Surprises

As Trudeau’s former fixer/fluffer fudged and fidgeted for MPs on Wednesday, the dollar plopped. Of course that could also have been the Bank of Canada’s fault. At the same time Gerry Butts was saying everything’s cool in Ottawa (“just normal government ops”) the central bank was sending a different message.

For the record, the bank rate did not change this week. As expected. Stuck at 1.75% since last October. Could be there for some time.

Also for the record, Butts says his boss (Mr. Socks) and others did not tell JWR to go light on Lavalin, thus sparing it from a criminal trial. Yeah, he admits, they all talked about the engineering firm which stands accused of bribery etc. but nothing improper or illegal took place. He denied the Minister of Justice was punted downstairs to the Veterans portfolio as a result of her refusal to play nice. And he says Treasury Board president Jane Philpott’s resignation was, like, regrettable. So have a nice day. Nothing to see here.

But, facts are facts. The government’s lost three key ministers – Scott Brison, Jody Wilson-Raybould and Jane Philpott. The prime minister’s right-hand guy (Butts) also left in the night. Our ambassador to China was abruptly fired. Now that country’s retaliated. And Trump doesn’t even talk to us anymore.

But it gets worse. The economy, stupid.

The message from the central bank was crystal. Things have changed markedly since January when we were told rates would be “rising over time” during the course of 2019 and the economy was moving towards full capacity. Well, forget that.

The statement this week was peppered with phrases like “increased uncertainty”, a “sharper and more broadly-based slowdown”, business investment that’s “short of expectations” and this: “It now appears that the economy will be weaker in the first half of 2019 than the Bank projected in January.”

That’s why the dollar fell, and bond yields followed. Look at the chart below for a depiction of what’s transpired. The yield on a 10-year GoC bond has plunged from 2.5% last autumn to just 1.67% now – a decline of about a third. Because this heavily influences the cost of fixed-rate residential mortgages, expect cheaper money (as detailed here yesterday).

Down she goes... 10-yr gov't bonds plop 33%

So the expectation of rate increases has turned into the certainty of none. Overnight swaps indicate a 0% chance of bank tightening this year. If the economy gets worse, Governor Poloz might consider a cut. Ouch. Just in time for the October federal election. Would you have imagined, one year ago, that this would happen?

Well, the economy basically shuddered to zero at the end of 2018 in a slowdown that took economists by surprise. Now we have the prospect of economic reprisals from China and our industry is still suffering from tariff-man Trump’s duties on aluminum and steel. The geniuses in Ottawa have not yet built one foot of new pipeline, despite spending $4.5 billion in tax money and the real estate market – a cornerstone of the GDP – is wonky. The central bank is worried about exports, expansion and investment. Soon that will extend to jobs.

Well, this story’s still being written. The year might bring a recovery or a recession. Rates might stay put, or fall a little. The election could be dramatic or another moister love-in for T2. The feds might allow housing to correct and prices fall, or intervene to curry votes. Be ready for surprises.

Meanwhile the year should also bring a US-China trade deal, a solution to Brexit and new peaks for equity markets. Global growth will chug higher and scores of little beaver-investors will wish they’d not listened to [email protected] and put all their faith in maple.

134 comments ↓

#1 mike from mtl on 03.06.19 at 4:55 pm

Told you, no rate increases.

Bond market on long end didn’t really believe the FED or BoC and turns out they were right.

#2 NotLegalAdvice on 03.06.19 at 4:58 pm

Mattamy home has been selling like crazy. The line ups in the GTA have been unreal again.

60 pre-construction homes sold in 3 hours. What’s going on?

I called their sales office and was advised that they will be building another 200 shortly and to wait it out.

850K was the going rate on a 2800 sq ft home. HUGE price cut.

So I went to Great Gulf…looks like they having $50k off and even $80k off certain properties in the $1.2mill range.

That’s someone’s down payment…. gone! Wiped out if they bought in the previous phase.

There will always be a greater fool…

#3 Penny Henny on 03.06.19 at 4:59 pm

Did not Turner investments not so recently bump up the allocation to Maple? And would it be wise to readjust that at this time.

The TSX has outperformed all other markets YTD, so that was a good call. Now resist the temptation to bounce around and maintain an appropriate Canadian weighting – roughly 20%. – Garth

#4 AK on 03.06.19 at 5:03 pm

“As Trudeau’s former fixer/fluffer fudged and fidgeted for MPs on Wednesday, the dollar plopped. ”
=====================================
Wow, Butts was more entertaining than that ass clown Cohen was a couple of weeks ago.

Lisa Raitt made him look like a complete amateur.

#5 JonBoy on 03.06.19 at 5:09 pm

It blows my mind that this “sudden slowdown” in the economy took anyone by surprise, especially the experts.

1. Real estate sales are down (big part of the economy)

2. Car sales are down (hits manufacturing, shipping, retail, etc) for the first two months and are usually a reflection of purchasing and the economy overall.

3. Actual retail sales were down in December (compared to previous years), which should’ve been a major harbinger of woe. If people aren’t buying around Christmas, they aren’t buying any time.

4. Rising interest rates mean that insane debt loads are even less serviceable.

5. Energy industry is still getting hammered and the drama teacher isn’t helping anything on that front.

6. High inflation that’s reducing expendable income.

7. Stagnant wage growth.

8. Tariffs on a number of our exports.

9. A brewing trade/tech/political war with China.

What was supposed to drive the economy? Latté and yoga pants purchases?

#6 Exilled on 03.06.19 at 5:10 pm

Sir Garth:

Murpheys Law. It only gets worse.

#7 KTownGuido on 03.06.19 at 5:12 pm

Interesting times here in Kelowna. Inventory going up but prices are not falling at all – in fact there are still places going above (insane) asking prices.

I don’t see prices falling here substantially – rents are still sky high.

All the boomers still wanting to retire high will hold prices up more than other places. Those who missed their opportunity 10 years ago will never get that chance again.

Cheap(er) money will just give us another leg up.

#8 What's Your Number on 03.06.19 at 5:13 pm

Hi Garth,
Love the blog. Just curious if the other readers have a financial retirement number. Assuming you had no workplace pension in place and had to rely on savings, cpp, and oas, how much would you have to have in liquid investable savings before you would feel comfortable retiring.

#9 Ex-Cowtown on 03.06.19 at 5:15 pm

Meanwhile in Alberta, Notley just hired a rabidly anti-oil activist to the Alberta Energy Regulator, the body that oversees all oil and gas development in Alberta.

It seems like the Crazy Pills were not being handed out only in Ottawa. A large number were airlifted to the Alberta Legislature.

Hiring this bozo to oversee oil and gas development is like contracting the Suzuki Foundation to build the Trans Mountain Pipeline.

The only saving grace is that’ll it’ll be worth every penny that Kenney will have to pay in severance to kick the eco-grifter to the curb.

#10 The Real Mark on 03.06.19 at 5:15 pm

The Bank of Canada statement basically laid out the case for rate cuts, but didn’t actually pull the trigger.

Which leads one to question, what might be the trigger? Poloz doesn’t seem willing to act when the data clearly shows the necessity of rate cuts, data that they acknowledge has been far weaker than anticipated. Is the implication here that basically the Canadian banking system must suffer a systemic event before they’d consider lowering the rates?

What recourse does the government have, if the Bank of Canada is so chronically beneath their inflation targeting mandate that damage to the Canadian economy is significant? The BoC Governor, whether in fact, or merely by implication, enjoys a lot of independence, but can the government punish him for bad behavior? Without causing a JWR-like firestorm when the PM (allegedly) punished her.

“Would you have imagined, one year ago, that this would happen?”

Yes. See my previous comments.

#11 Hawk on 03.06.19 at 5:24 pm

The powers that be, know they can either save the loonie or the housing market, but not both.

They will choose the housing market since most sheeple won’t blame the them for the weakening dollar.

So keep your particle board mansions, or concrete boxes in the skies, but be happy with cat food and Netflix.

#12 JSS on 03.06.19 at 5:25 pm

If things get stormy, will TSX get hit? What can we expect for TSX by year end?

Unlikely. Banks and energy dominate the index. A recession of average length and depth should not do much. – Garth

#13 The Real Mark on 03.06.19 at 5:27 pm

“6. High inflation that’s reducing expendable income.”

CPI (inflation) has averaged 1.5%/annum for the past decade, which is probably the lowest its been over the lifetimes of anyone participating in this blog.

Just how is that ‘high inflation”?

#14 Parksville Prankster on 03.06.19 at 5:34 pm

#8 What’s Your Number on 03.06.19 at 5:13 pm

Back of the envelope suggests that you’ll need 250K per $1000 per month draw (based on an average 5% pre-tax yield or inflation plus 3%).

So, if you need 4K per month, you’ll need a cool millski chugging away for you, 8K per month? 2 Millski and so on.

If you assume CPP and OAS of 1K per month, then you can adjust your investing accordingly.

Of course this assumes average returns and no unexpected draw downs of principal.

Another way to think about it is if you started with 100 dollars and took out a dollar (1%) per year, you’d withdraw all the money in 100 years. Add in historical inflation, and your 100 bucks would last 42 years at a buck per year adjusted for inflation.

So you also have to decide if you want to leave anything to your wife, mistress, kids, or dog. If you don’t, then you can add another 1% to your draw down rates.

