– Cassie Latta-Johnson, wetnoseimageshalifax.com
January property sales fell 23% in Victoria. In Calgary they were 16% lower, where the median house price toppled 5.6%. Word from Edmonton is dire. Montreal seems stable. In Halifax, where it’s yet to snow this winter, the average detached house has jumped 17% while DOM is down 15%.
Yes, all real estate is local. Next week we get the Big Stats from the GTA and YVR. Guessing is both had a crappy January, but Vancouver will be epically bad. Conditions there have grown more toxic in the past few weeks as the speculation tax was implemented (worse than expected), the wonky new mayor contemplates tripling the empty house tax and the Hauwei Affair heats up. Then of course, my poor old buddy and House of Commons seatmate John McCallum – widely respected in China where he was the Canadian ambassador – had his head put on a stick by the prime minister. Van has always been the most Asian of our cities, and these days we seem to be doing all we can to irritate the Chinese.
But what of Toronto?
Assignment sales have exploded recently. Like this one:
Wellesley on the Park
Wellesley/Bay/Yonge
2+1 Bed, 2 Bath
1 Parking, 1 Locker
878 sft + big Balcony
Southwest Facing, over 20th Floor
Summer 2019 Occupancy
Asking $1,180,000
____________________________________________
Scads of recent buyers are bailing out of their pre-con units as conditions grow tighter, new inventory floods the market and the moister-killing mortgage stress test continues to take its toll. The latest news from The Six is actually pretty grim – even in advance of the real estate board numbers due out next week.
Sales of new homes have essentially collapsed to levels not seen for two decades as the number of unsold condos courses higher. Research firm Urbanation, always a pumper of the industry, now says buyers should be showing “greater caution” as the market slows dramatically. It’s a combination of foreign investors giving up on Canada and local buyers gagging at persistently-stupid prices while taxes increase, interest rates remain at elevated levels and mortgage regs eliminate potential first-timers. It’s a mess.
The local building industry on Friday reported the lowest number of new home sales since they started keeping records. Hardest hit were single-family houses, dropping 50% from year-ago levels, to almost 75% below the 10-year average. Detached prices are down 7%, but condos are up 11% – the result of the stress test forcing more activity to the lowest end of the price spectrum. As this pathetic blog has often shown, all governments seem to have done is make cheap houses less affordable while slaughtering the value of expensive ones that 99% of people will never live in. Great work, guys.
As for condos, almost 22,000 new ones will be coming on-stream in 2019, fully half of them bought by investors – many of whom are trying to bail out via assignment clauses in their purchase agreements. Price gains for these units have dropped like a stone while the number of unsold condos has swollen. So it isn’t just the pesky Polar Vortex which has caused a bad case of cold feet in Toronto.
Meanwhile the building industry has joined the realtors (and Jason Kenney) in pleading with the T2 government to gut the stress test and bring back CMHC-insured 30-year amortizations. The odds of this happening have escalated dramatically since Bill Morneau stood in Toronto some days ago and said his government is planning on helping Millennials buy homes.
Well to summarize: after going ballistic in 2017, inflating wildly in classic bubble, FOMO frenzy, residential real estate is wobbling in most places. Like most deflations, this one is messy, uneven, painful, scary, confusing and essential to market health. Without a meaningful correction now, housing will drift out of the reach of the average family – leading to an inevitable crash later. Some politicians (like those in BC) are turning into giant bubble-pricks, while others appear ready to rollover and capitulate to the realtor-industrial complex.
We’ll know more when the sap runs.
Meanwhile, as always, if you really need a house and can afford one, buy. But the rest of you, stay bemused.
101 comments ↓
Without a meaningful correction now, housing will drift out of the reach of the average family
This implies housing is within reach of the average family today. Living in Vancouver, the average house sure as hell isn’t the case, to say nothing of being within the reach of an above average income family!
Garth, according to you, foreign money had little to no effect on housing prices in Vancouver. If so, what difference should it make if we’re having a fight with Huawei that irritates the Chinese government? How is that possibly relevant?
Every little cut bleeds. – Garth
I’m in Awe of How Fast the Housing Markets in Sydney & Melbourne Are Coming Unglued
https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/im-in-awe-of-how-fast-the-housing-markets-in-sydney-melbourne-are-coming-unglued/
house! justice! fairness!
First!
Why doesn’t the corrupt Trudeau administration allow banks to sell inter-generational mortgages. That way, Canadians can not only commit themselves to a lifetime of debt servitude, but also their newborn children.
There is no doubt Canadians are stupid enough to sign.
In other news, there is cause for celebration tonight! Billionaire Ron Joyce no longer has to pay his temporary foreign workers an extravagant minimum wage.
Who in their right mind would pay over $1 million for a tiny house condo? This must be someone’s idea of a joke.
Recent sale report.
Well, I touched on the potential carnage that is going to happen on Mathers Avenue and these guys just sold and took a minor hit compared to their neighbors, mainly because they could being in a lower price bracket than most.
The details…
2384 Mathers Ave,West Vancouver.
Paid 2.31 April 2015
Sold 2.31 April 2019
Originally asking 2.84
Assessment 2.72 down from3.36
So I guess the most striking thing about this result what that they bought approximately one year before the final detached blowoff and still took a hit.
Although they only had to foot the expenses, which we will say 115k, with ones like this you also have to look at opportunities lost due to the close to four year hold.
Dunno, the number could be closer to 300k even if we are being conservative and as always my work is only a rough guide, so let’s go with a 250k punch to the pecans…
M44BC
https://www.zolo.ca/west-vancouver-real-estate/2384-mathers-avenue
“Huawei Affair heats up & It’s a combination of foreign investors giving up on Canada”
———————————
What does it got to do with your real estate since is local? Only 5% are foreign investors right?
