The journey

One credo of this blog, hotly disputed by the equity cowboys who storm it, is that you should eschew stocks. Yup, no individual companies in the average portfolio. Too much risk, danger and volatility.

And here is today’s example, bred of the weekend tragedy in Africa.

As trading opened in New York Monday morning the Dow briefly shed about 200 points based on one industry – airlines – and a single company. Shares in Boeing (the market’s most heavily-weighted stock)  tanked in pre-opening more than 12% on news its hot new airplane, the 737 Max, had fallen from the sky. Twice in recent months. Eerily similar events. And brand new planes aren’t supposed to do that.

Boeing has more than 5,000 orders for this machine, of which only 350 have been delivered (more than 10% of those deliveries were to Air Canada and Westjet). Now every hour or two another airline announces it has decided to ground its fleet. This could be a corporate disaster. The 737 is the best-selling plane. Ever. And the Max 8 version is supposed to be better – new engines swallowing 14% less fuel. Just what airlines want. So the orders poured in. A third of them going to China – where the planes are sitting on the tarmac.

But this is not an aviation blog. No idea if the twin crashes were unrelated flukes, or if this airliner’s corrupted. The point is Boeing investors were whacked as they slept Sunday might, and the company was stressed. Do you really want that kind of volatility in your portfolio?

By the way, when the market opened Monday Boeing was off 11.3%. An ETF holding the broader US market was up 0.5%. When the day was done the stock had shed 5% while the fund gained 1.5%. See what I mean? Don’t be a cowboy.

       

And what of the economic prospects going forward? US job numbers last Friday shocked a lot of people , falling off a cliff (even though wages saw a big hike). The US-Kim summit was a total flub. Trade talks with China seemed to have stalled. Government deficits in Canada and the States are pitiful. Central banks are now backing off on monetary policy because of an accelerating global slowdown. After all, Beijing just reported the lowest growth forecast in three decades.

Meanwhile stock markets have charged out of the gate in 2019, posting double-digit returns over the course of less than three months. What should an investor do? Buy more? Retreat? Sell into strength? Buy into a dip?

Answer: for most people, do nothing. If you have the proper balance, diversification and correct weightings (spelled out here a few days ago), sit tight and binge Netflix, not the market. But if you can’t do that and check Dow futures on your phone under the covers, here’s some advice from US brokers Pennock:

Our base-case scenario calls for a correction of 1–3 months in duration, but without a re-test of the December lows. The depth of the pullback will be a function of any growth scare and the details of the U.S.-China trade agreement. We have written before that we are both bullish and bearish on different time frames, and current circumstances suggest different positioning for traders and investors. Traders with time horizons of up to three months should be tilted bearishly, and be prepared to sell or short into market strength. On the other hand, longer-term oriented investors should view any market weakness as an opportunity to deploy funds into equities in anticipation of higher prices later in the year.

There ya go. Ignore the noise, as you were asked to do here last Christmas when the world was ending.

         

On an entirely different note, here’s a tough email from Carol in Oakville:

“Garth, I know you care about animals and I have a question that must be answered now. I have just been told I am dying of pancreatic cancer with just a few months left (yes, like Alex Trebek, but not so brave or hopeful). My golden, Kelsey, will outlive me by many years and I am sick with sorry about what will happen to her, as I am single and have no children. Cannot bear the thought of her going to the pound and being alone in a cage, maybe being put down. Can you help me?”

Awful news, Carol. We all die, but few are ready. So sorry your time is being cut short. You’re kind to think of Kelsey, and there are some options. One of my corporate colleagues, Janet Mason, has recently written about a few. First, remember that leaving money to Kelsey is a non-starter since the law considers her property. So a human element is required.

The best choice would be to find a guardian, appoint that person in your will then leave money in the form of a legacy to care for the pooch. If this is a friend or neighbour, how about having Kelsey stay over for a number of days and nights soon to make sure things go smoothly, and she gets familiar with a second/new home?

You could leave your executor with the job of deciding how much money should be dispensed to the guardian for the dog’s lifetime care. “You may also choose to discuss including provisions in your Continuing/Enduring Power of Attorney for Property about your pet,” Janet adds, “such as appointing a guardian and permitting reimbursement for pet care and related costs.” Additionally, there’s the option of setting up a non-charitable trust, or of contacting the local Humane Society or SPCA to see if they will care for Kelsey until a home home is found. Perhaps you could start that process now – although I’m sure you will need her touch until the end.

A wise man once said: “If there are no dogs in Heaven, then when I die I want to go where they went.” Me, too.

125 comments ↓

#1 Victoria Real Estate Update on 03.11.19 at 4:47 pm

REALTOR MAGIC

It is beyond ridiculous that the results of the Victoria board’s “benchmark” home price index are allowed to be published. Yet each month the media publishes this misleading housing market information.

And realtors on this site quickly rush to defend the “benchmark” index any time somebody posts valid price information that disagrees with its cooked up results that have nothing to do with reality.

Absolutely nothing about its methodology suggests that its results are anywhere near valid. On top of that, realtors are the ones in charge of using it to calculate its results. How does any of that bring about honest and valid results? It doesn’t.

Victoria board admits that their “benchmark” home price index uses (fake or imaginary) “notional” homes:

“At the heart of the (realtor benchmark price index) HPI is the concept of the “benchmark” home, a notional (imaginary or fake) home…”

“The benchmark home does not represent any actual house…” – Victoria’s R/E board, Feb. 3, 2014

A single sale in the month of February and a total of 6 sales in the last 3 months isn’t nearly enough sales to be able to accurately gauge how much Oak Bay condo prices have increased or decreased over the last 12 months. But that’s exactly the kind of thing the Victoria R/E board claims to be able to do with its “benchmark” index.

So with only 6 sales over the last 3 months, the local board claims that Oak Bay condo prices have increased 16% year-over-year. And realtors on this site will undoubtedly claim that this result is 100% accurate and valid.

Year-over-year price comparisons are more accurate with more sales. 6 sales in 3 months isn’t enough to produce an accurate result.

On the other hand, if we consider that 39 Saanich East single family homes sold in February 2019 and 61 over the past 2 months, we can use those 61 sales to get a general idea of the year-over-year price change of Saanich East SFHs.

Saanich East SFHs
Average price increase/decrease
Year-over-year:

Feb. 2019: prices down – 21%
Jan. 2019: prices down – 14%
(Source: Victoria’s R/E board)

Realtors will try to discredit this valuable price information by (incorrectly) claiming that the stress test caused a “radical change in the sales mix”. However this claim is easily proven wrong.

The stress test came into effect on January 1, 2018. This means that all of the sales used to find February’s – 21% price decline and January’s – 14% yoy price decline were from after the stress test was implemented. Most sales in January 2018 would have been affected by the stress test and February 2018 would have had a higher percentage of sales affected by the stress test.

So comparing 61 (stress test) sales in January and February 2019 to the (stress test ) sales in January and February 2018 gives us a decent idea of what SFH prices have done over the past year in Saanich East.

And Saanich East’s year-over-year SFH price decline isn’t -2%. Obviously any results from the Victoria board’s “benchmark” price index can be dismissed. Comparing home sales to a fake house can’t produce real price change results.

#2 Davv on 03.11.19 at 4:47 pm

Heavy. Carol in Oakville – you are kind to think of your rare pupper. No easy form of words for your final days – do not let yourself feel guilt for the range of emotions or actions you feel/take. All the best.

#3 The Wet One on 03.11.19 at 4:58 pm

Good advice on the what to do about the pet being left behind.

Given the number of singles and the love of pets these day, that advice will be very useful to a whole lot of people.

#4 mitzerboyakaQueencitykidd on 03.11.19 at 5:04 pm

Having a Dog will bless you with many of the happiest
days of your life, and one of the worst.

No matter how little money and how few possessions
you own, having a dog makes you rich.

Good luck Carol on your next journey.

#5 Yellow Vest on 03.11.19 at 5:10 pm

CORRECTION: The North Korea talks were not a total flub. BOTH leaders went didn’t they? More than you can say about any other President in the last 60 years.

Yes, and the stature of the US was bestowed upon a cruel 3rd-world dictator. The world is likely less stable as a result. – Garth

#6 TRUDEAU THE CHEATER on 03.11.19 at 5:14 pm

The world is catching on!!!!
Trudeau is a cooked goose…

https://www-m.cnn.com/2019/03/09/opinions/trudeau-lavallin-scandal-analysis-intl/index.html?r=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnn.com%2F

#7 Canadian Infidels on 03.11.19 at 5:37 pm

DELETED

#8 Remembrancer on 03.11.19 at 5:46 pm

For Carol in Oakville, such as sad story and brave to be thinking of Kelsey… If all else fails, there are reputable private dog rescue groups in GTA who I couldn’t imagine turning the pooch away either – may be alternative to SPCA who are cash strapped depending on where located not a knock on them though…

Great point about spelling this type of stuff out in a PoA before its needed too…

#9 BC_Doc on 03.11.19 at 5:48 pm

“Meanwhile stock markets have charged out of the gate in 2019, posting double-digit returns over the course of less than three months. What should an investor do? Buy more? Retreat? Sell into strength? Buy into a dip?”

