The stress mess

Once the smoke clears over Edmonton and Calgary it should be evident to the T2 gang that they’re in trouble. Deplorables running Owetario and the oilfields. Four provinces suing over the carbon grab. Jody and Jane refusing to shut up and go away, like proper ladies. Worrisome poll numbers, even out of the Maritmies where every seat went beet red last time. And, of course, a nation of house-horny and unsated moisters. They already got the weed. So why endure more Justin?

Meanwhile the March 19th budget was a bust. Nobody cares about the fatter RRSP  homebuyer limit since the kids don’t have seventy grand in their retirement plans. And the shared-equity mortgage, as innovative as it may be, won’t start until September. Not soon enough, given a federal election come October.

So, the heat’s on the feds to review the stress test. It’s now the most fundamental issue for the core Liberal vote. And while B-20 (the technical term for the test) comes under the auspices of the bank regulator, OSFI, it’s not immune to political pressure. And that pressure is mounting.

As you know, the industry has been squawking about this for months. Realtors are apoplectic. Get rid of it, TREB says, and bring back 30-year mortgages at the same time. Canada’s biggest homebuildier (Mattamy) says Millennials have been punished unduly by the test. “It’s time,” the company’s boss says simply, “for the test to go away.”

Now one of the highest-profile bank economists is also dumping on B-20, saying between $13 billion and $15 billion in new mortgages were not taken out by frothy little first-timers as a result of the stress test. This has resulted in a sales decline impacting major markets and directly responsible for a drop in prices (oh, the horror…). BC is ground zero.

“B.C. home sales continue to be adversely impacted by federal mortgage policy,” says the voice of the province’s newly-unemployed realtors. “The erosion of affordability caused by the B-20 stress test has created near recession-level housing demand despite the province boasting the lowest unemployment rates in a decade.”

As you might have heard, things have cratered in Vancouver, where the sales-to-listings ratio for detached homes is in single digits. More tumbles in the Fraser Valley, on the Island, in the Kootenays and up the Okanagan. In the GTA, it’s a sea of flatness. Prices are down 20% from the peak and this spring market has been tepid. Given sub-3% mortgage rates plus a hundred thousand new residents a year, this is utterly abnormal. And now CIBC’s rockstar economist Benny Tal is lining up with the stress test firing squad.

A new report says B-20 arrived at precisely the wrong moment, when the residential real estate market was buckling under its own inflated weight. The decline in new originations was propelled lower, with Tal figuring at least half the decline was the direct result of the stress test. During 2018 the value of new mortgages issued fell a withering $25 billion from the previous year – which is why you’ve been reading a lot lately about people thinking they should short the banks. (They shouldn’t.)

The biggest impact of the test, adds Tal, has been to boot people out of the market, rather than make them buy a cheaper house. So nationally sales have declined 5%, with most of that happening in BC and the GTA.

Because real estate prices are sticky and vendors would rather wait than sell for a discount, there’s a standoff between moisters who can’t borrow what they want and owners who won’t sell for less. Activity crashes. But values do not. Says CREA’s economist: “Local market trends are largely in a holding pattern. While the mortgage stress test has made access to home financing more challenging, the good news is that continuing job growth remains supportive for housing demand and should eventually translate into stronger home sales activity pending a reduction in household indebtedness.”

But job growth has now slowed. And households are more indebted than six months ago, not less. Logic dictates the stress test is working – putting the brakes on an inflated, speculative, unhealthy, bloated gasbag of a housing market, eliminating those who can’t afford to buy, and eventually restoring affordability. After all, with 20% less credit and $15 billion not being loaned, the thing will eventually shudder to a halt. Houses will be homes, not investment strategies. Families can afford them without lifetime servitude.

But, alas, there’s one big, gnarly, fuzzy fly in the ointment. It’s called politics. So if Alberta goes all Silverado on us tonight (Jason Kenney says his peeps should be B-20 exempt) the odds of Ottawa caving on the stress test rise.

Someday we’ll elect people with a long-term vision, dedicated to the public interest.

In the meantime, duck.

197 comments ↓

#1 Tater on 04.16.19 at 4:29 pm

Benny’s a nice man, but hes not the most independent thinker out there. Jeff Rubin was, and look where that got him.

#2 Sovavia on 04.16.19 at 4:32 pm

(1) It looks like XEG.TO (CA energy ETF) could outperform XLE (US energy ETF) in the years ahead.

(2) A political regime based upon the public interest is wishful thinking at best (a red Tory delusion); a fairer balance of interests is coming.

(3) What is for sure is that the voters in Alberta had a stark choice.

#3 Silent Observer on 04.16.19 at 4:39 pm

This defies every sense of logic, housing has rocketed far beyond its true value due to hype and emotional buying. We finally implemented some tools to “correct” this phenomena and it’s just starting to show signs of correction, which of course could only happen if sales slump and buyers sit. But what do our hubris elected representatives do? Thats right, load up the syringe Sparky and find a vein because the Pusher-man has more for ya.

Darwin would be so proud.

#4 westcdn on 04.16.19 at 4:42 pm

I voted. I was surprised by the number of people older than me – not good for NDP in my riding.

#5 NotLegalAdvice on 04.16.19 at 4:50 pm

After all, with 20% less credit and $15 billion not being loaned, the thing will eventually shudder to a halt. Houses will be homes, not investment strategies. Families can afford them without lifetime servitude. – GT
_________________________________________

I love this paragraph. So true. Millennials want homes, not investments. It’s the greedy Generation X’s that have been buying multiple properties and holding onto them because they are greedy!! Sell Sell Sell and let us buy!

#6 The Wet One on 04.16.19 at 4:52 pm

I thought it was Ontari-owe.

Guess not.

So many neologisms these days. It’s hard to keep up.

#7 the ryguy - In cabo on 04.16.19 at 4:52 pm

Im all for making fun of Millennials..hell I am one and I cant stand most of them. That being said..IF the mills are dumb enough to vote Liberal because of B-20..they really do deserve the scorn they would receive.

Hey Mills, you really want to stick it to the boomers? DON’T buy their wildy inflated houses..wait it out.

“ya but renting sucks”.. So do property taxes, transfer taxes, busted pipes, broken windows, laying sod etc etc. Grass ain’t always greener kiddies.

#8 expat on 04.16.19 at 5:03 pm

B20 is a pimple on the butt of a fly compared the most important issue.. Capital Flows…..

How HOT Chinese money has left the building and moved to the USA and Eastern Canada…

My sister, a RE agent in Halifax Area, says Foreign and Domestic Chinese Money is everywhere there scooping up spec property and land. If they don’t advertise in Mandarin their competitors who do get the sale….

Sound Familiar? 3/4 of all her sales are to Chinese hot money right now..

Great and powerful capital flows are the true indicator – not some silly sweaty-palmed bureaucrat program which stops the deadbeats from buying 700K houses on 50K a year…

BTW Eisman’s short call on the banks is gathering steam. CIBC analyst on BNN just said doomsday clock is ticking closer to midnight for our lovely banks that everyone say are untouchable…. He says it isn’t as bad as Eisman makes out…..

I remember “The Bernank” that fateful day in May in 07….

“”Subprime Mortgage Woes Won’t Seriously Hurt Economy””

Oh yes I remember it well – the CNBC crowd back then slobbered over his words saying of course there is no danger…..

Six months later in the Fall of 2008 – RBC couldn’t figure out if I could cash their money market fund……. They did – but boy that was a sweaty 3 hours wait for a call back to say it was OK to do so…..

Everyone says it wont happen here…..

It really means it will –

Everyone and I mean everyone is on one side of the Titanic…. No way the banks will have a “Bernank Moment” you say….

IMHO….. they will……

#9 DM in C on 04.16.19 at 5:05 pm

“It’s the greedy Generation X’s that have been buying multiple properties and holding onto them because they are greedy!!”

I think you mean boomers. GenX gets ignored. There’s not enough of us to make any difference to the market.

#10 Dyslexic Smoking Man on 04.16.19 at 5:18 pm

Duck is an understatement. Dig a deep hole and climb in with anything of value.
Once the slaughter of the dippers in Alberta becomes official tomorrow expect the T2 regime the play the last card in the deck.

They will go to war with Trump and try to muster the anti trump sentiment, damn the Canadian economy.

They are hell bent on clutching to power no matter the consequence to the Canadian Economy.

That’s why Freeland did a deal with Germany, France the last pillars standing of the failed one world govt experiment. The plan, go after the Orange Man

Load up on USD cash and assets.

Dr. Smoking Man
Ph.D. Herdonomics.

#11 Yukon Elvis on 04.16.19 at 5:27 pm

And while B-20 (the technical term for the test) comes under the auspices of the bank regulator, OSFI, it’s not immune to political pressure. And that pressure is mounting.
……………………………….

Told ya. So did many others. Changed or gone with the stroke of a political pen. And you scoffed…

Nah, I just thought there was a little more integrity in the system. – Garth

#12 Stan Brooks on 04.16.19 at 5:27 pm

#8 expat on 04.16.19 at 5:03 pm

Everyone and I mean everyone is on one side of the Titanic…. No way the banks will have a “Bernanke Moment” you say….

IMHO….. they will…

Not everyone. Smart people left long time ago and took their money with them.

Remembering Toronto from 20 years ago.
The economy was much stronger, the interest rates were 4-6 %, a SFH in a very nice area was 250-270 k, salaries were not much different in terms of net take home pay.

No land transfer taxes and bidding wars crap, required down-payment for a house was 25 %.

It is absolutely mind boggling what happened since but I won’t bet a flying fart on the future of this place inhibited by outright idiots at best, mental basket cuckoo’s cases at worse.

Banks are absolute parasites backed by corrupted government and we are up to the point where 2 maxed CPPs and old age pensions are not enough for the rent + utilities on a one bedroom condo in GTA.

The lack of understanding and outright rejection of the horrific inflation is absolutely idiotic.

I absolutely would like to see CMHC insurance cancelled, ultra subprime mortgages moved back to the balance sheets of the banks and removal of that imbecile from BoC with rates normalization to where it makes sence – 6-8 % +.

Of course it won’t happen in this mental institution so you better pick a better place to live, this one is done, over, caput.

#13 Dolce Vita on 04.16.19 at 5:31 pm

The rates are again at rock bottom lows and THEY THINK a few rules changes to B20 will change things up for the better?

The Realtors and Banks are being STUPID.

CANADIAN CONSUMER’S HAVE DECIDED TO DRASTICALLY CUT SPENDING and some rule changes, or 100 year amortizations for that matter, are not going to change their minds.

We are headed for a SLOW DOWN at best, a RECESSION most likely.

Yet another case in point, look at the state of Canadian Manufacturing, Feb. 2019 report from StatCan.

Sample ditties:

-Sales down in 6 Provinces MoM, ON & SK lead.
-Inventories drastically on the rise, past 2 years.
-Capacity utilization rates down, past 2 years.
-Unfilled orders declining, past 2 years.
-Wood and Motor Vehicle sales down MoM…

Slow Down at best 2 YEARS IN THE MAKING from today’s Manufacturing Report.

NEVER SAY you did not see “it” coming.

Last month’s +GDP, a last gasp blip massaged by StatCan Seasonal Adjusting.

——————————————————————

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/190416/dq190416a-eng.htm

#14 renter in Surrey on 04.16.19 at 5:32 pm

Garth, are you saying RE prices will soon go up again?

#15 HT on 04.16.19 at 5:35 pm

There is no problem in the BC RE market. It’s a matter of finding the new equilibrium pricing. The sales volume crash is a necessary step in the process. Soon, sellers must slash prices, thus creating affordability.

It’s not an ideal situation, but we are currently experience more cure than ailment. The problem was the run up to froth level pricing, which locals could not afford. Unsustainable. Would realtors tell you this though? Of course not!

#16 yorkville renter on 04.16.19 at 5:36 pm

B20 is doing what it’s supposed to do… how about we eliminate it and raise rates 2% instead? I didnt think so.

launching it took leadership… keeping it will take courage, I’m not hopeful

#17 Stan Brooks on 04.16.19 at 5:36 pm

#13 Dolce Vita on 04.16.19 at 5:31 pm

The banks and the real estate mafia has no clue of what real economy is.

Do you know how cancer works? The parasite/cancer cells occupy the blood/money stream and live nothing to the normal cells, so all organ’s healthy cells die.

And the idiots in power and at BoC administer more sweets/sugar in a hope that something will be passed to the healthy cells.

Just pull the fuc..ing plug and let that corpse decompose.

#18 Evangeline on 04.16.19 at 5:38 pm

#10 Smoking Man “The plan, go after the Orange Man”

codename: “orangemanbad”

#19 MF on 04.16.19 at 5:40 pm

“So, the heat’s on the feds to review the stress test. It’s now the most fundamental issue for the core Liberal vote.”

-The core voter for the Libs is a millennial who cannot afford anything and smokes weed. Why would they want the stress test gone and prices rising further out of reach?

Like you said, weed is here already. Dumb move, of course, but that was all the garden variety T2 voter was thinking about.

MF

#20 Dolce Vita on 04.16.19 at 5:41 pm

I really get tired of StatCan and their ARIMA Seasonally Adjusted hogwash, massaged numbers and in the end lying to the Canadian people.

Jan. GDP was +0.3% = 3.6% annualized = ECONOMIC BOOM.

Ask yourselves this:

Did anyone, including you My Liege, “experience” that Economic Boom in January?

…ya, thought so.

#21 Diharv on 04.16.19 at 5:42 pm

Keep the B20 otherwise what is going to save the house horny moisters from themselves? Just look at who is doing all the squawking about it, the ones who stand to profit the most from its demise . Nuff said.

#22 Bobs ur uncle on 04.16.19 at 5:43 pm

If there’s a slowdown, someone forget to tell us in the west Kootenay. Just as crazy as last spring and prices are even higher. Entry-level listings disappearing within a week. I’d like to believe that sanity would prevail, but I think here it’s a different story for now. Maybe due to no empty home tax.

It will be completely bonkers if B20 goes away.

#23 When the Whip Comes Down on 04.16.19 at 5:46 pm

B20 is likely not to go away – yet. Tal says why is +2 pct the number? So if they do anything prior to election i would expect only some give in the premium causing “the stress”.

#24 PeterfromCalgary on 04.16.19 at 5:48 pm

Jason Kenney will only asks Ottawa to remove the stress test for Alberta. Housing prices here have not gone up in almost a decade so I think that makes sense.

If Trudeau-Lavalin removes the stress test for the whole country including the Vancouver area and GTA that is his stupidity and not Jason’s fault.

The best thing that could happen to this country is for voters to give Trudeau and his masters at SNC-Lavalin the boot. Andrew Scheer is much more likely to get pipelines built and that will create a more balanced economy. With a more balance economy fewer people will be forced to move to Toronto and Vancouver because their will be good jobs in other parts of the country. This should help with housing affordability in those cities.

#25 MF on 04.16.19 at 5:48 pm

#9 DM in C on 04.16.19 at 5:05 pm

Absolutely not. Gen x, from what I have witnessed, is the most house horny/delusional of all.

