Politicians. Used to be one, of course. Learned a lot. (a) You’re most popular on the day of your election. After that it’s a steady fade. (b) People rarely vote for you. They vote against the other guy. (c) Talk about ‘us’ and ‘them’ a lot. It always works. (d) Tell people what they want to hear in order to get elected. Then perish in the consequences.
Which brings us to Jason Kenney, who will doubtlessly be the next premier of Alberta. I know Jason. He’s talented, aggressive, opportunistic and cunning. He came to Ottawa as a young, lean, tax-fighting vigilante. He left as a corpulent, Harper ex-minister and Commons bully. Then he reinvented himself, ascending to the leadership of the equally reinvented AB con party. Next an election. Then the mantle from Premier Notley who, as Dippers go, stays in her lane
Well, let’s flip to the annual meeting of the Calgary Real Estate Board this week, and Kenney’s epic speech. He followed (c) and (d) perfectly, trashing the mortgage stress test and telling the desperate, sales-starved agents it was all Ottawa’s fault.
Ensuring homeowners in Calgary or Edmonton can handle higher interest rates, he cried, is “an unfair attack on Alberta home ownership. One of the reasons why homes are less affordable in Alberta today is because of unfair rules imposed by Ottawa to deal with the overheated real estate markets in Toronto and Vancouver. We did not have a risk of overheating . . . Ottawa has taken out a bazooka rather than a fly swatter to deal with this problem.”
The realtors lapped it up, of course. The housing market in Cowtown has been in a steady decline, with prices dropping annually along with sales levels. The local real estate board has identified the real cause: job loss. “The main factor is really that job market,” says its chief economist. “We continue to struggle with high unemployment rates, we are not expecting to see a lot of job growth, and that is weighing on our housing market…”
But Kenney would rather blame the East, and make Albertans feel victimized. It’s good politics. But is the stress test really unfair in markets outside of the GTA or the LM?
The purpose of the B20 test is simple. To reduce banks’ risk by preventing people from buying real estate they can’t afford. Since mortgage rates have steadily swelled from historic lows, and people will be renewing at higher levels, the test seeks to ensure they can handle the load. Especially in Alberta.
Kenney’s voters, as it turns out, carry more debt on average than any other Canadians, and most of that’s in the form of mortgages. Next in line are BCers, followed by Ontarians. Albertans also spend the greatest amount of their incomes, according to RBC, on servicing their debts – making them the most vulnerable to higher rates.
Who’s most in debt? Alberta tops the list
Making the squeeze more acute: homeowners in Alberta have taken out the greatest number of short-term mortgages. “While the proportions of variable versus fixed-rate loans don’t vary dramatically across Canada,” says the bank, “18% of mortgage borrowers have terms of two years or less in Alberta, which is by far the highest proportion in Canada.” That means more renewals to today’s higher rates by people who actually have the most debt and the biggest debt-servicing costs because (logically) they spent too much on real estate.
More from RBC: “The fact that Albertans—along with British Columbians and Ontarians—carry the heaviest debt loads on a per household basis in Canada inherently makes them more sensitive to interest rate increases. Their debt-service bills will get bigger, and possibly sooner than elsewhere in the country, when interest rates rise.”
So why should they be exempted from a measure to reduce borrowing, when they have already borrowed too much? Will more borrowing make anything better? Other than realtor commissions?
But wait. It’s about votes.
If fact premier-wannabe Kenney says, if elected, his party will work with credit unions “to help Alberta buyers sidestep the rules”. While the stress test only applies to federally-regulated lenders, many provincially-controlled CUs have adopted it as a prudent measure.
So, that’s the lesson for today, kids. People wanting your support will insist you’re being screwed, that someone else is responsible, and only they can fix it. It might be the Russians, the Chinese, migrants, tree-huggers or Ottawa. But it’s never ourselves. We’re just victims. It’s them. Not us.
Vote for me. Hold your nose.
198 comments ↓
Love it
Recent sale report.
Just as a follow up to my Race to a million, Richmond edition post I might as well show you guys what happened to this one as they were asking over a million and it went below.
The details…
3539 Bearcroft Dr,Richmond
Just sold for 988k
Asking 1.1
Assessment 1.02
So it went for 112k below what they would like you to believe it went for.
Not an outstanding structure but another detached in Richmond on the books for less than a million.
Dated, but definitely a respectable place to live for the new buyer.
Couldn’t see the Zolo listing so I will go with Bob Schmitz.
You know what they say, Bob Schmitz, he’s the…
M44BC
http://bobschmitz.net/mylistings.html/listing.r2324259-3539-bearcroft-drive-richmond-v6x-3b2.81372948
https://www.rew.ca/insights/399997/3539-bearcroft-drive-richmond-bc
If Trump inherited Obama’s booming jobs where did the manufacturing jobs and private jobs come from?
https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckdevore/2019/01/30/two-huge-effects-of-trumps-economic-policies-jobs-surge-in-both-manufacturing-and-low-tax-states/#1333679d7665
Pink Snow falling in West Vancouver.
At first glance, I thought a case that was removed the other day on Kings Avenue had come back on, but it was another one 1305 not 1036, also have one at 1280 all in similar position such was the speculation over that way.
Mathers Ave is still the real king with close to double digit number of properties going on and off the market in a game of chicken.
The details…
1305 Kings Ave,West Vancouver.
Paid 3.3 June 2016
Originally asking 2.97
Now asking 2.49
Assessment 2.99, down from 3.3
So there are 25-30 properties over that way that I have seen that are in a similar situation which could lead to million dollar losses.
Already some have bailed and taken the heavy hit but most keep waiting for a miracle that most likely will never come.
Who could blame them?
A million dollar hit on something that was supposed to be can’t lose must take a while to digest.
Like I said before, Mathers Avenue is a fairly big street,but from what I have seen just on that one stretch alone the potential for 10-20 million dollars in losses depending on when they sell, is more than possible if you bundled them all up.
That’s just the ones that have already hit the market, with more to come, no doubt.
People with a bit of money but a lot of leverage were sold on sunnier days.
It rains a lot on the North Shore.
It sure is raining hard on the parade of wannabe Queens and Kings…
M44BC
2018-11-13 : $2,975,000
2018-12-10 : $2,799,000
2019-01-21 : $2,810,000
https://www.zolo.ca/west-vancouver-real-estate/1305-kings-avenue
https://www.rew.ca/insights/59011/1305-kings-avenue-west-vancouver-bc
Here is the other property that I am waiting to see what happens with.
https://www.zolo.ca/west-vancouver-real-estate/1036-kings-avenue
Very interesting blog today. I remember Jim Prentice saying Albertans should “look in the mirror” when it comes to the financial woes squeezing the province.
As you say…that doesn’t go over too well in politics.
Was there ever any doubt.
Jason Kenney sounds like an NDPer!
So let me get this straight: Alberta has the highest wages(min wage is $15/hour)…and the lowest taxes(they only pay GST of 5%)…and i believe they have it pretty good when it comes to income tax (25% combined on the first 47k)
So please explain to me how lowering or getting rid of the stress test for Albertans will help people who have no sweet clue about money management???….
it was the investor class that created 2008, they own government, they blew up their own game in their greed and hubris, and then they own government – meaning everyone pays to make them whole and then some. it won’t be too different in canada, the losses will be socialized, the profits privatized and the rich will get richer, the poor poorer – and then give them a good kicking just for fun, feels so good.
has anyone ever played this card game: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_(card_game)
of course you have, we all do. when i’m on top i’m invincible, boorish, brutal, the dominator – take me down if you can scum, and hand over your best cards. mine, all mine.
Austerity and the Politics of Money
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B6vV8_uQmxs
This rhetoric is wild and seemingly insane. For Jason Kenney to present such a troubling position is dark foreshadowing, to say the least. With commentary like that from the most likely future provincial leader it may not be a stretch to require an appointed official to turn out the lights once Alberta truly goes dark. Oy vey.
@Flopper #125 (yesterday):
A quick trip to Google maps shows that property at 2547 Woodland Dr. was in a pretty sorry state in July 2018. Maybe a failed demo/rebuild project, an un-started demo project, or even just an empty lot?
Still, it’ll be interesting to see if there is a dent in the median sale price when the REBGV sales stats get released next week.
Price declines like this, and like some of the others that you’ve posted recently are going to be magnified by the small sales volumes.
Keep up the good work.
“Nolite te bastardes te carborundum”
Meanwhile the NDP in Alberta are going to run a fear campaign that if Kenney gets in, every single teacher and nurse will get fired, all the capital projects will grind to a halt and we will all revert back to uneducated rednecks, but then mention nothing about how the government is borrowing like crazy just to run the government with no end in sight.
I don’t care how much of a typical politician or snake Kenney is, I will vote for him because he is the only one who believes in small government, low taxes and that we don’t need endless government programs designed to redistribute wealth to those who don’t want to work for a living.
We don’t need government to keep changing rules to try and control markets. If people want to be slaves to a bank and debt their entire lives, who are we to stop them?
Everyone puts Kenney in the same boat as Harper, as they spit on the ground like Harper was some evil capitalist. Look at our current situation with Trudeau, we have pissed off countless other countries with our constant virtue signaling, the provinces all hate each other, and we are attacking our own industries that support things like free health care and education, as well as driving any investor confidence right out the door. Yes, this is so much better than 10 years ago when we had a Con Majority federally and in Alberta.
End rant.
“….aggressive, opportunistic and cunning.”
Ugh.
They have to lie to get elected. The other side lies so you have to lie too, just to stay competitive. The politicians know it and we know it. Nothing new here.
Politicians should swear an oath not to country but to not do anything stupid. That would solve a lot of problems right there.
Canada is a defacto dictatorship with no checks on power and we see the results of that especially successive liberal and NDP socialists who haven’t got a clue.
You should be disqualified from service if you have never had a business or had to make payroll. That would weed out a lot of deadwood.
Richer people should also get 2 votes and people under 30 should be banned from voting.
Garth needs to go down an escalator and announce his candidacy for something
#5 Mike in Cow town
Very interesting blog today. I remember Jim Prentice saying Albertans should “look in the mirror” when it comes to the financial woes squeezing the province.
As you say…that doesn’t go over too well in politics.
*****************************************
Yup that one comment sunk the conservatives and opened up the floodgates to an NDP crushing.
Kenney is just another savvy politician who talks to much and assigns blame where ever he can.
Alberta wont be in any better shape with him at the helm.
Smartalox
@Flopper #125 (yesterday):
A quick trip to Google maps shows that property at 2547 Woodland Dr. was in a pretty sorry state in July 2018. Maybe a failed demo/rebuild project, an un-started demo project, or even just an empty lot?
Still, it’ll be interesting to see if there is a dent in the median sale price when the REBGV sales stats get released next week.
Price declines like this, and like some of the others that you’ve posted recently are going to be magnified by the small sales volumes.
Keep up the good work.
“Nolite te bastardes te carborundum”
///////////////////
Hey Smartie, not sure what’s gonna happen, look at the data dump Zolo just did to shore things up for the end of the month.
https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/trends
Also thanks for telling me in Latin to have an extra scoop of ice-cream tonight…
M44BC
A fairly interesting Google would be “Jason Kenney troubles”
From his relationship with Rebel media to his claiming a $900/month housing allowance while living in Ottawa on an address that turns out to be his aged mother’s long term care facility in Calgary, he is turning out to be just the kind of modern con the rabble deserves.
“The documents show Kenney collected secondary residence subsidies in Ottawa between 2012-15 of about $10,000 each year, while his mother’s retirement home in Calgary was listed as his address with Elections Canada.
His address is also listed as a home in the southeast Calgary community of Inverness in a 2013 disclosure with Elections Canada, despite the fact his mother sold the property to a couple named Ron and Kim Worth the previous year, according to the supplied documents.
“Why was Jason Kenney lying to Elections Canada about his address in Calgary? Was he also lying to the Board of Internal Economy and the Canada Revenue Agency?”
If you are unable to successfully lie about a $10,000 per year swindle you aren’t ready to be a leader of any province.
I could go on and on about the type of person the modern con allows to filter into leadership but lets not forget it was Kenney who introduced the niqab ban that ultimately was a major force in Harper’s unraveling.
LOL….NOAA ‘Climate Prediction Centre’ gets it hopelessly wrong…..
https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/winter-outlook-favors-warmer-temperatures-for-much-of-us
Kenney is just capitalizing on Albertan fustration and anger (like is older orange cousin Donald T!).
