The longs & the shorts

 

Apparently a lot of people think Canadian real estate will collapse. When she blows, they believe, it’ll be an event similar to the US housing bust. Swept away, or grievously wounded, will be banks, credit unions and half of Bay Street.

This is based on real, and scary, facts. Households owe more than $2 trillion, about 70% of which is mortgages. That’s a record. Over $100 billion in HELOCs are not being repaid. Wages are less than inflation, making cash flow difficult. Four in ten say they’re struggling to pay monthly bills. Almost half are two hundred bucks from insolvency at any one time. Blah, blah, blah. You’ve read this stuff here routinely. It’s rooted in surveys, polls, reports and government stats. Most of it is doubtlessly true.

The conclusion then is that huge numbers of delusional Canadians have overreached to buy inflated real estate. They have unrepayable debt. They also have little in the way of savings, cash or investments. In other words, in an economic downturn or a time of job loss and spiking rates, they’d be seriously pooched. Many would default on mortgages they cannot service. Lenders would be stiffed. Because Canada’s major banks have massive mortgage portfolios, the system would be rocked. Some might fail.

After all, isn’t that why the last few federal budgets have contained bank bail-in legislation, which is now being enacted? Why would Ottawa go to the trouble of creating such a safeguard if the potential of a bank collapse were zero?

As stated, lots of people are betting it happens, and putting real money on the table as a result. A reminder of that came while reading a recent Motley Fool report on shorting the banks. Investors have just shorted TD shares to the tune of $3.5 billion, and Scotiabank for almost $3 billion. Going short is the opposite of going long (when you buy a stock because you think its price will increase). Investors who believe the opposite borrow and sell shares, figuring they can buy them later for a cheaper price, return them to the lender and pocket the difference. Yes, that sounds dangerous. It is. If prices increase, the shorts are screwed. If prices fall, they gamble and win.

Remember ‘The Big Short’? Lots of people do. Those who saw the American housing crash coming cleaned up using a similar theory and made fortunes. Now that real estate sentiment has turned negative in the land of house-horny and debt-infused beavers, an army of people are betting the banks will be in trouble – or at least suffer a run on their equity.

But I’m not one of them.

First, real estate is not collapsing. It’s correcting. I’m sticking with my long-held (and so far accurate) prediction that a 10-15% plop in prices in major markets would be followed by a years-long slow price melt. Second, house prices outside of the GTA and moronic patches in BC have never been in a bubble, and are not subject to a bust. It’s still cheap to live in Halifax, Winnipeg, Montreal or Windsor. Third, this is exactly why the banks are protected by CMHC insurance for large swaths of their home loan portfolios. It’s also why the stress test was enacted – to ensure lenders can withstand rising rates. Fourth, the bankers have had more than a decade to get ready for a Canadian crash. Capital reserves have been increased, borrowing requirements tightened and our banks have pushed hard into other areas – several are now major US players.

Besides, they’re massively profitable. RBC alone made more than $1 billion per month last year. That’s over $50 million each business day. Almost as much as a blog! No wonder financial outfits account for more than a third of the entire Canadian stock market. And each of the banks have steadily increased their dividends, so investors have seen capital growth as well as tax-efficient income. TD’s dividend growth, for example, has jumped 11% annually over twenty years.

As for stock prices, look at the 10-year track record for the Royal (click to enlarge):

But how did the banks do in 2008-9? Not so hot. Sometimes in a crisis all asset classes are dumped. RBC stock which was about $60 in 2007 tumbled to $30 in 2009. But even in the darkest hour, no Canadian bank missed or cut a dividend payment. Investors who saw intrinsic value and went long have scored. In fact, every time bank shares have dipped, it’s turned into a buying opportunity. And 2019 is not 2008.

So what if I’m wrong and Vancouver house prices crash by 70% (as happened in Phoenix), leading to mass defaults, foreclosures and losses to lenders? Well, you might regret owning a hunk of Vancity or Coast Capital, but not BeeMo or CIBC. Share prices of the Big Five might well decline in a real estate-induced recession, but the shorters’ euphoria would be brief. If history’s any guide, it would be time to take money out of the bank, and buy the bank.

Having said that, no crash. Go long or go home.