1) graduated before 2008
2) entered the workforce before 2008
3) purchased property before 2008

This demographic was born on third base but thinks it hit a triple when it comes to real estate.

MF

#26 Boombust on 04.16.19 at 5:49 pm

I hope OSFI’s Jeremy Rudin sticks to his guns and leaves the stress test the way it is.

As for Benjamin Tal; who cares? Since when should Canadians “trust” a bank economist (as you have often said in the past)?

#27 Dolce Vita on 04.16.19 at 5:50 pm

#17 Stan Brooks

Stan, I can’t prove it but I’m willing to go out on a limb and say that StatCan’s “Political Masters” are urging it to spin as much as they can to make things, no matter how bad, positive.

I’m all for optimism but that can never be allowed to trump the TRUTH and WORSE, lie to the Canadian people.

My theory is that Canadian Consumer’s is a lot smarter than Gov. gives them credit.

As for MR. MARKET, stick with Uncle Sam I say – there’s an election there next year, nothing will happen until after that.

As for Mr. Beaver Market, good luck…your Dominatrix Canadian Consumer has spoken.

#28 Nonplused on 04.16.19 at 5:53 pm

Where are we going to find these people with a long-term vision, dedicated to the public interest? Where are we going to find anyone who even knows what the public interest is? Is there even such a thing? Remember, Notely and Trudeau both talk about their carbon taxes as being in the public interest. I don’t know about you, but increased taxation is not in my interest, nor that of anyone I know. I’ll be happy to see both those bums gone.

And besides, a little known fact is that Trump has already solved climate change, if there be such a thing. Well, he didn’t do it, but his administration did. They rescinded some regulations that were preventing the testing of new Gen IV nuclear reactors, so that work can finally start moving forward. These are reactors that are designed so the can’t melt down no matter what happens, and can actually use nuclear waste as part of their fuel supply. They have been on the drawing boards for years but development, testing in particular, has been hampered by regulation.

One of the reasons the current designs of exploding Three Mile Island / Fukashima style reactors were originally built is because electricity was a byproduct, the main product they wanted was plutonium for the doomsday nuclear arsenal they were building. (Plutonium is only found in nature in trace amounts because it decays much faster than uranium, which is a good thing because otherwise it would kill everything that went near it.) But we’ve got enough of that now so we can move on to reactors that are designed primarily to produce electricity. Other potential uses include water desalination and steam production for industrial uses. Other countries, specifically China, are already working on it.

Gen IV is a much better long term vision than carbon taxes, because it promises to dramatically reduce carbon emissions while at the same time providing the energy we need to run a modern 24/7 energy intensive economy. That is, if they can get it to work. The people working on it say they can. They all have fancy Ph.D’s and work at universities.

Most successful presidency ever. Who knew that all we needed is someone who isn’t smart enough to think himself into some Ph.D level liberal arts style abstractions and impossibilities.

#29 Andrewski on 04.16.19 at 5:55 pm

Is that a photo of Jack Dorsey losing his $hit while thinking how his Twitter platform enabled DJT to cause others to lose their $hit?!

#30 IHCTD9 on 04.16.19 at 5:55 pm

#7 the ryguy – In cabo on 04.16.19 at 4:52 pm
Im all for making fun of Millennials..hell I am one and I cant stand most of them. That being said..IF the mills are dumb enough to vote Liberal because of B-20..they really do deserve the scorn they would receive.

Hey Mills, you really want to stick it to the boomers? DON’T buy their wildy inflated houses..wait it out.

“ya but renting sucks”.. So do property taxes, transfer taxes, busted pipes, broken windows, laying sod etc etc. Grass ain’t always greener kiddies
——-

Wise beyond your years.

I just spent 400.00 on a nail gun, 7200 coil nails, pneumatic oil, and a swivel fitting. Soon, I’ll be dumping another grand or so on some nice Owens Corning fibreglass laminated shingles. Then I’ll be shovelling off the roof. Then hauling approx. 3000 lbs. worth of said shingles up a ladder on my shoulder, 75 lbs at a time (apparently this is illegal now, so I’m told). Then I’ll be nailing all 1200 of them down, 4 nails each.

Fun?

#31 Yukon Elvis on 04.16.19 at 5:56 pm

Nah, I just thought there was a little more integrity in the system. – Garth
…………………………..

We lost that a long time ago. And it is probably not coming back. Like virginity. It is about buying votes now. Buy the sucker votes with their own money. Scary.

#32 The Real Mark on 04.16.19 at 6:03 pm

The housing industry is in significant overcapacity. Homelessness has basically been eradicated. Canadian home ownership ratios are at record levels. There is no supply problem. If anything, the problem is the excessively high prices. Constraining credit, to wipe the “landlord families” out (basically speculators who, since the 1990s, have been pac-manning RE on credit, using leveraged gains to take out even more credit to the point where they own 20-30 properties amongst their extended families), is the correct policy response.

Relaxing stress tests would be a travesty. Loosening credit, similarily, would accomplish nothing. The RE supply side should realize the jig is up, and start liquidating. There is little to nothing the government can do to reflate a well-past-the-peak RE market in stagnation since its 2013 peak.

On that note, great Ross Kay yesterday on Howestreet/TalkDigitalNetwork. Highly recommended listening.

#33 Stan Brooks on 04.16.19 at 6:10 pm

The option of not having to work for horse face french villa guy and the political joke (the stupid-er ever) duck socks PM … priceless.

There is something money can’t buy.
For everything else there is Air Canada and one way ticket out.

#34 Madcat on 04.16.19 at 6:20 pm

Evan Siddall‏ Verified account @ewsiddall Feb 7:

‘Our research suggests that stress tests have reduced the average equilibrium national house price by 3.4% (7.9% and 5.3% respectively for Vancouver and Toronto). Lower prices and less debt helps FTHBs.’

17 replies 27 retweets 135 likes

Superintendent of Financial Institutions Verified account @OSFICanada Feb 5:

‘Rogers: “The rising cost of home ownership in Canada is a problem. But the answer to this important problem… cannot be more consumer debt, fueled by lower underwriting standards.”

1 reply 10 retweets 27 likes

Direct message Superintendent of Financial Institutions‏
Verified account @OSFICanada Feb 5:

‘Rogers: “The stress test ensures a borrower does not stretch their borrowing capacity to its maximum. It is prudent to have a buffer for the banks and the borrowers.”

3 replies 3 retweets 11 likes

Superintendent of Financial Institutions Verified account @OSFICanada Feb 5

‘Rogers: “B-20 is about ensuring that mortgage underwriting at Canadian banks remains strong.”‘

#35 the ryguy - In cabo on 04.16.19 at 6:26 pm

#30 IHCTD9 on 04.16.19 at 5:55 pm
——————————————

Just out of curiosity..did you get a quote or two to have it done? Wondering what that chore would cost now.

#36 Chopping Broccoli on 04.16.19 at 6:26 pm

B20 and 420 Mr. Dressups legacy.
T2 your an idiot sock wearing puppet preaching pipeline purchasing trader that’s destroyed the Canadian economy !

#37 Qualcomm Rocks on 04.16.19 at 6:28 pm

Qualcomm is going through the roof! Thx apple for settling! Should I sell all my shares garth?

#38 Asterix1 on 04.16.19 at 6:28 pm

Why would anyone listen to a bank economist (and TREB) when it comes to anything related to B-20?

OSFI did this to protect the lenders from themselves!

If T2 gets rid of B20, I cannot imagine that the average Joe will rejoice.

#39 AGuyInVancouver on 04.16.19 at 6:29 pm

#15 HT on 04.16.19 at 5:35 pm
There is no problem in the BC RE market. It’s a matter of finding the new equilibrium pricing. The sales volume crash is a necessary step in the process. Soon, sellers must slash prices, thus creating affordability.

It’s not an ideal situation, but we are currently experience more cure than ailment. The problem was the run up to froth level pricing, which locals could not afford. Unsustainable. Would realtors tell you this though? Of course not!
_ _ _
Exactly, chart after chart shows how detached from local incomes Vancouver housing had become. A bust is necessary to restore sanity to the market.

And why does little Jason Kenney want to remove B20 anyway? AB still has the nation’s highest median income paired with cheap housing prices. If you’re out of job eliminating B20 isn’t going to make Benny Tal and CIBC more likely to give you a mortgage.

This is more about CIBC being concerned about losing business to shadow lenders, not any concern for frustrated homebuyers. But they are correct in the belief that private lenders should be forced to follow the same regs as banks. Level playing field and all that.

#40 Wasted Canadian Generation on 04.16.19 at 6:30 pm

It didn’t have to turn out this way.

“We are in danger of destroying ourselves by our greed and stupidity…” -Stephen Hawking

#41 Penny Henny on 04.16.19 at 6:36 pm

#17 Stan Brooks on 04.16.19 at 5:36 pm

Do you know how cancer works? The parasite/cancer cells occupy the blood/money stream and live nothing to the normal cells, so all organ’s healthy cells die.
/////////////////

The only thing more depressing than Stan Brooks is Stan Brooks talking about cancer.
Come to think of it Stan Brooks is a cancer

#42 Dolce Vita on 04.16.19 at 6:41 pm

And no, on the Canadian Consumer spending a LOT LESS I am not on 420. NOTE PEOPLE that the Canadian MSM nor StatCan went out of their way to let you know the DISMAL data.

AND GARTH, you know that I love you BUT not even you can do your Unsinkable routine with what follows (Unsinkable as in a resurrect Lazarus).

BELOW, the Unadjusted StatCan Retail trade sales from SEPTEMBER 2018 –> JANUARY 2019 (link below, as usual learn to Add/Remove data and Apply on your own).

The %’s do the numbers no justice. For example Retail Trade Overall (x 1000):

Sept. 2018 = $50,786,302
Jan. 2019 = $42,043,990

Almost all of the %’s below based on numbers that in StatCan’s own words “data quality: excellent”.

Let me start with: ANYONE SEE THE JAN. 2019 +0.3% GDP ECONOMIC BOOM BELOW? Read it and weep people.

Retail trade (Overall), Major Categories Follow
-17.2%

Motor vehicle and parts dealers
-23.6%
Furniture and home furnishings stores
-17.4%
Electronics and appliance stores
-25.9%
Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers
-30.2%
Food and beverage stores
-8.0%
Supermarkets and other grocery (except convenience) stores
-2.7%
Convenience stores
-14.4%
Health and personal care stores (as always, “it is better to look good, than to feel good”)
+2.9%
Gasoline stations
-16.7%
Clothing and clothing accessories stores
-27.9%
Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores
-18.6%
General merchandise stores
-17.2%
Miscellaneous store retailers
-16.4%

———————————————————–

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/cv.action?pid=2010000801

#43 Michael Gamecocke on 04.16.19 at 6:47 pm

Gas to $2.00 for Vancouver overnight? Should help with the carbon emissions. Enjoy your cleaner air Vancouver and Premier Horgan!

#44 Alberta Ed on 04.16.19 at 6:50 pm

Housing prices are also inflated by ridiculously high administration costs (municipal bureaucracies are not known for efficiency) and current medieval hammer & saw construction methods. Huge savings could be achieved by adopting innovations such as structural insulated panels, passive solar heating, better insulated windows and other innovations (assuming developers don’t just hoover them into their own pockets).

#45 Dolce Vita on 04.16.19 at 6:52 pm

#41 Penny Henny

As a casual observer:

Ouch.

And you were displeased about the “E” word.

#46 CONservatives are fiscally irresponsible SHYSTERS on 04.16.19 at 6:53 pm

CONservatives are the reason why we have a housing bubble in the first place. They want to risk taxpayers money via CMHC to inflate the RE market while enriching thebmost lazy SHYSTERS in Canada (realtors and mortgage brokers). The CONs always kick and scream about government interference and yet not one word about CMHC interference in the free market. Why its corporate welfare for the banks and lenders to make risky loans backed by taxpayers. Conservatives are lazy SHYSTERS. CONservatives are a cancer on the free markets . CONservatives hate and I mean HATE free and open markets. I hate cons

#47 Steven Rowlandson on 04.16.19 at 6:54 pm

“Someday we’ll elect people with a long-term vision, dedicated to the public interest.”

If it happens it will be followed by a no confidence vote and then a election. Then the big borrowers and spenders will be back and in charge. The past is prologue.

#48 The Real Mark on 04.16.19 at 6:56 pm

“Housing prices are also inflated by ridiculously high administration costs (municipal bureaucracies are not known for efficiency) and current medieval hammer & saw construction methods.”

Guess you haven’t been to a modern construction site. Where lots of stuff is built in factories and then delivered right to the site by trucks, where its installed.

They manage to build houses quite nicely in the US for $100/square foot or less. A little more for premium stuff. Meanwhile in Canada… Sure, its a little more expensive to build in Canada, due to less efficient supply chains, but the big elephant in the room is that the huge abundance of subprime credit has allowed for excess profitability of everyone in the RE supply chain. The cost of new construction in Canada is definitely *not* the cause of the housing bubble as we see in the contemporary sense. Not since we have near tear-downs going for top dollar.

#49 Rexx Rock on 04.16.19 at 7:05 pm

#!2 Stan Brook

The system is broken and you are right it can’t be fixed.Only high income wage earners will be able to afford cities like Toronto,Vancouver and Victoria.Yes the over all inflation is high and nobody believes that it is 2%.Its quite comical but expect some wild policies coming foward.Kenny will win but his hands are tied and eventually bow down to T2.

#50 CONservatives are fiscally irresponsible SHYSTERS on 04.16.19 at 7:07 pm

Look at all the LAZY CONservative realtors and mortgage brokers who are angry that T2 is helping Millennials afford RE again. The CONservative SHYSTERS are greedy evil people who think about themselves at the expense of everyone. Why dont CONs scream for no B20 and No CMHC? Of course if there was no CMHC the banks would make their own stress test which would be harder then B20. Banks wouldnt lend in todays market at low interest rates to risky borrowers without CMHC. B20 protects taxpayers from lenders making risky loans.

#51 expat on 04.16.19 at 7:07 pm

#46 CONservatives are fiscally irresponsible SHYSTERS on

What is it like working in a Liberal Call Centre in Ottawa on tax payer dimes???

It used to be the CRA call centre but I know most of you are Liberals and prefer outbound calls and Internet chat boards typing as opposed to answering those nuisance TAx calls..

Just saying

You should get back to work now…

#52 cto on 04.16.19 at 7:07 pm

#1 Tater on 04.16.19 at 4:29 pm
“Benny’s a nice man, but hes not the most independent thinker out there. Jeff Rubin was, and look where that got him.”

Nice man or not,,,i think Benny is in it for Benny and Benny only, no matter what the consequences for the rest of us.

#53 Drill Baby Drill on 04.16.19 at 7:08 pm

Alberta after tonight will be finally fighting back. Big Time. We have had 4 yrs of Notley being ga ga eyes over Selfie Boy. BC and Ottawa are going to be made to feel very uncomfortable over the next several months.

