Uppa, uppa

Remember that angst about the inverted yield curve? Suddenly everyone was an expert on the bond market which, like The View, or manbuns, defies human comprehension. What did it mean?

Apparently not what the rabble thought. Short-term rates have tipped above bond yields lots of times. It doesn’t always predict a recession a year later. Like now. Forget it. Not happening.

While the bottomy curve got lots of media attention, the fact it righted itself hasn’t. That’s not news. It’s normal. So the yield on Government of Canada bonds has popped back up along with US Treasuries, signalling sustained strength in the US and global economies (Canada is another story).

Just look at the latest news. The American stock market is within piddling distance of its all-time, heroic record high hit last year. All of that 20% decline last autumn which had posters here committing financial hari-kari is gone. Poof. Markets have rewarded investors with gains of 12-15% over the last 100 days, making fools of those who sold into a storm and went to cash. (How many times do I have to type the same words…)

There’s a US-China trade deal on the table. That Trump would do this was never in doubt. He needs a deal badly to keep markets and his re-election chances aloft. For the same reason he won’t shut the Mexican border – at least for more than a day or two. The economic implications would be extreme. Not going there.

And look at the latest jobs-related stats. The number of people filing for unemployment benefits has dropped to the lowest point since 1969 – when my perfect body was clad in a tie-dyed T, bell-bottoms and rocker boots. This blew economists away. It shows labour conditions are tightening. Employers don’t want to shed workers since replacements are scarce. Six million jobs now go begging, in fact. And this is a recipe for higher wages, which breeds inflation and suggests the Fed may not be finished hiking after all.

So, up she goes. The yields. No more inversion. That recession talk, as a result, is pushed to the back burner.

So what happens now to mortgage rates and housing market? Recall that a week or two ago we were yakking about imminent cuts as the bond market signalled even lower yields were ahead. Well, the factors above (higher equities, trade deals, lotsa jobs, the promise of good corporate earnings) have moved the needle. There may not be an all-out mortgage rate war this spring after all.

However, that doesn’t rule out juicy deals already in the marketplace from some of the aggressive players. Meridian CU in Ontario still has a 1.98% two-year loan on the table. An new online thingy called ‘motusbank’ hit the ground this week with cheapo loans. Cutthroat HSBC has unveiled a fiver at 2.75% for insured borrowers and 3.09% for refis. And TD Bank is the only one of the Big Guys chopping this week, reducing its five-year to 3.29% – about a third of a point less than the others.

Historically, these are all great rates. Remember that inflation has been running at 1.5%, and with the new carbon tax you can count on that ticking a lot higher. So borrowing at sub-3% is a bargain. Why would you cash in investments for a down payment when crazy bankers will lend you buckets of money at a cost barely greater than inflation itself?

But here’s the point: probably won’t last.

The China-US deal alone will push bond yields up. If American job creation remains solid, expect a similar result. And it’s Year Three of the presidential cycle, traditionally a good period for equity investors. This time, with Trump, it’s accelerated, since he’s consistently equated a record stock market with his transcendent divinity and enlightened omnipotence.

So, want cheap money?

Don’t dawdle.

123 comments ↓

#1 Captain Uppa on 04.04.19 at 4:37 pm

Love the title!

It seems things are swinging back and forth all the time. What credence should anyone put in economic predictions, really.

#2 not 1st on 04.04.19 at 4:40 pm

No recession in the US cause trump.

But for Canada, kaboom.

#3 Brian Ripley on 04.04.19 at 4:45 pm

Notice on my CAD Yield Curve Chart, the 10 year less 2 year Bank of Canada Bond spread is 8 beeps from inversion and looks like it is rhyming with the prelude to the 2007-08 waterfall.

http://www.chpc.biz/yield-curve.html

The TSX Real Estate Momentum (Y/Y) plot on the chart also looks like it is in tune.

#4 The Wet One on 04.04.19 at 4:47 pm

Welp, looks like my long awaited condo deal (4 months on market) has finally arrived.

Listed in November, deal came in in April. It’s not what I’d like to sell for, but I need to be rid of this weight, so away it goes.

Good times!

Conditions haven’t been removed yet, so fingers still crossed.

Jeez.

That said, I got the new place for $490K, whereas a comparable, but smaller place is under construction and listed at $669K.

I feel pretty good about myself.

Also, my neighbourhood has a surprising number of $900K properties.

I didn’t know it was that well to do. I figured middle, middle class.

I wonder what new beauties will be built over time as the all the WWII era homes are redeveloped into newer shacks?

Hmmm….

Good times indeed!

#5 Sovavia on 04.04.19 at 4:49 pm

Canada will enter a recession for the first time since the late 1950s without the US also doing so (only a slowdown there).

#6 Andrewski on 04.04.19 at 4:49 pm

Don’t doddle while you doodle.

#7 Sold Out on 04.04.19 at 4:59 pm

I’m getting financial whiplash trying to keep up with the market trends. Probably a good time to go play outside and stay away from media.

#8 David Pylyp on 04.04.19 at 5:18 pm

Interesting times; Nafta threatens not to ratify. Tariffs against steel, lumber and aluminium are helping US be at 100% Capacity.

“Canada’s economy may soon endure something it hasn’t faced in 68 years: A recession without the U.S. in the same boat.” Financial Post

All this creates FUD; Fear Uncertainty and Doubt

#9 Linda on 04.04.19 at 5:23 pm

6 million jobs going begging? Well now, will our shiny new trade deal (as yet unratified) with the USA permit some of our unemployed to fill some of those positions? Sure would help goose the economy.

#10 Cheap on 04.04.19 at 5:32 pm

I don’t get it…

Why would you want cheap money?
To buy RE? Surely not at these inflated prices.
To buy investment securities? With borrowed money?

As low as the rates may be, it’s probably better to stay out of debt at the current moment.

#11 Penny Henny on 04.04.19 at 5:34 pm

Just look at the latest news. The American stock market is within piddling distance of its all-time, heroic record high hit last year. All of that 20% decline last autumn which had posters here committing financial hari-kari is gone.-GT
////////

you’ve jinxed us again, bad job numbers might be out tomorrow

#12 Penny Henny on 04.04.19 at 5:43 pm

Rub a dub dub.

“Does Ontario’s trillium logo look like ‘three men in a hot tub?’ ”

https://www.thestar.com/politics/provincial/2019/04/04/ford-government-to-redesign-ontarios-trillium-logo.html

#13 Orange on 04.04.19 at 5:44 pm

The Orange guys list 5yr fixed as 3.19 and 3yr as 3.09

But what I don’t like is that they restrict you with a collateral mortgage.

https://www.mortgagesmadeeasy.com/22-mortgage-services/106-beware-of-collateral-mortgages

#14 yorkville renter on 04.04.19 at 5:51 pm

Does anyone know who has the cheapest rates on commercial mortgages???

#15 BobC on 04.04.19 at 6:10 pm

#9 Linda
We allow anybody that can fog a mirror. In fact we will help you out with free medical care ( called Medicaid), cash assistance and we’ll educate and feed your kids all for free. Send your money home. Just step on our soil and join the million a year doing just that.

#16 Paul on 04.04.19 at 6:13 pm

Amazing today all those students spontaneously walking out protesting cuts. The teachers must have been shocked.

#17 Yukon Elvis on 04.04.19 at 6:17 pm

The median price of a two-storey home in Kelowna has increased over the last year, while the cost of a bungalow has dropped a smidgen.

The Royal Lepage House Price Survey, which was released Thursday morning, also found the median price of a Kelowna condominium jumped a whopping 13.6 per cent to $435,823 since last year at this time.

Two-storey homes in the Okanagan’s largest city had a median price of $729,602 in the first quarter, which is up 2.2 per cent since last year, while the bungalow cost fell 0.1 per cent to $635,418.

For more on this story, visit Okanagan Edge.

