A national disgrace

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RYAN By Guest Blogger Ryan Lewenza

Last week we saw yet another foreign oil and gas company throw in the towel on Canada with US-based Devon Energy announcing that they are auctioning off their Alberta oil sands project. This is just one more foreign energy company to scream uncle and close up shop here in Canada. As captured below this list is long and it includes oil giants like Royal Dutch, ConocoPhillips, and Marathon to name just a few that have grown exasperated with our terrible pipeline policies, our broken regulatory system and our all-talk-no-action governments.

In total we’ve seen foreign oil companies pull out over $46 billion from our energy sector over the last few years. Why is this happening, when will our leaders realize their own culpability in this pathetic state of affairs and when will the government change course and look to fix this broken system? This week I don’t pull any punches on a topic that I think is critically important for our country.

Foreign Sales of Canadian Oil Assets

Source: CBC, BNN, Oilprice.com * based on mid-point of estimated value

Let’s start first with the big picture. Global oil consumption has grown by nearly 70% (1.4% annually) since 1980 and last year hit a new all-time record high of 100 million barrels/day (b/d). Even with Tesla selling 500,000 cars per year and improving fuel efficiency, this trend of rising global oil consumption is unlikely to end any time soon.

The top five oil producing counties are the US at 15.6 mln b/d, Saudi Arabia at 12.1 mln, Russia at 11.2 mln, Canada at 4.9 mln and China at 4.8 mln.

While Canada is fourth in oil production (pretty darn good for a country of 36 mln people), we’re third in the world with proven oil reserves at 10% of total world reserves, behind Venezuela at 18% and Saudi Arabia at 16%.

Global oil demand is unlikely to slow and there are few countries that can quickly ramp up production to meet this rising demand. Essentially, oil has to come from somewhere to meet this demand, so given that we have bunch of it, why shouldn’t we be the ones to benefit and profit from this incredible asset?

Looking at Canada, our oil production has increased by over 200% since 1980 from 1.5 mln b/d to 4.9 mln b/d (this includes oil and other petroleum liquids). Now this is where it gets silly. Over this period there have been only two major new pipelines built – TransCanada’s Keystone pipeline and Enbridge’s Line 67. Sure there have been some smaller ones or extensions put in, but we have not built a major new pipeline in years. Heck, the existing Trans Mountain pipeline was completed back in 1953!

So, as world demand for oil continues unabated, and Canada’s production continues to rise, where are the much needed new pipelines to move this stuff, especially to countries other than the US, where 99% of our oil exports go?

I believe the combination of our terrible pipeline policies, our outdated regulatory approval process, our overly stringent regulatory environment, and the Fed’s carbon tax policies have all coalesced to provide a perfect storm to our energy sector. You don’t have to take my word for it, just listen to the foreign energy companies that are leaving en masse.

Below is a chart showing that foreign investment in Canada has declined materially since 2015 when it hit $85 billion to just $38 billion in 2018. This marked the lowest foreign investment since 2010 and is in large part due to those huge energy divestments from foreign companies listed above.

Foreign Investment on the Decline

Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments

Another important reason for the exodus of foreign energy investment is the massive price discount of our oil to global benchmarks like WTI. Below is a great chart that calculates just how much this discount has cost us. It’s complicated so it needs some explaining. First I calculated the monthly difference in our oil price (WCS) to US oil prices (WTI). This has averaged $18 per barrel since 2008. Now our oil has a higher sulfur content making it more expensive to refine. Based on this, our Raymond James energy analyst estimates that our oil price should trade at a discount of $8 per barrel versus the average discount of $18 since 2008 and $12 currently.

Subtracting this from the monthly discount and multiplying it by the amount of oil that trades at WCS prices, I calculate a cumulative cost since 2008 of $54 billion dollars!

That’s the amount that we just gave away due to our dysfunctional system and our inability to build a new pipeline to address this completely unnecessary discount.

Cumulative Revenue Loss Due to Price Discount

Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments

To be clear, I am not some “drill baby drill” person. I believe in global warming and that we need to try to minimize the environmental impact of our oil production and consumption. And this is one of the reasons why I believe in adding new pipeline capacity because through this we will be able to sell more oil at higher prices, which will lead to higher revenues and taxes. This tax revenue can then be used to invest in renewables like wind, solar and hydropower.

I believe strongly that technology will play an important role in minimizing carbon emissions and combating climate change, but we need the money to invest in these burgeoning areas. The money can come from smart oil & gas exploration, which includes having sufficient pipeline capacity.

In my opinion, Canada is squandering one of the greatest assets in the world due to inept policies, feckless leadership and a complete lack of long-term vision. The world is responding with foreign company after company heading to the exits. When will we wake up and fix this clearly broken system?

Ryan Lewenza, CFA, CMT is a Partner and Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments, and a Senior Vice President, Private Client Group, of Raymond James Ltd.

 

158 comments ↓

#1 Joe Schmoe on 03.02.19 at 3:39 pm

Clearly, our government is focused on tourism industry supported by access to cannabis and prostitution.

https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/snc-lavalin-paid-for-gadhafi-sons-debauchery-while-he-was-in-canada-report

Quality investment in jobs….

#2 Derek R on 03.02.19 at 3:43 pm

Depressing. But true.

#3 Yukon Elvis on 03.02.19 at 3:48 pm

When will we wake up and fix this clearly broken system?
……………………..

Not soon.

#4 SmallTownSteve on 03.02.19 at 3:51 pm

The feds and the Alberta NDP have been a horrible one-two punch to all of Canada.

#5 Really Now? on 03.02.19 at 3:55 pm

Why would anyone in Canada want to minimize the carbon emissions of CO2? Its a scientific fact through the process of photosynthesis this becomes plant food giving us oxygen to breathe. Without oxygen we humans will have a slow death march. The trees, lawns, and crops take it in as food giving us oxygen in return. Why do you think the greenhouses pump CO2 inside, but to make the crops grow bigger and faster? Canada’s total emissions from all sources amounts to less than 3%, and is not our problem when compared to the rest of the world.

#6 OlaR on 03.02.19 at 4:06 pm

I completely agree that our leadership is feckless and without vision. And I am relieved to know that you ‘believe in global warming’ – since there is an incredibly strong scientific consensus on this future-of-humanity threatening phenomenon. If the pro-pipeline people would generally start talking about climate chaos as the emergency that it is, they would advance the dialogue a lot further than by minimizing and making the frequently-heard excuse that ‘since the world is not going off fossil fuels anytime soon, the world might as well buy from us.” It’s not just enviros who have a responsibility to advance solutions. Let’s hear some concrete, serious ideas from the oil patch. Only then will they win some trust and a willing ear from those of us who see further oil and gas development as insanity.

#7 BillyBob on 03.02.19 at 4:12 pm

When will we wake up and fix this clearly broken system?

……………………..

Never. It’s Canada.

#8 Terry on 03.02.19 at 4:13 pm

“This is just one more foreign energy company to scream uncle and close up shop here in Canada.”

Agreed Ryan………..Altagas is another company that is selling off Canadian assets and surviving leaving Canada by buying U.S. power generating companies. I’ve invested in this company since it’s future looks more solid and stable now that they are investing away from Canada. This is what our Liberal government has done to companies here. I don’t invest that much here anymore either. I moved money away from Canada and into the U.S., Emerging markets and Global equity markets. Canada is a poor choice for investors right now. The grass is greener (Ka-Ching) abroad.

#9 Damifino on 03.02.19 at 4:20 pm

I saw Jagmeet Singh speaking before the cameras after his by-election win in Burnaby South.

He spoke to the effect that he had no time to waste given total ecological collapse was a mere dozen years away.

I’ve no doubt he’s an amiable guy, but I find him rather on the naive side and can’t him seriously. So I don’t.

#10 Figmund Sreud on 03.02.19 at 4:24 pm

Hi Ryan, … just a suggestion: you may want to bounce off your today’s post by this guy in Houston:

https://mobile.twitter.com/aeberman12?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

With his expertise, his comments – if he chooses so – would be of great service to the community of this blog.

Best,

F.S. – Calgary, Alberta.

#11 Raging Ranter on 03.02.19 at 4:25 pm

Why is this happening? Because as we have seen this week, 9000 jobs in Quebec are more important that 100s of thousands out West. Something to do with Liberal electoral math.

#12 The real Kip (Ret) on 03.02.19 at 4:27 pm

Well they don’t want our ‘dirty oil’…until they run out. Then they’ll kill us for it.

We need more gold cuff link, Porsche driving know-it-alls that can’t figure out that at any price under $50bbl we lose money. Building more pipelines to sell at a loss is not the answer.

#13 AK on 03.02.19 at 4:36 pm

“When will our leaders realize their own culpability in this pathetic state of affairs and when will the government change course and look to fix this broken system?”
=====================================
On October 21, 2019. Let’s hope that all Canadians will have woken up by then.

#14 Eco Capitalist on 03.02.19 at 4:36 pm

We can’t have it both ways. Either we leave it in the ground and go all in on a green economy, or we stop pretending we care and go all in on the petro economy. No one has ever kicked a drug habit by taking more drugs.

I do agree that this has been completely mismanaged by our government. Maybe we should ask the Norwegians to run our oil patch for us?

#15 It's a plan! on 03.02.19 at 4:37 pm

Well thats what you get when butts runs the country…half destroyed owetario… then set his sights on Canada

#16 JMK Jr on 03.02.19 at 4:40 pm

If we cumulatively lost $58 billion, someone cumulatively gained $58 billion.

Hmmm…I wonder who that was?

*cough* Rockefellers
*cough* David Suzuki
*cough* Al Gore
*cough* Gates
*cough* Buffet
*cough* Special Interest NGOs

Bad cold…sorry Ryan!

#17 Living and Learning on 03.02.19 at 4:42 pm

Ryan,

You said you believe in global warming and that we need to minimize carbon emissions to combat climate change. Here is a presentation, to a senate committee, by Professor Emeritus Don Easterbrook from Western Washington University. He is a real climate scientist that has integrity (something that is sadly lacking in our current political leaders and bought and paid for “scientists”). Anyone who thinks man made climate change is serious should watch this. His research proves that the earth goes through cycles of warming and cooling roughly 30 years each all while atmospheric C02 levels increase. He found that there is absolutely NO correlation between C02 and global temperature or climate change. He said that the last warming period ended in 1998 and we are presently in a cooling period which is expected to last until about 2030. He has plenty of data to backup his assertions. His presentation is a real eye opener. Folks we are being had.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dSVkSCN_hLQ&feature=share

#18 AGuyInVancouver on 03.02.19 at 4:44 pm

A couple reality checks:
-capital investment in all oil areas fell after the steep price declines of 2014
-with the boom in US shale oil it would make sense for American companies to re-focus their attention there.
-the delays with Keystone XL have zero to do with Canada’s Liberal government.
-maritime regulations coming into effect are going to make Alberta’s heavy oil a lot less appealing to investors.
-in the next 10 years there will be a huge switchover worldwide from internal combustion vehicles to electric.

#19 Matsebula on 03.02.19 at 4:48 pm

Something not a lot of people are saying out loud is that the Libs bought Transmountain with the intent to let it die on the vine. If the Libs let it die on the vine as a government owned asset, it is still way cheaper than if Kinder were to have sued the feds for liquidated damages as a result of the ridiculous regulatory environment we have in this country. Justin Trudeau does not understand much of anything, whether that is foreign policy, budgets, capital, or anything else. I’d pack up too and play down south where they want business.

#20 Lost...but not leased on 03.02.19 at 4:48 pm

Ryan:

Re “global warming”…are you stating that, for sake of clarity..than MANKIND is the main driver of alleged “warming” of the planet ?