#54 JSS on 04.16.19 at 7:10 pm

No government will return Alberta to the way it was. Natural gas prices fell over a decade ago. They are not coming back. The US does not need canadian oil as much as a decade ago. That is just reality.

#55 expat on 04.16.19 at 7:11 pm

Trudeau is doing a town hall on Alberta Election night.

You can’t bottle stupid

#56 CROOKED JASON KENNEY - LOCK HIM UP!! on 04.16.19 at 7:11 pm

Albertans better make the right choice today.

Elect a fraudster and the province will be done like dinner.

#57 Dutch Roofers on 04.16.19 at 7:12 pm

#30 IHCTD9 on 04.16.19 at 5:55 pm

#7 the ryguy – In cabo on 04.16.19 at 4:52 pm
Im all for making fun of Millennials..hell I am one and I cant stand most of them. That being said..IF the mills are dumb enough to vote Liberal because of B-20..they really do deserve the scorn they would receive.

Hey Mills, you really want to stick it to the boomers? DON’T buy their wildy inflated houses..wait it out.

“ya but renting sucks”.. So do property taxes, transfer taxes, busted pipes, broken windows, laying sod etc etc. Grass ain’t always greener kiddies
——-

Wise beyond your years.

I just spent 400.00 on a nail gun, 7200 coil nails, pneumatic oil, and a swivel fitting. Soon, I’ll be dumping another grand or so on some nice Owens Corning fibreglass laminated shingles. Then I’ll be shovelling off the roof. Then hauling approx. 3000 lbs. worth of said shingles up a ladder on my shoulder, 75 lbs at a time (apparently this is illegal now, so I’m told). Then I’ll be nailing all 1200 of them down, 4 nails each.

Fun?

Surely an IHCTD9 dude would have rigged up a motorized shingles hoist……I am deeply saddened.

#58 Dolce Vita on 04.16.19 at 7:15 pm

In regards to my #42 Dolce Vita RETAIL SALES post all I can say is this, as usual long winded:

30% of Canadians are debt free.

Leap of faith use of numbers, 70% of Canadians are home owners; thus:

The 21% of you out there that own a home and are debt free*, time to BUCK UP and save 60% to 65% of Canadian GDP (a.k.a., CONSUMER SPENDING).

*On a secondary but less important note, when you are done resurrecting Lazarus in Canada, Italia’s GDP already moribund so come visit and spend your debt free home owning big CANADIAN $$$ in Italia.

You won’t regret it (the land of 100’s of Blue Flag Beaches you can also swim at plus No GMO, No Steroid and No Antibiotic to drop a horse FOOD…and the espresso and booze aren’t bad either as are the attractions).

————————————–

No Buonanotte & Ciao d'[*]Italia for me, staying up late (4 AM local time, 1:13 AM as of now) to watch the AB election results and see how my fellow country-persons voted (country-persons as in Kenney will probably secede if he does not get his way & the Trudeau reference, Capt. Obvious).

#59 catralph on 04.16.19 at 7:16 pm

Surprise, surprise. Developers and lenders want the stress test dumped in a hypocritical claim that it is all about helping people buy a home not their profits. Give me a break.

#60 dr talc on 04.16.19 at 7:17 pm

If you have rules made by Jeremy Rudin, independent of banks and government, you have no government

#61 Lessons Learned on 04.16.19 at 7:18 pm

Here are some lessons I recently learned about offers in Ottawa – the epicenter of the new rising bubble after bigger cities slowed down.
I felt I had to buy a house at this time. I have been renting houses and this is the second time in 5 years that the owner has decided to sell. Not wanting to go through people going through my home, I started looking.
What I found inside the city were tiny homes that people were “staging”. Staging means taking all the furniture out and removing walls so people think the place is bigger than the 950 square feet it is.
1. Always figure out the price per square foot. You are paying for space for your stuff and this is how the builders charge.
You can quickly get this figure by reading the listing. If the realtor says a room is 12 by 10, it is 120 square feet. Add the rooms up and you will be shocked at what you are paying.
2. Over and over the realtors on the radio (there are 2 who have hour-long weekly advertisements for their company) say that there are so many over-asking sales. I found this is not completely true.
The over-asking crowd is the stuff under $400,000. But now that just buys a townhouse. Singles start at $500K.
For that you get an under 1000 square foot bungalow.
If you go higher than $500K, they are negotiating down.
I had $15,000 trimmed from a 1800 square foot house asking 570,000. It’s 3 blocks from the second phase of the new Light rail transit and built in the 70’s.
How do I know they are negotiating down in the higher price range? I got the numbers. Here is what my son-in-law told me to do.
3 Before making an offer, a buyer needs to get their agent to email them all the houses that are similar in the same or similar area, that have sold in the last year. Tell the agent you want the days on market, and the selling price. It will come with the listing picture and you can use this as a buyer to determine how much buyers are negotiating down for similar houses. The agent said this was so easy to pull. My son-in-law determined that the ones that were not selling for full price came down about 7 to 10K lower. He suggested I start about $20K lower, but I decided to try an extra $5k and the owner agreed to 15k lower. Don’t just ask the realtor what he thinks a place will sell for. Get the info in writing, just like the seller does.
Hope this helps someone else. Oh yes, wait a year or so if you don’t have to move like me. Prices should moderate. Listen to Ross Kay at Howestreet radio.

#62 cto on 04.16.19 at 7:19 pm

Little story…
I saw this idiot the other day, cranking his badly broken car over and over again. every now and then the engine would start for a few seconds, then die out.
Eventually his battery died,…and i thought this guy surely must work for the Bank of Canada.
Wasn’t Poloz though,… maybe an adviser.

#63 EnnDeePea on 04.16.19 at 7:29 pm

Tell us about when you were a dipper Garth.

‘If a man is not a socialist by the time he is 20, he has no heart. If he is still a socialist at 40, he has no brain.’ – Garth

#64 Bill Grable on 04.16.19 at 7:31 pm

The on-going worry and stress, of living in Vancouver, has started to affect the health of the GVRD.
My Doctor said she has been swamped by stressed out, nearly suicidal patients, who have come to the realization, they are in deep financial clam dip.
Mr. Turner – you have done your best – and I tried to warn my house crazed friends – nada.
A bud called me a ‘downer”.
I have friends that didn’t understand the HELOC papers they signed and now they are hooped. Savings? Food Prices are heading to the moon…..everything….is going up, but wages.
Honestly, Mr. Turner – I just got back from a trek, to D/T – and it was DEAD. The stores on Davie Street and Denman and along Georgia are empty.
They are still slamming up hundreds of crappy condos that are going to destroy people that pre-paid – (*unless they are in Vancouver’s huge money laundering industry).

#65 VanLovesStressTest on 04.16.19 at 7:31 pm

I hope the stress test and other mechanisms brings housing prices in Vancouver back to pre 2015 levels. Locals living and working in Vancouver are being displaced by insane real estate and living costs. Our neighbourhoods sit empty and tax base shrinks where kids used to grow up. I hope that Real Estate drops so my peers in my 30s can live where they grew up.

Prices going up 30% in one year was major FOMO. Prices deflating 30% over the next few years is ideal.

Example: Van DINKS with $360k a year pre-tax = $1.6M house with 20% down. Have you seen what that gets you in Vancouver? A falling knife in East Van.

#66 Millicent Demeure on 04.16.19 at 7:36 pm

Anyone else out there heavily distracted by the Blue Alberta flag on the shoulder of the visiting Calgary Flames Jerseys?

#67 EB on 04.16.19 at 7:46 pm

#43 Michael Gamecocke – China ca. 10 gigatons of Carbon per year, USA another 5 gigatons, EU about 4 gigatons.

Two dollar gas here might mean Canada’s ca. 1 gigaton per year will be reduced by some miniscule percentage to perhaps 990 megatons.

We did it, global warming is fixed.

#68 Nonplused on 04.16.19 at 7:48 pm

#56 CROOKED JASON KENNEY – LOCK HIM UP!!

Unless you are in Jason’s riding, you can’t vote for or against him. Do you not understand how Canadian politics work? A UPC voter is not going to vote NDP no matter who is currently the so-called leader of the party nor vice-versa.

Anyway, Garth, I am not sure you should be publishing these “LOCK HIM UP!!” posts on election day, if at all.

#69 ImGonnaBeSick on 04.16.19 at 7:49 pm

#44 Alberta Ed on 04.16.19 at 6:50 pm

Alberta Ed, SIPs were a fairly novel idea a decade ago, but they’ve proven to be a really bad idea in practice. Please do research on the issues they’ve found with SIP construction post installations, ie rot and mold.

Insulated windows, same deal. At a point the cost doesn’t make sense. The gas leaks out pretty quickly after installation. The insulating savings are not there. Expensive, marketed to bleeding hearts and dirty hippies with too much money.

Don’t get caught up in all the hype of most advanced building techniques… thermal mass, passive solar techniques (growing trees on the south side, having windows east to west, etc.) being the exception – but these aren’t really new ideas. Unless you’re planning on writing a blog or book about it. It’s all marketing.

#70 acdel on 04.16.19 at 7:49 pm

Someday we’ll elect people with a long-term vision, dedicated to the public interest.
—————————————————–

Ha, when is the last time we had such an opportunity? There is no long term vision, just a 4yr, sometimes 8 and a golden handshake.
Meanwhile the rest of us are expected to support there golden handshakes and rebuild again due to there incompetent decisions.

#71 Lee on 04.16.19 at 7:50 pm

25B in mortgages is a drop in the bucket for banks. I bet they make less than 1% net on those loans compared to allocating the money elsewhere. They’re out at most 300M in a year between the lot of them including all other lenders. Won’t even move the dial with the big 6 or 7 Canadian banks.

#72 Millmech on 04.16.19 at 7:55 pm

#25 MF
Gen x here, why buy shelter when I can rent it for a50-70% less and make bank every payday.I will be buying with cash in the future and then HELOC out 65% move it over to my investment account with margin and then use the margin to get another 35% capital to invest. 100% of my investment back in the market and interest is tax deductible, If my calculations are correct I’ll be getting a five figure tax refund for years and my capital will double in about ten years. Not that hard to game the system.

#73 Jason on 04.16.19 at 7:56 pm

I’m both a mortgage broker and an Albertan and I support the Stress Test. Is is the best option no, but it’s what we have and it’s doing what its intent was. In the long run it will be best for everyone.

#74 Sebee on 04.16.19 at 8:00 pm

Garth,

You paint a nice picture of politics leading the way to kill B-20, and it’s s valid one. But I believe better one is to follow the money.

Eliminating B-20 means house values are likely to be maintained a bit longer, thus property taxation doesn’t need downward revision as values drop. And the way we run thus economy, governments can’t afford revenue decreases. More loans means more revenue for banks too, so obviously they are for it. And the greater fools pay for it all. That’s why B-20 will go. Oh, and to prop up this out of whack economy a little longer. Are we really at 178% debt nationally? Is it OK on this blog to ask for God to save us? :-)

#75 GLK on 04.16.19 at 8:08 pm

“They already got the weed. So why endure more Justin?”

LOL.
That is a good one and could be the title for the post.
Thank you Garth for the laugh.

#76 Linda on 04.16.19 at 8:13 pm

What’s the “T2 gang”?

#77 Capt. Serious on 04.16.19 at 8:16 pm

I can’t see this ending well. So many people are going to end up underwater on their mortgages. Only a re-run of the 1990s will make a new generation learn that the price you pay for something matters. Oh well. Not my problem.

#78 IHCTD9 on 04.16.19 at 8:16 pm

#35 the ryguy – In cabo on 04.16.19 at 6:26 pm
#30 IHCTD9 on 04.16.19 at 5:55 pm
——————————————

Just out of curiosity..did you get a quote or two to have it done? Wondering what that chore would cost now.
———-

Never did, but it would likely be in 5-6K range. This is 3 out of 4 “roofs” on my house – all the lower level ones. The upper level one I had done about 10 years ago, and it was 4K, just the labour, I bought the shingles for the guy. The lower three total a little more the the main upper roof, and then there’s the loads of step flashing, going around the chimney, removing a Cupola, etc… that you don’t have on the main roof.

I’ll do it one more time, that’s probably going to be it – I will be too old the next time!

#79 Jim Magill on 04.16.19 at 8:18 pm

DELETED

#80 Dolce Vita on 04.16.19 at 8:20 pm

‘If a man is not a socialist by the time he is 20, he has no heart. If he is still a socialist at 40, he has no brain.’ – Garth

Ain’t that the TRUTH.

At 20 you in general have no money but want that of others, by any means (a.k.a., NDP).

At 40 you in general have money and no one is going to get at it, by any means (a.k.a., Conservatives).

Added gravitas if you had mentioned that the alleged quote was from those whom it was attributed to:

Disraeli, Shaw, Churchill, and Bertrand Russell.

Either one, not bad company I say.

————————————–

Thanks for that Garth. It’s ‘been a long time since I heard or read that quote and had forgotten it.

And yes, I’m bored…according to YouTube 40:39 min. sec. until the AB election Live Stream. Thank you for the Blog as always.

Always loved it as one of life’s maxims.

#81 WUL on 04.16.19 at 8:26 pm

#57 Dolce Vita on 04.16.19 at 7:15 pm

” 70% of Canadians are home owners”
?????

I’ve been meaning to ask this question for a long time. We see this stat here all the time. Can it be true? Of the ~35 million Canadians, 24.5 million Cheeseheads would be homeowners. That would require 16 year old hockey fans to be home owners, would it not?

In a 2011 portrait of our demographic, ~ 16% of Canadians were 14 years old and younger.

About 12.5% of the population in 2011 were between 15 and 24 years old.

There’s 28.5% of Canadians under the age of 24 in 2011.

So almost everyone over the age of 24 owned a home?

Should it be expressed as 70% of Canadians live in homes that are owned or are not renters?

#82 TurnerNation on 04.16.19 at 8:28 pm

#1 Tater congrats on being Furrtst.

The erudite Tal-isman calling for a rate cut, perhaps boolish on housing? Ben-d my ear, get the invite. (Our forum host no longer the sine qua non. Or getting wet on the Least Coast)

http://www.postcity.com/Eat-Shop-Do/Do/March-2019/Toronto-real-estate-2019/

#83 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.16.19 at 8:31 pm

@#42 Dolce Vita

Verrry interesting Stats Can numbers……
And Trudeau is riding that economic horse straight to Hell.

#84 akashic record on 04.16.19 at 8:36 pm

#76 Linda on 04.16.19 at 8:13 pm

What’s the “T2 gang”?

Some kind of canine club, specializing in millennials. Probably. Nobody really knows…

#85 DON on 04.16.19 at 8:40 pm

#41 Penny Henny on 04.16.19 at 6:36 pm

#17 Stan Brooks on 04.16.19 at 5:36 pm

Do you know how cancer works? The parasite/cancer cells occupy the blood/money stream and live nothing to the normal cells, so all organ’s healthy cells die.
/////////////////

The only thing more depressing than Stan Brooks is Stan Brooks talking about cancer.
Come to think of it Stan Brooks is a cancer

**************

That last part was uncalled for and pathetic…

#86 akashic record on 04.16.19 at 8:41 pm

#55 expat on 04.16.19 at 7:11 pm

Trudeau is doing a town hall on Alberta Election night.