I’m confused Garth!
Realtors told people foreign money gassed houses. So when they hear it’s gone, buying stops. You confuse easily. – Garth
Garth,
Year of the Pig coming.
Time for some pig pictures.
Snork
Stephen S. Poloz just issued a statement:
After watching Canadians have one massive house wrecker of a party for more than a decade I’m taking away the punchbowl. The millenials are all high on pot and their parents are pickled on scotch, or worse, therefore it falls on my shoulders to be the responsible adult. I’m going to steer into the slide and aim for the ditch, rather than the cliff. Effective immediately I’m raising the prime rate to 5%, expecting another raise in three months.
Sincerely
A big Meanie
With a price tag of $1,180,000, you can imagine the monthly maintenance fee on that thing.
That’s the one thing YVR got right, their condo maintenance fees are not as ridiculous as Toronto.
170k to put down on a 850k house. Essentially no savings after I do this.
Can I afford the house ?! 3400 mortgage payments and I take home 8000.
My Yield Curve chart is up with January data.
The 10yr less 2yr rate was 7 beeps away from inversion last month and this month (January) it has ticked up 3bps to 10 beeps away from inversion.
The TSX Real Estate Index Momentum (Y/Y change) plot on the chart moved up but is still in a long term downtrend since the post-2009-crash-high.
Central Bank hanky panky might keep yield inversion from happening but at what cost.
Mattamy Homes here in Oakville is advertising their new homes like crazy! YouTube, msm…everywhere. Business must not be great for them.
I’ve never seen an advertising campaign like this before.
Watch Trudeau’s knees start shaking as the election polls start arriving soon….
RE: #1 Vancouver in the Rearview on 02.01.19 at 5:48 pm
Garth, according to you, foreign money had little to no effect on housing prices in Vancouver. If so, what difference should it make if we’re having a fight with Huawei that irritates the Chinese government?
==================================
Since realtors created the narrative of, “Buy now before the Chinese get it!”; it stands to reason that the GreaterFools will now lose confidence if they think that the foreign money is about to flee.
Garth writes:
As this pathetic blog has often shown, all governments seem to have done is make cheap houses less affordable while slaughtering the value of expensive ones that 99% of people will never live in. Great work, guys.
With no offense intended, what was your solution?
VanTor vortex forming …
And in one of Ottawa’s most popular and fastest growing tract suburbs, resale homes sell in days at asking and Mattamy and minto will likely sell out their next faze in no time. and this is the second straight year of historic house price and liquidity in Ottawa. so it really is a local market. GTA and Van and others grew so fast and so high, they could only collapse. Whereas, this place has just marched along at healthy but not stupid rates of growth. Why do we keep comparing today to yesterday in GTA and VAn when yesterday was simply stupid.
Just read an article about the huge glut of new condos coming online in Toronto in 2019
The worm has turned
Going to be interesting to see what happens when low tide shows how precarious the market is and how over extended speculators and investors are
Need 25 to 30 year locked in mortgages, like in the U.S.A.
I may as well say one more time that the obvious answer to the stress test is to make it redundant by offering 25 to 30 year mortgages with fixed rates that are open for repayment with no penalty after no more than 5 years. In the U.S.A. 30 year fixed rate mortgages are essentially open from the git go upon payment of a small fee to my understanding.
There are institutional investors that would be willing to fund/invest in said mortgages. Banks can’t fund these with short-term deposits due to the interest rate risk so they need to be CMHC insured and securitised.
For reasons unknown (it’s not the Bank Act) CMHC and the banks have apparently never attempted this though it seems they have gone out to 10 years with good interest rates at times. Which was a good start.
There should be no stress test on a 10 or 15 year mortgage since renewal is so far away. And none needed by definition if locked in for full 25 or 30 years.
Canada: When you finally adopt my idea which I have called for for probably eight years on this blog, I will accept a “finders fee”.
So how is it ta
Short sell (kaputs) the very-extended Weed stocks here.
“I’m sticking with my long-held (and so far accurate) prediction that a 10-15% plop in prices in major markets would be followed by a years-long slow price melt. ”
2018 –> 2017 Avg. Toronto Price Drop about -5%. Half to a third of the way there.
If they’re running for the turnstiles already, as you write about today, your price drop estimate is about to be blown out of the water and sunk to the murky depths of Lake Ontario where it belongs.
——————————————-
Old article (November 21, 2018) I held back on about the shenanigan’s, losses and gains of well healed RE investors in Toronto’s Four Seasons Private Residences. Today seems like the thematic day to share with Blog Dogs.
Articles ends with Realosophy’s Pasalis quote:
“It’s still a bit of a Wild West that’s not policed”
Understatement of that year.
Exceptional read for those unaware. Article gives hope that there is some Cdn. MSM journalism out there that is alive and well:
http://projects.thestar.com/four-seasons-condos/
“We’ll know more when the sap runs.”
Not till October????
“moister-killing mortgage stress test continues to take its tool.”
I’m assuming you meant to write “toll” my good chap, but were distracted by all the tools you must write about on a daily basis.
In Windsor, Ont, where the prosperous light of Trump’s America shines bright, real estate values are holding up quite well.
There will be no broad scale changes in the GTA markets so as long as people have the incomes to carry the debt.
There have been no major job losses here, except for Oshawa.
Greetings Garth! first post – it’s long so I’ll skip the requisite genuflection…lol I’d appreciate your thoughts on this post: Ron Fichtemann
January 29 at 11:08 PM
OLD AGE PENSION QUIETLY CHANGED TO FEDERAL PAYMENT BENEFIT
The Old Age Pension cheque is now (or soon will be) referred to as a “Federal Benefit Payment?” I’ll be part of the one percent to forward this. I am forwarding it because it touches a nerve in me, and I hope it will in you. Please keep passing it on until everyone in our country has read it.
