Nowhere to hide

In the GTA, where six million souls toil, dwell and freeze, there’s no speculation tax. No empty-houses tax. No higher property tax for the property-rich. The lower-than-BC foreign buyer tax has had zero market impact. There are no politicians lobbying for more taxes on real estate. Nobody got elected promising to gut homeowners or crash house prices. There’s scant resentment of offshore buyers. Nobody cares about money-laundering, if there is any. And people don’t obsess about their real estate on the streetcar or the subway.

But, Toronto also has the stress test. Buyers have seen interest rates rise. And in the Kingdom of 416, for years a double land transfer tax has added about $50,000 to the cost of the average detached digs.

The contrast with the Left Coast is therefore dramatic. Last month Vancouver sales plunged 40%. In Toronto they were flat year/year. In YVR the benchmark house price is 9% lower and 93% of available detached houses did not sell. In the GTA house prices gained enough to pace inflation. No bubble. No crash. The market is finding its level – which means inflated detached houses are getting cheaper (by almost 9% in a year).

Today the real estate cartel held a big media event to try and pump 2019. They can’t help themselves. It’s part of realtor DNA. Apparently they can also mind-start an Audi by merely gazing at it.

So where is Toronto real estate headed this year?

If you believe the cartel, it’s all good. Sales up moderately (from 77,400 to 83,000), prices rising 4% – mostly due to condos, and no big surge in listings. They hope. But all this stability talk masks a deep concern about eroding credit and muddled moisters in the nation’s biggest market.

Yes, more stress test angst. The real estate board admits that, on average, the test has forced potential buyers to qualify for monthly payments $700 above what they actually have to pay to own a property. The result? The market’s moved down – more demand for cheaper places. More love for condos, less for detached. As a result, detached houses lost 8.8% of their value in 416 during the past year (to $1,174,134) while condos gained exactly the same – almost 9% (to $591,444).

So here is the realtor squeeze on federal Finance Minister Bill Morneau:

“One area that needs to be revisited is the imposition of the OSFI-mandated two percentage point mortgage stress test. While we saw buyers return to the market in the second half of 2018, we have to have an honest discussion on whether or not today’s home buyers are being stress tested against rates that are realistic. Home sales in the GTA, and Canada more broadly, play a huge role in economic growth, job creation and government revenues every year. Looking through this lens, policymakers need to be aware of unintended consequences the stress test could have on the housing market and broader economy.”

Of course, things are always more dire than the industry likes to admit. For example, the average detached 416 price of $1.174 million is 13.3% lower than it was exactly 12 months ago. So someone needing to sell would have to eat a loss of more than $180,000 plus $47,138 in land transfer tax and another $58,700 in commission. The total hit = $285,800, or a loss of 21%. Ouch.

In fact the average detached house in the jewel of the GTA is changing hands for 12% less than in the Spring of last year and a crispy 25.6% under what it commanded the previous year. Yeah, houses always go up – just like your Mom told you.

Where from here?

As mentioned, the cartel wants buyers to believe prices will rise 4%, to an average of $820,000 (from $787,195). That would be close to 2017 levels, but not quite. And what is this based on? “An uptick in the number of people considering a house purchase… supported by population growth, low unemployment and lower average fixed-rate borrowing costs…” Plus, of course, duct tape and faerie dust.

Only in real estate could end users be told categorically that prices will be higher in the future. If an investment advisor guaranteed a 4% average increase in all portfolios, he’d be vivisected by regulators. In fact, there are solid reasons to expect the two-year plop to continue – unless politicians cave.

Interest rates are not going down in 2019, other than some modest bond yield-related blips. The Bank of Canada is not cutting, and is still expected to increase at least once (along with the Fed). The majority of people who bought ‘investment’ condos are considering dumping them, since most are losing money. Meanwhile tens of thousands of new units are about to flood onto the scene, even as the unsold condo inventory piles up. While the feds may cap (not gut) the stress test while allowing 30-year insured mortgages again, the debt level of families in the GTA is extreme. The national average is 170%, but in Toronto it’s more like 200%. For average buyers of $1 million+ properties, it exceeds 400%.

– McGill International Review

Moral: Toronto is not Vancouver. The West is pooched. The East’s in disbelief. And realtors are praying you don’t notice.

157 comments ↓

#1 Midnights on 02.06.19 at 4:55 pm

You wanted government intervention you got it…

https://www.stcatharinesstandard.ca/news-story/9162117-ford-government-considering-ways-for-landlords-to-speed-up-evictions/

#2 Tater on 02.06.19 at 4:55 pm

Over the last year, the average detached in Toronto has lost 100k in value. Throw in 30k in interest and another 6k in property taxes. So, as long as your rent was less than about 11k per month, you were better off renting last year.

#3 Andrew on 02.06.19 at 5:09 pm

Revisiting bitcoin from a few days ago. A comparison with other bubbles:

https://ibb.co/jGsQmS4

#4 yorkville renter on 02.06.19 at 5:11 pm

so… prices and volume projected to rise

BUT

the stress test should go??? why??? the market appears to be just fine with it – according to TREB anyway.

looks like they want their cake and eat it too!

#5 april on 02.06.19 at 5:12 pm

Surely most intelligent people know that the realtors are not concerned about home owners, they only care about their commission, hence wanting government to intervene and make it easier for people, especially first time buyers, to get into the market. Even Trumps’ son admitted the real estate industry is more corrupt than politicians.

#6 PastThePeak on 02.06.19 at 5:13 pm

“In fact, there are solid reasons to expect the two-year plop to continue – unless politicians cave.”
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Well, of course they will cave. High debt & rising housing prices, which were a big problem that T2 and Wild Bill had to jaw bone about 2 years ago, now require regulation changes to turbo charge the market. It is an election year, after all.

The message from OFSI #2 yesterday seemed pretty straight forward & blunt – perhaps a little tweaking, but the stress test is here to stay. Only massive political interference in the banking regulator would change that.

So perhaps a little tweak there, with more specific policy changes like rising amortization allowed, and I also wouldn’t rule out a “millennial” specific measure (age related – like only applies to those under 40…or only for women…).

Which is fine. We need a bit of a dead cat bounce, to add a bit more debt fuel to the fire, before this creaky ship finally keels over with some job losses later 2019 or 2020.

#7 Rosedale Ricky on 02.06.19 at 5:22 pm

2 Tater on 02.06.19 at 4:55 pm
“Over the last year, the average detached in Toronto has lost 100k in value. Throw in 30k in interest and another 6k in property taxes. So, as long as your rent was less than about 11k per month, you were better off renting last year.”

Damn! I rent my Rosedale mansion for 12k a month… We had a party last night and a buddy of mine was bragging that he spent $10 million on a Louis XVI armoire. Another guest exclaimed, “I know folks who haven’t even spent that on a house!!”

#8 JSS on 02.06.19 at 5:22 pm

Brookfield Infrastructure Partners: +6.9% dividend increase

#9 Ex-Cowtown on 02.06.19 at 5:24 pm

FOMO is being replaced by FOLE (Pronounced “Foll-y”). Fear Of Losing Everything.

People are funny; once they see other people getting spanked you can’t talk them into seeing spanking as something that can’t happen to them.

When it comes to $$$ fear of losing is a FAR stronger persuader than fear of not winning.

#10 Jm Keynes on 02.06.19 at 5:30 pm

#63 Goop on 02.05.19 at 8:22 pm
@ #53 From Vancouver

“You mean Communist Romania?
Communism and Socialism are two different things.
Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Japan are socialist nations. So is Canada. That’s why it has such a high standard of living.The hyperbole on this blog against socialism is intellectually embarrassing.”

You still don’t have it right. Canada has a mixed market Keynesian economy. So do the Northern European nations you cite. You are closer to the truth than the whack jobs who think we live in a Communist regime. They need to go to a real Communist gulag and then come back and kiss the Canadian ground they bash.

#11 Slowly Boiling Frogs on 02.06.19 at 5:32 pm

#5 april on 02.06.19 at 5:12 pm

Surely most intelligent people know that the realtors are not concerned about home owners, they only care about their commission, hence wanting government to intervene
—————————————
Also hence, why people should use a flat fee realtor like Purplebricks.ca. If you used all of their different services for any price property it would probably total no more than $2,000. Compare that to the ripoff commission rates.

#12 Terry on 02.06.19 at 5:37 pm

“In the GTA house prices gained enough to pace inflation. No bubble. No crash.”

“No Crash” I agree with. Just a long slow melt in prices taking years to about a couple of decades to capitulate. “No Bubble” a big fail here! I’ll put it to the blog dogs suggesting that Real Estate prices across this land called Canada are overpriced in a range between 30 to 70 percent depending on location. Canadian Real Estate values everywhere are deviating wildly from the mean and have been rising steadily for almost 20 years now. This is not normal healthy market behavior. Record consumer borrowing chasing peaked out bubble prices……what an even bigger fail that behavior is. What an absolute mess our Real Estate market has become. This will take a generation to re-price values back to the mean. How do you go bankrupt?……..slowly at first………………….then all of a sudden.

#13 Smartalox on 02.06.19 at 5:39 pm

TREB asks: Are buyers being stress-tested at interest rate levels that are not realistic?

Let’s see: Mortgage prime is 3.29 to 3.79% for a 5-year fixed. Plus 2% points is 6.29% to 6.79%.

The average interest rate for the last 50 years is what? 6.00%?

Stress test sounds spot-on to me.

Maybe, MAYBE, it could be reduced from 2.00% to 1.75% to 1.50% above prime or contracted rates, consistent with the recent interest rate hikes from the BofC.

But should OSFI (or CMHC, if Kenny is to be believed) eliminate the stress test in its entirety? NO. And it is unrealistic to expect that they will.

#14 Deplorable Dude on 02.06.19 at 5:41 pm

#JSS Brookfield Infrastructure Partners: +6.9% dividend increase.

Yummy! That’s one of mine.

Insane TSX tear so far in 2019. I’m up 8.6% in just over a month…..

#15 Smartalox on 02.06.19 at 5:44 pm

People don’t realize that the stress test was put in place to protect the banks controlled by OSFI from default. The whole intent is to drive those that shouldn’t qualify for bank mortgages to go to other lenders.

If the stress test were really intended to protect borrowers, the stress-test rate would be whatever they’re changing you, PLUS 3% points!

#16 Godth on 02.06.19 at 5:49 pm

I love living just off the 401, outside torana, in Ontarirario. every ten minutes there’s a big box complex for all my consumer needs. if i run out of butter i can reach out my window into my neighbour’s and give his wife a squeeze. we have ford nation and buck a beer. what more could a man want? if houses go down (won’t happen) the province is in the black, so plenty of room for them to pick up the slack. living on easy street in a cultural mecca.

#17 Stone on 02.06.19 at 5:55 pm

Apparently they can also mind-start an Audi by merely gazing at it.

———

Totally awesome! I want to be a realtor now!

#18 For those about to flop... on 02.06.19 at 5:56 pm

Pink Snow falling in Vancouver.

Here’s another one around the 3 million mark trying to get the noose off its neck.

The details…

3541 w 49th ave ,Vancouver.

Paid 3 April 2016

Asking 2.98

Assessment 3.03 down from 3.32

Southlands has always been harder to judge than most Westside suburbs.

