Patience

This blog took a lot of heat two years ago for suggesting peak house was upon us, and only fools were making offers. Surely you recall it. FOMO stalked the land. Rockstar realtors orchestrated blind auctions. Bidders squirmed and stressed. Greedy vendors rode the wave to windfall gains. Household debt passed $2 trillion for the first time – most of it mortgages – as families stretched as never before to buy real estate at altitude. The media had a cow.

Now we know. It was a trap.

The latest stats from the GTA are telling. The average detached home, as in Vancouver, is in bear territory after shedding 20% from its peak. Year/year in February Toronto real estate gains were less than inflation, while both sales and listings fell. The month saw the biggest drop in transactions in a year, prompting the local cartel to beg Ottawa to review/gut the stress test and bring back 30-year mortgages. Yes, so people can borrow more money and afford houses which they can’t actually afford. But that’s how realtors think. I guess we all would, if we lived on commish.

Of course the danger – now that Ottawa’s in crisis mode and Mr. Socks is worried about October 21st (and why women don’t like him) – is that the March 19th budget will deliver what the industry’s begging for. Finance guy Bill Morneau has already revealed there will be a Moister Strategy on that day, widely expected to contain (at least) a 30-year loan extension plus a new tax credit to help pay closing costs. As argued here before, this could affect a natural market correction. Or, maybe not.

Meanwhile last week’s awful economic numbers, combined with an earnings miss at two banks, have raised the spectre of a made-in-maple recession. If that were to occur, plus the Lavalin/Jody/Jane/Gerry crisis in the PMO, we might well have a change in government – something that looked like a kinky neocon fantasy three weeks ago. This also is not lost on the Bank of Canada, which until recently was penciling in two rate hikes for 2019. That’s now down to one. And no time soon.

The good news about recessions is the cost of money often goes down, assets like houses get cheaper and inflation fizzles. The bad news is you might lose your job. Plus real estate becomes illiquid, so people who must sell have to wait or relist lower.

By the way, the definition of a recession is not when your MIL says you’re a complete loser. That’s called ‘Sunday.’ Rather it’s two consecutive quarters of negative growth – in other words, an economic contraction lasting at least six months. Such events are routine since things don’t go up forever. But recessions tend to be far shorter than periods of expansion, so investors with balanced and diversified portfolios can basically ignore them. (For example, between 1945 and 2001 recessions averaged 10 months compared to 57 months for expansions.)

So here we are. Real estate is giving up momentum and people no longer talk about it during sex. This is good. But economic growth has stalled, the federal government is distracted, China’s fed up with us, corporate profits have moderated and the central bank is cautious. In other words, don’t quit your job in the next few months. Or pickle yourself in debt – no matter how enticing things look.

And that includes Rutting Season Rates.

The spring borrowing market just kicked off with HSBC, which has been trying hard to become a predatory lender in recent years. The bank is after headlines and applicants with a 2.99% five-year fixed-rate mortgage (about half a point less than the other guys). The lender is taking advantage of exactly what I’ve just described – an abrupt stall in central bank rates, crappy economic numbers and reticent buyers. Given the serious wobble in major real estate markets, new mortgage originations have been plunging, so HSBC has become overly aggressive in courting first-timers. (By the way, the bank’s also cratered its HELOC rate.)

Expect more of this. Home loan rate cuts will be everywhere in a few weeks as the big banks compete for their share of a dwindling pie (or avocado toast, in this case). Listings will also swell. If Morneau/Trudeau decide to distract young voters with a tasty homebuying strategy in the budget this month, house lust could be back.

Does it make sense to buy?

Well, it makes better sense now than it did two years and 20% ago, if you’re after a detached. But there’s obviously more to come. Patience.

About the picture...

That’s Sugar, and her dad’s a cop. With a message for me. “I’ve been a police officer for 23 years. I used to read comments on police related reporting and started to feel the world was against me. Quite seriously. I know it wasn’t though. It was that fringe group of folks who are so disconnected and permanently pissed off that by taking the time to spread their venom they seems to think it will change things. It won’t. I’d suggest you just shut down the comments for a month or two and perhaps even permanently. When YOU comment about their comments – you make them relevant. They aren’t.”

155 comments ↓

#1 Jimmy on 03.05.19 at 4:53 pm

Whew! Worried it was all over.

#2 The Real Mark on 03.05.19 at 4:55 pm

All that actual and probable future deflation. Especially in consumer consumption. Just looking at airfares to Singapore the other day, they’ve basically fallen off a cliff. The Bank of Canada’s hands will be increasingly tied, and if Poloz doesn’t cut tomorrow, he’ll have to say at least something to keep the crisis in Canada from deepening and turning systemic. The Bank of Canada can only play its ‘confidence’ game so long until the real fundamentals exert themselves.

Quite a few people online are noting that Liberal polling numbers are falling, and blaming such on l’Affair SNC-Lavalin. However, I do wonder if overall grumpiness relating to housing, the weak stock market, the weak CAD$, and the chronically weak employment market (bum wipers, waitresses, and dishwashers notwithstanding) is actually more prominent in the decision making and voting calculus of Canadians. Over the past 2 decades of CMHC-driven communism, the Canadian economy has morphed from being vibrant into basically being something that is more reminiscent of Russia in the Soviet Union where officially unemployment was low, but most people were not productively deployed.

In terms of possible stimulus measures that the GoC could dish out in a budget, Ross Kay, in yesterdays interview, argued that it is “mathematically” impossible to re-stimulate a sector of the economy that is now in severe physical over-supply and over-capacity. I tend to agree. Extending permitted amortizations to 30 years might give some of the existing borrowers extra ‘rope’ to deal with falling prices and decreased income — but it won’t deal with the fundamental problems of supply and demand that are causing Canadian house prices to fall significantly from their 2013 peak/plateau.

#3 Parksville Prankster on 03.05.19 at 5:01 pm

T2 and Sunny Ways will turn this ship around….it ain’t over ’till the Fat Lady sings… wait, what’s that sound? Is that someone humming and warming up on stage left?

#4 Damifino on 03.05.19 at 5:05 pm

Love the dog. The cats are cool too. Is it okay to be fond of both dogs and cats, or does that go against the natural order of things?

#5 Freedom of speech on 03.05.19 at 5:10 pm

No freedom of speech on this blog? Garth you must be in North Korea or Russia land! Go retire and fly off into the sunset!

#6 TS on 03.05.19 at 5:14 pm

“Ross Kay, in yesterdays interview, argued that it is “mathematically” impossible to re-stimulate a sector of the economy that is now in severe physical over-supply and over-capacity.”

——————————————

Something doesn’t line up when one side says that there is massive oversupply and the other side is crying because they are afraid of being locked out of the housing market and being left as road kill life long renters. One of the two is very wrong.

#7 crdt on 03.05.19 at 5:15 pm

I sometimes go right to the comments, that is where I get local impressions. I would definitely engage less with this blog without comments… oh well. The comments are like a second helping of goodness…

#8 Dolce Vita on 03.05.19 at 5:28 pm

The Police Officers’ words read angry, frustrated – heavy handed.

An unnecessary and “it does not follow” parallel to the Comments section of an innocuous Blog about…well read the Masthead.

An order of magnitude less serious than what the Officer has to contend with on a daily basis: the dregs, misfits, tragedy and pathos of Society.

#9 The Real Mark on 03.05.19 at 5:31 pm

“Something doesn’t line up when one side says that there is massive oversupply and the other side is crying because they are afraid of being locked out of the housing market and being left as road kill life long renters.”

There will always be people with unrealistic expectations. For example, if you are in the lower quartile of income, living in a SFH has never been a reasonable proposition in a major Canadian city. But Canada’s major cities have plenty of property available for rent at reasonable price points for people who are working across the whole spectrum of positions.

The chief complaint is that the purchase price to rent multiple is so unusually large. Which is certainly a valid complaint, but is a reflection of the financial speculative bubble, not a physical shortage, that exists in RE. Given the extremities to which financial ratios are stretched on Canadian housing, a collapse of such is inevitable. Patience will be heavily rewarded in the months and years to come. Greed and speculation in the sector highly punished.

Anecdotally, a lot of housing appears to be hoarded. Either explicitly, ie: an investor holding an empty condo unit. Or implicitly, ie: an elderly widow living in a million dollar house with little income other than CPP. Falling prices will drive a lot of that supply to market as “appreciation” (whether real, or fake post-2013 ‘appreciation’) can no longer cover up the expenses associated with such.

#10 Over and Over Again on 03.05.19 at 5:32 pm

Unequivacol waffling taken to a new level.

Things might continue their downward trend, or the trend might reverse itself with new federal stimulative measures. Patience of at least another 1 year to 18 months is required to see the results.

Of course prices are going back up, and this short term blip will be eclipsed by a return to the upwards trajectory.

Name a time when the feds or the provinces introduced a stimulative measure that did not result in higher prices? Its only when they introduce measures to curb the market – like increased down payments or equity loan ratio changes – that they fail miserably as prices continued to go up.

Lets see – 40 year mortgages? Yup, they started the price ascension. CMHC insurance caps getting increasingly bigger? Yup, prices moved up.

Anyone that has followed this blog for years knows this classic pattern. New stimulative measure – prices go up. New demand management measure – prices go up.

In six months, bears will be lamenting that they ‘missed out’ again when it was clear as daylight that prices would go back up.

The average buyer will gleefully glob on to more debt with longer amortization rates, which will conservatively goose the market 10% as per basic math. No one looks at fundamentals, market trends, valuations – its all ‘how much a month’ thinking and they now can spend 10% more.