My answer is “rebalance.”

Re: Carol. Carol, sorry for the aweful news. I wonder if one of Garth’s readers might be interested in adopting your pooch when the time comes? Garth’s blog is a favourite of dog lovers. All the best. BC Doc

#10 Jo on 03.11.19 at 5:50 pm

Carol is why I annoy people everyday with saying it could be worse and be grateful it’s not. Carol I’m sure have but please make sure you have the max home care you’re entitled plus any hours through cancer society including care giver respite and relief. Contact your local CCAC and or hospice and they’ll help. I wish you comfort, peace and some laughter everyday.

#11 Rick on 03.11.19 at 5:56 pm

Yes, and the stature of the US was bestowed upon a cruel 3rd-world dictator. The world is likely less stable as a result. – Garth
WRONG!!! Ask the Japanese. No rockets flying over them. NONE.

You are so naive. Kim doesn’t need to send harmless rockets into the air. He won. Trump gave it to him. The dictator is now more influential and powerful than he could ever have dreamed of becoming. – Garth

#12 Sheryll on 03.11.19 at 5:57 pm

A couple more options for Carol – some breeders will take their dogs back, or there are breed specific rescues like Golden Rescue that place dogs with fosters until they can be rehomed. A tough situation, all the best to you.

#13 Doglovertoo on 03.11.19 at 6:02 pm

Hi Carol,
I’m so very sorry for your recent diagnosis of pancreatic cancer. My heart goes out to you and your family. I know you want to find a good home for Kelsey. I have been volunteering at the Etobicoke Humane Society for the past 4 years, no relation to Toronto Humane Society. The EHS is a wonderful shelter full of dog lovers. If you surrender Kelsey to EHS, he will be well cared for until a good home is found. Although they have kennels they are spacious and Kelsey would get lots of love and 3 walks a day. I would without hesitation surrender my dog to EHS if I got sick. Please refer to their website, Etobicokehumanesociety.com

#14 marcus on 03.11.19 at 6:04 pm

The media should be sued for stock manipulation with the Boeing “Story.” for hours I have seen posts from morons who say it is a software problem and the planes should be grounded. Finally Reuters announced the following. GARA-BOKKA, Ethiopia (Reuters) – “The Ethiopian Airlines plane that crashed killing 157 people was making a strange rattling noise and trailed smoke and debris as it swerved above a field of panicked cows before hitting earth, according to witnesses.” A software problem does NOT cause a plane to trail fire and debris as it plows into the Earth. Look to a massive bird strike, Bomb or a missile from the civil war that is raging in that area. The media should be hung. The Lion Air crash from 6 months ago was determined to be pilot error and maintenance failures. Such Bullshit!

#15 Just A Thought on 03.11.19 at 6:19 pm

Carol do you have in your neighbourhood a good family with a younger child that has bonded somewhat with your golden on occasion? Perhaps you were walking the dog, and this child stopped smiling petting it briefly that was well received.

#16 Reximus on 03.11.19 at 6:24 pm

pancreatic cancer is evil..one of the most important and unacknowledged reasons to not smoke

#17 Sail away on 03.11.19 at 6:26 pm

Quick view of annual rates of return over last 10 years:

Boeing = 29%
S&P 500 = 13%

$100,000 invested in 2009 would now be worth:

Boeing – $1.28M
S&P 500 – $340,000

That’s the other side of the coin.

#18 Terry on 03.11.19 at 6:27 pm

“A wise man once said: “If there are no dogs in Heaven, then when I die I want to go where they went.” Me, too.”

Correct. There are no animals in heaven since animals have no soul or spirit in them. Only humans do. I’ll take heaven over anywhere else because if everlasting life without fellowship with Christ is not hell then I don’t know what is!

No Jews or Muslims there either, you reckon? Sounds like an exclusive club. – Garth

#19 dakkie on 03.11.19 at 6:30 pm

Banks WARN Of Recession In Canada! – Housing Bubbles Are POPPING!

https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/banks-warn-of-recession-in-canada-housing-bubbles-are-popping/

#20 Flyboy on 03.11.19 at 6:33 pm

#16 Reximus

pancreatic cancer is evil..one of the most important and unacknowledged reasons to not smoke

Rex, I lost my old man 3 years ago to pancreatic cancer, he never smoked a day in his life. He was fit, watched what he ate, exercised, played hockey once a week till he couldn’t. Diagnosed at 64, dead 16 months later.

My 94 year old Grandfather smoked cigarettes for 30 years, still smokes cigars, besides his hearing and poor eye site not a thing wrong with him.

While I agree smoking is terrible for you, sometimes its just the luck of the draw.

#21 Sold Out on 03.11.19 at 6:41 pm

#16 Reximus

As only 25% of pancreatic cancers are thought to be caused by smoking, there’s only a one in four chance that Carol’s diagnosis is linked to it. Let’s stick with the odds, and skip the victim- blaming. In case you need a pointer, compassion is the appropriate response to her misfortune.

#22 Jeremy on 03.11.19 at 6:41 pm

I’ll take the golden. Has to be child friendly.

#23 Silent the people on 03.11.19 at 6:46 pm

What you said at the end of this blog was very touching! I applaud you!

#24 Never Give Up on 03.11.19 at 6:47 pm

There was a famous doctor who treated pancreatic cancer with a high rate of success. One night listened to him on the radio for a few hours because he cured many that was verified. Its all a matter of drinking a bit of baking soda in a glass of water. I assume this can be all located on the internet, because I do know it adjusts the PH levels back to normal.

#25 Reximus on 03.11.19 at 6:56 pm

#20 yeah I know there’s stories like that, but oncology reports are clear about the correlation of that cancer and smoking and when I go for my physical my MD always asks if I’ve even smoked a cigar. ..I ask why and he says ‘pancreas

#26 KLNR on 03.11.19 at 6:57 pm

@#18 Terry on 03.11.19 at 6:27 pm
“A wise man once said: “If there are no dogs in Heaven, then when I die I want to go where they went.” Me, too.”

Correct. There are no animals in heaven since animals have no soul or spirit in them. Only humans do. I’ll take heaven over anywhere else because if everlasting life without fellowship with Christ is not hell then I don’t know what is!
___________________________

terry drank the Kool-aid

#27 Terry on 03.11.19 at 6:58 pm

“A wise man once said: “If there are no dogs in Heaven, then when I die I want to go where they went.” Me, too.”

Correct. There are no animals in heaven since animals have no soul or spirit in them. Only humans do. I’ll take heaven over anywhere else because if everlasting life without fellowship with Christ is not hell then I don’t know what is!

“No Jews or Muslims there either, you reckon? Sounds like an exclusive club. – Garth”

It is exclusive………….but open to everyone!

#28 n1tro on 03.11.19 at 7:04 pm

#18 Terry on 03.11.19 at 6:27 pm

Dang. That got religious mighty quick. A lady is dying. Her pet who only knows unconditional loyalty will be homeless and masterless and all you got is that JC says no dogs are allowed in heaven?

Seems having an immortal soul like yours doesn’t come with any compassion the rest of us heathens seem to have.

#29 TurnerNation on 03.11.19 at 7:11 pm

Tech stock shorts better grab their crying towels this week.
‘Mustang Rally, think you better slow your mustang down’

#30 not 1st on 03.11.19 at 7:23 pm

Garth, you missed the biggest economic news of the day, the pending US China deal which threatens to supplant many of our export products including manufactured goods like autos and aircraft.

Have you considered the enormity of this potential development? This is a potential take over of our economy by the US. We will have no choice but to send all our products to them now, they take their exchange cut use some domestically, upgrade some and export them off shore just like they are doing with our oil. Sometimes they even sell it back to us.

This is huge and it went right by you guys.

#31 tccontrarian on 03.11.19 at 7:23 pm

@Terry

“Correct. There are no animals in heaven since animals have no soul or spirit in them. Only humans do. I’ll take heaven over anywhere else because if everlasting life without fellowship with Christ is not hell then I don’t know what is!”
—-
I don’t know if animals have ‘soul’ but I DO know when humans have no brain – as when they open their mouths and spew self-righteous garbage as the above.

FYI Terry, Eternity is not equivalent to ‘everlasting’!
The concept of ‘Eternity’ has to do with experiences outside the dimension of ‘time’.
And Heaven – it’s not a ‘place’ you go to when you die. The use of a capital ‘H’ is a clue. Both Heaven and Hell are states of Being! Learn your metaphors Christians before you launch another murderous Crusade (in the name of God, of course)!

TCC

#32 Reximus on 03.11.19 at 7:26 pm

#21 I made no insinuation about Carol and smoking, just about pancreatic disease and smoking. ..learn to read

#33 LP on 03.11.19 at 7:27 pm

Re #18 Terry

Nonsense! As evidence I give you Isaiah 11, vs 6-9. Read it and then climb down from that hobby horse. The words quoted by Garth are from an American humorist and are to be taken as such.

