Barbarians

Poor Jake. He sees barbarians at the gate. For him, they’re already in the White House and Queen’s Park. They’re grasping for the levers of power in Alberta and Ottawa, where yesterday Conservatives were on the attack. “The CPC actions yesterday (drowning out the finance minister in the house) are the actions of barbarians uninterested in the proper functioning of parliament,” he scowls. “Scheer’s racist hate-speech is directly lifted from the Republican/Bannon cheat sheet; how are these not the words of a barbarian?”

Yup, it’s a good example of the emotional polarization which has gripped society. Americans are already cleaved. Canadians are drifting towards the same result. To both the lefties and their barbarians, the world seems under attack. Risks are mounting that the other guys might take over and wreck everything. Progressives would destroy capitalism and traditional values. Conservatives would extend the wealth gap, coddle the rich and rip the social fabric. Fuelling it all  has been the breakdown of common media (newspapers, TV news) and the inexorable rise of online communities where people listen only to those who think like them. We get tribal. Real fast.

But Jake has a decent query for me: “How does the small investor survive the coming decade with the combined effects of incredibly incompetent governance in the US, UK, and possibly soon here too; and climate change? This is not a frivolous question.”

No, it’s not. Populist politics is spreading. Trump. Brazil. Brexit. Italy. Walls. Trade wars. The idea of open borders is a flashpoint. And yet it’s likely millions of people will be on the move as the climate does alter. (Lefties say it’s anthropogenic. Cons say that’s crap.)

First, Jake, let’s acknowledge humans love to think they live in unique times. At heart we’re drama queens. We believe current forces are overwhelming and the outcome will be epic. Therefore we must take extraordinary action. In fact, every time stock markets correct folks panic and think they’re going to zero. They rush into cash, often triggering losses on assets that soon rise again. Fools. But that’s us. We never learn.

Second, none of this is new. People have coalesced into tribes throughout history. Globalism, free trade, economic interdependence, international banks, courts and rules – all this stuff is new, the product of a post-WW2 world. Yes, it’s brought great wealth, but with it a forced integration and perceived inequality. American rust belt jobs going to China, for example. Britons railing against immigration. The belief foreign money pumps Vancouver real estate. The meme’s spread that middle class folks are the new downtrodden. Victimized. Astute politicians like Trump have brilliantly tapped into a deep vein of resentment.

So, third, change is normal. Focus on two things when deciding how to invest. What do you need accomplished to live a contented life? And what are the principles of investing that don’t change, to get you there? Despite barbarians. The climate. Or conflict.

For most people hiding in cash because they fear loss is an awful strategy. Over the sweep of time, it’s failed. Only those with big pots of money can afford to forego growth. So one principle that needs to be embraced is that markets always rise in the long run.  Over 70% of the time, for example, equities grow in value as the economy expands. Periods of contraction are short. Periods of expansion are long.

Also, this: trying to time markets is another fail. Especially now, in an era of rapid technological change, social media and high-frequency trading. By the time you learn important news, markets have already reacted. The best strategy if you have a proper portfolio is to do absolutely nothing. The three most volatile years of our lifetimes – 2008 through 2010 – proved that. Those who bailed in the middle of a storm took heavy losses. Those who ignored the noise lost nothing. And did the same thing not occur at the end of 2018 – the market massacre last Christmas?

Look at what an investor with a balanced and diversified portfolio (60/40) has experienced:  so far in 2019 the US market is up 12% and the Canadian one almost 13%. The 12-month gain (which embraces the big sell-off last year) is more than 6% for both. Even bond prices have popped higher. Yes, some assets are flat (emerging markets) and some have dropped (preferreds) but the dividends keep roiling in. So embrace another principle: never exit an asset class. You have absolutely no idea what’s coming.

 So what about barbarians? Recession? A real estate plop? Regime change? The polar vortex? Bernie Sanders, AOC and Jason Kenney?

The overriding defence is simple. Be balanced, with safe assets and growth assets in the same portfolio. And be diversified, with ETFs rather than stocks, exposure to Canada the US and international markets, and multiple asset classes. This blog recently gave you an indication of how to construct such a portfolio – one which has delivered nicely over the past eight years despite days of honey and times of vinegar.

Your enemy, Jake, is your own insecurity. Paralysis by analysis. Every day you spend worried about your future is one day less you have of it. Like barbarians, paper losses and gains come and go.

Time just goes.

156 comments ↓

#1 Smoking Man on 03.21.19 at 4:52 pm

“let her speak”
“let her speak”
“let her speak”

Was epic…. only way to fight radical activism is with radical activism…

Canadian politics use to boring. Not anymore.

#2 Raging Ranter on 03.21.19 at 4:52 pm

Poor Jake seems trigggered by democracy. Oh wait, I mean populism. Nassim Taleb identifies the fine line between populism and democracy according to people like Jake as follows: When people vote like you, it’s democracy. When people vote differently than you, it’s populism.

#3 SoggyShorts on 03.21.19 at 4:59 pm

Hey all you DIY dogs, what do you use as a benchmark?
I just went self-directed this year and I’m 1% over where I’d be if I went all in on VGRO.TO and slightly better positioned taxwise.
10 ETFs with 4 of them just being the USD equivalents
30% in USD
holdings are
20% Canadian
60% US
13% Foreign
7% Emerging

I know I’m overweight American, but I’m OK with that.

#4 Smartalox on 03.21.19 at 5:00 pm

Populist Politics, whether from the right OR from the left, are the politics of Fear. That’s why bullies make great populist leaders.

Identify the fears / displeasures of the target electorate; use these to convince people that they are victims of some scheme that is working against them. Offer them a place in a like-minded group or community, a place where the poor, oppressed, victimized can “stand together” against the opposition – whomever that opposition may be, at that moment.

As anyone who has been bullied can tell you: there’s the ‘in-crowd’, and ‘everyone else’. And if you’re not standing with the ‘in crowd’ then you’re probably a target.

#5 Willy Wonka on 03.21.19 at 5:03 pm

New report from Transparency International illustrating how billions from unknown origins have been funneled into residential GTA real-estate in just the last 10 years. Money laundering comes top of mind. This is one part of the puzzle as to how GTA real-estate values exploded in the last 10 years despite minimal local wage growth.

http://www.transparencycanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/BOT-GTA-Report-WEB-copy.pdf

Inconsequential in a market that huge. – Garth

#6 yorkville renter on 03.21.19 at 5:20 pm

Inconsequential in a market that huge. – Garth

Sure, but let’s close the gaps that allow this to happen in the first place

#7 Go For it on 03.21.19 at 5:21 pm

Blessed are the meek for they will inherit the earth

#8 Penny Henny on 03.21.19 at 5:23 pm

My idea for a lawn sign ahead of the next federal election.

“Sorry Justin, there has been an erosion of trust”

This sign could apply to every person not intending to vote Liberal (and some that might)

#9 jess on 03.21.19 at 5:28 pm

ICRICT Support IMF Calls For Overhaul Of International Tax Rules To Stop Tax Avoidance By Multinationals
ICRICT Support IMF Calls For Overhaul Of International Tax Rules To Stop Tax Avoidance By Multinationals

The International Monetary Fund is releasing a paper this Sunday, calling for an overhaul of the international tax systems. This paper is a timely and much needed intervention as the OECD holds a public consultation in Paris this week on taxation of the digital economy. ICRICT commissioner Edmund Valpy Fitzgerald has issued a comment on the paper.
Read More →
Mar 10, 2019

https://www.icrict.com/

replacing corp tax with say what?

Ten reasons why the Destination Based Cash Flow Tax is a terrible idea

March 19, 2019 by Nick Shaxson

..”the OECD, the club of rich countries that has the main role of overseeing international tax rules, and the IMF, which has considerable influence (and a rather more representative global membership than the OECD) have both recognised what we’ve been saying for years: that the hallowed fundamental principles underpinning the international tax system for a century are not fit for purpose. Around $500 billion in corporate taxes are being dodged each year as a result of this failure – and it’s getting worse,….

There are, at present, three main competing visions of how things might proceed which have political traction. They are:

Try to patch up the existing system. That’s what’s been going on with the OECD’s Base Erosion and Profit Shifting, or ‘BEPS’ project, which is now collapsing into complexity and incoherence because, as we’ve said, the fundamental principles underpinning the system are unworkable. The system will limp on for a while yet.
Unitary tax, with apportionment by formula. This is the basis for our preferred vision, which we believe would be best for rich and poor countries, and would also provide the most coherent basis for taxing multinationals. There’s a very simple explainer here, a longer document here, and an intermediate-level discussion here, showing how it could be implemented partially, or in stages, and combined with a minimum tax arrangement.

Destination-Based Cash Flow Tax (DBCFT) – which was also the heart of a dramatic tax reform proposal by Donald Trump’s administration in 2016, the so-called ‘Ryan Blueprint’ which was (thankfully) never implemented. We explain the DBCFT below.
This blog examines the DBCFT in detail

https://www.taxjustice.net/2019/03/19/ten-reasons-why-the-destination-based-cash-flow-tax-is-a-terrible-idea/

#10 North of sixty on 03.21.19 at 5:31 pm

Gartho…I would lie low if I were you. You think you are better than Transparency International…those damn right wing populists and their conservative data analytics and BI tools.
We should use only reports approved by the alt-left “progressives”…ROTFL

#11 Bob Dog on 03.21.19 at 5:33 pm

Past Performance Is No Guarantee of Future Results

Intransigence guarantees them. – Garth

#12 Penny Henny on 03.21.19 at 5:34 pm

#3 SoggyShorts on 03.21.19 at 4:59 pm
Hey all you DIY dogs, what do you use as a benchmark?

I know I’m overweight American, but I’m OK with that.

/////////////////

So many of them are. Sad

#13 Sovavia on 03.21.19 at 5:43 pm

“The belief foreign money pumps Vancouver real estate.”

It is foreign money which is behind the Canadian real estate bubble, but not the way you think.

Canada has one of the highest current account deficits in its history (as % of GDP). The two places which are responsible for this international deficit are Europe and China.

It is foreign investors who have funded the Canadian banks all this time, and the banks have chosen to pump up the collateral value of real estate.

#14 Sideshow Rob on 03.21.19 at 5:45 pm

Memo to Jake:
Take a deep breath
Turn off CNN forever
Enjoy life. It’s still a pretty good planet.

#15 jess on 03.21.19 at 5:49 pm

Inconsequential ? snow washing /money laundering /tax fraud?

….the companies turned to unregulated lenders that are not subjected to anti-money laundering provisions.

#16 Penny Henny on 03.21.19 at 5:51 pm

“1.67% is the market telling you the next interest rate move will be down”

https://business.financialpost.com/investing/canadian-bonds-due-in-more-than-a-decade-yielding-less-than-cash

#17 the ryguy - In cabo on 03.21.19 at 6:00 pm

My neighbour down here rents his place on AirBnB, usually for a week or two at a time. So this winter Ive met a bunch of different people. No word of a lie, this morning I met an investment banker from Nigeria..we both had a laugh when I asked if he was the prince that emailed me trying to get his money out of the country.

We started chatting and it turns out the previous couple weeks he was in Maryland and before that in Montreal. I ask why, he says “We are looking at investment properties for our clients”. I said “oh like the Chinese do?” He laughed and said “absolutely..its the easiest way to hedge against currency fluctuations, government instability and its a great way to make sure your estate makes it to your children”. Then he specifically mentioned Vancouver, Seattle and London as places that are overcooked because “too many people did it there already”

Sorry Garth, You are one of the few still denying the foreign money.

Oh and he also said Nigerians love Trump, turns out he’s awesome for the economy.

Of course foreign buyers influence major markets. But they do not set prices. We do that. – Garth

#18 Reality is stark on 03.21.19 at 6:05 pm

Taxes will set all of us free.
There is no problem in Canadian society that a tax cannot solve.
Incentive is a mean word in Canadian parlance.
As the dollar declines one by one the people will come to their senses and begin to ask themselves what happened. Right now people are focussed on irrational ideas of justice and fairness which will bankrupt the nation so that the future majority have nothing.
Mediocrity is insidious and if there are two words that define Canadians to the rest of the world they are “nice” and “mediocre”.
Try getting a date with those credentials. Why no takers? Because there is no future with a person like that.
There is no future for a country like that either.

