The inverted

If you’ve been waiting to invest in a GIC that pays 5%, sorry. Not gonna happen. Conversely, if you need a cheapo mortgage to justify your house lust, you’re in luck. It’s coming.

After this week’s big reversal in tone by the US Fed, markets and investors decided to throw in the towel. Several decisions were made, and actions taken. You should know. This may set the stage for the next couple of years. Maybe longer. Some doomers say, like, forever.

First, it’s now assumed interest rates have topped. Just 90 days ago the Fed (and our central bank) was indicating two rate hikes at least in 2019. Now Mr. Market says that’ll be zero. This tightening cycle has suddenly gone pffft.

Second, bond yields crashed as the bankers went dovish. Bond prices spiked. Bond ETFs went along for the ride.

Third, this was pushed by a big wave of bond-buying. In the US that drove the 10-year yield down further, to the lowest point of the year. In Canada the benchmark 5-year Canada bond – flirting with 2.5% in November – finished the week below 1.5%. Incredible. That’s a dive in yield of more than 40% in a matter of months, pushing prices up. So you took the advice here to hold bonds in your balanced portfolio, right? Good.

Fourth, the rush to buy long-term bonds came because Mr. Market now expects central banks to be lowering rates in the future. Not the immediate future, but within the next couple of years. In fact this clamour caused the yield on those longer maturities to fall below what short-term debt pays. This is called a yield curve inversion, and please don’t try it at home.

Many people think it’s harbinger of recession. Sometimes is. Sometimes isn’t. But the consensus is that the US economy (and that of the globe) will be slower going forward and ultimately central banks will try to goose it back up with cheaper money. Right now markets are suggesting such a rate cut could happen about the end of 2020. In other words, the American economy might be headed for earth just as voters are making a decision on Trump’s second term. Interesting timing, n’est-ce pas?

Is the potential of a recession bad news for stocks? After all, the Dow shed 400 points on Friday. More to come?

Beats me. Short-term moves, as this pathetic, hectoring blog has pointed out over and again, mean diddly. Ignore them. In fact, lower rates are designed to stimulate things by encouraging people to borrow, spend and gorge themselves on dollops of new debt. More consumer spending fuels corporate profits and economic activity. Cheap money also makes stocks more attractive. Why not hold equities with a 4% or 5% dividend rather than a bond paying squat?

For example, Canadian bonds now offer less than cash. The central bank’s own benchmark rate of 1.75 – basically the risk-free value of money – is about the same as the yield on a government bond not maturing until 2033. There is no risk but, after inflation, also no return.

Heading down with bond yields, therefore, will be GIC rates plus the return on high-interest savings accounts, along with every other savings instrument at the bank. Bummer. And just as the spring real estate market launches, there should be mortgage deals all over the place. Already we’ve told you about HSBC’s 2.99% fiver and the insane 1.98% two-year loan available from the knuckleheads at Meridian CU. Shortly the Big Banks will weigh in with their specials – made more appealing now that government bonds are sinking along with its polling.

So let’s repeat yesterday’s lesson about investing in a world full of barbarians, strange family members and weird emotions. Own different asset classes in the correct weightings and ignore the news. Yes, stocks went down on Friday, but bonds went up. Next week might bring the opposite. None of this is within your control. And your dog still loves you. Even inverted.

123 comments ↓

#1 Tom Saunders on 03.22.19 at 4:17 pm

Why do people keep lying about interest rates going up!

Nobody lies. Conditions change. We had 9 Fed increases. – Garth

#2 NotLegalAdvice on 03.22.19 at 4:18 pm

Won’t lower interest rates mean property will start to rise again?

“…..just as the spring real estate market launches, there should be mortgage deals all over the place. Already we’ve told you about HSBC’s 2.99% fiver and the insane 1.98% two-year loan available from the knuckleheads at Meridian CU. ” – GT.

#3 Cto on 03.22.19 at 4:19 pm

What failures our Central Bankers are!
What a failure are we conomic recovery has Been.
Garbing crap loads of debt, people living life on the wild side because of debt, the whole world addicted to debt.
Is this what the central Bankers wanted.

#4 Michael M Caligiuri on 03.22.19 at 4:26 pm

Hi Garth
Thank you for calm, level headed thinking in times of upheaval. We need your seasoned intelligent directives when we are ready to jump out of the boat. Please continue to drive the boat; we need you now more than ever.

#5 Scott Codrier on 03.22.19 at 4:32 pm

Crooks everywhere abound.

How is anything I wrote about even remotely crooked? – Garth

#6 WPGWALDO on 03.22.19 at 4:33 pm

I will never understand why people just keep piling on debt just because rates are low. I can only conclude that the sheep are truly stupid .

#7 MF on 03.22.19 at 4:36 pm

Hate to say it, but no one actually expected rates to rise much anyways, because it’s clear they can’t.

The story of a return to growth and recovery was a credit driven farce all along…and we all knew it. The central banks kept rates too low for too long and now we can’t get out of this debt cycle of their own doing.

They CB’s look stupid and incompetent, and their movies did nothing but fan the flames of discontent/populism.

Truly pathetic.

MF

#8 The Lost Decade on 03.22.19 at 4:39 pm

Its been a decade since everyone was ‘warned’ that interest rates would go up. Its been 7 years since the BOC governor warned that rates were rising, and to get your house in order.

Four years ago, everyone was warned that rates would normalize to the historical 5-6%; then it was walked down to 3-4%; and now we will be stuck at emergency low rates for several years.

In the mean time, everyone but a few sidelined renters benefited from super cheap mortgages and astronomical price appreciation.

Once again, the herd wins!

The smart arm chair economists and risk aversive pessimists have their willy coyote moment now – without the rate increases, we will now have that soft landing and the market decline will be ‘suspended.’

Even with a stress test and rising rates, you had negligible price declines. Yes, sales collapsed and the inevitable ‘prices fall after sales collapse’ as not happened. Now with rates on hold, there are no further risks of a market correction. People have jobs, immigration will be at its highest levels ever, rates are going nowhere, and the feds are throwing money at people to buy houses!

Looks like Spring buying season has arrived!

#9 Just Ed on 03.22.19 at 4:52 pm

“So you took the advice here to hold bonds in your balanced portfolio, right? Good.”

My bonds went up .33%, equities down about 1.85%

Not over the last month, they didn’t. – Garth

#10 jess on 03.22.19 at 5:01 pm

in a world full of barbarians, ….crooks more likely!

populist anger
about time!It was late November 2016, and Brazil’s largest-ever corruption scandal was finally reaching the country’s political elites.
The term of Mr. Temer, 78, expired in January. The end of his presidency left him exposed to numerous criminal investigations that he had kept at bay by availing himself of the legal protections afforded to elected officials in Brazil while they are in office.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/21/world/americas/michel-temer-arrested-prisao.html

Accused of Graft? Change the Rules

Print article
Published: Monday, 18 March 2019 15:17
Written by Aisha Down

At three in the morning on November 30, as the nation mourned the team, the Chamber of Deputies, the lower chamber of parliament, almost unanimously passed a new anti-corruption bill.The law had been long in the works. But, in the chaos,(plane crash soccer players) the legislators managed to push through some last-minute changes to the text. They erased the original definition of illegal enrichment and removed a clause offering protection to whistleblowers. They also added a new provision that essentially made it possible for prosecutors who opened the Lava Jato investigations to face criminal charges if the cases didn’t lead to convictions.