 

179 comments ↓

#1 JSS on 01.29.19 at 4:48 pm

CN Rail – 18% dividend increase

Rub tummy

#2 Esther Faust on 01.29.19 at 4:53 pm

Banks are being heavily shorted right now. Great time to sell and take profits, then re-invest in a month or two or six at a great discount.

Why would prices tumble? – Garth

#3 Dave on 01.29.19 at 4:55 pm

DELETED

#4 not 1st on 01.29.19 at 5:06 pm

#164 Godth on 01.29.19 at 4:33 pm
—-

Refute the climate narrative if you have it cased. Where is the hockey stick increase. Sea levels up mere mm, temp increased 0.3 deg C in 20 yrs since the IPCC report. Why does Saint Suzuki have land on Quadra if the whole place is going underwater. Leo the chinook whisperer bought a place on the beach in Malibu.

You have no clue. You are just a slave to your govt who apparently told somebody else will pay you for whatever whacko idea you can come up with. Its all a front for more socialism.

#5 Leo Trollstoy on 01.29.19 at 5:15 pm

Nobody ever said a wall along the southern US border was the only solution

The MSM will never report that Mark Morgan, President Obama’s Border Patrol chief, said that he agrees with Trump’s plan to construct a wall along the southern border

https://thepoliticalinsider.com/obama-border-chief-defends-trump-mark-morgan/

#6 marcus on 01.29.19 at 5:18 pm

No crash in Canada because it is a Marxist Socialist System. You lose some of your money but ALL of your freedom. In America you lose lots of your money if you are stupid but are more free to try again. I prefer the ability to try again and match my wits against the rest of the population. In Canada the safety net breeds complacency and slave mentality.

#7 Mike on 01.29.19 at 5:26 pm

What crash, and what HELOCs crisis??
Not in Canada, ever.

Todays news: TD doubles down on HELOCs

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/td-taps-helocs-to-regain-clients-in-undisputed-leadership-push-1.1205573

#8 Bobby Bittman on 01.29.19 at 5:29 pm

So let’s see….

Markets up. Corporate profits up. Bank profits up. Employment up. Prices up.

Just one thing down. Inflation adjusted wages. I’m struggling real hard to figure out why wages are so “stubborn” LOL

#9 david on 01.29.19 at 5:34 pm

….because bail in is an international initiative and Canada is part of the large group of countries taking the same initiative due to the GFC…huh?

#10 Ace Goodheart on 01.29.19 at 5:34 pm

RE: #1 JSS on 01.29.19 at 4:48 pm
“CN Rail – 18% dividend increase

Rub tummy”

This is an easy stock. Buy the dips (the bigger, the better) and get in on the ground floor with the dividends. Then you just wait. The div’s go up, predictably, as does the share price. I have been buying this stock for years, and it is one of the most reliable out there.

Toronto RE: Odd situation. There are almost no houses for sale. What is on the market is almost all garbage. And horribly over priced for what you get.

Where are all the hipster havens? Weirdo houses with odd renos and door-less bathrooms? No one has figured out how to make a piece of garbage found on some street corner into a bedroom door, for a while now? No one has re-purposed an old something or other as a kitchen counter top? I am almost getting bored looking at these listings.

Where are all the hipsters and their weird house re-dos?

No more High park “Victorian wonderlands” with their freezing cold exposed double brick outside walls? No one has decided that 100 year old hardwood covered in pock marks and holes is “too beautiful” to cover up with something else?

Where are all the houses?

#11 TurnerNation on 01.29.19 at 5:34 pm

Abound, Millionaires, abound.

http://torontostoreys.com/2019/01/this-is-how-much-it-costs-to-live-next-to-every-ttc-subway-stop/

#12 Winterpeg on 01.29.19 at 5:40 pm

No shorts in Winterpeg today. -49 windchill factor

#13 Terry on 01.29.19 at 5:45 pm

“First, real estate is not collapsing. It’s correcting. I’m sticking with my long-held (and so far accurate) prediction that a 10-15% plop in prices in major markets would be followed by a years-long slow price melt.”

A slow long uneven melt in Canadian housing prices is the logical and the most likely outcome. Canada is not the USA or Australia. We have our own problems here but shorting the Canadian banks is not a safe bet in my opinion. In fact……it’s just a 100% gamble. Great article today Garth!

#14 Stan Brooks on 01.29.19 at 5:46 pm

Nice speech to boost the morale, but unfortunately (with all due respect) you overestimate the agility of this sheeple. It is crippled, done, over, kaput.

