The howl

On Tuesday the finance minister will drop his budget. Looks like it’ll contain incentives to borrow and spend money on houses (and Teslas). The economy is slowing. Got it. But do we really need more debt in Canada?

Some background. Got lots of it on Friday. What a mess we’ve created.

First the debt, 80% of which has been accumulated to buy residential real estate. The debt-to-disposable-income ratio now sits at 174%. Yes, another record. The amount of money people are borrowing grows as wages fall behind inflation. We’re also spending more of what we earn servicing existing debts. The amount we pour into loan payments is the highest in 12 years.

Mortgages are massive. So are HELOCs. They now account for over 47% of consumer credit at the banks. Says a Scotiabank report (this is scary): “The rise in HELOC borrowing may be explained… by the increase in the value of residential assets held by households and the lower rate of interest offered on most HELOC products. Borrowers may also be borrowing against their homes to repay principal or simply to capitalise interest due on other types of debt, thereby enabling excessive borrowing.”

So Canadian families owe more ($2.2 trillion) than the size of the entire economy. New borrowing has increased. Debt relative to income is expanding, and spending on that debt is eating into finances as never before. Now folks are using lines of credit to refinance existing debt so they can borrow more. As stated, most of this money has gone into housing – and continues to do so.

So, second, what’s happened to that real estate we so sacrificed to obtain?

It’s not often that an official national realtor media release uses words like “plummeted” and “plunged”, but that’s now happened. In describing February sales across this land CREA pulled no punches. The month/month decline was an unprecedented 9.1%, taking sales to a 7-year low, affecting 75% of all markets including the major markets. Prices have fallen and the industry is stressing over the stress test – which is making the inevitable downturn deeper.

“For aspiring homebuyers being kept on the sidelines by the mortgage stress-test, it’s a bitter pill to swallow when policy makers say the policy is working as intended,”  CREA’s boss howls. “Fewer qualified buyers means sellers are affected too.” Adds the realtor’s chief economist: “The housing sector is on track to further reduce waning Canadian economic growth. Only time will tell whether successive changes to mortgage regulations went too far, since the impact of policy decisions becomes apparent only well after the fact.”

So what’s the bottom line?

Shocking, actually. Thanks to the decline in overall real estate values – the first in a decade – Canadian families have lost $30,000,000,000. That’s thirty billion – compared to where things sat just a year ago. Never before in the last twenty years have homes across the country fallen thus in value. And after we added so much debt to get one. Many must feel crestfallen. Betrayed, even.

The realtors forecast further sales declines in 2019 – the lowest per capita activity in twenty years. If the economy does slow, if job creation moderates, if wages trail inflation, if oil declines, if trade wars persist, or if our historic level of indebtedness catches up to us, things might grow worse for housing and those whose net worth is wedded to it.

The budget on Tuesday, says the government, will goad more young people into buying real estate by increasing mortgage amortization. Payments would drop a little. Interest charged would increase. The obligation would be extended to thirty years.

But, Mr. Morneau. Is more debt the answer?

 

107 comments ↓

#1 bdwy sktrn on 03.15.19 at 3:21 pm

was this an accident? too early.

second?

#2 Canadowe on 03.15.19 at 3:29 pm

This place is a joke. Keep kicking that FIRE can down the road Canadorks. It’s how great economies are built. Didn’t ya know?

#3 catnogood on 03.15.19 at 3:35 pm

The Canadian government keeps pumping out propaganda that has the populus so intoxicated with a vision of limitless opportunity and equity here and moral superiority to the currently staggering Yanks. This manages to obliterate any critical or contrarian thinking. Hence, the national debate is about T2’s hair and the NHL.

#4 Ubul on 03.15.19 at 3:37 pm

Thanks to the decline in overall real estate values – the first in a decade – Canadian families have lost $30,000,000,000. That’s thirty billion – compared to where things sat just a year ago.

==

Paper loss, unless sold, plus not all RE was purchased a year ago. At the same time rents in TO are all time high.
People are screwed either way, one can argue how one get screwed more, by owning or renting.

#5 Dave on 03.15.19 at 3:39 pm

Trudeau will try to stimulate the canadian real market and banks have already reduced rates.

BUT the mindset and emotion has changed in 99% of canadians. Real Estate is doomed

#6 AGuyInVancouver on 03.15.19 at 3:42 pm

Of course the real estate industrial complex unleashes their most over the top hyperbole just before the budget. If Morneau caves than it is clear we must hope for an external black swan event to bring the real estate house of cards tumbling down. Yes, it will be painful but we dodged around the harsh medicine the USA was forced to take in 2008 and now we’re suffering the consequences.

Unlike 1995, there is no Paul Martin in either major party to force us to take our medicine, that’s why it needs to come from outside.

#7 jim on 03.15.19 at 3:52 pm

Never before in the last twenty years have homes across the country fallen thus in value. And after we added so much debt to get one. Many must feel crestfallen. Betrayed, even.

*******************

So you buy an asset that has been inflated by historically low interest rates over a period of ten years and then feel betrayed when rates begin to rise to more historic levels? It’s the saver that should feel betrayed.

#8 John on 03.15.19 at 4:17 pm

More debt is the answer if the question is how do we improve our odds of getting elected in the fall.

A policy that is effectively lowering prices is of course making housing more affordable. If less credit means some can’t afford the house they would prefer, so be it. Stress test is effectively protecting people from themselves, as noone else was willing to (banks competing for business and have government backstops for risk, private lenders and realtors all short term commission based incentives, buyers see a trend and extrapolate to infinity).

#9 The Real Mark on 03.15.19 at 4:18 pm

I’m not convinced that any measures at debt expansion will actually work. As many asset bubbles over the years have taught us, its darn near impossible to reflate the same bubble over and over again once it has reached overcapacity. A record percentage of Canadians already own houses. Involuntary homelessness has basically been eradicated, and renting has almost never been more affordable or accessible to Canadians. Low-end jobs are ubiquitous which is quite a turn from the 1980s and 1990s when low-end jobs were relatively scarce in comparison.

If (and as) the Bank of Canada lowers rates, don’t expect retail mortgage rates to fall. Increasing spreads, the result of shifting bank investment preferences, will likely keep rates to actual borrowers similar. There will be no bail-out of overleveraged residential RE-backed borrowers by the Bank of Canada.

So how does one make money due to the calamity that is unfolding in Canadian RE? Simple, simply avoid it, and buy assets and asset classes that are deeply out of favour. Deflation hedges such as gold mining stocks are a great idea — they benefit from the simultaneous lowering of production costs due to labour and equipment being available cheaply, and the rising desire of investors to hold precious metals in fear of debt defaults. Fortunately Canada has a disproportionate exposure to the industry, particularly in Vancouver, concentrated amongst a relative few. So maybe those Vancouver houses, which ordinarily would need to fall 80-90% to restore normal ratios, may not see quite the serious decimation as the ordinary math would imply.