The government is now referring to our Old Age Pension cheques as a “Federal Benefit Payment.” This isn’t a benefit.
It is our money paid out of our earned income! Not only did we all contribute to our pension but our employers did too.
It totaled 15% of our income before taxes.
If you averaged $30K per year over your working life, that’s close to $180,000 invested in pension.
If you calculate the future value of your monthly investment in a pension ($375/month, including both you and your employers contributions) at a meager 1% interest rate compounded monthly, after 40 years of working you’d have more than $1.3+ million dollars saved!
This is your personal investment. Upon retirement, if you took out only 3% per year, you’d receive $39,318 per year, or $3,277 per month.
That’s almost three times more than today’s average Old Age Pension benefit of $1,230 per month.
(WHO MAKES $1,230 MONTH??) NOT MY PENSION!!
And your retirement fund would last more than 33 years (until you’re 98 if you retire at age 65)! I can only imagine how much better most average-income people could live in retirement if our government had just invested our money in low-risk interest-earning accounts.
Instead, the folks in Ottawa pulled off a bigger “Ponzi scheme” than Bernie Madoff ever did. They took our money and used it elsewhere. They forgot (oh yes, they knew) that it was OUR money they were taking. They didn’t have a referendum to ask us if we wanted to lend the money to them. And they didn’t pay interest on the debt they assumed. And recently they’ve told us that the money won’t support us for very much longer.
But is it our fault they misused our investments? And now, to add insult to injury, they’re calling it a “benefit”, as if we never worked to earn every penny of it.
Just because they borrowed the money doesn’t mean that our investments were a charity!
Let’s take a stand . We have earned our right to our pensions. Demand that our MP’s bring some sense into our government.
Find a way to keep Old Age Pension going for the sake of that 92% of our population who need it.
Then call it what it is: Our Earned Retirement Income.
99% of people won’t SHARE this. Will you?
And no, I didn’t share because I think he is confused…? Thanks
You have copied and pasted fake news commentary on a US (not Canadian) program. Don’t bother posting again. – Garth
“As this pathetic blog has often shown, all governments seem to have done is make cheap houses less affordable while slaughtering the value of expensive ones that 99% of people will never live in. Great work, guys.”- GT
—————-
It’s all so obvious Garth!
Governments have an agenda: they want ALL of us to be in the 1%! Then we could all live in big luxurious homes that we can afford.
Isn’t this what K. Marx promised??
TCC
Lots of houses in the Calgary suburbs coming up for sale over the last few weeks. Amazing people are still listing them at 2014 peak prices, and refuse to budge. Just like last year they will likely just sit with no offers and the owners will either try to rent them or just stay put. This can only go on for so long, the pain is only just starting. I’m just hoping that I can stay employed and dont need to sell for another decade.
A Canadian TV show used a term I quite like that (relevant to this blogs canine theme) describes the politicians willingness to capitulate and not hold course on their current (correct) policy: “soft as puppy $hit”
” Van has always been the most Asian of our cities, and these days we seem to be doing all we can to irritate the Chinese.”
=====================================
One of many reasons that the T2 party will lose it’s status on October 21, 2019.
I wonder how many Chinese will vote this clown.
See no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil.
Nov. 2018 GDP -0.1%, second loss in the last 3 months of reporting. Barely a whimper about it from the Cdn. MSM or even in here.
When no one want’s talk about it is when you know things are not well in Dodge.
Those 3 Japanese macaques at the Tōshō-gū shrine in Nikkō have the psychology down pat.
Buonanotte.
… my poor old buddy and House of Commons seatmate John McCallum – widely respected in China where he was the Canadian ambassador – had his head put on a stick by the prime minister.
_________________________
Yes indeed. But, … but it was an act, … a democratic move, by a most democratic prime minister, … from a democratic country!
By democratic, I mean a country that is the one that religiously follows U.S. leadership and opens its economy to U.S. investment ‘n such, …
Best,
F.S. – Calgary, Alberta.
I rent and want to buy one day. To me affordability is average price to average income, not how easy it is to take a mortgage. Condos in GTA seem to be ready to begin descent, if so all other types will follow and it will be easier for Millennials to buy. No stress test or 30 years amortization from Liberals and I will vote for any other party.
Race to a million.
Gonna keep an eye on this one just because it is Vancouver Special just to see how low it goes for.
I have seen a couple go below 1 million but most fetch way more especially if maintained well and not on a busy street like Main.
One recently went on Rupert street for 975k.
The details…
5945 Main Street, Vancouver.
Asking 990k
Assessment 1.39
So this is a house I have physically walked by a tonne of times, although not recently, as I lived just near Main and 41st when I first arrived in Vancouver.
Quite the distance between asking and assessment,so we’ll see what happens.
Mind the gap…
M44BC
https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/5945-main-street
RE: Wellesley on the Park condo: That is a very odd design. The only room that makes sense is the den. The rest of it, wow, just wow.
Bathroom directly off the front door, with bathtub and shower for I am assuming the occupant of the second bedroom, whose bedroom door is directly across from the kitchen (always the busiest, loudest and smelliest room in the house). The occupant of that bedroom also will hear the front door open and close and hear everyone coming and going.
Master off the living/dining room, again, makes no sense. Why not have the entrance to the master from the den? They are connected by a wall. Would be much quieter.
The only room that makes sense is the den. What a weird way to lay out a condo.
3 beds, 2 baths in less than 900sq ft? yikes… seems tight.
why someone would spend $1.1mm on yet-to-be-built when ready-to-go can be purchased now is beyond me
We should debate the impact of climate change and gender neutrality on house prices.
I bet JT jumps on this hot topic shortly.
Can’t blame China. He fired that bullet already.
