The loser

Matt’s been a real estate agent for four years now. In one of those he sold no houses. Zero. Sadly, that was last year.

“Poverty is supposed to be the thing you try to get through early on,” he says, “you kinda expect it then. Not after four years. This is a crisis in my house.” You bet. He has yet to pay taxes owing on income from commission made in 2017 which were due on April 30th of last year. The typical realtor habit of financing a prior year’s tax obligation from current year’s income has been shattered. And the HST owing? “Don’t even ask,” he says. “I’m not returning phone calls from those guys..”

There are over 53,000 licensed realtors in Toronto. Another 14,000 in Vancouver. And 125,000 across the country. Since 2010 this has been one of the fastest-growing professions, relatively easy to enter and hugely appealing when the market booms. Of course, a real estate agent is 100% compensated by commission, and typically pays monthly overhead just to have a brand, a desk, access to MLS and a business card. So when the well runs dry, buyers retreat and FOMO becomes fear, all is lost.

So, fifty-three thousand agents in the GTA. Last month just over 7,000 sales happened. For the first quarter of 2019 the tally stood at 16,222 – down a little from a disastrous 2018. In fact last year as a whole saw a 16% tumble from 2017 – which was 18.3% lower than 2017. Yikes.

Here are some stats underlining Matt’s depression: last year in the country’s biggest (by far) housing market 37.7% of all realtors sold nothing. Zip. Another 47.6% did between one and six deals – subsistence income, since commission is typically split four ways – the listing agent and his broker, plus the buyer’s agent and hers. So, 85% of agents starved, or worse. The number of achievers – handling 36 or more deals in those 52 weeks, was 0.63%. Talk about income inequality!

(By way of comparison, Metro Chicago has 9.5 million people – 50% larger than Toronto – and supports just 13,500 realtors, or 74% fewer than in the GTA. We are insanely house-horny.)

Of course skilled, smart, motivated, aggressive, well-marketed people excel in every profession, but one in which 85% of players are failing, living below the poverty line, is extraordinary. Eyebrows were hoisted days ago when a high-profile Toronto broker retweeted these words: “I know for a fact, in our small brokerage, a few of our agents – and outside a lot more – they did not pay their taxes, their HST. They have huge problems with CRA because they don’t have income. Some are driving Uber because they can’t make ends meet.”

Well, here’s the point: Mr.Market is unhappy, and it appears things are about to get  worse (if possible) for Matt. An RBC survey confirms what this pathetic blog has warned about for ages – people want to buy assets that go up and recoil from those that fall. We’re herd animals. We desire what everyone else lusts after. And when others shun something, we do exactly the same – lacking the confidence to make an indie decision.

This recency bias almost always means we pay too much in a rising market, then buy nothing when prices fall. Just look at Vancouver for confirmation. Sales boomed and prices soared three years ago. Now detached houses have lost double-digits and sales are off 40%. People who said they’d pounce on anything that dropped in value have vanished. They’ll only return when values reflate and affordability falls.

The bank found 56% of Canadians now believe they should wait until next year to consider buying a property. The main reason (of course) is they anticipate prices will decline further, followed by apprehension about the economy. Thus, human nature is on full display. When prices were rising 30% year/year buyers thought they’d rise forever, and rushed to offer. Now that a detached home in the GTA costs 20% less than in the spring of 2017 buyers think drops are the norm. They wait.

This is made all the more dramatic by cheap interest rates and five-year mortgages going for less than 3%. Ottawa has now responded – as reported yesterday – with a shared-equity mortgage deal and permission for a couple to raid $70,000 from their RRSPs for a house deposit. But it looks like that news was greeted with a giant yawn. Everybody in Matt’s office, he says, thinks 2019 will be the year of the cardboard box under the bridge.

Safe to predict by Christmas there’ll no longer be 53,544 registered realtors in the Six. To everything there is a season.

158 comments ↓

#1 First glimpse of the T2 budget on 04.10.19 at 4:55 pm

Infinite darkness… keep digging that hole T2….

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-first-ever-photograph-of-a-black-hole/#comments

#2 Red_falcon on 04.10.19 at 4:59 pm

Those that understand compound interest Earns it. Those that don’t understand compound interest, pays for it.

And first!!!

#3 Victoria Real Estate Update on 04.10.19 at 5:02 pm

From CAPTAIN SARCASTIC’S collection of thought provoking quips:

* Since 2002 Montreal’s housing price gains have been small and safe compared to San Francisco’s extreme and dangerous housing price run-up (fifth chart).

This means it’s safe to say that Montreal definitely doesn’t have a housing bubble and that San Francisco definitely does.

And… in Canada pigs can fly but in the States they can’t.

* From 2000 to 2006 (years before emergency interest rates in 2009) house prices in the States skyrocketed while house prices in Canada didn’t (first chart).

This obviously means that the States had a housing bubble before emergency rates in 2009 and that Canada definitely didn’t.

And… in Africa things have changed – zebras are attacking and eating lions.

* From 2000 to 2007 household debt levels in the States skyrocketed while household debt levels in Canada didn’t. (first chart)

This means that, by 2007, the States had a massive and dangerous debt problem and that Canada obviously didn’t.

And… the only way to help a drug addict recover is to give them more and more hard drugs and make sure their supply never runs out.

– Captain Sarcastic :)

#4 yorkville renter on 04.10.19 at 5:05 pm

people love to kick RE agents in the teeth, but like any profession there are good ones and bad ones. I dont wish ill on anyone, even crappy RE agents

#5 paracho on 04.10.19 at 5:17 pm

As a 46 year old . I remember the early 1990s well . I remember the appreciation of Real estate in the GTA in the 1980squote well . My immigrant father with his grade 5 education and strong work ethic did quite well. He flipped a few properties and collected a modest holding of properties he still holds today as an 85 year old . But he always kept saying something did not feel right . Something smelt off . His words.
He started saying such things again about 3 years back . Making correlations with the early 90s. He only notices the difference of much lower interest rates now versus then . Many in our Woodbridge neighborhood lost their houses then .
I think something similar is around the corner but with a unique twist . I bet former real estate agents and brokers in the mid 1990s. I remember just how broken then seemed to me then . I was also surprised by how many people became real estate agents within the mast 10 years . Always wondered if they were that in demand and how they got by .

#6 expat on 04.10.19 at 5:26 pm

Carbon taxes kicked in April 1st
Climate Barbie just gave Loblaws 12 million to upgrade their freezers.

Guess where the money comes from. Yup your gas taxes that kicked in a few weeks ago.

Socialism is great if you are on the right side of policy….

#7 Linda on 04.10.19 at 5:27 pm

I feel sympathy for Matt et. al, but in the end they are simply facing the same reality as other out of work Canadians. The difference mainly being that Matt & company apparently have taxes owing on income earned in better times. Ouch.

#8 Mr. White on 04.10.19 at 5:30 pm

Making it ‘easy’ to own a home by taking personal risk off the table has expanded credit to absurd levels in one industry. This situation is an echo of what happened in the U.S. prior to 2008.

Stupid ideas like allowing people without good enough credit to own assets buttressed by debt always results in wild inflation and nasty crashes.

It is all nice and fine to say that Canada is different or that Canada will have a soft landing, but the reality on an individual basis is not a soft landing but a big splash when the debt cannot be serviced or when owners of properties give their keys to their banks and start all over again.

My rule since 1978 when I bought my first house in Edmonton was to never buy anything with less than 25% of my own money in. When people tell me that real estate never loses value, I respond with, you don’t know about Edmonton and Calgary do you?

It is all about cash flow. It is really nice to own a beautiful home, but if you can’t pay for it when the worse comes to pass, it really bites to have to sell it at a big discount.

Years ago I figured out that I would rather rent a nice home and have its owner subsidize the cash flow for the pleasure of having a great tenant, than to own something that a heartless banker can yank out from under you for fun.

So I sold my really nice house. Invested my profits well, and live in a great home with a beautiful view and pay comparatively chicken feed for the pleasure.

I house is a roof over your head and nothing more. They are not investments, and over the long term they have proven to give incidental returns.

By all means spend whatever you wish of your own money on a home, but never overleverage because the value of any asset is nothing more than the net-present value of its cash flow.

#9 HT on 04.10.19 at 5:32 pm

The smart ones knew it was a gravy train and were humble. The other 95% of them?… tough beans!

#10 Keith on 04.10.19 at 5:33 pm

Pareto principle. Otherwise known as the 80/20 rule. Most of the money goes to very few agents. Only the strong and savvy survive. Did the agents put aside twenty percent or more of their income for the inevitable downturn? Did the workers in the oil industry in Alberta prepare for lower prices? If your income comes from a cyclical industry its good to start when the cycle is in the trough. It proves or not that you will make it. Have security or a backup plan.

#11 Dazed and CONfused on 04.10.19 at 5:35 pm

Hard to feel empathy for a ‘profession’ that has aggressively pumped housing unaffordibilty for over a decade for their own effortless personal gain, at the expense of everyone else.

Karma, baby, Karma.

#12 Boxer got balls on 04.10.19 at 5:36 pm

The boxer in the pic has a cropped tail and balls. Looks menacing to most people but boxers are a very gentle breed. All bark, no bite. But do they ever bark!