The purpose of the provision was to scare Brazil’s judiciary out of continuing with the case, said Jose Ugaz, a Peruvian expert on corruption in South America and a former chair of the board of Transparency International.

“In all the world, I’ve never heard about something like this,” he said.

When Brazilians heard the news, they took to the streets, eventually forcing the upper house, the Senate, to reject the law.

In Israel, for example, the Knesset passed a law in December 2017 changing how the police deal with high-profile corruption cases. Critics have argued that the changes would shield Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu as he faces corruption allegations….read about other ‘leaders’ here :

https://www.occrp.org/en/37-ccblog/ccblog/9395-accused-of-graft-change-the-rules

#11 JSS on 03.22.19 at 5:13 pm

What if mortgage rates drop, yet home sales don’t rise.

#12 The Real Mark on 03.22.19 at 5:25 pm

“#2 NotLegalAdvice on 03.22.19 at 4:18 pm
Won’t lower interest rates mean property will start to rise again?”

Doubtful. The industry has been building far more units than there have been additions of Canadians to occupy them. And as prices continue to fall, to maintain the same profits (and thus lifestyles for the owners of the RE supply companies), they’ll build even more until cash margins literally go negative. Looking to fully deplete their investment in the factories, supply chains, and equipment that builds housing.

Some other sector of the Canadian economy will have to emerge from the ashes. But with so many sectors in significant overcapacity, it will be very difficult to spread the gains amongst a wide cross-section of Canadians like residential RE did. Perhaps the precious metals miners take off as an asset class with the low interest rates and deflationary tendencies, but exceedingly few Canadians are involved, directly or even peripherally with that industry. If the SJW types are upset today with how wealth is distributed, they’re going to be absolutely and utterly horrified if the PM miners go up 100X and vast tracts of wealth are concentrated amongst very few Canadians.

Four years ago, everyone was warned that rates would normalize to the historical 5-6%

The idea of 5-6% rates was always nonsense in a 2% inflation world. As rates cannot be sustainably at the nominal rate of GDP, which is typically, at best, 4-5% in Canada. Such would not accord an equity risk premium which is a long-term pre-requisite of a vibrant economy.

Retail mortgage borrowing rates may very well expand to 5-6%, but that would be a reflection of overcapacity and lack of credit-worthiness in the asset class. Not that of policy interest rates.

Now with rates on hold, there are no further risks of a market correction.

Tons of risk of housing continuing to fall much further than it has already. Housing is still priced at 2-4X (or more) of depreciated replacement cost. Over the long term, *every* broad asset class eventually becomes priced at less than depreciated replacement cost. And since there’s increasing amounts of physical overcapacity in Canada’s housing sector, it logically follows that we’re heading there as economic forces move to shut down the formation of new supply.

#13 jess on 03.22.19 at 5:29 pm

A report from Market Watch. “A new class-action lawsuit takes aim at real estate agents and the tools they use to do business.

http://housingbubble.blog/?p=1266

#14 Bob Dog on 03.22.19 at 5:34 pm

As a saver who has been reamed the last 12 years by banks and government, the best strategy moving forward is to hope for a redundancy and go full EI for the remainder of the year. Summer is coming and I want to see the east coast.

Nothing is more valuable that time.

#15 Kane on 03.22.19 at 5:35 pm

How do you save money on bank fees? Invest in what type of assets in RRSP at one of the big 5?

#16 dosouth on 03.22.19 at 5:47 pm

Can you briefly explain what affect this will have going forward CDN $ to USD? We are trying to decide when to purchase USD for upcoming travel. Thank you

#17 TurnerNation on 03.22.19 at 5:59 pm

Onyx buying Gluskin Sheff. Must be retirement time.

TLT.US has gone apesht now something is up.

#18 Homeless in B.C. on 03.22.19 at 5:59 pm

Buffalo Chronical article about Sheer calling for an investigation into BMO using service providers to bribe elected first nations members to accept Trans Mountain Pipeline- Not a word of this in Canadian Media. Is this a non-story or does it have something to do with BMO spending huge on media advertising? Maybe it is like what Hunter Thompson said about Nixon and his crew. “These people are immoral, unethical and corrupt to the degree that men can’t describe it”

#19 Midnights on 03.22.19 at 6:06 pm

Trudeau isn’t lovin this lmbo…
Bye buddy

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-03-22/canadian-lawmaker-accuses-trudeau-being-fake-feminist

#20 slick on 03.22.19 at 6:07 pm

#7 MF

can confirm.

Fed chairs spent 8 years threatening to raise rates and never doing it.
Greenspan kept rates too low when the economy was growing.
Now they are stuck.
Stock market near record highs.
Lower taxes.
Full employment.
Wages and costs going up,
and they still cower in the corner if someone mentions a 1/4 point rate hike.

#21 Dissapointed Observer on 03.22.19 at 6:12 pm

#6 WPGWALDO

“I will never understand why people just keep piling on debt just because rates are low. I can only conclude that the sheep are truly stupid”

Why not? The gorging at the trough of cheap money has gone relatively unpunished for so many years, there’s no punitive action to the abusers. For a fleeting moment I thought finally, the balance was coming back and the pain for the irresponsible was gong to be heavy. But no, nothing new here, go ahead and continue feasting. Next thing is the home they now owe 95% on will rise again giving them even more ability to borrow. All common sense has gone out the window.

#22 Moh on 03.22.19 at 6:12 pm

Markets shed cause of the Mueller report. It’s up to the US attorney General is going to decide what gets released to congress. If the report shows Russian meddling related to Trump don’t be surprised that the markets tank for a bit. Just my two cents.

#23 ts on 03.22.19 at 6:12 pm

Yes, people have jobs now, but things can change very quickly if there’s a recession – nobody can predict how deep. Yes indeed, we are living in interesting times.

#24 Yukon Elvis on 03.22.19 at 6:15 pm

……as predicted right here by Rowat, Llewenza, and many others who have been scorned, ridiculed and banned over the years.

Rowat 5/5/18
So, while interest rates and bond yields are still going higher, the overnight rate will probably stall out at about 3% or 3.5% and then we’ll, in all likelihood, witness a resumption of the long, inexorable, downward move in interest rates and bond yields.
……………
I see the Canadian economy slowing over the next 12 months on higher interest rates and NAFTA overhang but I don’t believe a major slowdown is in the cards. For that to happen we would need to see the US economy roll over, a large spike in oil prices or materially higher interest rates which I see as unlikely. 24 months out is harder to predict right now. – Ryan L

#25 Red_falcon on 03.22.19 at 6:24 pm

Wow! Interest rates stall… Let’s see what happens after… But I’ll hold onto my wonderful stocks with their ever growing dividends! The key to all things bright and shiny!

#26 Trumpocalypse2019 on 03.22.19 at 6:45 pm

Trump is now in his weekend bunker.

The Mueller report is done.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/22/politics/robert-mueller-report/index.html

All hell will break loose soon.

PREPARE

#27 Paul Fromm on 03.22.19 at 6:48 pm

DELETED

#28 ZIRP or NIRP? on 03.22.19 at 6:52 pm

On the long term charts, the recent high in interest rates is a lower high. Now we are due for a lower low as the long term decline continues. Perhaps we are headed for zero interest rate policy like Japan or maybe negative interest rate policy like parts of Europe.

#29 Dig Deep on 03.22.19 at 6:56 pm

#14 Bob Dog

Indeed.

The Winter Of Our Discontent.

Waiting to ride the wave of constructive dismissal and a six month non-compete clause.

Go East. It is magic out there.

