The flop

It’s been a week since the federal budget. Remember that? Most people don’t. Too bad for T2, since this was the big channel-changing event to prepare for the federal election seven months from this week.

The centrepiece was the CHMAP, of course. But it looks like the Canadian Horny Moister Assistance Plan is destined to be another federal flop.

At first industry analysts said the shared-equity mortgage strategy would boost sales by maybe 5%. Then we heard it would help moisters shop for properties priced up to $600,000. Then came word the plan’s so good home sales would be depressed until it clicks in – September.

Well, forget all that. As details of this thing trickle out (since the budget was purposefully vague), it’s clearly a road apple. Big zero. As void and desolate as Kevin O’Leary’s pate. If the intent was to suck up to Millennial voters in the GTA and LM, this is a fail. Here’s why…

First, a SEM will only be available to couples/people with a household income of $120,000 or less. The maximum mortgage under the plan, which includes the insured mortgage plus the federal kick-in, cannot exceed four times income. So, all-in, this means a max property purchase price (for buyers with a 5% downpayment) of just over $490,000. Good luck finding a house for that amount in the big city. Plus the shared equity loan amount on resales is 5% – the 10% figure thrown around a lot applies only to new-builds.

The irony is a couple with a $120,000 income not taking up the SEM offer qualifies to buy a property valued at almost $560,000 (and give up no equity). Not only would people buy less house under the CMHC plan, they’d have to give up a portion of any equity growth in the future when they sell. The finance minister has made it clear a property purchased using a SEM will result in Ottawa sharing in any capital gains, as well as repayment of the loaned amount.

More to consider: with a SEM, the government (through CMHC) will be on title as partial owner of your house. However don’t expect the feds to pay any of the land transfer tax or routine household overhead. Plus you’ll have to foot the extra legal costs of a more complicated deed upon closing. And don’t forget the as-yet unknown complexity, cost or delay involved in applying for a shared-equity mortgage – important factors to understand even before an offer to purchase is made.

No wonder a similar program rolled out in BC by the last government crashed and burned. Only 20% of the expected applicants materialized there, and it was finally put out of its misery. A fair guess is that six months from now, when the SEM is finally available, it will be a nothingburger to the market.

And how about the other big budget reform, allowing RRSP withdrawals of up to $35,000 (or $70,000 per couple) for a down payment?

That increase of ten grand is also unlikely to goose the market, based on experience to date. Apparently just 20,000 people a year have been using the current $25,000 allotment – or a mere 6% of first-time buyers. The other 94% don’t have RRSPs, don’t want to fuss with a 15-year payback schedule or understand that retirement savings are, doh, for retirement.

Sorry, Justin. This was not a cannabis moment.

My, my. Remember when bond yields in the US were hitting 3% and the resident flock of Chicken Littles was forecasting The End as central banks went wild with tightening? Well, now yields are tanking. The 10-year Treasury sank to 2.35% this week, and the chicks are at it again – this time saying recession is nigh as central banks get ready to ease.

Remember what CBs do. When an economy is firing on all cylinders, jobs being created, inflation rising and wages pressures growing, the bankers throttle back by hiking rates, making money more expensive, curtailing consumer borrowing and spending. That just took place – 9 increases for the Fed and 5 for our guys. But when an economy gets old and tired and starts heading for contraction, the bankers inject stimulus by dropping the cost of money so fools will use cheap mortgages to acquire real estate they can’t afford. The former is called tightening and the latter is easing (and house lust).

So here’s the news: the market is now giving odds the Fed will drop rates by at least a quarter point by the end of 2019. This comes after an inversion of the yield curve – which basically means savers are screwed.

A recession in 2020? Just in time for the Trump re-election campaign?

Don’t count on it. More on that soon.

126 comments ↓

#1 Andrewski on 03.27.19 at 4:22 pm

When my better half & I bought our first house while in our late 20’s, we were the only couple in our circle who even had RRSP’s, so anecdotally speaking, I agree that upping the withdrawal by $10K won’t do much because so few Mills even have an RRSP, let alone $35,000 in one.

#2 DON on 03.27.19 at 4:30 pm

Yikes! As the World turns.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-27/hong-kong-may-threaten-jail-for-developers-who-defy-vacancy-tax?cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_content=business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

#3 Buddy on 03.27.19 at 4:38 pm

HSBC 2.89% locked in.

What happens when this system of tightening and loosening no longer works? Is there another system?

#4 Stan Brooks on 03.27.19 at 4:41 pm

Who cares about this dump anymore anyway?

No amount of financial Viagra can resurrect this dead horse/Canadian housing.


As I walk through the valley of the shadow of death
I take a look at my life and realize there’s not much left
‘Coz I’ve been blastin’ and laughin’ so long, that
Even my mama thinks that my mind is gone

I’m an educated fool with money on my mind
Got my 10 in my hand and a gleam in my eye
I’m a loc’d out gangsta set trippin’ banger
And my homies is down so don’t arouse my anger, fool

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fPO76Jlnz6c

#5 Grumpy Panda on 03.27.19 at 4:41 pm

It has been a long time since we saw people losing homes. Maybe this time it is different. At least until the elections are over.

#6 Red_falcon on 03.27.19 at 4:45 pm

Recession? Budget? Dividends are the way to go! And um, first!!!

#7 Spia on 03.27.19 at 4:46 pm

With Australia experiencing a decline in housing and being in the same boat as Canada and Sweden, how are we not going to experience a severe recession? The banks represent a disproportionate amount of the market. When houses go down, they are on the hook with mortgages. With the economy going down they are on the hook with bad loans, bad car loans, bad consumer loans, etc. Why keep money in the canadian markets at 20% of a balanced portfolio given the situation. Any market safe?

#8 The real Kip (Ret) on 03.27.19 at 4:48 pm

Yeah yeah. Still think that $23-trillion US national debt is no problem? Taxpayers will have to suck it up? Get ready for QE-4. There is no exit strategy.

#9 PeterfromCalgary on 03.27.19 at 5:01 pm

Justin Trudeau is desperate the change the channel from his corrupt friends at SNC-Lavalin.

Canadians are smarter than that and won’t let him turn the channel with some silly mortgage tricks.

#10 Smartalox on 03.27.19 at 5:05 pm

So do you think that the Government bought a bunch of millennial votes for not much more than the cost of ink, paper, and travel to a couple of photo ops? Sounds like a shrewd move to me. Better than adding millions to the deficit, certainly.

I still think, however, that the government home-buying plan is tailor made, not for 30-somethings in major urban centres, but for people in remote and northern communities, where cultures and traditions don’t include personal ownership of primary residences, and the ‘personal wealth creation’ opportunities that such experience can bring.

Members of such communities might be unable to secure bank financing to purchase existing homes, much less obtain investment – grade capital to build new ones for the purpose of selling.

By taking a stake in the transaction, CMHC is effectively acting like the ‘bank of mom’, co-signing the mortgage loan, while being on the hook in the event of default.
‘Mom’ stays on the title until the mortgage is paid, or, as is more likely, the home is sold.

#11 Linda on 03.27.19 at 5:12 pm

Even if only 20,000 qualify/apply for CHMAP it still isn’t a program I want my tax dollars to be used for. Good government does not assist its citizens to commit debt suicide. Nice to know that the program as proposed is unlikely to draw much interest, if for no other reason than the fact it is not a good deal for the applicants as outlined in todays post.

As for the Fed dropping rates, I’ve read that Trump didn’t want them to be increased in the first place so if rates drop expect the Donald to emit a few victory tweets – especially during an election year.

As for debt drenched Canucks, time to drop the puck & get on with getting the household debt under control. If rates are indeed going back down, those who do want fiscal freedom during their lifetimes had best grab that life preserver & bail out while they still can.

#12 SoggyShorts on 03.27.19 at 5:14 pm

#211 n1tro on 03.27.19 at 4:10 pm
#201 SoggyShorts on 03.27.19 at 2:55 pm
#169 NoName on 03.27.19 at 7:51 am
@short shorts and violent crime and few deep thoughts

How about I stab you for a bit after forcing you to unlock your phone where I would go on my shopping spree as you lay there bleeding out? Screen auto turns off or each purchase requires verification? No problem, I have your severed finger in my pocket!

**************************
Yeah…I don’t think that happens much. I mean you could cut off someone’s face (and eyes) to unlock the facial recognition that new tablets use, but I think that might be rarer than simple cash muggings.