Not city,not country but got dragged up by the surrounding areas but most suitable for people that wanted that extra bit of space.

Only 8 detached properties on the market down that way all in the 2-3 million range, so these guys are at the top and Southlands is one of the coldest areas for sales according to Zolo along with a bunch of other SouthWestern suburbs.

A win for these guys would probably involve just paying the expenses.

Use the Springtime air to your advantage.

Don’t choke…

M44BC

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/3541-west-49th-avenue

https://www.rew.ca/insights/93222/3541-w-49th-avenue-vancouver-bc

#19 marcus on 02.06.19 at 6:04 pm

Regarding the State of The Union Address last night. Trump just won the 2020 election. No joke. According to a CBS post address poll 76% were in favor of Trumps speech. 80% were in favor of his approach to the southern border. Canada had better prepare for 8 years of Trump.

Wrong blog. Go away. – Garth

#20 SimplyPut7 on 02.06.19 at 6:06 pm

In the GTA, where six million souls toil, dwell and freeze, there’s no speculation tax.

———-

Did Ford get rid of the speculation tax?

https://www.fin.gov.on.ca/en/bulletins/nest

Foreign buyer tax remains (for now). No spec tax. – Garth

#21 JokersWild on 02.06.19 at 6:07 pm

I sometimes confuse the Toronto Escort Review Board and the Toronto Real Estate Board. They both repeat sweet little nothings, upsell you and take your money.

#22 Godth on 02.06.19 at 6:10 pm

#13 marcus
i was dressed in my uncle sam outfit with a ball gag in my mouth for extra effect. i’ll be so happy to have the strong man rule canada for 8 years. we should get rid of those term limits so it could be longer.

we have so much socialism to privatize in such a short amount of time. i plan on buying shares in the privatized police and military, maybe the fire department too. they should pay good dividends.

#23 Victoria Real Estate Update on 02.06.19 at 6:18 pm

HAS TORONTO’S EPIC HOUSING BUBBLE DISAPPEARED?

Housing price gains (from 2000 to peak):

Toronto…..( 3.5 x) … (more than tripled)
Hamilton….( 3.4 x)
.
.
.
.
Phoenix………( 2.9 x) … (almost tripled)
Los Angeles…(2.8 x).
San Francisco…( 2.6 x) … (more than doubled)
Seattle…………( 2.6 x)
San Diego….….( 2.5 x).
Las Vegas…( 2.35 x)
Miami……..( 2.25 x)

Sources: Teranet’s Index, Case-Shiller Index

After a 19-year policy/debt-induced price run-up in the GTA that saw house prices more than triple (3.5 times), is a small 15%-20% (perhaps) price decline enough to erase Toronto’s epic bubble?

In other words, have gains in incomes caught up to gains in house prices since 2000?

Not so much.

#24 Mattl on 02.06.19 at 6:30 pm

There is usually a lot of doomer talk about Kelowna RE here but Kelowna never shows up in the charts – not big enough of a city. I just looked up debt to income and its in the 160% range, so in line with a place like Halifax.

No idea what will happen with RE here but my guess is a whole lot of years of slow homes sales and a 10-25% melt. You can still pick up a home here for 400K so home prices aren’t necessarily the problem, we do have an income side problem that is offset but a healthy amount of retiree’s and out of province vacationers.

#25 For those about to flop... on 02.06.19 at 6:30 pm

Pink Snow falling in Vancouver.

Hello my old friend.

Whilst looking at the previous case I noticed a house I recognized,an old case that had gone dormant, that I had shelved has woken up on the operating table.

The details…

6267 Dunbar st, Vancouver.

Paid 2.65 May 2016

Originally asking 2.83

Now asking 2.25

Assessment 2.46

So this was one of my earliest cases,they bought in Spring 2016 and when they went to cash out in early 2017 they discovered they had a problem.

I pointed this situation, and many others ,out to people and was told to shut up and sit back down at the kiddies table.

They tied three times to get their money back in 2017 and sat out 2018 waiting for the market to reignite.

It has not.

After discovering all of the addresses, and a lot of them trying, but then realizing it would be a struggle to be made whole, a lot of them did what these guys did and went dormant and decided to play a longer game than anticipated.

The folder I placed all these houses in is labeled “Old sold” referring to the habit of Zolo putting up the old sold date when it becomes dormant.

Such is the size of my current Pink Snow folder, I no longer visit this folder, nor my Possible Pinkies one, as I have no time to process them and if I recognize and old friend like this one and it re-enters the marketplace then I will start all again.

These guys probably got a half decent offer at one stage but rolled the dice and it went off the table.

The Sell Squad is busy trying to Frankenstein the old market back together with a few rusty bolts and telling homeowners and potential buyers what they want to hear.

It’s alive…

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/6267-dunbar-street

#26 West Coast Conspiracy Theorist on 02.06.19 at 6:32 pm

BC ports do not accept drug cartel shipments and send them back to where they came from.

There is no money laundering in BC real estate.

The BC Liberals are not corrupt.

Justin is my 1st cousin.

Everyone in BC declares their income and pays their fair share of tax.

Working class locals make an insane amount of money in Vancouver and keep bidding up the property values to multiple millions of dollars per unit and in turn set off a chain reaction of sellers cashing out, moving to other parts of BC and paying cash for another property, subsequently bidding up those secondary markets.

#27 WUL on 02.06.19 at 6:35 pm

An average price in the GTA of $787,195?

Milan Lucic of the Oilers has no issue with that whatsoever. He is on pace to earn $775K for every goal he scores this year.

He’ll be able to buy eight when the Leafs trade Marner for him following the season.

#28 yvrguy on 02.06.19 at 6:39 pm

#13 Deplorable Dude on 02.06.19 at 5:41 pm

Insane TSX tear so far in 2019. I’m up 8.6% in just over a month…..

/////////////

YAWN. so the TSX kept pace with SPX for a brief moment. Slow clap.

This economy is resting on FIRE. Anyone got some matchsticks and kindle? Or is it the other way around?

#29 AGuyInVancouver on 02.06.19 at 6:42 pm

Looking at the curves Toronto lags about 6 months behind Vancouver. Expect condo prices to decline especially as a tsunami of inventory completes.

#30 Daniel on 02.06.19 at 6:51 pm

Purchaser pays land transfer tax. Double in the kingdom of 416 but a loss none the less.

#31 marcus on 02.06.19 at 6:52 pm

Regarding the State of The Union Address last night. Trump just won the 2020 election. No joke. According to a CBS post address poll 76% were in favor of Trumps speech. 80% were in favor of his approach to the southern border. Canada had better prepare for 8 years of Trump.

Wrong blog. Go away. – Garth

My mistake …. I thought this blog was about economics and real estate. One would think that 8 years of a Trump Admin may have some affect on Canadian economics and Real Estate. Thanks for the clarification.

#32 Nonplused on 02.06.19 at 6:55 pm

The “land transfer tax” is a usurious abomination. So are the commissions. We should move to a European model where everyone rents and houses rarely change hands.

#33 BigAl (Original) on 02.06.19 at 7:04 pm

#1 Midnights on 02.06.19 at 4:55 pm
You wanted government intervention you got it…

https://www.stcatharinesstandard.ca/news-story/9162117-ford-government-considering-ways-for-landlords-to-speed-up-evictions/
_________________________
_________________________

And, you wanted privatization, you got it.

Now to do an eviction, instead of using the court enforcement officers for about $400 flat fee, we landlords will be, by law, required to use a private licensed (code: captive market/monopoly, capped/restrictive licensing) bailiff for $1500 to $3000 or more (price depends on number of bedrooms or sq ft) just like they have in BC.

An eviction will now cost a landlord thousands in direct cash outlay on top of any losses in damages and unpaid rent.

The joys of privatization of gov’t services.

#34 X on 02.06.19 at 7:12 pm

IF the historical 5yr is about 6%, why not cap the stress test at that level (historical average). I mean it doesn’t help a realtor make Audi payments, but if TREB figures house prices are going to advance double that of inflation, why make any changes to help the RE market.

Yes, other than to get re elected…..30 year mortgages as an election promise, won’t really do much considering the stress test has already done it’s work….a hollow promise that won’t help people with minimal downpayments anyways, which is ironically who they would be targeting with those sorts of statements.

#35 Rick on 02.06.19 at 7:13 pm

“Wrong blog. Go away. – Garth”

Ha, ha. Poor Garth. The obvious is painful to some:)

I’d call it more embarrassing. – Garth

#36 JM on 02.06.19 at 7:26 pm

All kidding aside Garth, Trump will get re-elected because the opponent are too busy making sure that everyone gets a turn instead of choosing the right leader who can win. The Dems mayhave great people, however they don’t know how to win.

Watching CNN, the round table discussion is all sneering at how intellectually superior they are but meanwhile Trump plays to his people who actually vote.

#37 416Realtor on 02.06.19 at 7:29 pm

According to statistics half of condos sold in GTA are bought by investors. Then why not let the market balance its supply and demand? Why fuel the fire for temporary gain by few? Stress test is the best thing that happened to keep the market balanced. OSFI should also add stringent underwriting measures and income verification for banks. If mortgages were underwritten according to real income of the applicants market would have adjusted much more accurately. Mortgage fraud is widespread. No one talks about it. It was not long ago home trust was about to go down for the same reason. Mortgage applications are backed mostly by fabricated income documents produced by crooked mortgage brokers. Average house in GTA is close to 1M how much is the income needed to qualify for that? What percentage of the population makes that kind of money? Mortgage underwriting is another area that OSFI needs to look at to keep Real Estate market from becoming a casino. Garth you can edit this message to keep me honest.

This post was edited. – Garth

#38 yvr_lurker on 02.06.19 at 7:31 pm

BC ports do not accept drug cartel shipments and send them back to where they came from.

There is no money laundering in BC real estate.

The BC Liberals are not corrupt.

Justin is my 1st cousin.

Everyone in BC declares their income and pays their fair share of tax.

Working class locals make an insane amount of money in Vancouver and keep bidding up the property values to multiple millions of dollars per unit and in turn set off a chain reaction of sellers cashing out, moving to other parts of BC and paying cash for another property, subsequently bidding up those secondary markets.
——-

This gave me a god laugh…. with irony like this I suggest you would be a great writer for the Onion…..

#39 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.06.19 at 7:37 pm

@#116 Remebrancer
Re Brexit
“Haven’t been paying enough attention, has what happens to non-EU taxation for those sweet Portuguese vacation cottages etc been sorted out?’

+++++
A crisis created by squabbling politicians too gutless to deal with the issues.
So they dump a very complicated referendum issue on the yobs of Limeyland…..
What will happen?
The scary version? No one knows because the idiots in England and the EU cant agree on anything.
What will happen to Brits free medical services in Portugal, France, Spain?
Will they need passports like the old days?
Customs on both sides of the “border” haven’t had to stop and check like the US /Canada border in over a decade. They are grossly understaffed and inexperienced.
With zero trade agreements to complicate things even futher……….
Line-ups for food, fuel, medicine shortages are but a few of the concerns washing over the British Isles.
Will Britain have access to EU police data bases to combat terrorism? And vice versa.
The London Financial center will now follow who’s rules?
Multi billion dollar contracts signed in England are now ?????
Money? What currency will reign? The Euro or the Pound?

