Bliss

Spring. Hormones. Flowers. Rutting season. Running of the saps. Given the retreat of the snow and the coming of warmth – and the fact this blog has been dour and prickly of late – let’s rock. Herewith, a few things to send you into the weekend blissed, not pissed.

No recession. Not even close.

That was the word Friday from the eggheads at Scotia economics. Remember that “inverted yield curve” that had all the Nobel-winning macroeconomists on this blog convinced we were heading into a recession, with suicide the only reasonable option? Turns out it was a false alarm.

The bank confirms what my Porsche-driving, trophy-wife-hugging fancy portfolio manager colleagues have been saying for a while. The upside-down yield curve predicts nothing. Not with certainty. Especially when it comes to Canada. Short-term rates have moved higher than the yield of long-term bonds lots of times. And. Nothing. Happened.

Check out this bit of history:

“The curve has been inverted for 75 out of 148 years since the start of the historical data set in 1871. Since 1950, the curve has been inverted 21 out of 68 years or about one-third of the time. So clearly the frequency of recessions before the post-WWI period distorts things, but either way, the slope spends much more time inverted than the US economy spends in recession.”

The recession talk was overdone and based on flawed data plus weak minds and a lot of evil people on BNN who exist to scare you. Ignore them. The bank says economic growth will continue in both Canada and the US, job creation will remain strong, Trump will hump everything he can to push markets higher, while more trade deals, a softer Brexit and rising commodity values will keep the party going.

The forecast: one more Fed interest rate hike by early next year. One Bank of Canada increase this year and another in 2020. As for a rate cut: “At this point that would seem to be an absurdly unwise frittering away of precious bullets that may be needed to counter potential future problems.”

As stated here recently, if you want a cheap mortgage then take advantage of the current competition and some crazy-low rates. You could be waiting years for anything better.

Mr. Market’s laughing at you

…if you listened to the Chicken Littles and bailed out of perfectly-good investment assets last Christmas, that is. All that moaning and gnashing about markets going to zero, about a new 2008-type crisis and the wisdom of cash turns out to be wasted emotion. This pathetic blog told you in the final months of 2018 to ignore the noise, stay the course and maintain a balanced and diversified portfolio. We gave you examples of scared people who sold assets into a storm, turning a paper loss into a real one. Bad move, we said. ‘Not so fast,’ the rabble roared in response. ‘She’s going down…’

So here we are at the end of Q1, 2019. The noise has ended. The sun came back. The economy grew. The markets roared. A balanced portfolio – down maybe 3% after the big sell-off late last year that clobbered stocks – has swelled 7% or so in the last 90 days.

For the year to date the TSX has gained 12%, the Dow is up 13%, the S&P 500 has jumped 15.8% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq has advanced 20%. For the past 12 months Bay Street is up 11% and Wall Street has added 10%.

Hope you didn’t give this up for a 2-3% GIC with fully-taxed returns. Next time don’t fall for it.

Never, ever short the banks

That’s a lesson many are learning, and more will soon. Canadian bank stocks have jumped close to 10% this year, at the same time silly investors have bet hundreds of millions against them through short-selling. (Shorts borrow stocks they think will decline, sell them, then hope to buy them back at a discount later, returning them to the broker and pocketing the difference.)

The shorts have fallen for the meme that Canadian real estate will crash since households carry staggering debt, mortgage originations have collapsed and the big banks will see earnings tank as a wave of defaults washes over them.

Of course, ain’t happening. The market will melt, not crash, with softening sales and prices. A lot of families will slip underwater on their loans, but they won’t walk. People would rather eat drywall than surrender their keys. Besides, most mortgages in Canada are recourse loans (no jingle mail) and CMHC backstops the lion’s share of high-ratio borrowings. Moreover, the banks have had a decade to prepare for this, and have greatly expanded their operations to non-residential real estate areas.

So, the Great White Short, as it’s known, is a bust. Without some dino-killing eco-event taking place, Canada’s banks will continue to make oodles of money, propel Bay Street higher, and pay investors fat, tax-advantaged dividends

So, lighten up. Go out and romp. Remember the sun screen.

113 comments ↓

#1 The Wet One on 04.12.19 at 4:49 pm

Condo sold!

Woot!

Not a great price, but one more debt off the balance sheet and some more money in my jeans at close.

Yay me.

Now.

Just gotta be sure they close…

Hmmm….

#2 The Wet One on 04.12.19 at 4:53 pm

Also diversified internationally on the last dip and up about 5% plus dividends (a 5.5 or so yield).

So yay me.

But I have kid now, so more money out the door.

Diapers.

So.

Many.

Diapers.

Lordy!

#3 Paolo on 04.12.19 at 5:03 pm

Fun times ahead…

Stay the course.

#4 Jimmy on 04.12.19 at 5:10 pm

Re: #1

Hasn’t even closed??

“Well let’s not start s…… each others d…. quite yet! “
(Pulp Fiction)

#5 raisemyrent on 04.12.19 at 5:12 pm

sorry Garth, but do people still say Trophy wife?

#6 Boombust on 04.12.19 at 5:27 pm

“Slow melt?”, “No crash?”

Not here in Vancouver. It’s a full-b;own crash, alright.

#7 Djumbe on 04.12.19 at 5:29 pm

Nice pic of Henry and Baloo!

#8 Dave on 04.12.19 at 5:33 pm

Real estate salee are in the complete dumps in Vancouver, prices ate dropping like crazy. By the end of 2019, it might get to affordable levels

#9 mitzerboyakaQueencitykidd on 04.12.19 at 5:35 pm

Its Friday I’m in luv

#10 Ronaldo on 04.12.19 at 5:42 pm

31 Ronaldo on 02.02.19 at 5:26 pm

My prediction is XIU will be up 20% by years end from Dec. 24/18. Already up 13%. Energy, metals and mining and health care will rule the day.
—————————————————————-
The above was my prediction on Feb. 2/19 re: XIU. It is up 19.22% from Dec. 24th. I didn’t expect it to get there so quickly but what a payoff it has been. For the guy that bailed out and into cash bet he is sorry he did that.

#11 SimplyPut7 on 04.12.19 at 5:44 pm

The forecast: one more Fed interest rate hike by early next year. One Bank of Canada increase this year and another in 2020.

—–
Okay so we’re safe for 2019.

But if we really get two more rate hikes before most of the condos in the GTA and YVR are completed, exactly which banks will be lending the speculators the money they need to close their transactions?

#12 Dolce Vita on 04.12.19 at 5:44 pm

Agree on the inverted yield curve hypothesis. Right up there with the efficacy of “Assume a can opener” (link below for that Economist “in joke”).

BUT:

“And. Nothing. Happened.”

YET.

“Mr. Market’s laughing at you”

Recall, Mr. Market is the submissive bottom of whips, chains, leather and stilettos Dominatrix:

Madame Consumer

She always gets the last laugh (and lash), as always.

She is in an ugly mood at present, having dug her heals in on not only Mr. Market (Real Estate for now) but also on spending.

Recession.

Declared by May 2019. Too late by then. We are in it now.

———————————————

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assume_a_can_opener

———————————————

Buonanotte from “no bondage” Italia.