That cat behind the sheer
has got nothing to fear
Male boxers are playful
Cat’s life now not dull!

#13 GARY on 04.10.19 at 5:42 pm

Good. Hopefully technology renders the real estate profession OBSOLETE. Paying 5% to have someone walk you through a house is theft.

#14 AGuyInVancouver on 04.10.19 at 5:49 pm

#4 yorkville renter on 04.10.19 at 5:05 pm
people love to kick RE agents in the teeth, but like any profession there are good ones and bad ones. I dont wish ill on anyone, even crappy RE agents
_ _ _
Nor do I, but that stat about the huge number of realtors in Toronto vs Chicago should open some eyes. What does it say about Canada’s job opportunities when so many turn to a profession like real estate, that requires so little training?

#15 MF on 04.10.19 at 5:50 pm

Ummm how about persuading the greedy sellers to sell for less?

Boom. Simple solution.

Watch his commissions and income go way up with enough price reductions.

Realtors created their own mess when they lied to everyone and told them houses rise forever.

MF

#16 Re-Cowtown on 04.10.19 at 5:54 pm

There was an article on Global news last night. It quoted RBC in stating that 40% of home owners are house poor. Ouch! Hell of a way to go through life.

#17 Penny Henny on 04.10.19 at 5:57 pm

The number of achievers – handling 36 or more deals in those 52 weeks, was 0.63%. Talk about income inequality!-GT
//////////

Food for thought Garth.
Of that .63% they also included ‘Real Estate Teams’ where there might be 4-6 agents sharing the rewards of those 36 or more deals

#18 Sold Out on 04.10.19 at 5:59 pm

Not only are realtors flailing for income in a falling market, but they are notorious for loading up on condos, presales, and flip shacks. Wait until rents start falling; many realtors will be lucky if they can hang on to the second-hand Kia. I take no real pleasure in anyone’s misfortune, but shouldn’t they, of all people, have seen this coming?

#19 yorkville renter on 04.10.19 at 6:00 pm

#7 – selling for the going rate is not being greedy… it is what it is. sellers can decide what they’re going to accept

#20 Cottingham a bargain on 04.10.19 at 6:00 pm

Up next tomorrow in the starvation watch, the plethora of mortgage brokers in the GTA

#21 PastThePeak on 04.10.19 at 6:03 pm

#2 Red_falcon on 04.10.19 at 4:59 pm
Those that understand compound interest Earns it. Those that don’t understand compound interest, pays for it.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Well said! (and compound interest being a proxy a for a dividend growth equity portfolio)

#22 yvr_lurker on 04.10.19 at 6:17 pm

I don’t have much sympathy for realtors. The entry skills and training to get into the profession is negligible compared to most other fields, and there has been an anticipation of easy money brought on by years of rapid appreciation and speculation. Now it comes crashing down; Have much more empathy for people working in the oil field in small towns or fishermen in Atlantic Canada who have had families working in this direction often for several generations.

#23 TheDood on 04.10.19 at 6:25 pm

#19 yorkville renter on 04.10.19 at 6:00 pm
#7 – selling for the going rate is not being greedy… it is what it is. sellers can decide what they’re going to accept
_________________________________
Yup. And Buyers will decide what they’ll offer.

#24 Bob Dog on 04.10.19 at 6:28 pm

I can’t think of a group of people I despise more than Realtors™. Bankers of course are far more evil but I don’t really consider them people.

Tesla in the process of closing its stores and going 100% online sales. This needs to happen in the housing market. Who wants to bootstrap a tech startup to make it happen? Oh right… Canada has almost no tech talent beyond fools with an MBA who like to walk around parroting fancy words they read on the net.

#25 conan on 04.10.19 at 6:28 pm

Ottawa market still has a pulse. Sell there.

#26 Ace Goodheart on 04.10.19 at 6:30 pm

Bit of a blood bath north of HWY 401 right now.

Back when things started taking off up there I knew a few people in the rental industry, just small time folks running a few rooming houses in North York’s famous rotten boroughs. The houses were 1960’s masterpieces, flat, boring, single storey jobs with worn out old hardwood strip flooring, kitchens the size of small closets and single bathrooms that you could just barely fit two people into.

These houses were situated on massive, mostly empty lots covered in weeds and unkept gardens.

All of a sudden, these $150,000 properties, worthless dumps inhabited by students and drifters renting them as single rooms each, paying a couple of hundred a month to live in squalor, became $4,000,000 properties that were being severed into two or three lots and having massive McMansions built on each.

Many multi millionaires were minted during the crazy blast off to the top of the price scale. I know a number of people who no longer work and who live and travel comfortably off of the money they made from this situation.

However, now things have gone backwards. Those who got in at the end, paying millions for small crappy lots and building massive houses on them, cannot sell the houses.

It’s getting really bad up there…..

#27 Damifino on 04.10.19 at 6:34 pm

The typical realtor habit of financing a prior year’s tax obligation from current year’s income has been shattered.
———————————-

I’ve never understood that type of thinking. Whenever a non-payroll lump of money has come my way I’ve always expected that, at the most, two-thirds of it is actually mine. Possibly less. The remainder belongs to Revenue Canada. It really is that simple.

That which is Caesar’s must be rendered unto Caesar. And yet, people are still inclined to gamble with their overlord’s cash. Would you treat the mob that way? Of course not. You’d end up ‘sleeping with fishes’.

Best to immediately render a healthy portion of newly acquired sums to the CRA. They have a handy account for just that purpose. Use it.

#28 Last realtor I used on 04.10.19 at 6:35 pm

just sent me a “newsletter” that states he is now willing to refer past clients to reputable re modelers. I guess he is taking a cut out of this reference somehow. Kind of telling. But I have seen a few sold signs lately out here in a nice burb of the LM. Glad I’m not needing to sell though.

#29 Lost...but not leased on 04.10.19 at 6:36 pm

Re Realtors…

Like any profession..only an idiot would dive in without doing the homework , reviewing patterns and deducing history….What’s that saying about being a Realtor.. ” One can not make living (as a Realtor)..but one can make a killing …aka Boom -Bust cycle.

Majority of long term realtors are fair and honest…the shysters get weeded out..via another old bromide “Bad News travels twice as fats as good news”.

Also: People that get sucked in by an alleged shyster should look in the mirror and wonder how much of the blame is their fault…one is making one of THE biggest investments in one’s life…at least do something resembling homework before you sign away…

Any Newbie Buyer or Newbie Realtor wannabees should read the tea leaves..RE is due for a MAJOR correction..

#30 Mike on 04.10.19 at 6:37 pm

We want higher home equities.

We want drug money laundering back now.

We want Christy Clark back now!!!

#31 Dave on 04.10.19 at 6:38 pm

Real Estate agents are like AM radio – there is no need for them but still they are around. Internet along with a notary is all you need. Why on earth do we pay unreal sums of money to someone who doesn’t need to be in the middle.
At the peak these two bit sales guys were making doctor level annual salaries. Arrogant and useless and pretend they are essential to the business world.

#32 50 YEARS OF MAPLE LEAF INCOMPETENCE! on 04.10.19 at 6:39 pm

#1 First Glimpse – Photo of Black Hole

Toronturds don’t need to look at a picture of a Black Hole.

They’re living in one – the biggest in Canada!

And now GTAholes are taking up arms against each other, trying to separate, LOL!

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/mississauga-mayor-bonnie-crombie-separation-dissolution-peel-region-1.5090334

Brampton, Mississauga, Peel region – all a deplorable wasteland. You have more in common than you think.

And get ready for the Make Believes tomorrow – Bruins about to crush their hopes once again :)

(Maybe all those sad realtors can find jobs in grief counseling after another pathetic season finishes?)

#33 BlogDog123 on 04.10.19 at 6:42 pm

Real Estate Agents:
A career fraught with temptations to behave against the interest of their clients. Two examples:

Selling agent: To get commission, the property must sell. No sell, no commission. Thus selling to any bidder is essential. In a sinking market, convincing your client to take any offer lets you collect the fee. Not necessarily the best price for my client because waiting longer means longer time without the transaction fee. In a frothy market, selling agent and selling client are happy as long as “highest price achieved quickly”.

Buying agent: I am competing with other buying agents to “win” that property. I must convince my buying client to bid highest so “I win” my share of commission. Against the best interest of my client, unless they’re really desperate for that house.

Above scenarios are illustrations only, but you can see how the agent you hire may be motivated to “make the transaction happen” rather than get you, the client, a sale price that meets the client’s target.

#34 young & foolish on 04.10.19 at 6:42 pm

Hmmmmm ….. I have a question:

What will rise faster and more reliably over the next 10-15 years …. Toronto RE, or a 60/40 portfolio?

It’s not a contest. – Garth

#35 Ravijeet Dhindsa on 04.10.19 at 6:45 pm

I personally know of 2 realtors that have given up on property market late last year and start driving trucks, in Brampton. Sadly trucking is slowing a little since last 3 weeks. Even trucks hauling garbage to states are slow. I have been told that factories and commercial places are producing less garbage due to slow down all over.
Another family friend closed the furniture store – very few sales- bills piling up.
Still no places to rent here in Brampton. 2 bedroom basement going for 1400-1600.

#36 pay your taxes on 04.10.19 at 6:46 pm

Since 2010 this has been one of the fastest-growing professions”

It isn’t a “profession”, it’s an “occupation”.