No new ideas, same failed neo-con ideology, blame Ottawa, blame eastern Canada, so yesterday, so 1970’s!
Removing the stress test in Alberta would likely have little impact. The Albertan economy is going nowhere as a couple generations of politicians have placed all the provinces chips on bitumen, low quality oil and a slew of pipelines.
The price of oil is weighing on our dollar and decimating Alberta oil production.
Neither Ottawa nor OSFI have any hope of driving up the price of oil anytime soon.
The man is a sleazeball. I can’t bring myself to trust a guy who’s spent his entire career in politics, and as a hyper-partisan tool at that.
He’s entirely on the side of businesses that routinely screw over consumers – (car dealerships, remember the letter?), real estate agents, utilities.
Gath, head on down to Alberta, we need a good minister of finance to keep Kenney under control.
Just show up with the boots and the bike with dogs in tow and you’ll be voted in no problem.
Its also warmer here…
If finances back under the polar vortex are that stretched what the hell is going to happen when T2 hits them with an UN mandated super-inflationary carbon tax. Then Jacks it huge again when he wins a second term thanks to mad max.
Glad I’ve escaped, year-round flip-flops a nice bikini eye candy all year long.
The big problem with Calgary and Edmonton is that so few residents actually grew up there. Many residents are from the East coast, GTA and Lower Mainland so when unemployment rises people simply move back home. They leave behind empty homes and their cars at the airport. This makes the problem worse. If the oil price recovers and companies start hiring again, many people will be reluctant to move back to Calgary or Edmonton.
#17 guy from Calgary on 01.31.19 at 5:46 pm
Gath, head on down to Alberta, we need a good minister of finance to keep Kenney under control.
————————————————————– Christy Clarke is already there …
US Home Sales to Get Even Uglier in Near Future
https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/us-home-sales-to-get-even-uglier-in-near-future/
I am an Albertan and I 100% agree with today’s blog!
Politicians are liars…
Albertans, how the hell can you be servicing more debt than BC with it’s insanely inflated housing market? That’s quite the achievement. Maybe if you could’ve responsibly saved ANY income from the oil fields before the oil bust happened, you’d still be in good shape… but you’ve voted in and been run by clowns forever so who is surprised.
Highest debt load doesn’t surprise me as we also have the highest incomes.
Kenney is an opportunistic lunatic. He also wants teenagers that join lgbq support groups in their schools to be reported to their parents. He wants to bring us back to the stone age.
Their entire campaign has been to criticize the existing administration without committing to doing anything realistic. NDP bans BC wine, Kenney proclaims “WE WOULD HAVE DOE IT SOONER!” Whatever, he’ll probably win and nothing will come of it. He has already been caught claiming AB living expenses while living in Ottawa, effectively lying to elections Canada.
As an Ottawa-insider, Jason Kenney billed taxpayers for his mother’s flights, his photographer, and his limo rides. Now, we’re learning he also billed taxpayers for a “sky palace” valued at $530,000.
As a moderate conservative, Kenney is way too conservative and a victory for him would be an absolute shame. Not to mention he is clearly a liar and has already swindled tax payers before even being elected. He thinks climate change is a hoax and big business is already in his pockets. Screw this guy and send him back to the bible belt.
@ #76 David Driven on 01.30.19 at 10:46 pm – your comment nailed the bullseye of why CDN real-estate just goes up and up. Depressing but the truth is necessary for a mature and rational discussion.
Found the best news reporting on this huge CDN cover-up in the South China Morning Post. Many articles. This is Hong Kong’s newspaper of record which makes these article even more shocking. It’s a sad state of secrecy when not a single Canadian daily is willing to reveal things in such clear terms. This blog has vehemently denied the significant of this money on CDN real estate and yet the SCMP claims it is a huge problem….so what gives?
https://www.scmp.com/magazines/post-magazine/long-reads/article/2172269/what-next-vancouver-city-awash-too-much-chinese
CRA plays cover for foreign millionaires buying real estate but audits broke Canadians with disability expenses. CBSA passes them quietly through customs while you get pulled aside to pay duty on that extra bottle of wine you purchased. Sickening how your tax dollars are used against you.
https://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/2164782/revealed-how-canada-border-agency-tried-conceal
Hopefully the conversations will mature with time. Fingers crossed.
RBC says interest rates are going up then they lowered rates this week. Jerome Powell got beat up by Trump and while hawkish on rate hikes last month he’s now done a 180 turn. I don’t believe rates will move up at all this year. If anything, they’ll go down as the idiots at the top can now smell a recession.
Vote them all out!
cor·pu·lent
Dictionary result for corpulent
/ˈkôrpyələnt/
adjective
adjective: corpulent
(of a person) fat.
“a short, somewhat corpulent man”
synonyms: fat, fattish, obese, overweight, plump, portly, stout, chubby, paunchy, beer-bellied, thickset, hefty, heavy, heavyset, burly, bulky, chunky, well padded, well covered, well upholstered, meaty, fleshy, rotund, round, well rounded, broad, broad in the beam, of ample proportions, big, large, gargantuan, elephantine; More
informaltubby, pudgy, beefy, porky, roly-poly, blubbery, poddy;
informalpodgy, fubsy, lard-arsed;
informalzaftig, corn-fed;
nuggety;
technicalpyknic;
archaicsquabby, pursy;
rareabdominous
“his corpulent figure seemed to fill the small pulpit”
antonyms: thin
Wasn’t Kenney the dudette, along with rob Anders, who held a news conference to declare themselves celibate virgins…. just in case things got outta control in Ottawa!
This is such shockingly reckless rhetoric from Kenney and he surely knows it. As you point out, he is no dummy. I’m just sick of the real estate cartel and the politicians that believe they must prostrate themselves before them.
This is why Carole James is my favourite politician in the country.
the promises come out first but then one waits for the dirt.
is he biting his lips / his tongue or is he trying to hum?
Jason Kenney, the big man who wanted to “out” gay kids and their allies to parents, but won’t answer questions regarding his own sexuality. He was also very proud of the fact that he would have prevented people with HIV+ from visiting their dying partners in hospital. Loathesome little troll should STFU and crawl back in his hole.
My vote is for Kenny. Micheal Jean, was good, however he lost to Notley. Plus Kenny will provide a little Vermin to punch the Feds around. Ford + Kenny punch’s. Kenny will be Ralph 2.0. However Needs to drink more. Expect a few cream pies from provincial labour. It must be done.
Go UCP
PB43
#38 Sold Out on 01.31.19 at 6:22 pm
Jason Kenney, the big man who wanted to “out” gay kids and their allies to parents, but won’t answer questions regarding his own sexuality. He was also very proud of the fact that he would have prevented people with HIV+ from visiting their dying partners in hospital. Loathesome little troll should STFU and crawl back in his hole.
_ _ _
Doesn’t he live with his mom?
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/jason-kenney-alberta-residence-1.4985648
#32 Howard on 01.22.19 at 6:30 pm
Flop, are you able to find the price history on this one?
https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/2523-point-grey-road
A 3-bdrm duplex in Kitsilano.
Asking price $12.3million ???
///////////////////////
Howard, here is the information you asked me for last week.
Took a break.
Back with a vengeance…
M44BC
https://www.rew.ca/insights/69226/2523-point-grey-road-vancouver-bc
“Gath(sic), head on down to Alberta, we need a good minister of finance to keep Kenney under control. ”
——————————————
Get to the back of the queue.
B.C. needs Garth first.
@ Flopper #18:
That Zolo data portends scary things:
– in the REBGV stats package for December, 2018, the number of active listings (that I counted) was 489. Down dramatically from 1090 in November 2018. If the Zolo data is correct, and from Jan 1 to Jan 28, there were 1300 new listings in Vancouver, that’s going to be a massive surge. There’s already a predictable pattern in the monthly numbers for listings, surging higher in one month, then dropping precipitously in the third month, as contracts expire and stale listings are pulled en masse.
– Zolo puts the Median price for Vancouver houses at $1.2M on Jan 28, 2019. In the REBGV package for December the Median price was $1.66M. If that’s the case, (and it’s still not an apples to apples comparison) it will indicate a major breakdown (a 25% drop!) in median house prices. IN THE SPACE OF ONE MONTH.
If that doesn’t get the market’s attention, nothing will!
#40 AGuyInVancouver – Thanks for the update because I still thought he was living in the closet.
The purpose of the B20 test is simple. To reduce banks’ risk by preventing people from buying real estate they can’t afford.
—
Poor banks.
They can’t judge for themselves how much is safe to lend against a property. They are in the business of lending, how could they?
They need Ottawa to do their self-protection job for them.
Why don’t we just get the mortgage from Ottawa?
They could use the profit from responsible lending to balance the budget.
There is a political platform for you, aspiring politician.
#40 AGuyinVancouver
She’s the only one who’ll have him.
#39 Prairieboy43 on 01.31.19 at 6:27 pm
I worked in the oilpatch through twenty of the forty years of laughable Alberta PC dynasty. Don Getty, Ralph Klein, Ed Stelmach, Alison Redford. None of them could balance a cheque book without oil royalties to hide their fiscal incompetence.
For decades, Alberta had one of the lowest tax bases in the country, the highest per capita spending (conservative? oh, pulllease) and could have easily cornered the market in manufacturing and other industries, but, nooooo…… they blew it all away with nothing to show for it, unlike Norway, put trillions away in a sovereign wealth fund for its citizens. The Alberta Heritage Trust fund? Good luck with that empty bottle.
Remember the 80’s bumper sitickers? You’re probably too young. A refresher, “Please God let there be another boom and I promise not to pi$$ it all away next time” To quote Forrest Gump, “Stupid is as stupid does.” Any wonder why Albertans are the most indebted citizens in the country?
Kenney blaming the east for western woes and low world oil prices is a bit of a stretch.
Just like his provincial predecessors, Kenney has never been a true (c)onservative, just a true blue (C)onservative, a power broker who puts his lobbyists’ interests in front of the interests of the supposed average Albertans he claims to represent, just like his eastern populist cousin Doug Frod.
And now Albertans are showing the same signs of idiocy in returning that province to PC rule, much to the delight of Kenney’s power brokers and lobbyists who are salivating at the return to the PC trough.
If you’re looking to elect someone who has family values, try finding someone who has actually changed a diaper in his life, not a ‘cunning’ professional single politician who’s lives in his mother’s basement.
Most of the comments on the CBC Calgary website story (Jason Kenney promises to fight Ottawa’s ‘unfair’ mortgage stress test rules) were negative. I’ll probably vote for my UCP candidate anyway since he’s a sensible person, but I’m skipping tonight’s fund-raiser with Kenney in Cochrane.
#30 wtf AB on 01.31.19 at 6:02 pm
Albertans, how the hell can you be servicing more debt than BC with it’s insanely inflated housing market?
—
My guess would be that they loaded up on that debt at a time when everyone was flocking to Alberta for good paying jobs and still there was not enough hands available.
At debt time their economy produced more than enough to pass any stress test of that time.
And as we all agree: nobody knows the future.
@#11 Smartalox
Re; Flop
“Keep up the good work.
“Nolite te bastardes te carborundum”
++++
I was thinking
Keep up the good work.
“ignorare stulti”
#47 Dazed and CONfused
them’s fightin’ words ’round here. you better shut your mouth before the push runs you off boy.
ottawa would be in great shape if it was run by albertans. a private liquor store on every corner and we’re good to go.
Alberta is the only bastion of conservatism in Canada, and it’s only that way because they’re physically located over top of a bunch of oil–as soon as it got shaky, they Lefted Up just like the rest of this country.
The way to prosperity in Canada is to scheme to take things from other people–whether by working government jobs, outright fraud committed under the noses of bumbling and lax law enforcement, or riding housing prices inflated by government policy.
DELETED
All the Flop related…
I am not interested in real estate to check prices, but it seems insane that a single individual, on the blog of an other single individual, in their own time provide this information, in a G8 country, at the age of Big Data, AI, government and corporate mass surveillance.
There is a glimmer of hope, that the future will be survivable.
Couple of more days and Howard Schulz turns hardcore alt-right.
And I quote Jason Kenney’s Jan. 30 Tweet:
“Great to speak to a packed house today at the Calgary Real Estate Board’s annual forecast conference. A UCP government would urge the CMHC to remove its “stress test” for prospective homeowners in Alberta. It is preventing too many families from owning their own home.”
