Laying an egg

Easter. Woo-hoo. Bunnies. Crocci. Chicks. Grass. Eggs. And, of course, house-horny moisters. Millions of them. Now in their early twenties to mid-thirties, Millennials make up almost a third of the entire population – 10.1 million of the little peckers. As the Boomers turn into wrinklies, enter their Thirsty Underwear Years and make funeral homes happy, the Mills are taking over. One month at a time.

But here’s the thing. That generation has a serious case of adultus interruptus. Fully 35% of Millennials still live with their parents – something unseen since the country was an agrarian backwater. A mere 16% are married (or whatever) with established households. Two-thirds of this cohort own no property.

Of course real estate for the moisters is not what it was for their parents. Mortgage rates may be near historic lows, but house prices border on record highs. Meanwhile linear careers have given way to a gig economy; excessive and costly levels of education are now the norm; the 2008-9 crash begat a generation terrified of risk; helicopter parents created cloistered, clingy kids; and millions of Mills have elevated expectations crashing up against financial reality.

So a new bank survey states the obvious. Over 80% of this group aspire to be homeowners. To achieve that they’re willing to sacrifice as no other generation before ever has… six in ten say they’ll cut back on $5 specialty coffees, 56% report they will try to curtail shopping and half will pay the ultimate price and reduce entertainment spending. Smart phones, tats, nose hardware and weed are not included. There are limits, after all.

Now the interesting point is while a big chunk of the Mills want downtown, urban living, two-thirds say they’d be willing to head to the suburbs, if they must, in order to get an affordable property with more space, in a kid-friendly hood. In other words they’re turning into their parents and (like trout) returning to the same place to spawn. But 73% say they’re unwilling to commute in order to own a place of their own.

Big change here from the Boomers, who understood there’s no replacement for displacement and a man can easily be judged by his fuel consumption. The moisters, in contrast, have given the world Uber, Lyft. ZipCar, rental scooters and all those damn bike lanes. The sharing, collaborative economy so in vogue these days is antithetic to cul-de-sacs, regional shopping malls, arterial roads, grassy backyards and four-bedders with double-car garages. But this moment was destined to come. And now it’s spring, 2019. Big urges.

This brings us back to the B20 stress test, which is the main obstacle standing between the 30-year-old MLS virgins and the real estate they lust for. By requiring new buyers to qualify for a mortgage at 5.4% when they can borrow at 2.8%, the test has reduced credit by a fifth, kicked about 100,000 people to the curb, toppled sales numbers and helped reduce prices across the country by about 5%. In some places, for some types of houses, the decline is closer to 20%. But those are homes few can afford.

In fact by dropping the amount most people can borrow, the test increased competition for cheaper real estate. The typical garden shed-sized downtown Toronto condo now costs over $554,000, up about 8% in the last year – at the same time detached house values have fallen. The test also pushed a lot of buyers into the voracious arms of subprime lenders, happy to make bets on higher-risk buyers who end up paying twice or three times the rate available at the banks. This, CIBC concluded a few days ago, is a big deal. When borrowers go to alt lenders because the banks won’t give them money they slip out of the insured mortgage world. So when the next recession comes along there could be a whack more personal failures. That’s how real estate crashes start.

It’s worth noting that the alt lenders now constitute the fastest-growing portion of the entire mortgage market. Four years ago these guys had about 5% of the business. Today it’s tripled. In addition, real estate-drenched credit unions have moved in to sop up a lot of business the banks rejected because clients failed the test.

“For this reason,” writes veteran mortgage broker Rob McLister, “some are calling on policy-makers to regulate the entire mortgage market. While this seems appealing on the surface, it could drastically limit liquidity and leave tens of thousands of borrowers with no viable lending options. Private lender red tape could result in a surge of defaults and bankruptcies, as many borrowers are left with no “lenders of last resort” to turn to. Indeed, that “cure” would be far more devastating than the illness.”

It’s a dilemma. The kids want digs. The market needs cooling. Alt lending is a danger. And Millennials are now the biggest voting block, with a troubled government heading to the polls. Will the test be nixed? Or will the government force the Mills into a soulless suburban gulag, imprisoned for hours a day – hollow-eyed, stressed and defeated – in a machine hurtling down some death expressway, spewing carbon?

You must ask?

135 comments ↓

#1 Jimmy on 04.18.19 at 4:40 pm

Happy Easter to all!

#2 Victoria Real Estate Update on 04.18.19 at 4:41 pm

LOWERING STANDARDS

Those who are capable of grasping the big picture with respect to Canada’s housing bubble and debt bubble problems understand that the stress test was too little and approximately a decade too late. Below are some of the facts that make this clear:

* By 2011 (or earlier) Canada’s housing bubble was bigger than the 2006 US bubble at its peak.
* Canada’s extreme housing price run-up matched that in the States and then skyrocket past it after 2007 (first chart).
* Canada’s massive debt run-up matched that in the States and then jetted past it after 2007 (first chart).

What suddenly made house prices in Canada start to skyrocket after 2000? That’s easy – more and more bubble-blowing policy (irresponsible mortgage lending standards). Later – in 2009 – came emergency rates.

Even with the stress test in place, Canada’s mortgage lending standards are still lax. For example, compared to the States:

* Canada’s minimum down payment is 5% (10% for some). In the States it’s 20%.

* Canada has only hiked rates 5 times recently while the States has hiked 9 times. (And which country was hit harder by the financial crisis in 2009??!!) Those who are intelligent enough to understand the big picture know that the stress test (for the most part) basically only compensates for the lack of recent rate hikes compared to the States.

* CMHC removes all of the risk from the banks. This has enabled Canadian banks to issue mortgages to buyers with low qualifications. And with 5% down, many Canadian mortgages would be considered subprime in the States.

Continued…

#3 Victoria Real Estate Update on 04.18.19 at 4:43 pm

RISKY BUSINESS

The stress test only partially removes some of the risk that Canada’s lax lending standards bring. Again, too little and approximately a decade too late. Canada’s housing bubble will deflate fully and completely with or without the stress test.

Removing the stress test may result in higher prices in some markets, but those gains would be temporary and would only make the inevitable major price correction worse.

OTTAWA’S WHINE FEST CONTINUES

It’s pathetic how Canadian realtors, builders and bankers have been whining and crying to Ottawa for months to get rid of the stress test. Is this a case of minds unwilling/incapable of understanding the big picture? Is it an example of how far their self-serving sense of entitlement will push them? Both?

I like how realtors have never had a problem with the implementation of any of the bubble-blowing policy over the past 2 decades that has basically priced out 2 generations of Canadians – but have always been quick to cry foul at policy makers when any kind of prudent policy is implemented that might stand between them and commission money.

NO HOUSING BUBBLE HAS EVER HAD A SOFT LANDING

200 years of housing bubble history stands behind this and I have yet to see a coherent argument that is based on more than an opinion or false information that proves that Canada’s bubble is different.

Canada’s “it’s different here” cheerleaders – who insist there will be a soft landing – will keep spreading their false information until Mr. Market proves that Canada’s bubble isn’t different.

#4 Stan Brooks on 04.18.19 at 4:50 pm

#78 Tater on 04.18.19 at 7:35 am

Of course, standard of living can’t decline by 100%. But please, continue beclowning yourself.

Of course. I was talking about inflation. You calculate your decline in purchasing power/aka standard of living/ as you wish: 50 % for 10 years in housing in Canada, 66 % in Toronto, Vancouver. Not 40 %.

Typical frozen brain, half educated, but confident and persistent.

The most dangerous kind who things that crap wrapped in lingo and verbal diarrhea communicated in ‘educated, competent and confident tone’ can change the facts.

#5 Damifino on 04.18.19 at 4:51 pm

A five star post tonight. Brilliant.

#6 Joyeux Pâques Monsieur Kenney on 04.18.19 at 4:51 pm

Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois
‏ @GNadeauDubois
2h2 hours ago

M. @jkenney, just to make sure you understand Quebec’s not into tar sands oil and Albertan pipelines, here’s the motion that was adopted UNANIMOUSLY by all MNAs of the National Assembly of Quebec yesterday morning.
https://twitter.com/GNadeauDubois?lang=en

#7 thebarold on 04.18.19 at 4:53 pm

Sorry but as a GenXer that didn’t have an RESP to pay for university and I still had my own apt after graduating and finding a job. Not a fancy one but a steady one that I worked my butt off at. I didn’t have a car (nor did I take taxis everywhere) didn’t take fancy vacations every year and didn’t have an instagrammable wardrobe. There were a few lucky ones who didn’t have to work through Uni and parents helped with their first home. But the majority of my classmates ground it out. I think it’s the experience of having their university paid for them that has actually caused adultus interruptus. Next thing you know the feds will introduce a Registered Home savings plan for parents to help pay for their kids first home as well. Sigh.

#8 VanMan on 04.18.19 at 4:54 pm

It has been said many times in the comments section that as soon as the Gov’t needs an Ace, the stress test will be gone. Power > Finance. It’s all politics, plain and simple.

