The spiral

You might recall reading this here three weeks ago:

“March is projecting to come in 30% below the lowest month ever in recent history, more than 50% below the average, almost 35% below last year (a bad year) and 70% below the best month. The stats are coming in even worse than an average Jan or December.”

And it even came with a chart:

That was conjecture about Vancouver’s real estate disaster in March. Now we have the facts. Not since people were humming the latest Bananarama tune have things sucked this much. Sales are collapsing. Prices are falling. Equity’s evaporating. And where are the buyers everyone thought would descend to snap up bargains once the street value of a detached house plunged by double digits? Yup. Gone. Because nobody pounces in a declining market – figuring things will get worse. Good bet.

Here’s the news: sales down month/month 31.4%. That’s 46% under the 10-year average and the worst showing since 1986. We didn’t even know what Millennials were back then. Only bikers had tats and only stoners smoked weed. What progress we’ve made!

Meanwhile listings are exploding as it dawns on homeowners that things aren’t going to improve. New listings were up 11% last month and year/year the number has grown by 52%. Buyers now have 12,774 properties to choose from, which is a seven-month supply – and the spring market just started. Of every 100 detached homes for sale last month, only 9 sold. That is a disaster. But it’s even more dramatic for condos. The sales-to-listing ratio has collapsed from over 60% a few months to 17% now. Sales lower by 35%. Even the hormone-addled moisters are giving up.

Prices? Down she goes. The benchmark Frankenumber is off almost 8% in a year. Detacheds have fallen 11% and condos about 6%. Probably just a start, since the goal of politicians in BC is to destroy home equity and artificially depress the market. To do that they have enacted the 20% foreign buyer’s tax, the anti-Alberta speculation tax, the eat-the-rich empty houses tax plus the special property tax on wealthy owners. This is atop the stress test which has reduced credit by a fifth, and hood-busting zoning changes as well as pro-tenant legislation driving off landlords.

The local real estate cartel had this to say: “What policymakers are failing to recognize is that demand-side measures don’t eliminate demand, they sideline potential home buyers in the short term. That demand is ultimately satisfied down the line because shelter needs don’t go away. Using public policy to delay local demand in the housing market just feeds disruptive cycles that have been so well-documented in our region.”

Realtors, naturally, want ever-higher sales and prices with buyers competing out of FOMO, fueled by cheap money. The result of that has been a nation so deeply and profoundly in debt that real estate values seen in 2017 may not arrive again for a generation. This moment was coming anyway as affordability eroded and people became unable to sustain stupid property values. What lefty leaders have done is accelerate and deepen the correction, threatening to turn it into a crash (that would be a 30% price drop and further steep sales declines).

Is this good because average families will buy houses?

No, that’s not how it works. As prices fall, buyers retreat. Human nature makes people crave what rises and fear what falls. In addition, a weak housing market begets a weaker economy – especially in a province where real estate’s been allowed to dominate. Realtors, drywallers, mortgage brokers, insurance guys, carpenters, bankers, electricians, builders, pavers, architects, landscape dudes – they all suffer. Confidence erodes with home values. Consumption is curtailed. Ultimately tax revenues fall, which usually means tax rates increase – especially when spendy Dippers control the levers.

Without a doubt, governments helped create this mess. Cheap money and pandering policies goosed real estate, making people think debt was okay and a one-asset strategy was all they needed. But politicians are no better at deflating this gasbag than they were controlling its cancerous growth.

Less valuable houses that people don’t buy. Was that the goal?

173 comments ↓

#1 Jesse Martin on 04.02.19 at 5:08 pm

My popcorn is ready.

#2 Chris on 04.02.19 at 5:15 pm

When is Guelph going to correct? Was just in a bidding war with 7 others, 15k over asking a top of 625k for 1600 sq feet with aluminum wiring and no permits for structural work. Glad I got my rental back at least. What say you Garth of our city with “just 2 rivers.” Seems more solid than this.

#3 Howard on 04.02.19 at 5:17 pm

Condos now falling. This is no longer simply a correction in “houses nobody could afford anyway”, as you long characterized it.

Also, rents have declined in Vancouver (slightly, but it’s a start) and the vacancy rate is ticking up. That is in accordance with the NDP’s goals. 14 students piling into $6000/month mansions is great – that’s 14 students no longer competing for the shoebox apartments or mouldy basements.

Carole James – keep at it!

#4 Linda on 04.02.19 at 5:18 pm

So, what does this mean for GTA?

#5 N on 04.02.19 at 5:20 pm

The U.S. Department of State has designated Canada a “major money laundering country” where foreign drug-trafficking gangs are exploiting weak law enforcement and soft laws. The March 2019 report, which places Canada on a short list of countries vulnerable to significant drug money laundering transactions — such as Afghanistan, the British Virgin Islands, China, Colombia and Macau — underlines a number of threats reported over the past year in Global News investigations, such as the laundering of fentanyl-trafficking proceeds from China through British Columbia casinos, real estate and underground banks.

https://globalnews.ca/news/5102137/us-canada-major-money-laundering-country/

#6 Dave on 04.02.19 at 5:20 pm

A few years ago I was laughing when people paid over $1M for a new house. That same house flipped 3 or 4 more times and hit $2.9M. Un

#7 Dave on 04.02.19 at 5:23 pm

A few years ago I was laughing when people paid over $1M for a new house in Vancouver. That same house flipped 3 or 4 more times and hit $2.9M. Unbelievable, and trust me, I was the dummy at the dinner party who wasn’t in the real estate market. Honestly felt as if the market would never ever slow down and decline.

Finally some relief, but prices are still beyond any reasonable amount.

#8 Pepe’ on 04.02.19 at 5:26 pm

“Realtors, drywallers, mortgage brokers, insurance guys, carpenters, bankers, electricians, builders, pavers, architects, landscape dudes – they all suffer.“

The above have made their money hand over fist. I wouldn’t be too concerned about them.

#9 Andrew on 04.02.19 at 5:26 pm

Bitcoin mining company out of Alberta HUT 8 (HUT on the TSXV) jumped over 26% today, it has the potential to outperform the actual asset in the next bull market. Not financial advice and I know we preach diversification here but just food for thought and interesting to keep an eye on.

#10 Yell0w Ve$ts Canada on 04.02.19 at 5:28 pm

DELETED

#11 yorkville renter on 04.02.19 at 5:28 pm

March 1986??? I was but 9 years old…. wasn’t Expo 86 in Van?

#4 Linda – charts I’ve seen show GTA trails Vancouver by 6 months, but we dont have the same new taxes so who knows. I see prices are down in Toronto proper. – homes regularly going for $100k+ below their original asking price

#12 Rub a dub on 04.02.19 at 5:29 pm

Nanaimo still not in the same tub …

http://www.vireb.com/index.php?page=20

#13 tccontrarian on 04.02.19 at 5:31 pm

“Here’s the news: sales down month/month 31.4%. That’s 46% under the 10-year average and the worst showing since 1986. We didn’t even know what Millennials were back then. Only bikers had tats and only stoners smoked weed. What progress we’ve made!”
//////////

Thanks for the laugh!

“Not since people were humming the latest Bananarama tune have things sucked this much. Sales are collapsing. Prices are falling. Equity’s evaporating. And where are the buyers everyone thought would descend to snap up bargains once the street value of a detached house plunged by double digits? Yup. Gone.”
////////

About freakin’ time I say! I love the smell of fear in the RE ‘investors’ who were oh so smug and telling me I was crazy to sell my RE (safe), and invest (so, so risky).
It’s only going to get worse; we’re now exiting the ‘denial’ phase and entering the panic phase. Gonna be …
EPIC!

TCC

#14 Remembrancer on 04.02.19 at 5:32 pm

#8 Pepe’ on 04.02.19 at 5:26 pm

The above have made their money hand over fist. I wouldn’t be too concerned about them.
———————————————
And what do you do Pepe’ that insulates you from not needing any of that crowd spending money into the economy?

#15 Wyatt on 04.02.19 at 5:34 pm

#4 Linda “So, what does this mean for GTA?”

The GTA will continue to decline in a similar manner to that of the GVA.

#16 The Wet One on 04.02.19 at 5:34 pm

This will start to matter when everyone stops spending.

Otherwise, it’s a big old “Meh.”

We all knew this was coming and here it is.

Shrug, shrug…

#17 Capt. Serious on 04.02.19 at 5:36 pm

Falling prices make borrowing trickier too. So even for those brave souls who want to buy into a market with lower prices, they may find the door shut at the bank.

#18 The HT on 04.02.19 at 5:39 pm

SFD’s drive the market. More affordable homes, townhomes, condos are beginning to follow in decline – you, Garth, have admitted this today.

The NDP action, while not perfect, is achieving thus far what was intended. We needed a sharp decline, and it appears to be well underway. Yes, this was the goal. There will be collateral damage, but the city of Vancouver was already broken. The economy was already threatened by rampant real estate speculation and the resulting bubble.

I feel for the people who will be hurt by the recession. But that is outweighed by the optimism that my family and many other middle class families will be able to remain in the place they grew up. To be able to buy a home eventually. To not be second class citizens where we were born. Bye bye money laundering, Porshe driving foreigners. Bye bye smug realtors with a fraction of my education and 10x the earnings.

Equalibrium.

#19 IHCTD9 on 04.02.19 at 5:44 pm

“Not since people were humming the latest Bananarama tune have things sucked this much.”
———-

…and I think Vancouver RE values are heading for a “Cruel Summer”.

#20 Crdt on 04.02.19 at 5:47 pm

What policymakers are failing to recognize is that demand-side measures don’t eliminate demand, they sideline potential home buyers in the short term. That demand is ultimately satisfied down the line because shelter needs don’t go away.”

Luckily the need to sell does not go away as well..

#21 Hawk on 04.02.19 at 5:47 pm

The Vacouver effect has not yet hit GTA. Maybe it will sometime this year though.

#22 Bobby Bittman on 04.02.19 at 5:53 pm

“Realtors, drywallers, mortgage brokers, insurance guys, carpenters, bankers, electricians, builders, pavers, architects, landscape dudes”

Six figure Drywallers screams bubble…lol

#23 pay your taxes on 04.02.19 at 5:55 pm

Much wailing and gnashing of teeth over the fortunes of the rich, but what calamity has befallen them? The marginal utility of the price decline is zero. It’s a paper loss that needn’t ever be realized. They will carry on as they always have, buying even more of the political process and spreading the gospel of neoconservatism.

The people I feel bad for are the ones whose fingers will slip off the edge of the cliff and cast them back down into the abyss of the working class, never to rise again. Wages won’t lift them, neither will saving their meagre income in an environment of falling interest rates. The leveraged tax free price increases are most people’s only hope of social mobility.

As for the post that claimed rent decreases and greater rental supply in Vancouver, I’d love to see a link with the proof of that statement.

#24 gfd on 04.02.19 at 5:59 pm

https://www.howestreet.com/audio/Kay_Ross_2019_04__01.mp3

#25 Derik McDeen on 04.02.19 at 6:00 pm

Need an update on JWR, Wernick and Butts. And JT.

#26 Gulf Breeze on 04.02.19 at 6:00 pm

Garth,

You are conflating international free markets and international criminal activity again. Free markets should be nurtured to a point, but criminal activity masquerading as free market activity has to be dealt with.