#34 Barb on 03.11.19 at 7:36 pm

Oh gawd, Carol….
How lucky Kelsey is to have you planning for her.

And this after wiping away tears at this:
https://www.beachradiovernon.ca/2019/03/11/115468/

As always, Garth’s suggestions can’t be improved upon.
My thoughts are with you and Kelsey.

I don’t care what the markets do today…or tomorrow for that matter.

#35 Christopher on 03.11.19 at 7:39 pm

Perhaps an idea for Carol?

https://news.uoguelph.ca/2010/11/what-will-happen-to-your-pet-if-you-die/

#36 Red falcon on 03.11.19 at 7:44 pm

I eschew all forms of investing except one… dividend stocks!!! They give you dividends not unlike apples, without cutting down the tree! When you retire u need income… dividend stocks provide a type of income!

Happy income folks!!

Red. :)

#37 Re 30 on 03.11.19 at 7:47 pm

All you people have to understand is this…
Trump deeply dislikes Trudeau therefore Canadian economy is done.

#38 Leo Trollstoy on 03.11.19 at 7:54 pm

A couple dumb comments about pancreatic cancer already tonight

Sad

#39 the Jaguar on 03.11.19 at 7:55 pm

The Jag was asked to become a named guardian in the will of a former love interest and agreed. As to who will outlive whom, guess we’ll see. I would rather go first as I couldn’t bear the sadness. Dog would have to give up her Ontario citizenship and become an Albertan, of course.
It’s an honour to be asked the way I see it.

#40 aerozone on 03.11.19 at 7:57 pm

Remember what it was like last night while you were
asleep and not dreaming? EXACTLY!!! …except without the body.

Enough religious mumbo-jumbo…
Vote Richard Dawkins for God!

#41 Barb on 03.11.19 at 8:02 pm

“A wise man once said: “If there are no dogs in Heaven, then when I die I want to go where they went.” Me, too.”

Correct. There are no animals in heaven since animals have no soul or spirit in them. Only humans do. I’ll take heaven over anywhere else because if everlasting life without fellowship with Christ is not hell then I don’t know what is!”

—————————————

When I read this, I was going to let it go.
And then I couldn’t.

So I will address my response directly to
“#18 Terry on 03.11.19 at 6:27 pm”

“…animals have no soul or spirit in them?”

You, sir/madam, have a decidedly misguided view of empathy and love.

Yet you speak of the fellowship of Christ being of paramount importance to you. Fine.

I recall about 25 years ago a family with a lovely little mongrel dog lived on the acreage beside us for a couple of years. Nice family with 4 or 5 young kids.
That winter was really cold and while looking out the window one day towards the neighbour’s, I noticed the little dog.
He was shifting his position tucked in beside the fireplace width of bricks, and curling up against the house again.

Thinking it was too cold to have the dog outside, I finally got hold of the neighbour on the phone. The neighbour told me “he won’t bother you barking again, because I shot him today.”

Aghast…I said I never heard him bark…ever, and asked why he killed that poor little dog?

The reply? “Oh he wasn’t keeping the deer away from my fruit trees, no good as a watchdog, and don’t be sad about it, animals have no soul.”

“Neither do you,” I replied and hung up.

Empathy.
Love.
Of a dog by us.
From a dog to us.

I feel very sorry for you Terry.

#42 diharv on 03.11.19 at 8:07 pm

Boeing is a bellweather bluechip company, this too shall pass. Wait until the Mayday episode comes out, half of them seem to be about the pilots failing to recognize a stall and not doing what is needed to get out of it .Get the nose down , not up .

#43 Ace Goodheart on 03.11.19 at 8:14 pm

If you’ve sold your Boeing shares you can buy them back again.

Reports from witnesses on the ground are that the Ethiopian 737 8 max was “trailing smoke and debris” as it flew over a “field of panicked cows”.

Airplanes don’t trail debris unless something hits them.

I would be looking for whomever fired the surface to air missle that took down that air craft.

#44 Don't Like GTA on 03.11.19 at 8:15 pm

Carol’s story today, my 46 year old cousin 2 days ago, and a coworker in the Ethiopian Airline plane crash yesterday just confirms that chasing careers and wealth should not be something we focus on every single day.

#45 Nonplused on 03.11.19 at 8:20 pm

Where does Carol live? I am sure there is somebody reading this blog that would love to take in a dog. Not that I think Garth wants to turn this blog into a dog-matching service but it would be a higher function than most. Perhaps higher than the current purpose of the blog. I don’t want to be dismissive of Carol’s plight, but we all go there one day. With people, we carry on with who is left. We mostly always do that with dogs and cats too. There is somebody out there that can assure Carol that her dog will be as fine as one can be when it loses it’s owner. (Dogs mourn too. It’s not a human only thing. They really do feel love, or at least attachment.)

Also Carol shouldn’t worry too much about the rescue agencies. They do a really good job of placing healthy and well trained animals. My dog is a rescue, and he’s great. My ex’s dog is a rescue (only good thing I have to say about her!) and it’s shy but other than that great. Many people won’t buy a breeder dog and insist on finding a rescue that fits in the family. I’m one. All I wanted was a dog. All my son wanted was a dog. It didn’t have to be a fancy dog. But yet he grew up to be more cool than a lot of breeds.

But matching the dog with a good family now for when the time comes given the circumstance might also be a good idea. If Carol lives in Calgary I am sure either me or my ex would consider taking on a good dog. It’s radio collars out here though. But no, you fools! It’s not cruel! It feels like a TENS machine and once the dog figures it out they never get shocked unless they absolutely have to chase that coyote.

—————

The thing about indexing that worries me is that if everyone is doing it, who is deciding what the companies are actually worth? Somebody has to be buying and selling based on fundamentals. Perhaps it’s better for people with small portfolios to outsource that responsibility by sticking to index funds, but somewhere in the market there has to be players who are calculating which individual stocks should be bought and should be sold, or price discovery stops working.

The Boeing example is a good one. A couple of planes crash, and suddenly the market discovers the shares may have been overvalued? But airplanes crash all the time, same as cars. Why wasn’t the stock discounted for this possibility already? The airline industry is extremely safe, but accidents happen. Analysis will be done to determine the cause of the crash, and even if it was pilot error steps will be taken to reduce the possibility of recurrence. Boeing probably isn’t going broke. But it took until a plane crash for the index funds to realize the share was trading too high? Well, of course they didn’t realize it, but somebody decided that Boeing was going to take a hit due to liability and retrofitting the series and started selling or shorting. Then what happens is the index funds have to jump on board because they are now overweight Boeing. At some point the short sellers decide that the stock has gone too low and they start buying, from the very index funds that had to sell to rebalance! It’s a nasty feedback loop driven by mathematics based on silly ideas.

If you happen to own Boeing shares, it’s probably too late to sell them. And don’t worry about Boeing. If the 2 crashes were caused by the same problem and not pilot error they will be fixed and Boeing will be able to afford to do so.

Sometimes you have to apply Garth’s advice to ride out the dips to big solid companies too. What’s probably coming up here is more downward pressure on Boeing’s stocks, but at some point a great buying opportunity. The company is down, but I do not believe they are out. The economics of fixing the 737-Max is much better than the economics of bringing a new competitor to the market and then certifying that new plane isn’t also going to crash. And that’s assuming it wasn’t pilot error, which we don’t know yet. Or sabotage. Yes, sabotage happens.

Oh wait, you are having a bit of cognitive dissidence because you don’t believe anyone would ever crash a plane to affect stock prices? Sabotage? My word? How can you say that? How quickly we have forgotten the California energy crisis, which was cause by Enron and Reliant coordinating electrical plant outages specifically to cause power prices to spike. PG&E never did this when they owned the plants. They had no motive to do so. But they were forced to divest of the plants in the name of free markets and once they did Enron and Reliant (and others) screwed them over big time, bankrupting them. I had a first row seat for that debacle, but I won’t go into how other than I worked for a company that made a ton of money trying to save PG&E, because it was in our best interest to first, take the money, and second, save PG&E. We got the money but we didn’t save PG&E. We tried. Enron still got them. Enron was much bigger than we were, and corrupt to the core.

The California energy crisis was a good example of something that Jordan Peterson often talks about now. It’s much easier to wreak something than improve it.

#46 Nonplused on 03.11.19 at 8:26 pm

#27 Terry

Why on earth would you assume animals have no soul or spirit? Why would you assume humans do?

If humans do have a spirit beyond what animals do, it is more evil.

#47 Time Is Of The Essence on 03.11.19 at 8:28 pm

Carol might consider some fast action by a Naturopathic Physician ND who has taken the same basic academic courses as an MD with a specialized course in oncology. They tend to know what an MD doesn’t understand like an infusion of vitamin C or being treated with baking soda for cancer related illnesses. Not much to lose based on the time limit of 3 months.