Should be interesting to see how big business and the money markets deal with this unnecessary shitshow created by political cowards …..ironically enough…….beginning Friday , March 29th but really cranking up Monday……….. April 1st

#40 Victoria on 02.06.19 at 7:38 pm

It is in all the newspapers that retail sales are way down online and in stores. It is very worrying they say. Well no [email protected] since 70 percent of Canadians own homes and often more than one with massive mortgages. Does not leave much wiggle room to spend. This is going to get ugly.

#41 Brian Ripley on 02.06.19 at 7:41 pm

…the cartel wants buyers to believe prices will rise …close to 2017 levels…Garth

My Toronto, Vancouver and Toronto vs Vancouver Housing charts are up.

Speaking of “…close to 2017”

In Toronto, total residential sales are at the lows and have been bound in a narrow range since mid year 2017…
http://www.chpc.biz/toronto-housing.html

SFD Prices are now at 1Q 2016 levels
T-House Prices are now at 1Q 2017 levels
Condo Prices are now at 1Q 2018 levels

As is happening in Vancouver the high end (SF Detached) prices in Toronto are most at risk.

#42 Blair on 02.06.19 at 7:46 pm

I think you should keep the dog out of the dryer, Garth. Best wishes.

#43 redwing on 02.06.19 at 7:46 pm

test

Fail. – Garth

#44 acdel on 02.06.19 at 8:02 pm

Hog Town certainly is not Van (thank fully), I get the feeling that it will adjust to the market values much quicker then, hmm, whatever is happening on the West Coast, hmm, cough, turn your head the other way, ha, this is getting very interesting. I have my popcorn ready! :)

#45 Barb on 02.06.19 at 8:04 pm

We “sane folks” on the Left Coast are dreading Feb. 19, which is Comrade Horgan’s budget date.

His priority? Reduce poverty.

Could’ve fooled me.
Thought his mandate was to increase it.

#46 acdel on 02.06.19 at 8:18 pm

My apologies, I meant to include this link in my last post; I need a new phone, constant issues, anyways, here it is, what are your thoughts Hog Town?

https://business.financialpost.com/real-estate/toronto-new-home-sales-plunge-as-buyers-balk-at-spiraling-prices

#47 Shawn Allen on 02.06.19 at 8:34 pm

Land Transfer Tax – Why Not?

I paid the land deed transfer tax in Halifax on my first house in 1989. The percentage was 1.25%

In 1990 bought a little house in Edmonton. No land transfer tax. My thought was they should have one, why not? If it moves, tax it. A little tax of 1% or at most 2% would maybe deter a bit of the speculation without being onerous.

It certainly makes more sense than empty house taxes which should be smote by the courts.

Toronto I see is a total of 2% from $55 to $250k

Total 4% from $400k to $2 million.

The tax is double. (Ontario plus Toronto) But why is the province grabbing a land transfer tax in a City? THAT is the problem. Should be municipal only.

Also the transfer taxes in Ontario and Toronto should have been indexed so the brackets rose with average home prices. Or why not just a standard percentage 2% for all or whatever? Municipality and province might be said to be gouging when it is 5% over $2 million especially as home prices rose to the point where $2 million was not rare.

#48 Shego on 02.06.19 at 8:38 pm

I’ve noticed a few detached property projects in Vancouver by Chen Construction and Yong Feng Construction companies that haven’t been touched in at over 4 months, all in various stages of completion, seemingly abandoned. Checked online and no news of either developer having financial difficulties or declaring bankruptcy. Getting familiar 2008 vibes from the construction industry. The number of listed “redevelopment potential” sites keeps growing. Also starting to hear random people in public discuss the housing market implosion. The news media stays relatively quiet, but the speculators already know the the jig is up. A mixture of panic and denial is in the air.

#49 Remembrancer on 02.06.19 at 8:40 pm

#10 Jm Keynes on 02.06.19 at 5:30 pm
#63 Goop on 02.05.19 at 8:22 pm
@ #53 From Vancouver

JM,
Goop and his buddies can’t stop conflating Socialism with Social Democracy b/c their hero keeps comparing affordable medical care to forced collectivization while he and his billionaire buddies fleece away in the time-honored tradition of American carny huckerism…

#50 Midnights on 02.06.19 at 8:49 pm

High income earners renting…

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-02-06/why-are-increasing-number-high-income-americans-shoosing-rent

#51 DON on 02.06.19 at 8:52 pm

https://twitter.com/Laura_E_McLeod/status/1092765884022697985

Story from Vancouver re: the Empty Homes Tax. Couple livid about having to pay tax on 12 empty homes.

On a cold winter’s eve

…He said, “Son, I’ve made a life
Out of readin’ people’s faces
Knowin’ what the cards were
By the way they held their eyes
So if you don’t mind me sayin’
I can see you’re out of aces
For a taste of your whiskey
I’ll give you some advice”

So I handed him my bottle
And he drank down my last swallow
Then he bummed a cigarette
And asked me for a light
And the night got deathly quiet
And his faced lost all expression
He said, “If you’re gonna play the game, boy
You gotta learn to play it right

You’ve got to know when to hold ’em
Know when to fold ’em
Know when to walk away
and Know when to run
You never count your money
Until the dealings done…

(Mr. Kenny Rogers)

#52 Vancouver in the Rearview on 02.06.19 at 8:58 pm

Garth, the West may be pooched as you put it, but there are many of us here in Vancouver who have been following your advice for years, and frankly, we welcome the intervention of the NDP. My family has been priced out of homes that would have easily been affordable to the preceding generation with our extensive level of education and earnings, without gutting my family’s personal finances to be able to do it. You might say ‘be happy renting’, but this doesn’t work so well when you have children who have benefit significantly from not switching day care providers once a year, or changing school catchments every time the landlord decides to sell/move in/renovict/claim personal use but re-post the place up with the rent jacked.

On a related note, you seem to advocate for free markets. I’d like you to help me understand why Canadians rant and rave about health care and how it must be free and privatization is evil, yet we are quite content to have shelter, which is actually more critical in Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, be an combination free-for-all and disaster area? Why is it OK for people to profit from one, but not the other? Both are important to people’s ability to live a nice life, yet one is heavily regulated by policy to have effectively a closed market, and the other meddled with. Explain that one to me, because those of us who work in health care wouldn’t mind the high housing prices if we actually got paid what the market will bear, which as we can see in the United States, is one hell of a lot more money than any of us get paid here.

Canadian health care is a disaster-in-waiting. – Garth

#53 DON on 02.06.19 at 8:59 pm

#5 april on 02.06.19 at 5:12 pm

Surely most intelligent people know that the realtors are not concerned about home owners, they only care about their commission, hence wanting government to intervene and make it easier for people, especially first time buyers, to get into the market. Even Trumps’ son admitted the real estate industry is more corrupt than politicians.
*****
yup…but those intelligent people are buying subpar houses at premium prices. And there are NO heated pools in the backyards…just a west coast ‘mouldy special’.

#54 Tony on 02.06.19 at 9:03 pm

The last two jobs or unemployment reports out of America were completely bogus. It seems interest rates are all based on fictitious data coming out of America. Trump and the cartel would dream up anything with the Mueller investigation coming down to crunch time.

#55 Remembrancer on 02.06.19 at 9:05 pm

#39 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.06.19 at 7:37 pm

Nice summary, I think you left out Eire / Northern Ireland hard-soft border as part of the shit show, at some point the youth of GB will realize that those pesky employment laws are a cramp from the outside looking in and there is of course all those chalets, summer homes and Portuguese cottages that were such a deal before. Oh, and sluffing through the non-EU customs lane with the rest of us unwashed – they’ll love that…

Staying real, Pound and Euro is not new…

#56 Remembrancer on 02.06.19 at 9:11 pm

While the Kingdom of the 416 has double land transfer taxes, it conveniently papers over the $-for-$ cheaper property taxes compared to Halton-Peel, York and Durham Regions encircling them whenever the question of money comes up…

#57 Tony on 02.06.19 at 9:18 pm

Re: #31 marcus on 02.06.19 at 6:52 pm

Trump is gone around mid-year this year. Pelosi will be the interim president.

#58 DON on 02.06.19 at 9:19 pm

#10 Jm Keynes on 02.06.19 at 5:30 pm

#63 Goop on 02.05.19 at 8:22 pm
@ #53 From Vancouver

“You mean Communist Romania?
Communism and Socialism are two different things.
Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Japan are socialist nations. So is Canada. That’s why it has such a high standard of living.The hyperbole on this blog against socialism is intellectually embarrassing.”

You still don’t have it right. Canada has a mixed market Keynesian economy. So do the Northern European nations you cite. You are closer to the truth than the whack jobs who think we live in a Communist regime. They need to go to a real Communist gulag and then come back and kiss the Canadian ground they bash.
************
Exactly

Socialism, Communism and capitalism aren’t bad in principle. It’s the dic…tator(s) that taint the concepts and make them four letter words.

Kinda like liberal, conservative and democrat again it’s all about the DIC…TATOR.

#59 yvr_lurker on 02.06.19 at 9:27 pm

#52 Vancouver in Rearview

——

Your views parallel my own on this topic. Very eloquently put. If a young professional couple who after graduating from years and years of study, being at the top of their class to get into the program in the first place (dentistry,
MBA, medical, graduate program in engineering, etc…) coming out earning 300K combined in there mid-30’s, has not a prayer to buy a SFH in YVR on their own merit (without a whopping inheritance or family gift), we have in my view a real generational inequity….. and I am sorry, the answer is not to move to Vernon or Chibougamou….. it is to lobby to elect people to make a more level playing field with regards to housing for the next generation…..

#60 Let It Be on 02.06.19 at 9:44 pm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IVHtZrFUrBs
#46 acdel – Its too little and much too late to stop it all from blowing up. The fraud and corruption will eventually surface, and catch all by surprise. My answer is simple; just let it be!

#61 adee on 02.06.19 at 9:48 pm

The problem with your analysis GT is that you always start with your conclusion and then try to support it to complain about someone else.

The stress test works fine and in the long term will have positive outcomes. As opposed to 30 or 40 year amortizations or no money down purchases or no insurance, which were obviously bad ideas.

People are looking at it incorrectly. The nominal borrowing interest rate in Canada is now “bankrate+stresstest”. Then, the government allows banks to exclude the “stresstest” amounts for businesses, to encourage business investment. So that hopefully stimulates business growth. And the government allows house buyers to borrow at the lower rate too, as long as they’ve qualified at the nominal rate. So that is a “bonus” to house buyers. The real losers are savers – as always.

As for housing, the reality for Toronto and other major cities is that there are going to be more and more people living in tall buildings. So either you own it or rent it – your choice. If you want to own a condo go for it – the old ideas of owning land beneath your house will obviously no longer apply in big crowded cities anywhere in the world. Buildings are more efficient for an economy and environment in so many ways.

In the short term, as people move into buildings, there will be pressure on purchase prices and rents – BUT AS YOU SAY – there are 20K units coming on the market in the GTA, and that will push prices back down. The free market can deliver enough housing and good pricing, if the government gets out of the way and allows quality projects to proceed.

As for the fact that house prices are down, well, that’s what the policies are intended to do – so now the people who meet the criteria for owning a home can buy one at a true price, not a shortage price. Not everyone gets to comfortably own a home any more; only successful people, and people who bought in to the market 20 or 30 years ago, and people who move to locations where houses are affordable … simple.

