What comes next

RYAN By Guest Blogger Ryan Lewenza

What a great start to the year! The global equity markets have done a complete 180 from the disastrous fourth quarter with the S&P 500 and TSX both up roughly 17% year-to-date, as of April 22nd. I don’t know who to thank first – the Federal Reserve or President Trump?

In Q4/18 we saw the first 20% correction since the financial crisis with the global equity markets tumbling roughly 10% in October and December. With the weakness in the fourth quarter the S&P 500 and TSX returned -4.4% and -8.9%, respectively, in 2018. In our view, the two key factors behind last year’s decline were the Fed’s four rate hikes and Trump’s ongoing trade war with China (him “going off the rails” in December by threatening to fire the Fed Chairman and his decision to shut down the US government over funding for the border wall didn’t help things!). As I’ve been saying for a while now, Trump is a walking contradiction who brings both good stuff to the economy and stock market (e.g., tax cuts, deregulation) and bad stuff (e.g., tariffs that weigh on economic activity and at times his impulsive and erratic behavior).

The reason I want to thank the Fed and Trump is that they changed course in Q1, which has led to this great recovery in the equity markets. Let me explain.

First the Fed. US growth was strong last year (the US economy grew at a 2.9% pace in 2018) in large part driven by the incredible strength in the US labour market (the US economy added another 2.7 million jobs with the unemployment rate dropping to a multi-decade low of 3.8%).

As such, the Fed felt compelled to hike benchmark rates by 1% last year to 2.5% to avoid over-heating and to move away from the zero-bound interest rates that have existed since the financial crisis.

However, as the global economy began to slow late last year and market volatility increased, the Fed then backed away from future rate hikes stating they had become “data dependent”. This helped catalyze the quick turnaround in the markets and can be seen in the chart below. The chart overlays the S&P 500 with the Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index, which tracks interest rates, FX, stock valuations and credit spreads. Note how when the Fed backed off from further rate hikes, interest rates quickly dropped pushing the index lower (Note: it’s inverted on the chart to better show the relationship) and, in turn, the S&P 500 higher. Thanks Fed!

With respect to Trump and his ongoing trade wars, here we’ve seen some very positive developments, which assuredly have contributed to this year’s impressive rally. It appears talks between the US and China are progressing nicely and we could be just a few months away from a landmark trade deal between the two largest economies in the world. If a trade deal is announced, this could be a huge positive for both the global economy and Trump’s presidency. It would remove a lot of uncertainty in the markets, lead to increased purchases of US goods from China, and finally be a major win for President Trump. I believe if a deal is ratified that this could be the most significant achievement of Trump’s presidency, and he should be applauded for this.

Where do we go from here?

If my assessment of the markets are correct, then it’s possible that much of the gains are already baked in, and for the markets to advance meaningfully from here we’ll need something else to incite “animal spirits” and drive the markets higher. No we’re not talking about the arrival of the final season of Game of Thrones (which is awesome); we’re talking about improving fundamentals, particularly, a rebound in global growth and corporate profits.

Equities Rally on Prospect of Less Fed Rate Hikes

Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments

Momentum in the global economy has been slowing since the summer of last year. This can be seen in economists’ expectations for global growth. Last spring economists were expecting the global economy to grow 3.7% this year and now they see the global economy growing 3.4%.

In our view the slowdown can be attributed to a number of factors including: 1) the uncertainty over Brexit and the impact on the European economy; 2) Trump’s ongoing trade feud with China, which has significantly weighed on the Chinese economy, and 3) the waning effect of the Trump tax cuts on the US economy. But I see reasons for optimism.

First, a mild slowdown, which is what we expect in 2019, is far different than an outright recession. Second, if Trump and China are able to hash out a trade deal this should remove a lot of uncertainty and likely lead to a stabilization of China’s economy. And lastly, many leading indicators that we track suggest a potential bottoming in global economic momentum. In particular, we’ve seen an improvement in some key purchasing managers indices (PMIs), which track manufacturing activity (e.g., China’s PMI increased from a low of 48.3 in January to 50.8 in March) and in the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index for the major economies. This great economic indicator tracks how economic data is coming in versus expectations. As seen below, this index has been steadily declining for over a year but is showing early signs of a possible bottom. If correct, we could be on the cusp of an economic inflection point with stronger economic activity possible in the coming months.

Citigroup’s Surprise Index Could Be Signaling a Bottom

Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments

This potential turn in the economy couldn’t come at a better time with investor attention turning to US corporate earnings. I believe that for the S&P 500 and TSX to break above the all-time highs and advance further this year, fundamentals (e.g., corporate earnings) need to come through. And while it’s still early in the Q1 earnings season, results so far look to be exceeding expectations.

Currently Q1/19 S&P 500 earnings are tracking for year-over-year growth of roughly 7%. If the remainder of the results track this trend, then earnings will come in 4-5% better than expectations and we should hear a lot less about an “earnings recession”. We were never in this camp believing that earnings were going to slow from last year’s strong results, but still remain positive for 2019. Overall, analysts expect earnings to grow at 8% year-over-year in 2018, which is in-line with our expectations.

In summary, the markets have had a great start to the year and while in the shorter term we could see some consolidation, I believe the fundamentals (improving economy and positive earnings growth) could propel the equity markets even higher this year with the S&P 500 and TSX hitting new all-time highs. Here’s hoping!

Earnings Need to Come Through

Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments
Ryan Lewenza, CFA, CMT is a Partner and Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments, and a Senior Vice President, Private Client Group, of Raymond James Ltd.

 

101 comments ↓

#1 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.27.19 at 11:31 am

#86 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.27.19 at 9:24 am
@#71 Doug in Londinium
“When a lot of commenters here are bellyaching about how something has dropped in price, like stocks and equity ETFs last December, it’s a sure signal that it’s time to buy. It’s called reading between the lines.”

*****

So I should sell the gas in my tank?
—————-
Yes.
Before it gets stolen.
Thars gold in them tanks.
Especially in them F-150.

#2 Interest Rates on 04.27.19 at 11:32 am

Hello Ryan,

Excellent assessment but what are your thoughts on world economies that cannot even handle 2% interest rates? How do we fix the next recession with so few bullets in the chamber?

Thanks.

#3 T on 04.27.19 at 11:33 am

Interesting perspective

You left out a few things.

1) GDP in the states posted a blow out-oh my god things are awesome! 3.1%…and yet interest rates dropped. Is the Bond market dumb?

2) 50 basis point cut. Not only stated over and over by Trump but by Kudlow. Why? Fed has a dual mandate yes/no? And GDP is 3.1% yet they were screaming for a 50 basis point cut 6 weeks ago. Now things are roses?

What it looks like it looks like to me a retest of the top. One last time. And the “sell the news” is coming with the trade deal–that will be essentially a press conference with nothing in it.

If you think I am wrong. Then maybe someone could shed some light on the steel tariffs and USMCA. And what specifically changed in the USMCA.

Exactly

#4 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.27.19 at 11:35 am

“Here’s hoping”.
An honest Financial Advisor.
Refreshing.

#5 Trumpocalypse2019 on 04.27.19 at 11:46 am

The picture foretells the ominous reality we will face soon.

Trumpocalypse is coming fast.

PREPARE

#6 Alessio on 04.27.19 at 11:47 am

So market manipulation to make stocks and assets go up for a decade and market manipulation to save them from crashing in December. Yes, Thank You indeed Fed and uS Govt!

