Pooched update

The scene of a recent armed abduction of some Chinese dude from a swishy condo parking garage, Markham currently has about 100 houses for sale priced at over $2 million. These two things probably have nothing to do with each other, but it just goes to show you what an altered and entertaining place it can be. Forever a sleepy burb on the far fringes of the Big Smoke, this is now an inner-905 mini-city which developers have done their best to pave over with McMansions.

So, here’s the news (besides the abduction – they caught the guys). Last month two houses sold for more than two million, leaving the other ninety-odd languishing on the market. So if you’re one of the sellers, you could be waiting ten years for a buyer to come along. This is a stark reminder that the mighty GTA real estate market is every bit as wobbly, unstable and corrupted as that of Van and the LM.

Things are grim in many parts of the GTA. Days-on-market has grown longer than Trudeau’s nose. Price cuts are everywhere. Mortgage originations have plopped. Sales have fallen. Credit been diminished. FOMO fizzled.

This week the realtor cartel released its latest batch of stats, claiming sales and prices were flat overall. (Nothing to see. Move along.) However this is not the case. Most who bought in the last couple of years have shed equity.

Let’s focus on the best-of-the-best in this market – a detached house in 416. Two years ago the average one was fetching $1.56 million. That increased in April and held steady in May. One year later, the March price was $1.3 million, rising a little to $1.42 million by the end of rutting season. This year (March), the same house fetched $1.26 million.

So the two-year decline is $294,400, or 19%. If the long-term average annual appreciation of housing in Canada is 3% (which it is), you can see the damage caused by this magnitude of decline. Meanwhile, the two-year return on a balanced portfolio has been about 14% (including last year’s sell-off).

But it gets worse. Real estate (unlike financial assets) has huge transactional costs (plus big operating overhead – like property taxes). For example, to buy that average 416 detached property in 2017 at $1.5 million required $55,400 in land transfer tax alone. To sell for the standard 5% MLS commission would cost another $63,400. So on a two-year hold the loss is more than $413,000 – or 26.4%.

Of course if you leveraged this property (like everyone does) the losses would be amplified. And while most people don’t buy and sell in a 24 or 30-month span, this provides a useful comparison with other asset classes – and a reminder never, ever, ever to put all your cadoodles in one place.

Yesterday we heard why YVR realtors think their market is crashing. Here’s the view from Toronto: “The OSFI stress test continues to impact home buyers’ ability to qualify for a mortgage. TREB is still arguing that the stress test provisions and mortgage lending guidelines generally, including allowable amortization periods for insured mortgages, should be reviewed.”

But we now know neither of those things will happen in 2019. And there’s more – Toronto is considering hiking its punitive land transfer tax to stratospheric levels on high-end homes, following Van politician’s lust to eat the rich. To their credit, the realtors object: “The recently proposed increase to the Municipal Land Transfer Tax on higher priced properties is problematic. As the recent City budget process showed, the MLTT is not a sustainable revenue source from which to fund municipal programs. On top of this, additional MLTT on higher priced homes could have a trickle-down effect on the supply of homes throughout the housing price continuum.”

So, in conclusion: in some areas of the metropolis, things are awful. In the heart of the core, not much better. A 20% price dip is big news, as are lower sales. To blame is the collision of ridiculous, lustful prices with political ineptitude. And while lower real estate values are a societal goal, they will come with copious middle class blood and guts.

We’re now in Year Two of the process. No reason to think it’s ending. Recall that real estate peaked in 1989, slid for half a decade (- 32%) then took 13 years to recover – not even counting inflation or transaction costs. In the States, average residential values didn’t erase losses nationally for 11 years after a freefall – also of 32%.

By the way, condo sales fell 14% year/year in Toronto and 35% in YVR. First-time buyers are the fuel that stokes real estate’s fires. They, like the speculators and amateur landlords – prime condo buyers – are vanishing into the herd.

That’s it. A silent spring. And stay out of underground garages.

120 comments ↓

#1 braj on 04.03.19 at 3:45 pm

first? sure doesn’t seem like the RE train is stopping anytime soon.

#2 Dave on 04.03.19 at 3:47 pm

In Vancouver gas is $1.60 per liter….WTF

When oil was at $140, that was the excuse to rip off everyone. Now its at $60, taxes, greed and the legacy of Standard Oil live on.

The price of consumer goods is whatever the elite deem it to be.

#3 MHM on 04.03.19 at 3:47 pm

But TREB, why do we need to adjust the stress test if prices are up and competition is rampant?!?

#4 Brian Ripley on 04.03.19 at 4:01 pm

March 2019 housing data out early for Toronto and Vancouver, so charts are up now

Toronto http://www.chpc.biz/toronto-housing.html
Vancouver http://www.chpc.biz/vancouver-housing.html
Compare Vancouver to Toronto http://www.chpc.biz/compare-toronto–vancouver.html

TORONTO MARKET HAS BUYERS
Res-Listings down 31% from MAY 2013 high
Res-Sales down 44% from JUN 2016 high
Current Monthly Absorption Rate = 46%
Current Months of Inventory = 2
Toronto SF Detached Price
Down 18.9% from MAR 2017 Peak
Up 126% in last 10 years
Toronto Town-House Price
Down 8.3% from MAR 2017 Peak
T-Houses are priced at 66% of SFDs
or 1 SFD = 1.5 Townhouses
Toronto Condo Price
Down 1.8% from SEP 2018 Peak
Condos are priced at 57% of SFDs
or 1 SFD = 1.8 Condos

VANCOUVER NOT SO MUCH
Res-Listings down 31% from JUN 2012 high
Res-Sales down 67% from MAR 2016 high
Current Monthly Absorption Rate = 14%
Current Months of Inventory = 7
Vancouver SF Detached Price
Down 11.1% from SEP 2017 Peak
Up 121% in last 10 years
Vancouver TownHouse Price
Down 8.9% from JUN 2018 Peak
T-Houses are priced at 55% of SFDs
or 1 SFD = 1.8 Townhouses
Vancouver Condo Price
Down 6.7% from JUN 2018 Peak
Condos are priced at 46% of SFDs
or 1 SFD = 2.2 Condos

#5 JB on 04.03.19 at 4:15 pm

By the way, condo sales fell 14% year/year in Toronto and 35% in YVR. First-time buyers are the fuel that stokes real estate’s fires. They, like the speculators and amateur landlords – prime condo buyers – are vanishing into the herd.

That’s it. A silent spring. And stay out of underground garages.
………………………………………………………………….
The Prime Condo buyers are idiots anyway. Who in their right mind pays anyone that much for a overpriced concrete bunker in the sky. They are filled with renters from the other idiot owners that already jumped the shark for a condo. Now they have to pay for it since it has closed. Pfft armatures.

#6 Deplorable Dude on 04.03.19 at 4:29 pm

Anecdotal evidence in my middle class Nanaimo sub division. No slow down in sales here. 2 houses went up last week, both sold immediately, barely had time to get the for sale sign up.

Nanaimo stats year/year. Sales: down 4%. Price growth: zero. – Garth

#7 NotLegalAdvice on 04.03.19 at 4:33 pm

Year 2 of 5? Another 3 to go then!

What goes up, must come down.

Down she goesssssss!

#8 dakkie on 04.03.19 at 4:34 pm

Global Real Estate Prices DROP! Worst Slowdown Since Financial Crisis!

https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/global-real-estate-prices-drop-worst-slowdown-since-financial-crisis/

#9 konijr on 04.03.19 at 4:36 pm

Has anyone else noticed how Harper and Obama aged quickly while in office. Trudeau and Trump still look the same.

JWR and Dr. JP should go over to the NDP. Tank the way they do in sports and next election either of them is a party leader. Poor Jag, he could use that media attention to drum up support.

#10 Sovavia on 04.03.19 at 4:37 pm

Canada has all three ingredients for a balance sheet recession.

(a) A rise in real estate prices (well over the long-term average);
(b) An increase in household debt levels (historical highs versus incomes); and
(c) A large current account deficit (% of GDP).

The Bank of Canada might be correct in letting the loonie drop below 62 cents (just like in 2002).

But what are our fiscal authorities doing to prepare the country?

#11 Reality is stark on 04.03.19 at 4:38 pm

Lower real estate prices are not going to stop politicians from stealing from you.
They will raise the mill rate.
For those of you who were smart enough to make some money in the last ten years do not worry, the government has a plan to take that money.
Someone has to pay for their Federal and Provincial program absurdities.
For the life of these clowns they cannot control costs even when there was a surplus of labour.
They are incompetent buffoons.
Perhaps they need to be subject to random drug testing to try to see why their decision making skills are so poor.