It’s too bad the mainstream media, fearing criticism for so many years neglected to do real reporting on international crime in Vancouver.

Had they been more responsible people who bought at or near the peak would have been much more careful.

This is a combined crisis of government corruption, journalistic reticence and an inability of many to understand that the real estate market is prone to criminal behavior when governments refuse to insist they be transparent.

#27 AGuyInVancouver on 04.02.19 at 6:00 pm

….just a start, since the goal of politicians in BC is to destroy home equity and artificially depress the market. To do that they have enacted the 20% foreign buyer’s tax, the anti-Alberta speculation tax, the eat-the-rich empty houses tax plus the special property tax on wealthy owners. This is atop the stress test which has reduced credit by a fifth, and hood-busting zoning changes as well as pro-tenant legislation driving off landlords…
_ _ _
And absolutely every one of those Canadian policy changes (as necessary as they were) had nowhere near the effect Xi Jinping’s one decision to choke off capital outflows from China, with harsh penalties for offenders.

#28 yvr_lurker on 04.02.19 at 6:04 pm

I am not concerned with the downward trend. YVR witnessed roughly 12 years of explosive gains in housing due to cheap money, rampant speculation, and huge influx of foreign cash (with untold amount of money-laundering etc…). I hope that when prices re-stabilize it is at a level that is consistent with LOCAL incomes. YVR will always be expensive, and I do not imply that someone with an average income will be able to afford a SFH in Dunbar, but it had got completely out of hand even for very high-wage earners without family trust funds. Bring it on, and keep foreign $$$ out of our local market. NDP has shown clear responsible leadership on this critical topic and I would vote for them again no problem.

#29 David Pylyp on 04.02.19 at 6:08 pm

Equity’s evaporating. And where are the buyers everyone thought would descend to snap up bargains once the street value of a detached house plunged by double digits? Yup. Gone. Because nobody pounces in a declining market – figuring things will get worse. Good bet.

Vancouver is pooched.

#30 Lost...but not leased on 04.02.19 at 6:09 pm

Garth is right…Gov’ts should have stayed out of their RE price – nuking agenda.

As a Boomer….it doesn’t affect me….our RE asset quadrupled in value in 20 years, and we bought when the market was down…..but doesn’t matter….buying at the right time in the RE cycle leaves one with a number of options in future.

The way I see it..if we chose to downsize and try the strata route(Ugghhhh) …we will be further ahead based on many of these units will be fire-saled ,given they built waayyy too many ..the equivalent of fractional reserve banking.

#31 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.02.19 at 6:11 pm

@#187 Crazyfoxonfire
” we have histrionic Scheer asking for Trudeau to resign…. over what, this? Is this the only merit needed to take political power in Canada, histrionic exaggeration of the facts or worse? Canadians deserve better than a histrionic dog and pony show. Truly. T2 will survive it and be better for it in the long game. ”

++++
And you accuse ME of being “partisan”…?
Bwahahahaha.
Pathetic.
I voted Liberal in the last election because I was disgusted at Harper’s arrogance after 10 years in office.

Trudeau’s slime has only taken 3 years ?
Never vote Liebral again while Trudeau is at the helm.
Is that partisan?
Or just disgust at the blatant corruption infesting every level of politics these days.
Political Lap dogs to the almighty Lobbyist buck.

#32 Deplorable Dude on 04.02.19 at 6:13 pm

#200 Crazyfox

“Your claim of not enough controlled burns leading to more fires is rubbish.”

A) Not my claim….

From the my linked article….”Cliff Mass, a professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Washington, told me. In fact, the wildfires are mainly due to decades of bad forestry practices – especially the suppression of burning over decades that created denser forests with a lot of debris on the ground. This has created a tremendous buildup of flammable material that normally would have burned off periodically.”

B) And you obviously didn’t read your own Weather Network Link…..

to quote……’Scientists suggest there are several reasons for the severity of the last two wildfire seasons in B.C., including a lack of controlled burning and aggressive firefighting efforts that have allowed potential fuels to build up across the province.’

“your claim that forest fires have decreased world wide is also wrong:”

Nope…here have a scientific article that shows a 25% drop in global acreage burned since 1998.

http://science.sciencemag.org/content/356/6345/1356

In the US the acreage burned has dropped 75% since the 1930’s which experienced a much higher % of days above 95 deg than we do now.

Check out the first graph for the dramatic drop in burn acerage since the 30’s

https://web.archive.org/web/20140913135647/http://www.fs.fed.us/research/sustain/criteria-indicators/indicators/indicator-316.php

R.E. Pine Beetles…..

Scientists can’t make their mind up…..apparently climate change is good for our trees….

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/climate-change-bc-forest-mountain-pine-beetle-1.3530301

#33 Djumbe on 04.02.19 at 6:22 pm

#25 both have officially been ejected

#34 js on 04.02.19 at 6:23 pm

The last “cycle” was unprecedented and lasted more than 16 years! Had the market been left alone and not “saved” after the Great Financial Crisis things might have looked way better by now. Everything in Canada is manipulated to the extent that it gets out of whack in the end!

#35 js on 04.02.19 at 6:28 pm

Less valuable houses that people don’t buy. Was that the goal?
That is the effect, not the reason and not the goal.
When the party was going and all “new millionaires” were made so due to luck and buying at the right time, no one complained!

#36 akashic record on 04.02.19 at 6:28 pm

Trudeau ejects Wilson-Raybould, Philpott from Liberal caucus.

#37 Prairieboy43 on 04.02.19 at 6:29 pm

There’s that word again. “CONFIDENCE”, important word for everyone.
PB43

#38 Bob Dog on 04.02.19 at 6:29 pm

Took a walk down Robson Street on the weekend counting the number of stores that have gone out of business. Would have been much easier to count the number of stores that were open.

It reminded me of the scenes of Flint Michigan in the movie Roger and Me. The best place on earth is looking a bit rough these days.

Condos prices have fallen as rents have skyrocketed. A mortgage is now about the same as renting.

Time to find myself a worthless parasite Realtor©™ and start bidding 30% below asking to see how desperate the speculators are.

#39 akashic record on 04.02.19 at 6:33 pm

“Former cabinet ministers will not be permitted to seek re-election under Liberal Party banner.”

Woah… Current party leader rules the future that may not hold seat for him.

Isn’t it time that the party approves who can even run under the banner?

#40 Victoria Real Estate Update on 04.02.19 at 6:33 pm

Love the realtor FOMO:

“What policymakers are failing to recognize is that demand-side measures don’t eliminate demand, they sideline potential home buyers in the short term. That demand is ultimately satisfied down the line … Using public policy to delay local demand in the housing market just feeds disruptive cycles that have been so well-documented in our region.”

Translation: It’s different here. Prices will skyrocket again soon. Buy now!

Of course the realtor cartel has failed to acknowledge that Vancouver has a housing bubble. And how did that housing bubble come into existence? That’s simple – through almost 20 years of bubble-blowing policy – lax lending standards and 10 years of near-zero rates.

Vancouver’s realtor cartel is apparently incapable of understanding the big picture – that housing bubbles generally form as a result of bubble-blowing policy that burns future housing market demand which results in years of higher than normal sales and abnormal price gains. This sets the stage for the obvious consequence – years of below average demand and falling prices as house prices revert back to their long-term price to income ratio. The inevitable is playing out nicely in Vancouver right now.

House prices in Vancouver would have fallen back to their long-term average without any policy changes. 200 years of world housing bubble history shows that all housing bubbles go through major price corrections. And Vancouver’s bubble is one of the biggest the world has seen. San Francisco’s housing bubble 2.0 is tiny in comparison to Vancouver’s ridiculously large bubble. (second chart).

Policy is likely speeding things along in Vancouver, but what’s happening there was guaranteed to happen with or without policy.

The bust half of the housing bubble boom/bust cycle never happens in a slow and controlled manner. No housing bubble in history has escaped the natural consequences of destructive bubble-blowing policy. And Vancouver’s massive bubble certainly won’t. Policy or no policy.

#41 Glenn Brewerton on 04.02.19 at 6:35 pm

Vancouver house prices could all fall 67%, and they would all still be overvalued. If you eliminate the demand that has come from illegal Chinese money, you could see demand evaporate further, and then the bid-ask spread for detached homes reach unprecedented levels. I would hate to be a realtor right now – the average realtor in Vancouver will be eating mac-n-cheese for dinner for the next 5-10 years.

#42 Howard on 04.02.19 at 6:38 pm

#19 IHCTD9 on 04.02.19 at 5:44 pm
“Not since people were humming the latest Bananarama tune have things sucked this much.”
———-

…and I think Vancouver RE values are heading for a “Cruel Summer”.

————————————————

Pretty soon, open houses on planet “Venus” will have more visitors than those in West Vancouver.

#43 IM in C on 04.02.19 at 6:39 pm

Garth. What is your take on the housing market here in Calgary

#44 Mike on 04.02.19 at 6:40 pm

.

We want a Cristy Clark back NOW !!

We want drug money laundering to make Vancouver great again!!

#45 technical analysis? on 04.02.19 at 6:41 pm

this is no different than the 1989 peak in canadian real estate. adjusted for inflation, it will be 15+ years before we see these same price levels.

#46 Mohammad on 04.02.19 at 6:49 pm

Prices have fallen since 2017 even in GTA.
@#2 Chris on 04.02.19 at 5:15 pm – Not sure what your buying for that price.

Brampton is giving 2100 Square Foot Semi on a 35 foot lot for 720K with 80k upgrades. Brick house with stone work on the front. People were buying and still are buying new builds 900k and are unsold sitting without a buyer.

Kleinbug has homes for 1.3 Million that are 46 Foot and 4000 Square Feet with 100K upgrades. Sadly people paid 1.2 million for 3100 square foot in Miltion.

Lots of new homes coming to GTA as builders are going to build in overtime.

People are camping 4 or 5 days for a new build. Thousands visiting Sales Offices.

Mattamy was selling towns starting at 540K in mount pleasent. 700K for the 2550 Square foot free hold home with a unfinished basement. Over 600 people showed up for 150 town homes.

Its going to be tough for older houses to see any growth with the way new houses are being priced at.

@Garth
Tough that you and your partner need to make about 200K a year to buy ahome. Hence why we have so many haters and dooms day wishers especially in the comment section. It will be very hard for them to accept this reality of how things have changed.

#47 The Most Interesting West Coast Conspiracy Theorist in the World o on 04.02.19 at 6:49 pm

Two high level money laundering reports on BC Real Estate are now in the hands of the NDP.

And they are moving quick on recommendations and loopholes identified as being exploited heavily in BC.

B.C. government introduces legislation to ban the practice of hiding home ownership.

This is the biggest move I have ever seen in BC Real Estate.

Government also introducing a transparency registry and making ‘bare shares’ illegal. These are part of the province’s 30 point housing plan.

This is going to hammer Vancouver, Victoria and Kelowna real estate prices.

This is the biggest can of worms to ever be opened in the history of BC Real Estate.

The real crash in BC real estate is on now.

#48 Smoking Man on 04.02.19 at 6:53 pm

Herdonomics 101

Down she goes…..