#10 PeterfromCalgary on 03.15.19 at 4:21 pm

Rest assured the SNC Lavalin party and his leader Just-not-ready-Justin will do whatever it takes to get re-elected.

Multi-generational 200 year mortgages
Stress test what stress test?
Mortgages for dead people
Government deficit spending for all kinds of goodies

Party on! The hangover comes after the election!

#11 Jay Currie on 03.15.19 at 4:49 pm

The rental market in Vancouver is hilarious. Dozens of high end houses a day are appearing on Craigslist all priced at $5000 plus per month. All listed with the same boiler plate and all listed with agents which suggests their actual owners are not “in country” as it were.

For fun I send letters such as this one:

****

5.494 assessed

Empty House Tax plus Spec tax if offshore owner $164,820

That’s $13,700 a month.

We might be interested in this property at $2000 a month.

Write [email protected]

But hurry, we are looking at a lot of rental properties in Vancouver.

Excellent references, good income, family of 4.

Cheers,

****

The math on 5 million plus houses – which is to say the whole of the West Side of Vancouver and West Vancouver – for a foreign resident subject to the empty house taxes is down right ugly. But, for the moment, encouraged by newbie Realtors who have never experienced a housing crash, everyone wants $5000+ per month. That will change.

#12 slamsham on 03.15.19 at 4:55 pm

If the government wanted to make housing more affordable and now that real estate prices are starting to come down, isn’t this what they wanted???

Shouldn’t they keep walking this path and let housing prices decrease, hence, make housing affordable again?

With the upcoming budget, if they mess with lending rules now with the upcoming budget , it’ll just make housing prices go up again and likely increasing the debt.

#9
“its darn near impossible to reflate the same bubble over and over again”

I think it’s possible, just with another generation of buyers. (think millennials)

#13 greyhound on 03.15.19 at 5:06 pm

“So Canadian families owe more ($2.2 trillion) than the size of the entire economy. New borrowing has increased. Debt relative to income is expanding, and spending on that debt is eating into finances as never before…”

What’s that saying about bankruptcy, something like “things take way longer than you would have thought, and then happen faster than you could imagine…”

#14 Midnights on 03.15.19 at 5:09 pm

Too funny for all the criticism President Trump got for lowering taxes etc. Canada realizes that Trump could be onto something.
https://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/taxes/canadas-income-tax-rates-have-become-uncompetitive-and-the-economy-will-pay-the-price

#15 jess on 03.15.19 at 5:13 pm

Digital gangsters and Wall Street /banksters appear to be the new growth industry in America

http://wallstreetonparade.com/2019/02/wall-streets-banksters-are-clandestinely-trading-the-digital-gangster-stock-of-facebook/

http://wallstreetonparade.com/2019/03/the-feds-fancy-footwork-on-stress-tests-was-about-silencing-bank-examiners/

#16 baloney Sandwitch on 03.15.19 at 5:13 pm

But, Mr. Morneau. Is more debt the answer?

Yes, Gartho. Debt is more fun than no debt. Plus, its the kid’s problem, you, I (and the dog) will be dead.

#17 Mike in YYC on 03.15.19 at 5:17 pm

Hell No. The answer is to send T2 packing in October.

#18 Wallflower on 03.15.19 at 5:19 pm

The changes won’t goose the market. The two overwhelming realities will take care of that:
one. immigrants are not staying in Canada like they used to stay (which trashes the immigrant argument for uppa uppa uppa)
two. the oversupply is YUGE and coming on the market as the flippers are now being chased for return of HST (new build specuvestors), and income and cap gains taxes
It’s over. Flatlining for years now.

#19 Politics on 03.15.19 at 5:27 pm

Getting elected where the means justifies the end, and any means will do. Your being thrown under the bus by a power hungry rogue government that has lost their way. Is this what you voted for? The citizens of Canada must wakeup or all will be lost.

#20 BlogDog123 on 03.15.19 at 5:34 pm

Morneau will have his new budget shoes, smiling with Trud’oh! holding the big budget book.

The budget will be peppered with all kinds of gender-based gobbledygook and enviro-nonsense with nary a thought of Alberta’s troubles.

Also in the budget will be many shiny baubles presented to the gullible serfs. Each entitlement will require many liberal-friendly bureaucrats or 3rd parties to administer.

Oh joy, it’s budget day…

#21 Ace Goodheart on 03.15.19 at 5:39 pm

Only one thing left to do…..print money.

The hole is insured by the govt.

To fill the hole, money must be printed.

And in the end, we just get inflation.

Lots and lots of inflation.

#22 Stan Brooks on 03.15.19 at 5:46 pm

Looking for sanity in a mental institution.

Trying to be polite when slapped in the face, with savings and pensions stolen by criminals and thieves.

When will the people learn?

Run as farther as you can and take all you money with you.

This place won’t be worth an used condom pretty soon.

#23 Spreadsheet Doc on 03.15.19 at 5:47 pm

Patiently waiting for that announcement on Tesla’s, i.e. electric car incentives. Subsidized vehicles and no more paying all the taxes on gas. I like it and just pay for it with a HELOC.

#24 Until tax do us part on 03.15.19 at 5:52 pm

I just got 46 cents on every dollar for my hard work recently, 54 cents on every dollar is cut as tax.

Does it make any sense at all ?

#25 Entrepreneur on 03.15.19 at 5:53 pm

“Is more debt the answer?” above article. Obviously we already know the answer by the mess we are in now.

And bubbles tank (“200 years of world bubble history shows…first sales tank, then prices fall.” VREU) first sales then prices which is happening now.

To add more fuel (lower interest rates to keep the housing more unaffordable) is only adding an explosion to the fire.

And the “prices keep falling until they reach the long-term mean…to income ratio is restored-and prices almost always overcorrect beyond this level.” VREU.

Which this all means to me for the last 200 years we have not learned from our past experiences and don’t want to. But keep pickling everyone, messing up their lives, and pretend this is the normal way of doing business here in Canada.

More debt is not the answer and the youth know it. What an insult to their intelligence, a slap in the face.

BTW, a month ago or so on the news the TSX moved up because of the Marijuana Stocks. Is it because it is Made-In Canada? And jobs increased in the marijuana field.

Start looking at creating not destroying Canada.

#26 Rargary on 03.15.19 at 5:58 pm

Maybe if they had started raising the interest rates years ago, all the sideshow b.s. and adding 30 yr amortization rates wouldnt be a reality… once again

#27 MF on 03.15.19 at 5:59 pm

#18 Wallflower on 03.15.19 at 5:19 pm

“one. immigrants are not staying in Canada like they used to stay ”

-Wrong, and I don’t know where this fake story keeps coming from.

Immigrant retention rate after 5 years in Ontario: 91%. Canada wide it’s 86%.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/181210/cg-a002-eng.htm

And the oversupply thing is a myth. Just look at rents in the GTA as an example why.

