The reset

Remember the shared-equity mortgage? Sure ya do. That was the fetching little cherry sitting atop the last federal budget, designed to divert moister eyes from the T2 disaster unfolding down below.

So, we have news about this.

But first the other news. The bad stuff. Trudeau’s Lavalin nightmare isn’t getting any better and, in fact, he’s made it dramatically worse. Instead of following the First Rule of Politics (deny everything and go the hell away) the prime minister is suing the Con leader for stuff he said. Dumb. Nobody cares what Andrew Scheer mutters. But the story now has new legs and any court proceedings will only remind people how sleazy it is. Worse, T2 apparently broke the law by punting JWR and her buddy Jane from the caucus and the party. Shortly after S. Harper did the same to me, MPs passed legislation to prevent a leader from overturning what voters had chosen. Only by a full vote of caucus can a member be skewered. And no vote was held. Shame.

It’s a big year for Canadian politics. Notley next week. Trudeau in October. Two for two, or zero all round? In Alberta Dipper premier Rachel has actually won a lot of admiration for dealing with the oil crisis like an oilman and, of course, not acting like tax-crazy Comrade Horgan on the left coast. But she’s still a socialist. Con leader Jason Kenney, a bully at the best of times, is tarnished by having resorted to deceit and dirty tricks to win his leadership. Voters have a heartbreaking choice.

Anyway, back to the buy-off-a-Millennial home strategy unveiled March 19th.  The kids can now suck up to $35,000 each from an RSP for a down payment (and must repay it over 15 years or be taxed) plus apply to share their mortgage with Ottawa. As stated here, this is a rad idea. The federal government takes a piece of your home loan, allowing you to escape payments on it, then demands part of any profits when the place is sold. The feds admit, yes, this will inflate the price of real estate – but not as much as a return to 30-year mortgages or gutting the stress test would have. CMHC also figures the shared mortgage plan would have added more than 2,000 extra buyers in Toronto last year and a thousand in Vancouver. That sounds like enough demand to move the price needle, no?

We now know the maximum house price for this program: $505,000. That’s based on a couple with a $120,000 household income who manage to come up with a 5% down payment (plus closing costs) and borrow another 5% from the taxpayers. Unlike the RRSP loan, there are no payments on this money. Ever. Not until a sale takes place. If the kids opt for a new-build, the government share rises to 10%.

So, it starts in September. But what if Trudeau ends in October?

   

There was a time when your folding money bore these words: “Will pay to the bearer upon demand.” Now the cash says, “This note is legal tender.” That’s because there’s nothing standing behind money but the government’s ability to tax, and the central bank’s skill at containing the money supply.

But that’s cool. The system works. These days there is relatively little inflation, historically low interest rates, wage and price stability, no recession and ample credit. But that’s not good enough for many, including the God-and-guns crowd who distrust government, hate globalism, support nationalism and tend towards being anti-vaxxers and pro-Trumpers.

No surprise then that  the rebel president would nominate a pro-gold guy to sit on the board of governors of the Fed, America’s central bank and the leading monetary influence on the planet. Herman Cain dropped out of the 2016 presidential race on sex allegations, has said he’d never hire a Muslim, and has argued the States should go back on the gold standard. Thus, although having briefly been the CEO of a pizza empire, he’s a flake.

For about a hundred years, until WW1, US money was nominally backed by gold, mostly sitting in Fort Knox. That ended after the war but the dollar was tied to gold until Nixon quashed that in 1971. Since then money has been called ‘fiat’ which means ‘decree’. Because the government decrees a piece of paper is worth twenty bucks, it is.

Gold nuts argue that having money backed by physical stuff means the government can’t turn on the printing presses, wildly inflate things and destroy the value of your savings. Besides, they have gold. Naked self-interest.

But not tying money to stuff gives central banks wide powers they could never otherwise employ, like the ability to create credit in times of recession to stimulate demand and turn the economy back on. This is exactly what happened following the 2008-9 financial crisis. With ‘quantitative easing’ the Fed was able to arbitrarily collapse the cost of money (interest rates) while creating funds to buy bonds that allowed banks to increase lending. Many people believe this stopped a recession from becoming a depression.

Of course, the gold nuts wanted a depression. They call it a ‘reset’. And, remember, they have the gold.

Herman Cain is perhaps Donald Trump’s greatest folly. Pray he isn’t confirmed. But not to Allah.

201 comments ↓

#1 espressobob on 04.09.19 at 4:27 pm

I have a funny feeling the goldbugs will be in full bloom tonight. This should prove most amusing.

#2 n1tro on 04.09.19 at 4:32 pm

Can I pray to Buddha?

#3 holly on 04.09.19 at 4:39 pm

HC was The Chair of the Kansas Fed… the Fed have been “talking” about getting more local experience on the Board… any reason you left that out?

And, look what happened to the value of our dollar after the gold standard was ended… hmmmm
https://inflationcalculator.ca/

Cain was a regional Kansas Fed guy for three years. That qualifies him to grow wheat. – Garth

#4 greyhound on 04.09.19 at 4:49 pm

“With ‘quantitative easing’ the Fed was able to arbitrarily collapse the cost of money (interest rates) while creating funds to buy bonds that allowed banks to increase lending. Many people believe this stopped a recession from becoming a depression.”

Yes, it may have; but the problem is that they didn’t know when to stop: Up until recently most of the central banks were still doing “QE,” almost 10 years later. The folks with assets got richer, but folks with salaries got poorer; and the more money the CBs conjured into existence with their QE, the wider the wealth gap.
Is it any wonder that now we get Populism. And it’s growing.

#5 CF BABY on 04.09.19 at 4:49 pm

Only 3 things matter in life… health, family & CF!!!!
CASH FLOW!!!!!

#6 Mike on 04.09.19 at 4:57 pm

“Voters have a heartbreaking choice.”

The only choice Alberta voters have is who they think will do them the least amount of harm. I’ve never witnessed such a pathetic bunch of political losers. You may as well be in communist Russia and handed a ballot with only one choice, because at the end of the day, most politicians know nothing of the economy and it’s inner machinations and only serve their own enrichment (current company excluded of course).

#7 Dogman01 on 04.09.19 at 5:01 pm

#73 Nonplused
Most people don’t want to be the manager for free, managing people is a lot of hassle because people are assholes.
——————————————————————–
187 dharma bum on 04.09.19 at 11:09 am
It was a painful existence, primarily because of having to deal with people (i.e., employees). A never ending nightmare. Like being the orderly in an insane asylum.

Thanks to the availability of financial educational materials like this blog, books, good advisors, and the will to get out of the corporate slave rat race as soon as possible, I was able to escape the endless trauma of that horrible life.

ME Too – I was Supervisor\Manager for most of my career. My primary function was to prevent my Bosses from having to deal with any problems so they could focus on the true purpose of the organization, internecine politicking and career advancement – Yes it was Government.

Most problems were caused by an 60% unproductive cohort of staff….dealing with those staff in a substantive manner would cause much bigger problems for the Bosses….so don’t do it.

Supervisor = Flack Jacket for Executive Leadership.

I was paid decently and had a DB pension, then simply saved – saved – saved, invested and got the hell out.

Supervising\Managing “people” – It add 10 years to your “burnout” point – so it better pay to make up for those years.

#8 Reality is stark on 04.09.19 at 5:03 pm

Canadian politicians say a lot of crazy things but how do they manage what they can actually control?
Let’s look at something obvious.
After the financial crisis we should have been able to get employees for lower wages for the high level of job security that comes with public sector employment.
According to Livio De Matteo professor of Economics at Lakehead University “From 2003 to 2013 employment in Canada’s public sector increased by 22.6% more than double the rate of increase in the private sector of 10.7%. By a considerable margin this phenomenon was most pronounced in Ontario. From 2003 to 2013 public sector employment growth in Ontario (27.6%) dramatically outpaced private sector employment growth (5.6%).
The overall public service wage bill should have declined to 2003 levels in Canada by 2013. That would have been prudent.
After the financial crisis we had the opportunity to get more bang for the buck. Instead our politicians went on a drunken spending stupor.
A child could do a better job than the idiots we elect.

#9 BobC on 04.09.19 at 5:03 pm

There’s no recovery. What people call a recovery has been bought but not paid for yet.
I saw a graph that shows the annual GDP with the new debt for that year subtracted out as it should be.
The world is in the toilet. I just hope tptb can keep it going for another 20 years. I won’t care after that.

#10 marcus on 04.09.19 at 5:06 pm

Just heard from a little bird that Trudeau recently secured a second citizenship in of all places Malta. Thank you “little bird.” That was VERY interesting if you know anything about Malta. Things are about to get VERY interesting in Canada.

#11 Stan Brooks on 04.09.19 at 5:13 pm

But that’s cool. The system works. These days there is relatively little inflation, historically low interest rates, wage and price stability, no recession and ample credit

The only true words in this statement is .. well, I found none.

#12 Stan Brooks on 04.09.19 at 5:14 pm

expect the historically low rates….

#13 RICK on 04.09.19 at 5:15 pm

Ok, so your argument is that money should not be backed by gold. I disagree; fiat is doomed.

#14 southseacompany on 04.09.19 at 5:16 pm

No depression, but QE had it’s distortions – asset inflation for one. Great for those that held assets, sucks for those that didn’t.

It may have also stimulated all the extremes that we are seeing in the world, left and right.

“Quantitative easing was the father of millennial socialism”, Financial Times
https://www.ft.com/content/cbed81fc-3b56-11e9-9988-28303f70fcff

Seems that those that didn’t hold assets are getting older, bolder and more numerous. Doesn’t bode well.

#15 The Real Mark on 04.09.19 at 5:21 pm

If the government owns 10% of your house, why shouldn’t the government demand 10% of the owner’s imputed rent as its return?

If the house needs improvements, can you go to the government and ask for them to kick in?

If you make improvements, and the government doesn’t contribute, are you entitled to dilute their share? What is the mechanism to determine the value of the improvements made?

Without knowing implementation details, the whole “program” is likely to be tainted by losses and even fraud.

#8 Reality is stark on 04.09.19 at 5:03 pm

Good post. I remember going to a career fair when I was in college in the mid 1990s, and the public sector employers that attended basically were sitting there twiddling their thumbs. None of the kids wanted to work for government or to accept the known low compensation that goes with working for government.

These days, the private sector booths barely can get people interested as the compensation and stability is known to be low in the private sector. And the public sector booths are crammed with huge lineups of people.

Goldbugs

I personally don’t think that the price of gold is going to rise all that much (maybe double or triple at best), but rather, the big surprise will be in the mining shares. The result of deflationary forces driving down the cost of production. XAU was 100 in 1977, as was the Nasdaq index. The Nasdaq index was recently 8000, the XAU (gold miners) index is ~80 today. I reckon that the gold miners could go up 100X by the time this is all through. Which may actually create legitimate non-subprime-credit-fueled buying in Vancouver/Toronto RE. The price setting and dominant landlord families probably will end up being liquidated out of their over-leveraged positions, but I’m not convinced it will end up being a cataclysmic RE crash in nominal terms like the numbers would imply.

#16 Dennis on 04.09.19 at 5:21 pm

Nobody cares what Andrew Scheer mutters.

Except when one of his supporters end up on the news for a mass shooting on Jewish or Muslim observant in their places of worship.

Did you know that Faith Goldy, an extension of Scheer, advocated for genocide and openly collaborated with Andrew Anglin of a white supremacist website?

Serious allegation about Scheer. Support it. – Garth

#17 Stan Brooks on 04.09.19 at 5:23 pm

Ray Dalio says is it wise to keep 5-10 % of your portfolio in gold.

I have never ever been a gold bug but it is interesting how a major asset class is trashed here with ease and little thinking. Rocks, metal licking, … calling names, making fun of people who think differently.

Let’s tone down the rhetoric a little bit, shell we?

I would always prefer a solid gold or silver coin to Poloz’s sh..ty loonie in long run, any time of the day.

Totally inappropriate for average investors. Billionaires may be different. – Garth

#18 Armpit on 04.09.19 at 5:29 pm

Did we have a Budget recently????? Who would have known….

#19 Stan Brooks on 04.09.19 at 5:29 pm

Totally inappropriate for average investors. Billionaires may be different. – Garth

His advice is for the average investors:

https://www.gurufocus.com/news/765448/ray-dalio-put-510-in-gold

He also advocates for a balanced portfolio.

Most people should not own rocks. Period. – Garth

#20 Victoria Real Estate Update on 04.09.19 at 5:34 pm

Canadian mortgage lending standards were loosened dramatically starting after 2000. By 2006-07 Canada’s extreme housing price run-up and massive debt problems mirrored those in the States (first chart).

And that was before emergency rates in 2009.

Now Canada’s housing bubble is one of the biggest the world has seen.

Canada’s bubble problem is so extreme that even Montreal’s housing bubble makes San Francisco’s bubble 2.0 look tiny (fifth chart).

Bubble blowing policy is to blame for Canada’s massive housing bubble and huge debt problems and the only thing policy makers can think of is to make our country’s debt problem worse with even more bubble-blowing policy.

It’s laughable that Canadian policy makers still think we have a “manageable” housing bubble and that constantly changing lending standards will prevent what every housing bubble in the history of the world has inevitably gone through – a major price correction/ economic reset.

With housing bubbles it’s always different until it isn’t.

#21 yorkville renter on 04.09.19 at 5:34 pm

Caine is the greatest folly? That’s a big bar to clear…

#22 Stan Brooks on 04.09.19 at 5:38 pm

I bought in 2004 one ounce gold coin it was worth 600 loonies, now is 1800. 200 % increase.

TSX is up from 9 k to 16 k today, 75 %, if you include dividends: 110 %.

Significant under-performance, I would say.

#23 Shawn Allen on 04.09.19 at 5:45 pm

Where’d the Money Come From

Uber Handyman (that’s a compliment) IHDTC9 challenged me asking:

Where did the money on her (the Public Servant) paycheque come from?

You should be able to answer in one short sentence where you do not require a page worth of explanations to be understood.

So just answer it – and keep it SHORT. The tougher you find it to keep it short – the more reason you have to think twice about your answer.

I can answer with two words, I encourage you to do the same.

*******************************
It’s a tough question and despite reading a ton about money over the years it is a tough topic for me. But I will try. Two words nor a sentence cannot suffice.

The government worker and all workers earn their gross pay by providing a valued service. Money is an intangible construct that the economy has created as a way to facilitate and incent trade and commerce of all kind and to provide value (reward) for goods and services produced. Money is a circulation medium rather than anything that gets created by any one worker or firm. Money, also is not real. It is completely intangible. It is not a real good or service. It merely represents a claim check on real goods and services.