Yes I know the banking regulators brought it in, but the Gov’t can’t influence (power) it being removed. Just watch…

#9 Mike on 04.18.19 at 4:58 pm

.
No govt can afford to make homeowners unhappy.

Renters, buy now or keep renting.

Bye bye to B-20…soon !!!

And, we want drug money laundering and Kristy Clark back now…

#10 Bob Dog on 04.18.19 at 5:00 pm

Canadians have a hard time distinguishing between putting your pay check into the bank and giving your pay check to the bank.

Nationalize the banks and eliminate CMHC.

#11 I don't understand on 04.18.19 at 5:04 pm

Millennials make up almost a third of the entire population – 10.1 million of the little peckers.

are both sexes considered little peckers these days?
And weren’t you going to tell us the meaning of life?

#12 Stan Brooks on 04.18.19 at 5:04 pm

as many borrowers are left with no “lenders of last resort” to turn to.

Remind me again: Who do you need to borrow at all for whatever the reason? Why not spend money that you earned and saved first as in the good old times?

The answer? To keep up with the Joneses, i.e the idiots around you.

The ability to stay normal while in a mental institution has it’s limits.(™)

#13 I’m stupid on 04.18.19 at 5:13 pm

My thoughts on axing the stress test.

The test has increased the cost of the bottom of the Realestate market that’s undisputed.

Let’s assume the test is removed, all those millennials that now qualify for bigger mortgages are going to want houses. The only problem is that the ones that can cough up more dough already own condos so they’re going to need to sell. All that selling is going to put downward pressure on prices resulting in less money for down payments on new digs.

Catch 22 I guess. Am I wrong?

#14 Mike on 04.18.19 at 5:24 pm

For your viewing pleasure:

https://www.thebeaverton.com/2019/04/alberta-elects-its-first-assistant-trailer-park-supervisor-as-premier/

#15 The Wet One on 04.18.19 at 5:27 pm

You sure are a crotchety old fogey aren’t you?

Jeez.

I haven’t seen Millennial bashing this bad in a awhile.

Not very nice Garth. Not very nice at all.

#16 Spia on 04.18.19 at 5:33 pm

First I come to this blog for the dog pics. Good one today! There will be plenty of boomer homes for sale to the millennial s – no need to change the rules quite yet – let market forces drive the price. If the boomers do not have the funds to retire (as per stats), they will have to sell, en masse, lowering prices, etc. Patience is the key. It is a right of passage to commute, get over it. Now for those of us renewing – go for a 5 year fixed locked in term or variable?

#17 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.18.19 at 5:33 pm

@#6 Joyeux
“MNAs of the National Assembly of Quebec ”

*****
Last time I checked…
Quebec was a Province of Canada.

Thus they are MLA’s in the Provincial Legislature of Quebec….
No matter how delusional the seperatistes are…..

#18 sean on 04.18.19 at 5:39 pm

RE: #6 Joyeux Pâques Monsieur Kenney on 04.18.19 at 4:51 pm

According to section 3.1.1 of https://lop.parl.ca/sites/PublicWebsite/default/en_CA/ResearchPublications/201386E#a8

With respect to environmental regulation:

“The federal government has authority to regulate in relation to fisheries, shipping and navigation. Federal jurisdiction over these subject matters applies for all parts of the oceans under Canadian jurisdiction, as well as lakes, rivers and streams within the provinces and territories. Federal jurisdiction over these matters does not vary depending on whether waters are owned by the federal Crown or the provincial Crown or are privately owned.”

Assuming that “shipping” applies the transport of oil, it seems to me that it might be possible to run a pipeline East to Ontario, then up the beds of the Ottawa and St. Lawrence rivers (a la Nord Stream 2) to a floating terminal located within reach of ocean going vessels, all without requiring any consent from Quebec.

Obviously this isn’t the ideal route, but providing an option to bypass the “Quebec veto” might allow a compromise to be negotiated.

#19 baloney Sandwitch on 04.18.19 at 5:46 pm

Jason is changing his tune as we speak. No one wants to listen to a screamer.

#20 yorkville renter on 04.18.19 at 5:53 pm

5.4% isnt even remotely high… recency bias at its best (worst?)

#21 Re-Cowtown on 04.18.19 at 6:17 pm

Certain people in Quebec may not be in to Alberta oil. Fair enough. Then allow them to opt out of $10 / day daycare because it’s Alberta oil that pays for it.

#22 Shego on 04.18.19 at 6:20 pm

Come from a poor assetless family. Borrowed money to go to college. Found a job after graduation. Made debt repayment my top priority. Moved in with a roommate, accepted any gig available in addition to main job. In 2 years was debt free. Entertainment budget was and still is zero. No purchasing of any major items, instead I scout back alleys for furniture and browse Craigslist for most essential purchases. No vacations, no eating out. Just work, sleep and money management. Been doing that for the last 15 years. Have enough saved up to be able to sleep well at night. Although I could’ve invested in housing, my conscience would not allow it in an inflated market. When there is disparity between the cost of ownership and incomes, makes no sense to overpay for what is essentially an anchor, preventing effortless relocation and presents a target for the tax man. I gladly rent. Investments are diversified and liquid savings are in a basket of currencies. I live the most boring life of anyone I know, but that’s the price to pay for low risk, high financial security. Millenials in my age group want to have it all. They want things now and more things later. They need to learn to make sacrifices. Instant gratification culture brought on by the internet interferes with people’s ability to plan for the future, and parents who were supposed to look out for them are simply unfit to parent. The next generation – I can’t even imagine them having kids. They’re all deranged media addicts, indifferent from shady types who shoot up heroin in downtown alleys. They cannot commit to anything. Feels like a demographic dead end.

#23 wallflower on 04.18.19 at 6:21 pm

Easiest solution: eradicate CMHC (it was started for another reason; now, it’s just a problem) and let lenders go wild

#24 tccontrarian on 04.18.19 at 6:22 pm

“The test also pushed a lot of buyers into the voracious arms of subprime lenders, happy to make bets on higher-risk buyers who end up paying twice or three times the rate available at the banks. This, CIBC concluded a few days ago, is a big deal. When borrowers go to alt lenders because the banks won’t give them money they slip out of the insured mortgage world. So when the next recession comes along there could be a whack more personal failures.

That’s how real estate crashes start.” -GT
//////////////////////////////////////////

From your last sentence in the quote above, it would appear that you no longer think there’s going to be a ‘slow-melt’.

All the pieces of a cataclysmic event are in place, IMO. We just need to let things unfold as they must. Financial illiteracy has it’s costs – as does every other type of ignorance.

TCC

#25 BlogDog123 on 04.18.19 at 6:24 pm

Too much regulation/restrictions such as converting wide lots in older neighbourhoods into semi/townhouses. Too much grassroots opposition for this kind of change.

Or some permanent long distance non-stop trains from Shantytown, ON to Union Station can totally transform a down-and-out rural town.

#26 Howard on 04.18.19 at 6:36 pm

#16 Spia on 04.18.19 at 5:33 pm
First I come to this blog for the dog pics. Good one today! There will be plenty of boomer homes for sale to the millennial s – no need to change the rules quite yet – let market forces drive the price. If the boomers do not have the funds to retire (as per stats), they will have to sell, en masse, lowering prices, etc. Patience is the key. It is a right of passage to commute, get over it. Now for those of us renewing – go for a 5 year fixed locked in term or variable?

—————————————————

I’ve got two words for you : REVERSE MORTGAGE

The Boomers won’t sell. They’d rather hand over much of their equity to the bank and receive regular reverse mortgage payments in order to stay in their empty 3000 sq ft McMansions. And best of all, their Millennial kids will inherit nothing as a result. It will all go to the bank.

#27 westcdn on 04.18.19 at 6:47 pm

My little pomme de terres are doing well. So far, no killer frosts. I am thinking of planting more. They are building a community garden near my back yard – I hope to win the lottery to get a box. I will grow carrots, beets, turnips, lettuce should I be lucky. I planted tomato seedlings. Nine of ten sprouted which surprised me as I bought them last year. They really don’t like being repotted yet none have died. I grow cherries. I still struggle to grow strawberries. My father said “carry on my wayward son” – he was a farmer too.

#28 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.18.19 at 6:52 pm

@#21 Cowtown
Re Joyeux
“Certain people in Quebec may not be in to Alberta oil. Fair enough. Then allow them to opt out of $10 / day daycare because it’s Alberta oil that pays for it’

*****

Touche!

#29 Cto on 04.18.19 at 6:53 pm

Steven poloz is the answer to this dilemma. He has within his grasp the ability raise or lower interest rates. At this point after years and years its clear as hell ain’t no businesses are using his ultra-low interest rates. No business growth no innovation. The only groups using a low interest rates are the horny home buyers. What is really in this man’s interest. Does he want to tame the housing market or not?
Do the right thing Stephen!!!

#30 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.18.19 at 6:55 pm

@#15 Wet behind the ears
“Not very nice Garth. Not very nice at all.”

*****
Brutal honesty never is…..

#31 Lost...but not leased on 04.18.19 at 6:56 pm

Re: Alt lenders

IMHO any/all parties that lend to potential residential real estate purchasers ( ie homeowners, not landlords ) should be regulated…otherwise what purpose is served with Stress Test..B20 etc.except to protect the Big Banks?

