Disrupted

DOUG  By Guest Blogger Doug Rowat

I’m not a fan of golf and don’t play; it’s one of the few Bay Street investment advisor clichés that I’ve actually managed to avoid. However, I’ve still heard of the 13th hole at the Augusta National Golf Club in Georgia, which is widely considered one of golf’s best and most challenging holes to play. It’s a 510-yard par-5 with a green that isn’t even visible for the first 270 yards.

However, because of advances in golf club and golf ball technology, particularly in recent years, it’s now become a lot less challenging. In fact, according to Sports Illustrated, the 13th hole at Augusta played as the easiest at the 2017 Masters. PGA Tour players now drive the ball an average of more than 295 yards, five more yards than just three years ago, so going for the green in two has become straightforward.

In other words, an iconic golf hole has been completely ‘disrupted’ by improving technology.

Disruptive technology, of course, doesn’t just affect the PGA Tour, it also regularly affects the stock market. A few examples:

Nokia was once the world’s largest and hippest cellphone manufacturer—Nokia phones were featured prominently in the first groundbreaking Matrix movie, for instance. However, once Apple’s much cooler iPhone was launched in 2007, it was game over for Nokia. Below is a 10-year comparison of their share price performances:

Disrupted: Nokia vs Apple – 10 years

Source: Bloomberg

VHS and DVD rentals were a damaging advancement for movie theatre chains, but they amounted to a minor inconvenience versus the vast array of movies that suddenly became available at low cost via a Netflix subscription. And, as the release dates between theatre launches and Netflix launches compressed, not to mention the release of more and more original Netflix content, things got even worse for movie exhibitors. Below is a five-year comparison of Cineplex and Netflix performances:

Disrupted: Cineplex vs Netflix – 5 years

Source: Bloomberg

Video games were once the sole domain of the big game developers who published in physical CD format and online competition was largely ignored by them. This changed almost instantly with the online release of the tournament-style shooter video game Fortnite. Fortnite was released in 2017 but rapidly gained traction and became a phenomenon less than a year later. Below is the performance of Activision Blizzard, Electronic Arts and Take-Two Interactive, a few of the world’s largest video game publishers, over just the past year:

Disrupted: Activision Blizzard, Electronic Arts & Take-Two Interactive – 1 year

Source: Bloomberg

A natural impulse is to look at these examples and conclude that the disruptive forces could have been easily predicted. And some investors, no doubt, correctly did. But the majority didn’t, which is why all of these ‘disrupted’ companies have so badly underperformed. Ultimately, it’s an impossible task to correctly forecast and time disruption.

But deluding oneself with I-knew-it-all-along thinking is a favourite investor pastime and brings me to the behavioural investing trait of hindsight bias. Hindsight bias occurs when an investor treats any past event as if it were a logical, obvious and easily predicted occurrence. And hindsight bias usually leads to overconfidence with respect to future investment decisions. Investors prone to hindsight bias also have a tendency to exaggerate how easily and far in advance one could have anticipated a particular future outcome. Like witnessing an investor tell people that they knew the iPhone would be invented the minute they saw Gordon Gekko call up Bud Fox on his Motorola DynaTac 8000X. And if you don’t believe hindsight bias exists, read the comments section and see how many posters will claim to have easily foreseen any of the above-mentioned disruptive technologies. But only they and their god know if this is true and if they actually profited from this foresight.

Forecasting is incredibly difficult and outcomes only seem obvious in retrospect. And if you think you can anticipate each and every disruptive market force, you’re mistaken. Nokia was once a great stock to own, but not after the release of the iPhone. But did you invest in Nokia only on the way up and then exit precisely as Steve Jobs walked across stage at the Macworld convention in January 2007? Probably not. It only seems obvious to have done so in hindsight.

Now, we recently increased boring health care exposure within many of our clients’ portfolios. Naturally, different kinds of disruption can also occur within the health care sector—a dramatic shift in government policy, for example—but we think that the beneficial long-term effects of an ageing global population minimizes this risk. However, an even more important way that we minimized the disruption risk was by purchasing a broadly diversified health care ETF, added at only a modest weight and held within an even more broadly diversified portfolio.

Recognizing how golf technology is advancing, Augusta varies and enlarges its course by frequently acquiring additional land. The club also constantly redesigns its course layout—lengthening holes, adding trees, bunkers, etc. The 13th hole won’t be easy to play for much longer.

In a sense, Augusta has employed the best of all defenses against disruption: diversification.

Doug Rowat, FCSI® is Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments and Senior Vice President, Private Client Group, Raymond James Ltd.

93 comments ↓

#1 For those about to flop... on 02.23.19 at 3:34 pm

CONFIRMED PINK SNOW.

This is the part where we revisit cases when they are officially entered into the database to see if anyone was talking porkies at sale time.

The details…

4469 w 7th ave,Vancouver.

Paid 3.9 May 2016

Sold for 3.6 November 2018

Originally asking 4.18

Assessment 3.51, down from 3.99

So roughly 12.5% or close to 500k after expenses.

No porkies, just pain…

M44BC

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/4469-west-7th-avenue

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDAwMDFBVw==

#2 For those about to flop... on 02.23.19 at 3:35 pm

CONFIRMED PINK SNOW.

This failed flip in East Van has been confirmed.

The details…

7215 Dumfries st,Vancouver.

Paid 2.28. May 2016

Sold 2.00 January 2019

Originally asking 2.58

Assessment 2.05 down from 2.15

These guys got paddled for over 17% or 400k…

M44BC

https://www.rew.ca/insights/142467/7215-dumfries-street-vancouver-bc

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDAwMkM1Sw==

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/7215-dumfries-street

#3 For those about to flop... on 02.23.19 at 3:36 pm

CONFIRMED PINK SNOW.

This house garnered a bit of media attention at one stage.

Did they follow through?

Nope.

Too hard.

The details…

2050 Russet Way,West Vancouver.

Paid 3 million April 2016

Sold 2.02 January 2019

Originally asking 3.98

Assessment 2.59, down from 3.06

Close to 40% after expenses or roughly 1.15 million.

Here’s your Million Dollar Baby.

Once again to reiterate this point, for the amount of money these guys lost you can buy a half- decent house in East Vancouver.

Heck, you can pay the bulk off a starter house in Kitsilano.

