How to cope

Okay, kids, time for a portfolio update. Yes, 2019 has been terrific for investors. So far this year (and it just turned March) the Dow has added 11.5%. The S&P 500 is ahead 11.8%. And Bay Street has roared – up more than 12%. If markets just go sideways for the next nine months it will still be juicy.

Why the big reversal from December? The trade environment improved, and it looks like some kind of deal will be reached between the US and China. Trump stopped attacking the Fed (although he was at it again over the weekend), constantly undermining American central bank monetary policy. Corporate profits have remained robust, but no longer torrid. And investors started seeing real value in Canadian companies which had been mercilessly sold off, while the P/E ratios for US equities improved.

So here we are. The Dow is within 3% of its all-time high. Canadian bond yields have fallen 22% from a few months ago. The economy may have slowed and everyone you know is pickled in debt, but balanced and diversified portfolios have been just ducky. While the steerage section was moaning about maple last year you might have recalled the suggestion here to boot up domestic exposure a little. Now you know why. Buy low.

But the rest of 2019 might prove to be more volatile. In Canada we have a federal election and a wounded Lib government. Anything could happen after JWR. In the States Trump faces the Cohen fallout, Democratic legal challenges, a fight over his ‘emergency’ wall and, of course, the Mueller report.

Trump considers the economy (and the stock market) to be a proxy for his administration, which boosts the odds for a China deal, or another tax reduction. If the president can do anything about, the GDP will expand, unemployment sink and the Dow moonshoot for 30,000. Get set for quite a ride.

How do you invest for a year like this? Not by retreating into cash, dumping money into a low-energy GIC or (gasp) buying gold. The logic behind a 60-40 growth/fixed income portfolio remains unassailable, but a few tweaks are in order.

The big do-over: markets surge 11+ so far in 2019

First, no harm in having a little more cash on hand since this is a defensive asset and volatility lies ahead. Returns have also improved on cash instruments, so you can at least pace inflation without locking up. How much cash? Try 5%.

The remaining 35% of the fixed-income portion of the portfolio is slightly overweighted to bonds, with 13% in government debt and 7% in corporates. The position in high-yield bonds which made sense over the past few years now carries more risk. Dump it. The remainder of the FI part of the portfolio is made up of preferred shares – which have been trimmed to 15%. Prices have improved since Christmas and yields sit around 4.5%, plus you can benefit from the dividend tax credit.

On the growth side, the maple component was boosted some months ago to 21%, while US exposure was trimmed to 18% and international sits at 21%. The logic was simple. Canada was undervalued. American was inflated. Global growth is powering ahead. The home country exposure is 16% large cap and 5% in REITs. US exposure is all large cap ETFs, while international is 15% Europe and Far East plus 6% emerging markets. Of the above, a little over 20% is in US-dollar denominated funds.

Choose your exchange-traded funds carefully. Embedded fees are important, of course, but liquidity is probably more of a concern, plus the stability of the issuer. You might be tempted to buy a one-size-fits-all balanced ETF, but in doing so you’re surrendering control to an algo. You lose the ability to rebalance in a way that meets your own risk tolerance and performance goals.

Also put assets in the right places. Bonds pay interest, which is taxed more, so stick them inside an RRSP. Emerging markets are likely to be more volatile and dish up superior long-term growth, so they go inside the TFSA. The dividend tax credit on prefs can only be enjoyed in a non-registered account.

The idea of this portfolio is to protect you when markets decline, grab the growth when they advance, and keep you exposed to major asset classes. If you set it up properly, rejigging it once or twice a year (selling off the winners and buying the losers to maintain weightings) then you can basically forget about it.

The worst mistake? Easy. It’s the one most DIY investors can’t get over: buying and selling based on headlines or some pathetic blog. Despite the big crash of 2018, a 60/40 portfolio – if left completely untouched – gained 16% over the last thirty-six months. During the 2008-10 massacre, it returned an average of 5% per year. All you need do is remember the advice being thrown at you last December from commenters on this site (sell! run! sell!) to see why emotion is the enemy.

Set it. Forget it.

113 comments ↓

#1 Randy on 03.03.19 at 5:50 pm

Markets are manipulated ?? Bahahaha

#2 Rick on 03.03.19 at 5:53 pm

Dare I say it….FIRST!

#3 CGERRY BLOSSOM on 03.03.19 at 5:54 pm

Vote Max Bernier. He would leave the real estate to private enterprise and it would correct itself.

#4 Not 1st on 03.03.19 at 6:05 pm

And keep an eye out for the nation destoying black swan event brought on by Trudeau.

http://338canada.com

#5 AK on 03.03.19 at 6:14 pm

” In the States Trump faces the Cohen fallout, Democratic legal challenges, a fight over his ‘emergency’ wall and, of course, the Mueller report.”
=====================================
It’s obvious that the Democrats are not working for the American people. So therefore, President Trump will easily win the 2020 election.

#6 Fish on 03.03.19 at 6:22 pm

What does and doesn’t make sense about Ontario’s big changes to healthcare: expert

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilton/ontario-health-super-agency-1.5035185

Producer Conrad Collaco is a CBC News producer for CBC Hamilton with extensive experience in online, television and radio news. Follow him on Twitter at @ConradCollaco, or email him at [email protected].

#7 SmarterSquirrel on 03.03.19 at 6:23 pm

Garth,

In my discussions with people about their financial situations, one of the big problems is that they don’t have enough money to invest. They are living paycheck to paycheck. A big part of that is due to uncontrolled spending but another part is simply not earning enough. I use to make a very low salary but then I invested in myself and got yet another degree and was able to start earning over 3x what I was making before the degree. I suggest people look at ways to earn more money so they can save enough to start investing into a portfolio as you’ve laid out.

#8 NFN_NLN on 03.03.19 at 6:24 pm

This is the closest you’ve come to a pro Trump post. Good to see you’re finally coming around to facts. Trump is the best bet for the US and anyone that invests in the US.

#9 Josh on 03.03.19 at 6:29 pm

Garth, what medium to you use for the cash allocation? GICs, Money Market etf, Fundserv HISA…

#10 reynolds531 on 03.03.19 at 6:44 pm

For etfs…. stability of the issuer is not a consideration. Etfs are mutual fund trusts or sometimes investment trusts. Your assets are held by a custodian and segregated from the managers assets. If an ETF provider fails the custodian will either liquidate and pay you in cash or deliver underlying securities to your account.

And why would you want to go through that? – Garth

#11 dakkie on 03.03.19 at 6:49 pm

The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America Get Pricked

https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/the-most-splendid-housing-bubbles-in-america-get-pricked/

#12 crossbordershopper on 03.03.19 at 6:50 pm

people working that i have seen all are pretty much paycheque to paycheque, worse than before because they have interest expense now, they have had stagnant income and increasing costs, first their savings go to zero then they go in debt to service their lifestyle.
its pretty bad when you go to work every day knowing that at the end of the month, after all your fixed and somewhat variable expenses, and small cushion for occasional one time expenses that get averaged over a year that come up during the year. you end up with coffee money.
like people couldnt actually access a couple grand to put in an rrsp and even if they needed it in march they couldnt actually have access to debt, credit, cash of a couple grand.
paycheque to paycheque is just the start, were talking fully maxed out credit based on their income and high fixed costs, leaves no room to move. it must be scary for people to go to work and know that they end up with nothing in the end of the month or year.
and most of it all goes to nothing ,except the long term value of a home in southern ontario, that after the 25 years completely needs to be changed from the roof, flooring etc. very sad. without a pension from work or any personal savings.
the canadian structure is wrong, too many immigrants, low wages, high housing costs, high taxes, low access to debt other than consumer related debt.
average american is much better, not to compare, but the politicians of the years have diluted us all down.
cpp is very low compared to social security, and what exactly can you do with a $2500 death benefit. you cant even cremate for that money. and did you know they changed the rules its on the beneficiaries return or an actual t3 return, and want 625 bucks of that back, you believe that. what a low end slap in the face country we have to do stuff like that to dead people who worked decades and paid in for 675 bucks a month and cant even bury the person with some respect.