#30 Democracy Is Mob Rule on 03.22.19 at 7:03 pm

#16 dosouth on 03.22.19 at 5:47 pm
Can you briefly explain what affect this will have going forward CDN $ to USD?
_______________________________________________

The exchange rate is more a function of oil prices than interest rates. See chart at the link.

http://news.ubc.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/diagram770.jpg

Oil prices follow a 30 year cycle along with other commodities. This suggests that oil prices will be weak for the next decade, possibly going even lower. Then they will rise in the decade of the 2030’s, along with the loonie.

#31 expat on 03.22.19 at 7:10 pm

They need bullets to fire in recession. No news story

They raised 9 times and they got the junkies thinking, BTW my flight to a Cuba holiday this week is half full.

Sunwing rep says the whole winter has been like this. They have rarely filled the plane….

Speaks volumes.
Bank of house is closed

#32 expat on 03.22.19 at 7:14 pm

BTW did you guys Michelle Rempel of the PC’s rip socks a new one?

Priceless

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-03-22/canadian-lawmaker-accuses-trudeau-being-fake-feminist

#33 Oakville Sucks on 03.22.19 at 7:15 pm

3 month – 10 year yield curves are now inverted both in Canada and US.

When yield curves start inverting…recession is around the corner. This is a leading indicator!

#34 T on 03.22.19 at 7:15 pm

Sold all holding in all mutual funds at 3:50pm today. Moved everything (substantial) to cash.

Happy to circle the calendar and say this was the final top.

Central banks going into next recession with near zero rates to prop things up. Have at it. We shall see.

The picture should not be a dog upside down (inverted)

It should be a gun with no bullets. Germany was first.

Emotion is the disease which afflicts DIY investors. And why did you buy mutual funds? Yuck. – Garth

#35 Yellow Vest on 03.22.19 at 7:17 pm

Well it seems the “RUSSIA !!!!!!!!!!!!” hoax purpotrated by the Radicalized Extreme FAR LEFT can finally be put to bed.

Can you say MAGA 2020? The FAR LEFT has handed it to President Trump on a DOJ Silver Plater.

#36 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.22.19 at 7:20 pm

Funny picture or not.
That is one damn fat, ugly, dog that only the Queen or other Corgi owners could love….right up there with Pugs… yuck.

Over to you Felix….

#37 T on 03.22.19 at 7:28 pm

Emotion is the disease which afflicts DIY investors. And why did you buy mutual funds? Yuck. – Garth

Remainder of portfolio. $500K

And as passive instruments are beating active managed portfolios (hands down) its a wonder who is a DIY these days.

Equities up 10%+ YTD and 2x GIC returns over 6 months with less tax. Fact. – Garth

#38 Toronto the Poor on 03.22.19 at 7:28 pm

All this cheap credit is setting us up for a global economic collapse… it is a GLOBAL economy after all… Everyone is going to feel it and suffer. It’s also a prerequisite for the dajjal’s coming.

We all less than 10 years away… reel your investments in.

#39 Alive or Dead on 03.22.19 at 7:28 pm

#18 Homeless – The first sign of corruption in a society that is still alive is that the end justifies the means.
– Georges Bernanos

#40 Federrico Sipanozzi on 03.22.19 at 7:30 pm

Normalized interest rates always reflected inflation+2% to 3% shorter term rates to longer term rates so with 2% inflation 4% to 5% rates were not unexpected.

This mentality that rates are too high is a farce and insult to anyone that is truly informed about how interest rates really work.

The highest 5 year GIC rate today I could find is 3.75% 3.5%, 3.6% are second highest which is no far behind but those will be dropping soon as Canada bond rates are falling fast and I truly believe that they are being manipulated to the downside because they know that is how the river is flowing for the last 11 years now.

Please don’t ask who is paying these GIC rates as you can Google them and find them easily. They are fully guaranteed by deposit insurance.

#41 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.22.19 at 7:31 pm

Trumpocalypse2019
“All hell will break loose soon.’
+++++

But that’s what you recently said about the Ides of March……and previously about North Korea after they fired a “No Dong” Missile ( the Freudian theories abound) over Japan….and before that ….Trump as the newly elected President….
Apparently being consistently wrong doesn’t bother or silence you….
Is that a side effect of too much Viagra and no partners in the bunker?

#42 DON on 03.22.19 at 7:33 pm

#20 slick on 03.22.19 at 6:07 pm

#7 MF

can confirm.

Fed chairs spent 8 years threatening to raise rates and never doing it.
Greenspan kept rates too low when the economy was growing.
Now they are stuck.
Stock market near record highs.
Lower taxes.
Full employment.
Wages and costs going up,
and they still cower in the corner if someone mentions a 1/4 point rate hike.
******************

In today’s context, slowing global economy, high house hold debt, peak home ownership, inflated house prices, economic dependence on consumer spending and real estate and related industries.

The fact that we can’t raise rates is the main concern. Months ago the word Recession was brushed off, now its a consideration and if we go into recession followed by the US that will hit us with a double whammy.

Do you remember what its like to be in a recessionary environment? Perceptions change fast. A year can seem like forever and 2 and 3 yrs painful if you are not somewhat prepared for the unexpected. If builders stop building unit and layoff workers the dominoes start to fall. The dot com bust was eye opening but somewhat predictable when company’s had huge money but little revenue. Not everything has to be viewed in hind sight, if you observe how things work.

I have an uneasy feeling about what comes next…hopefully I am wrong about the degree of a correction. If would be helpful if someone can chime in and provide some positives to increase GDP and growth other than stimulus. Any green shoots? High tech etc.

#43 I'm Worried on 03.22.19 at 7:35 pm

Sometimes I agree with The Real Mark.

#44 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.22.19 at 7:35 pm

@#31 expat
“Speaks volumes.
Bank of house is closed”
*****

Wow.
Interesting. Visa are maxxed, credit lines maxxed, HELOC’s maxxed, economy slowing down, …..

Its a Trudeaupocalypse2019!

Sorry folks…..couldnt resist.

#45 Dolce Vita on 03.22.19 at 7:40 pm

“Neither a borrower nor a lender be.”

Polonius had it right.

Neither trust [email protected] nor borrowers that default on mortgage payments in a RECESSION (a.k.a., “Slow Growth” by investment dealers).

Recall rates are already at historic lows.

There are no RE Agents crowing in chorus about how busy the onset of this Spring sales season is going (or on this Blog for that matter); rather, silence. Mute. Quiet. Hushed.

“This is the way the world ends. Not with a bang but a whimper.”

T. S. Elliot also got it right.

Buonanotte d'[*]Italia.

*recessione tecnica

————————————-

PS:

It was hilarious watching the Con Ladies (Bergen and Rempel tag team) tear Pierre’s kid a whole new rear orifice a few days ago for being a FAKE FEMINIST – worth the price of admission (Michelle Rempel’s YouTube Channel):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LM9GELTk6cA

I liked it when Candice Bergen (the MP) called him a very good actor and stared him down right after a few more verisimilitudes…too funny.

Proof positive that:

HELL HATH NO FURY LIKE A…

Did Congreve ever get that right. Poor Pierre’s kid, ouch.

#46 dakkie on 03.22.19 at 7:43 pm

The Big Short Steve Eisman Places a HUGE SHORT as Real Estate Prices Begin To Drop!

https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/the-big-short-steve-eisman-places-a-huge-short-as-real-estate-prices-begin-to-drop/

#47 Re-Cowtown on 03.22.19 at 7:44 pm

Mueller releases report… and… Trump cleared.