#7 Dogman01 on 04.27.19 at 11:51 am

Yesterday : #13 Stan Brooks on 04.26.19 at 5:10 pm

“In a country like Canada all it takes is proper planning and good infrastructure.
Build satellite cities with good train system, improve the density and you can have very cheap affordable living with brick houses around 350 k, condo apartments with little maintenance/European style at 200 k.
But then that requires decent politicians, the banks and oligopolies would be worth less and the gentlemen at the Empire club would be 50 % poorer.”
————————————————————-

Ask yourself how could we have gotten into this entirely predictable situation with our most lucrative foreign export (energy) being landlocked and having no pipeline to get it to market. The production levels could have been foreseen for decades and the pipeline capacity a known quantity. Does Canada have no strategic infrastructure plans?

It does feel like: get as much out of them as you can, keep things running minimally just so they can get to work and keep paying our rent.

One of the investment guys on BNN made a comment about BCE, buy it, hold it, forget it, give it to your kids. He is right, it is untouchable and part of an oligopoly that renders what is essentially a consumer tax.

With SNC we got a peak being the curtains on those entities to entrenched, protected and connected to be allowed to fail.

#8 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.27.19 at 11:52 am

Ryan.
The Baltic Dry index is improving, but still quite low historically.
What’s your read on it?

#9 Stealth on 04.27.19 at 12:34 pm

Ryan,

Seems that the concept of the global economy mentioned in your post links us, cdn, int developed and emerging markets together in general under the presupposed brand “equities”. Do you see all categories behaving the same or is there an expectation for you each?
For example deal with us and China may impact us and China based emerging markets portion , how does that relate to tsx?
In more technical words is there a need to tilt equity weightings towards a particular class?

Thank you.

#10 Andrewski on 04.27.19 at 12:49 pm

Buy. Hold. Rebalance. Repeat.

#11 baloney Sandwitch on 04.27.19 at 12:57 pm

Trump is running the USA like it did his business. Basically towards bankruptcy … and stiffing his creditors (china holds a lot of its bonds).
If the chinese have any brains they will start dumping their hoard of US treasuries, this will cause interest to rise, stocks will fall. Crash coming in 2021. Party on till then and throw more gas on the fire.

#12 Shawn on 04.27.19 at 12:58 pm

We are entering a new golden age for US economic prosperity. The Nasdaq is the modern day DJIA. Embrace it. the best days of the United States are ahead, not behind.

Canadians should be thankful that we live next door to the greatest country in the world and speak the same language.

#13 TurnerNation on 04.27.19 at 1:27 pm

What’s next…from the Trends Dept.
Toronto, and NY is being showcased as a Model UN post-national city, things are moving fast.

– All winter long people spent hours in the cold, placards in hand, protesting over and over again as “Vegans” in front of meat shops. How much would they be paid?

– A shadowy company took over 1/2 a grungy city block to set up “Vegandale”. I’m talking about $150,000 each month in triple-net rents or more. This is big money at work.

https://www.blogto.com/city/2018/08/parkdale-branding-vegandale-toronto/
With its eponymous festival of muck:
https://www.blogto.com/events/vegandale-2019-toronto/

– Everyone talking about new Netflix show on the horrors of meat production, singling out the worst. Netflix makes its own programming…the new thought leader, thought policer. They are gospel.

– This week NYC mayor (an elite billionaire) declared war on meat at city owned places, cutting back orders and telling us the world will end by 2030. Remember when we used to laugh at such nutters?

– 2030…wait…havnt’ we hear that before? A global UN Agenda so named, been in the plans for years? It’s as if…this is it

https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/post2015/transformingourworld

– The AOC stone age news was a test,a trial balloon. Based upon our reactions on social media they will be tweaking this rollout. Think: “We know he has WMD” type of co-ordinated global campaign. That one sure worked. They have millions of data points on us from our online activity, they know me better than me.

– In Toronto, Ontario Google “Smart cites” was given cart blanche in a take over. No vote, no competition.
Our elites beleive we are stupid sheep to be injected, force fed and our breeding controlled.
This Google Smart city appears a plan on China’s “Social score” control system.

– Globe and Mail headline today is on the dangers of “Far right” in Canada. Right…all those polite, tax paying people hanging out in rural Tim Hortons are what we should fear.

By the way as Gartho old us journalists do not write their headlines, editors do. I say why: A head-line is of such importance, it must “get into your head”. When you read the headlines…you read only what they want in your head, the spin. Are you spinning yet? Who owns your mind.

#14 Keith on 04.27.19 at 1:34 pm

I love how Conservative supporters are going mental over our federal deficits, as our debt to GDP ratio is actually falling while Trump’s trillion dollar deficit is growing the U.S. debt faster than it’s growing the GDP. There is serious leakage from trying to stimulate the economy with broadly based tax cuts, and the popularity of stock buybacks and dividend increases shows it.

The Liberal government deficits are not good as we are in peacetime and a time of economic growth, but an equivalent to the U.S. deficit would be 100 billion, even worse than Mulroney’s last deficit of 85 billion.

#15 jess on 04.27.19 at 1:42 pm

greatest country rlly? perhaps one should learn other languages

But Disney, the great-niece of Walt Disney, told the Guardian she found the company’s response “insulting”.

Disney, 59, made headlines after branding Iger’s near-$66m pay packet “insane”. In an interview with the Guardian, she was unrepentant, describing some of the Walt Disney Company’s financial pledges to employees as “neoliberal claptrap” and calling for Iger to renounce his extraordinary compensation.

“They say they pay more than the federal minimum wage. But they know [$15 an hour] is not a living wage in Anaheim,” Disney said, referring to the southern California city where Disneyland is located.

In 2017, the Guardian reported that some Disneyland workers were forced to live in their cars because of low pay. At that time the Orange county office of care coordination estimated the hourly wage needed to afford a median-priced, one-bedroom unit in Orange county last year was $25.46, while a 2018 study by the National Low Income Housing Coalition found that pay of $15 an hour wasn’t enough to rent a two-bedroom rental home in a majority of US states.

#16 Ryan Lewenza on 04.27.19 at 1:47 pm

Ponzius Pilatus “The Baltic Dry index is improving, but still quite low historically. What’s your read on it?”

That would be consistent with the positive trade talks between the US and China (ie improved relations and trade between the two largest economies). But I haven’t put much stock in that index in recent years as it hasn’t predicted or correlated well with the economy and stock market. – Ryan L

#17 Ryan Lewenza on 04.27.19 at 1:54 pm

Stealth “Seems that the concept of the global economy mentioned in your post links us, cdn, int developed and emerging markets together in general under the presupposed brand “equities”. Do you see all categories behaving the same or is there an expectation for you each?”

Yes we make calls on different geographies (US, Canada, International and EM) but this is more based on the economic outlook, earnings outlook, valuations, and technical trends of the different regions. Any improvement in US/China relations will be good broadly for the global economy and stock market but we wouldn’t make a call on these two regions just based on this trade deal. You could make the argument that a big trade deal for US/China would be negative for Canada (as China could by less Canadian goods) but these other factors (growth, earnings, PEs) are more important to our market calls. – Ryan L

#18 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.27.19 at 2:00 pm

@#1 Ponzie Plot
“Thars gold in them tanks….”
++++
Only if you drive a gas guzzler.
Electric cars need not apply.

#19 Ryan Lewenza on 04.27.19 at 2:04 pm

T “GDP in the states posted a blow out-oh my god things are awesome! 3.1%…and yet interest rates dropped. Is the Bond market dumb?”