#19 Alberta Boy on 03.21.19 at 6:24 pm

Thanks for the post. I have been increasingly disturbed by the radicalization of the alt-left. They have become as intolerant, insensitive and arrogant as anything the right has produced. Universities, art galleries and Starbucks have become increasingly dangerous places to share an honest opinion. God help us.

#20 Sail away on 03.21.19 at 6:24 pm

#2 Raging Ranter on 03.21.19 at 4:52 pm
Poor Jake seems trigggered by democracy. Oh wait, I mean populism. Nassim Taleb identifies the fine line between populism and democracy according to people like Jake as follows: When people vote like you, it’s democracy. When people vote differently than you, it’s populism.

—————————–

Interesting you mention the financially-focused philosopher Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

He’s definitely not a follower of Garth’s balanced fund-type portfolio, as he’s made insane returns by banking on impossible to foresee improbable black swan events.

Taleb’s procedure is to stay very safe with 90% of the portfolio in fixed assets, and buy out-of-the-money options with the other 10%, then continually lose money until the unforeseeable and improbable event occurs, markets divebomb and his holdings skyrocket.

Not many people have the patience to continually lose cash with no way to predict when or if the change will come. And, of course, your savings could drain away to nothing before it happens.

#21 Andrew on 03.21.19 at 6:25 pm

Let me introduce you to bitcoin. Your non sovereign store of value wealth insurance. A 1% allocation to rest easy against all the fears Garth lays out so eloquently. This is not financial advice, do your own research first.

#22 Leo Trollstoy on 03.21.19 at 6:26 pm

Snowflake millenials cry a lot

#23 Boris on 03.21.19 at 6:26 pm

DELETED

#24 Not 1st on 03.21.19 at 6:26 pm

The govt fell this afternoon and the speaker apparently blocked it. Canada is in deeply sorry shape.

#25 Linda on 03.21.19 at 6:42 pm

Garth, the difficulty with barbarians of any stripe is that they like to loot & pillage. As you correctly point out, the world changes faster than we humans can react these days. What if ‘the barbarians’ enact laws to loot & pillage those who did invest wisely & used the balanced, diversified portfolio strategy? Sure, it would totally kill the ‘golden goose’ & be epic stupidity, but that goose would still be cooked.

#26 PastThePeak on 03.21.19 at 6:45 pm

If Jake wants to see part of the problem, he only needs to look in the mirror. Calling anyone that has a thought different than his “barbarians”…

Trudeau and Wynne are saints, but Ford and Scheer are the devil incarnate. Wow, Jake, I cant imagine why the country is getting ever more divisive…

#27 backmarker on 03.21.19 at 6:45 pm

Crossbordershopper, Do you mind sharing how you went to the US. Work permit or purchase a business?

Thank you

#28 Figure it Out on 03.21.19 at 6:46 pm

“Look at what an investor with a balanced and diversified portfolio (60/40) has experienced: so far in 2019 the US market is up 12% and the Canadian one almost 13%.”

Umm…

I’m up 19.4% off the December lows, at an all time high. Are your figures for a balanced portfolio typical of your clients, or for one asset?

#29 Victor Y on 03.21.19 at 6:46 pm

“he belief foreign money pumps Vancouver real estate.”

At least foreign money started the bubble, that is the fact well known here in Vancouver. why deny for the denial?

#30 just a dude on 03.21.19 at 6:48 pm

Garth, great post.

I especially appreciated your comments regarding change, how nothing is really new and how human nature tends to make us think that our circumstances are somehow unique. All one has to do is read a few good history books to truly appreciate the wisdom in these words.

Thank you.

#31 Mike on 03.21.19 at 6:49 pm

.

BRING BACK CRISTY CLARK !!!

We will want drug money laundering and our HELOCs back.

#32 Smartalox on 03.21.19 at 6:52 pm

The CPC is attempting populist appeal by using divisive rhetoric. By not only complaining loudly about how the government is traumatizing ‘the (read OUR) people’, they draw some to their side, but by unashamedly using tactics that many find unjustified and hypocritical, they drive others away – polarizing the debate, and turning trivial issues into lightning rods. Once they’re divided into us and them, the electorate is much more likely to “support your side” on issues where their true opinion might be neutral, either out of loyalty, or fear of being rejected by the group.

This is not a new strategy in mainstream politics, but social media has facilitated the process, making the divisions easier to detect and exploit.

It’s the preferred tactic of extremist groups, which is why, when populist tactics are adopted by the mainstream, there’s an immediate affiliation – the “us versus them” approach feels the same, and fires the same neural pathways in like-minded people. The mainstream populists are thrilled by the positive response, and see strong candidates in those that are well versed in ‘us’ side of ‘us versus them’ arguments. The extremists are thrilled with the exposure, potential for new recruits, and the whiff of legitimacy. They form a naturally beneficial relationship.

Mainstream politicians may think that they can control unwelcome extremist affiliations by managing their messaging. This is usually when mainstream party veterans issue statements that start with “We will not tolerate…” or “we will reject…” but by then, the parasite has infected the host.

Eventually, the parasite weakens the host. Others, observing the symptoms, turn away, and withhold resources that the host may need in order to heal.

Sometimes, the host can somehow manage expel the parasite, and heal itself, but the scars can remain vivid in the memories of others for a very, very long time.

#33 Memo to Jake on 03.21.19 at 6:54 pm

I’ll be sure to stay away from your and your wife’s son.

#34 mitzerboyakaQueencitykidd on 03.21.19 at 6:55 pm

so old Lemmy Kilmister of Motor Head was on to something after all.

“You win some
you lose some its all the same to me.”

#35 tccontrarian on 03.21.19 at 6:55 pm

“First, Jake, let’s acknowledge humans love to think they live in unique times.”

History doesn’t necessarily repeat, but it rhymes – Mark Twain

//////////////////

“Second, none of this is new. People have coalesced into tribes throughout history.”

Nothing new under the Sun – Bible

///////////

“…trying to time markets is another fail. Especially now, in an era of rapid technological change, social media and high-frequency trading. By the time you learn important news, markets have already reacted. The best strategy if you have a proper portfolio is to do absolutely nothing. The three most volatile years of our lifetimes – 2008 through 2010 – proved that. Those who bailed in the middle of a storm took heavy losses. Those who ignored the noise lost nothing. And did the same thing not occur at the end of 2018 – the market massacre last Christmas?”
——————————————-

Now Garth, you knew I just HAD TO respond. What you say above is true for the vast majority – but not everyone.
Even your managers/coleagues openly explain the virtues of rebalancing, whenever ‘appropriate’, which IS a form of ‘timing’ (selling overvalued/overweighted holdings and vice-versa).
Yes, those that ‘bail in the middle of a storm’ get what they deserve: heavy losses. Since when does ignorance get rewarded?
This is not different from those Greater Fools who were/are buying RE at the top of the market! All part of knowing when to be a buyer, and when to be a seller – and when to be a Couch-Potato watching it all unfold as it should.

TCC

#36 Tiger of Winter on 03.21.19 at 7:04 pm

Political risk is very real.

#37 JD on 03.21.19 at 7:06 pm

This is one of the Omniscient’s more elegantly-worded entries which also attests to his poise. To make it perfect, would he mind removing ‘ed’ from ‘contented’ in ‘What do you need accomplished to live a contented life?’ Thie entry is too good not to be perfect.

On a different note, if there are any US citizens among the readers here (with Canadian citizenship or merely residency), I’d love to hear from you on your experiences with ETFs. With IRS’s recent filing requirements which have made computation too cumbersome, are you folks filling your portfolios with ETFs nevertheless? Anything more than 3-5 ETFs in a portfolio would make the life of a transborder accountant very difficult. Given that, how are you finding a balance? I’d appreciate it if anybody cares to share their experience with this.

#38 ImGonnaBeSick on 03.21.19 at 7:07 pm

https://www.advisor.ca/tax/tax-news/government-targets-certain-investment-funds-that-use-forward-contracts/

I swear Morneau is personally targeting me with his tax changes every year… Literally just moved all my corporate retained earnings to Horizons ETFs HBB, HXT, HXS.U and HXDM after the last attack on retained earnings… Really hoping these guys lose in October…

#39 Re-Cowtown on 03.21.19 at 7:20 pm

And yet it’s likely millions of people will be on the move as the climate does alter. (Lefties say it’s anthropogenic. Cons say that’s crap.)

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

The fundamental tell that “Climate Change” is political term engineered to deceive are the words themselves. They are zen-like and so ambiguous and you can read anything into them that you want:

Weather is hot? Climate change

Cold? Climate Change

Rainy? Climate Change

Snowy? Climate Change

Hurricanes? Climate Change

No Hurricanes? Climate Change

and on and on…..

When they called it Catastrophic Man Made Global Warming at least the words matched the idea. The big problem was the 30 year climate pattern didn’t match the words so they had to come up with a name that could fit anything. Very deceptive when you’re unwilling to call something what it is.

As to climate refugees, we’ve had a mass exodus of them for decades. We call them Snowbirds. They leave the cold and go somewhere warm. Not the other way around. No one dreams of retiring in Tuk.

People fleeing countries for climate reasons is a bunch of crap. They flee because their rulers point guns at them…. their Socialist rulers. The Climate issue is fake news.

Anyone please name a single country with a functioning democracy that has experienced a mass exit of people. Anyone???? * crickets*

#40 Invictus on 03.21.19 at 7:25 pm

“Your enemy, Jake, is your own insecurity. Paralysis by analysis. Every day you spend worried about your future is one day less you have of it. Like barbarians, paper losses and gains come and go.

Time just goes.”

Goosebumps all over my body. It felt like backhand slap in the middle of a daydream.

Bravo Mr. Turner.

#41 EB on 03.21.19 at 7:28 pm

“Fear” and “Hate” both make me squirm since they have become words used to shut down discussion. Not that there isn’t actual hate out there which should be avoided, but it seems hard to resist the temptation to use them indiscriminately since they’re so effective in propping yourself up on a moral soapbox. All the same, these words regularly poison the dialog and actually worsen polarization since actual concerns are simply made unspeakable.

#42 Howard on 03.21.19 at 7:30 pm

How come nobody calls Turdeau’s legal pot a form of populism?

#43 Mr White on 03.21.19 at 7:31 pm

What level of U.S. Index Funds, for example the entire S&P 500 whole index should I have in my RRSP fund. Assuming they are traded on the TSX and not hedged to the C$

#44 X Factor for Brexit on 03.21.19 at 7:33 pm

DELETED

#45 life's good. on 03.21.19 at 7:45 pm

What a fantastic day today, sun was shinin’, lifes good.
crusty buggers on here probably didn’t even notice.

#46 45north on 03.21.19 at 7:45 pm

Risks are mounting that the other guys might take over and wreck everything.

risks are mounting the other guys might take over the newspapers.

Stuart Thomson: The government is pledging nearly $600 million over the next five years to help news organizations struggling to adapt to a digital age that has disrupted traditional business models.

https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/600m-in-federal-funding-for-media-a-turning-point-in-the-plight-of-newspapers-in-canada

Andrew Coyne: How independent will the panel be? How will its members be chosen, and by whom? If previous such exercises, for example the Senate selection model, are any guide, they will not be partisan Liberals, as such — just reliably progressive in outlook. Of course they will be. For they will have already selected themselves: not just by their enthusiasm for the idea of a government body picking which news organizations live or die, but by the firm conviction that they are just the sort of person who ought to be a member of that body.

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/andrew-coyne-its-when-you-read-details-of-media-bailout-that-the-chill-sets-in?video_autoplay=true

The panel to select news organizations reminds me of the National Steering Committee on Financial Literacy: I’ll bet you didn’t know we have a national Financial Literacy Leader. Well, we do. Her name is Jane Rooney and she’s currently seeking “influential individuals” to join the National Steering Committee on Financial Literacy. To be appointed you must be taking action “to strengthen the knowledge, skills and confidence of Canadians to make responsible financial decisions.”

I submitted an application but Jane wrote me back and told me I didn’t make the cut.

https://www.greaterfool.ca/2016/06/21/the-canada-pittance-plan/#comment-455385

#47 espressobob on 03.21.19 at 7:54 pm

One thing you learn over a long period of time, as a retail investor is the inability to time Mr. Market. Doesn’t work.

Cover all the bases and wait patiently to see where the ball goes. Better known as diversification.

Giving up control is a better way to gain control through rebalancing. That works.

#48 expat on 03.21.19 at 7:54 pm

#32 Smartalox says the Conservatives are extremist.