The Pink Mist was thick…

M44BC

https://www.zolo.ca/west-vancouver-real-estate/2050-russet-way

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDAyOTVBQg==

https://www.rew.ca/insights/54686/2050-russet-way-west-vancouver-bc

#4 Stan Brooks on 02.23.19 at 3:46 pm

No, a housing correction will not topple the banks. Ever hard of CMHC? And, yes, you are looking mighty foolish. – Garth

If CMHC ‘insurance’ is cancelled and mortgages moved back to the banks balance sheets some banks could be in very serious doo doo.

Banks are the cancer of this country and if their reckless backing at all cost does not stop, the whole country will go absolutely certainly down the drain with them.

I will not invest a single penny in such country, collapsing my accounts/investments in tax efficient manner.

The next big disrupted enterprises will be the Canadian banks along with the ‘economy’ itself.

The delusional sheeple will be obliterated. So diversify /out accordingly.

#5 Shawn Allen on 02.23.19 at 3:49 pm

Bank Bail-Ins

You are incorrect. Preferreds are not convertible into equity in a bail-in situation. Read the legislation. – Garth

************************************
Well, like Garth I am not worried about bank bail-ins. But I would not say there is a zero probability. Banks are highly leveraged. Anything highly leveraged can be risky.

On rate reset preferred shares bail-in I refer to, the following for example, from each of TD’s rate resets:

“Upon the occurrence of a Trigger Event (as defined herein), each Series 1 Share and/or Series 2
Share will be automatically and immediately converted, on a full and permanent basis, without the consent of
the holders thereof, into that number of fully-paid common shares of the Bank (“Common Shares”)
determined by dividing the Share Value (as defined herein) in respect of such Series 1 Shares and/or Series 2 Shares by the Conversion Price (as defined herein) (a “Contingent Conversion”)”

The trigger event is controlled by OSFI and or the government…

There is a floor price of $5.00 per common share on the forced conversions (this is to the disadvantage of pref holders but is extremely unlikely)

Is that not bail-in or is bail-in something different. I would say it is bail-in in the broader sense of the term, no?

Official bail-in legislation can (and has) mandate additional securities for bail-in. Rate reset preferred shares have a built in bail-in feature legislation or not. It is contractual between the bank and the investor.

Again, bail-in is not something I worry about at all.

And, bail-in is meant to provide added protection to depositors. Bond, pref and certainly common share investors rank far lower than depositors on the concern of regulators. They all invest knowing there are risks. Depositors expect zero risk.

#6 Stan Brooks on 02.23.19 at 4:03 pm

county run by corrupt government for benefits of corporations.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mHuLkltJe_A

A banana republic indeed.

#7 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.23.19 at 4:10 pm

Well, in the “predicting the future” train of thought.
I would have predicted the Burnaby South By-Election would have been a washout for Jag Singh but after the SNC Lavalin press fiasco ……not so sure.
Lawn sign polls are neck and neck for Singh and Conservative Jay Shin. The Libs signs are around but me-thinks the SNC steaming pile isnt helping.

Monday night will be the “big reveal”!

#8 mike from mtl on 02.23.19 at 4:12 pm

Ugh ‘sector’ ETFs, I assume IXJ.

If there’s one business that personally I find to be a bunch of greedy vampires are those US heathcare corps. Obviously there’s quite a number in the 500 as well.

They innovate in a litigious, monopolistic, patent-troll fashion.

#9 Stan Brooks on 02.23.19 at 4:21 pm

Leaving your RRSP in the hands of such people:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mHuLkltJe_A

a suicide by all measures.

#10 Joe Schmoe on 02.23.19 at 4:24 pm

I picked:

Beta over VHS
Sony Minidisc over MP3
Intellivision over Atari

I refuse to think I can pick the latest and greatest.

Health care investment is plain and boring and likely correct…Nano-tech will be the big money at some point…but who and when?

#11 Seasonal Investor on 02.23.19 at 4:30 pm

Futures futures futures!

#12 Traveler 3468 on 02.23.19 at 4:55 pm

Nanites. Invest accordingly.

#13 Doug Rowat on 02.23.19 at 5:02 pm

#8 mike from mtl on 02.23.19 at 4:12 pm
Ugh ‘sector’ ETFs, I assume IXJ.

If there’s one business that personally I find to be a bunch of greedy vampires are those US heathcare corps. Obviously there’s quite a number in the 500 as well.

They innovate in a litigious, monopolistic, patent-troll fashion.

We don’t recommend this ETF, and past performance doesn’t guarantee future performance.

With that little disclaimer out of the way, IXJ has a 10-year 13% annualized total return. Thus, for the many health care sector critics, if you can’t beat ’em…join ’em.

–Doug

#14 Shawn Allen on 02.23.19 at 5:12 pm

If You Can’t Beat ’em, join ’em?

Thus, for the many health care sector critics, if you can’t beat ’em…join ’em.

–Doug

***************************
But the approach of so very many these days (environmentalists, protesters of all sorts… ) is instead

“If you can’t join’em.. beat ’em” (I believe warren Buffett said this about something or other)

#15 Andrew on 02.23.19 at 5:19 pm

I heard bitcoin has a chance to be disruptive

#16 For those about to flop... on 02.23.19 at 5:26 pm

Recent sale report.

This condo sale in Kitsilano crosses a few of the normal patterns I have seen so far.

On the one hand it is an older unit which fits the profile for the bulk of condo losses as well as pre-sales.

What you don’t see too often in Vancouver proper is someone losing money in desirable neighborhood like Kits on a condo.

Also of importance with this one it was in the under 750k bracket.

The details…

# 201 2525 W 4TH AVE, Vancouver.

Paid 731k June 2017

Sold 710k February 2019

Originally asking 699k

Assessment 732k

So it looks like they started the bidding low in a tactic for which a scenario never eventuated.

I posted a condo loss in a lower bracket down in Marpole the other day.

Kitsilano, big difference.

Might be an anomaly, might be the start of something, as always time will tell.

Not the biggest loss compared to all the detached carnage, but it’s all relative.

The market decided to give them a 60k love tap for their trouble…

M44BC

Zolo awol…

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=6SKI2Bb8LBw

#17 NoName on 02.23.19 at 5:40 pm

Fortnite is for kids, PUB-g is for kidults.

when you win chicken dinner and in zombie mode to. Priceless.
https://imgur.com/a/M8P4KYA

#18 Rent the podium on 02.23.19 at 5:41 pm

Thanks for owning up to what turned out to be a bad call. Wow did healthcare ETFs get trounced in October.