No worries the Stress Test will ever be removed from AB when it’s “Premier Designate” thinks it’s CMHC’s fault.
Yup, he’s pretty “cunning” Garth.
#52 RWZM
What a crock, the reason we so called lefted ourselves was due to the total incompetents of the so called right wingers that pissed away our good fortune during hundred dollar oil. We are so fricken angry that our Heritage Fund could have been???? They pissed away Ralphs 20 billion saved up fund. Those so called Conservatives (which I have always voted for besides the last time) were so corrupt they completely destroyed what could have been.
I am not a fan of either party leaders. Man, I sure do miss Lougheed.
THe Cons in Alberta created this mess by mismanaging funds and short sighted policies, Notley inhereted the mess and now the Cons will get in again.
You don’t have to be a genius to be comfortable and happy.
Buy a dump, renovate it yourself, rent out the upstairs to graduate students, work hard and don’t get married.
Rinse and repeat.
No risk and lots of reward and really easy.
Believe me as the money rolls in the other stuff just comes in naturally. They find you.
How people complicate their lives and end up in the poor house is beyond me.
As Forest Gump says “Stupid is as stupid does”.
#47 Dazed and CONfused on 01.31.19 at 6:53 pm
but, nooooo…… they blew it all away with nothing to show for it, unlike Norway, put trillions away in a sovereign wealth fund for its citizens. The Alberta Heritage Trust fund? Good luck with that empty bottle.
—
Rich Norway knew that no neighboring poor country could come and raid their wealth fund, it was sovereign.
Alberta could not have the same certainty, which might have influenced the motivation and dedication.
I don’t care what Kenney says as long as he get Notley and her regressive pole tax (that she calls a carbon tax) out.
Now if only we could find someone to take on Trudeau in a serious way. He’s aiming for a national pole tax too. I mean, we already have payroll taxes and property taxes. Do we really need another pole tax? What’s it suppose to accomplish (other than revenue)? Are people going to stop charging their iPads? Heating their homes? Showering? Eating?
The carbon tax, like the $15 minimum wage, are simply ways of increasing the tax burden of the 99%.
But I’ve found the spotlight. I’ve figured out who is controlling our reality.
The pervasive culture of ‘we’re all victims’ in this country is sickening. Where is the pride in being a survivor and overcoming through perseverance? Moral rot. The 1930’s showed us how this ends, i’ll be hedging my bets, but I won’t be the one holding the debt.
https://www.vice.com/en_ca/article/xwzdgj/the-definitive-ranking-of-the-most-easily-offended-provinces?utm_source=vicefbcaads&utm_campaign=global
Alberta is constantly mad. At various moments they have been mad about Sunday movies and seat belts and daylight savings time and the metric system and rock music and the French and transgender bathrooms and themselves. It is a province fuelled not by the energy locked away in the oil sands but by an all-consuming fire of anger in their hearts that I can only assume is the inevitable result of having a province founded by intensely sexually-repressed fundamentalist farmers. Anything bad that ever happens is never an accident of nature or an unintended consequence of a well-meaning idea; it is the result of deliberate sabotage by the federal government or the NDP or people on welfare or the CBC or hippies or the Rothschilds or all of the above in one great freedom-hating orgy. Alberta will never stop getting mad about everything, which is why they are the funniest province.
#60 akashic record
Rich Norway knew that no neighboring poor country could come and raid their wealth fund, it was sovereign.
Alberta could not have the same certainty, which might have influenced the motivation and dedication.
———————————————————
Complete B.S., the Cons could have easily put away and invested into our Heritage Trust fund for the future generation. They could have easily raised income tax by a couple of percent, or planed for the future like not paying 30 million for an overpass where it could have been done a couple of years earlier for half price. They have always been reactive instead of proactive.
Wait, if Kenney gets in it will be the same old story of slash and burn, thousands more will lose their jobs, the economy will tank more then it has now, he will slash taxes or get rid of the stupid carbon tax only to be replaced by a Provincial Tax due to the incompetence of the current government; people and businesses may flock back in great numbers only to create another boom in which we cannot keep up with infrastructure, schools, hospitals and pay triple what other Canadians pay for to update their infrastructure.
It never works, it is the same old crap/trap, politics as we know it does not work!! Cannot stand any word that comes out of any politician mouths….
Oops…
Nov. 2018 Real GDP (2nd -‘ve in the past 3 months):
-0.1%
Construction has now declined 6 months in a row (-0.33%).
Anything else that matters in $ terms is negative:
Energy -0.64%
Wholesale Trade -1.11%
Durable Manufacturing -0.66%
Finance & Insurance -0.74%
There were positives but matter little in $ terms:
Administrative and support, waste management and remediation services +0.85%
Arts, entertainment and recreation +0.86%
————————————————
From your Blog yesterday Garth:
“The boss worries about the economy. The worker gambles all on a house. One of them is nuts.”
And, the day before:
“I’m sticking with my long-held (and so far accurate) prediction that a 10-15% plop in prices in major markets would be followed by a years-long slow price melt. ”
————————————————
The boss was CORRECT for the wrong reason. Agreed on the worker.
Mother Nature (slow melt = 2-3 months) and I still want to know how many YEARS IS A GARTH SLOW MELT?
We will be in RECESSION (reported) by 2nd Qtr 2019. We are in the midst of it now. This will not end well for any of us.
The really tough truth about Alberta is how the province, supported by the Heritage Fund, could have been so much more, but Conservative politicians destroyed it over decades.
A comparable population and oil industry in Norway has socked away over 50X as much money for the people there.
https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2017/09/19/norway-s-oil-fund-hits-1-trillion-meanwhile-in-alberta_a_23215451/
Face it, my fellow Albertans. We have been fools, duped by decades of Conservative economic stupidity and far right politics aimed only at rewarding the wealthiest.
And now our politics is disintegrating into an even worse kind of tribal mess.
A sad legacy of the idiot right-wing people who have dominated this region since Lougheed.
“We need to be careful that we don’t find ourselves in a situation where people are taking on debt they can’t manage,”
Is what Notley said about Kenny’s speech
@#51 Acashick record
“…..in their own time provide this information…”
++++
After listening to your constant bleating …..
I’m not surprised that someone volunteering their own personal time to find, process and provide useful information about what’s really happening in Real Estate sales for other interested parties to assimilate for free…… would confuse/ annoy you.
Unless of course, you’re a Realtor ?
#60 akashic record on 01.31.19 at 7:52 pm
Alberta could not have the same certainty, which might have influenced the motivation and dedication.
———————————————————–
Sure, just like PET raided your Heritage Fund? Oh right, no he didn’t. Nice excuse for blowing it this time. Own it, kids…
Anybody heard of Stephanie Kelton? She’s a proponent of the so-called “Modern Monetary Theory”, or “MMT”.
I don’t know if I understand it fully, but so far as I can understand so far it is Keynesian theory on steroids. The main point seems to be that governments can print and borrow as much of their own money as they wish and the only constraint is inflation.
I suppose some of it sort of makes sense, why have unemployed construction workers when you need road repairs, just print the money and the repaired roads and bridges will be the value behind it. Everyone gets a job and we get new stuff that we all can use.
But I don’t know, it doesn’t sound all that new to me. Doesn’t the Fed already target inflation? Always keeping it positive? Aren’t they thus already implementing MMT and have been for a long time?
So far as I can tell, the Fed’s current modus operandi is “deflation is bad, so we’ll have acceptable levels of inflation” instead, whereas MMT seems to espouse “if some inflation is good, a whole lot of inflation is better”.
There is also a bunch of stuff in the theory about how governments don’t need revenue as long as they can print money and inflation doesn’t get out of hand. That is sort of true, so far as I can see, even Mises or Greenspan would have agreed with the idea that inflation through printing is just a universal tax. You had a dollar yesterday but today you only have 50 cents when expressed in purchasing power, and the currency printer got the difference.
But I think there is a flaw in the theory. MMT assumes that the government spending will create wealth because it deploys resources and labor and creates real things like bridges and roads. But the flaw would be that most of the money just gets wasted on useless things like Mount Rushmore or another welfare program or the F-35 program. MMT could only work if you can assume that for every dollar the government created, something worth a dollar was also added to the economy. I don’t think it’s anywhere near that efficient and probably operates more near a 20% efficiency, where by the time all the fraud and embezzlement is done you need $5 dollars of new money to create $1 dollar of true physical economic growth. It’s just human nature. If it’s not nailed down, someone will steal it.
Side note on human nature, and why we are where we are and always will be: Ever wonder why you need to pay Norton $99 a year to keep your computer running? Why do you need locks on your doors? Why do you need an alarm system in your car? Why do youth sports games need referees? Why do you have to be worried about phishing? Because almost everyone cheats. Not every day, but leave your bike unlocked when you go to grab a coffee and see if it’s still there when you get back. If it is, you live in a nice neighborhood and have a crappy bike.
There is a reason everything has a lock. That reason is human nature. That’s also why we created God. We needed someone who could put a lid on this mess. It is probably a shame that we killed him, because without him there are no constraints but the law, and we need people to enforce the law. Nietzsche said that the blood on our hands for killing God was the greatest crime ever committed. Well, I believe he was right.
(And no, neither Nietzsche nor myself actually believed that the gods we have really exist, my interpretation is that when killed God we also killed the social order. The implications here are profound. Even if you are an atheist, if you live in a Christian or Muslim or Buddhist society you must continue to be Christian or Muslim or Buddhist or society won’t work. We need the rules or nobody’s bike is safe even for a few minutes outside a Starbucks. And unfortunately, human nature is so bad that the penalties must be severe. If it isn’t nailed down somebody will take it. And if it’s valuable, eventually someone will come with a nail-puller.)
Anyway back to MMT. Now is again a good time to own gold. 5% if you have none, 10% might not hurt.
#59 Reality is stark
I met a guy like this, in 1984. He had a big party in his latest house, before he started to renovate it, a Victorian duplex at Avenue and Dupont. It was his fifth or sixth property at that time. His penny pinching was legendary among his large group of friends and buddies, most of them from the same old country.
#31 Guy in Calgary on 01.31.19 at 6:06 pm
“…Kenney is an opportunistic lunatic. He also wants teenagers that join lgbq support groups in their schools to be reported to their parents. He wants to bring us back to the stone age…”
Don’t have a position on Kenney except that anything is better than socialism having spent some miserable years trying to survive it’s latter stages. (I imagine in the beginning it was all sunshine and ponies…then it got very bad very fast.) Just curious, what is wrong with wanting to know what groups, organizations or clubs my teenagers belong to?
#51 Godth on 01.31.19 at 7:23 pm
ottawa would be in great shape if it was run by albertans. a private liquor store on every corner and we’re good to go.
————————————————————–
We tried having Ottawa run by Albertans, got a autocratic technocrat history buff who didn’t play well with others and some assorted flakes that caught fire when the sunlight struck them, though, to be fair, some of those were from Ontario. Oh and a rocking blog after the dust settled…
BTW Ottawa doesn’t need a private liquor on every corner – that’s what the Gatineau Costco is for…
Yooooo Hooooo Millenial Surrealist
Did I mention it’s gonna be a long 9 months for the PM….?
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-canada-politics-trudeau-analysis/amid-cries-of-traitor-canadas-trudeau-set-for-ugly-election-idUSKCN1PP29O
Italy, Germany and other European countries are sliding into recession according to numerous news sources.
China companies are now reporting losses where they reported profits last quarter.
It is interesting how the US is becoming the only game in town.
What is even more interesting is how the USD looks awfully weak….
Well of course they carry more debt. Rates are in the ditch.
How long did it take for Alberta governments to wipe out the Heritage Trust Fund?
#63 AR on 01.31.19 at 8:17 pm
Amen brother.
#68 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.31.19 at 8:29 pm
@#51 Acashick record
“…..in their own time provide this information…”
++++
After listening to your constant bleating …..
I’m not surprised that someone volunteering their own personal time to find, process and provide useful information about what’s really happening in Real Estate sales for other interested parties to assimilate for free…… would confuse/ annoy you.
Unless of course, you’re a Realtor ?
—
Relax… my comment was about the absurdity that this data is not fully transparent and available for the public.
Now I have to look up what the hell is bleating… must be some realtor stuff…
How bizarre… They bash Kenney because he thinks parents should know at least as much as the schools do about their own children, and then they gay bash him … Maybe take 20 to 80% off there fellas…
I glance at the Vancouver Sun news daily. Just for the items on gunplay, gang slayings, money laundering, opiod deaths and stuff like that. I let my paid subscription to “True Crime” magazine expire. Now I get this stuff for free. What a great place.