#13 Penny Henny on 03.03.19 at 6:58 pm

The remainder of the FI part of the portfolio is made up of preferred shares – which have been trimmed to 15%.-GT
//////////////////////////

I trimmed my preferreds to zero back in October.
Switched them to XEI, thought that I was only holding them for the dividends and they certainly were not performing as expect (rate hikes and all that jazz).
Turned out to be a good move. 14% swing plus a higher dividend.

#14 Dave on 03.03.19 at 7:11 pm

Why would you put emerging market funds in TFSAs? They’re more volatile and you will lose your contribution room if your portfolio drops. Better to stick with more consevervative assets like CDN dividend blue chips.

#15 Don't understand on 03.03.19 at 7:11 pm

How do we ‘lose control ‘ with an balanced etf that re-balances for us such as vgro.to ?

It rebalances 4 x a year , set at 70/30

Thanks

#16 JacqueShellacque on 03.03.19 at 7:25 pm

Is it just me, Garth, or are you starting to come around to the orange one? He won, and he’ll win again, because he’s right about the following follies of the last 3 decades:
1) Immigration – the wide open border serves 2 different types of elites (Dems who want the voters, Reps who want the cheap labor), but no one else. Trump (correctly) identified this as a sort point for the electorate, and something untenable not only for its impact on the labor market, but on its destabilizing influence on Latin America.
2) Free trade – a deeply damaging ideology, based on theories that came around before trains were invented. Treasury Dept bureaucrats may have no problems with mass deindustrialization, but Trump understands what the Chinese, Japanese, and Koreans do – export of industrial manufactures creates wealth. The side effect is to have paid for the armament of China, which looks to be every bit as problematic for Asia as Germany’s bellicosity was at the beginning of the 20th century.
3) NATO to Eastern Europe – pointlessly turning Russia into an enemy (die for Estonia, anyone?) for absolutely no return. Russia (not to mention its Central Asian proxies) necessary to counterbalance China.
4) Goalless Mideast wars – trillions spent for soldiers to sip tea in Afghan huts, while China gets more and more threatening.

#17 JSS on 03.03.19 at 7:36 pm

RRSPs were the rage back around fifteen years ago.
Now it seems, Canadians have no money left over.
Hardly anyone I know puts money in RRSPs.

#18 Brian Ripley on 03.03.19 at 7:40 pm

My Calgary Housing Chart is up with the FEB data
http://www.chpc.biz/calgary-housing.html

Calgary buyers enjoy the highest employment earnings
http://www.chpc.biz/earnings-employment.html

…and on the housing chart they are buying Single Family Detached houses on the dip.

Strata unit prices continue to drop with seasonally slow sales.

#19 Asterix1 on 03.03.19 at 7:55 pm

This plan might work for some living in GTA.

Get out! Dont bother buying or renting at these prices, on top of it, wages are mostly garbage and taxes high.

Try moving to the USA (or Europe), make some good money and save as much as you can!

Come back in 3 years with lots of US$/Euros, get lots of C$ back (our dollar is going to tank hard!). Real Estate will have crashed and you will probably get a great deal.

#20 SimplyPut7 on 03.03.19 at 7:57 pm

Why the big reversal from December? The trade environment improved, and it looks like some kind of deal will be reached between the US and China. Trump stopped attacking the Fed (although he was at it again over the weekend), constantly undermining American central bank monetary policy.

————–

While the underlying fundamentals appear strong for now, don’t you think the US fed pausing their rate hikes had a lot to do with how fast the US and Canadian markets have turned around?

Isn’t it a bit unnerving that the US stock market does seem to know how to survive without an unlimited supply of ultra-low borrowing rates, caused by a current monetary policy that is not in-line with past monetary policies during an expansion phase of the economy prior to the 2008 Financial Crisis?

It’s been a decade, savers have suffered enough.

#21 pay your taxes on 03.03.19 at 8:04 pm

the Dow has added 11.5%. The S&P 500 is ahead 11.8%. And Bay Street has roared – up more than 12%.

What’s the one year increase? I seem to remember a bit of a plunge late last year. You don’t want to come across like a real estate agent . Market timers must have done very well if they bought into the last “dip”.

YTD, as stated. – Garth

#22 millmech on 03.03.19 at 8:11 pm

#7&#12
Is it not mind boggling when people who are supposedly educated choose low paying careers and then whine about their financial lot in life.
There is no more critical thinking anymore, it is clickable thinking, if more people researched their field of expertise and the pay and benefits they would hopefully make better decisions.
I see so many people going to school for four years only to discover that they hate what they are doing and so head back for four more years or go into the workforce without using their skillset.
They have now wasted four years plus the expense to get educated, they will never get that time back. Also if they go into a field of work they do not like they will be very unmotivated and poor performers.
The people who like their work advance rapidly and are compensated well for what they do, you can see them in every job be it trades or business.
Remember your going to be doing your job for four decades you had better like it or you will become a very bitter person.

#23 Ronaldo on 03.03.19 at 8:12 pm

#16 JacqueShellacque on 03.03.19 at 7:25 pm

3) NATO to Eastern Europe – pointlessly turning Russia into an enemy (die for Estonia, anyone?) for absolutely no return. Russia (not to mention its Central Asian proxies) necessary to counterbalance China.
——————————————————————-
Agree totally.

#24 WDL on 03.03.19 at 8:14 pm

I’ll never figure out why you hate gold and silver so much. I have 90% of my money in very good funds that have done well for me. The other 10% I have in gold and silver. It too has done well for me.

#25 Vampire studies on 03.03.19 at 8:19 pm

17 JSS – correct. You don’t know me!

Seriously I put some in this year but only for tax
purposes as advised by my acct and an advisor I hope to work with.

#26 Ronaldo on 03.03.19 at 8:19 pm

#17 JSS on 03.03.19 at 7:36 pm
RRSPs were the rage back around fifteen years ago.
Now it seems, Canadians have no money left over.
Hardly anyone I know puts money in RRSPs.
————————————————————-
RRSP’s and mutual funds were the rage back in the mid 80’s when I was finally at a time when I was making enough money to invest in such things. It worked out well for me as enabled me to retire at the ripe old age of 54. RRSPs can be a very good retirement planning tool if you are in the top tax bracket. 18 years retired and loving it.

#27 NFN_NLN on 03.03.19 at 8:21 pm

#12 crossbordershopper

the canadian structure is wrong, too many immigrants, low wages, high housing costs, high taxes, low access to debt other than consumer related debt.

Easy there, pal. You’ll trigger the liberals with that immigrant talk.

#28 pay your taxes on 03.03.19 at 8:22 pm

Trouble with math: If Canadians aren’t having enough children to replace the current population, and immigration only accounts for 1% per year (replacement rate according to some), how does our population keep growing every year?

Here in Vancouver there are hundreds of new condos popping up every month but where are the people who occupy them coming from? Birth rates in the hinterland aren’t exploding so I’m at a loss to figure out who all of these new condos are supposed to house.

I just had this discussion with a lady who moved here from Canton, China 30 years ago. She said that the development patterns remind her of Hong Kong where the apartments became more numerous and much smaller, yet the prices still rose. It would appear that the answer to high prices isn’t more development.

#29 Vampire Studies on 03.03.19 at 8:30 pm

14 Dave – this too is a concern for me as I am nearing retirement. So just a thought here. Why not set up a base of low volatility funds. Then add some solid short to medium term bond funds that hold their assets to
maturity. But don’t max out – leave some room for buying during the dips like we just experienced. Now with each year, invest in the higher volatility markets –
EM, US small cap etc.