#19 For those about to flop... on 02.23.19 at 5:56 pm

CONFIRMED PINK SNOW.

This scenario is going to become more prevalent in the next few months as b.c assessment wipes all the sales off the recent sales history that only goes back 3 years, to the detached peak of 2016.

The original sale on this one was February 2016 and has already been wiped from the system, never to return.

To verify this one you have to look at the REW Insight page which goes back a lot further.

Don’t take this information for granted.

If the real estate board gets REW and Zealty shutdown then that will free up sometime for me to show Robax how to play the 13th hole at Augusta correctly.

The details…

3946 w 30th ave,Vancouver.

Paid 4.11 February 2016

Sold 3.55 February 2019

Originally asking 3.99

Assessment 3.93, down from 4.46

The February 2016 sale date comes from my notes via b.c assessment before the deletion.

Such is the lag in reporting sometimes REW didn’t record the same sale until October 2016 when people started to realize that they were trapped in the bunker.

So after they picked up their ball out of the hole they had to give their caddy 750k.

Happy swinging…

M44BC

https://www.rew.ca/insights/82737/3946-w-30th-avenue-vancouver-bc

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/3946-west-30th-avenue

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDAwMEpIWQ==

#20 ImGonnaBeSick on 02.23.19 at 5:58 pm

My joke about golf is, I refuse to play a sport you have no chance of getting better at.

#21 Vampire studies on 02.23.19 at 6:11 pm

16 Flop – I confess to scrolling 98% of the time. But I watched the video. A little google earth and I streetviewed the block.

Found this beauty

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDAwMDdQUQ==

Less than 90% as insane as it was last year. But sill nuts.

#22 jess on 02.23.19 at 6:17 pm

DPA’s

Rolls-Royce entered into a deferred prosecution agreement (DPA) – a type of corporate plea bargain – with the SFO in 2017 to settle allegations of wrongdoing.

The Serious Fraud Office (SFO) has dropped its investigations into aerospace firm Rolls-Royce and drugs giant GlaxoSmithKline.

The SFO said there was “either insufficient evidence” or it was “not in the public interest” to continue.

Rolls was being investigated over concerns about bribery and corruption, which led the firm to enter into a deferred prosecution agreement in 2017.

GSK’s probe concerned “commercial practices” at the company.

SFO director Lisa Osofsky said: “After an extensive and careful examination I have concluded that there is either insufficient evidence to provide a realistic prospect of conviction or it is not in the public interest to bring a prosecution in these cases.

Lisa Osofsky, Director of the Serious Fraud Office said:

“After an extensive and careful examination I have concluded that there is either insufficient evidence to provide a realistic prospect of conviction or it is not in the public interest to bring a prosecution in these cases.

“In the Rolls-Royce case, the SFO investigation led to the company taking responsibility for corrupt conduct spanning three decades, seven jurisdictions and three businesses, for which it paid a fine of £497.25m.

“I am thankful for the work of colleagues and the assistance of domestic and international partners.”

https://www.sfo.gov.uk/2019/02/22/sfo-closes-glaxosmithkline-investigation-and-investigation-into-rolls-royce-individuals/

#23 jess on 02.23.19 at 6:23 pm

22 February 2019

Rolls-Royce notes the announcement from the UK’s Serious Fraud Office (SFO) and will not be commenting on their decision. We reached a Deferred Prosecution Agreement with the SFO and agreements with other investigating authorities in January 2017 and have since been co-operating fully with the authorities.

Details of the Deferred Prosecution Agreements reached with the Serious Fraud Office and US Department of Justice and the Leniency Agreement entered into with the Brazilian Federal Prosecution Service (MPF) can be found here: https://www.rolls-royce.com/media/press-releases/2017/17-01-2017-statement.aspx

#24 Sam on 02.23.19 at 6:31 pm

13th at Augusta ? You’re definitely not a golfer . It’s a par 5 that historically (along with 15 ) has been a birdie hole

Sunday at The Masters , one of sport’s true treasures

#25 Ken M. on 02.23.19 at 6:57 pm

And if you don’t believe hindsight bias exists, read the comments section and see how many posters will claim to have easily foreseen any of the above-mentioned disruptive technologies.
—————————
This comment section might be the worst in the world.
Just penny slots and blaming JT for everything.

#26 Deplorable disruption on 02.23.19 at 7:05 pm

#18 Rent the podium on 02.23.19 at 5:41 pm
Thanks for owning up to what turned out to be a bad call. Wow did healthcare ETFs get trounced in October.
….

If they’re worth their 1%… that’s when they bought them!

#27 Remembrancer on 02.23.19 at 7:16 pm

#10 Joe Schmoe on 02.23.19 at 4:24 pm

I was a sucker for SONY but went VHS instead +1, went to their own music format and missed a lot of MP3 -1, got Blue Ray right +1. So ahead I guess. Still remember a buddy’s parents Beta player cabinet, the thing was solid teakwood and about 6 FT long.

Anyway, Health has been a great sector in my experience, but you need to treat it like Tech, only more so, there’s a lot of R&D expense that may or not pan out and a relatively limited window to profit before generics kick in but its one of those areas that impacts just about everyone and is vast hoards of wrinklies fuelled for the next couple of business cycles… Stock pick at your peril though…

#28 Nonplused on 02.23.19 at 7:34 pm

Doug,

Your post today reminds me of a saying which is often attributed to the Dutch: “Making predictions is extremely difficult, especially with regards to the future.”

My take away from that saying was that it is hard enough to know what actually happened in the past, the future is an ask too much.

How did Alberta end up with an NDP government? Was it Danielle Smith’s fault? Could she have known?

But there are some trends that are established enough you can rely on them. The first is that there is no protection for foreign intellectual property in the US. Nokia and RIM were both doomed from the moment they became popular. Nortel likewise. It seems unfair, but it is how empire works. There was never any way the Avro Arrow was going to be built and exported, even though if you believe the romance it looked like it was going to work and was meeting most design criteria. The platform with modern electronics would probably out preform an F-35 in every way other than stealth and vertical take-off.

It is always a mistake to bet on foreign companies succeeding in the US, unless they have similarly massive home markets. BMW can succeed, but only because they have Germany and Russia as primary markets. Volkswagen got bent over the tail pipe for diesel emissions cheating but then it turned out everyone was doing it.