There are many other places to invest in, that are not based on skinning the already over-indebted consumers while enjoying government ‘guarantees’/’insurance’ (or at least their sheeple has much more skin and milk left).

Japan crashed with much stronger exporting economy, but we won’t because we are special and we belive that we can defy the law of economics?

The debt has sucked the life out of a few generations, I don’t think there is anything more to milk from this dead cow.

Not sure about the rest but I am on Jack Daniels today. Not doing pot.

I think I am starting to get bored from this political correctness and lack of imagination, who could really come up with this line:

We are up to the eyeball in crap but things are going to be OK this time, trust me?

Sure. I mean, what can I say?

Things must be really bad to have all prominent figures in finance mobilized to assure everyone that everything is just fine.

This is when it hits the fan and you hide/run/take cover.

#15 The Wet One on 01.29.19 at 5:51 pm

Yep.

Pretty much that.

#16 Catalyst on 01.29.19 at 5:54 pm

Cdn banks have basically gone no where since 2011 as investments compared to the applr and Google’s of the world. They get constant multiple compression and inaccurate analyst coverage from dumb American analysts. I dont see that changing.

#17 Victoria Real Estate Update on 01.29.19 at 5:56 pm

You won’t get much of an argument out of many Americans if you tell them that San Francisco is once again in a housing bubble.

That city’s house price run-up has been nothing less than spectacular. Prices there have more than doubled since 2000 (2.6 times higher). (Case-Shiller Index).

Winnipeg isn’t San Francisco – much smaller, not a port city, extreme cold…

If house prices in bubbly San Francisco are 2.6 times higher than in 2000 and tiny, freezing, isolated Winnipeg never had a housing bubble, Teranet’s index should show that Winnipeg’s housing price gains have been significantly smaller than San Francisco’s since 2000.

Unfortunately for Winnipeggers, Teranet’s numbers show that their city’s housing price run-up since 2000 can’t be classified as anything less than extreme.

Teranet’s index shows that house prices in Winnipeg have more than tripled since 2000 (3.25 times), which is significantly more extreme than San Francisco’s price run-up (2.6 times).

The knee-jerk (unsupported) reaction from some realtors would be to present the (unsupported) argument that income gains have tracked housing price gains in Winnipeg since 2000, but that of course is completely false. Incomes have barely moved in comparison to housing price gains in Winnipeg since 2000.

There is no fact-based argument to support the claim that Winnipeg has no housing bubble.

#18 AGuyInVancouver on 01.29.19 at 5:58 pm

… Fourth, the bankers have had more than a decade to get ready for a Canadian crash. Capital reserves have been increased, borrowing requirements tightened and our banks have pushed hard into other areas – several are now major US players…
_ _ _
That’s nice, but what about the massive increase in shadow lenders? Nobody is forcing them to increase their reserves. Also, Canada’s big banks do well because the government protects them by insuring their riskiest customers through CMHC, why is government intervention not “bad” in that case?

#19 Stan Brooks on 01.29.19 at 6:01 pm

It’s still cheap to live in Halifax, Winnipeg, Montreal or Windsor.

Sure. When compared to Mayfair and Champs Elysees.

——————————————–

#7 Mike on 01.29.19 at 5:26 pm

Why would people need more HELOC when they are well off and economy is just fine?

Because it is not. There is no disposable income to support insane valuations and profits. Debts was filling the gap temporarily. Now it is over.

Massive decline of the whole economy, except the resource sector and some REITs is a given.
US was in much better shape in 2008 when it crashed as compared to us, now.

#20 Godth on 01.29.19 at 6:05 pm

#4 not 1st
tfg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wvVPdyYeaQU

#21 Stone on 01.29.19 at 6:06 pm

This is based on real, and scary, facts. Households owe more than $2 trillion, about 70% of which is mortgages. That’s a record. Over $100 billion in HELOCs are not being repaid. Wages are less than inflation, making cash flow difficult. Four in ten say they’re struggling to pay monthly bills. Almost half are two hundred bucks from insolvency at any one time. Blah, blah, blah. You’ve read this stuff here routinely. It’s rooted in surveys, polls, reports and government stats. Most of it is doubtlessly true.

———

Is it possible that all those real and scary facts are just a lie? Repeated over and over again until the lie becomes the truth?

If any of it were true, shouldn’t Canada just be one big radioactive crater?