Unfortuneately, the tax benefits of cdn dividends are not enjoyed in a TFSA. Well I guess they are as you don’t pay tax on them! DRIP!

And definitely talk with an advisor to properly assess your own situation and goals.

PS I’m not any kind of advisor. Not a realtor either.

#30 pay your taxes on 03.03.19 at 8:31 pm

YTD, as stated. – Garth

Ok I looked it up. Year over year is -2.29% but the 3 year is 17.67% which is amazing. The real news (which you covered earlier) is how quick the bounce back has been from last year’s lows.

Enough from this corner of the peanut gallery. Happy Sunday night and thanks for the blog.

#31 TRON on 03.03.19 at 8:38 pm

Isn’t 16% over 36 months almost the same as 5% in one year? So returns for 2018 were the same as the 2008.

#32 Nonplused on 03.03.19 at 8:47 pm

Well, at least we know one thing. Trudeau will not be prime minister in 2020 even if he wins in 2019.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K4Vx6kmfutc

Funny reflecting on how much better we thought we Canadians were than the Americans. How could they elect Trump? And they’ve been trying desperately to stick something on Trump for 2 years and there hasn’t been anything there but a totally legal payment to a mistress or two, and unverifiable accusations of racism. But our prime minister really is going to jail for obstruction of justice.

Trump is no clean character. He isn’t a choir boy. He’s no boy scout (or I guess just scout now). I don’t think you’d want to lend him money or have dinner with him. But our prime minister? Oh boy. Trudeau, if the accusations are correct, is a criminal. And even before that he was doing pretty bad, appointing people to top jobs based on sex rather than merit. If that isn’t sexist I don’t know what is.

It’s never a good idea to be too proud of yourself because of how much better you think you are than other people. You probably aren’t better than other people and thinking you are is called narcissism. So far as it looks right now Trump is going to skate through with a few fines and maybe some back taxes owing. Our prime minister is going to jail.

I wish Quebec would have just separated back when we had the chance to get rid of them. Damn you Brian Mulroney! And Preston Manning for good measure! It’s clear we should have let Quebec go, or forced them out. Instead we’ve paid untold billions in transfer payments and they’ve run around the world breaking every law they could find. It’s like we are married to a spend thrift trophy wife who’s having an affair but we are too afraid to divorce her because of what the neighbors might think. But she’s got a good lawyer so we backed away like a dog that just got kicked in the nuts.

Alberta is still paying transfer payments that mostly land in Quebec and we have to borrow the money to do it. I for one would like to see that stop. Sometimes, the shrew won’t learn anything until you man up and divorce her. Whatever the cost.

#33 Vampire Studies on 03.03.19 at 8:50 pm

22 millmech

“Remember your going to be doing your job for four decades you had better like it or you will become a very
bitter person.”

Absolutely agree. The problem is the system fills our young peoples minds with sunshine and lollipops. Hence we get courses offered like this.

https://web.uvic.ca/calendar2019-01/CDs/GMST/454.html

While I am sure it is interesting, I don’t know how many careers are available in this field. And I bet its all nightshift.

#34 Neil on 03.03.19 at 8:54 pm

I’ll stick with Warren Buffet’s advice.

90% S&P ETF- Vanguard is excellent (VFV or VSP if you want to hedge the CAD). 10% bond (VGV or VLB).

Problem is the US dividends are taxed as regular income, unlike in the US

or better yet just buy BRK.B. No dividend, sell when you need money and get capital gains treatment.

America will always outperform in the long run.

#35 ImGonnaBeSick on 03.03.19 at 8:56 pm

#15 Don’t understand on 03.03.19 at 7:11 pm
How do we ‘lose control ‘ with an balanced etf that re-balances for us such as vgro.to ?

It rebalances 4 x a year , set at 70/30

Thanks
________________________________

Jeez… You’re living up to your name… VGRO is 80/20… Take a Saturday and read as much of this blog’s investment advice as possible… You need some help mate if you’re too lazy to even read an ETFs fact sheet…

#36 ImGonnaBeSick on 03.03.19 at 9:03 pm

#20 SimplyPut7 on 03.03.19 at 7:57 pm

It’s been a decade, savers have suffered enough.
______________________

How do you figure? You’re portfolio has likely doubled in that decade… Definitely should have kicked the snot out of inflation.

#37 -=jwk=- on 03.03.19 at 9:14 pm

1) Immigration – USA has the most closed border of any western country, the toughest to get in and the longest requirements to citizenship. One could become a national of Sweden, Canada and Germany before being granted US citizenship. Trump sold it is as problem when it simply isn’t. If every immigrant in USA suddenly dissappeared the US economy would collapse, full stop.

2) Free trade – Trump has no idea how free trade works, or how it has benefited American. He just sows the fear and reaps the rewards (votes)

3) Russia is not your friend. Putin is not your friend. They shot down a dutch airliner while invading Ukraine. Simply declaring russia your new fround BFF doesn’t make it so. They hacked your federal election. Think about that – Russia gets a major say in who the US president is. But that’s cool as long as it is Trump, right?
4) Mideast wars – When Iraq invaded Kuwait, was Desert Storm ‘goalless’? You started them, you need to finish them. You can contain the mess you created over there, or let the mess come to you ala 9/11. Your call.

That said, Trump will still win, but not because he is some political genius. He’s a completely ignorant spoiled rich kid with no knowledge of anything outside his golf courses and manhattan penthouse. He’ll win because he lies, lies, lies like no one in history. He’s changed the game and it will be very hard to beat. Try to think of an opponent who will lie bigger and more often than him. It’s just not going to happen, he’s the King of lies and no one can touch him. I’ll go so far as to say he will get 22nd amendment overturned (or put on hold due to an ’emergency’) and become the first 3 term President since Roosevelt. The Framers of the constitution wanted the President to be elected by congress and serve for life. They voted 6 to 4 against that and went with general election by the public instead. Trump could claim that was a mistake, and fix it by appointing himself President for life….and Russia would help!

#38 NFN_NLN on 03.03.19 at 9:20 pm

Trudeau – stands up for Canadian Prostitution jobs? lol

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SWMjh2phAuY&list=WL&index=79&t=31s

#39 TurnerNation on 03.03.19 at 9:21 pm

This carbon tax bill is Shawn A’s doing. A tax on the poor, single mothers and immigrants. What a guy.
I Really wasn’t joking when I posit that Kanadians will huddle around candles in this energy rich country.
Our elite rulers specialize in rationing things. ( Wait till they get to our foodstuffs.)

https://i.redd.it/35tjbj0510k21.jpg

#40 Capt. Serious on 03.03.19 at 9:21 pm

Respectfully, I think tactical asset allocation is probably a bad idea for most DIY investors. Too many ways to go wrong in execution. Set and re-balance when needed is safer for the vast majority.

#41 Lorne on 03.03.19 at 9:27 pm

the Dow has added 11.5%. The S&P 500 is ahead 11.8%. And Bay Street has roared – up more than 12%.

What’s the one year increase? I seem to remember a bit of a plunge late last year. You don’t want to come across like a real estate agent . Market timers must have done very well if they bought into the last “dip”.
……
YTD, as stated. – Garth
……….
So you ARE using the realtor technique of choosing the stat that looks most impressive for the market….let’s see, shall we give them the “year over year change” or the “month over month change”?. Shall we use “median” or “mean” price? I hate it when realtors do this and am disappointed you have also chosen this route. Yes, the stats are accurate BUT very misleading!

Oh please… the post clearly references the recovery in markets from Q4 of 2018. Facts are facts. Deal with it. – Garth

#42 Entrepreneur on 03.03.19 at 9:34 pm

Will anything get corrected or just ignored as is now until people start screaming and yelling. It seems to me that people in a nation with borders are replaceable& not recognized for their worth for advancements. And nothing really gets corrected for the citizens (is this back and forth Liberals and Conservative over the years).