The average buyer, especially the young ones that saw prices rise for a decade and a half, and were schooled by their parents on the infallibility of RE as an asset class, will march like lemmings over the debt cliff and cheer the new measures.

How utterly predictable.

#11 TRUDEAU THE CHEATER on 03.05.19 at 5:37 pm

DELETED

#12 Stephens on 03.05.19 at 5:38 pm

Time to change parties but Canadians won’t see a difference. What will Scheer do with pipeline? With meng wen Zhou incident? Middle class?

#13 aerozone on 03.05.19 at 5:38 pm

Jimmy!
You didn’t say first!

#14 Beverly Romas on 03.05.19 at 5:42 pm

Garth, I am one of many who look forward to your daily message. You are an amazing writer and often have me in stitches at your witty comments. I’ve learned so much financially which has given me confidence to direct invest. I love your take on the political scene too. I also enjoy the commenters. Some of them are quite hilarious.
Please do not ever give up the Ship!

#15 Kevin on 03.05.19 at 5:43 pm

“I’ve been a police officer for 23 years. I used to read comments on police related reporting and started to feel the world was against me. Quite seriously. I know it wasn’t though. It was that fringe group of folks who are so disconnected and permanently pissed off that by taking the time to spread their venom they seems to think it will change things. It won’t. I’d suggest you just shut down the comments for a month or two and perhaps even permanently. When YOU comment about their comments – you make them relevant. They aren’t.”

Agreed. Do this or have some moderators.

#16 mitzerboyakaQueencitykidd on 03.05.19 at 5:45 pm

people who come to this site come for a reason Garth

to hear whatcha gotta say…..
their comments are verbose

i say Dogs are great
Beer is good
people are crazy

#17 Dolce Vita on 03.05.19 at 5:48 pm

#5 Freedom of speech

You are confusing a Blog Comments section with nationhood and the constitution. There are no Greater Fool birth certificates, pledges of allegiance, passports, Secret Service (although at times I wonder), currency (other than wit and humor) and the trappings of a country.

It is his Blog and he can do as he pleases.

With the good comes the bad. It’s the way of things.

When the bad >>> good, still his call in the end.

#18 Jedidja Bourgeois on 03.05.19 at 5:51 pm

Not sure what happened in your comment section recently (I read your blog via RSS), but please keep posting. Always enjoy your commentary and helpful advice.

#19 Arctic Gringo: Qalunaaq on 03.05.19 at 5:52 pm

Small town rumor has it that that the PM is spending his March 5 in true frozen north – Iqaluit (aka. Frobisher Bay). Possibly avoiding Butts’ sitting. Who knows? Official PM itinerary states private meetings.

Go North – avoid some headaches. I’m not sure if Hunter Tootoo is allowed to greet him or not.

#20 Brian Ripley on 03.05.19 at 5:53 pm

My Toronto and Vancouver housing charts with FEB data are up now:
http://www.chpc.biz/

Toronto is still buying the dip.
Vancouver not so much.

#21 Blacksheep on 03.05.19 at 6:05 pm

“I’ve been a police officer for 23 years. I used to read comments on police related reporting and started to feel the world was against me. Quite seriously. I know it wasn’t though. It was that fringe group of folks who are so disconnected and permanently pissed off that by taking the time to spread their venom they seems to think it will change things. It won’t. I’d suggest you just shut down the comments for a month or two and perhaps even permanently. When YOU comment about their comments – you make them relevant. They aren’t.”
—————————————–
Not sure exactly what this police officer is referring to, beyond the criticisms some have made to those employed / paid, by the government / the crown in general.

The suggestion that your forum be shut down, “perhaps even permanently” because he / she is offended by public comments they don’t like, displays delusions of grandeur.

The theory that a Fireman or Police officer, deserves special treatment is ridiculous. Don’t get me wrong if my home is on fire or I’m being robbed, I defiantly need and appreciate their services, but that is why I pay taxes and why these parties are well compensated.

Just like I’m glad there are cardiovascular surgeons and air traffic controllers for similar, obvious reasons.

Like many fields, I understand there is risk, in performing their daily jobs, but there is more to the story. I Googled “most dangerous jobs Canada” and this list showed that a Policeman or Fireman, didn’t even make the top 10 in regards to risk of being harmed in doing there job.
—————————————
Quote from the link:

“It’s a tough job but someone’s got to do it” – that’s the kind of thing you’d expect a burly cop or firefighter to say”.

“But in terms of workplace hazards, firefighters and police officers are relative lightweights compared to workers at greatest risk for job-related accidents, and death.”

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/the-hot-button/and-the-top-10-most-dangerous-jobs-are/article16352517/

I’m not ragging on the police or fire dept, I’m just staunchly opposed to censorship, unless absolutely necessary and it simply does not seem to be the case here.

That and there is no candle light vigil held for the logger, crushed to death by a 5000 lb. pine tree. We all just go to work and do are jobs, with plans to go home to our families every night….

#22 Shawn Allen on 03.05.19 at 6:05 pm

Predatory lending – New Definition?

The spring borrowing market just kicked off with HSBC, which has been trying hard to become a predatory lender in recent years. The bank is after headlines and applicants with a 2.99% five-year fixed-rate mortgage (about half a point less than the other guys).

**************************
Well it used to be that places like payday lenders and pawn shops were predatory lenders with rates pushing the 50% or so usury laws. And store credit cards at 28%.

Now we are calling a 3% loan predatory? That’s 2.99% for an entire year! That seems like the opposite of predatory lending. And no one is being force-fed such mortgages. Rather, people face stress test hurdles.

When did we stop liking competition?

I’d be more concerned about what it says about deposit rates. What is HSBC paying on deposits if they can make good profits (even in risk free lending) lending out at 2.99%?

This looks like more evidence that the latest false start on a return to “normal” interest rates is once again fizzling out.

The five year Canada bond yield is down to 1.76%, a far cry from the nearly 2.5% of last Fall when the rates-will-rise-a-lot narrative still had legs. Dare I say it, Mark may have been right. (Well, I better throw in an insult lest his head get even bigger, stopped clock syndrome?)

#23 oakville stinks on 03.05.19 at 6:06 pm

Price decline in Oakville Ontario…. 0%!!!

#24 Reximus on 03.05.19 at 6:11 pm

#20 Toronto doesn’t have a government hellbent on crushing its real estate market

#25 Dog Photo on 03.05.19 at 6:16 pm

This caption has a deeper symbolic meaning that was rather well done.

#26 TRUMP 2020 on 03.05.19 at 6:16 pm

2 CANADIANS might never see freedom again or worse.

TRUDEAU NOW HAS BLOOD ON HIS HANDS.

HE can break the law and interfere with SNC matters but he cant get involved with Huawei matters.

#27 Bingo on 03.05.19 at 6:21 pm

@“I’ve been a police officer for 23 years. I used to read comments on police related reporting and started to feel the world was against me. Quite seriously. I know it wasn’t though. It was that fringe group of folks who are so disconnected and permanently pissed off that by taking the time to spread their venom they seems to think it will change things. It won’t. I’d suggest you just shut down the comments for a month or two and perhaps even permanently. When YOU comment about their comments – you make them relevant. They aren’t.”
____________________________

The fringe are highly entertaining in their misguidedness though.

#28 Smile on 03.05.19 at 6:24 pm

I will Fast Forward Canadian Economic News 6 months ahead of Schedule… Bill Morneau has aided the Big 5 Banks in covering up Money Laundering activity especially in BC. Cant say noone was warned…The Dude is beyond Bad News.

#29 Shawn Allen on 03.05.19 at 6:28 pm

Alberta Carbon Tax

Just got my gas bill for the month ending February 24. February was the coldest February in 40 years. In addition to the house I ran a gas fireplace in a sun room (think lots of heat loss). Total cost with tax $254. Thank you low gas prices (though it did rise the $3.12 for February.

Carbon tax $44 or 18% of the bill before GST. The carbon tax percent of the gas bill is higher than on Gasoline which I believe is less than 10% at the moment. A lot of the reason for that is natural gas does not face the high excise taxes on gasoline . The carbon tax percent on gasoline is lower because gasoline is relatively more expensive especially with all the taxes.

Anyhow, the way the carbon tax can be presented as a very high percentage of the (low) natural gas energy charge will give plenty of ammunition to the UCA and carbon tax haters in general.

My carbon tax was 52% of the actual (extremely low) energy charge of $84.50.

Meanwhile it is $44 bucks and I heated my house and sunroom for $254 all-in for the month. A record cold month. Try that with gas in Ontario or electricity in any province. And I compensated the world for my evil carbon use. I am good with it. Much of the carbon tax will go out in cheques to low income people. I’m okay with that. Some of the carbon tax will go to try to lower emissions in some way. That is as it should be.

#30 Dolce Vita on 03.05.19 at 6:30 pm

“Meanwhile last week’s awful economic numbers, combined with an earnings miss at two banks, have raised the spectre of a made-in-maple recession.”

If a recession, to the uninitiated:

Hold at least 6 months worth of expenses in savings, better 10 months.

Go here to view Canadian recessions since 1929 and peruse their duration:

https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/recession

The average recession duration since 1929, excluding the 1929-1933 Depression, is about 10 months.

That depression lasted 46 months. Incomprehensible even to Boomer me.

#31 Penny Henny on 03.05.19 at 6:32 pm

Meanwhile last week’s awful economic numbers, combined with an earnings miss at two banks, have raised the spectre of a made-in-maple recession.-GT

////////////

Question: if a recession is coming wouldn’t one want to reduce Maple exposure?