#13 Reximus on 04.12.19 at 5:47 pm

the 416 house market won’t even melt, too many buyers for that at these low rates

but I hope the specs have been scared off. It was making actual occupant buyers act crazy

#14 Alessio on 04.12.19 at 5:49 pm

Sunscreen? It’s been frigid, snowy, rainy, cloudy for 9 months straight now.

And why do u delete my comments – I keep them constructive with a hint of sarcasm. Like you bro!

#15 IHCTD9 on 04.12.19 at 5:50 pm

#71 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.12.19 at 8:14 am
@#69 IHCTD9
“That’s just nuts, more than I’ve ever paid for gas anywhere.”

++++
Yep.
Carbon tax, Transit Levy, local taxes, etc….oh and every year the oil co’s announce that a refinery of one sort or another is “down for maintenance”.
I expect some sort of “emergency” at another refinery some time in the near future so they can bump the price to $1.75 -1.85.
A friend just bought a 3/4 ton diesel pickup to haul the trailer, dirt bikes and camper around.
That’ll be minimum $150 to fill for what 500kms/tank?

Dont get me started on my govt car insurance.
I renew next week. $1950/year with my 42% safe driving “discount”.
The ICBC fiscal “dumpster fire” that just keeps on sucking money into the vortex of over staffed, over paid slothful, lazy govt employees
——-

Good grief kids, stay away from BC. Is that public insurance then? We have private brokers in Ontario. The insurance on my truck is like 500.00/yr with 2 mil liability and collision, with 500.00 deductible.

My truck has an 8.1 litre V8 (that’s 496 cubic inches for you yanks on the blog). It averages about 23litres/100 km (10.2 mpg) empty just driving around. I’m betting not too many of these dinosaurs out in BC. Good guess, I get about 480 per tank.

1.16 on the way home today, which translates into about 1.06 or so on the local Rez…

At least you’re making big bucks out there to compensate, but from what I’m reading; you are one of the few in YVR killing the median.

Bring Cash!!!

#16 Mike on 04.12.19 at 5:52 pm

I am hearing/seeing in certain circles that the markets doing so well currently are on the basis of stock buybacks not due to fundamentals and at the same time real unemployment is growing and store closures are happening at accelerating rates.

Kind of difficult to actually determine what it going on currently.

#17 Kelowna on 04.12.19 at 5:52 pm

I have been reading, enjoying and learning from your blog Garth for a good 10 years and your message is always the same – don’t re-act to short term trends, stay balanced and diversified and ignore the sensationalism in the press. What astounds me though is that so many in the comment section still argue with this advice each and every time a “bump in the road” happens!

#18 Lawnboy on 04.12.19 at 5:54 pm

The pooch pic today reminds me of the “Hair club for Men”……”I can swim with it – looks perfectly natural”.

Garth knows man, Garth knows.

ps. I resemble this remark.

LB

#19 renter in Surrey on 04.12.19 at 5:57 pm

#8 Dave on 04.12.19 at 5:33 pm
Real estate salee are in the complete dumps in Vancouver, prices ate dropping like crazy. By the end of 2019, it might get to affordable levels
———————————————————————————

it’s because everybody wants to live in Langley now
prices in the valley are not moving down at all

#20 The Great Gazoo on 04.12.19 at 6:02 pm

Can your dog do this? I’ll bet they took quite a few runs at this before the dog was eventually successful. Still, pretty amazing.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1116774833818198016

#21 Lost...but not leased on 04.12.19 at 6:04 pm

Herein lies the lesson..

Best way to rob a bank and avoid time in the crowbar hotel is to OWN one…

PS maybe be a major shareholder in SNC Lavalin(do they build banks?)

#22 Lost...but not leased on 04.12.19 at 6:08 pm

Re Gas prices

Here in the Southern US…we are seeing the average gas price is around $2.49 gal.US

…….diesel average about 40 cents per gallon more

#23 DON on 04.12.19 at 6:08 pm

#6 Boombust on 04.12.19 at 5:27 pm

“Slow melt?”, “No crash?”

Not here in Vancouver. It’s a full-b;own crash, alright.
******************

https://www.thestar.com/vancouver/2019/04/11/developer-admits-hes-desperate-as-multimillion-dollar-west-vancouver-home-prices-tumble.html

I get it that the stock market is ok but what about mainstreet. Big debt, financial pressure may be the catalyst. It may be better to declare bankruptcies and walk in some circumstances. The debt has never been bigger and cost of daily living is increasing.

But good news no recession in the near term. Make some money.

#24 Dolce Vita on 04.12.19 at 6:09 pm

Is this the same XIU ETF you are praising:

https://i.imgur.com/iUH35ql.jpg

The same one that today closed 7¢ above the price 9 months ago?

#25 The Wet One on 04.12.19 at 6:15 pm

Yes Jimmy.

Once conditions are removed, like they were today, there is a legally enforceable contractual obligation to complete the deal.

That’s as good as sold at law.

The question is how much of a hassle is it going to be to get the money or get title. No reason to think it won’t go smooth, but we’ll see.

But as to whether or not a legally enforceable contract of sale has been entered into (i.e. a sale) it’s done.

That said, I do agree about sucking various appendage too soon. Thus what I wrote.

I’ll leave the champagne and, uh, other festivities until after close.

Happy?

;-)

#26 Asterix1 on 04.12.19 at 6:15 pm

Reximus on 04.12.19 at 5:47 pm
the 416 house market won’t even melt, too many buyers for that at these low rates
———————————————————-

Average price of 416 detached down -20% since highs.
Medium price of 416 detached down -22% since highs.

Just the start. Still heading south for a while…

#27 Linda on 04.12.19 at 6:19 pm

2019 portfolio statements to date make for pleasant reading:) B&D portfolios rock!

#28 Blue angel on 04.12.19 at 6:19 pm

I tried to shorts the banks a few years ago, got burned … lack of sun screen I think. now I’m playing the dividend. I enter the stock a few days before the ex dividend date, benefiting from a fall in the markets and leave as soon as I am positive. very profitable!

#29 JonBoy on 04.12.19 at 6:28 pm

FYI, the rutting season is typically in the late summer (late August/September) for elk, fall (September/October) for moose and late fall/early winter for deer (November).

Rutting season at this time of year only occurs in the Southern Hemisphere so unless you’re writing this blog from Brazil, you should probably change your wording (or eliminate it all together). This is the time that all of those animals will be giving birth to young that were conceived in the actual rutting season.

We’ll rut when we feel like it. Bug off. – Garth

#30 Penny Henny on 04.12.19 at 6:33 pm

#101 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.12.19 at 2:23 pm
@#95 Penny Henny
“MOVE”

++++

Thank you for that well though out advice that must have taken you hours to think out.

It never occurred to me……..

I have every intention of moving after I retire.

But thats a few years away yet.

So I’ll just stay here and keep pulling in a six figure salary with excellent performance bonuses ( Bonus was half a years salary last year).
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

So in other words life is good right now? Right?
So stop the whining.

#31 AK on 04.12.19 at 6:41 pm

“Trump will hump everything he can to push markets higher”
=====================================
Another reason why there will not be a recession while President Trump is in office.
Which means, no recession over the next 6 years.