And (as I said last week) the Democrats are so messed up that they think that Mueller is now part of the Russian Collusion cover-up.

Wow………..

Link to Trump being cleared? Foxy News, I presume? – Garth

#48 sisco on 03.22.19 at 7:45 pm

Garth,

Curious to hear your thoughts on where to stash short term savings.

In my particular case my wife and I are saving down payment money, probably 2-3 years left to go in order to have the 20-25% we want. We live in Halifax. Before last week I’d kept this money in a balanced portfolio in our RRSPs (we’ll both cash in the First Time Home Buyers Plan), but with the volatility in the markets the past few years and our relatively short window I decided to dump things into a Money Market fund while the portfolio was up.

Any sagelike wisdom on where to put this cash other than a Money Market Fund? Thanks!

#49 T on 03.22.19 at 7:52 pm

Equities up 10%+ YTD and 2x GIC returns over 6 months with less tax. Fact. – Garth

Yeild curve inverted.
GDP dropping like a stone globally
Trump=tariffs (40% of S&P earnings comes from abroad)

Remember this post. I know Ken is going to cart out charts of the past but its game over Garth.

Gunlach and Rosenberg are getting air time now-for a reason.

Even Sonders is hitting sell button.

Did you not learn a lesson in December? – Garth

#50 Trying to Goose The Market on 03.22.19 at 7:53 pm

Thailand is very attractive to Chinese investors
https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Thailand-rolls-out-red-carpet-for-500-Chinese-companies

#51 Shawn Allen on 03.22.19 at 7:58 pm

Why Buy Low?

#6 WPGWALDO on 03.22.19 at 4:33 pm

I will never understand why people just keep piling on debt just because rates are low. I can only conclude that the sheep are truly stupid .

*******************************
Could it be the simple laws of supply and demand? People demand more when prices fall.

Would you expect people to borrow less as interest rates fall?

#52 T on 03.22.19 at 8:00 pm

Ignore it or accept it. Not “one months” data. And there rates just went negative.

____________

After nine successive years of growth, the German economy is facing trade conflicts between the United States and both China and the European Union as well as weakening economic activity in the euro zone.

IHS Markit’s flash composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) measuring activity in services and manufacturing, which together account for more than two-thirds of the economy, fell to 51.5, it lowest reading since June 2013.

#53 The Real Mark on 03.22.19 at 8:02 pm

“#40 Federrico Sipanozzi on 03.22.19 at 7:30 pm
Normalized interest rates always reflected inflation+2% to 3%”

Unsustainable. The economy doesn’t even grow at 2-3% real. How can the economy pay interest faster than, or even at the same rate of economic growth, and still provide a return to those who actually take risk?

Canada’s gone 40 years without an equity risk premium. Go look it up. The ‘savers’ (ie: bond investors) basically outperforming investors for an entire generation. No wonder we have such a horrible business climate in Canada, the central banks have kept interest rates artificially high.

Please don’t ask who is paying these GIC rates as you can Google them and find them easily. They are fully guaranteed by deposit insurance.

Most of those “GIC rates” from from credit unions which do not have deposit insurance aside from the deposit itself being guaranteed by the credit unions. Risk is related to the rates that such institutions have to pay, so if they’re paying higher, at least the perception exists that risk is higher. To achieve a positive spread, those institutions with higher funding costs are forced to engage in riskier activities. The phrase “there is no free lunch” come to mind here.

#54 Lisa Hyatt on 03.22.19 at 8:05 pm

DELETED

#55 the ryguy - In cabo on 03.22.19 at 8:07 pm

Im still up 1.8% from feb 20 when I rebalanced and added to RRSP’s. Guess thats why you stay balanced hey Garth? VLB saved the day! Seriously thanks for all the free advice, politics aside you really are doing a service to us blog dogs.

#56 end of the road on 03.22.19 at 8:08 pm

@#31 expat
“Speaks volumes.
Bank of house is closed”
*****
@44 crowdedelevatorfarts

Wow.
Interesting. Visa are maxxed, credit lines maxxed, HELOC’s maxxed, economy slowing down, …..
Its a Trudeaupocalypse2019!
Sorry folks…..couldnt resist.

*****

all true and sadly funny if not hysterical

Where does the journey go from here? Our cash is virtually worth less and less each day. Stocks seem overvalued and shaky but if CBs and primary TBTF banks are spreading the spoils from their magic money machines, the buybacks will be epic. Governments and their programs won’t allow any cuts or there’ll be blood in the streets. Universal Basic Income is being talked about and will probably arrive in some form or another. The “free” money won’t buy anything but that’s another story for another day.

Food and affordable housing will be the main concerns going forward. We’re not talking about deplorables who are now already homeless and can’t afford to eat. We are going to talk about the middle class that can barely make ends meet on two incomes. If one income falls by the wayside due to automation (industry 4.0) or recession related job cuts, it is game over for credit cards and mortgages.

Most are not even seeing the full extent of the bleakness our former privileged Western societies are evolving into.

#57 Basil Fawlty on 03.22.19 at 8:11 pm

The Fed was unable to normalize interest rates, as planned. They have now indicated that there will be no rate increases in 2019 and the yield curve has become inverted, which is an indicator of an upcoming recession.
I remember people on this blog warning that the Fed would be unable to normalize rates due to the fundamental weakness of the economy. It looks like they were correct and deserve an “Atta Boy”.

#58 Tony on 03.22.19 at 8:11 pm

Re: #2 NotLegalAdvice on 03.22.19 at 4:18 pm

Canadians are stupid but Americans will continue to drive down home prices because you can’t fool Americans.

#59 Mr Canada on 03.22.19 at 8:12 pm

Garth:

Q: What happens if you sing country music inverted?

A: You get your wife and job back!!

#60 Ronald Davidson on 03.22.19 at 8:17 pm

I believe we are long overdue for a good old fashioned depression. I make the argument that the US should be in one right now but with QE they created trillions of dollars out of thin air. Basically the largest counterfeit operation in human history. The world accepted it because they are the worlds reserve currency. The whole world economy is just like the housing boom and bust. When the whole world is relying on ever more debt eventually the whole house of cards collapses. Just like the housing market it is not different this time. The only difference is depressions have a much longer life cycle.

#61 SW on 03.22.19 at 8:19 pm

#136 Alistair McLaughlin on 03.22.19 at 1:43 pm
“…They also must know full well that when he does boot them, he will be alienating millions of women voters across the country…”

Oh come on, Mr. M. You normally do so much better than that.

Do you really think that women vote for women, or sympathize with women, just because they’re women?

Why do women in high office in Canada not get second chances?

My guess but it’s probably because women judge women more harshly than they do men. I don’t have any evidence except anecdotal.

Voting is always a choice of least worse options. (I’d just settle for competent administration, tbh.)

#62 Rexx Rock on 03.22.19 at 8:22 pm

Every country is broke so the only answer is zirp or nirp.They can spend and pretend but the writing is on the wall.Goldman Sachs boy the con man Carney was so blantly obvious with his sad speeches.Poloz the clown is no better,just puppets.History repeats itself,so be warned.I like to swing and day trade this volitilety.Its awesome for the stock and real estate market.Canada laws and regulations is like the wild west,remember the VSE.Its basically the same but a little more stricter.Enjoy life,you can’t stop central bank and goverment evil and corruption.

#63 Carter on 03.22.19 at 8:23 pm

I am amazed at how accurate you are on Housing but expected interest rates to continue to rise.
How is it that you assumed they would continue. None of the recovery is real it’s all been printed. Just thought you would have foreseen this as well.