#38 – great name, very fitting
learn from history, or you’ll repeat it.
your talking points are identical to those from before the 90s crash… immigration/migration definitely happens, but demand doesn’t necessarily come along with it.
Pink Snow falling in North Vancouver.
Yet another one that was off the market and has come back on for the early Spring 2019 wave.
The numbers don’t look particularly positive for these guys.
The details…
4456 Ranger Ave,North Vancouver.
Paid 3.23 January 2018
Asking 2.98
Assessment 3.45
So they have got one of the top brokers over that way on the books.
We’ll see what magic they can weave.
Anything over 3 million is a tough sell for most of the city at the moment.
These guys could lose close to 500k after expenses if they get ground down.
This is why your parents told you to stay away from random Rangers…
M44BC
https://www.zolo.ca/north-vancouver-real-estate/4456-ranger-avenue
https://www.rew.ca/insights/25079/4456-ranger-avenue-north-vancouver-bc
#33 Dolce Vita on 02.01.19 at 7:18 pm
“See no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil.
Nov. 2018 GDP -0.1%, second loss in the last 3 months of reporting. Barely a whimper about it from the Cdn. MSM or even in here.
When no one want’s talk about it is when you know things are not well in Dodge.”
…..
Financial Post:
https://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/energy-slump-drives-canadas-second-gdp-decline-in-three-months
CBC:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canada-economy-gdp-1.5000096
Reuters:
https://ca.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idCAKCN1PP1T6-OCABS
….
-I know it doesn’t suit your narrative, but it was well reported and all over every MSM site there is.
MF
The RE world according to Garth. Foreign buyers that purchase Canadian RE do not have an impact on escalating house prices, but they do have an impact on declining RE values when they are disincentivized from buying RE. I don’t get it.
Because you don’t pay attention. Foreign buyers are in every major market but only in YVR did the industry manage to convince the locals it was an invasion. Now they are whiplashed. It’s a head fake realtors created. – Garth
————————-
sorry, but this is complete utter gibberish. I would suggest that you re-read Andy Yan’s comprehensive reports based on the detailed information he collected (despite all the hinderances at trying to collect good data).
https://www.macleans.ca/economy/realestateeconomy/andy-yan-the-analyst-who-exposed-vancouvers-real-estate-disaster/
His reports have linked many times on this blog. I guess one can choose to simply and willfully ignore it.
Real estate is now coming down in YVR at all price points, the condos being last to decline since the heights of last spring. The statement that lower end places have spiked, while at the higher end nobody can afford anyway, is also misleading. Condo prices were rocketing upwards even 3 years ago before the NDP came
We are on the way down, and given a few more years of this, YVR might be a more affordable city at all price points so that young people (without trust funds and huge inheritances) can actually make a decent life here….
MF
…from previous post and your comment #187.
Are you really that clueless and brainwashed ?
Refute what I posted, not what you allege I didn’t.
Churchill and FDR were in Canada during WW2…and Churchill was asked if he would offer peace terms to Germany..and he stated no…they may ACCEPT it.
More Japanese and Germans died AFTER the war than during….GOOGLE Eisenhower death camps and Canadian author James Bacque “Other Losses”etc.
Why would USA and Britain ally themselves to brutal Bolshevik commies like Stalin that had murdered 60+ million ? Figured it out yet?
If you don’t understand the connection to the world’s current mess is directly related to outcomes of WW1 and WW2 and 99% of the world is losing…you are a lost cause.
Ace Goodheart: talking about a snowy day in Toronto: While this is happening, over and over again, traffic is backed up down the street. No one can get past the latest SUV to park out front of one of the two schools.
So they honk. And they get out of their cars and swear at each other. This morning two dads almost engaged in fisticuffs. A woman threw her purse at a mom returning to her idling mini van
pretty funny
When I went to public school ( Melody Road ), the bell would ring, the kids would get out and walk home. No parents. No cars.
In Ottawa, piles of snow in the winter, are the norm. No parking when it’s snowing. Or they’ll tow you. Right now on my street, the piles are six feet high on either side of the road. Wider than high.
talking about Toronto: The local building industry on Friday reported the lowest number of new home sales since they started keeping records. Hardest hit were single-family houses, dropping 50% from year-ago levels, to almost 75% below the 10-year average.
wait until spring. In a normal housing market, May sales are double January sales. More than double. People are going to notice when May sales are down 50%.
Meanwhile the building industry has joined the realtors in pleading with the T2 government to gut the stress test and bring back CMHC-insured 30-year amortizations.
there’s no way to spin this one. The fundamentals do not support looser lending. Bill Morneau knows this. The banks know this. They do sql queries against their data bases. In core. Besides Justin Trudeau doesn’t have that much time. The election’s in October. I mean a guy in Woodbridge trying to sell his house, finds out there’s no buyers. He’s not going to be happy. What does he care Trudeau’s made a couple of speeches? His house is still not sold.
I don’t understand the appeal of condo living for that much money…the alternatives are so much better.
#49 My big sister told me on 02.01.19 at 8:00 pm
I don’t understand the appeal of condo living for that much money…the alternatives are so much better.
—————————————————————-
Exactly. Why would you want to tie up that kind of cash to purchase air space when you can rent it much cheaper and be free to come and go as you please? Furthermore, you can have the cash invested which will more than cover the rental cost. Such a no brainer.
Over a million for under 900sf…’2+den..’ you probably couldn’t fit an Ikea chair in that den…just when I thought bc was home to the dumbest people in Canukistan..well done TO the honours are now yours.
At least you can still over 2000sf for 500-600k in gods country
Yippee kayyay mofo’s
“Word from Edmonton is dire.” does Shawn Allen agree?
“But the rest of you, stay bemused.”