What will these people do once the EI runs out (oh I forgot, they can’t collect it) and their creditors have stripped them bare? Most realtors can’t hold down full time, 9 to 5 work so I wonder what will become of them. Perhaps they can become Tony Robin-ites and spread the gospel to the legions of their unemployed brethren. My money is on them becoming financial consultants and mutual fund salesmen. Are you hiring?

#37 Eco Capitalist on 04.10.19 at 6:49 pm

Being in IT, reminds me of Y2K. Everyone and their brother claimed to be an IT professional in the run up. In 2001 and 2002? A necessary culling of the herd.

#38 Reality is stark on 04.10.19 at 6:51 pm

The real estate fairy has one final act to play out. It is time to jack up property taxes to extract whatever gains were made on real estate so this whole government scam can come full circle.
Create a housing bubble and then tax back all the profits. When you kill industry with outrageous electricity prices and social policy which rewards workers for gender rather than merit you need to suck money from somewhere.
Housing to the rescue. The government plan works like a dream. It is only when they have extracted all the housing money that the people realize they were hosed.
No new automobile plants, a populace educated to polarize genders rather than a STEM focus, and additional taxation which robs potential entrepreneurs of seed capital is our new way forward.
At the end of all the shenanigans the private sector workers (the majority) become poorer.
It should only take the government 10 years to double your current property tax bill.
Pay up. Your children will still end up with a lousy future. Poor government policy guarantees it.

#39 Chelsea on 04.10.19 at 6:59 pm

From our past experience dealing with realtors has left us feeling we cannot trust them… their rudeness, smugness and totally impersonal. The RE market should be regulated by the government (an honest one that is), than being private. The RE regulates just everything, especially the media and news that we all view and some of us believe what they say. It is pretty scary, and sad that their is so much corruption under one umbrella (RE).

#40 TurnerNation on 04.10.19 at 7:00 pm

Bigger issues. A glimpse of life in de-industrialized post national state controlled by our new gods, the Techno elite. In Amazon, Tesla and google we trust. They are building Toronto’s “Smart” city as we speak.

– Zombie addicts destroying our hard working communities. The cops will not protect you.
The Left will squeal.

https://www.citynews1130.com/2019/04/10/maple-ridge-mayor-homeless/

– As they did to the Least Coast’s fishing industry in the 80s, 90s, AB is toast. BC logging next?

Experts say no government can bring back Alberta bitumen boom
https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5091759

#41 Victoria on 04.10.19 at 7:01 pm

I have been told by RE agents here in Victoria that property will never go down here in Victoria … because its Victoria …..

#42 Joe on 04.10.19 at 7:04 pm

“since commission is typically split four ways – the listing agent and his broker, plus the buyer’s agent and hers. ”

so a house that sells for $400k and what 6% goes to real estate commission so the commission split 4 ways is approx $24k?…..$6k each? is that correct?

$400,000 x .06 = $24,000

That is the common pattern. Splits will vary between agents and brokers, but the pie is carved up. – Garth

#43 AK on 04.10.19 at 7:09 pm

Where is Freedom First ?

#44 Joe on 04.10.19 at 7:13 pm

Does anyone know if you need a real estate agent or is it a lawyer if you buy the house your father owned once deceased . So the house would be part of the estate.

Lawyer. – Garth

#45 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.10.19 at 7:16 pm

I have zero empathy for commission based sales hucksters that thrived in a monopolistic sales information environment for decades.

They have earned every bounced cheque and hounding creditor of the looming financial real estate meltdown.

They, of all people, should have seen it coming… unless they began to believe their own bs.

Icarus and his wings….

#46 Howard on 04.10.19 at 7:19 pm

In Question Period today, Trudeau tried to deflect Scheer’s questions about Trudeau’s threatened libel suit by accusing Scheer of being soft of white supremacism. Just beyond despicable. My contempt for this Prime Mibuster becomes more visceral with every passing week. October cannot come soon enough.

#47 tccontrarian on 04.10.19 at 7:23 pm

“…– people want to buy assets that go up and recoil from those that fall. We’re herd animals. We desire what everyone else lusts after. And when others shun something, we do exactly the same – lacking the confidence to make an indie decision.” – GT
/////////////////////

So, you’re implying that (successful) investors act…

…CONTRARIAN!

I knew that someday I’d ‘see the light’.

– TCC

ps Happy Housing Crash Realtors!

#48 Smartalox on 04.10.19 at 7:23 pm

There are a lot of people who deal Real Estate as a side hustle. My neighbour in Vancouver is a real estate agent, but has a lucrative ‘day job’ in tech support for a branch of local government.

Another is a teacher, who shows houses on weekends, and in the summer. Knows all about the schools in the districts, too.

Yet another is a firefighter. He schedules showings on his off days. Oh no wait, the firefighter is a home inspector, not a Realtor.

My point is that these people all have secure high 5-figure jobs with pensions and ample benefits. Yet they all were licensed real estate agents, and somehow found the bandwidth to sell a few properties a year.

Maybe they didn’t earn enough to quit their day jobs, but they got to take vacations, and buy things for their homes that they otherwise could not have been able to afford. Should they have put that extra income into savings and investments, instead of travel and home improvements? Yes, probably. But whatever, they’ve still got their day jobs, and YOLO!

My point is that now that the market’s retreating, these people won’t be out on the street. They’re just going to go back to their day jobs, and drinking wine in their spare time instead of showing houses.

#49 tccontrarian on 04.10.19 at 7:24 pm

oops!

I knew that someday YOU’d ‘see the light’. LOL

#50 Adrian on 04.10.19 at 7:24 pm

Winner-take-all, or star markets are notorious for providing disproportionate returns to top performers, despite modest improvements in performance relative to their peers. These markets create individually rational incentives that result in an overcrowding of participants and poor compensation for the majority but astronomical returns for a tiny minority, plus a collectively inefficient overall allocation of resources. I didn’t realize that realtors qualified, but thank you for demonstrating one of the many ways markets can fail us, Garth.

See “The Winner-Take-All Society”:
https://www.amazon.ca/Winner-Take-All-Society-Much-More-Than/dp/0140259953
And also, “Linked: The New Science Of Networks,” by Albert-laszlo Barabasi & Jennifer Frangos
Or Malcolm Gladwell’s article in the New Yorker:
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2010/10/11/talent-grab

From that last link:
“But, if one side so thoroughly dominates another in the marketplace, is it really market pricing anymore? A negotiation in which a man can get paid twenty-two million dollars for hitting a baseball is not really a negotiation. It is a capitulation, and the lingering question left by Miller’s revolution is whether the scales ended up being tilted too far in the direction of Talent—whether what Talent did with its newfound power was simply create a new authority ranking, this time with itself at the top. A few years ago, a group of economists looked at more than a hundred Fortune 500 firms, trying to figure out what predicted how much money the C.E.O. made. Compensation, it turned out, was only weakly related to the size and profitability of the company. What really mattered was how much money the members of the compensation committee of the board of directors made in their jobs. Pay is not determined vertically, in other words, according to the characteristics of the organization an executive works for; it is determined horizontally, according to the characteristics of the executive’s peers. They decide, among themselves, what the right amount is. This is not a market.”

#51 the ryguy - In cabo on 04.10.19 at 7:27 pm

While I was in university I bartended nights at The Keg in Kelowna. Honestly probably 60% of the people I worked with ended up being realtors in the Okanagan. Gorgeous place to live, cant imagine a lot of work now..wonder what they will end up doing?

#52 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.10.19 at 7:31 pm

@Ponzi Pilates

“#116 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.09.19 at 11:18 pm

Penny Henny,
First, what a stupid handle.
/////

Stupid handle? On the contrary, it is perfectly fitting for this blog.
Why you ask…..

******

Well.
Now that Penny Henny has explained how they came about their name.
I felt it was my duty to explain how I came about mine!

I was at work and had an especially spicy burrito for lunch and when the elevator door opened……
That damn elevator was packed with people!
So, not one to miss an opportunity, ….in I jumped….

The rest, as they say, is history.

#53 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.10.19 at 7:34 pm

@#43 AK
“Where is Freedom First ?”

++++

In love.
AKA
Incarcerated.

#54 Crime Minister Trudeau on 04.10.19 at 7:36 pm

Does Brad Lamb still drive a Rolls Royce?

#55 Joe on 04.10.19 at 7:41 pm

Thanks for the feedback Garth, appreciate it!

#56 tccontrarian on 04.10.19 at 7:53 pm

45 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.10.19 at 7:16 pm

I have zero empathy for commission based sales hucksters that thrived in a monopolistic sales information environment for decades.
They have earned every bounced cheque and hounding creditor of the looming financial real estate meltdown.
They, of all people, should have seen it coming… unless they began to believe their own bs.

Icarus and his wings….
*******************************

You have an unique way with words! Funny and impactful because you tend to speak the truth!

One of the reasons I scroll thru the comments section.
Thanks!

TCC

#57 Pfft on 04.10.19 at 8:06 pm

@#15 MF on 04.10.19 at 5:50 pm

Realtors created their own mess when they lied to everyone and told them houses rise forever.