#12 DaleFromCalgary on 04.03.19 at 4:43 pm

#2 (Dave): Don’t blame the oil companies for Vancouver’s gasoline prices. Thank the provincial Dippers and federal Liberals for the carbon taxes, which will do nothing for the environment.

#13 Aggie on 04.03.19 at 4:43 pm

Thank you Garth, for this well written piece!
I concur, but it’s hard to convince otherwise!

#14 Hanny Elsayed on 04.03.19 at 4:52 pm

March charts are up: https://TorontoRealEstateCharts.com

#15 D Apostrophe on 04.03.19 at 5:17 pm

One of my neighborhood developers is building Markham .. luckily, daddy is a rich man. I’ll pray for the rest of ya.

#16 theoryAndPractice on 04.03.19 at 5:18 pm

in 2017 at $1.5 million required $55,400 in land transfer tax alone. To sell for the standard 5% MLS commission would cost another $63,400. So on a two-year hold the loss is more than $413,000 – or 26.4%. -GT


Commissions has also ‘HST’ on top – so the seller must pay agreed commission + HST on the commission
just stating the ‘not so obvious’.

just an example how many people does not know while signing what they are signing :
https://www.thestar.com/business/personal_finance/2014/06/08/one_mans_50500_real_estate_commission_lesson.html

#17 Shawn Allen on 04.03.19 at 5:20 pm

Oil Prices could go over $100 per barrel…

Well, in Canadian dollars…

We are at U.S. $62.46 for WTI. And Western Canadian Select is not so far behind at $54.24 (You’re Welcome!… says the NDP)

That’s already $83 Canadian for WTI and $72 for Western Canadian Select.

To get to Canadian $100 for WTI, we just need U.S. $75 or the Canadian dollar to fall to 62 cents (which some predict – but seems unlikely)

#18 The real Kip (Ret) on 04.03.19 at 5:28 pm

Hmmm. 7187 sales in GTA in March would seem to me to strong enough. You guys worry too much.

#19 Geoffrey on 04.03.19 at 5:33 pm

Garth, you always stress that real estate is location specific, it would be insightful if you could publish an article as to what is the situation in Edmonton, Alberta. Thanks.

#20 yorkville renter on 04.03.19 at 5:41 pm

also read today that TREB will add ‘listing days in market’ to allow for greater transparency- since their hands are now tied since RE info is now publically available.

by the way, houses that were re-listed took an average of 8 days longer to sell

#21 espressobob on 04.03.19 at 5:41 pm

Condos were designing decades age for seniors looking for new digs without all the headaches like snow removal, landscaping crap and maintenance issues. Retirement stuff. Dump the house.

Those units were sizable unlike what is going on currently, and paid in full with cash.

Who in their right mind carries a mortgage for a an apartment in the sky for the rest of their lives?

#22 yvr_lurker on 04.03.19 at 5:41 pm

I think that Garth’s comment that 40% of Canadians pay no net tax needs to be examined more carefully. This was used yesterday to counteract the critique of satellite families who declare super-low income (paying no tax) when all the money earned is hidden overseas where it is difficult for the CRA to track.

Of the 40% that Garth claims: 1) What percentage are seniors who are retired and now out of the workforce with rather low incomes who contributed their fair share of taxes over an ENTIRE lifetime? 2) what percentage of that 40% are young adults (age say 18–25) who are low income due to the fact that they are getting an advanced education or apprenticeship of some sort, who will be FULL-PAYING TAXPAYERS at some later stage? What about those from first nations (which is a super-complicated issue)?

With Garth quoting the 40% figure we need to take these extra factors into consideration. I don’t think that the 40% figure means a huge swath (close to 40%) of “free-loading citizens” who perpetually, year after year, ride on the back of others. Satellite families, however, who make a 1-time mega-house purchase, but then declare a 20K annual household income year after year, all the while accessing schools, hospital care, language training, make (in my view) much less of a contribution with no guarantee that they will ever (unlike the local students who are training for good jobs) pay their fare share of income taxes. The CRA needs to actively go after this lot and tax appropriately their worldwide income.

#23 Still learning on 04.03.19 at 5:42 pm

Thank you for this blog. My husband has remarked to me twice this week, emotionally even, that he is so grateful that I saved us from buying a box in burbs of the LM about 2 years ago. We would likely be about to go under water and have ridiculous amounts of stress right about now if we had have done that. Instead we have nearly 70,000 in funds (yes mutual funds but they’ve been doing very well and we started with 20,000) and we’ve kept to our 1 bed apt for now to make it work.

Amazing what I see coming onto the market on Craigslist. 2 years ago there was literally nothing in Vancouver listed. Now scores of new condos (and fairly new – 2 years old), hitting the market – with many more cranes up in the sky still and ground being newly broken as we speak! I can’t help but shudder when I think where it’s all going to lead.

Still people think housing is the only way in Canada.

Thank you for this information you’ve provided. It’s so nice to not have such massive financial pressure. We are planning two trips this coming year and forcing ourselves to think outside of the box in terms of retirement.

#24 Bob Dog on 04.03.19 at 6:04 pm

Sound advice for Realtors® moving forward:

Learn to code.

Here is a sample of some of the knowledge you need to acquire. Good luck!

https://www.ets.org/Media/Tests/MFT/pdf/mft_samp_questions_compsci.pdf

#25 Oakville Sucks on 04.03.19 at 6:15 pm

Neighbours down the street bought town home for $875K two years ago. They spent another 30k in renos prior to moving in. Presently she might sell for $800K as house is up for sale. She’s down $150K in two years!

#26 Barb on 04.03.19 at 6:18 pm

“government ineptitude”.

Appears to be a politician’s prerequisite.
Everywhere.

#27 slam on 04.03.19 at 6:23 pm

#2 “When oil was at $140, that was the excuse to rip off everyone. Now its at $60, taxes, greed and the legacy of Standard Oil live on.”

My uncle said the same thing.

Is now the time to build more refineries in Canada?

#28 MF on 04.03.19 at 6:26 pm

#11 Reality is stark on 04.03.19 at 4:38 pm

“the government has a plan to take that money.
Someone has to pay for their Federal and Provincial program absurdities.”

-Actually, if you had bothered to read before posting that emotional drivel, you would see that the main expenses the government has are actually benefits paid out to people (EI/OAS/Child benefits)…rather than fictitious janitors making 300k/year (which is what you are alluding to):

https://www.fin.gc.ca/afr-rfa/2018/report-rapport-eng.asp#_Toc525903644

Do you consider those benefits “absurdities”?

What you, and others, continuously ignore is demographics. Nothing new. We’ve been hearing it for years and it’s now here. More and more seniors mean less and less revenue with generally higher expenses (see the increase in health care transfer payments in that link above)?

MF

#29 aerozone on 04.03.19 at 6:32 pm

#2 #12
Dave and Dale…
Big oil is only responsible for a percentage of your
retail cost. These companies are taxed HEAVILY at
all points along the way for their commodity to get to
retail point of sale. Traders at wholesale level influence
price as well, business as usual. The oil guys are keeping a lot of blood sucking bureaucrats employed
and believe me, they don’t like it.

#30 MF on 04.03.19 at 6:33 pm

#21 espressobob on 04.03.19 at 5:41 pm

“Those units were sizable unlike what is going on currently, and paid in full with cash.

Who in their right mind carries a mortgage for a an apartment in the sky for the rest of their lives?”

-Total opposite is true. Those who bought condos were smart. They knew the BoC was incompetent and so they called their bluff. They knew there is an unstoppable trends towards urbanization. They knew more and more people don’t want to do any yardwork and maintenance, not just seniors. They knew gas prices are a joke and owning a car is an expense and many people would rather use public transport. They knew commuting for hours to buy some crap home in Barrie for 600k is no ones dream.

You’ve got it reversed, and those that bought have been rewarded handsomely.

MF

#31 unbalanced on 04.03.19 at 6:36 pm

Are you finally saying the Van market and L.M. is corrupted?

#32 Dolce Vita on 04.03.19 at 6:46 pm

THAT was excellent Garth.

When you’re on a roll, as in today’s Blog, you do not muck about nor sugar coat what is happening. In this case 416 RE.

Unrelated, I especially liked:

“…longer than Trudeau’s nose”.

THAT was good and in this case, INNUENDO better yet from a cold hard numbers brandishing Conservative Softie [sic].