Citizens should be treated with respect, to grow to their potential, as they are the taxpayers with the nation’s system in place, the foundation.

Talking about screaming in the hallway #6 Fish maybe Ontario should look at streamlining emergency use for “acute emergency care only.”

Dealing with emergency overload should be “direction” for incoming “chronic” patients to allotted specialized clinics (mental health, gerontology, etc.)

Or start a clinic with specific cause and have more nurse practitioners, less overhead cost.

No need to fill “acute emergency care” with “chronic care,” a long-term patient care.

#43 Capt. Serious on 03.03.19 at 9:34 pm

@Dave #14

Why are you realizing a loss on your emerging market equities? The point is to hold an asset which should have a high rate of return over the long term in an account with no tax implications.

#44 akashic record on 03.03.19 at 9:44 pm

#32 Nonplused on 03.03.19 at 8:47 pm

Well, at least we know one thing. Trudeau will not be prime minister in 2020 even if he wins in 2019.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K4Vx6kmfutc

Michelle Rempel’s lowdown on Trudeau’s #HimToo #FakeFeminist #SNC-Lavalin Canada’s Magnistky Act #Obstruction of justice #DeferredProsecutionAgreementBehindClosedDoor #SheExperiencedDifferently

#45 Yanniel on 03.03.19 at 9:47 pm

“You might be tempted to buy a one-size-fits-all balanced ETF, but in doing so you’re surrendering control to an algo. You lose the ability to rebalance in a way that meets your own risk tolerance and performance goals.”

The algo will do passive rebalancing and the transaction costs of those rebalancing trades are covered by a cheap MER. This basically means you can trade for free depending on your broker.

The ETF are fully passive which is great if you are not into timimg markets or into Tactical Asset Allocation.

If your risk tolerance happens to be that of the typical 40/60, 60/40, 80/20 stocks/fixed income split; are not bothered too much by the liquidity of these ETFs (not selling often) and think algos are not like Terminator; you should check them out and draw your own conclusions.

DYI investors would do fine with Dollar cost averaging. Most people don’t know how to do a (

just buying a fixed amount of shares every month of these ETFs is very cheap

. These ETFs have low MER, automatic rebalancing (with rebalwncing transaction costs cover by the low MER),

One size does not fit all, and the mix of assets in such an ETF may be inappropriate for many. Processed food is easy, too. Not always the best choice. By the way, fee-based advisors never charge people to rebalance. – Garth

#46 Yanniel on 03.03.19 at 9:52 pm

Duh, the last 3 sentences in my previous comment were just draft material. Forgot to clean it up before submitting. My bad.

#47 Nick B on 03.03.19 at 9:55 pm

I have to say, I agree with the advice but find the reason for the market increase to entertaining. No one knows why the market increases and that’s ok, no can predict the markets direction and you are no exception. Will the year finish up 12% for the TSE, who knows. It will fun to watch.

#48 Fish on 03.03.19 at 10:03 pm

CBC evening read,

St. Boniface Family Medicine Centre to close in July

Staff at Family Medical Centre will be transferred to other service providers, Winnipeg health authority says

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/family-medical-centre-st-boniface-closing-1.5040532

Also

Government abandons fire-ravaged Gatineau office building

Some 1,800 workers at the Louis St. Laurent building will be permanently relocated
CBC News · Posted: Mar 02, 2019 2:48 PM ET | Last Updated: March 2

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/gatineau-louis-saint-laurent-building-1.5040270

#49 Lorne on 03.03.19 at 10:12 pm

the Dow has added 11.5%. The S&P 500 is ahead 11.8%. And Bay Street has roared – up more than 12%.

What’s the one year increase? I seem to remember a bit of a plunge late last year. You don’t want to come across like a real estate agent . Market timers must have done very well if they bought into the last “dip”.
……
YTD, as stated. – Garth
……….
So you ARE using the realtor technique of choosing the stat that looks most impressive for the market….let’s see, shall we give them the “year over year change” or the “month over month change”?. Shall we use “median” or “mean” price? I hate it when realtors do this and am disappointed you have also chosen this route. Yes, the stats are accurate BUT very misleading!

Oh please… the post clearly references the recovery in markets from Q4 of 2018. Facts are facts. Deal with it. – Garth
……
So, what are the YOY stats?

One-year returns – Dow 8.5%, TSX 7.73%. – Garth

#50 Yanniel on 03.03.19 at 10:22 pm

“One size does not fit all, and the mix of assets in such an ETF may be inappropriate for many. Processed food is easy, too. Not always the best choice.”

I agree. That’s why I said “check them out and draw your own conclusions.” I am not saying this is for everybody; but for many is a good template.

I think they are particularly good for people wanting to start investing and have little to put down. Imagine you have 1k in cash and will contribute 400 bucks a month: you can be balanced and diversified with just one symbol. It is very efficient and simple.

“By the way, fee-based advisors never charge people to rebalance.”

Good to know, but I was simply comparing against a couch potato DYI portfolio. If I take care of my own rebalancing and I just do it once a year; I rather save me a few trade commissions.

#51 Victor V on 03.03.19 at 10:26 pm

Why Trump is Destined for an Historic 2020 Win
by Conrad Black

http://www.conradmblack.com/1452/why-trump-is-destined-for-an-historic-2020-win

#52 Shawn Allen on 03.03.19 at 10:38 pm

Carbon Tax?

#39 TurnerNation on 03.03.19 at 9:21 pm
This carbon tax bill is Shawn A’s doing. A tax on the poor, single mothers and immigrants. What a guy.
I Really wasn’t joking when I posit that Kanadians will huddle around candles in this energy rich country.
Our elite rulers specialize in rationing things. ( Wait till they get to our foodstuffs.)

https://i.redd.it/35tjbj0510k21.jpg

**********************************
Well, the carbon tax provides rebates for low income families.

The link here has a business complaining about a $375 gas charge and $765 in carbon tax AND delivery charges.

Well, look at the bill the gas charges are under $2.00 a GJ. The gas is being almost given away. Try comparing that to Ontario or the maritimes. Even when gas is really cheap there is a flat cost associated with the delivery pipes and the carbon emissions.

I am skeptical the business owner has never seen a higher bill in 40 years. Gas has often been well over $5 per GJ and peaked way over $10 year ago.

The elected governments in Alberta and Ottawa ruled that using carbon imposes a cost on the environment. So, user pay. Many don’t trust the elected government. If so, vote for a different one or better yet, run yourself.

I can assure you that the Alberta carbon tax is a very very minor part of my monthly expenses. And if I should not cover the estimated cost of my carbon emissions, who should?

#53 Shawn Allen on 03.03.19 at 10:43 pm

Correction

Gas has often been well over $5 per GJ and peaked way over $10 year ago.

**** Well, maybe not that often over $5 and I meant to say it peaked over $10 years ago. I remember as it fell back through $7 the industry cried how low it was. They had no idea how low it would go and stay.

#54 akashic record on 03.03.19 at 10:50 pm

#52 Shawn Allen on 03.03.19 at 10:38 pm

Carbon Tax?

#39 TurnerNation on 03.03.19 at 9:21 pm
This carbon tax bill is Shawn A’s doing. A tax on the poor, single mothers and immigrants. What a guy.
I Really wasn’t joking when I posit that Kanadians will huddle around candles in this energy rich country.
Our elite rulers specialize in rationing things. ( Wait till they get to our foodstuffs.)

https://i.redd.it/35tjbj0510k21.jpg

**********************************
Well, the carbon tax provides rebates for low income families.

Wealth redistribution vehicle.