#32 Reximus on 03.05.19 at 6:35 pm

#26 how do you know they aren’t SPIES. they could be

#33 Penny Henny on 03.05.19 at 6:36 pm

So here we are. Real estate is giving up momentum and people no longer talk about it during sex-GT

///////

Say’s you.
uppa, Uppa, UPPA

#34 ronh on 03.05.19 at 6:37 pm

Follow the Money
Trudeau – SNC Lavalin

Trust Fund Baby

#35 Long-Time Lurker on 03.05.19 at 6:39 pm

Ha! Garth, you thought Smoking Man was a trouble maker!

#36 just a dude on 03.05.19 at 6:41 pm

Garth, wise words from the police officer regarding the comments. Life’s too short. I would venture to say that the majority of your readers greatly appreciate reading your words but wouldn’t miss the comments if you decided to can them altogether. That’s certainly how I feel anyway.

Thanks again for writing your daily posts. You are doing a great service, Sir. Thank you.

#37 the Jaguar on 03.05.19 at 6:42 pm

Sugar is sure a handsome dog. So are her two body guards. Both so serious and intent in their gaze trying to figure whether the person taking the photo will reward them for their stillness with a treat. Bless police officers everywhere for keeping me safe. Amen.

#38 Long-Time Lurker on 03.05.19 at 6:45 pm

59 Social Democracy on 03.04.19 at 7:16 pm
For all those here who think comparing Canada to Venezuela, Cuba or the Soviet Union is an intelligent argument, or get a kick out of calling John Horgan “comrade” or thinks that Justin Trudeau is a totalitarian leader (wow), or warns young people of the evils of socialism; I have a real factual definition of social democracy right here for you:

>That’s Wikipedia.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_democracy

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/socialism

socialism noun
so·​cial·​ism | ˈsō-shə-ˌli-zəm
Definition of socialism

1 : any of various economic and political theories advocating collective or governmental ownership and administration of the means of production and distribution of goods

2a : a system of society or group living in which there is no private property

b : a system or condition of society in which the means of production are owned and controlled by the state

3 : a stage of society in Marxist theory transitional between capitalism and communism and distinguished by unequal distribution of goods and pay according to work done

https://www.merriam- webster.com/dictionary/social%20democracy

social democracy noun
Definition of social democracy

1 : a political movement advocating a gradual and peaceful transition from capitalism to socialism by democratic means (LTL: See above.)

2 : a democratic welfare state that incorporates both capitalist and socialist practices. (LTL: See below.)

#39 Not 1st on 03.05.19 at 6:46 pm

A cop not liking to hear different viewpoints and saying the people’s views are not valid. What unbridled arrogance. We have a PMO trying the same thing.

Garths blog invites dissension whether intended or not. If it was purely a financial blog the discussion would be pretty binary. But a lot of politics and other policies are brought in here and that’s wher differing viewpoints are highlighted. If it’s any consolation go look at a twitter feed to see how hostile it can get. GF is actually pretty tame.

#40 Penny Henny on 03.05.19 at 6:46 pm

#9 The Real Mark on 03.05.19 at 5:31 pm
Falling prices will drive a lot of that supply to market as “appreciation” (whether real, or fake post-2013 ‘appreciation’)
////////////////////

Real or fake appreciation since 2013? From ‘Da Real Mark’
Are the drugs wearing off?

#41 Penny Henny on 03.05.19 at 6:49 pm

#13 aerozone on 03.05.19 at 5:38 pm
Jimmy!
You didn’t say first!
/////////////

It’s implied.

#42 Dolce Vita on 03.05.19 at 6:51 pm

1 more Comment than allowed:

Stay the course. Allow Comments. I take heart in the title of todays Blog.

I understand you are still smarting after having given timely and well thought out financial advice yet dissenters, naysayers abounded (and ingrates).

It’s the way things are nowadays. Still, your call as to extinguishing the Comments section.

Always appreciative and Buonanotte from Technical Recession Italia (the official call made today by Istat).

#43 TurnerNation on 03.05.19 at 6:54 pm

The most-dangerous man is one with a free thinking opinion.
Centuries are the Church would take you down.
Decades ago the commie government.
Today it’s your fellow man after you.

I’d say things are worse than ever. Pillars being pilloried.

#44 WUL on 03.05.19 at 6:55 pm

Garth,

If your supporters (I’m a big fan) cannot succeed in having you receive the Order of Canada, we’ll aim for the Stephen Leacock Memorial Medal for Humour. A cinch.

Your humour is terrific. Thank you.

WUL

#45 Every Price Drop Means More Money In the Next Owner's Pocket on 03.05.19 at 6:55 pm

Just stand back and wait.

This is how the rich get richer.

#46 Fish on 03.05.19 at 6:55 pm

I enjoy your blog Garth and very much look forward

to it Thankyou

https://www.greaterfool.ca/2013/12/31/rules-2/

#47 not 1st on 03.05.19 at 6:56 pm

What sparks furious debate and eventually disrespectful posts is hypocrisy and pushing false narratives that are easily rebutted.

Climate change is the worst. When somebody flys a delegation of 30 people to your home town to lecture you, then everyone returns to their chauffeured motorcade back to their mansions, anyone with a brain can see the blatant hypocrisy.

#48 not 1st on 03.05.19 at 6:59 pm

Or to hear the scaremongering out of the UN and we need to shut down all industry because the waters are going to be rising and swallowing the coast line. Wow scary stuff.

Then you see an article like this where the Netherlands continue to reclaim low lying sea level land to farm and put even solar and windmills on. Give me a break.

https://www.country-guide.ca/guide-business/land-at-75000-per-acre/?module=under-carousel&pgtype=homepage&i=

#49 Long-Time Lurker on 03.05.19 at 7:03 pm

#65 Roial1 on 03.04.19 at 7:26 pm

…Having been to Denmark and Sweden I can assure you that they are socialistic states. They are also capitalistic.

They have found a way to be both at the same time.

>I go by the dictionary’s definition of socialism. See above.

https://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/ny-oped-the-truth-about-sweden-20190304-story.html?outputType=amp

The truth about Sweden: It’s neither a Socialist paradise nor an Islamist horror movie

By JOHAN NORBERG
MAR 05, 2019 | 5:00 AM

Sweden is not a country, it is a Rorschach test for Americans. That is what I have learned over the last year as I made the documentary “Sweden: Lessons for America?” for U.S. public television. Most Americans I met and talked to about my home country before and during filming unintentionally used Sweden as a projection board for their own hopes and fears.

On the left, politicians like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez seem to think that Sweden is the country of government produced milk and honey, equally distributed, of course. Our governing philosophy, progressives appear to believe, is a gentle, democratic socialism that takes from the rich and gives to the poor, to produce a decent society for all…

…Kjell-Olof Feldt, the Social Democratic minister of finance from 1983 to 90, later admitted that some of the government’s program was “unsustainable,” some of the policies “absurd” and the tax system “perverse.” When it ended in a terrible financial crash after an inflation-fueled boom, both the left and the right agreed to dismantle the failed experiment.

Much faster than others, Sweden deregulated markets, cut spending and reduced taxes. Our retirement security system was changed from a system defined by benefits into one defined by contributions, and expanded with private accounts. We also introduced choice and competition in the public sector — for example, school vouchers. If the conservative Heritage Foundation’s 2018 ranking of economic freedom is to be believed, Sweden is actually more laissez-faire than the United States.

Overall, these policies made Sweden more competitive and restored growth. Before the reforms, real wages in Sweden were stagnant for 20 years. Since then, real wages have increased by 70%.

Sweden still has high taxes and public spending, but the tax structure gives the lie to the “soak the rich” paradigm. Sweden has lower corporate taxes than other OECD countries, and no taxes on property, wealth, gifts and inheritance, while at the same time taxing the incomes of the poor heavier and implementing a regressive 25% value added tax. The reason is simple: The rich are too important to the economy, whereas the poor are loyal taxpayers who don’t dodge or move to Monaco.

Unlike the American left, Swedish Social Democrats realized that you can have a big government or make the rich pay for it all. You can’t have both. This takes an adult conversation about costs and benefits, and not just slogans….

#50 joe on 03.05.19 at 7:06 pm

“The latest stats from the GTA are telling. The average detached home, as in Vancouver, is in bear territory after shedding 20% from its peak. Year/year in February Toronto real estate gains were less than inflation, while both sales and listings fell. The month saw the biggest drop in transactions in a year, prompting the local cartel to beg Ottawa to review/gut the stress test and bring back 30-year mortgages. Yes, so people can borrow more money and afford houses which they can’t actually afford.”

**********************

If a 7% drop in current prices is equal to a 30-year, then Mr Market is already helping first-timers. The govt doesn’t need to do anything.

#51 Mikeshouse on 03.05.19 at 7:20 pm

Jason Kenny…By The Numbers…Jody-Wilson-Raybould Style.
A Smart,Shrewd, aggressively Conservative Politician.
https://youtu.be/kDpZ9nTZuYk

#52 Shawn Allen on 03.05.19 at 7:26 pm

Question for a Former Minister of Revenue (and anyone else)

Do corporations in Canada that earn money in various provinces only pay income tax where they have head office?

Come to think of it in my own small business I only pay Federal and Alberta income tax.

What if a company has an actual physical presence in various provinces?

Are there battles between provinces as to where the profits were made and should be taxed?

Who sets the rules on this the provinces or the Feds?

Anyone know?

#53 Cici on 03.05.19 at 7:29 pm

I agree with the police officer, but secretely wish the relatively small percentage of A-hole grade nasty commentators would moderate themselves off the blog so the rest of us could appreciate some of the more valuable, insightful comments in the steerage section.