#49 Yellow Vest on 04.02.19 at 6:53 pm

BANNED

#50 I've lived out here on 04.02.19 at 6:55 pm

in the LM long enough to know better than to ever count Vancouver out. She will always be loved. But at what price?

#51 Bob Loblaw on 04.02.19 at 6:57 pm

I absolutely love reading these Van real estate tales of despair…keep em coming!

#52 Bigger Price Drops than Reported here on 04.02.19 at 7:01 pm

Saretsky was on CKNW 980 yesterday saying widespread drops across the entire lower mainland and coming to a Victoria neighborhood near you.

1 bedroom condos are down 10-12% from peak price a year ago in Vancouver.

Price declines as much as 40% down for a detached in West Vancouver.

10% correction in Langley Abbotsford, and the gap in price between East Vancouver and Fraser Valley detached closing quick.

#53 Bellingham Ernie on 04.02.19 at 7:01 pm

It’ll be awkward in the house of commons now with JP and JWR removed for caucus. What does the future hold for them?

#54 Yellow Vest on 04.02.19 at 7:03 pm

BANNED

#55 Chaddywack on 04.02.19 at 7:06 pm

Anyone else seen Trudeau’s grandstanding when he announced kicking out JWR and JP?

He’s acting like he’s Mr. Clean and these women should have known better than to raise the issues…..

Yuck. October can’t come soon enough.

#56 Ace Goodheart on 04.02.19 at 7:06 pm

Canadians still have quite a bit of land.

Most of it is owned by “The Crown”, which is a weird person to own land in a country that does not have a monarchy.

Over 80% of the land mass in Canada, which has one of the world’s largest unpopulated land areas (second only to Antarctica, which is owned by no one), is owned by this person called “The Crown”.

Other countries, are not so lucky.

For example, the world’s smallest nation exists on a formal naval tower in the English Channel. It is known as “Sealand”

https://www.sealandgov.org/

You can become a lord or a lady of this country. Just send them money. The more, the better.

Back at the end of the second world war, the UK began dismantling the various naval towers that they had built during the war to guard against the ever present threat of the German invasion across the channel.

Enter Rough’s naval tower. It was, actually by mistake, located in international waters, and rather conveniently “occupied” by persons who decided that it was a land mass and declared sovereignty over it. They later changed the territorial water limits, meaning that this tower is now technically part of the UK, but the “owners” rely on “grandfathering” of the tower to continue to assert its status as a micro nation.

Want to live there? It’s basically a helicopter pad with living quarters contained in the concrete support base. It was in not so distant history almost destroyed by a fire.

It has its own currency. It currently has a zero birth rate (yes, there are actually two countries with zero birth rates, the Vatican City, and Sealand, if you ever come across this question in a game of Trivial Pursuit).

It even has a flag.

If you can get a Visa, you might even be able to spend a few days there (contact Sir Roy’s royal family members).

Oh, JRW is toast…..backbenched and stripped of her candidacy. Her political career is over.

I am starting to really hate this country….

#57 Sam on 04.02.19 at 7:06 pm

Empty house tax side-effect means House for Rent signs popping up. Would now like to see the condo building madness curbed. Houses are still over priced even at the decline stated here. $1 mil for a box that needs tons of work? No thanks. I guess I’m not like the other babes who fear what fails. I’d snap up property in a ‘failing’ real estate market. Still waiting.

#58 Mattl on 04.02.19 at 7:07 pm

#18 The HT on 04.02.19 at 5:39 pm
The NDP action, while not perfect, is achieving thus far what was intended. We needed a sharp decline, and it appears to be well underway. Yes, this was the goal. There will be collateral damage, but the city of Vancouver was already broken. The economy was already threatened by rampant real estate speculation and the resulting bubble.

I feel for the people who will be hurt by the recession. But that is outweighed by the optimism that my family and many other middle class families will be able to remain in the place they grew up. To be able to buy a home eventually. To not be second class citizens where we were born. Bye bye money laundering, Porshe driving foreigners. Bye bye smug realtors with a fraction of my education and 10x the earnings.

————————————————————–

This is so incredibly naive. Homes could move back 30-40% and still only be at 2012 levels in most of YVR.

When the market does finally crumble you really think a guy making a fraction of what a Realtor makes is going to be on the winning side? If prices drop 70% it would be a disaster. And guess who will have the cash, financing and resources to pick up the pieces? It won’t be the middle class.

The middle class has been priced out of YVR for at least 15 years – single family homes were 800k average in 2006. Median family income was 60K. That’s a 13x multiple. The last time a guy making 100K could buy a SFH in Vancouver at 4:1 ratio was 2002.

I can’t believe the NDP actually conned middle class families to believe they would one day be able to live affordably in YVR. Dream is dead pal, cities like Vancouver are for those that got in early, or have substantial financial resources.

Careful what you wish for.

#59 Carole James Rules on 04.02.19 at 7:08 pm

This is impressive. NDP nailed it and are getting my vote.

Minister Carole James has just tabled two bills:

1. Ends hidden ownership of property in BC, lifting the veil on trusts, corporations, numbered companies.

2. Addresses use of corporations for tax evasion and Money Laundering via a transparency registry.

The Land Owner Transparency Act provides a critical step towards ending the hidden ownership of real estate in BC. The new registry will support better enforcement of tax law and dampen speculative demand.

As per Carole James: “The last government ignored the use of shell companies, trusts and partnerships to hide who really owns property in B.C. We’re creating Canada’s first public registry of beneficial ownership, and cracking down on tax evasion and money laundering.”

“BC’s real estate market should be used for housing people, not for laundering the proceeds of crime.”

Finally some real action taking shape.

Zero difference. – Garth

#60 n1tro on 04.02.19 at 7:11 pm

#214 Dario on 04.02.19 at 5:07 pm
#205 n1tro on 04.02.19 at 3:44 pm
You said:
Similar to “chink” not being linked (was really ever?) to asians.

Ask any Asian, and they will absolutely confirm that this term is to Asians as the so-called N-word is to Black people.
It is without a doubt a racist slur.

Treat your fellow humans better and just purge that word from your vocabulary…help build a better world.
———-
Answering for myself, I was called “chink” many times when I was a child. Laughed it off not knowing what a chink was. Once my tormentors realized the word had no affect on me, it stopped, where then things escalated to the physical. Win some, lose some.

Treat your fellow human as you would like to be treated is something I follow daily. However, I disagree with having to purge words . I was also called “Charlie” (a reference to what american soldiers called the Viet Cong during the war). Should we now purge Charlie from our day to day?

As for the “N” word being a racial slur against blacks, maybe blacks shouldn’t give the word such power by calling each other the “N” word or over reacting to it when called it. It’s not like like asians go around calling each other “chink”, “slope”, “Charlie”, etc, etc

Sticks and stones….

Just saying.

#61 Smartalox on 04.02.19 at 7:12 pm

JWR & Phillpott: it’s about time.

It was time to clear the malingerers out of the locker room. Sure, the coach may be naive, and the GM may be a crook, but won’t go anywhere in the playoffs if you don’t have a cohesive team. And that CAN’T happen when your team has couple of players and standing around arguing with the Ref that they saw THEIR OWN GOALIE sweep the puck out of the net with his blocker.

Sure, arguing the call could cost their team the game, but this game has rules, and those rules must be obeyed, right?

In the end, the fans cheer for the team, not the players.

#62 don on 04.02.19 at 7:13 pm

#17 capt serious. In the last crash in the early 90’s we had 60 % to put down on a property that was discounted from the last selling price by over 50% and we had real trouble getting a mortgage from one of the big six.

#63 Can't be an April Fools Joke on 04.02.19 at 7:15 pm

…because it is April 2, 2019.

The U.S. Department of State has designated Canada a “major money laundering country” where foreign drug-trafficking gangs are exploiting weak law enforcement and soft laws” artificially inflating real estate by estimates of 67%.

“Foreign-generated proceeds of crime are laundered in Canada, and professional, third-party money laundering is a key concern,” the report states. “Transnational organized crime groups and professional money launderers are key threat actors.”

Looks like they are going to pull the trigger on a public inquiry in BC just to add gas to the firestorm happening in BC.

#64 IHCTD9 on 04.02.19 at 7:20 pm

#42 Howard on 04.02.19 at 6:38 pm
#19 IHCTD9 on 04.02.19 at 5:44 pm

“Not since people were humming the latest Bananarama tune have things sucked this much.”
———-

…and I think Vancouver RE values are heading for a “Cruel Summer”.

————————————————

Pretty soon, open houses on planet “Venus” will have more visitors than those in West Vancouver.

——-

“I heard a rumour” that there is some “rough justice” heading towards the YVR housing market.

Ok, I stop now.

#65 Howard on 04.02.19 at 7:28 pm

#58 Mattl on 04.02.19 at 7:07 pm

What exactly is your point? That the NDP shouldn’t go after money laundering etc, or work to collect taxes from satellite families that currently contribute nothing, because Vancouver will still be expensive anyway?

When 40% of Canadian families pay zero net income tax you might want to be careful disparaging satellite families ‘that currently contribute nothing’. – Garth

#66 Dolce Vita on 04.02.19 at 7:29 pm

What interests me now is how low the Average Prices will drop in YVR and 416 AND the impact on debt secured by RE.

The larger the bubble, the greater the correction. Toronto Peak to Bottom Average Price drops (see this oft posted chart link https://i.imgur.com/0YST700.png for the underlying data):

1974 = -15%, bottomed out in 1980
1989 = -39%, bottomed out in 1996
There was another in the mid-50’s with a smaller price drop than 1974 and less time to bottom out.

2018 = ????

The 2018 Peak Average Price will probably be more than -39% if history is correct as this bubble is HUGE compared to past bubbles. The same ought to apply for Vancouver, sad to say.

I wonder what Lenders will do with HELOC or Reverse Mortgages as Home Asset Values dwindle?

I find it difficult to believe that Lenders will not ask people to pay more to make up the lost equity in their home(s) that their HELOC or Reverse Mortgage loan is based on.

SO GARTH, also watch the following take a hit:

-Renovation
-Debt consolidation
-Payments on other debt
-Retirement funds

By the way Garth, I know you like to pooh pooh Vancouver RE but I believe Toronto is FAR, FAR MORE VULNERABLE based on this simple chart:

https://i.imgur.com/kytbyF2.jpg

TOO MUCH SKIN IN THE GAME Toronto.

Far too much debt because of RE and far too much debt secured by RE. RECESSION.

———————————————–

Buonanotte Garth & Acolytes.

#67 expat on 04.02.19 at 7:34 pm

Garth you forgot the biggest benefactor of the bubble was all levels of government who feasted on revenues from real estate and large property tax and payroll tax increases.

Few people truly grasp what is coming for government employees.

The pay cuts, layoffs, and program cuts may take out half the workforce.

Why?
We know unions will not tolerate pay cuts. They will fight pay cuts until the plant closes. In this case they will fight govt cuts until the bitter end as layoffs are mandated.

In the US in 2009 govt revenues collapsed from real estate transactions. Shall we talk Chicago? Detroit? Philly? Every one of the cities is broke…

Further, central banks were at 6-7% and cut hard to zero.

They have no bullets left….
The Liberals added 100 billion in debt in good times. They actually listened to the moron economists who said it was cheap to borrow at these rates….Trudeau said it himself in his first year. Money is cheap….