#13 The Wet One on 03.27.19 at 5:21 pm

Why not a bone crushing recession for the shambling mound of feculence that presently occupies the office of the POTUS?

It’d help move that stinking pile of filth out.

PLEASE!!!!

LET IT HAPPEN!!!!

Or would you rather the horror of 4 more years of a walking talking pile of poop rule the most powerful country in the world, with all the negatives that entails?

Seriously.

#14 You know on 03.27.19 at 5:23 pm

S nation of slaves with no paper money no privacy and no love..pfft…what s world..the business man with BIS rules the world T&T puppets

#15 Shawn Allen on 03.27.19 at 5:31 pm

Who’s Afraid of the Big Bad U.S. Debt?

#8 The real Kip (Ret) on 03.27.19 at 4:48 pm

Yeah yeah. Still think that $23-trillion US national debt is no problem?

***********************************

Well, apparently, the bond market is not afraid of it and is willing to lend money to the U.S. government at as Garth just said 2.35% per year. The bod market apparently does not see much risk of currency debasement or any inability of the U.S. economy to generate the taxes to service that debt.

But that is just the opinion of the bond market. What does it know? It could be wrong and you could be right.

Was it President Bill Clinton who said in his next life he would like to have REAL power like the bond market?

#16 T-Rev on 03.27.19 at 5:38 pm

Guven the 10pct:5pct new:resale equity stake that the bank of JT is willing to take, I could see this boosting demand for newer homes vs resales. This in turn could drive developer sales and profits, encouraging more building. Basically, it’s a way of subsidizing and incentivizing the development community Gartho. How popular it ends up being is anyone’s guess- if I was a moister, I think I’d be all over a co-signer like the federal government.

Wholy agree on the “no recession until after November 2020 call”. With collusion and any chance of impeachment now behind him, Trump is just getting started. Despite Democrat attempts to reign him in, the man is going to go on tear with respect to goosing the econmony, debt be damned and whether it’s in the long term interests of the country or not. He knows if he sails into the next election still riding a strong economy, he’s a lock for a second term. There will be a China trade deal. And interest rates are going to lower a bit, then stabilize. Taxes may be lower by this time next year. Stay balanced, stay invested.

#17 ronh on 03.27.19 at 5:41 pm

What happened to the 6% mortgages we were told was coming? (sarc)

#18 yorkville renter on 03.27.19 at 5:45 pm

I said it last week – a good move to support first time buyers NOT in The 6ix or LM… also, selfishly, I’m happy to get an interest-free loan of $35k for a downpayment… plus the wife, we’re up to 70k and now it gets interesting!

#19 prairie person on 03.27.19 at 5:47 pm

What are they doing? It seems like every time they announce something, they put their foot in it. I don’t get it. They must have lots of high priced help. There must have been a meeting to decide on the trip to India. Who thought that was a good idea? Who thought Lavalin was a good idea? Who thought this mortgage plan was a good idea? I’ve left out ten other things. JT says he is just the front man. He’s the PR person. Other people do the work. Who are these other people? Butts? He must have been in deep to have removed himself.

#20 Cut Rates Prices Rise on 03.27.19 at 5:47 pm

When interest rates dropped a mere 50 basis points in 2015, and everyone said rates could not go down any further, an unprecedented orgy of buying took place.

A drop in rates signalled to everyone that the era of low rates was going nowhere. While a 50 basis point cut was predicted to goose markets by 10%, we saw that prices went up 30-40% in the hottest markets like TO, Victoria and Vancouver.

Get ready for the price increases to resume once the rate cut – previously rejected as impossible – materializes this year! The central bankers are sending the ‘all clear to invest in real estate’ signal.

Real estate is an unstoppable juggernaut. So much for the half decade of fearmongering of rising rates. If the best that Canada can do is 125 basis point increase after a decade of emergency low rates, soon to be 100 basis points after the forthcoming cut, then we are a truly pathetic lot. A lot of moaning and mashing of teeth for nothing.

#21 TS on 03.27.19 at 5:49 pm

#7 Spia “When houses go down, they are on the hook with mortgages. With the economy going down they are on the hook with bad loans, bad car loans, bad consumer loans, etc.”

——————————————————-

It is actually much worse than that. The banks are only on the hook if there is more than 20% equity in the place. So they can hold out for a while without losing anything. Guess who foots the bill if there is less than 20% down and you default? Hint, it isn’t the bank. Hope you are feeling charitable.

#22 n1tro on 03.27.19 at 5:50 pm

#12 SoggyShorts on 03.27.19 at 5:14 pm
#211 n1tro on 03.27.19 at 4:10 pm
#201 SoggyShorts on 03.27.19 at 2:55 pm
#169 NoName on 03.27.19 at 7:51 am
@short shorts and violent crime and few deep thoughts

How about I stab you for a bit after forcing you to unlock your phone where I would go on my shopping spree as you lay there bleeding out? Screen auto turns off or each purchase requires verification? No problem, I have your severed finger in my pocket!
**************************
Yeah…I don’t think that happens much. I mean you could cut off someone’s face (and eyes) to unlock the facial recognition that new tablets use, but I think that might be rarer than simple cash muggings.
—————–
Of course it doesn’t happen much. My point is that criminals are criminals. Cashless society just means they will violently take something else of value. Kids were being beat or killed for their Air Jordans when I was in highschool. Now we have Canada Goose and iPhone muggings.

#23 Midnights on 03.27.19 at 5:57 pm

Big 6 banks downgraded to ‘sell’ by bearish analyst

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/big-6-banks-downgraded-to-sell-by-bearish-analyst-194135054.html

#24 Debtslavecreator on 03.27.19 at 5:59 pm

Savers better hold a healthy portion in USD
Look into ZTS
As most will find out over the next 24 months or so, there’s a reason your currency is nicknamed the Loonie
Look at what loons are known for – diving DOWN

#25 dakkie on 03.27.19 at 6:01 pm

The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America Deflate Further

https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/the-most-splendid-housing-bubbles-in-america-deflate-further/

#26 AK on 03.27.19 at 6:02 pm

“A recession in 2020?”
=====================================

History says that there has never been a recession with a Fed. rate of 2.5%.

Can it still happen? I doubt it, but we will see.

#27 tccontrarian on 03.27.19 at 6:02 pm

“The Flop”?

And here I thought you were going to give us an update on the poster “…about to Flop”)
///

“So here’s the news: the market is now giving odds the Fed will drop rates by at least a quarter point by the end of 2019. This comes after an inversion of the yield curve – which basically means savers are screwed.” GT

A few months ago, the market was giving us “odds” that there would be 3-4 more raises in 2019 – which only shows that “the markets” can be wrong.

So, who’s to say that they’re right this time? These are not ‘free’ markets anyway; with government/Fed intervention the markets move on policy and don’t have to adhere to ‘fundamental’ economic principles.
I trust them not. I consider it a more prudent way to approach them.
Also, I Trust in Gold – more than paper, anyway! I know people who got into gold equities in 2003-4, and made quazillions by 2011 (the year chosen to make comparisons around here). The smart ones cashed in near the highs – the ones who were buying in 2011 have had their arses handed to them. No-one ever said it’s wise to be buying at ‘peaks’ – this holds for ALL assets!

TCC

#28 Reximus on 03.27.19 at 6:03 pm

Garth, why would the govt want to be seen as trying
to ‘goose the market’? The very cohort they are trying to appease hates the govt policies that they feel made housing so expensive to begin with

#29 n1tro on 03.27.19 at 6:04 pm

As a continuation of those who say cash is for low level criminals and their activities. This may be true except for the “low level” part. Was it not a highest and “honorable” member of Parliament that took an envelope stuffed with $200K in cash from an arms dealer and “gee golly, I thought it was a gift” once it was revealed?

I’m all for a cashless society and even the government viewing all my transactions as long as I am a law abiding citizen, I can do the same to any one else. Wouldn’t that be great, full transparency. People already green with envy can be more green. Personal privacy laws be damned.

#30 n1tro on 03.27.19 at 6:11 pm

#19 prairie person on 03.27.19 at 5:47 pm
What are they doing? It seems like every time they announce something, they put their foot in it. I don’t get it. They must have lots of high priced help.
————–
You equate high priced help with actually knowing what they are doing. Think of it like a mutual fund sales guy doing your financial planning and getting sub par results but still paying for the full fees.