But, if they don’t end up ruling, the biggest idiots usually do end up dominating…

#54 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.05.19 at 7:34 pm

@#11 Trudeau the cheater

You dated Trudeau?
Ick.

#55 Shawn Allen on 03.05.19 at 7:47 pm

Can’t ANYONE be honest?

#51 Mikeshouse give a link to Jason Kenney who asks if Albertan’s are better off than four years ago.

Right so Kenney is dishonest enough to blame the crash in oil prices on the NDP.

#56 I got pulled over once ... on 03.05.19 at 7:47 pm

#37 the Jaguar on 03.05.19 at 6:42 pm
Bless police officers everywhere for keeping me safe. Amen.

in a roadblock while driving home from work late one night, and after [email protected] and I Had a few words to get acquainted, I said to her “thanks for just keeping us safe.” She honestly did not know what to say. Hope she is well.

#57 PastThePeak on 03.05.19 at 7:56 pm

The speculated gov’t measures should produce a nice dead cat bounce and set the final trap.

#58 Two-thirds on 03.05.19 at 8:03 pm

A real worry if a recession looms on the horizon, is that, to deal with it, annual deficits would almost certainly grow larger, increasing debt and hence guaranteeing higher taxes for Canadians in the future.

The present Liberal government’s reliance on deficit spending (during times of financial expansion!!) would more or less guarantee that fiscal stimulus measures to combat a recession would at best be limited, or at worst, lead to much more severe deficits than we currently have.

Even the 40% of non-tax-paying Canadian households would be affected, as their benefits will likely need to be curtailed, because a constantly rising share of taxes would end up going to debt repayment instead.

So new government or not in 2019, debt will haunt all Canadians, without regard for political affiliation or how rudely we behave online.

As this pathetic blog used to say: “this will not end well.”

Garth, is it too early to restart the squirrel recipe jokes?

#59 Boo Boo on 03.05.19 at 8:13 pm

If a 7% drop in current prices is equal to a 30-year, then Mr Market is already helping first-timers. The govt doesn’t need to do anything.

________________________________________

Exactly. Let the market work.

#60 retiredBoomerinVictoria on 03.05.19 at 8:16 pm

“Does it make sense to buy?

Well, it makes better sense now than it did two years and 20% ago, if you’re after a detached. But there’s obviously more to come. Patience.”
—————————————————————————–

If anyone is interested in this:

There’s a FormaFist channel on UTube. He’s a young, very bright guy, very good at explaining things on a whiteboard,

as to how Real Estate prices fall starting from the top-tier 1% mansions eventually down to the ones most of the masses can afford. (if they can afford R/E)

I don’t know why public schools (or colleges or universities, for that matter) don’t teach this R/E education, which is the biggest purchase for most people.

FormaFist (form-a-fist) has dozens of videos on his UTube Channel on R/E analysis. He’s also has a good sense of humour.

He’s from B.C., but his videos can apply to the GTA or anywhere in Canada. Here’s a link to one of his videos. Enjoy. You’re Welcome.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eJI-7ewn98k

#61 John Martin on 03.05.19 at 8:20 pm

Hey Garth: You`re a Gentleman, a Scholar & a Judge of Good Liquor !!

P.S. I appreciate the comments !

M82Mb.

#62 Oz on 03.05.19 at 8:23 pm

This real (or fake) estate market, is the calm before the storm.

This market will drop in the spring and drop again in the fall. Vintage 1989 all over again.

#63 Trumpocalypse2019 on 03.05.19 at 8:26 pm

10 DAYS TO THE IDES OF MARCH!

Horrors are just ahead.

PREPARE

#64 The Real Mark on 03.05.19 at 8:27 pm

“Do corporations in Canada that earn money in various provinces only pay income tax where they have head office?”

Nope. They pay in every province in which they do business. Of course, there’s lots of incentive to shift high value activities to the provinces that have the lowest tax rates. For instance, a major Canadian drugstore chain headquartered in Toronto shifted the ownership of their trademarks to an Alberta numbered company and accrues taxable income in Alberta due to licensing fees paid nationally to use said trademarks. Purely a play on Alberta’s lowest-in-the-nation corporate tax rates.

Come to think of it in my own small business I only pay Federal and Alberta income tax.

Assuming you’re the newsletter writer that delivers to my inbox occasionally, basically your value-add activity is entirely in the Province of Alberta, and you’re just selling/shipping a made in Alberta good out of province. Not really conducting business out of province.

Are there battles between provinces as to where the profits were made and should be taxed?

Yes, the Tax Court of Canada sees various cases relating to what is known as ‘nexus’. Interprovincial businesses will usually retain external consultants to help them work through issues relating to internal transfer pricing. Significantly removing the perception of conflict-of-interest in the eyes of the CRA.

Who sets the rules on this the provinces or the Feds?

My understanding is that it is largely a question of fact, and of jurisprudence. Not hard and fast rules set forth in legislation.

Anyone know?

Well certainly don’t take my word for it if you believe you have an issue, seek proper professional advice. But a typical example, that of a head office rendering services to branch offices in each province, each of those branch offices will prepare an accounting of their profit or loss, and services, such as that of management, IT support, etc., that are rendered from head office will be deductible expenses for the purposes of their taxable income.

#65 akashic record on 03.05.19 at 8:34 pm

Privately owned platform bans vs freedom of speech, provided by Constitution

Great discussion with Twitter CEO and VP, heats up around 1 hr into a 3.5 hour debate

https://youtu.be/DZCBRHOg3PQ

#66 Overstatement Made? on 03.05.19 at 8:37 pm

Something doesn’t add up, because we were led to believe one thing, but now this popped up. 80% of all employees working for SNC – Lavalin are employed outside of Canada. It beats me what is going on here with past statements made.

#67 Mikeshouse on 03.05.19 at 8:38 pm

@ #55 Shawn Allen

He is entirely honest in that he knows through experience that he cannot please everyone. That being young Trudeau’s gravest error.
He cuts through NDP Horse Hockey like a hot knife through butter.

#68 Smith X on 03.05.19 at 8:46 pm

With the benchmark sale price for a Vancouver house at 1.4 million I dont know how much of a difference this will make. 30 year amortizations on a $1 million dollar mortgage will change your payment from about $4800 to $4300. Since most people take out smaller mortgages this may decrease monthly payments by $200-$300. I suppose it could be impactful for 1 bedroom condos. $200-$300 is about 50k added to the price.

I just dont see this doing anything for the Vancoiver market. How many banks will approve a mortgage of $4300 a month even under the current rules?

I just plugged it into ratehub and for 1.45 million house with 400k down you need an income of $200k. This would be reduced somewhat by rental income. I suppose you could get your income qualification down to 160k. Sounds pretty onerous to me even at 30 years. The prices would have to come down. About 60% of the houses listed in Vancouver are over $2 million. Very few locals can afford that.

#69 not 1st on 03.05.19 at 8:50 pm

This is for nonplussed. He will like it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N-yALPEpV4w

Why renewables can’t save the planet

#70 Stats freak on 03.05.19 at 8:56 pm

Okay, enough with all the depressing economy/debt levels/government/etc……how about a recent picture of Bandit please !!

#71 Yuus bin Haad on 03.05.19 at 9:12 pm

They’ve inserted a picture of Seymour in the online dictionary under the word “irrelevant” (just before he Butts heads with The Committee) – oh my.

#72 Vampire Studies on 03.05.19 at 9:13 pm

There are lots of angry people on this blog. What makes them angry?

Trump
Trudeau
Taxes
Climate change (and its denial)
real estate prices
Boomers
Mills
Cats

#73 David Driven on 03.05.19 at 9:18 pm

Pros know we’re already in a recession. The Great Liberal Bullcrap Machine aka CBC is in full denial. FB and Google have also agreed to shut down all negative commentary against Trudeau. It’s all hands on board for an African style election…corrupt corrupt corrupt

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/traders-bet-canadian-economy-can-t-stomach-positive-real-rates-1.1223869

#74 Shawn Allen on 03.05.19 at 9:23 pm

Paying Tax in each Province

Mark responded:

For instance, a major Canadian drugstore chain headquartered in Toronto shifted the ownership of their trademarks to an Alberta numbered company and accrues taxable income in Alberta due to licensing fees paid nationally to use said trademarks. Purely a play on Alberta’s lowest-in-the-nation corporate tax rates.

**************************************
I will have no make an exception to my policy of not responding to or about Mark.

Thank you for the informative answers. I was interested in this as a native of Nova Scotia wondering if the little provinces are losing potential income tax revenue.

Your answers make sense. If I were Nova Scotia I would think of hiring lots of tax auditors to go after this and and the transfer prices.

The idea of a drugstore chain headquartered in Toronto shifting their trademarks to Alberta to save taxes is disgusting and the kind of thing the other provinces (Ontario in this case) should simply disallow on the tax return and let the company sue to try to overturn.

Similarly when Valeant and many others shift intellectual property (and therefore income) to luxemburg it disgusts me. As an investor I try to avoid companies that are very aggressive in shifting profits to tax havens. It’s a red flag to me.

Another company that had like 50 Virgin island subsidiaries back in the day was Sino Forest. Huge red flag.

I figure if management is willing to basically (even legally) cheat the tax man today, then tomorrow they might cheat the share owners. Unethical (even if legal) is as unethical does.

#75 Bob on 03.05.19 at 9:39 pm

DELETED

#76 Dominoes Lining Up on 03.05.19 at 9:39 pm

It seems all around people are struggling more with household debt than the last couple of years. We will be at a turning point I think with this spring’s quiet market.