Hate to say it, but uppa uppa (that hurt).

MF

#28 I've actually noticed a few on 03.15.19 at 6:02 pm

sold signs out here in the LM. Haven’t seen one all winter around me.
Maybe rutting season will bring some more … time will tell.

#29 I’m stupid on 03.15.19 at 6:03 pm

I can tell you (being in residential construction) that the market in the gta is absolutely completely dead. I’ve even lost sleep over it and I’ve been preparing for this since 2009. I’ve never had fewer than 100 houses under contract, and usually do between 600-1000 houses a year. This year I’ve done 40 so far but the concerning thing is that I only have 20 or so houses in the pipeline. I’m down to bar bones, everyone is laid off. I’ve cut my spending to the absolute minimum, hopefully I saved enough to ride this out.

I have zero debt and my monthlies are equivalent to my wife’s salary. I still feel nervous going from a 1% earner to not know if I’ll average minimum wage this year. I can’t imagine what I would do if I was looking at a 3k or more a month mortgage payment. I can’t see anyway that the slowdown in residential construction doesn’t affect the broader economy, given how large a sector its become as a percentage of gdp over the last decade.

#30 dakkie on 03.15.19 at 6:09 pm

The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada Deflate

https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/the-most-splendid-housing-bubbles-in-canada-deflate/

#31 Jeremy Diamond on 03.15.19 at 6:15 pm

Yes, they were calls to action against Muslims and Jews. Hateful, vile. – Garth

Sad to say, we (Jewish people) have to clean anti-Semitic graffiti from our businesses and playgrounds because the City of Toronto takes very long to send their crew.

Our community centre in North Toronto had to install a grilled gate at the lawn because vandals were spraying Nazi slogans and symbols on the images that are placed on the lawns.

Bigots blame Jews, immigrants, Muslims and everyone else, but themselves. They actually lived in a time when houses in Toronto could be bought for $10,000. Many of the bigots could sell their houses and retire comfortably.

#32 pay your taxes on 03.15.19 at 6:19 pm

#6 aguyinvancouver

Unlike 1995, there is no Paul Martin in either major party to force us to take our medicine, that’s why it needs to come from outside.
xxx xxx

Nor to steal 28 billion from the federal worker’s pension plan. How much does that add up to @7% compounded interest? The courts backed him but what a blow to the plan. People who weren’t even born yet will be picking up the tab for that one.

#33 Paul on 03.15.19 at 6:26 pm

Wow Crestfallen i know it wasn’t good,but holy cow!
—————————————————————–
crest·fal·len
/ˈkres(t)ˌfôlən/
adjective
adjective: crestfallen

sad and disappointed.
“he came back empty-handed and crestfallen”
synonyms: downhearted, downcast, despondent, disappointed, disconsolate, disheartened, discouraged, dispirited, dejected, depressed, desolate, heartbroken, broken-hearted, heavy-hearted, low-spirited, in the doldrums, sad, glum, gloomy, dismal, doleful, miserable, unhappy, woebegone, forlorn, long-faced, fed up; abashed, taken aback, dismayed, sheepish, hangdog, abject, defeated;
informalblue, choked, shattered, down in the mouth, down in the dumps;
informalbrassed off, cheesed off;
literarydolorous;
archaicchapfallen
“he came back to his apartment empty-handed and crestfallen”

#34 Adrian on 03.15.19 at 6:32 pm

I agree with you, Garth. This doesn’t end well. Mortgage debt acceleration drives house prices, as Professor Steve Keen’s research has shown.

Here’s Canada:
https://goo.gl/images/xR5M2N

Australia:
https://goo.gl/images/qhzes4

The US:
https://goo.gl/images/xB8bXM

And domestic private “Credit” (i.e. year over year change in debt) correlates strongly with unemployment, at least countries where exports aren’t as big of a proportion of the economy, like the US (so I guess we better hope they don’t go into a recession soon):
https://goo.gl/images/BHN4Sk

It’s also worth pointing out recent research connecting economic Depressions with political extremism:
https://voxeu.org/print/63969?fbclid=IwAR2DwwQaHjbc9KuW7Op-CmhoxZkergraygaS3aoTwPOf_UnlK8zgUrzzzvI

From that last link:
“In cities without a prior history of anti-Semitism, the non-economic mechanism played no role. In other words, where hatred of Jews had no deep historical roots, there was no effect of the banking collapse on Nazi voting except through direct economic effects.”

#35 Figmund Sreud on 03.15.19 at 6:32 pm

Many must feel crestfallen. Betrayed, even.
__________________________

Well, … shirt happens. Not an uncommon occurrence when one considers our type of governing system. Word kakistocracy comes to mind, …

Anyway, … have a noticed that such a system (bad, bad neo-liberalism?) is quite capable of producing quite inferior economic results, … far more often than not. Just look, … look around the planet. With some frightening regularity it happens!

Best,

F.S. – Calgary, Alberta.

#36 TAX AND SPEND on 03.15.19 at 6:32 pm

If you really want the answer to why the Liberals want more debt personal and government you have to read
Alinskys 8 steps from democracy to socialist society. This has been promoted by Clinton and Obama. Do the read it will explain it all. this where we are headed.

#37 Paul on 03.15.19 at 6:35 pm

#24 Until tax do us part on 03.15.19 at 5:52 pm

I just got 46 cents on every dollar for my hard work recently, 54 cents on every dollar is cut as tax.

Does it make any sense at all ?
—————————————————————–Just let it go! or no soup for you. Just pay them taxes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lgC7z_vR78U
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lgC7z_vR78U

#38 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.15.19 at 6:37 pm

#4 Ubul on 03.15.19 at 3:37 pm
Thanks to the decline in overall real estate values – the first in a decade – Canadian families have lost $30,000,000,000. That’s thirty billion – compared to where things sat just a year ago.

==

Paper loss, unless sold, plus not all RE was purchased a year ago. At the same time rents in TO are all time high.
People are screwed either way, one can argue how one get screwed more, by owning or renting.
——
Paper loss. True.
But you forget the psychological “Wealth effect”.
When prices are rising, you feel wealthier and you’re more generous financially.
The opposite is true when prices are following.
You go from “You’re richer than you think” to “you’re poorer than you think”.

#39 Penny Henny on 03.15.19 at 6:42 pm

#3 catnogood on 03.15.19 at 3:35 pm
//////////////

love the name

#40 expat on 03.15.19 at 6:51 pm

Well what do we have

Massive unsustainable Personal Debt

Even Greater Multi-level Govt Debt

The decades long pigfest from Property taxes and fees which have created a public sector being paid far above the mean… This staggering differential has to revert to the mean as revenues collapse.

The real estate crash in price and sales will create a fiscal crisis at all levels of government

Yet no one talks about this.

Ponder the amount of money gets charged in real estate from sales fees to yearly property taxes that are assessed at levels far above the current sales prices.