Have you not read everyone here trying to explain to your type that anyone who you disagree with is a barbarian, populist or extremist.

It’s called politics and democracy.
Its the CPC’s job to do what they are doing.

Your thoughts are exactly why “extremism” as you call it is required.

The “Normal” tribe is pissed off at the Liberals. So your use of normal mainstream politicians for Liberals is kinda silly.

Liberals are no longer mainstream. In fact they have lost the narrative.

The “normal” tribe is itching for October

#49 mike from mtl on 03.21.19 at 7:58 pm

I’m certainly no ‘active trader’ but when the bond market is not buying into future ‘expansion’ and rate increases you have to listen.

With experience, certain assets aren’t the right time to invest – Canadian Preferreds. 1,3,5 yr total return is terrible and when a sell off happens and you count on rebalancing against something that drops along with commons. Should have bought PFF or a simple GIC. Canadian Preferreds are going this year, claim the capital loss which is a bonus.

Mid-Long term prospects of normal (5%) rates are basically out of the question. That was true for the long of of bonds last year as is today.

Big deal, so we are basically gotten back to where we were last year no small part to the Fed going full-on dovish. All time highs are for sure setting off alarms, at least to me.

#50 Baja Peninsula on 03.21.19 at 8:03 pm

#17 the ryguy – The friend you met is out of luck in Cabo or anywhere else on the Baja Peninsula, because foreigners are forbidden to buy property within the exclusion zone. This goes from 31.05 miles within the ocean, and 62 miles from the borders. Anything else has no real future investment value. He might be able to do a deal in trust, whereby the deed is held by a bank, with a land lease type of arrangement.

#51 Daniel Bouchard on 03.21.19 at 8:07 pm

What it feels to me is the pernicious beginnings of the start of a long tedious fall of a civilization, ours, slowly crumbling under it’s own weight and outside influences , Just like most other antique civilizations, Roman, Greek, Roman etc etc. The idea of the stock market has been around since the 1600’s and in full bloom since the early 1900’s. The history of humans has been much longer. Wish I could live long enough to see the outcome.

#52 Tony on 03.21.19 at 8:08 pm

Re: #3 SoggyShorts on 03.21.19 at 4:59 pm

I’m buying TVIX tomorrow at the 4pm close and holding until April 4th. The only source of buying this year has been buybacks and the blackout hits around the end of March. First quarter profit taking should kick in this Monday. A double whammy for stocks starting this Monday.

#53 Re-Cowtown on 03.21.19 at 8:17 pm

#19 Alberta Boy on 03.21.19 at 6:24 pm
Thanks for the post. I have been increasingly disturbed by the radicalization of the alt-left. They have become as intolerant, insensitive and arrogant as anything the right has produced. Universities, art galleries and Starbucks have become increasingly dangerous places to share an honest opinion. God help us.

___________________________________________

Recently sat down to read a copy of the “Georgia Straight” the alt-alt-alt left newspaper in Vancouver. It’s usually good for harmless chuckle with all the pro-weed, alternate lifestyle, anti-capitalist rants and Trump Derangement Syndrome.

This time not so funny though. They were advertising an art exhibit at a local museum dedicated to promoting hate. “Evil White Men II – a profile in hatred” or something to that effect.

The wording of the advertisement made it abundantly clear that the promoters felt that white men were the root of all of society’s ills. I guess the Evil White Men I was such a hit they went all in for a sequel.

Not sure why that isn’t considered promoting hatred and a violation of human rights.

Maybe the people who run that art gallery need to be reported to the Human Rights Commission. Lord knows they have no tolerance or shame. If a guy dug into it it wouldn’t surprise me if the hate exhibit was funded by BC taxpayers.

And that’s just one of the reasons that Ex-Cowtown became Re-Cowtown and abandoned the Left Coast. You can’t reason with ignorance and intolerance, so it’s best to get out of the way, do your small part to cut off their source of funds and let their messed up views implode around their ears.

#54 espressobob on 03.21.19 at 8:32 pm

Prefs are an asset class some of us own with the profit taken from rebalancing. House money.

Totally works for income investors. All that yield never gets old.

#55 not 1st on 03.21.19 at 8:34 pm

And for another ugly side to our country. if the Libs cant change the laws or strong arm the AG to get their friends at SNC off, well jut go to the next best idea. Use Ab equalization money to save the company.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/quebec-tables-fifth-straight-balanced-budget-with-leftover-billions-from-liberals-1.1232745

Our country is a disgusting corrupt banana republic.

#56 Mean Gene on 03.21.19 at 8:39 pm

Worry about what you can control, everything else is out of your hands… ignore it, life is too short.

#57 Yitzhak Rabin on 03.21.19 at 8:44 pm

“So one principle that needs to be embraced is that markets always rise in the long run. ”

On a real, inflation-adjusted basis this is not even close to true. Even nominally, in cases like Japan where the Nikkei is only now back to 1987 levels, it doesn’t always hold up. The Dow Jones from 1965-1981 also fell nominally, while the currency-value destruction of inflation further rubbed salt in the wound.

Lance Roberts at RealInvestmentAdvice has an article this week showing how, despite your claims, timing of investment is one of the most important factors:

https://realinvestmentadvice.com/after-two-of-the-greatest-bull-markets-in-u-s-history-why-are-boomers-so-broke/

We are approaching the Keynesian end-game now. The capitulation of the Fed, after some tiny rate hikes and minor balance sheet reductions, sets the stage for another round of QE coming up soon.

Stagflation is in the pipeline. Possibly good nominally for some assets. Horrible for the middle-class and economy as a whole.

#58 ShawnG in TO on 03.21.19 at 8:53 pm

#1 Smoking Man on 03.21.19 at 4:52 pm
> …
> Canadian politics use to boring. Not anymore.

with a drama teacher at the helm what can you expect?

#59 Post on 03.21.19 at 9:00 pm

I was sure you were going to write about the Fitch warning to Canada’s AAA credit rating???

#60 brian1 on 03.21.19 at 9:03 pm

There is more evidence of Sasquatch than there is of Collusion.

#61 Re 41EB on 03.21.19 at 9:07 pm

Brilliant.
I don’t think this Imbecile even understood that.
Thank you poster.

#62 The Real Mark on 03.21.19 at 9:26 pm

“Stagflation is in the pipeline. “

Where does the ‘flation’ part of stagflation come from? Inflationary pressures in the Canadian economy are basically dead. There’s severe overcapacity in almost all sectors of the economy. Consumers are drowning in credit. It sure smells like good old fashioned, 1930s-like deflation to me, where there’s an abundance of goods and services, but nobody has money to buy them. Rather than stagflation, where there’s legitimately a shortage of supply and too much money chasing such.

If it were going to be stagflation, certainly the bond market doesn’t agree. Basically the GoC curve is trading as though the BoC is going to go back to zero or even try their hand at negative rates over the next number of years. Poloz appears to be seriously behind the curve.

#63 SF on 03.21.19 at 9:41 pm

I usually agree with you Garth, but not the line about anthropogenic climate change: it’s not left vs right, it’s international science vs a vocal part of the “right”. Plenty of conservatives accept the science and are supportive of action.

And please have a look at comment #33 – it’s an insulting meme that adds nothing to the dialogue. Jake opinions should be discussed – his wife’s marital fidelity not so much.

#64 dr talc on 03.21.19 at 9:52 pm

after 8 years of H at the helm,
we have million new Canadians who will NEVER vote Con. Left-right ? coke-Pepsi?

#65 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.21.19 at 9:56 pm

@#42 Howard
“How come nobody calls Turdeau’s legal pot a form of populism?”
+++++
Ummmm
The politically correct term is : potulism

#66 Tim on 03.21.19 at 9:59 pm

#57 Yitzhak Rabin on 03.21.19 at 8:44 pm

I had a look at the RealInvestmentAdvice site and the figures there are for a 100% equity (SP500) portfolio with no new money ever coming in and no rebalancing, since the portfolio has no fixed income.

For a more realistic portfolio, see:

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/04/worst-5050-stockbond-real-returns/

This is for a 50% S&P equity + 10 Year US Treasury portfolio, rebalanced annually, showing the worst 10 year periods of nominal and real annualized returns since 1926.

Out of the 10 worst ten year periods, only three of these periods had negative real returns, with the worst 1964-1974 at -2.5% annualized real return.

So, out of the last hundred or so years, three of them delivered negative real returns for the next ten years if you had the portfolio above. The next seven worst 10 year periods were positive, most by more than what a cash savings account would have provided.

Even the Nikkei index has a positive annualized total real return of 3.9% per year from 1970 to 2018 — see https://dqydj.com/nikkei-return-calculator-dividend-reinvestment/

#67 AK on 03.21.19 at 10:10 pm

“Poor Jake. He sees barbarians at the gate.”
=====================================

If Bernie Sanders or AOC somehow get elected, Barbarians will become a reality. Jake should be careful what he wishes for.

#68 Re-Cowtown on 03.21.19 at 10:15 pm

#63 SF on 03.21.19 at 9:41 pm
I usually agree with you Garth, but not the line about anthropogenic climate change: it’s not left vs right, it’s international science vs a vocal part of the “right”. Plenty of conservatives accept the science and are supportive of action.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

As soon as you resort to a consensus to bolster your argument about science you lose. Using consensus as an argument only demonstrates that whatever prof you’re parroting doesn’t understand science either.

Science cares not about consensus; only politicians do.

Some simple examples are below:

If consensus meant anything in geology then finding a diamond mine would be easy; we’d all just have a vote on where to build the mine.

If consensus applied to medicine we could vote on the cure for cancer.

If consensus applied to physics we could vote on gravity.

Obviously all of the above are silly. And the reason they’re all silly is because consensus means nothing in science.

#69 AK on 03.21.19 at 10:16 pm

#14 Sideshow Rob on 03.21.19 at 5:45 pm
“Memo to Jake:
Turn off CNN forever”
=====================================

Add MSNBC as well to the list.

#70 soon? on 03.21.19 at 10:31 pm

> incredibly incompetent governance in the US, UK, and
> possibly soon here too

Jake doesn’t think we have incompetent governance already?
Now I’m scared.

#71 Westcdn Whining Grape on 03.21.19 at 10:36 pm

I don’t talk a lot about my father. I always took my mother’s side because she had so much faith in me. But he loved me too. He was tough to please yet I remember him shedding tears over events in my life. He was and always be a powerful force in my soul though we fought hard but he was fair (something many barflies will disagree) – I miss them both. I will not let them down.

True I have many dead soldiers in my portfolio yet I can cash them later. I have more winners than losers. It seems I send money to die with pharmaceuticals and mining companies. I keep a brave face. Fortunately, a few winners more than cover losers.

I have been criticized for being a yield chaser (by an unnamed host) but I do my homework. I wish it would always work out well but I will not surrender trying to pick the best. Real estate does not warm my heart.

#72 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.21.19 at 10:37 pm

Another day another “incident” in the South China Sea…

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-vietnam-southchinasea/vietnam-protests-to-china-over-south-china-sea-boat-sinking-idUSKCN1R307O

Only a matter of time before the US Navy and the Chinese Navy slug it out in a “Sea” that China claims as “theirs”.

Tidal Reefs that become man made Islands…. “proving” sovereignty.

China’s economy slowing down…….
Chinese Leaders needing something, anything, to get the 1.3 billion “comrades” trading their Gucci watches for disease free pork….

http://www.asianews.it/news-en/Beijing,-almost-a-million-pigs-killed-in-African-swine-fever-outbreak-45992.html

Jingoistic propaganda ramping up…..

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-taiwan-china/taiwan-president-to-visit-hawaii-amid-china-pressure-idUSKCN1R2083

Pork Bellies…..dats where da money’s at………

#73 BigAl (Original) on 03.21.19 at 10:42 pm

Let’s just let all the business owners run the entire country. They would never ever even think of using the keys to the treasury and unlimited taxation (revenue) powers to their personal advantage, nor the absolute power to write all the laws. When I think back to all my wonderful transactions and contracts I’ve had with telecoms, mechanics, tow truck companies, car dealers, realty brokers, wealth advisors I have to stop myself from welling up with the most thankful of tears. Give them the keys to the treasury I say and stand back and brace for the tsunami of prosperity that will lift all the boats of us broken and scattered peons.