You can’t bottle stupid

—-

It’s fun watching it. Run out of popcorn, though…

He is bashing dictatorships and demands that someone in the audience should sit down.

#87 Habbit on 04.16.19 at 8:42 pm

Liberals gaining ground. See cbcpolltracker.ca

#88 IHCTD9 on 04.16.19 at 8:42 pm

#57 Dutch Roofers on 04.16.19 at 7:12 pm

Surely an IHCTD9 dude would have rigged up a motorized shingles hoist……I am deeply saddened.

———

Yo!

Maybe the little dozer will reach up there – if I can keep the tracks on long enough :)

#89 DON on 04.16.19 at 8:55 pm

#53 Drill Baby Drill on 04.16.19 at 7:08 pm

Alberta after tonight will be finally fighting back. Big Time. We have had 4 yrs of Notley being ga ga eyes over Selfie Boy. BC and Ottawa are going to be made to feel very uncomfortable over the next several months.
*************

Just curious do you remember what happened four years ago…why Alberta voted for Notely?

Seriously, I could care less if she loses to Kenny but do you remember why she got elected in the first place and wasn’t oil already in a funk!

Can you lay out what Kenny will do to bring the boom back. Building massive oil infrastructure bought the boom in jobs and it takes less jobs to maintain what was built. Can you please help me logically understand the expected return to boom times? Not arguing…just trying to understand your reasoning.

#90 PeterfromCalgary on 04.16.19 at 8:56 pm

Andrewski: Your right that dude really looks like Jack Dorsey the co-founder of Twitter. However a google image search only comes up with angry man in car.

https://www.google.com/search?tbs=sbi:AMhZZivWkxCWBmSjVKx5MXMQ-Dn9rpjiR1ahzbJV7QFS3MYyBwf5tVsX_1Bro02jEW-ghzDQFRJhMsHcvX9j_1-TgwSRUEoWg_1rRxMudHESR-f2iGR-v6cGcfdtSg28X7tEVvOKfGI5kF8sT5B_1E1aK3Y4fuldt4yGQd-ehAdfDRv30Y1_1Lgg9slzAlDo9Hy28E4goNFJH95IZpcUBU6HPVrDQJutrgXO3ajR8-hwlPMtFf8JB1-PTkkNRhMKjXF0LQbMkBWA0cYDNpVI1MKoU3GFVAVCT6bkV84W5EJqB0KOhciwlJN91wPMUWb0sYXxiqEx6Hwkvuy3PR0vLDp-Sf_1ynVzBOZB069w

#91 gen xr on 04.16.19 at 8:59 pm

@#25 MF on 04.16.19 at 5:48 pm
#9 DM in C on 04.16.19 at 5:05 pm

Absolutely not. Gen x, from what I have witnessed, is the most house horny/delusional of all.

1) graduated before 2008
2) entered the workforce before 2008
3) purchased property before 2008

This demographic was born on third base but thinks it hit a triple when it comes to real estate.

MF
__________________

you couldnt be more right :)

the rent you folk pay on my mostly paid off real estate holdings (yes bought before 2008) maxes out my TFSAs+ yearly.

Every generation has their delusional ones.

life is grand

#92 DON on 04.16.19 at 9:01 pm

I read Benny’s article today…can’t remember is CIBC is having problems with achieving new mortgage highs.

I say let’s get rid of the stress test and let the market fall under it’s own weight.

I posted this yesterday.

Australia – Yikes.

https://www.news.com.au/finance/real-estate/buying/property-armageddon-house-prices-could-fall-by-50-per-cent/news-story/153fd33bb438f903c70918f518a53455

Some paragraphs:

SYDNEY FELL FIRST, MELBOURNE FELL HARDER

Kusher says Sydney has led the nation’s property price falls, with the most expensive properties suffering the biggest falls.

“We’re already seeing areas in Sydney, which have come back 20 per cent or more,” Kusher says.

“If you look at Sydney, Pennant Hills and Epping have fallen by 26 per cent from its peak, Ryde and Hunters Hill by 19.6 per cent and Kogarah by 18.4 per cent whereas the lower Blue Mountains has only fallen by 1 per cent,” he says.

“In Melbourne, it’s similar where the top end has dropped, with some areas coming back 18.1 per cent and others like Wyndham only 5.7 per cent.”

#93 Cowlie Pipestripe on 04.16.19 at 9:09 pm

Jason Kenney’s hunger and passion for Wild Rose Country runs deep, nothing can stop him and his incredible team from making Alberta stronger for Canada!

#94 pfft on 04.16.19 at 9:09 pm

@#63 EnnDeePea on 04.16.19 at 7:29 pm
Tell us about when you were a dipper Garth.

‘If a man is not a socialist by the time he is 20, he has no heart. If he is still a socialist at 40, he has no brain.’ – Garth
_____________________________

think goes from ‘WE’ to ‘ME’ as you age.

#95 Drill Baby Drill on 04.16.19 at 9:10 pm

T2 = Selfie Boy’s government

#96 Drill Baby Drill on 04.16.19 at 9:11 pm

The mortgage stress test needs to remain

#97 Briana on 04.16.19 at 9:13 pm

Benny Tal….really!! Fake economist. Need some real facts people, not nonsensical jargon to support banks and realtors. Garth is right on this analysis. Stress test worked and continues to work.

Everyone knows the problem is foreigners. BC has taken a stance and Toronto/Ontario needs to follow. Get corrupt and criminal foreign money out of Canada. This is all on the politicians and regulators and a corrupt housing industry. As Garth noted housing must be a home not investment strategy and all of this nonsense has let it become an investment strategy. Now hard working tax paying citizens that should be able to afford homes in their own country or rent cannot!!this is absurd, meanwhile a large percentage of homes sit empty or rented on airBnb, a small fraction of time…all for owners that do not live in country and do not pay taxes here or purchase home in a business name or their child they send to school here!! Definitely not fair to the hard working tax paying citizen of this country that does not have such privileges and cannot afford a home due to inflated prices from these practices! If foreigners want to own property here or buy any type of major luxury good they should contribute to our society in huge financial terms to benefit the people, society, environment, and programs… Or go elsewhere.

#98 DON on 04.16.19 at 9:15 pm

#49 Rexx Rock on 04.16.19 at 7:05 pm

#!2 Stan Brook

The system is broken and you are right it can’t be fixed.Only high income wage earners will be able to afford cities like Toronto,Vancouver and Victoria.Yes the over all inflation is high and nobody believes that it is 2%.Its quite comical but expect some wild policies coming foward.Kenny will win but his hands are tied and eventually bow down to T2.
*****************
How many high income earners don’t already own a house or two? Where are these high income earners coming from and in Victoria, where are the high income jobs? Where are the stats, prices in my neighborhood are higher than what the average income can afford.

But by your logic prices will keep on rising and our locals will be replaced with millionaires/billionaires as they compete to gain a special part of rain belt and frozen tundra.

Remember recency bias. In Victoria Condo buildings are still coming on line and houses are still being built. But there are 6 unloved for sale signs on one corner.

People are tapped out…but you don’t seem to notice. Sales in Vic are not happening…take away the stress test and the debt load is still massive.

I can wait to upgrade, but I wonder how long the average over indebted couple/family can tread debt.

It is not just houses…it is the cars, toys, campers, vacations. Which straw will break the camels back.

One thing I know for sure is that in Victoria, prices used to be higher and so did sales but not anymore…well at least until all the high income earners arrive in town.

#99 Robert Ash on 04.16.19 at 9:17 pm

Investing it is all about value, and realizing a good price for your investments initially. If Credit is artificially maintained at Emergency levels, and the Currency is Manipulated to in essense, reduce your Capital Value, and Assets…. What can go wrong…
When the Choices are Sheer ( BA no experience) Justin Trudeau ( BA no experience ) and Jagmeet ( Who! is that!) can you detect an imbalance, and the potential for lack of Rational Thinking. We have one Real Competitive advantage in the world, Raw Materials
& Resources, and we elect people who are so far removed from the actual Economy, what is the likely outcome… For some reason, we are trying to self implode, and sadly the best way out… may be to get out… of the country. The most compelling reason, is that we are governed by many folks, who are not in the real Economy, but provide Service Support roles, like most employment in Major Cities… So what is the surprise… Look at Kathleen Wynn, she truly felt I am sure she was on the Right Path… I have a Masters Degree… in Education… I must be a Smart Gal… let’s try this project… Oh Energy not working out.. Or Notely, a Family Lawyer…. Mothball, our Electric Grid, even the Genesse Power Plant, new and exceptional, in its’emission performance. These types of Decisions are killing Canada… and fast… that is the scary part… there is also that Lag Factor… kicks in 18 months, later..

#100 IHCTD9 on 04.16.19 at 9:17 pm

#25 MF on 04.16.19 at 5:48 pm
#9 DM in C on 04.16.19 at 5:05 pm

This demographic was born on third base but thinks it hit a triple when it comes to real estate.

MF
——-

I gotta say, Gen X did get lucky, especially the leading edge X’ers. We bought in 01 cheap, decent jobs were coming back around, decent wages, rates started dropping not long after, prime less 3/4 for 5 years – 1.5% mortgage rate for a year or two, paid off in 14 with no superhuman effort.

I’ve always thought Gen X to have been the luckiest of all generations thus far. That could change if they did load up on RE though…

#101 DON on 04.16.19 at 9:20 pm

ok last post.

Time to limit all politicians to 2 terms. This seems to be the only sane option going forward as too many are blinded by partisanship. Time to put on the big boy/girl pants and think for yourself.

Garth has provided the tools and still people walk straight into the slaughter house. Kenny is in it for himself not you – but he is using you to get to power.

#102 joblo on 04.16.19 at 9:27 pm

Flames suck

#103 WUL on 04.16.19 at 9:27 pm

I went to the polling station in Calgary and voted NDP.

Rachel Notley was the best progressive conservative Premier Alberta has ever had.

We’ll withstand 4 years of Kenney.

We won’t thrive but we’ll persevere and get by.

Alberta’s economy is probably beyond repair but the mountains will still be beautiful and enduring.

#104 Remembrancer on 04.16.19 at 9:28 pm

#80 Dolce Vita on 04.16.19 at 8:20 pm

Another one for you, from a less illustrious crowd…

A liberal is just a conservative who hasn’t been mugged yet – Frank Rizzo, Philly Mayor 1972-80

Which Tom Wolfe counters “If a conservative is just a liberal who’s been mugged, a liberal is a conservative who’s been arrested”…

#105 Doug in London on 04.16.19 at 10:15 pm

Someday we’ll elect people with a long-term vision, dedicated to the public interest.
—————————————————-
If I take really good care of myself and my life isn’t ended early by disease or accident, then I could be here another 30 years but am not counting on seeing such a thing happen. How about those younger kids I saw getting off a school bus yesterday, will they see it? You wouldn’t be wise to bet more than a dime on it.

#106 theoryAndPractice on 04.16.19 at 10:21 pm

#81 WUL on 04.16.19 at 8:26 pm

—-
Home ownership stats:
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/171025/dq171025c-eng.pdf

#107 SimplyPut7 on 04.16.19 at 10:38 pm

United Conservative majority government!

#108 Oakville Rocks! on 04.16.19 at 10:38 pm

At a press conference in France earlier today Emmanuel Macron vowed to rebuild Notre Dame Cathedral in 5 years. This time though, he solemnly vowed, we will build it right, we will rebuild in Rome. Meanwhile, somewhere in a basement in Vaughan, a bitter old man lifts his eyes up from the latest copy of GOOP the magazine to observe. Shaking his fist at the TV, he mutters to himself and his grey cat Ebenezer, “told you so”.

#109 Dolce Vita on 04.16.19 at 10:39 pm

UCP at 44 seats leading or elected 36 minutes after the hour (44 or more needed to win).

Of course, Global pointing out that leading, not elected…code for don’t turn off the TV we have more commercials for you to view.

Then again, they just called it a UCP majority. Poor Rachael.

Looks like my fellow Albertan’s decided to lash out politically.

#110 Smoking Man on 04.16.19 at 10:40 pm

Boom, UPC in a landslide.

Hey T2, you watching. great night for some good burbon.
Market Makers tonight.

#111 Nonplused on 04.16.19 at 10:48 pm

Early polling UPC is up 2:1. Notely was always an anomaly. Alberta is conservative. She took advantage of the split between the PC’s and Wild Rose. That is fixed now.

#112 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.16.19 at 10:48 pm

#55 expat on 04.16.19 at 7:11 pm
Trudeau is doing a town hall on Alberta Election night.

You can’t bottle stupid
——-
Of course you can bottle stupid.
The Israelis just found a way.
But they need volunteers.
You seem to be a prime candidate.
Go for it.
Make your family proud.

#113 Lana on 04.16.19 at 10:58 pm

Someday we will elect our politicians with a long term vision, dedicated to the public interest. Define the public interest Gartho? Help me understand

#114 T-Rev on 04.16.19 at 10:58 pm

Gartho- if you were Albertans, how would you have voted? Come on, don’t be shy…

#115 Boots on the ground in Ptown on 04.16.19 at 11:09 pm

#41 Penny Henny on 04.16.19 at 6:36 pm
#17 Stan Brooks on 04.16.19 at 5:36 pm

Do you know how cancer works? The parasite/cancer cells occupy the blood/money stream and live nothing to the normal cells, so all organ’s healthy cells die.
/////////////////

The only thing more depressing than Stan Brooks is Stan Brooks talking about cancer.
Come to think of it Stan Brooks is a cancer

_———————+++++-+——–+++++++++++

Get with the 21st century PH.

TTAC.com
Thetruthaboutcancer.com

Or are these black listed websites not accessible by Canadians? Sheesh.

Coming from personal experience and a family member on the front lines of functional medicine, for 7 years now.

Curious: does anyone here know what Mark Hyman, David Perlmutter, Kelly Brogan, Datis Kharrazian, Jonathan Wright have in common?

Google it. If you can. One of them might just rescue your life and hand it back to you.

The longer I’m away from Canada the more I realize how its a decade behind. That’s coming from a duallie who is proud to say I’m Canadian when South of the border. Less proud since 2015 I must say.

#116 Dobie Westflour on 04.16.19 at 11:10 pm

A very clear and direct mandate from Wild Rose Country to 24 Sussex Drive. Alberta is speaking up and standing up for strength in the Resource Sector. And if big changes don’t happen very soon, there could be a new PM this fall in Ottawa. Why? Because it’s 2019.

#117 WUL on 04.16.19 at 11:11 pm

#106 theoryAndPractice on 04.16.19 at 10:21 pm

Thanks for the link.

So, 70% of Canadian households are in houses they own and not 70% of Canadians own homes. That make sense. The stat that 70% of Canadians are homeowners could not have been true.