I’m waiting. Anybody?

#22 not 1st on 01.29.19 at 6:12 pm

Canadas banks are different in that they all have US operations so are pretty diversified into a larger market. Secondly, you cant escape your mortgage in Canada even if you walk away. Bank will get your lower value house, sell it and still get your payment from you or hound you forever. How can they lose?

People will be renting and still paying a mortgage and you will be trapped in Canada by Trudeau. No escape if you have debt or all your assets in maple. Canada is a prison nation without bars or walls.

#23 The real Kip (Ret) on 01.29.19 at 6:15 pm

They’re shorting us again? Wow. When will they learn; never bet against Canada!

You are correct Garth, Canadian housing will not crash as long as Canadians are working, and they are. The other thing that happened in the US in 2008 was 8-million Americans lost their jobs. It didn’t matter how cheap US housing got, they were defaulting no matter what and that’s not happening here.

Ah, US unemployment surged after the housing collapse. Did not cause it. – Garth

#24 WelcometoSlurrey on 01.29.19 at 6:17 pm

I’m sticking with my long-held (and so far accurate) prediction that a 10-15% plop in prices in major markets would be followed by a years-long slow price melt………….

GT your “accurate” prediction was made more than 5 years ago, when prices were less than half of where they are ( at least in the YVR) ………. sorry GT, i think your financial advice is great and should be followed, but a total miss on the real estate for the lower mainlanders, a 15% correction + slow melt is gonna take lower mainland BC back to 2015 -> nothing to get excited about here, since that would be going from extremely unaffordable to still extremely unaffordable ……..

#25 Investx on 01.29.19 at 6:22 pm

With the banks’ resiliency during bad times, capital and dividend appreciation potential, why buy anything else? Why “diversify” in other less performing assets?

#26 bellend on 01.29.19 at 6:23 pm

DSIB=TBTF prolly leads to CA QE when / if TSHTF.
cheerfully sponsored and posted by Acronymsrus

#27 paracho on 01.29.19 at 6:26 pm

I agree with Garth . Not sucking up . Just think it is very reasonable and rational that we are having a decline and melt versus a full blown real estate crash ..
Our Canadian Banks differ from pre 2008 US banks . We always had better regulations and our regulations just keep unroving and will continue to improve . Private lenders will be the next segment regulated in my humble opinion . This will help keep house horny overindebted individuals from digging a deeper hole .
I am a share holder of the big 5 individually in my RRSP , TFSA and non registered accounts since the late 90s. Both directly and now via ETFs.

#28 Deplorable Dude on 01.29.19 at 6:36 pm

Its cheap to live in Winnipeg because it’s currently colder than Antartica…literally. Bet those folks are really enjoying paying their carbon tax right about now.

#29 Sail away on 01.29.19 at 6:42 pm

Canadian bank shorting has all happened before. In December 2016 TD was shorted to the tune of $5.6B and Scotia to $2.9B. And nothing happened. Shorters think the US 2008 pattern is repeating, but it’s not, for all the reasons Garth mentions. There are definitely other areas worth shorting- generally, anywhere government decides to meddle with private business is a good place to start.

#30 HE Money Laundering Machine in BC on 01.29.19 at 6:48 pm

Rule #1 in laundering money: always be highly efficient.

As a high efficient money laundering machine I only accept 20, 50 and 100 dollar bills. The quick wash cycle is to go through the casino. The normal wash with extra rinse is to purchase BC real estate then wire the money offshore.

I love BC real estate and the banks who love it just as much as me. We have a good working relationship and appreciate backing from CMHC.

#31 akashic record on 01.29.19 at 6:49 pm

RBC stock which was about $60 in 2007 tumbled to $30 in 2009.

That was awesome.
Followed by purchasing a house in Toronto in 2000.
Then BTC going from sub-$1K to $17K in no time.

Missed out weed stocks, though.

“And 2019 is not 2008.”
But eventually, counting on mindless debt printing.
Just have to be patient. Keeping HELOC ready.

Who knows, may even win the jackpot.