NOT regulating alt lenders allows parties to infiltrate the RE market, ….skew it even further beyond fundamentals….. and set prudent RE owners up for a major equity fall…ie doesn’t the Gov’t have an obligation to protect Banks AND the current long term homeowners who didn’t drive the current market insanity ?

Since 2008 crash..I don’t think the masses will tolerate ” Banks= too big too fail ” and everyone else gets screwed…Obama apparently told the banksters he was the one that saved them from torches and pitchforks.

#32 S.Bby on 04.18.19 at 6:59 pm

How did we ever manage when interest rates were north of 10 %.

Boomers are tough, resilient, fierce. Obviously. – Garth

#33 -=jwk=- on 04.18.19 at 7:12 pm

Those 100,000 people don’t have to reach up for the market, the market needs to come down to them, and it will. The true fix is dissolving CMHC…

#34 Brian Ripley on 04.18.19 at 7:21 pm

One thing that looks actual to me is that when institutional agents (CMHC etal) or even families provide free or very low cost credit, creating sub prime borrowers, the object of that credit rises in price if there are enough actors in the market.

For example, it shows up on my Vancouver Housing chart http://www.chpc.biz/vancouver-housing.html

Notice that when the BC Government was handing out no interest loans, as a pre-election quid-pro-quo for votes (and failed); the Vancouver Strata market boiled over while the SF Detached market was labouring to produce heat.

After the spigot was turned off, the strata market succumbed to the credit contraction that was already growing before the helicopter drop.

Millennials will inherit the housing of their parents.

#35 Nonplused on 04.18.19 at 7:24 pm

I’ve come up with a new (for me) thought on the stress test: Let the markets decide. Hear me out.

Any government backed or insured institutions should be subject to the stress test. The government has after all become a market player in this thing so they should be able to determine what they will insure and what they won’t. As a kind of “owner” of a share of the government I appreciate the risk management effort. It’s my money after all.

But private lenders should be able to do whatever they want. If a private lender (and it could be a public company too) wants to step into the void created by the stress test, with no government insurance, let them. Why not? It’s their money. In fact I think if you look into the details there is nothing preventing them from doing so.

Instead, what we are seeing is realturds and scalpers trying to get the government to insure dodgy loans. That means they are trying to get YOU to insure their dodgy loans. There is no reason we should agree to do this. Remember, the first objective of investment is return OF capital, not return on capital. 7% per year might sound good but not if the capital is wiped out in year 10. That’s a Buffet thing I didn’t make it up.

So I say let the private investors make whatever loans they like so long as the government is not backstopping it in any way. Private industry and the invisible hand will determine what loans are available to whom and at what rates. But if the government is backstopping it, then the government gets to say to whom they will make loans and to whom they won’t. I demand it on my behalf as a shareholder of the government. I personally would not lend $500,000 dollars to a millennial with a dodgy job and a small down payment who could not survive a small increase in interest rates, and thus I do not want the government doing so (or more accurately insuring such activity) on my behalf.

#36 Nonplused on 04.18.19 at 7:30 pm

Addendum: Remember folks, if you aren’t willing to pay for it personally, you absolutely don’t understand what’s going on if you ask the government to pay for it. What the government pays for, you pay for. The government doesn’t have any money. They must resort to taxes. That’s just the way it works. To repeat, for the slow, if the government is paying for something, you are paying for it. That is the only way it can work.

Sometimes that works out ok, I appreciate the roads, schools and hospitals we have in this fine country. But dodgy loans to people who can’t afford things? Sorry, no.

#37 AGuyInVancouver on 04.18.19 at 7:46 pm

#26 S.Bby on 04.18.19 at 6:59 pm
How did we ever manage when interest rates were north of 10 %.
_ _ _
Real estate was much cheaper.

It is clear that inflation calcuations haven’t properly factored in the rise in housing prices and it effect on the broader economy. Also clear that the BoC is far too myopically fixated on inflation and ignores many other economic perils.

Real estate is not ‘cheaper’ when mortgage rates are five times higher. – Garth

#38 Sold Out on 04.18.19 at 8:01 pm

Surely the good dogs on this animal-loving blog know someone in the joint. This tool needs a taste of what this dog went through.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/animal-cruelty-kyle-springer-sentenced-woodstock-diesel-1.5103364

#39 Robert Ash on 04.18.19 at 8:02 pm

Our innovative Government Leaders, should start to Consult with countries like Japan, that have pretty advanced Light Rail systems, and offer a viable alternative to fast transit at a reasonable price. It seems, to me, that this is the only alternative, given GT’s comments… I also think most Boomers, who were in the suburbs, in the last 30-40 years, recognise with good Municipal planning and development, the mass transit option is the way of the Future…. Most Asian cities, have Sky Trains, and MTR’s etc… All the major High Density locations, have rapid and reliable mass transit…. Today folks, can be productive while transiting to work. Canada is a big country, and this should be a priority, but if you review the Comments, from the list above, there are too many objections, to those projects, that just make sense… Look at the Pipeline issue… Divisive… imagine a rail line… can’t happen in my province is my country canada, and then the MSM, just waiting to create a story out of every little development, or change, or Innovation. Paralysis through Consultation.

#40 Lost...but not leased on 04.18.19 at 8:03 pm

Boomers need to study demographics…

Millenials aka the next wave of “potential” buyers are a combination of fiscally challenged and brainwashed via education industry to accept/demand(?) less.

Millies will want a shoebox condo, rely on public transit, and follow other ” go green ” commandments.

Strategically downsize….

#41 Herb on 04.18.19 at 8:17 pm

#17 crowdedelevatorfarts,

you can thank Monsoor Harper for that. It was a hot topic on Garth’s blog at the time –

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qu%C3%A9b%C3%A9cois_nation_motion

#42 Reverse Mortgages on 04.18.19 at 8:23 pm

#16 Spia on 04.18.19 at 5:33 pm
First I come to this blog for the dog pics. Good one today! There will be plenty of boomer homes for sale to the millennial s – no need to change the rules quite yet – let market forces drive the price. If the boomers do not have the funds to retire (as per stats), they will have to sell, en masse, lowering prices, etc. Patience is the key.

——————

Wrong. The boomers will put reverse mortgages on their homes when they run out of money. The boomers will NEVER allow the millenials to become home owners. NEVER!!!

Sorry millennials. Oh and by the way your taxes are going way up to pay for their pensions and soring medical costs.

#43 Peter McLean on 04.18.19 at 8:24 pm

As they say, Scooby Doo can Doo doo, but Jerry Carter is smarter.

#44 NotLegalAdvice on 04.18.19 at 8:24 pm

“in a machine hurtling down some death expressway, spewing carbon?” – GT

This post hit close to home, Garth. I commute a minimum of one hour 15 minutes each way because I’m currently renting in the suburbs.

However, I decided to bare the burden of an overcrowdrd GO Train. Sometimes left standing for the duration of my commute into or out of DT Toronto. I’m a millennial, under 30.

I tried driving down, but it took me almost 2 and a half hours, I couldn’t do it anymore. Go train it was.

You’re right, what I want more than anything is to buy my own place in the burbs. 2 car garage, 2500 sq ft. 4 bedroom 3 washroom. If the prices just reset back to 2015 levels, I would jump on board and own some real estate. Holding off on starting a family because the rental market is crazy high right now as well. 2500. Ouch! 400 bux to commute in. Ouch! 200 for insurance. 200 a month for gas. The expenses are endless. Yet ive managed to save. Over 200k all liquid. Patiently waiting for a crash of some sort.

Will the Liberals help us Millennials? They’ll say they can, but I know better. Can the conservative’s save us? Probably not. NDP? Fohgehabouhit (spell check).

Only way this ends is in a market crash. Familes will suffer. People will be homeless. All because of situation that we all created. Real estate always has been local.

Happy Easter!

#45 N on 04.18.19 at 8:27 pm

This is interesting…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-04-16/college-kids-are-living-like-kings-in-vancouver-s-empty-mansions

#46 Vampire Studies (post grad) on 04.18.19 at 8:27 pm

31 Lost…..it sounds like you are describing a suck/blow situation. You’re concerned about protecting equity of “prudent RE owners” in a market that is skewed by alt lenders??

#47 Dolce Vita on 04.18.19 at 8:27 pm

Cher Québec:

NEVER BITE THE HAND THAT FEEDS YOU.

AB taxpayers foot an $8 Billion Deficit so Les Québécois can drown themselves in Poutine, Oka Cheese, Pizza “All Dress” with a knob in the middle (revolting to this Italian) and Beavertails.

Oh, and thumb their noses at Socially Unacceptable Alberta.

