made…or that we know of.

What a messed up World we live in. The concept of Nation Building gone awry in Canada when it comes to NIMBY concerns.

The good of the BC many trumped by 3 NIMBY NDP seats. They should levy a gasoline surge charge on the voters from those 3 ridings for what the rest of BC has to pay extra for.

The lust for power trumps common sense, yet again.

Oddly, Andrew Weaver very quiet about all this…I wonder why?

#82 Dolce Vita on 05.01.19 at 2:12 am

#39 Smoking Man

Agree.

Why I dumped Maple and went Stars & Stripes forever.

Besides 2020 an election year, nothing ever happens before then unless a Depression…unlikely.

For a Righty that smokes and has a dim view of our current PM, not bad (I smoke too but a Lefty, 67% coincidence).

People can come together when you look at the bright side of things.

#83 Anon3mouse on 05.01.19 at 3:28 am

I honestly cant believe the negativity and hostility here, instead of anti-chinese tax just call it chinese tax daaaaaah!

Ps can someone please do a piece on how to get these cheap Audi’s??

#84 NEVER GIVE UP on 05.01.19 at 3:28 am

Garth:
How is it that Vancouver is correcting rapidly due to NDP policy a bad thing?

Price declines have only just begun, The market is still a most definite 50% overvalued. People still purchasing a concrete box in the air for $600k should be able to get them for $300k.

Developers and Governments Civic and Provincial are all drunk on the profits and taxes they are receiving.
Developers have no need to be frugal so they go all out with the extras. People can get by with basic units with a white fridge and basic counter tops and would gladly trade that for the whoring of the pricing of our real estate market that we have now!

The price rout has only just begun. Lets correct the fraud that has become our home market and bring on all levels of measures to stop using our homes to shelter money instead of people.

#85 Stan Brooks on 05.01.19 at 4:50 am

Robot automation will ‘take 800 million jobs by 2030’ – report

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-42170100

Luckily for us our illustrious PM is already working on finding replacement jobs: In the pot industry and ethnic military forces/militias:

Canadian soldiers carry guns in ‘full fighting order’ at Toronto’s Khalsa Day

https://globalnews.ca/news/5223262/canadian-soldiers-unmuzzled-weapons-khalsa-day/

#86 Howard on 05.01.19 at 5:10 am

Little more than a year ago 94% of pre-con condos were snapped up by hungry Mills.

——————————————

And AGAIN you make this claim without evidence.

No, the buyers were almost certainly predominantly older investors.

#87 MF on 05.01.19 at 7:02 am

#45 will on 04.30.19 at 7:13 pm
“still loving the picture from yesterday. as for bc RE, can’t care.”

-Pretty much this. Don’t care about Vancouver RE at all. Plus, from what I’ve read, the most miserable people on this site tend to be from BC followed closely by Alberta.

MF

#88 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.01.19 at 7:42 am

@#73 ponzie petrol

“Sure double the pipelines and see what happens to Burnaby when these containers burst…”

++++

We’ll all put on our Goretex jackets, put on our foam padded shoes, grab our nylon umbrellas and walk to the bus stop.
When the diesel belching combustion engine bus arrives we will then pull out our plastic debit cards to pay and ride the buses to Burnaby to stand around quietly.
We will make signs with markers and nail them to poles.
We will paint our faces to look intimidating or wear plastic “Guy Fawlkes” masks just like in the movie.
The police will arrive by the dozens in their gas powered vehicles to watch.
When the media arrives in THEIR diesel or gas or propane driven vehicles we will all begin jumping up and down feigning outrage at the big bad polluters.
If we are not then arrested we will set up camp.
We will build protection with plastic tarps and nylon tents.
Our food and water will be stored in plastic containers.
Our bathroom will be in a plastic outhouse.
We will eat off plastic or styrofoam plates, throw our garbage in plastic garbage bags and build smoky camp fires with wood delivered to us by gas driven vehicles.
Gas will be used to run small generators to provide power for our plastic clad, tv’s , laptops and phones.
We will watch ourselves on tv and be proud.
We know what is right because we are smarter than all the other stupid sheeple.
Eventually we will be arrested and driven to jail in diesel busses where our lawyers must drive in their gas power cars to bails us out.
All our Camp materials; the plastic tarps, nylon tents, plastic food containers, garbage, etc will be removed by the City of Burnaby to be taken to the dump/landfill in large diesel belching trucks……

Hurray!