#21 Make It Grow on 03.02.19 at 4:56 pm

Higher CO2 is good for plants and humans, whereas, lowing the CO2 is bad science.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jODIYw_5A40

#22 Remembrancer on 03.02.19 at 5:05 pm

Ryan,

What’s your view in this calculus of the value of new refinery construction? Its been what, the mid-eighties since the last one was built in Canada? There’s a lot of discussion about pipelines and moving bitumen around but are the economics so bad for local high-grade processing or is this even more NIMBY-ism at work?

#23 mike in Airdrie on 03.02.19 at 5:08 pm

Here’s hoping our upcoming provincial and federal elections introduce some new ideologies which actually favor investment rather than continuing to finance a larger public sector on a shrinking tax base.

#24 Dave on 03.02.19 at 5:12 pm

We still have 1 LNG project in Kitimat

#25 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.02.19 at 5:14 pm

A pipeline should be built through northern BC to Prince Rupert.
Shorter sailing time to Asia, direct pipeline route to the Tar sands of Ft Mac , Alberta.
A no brainer unless you’re a politician…

If the protesters in southern BC are adamant that there shouldnt be a pipeline terminus in Burnaby and the inevitable ship/whale strikes through the busy Georgia Straight…….
Move it north.

#26 brydle604 on 03.02.19 at 5:21 pm

Right on Ryan!
totally agree.

#27 Dolce Vita on 03.02.19 at 5:23 pm

How dare you be so pragmatic.

The problem is in Ottawa. Our PM has yet to learn, in his largely frat boy life, that you cannot please everyone all of the time. In the end, you please no one.

He needs to put his foot down and act in the National Interest when it comes to the Energy Industry. His inaction has cost the livelihoods of over 100,000 people and at least $54 billion in revenue as you point out and that, in a short period of time.

Unfortunately for Canada, its PM is arrogant, unyielding, literally and figuratively a ponce, fancying himself above the law.

Until then, what was our most profitable net of imports commodity will be put on hold as will our economy.

The Americans and their body language people on YouTube are having a field day, if not showing an unhealthy interest with our body language poser, deceitful PM:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WMkE6_TH1Lk

October cannot come soon enough.

#28 Circle square on 03.02.19 at 5:25 pm

The argument that we need to sell more oil to fund alternative energy programs is as illogical as saying we need to sell more narcitics to fund drug rehab programs.

The world is addicted to oil. Supplying it with more is not the solution.

#29 Lost...but not leased on 03.02.19 at 5:26 pm

IMHO…we are experiencing a millenial demographic shift.

Boomers are retiring…they are downsizing their demands and subsequent impact on economy…by both choice and other factors.

I never believed in PEAK OIL…that’s based on discredited “Fossil Fuel” theory…ie Oil is continually replenished by earth.

Carbon Dioxide = plant fertilizer= more oxygen =WIN WIN for all life forms.

Tesla cars???? will NOT perform well in winter conditions..

BC just experienced its COLDEST February on record.

UBC study stated consumers purchases of fruits and vegetable dropped by 13%….dairy was down…meat consumption was up. Wazzup?

Alberta Tar Sands?….the USA has them designated as a secured strategic supply. It was stupid for Canada to rely on revenue from what is likely the worst (aka low price/high cost)raw material to extract oil etc. from.

PS: Is Canada being “Weimar’d”?

#30 Ryan Lewenza on 03.02.19 at 5:30 pm

Lost…but not leased. “Re “global warming”…are you stating that, for sake of clarity..than MANKIND is the main driver of alleged “warming” of the planet”

The burning of fossil fuels releases carbon dioxide into our atmosphere. Much of this carbon gets trapped in our atmosphere which contributes to “global warming”. World population has doubled over the last 50 years to 7.5 bln people today. More people equals more oil consumption which means more carbon released into our atmosphere. Yes I believe mankind has played a role in global warming. To what degree I can’t say but given these simple facts I think it’s reasonable to believe mankind played a role. I’m sure people will come back with alternative explanations like long-term warming cycles or sunspots, but I’m a big believer in the theory of occam’s razor and therefore believe our increased oil consumption has contributed to the current warming of our planet. – Ryan L

#31 Figmund Sreud on 03.02.19 at 5:32 pm

ICYM: The International Energy Agency publishes its annual “World Energy Outlook”.

It’s usually a door-stopping 660 plus-page overview of everything energy: … from European LNG terminals to Chinese power utilities to U.S. shale, Russian oil and gas … to Canadian petroleum reserves, and it sets out some significant implications of the differences between varieties of oil.

Needless to say, therefore, if you want to be a successful oil player, it’s critical to know these differences, … and oil producers know this most well. Hence departures to greener pastures!

And so, consider:

… oil produced from Canada’s Athabasca tar sands has an API gravity of 8. It’s amongst the world’s heaviest types of crude oil in production today. It requires greatest effort to refine.

… in contrast, as an example, the Permian and Eagle Ford oil has an API gravity of approximately 38-42. This means Permian and Eagle Ford basins produce much more valuable – much cheaper to refine – light oil.

Anyway, … been there, seen it, dunnit. Retired! Most investors think of oil as simply, … well, oil. Most inappropriate thinking…

Cheers,

F.S. – Calgary, Alberta

#32 CEW9 on 03.02.19 at 5:37 pm

Roght on the money today Ryan. We ignore the oil issue at our national peril.

An interesting note is the reports that our oil is actually in higher demand in Asia, particularly China due to its higher proportions of diesel and ashpalt, and may actually sell at a premium there if we can ever get it to tidewater.

#33 Bezengy on 03.02.19 at 5:42 pm

Balanced budgets are the answer. Mr. Dressup could never have promised everything to everyone if he had to run a balanced budget.

Btw…Harper had a balanced budget.

#34 The Real Mark on 03.02.19 at 5:57 pm

Nothing wrong with foreign companies selling their O&G assets to Canadian companies at a discount. We’ve heard for years that foreigners are coming to take Canada’s O&G away cheap, and to earn all the profits. This is an epic opportunity to “re-Canadianize” the business so that Canadians have control of our destiny and the use of Canadian content is assured. Instead of the often internationally acquired content.

Additionally, most of the sales are being done at fire sale prices, so Canadian firms are getting great deals on the assets. Why would anyone be against this? Its hardly a disgrace that Canadian companies are solidifying their own asset bases using their cashflows instead of just leaving their cash to idle.

As far as “revenue losses to discounts”, much of that chart is exaggerated. Most oil that comes out of the oilsands is contracted for on a long-term basis. The ‘discount’ is just to a relatively small quantity of incremental oil, which is often produced by junior companies.

Canada desperately needs to develop industry outside of O&G, resources, and housing. Cultural industries. Tourism. High end R&D (which has been absolutely decimated over the past 2 decades in the post-Nortel era). And yes, Energy East, Transmountain Expansion, and Keystone XL should be built to provide efficient access to North American markets. But the last thing Canada needs is more investment in upstream Alberta O&G given Canada’s dramatic situation of oversupply which would most definitely not be alleviated by pipelines.

#35 MinistryOfTruth on 03.02.19 at 5:58 pm

“So, as world demand for oil continues unabated, and Canada’s production continues to rise, where are the much needed new pipelines to move this stuff, especially to countries other than the US, where 99% of our oil exports go? ” – RL.

Ryan, Do you think this is a coincidence, anyone can see all of this but our politicians are blind ? and Who benefited this 54B $ if not us?

#36 Shawn Allen on 03.02.19 at 6:03 pm

Regulatory Dysfunction and Policy Interference

I’d put a ton of blame on Trudeau’s policy interference for arbitrarily canceling Northern Gateway after the regulator approved it and for effectively killing Energy East with new regulatory policy and for not standing up to assert federal authority over inter provincial pipelines and impose the law on protesters (including premiers).

It is sheer madness to ask a pipeline proponent to be responsible for the environmental impacts of extracting and burning the energy. A pipeline should should be responsible only for itself. For example, putting oil through a pipeline cannot possibly harm any whales. That is a matter for ocean shipping regulations. What does the NEB know about ocean shipping?

I would also put a ton of blame on the National Energy Board for allowing massive scope creep. If a pipeline meets engineering safety standards why do we need the NEB second guessing the engineers?

The NEB should have had a much-reduced scope in these matters.

I saw from the inside that energy regulation has basically long since collapsed under its own weight as they allowed the scope and evidence in hearings to explode exponentially for years. Sad!

#37 Dolce Vita on 03.02.19 at 6:04 pm

#19 AGuyInVancouver

-Your first 2 facts are oxymoronic, a non sequitur to each other. Only 1 can be true.

-No one spoke about Keystone delays, but yourself.

-Maritime regulations, if true what you say, will hinder all traffic not just AB crude.

-ICE to electric. Perhaps but yet again, deeds and actions speak louder than words. You need to watch YouTube videos of electric car owners trying to negotiate a simple thing such as a holiday trip out of town. Literally turns a walk around the block into an Olympic Marathon.

The charging infrastructure is sparse, not common for all manufacturers, Canada (incl. La La Land as of late) is cold during the Winter affecting battery range by a good 20%, range estimates by Tesla et. al. are based on having nothing on but the motor (not even the “radio”, Mae West would be have been disappointed).

It will take longer than 5 years to overcome those problems, let alone 10. These are not cell phones or the latest S/W we are talking about that can be upgraded quickly and easily. These are tonne heavy metal and composite machines that carry people around in them.

Economically and at present, electric is nonviable, ICE is.

Ryan has it. Sell all the oil we can now, use the royalties to subsidize technologies such as electric vehicles and their infrastructure. THAT will take a decade or more.

Look to the time it took for ICE to displace the horse and buggy. Therein lies the truth.

#38 The Real Mark on 03.02.19 at 6:07 pm

“What’s your view in this calculus of the value of new refinery construction? There’s a lot of discussion about pipelines and moving bitumen around but are the economics so bad for local high-grade processing or is this even more NIMBY-ism at work?”

I’m not Ryan, but its a shame that any oilsands product goes into long-distance pipelines in Canada requiring a diluent or a solvent. ie: diluted bitumen, or the derogatory abbreviation for such that some may use.

Two reasons, a) the energy and capacity requirements of shipping even diluted product increase substantially, thus robbing pipeline capacity. and b) the product can and should be upgraded to something that resembles normal crude oil in Canadian facilities.

Once the pipeline situation is clarified, one way or another, then the economic case for building more upgrading capacity in Canada will be more significantly defined. Upgrading capacity allows for pipelines to be more efficiently utilized, saves energy, provides for a Canadian value-add. As well as broadening the range of refineries that can actually use the oilsands-produced oil. The fundamental problem is uncertainty. Government saying “maybe” to pipelines (as is the case with the current Liberal government which has conditionally approved some projects) is far more damaging than governments giving a hard “yes” or “no”.

” Its been what, the mid-eighties since the last one was built in Canada?”

That’s sort of true. Additional refining capacity for end-user products has been built at a number of sites even as recently as the 2010s. And there’s been significant improvements in capacity utilization at most of the operating refineries in the past few decades on account of de-bottlenecking, faster turn-arounds, and computer controls.

#39 Hey Ryan on 03.02.19 at 6:31 pm

What does your hypothetical of global warming have to do with Canada? Our total emissions for all sources are less than 3%. Thus take your hypothetical to USA, China, and India instead because that is where the problem lies in the atmosphere.

#40 Ray on 03.02.19 at 6:48 pm

Why is W Buffet buying Suncor if the Canadian Oil sands are so uneconomical ?
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/suncor-su-shares-warren-buffets-150703318.html

#41 Ryan Lewenza on 03.02.19 at 7:15 pm

Remembrancer “What’s your view in this calculus of the value of new refinery construction? Its been what, the mid-eighties since the last one was built in Canada?”

In theory I like the idea. We ship oil to the US then they ship back refined products to us. The thinking is why can’t we just refine products here. But we’re a massive country geographically and with a small population. That might hinder the economics of building more refining capacity here. I would need to better study the economics of it to make an informed call. – Ryan L

#42 The Real Mark on 03.02.19 at 7:16 pm

“#40 Ray on 03.02.19 at 6:48 pm
Why is W Buffet buying Suncor if the Canadian Oil sands are so uneconomical ?”