#62 Godth on 02.06.19 at 9:48 pm

…and now the crying starts. manic then depressive. there’s no end to the irresponsibility of 2008. who would have guessed that these new build condos that have been thrown up everywhere would structurally fail?
Expert warns Australia could turn into slums in 20 years | 60 Minutes Australia
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vRSdiq3sOTc

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-02-05/vancouver-home-prices-post-biggest-drop-six-years
i’m moving to monaco, no taxes, plenty of successful people and a big, beautiful laundromat.

#63 acdel on 02.06.19 at 10:01 pm

Completely off topic but very interesting on how the mind reacts to different challenges. Especially Van real estate, ha,ha! :)

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-6676225/Scientists-discover-brain-patterns-human-consciousness.html

#64 DON on 02.06.19 at 10:06 pm

#45 Barb on 02.06.19 at 8:04 pm

We “sane folks” on the Left Coast are dreading Feb. 19, which is Comrade Horgan’s budget date.

His priority? Reduce poverty.

Could’ve fooled me.
Thought his mandate was to increase it.

*************
Is that you Christy?

Out today BC Hydro has 5.5Billion in deferred accounts that we taxpayers are on the hook for. Under your “Best Place on Earth” Corrupt (Proven) BC LIBERAL/Socreds/Harper Cons

Remove head from sands.

…cognitive dissonance runs deep in this one. FFS! ha ha ha ha – best laugh in a while.

Last post. Couldn’t resist the volley.

#65 Drill Baby Drill on 02.06.19 at 10:20 pm

I really do not see how with the high cost of living in TO & VAN as well as a prolonged high cost housing environment can these markets sustain themselves in 2019. At some point something has to give among the consumers. Even if interest rates do not move there will be a painful end to 2019.

#66 Pal Hal on 02.06.19 at 10:20 pm

#27 WUL on 02.06.19 at 6:35 pm
An average price in the GTA of $787,195?

“Milan Lucic of the Oilers has no issue with that whatsoever. He is on pace to earn $775K for every goal he scores this year.He’ll be able to buy eight when the Leafs trade Marner for him following the season.”

That’s the best line of the year! It would go down as the worst trade in NHL history and lead to riots in Hogtown…

#67 For those about to flop... on 02.06.19 at 10:20 pm

Less than assessed.

Developers are hoping the city goes duplex mad, and while this one in East Van still went for decent coin, it couldn’t get anywhere near assessed value.

The details…

1262 Nanaimo st,Vancouver.

Sold 938k January 2019

Originally asking 1.19

Assessment 1.38

2018-08-01 : $1,198,000
2018-10-18 : $1,088,000
2018-11-27 : $1,048,000

So the buyer got 32% off the City of Vancouver recommended retail price.

Please don’t write me, as others have done, and said no such thing exists.

That folks, is a joke.

Negative real estate news, served up in a positive manner, remember?

It’s not the end of the world,although it might feel like it for some people.

Things are going to tighten up, and in certain segments, slow right down.

It’s a marathon.

Share the information.

Stay loose my friends…

M44BC

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/1262-nanaimo-street

***Also, as reported the other day on Pink Snow after A.B helped me,I have now seen this result with my own eyes.

This Van Special on Main st went for 1.3,assessment 1.39,after asking 990k

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/5945-main-street

#68 Dan on 02.06.19 at 10:21 pm

#41 Brian Ripley

Thanks for the great site.

Looking at the long term charts:

Calgary was historically about 50% the price of Vancouver and 66% the price of Toronto. (ie. 200k house in Calgary was 300k in Toronto and 400k in Vancouver – going back to late 90’s – early 2000’s).

Seems like now Calgary is about 50% of Toronto and 35% of Vancouver.

Do you see these converging to long term averages?

#69 JM Keynes on 02.06.19 at 10:29 pm

#49 Remembrancer

Yep, you summed them up well. They have swallowed the alt right Kool-Aid despite reality being something entirely different….

#70 Ronaldo on 02.06.19 at 10:36 pm

TSX up 14% since the Christmas Eve bottom. My 20% prediction for 2019 may come sooner than I thought.

I told you – never exit an asset class. – Garth

#71 Vision on 02.06.19 at 10:55 pm

april on 02.06.19 at 5:12 pm
Surely most intelligent people know that the realtors are not concerned about home owners, they only care about their commission, hence wanting government to intervene and make it easier for people, especially first time buyers, to get into the market. Even Trumps’ son admitted the real estate industry is more corrupt than politicians.
……
You would be surprised. Most people believe their realtors. ( except for people who read this blog)

#72 Julian on 02.06.19 at 10:56 pm

Hi garth, Canadian health care a disaster in waiting, can you explain more please?
Thx
Julian

#73 cramar on 02.06.19 at 11:23 pm

First!

That is Windsor/Essex is the top spot in Canada if you want to sell your house FAST! Average 12 days on market.

Days On Market: Here’s How Long It Will Take You To Sell A House In 63 Canadian Markets

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2019/02/06/days-on-market-canada_a_23661049/

#74 Dolce Vita on 02.06.19 at 11:44 pm

You may be correct or not Garth about 416 RE et. al. (a.k.a., Trauma, ON).

The Blog is full of wishful thinking (not your own) by others you write about.

416 RE et. al. price changes lag YVR RE by about 9 months of so if you care to look at history. Toronto’s in a “dead cat bounce” for now. If so, the piper will be paid in 2nd Qtr 2019.

The chart below, not recent, makes the point (there are more recent charts and yes, Toronto is still dutifully following YVR RE to the end of 2018 – it always has historically).

In the end, as always, Cdn. Consumers decide. They’re scared. The psychology is negative. GDP has been skirting with recession. Dec. 2018 GDP will be a wash at best (the high point of the Retail season had the lowest sales in 3 years and then there was oil). Jan. 2019 GDP likely to be no better due to the cold weather.

If so, that will make 4/5 months of negative GDP growth. Conjecture? We’ll find out right in the middle of the peak RE season, how fitting, how ironic that will be.

The EYE OPENER number from you yesterday was that MORTGAGES DOWN 50% at the Banks this past year.

The 10-12% Stress Test disqualified buyers did not create that metric nor did YVR RE on its own nor did disqualified buyers going to Private Lenders.

The RE party’s over Garth even in Capitalist Bastion 416 et. al.

I want to believe it is not so for the sake and well being of many Canadians, but other than wishful thinking ALL of the headwinds that matter are negative and history shows that ends up in recession especially in an economy heavily dependent on RE.

In Canada, they go hand in hand…even in Trauma, ON. Not even Tory Blue Ford can sweet talk his way out of economic fundamentals (nor can you Garth and that disarming humour that you have).

https://i.imgur.com/9GCFKfj.jpg

#75 Yellow Vest on 02.07.19 at 12:01 am

“There’s scant resentment of offshore buyers. Nobody cares about money-laundering, if there is any. ”

You must be joking right? Canada is one of the worst money laundering countries in the first world. Why do you think so many people want to move here. Crime pays.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-canadas-money-laundering-problem-may-be-much-worse-than-imagined/

#76 Yellow Vest on 02.07.19 at 12:12 am

“West Coast Conspiracy Theorist on 02.06.19 at 6:32 pm

BC ports do not accept drug cartel shipments and send them back to where they came from.

There is no money laundering in BC real estate.

The BC Liberals are not corrupt.

Justin is my 1st cousin.

Everyone in BC declares their income and pays their fair share of tax.

Working class locals make an insane amount of money in Vancouver and keep bidding up the property values to multiple millions of dollars per unit and in turn set off a chain reaction of sellers cashing out, moving to other parts of BC and paying cash for another property, subsequently bidding up those secondary markets.”

BEST COMMENT EVER on this blog as it concerns YVR.

#77 Dolce Vita on 02.07.19 at 12:16 am

Canadian health care is a disaster-in-waiting. – Garth

It has been since the early 90’s.

All that has changed is $$$ compliance to Doctor’s (almost removed by Morneau), nurses, etc.

2 years ago in S. Italy, Puglia (stunning, the heel of Italia and its garden) got rear ended at high speed on a highway just outside of Gallipoli (stunning geography, again).

If you want a Ferrari, Lamborghini, Formula 1 ride, just dial 112 in Italia. That’s what I got on the ride in to Gallipoli’s hospital.

Within 1 to 2 hours this happened (they suspected I had a cracked vertebrae):

-Blood sample results (they stuck me in the Maserati Ambulance, wanted to make sure I hadn’t been drinking, I wasn’t).
-CAT Scan.
-X-Rays.
-Admitted.
-In an Orthopedic ward bed.
-Visited by the Chief Orthopedic Surgeon (and entourage) and results discussed.
-A very tasty meal served for lunch (this is after all, Italia).

Good luck with the above in Canada. You have to be near death and even then, unlikely you will get that type of service. This Cdn. could not believe how good it was after having seen how his dad was treated in AB, 1990 (died 1 month later of cancer, spent 8 hours in a hallway cot just outside emergency). My Mother in YVR 2015 not that much better an experience either.

N. Italian’s aghast at healthcare in S. Italy. As if, compared to Canada.

Why they are #2 in the World for Healthcare and Canada #30 (USA #37).

The disaster has already happened Garth, it’s just that Cdn’s are compliant (and smug) comparing themselves to the American’s.

#78 steerage steward on 02.07.19 at 12:38 am

Garth isn’t wrong, just more clear eyed then most, that is to say early.

Note that this is the first time this URL is 404

https://www.rebgv.org/monthly-reports

#79 Canada in debt on 02.07.19 at 12:40 am

I wonder if ever house prices are going down. With the quantity of migrants every year, JT2 inviting everybody here and lack of regulation for overseas money. Worst case, prices will go up same as inflation.

#80 Smoking Man on 02.07.19 at 12:50 am

About a month ago my wife says to me. You where right about selling our house. She came across GF with no idea that I grace the comment section every now and then.

She loves Garth, and Bandit. Has no idea who Dotathy is. Thinking they have a lot in common.

I ask her do you ever read the comments.

She said a few times, there are too many crazy people. So I don’t bother.

I asked her what about Smoking Man.

Her reply, total loser, I can’t believe he’s married.

People that’s what gambling is all about.

#81 You know on 02.07.19 at 2:39 am

Garth..I wonder if the competition buearu notices??

#82 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.07.19 at 3:09 am

An average price in the GTA of $787,195?

Milan Lucic of the Oilers has no issue with that whatsoever. He is on pace to earn $775K for every goal he scores this year.

He’ll be able to buy eight when the Leafs trade Marner for him following the season.
———
Lucic is the Anti Gretzky:
Go where the buck was.
Skates like the Hunchback of Notredame.
A disgrace to the new game of hockey.
And the Oilers are stuck with his 6.5 million contract.

#83 The Real Mark on 02.07.19 at 4:26 am

“#54 Tony on 02.06.19 at 9:03 pm
The last two jobs or unemployment reports out of America were completely bogus. “

I agree, and similar nonsense going on in Canada. And the implication of unemployment numbers being stated artificially low is that interest rates are artificially high. The CPI numbers are making this abundantly clear, as is the yield curve which is flat as a pancake and even minorly inverted. If unemployment were truly low as the official figures would like to imply, there would be a lot more inflationary pressure.