#118 45north on 04.16.19 at 11:25 pm

So, the heat’s on the feds to review the stress test. It’s now the most fundamental issue for the core Liberal vote. And while B-20 (the technical term for the test) comes under the auspices of the bank regulator, OSFI, it’s not immune to political pressure. And that pressure is mounting.

The tables have turned vis à vis Justin Trudeau and Bill Morneau. Morneau has never been in a better position to advocate for the banks. And the banks need the stress test.

Just listen to Dave McKay, who happens to be in charge of the Royal Bank: “We need some of this policy change, particularly the B-20 change, as we are in a highly stimulative monetary policy environment. We needed to layer on some type of policy change; now that the Bank of Canada feels more comfortable raising rates, that’s supposed to be the brake on the economy that we all like to see.”

Another thing: Danielle Park: there is a whole segment of people living on the financial edge.

but there’s a whole segment of people who are not. Gutting the stress test, benefits those living on the financial edge at the expense of those who aren’t. Gutting the stress test, would be a disaster for the Liberal Party. It would cut the middle class in two. Remember the slogan “Real Change for the Middle Class”. It only works when there’s one middle class.

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/the-truth-about-justin-trudeaus-tax-cuts/

#119 Trevor on 04.17.19 at 12:03 am

Garth said: “Someday we’ll elect people with a long-term vision, dedicated to the public interest.”

That is, without hesitation, the funniest thing I have ever read on this website. Regardless of political affiliation, each government at every level just seems dumber, more juvenile, and more petty than the last. It’s really quite something. I vote hoping it will change one day, but it won’t.

A troglodyte just became Premier of Alberta. Good work, everyone.

#120 prairie person on 04.17.19 at 12:05 am

I don’t know the overall numbers for property sales in Victoria, but in my neighbourhood for sale signs go up and sold signs quickly follow. Houses that lingered over the winter have now been sold. Not a lot of for sale signs up. Obviously not a lot of speccers, flippers. A few old houses torn down and a new build. They’re sold. The extra cost must be worth it to avoid Langford and the Colwood crawl. After 3:30 the highway turns into a parking lot. The new highway construction will be outdated before it is finished. I don’t know where everyone is coming from or where they are working. May be retirees but, if so, they’re bringing lots of money with them. It isn’t cheap to live in Victoria.

#121 Cowtown Cowboy on 04.17.19 at 12:22 am

Thank who ever you like, that we’ve eradicated the orange scourge that’s infected our province. Make Alberta Great Again!

#122 Cowtown Cowboy on 04.17.19 at 12:26 am

‘If a man is not a socialist by the time he is 20, he has no heart. If he is still a socialist at 40, he has no brain.’ – Garth

One of my favourite quotes!

#123 joblo on 04.17.19 at 12:48 am

Look at that, Sewer Rats WIN!

#124 yvr_lurker on 04.17.19 at 12:52 am

I live in BC, but actually liked Notley. She has integrity, works very hard, is rational, and did her best to deal with a bad set of cards with the resource industry (and did her best to deal with the hypocrite that Trudeau is). Kenney seems like an opportunist of the highest order, untrustworthy, and a blowhard. Thank God I live in BC. Turn off the taps if you like Mr. Bulldog and we’ll all waste millions in the courts. Thank God there is a set of mountains between us; please stay on your side of the divide.

#125 Nonplused on 04.17.19 at 12:57 am

The nightmare is finally over. Canada is now conservative from the western border of Quebec to the eastern border of BC. Why is it the lefties always congregate on the coasts, even in the US? Is it the effects of salt water? Anyway they should find a cure.

Next up let’s make Trudeau a 1 term embarrassment too. We can do it Canada!

#126 Smoking Man on 04.17.19 at 1:19 am

I’m so tempted to be a candidate in parliament.

The camera’s are on, it’s my turn to speak, I inhale an entire cigarette on one drag, I devour a bottle of JD, in one gulp , plug in the ear buds in, start taking to myself like every good writer before me.

But then the crusafics of fame I would have to walk into a rub an tug threw the back door.

I’m a front door man.

#127 Smoking Man on 04.17.19 at 1:36 am

On the quest to epic self destruction. I blame it on a low bordome tolerance.

You want to see what happens next.

Your hooked into the story of your imagination. I’m fkd and not ashamed . Deal with it you teacher traind non risk takers.

https://youtu.be/MjUqfRrWwcM

#128 Renter's Revenge! on 04.17.19 at 6:28 am

#125 Nonplused on 04.17.19 at 12:57 am
The nightmare is finally over. Canada is now conservative from the western border of Quebec to the eastern border of BC. Why is it the lefties always congregate on the coasts, even in the US? Is it the effects of salt water? Anyway they should find a cure.

===================================

Maybe it’s because there’s usually more money on the coasts. The socialists have more of other people’s money to spend there. The cure is when they run out of it.

#129 Ace Goodheart on 04.17.19 at 6:50 am

As predicted, UCP landslide win in Alberta.

The Alberta Liberal party did not win a single seat, getting 0.98% of the popular vote.

I hope Mr. Socks is ready for what is going to happen to him in October.

Ontario does not like him and has swung hard right. Alberta would like to string him up from a lamp post.

BC appears to be still in love with him, but BC is weird.

Quebec and the Eastern Provinces seem to be tired of him, but at the same time I don’t think anyone in Quebec will ever vote for a party whose leader is from Saskatchewan, so likely you will get a badly split vote in Quebec between Pro-Quebec parties and the Liberals, rendering any advantage Mr. Dress Up has in Quebec into a nullity.

It is looking like Andrew will come out of this with either a minority government, or a small majority.

#130 CROOKED JASON KENNEY - LOCK HIM UP!! on 04.17.19 at 7:30 am

Now the clock starts ticking to Kenney’s scandal exposed and likely removal, and Alberta’s descent into political and financial chaos.

Dumb move, Albertans. You’ll start paying the price for your lunatic right wing culture of denial very soon.

And you’ve just delivered a beautiful gift to Justin.

Way to go!

#131 Sebee on 04.17.19 at 7:33 am

#42 Dolce Vita 

Are you really comparing one of the best retail months with back to school sales to the post holiday January hangover? Obviously Jan will be slower.

#132 the Jaguar on 04.17.19 at 7:33 am

@103 WUL. I did the same. At least she is sticking around to be a great opposition leader.

#133 Tater on 04.17.19 at 7:47 am

#99 n1tro on 04.16.19 at 4:25 pm
#93 Tater on 04.16.19 at 3:18 pm
#89 n1tro on 04.16.19 at 2:35 pm
#81 Tater

All you need to know is whether is it fair or not. And unless you’ve read a bunch of cases and know the law, you simply can’t.

The company is doing everything they can to pay you the minimum they feel they can get away with. They’ve had their lawyers comb though cases to see what they should pay and have then adjusted down. So spend a couple grand on a lawyer to make sure the offer is fair. If you can’t swing that, then you likely don’t make enough for fighting to be worthwhile.

The lawyer should draft a letter that says we feel severance of X would be more in keeping with case law as seen in blah blah blah.

And you may want to spend less time reading case outcomes and focus on the basics. We don’t have at-will employment in Canada.
————————
You mistake “fair” with the term “legal”. All a person needs to know is if the severance package meets the legal requirements of the law in the province their ass is getting booted from. The legal requirements are the bare minimums like:

Having worked with the company for 5+ years
Entitled to 1 week of pay per year of service
Company has to manage payrolls of like $2M or more
2 weeks notice

You are right, Canada doesnt have at will employees and that is easily remedied in the employment contract that says the company is entitled to dismiss you with 2 weeks notice. Nothing really changes if the company is bent on dismissing you within the legal requirements despite how “fair” you think it is or isnt.
—————————————————————-

For someone who claims to read court outcomes for fun, you don’t really seem to get how the system works.

There are the laws for severance (or pay in lieu of notice, technically) but there is a long history of court rulings on what is actually reasonable. An employer can make you an offer that meets the amounts set out in ESA, but that are still woefully short of what a court has granted others in similar circumstances. THAT amount is what you are actually entitled to (or something in the ballpark).

Without having a lawyer go through court cases and see what others in your situation have received, you might sign a contract that is legal but not fair. Understand?

And as for your asinine idea to put some language in a contract to stipulate a maximum amount of severance, you should know that if it is less than is in statutes the contract will be voided and if it is unfair to the employee the contract will also likely be voided by a court.

I hope you aren’t making up employment contracts for your employer or business, because you very obviously don’t understand what you are doing.

#134 maxx on 04.17.19 at 8:04 am

#11 Yukon Elvis on 04.16.19 at 5:27 pm

“And while B-20 (the technical term for the test) comes under the auspices of the bank regulator, OSFI, it’s not immune to political pressure. And that pressure is mounting.
……………………………….

Told ya. So did many others. Changed or gone with the stroke of a political pen. And you scoffed…

Nah, I just thought there was a little more integrity in the system. – Garth”

Totally, completely, unreservedly agree….and what a reality check the present regime is. I am revolted by it and cringe when I watch Question Period, unable to believe that this bunch are running, nay, ruining the country. And those bobble-heads…..what a pile of sell outs, many of whom “were” people of accomplishment with spines, now coming to rest at bobble-head central. They have entitlements and standing, don’t ya know!

Bring on October!

#135 IHCTD9 on 04.17.19 at 8:22 am

#103 WUL on 04.16.19 at 9:27 pm
I went to the polling station in Calgary and voted NDP.

Rachel Notley was the best progressive conservative Premier Alberta has ever had.
_____

You know I’m a knuckle dragger – but I would have traded Wynne for Notley in a heartbeat.

Here’s an old West Coast logger tune you might like to cheer you up : )

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=atxl6GBZdOQ

#136 AB Boxster on 04.17.19 at 8:22 am

As I predicted, Rachel’ and her band of social justice nutcases have been kicked my the curb.

Jason Kenney was able to unite the right voters, and handily win the Alberta election all within 3 years.

Alberta is open for business as Kenney says.
And If it cannot become successful within Canada then Albertans will look to outside Canada.

Finally the province has a leader that will defend the interests of our energy industry and of our workers.

A government that considers jobs, families and economic freedom and initiative more important than social ideological posing.

A leader that fought and won the election on real ideas, rather than trying to attack and portray everyone in Alberta who disagreed with their agendas as either racist or sexist or homophobic.
(Hey, that worked out well Rachel, but because the left has no real ideas that don’t involve pure leftist ideology and dogma, it is their only tactic)

Kenney will actually defend the interests of Albertans, rather than a pretender like Notley, who is personally, politically and ideologically aligned with every foreign and domestic group working to sabotage Albertas energy industry.

Albertans will no longer apologize for producing the most environmentally sustainable product in the world.

We are unwilling to try to placate the leftist idiots of the world that think that shutting down the Alberta energy industry, and kowtowing to pretend environmentalists is the way to obtain something called ‘social licence’.
A bizarre term made up by the Alberta NDP and their idiotic federalist Liberal friends. Happily the NDP can now go back to merrily protesting pipelines and supporting the idiotic polices of their federal party and praising the communist leading the province to the west.

For the rest of Canada.
Be prepared for the new Alberta.
We may be happy with our new government.
But we sure ain’t happy with the state of the confederation and Alberta’s place in it.

If you did not get it yet, Sunny Ways is dead.

#137 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.17.19 at 8:25 am

So, the economically deprived voters of Alberta have decided.
Their own little version of Donald Trump.
A bloviating windbag that never lets truth get in the way of a good story.
Gonna be interesting to watch him “get those pipelines built” through provinces he has zero authority over.

Voters are so gullible these days.

I think I’m going to enjoy watching Canada’s version of Trump antagonize everyone.

#138 Tweak required on 04.17.19 at 8:29 am

‘If a man is not a socialist by the time he is 20, he has no heart. If he is still a socialist at 40, he has no brain.’ – Garth

I would tweak it to:

‘If a man is not a socialist by the time he is 20, he has no heart. If he is still a socialist at 40, he has no money.’ – Garth

#139 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.17.19 at 8:30 am

@#125 nonplused
“Why is it the lefties always congregate on the coasts, even in the US? ”

+++++

Well the Author Studs Terkel was once asked the same question during the Charles Manson trial and he replied,

“On the eighth day, God tipped the North American continent on it’s side and all the fruits and nuts rolled west…”

#140 dharma bum on 04.17.19 at 8:30 am

Someday we’ll elect people with a long-term vision, dedicated to the public interest. – Garth
——————————————————————–

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hXDo9Ocurq0

#141 Howard on 04.17.19 at 8:33 am

Someday we’ll elect people with a long-term vision, dedicated to the public interest.

—————————————–

If they were dedicated to the public interest, they would follow New Zealand’s lead and ban foreign home ownership.

Immigrants welcome.
Foreigners welcome only as tourists.
Canadian homes for Canadians.

Not a chance. We are an open society and benefit from it. – Garth

#142 Howard on 04.17.19 at 8:51 am

#25 MF on 04.16.19 at 5:48 pm
#9 DM in C on 04.16.19 at 5:05 pm

Absolutely not. Gen x, from what I have witnessed, is the most house horny/delusional of all.

1) graduated before 2008
2) entered the workforce before 2008
3) purchased property before 2008

This demographic was born on third base but thinks it hit a triple when it comes to real estate.

MF

—————————————

It’s even starker than that. The Gen-X birth-year advantage began well before 2008.

The hollowing out of well-paying entry and mid-level positions began around 2000, just as the eldest Millennials reached adulthood. The 90s were a golden era for people in their 20s and 30s. High salaries and dirt cheap housing – whether you were buying or renting, everything was cheap. A friend of mine, born in 1973, said he was renting a 1-bedroom apartment at Bloor & Lansdowne in 1996 for $500/month lol.

#143 n1tro on 04.17.19 at 8:52 am

#133 Tater on 04.17.19 at 7:47 am
#99 n1tro on 04.16.19 at 4:25 pm
#93 Tater on 04.16.19 at 3:18 pm
#89 n1tro on 04.16.19 at 2:35 pm
#81 Tater

For someone who claims to read court outcomes for fun, you don’t really seem to get how the system works.

There are the laws for severance (or pay in lieu of notice, technically) but there is a long history of court rulings on what is actually reasonable. An employer can make you an offer that meets the amounts set out in ESA, but that are still woefully short of what a court has granted others in similar circumstances. THAT amount is what you are actually entitled to (or something in the ballpark).

Without having a lawyer go through court cases and see what others in your situation have received, you might sign a contract that is legal but not fair. Understand?

And as for your asinine idea to put some language in a contract to stipulate a maximum amount of severance, you should know that if it is less than is in statutes the contract will be voided and if it is unfair to the employee the contract will also likely be voided by a court.

I hope you aren’t making up employment contracts for your employer or business, because you very obviously don’t understand what you are doing.
——————–
Elevating yourself or your points by ridiculing others or their points reveals a lot of about one’s character.