Shall we also talk about the CEO’s of private corporations who bought back shares with cheap money? Many of the largest corporation on the planet are in deep deep trouble from debt derived from share buybacks.

The only way out may be debt forgiveness and a new economic system to shed the old debt…..

Don’t laugh it has happened 1000’s of times over the centuries….

For you? Well your house will be worth a 1000 bucks….
Don’t laugh – they are taking you down too.

#68 expat on 04.02.19 at 7:37 pm

A house assessed at million pays what property tax in 2018

Same house assessed 50% less pays what property tax in 2020-2023.

Massive loss of revenue for govts.

Billions actually

#69 Rargary on 04.02.19 at 7:40 pm

Where’s Happy Housing Crash these days? He must be basking in glory!!

#70 PeterfromCalgary on 04.02.19 at 7:52 pm

Garth you are right again. We had our first sunny ways lynching of Wilson-Raybould and Philpott today.

Trudeau is looking more evil every day!

#71 Sebee on 04.02.19 at 7:53 pm

Garth, 27 points for referencing Bananarama in a blog. I’m spinning True Confessions on vinyl tonight in your name. Yeah, I have it on vinyl, don’t judge!

#72 NEVER GIVE UP on 04.02.19 at 7:56 pm

“But politicians are no better at deflating this gasbag than they were controlling its cancerous growth.”
====================================
What do you mean controlling the growth? The last gang of Thugs called the Liberal Party was all in with their developer friends, Money Launderers, Foreign investors getting money from “Who Cares”, and Artificial Interest Rates of which was a gift to them as they had no control over that! They also presided over the most dishonest real estate board in Canada who had no qualms in allowing their realtors to hold bidding wars with only one bidder (sucker) who knew not what was going on!

They were buying all in themselves and wanted to see how many numbers they could get in their bank account at the expense of their own and other peoples Children!

To think I was sucked in to Voting for that Den of Thieves!

I hope for a 50% crash that will bring prices only in line with reality. Where prices should be at this time. Prices whereby rents can bring return to investors and shelter real people not money!

#73 Yukon Elvis on 04.02.19 at 7:56 pm

Is this good because average families will buy houses?
……………………….

Elvis thinks it would be wonderful if average families could buy average houses. Don’t you ?

#74 Dolce Vita on 04.02.19 at 7:59 pm

#60 n1tro

It’s not always racial.

As a child of immigrant Italian parents I’d get called the “W” or “D” or “G” words and listen to all the lame Italian jokes about what sound a helicopter makes, how many gears there are in an Italian tank, how do you separate the men from the boys in the Italian Army, etc.

I’d say you got off lightly with just the “C” word.

Like you I ignored it.

Mercifully and having been brought up in AB, there were far more immigrant Ukrainians to pick on back then. Now THEY had a huge laundry list of tasteless jokes to suffer thru more than I ever did – far worse than even Blonde jokes.

Who knows what it’s all about?

My take:

Humanity spends far too much time engaging in what divides it than what unites it.

That, I have never understood. Probably never will. My Mother would call prejudice an Anglo Saxon disease (less elegant take). My unsolicited 2 bits of misery loves company.

Ciao d'[*]Italia.

*No tasteless Italian jokes here except about Salvini and ya, recessione tecnica (and that Mangiacakes know nothing…sorry, could not resist that “divide” thing…love falling upon my own sword).

#75 YVR Renter on 04.02.19 at 8:07 pm

“Sidelining need for shelter, that need doesn’t go away”? Whose need is it for the insanely priced homes in Vancouver? $5-8 million little houses in Dunbar, $3-4 in Kits. And all those trades and professionals who have benefited from the run up?? Simple gold rush mentality perpetuated in BC, pure greed. All the prospectors show up at the sign of a gold rush, then it’ll be a ghost town when the vein runs out. Every person for themselves. They can all leave, please leave!

#76 pay your taxes on 04.02.19 at 8:12 pm

#70
” We had our first sunny ways lynching of Wilson-Raybould…”

I was supportive of her until this surreptitiously recorded phone call business which firmly put her in the slimeball category. Easy to set someone up while coming across as an angel yourself the moment you hit “record”. She also snuck through a directive to take care of the first nations during government negotiations, a self serving act if ever there’s been one. No, she’s found her “level” with the politicians but she unveiled herself too soon.

#77 Waiting4YVR on 04.02.19 at 8:14 pm

During the GFC luxury houses in Phoenix and other cities were abandoned with their doors wide open. People here like to think that crazy things like that couldn’t happen in Canada or YVR. A price correction of 50% after the massive debt binge will have serious unpredictable consequences. Very few are prepared.

#78 Blacksheep on 04.02.19 at 8:18 pm

Wow, this sounds pretty serious…yet somehow seems strangely familiar…OK, lets step back a minute and big picture this itch.

Who here thinks Johnny H. Is willing to commit political suicide and just let er rip, flipping the bird to all of those Garth listed below, combined with 70% of the voting population that already owns RE?
—————————–
“In addition, a weak housing market begets a weaker economy – especially in a province where real estate’s been allowed to dominate. Realtors, drywallers, mortgage brokers, insurance guys, carpenters, bankers, electricians, builders, pavers, architects, landscape dudes – they all suffer. Confidence erodes”
—————————
Don’t get me wrong, i’m not trying to change anybody’s perspective, as I’m all in on RE already and along for the ride, good or bad.

But I remember reading very similar verbiage, right about the time I sold my primary res circa summer 2008. RE was going down and I bet the bulk of my net worth on it at the time. We all know what happened spring 2009.

What I have learned:

Just watch how the system protects it’s own interests,
specially with the Fed basically guaranteeing growth at all costs. There’s really is no other option cept a ‘not so beautiful deleveraging’ (sorry Ray) resulting in a depression that capitalism may never fully recover from.

Inflate or die…

#79 Nonplused on 04.02.19 at 8:28 pm

Well, I don’t know what they thought would happen after they enacted 4 new and onerous taxes on housing. It’s basically sent the message that if you own something in Vancouver the government can confiscate it at will.

Whenever and wherever property rights are threatened the economy dries up. You can’t get people to work for free unless you point a gun at them.

#80 Smoking Man on 04.02.19 at 8:33 pm

UFO Disclosure around the corner.

Trump will be the man to make it all public soon as he finishes draining the swap.

Free energy kids.

https://youtu.be/EQCVe9X1qEY

#81 Remembrancer on 04.02.19 at 8:35 pm

#77 Waiting4YVR on 04.02.19 at 8:14 pm
During the GFC luxury houses in Phoenix and other cities were abandoned with their doors wide open. People here like to think that crazy things like that couldn’t happen in Canada or YVR.
———————————————————-
After spending too much time on this blog’s comment section, nothing is too crazy to maybe happen in YVR…

#82 CharlieDontSurf on 04.02.19 at 8:35 pm

@#60

For the record. My wife is 100% of Chinese descent.

#83 akashic record on 04.02.19 at 8:38 pm

Oh, JRW is toast…..backbenched and stripped of her candidacy. Her political career is over.

Only in the “liberal” party. She is free to join others.

#84 Shawn Allen on 04.02.19 at 8:39 pm

ExPat seems logical but is wrong

#68 expat on 04.02.19 at 7:37 pm
A house assessed at million pays what property tax in 2018

Same house assessed 50% less pays what property tax in 2020-2023.

*****************************
Pays about the same because the mill rate is doubled.

Obviously if we get to the point of vacant houses like Detroit the municipalities will have a problem. But within reason they simply adjust the mill rate up for lower property values and down for higher property values.

Believe it or not. Look it up, and see if Vancouver mill rate came down somewhat as house prices exploded.

#85 Remembrancer on 04.02.19 at 8:44 pm

#64 IHCTD9 on 04.02.19 at 7:20 pm

I’ll put the Bangles up against your Bananarama any day… https://youtu.be/8cNeXWpTVlo

and there’s a patch of pink snow on the ground (in YVR)…

#86 Fiendish Thingy on 04.02.19 at 8:46 pm

@#12 Rub a Dub

Nanaimo:
Detached sales down nearly 25%, prices flat, sales to listing ratio way down YOY…Nanaimo is definitely in the same tub, just knee deep, compared to Vancouver, which is neck deep…this summer may prove to be the great equalizer between the island and the mainland…

#87 Tony on 04.02.19 at 8:55 pm

Re: #9 Andrew on 04.02.19 at 5:26 pm

The U.S. central bankers must already know the figures for the March jobs report this Friday. Must be nice to be able to trade all on insider information.

#88 Wrestled Tigers with Bare Hands on 04.02.19 at 8:56 pm

Jody Wilson-Raybould and Jane Philpott kicked out of Liberal Party caucus.

Garth was right here.

As per money laundering supposedly being a nothing burger in BC – disagree.

I know what is going on in the inside.

#89 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.02.19 at 9:00 pm

@#74 Dolce Vita

“mangiacakes”
+++++

Ahhh the good old days
I wore that Mangiacake badge with honor.
All the pisanos respected me because I worked just as hard as them in construction AND i wanted to be called Mangiacake.
Most of the old Italian guys I meet on the job sites dont even remember my name…. its just,
“Mangiacake! howthe*truck*youbeen?
Good stories, good times.

#90 Blacksheep on 04.02.19 at 9:06 pm

Too funny.

Just heard Carol James on CBC state:

“We are looking for a moderation in RE”

“We are watching the trend, very closely”

“We need more than a single indicator for policy decisions ”

“We have additional data points, coming in”

I’m paraphrasing above, but these comments came after a group representing the RE cartel (?) pointed the blame finger for 1986 level home sales, directly at NDP policy.

Call it the first public acknowledgement, that NDP policy is not written in stone and COULD change, given enough negative feedback from the parties they do not want to upset..

Remember when almost everybody, including me (locked in 3 yrs) believed interest rates, were finally on the move up, big time?

Look how that played out.

The system, will always protect itself.

#91 Tony on 04.02.19 at 9:08 pm

Re: #59 Carole James Rules on 04.02.19 at 7:08 pm

The NDP has stuck to their word, now if they just bust all the money launderers in the name of tax fairness and in the name of the Canadian tax coffers. Hopefully the NDP will never be voted out of office. Soon the stupid locals will figure it out and home prices will free-fall.

#92 PastThePeak on 04.02.19 at 9:22 pm

Vancouver RE this bad, and the recession hasn’t even started yet! Fast forward a year and the blood will be gushing in the streets…

#93 Asterix1 on 04.02.19 at 9:25 pm

#21 Hawk on 04.02.19 at 5:47 pm
The Vacouver effect has not yet hit GTA. Maybe it will sometime this year though.
——————————————————————

Torontorealestatecharts.com would beg to differ!

Prices down all over GTA since April 2017.

Placed like Richmond Hill getting butchered! Single detached average price down 30%. Guess that’s an issue fucila “crash”.

#94 50 YEARS OF MAPLE LEAF INCOMPETENCE! on 04.02.19 at 9:28 pm

Vancouver property starts to crash, and Toronto proves again what a mediocre hole it is.

The Blow Jays have just traded away their fan favourite player, for three almost useless minor leaguers!!!

https://www.cbc.ca/sports/baseball/mlb/jays-trade-kevin-pillar-to-giants-1.5081250

Bye Superman.