Rest assured we are sidelined AND amused.
#46 Lost…but not leased on 02.01.19 at 7:57 pm
“Are you really that clueless and brainwashed ?
Refute what I posted, not what you allege I didn’t.”
-I did. Read my post again.
You said: “bankers” are responsible for everything bad that occurred in the 20th century. Germany’s rise in the 1930’s was due to it not being on the gold standard and embracing “nationalism”.
I said: you ignored the violent nature of Nazism, which was, in addition to threatening British hegemony, a main reason why Germany’s rise was so opposed by the other western governments. I said opposition to German nationalism was not solely to blame, and that the Nazi party was responsible for the deaths and suffering of millions of Germans who went to war for the ideology of a mad man.
That was my point.
I actually agreed with parts of what you wrote. Namely that the killing of millions of people in the wars of the 20th century at the hands of political extremists was disgusting.
The part about communist infiltration sounds a little far fetched since the US became the world’s largest superpower in the years post ww2. If they were infiltrating and trying to undermine, they did a poor job.
“If you don’t understand the connection to the world’s current mess is directly related to outcomes of WW1 and WW2 and 99% of the world is losing…you are a lost cause.”
-The world is not in any “mess”. Imperfect as always but far better than at any other time in history. In all the wars since ww2, the amount of death and suffering is far less than any other time in history. My final point was that the legacy of WW2 is that extremism of all forms should be resisted.
MF
November GDP decline 0.1% ??
#33 Dolce Vita on 02.01.19 at 7:18 pm
See no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil.
Nov. 2018 GDP -0.1%, second loss in the last 3 months of reporting. Barely a whimper about it from the Cdn. MSM or even in here.
*********************************
Really, the business news that normally reports on GDP did not?
That 0.1% decline was in relation to October. It was actually a year over year gain of 1.7%. Those numbers are always in real terms after deducting official inflation rate.
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/190131/t001a-eng.htm
But it does show a picture of weakness in the last half of the year certainly. Good thing the first half of 2018 was decent.
Went out to look at a few places in BBY. Middle of the road places 1.8M to 2M. You know, the ones you can’t buy if you don’t have a serious wad of cash to put down.
Completely dead, no showings, 200K price reductions on those serious to sell, but still no action.
I will say though, on two occassions, when other buyers would cross paths with us, they were of asian descent. Canadian-Asians, yes possibly. But when the average local can’t afford the average house, because they have no external help, then the money must come from somewhere. So here is where it came from:
1. Low interest rates
2. Mom and Dad HELOC on their place from the 60’s and 70’s
3. SFH being torn down for Multi family, reducing the SFH supply and goosing property values and further supported by developers because of sky high values for the Multi product.
4. Foreign Money – I am going to say it – Asia.
5. The fear of loosing out
6. Buying because it went up yesterday.
They definitely have a considerable enough mass of money to move the YVR market; Garth and I will never agree on this one.
https://globalnews.ca/news/4658157/fentanyl-vancouver-real-estate-billion-money-laundering-police-study/
And for the same opposite reasons above, it will delfate.
Realtors told people foreign money gassed houses. So when they hear it’s gone, buying stops. You confuse easily. – Garth
……..
Oh, Garth, it wasn’t just the realtors!
Sydney 6 months ahead of Vancouver, which is 6 months ahead of Toronto. A Dickens Crashmas Carol.
Tick tock
Landlord came by last weekend for the first time in 2.5 years. He was sweating bullets hoping that we never leave. We are renting a huge house with a yard, pool and park behind our house. As long as the balance sheet stays black YOY, we won’t leave. Unless he begs us to buy 100K from now. Then———>maybe
#194 Good To Go on 02.01.19 at 4:12 pm
#188 not 1st – Sounds like a good excuse to take over our country, and the second one to look out for is their need for our water supply.
——
I for one welcome our American overlords. Canada would be whipped into shape pretty fast. We must look like fools to the outside world. A place with trillions upon trillion of wealth has a massive public and private debt and more worried about which washroom to use than selling our resources.
We are weak and dishonest just like Trump called T2.
Edmonton?
#52 Lillooet, BC on 02.01.19 at 8:58 pm
“Word from Edmonton is dire.” does Shawn Allen agree?
I don’t follow the sales level of existing homes in Edmonton. I do follow new home sales and those have been down and are reported on a more lagged basis.
Here is a great graph provided by the provincial government on new home starts. You can see back to 1950. Definitely a good deal lower now that the peak years It’s a volatile picture.
https://economicdashboard.alberta.ca/HousingStarts
I believe Edmonton home building is not down as badly as much of the Province. Near me, in an Edmonton suburb, a surprising number of multi-family units are under construction. Three large buildings started about a year ago. What were they thinking? Oh well, real estate is local and all that. (It’s different here?).
Interprovincial migration back into Alberta is also picking up, though remains below the peak years.
https://economicdashboard.alberta.ca/NetMigration
It seems we can always rely on Atlantic Canada to send their young this way! Those provinces pay to educate them and then they come here for work.
Just wait for the January numbers out of Edmonton…they’re going to be mind-blowingmy bad. Prices off a cliff.
Which brings me to a tired but worthwhile point: Young people, get the hell outta Vancouver and Toronto. For $300k, you can own a decent detached house in the burbs or an older place more central, put a renter in the basement, and basically live for free or close. Even better, just rent in Edmonton- so many empty houses and apartments you can rent for below ownership cost and have no risk, and no headaches. Short commute, decent job market despite what the news says. And our hockey time is atrocious so you won’t be tempted to spend tour disposable income on idle luxuries like NHL tickets. Canada is more than two cities.
MF on 02.01.19 at 9:11 pm
#46 Lost…but not leased on 02.01.19 at 7:57 pm
“Are you really that clueless and brainwashed ?