MF
______________________________

you’d have to be equally f’n stupid to believe those lies.
No sympathy for realtors or the fomos’

#58 Sam on 04.10.19 at 8:07 pm

Modest home down the street just listing for $1,070,000 (northwest mississauga )

GTA is toast, debt slaves for life

#59 Dolce Vita on 04.10.19 at 8:07 pm

A sad story today.

Probably just the beginning of what is to come and not its end.

These are people like everyone else. Pity them.

————————-

#46 Howard

It’s gotten so bad for me that I avoid watching social media video with the PM speaking. His deception is too hard to take.

What a disappointment he turned to be in so many ways. You are correct about October.

#60 Anon on 04.10.19 at 8:09 pm

The economy has tanked since last November but the work stuff is now feeling the pinch. How do I know? Some of the hookers, bartenders, barbers and pretty much everyone I know in the service industry are saying things have slowed down to a halt. People are panicking about their jobs and temples, ie, houses.

#61 Vampire Studies (post grad) on 04.10.19 at 8:10 pm

193 Remembrancer – just for you buddy!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1r3y-SRsNPI

#62 tccontrarian on 04.10.19 at 8:12 pm

On acting ‘contrarian’… a sample.

My Energy holdings (CAD only and other than ETFs):

1. Arc Resources (ARX): -5.32%
2. Crescent Point (CPG): +28.84%
3. Ensign Energy services (ESI): +19.58%
4. Paramount Resources (POU): +13.77%
5. Torc Oil & Gas (TOG): +11.47%
6. Baytex Energy (BTE): +5.15%

Each is 2-3.5% weighting in CAD account.

Now, these were all RED until very recently (while buying low, lower…). But that’s how one gets the best prices.
I’m done buying for now but I will add on sharp corrections (ie. on higher lows).

My guess is that these will offer up >100% gains over the next 6-18 months. I mean, if you look at the CPG on a 10-year chart (weekly), you’ll see that it isn’t unreasonable to expect $20/share. From current levels, that’s a +400% gain!! Even if I’m ‘off’ by $10, it’s still a 100% gain from here.

Who needs RE to get rich?

TCC

Who needs to brag online? – Garth

#63 Robert Ash on 04.10.19 at 8:15 pm

The Risk tolerance threshold, has turned, and that exessive optimism, has a price. It is interesting to me, that the GFCrisis, was brought on for the most part by US Policy makers, feeling everyone should have a home in the USA, then pressuring the Banks to have at her…
Now our Politicians, are taking our Money for their, salaries, to promote the market with low interest rates, and other initiatives, to promote more financial instability. This type of foolhardy Policy making, is coming from Leaders, with little or no formal or hands on business experience. And it sure is showing. Once upon a time, these folks were somewhat muted, and a lot of noise only, now we have to be very careful to select new Politicians, with the Resumes, to support making financial and economic decisions, that are supportive, of our Country. Not Carbon taxes, and self flaggulation. It is very sad to me to see a lot of problems, resulting from miscalculations. There are a lot lately, and it is showing in our performance. Now Finance folks, figure our Loonie, is not even responding to Increases in the price of Oil. We have self inflicted more harm, on an Industry already facing Head Winds…Our BOC dosn’t even think we should have an overnight interest rate similar to the US, yet we look to the USA Bond Market… So Policy makers, are interfering again, with Currency Manipulation. Sadly to the downside.

#64 Mean Gene on 04.10.19 at 8:19 pm

The world needs more KIA salespeople.

#65 What will they do? on 04.10.19 at 8:28 pm

…realtors in Kelowna will follow the money and continue being crime syndicates to the dirty money that lines their pockets…developers even more so.

55% of buyers in the Okanagan are from Vancouver. Translation: the dirty money (the only game left in town) is coming primarily through the ports via way of Vancouver.

The good news is we just found out no police are on this file. They have more important things to be doing like issuing parking tickets and catching speeders.

The share of the pie will shrink. Just like bouncing at a bar, it will be a brawl for a piece of the pie. So, in my opinion ex bouncers turned realtors have been prepped for what is happening.

#66 Pfft on 04.10.19 at 8:29 pm

@#56 tccontrarian on 04.10.19 at 7:53 pm
45 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.10.19 at 7:16 pm

I have zero empathy for commission based sales hucksters that thrived in a monopolistic sales information environment for decades.
They have earned every bounced cheque and hounding creditor of the looming financial real estate meltdown.
They, of all people, should have seen it coming… unless they began to believe their own bs.

Icarus and his wings….
*******************************

You have an unique way with words! Funny and impactful because you tend to speak the truth!

One of the reasons I scroll thru the comments section.
Thanks!

TCC
___________________

LOLOLOL

#67 Ronaldo on 04.10.19 at 8:30 pm

#63 Robert Ash on 04.10.19 at 8:15 pm
The Risk tolerance threshold, has turned, and that exessive optimism, has a price. It is interesting to me, that the GFCrisis, was brought on for the most part by US Policy makers, feeling everyone should have a home in the USA, then pressuring the Banks to have at her…
—————————————————————-
Yep. And this was the start of it all.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QYvtvcBKgIQ

#68 Banana Republic on 04.10.19 at 8:31 pm

30-40 families run the Canada along with 2 dozen or so Corrupt Lawyers. It becomes rinse and repeat with alot of these Bad Actors. Its not an accident or coincidence and they think they can get away with Anything because they have for generations

#69 Dolce Vita on 04.10.19 at 8:36 pm

Who needs to brag online? – Garth

Good one and well said.

—————————

As on Social Media and in some of the Comments today, you begin to read early warning signs that the economy is not just slowing down, it may be faltering.

It seems Mr. Consumer has put the kaibosh on spending.

Today, the IMF revised GDP growth down for Canada from 2% to 1.5%. There is anxiety about the economy.

Like other Recessions, they come as the thief in the night.

No manner of past charts can reliably predict what is to come. I believe it will be bad, very bad. Hopefully not.

For today we read but 1 example of many that will be untold of how livelihoods and dreams are shattered so completely in a severe economic downturn.

#70 its coming... on 04.10.19 at 8:43 pm

Canada’s bank CEOs ‘extremely ill-prepared’ for credit cycle: The Big Short’s Eisman

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/canada-s-bank-ceos-extremely-ill-prepared-for-credit-cycle-the-big-short-s-eisman-1.1241950

#71 tccontrarian on 04.10.19 at 8:45 pm

Who needs to brag online? – Garth

/////////////

Come on, Garth. You outlined the dangers of following the herd with respect to the RE situation, and I included a ‘real’ example of how I followed an (implied) contrarian approach to buying equities in the Canadian Energy sector. No use just talking hypotheticals without practical examples to illustrate the point (that you AND I are making).

Now, if I wanted to brag, I’d be listing the cannabis-related numbers! I won’t do this cause that’s not realistic for most, non-accredited, poorly connected individuals.
However, nearly everyone knows of the companies I listed and I’m sure many considered buying at least a couple of them.

If they didn’t, ‘why not?’, they should be asking themselves.

My guess? Because most ‘pros’ on BNN said ‘no, not yet’.

TCC

ps. In 12-18 months, if indeed they do as well as I stated above, I may brag…just a little (if you let me).

#72 JacqueShellacque on 04.10.19 at 8:50 pm

The missus of a good friend of mine became a ‘realtor’ a few years ago, working Oakville through to Hamilton. Over lunch a few months ago, he all but conceded that she’s made no money and that in fact he’d had to cover a 10K tax bill for her one year.

#73 georgist on 04.10.19 at 9:00 pm

There is an irony in this.

Here are two facts.

1. realtor is a low-skilled job that should pay like other unskilled jobs.

2. unskilled jobs should not leave people impoverished, the are working, that should entitle them to a respectful life.

Now the ironic part: realtors, along with bankers and landlords, make housing more expensive than it should be, forcing many, many people below the poverty line.

#74 NoName on 04.10.19 at 9:01 pm

#10 Keith on 04.10.19 at 5:33 pm
Pareto principle. Otherwise known as the 80/20 rule. Most of the money goes to very few agents. Only the strong and savvy survive. Did the agents put aside twenty percent or more of their income for the inevitable downturn? Did the workers in the oil industry in Alberta prepare for lower prices? If your income comes from a cyclical industry its good to start when the cycle is in the trough. It proves or not that you will make it. Have security or a backup plan.

That thing in a bold you got it wrong. Here it is correct version of it.

“It is not the most intellectual of the species that survives; it is not the strongest that survives; but the species that survives is the one that is able best to adapt and adjust to the changing environment in which it finds itself.” – Leon C. Megginson

#75 Lost...but not leased on 04.10.19 at 9:19 pm

#48 Smartalox

Re Moonlighting and double dipping civil(aka TAXPAYER FUNDED) servants.

A builder I knew once said it’s time to get out of the RE market when….. firemen, …..Telus employees,…. cab drivers and housewives get in on building homes..(probably includes any other RE connected field).

Perhaps CRA needs some brown envelopes with contents ?

#76 Troy McClure on 04.10.19 at 9:23 pm

Hey, what ever happened to that guy who used to rant about “dirty SHYSTERS”? I miss that guy. He would have loved this post.

Not as much as I miss Flop…

#77 Ustabe on 04.10.19 at 9:32 pm

Is there anything some of you don’t hate?