The compounding stupidity of sports team management in Toronto is the laughing stock of the entire sports world.

What does that city attract such mediocre leadership in all spheres, sports, business, politics etc…?

There goes another decade of possibility for the Blow Jays, right down the drain.

Now watch your real estate market follow, Toronturds.

#95 Freckles on 04.02.19 at 9:34 pm

Housing?
Sorry, I was looking for the ‘climate change debate and chicken prices’ blog.
Pardon me.

#96 renter in Surrey on 04.02.19 at 9:46 pm

yeah, $5 mil house is $4 mil now, big deal, give me two

600K TH and 1.2 mil SFD in the valley are not reducing prices

#97 ANON on 04.02.19 at 9:53 pm

Felix?!

#98 SW on 04.02.19 at 9:54 pm

#56 Ace Goodheart on 04.02.19 at 7:06 pm
“Canadians still have quite a bit of land.
Most of it is owned by “The Crown”, which is a weird person to own land in a country that does not have a monarchy.”

Not many Canadians seem to know, although every New Canadian* does; Canada is a constitutional monarchy and the Head of State is Queen Elizabeth II.

Mind you, it’s presently an inexpensive arrangement for Canada. Presumably it also provides a bolt-hole for the royals when Brexit results in a Bolshevik revolution.

*We’ve promised to be loyal the the Queen, her heirs and successors. As do all Canadians in office.

#99 Robert Ash on 04.02.19 at 10:03 pm

One comment .. I understand the very negative effect of criminality ie Money Laundering in any Market for Large dollar Capital items….. This type of Criminality has a very serious similar negative, impact, that counterfeiting has on an Economy it is an existential threat…. But why not focus on the Criminals, and not the Innocent family/single Mom, that is the collateral damage, of having to purchase something, to continue their jobs, or for the Babies arrival…Or the Entrepeneur…Renting a commercial space…. Time to give a little consideration, to those who through life circumstances, or fear, commited themselves to a whole pile of debt…Sadly I think there are a lot of people in that space.

#100 NEVER GIVE UP on 04.02.19 at 10:09 pm

#60 n1tro on 04.02.19 at 7:11 pm
#214 Dario on 04.02.19 at 5:07 pm
#205 n1tro on 04.02.19 at 3:44 pm
You said:
Similar to “chink” not being linked (was really ever?) to asians.

Ask any Asian, and they will absolutely confirm that this term is to Asians as the so-called N-word is to Black people.
It is without a doubt a racist slur.

Treat your fellow humans better and just purge that word from your vocabulary…help build a better world.
———-
Answering for myself, I was called “chink” many times when I was a child. Laughed it off not knowing what a chink was. Once my tormentors realized the word had no affect on me, it stopped, where then things escalated to the physical. Win some, lose some.

Treat your fellow human as you would like to be treated is something I follow daily. However, I disagree with having to purge words . I was also called “Charlie” (a reference to what american soldiers called the Viet Cong during the war). Should we now purge Charlie from our day to day?

As for the “N” word being a racial slur against blacks, maybe blacks shouldn’t give the word such power by calling each other the “N” word or over reacting to it when called it. It’s not like like asians go around calling each other “chink”, “slope”, “Charlie”, etc, etc

Sticks and stones….

Just saying.
=================================
Insightful thinking Nitro.

Today many believe they should be able to cause someone who hurts their feelings to lose their job or have their business stock valuation drop.

We have brought up a lot of thin skinned people with weak egos.

When I was insulted in my years in Asia I laughed it off. I know who I am, and if someone calls me down it doesn’t take.

Clearly the big bad white man is not the only one who spouts racist remarks.

Our Nanny state has set up entire departments to punish someone who uses the wrong word foolishly. The new mantra is that they need to protect our fragile people from hurt feelings!

I don’t like the idea of people wantonly using labels to put people down but ultimately the verbal aggressor is the one with the weak and sensitive ego and is lashing out.

From this we have people who have a sense of entitlement to the point from a real estate perspective they squeal whenever someone wants to build something anywhere within eyeshot of their property. They are the new Nimby’s. Some day I could find myself in serious trouble calling someone a Nimby!

#101 Grantmi on 04.02.19 at 10:15 pm

#96 renter in Surrey on 04.02.19 at 9:46 pm
yeah, $5 mil house is $4 mil now, big deal, give me two

600K TH and 1.2 mil SFD in the valley are not reducing prices

Fraser Valley stats aren’t out yet for March! Stay tuned! Popcorn in the bowl.

#102 SoggyShorts on 04.02.19 at 10:15 pm

#82 CharlieDontSurf on 04.02.19 at 8:35 pm
@#60

For the record. My wife is 100% of Chinese descent.

*******************
Unless I’m mistaken, “charlie” would only be insulting to Vietnemese
Vietnamese Communists
=
VC
=
Victor Charlie (NATO phoenetic Alphabet)

#103 Felix on 04.02.19 at 10:19 pm

Very illuminating picture today. Canine IQ has indeed been in a downward evolutionary spiral for millennia. The second animal barely has the intelligence of an earthworm, its laughable existence sustained only by the lowest echelon of the human species for its own low-intellect amusement.

How dumb can dogs get? There may be no bottom limit.

#104 BigAl (Original) on 04.02.19 at 10:43 pm

#2 Chris on 04.02.19 at 5:15 pm

When is Guelph going to correct? Was just in a bidding war with 7 others, 15k over asking a top of 625k for 1600 sq feet with aluminum wiring and no permits for structural work. Glad I got my rental back at least. What say you Garth of our city with “just 2 rivers.” Seems more solid than this.
==================================

Guelph, K/W, London, Windsor here in Ontario and the Fraser Valley in BC.

What gives? These places are all still nuts, with prices in London for comparable(!) homes now approaching 905 prices. Same with Chilliwack and Abbotsford. I was at one time thinking of selling here in Milton and moving to London, Ont or Chilliwack but not worth it any more.

Roaring real estate markets for 2 plus years now, bidding wars, etc etc.

Would really like to see our host’s take on these markets.

#105 Vampire Studies on 04.02.19 at 11:00 pm

59 carole – not really sure what this will do. I own a partnership share of property through my corporation. It’s listed on the title search and the corporate registry shows me and Mrs. V as shareholders. Rental income all declared. Saw a title search of another property recently listing a BC numbered company as owner. Searched the corporate registry and saw the owner and his family members as directors. They live up the street from me.

All this Act seems to do is allow the govt to summarize data already available and then presume who the beneficial owner is. I think it will be a big waste of time and money in most instances, and a needless infringment of privacy.

14 Remembrancer – agreed, never underestimate the wealth effect.

#106 BC Renovator on 04.02.19 at 11:01 pm

Where is “Upa Upa” Guy? Why so quiet on the comments today? Lol
Wait till Pre-sales need to be closed throughout the region! There will be “deals” to be had?
Also been informed by Realtors! Yes, Realtors! that some buildings have had majority, if not all units sold to “investors”. Potentially friends like mine- who dipped into their current home values last year to finance an investment property. This is could get real bad

#107 joblo on 04.02.19 at 11:14 pm

Ya think it’s time to back up the truck on SNC Lavelin stock?
hear me out, T2 will now order Lame etti to allow the DPA, and the stock pops.

It will also be a happy day for the Montreal hookers.

#108 Kilt on 04.02.19 at 11:34 pm

Prices will drop in Van until an upper middle class family can afford a home with a mortgage helper.
I’d put that in the $750-800K range (currently at $1.3 million). So we have a long way to go for most of Greater Van. No sane person wants to spend $1 million on a home and have to rent out there basement.

As for the political blame. Rubbish. This was in the cards. Buyers will come back. Plenty of demand. Once prices come down when the homes can be rented for a profit, then we will hit a bottom.

“Realtors, drywallers, mortgage brokers, insurance guys, carpenters, bankers, electricians, builders, pavers, architects, landscape dudes – they all suffer.”

Yep. But they are the ones living the high life during the boom times. Lets hope they aren’t the ones with the negative savings rates and the huge HELOCs.

Be interesting to see how the much the loan losses provisions rise on the next Bank earnings.

Kilt.

#109 majik on 04.02.19 at 11:36 pm

Also remember that since 1986 population of LM has increased from 1.5m to 2.5m.

#110 Kilt on 04.02.19 at 11:38 pm

rent out “their” basement.
:(

Kilt.

#111 The Real Mark on 04.02.19 at 11:54 pm

Can we not call it for what it is?

#112 Harley Butch on 04.03.19 at 12:10 am

But Garth, The Red Star has announced that the landlording business is booming. Have you thought of renting out sleeping space in your lofty tower? You’re leaving thousands a month unharvested.

https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2019/04/02/would-you-sleep-in-someones-office-for-1695-a-month-this-toronto-listing-shows-its-a-landlords-market-advocates-say.html

#113 DON on 04.03.19 at 12:53 am

@Mattl

“Careful what you wish for”

Well Mattl I wished for a housing market that is un-affordable even for a family of practising doctors. I also wished for a market where lax or non existent regulations allowed for criminal activity. I wished for a market where local businesses would have a hell of a time attracting local talent due to high housing costs.

So you are right…careful what you wish for…as reality is a four letter word. And the dominoes are falling.

Note: This has nothing to do with ‘wishing’ – this has to do with falsehoods that housing can rise forever with no consequences.

@Blacksheep – in 2009 the World goosed the stimulus and China and US went on a buying spree. Australia and Canada did well and the housing bubble increased. Now we have an over leveraged population and debt everywhere. The cat is out of the bad. Pushing on a string these days. The US could not prevent their housing bubble BUT Canada can??? Have you checked out the Australian housing market lately. We are way past 2009. Housing is simply un affordable. That is the number one cause of a decline.

#114 yorkville renter on 04.03.19 at 12:53 am

#96 “600K TH and 1.2 mil SFD in the valley are not reducing prices”

I bet they’re not selling either! (nothing is)

#115 Ray on 04.03.19 at 12:58 am

#80:
——-
I don’ think he will. He would be acknowledging there were beings much more powerful then him or the USA. He couldn’t handle that.

#116 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.03.19 at 1:03 am

#18 The HT on 04.02.19 at 5:39 pm
SFD’s drive the market. More affordable homes, townhomes, condos are beginning to follow in decline – you, Garth, have admitted this today.

The NDP action, while not perfect, is achieving thus far what was intended. We needed a sharp decline, and it appears to be well underway. Yes, this was the goal. There will be collateral damage, but the city of Vancouver was already broken. The economy was already threatened by rampant real estate speculation and the resulting bubble.

I feel for the people who will be hurt by the recession. But that is outweighed by the optimism that my family and many other middle class families will be able to remain in the place they grew up. To be able to buy a home eventually. To not be second class citizens where we were born. Bye bye money laundering, Porshe driving foreigners. Bye bye smug realtors with a fraction of my education and 10x the earnings.
———
Amen

#117 Annoneemouse on 04.03.19 at 1:23 am

Y’all laughing at the little guy but after 30000 years who gets shelter and food provided not to mention their poop cleaned for them??? Humans (sorry zer Turdeaux) Hupersons dont look so bright now do they?