#32 mj on 01.29.19 at 6:52 pm

thank you for the post today. I bought LB last week because it has a 6 percent divided. I wasn’t sure, but you helped reassure me. Thank you

#33 Penny Henny on 01.29.19 at 6:55 pm

140 Howard on 01.29.19 at 1:26 pm
#122 Penny Henny on 01.29.19 at 11:24 am
#50 Not so sure on 01.28.19 at 7:34 pm
#36 My dad is 75 and is worth several ill gotten real estate millions. He has re, cash and investments and still defers the tax because he cannot afford it. It’s hilarious.
///////////////////////

You Dad sounds smart deferring the tax. You? Not so sure.

———————————————

Way to miss the point. Try again?
///////////////////////

Sure Howard let me try?

Dad pays 1% per year to defer his property taxes.
He then invests this deferred tax an get gets an average return of 6%.
The 1% paid is less than the rate of inflation.

Dad is smart and yes I did miss the point obviously, care to fill me in?

#34 Bill Monreau on 01.29.19 at 6:55 pm

I am not stress testing private lenders.

The private lenders are the fall people for everyone to blame when this thing goes down.

We have way to many people who need to roll over unsustainable debt right now, pay day loans, you name it to keep things going.

So, I repeat, I am not bringing in any stress testing to private lending.

Are studies are focusing more on 100 year amortization right now to help out the millennial group and win the next election. We hope to bring the average cost of a house in Canada to 4m dollars within 10 years.

#35 RWZM on 01.29.19 at 6:58 pm

“I’m sticking with my long-held (and so far accurate) prediction that a 10-15% plop in prices”

Long-held since when? And what was the… average price at the date when this prediction was first held, as compared to today?

Predictions, oddly, involve the future. Deal with it. – Garth

#36 acdel on 01.29.19 at 7:07 pm

A bit off topic but not really; this province has made a huge difference in Canada, from real-estate, banking etc.

Excellent article https://business.financialpost.com/opinion/jack-mintz-canadians-have-taken-alberta-for-granted-thats-dangerous-for-us-all

#37 When the Bell Tolls For Thee on 01.29.19 at 7:13 pm

The banks will start getting nervous after 3 late/or missed payments. Expect swift action this spring. Lots and lots of loans getting called soon. Good time to get into the auto repo business. Listings are about to go through the roof in many markets across the country…

#38 young & foolish on 01.29.19 at 7:15 pm

What about the increasing adoption of fin tech ???

#39 Slurrey on 01.29.19 at 7:15 pm

GT and everyone else has underestimated the underground banking systems in BC. Headquartered in Richmond, BC. It makes economic logic look silly. It is crooked. 2 millions dollars for a box built in 1980? Give your head a shake people. Probably the best gauge of how crooked this country is.

800 billions dollars in drug money later now they know what we are talking about. The moment this growing industry freezes will be the Minsky moment in Vancouver real estate. In fact, a lot of the slow down recently is directly related to the provincial governments light touch crack down. The light touch approach being taken right now stems from risk and playing catch up in getting a grip on how deeply embedded this is in the economy. And boy is it deeply embedded.

Why do you think the spec tax with punitive measures in filling it out and getting it back to the government is being carried out? This is the single greatest survey of BC housing ever and within months will enable to government to know where we are at in BC.

Just in time for the Liberals to get back in power and bury such information as deep as possible to never speak of again and make money laundering great…again. Too many people and too much greed to shut this down. Everyone is in on it. If you are complaining about it, you are one of the have nots.

______________________________________________

#40 acdel on 01.29.19 at 7:29 pm

If this is for real then this is where to invest in the future; scary but mesmerizing!

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-6645967/Dali-Museum-unveil-AI-clone-late-artist-begin-greeting-visitors-spring.html

#41 I love the carbon tax ... on 01.29.19 at 7:30 pm

When I can spend a day like today, outside happily working on the house in just a shirt surrounded by flowering daffodils in January it’s worth every cent. Why didn’t they think of this sooner?

#42 PastThePeak on 01.29.19 at 7:31 pm

There is lots of room between the Big 5 going out of business (not going to happen of course), and a sizeable correction in the TSX in an RE downturn that shaves 30% off the banks, and nets the shorts a great return. Hell, the banks were about 10% lower just over a month ago.

I’ve only invested – not played the stock market – and wouldn’t want to gamble on shorting. But that doesn’t mean I think the TSX has anything going for it. I had been overweight this in the past (my bad), but no longer.

What are possible catalysts for TSX to move (much) higher from here, before an inevitable recession? Slowing global growth, ever more rickety consumer debt, huge gov’t interference in some largest industries, increasing taxes, and heaps of scorn from China and the Orange Guy. Liberals are likely to win next election, and we haven’t had such a business unfriendly govt since T1.