#15 Dutchy on 03.06.19 at 5:35 pm

Meanwhile in Montreal, real estate values are catching up:

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/montreal
-home-sales-rise-8-in-february-marking
-four-straight-years
-of-growth-1.1224533

#16 Islandgirl on 03.06.19 at 5:38 pm

So as the economy bounces around we are nearing the time when it’s time to renew our mortgage. Yup, we bought in 2015 and next spring we renew. I’m not too worried right now. We bought within our means (2.7x our annual income) and our house even with the ups and downs is still worth more than we paid, smaller/older house on smaller lot down the street is listed for $150 more than we paid so house is worth probably the same or more. The question is, we have had to do some reno’s recently (second storey deck was unsafe) and want to amalgamate the debt a little into the mortgage to get things all in one place and are thinking of floating the idea past our bank to see if they will take us on. Any suggestions out there on best path forward? I’m not concerned about the stress test, we can handle that.

#17 yorkville renter on 03.06.19 at 5:41 pm

#8 – I’m thinking my number is $2mm + the commercial property rent we get… however, more is definitely better here

#18 Andrew on 03.06.19 at 5:41 pm

Today Williams at the New York Fed indicated negative interests rates are not 100% out of the question in the future. Curious about your thoughts on what trying to make negative interests rates could mean for everyone. Thanks

Not gonna happen. – Garth

#19 Alessio on 03.06.19 at 5:49 pm

Garth- Thought you said more rate increases in 2019? Looks like there will be cuts instead. Also, if the economy is so weak why is the stock market so strong?

Actually I quoted economists’ predictions for rates (I’m out of that business). No cuts, as stated, unless the economy tanks. And the TSX is doing great because it was seriously undervalued and our corps are making dough. – Garth

#20 ex-Van on 03.06.19 at 5:54 pm

Perhaps we should all put all our money in crypto.

Wait, no — don’t do that. Remember that supposedly dead crypto CEO who took his money to the grave because he forgot to tell people the password to his laptop which held his company’s crypto reserves in a cold wallet?

Well, they actually cracked the laptop. They found no cold wallet, no coins, no nothing. Perhaps they will find a receipt for a one-way flight to the Caymen Islands?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-01/quadriga-has-6-cold-wallets-but-they-don-t-hold-any-crypto?srnd=technology-vp

#21 Dolce Vita on 03.06.19 at 5:56 pm

#5 JonBoy

That was good and I liked your namesake in The Walton’s.

In answer to your “What was supposed to drive the economy?”:

Hemp.

Goodnight JonBoy.

#22 Long-Time Lurker on 03.06.19 at 5:58 pm

(From yesterday)

Speaking of Sweden:

Back in the 80’s when I was a teenager, I had a friend who would sometimes extoll to me the wonders of the social welfare state of Sweden. He’d say things to me like, “They have free day care there.” I’d be wondering, “How do you provide free services to everybody? Don’t you have to pay for that? Who’s going to pay for that? You’re not going to pay your babysitter?”

Later on in the mid 90’s (as I recall) I read an article in a newspaper of how the welfare state of Sweden ran out of (other peoples’) money and went into a financial crisis. I remember thinking, “Well, that didn’t go well.” By the way, that guy became an accountant.

Also back in the 90’s, I remember seeing a show on Greece and how everyone there got these long vacations and benefits. I was wondering, “How can they afford that? Why do we have to work so hard here?” Later in the 2000s I read of how Greece had their financial crisis and had trouble paying off all their debts. It turns out all the benefits they were getting were being paid by debt.

There’s no free lunch.

#23 Rick on 03.06.19 at 5:59 pm

DELETED

#24 Terry on 03.06.19 at 6:00 pm

“Meanwhile the year should also bring a US-China trade deal, a solution to Brexit and new peaks for equity markets. Global growth will chug higher and scores of little beaver-investors will wish they’d not listened to [email protected] and put all their faith in maple.”

Sounds good to me Garth! I’m invested in U.S. & Global equities with just a touch of maple stuff, Ka Ching! It really doesn’t matter what happens in Canada anymore…………nothing to see here either.

#25 Dolce Vita on 03.06.19 at 6:05 pm

You’re writing as if of 2 minds Garth, understandable.

Either we are in a 2010-11 funk or it’s a recession. First good news is you say Cdn. corps. making money. That’s a good sign, finally.

On Butts, I watched and listened and concluded:

Farcical.

Sounded like a school child affected by faerie dust. Sugar and spice, everything nice including the diminutive voice.

This persona would never have made it to the position he had if this well crafted act were the truth. Walmart Greeter, yes, Principal Secretary, no. Drama Teacher coached, yes.

And still on the “experienced differently” kick. Honest to God, how stupid do they think Canadian’s are?

If I am wrong and Butts really is as he presented himself, heaven help Canada if he was Trudeau’s “brains”. No wonder Trump ate us for lunch on NAFTA and continues to ignores us.

#26 Brian Ripley on 03.06.19 at 6:12 pm

The 2yr and 10yr Bank of Canada Bonds are inverted to the Bank of Canada Bank rate on my Yield Curve chart http://www.chpc.biz/yield-curve.html

…and the 10yr less the 2yr bond plot is 14 beeps away from inversion.

​In May, June and July of 2007 the 10-2yr spread was negative 10 beeps and the TSX Real Estate Index tipped over into plunge-ville.

But as of now, in Toronto,
http://www.chpc.biz/toronto-housing.html

…real estate at street level is being bought on the dip while cash buyers remain bullish on the TSX real estate index.

The argument must be that continuing low rates of interest will still move whatever remaining savers there are …into consumption.

#27 Storm Heading Our Way on 03.06.19 at 6:16 pm

It will be ok for a better day with a golden sky above one day soon.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zOGoTccNfHs

#28 Penny Henny on 03.06.19 at 6:17 pm

#8 What’s Your Number on 03.06.19 at 5:13 pm
Hi Garth,
Love the blog. Just curious if the other readers have a financial retirement number. Assuming you had no workplace pension in place and had to rely on savings, cpp, and oas, how much would you have to have in liquid investable savings before you would feel comfortable retiring.
///////////

Silly rabbit.
What are your needs? How much do you need per year.

Great retirement calculator attached below

https://financialmentor.com/calculator/best-retirement-calculator

#29 Not 1st on 03.06.19 at 6:17 pm

3yrs ago I locked down at 2.8%. When that comes due rates will be right in the same range and Canada will have even more debt.

No modern economy falls off the rails in 6 weeks. Been papered over with sovereign debt that we will never pay back. Welcome to Ontario 2.0. Remember when they said Trudeau should keep deficits low in case we hit a rough patch. Yeah that.

Canada can survive a regular cyclical recession. What it can’t survive is another Trudeau term.

#30 What's with the on 03.06.19 at 6:19 pm

Hells Angels again?

#31 Dolce Vita on 03.06.19 at 6:25 pm

#18 Andrew

What happens?

You get 0% interest and once a year you pay a tax on the money you have in savings; hence, negative interest.

Have a small amount of money in an Italian bank account, just in case money, and that’s what you get (give).

Makes you grateful to be Canadian (and have a Cdn. cash back credit card…when you tell the Italian’s about that their mouths drop and they do not believe you).

-Buonanotte and Ciao from Technical Recession (negative interest) Italia.

#32 Shawn Allen on 03.06.19 at 6:27 pm

Trudeau Opposition Evolution

2015 – He’s Just Not Ready…

2019 – He’s Just Not Trusted…

#33 NoName on 03.06.19 at 6:34 pm

Interesting read.

Funny in europe when you are cutting trees and burning them to produce energy its green, but burning coal its not…

The plaintiffs all claim to be impacted by biomass energy production. Coming from Estonia, Ireland, France, Romania, Slovakia, and the U.S., they see things a different way, arguing that:

“RED II will accelerate widespread forest devastation and significantly increase greenhouse gas emissions by not counting CO2 emissions from burning wood fuels. Wood-fired power plants emit more CO2 per unit of energy generated than coal plants, but RED II counts these emissions as zero. The treatment of forest biomass as low or zero–carbon renewable energy in both RED I and RED II has and will continue to increase harvesting pressure on forests in Europe and North America to meet the growing demand for woody biomass fuel in the EU.”

https://electrek.co/2019/03/06/biomass-eu-renewable-energy/amp/

#34 Smartalox on 03.06.19 at 6:40 pm

So I didn’t get to watch the testimonies today, but I did read the text of Michael Wernick’s statement, and something caught my eye:

Finally, the Committee may wish to hold hearings on the Attorney General of Canada’s Directive on Civil Litigation Involving Indigenous Peoples, issued by the former Attorney General on January 11, 2019.
The Directive to all Government of Canada litigators could mark a profound change in Canada’s legal landscape. However, it could be repealed or gutted at the stroke of a pen and turn to ashes. All political parties now need to be clear with Canadians on the future of this Directive.

To me, this thickened the plot considerably, so I did some googling. Apparently, AFTER she was informed that she was to be shuffled out of cabinet (on Jan 4), Jody Wilson-Reybould ordered one last Directive (on Jan 11).

Here’s a link to the Attorney General’s exiting directive:
https://www.justice.gc.ca/eng/csj-sjc/ijr-dja/dclip-dlcpa/litigation-litiges.html

And a summary for those (like myself) not conversant in legalese:
https://ottawacitizen.com/opinion/columnists/boswell-jody-wilson-rayboulds-last-act-as-justice-minister-a-big-step-in-indigenous-litigation-reform

From the article:
The directive encourages out-of-court problem-solving and insists that combative legal contests in front of judges should be pursued only reluctantly, as a “last resort.” It’s all about reaching negotiated settlements instead of habitually fighting interminable lawsuits.