Interesting to see a strange sudden spike in Canada the last few weeks in people Google searching the term “foreclosure”.

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=CA&q=foreclosure

#77 Ustabe on 03.05.19 at 9:44 pm

40 year amortizations are a wonderful thing if you also have cash flow and know what you are doing. Our long ago CPA explained it to my brother and me when Harper first allowed them. Took us from a couple of guys who had some rentals to a couple of guys who owned a mid sized property management company that held real value.

And a PSA: the comments here are archived. visible. readable. It is giving me great pleasure watching all of the white knighting going on towards a First Nations woman given previous well documented comments towards women and First Nations. On this site…and those are the ones Garth allowed to stand.

How about we turn our collective massive intellect towards proposing solutions instead of blathering in masturbatory glee about the supposed demise of Trudeau? Because Sheer is not a solution.

Ford firing Blair is a bigger issue. The disconnect between Alberta and the rest of Canada should be a bigger issue. The fanboy Trumpification of our process in Canada should be a bigger issue. Here is a hint…it starts with you.

#78 PastThePeak on 03.05.19 at 9:54 pm

#69 not 1st on 03.05.19 at 8:50 pm
This is for nonplussed. He will like it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N-yALPEpV4w

Why renewables can’t save the planet
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Indeed, it is relatively straightforward math and physics. The parameters and equations have been known for a few decades, but somehow with the 100s of billions $$ spent on global warming “research” very few are able to understand the simple results (renewables won’t cut it).

Aside from the energy density issue (those 3 words will lose 90% of the typical audience), would any good engineer design a system where the only forms of energy production are entirely dependent upon the weather? When the believed calamity is “climate change”? Would be a shame to spend trillions of $$ on windmills and solar panels if the climate shifts and wind blows less in those areas, or sunny places become a bit cloudier.

For a movement that tries to claim “you have to follow the science”, it comes across as remarkably dense and seemingly unable to “use science”.

#79 good times on 03.05.19 at 10:01 pm

Lifes what you make it.

bought my first house, 100 year old rowhouse dwntwn toronto 17 years ago. Narrative was much the same as it is now – end of the world stuff. A few houses later, mortgage free, balanced portfolio, healthy happy family.
Life is good. Maybe set aside all the negativity and enjoy your life whilst you’re alive?

#80 rknusa on 03.05.19 at 10:14 pm

things may be slowing down in TO and Van but it is panic buying in London and Windsor

homes in both locales are up over 50% in the last two years, even Chatham

damn market is insane

they are slowly pricing me out of every corner of the Ontario market

#81 Juve101 on 03.05.19 at 10:27 pm

Please don’t close the comments section. Though I do wonder sometimes how you can stomach wading through and moderating so much crap, it does add value to the blog overall and some commentators are actually good.
Thanks for your blog, totally addicted since I discovered it couple of years ago.

#82 DON on 03.05.19 at 10:31 pm

#28 Smile on 03.05.19 at 6:24 pm

I will Fast Forward Canadian Economic News 6 months ahead of Schedule… Bill Morneau has aided the Big 5 Banks in covering up Money Laundering activity especially in BC. Cant say noone was warned…The Dude is beyond Bad News.
****************
I swear I read the above in a Marc Cohodes tweet last night?

#83 Shawn Allen on 03.05.19 at 10:56 pm

Another reason for lower mortgage rates

The costs banks face to administer a mortgage is way down. Almost all payments are electronic. Lower costs should lead to lower mortgage rates.

In theory banks SHOULD compete viciously for mortgage business. “Selling” a loan is to sell the ultimate commodity. A borrower should care very little about which bank provides the loan. Especially among the big 5 banks. You can get a mortgage at any one and pay from your “home” bank chequing account. You can use a mortgage broker to shop around. In theory, such a commodity business lending to CMHC insured borrowers should be a low profit business due to severe competition.

I wonder what kind of ROE is made on a 2.99% mortgage? I welcome this latest sign of competition. If high profits are being made in such a commodity business where it is so very easy to shop around then the word collusion must spring to mind.

#84 Nonplused on 03.05.19 at 11:12 pm

#29 Shawn Allen

“Much of the carbon tax will go out in cheques to low income people. I’m okay with that. Some of the carbon tax will go to try to lower emissions in some way. That is as it should be.”

Nope, it won’t. You know what happens when you give poor people money? They spend it. You know what happens when people spend money? They use carbon.

It’s just a tax and it doesn’t change a damn thing raising the HST wouldn’t have. Not one single thing. But you’d have to explain why you wanted to raise the HST, whereas carbon come with its own sales pitch.

#85 TooMuchInformation on 03.05.19 at 11:15 pm

“Real estate is giving up momentum and people no longer talk about it during sex.”

Not true. Just ask my wife. When she says I am “detached”, that nearly bursts my bubble!

#86 Nonplused on 03.05.19 at 11:17 pm

#69 not 1st

I’m “nonplused” not “nonplussed”. Now I realize you are spelling it correctly and I am not but the correct spelling was already taken on most forums when I started using it so I dropped an s.

I am watching your video. It’s 17 minutes long so maybe I’ll comment later.

#87 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.05.19 at 11:18 pm

DELETED

#88 souvereigninternational on 03.05.19 at 11:35 pm

@Realmark “Anecdotally, a lot of housing appears to be hoarded. Either explicitly, ie: an investor holding an empty condo unit. Or implicitly, ie: an elderly widow living in a million dollar house with little income other than CPP. Falling prices will drive a lot of that supply to market as “appreciation” (whether real, or fake post-2013 ‘appreciation’) can no longer cover up the expenses associated with such” well said Mark, there will be negative FOMA

#89 Looney Baloney on 03.05.19 at 11:37 pm

Wow. Spoken like a true police chick with a chip on her shoulder. A lil taste of power and it goes straight to her head. The coming commies will need more of her kind.

And patience is right. Winter is here. The real bargains are coming.

#90 Nonplused on 03.05.19 at 11:47 pm

#69 not 1st

I am done watching your video now and yes I did like it, except for the fact he didn’t mention the potential of Gen IV. But I guess that could be implied by further development.

But it strikes me it was not necessarily wise to associate my handle with the video. This is an important video everyone should see, but I have a lot of haters who wouldn’t watch it just because I might like it.

Most of you won’t remember that I did some consulting work for the company that built Ivanhoe. It really didn’t work out as planned. The original concept was to focus sunlight via mirror (those are mirrors you see in the photos not solar panels) on a collector tower to drive a steam turbine. The idea was when the sun didn’t shine they could use natural gas to fire the same turbines and still produce power. Not only was the efficiency poor, but yes it really does cause birds to erupt into flames. It’s sort of like baking an ant with a magnifying glass. All the sun falling on several acres is being reflected into a very small spot and the resultant heat is incredible. Oh well I guess ideas need to be tried. This one failed.

#91 David Driven on 03.06.19 at 12:18 am

DELETED

#92 Cdn Expat on 03.06.19 at 12:37 am

#23 oakville stinks on 03.05.19 at 6:06 pm
Price decline in Oakville Ontario…. 0%!!!

Actually average prices in Oakville for February were the lowest since April 2016 according to the latest data from the Oakville Milton Real Estate Board.

#93 Smoking Man on 03.06.19 at 1:00 am

Look at the wages for tech workers below link.
Toronto the lowest. TFW = supply.

The reason helocks sky high.. folks not making enough.
A bottle of wine I pay 8 bucks for in SoCal is 30 at the LCBO

No rebound in Toronto real estate. People are out of money.

https://hired.com/state-of-salaries-2018

#94 Overheardyou on 03.06.19 at 1:54 am

By any chance is it possible to find stats on what percentage of the purchases in the last decade were by speculators/second home owners? Cause me thinks if it was a large percentage, then it’ll quite a show this Spring. Those houses aren’t getting any cheaper to upkeep

#95 Midnights on 03.06.19 at 3:57 am

China blocks canola shipments from Canadian company as tensions mount

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-china-blocks-canola-shipments-by-winnipegs-richardson-international/

#96 OffshoreObserver on 03.06.19 at 5:21 am

I have been offshore (Thailand, Vietnam and USA) since 2010.

Both parents deceased and not much traction with relatives. Vancouver seems to be rotting from its downtown core.

I used to be proud of her for almost 60 years, especially in the Summer and Fall.

Now the druggies seem to be taking over. And the inexorable, steadily marching Socialism haunts me.

I remember back in the late 70s when a Canadian’s per capita debt was $40K, I asked my Father why I could not tell Ottawa to stop running up my tab. He laughed but also complained about paying 50% marginal rate.

This brings me to my question to you, Garth: Why don’t you address the John Gault 2.0 Option?

That would be expatriating from Canada, paying the accrued capital gains.

In my particular situation, I calculate a one time hit of about $500K.

However, after the expatriation, no more taxes.

FOMO would be redefined if because one never fled, his cumulative tax bill were less if he exited than if remained.

#97 Gravy Train on 03.06.19 at 6:12 am

#90 Nonplused on 03.05.19 at 11:47 pm
“… but I have a lot of haters.…” We don’t hate you; we just pity you! :)

#98 Captain Uppa on 03.06.19 at 6:43 am

Garth, would so love a blog piece on move-up buying and your thoughts on that … especially during a time like this.

Oh and to end with a quote:

“uppa, Uppa, UPPA” – Bill Morneau

#99 N on 03.06.19 at 7:57 am

Now this is interesting…

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/calgary-tax-burden-1.5044403

#100 ALL BUTTS ON THE GROUND! on 03.06.19 at 8:00 am

Yeeehawwww!