I will buy some CAD blue chips (those with solid records of increasing dividends, with good yields) on the big dips – companies with significant US/Int exposure like big 5, CNR, Brookfield, etc. Already bought oil/pipelines on the dips last year. But buy the TSX in general? – had enough of that.

#43 Dolce Vita on 01.29.19 at 7:33 pm

The Canadian Consumer decides, not you Garth nor market gamblers nor wishful thinkers nor doom & gloom statistical surveys.

Consumer spending is 58% of GDP.

The Canadian Consumers’ spending is FALLING FAST.

Hope that it is a 2011-13 style perturbation and not like the “other one” 4 years earlier:

https://i.imgur.com/YskZ9bo.jpg

#44 Dolce Vita on 01.29.19 at 7:39 pm

You and this “slow melt” jingoism.

Just HOW MANY YEARS constitutes a slow melt in the World of Garth?

Inquiring minds would like to know.

So would Mother Nature as her idea of a slow melt, in most parts of Canada, is about 2 months.

#45 tccontrarian on 01.29.19 at 7:45 pm

“First, real estate is not collapsing. It’s correcting. I’m sticking with my long-held (and so far accurate) prediction that a 10-15% plop in prices in major markets would be followed by a years-long slow price melt.” GT
———

I’m confused! The way I understand/interpret terms, a ‘correction’ implies that the main trend will re-assert (after a brief reversal of said trend). But as you’re also forecasting a ‘years-long slow melt”, it can no longer be considered a mere ‘correction’!

In market lingo what you’re actually saying that the bull-market is over and a bear market has begun. The only question is the form the bear takes – ie. will it be sudden and steep, or the gradual ‘melt’ as you like to use.

Am I missing your point, or is it just a problem of semantics?

TCC

#46 Blacksheep on 01.29.19 at 7:46 pm

Slurrey #39,

“Just in time for the Liberals to get back in power and bury such information as deep as possible to never speak of again and make money laundering great…again.”

“Too many people and too much greed to shut this down. Everyone is in on it.”

“If you are complaining about it, you are one of the have nots.”
—————————
Xactly, that’s why it’s called a growth industry : )

#47 saskatoon on 01.29.19 at 8:06 pm

canadian banks ARE the government.

betting against them (unfortunately) is akin to wagering against the coercive (and immoral) power of taxation.

#48 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.29.19 at 8:07 pm

@#37 When the bell tolls
” Good time to get into the auto repo business….”
*****

I’m not so sure.
All indications are….New and Used cars sales have fallen off a cliff since the beginning of Dec…….
Who’s gonna buy your repo?

Any anonymous car salesmen care to jump in?

#49 will on 01.29.19 at 8:12 pm

“bank bail-in legislation, which is now being enacted”

how is it being enacted? do you mean it is being exercised? maybe i don’t know the meaning of enacted

i am long FC.

#50 mathman on 01.29.19 at 8:13 pm

I respectfully disagree with our host for a number of reasons. My thoughts are a major leg down then potentially a decade long melt.

The inventory has been sucked up by Heloc’s for years and this has worked because equity was appearing magically each year. Everyone and their mother in the GTA is a landlord, it has become a badge of honour for the working man in the GTA to say they own an investment property. Take this trade away and people will have to come up with cash they don’t have for downpayment = the investment property game, flipping – insert various other activities – dies.

What we will find is that alt lending is far larger than anyone realizes – that people took financing wherever they could get it at multiple of market interest rates and eventually get burned. The knock on effects of the slow down exacerbate the down move – anyone tied to RE feels a pinch, consumer spending takes a dive and layoffs begin slowly than accelerate.

Nothing is moving $2 Million + – which means the smart money already owns and or those that can afford are sitting and waiting for blood in the water. The stupid money is still overpaying for condos and shitty semi’s – which is late cycle behaviour.

Pretending to be wealthy is the new national sport of this country.

On paper only the 1% can service a million dollar mortgage – guess how many $1 mil + mortgages there are in the GTA – fun Math.

Stay Liquid

#51 Pete on 01.29.19 at 8:23 pm

There’s way too many strikes against Canada to hope for a soft landing (real estate or otherwise). Too much of the economy hedged against real estate growth. High cost of doing business in Ontario (loss of manufacturing). Insanely high debt load. Banking industry bleeding its customers dry for short-term profits. Government overspending. Government driving high income earners to leave. etc.