The big bad gas companies sure learned a lesson!

Lets all go to Starbucks and buy ourselves a Latte.
We won!

#89 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.01.19 at 7:52 am

@#81 Dolce
“Oddly, Andrew Weaver very quiet about all this…I wonder why?”

++++++

Dream Weaver has had his 15 minutes of fame.
He’s sitting back and enjoying the ride.
Every so often he hauls himself out into the sunlight to make some wheezy utterance about how bad the NDP, Big Business, blah blah blah, is.
Dream Weaver loves to hear himself speak.
Then back into his comfy office he scurries.
As long as his small “party” hold’s the reigns to the NDP’s minority power grab….
He doesnt have to do anything.

#90 Phylis on 05.01.19 at 8:17 am

#83 cheap audis… go to leasebusters.com any you can see what the fools are paying. They arent cheap, just fools looking for greater fools.

#91 Howard on 05.01.19 at 8:20 am

#89 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.01.19 at 7:52 am

I hope the next BC election (which I imagine isn’t too far off since it’s a minority gov, maybe next spring?) has the NDP win a majority, Greens as strong official opposition, and Liberals reduced to non-party status. Hopefully the BC Conservatives can finally win a few seats and build from there. The Liberals’ selling out of the province to developers and criminals needs to be punished with political oblivion.

#92 isuckless on 05.01.19 at 8:44 am

While in Ottawa – bidding wars, even across the river in Gatineau prices are going up. Realtors advertising sales over the asking price, pumping the market up. Real estate is LOCAL and not connected to logic.

#93 NoName on 05.01.19 at 8:58 am

It would be great if someone can make Quando, Quando, Quando in to Avocado, Avocado, Avocado or even better condo, condo, condo…

https://www.eater.com/2019/4/29/18522601/free-avocado-toast-house-millennials-vancouver-condo-woodbridge-homes

Condo developers invite millennials to buy a house, avocado toast on the side
In an attempt to court home buyers, a bougie new condo development in Vancouver, Canada, is making a familiar, shameless play for millennial homebuyers by promising a year’s supply of free avocado toast with the purchase of a $399,900+ ($296,000+ USD) home, Munchies reports. Each new resident of the Woodbridge Homes’ Kira condos will get a gift card to a local restaurant loaded up with enough cash for 52 orders of avocado toast—one for every weekend of the year.

Some expensive toast, buy press play anyways…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xtAbFwOOkEY

#94 NoName on 05.01.19 at 8:59 am

addendum to privious post, sing along and just replace Quando with condo…

#95 CHERRY BLOSSOM on 05.01.19 at 9:03 am

Watch KEVIN O’LEARY on You Tube as he lectures on “Canadian Prime Minister” Talk about Canadian finances and doom and gloom. This short video will really entertain you

#96 Gravy Train on 05.01.19 at 9:12 am

#88 snug smelly lift on 05.01.19 at 7:42 am
“[…] plastic debit cards […] wear plastic […] plastic tarps […] plastic containers […] plastic outhouse […] plastic […] plates […] plastic garbage bags […] plastic-clad […] plastic tarps […] plastic food containers […].” You do know that plastic can be reused and recycled, right?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plastic_recycling

#97 BillyBob on 05.01.19 at 9:29 am

#27 CL on 04.30.19 at 6:24 pm
Hi – anyone know resources to help explain how best to leave Canada for a more reasonable lower tax jurisdiction? Love this place but can learn to love another if I can keep more than 46% of earnings. I reduced hours to reduce the impact of this high marginal rate, but it still takes a huge bite.

===================================

Uhhh…if you have portable in-demand skills, you just leave. Cut all your CRA-defined ties and never talk to them again. It’s a beautiful thing.