Blacksheep had a good example illustrating that is nonsense to suggest that a private sector worker mowing a lawn is somehow a value add to the economy while the same worker employed by government adds no value. That view does not hold water.

I don’t understand it well enough to explain it in a sentence. But I know that in substance a government worker sells her services for a gross wage and receives only a smaller amount net of the tax she has paid. Just like every other worker.

Any view that only the private sector creates value in the economy is simply nonsense.

#24 Figure it Out on 04.09.19 at 5:47 pm

Anyone who can’t figure out why Garth puts up with the steerage section… This post ought to solve it once and for all.

He enjoys it. He has three to five hornet’s nests, and he kicks them on occasion, for kicks. You know what today’s post will draw… and so does he.

#25 Nicolas on 04.09.19 at 5:50 pm

“I collect businesses and friends, not gold.” – Warren Buffett

#26 Leo Trollstoy on 04.09.19 at 5:55 pm

Yesterday’s blog comments just showed that poor people are dim

#27 Figure it Out on 04.09.19 at 5:58 pm

“Except when one of his supporters end up on the news for a mass shooting on Jewish or Muslim observant in their places of worship.”

So?

You can’t control who supports you. If you’re the right wing party, you get the deplorables. If you’re the left wing party, you get the socialists, and worse.

If I was running for office, I’d want every vote, even the morons, libtards, sex offenders and comsimps. Having to genufluct every time a turd supporter tweeted, or return a contribution from an undesirable? Fug that. So don’t look for me on the ballot.

#28 Leo Trollstoy on 04.09.19 at 6:01 pm

Gold bugs are all poor

Nobody cares what they say

#29 Linda on 04.09.19 at 6:07 pm

Looked to see if there were any properties that were NOT condos for sale in the GTA for $500,000 or less. To my surprise, there are some whose list price falls within the program parameters. Of course, those prices might just be lures intended to spark a bidding war, but none the less, some actual 2 bed 1 bath SFH’s for sale for $500K or less. A quick scan of the property descriptions showed similar wording – ‘fixer upper’; ‘development opportunity’; ‘good project for the handy man’ etc.

A question here: the land transfer tax is on top of the house price, yes? Are those costs part of the $505K borrowing limit or not?

#30 Barb on 04.09.19 at 6:12 pm

“…broke the law by punting JWR and her buddy Jane from the caucus and the party. Shortly after S. Harper did the same to me, MPs passed legislation to prevent a leader from overturning what voters had chosen. Only by a full vote of caucus can a member be skewered. And no vote was held. Shame.”

—————————————————

What’ll this Wrongful Dismissal cost taxpayers?

At least as much as what T2 paid Omar Khadr?

#31 ToonTown Stud on 04.09.19 at 6:17 pm

So just to be clear, the increased RRSP withdrawl limit is already in effect? But the Shared-Equity is not?

Yes. – Garth

#32 Djumbe on 04.09.19 at 6:18 pm

#16 serious allegations against Scheer

https://north99.org/2019/02/19/andrew-scheer-joins-white-nationalist-faith-goldy-hate-group-members-to-endorse-yellow-vests-convoy/

Scheer appeared numerous times on the alt-right network Rebel Media, which has rehired Gavin McInnes, the founder of the hate group Proud Boys. Scheer’s campaign manager was also a co-founder of Rebel Media.

That is the worst piece of ‘reporting’ I have seen in ages. The Alberta convoy was about energy policy, not white supremacy. Sad that you would post this. – Garth

#33 Re-Cowtown on 04.09.19 at 6:18 pm

“Con leader Jason Kenney, a bully at the best of times, is tarnished by having resorted to deceit and dirty tricks to win his leadership. Voters have a heartbreaking choice.” GT
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

I’m shocked…shocked! I tell you to find out that backstabbing political shenanigans broke out in the middle of a backstabbing political leader’s campaign!! Seriously, what should have been expected? Unicorns and lollipops?

If Kenney was willing to knife fight his own guys like that imagine what he’ll do to Horgan and Trudeau. Those two are already quaking in their Birkenstocks and Kenney hasn’t won yet. Kenney may be an SOB and a bully, but he’s our SOB and bully. Much rather have him on the side of Alberta.

I’m sure that Notley is a very nice, and on a personal level, I like her. But her naivete has no place in the street fight that is coming. Notley is Neville Chamberlain but Alberta needs a Churchillian bully to fight the bullies in Victoria and Ottawa.

Turn off the taps and make BC tap-out.

#34 yorkville renter on 04.09.19 at 6:20 pm

#30 – please, grow up

#35 Reximus on 04.09.19 at 6:20 pm

#19 Stan Brooks
_______

nobody in their right mind, including Dalio would recommend ‘holding ‘ gold. Its a waste of capital 0pportunity. but Dalio knows the Chinese government is buying aggressively (he said so yesterday on CNBC) so he really means there may be a short term gain

#36 the ryguy - In cabo on 04.09.19 at 6:24 pm

Ugh..Garth hasn’t deleted a comment of mine in a while, I feel like we are finally getting along. I hate hypocrisy though so I gotta point out the following.

In 2011 when asked if he would be comfortable appointing a muslim, either in your cabinet or as a federal judge, Herman Cain replied “No I will not…”.

https://thinkprogress.org/exclusive-herman-cain-tells-thinkprogress-i-will-not-appoint-a-muslim-in-my-administration-158c8bead223/

Im not sticking up for Herman here, just pointing out the facts. If anyone remembers the Republican debates, I thought his 9-9-9 tax plan was fantastic.

Fine..paint him with the racist brush..although Islam is a religion, not a race..whatever.

Lets not forget a young Hillary calling young blacks in gangs
“super predators that need to brought to heel”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AlAJzdzk0pE

Or lets not forget her effusive praise of former Senator and KKK member Robert Byrd. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RG35QDpxM_o

The current democratic Governor of Virginia Ralph “coonman” Northam was almost forced out of office after it was discovered he either wore blackface in a photo, or a KKK costume.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ralph-northams-yearbook-page-shows-man-in-kkk-costume-and-another-apparently-in-blackface/

Ultimately though Northam stayed in office, as his successor Lt Governor Justin Fairfax, also a Democrat, is accused of sexual assault by 2 different women.
https://nypost.com/2019/04/02/virginia-lt-gov-justin-fairfaxs-sex-assault-accusers-speak-out-it-was-a-huge-betrayal/

Just trying to keep things fair and balanced Garth :)

#37 tccontrarian on 04.09.19 at 6:26 pm

“But not tying money to stuff gives central banks wide powers they could never otherwise employ, like the ability to create credit in times of recession to stimulate demand and turn the economy back on. This is exactly what happened following the 2008-9 financial crisis. With ‘quantitative easing’ the Fed was able to arbitrarily collapse the cost of money (interest rates) while creating funds to buy bonds that allowed banks to increase lending. Many people believe this stopped a recession from becoming a depression.” GT
———–
So, the 64-Trillion-Dollar question is: did they solve the problem or merely kicked the can down the road for others to deal with? I think the latter, but we’ll have to wait and see.

/////////

“Of course, the gold nuts wanted a depression. They call it a ‘reset’. And, remember, they have the gold.” GT

First off, most people who are proponents of having gold re-instated as a monetary metal are actually intelligent, caring people. For you to refer to them as ‘nuts’ is more a reflection of your own bias than anything else. I’d reconsider continued usage.
Secondly, I’ve never ever seen anywhere a Goldbug ‘wanting’ a depression – but just like any other ailment or addiction, treating the problem with the agent that caused it in the first place (fix ‘debt’ with more ‘debt), is insanity!
I can hardly wait to see what you’ll be writing in 2+ years when the $hit hits the fan; when things begin to unravel (again) and the economy takes an even bigger hit than in 2008/9.
//////

“…like the ability to create credit in times of recession to stimulate demand and turn the economy back on.” GT

It’s been documented that for every 1% in credit expansion, GDP increased a fraction thereof (I think 0.3%, but I could be wrong on the exact amount). So, is this really an effective way to ‘stimulate’ the economy??
It works, sure – till it doesn’t – then it falls on its face. We’re at the precipice, I believe.

TCC

#38 Sierts on 04.09.19 at 6:27 pm

Aparently a roman toga had about the same price in gold, as a suit today.
Looks to me, like gold is very conistent in its worth.
Keeping in mind, that there seems to be no currency, that survives more than two or three centuries, some gold should belong into any families coffers.
Just because…

At least my family had a bit of a headstart after each of the many european wars. (even after the 30 years war)

Each generation got teached, that one third land, one third gold and one third paper(bonds, stocks, etc.) would be the best way to survive interesting times.

do i have to mention, that this includes zero debth of any kind?

#39 MF on 04.09.19 at 6:27 pm

#8 Reality is stark on 04.09.19 at 5:03 pm

-This the Livio Di Matteo you are referring to?

https://www.timescolonist.com/opinion/columnists/livio-di-matteo-size-of-government-matters-to-the-economy-1.2328084

From the horse’s mouth: “The evidence suggests that there are important implications for economic growth associated with the size of government. Specifically, there are relatively smaller economic benefits once government grows beyond the 30 to 35 per cent of GDP range.”

–> General Government expenditure as a percentage of GDP for Canada: 20.8 in 2019 (Source: The World Bank). Behind hellholes like Denmark, France, Finland, Norway, Sweden. Above paradises like Iraq and Somalia:

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ne.con.govt.zs

–> Total pubic sector employment in Canada as a proportion of the total workforce: 18.2%. Also below hellholes like France, Norway, Sweden etc.

Source: Forbes

https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2017/07/21/scandinavia-leads-the-world-in-public-sector-employment-infographic/#496b45531820

Conclusion: your post is inaccurate, and sounds more like personal bias, popular rhetoric, or groundless assertion, than anything resembling any “reality”.

MF

#40 Dolce Vita on 04.09.19 at 6:31 pm

Garth & Acolytes.

Read their work (and not Google Search then become a 10 sec. expert from the rubbish that Google tells you):

Milton Friedman (on “money” perception)
Friedrich Hayek
Ludwig von Mises

Their core thinking will explain what the Share Equity Mortgage is in reality and predict its foreseeable doom (as the BC version has become).

That, and other such Keynesian fiscal clones are not the solution, never have been, never will be (nor monetary BoC, Fed interventions). The Keynes core idea just looks good on paper as a lovely chart that even the weak of mind can comprehend.

Hence weak of mind people in Government and BoC, Fed, actually believe the chart and push comes to shove, gerrymander the end of an economic cycle and get it wrong as always (if it were true that type of gerrymandering works, then planned economies ought to work as well, e.g., Communism…but alas, they do not).

These interventions end catastrophically and to the detriment of the average person (housing bubbles created/burst, inflation, recession, depression – all brought to you by the Keynesian “meddlers”).

Your Blog today, admirable in its advice, is confused on Economics but not near as bad as our PM is about how to solve the SNC-Lavalin Scandal.

PS:

Neither of the above 3 would vote NDP (that should appeal to you Garth).

They might consider Liberal as long as they don’t meddle with the economy (thus, goodbye Trudeau).

#41 expat on 04.09.19 at 6:32 pm

Our family has owned gold for hundreds of years.
It is an asset regardless what you may believe. The average gold holder is NOT a gold bug. Only the scammers and idiots are gold bugs thinking gold backed currency is teh only way.

Most people don’t understand it or refuse to. That’s Ok because wealthy families all use gold as a certain percentage of their assets. It can be transferred in a box to the next generation without will, bill, or tax.

Gold backing currencies is long gone and not required. The modern economy to expand cannot be gold backed. There simply isn’t enough gold on the planet to back modern global currencies.

Its part of the core assets that the wealthy use to store value, protect us against government, and is easily passed on.

It’s just sits there and doesn’t do anything for a generation or two then the government turns on its people and gold is the only asset to own.

The myths that all gold holders are gold bugs is BS. Ask any wealthy family how much they have. Of course they will never tell you, but they own it.

Gold cannot change ownership tax-free. It is an asset like all others and upon death is deemed to have been sold. This is a taxable event and your family is engaged in evasion. That is illegal. I would resist blogging about it. – Garth

#42 Zed on 04.09.19 at 6:40 pm

I live off my dividends, pay about 22% average tax rate in QC on $150k in div. I really like not having to pay a higher rate on RRSP withdrawals or pension.

Garth has mentioned numerous times how to reduce your tax load. Deduct RRSP contributions then use that money in lean years like sabbatical or early retirement.

It is possible to pay less than the maximum in Canada, the system is in place, use it.

I give money to charities and receive a tax credit of 50% on money taxed at 22%, very good deal.

#43 Nonplused on 04.09.19 at 6:40 pm

It is a weakness of the Canadian political system that premiers and prime ministers are not elected by a direct vote, so we end up having to vote for both our local MP and the prime minister with the same ballot. But there is a work around, however unlikely. If Alberta sends enough MLA’s to for the government for example, but Kenney doesn’t win his riding, problem solved! The cons will then get to pick a new leader. Unfortunately it isn’t very likely though. It’s sort of like when Notely got elected, nobody was voting for the candidate in their riding, most of whom nobody had heard of.

Ah, gold. Money is still sort of backed by gold, only at a floating exchange rate set in the market. I think it kind of has to be as our need for currency has at this point far outstripped the amount of gold available. A $50 Canadian gold coin right now trades for around $1,776 (Can) so it seems a little impractical to carry gold around anymore. But it is still held by many central banks including the Fed, China, Russia, Germany, etc., so it still has a role in the financial world. I don’t know what the gold price would have to be for money to actually be backed by gold again but I’ve read estimates well over $20,000 and ounce. That just isn’t going to happen. Nor does it need to. Scarcity is what made gold money in the first place and properly applied scarcity can keep the paper money too. The only fear is that your central bank goes crazy and prints too much money, and there are many modern examples where this has happened. But in that event the price of everything goes up, not just gold.

#44 Robert B on 04.09.19 at 6:42 pm

Of course, the gold nuts wanted a depression. They call it a ‘reset’. And, remember, they have the gold.

No gold holders do not want a depression, its just a hedge. You wonder why central banks hold and continue to buy it.
Garth please don’t tell me that Dalio is wrong with his Gold insurance policy. One of the best hedge fund managers out there.

I can smell QE 4 around the corner . Lots of it.
Commodity cycle is coming too.