You can easily see all levels of government is in serious serious trouble.

Think of the multiple places where these revenues play.
Truly scary where this country has gone…

#41 3s on 03.15.19 at 7:01 pm

Phew Garth, so we’re going to double down on what got us here? You know the definition of insanity right?

Surely the moisters must see through this….

#42 Asterix1 on 03.15.19 at 7:08 pm

These Moisters cannot be that dumb! I sure hope they smell the scam and stay clear from buying into a dead market.

T2 and Morneau are incompetent, bought off by RE cartel if they carry on their plans.

#43 ronnyteaser on 03.15.19 at 7:12 pm

First off …. Garth, for heaven’s sake, please turn on “threaded comments” on your blog. I have been asking for that for several years now. This would help sort the “chaff” from the “wheat”. You are making it so difficult to respond to those who are lacking in the “grey matter capital” arena.

Second, for those of us in the know, we will be happy to take financial advantage of the impending situation that you speak of. I am so tired of listening to the liberals/democrats who propose the redistribution of wealth yet take no action but continue coming up with ways to spend my money. Without apology, I spent my entire life focusing on ways to maximize my lot in life. You are NOT going to take that away from me.

Listen to the words of Robert Kiyosaki. “It’s the poor who are greedy!”.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e84BIlT3SwQ

#44 Westcoast Conspiracy Theorist on 03.15.19 at 7:14 pm

PacNet is a firm that was alleged to be involved in laundering the proceeds of lottery schemes in the United States, cheques from seniors written out to various scams and sent up, actually, to Vancouver, allegedly, to be processed. It’s listed as one of the top five transnational criminal organizations in the world by the Obama administration.

They were actually getting tax credits from Advantage B.C.”

#45 Friday Pink Slips on 03.15.19 at 7:17 pm

Moduline Penticton has laid off around 50 per cent of its staff after a slow winter building season in the housing sector.

The modular home company gave around 120 people two weeks’ notice of termination Thursday.

Have a nice weekend.

#46 Captain Uppa on 03.15.19 at 7:20 pm

… uppa

…….. Uppa

…………… UPPA!!!!!

#47 ron on 03.15.19 at 7:27 pm

DELETED

#48 Paul on 03.15.19 at 7:29 pm

#29 I’m stupid on 03.15.19 at 6:03 pm
I can’t see anyway that the slowdown in residential construction doesn’t affect the broader economy, given how large a sector its become as a percentage of gdp over the last decade.
——————————————————————–
I think real-estate is the broader economy, When it goes down it will take lots with it. So many things connected to the sale of a house.

#49 tccontrarian on 03.15.19 at 7:29 pm

“First the debt, 80% of which has been accumulated to buy residential real estate. The debt-to-disposable-income ratio now sits at 174%.” —
////////////////////////////////

I think that the US situation topped out at 167%, debt-to-income, or thereabouts. Who said Canadians couldn’t out-do our American cousins?

Coming up: Dumb and Dumber, the sequel… with a finance focus.

“Yes, but we don’t have sub-prime mortgages here” some will argue.
Well, does it matter??? We’re at 174% – and I don’t think it matters HOW we got there. We’re there…

TCC

#50 HowDeepThePain? on 03.15.19 at 7:31 pm

I love the…
“We Need To Boost Real Estate Sales”…I mean “We Need To Help Millennials buy Homes”

Take on more debt Millennials, boost property values. What’s the trick for the generation after Millennials?

#51 DQ on 03.15.19 at 7:34 pm

“Many must feel crestfallen. Betrayed, even.”
——————————————————
Only those who bought on emotion thinking they were either getting a sure thing, or were simply overcome by FOMO.

Either way, only those who foolishly bought the real estate equivalent of a 1983 Toyota Corolla for $800,000 are the ones who will DESERVEDLY be crestfallen.

The rest of us who have been saving judiciously and refusing to buy into a market with insanely inflated values are sleeping perfectly fine and waiting for the carnage to reach maximum. The greater fools will get what they deserve and the rest of us will be there to buy their failed RE investments for pennies on the dollar once they capitulate.

After watching real estate prices spiral beyond reach and out of control for the last 10-15 years, those of us that were excluded from the market are watching the real time crash with sheer glee. About time that house price to income ratios get back to a long term average and stop sitting at more than 2 standard deviations above the mean. So far we’re seeing a good start with a long way to go. Lookout below!

#52 david on 03.15.19 at 7:47 pm

And if amortizations don’t get changed on Tuesday, are you going to send us all $5 or, better yet, get better sources and admit you were played … You’ve clearly hung your hat and sold yourself that that one is coming..

prices have fallen a lot …. FROM ALL TIME HIGHS … Garth, you talk all the time about long term means, so, with your crack staff, please demonstrate that today’s prices ARE STILL HIGH compared to a long term mean that is set IGNORING THE PRICE INFLATION OF 2016 AND 2017. Prices falling from all time highs are a public policy problem… SERIOUSLY?

#53 espressobob on 03.15.19 at 7:57 pm

#3 catnogood

What is it with ailurophobes? Cats are people too.

#54 acdel on 03.15.19 at 8:02 pm

#29 I’m stupid

Thanks for your input. I am surprised that it has affected the greater GTA as it has. In the West it is a complete disaster. A friend of mine in his late fifties who was led to beleive that he would be promoted to managing crews in AB and Sask was telephoned last Sunday only to be told that they no longer need his services. They could not even do it face to face. He is devastated.

Great Blog Garth, we are hooped!

#55 Dolce Vita on 03.15.19 at 8:09 pm

1. When OSFI did their <5% down "B20" in Oct. 2016 and the results/efficacy of that came out in Jan. 2017 I knew then the writing was on the wall [slow growth or maybe even a recession-economy too FIRE dependent].

2. When the <20% down B20 guidelines came out in Oct. 2017, the FOMO before it, FIRE out of proportion in GDP, the 10% past 1984 – it took quite some time to dig out of that recession, well beyond its “official end date”.

So far batting 100% on predictions but that’s just experience is all BUT I want to be wrong on the WORSE part above – I would not wish that early 80’s recession on anybody.

It’s effects ran about 4 years including high levels of Unemployment.

Buonanotte from tech. recession Italia.

#56 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.15.19 at 8:11 pm

DELETED

#57 Dolce Vita on 03.15.19 at 8:12 pm

3rd attempt Garth…for some reason not posting completely…

1. When OSFI did their <5% down "B20" in Oct. 2016 and the results/efficacy of that came out in Jan. 2017 I knew then the writing was on the wall [slow growth or maybe even a recession-economy too FIRE dependent].

2. When the <20% down B20 guidelines came out in Oct. 2017, the FOMO before it, FIRE out of proportion in GDP, the 10% past 1984 – it took quite some time to dig out of that recession, well beyond its “official end date”.