Tons of websites and online resources dedicated to people willing to step outside their comfort bubble. Do your homework, but it isn’t terribly difficult.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

#70 Reality is stark on 04.30.19 at 10:35 pm
When people realize they have jobs primarily due to the false wealth affect created by a government induced false real estate market it’s too late.
The dopes in B.C. calling for a socialist government to cull the most significant sector providing work will now have trouble trying to feed their children.
People are as dumb as stumps.
At some point they are going to realize that all their social justice warrior training which teaches them their rights in family court isn’t worth anything either when you can’t get the other side to sign up. No one wants to sign a death wish.
Our education system has become an idiot training camp.
The premise is to teach kids to find out who owes you what. Canada, the home of mediocrity.
May the dollar disintegrate and poverty be your friend.

==================================

Far too much truth here. The head-scratcher is why MF hasn’t already confronted you and explained why Canada, especially Toronto, is the best place in the world lol. I have a feeling he’s really just a frustrated version of The Real Mark. Which must be like frustration-squared.

#98 Citizen on 05.01.19 at 9:48 am

Stay away from fast cars, loose women

and cheap money!

#99 n1tro on 05.01.19 at 10:04 am

#98 Citizen on 05.01.19 at 9:48 am
Stay away from fast cars, loose women
and cheap money!
—————————
What’s the point of living (if you are a straight male that is)?!

#100 millmech on 05.01.19 at 10:16 am

#85
Just imagine the headlines if that were “white male” soldiers parading around with military hardware at a parade, the triggering of every “affected” group( this would take days to list) would still be ongoing, and every time someone even viewed the image the triggering would happen again.

#101 Stan Brooks for PM on 05.01.19 at 10:22 am

#85 Stan Brooks on 05.01.19 at 4:50 am
“Robot automation will ‘take 800 million jobs by 2030’ – report..”

Stan, stop being a fence sitter and roll up your sleeves and run for political office. This country needs you at our helm!! Or at least in Ottawa to keep the politicians in check…

#102 Mattl on 05.01.19 at 10:28 am

#57 Kelowna bound on 04.30.19 at 8:06 pm
Just moved to Kelowna and trying to get a sense of when a good time to buy might be here. The rentals are not that great and the market looks like it might not bottom out for a year or so. Curious if there is any other local perspectives. Cheers.

———————————————————–

Guess it depends on your budget and where you want to live. We moved here 2 years ago and at that time, where we wanted to live, there were very few lakeview properties under 1MM. Lots more inventory today, it feels to me like out of towners are selling homes due to the spec tax. There are a number of nice homes in the 850K range that are empty, and just went on MLS.

One thing to consider about Kelowna is home prices were mostly flat from 2007-2015. Huge ramp from 2016-2018. There will be a decline, but if it is relative to the run up the past 10 years I wouldn’t expect anything too crazy. Market has only gone up 6 or 7 points per year the past decade and is still, IMO, reasonably affordable. I mean you can get an acreage, lake view, 15 mins from the airport and 25 mins from downtown for the price of a new build in Maple Ridge (850K). Or a 1990s rancher in Westside for 450K. Wether or not that’s good value is up to you, but I don’t see these places going back to significantly – these homes for in the 600’s and 300s 10 years ago.

So IMO value isn’t terrible here, likely some more softening coming and wouldn’t be surprised to see 15-20% reductions on the least desirable properties (see Rutland). There should be lots of inventory for buyers and I bet you could get a decent deal if you are in for the long haul – as you mentioned, rents are ridiculous.

#103 MaggieB on 05.01.19 at 10:31 am

#78 Russ

What are YOU talking about? My dad grew peaches in Victoria 50 years ago!

MaggieB

#104 Ron Jeremy on 05.01.19 at 10:57 am

#98 Citizen on 05.01.19 at 9:48 am
“Stay away from fast cars, loose women and cheap money!”

Why avoid loose women??

#105 not 1st on 05.01.19 at 11:10 am

They are coming for it.

Chrystia Freeland Promotes Tax Hikes For The 1% To Avoid ‘Crummy Society’

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2019/05/01/chrystia-freeland-taxes-rich_a_23720034/

#106 Remembrancer on 05.01.19 at 11:40 am

#85 Stan Brooks on 05.01.19 at 4:50 am
#100 millmech on 05.01.19 at 10:16 am

Canadian soldiers carry guns in ‘full fighting order’ at Toronto’s Khalsa Day

https://globalnews.ca/news/5223262/canadian-soldiers-unmuzzled-weapons-khalsa-day/
————————————
First of all from the picture, that wasn’t “marching in full fighting order”, more akin to a disorganized gaggle and second of all, contrary to the inflammatory headline / link – there is no muzzling while on parade when done to the manual – civilian reporter is likely referring to the (usually) yellow blank firing adapter required for proper operation when blanks are used.