The other big elephant in the room is that most of the alleged ‘job creation’ has been in low-end service sector jobs. University grads’ prospects have been decimated pretty much since the early 2000s.

#84 Hurricane Hazel on 02.07.19 at 6:15 am

#77 Dolca Vita

Sorry to burst your bubble on Italian health care but my mother-in-law was misdiagnosed this summer in Italy while on vacation and almost died. The meds she was given were thrown in the trash can immediately when her cardiologist in Canada saw them. Immediately. She has also been given cancer treatments at Credit Valley in Mississauga and it has been world class. Another family member received world class treatment at Princess Margaret with excellent results. All this Canadian health care bashing would make Tommy Douglas turn over in his grave.

#85 Howard on 02.07.19 at 6:24 am

As per Steve Saretsky.

Purchaser motivation for condos in the Vancouver area, specifically Burnaby in this case.

2012 – 89% of condos purchased for end users to live in, 11% as investments

2016-2018 – 33% of condos purchased for end users to live in, 67% (!) as investments

https://vancitycondoguide.com/shades-of-miami-2007/

#86 Stan Brooks on 02.07.19 at 6:28 am

#77 Dolce Vita on 02.07.19 at 12:16 am

Canadian health care is a disaster-in-waiting. – Garth

——————-

Waiting times for specialists in GTA could be 9-12 months unless ‘urgent’ or ‘priority’ (flexible definitions apply here, as with anything Canadian, including tax interpretations of ‘reasonability’, interpretations of imaginary ‘spirits of the law’ vs, the letter of the law.)

Spent multiple 5 digits on US health care due to our wonderful ‘free health care’ system not really accessible exactly when you need it, otherwise it is fantastic/on paper).

It takes exceptional ignorance to take pride in it, but hey, this is the material that we got. Have to deal with it.

#87 ww1 on 02.07.19 at 6:58 am

#57 Tony on 02.06.19 at 9:18 pm

Trump is gone around mid-year this year.
Pelosi will be the interim president.

===============================
Ummm … maybe not.
Mike Pense is next in line once 45 is gone.

#88 Stan Brooks on 02.07.19 at 7:01 am

#84 Hurricane Hazel on 02.07.19 at 6:15 am

European health care is far superior to ours. That ranking is not Dolce Vita’s ranking, it is an international health care ranking.

You are just too ignorant to acknowledge the reality.
8-12 hours waiting in North York General emergency could help you, just as s start.

You list 2 positive experiences, i can list 20 negative, once you get to 20 come back here and we will discuss in details.

#89 Asterix1 on 02.07.19 at 7:46 am

#73 cramar on 02.06.19 at 11:23 pm

Days On Market: Here’s How Long It Will Take You To Sell A House In 63 Canadian Markets

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2019/02/06/days-on-market-canada_a_23661049/
___________________________________________

The person who wrote this article has no clue about RE Cartel tactics.

Days on market (DOM) mean absolutely nothing when agents/sellers can continually relist a property endless number of times in a given period.

You keep seeing stuff like this…

A house sold in GTA in 12 DOM, yet, it was relisted 5 times in 10 months, with no breaks in between. The real DOM should be close to 300 days!

#90 Dolce Vita on 02.07.19 at 7:56 am

#86 Stan Brooks

It can always get worse Stan, still better than being bankrupted as would happen in the Excited States of America.

———————————————–

#84 Hurricane Hazel

You’ve already said that and I hate to bust “your bubble” but whom would you trust: #30 on the WHO list or #2?

I’ll take #2 thanks.

They use prescribed pharmaceuticals based on your DNA analysis. Ask the Mother-in-Law if they prescribed treatment based on her DNA analysis?

Probably why they threw the drugs away in Canada…didn’t know any better.

Quick article about Italian oncology which is one of the best in Europe (use Google Translate).

https://www.fondazioneveronesi.it/magazine/articoli/oncologia/in-italia-la-cura-dei-tumori-e-tra-le-migliori-deuropa

And here is the best cancer treatment center in Italy:

http://www.affaritaliani.it/milano/tumori-int-di-milano-il-miglior-istituto-oncologico-italia-457399.html

—————————–

I get gnarly when smug #30 healthcare recipients, that know no better, dis the #2 healthcare system in the World (more than 1 report late last year put Italy at #1 in the World as France had slipped to #2 in its service).

#1 or #30?

Plus, the foods better in Italian hospitals (no GMO, steroids or antibiotics to drop a horse).

Let’s all vote…Canada or Italia?

#91 Headhunter on 02.07.19 at 8:08 am

smoke and mirrors in the “big smoke?” People with skin in the game need prices to stick. Pretty depressing if you have to keep paying for an home that is going down in value.

Im sticking with my 50% price correction. Who is left to buy these homes? I keep hearing the home ownership rate is already at 70%

Manufacturing is down. Cuts WILL be made to Education and Healthcare. Hell Gov’t in general. Where are these newly unemployed people going to get a gig that pays the same as the last one?

Thats what GM, Campbells (add may more to the list) former employees are thinking. I may never get another job that pays what this one did.

50%

#92 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.07.19 at 8:24 am

Hmmmm.

Will Britain just be the first country to leave the EU on Mar 29th?

The EU Parliament in Brussels…….
Another huge layer of political bureaucracy hated by a vast majority of Europeans.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-italy/france-recalls-italy-ambassador-after-worst-verbal-onslaught-since-the-war-idUSKCN1PW1GJ

Italy’s increasing obstinance in actually balancing a budget violates EU rules and finding external “enemies” helps keep the pisanos occupied. Nothing like a national vote for a new party every 18 months to keep the masses amused.

Will France’s unpopular Macron use an EU Referendum like Britain to regain popularity in the polls?

Will Germany’s retiring leader Merkel create a huge vacuum causing another coalition govt endlessly squabbling over EU payments to the likes of Greece, etc.

Will the EU Eastern Bloc countries slowing turning into dictatorships be kicked out of the EU?

Only Russia’s Putin knows for sure……

#93 Copyright & Disclaimer on 02.07.19 at 8:28 am

Copyright date is all good but I notice the disclaimer statement is restricted to a single author, our esteemed blog host – he of the… – and the statement does not reference guest posters such as the stalwart minions of RJ whose missives we have come to revere and love as much as those of the Great Gartho himself.

Of course, this begs the question as to the existence of said minions, bringers of joy and light they may be. Indeed, are these holy interlocutors just figments of the Great Gartho’s imagination? No, in Garth we trust.

#94 Dominoes Lining Up on 02.07.19 at 8:30 am

Canadian health care is a disaster-in-waiting. – Garth
—————————————————————

This will become a much bigger elephant in the room soon. I am guessing it’s another election cycle away from becoming the predominant issue.

Already in Ontario, the new government is gutting health care-related programs and seeking to privatize the health system, one sad option to deal with the upcoming crises in health care.

https://www.thestar.com/politics/provincial/2019/02/06/ontario-autism-program-overhaul-aims-to-target-wait-list.html

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ndp-healthcare-leak-1.5004685

#95 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.07.19 at 8:31 am

@#85 Howard

Interesting stats and comparison to Miami.

This Spring and Summer could be a bloodbath.

I know several Boomers that leveraged their houses to either “invest” in condos where Brat 1 or Brat 2 could live while the condo value went uppa,uppa,uppa.

Or just to rent to a stranger.

Could be more than a few Boomers working til they die when this ponzie pops…..

#96 russell on 02.07.19 at 8:33 am

Deal with mortgage brokers every day… yesterday broker tells me in 20 years he has never seen this many deals on his desk… he said 500… for a feb… 10% rise in prices he said in certain areas of the gta this year, while north gta goes flat… 150,000 people each year arriving in gta will keep prices rising… what to believe???

#97 Godth on 02.07.19 at 8:38 am

#90 Dolce Vita
i vote for the ndrangheta and camorra. lets go to napoli, the garden of italia, for a healthy margherita loaded with dioxins. we’ll just throw the trash on the roadside. bella.
The Mafia Is Trashing Italy… Literally (Part 1)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vBHNmw0A80M

#98 Hurricane Hazel on 02.07.19 at 8:38 am

#90 Dolce Vita

I cite an real example that took place this past summer. The meds were trashed because they were killing her and not correct. Sorry the Canadian cardiologist knew exactly what he was doing. Keep your Italian medical system and I will keep Canada’s. I have encountered nothing but world class health care in very, very serious medical issues in Canada. I have been to Italy numerous times over the past 50 years and have relatives all over Italy. I know the country well and I wouldn’t trade Canada for it ever. Nice place to vacation I will grant but when for the last five years the Italian Film Festival in Toronto has had movies on Italy’s economic plight as a major theme you know there is something wrong. This year we saw a movie with the sad title, translated, There is No Hope For Our Youth in Italy. I will stick to Canada on multiple levels as do my Italian relatives in Canada who know Italy inside out…

#99 D-Recession is here on 02.07.19 at 8:42 am

BOC confirms recession.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/recent-loonie-weakness-will-support-economy-boc-s-lane-says-1.1210004

Desperate Liberals spew nonsense and lies. Trump announces juggernaut economy while Trudeau has his knife out for Canada.

There is no recession on the horizon. Look at the TSX as a leading indicator. – Garth

#100 George on 02.07.19 at 8:45 am

To all the communists, socialists (yes, you need to be grouped together) and left-wing zealots out there;

Alberta will soon be back to prosperity as the UCP party shows its dominance in the next election. Rachel Notley and her off the chart socialist party with failed socialist-environmentalist policies will be expunged as a one term wonder.

The daily machinations of a province or a country is more than ideology or an economic model…it is a business. When Albertans elect a leader like Notley with no business or common sense and her goofy wide-eyed staring at Justin Trudeau then there is an inevitable descension into darkness.

Suicide, Divorce and Repossession rates are up significantly in Alberta. Is this the prosperity you talk about? The irony of socialism – hurting the people they are trying to help.

Why do you all want to be so equal? Is it your lack of ability or your lack of ambition? Are the people that get rich off of socialism and environmentalism more equal?

Many Albertans talk about the Socialist Bermuda Triangle – Nenshi – Notley – Trudeau. Descending into the abyss.

If socialism elicits prosperity, why has it been an utter failure with repeated high debt and deficit levels. In the wake of a socialist government inevitably a right wing government has to come in and clean up the mess.

Get out of the dark ages and see the light of the new populist movement emanating across Canada. There are enlightened right-wing leaders being elected in Canada that can brighten your existence if only you but open your eyes.

#101 Spectacle on 02.07.19 at 8:56 am

#7 Rosedale Ricky on 02.06.19 at 5:22 pm
2 Tater on 02.06.19 at 4:55 pm
“Over the last year, the average detached in Toronto has lost 100k in value. Throw in 30k in interest and another 6k in property taxes. So, as long as your rent was less than about 11k per month, you were better off renting last year.”

Damn! I rent my Rosedale mansion for 12k a month… We had a party last night and a buddy of mine was bragging that he spent $10 million on a Louis XVI armoire. Another guest exclaimed, “I know folks who haven’t even spent that on a house!!”

———————(::)—————–
I think $10 million for a french Armoire is a little rich at this time in the market.
Wife has me assembling those IKEA Kaallaaax (spellings?) furniture units befor the Inlaws arrive for a month. Think they are $180 plus tax each. My 3 year old gets a vanilla Cone too, $1 !