Don’t get too excited about that number. Much of it came from inventory accumulation while “Final Sales to Private Domestic Demand” was weak at just 1.3%. We saw softness in consumer spending and business investment. Headline number was good but when you look under the hood not as much. – Ryan L

#20 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.27.19 at 2:07 pm

@#61 Doug in London
“When a lot of commenters here are bellyaching about how something has dropped in price, like stocks and equity ETFs last December.
++++

Hmmm. Lets see.
Ryan just commented ;
“the disastrous fourth quarter ………

In Q4/18 we saw the first 20% correction since the financial crisis with the global equity markets tumbling roughly 10% in October and December. With the weakness in the fourth quarter the S&P 500 and TSX returned -4.4% and -8.9%, respectively, in 2018.”

Bellyaching?

Hardly
Investors were legitimately concerned that the markets were headed south and were potentially going to continue doing so.
Asking questions as to whether it was prudent to move some assets out of the market isnt “bellyaching” …its being prudent.
Never hurts to question financial advice.
I watched people in 2008 , about to retire, end up postponing their retirement because their portfolios tanked…
The lesson learned?
Dont be too smug about the markets.

#21 AK on 04.27.19 at 2:31 pm

“And finally be a major win for President Trump. I believe if a deal is ratified that this could be the most significant achievement of Trump’s presidency, and he should be applauded for this.”
====================================

Wall Street and Corporate America are clearly behind President Trump.
Great to see that you are on the same page as well.

#22 Bdwy sktn on 04.27.19 at 2:33 pm

Signs of life in east van detached..

13xx Lakewood, old house nice Reno maybe 10 yrs back, small lot.

Ask 2.02
Sell 2.25
11 dom

Wtf??? This is peak pricing around here

Further it is right in line with current west side prices.

#23 AK on 04.27.19 at 2:36 pm

“Last spring economists were expecting the global economy to grow 3.7% this year and now they see the global economy growing 3.4%.”
=====================================

With the exception of the Dude from Gluskin Sheff, who has been calling for a recession, again.

#24 Lost...but not leased on 04.27.19 at 2:56 pm

#14 jess

Re Disney

Disney was once an excellent employer with good wages and benefits.

Recall a few years back Disney pink slipped many of their IT workers.

For those Deep State researchers..Disney was simply a product of CIA, Stanford Research Institute, etc. The agenda was to create “American Culture”…as even in ancient times philosophers realized the power of culture.

Disney is now a massive multinational multimedia conglomerate whereby even the most remote areas on Earth know about Mickey Mouse.

PS….I know their will be some guffaws from some GF posters….but they tend to be the ones that didn’t/won’t do their homework.

#25 Smoking Man on 04.27.19 at 3:29 pm

Trumponomics.

Deregulation and tax cuts are the migic wand that Obama never used.

Markets to moon so long as Trump is in the White House.

#26 Dogman01 on 04.27.19 at 3:41 pm

#10 baloney Sandwitch on 04.27.19 at 12:57 pm

“If the chinese have any brains they will start dumping their hoard of US treasuries, this will cause interest to rise, stocks will fall.”

———————————————————

If I was Communist Party Chairman I would be directing my bankers to slowly sell US Treasuries and simply buy up US companies. Over a 10 year period I would dominate both world manufacturing and most global corporations. Realizing the proper historical place in the world and ending the last few centuries of humiliation – Mission accomplished

#27 NoName on 04.27.19 at 3:49 pm

Interesting read

https://neilkakkar.com/Psychology-of-Human-Misjudgment.html

#28 NoName on 04.27.19 at 4:48 pm

Winter Has Come – From the album “Music of Game of Thrones” – LIVE

performed by The City of Prague Philharmonic Orchestra
Recorded live January 28th 2017
Conducted by Evan Jolly

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=50&v=XWK3iosUOV4

#29 Shawn Allen on 04.27.19 at 5:03 pm

The U.S. Reaps What it Sows

Dogman01 at 25 said:

If I was Communist Party Chairman I would be directing my bankers to slowly sell US Treasuries and simply buy up US companies.

************************************
Agreed, and Warren Buffett has explained that when America runs a huge trade deficit, it effectively force feeds U.S. dollars to the world and so it should not complain when those dollars came back to buy up U.S. assets.

#30 El Presidente on 04.27.19 at 5:11 pm

6 more years baby

#31 Sam on 04.27.19 at 5:21 pm

As always enjoy reading your thoughts !

A few questions for ya :
– any change /tweaking in asset allocation . Any sectors you love mid-range
– any hope left for Cdn prefereds with current rate forecasts

Try the Ping G400 max driver , so so awesome!!

#32 Stan Brooks on 04.27.19 at 5:30 pm

https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/imf-says-canadian-economy-to-grow-at-1-5-per-cent-lower-than-previous-forecast-1.4372147

The world grows by 3.3 % yearly, we just revised down our ‘growth’ to 1.5 %.

https://marketsanity.com/canadians-maxed-out-on-debt-danielle-park/

#33 acdel on 04.27.19 at 5:58 pm

Inspirational blog today!

I understand that one has to rely on what the Chinese are releasing as there G.D.P. numbers.

Being in the position that you are in Ryan and I extend that out to anyone out there that understands the rhetoric and numbers being forward to us by that Country to the rest of the world. So much hinges on that.

What would you or any out there estimate what there true economy is actually performing at? Thanks.

Saturday night is hockey night! :)

#34 Stan Brooks on 04.27.19 at 6:02 pm

#13 Keith on 04.27.19 at 1:34 pm
I love how Conservative supporters are going mental over our federal deficits, as our debt to GDP ratio is actually falling while Trump’s trillion dollar deficit is growing the U.S. debt faster than it’s growing the GDP. There is serious leakage from trying to stimulate the economy with broadly based tax cuts, and the popularity of stock buybacks and dividend increases shows it.

The Liberal government deficits are not good as we are in peacetime and a time of economic growth, but an equivalent to the U.S. deficit would be 100 billion, even worse than Mulroney’s last deficit of 85 billion.

We have deficits at all levels around 20 billions + yearly, soon provincial debts will make it 30 + we have extra 100 billion + in excessive PRIVATE DEBT lending due to cheap rates and government guarantees.

US Private debt has shrunk due to their deleverage, so they can afford to run public deficit.

Our private debt is sky high and we keep on piling more, i.e. we are not deleveraging yet.

Just wait until we do and then watch the show.

Ah, and we steal around 80 billion + yearly from savers due to BoC suppressing interest rates from where they should be.

This can not go any longer.

#35 Stan Brooks on 04.27.19 at 6:07 pm

The real beauty is when banks who don’t need your money as they got it at zero rate from BoCl when they are not just satisfied with giving you zero rate on deposits, but start charging fees like 20-30 $ monthly (not transaction related!) on chequing account that has 5 digits amount in it.

That adds insult to injury, while the diminished CPP and OAS, roaring inflation of essentials are absolutely killing people on fixed income.

Enjoy sheeple.

#36 Stan Brooks on 04.27.19 at 6:19 pm

#6 Dogman01 on 04.27.19 at 11:51 am

Correct, these entity are the owners, they own the infrastructure, the sheeple and even its offsprings and its labour for generations ahead through the debt – public and private and the de-facto legalized ‘forever’ oligopolies.

The sheeple is given cheapo corn-flake houses and glass condos at astronomical prices trhough debt and crappy GMO food and then cut on services.

Let’s see for how much more can the deadbeat sheeple be further squeeezed, skinned and milked.

#37 PeterfromCalgary on 04.27.19 at 6:26 pm

It was nice of Mr. Market to correct just around the time I could put another $6000 in my TFSA.

Thanks Mr. Market. I think Garth recommended I do that as well so thanks Garth to.

#38 AK on 04.27.19 at 6:42 pm

#29 El Presidente on 04.27.19 at 5:11 pm
“6 more years baby”
====================================

Then 8 years of Donald Trump Jr.