The new mindset “emphasizes the importance of resolving conflicts expeditiously and collaboratively, reducing the use of litigation and the courts.” Wilson-Raybould was quoted in a press release, universally ignored by news media at the time, saying: “Moving forward with recognition and reconciliation means we cannot continue to rely on adversarial court proceedings to lead the way.”

There are only broad, conceptual similarities to the proposed (and controversially rejected) deferred prosecution agreement at the heart of the SNC-Lavalin affair. DPAs are also about striking out-of-court deals — “remediation agreements” — to avoid trials, though these would apply to criminal rather than civil cases.

#35 Barb on 03.06.19 at 6:45 pm

Curious as to what would be/have been the lesser of two evils:

1. Obey(ed) the USA extradition request by arresting MW at the airport, which in turn led to China imprisoning Canadian “tourists”, and cancelling Canola orders.

2. Deny the USA’s extradition request.

#36 Trending on 03.06.19 at 6:45 pm

No correlation which direction is correct?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D0-_PuSWkAIHKiQ.jpg:large

#37 AK on 03.06.19 at 6:47 pm

#29 Not 1st on 03.06.19 at 6:17 pm

“Canada can survive a regular cyclical recession. What it can’t survive is another Trudeau term.”
=====================================
We will never know, cause Trudeau will more than likely resign soon.

#38 Smoking Man on 03.06.19 at 6:50 pm

Loving the USDCAD right now.

#39 DQ on 03.06.19 at 6:54 pm

Hey Pink Snow, aka M44BC, why did your pink snow blog suddenly become private? The information you provide there copied in the comments here is great. Did someone send you a cease and desist letter? I’ve since requested permission to view your site but you haven’t granted my request yet. Please keep it coming.

#40 Shawn Allen on 03.06.19 at 6:55 pm

On Meng, the Chinese prisoner lady

We get to keep $10 million if she escapes.

Let her know the next time there is a Chinese ship in the harbour. Tell her, now don’t you go trying to sneak onto that ship and escape.

Problem solved. “Sorry Trump she got away. Our bad, wish we were as smart as you. Now all we have to show for it is this extra $10 million and no longer the expense of her trial and house arrest. Drat. Real sorry.”

#41 I Had To Verify This on 03.06.19 at 6:57 pm

This indeed happened which was not appropriate in my opinion. They could have held up signs instead, but will not comment on this behaviour in a formal hearing.

https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/put-a-pin-in-it-did-you-notice-what-butts-wernick-wore-on-their-lapels-at-the-snc-lavalin-hearing

#42 Buy Low Sell High on 03.06.19 at 7:11 pm

Re photo: Justy and Gerry would reminisce in their retirement years how they took Canadians for quite the thrill ride back in 2019!
“Hey Ger, hang on tight, we’re heading into a big curve!”

#43 Craig on 03.06.19 at 7:24 pm

“And Trump doesn’t even talk to us anymore.”

Best news of the day so far !

#44 You know on 03.06.19 at 7:29 pm

I think people usually over promise and under deliver….what a joke…rates will rise…rates will fall…the economy is great …the economy sucks…there to much debt and we care…. now we don’t … suck’n and blow ! What a joke.

#45 TurnerNation on 03.06.19 at 7:30 pm

From the $30 Burger + Beer dept. – Taxes and tip in
(Soon to be $35 avec Carbon scam).

The Vancouverites are coming, the Vancouverites are coming…to Toronto.

Past few years has seen an invasion of successful BC-based chains into Hogtown:

– The Pint pubs.
– Donnelly group opened 3 pubs
– Cactus club came.

Soon, another.

https://www.blogto.com/eat_drink/2019/03/vancouver-pub-caesars-toronto-location/

Et tu, NFLD?

#46 not 1st on 03.06.19 at 7:37 pm

#41 I Had To Verify This on 03.06.19 at 6:57 pm
—–

Looks like Butts has a sickle and hammer on his lapel. Suits him.

Somehow we are supposed to believe he is from common stock, a coal mining family. Pfft.

#47 ImGonnaBeSick on 03.06.19 at 7:39 pm

Garth, what do you think of the new Indian Scout Bobber?

#48 Fish on 03.06.19 at 7:49 pm

Privatization of Canada’s electrical grid accelerating Pete Evans · CBC News · Posted: Mar 30, 2011 9:02 PM ET | Last Updated: April 4, 2011

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/privatization-of-canada-s-electrical-grid-accelerating-1.1016930

Manitoba Hydro cancels $4.2M payment to municipalities for Manitoba-Minnesota transmission line support

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/manitoba-hydro-compensation-package-municipalities-1.5037833

#49 not 1st on 03.06.19 at 7:54 pm

#37 AK on 03.06.19 at 6:47 pm
—-

Never estimate the ignorance of the average voter. They never like to nip a problem in the bud. Has to go full scale nuclear before they step up for change. Lots of young people are equivocating in their parents basement, he did something bad, but oh that hair. This is the same generation that made the Khardashians billionaires.

Libs prepared to sweep it all under the rug.

https://blog.338canada.com/

#50 A Yank in BC on 03.06.19 at 8:02 pm

#8 What’s Your Number

Depends on how well you want to live and if you plan to leave an inheritance. As a general rule-of-thumb, have 25 times annual salary saved-up. Your “paycheck” remains the same and you will be well regarded by those you leave behind.

#51 Nonplused on 03.06.19 at 8:13 pm

Well, I’ve known that we are in a recession or at least a period of sub-par growth for some time. But I am in the oil patch.

My thinking is pretty simple. Canada is a great country with a lot of modern manufacturing capacity. Well great so is South Korea. What’s always put Canada over the top is that we have a lot of resources which we can export and bring in foreign money. Really, the resources we have compare to the size of the population is pretty much the envy of the world with the exception of a very few countries.

So it stands to reason that with oil in the toilet, our manufacturing exports shunned, and our taxes rising, a recession was inevitable. Alberta has been in recession for 4 years. Where Alberta goes, the rest of the country follows. Just not all at once.

#52 David Driven on 03.06.19 at 8:24 pm

Trudeau, not Poloz , will make the call to lower rates towards the election. On paper he can borrow and spend with announcing a crushing deficit. Of course it’s all a sham, as Trudeau is himself. No new debt is food debt. But likely the lower job prospects and lower wages will suck more moisters into the ballot box with visions of free sugar plums so they won’t have to turn in the extra car because of unaffordable pmts…given that the taxpayer is picking up the tab for free babysitting. I make another forecast, since my recession call was on the mark, Canada will become an IMF problem child no matter who wins the election. We’re technically in recession. Trudeau can’t continue to float Muslim only hiring and the chickens will come home to roost when Alberta declares itself a have not province in the next year.

#53 Angela Merkel on 03.06.19 at 8:25 pm

KTownGuido: Kelowna prices are down 14% (114K) on detached homes in 7 months since housing bubble #2 in Kelowna popped.

Inventory is above 6 months – buyers market.

Two dates that real estate insiders in Kelowna are well aware of:

April 30, 2008

July 31, 2018

Not hard to pick off cycles if you have the right data to look at. The latter date will become more clear to the Okanagan public in the years to come.

This stuff works like clockwork.

This follows the global trend in real estate dropping, including the area that affects BC the most: Vancouver, BC.

#54 45north on 03.06.19 at 8:30 pm

The message from the central bank was crystal. Things have changed markedly since January when we were told rates would be “rising over time” during the course of 2019 and the economy was moving towards full capacity. Well, forget that.
The statement this week was peppered with phrases like “increased uncertainty”, a “sharper and more broadly-based slowdown”, business investment that’s “short of expectations” and this: “It now appears that the economy will be weaker in the first half of 2019 than the Bank projected in January.”

so in an instant things go from good to bad but as you say we don’t know for sure

we do know that we have record high debt.

we do know that the party in power is in disarray. Talking about the Liberals, we can say that when their position is threatened, pretensions of higher values are thrown overboard. Now this is not necessarily a bad thing. If declared up-front. The message from the Bank of Canada, had the phrase “a sharper and more broadly-based slowdown”. The phrase, if realized, would mean that the middle class would find its position threatened.

I have in mind, the City of Chicago. The character and nature of Chicago has changed: Wide swaths of formerly middle class neighbourhoods have been replaced by poor. Some have been replaced by rich.

What I’m saying, is that we’re not prepared for “a sharper and more broadly-based slowdown”. In fact, the first problem is recognizing it. I see denial, in the large and small. In the large category, is the Liberal Party which refuses to recognize the harm that it is doing to the oil and gas industry. Next would be the real estate industry. In the small, would be individual families, going into debt.

#55 Lord Sam on 03.06.19 at 8:38 pm

Lookout if Canada enters a job recession.

This will lead to a new bottom for real estate prices in disorderly fashion that will cause interest rates to be cut at the same time.

And that my friends is the ideal time to head out shopping for a new home.

If you do not lose your job in a circumstance like this you will see panic by over leveraged people who have lost their jobs and nothing screams motivation like not having an income to pay the mortgage.

As for you boomers who are waiting this out – might be looking at about another 8 years to get back to 2017. Hopefully that doesn’t cramp your retirement plan if all of your money is in your house and you expect to withdrawal from it at some point in the next 5 years. I mean, there will be some money there, just not as much as there could have been or could be in the next decade or longer.

Timing is everything.

#56 Nonplused on 03.06.19 at 8:41 pm

A follow up comment,

Probably the closest comparable country to Canada in the world today is, yes, Russia. Large land mass (largest in the world). Relatively small population (California itself has near 1/2 the population). Huge oil reserves. Weird politics.