And Canada is not exempt as we shall see as more develops from the SNC Lavalin case. Or Bombardier comes to mind. But it doesn’t matter how many subsidies we give Bombardier their days manufacturing airplanes are numbered. Canada is too small of a market to support an international export of something like an airplane, especially when our own airlines don’t want to buy them. Last I checked WestJet is still flying all 737’s except that I guess they’ve got a new 787 now too. No CRJ’s. Air Canada uses some Bombardier planes for regional flights but also lots of Embraers. So far as I can tell Bombardier’s main customer is Alaska Airlines.

Of course another example is Nintendo, who brought us the modern video game counsel. The Japanese are still in this space but the xBox is now leading sales. I think the Japanese are still allowed in this space because most of the games are written in California, and it is game creation that generates the revenues, the counsels are loss leaders.

Even if you have a good idea, you cannot dominate the American market unless you become an American company. It’s as simple as that. They won’t let you.

#29 acdel on 02.23.19 at 7:35 pm

Ok Doug, although, I always thought that you were a smartass with something to prove. I have to admit that that this post of yours is almost up there with Garths. Seems like he is rubbing off on you. :)

#30 Long-Time Lurker on 02.23.19 at 7:36 pm

#54 Figure it Out on 02.22.19 at 8:52 pm

Did you miss the first half of the movie?…

>I’ll keep it simple for you. MMT equals hyperinflation.

#80 Kurt on 02.22.19 at 11:13 pm
Long-Time Lurker – be sure to understand the difference between socialism and clientelism.

>Let’s see. Venezuela. Nationalization of industries. Check. Price controls. Check. Socialism.

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/socialism

Definition of socialism

1 : any of various economic and political theories advocating collective or governmental ownership and administration of the means of production and distribution of goods

2a : a system of society or group living in which there is no private property

b : a system or condition of society in which the means of production are owned and controlled by the state

3 : a stage of society in Marxist theory transitional between capitalism and communism and distinguished by unequal distribution of goods and pay according to work done

#31 espressobob on 02.23.19 at 7:40 pm

Sector plays are what they is. When you hit it out of bounds the penalty is stroke and distance. Nasty.

Owning the major indices reduces ones handicap and keeps the portfolio in the fairway. FORE.

#32 Russ on 02.23.19 at 7:51 pm

Joe Schmoe on 02.23.19 at 4:24 pm

I picked:

Beta over VHS
Sony Minidisc over MP3
Intellivision over Atari

I refuse to think I can pick the latest and greatest.

Health care investment is plain and boring and likely correct…Nano-tech will be the big money at some point…but who and when?
==============================

Thank you Joe.

For being the first to comment on subject.

Beta & Sony were better and I did chose Atari as my first computer. Wonderful little machine.

So, what say the crowd on which health care ETF is best?

And please, try not to trigger James on the Boomer subsidies.

Cheers, R

#33 Shawn Allen on 02.23.19 at 8:00 pm

Reading Comprehension

#24 Sam on 02.23.19 at 6:31 pm

13th at Augusta ? You’re definitely not a golfer . It’s a par 5 that historically (along with 15 ) has been a birdie hole

*****************

Yeah, he said it’s a par 5… one that technology is turning into more of a par 4…

#34 GoKartMozart on 02.23.19 at 8:03 pm

The disruptive force in health care for the aged is Consensual Murder (aka Assisted Dying).

#35 Peggy in Kelowna on 02.23.19 at 8:13 pm

Hi Doug…enjoy reading your weekly articles and have learned a lot from you and Garth as I’m not that financially informed. Came upon this article written by Sprott Asset Management USA where they discuss gold. I know nothing about this company Sprott nor gold as an investment but do you think one should own a bit of it? Would really appreciate your comments. Thanks.

http://sprott.com/insights/2019-top-10-list/

Mr. Sprott has broken many hearts. – Garth

#36 acdel on 02.23.19 at 8:15 pm

Most of us knew that the P.M. could care less about these folks. Many of us knowing that it probably would not make a difference but admired them for trying watched to see if the government of all Canadians would acknowledge there rights to protest. Of course they did not. They only acknowledge the privileged few!
We observed, people who partook, your travels were not in vain, thank you.

Great article!

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/rex-murphy-trudeau-prattles-on-about-snc-lavalin-jobs-while-ignoring-albertas-jobless-truckers?video_autoplay=true

#37 For those about to flop... on 02.23.19 at 8:18 pm

Race to 900k

When I featured these guys for the 3 or 4th time last Sunday, I thought the next time I would have to mention them was to report a sale.

5431 Manor st, Burnaby.

Originally asking 1.24

Now asking 945k

Assessment 2018 911k

Assessment 2017 969k

Paid 875k 2015

I thought the last reduction would do the trick as nothing much exists in Burnaby under a million.

What started off as a Race to a million post then spiralled into a Race to 900k post and it has come so far down that a Pink Draw has come into play with their 875k buy price in 2015.

I’m rooting for these guys.

They have been honest.

Too honest for the Greater Vancouver market.

5 price reductions for all to see.

No relisting, no funny business with days on market.

Sadly, their honesty might have cost them doing something that should be standard practice.

It’s worth nothing to them in their predicament, but they have my respect.

This is Vancouver, honesty doesn’t pay…

M44BC

Feb 23, 2019 $945,000 Price Reduced

Feb 15, 2019 $988,000 Price Reduced

Jan 12, 2019 $1,080,000 Price Reduced

Sep 19, 2018 $1,135,000 Price Reduced

Aug 8, 2018 $1,190,000 Price Reduced

Jun 13, 2018 $1,240,000 Listed For Sale

https://www.zolo.ca/burnaby-real-estate/5431-manor-street

https://www.rew.ca/insights/267073/5431-manor-street-burnaby-bc

#38 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.23.19 at 8:18 pm

@#3 Flop
“Close to 40% after expenses or roughly 1.15 million.

Here’s your Million Dollar Baby.

++++

man o man.
Legitimizing money is expensive!

#39 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.23.19 at 8:24 pm

@#15 Traveller 3468
“Nanites. Invest accordingly.”

++++

I bought a jar of those pesky little robots and I left the lid open.
They’re all gone and my dog is acting a little weird.
He walks on two feet, smokes a pipe and speaks perfect english with an Orson Welles accent when he asks me “whats for dinner…….?”

Should I be worried?

#40 Troy McClure on 02.23.19 at 8:31 pm

I want to say one word to you, just one word.

Plastics.