The big oilsands companies are highly laden with long-term debt. So in a rising long-term interest rate world, the oilsands companies basically enjoy higher oil prices (due to the implied rising inflation), and the value of their long-term debt depreciates. Thus increasing the value of equity in such firms.

Its basically a perfect match to the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio which is characterized by a lot of investments, such as in FIRE, that will perform horribly in a long-term rising interest rate, rising inflation environment. Buffett probably should be looking at gold miners, which display even stronger inverse correlation to long-term interest rates, but his public viewpoint on the precious metals sector has been quite dogmatic.

#43 Ryan Lewenza on 03.02.19 at 7:22 pm

Hey Ryan “What does your hypothetical of global warming have to do with Canada? Our total emissions for all sources are less than 3%.”

So we shouldn’t make any effort to minimize carbon emissions?? If everyone thought like that no one would do anything. And I don’t think global warming is “hypothetical”. Global temperatures have been steadily rising for over 100 years. I don’t believe the debate is whether the earth is warming, rather what’s causing it and can we do anything to address it. – Ryan L

#44 joe on 03.02.19 at 7:26 pm

-good article !!

-delayed yes, frustrating yes, outrageous yes, but at least 2 are going to get built

#45 Ryan Lewenza on 03.02.19 at 7:31 pm

The Real Mark “Nothing wrong with foreign companies selling their O&G assets to Canadian companies at a discount.”

A bit of a chicken or the egg issue here. Sure Canadian companies are buying assets on the cheap but you have to go back to why foreign companies are selling? Huge discount in our oil price, terrible energy policies and an outdated regulatory system. All of this greatly weighs on our own Canadian energy producers!! – Ryan L

#46 Not 1st on 03.02.19 at 7:36 pm

Ryan today I salute you. Your best post.

One correction. The damage done to the Canadian economy by trudeaus gang of bandits is closer to $250B. Shocking isn’t it.

Now cue the down town Toronto latte loving socialists.

#47 barb on 03.02.19 at 7:37 pm

“Though the price fluctuates, NH3 typically costs about $0.23 a liter ($0.85 per gallon) and has no byproducts other than harmless nitrogen and water.”

source: https://www.ozy.com/rising-stars/hes-creating-a-new-fuel-out-of-thin-air-for-85-cents-per-gallon/92686

Proven to work for individuals (~$1,000) and small remote communities.

I just wouldn’t want to be behind his truck at a red light.
*stink*

Oh…don’t let the fact that O’Leary and T2 found it interesting dissuade you from reading it.

#48 Fraud Discovered on 03.02.19 at 7:41 pm

This goes back many years, and there are hundreds of documents were they have been caught recently to manipulate a desired outcome.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UE6QxBaIEv8

#49 cowtown cowboy on 03.02.19 at 7:47 pm

Well said Ryan…

I don’t know how many more times we have to scream it from the West before the ‘leaders’ in Ottawa will listen…

once the orange scourge is eradicated in AB there will be significantly more pressure brought to bear on this..

soon…very soon

#50 Blessed Canadian Millenial on 03.02.19 at 7:51 pm

“Global Warming”… what a sham.

Call me a “climate change denier” and other names, but climate has been changing since, oh, the beginning of time and it will continue to change NO MATTER WHAT WE DO.

Most folks have bought into this hook, line, and sinker. Sigh, I can’t blame them though.

#51 Millennial Realist on 03.02.19 at 7:53 pm

#37 Dolce Vita

In trying to dismiss what AGuyInVancouver said (“-in the next 10 years there will be a huge switchover worldwide from internal combustion vehicles to electric.”)….

you said:

“Look to the time it took for ICE to displace the horse and buggy. Therein lies the truth.”

You could not be more stunningly *way off!* in your assessment!

Check out the first two minutes of this video. In 1900, when dissemination and adoption of new technology was incredibly slow compared to today, it still took barely a decade to go from horse and buggy to ICE everywhere.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0

By 1913 it was completely over. Horses were history. And this was a century ago. Without tv, radio, modern media, mass roadway transportation etc…to push the change.

A more recent example, the iphone came around 2007, by 2010 older cell phone types and Blackberry, still a baby itself, were toast. The leader of the decade before, Nokia? Haha!

It’s true that early stages like ICE patent models came in the late 1800s and those hard-to-apply theoretical things always may come decades before a disruptive change in actual production. But we are already far past those first invention days when it comes to EVs and even self-driving cars. And the time needed to get through the adoption/mass production period now is dramatically faster than even a decade ago, let alone a century.

You sound like you’re about 150 years old dude ;)

The next 10 years will make heads spin everywhere, especially those that are only looking in the rearview mirror.

And this technological change is going to be a bigger metaphor, mirrored in many ways by the generational social, economic and political changes that are already beginning as Millennials take over.

#52 just a dude on 03.02.19 at 7:54 pm

Ryan, excellent post. Thank you.

Mr. dressup must go before he permanently ruins this great country of ours. The man is an embarrassment:

https://www.therecord.com/opinion-story/9201740-editorial-cartoon-for-mar-2-/

#53 Not 1st on 03.02.19 at 7:54 pm

Let’s address climate change. First the models are wrong and never have matched actual conditions. We have had 1.3deg of warming. That’s a far cry from the 4deg predicted and even the 2deg catastrophe they talk about.

Why don’t the models ever march? Well because weather climate and environment intersect with geography geology the sun and a whole host of variables. It’s a chaotic system and can never be modelled to accuracy. The temp variations you think are happening lie within the natural variation of a chaotic system.

In other words it isn’t real.

So let’s debate being efficient. Of course we should look for energy sources that reduce externalities. But there is only one and that’s nuclear. Solar and wind don’t work in Canada. Period. Didn’t you wake up on any of the past month of polar vortexes and thank your lucky stars we had natural gas heat? Now just imagine if you had to rely on panels and windmills on those days. It cannot be done.

#54 Blessed Canadian Millenial on 03.02.19 at 7:56 pm

#25 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.02.19 at 5:14 pm
A pipeline should be built through northern BC to Prince Rupert.
Shorter sailing time to Asia, direct pipeline route to the Tar sands of Ft Mac , Alberta.
A no brainer unless you’re a politician…

If the protesters in southern BC are adamant that there shouldnt be a pipeline terminus in Burnaby and the inevitable ship/whale strikes through the busy Georgia Straight…….
Move it north.

——————-

This is too simple. Therefore, it will never be done.

#55 Still in Cowtown on 03.02.19 at 7:56 pm

Just over 81% of emissions come from end user economy: driving, flying, getting fresh fruit and veggies in Canada in the winter, heating, shipping via Amazon etc… just under 11% is wellhead/production emissions, 5% is refining/transport… look in the mirror people… And keep buying/supporting all those bastions of equality, rights and environmental regulations like… ah never mind… enjoy your lattes in disposable cups and iPhones and fresh grapes and two day guaranteed delivery service….

#56 Blessed Canadian Millenial on 03.02.19 at 7:58 pm

#28 Circle square on 03.02.19 at 5:25 pm
The argument that we need to sell more oil to fund alternative energy programs is as illogical as saying we need to sell more narcitics to fund drug rehab programs.

The world is addicted to oil. Supplying it with more is not the solution.

——————-

The world-wide demand for oil is not shrinking, as was pointed out.

So you’re saying that you’d rather get oil from countries where there are known human-rights violation than from Canada?

At the same time, you’re willing to forego lost revenue and loss of jobs?

Give your head a shake…

#57 acdel on 03.02.19 at 8:01 pm

Good post Ryan.

#58 Blessed Canadian Millenial on 03.02.19 at 8:04 pm

#44 Ryan Lewenza on 03.02.19 at 7:22 pm
Hey Ryan “What does your hypothetical of global warming have to do with Canada? Our total emissions for all sources are less than 3%.”

So we shouldn’t make any effort to minimize carbon emissions?? If everyone thought like that no one would do anything. And I don’t think global warming is “hypothetical”. Global temperatures have been steadily rising for over 100 years. I don’t believe the debate is whether the earth is warming, rather what’s causing it and can we do anything to address it. – Ryan L

—————

Sorry, Ryan, but you’re mistaken. The unadjusted temps show that that temperatures have actually lowered since 1998.

How do you explain this?

Don’t believe everything you read, Ryan. Including my post, of course. BUT, like most folks, you’ve bought in to this climate change sham.

#59 Ustabe on 03.02.19 at 8:16 pm

#14 AK on 03.02.19 at 4:36 pm

“When will our leaders realize their own culpability in this pathetic state of affairs and when will the government change course and look to fix this broken system?”
=====================================
On October 21, 2019. Let’s hope that all Canadians will have woken up by then.

Woken up to what however?

Leaving aside the NDP and the Greens and concentrating on either of the two conservative parties and their leaders…you think Scheer or Max have the stones, desire or even policy to “fix” this?

I don’t. I’ll grant you that Trudeau and the Liberals are abysmal but do we, as Canadians, really want to throw the baby out with the bathwater? Until there is a competency in the conservative political movement in Canada we are reduced to fighting among ourselves on Internet message boards.

Who can bring that competency? Not any of the current players, Liberal or Conservative. Welcome to the Thunderdome, eh?

Until we start finding and electing citizens with resumes germane to the running of the country and leaving the career politicians behind it will remain same old, same old regardless of party in power.

#60 BobC on 03.02.19 at 8:21 pm

There’s a small mean streak in me that hopes for another 4-5 years of your Obama lite (T2) and his socialists cohorts. Then maybe you’ll begin to understand our love for Trump.

#61 Robert Ash on 03.02.19 at 8:22 pm

My disappointment is that a lot of young Engineers, Business Grads, Computer Scientists, Skilled Tradespersons, Geologists, Agrologists, Light Manufacturing, Commercial Trucking and Integrated Logistics companies, Specialty and Chemical Co.s, Banks, Service Oriented Companies, Mom and Pop co.s, Hotels and Motels, Construction and Civics co.c, etc, etc, etc,… Will miss out on the Fantastic career opportunities I had…. so much wasted and foregone futures… really sad…. I put the Blame on Notely, Trudea + Butts, and the Selfish and Weak Eco Opportunists… Even the Road you walk on is Fossil based…. everything is Energy Based, and the World nees more Energy… But we can use our Ingenuity, and Skill and Science to make it more efficient, as the Oil and Gas Industry in Canada, has been doing, for decades, now…. In the 80’s all Western Canadian Oil companies were Dyking, Controlling, and striving for Optimization Efficiences… and we only need to focus on actual Pollution abatement…not Taxation… The Scorn cast on this enviable Business sector and Asset, is born, also to a large extent on the MSMedia… Sadly.

#62 Ace Goodheart on 03.02.19 at 8:24 pm

Flowchart for use by Canadian government in deciding whether or not to care about an industry:

1. Is the industry based out of Quebec? – no (don’t care, no further enquiries needed) – yes (inquire further, would there be votes gained by helping the industry?).

2. If the industry is based out of Quebec, then determine how many seats in Parliament might be won/lost, by supporting, not supporting it.

3. Support Quebec based industries. Ignore everyone else. Repeat.

No wonder Western Canada keeps threatening to separate…..

I thought more of you than this. – Garth

#63 PeterfromCalgary on 03.02.19 at 8:36 pm

Great job of summing up the problem Ryan. Canada is losing out because of this pipeline mess. Most Albertans are aware of this. However, the message needs to go out to other parts of Canada so everyone can pressure our current politicians to do something or elect new leaders that will.

#64 Dave on 03.02.19 at 8:42 pm

Global warming is a looming disaster and building more pipelines is not a solution to the problem. We need to shift to other energy sources. The Canadian Oil and Gas industry gets more subsidies than any other G7 nation with over 3 billion a year. Funny how you didn’t even mention this. The oil and gas industry generates something like two percent of the jobs in Canada. The world’s leading scientists have warned we have less than 12 years to limit the climate change catastrophe. The ecomomics of the Tran mountain pipeline was based on $100/barrel which clearly isn’t the case. Instead of obsessing about pipelines to belch more oil out, we should be looking at more sustainable ways of living.