Besides realtors, bankers, Millennial’s, politicians, media, landlords, house buyers, house sellers, other provinces, your province, the people who live in other provinces, the people who live in your province?

I think mostly you must dislike yourself…it shows. Even Garth’s responses are less humorous of late and more barbed, more pointed.

When I had employees I always told them “don’t bring me problems, bring me solutions.”

I feel a significant percentage of you could ponder that for a bit.

#78 ROMANIA COUNTRY BREAD STEVESTON on 04.10.19 at 9:46 pm

I’m Nicks friend. I just spoke with him and he says there’s going to be a lot of real estate agents out of work as nothing is selling. He should know because he knows everybody, even more people than some of Garth’s readers who are soon going to be in the bread lines themselves

#79 not 1st on 04.10.19 at 9:47 pm

#62 tccontrarian on 04.10.19 at 8:12 pm

—–

You went all in on Canadian energy?? You do know that for Canadian energy to rebound like you hope it needs a catalyst like market access through new pipelines. Do you see any being built? $100B has left that sector probably never likely to return, a carbon tax to boot and new regulations being passed right now. This is a gamble.

You should have bought companies with both US and Canadian operations like Encana and Canadian refiners like Syncrude and Suncor like Buffet did.

#80 Chaddywack on 04.10.19 at 9:54 pm

Yeah CRA is the worst to owe money to. Within hours they can freeze and seize your bank account or garnish your wages….no need to go to court…just a signature from a team leader.

When I was younger and in some debt to them the emptied out my bank account. I called back and complained that they took my money. The collection officer told me that “I need to stop thinking of it as ‘my’ money because it’s theirs now”

Pay yourself first (unless it’s CRA then you pay them first!)

#81 Bobby Bittman on 04.10.19 at 10:04 pm

#76 Ustabe

A: Astute observers of trends.

Great observation Ustabe! and guilty as charged…..sometimes. Thanks for the delete yesterday Garth.

#82 Pfft on 04.10.19 at 10:14 pm

@#76 Ustabe on 04.10.19 at 9:32 pm
Is there anything some of you don’t hate?

Besides realtors, bankers, Millennial’s, politicians, media, landlords, house buyers, house sellers, other provinces, your province, the people who live in other provinces, the people who live in your province?

I think mostly you must dislike yourself…it shows. Even Garth’s responses are less humorous of late and more barbed, more pointed.

When I had employees I always told them “don’t bring me problems, bring me solutions.”

I feel a significant percentage of you could ponder that for a bit.
________________________

Whenever Things are going too good or i’m feeling a little too positive about life I come here to read the comments.
Don’t ruin it for me by guilt tripping these curmudgeons.

#83 tccontrarian on 04.10.19 at 10:31 pm

78 not 1st on 04.10.19 at 9:47 pm
#62 tccontrarian on 04.10.19 at 8:12 pm
—–
“You went all in on Canadian energy?? You do know that for Canadian energy to rebound like you hope it needs a catalyst…”
++

All in? Hardly – only about 15% of CAD side (which is about 1/2 of total, currently).

Last I checked (a few hours ago), it looked to me like it has already been ‘rebounding’!
Also, I suggest you start (carefully) listening to the ‘news’ – now that the price of oil is on a sustained uptrend (and equities responding likewise), you’ll be hearing expert after expert coming up with fundamental ‘reasons’ justifying higher prices.
In other words, the ‘news’ follows the market, not the other way around as most people think. Crazy, eh?

TCC

#84 Millmech on 04.10.19 at 10:36 pm

#42 Joe
A lot of commissions are 7% on the first 100k and 2% on everything after that, so they are quartering $13k, $3250 each.

#85 Vampire Studies (post grad) on 04.10.19 at 10:47 pm

39 Chelsea – BC took some big steps in re-working self-
regulation for the “cartel”

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/vancouver/real-estate-reform-in-bc-a-primer/article30642062/

76 Ustabe

“When I had employees I always told them “don’t bring me problems, bring me solutions.” ”

One of the biggest a-hole back stabbers I ever worked for told me that. But he was right. Excellent advice.

As far as the haters go, yes lots on this blog. Even some from the island. Thankfully they live at the other end.

#86 TheHardTruthOK on 04.10.19 at 10:50 pm

Everyone on hear dying to see real estate crash is going to be waiting a really, really long time, and then not get what they want.

Prices ‘maybe’ drop 10% in places like Kelowna and Victoria – that still makes them 30% higher in the past 3 years.

In the great scheme of real estate this is just a minor blip. All you folks thinking it’s going back to 3 or 4x average incomes are dreaming, and crying because you missed it.

Sad..

#87 DON on 04.10.19 at 11:14 pm

#41 Victoria on 04.10.19 at 7:01 pm

I have been told by RE agents here in Victoria that property will never go down here in Victoria … because its Victoria …..

***************

LOL I have heard the same thing from colleagues. What ever it takes to rock them to sleep at night.

Like Dolce I have a feeling that things will get real bad. How can they not? What is left to prop up this market when the pool of potential buyers is shallow and prices are already out of reach for the average family.

Facts speak louder than eternal hope.

@MF

Human nature prevents sellers from taking the first step to drastically cut their asking prices. Well…not until the herd stampedes to the exit. Now come the stories of financial hardship, divorce, those who just got out before it was too late.

#88 fishman on 04.10.19 at 11:20 pm

Turner Nation: B.C. Logging next? You got it. Nothing left on the coast as like huge dragon flies Sikorsky S64″s have picked it clean. Meanwhile those little B.C.milltowns geared up to cut half to a million BF (board foot 1″x12″x12″) per two shift day. Lotsa practice with lotsa product with all that bug kill.
Now all thats left is the high country. The foresters are freaking because every tree cut down up high has a multiple effect of three for water absorption to the low timber. Wait till the Greenies get hold of this.
Still some hope for forestry. As far as Fisheries, B.C.’s salmon’s been Newfied.

#89 Mohammad Omarkhail on 04.10.19 at 11:40 pm

Buy new and use your realtor to sell your existing house. Always buy after you sell.

#90 Bobby on 04.10.19 at 11:41 pm

Too many supposed realtors came into the market hoping to make a quick buck. What’s simpler than putting up a sign and picking the best offer? Easy money. From experience selling a house recently, many had minimal market knowledge, lacked people and communication skills and had absolutely no clue how to sell anything. When asked what was their plan to sell the house, most just said the MLS. It was sad, in some cases just pathetic. We chose the same realtor that we always use and won’t hesitate to recommend him again.
Within a year, the good, solid realtors will still be in business. The others, who knows, but most probably waiting for the next quick gig.
Sorry, I have no sympathy for those realtors that are struggling. The commissions are unrealistic for the amount of work required in a robust market.

#91 Nonplused on 04.11.19 at 12:10 am

Life as a realtor was never all that great unless you were in the 1%.

#92 Bdog on 04.11.19 at 12:12 am

A lot of talk, still waiting for meaningful change.

#93 Sweet Cosmic Love on 04.11.19 at 12:30 am

#1 First glimpse of the T2 budget on 04.10.19 at 4:55 pm

Infinite darkness… keep digging that hole T2….

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-first-ever-photograph-of-a-black-hole/#comments

——————————————–
Love is a burning thing
And it makes a fiery ring
Bound by wild desire
I fell into a ring of fire

I fell into a burning ring of fire
I went down, down, down and the flames went higher
And it burns, burns, burns
The ring of fire, the ring of fire

The taste of love is sweet
When hearts like ours meet
I fell for you like a child
Oh, but the fire went wild

I fell into a burning ring of fire
I went down, down, down and the flames went higher
And it burns, burns, burns
The ring of fire, the ring of fire

And it burns, burns, burns
The ring of fire, the ring of fire
The ring of fire, the ring of fire

#94 april on 04.11.19 at 12:49 am

#75 – We miss them both.

#95 Smoking Man on 04.11.19 at 12:51 am

Being an obsessive political junky its hard to abstain talking about current shit. I know with the hyper polarization going out there, going to be consequences for having a big mouth .

Playing an idiot to keep the brown shirts from kicking in my door probably isent going to work anymore.

The globalist , their minions are losing badly. desperation will turn the kids violent.

Christ they have a few generations of newly schooled zombies that will be unleashed with a few implanted trigger words. May even murder their parents.

Well screw it…..

Smoking Man is coming back to the slay the swine , to old to surf. Still got two good thumbs.

Let’s rock globalists.

#96 fishman on 04.11.19 at 12:56 am

Don’t sell your B.C. Lumber producers just because their running out of timber up here. They bought up all the mills down in Georgia, Alabama, deep south,transferred their technology & will do just fine. Their fast growing white pine is crap for the builders. No match for our northern SPF (spruce pine fir). Does the trick though.

#97 Rargary on 04.11.19 at 1:10 am

I guess Happy Housing Crash is gone with new wings somewhere lol. Realtors without work? Can’t even go on E.I… McDonald’s is always hiring!

#98 DON on 04.11.19 at 1:11 am

The following is based on Australia>

What happens below happens above?

“Still, Creagh cautioned that central bankers’ pledges for patience on rate moves can only prop up markets for so long.”