Anyone that has been around long enough knows this simple fact about Les Québécois:

1. TALK WITH THEIR HANDS ON THEIR HEARTS.
2. VOTE WITH THEIR HANDS ON THEIR POCKETBOOKS.

That being true, and IT IS, some POCKETBOOK facts:

-2018-19, Equalization Payments = $19 Billion (AB pays $3 billion of that).
-2018-19, of the above Québec gets = $11.8 Billion (62% of Equalization Payments).
-2019-20, 15.4% of Québec Provincial Revenues are from Equalization Payments.
-2016-17, WITHOUT Equalization Payments, EVERY man, woman, child in QUEBEC will have to pay this much more, that’s PER CAPITA:

$1,206/year
$190 of that from AB (with love)

ODDLY, Mrs. Massé, Mr. Gaudreault and Mrs. Fournier (MNAs of the National Assembly of Québec) NEGLECTED to add the $190/per person Les Québécois will pay more in Provincial Tax if AB cuts payments (Avg. Family Size in Québec is 2.8); thus, the AVG. FAMILY IN PQ pays this much more WITHOUT SOCIALLY UNACCEPTABLE Alberta’s money:

$532/year

Of course, that’s not the end of it. AB pays an ADDITIONAL $20 BILLION more than it gets from Canada for these Transfer/Benefit Programs:

-Health
-Social
-CPP
-OAS
-EI

And Québec worries about SNC-Lavalin pulling out and its effect on pensions – AB pulling out of its payments will make SNC-Lavalin seem a walk in the park.

I wonder how they would have voted if one of the MOTIONS was:

“THAT the National Assembly will ask Québécois to pay $1,200 per person more so we can stop the economy of SOCIALLY UNACCEPTABLE ALBERTA that helps pay for 15.4% of our bills”.

——————————————————-

As a personal protest, next time I go to my Italian grocery store, PAM, I will NOT BUY Québec sirop d’érable INSTEAD I will buy Vermont maple syrup.

So there. Take that Mrs. Massé, Mr. Gaudreault and Mrs. Fournier.

#48 DON on 04.18.19 at 8:29 pm

With respect to China’s new found growth. Different way at looking at things.

“The consumer side doesn’t look any better. Auto sales fell 11 percent in the first quarter from an already tepid 2018. Mobile-phone shipments slid 12 percent over the same period, compounding a 26 percent tumble a year earlier. Households are clearly feeling the pinch: They’re ordering less takeout from delivery apps and seeing fewer movies at the box office. Shoppers are using their credit cards more, with balances up 23 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier. And while surveys show household expenditure rose nearly 15 percent in 2018, there’s little left over in the budget for any extras. That helps explain why production of air conditioners is down 1 percent in the first two months of the year, while washing machine output dipped 7 percent.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-04-17/china-1q-gdp-rosy-data-can-t-hide-an-economic-downturn?utm_source=twitter&utm_content=nextchina&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic

#49 april on 04.18.19 at 8:34 pm

#3 – we’re in full agreement with you. The realtors, builders, brokers, bankers, all of them couldn’t care less if the young folks never bought a home. It’s only about serving the interests of the real estate industry. We can never understand why the government gives in to this lot knowing full well where their interest lies…stress test needs to remain. Home prices are still outrageously high. Are governments not supposed to protect their citizens from such corruption or are they all in it together…….despicable!

#50 Yukon Elvis on 04.18.19 at 8:35 pm

#37 AGuyInVancouver on 04.18.19 at 7:46 pm
#26 S.Bby on 04.18.19 at 6:59 pm
How did we ever manage when interest rates were north of 10 %.
_ _ _
Real estate was much cheaper.

It is clear that inflation calcuations haven’t properly factored in the rise in housing prices and it effect on the broader economy. Also clear that the BoC is far too myopically fixated on inflation and ignores many other economic perils.

Real estate is not ‘cheaper’ when mortgage rates are five times higher. – Garth
…………………………………..

We also earned a helluva lot less and needed larger downpayments.

#51 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.18.19 at 8:41 pm

The Vancouver Courier

“There’s plenty of time to buy….patience is a virtue…”

https://www.vancourier.com/real-estate/patience-perspective-key-to-surviving-real-estate-slump-1.23791678

#52 DON on 04.18.19 at 8:42 pm

#35 Nonplused on 04.18.19 at 7:24 pm

Makes perfect sense to me.

#53 Bruce MacLachlan on 04.18.19 at 8:43 pm

Another good one Garth.
I loved how you made it clear talking about GIC’s was more interesting than Jason Kenney’s win.
Are you sure you wouldn’t rather be a writer full time?

#54 Math on 04.18.19 at 8:44 pm

Real estate is not ‘cheaper’ when mortgage rates are five times higher. – Garth

—————————————————————-

Your prospects of paying off a $150,000 mortgage or being able to pay for a $200,000 home in cash, are far better than paying off a mortgage of over $1000000 or paying cash for 1.2 million-dollar home regardless of the interest rate differential. Especially when your salary has barely budged in decades inflation-adjusted and the cost of living has gone through the roof.

Stop moaning and comparing. Prices go up when rates go down. Every generation struggles. You are not special. – Garth

#55 DON on 04.18.19 at 8:45 pm

#30 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.18.19 at 6:55 pm

@#15 Wet behind the ears
“Not very nice Garth. Not very nice at all.”

*****
Brutal honesty never is…..

&&&&&&&&&

…and delusion is truly bliss.

#56 DON on 04.18.19 at 8:51 pm

@#15 Wet behind the ears
“Not very nice Garth. Not very nice at all.”

*****

Go to your room!

#57 Yukon Elvis on 04.18.19 at 8:53 pm

DELETED

#58 oh boy on 04.18.19 at 8:59 pm

@#22 Shego on 04.18.19 at 6:20 pm
Come from a poor assetless family. Borrowed money to go to college. Found a job after graduation. Made debt repayment my top priority. Moved in with a roommate, accepted any gig available in addition to main job. In 2 years was debt free. Entertainment budget was and still is zero. No purchasing of any major items, instead I scout back alleys for furniture and browse Craigslist for most essential purchases. No vacations, no eating out. Just work, sleep and money management. Been doing that for the last 15 years. Have enough saved up to be able to sleep well at night. Although I could’ve invested in housing, my conscience would not allow it in an inflated market. When there is disparity between the cost of ownership and incomes, makes no sense to overpay for what is essentially an anchor, preventing effortless relocation and presents a target for the tax man. I gladly rent. Investments are diversified and liquid savings are in a basket of currencies. I live the most boring life of anyone I know, but that’s the price to pay for low risk, high financial security. _______________
________________________________________

Good for you if you’re enjoying it.
Remember we only get one shot at life.
there’s no magical utopia to go to when your times up

#59 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.18.19 at 9:03 pm

@#41 Smoking Herb
“you can thank Monsoor Harper for that.”
+++++

seriously?
You’re telling me Jean Bertrand renamed the provincial Legislature the “National Assembly” in 1968 to spite Stephen Harper in the year 2010?

Mon Dieu!
What foresight!
I’m sure it had nothing to do with “Union Nationale”Deputy Leader Bertrand’s( he became “leader” when the real Premier Daniel Johnson Sr dropped dead from a heart attack) greasing his chances in the coming re-election campaign and attempting to schmooze the gullible francophone populace for easy votes during the “Quiet Revolution”…..

Unfortunately “Boo Boo Bourassa” ….had a better hair stylist….and the rest, as they say, is history…..
Bertrand lost in the spring of 1970 and by October the merde was hitting the fan…

But I digress.

Madames and Monsieurs!
History has , once again, been rewritten by the Quebec seperatistes.

Whats next?
Napoleon won at Waterloo?

#60 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.18.19 at 9:05 pm

@#51 DON
“and delusion is truly bliss.”

++++

I’ll drink to that!

#61 Not So New guy on 04.18.19 at 9:15 pm

Always beware of cra rep advice. I just went through a phone call with a cra rep telling me I needed to charge gst when I know I don’t

#62 Dolce Vita on 04.18.19 at 9:17 pm

Re: #47 Dolce Vita.

Cher Québec:

I forgot to mention that without Alberta’s money you will also have to cut back on:

Bifteck au Poivre (which I like).

Of course your “bifteck” comes from over the hill, subsidized dairy cow meat (so my Ontario meat grading acquaintance claims).

In lieu, Alberta offers its very fine anabolic steroid + antibiotic/antiviral beef.

Tough choice:

Betsy la Vache or Very “Buff” Steer.

—————————————————

Ya, I know Garth…Buonanotte d'[*]Italia.

*Alberta, give us your Québec equalization and benefit/transfer payments instead, our GDP needs them…free pizza and pasta in Il Bel Paese if you do when you come and visit.

Wear a white caboy hat, leather chaps and shitkicker boots so we know that you are the real deal.

#63 adee on 04.18.19 at 9:21 pm

if there is demand and upwards price pressure for entry level homes, why aren’t builders building them?

#64 Ronaldo on 04.18.19 at 9:28 pm

#42 Reverse Mortgages

If the boomers do not have the funds to retire (as per stats), they will have to sell, en masse, lowering prices, etc. Patience is the key.
——————————————————————
Most of my boomer friends have no plans to sell their home until absolutely necessary and that won’t be anytime soon for most of them and these are the top end boomers. Maybe in another 13 years or so you may see an increase in boomers selling but certainly not right now. The idea that older boomers are going to sell and move into condo’s imo is false. Most plan to stay in their homes as long as possible. As for reverse mortgages, I know of none who are having to do this. Most boomers I hang out with know how bad this strategy is particularly in an environment of falling home prices and rising interest rates. The quickest way to financial ruin imo.