#118 Fortune500 on 04.03.19 at 1:28 am

Hmmm, seems the goal is pretty clear to me, and reasonable. If government measures over the last 10-20 years have artificially inflated the true value of homes in regard to local incomes, then the goal is to lower the value of homes to reflect local incomes.

I don’t get why people expect buyers to jump in the minute an overvalued home goes down a bit. Reasonable young Canadians looking at this objectively are waiting for property price to drop A LOT. And then, and only then, will they step in to buy them.

That will happen. Eventually. Give it a year or three.

#119 Smoking Man on 04.03.19 at 2:02 am

Every thought you have in your head has been some power hungree freak show sales pitch.

Get drunk alone find the truth for yourself.

You are just a:

https://youtu.be/4XvI__yHNow

#120 millmech on 04.03.19 at 2:43 am

#55
You mean our top lawyer/Justice Minister recording calls with high level Government officials without their consent(probably used a Huewai at that). Heck even my bank asks for my consent to record my conversation when I call them.
I guess that maybe she thought that all those Government Protocols/Laws for security did not apply to her.
Cell phones are easily hacked just ask Mr.Bezos and Angela Merkel, that blunder alone should have been enough for her to be dismissed.
She should have resigned if she was not happy with the way things went and she could have waited patiently for a leadership review and had a very good chance of leading the Liberal Party.

#121 Bring back Vancouver on 04.03.19 at 3:32 am

Mattl #58

This is so incredibly naive. Homes could move back 30-40% and still only be at 2012 levels in most of YVR.

When the market does finally crumble you really think a guy making a fraction of what a Realtor makes is going to be on the winning side? If prices drop 70% it would be a disaster. And guess who will have the cash, financing and resources to pick up the pieces? It won’t be the middle class.

The middle class has been priced out of YVR for at least 15 years – single family homes were 800k average in 2006. Median family income was 60K. That’s a 13x multiple. The last time a guy making 100K could buy a SFH in Vancouver at 4:1 ratio was 2002.

I can’t believe the NDP actually conned middle class families to believe they would one day be able to live affordably in YVR. Dream is dead pal, cities like Vancouver are for those that got in early, or have substantial financial resources.

Careful what you wish for.
——————————-

Was YVR a different city in the early 2000’s? So it just came to be a “world class city” after the price increases? Lol, ya right. I guess before that the sea, mountains and weather were different. I bought a kits condo in 2000 and I can tell you it was the same beautiful city. Prices still high in the desirable areas but not the rampant speculation that took place from about 2003-2017. It was a solid 15 years of smoke and mirrors of low interest rates, foreign buyers, local media, government support, and locals believing the hype. The suburbs only really started the huge increases after about 2014, I remember because we almost bought a house.

The reality is that many people believe, and rightly so, that the Liberals sold out the city. Someone needs to clean up the mess they created and make houses somewhat affordable. There will always be expensive areas, but it’s the entire lower mainland that eventually became part of the speculation. So you say the NDP con? You mean like Liberals and Cristy Clark? I personally don’t believe in all the tax and intervention but someone had to do something.

Question: where are the jobs to support San Fransisco kind of prices? The high paying jobs were never there which is why prices never reached a speculative pitch in the outer rings until all the hype finally took it there in about 2014.

You think all realtors with a grade 12 education should make big money? I know they were, but the reversion to the norm is happening. It wasn’t normal; I hope realtors saved some of their commissions. Is this you?

The middle class never owned a SFH on the west side in the last 20 years, but they most definitely should be able to own a SFH in the suburbs.

This correction is healthy and NEEDS to happen. So yes, we wish for a this. Vancouver is a great city and the locals should be part of it’s future. Real estate is shelter, not a speculative stock.

#122 Reality is stark on 04.03.19 at 3:39 am

Millennials want cheaper housing. The housing market is imploding and is getting cheaper.
However this is a one trick pony economy, housing. When the housing market capitulates jobs will disappear. Those same millennials will have no work to afford anything. Be careful what you wish for.
Now for the real tragedy.
Do not expect any public service cost adjustments even though revenues will collapse. Since Canadian politicians have no management ability expect our society to collapse as well.

#123 Jay Currie on 04.03.19 at 4:35 am

Did a bit of a drive around on the West Side of Vancouver over the last couple of days. Couple of things: three or four “For Sale” signs per block…but, strangely, there are also tons of ongoing builds and renos.

Meanwhile, my lovely wife is looking for our next rental. (Current VI house sold after 6 mos on market.) Inventory in Vic sucks. But over 100 houses a day are coming onto CL-Van. Now most of them want crazy rents – think 5K-25K – but I have never seen rental inventory like this.

The reality is that a vacant, off shore owned, Vancouver house assessed at 5 million is going to be hit with $150,000 a year in taxes. Frankly, if the offshore owners were not being advised by very dim reators turned “property managers” they would be delighted with $1000 a month to avoid $12,500 a month in taxes. Eventually that penny will drop and so will rents.

#124 Clearheaded on 04.03.19 at 5:16 am

Canada in recession, EU close behind, racing Germany for who links first to a synchronized global slowdown. But is this all another snowjob by EU Globalists who want to bring Trump into line by frightening people with scat. Is Trudeau purposefully killing Canada’s economy to tailor our misery to the ideology of the globalists.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/03/us-and-china-are-reportedly-drawing-closer-to-final-trade-agreement-ft.html

But as we see, the rhetoric only applies to the failing globalists who would have is believe the world will die in 12 years if we don’t conform to climate and migration dogma. I’m invested in China and the US. I also invest in Canadian companies who are shifting their focus to the US. Those companies who are relocating to the US are top of the list. Those who already report in USD are a slam dunk IMHO.

Trudeau , Soros, Metkel and Juncker are just noise. Don’t believe anything that’s coming out of the CBC. There are bets made now that Trudeau is toast, watch as Canadian Energy catches a bid, already up 20% ytd, more to come.

Driving western countries into recession is a strategy, to weaken public opinion. Follow the only voices that matter? Trump and Xie. Dump Euro $CDN, buy USD, long EM, China focus.

Don’t expect China or Trump to let up on Canada on tariffs, Trudeau is extremely unpopular by both.

#125 under the radar on 04.03.19 at 5:18 am

Central 416 semis still get 1.3 with multiple offers and they need a lot of work. People who paid peak prices will see a haircut if they must sell, otherwise life goes on.
As for 905, sure there is carnage , for the foolish or greedy. Sorry, but 800k or a million for a house in a farmers field in Milton or Innisfil never made sense, nor did 3 million for a 5000 sq foot house in Richmond Hill on 60 foot lot.

#126 Howard on 04.03.19 at 5:56 am

TREB March report out. Sales and prices generally flat yoy.

http://www.trebhome.com/index.php/market-news/market-watch

#127 Gravy Train on 04.03.19 at 6:03 am

#80 Smoking Man on 04.02.19 at 8:33 pm
“Trump will be the man to make it all public soon as he finishes draining the swamp.” No, Smokey, it’s Garth who’s draining the swamp, one ‘deplorable’ at a time! How you’ve managed to escape capture is anybody’s guess! :)

#196 Gordon on 03.30.19 at 2:54 am
BANNED

#197 David Driven on 03.30.19 at 7:02 am
BANNED

#49 Yellow Vest on 04.02.19 at 6:53 pm
BANNED

#128 Tater on 04.03.19 at 7:54 am

Oh boy are the TREB numbers ever bad. Sales down 40% from Mar ’17 and detached prices down almost 20%.

All those people saying that 416 detached would always go uppa seem to be wrong. Prices are even below Mar ’16.

This decreased equity will choke off the Bank of Mom and Dad and will begin to pressure semis and condos soon enough.

Additionally, as we roll into the summer, any specs who bought peak house with a 2y mortgage face the prospect of trying to renew with the new stress test, lower prices, bank credit drying up and private lenders backing away. May and June could see a flood of listings.

#129 Long Time Reader on 04.03.19 at 7:58 am

Garth, Who stays up in the middle of the night to approve of these 3am, 430am posts?

His name starts with a ‘B’. – Garth

#130 Penny Henny on 04.03.19 at 8:19 am

TREB reports sales are down from March 2018

“Toronto Real Estate Board President Garry Bhaura announced that Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 7,187 residential sales through TREB’s MLS® System in March 2019. This result was inline with 7,188 sales reported in March 2018. ”

http://www.trebhome.com/index.php/news/154-treb-releases-market-figures-as-reported-by-gta-realtors

#131 David Hawke on 04.03.19 at 8:20 am

Good question #127, I haven’t read a word of the drivel emitting from the demented dude’s piehole in a couple of years, in fact, I’ve chosen a new method for weeding out the deplorables, I merely scroll through the comments only stopping to read those Garth has responded to which saves wading through the swamp. The only reason I saw yours is it was the last post.

#132 Darryl on 04.03.19 at 8:28 am

#126 Howard on 04.03.19 at 5:56 am
TREB March report out. Sales and prices generally flat yoy.
http://www.trebhome.com/index.php/market-news/market-watch
—————————————————-
On last page , 27/27 .
Funny how the data for 2017 is missing on the Historic annual statistics chart .
I guess TREB doesn’t want to show the market peak data .

#133 dharma bum on 04.03.19 at 8:30 am

In keeping with the degree of relevance that most comments today had to the blogpost’s topic, I have this to add:

I am taking my car in for service today. Winter tires are coming off. Oil change. A couple of minor non safety related recalls.

Thank you.

#134 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.03.19 at 8:34 am

@#109 majik

“Also remember that since 1986 population of LM has increased from 1.5m to 2.5m.”

++++

Yep and we have the traffic to prove it.
Yesterday total gridlock on the road system.
Small fender bender on the Second Narrows during the morning “rush” hour caused chaos and as that cleared a mid morning shooting in North Van caused the police to shut down all south bound traffic from North Van for almost 2 hours… Second Narrows and Lions Gate were reduced to a crawl….as the police fruitlessly “searched” cars for the shooters…perhaps the shooters were sitting it out in the Police Station parking lot 2 blocks from the shooting, listening to the radio traffic updates while eating donuts and drinking coffee.
Any new bridges or tunnels require a least a decade of “study” before breaking ground.
Hence the twice daily parking lots on all major choke points ( ie bridges) in the Lower Brain Land.
Expect it to get much much worse.

#135 Reed Marx on 04.03.19 at 9:34 am

Again,
when you combine political leaders believe everyone should own a home with a decade long “historically ridiculous loose money policy” this is what you get. Pumping up the real-estate market creates an illusion of wealth and betrays the public’s best interest. Unfortunately, the Harperites seemed to think that was was the way to go instead of directing that cheap money into productive economic assets like innovation, education, green tech, and factory facilities. This will be a rolling crisis that will last at least a decade. Sure the Libs and NDP in B.C are not immune from blame, but they inherited the mess that has come from THE DUMBEST monetary policies in Canadian history!

#136 Jack of all trades on 04.03.19 at 9:38 am

#127 Gravy Train. You must be a freedom hating Liberal. If it wasn’t for free speech you wouldn’t be here. I’m pretty sure ‘ The Daily Worker’ doesn’t allow diverse opinions. Trudeau wants to take Canada towards communism, he’s said so. If Canada was Trudeau’s socialist state Garth wouldn’t be around. Be careful about who you want to silence, the next in line might be you.