Russia would not be building high tech military equipment and bombing Syria if they did not have all of the manufacturing capacity of Europe at their disposal due to their vast oil and gas resources. That’s kind of how Canada works too, only our market is the US, and we should keep that in mind before we do anything stupid.

Canada is rich because we sell oil and gas to the US (and some other stuff). Keep that in mind when you do your political calculations and protest pipelines. If those pipelines don’t get built, there may not be any breakfast cereal for you.

(Yes I know we grow more than enough of our own food, and export some of that too. But the economy is more complicated than that, especially if you don’t have a job.)

#57 k on 03.06.19 at 8:41 pm

Hey Garth Great stuff as usual . I guess I’m crazy conservative financially …but I sold my Kitsilano T House for $ 1 Million 3 months ago (bought for 500k 6 years ago) and combined with other savings put $1.5 mil into Vancity Credit Union on a 3 year escalator 2.5% 2.75% and 4.05 % . I am retired since I was 52 years old . Now 63. No other income so collect CPP since 60 years old. So no clawback from interest. I’m happy ! It sure seems better than a 1.7% 10 yr Canadian T Bill. I think Vancity made a bad move. All is insured by the province. BC would have to go broke not to pay me. Hey……ya never know ! Keep up the good work Garth ! I might just invest with you soon ! I know….small potatoes ! I worked hard for everything . I am a fortunate Canadian .

#58 Nonplused on 03.06.19 at 8:49 pm

#52 David Driven

I wouldn’t worry about it. Trudeau is done. His own party will have to replace him to have a chance. JWR is probably their (the Liberals) best way forward at this point.

Can you imagine what’s happened? A female native is now the best shot the Liberals have of forming a government!! Well, I would say that is progress. Too bad it took Trudeau acting like a real Turdeau to make it happen.

#59 Real estate investor on 03.06.19 at 8:49 pm

#2 NotLegalAdvice on 03.06.19 at 4:58 pm
Mattamy home has been selling like crazy. The line ups in the GTA have been unreal again.

60 pre-construction homes sold in 3 hours. What’s going on?

I called their sales office and was advised that they will be building another 200 shortly and to wait it out.

850K was the going rate on a 2800 sq ft home. HUGE price cut.

So I went to Great Gulf…looks like they having $50k off and even $80k off certain properties in the $1.2mill range.

That’s someone’s down payment…. gone! Wiped out if they bought in the previous phase.

There will always be a greater fool…
—————————

So if the lineups are crazy again how long do you think it will take for prices to start rising again?

Exactly

#60 Duffy on 03.06.19 at 8:53 pm

While under soft interrogation today Mr. Butts more than once mentioned the importance of the 9 thousand jobs at stake in Quebec and how it was perfectly acceptable for the PMO to gently nudge JWR to take action to save those jobs.
To my knowledge no one from the government made any effort to address the convoy from the western provinces when it arrived in Ottawa, protesting the 100 thousand jobs lost there.
You don’t have to be the father of a 5 year old to figure out where the Liberals get their oxygen tanks filled.

#61 akashic record on 03.06.19 at 8:54 pm

Enbridge Inc. is delaying the date when it expects its replacement Line 3 crude oil pipeline to be in expanded service, in what is being called a “major blow” to the oil industry in Canada. According to Bloomberg, the project had previously been set to begin shipping crude in Q4 2019. But now the company is pushing back construction due to slow permitting in Minnesota.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-02/enbridge-pipeline-delayed-a-year-in-hit-to-canadian-oil-industry

#62 Jeff on 03.06.19 at 9:03 pm

like Harper never broke the law….the G20 Summit and locking up innocent Canadians comes to mind…and yes, the Treasury Report states that the RCMP was in control of security and answered to the PMO’s office…he lied and got off

#63 Robert Ash on 03.06.19 at 9:07 pm

I found this Ted discussion, by Micheal Shellenberger, quite an interesting commentary on the problems, with renewable energy sources…if you have 17 minutes… it is worth a review. I have been Gobsmacked by the Foolishness of our Leaders. I did spend a lot of my life in Process Engineering, so perhaps, I have a bias… Ok I do… but this presentation, is a very interesting commentary on why Non Science Politicians, should be discouraged from their involvement in Climate Change…. I also belive that Butts, and Trudeau, are so idealistic, that they felt they could replace the Revenues lost in the Downsizing of the Oil and Gas industry with Marijuanna. It is that problematic, that I arrived at that conclusion….We must make better choices, Leaders with Experience and Academic qualifications, to assess and direct policy… Canada, is suffering poor decisions, and the pain is going to continue… Mellanials.. Less Governement, will be much better for your future…It Was Nuclear all along. I am all for Strick Pollution abatement, and Monitoring… 100%, but with effective strategies, and realism.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N-yALPEpV4w

#64 Linda M Youell on 03.06.19 at 9:08 pm

Observation about inflation:
The Official Number of 1.5% per annum is deceiving. It’s my experience that manufacturers and suppliers tweak the product so that the purchaser gets less for the same price (or a very slightly higher – 1.5% – price). For example, a recent purchase at a big box store was a package that contained 96 items, at $20. The previous container had 100 items, at $19. Even if the shopper noted the $1 price increase, it’s unlikely he/she would notice the 4 fewer items.
A package of coffee beans no longer is 16 oz – “a pound” of coffee; it’s 12 oz. I remember the creeping weight loss of candy bars in the 1970s and 1980s: my candy bar shrank from 3 oz to 2.75 oz, and then shrank again, aided and abetted by the switch to Metric.
But what the heck, I still bought and enjoyed the candy bar, and the smaller size was better for me. Weight loss through CPI.
Do CPI calculations take this type of manipulation into consideration?

I really appreciate the blog, Garth. Please continue.

#65 Not 1st on 03.06.19 at 9:09 pm

#51 Nonplused on 03.06.19 at 8:13 pm
—–

And yet we have people who think our country will thrive with cannibas Starbucks and green jobs. The amount of know nothings in the nation is absolutely staggering.

#66 The Real Mark on 03.06.19 at 9:17 pm

“Canada will become an IMF problem child no matter who wins the election. “

With a 1/3rd of the national debt per capita as the US? Not a chance. Where do you come up with this stuff?

The US, not even officially in recession “yet” is adding debt at a rate equivalent to Canada’s annual deficits every day or two.

#67 Kilt on 03.06.19 at 9:26 pm

“Would you have imagined, one year ago, that this would happen?”

Well, in November I suggested we would be in Recession by Q1 2019. Also said oil would go down to $40. It only got to $42, but I took the opportunity to load up when it did.
We haven’t quite hit a recession, and I’m now thinking it will just be a long period of no growth rather than negative. Well see. Quite a few here also doubted the 2 to 3 rate increase we kept hearing about.
They won’t drop rates, they would be fools to do so. They were stupid to drop rates in 2016. Spring market will be slow, but it won’t be a total disaster. Except maybe YVR. Now if we can only prevent governments from focusing too much on “affordable housing”. The people that can’t afford to buy aren’t going to be the ones buying the bottom when prices do become affordable.

Kilt.

#68 Mohammad on 03.06.19 at 9:33 pm

THanks Garth for keeping me away from evil people that would have ruined my sleep. I shall say a prayer for you tonight. Long live the king!

#69 Rexx Rock on 03.06.19 at 9:42 pm

Looks like Big Butts smoothed everything over and T2 can go back to being our GQ PM.Its all about looks and popularity these days.
A strong economy =strong currency,looks like Canada doesn’t fit the bill.Like I said so many times before but everyone wants to keep drinking the kool aid,interest rates are going back to 0.25%.30 year fixed mortgages at 1% will be introduced.Just like Japan because the debt is to high to service it.Listened to Con man Carney the other day I still can’t believe people believe what crap he spews out.He has as much crediblity as a politician or some criminal.Poloz the clown isn’t any better but at least his side kick partner looks honest.

#70 Vampire Studies on 03.06.19 at 9:46 pm

57k – I would stay away from any larger credit union with exposure to the bubbly markets in BC. There is no way the BC govt could bail you out.

I remember when getting my first house I went to my credit union which was barely a half hour away. They said they would not loan for that community as it was served by another credit union. As dumb as that sounds today, that was the true spirit of CUs back then – to help in their community.

Now they continue to merge to gain market share and operate more like a bank and ding you with bulls*&t
fees to pay their execs.

Check out the smaller CUs in outlying communities. See what their balance sheets are. $0.25B might be safe enough for stability, but small enough for a bailout.

https://creditunionsofbc.com/

#71 Stan Brooks on 03.06.19 at 9:49 pm

#5 JonBoy on 03.06.19 at 5:09 pm
It blows my mind that this “sudden slowdown” in the economy took anyone by surprise, especially the experts.

What was supposed to drive the economy? Latté and yoga pants purchases?

Spot on.

Juts do your investing and diversification considering the facts (find the real facts first, not the noise around it), not the opinions.

When TSHTF there would be no one to help the average Joe.

This economy is about to fall from a cliff with a nominal GDP contraction, combined with real inflation problem.

If we take away the credit super bubble impact that drove ‘the economy’ in the last decade or two, we face a real economy of 40 % from the current.
We will get there one way or another and probably overshoot on the downside.

———————————–

Real Interest rates are already strongly negative. With BoC rates at 1.75 %, bank rates on accounts sub 1 % and real inflation-cost of living at 8-10 %, maybe more (official inflation as 23 % as of lately) we are looking at 5-6 % negative real rates.