#65 ImGonnaBeSick on 04.18.19 at 9:29 pm

#10 Bob Dog on 04.18.19 at 5:00 pm

You’re gross bud… Nationalize nothing. If you want to partake in bank profits, buy the shares you dope.

#66 Mirza on 04.18.19 at 10:05 pm

Happy Good Friday & Happy Easter to all !!!

#67 acdel on 04.18.19 at 10:16 pm

Hey Garth you miserable ****; last week it was pick on the Gen-x gens and now the mills; your generation had it good; admit it.. Enough already! Do not buy if you cannot afford it; invest, flipping is dead, get on board or lose everything!

Anyways, not going down that road we are all doing the best we can.

Oh by the way, thanks!

Happy Easter dawgs!!

#68 Lorne on 04.18.19 at 10:31 pm

#37 AGuyInVancouver on 04.18.19 at 7:46 pm
#26 S.Bby on 04.18.19 at 6:59 pm
How did we ever manage when interest rates were north of 10 %.
_ _ _
Real estate was much cheaper.

It is clear that inflation calcuations haven’t properly factored in the rise in housing prices and it effect on the broader economy. Also clear that the BoC is far too myopically fixated on inflation and ignores many other economic perils.

Real estate is not ‘cheaper’ when mortgage rates are five times higher. – Garth
……
If you pay “cash” it certainly is cheaper.

#69 Dudlow on 04.18.19 at 10:32 pm

Why on earth we do not seriously entertain the notion of providing Legacy Mortgages here in North America is beyond me. Europe has utilized these instruments to facilitate housing for several centuries because it works. Both the Fraser Institute and The Economist mag kicked this around about a decade ago but we seem to have just rolled over and gone back to sleep.

#70 Lead Paint on 04.18.19 at 10:45 pm

Just finished attending an AI conference in NYC.

Prediction: soon young people will happily live in higher concentrations in dwellings with people they are not otherwise in relationships with as their AI assistants will broadcast their moods and needs to their roommates agent .

In essence we will have AI agents negotiating with each other’s agents, removing the threat and problems of direct conflict. This will make living or working with fellow humans much easier.

#71 Lead Paint on 04.18.19 at 11:04 pm

further… your phone will know your mood in real time. Based on your movements, tone of voice, content/sentiment in emails or conversations. Scary stuff in one sense, but if it helps you negotiate a happy cohabitation with others then it offers amazing upside.

#72 tccontrarian on 04.18.19 at 11:06 pm

The problem with millenials (and others, of course), is that they’ve grown up in a world where most things are available quickly (think internet). But, as wise ones of times past have stated, “good things come to those that wait”. Add the reality of recency bias and we have a dangerous mix – leading them to assume that current conditions are actually ‘normal’ and here to stay.
They buy a stock today and if they’re not ‘making money’ by next week they are disappointed. They seem to understand cycles as well as fruit-flies, which live 40-50 days at most. Their idea of ‘cycles’ is probably much the same as some of these millenials!

The fact is, RE cycles take much longer than most things we have constant interactions with. We’ve seen one side of the cycle (the bullish phase), and we’re beginning to see the other side (the bearish), which will take time as well. As in equity markets, the bearish phase is shorter – as fear is a much stronger emotion than greed. For this reason, the steepest declines occur in the final stages.

RE Prices in major Canadian cities (mostly Vancouver and Toronto), are NOT normal and are bound to ‘normal’ levels, as dictated by fundamentals (ie. income). Monerary policies since Greenspan have created bubble after bubble and these always play out as bubble do, but each with its own signature. We are in uncharted territory now with rates having been artificially low for so long. We have incredible amounts of misallocated capital as the Fed and other CBs have ‘forced’ people to chase yield – wherever they can get it. Retirees sure haven’t been getting a living rate in CDs, so equities have enjoyed influx of capital that would otherwise have been parked in ‘safe’ investments.

So, my take is that RE prices will likely to find a bottom AFTER a serious bear market in equities, when just about everyone you know will be losing ‘money’ – coinciding with a strong NEGATIVE wealth effect.

As the US markets are likely to bottom sometime in 2021, I expect the RE bottom to be during 2023-24.

Until then, I’ll be renting and patiently waiting for the inevitable deflationary period (ie. bubble-bursting) to unfold. The only thing I’m really counting on is that

IT’S NOT DIFFERENT THIS TIME!

Brace yourselves, stay solvent, and pay down debts. There’s some real ‘interesting’ times ahead. And don’t forget, in every crisis there’s opportunity.

TCC

#73 leebow on 04.18.19 at 11:16 pm

Garth, you should do a late night show. Hilarious.

Where do the alt guys get the money. Quite a bold bet for the possible upside.

I met the CDO Gaussian copula David Li guy once. He is smart. Some people claim he caused 2007 all by himself. Bullshit. Where was common sense at that time? Where is it now?

#74 stage1dave on 04.18.19 at 11:21 pm

“…only 16% are married (or whatever)…”

Whatever? Common law or is the fiance deflating?

“…34% still living at home.”

Hmmm…In my day, that happened only if your parents had a double garage you could use…and didn’t mind you breaking in engines at 3 am…the odd burnout…and were also OK with Sabbath, Nazareth, Priest, AC/DC at extreme volume…and their liquor cabinet always a few pints short…your drunken hotrod friends…and minimal rent…

Or, if your parents had a large basement and you played guitar…they wouldn’t have to worry about tripping over all those car parts, cause they were busy tripping over your passed-out drunken wanna-be musician buddies. (All the other stuff above would happen as well, btw)

Everyone else was gone solo by the time they were 20, lots earlier. I sure was, but my mom didn’t have a garage!

(I did actually have a buddy who defied all these truisms, but he was a doctors’ son who smoked a ton of dope in his basement and always seemed to be able to analyze the most trivial minutae of an Alan Parson or Max Webster song. He may still be there for all I know)

Strangely, most of us were still single well into our 40s…hmmmm…gee, go figure!

Y’know, just remembered another buddy who lasted in the cellar till his mid 20s…was finally punted after his bass player and drummer passed out on the front lawn and were still there in the am…when mommy opened the drapes.

Damn! I miss the 70s…

#75 Rargary on 04.18.19 at 11:22 pm

#21 Re-Cowtown on 04.18.19 at 6:17 pm

Certain people in Quebec may not be in to Alberta oil. Fair enough. Then allow them to opt out of $10 / day daycare because it’s Alberta oil that pays for it.
LMFAO!

#64 Ronaldo… 13 years if one of the spousies don’t croak. Stuff happens.

#76 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.18.19 at 11:29 pm

@#58 oh bouy
“Remember we only get one shot at life.
there’s no magical utopia to go to when your times up”

+++++

I’m thinkin’ the Jehovah’s “sales pitch” is lost on you at the doorstep…….?

#77 Chaddywack on 04.18.19 at 11:29 pm

Millennials piss me off.

I’m so sick of their stupid joint smoking, craft brewing, arrogance about the world. They open businesses and try to charge people 3x the market rate for “artisan” products that they sell only to other millennials……most of whom still live in their parents basements…..hence the disposable income.

Also the stupid hypocritical social protests they are a part of (e.g. against oil while living in tents made out of petroleum products). They want everything handed to them on a silver platter without ever having to work for it. Show up to interviews in ball caps and t-shirts for professional positions and won’t even take their caps off at the interview table!?

In my day if I ever sat at the dinner table with a baseball cap on my head my dad would have probably swatted me a hard one right between the eyes.

This is what you have with a generation raised that you weren’t allowed to hold back a grade at school, weren’t allowed to suspend or expel because it would affect their self-esteem etc. (God forbid they ever got the strap)

Oh yeah and I really hate their stupid sleeve tattoos. At least have a motorcycle if you’re going to have the tats, the beard alone doesn’t do it!

#78 Bottoms_Up on 04.18.19 at 11:37 pm

$20,000 – 1 year commerce degree tuition, Queen’s university.

#79 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.18.19 at 11:38 pm

#103 Sail away on 04.18.19 at 11:29 am
#60 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.17.19 at 11:41 pm
“Most responsible parents plan for a future without oil.”

——————————————————

No- not true, not even slightly. Some people have a romantic vision of a future where internal combustion engines are no longer used, but nobody actually plans for a future without oil.
———–
Agreed, you are a nobody.
Still driving a F-150?

#80 Smartalox on 04.18.19 at 11:39 pm

The Boomers want B20 repealed because it’s hurting the values of the homes that they own, and that they’re trying to sell to Millennials, so that they can finally retire. All this talk about single-detached real estate being a ‘rights’ is propagated by the owners, not the buyers.

#81 Linda on 04.18.19 at 11:43 pm

Housing isn’t downtown vs. the suburbs. Both places have their pros & cons. Yes, commutes can feel endless, but the larger space with actual land is (usually) the tradeoff for commuting. Downtown has walking access to ‘everything’ – shops, restaurants, work, entertainment – but it sure is noisy. Those tall buildings seem to magnify the sound of sirens to the point where you’d swear they were right in your living space.