#137 Grantmi on 04.03.19 at 9:40 am

Ouch,,,, Fraser valley stats (Vancouver burbs)

http://fvreb.bc.ca/statistics/Package201903.pdf

Almost double the listings in March 2019 vs 2018. …. 46.2%

Same time year previous. -0.2% listings up. (2018 vs 2017)

Roll film….

#138 IHCTD9 on 04.03.19 at 9:59 am

I’m glad I live outside the emotional pull of market changes. I’ve never had, nor will I ever have FOMO. People obviously need a decent amount of space between them or they lose their minds.

Out here on the ice pack, houses cost between $65,000.00 – 3,000,000.00 – there is something for everyone.

We paid 123K for our place, so who cares what the market does. We’re getting a nest egg together to fund retirement, so who cares what the market does. House is paid for and it’s just a place to live, I don’t care what the Realtor says it’s worth.

#139 Howard on 04.03.19 at 10:10 am

#136 Grantmi on 04.03.19 at 9:40 am
Ouch,,,, Fraser valley stats (Vancouver burbs)

http://fvreb.bc.ca/statistics/Package201903.pdf

Almost double the listings in March 2019 vs 2018. …. 46.2%

Same time year previous. -0.2% listings up. (2018 vs 2017)

Roll film….

————————————–

Listings up 46% yoy is not “almost double”.

#140 crossbordershopper on 04.03.19 at 10:12 am

who is able to get all this credit that garth keeps talking about. i dont have debt problems, because well, i got turned down so many times for any credit card that i just live in the cash world.
so when people say they get mortgages for hundreds of thousands etc, i scratch my head, since many millions of canadians are at pay day loan shops and easy home to finance a tv at 32 dollars a week, for 5 years same 4k tv at walmart was 500 bucks. so i dont know what people on this blog are talking.
the amount of people who are getting 335 bucks on carbon tax are many, in saskatchewan, well everyone, but home sales non existance, because few jobs and no down payment, so no sales at any price, so when people say bidding war? well its definitely a local phenomenal, because here there is no bid, at any price. not even a low ball bid, no bid.
dont know how people get in debt problems still, still cant get credit card, or a mortgage at bank at any rate, any terms. like millions of other people.
so as millions of people trade million dollar paper mache houses and overpriced stocks due to low rates, millions are wondering do i pay the hydro bill this month becaue my paycheque is next friday and eat in the mean time. day to day living for millions of hard working low income people. interest rates are not their concern, or high real estate values, they rent, always will, and eat cheap food, and staycation, etc.

#141 Howard on 04.03.19 at 10:16 am

#131 Darryl on 04.03.19 at 8:28 am
#126 Howard on 04.03.19 at 5:56 am
TREB March report out. Sales and prices generally flat yoy.
http://www.trebhome.com/index.php/market-news/market-watch
—————————————————-
On last page , 27/27 .
Funny how the data for 2017 is missing on the Historic annual statistics chart .
I guess TREB doesn’t want to show the market peak data .

————————————–

I noticed that exact same thing, haha.

I thought it must be an innocent oversight, even TREB isn’t so sleazy to deliberately leave out 2017 so as to hide the comparison to 2019.

#142 Frank on 04.03.19 at 10:20 am

Yes lower prices is the goal because it means less debt.

Prices and sales will rebound. As will economies. They’re cyclical. But debt drags on.

The province needs a shock to the system like the US did in 2008 to help it shed debt.

When house prices fall, debt does not. People with mortgages just get crushed. Perhaps you should try thinking before writing. It helps. – Garth

#143 Smoking Man on 04.03.19 at 10:26 am

127 Gravy Train on 04.03.19 at 6:03 am
#80 Smoking Man on 04.02.19 at 8:33 pm
“Trump will be the man to make it all public soon as he finishes draining the swamp.” No, Smokey, it’s Garth who’s draining the swamp, one ‘deplorable’ at a time! How you’ve managed to escape capture is anybody’s guess! :)

#196 Gordon on 03.30.19 at 2:54 am
BANNED

#197 David Driven on 03.30.19 at 7:02 am
BANNED

#49 Yellow Vest on 04.02.19 at 6:53 pm
BANNED
…..

Privalage.

I’m cute for bald guy with no teeth.

#144 Rifles on 04.03.19 at 10:46 am

1986 was also the last time I saw my abs.

#145 IHCTD9 on 04.03.19 at 11:09 am

#132 dharma bum on 04.03.19 at 8:30 am
In keeping with the degree of relevance that most comments today had to the blogpost’s topic, I have this to add:

I am taking my car in for service today. Winter tires are coming off. Oil change. A couple of minor non safety related recalls.

Thank you.
___

Ah, I like this topic.

Over the last 2 weeks I’ve changed the engine oil, hydraulic fluid, final drive oil, and topped up the antifreeze in Dozer #1. Rewired the ignition and charging systems 100% front to back. Replaced battery. Replaced the 1 wire alternator with a three wire, along with an Alternator light and ammeter. Replaced and relocated the starter solenoid. Fixed an oil leak. Redid the entire fuel supply line from the tank to the carb, new fuel petcock and replaced filter. Installed new float and gaskets in the carb. Cleaned and set the points and greased the cam. Cleaned and lithium greased every single electrical connection on the machine.

It’s been a long road, but it’s almost done. In about a weeks time, it will be coming off the jack-stands it’s been sitting on since 2014 and will immediately be put to work. This is not my TD9, but an older smaller track loader I bought in 2011 that had big undercarriage issues. It’s all been made new now.

This summer, it’ll be digging out my mucky driveway and refilling it with 10″ of A-gravel, hoisting building materials and equipment on my roof for a re-shingle, removing 1 tree and 2 stumps, loading a couple tandem axle loads worth of scrap metal, removing a big old wooden outdoor kids play set, and one tandem load of trash for the dump. Then it will be subjected to an extended period of moving big chunks of concrete.

#146 yvr_lurker on 04.03.19 at 11:29 am

#121 Bring Back Vancouver

Well said. We share the same view. Vancouver was already world class in 2000 with respect to the things that most average people care about. Need to focus and provide incentives to attract innovative companies to set up in YVR, increasing the breadth of job opportunities and increasing the potential of high paying jobs. This will keep local talent from leaving to places like SF and Seattle. Selling and flipping 2-3M teardowns to hordes of speculative foreigners doesn’t do anything in this direction; it only benefits the lucky few who bought years ago and won the housing lottery and the dumb asses working in the bloated real estate sector (which has dominated the landscape for far too long).

#147 Gravy Train on 04.03.19 at 11:37 am

#135 Jack of all trades on 04.03.19 at 9:38 am
“You must be a freedom-hating Liberal.” I love freedom, truth, science, the rule of law, capitalism, internationalism, free trade, free speech, free assembly, a free press, and liberal democracy. I despise authoritarianism, jingoism, tariffs, lies, anti-science, hate speech, fascism, neo-Nazis, skinheads, racism, xenophobia, and mindless Trumpologists and Trumpoholics. Does that help clarify my position? :)

#148 Captain Uppa on 04.03.19 at 12:12 pm

>>#106 BC Renovator on 04.02.19 at 11:01 pm
Where is “Upa Upa” Guy? Why so quiet on the comments today? Lol>>

Never fear my friend, Captain Uppa is always here! Looks like GTA flat-a, Flat-a, FLAT-A!

But, like always, soon to go uppa, Uppa, UPPA!!!!

#149 Mattl on 04.03.19 at 12:22 pm

#65 Howard on 04.02.19 at 7:28 pm
#58 Mattl on 04.02.19 at 7:07 pm

What exactly is your point? That the NDP shouldn’t go after money laundering etc, or work to collect taxes from satellite families that currently contribute nothing, because Vancouver will still be expensive anyway?

———————————————————–
Of course they should go after those things. Beneficial ownership, KYC, AML are all no brainers. Where did I argue otherwise?

My point is that the middle class is not going to be the net beneficiary of a housing crash in YVR. A crash will take out the local economy, consumer spending will freeze, credit will dry up, and there will be significant job loss. Help me understand how this helps a guy making 75K buy a home in YVR that went from 1.8MM to 900K?

Sure, there are some middle class savers that will have 300K tucked away but the large majority of the long term winners of a market crash will be those with serious cash, no dependency on credit, and no reliance on local market forces. For instance I would expect foreign ownership to INCREASE in such an event. Look at the US example, the middle class LOST their homes and large investors scooped up whole tracts of homes.

And surely you realize a lot of the middle class already own homes. It’s pretty obvious guys are cheering for a crash so that you can one day own one too. Careful what you wish for, the next group of pinheads will be right behind you trying to take out your equity so they can get in.

But anyways you are free to live in your fantasy land where homes in YVR can be bought at 4:1 median incomes. Me, I gave up on Van a long time ago and have not had issues finding affordable homes in BC.

#150 James on 04.03.19 at 12:24 pm

#142 Smoking Man on 04.03.19 at 10:26 am

127 Gravy Train on 04.03.19 at 6:03 am
#80 Smoking Man on 04.02.19 at 8:33 pm
“Trump will be the man to make it all public soon as he finishes draining the swamp.” No, Smokey, it’s Garth who’s draining the swamp, one ‘deplorable’ at a time! How you’ve managed to escape capture is anybody’s guess! :)

#196 Gordon on 03.30.19 at 2:54 am
BANNED

#197 David Driven on 03.30.19 at 7:02 am
BANNED

#49 Yellow Vest on 04.02.19 at 6:53 pm
BANNED
…..

Privalage.

I’m cute for bald guy with no teeth.
____________________________________________
“Cute” Hilarious your a pathetic excuse for an Old Man who doesn’t take care of himself. Your a periodontist’s dream come true. You have excellent health care in Socal why don’t you get them fixed?
We all have seen your Periscope videos………….Uggggggggg

#151 James on 04.03.19 at 12:31 pm

China is at it again complaining of pests in our Canadian Canola. China has sent non-compliance notifications to Richardson International Ltd. and Viterra Inc., two major Canadian exporters of canola seed. Chinese officials also suspended their licenses. Does anyone think that this could at all be connected to December arrest of senior Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou in Vancouver at the behest of the United States? This is the way the Chinese do business. BTW I have been to China and I can tell you it is the most polluted, dirtiest, smelliest place I have ever been. Who is calling the kettle black? I dare not eat anything when I’m there that I can not confirm its origin and method of preparation. Actually I usually bring protein bars and only drink beer when I’m there. “The Beer is pasteurized I hope” It is a good way to lose 5 KG quickly. Just take a business trip to China.

#152 James on 04.03.19 at 12:37 pm

The Chinese will simply move their money somewhere else to purchase real estate. They have to get it out of China and they know the government wants to control currency and where it goes. If not Vancouver, then any other province or state. It will continue to drive markets regardless of what local governments try to implement. Local governments are always one to two years behind the flow of money. When the dust settles my bet is that the Chinese money will return to Vancouver to scoop up deals due to the low prices effecting the market now. They love land!

#153 rosie on 04.03.19 at 12:40 pm

#140
If you check the historical sale/price chart you can see the last bust. 1989, average sale price $273,698. Only 13 years later, 2002, average price $275,231.