#65 Smoking Man on 03.02.19 at 8:57 pm

Everything points to the assman Very strong chance he and people kind ostructed justice. Up to 10 years in the pen.

So with him and socks potentially in a zebra suits soon might be a great time to long on the Alberta oil sector.

#66 Smoking Man on 03.02.19 at 9:04 pm

Ryan we are in a mini ice age. Smarten up.
Stop listening to UN paid shills pretending to be scientists.

Aliens and there mother ships have been siphoning the sun’s plasma for too many years now.

Climatedepo.com

#67 TurnerNation on 03.02.19 at 9:21 pm

Peak Oil sure sold lots of books.

There’s little left denying Kanada is being wound down into a Welfare State per UN agenda.
The egg heads may conjure up their models but look around.

Come one come all it’s a free-for-all.

#68 Jay on 03.02.19 at 9:38 pm

I can’t believe the people in BC, Quebec, Ontario cheering the failure of Alberta and hoping for Canada to stop producing oil. Why not sell the resource while we can. If we don’t supply it someone else will and we will be funding all the free education, health care and infrastructure we like for other countries instead of ours.

Hopefully one day we can live in a world where we don’t need oil or gas to move food to our grocery stores, to heat our homes and to basically continue the lifestyle we have. But right now this is not possible. We can always use the pipelines to ship fresh water at a huge profit if that ever happens.

How would you feel if GM or Bombardier announced they would be keeping all these plants open and expanding with all new products, but then government stepped in and said that an environmental assessment was required to evaluate all downstream impacts of any car, train or airplane and delayed everything until they just give up and move somewhere else.

There is a reason no one wants to invest anywhere in this country. Funny how no one likes production of oil but they have no issues burning it.

#69 Drill Baby Drill on 03.02.19 at 9:38 pm

Drill Baby Drill speaks for itself. Canada needs the money. Do not be ashamed.

#70 Drill Baby Drill on 03.02.19 at 9:39 pm

It is Ok to think about Global warming but please do not fall into group think.

#71 Drill Baby Drill on 03.02.19 at 9:43 pm

Canada emits 1.6% of the worlds green house gases. The port of Vancouver is the largest coal terminal in North America. Let’s quit the BS and get back to business and pay off our debts. Otherwise let’s go our own ways. Alberta needs to seriously rethink it’s position in this so called confederation.

#72 SirHani on 03.02.19 at 9:48 pm

A bit better

#73 Not 1st on 03.02.19 at 9:58 pm

#65

Simply answered, no it’s not. The energy industry is a full 10% of our GDP not even counting the spin off effects and depreciation and CCA are not subsidies.

Look you can learn something everyday. And you should learn what supports your economy and your social programs.

#74 n1tro on 03.02.19 at 10:06 pm

#30 Ryan Lewenza on 03.02.19 at 5:30 pm
…but I’m a big believer in the theory of occam’s razor and therefore believe our increased oil consumption has contributed to the current warming of our planet. – Ryan L
———————————-
Sorry to hear that but occam’s razor isnt scientific and isn’t used by any real scientist to prove or disprove things we observe around us.

So I assume you are trading in your Porshe for a Bolt to do your part?

#75 Paul on 03.02.19 at 10:06 pm

#14 AK on 03.02.19 at 4:36 pm
“When will our leaders realize their own culpability in this pathetic state of affairs and when will the government change course and look to fix this broken system?”
=====================================
On October 21, 2019. Let’s hope that all Canadians will have woken up by then.
————————————————————————————————
Just keep talking to friends, family,neighbors don’t let it go off the radar. Come the summer donate, canvas, deliver panflets above all vote. I have friends that couldn’t get to the polls you know too busy,then bitch later.

#76 SW on 03.02.19 at 10:15 pm

It’s a thought-provoking blog post.
Perhaps if Canadians in some larger cities weren’t so crazed for property, they’d be able to invest in useful and productive industries.

#77 VicPaul on 03.02.19 at 10:22 pm

And I don’t think global warming is “hypothetical”. Global temperatures have been steadily rising for over 100 years. I don’t believe the debate is whether the earth is warming, rather what’s causing it and can we do anything to address it. – Ryan L
***********

I absolutely, completely agree with your “why the F are the leaders and special interest groups/peoples in this country squandering one of our national treasures” treatise…your conviction to global warming, much less so. Big Climate’s warming projections are wildly wrong -and have been for years. At last look, it’s a quagmire of select science/funding to push a one world agenda.

M55BC

#78 Statsfreak on 03.02.19 at 10:34 pm

Great post, Ryan. All the important stats in a nutshell. Someone please plonk this info on the desk of Trudeau 2.0

#79 VicPaul on 03.02.19 at 10:46 pm

#60 Ustabe on 03.02.19 at 8:16 pm
#14 AK on 03.02.19 at 4:36 pm

“When will our leaders realize their own culpability in this pathetic state of affairs and when will the government change course and look to fix this broken system?”
=====================================
On October 21, 2019. Let’s hope that all Canadians will have woken up by then.

Woken up to what however?

Leaving aside the NDP and the Greens and concentrating on either of the two conservative parties and their leaders…you think Scheer or Max have the stones, desire or even policy to “fix” this?

*******
Three and a half years ago, on this blog, I quietly said that Trudeau would be our next PM. This election-cycle’s prediction…..a Maxime Minority. The guy espouses personal responsibility (not collective victimization signaling) supports O/G sector and will abolish carbon tax, rejects ALL lobby groups -recognizes the UN is broken (if not irreparably corrupted) and holds Libertarian ideals that include small government.
As a dude of some intellect and character/conviction,
when compared to guys like Socks and Shmeer….there isn’t one.

M55BC

#80 Ray on 03.02.19 at 11:17 pm

China intends to build 700 new coal powered electrical power plants within the next decade. That’s over 1 per week ! Where are the Environmental demonstrators in Tiananmen Square ? It is this kind of stuff that makes a total sham of the whole Canadian Oil Sands paid for protesters. Our government has to grow up and play with their “big boy” pants on if they really want to compete internationally.
http://www.mining.com/chinese-companies-build-700-coal-plants-outside-china/

#81 NoCash on 03.02.19 at 11:33 pm

Wind and solar power are not available on demand and there are no technologies to make them so. Refusing to face these inconvenient facts poses a serious threat to our energy security”

#82 D.D. Corkum on 03.02.19 at 11:38 pm

#39 Hey Ryan on 03.02.19 at 6:31 pm

“[Canada’s] total emissions for all sources are less than 3% [so the problem is] USA, China, and India instead…”

———–

We are only about 0.5% of the world’s population, so this is a lame excuse for doing nothing.

#83 LG on 03.02.19 at 11:40 pm

#18 Living and Learning

After watching the YouTube: Prof Don Easterbrook Crashes the Global Warming Party – YouTube …

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dSVkSCN_hLQ&feature=share

All the climate change fixes, the cost to tax payers and business … It made me think of a line from a book from Leo Tolstoy’s famous book, The Death of Ivan Ilyich, – ‘as he lay on his death bed with the question running through his mind:
“What if my whole life has been wrong?”

#84 To Hell with Alberta on 03.02.19 at 11:40 pm

To hell with Alberta and its whining, blah blah blah.

That province is simply on the wrong side of history. If your nitwit politicians and even dumber voters hadn’t wasted your Heritage Fund treasures and instead invested in a diverse economic future, you’d have new things for your economy to be structured around already. Look at Norway’s oil wealth.

Albertans?

Spendthrift Fools.

Sorry, but we have to save the earth for future human generations. Oil is the enemy of this and we must reduce our use of it quickly.

You allowed stupid right wing politicians to blow away your wealth. No discipline. No dedication to your future. Just lazy, short term, right wing thinking, for decades. Poor Notley has inherited a mess.

And now you say that is the rest of Canada’s fault? Or Justin’s? Give your heads a shake, crybabies.

Feel free to leave our country. But we’ll be taking back your land and giving it back to the First Nations. A people who won’t screw things up like you, idiot Albertans.

#85 Also in Cowtown on 03.03.19 at 12:11 am

“When will we wake up and fix this clearly broken system?”

The first wake up call is set for shortly after Premier Kenney is sworn in. It should be an interesting Spring and Summer where T2 and Comrade Horgan will wake up to some fierce opposition.

#86 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.03.19 at 12:14 am

To be clear, I am not some “drill baby drill” person. I believe in global warming and that we need to try to minimize the environmental impact of our oil production and consumption. And this is one of the reasons why I believe in adding new pipeline capacity because through this we will be able to sell more oil at higher prices, which will lead to higher revenues and taxes.
———–
So what you are saying is:
Increasing supply will lead to higher prices.
Did you win your degrees in the lottery?

#87 Al on 03.03.19 at 12:19 am

This is a drill baby drill article. Ramping up investments in oil, ESPECIALLY the oil sands is a complete lack of long term vision.

#88 Ryan You Forgot A Few on 03.03.19 at 12:38 am

Climate change is a natural phenomena caused by many factors, but not by humans. We have the volcanoes blowing up above the land; the sunspots; space weather; the geo magnetic effects; poles are shifting; earthquakes along the fault lines; and there are hundreds of deep ocean volcanoes spewing hot lava into the oceans. Do the research, and look at the daily data available. All together the ocean currents are warming, and changing the current directions; not to mention the effects on the jet stream. There is nothing that can be done to slow down mother nature, or mess with it. Global warming is a myth, and carbon tax is a joke for the greater fools.

#89 landlessinvan on 03.03.19 at 12:50 am

American O&G companies are rounding up the wagons to steal Venezuela’s oil–another attempted neoliberal coup.

#90 Nonplused on 03.03.19 at 1:12 am

Ryan, I agree with everything you said today except this line:

“This tax revenue can then be used to invest in renewables like wind, solar and hydropower.”

Wind only makes power when it’s windy, it can’t load follow, and a turbine typically only makes about 30% of it’s rated capacity. Therefore you would have to install 3 times as much wind as you need and of course lots of battery storage, unthinkable amounts of battery storage.

Solar suffers much the same problems as wind. I don’t know how much solar we’d have to install to meet peak demand in the winter when the sun is low in the sky but I think it would cover most of Manitoba and Saskatchewan.

All of the good hydro sites are already built, so we haven’t got much room to expand there. Also people don’t like flooding land. Also all hydro dams have a secret problem nobody talks about, in that under the water they are slowly filling up with sediment. Over time, the storage capacity of the reservoirs declines. There is no cost effective way of removing this sediment.

I believe in global warming, it’s pretty evident that there has been about a 1 degree Celsius warming in the last 100 years and it seems pretty straight forward that CO2 emissions are highly correlated. But I don’t believe the hockey-stick graphs. When ever you see a hockey stick graph in a business setting it is a fraud. We will have more warming if we continue to use fossil fuels but not so dramatic as the alarmists say. That said it is still a problem.

A more pressing concern is that fossil fuels are finite. We will run out of them one day even if that day may be some many years in the future. That is why we are drilling shale and deep water oil now at great expense and oil is at a “low” price when it is $50 a barrel and not $10 anymore. It is a scarce resource and scarcity is already at play. This happens to all scarce resources. Gold is a good example. It isn’t at $1350 now when once it was $20 because of some sort of monetization or because it is still money, but instead because it costs a fortune to get what gold remains out of the ground. Otherwise production would ramp up and up, but it’s going down. If gold could be produced for $20 an ounce while selling for $1350 don’t you think the miners would be throwing everything at it? Oil will eventually follow the same path.

So if wind doesn’t work, solar doesn’t work, hydro is built out and won’t last forever before the reservoirs are full of muck, and fossil fuels are finite in nature, what’s the answer? Gen IV nuclear is the only reasonable way out.