Just a thought on the South lands for $2.4 million. Big difference than “Vancouver south” and “Southlands”(where horses are outside your kitchen window). Start at about $ 10 million ….no Armoire included in that.

Still pretty much seriously Going Down the pipe in YVR!

#102 RESPECT on 02.07.19 at 8:59 am

#80 Smoking Man on 02.07.19 at 12:50 am
About a month ago my wife says to me. You where right about selling our house. She came across GF with no idea that I grace the comment section every now and then.

She loves Garth, and Bandit. Has no idea who Dotathy is. Thinking they have a lot in common.

I ask her do you ever read the comments.

She said a few times, there are too many crazy people. So I don’t bother.

I asked her what about Smoking Man.

Her reply, total loser, I can’t believe he’s married.

People that’s what gambling is all about.

*******

I like her!

#103 Howard on 02.07.19 at 9:04 am

We now know why the Justice Minister was demoted.

Some very serious corruption allegations against the PMO.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-pmo-pressed-justice-minister-to-abandon-prosecution-of-snc-lavalin/

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s office attempted to press Jody Wilson-Raybould when she was justice minister to intervene in the corruption and fraud prosecution of Montreal engineering and construction giant SNC-Lavalin Group Inc., sources say, but she refused to ask federal prosecutors to make a deal with the company that could prevent a costly trial.

SNC-Lavalin has sought to avoid a criminal trial on fraud and corruption charges stemming from an RCMP investigation into its business dealings in Libya…

Sources say Ms. Wilson-Raybould, who was justice minister and attorney-general until she was shuffled to Veterans Affairs early this year, came under heavy pressure to persuade the Public Prosecution Service of Canada to change its mind.

Sources say officials from Mr. Trudeau’s office, whom they did not identify, had urged Ms. Wilson-Raybould, Canada’s first Indigenous justice minister, to press the public prosecution office to abandon the court proceedings.

Ms. Wilson-Raybould trusted the judgment of the public prosecutor and did not believe it was proper for the attorney-general to intervene, especially if there could be any suggestion of political interference, sources say…

#104 Tater on 02.07.19 at 9:23 am

#86 Stan Brooks on 02.07.19 at 6:28 am
#77 Dolce Vita on 02.07.19 at 12:16 am

Canadian health care is a disaster-in-waiting. – Garth

——————-

Waiting times for specialists in GTA could be 9-12 months unless ‘urgent’ or ‘priority’ (flexible definitions apply here, as with anything Canadian, including tax interpretations of ‘reasonability’, interpretations of imaginary ‘spirits of the law’ vs, the letter of the law.)

Spent multiple 5 digits on US health care due to our wonderful ‘free health care’ system not really accessible exactly when you need it, otherwise it is fantastic/on paper).

It takes exceptional ignorance to take pride in it, but hey, this is the material that we got. Have to deal with it.
————————————————————-

No one could write you a Viagra script in Canada?

Stupid comment. Wait times are growing and scores of people cannot find a primary health care provider, from BC to NS. – Garth

#105 El Joko on 02.07.19 at 9:43 am

Garth’s politics are again informing his analysis, rather than the other way around. There is a bubble in Toronto, there’s just not been enough pressure to pop it.

And if you think people don’t resent foreigners in Ontario, you haven’t been paying attention to the Ontario PCs at the grassroots level. People don’t want immigrants. People want houses.

Finally, Toronto doesn’t have as many rich Chinese – never mind per capita – as Vancouver.

Once again, you’ll likely ignore a deep dive into the data on foreign ownership in YVR, preferring to stick with what suits your politics.

https://globalnews.ca/news/4301766/vancouver-foreign-buyers-study/

My politics are to treat people as I wish to be treated. Try it. – Garth

#106 BillyBob on 02.07.19 at 10:01 am

#90 Dolce Vita on 02.07.19 at 7:56 am

I get gnarly when smug #30 healthcare recipients, that know no better, dis the #2 healthcare system in the World (more than 1 report late last year put Italy at #1 in the World as France had slipped to #2 in its service).

#1 or #30?

Plus, the foods better in Italian hospitals (no GMO, steroids or antibiotics to drop a horse).

Let’s all vote…Canada or Italia?

===================================

I’m a longterm expat, and not particularly enamoured of many ways things are done in Canada, but it’s pretty funny that you get hissy about smugness when pretty much every other one of your posts is another self-congratulatory bore about your supposed dolce vita in Italia. I’ve been many times myself, it does have some amazing aspects, but it sure as hell isn’t anywhere near as perfect as you constantly blather on about. The negative stereotypes abound just as much as the positive.

I know lots of former Italians who’ve made their home in Canada. Pretty clear how they “voted”. Former Canadians relocating to Italy, let’s see, there’s…you?

The world has much to offer outside of the borders of either country. Give the pissing contest a rest.

#107 Mattl on 02.07.19 at 10:26 am

#59 yvr_lurker on 02.06.19 at 9:27 pm
#52 Vancouver in Rearview

——

Your views parallel my own on this topic. Very eloquently put. If a young professional couple who after graduating from years and years of study, being at the top of their class to get into the program in the first place (dentistry,
MBA, medical, graduate program in engineering, etc…) coming out earning 300K combined in there mid-30’s, has not a prayer to buy a SFH in YVR on their own merit (without a whopping inheritance or family gift), we have in my view a real generational inequity….. and I am sorry, the answer is not to move to Vernon or Chibougamou….. it is to lobby to elect people to make a more level playing field with regards to housing for the next generation…..

—————————————–

If you have that income level and have saved an appropriate downpayment – and don’t have 500K in student loans – there were lots of opportunities to buy homes in YVR.

1.2MM would be 4:1 and median home price was under that up till about 2014. And its now headed back to that, if not there already. So lets drop the canard that you, at 300K, haven’t been able to buy a home in YVR. When the dust settles in this thing there was a 3-5 year period where it was prudent to rent, 2014-2018.

#108 Damifino on 02.07.19 at 10:37 am

#79 Canada in debt

I wonder if ever house prices are going down.
—————————————-

Good news on that front in Vancouver. Houses that were extremely unaffordable are now only highly unaffordable.

#109 the ryguy - In cabo on 02.07.19 at 10:41 am

#86 Stan Brooks on 02.07.19 at 6:28 am

Im going to steal that line, VERY well said!

I leave Canada every winter and people from other countries always ask me about Canadian health care, they are always shocked when they learn its awful.

“It takes exceptional ignorance to take pride in it” Thats a perfect summary, 10/10.

#110 Frieda on 02.07.19 at 10:44 am

OMG George – finally someone on this site that tells it the way it is!

Why should the hard working honest people of Alberta be subjected to this lazy socialist nonsense!!

Its time for a new government not only in Alberta but in Canada.

As many newspaper columnists are saying Justin Trudeau is tearing Canada apart with his left wing agenda.

#111 Jennifer on 02.07.19 at 10:58 am

Well said George…

Enough of the drawing in the Me Too generation with the laziness of socialism!

This plaque that was emanating across Canada that fosters high divorce and suicide rates needs to be fully purged!

I am a government social worker and I can see the damage done by these archaic socialist policies.

People need to work – not be lazy!

#112 Lillooet, BC on 02.07.19 at 11:06 am

#106 BillyBob on 02.07.19 at 10:01 am
#90 Dolce Vita on 02.07.19 at 7:56 am

***************

Dolce Vita is under siege today

There is at least one thing that Italy should do better — discrimination against foreigners seems the norm!

Many or some Italians firmly believe Italy is second only to the USA.

#113 Hurricane Hazel on 02.07.19 at 11:10 am

#101 Billy Bob

Your comments are spot on. Life is good in Italy if you have already made your money outside of Italy and just live there on your wealth. That I will grant.

#114 Yellow Vest on 02.07.19 at 11:21 am

“Tony on 02.06.19 at 9:18 pm
Re: #31 marcus on 02.06.19 at 6:52 pm

Trump is gone around mid-year this year. Pelosi will be the interim president.”

Find a new drug dealer or doctor fast !!

#115 Ronaldo on 02.07.19 at 11:21 am

#57 Tony on 02.06.19 at 9:18 pm
Re: #31 marcus on 02.06.19 at 6:52 pm

Trump is gone around mid-year this year. Pelosi will be the interim president.

—————————————————————

O M G…………that is your best one yet.

#116 dharma bum on 02.07.19 at 11:22 am

I think that regardless of “year over year” sales data and prices (increases or decreases), the average and median prices of houses in the GTA have peaked into a range that no matter what these short term fluctuations are (5%, 10%, 15%, or even 20%) up or down, the fact remains that houses in the GTA are, and will remain, in any practical sense of the term, largely unaffordable to the average Joe.

High income earners (few that they are), those with intergenerational wealth transfers coming to them (inheritance moolah), and wealthy immigrants are the only people that will truly be able to “afford” GTA homes.

The GTA is a city that has become one of those places (like other cities in the world have become) where the cost of residential real estate got super high, and will stay relatively high and largely unaffordable notwithstanding the short term volatility of the housing market.

Even if GTA houses “never go up” from this point on (hypothetically), or decrease by another 10%-15% over the next decade, they are still super high priced, and not realistically affordable relative to incomes which will likely remain stagnant (or even decrease relative to inflation) over the same period of time.

Those that talk about waiting on the sidelines until GTA houses become “affordable” once again are seriously misguided.

If a realistically priced home is what someone wants and needs, they need to leave the GTA for one of the many cities that have more affordable places to live.

The bar has been set.
We’re not going back to the pricing that existed 20 years ago.

Not in this lifetime, anyway.

#117 Chico from Chibougamou on 02.07.19 at 11:54 am

#52 Vancouver in Rearview

:…and I am sorry, the answer is not to move to Vernon or Chibougamou…..”

Hey, hey. Let’s leave my belle town of Chibougamou out of this. Fresh air, clear skies a great pizza joint and the Saturday night dances are the rave! Houses that will knock your socks off for under 300k to boot!

#118 not 1st on 02.07.19 at 11:56 am

Stupid comment. Wait times are growing and scores of people cannot find a primary health care provider, from BC to NS. – Garth
——

Without injection of private funds the whole thing will collapse. People with bruised knees in emergency rooms.

Do you think the billions of dollars Trudeau gave away would have helped? He gave away enough money to build a new hospital in every province. Disgusting.

Health care is a provincial responsibility. – Garth

#119 KLNR on 02.07.19 at 12:01 pm

@#100 George on 02.07.19 at 8:45 am
To all the communists, socialists (yes, you need to be grouped together) and left-wing zealots out there;

Get out of the dark ages and see the light of the new populist movement emanating across Canada. There are enlightened right-wing leaders being elected in Canada that can brighten your existence if only you but open your eyes.
_____________________

oh boy, LOL.

#120 John Fredrick on 02.07.19 at 12:05 pm

Finally!

Very well said George.

Someone standing up to these socialists that have mislead our country for so long.

I especially like the “no ambition or ability” statement.

Well Done

#121 MF on 02.07.19 at 12:09 pm

100 George on 02.07.19 at 8:45 am

Lol who is this guy talking to?

Thanks for preaching to the choir about socialism.

MF

#122 For those about to flop... on 02.07.19 at 12:11 pm

Pink Snow falling in Vancouver.