#74 Smartalox on 03.21.19 at 10:50 pm

@Expat #48:
I think that you misread my post. I was saying that the Conservative Party is using tactics that are similar to those used by extremist groups to stoke anger and discontent, with myths of ‘us versus theme’ rhetoric, to gain popular support. The problem is that by using tactics and arguments that are familiar to extremist groups, they draw members of those groups to them. At that point, the extremists, who are used to stating their views loudly and frequently, drown out more moderate voices. In this way, the extremists can end up hijacking the party platform, brand, legacy, and Treasury.

I’m not saying that the Conservatives are there yet, but they sure haven’t said or done anything to win my consideration, let alone my vote, at this point.

I’m not happy with much in Trudeau’s last budget, and I wish that he’d build that pipeline, and a couple more for good measure. I also wish that I could save $10k per year in my TFSA, but it’s okay because I dump the extra into my RRSP instead, and pay less in tax now than I did in 2015, when I earned about 1/3rd less. I don’t care about the gender balance in cabinet.

But all I’ve heard from the Opposition has been how the government is all wrong, and how angry every member of the opposition is about everything. Not a word about what, or how they’ll get do better. I’d really like to know what their platform is, but all I’ve heard from the party and their supporters are complaints about women and minorities that doesn’t appeal to me.

#75 Madcat on 03.21.19 at 11:47 pm

But what if we are at the peak a massive global credit bubble? How should one invest if they I think that deflation is on the horizon?

#76 PeterfromCalgary on 03.21.19 at 11:50 pm

Trudeau has turned Canada into a failed state run by a corrupt political hack who ignores the law whenever it suits him. Even the overly diplomatic OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) has firmly expressed its concern. For the good of the country he must resign!

#77 DON on 03.21.19 at 11:51 pm

#16 Penny Henny on 03.21.19 at 5:51 pm

“1.67% is the market telling you the next interest rate move will be down”

https://business.financialpost.com/investing/canadian-bonds-due-in-more-than-a-decade-yielding-less-than-cash

*******************
So the economy is about to suck worse than expected.

With Peak prices
With Peak household debts
With Peak home ownership
With Peak Corporate and Government debt (all levels)
Peak income – lol

Triple YIKES!

#78 Gordon on 03.21.19 at 11:56 pm

Canadian bonds yield less than zero.

https://business.financialpost.com/investing/canadian-bonds-due-in-more-than-a-decade-yielding-less-than-cash

Canada’s AAA rating at extreme risk says Fitch. Moroneau is a liar to paraphrase the report. But we already knew that.

Many of Canada’s superstar stocks have popped 20+% off December lows, now breaking out of all time highs, the best sign, signals big jumps ahead.

Barbarians are already in charge. Trudeau has laid waste to the Canadian economy. We need to kick the barbarians out. Funny how Jake only begrudgingly admits that Trudeau is a gross incompetent while lumping him in with incompetence and globalists elsewhere. Revolution is in the air. I smell opportunity. Bye bye buy buy buy! When the Trudeaus, the Junkers , the Merkel , the Macrons and the slimy drippings of Obama are finally burned away with an acid wash of rationality, the market will blast off. OK, I’m feeling juiced and charitable. The energy space is sniffing the blood of Notley and Trudeau, good companies are on sale but creeping up quickly. Fortune favour a the bold. My wife tells me to be fearless given the facts presented, by the grace of God go I.

#79 DON on 03.22.19 at 12:11 am

https://www.ft.com/content/40a2eae4-4b2b-11e9-8b7f-d49067e0f50d

The Big Short’s Steve Eisman raises bets against Canadian banks

(May need a subscription to read the full article)

He expects it to pay of in the near future. Something to monitor for sure.

Separate topic: Forbes: China to invest 3 trillion in Green technologies. Expected to decrease demand in oil. They are already using electric bus fleets.

As Garth states change is constant.

Makes one wonder how, what, where, when, who will partake in the next War.

#80 Nonplused on 03.22.19 at 12:47 am

On perceptions:

So let’s say (and I am borrowing from Scott Adams) there are 2 people in a room, and one is sure he sees a pink elephant, but the other one doesn’t see it. What if there are 3 people in the room, and 2 are sure there is a pink elephant there but the other doesn’t see it. Who is right? It’s obviously the person who doesn’t see it. This is the case with all delusions. The person or people that don’t see it are probably correct, it isn’t there.

The idea that the Liberals or Conservatives are going to ruin the country all at once is probably a delusion, because many people don’t see it, even if they have their own delusions the other way. Same as Trump Derangement Syndrome. He’s been in office 2+ years and so far nothing bad has happened. No 9/11, no new war, no economic collapse, no gutting of the health care system. All he seems to be sure about is that he wants a wall. But the “Never Trump” people think that the world is ending. It isn’t. And half the population can’t see it.

I happen to think the Notely is about the worst thing that’s happened to Alberta in a long time, and Trudeau likewise the worst thing that’s happened to Canada. But I have to admit, they haven’t done any permanent damage that the next government can’t quickly undo. Even the silly “shared equity” idea can be shut down before it even comes into effect. Carbon taxes in Alberta can be eliminated with the with the stroke of a pen. The world did not end.

So calm down people. What you think you see, if other people don’t see it, is probably a figment of your imagination and a whole lot of social media programming.

There are Barbarians in the world, but it is probably not your neighbor with the MAGA hat.

#81 SoggyShorts on 03.22.19 at 1:23 am

#68 Re-Cowtown on 03.21.19 at 10:15 pm
As soon as you resort to a consensus to bolster your argument about science you lose.

**************************************
You couldn’t be more wrong. A consensus means everything in science.
1. You take a guess at something(a hypothesis)
2. You try to prove your guess right or wrong
3. Other scientists independently confirm your results.

If all scientists get the same result they agree and form a…consensus.

No matter how much of step 1 and 2 you do it’s meaningless unless it can be repeatedly proven by others. Doing a study is good, but ultimately only peer-reviewed studies are worth anything.

#82 Nonplused on 03.22.19 at 1:26 am

On Socialism:

This one is going to take me some time to flesh out, so I will only give a brief outline of this idea that I’ve been working on today.

All wealthy countries evolve some measure of socialism, but they do so organically and not by dictate of the government. You cannot design such a complicated system by force. All you will do is wreck whatever system was in place.

Good examples of evolving socialism starts with the family. Parents feed their kids and when possible help them out with other things even when they become millennial basement dwellers. I would say all functional families are to some extent micro-socialist organisations.

Countries can evolve organically towards socialism, as Canada and say Norway have. We have “free” public education, cheap post secondary education, cheap if not free health care, public roads, utilities police, fire, etc. It’s all working so it seems and it all evolved organically with the government only playing a role as necessary when something needs to be administered at the municipal/provincal/national level.

But now we have ideas like Universal Basic Income and the Green New Deal. These ideas cannot be implemented quickly because they are poison to other parts of the organically developed social order and will kill the host.

For example, for today, let’s take one good example of organically developed socialism: The ski hill. Every winter ski hills across the nation employ tons of young people to run the lifts, groom the snow, cook the burgers, teach lessons, and do ski patrol. These young people want to be there because that’s where the party is. But it is entirely unnecessary from any reasonable point of view. If every ski hill in the country shut down I doubt we’d really miss them. So what you have is people who have enough money to ski (and it takes a lot) voluntarily employing people that don’t have enough money to do anything and now everybody gets to ski. (Most ski hills let their employees ski for free when they aren’t working).

But introduce UBI, and the ski hill workers have no reason to work unless wages for lifties go way up. The taxes required to sustain it mean that a lot less people can afford to ski, especially since now wages for lifties have gone way up. So now you end at a situation where nobody can afford to ski because they pay too much in taxes and the lift tickets are too damn expensive, and the ski hills can’t hire because everyone is on UBI and thus has no incentive to work, even at a fun place like a ski hill.

UBI is probably coming as the computers take over more and more jobs. But it has to always be a subsistence level of existence or people just won’t work. The “organic” form of socialism that is alive and well in society works much better. Piano teachers, dog walkers, home cleaning services, message therapists, fast food workers, bartenders, personal trainers, and on and on are all examples of organic socialism that the government probably cannot organize and will kill if socialism goes too far. These jobs are not necessary. If they are already getting all the money they need from the government, and their customers are all broke due to excessive taxation, how can these ventures survive? They won’t.

And it gets even worse when socialism goes so far as to disincentivise primary industry. Why farm if it isn’t worth the risk and you can just collect UBI? Why drill for oil? Why build houses? Why fix cars? Why fix toilets?

Socialism is a lot like alcohol; in moderation it is good for the spirit, in excess it destroys you.

#83 Smoking Man on 03.22.19 at 1:30 am

DELETED

#84 TruthOrConsequences on 03.22.19 at 1:43 am

#38 ImGonnaBeSick on 03.21.19 at 7:07 pm

Thanks for letting me know about the pending changes. I was thinking about “stocking” up on these. I used to own a truckload of them. If you want to be able to continue investing with these type of funds without the tax hit, send some of your dollars here.

https://www.withpierre.ca/donate?utm_campaign=letjodyspeakpetiton_ask1&utm_medium=email&utm_source=apcommunications

You will receive a huge deduction next year plus the satisfaction to know that you stopped the banana republic government from flourishing at your expense.

#85 Marcus on 03.22.19 at 1:53 am

You know what the Magic 8 Ball says? ………… Nationalism wins over Globalism. It was a good try by the Anglo European Banking Cartel but they took a bite that was way too big for their mouth. Invest accordingly.

#86 Oh Puhleez on 03.22.19 at 2:26 am

Ace Goodheart on 03.19.19 at 9:28 pm

Re: US versus Canada tax rate difference:

I had this same conversation with a group of full time staff the last time we were down in Disneyland.

We were talking about how much higher our taxes are in Canada.

The full time Disneylanders did not agree.

[A Bunch Of Misinformation]

I left the conversation both better informed and also quite chastened. Turns out our Canadian system isn’t really that bad and we actually likely pay less tax than do Americans if you include health insurance.

Who knew?

————-

Dear Ace,

You walked away not “better informed” but yes, “quite chastened”. As a good Canadian should be – always. :)

Please research the “facts” that the Disneylanders told you. You will find them to be untrue. For example, full-time employees in the US either commonly get medical coverage or can purchase it under Obama Care. Few employers who don’t provide it are in the business of selling it to employees and deducting for it (what would be in it for them other than headache?).

Also, do you think generics are a well kept secret in Canada while Americans stupidly pay for the patented version that costs “thousands of times the price of their generic equivalents in Canadian pharmacies”? Do you really believe that? Did you research it?

Better yet, feel better about yourself as compared to Americans. It’s a time honoured Candian tradition to compare ourselves to the US only with the goal of concluding that it is better here. If nations had penises, I know which ones would invest in (ahem) … enlargement technologies.

When done, tell me “If you don’t like it, leave. We’ll be better off without cry babies like you”. MF and Baloney Sandwich and The Real Kip will cheer from the sidelines. MF might even “lol”.

#87 Figure it Out on 03.22.19 at 5:29 am

“So embrace another principal”

YO, GARTH!

This is a super-peeve of mine. A ‘principle’ is a firmly held belief. A ‘principal’ is an owner of a firm, or somebody in a transaction who isn’t an agent.

Or at least, that’s how it used to be. Misuse has been so widespread recently that I won’t be surprised if the dictionaries just shrug to common usage, say “whatevs” and update their books to obliterate the difference. Please don’t encourage them.

Usage Nazi #24601 signing off…

Preach to the auto-speller function. – Garth

#88 Gordon on 03.22.19 at 5:37 am

#72 Crowded. Having been into the Spratley Group, South China Sea, I can tell you what China has done there is a crime against nature. The reason they got away with it is laziness on behalf of world eco warriors , they stay in expensive hotels when they’re not flying over the oil sands, and cowardice facing down the Chinese. Obama is a coward, Trudeau a coward, the Chinese fleet, is a ten ship joke.

The islands were really amazing, much more so than the Great Barrier Reef, shifting with tide, atolls and reefs, pristine. My buddies and I spent weeks sailing out there from Manila , a tough place to get to, but that’s was it was a pristine wonder. Our green warriors don’t want to be away from the free drugs and luxury they enjoy while in Vancouver.

#89 Steven Rowlandson on 03.22.19 at 7:17 am

The mark of a barbarian is that they find it easier and more preferrable to take even by force if need be than to put in the effort to earn or make something.