Nominal rates turning negative from 1. 75 % is just a small detail in the big scheme of things. With the only direction for rates down here, it could happen but it won’t matter.

It will be just further small increase in the already significantly negative real interest rates.

If not for the incompetents at BoC and CMHC taxpayer backing, real rates would have been in double digits for the brave few who could be willing to risk their money in an uncertain market.

#72 Diversified in Oakville on 03.06.19 at 9:59 pm

#8 What’s Your Number

Mine is 2M net worth, with 1.4M in liquid investments to draw from.
Almost there……………………

#73 no nothing on 03.06.19 at 10:01 pm

@#65 Not 1st on 03.06.19 at 9:09 pm
#51 Nonplused on 03.06.19 at 8:13 pm
—–

And yet we have people who think our country will thrive with cannibas Starbucks and green jobs. The amount of know nothings in the nation is absolutely staggering.
___________________________________

You make a great leader for us.
Keep up the good work.

#74 Gravy Train on 03.06.19 at 10:02 pm

#65 Not 1st on 03.06.19 at 9:09 pm
“The amount of know-nothings in the nation is absolutely staggering.” You hit the nail on the head with that remark! Take a look in the glass! :)

#75 billybobjoe on 03.06.19 at 10:08 pm

@#62 Jeff on 03.06.19 at 9:03 pm
like Harper never broke the law….the G20 Summit and locking up innocent Canadians comes to mind…and yes, the Treasury Report states that the RCMP was in control of security and answered to the PMO’s office…he lied and got off
______________________________

not to mention the nepotism.
hey deerhurst resort, here’s a couple mil of tax payer dollars for a nice reno. Nobody from the summit even went. politicians are mostly all the same no matter the stripe.

#76 not 1st on 03.06.19 at 10:10 pm

#66 The Real Mark on 03.06.19 at 9:17 pm

You know that Canada is not the US right? They have the reserve currency. Their debt is inconsequential with that power. Also, the federal govt has $100T in assets. They could pay off the debt tomorrow if they wanted to.

Unfortunately ours will become sovereign legacy debt passed on generationally with no hope of reducing it with an aging population coming down the pike.

#77 Binder Dundat on 03.06.19 at 10:11 pm

@nonplused:

“A follow up comment,

Probably the closest comparable country to Canada in the world today is, yes, Russia. Large land mass (largest in the world). Relatively small population (California itself has near 1/2 the population).”

California’s population (and GDP, for that matter), are well beyond Canada’s. We are truly small potatoes:

Population of California: 39.54 million (2017)
Population of Canada: 36.71 million (2017)

GDP of California: $2.7 trillion
GDP of Canada: 1.653 trillion USD (2017)

#78 The Real Mark on 03.06.19 at 10:17 pm

“Do CPI calculations take this type of manipulation into consideration?”

Yes.

#79 Ted Clowy on 03.06.19 at 10:22 pm

Hey Flop, Pink Snow, aka M44BC

Another reader of your posts here and your blog. I also requested access to your private blog – no answer. Hope to see you back doing good work.

Thanks, Garth, for providing this form. Enjoy your thoughts every day.

Ted

#80 Shawn Allen on 03.06.19 at 10:29 pm

CPI and package size decreases

Do CPI calculations take this type of manipulation into consideration?

*************************
Yes, they do.

#81 Russ on 03.06.19 at 10:35 pm

Robert Ash on 03.06.19 at 9:07 pm

I found this Ted discussion, by Micheal Shellenberger, quite an interesting commentary on the problems, with renewable energy sources…if you have 17 minutes… it is worth a review. I have been Gobsmacked by the Foolishness of our Leaders. I did spend a lot of my life in Process Engineering, so perhaps, I have a bias… Ok I do… but this presentation, is a very interesting commentary on why Non Science Politicians, should be discouraged from their involvement in Climate Change….
================================

Thanks for the link. Good info.

I think he should revisit the energy density chart at 12,, minutes. It is an energy transition representation,
not energy density comparison.

Coal has a bad rap eh. It is really just a mature tree, after all.

cheers, R

#82 Phylis on 03.06.19 at 10:38 pm

I saw some calculators earlier here today, my favorite, https://retirementplans.vanguard.com/VGApp/pe/pubeducation/calculators/RetirementNestEggCalc.jsf
…Because it tells be i can retire now, even though i dont need to. Enjoy.

#83 Canada on 03.06.19 at 10:55 pm

Home bias . Just as , id imagine , folks in France have 20% of their portfolio in French stocks

Canada makes up 4% of world GDP yet Canadians have 20% + savings socked away in this chronic underperformer. Mind boggling

If not for the tax adv in non – registered accounts I’d have zero exposure

#84 Out Of Work CEO, Will Travel on 03.06.19 at 10:57 pm

Venezuela deserves at minimum a nod of “believing that the wheels can come off the truck even when you are still in the driver’s seat”. I mean Venezuela does have great weather; good beaches; seriously excellent B-B-Q and more oil than the Saudis. Should we not at least see how fast the wheels come off the F-150?

#85 Nonplused on 03.06.19 at 11:17 pm

#77 Binder Dundat

A quick google search confirms your numbers. I should have done that before. But my point was more that Canada and Russia share a lot in common in that they are both relatively sparsely populated but very large land masses with a lot of exportable resources.

California, on the other hand, also has resources, but they also have a lot of industry. California is small compared to Canada, but has a larger population and GDP. It would be nice to think we could just replicate their success here, but I don’t think so. The US likes to suck up all the best minds and put them to work on their own soil, even if that means hiring Canadians.

Anyone that has read about the Avro Arrow knows we once had the capability to build fighter jets here, although like everyone else we were always over budget. Where did all those engineers go when that program was shut down? Well, quite a few went to the US. They then designed and built planes in the US that were in turn sold back to Canada. I’m not saying it could have worked any other way, Canada was and is a pretty small country to be designing it’s own fighter jets, but it’s how it worked.

#86 PeterfromCalgary on 03.06.19 at 11:39 pm

Butthead is lying out of his butt. Beavis ain’t going to be our Prime Minister after the next election.

#87 PastThePeak on 03.06.19 at 11:46 pm

Unlikely. Banks and energy dominate the index. A recession of average length and depth should not do much. – Garth
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

With the Canadian debt-to-disposable income at records (highly over leveraged), together with the headwinds facing many sectors of the economy, I can’t see how we have a recession of typical length and depth.

Global growth would have to accelerate, when right now it is slowing down. What is the catalyst on the horizon?

#88 Karma on 03.06.19 at 11:53 pm

#56 Nonplused on 03.06.19 at 8:41 pm
“A follow up comment,

Probably the closest comparable country to Canada in the world today is, yes, Russia. Large land mass (largest in the world). Relatively small population (California itself has near 1/2 the population).”

Wot?

Russia has 144.5 million people.
California has 39.5 million people.
Canada has 37 million people.

#89 Crazyfox on 03.06.19 at 11:57 pm

After reading Gerald Butts text here:

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/shuffling-jwr-unrelated-to-snc-lavalin-butts/ar-BBUqL9O?li=AAggNb9

Some things didn’t square with JWR’s testimony obviously. The first is, she didn’t mention that she refused to step down as AG on an offer to run Indigenous Affairs. How many ministers in the past refused to change ministerial roles? Its not hard to imagine that the answer is slim to none. Its hard to think in any other terms than, “she’s special”. Secondly, the reason she gave was that she didn’t want anything to do with the Indian Act:

Check out her answer to a question given at 1:53:15 mark of testimony a week ago. its telling because its over the top. She became offended at a question that wasn’t offensive, check it out:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fC4v2OLgYQo

JWR was offered a ministerial position at indigenous affairs, a position that would have put her in a position to really help indigenous communities and she turned it down. If she really wanted to help indigenous people specifically, why did she turn it down? I’m left with the impression after hearing Butts testimony that JWR turned it down before even hearing what her mandate would have been. When one looks at her bio, it doesn’t make any sense for her to turn down indigenous affairs without hearing the mandate at all to me:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jody_Wilson-Raybould

Thirdly, why was she still holding meetings with Lavalin after her decision was already made? Fourthly, why did she believe that a 3rd party consult wasn’t necessary with Lavalin? I mean, they only employ 9,000 Canadians and 50,000 world wide. Lavalin just happens to be Canada’s largest engineering firm in a nation with a stock exchange that premiers the largest group of mining corps in the world… did she seriously think she knew all of the economic and social ramifications a decision to exile Lavalin from doing business in Canada for 10 years would have on tax coffers, jobs, pensions and the future cost of engineering in Canada with Lavalin unable to bid on future contracts within Canada?

Some will argue Lavalin had it coming and the argument is not without merit:

https://globalnews.ca/news/4915064/former-snc-lavalin-ceo-pierre-duhaime-pleads-guilty-for-role-in-hospital-bribery/

But… part of justice is damage control and picking up the pieces corrupt people leave behind. I didn’t see much of that concerning Lavalin, instead I saw a disgruntled individual being asked to leave a “job she loved” for a “job she loathed” and willing to burn bridges in protest with Canada watching.

#90 Smoking Man on 03.06.19 at 11:58 pm

Surprise.

That’s the story of life. Something’s are somewhat predictable, others not so much. That’s where alien DNA kicks in.

The key to happiness is knowing that life can deliver a crushing blow or a fast track to prosperity in a split second.

Never talking your luck for granted or bust yourself too much when you land on your face.

It’s the story of life. Enjoy the ride, take in the view. Your all going to be worm food faster than you anticipate.