That said, the higher ups need to get a grip on this, PDQ…

#107 IHCTD9 on 05.01.19 at 12:05 pm

Ah, nothing better than home ownership.

I’ll be doing a pile of roofing this spring over 3 different roofs of my house. Shovel the old stuff off, nail down new stuff, dispose of garbage. At least I’ve got a nail gun and two kids to help out this time.

The driveway needs to be dug out and re-done, the base is likely still the 1800’s version originally installed when the house was built. topping it with A gravel no longer keeps the mud at bay in the spring, and all kinds of stuff grows in it. It’s going to take ~60 yards to do the whole thing including the parking area out back which is almost 100% green at this point.

Need to stain nearly 900 sf of deck. The paint is peeling off 40-50′ worth of railing. Trees need trimmed back to let the dump trucks in the driveway, and to clear high tension wires along the easement. Soffit and fascia repairs in a couple areas. I have a pile of shop and yard garbage, scrap metal, concrete and rock, and scrap wood that all needs dealing with.

The place was cheap, so I don’t mind. I’d be real pissed if I had just paid a mil for it though – and here in Canada; there are plenty who did. Kids – it had better be a bloody peach, built great, and brand spanking new for a Mil. In fact, it better be all that for 500K…

#108 Remembrancer on 05.01.19 at 12:06 pm

#83 Anon3mouse on 05.01.19 at 3:28 am

Ps can someone please do a piece on how to get these cheap Audi’s??
———————————–
Here’s an example of a prime location – the four door ones are the agents’…

https://leasebusters.com/en/Search-for-a-lease-take-over-vehicle.asp

#109 Vampire studies (post grad) on 05.01.19 at 12:08 pm

74 rargary – how are you “stuck” on an island if you can get to Mexico?

#110 Damifino on 05.01.19 at 12:14 pm

#88 crowdedelevatorfartz

How superbly cynical.

But not much I can argue with.

#111 Steven Rowlandson on 05.01.19 at 12:27 pm

Since raises in income are officially deemed to be inflationary and can not be allowed you will not see 700% raises to provide income support for the real estate market. There will not be any half million dollar or more cheques issued to first time home buyers either.
It is entirely possible that the real estate market has gone too far for too long and judgment day is coming.
The new trend of no bids ought to be a wake up call. It means that there is no income support for existing home prices and that means a theoretical at or near zero price. Home will go for what buyers can afford as a reasonable proportion of their single income or for cash. Yes it can be that scary folks. If you have an un-housed labor force that makes minimum wage then that means maximum home prices could be equal to or less than $84,000 and even that will seem expensive.

#112 MaxBerniersShorts on 05.01.19 at 12:44 pm

#46 Paul
The City of Vancouver has long placed more of the tax burden on businesses than any other Canadian city. Shifting more of the burden to residents is long overdue!

#113 James on 05.01.19 at 12:49 pm

#80 Smoking Man on 05.01.19 at 1:42 am

If your kids think man made climate change is real. You failed as parents. Take out a helock so they can buy a condo.
Me I’m a bad daddy.
My first job reading people while selling lenonaid from my stand.
99% of people bought inflated priced cool aid from the cute kid. Same as taxes today
Idiots..
Dr Smoking Man
PhD Herdonomics.
Did James die, were the hell are my insults.
___________________________________________
Nope I’m here impartially observing and construing carefully projected words of wisdom. None from you of course. No insults required Old Man your doing a fine job on your own.

BTW. Your post #39 Smoking Man on 04.30.19 at 6:51 pm on debt vs GDP. So how is that going? Record high could be topped this year?

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-debt-to-gdp

#114 JB on 05.01.19 at 1:43 pm

Even a developer who’s famously offering avocado toast for a year to condo-buying moisters can’t stem the tide. This thing currently has four paws in the air, despite cheap mortgages, falling prices and spring hormones.