#41 Golfing Sport on 02.23.19 at 8:33 pm

I played in all the major tournaments in my youth, and there is no better sport than to join a club. Parents should start their children on lessons at age 7 with a club pro for grip, stance, woods, and irons. They will meet in their early teens formulating golf partners, and socializing with those that have character. In time there will be networking developed in the employment market, and its a sport that can carry on into the retirement years. Its expensive today, but well worth the investment for the kids, that will pay dividends for many years.

#42 acdel on 02.23.19 at 8:33 pm

Felix..

This one is for you! :)

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B9evbrEtyQYzWmp0Q05rTTVLcGNSSmd4RDMxTWVNUzYtc0k4/view

#43 Peggy in Kelowna on 02.23.19 at 8:40 pm

Oh Hi Garth…

“Hi Doug…enjoy reading your weekly articles and have learned a lot from you and Garth as I’m not that financially informed. Came upon this article written by Sprott Asset Management USA where they discuss gold. I know nothing about this company Sprott nor gold as an investment but do you think one should own a bit of it? Would really appreciate your comments. Thanks.

http://sprott.com/insights/2019-top-10-list/

Mr. Sprott has broken many hearts. – Garth’

Thought Doug was on today. Appreciate your response but not sure what you meant..Thanks Peggy

#44 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.23.19 at 8:44 pm

@#25 ken M
“his comment section might be the worst in the world.
Just penny slots and blaming JT for everything.”

+++++
Personally I have enjoyed Mr Trudeau’s endless ‘spinjob” on the SNC debacle.

1st he said, “I did not pressure Jody over the SNC case.

Then , “I have no knowledge of anyone in the PMO’s office pressuring Jody over the SNC case”

Then, “If Jody was pressured by anyone in the PMO’s office she should have come to me.”

Then, “I regret to announce Geraldd Butts has resigned (ie fallen on his sword for the team)”

Then, ” We were concerned about the loss of jobs(votes?) in Quebec if SNC is convicted and banned for 10 years.

A complete volte face in less than a week.

JT deserves the blame he is getting for either deliberately misleading the public OR being too stupid to know when his PMO staff were misleading him.

Its now known there were 3 meetings with Wilson -Raybould in Sept 2018 about the SNC case alone.
I’m sure the pressure was immense.
She gets to talk next week.
But it’s all moot until election day.

Cant wait to see how bad he blows the budget to be “everything to everyone” in this election year.

Sadly Pathetic fiscal suicide for the blissed out Millenials that will be paying exorbitant taxes for the rest of time…….

#45 Doug Rowat on 02.23.19 at 9:02 pm

#28 Nonplused on 02.23.19 at 7:34 pm
Doug,

Your post today reminds me of a saying which is often attributed to the Dutch: “Making predictions is extremely difficult, especially with regards to the future.”

—-

Was that not Yogi Berra? But tough to tell, he never said most of the things he said.

—Doug

#46 Vampire studies on 02.23.19 at 9:03 pm

Flop – further to above, I dug a little deeper and found that particular strata has 73 units, and covers what looks like 8 original building lots. So I thought about the land cost assembling a similar development in the hood and come up with $24M which is of course over $300k per door. I don’t know if developers are willing to pay that even in kits.

Also checked the other adjacent lots to my link and found that some have already been strata’d, and one at the east end was under a development permit app at time of streetview imagery.

#47 spruiker awol on 02.23.19 at 9:03 pm

Substitute Australia with Canada. Timberrrr!

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12205673

#48 KLNR on 02.23.19 at 9:09 pm

@#25 Ken M. on 02.23.19 at 6:57 pm
And if you don’t believe hindsight bias exists, read the comments section and see how many posters will claim to have easily foreseen any of the above-mentioned disruptive technologies.
—————————
This comment section might be the worst in the world.
Just penny slots and blaming JT for everything.
_____________________

True. But the fiction and conspiracy theories are are top notch.

#49 bigzhitta on 02.23.19 at 9:21 pm

Dougie,

I know you are not a golfer, but would you be interested in being my caddy. We can discuss ETF’s while you carry the sticks and offer insights on the game from a non-golfer’s perspective….ps I do not pay as well as Matt Kuchar.

#50 Remembrancer on 02.23.19 at 9:22 pm

#39 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.23.19 at 8:24 pm
Should I be worried?
——————————————————–
Only if he starts coughing up grey goo…

#51 Stan Brooks on 02.23.19 at 9:35 pm

It is always the scam artists that make the big bucks on the back of the broken stupid sheeple.

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/housings-boom-times-real-estate-agents-made-killing-191222003.html

Selling ‘lifestyle’ and pushing made-up statistics and FOMO that serve their own interest., reported as ‘news’ by the presstitude media.

Unregulated of course as the french villa guy and the socks boy have more important work to protect their criminal friends who (proven as a fact) bribed Libyans but surely (trust me) did not bribe our illustrious PM; rip off small businesses while ‘creating jobs, building communities and working for all Canadians’, all that BS.

In the meantime the poor sheeple pays 390 % on payday loans:

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/payday-loans-drove-40-per-cent-ontario-insolvencies-last-year-report-162544230.html

while getting sub 1 % on deposit from the banks.

While the ‘experts’ at BoC ‘play hockey’ with the economy.

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/stephen-poloz-wayne-gretzky-canadas-economy-195645081.html

Yep, a G7 country indeed.

#52 Leafs Rock!!!!!! on 02.23.19 at 9:53 pm

The Toronto Maple Leafs rock!!!! Down 3 goals to Montreal they come back with 6 goals!!!! Sweeeeet!!!

#53 ImGonnaBeSick on 02.23.19 at 10:01 pm

#39 crowdedelevatorfartz – depends.. what breed of dog is it?

#54 Rentin on 02.23.19 at 10:23 pm

Shorting on bad news is an easier game. BP – Gulf disaster, Oil Sands Trust – Fort Mac Fire, Denison Mines – Fukashima.

You just need reasonable expectations on when to cover. 10-20% drop works everytime….

Waiting for a 50% drop may mean you miss it.

#55 Lead Paint on 02.23.19 at 10:59 pm

This one’s for you SCM. Most of us can get behind reducing child neglect…

” A 2017 study ….found that raising the minimum wage by $1 would reduce child-neglect reports by almost 10 percent.”

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/02/21/magazine/minimum-wage-saving-lives.html

#56 Smoking Man on 02.23.19 at 11:25 pm

Truth can only be found in little kids.
Drunken people.
And yoga paints.