On another topic: I found the following at BNN

ECONOMICS
Money manager sees loonie testing 62-cent low amid slowing economy
Loonie 6:58
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/money-manager-sees-loonie-testing-62-cent-low-amid-slowing-economy-1.1230447

The Canadian dollar may sink back to its record low of 62 U.S. cents (C$1.61) as the country retrenches from a consumer-spending boom into the face of a slowing global economy, said David Wolf at Fidelity Investments.

#90 Y. Knott on 03.22.19 at 7:35 am

#2 Raging Ranter on 03.21.19 at 4:52 pm
Poor Jake seems trigggered by democracy. Oh wait, I mean populism. Nassim Taleb identifies the fine line between populism and democracy according to people like Jake as follows: When people vote like you, it’s democracy. When people vote differently than you, it’s populism.

Charles Krauthammer nailed it, as he was wont to do: “To understand the workings of American politics, you have to understand this fundamental law: Conservatives think Liberals are stupid. Liberals think Conservatives are evil.”

What more need be said?

#91 Figure it Out on 03.22.19 at 7:43 am

How civil wars start…

The other day, Andrew Scheer described the Liberal budget as “illegitimate.”

That was completely wrong. Words matter. The government has the right and the duty to table an annual budget, and this one wasn’t at all unorthodox.

I was just as shocked (AND surprised) when the US senate refused to consider Obama’s nomination for the supreme court vacancy. It would have been within its rights to vote down the nominee, but its refusal to even consider the question was, IMHO, a grave breach. What was its plan should Clinton have won the election and nominated a less moderate candidate?

It doesn’t matter whether moderates and well educated people know your words are complete bullshit unsupported by law and tradition. Those aren’t the ones who fire the first shot.

#92 after communism on 03.22.19 at 8:09 am

mass immigration=tribalism+proximity

Tribalism is true.

Global rulers will coalesce as a unique tribe over time. Twelve tribes formed a nation per Exodus.

#93 Basil Fawlty on 03.22.19 at 8:11 am

Should one adjust investment asset allocations based on the inverted yield curve in the US?

#94 maxx on 03.22.19 at 8:18 am

@ #4

With a bit of stamina and ability to mess with their heads, overwhelmingly most bullies can be turned inside-out, to reveal a beautiful colour – yellow. “Yella”.
They’re frightened little weenies, and often more afraid than the average Joe. $hit scared.

Bullying, or offence is their painfully transparent defence and their confidence only comes from having succeeded enough times in abusing people and getting away with it. They quite often do it behind your back.

Yella.

If one can’t/won’t mess with them, report the A-holes.

Don’t let them damage your confidence – that damage impacts the bottom line.

#95 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.22.19 at 8:23 am

@#88 Gordon

Yep.
China flexing their new found economic and military muscles.
With all the diplomacy of a spoiled child in a sandbox.

Demanding “respect” and not realizing they are going to get anything but respect from their neighbours in the South China Sea if they keep pushing their claim to the entire region.
They care not one wit for the environment of the Sea if their own country’s polluted air, land and water is an example.
Its just another resource to be over fished, mined and searched for oil.
Everyone else be damned.

https://www.undercurrentnews.com/2019/02/08/china-fares-worst-on-new-illegal-fishing-index/

The South China Sea……paradise lost.

I think the world should send their nukes, missles, planes and ships to the country of Taiwan for free and then declare it a sovereign Nation.
Which it has been since 1949.

Then watch Chinese leaders blow a gasket because they’re “losing face” and go to war over essentially nothing.
But then again the leadership need an “enemy” to focus the population’s attention somewhere else other than their crappy lives in a polluted , overpopulated, communist country…..

#96 baloney Sandwitch on 03.22.19 at 8:24 am

Superb column today Garth. This goes into my archive to read when the view outside my window is gloomy.

#97 Tater on 03.22.19 at 8:29 am

#19 Alberta Boy on 03.21.19 at 6:24 pm
Thanks for the post. I have been increasingly disturbed by the radicalization of the alt-left. They have become as intolerant, insensitive and arrogant as anything the right has produced. Universities, art galleries and Starbucks have become increasingly dangerous places to share an honest opinion. God help us.
————————————————————–
Care to share one of those honest opinion you don’t feel you can say in public?

#98 Tater on 03.22.19 at 8:34 am

Widening gyre is going to make this tribal-politics aspect much worse in the future. Epsilon Theory has a nice series on it, first part here: https://www.epsilontheory.com/things-fall-apart-pt-1/

What does this mean for the US in 2020? Well, I’d look for the craziest Leftist candidate in the Democrats stable and bet on that person to be the nominee. So, Yang-Gang it is!

And if the Dems wimp out and put forward a centrist? Well its four more years of Trump.

The multi-party system in Canada means we aren’t as likely to swing from pole to pole, but it does mean more minority governments with a wider number of parties in parliament.

#99 IHCTD9 on 03.22.19 at 8:43 am

The overriding defence is simple. Be balanced, with safe assets and growth assets in the same portfolio. And be diversified, with ETFs rather than stocks, exposure to Canada the US and international markets, and multiple asset classes.
___

I’d also suggest a few acres of arable land, a chicken pen, a 12ga and a .308. Just in case Trumpocalypse dude turns out to be right.

You can gain an idea of what kind of trouble awaits you after SHTF below: :)

https://www.youtube.com/user/CanadianPrepper33/videos

#100 PastThePeak on 03.22.19 at 9:03 am

Made in Canada recession signs continue to grow. With a slowing global economy, there is nothing that can drive growth against the deliberate government assaults on multiple industries. Now the extreme over indebtedness of Canadian consumer begins to bite.

My portfolio is recession ready.

#101 Gordon on 03.22.19 at 9:12 am

https://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/lau-the-inconvenient-truth-about-the-carbon-tax-rebate

Trudeau’s enormous lies about the carbon tax explained.

#95 Crowded, on Taiwan, agree 100%. I watched in disgust as Prince Charles sailed out of Hong Kong Harbour aboard the Royal Yacht Brittania after handing 7 million free citizens over to the vicious dictatorship of China . …..as if it was simply honouring a real estate lease. The people of HK we’re in panic, they had British passports, only to find that Britain had no intention of honouring that as they had for millions of people from Bangladesh and Pakistan when politics ended their tenure where they’d once called home. Britain was forever shamed that day when they didn’t stand up for the rights of 7 million freedom loving Democratic people.

The Free world must stand against the ridiculous bellicosity of China paper tiger communist regime. The people of China would revolt if China was to attempt a serious war where it’s southern cities we’re carpet bombed by the Sixth Fleet. China took us for suckers when Obama was in office. Trump is another story.

#102 PastThePeak on 03.22.19 at 9:19 am

Perhaps I posted too soon. Might not be just Canada. Saw some morning headlines that show Germany and the EU are worsening too.

Heading into the end of calendar Q1, many companies will be in blackout period for stock buybacks until their earning announcements. We might see how solid the equity markets are without corp stock purchases.

To be clear, I agree with Garth in general about any timing of the markets. But I also believe in increasing one’s cash position at certain times when it seems like things are extremely frothy…and this has been one of those times.

If you are invested, stay invested. But if you have money to deploy, I would recommend (at this point in time and the market) to be selective and dollar cost average.

No one knows what the markets will do, but my view is that this coming correction/drop will not have a sharp V-shaped recovery like 2009. I expect a half “W” followed by a half “U” (the small middle of the w being a dead cat bounce as a result of extreme central bank stimulus, but it won’t work the same way this time).

#103 not 1st on 03.22.19 at 9:27 am

#74 Smartalox on 03.21.19 at 10:50 pm

Well how about first someone who runs the economy properly instead of running around like a fool navel gazing on meaningless social issues. Your social construct exists at the leisure of the economy. We have a bill of rights and a constitutions. Everyone has equal protection and equal opportunity. Equal outcomes is not possible without socialism backed by oppressive govt and like military force.

#104 CHERRY BLOSSOM on 03.22.19 at 9:52 am

YELLOW VESTS are available at Dollarama for $4.00

#105 Re-Cowtown on 03.22.19 at 9:57 am

#81 SoggyShorts on 03.22.19 at 1:23 am
#68 Re-Cowtown on 03.21.19 at 10:15 pm
As soon as you resort to a consensus to bolster your argument about science you lose.

**************************************
You couldn’t be more wrong. A consensus means everything in science.
1. You take a guess at something(a hypothesis)
2. You try to prove your guess right or wrong
3. Other scientists independently confirm your results.

If all scientists get the same result they agree and form a…consensus.

No matter how much of step 1 and 2 you do it’s meaningless unless it can be repeatedly proven by others. Doing a study is good, but ultimately only peer-reviewed studies are worth anything.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Wow. You just hit complete cognitive dissonance. I win. You’ve posted an excellent example of a word salad argument. Lots of words that sound impressive, but no logic to hold it together. In fact, I’ve never seen anyone so utterly destroy themselves in the same statement before. You completely make the case that consensus is irrelevant.

If results are repeatable and falsifiable, then consensus is meaningless. If it doesn’t matter who is doing the experiment, then the experimental results rule the day and the experimenters consensus for or against are meaningless.

All you’re trying to do is using word salad to slather on a messed up definition of “consensus” on top of the scientific method to try to steal some credibility from science. Complete BS, and I’m calling you on it.

As to peer review, none of Einstein’s papers were peer reviewed. If the science is solid, then peer review is also meaningless.

Peer review and consensus are the two most abused terms in science. As a practicing scientist, as soon as someone beaks off about consensus and peer review it is a massive red flag that they really don’t have anything to support their research, and what they have will probably fail the sniff test in very short order.

#106 Paul on 03.22.19 at 10:02 am

#91 Figure it Out on 03.22.19 at 7:43 am
How civil wars start…

The other day, Andrew Scheer described the Liberal budget as “illegitimate.”

That was completely wrong. Words matter. The government has the right and the duty to table an annual budget, and this one wasn’t at all unorthodox.
————————————————————————————————
Yes, right and duty to lie prior to the election balanced budget yada yada yada then tack on a 100 billion in debt.
Sure things can change but Justin didn’t even try! Spend more tax more and hope/pray to sell it.

#107 Remembrancer on 03.22.19 at 10:05 am

#98 Tater on 03.22.19 at 8:34 am
The multi-party system in Canada means we aren’t as likely to swing from pole to pole, but it does mean more minority governments with a wider number of parties in parliament.
———————————————————
On that topic, for discussion and debate…

Evidence suggests that Canada’s natural governing party is the Liberals who periodically collapse in public shame, usually resulting from the hubris and scandals of too long a mandate (vastly accelerated this time around, must be that internet effect thingee or something), resulting in periodic bouts of Conservatives who often try but ultimately can’t raise above regional gripes, protest politics and the more tawdry elements of the social conservative “base” to give the progressive fiscal conservatives time to clean things up without alienating the middle-of-the-road majority of Canadians who just want to live and let live i.e. longer-lived Conservative mandates come with more centralism usually. Stir and repeat…

Federal NDP and Greens are two sides of the same coin, proverbial dogs chasing cars that wouldn’t know what to do with one if they caught it, keeps the two main parties on their toes, though that’s a bit of whistling past the graveyard on my part there though…

That said, there was probably 6-8 candidates on my federal ballot last time if I remember correctly but I don’t think the Marxist-Leninists or Beer party are much of a risk to turn us into a parliamentary system that has an election every 6 months or has a coalition formed that regularly bows to an outlier one member party like some others I could mention…

#108 dharma bum on 03.22.19 at 10:10 am

Poor Jake. He sees barbarians at the gate. – Garth
——————————————————————–

Paranoia, the destroyer.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZD6bQ3DQSLA

Hmmm…was this song written about Jake?

“There’s a red under my bed, and there’s a little green man in my head.”

#109 Remembrancer on 03.22.19 at 10:14 am

#105 Re-Cowtown on 03.22.19 at 9:57 am
Peer review and consensus are the two most abused terms in science. As a practicing scientist, as soon as someone beaks off about consensus and peer review it is a massive red flag that they really don’t have anything to support their research, and what they have will probably fail the sniff test in very short order.
———————————————
Ahh, was that cold fusion paper rejected again?

Seriously though, for a practicing scientist accusing someone of cognitive dissonance, what pray tell is this “sniff test” you speak of which replaces the discredited peer review / repeatable results? You prefer how it makes you feel maybe?

#110 SoggyShorts on 03.22.19 at 10:17 am

#105 Re-Cowtown on 03.22.19 at 9:57 am

Just to clarify, you are saying that if 1 person proves something, that’s good enough. Just as good as if someone else verifies it?