#31 Reximus on 03.27.19 at 6:16 pm

#18 Yorkville renter

—-

you’d be shocked at the equity 30-somethings have to buy homes in the neighborhood I live in (beaches west). Semis over 1mil deals every day…some all cash…not non-residents etc

#32 not 1st on 03.27.19 at 6:49 pm

Trump has to deal with some democrat and deep state traitors first while the economy purrs a little slower, but later this yr when he gets is china deal, the booster rockets will kick in and the US will go into the stratosphere and will take the top spot in GDP for the next 100 yrs. China will just become a permanent indebted provider of Walmart junk.

Meanwhile navel gazing SJW Canada will be road kill. The liberals have totally ignored and in fact gutted the factors of production and our resource industries. People will have to learn the hard way, your rights, privileges and what ever else floats your SJW boat, all exist at the leisure of the economy. See how concerned you are about equality when you have no toilet paper like they do in Venezuala.

#33 The Real Mark on 03.27.19 at 6:49 pm

why would the govt want to be seen as trying
to ‘goose the market’? The very cohort they are trying to appease hates the govt policies that they feel made housing so expensive to begin with

They basically have to… As nearly $1T of CMHC subprime mortgage insurance policies are at risk of being called upon if the housing market melts down.

I think its a foregone conclusion that this isn’t the last we’ve heard of the Canadian housing crisis. Especially since we know that there is little to no “foreign money” participating, and the speculative excesses are almost entirely vested with Canadian speculators. Willingly and knowingly, but more often than not, unknowingly.

I know people who got into gold equities in 2003-4, and made quazillions by 2011 (the year chosen to make comparisons around here

Yup. Actually 2000 was probably the best year to get involved with that. XAU bottomed at around 41 at the time, today its what, 78? Meanwhile gold bullion has at least tripled. The other interesting thing about the sector is that its literally the only sector on the stock market you can buy at less than 1977 prices, in nominal terms.

#34 IM in C on 03.27.19 at 6:54 pm

Here in Calgary , the housing market has gone quiet!

#35 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.27.19 at 7:09 pm

@#34 IM in C
“Here in Calgary , the housing market has gone quiet!’

*****
Did you just get out of prison?
Didnt the housing sales market in Cowtown crash about 24 months ago?

#36 BigAl (Original) on 03.27.19 at 7:11 pm

#31 Reximus on 03.27.19 at 6:16 pm
#18 Yorkville renter

—-

you’d be shocked at the equity 30-somethings have to buy homes in the neighborhood I live in (beaches west). Semis over 1mil deals every day…some all cash…not non-residents etc
=====================

This is spot on.

I don’t understand all of the endless pandering and billions governments spend on helping youth with unemployment.

Every private and public sector organization these days is just handing them sweetheart jobs at massive salaries, jobs like senior director, senior consultant with little experience or even education. And I’m not talking at all about STEM jobs but everything else.

Governments ludicrously act like a 15-20 percent youth unemployment rate is some sort of doomsday crisis. It’s not, many of those 15-20 percent don’t want to work. I knew many like that in my 20s. Once they get off their lazy butts at around 29 or 30, some company like CN or the government will fall all over themselves to gift the youthful genius who didn’t even bother with postsecondary a 150K directorship.

#37 Penny Henny on 03.27.19 at 7:12 pm

#18 yorkville renter on 03.27.19 at 5:45 pm
I said it last week – a good move to support first time buyers NOT in The 6ix or LM… also, selfishly, I’m happy to get an interest-free loan of $35k for a downpayment… plus the wife, we’re up to 70k and now it gets interesting!
////

Are you and the wife buying TWO houses. How do plan on getting 35k each interest free loan?

#38 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.27.19 at 7:13 pm

Speaking of todays title “The Flop”

Lets give a big shout out to the Flopster for all his meaningful work on getting us real numbers on real estate sales…
Real Estate Troll’s may have shut him down but the truth cant be silenced.
Real estate sales in the Lower Brain Land are like this blog….
Pooched…

Happy housing CRASH realtors.

#39 Penny Henny on 03.27.19 at 7:13 pm

Just noticed that the comments here are so much better in the evening when everyone is drinking.

#40 Smoking Man on 03.27.19 at 7:22 pm

Recession in 2020 in USA?

Not likely, Trump will take Corp taxes to zero before he let that happen.

He’s like super man. Can move the markets with a single tweet.

Now Canada. Different story. The debt levels are crippling. Take rates to zero not much will happen.

Let’s not forget NAFTA not ratified with resistance growing in Canada and USA.

#41 Howard on 03.27.19 at 7:23 pm

#13 The Wet One on 03.27.19 at 5:21 pm

Or would you rather the horror of 4 more years of a walking talking pile of poop rule the most powerful country in the world, with all the negatives that entails?

—————————————————-

I agree that he is a pile of poop, but it’s a bit grandiose to call Canada the most powerful country in the world.

#42 Sail away on 03.27.19 at 7:23 pm

#29 n1tro on 03.27.19 at 6:04 pm

I’m all for a cashless society and even the government viewing all my transactions as long as I am a law abiding citizen, I can do the same to any one else. Wouldn’t that be great, full transparency. People already green with envy can be more green. Personal privacy laws be damned.

**************************
Do you really have that much trust in government? Are you still in favour of full transparency if the government itself is not law-abiding? History, including Canada’s, is filled with governmental duplicity. Full transparency would also mean only the criminals have any level of privacy.

#43 Kevinhole Eerie on 03.27.19 at 7:29 pm

DELETED

#44 ts on 03.27.19 at 7:34 pm

@#20 Cut Rates

Wow! You sound like a desperate real estate agent. Back in 2015 there was no stress test to keep away the fools. As far as I know it still exists and not going away any time soon. Also, if there is a recession, there will be job losses. Besides, a lot a volatility this year – Brexit, China (no soya trade – much $ lost), shaky Nafta etc.

#45 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.27.19 at 7:38 pm

@#200 expat
“BTW did you know that your smartphone records everything you do?”
+++++

Well…
If Russian hackers want to watch me play solitaire whilst I’m sitting on the toilet……
I just hope they file that tidbit of my personal info under…
Game on Throne

#46 conan on 03.27.19 at 8:16 pm

Moving to another continent if the orange one gets re elected. Probably do the same if Scheer wins a majority.

#47 -=jwk=- on 03.27.19 at 8:16 pm

I don’t understand all of the endless pandering and billions governments spend on helping youth with unemployment.

Every private and public sector organization these days is just handing them sweetheart jobs at massive salaries, jobs like senior director, senior consultant with little experience or even education. And I’m not talking at all about STEM jobs but everything else.

Governments ludicrously act like a 15-20 percent youth unemployment rate is some sort of doomsday crisis. It’s not, many of those 15-20 percent don’t want to work. I knew many like that in my 20s. Once they get off their lazy butts at around 29 or 30, some company like CN or the government will fall all over themselves to gift the youthful genius who didn’t even bother with postsecondary a 150K directorship.

Hilarious, and terribly sad at the same time too. You’ve been duped.

#48 AJ on 03.27.19 at 8:24 pm

If the government (CHMC) is on the title it may be liable for part of the taxes, maintenance, condo fees etc.?

#49 45north on 03.27.19 at 8:27 pm

No wonder a similar program rolled out in BC by the last government crashed and burned. Only 20% of the expected applicants materialized there, and it was finally put out of its misery. A fair guess is that six months from now, when the SEM is finally available, it will be a nothingburger to the market.

which is what Whip said last week:

https://www.greaterfool.ca/2019/03/20/huh-4/#comment-642329

It may be a nothingburger but it’s going to cost. As someone who worked in the Federal Government for 40 years, I’ve seen programs costing $100 million and this looks worse. It’s in the budget. It’s supposed to be implemented one month before the election. In October. Who’s going to say no?

here’s complexity from the point of view of the buyer:

More to consider: with a SEM, the government (through CMHC) will be on title as partial owner of your house. However don’t expect the feds to pay any of the land transfer tax or routine household overhead. Plus you’ll have to foot the extra legal costs of a more complicated deed upon closing. And don’t forget the as-yet unknown complexity, cost or delay involved in applying for a shared-equity mortgage – important factors to understand even before an offer to purchase is made.

But from the point of view of CMHC, all this complexity has to be answered by civil servants who write and oversee rules. A lot of rules. That deal with mortgages, banks, provinces, cities, municipalities. Rules that have to acknowledge existing laws and practices, in ten provinces. Rules that are applied by civil servants.