#32 Penny Henny on 04.12.19 at 6:44 pm

So here we are at the end of Q1, 2019. The noise has ended. The sun came back. The economy grew. The markets roared. A balanced portfolio – down maybe 3% after the big sell-off late last year that clobbered stocks – has swelled 7% or so in the last 90 days.
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Well I guess this confirms the theory that I am unbalanced. Down 4.2% last year and up about 10.6% this year.
Damn, I just jinxed us all.

#33 About the price of gas and traffic on 04.12.19 at 6:47 pm

down here in the LM … it sure is a lot easier to buy stuff online and have it delivered right to your door. Best prices too. This must be closing a lot of businesses down but who wants to drive anywhere anymore? And then have to pay dearly for parking too in a lot of places. Sure is nice to be retired.

#34 yvrguy on 04.12.19 at 6:51 pm

23 DON on 04.12.19 at 6:08 pm
#6 Boombust on 04.12.19 at 5:27 pm

“Slow melt?”, “No crash?”

Not here in Vancouver. It’s a full-b;own crash, alright.
******************

https://www.thestar.com/vancouver/2019/04/11/developer-admits-hes-desperate-as-multimillion-dollar-west-vancouver-home-prices-tumble.html

I get it that the stock market is ok but what about mainstreet. Big debt, financial pressure may be the catalyst. It may be better to declare bankruptcies and walk in some circumstances. The debt has never been bigger and cost of daily living is increasing.

But good news no recession in the near term. Make some money.

—-

LOL, from the article…

Soprovich said buyers from Mainland China were a big presence in the West Vancouver market in 2015 and 2016, but tighter capital flow restrictions brought in by the Chinese government, and the decision to introduce the foreign buyer tax and then increase it from 15 to 20 per cent, have basically “put the brakes on foreign investors.”

—->He said most of the buyers he’s seeing now intend to live in the home as their principal residence<—- and many of the potential sales involve older owners who want to sell their large home and move into a smaller house or condo in West Vancouver.

—-

wow you mean, homes being used as actual homes? that terrible NDP gov't!

#35 Millmech on 04.12.19 at 6:55 pm

#19 Renter in Surrey
I have multiple listings with price reductions in the valley, you need to get a better realtor.

#36 Andrew on 04.12.19 at 6:57 pm

https://www.kanaandkatana.com/valuation-depot-contents/2019/4/11/the-case-for-a-small-allocation-to-bitcoin

#37 IHCTD9 on 04.12.19 at 6:58 pm

Ms. IH and I visited the tax lady this aft. I’m happy to report we’re getting 15.3 K back this year. Cash that would have been wasted on **** had we not. We’re glad to have rescued it.

Interesting conversation after we got talking about the ccb. Tax lady has a client, mid 30’s single mom with 4 young kids, sole custody and no job. Total income was near 50k – ~32k from CCB and other federal and provincial benefits, and ~18k from ex hubby’s child support.

I couldn’t believe it, so I ran the scenario through the online CCB calculator – it spit out $31,387.84 annual benefit. I remind everyone that our labour participation rate is only around 60%, and almost 4 million of these are public sector. Tax lady says that most of her clients’ individual incomes are less than this mom …and they actually work.

This is going to hurt if it keeps up.

#38 akashic record on 04.12.19 at 6:58 pm

The promised real estate melt “as stated here” took 10-11 years to manifest. Give some time for the economy to freeze into recession.

Banks are a different story. They are above economy, politics and law. They are the untouchable billionaire class of its own, even AOC bows and kisses their feet with respect.

It’s a miracle that they have not gone private yet, wasting their dividends on the ungreateful steerage section.

#39 Carol in Sidney on 04.12.19 at 7:01 pm

This is a longer term chart of the TSX, not just the past year when it was down to 14991.

http://schrts.co/GpzKTuGJ

But I think Garth is correct…markets poised to move up esp. if global economies recover

#40 not 1st on 04.12.19 at 7:08 pm

So I am supposed to trust data going back to when there were cowboys shooting at each on town streets? Hell no. There is something lurking there especially for Canada.

Going to call it right now, technical recession by the fall, rate cut before the election. The IMF has us pegged at 1.5% growth. That is a technical recession. GDP under inflation.

#41 Evangeline on 04.12.19 at 7:09 pm

Garth: “Moreover, the banks have had a decade to prepare for this, and have greatly expanded their operations to non-residential real estate areas.”

Could the banks do well in the housing market even if there were a crash, because then much cheaper prices would increase volume of sales?

#42 50 YEARS OF MAPLE LEAF INCOMPETENCE! on 04.12.19 at 7:31 pm

Ah yes, spring is coming :)

Golf season for the Make Believes and their pathetic Stockholme Syndrome fanatics!

Ya gotta love the delusion of Toronturds, thinking that winning one game in Boston makes a difference. It doesn’t. They will be crushed in these playoffs, yet again.

Bwahaahaahaahaaaaaa!!!

Leafs haven’t beat the Bruins in 50 years in the playoffs.

(And the Bruins even play at the “TD Garden” – LOL, courtesy of money-hungry Toronturd financiers who abandoned their own city to get a stake in the USA, how very Toronto of them! But they dare not use the word “Toronto” when describing their US banks – they know it would kill their business! Ouch!)

#43 Evangeline on 04.12.19 at 7:39 pm

#10 Ronaldo … “The above was my prediction on Feb. 2/19 re: XIU. It is up 19.22% from Dec. 24th. I didn’t expect it to get there so quickly but what a payoff it has been. For the guy that bailed out and into cash bet he is sorry he did that.”

If the stock is on a momentum track, he should buy it back again.

One of the best lessons I’ve learned in investing is that if I see the share price consistently increasing soon after I’ve sold, is to buy it back again asap instead of watching it rise with regret.

#44 IHCTD9 on 04.12.19 at 7:43 pm

#37 50 YEARS OF MAPLE LEAF INCOMPETENCE! on 04.12.19 at 7:31 pm

Ah yes, spring is coming :)

Golf season for the Make Believes and their pathetic Stockholme Syndrome fanatics!

Ya gotta love the delusion of Toronturds, thinking that winning one game in Boston makes a difference. It doesn’t. They will be crushed in these playoffs, yet again
———

As a guy I used to work with liked to say…

“It must be spring, the Leafs are out.”

#45 Pfft on 04.12.19 at 7:57 pm

@#44 IHCTD9 on 04.12.19 at 7:43 pm
#37 50 YEARS OF MAPLE LEAF INCOMPETENCE! on 04.12.19 at 7:31 pm

Ah yes, spring is coming :)

Golf season for the Make Believes and their pathetic Stockholme Syndrome fanatics!

Ya gotta love the delusion of Toronturds, thinking that winning one game in Boston makes a difference. It doesn’t. They will be crushed in these playoffs, yet again
———

As a guy I used to work with liked to say…

“It must be spring, the Leafs are out.”
________________________

Cute, dumb and dumber chitchattin

#46 Figure it Out on 04.12.19 at 8:05 pm

“Canadian bank stocks have jumped close to 10% this year, at the same time silly investors have bet hundreds of millions against them through short-selling.”

Silly?
XIC.TO is up 15.1% YTD, XFN.TO is only up 12.8%, the banks even worse. A portfolio of 130% XIC and -30% XFN got you 15.8%.