If fact premier-wannabe Kenney says, if elected, his party will work with credit unions “to help Alberta buyers sidestep the rules”. While the stress test only applies to federally-regulated lenders, many provincially-controlled credit unions have adopted it as a prudent measure
and they’re going to keep it because they are prudent
It seems to me, that the one straight shooter here is Garth. Who tells it like it is – “if you cannot afford it, don’t buy it”. If you keep that advice you’ll be warm when the wind blows cold. If you put a lot of hope in side stepping Kenney, you’re going to find it pretty chilly when the wind blows cold. Like it does in Alberta.
#70 Nonplused
So far as I can tell, the Fed’s current modus operandi is “deflation is bad, so we’ll have acceptable levels of inflation” instead, whereas MMT seems to espouse “if some inflation is good, a whole lot of inflation is better”.
that’s the thing, MMT is only describing more accurately what is already occurring. it’s myth busting. the fiscal hawks don’t scream when trump gives the pentagon another 100 billion a year to waste, tax cuts for the rich, bail-outs for wall st., etc. they sure start screaming when it comes to funding things people actually need and use though. where is the money going to come from? the same place the rest of it comes from.
Steve Keen: Does Modern Monetary Theory make sense?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QyzKblOtZjg
Norway and Alberta are nothing alike. Norway is a slim, small country with everyone living on the coast. No big infrastructure needs, small population and no deadbeat welfare queens like Quebec, Ont and the Maritimes attached.
I would think if 50 yrs of equalization wasn’t sent down eat AB would have a pretty dandy little sovereign wealth fund but eastern govts have been plundering it forever. That ends with Kennys election.
Alberta….
Oh boy, lots of anger and raw emotions there… I hope your life turns for the better over there.
#80 ImGonnaBeSick on 01.31.19 at 9:23 pm
How bizarre… They bash Kenney because he thinks parents should know at least as much as the schools do about their own children, and then they gay bash him … Maybe take 20 to 80% off there fellas…
————————————————————
He’s dog whistling to the non-home schooling fundamentalist whatevers crowd and being snickered at as maybe being a hypocrite at the same time – the snickering though is just another brand of the small mindedness that its criticising – jokes on everyone…
#70 Nonplused
Anyway back to MMT. Now is again a good time to own gold. 5% if you have none, 10% might not hurt.
————————————————————–
Actually the best time was Dec. 19th after tax loss selling. My one and only etf made up of large producers and streamers is up 11.6% and pays me 5.5% dividends to own it. This is my insurance policy. I expect a 25% return on this one in next few months.
So I had to do some googling on this. Latest income levels for the provinces show Alberta way ahead. Housing costs show median multiples for Calgary and Edmonton to be less than half of centres in BC.
So what gives? It was mentioned that higher income earners can handle more debt, but that doesn’t tell us why.
So I checked age. Alberta has the youngest average age of all the provinces. A whole 9 years younger than the east coast. That could be a big factor.
Were you are Harris’s after party last night? Wrong party Garth.
You missed the real party with the dippers at NDP headquarters in Nanaimo. Money laundering legend Meggs was in the house.
The spec tax papers were purposely held back in the mail for Nanaimo. They have been mailed out now.
NDP has BC locked down. Horgan would be smart to call an election within a year and won’t need the Green alliance. They are dominating. Get used to it Alberta. We pipe line drug money in BC, not oil.
And you have to love where Nanaimo is headed. Seriously. The people stood up, said house prices spiking are no good for anyone and homelessness is out of control. Hang in there Nanaimo. The Liberal mess won’t get cleaned up over night.
The most important thing right now is to get the public inquiry rolling. Richy rich on the ropes now.
Same as it ever was.
Politics.
Such a dirty word and such dirty people.
Speaking of elections, and I’m sure there are better forums to ask but haven’t found anything via quick superficial searches, but how can one see their voting record?
The reason I ask is that I voted for the 1st time ever in 2015 for a Conservative MP in York Region. He did not end up winning.
Come the 2018 provincial election I receive a letter from Liberals directly addressed to me. I’m unable to quote it verbatim but it was basically asking for my support “again”. Wait, what!??? I assume the most reasonable explanation is that it’s a boilerplate letter.
#77 expat on 01.31.19 at 9:05 pm
How long did it take for Alberta governments to wipe out the Heritage Trust Fund?
——————————————————–
It’d be helpful if they used some of the loose change in the Heritage Fund sofa cushions to actually add a graph or two of historical timelines but hey, let freedom ring…
https://www.alberta.ca/heritage-savings-trust-fund.aspx
https://open.alberta.ca/dataset/80ee4142-17f2-4bc7-b30b-18afd3dfe5c8/resource/1c95d123-fa1d-49e3-ad25-98599aba2fb4/download/heritage-fund-historical-timeline.pdf
So we have a new game in our neighbourhood now.
Just for some context, our street is sandwiched between two elementary schools. A Catholic and a public. The street is narrow and cars park up one side, by city permit due to most of the houses not having drive ways.
Enter global cooling (or whatever this is). Large iceberg like banks of snow have appeared on both sides of the street. They came at night. I think they’re glaciers but the wife disagrees. She says the snow plow left them there. I swear they move. I am sure I saw one sliding towards our house (I ran inside to warn the others but when we all came out again it had stopped).
At any rate, the effect of this glaciation has been to turn the street into a narrow single track laneway with just enough room for an SUV to pass slowly between the high banks of ice.
Which situation causes a problem. Parents like to drive their kids to school. Most of these kids could walk. For those who could not, there are busses. No one walks and the busses look empty.
So at around 7:45am each morning the fun starts. To drop a kid off at either of the two schools a parent must stop their car, exit, remove the child and walk up to the front door of the school to ring the bell. The schools are locked nowadays. Someone will come and let your kid in.
While this is happening, over and over again, traffic is backed up down the street. No one can get past the latest SUV to park out front of one of the two schools.
So they honk. And they get out of their cars and swear at each other. This morning two dads almost engaged in fisticuffs. A woman threw her purse at a mom returning to her idling mini van, causing her baby, who was still in its car seat, to shriek in fear (or laughter, we were doubled over in our house watching this, the baby may have been laughing too).
At any rate, that is the game. Drop your kid off, without being sworn at, or punched, or having something thrown at you, while the neighbours watch in bemused silence at the spectacle.
It’s fun. Another day in Toronto.
Speaking of others…
https://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2016/08/08/Chinese-Politics-Canadian-Real-Estate/
“What B.C. (Canada?) has failed to understand is that this dangerous flood of money (from China) has nothing to do with race. It’s the story of a particular class of people at the heart of a particular regime at a particular stage in its history. Much the same story could be written about the Russian oligarchs’ investments in property in London, England.”
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-canada-must-reassess-its-approach-to-china-if-not-we-may-get/
“President Xi has made it clear that he has no regard for the values of democracy and human rights that have been at the heart of the international liberal order since the end of the Second World War. He is an evangelist among developing countries for China’s model of economic advances achieved by a secure one-party state managing a close-knit family of oligarchs and state-owned enterprises.”
https://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2017/12/07/Chinese-Trade-Deal-Take-Canada-Cleaners/
“For well over a decade, the Canadian Security Intelligence Service has been doing its best to warn successive Ottawa governments and the public about the infiltration of Canadian institutions by agents of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the party’s quest to influence public life.”
My tongue has in excess of 8,000 nerve endings yet it still isn’t as sensitive as an offended Alberta con.
I will agree on the gay bash stuff…it says more about those who would chose to post it than it does about the man…especially when there is so much more to hi-lite about the career politician.
Story Time!
(its been a long time, eh?)
Just prior to the past Federal election my brother came out on a little visit. He brought along two of his Alberta friends, they all rode their motorcycles out, looked like a mini motorcycle gang.
All salt of the earth, worker drone, Alberta’s finest men types.
I gave them housing, food and booze for what was supposed to be a 4-5 day stay while they day tripped the north Island.
Over dinner on day 2 talk turned to the upcoming election. My singular contribution was the thought that Harper was at his best before date and would lose the election.
Buddy, without a word, gets up, goes downstairs and starts packing up. Gets on his bike and leaves.
I ask my brother what that was all about. Buddy apparently felt threatened by my remark and felt he might be unsafe staying in my home.
Seriously? Apparently so according to both brother and the other guy…basically ruined the vacation.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/444816/canada-median-age-of-resident-population-by-province/
yes, debt closely corresponds to age. If you take the
provinces by increasing age, and compare them to
decreasing debt, Alberta is first in both, NB, NS,
Ontario and Quebec (ie majority of populace) all rank
within one place.
OK I feel better. That was buggin’ me….
Garth goes to bed too earlier.. neglecting us westerners… fenying us s voice!!!! no wonder we want eastern bums to freeze in the dark.
#36 Howard on 01.31.19 at 6:18 pm
“… I’m just sick of the real estate cartel and the politicians that believe they must prostrate themselves before them….”
I just had my prostrate checked today, and the whole procedure was like a man trying to get the last pickle out of the jar…
#14 Yukon Elvis
They have to lie to get elected. The other side lies so you have to lie too, just to stay competitive. The politicians know it and we know it. Nothing new here.
******************
I know you are speaking some truth here King, so not a personal knock but, it’s exactly this type of acceptance and resignation that allowed 15 years of Lieberal kleptocracy in BC.
How about we veer more toward a competence-based
small but efficient governing group who, to some degree, represent the wider social fabric (but not for ”show” – really Justin, 50% boys and 50% girls…are you eight?).
#77 expat
Here is a complete break down on what is left in our heritage trust fund.
https://www.alberta.ca/heritage-savings-trust-fund.aspx
Most Albertan’s know that it should be at the very least at a minimum 100 billion if it was not for the most incompetent governments that we stupidly voted for (actually not much choice back then); not just Albertan’s suffer but all of Canada.
Slow clap to all that received the golden handshake and are currently enjoying the warm sun on some exotic beach laughing at the rest of us.
I’m an Albertan and the real problem with the province is we had it too good for quite a few years. Alberta has experienced some very bad downturns if in your 40’s and older i.e. early 90’s late 90’s, early 2000’s recessions. People have to be aware that good times don’t last forever and need to be aware of potential busts.
Myself, the housing sector needs to correct on its own and there will be causalities as experienced in present climate – unfortunately. Politicians like Jason Kenney need to stay away on this matter as we don’t need to continually bail out people for mistakes which we all make in life. The housing sector will do better if left alone in the long run and don’t need any band-aid solution.
The biggest problem I see is people continually want to be at the high standard exemplified in the past with all the high government wages (highest in the country) and private sector (currently suffering). This has created a continually higher debt situation with less revenues into government coffers.
I’m a UCP – let the market correct itself!
Canada GDP declines second month in a row, the definition of recession, yet no media reports this? It would seem the $600 million Trudeau bribes the media with has had its desired effect. Recent reports of how American billionaires and American political wonks colluded with Trudeau to tamper with Canada’s election is also going unreported? Shame on us.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/energy-slump-drives-canada-s-second-gdp-decline-in-3-months-1.1207120
62 rc99ar on 01.31.19 at 8:12 pm
The pervasive culture of ‘we’re all victims’ in this country is sickening…
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Yep. You said it. Victim mentality is a thriving business in this country, and in much of the West. It is the Cons fault. No it is the Liberals fault. It is the patriarchy. Gov’t must solve the problem!!
To the Blog Dogs – If you think you are a man of any stripe, then wake up tomorrow, look yourself in the mirror, and work towards what either you think is best for yourself/family, community, or country. But for the love of ***, stop thinking of yourself as a victim.
Do I think either the T2 gov’t (or previous Wynne / McGuinty in ON) are harm to this country – absolutely! Do I consider myself a victim of what they are doing, by over taxing me beyond all belief, regulating the sh*t out of business – not on your life. I refuse to consider myself a victim of our incompetent gov’ts.
I am working to support my family, our heritage (170+ years in this country), and our future, independent of those bozos. I am structuring my investments, side business, and life to limit their impact on me.
#54 akashic record on 01.31.19 at 7:28 pm
All the Flop related…
I am not interested in real estate to check prices, but it seems insane that a single individual, on the blog of an other single individual, in their own time provide this information, in a G8 country, at the age of Big Data, AI, government and corporate mass surveillance.