There’s not enough time. It’s too risky. Too costly.

#50 Blacksheep on 03.27.19 at 8:45 pm

Lobster Man # 212,

In your link, Dawn Desjardins (RBC) @ 1:05 states:

“Because financial institutions, fund themselves in the short term”

https://business.financialpost.com/investing/why-everybody-is-talking-about-the-inverted-yield-curve-and-what-it-means-to-canada?video_autoplay=true

This is the traditional, old school thinking that we have been taught all our lives, but this thinking has been proven wrong, since the globally accepted, 2014 BoE pdf was released.

Here’s the same, false thinking again, from one of the hundreds, of misleading sources online:

“At the most basic level, what banks do is fairly simple. Banks accept deposits from customers, raise capital from investors or lenders, and then use that money to make loans”

https://www.investopedia.com/university/banking-system/banking-system1.asp

That’s simply not how it works, this is:

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/quarterly-bulletin/2014/money-creation-in-the-modern-economy.pdf

The Bank of England pdf document states:

“Whenever a bank makes a loan, it simultaneously creates a matching deposit in the borrower’s bank account, thereby creating new money.”

The BoE doc, accurately supports the first question I posed to you. Respond or ignore this It matters not, I’m comfortable knowing, I wrote truth.

#51 Kevinhole Eerie on 03.27.19 at 9:04 pm

My pate may be void and desolate, but that’s because I need more space for the suck-ups, only so many people can find room to kiss my a$$.

#52 georgist on 03.27.19 at 9:05 pm

> Remember what CBs do. When an economy is firing on all cylinders, jobs being created, inflation rising and wages pressures growing, the bankers throttle back by hiking rates, making money more expensive, curtailing consumer borrowing and spending.

Why are they doing this? To stop workers from being able to receive most of the value they create. A few years of that and they’d pay off their mortgage and refuse to work for the capitalists.

Anyone else got a great reason why central banks step in to stop full employment?

#53 georgist on 03.27.19 at 9:10 pm

> Real estate is an unstoppable juggernaut.

What are you talking about? Where is this vehicle going, outstripping wages, outstripping rent.

It’s simply the language of the zealot.

#54 Speculation on 03.27.19 at 9:17 pm

Uppa, uppa, uppa!!!!!

#55 n1tro on 03.27.19 at 9:20 pm

#42 Sail away on 03.27.19 at 7:23 pm
#29 n1tro on 03.27.19 at 6:04 pm

**************************
Do you really have that much trust in government? Are you still in favour of full transparency if the government itself is not law-abiding? History, including Canada’s, is filled with governmental duplicity. Full transparency would also mean only the criminals have any level of privacy.
————
I was being facetious. I know there is no way in hell the government would allow the magnifying glass to be pointed at themselves. But wouldn’t it be great? We can finally drop the whole pay inequality myth when everyone’s pay is made public. :)

#56 Rexx Rock on 03.27.19 at 9:41 pm

I knew the fairy tale of interest hikes were coming to a end.Not only will there be rate cuts,we will exacty be the same as Europe and Japan.Get used to it,its forever.Good times,real estate and stocks going the moon again.Nobody saves anymore,there is no incentive unless you use it to speculate in the stock market or real estate.If your conservitive and only want to invest in a balanced etf portfolio with a mere 3% or 4% return go ahead.You can still lose 25% or 35% of your balance just like stocks in a bear market.Learn to short everything because its great for gapping stocks in the premarket.Pot stocks have a high borrowing rate so I only short for a day or two.One day the masses will relize how evil the CB screwed the people.But it will be to late.

#57 Hugh Jassel on 03.27.19 at 9:45 pm

Garth you’re playing defence. Remember when you thought because the fed said they were going to raise rates, that they actually would??? Stop listening to those dummies.

A cut to 0% and QE4 are required to keep this bubble economy going – and when they do that, they US$ will fall tremendously. You’ve been warned.

I try to protect those that want to listen – yet there are so few…..

#58 What I think I might know on 03.27.19 at 9:49 pm

It is definitely NOT news that rates will be coming down. In all probability, they will be going down to below zero in the not-to-distant future.

Savers, get ready for further confiscation of your wealth. The government wasn’t happy with simple wealth transference from the conscientious savers to profligate borrowers.

#59 What I think I might know on 03.27.19 at 9:54 pm

#53 georgist on 03.27.19 at 9:10 pm

First you ask what is he talking about? Then you dismiss him as a zealot. Why? He is correct. RE in the GTA is a juggernaut. It certainly has been and will likely continue to be so. Wages don’t matter. Debt doesn’t matter. Fundamentals don’t matter. Not when foreign money is yearning for a place to roost. The Canadian economy is perfect for that. A stable society that doesn’t look too critically at foreign investment. This gasbag has a lot more capacity to inflate.

#60 Shawn Allen on 03.27.19 at 9:55 pm

Blacksheep is horrified at how money is created

“Whenever a bank makes a loan, it simultaneously creates a matching deposit in the borrower’s bank account, thereby creating new money.”

*************************
Banks create money! The horrors!. Maybe Blacksheep also never really got over finding out at a young age how babies are made.

Strangely horrified by simple facts.

Also in the example above the customer is financing his own loan for the bank, until the moment she spends it and it gets transferred to another bank and the creating bank has to attract (that is borrow) a deposit from another customer to fund that loan.

#61 renter in Surrey on 03.27.19 at 9:56 pm

So when we get into ZIRP/NIRP territory what’s gonna happen to $600K townhouses in LM?

Will they go up to $1mil+?

Shall I buy now?

#62 georgist on 03.27.19 at 10:17 pm

> hey will be going down to below zero in the not-to-distant future.

> Savers, get ready for further confiscation of your wealth

Savers have wealth eroded when there are negative *real terms* interest rates, which we have had for a long time. When nominal rates are below inflation you are losing money. No need for BoC to have a negative base rate.

The housing markets in the USA and Canada will drop, due to demographics. It doesn’t matter how low rates go, the number of sellers will dwarf the number of buyers.

Demographics are the reason for the post 1997 bubble, and will be the reason for the end of it. BoC cannot force people to borrow, they will be pushing on a string.

#63 Barb on 03.27.19 at 10:21 pm

“The finance minister has made it clear a property purchased using a SEM will result in Ottawa sharing in any capital gains…”

———————————————————

Tell me how these politicians can actually look at their reflection in the mirror while brushing their teeth.

Without cringing, that is.

#64 Basil Fawlty on 03.27.19 at 10:32 pm

Savers are screwed due to the recent inversion of the yield curve?

Savers have been totally screwed since the bank bailouts and QE of 2008. People fail to understand the gravity of the financial malfeasance of the last eleven years. We have been in a depression, which was papered over by an increase in world debt of $70T. Yes, $70T, does anyone grasp what has happened? There is no fix.

#65 georgist on 03.27.19 at 10:44 pm

> Wages don’t matter. Debt doesn’t matter. Fundamentals don’t matter.

Zealot.

#66 Long-Time Lurker on 03.27.19 at 10:50 pm

It looks like Flop is still here but incognito (according to the photo). How ya doing, Flop?

>Hydrogen islands.

http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20190327-the-tiny-islands-leading-the-way-in-hydrogen-power

How hydrogen is transforming these tiny Scottish islands

By Diego Arguedas Ortiz in Stromness, Orkney Islands
28 March 2019

…Unlike petrol or marine diesel, burning hydrogen does not, in itself, produce any harmful by-products. Now, as we drive through Orkney’s capital of Kirkwall, hydrogen combines with oxygen inside the van to produce an electrical reaction that powers the engine. The only tailgate emission is pure water. In other words, there’s no air pollution and no greenhouse gas emissions (such as carbon dioxide) that contribute to global warming. Beyond cars, hydrogen could be used to heat buildings, power electrical facilities, propel trains, ferries and cargo ships and for industrial processes.

Another benefit of hydrogen? If you have too much, you can store and transport it at a large scale with relative ease. As one Bloomberg New Energy Finance consultant wrote in a column published last year, hydrogen “is one of the most promising ways of dealing with longer-term storage, beyond the minutes, hours or days that could be met by batteries”…

…But for Orkney, hydrogen via electricity works just fine. The islands already boast one of the highest densities of electric vehicles in the United Kingdom. And most crucially, thanks to sources like tidal and wave energy, Orkney creates more clean electricity that its inhabitants need. Even after exporting to the UK national grid, the islands’ winds, waves and tides generate about 130% of the electricity its population needs – all of it from clean sources…

…This curtailment annoys the Orcadians and it is also expensive for the communities that invest their in clean energy. They would rather keep the turbines moving or, alternatively, find a way to use them. So residents came up with an idea: what if we use surplus clean energy to produce hydrogen?….