NOBODY runs a 100% short portfolio. Even the big, famous shorts you see on TV are running funds which just become the short side of bigger players’ long/short portfolios. Your short doesn’t have to go down for you to win, just underperform the long positions it hedges.

Should small investors try this at home? Probably not. But they should understand the mechanics.

#47 expat on 04.12.19 at 8:07 pm

I took profits today after a great run.

These markets are going to get an intermediate cycle decline any day now. Everyone is far too complacent like October. The language here proves it.

I sold into the December decline. Didn’t make the top but was light above the bottom and bought in January…
One can never time markets but boy are people gonna get whacked here imho….

There are no profits if you don’t take them.

And no I didn’t lose future profits by selling. I took profits. I will seek a better entry point.

Nothing more.

Oil will break this economy if it doesn’t drop. It’s also due for a heavy intermediate cycle decline. Its very stretched.

If oil stays at these levels You will see recession.

History proves that. Arrogantly claiming no recession is a dangerous assertion. E very recession is brought on by the collapse of spending by the middle class.
Gas prices are killing them.

Europe is collapsing, other G7 are slowing rapidly.
Including here.

I’m with Eisman
The banks are gonna get crushed because they have forgotten credit cycles. You should watch his interview on BNN website. Pay cose attention to the different levels 1,2,3

Don’t underestimate him. He is a very very smart guy. Mostly he’s not cocky like most shorters.

Unlike most I could care less the outcome.
I just trade or arbitrage it

#48 Science Daily about Porsche-driving men on 04.12.19 at 8:08 pm

From https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/06/110616092647.htm

“New research … finds that men’s conspicuous spending is driven by the desire to have uncommitted romantic flings. … This research suggests that conspicuous products, such as Porsches, can serve the same function for some men that large and brilliant feathers serve for peacocks … not all men favored this strategy — just those men who were interested in short-term sexual relationships with women.”

#49 Jimmy on 04.12.19 at 8:12 pm

Re: #25

Well, you do call yourself The Wet One.

Wonder what happened to that Toronto guy Garth wrote about a few times who also had an absolute solid firm and hard Done Deal.

#50 jess on 04.12.19 at 8:12 pm

….stickers put on gas pumps/ fines ?
these things should be on bumper stickers at their expense!

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/gas-station-fine-carbon-tax-stickers-1.5096259

#51 paul on 04.12.19 at 8:40 pm

#40 not 1st on 04.12.19 at 7:08 pm

So I am supposed to trust data going back to when there were cowboys shooting at each on town streets? Hell no. There is something lurking there especially for Canada.
——————————————————————–Hell we have shootouts daily. What data are you referring to yesterday?? lol

#52 Ronaldo on 04.12.19 at 8:52 pm

#24 Dolce Vita on 04.12.19 at 6:09 pm
Is this the same XIU ETF you are praising:

https://i.imgur.com/iUH35ql.jpg

The same one that today closed 7¢ above the price 9 months ago.
——————————————————————
In other words, you missed a buying opportunity.

#53 ImGonnaBeSick on 04.12.19 at 9:11 pm

I was literally on hold with TD Easyline for 40 minutes this afternoon before I finally hung up. They made $10B last year.. spend some fricken money and hire some more phone tellers you tightwads…

#54 Robert Ash on 04.12.19 at 9:12 pm

Thanks for the reference to “Assume a Can Opener”. I took Science and Engineering at University in the Paleozoic era… I then completed a Commerce program… Including your basic Lipsey Styner and Sparks, intro Econ course, and then Micro and Macro..then Math Econ…
With the Science training first, it was hard to not question all the assumptions.. Have you noticed how completely wrong, a lot of these assumptions, are… I certainly have….This country would be much better managed, if we provided the Financial forecasting to Accountants… Economics, is a good career to pursue, it is an interesting field, and necessary. What is the problem is the forecasting… it is very difficult to do….. like timing the market…. forecasting is guess work… what I find a bit counterintuitive, is the Market is the Omnipresent mystery, and we continue to add complexity and uncertainty with these often wild and poorly thought out “Forecasts”. Imagine if the Accountants, could set policy… would a few more “Certains, and a little conservative musings be postive….for Canada. I think so…

#55 Cristian on 04.12.19 at 9:18 pm

“A balanced portfolio – down maybe 3% after the big sell-off late last year…”

Actually mine went down only 1.6%, mainly because of the gold holding of about 12.5% which went up quite a big in December.

#56 Juve101 on 04.12.19 at 9:26 pm

“We’ll rut when we feel like it. Bug off. – Garth”

Lol :)
You meant to say “Rut off” didn’t you.

#57 Rargary on 04.12.19 at 9:53 pm

#8 Dave on 04.12.19 at 5:33 pm

Real estate salee are in the complete dumps in Vancouver, prices ate dropping like crazy. By the end of 2019, it might get to affordable levels
_______________________________________________
Don’t we wish. That ship has sailed unfortunately

#58 Crazed and a little confused on 04.12.19 at 9:58 pm

hello people,

just sold my Manulife stock today . against the norm i sold october , bought back as it crept lower in december…still cont… to fall but held my course. Obviously you see the gain up till now up 17 % now i know garth and many others say you cant time the market …but ya gotta take some risks we are about 500 points from all time high for DOW jones

i also sold my weed etf in march . it is about 5.8 % higher than when i sold it. we are expected to correct in some way or fashion. all time high debt…freeze % rates , new high in retail oil prices wages and employment stagnant…stable but stagnant.
let see what happens to the political environment with T2 and trump.
exciting

#59 Rargary on 04.12.19 at 9:58 pm

50 YEARS OF MAPLE LEAF INCOMPETENCE! on 04.12.19 at 7:31 pm

Ah yes, spring is coming :)

Golf season for the Make Believes and their pathetic Stockholme Syndrome fanatics!

Ya gotta love the delusion of Toronturds, thinking that winning one game in Boston makes a difference. It doesn’t. They will be crushed in these playoffs, yet again.

Bwahaahaahaahaaaaaa!!!

Leafs haven’t beat the Bruins in 50 years in the playoffs.

_________________________
Nice hate on! Lol. You reek of bad karma… enjoy friend

#60 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.12.19 at 10:06 pm

@#30 Penniless Harridan
“So in other words life is good right now? Right?
So stop the whining.”
++++

Yes life is good.
And I fully expect to double my income next year because…… I’m not a socialist weenie waiting for a hand out.

But when the BC NDP govt employee slugs endlessly bend the taxpayer over to pay the highest gas prices in NORTH AMERICA.

https://604now.com/vancouver-gas-prices-north-america-record/

And then they bend taxpayers over to pay monopolistic, govt only, obscene car insurance rates….

https://globalnews.ca/news/4339457/b-c-drivers-paying-up-to-1k-more-per-year-for-insurance-than-other-canadians-industry/

Your “best” suggestion is to …… MOVE

“F” that.
I dont have a problem paying taxes.
And my 2018 tax return is proof of that.

What I do have a problem with is the endless increase in taxes to watch it squandered on crap.

You know.
Rainbow Crosswalks, Anti bullying legislation ( like Laws can “legislate” a Monkey/Lizard brain to stop people from being …..bullies….).
Carbon taxes to “stop” pollution…please, spare me.
Its just another cash grab for a morally and financially bankrupt govt…
Kinda like the Liberal excuses for SNC Lavalin.
Not that the Harper govt was much better.
But I digress.