All you whining SJWs, treehuggers and glutonfree femanist millenials, get ready to watch your dreams CRASH and BURN Today!

Canada is going CONSERVATIVE for a loooong time after what is revealed today. Forget all your tax-the-rich slogans and climate change hysteria, you losers.

Get ready to have your BUTTS handed to you!

Popcorn ready :)

#101 not 1st on 03.06.19 at 8:03 am

#97 Gravy Train on 03.06.19 at 6:12 am
#90 Nonplused on 03.05.19 at 11:47 pm
“… but I have a lot of haters.…” We don’t hate you; we just pity you! :)
—-

You pity someone who is reasoned and rational? That’s twisted.

#102 not 1st on 03.06.19 at 8:11 am

#95 Midnights on 03.06.19 at 3:57 am
China blocks canola shipments from Canadian company as tensions mount
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-china-blocks-canola-shipments-by-winnipegs-richardson-international/
——

Trudeau and his band of navel gazing imbeciles wiped $100M dollars yesterday of our annual export trade and put a multi billion dollar export in critical jeopardy. If this was on the TSX the exchange would have been halted.

So SNC has a lot of jobs, oh those poor engineers.

The canola industry contributes billions to the economy and supports 250,000 jobs.

https://www.canolacouncil.org/markets-stats/industry-overview/

#103 James on 03.06.19 at 8:16 am

DELETED

#104 Tater on 03.06.19 at 8:27 am

#65 akashic record on 03.05.19 at 8:34 pm
Privately owned platform bans vs freedom of speech, provided by Constitution

Great discussion with Twitter CEO and VP, heats up around 1 hr into a 3.5 hour debate

https://youtu.be/DZCBRHOg3PQ
—————————————————————-
And? Anyone who feels that their view is being suppressed by Twitter can go start their own social network. There is no right to be on Twitter.

Of course, the conservatives who are banned, know that they can’t build an audience based off their own ideas, they need a Twitter to attach themselves to. So, the whinging begins.

#105 James on 03.06.19 at 8:43 am

#93 Smoking Man on 03.06.19 at 1:00 am
Look at the wages for tech workers below link.
Toronto the lowest. TFW = supply.
The reason helocks sky high.. folks not making enough.
A bottle of wine I pay 8 bucks for in SoCal is 30 at the LCBO
No rebound in Toronto real estate. People are out of money.
https://hired.com/state-of-salaries-2018
____________________________________________
So again Old Man whats your point Captain Oblivious. You are in SoCal, why are you so preoccupied with what goes on here Old Man. You don’t have any skin in the game here? Now go back to your shuffle board and feed the pigeons.

#106 David Driven on 03.06.19 at 8:45 am

https://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/bond-traders-are-trimming-bets-on-bank-of-canada-hikes

There, no rate increases, period. In fact because Trudeau is in so much trouble I look for increased spending on focus group speak and a decrease in rates as the recession blossoms. Trudeau will wreck this country before he’s bounced with more damage than can be fixed. Expect religious wars and a divisive social battle, like the resisting losing side Democrats are waging against Trump.

#2 Real Mark, right airfares are tumbling for flights to Asia. Why not, smart subsidies are bring record numbers and billions of free foreign capital. While Trudeau brings in warriors, beheaders, slavers, murderers and rapists, Asian government’s are raking in billions….wouldn’t it be possible that Asian government’s are the opposite if Trudeaus plan? Trudeau is chasing hundreds of billions out of the country. It seems the smartest guys are running government’s in Asia, while Canada gets despicable goons and traitors focused solely on EU globalism. The Asians are saying “come and spend” while Trudeau is saying ” how fast can I wreck this country before I get the boot”.

#107 Headhunter on 03.06.19 at 9:08 am

No rebound in Toronto real estate. People are out of money.

_________________________________________

100% true. Im in staffing, I see what the market pays for most jobs. Now the mind set changes and people realise they have been wasting their most precious commodity… Time

#108 n1tro on 03.06.19 at 9:24 am

#69 not 1st on 03.05.19 at 8:50 pm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N-yALPEpV4w

Why renewables can’t save the planet
—————————-
Renewables can’t save the planet is obvious for rational people who question paying a guilt tax on just living (ie. climate deniers as we are called). What gets me about the guy’s presentation is there was no condemnation of the actions of the eco-idiots (including himself) as they cleared the desert and killed the wildlife in an misguided/uneconomical attempt to save the climate.

#109 CanadianGrizzly on 03.06.19 at 9:53 am

… something that looked like a kinky neocon fantasy

Yup, I’m having one now. I a perfect world we’d have Trump, Ford, Mad Max (Scheer doesn’t act like a neocon – lol) just to trigger the SJWs on this blog.

#110 Smoking Man on 03.06.19 at 10:01 am

James on 03.06.19 at 8:43 am
#93 Smoking Man on 03.06.19 at 1:00 am
Look at the wages for tech workers below link.
Toronto the lowest. TFW = supply.
The reason helocks sky high.. folks not making enough.
A bottle of wine I pay 8 bucks for in SoCal is 30 at the LCBO
No rebound in Toronto real estate. People are out of money.
https://hired.com/state-of-salaries-2018
____________________________________________
So again Old Man whats your point Captain Oblivious. You are in SoCal, why are you so preoccupied with what goes on here Old Man. You don’t have any skin in the game here? Now go back to your shuffle board and feed the pigeons..

Just putting out the reasons why I think real estate as an asset class in Toronto is doomed. Apart from housing here everything is 1/2 price compared to Toronto. Now the bench mark wage in the link of 73 k for an IT dude pays more income tax than someone making 150k in USA.

The loyal subjects in Canada are getting fleeced on everything.

So how the hell do you see a resurgents in real estate.
Won’t happen. People are broke and over extended.

When you earn a PhD in Hedonomics then we can talk.
Now go shovel the snow.

#111 thesecondcomingofjohngalt on 03.06.19 at 10:14 am

Hi Garth, please don’t shut the comment section down, your blog ,and the comment section are an integral part of my daily morning rituals.ps;(how is Bandit doing?)

#112 millmech on 03.06.19 at 10:18 am

No problem with 30/40 year mortgages as they are already here, just renew every 5 years at a 25 year amortization, do that 3 times and you now are in a 40 year mortgage. Of course the interest you will pay will be quite substantial but who is counting really(over double the original mortgage)
Now add on a 8 year car loan that is rolled over into a new car loan every 6 years with negative equity and you have people owing $80k-$100k on vehicles that are worth much less that and if they had to sell they would be owing $30k-$50k to the bank. So they just keep on cycling through.
Phone plans are great, get a new phone every year and keep adding just another $10/mth per phone to the plan and the family phone plans now approaches $500/mth .
Once you start adding up how some people finance the consumer driven lifestyle you are amazed at how much money is thrown away on interest payments.
I just watch these people (coworkers) do this to themselves for years now, they are in worse shape financially after 25-30 years of servitude to the company than when they started. At least at beginning of their working lives they did not have a high six figure debt to service, imagine starting your career owing $600k-$700k, you would say that your nuts. Sadly after half way through their working lives a lot of people are here financially.

#113 AB Boxster on 03.06.19 at 10:23 am

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-seniors-with-unrentable-homes-near-vancouver-face-huge-speculation-tax-2/

What a bizarre article.

Firstly, it shows how stupid BC government policy is to tax unoccupied ‘houses’ to free up rental units.
Even though some of these places are essentially un-rentable, and if fact uninhabitable.

But no one ever accused government of any semblance of intelligence. Especially leftist governments.

Secondly it shows how financially pathetic people are.

Retired and living in a basement suite.
Paying $12000 a year for property taxes on the property.
Another $6000 a year, soon, for having an unoccupied house. (aka a piece of junk)

As the ‘cabin owner says:


“This was passed on to me by my auntie about three years ago,said Robson. She bought it in the early 1950s. During the last couple years, she said to me, ‘I’m not sure I can hold onto it. I don’t have the money.”

Robson, who has children and grandchildren, said the family uses the cabin as a summer vacation getaway.
“We can’t afford to go away, she said.”

So sitting on a piece of land worth $1.3 million.
Retired and living in a basement suite.
Paying $18,000 taxes each year to hold on to this POS property.

And you have to keep the piece of junk, worth $1,3 million, and pay $18K in taxes annually, because you ‘can’t afford to go away”
WTF?

So, while it is easy to see how insane government tax policy can be, it is also easy to see how insane people are when it comes to real estate.

Sadly, its probably not a unique story.

#114 Gravy Train on 03.06.19 at 10:25 am

#101 not 1st on 03.06.19 at 8:03 am
“You pity someone who is reasoned and rational? That’s twisted.” Tell me again how much you love and adore the archcriminal and übervillain Donald Trump! Now that’s twisted! :)

#115 LL on 03.06.19 at 10:25 am

….”Here is an opportunity for someone, this price reflects the very high possibility of a $70,000 assessment due to be paid to the strata within the year, as well as possible future payments”….

44 years old condo (almost a character condo!)..good deal..asking 196K now 175K! What an opportunity!

Poor guy…he is stock with that condo!

#116 Sold Out on 03.06.19 at 10:30 am

Ya know Garth, I admire your ability to sift through the comments every day, trying to maintain some semblence of decorum and civility while allowing a lively debate on politics, finance and real estate. Unfortunately, it only takes a small group of loons, climate deniers, xenophobes, and Trump supporters to drive off those who hold a more rational and balanced view of the world. I have come to agree with your readers who have proposed the addition of an up/down vote feature to the comments section, which would banish these unsupported arguments/screeds to the end of the line. Seeing how little traction their ideas actually get, these outliers might be distracted by something shinier, elsewhere.