The Democrats will still be tied up with the Russia garbage and issuing subpoenas for their tax returns.

#39 Ryan Lewenza on 04.27.19 at 6:55 pm

Sam “A few questions for ya :
– any change /tweaking in asset allocation . Any sectors you love mid-range
– any hope left for Cdn prefereds with current rate forecasts”

No major changes to our asset allocation right now. If anything we would increase US weight with Mueller report behind us. We are rebalancing portfolios right now trimming equities and getting back to our 60% equity weight. On prefs despite BoC backing away from rate hikes we still see prefs recovering later this year as pref yields are attractive to bond yields. But generally stay the course. And I bought the Calloway Epic driver. That’s the one! – Ryan L

#40 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.27.19 at 6:59 pm

@#27 NoName

One youtube video deserves another

Sometimes the swimmer is in charge, sometimes the whale……

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bTIcQMwYC1o

#41 Gravy Train on 04.27.19 at 8:19 pm

#34 Stan Brooks on 04.27.19 at 6:07 pm
“The real beauty is when banks […] start charging fees like [$20 to $30] monthly (not transaction related!) on [a] chequing account that has [a 5-digit] amount in it.” Which banks charge such fees? Why wouldn’t you transfer excess cash balances to a savings or investment account?

“That adds insult to injury, while the diminished CPP and OAS, roaring inflation of essentials are absolutely killing people on fixed income. Enjoy sheeple.”
Have you considered:
• dining out at restaurants just once a week (rather than every day)?
• reading sales flyers and clipping coupons when shopping for groceries?
• taking a thermos of coffee to work every day (rather than buying a specialty latte or two)?
• going to the library to borrow books, movies and musical instruments (rather than buying)?
• engaging insurance and mortgage brokers to get the best rates?
• engaging a tax accountant to assist you with tax planning?
• taking public transportation or carpooling (rather than buying a top-of-the-line vehicle and trading it in every second year)?
• using timers for lighting and space heaters?
• putting up solar panels on the roof?
• carrying out one or more of IHCTD9’s cost- and tax-saving tips?
:)

#42 Ace Goodheart on 04.27.19 at 8:36 pm

So T2 decided to shut down a sandbagging pick up site in Ottawa, so that he could have a video taken of himself and his family filling bags as part of the flood fighting efforts.

Listen to this guy go up and down the PM. Absolutely priceless:

https://globalnews.ca/video/5211322/volunteer-berates-trudeau-for-delaying-him-from-filling-sandbags

Apparently this guy waited behind security barricades for an hour, with his pick up truck, while T2 was doing his little promotional video.

#43 windsor guy on 04.27.19 at 8:59 pm

Hi Ryan, with it looking now like interest rates will be on hold for the next while, should we be looking at holding longer term government bond etfs, or continue to keep our government bonds in short term etfs ?

#44 SoggyShorts on 04.27.19 at 9:29 pm

#34 Stan Brooks on 04.27.19 at 6:07 pm
The real beauty is when banks who don’t need your money as they got it at zero rate from BoCl when they are not just satisfied with giving you zero rate on deposits, but start charging fees like 20-30 $ monthly (not transaction related!) on chequing account that has 5 digits amount in it.
**************************
Link please to a bank that charges such fees without reimbursing them 100% right back with a 5 digit balance.
TD’s gives unlimited transactions for $29 and refunds you the $29 if you have $5,000 with them.

https://www.td.com/ca/en/personal-banking/products/bank-accounts/chequing-accounts/all-inclusive-banking-plan/

smells like another “Stan Fact”

#45 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.27.19 at 9:40 pm

@#41 Ace Goodheart

Classic.
Its about time.
I cringe every time I see a politician “show up” at a disaster site to “ask questions” or “help”.
A total waste of resources.

Stay out of the way and let the emergency services …DO…THEIR….JOBS…

Its rare in an election year that “Joe Public” got that close to Trudeau to berate him in front of the cameras…
Perhaps the security detail were busy stuffing 80lb sacks of sand?
Where’s a big blocking Butts when you need one?

I dont think it will happen again unless Trudeau’s handlers are really that inept.

Come to think of it…..I haven’t seen her in a while.
Is Christy Clark slithering around Ottawa ?

#46 Glengarry Girl on 04.27.19 at 10:34 pm

I have to say, I’m pretty disgusted by the Cheerleading of Trumps recklessness. This will not end well, enjoy your high, we are all going to pay for it sooner or later.

#47 Doug in Londinium on 04.27.19 at 10:41 pm

@Ponzius Pilatus, first
So I should sell the gas in my tank?
————————————————-
Sure, why not? With the proceeds you could buy some new bicycle tires to get lots of mileage. As for me, hardly a day goes by I don’t hear about these labour shortages that the “experts” say will only get worse in the coming years. The last times I heard that was in 1988-89, 1999-2000, and 2006-07. This time I read between the lines and figure it’s time to cash in some of those equities I bought when they were on sale and get more exposure to fixed income investments. Wow, a more diverse portfolio, now where have we heard that idea?

#48 espressobob on 04.27.19 at 10:59 pm

Investing is an unknown quantity at the best of times. Professional analysts are often divided most of the time anyways and tend to get sideswiped by unforeseen events.

Best keep things diversified and balanced long haul.

As far as a golf driver goes, It’s way more fun to use one that’s non conforming.

#49 Ustabe on 04.27.19 at 11:25 pm

#44 crowdedelevatorfartz

#41 Ace Goodheart

A good lawyer never asks a question he doesn’t already know the answer to.

Additionally a good anti-Trudeau poster maybe shouldn’t jump to conclusions just because it makes one feel good.

With the RCMP, the PMO and the organizers all now saying that there was no stoppage of filling folks vehicles with sandbags and that, in fact, the PM actually did work for a time filling said sandbags, making Sandbag Sam sound like he maybe might have exaggerated a wee bit to make things fit his narrative.

Perhaps you could cast your critical eye toward Doug Ford, the man who has just recently cut flood mitigation funding and who, earlier, actually did shut things down when he was there for his photo op.

Scheer, of course, was busy taking secret meetings with Koch brothers operatives and some US oil lobbyists. He was too busy getting his marching orders from far right US interests to comment favorably on Toyota announcing that two models of the Lexus are to be built in Ontario and that Canada had a 3+ billion dollar surplus the first 11 months of the fiscal year.

I mean we all are after fair and balanced, right?

#50 M-F on 04.27.19 at 11:27 pm

Not sure you should list Trump’s tax cuts as a good thing when they have brought the US annual deficits of over 1 trillion dollars, again.

Last time the US had a trillion dollar deficit everything was crashing and it was far more understandable – but now unemployment is near record lows, and the US still has a 1 trillion deficit in the ‘good times’. If there is another crash, what, will we see a 2 trillion dollar deficit?

#51 DON on 04.27.19 at 11:38 pm

@ crowdedelevatorfartz

Stone Statues of people popping up in Ottawa?

#52 Keith on 04.27.19 at 11:38 pm

@#33 Stan Brooks

“This can not go any longer.”

Japan’s debt to GDP ratio is 250%. Do you think any government is going to dish out the harsh medicine. Haven’t seen that since the Chretien Martin Liberals. Liberals.

The easy option is to kick the can down the road. Like governments around the world. This can go much much much longer, and it will.