“We’ve had a lot of dovish talk, but we haven’t actually had any real action,” she said. “The fundamentals are being pushed to the side, and we’re just seeing this rally being driven off the back of the sentiment that central banks are going to be easing.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-10/australia-s-economy-is-slowing-its-stock-market-isn-t

#99 BC Renovator on 04.11.19 at 1:32 am

No Upppa Uppa! ;-)

#100 millmech on 04.11.19 at 2:51 am

A realtor has sent me a bunch of new listing today for ten houses that came on the market today in a city I am looking to invest in. I have been running those numbers from sale prices from 2002 era and add 2% a year for actual appreciation. They still have 40% to go down yet and they will, I can stay irrational longer than they can stay solvent.

#101 on the event horizon on 04.11.19 at 2:54 am

My sad feels start up when I think of the people getting poor who bought into the sq/ft industry. When you get a new dishsoap bottle, dump half into the old bottle and top them both up with water… a hint of soap goes twice as far. Run the toothpaste tube against the corner of a wall to push a few more mornings out. Cook for extras, even if there’s only one person, and freeze the rest. Eat more pioneer food. Tap into the wisdom of depression era ancestors. And if you can fix anything, you can be a pillar of the campground. Learn to read or whittle for entertainment. Life can have simple pleasures. Run for government! Hope this helps.

#102 expat on 04.11.19 at 4:48 am

#62 TC contrarian

You sound like those jerks neighbors 3 years ago who said only an idiot didn’t have 5 rental or spec houses….

How did that work for them now?

Your strategy is great if oil stays at 60 bucks or better.
Word of caution, you are all in Cdn oil…..

You do realize smart money has left Cdn Oil?

You have no diversification into shale in North Dakota or in another currency or political region…..

#103 The Great Gordonski on 04.11.19 at 5:01 am

#78 not1st, you might not understand why anyone would go headlong on energy stocks when the the noise from Trudeaus Activist Army sounds so negative for the sector. Headline media is always 100% wrong.

A couple of months ago I wrote herein the entire rationale for a break out in NRG (TSX) so I’m not going to repeat it, water under the bridge. But as a sector we’re up 20% on that call. Several individual stocks did better and just might be the ten baggers we expect from “Bum luck”. Buffet was only partially right to single out SU. Garth would call that ‘dumb luck’ , fine, but it’s still real money. Plenty upside IMHO.

While I’m here Ill update my BKNG call of Feb., up nicely $164 USD p/s, dumb luck again, I suppose, but decent money all the same.

Oh well, back to the dark and dangerous world of stock picking.

#104 Stan Brooks on 04.11.19 at 5:58 am

There is no simple solution to the opioid overdoses crisis.

https://ca.yahoo.com/news/opioid-overdoses-claimed-more-3-173546588.html

There is no simple solution to the credit crisis.

Why the idiots that we elect always look for simple solutions?
Because they not capable of finding complex
solutions.

For that a brain is required and when all you have is a behind you just keep producing output from it. That’s what they know how to do folks.

And they the one in charge of determining your standard of life, finances, future and well being.

#105 Under the radar on 04.11.19 at 6:05 am

Fact is , a lot of folks needed to prepare themselves for a moribund real estate market.

#106 TomMac on 04.11.19 at 6:14 am

OREA and RECO, the Ontario bodies for education and governance, don’t limit the number of salespeople. They really just care about collecting their course fees and dues and have little regard for the ridiculous imbalance of registrants in the GTA right now. Heck, you want to be part time? No problem. So long as you pay us. What other industry allows that? But they’re going to be in for a rude awakening. Tim Hudak might be looking for a job in the not to distant future.

#107 Stan Brooks on 04.11.19 at 6:24 am

Nothing personal, just Business.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/canada-s-bank-ceos-extremely-ill-prepared-for-credit-cycle-the-big-short-s-eisman-1.1241950

#108 Captain Uppa on 04.11.19 at 6:58 am

>>#98 BC Renovator on 04.11.19 at 1:32 am
No Upppa Uppa! ;-)>>

No I’m still here.

As for Realtors, I can’t imagine having any type of career based on commission. I once worked for a lawn company when I was younger doing sales, and it’s fine when you’re just a kid doing part-time, but good Lord I would not want to depend on commission for income.

#109 Captain Uppa on 04.11.19 at 7:08 am

FREE JULIAN ASSANGE!

#110 CROOKED JASON KENNEY - LOCK HIM UP!! on 04.11.19 at 7:39 am

OMG.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/allegations-of-voter-fraud-levelled-against-jason-kenney-in-ucp-leadership-race-1.4375038

UCP had rigged FAKE EMAILS in place with PIN codes to allow voters to select their new leader.

Seriously, Alberta!? You’re gonna even consider voting for this fraud?

If you want to become Albertamala, go ahead.

But leave Canada.

#111 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.11.19 at 7:53 am

@#76 Ustabe
“Anything you people dont hate……Besides realtors, bankers, Millennial’s, politicians, media, landlords, house buyers, house sellers, other provinces, your province, the people who live in other provinces, the people who live in your province?”

*****
Realtors and politicians vie for 1st place in my world but
Head down texting while walking/driving….is a very close follow up.

#112 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.11.19 at 8:01 am

@#65 Pffft( silent but deadly)
“LOLOLOL”

+++++

How many hours did that well thought out response take you?

#113 Tater on 04.11.19 at 8:03 am

#24 Bob Dog on 04.10.19 at 6:28 pm
I can’t think of a group of people I despise more than Realtors™. Bankers of course are far more evil but I don’t really consider them people.

Tesla in the process of closing its stores and going 100% online sales. This needs to happen in the housing market. Who wants to bootstrap a tech startup to make it happen? Oh right… Canada has almost no tech talent beyond fools with an MBA who like to walk around parroting fancy words they read on the net.
—————————————————————-

Tesla is in the midst of a massive cash crunch. That’s why they are closing stores. Sales are slumping, Panasonic is limiting investment in the gigafactory, competitors are coming to market (finally). Tesla will have to re-org. Hope you didn’t by the stock off their “disruptive” new sales model.

#114 cto on 04.11.19 at 8:08 am

IMO, the fault comes back to CENTRAL BANKERS and dropping interest rates to levels never seen before and leaving them there indefinitely! THIS POLICY HAS CREATED AN ENORMOUS MISALLOCATION OF MONEY including the real estate community.
Sorry realtors, you were just caught up in a systemic failure of bad policy by Canada’s central bank. There has been and will be many more residual effects of the banks failure. So… if its any consolation…you will not be the only ones

#115 CROOKED JASON KENNEY - LOCK HIM UP!! on 04.11.19 at 8:22 am

So if Jason Kenny was elected by fake emails from people who did not intend to vote for him, what does that say for the future of Alberta democracy? Will he spend four years embroiled in legal issues instead of governing? Will he end up in prison?

https://twitter.com/handmaidalberta?lang=en

And think very carefully, Albertans. If you vote UCP, you are guaranteeing Trudeau wins in October.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-kenney-ford-analysis-wherry-1.5091975

There are lots of good, smart Albertans. Do the right thing. Don’t vote for a crook.

#116 the Jaguar on 04.11.19 at 8:36 am

87&95 and then there is post#100.

Hard to pick a favourite post today. Fishman is my perennial inspiration, but I like the simplicity of On the Event Horizon. Imagine reminding people of simple pleasures like reading a book. Imagine. Blows ones mind.

#117 HH on 04.11.19 at 8:40 am

@ 76, 81

Spot on! Heh-heh…

I come here for my daily dose of darkness too.
To indulge a perverse penchant for venom, bitching and negativity.

Yep, the comment section on this blog is a roiling cesspool snakepit sort of place. But that’s what people come here for.

Garth occasionally sheds a few crocodile tears about the tone of the steerage section. But who sets that tone?

Garth himself is to personal finance blogging what Gordon Ramsay is to cooking shows. More refined writing, no profanity, but same idea. Half of why people follow him is to see him skewer, slap and insult visitors, advise seekers and dissenting blog dogs alike. Admit it, you all, it’s the mordant bullying part of his style that draws you in, no?

So, yeah, it’s a vicious pack of blog dogs, but only because it’s run by a brutal leader.

#118 Paul on 04.11.19 at 8:51 am

I have been an agent for over 30 years. Always paid taxes at source and had the broker administrate the hst.
So many realtors live beyond their means in good markets when the music stops no chair.

#119 The Great Gordonski on 04.11.19 at 9:16 am

BTW, Gold is a trading vehicle, no matter what your politics, just like Bitcoin. So, don’t discount it, which is amateurish, even if you dont like it, money is money. If horse shit was fungible I’d trade it. Money is money.

https://www.gold-eagle.com/article/inverted-yield-curve-harbinger-higher-gold-prices

#120 David Pylyp on 04.11.19 at 9:39 am

Real Estate is a service business.

We need to find ways to improve the level of value we provide to our clients.

http://DigitalImagingToronto.com

Adopt technology. Find a Niche Prove your experience.

David Pylyp
Toronto

#121 Smoking Man on 04.11.19 at 9:53 am

Not a good day for the Clinton’s.
The timing of JA arrest is interesting. What took so long.

Now that Trump has control of the DOJ FBI and the other deep state depts.

The million dollar question. Who gave the clinton emails to JA

Or who killed Seth Rich. The shit show is about start.