Our central bank owns no gold. – Garth

#45 Changeemall on 04.09.19 at 6:42 pm

So cringy to read these state loving, keynesian economics praising blogs. Planty of available credit you say? Is that a good thing as Canadians are up to thier eye balls in debt… Isn’t your blog all about the inflated housing market driven by the artificial debt bubble? Oh the irony. It’s so good when the majority are debt sales, what a wonderful thing.

#46 Dolce Vita on 04.09.19 at 6:46 pm

Most people should not own rocks. Period. – Garth

You may want to read this:

https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2011/02/15/131934618/the-island-of-stone-money?t=1554849815143

BETTER YET from the “Horses Mouth”, Friedman:

https://archive.org/stream/IslandOfStoneMoney/island%20of%20stone%20money_djvu.txt

Gold pays nothing and is 100% speculative. Most people should own no assets in that category. I am grateful once again you are not an investment advisor. – Garth

#47 Reximus on 04.09.19 at 6:51 pm

.#22 stan

I work in the precious metals industry (in compliance not trading ) and i guarantee you no one we buy from from the speculator side is happy with their return no matter when they bought. But Enjoy your 1000 buck windfall from your mom’s basement

#48 Timmy on 04.09.19 at 6:53 pm

Trudeau has one thing going for him. Sheer has a lower IQ

#49 Andrew on 04.09.19 at 6:54 pm

You’ll be crawling back to the Austrians if the MMT crowd gets their way.

Buy bitcoin folks! Goodluck!

#50 Tony Warren on 04.09.19 at 6:58 pm

The change in the method to measure inflation, brought about during the Clinton administration, and supported by both sides of the political spectrum had the effect of not describing inflation in meaningful terms.

So, when you say that inflation is held in check, that is true only if you believe that we are now measuring inflation.

I look at the price increases in the commodities we all use as a better guide. Bread, eggs, meat, vegetables, booze, gasoline, the price of automobiles, home maintenance, insurance and the like have far outpaced the inflation rate claimed by the Bank of Canada, the Fed, and well everywhere else on earth that has money controlled by banks and central banks.

Too often we conflate the supply of money, with the creation of debt. This is the cause of the real increase in the things we use, versus the claims put for for inflation by the aforementioned institution.

The purpose of changing the Consumers Price Index to no longer reflect a particular life style was to reduce the cost of social programs by subterfuge. If inflation was measured the same way it was prior to these changes, adjustments of programs like CPP and Old Age Security would be significantly higher than they are now.

The claim is that as things get more expensive, consumers will buy less expensive substitutes is absurd. At some point, everyone is reduced to eating pet food and lawn grass clippings.

#51 Dolce Vita on 04.09.19 at 6:59 pm

Gold pays nothing and is 100% speculative. Most people should own no assets in that category. I am grateful once again you are not an investment advisor. – Garth

As I said, read Friedman (and what he concludes).

You will learn that you have a kindred spirit in Friedman.

To quote you, ‘wanna bet?

#52 Djumbe on 04.09.19 at 7:04 pm

#32 does a CBC opinion piece qualify as journalism?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/opinion/united-we-roll-1.5030419
The convoy was about more than pipelines and Sheer’s failure to draw a line in the sand between legitimate grievances about the oil and gas industry and illegitimate grievances about immigrants, Muslims and minorities will ultimately hamper the party’s ability to reconnect with voters across the country.

#53 young & foolish on 04.09.19 at 7:05 pm

Herman Cain = Bad Idea

However, there is a lot of misunderstanding about money, of how it is now created out of nothing (infinite debt?). Plenty of discussions about an eventual “reset” and about wealth preservation strategies. Gold seems to always come up.

I still own the gold coins given to me by my grandparents years ago around Christmas time, although I don’t really think of them as money.

#54 Doghouse Dweller on 04.09.19 at 7:11 pm

Our central bank owns no gold. – Garth
——————————————-
Who needs gold when you have a printing press ?
Ah! The great Central banks who saved the planet mime. Poloz in his gilded office above the granite and steel fortified but barren vaults of the Bank of Canada.
A central banker with no Gold. He must be the brunt of relentless jokes in Bankerland.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2019/02/04/central-banks-havent-bought-this-much-gold-since-nixon-closed-the-gold-window/#7c781bce3c2d

#55 Bob Dog on 04.09.19 at 7:19 pm

Another great documentary about the financialization of the world economy. Banks were intended to be just a service available to corporations. Now humanity exists to serve the banks.

Quants – The Alchemists of Wall Street

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ed2FWNWwE3I

#56 tccontrarian on 04.09.19 at 7:20 pm

#28 Leo Trollstoy on 04.09.19 at 6:01 pm

Gold bugs are all poor

Nobody cares what they say
************************************
Wrong Troller –

Rick Rule: “Every Billionaire I Know Took Bets Contrary To Conventional Wisdom At The Time That Were Highly Risky”

https://www.kitco.com/ind/Tekoa_Silva/2013-12-23-Rick-Rule-Every-Billionaire-I-Know-Took-Bets-Contrary-To-Conventional-Wisdom-At-The-Time-That-Were-Highly-Risky.html

////////////////////////////////////

I’m not a Billionaire…at least, not yet.
So, I listen to their stories and try to emulate, in my own way. Some of them didn’t get ‘there’ being lucky or being born into it. It takes a different way of thinking and understanding the risk/reward of any position.

Happy to report that I’m now a fractional billionaire only. In due time, I’ll get there… :)

TCC

#57 Dolce Vita on 04.09.19 at 7:21 pm

#48 Timmy

To quote that well water of very summarized knowledge, Google, on Trudeau:

“He then went on to attempt an Engineering Degree at Polytechnique Montréal in 2002. However, he completed one year of the program before dropping out.

In 2004 Trudeau went on to start a Masters degree in Environmental Geography. Like his attempt at an Engineering Degree, he completed one year and then dropped out.”

Like all good Engineering “Christmas Graduates” Trudeau became a Teacher, punctuated by an aborted Masters sojourn in between (a higher IQ is needed for a Masters – research the studies corroborating this on your own).

Both Scheer and Trudeau have BA’s.

Trudeau ALSO has a Bach. of Ed degree (read Christmas Graduate story above –> Teacher).

-I’d say its a draw in the IQ department but give Trudeau +1 on the degrees (-2 on aborted attempts at more intellectually rigorous degrees).

#58 WDL on 04.09.19 at 7:21 pm

“relatively little inflation”….. Garth, what are you smoking? Are you daft?

#59 Re-Cowtown on 04.09.19 at 7:23 pm

One of Jason Kenney’s planks is to call for a re-write of the federal Equalization formula. Kenney was criticized by his opponents for wanting to tear up legislation that he helped draft. On the surface, that looks bad, but dig a bit deeper and it makes sense; here’s why:

When the Equalization legislation was was drafted there was no provision for oil well abandonment liabilities. That environmental cost was not considered in the politics of the day. This resulted in massively over-stated revenues without appropriate offsets for reclamation costs. And these massively over estimated revenues were happily lapped up by the rest of Canada as erroneously large transfer payments.

In our now environmentally enlightened time, the full cycle oil well abandonment costs must be properly accounted for. That means that the formula for transfer payments must be addressed. It is that simple; the rest of Canada realized unearned benefits from improper accounting. In essence Alberta was left with the bill after everyone ate their fill and left the restaurant.

Time to re-work the transfer payment formula so the rest of Canada pays it’s fair share of the activities that generated the transfer payments. Someone explain to me why that is not fair?

#60 Smartalox on 04.09.19 at 7:26 pm

Re: inherited gold

Most people don’t own rocks, but many own jewellery made of gold and other stones (rocks?). Are taxes payable on these upon inheritance? Is there a limit, up to which they are not taxed, and then they are?

Asking for a friend.

#61 Spia on 04.09.19 at 7:26 pm

The argument that fiat money helped get out of the 2008 depression which one could argue was caused by fiat system is a weak one… that said rocks are rocks. Hard to eat in a crisis…

Are we doomed like Japan on the 90s . Our population is getting older, the real estate is coming down, what is left is the market to adjust…

#62 Balmuto on 04.09.19 at 7:27 pm

Holding gold is a wealth preservation strategy for already wealthy people. I wouldn’t try to get rich off of gold, or gold mining stocks. Inflation is tame and deflation isn’t happening. And crypto is a far more practical alternative to fiat. There really isn’t any reason to be excited about gold in 2019.

#63 Adrian on 04.09.19 at 7:33 pm

According to Professor David Graeber, money has alternated between fiat currency and precious metal coinage every five hundred years or so for the last ~5000 years (see “Debt: the First 5000 Years”). We officially went full fiat less than fifty years ago, so the goldbugs might have to wait a while for satisfaction…

I have heard gold called a speculative hedge that does well in times of political uncertainty. Historically, mercenaries demanded payment in gold when they didn’t trust that the ‘king’ they fought for would still be alive at the end of the battle to make good on his debts. Otherwise, most money took the form of personal debts, like keeping a tab. The British government accepted ‘split tally sticks’ for centuries as a legitimate means to pay taxes:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tally_stick
See also:
https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/business-40189959

Finally, #24 Figure it Out nailed it. Garth likes kicking hornet’s nests.

#64 Damian on 04.09.19 at 7:37 pm

Gold is the best performing asset class since Dec 31, 2000. Not sure why Garth hates it so much. Gold Derangement Syndrome?

Also, balanced and diversified is cool if you’ve got 10+ years to recover. B+D would’ve been death of you were 50yo and a Japanese resident in 1990. General point being that there are actually many decades long negative performance examples in all kinds of geographies (including North America) over the past 100 years. There is no such thing as an “average” decade.

#65 Mike on 04.09.19 at 7:44 pm

#10 marcus – Elaborate or move along.

#42 Zed – What percentage of your holdings are CDN vs US vs Global? What percentage stocks vs ETF’s vs Preferreds, etc? I’m 70/30 US/CDN and heavy oil, pipelines, REIT’s and the rest stocks or cash. No bonds.

#66 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.09.19 at 7:50 pm

@#57 Dolce
“Both Scheer and Trudeau have BA’s.”

++++
Yeah but as painfully out of touch as those intellectually and emotionally stunted Leaders are…..

Neither could hold a candle to former BC Premier Christy “I attended the Sorbonne” Clark.
Truth be known
It was revealed later that, Her Christy-ness attended the Sorbonne during a 2 week High school juncket….so technically , she did “attend” the Sorbonne.
She then attended Simon Fraser University and dabbled in Political Science .
During one class she was heard to say,
“Some day I’ll be Prime Minister!”
To which her Professor asked,
” Of what country.”
She never finished university.

But Christy’s Mom was a teacher so that must count for something…..right? right?

#67 Not 1st on 04.09.19 at 7:54 pm

I don’t know about gold but if our monetary policy is do great why are central banks buying up ETFs?

#68 Dolce Vita on 04.09.19 at 7:57 pm

#59 Re-Cowtown

Response from Canada less AB:

We didn’t dig the wells, you did AND forgot to clean up after yourselves.

But if your logic was indeed true, subtract clean-up from equalization payments arising from oil revenue, then they should be diminished by:

21% or less (AB GDP from Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction).

There is a thing called the Federal Canadian System where the “have’s” help out the “have not’s” (a.k.a., Nation Building).

Recall before oil was discovered in AB, its economy was largely agrarian up to the 1950’s (based on the export of wheat, beef, and a few other commodities). They could not export any of that had not the evil “East” built a railroad to them that near bankrupted the Nation.

The evil current equalization money grubbing, rest of Canada helped out AB back then (it became a province in 1905).

I agree with Garth, Kenney is a bully. He would choke off BC from AB crude oil and hopefully create insurrection there to have his way on pipelines (and spite his own economy’s nose).

He is too heavy handed.

Then you have the AB NDP, Notley whom I greatly admire as a person including her Father, has failed at every attempt to get crude oil to the West Coast.

As a native born Albertan, I do not envy the choice Albertan’s will have to make on April 16. But on Equalization Payments from AB and fairness – you forget history.

There is that time immemorial idea called “Quid Pro Quo”.

#69 Bobby Bittman on 04.09.19 at 8:01 pm

Suggesting that the last 10 years of monetary policy is normal is way crazier than thinking it’s a good idea to hold a small percentage of your wealth in gold.

Creating money beyond GDP is theft, not a tool.

#70 young & foolish on 04.09.19 at 8:01 pm

Boy, lots of rude folks on here ….

How about a discussion on the evolution of fiat currencies and of the role central banks have to play? It seems to me much of the confusion about debt/money is centred around this. The fear is about devaluation through printing (and trust in the elites who control the presses). Are we going to get MMT thrust on us? Folks want to know “am I stealthily being pauperised?”

#71 Unhinged Trader on 04.09.19 at 8:05 pm

Imagine being a boomer and hoarding shiny rocks in the hopes of someone surrendering food or tools in exchange for them in a post apocalyptic future.

How exactly are you boomers going to haul around your shiny rocks in the empty husks of ruined cities? Obviously, by the time people are reduced to using shiny rocks in a barter economy, there will be no signs of industrial civilization, refined fuels or any working machinery.

I imagine a big fat boomer and a pull-along wagon filled with gold coins and bars navigating the streets. It would probably be easier just to club the boomer to death and snag his rocks than to barter anyway.

Gold. Bitcoin. Same. – Garth

#72 Dolce Vita on 04.09.19 at 8:16 pm

#66 crowdedelevatorfartz

Too funny.

You know, it’s like a Vegas dice roll where you hope for double snake eyes but you never know what you’re going to get.

You hope for the best and seldom get it.

Life.

Manifest as Government.

Welcome to the Human Race.

The exception being our intrepid Blog author: brains and a conscience – explains why he was underappreciated by Gov (and me at times fomenting insurrection).

#73 Unhinged Trader on 04.09.19 at 8:17 pm

>Gold. Bitcoin. Same. – Garth

Yes they are.

That’s why I’m almost 90% into Ethereum and have been since about 2015. Bitcoin is a relic with little use beyond sheltering and moving money.

I’d urge any innovating investor to look into Ethereum, because this will form the basis of the cash-less economy in 5-10 years time.

Gold. Ethereum. Same. – Garth

#74 Basil Fawlty on 04.09.19 at 8:17 pm

Interesting that gold is the best performing asset class from the year 2000. Yet, even a 5% allocation is too much? This seems counterintuitive.

What I would like to know is why Canada sold our gold, while many Central Banks are buying it by the tonne?

#75 TRON on 04.09.19 at 8:22 pm

I heard from a good source inside the gold market that big money has been moving in quietly. We’ll see if they are right over the next couple of years.