There is a glimmer of hope, that the future will be survivable.
*****************
It’s called a public service… a foreign concept to most realtors.
Flop provides a glimpse into what is happening and it has been quite accurate. Don’t like it…proceed to stick hand in sand or just scroll past.
FLOP…..thanks for the info (ignore the blog’s grinches)
SFH prices you post are intriguing(aka the less than sacred $ million).
I recall in the early 1990’s whereby Richmond prices had peaked…people went to PoCo seeking cheaper RE….yet drove the RE prices higher than Richmond’s.
IMHO..the “Joker in the Deck” is the strata market….again we see people priced out of SFH diving en masse to this option and driving up the prices…possibly to the point the strata units market price may EXCEED SFH.
PS: If this does occur…we have a seriously screwed market.
What can I say, but after living all these years; I really listened to politicians at all levels and find that they will say what the general mass are upset about.
I am sure anyone on this blog can say a political name that said he/she will ____ then make some excuse of why it never happened.
As for reverse mortgages, I would not touch it, only if really have to.
#72 Guy in BC on 01.31.19 at 8:52 pm
#31 Guy in Calgary on 01.31.19 at 6:06 pm
“…Kenney is an opportunistic lunatic. He also wants teenagers that join lgbq support groups in their schools to be reported to their parents. He wants to bring us back to the stone age…”
Don’t have a position on Kenney except that anything is better than socialism having spent some miserable years trying to survive it’s latter stages. (I imagine in the beginning it was all sunshine and ponies…then it got very bad very fast.) Just curious, what is wrong with wanting to know what groups, organizations or clubs my teenagers belong to?
************
Alberta…meet human nature. Repeat and Rinse!
BC meet human nature. Repeat and Rinse!
Let’s just knock out the excessive corruption and we all can breath a little easier. Laws need to be made against pillaging the public purse. More referendums on big costly projects – and realistic business cases.
Or we can stay the same…Yikes!
By the way Vancouver Island is becoming it’s own Province. We’re gonna rent Victoria out to BC on a yearly basis (for all the government buildings). No bridges though. Tourists welcome!
#79 akashic record on 01.31.19 at 9:20 pm
I read you wrong as well, but decided to go on rant. Apologies.
As someone who left unliveable Toronto to come and live an actual middle class life in Alberta I’ll keep it short and sweet. Alberta is the kind of place where dumb people are given more than enough rope to hang themselves financially, but smarter people can retire and live free in half the time it would take them to do so in any other part of the country. I love it here, no matter who’s running the place.
Re Alberta RE:
We were in Calgary last week…
Stayed in the downtown area…what a difference compared to Lower Mainland. Restaurants are few and far between..lots of FOR LEASE signs. See the economy is suffering.
A major (UGLY!!!)Condo project is near completion…..
Driving on the outskirts one sees disproportional network of roads/highways( aka unreal !)…on par with American cities….aka easy to get lost.
One travels by rural/farm acreage..then subdivisions in middle of nowhere..then more rural/ farm acreage..then….(repeat….)
Posted signs claim to offer condos in low $100,000’s…cookie cutter SFH in $400,000’s. The land is effectively free….most of cost is the actual build aka improvement.
Albertans apparently like to pi$$ away their earnings on conspicuous consumption toys like RV’s, expensive boats , ATV’s etc.
PS:Sure glad BC built that WALL called Rockie Mountains…..
In a really up beat mood this week!
https://www.truthdig.com/articles/the-world-to-come/
Lol at the Alberta comments. You guys are morons. “Alberta could of been so much better” “Alberta blew it” “Alberta wasted it’s oil money” “conservatives screwed it up”
You do realize that it was Alberta conservatives that made the province DEBT FREE. All the while paying BILLIONS every year in transfer payments. Instead of crapping on Alberta , maybe it’s time the rest of the country pulled up its slacks and contributed
Perhaps Albertans are simply tired of being told what to do by the Eastern geniuses who make the rules in this “country”.
Besides, why shouldn’t banks be able to write loans as they please? I say to hell with CMHC and let the market sort itself out.
BTW, Norway didn’t share their tax revenue with 25 million other people, so of course they were able to save much of it.
And to compare Alberta to Norway is reallllllyyy missing the forest for the trees. Not even close to the same situation and to blame it on the conservatives is idiotic. Ya, we’d be much closer to Norway with the NDP running 10 billion dollar deficits…
I have a stress test for you.
Mortgage no more than 2x gross family income.
Doing a little more thinking into “Modern Monetary Theory” and I think I’ve come up with a way it could work.
Let’s say the US government just decided to print up $200 billion dollars, but they were going to specifically spend it on 10 new nuclear reactors. And by “new” I mean modern, experimental designs. So we get 3 or 4 thorium reactors, a few fluoride salt reactors, maybe a fast breeder, maybe some more traditional designs with modern technology. See what works. 10’s or even 100’s of thousands of people would be employed, and at the end of it we would know what works and what doesn’t. Plus we’d have solved the Climate Change and Peak Oil problems simultaneously. Then print up another trillion dollars to deploy the best design all over the place. The reason I could see this working is because the printed money actually results in useful infrastructure that has long term value. Power prices would be lower. Global warming averted. Peak oil irrelevant. Wars in the middle east unnecessary. Elon Musk would have something to charge his cars. Garth could blog indefinitely and we could all power our devices and read it.
But I think that is the key to making MMT work, you have to have a reasonable expectation that when you create a dollar it results in something worth a dollar coming into existence. Spending the money on “freedom of navigation” exercises in the Taiwan straight or “universal income” and such will just cause inflation.
We know that we are going to have to deal with the fossil fuel problem eventually, whether because of peak oil or because of global warming. However much fossil fuels we have left or however high the maximum amount of CO2 we can pump into the atmosphere is, both must be limited. I don’t know what the limits are or how long we’ve got, but it seems silly to argue that there are no limits. So why not try and solve this problem? We now know that wind and solar won’t do it by themselves, so why not try something different?
#81 WUL on 01.31.19 at 9:26 pm
What a great place.
——-
You should move to the prairies. The polar vortex really keeps people in line.
Jordan Peterson on climate change…
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/climate/professor-jordan-on-climate-change-the-reality/
#92 and #100
Thanks – I remember so long ago when I lived there how proud Albertans were of their Fund. It was a badge of honour for hard working people to know their govt wasn’t blowing their wad with the cash.
Lougheed was truly prescient when he created it.
I believe wasn’t it worth 60-90 billion at one point?
17 billion left? WOW.
It was always to protect Albertans during bad times. Instead it built hospitals with union labour and paid salaries to public workers…
SAD
#116 very interesting ideas
However, The ECO-TERROR hate everything capitalist industry hates reactors.
You would be hate swarmed for suggesting such rubbish like Thorium….. (I love it) it would be fun to see if these suckers actually shutdown like they say they do
Since ECO-Terror lobby groups now control our society I suggest that funding these ideas would not be allowed.
Great ideas though
Remind me: Why do we need stress test at all?
We have the most prudent banks in the world who would never ever originate a mortgage without proper screening (so no sub-primes here, by definition all are high quality loans).
Plus the population is wealthy and rarely needs loan as everybody is cash rich.
I also wonder why we need CMHC to insure mortgages when the banks are prudent and everybody is rich, or BoC to play with interest rates, when we have the most free market economy in the world.
Any thoughts?
What is the average home in Alberta?
How is it possible that they have more mortgage debt than Vancouver and Ontario when their average homes (I thought) are much higher than the rest of the country?
Given that they have the highest average income, does this mean their mortgages are on average much higher as well in dollars as well?
Are Albertans even more foolish?
#110 Lost…but not leased on 01.31.19 at 11:57 pm
Re Alberta RE:
—-
Did ya see any opioid zombies or 2 million dollar crack shacks?
Maybe if you coast dreamers had an economy based on a actual products instead of fossils and foreigners with dumb real estate money, you might see what happens in an open market economy.
Calgary is in a good position to bounce back. They have had their correction, BC hasn’t yet but will.
RE: #118 Midnights on 02.01.19 at 3:40 am
Jordan Peterson on climate change…
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/climate/professor-jordan-on-climate-change-the-reality/
You can’t tax poverty.
You can tax middle class people who have incomes capable of being reduced.
So find a cause, that will result in the middle class having to pay more.
Global warming! Tax home heating costs, gasoline, consumer goods, groceries, transportation.
The only problem with this carbon tax on everything, is it will make it impossible for the poor in Canada to afford food and shelter. The middle class will suffer. The poor will starve.
And the money collected will go to funding international groups whose members take private jets to their conferences and travel around in chauffeur driven vehicles while they’re there.
It is strange, 2 weeks ago I expressed similar opinion on Canadian politicians and I was schooled. Now it seems the audience is coming on board. It takes time, I know.
No word on the polar vortex, I guess that is becoming the new winter norm after T2 won the war on climate change with the carbon tax.
I think we need a new climate change insurance bureau of Canada/crown agency to insure everything against climate change.
2 grand per person per year as a premium (it is not a tax but a premium) sounds reasonable. Polar bears, birds, will be eligible for claims.
A tearful annual public apology will be scheduled and televised (the media will get proper grants). Free pot will be provided at the event.
polluter pay
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/supreme-court-redwater-decision-orphan-wells-1.4998995
==================================
“PC premier Ed Stelmach directed $30 million of taxpayers’ money into the orphan well program to stimulate the oilpatch after the 2008 global recession”
#118 Midnights on 02.01.19 at 3:40 am
—
Excellent post on climate change, I totally agree with Prof. Jordan’s thoughts.
#108 DON on 01.31.19 at 11:47 pm
#79 akashic record on 01.31.19 at 9:20 pm
I read you wrong as well, but decided to go on rant. Apologies.
—
Thanks… I can take some punches, just not sure how I managed to come across the opposite way, even with my alien English.
#12 Guy from Calgary
We don’t need government to keep changing rules to try and control markets. If people want to be slaves to a bank and debt their entire lives, who are we to stop them?
——————————————————————–
This is exactly right.
Simple.
However, governments and financial institutions need to at least advise the self destructive borrowing addicts out there that they must be fully aware under no uncertain terms that they are proceeding at their own risk.
The debt horny need to know that there will be no bailouts if they fall on their faces. The consequences will be the borrowers’ alone to bear once the tide turns.
Job loss, market collapse, economic changes, life circumstances, or whatever the reason, the borrowers must know and understand the risks up front.
When shit goes south, they will only have themselves to blame.
Shame on the slime bag politicians who make a career of twisting the truth and finger pointing. With these dirtbags, it’s always somebody else’s fault.
@#84 not 1st
“That ends with Kennys election….”
++++
Let’s go back to why Queen Redmond lost the Alberta election to the NDP . The 1st time in Alberta’s history a socialist style govt took the reins.
Ms Redmond built a ridiculous apartment/office on the taxpayer.
Ms Redmond flew her and her entire enterage to South Africa for Mandela’s funeral.
On and on and on.
All while oil prices were tanking and rigs were leaving the province in droves.
The voters had enough of the arrogance, the rot, the lies, the corruption ( see BC for explanation).
As Garth said, “You dont get voted in, the other guy is voted out.”
NDP Notley inherited an unholy mess and the oil patch decided to stay away for 4 years. The oil/gas will still be there.
Her inexperienced crew hasnt helped.
BC’s environmentalists and govt stalling the inevitable pipeline hasnt helped.
Trudeau hasnt helped.
If you really think a professional politician like Kenney is the answer…..good luck with that.
He’s in it for one reason. Himself.
One can only hope Notley leaves him a bigger mess than Redmond left her…..
DOJ alleges that the birth tourism operations advertised access to “‘the most attractive nationality’; ‘better air’ and less pollution; ‘priority for jobs in US government’; superior educational resources, including ‘free education from junior high school to public high school’; a more stable political situation; and the potential to ‘receive your senior supplement benefits when you are living overseas.'”
the DOJ unsealed indictments that charged 19 people. Dongyuan Li, 41, who was one of the three arrested, is alleged by the DOJ to have received $3 million in international wire transfers from China in just two years, serving more than 500 Chinese birth tourism customers.
The indictment details communications Li allegedly had over whether to refund a down payment because a customer found out that her baby was a girl and “her husband had arranged an abortion for her.”