#48 Deplorable Airlines Discount Sale! on 03.11.19 at 8:34 pm

DELETED

#49 Ryan on 03.11.19 at 8:42 pm

Hi Carol, very sorry to hear about your situation.
My name is Ryan. I live in south Burlington nearby.
I had a 14 year old Golden , Kayla who passed last year. She was an angel and lived a great life.
We’re just starting to think about another dog. I’d be glad to connect if you’d like. My email is [email protected]

#50 VicPaul on 03.11.19 at 8:48 pm

Is this the same motley crew who, when differences of opinion/experience lead to back-biting, are capable of being stubbornly undiplomatic or downright prickly (not to mention the odd ad hominen). Nice to see the compassion for Carol and Kelsey flow genuinely…as it should.
The dogs….not so scurvy.

#51 Rargary on 03.11.19 at 8:54 pm

#31 TCC & #28 n1tro- Ha! My thoughts exactly! Carol, appears there’s enough suggestions for your loving pooch. You have much to be grateful for having the best furry friend you could ever imagine. May you spend time each day in love and with a smile. And Carol, it’s none of my business if you smoke or ever smoked. If you said you had lung cancer, someone would’ve brought up smoking. Just a reason to trash talk others to feel superior. It’s not your fault!!!

#52 Yellow Vest on 03.11.19 at 8:56 pm

Yellow Vest on 03.11.19 at 5:10 pm
CORRECTION: The North Korea talks were not a total flub. BOTH leaders went didn’t they? More than you can say about any other President in the last 60 years.

Yes, and the stature of the US was bestowed upon a cruel 3rd-world dictator. The world is likely less stable as a result. – Garth

Can someone please remind us how many ballistic missiles or nuclear tests have happened in North Korea since the first summit? Maybe I missed one.

As stated, Kim no longer needs tinpot theatrics. Trump made him whole. – Garth

#53 Casey on 03.11.19 at 8:57 pm

#17 Sail away on 03.11.19 at 6:26 pm
Quick view of annual rates of return over last 10 years:

Boeing = 29%
S&P 500 = 13%

$100,000 invested in 2009 would now be worth:

Boeing – $1.28M
S&P 500 – $340,000

That’s the other side of the coin.
——————-

And March 2009 was a bottom of the S&P 500 – why would you choose a 10 year comparison?

#54 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.11.19 at 8:59 pm

@#136 Ace Goodheart

Interesting info on the Guri Dam in Venezuela.
I’ll keep watching as this Bolivarian disaster unfolds.
One wonders when the Army will have had enough.
No electrical power basically nukes everything.

We’ll see millions of refugees streaming into Brazil, Colombia, etc…… and THATS when the poop hits the fan.
I hope Maduro likes Moscow or Beijing because thats about the only place he can run with his oil Billions….. unless he’s got a Canadian passport and an SNC -Liberalin chartered jet………

#55 Ustabe on 03.11.19 at 9:16 pm

Heaven and Baking Soda?

Carol, I am so sorry you have to read some of the advice given here today. For a real estate and sometimes political blog it sure attracts “experts” from a wide array of disciplines.

It says a lot about you as a person that even in the situation you are, you seek security for your dog. I hope you find your peace despite the awkward and ham fisted attempts of those who would use your situation to promote their agendas.

#56 Dianne M Maley on 03.11.19 at 9:18 pm

Goodness, so many people looking to adopt a mature dog. Is the dog good with cats?
If so, I’d love to have such a dog, no remuneration necessary. Except maybe transportation, I’m in Ontario.

#57 DON on 03.11.19 at 9:31 pm

FLOP, live to fight another day. In the last couple of months I noticed you also started investigating other topics that directly affect real estate.

You no longer need to write Pink Posts (Well done, Great contribution!), besides you couldn’t compete with the media who see blood in the Van market and the media is in a frenzy (less real estate ads begs the need for increased readership).

But there are things behind the scenes (like the rise in consumer delinquencies, High developer debt, etc). Come back with a different handle after a short break?

#58 Trumpocalypse2019 on 03.11.19 at 9:38 pm

4 Days to the Ides of March

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/433414-us-north-korean-tensions-threaten-to-boil-over

Are you ready?

PREPARE

#59 DON on 03.11.19 at 10:04 pm

#9 BC_Doc on 03.11.19 at 5:48 pm

… Re: Carol. Carol, sorry for the aweful news. I wonder if one of Garth’s readers might be interested in adopting your pooch when the time comes? Garth’s blog is a favourite of dog lovers. All the best. BC Doc

**********

Carol,

As the Doc says this is a dog friendly and I am sure many will have some thoughts on this. I already mentioned to one person. A dog that is that loved would be a pleasure to have. I inherited a pryneese/burmese giant from my mom (smartest dog I have ever known). Now he is being pestered by a little puppy but then again so are the 3 cats.

All the best to you Carol and your puppy.

#60 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.11.19 at 10:06 pm

For all the Ghouls out there thinking a Boeing stock “short” is the way to success….

The left seat Pilot had 8000 hours of flight time.
The right seat Pilot had 200 hours of flight time.

Indications are they were not trained on the latest updates for the 737 Max 8, implemented after the Lion Air crash in Indonesia.
Sad but…this may have been pilot error.

#61 DON on 03.11.19 at 10:08 pm

#11 Rick on 03.11.19 at 5:56 pm

Yes, and the stature of the US was bestowed upon a cruel 3rd-world dictator. The world is likely less stable as a result. – Garth
WRONG!!! Ask the Japanese. No rockets flying over them. NONE.

You are so naive. Kim doesn’t need to send harmless rockets into the air. He won. Trump gave it to him. The dictator is now more influential and powerful than he could ever have dreamed of becoming. – Garth
****************
Garth nailed it here. Of course Trump needed a distraction.

Kim and his sister are getting more attention then Putin and Assad.

#62 An unstable psychopath known as Garth Turner on 03.11.19 at 10:16 pm

DELETED

#63 DON on 03.11.19 at 10:26 pm

#24 Never Give Up on 03.11.19 at 6:47 pm

There was a famous doctor who treated pancreatic cancer with a high rate of success. One night listened to him on the radio for a few hours because he cured many that was verified. Its all a matter of drinking a bit of baking soda in a glass of water. I assume this can be all located on the internet, because I do know it adjusts the PH levels back to normal.
——–

Helps with heartburn.

last post

#64 Spectacle on 03.11.19 at 10:52 pm

“What should an investor do? Buy more? Retreat? Sell into strength? Buy into a dip?

Answer: for most people, do nothing. ”
The Great Sir Turner

——–::—————

Tickets to the “Front-Row-Seats”

Enjoy the show 2019

#65 Danforth on 03.11.19 at 10:57 pm

Ensuring that Kelsey is cared for reminds me of another important matter about dogs’ retirement…

Working dogs for the police and border & immigration services often end up being adopted by their handlers in retirement, which is great.
But I understand those dogs don’t have a funded retirement from the public trust, and I think they should. They go to work -literally – for their entire adulthood, for our safety and security. It’s a high risk job.
In retirement, they should have the *best* food, toys, doggie daycare, and medical services which are available. We stole their freedom by making them be working dogs, all for our human betterment. Their human caregivers in retirement should not have to sacrifice personal savings, or ever consider whether that sentient being should get that hip surgery, over a bit of money. Of course those doggies who gave us so much should get the best. Ensuring we take care of police and border/immigration dogs’ retirement is a wholly appropriate use of tax dollars. They are part of the staff, in every sense!

(…and I’m not even a dog person, I like cats! )

#66 BS on 03.11.19 at 11:13 pm

#5 Yellow Vest on 03.11.19 at 5:10 pm
CORRECTION: The North Korea talks were not a total flub. BOTH leaders went didn’t they? More than you can say about any other President in the last 60 years.

Yes, and the stature of the US was bestowed upon a cruel 3rd-world dictator. The world is likely less stable as a result. – Garth

Haters gonna hate. Trump keeps on winning and the Trump haters can’t figure out what is going on.

#67 Paul on 03.11.19 at 11:17 pm

#11 Rick on 03.11.19 at 5:56 pm
Yes, and the stature of the US was bestowed upon a cruel 3rd-world dictator. The world is likely less stable as a result. – Garth
WRONG!!! Ask the Japanese. No rockets flying over them. NONE.

You are so naive. Kim doesn’t need to send harmless rockets into the air. He won. Trump gave it to him. The dictator is now more influential and powerful than he could ever have dreamed of becoming. – Garth
————————————————————————————————
Perfect, Better just nuke the little bas*er and get it over with. It’s only a matter of time.

#68 SI2K on 03.11.19 at 11:30 pm

Carol:

https://www.goldenrescue.ca/

We had an emergency foster (Husky) for all of December who had just lost her human companion. The Husky rescue found a fantastic long-term home with other huskies she could pack with, and she’s doing so well. Best wishes to you.

#69 Virginia in Victoria on 03.11.19 at 11:47 pm

Hi Carol, so sorry to read your note, but looks like many wonderful options are emerging for Kelsey.