Show me an elected govt that will do what it says AND balance a fricking budget year after year after year and I will show you a happy, over taxed paying public…..
Unfortunately, it aint gonna happen.

The idiots running BC cant see the fiscal implosion staring them in the face.
Real Estate here ( and ALL the jobs that go with it) is in meltdown and the IDIOTS in govt raise taxes on the most basic of items like gas?????

Yeah Penny.
The entire province should move…….

Let me ‘splain it to you in a language you can unnastan.

U…. R…. an EEE DEEE YOTTT.

#61 Westcdn on 04.12.19 at 10:15 pm

I have always believed there is a purpose in life. A niece’s husband died in an accident the other day. I am fond of her spirit and my small cold heart cried for her. I can’t change anything that is done except live with regret where I could have done better. Condolences from me are near empty but she can call on me anytime and I will deliver.

As for this Alberta election I am tortured. I do like Rachel over Kenney but I have to vote for the person that best meets my interests. My vote means little in this riding which I call Rhodesia. The people are good and I don’t have to worry about lowlife. I will try to keep Kenney honest from my lowly station. Life never prepared me to be a politician or a saint.

I planted a couple of little potatoes a week ago. I named them Trudy and Trudy jr. I have them under ground cover. There is something different about the weather this year. Someone wrote about jet streams and I think he was right. Anyway, I am trying to make hay while the sun shines.

#62 PGer on 04.12.19 at 10:17 pm

“Trump will hump everything he can to push markets higher”. Well, except for Stormy – too pricey.

Otherwise, great pic of the cat showing his total dominance over the poor pooch.

#63 espressobob on 04.12.19 at 10:18 pm

#55 Cristian

Successful retail investors learn over time owning commodities are a waste of time. It’s the miners and or producers that make profit from the underlying asset.

Not hard to understand. Some never get this.

#64 tccontrarian on 04.12.19 at 10:25 pm

Wow, a GF blog entry to print out and archive … and see how things fare later in the year. It appears that I can now add one more contrarian indicator to my list:

The Garth Turner Sentiment Index (GTSI).

As such:

1- A recession isn’t ‘officially’ here yet but if you’re waiting for governments or banks to be alerted, well, sorry to say that they’re known to ‘announce’ events well after they’re obvious to just about everyone.

2- The market isn’t actually laughing at anyone; it doesn’t care about us.

3 – Thanks to Garth, I think shorting the Banks is now back on the table. Not in a big way – not as much as I will be shorting the Russell 2000.
Any asset class that’s loved by the vast majority of participants, amateur and professional alike, is almost certainly going to give up the gains. Complacency is dangerous.
This kind of talk is not dissimilar to sentiment surrounding the RE market! Now, anyone who bought the last couple years must be getting nervous – unless they’re oblivious to what’s been going on.

The Market is made up by bulls and bears – they see the same data and arrive at different conclusions.
I’m bearish the banks – and I’m going to be deploying some capital to ‘test’ my theory. That’s the only way to get better at this game – or any other, for that matter.

TCC

#65 The Real Mark on 04.12.19 at 10:44 pm

Just because banks can continue to make money, doesn’t mean that their P/E multiples can’t relentlessly compress. Seriously, where’s the growth in Canadian banking going forward? Their US operations are certain to turn into disaster once again as the yield curve inverts. And falling Canadian RE prices are deadly in terms of the prospects of the banks being able to expand their lending going forward. With RE in physical overcapacity in Canada, there’s not even an argument to be made that falling BoC policy rates could revive the housing market.

Can the Canadian banks compress to P/E multiples of 6-8? Of course. Seriously, where’s the growth supposed to come from? If anything, the abundance of funds to lend out could potentially be chasing collateral of increasingly limited value, which is a recipe for realized spread compression. Along with, of course, landlord families dumping dozens of properties (each) onto the banks with significant losses.

Of course, in a Canadian downturn, the severity probably won’t be anywhere near as severe as in the United States. But I see no particular reason to like the banks at these levels. Something else has to take leadership on the TSX for the next cycle. The banks have had many decades “in the sun”.

#66 The Real Mark on 04.12.19 at 10:47 pm

“#53 ImGonnaBeSick on 04.12.19 at 9:11 pm
I was literally on hold with TD Easyline for 40 minutes this afternoon before I finally hung up. They made $10B last year.. spend some fricken money and hire some more phone tellers you tightwads…”

Bring more assets or business (commissions) to their particular institution and your priority will increase… Their top customers most certainly don’t wait “on the line” at all. They only made $10B because they know which customers are important and which are not…

Ridiculous comment. It’s a call centre op. – Garth

#67 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.12.19 at 10:56 pm

#15 IHCTD9 on 04.12.19 at 5:50 pm
#71 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.12.19 at 8:14 am
@#69 IHCTD9
“That’s just nuts, more than I’ve ever paid for gas anywhere.”

++++
Yep.
Carbon tax, Transit Levy, local taxes, etc….oh and every year the oil co’s announce that a refinery of one sort or another is “down for maintenance”.
I expect some sort of “emergency” at another refinery some time in the near future so they can bump the price to $1.75 -1.85.
A friend just bought a 3/4 ton diesel pickup to haul the trailer, dirt bikes and camper around.
That’ll be minimum $150 to fill for what 500kms/tank?

Dont get me started on my govt car insurance.
I renew next week. $1950/year with my 42% safe driving “discount”.
The ICBC fiscal “dumpster fire” that just keeps on sucking money into the vortex of over staffed, over paid slothful, lazy govt employees
——-

Good grief kids, stay away from BC. Is that public insurance then? We have private brokers in Ontario. The insurance on my truck is like 500.00/yr with 2 mil liability and collision, with 500.00 deductible.
———-
Sir.
500 bucks a year?
I call you a lier.
Unless you provide your insurance paper.

#68 js on 04.12.19 at 10:56 pm

Far from a party atmosphere in the Vancouver market! I really don’t see it coming back any time soon.

#69 Where's The Money Greed-Morneau? on 04.13.19 at 12:07 am

Re: #58 Two-thirds on 04.11.19 at 10:29 pm
Suggestions welcome!
++++++++++++
In my case I poured everything I had into my mtg, (in the 90s), and paid off place in 9 years. I then had a workplace injury which rendered me unable to work in my trade via a blacklisting WCB decision that could very well killed me, as it had done to fellow brothers in my trade (bastards).
The stress having to pay a mtg at that time would have devastated me, and I would have had to sell at a great disadvantage (early 2000s). I came close 3 times having to sell at a loss and a mtg would have compelled me to sell with the bank (Vancity) reaping the rewards.
I only survived by not having that mtg. payment when no money was coming in, WCB tends to do that to you, including ICBC.
7 years it took of them bleeding me dry before settlement on decision that wrecked my life!
Food for thought.

#70 SoggyShorts on 04.13.19 at 12:22 am

#37 IHCTD9 on 04.12.19 at 6:58 pm
Ms. IH and I visited the tax lady this aft. I’m happy to report we’re getting 15.3 K back this year.
**************************
Ouch. That’s a nasty opportunity cost.
15.3K loaned to the government interest-free? yuck.