The other two defendants arrested, Michael Wei Yueh Liu, 53, and Jing Dong, 42, are accused of operating a company called USA Happy Baby Inc., that charged ‘VIP’ customers up to $100,000. The indictment also alleges that Liu and Dong used 14 different bank accounts to receive more than $3.4 million in international wire transfers from China during 2013 and 2014.
Federal prosecutors also unsealed indictments of 16 people who are believed to have fled and are now considered fugitives. All are linked to alleged Southern California birth tourism companies that catered to predominately wealthy Chinese clients.
Among the 16 defendants believed to have fled, one had told federal agents that his birth tourism business investment was “chump change,” because he had more than $10 million in his bank accounts in China, according to the DOJ.
The US arrests ‘birth tourism’ operators linked to China for the first time
By Cheri Mossberg and Caitlin Hu, CNN
Updated 6:55 AM ET, Fri February 1, 2019
“Statements by the operators of these birthing houses show contempt for the United States, while they were luring clients with the power and prestige of US citizenship for their children. Some of the wealthy clients of these businesses also showed blatant contempt for the US by ignoring court orders directing them to stay in the country to assist with the investigation and by skipping out on their unpaid hospital bills.”
A multi-million dollar crime ring
I have this game I play when I drive to the GO station in the morning: I count the number of commercial trucks on the road. I don’t count the Ford 150 types or the cargo vans.
Back in 2012 I would typically count about 120 trucks each morning, and this increased until this November I counted over 450 trucks. But for 2019 the count is 350ish. I don’t know if this is temporary due to the winter, or if sales are down, but the next set of numbers on the economy are going to be interesting.
Illuminati at work in Alberta, in support of Jason the day after Garth assesses him.
https://ca.yahoo.com/news/drivers-small-alberta-town-plagued-232512378.html
Coincidence? I think not.
I think not.
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/canadian-wages-will-go-bank-canada-deputy-governor-says-213150511.html
Yep, life will be beautiful some day, waaaaaaaay down the road.
Brexit.
2 YEARS of political dithering, squabbling, backstabbing, posturing, lies and deceit.
54 days to go…..
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-stockpiling/a-matter-of-life-and-death-uk-stockpiles-drugs-as-no-deal-brexit-feared-idUSKCN1PQ3JQ
#103 PastThePeak on 01.31.19 at 11:21 pm
62 rc99ar on 01.31.19 at 8:12 pm
The pervasive culture of ‘we’re all victims’ in this country is sickening…
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Yep. You said it. Victim mentality is a thriving business in this country, and in much of the West. It is the Cons fault. No it is the Liberals fault. It is the patriarchy. Gov’t must solve the problem!!
To the Blog Dogs – If you think you are a man of any stripe, then wake up tomorrow, look yourself in the mirror, and work towards what either you think is best for yourself/family, community, or country. But for the love of ***, stop thinking of yourself as a victim.
Do I think either the T2 gov’t (or previous Wynne / McGuinty in ON) are harm to this country – absolutely! Do I consider myself a victim of what they are doing, by over taxing me beyond all belief, regulating the sh*t out of business – not on your life. I refuse to consider myself a victim of our incompetent gov’ts.
I am working to support my family, our heritage (170+ years in this country), and our future, independent of those bozos. I am structuring my investments, side business, and life to limit their impact on me.
_____
Amen X100 to the above. I gripe about the government – always have, always will – but I don’t expect any good to come from it. If I want change, I can vote (in a few different ways), and I can buck them off my back, and then make it real tough for them to climb back on.
There is a lot to like about Canada, and I’d rather not leave; but we’re past the point were governments can make good decisions and not get booted out come next election. I’ve decided that the priorities of many Canadians are backwards, and the Governments these folks elect will join hands with global forces to slowly erode the economy and prosperity of everyone living here.
As a result, since 2016; my taxable consumption has taken a massive nose dive. My income tax remittance is as low as it can possibly be. I decide which rules I follow, and which I ignore. Every time I have an option to avoid taxes – I take it. That includes everything from gassing up at the local FNR to replacing expensive items via Kijiji instead of retail.
After some consideration, I am content to let my fellow countrymen pay the bill. I hope some day many will reach the same point I did and actually DO something to improve their miserable condition.
If you consider yourself a victim of some unseen force, you are in fact – a tool. You’re being played like a fiddle. Someone else put that idea into your head – and you’re the dork that picked it up and ran with it.
@#95 Ustabe on 01.31.19 at 10:22 pm
My tongue has in excess of 8,000 nerve endings yet it still isn’t as sensitive as an offended Alberta con.
I will agree on the gay bash stuff…it says more about those who would chose to post it than it does about the man…especially when there is so much more to hi-lite about the career politician.
Story Time!
(its been a long time, eh?)
Just prior to the past Federal election my brother came out on a little visit. He brought along two of his Alberta friends, they all rode their motorcycles out, looked like a mini motorcycle gang.
All salt of the earth, worker drone, Alberta’s finest men types.
I gave them housing, food and booze for what was supposed to be a 4-5 day stay while they day tripped the north Island.
Over dinner on day 2 talk turned to the upcoming election. My singular contribution was the thought that Harper was at his best before date and would lose the election.
Buddy, without a word, gets up, goes downstairs and starts packing up. Gets on his bike and leaves.
I ask my brother what that was all about. Buddy apparently felt threatened by my remark and felt he might be unsafe staying in my home.
Seriously? Apparently so according to both brother and the other guy…basically ruined the vacation.
_______________
eesh, that’s one sad human.
@#93 Ace Goodheart on 01.31.19 at 10:08 pm
So we have a new game in our neighbourhood now.
Just for some context, our street is sandwiched between two elementary schools. A Catholic and a public. The street is narrow and cars park up one side, by city permit due to most of the houses not having drive ways.
Enter global cooling (or whatever this is). Large iceberg like banks of snow have appeared on both sides of the street. They came at night. I think they’re glaciers but the wife disagrees. She says the snow plow left them there. I swear they move. I am sure I saw one sliding towards our house (I ran inside to warn the others but when we all came out again it had stopped).
At any rate, the effect of this glaciation has been to turn the street into a narrow single track laneway with just enough room for an SUV to pass slowly between the high banks of ice.
Which situation causes a problem. Parents like to drive their kids to school. Most of these kids could walk. For those who could not, there are busses. No one walks and the busses look empty.
So at around 7:45am each morning the fun starts. To drop a kid off at either of the two schools a parent must stop their car, exit, remove the child and walk up to the front door of the school to ring the bell. The schools are locked nowadays. Someone will come and let your kid in.
While this is happening, over and over again, traffic is backed up down the street. No one can get past the latest SUV to park out front of one of the two schools.
So they honk. And they get out of their cars and swear at each other. This morning two dads almost engaged in fisticuffs. A woman threw her purse at a mom returning to her idling mini van, causing her baby, who was still in its car seat, to shriek in fear (or laughter, we were doubled over in our house watching this, the baby may have been laughing too).
At any rate, that is the game. Drop your kid off, without being sworn at, or punched, or having something thrown at you, while the neighbours watch in bemused silence at the spectacle.
It’s fun. Another day in Toronto.
______________________________
Not surprised. That’s a particularly crappy nieghbourhood you live in.
I love Alberta, lived there only for one year but it was a real town atmosphere in Calgary with nice people. Much more friendly than GTA. Alberta however is an economy based on oil. Albeit the tourism portion can not be matched anywhere for beauty. My license plate out there said Wild rose country, it should say Alberta BOOM & BUST. They will Boom again so just remember that when your dissing them.
@#19 Expat, the AB heritage fund was never anywhere near $60 to $90 billion. And remember, if Alberta were to pad the fund that much, they could only do so by putting 100% of oil & gas royalties into the fund, and use taxes to cover 100% of government spending. Which means tax levels at or higher than the other provinces.
Everyone admires Norway and their sovereign wealth fund. They ignore 3 things. 1) Norway is a country, not a province. Norwegian taxpayers don’t send money to some larger federal government only to get part of it back. 2) Norway has sky-high tax rates that cover 100% of their generous welfare state. 3) Household debt levels in Norway are among the highest in the world. Higher than Canada, higher than Australia. Only Denmark, the Netherlands, and Cyrpus are higher. I gathered these numbers several months ago, so some might have changed slightly since:
Household debt as % of disposable income:
1) Denmark – 241.22%
2) Netherlands – 212.9%
3) Cyprus – 196.56%
4) Norway – 194.97%
5) Australia – 185%
6) Switzerland – 178.57%
7) Canada – 173.84%
Household debt as % of GDP:
1) Denmark – 127.5%
2) Netherlands – 121.9%
3) Cyprus – 117.2%
4) Norway – 107.8%
5) Australia – 106.8%
6) Switzerland – 101.6%
7) Canada – 100.5%
Source: Trading Economics
https://tradingeconomics.com/
Still admire Norway and their massive sovereign wealth fund? Now tell me, what is the point of having a wealthy government if your citizens are still among the world’s most indebted? Seems that sovereign wealth fund hasn’t done much for Norwegians. Their government is sure rich though.
Alberta has many problems due to short-sighted politicians. The size of the heritage fund is not one of them. A rich government does not equate to a rich populace. Not by a long shot. With the exception of the CPP and QPP, I hope never to see the day in which any level of government in Canada decides that socking money away into a sovereign wealth fund is a good idea. Governments exist to serve the people, not to enrich their own balance sheets.
Markets are surging.
Two reasons. Fed on hold. The bigee.
Ceo of Starbucks not backing down from running as an independent guarantee a Trump victory in 2020.
If he pulls out. There will be a reset. If he makes it official The Markets to the Moon..
The markets love capitalism.
#113 nWO4life
This would seem to be a fair compromise for those that feel they’re hard done by. Want to avoid the OSFI stress test? Then no CMHC coverage for you. The banks can decide if they think you’re worth the risk or not, without having the option to call on CMHC for funds if you aren’t. There may also be a case to make these mortgages non-recourse loans, but I believe within Alberta they already are.
@ Millenial Surrealist
Gee.
Looks like Trudeau may be pandering to the ” Boomer vote” in this election….
https://ca.reuters.com/article/topNews/idCAKCN1PP2TL-OCATP
Pot for the Millenials last election…..
Prescription meds for Boomers this election…..
And, moving forward, Millenial taxes pay for most of it….
LOLOLOLOL
300k more jobs in USA Boom. Deregulation and cutting taxes works.
In Canada T2 starts up the ministry of Truth.
Headed by people from the Toronto Star.
1984 is here.
https://www.blacklocks.ca/feds-to-hire-truth-monitors
Recommended watching for anyone with any interest (from either side of the debate) in the feasibility of replacing fossil fuel sources.
They guy is a good presenter, and is pro-renewables & conservation, but also “believes in math”. I like him, because he is looking at the real world, wants to solve the problem, but doesn’t believe unicorn tears will make the math better.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E0W1ZZYIV8o
Unfortunately, the vast majority of people on our planet involved in this topic simply shout at each other (mostly online), protest building anything, and solve nothing.
Bravo! Possibly your most lucid and erudite post to date. Blame sells and reality blows.
T2 re-elected Nutley re-elected, Horgun in power, Alberta becomes have not.
Payback soon from transfer payments.
“The New West”
’nuff said:
https://business.financialpost.com/real-estate/toronto-new-home-sales-plunge-as-buyers-balk-at-spiraling-prices
:) Since getting your hands dirty and avoiding taxes came up:
The old air compressor finally died for good last weekend. I have repaired this one 2X – but it’s toast now. I looked at mid sized units at CTC and Princess Auto. Bought one off Kijiji same size, better CFM, way better quality, hardly used, came with a couple lines and a few tools to boot.
Half price. No tax. 15 minutes down the road.
Earlier this year I bought a top of the line pellet stove used. 15 years old, sat unused and unloved for the last 5, “should work”. A new one of these is $5300.00. I have heated with the exact same unit on our main floor for 14 years and know it inside and out. I bought it, fixed it via the leftover parts pile from our current stove, and it has been heating our cellar and back room ever since.
$700.00 for top quality but left to rot/broken stove, fixed for free, works perfect, zero tax.
I had to buy another skid of wood pellets last week thanks to running 2 stoves now. I noticed the price was up. I am going to build a downdraft gasification/rocket stove hybrid to burn local waste wood and try that for a year.
Build DDG/RS heater for 100.00 worth of leftover/scrap steel. Sell pellet stove I just bought and repaired for $2000.00. Take off the 700.00 I paid for it, and the 100.00 worth of gas I went through picking it up, and 100.00 of scrap steel – and I’m 1100.00 richer while still heating the same area, yet totally eliminating the fuel costs. Well – that’s the plan.