What is Gen IV nuclear? Simply put it is a much more advanced design or series of designs than our existing fleet of nuclear reactors, designed so they cannot melt down under any circumstances. They don’t even need containment. Some of them run on Thorium, some including the Thorium designs can also use a partial mixture of our current stockpiles of nuclear waste.

So why aren’t Gen IV reactors being built? Well, regulations. Remember when the government is involved everything regresses. People remember Chernobyl, which wouldn’t even be considered Gen I by western standards, and Fukashima which was a very old design from the 50’s and Three Mile Island which didn’t hardly release any radiation and they think of nuclear bombs and 3 eyed fish that glow in the dark. But Gen IV promises to be much safer and possibly help deal with the nuclear waste from earlier generations. But it needs to be built and tested, and then built and tested again, much like all technology evolves through iteration. Think of your iPhone. A new model every couple of years. Each one better than before. But we can’t do that if the people and government will not allow the scientists to get to work on it.

There is no way out from either climate change or “peak oil” (a bad term, finite fossil fuel resources is better) other than Gen IV nuclear. Even Bill Gates thinks so, and trust me he doesn’t make this stuff up, he has a whole department of researchers working for him. I’d guess a whole building full of them. You don’t get that rich by guessing about the future. Check out his past predictions. He’s got a pretty good record.

#91 gnome sane on 03.03.19 at 1:23 am

We need to abandon using BC anymore. They just can’t let go of the trees. Even if it is better for all of Canada economically.

Instead we should build a new pipeline to Churchill. And start using Hudson Bay, now that the Arctic is accessable much longer per year than in the past. Lots of cheap hydro power in Manitoba to fuel the machinery required at the port, and infrastructure surrounding it, after it’s built. And there are not as many trees to hug along the way between Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba. Pipeline construction should go much smoother.

And geopoliticaly speaking, it’s a very subtle yet legally sound way to flex our Arctic claims, since we have a northern port into the disputed areas. If we establish trade routes through our northern corridors, it gives us a much stronger position. And it’s just a free byproduct of skipping trying to get BC to help us. (with anything other than spending the rest of Canada’s money, just like Quebec does)

#92 Nic on 03.03.19 at 1:54 am

# 18
https://www.skepticalscience.com/don-easterbrook-heartland-distortion-of-reality.html

#93 Stan Brooks on 03.03.19 at 3:54 am

The bet on oils sands is off.

The other ‘pillar’ of the economy – the housing market drove the whole economy to a catastrophe, inflation and skyrocketing cost of living, killing in long run the savers and retirees. We can kiss pretty much all of our CPP and OAS good buy in terms of real benefits, even maxed it soon won’t be enough for 1/2 of a rent on a small apartment.

The ever rising high cost of living makes it impossible to save, even worse, people have to sell assets and go deeper in debt just to survive, see HELOCs and payday loans exploding, excessive taxes on property makes it even more difficult to survive.

The pathetic useless incompetent clown at BoC is absolutely clueless, the corrupted lying liberals even worse, the more we stay on this path of cheap money the worse the situation becomes for the next generations.

Chicago-ization and Detroit-ization of big cities, specially GTA is pretty much assured, combined with mass exodus of the capable and competent who would be looking for greener pastures, GTA in particular is for quite some time becoming impossible to live in without going deeper and deeper in debt.

————————————–

Global warming is controversial topic, CO2 is consumed by plants in order to close the cycle and produce biomass.

The real problem is that there are far too many of us in this small place that can sustain 1.5 – 2 billions at most.

AI, automation, demise of labour, economic policies will take care of it, ensuring people have no kids and do not reproduce.

It is paramount to find a place with less greedy and corrupt government where to settle in hope of survival, a place that allows sustainable in long run living.
The clueless and the ignorant will be eliminated, as always, this is how evolution works.

Chao and envoy the global warming, sorry climate change that manifests itself in the coldest ever February on record that continues well into March with the next polar vortex.

It sounds really stupid to buy a a million dollar igloo in the middle of a frozen wasteland just before the next global cooling.

#94 Stan Brooks on 03.03.19 at 4:30 am

#1 Joe Schmoe on 03.02.19 at 3:39 pm
Clearly, our government is focused on tourism industry supported by access to cannabis and prostitution.

https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/snc-lavalin-paid-for-gadhafi-sons-debauchery-while-he-was-in-canada-report

Quality investment in jobs…

verbatim:


Receipts gathered during an investigation of a former SNC-Lavalin executive show $30,000 in payments to Saadi Gadhafi for sexual services in Canada in 2008, La Presse reported. The documentation can now be revealed publicly because the prosecution of Stéphane Roy, former vice-president of SNC-Lavalin, on fraud and bribery charges was dropped last week due to court delays.

How convenient. One law for us, another for them, the politician friends.

These same guys own 27 % of 407 hidden behind fake Spanish company in traffic jammed GTA, 407 is the most expensive highway in the world on per kilometer bases.

Roy had testified in court that expenses associated with the trip were justified, and that he had the receipts to prove it. The expenses were justified at the time, testified another former executive, Riadh Ben Aissa — who, meanwhile, pled guilty last year to a forgery charge associated with allegations that SNC-Lavalin executives defrauded the McGill University University Health Centre of $22.5 million in a bid-rigging scheme.

By any measure bribing (giving gifts in exchange of lucrative contracts) is corruption, punished by Canadian and international law.
And what happened to them?
Nothing.

What happened to those involved in the Panama papers and offshore tax heaven scandal? Nothing.

What happened to bread price fixing scandal? Nothing.

Mr. horse face, butt chin, french villa guy instead choose to kill small businesses.
Mr. Socks repeats his nonsense of ‘jobs of all Canadians’, by that he probably meant hookers.

#95 David Driven on 03.03.19 at 5:03 am

Ryan, The Liberal Party is a puppet for American carpet baggers who spent billions on propaganda to defeat Harper and install the traitor Trudeau. . The activists are paid by Americans whether Canadians are starving or not. In short, the lickspittle like Butts, Suzuki are not effected by the massive downturn in the energy space. Why would anyone assume they care? We don’t have a Prime Minister we have a traitor working behind the scenes to kill the country and replace it with a stinking third world toilet where citizenship is replaced by a welfare state.

#96 Bezengy on 03.03.19 at 7:05 am

A few years back I received a pamphlet in the mail from our MP Charlie stating oil companies are gouging us. I sent an email to Charlie and asked which companies he was referring too? He responded with “all of them”. It’s this kind of mentality that has contributed to the situation. Typical NDP “the rich guys are screwing us” BS. National disgrace for sure.

#97 not 1st on 03.03.19 at 7:19 am

#85 To Hell with Alberta on 03.02.19 at 11:40 pm
—-

Sorry you are so mad. We will try to get the dirty oil cheques out to you faster next time.

#98 not 1st on 03.03.19 at 7:23 am

Ryan, if you are so concerned about the polar bears, we have a technology we should be replicating around the world especially to those 1600 coal plants in china.

https://www.worldcoal.com/power/25012019/strong-year-for-ccs-at-boundary-dam-power-plant/

The carbon tax is a fools errand meant to reel in closet socialists. It will do zero to save the environment, ramp up costs of living causing people to cut back on non-essentials including retail spending. You will see that in the GDP numbers next.

#99 Elcheapo on 03.03.19 at 8:25 am

Hey there #96 David Driven….dial it back about 30% there superchief. You’re spare parts bud.

#100 Willy H on 03.03.19 at 9:04 am

The truth is that this oil is worth more if simply left in the ground. We need to develop a method of extraction that does not leave a trillion dollar environmental liability on our nation’s balance sheet.

The process of extracting this oil from bitumen is an environmental abomination. Using a clean burning natural gas (clean energy) to boil vast amounts of fresh water to extract low grade oil (dirty energy) and sell it off at bargain basement prices.

This resource (the tar sands) was developed without a business model or thirsty markets in which to sell low grade oil. We put the cart before the horse. Amateurish strategic industrial policy at best.

We can certainly agree that politicians at all levels have created this situation. Canadian governments have done a great job of ensuring that we continue to be the “hewers of wood and drawers of water” while we sell off our successful value-add sector to foreign interests.

Is short-term tar sands economic growth worth this:

https://environmentaldefence.ca/report/albertas-tailings-ponds/

https://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2018/05/15/Oil-Sands-Tailing-Ponds-Time-Bomb/

https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2018/11/23/Alberta-Policy-Problems/

We cannot just focus on the P/L (income statement) and shareholder returns. We have to focus on the B/S balance sheet.

Anyone with a cursory knowledge of the extraction industry knows full well that once the tar sands reserves are spent the oil companies will “cut and run” leaving the Canadian tax payer holding the bag.

Toronto is arguably, the mining capital of the world and any Bay street analyst worth their salt is fully aware (off the record) of how this industry operates in Canada and around the world.

This is the real national disgrace:

https://www.miningwatch.ca/about

On a positive note, there are signs that the mining industry is beginning to change on the environment but we are a long way off from meaningful results and regulatory policy.

#101 AB Boxster on 03.03.19 at 9:14 am

Ryan,

Thanks for pointing out the value of this industry to Canada and Albertan’s in particular.

Unfortunately, our province is being sacrificed on the altar of global warming hypocrisy by the left.

The same fools that proclaim their undying love of the environment, and their horror of Canadian energy production, are the same morons that eco-travel all over the world via cruise ship and airplane.

They herald their earth saving vegan lifestyles, yet consume products that have to be shipped by massive diesel trucks from all over the world at great carbon output.

They decry such unwoke industries as beef production as unsustainable, all the while keeping their 4 cats that consume more meat in their diets than the average human being. Fluffy needs premium cat food don’t you know.

And they take pride in their wokeness and progressiveness by heralding electric cars, whose batteries use rare earths that are mined using some of the worst mining practices on the earth.

And of course they are rabid recyclers, much of which is just taken and dropped off into the third world shitholes to became someone elses problem.

They actually believe that when they buy the newest and greatest iphone, that their old one is ‘environmentally recycled’ to the highest standards.

And they cry ‘save the Orcas’ when Alberta looks to add 1 more ship using their harbour, yet say nothing as oil tankers from Alaska travel the coast every day, and as they increase their pleasure boat, whale watching boat, and ferry traffic in vastly higher percentages.

Because somehow, only boats carrying Alberta oil to market, really piss off the whales, yet boats carrying coal to China, are perfectly OK.

Oh, and lets not forget the massive volumes of human shit that they pump into their oceans on a daily basis. I’m sure the Orcas thrive on that stuff.

Nope, unfortunately you can’t fix stupid.
And Canada has it in excess.

Yet Alberta will soon elect a government that will stand up for this province.

We will kick to the curb the eco-terrorist NDP idealists that pretend to care about the Alberta oil industry in order to preserve their entitlements.

Should junior be re-elected and policies against Alberta and Albertans continue, well if you think Canada is divided along regions now, you ain’t seen nothing yet.

#102 Penny Henny on 03.03.19 at 9:16 am

#34 The Real Mark on 03.02.19 at 5:57 pm
Nothing wrong with foreign companies selling their O&G assets to Canadian companies at a discount. We’ve heard for years that foreigners are coming to take Canada’s O&G away cheap, and to earn all the profits. This is an epic opportunity to “re-Canadianize” the business so that Canadians have control of our destiny and the use of Canadian content is assured. Instead of the often internationally acquired content.

Additionally, most of the sales are being done at fire sale prices, so Canadian firms are getting great deals on the assets. Why would anyone be against this? Its hardly a disgrace that Canadian companies are solidifying their own asset bases using their cashflows instead of just leaving their cash to idle.

As far as “revenue losses to discounts”, much of that chart is exaggerated. Most oil that comes out of the oilsands is contracted for on a long-term basis. The ‘discount’ is just to a relatively small quantity of incremental oil, which is often produced by junior companies.