———————————————

I think people like RE as they get a roof over their heads they can eventually call their own, a yard with grass for their kids to play on and a relatively safe bet vs. the economy at large (and as of late, Home as ATM).

Toronto RE Price Corrections/Crashes in the last 45 years:

1974, 1989, 2017.

Canadian Recessions in the last 45 years:

October 2008-May 2009
March 1990-April 1992
June 1981-October 1982
January 1980-June 1980
December 1974-March 1975

ONE THING , the above helps explain why it takes so long for 416 RE to recover, the Cdn. economy throws in a few recessions to slow price recovery to a crawl.

I agree with you though, hands down better to have invested that money in Mr. Market. Historically, TRIPLE the return:

1969 to 2018 Compound Annual Growth Rate, rounded up:

Avg. Toronto Home Price = 3%.
S&P 500 = 9%.

———————————————

Buonanotte e Ciao d'[*]Italia.

*not only recessione tecnica, also where RE only seems to go down (but hey, the espresso and foods not bad).

#33 Yell0w Ve$ts Canada on 04.03.19 at 6:49 pm

BANNED

#34 Beso on 04.03.19 at 7:02 pm

Garth! You are enjoying this aren’t you!
What the heck, me too

#35 DQ on 04.03.19 at 7:14 pm

Why are so many people reacting with astonishment that potential VanRE buyers sitting on the sidelines haven’t jumped into the market now that prices are off 10-20-30% from their peak?

SFD houses were barely affordable based on local incomes 10-15 years ago. Since then they went up something ridiculous like 400%.

So a $1M house in 2005 going up to $4M in 2016 isn’t going to attract any local buyers after a 10-20% haircut. It’s only after a 75% haircut that that house might actually become affordable again to local buyers with local incomes.

So there’s still a LOOOOOOONG way to go before those potential buyers on the sidelines jump in. No one is going to catch a falling knife, and no one is going to jump in until houses are affordable based on local incomes.

Until then sellers can hold out wishing for delusional 2016 pricing, but Mr. Market and price discovery is going to be a rude awakening for them. There is always someone that is forced to sell due to their circumstances changing and once the comp is set, that’s it.

Let the whole thing burn to the ground, until all excesses of the last 10-15 years have worked themselves out.

There is no substitution for long term mean reversion. Until we get there (and possibly even overshoot) the potential buyers like me will continue sitting on our hands.

#36 Re 31 unbalanced on 04.03.19 at 7:23 pm

DELETED

#37 Dolce Vita on 04.03.19 at 7:29 pm

This whole Canadian debt “thing” is a quandary at times to me, especially when it comes to AVERAGES.

Good Canadians:

$12 Trillion in Assets, 2016
$2 Trillion in Household Debt, 2019
29.6% debt free, 2016
$200,000 average mortgage debt, 2017 (here I assume they averaged ONLY mortgage holders)

Bad “Average” Canadians:

14.9% disposable income to pay debt, 2019
Household debt of $1.79 for every $1 of disposable income, 2019

Averages are deceiving.

If 30% of the population is debt free (no average) that means that the other 70% have MUCH HIGHER debt numbers than reported. It means that Canadians WITH DEBT:

Use 21.3% of disposable income to pay debt, and
that comes from $2.56 of debt they have for every $1 of income.

The problem with AVERAGES, they obscure the ACTUAL.

Worse yet, the Canadians that are debt free…well here is the breakdown by age group (2016):

under 35 = 23.4%
35 to 44 = 15.4%
45 to 54 = 18.4%
55 to 64 = 26.6%
65 and older = 58.0%

Most of the debt free are Garth’s “Wrinklies”.

————————————————-

What ever recession or house price correction is to come/happening will be EXACERBATED by the ACTUAL debt numbers in Canada at present.

And the POOCHED, well, they’ll be the young (as always).

Yet again, Buonanotte.

#38 Ryan on 04.03.19 at 7:48 pm

If anyone interested in seeing snapshot of top performing neighborhoods in Oakville/Burlington/Hamilton (detached sales price +/- vs. LY etc):

https://urbangroup.com/local-neighbourhoods-4th-quarter-sales-stats-

#39 Dolce Vita on 04.03.19 at 7:56 pm

#33 Yell0w Ve$ts Canada on 04.03.19 at 6:49 pm
BANNED

Hard to say if this individual is representative of the movement. Suffice to say, they are a force to be reckoned with.

You do not see it in the HOLIER than THOU N. American main stream media but the Yellow Vests are still protesting in Paris on weekends (thank God, they have in general stopped trashing it):

https://it.euronews.com/video/2019/03/30/francia-i-gilet-gialli-non-mollano

They seem calm, the Yellow Vests, then again Paris has been turned into a Police State to ensure this. View the Police presence and apparel in the above short video.

Not my recollection of Paris in Spring.

There is a FINE LINE between democratic protest and near insurrection.

Why I have stopped visiting Paris, for now.

Banned for vulgarity, racism and violence. He followed with a personal email threat to me. The RCMP on Vancouver Island are aware. – Garth

#40 50 YEARS OF MAPLE LEAF INCOMPETENCE! on 04.03.19 at 8:05 pm

“And stay out of underground garages.”

And Toronturds, if you have a soul (not likely) you should also stay away from under-expressway restaurants!

This is just appalling.

After evicting desperate homeless people from their homes under the Gardiner Expressway in the middle of winter, Toronto is allowing douchebag wannabe elites to enjoy the same space with no penalties for a ridiculous pop-up restaurant costing $500-$1000 for a small table of people to have one dinner.

https://www.cbc.ca/radio/asithappens/as-it-happens-monday-edition-1.5079615/posh-dome-restaurant-opens-under-toronto-expressway-weeks-after-homeless-camp-eviction-1.5079628

Ghastly. Soulless. UnCanadian.

What is wrong with the GTA? Markham. Milton (great Fire Department, eh!) Toronto. All of it stinks.

Meanwhile, your Blow Jays attracted crickets, barely over 10,000 losers in a 50,000 plus seat stadium.

https://www.narcity.com/ca/on/toronto/news/blue-jays-game-had-lowest-attendance-on-record-in-nearly-a-decade-last-night

Maybe the gullible fans were at home, fearing they might be murdered on Toronto’s violent streets? Or waiting for a call from their HELOC administrator, desperate to get more debt to pay for food while their crapshacks drop in value?

And of course the Make Believes were CRUSHED 4-1 by Carolina, a team that has actually WON a Stanley Cup this century!!

Toronto sucks. A despicable region of selfish, shallow deplorables.

You deserve the coming real estate crash more than anyone, GTAholes.

#41 Mohammad Omarkhail on 04.03.19 at 8:16 pm

Garth who would want to buy any house in Toronto or Markham for the price they are asking? You have to be nuts. You can get a 4000 square foot house in beatufiul Kleinburg for 1.2 million. Sheesh it’s some weird obsession to live in Toronto or Markham.

Sucks that it takes an income of over 200k per couple to own a house.

#42 NoName on 04.03.19 at 8:22 pm

#39 Dolce Vita on 04.03.19 at 7:56 pm
#33 Yell0w Ve$ts Canada on 04.03.19 at 6:49 pm
BANNED

Hard to say if this individual is representative of the movement. Suffice to say, they are a force to be reckoned with.

You do not see it in the HOLIER than THOU N. American main stream media but the Yellow Vests are still protesting in Paris on weekends (thank God, they have in general stopped trashing it):

Funny thing you mentioned that every monday i fire up my twitter feed at work with my coworkers and we start with questions, are yello wests steel doing it over the weekend.

Media, internet giants are [email protected]#&+ bastiges, but on a good note its only 12yrs left so in a sense it doesn’t matter…

https://youtu.be/jUvv5ofa2YI

#43 An honest question on 04.03.19 at 8:25 pm

DELETED

#44 Tony on 04.03.19 at 8:29 pm

When you see teardowns and rebuilds up for sale in Markham (ALL of which look identical) you know the top end of the real estate market is shot.

#45 Dolce Vita on 04.03.19 at 8:31 pm

#39 Dolce Vita about #33 Yell0w Ve$ts Canada on 04.03.19 at 6:49 pm
BANNED

Banned for vulgarity, racism and violence. He followed with a personal email threat to me. The RCMP on Vancouver Island are aware. – Garth

—————————————

Good Lord Garth.

On my own behalf, you’re amazing at what you put up with let alone at what you have accomplished in life and the financial life line of sound advice you provide everyday Canadians with at no cost.

Little did I know (suspected), there is a cost to it to you.