It’s not going to be pretty…

#52 Xpat on 01.29.19 at 8:26 pm

#42 PastThePeak on 01.29.19 at 7:31 pm
But buy the TSX in general? – had enough of that.

Probably means we should buy it.

#53 acdel on 01.29.19 at 8:34 pm

Wow! ?? Based out of England..

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-6645849/Mortgages-youre-85-None-existed-five-years-ago-1000.html

#54 PBrasseur on 01.29.19 at 8:44 pm

I would short Canada, but it’s a long term play.

Best is not to short, just invest somewhere else that’s all.

This socialist country is screwed for a good long while.

#55 not 1st on 01.29.19 at 8:45 pm

Only a matter of time before one of Canadas premier companies is gone.

https://calgaryherald.com/business/energy/transcanada-hires-rbc-to-help-sell-up-to-75-stake-in-coastal-gaslink-pipeline

Thanks commie Horgan, Trudeau and millennial fools. You made Canada poorer now you can own it. Hope you enjoy tax enslavement.

#56 AGuyInVancouver on 01.29.19 at 9:00 pm

#44 Dolce Vita on 01.29.19 at 7:39 pm
You and this “slow melt” jingoism.

Just HOW MANY YEARS constitutes a slow melt in the World of Garth?

Inquiring minds would like to know.

So would Mother Nature as her idea of a slow melt, in most parts of Canada, is about 2 months.
_ _ _
Good the Toronto Housing Crash in 1989. 13 years for RE to get back to its previous level in real dollar terms.

#57 HowDeepThePain on 01.29.19 at 9:03 pm

“Secondly, you cant escape your mortgage in Canada even if you walk away. Bank will get your lower value house, sell it and still get your payment from you or hound you forever. How can they lose?”

Bankruptcy, homeowners can walk away in Bankruptcy.
Right now homeowners are draining investments to make ends meet. Credit cards are maxed.
Bankruptcy is the next step.

#58 Barb on 01.29.19 at 9:06 pm

Curious why the bank legislation is “bail-in”.

And Bombardier is “bail out”.

Merely semantics?

#59 Midnights on 01.29.19 at 9:21 pm

Global Warming, Carbon Taxes lmbo…

#60 Steve French on 01.29.19 at 9:28 pm

Yo Smoking Man:

Enough about Trump.

What’s your take on the Chinese Communist Party?

French.

#61 Bottoms_Up on 01.29.19 at 9:28 pm

#4 not 1st on 01.29.19 at 5:06 pm
—————————-
You climate change deniers are too funny.

Record droughts in Cali. Category 5 hurricanes in Florida. Tornados in Havana. Record rainstorms in Canada. Thundersnow. Coldest snowstorm on record. Polar vortexes.

Tell me–which decade has the warmest years on record?

#62 dakkie on 01.29.19 at 9:31 pm

Trending Toward Zero: Home Price Growth Slumps to 4-Year Low

https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/trending-toward-zero-home-price-growth-slumps-to-4-year-low/

#63 Shawn Allen on 01.29.19 at 9:38 pm

Canadian median wages in 2017

From statistics Canada

Something to make most of you feel good… Fodder for doomers too. Enjoy.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/190129/dq190129e-eng.htm?CMP=mstatcan

#64 rknusa on 01.29.19 at 9:40 pm

Second, house prices outside of the GTA and moronic re “patches in BC have never been in a bubble, and are not subject to a bust. It’s still cheap to live in Halifax, Winnipeg, Montreal or Windsor.”

pretty much the whole country went house horny

prices in Windsor are up almost 50% in two years, what no bubble there – no FOMO, right, Montreal is going crazy, Halifax has already burned itself out with high prices just waitng to collapse – puhleeeze

prices in rural Ontario 100’s of miles from TO are still ridiculous, yup no bubble here just good ole fashioned value for the money

#65 Ace Goodheart on 01.29.19 at 9:42 pm

No reason to fear any sudden collapse in Canadian housing. Soon we’ll all be paying much much more to heat our houses and put gas in our cars. The days of living in a house with heat in the winter and driving cars with motors are coming to a close.