Canada desperately needs to develop industry outside of O&G, resources, and housing. Cultural industries. Tourism. High end R&D (which has been absolutely decimated over the past 2 decades in the post-Nortel era). And yes, Energy East, Transmountain Expansion, and Keystone XL should be built to provide efficient access to North American markets. But the last thing Canada needs is more investment in upstream Alberta O&G given Canada’s dramatic situation of oversupply which would most definitely not be alleviated by pipelines.

//////////////

I never thought I would say this but I agree with most of what Mark has written.

#103 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.03.19 at 9:19 am

@#101 Figure it out

Conrad Black’s summation of our Canadian education system…..

“He counsels that we must “cherish our teachers.” In fact, our state education systems are often little better than ever-more costly unionized daycare centres, and the universities are a mass of under-employed subversive faculty members churning out discontented and under-educated youth generally unqualified to earn a living……”

Nailed it!

#104 Greg, Oakville on 03.03.19 at 9:28 am

A national (Canadian) disgrace indeed!

Even Egypt seems to be able to have figure it out, but not Canada. Why?
You’d think some sharp Canadian Engineering firm or sharp political mover and shaker could have figured it out by now, if we still have any???

“Egypt overhauls oil refineries in push to become regional energy hub.
Egypt, which produces 666,000 barrels of crude oil a day, has a refining capacity of 810,000 barrels a day.
Sunday 08/07/2018”
https://thearabweekly.com/egypt-overhauls-oil-refineries-push-become-regional-energy-hub

#105 not 1st on 03.03.19 at 9:33 am

#104 Penny Henny on 03.03.19 at 9:16 am
—–

Did you not read my post above. Now you come with a socialized view of industry that looks like what Venezuala tried. Wow.

Canada is a POORLY CAPITALIZED country. Do you not get that? Our citazens wont commit our own capital to the cause because our people are too busy selling condos to each other, so we HAVE to have foreign investment.

Good god.

#106 not 1st on 03.03.19 at 9:38 am

#102 Willy H on 03.03.19 at 9:04 am
—–

Have you seen a mine in another part of the world?

See how they mine rare earth elements for your phone computer and solar panels once. Geez get out of your bubble.

And here has whats been done to Ontario. Progressives can own that too. Congratulations, we are all poorer as a result.

https://business.financialpost.com/commodities/mining/theyve-lost-it-ontario-falls-sharply-in-ranking-of-mining-jurisdictions-saskatchewan-tops-in-canada

#107 Island dave on 03.03.19 at 10:00 am

Thinking forward to the next election.. anyone on the board know much about Andrew Sheers background? Has he ever been active outside politics,as in holding a job, running a business etc
Tia
Dave

#108 Steven Rowlandson on 03.03.19 at 10:08 am

When you have government elected on the basis of unlimited spending on PC, social programs, drug legalization and a devil may care attitude about debt what do you expect? Canada is not interested in truth, fiscal and moral rectitide or accomplishment. No sir! Far too many want to consume no matter what the cost or debt and they want instant gratification. Canada like its allies needs a reality check in the worst way and it best be done soon before disaster makes correcting the problems constructively impossible.

#109 Shawn Allen on 03.03.19 at 10:08 am

Are there subsidies to the oil and gas industries?

#65 Dave on 03.02.19 at 8:42 pm claimed:

The Canadian Oil and Gas industry gets more subsidies than any other G7 nation with over 3 billion a year. Funny how you didn’t even mention this.

*********************************
Is there truth to this?

I have lived in Alberta for almost 30 years and I spend hours on investments each day. But I don’t look much at energy companies. Very occasionally I have but I don’t claim much knowledge of the industry.

I simply can’t recall much if anything in the way of direct subsidies to the oil and gas extraction industry by either the Alberta government or the feds. And I follow the news.

I AM aware that the oil sands gets vastly reduced royalties until their capital costs are paid off. And with new capital spending this meant very little to no royalties for years (decades even). The system was changed some years ago to prevent the royalties from staying too close to zero. Are low royalties a subsidy? I believe the fact is, the oil sands simply can’t bear heavy royalties because it is high cost oil.

The right to extract the oil sands and other oil and gas I understand is sold off (this is in addition to royalties) at whatever the market will bear at any time.

The industry surely benefits from accelerated depreciation / depletion that lowers income tax.

But where are the direct subsidies?

It is sometimes claimed Harper went all-in promoting or supporting the energy industry. How so?

#110 Stratovarious on 03.03.19 at 10:10 am

Finally, a blunt, intelligent statement about Canadian oil. What makes this situation even more ludicrous is that Canada will not prevent oil from being used even if it chooses to stop all drilling and production. Rather, the oil will be provided by countries like Nigeria, who have no environmental regulations. So in the end, the atmosphere will have the exact same amount of CO2 with or without Canadian production. However, Canada will have a much weaker currency, higher overall costs, and a lower living standard, which apparently is the goal of the NDP and T2.

#111 jess on 03.03.19 at 10:19 am

act more responsibly

fossil fuel-funded think tanks.
https://grist.org/article/pro-trump-billionaires-continue-to-bankroll-climate-denial/

“Shell and Eni always denied that bribery was involved. But an Italian court already ruled that both companies
knew the money was being channeled to the company of a controversial former oil minister in Nigeria.

The Italian courts already convicted multiple people in this case, according to NOS

https://nltimes.nl/2019/03/01/shell-prosecuted-bribery-nigeria

=====
high school students working with PBS NewsHour’s Student Reporting Labs in Morgantown, West Virginia, set out to find out what “opportunity” looks like in 2019, they quickly zoomed in on pipeline jobs.

Student Reporters in West Virginia Find Atlantic Coast Pipeline Offers Only Two Dozen Permanent Jobs
Read time: 7 mins

=====

“My generation is the one that’s going to deal with this catastrophe that’s impending. What is it that you are doing to prevent carbon dioxide emissions?” he asked the Arizona Republican.

“Unfortunately you haven’t been taught about photosynthesis,” Gosar replied. “Photosynthesis is where plants take carbon dioxide to produce oxygen. That’s a problem in today’s world. We haven’t taught kids exactly what’s going on in America and in science.”

https://grist.org/article/republican-representative-paul-gosar-suggests-that-photosynthesis-discredits-climate-change/

=

May 19, 2017 – Drinking water around an oil-producing area in South Sudan is heavily polluted. A German NGO puts the blame on Malaysian oil company

Oil companies face deadline to stop polluting California groundwater

https://psmag.com/environment/california-oil-field-waste-is-threatening-water-supplies

#112 jess on 03.03.19 at 10:38 am

erase the disgrace

Andreas Neocleous, the founder of a Cypriot law firm which was found guilty of bribing a former deputy attorney general, acquired a stake in the Cyprus Mail, one of the few remaining independent media on the island. Almost immediately, the paper deleted its coverage of the bribery conviction from its website….

…”The lawyer founded Andreas Neocleous & Co LLC, a firm that included among its clientele the Russian billionaire Dmitry Rybolovlev, who was charged with bribery in Monaco. Rybolovlev was once the biggest shareholder of the Bank of Cyprus.

Attorney-general Costas Clerides ordered in 2015 a probe into allegations that Neocleous’ law firm had bribed former deputy attorney-general Rikkos Erotokritou.”

https://www.occrp.org/en/27-ccwatch/cc-watch-briefs/9301-founder-of-disgraced-cypriot-law-firm-buys-the-cyprus-mail

#113 expat on 03.03.19 at 10:40 am

Which people get prison terms in 12 years when this scam turns out to be just that?

I’ve never heard anyone even mention this action.

Any other group that proposed such ideas that failed to materialize were charged with fraud..

SO LETS DO SO>>
Tell them they will be imprisoned in 12 years if this prediction fails to happen.

I can assure you – the maunder minimum is a far greater threat than farting cows.

We will be here in 12 years.

The lunacy of the Left is simply taken as gospel its the strangest thing I have ever seen

#114 baloney Sandwitch on 03.03.19 at 10:42 am

I am not some “drill baby drill” person but …..yada yada. I put it this statement in the same category as,
I am not a crook but …
I am not a racist but …

“The lady doth protest too much, methinks.” – Macbeth.

#115 KLNR on 03.03.19 at 10:43 am

@#74 Not 1st on 03.02.19 at 9:58 pm
#65

Simply answered, no it’s not. The energy industry is a full 10% of our GDP not even counting the spin off effects and depreciation and CCA are not subsidies.

Look you can learn something everyday. And you should learn what supports your economy and your social programs.
_____________________________

yes the energy sector as a whole.
the guy did say oil and gas which is indeed around 2% of the gdp you crusty [email protected]

#116 KLNR on 03.03.19 at 10:45 am

@#98 not 1st on 03.03.19 at 7:19 am
#85 To Hell with Alberta on 03.02.19 at 11:40 pm
—-

Sorry you are so mad. We will try to get the dirty oil cheques out to you faster next time.
______________________________

pot meet kettle

#117 Classroom For Ryan on 03.03.19 at 11:04 am

The young kids are taught how the system works, so take your seat. You want to lower CO2 emissions on us all – no thanks!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UPBMG5EYydo

#118 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.03.19 at 11:14 am

@#111 Figure it out
“What kind of a hack media outlet prints a book review by someone with an enormous personal grudge?”
+++++

While your infatuation with all things “Conrad” is impressive you should seek to relieve your Heart of Darkness and relax.

Is Conrad Black still on the board at the “hack media outlet National Post?

#119 Shawn Allen on 03.03.19 at 11:18 am

Penny Henny at 104 agrees with Real Mark at 34!

Please don’t tell him, but I agree too. Upstream oil and gas was vastly over-invested in ahead of pipelines causing the glut and low prices. Not such a bad thing for Canadian companies to buy these assets at pennies on the dollar. I have said for years that the existing producers should have been attempting to beat off any proposed new investment with a stick.

#120 Not 1st on 03.03.19 at 11:22 am

#118 KLNR on 03.03.19

——-

Guess Starbucks isn’t open yet in the bubble. Maybe hit the pot shop too on the way by. Complete your ignorance about the Canadian economy.

I’m still waiting for those high tech green jobs that are ready to replace the oil industry.

#121 Ryan Has It Wrong on 03.03.19 at 11:23 am

The largest greenhouse operations in North America are located in Canada. Ryan needs to go down there and tell the mega farmers that they must stop pumping CO2 into their farming operations because these emissions must be lowered to save the planet. He will be shown the door quickly, and laughed out of town.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=44CFmh7Dgs0

#122 KLNR on 03.03.19 at 11:24 am

@#108 not 1st on 03.03.19 at 9:38 am
#102 Willy H on 03.03.19 at 9:04 am
—–

Have you seen a mine in another part of the world?

See how they mine rare earth elements for your phone computer and solar panels once. Geez get out of your bubble.

And here has whats been done to Ontario. Progressives can own that too. Congratulations, we are all poorer as a result.

https://business.financialpost.com/commodities/mining/theyve-lost-it-ontario-falls-sharply-in-ranking-of-mining-jurisdictions-saskatchewan-tops-in-canada
___________________________

why are all your arguments of the strawman type?

#123 Sierts on 03.03.19 at 11:32 am

I tend to think, we should start to take the CO2 problem seriously, when they start to call for banning Carbonic acid (H2CO3) in beer, soft drinks, champain and mineral water.
That stuff consists to 60% of CO2 and is very widely produced and consumed.
Banning it would have a worldwide impact on the CO2 “pollution”.

As long, as nobody crusades against these drinks, the problem can’t be grave.

#124 Shawn Allen on 03.03.19 at 11:34 am

Should “We” be in favor of oil and gas development?

Depends a lot on who you decide your particular “we” on this issue is

We oil workers?

We Albertans?

We Quebecois

We Canadians?

We Canadian government workers who consider our jobs and pensions to be safe no matter what?

We native Canadians?

We humans?

At the end of the day people tend to support development that they see as definitely or probably directly benefiting themselves and their family. If no benefit to them and even a grain of possible harm, people tend to oppose.