I have called you the Unsinkable Garth on many an occasion, tonight that kudos is more than deserved.

How do you do it?

Never stop being who and what you are Garth for the sake of the rest of us that look to your Blog for some great advice with some great humour mixed in.

Ciao Garth.

#46 Fiendish Thingy on 04.03.19 at 8:39 pm

@ #6 Deplorable Dude-

Cool story about Nanaimo, bro

Meanwhile, VIREB stats show detached sales down almost 25% YOY (the 4% drop Garth mentioned was for all categories combined), prices down a teensy smidge, and sales to listing ratio down as well.

I’m watching new listings come up daily, very few sales…data beats anecdotes every time.

#47 Mr Canada on 04.03.19 at 8:48 pm

The City of Toronto is like an opioid addict – land transfer taxes were introduced in 2008 and have grown to a cool $800 million a year in revenue, thanks to the booming real estate market.

Like Vancouver, the socialists at Toronto City Hall have for too long used windfall revenue from the real estate market to keep property taxes unrealistically low. It’s a financial crisis that will soon hit the fan. Municipal taxes in Toronto are roughly 1/3 lower than surrounding municipalities, but if you buy a house, you pay the tax twice. Nothing like Tax on a Tax.

Purchase a $2 million home in downtown Toronto, boom – $72,000 tax! Buy the same $2 million home in nearby Oakville, you pay just $36,475 in tax! Talk about market distortion.

With real estate sales activity dropping, and rent controls firmly in place, the socialists will be looking under rocks for more money, and the house “rich” & cash “poor” citizens of Toronto will no doubt pay more.

#48 Dolce Vita on 04.03.19 at 8:58 pm

#42 NoName

Interesting that you fire up Twitter on Monday since the Yellow Vests protest on Saturday’s, FYI. ;-)

Ya, I here you on the 12 years we have left on the Planet. Good one.

You’ll enjoy this by @manny_ottawa, Mulroney’s former Lawyer about the history of Chicken Little pronouncements (Henny Penny in the US):

https://twitter.com/manny_ottawa/status/1112465438032551936

He also claims that Canada’s Boreal Forest trees must be asleep at the wheel when it comes to mopping up CO2 from the atmosphere:

https://twitter.com/manny_ottawa/status/1112848569558429696

As a Lefty, I have a keen appreciation for what the Right comes up with.

Most of it entertaining, add sardonic in the case @manny_ottawa.

#49 45north on 04.03.19 at 8:59 pm

So, here’s the news (besides the abduction – they caught the guys). Last month two houses sold for more than two million, leaving the other ninety-odd languishing on the market. So if you’re one of the sellers, you could be waiting ten years for a buyer to come along. This is a stark reminder that the mighty GTA real estate market is every bit as wobbly, unstable and corrupted as that of Van and the LM.

Of course if you leveraged this property (like everyone does) the losses would be amplified.

if you leveraged the property, you’re not going to make this up in 10 years. Like people did in the 1990’s. I grew up in Toronto in the 1950’s and 1960’s. I’d say that the drop in real estate is going to wipe up the middle class. Or at least, a lot of them.

Funny, that the most important thing happening, doesn’t make the news.

#50 Briana on 04.03.19 at 9:01 pm

So you agree Garth there is mega corrupt global money boosting prices in GTA. Or people that hide their earnings overseas and pay little to nothing in income taxes. The hardworking tax paying citizen cannot afford to buy or rent in their own city. This is ridiculous and must be fixed asap. Vancouver is doing the right thing in taking the market back for actual hardworking citizens and preventing foreigners and corrupt money from flowing into the market. The GTA needs to wise up and learn from Vancouver! It is widely known Canada is a perfect place to launder and invest corrupt/criminal money to the detriment of hardworking people here. This is a catastrophe that governments have ignored far too long and must be addressed asap.

Nope. No effect on overall GTA market. – Garth

#51 Ronaldo on 04.03.19 at 9:16 pm

#35 DQ

SFD houses were barely affordable based on local incomes 10-15 years ago. Since then they went up something ridiculous like 400%.
—————————————————————–
As an example a house that was purchased in Mt Pleasant area (a tear down basically) for $875 mil in summer of 2008 sold in December 2016 for $1.85 mil with nothing done to it. Increase of 1 million or 114%. in 8 years. I would expect that the value today would be a couple hundred grand less and that would be reflected in the land value since the house value itself is less than 150 grand. What skewed the average prices on these teardowns is that once they tore the original house down and built the McMansion the price jumped to around 3.5 mil for the new build. Huge profits made.

#52 DON on 04.03.19 at 9:16 pm

#12 DaleFromCalgary on 04.03.19 at 4:43 pm

#2 (Dave): Don’t blame the oil companies for Vancouver’s gasoline prices. Thank the provincial Dippers and federal Liberals for the carbon taxes, which will do nothing for the environment.
****************

In BC it was the BC Liberals (coalition of Socreds, Liberals, and Conservatives).

#53 ImGonnaBeSick on 04.03.19 at 9:18 pm

#40 50 YEARS OF MAPLE LEAF INCOMPETENCE! on 04.03.19 at 8:05 pm

I’ve gotta just say, this guy is fast becoming my favourite commenter.

#54 Dolce Vita on 04.03.19 at 9:23 pm

LAST POST Garth I promise.

Many are complaining at what or where Rosedale’s Chrystia Freeland has been doing/is in light of China holding some of our citizens captive and their banning of Canola & seed.

Criticism and correctly from W. Canadian farmers posting on Twitter and of course, @manny_ottawa and Ezra Levant – whom as ardent Righty’s simply cannot resist throwing in as well.

BUT ALAS, the watchful Nineteen Eighty-Four Orwellian eye of Uncle Sam knows what she has been up to recently:

https://buffalochronicle.com/2019/04/02/chrystia-freeland-is-angling-to-succeed-trudeau-as-prime-minister/

Trudeau just bounced 2 capable women from the Liberal Caucus.

Can the Night of the Long Knives be that far away, Et tu, Brute? The Liberal Elite will ultimately decide (Bronfman et. al.).

Parting justice for Trudeau to be bounced from Liberal leadership by a capable woman. I can dream can’t I?

What a country! This time I mean Uncle Sam.

#55 Paul on 04.03.19 at 9:29 pm

#45 Dolce Vita on 04.03.19 at 8:31 pm
#39 Dolce Vita about #33 Yell0w Ve$ts Canada on 04.03.19 at 6:49 pm
BANNED

Banned for vulgarity, racism and violence. He followed with a personal email threat to me. The RCMP on Vancouver Island are aware. – Garth
————————————————————————————————
Hey Garth
Can we get two investigations for the price of one?
Give them Justin’s name aswell they can be cell mates.

#56 Lillooet, BC on 04.03.19 at 9:33 pm

Hi Shawn Allen: still think Notely will won another majority?

#57 The Most Interesting West Coast Conspiracy Theorist in the World on 04.03.19 at 9:36 pm

Just sold below 2011 purchase price!! 1122 Highland Drive, West Vancouver Bought new in 2011 for $6,500,000 (incl. HST) Just sold for $6,150,000 2018 Assessed: $6,458,000 2017 Assessed: $7,553,000.

KABOOM! $1,150,000 loss (+ expenses)! 1305 KINGS AVENUE, West Vancouver Bought 2016 $3,300,000 Just sold for $2,185,000 2018 Assessed: $3,376,000 2017 Assessed: $2,995,000

Original asking price was clearly way off… clearly not enough eights.. 1417 Chartwell Drive, West Vancouver Was asking $15,998,000 Now asking $8,888,000 2018 Assessed: $9,808,000

#58 Jane Seagram-Wallace on 04.03.19 at 10:04 pm

DELETED

#59 dr talc on 04.03.19 at 10:05 pm

the david miller Land transfer tax in 416 killed the upgrade market
the Jeramey rudin B20 stress test killed the possibility of
that traditional upgrade market ever coming back to life.

http://www.wwf.ca/about_us/experts/davidmiller.cfm

#60 Ustabe on 04.03.19 at 10:14 pm

As Olive Garden is to Italian food so too is the Canadian Yellow Vest “movement” to the French Yellow Vests.

Bunch of bags of hate who can no longer see their toes in the shower.

#61 Pete on 04.03.19 at 10:34 pm

RE Prices have not really started adjusting noticeably yet. Economy is still exceeding expectations, employment % is high, and the bank of home equity is still paying interest on loans. Wait until the recession hits, then talk.