So far batting 100% on predictions but that’s just experience is all BUT I want to be wrong on the WORSE part above – I would not wish that early 80’s recession on anybody.

It’s effects ran about 4 years including high levels of Unemployment.

Buonanotte from tech. recession Italia.

#58 Alex Jones on 03.15.19 at 8:13 pm

DELETED

#59 Bear Sand on 03.15.19 at 8:31 pm

“Many must feel crestfallen. Betrayed, even.”

———-

Why would they? They are oblivious to the paper loss now because they are enjoying their lives as owners – not hoping for a crash as a bitter renter or cashed our former owner hoping to re-enter the market when they think a bottom is in.

And after March 19th, once the Feds juice the market again, their paper equity positions will return as the new 30 year amortization will juice their properties back up.

Even you know this is totally predictable based on your last few posts – prices will rise, and all the sighing in the world will not change that.

Its game on for real estate in a few short days.

#60 n1tro on 03.15.19 at 8:40 pm

#43 ronnyteaser on 03.15.19 at 7:12 pm

Listen to the words of Robert Kiyosaki. “It’s the poor who are greedy!”.
———————-
That saying if it such a thing is so linear and paper thin like his self help book about being a landlord. Greed does not have to be money based. Rich people may not be financially greedy but they can be greedy for power. More specifically power to control others through the use of the money they have amassed.

The key in life is not to amass money but rather enjoy life amassing quality time with family and friends. Work just enough to contribute and be comfortable and save some aside if you have kids so they have a decent start.

If you are successful at what you do, consider giving a good chunk of it away to help others. Don’t be like these billionaires who are on death’s door promising to give away their wealth thinking it washes away a lifetime of making others suffer in a feable attempt to buy that ticket to heaven.

#61 Lisa on 03.15.19 at 8:52 pm

What makes having at least a half million in debt so appealing to so many?? Why would anyone even think of buying right now?

#62 Rexx Rock on 03.15.19 at 8:55 pm

I know it seems everyone is concerned about real estate and mortgage rates.Have no fear,I’ve said some wild stuff before like 1.99% fixed mortgage rates and guess what happened?Well my next prediction is 30-40 year fixed interest rates under 1%.Just like Japan! All first homebuyers will not have to pay land transfer tax.All helocs will be 0.5% or less.Carbon tax will be a killer,10 cents to 15 cents a year increase a year will be common.Working fulltime and part time job will be the only way for many to survive in the next few years for many people.Lets all sing O Canada!

#63 45north on 03.15.19 at 9:43 pm

The budget on Tuesday, says the government, will goad more young people into buying real estate by increasing mortgage amortization.

you’ve got to see this for what it is. It’s not that hundreds of thousands of young people are suddenly going to appear and buy real estate. They’re not. It’s hundreds of thousands of existing home owners hope they will. This is the vote the Liberals are after – existing home owners. Now I’m thinking that, the budget will bring maybe 250 young people into the market, across the country. Ain’t no big deal.

The question is what’s the opposition’s play? Door number one, would be to attack the budget and say it doesn’t allow young people to buy what they need. The opposition would say, we would do the same thing only bigger. Door number two, would be to attack the budget as offering nothing. Housing is unaffordable, because it costs too much. When it comes down, people will buy it.

#64 Lead Paint on 03.15.19 at 9:52 pm

What happened to Trumpocalypse2019 tonight?

Perhaps they got hit by a bus or fell down a well… they’ve been predicting something dire.

#65 OffshoreObserver on 03.15.19 at 9:53 pm

This post makes two complaints against BIG BANKS:

1/ Why can you not provide me with historic transaction data in electronically legible form but insist that you can only provide hardcopies of statements?

An account holder should have access to his and related company data in [“CSV”] Comma-Separated-Value format.

Despite Garth’s position on the matter, I want to experiment with crypto.

2/ Guess what happens when I try to buy some with Visa?

https://sillybuggarsrugby.biz/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/TD-VISA-FEAR.png

#66 Chaddywack on 03.15.19 at 10:08 pm

@11 any replies?

#67 Remembrancer on 03.15.19 at 10:21 pm

#53 espressobob on 03.15.19 at 7:57 pm
#3 catnogood

What is it with ailurophobes? Cats are people too.
—————————————————-
Only if they’re Nastassja Kinski, or maybe Simone Simon. Or even Malcolm McDowell if you are so inclined…

#68 Vampire Studies on 03.15.19 at 10:27 pm

51 DQ

“After watching real estate prices spiral beyond reach and out of control for the last 10-15 years, those of us that were excluded from the market are watching the real time crash with sheer glee.”

Why were you “excluded”? You made a choice not to buy into what you feel was an overvalued market. What did the people who did buy recently gain? Epic debt? A boat anchor that chains them to a job and lifestyle they can’t leave?

I trust you have saved and invested wisely, and hence will have a small canoe load of cash to buy with. But it
is still a choice you will have to make. What if you buy in and the RE markets drops further, or doesn’t
appreciate for years? How will you feel then?

Wishing for this really just makes you look envious. You’ve done without owning a house for this long and
sounds like you’ve done just fine.

#69 Ace Goodheart on 03.15.19 at 10:32 pm

Governments are made up of rich folks’ children.

Rich folk don’t like working. They don’t have to. They earn their money off of capital gains and dividends. They tax themselves less than everyone else (that is why you pay less tax on capital gains (50% versus full marginal) and dividends (fat tax credit).

Rich folk like it when everyone else is doing the following:

1. Working full time

2. Buying consumer goods

3. Paying taxes

4. Paying interest on debt

The above four items are necessary in order to create and maintain class distinction in any society. Take away any one of them, and class distinction will fall away, and we’re all equal again.

In order for there to be an upper class, the rest of us (99%) must always be:

1. Working (producing, for the benefit of the wealthy, who sell the products we make).

2. Buying consumer goods (that the rest of us make, sold to us at a mark up, by the wealthy).

3. Paying taxes – taxation is a wealth transfer. It keeps us from ever approaching the status of the wealthy. The more you make, the more they take, up to 54% of your income. If you work for a living, you will never ever join the ranks of the uber wealthy. Taxation will stop you.

And the govt will take your tax money, and literally give it to the upper classes. They will gift it to large corporations, as “job creation” money and such. The CEOs will get big bonuses that year.

4. Paying interest on debt – the single most important factor of the four. 99% of the population must be forever engulfed in debt. They let banks lend money they don’t even have. Just “credit notations”. This person owes that bank this much. The most important thing in a class based society, is that 99% of us must be in debt for life. We can never, ever, ever pay our debts off.

Any class based society that allows its 99% to pay off its debts and become debt free, will ultimately fail.

You have to keep the 99% working. The only way to ensure that, is to hold the knife over their heads. Keep them in debt. Threaten to take their houses away, if they don’t pay every month. Threaten to destroy their lives. Keep them working at all costs.

They can never, ever, ever pay off their debts.