#55 rock da cashbar on 03.03.19 at 11:07 pm

Okay, kids, time for a portfolio update. Yes, 2019 has been terrific for investors. So far this year (and it just turned March) the Dow has added 11.5%. The S&P 500 is ahead 11.8%. And Bay Street has roared – up more than 12%. If markets just go sideways for the next nine months it will still be juicy.”

Garth you always do this…starting your market returns from the low, as a hook. The fact is most investors don’t buy at that low point. Why not show the return from just before December’s crash. Cash and gold are the only 2 safe bets right now.

#56 acdel on 03.03.19 at 11:07 pm

Hell with this, I am voting for Amy Frey, my kind of lady!

Yep Garth, never touched my portfolio and it is right back up there, no complaints on my part!

#57 NFN_NLN on 03.03.19 at 11:40 pm

#52 Shawn Allen

“I am skeptical the business owner has never seen a higher bill in 40 years.”

***********

The post says 40 *months*, not years.

#58 Ray on 03.03.19 at 11:51 pm

I just went through this U-Tube where Calgary MP Michelle Rempel rips T2 a new one over the SNC-Lavalin Scandal. She was truthful, committed and correct. It take about 10 minutes but at the end I was cheering “Good for You, Good for Canada”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K4Vx6kmfutc

#59 Nonplused on 03.04.19 at 12:36 am

#54 akashic record

“Wealth redistribution vehicle”

When Notely first introduced the carbon tax to Alberta she took about $2500 from me (now up to about $3500/y) and gave my daughter a check for $300. This is in the same damn family! This is how wealth redistribution works. I’ll give my daughter $300 anytime she legitimately needs it, I don’t need Notely taking another $3200/y to make it happen! Also I notice my daughter hasn’t got anymore $300 checks from Notely even though she is still in school and not making much.

The whole thing is a scam and it doesn’t address global warming even if you think that’s a thing. It’s just another consumption tax. All they would have had to do was raise the HST to 20% and it would be the same damn thing. Plus they wouldn’t have needed a whole another branch of government to administer it if they’d just raised the HST. That infrastructure was already in place.

It’s the same as the $15 minimum wage scam. Sure, it’s going to help those minimum wage earners that don’t get laid off a bit. But the main effect is that the amount of taxes a minimum wage earner pays is going to go through the roof. And the law is completely unnecessary. All you have to do to raise wages is reduce immigration. Supply and demand will do the rest. You can’t increase supply and also mandate increased prices. It just doesn’t work.

Oh well at least Trudeau and Notely aren’t AOC, although they don’t seem a whole lot smarter. I think AOC is going to win for Trump in 2020. If her record in the first 2 months is any indication of what she will do to the Democrat party in the next 2 years they may as well concede now. Smart play by Trump. Give them enough rope to hang themselves. She is such a wealth of utter idiocy there can be no doubt that as long as she remains the face of the Democratic party Trump is going to gain supporters by the day. Even Patrick Moore (former Greenpeace guy) called her a “Pompous little twit”.

#60 Nonplused on 03.04.19 at 1:07 am

The whole thing about the global warming debate is not whether or not it’s happening, very few people think it isn’t. And it’s not even how bad it will be, that’s kind of out of our control. The real question should be “what can we do about it?”

As I illustrated here yesterday:

Wind won’t work.

Solar won’t work.

Hydro won’t work.

A combination of wind, solar, and hydro won’t work.

Taxes won’t work.

The only thing we know of that might work if we can make it safe is Gen IV nuclear. Until then, we are stuck with fossil fuels.

People seem to be under the deluded idea that the reason we are burning fossil fuels is because evil corporations are controlling the dialog and forcing us all to ruin the planet whilst a variety of better fuel sources are available. This just simply isn’t true. It is true that big corporations have taken over oil and coal and gas, but they didn’t make us dependent on them, we already were. And who are the biggest players in the solar and wind experiments? Well well well it’s big corporations again, many of the oil and coal consumers, so they’ve already got that cornered if that’s the way things go. Which it won’t because those energy sources don’t scale. But hey when has BP ever turned down a government subsidy.

I worked for some months for a US power producer in their brand new office. They were into solar and wind in a big way, they had a whole division to take advantage of all the subsidies. The whole roof was solar panels. All of the car shades were solar panels. They had electric car chargers and the CEO drove a Tesla. They had all LED lighting that automatically dimmed when your window had sunlight. But they also had a big screen in the lobby which showed energy consumption and source in a kind of fancy pie graph. Even on the brightest day I never saw the solar take up much more than 50% of the building’s load. The rest came from the grid. On cloudy days or at night the solar could account for 10-0% of the load.

We aren’t going to be able to have a good conversation about the future of energy until most people realize that solar, wind and hydro just won’t do it. They don’t scale. (That means they can’t be built large enough to address the design requirements). We need safe nuclear, and we need it before we run out of fossil fuels.

An interesting side note about the US power producer’s parking lot and the CEO’s Tesla. Of course the charging stations were “free” and all located in prime parking locations. Other than the Tesla they were all empty, the employees choosing to drive gas cars. Except for one cheeky bastard whom I never met who bought a Nisan Leaf so he could park at the door. Oh well it was electric, so also mostly coal powered and they were in the business of generating a lot of power from coal, whilst putting solar panels in the parking lot.

#61 David Driven on 03.04.19 at 4:54 am

We had billions spent on climate change propaganda spent by the leftist dupes and carpet baggers by Obama and lickspittle EU wankers and pissants like Trudeau. But now that the Head Boogy Man – Obama is just stale piss in a leaky bucket, the truth is coming out. You been scammed.

https://business.financialpost.com/opinion/lawrence-solomon-trumps-new-climate-committee-could-welcome-the-worlds-smartest-global-warming-skeptics

We’ve seen what a phony and sex assault denier our pM is. We now understand he was propped up by Americans and EU leftists who hated Harper for defending Canada against the invasion of people who hate us when he told the UN to stuff itself and it’s plans to destroy Canada.

#62 earthboundmisfit on 03.04.19 at 5:31 am

Why is the Cdn. and U.S. exposure all large cap?

#63 NoName on 03.04.19 at 7:41 am

#61 Nonplused on 03.04.19 at 1:07 am

A combination of wind, solar, and hydro won’t work.

Funny thing you mention that, Down in balkans eu have some grants and rebates to newly build hydro power plants, so people jumped on a wagon and start building dams all over the place.

Montenegro is best and worst example for now, but bosnia is not to far behind probably will over take “djetice” in no time lot less activism against micro power plants comparing it to Montenegro.

I have friend that in mntgro that i went in grade and portion of high school, she is a big activist against everything stupid and outsource dog lover. She does outstanding job and can code to, imagine that.

I remember my societies web page all in html by hand no editor in mid 90s, so i was so proud of my self and did sowed her, so few weeks later she did one all in java just to show of.

What is mind boggling is that power producing units small as 50kva are regularly approved…

Now that i am steel on hydro power topc here is interesting read. MUST READ or you no read you will stay very uninformed.

https://bankwatch.org/project/destructive-hydropower-in-southeast-europe

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2016/nov/14/hydroelectric-dams-emit-billion-tonnes-greenhouse-gas-methane-study-climate-change

https://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2016/nov/06/hydropower-hydroelectricity-methane-clean-climate-change-study

#64 Penny Henny on 03.04.19 at 7:46 am

Lots in here to keep the boomers and millennials squabbling for days!

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2019/03/the-alternative-was-worse/

“Ten years ago, faced with the real prospect of another Great Depression, Mr. Bernanke launched QE to avoid mass default. Implicitly, he was underwriting the wealth of his own generation, the baby boomers. ”

“And it’s time for young people to stop blaming others for their problems.”