#62 gattu on 04.03.19 at 10:37 pm

#14 Hanny Elsayed

Excellent data and charting, bravo! Cuts through noisy monthly headlines. For Toronto condos, the active listings chart explains why prices haven’t pulled back yet, and where active listings need to get to for those (like me), hoping for a correction.

#63 Ustabe on 04.03.19 at 10:45 pm

Regarding the Buffalo Chronicle dot com site that has popped up here of late.

Most of this is from a tweet posted by Justin Ling if you need to check my math.

It doesn’t have bylines (naming the reporters who break the story), the company behind it, “The Buffalo Chronicle Media Group”, isn’t actually registered in New York, and is in fact registered anonymously.

And the most compelling evidence to me (which admittedly, is probably the weakest), but the incredibly unnatural wording where the site refers to Jodie Wilson-Raybould as “leader of the Justice Ministry.”. Nobody does that! Not even a millennial.

Also, they’re reporting such incredibly believable stories like the NDP is lobbying for Jodie Wilson-Raybould to become NDP Leader. Maybe I could see crossing the aisle, and switching parties. But leadership?

At the very best, it’s a tabloid. But more realistically, it’s just a site that makes up stories to get clicks and ad-revenue. And at worst, it’s foreign disinformation posing as a news website. I’d find it very unsurprising to find it is tied up with the alt right misinformation campaigns out of the States…Jacob Wohl and all that band of grifters.

In this day and age of labeling everything we disagree with as fake news…this site definitely is fake news.

#64 Shawn Allen on 04.03.19 at 11:02 pm

Notley to Win?

#56 Lillooet, BC on 04.03.19 at 9:33 pm

Hi Shawn Allen: still think Notely will won another majority?

**************************************
Not sure I said majority but I did say quite a while back that I thought she might or would win again.

Now, it does not look that way.

She gets the blame for what lower oil prices and federal inability on pipelines did to the Alberta economy.

I think she could tout more what she did in raising the price of Western Canadian Select from lows around $15 to current $54 due to her mandated production cut backs and plans to ship oil by rail. Also some progress on refineries and petro chemical plants via subsidies.

I suppose most people don’t like the carbon tax. But feds would impose it anyhow.

Recent promises like $25 per day daycare may be too socialist for this province. And something about free drugs for seniors making less than $75k. Seriously? $75k?

One analyst said Kenney will win by telling “believable lies” or perhaps that could be called making promises that he can’t keep (like get rid of equalization).

But maybe Kenney deserves his shot at the job.

Including and since 2015 there been a number of shocking election results. Notley. Trudeau. Trump.

I look forward to something interesting on April 16th.

The people will have their say…

#65 The Smokanagan on 04.03.19 at 11:04 pm

Listings are languishing in the south Okanagan. Lots of houses being taken off market and relisted lower a day or two later. Nothing is being snapped up anymore.

#66 the Jaguar on 04.03.19 at 11:23 pm

Speaking of housing, the Jaguar likes the house addition photo and the flagstone patio area. The two chairs seemingly face west in homage to the great province of Alberta where Rachel will re-elected in a few short weeks and where the media will once again retreat to their inner sanctums to ponder how and why they got it so very wrong. The exterior colour is somewhere in between Khaki and Sage. Likely a Benjamin Moore colour. From their historical palette, maybe… I note the absence of any special place where fluffy dogs might lie about, but no doubt an explanation exists. Seems like the perfect spot to enjoy the sunset, enjoy a glass of Wild Turkey, and count ones blessings.

#67 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.04.19 at 12:00 am

In Vancouver gas is $1.60 per liter….WTF

When oil was at $140, that was the excuse to rip off everyone. Now its at $60, taxes, greed and the legacy of Standard Oil live on.
———–
Dave,
You can fight back.
Trade in your F-150 for a Fit.

#68 Half Full on 04.04.19 at 1:36 am

In my Nanaimo neighbourhood, SF homes have doubled in price in 5 years. Prices may have dipped a bit, but I regret not buying some time in those past years. Was waiting for a correction then. Instead, the current drops in value will still leave me paying $200K + more than what I could have paid. And no, in absolute numbers, my portfolio and money saved as a renter does not come close to that. I’ve lost well over $150K by waiting for this yet to be seen correction. Frustrated and disappointed.

#69 Smoking Man on 04.04.19 at 3:46 am

Too funny.

Those Hollywood parents paying money to get their kids into collage.

That’s how stupid actors are. T2 is all I’m saying. They never wrote shit to prove they have a brain. Memorize regurgite on demand with corresponding facial expressions.

They have no idea abour communists , they want their kids in a cult that will be trained to murder there parents at some point in time. A hypnosis key word is all that it will take.

Universities are biggest con of the century.

Knowledge is free on the internet. Obedance certificates well that’s going to cost you.

#70 Smoking Man on 04.04.19 at 3:56 am

If ever post something on here with perfect grammar and spelling, it’s a good sign, I’m hammered out of my mind.

Nothing thrills me more than having the over school missing the message and attacking a dilibratly missed placed comma.

Dr Smoking Man
PhD Herdonomucs

#71 Howard on 04.04.19 at 4:16 am

#17 Shawn Allen on 04.03.19 at 5:20 pm
Oil Prices could go over $100 per barrel…

Well, in Canadian dollars…

We are at U.S. $62.46 for WTI. And Western Canadian Select is not so far behind at $54.24 (You’re Welcome!… says the NDP)

That’s already $83 Canadian for WTI and $72 for Western Canadian Select.

To get to Canadian $100 for WTI, we just need U.S. $75 or the Canadian dollar to fall to 62 cents (which some predict – but seems unlikely)

————————————–

And yet, oil sands companies are STILL priced for bankruptcy! Such is the damage committed by T2 who will go down in history as Canada’s worst PM ever.

Big credit goes to Rachel Notley though. She was dealt a unlucky hand but has managed it well. I think the Alberta election will be a lot closer than people think. There will be no blowout for the UCP.

#72 Howard on 04.04.19 at 4:29 am

#9 konijr on 04.03.19 at 4:36 pm
Has anyone else noticed how Harper and Obama aged quickly while in office. Trudeau and Trump still look the same.

JWR and Dr. JP should go over to the NDP. Tank the way they do in sports and next election either of them is a party leader. Poor Jag, he could use that media attention to drum up support.

——————————————

Trudeau and Trump both take a dozen vacations a year and have always had servants and fixers doing the heavy lifting. Their stress levels must be low as well – narcissists never have self-doubt.

It’s actually really interesting to see how similar the two are. I often compared Trudeau to George W. Bush – a dimwitted trust fund son of a former leader who coasted through life with nothing to show for the privilege handed to him. But GWB didn’t seem to have narcissistic tendencies, unlike Trudeau/Trump.

#73 NoName on 04.04.19 at 4:37 am

If you are doing it condo you ate doing it wrong, or you just sick at the math…

DEFINITELY PRESS PLAY !!!

https://youtu.be/1ZZrAdNoXB8

#74 Jacob Worth on 04.04.19 at 4:40 am

I read the news every day. Trudeaus idiocy is giving even the most tainted and biased media a run for its money. This has to be the end for Justin, when even the most narrow fanatics who supported him are hard pressed for anything good to say about him. The local business community has given up on him, as have international investors. His Harper Hate propaganda goons, like the Rockefellers have cut him off financially. The shrill liars and activists are unusually quiet. Remember, not long ago when Trudeau Feminists were defending ISIS torture in the name of Justin when he was terrorizing women when his groping looked like it might become a police matter. Now leaders are fed up, telling Canadians that Liberals have done just about everything wrong a government could do.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-the-energy-hungry-world-isnt-waiting-for-canada/

#75 Gravy Train on 04.04.19 at 6:48 am

#70 Smoking Man on 04.04.19 at 3:56 am
“Nothing thrills me more than having the [overschooled] missing the message and attacking a [deliberately misplaced] comma.” You lose credibility when you misspell words in your diatribes. No one takes you seriously—unless that’s what you’re going for: being a clown. :)

#76 Buy? Curious? on 04.04.19 at 6:54 am

DELETED

#77 Captain Uppa on 04.04.19 at 7:00 am

Buy a home for your family, invest the rest in 60/40 portfolio and keep investing.

All these amateur wannabe RE moguls who speculate and flip have always been playing with fire. It’s the equivalent of borrowing against your home or other assets to buy one single stock.