I’m sure that anti-vaxxers agree with you.

#111 n1tro on 03.22.19 at 10:21 am

#81 SoggyShorts on 03.22.19 at 1:23 am
#68 Re-Cowtown on 03.21.19 at 10:15 pm
As soon as you resort to a consensus to bolster your argument about science you lose.

**************************************
You couldn’t be more wrong. A consensus means everything in science.
1. You take a guess at something(a hypothesis)
2. You try to prove your guess right or wrong
3. Other scientists independently confirm your results.

If all scientists get the same result they agree and form a…consensus.
———————————————
That’s the point. Not all scientist are getting the same results or even close to it. The “consensus” can be loosely stated as “pollution has an effect on climate”. This is true. Specific, isolated items like the effects of CFCs and how it reacts to the ozone layer have been proven.

What alarmist do is then take specific consensus and generalize it to “man is directly effecting global climate change” and the only solution is to collect a carbon tax to be doled out, unaccounted for to 3rd world nations who are the ones contributing to the most pollution.

#112 SoggyShorts on 03.22.19 at 10:34 am

#105 Re-Cowtown on 03.22.19 at 9:57 am

Without peer review, how confident are you that there isn’t a flaw in your methodology?
Sorry, but I’d like someone else to take a look.

The more important the discovery the more people should probably look at it, right?

#113 IHCTD9 on 03.22.19 at 10:48 am

#91 Figure it Out on 03.22.19 at 7:43 am

It doesn’t matter whether moderates and well educated people know your words are complete bullshit unsupported by law and tradition. Those aren’t the ones who fire the first shot.
____

Wernick? Is that you? hahahha

Seriously though, I think Wernick is bang on the money. The mental fragility of many young Western Males continues to erode. Many more arrive at adulthood with nothing to lose. Suicide rates for young Men keep climbing, even though it’s kept on the QT. Mental illness, anxiety, substance abuse, all up.

In the last 10 months I’ve personally seen 2 guys I grew up/worked with take their own lives. It’s a huge problem getting no attention – or even recognition. Don’t underestimate the potential here.

Many politicians like to point fingers and lay blame. If there is one critical failure rife among our Federal Liberals in particular – it is that none of them can keep their self-righteous pie-holes shut for 3 consecutive seconds. Usually they’ve pissed off half the planet before they decide to finally shut their sanctimonious traps.

I’ll tell you right now, there is a 99% chance that the hornets nest for Canadian violence is filled with aimless, agitated (mostly white) young Men.

The minute Politics takes a turn from running the country to telling folks they are evil just for being born – you’re asking for trouble. These kids are ALREADY killing themselves – think about that for a minute.

The situation is currently one stop for a firearm away from hitting the headlines.

#114 NoName on 03.22.19 at 10:55 am

#99 IHCTD9 on 03.22.19 at 8:43 am

C’mon trackror you cant possibly take that dude for sirius, i came across after his chanell way bay when i was resirching shortage of toilet paper in Venezuela, yes i may have mentioned that here in comment section 2012-ish.

Ives seen many like him there are first to cry when shtf.

Ill tell you secret that noone knows id even when shtf, you are better off goin in fat and building your stamnia and endurance, over those gym muscle guys. Gues where their 4k calories will come from, muscles, and it won’t be that long for them before fatigue kick in.

Just saying…

#115 Figure it Out on 03.22.19 at 10:56 am

“Yes, right and duty to lie prior to the election balanced budget yada yada yada then tack on a 100 billion in debt. Sure things can change but Justin didn’t even try!”

You’re deflecting. If voters don’t like the Liberals, the election is only 1/2 a year away. A day or two ago, somebody asked, where is an independent judiciary, able to investigate the government regardless of the government’s wishes. Well, in Italy, is the answer. Here, we only have the ballot box.

It is worth noting that both the Conservatives and the NDP promised balanced budgets in the last campaign, and the Liberals promised a deficit. Voters chose the Liberals. Soon, they get to choose again.

I will grudgingly go along with nearly any procedural tomfoolery that accords with Westminster parliamentary tradition, but the leader of Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition stating that a duly tabled budget is illegitimate raises my hackles fierce.

#116 NoName on 03.22.19 at 11:03 am

California is one funny place… All that welth and inteligencia and high levels of crime and now medieval disises…

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/medieval-diseases-flare-as-unsanitary-living-conditions-proliferate/

#117 IHCTD9 on 03.22.19 at 11:27 am

#81 SoggyShorts on 03.22.19 at 1:23 am

You couldn’t be more wrong. A consensus means everything in science.
1. You take a guess at something(a hypothesis)
2. You try to prove your guess right or wrong
3. Other scientists independently confirm your results.

If all scientists get the same result they agree and form a…consensus.
____

I’ve sat on a number of councils and committees, and a
“consensus” is what eventually happens when enough things are said and debated to eventually get a majority vote thus allowing us to move on to the next item on the agenda.

Pretty much very time, there are folks who don’t really agree with the motion, but are close enough to say aye. You might have 10 Aye’s (5 of which are just throwing in their lot with the Aye’s), and 6 Nay’s. 5 agree, 5 are indifferent but said aye, 6 disagree: Motion carried.

Does not sound like a good way to make scientific determinations to me. Anti-scientific actually.

It’s totally possible to get a consensus just by saying the same thing differently, or with a different tone, by employing fear tactics, etc. The issue stays the same, the vote changes.

#118 Blackdog on 03.22.19 at 11:29 am

@JD, re: “On a different note, if there are any US citizens among the readers here (with Canadian citizenship or merely residency), I’d love to hear from you on your experiences with ETFs. With IRS’s recent filing requirements which have made computation too cumbersome, are you folks filling your portfolios with ETFs nevertheless? Anything more than 3-5 ETFs in a portfolio would make the life of a transborder accountant very difficult. Given that, how are you finding a balance? I’d appreciate it if anybody cares to share their experience with this. ”

Seeing as how I was a middle aged adult by the time I figured out I was owned by the US and thus a US taxpayer on my Canadian income (also been a Canadian since birth and lived only in Canada since I was a toddler), the way I handle ETFs is to buy as many as I like and not tell IRS about any of them. From what I understand that is how MOST US person Canadians do it also. In other words, I don’t consider myself a US taxpayer regardless what US says.

#119 IHCTD9 on 03.22.19 at 11:50 am

#114 NoName on 03.22.19 at 10:55 am
#99 IHCTD9 on 03.22.19 at 8:43 am

C’mon trackror you cant possibly take that dude for sirius, i came across after his chanell way bay when i was resirching shortage of toilet paper in Venezuela, yes i may have mentioned that here in comment section 2012-ish.

Ives seen many like him there are first to cry when shtf.

Ill tell you secret that noone knows id even when shtf, you are better off goin in fat and building your stamnia and endurance, over those gym muscle guys. Gues where their 4k calories will come from, muscles, and it won’t be that long for them before fatigue kick in.

Just saying…
____

I take very little seriously while I am looking at a screen :). I think I threw a smiley in there before the link!

That said, those that consider preparing for the basics of life in our technology dependent world are way ahead of their time IMHO.

I think the more we rely on technology, the more we open ourselves to a major problems if all those screens and microchips went blank.

CBC just did an article about a Solar Proton Event that happened in 660BC that today, would have us all in the dark. Zero communication, transportation, medical services, heat, air conditioning, food supply, sewage systems or water supply. In 660BC folks would have watched the beautiful Northern Lights display and then went to sleep, but today; it would be a full on SHTF event.

I like CP’s channel because the vids are well done, entertaining, and occasionally give me something to think about. He’s fairly level headed, and quite philosophical – although on some vids he’s got the DOOM turned up to 11 :).

#120 IHCTD9 on 03.22.19 at 11:57 am

#115 Figure it Out on 03.22.19 at 10:56 am

…but the leader of Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition stating that a duly tabled budget is illegitimate raises my hackles fierce.
___

I gotta say – that is a bizarre thing to get angry about…

#121 NoName on 03.22.19 at 12:04 pm

Some time ago i did mention how for free people spend around 4 billions on arms and accessories. here is an interesting read about peeping industry. Chart is funny i guess “everyone” was all getting ready for 2012…

https://blog.hubspot.com/marketing/survival-industry-growth

And this from last year.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/11/business/prepper-survivalism-north-korea.html

#122 NoName on 03.22.19 at 12:05 pm

Damn you automatically correct spelling, its not peeping its prepping industry.

#123 Captain Uppa on 03.22.19 at 12:06 pm

Interest rate eventually going downa, Downa, DOWNA.

Mixed with government meddling…

GTA Home prices going uppa, Uppa, UPPA!

#124 Yellow Vest on 03.22.19 at 12:07 pm

Willy Wonka on 03.21.19 at 5:03 pm
New report from Transparency International illustrating how billions from unknown origins have been funneled into residential GTA real-estate in just the last 10 years. Money laundering comes top of mind. This is one part of the puzzle as to how GTA real-estate values exploded in the last 10 years despite minimal local wage growth.

http://www.transparencycanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/BOT-GTA-Report-WEB-copy.pdf

Inconsequential in a market that huge. – Garth

+++++++++++++++

That silly media. Always spewing fake news

https://globalnews.ca/video/5083013/criminals-hiding-billions-in-toronto-real-estate

#125 Captain Uppa on 03.22.19 at 12:09 pm

All the economic numbers are pointing downa. But employment uppa. BOC will need to cute rate-a. As Garth always says, rates and real estate prices are inverse-a.

#126 Captain Uppa on 03.22.19 at 12:10 pm

Forgot about Bonds! downa, Downa, DOWNA!!!

Ok, I’m done.

#127 Remembrancer on 03.22.19 at 12:12 pm

#115 Figure it Out on 03.22.19 at 10:56 am

To add…

Canada has an independent judiciary, full stop.

https://www.justice.gc.ca/eng/csj-sjc/ccs-ajc/05.html

The mistake often made is the role of that body. In Canada, “…judges do not legislate or enforce the law – that is the role of the legislative and executive branches of government and its departments and agencies. The role of judges is to interpret and apply the law in various cases…”
– The Canadian Encyclopedia

The other mistake often made on this topic is the popular cultural influence of a greater separation of executive and legislative in the US than in a Westminster parliamentary democracy like ours leads to incorrect assumptions. Here, the executive and legislative are in lock step in a majority government.

Except for a major party revolt, which would probably first remove the leader (aka Prime Minister) rather then bring down the government and force an election… There are procedural legislative means i.e. non-confidence vote, but as you see with the hapless Ms. May, the majority party is usually loath to roll the dice by forcing an election on even the most continuous issues.

More obscure would an action by the Governor General, who, though currently seemingly busy swearing in new ministers almost every day lately, does have some constitutional heft and is technically the commander-in-chief on behalf of Her Majesty…

https://www.canada.ca/en/canadian-heritage/services/crown-canada/governor-general.html

All that said, the leader of Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition calling the budget illegitimate is more than simple unparliamentarily hyperbole – for shame…

#128 Remembrancer on 03.22.19 at 12:15 pm

#117 IHCTD9 on 03.22.19 at 11:27 am
Does not sound like a good way to make scientific determinations to me. Anti-scientific actually.
———————————-
Absolutely. Which why the way you described consensus and your experience is not how it works…

#129 ImGonnaBeSick on 03.22.19 at 12:17 pm

#97 Tater on 03.22.19 at 8:29 am

Way to prove his point you tater-head.

#130 Deplorable dude on 03.22.19 at 12:43 pm

#81 Soggy Shorts…”You couldn’t be more wrong. A consensus means everything in science”

—————

“Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts” – Richard Feynman……

I wouldn’t even classify ‘Climate Science’….as a science. One of the core components of a scientific theory is that it is falsifiable. This isn’t the case for Climate alarmists….all and any evidence is taken as proof of man made climate change.

Made up and tampered with historical data does not a science make.

#131 Re-Cowtown on 03.22.19 at 12:55 pm

#110 SoggyShorts on 03.22.19 at 10:17 am
#105 Re-Cowtown on 03.22.19 at 9:57 am

Just to clarify, you are saying that if 1 person proves something, that’s good enough. Just as good as if someone else verifies it?

I’m sure that anti-vaxxers agree with you.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Einstein said that one person proving him wrong was enough.

What most people don’t get about science is that you can never really prove that something is true. All it takes is one failed prediction to blow a hole in a theory.