#53 Lost...but not leased on 04.27.19 at 11:49 pm

#34 Stan Brooks…

I agree with the main gist of what you said…with “near zero” interest rates the banks are effectively saying they don’t want your deposits, they can access funds “cheaper” elsewhere”….(and thus blame the central bank)….they would much rather herd the masses into other investment options…

Not only that,…besides federal insurance..they have the legal right to confiscate you deposits aka ” Bail In”

..which seguays to a party recently interviewed who stated the obvious…that the central banks have created TRILLIONS in fiat currency..and invested heavily in the stock market..artificially driving up stock prices (and history has indicated numerous times HOW that ultimately ends up).

#54 Stan Brooks on 04.28.19 at 12:27 am

#43 SoggyShorts on 04.27.19 at 9:29 pm
#34 Stan Brooks on 04.27.19 at 6:07 pm
The real beauty is when banks who don’t need your money as they got it at zero rate from BoCl when they are not just satisfied with giving you zero rate on deposits, but start charging fees like 20-30 $ monthly (not transaction related!) on chequing account that has 5 digits amount in it.
**************************
Link please to a bank that charges such fees without reimbursing them 100% right back with a 5 digit balance.
TD’s gives unlimited transactions for $29 and refunds you the $29 if you have $5,000 with them.

https://www.td.com/ca/en/personal-banking/products/bank-accounts/chequing-accounts/all-inclusive-banking-plan/

smells like another “Stan Fact”

Did you read the fine print?

Note the confusing lingo/mix of monthly and daily balance:

You pay no monthly fee if you have the minimum monthly balance indicated or more in your account at the end of each day in the month.

Now monthly balance is translated from the end of the month or average for the month to minimum closing amount for every day of the month.

If you have 20 k with them and on only one day of the month $ 4999 they charge you $ 29 in monthly fees.

Completely proves my point.
Thank you.

#55 Stan Brooks on 04.28.19 at 12:38 am

#40 Gravy Train on 04.27.19 at 8:19 pm

There was an example above with some bank charging $ 29 in monthly fees for a chequing account with less than 5 k closing balance for at least one day of the month.

That makes $ 348 per year, around 7 % annually on 5 k invested.

If you believe that anyone on CPP and OAS can afford any of the activities on your list that you recommend limiting (dining ever day at a restaurant and top of the line vehicle being exceptionally funny), you live in a dream land, not in the real world.

Tax planning could be dangerous thing specially when considered ‘aggressive’ (of course, subject to interpretations as there is no law that specifies what aggressive tax planning is, all ‘rules’ talk about ‘reasonableness’).

#56 NoName on 04.28.19 at 12:41 am

Intersting read

https://hardware.slashdot.org/story/19/04/27/0455256/amazons-algorithm-automatically-fires-inefficient-warehouse-workers

@fartz

At some point it in my life i was NZ or CDN, CDN won, amout of taxes i pay cdn better celebrate every may.

I met only total 1 person from NZ, she was my daughtr judo coach/sensei, if its to judge nz by her they score much better than us Canadians.

i think she from here.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/destinations/nz/109535313/gisborne-new-zealands-most-underrated-holiday-spot

#57 Casey on 04.28.19 at 12:50 am

I believe that for the S&P 500 and TSX to break above the all-time highs and advance further this year, fundamentals (e.g., corporate earnings) need to come through.
————-
Wow, this guy is good.

#58 Fire Fighter on 04.28.19 at 1:43 am

I have come to the conclusion now that more evidence is in that the Notre Dame fire was likely arson. They had only 13 years ago replaced all the wiring to modern standards so all a short would have done is blown a fuse. They had modern fire detection equipment throughout. They had 2 full time 24/7 security/fire guards on staff to get the fire department there as soon as a fire was detected. In short, that building was protected from fire as much as any wood structure could be.

That said, it’s important not to jump to conclusions about who started the fire even if it was arson (also not yet proven). The church has many enemies and has committed many sins. It could have been an abused alter boy.

#59 BS on 04.28.19 at 2:06 am

“I don’t know who to thank first – the Federal Reserve or President Trump?”

First, you should thank Trump for creating this boom. Then you should thank the Federal Reserve for listening to Trump. Too bad for many the Fed didn’t listen to Trump 6 months earlier. We could have avoided the December correction altogether. Although For those of us that took advantage of the December correction to load up on equities I can actually thank the Fed for not listening to Trump sooner.

I recall listening to financial adviser in late February who said they had lots client cash on the sidelines waiting to retest the December lows. Another had shorted the market. We are now up another 10% since then. Sucks to be a market timer. Buy and hold with some extra buying on the dips seems to be bullet proof.

#60 Russ on 04.28.19 at 2:11 am

PeterfromCalgary on 04.27.19 at 6:26 pm

It was nice of Mr. Market to correct just around the time I could put another $6000 in my TFSA.

Thanks Mr. Market. I think Garth recommended I do that as well so thanks Garth to.
========================

Good news for you at the beginning of the year , eh Peter.

Too bad about now. Sorry that it sucks to get a foot of snow after Easter.

For crying out loud! Is that even legal these days? What about the promise of global warming?

It’s a good thing you guys know how to drive in it, at least there is no road carnage to worry about.

Cheers, R

#61 BS on 04.28.19 at 2:20 am

So T2 decided to shut down a sandbagging pick up site in Ottawa, so that he could have a video taken of himself and his family filling bags as part of the flood fighting efforts.

Listen to this guy go up and down the PM. Absolutely priceless:

The guy was spot on and I am glad he called out T2, but I blame the media for this political theater. Other than this circumstance where a regular volunteer called out this despicable photo op, the media are the ones that fawn over this kind of stuff. Just more fake news. If a leader wants to help, they lead. Filling sand bags with your kids surrounded by security is so ridiculous the media should call it out without a regular citizen having to do it. Like that is the best way to manage resources to help.

#62 Andrew on 04.28.19 at 6:55 am

However, as the global economy began to slow late last year and market volatility increased, the Fed then backed away from future rate hikes stating they had become “data dependent”.

Lol @ the hubris in this sentence. I for one welcome the separation of money and state. Buy bitcoin.

#63 David Hawke on 04.28.19 at 8:05 am

Giving tRump credit for anything is disgusting and short-sighted!

#64 Remembrancer on 04.28.19 at 8:25 am

#57 Fire Fighter on 04.28.19 at 1:43 am
In short, that building was protected from fire as much as any wood structure could be.
———————
Any sprinklers? Heat detectors? Nice trojan for sneaking in your rhetoric though…

#65 Remembrancer on 04.28.19 at 8:32 am

#54 Stan Brooks on 04.28.19 at 12:38 am
#40 Gravy Train on 04.27.19 at 8:19 pm
—–
Hate to be agreeing with Stan but he’s right on about the $5000 no-fee floor at the Green Armchair guys…

#66 Stan Brooks on 04.28.19 at 8:43 am

#51 Keith on 04.27.19 at 11:38 pm
@#33 Stan Brooks

“This can not go any longer.”

Japan’s debt to GDP ratio is 250%. Do you think any government is going to dish out the harsh medicine. Haven’t seen that since the Chretien Martin Liberals. Liberals.

The easy option is to kick the can down the road. Like governments around the world. This can go much much much longer, and it will.

Ok, I will restate it: This cannot go for any longer without people going broke.

Plain numbers are misleading as Japan has:
– huge productivity and trade surplus in the last 3 decades
– huge savings
– good government and corporate pensions
– closed society with no migration out
– lack of culture of outsourcing

Plus their public debt was built in the process of deleveraging when the world was not that open as today.

To translate their policy into our reality would mean:

– continuing inflation of essentials – food, rents, to the tune of 8-10 % +. Official CPI at sub 2 %. For 2 + more decades
– loonie at .45 – .55 handle
– 10 bucks + cauliflower
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/21/business/dealbook/in-canada-5-cauliflowers-cost-more-than-a-barrel-of-oil.html
– no indexing of income due to downward pressure on wages.