#122 IHCTD9 on 04.11.19 at 10:19 am

#191 yvrmc on 04.10.19 at 4:16 pm

Now if I could only figure out what the heck IHCTD9 means .
_____

International Harvester Corporation TD9

T = Tracked
D = Diesel
9 = Model number

A tracked loader, 350 cubic inch 4 cylinder gasoline start diesel , 20,000 lbs, 14,000 lift capacity, 16,000 lb breakout force, DROTT Z bar loader. Date of manufacture approx. 1959.

#123 TurnerNation on 04.11.19 at 10:34 am

The reset. My thesis is LOW Growth Kanada due to corruption, SJW totalitarianism, and Stoners.

“Globe says housing slowdown hits Leon’s, Sleep Country

2019-04-11 09:18 ET – In the News The Globe and Mail reports in its Thursday edition that housing slowdown has cast its shadow on some segments of the Canadian stock market. The Globe’s Tim Shufelt writes that a dramatic decline in national home sales is proving a hindrance on everything from mortgage activity to retail spending. “Think about how far residential investment spreads across the economy,” BMO economist Robert Kavcic said. “Retail spending is one area where it has a big impact, like furniture and renovation activity.” That impact is apparent when looking at the stock charts for companies such as Leon’s Furniture and Sleep Country Canada Holdings, which have declined by 15 per cent and 33 per cent, respectively, over about the past six months. That time frame coincides with a contraction in retail sales in housing-related segments. Year-over-year spending on furniture, appliances and building materials has declined for four consecutive months. Years of frenzied home sales in Canada combined with rampant growth in prices, particularly in the country’s biggest cities, have given way to a market constrained by higher mortgage rates and stricter underwriting rules. Since July, 2017, the Bank of Canada has implemented five rate hikes. © 2019 Canjex Publishing Ltd. All rights reserved.”

#124 Mattl on 04.11.19 at 10:36 am

Always get a chuckle at the posts complaining how much Realtors make. Sure barriers to entry are low but as if you just run the 6 week course then start picking up listings. You either need to be networked very well, have a family member or friend in the business, or go out with a stack of flyers and bang doors. I know a few that got in for the easy money and they found it impossible to get listings.

And if it is so easy, then go for it. Can’t beat em, join em.

And if you don’t want to use one, do what I did and list privately (once) or grind one down on their rate.

#125 dharma bum on 04.11.19 at 10:51 am

#26 Ace Goodheart

“I know a number of people who no longer work and who live and travel comfortably off of the money they made from this situation.”
——————————————————————–

AKA: Dharma Bums
**********************************************

“However, now things have gone backwards. Those who got in at the end, paying millions for small crappy lots and building massive houses on them, cannot sell the houses”.
——————————————————————-

AKA: Ponzi Scheme.

Timing is everything.

#126 millmech on 04.11.19 at 10:57 am

#85
I am seeing price drops in some markets of over your 30% and it has just started, wait until the fall, give it six months of low sales and then the price drops will be a lot higher.

#127 Remembrancer on 04.11.19 at 11:26 am

#120 Smoking Man on 04.11.19 at 9:53 am

The timing of JA arrest is interesting. What took so long.
———————————————
Ecuador finally evicted him after he spread feces over the walls reportedly – just another Airbnb horror story…

#128 tkid on 04.11.19 at 11:28 am

#48, the problem with spending the side-hustle money is at first you spend it on special projects. Vacations, etc. Then you start to spend it on monthly wants. New furniture, upgrade the car, etc. Soon, you start to spend it on your monthly bills, and then you are toast. You’ve become used to having that side-hustle money, and your budget can’t survive losing that extra money.

You’re much better off saving the side-hustle money.

#129 SeeB on 04.11.19 at 11:31 am

#6 expat on 04.10.19 at 5:26 pm
Carbon taxes kicked in April 1st
Climate Barbie just gave Loblaws 12 million to upgrade their freezers.

Guess where the money comes from. Yup your gas taxes that kicked in a few weeks ago.

Socialism is great if you are on the right side of policy….

—————————————————————–

A corporation gets a handout and the steerage section calls it socialism. I guess words mean whatever people want them to mean.

#130 The Real Mark on 04.11.19 at 11:35 am

#33 BlogDog123 on 04.10.19 at 6:42 pm
Real Estate Agents:
A career fraught with temptations to behave against the interest of their clients. Two examples:

Selling agent: To get commission, the property must sell. No sell, no commission. Thus selling to any bidder is essential. In a sinking market, convincing your client to take any offer lets you collect the fee. Not necessarily the best price for my client because waiting longer means longer time without the transaction fee. In a frothy market, selling agent and selling client are happy as long as “highest price achieved quickly”.

Buying agent: I am competing with other buying agents to “win” that property. I must convince my buying client to bid highest so “I win” my share of commission. Against the best interest of my client, unless they’re really desperate for that house.

Above scenarios are illustrations only, but you can see how the agent you hire may be motivated to “make the transaction happen” rather than get you, the client, a sale price that meets the client’s target.”

In a real estate transaction there is a listing agent and a selling agent. What you believe to be a buyer’s agent is actually the selling agent in a transaction. Both agents work on behalf of sellers, and are bound to by contracts and agreements stating such beyond those in a property transaction.

One agent lists a property for sellers, another one sells the property to buyers, both are compensated by the sellers. Both are under aggreements to get the most money for all sellers listing on the local MLS no matter what side of the transaction they are on.

Too many people misunderstand this concept.

#131 Lidia Hamel on 04.11.19 at 11:38 am

I’m curious as per how quickly should I be repaying my HBP after the sale of a home?

#132 not 1st on 04.11.19 at 11:41 am

#114 CROOKED JASON KENNEY – LOCK HIM UP!! on 04.11.19 at 8:22 am

Collateral damage in the war that’s about to come. Ab will worry about electing the pope next time once its off its knees.

#133 Penny Henny on 04.11.19 at 11:55 am

Good newsletter Shawn Allen

#134 IHCTD9 on 04.11.19 at 12:49 pm

#193 Remembrancer on 04.10.19 at 5:23 pm

…More a D9 guy myself, unless its possessed by an alien, then fry ’em…
___

I’d love a D9 (and a D2 and D4 too). The problem is convincing Ms. IH that we actually need a 90 thousand pound dozer for yard work : ).

Oh, and paying for it…

#135 IHCTD9 on 04.11.19 at 12:52 pm

#190 Blacksheep on 04.10.19 at 3:48 pm
IHCTD9 # 188,

“Correct. I’d add the vast majority from taxation.”
————————–
100% agree..

Is there something wrong with this that I’m missing?
____

Not really. There was a point in the works regarding if a public employee actually financially enriches the government by “paying taxes”, but I’m giving up on it.

#136 Steven Rowlandson on 04.11.19 at 1:23 pm

Without mandatory 6 figure incomes and full employment for all workers there is no way the current real estate prices can be supported no matter how low interest rates go or how long mortgage terms are. The real life monopoly game is over. There is no income support to keep the game going. Employers will not and can not pay $80+ per hour plus wages for 2000 hours per year per employee for unskilled or even skilled labor. They won’t do it. They might tolerate existing minimum wage as maximum wage and on a reduced hours basis and that just supports late 1960s or early 1970s home prices. Time for all you dreamers out there who though real estate was a sure fire path to prosperity to wake up and smell the coffee. No one can afford your fantasies any more.

#137 IHCTD9 on 04.11.19 at 1:55 pm

#128 SeeB on 04.11.19 at 11:31 am

… I guess words mean whatever people want them to mean.
______

You are gaining wisdom.

#138 Remembrancer on 04.11.19 at 2:02 pm

#133 IHCTD9 on 04.11.19 at 12:49 pm

Here’s a restoration project coming up for bid that I came across… Loading it to trailer it home might be a challenge though…

https://www.auctiontime.com/listings/construction-equipment/auctions/online/32223257/1978-cat-d9h?gtmlt=1&_ga=2.215004183.1415397555.1555005091-1138286104.1555005088

#139 IHCTD9 on 04.11.19 at 2:05 pm

#135 Steven Rowlandson on 04.11.19 at 1:23 pm

Without mandatory 6 figure incomes and full employment for all workers there is no way the current real estate prices can be supported no matter how low interest rates go or how long mortgage terms are.
____

Depends on what folks do. 10+% of Brampton households are multi-generational consisting of 8-12 people 4-5 who work – all living in one house. They save big and make enough altogether to cover the mortgage.

I see similar scenarios out here in the sticks with economic families and multi-families. These are even more purposeful economic unions than the Brampton families. All of them generally work less the kids.

Then there’s the under the table tenants that help cover the monthly.

I agree the majority of typical Western households are priced out in the GTA/YVR – but folks are obviously thinking about alternative ways to make ends meet.

#140 Linda on 04.11.19 at 2:14 pm

Holy Hannah, I am actually going to say a few words in defense of realtors. To wit: buyers & sellers are the ones who determine price & say ‘yes’ or ‘no’ during the negotiation process. They are legal adults who are mentally competent to enter into a contract. Have realtors obfuscated, massaged & twisted facts into pretzels? Based on what I’ve read & heard, absolutely. However, the responsibility/consequences for your own actions/decisions is yours.

#141 tccontrarian on 04.11.19 at 2:44 pm

101 expat on 04.11.19 at 4:48 am
———-
#62 TC contrarian

You sound like those jerks neighbors 3 years ago who said only an idiot didn’t have 5 rental or spec houses….