Enjoy the cigarette and the wisdom that can only be found where I found it tonight.

An eyeball stuck in an empty bottle top looking into the depths of truth, it’s all gone wishing there was more to share.

#91 Karma on 03.06.19 at 11:59 pm

#64 Linda M Youell on 03.06.19 at 9:08 pm

“But what the heck, I still bought and enjoyed the candy bar, and the smaller size was better for me. Weight loss through CPI.
Do CPI calculations take this type of manipulation into consideration?”

Yes, it does take into account size of units when conducting inflation changes.

#92 David Driven on 03.07.19 at 1:07 am

#66 Real Mark. Apples and Cigars. The US is the global reserve currency. Printing new debt to supply countries with foreign reserves is never at issue. No one , except Trump Delusionista care about US debt. Big Rookie Mistake to compare US and Canada on any level.

Canada’s debt is real debt, not replaceable with new issuance. Taxpayers see direct income tax increases because of it. Canada has to pay its interest , the US just creates more money. I stick to my forecast, Canada will receive notice within six months from the IMF that debt to per capital is insolvent.

Trudeau stats locked into his election while thousands more are bankrupted by his policy. Canada can go bankrupt, the US can’t.

https://calgaryherald.com/business/local-business/a-highly-negative-situation-agriculture-sector-on-edge-over-china-canada-tensions

#93 not so liquid in calgary on 03.07.19 at 2:27 am

@ not 1st on 03.06.19 at 7:37 pm

=======================================

Please re-read the comment, and link, you referred to. Actually, Butts’ pin was a miners’ crossed pick and shovel (his father is a retired coal miner). Wernick’s pin was an eagle feather… best explained in the link you referenced…

did you even read the link??

#94 Tony on 03.07.19 at 2:55 am

Re: #57 k on 03.06.19 at 8:41 pm

Worse possible place you could ever put “your” money. Hope and pray you get a partial payout when most of the B.C. credit unions go under.

#95 Stan Brooks on 03.07.19 at 4:32 am

CPI is an absolutely bogus statistic, groceries and rents have increased by at least 30 % in the last 2 years while CPI is sub 2 %, calling CPI ‘inflation’ is wrong.

I guess eating and housing expenses are so small part of our ‘rich, wealthy’ lifestyle that its rise does not impact ‘inflation’ at all.

With the weak CAD, reduction in yield of government bonds shows the obvious: the expected (and ongoing) purchase of bonds by BoC.

It is not market driven, who would purchase such bonds ‘yielding’ 1.6 % (on 5 years maturity) with real inflation at 8 % + and ever weakening currency is beyond me.

#96 The Real Mark on 03.07.19 at 5:49 am

“Global growth would have to accelerate, when right now it is slowing down. What is the catalyst on the horizon?”

In the 1990s, post-RE bubble, it was a combination of the precious metals sector, as well as the tech sector that brought vibrance to an otherwise dead economy that saw its resource sector basically in depression.

This time around, the precious metals mining sector probably will have to do most of the heavy lifting. As Canada’s tech industry is a mere ghost of its former self in the 1990s.

Fortunately global macro events are lining up to actually make this a reasonably probable proposition. Unlike the situation in the 1996-1998 era which was largely characterized by a speculative bubble in Bre-X shares which ended in catastrophe for the sector.

Basically the precious metals miners are beneath 1977 levels on a nominal basis, and at near record lows in terms of their valuations relative to physical precious metals. The ratio of global assets to global precious metals assets is also at quite unusually low levels. So there’s a lot of room for the sector, disproportionately represented by Canadian firms, to run.

The implication of such is that a lot of wealth is going to be concentrated amongst relatively few Canadians who are actually participants. If the SJWs think they have it bad right now with how RE has distributed wealth on a relatively widespread basis amongst the 70% of Canadian homeowners, with dirt cheap rents in nearly every major Canadian city, they’re going to be horrified at the prospect of the creation of an uber-wealthy class of Canadians deriving from their participation in such a deeply out of favour sector.

I personally figure that at least $4T, even potentially $10T of market capitalization could be bestowed on Canadian precious metals mining companies. Simply if we assume that the sector will eventually be the recipient of the sort of enthusiasm that is currently heaped upon the contemporary tech sector.

#97 David Driven on 03.07.19 at 7:16 am

DELETED

#98 Steven Rowlandson on 03.07.19 at 7:28 am

Why wouldn’t the dollar flop and keep doing so?
After all it isn’t a unit of measure of gold or silver is it?
All it really is ,is a unit of measure of debt at a low interest rate and there is no real political will to pay down debt is there? Indeed there isn’t. No one wants to bite the bullet. So really the dollar is just a tradeable debt statistic presumed to be legal tender and nothing more.
Just financial fluff subject to the will of the wisp of public and currency traders opinions on a hourly or daily basis. Lovely isn’t it?

#99 AJ on 03.07.19 at 7:33 am

West Van house sold at 50% off its 2017 assessment

https://mobile.twitter.com/mortimer_1/status/1103136620515975169?s=20

#100 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.07.19 at 7:46 am

@#61 k
“combined with other savings put $1.5 mil into Vancity Credit Union….”

++++++

You put ALL your money into a savings account at a Credit Union????
For 2.5%, 2.75% and 4.05%
Wow!
I see Garth’s message about diversify, diversify, diversify went completely over your head.

#101 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.07.19 at 8:16 am

@#89 crazyfox

Well that was a long winded explanation of why SNC-Liberalin is “too big to fail”.

My turn?

Classic diversion of the core issue.
You “Shoot the Messenger” , pillory JWR and negate the fact that SNC has repeatedly , consistently, endlessly…. BRIBED govt officials in so of the most repulsive, murderous regimes all over the world to boost shareholder profits.
And you also fail to mention the fact that the Montreal Super hospital bid was flawed from the start.
How much did they shovel into Swiss Bank accounts for Quebec govt officials ? 10 million, 22.5 million? Only SNC knows for sure.
And these alleged bribes have all happened in the past 5, 10, 20 years.
Doesnt seem to me they have learned anything about honesty, integrity and the rule of Law.

No. They just donate millions to the political campaigns of Liberal and delay the Court proceedings until an election year……
Coincidence?
Riiiiiiiiiiight.

And if they get a “pass” because “jobs are at stake”…..what message does THAT send to the large companies operating in Canada?
Its a free for all?
The Law isnt really the Law?
What message does that send to the honest taxpayers, citizens of Canada?
There is one rule for you and another rule for rapacious , greedy, corrupting companies?

No.
If found guilty they should be BANNED from ALL Federal and Provincial contracts for 10 years.
If that doesnt burn that disgusting company’s finances to the ground….
I’m sure the impending class action Lawsuits from shareholders and various govts waiting in the wings for their pound of rotten flesh.

Time to rethink your Liberal “spin” and stop trying to whitewash the fact that …….senior Liberal govt officials repeatedly tried to influence the Attorney General of Canada on what will undoubtedly be the most important trial and political issue this year…..

The Liberals have squashed the skunk in the middle of the road and dont know what to do about the smell.
They can wear it.

#102 James on 03.07.19 at 8:16 am

Good morning Garth.

Apparently, it’s ‘National Apology Day’ in Canada.

Do you have anything to apologize for?

(Like putting up with all of us in steerage, lol!)

#103 MF on 03.07.19 at 8:21 am

99 Steven Rowlandson on 03.07.19 at 7:28 am

No, not really.

It’s also compared to other “debt notes” as you call them, and pretty much everyone else is in debt too.

It’s also a measure of stability. Stability of government, taxation, etc.

That’s why it falls and rises, but within a range. Everyone else is in debt and has other worse problems than we do.

Gold is useless. It’s only mentioned by people who want to pump it as an investment for their own gain, who don’t understand the modern financial system, or, who forget the previous gold based financial system was far from perfect.

MF

#104 NotLegalAdvice on 03.07.19 at 8:37 am

#59 Real estate investor on 03.06.19 at 8:49 pm
#2 NotLegalAdvice on 03.06.19 at 4:58 pm
Mattamy home has been selling like crazy. The line ups in the GTA have been unreal again.

60 pre-construction homes sold in 3 hours. What’s going on?

I called their sales office and was advised that they will be building another 200 shortly and to wait it out.

850K was the going rate on a 2800 sq ft home. HUGE price cut.

So I went to Great Gulf…looks like they having $50k off and even $80k off certain properties in the $1.2mill range.

That’s someone’s down payment…. gone! Wiped out if they bought in the previous phase.

There will always be a greater fool…
—————————

So if the lineups are crazy again how long do you think it will take for prices to start rising again?

Exactly

_________________________________________

Real Estate Investor or Real Estate Agent?

You realize the line ups were happening because of a huge price reduction, right?

The sad part is, in the next phase, the prices may just be lower and there goes someone else’s down payment.

The same mistake will be made over and over until the prices bottom out, but that will not be any time soon.

If you are really an “investor”, remember to not invest in a single asset.

#105 ole Doberman on 03.07.19 at 9:14 am

Gartho Armstrong is predicting a rising back up in Van City RE. He did get the top right in 2017 and decline into 2019, but then look:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/understanding-cycles/socrates-forecasts-are-already-identifying-the-approach-of-a-new-business-cycle/

I hope that’s not in all of Canada

#106 Tater on 03.07.19 at 9:22 am

#95 Stan Brooks on 03.07.19 at 4:32 am
CPI is an absolutely bogus statistic, groceries and rents have increased by at least 30 % in the last 2 years while CPI is sub 2 %, calling CPI ‘inflation’ is wrong.