The most scary part is that we have not started our deleveraging yet, we keep on piling debt at record pace at all levels with rates close to zero and I highly doubt that any deleverage is even remotely possible without the ‘economy’ rolling over.

A reminder that we have no savings, crappy pensions and outsourcing culture.

We have no sustainable cities as Europe, are not an economy powerhouse and depend on the grocery store for everything.

Currency crisis in an environment of stagnant wages is the most likely outcome in my mind with all the consequences.

Like Turkey at the moment but with much worse weather.

#67 Gravy Train on 04.28.19 at 8:50 am

#64 Remembrancer on 04.28.19 at 8:32 am
“Hate to be agreeing with Stan but he’s right on about the $5000 no-fee floor at the Green Armchair guys….” I was just asking questions, not necessarily holding a position. :)

#68 Remembrancer on 04.28.19 at 8:55 am

#48 Ustabe on 04.27.19 at 11:25 pm
#44 crowdedelevatorfartz
#41 Ace Goodheart
———————————-
Regardless of political affiliation, and they all do it, anyone who has been involved in one of these photo ops would know that between the advance team, set piece posing for the cameras and making room for the politico, press and security entourage its a distraction to say the least… that said, an atta boy back slap at the right time when its cold, dark and 18 hours in does sometimes work, but most of the time its a PITA…

That said, Sandbag Sam was likely posturing for the cameras too…

#69 Mike on 04.28.19 at 8:58 am

Doug,

Write this down:

Dow top in June
NASDAQ top in May
TSX top in August

From those points, all 3 will decline into January 2020 at which point they will turn and will break new highs in 2020.

Write this down.

#70 NoName on 04.28.19 at 9:14 am

Something to learn from. Maybe mandatory drinking can save us all…

Inhabitants of Peru’s Wari empire may not have schmoozed with their leaders over a pint. But new research, published in Sustainability, indicates that making and drinking chicha, an indigenous brew, contributed to the vast pre-Columbian empire’s impressive political and cultural cohesion.

https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/alcohol-wari-empire

At least our leader you got this part right.

According to one “ten day world tour” flight on November 9-19, Trudeau’s flight spent $142,786 on food and $961.30 on alcohol. The drink tab included 53 bottles of wine and 53 cans of beer.

In another instance, during Trudeau’s controversial G20 trip to Argentina, the flight rang up $103,393.57 on a food bill and $923.00 for 57 bottles of wine and 38 cans of beer.

https://www.thepostmillennial.com/airborne-debauchery-trudeau-spends-nearly-400k-on-inflight-meals-and-alcohol/

#71 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.28.19 at 9:34 am

@#48 Ustabe workin for the PMO

“With the RCMP, the PMO and the organizers all now saying that there was no stoppage of filling folks vehicles with sandbags and that, in fact, the PM actually did work for a time filling said sandbags…”

++++

Mr Butts.
Good to know you read Garth’s blog.
How’s retirement?

#72 dharma bum on 04.28.19 at 9:42 am

#44 crowdedelevatorfartz

Its rare in an election year that “Joe Public” got that close to Trudeau to berate him in front of the cameras…
Perhaps the security detail were busy stuffing 80lb sacks of sand?
——————————————————————–

You are so right!
It really is actually an astounding security breach.

Not only is the PM a total hack, his security detail is so ridiculously amateurish that whomever is in charge of them should be terminated immediately (…or not).

Can you imagine some dude emerging out of nowhere and just wandering up to within arms length of the POTUS?

That guy would be face down, cuffed, and immediately incarcerated and questioned. The Secret Service would have a lotta ‘splainin’ to do as well.

I wonder if the Canadian Security hacks “protecting” the PM realize how inept they are, and how potentially life threatening that encounter could have been.

I guess they factor in the ever-harmless good nature and politeness of even the most ill intentioned disgruntled Canadian.

Man, that guy should’ve used that unique opportunity to really tear a strip off of Mr. Socks. He barely even raised his voice. Now, THAT’s restraint.

#73 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.28.19 at 9:56 am

@#57 Fire Fighter
“replaced all the wiring to modern standards so all a short would have done is blown a fuse…”
++++
They still use fuses on low voltage fire alarm wiring?
Here in Canada it would have tripped a breaker…and even if it tripped a breaker for the smoke detectors it would have set the main fire alarm off.
There was no alarm. Witnesses on the street called it in.

Apparently initial findings believe it was an electrical short from something powered ( it was reported by the company doing the work , if you can believe them, ALL power cords for the renovations were unplugged at the end of the shift and the workers had left almost an hour before the fire started.)
Personally, I’m thinking either a tossed cigarette butt or oily rags and spontaneous combustion.
But that’s heresay.
Personel working there also said IF the fire had triggered an alarm it would take the security guard ( in fit condition) almost 5 minutes to get to the area where the fire was first seen and verify it was an actual fire. ( the other guard must stay at the fire panel and wait for the fire dept.)
So now we have a real, verifiable fire that’s at least 5 minutes old burning in an 800 year old , tall, narrow, wooden structure.
Assume Security now calls it in….
The fire dept has been called, ….at least another 5 minutes before they arrive?
Then another 5 minutes to unload, grab gear, assess, etc..
Then another 5 minutes for the fire fighters to get to the fire.
20 minutes of burning, 800 year old, dry wood, stacked like a chimney…..

As for the rest of your conspiracy theory….
I hear marijuana smoke makes people paranoid.
Been to any burning grow ops lately?

Lets wait for the real report ,not endless internet conspiracy theories.

#74 Ryan Lewenza on 04.28.19 at 10:41 am

windsor guy “Hi Ryan, with it looking now like interest rates will be on hold for the next while, should we be looking at holding longer term government bond etfs, or continue to keep our government bonds in short term etfs ?”

Keep your bonds short duration. Longer term bond yields have already declined following the BoC backing away from rate hikes leaving them near levels of short term bond yields. So you’re not getting compensated for investing in long-term bonds and if rates do rise then you have capital losses from the declining bond prices. We would have to fall into recession for you to make any money in long-term bonds right now which we don’t see for the next year. – Ryan L

#75 Ryan Lewenza on 04.28.19 at 10:51 am

M-F “Not sure you should list Trump’s tax cuts as a good thing when they have brought the US annual deficits of over 1 trillion dollars, again.”

Yes I agree with this. I’m going to write a blog post on this soon. I supported corporate tax cuts since the US at 35% (effective rate was lower but still quite high) was above the levels of other major developed countries. In a global world the US has to be competitive or they lose businesses to lower tax countries. I would have lowered the tax rate but not as much as they ended up doing since now they have the runaway deficits. They were too aggressive on the tax cut. But markets do like it, which is my focus. – Ryan L

#76 El presidente on 04.28.19 at 10:59 am

No collusion…… Putin’s got nothing….

https://i.redd.it/fjjzg4qz7baz.jpg

#77 Ryan Lewenza on 04.28.19 at 11:03 am

David Hawke “Giving tRump credit for anything is disgusting and short-sighted!”

I am not a Trump fan but I’m not so partisan that I can’t recognize when he does something good. China has been taking advantage of the US for years and he finally stood up to them to address some critical issues (large trading deficits, stealing of intellectual property, getting China to open up their markets/economy). Obama and his administration tried and failed to accomplish this. This is why I think he should be applauded for this if successful. But to your point he’s also done some terrible stuff. – Ryan L

#78 Kreditanstalt on 04.28.19 at 11:10 am

YAY! cheap money

Isn’t an “economy” utterly smitten by central bank counterfeiting WONDERFUL?