It boils down to choosing what works for you. For some it is buying, for others renting. Some like the compact living, others yearn for a McMansion. In the end, if you know what you want & are happy with your choices that is all that matters.

#82 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.18.19 at 11:48 pm

#32 S.Bby on 04.18.19 at 6:59 pm
How did we ever manage when interest rates were north of 10 %.

Boomers are tough, resilient, fierce. Obviously. – Garth
—————–
Good one, Garth.
We dealt with 15 % mortgage rates. Just another day in the office.
Many of us, who had extra money, made a killing investing in 18% GICs.
Glory days.

#83 Short Commons on 04.19.19 at 12:16 am

Every generation suffers. But the next generation might suffer the most. With the window to act closing, they’re inheriting a crisis of unimaginable proportions.

Greta Thunberg Speech at the EU Parliament
https://www.shortcommons.com/2019/04/greta-thunberg-speech-at-eu-parliament.html

#84 yorkville renter on 04.19.19 at 12:17 am

#61 – you have a business, you charge GST/HST. why would you not?
Annual revenue size doesn’t matter, and it’s a pass-through anyway

#85 will on 04.19.19 at 12:20 am

that is a very undignified picturation of a dog. i do not even believe that it is a photograph. why would you post such a ridiculous picturation?

#86 Long-Time Lurker on 04.19.19 at 12:28 am

I’m still here, Garth. Just lurking.

“Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt.
― Abraham Lincoln

#87 Stan Brooks on 04.19.19 at 12:34 am

#54 Math on 04.18.19 at 8:44 pm
Real estate is not ‘cheaper’ when mortgage rates are five times higher. – Garth

—————————————————————-

Your prospects of paying off a $150,000 mortgage or being able to pay for a $200,000 home in cash, are far better than paying off a mortgage of over $1000000 or paying cash for 1.2 million-dollar home regardless of the interest rate differential. Especially when your salary has barely budged in decades inflation-adjusted and the cost of living has gone through the roof

Of course your are correct.

But being logical, intelligent and smart has no benefits when surrounded mostly by brainwashed idiots, so find a better place.

Ans yes, you have the right to determine your own destiny.

Don’t buy the ‘life is hard, suck it up and move on, quit moaning and man up’ stuff. Simply move with all your assets and watch the comedy from far away.

What is about to unravel in Canada won’t be pretty, everyone reaps what he sow.

You don’t need to pay for other people stupidities and when in Canada you will pay indirectly through inflation and wage oppression.

The owners want to build one giant cheap labour camp by excessive loaning and then beating the sheep to death, milking and skinning it endless times.

It seems the customers south and abroad have different ideas though and as the inability to breed any sheep here (due to the excessive cost at least according to the owners who become greedier by the day) and due to lowered quality of new sheep purchased might render there calculations wrong.

Anyhow the remaining sheep will be milked to death with minimum food (stagnant wages), the older sheep (baby boomers) will be led to the cleaners/slaughterhouse, so will most of the remaining middle age sheep.

The younger sheep is doomed, the smarter sheep has left.

Cheers,

#88 Stan Brooks on 04.19.19 at 12:44 am

#54 Math on 04.18.19 at 8:44 pm

Don’t buy that every generation struggles.

2 generations ago people with no college degree, stay at home spouse could have 3 kids, afford a house and run the kids through university.

Now 2 working sheep could not get a condo, got forbid kids.

You don’t have to pay for everyone, let them suffer.
Nobody will appreciate it and everyone will conclude that you are stupid.

Run as fast as you can.

#89 AGuyInVancouver on 04.19.19 at 12:45 am

#50 Yukon Elvis on 04.18.19 at 8:35 pm

We also earned a helluva lot less and needed larger downpayments.
_ _ _
The first condo I bought in Yaletown was 1,200 sq ft for $199k, today it is $1.3 million, yet median income has barely budged during that time.

#90 Cpt.Obvious on 04.19.19 at 12:50 am

20 year olds want to live downtown with with the cool fixie bike riders? You don’t say?!

This generation is no different than the previous three. Everyone wants to be cool and hang out at the bars in their early twenties, by their late 20s early 30s they will be settling down in suburbia popping out sprogletts.

They’re not unique snowflakes, they just think they are.

#91 The Great Gordonski on 04.19.19 at 1:09 am

I would go back into the alt lending business in a second if it weren’t far more lucritive and stress free picking stocks. I was an alt lender and did well, know how to pick the right people to loan to, at 15%. But, the stock market is like shooting fish in a barrel by comparison. Did anyone else pick up the easy buck and a half that panic sellers left on the floor when Rogers announced their Q1? I bought a thousand shares at the open , made near $1500 in an hour, closed up shop for the day. I went to the gym instead of fielding calls from desperate borrowers who fear missing a payment and really just want to whine. “That ain’t working, that’s the way to do it. Money for nothing and the chicks are free”.

#92 TurnerNation on 04.19.19 at 1:54 am

Yup buy an American V8 and help defeat a Communist. Anathema to them.
Are you now or have you been an owner of a 4 cylinder?
Is that a V under your bonnet?

Sobar for real.

#93 BS on 04.19.19 at 2:39 am

I was hoping for an analysis of the proliferation of truck nutz Canada wide and how Kenney is going to troll T2. It is Easter weekend after all.

#94 Honky Donkey Blues on 04.19.19 at 3:58 am

“imprisoned for hours a day – hollow-eyed, stressed and defeated – in a machine hurtling down some death expressway, spewing carbon?”

if the Sex Pistols’ were to write a song about Truckin’ …..

#95 Howard on 04.19.19 at 4:33 am

Gee what a shock!

Realtors oppose mandatory sharing of offers among competing home buyers

https://www.thestar.com/business/real_estate/2019/04/17/realtors-oppose-mandatory-sharing-of-offers-among-competing-home-buyers.html

The Ontario Real Estate Association (OREA) sent a bulletin to its 78,000 members this week urging them to contact their MPPs to oppose the compulsory sharing of offer prices and conditions among competing buyers. That’s something the province has said it is considering as part of its planned update to the 2002 Real Estate Business Brokers Act (REBBA).

#96 Howard on 04.19.19 at 4:48 am

Real estate is not ‘cheaper’ when mortgage rates are five times higher. – Garth

—————————————–

$250,000 detached house in Toronto 20 years ago.
DP 20%.
Mortgage rate of 12%.
25-year amortization.
Monthly payment = $2,106

$1.2 million detached house in Toronto today.
DP 20%.
Mortgage rate of 3%.
25-year amortization.
Monthly payment = $4,552

I’m not good at math. Which amount is more affordable? $2106 or $4552?

Have salaries gone up 2.5x in the past 20 years?

#97 Hamsterwheelie on 04.19.19 at 7:43 am

Alt lenders & mortgage brokers got us where we are today re assorted houses.
Our current home is the nicest place we’ve ever lived – built in 1860 as a grocery store, purchased at $150,000 and spent $300,000 rebuilding – we are in the nicest unit of 4 – even though we only borrowed 1/2 the total money no bank or credit union would touch our self-employed butts. Going to private lenders was painful and stressful, lawyers certainly made money but in the end we ‘got ‘er done’. When the dust settled and we were literally putting the paint on the living room wall as the assessment was being done – estimate came back at $680,000 which allowed us to get a ‘real mortgage’ with a B-lender at just under 5% for 1/2 the evaluation.
We’re proof that you can pay through the nose in the short term on a income generating property AND a place to live – leveraging yourself into a better financial situation if you aren’t into showing off a McMansion in the burbs (which no one wants to see anyway)

#98 Remembrancer on 04.19.19 at 8:28 am

#94 Honky Donkey Blues on 04.19.19 at 3:58 am
“imprisoned for hours a day – hollow-eyed, stressed and defeated – in a machine hurtling down some death expressway, spewing carbon?”

if the Sex Pistols’ were to write a song about Truckin’ …..
———————————–
Different band, but same theme…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o5FPPoLqkCk

#99 Phylis on 04.19.19 at 9:00 am

#70 lead paint. My AI bot says your AI bot owes me because its only fair and your bot is a bully. Now pay up or i’ll put up a geo fence. Let the bot wars begin! Or wait we already have that…

#100 oh bouy on 04.19.19 at 9:04 am

@#76 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.18.19 at 11:29 pm
@#58 oh bouy
“Remember we only get one shot at life.
there’s no magical utopia to go to when your times up”

+++++

I’m thinkin’ the Jehovah’s “sales pitch” is lost on you at the doorstep…….?

_________________________

came to my door the other day, first time in awhile.
only difference, this time they started reading scripture to me from their ipad.

#101 Howard on 04.19.19 at 9:05 am

#78 Bottoms_Up on 04.18.19 at 11:37 pm
$20,000 – 1 year commerce degree tuition, Queen’s university.

——————————————————

20 years ago it was $10k a year ($5k per semester).