I’d like to take credit for the “asinine” idea of putting language in a contract that negates severance but alas it has been done way before my time. Severance pay (dismissal without cause) as opposed to termination pay (dismissal with cause) has to be appearing in the employee’s contract when signed for it to take effect. If there isn’t mention of it, then the minimums of local statutes apply. *minimums* Circling back to my original point, a lot of companies put more than the *minimums* in severances or termination pays as to avoid legal action so taking it to a lawyer, paying them X amount of money to have them confirm what the minimums are, isn’t needed unless you feel the company is really trying to screw you over.

#144 Tater on 04.17.19 at 8:58 am

#41 Penny Henny on 04.16.19 at 6:36 pm
#17 Stan Brooks on 04.16.19 at 5:36 pm

Do you know how cancer works? The parasite/cancer cells occupy the blood/money stream and live nothing to the normal cells, so all organ’s healthy cells die.
/////////////////

The only thing more depressing than Stan Brooks is Stan Brooks talking about cancer.
Come to think of it Stan Brooks is a cancer
—————————————————————

As someone who’s lost all 4 grandparents and 1 parent to cancer (plus a dog!), I think that is an awful comparison to make. For cancer.

#145 maxx on 04.17.19 at 9:04 am

@ #13

I see overpriced inventory pile-ups at the retail level every day. It mostly all ends up in the skip out back. Food, you name it. What a waste.

We normally buy a new car every 15+ years. Not this time. We spent ~$1500 on brakes and bodywork and the good, old reliable Corolla is good for another 5-10. Nobody gives a rat’s behind what you drive.

As long as rates stay at stupid low levels, the everyday, practical underpinnings and necessities of day-to-day life will be managed to the absolute maximum downside. Business profit and taxes be damned.

Reduce, reuse, recycle, buy second-hand, barter, trade and give back. Short-circuit retail and protect your wealth…..so easy to do without compromising quality of life.

The wave of people cutting back in the face of high debt levels and increasing taxes has only just begun. Gubbmint simply has to swallow the bitter pill of raising rates to restore the economy. Globalization is not a bad thing – when done at speeds that make sense, and politics just gets in the way, by way of favouring business over people. No balance.

Waste of taxes, waste of time.

#146 David Pylyp on 04.17.19 at 9:35 am

THIS IS VERY INSIGHTFUL

“real estate prices are sticky and vendors would rather wait than sell for a discount, there’s a standoff between [BUYERS] who can’t borrow what they want and owners who won’t sell for less. Activity crashes. ”

But values do not.

Says CREA’s economist: “Local market trends are largely in a holding pattern. While the mortgage stress test has made access to home financing more challenging, the good news is that continuing job growth remains supportive for housing demand and should eventually translate into stronger home sales activity pending a reduction in household indebtedness.”

https://www.greaterfool.ca/2019/04/16/the-stress-mess/

SENIORS would rather hang on to their homes (age in place) when compared with $$$ Nursing Home / Adult retirement Assisted Living costs adding to further Inventory reductions.

Be well my friend; Everything now is about adding more value.

David Pylyp
Toronto

#147 Last of the Boomers on 04.17.19 at 9:39 am

Re: #91 gen x and propert purchase before 2008

Your comments make it clear that modifying B20 in any way would be a catastrophic error.

Commodification of housing was the biggest mistake in pitting generations and newcomers vs home grown against each other.

It has to stop or the unrest and arrogance will persist.

#148 Tater on 04.17.19 at 9:39 am

#143 n1tro on 04.17.19 at 8:52 am
#133 Tater on 04.17.19 at 7:47 am
#99 n1tro on 04.16.19 at 4:25 pm
#93 Tater on 04.16.19 at 3:18 pm
#89 n1tro on 04.16.19 at 2:35 pm
#81 Tater

For someone who claims to read court outcomes for fun, you don’t really seem to get how the system works.

There are the laws for severance (or pay in lieu of notice, technically) but there is a long history of court rulings on what is actually reasonable. An employer can make you an offer that meets the amounts set out in ESA, but that are still woefully short of what a court has granted others in similar circumstances. THAT amount is what you are actually entitled to (or something in the ballpark).

Without having a lawyer go through court cases and see what others in your situation have received, you might sign a contract that is legal but not fair. Understand?

And as for your asinine idea to put some language in a contract to stipulate a maximum amount of severance, you should know that if it is less than is in statutes the contract will be voided and if it is unfair to the employee the contract will also likely be voided by a court.

I hope you aren’t making up employment contracts for your employer or business, because you very obviously don’t understand what you are doing.
——————–
Elevating yourself or your points by ridiculing others or their points reveals a lot of about one’s character.

I’d like to take credit for the “asinine” idea of putting language in a contract that negates severance but alas it has been done way before my time. Severance pay (dismissal without cause) as opposed to termination pay (dismissal with cause) has to be appearing in the employee’s contract when signed for it to take effect. If there isn’t mention of it, then the minimums of local statutes apply. *minimums* Circling back to my original point, a lot of companies put more than the *minimums* in severances or termination pays as to avoid legal action so taking it to a lawyer, paying them X amount of money to have them confirm what the minimums are, isn’t needed unless you feel the company is really trying to screw you over.
————————————————————–

I get snippy with idiots, it is a character flaw.

You, an individual employee CAN know what the minimum is by statute. You CAN’T know what the minimum is from court judgments, unless you spend a bunch of time doing research. The easy way to solve this problem is to hire an expert to do that research, we call them lawyers. Considering the gap between statutory minimums and court minimums can be very large, this is a good practice to follow.

In my case the statutory minimum was 24 weeks, the company’s offer was 30 and the lawyer suggested 45 was more appropriate. We sent a letter back and got 40. The difference between the legal by statute amount and the final amount was right around 6 figures. Well worth 2k or so in legal fees.

You, a chump, would have said 30>24 and taken it. Confirming your chumpery for all to see.

#149 maxx on 04.17.19 at 9:42 am

#28 Nonplused on 04.16.19 at 5:53 pm

“Remember, Notely and Trudeau both talk about their carbon taxes as being in the public interest. I don’t know about you, but increased taxation is not in my interest, nor that of anyone I know.”

Certainly not in the convoluted, tangle of coat-hanger wire Tax and Refund crap that we’ve been “sold”.

The most equitable way I see of promoting the effect of pollution on people is to tax at the retail level. Drive a large SUV? Pay a premium at retail upon purchase and you’ll also pay more at the pumps. Buy a lot of tech gizmos? Pay a premium and have retail swallow the disposal costs. So many ways to tax and yet still give people the opportunity to pause and reconsider some of their purchases. Eat red meat? Junk food? Same deal.

The current tax and spend “package” is idiotic. Given the Einsteinian brainpower currently on the hill, small wonder.

#150 Smoking Man on 04.17.19 at 10:10 am

138 Tweak required on 04.17.19 at 8:29 am
‘If a man is not a socialist by the time he is 20, he has no heart. If he is still a socialist at 40, he has no brain.’ – Garth

I would tweak it to:

‘If a man is not a socialist by the time he is 20, he has no heart. If he is still a socialist at 40, he has no money.’ – Garth
….

God damn sexist. It’s people. People kind. Get with the program.

#151 CPC UCP Fordnation are NOT Conservatives on 04.17.19 at 10:13 am

122 Cowtown Cowboy on 04.17.19 at 12:26 am
‘If a man is not a socialist by the time he is 20, he has no heart. If he is still a socialist at 40, he has no brain.’ – Garth

One of my favourite quotes!

———————-

The only problem Garth is we DO NOT have any real conservative parties in Canada. We have Corporate conservatives who preserves corporate wealth at the expense of Canadians. You Garth Turner are a real conservative for the people. This is why corporate fake conservative Harper kicked you out. Harper hated you for wanting Canadians best interests. All the dummies here who think CPC , UCP or idiotnation care about the people are misguided or clueless to grasp reality. I am a conservative but we dont have any in Canada. Maybe PPC is the closest thing to real conservatives but who knows if its all talk. We know the cons in power are all fake but the masses are stupid. Please run for PM Garth and I will gladly vote conservative for the first time.

#152 Shawn Allen on 04.17.19 at 10:17 am

Immigrants and temporary foreign workers are abused by high bank fees to send money to family back home

Canadians squawk about 1.5% fees or whatever to manage investments for an entire year.

Meanwhile nothing is said about fees like 6% and more to electronically send money abroad.

Collusion? Sleeping regulators? There are cheaper ways to do it but maybe not accessible to these vulnerable people.

From Statistics Canada today:

In their last remittance of 2017, Canadian residents born in ODA-eligible countries paid an average transaction fee representing 6% of the total amount transferred
On average, the transaction fees paid by remitters represented 6% of the amount they sent the last time in 2017.

However, the sending costs varied by method of transfer and the amount sent, as transaction fees decline substantially when more money is sent.

For instance, the transaction fees for in-person banking represented 11% of the amount sent if that amount was equal to or less than $200. The fee for remitters who sent from $201 to $999 was 6%. This falls to 2% if the amount sent was $1,000 or more.

The channels used to send money abroad was also associated with sending costs. For example, among remitters who sent from $201 to $999, those who used in-person banking paid 6%, compared with 3% for those who sent a similar amount but used an online money transfer store.

#153 Slim on 04.17.19 at 10:21 am

Kenny wins big in Alberta!

The definition of insanity is voting the same way over and over again, and expecting different results.

#154 timp on 04.17.19 at 10:40 am

# 153
The age of the dinosaurs has returned.
On to their next extinction.

#155 Remembrancer on 04.17.19 at 10:40 am

#136 AB Boxster on 04.17.19 at 8:22 am
Kenney will actually defend the interests of Albertans, rather than a pretender like Notley, who is personally, politically and ideologically aligned with every foreign and domestic group working to sabotage Albertas energy industry.
———————————————-
What happens when it turns out there is no global conspiracy and this is just the bust part of the cycle that Alberta should have anticipated given the dynamics of CAN/US domestic and international politics, the major up & down swing of the price of oil world-wide coupled with the meta tides of a world eventually moving on to other things for one reason or another in the long term (that I have no desire to debate with you)?

Case in point, you know why our host got a sweet bank building to renovate right? Part of it at least has got to be that the area around Lunenburg, N.S. isn’t the former ship building powerhouse it once was and the bank doesn’t need to be a downtown temple and fortress for commerce… Things change and it turns out the demand for kick-ass schooners isn’t as high as it used to be… you move on and adapt or not, as the grandson of a coal miner I don’t need a lecture on the energy extraction economy either, thank you.

#156 n1tro on 04.17.19 at 10:42 am

#148 Tater on 04.17.19 at 9:39 am

I get snippy with idiots, it is a character flaw.

You, an individual employee CAN know what the minimum is by statute. You CAN’T know what the minimum is from court judgments, unless you spend a bunch of time doing research. The easy way to solve this problem is to hire an expert to do that research, we call them lawyers. Considering the gap between statutory minimums and court minimums can be very large, this is a good practice to follow.

In my case the statutory minimum was 24 weeks, the company’s offer was 30 and the lawyer suggested 45 was more appropriate. We sent a letter back and got 40. The difference between the legal by statute amount and the final amount was right around 6 figures. Well worth 2k or so in legal fees.

You, a chump, would have said 30>24 and taken it. Confirming your chumpery for all to see.
————–
Have you ever consider going into politics? Your self belief of how smart you are compared to others and the naming calling would make you quite a great Liberal. Being such an intellectual gem, it puzzles me why your former company was so eager to cut you while “screwing” you on the way out.

#157 Tater on 04.17.19 at 10:44 am

#152 Shawn Allen on 04.17.19 at 10:17 am
Immigrants and temporary foreign workers are abused by high bank fees to send money to family back home

Canadians squawk about 1.5% fees or whatever to manage investments for an entire year.

Meanwhile nothing is said about fees like 6% and more to electronically send money abroad.

Collusion? Sleeping regulators? There are cheaper ways to do it but maybe not accessible to these vulnerable people.

From Statistics Canada today:

In their last remittance of 2017, Canadian residents born in ODA-eligible countries paid an average transaction fee representing 6% of the total amount transferred
On average, the transaction fees paid by remitters represented 6% of the amount they sent the last time in 2017.

However, the sending costs varied by method of transfer and the amount sent, as transaction fees decline substantially when more money is sent.

For instance, the transaction fees for in-person banking represented 11% of the amount sent if that amount was equal to or less than $200. The fee for remitters who sent from $201 to $999 was 6%. This falls to 2% if the amount sent was $1,000 or more.

The channels used to send money abroad was also associated with sending costs. For example, among remitters who sent from $201 to $999, those who used in-person banking paid 6%, compared with 3% for those who sent a similar amount but used an online money transfer store.
—————————————————————-

As they mention, percentage stats are a bit misleading in the payments space. With a SWIFT costing $20, and a correspondent fee of $20-$50, small transactions have massively high percentage fees when you use the high value banking networks. Pros are that the system is robust and you can trust that money will arrive.

Individuals have a number of different options, but most people don’t know about them and most banks aren’t really conversant in them. People walk into a bank and insist on a wire payment, when an EFT is one tenth or twentieth of the cost. But the bank may not even offer that service to individuals.

Most payment businesses are still built off the legacy high value correspondent banking model, but while reliable, it’s very expensive. And regulatory requirements don’t help at all. The ease with which a payment can trigger a compliance flag is pretty amazing and the legwork to resolve it is with people doing the work. There’s a reason most payments businesses at scale have compliance and ops in lower cost countries.

#158 Alistair McLaughlin on 04.17.19 at 10:50 am

@#25 MF, you don’t really think that the generation that grew up during the 80s recession and came of age during the 90s recession (which lasted 7 years if you count the “jobless recovery” that followed) was “born on third base” do you? Honestly, I don’t know how you would get such in impression. I assume it’s the American media influence. Or perhaps you’re exposed daily through your job to a handful of arrogant GenXers in senior management positions who did do well, and who therefore assume everyone else did too. (You and me both if that’s the case.)

American millennials are almost certainly right to look at GenX as the lucky generation. Not so in Canada. In the US, the 80s and 90s recessions were shorter and shallower, and the booms that followed both were far greater, far more extended affairs. (To be fair, the US did have it rougher from 1970 to 1980.) The US got the “roaring 80s” and the “90s boom”. Canada got less than 2 good years in the 80s (1988 and first half of 1989), and 2.5 good years at the tail end of the 90s. The stories of the boom years in the US do not translate well into Canadian. Not at all. Most others my age (late 40s) will back me up on this.

I say “most” because how one remembers a recession depends entirely on how one experienced it. I do know people my age who remember the 90s and even 80s as nothing but sunshine and roses. They were among the lucky few, who by definition were surrounded by other members of the lucky few club, and so their whole impression of that era is distorted. (I can assure you that while these people are intensely annoying, their experience was not typical for GenX.)

Remember also, that the economy is a lot bigger than the housing market. Just because houses were cheap in the 90s doesn’t mean we were born on third base. I couldn’t afford to buy even a starter shack in crap-hole Winnipeg. And I was far from unique. That’s why everything was so cheap. Because most of us who should have been buying our first homes were too broke. Some did buy and did very well. I assure you they were not typical for their age bracket.