#18 Felix on 04.04.19 at 6:20 pm

Garth, why are you not addressing this crisis for all those self-absorbed low IQ dog owners?

https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2019/04/03/toronto-woman-says-she-was-banned-from-puppy-yoga-for-having-a-bad-vibe.html

#19 AK on 04.04.19 at 6:22 pm

“That recession talk, as a result, is pushed to the back burner.”
=====================================

With the exception of the Dude from Gluskin Sheff. He has been calling for a recession since 2010.

#20 Paul on 04.04.19 at 6:25 pm

#14 yorkville renter on 04.04.19 at 5:51 pm
Does anyone know who has the cheapest rates on commercial mortgages???
————————————————————————————————
If you are a good risk 7% but most banks will only give a 65 to 70 % advance. No C.M.H.C. Here, the last one I was able to arrange took two months and the hoops were brutal.

#21 Bigrider on 04.04.19 at 6:26 pm

Copyright infringement on today’s title Garth.

I am going to stick you with my pitbull lawyers !

#22 Reximus on 04.04.19 at 6:31 pm

and US avg house prices are an inch from their all time high, for what ever that suggests

#23 S.Bby on 04.04.19 at 6:32 pm

Will a mainstream bank count regularly paid investment income (dividends) to me as income towards a mortgage qualification?

#24 PastThePeak on 04.04.19 at 6:33 pm

So data is all over the map. Forecast and prognostications are all over the map.

Economy is very strong says Trump, but Larry Kudlow Trump’s Director of the National Economic Council, called a few days ago for an immediate Fed rate reduction of 50 basis points (just to goose the market for his boss I guess, but also not particularly indicative of a rosy prediction).

Anyone who sells after a 20% correction is an idiot. Not so sure I would say the same after markets get close to the all time high, late in the cycle, after a very quick 20% jump…

#25 Penny Henny on 04.04.19 at 6:35 pm

Garth I am offended by the title of today’s blog “Uppa, uppa”
First and foremost the term ‘uppa, uppa” is known to belong to those of Italian Heritage (say – EYE-tal-lian).
Secondly the term is being misused to suit your own bearishnish of the house market (the peoples of Woodbridge would be disgusted). To expand I say to you that the term “uppa, Uppa, UPPA” is meant to convey that the market is going up, Up, UP!
You Capiche!

#26 Penny Henny on 04.04.19 at 6:37 pm

you cultural appropriator you.
uppa, uppa, disgusting you mangiacake.

#27 Figure it Out on 04.04.19 at 6:48 pm

“Remember that inflation has been running at 1.5%, and with the new carbon tax you can count on that ticking a lot higher.”

Estimated carbon tax revenues are ten basis points of our $2.33 trillion economy. Peanuts, and a one time bump to inflation. Overindebted homeowners should probably be happy for a bit more inflation, if as labourers, they have the bargaining power to demand a raise. You seem to believe they do.

I don’t think Trump needs a China deal nearly as much as the consensus opinion. As long as he’s negotiating, he’s working hard for his base and the undecideds. Were he to sign a deal, he’d have to find some other gimmick. While the US economy is doing OK and China’s is skidding, what’s his motivation?

#28 Figure it Out on 04.04.19 at 6:54 pm

N.B. All you folks who think privacy in real estate transactions is just and good… Here’s why not:

https://twitter.com/_cingraham/status/1113902830534795264

#29 Bobs ur uncle on 04.04.19 at 6:56 pm

“Forget it. Not happening.“

Let’s be honest neither you nor I nor anyone have any effing idea where the market will be in a year. To say otherwise is BS. I mean, a year ago, you were sure the direction of interest rates could only be up!

Not that my saying so will stop you from making these sweeping statements. Why stop now eh?

BUU

Comment was not about the market. Stop foaming. – Garth

#30 Reximus on 04.04.19 at 6:56 pm

#24 that’s kudlow’s job…to call for anything that will juice Trump’s re-election prospects

#31 Deplorable Dude on 04.04.19 at 7:06 pm

Damn…we need some more pipelines in BC….gas shot up 14c today to $1.53 in Nanaimo.

We’ve had the scam Carbon tax on Gas for a while now in BC, so this current rise is all down to a throttled supply apparently.

#32 Bobs ur uncle on 04.04.19 at 7:10 pm

“It doesn’t always predict a recession a year later. Like now. Forget it. Not happening.“

Not foaming at all. It’s just that your commentary would be a lot better here without sweeping statements like this. Cause people actually take what you write seriously, and make financial decisions accordingly. Godlike statements are…not helpful.

I seem to also recall similar statements re: trump and brexit, which were also *not gonna happen*. You don’t have a crystal ball dude.

But flame away…

BUU

Apologizing would have been faster. – Garth

#33 Remembrancer on 04.04.19 at 7:12 pm

#12 Penny Henny on 04.04.19 at 5:43 pm
Rub a dub dub.
————————————————–
The people of Ontario are getting soaked that’s for sure by yet anther Ford vanity project.

The platitudes about how inexpensive this is conveniently are omitting the costs of scrapping and rebranding every piece of Ontario Government stationary, published materials, websites, offices, motor pool vehicle signage etc etc etc.

Cue the mindless nodding and ata boy Doug retweets of first row trained seal ministers of the crown next…

#34 SoggyShorts on 04.04.19 at 7:27 pm

Just look at the latest news. The American stock market is within piddling distance of its all-time, heroic record high hit last year. All of that 20% decline last autumn which had posters here committing financial hari-kari is gone. Poof. Markets have rewarded investors with gains of 12-15% over the last 100 days, making fools of those who sold into a storm and went to cash. (How many times do I have to type the same words…)
*******************************
How many times? Honestly, now that I’ve gone DIY I’d appreciate it if you typed them every time.
I can stay the course, but it’s good to have support.

#35 Neo on 04.04.19 at 7:31 pm

Garth,

So you are confident that the 10 year can get back to above 3% and stay there without the stock market having a fit and crashing again? I don’t think so as the Fed is now dovish. That’s all this V shaped rally has been about and nothing that you just wrote.

#36 expat on 04.04.19 at 7:45 pm

Um evryonen may want ot lsiten to some of the large companies reporting significant slowing of sales….

The business cycle is far overdue for a recession.
The stimulus puke of the central banks is runnign out of steam just read the annual or qurterly reports.

No the sky isn’t falling
Its just a run of the mill slowdown after 10 years of rocking economy.
imho

#37 Lorne on 04.04.19 at 7:51 pm

#17 Yukon Elvis on 04.04.19 at 6:17 pm
The median price of a two-storey home in Kelowna has increased over the last year, while the cost of a bungalow has dropped a smidgen.

The Royal Lepage House Price Survey, which was released Thursday morning, also found the median price of a Kelowna condominium jumped a whopping 13.6 per cent to $435,823 since last year at this time.

Two-storey homes in the Okanagan’s largest city had a median price of $729,602 in the first quarter, which is up 2.2 per cent since last year, while the bungalow cost fell 0.1 per cent to $635,418.
……..
Interesting how the real estate industry always finds the stat that works best for them…if it is “median”, let’s use it….if “average” looks best, let’s use it…..if the “benchmark” frankennumber that nobody, including a real estate agent, can fully explain as it is a made up number, well, let’s use it.

#38 Figure it Out on 04.04.19 at 7:52 pm

“The platitudes about how inexpensive this is conveniently are omitting the costs of scrapping and rebranding every piece of Ontario Government stationary, published materials, websites, offices, motor pool vehicle signage etc etc etc.”

Don’t need to scrap everything. Just print up a label with the new logo/slogan, and paste it on top of the old stock.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deco_Labels

#39 GreaterFool on 04.04.19 at 7:55 pm

Hey Garth, not only the yield curve has inverted but unemployment is also all time low, 2 indicators of a crisis.
Debt is out of control!!!! Money is worthless, you need to be drawing in debt to survive in Canada amd US.

#40 Blacksheep on 04.04.19 at 7:56 pm

“this is a recipe for higher wages, which breeds inflation and suggests the Fed may not be finished hiking after all.”
——————————-
The Fed will hold until forced.

Wage inflation, is exactly what the system needs for the working class to play catch-up to all that debt and quell the rebellion.