#79 Ace Goodheart on 04.28.19 at 11:17 am

RE: #71 dharma bum on 04.28.19 at 9:42 am

“Man, that guy should’ve used that unique opportunity to really tear a strip off of Mr. Socks. He barely even raised his voice. Now, THAT’s restraint.”

That’s Canada. While people’s houses are flooding, and every minute counts, a concerned member of the volunteer sandbagging team politely, and with restraint, asks the Prime Minister of Canada, whose security detail has shut down the sandbagging site so he can pose for a photo op (the picture later appeared in the Globe, among other newspapers), to please move his security barricades so that people’s houses can be saved.

Anywhere else in the world, this would have degenerated into a riot. In Canada, we don’t do riots. We are polite, restrained, and we have intelligent, informed discussion: T2 (during the confrontation) “you’ve had your say, now let me speak” – and the angry dude then stops talking, allows the PM to hold him by the shoulder, and actually listens to him.

In other news, it has been revealed that the developing nation of China, which requires special trade concessions and one way trading arrangements (goods can leave, but not enter), has been determined to be now fully developed, and capable of trading on an equal footing without special treatment.

A high level visitor to the city of Beijing remarked, after this decision was reached “these dudes are not poor, this is the City of the Gods, there is more money here than in all of the USA combined, no way this country is developing, these guys have made it, like 1000%, you should see the trains here, and the buildings…..unbelievable”.

#80 NoName on 04.28.19 at 11:30 am

#72 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.28.19 at 9:56 am
@#57 Fire Fighter
“replaced all the wiring to modern standards so all a short would have done is blown a fuse…”
++++
They still use fuses on low voltage fire alarm wiring?
Here in Canada it would have tripped a breaker…and even if it tripped a breaker for the smoke detectors it would have set the main fire alarm off.

Breaker would never trip here in Canada. Nat. Elekchiken code rule 32-108.

Years ago o did few FA systems cheap daizy chain mircom and adressable edwards and some other smaller fa system, i can tell you that breaker for fa (at least here in Ontario is LOCKED in on position, so it can not trip.

I do remember this one time, ok few times using wifes nail polish and painting breakers red so they comply with the code.


Rule 32-108 specifies that the fire alarm system power supply, except for included additional control units or transponders, be on a separate circuit and that the overcurrent devices and disconnecting means be permanently identified as a fire alarm system, be coloured red, and lockable in the on position.

#81 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.28.19 at 11:32 am

#69 NoName on 04.28.19 at 9:14 am
Something to learn from. Maybe mandatory drinking can save us all…

Inhabitants of Peru’s Wari empire may not have schmoozed with their leaders over a pint. But new research, published in Sustainability, indicates that making and drinking chicha, an indigenous brew, contributed to the vast pre-Columbian empire’s impressive political and cultural cohesion.

https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/alcohol-wari-empire

At least our leader you got this part right.

According to one “ten day world tour” flight on November 9-19, Trudeau’s flight spent $142,786 on food and $961.30 on alcohol. The drink tab included 53 bottles of wine and 53 cans of beer.
————
Let’s do the math.
960 total on alcohol. 53 bottles of wine, 53 cans of beer.
Using liquor store prices, a can of beer at 2 a pop would be around 100bucks.
That leaves 860 for 53 bottles of wine.
Roughly 17 dollars a bottle.
That’s after taxes.
That’s pretty cheap wine, if you ask me.
We should be grateful that our PM leads the way in curbing expenses.
BTW, to those who are envious.
This is a democratic country.
Everyone can run for PM.

#82 Remembrancer on 04.28.19 at 11:34 am

#71 dharma bum on 04.28.19 at 9:42 am
#44 crowdedelevatorfartz

Real estate experts, macro economists and now close protection specialists abound on this blog.

He’s the Prime Minister of Canada, not the President of Turkey – besides check the Global News video out and notice the earnest young man in the wayfarers on the left with his head on a swivel and the brushcut guy with the Northface jacket with his back to the camera – both with those twisty wire ear pieces from central casting? Sand Bag Waiting Guy had already got his ass threat assessed as soon as he arrived…

#83 Dom Perignon on 04.28.19 at 11:40 am

The Post-Obama-UN Led- Climate Change Crazies led by Climate Carpet Baggers add George Soros Civilization Hating, Low Wage gutting, Windmill Kills Millions of Birds but Green Gore dont care, Mass Migration-Hate Harper – Trudeau the Running of at the Mouth Lickspittle era is slowly ending. The CBC Mass Hysteria is dying down incrementally.

The hundreds of Billions spent to enrage millions of sloth minded and the easily led just had another internationally coordinated ‘protest’ this past week. It must have been ‘no blue hair day’ because none of the heavy weights showed up to firebomb the Chevron Building. Trumps threats of cutting funding to universities who fail to allow free speech must have the far left all a quiver, with trendy Land Rover leases always an issue with well paid professors.

A sure sign the nut balls are climbing back in to the shadows. Trudeau has his ‘Resistance’ media, but where did they come up with that idea, David Axelrod, the American Democrat writing all Trudeaus PR? Gerry Butts can no longer call Canadians Nazi’s from the office next to the PMs but for sure hes still shadow boxing with Trudeaus affections, they thinks hate and climate are still campaign winners.

Obama comes next week in secret meetings with Trudeau’s greasy group and who knows what antiquated Tag Lines Trudeau will come out swing with? Probably the same but louder calls the Scheer is a Nazi, same as Trump.

Trudeau’s Toadies must have forgotten that Obama lost more seats for the Democrats than any other leader in history,. Lets hope he can do the same to Trudeaus gaggle of gluttons. Good luck to all you Canadians who just found out that Trudeau has been screaming about in the UN that are actually Nazis and White Supremacists by his definition when you thought you just wanted a normal life for your kids.

#84 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.28.19 at 11:41 am

#71 dharma bum on 04.28.19 at 9:42 am
#44 crowdedelevatorfartz

Its rare in an election year that “Joe Public” got that close to Trudeau to berate him in front of the cameras…
Perhaps the security detail were busy stuffing 80lb sacks of sand?
——————————————————————–

You are so right!
It really is actually an astounding security breach.

Not only is the PM a total hack, his security detail is so ridiculously amateurish that whomever is in charge of them should be terminated immediately (…or not).

Can you imagine some dude emerging out of nowhere and just wandering up to within arms length of the POTUS?

That guy would be face down, cuffed, and immediately incarcerated and questioned. The Secret Service would have a lotta ‘splainin’ to do as well.

I wonder if the Canadian Security hacks “protecting” the PM realize how inept they are, and how potentially life threatening that encounter could have been.

I guess they factor in the ever-harmless good nature and politeness of even the most ill intentioned disgruntled Canadian.

Man, that guy should’ve used that unique opportunity to really tear a strip off of Mr. Socks. He barely even raised his voice. Now, THAT’s restraint.
————-
You used to be a gentle voice quoting Confucious
Now you’re suggesting that innocent bystanders be thrown in jail.
What happened

#85 Michael Bruce Chase on 04.28.19 at 11:41 am

hummm looks like the S/P didn’t do so well when Obama was running the show. Could this be simply a coincidence or something more sinister. Just askin’

#86 Sail Away on 04.28.19 at 11:41 am

#62 David Hawke on 04.28.19 at 8:05 am
Giving tRump credit for anything is disgusting and short-sighted

————————————————-

As is refusing to give credit where credit is due. Two sides to every coin.

#87 Sail Away on 04.28.19 at 11:51 am

#68 Mike on 04.28.19 at 8:58 am
Doug,

Write this down:

Dow top in June
NASDAQ top in May
TSX top in August

From those points, all 3 will decline into January 2020 at which point they will turn and will break new highs in 2020.