#65 not 1st on 03.04.19 at 8:15 am

#61 Nonplused on 03.04.19 at 1:07 am
—–
Non, I like your posts but your are missing the real narrative here. Climate change is just a front for socialism. Its not an environment plan. We can thank AOC for clearing that up for us all with her New Green Deal BS.

#66 Penny Henny on 03.04.19 at 8:25 am

Excuse me for being way off topic Garth but, but, but…

Story of a woman who was on Basic Income program in Ontario who will be forced to go back to food banks (in her $900 Canada Goose parka, see picture)

https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2019/03/04/basic-income-project-improved-lives-but-now-its-back-to-the-food-bank.html

Was it donated? – Garth

#67 Penny Henny on 03.04.19 at 8:48 am

#67 Penny Henny on 03.04.19 at 8:25 am
Excuse me for being way off topic Garth but, but, but…

Story of a woman who was on Basic Income program in Ontario who will be forced to go back to food banks (in her $900 Canada Goose parka, see picture)

https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2019/03/04/basic-income-project-improved-lives-but-now-its-back-to-the-food-bank.html

Was it donated? – Garth
//////////////////

Donated, gift, had it from when she was working, whatever. Bad optics.

Only to those rushing to judge others. – Garth

#68 David Driven on 03.04.19 at 9:08 am

I bought the dip in Booking Holdings BKNG (USD) on a pull back after conservative guidance. The 11% correction was a classic good by retail investors who can’t read a balance sheet. To me the $200 dip was free money. I don’t usually report my trades but since no one here is buying $USD 2000.00 stocks I figure it’s a good lesson on stock picking being how to make serious money by applying solid analytics vs ETF shotgunning. I’ll see ya’ll in a month or three. I won’t leave my target price but sufficed to say the upside seems obvious to a macro economist.

Meanwhile I believe there will be a TSX correction beginning in May (until the election in November at least) when Canada officially reports the ongoing Trudeau created recession. This will be public information within three months resulting in a weak $C . Expect a massive propaganda campaign to distract the public. This will be a period of US market strength and solid presence there will nessesitate US equity exposure and for planning an increased $C cash position to buy an expected run when Trudeau loses the election. Energy, pipelines and dividend paying consumer durables and utilities can be bought on the lows during the recession

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/the-r-word-will-be-on-minds-economists-react-to-canada-s-disappointing-gdp-1.1222351

Markets are moved by earnings, not elections. – Garth

#69 Tater on 03.04.19 at 9:38 am

#67 Penny Henny on 03.04.19 at 8:25 am
Excuse me for being way off topic Garth but, but, but…

Story of a woman who was on Basic Income program in Ontario who will be forced to go back to food banks (in her $900 Canada Goose parka, see picture)

https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2019/03/04/basic-income-project-improved-lives-but-now-its-back-to-the-food-bank.html

Was it donated? – Garth

—————————————————————
I gave a homeless guy my old Canada Goose, does that suddenly make him not homeless?

#70 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.04.19 at 9:41 am

@#61 nonplused
” On cloudy days or at night the solar could account for 10-0% of the load.”
+++++

WTF? Solar doesnt work at NIGHT!?!?!?!?!

#71 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.04.19 at 9:46 am

@#57 Ive finally figured it out
““Because I really, really, really, REALLY want a pardon.”

*******
Your infatuation on all things “Lord Black” is bordering on obsessive.
Or is it the fact that he’s a multi millionaire and you’re not?

#72 Shawn Allen on 03.04.19 at 10:24 am

Record (well 40 months) high gas bill with Carbonn tax

#58 NFN_NLN on 03.03.19 at 11:40 pm corrected me.
#52 Shawn Allen

“I am skeptical the business owner has never seen a higher bill in 40 years.”

***********

The post says 40 *months*, not years.

********************************

Okay, thank you. So we have this business owner complaining about the highest gas bill in the 40 months since he owned this business. Blaming the carbon tax.

Laugh out loud, he has NO idea what kind of gas bills await him if gas goes back to something closer to $6 or $8 per GJ. That by the way could happen when the west coast LNG plants get operational.

I have been in Alberta for 30 years, believe me $2.00 gas is not to be counted on. But admittedly gas has almost always been very cheap in Alberta. It’s nothing like the cost of heating with electricity in Ontario or fuel oil in the Maritimes. Many Albertan’s have no idea how lucky they have it.

#73 Tater on 03.04.19 at 10:50 am

#73 Figure it Out on 03.04.19 at 9:49 am
“I gave a homeless guy my old Canada Goose, does that suddenly make him not homeless?”

Generous benefactor -> Homeless guy -> Real estate agent

https://twitter.com/CondoChris/status/1050600666895278080
—————————————————————
Man, times must be tough to be buying clothes off a homeless guy.

#74 dharma bum on 03.04.19 at 11:14 am

Like Garth says: “Set it and forget it!”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aQnrWtyTtSM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lU-xdmVMrrc

#75 Canada Goose on 03.04.19 at 11:25 am

One week years ago took someone to the Goodwill Store so he could buy some clothes on the cheap. It appeared to me that when someone passed away they donated new and slightly used clothing to Goodwill. I saw the best of everything selling for a few dollars, and was amazed by it all. Even designer dresses were selling for $20.00 that looked new. He walked out of there with $500 of clothing for next to nothing. The lady with the Canada Goose coat may have bought it there.

#76 IHCTD9 on 03.04.19 at 11:29 am

#71 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.04.19 at 9:41 am
@#61 nonplused
” On cloudy days or at night the solar could account for 10-0% of the load.”
+++++

WTF? Solar doesnt work at NIGHT!?!?!?!?!
____

I read an article a while back that dealt with concentrated solar. Apparently you can get about 25% of rated wattage by taking 10-20 big mirrors and reflecting the moon’s light from these onto a single solar panel. During a full moon. Near the equator. On a crystal clear night. Preferably no mosquito (shadows knock the output down).

#77 n1tro on 03.04.19 at 11:29 am

Canada Goose basic income lady article for people without paid Star subscription

https://www.thespec.com/news-story/9203111-basic-income-project-improved-lives-but-now-it-s-back-to-the-food-bank-/

#78 NoName on 03.04.19 at 11:40 am

Addendum to my previous post, definitely watch. 6m30s long. Funy when he says peski beavers…

https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x2jfjlu

#79 ImGonnaBeSick on 03.04.19 at 11:51 am

#9 Josh on 03.03.19 at 6:29 pm
Garth, what medium to you use for the cash allocation? GICs, Money Market etf, Fundserv HISA…
____________________
Josh – FWIW, I’ve been keeping my “cash” in ZST.

#80 Penny Henny on 03.04.19 at 12:00 pm

#70 Tater on 03.04.19 at 9:38 am
#67 Penny Henny on 03.04.19 at 8:25 am
Excuse me for being way off topic Garth but, but, but…

Story of a woman who was on Basic Income program in Ontario who will be forced to go back to food banks (in her $900 Canada Goose parka, see picture)

https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2019/03/04/basic-income-project-improved-lives-but-now-its-back-to-the-food-bank.html

Was it donated? – Garth

—————————————————————
I gave a homeless guy my old Canada Goose, does that suddenly make him not homeless?
___________________________
Obviously you are a more generous person than I.
However…If someone wearing a Canada Goose parka approached me on the street asking for spare change I know what my answer would be.

#81 Deplorable Dude on 03.04.19 at 12:14 pm

If you can stomach the highs and lows…some stonking bargins on the TSX for dividend growth stocks.

Think long term…if you’d brought Bank of NovaScotia 19 years ago…your current yield on cost is 100%…that’s right…current yield is what a share cost 19 years ago.

Solar power……waste of time…..the reason it’s cold is because there is no solar energy. Wind power….bird killers….and useless in very cold weather…typically no wind. Nuclear is the only long term option.

That nasty CO2 trace gas isn’t doing a good job of holding in heat….spring should have started by now for many parts of Nrth America…still frozen.