US rates rise 9 times. I’d say that was accurate enough. – Garth

#64 Joan Harold on 03.22.19 at 8:24 pm

To the real mark and everyone else that thinks that 2008 or worse can’t happen again. Enjoy falling interest rates because if we are in this for a long time Nikkei Index 225 Japan went from 38,000 to low as 7,700 since 1989 and now still has not recovered at 21,627 today.

This is what the TSX and Dow Jones etc. all major stock markets around the world will happen to, 20% to 80% drops that will never recover and no to low dividends. Worldwide depression.

Look at the TSX, venture exchange etc., what crappy investments. Real estate is next guys.

I hope they push interest negative so the whole system collapses and people will know what life is really about.

Why did the entire asylum decided to visit tonight? – Garth

#65 Re-Cowtown on 03.22.19 at 8:26 pm

Link to Trump being cleared? Foxy News, I presume? – Garth

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

No further indictments. Read it anywhere. But make sure you check out CNN. They all look like a replay of The Night Hillary Lost. Anderson Cooper looks like his Shitzu just coughed up a hairball on his new red satin Pradas.

So, no link. – Garth

#66 Lucygirl on 03.22.19 at 8:30 pm

Hi garth, first time poster. Do you have a stock portfolio?
What do most of you blog dogs have? Etf or stock portfolio?
Cheers
Lucygirl

#67 Re-Cowtown on 03.22.19 at 8:32 pm

So now the Democrats want to subpoena Mueller. Have at it. Make sure you subpoena all of the other 13 rabid Democrats on Mueller’s staff who just said no indictments. Let the Dems eat their own.

As Napoleon said “Never interfere with your enemies when they are destroying themselves”

#68 earthboundmisfit on 03.22.19 at 8:39 pm

@59 Mr Canada …. The original punch line was … “You get your truck and your dog back”

#69 Deplorable dude on 03.22.19 at 8:41 pm

Trump Tweet….6am…Monday Morning…

“Now it’s my turn”….

#70 Shawn Allen on 03.22.19 at 8:41 pm

1977 called and asked why you bring it up now.

end of the road at 56 asked / claimed:

“Where does the journey go from here? Our cash is virtually worth less and less each day.”

**************************************
I can only assume that end of the road is actually not at the end of the road and has no memory of real inflation like we had in the 70’s.

Call me when you have experienced actual double digit inflation for several years in a row. We have now had about 2% inflation for close to 20 years. That is NOTHING like the big inflation of the 70’s and to some extent 80’s and even 90’s. Some of us were there.

#71 Yellow Vest on 03.22.19 at 8:45 pm

Re-Cowtown on 03.22.19 at 7:44 pm
Mueller releases report… and… Trump cleared.

And (as I said last week) the Democrats are so messed up that they think that Mueller is now part of the Russian Collusion cover-up.

Wow………..

Link to Trump being cleared? Foxy News, I presume? – Garth

+++++++++++++++++++++

Unlike the radicalized far left fakenews CNN and MSNBC who have for two years had a GORILLION pieces of evidence according to people like Eric Swalwell and Adam “shifty” Schiff.

#72 Lee on 03.22.19 at 8:55 pm

Why is a bond price rising 3% in a week considered a spike? Big whoop.

#73 Nonplused on 03.22.19 at 8:55 pm

The problem with today’s blog is that it contains nothing new or controversial. Anyone who disagrees with any of it just hasn’t been following Garth long enough.

But sometimes there are other things that need to be discussed. In Canada, right now, that is SNC-Lavalin and whether Trudeau did or did not drop a big turd on the desk of Jody Wilson-Raybould. With an election coming up, these are the things we need to know, not whether you can squeak another 0.02% out of your portfolio in the next months.

It strikes me that the Liberal policy of pandering to Quebec and Ontario while shafting the rest of the country is evidenced in what we’ve heard so far. The allegations against SNC are not really in question, at least in the media. But Trudeau decided they have to be protected because of Quebec jobs. Yet Alberta is getting shafted on it’s major export, which is ironically something everybody uses every single day and we build roads out of.

People don’t understand oil & gas. The roads you drive on? Heavy oil mixed with gravel. And we put that stuff everywhere we want to drive!!!! It’s the world’s largest oil spill!!! And we are worried about the little bit of oil that might leak from a pipeline! It simply indicates you don’t know nothing about nothing! Sure, a water born oil leak is a different matter, but on land all that happened was we accidentally make a small parking lot where we didn’t intend to, and the spoiled dirt can be scooped up and re-purposed. But yet you don’t think twice about having your asphalt driveway resealed or gassing up your car. The very natives who are protesting the Trans-Mountain expansion are happy to fuel up their quads with gasoline. Even the poor protesters ride a diesel powered bus to their protests. It’s just so stupid.

So where we are at right now in Canadian politics is that 2 Quebec based companies, SNC and Bombardier, are scooping up legal protections and subsidies, while Alberta is being told they are not allowed to do business but still have to borrow money in order to pay transfer payments to Quebec. This is the sort of thing that could cause separation. Not of the Quebec sort where it was clearly blackmail, but of the Alberta sort where we would be better off. We won’t have a deficit even with Notely at the helm if we could shake Quebec off off our backs. The price of confederacy is getting too high. These are the issues we need to be talking about.

Divorce is always an option. It has to be when your spouse turns into an abusive user and not a contributor to the relationship. You have to wake them up to the alternative. Quebec and BC will either start playing fair, or they will be ejected from the game. All Alberta has to do is take their ball and go home.

Notely has only done one thing right in her years in office, and that was to say we wouldn’t sell our oil for so low and restrict production. I think that is right because the oil belongs to the province, and that means me, and I don’t see why I should have to give it away. Once we give it away we can’t get it back.

#74 Bobby Bittman on 03.22.19 at 9:07 pm

No indictments? Even Ken Starr got perjury and obstruction of justice.

I guess it doesn’t matter because most Canadians have already found their criminal they are just waiting for their favourite MSM journalist to update them with what the crime is.

#75 SoggyShorts on 03.22.19 at 9:36 pm

#67 Re-Cowtown on 03.22.19 at 8:32 pm
So now the Democrats want to subpoena Mueller.
********************
You mean they want to subpoena the report and make it public, right?

#76 AK on 03.22.19 at 9:49 pm

Every guest on MSNBC tonight is suffering from TDS(Trump Derangement Syndrome). LMFAO..

#77 Ace Goodheart on 03.22.19 at 10:00 pm

Heroin is the music drug. Most of the best music we know, from Keith Richards’ magic guitar, to Kurt Cobain’s haunting vocals, Eric Clapton and Jim Morrison, all of the world’s greatest lyrical and tonal achievements were accomplished while high on the by products of Afghan poppies. The “stan” countries of the world, through their cultivation of the pretty little red flowers whose seed heads can be scraped to produce the oil that is the raw material for this musical inspiration wonder drug, helped to shape both classical and modern music as we know it today.

It is common knowledge that the greats of classical music composed their masterpieces with a little help from the opium dens of their times. Heroin of course is opium’s little brother, the poor man’s version of the high class wonder that drove the British into at least three wars and helped Chopin to perfect his greatest compositions.

So when you hear a composer who just won a Grammy sing eloquently about “white rabbit” or a new pop singer manages to hit that perfect bass line over and over again, just remember who brought it to you. Courtesy of the “Stan’s”, (Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Krgyzstan), these wonderful little spots that produce most of the world’s poppy seed supply, and allow our modern and classical musicians to delight us with soul touching composition after heart string pulling ballad.