Another idea is to check out http://www.elderdog.ca, an organization that works to keep dogs and their companions together for as long as possible, then re-homes the dog as needed. They say “once an ElderDog always an ElderDog” meaning that Kelsey would be cared for until her own death. Hugs to you both,

#70 Sail Away on 03.11.19 at 11:48 pm

#53 Casey on 03.11.19 at 8:57 pm
#17 Sail away on 03.11.19 at 6:26 pm
Quick view of annual rates of return over last 10 years:

Boeing = 29%
S&P 500 = 13%

$100,000 invested in 2009 would now be worth:

Boeing – $1.28M
S&P 500 – $340,000

That’s the other side of the coin.
——————-

And March 2009 was a bottom of the S&P 500 – why would you choose a 10 year comparison?

————————————–

Garth used 1 day, I used 10 years. Both time periods apply equally to Boeing and the index. I don’t generally make conclusions based on one day of trading, though. What would you suggest?

#71 With the best intention on 03.11.19 at 11:54 pm

Dear Carol,
I am responding with heartfelt compassion and empathy for you in this situation. I too received a difficult health prognosis many years ago. The shock of the diagnosis is as harmful as the health issue.
Don’t give up hope. Hope lies just beyond the shadow of darkness. Are you aware of ‘Gerson Therapy’ or ‘Budwig Protocol’?
Best thoughts for you.

#72 Vampire studies on 03.12.19 at 12:01 am

VREU (You are no 1!)

Kirk: “Spock? Spock? What is it Spock? A boom? A bust?
Spock?”

Spock: “Unknown captain. Insufficient data”

It surprised me too that E. Saanich had such a downturn. What are the chances of that? So I recalled
what I learned in probability and statistics while
getting my engineering degree. (Yes engineering).
Given the VREB has 15 areas listed, and assuming a
balanced market (meaning either an up or down result
would be equally likely) what do you think the chances of one or more areas having a decline for 3 straight months are?

Try 86.5%. Might be a little rounding error. So nothing
unusual there. I don’t have an analysis for the amount of the decline, but I saw some pretty wild swings in other areas for the couple of months I checked.

So yes, we need more data examined. Here is what I suggest. First, include all areas. This isn’t to discount E. Saan, but to increase the sample size. Second, do more than one month. Try 3 (more if u like). Maybe March-April_May as those should have lots of sales (rutting season). Then total those months in each year starting
with 2016. Longer if you like (more data!). Of course we’ll have to wait for 2019, but it will pass soon.

That should smooth out the results and show the big
picture more clearly.

For a little extra fun, you may wish to group the areas into regions, maybe the western communities, Victoria,
and then the peninsula. Maybe there are some trends there too.

Good luck. Look forward to the results.

#73 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.12.19 at 12:10 am

The Journey.
Actually a good flick on Netflicks.
About the peace conference brokered by Tony Blair.
Between mortal enemies in North Ireland.
Worth watching.

#74 Smoking Man on 03.12.19 at 12:25 am

The road trip to worm food.

Dear Carol, I hope I do not come across as insensitive. Tough love is what I’m thinking.

Been in your shoes, daily bacon, and eggs and very hot peppers with a touch of garlic for breakfast saved my ass for now.

Or maybe over smoking and bourbon at night. The right combo of Chemicals is all I’m saying.

If you’re under 60, it sucks, if you’re over 60 probably a gift. I watch my folks decompose in real-time in a nursing home. After 60 pain and misery awaits.

In my mind, I still think I’m 19, then you accidentally look into a mirror, the horror show.

Carol. make some bacon and eggs have a cigarette, put bourbon in your morning coffee. Get on a plane and go somewhere you have always wanted to go.

If you don’t have the loot.

email me.

[email protected].

I’ll get you set up with a go fund me page…
Come on blog dogs, let’s help Carol go out in style. who’s in.

#75 Smoking Man on 03.12.19 at 1:21 am

When you give no shit, hope there is a God. And you got good ear buds.

https://youtu.be/RmtP8X4ZErs

#76 Nonplused on 03.12.19 at 1:23 am

What is everyone thinking about the near-certain sabotage of the Venezuelan power grid? Didn’t read that news? Oh they are having a time of it. But the timing makes it look like the US may have done it. I don’t think I buy that and think it might have been internal. The US can be nasty with their sanctions and I believe they are not above sabotage, but to take down the power grid in the middle of an attempted regime change? I think that is a bridge too far. I suspect it was a rouge, probably Venezuelan. And even then you can’t tell whether that rouge was working for the resistance or the government. Not with the information I have anyway. All we know for sure is that somebody who could access the computers that run the grid took it down.

#77 Nobel Laureate on 03.12.19 at 1:42 am

Here is a little explanation of the difference between free markets & capitalism and socialism.

Under free markets & capitalism a farmer has some land and a horse, but he need boots, a plow, and a barn. So he trades his grains and animals to the townspeople for boots, a plow, and lumber. All is well. The townspeople get the grain they need and the farmer gets his boots.

Under socialism the farmer is still expected to provide the grain, but the townspeople sit in the pubs drinking it as beer and no things the farmer needs are returned to him. Eventually the farmer and his horse die because they can’t grow enough grain to feed themselves and the townspeople without the plow. The field goes fallow. In town, a revolution occurs and many people die. However nobody thinks to start making boots, plows, or lumber because all the farmers are dead, so there is no one to sell them to in exchange for grain.

Socialism = death by starvation. Always has. It’s been tried before. It’s not different this time.

Oh well what about Norway? It’s not a socialist country and has vast revenues from oil exports. Even the Soviet Union was only able to manage socialism until oil fell to $10 a barrel and then they went down too. Socialism only works if you have the ability to live off the avails of another, at the personal and every other level up to the government.

Socialist go to university and study socialism, they don’t work and they don’t want to work, even if you have a job for them. They expect someone else to unplug their toilet. For free.

#78 MSM-Free Zone on 03.12.19 at 2:28 am

14 marcus on 03.11.19 at 6:04 pm

“…..for hours I have seen posts from morons who say it is a software problem and the planes should be grounded……A software problem does NOT cause a plane to trail fire and debris as it plows into the Earth. The Lion Air crash from 6 months ago was determined to be pilot error and maintenance failures. Such Bullshit!
__________________________________

No, not ‘Bullshit’. As Garth pointed out, this is not an aviation blog, but your post requires a couple of corrections.

The 737 ‘Max’ was designed with newer, larger LEAP engines mounted further forward on the wing than the old CFM engines they replace.

Unfortunately, Boeing found that, should the Max ever approach a wing stall condition, the newer LEAP engines actually created additional lift themselves ahead of the C of G, pushing the nose up even higher, exasperating an approaching wing stall condition even further.

To counteract the engine mount issue, Boeing added ‘software’ as you noted, called Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS) which, based upon feed back from the Angle of Attack Sensors (little weather vanes mounted to the sides of the fuselage just below the cockpit windows) was supposed to gently push the nose down, away from a wing stall condition.

Software is only as good as the information it receives.

Boeing was supposed to have a software update to prevent erroneous feed back to the MCAS in place for last January, but “…. it has still not been released due to both engineering challenges and differences of opinion among some federal and company safety experts over how extensive the changes should be…..”

Incidentally, if you’re wondering if you’re about to fly on a ‘Max’ style 737, the easiest way to know is to look at the APU exhaust hole at the very tail end of the fuselage. If you see a stainless steel shaped ‘cone’, you are about to board a ‘Max’.

Sorry for hijacking (no pun intended) today’s blog.

https://theaircurrent.com/aviation-safety/what-is-the-boeing-737-max-maneuvering-characteristics-augmentation-system-mcas-jt610/

#79 Robert Ash on 03.12.19 at 4:22 am

Dear Carol; When My Dad, was alive, he used to mention, that all of us have our time here on earth, but no one is ever really gone, when others think about them… and that takes, Energy, and that is transmitted somewhere… I am sure You will be the receipent, of a lot of Positive, and Powerful, energy, and as my Dad said, in a way you are never really gone… And I am sure there will be a lot of positive energy and love, from people thinking about you…

#80 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.12.19 at 4:27 am

@#62

A village somewhere is missing it’s childish idiot.
Perhaps you could apply.

#81 Howard on 03.12.19 at 5:37 am

#18 Terry on 03.11.19 at 6:27 pm
“A wise man once said: “If there are no dogs in Heaven, then when I die I want to go where they went.” Me, too.”

Correct. There are no animals in heaven since animals have no soul or spirit in them. Only humans do. I’ll take heaven over anywhere else because if everlasting life without fellowship with Christ is not hell then I don’t know what is!

————————————

Brace yourself Terry….humans are animals.

Take note of the first line in human taxonomy.

Kingdom: Animalia
Phylum: Chordata
Class: Mammalia
Order: Primates
Suborder: Haplorhini
Infraorder: Simiiformes
Family: Hominidae
Subfamily: Homininae
Tribe: Hominini
Genus: Homo
Species: H. sapiens

#82 BillyBob on 03.12.19 at 5:42 am

The reporting and comments about the B737 Max crash(es) are painfully ignorant. It’s hard to know where to begin, really, and I’ve long realized that getting into debates on the internet with armchair experts is pointless.