Ever……

#70 Ex-Cowtown on 03.15.19 at 10:36 pm

#4 Ubul on 03.15.19 at 3:37 pm
Thanks to the decline in overall real estate values – the first in a decade – Canadian families have lost $30,000,000,000. That’s thirty billion – compared to where things sat just a year ago.

==

Paper loss, unless sold, plus not all RE was purchased a year ago
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Not how it works. HELOC. Equity drops. Bank asks for some or all of the $$ back.

Repeat as needed.

Unwoke people seem to think that EVERYONE needs to get into trouble before something bad happens. In the US only 10% of the homeowners got into trouble and that almost cratered their economy.

with 40% of people within $200/month of not making ends meet we’re probably 1/3 of the way to the Magic 10% right now. By the end of the year 2/3….

#71 n1tro on 03.15.19 at 10:39 pm

#65 OffshoreObserver on 03.15.19 at 9:53 pm
This post makes two complaints against BIG BANK

Despite Garth’s position on the matter, I want to experiment with crypto.

2/ Guess what happens when I try to buy some with Visa?

https://sillybuggarsrugby.biz/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/TD-VISA-FEAR.png
———————
They claim it is for our protection. Because people with good credit that pay their balances on time will lose all control when they get a whiff of the 1s and 0s of the fake money backed by nothing ponzi scheme Bitcoin. Banks only ever have their customers best interest at heart!

As for getting into crypto quick, try shakepay app. Ran by a bunch of jokers in QC I believe. You EMT them money to a personal Gmail account and they verify manually. Part of their due diligence is making sure the name appearing on the EMT email matches the ID that you supplied. Yeah, the from field in the bank setting where you can change it to whatever you want (now you understand why I call them jokers if you didn’t catch the part where they get you to send to a personal email to avoid EMT fees). After they “verified” the money came from you, they credit the deposit in the app and you can convert it to BTC or ETH immediately. This takes a few hours during business hours. Then you can send the funds to a different wallet. Fees for them are super cheap. 2% I think. Coinbase fees border on robbery.

#72 georgist on 03.15.19 at 10:53 pm

> Canadian families have lost $30,000,000,000.

No, that was marked to market. Which is mark to fantasy.

They didn’t have it before. They didn’t realise it. They don’t have it now.

This is why bankers give out fiat whilst they only accept brandy. You get the paper, they get the stuff.

#73 georgist on 03.15.19 at 10:54 pm

Mark – agreed, once debt saturation occurs the BoC is pushing on a string. They cannot create demand for debt.

#74 georgist on 03.15.19 at 10:57 pm

> I just got 46 cents on every dollar for my hard work recently, 54 cents on every dollar is cut as tax.

> Does it make any sense at all ?

Nope. It’s discouraging you from creating more value.

The govt should *not* tax labour at all.

The govt should tax access to the common wealth: land.

Are you going to have less land if you tax it? No

Are you going to work less if you get taxed too much? Yes

No deadweight loss on Land Value Tax.

#75 Bobby on 03.15.19 at 11:13 pm

No, Mr Morneau, more debt is not the answer. However, to which he responds, we need to get re-elected. That is what this is all about.
It doesn’t have to make sense. Rather it has to divert voters attention away from our weak and bumbling PM and his disasterous policies and focus their attention on goodies for which they believe they will benefit. Who cares about SNC Lavalin when something will supposedly be free. It doesn’t matter if someone else is paying.
Regardless that the Liberal party is buying votes with taxpayers’ own money, it is getting re-elected that counts.
Sadly, voters get what they deserve.

#76 Mathemagician on 03.15.19 at 11:49 pm

Everyone calm down! Through the wonders of MMT (modern monetary theory) we are simply going to add a zero to the end (the right hand end) of all currency and thus all will be solved! You’re 10 times richer than you think! So go ahead and buy, young millennial, remember when your grand parents bought a house they paid $20,000 for it and it is now worth $whoknows, maybe a million. There is no reason to think it stops here.

Here is the slight of hand: All governments that run deficits, whether in war times or in peace, must print up money to pay their debts. As they do so the dollar goes down in purchasing power, and the value of assets go up! It’s magic! Get on board!

There is a very real reason that dollar coins used to be made of silver, but now they are made of zinc and an old time silver dollar can be worth $20, much more if it’s rare. At some point in about the same distance into the future, it will be too expensive to make a dollar coin out of zinc, as the zinc will be worth $20 and silver will be worth $400. Plan accordingly!

It’s magic!

Over the long term, the amount that the government borrows is directly related to how much the purchasing power of that government’s currency declines. That trend is unavoidable because of how the money is created. The government prints up a bunch of bonds, and the banks including the central bank print up a bunch of money to buy them. It’s all legit because the banks have the bonds to back the currency. But there is still a lot more of it. So they can literally absolve themselves of prior debts by borrowing more! No more magical system has ever been created!

#77 Russ on 03.16.19 at 1:19 am

OffshoreObserver on 03.15.19 at 9:53 pm

This post makes two complaints against BIG BANKS:

An account holder should have access to his and related company data in [“CSV”] Comma-Separated-Value format.

Despite Garth’s position on the matter, I want to experiment with crypto.

2/ Guess what happens when I try to buy some with Visa?

https://sillybuggarsrugby.biz/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/TD-VISA-FEAR.png
=======================

It looks like there may be a notice from them soon:

“Dear Mr. McCormach near Davies Street, downtown Vancouver. Your Visa card, number 1520 0032 0861 1135 CVC 578 may be compromised.
Please us call at once.”

#78 Ustabe on 03.16.19 at 1:56 am

Corned beef’s only reason to exist is to be seasoned, smoked and steamed into pastrami.

I can fight anyone who would disagree.

#79 Boots on the ground in Ptown on 03.16.19 at 2:08 am

I’m stupid &

Penticton moduline poster
______________
Great color both posts. This is what sort of comments I’m most interested in. Color, people!

Also in construction, but located stateside. Acquaintence who designs kitchens for big builder in the area. Few months ago mentioned she usually does 5-6 month and was recently told to plan for 4 per. Commercial contracts have taken thru with hubby’s line of work, one investor who bought the old IP paper mill in Reedsport Oregon had is so some exploratory quotes in Dec.v he also owned the site of Blue Heron mill in Milwaukie Oregon on the river with big plans for waterfront revitalization etc. As well as the old Tumwater brewery location that’s being turned into apartments and some retail. Recently v heard nothing but crickets on Reedsport until today when heard he sold both Oregon projects. And Reedsport was already in the works to. The shellfish farming facility that was imagine, proposed. Just a bit of local color I guess. Also bought a couch off a gal last summer who’s bought a historical green in Portland, built turn off century, one of the cities big lumber barons originally. I think she’d bought in 2013 and it was being taken by the bank after no sale long on market . And price reductions. Regards

#80 Nonplused on 03.16.19 at 2:11 am

I’ve suddenly had an epiphany. And it’s a big one so brace yourself for it. You might need a seat belt.