30 years ago I’m not sure, probably around $5k a year. General arts or sciences degrees at the time would have been ~$3k a year.

#102 Penny Henny on 04.19.19 at 9:06 am

Question for the bullion lickers.
I am looking to harvest some gains and take 5-10% of my portfolio and park it in gold for now. What would be the appropriate ETF for these funds?

#103 oh bouy on 04.19.19 at 9:11 am

@#77 Chaddywack on 04.18.19 at 11:29 pm
Millennials piss me off.

I’m so sick of their stupid joint smoking, craft brewing, arrogance about the world. They open businesses and try to charge people 3x the market rate for “artisan” products that they sell only to other millennials……most of whom still live in their parents basements…..hence the disposable income.

Also the stupid hypocritical social protests they are a part of (e.g. against oil while living in tents made out of petroleum products). They want everything handed to them on a silver platter without ever having to work for it. Show up to interviews in ball caps and t-shirts for professional positions and won’t even take their caps off at the interview table!?

In my day if I ever sat at the dinner table with a baseball cap on my head my dad would have probably swatted me a hard one right between the eyes.

This is what you have with a generation raised that you weren’t allowed to hold back a grade at school, weren’t allowed to suspend or expel because it would affect their self-esteem etc. (God forbid they ever got the strap)

Oh yeah and I really hate their stupid sleeve tattoos. At least have a motorcycle if you’re going to have the tats, the beard alone doesn’t do it!
________________________________

I hear if you shake your rake at em’ they’ll go away.

#104 akashic record on 04.19.19 at 9:23 am

#88 Stan Brooks

2 generations ago people with no college degree, stay at home spouse could have 3 kids, afford a house and run the kids through university.

Now 2 working sheep could not get a condo, got forbid kids.

Nobody is in any hurry to analyze why.

I would like to see Garth’s take on this.

Happy Easter, happy Pesach.

#105 Not So New guy on 04.19.19 at 9:42 am

#84 yorkville renter on 04.19.19 at 12:17 am

#61 – you have a business, you charge GST/HST. why would you not?
Annual revenue size doesn’t matter, and it’s a pass-through anyway

=====================

Because it is a zero rated setup

I won’t go deeper than that

#106 dharma bum on 04.19.19 at 10:00 am

#27 westcdn

They are building a community garden near my back yard – I hope to win the lottery to get a box.
——————————————————————–
It’s about time we heard from the hippie contingent.
I miss them.

Like, really, man.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CWxgfTMLtc0

#107 dharma bum on 04.19.19 at 10:12 am

#44 Notlegaladvice

Holding off on starting a family because the rental market is crazy high right now as well. 2500. Ouch! 400 bux to commute in. Ouch! 200 for insurance. 200 a month for gas. The expenses are endless. Yet ive managed to save. Over 200k all liquid. Patiently waiting for a crash of some sort.
——————————————————————–

$200K liquid assets?

Get outta Dodge.

Move to the Maritimes.

With that kind of scratch, you’ll be the KING out there.

#108 Ace Goodheart on 04.19.19 at 10:26 am

#113 Smoking Man on 04.18.19 at 1:48 pm
“Dear God

T2 giving away another 2.5 billion to other countries to fight climate change. Absolute theft..”

What we have here is the usual “elitist international society” type garbage going on.

T2 and trust fund kid friends have decided to funnel monies taken from Canadians as “carbon taxes” to international organizations that they are members of, or want to join.

This is the problem with the “globalisation” principle. In theory, it works and makes sense, but in practice, you get these groups of well connected millionaire and billionaires, and their families, who literally steal money from the middle class, and move it off shore to support their private interests.

While people in Ontario pay more money for home heating and gasoline, groceries, rent, transit, property taxes, and everything gets more expensive, the globalist, elite, international trust fund kid groups move billions of tax payer dollars into their private foundations, and build this elitist “climate change” empire at the expense of the common folk.

Watch T2 as he jumps on his private jet and flies off to another one of his billionaire friends’ private islands, spewing carbon as he goes. This guy does not care about his own carbon footprint. He is just vacuuming everyone else’s money so he can keep his membership in his own private, elitist organizations.

This is why people are turning to populism. Globalism has been taken over by the trust fund kids and the elites. It is inaccessible to those who actually pay for it, ie, you and me.

#109 Ronaldo on 04.19.19 at 10:29 am

#80 Smartalox on 04.18.19 at 11:39 pm
The Boomers want B20 repealed because it’s hurting the values of the homes that they own, and that they’re trying to sell to Millennials, so that they can finally retire. All this talk about single-detached real estate being a ‘rights’ is propagated by the owners, not the buyers.
——————————————————————
BS to all of that. Boomers could give two hoots about the B20. Boomers are in no rush to sell their homes. Fake news.

#110 Ace Goodheart on 04.19.19 at 10:29 am

How much CO2 does the Prime Minister’s private jet use for an average flight? As much as the entire carbon footprint of the average Canadian, for one year:

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/pm-s-use-of-jet-for-family-vacation-emitted-as-much-co2-as-average-canadian-per-year-1.3250397

These guys don’t care.

#111 The Great Gordonski on 04.19.19 at 10:33 am

Trudeau’s inompetant ex bus drivers are total losers when it comes to handing out money, a system rife with idiocy and fraud. Canada deserves better.

https://business.financialpost.com/technology/how-an-investment-in-a-botched-video-game-burned-a-government-startup-funding-agency-so-badly-it-changed-its-rules

#112 Reality is stark on 04.19.19 at 10:38 am

As usual we all miss the elephant in the room. The first step in the clawback of the OAS has already begun.
All higher income seniors have been given notice that an Old Age Security Recovery Tax has been enacted.
This is a precursor to the complete withdrawal of OAS to medium income seniors. As you foolishly debate about a dollar here and a dollar there our government is getting ready to remove $7200.00 per year of income to the average senior.
Deficits are insidious until they actually affect you. An inept irresponsible government will get your money eventually.
While you worry about stupid nickels the government is planning to rape you.
And you thought socialism was good for you.

#113 Ronaldo on 04.19.19 at 10:44 am

#102 Penny Henny on 04.19.19 at 9:06 am
Question for the bullion lickers.
I am looking to harvest some gains and take 5-10% of my portfolio and park it in gold for now. What would be the appropriate ETF for these funds?
————————————————————
Check out HEP.

#114 millmech on 04.19.19 at 10:50 am

#77 Chaddywack
The artisan beer is not too bad of a price if you use your brain. I went to Deadfrog Brewery after work yesterday for a beer. Looked at all the hipsters buying the $7-$9 beer plus tip which made it a $10 beer, noticed that the cans of beer(Green Magic IPA) in the cooler are $2.69 . Just as cold and just as good as the $10 glass of beer the ripped jeans crowd was sucking back and a quarter the price. Millenials like the privilege of paying $7 more to have their beer in a glass I guess.

#115 NoName on 04.19.19 at 10:54 am

#77 Chaddywack on 04.18.19 at 11:29 pm
Millennials piss me off.

Listen to me dude you need bit of an anger management here, i understand part of beeing pissed with millenials, but being sick of chraft brewing? Whats wrong with you?

Lately beast beers and whiskeys that i consumed were small batches chraft series bottled masterpieces of brewing art.

Press play! (End is very important 4min long)
https://youtu.be/xgmOUtZTg7c

#116 DON on 04.19.19 at 10:55 am

#100 oh bouy on 04.19.19 at 9:04 am

@#76 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.18.19 at 11:29 pm
@#58 oh bouy
“Remember we only get one shot at life.
there’s no magical utopia to go to when your times up”

+++++

I’m thinkin’ the Jehovah’s “sales pitch” is lost on you at the doorstep…….?

_________________________

came to my door the other day, first time in awhile.
only difference, this time they started reading scripture to me from their ipad.
*******************

When they come to my door (anyone religious group)…I just tell them in a respectful manner that I have a direct line to God.

Doesn’t everyone? No need for a middle man. They just seem to tax the situation.

#117 millmech on 04.19.19 at 10:58 am

As for the millennials waiting for boomers to die to buy their houses good luck with that. For a knowledge based generation they do not seem that quick off the mark, just go to realtor.ca and put in a price point of $200k and under and there are over 40,000 listings for sale. To sit in your parents basement and complain that you can not afford housing at their inflated wages is unbelievable, well maybe not if your into paying $7 markup to have your beer in a glass, I guess.

#118 45north on 04.19.19 at 11:06 am

Top 1% paid slightly more in taxes after Liberal changes, figures show

https://nationalpost.com/pmn/news-pmn/canada-news-pmn/top-1-paid-slightly-more-in-taxes-after-liberal-changes-figures-show

Jack Mintz, a tax policy expert at the University of Calgary, said it doesn’t look like the changes generated a lot more revenue from high earners after weighing other factors.
“When you actually look at the total increase in revenues in personal tax for 2017, compared to 2014, allowing for some normal growth in the economy and inflation, it looks to me that they didn’t get a lot of money out of the rate hike,” Mintz said.

Justin Trudeau said he would give the middle class a tax break and at the same time, make the rich pay more. Well true enough, he did give the middle class a tax break and the rich are paying more. But just a little more. Not enough to make up the difference. What a fake.