But it does once again, make me extremely cognizant of how if I can recognize this only because it is in my field of expertise, how this must be extrapolated across all reporting in other fields and just how badly people are misinformed about well, just about everything, unless they happen to have special knowledge conferred by actual experience in what is being reported.

The difference is I don’t offer up nonsense regurgitation of whatever I’ve read in fields outside my narrow specialty.

Let’s just say I have new sympathy for say, doctors listening to the rantings of anti-vaxxers.

Or financial advisors listening to gamblers pretending to be investors.

Ugh.

#83 conan on 03.12.19 at 5:45 am

Kim will be firing a missile in the next few weeks. He is going to time it for maximum embarrassment for Trump.

Animals have souls. God told me.

#84 Remembrancer on 03.12.19 at 8:04 am

#82 Howard on 03.12.19 at 5:37 am

To be fair, Howard, taxonomy limits the other choices to Plantae, Fungi, Protista, Archaeabacteria/Archaea and Eubacteria/Bacteria.

So there was never going to be a palpable choice for Terry…

#85 Tater on 03.12.19 at 8:07 am

This fear of single stocks is silly. Pretty much any stock can be a great, good or poor investment depending on when you bought it. If you have any sort of value investing bent, and are buying at a discount to a reasonable estimate of intrinsic value, you aren’t really going to have 10% overnight drops.

In the case of BA, you could have picked it up in early 2017 in the $160-$170 area, my valuation model put a $315 valuation on it at that point. Had you bought then, and sold when you reached full value (as defined by the model) you would have been out in early 2018 with a double.

You miss the point. Most people are more engaged in other life matters and less of a financial genius than you. For them the diversification of an EFT reduces stress and provides more consistent long-term returns. Stop being a cowboy. – Garth

#86 Tater on 03.12.19 at 8:20 am

I should have added, at the beginning of this month, the model would have valued BA at about $400 per share. So, no margin of safety and thus, a bad investment.

And if you want to forward my email address to Carol, I’m pretty sure I can convince my wife that we should give Kelsey a great home.

#87 TurnerNation on 03.12.19 at 8:29 am

#136 Ace Goodheart yesterday – that goes to what they say, our elite rulers just want to control our energy and emotions.
Want to heat your home for your family? Ahh that’s going to cost 20-30% more in carbon taxes now.
Want to drive to/from work to feed your family? Ahh that gas price is half made up of taxes.
Want to live in peace with your family? No such, duck and cover here comes another TeRR0r alert.

#88 Bdwy sktn on 03.12.19 at 8:47 am

Billy Bob how many 737 designers are not engineers? Are you an engineer?

Your area of exp is to operate the machine. Not to design, plan, adapt and develop said machine.

Kind of like a plumber need not understand advanced fluid mechanics to unclog a toilet.

Or how most drivers have little idea of how their car actually works.

(I’m still jealous of your job though)

#89 Tater on 03.12.19 at 9:09 am

#86 Tater on 03.12.19 at 8:07 am
This fear of single stocks is silly. Pretty much any stock can be a great, good or poor investment depending on when you bought it. If you have any sort of value investing bent, and are buying at a discount to a reasonable estimate of intrinsic value, you aren’t really going to have 10% overnight drops.

In the case of BA, you could have picked it up in early 2017 in the $160-$170 area, my valuation model put a $315 valuation on it at that point. Had you bought then, and sold when you reached full value (as defined by the model) you would have been out in early 2018 with a double.

You miss the point. Most people are more engaged in other life matters and less of a financial genius than you. For them the diversification of an EFT reduces stress and provides more consistent long-term returns. Stop being a cowboy. – Garth
—————————————————————-
Never! I enjoy it too much. And for people who do, and keep track of their performance vs a representative ETF, buying stocks is fine.

#90 unbalanced on 03.12.19 at 9:13 am

Stop being a cowboy! What works for some may not work for others. To each is own.

Successful amateur equity investors are few and far between. Most brag about the winners and conveniently have amnesia about the rest. When over 90% of professional full-time, trained portfolio managers with research departments can’t beat the market, some guy using Google doesn’t stand a chance of consistent returns. But they talk like Masters of the Universe. Cowboys. – Garth

#91 Andrew on 03.12.19 at 9:44 am

18 Terry-
Every time I look into my dogs eyes I see the most gentle soul and being I have ever met in this world.

Most Humans I have met who believe there is a guy in the sky looking after them are ones who have no Soul or regard for others.

I want my soul to be with his when I go, where ever that is will be Heaven for me. Even if it is just a hole in the ground or ashes spread in a field

#92 BillyBob on 03.12.19 at 9:47 am

#89 Bdwy sktn on 03.12.19 at 8:47 am
Billy Bob how many 737 designers are not engineers? Are you an engineer?

Your area of exp is to operate the machine. Not to design, plan, adapt and develop said machine.

Kind of like a plumber need not understand advanced fluid mechanics to unclog a toilet.

Or how most drivers have little idea of how their car actually works.

(I’m still jealous of your job though)

====================================

Your post is apropos of nothing. How many of the posters speculating about the cause of the accident are Boeing engineers?

Yeah, I thought so. And that was my point. So many opinions based on…??

I have mine, and they’re based on information not always readily available to the general public analyzed though a lifetime of experience as you said, operating said machines. Doesn’t mean I’m right, which I why I wait for the official findings.

MSM-Free Zone @ post 78 has a decent breakdown of the system at the top of the suspect list. Personally I’m not a fan of software fixes for instability problems, unless you’re flying a F35. But this is the modern-day Boeing, fixated on the bottom line so squeezing performance out of a type first certified in 1967 and then cobbling together a “solution” with computer code to get the Max certified, and to top it off, not informing flight crews. What could go wrong?

We may have just found out.

I still think BA is an excellent buy.

#93 Ubul on 03.12.19 at 10:14 am

Kim is enabled and animated by China. He is Beijing’s pawn in the US/Western-China relations.

#94 dharma bum on 03.12.19 at 10:26 am

All pilots and all pilot training are not created equal.

Statistically, flight disasters occur at a higher rate with airlines from third world countries.

This is documented fact.

It’s the pilot’s fault, more often than not.

The stats are well documented:

http://planecrashinfo.com/rates.htm

https://www.enotes.com/topics/outliers-the-story-of-success/chapter-summaries/chapter-7-summary

#95 Lee on 03.12.19 at 10:27 am

Everyone wants to pick their own equities because they want to feel like they are responsible for the success of their portfolios. This is natural. A great way to get the urge of doing it yourself out of your system is to reserve 10% of your portfolio for equity picks, but ensure that you have at least 15 different equities, and no more than a couple of equities in any one industry, and preferably all equities that pay dividends and have done so for the last ten years or so. Of course, then why not just buy an etf that focuses on dividend growth?

#96 dharma bum on 03.12.19 at 10:29 am

But they talk like Masters of the Universe. Cowboys. – Garth
——————————————————————–

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z_wmASF3jYA

#97 Marcus on 03.12.19 at 10:44 am

#78 Those were a lot of words wasted. Multiple eye witnesses to the crash said it was on fire and trailing debris. This has nothing to do with MCAS. Look to massive bird strike, bomb or missile from the civil war raging below in the neighboring country. Wake up people. The Lion Air crash was proven to be pilot error and bad maintenance.

#98 James on 03.12.19 at 11:16 am

God damn I love watching press secretary Sarah Sanders do the Trump Ballet. It derides the position to watch her loose her veracity in front of the world. Oh hell she lost her integrity as soon as she took the position as White House Press Secretary. BTW What the hell does she do with all of that free time not standing in front of the podium? Practice freeze faces to hide her lies?
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2019/03/sarah-sanders-michael-cohen-press-briefing

#99 KLNR on 03.12.19 at 11:27 am

@#41 Barb on 03.11.19 at 8:02 pm
“A wise man once said: “If there are no dogs in Heaven, then when I die I want to go where they went.” Me, too.”

Correct. There are no animals in heaven since animals have no soul or spirit in them. Only humans do. I’ll take heaven over anywhere else because if everlasting life without fellowship with Christ is not hell then I don’t know what is!”

—————————————

When I read this, I was going to let it go.
And then I couldn’t.

So I will address my response directly to
“#18 Terry on 03.11.19 at 6:27 pm”

“…animals have no soul or spirit in them?”

You, sir/madam, have a decidedly misguided view of empathy and love.

Yet you speak of the fellowship of Christ being of paramount importance to you. Fine.

I recall about 25 years ago a family with a lovely little mongrel dog lived on the acreage beside us for a couple of years. Nice family with 4 or 5 young kids.
That winter was really cold and while looking out the window one day towards the neighbour’s, I noticed the little dog.
He was shifting his position tucked in beside the fireplace width of bricks, and curling up against the house again.

Thinking it was too cold to have the dog outside, I finally got hold of the neighbour on the phone. The neighbour told me “he won’t bother you barking again, because I shot him today.”