#67 Ronster on 03.27.19 at 11:07 pm

@Buddy on 03.27.19 at 4:38 pm

What happens when this system of tightening and loosening no longer works? Is there another system?

————————————————————–
Yes, there is another system … its called “chaos”, often referred to by its more technical definition known as “recession”.

#68 n1tro on 03.27.19 at 11:35 pm

Check out our tax dollars at work in this job posting with the federal government. Some of the highlights include:

“Are you a Gryffindor (brave, loyal, courageous and adventurous), a Ravenclaw (wise, creative, clever and knowledgeable) a Hufflepuff (hard working, dedicated, fair, patient) or a Slytherin (resourceful, ambitious, determined and crave leadership)?

No matter what ‘house’ you belong to, Treasury Board of Canada Secretariat (TBS) has various teams that we would love to use our ‘sorting hat’ to place you into. We are looking for strong and motivated candidates that are interested in making an impact on Canadian citizens. With our Talent Management Program, we will help you grow, learn and further develop your magical career within the Public Service. Come and let TBS become your home away from home!

Contact information
AS-02 Inventory team / “Dumbledore’s army”
[email protected]

AS-02 band pays $57K to $62K

https://emploisfp-psjobs.cfp-psc.gc.ca/psrs-srfp/applicant/page1800?poster=1279695

#69 expat on 03.28.19 at 12:21 am

Garth I agree that many here including me said rates would continue to rise. I still do.

A momentary pause is in a chart is perfectly normal. We are seeing an intermediate decline. Whether it’s a stock, bond, whatever. The trend is the trend.

In this case it’s politics. It’s a news event for a quarter or three. Nothing more imho.

In fact any sucker that buys into the dip will face rates in the future that will bankrupt. Rates paused many times as they went to 20%.

CB’s are stuck due to a political cycle. Rates rose far too fast for the deadbeats to cope. The smart ones will use this opportunity to cut their debt. The bill of village idiots will pile on.

Crisis is not an event – it’s a process….

Just in time news makes people forget trend.
No news here imho

#70 expat on 03.28.19 at 12:23 am

Rates rose too fast. This is a pause in trend imho. Nothing more.

#71 Smoking Man on 03.28.19 at 12:25 am

SoCal is heaven.

Getting good at surfing and to my astonishment we are making lots of freinds here.

Wired is cool here.

Our nabours hear me talking to myself late in the evening when I’m reading back to myself shit I just wrote. They think I’m amazing or so they say.

I don’t miss the plastic faces and the imprisoned bay street souls. Those trapped free spirits locked up in a self made cage.

Dont miss it one bit.

You can be weird here, its ok, having freinds here is not a job like it was back in Toronto.

Think it’s the deep blue skies and the dark shadow the brilliant sun casts here.

Loving life…

#72 Gordon on 03.28.19 at 12:26 am

Oh dear, just like the hammer coming down on the fake climate scare, now that Obama isn’t able to spend billions on hype and propaganda, for the sole purposes of a) creating false hope among private and quango carpet baggers be, that his kind ( leftist looks who think sucking up subsidies is the same as creating wealth through honest work) could make billions from shipping a trillion overseas obstensibly for wealth distribution and sustainable development to their own shell compsnies and b) have those same carpet baggers send hundreds of millions back in the form of political donations to The Clinton Foundation, The Obama Foundation, The Trudeau Foundation to crush any opposition with cold hard cash.

The likes of Vivienne Krausse uncovered the tax records of the evil cabal supporting the Leftist Lunacy to kill Democracy. Soros used a cute front called Tides to funnel hundreds of millions into newly created orgs that made it look like a Grass Roots ground swell of opinion was forming against Harper, Alberta, Energy, Resources etc etc. There law suits dragging out our court courts by native groups who didn’t even know they were involved.

Two and three man advocacy groups appeared and bought time in major media making them look big, Gerry Butts became famous. Outside mostly American money flooded Canada to buy our opinion and our Democracy. We know this to be a fact. But, sadly, this monster revelation and the proved up tax records that saw collusion beyond anything Trump was accused of was a big yawn in Canada. We are just that stupid. But, Round Two is beginning. The sheep have been fleeced, the evidence is presented, the prosection has had their say. Now the defense gets to have it’s say.

It’s very much like a courtroom scenario where the crime is finally uncovered. We know Obama and Soros and Rockefeller and Steyer used many proxies to collude and defraud. We know Trudeau took their money and have evidence against all the other players who were paid to support the biggest lies ever told, like Suzuki for one, we know because we have the tax records of the people who paid him.

Trump is turning the tables on the bad guys, like a good lawyer who waiting patiently to hear out the mistakes of an overzealous prosection.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/us-politics/article-second-us-senate-committee-moves-to-investigate-the-mueller-probe-as/

It’s all going to come out, funny how that works.

#73 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.28.19 at 12:39 am

#39 Penny Henny on 03.27.19 at 7:13 pm
Just noticed that the comments here are so much better in the evening when everyone is drinking.
————-
You’ve been following this blog for quite a while.
And you’ve just noticed .
Remember the old saying:
In Vino Veritas.

#74 NoName on 03.28.19 at 12:41 am

@66 hydrogen and electric vehicles

Its a good start for that island.

That symbiosis hydrogen and electricity can probably work there due to surplas energy that is generated by turbines, its unique to that island, problem is you cant scale it up to whole country. Hydrogen energy density its not that dense you’ll need some really high pressure vessels to contain enough hydrogen to be useful.

Here is an article, very long read for me but video did a trick of saving me from reading.

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/08/11/hydrogen-fuel-cell-battery-electric-vehicles-technology-rundown/

#75 Blacksheep on 03.28.19 at 12:44 am

Shawn of the banks, jumps the shark # 60,

“Blacksheep is horrified at how money is created’

“Whenever a bank makes a loan, it simultaneously creates a matching deposit in the borrower’s bank account, thereby creating new money.”

*************************
“Banks create money! The horrors!.”

“Maybe Blacksheep also never really got over finding out at a young age how babies are made.”

“Strangely horrified by simple facts.”
——————–
How can you tell when a party has completely lost, an online debate? They abandon the topic being discussed and attempt to get personal.

Shawn, Buddy, show me where I made one negative comment (it’s all archived) about banks creating money in the last 12 months and I will never type another word here.

Ever.

I state facts, backed/linked to documents, that’s it. Does that make me smarter than you, probably not, but at least I’m, being honest…

#76 Dolce Vita on 03.28.19 at 12:52 am

“A recession in 2020? Just in time for the Trump re-election campaign?”

The Americans are expecting a slow down in growth, Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimates are bouncing around like a ping pong ball from near 0% to 1.5% in the past month alone.

Can you say “UNCERTAINTY”?

Mr. Markets FRIEND, or Fiend?

Canada is trade dependent on the US (2016 data):

$377 B Total Exports, 73% to America.
$326 B Total Imports, 46% from America.
$1.54 Trillion Total Canadian GDP.

Overall and on average since 2015, Canada has had trade balance of -$2 Billion. Largely due to falling export oil prices. Probably WHY GOV’s BLIND EYE to incoming foreign capital be it in RE or otherwise.

In the INTERIM the Canadian pocketbook DEPENDS on Trump managing America well economically. If the Americans “CATCH A COLD” economically, Canada “gets an INFARCTION”.

Don’t forget about THAT REALITY UNTIL 2020 all you Fanboyz and Fangurls of yet another hopeful Trump demise until then.

No immunity from Internet trash talking, for once you will get to put YOUR MONEY WHERE YOUR MOUTH IS.

Buona Mattina Garth.

#77 Howard on 03.28.19 at 1:35 am

LOL.

80 David Dunlap Circle in Toronto. A townhouse.

Was listed at $999,900 for several months. No takers. Listing suspended.

Just relisted at…$999,888.

#78 Paul on 03.28.19 at 3:18 am

#9 PeterfromCalgary on 03.27.19 at 5:01 pm
Justin Trudeau is desperate the change the channel from his corrupt friends at SNC-Lavalin.