Sounds legit. – Garth

#76 Dolce Vita on 04.09.19 at 8:25 pm

#70 young & foolish

If people here are asking and debating the 2 questions you pose, how is that being rude?

What you posit falls upon its own sword.

#77 Unhinged Trader on 04.09.19 at 8:25 pm

>Interesting that gold is the best performing asset class from the year 2000.

Only if you’re deliberately deceptive or obtuse and ignore dividends and cash payouts, which is why you own common shares in business in the first place, in which case the S&P outperforms gold by 5x over a 50-year horizon.

#78 Mirza on 04.09.19 at 8:26 pm

Garth I am a long long time reader but today you disappointed me or say discriminated me and 1.60 Billion Muslims by saying in last line pray but not to ALLAH . why bring religion in and hurt people. I respect all religions but you don’t. So disappointed me

Reference to Cain. Obviously. – Garth

#79 Christi Neahr on 04.09.19 at 8:27 pm

Hey Garth
The Canadian Mint has to own gold and silver in order to create the numanistic coins. So is the Canadian mint not owned by BoC?
Or are you saying BoC doesn’t own as part of their asset base?
Cheers
Charity

#80 akashic record on 04.09.19 at 8:28 pm

#32 Djumbe

does a CBC opinion piece qualify as journalism?

Depends on the specific article.
At least the authors have a name attached to an opinion piece.

Unlike at North99, “which listed 4 directors: former Trudeau and Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne campaign staffer, and co-founder of a “cannabis business accelerator” company, Taylor Scollon; former consultant for prominent public strategies and communications firm Navigator and digital manager for Wynne Geoff Sharpe; freelance writer and web designer (developing pages for the federal Liberals back in 2015) Tara Mahoney; and doctor Safi Sayeed.”

Sounds like a safe recipe for great “journalism”.

#81 Unhinged Trader on 04.09.19 at 8:31 pm

>Gold. Ethereum. Same. – Garth

Provably wrong.

You’ll have to shed your inner boomer, and dive into the world of smart contracts, decentralized oracles and proof-of-stake mining to understand.

Understand just fine, thanks. – Garth

#82 Kelsey on 04.09.19 at 8:32 pm

Setting aside gold for a moment, how can you believe in Free Markets and at the same time espouse a system where a small group of people sit around and determine the most important price in the entire economy? So it’s bad for governments to interfere in our housing markets, but was great when Central Banks caused the entire mess in the first place by printing money and setting interest rates near zero?

CBs don’t create an economy, but seek to tame it. – Garth

#83 reynolds531 on 04.09.19 at 8:35 pm

I just come here to get away from the carbon tax comment war on Facebook.

#84 not 1st on 04.09.19 at 8:35 pm

#68 Dolce Vita on 04.09.19 at 7:57 pm

—–

Sorry dolce, you don’t know the west at all. Its in a fighting mood so stop with the lecture. Quebec took 100s of Billion in equalization pmts and gave none back in 50 yrs and they still have mercury contaminated sites too.

Sometimes you need a fighter in there warts and all but you wouldn’t know that because you have probably never had a federal govt target your area for destruction like Ab has.

#85 Dolce Vita on 04.09.19 at 8:40 pm

Gold pays nothing and is 100% speculative. -Garth
Gold. Ethereum. Same. – Garth
Gold cannot change ownership tax-free. -Garth
Our central bank owns no gold. – Garth

#1 espressobob Got it right at the outset.

I love your Missionary Zeal Garth. Keep being you.

-Ciao d'[*]Italia e Buonanotte.

*Where miraculously revising GDP numbers upward from prior years is a Gov. antidote to the current GDP malaise.

#86 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.09.19 at 8:44 pm

@#71 Unhinged
” It would probably be easier just to club the boomer to death and snag his rocks than to barter anyway…..”

+++++

Ironically you live up to your “name”.
As do I.
Anywho.
Can we include your Boomer parents when we go “clubbing” on the town?

#87 Smoking Man on 04.09.19 at 8:48 pm

This is why Trump will crush the 2020 election. And T2 joins Wynne as a non party.
People are woke.

Owners Drops the Mike in Congress today.

https://youtu.be/N1H7CL5K4Go

#88 45north on 04.09.19 at 8:53 pm

Victoria Real Estate Update: Now Canada’s housing bubble is one of the biggest the world has seen.

I am struck by Wolf Richter’s chart comparing Vancouver to San Francisco. The run-up of the Vancouver housing market is so extreme that collapse is inevitable. The big players have to know this. Big players like the big banks and CMHC. BC Assessment. The Vancouver real estate firms. I wonder what they say when no one else is listening.

here’s the chart again:

https://wolfstreet.com/2019/03/14/the-most-splendid-housing-bubbles-in-canada-deflate/

#89 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.09.19 at 8:55 pm

@#78 Mirza
“discriminated me and 1.60 Billion Muslims

++++++

You speak for 1.6 billion people and come here for financial advice?
OMG!

Enjoy your statutory Easter holiday in true Canadian fashion.
Finding offence at everything.
Protesting everything.
Demanding everything.
Offering nothing.

#90 Zed on 04.09.19 at 8:58 pm

#65 Mike
15% is in HSH (Horizon c$hedged S&P 500 etf) mer .05%, no distribution, only capital gain/loss when sold
15% is in XIC ( ishares canadian market) mer .05%, has about 5% in REITs
The rest divided between 12 high yielding canadian paying co. No preferred. No individual REITs since distribution is taxed as income- I think that banks shares reflect the value of the overall economy.

I am looking for the after-tax return, maybe not best diversification but it has worked very well for me since i started investing by myself without MF in 2003. I retired 3 years ago at age 51 when i had enought income to meet my needs.

So it took me 15 years of saving about 20% of my after-tax income and reinvesting all dividends to achieve a good living. I still look at the markets everyday! It should be worry-free but i always want to confirm my strategy.

I never had exceptional returns, but I saved and invested my money since day 1. My college classmates are still working and spending all they earn.

#91 Capt. Serious on 04.09.19 at 9:04 pm

#84 not 1st on 04.09.19 at 8:35 pm
Sometimes you need a fighter in there warts and all but you wouldn’t know that because you have probably never had a federal govt target your area for destruction like Ab has.

That’s hilarious man. You elect an NDP government and experience low world oil prices, yet somehow your ills are the from the federal guy in Ottawa. Good one.

#92 BlogDog123 on 04.09.19 at 9:07 pm

re:
@#78 Mirza
“discriminated me and 1.60 Billion Muslims

By now you should realize that Garth “speaks in code” and throws in puns, double-entendres, hidden meanings and various other clever use of language. Try decoding his favorite phrases/words like: tats, thirsty underwear, moisters, etc…

He wasn’t intending offence to religion, just a reference back to H.Cain words written earlier…

#93 Bobby Bittman on 04.09.19 at 9:07 pm

Religion and fiat currencies go hand in hand. How else could you get billions of stooges to have faith in altruism of central bankers.

#94 Ace Goodheart on 04.09.19 at 9:14 pm

So apparently the UK did actually have a lot of good jobs, and quite a few of them were auto manufacturing jobs. Nissan, Ford, Honda, Jaguar Land Rover and Aston Martin all build cars there, just to name a few.

And most of them are now either contemplating leaving, or have already set down their exit strategies.

You see, there is no point in building cars in a single market economy, surrounded by trade barriers. Car manufacturers need to be able to export their products. And pretty soon, it will not be possible to export a new car from the UK, without paying a tariff. The result: Honda has pulled its giant Swindon plant. Nissan looks like it will soon follow suit. 3500 people in Swindon alone will lose their jobs, with another 10,000 jobs lost in suppliers in the area.

THIS is what happens, when a country relies on racist, xenophobic policies to set its foreign agenda.

Remember Adolf Hitler? He was the response to the German customs union, that brought together the many isolated city states that made up what is now modern Germany. Apparently too many non conforming folks also came along with the mix, and populism gave rise to Hitler, and everything he brought with him.

Could Brexit engender the same sort of rise of a populist monster in the UK? Don’t write off the possibility. The UK government is incredibly weak right now, and on the verge of implosion. Brexit is a slow motion train wreck that has been going on for years and looks likely to continue for years more. When it is over, the UK could well be an impoverished, isolated place with many angry, unemployed people who are close to starvation and willing to put their hope in anything.

They are already losing what appears to be their entire auto industry. Likely more industries will follow.

And all to keep out non-white immigrants? In some sort of modern day “save the great race” idiocy that can’t work anyway because you can’t put walls around an economy and expect it to keep functioning.

History repeats…..

#95 akashic record on 04.09.19 at 9:22 pm

China, Russia, India hoarding gold.
These and other countries also started to drop dollar in their trades, they are building up an alternative clearing system.

There is much noise about losing the petrodollar and dedollarization.

Speaking of gold held at central banks, “the gold belongs to the Italians, not to the bankers” was in the news the other day. An other interesting, new concept.

#96 Re-Cowtown on 04.09.19 at 9:29 pm

#68 Dolce Vita on 04.09.19 at 7:57 pm

You’re in a bit of cognitive dissonance there bud. You’re arguments are self-contradictory and make no sense. Alberta has been milked by the East since…. well… forever. Even the history books acknowledge it.

Canadian history books are replete with references to the Hinterland-Metropol policy. This meant that the role of Western Canada (Hinterland) was to supply raw materials and foodstuffs to the East (Metropol). An unsettling reality that echoed the underpinnings of recent movie series “The Hunger Games”.

There was never a “Quid pro quo”. The West’s role was to supply and the East’s role was to consume.

Having said all that, Albertans understand and support the concept of equalization to build the nation. But to do that, everyone needs to scooch over a bit. In todays identity politics driven world it seems that BC, Ottawa and Quebec have done electoral math and think that hogging the couch is a winning strategy. Nation building gets no votes when the game is to pit brother against sister.

And that’s why Alberta needs a bully like Kenney. He’s not afraid to kick their a$$eS off the couch and tell them to get to stop sponging and get a job.

#97 When the Whip Comes Down on 04.09.19 at 9:31 pm

It’s all stacking up against Justin. Can’t do anything right. Can’t wait to see this play out. If he doesn’t resign first there are gonna be some stinging ads by the cons moving up to Election Day.

#98 Kelsey on 04.09.19 at 9:32 pm

“CBs don’t create an economy, but seek to tame it.” – Garth

That’s a nice way to characterize a parasitic banking cabal.

#99 George on 04.09.19 at 9:32 pm

There is no heartbreaking choice in Alberta.

it’s either higher divorce rates higher suicide rates or hope.

Jason Kenney may have done some dirty tricks but he’s not the first politician to do so.

At least he represents an ideology that has the potential to bring prosperity back to Alberta.

I have to respectfully disagree with you Garth on that one.

Alberta can’t afford another term of socialism

Rachel Notleys biggest gaffe was hitching her wagon to Justin Trudeau’s.

#100 Figure it Out on 04.09.19 at 9:35 pm

“you don’t know the west at all. Its in a fighting mood so stop with the lecture. Quebec took 100s of Billion in equalization pmts and gave none back in 50 yrs “

I can’t speak for the whole East (just as you can’t for the West), but you know what? We don’t give a shit. We listened to ten years of “the West wants in” and then we had ten years of a Prime Minister from Calgary. We watched Alberta’s “screw you, you owe us” attitude to BC get them no pipeline, their “screw you, if you don’t say yes, we’ll wait for a President who will” attitude to Keystone XL get no pipe South, and their “screw you, just screw you” attitude to Eastern Canada get nada on THAT pipeline. Oh, gosh, but now that a new guy is in charge, it’s all his fault. As a failed Alberta pol said, “Look in the mirror.”

Sincerely,
The East
and the Further West
and the South

#101 tccontrarian on 04.09.19 at 9:35 pm

Gold. Bitcoin. Same. – Garth
+++++++++

No! Bitcoin. Garth. Same. – Goldbug (almost billionaire)

TCC

#102 Remembrancer on 04.09.19 at 9:43 pm

#71 Unhinged Trader on 04.09.19 at 8:05 pm
Imagine being a boomer and hoarding shiny rocks in the hopes of someone surrendering food or tools in exchange for them in a post apocalyptic future.
————————————-
Not only Boomers with this YA fict post apocalyptic fantasy – hope they are carrying scales and a calibrated set of weights / assay tools too. Better off hoarding AA batteries or copies of “how things work” and vegetable seeds in vacuum sealed packs then heavy rocks that shine…

#103 Mirza on 04.09.19 at 9:49 pm

I came to Canada like every one. we all are immigrants I love Canadian way but i don’t bring religion to joke I respect all human being and their believes I am not complaining but surprise on your way of thinking.

#104 AK on 04.09.19 at 10:02 pm

“The kids can now suck up to $35,000 each from an RSP for a down payment (and must repay it over 15 years or be taxed) plus apply to share their mortgage with Ottawa.”
=====================================
Assuming that they have $35,000 each in a RRSP.

#105 DON on 04.09.19 at 10:10 pm

#66 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.09.19 at 7:50 pm

@#57 Dolce
“Both Scheer and Trudeau have BA’s.”

++++
Yeah but as painfully out of touch as those intellectually and emotionally stunted Leaders are…..

Neither could hold a candle to former BC Premier Christy “I attended the Sorbonne” Clark.
Truth be known
It was revealed later that, Her Christy-ness attended the Sorbonne during a 2 week High school juncket….so technically , she did “attend” the Sorbonne.
She then attended Simon Fraser University and dabbled in Political Science .
During one class she was heard to say,
“Some day I’ll be Prime Minister!”
To which her Professor asked,
” Of what country.”
She never finished university.

But Christy’s Mom was a teacher so that must count for something…..right? right?
******************************

YUP!

FAKE it till you MAKE it!

#106 akashic record on 04.09.19 at 10:14 pm

#103 Mirza on 04.09.19 at 9:49 pm

I came to Canada like every one. we all are immigrants I love Canadian way but i don’t bring religion to joke I respect all human being and their believes I am not complaining but surprise on your way of thinking.

The Canadian way of thinking includes that talking about religion in a less than holy way is OK.