BTW didn’t we have this talk last year?

#71 The Great Gordonski on 04.13.19 at 12:34 am

Proof that the Trudeau Liberal Party is corrupt and killing Canada on behalf of foreign Hate Groups.

https://business.financialpost.com/opinion/vivian-krause-rachel-notley-the-rockefellers-and-albertas-landlocked-oil

Canada losing billions in revenue so that foreign money can spend hundreds of millions propping up a petty dictator. Your elections are being stolen…..Wake up!

The proof is public information and still Canadians are too stupid to see what’s happening.

#72 West Coast Conspiracy Theorist on 04.13.19 at 12:48 am

So let me get this straight: “The market will melt, not crash, with softening sales and prices. A lot of families will slip underwater on their loans, but they won’t walk. People would rather eat drywall than surrender their keys.”

Sounds bullish to me. Retails and consumption will be on fire given the above.

Yep, definitely no pull back coming.

#73 Friday Humour - sadly real on 04.13.19 at 12:53 am

https://globalnews.ca/news/5160937/john-philip-stirling-drug-smuggling-arrest-bc-oregon/

“He said if he would have had to have a job in Canada he would have paid too much in taxes.”

#74 Smoking Man on 04.13.19 at 1:37 am

Let me get this right. T2 Bill Blair and many high ranking libtards are at war.

The tweets from today, White nationalist are a threat to Canada. There might be two or three in the entire country up north somewhere in the wilderness.

Most Canadians are made up of immigrants there kids and refugees.

So let’s break it down, if you have light colored skin pigmentation(White) and you love your country(Nationalist) you are dangerous.

The desperation of thieves and traitors trying to divide us so they can stay in power to steal every last dime we worked for.

The big miscalculation. Only children who have never paid taxes believe their rhetoric but they don’t vote.

Every adult with brown, black, yellow, green, white skin pigmentation see through their bull shit.

Go Leafs Go. Now that’s Canadian, we are all Canadians., October can’t come fast enough.

T2 broke the law yet again, demonizing people based on skin color.

What a POS

#75 Annick Dotal on 04.13.19 at 2:09 am

The Wet One on 04.12.19 at 4:53 pm

You have no idea! Infants go thru 2500 – 3000 diapers a year. Just sayin’.

#76 Nonplused on 04.13.19 at 3:36 am

I have to admit that the standard Greater Fool subject matter has become less interesting now that it is actually happening. I wonder if the Apocalypse will be the same way? When the nuclear bombs start flying will we all go “meh” and keep playing our video games until the power goes out and the mushroom cloud vaporizes us?

Meanwhile Scheer is killing it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MHZgjt84odQ

What you need to notice about this video, is how Trudeau keeps deflecting. Trudeau has made the SNC thing about climate change. Or somehow about it. He conflates things, which is a sign of low IQ. He is suggesting that Canadians, who emit less than 2% of global CO2, are more concerned about climate change than SNC. Well, they might be, but any smart person would be able to tell that these are 2 different topics and not at all related. Therefore he is trying, like an angry drunk person, to tie everything together like it is all the same thing like sometimes happens when you have a dream while hung-over.

Folks, any time you see someone conflate two independent subjects (or more), realize you are dealing with an idiot. Climate change has no more to do with SNC than a flat tire on your car has to do with gas prices. You have to separate them. Don’t let your right brain dream you into total stupidity.

#77 Elcheapo on 04.13.19 at 8:09 am

Regarding better service for bank customers with more assets: Come on Garth you know it’s true. If you got 100k in the bank there’s a certain number you can call. If you got 1M in the bank they give you a DIFFERENT number to call, and you’re certainly not on hold for 45 minutes!

You use a call centre for a $1 million portfolio? Yikes. – Garth

#78 IHCTD9 on 04.13.19 at 8:40 am

#67 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.12.19 at 10:56 pm

Sir.
500 bucks a year?
I call you a lier.
Unless you provide your insurance paper.

———

I do lie quite a bit, usually when I’m tired :)

It was a guess based on the last truck I owned which was $480.00 per year about 10 years ago, so I dug out our policy from last year just for you benefit – 650.00 per year.

Truck is 16 years old, I’ve never had an at fault accident ever, and haven’t had a speeding ticket since the early 90’s.

In fact, I pay about the same as farts does in BC for two vehicles combined and 3 drivers, one of whom is 16 years old.

Just because you’re getting hosed on insurance doesn’t make folks who aren’t a pack of liars.

#79 IHCTD9 on 04.13.19 at 8:53 am

#70 SoggyShorts on 04.13.19 at 12:22 am
#37 IHCTD9 on 04.12.19 at 6:58 pm
Ms. IH and I visited the tax lady this aft. I’m happy to report we’re getting 15.3 K back this year.
**************************
Ouch. That’s a nasty opportunity cost.
15.3K loaned to the government interest-free? yuck.

BTW didn’t we have this talk last year?

– ———-

Same thing this year as last year. We don’t over pay our taxes during the year, the big return (for us anyway) is the result of severely lowering our taxable income.

We never know where we will end up by tax time as far as total deductions go, so it is what it is. Investments are being fed either way, and every dollar I don’t pay in taxes makes me happy, so I’ll take it a year later with a smile :).

#80 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.13.19 at 9:05 am

@#73 Friday Humour

Unbelievable.

A drug smuggler for decades who has been caught with tonnes of drug shipments and released several times.
And he freely admits being an informant for the police while working for the Hell’s Angels….and he’s still alive?

#81 The Great Gordonski on 04.13.19 at 9:06 am

Long and strong through December, dividends kept coming in, I bought straight through with my divvies. Selling is a fools paradise. You only enrich the tax man while impoverishing yourself. Selling means no more divvies, and what do you use for free cash flow when you’re in cash, mugs game friend.

So, I ended up buying a whole raft of additional shares on sales that not only went up 20% or more, but I increased my monthly dividend income with which to buy more shares to provide more income. If it sounds like a virtuous circle, it is. And now this, another potential melt-up.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/12/global-markets-are-rallying-on-china-and-jamie-dimon.html

Be positive and prosper my friends.

#82 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.13.19 at 9:10 am

@#79 IHTDC9
“Sir.
500 bucks a year?
I call you a lier.”

+++++

Yes Ponzie probably meant you were lying down as opposed to being a liar.

I’m not sure how being horizontal would affect your car insurance rates but hey!
What ever works for ponzie on his planet…..to get a good deal…. is his business.

#83 not 1st on 04.13.19 at 9:20 am

Here is just one of the reasons places like Canada face a reckoning. Too many poor millennials.

https://qz.com/1592826/the-middle-class-is-shrinking-generation-by-generation/

#84 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.13.19 at 9:46 am

And just when Millennials mistakenly thought Boomers were going quietly into the night and they would walk in and take over…..

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-politics-centenarian/making-a-splash-centenarian-runs-for-office-in-german-town-idUSKCN1RP06Q

Prepare for the inevitable.
Boomers in control for another 40 years …
Moo hoo haaa haaaa haaaaaaaaaaaaa.