#82 NoName on 03.04.19 at 1:03 pm

#77 dharma bum on 03.04.19 at 11:14 am
Like Garth says: “Set it and forget it!”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aQnrWtyTtSM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lU-xdmVMrrc

I still have original baby george forman set it and forget it, best thing we bought ever, its a same that someone sue him over some stupid patent and product was pulled out from market.

I remember buying it, i bought two at 50% off in Zellers kept one and gave second to my friend. After 13yrs stell works…

https://youtu.be/WmCtZEthIE4

#83 FlyingFoxtrot on 03.04.19 at 1:04 pm

Would you put the preferred shares in the Canadian or US Market? Or Both?

#84 NoName on 03.04.19 at 1:07 pm

Thise europian bastiges

Europe’s renewable energy policy is built on burning American trees
Biomass energy is inadvertently making the climate crisis worse.

In the lowland forests of the American southeast, loblolly pines and cypress trees are grabbing carbon dioxide from the air right now. Using power from the sun, they release the oxygen and bind the carbon, building trunks, barks, and leaves.

But much of that carbon won’t stay there. As it turns out, millions of tons of wood from these forests each year are being shipped across the Atlantic, and burned in power plants in countries like the UK and the Netherlands, in the name of slowing climate change.

https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/science-and-health/2019/3/4/18216045/renewable-energy-wood-pellets-biomass

#85 Remembrancer on 03.04.19 at 1:42 pm

#79 IHCTD9 on 03.04.19 at 11:29 am
#71 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.04.19 at 9:41 am
@#61 nonplused
” On cloudy days or at night the solar could account for 10-0% of the load.”
+++++

WTF? Solar doesnt work at NIGHT!?!?!?!?!
____

R-E-C-H-A-R-G-E-A-B-L-E… B-A-T-T-E-R-I-E-S…

#86 Smartalox on 03.04.19 at 2:20 pm

@PennyHenny #67:

If you look at the link to the Hamilton Spectator provided by N1tro #80, the caption for the photo states that the coat was gifted to her, because it had a broken zipper.

Gifted coat = free!
Cost to fix a broken zipper: $30 (max)

#87 Solar Techology on 03.04.19 at 2:30 pm

It has improved greatly over the years with the latest using solar tubes. You can do an energy transfer heating the entire home, and they will work well on a cloudy day. The tubes come in various sizes too.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UhEDcvATHG0

#88 Shawn Allen on 03.04.19 at 2:31 pm

Does he think corporations vote?

“Jason Kenney promises to cut corporate tax to 8% over four years”

Lower taxes are great. Except that Alberta government is running a large deficit. Who make up the lost revenue? Will new and existing corporations expand to make 12/8 = 50% more profit and make up the difference?

The small business corporate tax collected by Alberta is all of 2%. And still small businesses would no doubt like to pay less. (And I own a small business and pay the 2%).

Someone has got to cover the legitimate cost of government.

Kenney just handed a major gift tho the NDP as they will say he favors business over the working people.

I would not write off the chance that Notly wins again. We shall see.

#89 Smartalox on 03.04.19 at 2:46 pm

REBGV Stats for February are published today.

The big reveal is on the last page of the stats package, how the Average Detached Sales price (blue line) dramatically broke through it’s previous floor. Now sitting at $1.443M, more than 20% below the previous maximum value ($1.831M from May 2017). It joins the trend of the attached and apartment markets, that started downward some months ago.

Median prices for detached homes are down more than 20% from a year ago in East Van (-21%), Van West (-21%) and West Vancouver (-28%). All areas appear down: North Van (-16%), Burnaby (-13%), Coquitlam (-11%) , but with sales down 45% year over year, some areas simply aren’t reporting enough sales to provide reliable data.

The numbers of detached listings are down after last month’s surges, but the total listings for the year are still very low compared to this time last year, this means that fewer listings are driving the recovery in sales to listings ratio, not any increase in the numbers of sales.

Still, sales to listings ratios are indicating that at best, only 1 in 3 listed properties are selling. In some areas, the numbers are 1 in 4, or even 1 in 5.

It’ll be interesting to see if the declines in price will continue through the next couple of months – the heart of the spring market. Prices have been in decline for more than 6 months at this point, but sales in some areas have just been too low to register statistically significant medians yet.

#90 jess on 03.04.19 at 3:11 pm

5 AK on 03.03.19 at 6:14 pm

Is a RICO case is building in the southern district?
https://www.justsecurity.org/62120/ruminations-rico-asset-forfeiture-trump-business-empire/

=====
market moving “digital gangsters”

The committee also released new internal Facebook documents obtained from the company’s legal dispute with the company Six4Three, which it said “highlights the link between friends’ data and the financial value of the developers’ relationship with Facebook”….

The Committee has published more evidence ( https://www.parliament.uk/documents/commons-committees/culture-media-and-sport/Further-selected-documents-ordered-from-Six4Three-Feb19.pdf (PDF PDF 9.09 MB)Opens in a new window – see footnotes) from the Six4Three documents today that demonstrate Facebook’s aggressive action against certain apps and highlights the link between Friends’ data and the financial value of the developers’ relationship with Facebook.

“social media companies cannot hide behind the claim of being merely a ‘platform’ and maintain that they have no responsibility themselves in regulating the content of their sites”.
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/feb/18/facebook-fake-news-investigation-report-regulation-privacy-law-dcms

#91 Shawn Allen on 03.04.19 at 3:13 pm

Jason Kenny has some good ideas

I do however like Kenney’s idea to sue some of the anti-energy protest groups and fight back against misinformation. NDP should borrow that idea right now.

#92 IHCTD9 on 03.04.19 at 3:20 pm

#78 Canada Goose on 03.04.19 at 11:25 am

One week years ago took someone to the Goodwill Store so he could buy some clothes on the cheap. It appeared to me that when someone passed away they donated new and slightly used clothing to Goodwill. I saw the best of everything selling for a few dollars, and was amazed by it all. Even designer dresses were selling for $20.00 that looked new. He walked out of there with $500 of clothing for next to nothing. The lady with the Canada Goose coat may have bought it there.
______

Yep, I’ve done some volunteering in this area. On a Saturday morning the place is PACKED with “flippers” looking for deals they can resell. Lots of folks looking for that rare collectible that slipped by the staff and is on the floor for 2.00.

I’d guess maybe 25% of the crowd on a typical Saturday morning were there looking to make money, not save it. Same folks every week.

Can’t blame them though – the stuff that comes in has not been given any thought towards value. We had what must have been bloody near an entire set of old hardcover hardy boys books in a nice case. Several complete sets of Harry Potter books like new. Toys from the 60’s-80’s. A torque wrench from like the ’50’s 0-600 ft-lbs, 4 feet long, perfect shape – better than what you can even buy brand new these days. A bunch of very legit looking and beautiful Native paintings (I put it all out and it was gone in under a minute).

Jeans galore – almost all like new. It really blew my mind the first time I was in there.

#93 IHCTD9 on 03.04.19 at 3:22 pm

#94 IHCTD9 on 03.04.19 at 3:20 pm

I’d guess maybe 25% of the crowd on a typical Saturday morning were there looking to make money…
____

Make that 75%.

#94 n1tro on 03.04.19 at 3:23 pm

#90 Smartalox on 03.04.19 at 2:20 pm
@PennyHenny #67:

If you look at the link to the Hamilton Spectator provided by N1tro #80, the caption for the photo states that the coat was gifted to her, because it had a broken zipper.

Gifted coat = free!
Cost to fix a broken zipper: $30 (max)
———————–
Broken zipper seems like a manufacturing defect. Covered under Canada Goose’s life time warranty. :)

https://www.canadagoose.com/ca/en/warranty/warranty.html

#95 Solar is fine. on 03.04.19 at 3:25 pm

#89 Remembrancer

R-E-C-H-A-R-G-E-A-B-L-E… B-A-T-T-E-R-I-E-S…

Yep!