Refute what I posted, not what you allege I didn’t.”
-I did. Read my post again.
You said: “bankers” are responsible for everything bad that occurred in the 20th century. Germany’s rise in the 1930’s was due to it not being on the gold standard and embracing “nationalism”.
I said: you ignored the violent nature of Nazism, which was, in addition to threatening British hegemony, a main reason why Germany’s rise was so opposed by the other western governments. I said opposition to German nationalism was not solely to blame, and that the Nazi party was responsible for the deaths and suffering of millions of Germans who went to war for the ideology of a mad man.
That was my point.
I actually agreed with parts of what you wrote. Namely that the killing of millions of people in the wars of the 20th century at the hands of political extremists was disgusting.
The part about communist infiltration sounds a little far fetched since the US became the world’s largest superpower in the years post ww2. If they were infiltrating and trying to undermine, they did a poor job.
“If you don’t understand the connection to the world’s current mess is directly related to outcomes of WW1 and WW2 and 99% of the world is losing…you are a lost cause.”
-The world is not in any “mess”. Imperfect as always but far better than at any other time in history. In all the wars since ww2, the amount of death and suffering is far less than any other time in history. My final point was that the legacy of WW2 is that extremism of all forms should be resisted.
MF
+++++++++
Who “banked” Hitler? He was not using the Nazi Bank of Germany.
The mess in major developed markets (real estate), and rapid loss of purchasing power for consumers will only accelerate in the coming years. There are several reasons for it: selling overpriced brick and mortar with high maintenance fees and property taxes to each other with hopes of creating some kind of economic activity is just one of them. Other reasons are: escalating inflation on food items, utilities, insurance, etc. Climate change is worsening economic output (look at Chicago and Adelaide this past week), and increasing the cost of agriculture. All the main manufacturing is gone to Asia, cheap labor was brought here, automation will pick up whatever crumbs are left on the table. Civil unrest and war will eventually erupt as humans need to survive and groups of tribes get together to wipe another tribe out for survival needs. Don’t get too much into the ideologies: Nazis vs commies, whites vs reds, Catholics vs Orthodox, Shia vs Sunni. Its all about power, survival, and ensuring that one tribe’s actions are justified against the other. This will also come sooner rather than later. Planet Earth is getting too crowded, and its resources are limited.
MF..
My spouses’ great uncle was a teenage prairie boy who enlisted into the Canadian military during WW1.
He wrote letters home that, taken in a chronological context, morphed from (a)conviction to (b)WTF am I doing here ???
He sent a number of letters to his sister…and through serendipity were recovered via a demolition contractor who contacted the Vancouver Sun, who…. in the early 1990’s , tracked down my mother-in law and printed a full page story for Remembrance Day.
NOTE: Refer back to Garth’s Remembrance day topic 2017…..I fully outlined the matter.
The letters were ultimately donated to a Canadian University and are a major part of their research department…given the subject parties front line experiences.
My spouse and her mother’s bucket list was to visit his grave in Europe…and through absolute sheer luck found it…
He was “honoured” for his sacrifice and service by sharing a grave with (2) others….His sister , my spouses’ grandmother, was a real sweetie..but what she must have suffered seeing her brother die YET submitting” WTF- am -I -doing- here “correspondence?
ALL WARS ARE BANKERS WARS..If you can’t see the noose whose diameter is slowly but surely contracting….OMG.
T2 could easily draft a PRO CANADA policy, which could alleviate 99.9% of our socio- economic woes..but his DNA …….combined with ego and survival instinct won’t allow it.
Use yer brain dude…..
BOC sighting hight levels debt and are re thinking rasing rates. Wonder is politics are in play in an election year.
Doesn’t matter, the inflation effects coming from the climate tax will push people over the edge. It’s not good.
Greater Vancouver Detached Average sales price drops 7% Y/Y. Median sales price fell 9.6%.
Greater Vancouver Condo average sales price drops 10% Y/Y. Median sales price fell 7%.
Greater Vancouver Condo sales fall 45% Y/Y in January. Fewest sales for the moth since January 2009.
Greater Vancouver detached home sales also fell to a decade low, slipping 27% Year-over-Year.
Garth is absolutely correct; the myth of “The Chinese” and other foreign buyers was perpetuated here in Vancouver by the RE industry to inspire FOMO-buying among locals.
Just like the endless army of ants in the novel, “Leiningan Versus the Ants”, many locals were led to perceive FB’s as an unstoppable force intent on gobbling up every sq. centimetre of RE they could sink their teeth into.
I have said this over and over again on my “Metro Vancouver Housing Collapse” Facebook forum; feel free to join along with the thousands of other who already have.
14 Canadian Patriot on 02.01.19 at 6:27 pm
Watch Trudeau’s knees start shaking as the election polls start arriving soon….
…..
I have news for you. Trudeau is going to win again. Unlike people who read this blog and are aware of current events, most Canadians are ignorant of the news, and will vote for him again. He has great Photo ops and people will vote for the pretty boy.
Recent sale report.
I’ve been alluding to all the carnage on The North Shore and these guys just took a whack in The Vancouver Real Estate Stupid Bowl.
The details…
875 Greenwood Rd ,West Vancouver.
Paid 3.3 December 2015
Sold 2.88 January 2019
Originally asking 3.98
Assessment 3.02 down from 3.89
So although they bought late in 2015, it’s another one that took a loss before the final detached blowoff.
Quite substantial, 18% or roughly a 600k punch to the Patriots.
Maybe they got Rammed…
M44BC
https://www.zolo.ca/west-vancouver-real-estate/875-greenwood-road
https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDAyOUJIRA==
“…giant bubble-pricks.”
One of your best, Mr. T.
#32 NOSTRADAMUS on 01.30.19 at 7:00 pm
CASTAWAYS !