There are two main reasons why Albertans have more debt per capita than the other provinces. And no it’s not because we all bought fancy 4X4s with “truck nuts” hanging off the back (although there are a few of those around).
1) We have the youngest population base. 36.5 is the median age. Next are Sask and Manitoba at 38.2 and 38.4. Move to the opposite end of the scale and no surprise you find the provinces with the oldest populations have the lowest debt (except for Newfoundland). It’s not hard to figure this out, young people buy new houses mostly with debt and have the large costs associated with young families. Old people have time to pay down their debt, especially once their kids move on.
2) Highest average income. Higher incomes support more debt load. Alberta clocks in at $92,300 per family. Sask is next at $77,300. Then Ontario and BC at $73,700 and $72,200. Of course it’s no surprise that young people (who are the most likely to move for a job) flock to where they get the best pay.
Demographics play a much bigger part in this whole discussion than simply saying everyone in AB is a Red Neck who’s irresponsible with debt.
I also hate to break it to you AB haters. Most people you meet in AB are from other provinces. We’re really just a reflection of Canada as a whole.
#118 Midnights
Jordan Peterson is entirely correct (except about more trees in the N. hemisphere), there’s no solution to a predicament. he didn’t even mention the ongoing ecocide. it’s what Ronald Wright calls a progress trap. Guy McPherson is entirely correct too, we’re going extinct in short order.
we can expect immense violence and then eternal silence as the naked ape will be no more. life on this blue-green orb will be reduced to single cell organisms bathed in ionizing radiation, our lasting legacy.
#148 i.see.debt.people on 02.01.19 at 10:55 am
’nuff said:
https://business.financialpost.com/real-estate/toronto-new-home-sales-plunge-as-buyers-balk-at-spiraling-prices
…………………………………………………..
Toronto new home sales plunge to lowest in almost 20 years as unsold condos pile up. Yep!
‘Greater caution’ should be taken when investing in new condo units, warns research firm. This is starting to come to its zenith now. Shortly impractical unsalable condos will deluge the market for the next ten years. That’s exactly what the doyens have been saying and it’s starting to finally gel. There will be an enormous number of families losing investment money either through their own domicile investments or the re-sale of their aging boomer parent’s condos when they depart this world.
#81 WUL on 01.31.19 at 9:26 pm
I glance at the Vancouver Sun news daily. Just for the items on gunplay, gang slayings, money laundering, opiod deaths and stuff like that. I let my paid subscription to “True Crime” magazine expire. Now I get this stuff for free. What a great place.
_____
I have some heavy, track laying iron that is good at removing most things and leaving clean bare earth behind.
I hear retired Barristers make great Cat Skinners…
#145 PastThePeak on 02.01.19 at 10:22 am
Recommended watching for anyone with any interest (from either side of the debate) in the feasibility of replacing fossil fuel sources.
They guy is a good presenter, and is pro-renewables & conservation, but also “believes in math”. I like him, because he is looking at the real world, wants to solve the problem, but doesn’t believe unicorn tears will make the math better.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E0W1ZZYIV8o
Unfortunately, the vast majority of people on our planet involved in this topic simply shout at each other (mostly online), protest building anything, and solve nothing.
—
Did i not posted that video few weeks back?
Cancer took that dude out, some time ago, now that he is gone its only climate change dogma left that only tax will save planet…
I wonder how much it cost to heat hes house.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pxq4PmFV6yg
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-crypto-exchange-quadriga-files-for-creditor-protection/
paywall, but “investors who still have money locked up in their Quadriga trading accounts won’t be able to regain all of their funds. ”
win some, lose alot.
Bitcoin risks continue… https://www.quadrigacx.com
Site Message available now.
#54 akashic record on 01.31.19 at 7:28 pm
All the Flop related…
I am not interested in real estate to check prices, but it seems insane that a single individual, on the blog of an other single individual, in their own time provide this information, in a G8 country, at the age of Big Data, AI, government and corporate mass surveillance.
There is a glimmer of hope, that the future will be survivable.
/////////////////////
I took this post as a compliment.
The boss of this blog and myself have some sort of mangled partnership.
I’ve said many a time, what I do here is not perfect but it’s better than nothing, which is what most people in Vancouver get.
I know people want the information, on my own blog Pink Snow, that only receives less than one percent of the traffic here, I just had 4300 visits for January from 12 different countries.
I have no need to grow it because there is no revenue tied to it as it is a tribute project to Boom.Everytime someone does something unsavoury on this blog in an attempt to stop the flow of information I remind myself that Boom was as much Garth’s friend as he was mine.
Only a small percentage of Greaterfool readers are interested in my posts, maybe 5% on a good day, but that means every 20th person has a read and is better informed because of my efforts.
Vancouver wants to think of its self as a global city when it really is a global village and some people view the place as boring.
That being said, for its status on the world stage Vancouver has one of the more exciting real estate markets with all the elements that have been mixed in the last decade or so.
I have also said on multiple occasions I am not the right person to be doing this, but after watching a heap of better qualified people stand around and complain about the unfairness of it all, I put on my hard hat, pulled out my jackhammer and started chipping away, the only way I know with my blue collar roots.
What am I carving?
It’s supposed to be a statue of Roy H.Stacey (Boom) that states underneath ” Here stands a statue of Boom, a fine man who helped out people on the Greaterfool blog and made a difference in the lives to people he never met.”
I don’t like it when people piss on this monument for no good reason except they can’t be bothered scrolling…
M44BC
M64WI
Apparently gas prices back east are under a dollar, yesterday in Okanagan they surged to $121.9.
I want to thank “for those about to flop” for the posts. I really enjoy them. I can see it takes lots of work, daily, to did that information up.
His posts are like the cherry on the cake, on an interesting board. It makes this board even more interesting.
Thank you…and please keep them coming.
The vote you make for a MP is for him or her to represent your concerns in Parliament. The one who is elected has a moral responsibility to his constituents alone above any party line with compromises on occasion. Those running for office today enter politics for the wrong reasons. They see it as a way to empower themselves to advance their own personal agenda and belief system. The concerns of the constituents who voted them into office is ignored, and this is what is taking place today.
A new gold rush in 2018. Wonder what that’s all about.
https://business.financialpost.com/commodities/mining/central-banks-gold-stocks-up
#143 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.01.19 at 9:54 am
—–
Boomers aren’t going to fall for that. They are stepping up to save Canada for generations to come by kicking socialism and Trudeaus gang of nitwits to the curb.
#124 Ace Goodheart…”Global warming! Tax home heating costs, gasoline, consumer goods, groceries, transportation.”
Yep difficult to tax global cooling……
Quick history lesson….
January 1888, Great Plains Kansas…temperature drops 100 degrees in 24 hours to -39 deg. More than 200 children froze to death in a blizzard on their way home from school. Over a 1000 people die in that cold snap.
Must have been all those SUV’s back then messing up climate patterns.
In today’s Facebook feed, can’t tell it from The Beaverton postings, sigh…
>>>>
Some people are celebrating that the TSX has increased 14 DAYS in a row…
Wealthy people are celebrating that the Real Estate market has increased 14 YEARS in a row…
<<<<
Coming to the GTA, apparently free tickets online or $147 at the door which is quite an upcharge…
Will leave the blog dogs find the location :-)
Great news from coast to coast (and beyond):
Source: https://business.financialpost.com/real … ing-prices
Let’s hope the worldwide contagion reaches every corner of our sleepy, zombiefied tundra.
“If you consider yourself a victim of some unseen force, you are in fact – a tool. You’re being played like a fiddle. Someone else put that idea into your head – and you’re the dork that picked it up and ran with it.”
Amen. Canada offers a ton of opportunity to those willing to take it. We don’t all get cheap homes in Kits or Oakville and thats ok. The last 15 years have seen almost unlimited opportunity, those that spend time here complaining that the man has them down are indeed tools
#2 For those about to flop… on 01.31.19 at 4:31 pm
Recent sale report.
Just as a follow up to my Race to a million, Richmond edition post I might as well show you guys what happened to this one as they were asking over a million and it went below.
The details…
3539 Bearcroft Dr,Richmond
Just sold for 988k
Asking 1.1
Assessment 1.02
So it went for 112k below what they would like you to believe it went for.
Not an outstanding structure but another detached in Richmond on the books for less than a million.
Dated, but definitely a respectable place to live for the new buyer.
Couldn’t see the Zolo listing so I will go with Bob Schmitz.
You know what they say, Bob Schmitz, he’s the…
M44BC
http://bobschmitz.net/mylistings.html/listing.r2324259-3539-bearcroft-drive-richmond-v6x-3b2.81372948
https://www.rew.ca/insights/399997/3539-bearcroft-drive-richmond-bc
=================
I can see the downward trend but it is still way overpriced. Houses this small must be selling at below $500k.
#118 Midnights on 02.01.19 at 3:40 am
Jordan Peterson on climate change…
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/climate/professor-jordan-on-climate-change-the-reality/
—
Jordan Peterson cuts through the bullshit, as usual.
One of the world-class Canadians.
Wow, what are you smoking. I want some. NDP will only win in Edmonton Area. Edmonton has 25% vote. NDP will win 50% seats in Edmonton area. Edmonton 25% seats (50%), Calgary 25% seats all UCP (0% NDP), Rural AB has 40% seats, all UCP (0% NDP), Red Deer, Grande Prairie, Fort Mac 10% seats (0% NDP). UCP will win > 80% seats in Alberta. Stamp it!
T2 re-elected Nutley re-elected, Horgun in power, Alberta becomes have not.
Payback soon from transfer payments.
“The New West”
@#95 Ustabe on 01.31.19 at 10:22 pm
_____
Folks like this are all over the place – and on both ends of the political spectrum.
I worked with a young millennial who was pretty hard left. The rest of the office is a mix of Classic Lib and Moderate/Hard right. When we all get going on about politics, it usually goes financial/economic – and solidly right wing on that end of things by all.
Buddy could not even stand to listen to it. We could see him sitting there squirming and grimacing. One day he just got up and walked out into the shop to escape.
Of course, the rest of us all noticed this and started experimenting to see how quick we could get him to run away. The younger guys here were especially effective in generating a hasty exit.
Buddy was 30 or so but still naive, completely unable to handle dissenting opinion, totally ruled by his emotions, and the worst part: thoroughly unable to hide it.
I like to think he learned a few things – specifically about tolerating folks who aren’t carbon copies of himself, and how his emotions should be managed by him – not the guy in the next cubicle.
I’d bet your biker buddy was just escaping too, fear seems like an odd explanation to me.
#144 Smoking Man on 02.01.19 at 10:00 am
”
In Canada T2 starts up the ministry of Truth.
Headed by people from the Toronto Star.
1984 is here.
https://www.blacklocks.ca/feds-to-hire-truth-monitors”
Friendly reminder to keep their own mouth shut, once they turned that on.
Nonplused etc.
Re monetary system.
The die were cast and fate sealed decades ago.
Given: “ALL WARS ARE BANKERS WARS”.
Germany was THE case study.
Germany was created in the late 1800’s,(Canada was a country even before Germany) previously it was a number of separate cantons who were amalgamated.
These cantons were competing economic units, to the point they charged tariffs. With UK and France as economic power houses in Europe, and given Europe had numerous wars and revolutions, these cantons united in a “sink or swim” mode ie could have been conquered…and also given a nation is defined by parties with same beliefs and goals.
Germany “unfortunately” became such an economic powerhouse within approx. 30 years that it upset the Brits who would not tolerate competition. Germany was producing better quality products and with cheaper prices, but the Brits apparently were not willing to “stoop” to this.
I highly recommend James Corbetts (3) part series on WW1…he outlines how Cecil Rhodes and Lord Milner were of the view it was literally Brits divine right to rule the world ….Germany could NOT be tolerated WW1 was planned long before it broke out.
Germany, a resource poor country, was blockaded by Brits, the goal was to bait Germany into war…much like Japan was in WW2(Pearl Harbour).
Post WW1, Germany entered into Weimar era….again based on Allied treachery .
THEN the German gov’t changed in early 1930’s….and Germany became literally the worlds leading economy whilst other nations were mired in depression. HOW?
Simple…Germany had no gold standard, so it monetized labour. People worked and were paid accordingly. Such a system lead to building of autobahn,(and later Volkswagen..people car) land reforms…built in perks to have families…home ownership…medicare..paid vacations…a long list .