Canadians are smarter than that and won’t let him turn the channel with some silly mortgage tricks.
————————————————————————————————
Ha, Some silly mortgage trick? Canadians put him in
office. For some weed and some slight of hand.

#79 Gordon on 03.28.19 at 3:25 am

Is there a permanent culture of entitlement among Canada’s entrenched most elite? The rich in CNada are increasingly being shown as scofflaws, entitled above the law and entirely dismissive of the law.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/27/seagrams-heiress-clare-bronfman-faints-when-asked-about-avenatti.html

We observe the actions and statements of Justin Trudeau and those around him and draw conclusions. Does Justin have any respect for the law? His actions don’t provide us any assurance.

#80 ShawnG in TO on 03.28.19 at 4:59 am

#66 Long-Time Lurker on 03.27.19 at 10:50 pm
> Another benefit of hydrogen? If you have too much, you can store and transport it at a large scale with relative ease.

oh the humanity !

#81 Under the radar on 03.28.19 at 5:12 am

In almost 30 years of closing deals in central 416 , I see people loaded with mortgages , most financing between 70 and 80 percent . The percentage of millennials paying cash is tiny. Even the ones who get the help from Mom and Dad usually only get the downstroke. The all cash deal is exceedingly rare and the vast majority of recent416 buyers are seriously burdened with six or seven figure debt .

#82 Gordon on 03.28.19 at 5:26 am

Crashing rates are great news for dividend paying value stocks. Competition for yield just turned into a one sided gunfight . Who in thier right mind would buy bonds at this point? Top of the range for ulility etc. As the money pours in the doorway will become crowded of course with buyers who’ll drive prices up and yields down ….boo hoo. Some of my favorite growth stocks have been on tear. Life is good.

#83 Captain Uppa on 03.28.19 at 7:03 am

>>#54 Speculation on 03.27.19 at 9:17 pm
Uppa, uppa, uppa!!!!!>>

*HIGH FIVE*

#84 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.28.19 at 7:25 am

Two years of fruitless negotiations….
The Prime Minister offers to quit…
Brexit
Still deadlocked.
With a final two week extension for the world’s fifth largest economy….before they crash out of the EU trade agreements.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu/mays-offer-to-quit-fails-to-break-britains-brexit-stalemate-idUSKCN1R80RM

And even “Big Ben” cant say “tick tock” because its also been sidelined…

https://www.latimes.com/world/la-fg-big-ben-london-repair-20170821-story.html

#85 50 YEARS OF MAPLE LEAF INCOMPETENCE! on 03.28.19 at 8:32 am

Bwahahaaahaaaaahaaaaaaaa!!

Pathetic Make Believes CHOKE AGAIN!

Flyers 5 Losers 4

(The Flyers have actually won Stanley Cups in the last 50 years – Imagine that, Toronturds!)

Toronto has now lost 6 out of the last 9 games!

How deplorable!

And today the Blow Jays open their season at home, and they won’t even come close to a sellout! People there are still delusional, but now they’re all BROKE as their house values teeter on the brink of collapse!

That team has been pathetic for a quarter century, and now its owners, the Rogers cable cartel, is too cheap to spend on quality player contracts to give them a chance.

But don’t worry Toronturds – your cable bills will keep going uppa, uppa, UPPA! LOL!

Perfect bait and switch for GTAholes. Just as your Make Believes choke and vomit up another season, you can now distract yourselves with the delusion that your awful baseball team will do better!

And now your local politicians and the premier are talking about a “new subway” system there.

Bwahaahaaahaaaa!! That’ll only take another 30 years!!
They can’t even get their spending and taxes together to fix what you have now.

What an unlivable, ridiculously overpriced garbage dump of losers the GTA is. So sad :(

But, Enjoy Your Potholes :)

#86 not 1st on 03.28.19 at 8:50 am

This is our leadership?

https://globalnews.ca/news/5104937/justin-trudeau-protester-liberal-fundraiser/?utm_source=Article&utm_medium=MostPopular&utm_campaign=2014

#87 JB on 03.28.19 at 9:19 am

#71 Smoking Man on 03.28.19 at 12:25 am

SoCal is heaven.
Getting good at surfing and to my astonishment we are making lots of freinds here.
Wired is cool here.
Our nabours hear me talking to myself late in the evening when I’m reading back to myself shit I just wrote. They think I’m amazing or so they say.
I don’t miss the plastic faces and the imprisoned bay street souls. Those trapped free spirits locked up in a self made cage.
Dont miss it one bit.
You can be weird here, its ok, having freinds here is not a job like it was back in Toronto.
Think it’s the deep blue skies and the dark shadow the brilliant sun casts here.
Loving life…
………………………………………………………………………
Really Smoking Man? You should be called flip flop man.

That’s not what “you” posted just this January and if I recall your entire mantra is that friends are a waste of time. Did you finally get into rehab and clean up your sorrowful excuse for a human life? Do you truly appreciate friends now? Did you join the scientologists? Jack Daniels stock just took a plunge everyone should unload now.

#86 Smoking Man on 01.16.19 at 11:43 pm
Friends are waste time and an obstacle in the quest for truth.
They are a boring distraction that keeps you from your mission.
Broom them get a good bottle and find it.

#88 dude on 03.28.19 at 9:32 am

@#71 Smoking Man on 03.28.19 at 12:25 am
SoCal is heaven.

Getting good at surfing and to my astonishment we are making lots of freinds here.

Wired is cool here.

Our nabours hear me talking to myself late in the evening when I’m reading back to myself shit I just wrote. They think I’m amazing or so they say.

I don’t miss the plastic faces and the imprisoned bay street souls. Those trapped free spirits locked up in a self made cage.

Dont miss it one bit.

You can be weird here, its ok, having freinds here is not a job like it was back in Toronto.

Think it’s the deep blue skies and the dark shadow the brilliant sun casts here.

Loving life…
______________________

Honestly man, it doesn’t sound like you like yourself much. always blaming everyone else. life is so grand where you are but back in TO not so great. You can’t outrun/drink your problems dude

#89 Another yellow vest movement on 03.28.19 at 9:44 am

@ 77 Howard

Here are are a few ideas for a true yellow vest movement:

1) Find out previous sold price of home and do not offer more than the speculator paid for the property.

2) Boycott any listing that has the token 8 in the listed price.

#90 Another Deckchair on 03.28.19 at 9:55 am

Hydrogen. Hmmm.

1) Hard (energy wise) to split H2O. The Shuttle People (NASA) burned Natural Gas to produce hydrogen for that big tank that the Shuttle was attached to. Using hydrolysis was waaay to expensive. So, burn carbon fuels to produce hydrogen.

2) Storing Hydrogen. A couple of issues. 1) it’ll go through many materials, so will leak. 2) It’s VERY reactive to oxygen, producing water, with lots of energy release. Anyone remember the Hindenburg story?

#91 dharma bum on 03.28.19 at 10:01 am

When an economy is firing on all cylinders, jobs being created, inflation rising and wages pressures growing, the bankers throttle back by hiking rates, making money more expensive, curtailing consumer borrowing and spending. But when an economy gets old and tired and starts heading for contraction, the bankers inject stimulus by dropping the cost of money so fools will use cheap mortgages to acquire real estate they can’t afford. – Garth
——————————————————————–

Not that I ever got into his stuff (I ain’t no genius, y’know), but that Shakespeare dude was onto something when he wrote:

“Neither a borrower nor a lender be; / For loan oft loses both itself and friend.” (Hamlet Act 1, Scene 3)

Wise, that long haired high foreheaded bearded dude.

#92 Steven Rowlandson on 03.28.19 at 10:24 am

It seems that excessive debt is a serious problem.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/businessweek/drowning-in-debt-freaked-out-canadians-brace-for-a-reckoning-1.1234735

#93 Eks dee Siple on 03.28.19 at 10:35 am

Re: Shawn Allen, manchild.
1. First they ignore you: “banks don’t create money out of thin air (meaning commercial banks don’t mint newly created money like central banks do, which of course is a straw-man argument also made by Garth at one point)
2. Then they laugh at you: “that guy over there thinks that banks create money out of thin air, and he probably still believes in Santa Claus, hahaha”
3. Then they fight you: “Of course banks create money (out of thin air), oh the horror blah blah blah
4. Then you win. Shawn will you please give it up?