#41 Nonplused on 04.04.19 at 8:03 pm

Compare these two campaign slogans:

“Make America Great Again” – Trump 2016

“I promise to stop touching people inappropriately” – Biden 2020

I think we can call the results of the 2020 election now. That means no economy ruining New Green Deal or any other economic proposals a bartender from New York might have.

The US economy is in deep peril, these are very perilous times indeed. But it is a rotation, not a collapse. Retail stores are closing at record rates, but Amazon and Ebay are taking up the slack. In the same way our parents faced the change from lifetime employment to working several jobs and sometimes careers in their day, today’s kid’s are facing the gig economy and no long term jobs. But is this the same thing as economic collapse? One could argue that it might indeed be more efficient and thus increase overall wealth. It’s just not very comfortable. Change never is.

Does anybody remember the Kodak camera, or 35 mm film in general? Look at all the lost jobs! People used to be employed in the dark rooms. Then came the automatic dark room machines but people still had to run them. But now people take far more photos and they don’t even need a camera to do so. The cost per photo has dropped to less than the price of recharging your phone, which you need for other things anyway. So photos are now essentially free. If you are so inclined you can put them on Facebook and all your stalkers can see them for free, whereas before you had to spend a lot of money to put a photo in your house that only you and your burglars would see.

The winds of change have been blowing for a long time. I would say for 10,000 years. But it’s been exponential. It started as a hardly noticeable breeze. Now it is a hurricane.

Folks, 100 years ago being poor meant you couldn’t afford to eat. Now it means you can’t afford to upgrade your iPhone. Capitalism has it’s flaws, it isn’t perfect. But it did us well.

#42 tccontrarian on 04.04.19 at 8:04 pm

“The American stock market is within piddling distance of its all-time, heroic record high hit last year.” GT
—————–

I’ve said this a few times before, but it seems to be ignored; so how many times do I need to repeat myself?

The Russell 2000 is NOWHERE near its 2018 highs, and is a more relevant metric of the markets.
The SP500 gets a lot more attention (as the Dow), because they’re more recognized by Joe Public – but is mostly ‘noise’.
Also, don’t forget that the top 10 holdings constitute 21.3% of the total weighting of the Index.
Ignore this fact at your peril blog-dogs and/or Money managers.

Free advice, I know, but could be worth millions!

TCC

#43 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.04.19 at 8:17 pm

@#31 deplorable dude
“Damn…we need some more pipelines in BC….gas shot up 14c today to $1.53 in Nanaimo.”

++++

Pfft.
Its $1.61.9 in the Lowerbrainland.
Expected to break the all time high of $1.63.9 next week.

Yeah yeah Ponzie.
We should buy a Honda Fit and take Skytrain everywhere….because our sprout eating, tofu loving yoga instructor told us so……

#44 tccontrarian on 04.04.19 at 8:19 pm

In support of my previous point:

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Fund&symb=spy&time=12&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=4%2F4%2F2019&freq=2&compidx=RUT&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=4&x=37&y=9&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=13

TCC

#45 The real Kip (Ret) on 04.04.19 at 8:22 pm

“market is within piddling distance of its all-time, heroic record high hit last year.”

Heroic? Really? When Obama was president the US had a $1-trillion annual deficit. After two years of Donald it is now increased 40% to $1.4-trillion annually with much of it juicing Wall St. Let er rip, uppa she goes!

#46 yorkville renter on 04.04.19 at 8:36 pm

#20 – I’m a good risk, and the loan-to-value is about 30% and cash-flow positive… I’ve got an open mortgage, but its WAY lower than 7%. Guess I’ll stay where I am

#41 – GND in the US wasn’t legislation, it was a statement of direction and it need not ruin an economy.

I dont think funding research into renewables us an issue – spend the $$$ on public Universities to try for patentable tech and let’s get some Science and Engineering Leadership back in Canada.

You’re not supposed to poop where you eat, so why is going green such a bad idea???

#47 yorkville renter on 04.04.19 at 8:38 pm

#28 – That was awesome!

#48 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.04.19 at 8:42 pm

@#97 Pffft (Silent but Deadly)
“point is vast majority of F150 drivers don’t use them for anything other than commuting.”

++++

Not my experience.
The majority of the people I work with arrive at the job sites with truck, vans, etc LOADED with tools, material, whatever.
To actually suggest that they “buy a Honda Fit” or “take Skytrain” is ridiculous.
Anyone that bitches about gas prices while commuting in a Ford F-150 for the mere convenience of driving to work….is an idiot.

Perhaps we should wind the clock back 120 years to the “good old greener days” when horses were the main type of transport and the biggest issue was the metric tons of horsesh!t dumped on the streets daily and the dead horses abandoned by their owners when they dropped.
Nothing like an abandoned horse carcass in 35 Cel July Toronto heat.
Yummy.

#49 Orangatng's Son on 04.04.19 at 9:00 pm

I dunno Maybe someone should look into the oranges of your collusions Believe me believe me

#50 Mike on 04.04.19 at 9:15 pm

Inflation is definitely on the rise, which is why we locked in for 5 at 2.34% a couple of years ago. We increased our payments by 20% and plan to be mortgage free in 10 years.

If that means all you net worth will be in one asset, bad idea. Use the bank’s cheap money and invest your own. Reap the spread. – Garth

#51 Ace Goodheart on 04.04.19 at 9:22 pm

RE: #2 not 1st on 04.04.19 at 4:40 pm

“No recession in the US cause trump.

But for Canada, kaboom.”

Canada is headed for the mother of all recessions unless we manage to get rid of T2 this fall.

These ‘global warming taxes’ are going to crush us.

He’s just getting started. Give a Liberal government a reason to tax the sh*t out of people and watch what they do. He is going to milk this one dry.

Taxes, taxes and more taxes. All to “save the world” (which we all know is the thing Liberals like to do the most).

Read about “global warming” while you freeze to death in one of Canada’s coldest winters ever (and you can’t afford to heat your house anymore because of global warming taxes).

T2 is resilient. When you are voting out a politician, you need something that everyone will buy into. In Ontario, Kathleen Wynne lost her party the election (and basically destroyed the Ontario Liberals) by changing a sex education curriculum.

That was it. It destroyed her. And it wasn’t even anything to get all steamed about. They taught grade fives about there being, what, 20 genders or so? We used to play with frogs. So what?

And yet, that was the thing that sunk her.

Some silly education thing that harmed no one and was not even that important.

We need to figure out a way of sinking T2. This JWR thing is not working. It’s too complicated. No one can understand it. People can’t connect with it. It’s not like “they’re going to teach your toddler about anal sex”. Everyone “got” that (even though it was a lie, they don’t teach that till grade 6).

But trying to get people to buy into the SNC thing is just not working.

Scandals, to sink governments, have to be simple. A child has to be able to understand them.

T2 will emerge unscathed from this, and if Andrew doesn’t hurry up and get himself a personality and a platform, we are going to be stuck with Sir Tax A lot for another four years.

Post edited. – Garth

#52 Doug in London on 04.04.19 at 9:31 pm

Markets have rewarded investors with gains of 12-15% over the last 100 days, making fools of those who sold into a storm and went to cash.
———————————————————–
Yes, and remember all the comments here about how the stock markets would keep going down in December when stocks were on sale? That was a sure sign to buy for anyone actually paying attention. Rumour has it some people panicked and sold their stocks back then. I wonder, why didn’t they wait until now so they would get a better price?

#53 Rargary on 04.04.19 at 9:43 pm

What about the Alberta election, Garth? What a debate tonight… Notley overbashes Kenney, Kenney’s ridden with scandal and bigotry, Khan was robotic but Mandel was the only sound one up there!

Jason was so cute when he was a newbie MP. Harperville changed all that. – Garth

#54 Ivan the Moderate on 04.04.19 at 9:53 pm

https://www.blogto.com/real-estate-toronto/2019/04/new-map-charts-gta-home-prices-go-station/

#55 CROOKED JASON KENNEY - LOCK HIM UP!! on 04.04.19 at 10:04 pm

Holy crap Alberta!

After this debate disaster, if you vote for this crooked moron, you deserve to be thrown out of Canada for good.