Imagine, a whole lot of Real Estate speculators along with other indebted lost souls, all marooned castaways on the Island of 2017 assumptions. All unaware that times have changed. No one is responding to their S.O.S.’s in the sand. The traditional lending institutions have sailed on by. I suspect a great number of these lost souls are now praying to Lucifer, as their prayers to a higher entity have gone unanswered. In the land of universal deceit, telling the truth can be a revolutionary act. You can trust me as the teller of truth in the land of gypsies, tramps and thieves.
==================================
I wish your comment about universal deceit was not so ingenuous.
I fear as I become older, I have developed the ability to cut through much of the deceit that I encounter.
Sadly, it causes me to be somewhat of a pariah to be around. Especially if I decide to reveal truthful reasoning while others prefer to remain blissfully ignorant.
So often do I encounter persons with such monumental ignorance that it baffles me as to how these people benefit society enough to earn food and shelter!
Yet, I am sure there are many who are much more tuned in than myself.
#10 SimplyPut7 on 02.01.19 at 6:06 pm
“That’s the one thing YVR got right, their condo maintenance fees are not as ridiculous as Toronto.”
Condo fees are ‘low’ in YVR because we have something called ‘special assessments”.
Special assessments, which can easily run from $20,000 to $100,000 (per unit), are used to pay for building envelope repair, window replacements, catastrophic plumbing failure etc.
We specialize in those areas in YVR!
Once apon a time the machine got all your money. It wasn’t enough for the globalists.. Now it wants total control of you’re mind. They own MSM, the Schools. Your boss.
It’s why my drink of choice is burbon by the gallon. My only defence.
An Empty bottle with your eye ball stuck at the opening looking for more is where you can find the Truth.
It’s out there…just don’t tell anyone what you find.
That’s dangerous. Me a stupid gambler with no up side on the bet.
I blame it on the booze.
This condo is a piece of design.
All glass external walls.
Uneven room shapes.
Very strangely placed kitchen.
Miniature 2nd bedroom, barely fits the bed, might not be able to get around it.
Small, noisy (inner walls and floor concrete are usually very thin).
I guarantee 1.2-1.5 k per month between property taxes and maintenance in 5 years. Minimum.
For this unit anything short of 80-90 % decline from current price would still be considered as overvalued.
Additional features: no schools, grocery shops around, horrible transportation.
Cheers to the flippers.
McCallum went way out there ( off the map) on the hint – o- meter. He will be back. This Meng thing is a Trump made disaster. This will become more apparent as time goes on.
so condo prices are up 11%, but people who bought assignments are bailing and 22000 are coming online which will drive prices down.
start making sense ….
11 – after property taxes, insurance , utilities reserve for repairs (5k yearly minimum) transportation , food etc, the slice becomes thin.
I have clients who just closed on a semi for 750 , the house is falling down, structural issues , water penetration problems – all require immediate attention and disclosed in home inspection report – they have parents money otherwise they would be doomed.
Garth! Woohoo! The best thing about this housing correction is watching old people panic. Mmmm, nothing is more satisfying than hearing about some old person trying to sell their house *chef’s kiss* it’s payback for all their hoarding.
There, there, it will be alright. (Does that soound empathetic enough?)
#69 Vision The “one term” wonder has already lost the election in most of the ridings across Canada, expecvially in the ones that count the most – Ontario, Quebec, BC, the West and the Atlantic Provinces. Turn out the lights – the party is over.
“Meanwhile, as always, if you really need a house and can afford one, buy. But the rest of you, stay bemused.”
Offended by the genocidal greed is more like it.
Microsoft just deployed an anti-conservative plugin for their browser that filters conservative views.
To all you lefties – your world is now safe.
I’m sure twerp
#60 not 1st
Trump supporters say the darndest things
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q2E9lyxXCrQ
#80 Canadan Patriot on 02.02.19 at 6:42 am
—–
Best way to defeat this govt is just let them keep working. Its a daily clown show of ineptitude.
Newest bungle, Liberals have put the solvency of the CPP in doubt now so expect those increases to continue every year just like the carbon tax.
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/retirement/the-retirement-age-in-canada-is-too-low—and-thats-a-growing-problem/ar-BBT3PkX?ocid=spartanntp
#83 Godth on 02.02.19 at 8:00 am
—–
That’s funny, but not as scary as liberals thinking of 77% tax rates, (Bernie Sanders) abolishing all current forms of energy in 10 yrs (AOC) and abortions outside the womb (NY).
#10 Simply put 7. As a likely millennial cherub you can afford whatever you deserve.
Keep the portfolio. Search MLS for rent 3000-3500 and you have the pick of of most any 2-bedroom condo or townhouse. Or even a house if you extend just outside the downtown core in Hogtown.
…
– One time this leftist rag got it right. All the hand wringing and ‘Right’ Guilt being peddled around the homeless situation.
The just don’t care about us. It’s drugs first.
“It’s how I imagine prison, only with more booze and drugs.”
“I ask a cleaner – a sharply dressed, well-coiffed man probably in his early 30s – how long he’s worked here. He answers, “Five years. Ten too long. No matter how hard I work nobody gives a sh*t.” ”
https://nowtoronto.com/news/seaton-house-toronto-homeless-shelter-system/
As far as I can see, the whole idea was to buy and hold a house for a few months , and sell it for extra 300K-400K more, and repeat the process. This was a great deal right while minimum wage was $11 and change.
It did not matter how high the house prices or Does it really make sense to pay that amount.
There was no worries about servicing the debt, because it was temporary and short period of time.
– The up limit in prices is drawn by how much people can borrow to play the game. The prices can’t go high infinitely after all. The up limit is impacted by the interest rates, B20 etc. However It would have been reached by ‘income’ alone as well. That would take us a higher point in time before it starts falling apart.