To put that into perspective, climate “scientists” have been making failed predictions since the 1970’s. Using Einstein’s Rule of Thumb the whole CO2 hypothesis should have been discarded long ago.

And that is the problem with “climate science”. Anyone who looks for a source of error is immediately shouted down, threatened, had their funding cut, called names, insulted etc. Anything to avoid answering a straight question.

David Suzuki is an excellent example of this type of cognitive dissonance. His solution to someone disagreeing with him is to demand that they be jailed.

And you fell into the same trap. You can’t show that I’m wrong, so you attempt to bring up the anti-vaxxers lunacy. Another tell of cognitive dissonance.

How about just dealing with what I said rather than inventing crap that I didn’t?

#132 Re-Cowtown on 03.22.19 at 1:11 pm

#112 SoggyShorts on 03.22.19 at 10:34 am
#105 Re-Cowtown on 03.22.19 at 9:57 am

Without peer review, how confident are you that there isn’t a flaw in your methodology?
Sorry, but I’d like someone else to take a look.

The more important the discovery the more people should probably look at it, right?

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Science is all about finding sources of error. But peer review means nothing about whether something is true or not. Only results from experiments and predictions based on those experiments can provide insight into veracity.

Theories must be examined from as many angles as possible, debated openly and strongly and torn apart and rebuilt as needed. Properly done, there is a great deal of humility in science.

But that is not what is happening in “climate science”. In fact it is the exact opposite, with several “climate scientists” going to court to sue people who disagree with them. These types of antics debase science.

There has yet to be an open debate between “alarmists” and “skeptics”. Trump will be correcting that shortly. He’ll be calling both sides to the carpet to make their cases.

#133 expat on 03.22.19 at 1:16 pm

heres an interesting thing

What happens when the bond market and pension funds decide not to buy Canadian bonds

Oh my

Universal Basic Income and the monstrous tax increases to go with it for those suckers left working will be the least of your worries.

Sovereign defaults will happen.
This end game into 2030ish IMHO will test the structure of western societies.

When the socialists decide that you have too much money and wealth they will simply imprison you and your family….

I bet they already have scouts looking for Siberia type enclaves in which to ship the capitalists and their evil spawn…

Remember this – when governments are afraid they act to save themselves – not you….

These 100’s of billions owed at each level of government are vulnerable to the winds of change in sentiment…

You all laugh now at this notion. Methinks at some point it’ll be you and your evil spawn (according to the “APPARATCHIKS” that you are a threat because he have wealth.

Doubt me? Look at the behavior of the Wernick. His antipathy to anyone who questioned his innocence and behavior was seen as a possible assassin…

He actually said that we were a threat….

Hyberpole? Go back and watch his arrogance again..

#134 re-re-cowtown on 03.22.19 at 1:21 pm

“The fundamental tell that “Climate Change” is political term engineered to deceive are the words themselves.”

What an argument. It got changed from Global Warming to Climate Change because the brainless amongst us would point to an unseasonably cold day and announce ‘SEE NO GLOBAL WARMING’. Now we have Re-Cowtown in his glorious wisdom ignoring the obvious and drastic changes we’ve seen in the last decade (drought, forest fires, temp records broken left and right, massive die off of life) because he doesn’t like the label that was put on it. Nonsense. I hope you’re young enough to have to watch the world burn with me. Judging by the way you talk, I’m sure you’ll be safely dead.

#135 DON on 03.22.19 at 1:38 pm

#123 Captain Uppa on 03.22.19 at 12:06 pm

Interest rate eventually going downa, Downa, DOWNA.

Mixed with government meddling…

GTA Home prices going uppa, Uppa, UPPA!
***********************

The tide on the Beach is going downa downa downa, but that tsunami on the horizon is going uppa uppa uppa.

I trust you are not standing on the Beach?

#136 Alistair McLaughlin on 03.22.19 at 1:43 pm

@#115 Figure it out, it sounds like you and Jake should get together. Both of you have hackles that get raised rather easily. Scheer’s rhetoric might be nonsensical and overwrought. That’s why we call political rhetoric ‘rhetoric’, and not something else. But it’s no worse than anything we’ve heard anywhere else.

Personally, my hackles are more likely to be raised by the shutdown of the Justice Committee’s hearings on SNC Lavalin than the typical howlings of the Opposition. Jane Philpott seems to agree. In fact, she agrees so much that she’s willing to steal the thunder from her own government’s budget to get her concerns on the front page again.

Which brings up an interesting theory. Am I the only one to notice that JWR and Philpott have intentionally timed every one of their actions to inflict maximum damage on the PMO? From the leak in early February that set the whole thing off (who leaked?), to JWR’s resignation immediately after Trudeau defiantly pointed out that “she’s still in my Cabinet”, to Philpott’s resignation on the day that Trudeau was set to rally the troops in Toronto in an effort to change the channel, to Philpott’s latest grenade toss in Macleans magazine that just happened to land in the headlines the day after the Budget…. every single action timed perfectly to undermine the government and the PM.

Then there is the strange insistence by both women that they’re “proud Liberals” (exact same term used by both) who will run as Liberals in the next election. Surely they must know that Trudeau’s only option is to kick them both out? There’s just no way caucus will accept them back in the fold while both have acted in a way that threatens the re-election chances of dozens of their fellow Liberals. Yet these “proud Liberals” are staring Trudeau down, refusing to leave, forcing him to do what he really doesn’t want to do. They also must know full well that when he does boot them, he will be alienating millions of women voters across the country, and possibly igniting rebellions in at least two BC riding associations.

So blog dogs, what is it? Are these two women just politically naïve and so full of integrity that they are merely acting on their consciences? Or are they part of a very deliberate and coordinated effort to bring Justin Trudeau down? Even if you lean toward the former, ask yourself this: If they were deliberately acting in concert to bring their leader down, what would they have done differently? I can’t think of a single, solitary thing they could have done that would have harmed Trudeau and their party more. Every action thus far has been timed perfectly to inflict maximum damage, to throw off the government’s message, to take Justin’s knees out from under him, to bring SNC back into the news just as the cycle is petering out. Could be just coincidence I guess.

#137 PastThePeak on 03.22.19 at 1:45 pm

#105 Re-Cowtown on 03.22.19 at 9:57 am
#81 SoggyShorts on 03.22.19 at 1:23 am
#68 Re-Cowtown on 03.21.19 at 10:15 pm

If results are repeatable and falsifiable, then consensus is meaningless. If it doesn’t matter who is doing the experiment, then the experimental results rule the day and the experimenters consensus for or against are meaningless.

All you’re trying to do is using word salad to slather on a messed up definition of “consensus” on top of the scientific method to try to steal some credibility from science. Complete BS, and I’m calling you on it.

As to peer review, none of Einstein’s papers were peer reviewed. If the science is solid, then peer review is also meaningless.

Peer review and consensus are the two most abused terms in science. As a practicing scientist, as soon as someone beaks off about consensus and peer review it is a massive red flag that they really don’t have anything to support their research, and what they have will probably fail the sniff test in very short order.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

I agree fully. Consensus of belief is irrelevant. As noted, if AGW was able to have a falsifiable theory, and many were able to reproduce results and develop reliable predictions (predicting the past doesn’t count), then yes that is a measure of “results consensus”.

The consensus of the IPCC on AGW is opinion based (most scientists agree), since such a falsifiable theory does not exist.

Peer review is of course useful in checking out the validity of ones hypothesis, taking feedback, and refining said theory. But it doesn’t “prove” anything. And if the peer review group becomes politicized and starts to exclude anyone with a contrary view, then its effectiveness is significantly reduced.

Any good scientist is “skeptical”. They want to see the data, question it, its quality, determine if the data and methods themselves are reliable. And then try to (independently) reproduce the same outcome or predictions.

I am not a “denier” (such an ugly term, and says something about those that use it). I am skeptical. The behaviour of the [public face at least] of AGW has been less than exemplary – refusing to share underlying data and methods, altering historical data with “adjustments”, hostile to skepticism, and taking a mostly political approach to the subject.

If human civilization is to make completely MASSIVE, EXPENSIVE, and society altering changes to address this proposed issue, then the theory (and its proponents) better be able to withstand some scrutiny.

Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. Not name calling.

#138 Blacksheep on 03.22.19 at 1:54 pm

Figure # 115,

“raises my hackles fierce.”
———————————–
Wow, raised hackles….Fierce even.

I respectfully suggest millions of Canadian citizens are just as upset, with the sitting governments attempt to simply stop, any further discussion on the SNC debacle.

If a party, any political party, has done no wrong, would it not seem logical that they would want to get to the bottom of what took place and challenge those making false accusations (Ahem..) against them, you know, to clear their good name?

Specially with an election only months away?

Make sense to many and thats why the SNC issue, will not just go away…

#139 Re-Cowtown on 03.22.19 at 2:00 pm

#134 re-re-cowtown on 03.22.19 at 1:21 pm
“The fundamental tell that “Climate Change” is political term engineered to deceive are the words themselves.”

What an argument. It got changed from Global Warming to Climate Change because the brainless amongst us would point to an unseasonably cold day and announce ‘SEE NO GLOBAL WARMING’. Now we have Re-Cowtown in his glorious wisdom ignoring the obvious and drastic changes we’ve seen in the last decade (drought, forest fires, temp records broken left and right, massive die off of life) because he doesn’t like the label that was put on it. Nonsense. I hope you’re young enough to have to watch the world burn with me. Judging by the way you talk, I’m sure you’ll be safely dead.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Another excellent example of cognitive dissonance. You first tell me that only brainless people would equate weather with climate…. and then you prattle on about how weather is ….. climate.

Entertaining!

#140 Carbon Tax on 03.22.19 at 2:01 pm

Just another talking point that our PM booms out to capture votes from the believers. He has numerous talking points targeting specific groups telling them what they want to hear. The means justify the end result that is keeping power at any cost. How many times does he remind us that he’s a feminist? Yet he apparently doesn’t get along too well with the ladies, and where has his wife been for almost 3 months?

#141 Tater on 03.22.19 at 2:09 pm

#129 ImGonnaBeSick on 03.22.19 at 12:17 pm
#97 Tater on 03.22.19 at 8:29 am

Way to prove his point you tater-head.
—————————————————————-

Hmmmm. Guy says he can’t express a benign opinion, I ask him for an example, and you somehow think I’m trying to stifle him?

Suggest you get the batteries in your CO2 detector checked. Would explain your nausea and stupidity.

#142 PastThePeak on 03.22.19 at 2:15 pm

#112 SoggyShorts on 03.22.19 at 10:34 am

The more important the discovery the more people should probably look at it, right?
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

When was the last time a scientist on the “skeptical” side was invited to peer review a “climate science” paper?

#143 Y. Knott on 03.22.19 at 2:16 pm

#134 re-re-cowtown on 03.22.19 at 1:21 pm

“The fundamental tell that “Climate Change” is political term engineered to deceive are the words themselves.”

What an argument. It got changed from Global Warming to Climate Change because the brainless amongst us would point to an unseasonably cold day and announce ‘SEE NO GLOBAL WARMING’. Now we have Re-Cowtown in his glorious wisdom ignoring the obvious and drastic changes we’ve seen in the last decade (drought, forest fires, temp records broken left and right, massive die off of life) because he doesn’t like the label that was put on it. Nonsense. I hope you’re young enough to have to watch the world burn with me. Judging by the way you talk, I’m sure you’ll be safely dead.

– You do know that none of that is actually happening, right? You say “climate catastrophe”, I say “doctored stats” – and I have a buncha’ them logged.
– What drought? – California has a record snowpack at the moment.
– Are you talking the Camp Fire, that was triggered by a downed PG&E power line and fed by years of accumulated brush that Californians aren’t allowed to clear?
– Temp records broken left & right? – like the record cold this Winter?
– Massive die-off of life? Where? Polar bear population is exploding; and the bleached reefs are coming back just fine.
– Incidentally, all that CO2 is greening the Earth; and the hottest Summer I ever encountered was 14 years ago, our garden attests they’ve been pretty crummy since.

You say “We’re all gonna BURN!”, I say “we didn’t and we aren’t – why would I believe you when you say we will? Especially when the last three times you said it, we didn’t? And before then you were saying we’d freeze.”

Face it – all you have to go-on are models; models that have all been spectacularly wrong. The sea levels are not rising; no island has been evacuated for climate change-related causes, despite your dire predictions. Al Gore promised us New York would be underwater last Summer; I haven’t been there to check on it, but I betcha’ if ANY of his global-warming predictions had come true, we’d’ve heard of it.