Little more than a year ago 94% of pre-con condos were snapped up by hungry Mills. They lined up in sales pavilions. They flooded online reservations. They unblinkingly coughed up whatever outrageous prices the developers asked.

That 94% has now dwindled to about 15%, which means the developers and sellers are desperate, not the kids. Prices have dropped 6% in a year with more to come. Sales levels have crashed to the lowest point in 18 years. The number of assignments is soaring as recent buyers scramble to get out prior to closing. As local realtor Steve Saretsky points out, the unsold condo inventory across the region has mushroomed 184%.
………………………………………………………………….
So if you bought a condo your an idiot. If your about to buy a condo then your about to be an idiot!
Sit and wait my friends, two years the bottom will finally be there for your pickings. Then you can go an buy that concrete dream in the sky for the price that it should be.

#115 jess on 05.01.19 at 2:22 pm

A report from the Wall Street Journal. “The Morgan family of western New York built one of the country’s largest rental apartment empires, amassing more than 140 properties and more than 34,000 units across 14 states. Now the family business, Morgan Management, is beginning to shrink as it faces one of the largest mortgage fraud investigations since the financial crisis.”

“Prosecutors allege that Morgan executives and their mortgage brokers obtained about $500 million of loans fraudulently by overstating their buildings’ income and occupancy levels, according to court records, mortgage records and other documents filed by the U.S. attorney’s office in Buffalo, N.Y., as part of an investigation of the business.”

“That is about triple the amount of allegedly fraudulent loans identified in court papers in a 2018 indictment of two family members and two mortgage brokers who worked with the family.”

“The real-estate industry is watching the case closely because the guilty pleas have raised questions about whether lenders, including Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, sufficiently examine every tenant lease to verify that borrowers are telling the truth about income. When they don’t, that could make it easier for owners to inflate the amount of debt they borrow against the property.”

“Patrick Ogiony, the mortgage broker who pleaded guilty to conspiracy to commit bank fraud in March, said 20 Morgan owned and managed apartment complexes in six states were involved in his crimes. He said abuses included providing false rent rolls to lenders, misrepresenting purchase prices and deceiving inspectors into thinking unoccupied units were occupied, according to a statement by the U.S. attorney’s office.”
read more @
http://housingbubble.blog/

==========================

has anyone noticed all the new platforms out there to finance down payments

the top aussie apps all seem to be finance related
along with these i read about on housing wire :

” Zero down payment loans are now available for real estate investors
Hard Money Sources will allow investors to finance 100% of real estate purchases
Hard Money Sources, which connects borrowers and lenders in the private investment and hard money marketplace, announced this week that real estate investors can now get a loan to cover the entire value of their investment. That’s right: as much as 100% of the loan-to-value ratio.

homeownership investment company Landed announced that it scored a capital infusion that would fuel its core mission to help more educators afford homes near their work. offers school teachers in grades K-12 and college professors and staff the opportunity to take on an investor to afford a down payment.It pays half of the standard down payment up to $120,000, realizing a return on its investment by taking 25% of the appreciation gain when the property is sold. If the home doesn’t appreciate, Landed shoulders the loss.

https://www.housingwire.com/articles/48922-sale-leaseback-company-sparrow-launches-in-phoenix

=======

the “worse” carried forward

from 1992 william safire calls him the cover up general
Bill Barr: The “Cover-Up General”
“At the center of the criticism is the chief artic­ulator of Bush’s imperial presidency,” we wrote in 1992, “the man who wrote the legal rationale for the Gulf War, the Panama invasion, and the officially sanctioned kidnapping of foreign nationals abroad”
by Frank Snepp
April 18, 2019

https://www.villagevoice.com/2019/04/18/attorney-general-william-barr-is-the-best-reason-to-vote-for-clinton/

#116 jess on 05.01.19 at 2:53 pm

20 BlorgDorg on 04.30.19 at 6:02 pm

In the S&L crisis, the federal government recapitalized the FSLIC when taxpayers footed the bill for dodgy mortgage loans. …

those guys went to jail
William Black: Sure. The savings and loan debacle was one-seventieth the size of the current crisis, both in terms of losses and the amount of fraud. In that crisis, the savings and loan regulators made over 30,000 criminal referrals, and this produced over 1,000 felony convictions in cases designated as “major” by the Department of Justice. But even that understates the degree of prioritization, because we, the regulators, worked very closely with the FBI and the Justice Department to create a list of the top 100 — the 100 worst fraud schemes. They involved roughly 300 savings and loans and 600 individuals, and virtually all of those people were prosecuted. We had a 90 percent conviction rate, which is the greatest success against elite white-collar crime (in terms of prosecution) in history.”