#107 Short Commons on 04.09.19 at 10:18 pm

At this rate food, medicine, alcohol, and other necessities may end up with more longevity as medium of exchange than gold or any fiat money.

https://www.shortcommons.com/2019/04/graph-global-co2-parts-per-million.html

#108 the Jaguar on 04.09.19 at 10:19 pm

The idea of a career politician who finds himself on the losing end of the political landscape when Harper’s Feds got the toss and who washed up on Alberta’s beach declaring himself some kind of long lost cousin to his Alberta kinfolk doesn’t sit well with the Jaguar. I call bullshit. Has he ever had a real job? ( no disrespect to those who step up to pubic service, but generally it happens after a period of doing something else). Wasn’t the issue of ‘transfer payments’ between provinces just put to bed as ‘renewed’ for another term as well?
Pretty sure the current Trans Mountain Pipeline carrying oil from Alberta has a little offshoot pipeline and contract to deliver oil to the state of Washington (Anacortes?) where it is refined for use in things such as airplanes that fly out of Seattle, etc., so Jason K might want to check in with Donald Trump before he makes promises he cannot keep. There are no easy fixes for the current energy malaise, only Faith, Hope, Charity and Hard Work ahead. Good thing Albertans are a gold mine of those attributes. I don’t like one term legacies. I am wary of the policies of the dippers, but the species presents with great variation even in provinces who co-exist side by side. It may come down to something old and ancient….that gut feeling one sometimes has when faced with a choice between the lesser of two evils… While differences may present…..’who can you trust?” For me, it can never be that carpetbagger Kenney. I’ll stick with Grant Notely’s kid. On our knees we are still the best and brightest future of this country. I love the province of Alberta. Amen.

#109 Nonplused on 04.09.19 at 10:23 pm

“Our central bank owns no gold. – Garth”

True. But our central bank has lots of US dollars and the US Fed has gold. If the conspiracy theories are not true and the gold is still there, more of it than anybody. So our central bank doesn’t really have to go about owning it directly. In fact I am not sure why Canada even needs it’s own currency. We’re not even as big as California.

#110 DON on 04.09.19 at 10:29 pm

Wow!

It’s fight club in the comment section tonight.

Re-Cowtown – Kenny is well ummm an … and will have little affect in court. He is in election mode and will say anything to get elected. China bought Canadian crude up until November 2018 as it was on sale. Since it has risen China has stopped. Russia is completing a pipeline to China. And for the first time (Norway) electric calls outpaced gas. So things change.

On the transfer payments I agree to an certain extent. Well we are at it – we may want to chat about Western Canada separating so we can vote before we know the outcome. Hmmm! But anyone from the east coast will naturally be an honorary west coaster.

@Unhinged – Wow…a little graphic tonight. Soon you will be a boomer to – in your own way. Just wait.

#111 Doghouse Dweller on 04.09.19 at 10:41 pm

#103 Mirza
It is not a joke, it is a reference to Cain`s religious beliefs.
It`s because Cain is Southern Baptist and not exactly Muslim friendly.

https://hollowverse.com/herman-cain/

#112 Not 1st on 04.09.19 at 10:45 pm

#100 Figure it Out on 04.09.19 at 9:35 pm
—–

Oh we totally know you don’t give a S. Please put Trudeau back in again. We won’t be using that west wants in slogan again. We have something else in mind.

#113 Robert Ash on 04.09.19 at 10:57 pm

There are several countries on a tear to aquire the worlds supply of Gold, these countries are Russia, China, Turkey, who may be focused on Independence from the USD, as a reserve currency. Venuezula, is transferring 8 MT, of Gold, to pay for Foriegn loans, and liquidity, but the other nations, interested in Gold appear to be India, and other South East Asian countries, who seem to be becoming a Global Force in terms of Integrated Consumer marketplaces. This trend is happening today. In light of the Leveraged position of the US economy, and the Foreign Creditors being the Gold Purchasers, perhaps, many countries, are getting tired of playing catch up to secure USD, and resent the ability of the US economy to lead, and set policy, when the US can simply create more of their Fiat currency. Might be worth monitoring. In my opinion this may be a result of Trade and Tariffs, and potentially the reprecussions, of unilateral trade policies.

#114 Bobby Bittman on 04.09.19 at 11:00 pm

DELETED

#115 AAA on 04.09.19 at 11:12 pm

Don’t worry Garth! Herman Cain is no devotee of sound money, any more than Trump is. He’s being put in the Fed precisely so he can ensure they keep the monetary manipulation going full tilt. So no chance the US will go back to sound finances! There are two ways for a country to get rid of unpayable debt: Default or Print, and we know which way this is going to end…

#116 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.09.19 at 11:18 pm

#217 Penny Henny on 04.09.19 at 4:58 pm
#213 IHCTD9 on 04.09.19 at 3:54 pm
#150 Captain Uppa on 04.09.19 at 6:42 am

Mr. Bezos is worth 152 billion running a 1 trillion dollar company. Median pay for employees is a paltry $28,446. Now of course the mail room guy shouldn’t get paid 152 billion, but surely we can reason a better wage median to meet cost of living and in fact thrive above it.
___

Bezos pays himself about 82K per year.

His entire 152 Billion net worth (ie Amazon stock) divided by his total number employees works out to a great big one time payout of 275.00 each. Then there’s nothing left for the year after that.
//////////////

I think it’s time to change the batteries on your abacus
—————–
Penny Henny,
First, what a stupid handle.
Second,
Salaries and other expenses are netted out against revenues.
The difference is then applied to the owner’s equity.
Therefore, the lower his expenses, the higher his equity.
Given that his revenue are the same.
What I’m saying is, wages don’t come out his pocket.
But you knew that did you not?
And third,
Stop being condescending.

#117 Ronaldo on 04.09.19 at 11:25 pm

#23 Shawn Allen

Any view that only the private sector creates value in the economy is simply nonsense.
——————————————————————
Agree. Here is another view from a city worker who happened to be my BIL. His view was that since he too paid taxes he must in effect be paying his own wages which in his mind would make him self employed. Had a hard time wrapping my head around that one.

#118 Rargary on 04.09.19 at 11:25 pm

#103- Those of us born in Canada are in fact, not immigrants. Or else everyone is an immigrant of the country they were born in! My family has been here since the 1600s. Please explain how that makes me an immigrant.

#119 Ponzius Pilatusd on 04.09.19 at 11:34 pm

Ever since I was a kid I wanted to be like Scrooge Mc. duck.
The picture of him diving into a pool of gold.
Priceless.

#120 n1tro on 04.09.19 at 11:36 pm

#87 Smoking Man on 04.09.19 at 8:48 pm
This is why Trump will crush the 2020 election. And T2 joins Wynne as a non party.
People are woke.

Owners Drops the Mike in Congress today.

https://youtu.be/N1H7CL5K4Go
————–
But LeBron and JayZ told me Orange man was bad!?

#121 Leo Trollstoy on 04.09.19 at 11:41 pm

“I made my fortune investing investing in gold” – said no wealthy person ever

Gold bugs are all poor wage slaves

#122 NoName on 04.09.19 at 11:53 pm

#103 Mirza on 04.09.19 at 9:49 pm
I came to Canada like every one. we all are immigrants I love Canadian way but i don’t bring religion to joke I respect all human being and their believes I am not complaining but surprise on your way of thinking.

Mirza let me brake it to you, Religions are a joke only good thing about it is tax rebate/credit, Schedule 9 and 1 for federal tax and form 428 for provincial tax. And bonus is you can carry some of donation forward.

You should print this and put it on a fridge.

#123 n1tro on 04.09.19 at 11:54 pm

#78 Mirza
“discriminated me and 1.60 Billion Muslims
——
Triggered – check
Victim card – check
Minority – check
Capitalizing Allah as to emphasize importance over other beliefs -check
Misinterpreting what was written – double check

Ok, the world is back to normal again. I was just taken aback by the Owens’ testimony today where a young, black, female didn’t play the victim card as expected by the left.

#124 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.09.19 at 11:59 pm

DELETED

#125 Oilaphant on 04.10.19 at 12:15 am

Voting for Notley or Mandel. Mr. Kenney does not represent my values. Too many of his candidates are just left over Wildrose bozos. Sorry, a mere “re-brand” isn’t enough. Never forget the “United” in UCP means Wildrose. Lots of them. Yuck.

#126 NoName on 04.10.19 at 12:18 am

#95 akashic record on 04.09.19 at 9:22 pm
China, Russia, India hoarding gold.
These and other countries also started to drop dollar in their trades, they are building up an alternative clearing system.

There is much noise about losing the petrodollar and dedollarization.

Speaking of gold held at central banks, “the gold belongs to the Italians, not to the bankers” was in the news the other day. An other interesting, new concept.

funny thig is they just ketchup not enoug gold on the plannet. And just for your info Pope Francis “gold chair” is actually wooden.

Gold reserves, last December. (metric tons)

US: 8407
Germany: 3483
Italy: 2534
France: 2518
Russia: 2184
China: 1904
Switzerland: 1075
Japan: 790
Netherlands: 633
India: 618
Turkey: 506
Taiwan: 437
Portugal: 395
Kazakhstan 362
Saudi: 333
UK: 320
Lebanon: 296
Spain: 291

(IMF)

#127 yorkville renter on 04.10.19 at 12:35 am

#103 – you’re missing the point.

If Cain said he would never hire a Christian, the post would say::
Herman Cain is perhaps Donald Trump’s greatest folly. Pray he isn’t confirmed. But not to Jesus

If Cain said he would never hire a green person, the post would say::
Herman Cain is perhaps Donald Trump’s greatest folly. Pray he isn’t confirmed. But not to Kermit the Frog.

The point is that HC is a moron who is racist.

#128 BigAl (Original) on 04.10.19 at 12:37 am

I read somewhere that archaeologists recently dug up one of the most ancient civilization sites ever found – something like 20,000 years old – somewhere in Iraq. It was so well preserved that they were able to study details about its economy, culture, and politics all three of which were advanced and complex. Do you know what they concluded? They found that way back then, in one of the earliest examples of a complex human society, the merchant class and the political class worked together to exploit everyone else.

And here we are today with the rest of us, the everyday folk arguing and bickering for one side or the other, while we ourselves get only the crumbs from the players on either side: Socialist lefties arguing that the government (political class) can solve everything, and capitalist righties arguing everyone is lazy and give businessmen everything they want and that will solve everything.

I don’t know if divide and conquer here some sort of intentional conspiracy by the elites or not. But it’s been a part of complex societies since day one apparently. And we all love to play our part.

#129 Crazyfox on 04.10.19 at 12:59 am

Philpott can introduce her prepared and sanctioned by JWR speech claiming unfair punt from party politics but it won’t change anything. Nor will a T2 lawsuit. But all the histrionics and hyperbole and innuendo won’t change anything either, just reveal how low people stoop to get their way and hear what they want to hear.

Notley will lose, of course and the bully will win. The only question with Scheer winning is by how much. I am getting past the point of caring for all kind of reasons but chief among them is that I don’t see a way out of this world’s largest systemic threat to humanity. It will matter, the result is never as important as the intensity of effort and moral conduct so it matters. Most everything still matters. Its just that our biggest threat to civilization is not climate change or overpopulation or over pollution and waste or accelerating biodiversity loss, no, these all run close seconds and are interconnected but it is not our chief problem.

Our global problem is a general lack of morality. If we were collectively moralistic not just in ideal but practice, we would see this world and its people face these tremendous challenges head on. But, we don’t. We will deny the truth, deny science, deny what is right in front of us, hear what we want to hear, see what we want to see and call it healthy when in the greater reality its diseased, deaf and blind.

Remind yourselves of this the next time we collectively strike down a tax on pollution cause “everyone else pollutes for free” for example and cheer its demise. This will likely come from a majority gov that gets rid of a carbon tax in the backdrop of the Arctic ocean’s first ice free summer and our partisan behavior will not see a greater contrasted political reaction to a deadly new normal, a haphazard effort on climate change junked for no effort at all. In our own back yard. These are our times. This link:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qo3cznpfIpA

… touches on the seriousness of it. I can’t stress enough just how rapid (and continue to accelerate) changes will be. We are headed for a new climate state that shouldn’t come as a surprise, but will and its bad. Its how doom and gloom end of days begins. If I am unfortunately correct, trust me, there is no one passing out red ribbons or a shiny gold star but if I’m right… B.C. loses for example 30% of its province to forest fires, largess in the last half of the 2020’s, by 2030. We won’t recognize winters and weather in Canada. We could try to prevent this, the tech is here globally now, just no political will, not enough public support, the way I see it not enough morality not just here but world wide to stop it.

In short, call it what you will, Newton’s 3rd law, karma, justice, call it anything but the truth if you desire but this is coming. I look at future systemic risk and all I see in the long game is chaos and destruction. Tremendous population loss, worldwide economic collapse, disorderly retreat from the coastlines and the end to the rule of law, its all I see and its near unstoppable now, the only question left now is when.

AOC’s warning of a climate tipping point of no return in 12 years, she’s 29, she’s green, anyone can make a mistake right? She’s off by 7 years, its when the Arctic experiences its first ice free summer technically. 2022, 2023, cant see multi year Arctic sea ice past 2025.

Few will deny climate change by 2030. Only those who are too damaged upstairs to keep from pooping their pants when they walk, sit and sleep, otherwise denial will be crickets or paid for, money will still influence. Maybe half the world’s population will believe what you just read by 2040. By the end of the 2050’s… I’m hopeful that at least a half a million can survive this. But, y’know, I’m optimistic.

Predicting the next government or recession or war or tech mini boom and winner or loser commodity or high flier, , it just doesn’t mean that much to me anymore. I’ve looked at it from every angle I can and it just keeps coming out the same way. Pick a metaphor. Rune stones, tarots, the same symbols and cards keep coming up every time. I’m looking at most of our children not seeing the end of their natural lifespans and only logic to explain why.

I hope there will be survivors, I believe that, I ‘m hoping this great human experiment isn’t all laid to ruin but there is so, so much that needs to end and cleanse before the leftovers have enough merit to begin again. God help us all.

#130 GRG on 04.10.19 at 1:15 am

“…Voters have a heartbreaking choice.”

Couldn’t be any worse than the heartbreak many families in Alberta have been going through in recent years, as their Province is deliberately marginalized economically and politically for the crime of not voting in enough Federal Liberals.

Premier Notley’s now phantom “social licence” and the raising of taxes in the early stages of a serious regional recession will likely be the NDP’s undoing.

The Premier will almost certainly win her riding, lose the government, and that will pave the way for a “Bob Rae” reprise. Premier Notley’s Provincial riding, Edmonton Strathcona, has the same name Federally. As a rare “pro-pipeline socialist” she’s now an outcast with the rest of the Dippers, Provincially and Federally. No difficulty seeing her recruited by T2 as a Liberal candidate and potential Cabinet material in the next Liberal Federal Government. I heard he was looking for new material.

#131 Smoking Man on 04.10.19 at 1:19 am

Wow, Pirates of Somalia.

Best netfliks movie in a while. True writing is all I’m saying.