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/the-truth-about-justin-trudeaus-tax-cuts/

#119 Hippie Heaven on 04.19.19 at 11:14 am

#106 dharma bum on 04.19.19 at 10:00 am

It’s about time we heard from the hippie contingent.
I miss them.

If you want to see some take a trip to Cortes Island. Never seen so many VW microbusses. Some come with paisleys painted on them too. Beautiful place. Happy Easter to all.

#120 Dogman01 on 04.19.19 at 11:21 am

87 Stan Brooks on 04.19.19 at 12:34 am

Sheep and Sheep Farmers

The owners want to build one giant cheap labour camp by excessive loaning and then beating the sheep to death, milking and skinning it endless times.
The inability to breed any sheep here (due to the excessive cost at least according to the owners who become greedier by the day) and due to lowered quality of new sheep purchased might render calculations wrong.
Anyhow the remaining sheep will be milked to death with minimum food (stagnant wages), The younger sheep is doomed, the smarter sheep has left.
Don’t buy that every generation struggles.
————————————————————-
2 generations ago people with no college degree, stay at home spouse could have 3 kids, afford a house and run the kids through university.
Now 2 working sheep could not get a condo, god forbid kids.
You don’t have to pay for everyone, let them suffer.
Nobody will appreciate it and everyone will conclude that you are stupid.
Run as fast as you can.

———————————————————–

I have observed this in my Lifetime, the standard of living on this Farm is being crushed, the frog is slowly being boiled, the smart frogs need to take a leap.

The median per capita inflation adjusted standard of living is being collapsed. Climate Change looks to be the cover to make it feel virtuous in acceptance of this decline in standard of living. The means being inflation and wage stagnation (the yin and yang).

Canadians were better off 40 years ago.

#121 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.19.19 at 11:57 am

Read this if you really wanna know why gas prices are rising.
Or you can continue to blame Comrade Horgan.
https://www.richmond-news.com/lower-price-discounts-to-boost-q1-oil-profits-but-uncertainty-hangs-over-sector-1.23795546

#122 Headhunter on 04.19.19 at 11:57 am

I love cars had many muscle and sports cars through my life.. show and shines were always fun. No cars anymore but still love going to local meets.

You see 3 types of hair on all the car owners now.
Blue hair, grey hair, or no hair.

Shame who’s going to buy all these awesome pieces of engineering in their day? No one. If you have one now drive ‘er. Be $$$ well spent as be hardly any future buyers

#123 cowtown cowboy on 04.19.19 at 11:58 am

DELETED

#124 TurnerNation on 04.19.19 at 12:00 pm

Toronto’s next hot area? Income map. Try Long Branch:

https://i.redd.it/xisicselj7t21.jpg

A glorious weekend in Ontariowe. King Ford has blessed us with Buck A Beer. And from unknown provenance, perhaps made in his basement?

https://old.reddit.com/r/toronto/comments/beytir/buckabeer_fom_the_company_that_brought_you/

#125 DON on 04.19.19 at 12:21 pm

#106 dharma bum on 04.19.19 at 10:00 am

#27 westcdn

They are building a community garden near my back yard – I hope to win the lottery to get a box.
——————————————————————–
It’s about time we heard from the hippie contingent.
I miss them.

Like, really, man.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CWxgfTMLtc0
***************
What?

Growing food is a hippie thing?

I take it you represent the stupid contingent. Hopefully I misread your comment. If not…FFS.

#126 Damifino on 04.19.19 at 12:54 pm

Happy Friday before the first Sunday after the first full moon after the spring solstice!

(On the other hand though, isn’t this supposed to be a rather sombre day?)

#127 expat on 04.19.19 at 1:24 pm

Autos are the best indicator of economic health there is..

And it isn’t pretty for the automakers….

Also as gas hits 2 bucks this Summer (1.60ish in BC right now) that is about the worst tax there is.

It is immediate, it is scary, and people stop spending..

Which means recession is right here….. Middle class spending tightening is a guarantee of a recession.
2 buck gas guarantees tough times.

If you look at oil chart in 2007 – it was a leading indicator as it caused massive tightening in the middle class… Oil is 40% of that 140 buck price back then.

It wasn’t just CDO’s and property bubbles that caused the crash in 08.

It as oil as well.
140 to 30 in a few months as they system failed. It simply wiped out extra wallet dollars at the time..

These same conditions are lining up for the G7 Bubbles….

Oil will be key – watch it…

#128 Howard on 04.19.19 at 1:41 pm

#117 millmech on 04.19.19 at 10:58 am
As for the millennials waiting for boomers to die to buy their houses good luck with that. For a knowledge based generation they do not seem that quick off the mark, just go to realtor.ca and put in a price point of $200k and under and there are over 40,000 listings for sale. To sit in your parents basement and complain that you can not afford housing at their inflated wages is unbelievable, well maybe not if your into paying $7 markup to have your beer in a glass, I guess.

————————————————-

You figured out it! That extra $200 a year spent on good beer versus bad beer is totally what’s preventing young people from buying $1,000,000 townhomes that cost $50,000 in your day.

#129 other guy in Vancouver on 04.19.19 at 1:42 pm

#27 westcdn

They are building a community garden near my back yard – I hope to win the lottery to get a box.

You’re going to need the lottery to run it. I figure our few and tiny onions from our boxes cost $40000/kg.

#130 45north on 04.19.19 at 1:55 pm

TurnerNation: Toronto income map:

xisicselj7t21.jpg

Three Cities within Toronto is a study by Hulchanski, U of T. City Number 1 is a pre-dominantly high-income area of the City of Toronto in which neighbourhood incomes have risen a great deal relative to the Toronto Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) average since 1970; these neighbourhoods are generally found in the central city and close to the city’s subway lines.

City Number 2 is a mainly middle-income area, where neighbourhood incomes have remained fairly close to the CMA average since 1970.

City Number 3 is a generally low-income area of Toronto, in which neighbourhood incomes have fallen substantially over the past few decades compared to the CMA average; these neighbourhoods are found mostly in the northeastern and northwestern parts of Toronto.

It looks like the original study has morphed into http://www.neighbourhoodchange.ca. Anyways, interesting. It shows the middle-income areas are being squeezed out. There’s more high-income areas and more low-income areas but less middle-income areas.

I went to Melody Road Public School, in North York. The Toronto income map, shows that in 1980, it was middle-income. Now it’s low-income. I don’t think of it as low-income. I don’t think it is.

#131 tccontrarian on 04.19.19 at 2:28 pm

#104 akashic record on 04.19.19 at 9:23 am

#88 Stan Brooks

2 generations ago people with no college degree, stay at home spouse could have 3 kids, afford a house and run the kids through university.

Now 2 working sheep could not get a condo, got forbid kids.

Nobody is in any hurry to analyze why.

I would like to see Garth’s take on this.

Happy Easter, happy Pesach.
////////////////

I’ve posted links before – basically, since 1971 when Nixon severed paper money (USD) to anything physical (ie. Gold), inflation has increased faster than wage growth. The ‘hidden tax’, it’s known as.
Money is now ‘debt’ (bonds), and Governments like it that way since they can create endless amounts of it. But the gig will be up soon…watch for it.

TCC

Non sequitur. Nothing to do with gold. – Garth

#132 Figure it Out on 04.19.19 at 2:31 pm

“I went to Melody Road Public School, in North York. The Toronto income map, shows that in 1980, it was middle-income. Now it’s low-income. I don’t think of it as low-income. I don’t think it is.”

Ststscan says it has the 13th lowest average household income of Toronto’s 100 residential FSAs (i.e. neighbourhoods by first three characters of postal code).

#133 tccontrarian on 04.19.19 at 2:32 pm

@ Penny Henny –

Regarding your question on bullion:

I use these ETFs (equity, not commodity):

TSX

-XGD
-ZJG

NYSE

GDXJ/GDX/SIL/SILJ

All are in buying territory right now – in fact I was adding the last couple days as well!

TCC

#134 akashic record on 04.19.19 at 4:55 pm

#131 tccontrarian on 04.19.19 at 2:28 pm
#104 akashic record on 04.19.19 at 9:23 am
#88 Stan Brooks

2 generations ago people with no college degree, stay at home spouse could have 3 kids, afford a house and run the kids through university.

Now 2 working sheep could not get a condo, got forbid kids.

Nobody is in any hurry to analyze why.

I would like to see Garth’s take on this.

////////////////

I’ve posted links before – basically, since 1971 when Nixon severed paper money (USD) to anything physical (ie. Gold), inflation has increased faster than wage growth. The ‘hidden tax’, it’s known as.
Money is now ‘debt’ (bonds), and Governments like it that way since they can create endless amounts of it. But the gig will be up soon…watch for it.

TCC

Non sequitur. Nothing to do with gold. – Garth

Not gold that is.
What does have to do with it then?

#135 Tony on 04.19.19 at 6:52 pm

Re: #1 Jimmy on 04.18.19 at 4:40 pm

Jimmy nailed it if its the same Jimmy… first.