#154 Ace Goodheart on 04.03.19 at 12:55 pm

Here is an interesting article regarding the weird stuff currently going on in the Toronto condo market:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/toronto/article-ontario-court-finds-hi-rise-group-acted-in-bad-faith-on-pre-sale/

Apparently the condo builder decided to rely on a clause in the contract which required the buyers to show they qualified unconditionally for mortgage funding.

As anyone who has worked in the real estate industry knows, this is virtually impossible. The bank will always insist on conditions, right up to the date of closing, before releasing funds.

96 of 114 buyers could not meet the unconditional requirement.

So what does the builder do? Keeps their deposits, cancels the condo project, sells the land to an entity that occupies the same office space, and then proceeds to plan a rental complex in the same space.

I guess it is one thing to be told your condo is not going ahead, here’s your deposit back, good luck in finding something else.

But if they keep your deposit? That is cold.

#155 Shawn Allen on 04.03.19 at 1:21 pm

“Us” versus “Them”

When 40% of Canadian families pay zero net income tax you might want to be careful disparaging satellite families ‘that currently contribute nothing’. – Garth

********************************
True, but it is easy to think of low income people as part of “we” and “us” while an immigrant home owner and family where the breadwinner works outside the country is easily thought of as part of “them”. People are simply tribal that way.

Tribal and oft ignorant. Most $80,000-households in Canada pay no net tax. Not exactly ‘low income.’ – Garth

#156 Headhunter on 04.03.19 at 1:22 pm

Sad but the shit is hitting the fan. This is going to wipe may many people out who thought its different here. I sill stick my my 50% haircut at a minimum.

900K to 1 million new builds in Angus ON you read that right! Angus Ontario! new homes, never lived in Power of sale, more around then you think.

https://www.kijiji.ca/v-house-for-sale/barrie/brand-new-5-bedrooms-detached-house-for-sale-call-416-315-7728/1424387103?enableSearchNavigationFlag=true

#157 millmech on 04.03.19 at 1:23 pm

I read The Big Short a little while ago, there was a statement about the crisis was that it was not the 8% defaults that started the crisis in housing, it was once houses stopped going up in value people stopped spending. We are here at that moment now, it is in media and is common knowledge let us see where it goes from here, interesting times.

#158 Blacksheep on 04.03.19 at 1:35 pm

Don # 113,

“Have you checked out the Australian housing market lately. We are way past 2009. Housing is simply un affordable. That is the number one cause of a decline.”
————————————
“Compared with their 2017 peak, Sydney and Melbourne’s house prices have now dropped 11.1% and 7.2% respectively”

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jan/02/australian-house-prices-falling-at-fastest-rate-in-a-decade-data-shows
——————————-
Doesn’t seem to dire yet, unless you just bought RE.

I expect a healthy pull back (20%+?) on RE prices in BC and then for the gov’s correction driven intervention to end.

Why?

Because the NDP’s platform was to make housing more affordable in BC.

A province wide 20% RE correction, would allow the NDP to claim election promises fulfilled, while striking a balance between hard core NDP voters (high % renters) and current home owners carrying some serous debt.

Anyone that thinks the NDP are going knowingly cause / allow a 40% RE correction take place on their watch, are being naively idealistic.

Remember, a politian which fails to be re-elected, is an unemployed politian.

There is a lot of people that just have to accept they will never own a home in Vancouver, north of the Fraser. I’ve been here 55 years and accepted this fact decades ago…

#159 MHM on 04.03.19 at 2:08 pm

Dougie Ford wants to change the Ontario license plate slogan…

Why not “Come and get a cando in exchange for the rest of your life’s earnings”

#160 Ronaldo on 04.03.19 at 2:11 pm

#143 Rifles on 04.03.19 at 10:46 am

1986 was also the last time I saw my abs.
—————————————————————–
Sounds like you’re suffering with the same disease as a lot of middle aged dudes. Dickdoo.

#161 Ronaldo on 04.03.19 at 2:19 pm

When house prices fall, debt does not. People with mortgages just get crushed. Perhaps you should try thinking before writing. It helps. – Garth
—————————————————————
And it won’t take much of a drop in prices for that to happen. From my experience the people who most gorged on real estate were the real estate agents themselves. Got into the game with minimum down and now find themselves underwater on several units. In addition to their capital losses they are having to prop up the mortage payments from their own earnings as the rents start to fall and they are not able to cover the holding costs. I know of one agent who owns roughly 20 units and is having to burn off his RSP’s to prevent bankruptcy hoping for a turnaround. Good luck with that.

#162 Hawk on 04.03.19 at 2:20 pm

#155 Headhunter on 04.03.19 at 1:22 pm

That house needs an additional 50% correction from the $749K price to be a “viable” buy. It’s in the back of beyond and middle of nowhere.

But I expect there are those that may pay a lot for it.

#163 Mattl on 04.03.19 at 2:48 pm

For those of you that naively believe that a crash will get you into a house, please look at US home ownership post GFC. Home ownership (owner occupied) is close to 50 year lows. All the while, the RE market in the US has taken off, dramatically since 2012.

From what I can tell, post GFC US national home ownership has gone down by 8 points, vacancy rates have gone down 4 points and rents have gone up 45% ( $665 to $995).

So tell me who has benefited from the great buying opportunity in the US? Institutional buyers and big money. Who lost? Middle class.

I just don’t see a scenario whereby the middle class comes out the winner in a RE crash / recession.

#164 IHCTD9 on 04.03.19 at 2:54 pm

#155 Headhunter on 04.03.19 at 1:22 pm
Sad but the shit is hitting the fan. This is going to wipe may many people out who thought its different here. I sill stick my my 50% haircut at a minimum.

900K to 1 million new builds in Angus ON you read that right! Angus Ontario! new homes, never lived in Power of sale, more around then you think.
_____

I was just in Alliston last week picking up a [good used but like new and tax free] bucket for the track loader I’m working on. I took the 89 exit – there used to be a huge sign right off the 400 going West advertising houses in the 900’s – nothing but farms for miles around. Aimed directly at GTA commuters obviously. Sign is gone now. Big development going on down the road a ways too.

The 400 traffic going North was INSANE, and GTA’ers are STILL willing to shell out near a million for these houses even though a commute from hell is required?

Just how freaking bad is it in Toronto?!?

#165 n1tro on 04.03.19 at 3:01 pm

Trudeau losing the (young) women vote as dozens turn their backs in his opening remarks.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/daughters-of-the-vote-trudeau-1.5082589

^ Canadians starting to be woke af?

#166 Shawn Allen on 04.03.19 at 3:02 pm

Who’s Paying No Tax?

Tribal and oft ignorant. Most $80,000-households in Canada pay no net tax. Not exactly ‘low income.’ – Garth

********************************
Totally agree. It’s interesting about people making $80k and paying no net tax.

I wonder how they do it. I suppose a few it would be where all the income is from eligible dividends, but that would be rare? Mostly Canada child benefits and GST rebates?

Possibly a Royal Commission on both corporate and personal income tax is needed.

The Canada Child Benefit is a significant reason. – Garth

#167 Shawn Allen on 04.03.19 at 3:14 pm

Paying no net tax

Oops I see Garth said household… So Two people making around $40k each paying no net tax.

I am not familiar with the scenario and how common that is or what accounts for it.

I would bet though that some of these people paying no net tax are Albertans who think they are personally paying equalization.

#168 Penny Henny on 04.03.19 at 3:17 pm

TREB charts.
This is new.

http://www.trebhome.com/files/market-stats/housing-charts/TREB_Housing_Market_Charts-March_2019.pdf

#169 45north on 04.03.19 at 3:48 pm

Smoking Man: Herdonomics 101
Down she goes

is the whole housing market in Canada going down? What makes Vancouver and Toronto the same:
same currency
same interest rates
same banks – at least the big banks
same CMHC
same Federal Government

under the radar: Central 416 semis still get 1.3 with multiple offers and they need a lot of work.

like Mortimer Avenue where I visit from time-to-time. Yeah, houses there sell in one week. Flat. I can see the market in Innisfil or Richmond Hill, in collapse while the market on Mortimer is still in strong demand. Still, we’ve never been here before. No part of the GTA has ever been in collapse.

Wolf Richter has made some charts that compare Vancouver with San Francisco and Toronto with San Francisco.

https://www.howestreet.com/2019/03/16/the-most-splendid-housing-bubbles-in-canada-deflate/

Richter makes the point that prices of Vancouver and Toronto have risen way beyond the price of Canadian labour. Looking at his charts, my conclusion is that Vancouver is going to suffer a catastrophic collapse. Right now. Toronto will markedly slow but not collapse this spring. Mortimer will be just fine. For another year.

#170 AGuyInVancouver on 04.03.19 at 3:59 pm

#52 Bigger Price Drops than Reported here on 04.02.19 at 7:01 pm
Saretsky was on CKNW 980 yesterday saying widespread drops across the entire lower mainland and coming to a Victoria neighborhood near you.

1 bedroom condos are down 10-12% from peak price a year ago in Vancouver…
_ _ _
Yep! I am really looking forward to the first batch of assignments from desperate sellers as their one bedroom boxes in the sky complete this year. That is where the massive 20% foreign participation in the market really distorted prices. Let them burn!

Please link to evidence 20% of Victoria condos are owned by non-residents. – Garth

#171 Gravy Train on 04.03.19 at 4:13 pm

#165 Shawn Allen on 04.03.19 at 3:02 pm
“Possibly a Royal Commission on both corporate and personal income tax is needed.” It’s already been done! (Click the links below for the complete report.) :)
http://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2014/bcp-pco/Z1-1962-1-1-eng.pdf
http://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2014/bcp-pco/Z1-1962-1-2-1-eng.pdf
http://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2014/bcp-pco/Z1-1962-1-2-2-eng.pdf
http://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2014/bcp-pco/Z1-1962-1-3-1-eng.pdf
http://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2014/bcp-pco/Z1-1962-1-3-2-eng.pdf
http://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2014/bcp-pco/Z1-1962-1-3-3-eng.pdf
http://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2014/bcp-pco/Z1-1962-1-4-1-eng.pdf
http://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2014/bcp-pco/Z1-1962-1-4-2-eng.pdf
http://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2014/bcp-pco/Z1-1962-1-4-3-eng.pdf
http://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2014/bcp-pco/Z1-1962-1-4-4-eng.pdf
http://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2014/bcp-pco/Z1-1962-1-5-eng.pdf
http://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2014/bcp-pco/Z1-1962-1-6-1-eng.pdf
http://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2014/bcp-pco/Z1-1962-1-6-2-eng.pdf

#172 Remembrancer on 04.03.19 at 4:25 pm

#167 Penny Henny on 04.03.19 at 3:17 pm
TREB charts.
This is new.

http://www.trebhome.com/files/market-stats/housing-charts/TREB_Housing_Market_Charts-March_2019.pdf
—————————————————-
That jaunty green 2019 down tick on slide 10 seems a tad optimistic trend line for 2019.

Anyone that lived through late 80’s early 90’s GTA housing should see that affordability index and cringe…

#173 AGuyInVancouver on 04.03.19 at 7:44 pm

Please link to evidence 20% of Victoria condos are owned by non-residents. – Garth
_ _ _
Ya got me, the 20% rate from CMHC was for Vancouver, though Victoria is likely close behind.

So, to be clear, you made it up. – Garth