No fake feminists in this one. I want to write another book now.

#132 Millmech on 04.10.19 at 1:38 am

#97
No ads needed,he will sink that ship by himself,smart move by the Cons would be to say nothing except “he’s just not ready”.
The image that will pop into Canadians head
1)Playing Mr Dressup in India
2)Doing absolutely nothing about China and their treatment of Canadians wrongfully incarcerated there
3) referring that all Canadian males are incompetent at business and thugs
4) his treatment of women in his cabinet
5) suing Shear for telling lies about SNC Lavalin his latest gaffe
There will be lots more to come with this character,bullet meet foot!

#133 Smoking Man on 04.10.19 at 1:41 am

I’m a true writer. I should give up politics and truth mining., stick to sexual inuendo.

I should write stories about my 30 year old surfing teacher blond who if the timing was right she could send a golf ball into orbit if dropped from eye level on those killer abs and the pushed back..

Me the ball would be like a little dog finding a puffy pillow to take a nap with.

You got to work with what you got.

Who wants another book.?

#134 GRG on 04.10.19 at 2:04 am

“I can’t speak for the whole East (just as you can’t for the West), but you know what? We don’t give a shit. We listened to ten years of “the West wants in” and then we had ten years of a Prime Minister from Calgary. We watched Alberta’s “screw you, you owe us” attitude to BC get them no pipeline, their “screw you, if you don’t say yes, we’ll wait for a President who will” attitude to Keystone XL get no pipe South, and their “screw you, just screw you” attitude to Eastern Canada get nada on THAT pipeline. Oh, gosh, but now that a new guy is in charge, it’s all his fault. As a failed Alberta pol said, “Look in the mirror.”

Sincerely,
The East
and the Further West
and the South”

Yes, I’m sure the (not so further) West has finally come to the realization that a Federal Prime Minister from anywhere other than Quebec is just not acceptable to the majority of Canadians. Forgive them their decade long sin against the Dominion. Things are finally back to normal. One more fresh new face in residence at Sussex Drive turns out to be just another corrupt Quebec politician after all. Imagine our surprise…

#135 Stan Brooks on 04.10.19 at 3:05 am

In most EU countries there is no capital gains tax when inheriting. But there is sales taxes in some countries.

But why would anyone calculate capital gains on a worthless piece of rock?

Oh, I forgot, the ‘capital gains’ are based on worthless depreciating currency as a measure of value that implies that everything goes up in value, while that single gold coin is still a single gold coin, it has not grown or cloned.

Additional incentive for governments to promote inflation and lie about it.

So in that example of a gold maple leaf worth 600 in 2004, 1800 today, with a gain of 200 % while TSX dividends included grew by 110 % we are getting the obvious conclusion that our currency has weakened 3 times in this 15 years while ‘the economy’ is 2/3 or 67 % of that in 2004 despite all the huge credit bubble.

Pretty accurate numbers in my view.

#136 Anon3mouse on 04.10.19 at 3:07 am

My my the left is sure busy fear mongering about the right… hitler this, hitler that.

Has it dawned on anyone that decreasing or eliminating cross border duties does not need to coincide with borders going down with it??

Just a thought…

#137 NoName on 04.10.19 at 3:37 am

this is probably reason why i know everything touch them all (volatges), all the way to 750, and yes dc to.

“electrical bursts appeared to resync brain waves across areas of the noggin important for high-level thinking and memory”

https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/04/brain-jolts-revive-memory-in-elderly-turning-clock-back-four-decades/

#138 Howard on 04.10.19 at 4:24 am

Number of realtors in Toronto now up to 52,000.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/the-market/article-in-a-slowing-toronto-housing-market-realtors-feeling-the-pinch/

Rarely does anyone mention the financial trouble that a lack of sales causes for the 52,000 realtors who are members of the Toronto Real Estate Board.

#139 Westcdn on 04.10.19 at 4:41 am

I read the musings of many as I try to live without choosing sides. Alas, life makes me stand for my beliefs against my perceptions of what is happening. I say perceptions because I only really know my life. Learning what is outside my box is important to me so I listen to other people’s experiences. My greatest sins and failures come from not knowing better – ignorance can be bliss.

Someone wrote his main life goal was to live freely with grace – music to my mind. I choose to fight “superiors”. I often get my face washed on the floor with my chosen fights but I learn, usually about my limitations where I need to improve for the next round. In the last federal election I essentially voted none of the above (Green Party). I thought highly of Mulcair but in my heart I think the NDP are too soft. In this coming Alberta election, I will probably vote for Notley with reservations about fiscal policies and nannies. Kenney is too reactionary for my liking.

Since the end of January my portfolio has flat lined and I am trailing market averages. This happens. Sometimes I lead and other times I trail. It is hard to pick out lousy management from my box and usually too late. I have to work with what they disclose and their actions plus sycophantic shrills. I only see an economic slowdown ahead so I am staying the course while scanning the clouds. Real (net after inflation) interest rates have brought easy money profit to an end for now. There is a very good chance of QE returning to North America if the global economic slowdown continues during 2020. I am getting ready. Now where did I bury that gold coin?

#140 Howard on 04.10.19 at 4:46 am

#100 Figure it Out on 04.09.19 at 9:35 pm
“you don’t know the west at all. Its in a fighting mood so stop with the lecture. Quebec took 100s of Billion in equalization pmts and gave none back in 50 yrs “

I can’t speak for the whole East (just as you can’t for the West), but you know what? We don’t give a shit. We listened to ten years of “the West wants in” and then we had ten years of a Prime Minister from Calgary. We watched Alberta’s “screw you, you owe us” attitude to BC get them no pipeline, their “screw you, if you don’t say yes, we’ll wait for a President who will” attitude to Keystone XL get no pipe South, and their “screw you, just screw you” attitude to Eastern Canada get nada on THAT pipeline. Oh, gosh, but now that a new guy is in charge, it’s all his fault. As a failed Alberta pol said, “Look in the mirror.”

Sincerely,
The East
and the Further West
and the South

———————————————–

A few comments:

– Harper actually built several pipelines and had a minority for half of his time in office

– I’m sure you DO give a shit about your regular welfare cheques coming from Albertans’ pockets

– Alberta has had a premier for the past 4 years who bent over backwards to ingratiate herself to the regressive left and it got her nothing. So now you will get Kenney and, if Trudeau gets turfed in October, there is a good chance for equalization reform.

– a federation cannot work, or last, if the Takers in the federation slap the Contributors in the face while taking their money, and then expect the Contributors to thank them for the privilege of giving them the money

#141 Howard on 04.10.19 at 5:19 am

#68 Dolce Vita on 04.09.19 at 7:57 pm

Recall before oil was discovered in AB, its economy was largely agrarian up to the 1950’s (based on the export of wheat, beef, and a few other commodities). They could not export any of that had not the evil “East” built a railroad to them that near bankrupted the Nation.

————————————–

Gimme a break. Alberta’s population in the 1950s was the sum total of a few bingo halls.

You’re comparing a little federal assistance for a few years back then to 40-50 years of wholesale transfer of wealth from one province to several others?

There’s a difference between temporary equalization assistance to have-nots in a time of difficulty and normalizing that assistance to the extent that it becomes “business as usual” for the receipient province. This is exactly what has happened in Quebec.

And I don’t think Alberta in the 1950s was working to actively sabotage the economies of its provincial benefactors.

#142 NoName on 04.10.19 at 5:42 am

@crazy fox

are you saying future will be like this?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtjGTrVwRr4&t=180s

#143 NoName on 04.10.19 at 6:05 am

interesing read

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1105034/west-ph-sea-china-took-what-is-ours-locsin

#144 Darren Shotz on 04.10.19 at 7:24 am

Roach by nasty roach Trudeau’s web of lies is coming apart. When they stay that rats abandon a sinking ship Trudeau’s lies are the ship and nothing can save him from his own lying hypocrisy. New disclosures show RCMP vetted his accidental trip to meet with the Aga Khan as many as eight months before Trudeau Liberals insisted that Justin had never lied about his Bahamas vacation. Man, I’m so sick.if this guy. The lies are bloated bodies rising to the surface.

https://globalnews.ca/news/5148607/rcmp-planning-trudeau-bahamas-trip/

#145 Tater on 04.10.19 at 8:00 am

#22 Stan Brooks on 04.09.19 at 5:38 pm
I bought in 2004 one ounce gold coin it was worth 600 loonies, now is 1800. 200 % increase.

TSX is up from 9 k to 16 k today, 75 %, if you include dividends: 110 %.

Significant under-performance, I would say.
—————————————————————
If your made up numbers were correct, it would be.

From Jan 1st 2004 to yesterday, the total return on the TSX is 201% with dividends reinvested, as per Bloomberg.

I’d trust my terminal, over some crank who thinks inflation iS 8%.

#146 maxx on 04.10.19 at 8:06 am

@ #7

No truth has ever been better expressed.

I felt the same thing just over a couple of decades ago. Most work environments are like a bunch of kids in a school yard. Maybe some never leave it, given the pervasiveness of stupid childish behaviour.

Anyway, we power-saved our little tushes off too and got the he// out at 47 and 50. Started a business and never looked back.

So much less stressful when you’re in control of your circumstances – even if you’re up late working some nights.

You cannot be in any form of control over your life if you have no savings, never mind debt.

#147 maxx on 04.10.19 at 8:20 am

Is anyone in the governing party actually doing any work at all in managing and taking care of Canada?

All that seems to have happened over the past 3-1/2 years is humongous tax waste, damage to Canada’s international reputation, putting out the fires of endless stupid behaviour and mangling our economy.

October can’t come soon enough.

#148 Trumpocalypse2019 on 04.10.19 at 8:24 am

Crazyfox said:

I look at future systemic risk and all I see in the long game is chaos and destruction. Tremendous population loss, worldwide economic collapse, disorderly retreat from the coastlines and the end to the rule of law, its all I see and its near unstoppable now, the only question left now is when.

——————-

The summer of 2019 will see catastrophic progression towards all of this.

And war.

And political chaos.

PREPARE

#149 Ralf on 04.10.19 at 9:22 am

I wonder on how this “home loan” from the govt will be taxed upon selling, if you have the bad idea to rent at one point your property.
As you have to give some % on the profit on top of the pay-back, I wonder if you would be taxed on the profit for a % that won’t even be in your pockets…

#150 IHCTD9 on 04.10.19 at 9:25 am

#218 Gravy Train on 04.10.19 at 6:30 am
#206 IHCTD9 on 04.09.19 at 2:28 pm

“Ok, I see what you are trying to say, but let’s just keep it simple with a question: Where did the money on [the public servant’s] paycheque come from?”

Let’s keep it even simpler with this question: Will you be paying taxes for the rest of your life for the provision of public goods and services? Answer: Yes! :P
___

Yep, you are correct, but my new hobby is finding ways to pay less – so we’ll see how things shake out by the time I retire.

From the looks of it – there is a giant chunk of the Canadian public who end up paying zero net taxes – but that’s a whole other conversation…

#151 IHCTD9 on 04.10.19 at 9:32 am

#214 Blacksheep on 04.09.19 at 4:12 pm
IHCTD9 # 206

“Where did the money on her (the Public Servant) paycheque come from?”

The argument that because, service # 1) is directly employed by the gov and thus creates no value, doesn’t hold water, as both services are a 100% cost of running a gov and both create equal value (lawn gets mowed) just by different sources of labour.
___

Of course you are correct.

But, I never asked if government workers create value – I asked where the money to pay them came from.

#152 Stan Brooks on 04.10.19 at 9:41 am

#145 Tater on 04.10.19 at 8:00 am
#22 Stan Brooks on 04.09.19 at 5:38 pm
I bought in 2004 one ounce gold coin it was worth 600 loonies, now is 1800. 200 % increase.

TSX is up from 9 k to 16 k today, 75 %, if you include dividends: 110 %.

Significant under-performance, I would say.
—————————————————————
If your made up numbers were correct, it would be.

From Jan 1st 2004 to yesterday, the total return on the TSX is 201% with dividends reinvested, as per Bloomberg.

I’d trust my terminal, over some crank who thinks inflation iS 8%.

Some free education for the incompetent:
The total return is not 201 %. It is 101 % as you subtract the 100 % base. 100 dollars ‘grew’ to 201, not 301.

There is no way a Bloomberg terminal will tell you that a 100 bucks with total grow of 70 % for 15 years + 2 % yearly dividends compounded will be equal to 301 %
or 301 bucks at the end. It is actually 201 bucks for 101 % gain, I was generous quoting 110.

Now back to the grass.

As for the inflation, it is pointless, only an idiot would believe that it is sub 2 %. 8-10 sound right to me.

#153 True North on 04.10.19 at 9:41 am

DELETED

#154 Eks dee Siple on 04.10.19 at 9:42 am

#118 Rargary… well I think what is meant is that the land originally was stolen from the native population. It’s rare that someone can trace their roots to the 1600s. I mean, there are no graves before the late 1700s, and scant publicly-available records of any kind. And many buildings that we think of as built by the pioneers were actually already here before the arrival of the Europeans, like the Yorkville branch library in Toronto, for example. These were ‘mud-flooded’ as you can see the bottom floors have half-doors and half-windows partially buried in the mud. Virtually every farm in Ontario was abandoned during the late 1700s, and nobody knows why. All the major cities in North America between 1800-1870 were largely empty and abandoned. Andrew Carnegie bought up all of these old buildings that were actually built and standing BEFORE the arrival of the Europeans, and re-purposed them into post offices, libraries, town halls, churches, etc… Each one of them was a ‘mud-flooded’ building. History re-written at that point. The same pattern can be observed around the world.

#155 dharma bum on 04.10.19 at 9:49 am

37 Dogman01

Supervisor = Flack Jacket for Executive Leadership.

I was paid decently and had a DB pension, then simply saved – saved – saved, invested and got the hell out.

Supervising\Managing “people” – It add 10 years to your “burnout” point – so it better pay to make up for those years.
——————————————————————

Yes, yes YES!

I love it when people see the way things really are out there, and admit it!

Work sucks.
Supervising and managing workers sucks more.

Freedom doesn’t suck.

#156 Shawn Allen on 04.10.19 at 9:49 am

What is Money?

I should try an easier question like, What is the meaning of life?

But I had the following thought this morning.

Our money is to actual real goods and services as poker chips are to money.

Our money and our poker chips are intrinsically about worthless yet a $100 of poker chips can be exchanged for an actual hundred dollars because the casino says so.

An intrinsically worthless $100 bill can be exchanged for an amount of real goods and services that is controlled by all of us collectively.