– The Sentiment: How fast the game can be played, how easy to enter to and exit from the game. However, the defining factor is up limit, you can’t play the game if you can’t borrow first.
Now, we stand in a point , current up limit is not reachable by most of the Canadians and the sentiment is also negative. It is not easy to enter (forget about exit) the game.
This is the point the game is not attractive any more. And prices are important now since there is no exit with extra $300K, less than a month or in years ahead.
I do not see any direction but down and down a lot !
#83 Godth on 02.02.19 at 8:00 am
#60 not 1st
Trump supporters say the darndest things
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q2E9lyxXCrQ
—
Is this an admition that your side of an argument is invalid, by resorting to ridicule people far removed from conversation to “prove” your point?
86 year RE cycle topping in 2019:
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/real-estate/economic-real-estate-bubbles/
“This is the 86-year cycle due here in 2019. This really implies that we may see a Directional Change whereby the confidence in the future will start to decline because of political instability”
The global elite are about to make there move against the USA. Perfect scape goat The Donald.
Distributed Ledger technology will be rolled out this 1/4 by the IMF Bye Bye USD reserve currency.
Does anyone live in the Varsity Estate Towers in Calgary?
I find these to be rather pricey, are they worth the price?
Any input would be appreciated
The only way houses are ever going to be “affordable” is if people somehow start earning incomes that are at least 3 or 4 times higher than what they currently make.
In other words, it ain’t gonna happen.
Affordability = the ability to pay for.
That ship has sailed.
The ability to cover monthly interest payments is not affordability.
Government manipulation of the market always makes things more expensive in the long run.
They tried 10 years ago, and made a mess of the whole thing.
House on my street in Mississauga just sold within 2 weeks. Asking price was $1.2M probably sold close to asking. My street was selling for around $800k but at the end of the bubble it made giant leap to $1.2m in matter of months. There were 1-2 sales at $1.4 but you can’t really say my street was $1.4. So if we’re selling now for $1.2 it’s not much of a correction. The death of housing maybe greatly exaggerated
5 times family income. That is all the average condo in Toronto is worth, $350,000.
If you are paying more than that you are taking on excess risk.
Buy a TSX diversified ETF and rent, unless you can buy a dump and renovate. Renovating gives you valuable skills.
Now you know how much you overpaid last year for a chicken coop and 2 years ago for a Victorian energy pig.
Good luck. You now have a lifetime of hell.
The divorce will lead to your ultimate death. You were warned and now you get to suffer.
How do people on this blog still not get it? These condos are not meant to be lived in. They are a commodity, like pork bellies or Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice. You buy, you hold, you flip. You don’t live there. No one does.
that condo will a) sell and b) be back on the market in 6 months at 1.45M. Easy money for the flipper.
#90 Smoking Man on 02.02.19 at 10:25 am
The global elite are about to make there move against the USA. Perfect scape goat The Donald.
Distributed Ledger technology will be rolled out this 1/4 by the IMF Bye Bye USD reserve currency.
…….
Good job you loaded up all your millions in Iota.. it’s only crashed 10-fold
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/iota/
#91 Ole Doberman on 02.02.19 at 10:34 am
Does anyone live in the Varsity Estate Towers in Calgary?
I find these to be rather pricey, are they worth the price?
Any input would be appreciated
————–
They are very nice.
Unfortunately, no dogs allowed.
https://thecorrespondent.com/4503/the-bizarre-tale-of-president-nixon-and-his-basic-income-bill/173117835-c34d6145
I’d like to start with a simple question: Why do the poor make so many poor decisions? I know it’s a harsh question, but take a look at the data. The poor borrow more, save less, smoke more, exercise less, drink more and eat less healthfully. Why?
Well, the standard explanation was once summed up by the British Prime Minister, Margaret Thatcher. And she called poverty “a personality defect.”
https://www.ted.com/talks/rutger_bregman_poverty_isn_t_a_lack_of_character_it_s_a_lack_of_cash/transcript?language=en
Airbnb criticizes Hawaii attempt to subpoena host records
https://business.financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/airbnb-criticizes-hawaii-attempt-to-subpoena-host-records
Deplorable Bitcoinaire. on 02.02.19 at 12:21 pm
#90 Smoking Man on 02.02.19 at 10:25 am
The global elite are about to make there move against the USA. Perfect scape goat The Donald.
Distributed Ledger technology will be rolled out this 1/4 by the IMF Bye Bye USD reserve currency.
…….
Good job you loaded up all your millions in Iota.. it’s only crashed 10-fold
====================
Didn’t Smokie use bitcoins to buy the Iota?
“In Halifax, where it’s yet to snow this winter,…”
Lies! There was snow on the ground, when we landed on Boxing Day, and enough snow fell overnight on New Year’s Eve that my MiL thought our flight out would be canceled. (She was wrong, thankfully. Six days was plenty.)
No snow now. When it melts in a day it’s not really snow. Rained last week. – Garth
“In Halifax, where it’s yet to snow this winter,…”
Lies! There was snow on the ground, when we landed on Boxing Day, and enough snow fell overnight on New Year’s Eve that my MiL thought our flight out would be canceled. (She was wrong, thankfully. Six days was plenty.)
…
No snow now. When it melts in a day it’s not really snow. Rained last week. – Garth
….
Is it ever possible to admit that maybe you were not telling the whole truth?
There was merely some topping. Actual snow needs shovelling. None yet. – Garth
Not in this blog post I know, but could we please change the acronym to [email protected]? Asking for a friend.
A note to the ageist buy curious
Maybe a more fitting handle would be BI-CURIOUS
Upper case lettering so no one misunderstands
Deplorable you picking on our senior citizens!