Facts and logic only work on people who respect the knowledge and experience of the source; it’s pretty clear that a small minority of those who comment here, with depressing regularity, treat their host and fellow readers with palpable contempt.

#117 Stan Brooks on 03.06.19 at 10:38 am

We managed to destroy the economy with this housing super bubble.

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/bank-canada-leaves-interest-rates-unchanged-150022405.html

The loonie dived.

With big budget deficit and credit growth we get…. 0.1 % increase on quarterly basis, if we account for the real inflation (no sub 2 %, but the real 8 + %) we probably shrunk by 2 % on quarterly basis.

The ‘loonie’ is going to be flushed down to its real value of 40 euro-cents, 45 US cents.

Bread at 6-8 bucks? Sure. Just wait.

The CPP and OAS ‘pensions’? Enough to rent a washroom in a big city.

What a piece of garbage this place has become, specially the big cities. Just look at the BoC’s boss. Pathetic incompetent bureaucrat with zero practical experience outside of government.

Banker, my behind. Severely limited intellectually at best and he is behind our currency.

I won’t regret going out of the ‘loonie’ or denominated assets, it plays out perfectly, as expected.

Runaway inflation, inability to increase rates, skyrocketing cost of living (groceries, rents) of 10 % annually. No floor for the ‘economy’.

And the real estate con artists want more from the morally bankrupt politicians. 30 years mortgage. Why not? Make it 50, interest only, ‘insured’ by the taxpayers.

And the good news is that as everything goes up in prices, you will be taxed on ‘capital gains’ on investments. Beauty.

#118 NoName on 03.06.19 at 10:42 am

#104 Tater on 03.06.19 at 8:27 am
#65 akashic record on 03.05.19 at 8:34 pm
Privately owned platform bans vs freedom of speech, provided by Constitution

Great discussion with Twitter CEO and VP, heats up around 1 hr into a 3.5 hour debate

https://youtu.be/DZCBRHOg3PQ
—————————————————————-
And? Anyone who feels that their view is being suppressed by Twitter can go start their own social network. There is no right to be on Twitter.

Of course, the conservatives who are banned, know that they can’t build an audience based off their own ideas, they need a Twitter to attach themselves to. So, the whinging begins.

that was so deep…

What funny that you missed most obvious thing, when occupy wally street tim pool who is definitely very far on a left, comes out as hardcore conservative in conversation…

Why dont you just leave this coment section and strat your own, i wish that i have power to ban you little while to teach you falacy of your argument.

Mr T, can you please delete his replay if does, and than tartar will start to gain understanding what was being discussed on that video for 3 hours. Or even better just ban him for a while, please.

#119 Fish on 03.06.19 at 10:52 am

April 24?

in the meantime came across CBC article

OPINION
Fixed vs. variable: mortgage rate predictions for 2019

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/fixed-vs-variable-mortgage-rate-predictions-for-2019-1.4983997

#120 IHCTD9 on 03.06.19 at 11:17 am

#116 LL on 03.06.19 at 10:25 am
….”Here is an opportunity for someone, this price reflects the very high possibility of a $70,000 assessment due to be paid to the strata within the year, as well as possible future payments”….

44 years old condo (almost a character condo!)..good deal..asking 196K now 175K! What an opportunity!

Poor guy…he is stock with that condo!
____

Instructive for current condo owners too. Today’s leaky glass crap boxes will be at this point after 30 years – maybe less – because of how they’re built.

A real house slowly goes up in value over time in most markets. Condos go to zero, all of them; it’s just a mater of how long it will take.

#121 LL on 03.06.19 at 11:21 am

#114

The owner should sell the place.
Lot value 1.3 millions!

#122 dharma bum on 03.06.19 at 11:31 am

Make Ryan and Doug and the new guy (what’s his face) take turns moderating the comments.
Take a break.
At least two of those dudes have been riding your coat tails for too long anyway.
Make ’em work!
I bet those Porches and Rolexes are financed.

#123 LL on 03.06.19 at 11:31 am

“Real estate is giving up momentum and people no longer talk about it during sex.”

Now..no more sex, too much debt! :)
Time changed!

#124 Yukon Elvis on 03.06.19 at 11:38 am

Like in the Third World :

s Kelowna ready for co-housing?

SMARTer Growth Partnership sure thinks it is.

“It’s exactly the right time,” committee member Craig Hostland said.

The organization is holding a co-housing public information meeting on Wednesday night at Kelowna’s Innovation Centre. The goal is to inform the audience about co-housing and to get a feel for the city’s desire for it. The session begins at 7 p.m.

Co-housing is a physical space for a number of families, and it consists of common and private areas.

“It starts with assembling a cohort, a like-minded group of families, that essentially want to cohabitate,” Hostland said. “This is not communal. This is no co-op housing. This is 25 to 30 intelligent families that recognize the value of a socially interactive environment, but they want their own space as well.”

For more on this story, visit Okanagan Edge.

#125 Mattl on 03.06.19 at 12:13 pm

My balanced (66/34) as of yesterdays close is at 8.01% YTD net fee’s. Curious to see how everyone else is doing.

#126 Smoking Man on 03.06.19 at 12:27 pm

Sold Out on 03.06.19 at 10:30 am
Ya know Garth, I admire your ability to sift through the comments every day, trying to maintain some semblence of decorum and civility while allowing a lively debate on politics, finance and real estate. Unfortunately, it only takes a small group of loons, climate deniers, xenophobes, and Trump supporters to drive off those who hold a more rational and balanced view of the world. I have come to agree with your readers who have proposed the addition of an up/down vote feature to the comments section, which would banish these unsupported arguments/screeds to the end of the line. Seeing how little traction their ideas actually get, these outliers might be distracted by something shinier, elsewhere.

Facts and logic only work on people who respect the knowledge and experience of the source; it’s pretty clear that a small minority of those who comment here, with depressing regularity, treat their host and fellow readers with palpable contempt.
….

Only takes a small group of loons to drive people away.

If the left had a valid argument I’m sure they would fight it. But they dont so they run away and call for censorship.. mini ice age coming. I suggest burning 3 times the co2 we do now. Only way to save humanity.

#127 Damifino on 03.06.19 at 12:32 pm

I don’t think Butts is helping.

#128 Sold Out on 03.06.19 at 12:39 pm

#127 SM

Allowing fellow blog readers to express their opinions on and rank the posts of others is anything but censorship. Only in the addled brains of the childishly petulant does a democratic process equal censorship. Perhaps you feel that “seniority” on this blog entitles one to spout gibberish unopposed? Isn’t that kinda like how unions work?

#129 not 1st on 03.06.19 at 12:46 pm

Hope everyone is enjoying the hinterland whos who moment at committee today featuring the wild northern weasel on display.

#130 Stan Brooks on 03.06.19 at 1:09 pm

Seniors struggling to keep up with debt as delinquencies rise

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/seniors-struggling-keep-debt-delinquencies-rise-185217994.html

I guess they/the seniors forgot to send a thank you letter to BoC, T2 and the french villa guy for their good care of the economy.

#131 Lee on 03.06.19 at 1:16 pm

Isn’t there some kind of manual in the PMO that is supposed to help keep people in government from making themselves look like total asses in public?

#132 LL on 03.06.19 at 1:22 pm

# 121
“A real house slowly goes up in value over time in most markets. Condos go to zero, all of them; it’s just a mater of how long it will take”

I am agree with you, but today lots of houses are build really cheap.
House fire in Halifax couple of weeks ago…no gybroc in the wall to slow fire or at least contain fire!

#133 James on 03.06.19 at 1:31 pm

#111 Smoking Man on 03.06.19 at 10:01 am

James on 03.06.19 at 8:43 am
#93 Smoking Man on 03.06.19 at 1:00 am
Look at the wages for tech workers below link.
Toronto the lowest. TFW = supply.
The reason helocks sky high.. folks not making enough.
A bottle of wine I pay 8 bucks for in SoCal is 30 at the LCBO
No rebound in Toronto real estate. People are out of money.
https://hired.com/state-of-salaries-2018
____________________________________________
So again Old Man whats your point Captain Oblivious. You are in SoCal, why are you so preoccupied with what goes on here Old Man. You don’t have any skin in the game here? Now go back to your shuffle board and feed the pigeons..
……………………..…
Just putting out the reasons why I think real estate as an asset class in Toronto is doomed. Apart from housing here everything is 1/2 price compared to Toronto. Now the bench mark wage in the link of 73 k for an IT dude pays more income tax than someone making 150k in USA.
The loyal subjects in Canada are getting fleeced on everything.
So how the hell do you see a resurgents in real estate.
Won’t happen. People are broke and over extended.
When you earn a PhD in Hedonomics then we can talk.
Now go shovel the snow.
_________________________________________
As I said you Crazy Old Man go feed the pigeons. I have a snow blower and your concern with our wellbeing up here in the great white north is quite tender. However your exculpatory rhetoric concerning the ownership of domiciles is something you should not comment on given the evidence as you do not own a home and are a renter. So are we discussing housing ownership here? Buy a home and write me back. As far as your FAKE Herdonomics degree, well I two real ones here in my office. Lets see which ones are the more recognized and credible in the real world. Where did you get the half price BS data Old Man? Did you pull it out of your Depends? Try google Old Man I hear its very good!

https://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/compare_cities.jsp?country1=United+States&city1=Los+Angeles%2C+CA&country2=Canada&city2=Toronto

#134 IHCTD9 on 03.06.19 at 1:39 pm

#130 not 1st on 03.06.19 at 12:46 pm
Hope everyone is enjoying the hinterland whos who moment at committee today featuring the wild northern weasel on display.
_____

Can’t read anything on Butts till I get home – filter at work blocks it. “page not safe”, “mature content” lol.