And if you need more capacity: use excess solar during day to pump the water level of a lake higher.
During nighttime, drain the lake with hydro energy.

Just because wind and solar are intermittent, doesn’t mean it can’t be used effectively.

On top of this, you could make consumers shift their usage too. Just offer dirt cheap rates when there is a lot of wind and sun.
E.g. aluminum smelters will be more than happy to time their processes with periods of lowest electricity rates.

#96 Barb on 03.04.19 at 3:26 pm

#60 Nonplused on 03.04.19 at 12:36 am

Even Patrick Moore (former Greenpeace guy) called her a “Pompous little twit”.

———————————————
I’d like to learn what Moore thinks of Horgan.

#97 jess on 03.04.19 at 3:28 pm

Further information

The inquiry into Disinformation and ‘fake news’ was announced in September 2017. The Committee held 23 oral evidence sessions, including one in Washington, received more than 170 written submissions, and heard evidence from 73 individuals.

The Interim Report into Disinformation and ‘fake news’ was published in July 2018.

Representatives from eight countries were invited to join the DCMS Committee to create an ‘International Grand Committee’, the first of its kind since 1933, to create a united global front in tackling the spread of disinformation. The inaugural session was held in November 2018.

https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/international-grand-committee-that-ripped-into-facebooks-zuckerberg-could-be-headed-to-canada

#98 Dave Hyde on 03.04.19 at 3:47 pm

Thanks Garth. Can’t tell you how useful these weightings are. I developed a simple google sheet with these percentage targets on it, and it now allows me to tune in every so often to re-balance, and it has worked really well.

#99 Smoking Man on 03.04.19 at 3:48 pm

Cabinet ministers resigning , dont think T2 will make it to the end of March. Big revolt especially from woman MPs.

They final see through him…

#100 NoName on 03.04.19 at 3:53 pm

#99 Solar is fine. on 03.04.19 at 3:25 pm
#89 Remembrancer

R-E-C-H-A-R-G-E-A-B-L-E… B-A-T-T-E-R-I-E-S…

Yep!

And if you need more capacity: use excess solar during day to pump the water level of a lake higher.
During nighttime, drain the lake with hydro energy.

Just because wind and solar are intermittent, doesn’t mean it can’t be used effectively.

On top of this, you could make consumers shift their usage too. Just offer dirt cheap rates when there is a lot of wind and sun.
E.g. aluminum smelters will be more than happy to time their processes with periods of lowest electricity rates.

Isnt that a case now, many places i worked processes that consume lots of energy are generally scheduled to run at night, if scheduling and demand alows it. Donyour self a favor tonight at 3am take a walk around where you live and tell us you observations. Only thing left is to force nolife families like mine to wake up at that hour to do their laundry. Some time ago i posted that i did reduced my energy (electric ity) consumption for close to 35% if not more, and my hydro bill over same time went up for similar percentage amout. Households are at the point of diminishing returns when it comes to savings on energy, yes you can save here and there but brakeeven/payout is in years maybe in decades.

Next tome get out of the box and think about problem.

On a roof about my head is 5 Million BTU AMU, and its not just one for hope building few spred acros roof.

With carbon tax plant in non-heating/snow-removing country looks like no brainer. But pay no attention to me, talk to smater people than me and see what they will tell you.

#101 JB on 03.04.19 at 4:08 pm

Oh how the mighty have fallen!
Treasury Board President Jane Philpott has resigned from Prime Minister Justin Trudeau‘s cabinet over his handling of the SNC-Lavalin affair.

#102 Flippers on 03.04.19 at 4:19 pm

#96 IHCTD9 – I did my fair share by buying in balk at hardware stores that went bankrupt for 10 cents on the dollar. Then went to a flee market with the stuff to flip it all out for cash. Of course kept accurate records to declare my profits for income tax reporting.

#103 Shawn Allen on 03.04.19 at 4:20 pm

Philpott resigns from cabinet. Liberals imploding? How entertaining!

#104 Shawn Allen on 03.04.19 at 4:30 pm

Gerald Butts coming to talk on Wednesday. There is zero chance he will be as credible as JWR. So, he is basically about to dig the liberal hole a little deeper.

#105 WUL on 03.04.19 at 4:31 pm

#105 JB on 03.04.19 at 4:08 pm
Oh how the mighty have fallen!
Treasury Board President Jane Philpott has resigned from Prime Minister Justin Trudeau‘s cabinet…

*****

Yes, but she needed 5 days post JWR testimony to poll her constituents before she could decide what her ethical position should be. Just like Sheila Copps did years ago.

Never confuse a politicians ethics with their calculations on re-election prospects.

#106 jess on 03.04.19 at 4:33 pm

81 people

https://judiciary.house.gov/story-type/letter/house-judiciary-committee-document-requests-3419

========

From Jane Philpott letter of resignation:

shouldn’t she wait until

…”In Canada, the constitutional convention of Cabinet solidarity means, among other things, that ministers are expected to defend all Cabinet decisions. A minister must always be prepared to defend other ministers publicly, and must speak in support of the government and its policies. Given this convention and the current circumstances, it is untenable for me to continue to serve as a Cabinet minister.”

https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2019/03/04/Five-Facts-SNC-Lavalin-Affair/

=

#107 jess on 03.04.19 at 4:52 pm

underground banks

February 11, 2019

RCMP arrest 17 in alleged international money laundering scheme

The RCMP, working with the Canada Revenue Agency, began the probe dubbed “Collector” in 2016 and wrapped it up last spring before launching raids Monday at around 6 a.m. More than 300 RCMP officers in Ontario and Quebec took part in Monday’s operation, aided by officers from the Montreal, Laval and Toronto police forces.
https://globalnews.ca/news/4947589/rcmp-arrests-money-laundering-scheme/

===========
2016
But the RCMP believed he was just one suspect in a very large group of underground bankers, active in Toronto and Montreal especially, with links to real-estate money laundering. And they were believed to be connected to the upper echelons of Middle East organized crime and terrorism financing, according to a senior former DEA investigator interviewed by Global News.”

Since charges were laid in 2017, however, Mehdizadeh has yet to appear in court, and according to colleagues, he has left Canada for his native Iran.

https://globalnews.ca/news/4949475/toronto-man-arrested-1m-cash-international-money-launderer-fled-canada/?utm_source=Article&utm_medium=EditorsPick&utm_campaign=2015

#108 EspressoPi on 03.04.19 at 7:18 pm

Daily reader, infrequent poster. Thank you very much Garth for sharing this updated asset allocation model with us.

#109 Social Democracy on 03.04.19 at 8:51 pm

To Expat, Not1st, and Capitalist

Wow!
You all literally missed my point, and proved it at the same time :) Glorious!
I rest my case.

#110 LYING TRUDEAU on 03.04.19 at 10:30 pm

YUP…..All those liberals turnwd into LIARs

Someone got it right!!!

#111 David Driven on 03.05.19 at 6:50 am

#69…Garth, retsil markets are moved by perception more often than earnings…..which as I point out with my purchase of Booking Holdings, a pro play.

Ask anyone who bought the explosive Trump rally if they laboured over earnings opposed to elation that the moron Obama was not going to be a drag on the markets. Perception went first, earnings came second.

#112 Rich Young on 03.05.19 at 9:19 am

One simple word describes our situation… STAGFLATION … and market up, market down, it is going to get real ugly on the street.

#113 Alex on 03.05.19 at 11:27 pm

Is the rec. for 5% REIT for Canadian REIT or any REIT? I have mine in Global REIT but the above is in the same sentence as Canadian equity. Any help is appreciated. Tx