How did that work for them now?

Your strategy is great if oil stays at 60 bucks or better.
Word of caution, you are all in Cdn oil…..

You do realize smart money has left Cdn Oil?

You have no diversification into shale in North Dakota or in another currency or political region…..
———————-

You need to read more carefully.
I have plenty of diversification. I only listed the Canadian holdings, which IN TOTAL constitute <7-8% of my portfolio.
Including ETFs, I have exposure to 400-600 companies across the entire globe: China, India, Turkey, USA, Colombia, Poland, etc…. I haven't done an actual count, and I don't need to. So, if ALL my Canadian energy holdings go to "0", I'll be fine, trust me.
Thanks for the concern tho… but read more carefully.

TCC

#142 NoName on 04.11.19 at 3:04 pm

#129 The Real Mark on 04.11.19 at 11:35 am

“both are compensated by the sellers”

Seller does write a chq, but not until buyer hands a money over. Only party in transaction with money is buyer.

Maybe if seller pays up front for commission when he enters a contract to sell, then you can say that that selling and buying agent are compensated by seller.

Who pays who when buyers financing falls through half way thru contract, sale was made, but noone got paid…

#143 paul on 04.11.19 at 3:23 pm

#129 The Real Mark on 04.11.19 at 11:35 am

#33 BlogDog123 on 04.10.19 at 6:42 pm
Real Estate Agents:
A career fraught with temptations to behave against the interest of their clients. Two examples:

Selling agent: To get commission, the property must sell. No sell, no commission. Thus selling to any bidder is essential. In a sinking market, convincing your client to take any offer lets you collect the fee. Not necessarily the best price for my client because waiting longer means longer time without the transaction fee. In a frothy market, selling agent and selling client are happy as long as “highest price achieved quickly”.

Buying agent: I am competing with other buying agents to “win” that property. I must convince my buying client to bid highest so “I win” my share of commission. Against the best interest of my client, unless they’re really desperate for that house.

Above scenarios are illustrations only, but you can see how the agent you hire may be motivated to “make the transaction happen” rather than get you, the client, a sale price that meets the client’s target.”

In a real estate transaction there is a listing agent and a selling agent. What you believe to be a buyer’s agent is actually the selling agent in a transaction. Both agents work on behalf of sellers, and are bound to by contracts and agreements stating such beyond those in a property transaction.

One agent lists a property for sellers, another one sells the property to buyers, both are compensated by the sellers. Both are under aggreements to get the most money for all sellers listing on the local MLS no matter what side of the transaction they are on.

Too many people misunderstand this concept.
____________________________________________
Here is the concept. If and when you sign a B.R.A. {Buyers representation agreement }That agent works for YOU.

Never sign a BRA. – Garth

#144 The Real Mark on 04.11.19 at 3:26 pm

“#129 The Real Mark on 04.11.19 at 11:35 am “

Nice try…fake “The Real Mark”.

And its actually the buyer who pays for it all, as they’re the only people bringing money to the table.

#145 Blacksheep on 04.11.19 at 3:49 pm

IHCTD9,

Thanks for the civil discourse.

#146 Doug in London on 04.11.19 at 4:26 pm

expat, post #6:
Did it ever occur to you Loblaws might pass on some the cost savings to grocery shoppers like YOU, giving you an additional break as well as the tax rebate you get from the benevolent government? I must sign off now, to ride my bike to Loblaws and pick up a few grocery items myself.

#147 Doug in London on 04.11.19 at 4:36 pm

@tccontrarian, post #62:
It looks like you understand an idea most people don’t appear to understand, namely buy low and sell high. I like to read the comments here and when there’s a lot of bellyaching about how some asset class has dropped, like stocks and equity ETFs last December, it’s time to dive right in and scoop up some bargains!

#148 paul on 04.11.19 at 4:44 pm

Too many people misunderstand this concept.
____________________________________________
Here is the concept. If and when you sign a B.R.A. {Buyers representation agreement }That agent works for YOU.

Never sign a BRA. – Garth
—————————————————————–
It’s simple keep it short, for a specific property.
I have never tried to hold a buyer that didn’t want to work with me.

Correct. If you have to sign, make it for one property/address and the length of the offer process. – Garth

#149 Blogdog123 on 04.11.19 at 4:47 pm

#142 etc…
You can understand how all agents needing any deal getting done is their primary interest…

Secondary are being able to boast about xx percent over asking… Other nice photos for their direct mail flyers to drum up business…

The point I was making is the agent’s interests can sometimes be opposite of yours. Hence the BRA you should not sign because it completely protects their interests and punishes the buyer if they go around that agent…

#150 CRA on 04.11.19 at 4:49 pm

Not answering the phone when CRA calls about unremitted HST won’t help you. That’s theft for which they can throw you in prison.

How dare you collect HST from a client and then use it to find your Audi payments. We gave you that tax money to give to the CRA you greedy SOBs.

#151 MBA101 on 04.11.19 at 4:56 pm

It’s not a contest. – Garth

_______

I’ll take that bet. Well I kinda did with an investment of 135k (600k purchase price) in the FV last year. Generates $3200 per month before costs. Plan is to subdivide in the long-term.

I think it will beat a 60/40 portfolio over the next 15 years. In the shorter term (10 years) it might be close.

#152 The Real Mark on 04.11.19 at 5:09 pm

“#143 The Real Mark on 04.11.19 at 3:26 pm
“#129 The Real Mark on 04.11.19 at 11:35 am “

Nice try…fake “The Real Mark”.

And its actually the buyer who pays for it all, as they’re the only people bringing money to the table.”

This needs to stop. Any long term lover of Ross Kay knows the truth. Do you even listen to Ross? He’s on Howestreet and quite good. You should give give him a try.

#153 Gravy Train on 04.11.19 at 5:24 pm

#134 IHCTD9 on 04.11.19 at 12:52 pm
“[…] There was a point in the works regarding if a public employee actually financially enriches the government by ‘paying taxes’, but I’m giving up on it.” Here’s one last kick at the can—and then I, too, will give up! Salaries paid to public servants are classified in the public accounts as government expense, not a netting of or an offset against government income. Does that help? :P

#154 Remembrancer on 04.11.19 at 5:38 pm

#141 NoName on 04.11.19 at 3:04 pm
#129 The Real Mark on 04.11.19 at 11:35 am

“both are compensated by the sellers”

Seller does write a chq, but not until buyer hands a money over. Only party in transaction with money is buyer.

Maybe if seller pays up front for commission when he enters a contract to sell, then you can say that that selling and buying agent are compensated by seller.

Who pays who when buyers financing falls through half way thru contract, sale was made, but noone got paid…
———————————
Not everyone didn’t get paid. Deposit money is held by the seller’s broker, they’ll make sure they have first dibs if the deal goes sideways due to the buyer…

Commission is a cost to the seller but make no mistake paid for by the buyer – reflected in the asking price, any bids over asking payments or as a discount on asking by the seller…

#155 Doug in London on 04.11.19 at 10:41 pm

People who said they’d pounce on anything that dropped in value have vanished.
————————————————————-
Yes, I wonder what happened to them, making comments like:

“And why do I still think real estate prices will continue to shoot up in Vancouver and Toronto defying all logic for eternity?”
cause if any ‘dip’ occurs the pent up buyers will come out of the woodwork to buy…rinse and repeat…
maybe not ‘eternity’ but much longer than anyone can imagine…
So why aren’t these buyers all swooping in, where are they?

#156 Ignorance Is Bliss on 04.12.19 at 12:08 am

#42 Joe – Is anyone actually paying 6% commission these days? If so, they’re nuts. My MIL’s place just sold and the realtor fee was 3.5%….selling price $270,000. London area market, still very hot. Not as much demand for an old house in need of renovating, but it still got 4 offers after a few days, 3 of them above asking.

#157 Steven Rowlandson on 04.12.19 at 7:39 am

Well Linda the responsibility for wage levels rests with the employers and the responsibility for home prices and rents rests with homeowners, landlords ,land ladies and real estate sales people. If their actions and policies deprive people of habitation and a place to have a family under reasonable terms then they are culpable under international law. It is called genocide under article 2 section c and d of the genocide convention. Please refer to the international declaration on human rights also.
Political correctness, personal choice, supply and demand, greed and survival of the richest are not valid defences against the charge of genocide and crimes against humanity……
Canada is not supposed to be one of Dr. John Calhoun’s Mouse utopia experiments.

As for me I have never owned a home, sold or rented out places to live and I have never employed others…. My hands are clean.
The offences of people who do such things are not my fault and I refuse to accept blame for such offences done by others. If you can’t bear to accept that then it is you that has a problem, not me.

#158 Last of the Boomers on 04.12.19 at 9:27 am

#154 Doug in London

Re: ….. Where are they….

They are patiently waiting for prices to come down to 3 to 4 times income . with wisdom, Very, very patiently….

#156 Steve R.

You are absolutely right! And the people of B.C. Know you are right, hence the changes which are slowly bringing down real estate prices in B.C. Still more loopholes to close, and a massive corruption clean-up to undertake with help needed from the Feds, but I have no doubt, with the integrity of the current provincial government, we will eventually get there.