What a sh*t show – this Kenney is a completely unqualified loser!!!

#56 Out Of Work CEO, Will Travel on 04.04.19 at 10:05 pm

It was Senior’s 10% off Mani/Pedi at the Nail Salon in Oro Valley (ultra wealthy hood north of Tucson, AZ) and I noticed the sign over the cash: NO DEBIt or CREDIt CARDS we only accept cash or cheques. Well there ya go Fintech has not reached the hoity toity spas of Tucson? The lady next to me screamed to the whole salon that: “Tucson is a seller’s market”. She was in the biz. 1969 I bought these “hippie jeans” and lordie I looked very 69. Really getting a mortgage for under 3.5% is outrageous. Kelowna is a small town in the interior of B.C. where condos are going for over 400,000 and single story average is selling for over $700,00 this in a town where there are scant jobs available.

#57 DON on 04.04.19 at 10:17 pm

Signs Signs Everywhere Signs.

Four signs in the last week on one corner in my neighbourhood.

We’ll see how this goes.

#58 Nonplused on 04.04.19 at 10:20 pm

#46 yorkville renter

The Green New Deal is a lot more than just funding research into renewables. It’s about creating a totally different economy in less than 12 years. It’s the sort of thing that is more like a grade 3 student drawing a picture of a rocket and calling it a plan for a manned mission to mars. It is ridiculous from the first letter to the last.

Half of it can’t even be defined. For example, what exactly is “free education”? Does that mean “free tuition”, or does it include living expenses? Which educations are covered? Does it include gender studies or is it limited to useful things like STEM and the trades? And what about the people who either don’t want to go to college or don’t have the ability? What sort of freebies do they get to compensate them for all the handouts everyone else is getting? If “free education” includes living expenses, how many “free” years can you get before they cut you off? Can you go to college for your whole life?

And what, exactly, is “green energy”? Bird killing windmills? Land destroying solar panels? Forest flooding dams? There is no free lunch in this debate. The term “green energy” cannot be defined. “Renewable energy” can’t even be defined because the solar panels and windmills only last so long (about 20 years) and you have to burn a heck of a lot of carbon fuels to make them.

#59 Shawn Allen on 04.04.19 at 10:29 pm

America likes cash?

#56 Out Of Work CEO, Will Travel on 04.04.19 at 10:05 pm said:

It was Senior’s 10% off Mani/Pedi at the Nail Salon in Oro Valley (ultra wealthy hood north of Tucson, AZ) and I noticed the sign over the cash: NO DEBIt or CREDIt CARDS we only accept cash or cheques. Well there ya go Fintech has not reached the hoity toity spas of Tucson?

**********************************
Well, America has long lagged the world in adopting banking technology partly due to its fragmented banking system.

They seem to have a different system also where there are many undocumented immigrants working. (That would be rare in Canada). Cash may be needed for paying undocumented workers.

Paper cash will eventually be obsolete but America will hold out longer.

#60 mike from mtl on 04.04.19 at 10:31 pm

#52 Doug in London on 04.04.19 at 9:31 pm

Yes, and remember all the comments here about how the stock markets would keep going down in December when stocks were on sale?

/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Totally, added nearly 20k in Oct and Nov, unfortunately didn’t exactly pick the bottom but great nevertheless.

Canadian preferreds still garbage though, thought I was being smart keeping them, raising rates and all; learned my lesson. Should have dumped them then and there.

#61 -=jwk=- on 04.04.19 at 10:48 pm

That Trump would do this was never in doubt. He needs a deal badly to keep markets and his re-election chances aloft. For the same reason he won’t shut the Mexican border – at least for more than a day or two. The economic implications would be extreme. Not going there.

There are still peope out there that think Trump does some sort of pre-planning, or strategic thinking. I am surprised Garth is one of them though.

#62 Ralf on 04.04.19 at 11:03 pm

I don’t get it…
Event with those cheap rates, why would you advise on borrowing more instead of putting more down payment, especially if someone has already maxed rrsp and tfsa.. depending of the investment of course, you would be taxed on your investments at your marginal rate, for an uncertain outcome on top of it VS paying certain interest…

#63 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.04.19 at 11:05 pm

#81 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.04.19 at 8:09 am
@#67 Ponzie Plot
“You can fight back.
Trade in your F-150 for a Fit.”

****
Eco-warriors to the rescue …Hurray!
More uninformed gibbering from the eco warrior.
Pray tell ponzie.
How does a tradesman with a truck full of material stuff all their tools, material and a 6ft ladder into a Honda Fit?
Oh, right.
We’ll all just take the Skytrain.
Yeesh.
———
Fartzie,
Not talking about trades people.
It’s about the guy or girl driving to work in a tank alone.
And then bitching about gas prices.
By the way, I had a guy pressure washing my house.
He had an older VW Golf.
He had 2 ladders on top and had the back seats ripped out for his other equipment.
Genius, if you asked me.
I gave him a generous tip.

#64 DON on 04.04.19 at 11:10 pm

#31 Deplorable Dude on 04.04.19 at 7:06 pm

Damn…we need some more pipelines in BC….gas shot up 14c today to $1.53 in Nanaimo.

We’ve had the scam Carbon tax on Gas for a while now in BC, so this current rise is all down to a throttled supply apparently.
*************

Wow! BC gets their gas from Washington state refineries and some from our scaled down production in the Lower Mainland. The Carbon Tax increase was a penny and the oil companies boosted the annual summer rates another 10 cents (Approx). Setting up refineries is the answer. Good jobs. Give the people cheap gas and maybe there will be the will to start new (safer pipelines).

#65 Robert Ash on 04.04.19 at 11:25 pm

Rather, the themes that provide warning signals in every boom/bust are the general ones: that excessive optimism is a dangerous thing; that risk aversion is an essential ingredient for the market to be safe; and that overly generous capital markets ultimately lead to unwise financing, and thus to danger for participants. Howard Marks…Cycles

#66 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.04.19 at 11:31 pm

#41 Nonplused on 04.04.19 at 8:03 pm
Folks, 100 years ago being poor meant you couldn’t afford to eat. Now it means you can’t afford to upgrade your iPhone. Capitalism has it’s flaws, it isn’t perfect. But it did us well.
———-
About 100 years ago, we had the roaring twenties.
No shortage of food, people dancing in the street.
But then came the stock market crash and the deep depression.
The New Deal not Capitalism saved the day.

#67 Shots across the bow on 04.04.19 at 11:37 pm

DELETED

#68 Jon on 04.04.19 at 11:40 pm

I went to bank yesterday I rarely do to wire a family member out of Canada some emergency cash. The bank was all over me trying to sell mortgages refinance etc. Never seen it like that but they were pushing hard.

#69 Smoking Man on 04.05.19 at 12:27 am

Soros about to toss T2 overboard. Can anyone blame him.
I’m surprised Shlong Zumanga has not fired Soros yet

Freeland is their best chance to totally screw Canada forever.. I’m betting with Soros on USDCAD.

Mad Max the vote split insurance policy hasent got off the ground.

Shits going to get real interesting in Canadian politics.

Got to stay more sobar to trully enjoy the show.

#70 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.05.19 at 1:35 am

@#49 Orangatng’s Son
“I dunno Maybe someone should look into the oranges of your collusions Believe me believe me”

******
Mmmmm Hmmmm
Well.
That made about as much sense as……
A thirsty drunken newt with Un-apposeable thumbs and a twist off beer bottle cap ????

Felix?
Some help please…….

#71 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.05.19 at 1:43 am

@#55 What a Loser
“this Kenney is a completely unqualified loser!!!’
++++

Well, apparently “Orange Crush” Alberta gets to experience what the rest of Canada’s voters have been suffering through for the last 3.5 years…….

no real choices at the polls…..

Sux to be Canucks

Chrystia Freeland for President.