The central bank has (arguably) good success in managing overall inflation. But they are trying to manage an overall inflation (erosion in the value of money) that is set by all of us in the economy. And the central bank has very little control over the inflation in individual items like houses and cauliflower. Buyers and sellers set those prices by their actions in the market. Money has value because we all (except Stan and gold bugs) trust that it does.

Money is a universal unit of value. A good book is “Money – The Unauthorized Biography” by Felix Matin Money

#157 Shawn Allen on 04.10.19 at 9:52 am

The book author is Felix Martin…

#158 Shawn Allen on 04.10.19 at 9:56 am

IHCDT(

But, I never asked if government workers create value – I asked where the money to pay them came from.

*****************************************
From the casino via money laundering of Chinese money, of course?

You must first understand, What is money? And when you do, you may be the first of any of us truly to understand.

#159 Howard on 04.10.19 at 9:58 am

#154 Eks dee Siple on 04.10.19 at 9:42 am
#118 Rargary… well I think what is meant is that the land originally was stolen from the native population. It’s rare that someone can trace their roots to the 1600s. I mean, there are no graves before the late 1700s, and scant publicly-available records of any kind. And many buildings that we think of as built by the pioneers were actually already here before the arrival of the Europeans, like the Yorkville branch library in Toronto, for example. These were ‘mud-flooded’ as you can see the bottom floors have half-doors and half-windows partially buried in the mud. Virtually every farm in Ontario was abandoned during the late 1700s, and nobody knows why. All the major cities in North America between 1800-1870 were largely empty and abandoned. Andrew Carnegie bought up all of these old buildings that were actually built and standing BEFORE the arrival of the Europeans, and re-purposed them into post offices, libraries, town halls, churches, etc… Each one of them was a ‘mud-flooded’ building. History re-written at that point. The same pattern can be observed around the world.

—————————————

I honestly can’t tell whether you are being facetious or if you actually believe this nonsense.

#160 Re-Cowtown on 04.10.19 at 9:58 am

#153 Eks dee Siple on 04.10.19 at 9:42 am
#118 Rargary… well I think what is meant is that the land originally was stolen from the native population.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

But how a bout a situation where the natives defeated each other and took the land from neighboring tribes by conquest? Who gets it then?

There was a recent article about the the Lakota Sioux, who took the Black Hills from the Cheyenne in the 1700’s. The Sioux were asked if they were going to return the Black Hills to the Cheyenne. To paraphrase, they said “Forget it; ain’t gonna happen”. And so welcome to the human species.

As a terrestrial species land is important to us all and always has been. Every habitable square inch of the planet has been bought, sold, stolen, fought over, bled for and died for since the beginning of time. Injustices are the fabric of land ownership. Attempting to correct for a solitary past injustice only creates a new injustice.

As Trudeau the Elder said “A government only has the responsibility to be just in it’s own time”.

Too bad T2 never learned that lesson.

#161 IHCTD9 on 04.10.19 at 10:02 am

#23 Shawn Allen on 04.09.19 at 5:45 pm
Where’d the Money Come From

Uber Handyman (that’s a compliment) IHDTC9 challenged me asking:

Where did the money on her (the Public Servant) paycheque come from?

You should be able to answer in one short sentence where you do not require a page worth of explanations to be understood.

So just answer it – and keep it SHORT. The tougher you find it to keep it short – the more reason you have to think twice about your answer.

I can answer with two words, I encourage you to do the same.

*******************************
It’s a tough question and despite reading a ton about money over the years it is a tough topic for me. But I will try. Two words nor a sentence cannot suffice.

The government worker and all workers earn their gross pay by providing a valued service. Money is an intangible construct that the economy has created as a way to facilitate and incent trade and commerce of all kind and to provide value (reward) for goods and services produced. Money is a circulation medium rather than anything that gets created by any one worker or firm. Money, also is not real. It is completely intangible. It is not a real good or service. It merely represents a claim check on real goods and services.

Blacksheep had a good example illustrating that is nonsense to suggest that a private sector worker mowing a lawn is somehow a value add to the economy while the same worker employed by government adds no value. That view does not hold water.

I don’t understand it well enough to explain it in a sentence. But I know that in substance a government worker sells her services for a gross wage and receives only a smaller amount net of the tax she has paid. Just like every other worker.

Any view that only the private sector creates value in the economy is simply nonsense.
____

I’m not asking if a Public Servant creates value – I’m just asking where the money on her paycheque comes from.

Workers want to be paid cash for their work. Doesn’t matter what you call it, or if it’s “real” or not – they still want it anyway. We all do (for good reason). If you try to pay them in “real” “tangible” bananas, they will all quit. We all want cash, end of discussion.

It also does not matter how much she keeps vs what she makes. The origin is the same either way.

You obviously know a lot more than I do about money and investing, so you might be inadvertently delving into the minutia when a simple “from taxes” would have been the correct answer to the original question.

#162 Eks dee Siple on 04.10.19 at 10:04 am

#150 IHCTD9 “…my new hobby is finding ways to pay less…”
It occurred to me a couple of weeks ago that this is causing the problem with the economy on a larger scale. Technology in recent years has made much of the traditional valuable labour obsolete. Not paying for stuff cripples the economy. Isn’t that what we are seeing on a macro-scale? A drop in real prices for most of everything except for the one thing that almost everybody has: a house or two. It’s the only thing that most people have. I used to think that this was a misallocation of capital. But now I am starting to believe, that it is the ONLY capital left in the western world. Actual money itself becoming less valuable for a number of reasons.

In your micro-case, it is your ingenuity causing you to need actual money less. So it becomes less valuable to your life as it is not needed as much. But not circulating those dollars into the economy, will actually kill it, correct?

So maybe your new hobby should be finding ways to increase the velocity of money coming in to your household. Then you wouldn’t care how much things cost, yes? And you would be helping the economy that you are fond of criticizing.

#163 PastThePeak on 04.10.19 at 10:09 am

I am not a “gold bug”. I had never considered holding gold as part of any portfolio – until the recent “Powell Put”. Now I am seriously thinking about it.

The Powell Put wasn’t just the abrupt reversal of monetary policy on interest rates that gave the stock market a boost, but also the end of QT (undoing QE as the Fed always said it wanted to) before it reduced much of the Fed balance sheet. And after that notes from the Fed that it is considering using QE as a general policy tool.

What it means: The Fed going forward will be all about dovish monetary policies. When the economy declines, they will do *whatever it takes* to try and stimulate growth. If it looks like the US is possibly heading towards a recession, interest rates will quickly go to 0, and QE will start immediately. With the debt levels already so high across the board, it will take more QE (money printing) than before.

IMO, there is a high possibility that *all* major economies will be printing more & more money to fund gov’t debt going forward. Japan and Europe haven’t stopped. US has indicated they will do so again. I believe China is effectively doing the same thing to fund their stimulus.

This is unprecedented in our modern (post WW2) economy. What will be the repercussions? I don’t claim to know, but it certainly could lead to currencies – even the world reserve USD – being worth less (basic monetary theory would say this should happen).

In this case, I am starting to think that a small % of gold – as a value preservation hedge against USD depreciation – isn’t to be discounted.

#164 Doghouse Dweller on 04.10.19 at 10:21 am

#128 BigAl (Original)

Ancient Sumer 5 year interest rare 3.8%, short term demand loans %20 .
Debt slaves with clay tablets instead of visa cards !
“plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose”

#165 TurnerNation on 04.10.19 at 10:29 am

Proof in Soviet Kanada house own you! !!
…….

Globe says RBC finds for many, the house owns them

2019-04-10 09:24 ET – In the News

The Globe and Mail reports in its Wednesday edition that there is one thing above all others that our society encourages you to overspend on — houses. The Globe’s Rob Carrick writes that buying more home than you can afford is known as being “house poor.” The conventional, and wrong, thinking is that this is okay. In a recent poll by Royal Bank of Canada, 39 per cent of participants said they are or have been house poor. While 92 per cent said that mental stress is a potential result of being house poor, 47 per cent said it is worth the sacrifice. House poor is defined for this survey as referring to someone who is overextended, spending 30 to 40 per cent of their total income on mortgage payments, property taxes, maintenance and utilities. Among those who do not think home ownership is worth the sacrifice of being house poor is financial planner Kurt Rosentreter. He says that part of what you sacrifice when you are house poor is being able to afford new cars, vacations and home furnishings without resorting to debt. Worse by far is the impact on long-term savings for you and your family. “When you poke them and say, ‘Hey, it’s the RESP [or RRSP] deadline,’ they say, ‘Sorry, Kurt, can’t get to it this year.'”© 2019 Canjex Publishing Ltd. All rights reserved

#166 Tater on 04.10.19 at 10:38 am

#152 Stan Brooks on 04.10.19 at 9:41 am
#145 Tater on 04.10.19 at 8:00 am
#22 Stan Brooks on 04.09.19 at 5:38 pm
I bought in 2004 one ounce gold coin it was worth 600 loonies, now is 1800. 200 % increase.

TSX is up from 9 k to 16 k today, 75 %, if you include dividends: 110 %.

Significant under-performance, I would say.
—————————————————————
If your made up numbers were correct, it would be.

From Jan 1st 2004 to yesterday, the total return on the TSX is 201% with dividends reinvested, as per Bloomberg.

I’d trust my terminal, over some crank who thinks inflation iS 8%.

Some free education for the incompetent:
The total return is not 201 %. It is 101 % as you subtract the 100 % base. 100 dollars ‘grew’ to 201, not 301.

There is no way a Bloomberg terminal will tell you that a 100 bucks with total grow of 70 % for 15 years + 2 % yearly dividends compounded will be equal to 301 %
or 301 bucks at the end. It is actually 201 bucks for 101 % gain, I was generous quoting 110.

Now back to the grass.

As for the inflation, it is pointless, only an idiot would believe that it is sub 2 %. 8-10 sound right to me.
—————————————————————-

Lets do some quick math. I’ll go through it very slowly for you.

Price change for the SP TSX Comp is 99% ((16336/8213)-1) from Jan 2004 to yesterday, about 15.25 years. 1.99^(1/15.25)-1 = 4.6% annual CAGR

Div yield on the TSX is currently about 3%, and that’s a reasonable proxy for history.

4.6%+3% = 7.6% per year, roughly.

(1.076^15.25)-1 = 2.06 or 206%

Some rounding keeps this from hitting the exact number that the terminal spits out. But close enough.

#167 Remembrancer on 04.10.19 at 10:46 am

#151 IHCTD9 on 04.10.19 at 9:32 am
#214 Blacksheep on 04.09.19 at 4:12 pm

FFS what’s the point again? Government employees are paid for by (stupidest euphemism yet) revenue tools, which include, but are not exclusively limited to income taxes. For example, a foreign tourist buys a CN Tower snow globe at YYZ and pays HST before flying away – non-income revenue stream…

Yes, a portion of that government salary is recycled ad nauseam (much like this thread) as said worker returns a portion back to the government through their own income taxes and HST and Carbon tax on the gas they buy, payments to print shops for stupid stickers and stationary changes, whatever. Anyone remitting anything to the government is ultimately paying for government services whether they receive them or not.

Unlike most libertarian wet dreams, we do this for the collective good, though argue incessantly about what that means by region, creed, age, economic status etc etc etc. All of which is messy and tiresome at times but IMHO a damn sight better than everyone responsible for paving/plowing their own 40ft section of road and side walk (or not), and doing their own open heart surgery when needed as two examples…

Finally, the more complex something is, generally the more expensive and error prone it will be – so… everybody submits their T4(s) and pays / is refunded taxes. Given the disaster of the Phoenix pay system which insiders will tell you in part is due to too many special rules existing / not being communicated clearly as much as being an IT project run amok (nothing really special in that) the less special cases the government deals with the better, again just the opining of a fellow blog reader/commenter…

I’ll return you to your thought experiment now…

#168 Remembrancer on 04.10.19 at 11:16 am

#156 Shawn Allen on 04.10.19 at 9:49 am

That’s a Bingo!

Plastic coated paper, pieces of metal embossed with the profile of the emperor, pretty sea shells that are hard to find on the island, all a medium of exchange. A proxy for exchanging work or goods of some value that makes it easier than making change for a cow with 5 chickens… I mean, who even carries around chickens these days?

The one thing I’d add though is that the central bank can use powers to influence the economic environment. For example, if cauliflower is a hot commodity I want to grow some and reap the rewards as well. But I need to borrow to do that – the interest I pay goes into the input costs and impacts what I will charge for cauliflower – if I need to charge more, maybe the market swings and people buy broccoli instead thereby creating a glut in cauliflower which forces a price reduction, ultimately cutting the rewards for being a cauliflower producer (and the price of cauliflower the major commodity, thereby reducing cauliflower inflation).

Or, you could go with Danny DeVitos’ quote from the movie Heist: “Everybody needs money. That’s why they call it money. ” A David Mamet gem…

#169 Sovavia on 04.10.19 at 11:52 am

Gold is a shiny metal, not money.

No matter what the goldbugs believe, money has been based upon taxation since Roman times.

Financial history is the best financial literacy: it should be taught in our high schools.

The last time Canada entered a recession without the US doing so, Diefenbaker won his first election. And then his second one, which is still the largest majority government of our history. The Tories should learn from this.

#170 BillyBob on 04.10.19 at 11:54 am

#56 tccontrarian on 04.09.19 at 7:20 pm
#28 Leo Trollstoy on 04.09.19 at 6:01 pm

Gold bugs are all poor

Nobody cares what they say
************************************
Wrong Troller –

Rick Rule: “Every Billionaire I Know Took Bets Contrary To Conventional Wisdom At The Time That Were Highly Risky”

https://www.kitco.com/ind/Tekoa_Silva/2013-12-23-Rick-Rule-Every-Billionaire-I-Know-Took-Bets-Contrary-To-Conventional-Wisdom-At-The-Time-That-Were-Highly-Risky.html

////////////////////////////////////

I’m not a Billionaire…at least, not yet.
So, I listen to their stories and try to emulate, in my own way. Some of them didn’t get ‘there’ being lucky or being born into it. It takes a different way of thinking and understanding the risk/reward of any position.

Happy to report that I’m now a fractional billionaire only. In due time, I’ll get there… :)

TCC

====================================

Doing everything contrary to instinct and good sense makes for a great Seinfeld plot line, but I think you may find in reality there’s a little more to success than just trying to play Opposite Day.

Still, I invite you to try and get back to all of us how it works out, as it should be highly amusing!