#78 Darren Shotz on 04.04.19 at 7:01 am

Foreign influence in 2015 proves why Gerry Butts resigned early, and proves why Rockefeller Foundation has pulled the funding plug on Trudeau. They can’t do it again and there’s every possibility the glaring anger of Canadians will finally rise and burn these instigators, malcontents and traitors working on behalf of American hate groups wanting to keep Trudeau as a puppet while they used Canada’s reputation to initiate Soros mass migration and climate change fanatics working for green carpet baggers. Trudeau is right in the middle of this. Vivienne shows how the Trudeau Foundation received millions from foreign lobbyists. Guilty, guilty as hell!?.

https://calgaryherald.com/news/national/new-report-alleges-outside-influence-in-canadas-2015-federal-election/

Vivienne Krausse has been right all along and the media has ignored her facts. George Soros owned Tides, the Canadian proxy of Move On.Org that attacked Harper with over 300 million dollars ( read the reports) because Harper said NO to the UN mass migration program. Harper protected Canada but could not protect himself from Canadian media including CBC that ran a 18 month Hate Harper propaganda smear campaign paid for by George Soros and the “Resistance” partners in Obama, Biden and Clinton.

You claim George Soros paid for deliberately slanted CBC election coverage? How’s the weather on your planet? – Garth

#79 expat on 04.04.19 at 7:54 am

In 12 years when the world ends due to climate change, who goes to jail for fraud when it doesn’t?

#80 maxx on 04.04.19 at 8:02 am

@ #9

The only way to oust the buffoon and his retinue of bobble-headed fools is to vote strategically.

Anything else just keeps it in power, destroying Canada economically, its reputation and its prospects.

We deserve much better.

The brave young women in parliament cast their vote yesterday.

#81 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.04.19 at 8:09 am

@#67 Ponzie Plot
“You can fight back.
Trade in your F-150 for a Fit.”

****
Eco-warriors to the rescue …Hurray!
More uninformed gibbering from the eco warrior.
Pray tell ponzie.
How does a tradesman with a truck full of material stuff all their tools, material and a 6ft ladder into a Honda Fit?
Oh, right.
We’ll all just take the Skytrain.
Yeesh.

#82 not 1st on 04.04.19 at 8:11 am

Banned for vulgarity, racism and violence. He followed with a personal email threat to me. The RCMP on Vancouver Island are aware. – Garth

——

A renter I was trying to evict 10 yrs ago did the same thing to me on email. I notified the police and they told me they cant do anything until he does something. Eventually I had the bailiff forcefully remove him and his 4 yr old son from my suite (after squatting in it for 5 months) and learned a critical lesson about never being a landlord every again.

RCMP are pretty impotent in these cases. This guy seems pretty persistent though, banned post every night.

#83 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.04.19 at 8:16 am

@#60 Ustabe
“bags of hate who can no longer see their toes in the shower….”
****

Good one.
At least we can identify them in a crowd wearing the XXXL yellow vests.

#84 not 1st on 04.04.19 at 8:23 am

Here is how Notley could win the election in a heartbeat;

1. Remove her anti oil advisors
2. Scrap the provincial carbon tax
3. Promise referendum on equalization
4. Promise to go to war on Trudeau

Kenny warts and all is offering something vastly different that people want. Ab wants a fight and they want a fighter in there against Trudeaus cabal. Its the first step to getting off their knees. She hasn’t shown that quality.

#85 not 1st on 04.04.19 at 8:32 am

Canadian banks are about to have their Apple moment

https://leaderpost.com/opinion/greg-feller-canadian-banks-are-about-to-have-their-apple-moment/wcm/52dd674b-53ec-4755-9fb6-9bdd459c1200

“Because success is not assured. Other sectors — such as media, retail, the taxi industry and many more — have already been disrupted. I would argue that the Canadian banking sector is the next in line for a massive disruption brought on by digital innovation in financial technology. When the dust settles, some Canadian banks could find themselves looking a lot less like Amazon and a lot more like Sears.”

#86 ole Doberman on 04.04.19 at 8:49 am

Looks like Vancity and most of Canada is playing out like london RE:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/real-estate/london-property-market-2/

#87 Sad, sad, world on 04.04.19 at 8:51 am

re: #73 No Name

That is a very very sad example of capitalism. The creation of homelessness with risk to families in the communities, and taxpayers by driving people out of the most basic housing into homelessness where the burden will be on the taxpayers, hospitals and police departments. Is that the business model?

#88 dharma bum on 04.04.19 at 9:15 am

DELETED

#89 JB on 04.04.19 at 9:59 am

#21 espressobob on 04.03.19 at 5:41 pm

Condos were designing decades age for seniors looking for new digs without all the headaches like snow removal, landscaping crap and maintenance issues. Retirement stuff. Dump the house.

Those units were sizable unlike what is going on currently, and paid in full with cash.

Who in their right mind carries a mortgage for a an apartment in the sky for the rest of their lives?
……………………………………………………………….
Dumb baby boomers, that’s who! Their mortgage plus fees, plus special assessments! We will wait until they croak and then the feeding frenzy will start with worthless properties 100 metres in the sky.

#90 jess on 04.04.19 at 10:04 am

“Google profits [from] my daughter’s murder, and I’m not going to stand for that,” Andy Parker told Out in the Open host Piya Chattopadhyay.

Soon after Alison’s death, footage of the shooting spread across YouTube, which is owned by Google. Conspiracy theorists used the video to argue that the shooting was a hoax designed to whip up support for stricter gun control laws.

Advertisements have been removed from these videos, but Parker believes Google still has potential revenue streams from the user data of people watching or uploading them.

Parker argues that the longer YouTube is able to keep people watching this hoax-related content, the more money it makes off his daughter’s death.

Is Trump is a troll not a god

..Sarah Huckabee Sanders says God wanted Trump to be president …
https://www.tennessean.com/story/…/sarah-huckabee…says-god…trump…/273420600…

Jan 31, 2019 –
Sarah Huckabee Sanders says God wanted Trump to be president. She’s not the only one who believes that.
https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/religion/2019/01/31/sarah-huckabee-sanders-says-god-wanted-donald-trump-president/2734206002/

Fighting conspiracy theorists

…In the case of Parker’s daughter Alison, conspiracy theories have alleged that there was no shooting, it was all faked and that Alison had plastic surgery and moved to Israel. Parker has been accused of being a “crisis actor,” merely playing the role of a grieving father.
=========

The initial goal of the organization was to end the continued harassment and intentional torment of the victim’s families, who suffered abuse and additional anguish after being targeted by online hoax and hate purveyors. As additional mass-casualty events occurred, and the families of other victims similarly became targets, and reached out for help, the organization mission expanded to include them. Today the HONR Network mission has evolved even further to provide guidance and a network of support for all affected by online harassment, hate campaigns and victimization, to provide education for professionals dealing with the effects of harassment in the workplace and on campuses, and to provide policy assistance for online platforms and legislators seeking to make the internet a safer, more inclusive place for all.

https://www.honrnetwork.org/

He has received messages from trolls telling him, “I loved watching your daughter die.”

#91 PastThePeak on 04.04.19 at 10:44 am

#78 Darren Shotz on 04.04.19 at 7:01 am

You claim George Soros paid for deliberately slanted CBC election coverage? How’s the weather on your planet? – Garth
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Yeah, no Liberal needs to *pay* for biased/slanted coverage by the CBC. That comes with the taxpayer subsidy…

How do you pay for news? Give your head a shake. – Garth

#92 n1tro on 04.04.19 at 10:44 am

#85 not 1st on 04.04.19 at 8:32 am
Canadian banks are about to have their Apple moment

https://leaderpost.com/opinion/greg-feller-canadian-banks-are-about-to-have-their-apple-moment/wcm/52dd674b-53ec-4755-9fb6-9bdd459c1200

“Because success is not assured. Other sectors — such as media, retail, the taxi industry and many more — have already been disrupted. I would argue that the Canadian banking sector is the next in line for a massive disruption brought on by digital innovation in financial technology. When the dust settles, some Canadian banks could find themselves looking a lot less like Amazon and a lot more like Sears.”
————————
The conclusion of the author is dumb. It relies on disruptions in other industries applying to Canadian banks even though they make billions in profit each years since forever. Amazon has been losing millions since it was created and only making money now from their cloud services unit. Sears was poorly managed for years and was milked for its worth by the majority owner. Neither of which applies to Canadian banks which has their claws in global markets as a source of income.

The only thing that could disrupt the banks is crypto. But we all know the response from the oligopoly don’t we? Negative press, regulation, and FUD until they make their own crypto that is.