From the architects of the 27 club to you.

And people wonder why the Donald, the world’s most successful Russian agent, has managed to fool North American and Western Europe, pulling off the greatest hat trick known to mankind.

It’s all about the opium……..

This comment was edited. – Garth

#78 Biddy on 03.22.19 at 10:04 pm

Now will people believe me when I say all the noise is really just to scare sheeple into closed mortgages?

How many people in the last couple years panicked and locked in their rates, I wonder?

Oh the banks love you, they do.

Variable every friggen time and forever, folks.

#79 SoggyShorts on 03.22.19 at 10:26 pm

#77 Ace Goodheart on 03.22.19 at 10:00 pm
This comment was edited. – Garth

Did it make sense before?

#80 tccontrarian on 03.22.19 at 10:28 pm

Don’t worry everyone – you’re richer than you think!
A certain bank told you so. HELO – C anyone?

Inverted Yield curve – usually spells trouble. With everyone maxxed out on debt (mortgage, corporate, student, auto, government), I’m betting for a serious recession up ahead.
Precious metals sector strength has also been signaling this. Foolish to ignore the ‘signs’ that have proven reliable in the past.

Buckle up folks!

TCC

#81 kbean on 03.22.19 at 10:36 pm

The yield curve inverted, let’s stock up on canned food and hide in a shelter! A bunch of drama queens here…

Don’t invest the money you need in a short while. Invest the rest. Stay liquid and balanced. You’ll do just fine.

#82 Smoking Man on 03.22.19 at 10:56 pm

No more indictments, zero colution. Report done. Meuller done.
As I predicted yet again.

Now T2 ain’t out of the woods yet. Blatant obsteuction of justice. He’s one pissed off woman from wearing a zebra suit.

A great day indeed.

#83 AACI Homedog on 03.22.19 at 10:59 pm

Thank you Mr. Turner.

#84 NoName on 03.22.19 at 11:02 pm

#41 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.22.19 at 7:31 pm
Trumpocalypse2019
“All hell will break loose soon.’
+++++

But that’s what you recently said about the Ides of March……and previously about North Korea after they fired a “No Dong” Missile ( the Freudian theories abound) over Japan….and before that ….Trump as the newly elected President….
Apparently being consistently wrong doesn’t bother or silence you….
Is that a side effect of too much Viagra and no partners in the bunker?

—-

he is not taking viagra, he woud be blind long time ago, must be something else.

http://www.nbcnews.com/id/8004291/ns/health-mens_health/t/blindness-noted-men-using-impotence-drugs/#.XJWgkslKhtQ

#85 fishman on 03.22.19 at 11:49 pm

Heroin the music drug? Like in a funeral dirge. In the last 14 months I’ve lost one ex deckhand from the island. Been to another “celebration of life” in Steveston. Another went on a dragger in Steveston. Just surfaced that another shrimp fishing buddy for years that didn’t “just die”. Recreational cocaine, snort a little H, a little Oxi for the back? But hey, I got a dealer I can trust. Out west here on the waterfront the boys are dropping like flies. Dead.

#86 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.22.19 at 11:51 pm

Why did the entire asylum decided to visit tonight? – Garth

******

Friday night and the plebes are over extended on their credit cards …..
OR
Its a waxing Full moon and Spring has arrived?
Hormones and hay fever…..
Crazy shite

#87 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.22.19 at 11:57 pm

@#66 Lucygirl
“Hi garth, first time poster. Do you have a stock portfolio?
What do most of you blog dogs have? Etf or stock portfolio?”
*****

Hi Lucy.

Garth doesn’t give out specific financial advice to anonymous peoples …. because its pointless AND the “Fiscal Police” would financially “slap the cuff’s” on his butt.
But dont worry. Your question wasnt wrong or stupid.
Plenty of regular commenter’s here….ask the exact same questions …….

#88 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.23.19 at 12:10 am

@#67 Re-Cowtown
“As Napoleon said “Never interfere with your enemies when they are destroying themselves””
+++++

Trump & Muller ……. pfffffft.
5 years of turmoil/history…on and on western political history goes…

Its all about the long game …..

And if we’re going to pretend we’re pseudo intellectual types….

Napoleon also said,

“China is a sleeping lion. Let her sleep, for when she wakes she will shake the world.”

But that was 150 years before we had nukes to counter balance the meat grinder of war.

#89 Nick B on 03.23.19 at 12:44 am

This isn’t a big surprise. Recession in the next 12 months. Bonds and gold will do well. Equities, not great overall but some sectors will be good. This happens, not a big deal.

#90 Stodgy stocks hold! on 03.23.19 at 12:50 am

Interest rates going lower works for me, capital projects are cheeper to finance. People still need to turn on lights, heating, cooling, communicate, drive there cars, long term contracts with pipelines essentials that support equities maintaining there edge. Average dividend 4%/5%. What’s not to like, buy… time tested essentials, BCE, FTS, EMA, ENB, SU, AQN, NPI, H, CU, TRP, XEI…..ZUT. Slow and steady wins the race. Cheers!

#91 Smoking Man on 03.23.19 at 1:10 am

The number 1 thing in the western world that’s taken the culture to the hwy to hell is not toxic masculinity.

Its toxic sensitivity.

Garth is chicken shit not allowing my great late evening drunken posts that make people think. They never get past the delete button lately.

Can you blame him. Think Gartho needs bigger cowboy boots. Soon The word cowboy will be branded as evil.

Now Jordan Petterson is being banded as a white supremacists. Really?

Jerry Seinfeld wont do comedy at Universities.

My motto. You cant bend what you cant offend.

I’ll keep trying. It’s what I do. Even if I get hit by the delete button head first.

Truth can only be found in what drunks and little kids say.
Outside of that it’s a sales pitch.

Dr Smoking Man
PhD Herdonomics

#92 NoName on 03.23.19 at 1:15 am

#77 Ace Goodheart on 03.22.19 at 10:00 pm

funy you mention that, when micro chip wee in its infancy many circuit designers resorted using lsd so they can come up with new ides and cope with complexity of ever increasing complexity of circuits.

It would not surprise me that good chunk of tech employees is tripping any given time. There is i video on youtube where one of the fasng employee aks question is it safe if he starts with smaller doses and what is “maximum” recommended…

interesting read
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2011/sep/06/psychedelics-computer-revolution-lsd

Stoner is scientist, or scientist is a stoner…
https://www.ranker.com/list/discoveries-made-by-people-on-drugs/swiperight

#93 Where's My Money Gone Greedeau? on 03.23.19 at 1:16 am

Re: #18 Homeless in B.C. on 03.22.19 at 5:59 pm
Buffalo Chronical article about Sheer calling for an investigation into BMO using service providers to bribe elected first nations members to accept Trans Mountain Pipeline- Not a word of this in Canadian Media. Is this a non-story or does it have something to do with BMO spending huge on media advertising? Maybe it is like what Hunter Thompson said about Nixon and his crew. “These people are immoral, unethical and corrupt to the degree that men can’t describe it”
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
CKNW producer in Vancouver that I spoke to early this week told me that it is “fake” news, when I tried to ask the host the same question on air; wouldn’t let me go on air to ask the question, even though most times they let you on.
That’s all you need to know, bought and paid for, just like the spew they threw out when the BC Lieberals were in power.
It never ends.
Not a peep, yay or nay, from any Canadian news outlets. Now why is that? Seems awfully akin to the federal Liberal SCNL shovel work.