#94 45north on 03.28.19 at 10:41 am

Howard: 80 David Dunlap Circle in Toronto. A townhouse.
Was listed at $999,900 for several months. No takers. Listing suspended.
Just relisted at…$999,888.

$2 savings

what an idiot

#95 Remembrancer on 03.28.19 at 10:43 am

#90 Another Deckchair on 03.28.19 at 9:55 am

Re: Hindenbattery

That’s worse then comparing a Corvette to a Corvair…
Pretty sure the new hydrogen fuel cells aren’t made of canvas coated in thermite…

#96 Macbeth, Act 5, Scene 5 on 03.28.19 at 10:52 am

#71 Smoker – “Time is the fire by which we burn” Your running out of time Smoker, and need a reset before its too late.

#97 Lillooet, BC on 03.28.19 at 10:52 am

Hi Flop:

Can you pass your files/folders to me?
I will try to keep doing what you have done!

Thanks

#98 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.28.19 at 10:57 am

#94 45north on 03.28.19 at 10:41 am
Howard: 80 David Dunlap Circle in Toronto. A townhouse.
Was listed at $999,900 for several months. No takers. Listing suspended.
Just relisted at…$999,888.

$2 savings

what an idiot
—————-
No idiot.
Tries to attract a certain superstitious clientele.

#99 not 1st on 03.28.19 at 11:17 am

Federal Politics: As Liberal support bleeds to other parties, CPC vote stays solid

http://angusreid.org/federal-issues-mar2019/

#100 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.28.19 at 11:18 am

Looks like US economy is already running out of steam.
Trump’s tax cuts have run its course.
Then Trump chastised the FED for raising rates.
And they stopped.
Is Mr. Market a Tump puppet?
http://m.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/usa-wirtschaftswachstum-verliert-deutlich-an-schwung-a-1260134.html

#101 Plastic Deplorables on 03.28.19 at 11:31 am

#71 Smoking Man on 03.28.19 at 12:25 am

SoCal is heaven.

Getting good at surfing and to my astonishment we are making lots of freinds here.

Wired is cool here.

Our nabours hear me talking to myself late in the evening when I’m reading back to myself shit I just wrote. They think I’m amazing or so they say.

I don’t miss the plastic faces and the imprisoned bay street souls. Those trapped free spirits locked up in a self made cage.

Dont miss it one bit.

You can be weird here, its ok, having freinds here is not a job like it was back in Toronto.

Think it’s the deep blue skies and the dark shadow the brilliant sun casts here.

Loving life…

Socal is plastic heaven…… you must have to fight off all the Baywatch babes craving smoking surfing man….. if you can surf with a fag in yer mouth yer da man

A green plastic watering can
For a fake Chinese rubber plant
In the fake plastic earth
That she bought from a rubber man
In a town full of rubber plans
To get rid of itself
It wears her out
It wears her out
It wears her out
It wears her out
She lives with a broken man
A cracked polystyrene man
Who just crumbles and burns
He used to do surgery
For girls in the eighties
But gravity always wins
And it wears him out
It wears him out
It wears him out
Wears him out
She looks like the real thing
She tastes like the real thing
My fake plastic love

#102 n1tro on 03.28.19 at 11:32 am

#92 Steven Rowlandson on 03.28.19 at 10:24 am
It seems that excessive debt is a serious problem.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/businessweek/drowning-in-debt-freaked-out-canadians-brace-for-a-reckoning-1.1234735
————————–
Only for people who make dumb life choices.

$100K in debt and takes son to Cuba for graduating grade 8.
#priorities

#103 Smartalox on 03.28.19 at 11:58 am

@ Another Deckchair #90:

1) If the Orkneys get their power from wind turbines – that generate power at all times, leaving them with a surplus that would otherwise be wasted, any electrical energy inefficiencies from electrolysis are moot. Better to get something for that turbine investment, than nothing. Either way, the wind is going to keep blowing.

2) Hydrogen permeates steel at very low rates at low temperatures and pressures. If the hydrogen storage tanks are drained regularly as the hydrogen is used to power cars and homes, then the amount lost to leaks is very small in comparison. Also, because of point #1, the hydrogen lost to leaks is replaced for free.

And yes, the outer skin of the Hindenburg WAS indeed painted with a compound that was later refined for use as rocket fuel. The hydrogen gas used in the airship contributed to the disaster because the hydrogen gas inside the balloon burned faster than the flammable skin of the craft. This made the fire spread more rapidly, and caused the airship to fall out of the sky.

Though many survived the disaster, those that dies were killed by the crash itself, and not the fire.

#104 Y. Knott on 03.28.19 at 12:14 pm

#46 conan on 03.27.19 at 8:16 pm

Moving to another continent if the orange one gets re elected. Probably do the same if Scheer wins a majority.

DLTDHYAOTWO. Or as it was put after Trump’s election, “Don’t you hate how leftists, Marxists and movie starts always swear they’ll move out of the country if so-and-so gets elected, but then they never keep their word after he does?”

#105 Alex Smart on 03.28.19 at 12:21 pm

The world financial system is in a slow systematic meltdown.

As far as more QE is concerned it will have the opposite effect this time , as compared to last time , as the US dollar will tank and inflation for goods will take off . When the market purveyors finally figure that QE will run from now til infinity, its lights out on on this Keynesian economics experiment and a huge sell off of everything other than gold/silver will take place.

What a joke the Fed and Bank of Canada cant even raise interest rates or everything crashes. Is this really a healthy economy or just Orwellian brain f***ckery.

#106 IHCTD9 on 03.28.19 at 12:47 pm

#102 n1tro on 03.28.19 at 11:32 am
#92 Steven Rowlandson on 03.28.19 at 10:24 am
It seems that excessive debt is a serious problem.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/businessweek/drowning-in-debt-freaked-out-canadians-brace-for-a-reckoning-1.1234735
————————–
Only for people who make dumb life choices.

$100K in debt and takes son to Cuba for graduating grade 8.
#priorities
_____

Can’t fix people like this. If she can’t put her foot down and make some good decisions, she (and likely her son too) will always be a slave to a lender.

At least she is getting 1K+/mo from Trudeau’s CCB to help pay for all the vacations…

#107 Figure it Out on 03.28.19 at 12:58 pm

“Don’t you hate how leftists, Marxists and movie starts always swear they’ll move out of the country if so-and-so gets elected, but then they never keep their word after he does?”

Yep. Also when people on the other end of the spectrum spend years complaining about high taxes and threatening to move.

More inspiring (to me) are people who just do it. We’ve got a poster on here who posts from Italy (but of course somebody else complains about that) and another, a physician, who claims to be retiring to Madeira (cost of living 30% less than Toronto, according to Expatistan).

Anyway, one thing we can all agree on is that most immigrants aren’t poor, lazy people who show up for the social benefits. The lazy people stay at home and spend their days griping on blogs.

#108 Another Deckchair on 03.28.19 at 1:05 pm

@95 Remembrancer, and @103 Smartalox;

Good comments – thank you. Appreciated.

I guess I was aiming more at “Hydrogen will power the world!” type of comments – it’s wonderful, but it’s no panacea.

Years ago, I was dumfounded when I read what NASA was doing, then more digging showed that almost all Hydrogen was extracted via a Nickel catalyst based process from natural gas (etc) feedstocks, not electrolysis like I had expected. (It is better than burning sulfur laden diesel, for sure!)

So, 90% of the time it’s not the clean energy, as the proponents like to push.

#109 888 movement on 03.28.19 at 1:17 pm

@#98

….trying to attract a certain superstitious clientele….

…………………………………..

Because they know, these speculators are the predominant buyers, and foreign capital speculators are now the last source of funds that continue to purchase Canadian real estate.

#110 child tax benefit on 03.28.19 at 1:24 pm

#106 hctd09

Your posting re: CcB is incorrect. I have one child and my child tax benefit amounts to $159.00 a month.

Do not post fake numbers to support your contempt for the CTB.

#111 AGuyInVancouver on 03.28.19 at 1:27 pm

#102 n1tro on 03.28.19 at 11:32 am
#92 Steven Rowlandson on 03.28.19 at 10:24 am
It seems that excessive debt is a serious problem.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/businessweek/drowning-in-debt-freaked-out-canadians-brace-for-a-reckoning-1.1234735
————————–
Only for people who make dumb life choices.