#72 NoName on 04.05.19 at 2:07 am

Those two covers probably than originals.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a0QTulg9Uq4

and this one

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q-t3FXjHfsU

#73 Shiny Pony on 04.05.19 at 2:26 am

#51 Ace, America and China will boom. Canada is already in a deep recession. We’re into what Poloz and Moroneau call “a time of stimulus”. They got it backwards when it comes to the nation because Trudeau should have built a surplus to pay for the recession. Instead Trudeau spent heavily in the good times and now spends more , leaving the future looking like a black hole. Argue that Trudeau wanted to solidify his base with grandiose gestures and you’ll be right as it pertains to Trudeau, but dead wrong when it comes to Canada.

Trudeau is stuck in the past, like a stoner whose ability to think is debilitated by a marijuana addiction. Every doper in the world will tell you that, you don’t make plans when sucking on a pipe. Justin is not Canada’s brightest penny, he’s proved that.

Trump got it real got. He stood his ground like an adult and didn’t start calling people Nazis like Trudeau and Butts did. Trump stayed cool, like I remember doing when the kids were acting out. Trump was always the parent in the room. Now look, he’s going to do the biggest trade deal in the history of the world. One which bury the Globalists.

Canadian stocks are pricing Trudeau out. The market is forward looking. Buy when you have money. Buy incrementally using the five pillars strategy. Today it’s utilities, tomorrow banks, it’s never certain, but if you’re spread evenly across the board you gain capital and collect dividends. My call will strike you odd, but as Trudeaus fake persona hits new lows, and the CBV says you are look at the abyss, remember why Maple stocks will gain value. Because Trudeau is going . And once Trudeau is gone we’ll see a melt up of stock values like we’ve never seen before because the international money that has fled under Trudeau will come flooding back, raising equities and juicing the $C dollar back to par.

#74 NoName on 04.05.19 at 2:51 am

interesting read

https://securityintelligence.com/preparing-for-the-unpredictable-security-in-a-new-world-of-mobile-malware/

#75 NoName on 04.05.19 at 3:01 am

Interesting read

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-04/dalio-sounds-new-alarm-on-capitalist-flaws-warns-of-revolution

#76 Under the radar on 04.05.19 at 5:59 am

50 -paying down your mortgage using cheap money is a solid strategy especially if that is your primary residence. Also your age and working years is a factor. Your worst outcome is your mortgage free sooner . Not as sexy as using money in the market but having zero debt and a home which is paid for……..priceless.

The emotionalism of that strategy often blinds people to the real goal, which is financial security. That takes a big pot of money, not only a paid-off home. You can always lease accommodation. You cannot rent income. – Garth

#77 Captain Uppa on 04.05.19 at 6:30 am

>>If that means all you net worth will be in one asset, bad idea. Use the bank’s cheap money and invest your own. Reap the spread. – Garth>>

I have thinking a lot about this as you have repeated that mantra time and again.

I am going to be up-sizing soon and I have enough equity to go over 20%, but I think I’ll just do the 20% and invest the rest into my 60/40.

According to the Rule of 90, I’m 135K too much into RE, I plan on cutting that down with the next move.

#78 NoName on 04.05.19 at 6:50 am

#63 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.04.19 at 11:05 pm
#81 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.04.19 at 8:09 am
@#67 Ponzie Plot
“You can fight back.
Trade in your F-150 for a Fit.”

****
Eco-warriors to the rescue …Hurray!
More uninformed gibbering from the eco warrior.
Pray tell ponzie.
How does a tradesman with a truck full of material stuff all their tools, material and a 6ft ladder into a Honda Fit?
Oh, right.
We’ll all just take the Skytrain.
Yeesh.
———
Fartzie,
Not talking about trades people.
It’s about the guy or girl driving to work in a tank alone.
And then bitching about gas prices.

By the way, I had a guy pressure washing my house.
He had an older VW Golf.
He had 2 ladders on top and had the back seats ripped out for his other equipment.
Genius, if you asked me.
I gave him a generous tip.

@pilatus ponzius

Skipped on Metamucil last week? Was that golf diesel to?

#79 MF on 04.05.19 at 7:02 am

#58 Nonplused on 04.04.19 at 10:20 pm

Great comment, and I agree fully.

“It’s the sort of thing that is more like a grade 3 student drawing a picture of a rocket and calling it a plan for a manned mission to mars. It is ridiculous from the first letter to the last.”

-Ouch lol

MF

#80 yorkville renter on 04.05.19 at 7:59 am

#79 – maybe, but it has succeeded in bringing a conversation forward… better to try to fix and bolster the idea then dismiss it out of hand. If income inequality and financial insecurity worsens, everyone’s quality of life will suffer (not counting climate).

again, you dont poop where you eat so there’s nothing wrong with cleaning up the environment

#81 Mike on 04.05.19 at 8:13 am

” like manbuns, defies human comprehension. ”

LOL, LOL !!

#82 Figure it Out on 04.05.19 at 8:14 am

“The Green New Deal is a lot more than just funding research into renewables. It’s about creating a totally different economy in less than 12 years. It’s the sort of thing that is more like a grade 3 student drawing a picture of a rocket and calling it a plan for a manned mission to mars. “

And? I haven’t actually read the GND, but the US economy was completely remade for WWII, then remade again for demobilization. Kennedy aimed for the moon in a decade, and Americans beat the clock. Computerization in the 1990s completely remade manufacturing and commerce.

There are plenty of examples from other times and places. But always remember, the first step to failure is declaring the goal impossible. What a sclerotic society we live in! Evolution or revolution — and I’m hoping for the former.

#83 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.05.19 at 8:22 am

@#63 Ponzie Pilot
“By the way, I had a guy pressure washing my house.
He had an older VW Golf.
He had 2 ladders on top and had the back seats ripped out for his other equipment.
Genius, if you asked me.
I gave him a generous tip.”
++++

Poor ponzie
Side walks around the hacienda a little slippery and green were they?
Needed an “entrepreneur” as it were to clean the place up for Spring?
You did, of course make sure he had a “Work Safe” WCB number for his business yes?
Paid up and in good standing with WCB?
A reputable business owner and not a skipjack?
Because if “pressure washer skipjack” falls off his ladder and hurts himself and he doesnt have WCB……you pay for all bodily injury claims and subsequent medical bills.
But you already knew that right?
Any tradesman showing up in a beater car converted to a working vehicle always inspires confidence in me.
Because you can recognize “genius”.

As for your earlier comments about people trading in their gas guzzling vehicles and buying Honda Fits or taking mass transit. Not once did I see you split hairs and differentiate between “commuters” and workers.
Your comment was “trade in that vehicle for a Fit or buy a transit pass”.

Next time your stuck on a broken down East- West Skytrain, glance out at all those gas guzzling vans, trucks and delivery vehicles working day in and day out that are stopped in the Lower Brainland traffic that may, just may have to drive North and South and thank then for the extra $0.10/litre they pay to help subsidize the perpetually indebted Translink.
That bastion of fiscal ineptitude.

#84 50 YEARS OF MAPLE LEAF INCOMPETENCE! on 04.05.19 at 8:40 am

Make Believes lose, 3-1 to the Lightning

Blow Jays lose, 4-1 to the Indians

Ahh, the perfect symmetry of GTA incompetence.

Toronto is so predictably awful, it’s just too easy.

Enjoy your social and real estate meltdown :)

#85 Russ on 04.05.19 at 8:42 am

Ponzius Pilatus on 04.04.19 at 11:05 pm

———
Fartzie,
Not talking about trades people.
It’s about the guy or girl driving to work in a tank alone.
And then bitching about gas prices.
By the way, I had a guy pressure washing my house.
He had an older VW Golf.
He had 2 ladders on top and had the back seats ripped out for his other equipment.
Genius, if you asked me.
I gave him a generous tip.
=======================================================

Was that an electric power washer or one of those gas-driven beasts?

He gets extra points if he used your electricity eh.

#86 not 1st on 04.05.19 at 8:43 am

#68 Jon on 04.04.19 at 11:40 pm
—–

Go into any bank and sit with an advisor. First look at that chart on their wall showing the returns for various financial instruments. Then ask them for a loan to buy equities. Cue the laughter.

Once that’s settled down. Tell them you want to borrow for a commercial property. You will then hear a diatribe of how you need to jump through a bunch of hoops for a business plan and yadda yadda and its really hard and all that.