#94 Smoking Man on 03.23.19 at 1:27 am

DELETED

#95 TRUMP 2020 on 03.23.19 at 1:27 am

ALERT!! ALERT!! ALERT!!

And you thought this just quietly went away.

TRUDEAU’s world is about to get inverted.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/wilson-raybould-to-reveal-more-details-documents-on-snc-affair-1.1233246

#96 Smoking Man on 03.23.19 at 2:06 am

DELETED

#97 Dolce Vita on 03.23.19 at 4:55 am

Speaking of balanced, I subscribe on Twitter, YouTube, etc. to opinions from the Left, Right and in between.

In theory, there ought to be learning in this.

What I conclude instead is this:

Never have I read so many ardent bitch sessions about you name it (including this Blog’s Comment section). As Carlin put it “…people walking around all day long, every minute of the day worried about everything…we’re so self important…”

I am guilty of that more than once. After my AM Twitter read alone, I feel as if I need a Valium.

Then again, malcontentedness I imagine has existed since time immemorial.

Social Media has just amplified it is all.

————————————————————

Garth shoot me but I laughed out loud at the expense of poor Justin on this wordless tweet with only an image by Michelle Rempel:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D2TYDVkUgAEm86X.jpg:large

The poor guy cannot win for losing it seems nowadays and blamed for everything whether it is his fault or not. My, oh my.

Buona Mattina d'[*]Italia.

#98 Gordon on 03.23.19 at 6:02 am

#9 Just Ed

Why do you even bother investing if you’re trying to track 1% moves?

Pull on your pants and buy something smart, like a CSCO, $USD 24 to $ $54 and a 6% dividend. This mindless aversion to intelligent investing is astounding.

I had a ‘friend’ call me with news of a $300,000 net windfall, made over theee years on a ballsy call that had them running like a marathon through incredible effort and risk. My congratulations were by way of reminding them of what they would have faced if they’d stayed in Canada under the Trnudeau Tax Regime. My calculator whipped through the direct taxes and mandatory deductions, figured in all average expenses of living in Canada, even frugally, and came up with a scenario of a person making $100,000 per year being unable to save $300K in twenty years with paltry surplus she nvested in a 6% return. The moral of the story is to get out of Canada, change your fearful mindset about investing if you want to finish the game without being a penniless loser. Carpe Diem.

#99 Andrew on 03.23.19 at 7:02 am

It’s time for plan B(itcoin)

It’s worked great so far, right? – Garth

#100 re., T on 03.23.19 at 7:50 am

Sold all holding in all mutual funds at 3:50pm today. Moved everything (substantial) to cash.

Happy to circle the calendar and say this was the final top.

Central banks going into next recession with near zero rates to prop things up. Have at it. We shall see.

The picture should not be a dog upside down (inverted)

It should be a gun with no bullets. Germany was first.

………

negative rates , lol. What a shit show

buy Cdn banks/utilities — the dividends are tax free , just play the game. You can sell covered calls on holdings too, enjoy the premium (or buy etf that does,the monthly/quarterly income straight to you acct– dont use an advisor, unless you want to give 1% of your money away :)..). Never be completely out,….if you feel the world if coming all down then buy farm land up north, get out.

#101 maxx on 03.23.19 at 8:00 am

@ #3

Yes.
Yes.
Absolutely.
No.

Great ways to stack the odds in your favour abound. Save like there’s no tomorrow (in terms of central bank proficiency, there isn’t), don’t get lured into debt because money is cheap (it’s only cheap in the short term – you’ll either pay 20%+ on credit cards or double the price of your dwelling with the amort.) and shop like a demon. Retail makes others rich, not you baby. Consumers should aim to pay no more than 10-50% on the dollar for anything, with very few exceptions. The more you learn about ways to save and keep your cash, the better you get at it.

And that goes one he!! of a long way to stuffing and growing your side of the ledger and balancing out the crap that central wankers keep spewing out to try to save the “economy”.

Save like mad, sleep and fuggedaboudit.

#102 The real Kip (Ret) on 03.23.19 at 8:30 am

“Nobody lies. Conditions change. We had 9 Fed increases. – Garth”

We don’t live in the United States. The BOC rate is 1.75%, dirt cheap.

It rose 5 times. – Garth

#103 Neo on 03.23.19 at 8:30 am

US rates rose 9 times. I’d say that was accurate enough. – Garth

That is a bit disingenuous. Yes, but the actual yields have gone nowhere. They actually haven’t really moved at all. That is how messed up the economy was and still is.

Jan. 1, 2017 before the Fed started hiking rates the 10 year 2.42%

March 23, 2019 after the Fed has hiked 9 times the 10 year 2.44%

A complete kabooky theatre farce.

So what? US consumer, loan and mortgage rates rose with the Fed. That was the intent. I said rates would rise from ZIRP. They did. – Garth

#104 AK on 03.23.19 at 9:02 am

#101 Neo on 03.23.19 at 8:30 am
“That is a bit disingenuous. Yes, but the actual yields have gone nowhere. They actually haven’t really moved at all. That is how messed up the economy was and still is.
Jan. 1, 2017 before the Fed started hiking rates the 10 year 2.42%
March 23, 2019 after the Fed has hiked 9 times the 10 year 2.44%
A complete kabooky theatre farce.”
====================================

Take a look what happened during the 50’s and 60’s. The exact same playbook is unfolding these days.

#105 Penny Henny on 03.23.19 at 9:12 am

More SNC dirt.
“The Chronicle noticed that articles published on our digital platform relating to the ongoing SNC Lavalin scandal stopped appearing in Google News search results in Canada. (Our coverage continues to appear in regular Google search results, and in Google News results in the United States).”

https://buffalochronicle.com/2019/03/16/at-trudeaus-behest-gould-instructed-google-news-to-limit-canadian-access-to-foreign-press/

Can someone say ‘Cover up’

#106 Trumpocalypse2019 on 03.23.19 at 9:27 am

Trump is in the bunker in Florida, surrounded by staff, trembling at the news that may come out.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/23/politics/donald-trump-robert-mueller-report-russia/index.html

He is preparing Distraction Plans A, B and C.

All involve war.

North Korea.
Iran.
Syria.
China.
Russia.

and more.

Silence is not golden. Stock up on supplies NOW.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/22/politics/donald-trump-robert-mueller-investigation-finished-presidency-week-in-review/index.html

“The last week of the Trump presidency as we know it”

PREPARE

#107 Holland Roats on 03.23.19 at 9:27 am

Great time to start nibbling on more stocks. Put that huge cash pile to work and nibble away slowly. Great time to be an investor with such massive Fed support with low low rates and this healthy correction to allow for nibbling. ETFs and stocks, enjoy the sales!

#108 Penny Henny on 03.23.19 at 9:28 am

#29 Dig Deep on 03.22.19 at 6:56 pm
#14 Bob Dog

Indeed.

The Winter Of Our Discontent.

Waiting to ride the wave of constructive dismissal and a six month non-compete clause.

///////

Agreed, it’s the only way to go.

#109 Remembrancer on 03.23.19 at 9:36 am

#105 Penny Henny on 03.23.19 at 9:12 am
Can someone say ‘Cover up’
——————————-
Can someone say ” if you can’t go to google.ca and search Buffalo Chronicle SNC-Lavalin” and figure this out for yourself you should stay off the internet”?