Write this down.

——————————————-

Hey Mike,

Why would anyone write down random guesses created by a random person on the Internet? You provide no background information or justification. What’s this based on? Astrology? Tea leaves? People have been incorrectly predicting events for all of history. You’re always welcome to test your own theories with hard cash, of course.

#88 Sandbagdude on 04.28.19 at 12:01 pm

We have a hero!

That was unfriendly and unneighbourly to criticize my blatant photo OP…

#89 Tony on 04.28.19 at 12:19 pm

Re: #10 baloney Sandwitch on 04.27.19 at 12:57 pm

Trump knows all about declaring bankruptcies, 4 times in the last 25 years.

#90 Shawn Allen on 04.28.19 at 12:21 pm

Bank Fees

I think banks do gouge on some fees. Certainly on foreign exchange where they usuall grab an extra 1.5 to 2.5% on all-electronic self-serve transactions.

But as far as expecting a no fee chequing / spending account…

Some people expect a bank to provide instant electronic spending access and to track everything to the penny and to safeguard your “cash” and to allow in-branch withdrawals and bank machine withdrawals for no fee? Unrealistic. Years ago your cash was worth a lot in terms of interest rates and they could handle your transactions for close to free in lieu of paying much interest. Today with low lending rates, deposits are not worth much in the way of interest so they need to charge fees.

Anyhow, those who think banks make too much money should try to own bank shares (even if indirectly as part of a balanced ETF portfolio)

#91 Tony on 04.28.19 at 12:23 pm

Re: #68 Mike on 04.28.19 at 8:58 am

The DOW will enter a bear market by October 2020 as the democrats will implode Trump’s fake stock market on him starting in September 2020. Ironic isn’t it Trump’s fake stock market will be his own linchpin come election time. What we saw was a test balloon from the democrats in 2018, 2020 will be the real thing.

#92 Lost...but not leased on 04.28.19 at 12:43 pm

Maps comparing the Canadian political landscape in 2015 and 2019 show a dramatic shift to the right. T-2 mania seems to be dying out..he needs a miracle..it will be fun to watch him try in desperation to turn this political Titanic around….this will be a good study of what tricks a dead duck party will attempt .

Re sandbag photo opp…ignoring T-2…very inefficient way to fill sandbags..much more efficient means available.

================================

Re Notre Dame…my call is it is very suspicious…likely arson.

#93 Shawn Allen on 04.28.19 at 12:47 pm

Stan Identifies Smart Banking

#54 Stan Brooks on 04.28.19 at 12:38 am said:

There was an example above with some bank charging $ 29 in monthly fees for a chequing account with less than 5 k closing balance for at least one day of the month.

That makes $ 348 per year, around 7 % annually on 5 k invested.

*********************************
So, effectively you can “earn” 7% by avoiding bank fees by keeping $5000 in your chequing/ spending account.

But you have to play be the rules, never ever dipping below $5000.

Banks need to retain deposits (yes even if created via loans) in their particular bank. Deposits fund loans. Any particular bank is in trouble if its deposits exit for other banks (recall Home Capital Spring 2017). A deposit that stays at a minimum $5000 is reliable and valuable to a bank more so than one that keeps flowing away. In this case the bank is giving a big incentive to keep that $5000 minimum.

Realistically, you can’t change bank fees but you can shop around and you can use the rules to your maximum advantage.

#94 Last of the Boomers on 04.28.19 at 1:04 pm

The big banks will negotiate on fees. I pay zero fees at one of the big banks on all six accounts. I negotiated it back in the early 2000’s when I had a mortgage with them. No fees for life on any of our accounts.

#95 Ryan Lewenza on 04.28.19 at 1:45 pm

Michael Bruce Chase “hummm looks like the S/P didn’t do so well when Obama was running the show. Could this be simply a coincidence or something more sinister. Just askin’”

Not the case at all. In fact, average rates of returns were higher under Obama then Trump. – Ryan L

#96 Mike on 04.28.19 at 2:09 pm

#86 Sail Away

Copy & paste my comments in an email. Watch & learn. Reinvest mid-Jan, 2020.

#97 Damifino on 04.28.19 at 2:27 pm

#93 Last of the Boomers

I’ve had the same no-fee account at BMO since 1985. The minimum balance is $500. They used to call it an “Investment-Checking” account. Now they call it nothing and pretend it never existed.

There was a time they’d pester me to change to another account with only a ‘small’ monthly fee. Then about 10 years ago they started to take $2.50 per month for something. I went to the bank and inquired about it. The person I talked with said it was an ‘administration fee’ although they said they’d never seen it appear in anyone else’s account.

As it turns out, it was just a few bucks they started taking because they thought they should. I got them to reverse it. I’ve never had an issue with BMO since.

#98 NoName on 04.28.19 at 2:50 pm

#80 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.28.19 at 11:32 am

Let’s do the math.
960 total on alcohol. 53 bottles of wine, 53 cans of beer.
Using liquor store prices, a can of beer at 2 a pop would be around 100bucks.
That leaves 860 for 53 bottles of wine.
Roughly 17 dollars a bottle.
That’s after taxes.
That’s pretty cheap wine, if you ask me.
We should be grateful that our PM leads the way in curbing expenses.
BTW, to those who are envious.
This is a democratic country.
Everyone can run for PM.

—-

You mist the point, did i not mentioned mandatory drinking, and article from atlas obscura stating that drinking created “impressive political and cultural cohesion.” for pre kristofor era america i guess central and south.

I dident complain about any spending on food and drinks, i just pointed out how he got that part right. Having people enjoy ther food with glass of wine or beer.

What point are you trying to make, that he is cheap or i dont l ow basic math? Perhaps in your world cheap NoName type beer and wine not good enough for emancipated and affluent?

And that part that everyone can run for pm is as silly as bolls hanging of trailer hitch.

NoName the man with no reading comprehension, but he manages…

#99 NoName on 04.28.19 at 3:05 pm

@ Ponzi

Just because they didn’t pay small fortune, it doesnt mean they were drinking crap beer and bad wine. My two favorite, and i consider those two on price side.

Here it is 17cad wine that i would not be ashamed to give, it can stand shoulder to shoulder with many more expensive wines from around the world.

https://www.lcbo.com/webapp/wcs/stores/servlet/en/lcbo/red-wine-14001/ravenswood-vintners-blend-old-vine-zinfandel-359257-1#.XMX2yRhE33A

And here is a beer, not on sale now but goes down to 2cad a can.

https://www.lcbo.com/webapp/wcs/stores/servlet/en/lcbo/maibock-16023072131/dab-maibock-346247-1#.XMX3bhhE33A

#100 Doug in Londinium on 04.28.19 at 10:48 pm

@Mike, post #69:
I’ll keep it in mind, but also I’ll keep in mind 2 ideas that pertain to many things including investing. The first is some wise person who many years ago said: Predictions are always difficult, but especially when they are of the future. The second is another saying namely: There are people who don’t know what’s going to happen, and then there are those who don’t know that they don’t know what will happen. I’ll just relax, put my feet up, and put the diversified portfolio on autopilot unless something like a correction happens.

#101 Gravy Train on 04.30.19 at 7:00 am

#100 Doug in Londinium on 04.28.19 at 10:48 pm
“There are people who don’t know what’s going to happen, and then there are those who don’t know that they don’t know what will happen.” Here’s how I remember the quote:
“There are the few who make things happen, the many more who watch things happen, and the overwhelming majority who have no notion of what happens.” — Nicholas Murray Butler