Ok so then tell them you have a really great idea for a start up business you want to launch and you need a small amount of seed funding. More laughter.

Then before you walk out tell them you want financing for a home mortgage. Well holy S, watch them lay out the red carpet, get you a coffee and start drooling.

That is why Canada is a basket case.

#87 Another Deckchair on 04.05.19 at 8:50 am

Green New Deal talk.

Ok, the expression “follow the money” can be reworded to “follow the energy”.

To revamp our world to reduce energy hits many areas where people are blind to.

Bypassing the physics definition, using the human definition:

Energy for people = lights, radio transmitters, roads, concrete, internet, wifi, gps, cars, bicycles, shoes, asphalt, aircraft, flying, radar, books, amazon, fresh food, actually food of any kind, clean water, sewage, synthetic fabric, natural fabric, bus service, road cleaning, road repair, elevators, paint, granite kitchens, cameras, glass windows, Whatsapp, iPhone, any phone, pencils, paper, toilet paper, sunscreen, x-rays, drugs (any kind), hospitals, and on and on and on.

Every second of our lives revolve around energy use, how we can change that in a few short years is unimaginable.

IMHO, I think those pushing this stuff are the least educated in what “energy” is.

Actually, on second thought, these people are the ones who close their eyes and chant “feel the energy, feel the energy…” ;-)

#88 jess on 04.05.19 at 9:08 am

enlightened omni

comparing the math or comparing the human

Senate Investigates the “Teapot Dome” Scandal

April 15, 1922

Senate Committee on Public Lands hearing

On April 15, 1922, Wyoming Democratic senator John Kendrick introduced a resolution that set in motion one of the most significant investigations in Senate history. On the previous day, the Wall Street Journal had reported an unprecedented secret arrangement in which the secretary of the Interior, without competitive bidding, had leased the U.S. naval petroleum reserve at Wyoming’s Teapot Dome to a private oil company. Wisconsin Republican senator Robert La Follette arranged for the Senate Committee on Public Lands to investigate the matter. His suspicions deepened after someone ransacked his quarters in the Senate Office Building.

Expecting this to be a tedious and probably futile inquiry, the committee’s Republican leadership allowed the panel’s most junior minority member, Montana Democrat Thomas Walsh, to chair the panel. Preeminent among the many difficult questions facing him was, “How did Interior Secretary Albert Fall get so rich so quickly?”

Eventually, the investigation uncovered Secretary Fall’s shady dealings, and Senator Walsh became a national hero. Fall would end up as the first former cabinet officer to go to prison. This and a subsequent Senate inquiry triggered several court cases testing the extent of the Senate’s investigative powers. One of those cases resulted in the landmark 1927 Supreme Court decision McGrain v. Daugherty that, for the first time, explicitly established Congress’s right to compel witnesses to testify before its committees.

https://www.senate.gov/artandhistory/history/minute/Senate_Investigates_the_Teapot_Dome_Scandal.htm

#89 Evangeline on 04.05.19 at 9:28 am

#87 “Every second of our lives revolve around energy use, how we can change that in a few short years is unimaginable.”

I think there will be a radical turn to the new nuclear over the next ten years or so. The USA feds (bipartisan) signed on last week to support new nuclear power development and the industry plans be producing new nuclear generators, which are very different from the dangerous sixties type, on the market in the next couple of years.

Bill Gates is making a life work of promoting this new and safe technology.

https://terrapower.com

(I’m watching this as a future investment possibility.)

#90 Basil Fawlty on 04.05.19 at 9:31 am

Something doesn’t add up here on the economic front. Millions of auto, student loan and credit card delinquencies. 95 million people who have given up looking for work, or are underemployed. Record stock buybacks with all the QE money printed, which pushes up stock prices. $22T in US government debt, plus $70T in total new debt since 2008.

Not to mention the 100’s of trillions in derivative bets holding up the US dollar, as no one wants their treasuries.

Yet, we have sustained strength in the world’s economies? In my opinion this is a house of cards, nothing more than a papered over depression.

#91 dharma bum on 04.05.19 at 9:52 am

uppa, Uppa, UPPA!

Up, UP, and AWAY!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HfxqQmWtGNM

#92 Gravy Train on 04.05.19 at 9:52 am

#58 Nonplused on 04.04.19 at 10:20 pm
“‘Renewable energy’ can’t even be defined because the solar panels […] only last so long (about 20 years), and you have to burn a heck of a lot of carbon fuels to make them.” Energy paybacks are as low as one year, and solar panel degradation rates are as low as 0.03% per year. Photovoltaics “typically come with 20-year warranties that guarantee the panels will produce at least 80% of the rated power after 20 years.”

Here’s some literature on the subject from about 15 years ago:
https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy04osti/35489.pdf
https://www.parliament.uk/documents/post/postpn268.pdf

Read it, and get educated! Welcome to the 21st century! :)

#93 Ron on 04.05.19 at 10:06 am

#86 not 1st on 04.05.19 at 8:43 am
#68 Jon on 04.04.19 at 11:40 pm
—–

Go into any bank and sit with an advisor. First look at that chart on their wall showing the returns for various financial instruments. Then ask them for a loan to buy equities. Cue the laughter.

Once that’s settled down. Tell them you want to borrow for a commercial property. You will then hear a diatribe of how you need to jump through a bunch of hoops for a business plan and yadda yadda and its really hard and all that.

Ok so then tell them you have a really great idea for a start up business you want to launch and you need a small amount of seed funding. More laughter.

Then before you walk out tell them you want financing for a home mortgage. Well holy S, watch them lay out the red carpet, get you a coffee and start drooling.

That is why Canada is a basket case.

—————————————————————

Exactly.

According to CD Howe:

Our recent report finds that Canada’s financial sector over the last 15 years has lagged behind other OECD countries in its contribution to productivity growth. One explanation is that certain government policy and regulations have led to distortions in the allocation of credit. As a result, data suggests that Canada lags behind our peers in business lending behaviour, which is the preferred source of productivity growth

Canada ranks near the bottom in both overall business lending and lending to small businesses (percent of outstanding loans) as a percentage of GDP. Canada also ranks at the bottom with the largest spread between the interest rate for loans to SMEs and those offered to large firms. Improving the financial sector’s productivity would boost not only the sector’s performance but also the economy as a whole

#94 PastThePeak on 04.05.19 at 10:09 am

Canadian economy red hot! Or Not…

Overall employment down 7,200 positions in March. After some big gains in Jan and Feb so not unexpected – and based on Stats Can methodology which does seem to have wild monthly swings (why can’t they get it down to something better after all these years…)

But the key point is how the private sector employment is vs. public.

“Statistics Canada says the number of employee positions in the private sector fell by 17,300 last month, while public-employee jobs increased by 4,200 and self-employed occupations rose by 6,000.”

Morneau will read this and think “…we just need to hire more people in the public sector, problem solved”.

#95 MHM on 04.05.19 at 10:15 am

Paradox:
What if I go into the bank and ask them for a loan to buy shares of their bank?

#96 dharma bum on 04.05.19 at 10:18 am

#84 50 YEARS OF MAPLE LEAF INCOMPETENCE

Make Believes lose, 3-1 to the Lightning

Blow Jays lose, 4-1 to the Indians

Ahh, the perfect symmetry of GTA incompetence.

Toronto is so predictably awful, it’s just too easy.
——————————————————————-

Toronto teams are a surprisingly appropriate microcosm for what’s wrong with this city. It’s an apt symbol. The hype, the anticipation, the high cost, and then the ultimate let-down, and perennial disappointment.

You can set your watch by it. Predictability 101.

Toronto residents think it’s so great. That’s probably in contrast to the hellholes that they originally came from.

I suppose Toronto is better than a lot of horrible cities in other parts of the (third) world – no consistent natural disasters, relatively steady power supply, clean water tapped right into your house (wow!), sewers are UNDER the ground, no real risk of being killed in the streets (well…it does occur occasionally) etc.