Aghast…I said I never heard him bark…ever, and asked why he killed that poor little dog?

The reply? “Oh he wasn’t keeping the deer away from my fruit trees, no good as a watchdog, and don’t be sad about it, animals have no soul.”

“Neither do you,” I replied and hung up.

Empathy.
Love.
Of a dog by us.
From a dog to us.

I feel very sorry for you Terry.
_______________________________

what a horrible story and person!
some people.

#100 Dogman01 on 03.12.19 at 11:40 am

#45 Nonplused on 03.11.19 at 8:20 pm
Very interesting comments on all topics – Thanks

Regarding
“The economics of fixing the 737-Max is much better than the economics of bringing a new competitor to the market and then certifying that new plane isn’t also going to crash.”.

Boeing has a huge “moat”; only a nation state backed corporate entity with decades of experience can compete. Boeing is far far too “important to fail”. As as result of WWII experience the US decided it would always “dominate the air”, hence Avro Arrow failure and no “Western Power” will buy a Grippin in any significant numbers.
Boeing is a safe as a US Govt Bond in the long term.
Start-ups are usually in a software space where capital, plant etc is small, try building a new plane. High Tech manufacturing is a 30+ year commitment, strategy investment. Big Moat, too important to fail.

#101 Howard on 03.12.19 at 11:41 am

#99 James on 03.12.19 at 11:16 am
God damn I love watching press secretary Sarah Sanders do the Trump Ballet. It derides the position to watch her loose her veracity in front of the world. Oh hell she lost her integrity as soon as she took the position as White House Press Secretary. BTW What the hell does she do with all of that free time not standing in front of the podium? Practice freeze faces to hide her lies?

———————————

Sarah Sander is a government hire. Canada actually elected someone like you describe.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/oecd-trudeau-snc-lavalin-1.5051446

OECD ‘concerned’ by allegations Trudeau interfered in SNC-Lavalin case

#102 Bdwy sktn on 03.12.19 at 11:55 am

Cptn bBob . “Not informing flight crews” this is shocking. Not having a big red easy button to override software driven uncontrollable dives seems prudent as well.

Thx for your take.

yes the avg engineer here (the majority?)
is not building or flying aircraft. (Nor has your familiarity) but can easily understand the systems and control issues at play.
How often do aoa transducers fail?
Why aren’t redundant systems used?
I guess you’d be ok operating a max if u think the stock is a buy?

I used to spend a lot of time watching pilots on good flights. Now I only watch the bad ones. Many hero pilots out there. Shocking how many crashes happen. Usually a mech failure bravely battled by crew.

This is not an aircraft blog so wild speculation is ok, no?

#103 IHCTD9 on 03.12.19 at 1:41 pm

#95 dharma bum on 03.12.19 at 10:26 am

All pilots and all pilot training are not created equal.
_____

I’ll save the Dogs all the work:

Stay off Ar Iran, Air Pakistan, and Air China unless you have a death wish.

#104 Remembrancer on 03.12.19 at 1:56 pm

#100 KLNR on 03.12.19 at 11:27 am
#41 Barb on 03.11.19 at 8:02 pm

If it helps, #27 Terry on 03.11.19 at 6:58 pm doesn’t seem to know as much about the core subject he’s speaking of than he thinks he does and going with his own biases and stern interpretations, a typical occupational hazard of blog post commenters regardless of topic…

While this is approaching the warning “even the devil can cite scripture for his purpose” and largely off topic, my one contribution to this discussion is with a passage from a tome that Abraham Lincoln is reputed as having described in part: “…the wisdom expressed in it the most lasting and profound…”

(BTW Breath / Soul / Spirit are largely interchangeable in the original Hebrew based on the context…)

“For what happens to the children of man and what happens to the beasts is the same; as one dies, so dies the other. They all have the same breath, and man has no advantage over the beasts, for all is vanity. All go to one place. All are from the dust, and to dust all return. Who knows whether the spirit of man goes upward and the spirit of the beast goes down into the earth?” Ecclesiastes 3:19-21 English Standard Version

#105 James on 03.12.19 at 2:03 pm

#102 Howard on 03.12.19 at 11:41 am

#99 James on 03.12.19 at 11:16 am
God damn I love watching press secretary Sarah Sanders do the Trump Ballet. It derides the position to watch her loose her veracity in front of the world. Oh hell she lost her integrity as soon as she took the position as White House Press Secretary. BTW What the hell does she do with all of that free time not standing in front of the podium? Practice freeze faces to hide her lies?

———————————

Sarah Sander is a government hire. Canada actually elected someone like you describe.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/oecd-trudeau-snc-lavalin-1.5051446

OECD ‘concerned’ by allegations Trudeau interfered in SNC-Lavalin case
___________________________________________
LMFAO Yes one hundo P.

#106 My First Plane Flight on 03.12.19 at 2:35 pm

My dad and I were flying over Lake Rosseau with a pilot who was a truck driver. He made the comment that this would be his last flight because the engine was leaking oil. He said hang on were going down and landing on the water.

#107 Flying Foxtrot on 03.12.19 at 3:14 pm

Aerospace, Airlines, Fling-Wings, Fart Lifters – they’re all very volatile. Compare Airbus to Boeing. Boeing pushes a great product, and the past few products from Airbus have been questionable. A lot of R&D is needed into these industries and the payoff is usually very high – if it works and is cost-effective. Also – don’t forget – China is looking for any reason to destabilize American Industry. Why not ground a bunch of American built aircraft? It seems to have gotten a whole bunch of people/governments and airlines worried! If it’s not Boeing, I’m Not Going.

#108 waiting on the westcoast on 03.12.19 at 3:15 pm

Just over 3% of SFD in Metro Vancouver are owned by non-residents… Hardly an influence…

https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/housing-report-offers-new-insights-into-b-c-s-non-resident-home-ownership

#109 Midnights on 03.12.19 at 3:22 pm

Well Ross Kay said, that those cheap rental rates on Mansions are truly happening.
https://www.howestreet.com/2019/03/11/debt-to-income-worries-versus-net-wealth-bragging/

#110 not 1st on 03.12.19 at 3:33 pm

Trump is right, they are making aircraft too complex and taking humans out of the equation too much and relying on electronics.

Look at the next plane the 777x with folding wingtips. Why add that kind of complexity. Moving parts on the wing tips. Just asking for an accident.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RGsz_toWM5A

#111 jess on 03.12.19 at 3:41 pm

Forthcoming 21 March 2019

Settlements and Non-Trial Agreements by Parties to the Anti-Bribery Convention

Ever since the entry into force of the OECD Anti-Bribery Convention, bribery offences, including the bribery of foreign public officials, have increasingly been resolved through non-trial resolutions. Of the 890 cases concluded under the Anti-Bribery Convention to date, close to 80% have been through non-trial resolutions.

Non-trial resolutions, commonly known as “settlements”, are generally viewed as a pragmatic and efficient way to resolve cases that would otherwise require tremendous time and resources to investigate and prosecute before reaching a court. Advocates for settlements argue that their compromising rather than adversarial nature constitute an incentive for wrongdoers to self-report to prosecutors and increase the prospects of corporate governance reforms. However, they also present legal, institutional and procedural challenges and some experts question their ability to fairly and effectively deliver justice. Questions of transparency, the level of deterrence and victims’ compensation are generally at the heart of these concerns.

This Study is the first cross-country examination of the different types of resolutions that can be used to resolve foreign bribery cases. Covering 27 of the 44 Parties to the Anti-Bribery Convention, the Study documents the non-trial resolution mechanisms available to resolve foreign bribery cases with individuals and/or legal persons with the imposition of sanctions and/or confiscation. The Study was undertaken by the OECD Working Group on Bribery in International Business Transactions. It relies on governmental data gathered through both the rigourous country monitoring process, and a comprehensive survey circulated to all Parties to the Convention. It also relies on the OECD database of concluded foreign bribery cases and specific case studies of the most prominent multi-jurisdictional cases.

This study will be launched on 21 March at the OECD Global Anti-Corruption and Integrity Forum.
http://www.oecd.org/corruption/Resolving-Foreign-Bribery-Cases-with-Non-Trial-Resolutions.htm
======================

meanwhile blacklists …have those really rought change?

Empty OECD ‘tax haven’ blacklist undermines progress

June 28, 2017 by Alex Cobham

“The OECD has exposed itself as opaque in its search for tax transparency. Its approach means the blacklist of ‘uncooperative tax havens’ is likely to remain near empty and will do little to prevent corporate tax dodging,” Esmé Berkhout, tax policy adviser for Oxfam International, said in a press release today.

==========================
As Christine Lagarde of the IMF argues in the FT this morning:

…”The public perception that large multinational companies pay little tax has led to political demands for urgent action. The call for a new approach is intense, and with good reason. The ease with which multinationals seem able to avoid tax and the three-decade-long decline in corporate tax rates compromise faith in the fairness of the international system.

https://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2019/03/11/the-imf-says-that-the-time-for-major-corporation-tax-reform-has-arrived/

https://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2019/03/11/accounting-regulation-in-the-uk-to-be-reformed-but-not-by-enough-to-make-much-difference/

#112 LP on 03.12.19 at 3:51 pm

#106 Remembrancer on 03.12.19 at 1:56 pm

Thanks Remembrancer

I couldn’t find that passage but know it well. It’s why I could only come up with the Isaiah reference.