#57 David Driven on 02.23.19 at 11:26 pm

Apple had nothing to do with Nokia’s demise. The Adroid O/s was the disruptor with its advanced graphics and developer friendly platform. Nokia was over engineered, laden with advanced technology, but bubbly cool color games was what people decided they wanted over Nokia.

The Nokia business model was fat with smart highly paid people in expensive silos. Android made it possible to knock off cheap phones that were more fun. Nokia was an engineers tool with layers that few people could understand. Android, not Apple.

Costs caught up with Nokia. Executives lived like kings. They could afford it when they were the big dog controlling an 80% share.

I was fortunate to be on that gravy train. My wife ran five business units and it involved a crazy amount of travel. She was in charge of all the prototype manufacturing and quality.

Our business class commute around the world went from San Fran/Vancouver for a few weeks on to New York for a few weeks, London, Holland, Beijing, Singapore and back to NA…. it took months to circumnavigate the world and begin all over again. We stayed in the best hotels, ate free on the company dime, free car rental and unlimited cab fares, did an incredible amount of regional side trips while in Europe, to Africa and SE Asia. We travelled so much I had to sell my own business and go freelance online, wouldn’t you? We primarily lived in luxury hotel suites for weeks and months at a time, what a life.

When they hired a Canadian CEO the company fell apart. All Finland hates Canada for the acts of this one bozo. But…what a ten year ride for us….weeeee. Life is good. Retired now in Bali and other seasonal delights. I could tell you more how to trade the stock market from poolside, but Garth deletes 90% of the wisdom I impart.

If can leave you with one thing, make money while you’re young so you’re more attractive to successful women, marry a beautiful highly educated woman half your age who happens to have a genius level IQ. As Charlie Monger said recently ” living a good life is easy”. And, get the hell out of Canada. There’s no future there.

#58 Johnny D on 02.23.19 at 11:31 pm

Awesome read as always Doug. Keep up the good work.

#59 Ronaldo on 02.23.19 at 11:46 pm

#43 Peggy in Kelowna on 02.23.19 at 8:40 pm
Oh Hi Garth…

“Hi Doug…enjoy reading your weekly articles and have learned a lot from you and Garth as I’m not that financially informed. Came upon this article written by Sprott Asset Management USA where they discuss gold. I know nothing about this company Sprott nor gold as an investment but do you think one should own a bit of it? Would really appreciate your comments. Thanks.
—————————————————————
Well Peggy if you really feel you need to own a bit of gold I suggest you check this out. At least it will be useful to you rather than just sit in a safety deposit box.

https://mene.com/

#60 Bottoms_Up on 02.24.19 at 12:36 am

Interesting charts.

Is Tesla a disruptive tech for automotive?

Is amazon disruptive for brick and mortar retail?

#61 Dolce Vita on 02.24.19 at 12:49 am

Beautiful.

Poster Blog for Schumpeter’s Creative Destruction.

Good to read his observations still hold true and resonate near 70 years later.

Those worried about the demise of SNC-Lavalin take note.

#62 NFN_NLN on 02.24.19 at 12:58 am

#44 crowdedelevatorfartz

Sadly Pathetic fiscal suicide for the blissed out Millenials that will be paying exorbitant taxes for the rest of time…….

It’s all worth it though. Think of all the immigrants we’ve helped get established in Canada. /s

#63 SirHani on 02.24.19 at 1:26 am

Great post today! teach that ryan guy a thing or two…

#64 SoggyShorts on 02.24.19 at 6:26 am

Fortnite is not the reason why developers like blizzard and EA are doing poorly. It has a lot more to do with the fact that they put out crap games and told their customers to suck it.
https://youtu.be/50KBNQe5hTM

#65 AfterTheHouseSold on 02.24.19 at 6:45 am

#62 Dolce Vita
“Those worried about the demise of SCN-Lavalin take note.”

No worries. Can’t get a DFA, just change public policy to suit. No ten year ban on government contracts.

https://business.financialpost.com/news/fp-street/heres-how-a-new-escape-route-could-open-up-for-snc-lavalin?video_autoplay=true

#66 Matt on 02.24.19 at 7:59 am

Newest disruption stock – patriot one technologies. They can detect concealed weapons such as bombs, guns
and knives. They are also partnering with another company who can detect drugs and airborne weapons. This company will be the “iPhone” moment for the security industry

#67 KLNR on 02.24.19 at 8:43 am

@#58 David Driven on 02.23.19 at 11:26 pm

____________________________

haha, sure david.

#68 Penny Henny on 02.24.19 at 9:06 am

#28 Nonplused on 02.23.19 at 7:34 pm
Doug,

Your post today reminds me of a saying which is often attributed to the Dutch: “Making predictions is extremely difficult, especially with regards to the future.”

—-

Was that not Yogi Berra? But tough to tell, he never said most of the things he said.

—Doug

////////////////

Yogi Berra…..hmmm….could be a Dutch name

#69 Remembrancer on 02.24.19 at 9:07 am

#61 Bottoms_Up on 02.24.19 at 12:36 am
Interesting charts.

Is Tesla a disruptive tech for automotive?

Is amazon disruptive for brick and mortar retail?
————————————————————–
Tesla is definitely a disruptor for the Factory – Dealership model, while leading the charge for electric cars I look at it more as a energy storage play long term.

Amazon has already disrupted brick and mortar retail…

#70 PastThePeak on 02.24.19 at 9:32 am

#61 Bottoms_Up on 02.24.19 at 12:36 am
Interesting charts.

Is Tesla a disruptive tech for automotive?

Is amazon disruptive for brick and mortar retail?
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

No.
Yes.

#71 Remembrancer on 02.24.19 at 9:47 am

#58 David Driven on 02.23.19 at 11:26 pm
Our business class commute around the world went from San Fran/Vancouver for a few weeks on to New York for a few weeks, London, Holland, Beijing, Singapore and back to NA….
—————————————————————
Cool, Helsinki ever on the itinerary? Great beer patio town. Owned 3 Nokia’s before switching to Motorola then Blackberry – all cautionary tales…

To Doug’s over-all point, hires like Elop (though in this morality play you absolve Kallasvuo of all blame just to bash Canada?) and over-paid globetrotting executives in 1st class all the way along with deteriorating quality are symptoms of corporate hubris of the top dog that set themselves up for disruption – too much time nest feathering than out innovating the competition. Drawing a line back from Android to Linux you could “blame” Torvalds as well, so there’s a certain amount of symmetry there… Do give Apple some credit, Symbian wasn’t going to beat a new entertainment platform on its own…

Maybe if getting censored you could start your own blog?