If you were born in Toronto, however, and have, over a half-century or more, witnessed the wasted opportunities by visionless, petty, small minded, greedy, backward-thinking sleazeball tacky municipal politicians, you would lament the extent to which this city has fallen behind on so many levels, and what a third rate city it actually is, in comparison to some of the world’s great cities.

Yah, it’s great in comparison to the world’s crappier places, but it has a long way to go to in terms of becoming “world class”.

I feel sorry for young people who are just starting out and trying to make a go of it in Toronto. Most will be financially neutralized just for the “privilege” of living in the GTA. If they had the guts, brains, creativity, vision, or ability, they would establish roots in a community where they at least stood a chance of thriving economically (starting by having housing costs of minimum 1/3 cheaper), and not just merely surviving.

Dog help them.

#97 n1tro on 04.05.19 at 10:29 am

#82 Figure it Out on 04.05.19 at 8:14 am

There are plenty of examples from other times and places. But always remember, the first step to failure is declaring the goal impossible. What a sclerotic society we live in! Evolution or revolution — and I’m hoping for the former.
——————————–
Lots of visionary examples which changed the world. AOC’s new green deal isn’t one of them. How else can you explain it being voted down 57 to zero. Not one democrat voted for it. None. Nadda.

#98 Doug in London on 04.05.19 at 11:17 am

@mike from mtl, post #60:
it’s good to see you had the sense to see that Boxing Day sales came to equities were on sale and scooped more up, like I did. As for preferred share ETFs, I agree that selling them last year before they dropped would have been a good idea but that’s hindsight. Remember that hindsight is and always will be 20/20. Going forward, the fact that those preferred share ETFs have dropped should tell you something. If you don’t already have good exposure to these ETFs it might be wise to cash in some of those equities you bought on sale and buy more of those preferred share ETFs, especially if more interest rate raises are on the way.

#99 Bologna on 04.05.19 at 11:17 am

Rate increases with all the awesome jobs reports and awsome economy

#100 Captain Uppa on 04.05.19 at 11:18 am

Job numbers go downa, Downa, DOWNA.

#101 not 1st on 04.05.19 at 11:38 am

Nobody has yet to come up with a viable environmental plan. Its either couched with selective breaks for emitters who wont make changes and punishing others, or its loaded up with socialism.

In 2015 the liberal were pitched a nice easy program. the western provinces would kick in some funds if the feds matched to put out of work oilfield people back to work remediating old well sites. Total easy win win. Who wouldn’t support something like that. Nope carbon tax only so the cash can be redistributed.

The year after Sask show cased it carbon capture project which is technology that can be developed and sold to china and the like. They asked to recognition for the program and funds to expand it and sell it. Nope carbon tax only and btw shut down your coal plants.

The year after Sask announced moving to 50% renewables wind and solar in like 20 yrs or something. Asked the feds to support the program and recognize it. Manitoba had a similar plan. Nope carbon tax only and btw no pipelines for you.

See the stupidity true environmental action is up against. That carbon tax is just hidden GST increase combined with more equalization to dole out in Quebec. Same as AOCs brain child.

#102 not 1st on 04.05.19 at 11:49 am

It goes further. In the development of emissions targets, it was presented to politicians that Canada has 500 billion trees and millions of acres of minimal tillage farmland both which sequester incredible amounts of carbon. Canadas arable farmland is essentially a giant solar panel. Canada is in fact carbon negative. We could have claimed those sinks at the accords and invited carbon credits to actually be purchased here and to increase as we develop more renewables over time. That was all rejected and not even proposed. Instead we prostrated ourselves to the climate groups as bad indulgent people who should be ashamed.

Imagine billions of climate dollars coming could have been coming in here instead of being spent up in smoke it half baked tax scheme.

#103 Point of no Return on 04.05.19 at 12:16 pm

96 dharma bum on 04.05.19 at 10:18 am
#84 50 YEARS OF MAPLE LEAF INCOMPETENCE

Make Believes lose, 3-1 to the Lightning

Blow Jays lose, 4-1 to the Indians

Ahh, the perfect symmetry of GTA incompetence.

Toronto is so predictably awful, it’s just too easy.
——————————————————————-

Toronto teams are a surprisingly appropriate microcosm for what’s wrong with this city. It’s an apt symbol. The hype, the anticipation, the high cost, and then the ultimate let-down, and perennial disappointment.

You can set your watch by it. Predictability 101.

Toronto residents think it’s so great. That’s probably in contrast to the hellholes that they originally came from.

I suppose Toronto is better than a lot of horrible cities in other parts of the (third) world – no consistent natural disasters, relatively steady power supply, clean water tapped right into your house (wow!), sewers are UNDER the ground, no real risk of being killed in the streets (well…it does occur occasionally) etc.

If you were born in Toronto, however, and have, over a half-century or more, witnessed the wasted opportunities by visionless, petty, small minded, greedy, backward-thinking sleazeball tacky municipal politicians, you would lament the extent to which this city has fallen behind on so many levels, and what a third rate city it actually is, in comparison to some of the world’s great cities.

Yah, it’s great in comparison to the world’s crappier places, but it has a long way to go to in terms of becoming “world class”.

I feel sorry for young people who are just starting out and trying to make a go of it in Toronto. Most will be financially neutralized just for the “privilege” of living in the GTA. If they had the guts, brains, creativity, vision, or ability, they would establish roots in a community where they at least stood a chance of thriving economically (starting by having housing costs of minimum 1/3 cheaper), and not just merely surviving.

Dog help them

———————————————————————

This couldn’t been more perfectly stated and written. This city is easily three swirls down the toilet and like the rest of Canada, has to compare itself to the most godforsaken parts of the world in order to keep the masses ignorant and paying for the horrific cost of living, Coast to Coast. Canada in general could have been a great country but some of the most incompetent and criminally negligent political leadership has it on a crash course with being a gender neutral, Banana Republic mired in identity politics with really no economic future except for banks robbing you blind who are allowed to create money out of thin air and then put Canadian citizens on the hook for their risk management.

If you truly love your children, have them take their talents to countries that actually nurture and appreciate their hard work and innovation. Places where bus drivers and high school dropout cops won’t out earn a chemical engineer.

God help every Canadian especially the younger generation.

#104 CTO on 04.05.19 at 12:27 pm

“signalling sustained strength in the US and global economies (Canada is another story).”

Garth,….that sounds very suggestive to a Canadian recession. Right?

A contraction may occur. But, so what? Those with well-balanced portfolios won’t notice much. – Garth

#105 millmech on 04.05.19 at 12:28 pm

#93 Ron
If CMHC is backstopping almost a trillion dollars in mortgage debt that means every single person in Canada is basically on the hook for $270k if it goes bad. Banks are guaranteed this money by CMHC why would they want to push anything else than risk free money. This is why the market is so distorted and it will not change until CMHC is changed.

#106 cto on 04.05.19 at 12:33 pm

and what happens if Canada finally has the recession / correction that it should have had back in 2009? What happens if America chuggs ahead, fed raises rates accordingly…. and Canuckistan is stuck in reverse???
Will the TSX go for a crapper, how will the housing market adjust. Will goofball (poloz) raise rates with the FED or create hyper inflation of necessary Canadian goods like FOOD just so he can save his stupid housing market.?

#107 Short Commons on 04.05.19 at 12:39 pm

According to this, on a per-capita basis Canada is the 3rd worst greenhouse gas emitter in the world. Sure, it is small in totality but we could still improve.

https://www.shortcommons.com/2019/03/canadas-surprising-rank-on-garbage-and.html

#108 Erich on 04.05.19 at 12:46 pm

Definitely a correction happening in TO.

https://www.blogto.com/real-estate-toronto/2019/04/5-southlea-ave/

But in the wrong direction.

A $3.5 million house listed for $2.95 million – and you fell for it? – Garth

#109 I'm Not A Believer on 04.05.19 at 12:46 pm

#51 Ace Goodheart

You’re right on many points. Sadly I’ve given up trying to explain to friends, etc. They think I’m the problem. So now I just keep quiet, cause that’s what the herd wants.
I actually want the shit storm to hit. All the stuff Garth has been warning about for years. Bring it on. Why? Because many have never experienced it and therefore don’t believe it could happen. They think it’s all chicken little talk.
So let them have the full experience. There’s no better way to learn. Words are meaningless.