I won’t argue about the house-horny part, because that is undoubtedly true, as it is for boomers and millennials. But to say GenX was born on third base?? Obviously you weren’t there at the time. For many years, there was no third base.

Fortunately (or not) you’ll get your first taste of a true recession sooner or later. Something Canadian millennials – though no fault of their own – have never experienced, but something their American counterparts are all too familiar with. We haven’t had real recessionary conditions in Canada since 1996. Trust me, you’ll look back at 2011-19 as the good times. Because this, right here and now, is about as good about as it ever gets. If you’re not enjoying this economy, fraught with debt and structural problems though it may be, you won’t like what comes next.

Full disclosure: I have never owned a home (too broke when they were cheap, too scared to jump in now that I can afford to), never received an inheritance, nor do I expect one. I’ve just been around long enough to know that there is nowhere to go but down from the conditions we are enjoying right now.

#159 Boomer Bill on 04.17.19 at 10:50 am

#12 Stan Brooks on 04.16.19 at 5:27 pm

“Not everyone. Smart people left long time ago and took their money with them. Remembering Toronto from 20 years ago. The economy was much stronger, the interest rates were 4-6 %, a SFH in a very nice area was 250-270 k, salaries were not much different in terms of net take home pay.”

Those who sold 20 years ago in a nice area for 270k can add a minimum of $1million to the price tag today. Even more in many areas. Several friends have cashed out in the past two years with massive profits, all capital gains free on their primary residence in the GTA. Both are heading for cheaper locations in Ontario and retiring. This explains your angst Stanley. You must have been one of those unfortunate souls who sold for $270K and now realize you lost over a $1 million in capital gains free money…

#160 The Great Gordonski on 04.17.19 at 10:53 am

Even the Liberal welfare/EI controlled slaves of Eastern Canada want Trudeau out. It’s finally happening, a national vomiting of all things Trudeau. Five Conservatives will become six. Poor Little Potato.

Kenney has already set up an office to name and shame Canadians working for American Hate Groups.

” Now we fight back”. I love this guy.

#161 Mattl on 04.17.19 at 10:59 am

#133 Tater

You are bang on. I was terminated w/o cause a few years back. Nitro probably felt I was owed 8 weeks for my 8 years, ended up getting 40 plus full benefits AND legal fee’s paid. Didn’t hurt my career at all, walked into a job 6 weeks later that paid 1.5 times.

Anyone that settles on 1 week per year of service is a fool, and any company that offers that is a bottom feeder.

#162 King Kenney is crowned on 04.17.19 at 11:05 am

Conservatives: 55%
Liberals: 1%

Joyously horrible times for T2.

#163 Penny Henny on 04.17.19 at 11:10 am

#144 Tater on 04.17.19 at 8:58 am
#41 Penny Henny on 04.16.19 at 6:36 pm
#17 Stan Brooks on 04.16.19 at 5:36 pm

Do you know how cancer works? The parasite/cancer cells occupy the blood/money stream and live nothing to the normal cells, so all organ’s healthy cells die.
/////////////////

The only thing more depressing than Stan Brooks is Stan Brooks talking about cancer.
Come to think of it Stan Brooks is a cancer
—————————————————————

As someone who’s lost all 4 grandparents and 1 parent to cancer (plus a dog!), I think that is an awful comparison to make. For cancer.
xxxxxxxxxxxxx

an alternative definition of cancer
-a practice or phenomenon perceived to be evil or destructive and hard to contain or eradicate.
“gambling is a cancer sweeping across the nation”

#164 Alistair McLaughlin on 04.17.19 at 11:18 am

@#142 Howard, read my response to MF above. The 90s were a golden era? You’re either:

A) American, in which case you truly did enjoy a golden era in the 1990s. If that’s the case, carry on.
B) Canadian, but too young to remember the 90s, or maybe too young to remember anything but the very late 90s, which informed your understanding of the entire decade.

As I mentioned above, the “90s boom” was a US thing. In Canada, we only joined the game in very late innings. Don’t take my word for it. Delve into the Macleans Archives (they’re free). Go to 1995 or 96 issues, and read the articles. All about joblessness, stagnation, income declines…. There’s a February 1995 issue that is particularly poignant. It shows thousands of people (yes, thousands, the lineup disappears into the hazy background of the picture)standing in line in the freezing cold to apply for factory jobs. They’d been there for days.

You might be tempted to reply, “Well at least you had factory jobs back then!” To which I would reply, “Not those people. That’s why they were camped out in line in the freezing cold.”

Did you see any lineups like that last winter? Or even during the financial crisis in 2009? If you did, those lineups were for presale houses or condos, not jobs.

#165 n1tro on 04.17.19 at 11:41 am

#161 Mattl on 04.17.19 at 10:59 am
#133 Tater

You are bang on. I was terminated w/o cause a few years back. Nitro probably felt I was owed 8 weeks for my 8 years, ended up getting 40 plus full benefits AND legal fee’s paid. Didn’t hurt my career at all, walked into a job 6 weeks later that paid 1.5 times.

Anyone that settles on 1 week per year of service is a fool, and any company that offers that is a bottom feeder.
——————-
Please don’t infer to what think is appropriate for what you are owed as an argument to your situation. Like I said before, most companies give more than what is required. This isn’t to say that amount is what is owed. If you feel you are being screwed, then take it to a lawyer and see. But as another poster has commented, companies are ran by other people like you and me, so if you think everyone is out to screw you, then lawyer up. My experience is that the packages given (cause or without cause) well exceed what is owed because the last thing any sane company would want is to do is incur legal fees to defend a fair settlement but it happens as in your experiences.

#166 Tater on 04.17.19 at 11:47 am

156 n1tro on 04.17.19 at 10:42 am
#148 Tater on 04.17.19 at 9:39 am

I get snippy with idiots, it is a character flaw.

You, an individual employee CAN know what the minimum is by statute. You CAN’T know what the minimum is from court judgments, unless you spend a bunch of time doing research. The easy way to solve this problem is to hire an expert to do that research, we call them lawyers. Considering the gap between statutory minimums and court minimums can be very large, this is a good practice to follow.

In my case the statutory minimum was 24 weeks, the company’s offer was 30 and the lawyer suggested 45 was more appropriate. We sent a letter back and got 40. The difference between the legal by statute amount and the final amount was right around 6 figures. Well worth 2k or so in legal fees.

You, a chump, would have said 30>24 and taken it. Confirming your chumpery for all to see.
————–
Have you ever consider going into politics? Your self belief of how smart you are compared to others and the naming calling would make you quite a great Liberal. Being such an intellectual gem, it puzzles me why your former company was so eager to cut you while “screwing” you on the way out.
—————————————————————
Oh, look who’s decided to expose their character now?

I know why they did it. It’s ok, though. Making double now and far happier. Some organizations are just toxic.

And you could have simply admitted you’re wrong, and gone on your way. You decided to drag this out and expose your ignorance.

And, yes, I’m smarter than you. And yep, I can be an @sshole. But again, I tend to reserve it for people who are wrong.

#167 IHCTD9 on 04.17.19 at 11:51 am

#102 Giver – AB on 04.16.19 at 6:09 pm

OK, one more. But this is the last one.

A quick google search suggest that poverty level income for a family of 3 in Canada is 38K but that is based on 2015 data. I would assume that number increases for a family of 5.

link: https://www.ctvnews.ca/mobile/canada/census-children-make-up-one-quarter-of-4-8m-canadians-living-in-poverty-1.3587472

Again, different reads… What you seem to see as a gravy train, I see as slightly over poverty level income.
____

This lady doesn’t make 38K, she nets the equivalent of a 70+K gross income in financial benefits between her ex and the CCB.

Is 70K goss like, a crap income to you?

By the time all her kids pass 18, this Woman will have collected well over HALF A MILLION tax free dollars worth of financial support without so much as a single productive hour of work being done.

This isn’t a poverty level income – this is winning the lottery.

She nets over DOUBLE the gross median individual income without lifting a finger.

Between the government and her ex, this lady is cruising on the gravy 401. She has won the gravy Super7. Just about everyone at my employer nets less than her even after actually working a 40 hour work week.

No offense Giver – but you must be filthy rich or have horrible math skills to think like you do. I mean, who thinks a 70K gross income equivalent is “slightly over poverty level income”? Warren Buffet? Aristotle Onassis?

Ask your average Joe on the street if a 70K salary is a good income in Canada – your education will be swift.

#168 JonBoy on 04.17.19 at 12:06 pm

What I found most interesting about the election in Alberta was how far off the CBC polls were in terms of “percentages of the vote” for each party.

Before the votes were counted (Tuesday morning), they were saying 48% for UCP and 38% for NDP. Throughout the previous weeks, they’d been hyping an NDP comeback and continued gains in the polls.

Actual vote percentages? 55% UCP and 32% NDP. Instead of a spread of 10%, it turned out to be 23%.

Just like the US presidential election, how is it that they missed the actual voting trend so badly? Only one answer: confirmation bias. They were polling or interpreting to match what they wanted to see/hear, not what was actually being said.

I can’t say how many CBC stories I saw that glossed over Rachel Notley’s missteps and problems to focus on Jason Kenney supposedly having 48 “fraudulent” votes (despite winning by over 17,000 votes in the leadership race – ie, it didn’t make a difference).

Truth be told, I think Rachel is more honest than Jason but that’s like saying tiger shark is more friendly than a great white shark. They’re both politicians and they’re both liars. But Rachel made a lot of very public, very obvious mistakes that hurt the province badly and I saw far less discussion or reminding of those mistakes in the last month or so, especially.

Mainstream media really has lost their objectivity. I’m glad Jason won because AB needed someone that realizes you can’t turn off the car engine and then expect to get anywhere. Rachel helped kill an energy industry that was already struggling, yet expected the economy to somehow pay for all of her social programs and green plans. Idiotic and naive.

Make no mistake, though – Jason isn’t a saint and I’m betting he’ll have a few scandals (of an ethical nature) throughout his term(s). However, he’ll be focused on leveraging Alberta’s strengths rather than minimizing them and trying to make Alberta something it is not.

Having the NDP as the Opposition is a great balance. Alberta does need to try and diversify but they need to do it on the backs of the energy industry, using that economic engine as the basis to solidify its financial standing rather than killing that economic engine and trying to pay for change with dreams and wishes…

Next step: get rid of Trudeau.

#169 Gravy Train on 04.17.19 at 12:18 pm

#155 Remembrancer on 04.17.19 at 10:40 am
“[…] that I have no desire to debate with you[….] I don’t need a lecture on the energy extraction economy either, thank you.” Ooh, you picked a fight with AB Boxster; expect an earful! I still have battle scars from previous encounters—and all the while I was just trying to help the guy with his finances! :P

#170 Mattl on 04.17.19 at 12:19 pm

#158 Alistair:

“Fortunately (or not) you’ll get your first taste of a true recession sooner or later. Something Canadian millennials – though no fault of their own – have never experienced, but something their American counterparts are all too familiar with. We haven’t had real recessionary conditions in Canada since 1996. Trust me, you’ll look back at 2011-19 as the good times. Because this, right here and now, is about as good about as it ever gets. If you’re not enjoying this economy, fraught with debt and structural problems though it may be, you won’t like what comes next.”

Amen, this is wisdom right here.The last 10-15 years has been gravy for most Canadians. I’ve been a hiring manager for 15 years and we have always struggled to find good talent, and have been overpaying mediocre talent forever.

Sure cost of living has gone up substantially but that’s because it’s been pretty easy for most people. This recent housing boom has been the greatest wealth creation event the middle class will see in a long time. The idea that a crash / recession will help middle class Canadians is asinine and those cheering for it lack perspective.

Sure homes will be cheap because….. there will be no one with enough money to buy them. Well that’s not true, the rich will get richer. Look at the US post 2008, home ownership rates went down and are just starting to recover.

#171 Howard on 04.17.19 at 12:38 pm

#164 Alistair McLaughlin on 04.17.19 at 11:18 am

——————————————-

Hmm yes and what were housing costs for the young Gen-Xers in the 90s? I’ll wait.

The early-90s were a time of crippling recession, especially in Ontario where the Bob Rae government made matters worse than in other parts of the country. The instability of the 1995 Quebec referendum likely did much to deter investment – this was the peak of the brain drain to the US along with a $0.62 USD Canadian dollar.

On the other hand, unemployment declined precipitously throughout the decade and by 1999 was under 8%. Salaries lagged in Canada as they always do but in an era of dirt-cheap housing, the lack of wage increases was not nearly so problematic as it is today.

In 2000 the median household income in Canada was $50K. By 2016 it was $82K. I couldn’t find data specific to Toronto or Vancouver but one can assume a similar percentage rise.

Remind me again how much housing increased over that same period?

#172 Remembrancer on 04.17.19 at 12:47 pm

#168 JonBoy on 04.17.19 at 12:06 pm

So some random facts make up a CBC conspiracy? Talk about confirmation bias sunshine. You a sore loser or a sore winner? Maybe, with the Trump note a foreign election agitator? Come back w/ facts maybe…

First the results – yep you got that…
~55% UCP and ~32% NDP
https://results.elections.ab.ca/wtResultsPGE.htm

Hey look, around the kickoff time of serious polling here’s CBC Mar 21… Their polling aggregator had UCP 50% and NDP 35%…
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/grenier-alberta-polltracker-1.5064584

As to any intervening coverage, I don’t care about this enough to track day-to-day and argue it with you, just calling BS on your overall thesis and you’re attempt to discredit broad swathes of media with this soft core lying press tripe…

Besides like they say, the only poll that matters is on election day…

#173 IHCTD9 on 04.17.19 at 12:52 pm

#165 n1tro on 04.17.19 at 11:41 am
#161 Mattl on 04.17.19 at 10:59 am
#133 Tater

Please don’t infer to what think is appropriate for what you are owed as an argument to your situation. Like I said before, most companies give more than what is required. This isn’t to say that amount is what is owed. If you feel you are being screwed, then take it to a lawyer and see. But as another poster has commented, companies are ran by other people like you and me, so if you think everyone is out to screw you, then lawyer up. My experience is that the packages given (cause or without cause) well exceed what is owed because the last thing any sane company would want is to do is incur legal fees to defend a fair settlement but it happens as in your experiences.
___

I agree – I’ve never seen a company offer less than double the minimum, and more often triple. I have seen several cases where outgoing employees have screwed the company good though…

Looking at Taters Post – his weekly income must have been around 6250.00 – so he’s a 1%’er. You I think, are like me – a regular working schmuck making nowhere near than kind of scratch. That changes the whole debate. It’s a no brainer to pay 2K for a legal letter to get a good shot at ~100K. Big corps are a lot less personal too.

You and I might garner only an extra few grand. Myself, I WOULD suffer for suing my ex-employer, small business, small local industry, small towns. So it’s probably a no brainer for guys like us to NOT Lawyer up most times.

Two totally different ballgames.

#174 TurnerNation on 04.17.19 at 1:05 pm

Sales of Truck Nutz soar today in Alberta.
The natural order has been restored.