Every road we drive on, most bike paths, and many driveways, are intentional oil spills. “Asphalt” is heavy oil mixed with gravel. And we put it everywhere. It’s right outside your house. Go over there and touch it.
So let that sink in for a minute before we go further.

So, if we have paved so much land with asphalt, why is a small spill from an oil pipeline such a big deal? Just dig the dirt up and pave a road with it.

Something must be terribly wrong with our comprehension of things when we conclude that it is perfectly acceptable to put an asphalt road through a national park but we can’t build a pipeline that goes around it. I mean how can that be, people? We’ve already dumped tons upon tons of oil on the park via building the road and we think a pipeline that might maybe one day leak but all possible preventions are being taken is the real problem?

It is clear evidence. Roads = oil on the ground. Pipelines = oil not on the ground. We have become so incapable of thinking that it is simply stunning.

Did you protest the oil pipelines but also get your driveway “sealed” this year? You just created a small oil spill for your own benefit. (If any, I think sealing your driveway is a scam, better to save your money and have a new “lift” of asphalt put on when necessary).

Fact of the matter is folks, when you drive on a road or use a bike path, you have already spilled much more oil on the ground than a pipeline ever will. Our thinking is so screwed up.

Asphalt is gravel mixed with heavy oil, and we put it everywhere. The largest “oil spill” that ever occurred by far was the paving of roads. How are we so incapable of putting these things in perspective???

Water based spills are a different matter, which is why we should be using pipelines and not water born tankers.

#81 Jay Currie on 03.16.19 at 3:11 am

Chaddywack, not a one from the agent. But I did not really expect a reply from that quarter. Several from POed renters who liked the approach.

It is going to take a while for the 3% of assessed value tax to filter through to the offshore owners. But a $150,000 a year on a 5 million assessed value will have an impact and, all of a sudden, decent tenants are going to command a premium: about $12,500 a month.

#82 Hamsterwheelie on 03.16.19 at 5:52 am

Spoke to dad yesterday – no he didn’t read the two articles I sent about folks retiring debt and living off interest after selling their home.
He says ‘where am I gonna rent?’ I says ‘ya haven’t even been looking’ he says ‘lotsa people have money in the city to buy this property for a million whenever I feel like selling’ so I says…
‘Not if the value of their home has dropped and no one is buying!’
Dad has savings that are equal to his HELOC and no mortgage (except the heloc is like a small mortgage in his case) and it keeps going up because his oas isn’t covering basic costs.
There seems to be no fire we can put under him to sell while the value is fairly high – lives in an average house that’s too big for him & too much land to maintain but its in a prime tourist area on pristine lakefront.
This is a super conservative guy that was panicking 11 years ago when we bought our house for $160,000 on a variable rate mortgage of 3.5%, a guy who has some ultra conservative investments at 4% interest, who nickel and dimes food and clothing, doesn’t turn up the heat or turn on the lights….but willing to gamble on the house because I think he just doesn’t feel like moving? Trying to get to the bottom of it but I’m having trouble understanding his choices. Anyone wanna throw me some numbers to help?

#83 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.16.19 at 7:08 am

@#82 hamsterwheelie
“he just doesn’t feel like moving? ”

*****

That , in a nutshell sums it up.

Show him a spreadsheet with the numbers.
Unfortunately, it probably wont make a difference.
Curmudgeon is as curmudgeon does.

#84 Ex-Trump on 03.16.19 at 8:22 am

It is clear evidence. Roads = oil on the ground. Pipelines = oil not on the ground. We have become so incapable of thinking that it is simply stunning.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Ban roads! I’ve noticed that 100% of people who voted for Trump have used a road in the past three years.

Road use = Trump victory.

Get rid of roads, get rid of Trump. Simple!

Of course what I said above is in jest, but that same level of cognitive dissonant logic is used by the Global Warming Socialists to attempt to stop us from building pipelines. Their arguments are merely word salad that make no sense. Except to Trudeau; he’s fluent in Word Salad.

#85 Steven Rowlandson on 03.16.19 at 8:33 am

Don’t worry about the howling.
There will be plenty of it if and when every one has to wake up and smell the coffee.

#86 Gordon on 03.16.19 at 8:41 am

Heros and villians, who are they in Canada? Recently the villianous nature of Trudeau’s Liberals, treasonous scofflaws and bullies. Trudeau, according to the collective work of scholars , journalists and corporations, has sold Canada out to an array of American nastys who seek to use Canada’s political capital against Trump and competitors in the energy complex. According to the investigative work of Vivienne Krausse, Trudeau is a traitor in the pay of both American and Chinese billionaires. It’s obvious Trudeau is a villian.

Do are there any heros? It appears that there are Canadians who fighting for Canadian values. They’re dug in and tenacious against a much larger and very deadly enemy. There’s been a lot of comments about immigrants being a drag on the taxpayer and how Trudeau has weaponized immigration as a tool to cut Canada’s throat. But here’s a group that doesn’t take, they give, without recognition or fanfare.

These secret Patriots offer no religious lessons, demand nothing, and have integrated at great personal peril. Guess who they are.

https://nationalpost.com/news/do-not-be-afraid-as-beijing-flexes-its-muscle-groups-teach-canadian-values-to-chinese-immigrants

#87 Remembrancer on 03.16.19 at 8:54 am

#82 Hamsterwheelie on 03.16.19 at 5:52 am

Unfortunately logic and numbers alone won’t solve it as there is a ton of emotion wrapped up in a move like this…

Two suggestions – find out what the primary anchor is, e.g. workshop & tools, family pet, walking the land, or simple stubbornness and work out what the best solution will be and sell him on a specific. Is it a care home situation, living with you, rental condo in a wrinkly building etc etc?

Its not going to be a simple process if he’s dug in hard, but give choices and specifics b/c at the end of the day, there’s a common fear of change and loss of freedoms wrapped up in this along with whatever other emotional baggage is specific to him, and you over this.

#88 Leo Trollstoy on 03.16.19 at 9:00 am

Homeowners never sell their primary residence

They die in them

Then the kids sell it

And repeat the cycle

The poor stay poor

#89 Penny Henny on 03.16.19 at 9:03 am

#82 Hamsterwheelie on 03.16.19 at 5:52 am
Spoke to dad yesterday ….but willing to gamble on the house because I think he just doesn’t feel like moving? Trying to get to the bottom of it but I’m having trouble understanding his choices. Anyone wanna throw me some numbers to help?

////////////

It’s not about numbers. Most old people don’t want to move

#90 Scary Stuff on 03.16.19 at 9:06 am

As our esteemed blog host, he of the wavy, coiffed, adorned, epic, sculpted, and wondrous-to-behold body parts and being the gracious, wise, and omniscient more-than-mere-mortal stud has made clear lo these many years, there is a serious problem. The 174 percent ratio of debt to income is just the middle of the curve of death that is at the heart of this dilemma. The curve of course is the Gaussian distribution or bell curve. And ask not for whom this bell tolls as we are all going to be affected when it rings out our doom.