But you’re right about one thing – there is a consensus among global warming alarmists; you all agree that your models show the observations are wrong.

Here’s a tip. Confucius say, “You can lead a horse to water but you can’t make it drink. And standing on the other bank shrieking “What’s WROOOOONG with you???!!!” won’t change its mind either.”

P.S. “Global Warming” got changed to “Climate Change” because the globe was not warming – the Hadley CRU’s “hide the decline” emails are in the public domain.

#144 AGuyInVancouver on 03.22.19 at 2:31 pm

Of course foreign buyers influence major markets. But they do not set prices. We do that. – Garth
_ _ _
A verified 20% of newbuild condo buyers is more than enough to set the market price:

“..In Coquitlam, B.C., 20.8 per cent of new condos had at least one non-resident on title. In Surrey, B.C., the figure is 20.5 per cent of condos in that time period. Burnaby, B.C., is at 25.1 per cent. Richmond, B.C., has the highest percentage of all, at a whopping 25.8 per cent, he says.

“In Richmond, condos built between 2016 to 2017, we’re talking about 26 per cent have non-resident participation. That’s one in four.”
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/vancouver/article-previous-housing-data-understated-amount-of-non-resident-buyers-in/

Tell us how many actual units are involved. – Garth

#145 SoggyShorts on 03.22.19 at 2:47 pm

#131 Re-Cowtown on 03.22.19 at 12:55 pm
Einstein said that one person proving him wrong was enough.
************************
Exactly. Someone else proves you wrong = no consensus.
consensus
noun [ S or U ] UK ​ /kənˈsen.səs/ US ​ /kənˈsen.səs/

C2 a generally accepted opinion or decision among a group of people

——————————————

#132 Re-Cowtown on 03.22.19 at 1:11 pm

Science is all about finding sources of error. But peer review means nothing about whether something is true or not. Only results from experiments and predictions based on those experiments can provide insight into veracity.
peer re·view
/ˌpi(ə)r rəˈvyo͞o/Submit
noun
1.
evaluation of scientific, academic, or professional work by others working in the same field.
“we submit our findings to rigorous peer review”

“Essentially, peer review is an academic term for quality control. Each article published in a peer-reviewed journal was closely examined by a panel of reviewers who are experts on the article’s topic (that is, the author’s professional peers…hence the term peer review). The reviewers look for proper use of research methods….”

None of that sounds like a bad idea to me.

You’ll note at no point did I mention the climate, just the very basic concept that science should be double-checked, and if findings are accurate then the result will be a consensus among those who verified it.

#146 SoggyShorts on 03.22.19 at 2:51 pm

#117 IHCTD9 on 03.22.19 at 11:27 am
#81 SoggyShorts on 03.22.19 at 1:23 am
*****************
I’m pretty sure that a scientific consensus isn’t made when 51% of them agree…

#147 not 1st on 03.22.19 at 3:02 pm

Re-Cowtown, when the rising sea waters start lapping the steps of Suzuki’s Quadra island mansion or Leos Malibu beach front home, then I will start worrying. Wake me up when it happens.

You call this a mansion? Funny. Looks like David Suzuki lives modestly, for his success. What’s yours, by the way? – Garth

#148 Alistair McLaughlin on 03.22.19 at 3:04 pm

I wrote that previous (admittedly too long) comment before I read this:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/wilson-raybould-justice-snc-lavalin-1.5067543

Another day, another well-timed announcement – this time by JWR – to get the SNC Lavalin story back into the news, just as Philpott drops from the front page. The media has already forgotten there was a Budget on Tuesday. Those two women are playing the media, and their own government, like PR pros. :)

And indeed, their caucus mates are starting to get very upset. How long before Trudeau kicks them both to the curb, with all the ugly consequences that will have for his electoral fortunes?

Oh, and here is Katherine McKenna’s (paraphrased) response:

We need to deal with this now so we can get back to combating racism and climate change!!!

Got that? This is serious! By refusing to leave this thing alone, JWR and Philpott are delaying the fight against racism and climate change! Apparently there is just no way the government can combat racism and climate change while still dealing with this SNC Lavalin thing. It’s one or the other. WHERE ARE YOUR PRIORITIES PEOPLE???

My God, this government has been virtue-signalling for so long they don’t know any other way of communicating. Pathetic.

#149 bdwy sktrn on 03.22.19 at 3:27 pm

it’s always the english/polysci/gender studies types spouting off about the consensus of scientists.

i know and work(ed) with hundreds of engineers and science types. you know the guys who make nuclear plants, airplanes, chemical processing plants, pharmaceuticals, facilities that treat your drinking water and sewage and provide you electricity.

guys who have to do REAL science or people will die.

I’d say they are about 95% skeptical of the claims and models of the ipcc.

When you can understand the energy dynamics of any system, from reactor core to a refrigerator, you can clearly see that the assumptions that must be made to do the same for the entire planet must be so large as to render any results meaningless.

climate scientists are mostly flunkies from engineering school.
that’s why they work in climate ‘science’.

#150 My Priority on 03.22.19 at 3:35 pm

#148 Alistair – I say if the government has nothing to hide from we the people, then allow the ladies to give us their story of events that took place. Apparently, the Liberal government will not allow freedom of speech, and is using a majority vote to throw them under the bus. This indicates there is indeed something serious to hide, and this must be known, or we are no longer a free and democratic society anymore under the rule of law.

#151 Neo on 03.22.19 at 3:56 pm

Hi Garth,

So the US 10 year is at 2.46% and you still think it’s full steam ahead huh?

Looks like the Robos just realized the yield curve inverted and have a tepid down reaction.

So when do they cross the 3% mendoza line again and crash? We won’t need that next time. Keep the powder dry for more Fed chicanery to keep this pig afloat.

#152 Blacksheep on 03.22.19 at 4:00 pm

expat # 133,

“Sovereign defaults will happen.
This end game into 2030ish IMHO will test the structure of western societies.”
——————————
For the PIIGS in Europe, maybe…

That’s If super Mario doesn’t want to save them, but for any sovereign in control, not a chance.

Selling bonds or not, if push comes to shove, sovereign’s would, take back control of the printing press and make sure all debts in sovereign currencies are paid in full. Could this cause inflation, sure, but inflation’s better that default and that why this is non starter.

The only default that could occur, would be by countries that chose to default and that is a whole other conversation. Have look at Stephanie Kelton MMT vids online. You’ll never see at national debts or Gold, in the same light.

#153 Crazyfox on 03.22.19 at 4:03 pm

Once again, where to begin. Lets start with climate change. The 4 warmest years of average global temps since humanity has been keeping accurate records to know going back to the 1880’s has happened in 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018. This should be more than enough to concern people, especially considering that the topic is not new, that overpopulation is a tremendous challenge the world faces now not just with pollution of GHG’s but pollution in general, dwindling resources, rising extinction, lower fish stocks, 60% lower animal populations, dramatic drops in insect populations, sperm counts, deforestation, the list goes on and consumers and investors don’t want to hear this because they don’t want to hear and end to consumption or growth.

Nor do politicians who know the good fortunes of seemingly endless growth but the party will end and change will continue to come. Nowhere has change occurred so rapidly than the Arctic and to know why such rapid changes occur only further convinces us that climate change is both man made and dangerous.

A couple weeks back, I suggested that land temperatures are rising 3x faster than oceans globally. At first blush, it would look like that’s not true since there are all kinds of charts that say its 2x like this one:

https://thinkprogress.org/global-warming-now-twice-as-fast-over-land-than-the-ocean-nasa-chart-shows-52b4afe01345/

The discrepancy is in the baseline as this scientist explains here at the 8 and 9 minute mark:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=guG7bpfXxS4

Why this is significant is because this is unrelated to global temperatures doubling in mid latitudes and tripling in high latitudes and rising as high as 5x in the high Arctic. What this means is the world has warmed 1.1 degrees C since 1850 but! Its warmed 3 degrees more on equatorial land, 6 degrees C more on mid latitudes on land and 10 degrees C more on land. If you are in your 50’s or older, empirical evidence will tell you that this is so.

Why is it warming so much faster at mid and high latitudes? Simple physics:

https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=gVmHJTAb&id=D1D7913B3AA8B1F342DC1FFCF4E25920C8F292B6&thid=OIP.gVmHJTAbWAYYFuPAGBTTWAHaE6&mediaurl=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic1.bigstockphoto.com%2F2%2F0%2F2%2Flarge1500%2F202919536.jpg&exph=996&expw=1500&q=arctic+sunlight+angles&simid=608036624717843116&selectedIndex=3&ajaxhist=0

When we are at or near the equator, the light of the sun at high noon is coming down straight at us but as we get to higher latitudes, the angle of light drops meaning the light has to go through 2 to 3 to 4x that much more atmospheric thickness just to get to the Earth’s surface as illustrated in the link above. That wasn’t a big issue back in 1850 with C02 around 280 ppm’s but today, its around 410 ppm’s with a C02 equivalent around 495 ppm’s and with the midnight sun effect in and around the Arctic, its a problem. Was it Jason Box that said Arctic temperatures “over ice” are 8 degrees warmer today than pre-industrial? I’ll have to look into that.

60 years ago, the Arctic melted maybe a few days a year. Today, the Arctic ice melts almost straight through from mid to late June through to mid to late August as the days get shorter. We used to have 9 million sq kilometers of snow cover in June. Now we have 3 million and falling. To give you some idea of how big a million sq km’s is, BC is 944,000 sq km’s so we are losing our snow reflection sooner, its warming faster and its having consequences.

Recently I watched a you tube video on Arctic ice where it is at now as of March 9th:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YYJIwGACKY8

The whole thing is worth a watch but in particular, at the 7:50 mark we will see charts of real time animation of maxium ice thickness over the Arctic provided by the U.S. navy (again, these are not from models like one would expect from DMI but real time) and minimum ice thickness levels @ the 12:15 mark. The only questions that remain once seeing Arctic ice at these levels is how long before we see the first September Blue Ocean Event (best guess 2022), if and when will we see BOE’s in August or sooner in the 2020’s and how delayed will freeze up come shortening winters, continuing to slow down summer/fall jet streams and all of the expected extreme weather events (extended heatwaves, floods, forest fires, crop failures, storms etc.), how much more quickly will melting permafrost accelerate and what kind of timelines can we look at realistically for Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to destabilize creating unexpected Sea Level Rise?

There are still too many unknowns but what we can ascertain right now is that an Arctic Blue Ocean Event is not far off, most likely within 5 years and it will be followed by longer BOE duration’s in the years that follow. Couple this with continued climate change that takes the planet from 1.1 C today to 1.5C somewhere between 2030 and 2034, and we continued Arctic warming roughly 10x .4 or 4 or 5 degrees C warmer than now with BOE’s lasting 3 or 4 months, possibly longer in 10 short years from its first one? What this means is that unless you have a quick exit out for your life (too old, sick, lame or unlucky) or you have brain damage and can’t add 2+2 or you have a personality disorder, you will see drama and you will fear for the future of your children.

A BOE will force the world to react, it has to react regardless of success or failure and I hope its in time… but I don’t think so. Just keep in mind, no matter what happens, what you learned (if fortunate) when you were young. “Its not a question of whether you win or lose, its how you played the game” or “life is not a zero sum game. Success and failure, while important, come 2nd always, to effort. When we look back on our lives, we won’t remember wins or losses, it will be the intensity of effort (or, dualistically speaking, the lack thereof)”.

#154 n1tro on 03.22.19 at 4:08 pm

DELETED

#155 LP on 03.22.19 at 4:38 pm

Re consensus:

Former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher said this about consensus: “The process of abandoning all beliefs, principles, values, and policies in search of something in which no one believes, but to which no one objects.”

Or as I believe it to be, the lowest common denominator acceptable to all.

#156 mike on 03.25.19 at 12:06 pm

Despite 80 years of effective fear-mongering, tribalism = nature. Whether we are talking species of deer or humans. It is not actually a bad word. We’ve had decades of the liberal consumerism and cartoonish anti-tribal liturgy it did not lead to rainbows and unicorns or the colonization of space, surprise surprise. Humans should work with Nature not “fight it”. Exchange lumber for bananas etc. but keep your Homeland and Heritage, eh. In the long run, liberalism is boring. Work hard, buy land, shun debt, raise a family, keep the faith.