#135 IHCTD9 on 03.06.19 at 1:42 pm

#133 LL on 03.06.19 at 1:22 pm
# 121
“A real house slowly goes up in value over time in most markets. Condos go to zero, all of them; it’s just a mater of how long it will take”
—-

I am agree with you, but today lots of houses are build really cheap.
House fire in Halifax couple of weeks ago…no gybroc in the wall to slow fire or at least contain fire!

——-

I meant to say “slowly goes up in value till it catches fire” :)

At least with a house you’ve got the land still, and hopefully a fat insurance cheque!

#136 Alex on 03.06.19 at 1:50 pm

in GT’s March 3 post he recommended 5% weighting in REIT. Was that Canadian REIT or can it be global? Mine is in the latter but looking for clarifications from the blog dogs or even the dogfather himself. Thanks

#137 The Hearing on 03.06.19 at 2:01 pm

It was rather boring for the most part. Butts made a chilling statement that said it all. The only time he knew that the Attorney General had made up her mind was when he saw her testimony on television. I would say that this was next to impossible, and if this was the case, all he said throughout becomes suspect.

#138 jess on 03.06.19 at 2:37 pm

investment scheme “get rich quick”?

Sunday 3 March 2019 10:57pm
Claims against banks in Disney tax avoidance case could pass £1bn
http://www.cityam.com/274072/claims-against-banks-disney-tax-avoidance-case-could-pass

“The UK Supreme Court ruled that the investment vehicles were tax avoidance schemes, leaving investors liable for hefty tax bills, sometimes at least ten times the amount of their initial capital investment.”
http://www.cityam.com/273442/hsbc-sued-150m-relation-disney-tax-avoidance-scheme

#139 Renter's Revenge! on 03.06.19 at 2:45 pm

#135 IHCTD9 on 03.06.19 at 1:39 pm
#130 not 1st on 03.06.19 at 12:46 pm
Hope everyone is enjoying the hinterland whos who moment at committee today featuring the wild northern weasel on display.
_____

Can’t read anything on Butts till I get home – filter at work blocks it. “page not safe”, “mature content” lol.

==================================

You could say that Trudeau is taking it up the Butts right now.

(hopefully that makes it through this site’s “filter”)

#140 Crazyfox on 03.06.19 at 3:01 pm

#117 Sold Out on 03.06.19 at 10:30 am

Well said. All I have time for, quite busy but well said. Ok, I’ll take a couple minutes. The latest consensus on percentages of mental health conditions is 18% of the U.S. adult population with Canada I presume, around the same numbers. Of this 18%, 9% is physically related (brain damage, chemical imbalance, closely related to diet and lifestyles) with dementia making up lion’s share. The other 9% or the other half of mental health conditions swirl around PD’s or Personality disorders.

So, 9% of the population has a brain that isn’t physically functioning properly to the point of physical disease, and the other 9% of the population has a brain that can’t function properly socially because of what they have learned socially from their environment. I won’t get into the percentages people with metabolic disorders (54%) half of which has a full blown metabolic syndrome (chronic illness i.e. cancer, diabetes, heart disease etc) but only say that the world is full of sick people and it can be well argued that its in the backdrop of a dying planet.

Reality is hard, often depressing stuff and the only way through it is to face it or we end up with a fake existence. That facade state of existence in others is obvious not just by the fake things they say and represent but to those who look for the identification and solutions to poor mental health and what is just as obvious is how prevalent poor mental health truly is.

Don’t be surprised by it here, or elsewhere, wherever you go, its everywhere and when it comes to politics, policy, systems like money and how income itself is regulated and taxed, the false arguments, the histrionics, the naked self interests etc. all have this common theme or cause underneath the veil of personality disorders.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Personality_disorder

That common theme is inequality born out of superior/inferior that leads to all forms of discrimination or technically, every offense imaginable. It is the cause to all division, all grudges, all hatred and ultimately, all war. This is the cause to socially learned poor mental health, it won’t be cured any time soon and its dangerous enough to end civilization if we let it to wit, “Life is not a zero sum game”.

Success and failure, winning and losing… its important, but its not everything as effort matters more. When we look back on our lives, its not the results that we’ll remember most, its the intensity of effort. Success and failure are secondary always, to effort. It reminds me of a poem by Rudyard Kipling, a good read in this context:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/If%E2%80%94

#141 Barb on 03.06.19 at 3:03 pm

#106 David Driven on 03.06.19 at 8:45 am

“Trudeau will wreck this country before he’s bounced with more damage than can be fixed.”

————————————

T2 has difficulty understanding the Cause and Effect law.

#142 not 1st on 03.06.19 at 3:03 pm

#134 James on 03.06.19 at 1:31 pm
—-

Maybe you haven’t heard cause nobody went up there to tell you, SM has called at least half a dozen major political and economic events, that’s why he gets a pass for some colorful posts.

If he has even take a small bet on what he has called they guy has cashed in big time. He is working on another bet, extraditing his capital from Canada. I think he is absolutely on the right track.

#143 AK on 03.06.19 at 3:14 pm

#139 The Hearing on 03.06.19 at 2:01 pm
” Butts made a chilling statement that said it all. ”
=====================================
What was the point of this clown’s testimony? He didn’t even testify under oath.

Anyway, the Liberal Party will be decimated next election. Hopefully, It won’t take much to get Canada back on track.

#144 45north on 03.06.19 at 3:36 pm

Long-Time Lurker: For all those here who get a kick out of calling John Horgan “comrade”

guilty as charged

#145 Penny Henny on 03.06.19 at 3:41 pm

#126 Mattl on 03.06.19 at 12:13 pm
My balanced (66/34) as of yesterdays close is at 8.01% YTD net fee’s. Curious to see how everyone else is doing.
///////////////

8.26%

#146 James on 03.06.19 at 4:11 pm

‘Canada’s Golden Boy Loses His Shine’
Did he ever shine?
Not in my eyes.

#147 tccontrarian on 03.06.19 at 4:13 pm

#147 Penny Henny on 03.06.19 at 3:41 pm

#126 Mattl on 03.06.19 at 12:13 pm
My balanced (66/34) as of yesterdays close is at 8.01% YTD net fee’s. Curious to see how everyone else is doing.
///////////////

8.26%
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

YTD (03.05.2019): +17.69% – but I’m unbalanced and highly concentrated (my portfolio, that is…)

TCC

#148 jess on 03.06.19 at 4:30 pm

Ohio teen who vaccinated self says anti-vax mom got false info from one source: Facebook

The platform targeted advertisements and anti-vaccination materials aimed toward women in regions with high numbers of measles reports
Washington Post
Updated: March 6, 2019

https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/ct-ohio-teen-vaccination-ethan-lindenberger-20190305-story.html

=========
the “flaw” indeed !

How Facebook Flaw Let Advertisers Zero in on Just One Person
Way to bypass anonymity controls fixed now, says Facebook, after Tyee proved it exists.
By Bryan Carney Today | TheTyee.ca
https://thetyee.ca/News/2019/03/06/Facebook-Flaw-Zero-In/

#149 Shawn Allen on 03.06.19 at 5:08 pm

Digging the Liberal Hole Deeper

I saw only some of the Butts testimony, in the parts I saw he was calm and self-assured. I reserve judgment on whether his testimony helps or hurts the liberals.

Werner on the other hand was angry and lecturing and uncooperative in my view. He dug the whole down much further. Can look for a new job as a well driller.

#150 total BS on 03.06.19 at 5:59 pm

@#144 not 1st on 03.06.19 at 3:03 pm
#134 James on 03.06.19 at 1:31 pm
—-

Maybe you haven’t heard cause nobody went up there to tell you, SM has called at least half a dozen major political and economic events, that’s why he gets a pass for some colorful posts.

If he has even take a small bet on what he has called they guy has cashed in big time. He is working on another bet, extraditing his capital from Canada. I think he is absolutely on the right track.
__________________________

Sure buddy.
You’re even further out to lunch than Smokingman is.

#151 OH YA on 03.06.19 at 6:02 pm

@#147 Penny Henny on 03.06.19 at 3:41 pm
#126 Mattl on 03.06.19 at 12:13 pm
My balanced (66/34) as of yesterdays close is at 8.01% YTD net fee’s. Curious to see how everyone else is doing.
///////////////

8.26%

__________________________

Well over 20% ytd

#152 Sold Out on 03.06.19 at 7:19 pm

#142 Crazyfox

Ironically, most of my working life was spent tending to the acute needs of some of the most vulnerable, and profoundly mentally ill, people in society. Most of them still made more sense than the more colourful contributors here.

#153 Nonplused on 03.06.19 at 8:20 pm

#109 n1tro

I think he did show a lot of remorse for the tortoises moved that later died, or at least included such remorse from people involved in his discussion.

#154 Midnights on 03.07.19 at 12:04 pm

Did Trudeau move the market (TSX)?

#155 Alba on 03.07.19 at 4:00 pm

Just a comment about rates. Yes, the obviously have an impact. However, I think that those under the illusion that a small shift up or down will impact the market are focusing on the trees. The human herd has turned. The perfect storm is upon us. IMHO it will be at least end of 2020 before the herd turns again.