$100K in debt and takes son to Cuba for graduating grade 8.
#priorities
_ _ _
LOL, I read that too. Gave my head a shake. Buy the kid a nice pair of sneakers, he’ll be just as happy.

#112 PM's Schedule Today on 03.28.19 at 1:28 pm

Our glorious leader is in Nova Scotia, and New Brunswick today. He will be visiting the Senior’s Homes, and how sweet of him to do so. I wonder if he will once again apologize for something. He needs to download an apology app, and keep pushing the button wherever he goes.

#113 NoName on 03.28.19 at 1:58 pm

#110 child tax benefit on 03.28.19 at 1:24 pm
#106 hctd09

Your posting re: CcB is incorrect. I have one child and my child tax benefit amounts to $159.00 a month.

Do not post fake numbers to support your contempt for the CTB.

—-

You bots are wrong i have two kids and we only recieveing 23.06 for both of them.

#114 IHCTD9 on 03.28.19 at 2:00 pm

#110 child tax benefit on 03.28.19 at 1:24 pm
#106 hctd09

Your posting re: CcB is incorrect. I have one child and my child tax benefit amounts to $159.00 a month.

Do not post fake numbers to support your contempt for the CTB.
___

You are an average income single parent (like Maxwell) and you only get 159.00/month?

RIIIIIGHT…

You are a 1%’er, seriously confused, or a liar – simple as that.

I’m married, 6 figure household income with kids and I get more than double what you claim for yourself.

Hey – I LOVE the CCB – the more tax money Trudeau hands back to me the more I like it.

#115 IHCTD9 on 03.28.19 at 2:21 pm

#113 NoName on 03.28.19 at 1:58 pm
#110 child tax benefit on 03.28.19 at 1:24 pm
#106 hctd09

Your posting re: CcB is incorrect. I have one child and my child tax benefit amounts to $159.00 a month.

Do not post fake numbers to support your contempt for the CTB.

—-

You bots are wrong i have two kids and we only recieveing 23.06 for both of them.
___

You must make a pile of money to get that low.

#116 IHCTD9 on 03.28.19 at 2:30 pm

OK, I had to Google – and I’m incorrect for just one kid (I am always thinking 2 kids as that’s how many I have)

So max per head under $30,500.00 NET household income is 541.00 per kid – per month.

A few months of that will still cover a budget Cuba trip no problemo amigo.

All Maxwell needs to do is have 2-3 more kids and she’ll have her debts paid off in no time.

https://www.canada.ca/en/revenue-agency/services/child-family-benefits/canada-child-benefit-overview/canada-child-benefit-we-calculate-your-ccb.html

#117 n1tro on 03.28.19 at 2:43 pm

#112 PM’s Schedule Today on 03.28.19 at 1:28 pm
Our glorious leader is in Nova Scotia, and New Brunswick today. He will be visiting the Senior’s Homes, and how sweet of him to do so. I wonder if he will once again apologize for something. He needs to download an apology app, and keep pushing the button wherever he goes.
————————————
Wonder no more. 1 apology for disparaging a native protester complaining about a silly thing like mercury in her drinking water. But T2 appreciates the $1,500 the lady had to cough up to get to the venue to make her point though.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/mar/28/justin-trudeau-indigenous-activist-apology-thank-you-donation

#118 PastThePeak on 03.28.19 at 2:44 pm

#110 child tax benefit on 03.28.19 at 1:24 pm
#106 hctd09

Your posting re: CcB is incorrect. I have one child and my child tax benefit amounts to $159.00 a month.

Do not post fake numbers to support your contempt for the CTB.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Its CCB.

You might have a relatively high household income and are hitting some pretty high means test on the amount.

From the Government of Canada website.
– $6,496 per year ($541.33 per month) for each eligible child under the age of six
– $5,481 per year ($456.75 per month) for each eligible child aged 6 to 17

This max amount is reduced with (adjusted) income. Running some simple amounts through their calculator, a single person making $70K per year with $2K rent will get about $335 / month, or $4K/year.

#119 PastThePeak on 03.28.19 at 2:47 pm

#92 Steven Rowlandson on 03.28.19 at 10:24 am
It seems that excessive debt is a serious problem.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/businessweek/drowning-in-debt-freaked-out-canadians-brace-for-a-reckoning-1.1234735
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

No problem. The BoC has the solution – reduce the interest rates so that people can take on more debt, but with a slightly lower monthly payment. Voila! Problem solved.

#120 James on 03.28.19 at 3:08 pm

#94 45north on 03.28.19 at 10:41 am

Howard: 80 David Dunlap Circle in Toronto. A townhouse.
Was listed at $999,900 for several months. No takers. Listing suspended.
Just relisted at…$999,888.

$2 savings
what an idiot
________________________________________
Location, location, location it doesn’t help being next to and arterial expressway and a highly traveled train and GO train line. I might add no GO station nearby. No subway only buses…………pfft I would not have bought out there anyway unless I worked for Celestica.

#121 Ubul on 03.28.19 at 3:22 pm

EU is now making car speed reducing devices mandatory in new vehicles from 2020, aiming to “ultimately cut road deaths to zero by 2050”.

It is unbelievable that unrealistic goal-setting people, like who believe that road deaths can be cut to zero, are in position of making laws.

#122 Tater on 03.28.19 at 3:39 pm

#114 IHCTD9 on 03.28.19 at 2:00 pm
#110 child tax benefit on 03.28.19 at 1:24 pm
#106 hctd09

Your posting re: CcB is incorrect. I have one child and my child tax benefit amounts to $159.00 a month.

Do not post fake numbers to support your contempt for the CTB.
___

You are an average income single parent (like Maxwell) and you only get 159.00/month?

RIIIIIGHT…

You are a 1%’er, seriously confused, or a liar – simple as that.

I’m married, 6 figure household income with kids and I get more than double what you claim for yourself.

Hey – I LOVE the CCB – the more tax money Trudeau hands back to me the more I like it.
—————————————————————

See, I’ve always thought that if a benefit is means tested, you’re much better off making so much money that you don’t qualify for it. I don’t want the CCB, the GST refund or OAS (when it’s time).

#123 jess on 03.28.19 at 3:45 pm

The Canada Revenue Agency says its investigators executed search warrants on two properties in Vancouver today — part of an effort to find further evidence in a $77 million tax evasion case related to the Panama Papers.

The CRA says 40 criminal investigators took part in the operation. (cbc)

The agency says investigators uncovered a series of transactions involving offshore tax havens linked to an alleged attempt by a non-resident to avoid paying tax he was withholding. Investigators relied on various sources, including records obtained through the Panama Papers leak, according to a news release.

“These complex investigations can take months or years to complete and I’m encouraged and very pleased with the search warrants that were executed this morning,” said National Revenue Minister Diane Lebouthillier in a written statement.

“The net is tightening.”

#124 Neo on 03.28.19 at 4:06 pm

#59 What I think I might know on 03.27.19 at 9:54 pm
#53 georgist on 03.27.19 at 9:10 pm

First you ask what is he talking about? Then you dismiss him as a zealot. Why? He is correct. RE in the GTA is a juggernaut. It certainly has been and will likely continue to be so. Wages don’t matter. Debt doesn’t matter. Fundamentals don’t matter. Not when foreign money is yearning for a place to roost. The Canadian economy is perfect for that. A stable society that doesn’t look too critically at foreign investment. This gasbag has a lot more capacity to inflate.

********************************************

All that drivel you just said could have applied to Australia but their housing market is collapsing as we speak.

Wages. Debt. Fundamentals always matter in the end.

#125 Neo on 03.28.19 at 4:16 pm

#71 Smoking Man on 03.28.19 at 12:25 am

I pretty Cal has the most plastic faces in the world. Surprised their faces don’t melt in the heat.

#126 Alistair McLaughlin on 03.28.19 at 4:17 pm

@#012 N1tro, glad I’m not the only one who noticed that. When I “graduated” from grade 8, I think it got… a report card saying I had passed grade 8.

Now that’s worthy of a trip to Cuba, paid for by a broke single parent who’s 100K in debt, and admits she had to borrow the money from family. That proves she will never, ever be anything but broke.

If that sounds too judgemental, well, many moons ago, I was a broke indebted fool. I too paid for vacations with debt. I’ve been there. I can say from personal experience, that until that type of behaviour STOPS, being anything but broke is not possible. Nobody earns their way out of that kind of debt without ruthless belt-tightening. Broke people don’t get vacations.