I guess eating and housing expenses are so small part of our ‘rich, wealthy’ lifestyle that its rise does not impact ‘inflation’ at all.

With the weak CAD, reduction in yield of government bonds shows the obvious: the expected (and ongoing) purchase of bonds by BoC.

It is not market driven, who would purchase such bonds ‘yielding’ 1.6 % (on 5 years maturity) with real inflation at 8 % + and ever weakening currency is beyond me.
—————————————————————
Well, 87% of the current 10y bond isn’t owned by the BOC. But don’t let facts get in the way of your nonsense.

#107 James on 03.07.19 at 9:39 am

Had an interesting discussion the other day with a counterpart in Los Angeles whom we are in regular discussions with. He runs a large corporation with about 1800 employees. Some of his employees at ground level have run into a little bit of trouble by overspending. The tax rebate or cut is done and they all went on spending sprees. Quite a number of them went out and bought shine new wheels. My counterpart said he believes that the one-time tax cut has provided false hopes to his workers that the cuts will continue. They belive that the American public can bank on it continuing. He told me that the minimum wage is now mandated to increase in California this year and that will affect the bottom line in a lot of companies. His feeling is that layoffs could be soon coming. Americans on average are more than 60 days behind on their car loans according to experts. Some running as long as 90 days. These lessee’s and purchasers on average are falling behind two months in making payments on their auto loans. So what is up with the economy? It appears that the average American took advantage of cheap money when they had purchased and that is troubling as cheap money is no more? Lessee’s and car purchasers could run into distress if the economy takes a turn for the worse and their income is reduced. Rates have since increased even more. This is especially troubling because they’re locking themselves into long-term loans. Your weight watchers contact can be can be canceled. Your car payments cannot! That is unless you surrender the vehicle back to the leasing company or sell the car and pay back pennies on the dollar to the bank for the loan. Interesting fact that 83.7 percent of Americans count on their own vehicle or another person’s to get to work every day according to a Gallup poll done in 2018. The trigger number for repossession is 90 days and that is when the lenders say enough is enough. So the economy is rolling along until it doesn’t.

#108 Yuus bin Haad on 03.07.19 at 9:44 am

Stephen stopped me in the hall, grabbed my arm and blurted, “Remember ‘Just Not Ready’? Well, our new catchphrase is ‘SEE!'” (I did detect a hint of “told you so”)

#109 Another Deckchair on 03.07.19 at 9:51 am

Jobs at stake. Our PM’s “sorry” view.

Tell that to all the Nortel people, or other high-tech companies that have closed, even without the bribing-fanfare of SNC-Lavalin.

Tell that to the Oil-sands people. Or, those in Vancouver with their mortgages underwater. Or, to the Canola farmers, now that China is pushing back.

Or, those #metoo’ers – sorry you got pushed into something you didn’t want to do. So sorry. Sorry. Here’s a hug. Feel better?

Sorry, but no money for anyone else but SNC and the voters in Quebec.

Sigh.

#110 baloney Sandwitch on 03.07.19 at 10:12 am

If you add inflation we are already at negative interest rates. This should put a bit of a floor under “houses.” The favourite topic on this blog.

#111 Linda M Youell on 03.07.19 at 10:15 am

Thank you, #78 The Real Mark, and #91 Karma, for answering my question about CPI calculations.
I’m always learning.

#112 Real estate investor on 03.07.19 at 10:19 am

#105 not legal advice

I count four assumptions made on your part.

You know what they say about assumptions and the people who make them . Right.

In the meantime , equity outflows continue from global stock markets in spite of recent rally .

I would challenge Garth or anyone else here to help a new and novice financial asset investor like me why I would continue to invest in financial assets which such an obvious headwind.

#113 RealisticIdealist on 03.07.19 at 10:32 am

#39 DQ on 03.06.19 at 6:54 pm

I second your motion. Pink Snow aka M44BC provides a great service!

#114 waiting on the westcoast on 03.07.19 at 10:36 am

Garth… Great site for you and Bandit. And pictures of dogs on Urals among other bikes.

https://wp.bikebandit.com/blog/riding-your-motorcycle-with-your-dog

#115 dharma bum on 03.07.19 at 10:58 am

Ignore the news (noise).
Keep saving.
Stay invested.
Rebalance every 6 months as necessary.
Carry on.
You’ll be fine.

#116 n1tro on 03.07.19 at 11:12 am

Liberal’s paid for op-ed to trash JWR starting?

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/politics/bob-hepburn-why-jody-wilson-raybould-is-no-hero/ar-BBUsKok?li=AAggNb9

Hepburn uses passive aggressive arguments that questions JWR’s integrity. A summary is below:

1. Asks the question if JWR leaked the original story of the “pressure” herself and if so, she has no integrity.

2. Dismisses the actual pressure and diminishing it by putting it in quotes “pressure” and says that 10 meetings and 11 phone calls over 4 months is just a nothing burger. Says she still had the decision at the end of the day so what’s the big deal?

3. Blames JWR of being all about herself and not giving a shit about her fellow liberal MPs by throwing them under the bus saying they would lose their jobs because of the damning testimony agaisnt Trudeau.

4. Says the 4 months between when the pressure started to her demotion, why JWR moved so “slowly” as to say something.

5. Questions why JWR’s is still in the Liberal party if she was unhappy. Also adds that lots of backbenchers would have loved to get the awesome posts/opportunities she got.

6. Questions JWR’s legal call on the SNC matter and not caring about the 9000 jobs that may be affected.

7. Blames JWR that if Liberals lose in October that the Conservatives would undo all the awesome things that the liberals did for First Nations.

Concludes by questioning JWR’s integrity again for her planning to run for re-election as a liberal.
——————————–
Unbelievable that such slated garbage can be given print space. But given the state of journalism, I’m not exactly surprised.

Hopefully when others read this, they can see that the op-ed is mostly spreading FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt) with speculation and flawed arguments.

#117 JonBoy on 03.07.19 at 11:15 am

RE: #13 – The Real Mark

CPI (inflation) has averaged 1.5%/annum for the past decade, which is probably the lowest its been over the lifetimes of anyone participating in this blog.

Just how is that ‘high inflation”?

————————–

Cost of living increase in BC (where I live), was 3.0% from Dec 2017 to Dec 2018. That’s what our COL increase was at my employer, on all salaries.

This is according to Stats Canada.

That’s double the 1.5% you quoted. The last ten years are not going to give you a clue as to what’s going to happen this year. The recent trends are what we watch to see the health of the economy. In that light, recent trends are high inflation, flat wages and low retail sales. BIG PROBLEM!

#118 Penny Henny on 03.07.19 at 11:21 am

#82 Phylis on 03.06.19 at 10:38 pm
I saw some calculators earlier here today, my favorite, https://retirementplans.vanguard.com/VGApp/pe/pubeducation/calculators/RetirementNestEggCalc.jsf
…Because it tells be i can retire now, even though i dont need to. Enjoy.
///////////////

Thanks. Fun and easy but doesn’t account for CPP and OAS

#119 Ubul on 03.07.19 at 11:28 am

Major Canadian bank:
Your account information may be unavailable due to a temporary system outage. Please try again later.

#120 Cto on 03.07.19 at 11:43 am

The government and central bank will surely buckle and feed the debt junkies!

#121 Lee on 03.07.19 at 11:56 am

Given how the Liberals have handled the SNC mess, it is surprising that this country is not in total chaos after five years of their rule.

#122 Alistair McLaughlin on 03.07.19 at 12:16 pm

@ #117 Nitro, Andrew Cohen wrote almost the exact same article in the Ottawa Citizen.

https://ottawacitizen.com/opinion/columnists/cohen-philpott-and-wilson-raybould-have-put-the-achievements-of-trudeau-government-at-real-risk

He too stressed that Trudeau was the most progressive government ever, and that the Cabinet defections were self-serving and put all that progressive goodness at risk.

Barbara Yaffe felt motivated enough to come out of retirement to express similar sentiments in the G&M:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-look-away-theres-no-scandal-here/

It’s galling that this line of reasoning comes from the same people who just 3 years ago were prattling incessantly about “evidence-based policy-making” (that includes Cohen, Hepburn, and their hero Trudeau). Now that they have their preferred party in power, assigning the adjective “progressive” to its actions is all the evidence we need.

Political interference in the justice system is also OK, so long as that interference is carried out by progressive people with progressive aims.

#123 Alistair McLaughlin on 03.07.19 at 12:18 pm

Further to my last comment, one wonders if Yaffe isn’t one of the op-ed writers Katy T has in her Rolodex.

#124 Graeme on 03.07.19 at 12:19 pm

Yeah.. as much as I value your opinions I didn’t ever think rate hikes would come. That was a bluff. Too much debt and everything else is just noise. I went variable last year and I’ve been laughing ever since.

#125 Shawn Allen on 03.07.19 at 12:33 pm

A Bank is a Computer system

#120 Ubul on 03.07.19 at 11:28 am

Major Canadian bank:
Your account information may be unavailable due to a temporary system outage. Please try again later.

******************************
Banking, since its inception, has always been about record keeping and trust.

The banker records amounts going into and out of your account. You can only bank where you trust the banker. But regulations today pretty well insure trust is not an issue. Basically everyone trusts the large banks.

Today, basically 100% of the records are electronic. A Bank could largely keep functioning if all the branches closed for a month. Most banking has to stop immediately if their computer systems go down. All debit card transactions would stop. Probably all credit card transactions with that bank stop. All on-line bill payments stop. Your pay cannot be transferred in from your employer. If you walked into a branch they might not give you cash from your account since how would they record it? They might give you cash if you left a cheque for them to deposit later. Also the branch would run out of cash extremely quickly.