#85 Reed Marx on 04.13.19 at 10:02 am

Everyone knows that the bond market has told the stock market that the Fed will print stimulus for ever! The stock market is primed for another big mover over the next year or two. I’m pretty sure this will all end very badly, but enjoy the free ride for now. This is what capitalism has become. Not sure how much time it has left but Wall/Bay streeters don’t care what the 99.5 percent think.

#86 Lorne on 04.13.19 at 10:08 am

#60 crowdedelevatorfartz
“Real Estate here ( and ALL the jobs that go with it) is in meltdown and the IDIOTS in govt raise taxes on the most basic of items like gas?????”
…..
So, it is the 1 cent increase in the carbon tax that is the major problem, not the 20+ cents the corporations have raised their price??
Now that money laundering and foreign speculation have been curbed Real Estate prices are dropping….and MOST people are happy about that. Just hope those in the industry put away some money for the “rainy day” that has finally arrived….and did not follow Alberta’s lead when they had their boom days.

#87 Penny Henny on 04.13.19 at 10:09 am

#67 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.12.19 at 10:56 pm
#15 IHCTD9 on 04.12.19 at 5:50 pm

Good grief kids, stay away from BC. Is that public insurance then? We have private brokers in Ontario. The insurance on my truck is like 500.00/yr with 2 mil liability and collision, with 500.00 deductible.
———-
Sir.
500 bucks a year?
I call you a lier.
Unless you provide your insurance paper.
MMMMMMMMMMM

2017 Mustang Convertible, full coverage, $500 ded.
Insurance $580/yr

#88 Sold Out on 04.13.19 at 10:10 am

#73 Friday Humour
#80 CEF

It looks as though he was working as an informant with the blessings of the 81 clubbers. The police describe him as a hostile agent; perhaps certain shipments were allowed to be intercepted by police, while much bigger ones made it to destination during the distraction. Stirling had far more charges dropped than convictions. RCMP have all but given up on criminal convictions for organized criminals in favour of civil forfeiture.

#89 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.13.19 at 10:15 am

#78 IHCTD9 on 04.13.19 at 8:40 am
#67 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.12.19 at 10:56 pm

Sir.
500 bucks a year?
I call you a lier.
Unless you provide your insurance paper.

———

I do lie quite a bit, usually when I’m tired :)

It was a guess based on the last truck I owned which was $480.00 per year about 10 years ago, so I dug out our policy from last year just for you benefit – 650.00 per year.

Truck is 16 years old, I’ve never had an at fault accident ever, and haven’t had a speeding ticket since the early 90’s.

In fact, I pay about the same as farts does in BC for two vehicles combined and 3 drivers, one of whom is 16 years old.

Just because you’re getting hosed on insurance doesn’t make folks who aren’t a pack of liars.
————-
Anybody from Ontario, who can back this guy up?

#90 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.13.19 at 10:21 am

#82 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.13.19 at 9:10 am
@#79 IHTDC9
“Sir.
500 bucks a year?
I call you a lier.”

+++++

Yes Ponzie probably meant you were lying down as opposed to being a liar.

I’m not sure how being horizontal would affect your car insurance rates but hey!
What ever works for ponzie on his planet…..to get a good deal…. is his business.
—————-
Farts,
The high gas prizes gettin you all uptite?
Just triing to copi Smoking Gun.
BTW, Fits are on sale.

#91 Ronaldo on 04.13.19 at 10:22 am

#75 Annick Dotal on 04.13.19 at 2:09 am
The Wet One on 04.12.19 at 4:53 pm

You have no idea! Infants go thru 2500 – 3000 diapers a year. Just sayin’.
——————————————————————
Whatever happened to using cloth diapers?

#92 TalkingPie on 04.13.19 at 10:23 am

#67 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.12.19 at 10:56 pm
Sir.
500 bucks a year?
I call you a lier.
Unless you provide your insurance paper.
********************************************

I guess you can call me someone who lies down, too. My ’99 Miata costs about $500 as well. Full coverage, low deductible. My ’15 Mazda 3 is about $800 or so.

#93 Vampire Studies (post grad) on 04.13.19 at 10:25 am

76 nonplused – high gas prices means less driving. Less driving means less flats.

82 Fartz – more lying down means less driving. Less driving means less chance of accidents. Less accidents means lower insurance premiums.

This is fun!

#94 dharma bum on 04.13.19 at 10:44 am

#42 50 YEARS OF MAPLE LEAF INCOMPETENCE!

But they dare not use the word “Toronto” when describing their US banks – they know it would kill their business! Ouch!)
——————————————————————-
HA HA!

That brought back memories, and reminded me of this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0fu8T6eodpg

Ahhhhh…the good ol’ days!

#95 Smoking Man on 04.13.19 at 10:49 am

not 1st on 04.13.19 at 9:20 am
Here is just one of the reasons places like Canada face a reckoning. Too many poor millennials.

https://qz.com/1592826/the-middle-class-is-shrinking-generation-by-generation/
…..

Globalism 2.0. Agenda 2030.

I agree its boomers fault for letting these thieves get away with murder. We were too busy trying to accumulate things competing with our nabours to notice what the hell was going on.

Game on globalists. I’m going to steal your mind fk millenials and turn them against you.

Dr Smoking Man

#96 Yuus bin Haad on 04.13.19 at 10:59 am

Chrystia was telling me the other day that it’s quite possibly likely that perhaps maybe foreign actors might be meddling in our election process in some way … and for sure they’re Russian!

#97 Nosferatu on 04.13.19 at 11:00 am

Garth,

This is a dumbass noob question that you’ve probably answered before but one I cant get a convincing answer to from my other sources. The question is, what is the’fair value’ price of a condo – is there such a thing? As an example, lets say i build a 100 condo tower on an area that could fit 12 semi homes that would sell for about 1 mil each. That’s 12 mil divided by 100 which means each Condo should sell for 120K. I mean after all, its air i’m paying for anyways. I d not understand how homes on real land sell for 1.2 Mil while boxes in the air sell for barely 20% less.

Love the blog. I’d vote for you and no, this is not a suck up to get my question answered.

#98 NoName on 04.13.19 at 11:25 am

#75 Annick Dotal on 04.13.19 at 2:09 am
#2 The Wet One on 04.12.19 at 4:53 pm

Working is expensive, kids are even more expensive (us dollar figures), both deplorable ans comunist sources are in an agreement on this one.

https://www.foxnews.com/health/heres-how-much-it-costs-to-raise-a-child-in-the-us

https://money.cnn.com/2017/01/09/pf/cost-of-raising-a-child-2015/index.html

And here is kanadian spin of reports from above, all fine untinl i red this, now iam clening puke of my flor.
F U global.

That’s especially disheartening news for parents of teen boys, Ivanova says. In B.C., it is estimated that the monthly cost of feeding a boy between 14 and 18 years of age is $311, girls in the same group average $223.

https://globalnews.ca/news/3172459/how-much-does-it-cost-to-raise-a-kid-in-canada/

dis·heart·en
/disˈhärtn/
verb
gerund or present participle: disheartening
cause (someone) to lose determination or confidence.
“the farmer was disheartened by the damage to his crops”
synonyms: discourage, dispirit, demoralize, depress, dismay, daunt, deter, unman, unnerve, sap, shake, throw, crush, cast down, desolate, make dispirited, make dejected, make crestfallen, make downhearted, disappoint, sadden, weigh down, weigh heavily on, put a damper on, cow, subdue, undermine, enervate, weaken; More
antonyms: hearten, encourage, heartened

#99 IHCTD9 on 04.13.19 at 11:38 am

#82 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.13.19 at 9:10 am
@#79 IHTDC9
“Sir.
500 bucks a year?
I call you a lier.”