#113 Renter's Revenge! on 03.12.19 at 3:55 pm

#96 Lee on 03.12.19 at 10:27 am
Everyone wants to pick their own equities because they want to feel like they are responsible for the success of their portfolios. This is natural. A great way to get the urge of doing it yourself out of your system is to reserve 10% of your portfolio for equity picks, but ensure that you have at least 15 different equities, and no more than a couple of equities in any one industry, and preferably all equities that pay dividends and have done so for the last ten years or so. Of course, then why not just buy an etf that focuses on dividend growth?

===================================

Because then you don’t have to pay someone a 0.5% MER to hold your dividend stocks for you, and after 200 years that’s a difference of 11,355,267,562% in returns.

#114 jess on 03.12.19 at 3:56 pm

has the oecd evolved beyond it’s blacklists?

http://tinyurl.com/yxezcluz
========
From Transparency International

Today, there is talk of adopting a DPA scheme in Canada. This document is intended to provide a general review of the most frequent arguments against and in favour of DPAs, an in-depth analysis of the American and British DPAmodels, as well as key issues for consideration by Canada.

DPA Acknowledgements

The board of TI Canada is extremely grateful to the members of TI Canada’s Legal Committee for producing an outstanding report. Members of the Committee provided a broad range of views and opinions that greatly enriched the final report.

TI Canada would also like to thank the University of Toronto’s Faculty of Law, and Prof. Mariana Mota Prado in particular who, through a Donner Fellowship, provided the support of a student, Lewis Fainer. Mr. Fainer’s excellent work in reviewing the draft report and researching various points was invaluable.

The board would like to particularly commend the following members of the Legal Committee for their sustained and dedicated work in producing the report:
Matthew Konby, Chair TI Canada Legal Committee

Simon Laliberté, Member TI Canada Legal CommitteeMark Morrison, Member TI Canada Board of Directors

http://www.transparencycanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/DPA-Report-Final.pdf

#115 IHCTD9 on 03.12.19 at 4:00 pm

#46 Nonplused on 03.11.19 at 8:26 pm

If humans do have a spirit beyond what animals do, it is more evil.
_____

IMHO, humans have access to both good and evil. The greatest acts of love, the most heinous acts of darkness are both carried through this world by Humans.

IMHO, a war is raging for your allegiance. The goal is to boil down all unassailable truth and fact into a few simple choices. Once good and evil, right and wrong, truth and lies, are mixed, spun, and stewed enough to seem equally plausible – the stage is set.

Two conflicting versions for every fact, two dissenting opinions for every expert, two opposite media stories for every event. No agreement or consensus for any debate. Alternate endings for every historical record. Divisions along every crack.

We will be provided with every excuse, rationalization, and justification required to ease what’s left of our natural discomfort which we experience after making decisions we know are bad.

Free will is a gift, and a curse.

Animals get a free pass both ways.

#116 IHCTD9 on 03.12.19 at 4:11 pm

#105 Figure it Out on 03.12.19 at 1:56 pm

I grew up in Northwestern Ontario. I’d feel much safer on a big plane operated by one of the above than on a small one in the Canadian North..
___

Those 3 airlines crashed 5X+ as much as the others while flying the same planes – so something is up.

As for the NWO pilots, they can fly just fine (I grew up there too).

The problem is they’re just flying crap old beat planes.

#117 IHCTD9 on 03.12.19 at 4:16 pm

#106 Remembrancer on 03.12.19 at 1:56 pm

“For what happens to the children of man and what happens to the beasts is the same; as one dies, so dies the other. They all have the same breath, and man has no advantage over the beasts, for all is vanity. All go to one place. All are from the dust, and to dust all return. Who knows whether the spirit of man goes upward and the spirit of the beast goes down into the earth?” Ecclesiastes 3:19-21 English Standard Version
___

Yeah, but I’m guessing that is all meaningless and a chasing after the wind anyway :).

(not sure f you’re going to get that one or not)

#118 espressobob on 03.12.19 at 4:58 pm

Retail investors owning a basket of individual stocks suffer. All the attention one spends keeping track of performance and rebalancing a portfolio like this seems more like a nightmare.

ETF investors pay a small MER for say a dividend fund who’s weightings change on a daily basis.

There was a time when Baytex energy Corp was headlining my Canadian dividend fund. Check the current price on BTE.to.

Global index funds are easy to deal with and simple to manage.

#119 marcus on 03.12.19 at 5:09 pm

Boeing 737 Max 8 UPDATE: Reuters: Malka Galato, 47, a barley and wheat farmer whose field the plane crashed in, also described smoke and sparks from the back. “The plane was very close to the ground and it made a turn… Cows that were grazing in the fields ran in panic,” he said.

Tamirat Abera, 25, was walking past the field at the time. He said the plane turned sharply, trailing white smoke and items like clothes and papers, then crashed about 300 meters away. When a plane is shooting out orange flame, sparks and white smoke then black smoke from it’s tail section you can rule out MCAS and start thinking bomb or something in the luggage that caught fire.

#120 Exurban on 03.12.19 at 5:21 pm

#110 waiting on the westcoast

I’m not sure what you were trying to communicate there, but the actual story reads, quote, “In the Vancouver census metropolitan area, about 8.3 per cent of condominiums were owned by only non-resident owners, while another 2.9 per cent were owned by a mix of resident and non-resident owners.” So that gives a MINIMUM of 11% non-resident ownership, a lot of it concentrated at the high end of the market. It could well be significantly more; the instances of students and housewives owning multi-million dollar properties are well-documented, not least by municipal tax departments.

#121 John Walsh on 03.12.19 at 5:53 pm

Hi Garth, please pass on my contact information to Carol and Kelsey. I am in Oakville and have some various ideas about the best way my family and I could assist if needed. I am a Toronto Firefighter and my wife is a flight attendant with Air Canada just for piece of mind as it may assist Carol in reading through all the responses. Phone #416-407-5579

#122 Remembrancer on 03.12.19 at 5:54 pm

#119 IHCTD9 on 03.12.19 at 4:16 pm
Ya I got it…

I’ve always been of the mind it all ends the same way, just a matter of when and what you did along the way…

#123 Gravy Train on 03.12.19 at 6:31 pm

#46 Nonplused on 03.11.19 at 8:26 pm
“If humans do have a spirit beyond what animals do, it is more evil.”

#117 IHCTD9 on 03.12.19 at 4:00 pm
“IMHO, humans have access to both good and evil. The greatest acts of love, the most heinous acts of darkness are both carried through this world by Humans. IMHO, a war is raging for your allegiance.…”

I am reminded of the Cherokee tale, “Two Wolves.”

One evening, an elderly Cherokee brave told his grandson about a battle that goes on inside people.

He said, “My son, the battle is between two ‘wolves’ inside all of us. One is evil. It is anger, envy, jealousy, sorrow, regret, greed, arrogance, self-pity, guilt, resentment, inferiority, lies, false pride, superiority, and ego.

“The other is good. It is joy, peace, love, hope, serenity, humility, kindness, benevolence, empathy, generosity, truth, compassion, and faith.”

The grandson thought about it for a minute and then asked his grandfather, “Which wolf wins?”

The old Cherokee simply replied, “The one you feed.”

#124 Yellow Vest on 03.13.19 at 3:00 am

Howard on 03.12.19 at 5:37 am
#18 Terry on 03.11.19 at 6:27 pm
“A wise man once said: “If there are no dogs in Heaven, then when I die I want to go where they went.” Me, too.”

Correct. There are no animals in heaven since animals have no soul or spirit in them. Only humans do. I’ll take heaven over anywhere else because if everlasting life without fellowship with Christ is not hell then I don’t know what is!

————————————

Brace yourself Terry….humans are animals.

Take note of the first line in human taxonomy.

Kingdom: Animalia
Phylum: Chordata
Class: Mammalia
Order: Primates
Suborder: Haplorhini
Infraorder: Simiiformes
Family: Hominidae
Subfamily: Homininae
Tribe: Hominini
Genus: Homo
Species: H. sapiens
——————————–

Brace yourself Howard…it was “men” who decided all that scientific stuff. Which guarantees it does not mean it’s correct.

#125 Gravy Train on 03.13.19 at 11:48 am

#126 Yellow Vest on 03.13.19 at 3:00 am
“Brace yourself Howard…it was ‘men’ who decided all that scientific stuff. Which guarantees it does not mean it’s correct.” Here we go again! As Michiko Kakutani discusses in her book The Death of Truth: Notes on Falsehood in the Age of Trump, proven science is once more up for debate, and all opinions are held to be equally valid. The wisdom of the crowd squashes the power of research and expertise, and we are all left clinging to the opinions that best confirm our biases. :)