#93 Shawn Allen on 04.04.19 at 10:54 am

Alberta Election

#84 not 1st on 04.04.19 at 8:23 am
Here is how Notley could win the election in a heartbeat;

1. Remove her anti oil advisors
2. Scrap the provincial carbon tax
3. Promise referendum on equalization
4. Promise to go to war on Trudeau

Kenny warts and all is offering something vastly different that people want. Ab wants a fight and they want a fighter in there against Trudeaus cabal. Its the first step to getting off their knees. She hasn’t shown that quality.

**********************************
I agree on war with Trudeau and remove anti-oil advisors.

Equalization seems misunderstood. No province pays into it. It is just Federal tax dollars spent unequally.

What of the federal tax revenues from large Alberta-based companies owned largely by non-Albertans? Does that represent money from Alberta or money from the non-resident owners? It was the owners that invested the money to make the earnings that are taxed.

But you are absolutely right. A pointless Alberta referendum on equalization would sell well and could win an election. Politicians just need to sell their souls and tell the people what they want to hear. Sadly, fiction beats truth in elections.

#94 Not 1st on 04.04.19 at 11:02 am

Canada will be back to sunny days when we punt the juvenile virtue signaling do nothing divisive identity garbage that is the Trudeau liberals. Canada is basket case banana republic and the world is eating our lunch.

https://business.financialpost.com/commodities/as-canada-dithers-the-u-s-approved-3-oil-pipelines-to-carry-2-4m-bpd-by-2020

Anyone who types ‘virtue signalling’ deserves ridicule. – Garth

#95 Pareto on 04.04.19 at 11:14 am

JB
You must be a millennial because I do not know any other uneducated group would engage in a feeding frenzy on something worthless but them. While your waiting I will sell you some Bre-X shares, I heard they struck it rich with a lithium mine in Indonesia, better get in quick.

#96 Ronaldo on 04.04.19 at 11:17 am

#68 Half Full on 04.04.19 at 1:36 am
In my Nanaimo neighbourhood, SF homes have doubled in price in 5 years. Prices may have dipped a bit, but I regret not buying some time in those past years. Was waiting for a correction then. Instead, the current drops in value will still leave me paying $200K + more than what I could have paid. And no, in absolute numbers, my portfolio and money saved as a renter does not come close to that. I’ve lost well over $150K by waiting for this yet to be seen correction. Frustrated and disappointed.
————————————————————
Am surprised that you would have been waiting for a correction 5 years ago when the house prices had been flat basically since 2009. Construction came to a halt after the GFC and didn’t start up until about 4 years later. You had 5 years of good buying opportunity.

#97 PFFT on 04.04.19 at 11:32 am

@#81 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.04.19 at 8:09 am
@#67 Ponzie Plot
“You can fight back.
Trade in your F-150 for a Fit.”

****
Eco-warriors to the rescue …Hurray!
More uninformed gibbering from the eco warrior.
Pray tell ponzie.
How does a tradesman with a truck full of material stuff all their tools, material and a 6ft ladder into a Honda Fit?
Oh, right.
We’ll all just take the Skytrain.
Yeesh.
_____________________

point is vast majority of F150 drivers don’t use them for anything other than commuting.

#98 PFFT on 04.04.19 at 11:35 am

@#63 Ustabe on 04.03.19 at 10:45 pm
Regarding the Buffalo Chronicle dot com site that has popped up here of late.

Most of this is from a tweet posted by Justin Ling if you need to check my math.

It doesn’t have bylines (naming the reporters who break the story), the company behind it, “The Buffalo Chronicle Media Group”, isn’t actually registered in New York, and is in fact registered anonymously.

And the most compelling evidence to me (which admittedly, is probably the weakest), but the incredibly unnatural wording where the site refers to Jodie Wilson-Raybould as “leader of the Justice Ministry.”. Nobody does that! Not even a millennial.

Also, they’re reporting such incredibly believable stories like the NDP is lobbying for Jodie Wilson-Raybould to become NDP Leader. Maybe I could see crossing the aisle, and switching parties. But leadership?

At the very best, it’s a tabloid. But more realistically, it’s just a site that makes up stories to get clicks and ad-revenue. And at worst, it’s foreign disinformation posing as a news website. I’d find it very unsurprising to find it is tied up with the alt right misinformation campaigns out of the States…Jacob Wohl and all that band of grifters.

In this day and age of labeling everything we disagree with as fake news…this site definitely is fake news.
_________________________

yup, on par with zerohedge, investmentwatch and brietbart. conspiracy trash

#99 RyYYZ on 04.04.19 at 11:39 am

#47 Mr Canada on 04.03.19 at 8:48 pm

Like Vancouver, the socialists at Toronto City Hall have for too long used windfall revenue from the real estate market to keep property taxes unrealistically low. It’s a financial crisis that will soon hit the fan. Municipal taxes in Toronto are roughly 1/3 lower than surrounding municipalities, but if you buy a house, you pay the tax twice. Nothing like Tax on a Tax.
==================================

And this is why I don’t support, at least not right away, provincial funding for transit (or whatever) in Toronto. I live in Hamilton. I probably pay higher property taxes than some in Toronto, despite much lower property values. I pay through the nose for gas, registration, insurance for my car so that I can drive to work. Nobody’s offering me a major subsidy for the cost of my commute (which is only to Burlington, I’m not driving back and forth to Toronto). I’m sure some of you are now thinking “the roads you drive on are subsidized”. True, although offset partially by the amount of tax I pay on gasoline, and registration for my car. Also, even those who don’t drive benefit from the roads. Toronto would shrivel up and die in no time if it wasn’t for the flow of supplies (and people) into the city on these roads, and would choke on its own garbage without those same roads to ship their garbage out on. I’m sick of hearing Torontonians brag up the amenities of living in the city but expecting someone else to pay for them. Great, so you don’t even need a car because you have good transit. I guess you can afford to be taxed some of that money you’re not spending on a car to pay for some of that transit.

#100 Darren Shotz on 04.04.19 at 11:49 am

#78 Garth, George Soros, through Tides, his proxy for Move On.org is proven to have funded millions in false advertising through every Canadian media organization.

You or I or anyone can have a publicist call up CBC tomorrow through and through that publicist run a full page ad on Ice Age Ass Cream being discovered erupting from a dead mammoths arse, you know that as well as anyone with experience in media. Are the CBC Power Panels really independent journalists offering unbiased observations on your planet? Was it a coincidence that CBC’s 24/7 coverage of Mike Duffy’s hemmeroids and housing debacle stopped five minutes after the election of Trudeau’s Soros backed Liberals?

The CBC accepts ads they don’t write and places them in rotation for compensation, as George Soros did while funding the Hate Harper Campaign after Harper told the UN to blow it up their arses after they demanded Canada become a puppet state of the political left.

The tax records of George Soros proxy Tides and everyone who accepted American money to circumvent Canada’s election laws are a matter of public information, read the investigative results from Vivienne Krause and the several other agencies that track such things.

Read the reports. And thx, sunny and fine on Planet X.

#101 mike from mtl on 04.04.19 at 11:51 am

#85 not 1st on 04.04.19 at 8:32 am

Canadian banks are about to have their Apple moment
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Ridiculous, the sisters are under no big threat from this, bit coin or others. AppleCard which I personally don’t see any advantage they offer over rebranded Visa, amex, or Master, besides it is backed by Wells anyway. So it is not like a totally new solution.

Quite literally every transaction done in this country passes by them in one way or another, think chequing, wire transfers, and so on. Corporate banking is nearly 100% them. That’s a hell of a big moat.

Now the mortgage business, that’s a cash cow.

#102 Bottoms_Up on 04.04.19 at 12:26 pm

Ottawa’s market is on fire. Got a flyer in the mail, average DoM of 6 days. Bidding wars, houses going over asking.

A flyer. From a realtor. Wow. – Garth

#103 Captain Uppa on 04.04.19 at 12:29 pm

>>How do you pay for news? Give your head a shake. – Garth>>

Not that I care for this debate, but Zuckerberg sure knows how to pay for news.

Link – https://nypost.com/2019/04/03/facebook-reportedly-paying-british-newspaper-for-positive-sponsored-articles/

#104 Crazyfox on 04.04.19 at 1:01 pm

#100 Darren Shotz on 04.04.19 at 11:49 am

Sorry, without evidence, there is no smoking gun. You go on about ads, but the CBC doesn’t advertise in Radio and doesn’t prostitute themselves with TV. Their stories on climate change have nothing to do with Soros, its because its news. You gotta stop believing everything Alex Jones says man. Just because it comes from media designed for profit, y’know, like Disney or Hollywood or media pundits cashing in on hype, doesn’t make it true.