For that reason banks have redundancies and all kinds of procedures and contingencies in place to keep those systems running.

But it is a fact that if somehow those systems go down for more than a couple of hours there will be a major problem.

Keeping some good old paper cash on hand might not be a bad idea at all. More cautious people will keep a whole survival kit on hand.

#126 James on 03.07.19 at 12:41 pm

Here we go as reported.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says he should have been aware trust had broken down between his office and former justice minister Jody Wilson-Raybould over the SNC-Lavalin controversy, but stopped short of apologizing to her.

“Over the past months, there was an erosion of trust between my office and specifically my former principal secretary and the former minister of justice and attorney general,” Trudeau said during a morning news conference in Ottawa on Thursday.

“I was not aware of that erosion of trust. As prime minister and leader of the federal ministry, I should have been.”

Trudeau said the only apology he is offering today is to the Inuit later on a trip to Iqaluit for mistreatment during tuberculosis epidemics in the 1940s, 50s and 60s.

He said he continues to believe there was “no inappropriate pressure” put on Wilson-Raybould to relent and offer SNC-Lavalin a remediation agreement rather than proceeding to a criminal trial for bribery and fraud.

“I’m obviously reflecting on lessons learned through this,” Trudeau said.

“I think Canadians expect that of us that in any time we go through periods of internal disagreement and indeed challenges to internal trust as we have, there are things we have to reflect on and understand and do better next time.”
__________________________________________
In other words what it really says “You caught me red handed. Im guilty of misleading you and pressuring JWR.”

However here is how Trudeau spins it to John Q Public cause he know we are all just subservient idiots.
“I’m sorry sniff, sniff, tear, tear, I should have known about what others were doing around me and taken action. It will be all right though as I have learned a big lesson and lets move on now. I’m your leader follow me and we will all hug and kiss and make it all better.”

VOTE PEOPLE! For gods sake in the next election and move this bumbling, preppy, self centred, narcissistic ass out of Ottawa.

#127 AGuyInVancouver on 03.07.19 at 1:10 pm

#118 JonBoy on 03.07.19 at 11:15 am
RE: #13 – The Real Mark

CPI (inflation) has averaged 1.5%/annum for the past decade, which is probably the lowest its been over the lifetimes of anyone participating in this blog.

Just how is that ‘high inflation”?

————————–

Cost of living increase in BC (where I live), was 3.0% from Dec 2017 to Dec 2018. That’s what our COL increase was at my employer, on all salaries.

This is according to Stats Canada.

That’s double the 1.5% you quoted. The last ten years are not going to give you a clue as to what’s going to happen this year. The recent trends are what we watch to see the health of the economy. In that light, recent trends are high inflation, flat wages and low retail sales. BIG PROBLEM!
_ _ _
Yeah, I really question whether Canada is too big to be one workable country. BC has been buffeted by interest rate policies tailored to Alberta recently, and before that Ontario. As you point out the situation in BC is quite different. The talk in my office this year isn’t “who is getting a raise” it is “how much of a raise is everyone getting?”

#128 BETTER THAN YOU on 03.07.19 at 1:27 pm

@#72 Diversified in Oakville on 03.06.19 at 9:59 pm
#8 What’s Your Number

Mine is 2M net worth, with 1.4M in liquid investments to draw from.
Almost there……………………
__________________________________

currently 8M. only 3M liquid though.

#129 jess on 03.07.19 at 1:56 pm

Alessio on 03.06.19 at 5:49 pm

could it be :

short termism:
SEC commissioner :CEOs don’t sell valuable things cheaply,” he quipped. “Executives are using buybacks as a way to cash out.”
He said it doesn’t make sense to see companies buy back stock at high prices at the same time that insiders are selling the stock.

#130 Mattl on 03.07.19 at 2:08 pm

#53 Angela Merkel on 03.06.19 at 8:25 pm
KTownGuido: Kelowna prices are down 14% (114K) on detached homes in 7 months since housing bubble #2 in Kelowna popped.

Inventory is above 6 months – buyers market.

Two dates that real estate insiders in Kelowna are well aware of:

April 30, 2008

July 31, 2018

Not hard to pick off cycles if you have the right data to look at. The latter date will become more clear to the Okanagan public in the years to come.

This stuff works like clockwork.

—————————————————————

Not hard to pick off cycles? You missed the biggest one, seasonality. Kelowna swings 10% plus summer to winter, every single year. Up markets or down markets, homes sell for more in warm weather then they do in the cold.

YOY is the only way to follow a market like this and prices are down 2%. If you don’t understand how dramatic seasonality is in Kelowna – and really most markets – you have no right to comment on RE.

Speaking of Feb numbers I was actually surprised at how good the Kelowna numbers were for Feb but spring / summer YOY will tell the true story. I expect we will be down but if you saw Feb numbers and saw doom – in relation to what we are seeing in YVR and GTA – you do not understand the numbers.

#131 jess on 03.07.19 at 3:52 pm

. Reporters flocked to the town to watch construction crews erect a white-topped tent that was lined with a tapestry of camels and palm trees and outfitted with leather couches and coffee tables.
=====================
AP: Trump: I made money on Gadhafi Bedford deal
JILL COLVIN, The Associated Press Published 10:42 a.m. ET June 6, 2016 | Updated 8:07 a.m. ET June 7, 2016

..”Trump distanced himself from the matter, hinting that he’d been tricked into renting his land.

“I dealt with Gadhafi. Excuse me. I rented him a piece of land. He paid me more for one night than the land was worth for the whole year or for two years. And then I didn’t let him use the land. That’s what we should be doing,” Trump said in a 2011 interview with Fox News.

He reiterated the claim on CNN that same year. Trump said he had leased Gaddafi “a piece of land for his tent. He paid me more than I get in a whole year. And then, eh, he wasn’t able to use the piece of land. … So I got in one night more money than I would have gotten all year for this piece of land up in Westchester. And then didn’t let him use it? That’s called being intelligent,” Trump said.

#132 DQ on 03.07.19 at 3:59 pm

#45 TurnerNation

The Pint pubs are based out of Edmonton. The Vancouver location was something like their 5th location that was opened after several already existed in Alberta.

#133 Crazyfox on 03.07.19 at 6:21 pm

#102 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.07.19 at 8:16 am

You “Shoot the Messenger” , pillory JWR and negate the fact that SNC has repeatedly , consistently, endlessly…. BRIBED govt officials in so of the most repulsive, murderous regimes all over the world to boost shareholder profits.
And you also fail to mention the fact that the Montreal Super hospital bid was flawed from the start. – crowdelevatorfartz

I answered it in my post as well as a past comment a few days ago on just corrupt Lavalin’s history is. They have done work for dictators, despots, monarchs and bribe for access but think. Is it possible to get work in nations like the Congo or Libya any other way? Is it the cost of doing business in these nations? Often it is. A Canadian mining corp hires Lavalin to engineer a mine for example and Lavalin has to pay corrupt governments for permitting and whatever else, its the cost of doing business.

Lavalin has been flagged in some 20 nations or more in the last 30 years but from Mulroney to Harper, no one cared. It wasn’t until they got caught bribing Canadian public servants that Lavalin was put on the radar of bribery and corruption and for what its worth, this is what i said in my comment with a link. What more do you need?:

“Some will argue Lavalin had it coming and the argument is not without merit”:

https://globalnews.ca/news/4915064/former-snc-lavalin-ceo-pierre-duhaime-pleads-guilty-for-role-in-hospital-bribery/

If you read the link, you will see that this corruption case happened 7 years ago with sentencing of executives happening just this year. The CEO in charge of Lavalin at the time fled Canada in 2012 to avoid jail and died overseas in 2015 leaving a mess in the courts and scandal that Lavalin has already had to deal with for going on 8 years.

“No. They just donate millions to the political campaigns of Liberal and delay the Court proceedings until an election year……
Coincidence?
Riiiiiiiiiiight.”

You might wish it was so because you are obviously awash in partisan hype, but its not legal to donate “millions by any Canadian corp, there are limits to political donations.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_political_financing_in_Canada

If you care to actually read links, you will see that Conservatives in recent history have been the ones who look for raised large “private” donations.

#134 David Driven on 03.08.19 at 3:32 am

Real Mark, you asked where I get this stuff before it’s reported publicly? Here’s another example.

Several days ago I reported that Canada was in trouble with global finance governors.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/economics/video/canada-fast-becoming-the-problem-child-of-the-g10-currency-strategist~1630479

Sorry to once again be ahead of things. I forecast, it’s what I do. I get paid to strategize, it’s not magic.

In the same breath, in a follow up post I mentioned that it’s come to my attention that ex PM hopeful Liberal insider Micheal Ignatieff works directly under George Soros in Soros campaign to undermine the legal governments in Poland and Hungary. That was deleted along with my forecast addendum. Pardon me if the truth hurts. But we often see Canadians wondering aloud if theres a Soros Liberal connection. I can prove there is, its public information. With all the lies off Trudeaus Liberals being exposed they should also know that Trudeau is not his own man and much of his problems come from that fact. Privy Councilor Wernick worried aloud that Trudeau being exposed as a traitor might get him shot (his words not mine), and if there is an element of crime fraud and treason, shouldn’t Canadians know? Was Wernick public vomiting akin to a Freudian Slip? It will eventually come out…with people like myself having known in advance if the news.