#175 Tater on 04.17.19 at 1:12 pm

#163 Penny Henny on 04.17.19 at 11:10 am
#144 Tater on 04.17.19 at 8:58 am
#41 Penny Henny on 04.16.19 at 6:36 pm
#17 Stan Brooks on 04.16.19 at 5:36 pm

Do you know how cancer works? The parasite/cancer cells occupy the blood/money stream and live nothing to the normal cells, so all organ’s healthy cells die.
/////////////////

The only thing more depressing than Stan Brooks is Stan Brooks talking about cancer.
Come to think of it Stan Brooks is a cancer
—————————————————————

As someone who’s lost all 4 grandparents and 1 parent to cancer (plus a dog!), I think that is an awful comparison to make. For cancer.
xxxxxxxxxxxxx

an alternative definition of cancer
-a practice or phenomenon perceived to be evil or destructive and hard to contain or eradicate.
“gambling is a cancer sweeping across the nation”
——————————————————-
My joke was that it is unfair to cancer to compare it to Stan. Ie Stan is worse than cancer.

#176 Boots on the ground in Ptown on 04.17.19 at 1:16 pm

Gov subsidized low income housing via vouchers stateside.

https://m.seattlepi.com/news/article/District-of-Columbia-housed-homeless-in-upscale-13772620.php

Surely none of the landlords are incentivised to get tenants the door at above market prices, paid for by gov, right?

I’m all for finding solutions for homelessness. Cried when I watched Seattle is Dying. But people through cracks with these kind of solutions. Seattle is Dying docu had a much better solution, if you watch it to the very end.

#177 IHCTD9 on 04.17.19 at 1:17 pm

#158 Alistair McLaughlin on 04.17.19 at 10:50 am
____

Good post. I agree the experience colours your recollection. I got out of College and started what would become my career job in 1996. I was after a Public job, but I remember everyone was laid off at the time. I ended up (like many of my peers) getting a job outside my area of study.

By 1998 I was married, by 2001 I was a homeowner, and, by 2002 I was a Dad. I look back and remember a mostly bump free ride. Money was tight some years. I held onto that first job for 15 years too – before the place went down the drain right after the GFC.

I do remember the gloom you speak of, but it seemed to be in the background for me. My memories recall houses that were easy to afford, having a decent job, having enough leftover to invest some, doing well overall – better even than some of my peers who moved to the GTA (although when they sell their homes – they may well “win” in the end after all…)

I also think Millennials are only really getting the shaft if they live in big cities. The young folks out here seem to be doing fine. They are way ahead of where we were at their age as far as owning nice things goes…

#178 Shawn Allen on 04.17.19 at 1:18 pm

Who has lost their objectivity?

Jonboy at 168 said

Mainstream media really has lost their objectivity.

*****************
That is an ironic statement given that it passes global failing judgement on pretty much every traditional media outlet. I mean the term Mainstreet media is always meant as an insult is it not?

As far as polls, it is almost impossible to get a random sample and is impossible to get a random sample of people who will in fact actually vote. So that, rather than bias could be the problem.

#179 Shawn Allen on 04.17.19 at 1:24 pm

Tater at 157 responded about high fees to transfer moaney out of Canada

“Most payment businesses are still built off the legacy high value correspondent banking model, but while reliable, it’s very expensive. ”

**********************
Thank you. That is good information. I have sent money using Knightsbridge FX. TD does not allow them on their bill payment list (other banks do). So, I had to send a wire transfer. That required me to go into the bank to do it. How archaic! One bank branch at TD really tried to scare me into not doing it saying the money might get lost. Totally unhelpful.

#180 Eks dee Siple on 04.17.19 at 1:30 pm

148 Tater… Confirming your chumpery for all to see.
How does that work? We’re supposed to believe an anonymous fool on the internet and what severance he negotiated? All we know is you hired a lawyer to get more than the minimum. ooookaaay How does that make nitro a chump? You sir, are nothing more than a prick.

#181 Eks dee Siple on 04.17.19 at 1:38 pm

Can’t wait to revisit nonplused’s posts in 3 or 4 years and watch him eat it… haha open for business means letting in more american and chinese corporations, what a province, feel bad for the sane ones, get out while you can?

#182 Eks dee Siple on 04.17.19 at 1:47 pm

IHTCHY… By the time all her kids pass 18, this Woman will have collected well over HALF A MILLION tax free dollars worth of financial support without so much as a single productive hour of work being done.

——–???—— raising 4 kids alone is not productive? What is your problem? Wait, you probably think she is an immigrant, right? Easy targets for you I guess?

Drug Ford wasted 30 million on attack ads. That could have fed and clothed ONE THOUSAND such single parent households for a year. Like actual kids who need food and clothing and shelter… You do understand that, right? But they will go on living in poverty in Ontario whilst being attacked by rural rodeo men in their Eastern Ontario compounds surrounded by their toys.

#183 DM in C on 04.17.19 at 1:56 pm

#25.

Yeah, so lucky. Graduated Uni in ’92 to an awful recession — the only job offer I had was for $18k/year. Went up to $27k in four years — oooo, making bank there.

Bought a money pit of a house in ’99. Bankruptcy in 2001 because of it.

Rented until we moved to Calgary, but landed here just went house prices went parabolic (’06). So didn’t buy. Bought just after the flood when prices declined. Sold for hefty profit five years later, and now renting.

Admittedly saving $5k/month into TFSA and RRSP (until we run out of room). So I guess we are lucky. Generational envy works because there’s always someone else to blame.

#184 NoName on 04.17.19 at 1:57 pm

Danny, you bastige (compliment) wrote a book about psychology than got noble price for economy… go figure that one out
Apparently in his reserch he figure it out that we postponed hapynes for later. How trugh…

https://qz.com/1503207/a-nobel-prize-winning-psychologist-defines-happiness-versus-satisfaction/

while we are steel on a topic of happines and celebration, i see what you did there…
https://imgur.com/a/DLKzQ0m

#185 Ray on 04.17.19 at 2:23 pm

My wife and I went to the bottom level of the Osiris Shaft this morning. It and the Serapeam are conclusive evidence an ancient civilization ,with much superior technology to ours now,once lived on earth. The evidence suggests this was perhaps 12-15,000 years ago. It makes one humble ,and makes most of our current problems small in this perspective.

#186 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.17.19 at 2:43 pm

@#182 ecch dee simple
“Drug Ford wasted 30 million on attack ads. That could have fed and clothed ONE THOUSAND such single parent households for a year.”

++++

My my.
Methinks Thou doth protest to loudly.

Perhaps if every single parent wasnt able to run to the govt for another handout when their cigarette money ran out before welfare Wednesday……?
The govt wouldnt be in such a fiscal bind?

You keep arguing about the necessity of money for single parents when you fail to admit WHERE the money is coming from..
Govt ? Hardly.
AFTER they tax the crap out of the middle class.
Perhaps people should realize the taxpayer trough is empty?
Especially when the unmarried, unemployed “parental” units keep popping out sprogs to increase their child support rates?
Nah.
Taxpayers have had enough with tax money shovelled at people who are 3rd generation welfare sitting around all day with nothing to do but have kids.

Its too easy to blame the govt, and taxpayers who are fed up at the entire expensive “support system” for single “parents” who are too stupid( or too lazy) to either wear a condom or take the Pill before engaging in the horizontal tango.

Your social justice warrior princess routine ain’t cutting it here and as the middle class taxpayer base continues to shrink into tax induced poverty….and judging by the massive voter swings to the Right in the past few Provincial elections……

Fewer and fewer people will listening to the “equality for all” SJW screeching.

Grow up.
Life isnt fair.
EARN what you deserve instead of standing with your hand out waiting and whining.

#187 Tater on 04.17.19 at 2:49 pm

#180 Eks dee Siple on 04.17.19 at 1:30 pm
148 Tater… Confirming your chumpery for all to see.
How does that work? We’re supposed to believe an anonymous fool on the internet and what severance he negotiated? All we know is you hired a lawyer to get more than the minimum. ooookaaay How does that make nitro a chump? You sir, are nothing more than a prick.
————————————————————
oh no, the weirdo with the yellow comments called me a prick!

Accepting the first offer a company makes to an individual is, generally, a chump move. True for settlements, salaries, severance etc. The power of information asymmetry is very much working against you. If you choose to do nothing about that, you’re a chump.

Based on your strong reaction, I’m getting a chumpy vibe from you….

#188 Sold Out on 04.17.19 at 3:00 pm

My 2 cents on the “who was born on 3rd base” debate…

I’m a first year (’65) Gen X’er who grew up in a small community – <3000 pop, mostly hippies – no uni, shacked up by 19. No jobs, so me and the SO started our own business, and I completed my TQ. While starting said business, we also started building our own house, you know – in all the spare time one has as a new business owner. When I say build our own house, I mean: fall trees on property, mill trees into dimensional lumber with scary portable mill, pour foundation by hand, frame, etc. Banks wouldn't lend money for mortgages in our little community, it was considered recreational property – all done in cash to lock up stage.

At lock-up, we managed to qualify for builders financing by some very creative means not employed by sane people. I don't recall the interest rate, but it was 1990 so it was likely double digits. The payments were crushing on our unpredictable income. We lived on oatmeal and didn't eat meat for weeks at time. No car or TV. Did I mention that we built the house in our spare time? Well, short story long, we split up, sold the house for $60,000 profit. My cut worked out to about 25 cents an hour for my trouble.

3rd base, my a$$.

PS: IHCTD9 – politically, we'd get along like 2 cats in a sack, but I admire your DIY cred

F53BC

#189 Alistair McLaughlin on 04.17.19 at 3:22 pm

@#171 Howard, I addressed the cheap housing issue directly when I replied to MF. “Cheap housing” means nothing when both interest rates and unemployment rates are high. Don’t confuse cheap housing with good times.

Yes, the unemployment rate declined throughout the rest of the 1990s after it peaked in late 1992 at 12.1%, but it didn’t go down in a straight line, nor was it a rapid decline. It remained above 9% until mid-1997, and was as high as 8.2% as late as April of 1999 (I’m staring at the long term chart right now). Like I said, the 90s had 3 good years – 1997-99. Everything before that was either stagnation or outright decline.

Another thing that should be mentioned, people don’t just start living it up the second the good times return. There’s a long convalescence period after a brutal recession, in which people must leverage the improved economy just to claw their way back to some reasonable standard of living. That takes several years. I lived it, and so did many others my age.

Not everyone suffered. Several of my friends graduated from IT programs in the mid-90s and moved to the US within a year of graduation. They took advantage of the new NAFTA TN1 and TN2 visas and ran with it. They saw ZERO opportunity staying in Canada, but did very well for themselves down there. Up here, things moved a lot slower.

But sure, tell me about those “cheap houses” again, as if the entire economy was somehow better just because of that. I wish houses were cheap today. I just don’t look forward to all the other miserable conditions that will need to return first for that to happen.

Good times are funny that way. Not unlike the bubbles that often accompany them, we tend not to realize we are in them until referring to them in the past tense. Trust me, these are the good times. Enjoy it. Things will get real soon enough.

#190 IHCTD9 on 04.17.19 at 3:29 pm

#182 Eks dee Siple on 04.17.19 at 1:47 pm

“——–???—— raising 4 kids alone is not productive?”

Sure it is – but she doesn’t get paid to raise her own bloody kids right? Ya?

“What is your problem?”

I don’t want to pay 100% of the cost to raise her kids. I already get to pay 100% of the cost to raise my own kids. She can do what every other human being has done since we crawled out of the primordial ooze. Get a damn job. No it won’t be a walk in the park – welcome to the planet.

“Wait, you probably think she is an immigrant, right? Easy targets for you I guess?”

A divorced immigrant Woman with 4 kids from the Middle East, China or India? I don’t think so. These folks are the LEAST likely to get divorced in our society. They are hard targets, not easy ones.

No, if I had to guess, she’s one of our many, Western born Caucasian females, divorced; and with kids.

Couple hundred a month? No problem.

32K+ per year? Pass.

#191 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.17.19 at 3:46 pm

@#185 Ray
“My wife and I went to the bottom level of the Osiris Shaft this morning…….”
*****

Wrong Blog.
You want Dr. Ruth.

#192 AACI Home-Dog on 04.17.19 at 4:09 pm

#22; Bob’s Ur Uncle
Kootenay BC stats overall show sales volume down 12% in March, yoy.
Average price up to $350k; so the market is quite affordable (compared to others in BC).
Prices rising as a result; modestly, however, as is typical in our little corner of BC.

#193 AACI Home-Dog on 04.17.19 at 4:11 pm

Oh, also number of listings down 10% or so yoy.
8.5 months of inventory on the market; a bit below 10 year average.
cheers; rt

#194 Sail away on 04.17.19 at 4:29 pm

#166 Tater on 04.17.19 at 11:47 am “And, yes, I’m smarter than you.”
#187 Tater on 04.17.19 at 2:49 pm

Congratulations, Tater, on your lofty intellect and incredible achievements. It’s nice that you don’t let modesty hold you back, because if you didn’t clearly point it out, your greatness might go unnoticed.

They say everyone is a hero in their own mind, but you, sir, might actually be a true hero.

#195 RyYYZ on 04.17.19 at 5:17 pm

#158 Alistair McLaughlin on 04.17.19 at 10:50 am

That’s what I was thinking. What was so great about being Gen X? I graduated university in ’94, just in time for federal gov’t budget reductions and massive downloading to the provinces, that resulted in spending cuts by the provinces. Fortunately, given that I graduated in computer science, and the WWW was just a year or two away from really taking off, it wasn’t too bad.

I do wish I had scraped together my pennies for a down payment and bought a house back in the early ’00s.

#196 Sold Out on 04.17.19 at 5:29 pm

Wow, maybe this explains Drug Fraud. Even scarier, it could be employed to resurrect his brother.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/pig-brains-death-1.5101987

#197 JonBoy on 04.17.19 at 5:31 pm

#172 Remembrancer on 04.17.19 at 12:47 pm
#168 JonBoy on 04.17.19 at 12:06 pm

So some random facts make up a CBC conspiracy? Talk about confirmation bias sunshine. You a sore loser or a sore winner? Maybe, with the Trump note a foreign election agitator? Come back w/ facts maybe…

First the results – yep you got that…
~55% UCP and ~32% NDP
https://results.elections.ab.ca/wtResultsPGE.htm

———————–

You didn’t read what I said, you just went off on me.

I said that ON THE DAY OF THE ELECTION, the polls were showing 48% UCP and 38% NDP. Why? The actual results were nowhere near those levels.

You, in fact, made my point for me. The news/polls STARTED correct and they slowly moved the needle (week by week) to where it wasn’t even close.

Like I said, how did they get the polls so wrong? They narrowed it by 13% (or more than HALF the actual gap) when, in fact, it didn’t narrow at all.

I didn’t vote – I don’t live in Alberta (but I did relatively recently) – but I’d have voted for Jason Kenney just to get the NDP out of power.

Not a sore loser or winner, just pointing out that CBC moved the polls and yet, in reality, the polls hadn’t moved at all.

Again, thanks for making my point for me.