Why are some folks out there so easily led… uneducated? Incapable of processing motive? Simple? Is it really that obvious? I suppose it is.

#105 Mr. White on 04.04.19 at 1:17 pm

Part of the problem with so much easy credit is that people in their 20’s and 30’s think a million bucks is chump change.

Maybe we should go back to all transactions happening in currency. Schlepping around a million bucks in Looneys will remind us all that a million is a lot of anything.

#106 James on 04.04.19 at 1:25 pm

#75 Gravy Train on 04.04.19 at 6:48 am

#70 Smoking Man on 04.04.19 at 3:56 am
“Nothing thrills me more than having the [overschooled] missing the message and attacking a [deliberately misplaced] comma.” You lose credibility when you misspell words in your diatribes. No one takes you seriously—unless that’s what you’re going for: being a clown. :)
____________________________________________
Definitely a clown with a PhD in clownery I might add. He must have excelled at Clown College. Straight E’s & F’s.

<(:)+<

That was the first thing I though as well, the Old Man is on a tear and into the JD.
Oh his wife must love punching Bozo when he is loaded, he goes down and just comes back for more.

#107 Cottingham a bargain on 04.04.19 at 2:04 pm

#41 -Mohammad Omarkhail on 04.03.19 at 8:16 pm
Garth who would want to buy any house in Toronto or Markham for the price they are asking? You have to be nuts. You can get a 4000 square foot house in beatufiul Kleinburg for 1.2 million. Sheesh it’s some weird obsession to live in Toronto or Markham.
—————

And you can fish trout out of the streams and shoot caribou all you want for dinner lol.

Only 20 days on foot to the nearest corner store lol

Sucks that it takes an income of over 200k per couple to own a house.

#108 Cottingham a bargain on 04.04.19 at 2:13 pm

#41-Mohammad Omarkhail on 04.03.19 at 8:16 pm
Garth who would want to buy any house in Toronto or Markham for the price they are asking? You have to be nuts. You can get a 4000 square foot house in beatufiul Kleinburg for 1.2 million. Sheesh it’s some weird obsession to live in Toronto or Markham.
—————-

Barrie even cheaper and I hear the dogsled races are a hoot along with the fresh Canadian Shield air all good for health and longevity LMAO

#109 Not So New guy on 04.04.19 at 2:39 pm

What is the problem with 40% of the country not paying income taxes?

Might I remind you that before 1917 100% did not pay them?

#110 PastThePeak on 04.04.19 at 2:40 pm

#91 PastThePeak on 04.04.19 at 10:44 am
#78 Darren Shotz on 04.04.19 at 7:01 am

You claim George Soros paid for deliberately slanted CBC election coverage? How’s the weather on your planet? – Garth
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Yeah, no Liberal needs to *pay* for biased/slanted coverage by the CBC. That comes with the taxpayer subsidy…

How do you pay for news? Give your head a shake. – Garth
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

????? I think you missed my point.

Anyways, I pay for news through my eyeballs, through a couple of direct subscriptions, AND in the case of the CBC, through my tax dollars. Currently, it is only the CBC that is subsidized in this manner, though that will change in the near future.

Not sure what that has to do with my point about left wing bias at the CBC. Is that what you are debating?

#111 Smoking Man on 04.04.19 at 2:55 pm

Pool season is now open in Vegas. Should be there by 5pm.

Packing shorts, wife beater shirt and Walmart flip flops.
Periscope yeah! James loves my productions.

James have you met Gravey Train. You two have a lot in common.

WooHoo taken the Hunter s Thompsin Express..
Have a great day dogs…

#112 NoName on 04.04.19 at 2:56 pm

#87 Sad, sad, world on 04.04.19 at 8:51 am
re: #73 No Name

Is that the business model?

I dont know, i am not business man, i am just mediocre electrician who moonlights as macro economist, so i can’t answer that correctly, but money is definitely to be made there he knows it. Same coin different side…

Watch.
https://youtu.be/m9aTksd_W20

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/bill-set-to-boost-warren-buffetts-mobile-home-business-1520591400

#113 Lee on 04.04.19 at 3:30 pm

People could have bought Shopify today at as much as a 10% discount because Microsoft says it might be entering the space. If Shopify stock holders are lucky, Microsoft buys it for $600 CDN a share with the 250B Microsoft has in cash reserves. This is not Sino Forest-style bad news. Surprised so many people dumped Shopify. Although it has recovered a bit since mid-day trading.

#114 Moh on 04.04.19 at 3:47 pm

@Cottingham a bargain

Klienburg is in Vaughan not sure what you mean. Check the floorplans not sure if you can find a house like that in Toronto or Markham that isn’t over inflated if you do let me know.

#115 Cottingham a bargain on 04.04.19 at 5:22 pm

Moh 114.

What I mean is klienburg is cheaper for a reason. Main reason is how far it is out from the core .

#116 Steve-0 on 04.04.19 at 9:28 pm

I miss when we used to talk about REITS all the time.

#117 Darren Shotz on 04.04.19 at 10:01 pm

#104 Crazy…

https://business.financialpost.com/opinion/joe-oliver-canadas-elections-are-already-being-infiltrated-by-foreign-interests-and-shockingly-its-all-legal

People are do naive about how media works. Fact one: it’s all about money. When the Mexican govt want Canadians not to hear about a recent spike in murders they get AeroMexiclo to offer CBC, Global a multi million dollar campaign, with the provisional that no more murder stories play.

When CBC is offered millions in an ad campaign if it runs certain publicists work in heavy rotation, that’s what happens. Some people think all journalism is honest, wrong. Some people think journalists takes bribes…that’s correct. Some people don’t know that a lot if journalists ate employees of a certain rag or channel, not true, they are guns for hire , there to say what they’re told, integrity doesn’t come into it.

Bottom line, CbC, even with the motion billion dollar sure bsidy is a business with it’s hand out. If you’re shocked, it’s also shocking you’re so naive. CBC sells ad space to whomever. The Power Panels they show are independently produced and paid for by people with an agenda.

#118 Westcdn on 04.05.19 at 8:00 am

What is the difference between a globalist and a Federalist because I can’t tell. The Brexit saga has my interest as it demonstrates a political clash of the elitist status quo against a counter movement. The British people voted for change but that decision is being resisted by the ruling class. I believe PM May actively sabotaged Brexit to make it as painful as possible. Britain’s role in the European Union has similarities to Alberta in the Canadian Confederation. I take heed to what is happening to Britain.

My viewpoint of Alberta in Confederation is akin to being charged too much rent to live the basement of the Canadian house. I want to leave and rent somewhere else unless a better deal can be worked out. Hearing that we are all in this together from the upper floor just doesn’t cut it with me. However, I want a 2/3rd majority of Albertans agreeing to moving out before burning bridges. I concede Albertans have been spoiled by a recent bonanza which has given us the most expensive public services in Confederation and a divorce will be painful. I am against the status quo as is. Will the Feds enact supply management for cannabis as the US will eat our lunch when they allow a similar industry? My feeling is only if Quebec has a significant industry.

Canadian interest rates and inflation are things I watch closely. There is no doubt in my mind the global economy is slowing. Since we have hitched so much of our future in real estate, we are along for the ride. The loonie will fall. Key exports of lumber, aluminum and even canola are being blocked. Manufacturing is falling as we are uncompetitive and have a small domestic market. More debt and taxation is not a solution. My guess is with a falling loonie, a floor under current interest is in place. There will be more teaser rates to come so take advantage if you can and increase your investment exposure to the US. So says the guy who has recently bought American preferreds.

I predict Butts (afraid of a fart?) will get a UN gig and will be joined by T2. Some of their initiatives have certainly paved the way. I hope Bill ends up selling poutine in front of his villa.

#119 miketheengineer on 04.05.19 at 10:09 am

Garth et al:

Carbon Tax

Wrong tax at the wrong time, by a government that does not know what it is doing, and doesn’t care.

It is all about cash flow. If the government takes your cash, it don’t flow into the economy. The economy stops, slows and the people hurt.

Mark my words….this is bad tax. It will hurt the economy. The people who write these don’t know what they are doing. Possibly even idiots.

There are lots of opportunity to make cuts to obsolete, government activities, positions, departments etc where savings could be made. They choose not to do this. Why…? Your guess is as good as mine?

#120 dan on 04.07.19 at 7:41 am

And then there is Calgary –

Most affordable city in North America.

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/calgary-is-north-americas-most-affordable-real-estate-market-171608658.html