#110 SoggyShorts on 04.05.19 at 12:53 pm

#58 Nonplused on 04.04.19 at 10:20 pm
#46 yorkville renter
For example, what exactly is “free education”?
************
It’s not that hard to figure out- probably something like western European countries have?

#58 Nonplused on 04.04.19 at 10:20 pm
#46 yorkville renter

And what, exactly, is “green energy”? Bird killing windmills? Land destroying solar panels?

********************
Bird killing?! Seriously?

https://science.howstuffworks.com/environmental/green-science/wind-turbine-kill-birds.htm

Land Destroying?
You do know that there is unused rooftop space like everywhere, right?

I’m not saying that the Green new deal is perfect or even good, but your points are kinda silly.

#111 Brett in Calgary on 04.05.19 at 12:58 pm

Looking like a Mandel vote for this guy.

#112 Stock Trawler on 04.05.19 at 1:08 pm

OK, I stepped up with a big buy in Saputo, what have you done lately. Ryan, you like charts, check out this double bottom. Fundamentals, news of an all cash UK aquisition in the 1.3 billion range without change normal course issuer and buying back shares and paying a dividend. Analysts are behind in this stick, the aquisition is instantly accretive and not reflected yet. Investing is forward looking, buying ahead of the market. Here you go, make a monkey out of this and give us something better. My guesstimate is 30% plus on SAP before year end maybe sooner. This is stock picking at it’s best.

#113 n1tro on 04.05.19 at 1:13 pm

#107 Short Commons on 04.05.19 at 12:39 pm
According to this, on a per-capita basis Canada is the 3rd worst greenhouse gas emitter in the world. Sure, it is small in totality but we could still improve.

https://www.shortcommons.com/2019/03/canadas-surprising-rank-on-garbage-and.html
————–
Where is China on that chart? Could it be that China’s bar would be so high that it would dwarf Canada and all the others? Want to save the planet? Focus on the low hanging fruit as you get better returns for the amount of effort put in.

#114 Bigriders Nonno on 04.05.19 at 1:26 pm

Ok . I see everybody maka fun of a nonno anda my uppa Uppa UPPA. Ok people everybody hava bigga joka ona nonno. Ima ok wit a dis.

Garth, da pricea ofa da real estata isa gonna keepa go uppa Uppa UPPA and Ima gonna give you another good reason a why along wita free bottle of a nonna’s pommodore sauce.

You tella me, how mucha da industry around da stock marketo the governemnt collect in a tax ? Not much ugh me tink.

But when ita coma to da building industry ,whena union drywaller for example and for god a sake, maka 175k a year and pay tax and people who buy house pay transfer, land transfer so many layer a tax, you better believa me da government gonna keepa dis building industry alive. And to Nonno ,dat mean more government ‘help” to maka more sales from a da house horny people.

It really is dat a simple. Much like Italian food, the best have simple ingredients all a fresh. Much like the housing mania, it is still frsh on everybody’s mind and the best explanation for it is the simple one.

#115 AGuyInVancouver on 04.05.19 at 2:33 pm

#113 n1tro on 04.05.19 at 1:13 pm
Where is China on that chart? Could it be that China’s bar would be so high that it would dwarf Canada and all the others? Want to save the planet? Focus on the low hanging fruit as you get better returns for the amount of effort put in.
_ _ _
Who cares where China is on the chart?! We have no control over what they do, but we do over what happens in Canada. Your argument is the same pathetic one advanced by Cons all the time: since Country A isn’t doing anything, we shouldn’t do anything either.

#116 Stan Brooks on 04.05.19 at 2:41 pm

Sold by a corrupted government in a third world country.
Pay up sheeple.

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/worst-deal-ever-the-407-is-worth-30-b-today-ontario-sold-it-for-31-b-in-1998-181642680.html

#117 n1tro on 04.05.19 at 2:45 pm

#115 AGuyInVancouver on 04.05.19 at 2:33 pm
#113 n1tro on 04.05.19 at 1:13 pm
Where is China on that chart? Could it be that China’s bar would be so high that it would dwarf Canada and all the others? Want to save the planet? Focus on the low hanging fruit as you get better returns for the amount of effort put in.
_ _ _
Who cares where China is on the chart?! We have no control over what they do, but we do over what happens in Canada. Your argument is the same pathetic one advanced by Cons all the time: since Country A isn’t doing anything, we shouldn’t do anything either.
————————–
My argument is that it doesn’t make sense to allocate resources to something has minimal returns. But go right ahead and pee in the wind if you like.

#118 Finally on 04.05.19 at 2:47 pm

Garth,
Your wisest words ever:
“his transcendent divinity and enlightened omnipotence.”
Thank you for finally appreciating a real presidente (not a teacher)
All lives matter!
All genders matter!
PCCommon sense!

#119 Shawn Allen on 04.05.19 at 3:55 pm

Is CMHC the main problem?

#105 millmech on 04.05.19 at 12:28 pm said:

If CMHC is backstopping almost a trillion dollars in mortgage debt that means every single person in Canada is basically on the hook for $270k if it goes bad. Banks are guaranteed this money by CMHC why would they want to push anything else than risk free money. This is why the market is so distorted and it will not change until CMHC is changed.

*******************************
That is a lot of zeros but that should be $27k per capita. And that is only if houses become literally worthless.

It is interesting that CMHC insurance has been around for decades but somehow the problems are more recent.

Perhaps the banks slowly learned to leverage more and more aggressively based on CMHC? I imagine securitisation is more widespread than decades ago. Also banks use a risk-weighted asset approach. I believe the risk weight on CMHC mortgages may be zero and if so that allows infinite leverage. So maybe indeed the banks are leveraging more. The approach to risk weighting of assets has changed over the decades.

If the banks can leverage to the hilt and make money if things go well and someone else takes the downside risk that does seem like a bad recipe.

Overall though, it seems like it is extremely low interest rates that have created the high prices and the ability and willingness of people to take on massive debt.

In any case what can an individual do about it? CMHC exists and that will not change. We can all place bets according to what we think will happen. Or just take a balanced approach and avoid making specific bets. To each their own.

#120 Smartalox on 04.05.19 at 4:12 pm

@Stan Brooks:

As I recall at the time, the Harris Tories used the ‘one-time’ windfall from the sale of a publicly funded asset to trumpet loudly that they had complied with their “common Sense Revolution” balanced budget initiative. So much better than those free-spending Liberals or NDP.

When the Harris Tories subsequently won re-election in 1999, they also gave every taxpayer in the Province a ‘One Time’ $200 handout (bribe) to ‘stimulate the economy’. This was the team that included Jim Flaherty, John Baird, Tony Clement (who presided over the sale), and, of course, Doug Ford Sr.

By the time the Liberals were elected again in 2003, they found the debt accumulated by their predecessors to be $50 Billion.

That’s Neo-Conservative (populist) fiscal management for you: sell public assets into private hands, cutting revenue streams. Hand tax dollars back to tax payers (for free!), keep the losses off the books, then lie about what a good job you’re doing. It’s good for about a decade, before the rubes catch on.

#121 Ubul on 04.05.19 at 4:13 pm

#118 Finally on 04.05.19 at 2:47 pm

Garth,
Your wisest words ever:
“his transcendent divinity and enlightened omnipotence.”
Thank you for finally appreciating a real presidente (not a teacher)
All lives matter!
All genders matter!
PCCommon sense!

One of the European opera company wants to play Porgy és Bess. The copyright owners insist that only African-Americans can perform the musical. All participants had to sign a declaration that they identify themselves with Afro-American origin and culture.

At least there are crazy loopholes in craziness.

#122 Smoking Man on 04.05.19 at 8:41 pm

Enjoy life dont, worry about the small shit.

Gamble bitches.

#123 holly on 04.08.19 at 3:13 pm

… But I thought Trump was an idiot who was going to crash the world economy… The Greater Fool told me so!