Germany exported goods…often payment via a barter system.
Qaddafi’s Libya was along similar lines.
Duly note the US Federal Reserve was in place(1913) just before WW1, other wise the US could not “afford” war..aka no coincidence.
Unfortunately, the KEY to this successful economic model is nationalism and having a sovereign nation with its own culture…a unifying force.
After WW2 and millions slaughtered(as planned), the Banksters created UN aka One World Gov’t. We moved from Stalinesque brutality to Trotsky infiltration..ie traitors from within , with one of their agendas making absolutely sure no nation every achieves nationalism and homogeneous culture again..other wise they will call them “nazis” and “fascists” and have the Banksters sick the attack dog called USA., not to mention AGENDA 21, Climate Change…etc.
When Yugoslavia collapsed..the SERBS wanted their own nation, but UN would not allow it…look what happened.
The irony of WW2 was the the propaganda to fight “communism”, when FDR adminstration was infested with Trotskyesque communists..and the Tavistock institute, Frankfurt School, Fabian socialists etc.
General Patton realized he had been decieved, but was “accidented” before he could return to US.
The one world gov’t plan is simple… the banksters(aka THE ultimate communists) can keep the 1% richer and create more fiat currency as Trotskesque weaponization of “thin air”.
PS Hope that clears things up.
I can’t blame politicians for telling people what they want to hear, and promising what they can’t deliver, to get elected. It works! Because people are stupid, selfish, and apparently have no memories of what went before. We collectively get the politicians we collectively deserve. I despair.
I’ve more than once said that if the Cons want to get elected, they need to learn from the Liberals – again, tell people what they want to hear, and promise what you probably can’t deliver. And then do whatever you want until the last year of your mandate, and get busy buying people’s votes with their own money.
Anja Karadeglija, the editor of paywalled telecom news outlet the Wire Report, obtained documents this week highlighting how Bell had been pushing Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland for a VPN ban to be included in NAFTA negotiations. Why? It doesn’t want users using VPNs to watch the US Netflix catalog.
Countries already banning citizens to use VPN, though not for corporate content censorship: Russia, China, among others. Thank you Bell.
https://www.techdirt.com/articles/20190130/10141941498/canadas-bell-tried-to-have-vpns-banned-during-nafta-negotiations.shtml
#148 i.see.debt.people on 02.01.19 at 10:55 am
’nuff said:
https://business.financialpost.com/real-estate/toronto-new-home-sales-plunge-as-buyers-balk-at-spiraling-prices
==================================
On the bright side, this glut of condos purchased as investments should bring prices down, and also significantly increase the stock of rental condos, probably at prices below their carrying costs.
For Duke…that post was the sequel to this post, that I only posted on my blog,I hear what you are saying but I can only report what is currently happening, look at the size of this first home.
Have a good day, Flop…
////////////////////
Race to a million. Richmond edition.
Could have Larry Lowball on the books but this is the latest one out in Richmond that I am keeping tabs on.
The details…
8971 Wagner Dr, Richmond.
Asking 998k
Assessment 1.35 down from 1.47
https://www.zolo.ca/richmond-real-estate/8971-wagner-drive
Looks like a sprawling lot and REW states the current median list price for similar properties in the area is 1.85 so we’ll see what this approach nets them.
This one was built in 1976 and is a decent size house with a decent size block like I said, so what I also decided to do was nab another one in East Richmond that was built in 2006 and is on for 1.08 to see what this more modern one goes for.
The details…
22180 Sharpe Ave,Richmond.
Asking 1.08
Assessment 990k
So smaller home,smaller lot,more manageable for most folk.
The photo up top is of this place’s kitchen/ dining.
They want over assessment but at least the place looks Sharpe…
M44BC
https://www.zolo.ca/richmond-real-estate/22180-sharpe-avenue
Flop said “Only a small percentage of Greaterfool readers are interested in my posts, maybe 5% on a good day, but that means every 20th person has a read and is better informed because of my efforts.”
Flop, real estate is a big part of this blog and you provide very valuable and interesting real estate information.
You got your percentages backwards. I would say 99% enjoy reading your posts and 1% complain simply because they like to complain about things. Sheesh if they don’t want to read your posts can’t they just skip over them? Why do they need write in and complain about them? They are curmudgeons. Ignore them.
I really missed your posts these past few weeks. If I am in a rush I put the word “flop” into the Search command so I can quickly find your posts and read just them.
#154 IHCTD9 on 02.01.19 at 11:50 am
You might not want to place me at the controls of heavy iron. A small Case or Minnie Moline tractor pulling a hay rake is right up my alley.
For evidence, I’ll relay the story of my moving chipped sulphur in a front end loader. Blinded by the dust, I forgot to take my hand off the hydraulics, the bucket went all the way to the top and dumped its load on the brand new John Deere. Some sulphur went down the smokestack and blew back out. Molten. Then I was blinded and on fire. I bailed from the tractor and scrambled. Once I could see, there was the tractor climbing the pile of sulphur with the bucket as high as it could go. The hairstylist was mystified by the burnt hair riddled with yellow rock pellets of sulphur scattered through my curly locks. Coulda been worse. I did not lose my job.
DELETED (Excess posting)
#148 i.see.debt.people on 02.01.19 at 10:55 am
’nuff said:
https://business.financialpost.com/real-estate/toronto-new-home-sales-plunge-as-buyers-balk-at-spiraling-prices
==================================
On the bright side, this glut of condos purchased as investments should bring prices down, and also significantly increase the stock of rental condos, probably at prices below their carrying costs.
———————————————————-
I see opportunity for blood and carnage on the streets and who is swimming naked!
#155 NoName on 02.01.19 at 11:50 am
…
Did i not posted that video few weeks back?
Cancer took that dude out, some time ago, now that he is gone its only climate change dogma left that only tax will save planet…
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Hey, thanks for the update. I didn’t get the link from your post (don’t recall seeing it), it something that came up in my “recommended” area, but an interesting coincidence. Sorry to hear about the presenter’s passing – he was very articulate and I appreciated his focus on the real challenges.
#159 Barb on 02.01.19 at 12:04 pm
Apparently gas prices back east are under a dollar, yesterday in Okanagan they surged to $121.9.
_____
That’s highway robbery.
Gas prices here in semi-rural Ontario are ~.93, and ~.87 on the FNR’s.
#163 not 1st
you should really start producing some sources for the propositions you make. point us to the latest fox news, kock brothers, etc. sources you’re repeating about boomers and T2.
https://www.blacklocks.ca/feds-to-hire-truth-monitors/
The funniest thing I ever read:
“When you open up a newspaper, you have a sense this is coming from a journalist who’s professional, who has done their research, who has worked at it, and whose information is coming from a reliable source,” said Gould. “Of course, depending on which newspaper that is, you have a sense of where that information is coming from. When you go onto a social media platform and you see a meme or you see a story, if it’s being shared by a friend or a cousin or someone trusted, you may implicitly share that information because it’s coming from a trusted source.”
“The objective is to have civil society organizations in Canada who can help provide some of the civic awareness and education to evaluate news, digital media, etcetera, the information coming to Canadians, so they can make their informed choice of how they ingest this information, and how they share it or not,” said Gould.
Most of the ‘official’ sources including inflation statistics, Financial ‘news, BoC, CMHC etc, are pure fiction, very few of it qualifying as ‘science’ fiction.
The shepple is told what to believe in on daily basis.
Things must be really, really bad.
#159 Barb on 02.01.19 at 12:04 pm
Apparently gas prices back east are under a dollar, yesterday in Okanagan they surged to $121.9.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
The gas at my local Costco (in Ottawa) is 85 cents…
173 Lost…but not leased on 02.01.19
That there is no mention of the violent nature of nazi ideology in your post. There is also zero mention of the systematic enslaving and eventual murder of millions of individuals based on their race, religion and ethnicity.
It wasn’t German nationalism that was the problem, it was the fanatic nazism which sacrificed the lives of millions of Germans to do the bidding of a mad man that was.
Years later we fear all types of fanatics. That Was the legacy of the 20th century…
MF
#184 Godth on 02.01.19 at 2:15 pm
——-
I was wrong about climate change. Its super serious and dire. And the faster this happens the better.
https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/did-bill-nye-just-suggest-the-u-s-will-have-to-annex-canada-to-grow-crops
I write to thank the commenters here for posting links for videos of intelligent people speaking about climate change and why it should be a low priority. Brings balance to the debate. I’m trying to educate myself about energy transition, priorities, world problems and such. I think I’m changing my tune. Peterson, Lomborg etc. This somewhat stodgy boomer has a slightly open mind. Appreciated.
Anybody see the jobs report ?
The guy just gets it done . Hats off . 4 more years is a lock if the economy continues to cruise
Canada needs a Trump!
Alistair I never even mentioned Norway. Besides the fact the country is broke and it’s sovereign isn’t has no connection to what I was talking about
Truth monitors, should pres play.
Denzel Washington Blasts the Media on Dishonesty
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KrE1ZvldiFE
Alistair McLaughlin
…”Eradicating poverty in the U.S. would cost only $175 billion, according to economist Matt Bruenig’s calculations. That’s roughly a quarter of U.S. military spending. Winning the war on poverty would be a bargain compared to the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, which a Harvard study estimated have cost us a staggering $4–$6 trillion. As a matter of fact, all
the world’s developed countries had it within their means to wipe out poverty years ago.”
From: Utopia for Realists
========
gets house arrest community service hours and 200k to victims of crime
SNC lavalin
According to the agreed upon statement of facts, Duhaime did not know about or authorize the bribes.
Quebec’s anti-corruption squad arrested Duhaime in 2012 on 15 charges, including fraud, conspiracy and forgery. Fourteen of those charges were withdrawn Friday.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/snc-lavalin-ceo-guilty-fraud-pierre-duhaime-1.5001839
#188 not 1st – Sounds like a good excuse to take over our country, and the second one to look out for is their need for our water supply.
194 Good To Go on 02.01.19 at 4:12 pm
#188 not 1st – Sounds like a good excuse to take over our country, and the second one to look out for is their need for our water supply.
———————————————————————————————
Sometimes I think the only reason we can sleep next to a giant is we are developing all the services that they will need when the time comes. Like a savings account for a rainy day.
Don’t worry about interest rates,there going back to a big fat zero.Qe coming ,debt to high so the normalizing of interest rates is just a charade.Just look at Japan and you will know why.If your debt is unmanageable just declare bankruptcy.
Statistics and graphs are very deceptive. I just checked age stats from stats Canada, and Alberta is the province with the lowest percent age over 65 (other than the northern territories). And the graph Garth presented is of average household debt “including debt free households”. Well it’s a no brainer younger working age populations have more debt than older, retired, house is paid off populations. So take that graph with a grain of salt!
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/91-215-x/2012000/t583-eng.htm
#116 nonplused
I always like your comments, and often I skip others just to reach your thinking out loud intellectual rambling.
Printing money to fund productive government initiatives is probably good economic sense if those initiatives reduce inflation according to the basket of goods the CPI uses to measure inflation, as printing money is inflationary. So if those nuclear reactors drive down price of power, maybe it would be good, while cost of other household expenses would increase due to the money printing…
why does anyone live in such a cold place like alberta? i know ontario has recently experienced poor january weather, but honestly, if you have a million dollar home in anywhere in southern ontario or greater vancouver, man
i would be on a plane to mexico or cuba for the rest of my life. so you work hard all your life, sacrafice you finally get your place paid for then you what ? die, give it to the kids, when does the fun start? you might as be poor as my native friends, they own nothing never will, long story about that , but in the end you die, your kids dont give you kudo’s for leaving them anything, kinda like a birthright, and they live their lives.
on superbowl weekend eat all the chilli and chicken wings you can ,thats the key.
i am amazed at the drug use in western canada, everyone uses it, i was in a weed shop in saskatchewan the other day, first time, i thought i would check it out since its legal.
regular lady buying weed for the weekend? who would spend money on this stuff? western canadians are about big trucks with nothing in the back, and drug use. and eating out, no one cooks at home. and they are all overweight, not too many go to the gym, i know its hard when its minus 25.
you can live like a king 6 months less a day in cuba or mexico and come back here, you dont have to be rich , a crazy number of poor quebecors are in hollywood florida right now, you think they care about alberta? politics in alberta? man the cheque is for sure from the governement and the weather is fine in florida.
man some people just dont get it