The less you are directly benefited or the less you perceive even an indirect benefit of oil and gas the more you tend to oppose or at least not support.

Newsflash: people are self-centered.

#125 yvrmc on 03.03.19 at 11:44 am

To be clear ,CO2 does not cause warming. It is a by product of warming oceans. The earth and its oceans have been warming and cooling for millions of years, and will continue to do so. There is a 20-30 year cycle that occurs naturally. Since 1998 we have been in a cooling trend and will continue to be for awhile longer. The 1 degree increase in temperature that has occurred over the last 100 years is again normal and in keeping with historical trends occurring over many hundreds of years. Do we need to clean up the planet ? Of course we we do its only prudent to do so. Are we the cause of climate change ? Not a hope . The sky is not falling despite what many would try to tell you….

#126 Wild Roasted Albertan on 03.03.19 at 12:09 pm

And another one delayed again….

https://calgaryherald.com/business/energy/enbridge-pipeline-delayed-one-year-big-hit-to-alberta-oil-industry/wcm/b9b04027-103f-4e00-bf3a-10aad36a7cf2

#127 Remembrancer on 03.03.19 at 12:24 pm

#112 Shawn Allen on 03.03.19 at 10:08 am
Are there subsidies to the oil and gas industries?

#65 Dave on 03.02.19 at 8:42 pm claimed:
——————————————————-
Probably a reference to things like this:

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/11/15/oil-subsidies-canada-anti-carbon-tax_n_12990020.html

and this:

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2018/07/03/canada-oil-gas-subsidies-g7_a_23473843/

As an example, de facto subsidies like R&D or exploration tax credits become ritualised as annual inducements and won’t make anybody’s news when they happen, company’s just collect the benefits. You’d need to get through the fine print of expenditures for things like that, capital cost claims, training grants, northern tax exemptions etc etc to confirm. It is an working example of the suck and blow argument though against virtue signalling government officials’ holier than thou lectures on resource extraction…

#128 DON on 03.03.19 at 12:32 pm

#123 Not 1st on 03.03.19 at 11:22 am

#118 KLNR on 03.03.19

——-

Guess Starbucks isn’t open yet in the bubble. Maybe hit the pot shop too on the way by. Complete your ignorance about the Canadian economy.

I’m still waiting for those high tech green jobs that are ready to replace the oil industry.
*******************

Then again back in the day a old cowboy said the same about the car and horse situation.

As technology advances so do we and we can revisit. Ryan has a point – use the oil proceeds to set up a new green economy. Maybe take away some subsidies as peak oil did not occur. And legislate that the carbon tax and oil taxes be put into those projects/jobs rather than going into general revenue. So we will to put rules in place (no loop holes) as we obviously can’t trust the ethics of ruling parties with a majority. Problem solved no more majorities and elect the PM not appoint one from a ruling party.

#129 technical analysis?? on 03.03.19 at 12:33 pm

didnt you write about this months ago. you sound like a broken record. who cares. this was a problem 20 years ago when they knew oil production was going to ramp up. today, its too late. go cry about something else.

#130 Dr D. on 03.03.19 at 12:40 pm

Never commented before despite following this blog for years. Your Saturday article was one of the best I have ever read. Thanks Ryan

#131 DON on 03.03.19 at 12:44 pm

Also if we build the pipelines (which I think we should) do we have customers for the extra oil – in a world where new reserves are being found what seems to be every couple of months. China just found more in the yellow sea just to name but one example.

Why not refine more and make it easier for Canadians to be more competitive? Hmmm Petro Canada?

#132 Willy H on 03.03.19 at 1:00 pm

#127 Shawn Allen on 03.03.19 at 11:34 am
Should “We” be in favor of oil and gas development?

Depends a lot on who you decide your particular “we” on this issue is

Newsflash: people are self-centered.
__ __ __ __ __

Your point is well taken.

Fishermen (Fisherfolk if your politically correct!) want to fish regardless of stocks, regardless of the long-term consequences to fish stocks, and sometimes, even to the point of wiping out the entire resource!

We humans are capable of amazing foresight and the ability to use rational thought to make good choices for today and future generations.

However, 2 million years of evolution have programmed us to interact with the planets’ ecosystems for short-term gain, basic survival.

#133 Colin Knudsen on 03.03.19 at 1:08 pm

I am having a tough time understanding that when we add pipelines, which add more supply our price will go up? I have heard that we are producing too much so the prices are being discounted and having alberta reduce their barrels produced has somewhat increased the price.

My other confusion lies in the fact that we are tied to selling to the US markets which I understand that if we have more supply then we can ship to asia and get a greater price. What the fuck is stopping us now?

Any clarification or resources that answer these questions would be appreciated.

#134 George on 03.03.19 at 1:31 pm

You nailed it Ryan. Thanks – great article – best so far!

Most of our (current) leaders don’t have the wisdom or business sense to understand that this valuable resource could be used to create a country that is a leader in renewable energy technology.

We spend so much time with competing ideologies that we cant see the potential our country has.

Why should Canada with all our (stored) wealth be continuously skidding sideways?

George

#135 Efficient Farming on 03.03.19 at 2:13 pm

Another operation somewhere increasing efficiency using CO2.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lqfmm7DZpyg
Everybody knows or should become aware that CO2 provides our vegetables with food, and gives us back O2 in exchange for humanity to breathe, and any reduction in CO2 leads humanity into an unhealthy condition, and a loss of food production of at least 30%.

#136 The Great Gazoo on 03.03.19 at 2:14 pm

The top five oil producing counties are the US at 15.6 mln b/d, Saudi Arabia at 12.1 mln, Russia at 11.2 mln, Canada at 4.9 mln and China at 4.8 mln.

Ryan, the number you quoted for US oil production is incorrect.

US crude oil production as of Nov, 18 is 11.9 million bbls/d according to the US Energy Information Administration 914 report. The “914” report is considered the gold standard on US production numbers used by industry experts.

https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/production/#oil-tab

#137 Shawn Allen on 03.03.19 at 2:17 pm

Oil and Gas subsidies are in the eye of the beholder

Remembrancer at 130 politely responded to me including

“As an example, de facto subsidies like R&D or exploration tax credits become ritualised as annual inducements and won’t make anybody’s news when they happen, … capital cost claims, training grants, northern tax exemptions

*********************

Good points so oil and gas industry gets certain benefits like sometimes lower royalties, exploration tax credits, accelerated depreciation, maybe R&D credits. … training grants, northern tax exemptions .

Most of these reduce income taxes.

Whether a lower income tax or a lower royalty is a “subsidy” depends basically entirely on what you want the answer to be.

If an oil development adds to taxes but at a lower than normal rate is that a subsidy or just a lower benefit to the government? It can be argued either way.

Personally, I don’t see a ton of direct government subsidies to the oil and gas producers. I know the Alberta government still collects huge royalties and income taxes and the feds collect big income taxes most years.

Clearly the economy is better off with (even subsidized) oil and gas. The environment not so much. No end to this debate.

Most of

#138 TheDood on 03.03.19 at 2:23 pm

#60 Ustabe on 03.02.19 at 8:16 pm

Until we start finding and electing citizens with resumes germane to the running of the country and leaving the career politicians behind it will remain same old, same old regardless of party in power…..

______________________________

Couldn’t agree with you more. All the “smart” people get educated and go south or overseas, and this will not end soon. Our kids and their friends are all finishing their degrees soon and all of them are already looking at better options outside of Canada. Its too expensive to live here, and as Garth has pointed out many times, hard work and education are punished in Canada, not rewarded, so its sayonara. Who can blame them. Meanwhile, the dummies are left behind, and a drama teacher is judged qualified to run the country.

#139 Crazyfox on 03.03.19 at 2:26 pm

Its not as cut and dried as you make it out to be. Sure, we’ve lost opportunities in the past to make tens of billions as you point out but its not entirely Canada’s fault. The U.S. has been the big beneficiary of low WCS extra heavy crude prices for a reason. Keystone pipeline was supposed to be built 10 years ago and has been delayed largely because they are getting our oil on the cheap coupled with increased U.S. oil production filling their own pipelines and we get to watch it, blaming ourselves but it isn’t entirely our fault. U.S. stalling of Keystone has delayed Canadian pipeline construction forcing us to look overseas for new markets and the Liberal government has stepped up buying Trans mountain but tried to use old Harper environmental policies to ram trans mountain through in large part because they didn’t have time to revise old proposals from the Harper era and it obviously didn’t work. There’s a chance it could have passed through the courts quickly, it didn’t happen all of what, 7months ago? Look for Trans mountain to be approved this year or next easing some of the pressure and look for histrionics from Canadian oil industry execs and BNN until that time as it is now. Sadly, predictable I might add.

Nor is it entirely Canada’s fault for climate change and that’s the big elephant in the room. Money or should I say, the love of money (greed) is blinding. So blinding, $$$ worshipers will dismiss the legitimacy of man made climate change and its threat with the wave of a hand so in that light, I’ll explain it so even the mind of a child can understand.

The world is 1.1 degree’s C warmer than it was in 1850. This doesn’t seem like much, but temperatures are warming 3 times more on land than ocean, an overlooked fact since the ocean covers 71% of the planet. Combine this with the fact that the planet is twice as warm in mid latitudes and 3 times warmer than than the equator, and the arctic is a whopping 4 times warmer at the highest latitudes than the equator… and we have an Arctic that is warming 12 times warmer than it used to be on land in daylight hours compared to the world average.

Why is the Arctic warming so much faster? Because its green house gases on steroids. If you’ve ever traveled near the equator, one of the things Canadians will notice is the sun sits up quite high, almost above us in mid day with its rays coming down at a 70 degree trajectory to the equator or nearly straight down on us. Most of the light gets absorbed and the rest bounces of mostly out to space but that’s not what happens in the Arctic. The sunlight comes in at a 10 to 20 degree angle and as a consequence, goes through 3 to 4 times the atmospheric thickness on the way in and if the light skips off the surface of the earth, 3 to 4 times the atmospheric thickness on the way out or ping pongs its way back to the surface again and out if it can escape. As the light travels through all this extra atmosphere, it has to get through the gauntlet of the ever increasing GHG’s, warming up the atmosphere and heating the Arctic like a convection oven.

My point? Anyone who dismisses climate change as simply natural and not man made is either willfully blind (as in greedy and ignorant) or, y’know, simple. Perhaps more mentally challenged than a child. But then, to the defense of the slow on the take, scientists don’t make for great public speakers and tend to get lost in the detail and they tend to stay in their lane a bit too much. If, for example, they realized that if you insult someone’s intelligence or morality, you might get their attention enough to make your point and the point is that we’ve already lost Greenland. The ice is in 100% deficit meaning there is more ice melting than there is being reformed by snow accumulation across the entire region of Greenland. The only question that remains is how quickly it melts.

We are poised to go to 1.5 C above pre industrial somewhere between 2034 and 2038 adding another .4 degrees of global average increase or 4.8C of Arctic increase on land. Why is that such a big concern? Melting permafrost and the threat of a methane burst if temperatures get high enough to rot the thawing dead plant and animal matter in marshland. If temps get high enough…. like higher than 20 degrees C sustained in water saturated Arctic soils, the threat of an unexpected global temperature rise from methane exponentiates and no pipe dream of tarsand resource expansion to generate tax revenues that will magically end up greening Canada through wind or solar (you didn’t really expect us to believe that one did you Ryan?) is going to mitigate this growing threat.

But i digress.

Energy East is a dead proposition when one considers what bitumen, heavily refined to be mere extra heavy crude actually is. The cracking and coking of bitumen to dilbit is far more carbon intensive (and expensive) than it looks. Bitumen extraction alone is average 18% C02 emissions by weight and according to Suncor’s refinery emissions chart on their website the average emissions is a further 42% C02 emissions by weight meaning there is 60% C02 emissions before their feedstock reaches a pipeline for downstream use and what is that feed stock for Suncor? Roughly 40% synthetic crude and the rest in products like Asphalt which is actually a good carbon sink and a product the world will need in a green powered, electrified transport world (70% C02 footprint by weight if anyone cares). But the idea of trying to actually refine extra heavy crude into gas and oil is again… quite lame. The carbon intensity and extra refining costs associated with extra heavy crude compared to light crude… if we’re going to be dumb enough to burn it and knowingly continue to warm the globe to our peril, it makes far more sense to use light crude.