At the toxic end of this deadman’s curve is the foul realm of the 450 percenters, those wretched, perhaps-to-be-hammered sods who will never, ever get out from under the yoke of their own devising (the yolks on them). May the great Bow Wow in the sky have mercy on them. Their lenders won’t that’s for damn sure.

#91 Another Deckchair on 03.16.19 at 9:21 am

@80 NonPlussed;

Add in the fact that used motor oil has been added to asphalt in many areas, and you have lighter oil spread all over the place by the millions of litres.

And, where does the “rubber” tire particles go when tires wear?

(Asphalt with used motor oil gives some issues; it reduces strength which is why some cities have banned it – costs more to patch roads – not because of environmental issues)

#92 dharma bum on 03.16.19 at 9:30 am

#24 Until tax do us part

I just got 46 cents on every dollar for my hard work recently, 54 cents on every dollar is cut as tax.

Does it make any sense at all ?
——————————————————————-

Sure it makes sense……in this whacky pseudo-capitalist freakshow of a country we live in.

Don’t you realize that it is your personal obligation to line the pockets of the public sector pension funds, special interest groups, wasteful social programs, politicians, civil servants, welfare cheats, baby-mamas, the lazy, the ignorant, the disenfranchised, and anyone who doesn’t work as much as you do or earn as much money as you do?

Welcome to Canada.

Home of the slave.

#93 Hobie McFreund on 03.16.19 at 9:33 am

Another income tax cut coming for Trudeau’s middle class?

For the 40% who already pay no tax? – Garth

#94 Semi Retired Conservative on 03.16.19 at 10:22 am

Here is one for you Garth. I wouldn’t normally indulge your dog fetish (cats rule !!) but I know that you also share a passion for history and humour. Enjoy.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D1sYYtlW0AENImb.jpg

#95 Gov’t worker in BC on 03.16.19 at 11:07 am

Comments like the one in post #40 reflect a general lack of understanding of how property tax rates are set. It has more to do on relative values vs neighboring properties than simply overall assessment. After all if the budget for the municipality is $5,000,000 (for example) that’s the amount needed, regardless of property values. Watch this one minute video:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=u-chntTWjps

#96 Government worker in BC on 03.16.19 at 11:34 am

Better video explaining relationship between property values and tax rates:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=GJ1mzeCm5jw&time_continue=107

#97 45north on 03.16.19 at 11:44 am

Hilliard MacBeth: talking about young people who would buy real estate with 30-year mortgages:

On a $500,000 mortgage loan at 4 percent, the total interest over a 30-year term equals $460,643, almost doubling the original purchase price. How does that help the “first-time buyer” in getting more affordable housing? The only people who are helped in that scenario are home sellers and lenders who collect the interest.

In the article, MacBeth quotes Jeremy Rudin, the head of OSFI. I see him as having a new found independence. Justin Trudeau would have a very hard time overruling him.

https://www.howestreet.com/2019/03/15/leave-the-canadian-housing-correction-alone/

#98 LP on 03.16.19 at 11:50 am

#82 Hamsterwheelie on 03.16.19 at 5:52 am

First, remember he is your father…your FATHER, for goodness sake. Show some respect instead of making him sound like an intransigent old cuss. And you want numbers? Show him YOUR numbers if you have invested funds. Put them on paper. Leave the papers with him along with a promise to return to answer questions.

Then spend some of your own time finding suitable rental accommodation in his neighbourhood, town or city. And it better be better than the house he clings to. And the advice from another poster about the special-ness of his house – the workroom, hobby room, garden – whatever it is…can something like it be found at a rental? A large balcony that gets sun can allow for container gardening. An extra bedroom in a rental can be a workroom or hobby room, minus power tools and their noise.

Devote several weekends to helping him sort out a different room or space in his house/garage so it’s broken down into manageable blocks of time and work. He can’t or won’t do it by himself. Even if he doesn’t move, that will have to be done sometime anyway; why not do it when he’s around to be part of the decision making?

At the end, you might simply have to accept the fact he doesn’t trust your judgement or doesn’t want to accept your advice. Some men are like that.

#99 PBrasseur on 03.16.19 at 12:05 pm

When is the last time you saw politicians kill a real estate bubble, seriously when?

Never happens because getting re-elected is more important than doing the right thing.

#100 PBrasseur on 03.16.19 at 12:13 pm

If the masses stop borrowing governments will have to borrow even more to compensate in order to keep the economy afloat.

Welfare state as we know it is unsustainable but count on politicians to stretch it to the very limit. That’s what all budgets are about these days.

Canada is in a very bad place as is much of Europe. House of cards will collapse, only a matter of when.

#101 Midnights on 03.16.19 at 2:14 pm

Listen to the words of Robert Kiyosaki. “It’s the poor who are greedy!

I watched that interview when it first came out.
Great interview!!!
You can see it in full at London Real.

#102 charles on 03.16.19 at 2:24 pm

It is unbelievable what this government is doing. Government is addicted to debt more than a morphine addicted. Houses in canada will never go down. It is a fact.

#103 Midnights on 03.16.19 at 2:26 pm

#60 n1tro on 03.15.19 at 8:40 pm
#43 ronnyteaser on 03.15.19 at 7:12 pm

Listen to the words of Robert Kiyosaki. “It’s the poor who are greedy!”.
———————-
Listen to the entire interview not what was just posted. Also, telling someone what to do with their wealth is just, wrong.
As Jim Rohn said, make it and if “you” don’t like it give it away.

#104 Mike on 03.16.19 at 4:32 pm

“But, Mr. Morneau. Is more debt the answer?”

Is asking someone born into privilege really the answer? Is allowing two silver spooned morons to run a county really the answer?

Morneau and Trudeau know something most of us don’t, that governments around the world are straining under the ever expanding stress of bloated social programs, burgeoning public debt and a shrinking workforce.

The riots in France (now in their 17th week) aren’t about a gas tax, they’re a revolt against socialism. Coming soon to a neighborhood near you.

#105 maxx on 03.16.19 at 8:12 pm

@ #37:

Well…come the 21st October at the voting booth –

@ 45 seconds:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OOIGCyAR-0w

#106 Looney Baloney on 03.16.19 at 8:18 pm

#77

Christopher Boyd McConnell actually.
https://www.linkedin.com/in/sillybuggars

Some people should not be allowed near a computer, let alone buy crypto.

#107 Steven Rowlandson on 03.17.19 at 9:40 am

Government debt and the desire to contract it is a disease like aids. The pleasure of getting it is dubious if not transitory and the ultimate outcome is death one way or an other.

AIDS can be contracted in various ways, including birth. It is highly manageable and normally no longer lethal. – Garth