#171 Bill on 04.10.19 at 11:59 am

Haven’t been here in a while.
VERY WELL DONE Garth.
This is why we buy a place in Asia as a backup plan.
Will will keep our house and other properties here…all paid for and serious cash flow thank god for that. I’m fully confident that the Wests gov’s all collapse inside 10….EU is toast too. All of these increasing taxes debt QE ect ect is unsustainable IMHO. Their all NUTS and I just want to chill and not have their problems become mine as we have been SUPER responsible with our $ management.

#172 IHCTD9 on 04.10.19 at 11:59 am

#162 Eks dee Siple on 04.10.19 at 10:04 am

#150 IHCTD9 “…my new hobby is finding ways to pay less…”

It occurred to me a couple of weeks ago that this is causing the problem with the economy on a larger scale. Technology in recent years has made much of the traditional valuable labour obsolete. Not paying for stuff cripples the economy. Isn’t that what we are seeing on a macro-scale? A drop in real prices for most of everything except for the one thing that almost everybody has: a house or two. It’s the only thing that most people have. I used to think that this was a misallocation of capital. But now I am starting to believe, that it is the ONLY capital left in the western world. Actual money itself becoming less valuable for a number of reasons.

In your micro-case, it is your ingenuity causing you to need actual money less. So it becomes less valuable to your life as it is not needed as much. But not circulating those dollars into the economy, will actually kill it, correct?

So maybe your new hobby should be finding ways to increase the velocity of money coming in to your household. Then you wouldn’t care how much things cost, yes? And you would be helping the economy that you are fond of criticizing.

_____

I am less concerned about the cost of things (I happily pay for good quality), and more concerned about paying less tax specifically. I feel the Government takes my earning and blows it of crap like feminism, environmental, indigenous etc.. issues that go nowhere and serve only to burn money.

I say let it burn someone else’s money (who isn’t paying attention or doesn’t care). I would feel the same way no matter what my earning were.

In an around my retirement though, I plan on increasing the velocity of money leaving my wallet. YAMAHA will be coming under heavy full automatic fire, so will either GM or FORD. So it’ll all be going back out again somehow, eventually.

#173 Stan Brooks on 04.10.19 at 12:06 pm

#166 Tater on 04.10.19 at 10:38 am

I priced TSX at 9 k, this is when I bought the coin.

Your estimate of 3 % dividend is incorrect, plus you don’t account for tax on dividends + you assume linear increase which is also incorrect.

#174 millmech on 04.10.19 at 12:15 pm

Gold is great investment, had a co worker try to convince me to put all my portfolio into gold in 2011 after he attended one of those precious metal seminars hosted by a local investment promoter in Vancouver.
As of today his approximate purchase in Canadian dollars is down about $118,000, pretty dismal returns after eight years and that is not including storage fees at his bank either.
My fiat portfolio with the same value that he put into gold has only manage to return roughly $360,000 in the same timeframe for a difference of about $470,000, all in Canadian dollars. But alas it is only in fiat currency, such a shame.

#175 Tater on 04.10.19 at 12:29 pm

#173 Stan Brooks on 04.10.19 at 12:06 pm
#166 Tater on 04.10.19 at 10:38 am

I priced TSX at 9 k, this is when I bought the coin.

Your estimate of 3 % dividend is incorrect, plus you don’t account for tax on dividends + you assume linear increase which is also incorrect.
—————————————————————

So, we’ve gone from you calling me an incompetent who can’t do returns math to nitpicking my assumptions and questioning the standard definitions that are used?

Excellent. Guess we can all agree that you were wrong now.

When returns are calculated with dividends reinvested, the taxes aren’t applied. You can argue that that’s dumb, but it is the standard. And if you don’t know that, maybe we shouldn’t listen to anything else you have to say on the subject.

#176 millmech on 04.10.19 at 12:33 pm

As for real estate, I received a listing for one of the markets I am watching and the price is down over 40% from a couple of years ago. By patiently waiting and watching I have saved $300,000, so far in the price, this was after friends of mine who bought in the uptrend, in this city were telling me that houses would never fall below their price point. My friends can no longer sell without taking a huge loss, they are now locked into their house for probably a decade if this is anything like the last correction.
I will continue to wait for another $100,000 in price point reductions then I will start to shop because the carrying costs will then be about $750-$800/month for a 1000 sq foot,3bdrm,1 bth rancher, buy low sell high it is not that hard.

#177 Blacksheep on 04.10.19 at 12:47 pm

“Of course, the gold nuts wanted a depression. They call it a ‘reset’. And, remember, they have the gold.”
———————————————-
Every contrarian likes to be proven right, but I think very few, actually wanted a depression.

I believe most people that bought Gold/Silver bullion, (maples for me) at the time were scared shitless the system could not keep the game going and that a life’s worth of wealth & work, could vanish in the blink of an eye.

Fast forward 10 years.

We now have open discussions on MMT and that Basic Income will be required. Soft inflation and a Fed willing to do whatever it takes to stave of another recession.

The GFC taught me to not bet against the system. It is resilient and self protecting. It is the sovereign in control. I’ve even watched a panel of economists, publicly discuss the idea of a debt jubilee a while back.

“We’re not in Kansas anymore.”

I currently hold only, 100 silver maples in my safe and it’s not for speculative gains….I believe a little paranoia, is still healthy.

#178 IHCTD9 on 04.10.19 at 1:10 pm

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/cannabis-legalization-data-1.5091788

“The legalization of marijuana in Canada has caused the price of the drug overall to increase by about 17 per cent, but people who are buying it legally are paying about 57 per cent more than black market buyers.”

“…And the most expensive way to buy is in a government-run store, where the average price is $10.73 per gram.”

Let me tell you I am shocked. The government took on selling pot – and the price went through the roof?

No Way!

“Interestingly, 233 Canadians were willing to admit that they were still buying illegal marijuana precisely because the price of legal pot is too much for their liking. Those price-conscious buyers reported being able to find pot as cheap as 5.71 a gram on average.”

A tobacco equivalent to buying illegal pot is getting them on the FNR’s. Save almost 70%. Fill up the tank while you’re there too. The First Nations Reserves have an estimated 70-75% of the ENTIRE Ontario tobacco market.

Guess what else they sell on the FNR’s?

#179 Blacksheep on 04.10.19 at 1:17 pm

IHCTD9 # 161,

“I’m just asking where the money on her paycheque comes from.”
——————————
1) The money to pay for the services of a “Public sector employee” to mow the lawn.

Just like:

2) The money to pay for the services of a “Private sector contractor” to mow the lawn.

Are paid or “come from” government revenue sources, that had been collected in some form, from the general population.

I’m not sure what the relevance of the income source (“money”) is, so I’m respectfully hoping you can tell me..

#180 PoorEngineer on 04.10.19 at 1:26 pm

#78 Mirza on 04.09.19 at 8:26 pm

why bring religion in and hurt people. I respect all religions but you don’t. So disappointed me

Reference to Cain. Obviously. – Garth

————————————————-

Oh God…
Mirza, if you have no sense of humor, or are easily offended, feel free to leave.
You won’t be missed (not because of your religion – for which I couldn’t care less – but for completely missing Garth’s point).
I think your avocado toast is burning…..

Garth,
Ignore the noise. Keep on rocking.

#181 Bill on 04.10.19 at 1:31 pm

I think that this is VERY accurate. Most Govs are on their way to TOAST. You decide
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/politics/trump-agenda-is-officially-dead/

#182 Penny Henny on 04.10.19 at 1:35 pm

#116 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.09.19 at 11:18 pm

Penny Henny,
First, what a stupid handle.
/////

Stupid handle? On the contrary, it is perfectly fitting for this blog.
Why you ask.
First off a ‘penny’ is a form of currency (or was) and this is a financial blog. Check.
Secondly, when I first started coming here, years and years ago, Garth’s constant warning about about an impending housing crash reminded me of Chicken Little.
Third and maybe most importantly ‘Penny’ was my dog’s name.
It fits the theme of this blog perfectly ‘finance’ + ‘housing’ + ‘dogs’

#183 IHCTD9 on 04.10.19 at 1:53 pm

#179 Blacksheep on 04.10.19 at 1:17 pm

I’m not sure what the relevance of the income source (“money”) is, so I’m respectfully hoping you can tell me..
____

Sure, that was actually the question being asked.

“#206 IHCTD9 on 04.09.19 at 2:28 pm

Where did the money on her (the Public Servant) paycheque come from?”

Several folks have jumped in debating and answering questions which I never asked.

I am thus still waiting for a short, concise, direct answer.

I understand debating issues such as what money is and and of what value public employees might be is fun, just don’t confuse it as an answer to #206.

#184 Shawn Allen on 04.10.19 at 2:07 pm

Government workers paid by taxes

So, in substance the private sector trades a portion of the value it creates for a portion of the value created by government workers (The government worker gets most of the deemed value in net cash pay). Is this unfair to the private sector worker? In theory everyone pays what is deemed their fair share. Of course there are arguments about the fair allocation and how wisely the government spends the money.

In form, the government worker is paid from taxes collected.

The retail worker is paid from cash collected from customers. Is this unfair to the customers?

Money circulates. Where does it come from in the first place? Does IHDTC9 personally create any?

What are the implications of government workers being paid through taxes? Does it make the private sector worker superior in some way?

#185 Brett in Calgary on 04.10.19 at 2:16 pm

Well said.
===================================
Howard #141
“There’s a difference between temporary equalization assistance to have-nots in a time of difficulty and normalizing that assistance to the extent that it becomes “business as usual” for the recipient province. This is exactly what has happened in Quebec.

And I don’t think Alberta in the 1950s was working to actively sabotage the economies of its provincial benefactors.”

#186 Blacksheep on 04.10.19 at 2:26 pm

IHCTD9 # 183,

“#179 Blacksheep on 04.10.19 at 1:17 pm

I’m not sure what the relevance of the income source (“money”) is, so I’m respectfully hoping you can tell me..
____
Sure, that was actually the question being asked.

“#206 IHCTD9 on 04.09.19 at 2:28 pm

“Where did the money on her (the Public Servant) paycheque come from?”
——————————-
Forget what every one else has said.

Here was my answer, Public and Private sector services:

“Are paid or “come from” government revenue sources, that had been collected in some form, from the general population”

Is this not correct?

Please don’t repeat the question, I’ve already answered. Agree or disagree and please explain why, if you disagree…

#187 Sold Out on 04.10.19 at 2:43 pm

All you Alberta secessionists may wish to push pause on that plan, unless you identify with the “M” in BDSM…

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/alberta-bitumen-boom-oilsands-election-experts-1.5091759

#188 IHCTD9 on 04.10.19 at 3:25 pm

#186 Blacksheep on 04.10.19 at 2:26 pm

Forget what every one else has said.

Here was my answer, Public and Private sector services:

“Are paid or “come from” government revenue sources, that had been collected in some form, from the general population”

Is this not correct?

Please don’t repeat the question, I’ve already answered. Agree or disagree and please explain why, if you disagree…

____

Correct. I’d add the vast majority from taxation.

#189 IHCTD9 on 04.10.19 at 3:45 pm

#184 Shawn Allen on 04.10.19 at 2:07 pm
Government workers paid by taxes

So, in substance the private sector trades a portion of the value it creates for a portion of the value created by government workers (The government worker gets most of the deemed value in net cash pay). Is this unfair to the private sector worker? In theory everyone pays what is deemed their fair share. Of course there are arguments about the fair allocation and how wisely the government spends the money.

In form, the government worker is paid from taxes collected.

The retail worker is paid from cash collected from customers. Is this unfair to the customers?

Money circulates. Where does it come from in the first place? Does IHDTC9 personally create any?

What are the implications of government workers being paid through taxes? Does it make the private sector worker superior in some way?
____

This whole debate started when a poster said government workers don’t really “pay taxes”. You came sailing in with a debate about what is money/value, as did others. None of this is relevant. But it looks like you have now conceded that yes – government workers are paid by tax money.

I was going to take this another step with another question, but it’s too much trouble.

#190 Blacksheep on 04.10.19 at 3:48 pm

IHCTD9 # 188,

“Correct. I’d add the vast majority from taxation.”
————————–
100% agree..

Is there something wrong with this that I’m missing?

#191 yvrmc on 04.10.19 at 4:16 pm

I always wondered if Henny Penny was related to Chicken Little, I feel better now. Now if I could only figure out what the heck IHCTD9 means . Its as bad as when I’m sitting in traffic
trying to figure out peoples personalized license plates , makes me crazy .

#192 TheDood on 04.10.19 at 4:52 pm

#172 IHCTD9 on 04.10.19 at 11:59 am

#150 IHCTD9 “…my new hobby is finding ways to pay less…”

It occurred to me a couple of weeks ago that this is causing the problem with the economy on a larger scale…………maybe your new hobby should be finding ways to increase the velocity of money coming in to your household. Then you wouldn’t care how much things cost, yes? And you would be helping the economy that you are fond of criticizing.

____________________________________________

Why should IHCTD9 do anything to HELP the economy? IHCTD9 should be concerned with his own finances, to hell with the economy.

I used to think along the same lines – help Canada, buy Canadian, feed our economy…….but you know what? This doesn’t help ME! Example: As a family, we’ve saved tens of thousands on several recent vacations ALONE by choosing to fly with american based airlines out of Seattle as opposed to canadian based airlines out of Vancouver. Screw the economy, help yourself.

#193 Remembrancer on 04.10.19 at 5:23 pm

#191 yvrmc on 04.10.19 at 4:16 pm
I always wondered if Henny Penny was related to Chicken Little, I feel better now. Now if I could only figure out what the heck IHCTD9 means . Its as bad as when I’m sitting in traffic
trying to figure out peoples personalized license plates , makes me crazy .
——————————————————
Its a vintage tractor / bulldozer yvrmc… More a D9 guy myself, unless its possessed by an alien, then fry ’em…

#194 Chaddywack on 04.10.19 at 9:47 pm

Yeah CRA is the worst place to owe money….within hours they can freeze and seize your bank account or garnish your wages…..no need to go to court……just a signature from a team leader in collections.

Pay yourself first (unless it’s CRA).

#195 True North on 04.11.19 at 4:41 am

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#196 True North on 04.11.19 at 9:03 am

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#197 True North on 04.11.19 at 9:40 am

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#198 hmmm on 04.11.19 at 2:32 pm

My understanding is that fiat management inflated stocks and real estate. Is a greater fool in one worse than the other?

#199 True North on 04.12.19 at 12:46 am

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#200 True North on 04.12.19 at 9:29 am

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#201 True North on 04.13.19 at 7:50 am

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