#72 Remembrancer on 02.24.19 at 10:17 am

#65 SoggyShorts on 02.24.19 at 6:26 am
And all while expecting their “communities” to pony up more and more $$ for updates and in-game upgrades on a regular basis to stay competitive or buy their way to higher levels regardless of merit…

#73 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.24.19 at 10:26 am

A BC couple in an “investment” quandry.

Sell the money losing condos or …..

https://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/family-finance/rental-condo-investments-arent-doing-this-b-c-couple-any-favours

The unmentioned financial elephant in the article is the estimated sales price of these condos.

No where does it mention a melting RE market.

One wonders how many other “investors” are staring a Real estate meltdown in the face while hanging on by their financial fingernails……..

#74 Doug Rowat on 02.24.19 at 10:42 am

#65 SoggyShorts on 02.24.19 at 6:26 am

Fortnite is not the reason why developers like blizzard and EA are doing poorly.

The CEO and CFO of Activision Blizzard both admitted that Fortnite’s Battle Royale had negatively impacted results over the near term. I show a near-term performance chart, so yes, Fortnite’s the key reason why they’re doing poorly.

Activision’s the worst performer in that chart because they also have a multitude of other operational problems. The CFO in question, for example, was recently fired.

–Doug

#75 dharma bum on 02.24.19 at 10:44 am

I’m not a fan of golf and don’t play; – Doug
——————————————————————–
Ah.
We have something in common.

I’ve tried many times.

I really, really suck.

Just can’t get it.

#76 Doug Rowat on 02.24.19 at 11:10 am

#55 Rentin on 02.23.19 at 10:23 pm

Shorting on bad news is an easier game. BP – Gulf disaster, Oil Sands Trust – Fort Mac Fire, Denison Mines – Fukashima.

You just need reasonable expectations on when to cover. 10-20% drop works everytime….

Wrong, of course.

But haven’t you seen the Casino Royale airport scene? For every disaster there’s a James Bond. He’s every short seller’s nightmare.

Don’t be a Le Chiffre.

–Doug

#77 Remembrancer on 02.24.19 at 11:17 am

#74 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.24.19 at 10:26 am

Jeez, what’s wrong with these people?

The other elephant in the room is that a 45 and 49 year old have a 3 year old. Their expenses aren’t gently ramping down over the next 15-20 years to retirement at 65…

The FP was too kind, DUMP THE CONDOS and then make the RRSP contribution, don’t dare treat the refund as “found money” and give your head a shake people…

#78 jess on 02.24.19 at 12:19 pm

disrupted:

German authorities announced on Wednesday they seized 50 million euros (US$56.7 million) believed to be derived from the “Russian Laundromat” – an international money laundering scheme exposed in 2014 by the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP) and the Russian newspaper Novaya Gazeta.

LaundromatThe “Russian Laundromat” may well be the biggest money laundering operation in Eastern Europe. (Photo: OCCRP)Following a three-year long investigation into three defendants, Germany’s Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA) and the public prosecutor’s office Munich I on Monday confiscated four properties in Schwalbach am Taunus, Nuremberg, Regensburg and Mühldorf am Inn with a total value of around $45.39 million.

An account from a Latvian bank with a balance of $1.36 million deriving from the sale of a property in Chemnitz was also seized. Authorities as well provisionally secured accounts at various banks containing funds of approximately $7.59 million.

Munich I’s previous investigations suggest that the assets in the bank accounts, invested in luxury real estate, are proceeds of the “Russian Laundromat” – possibly the biggest money laundering operation in Eastern Europe.
read more @

https://www.occrp.org/en/27-ccwatch/cc-watch-briefs/9269-germany-seizes-50-mil-euros-of-russian-laundromat-loot

#79 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.24.19 at 12:26 pm

@#78 Remembrancer
“The other elephant in the room is that a 45 and 49 year old have a 3 year old. Their expenses aren’t gently ramping down over the next 15-20 years to retirement at 65…”

+++++
True enough.
Nothing like dealing with a bored, surly, expensive teen at 65……..

#80 Shawn Allen on 02.24.19 at 12:30 pm

Avert your eyes from successful people?

#68 KLNR on 02.24.19 at 8:43 am responded to

@#58 David Driven on 02.23.19 at 11:26 pm

____________________________

haha, sure david.

***********************
Interesting. I read David’s story at 58 and thought hmmm, this guy might be someone to listen to. I will watch for more of his posts. Might be both interesting and informative.

KLNR though chooses to believe David’s story of success is fake.

#81 Ronaldo on 02.24.19 at 12:35 pm

#74 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.24.19 at 10:26 am

The unmentioned financial elephant in the article is the estimated sales price of these condos.
——————————————————————
Those were my exact thoughts when I read this article. They may find when they go to sell (if they do) that the prices are not even close to what the FP estimates. The longer they wait the worse it will get.

These people were set up for retirement and didn’t need to gamble with real estate but am sure their friends have done the same as well. This is just the tip of the ice berg. Many are going to find themselves in the same situation.

A lot of these gains are an illusion and the more we hear on the news about the non affordability and the money laundering, etc. causing these crazy prices people will rush to the exits thinking that prices are going to seriously correct. And they will.

#82 Dolce Vita on 02.24.19 at 12:51 pm

#66 AfterTheHouseSold

Good one.

2 laws, one for the masses and one for “them”.

Bankruptcy & Insolvency Act and CCAA.

What a country!

#83 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.24.19 at 1:23 pm

@#82 Dolce Vita
“2 laws, one for the masses and one for “them”.”

Yep . I remember when Canary Warf in London was under developement and the hundreds of millions invested was teetering on the brink.
The banks couldnt repo.
They were squealing like pigs for govt intervention and guarantees.

Reichman was “too big to fail”….. and then…a few years later…… he wasnt….

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/legendary-canadian-real-estate-developer-paul-reichmann-dies/article15084013/

All the doom and gloom predictions about SNC Lavalin banned from Fed contracts costing 1000’s of jobs ( insert Liberal votes here)…
Pffft.

When there’s 1000’s of oil jobs, fishery jobs, logging, mining jobs …..not a peep from our fearless leaders.