+++++

Yes Ponzie probably meant you were lying down as opposed to being a liar.

I’m not sure how being horizontal would affect your car insurance rates but hey!
What ever works for ponzie on his planet…..to get a good deal…. is his business.
———

I’ve never tried getting horizontal for better insurance rates.

Can guys do that?

#100 IHCTD9 on 04.13.19 at 11:45 am

#92 TalkingPie on 04.13.19 at 10:23 am
#67 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.12.19 at 10:56 pm
Sir.
500 bucks a year?
I call you a lier.
Unless you provide your insurance paper.
********************************************

I guess you can call me someone who lies down, too. My ’99 Miata costs about $500 as well. Full coverage, low deductible. My ’15 Mazda 3 is about $800 or so
——

Ha! We have a Mazda 3 as well, except 2012 – $812.00 per year. Ms. IH is still recovering from a string of speeding tickets too!

Ponzie is gonna be pissed!

How much are you paying Ponzie?

#101 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.13.19 at 11:49 am

This just in:

How do Ontario auto insurance rates
compare to other provinces?

Unfortunately, Ontario auto insurance premiums are the highest in Canada. Why? Many experts point to high fraud rates and higher than average traffic on Ontario roads.

#102 IHCTD9 on 04.13.19 at 11:51 am

#87 Penny Henny on 04.13.19 at 10:09 am

2017 Mustang Convertible, full coverage, $500 ded.
Insurance $580/yr
——

5.0? :)

Ponzie – look at this, everyone else is paying even less than I am!

#103 PastThePeak on 04.13.19 at 11:58 am

I think Garth has a twin that sometimes posts under his name…

Anyways, lots of hard predictions there. Will be interesting to see how they measure up in two years.

#104 Lost...but not leased on 04.13.19 at 11:58 am

#71…re: Notley and Rockefellers

Dodd Investigation in US several decades ago unwittingly uncovered an uncomfortable truth..that foundations role are NOT at all philanthropic…but in essence granted tax breaks while in essence are used to direct policy etc. in favour of the interests of their oligarch founders.

The article you linked to is same olde formula…red herring and deflection. The end game is clearly the oligarchs and their foundations fulfilling J.D. Rockefellers bromide that “Competition is a SIN !” and mounting a full attack on Alberta Oil international exports under the Trojan horse of environmentalism, etc.

The case is made that Notley is controlled opposition, given she did not take her best shot and challenge these Foundations in court….which should give Alberta voters pause for sober reflection.

#105 Phylis on 04.13.19 at 12:18 pm

#95 sm, thanks for your community service, i’m pullin 4 ya. Getterdone.

#106 MaxBerniersShorts on 04.13.19 at 12:27 pm

#71 The Great Gordonski
Yawn, Vivian Krause still peddling her pet conspiracy theory after all these years. Break out the tinfoil hats.

She obviously doesn’t get that in electoral politics, the enemy of your enemy is your friend.

#107 millmech on 04.13.19 at 12:32 pm

#60
Do not forget the .5% property tax increase to deal with the fentanyl crisis!

#108 peter on 04.13.19 at 12:48 pm

Today condo building with lots of units sold in 4 hours. I let go so many opportunities because the housing market will crash. I think the greatest fool are the one with just one property. GTA will survive anything.

#109 DON on 04.13.19 at 2:11 pm

#72 West Coast Conspiracy Theorist on 04.13.19 at 12:48 am

So let me get this straight: “The market will melt, not crash, with softening sales and prices. A lot of families will slip underwater on their loans, but they won’t walk. People would rather eat drywall than surrender their keys.”

Sounds bullish to me. Retails and consumption will be on fire given the above.

Yep, definitely no pull back coming.

**************
Waiting for the rabbit and the magic hat or the magic rabbit and the hat.

Something just doesn’t feel right. We are already experiencing lower consumption and retail contraction, share buy backs etc. With Bubbles we always seen them in hindsight. Switching ones expectations from Bubble highs to lows doesn’t happen overnight.

But then again it is nice have a rosy outlook on a Spring weekend. Something ain’t right!

Speaking of expectations….or re-calibrating your expectations.

https://www.citynews1130.com/2019/04/12/downsize-adjust-expectations-home/

“Realtor Keith Roy with RE/MAX says in this climate some of the discussions between realtors and their clients can be a bit of a reality check.

They’re difficult conversations, because in people’s minds they’ve built plans around a certain number and that number’s changed,” Roy explains. “This is your last chance to take a big equity gain in the Vancouver market, and it’s a difficult conversation. Sometimes it means a slightly adjusted retirement plan.”

Realtors need to sell and will help you recalibrate your expectations on the slide down.

So let the good times roll… and don’t worry about the hang over.

#110 DON on 04.13.19 at 2:27 pm

#86 Lorne on 04.13.19 at 10:08 am

#60 crowdedelevatorfartz
“Real Estate here ( and ALL the jobs that go with it) is in meltdown and the IDIOTS in govt raise taxes on the most basic of items like gas?????”
…..
So, it is the 1 cent increase in the carbon tax that is the major problem, not the 20+ cents the corporations have raised their price??
Now that money laundering and foreign speculation have been curbed Real Estate prices are dropping….and MOST people are happy about that. Just hope those in the industry put away some money for the “rainy day” that has finally arrived….and did not follow Alberta’s lead when they had their boom days.
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YUP!

I am positive Crowded is aware of that, but this week seem to be venting week on so many levels. My colleagues, colleagues of colleagues, friends, family etc have been venting. Sentiment is changing – people should be taking notice of what’s is happening on the ground in the bottom levels of the pyramid.

Remember Steve Eisman does he research and if he is way off base which he might just be, why all the bank CEO’s coming out to challenge when we know consumer spending is faltering and debt loads are huge.

Interesting to see how this plays out, more curious to see how my neighbours stay above water and together.

If you can’t distract people with world war, then consumption, then do you focus on the environment…hmmm.

#111 DON on 04.13.19 at 2:46 pm

#95 Smoking Man on 04.13.19 at 10:49 am

not 1st on 04.13.19 at 9:20 am
Here is just one of the reasons places like Canada face a reckoning. Too many poor millennials.

https://qz.com/1592826/the-middle-class-is-shrinking-generation-by-generation/
…..

Globalism 2.0. Agenda 2030.

I agree its boomers fault for letting these thieves get away with murder. We were too busy trying to accumulate things competing with our nabours to notice what the hell was going on.

Game on globalists. I’m going to steal your mind fk millenials and turn them against you.

Dr Smoking Man
******************

Distract a generation with World War
Distract a generation with Consumption and Riches
Distract a generation with the Climate

Hmmmm!

#112 conga on 04.13.19 at 10:30 pm

Enjoy your daily column.
I find it odd that you disparage the doomers and shorts, and also the real estate cartel numbers, but you believe the bank guys. Everybody has an angle.

#113 True North on 04.14.19 at 12:14 am

BANNED