#110 dharma bum on 03.23.19 at 9:39 am

In fact, lower rates are designed to stimulate things by encouraging people to borrow, spend and gorge themselves on dollops of new debt. More consumer spending fuels corporate profits and economic activity.
– Garth
——————————————————————–

ad·dic·tion
/əˈdikSH(ə)n/Submit
noun
the fact or condition of being addicted to a particular substance, thing, or activity.

“Addiction is a psychological and physical inability to stop consuming a chemical, drug, activity, or substance, even though it is causing psychological and physical harm.”

Some addictions also involve an inability to stop partaking in activities, such as gambling, borrowing money, spending money, or working. In these circumstances, a person has a behavioural addiction.

The government, banks, fiscal policymakers, corporations, real estate humpers, and advertisers are the pushers that enable the weak minded consumercentric spendaholic plebes to become full blown debt addicts.

The wealth gap will continue to expand, until it becomes a monumentally yawning impassible chasm.

1%ers will continue to reap the benefits as the rest of the stuff-hungry masses englut themselves on debt to fulfill their insatiable craving to buy crap they cannot afford with money they do not have and never will.

The consequences will be epic and intergenerational, ultimately destroying the middle class for decades to come.

And now back to our regularly scheduled program.

#111 Luc on 03.23.19 at 9:39 am

looks like millennials are screwed…
https://ottawacitizen.com/news/national/the-millennial-dilemna-and-what-it-means-for-the-rest-of-us?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR2Sy_y9X8m3vqGw6tZCZIBgeEYmxpPwKM1Mzht0xTXchviF_7wwc7hk7xk#Echobox=1553271186

#112 Stress Test on 03.23.19 at 9:39 am

If rates have peaked for some time, how can the stress test be justified now?

#113 Penny Henny on 03.23.19 at 9:40 am

Why did the entire asylum decided to visit tonight? – Garth
/////////

Not everyone, Stan’s still in lock up

#114 Dolce Vita on 03.23.19 at 10:07 am

#105 Penny Henny

The Buffalo Chronicle:

“Insider information.
Anti-establishment perspective.”

Required reading if you want some GOOD DIRT.

Yours was very good and here is some DIRT THAT IS JUST PLAIN SLEAZE – we find out from the Yanks that the Chairman of SNC-Lavalin, Kevin G. Lynch did the phone calling to Gov:

The CEO of SNC-Lavalin, Neil Bruce, said he did not threaten moving or job losses BUT the Chairman of SNC-Lavalin, Kevin G. Lynch, did.

Lynch placed the call to Wernick on October 15 replete with threats and worries (move HQ, job losses, widespread bribery of First Nations officials in BC by SNC-Lavalin and BMO [the pipeline] of which Lynch is Vice Chairman of BMO Financial Group, Armageddon, etc.).

I tell you, this SNC-Lavalin fiasco has tentacles all over the place.

https://buffalochronicle.com/2019/03/22/bmos-kevin-lynch-threatened-job-losses-in-call-to-wernick/

#115 Sideshow Rob on 03.23.19 at 10:26 am

“As Napoleon said “Never interfere with your enemies when they are destroying themselves””

I wonder if he said that while marching uncontested across Russia?

#116 Dissident on 03.23.19 at 10:28 am

#79 SoggyShorts on 03.22.19 at 10:26 pm

#77 Ace Goodheart on 03.22.19 at 10:00 pm
This comment was edited. – Garth

Did it make sense before?

– – – – – – – –

Lmaooooooooooooooooooo!

#117 Ace Goodheart on 03.23.19 at 10:31 am

http://www.galwaynl.ca/

Danny William’s masterpiece. $100,000,000.00 to build a city.

As the province crumbles under its debt load and faces a bill of almost a billion dollars a year to subsidise it’s electricity rates after the Muskrat Falls debacle, its former Premier has built…………..a planned city.

I have not yet visited this place, but have been reading a lot about it. From what I can gather, it is a 15,000 resident town/city on the outskirts of St. John’s, which has shops, restaurants, and a lot of high end homes, basically a fully functional city, with everything already there……………

Except, of course, the 15,000 people.

Galway is largely empty. Almost no one lives there. Certainly not 15,000 people.

This will be an interesting item to keep an eye on, as it may turn out to be one of Canada’s newest “ghost cities”.

Or they may be able to sell all the newly built high end homes to wealthy Newfoundlanders who work at the many high paying jobs to be found in the Province, and all may be fine.

We’ll see…

#118 Corruption on 03.23.19 at 10:50 am

#114 Dolce Vita – I am shocked by this all, and the First Nation Officials were bribed to sign off without the bands knowing about it? Could Jody know about this corruption, and that is why the Liberals won’t allow her to speak? Sounds like a cover up to me, and everyone is involved from the top on down.

#119 TurnerNation on 03.23.19 at 11:13 am

To make sense, invert every utterance of our elite controllers.
“UN sustainable development” means really: total implosion. As we see in South america. Full communism coming. Don’t believe me just watch.

Now floating the idea of free dental care for all. Just show up.The 60% taxers got it.

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/letters_to_the_editors/2017/02/24/add-dental-care-to-ohip.html

Even more taxes

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/toronto/article-create-new-land-transfer-tax-bracket-on-home-sales-over-3-million/

#120 ????? on 03.23.19 at 11:19 am

#77 Ace Goodheart on 03.22.19 at 10:00 pm

So when you hear a composer who just won a Grammy sing eloquently about “white rabbit” or a new pop singer manages to hit that perfect bass line over and over again, just remember who brought it to you. Courtesy of the “Stan’s”, (Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Krgyzstan), these wonderful little spots that produce most of the world’s poppy seed supply, and allow our modern and classical musicians to delight us with soul touching composition after heart string pulling ballad.

Does that include Towdystan?

#121 Reality is stark on 03.23.19 at 11:23 am

We have lost our way.
Marriage rates are plummeting and there is massive gender distrust. Our society is failing but the government doesn’t care because they can import all the people they need. You can boost the country’s intelligence level and avoid birth abnormalities by importing people.
The comical part is when you talk to immigrants about the way Canadians think and how they prioritize.
For instance I spoke with a young woman with a deep accent from the Czech Republic who thought she would have a difficult adjustment here. She said she dates the best young professional men Canada has to offer. She described it like picking cherries.
I expect at some point immigrant communities will open their churches to see if they can help get our people back on track.
Alcohol abuse among women is now approaching that of men. The animosity we foment due to idiotic social policy causes people to be alone and resort to drugs for solace.
How do we expect our economy to perform when the people make choices to be obese and expect $200,000 per year in medical services?
The west is in a deflationary spiral at the same time as the population expects more taxes to bail them out of a litany of bad choices.
Your property taxes are about to explode. The Feds will give the Provinces less, the Provinces will therefore give less to Municipalities. The Municipalities will be forced to raise taxes.
Their is no political will to reduce public service spending.
Hopefully immigrants can fix the place.

That’s it. I’m outta here. – Garth

#122 oh boy on 03.23.19 at 12:42 pm

@#121 Reality is stark on 03.23.19 at 11:23 am

We have lost our way.

_____________

dude, I think you may have lost your way.

#123 Penny Henny on 03.23.19 at 1:02 pm

#109 Remembrancer on 03.23.19 at 9:36 am
#105 Penny Henny on 03.23.19 at 9:12 am
Can someone say ‘Cover up’
——————————-
Can someone say ” if you can’t go to google.ca and search Buffalo Chronicle SNC-Lavalin” and figure this out for yourself you should stay off the internet”?
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Now after you receive your search results then select the ‘news’ tab at the top of the results page. As you will see there is no results from the Buffalo Chronicle.