People have asked me before why I do the CONFIRMED PINK SNOW posts, months after the sale, when it’s is all official according to b.c assessment and I can only point to to this cases like this as an example.

It has been in my ” Waiting for confirmation” folder since last July when it was recorded as a sale according to Zolo.

Look at the old listing, they still have sold as July 1st 2018

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/1749-w-62nd-avenue

Don’t recall the phantom sale price, and such is the tardiness of b.c assessment that I have a bunch of others from last year that I’m waiting to confirm, although this was probably the earliest.

You gotta follow them through from go to whoa.

Anyway it’s back on the market after the deal collapsed or whatever happened and they were hooped before and things haven’t gotten any better over that way.

The details…

1749 w 62nd ave,Vancouver

Paid 3.2 March 2017

Originally asking 3.39

Now asking 2.98

Assessment 2.8

These guys are gonna take a loss most likely and no it’s all about damage limitation.

Could be another 500k hit, after paying top dollar, one year after the detached peak that was kept hidden for as long as possible.

It’s out now…

M44BC

2017-10-20 : $3,398,000
2019-02-06 : $2,980,000

New listing.

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/1749-west-62nd-avenue

#123 MF on 02.07.19 at 12:14 pm

105 El Joko on 02.07.19 at 9:43 am

No.

People don’t have a problem with immigrants, they have a problem with: the RE cartel, insurance industries, the BoC, mortgage brokers, agents and everyone else who fed off our bubble and is trying desperately to keep it inflated.

You are not “people”.

MF

#124 MF on 02.07.19 at 12:16 pm

#106 BillyBob on 02.07.19

Finally something we sort of agree on, partially somewhat kind of.

I work in a place with a lot of Italian work permit holders. Italia is good but far from some utopia (that doesn’t exist).

MF

#125 EB on 02.07.19 at 12:38 pm

Now that Nanaimo actually rates comparably with places like LA and London for unaffordable housing, I really hope that sets some alarm bells ringing for people (as a Hub City alum I can say that without prejudice).

#126 JB on 02.07.19 at 12:51 pm

#102 RESPECT on 02.07.19 at 8:59 am

#80 Smoking Man on 02.07.19 at 12:50 am
About a month ago my wife says to me. You where right about selling our house. She came across GF with no idea that I grace the comment section every now and then.

She loves Garth, and Bandit. Has no idea who Dotathy is. Thinking they have a lot in common.

I ask her do you ever read the comments.

She said a few times, there are too many crazy people. So I don’t bother.

I asked her what about Smoking Man.

Her reply, total loser, I can’t believe he’s married.

People that’s what gambling is all about.

*******

I like her!
……………………………………………………………..
She is either dumb as a post or stoned out of her mind. She hasn’t caught on to what you do and say here and your epic drunken periscope feeds? Jesus I recall one where she was going to leave you and come home to Canada as she missed her family. For gods sake your name had a hyperlink for your desperate attempts to slog your birdcage liner here. I don’t know who to pity more you or that poor woman.

#127 Godth on 02.07.19 at 1:17 pm

#100 George

we’re having a real family crisis at the moment. my great-great-great grandfather started a very well known food company, it’s since grown into a multi-national corporation that was taken public in the early seventies. our family still holds a controlling share. as a result of this we’ve all grown up with all the trappings of success, private boarding schools, estates around the world, private jets and yachts, a foundation…etc. i’ve never had to work in my life, nor has anyone i’ve ever known, but one does need to keep busy and this socialist threat is ever present, i appreciate your concern.

the crisis comes in the form of my nephew, the boy is rudderless. i try to explain how the world works to him, and that he needs to take part somehow. he could start a p.r. firm, or a lobbying firm to influence public perception and government, particularly against these abhorrent taxes we must pay. he could start a tax haven in the caribbean, or elsewhere. he could start a company that targets government contracts, security or military for. ex. but he’ll have none of it.

he just wants to party with his entourage, all around the globe. we’ve recently found out he’s spending 50 thousand dollars a month fruitlessly. can you imagine how disturbing it is to board one of our foundation’s jets and find used condoms and needles between the alcantara seats? i won’t begin to describe the state of various yachts as a result of his stay, simply shocking. i suspect it’s just one long hedonistic orgy. simply appalling, he’s currently in detox for the third time in as many years. he’s crashed a lamborghini and a ferrari this year alone. the boy is lucky to be alive.

I’d appreciate any help you could offer on this most embarrassing matter.

#128 Tony on 02.07.19 at 1:25 pm

Canadian dollar to get shellacked tomorrow. My estimation is a one and one quarter cent loss for the Canadian dollar on the January jobs report tomorrow meaning a two cent drop in the last two days. Like I already stated the December and January jobs report out of America were completely bogus numbers and it looks like Canada is going to tell the truth tomorrow.

#129 Tony on 02.07.19 at 1:27 pm

Re: #127 Figure it Out on 02.07.19 at 1:05 pm

Wait ’til the Canadian jobs report comes out tomorrow… you’ll be changing your mind in a hurry.

#130 Hurricane Hazel on 02.07.19 at 1:47 pm

#88 Stan Brooks on 02.07.19 at 7:01 am
#84 Hurricane Hazel on 02.07.19 at 6:15 am

“European health care is far superior to ours. That ranking is not Dolce Vita’s ranking, it is an international health care ranking.
You are just too ignorant to acknowledge the reality.
8-12 hours waiting in North York General emergency could help you, just as s start.
You list 2 positive experiences, i can list 20 negative, once you get to 20 come back here and we will discuss in details.”

Let me address each of your statements Stan.

1. You cite international rankings on health care but when Canada gets an international ranking as the number 2 place in the world to live in 2018 you ignore it. Very objective Stan.
2.My mother in law had an emergency visit to a Mississauga hospital 2 weeks ago for acute heart problems. Dealt with upon arrival. Zero waiting. Zero.
3. 20 postive experiences? I have six decades of experience with Canadian health care including an immediate family member that was treated successfully for cancer. Immediately without delay, a 6 month treatment program. At Princess Margaret which, by the International Rankings you love, is 5th in the world . Americans who this immediate family member made contact with through social media and had the same type of cancer couldn’t wrap their minds around her treatments at a world class hospital with no out of pocket expenses.

Lastly, check out Ralph Nader’s latest on why the US should adopt a Canadian style health care system.

https://nader.org/2018/12/26/25-ways-the-canadian-health-care-system-is-better-than-obamacare/

#131 Blacksheep on 02.07.19 at 1:54 pm

George #100,

“The daily machinations of a province or a country is more than ideology or an economic model…it is a business. When Albertans elect a leader like Notley with no business or common sense and her goofy wide-eyed staring at Justin Trudeau then there is an inevitable descension into darkness.”

“Why do you all want to be so equal? Is it your lack of ability or your lack of ambition? Are the people that get rich off of socialism and environmentalism more equal?”

“Get out of the dark ages and see the light of the new populist movement emanating across Canada. There are enlightened right-wing leaders being elected in Canada that can brighten your existence if only you but open your eyes.”
———————————–
Very well said George…

#132 For those about to flop... on 02.07.19 at 1:55 pm

Recent sale report.

Nothing truly special about this one, I just put it in the folder last week as it was one of the more decent, newer, options down towards the bottom in Coquitlam.

The details…

3476 Wilkie Ave, Coquitlam.

Sold 990k February 2019

Asking 1.04

Assessment 1.03

So someone snapped it up in August 2015 for 690k a couple of years after it was built.

Shouldn’t have had to spend much money on it as it was fairly new then, and still looks to be in stellar condition six years later.

For those that haven’t noticed what I report on has evolved as the market evolved.

If there is nothing remarkable about this house then why report it?

One word.

Analytics.

I study what you guys look at and try to fill the demand.

People are attracted to cheaper housing.

Who knew…

M44BC

https://www.zolo.ca/coquitlam-real-estate/3476-wilkie-avenue

#133 PastThePeak on 02.07.19 at 1:59 pm

#128 Hurricane Hazel on 02.07.19 at 1:47 pm
#88 Stan Brooks on 02.07.19 at 7:01 am
#84 Hurricane Hazel on 02.07.19 at 6:15 am

Let me address each of your statements Stan.

1. You cite international rankings on health care but when Canada gets an international ranking as the number 2 place in the world to live in 2018 you ignore it. Very objective Stan.
2.My mother in law had an emergency visit to a Mississauga hospital 2 weeks ago for acute heart problems. Dealt with upon arrival. Zero waiting. Zero.
3. 20 postive experiences? I have six decades of experience with Canadian health care including an immediate family member that was treated successfully for cancer.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Well, #1 is not related to health care, so we can set that aside. Your other two points are two anecdotes of care that you have chosen to share. I will counter with my own “lived experience” then.

I have had 1 parent and 1 parent-in-law go through our system multiple times, and my anecdotes are (from Ottawa):
A) When the situation is urgent/critical (cardiac, cancer requiring fast treatment), the experience with Canadian medical system has been VERY good. Admitted right away, physicians/surgeons ready to go, well trained nurses, and everyone “cares”. Fast start to cancer treatments when time is of the essence.

If you are anywhere in a hospital, you want to be in the ICU/CCU.

B) If your situation does not relate to A), then the experience can be extremely slow, confusing, frustrating, and bureaucratic. The left hand doesn’t know what the right is doing. I have sat with parents waiting for treatment (e.g. fluid on heart, trouble breathing) for 4-5 hours. Get a smash on the head outside of clinic hours and need to go to hospital – up to 7-8 hours wait some times.

Lots of room for improvement. Pretending otherwise for partisan reasons solves nothing. A medical system is about health – not a defining characteristic of country’s identity or patriotism.

#134 Fred on 02.07.19 at 2:01 pm

Godth,

You sound like a very mixed up individual…..could it be that you are the cause of your nephews issues?

Maybe you should let his father and mother deal with his problems instead of being an overbearing family member?

#135 Duke on 02.07.19 at 2:01 pm

#122 For those about to flop… on 02.07.19 at 12:11 pm
Pink Snow falling in Vancouver.

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/1749-w-62nd-avenue

The details…

1749 w 62nd ave,Vancouver

Paid 3.2 March 2017

Originally asking 3.39

Now asking 2.98

Assessment 2.8

====================

My prediction is, this property will sell less than 2.2. That means the seller will lose more than 1.3mil. Awesome!!

#136 BC'er on 02.07.19 at 2:12 pm

My politics are to treat people as I wish to be treated. Try it. – Garth
……..
OK, Comrade Turner.

#137 Good Try on 02.07.19 at 2:18 pm

#96 russell – No broker in this market could ever have 500 deals on his desk because it would be impossible to move that much paper with all those clients. My best guess is the phones are not ringing too much anymore. A broker has agents running around, so did he retain an army of agents?

#138 crossbordershopper on 02.07.19 at 2:26 pm

just bough a business for 5K that nets 50K year with growth possibility.working 12 weeks a year.
sure its in nowhereville, but working 30 years for a $3000 month pension cheque wasnt in my cards, so one more tuck in and im spending even longer in boynton beach that i do now.
deals are off the beaten track, not in downtown toronto or surrounding area. you just got to keep looking and honestly most people dont look at these very out of the way places.

#139 NotLegalAdvice on 02.07.19 at 2:28 pm

#80 Smoking Man on 02.07.19 at 12:50 am

I asked her what about Smoking Man.