So forget about energy east. Oil sand crude is not the right feed stock to even remotely consider it. Light crude production, sure but heavy? It makes no sense. Consider the downstream use extra heavy crude presents in the first place, not just from upstream and downstream C02 emissions but from usage and you will see why Suncor and CNRL has been so successful and why any other oil corp under the sun can’t just walk in an duplicate what they do and muscle in on incumbant market share. They don’t refine feedstock intended for gas and diesel for a reason. If it was so easy considering the cost and the environment, we would be doing it.

Don’t worry so much about the lost opportunities of the past either. The Americans played us and our so called best flavor for government (Harper gov) didn’t set the gold standard by any means on how to handle it. What Trudeau did by buying Trans mountain and trying to ram it through the courts with the chance that it might work, most others would have tried the same thing. It didn’t go through the courts so you get your proposals tight and try again. Simple. All the rest of the grumbling and complaining and laments from lost opportunities of the past and noise about $$$ and oil corps leaving Canada, its histrionics. Noise. Misplaced emotion. A failure to more fully understand the issues. A complete failure to understand what happens if we all just… get our way. Climate change is a far bigger threat to us than shitty performance in an energy sector.

Investors want to be smart? Make money? Take a look at what the electrification of transportation will do to the price of oil. It doesn’t take rocket science to see how that will end:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TRcx-btcle4&t=3787s

And, from an environmentalist/survivalist point of view, it doesn’t take rocket science to see how it will play out with more business as usual. Adapt… or die.

#140 IHCTD9 on 03.03.19 at 2:40 pm

A practical examination of the whole climate change issue very quickly reveals all of the noise is a colossal waste of time an effort – if cleaning up the planet is the goal.

I don’t need to explain any further, anyone who’s put any honest thought into it already knows it’s a waste of time – no matter if we’re doomed or not. Nothing is going to get cleaned up anywhere. Carbon taxes will disappear into general revenues and be used for who knows what. Almost no one will take the initiative to analyze their own personal C02 emmisions with an eye to lower them. Near zero sacrifices will be made. Canada is loaded with folks who can’t stop consuming even after they go into the red, and it’s still never enough.

Here is the only plan that can work: If you’re concerned about carbon emissions, change the way you live in order to lower the amount of carbon you emit to what you think is a good sustainable level.

Everyone else can just keep driving their F350’s to work every day.

If this plan (which 100% will lower C02 emissions) is not good enough, then C02 levels will only increase no matter what the government of Canada does.

Again, this applies only if the goal is to lower carbon output…

#141 jess on 03.03.19 at 2:57 pm

28 yvrmc on 03.03.19 at 11:44 am

Predicting the Future

Good scientific theories are said to have ‘predictive power’. In other words, armed only with a theory, we should be able to make predictions about a subject. If the theory’s any good, the predictions will come true.

Here’s an example: when the Table of Elements was proposed, many elements were yet to be discovered. Using the theory behind the Periodic Table, the Russian chemist Dmitri Mendeleev was able to predict the properties of germanium, gallium and scandium, despite the fact they hadn’t been discovered.

The effect of adding man-made CO2 is predicted in the theory of greenhouse gases. This theory was first proposed by Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius in 1896, based on earlier work by Fourier and Tyndall. Many scientist have refined the theory in the last century. Nearly all have reached the same conclusion: if we increase the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, the Earth will warm up.”

read more @
https://www.skepticalscience.com/empirical-evidence-for-co2-enhanced-greenhouse-effect.htm

#142 Remembrancer on 03.03.19 at 2:59 pm

#136 Colin Knudsen on 03.03.19 at 1:08 pm
I am having a tough time understanding that when we add pipelines, which add more supply our price will go up? I have heard that we are producing too much so the prices are being discounted and having alberta reduce their barrels produced has somewhat increased the price.

>> There is only one viable direction to ship – south
>> and the price is being set by the customer
>> essentially due to no competition.

My other confusion lies in the fact that we are tied to selling to the US markets which I understand that if we have more supply then we can ship to asia and get a greater price. What the fuck is stopping us now?

>> No pipeline to move in greater volume, west to
>> tidewater (fancy way to say Pacific ocean port &
>> environmental blockage etc etc…

#143 KLNR on 03.03.19 at 3:19 pm

@#123 Not 1st on 03.03.19 at 11:22 am
#118 KLNR on 03.03.19

——-

Guess Starbucks isn’t open yet in the bubble. Maybe hit the pot shop too on the way by. Complete your ignorance about the Canadian economy.

I’m still waiting for those high tech green jobs that are ready to replace the oil industry.
___________________________

lol, why do you keep droning on about starbucks?
Are you one of smoking mans alter egos?
the nonsense coming out of you is similar.

#144 rookie57 on 03.03.19 at 3:33 pm

Whoever controls the narrative on Climate Change (Global Warming) has failed to provide all the facts. It is like a smear campaign, focus on the smearing the “deniers” rather than addressing all the facts. The fact that CBC still uses Mann (the hockey stick guy) as a reference speaks loudly of this. Mann was exposed as altering the “hockey stick” data but he is still held by CBC as an expert. You don’t see them using any “deniers” though. Fossil Fuels are the main target of the Climate Change Mafia. They are largely succeeding in there smear campaign as evidenced by governments adopting anti- fossil fuel regulations and pro-“clean energy” funding. I believe that eventually the fear campaign will be defused as more and more research into actual climate change is completed. It will be a painful process as Canada’s oil and gas business will bear most of the pain until facts and public opinion change the narrative.

By the way, I believe in true Climate Change. That is, it can change to a warmer climate or to a colder climate, depending upon the cycle of the sun.

#145 Albertistan on 03.03.19 at 3:44 pm

Regarding posts glorifying Norways intelligent use of oil revenue.
You do realize that Norway is a sovereign nation and does not send equalization payments to Italy and Greece.

#146 E4me on 03.03.19 at 3:52 pm

As a retired consumer I am tired of getting hosed at the pump everytime I go to fill up here in Canada and for all of 2018 gave my business to Washington State where there is a sticker on the pump that tells me for every gallon I pump the State and Federal Governments share 67.8 cents a gallon. Herein Canada they hide the numbers. So for all that oil we have in the ground don’t expect any deals from our Governments but just a bunch of hidden tax numbers.

#147 Marcus on 03.03.19 at 4:06 pm

Suddenly this blog becomes Nationalist when your govt starts giving away it’s control over Oil. “Well THAT escalated quickly.” Nationalism WILL triumph over the false song of Globalism. You will need to rip them out by the roots but it will be worth it Canada.

#148 Figmund Sreud on 03.03.19 at 4:15 pm

#136: My other confusion lies in the fact that we are tied to selling to the US markets which I understand that if we have more supply then we can ship to asia and get a greater price. What the **** is stopping us now?
……………………………………………………

Oil shipped through the pipelines, on trains, trucks and what have you is not our oil. We, Canadians, don’t own it. It is oil that is own by corporations. Canada does not sell oil out of the country, … at least not since PetroCanada went public.

Anyway, … look into Koch Industries in Canada. A classic example of how oil from Canada is treated, … er, traded:
https://www.kochind.com/search

Best,

F.S.

#149 Ryan Lewenza on 03.03.19 at 4:39 pm

Colin Knudsen “I am having a tough time understanding that when we add pipelines, which add more supply our price will go up? My other confusion lies in the fact that we are tied to selling to the US markets which I understand that if we have more supply then we can ship to asia and get a greater price.”

Our oil is landlocked and can only be shipped by pipelines/rail cars to one buyer (US). Given our lack of pipeline capacity and only having one buyer our oil trades at an unnecessary discount. If we add pipeline capacity we will be able to ship more oil to the US and oversees buyers. This will help to narrow the discount. Increasing our supply may have a small negative impact on global oil prices (WTI and Brent) but the narrowing discount of our oil price (WCS) and WTI will more than offset this. Keep it simple, if we can increase buyers of our oil this will lower the discount. To do this we need the Trans Mountain pipeline. – Ryan L

#150 Ex-Cowtown on 03.03.19 at 5:12 pm

Only then will they win some trust and a willing ear from those of us who see further oil and gas development as insanity.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Says the type of person who just got back from an eco-tour of Costa Rica and most certainly didn’t walk there.

I recently spoke with an guide who hosted a wealthy and well known film maker on a bear filming expedition. The film maker was fancied himself an eco-warrior, determined to show how oil development was killing the bears.

To his credit, the ersatz eco-warrior put his money where his mouth is, shunning such fossil fueled conveniences such as boat motors and generators, and refused help from the local oil company to drive across their oil leases to get on location. Instead he insisted on row boats to float the river to access the bear habitat and on solar and wind generators to power his multi-million dollar camera equipment.

True to the Gore Effect, the trip turned into a cross between a shambles and a debacle when Mother Nature refused to cooperate; it rained, snowed and was over cast. Batteries drained, equipment got wet and there was no way to dry it out. He was unable to get his equipment together to take even a single image.

Once the debacle was complete it became apparent that the only safe and sane course was to abandon the project and retreat to civilization.

It would have been possible to de-mob the project with a half-ton truck a half a tank of gas and haul him and his equipment across the oil company’s lands.

Instead, the well funded eco-warrior insisted on pick up via private float plane when it became clear that the expedition was a bust. Yup… can’t make that one up.

Same old, same old, every eco-warrior hates fossil fuels until they’re tired, wet, cold , hungry, cranky or feeling unsafe.

Then they scream for the 7th Airborne Cav for a dustoff and a hot shower.

Ever has it been so.

#151 Ex-Cowtown on 03.03.19 at 5:36 pm

Prediction #1: Jason Kenney wins Alberta election

Prediction #2: Jason Kenney talks the oil companies into turning off the pipeline to BC for a week.

Prediction #3: BC’s permanent adolescents fold in under three days and scream for a pipeline when it becomes clear that they’ll miss their flights to Nairobi and won’t be able to climb Mount Kilimanjaro on the summer solistice.

Being cold, wet and hungry makes you grow up in a hurry.

#152 Remembrancer on 03.03.19 at 5:59 pm

#149 E4me on 03.03.19 at 3:52 pm

Here in Ontario the tax distribution is on a sticker on the pump…

#153 Transmountain Pipeline on 03.03.19 at 6:07 pm

You must be joking because its going to the wrong port which was discussed at length here on this blog. Ryan research the facts.

#154 John on 03.03.19 at 6:28 pm

Hilarious those environmentalists who are saying that Canada needs to promote the tourism industry. How the heck do they think tourists get to their destinations??? I don’t see too many solar or wind-powered planes or boats. These radical environmentalists really need to think before spouting out their nonsense.

#155 Figmund Sreud on 03.03.19 at 7:41 pm

Some statistical reality links on Port of Vancouver shipments of oil ‘n such in this piece:

https://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2018/02/23/Fantasies-Keep-Pipeline-Plans-Alive/

… and yes, it’s an opinion piece but very well grounded!

Enjoy,

F.S. – Calgary, Alberta.

#156 Bashful renter on 03.04.19 at 2:21 am

Suddenly this blog becomes Nationalist when your govt starts giving away it’s control over Oil. “Well THAT escalated quickly.” Nationalism WILL triumph over the false song of Globalism. You will need to rip them out by the roots but it will be worth it Canada.

– that’s a keen observation #151. Nice job.

#157 Citizen on 03.04.19 at 10:50 am

You killed it this time – great blog Ryan

Ryan for PM!

#158 Michael on 03.04.19 at 12:53 pm

Amen.