https://billmoyers.com/2013/09/17/hundreds-of-wall-street-execs-went-to-prison-during-the-last-fraud-fueled-bank-crisis/

=====
Money laundering

In addition to violations of lending laws, BCCI was also accused of opening accounts or laundering money for figures such as Saddam Hussein, Manuel Noriega, Hussain Muhammad Ershad, and Samuel Doe,[11] and for criminal organizations such as the Medellin Cartel and Abu Nidal.[13] Police and intelligence experts nicknamed BCCI the “Bank of Crooks and Criminals International” for its penchant for catering to customers who dealt in arms, drugs, and hot money.[14]

William von Raab, a former U.S. Commissioner of Customs, also told the Kerry Committee that the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency held “several” accounts at BCCI. According to a 1991 article in TIME magazine, the National Security Council also had accounts at BCCI, which were used for a variety of covert operations, including transfers of money and weapons for Iran-Contra.[15]

“Mr. Mueller indicated to Mr. Rivera and to me as well that they would prefer that our indictment — that we work aggressively on it as much as possible… I received a phone call a little bit before noon on August 22 from Denis Saylor who indicated to me that I was directed not to return the BCCI indictment. And I asked who was directing me not to return it, and he said Attorney General William Barr…” (US Atty Lehtinen)

“As Robert Mueller III, the Assistant Attorney General at the Justice Department now in charge of the BCCI investigation, testified in October, 1991: BCCI was not an ordinary bank. It was set up deliberately to avoid centralized regulatory review, and operated extensively in bank secrecy jurisdictions. Its affairs are extraordinarily complex. Its offers were sophisticated international bankers whose apparent objective was to keep their affairs secret, to commit fraud on a massive scale, and to avoid detection” (“The BCCI Affair A Report to the Committee on Foreign RelationsUnited States Senate by Senator John Kerry and Senator Hank BrownDecember 1992“) https://archive.org/stream/TheBCCIAffair/The-BCCI-Affair_djvu.txt

=========
what no avocados/free coffees for a year
“Most recently in Seattle, which has been experiencing an oversupply in rental housing, many landlords have accompanied their rental property listings with perks of gift cards worth as much as $2,000 plus months of free rent.”

#117 millmech on 05.01.19 at 3:46 pm

#57
Hold off and you will get 50% reductions in pricing, it has just started, a lot of people in the valley are in new home construction and when it dries up, which it will they will be flogging their house to relocate to better areas. Been There Done That!

#118 Russ on 05.01.19 at 4:08 pm

#78 Russ

What are YOU talking about? My dad grew peaches in Victoria 50 years ago!

MaggieB
================

We had a couple of trees too. But they were only good in a well protected area, up against a south facing wall of the house.

I’m talking about a whole orchard might be possible now.

That should add a bit to tourism… soon to be announced “The Victoria Peach Festival (and avocado toast)”.

#119 LP on 05.01.19 at 4:54 pm

A change of subject:

For those of you here who decry the absence of life skills taught to our students, there is a news item on-line in Microsoft News that tells of a high school in Windsor that offers a course for kids about to leave grade 12. The course is called “adulting” skills. There are around 100 students enrolled who are being taught budgetting/credit cards; how to change a tire and check the oil; how to sew on a button/hem a pair of pants; 5 recipes from one rotisserie chicken; and minor home maintenance repairs (holes in drywall, checking the breaker panel, turning off the water at a leaking sink or toilet).

I recall teaching those things and more like them at 4H, but life has changed. Maybe we’re going back there.

#120 Dups on 05.02.19 at 2:06 pm

That Chrystia Freeland has no business being a prime minister. She will drive a big wedge between US and Canada to the point that we might be enemies.

If you want more tax income, fire the paper pusher public servants, they are the majority 1%-ers in beaver land.