Her reply, total loser, I can’t believe he’s married.

People that’s what gambling is all about.

____________________

hahahahahaha. Garth once used my email on his post about how foolish I would be to buy a house with my income. my fiance (now wife) at the time told me by August it had to be done.

Wife read the blog post that day and instantly new it was about us – she was not happy about the comment section that day !

#140 Stan Brooks on 02.07.19 at 2:33 pm

#131 Hurricane Hazel on 02.07.19 at 1:47 pm

I have six decades of experience with Canadian health care

I hope you enjoy every aspect of it when you need it/that health care, exactly when you need it most.
6 decades, you basically live with your memories from the 60-es.

I am very serious when talking about health care as my wallet still hurts by having to go to US on multiple occasions and pay for services there which I could not get here in expedient manner.

How long was the waiting time for the heart condition in that Mississauga Hospital and what did they do to you mother (I guess no hearth surgery)? This is the first time I am hearing that acute heart condition can be treated by a single visit to an emergency room.

Did they give you a referral to a specialist and how many months/years down the road would that appointment be scheduled for?

Or she just had heartburn?

Zero waiting time?
Now that was funny.

I understand that you experience is unique, apparently you are a statistical anomaly.

Here is the reality for the rest:

https://torontosun.com/2017/02/16/canada-has-worst-erreferral-wait-times-in-11-developed-countries-report/wcm/2f7966f0-0daa-4589-aba7-68e54e0a056e

“In seven out of eight measures of timely access to care, Canada was significantly below the international average,” Christina Lawand, a senior researcher at CIHI, said from Ottawa.

“I think timely access to care has been a challenge for a while that we’ve noted from these surveys and from patient experience more generally in Canada,” she said.

“We’re not really seeing improvements over the last 10 years in timely access to care from a patient’s perspective, particularly when we look at timely access to family doctors or primary-care doctors or to specialists and for emergency department wait times.”

and some more on cost of living:


Child-care costs ‘astronomical’ in most of Canada, despite progress in some provinces

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/child-care-costs-apos-astronomical-050100703.html

==============================

#104 Tater on 02.07.19 at 9:23 am

No one could write you a Viagra script in Canada?

Never used it (I guess just have a better looking partner than you) or still somehow functional, but I was not aware that you actually need prescription in Canada to buy it while pot is free.

#141 Hurricane Hazel on 02.07.19 at 3:00 pm

Stan Brooks

“How long was the waiting time for the heart condition in that Mississauga Hospital and what did they do to you mother (I guess no hearth surgery)? This is the first time I am hearing that acute heart condition can be treated by a single visit to an emergency room.
Did they give you a referral to a specialist and how many months/years down the road would that appointment be scheduled for?Or she just had heartburn?”

Nice try cowboy. We are talking congestive heart failure you moron. 911 ambulance straight to electric shock treatment followed up with a week an a half stay and ongoing weekly treatment and blood tests at a heart clinic. Sorry you had to go south for treatments but I am reporting from current observations at two Mississauga hospitals. She is being treated for cancer at Credit View and once again, no waiting for treatments. Was in with her this week for a scheduled visit and they scheduled treatments for next week on their examinations from this week. 10 days of treatments starting next Tuesday.

#142 Hurricane Hazel on 02.07.19 at 3:06 pm

#134 Past The Peak

I agree there is room for improvement. Show me a perfect health care system in the world. Last I heard, people spends big bucks at the Mayo clinic and still die….

#143 Hurricane Hazel on 02.07.19 at 3:10 pm

Check out the complaints about the Mayo clinic, the number one rated hospital in the world….

https://www.consumeraffairs.com/health/mayo-clinic.html

#144 Stan Brooks on 02.07.19 at 3:38 pm

#143 Hurricane Hazel on 02.07.19 at 3:00 pm

Nice try cowboy. We are talking congestive heart failure you moron. 911 ambulance straight to electric shock treatment followed up with a week an a half stay and ongoing weekly treatment and blood tests at a heart clinic. Sorry you had to go south for treatments but I am reporting from current observations at two Mississauga hospitals. She is being treated for cancer at Credit View and once again, no waiting for treatments. Was in with her this week for a scheduled visit and they scheduled treatments for next week on their examinations from this week. 10 days of treatments starting next Tuesday.

===================

I did not call you names. Let’s follow some etiquette here, shell we?

As I said: Your experience is unique, enjoy it while it lasts.

I am surprised that you mother did not end up with a heart surgery, or at least some permanent device attached. What was the diagnoses?

The following:

Was in with her this week for a scheduled visit and they scheduled treatments for next week on their examinations from this week. 10 days of treatments starting next Tuesday.

Sounds extremely fishy by any standard.

Majority of cancer cases require surgery, then chemo and/or radiation but in 10 consecutive days…

You need extensive diagnostics, biopsy, decision of the oncology commission (usually done once a week even in top hospitals). You mentioned no surgery that gets me really interested in this case.

#145 Stan Brooks on 02.07.19 at 3:44 pm

#143 Hurricane Hazel on 02.07.19 at 3:00 pm

Biopsy, pathology report, tumor markers, DNA tests. Then MRI/CT scans, decision of the oncology commission, scheduling treatment in less than a week… with treatment starting the following week..
that was stretching it.

How they did it in that time frame without surgery is a mystery to me. Unless it is skin cancer your statement is totally unbelievable.

#146 Hurricane Hazel on 02.07.19 at 4:04 pm

Stan Brooks

She is an ongoing patient of the system with two hospitals in Mississauga. One is treating her for cancer, the other for congestive heart failure. Both world class. You are correct in all the prework, tests, diagnostics, etc. All this has been done and not in the time frame of one and half weeks but after her recent visit, they scheduled radiation treatments next week for 10 days pronto. They didn’t operate because of her advanced age and poor overall health. Otherwise surgery would have been done from the beginning.

#147 KLNR on 02.07.19 at 4:10 pm

#120 John Fredrick on 02.07.19 at 12:05 pm
Finally!

Very well said George.

Someone standing up to these socialists that have mislead our country for so long.

I especially like the “no ambition or ability” statement.

Well Done
__________________________

LOL, you guys are so bitter.
and delusional.
Better double up on your vitamin d.

#148 JB on 02.07.19 at 4:12 pm

More great deals Donald?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-02-06/inside-wisconsin-s-disastrous-4-5-billion-deal-with-foxconn

#149 Vancouver Loser on 02.07.19 at 4:28 pm

#52 Vancouver in the Rearview
Your sir, are 110% correct. As someone who lives here (and also works in healthcare), the current housing situation is absolutely bananas. I make a very decent wage, yet cannot afford a home without gutting my finances. It’s wrong, and it needs to stop.

#150 LP on 02.07.19 at 5:10 pm

#128 Godth on 02.07.19 at 1:17 pm

re your rudderless nephew:

I have a brother eleven years younger than me and one a year younger. The youngest one, childless his whole life, is a child-rearing “expert”. When my son and my nephew were teenagers, they raised some dust occasionally and, to be frank, were pains in the keester most of the teen years. Youngest brother would hear about it and turn up either at my house or the other brother’s house, pronounce that he’d come to straighten out the teen.

He’d order the kid, “Hey you, get in the truck!” They’d be gone an hour or so and when they arrived back, my brother would tell hubby and me, “He’ll behave now.” The boy would never reveal the conversation. Of course he never did behave, or at least, not until he was an adult.

Come to find out, they only went for ice cream!!!

You could solve your adult nephew’s behaviour with a family meeting (board meeting?) at which his use of the various toys you all own is forbidden. Get his keys to the yacht, the chalet or whatever and change all the locks. I don’t know the legalese for such a step but there’s sure to be one. Frankly, it’s hard to feel sorry for a family so obviously blessed with the material things of life. I just saved you a pile of money but surely you’ve got lawyers on retainer who will tell you the same thing.

#151 gfd on 02.07.19 at 5:10 pm

#96 russell on 02.07.19 at 8:33 am
Deal with mortgage brokers every day… yesterday broker tells me in 20 years he has never seen this many deals on his desk… he said 500… for a feb… 10% rise in prices he said in certain areas of the gta this year, while north gta goes flat… 150,000 people each year arriving in gta will keep prices rising… what to believe???
——————————————————-
Those are the Devil’s Rejects. . . very many.

#152 Gertrude on 02.07.19 at 5:14 pm

#149 KLNR on 02.07.19 at 4:10 pm
#120 John Fredrick on 02.07.19 at 12:05 pm
Finally!

Very well said George.

Someone standing up to these socialists that have mislead our country for so long.

I especially like the “no ambition or ability” statement.

Well Done
__________________________

LOL, you guys are so bitter.
and delusional.
Better double up on your vitamin d.
—————————————————————–

JF & George – don’t let socialists like KLNR bother you.

Its just another cross we have to bear and a load we have to carry to support lazy socialist people.

At least we can afford Vitamin D…lol.

G

#153 gfd on 02.07.19 at 5:18 pm

#140 crossbordershopper on 02.07.19 at 2:26 pm
just bough a business for 5K that nets 50K year with growth possibility.working 12 weeks a year.
sure its in nowhereville, but working 30 years for a $3000 month pension cheque wasnt in my cards, so one more tuck in and im spending even longer in boynton beach that i do now.
deals are off the beaten track, not in downtown toronto or surrounding area. you just got to keep looking and honestly most people dont look at these very out of the way places.
——————————————————-
Does that qualify for E-2 visa?

#154 Brian Ripley on 02.07.19 at 5:21 pm

Thanks for the note #68 Dan

I will be updating my Plunge-O-Meter page…
http://www.chpc.biz/plunge-o-meter.html

…after I get the rest of the January data …but the page is up with the December data and I offer 3 potential correction levels of prices, One of them may be close to the convergence where prices across Canada will settle before a new bull market in real estate is evident in the trend.

I had originally thought the March 2005 level was where prices would drop to, but after 10 years of ZIRP and NIRP and the unwillingness of governments to stop subsidizing their favourite market actors (Lenders, Consumers, Developers etal), I now think March 2009 looks like a better projection and the point at which Vancouver and Toronto prices left the planet.

But Vancouver and Toronto are so overbought by the FOMO crowd that they may never reach a March 2009 support especially if we go into a long term period of much lower rates of transactions. And if those overbought properties are not held by weak hands.

For instance see the January Toronto chart http://www.chpc.biz/toronto-housing.html

…notice that the total residential sales plot is in a much narrower and lower range since 1Q 2017.

The heat is off. Borrowing rates are already low. Only a massive wave of new wealthy immigrants, or current wealthy renters, if they exist, will support higher prices at this point … in my opinion. We could build an argument for a new wave of wealthy immigrants since we have already had that recently with the uncovering of the “Vancouver Model”:
http://www.chpc.biz/history-readings/dirty-real-estate

#155 acdel on 02.07.19 at 7:49 pm

#100 George

Best Post I have read to this day, clap,clap,clap!

#156 entropy on 02.08.19 at 10:45 am

“And people don’t obsess about their real estate on the streetcar or the subway.”

Yes they do!

#157 ERMD on 02.08.19 at 11:37 am

It’s great that you’re pumping the FIRE lifestyle but what about this lifestyle:

https://torontolife.com/real-estate/32-year-old-managed-accumulate-10-homes-toronto/