#84 Remembrancer on 02.24.19 at 1:54 pm

#81 Shawn Allen on 02.24.19 at 12:30 pm

Interesting. I read David’s story at 58 and thought hmmm, this guy might be someone to listen to. I will watch for more of his posts. Might be both interesting and informative.
————————————————————-
Not his first post, search back through history. Possible, but unconfirmed Cat Lover…

\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/
#141 David Driven on 02.23.19 at 10:25 pm
#122 KNLR , if you think that’s cutting edge you should read the comments Garth censors. The truth is out there, just not for the average Canadian. That douchebag Wernick just said so, trying to play us all for fools. But remember, he spoke as insider manipulators do, with a complete and utter disdain for the citizens. The globalist goons really are planning a gutting of freedom and democracy. As Garth shows with his delete button , there are truths insiders know that aren’t shared in the public for fear of upsetting the balance of wolves and sheep.

Drama queen. Deletes are almost always for language, racism, homophobia, xenophobia, ad hominem, libel or excessive feline fondness. – Garth

#85 KLNR on 02.24.19 at 2:08 pm

@#81 Shawn Allen on 02.24.19 at 12:30 pm
Avert your eyes from successful people?

#68 KLNR on 02.24.19 at 8:43 am responded to

@#58 David Driven on 02.23.19 at 11:26 pm

____________________________

haha, sure david.

***********************
Interesting. I read David’s story at 58 and thought hmmm, this guy might be someone to listen to. I will watch for more of his posts. Might be both interesting and informative.

KLNR though chooses to believe David’s story of success is fake.
____________

Oh man, Love this blog.
The madness is highly entertaining.

#86 New West on 02.24.19 at 2:42 pm

#74 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.24.19 at 10:26 am

A BC couple in an “investment” quandry.

—————————————–
Anecdotal but applicable – I moved into a short term rental in September in the GVA and last month the task was to find a new, longer term place to rent.

I looked at three places in a week. Each one was an “investment” condo, the owners living in a townhouse or house and renting out the condo. Two of them were owned by couples with young kids who obviously needed to get a tenant in pronto to keep the mortgage up to date – move in was immediately and when I came to look at the place they almost shoved tenancy agreements at me to get me to sign off that night. Viewing all three of the places the landlords kept emphasizing that they wanted to be “fair” to the incoming tenant and that is why the rents were not as high as comparable apartments on Craigslist.

The place I chose is owned by an older retired couple who are not as stretched and took some time to interview tenants. Still, the wife told me that at some point they would have to sell the house in Vancouver and probably move into the condo I’ll be renting as they are still carrying two mortgages. The husband is also looking for work, and I don’t get the impression that it is because he is bored in retirement.

Rents are definitely trending down from what I have seen on Craigslist. Several people at work are shocked, shocked I tell you, that I am renting and not buying “a home” and am “throwing my money away on rent”. When I tell them that it just depends on who you want to give your money to, interest to the bank or rent to the landlord (and the bank doesn’t shovel the walks!), they don’t get what I mean. A comparable place in the building I’m moving to which is “Listed below assessment!” would cost about 2.5x my rent just for the monthly mortgage payment. For strata. In a falling market……..why on earth would anyone buy into that?

There is a scent of desperation in the air out here on the coast, with “price reduced” stickers starting to appear on the for sale signs even in tony neighbourhoods. It’s a good time to be a renter.

#87 Dave Selvers The N Guy on 02.24.19 at 2:46 pm

DELETED

#88 jess on 02.24.19 at 2:55 pm

UBC academic Nathan Lauster says the role of Chinese money is exaggerated and a ‘moral panic’, testifying in lawsuit aiming to axe Vancouver’s foreign buyer tax
But at the same time, he was selling his home for C$3million (US$2.3 million), more than double its valuation, to two of the city’s top China-money lobbyists]
https://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/2181447/professor-says-vancouvers-china-money-fears-mirror

#89 Rich Young on 02.24.19 at 3:08 pm

And the FAKE markets move higher and higher and are as high as a kite and make sense as someone high. Yet earnings expectations keep falling. Oh the Great American Lie continues.

#90 Eco Capitalist on 02.24.19 at 5:25 pm

My hindsight bias has worked twice: when the government privatized CN and when they privatized Air Canada. I predicted CN would flourish, being freed from doing what’s in the national interest and instead operating as a business and that Air Canada would crash and burn, which it did, because you can’t make money flying big, empty airplanes around Canada. Sadly, I was a teenager for CN and didn’t have money to invest. For Air Canada, I didn’t know about shorting a stock.

I would have backed Commodore (based on the Amiga) and Sony (based on Betamax). Both of these provided the lesson that superior technology doesn’t guarantee a market win. For most people, all you need is “good enough”.

#91 Kevin on 02.24.19 at 6:36 pm

Great post, Doug. Thank you.

#92 David Driven on 02.24.19 at 9:36 pm

#72 Rememberance. Helsinki, Ooulu and Tempere were on every stop. We lived in a suite at Radisson Blue on the waterfront overlooking the ferry dock to Estonia. The Fazer chocolate and Wayne’s Coffes are classic on those super cold days. I rec., Finland for everyone. Total trip. Try Levi and the “Wolf Den” restaurants up north serving Reindeer Tartar.

Don’t give a flying puck if an envious troll like KLNR hates my life. Love Finland any time of year. I took my first international business trip in 1972 and eventually lived, worked, did business and played in 91 countries. KLNR…..pull your pajama bottoms up.

Getting censored and banned is a way of life. Even a badge of Honour. I woke up in a luxury suite in a beach front resort in Bali. The haters will just have to suck it up .

#93 Twoloop on 02.25.19 at 10:48 pm

“once Apple’s much cooler iPhone was launched in 2007, it was game over for Nokia”

Well, not exactly. Sure enough, iPhone’s advent brought the disruption to the industry, not only to Nokia though. But it was not until Nokia finally bit the bullet and decided to dump their in-house Symbian OS, that “it was game over for Nokia”.

At the time Nokia was still #1 globally and faced a choice between embracing Android or signing up for Windows Mobile. Their newly appointed CEO chose the latter. And THAT was when Nokia was toast.

No hindsight bias here, it all unfolded in plain sight. It was clear then that the choice was catastrophically wrong. Should they choose Android, chances are Nokia would still be #1, not Samsung. Remember Samsung at that time – they were a strong diversified conglomerate, but their cell-phone business was far from prominence.

Otherwise it’s a great post, Doug! I get your point. Thanks for the great job you’re doing!