You See, it’s getting warmer….well, everywhere else anyway. Yeah here it’s bloody freezing and we’re engulfed in snow and double digit negative temps. But the rest of the world is heating up alarmingly. Which means we have to stop burning stuff for heat.

Why just the other day in Greenland some one saw a river. The conclusion is the entire island is melting.

So Canadians have to live out doors when it’s minus 28 and we all have to buy and drive $70,000 teslas that lose 3/4 of their range in minis 20 degree weather.

Because it’s not getting warmer here folks. It’s the Younger Dryas here. It’s the next ice age. Polar vortex my butt. I can hear the glaciers sliding down the street.

Give us our natural gas. And not out of T2’s pot head rear end. Enbridge type s%$t. I want to heat my house.

It’s bloody freezing.

Maybe warming is good. We sure need it here.

#66 WUL on 01.29.19 at 9:43 pm

Hey ON. Apologies from AB but it is outside of our control. We’re still kinda fond of ya.

The “Alberta Clipper”. Toronto Star:

“Sorry, Ontario. Why Alberta is to blame for wintry weather slamming the east”

#67 BS on 01.29.19 at 9:49 pm

Howard Schultz is ‘gift from God’ to Trump

https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2019/01/29/toobin-trump-howard-schultz-gift-from-god-tsr-vpx.cnn

LOL

#MAGA

#68 PastThePeak on 01.29.19 at 9:56 pm

#52 Xpat on 01.29.19 at 8:26 pm
#42 PastThePeak on 01.29.19 at 7:31 pm
But buy the TSX in general? – had enough of that.

Probably means we should buy it.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Let me know how that goes.

Nothing wrong with being contrarian in general (Buffet’s fearful/greedy rule), but there have to be some fundamentals too. I am not seeing the upside for Canadian companies at this stage of the game – perhaps you can elaborate on the positives you see.

After a good correction, get rid of the cruft – sure.

#69 creditunion on 01.29.19 at 10:02 pm

Just to clarify; Credit Unions are co-operatives. You can’t own Vancity or Coast (more than your one voting share per member), they don’t offer equity shares.

Some have ownership units, and all members are stakeholders. – Garth

#70 Doug in London on 01.29.19 at 10:27 pm

Wow, I’m glad I had the sense to scoop up XFN while it was on sale late last year. If the share prices of the Big Five decline in a real estate-induced recession, I’ll take the opportunity to scoop up even more.

#71 yorkville renter on 01.29.19 at 10:28 pm

#65 Ace… Maybe warming is good. We sure need it here

The lamest argument against climate change is the denial because there’s cold weather outside. Look at the overall average Earth temperature, which has steadily increased, for many many years.

It’s like deciding if someone permanently shit themselves because you walked by when they farted…

One week of cold doesn’t offset YEARS of increasing heat

#72 Bdwy sktn on 01.29.19 at 10:30 pm

65 ace
………………
Seems that all the globull warming is chilling out on the west coast right now. Grass is as green as it gets, wayward flowers and cherry blossoms making appearances. Best of all the sun is showing up daily. I may need to mow the lawn soon.

God bless gasoline.

#73 Russ on 01.29.19 at 10:54 pm

I love the carbon tax … on 01.29.19 at 7:30 pm

When I can spend a day like today, outside happily working on the house in just a shirt surrounded by flowering daffodils in January it’s worth every cent. Why didn’t they think of this sooner?
===========================

Hey Luv,

I’m guessing you’re in the Vancouver area.

It was nice t-shirt style pruning weather on the Island too. Only SPF 15 recommended today.

Not like it is for anyone who is beyond Hope.
https://www.westjet.com/en-ca/travel-info/advisories

… cue, global warming alarmist!

#74 Renter's Revenge! on 01.29.19 at 10:54 pm

#28 Deplorable Dude on 01.29.19 at 6:36 pm

Its cheap to live in Winnipeg because it’s currently colder than Antartica…literally. Bet those folks are really enjoying paying their carbon tax right about now.

====================================

That has everything to do with the fact that it’s summer in Antarctica right now, and nothing to do with the fact that it was -51 with the windchill in Winnipeg this morning :)

Also, Pallister is one of the few premiers in Canada with an actual spine (and brain). So there is no carbon tax in Manitoba… at least for now.

#75 Russ on 01.29.19 at 10:55 pm

creditunion on 01.29.19 at 10:02 pm

Just to clarify; Credit Unions are co-operatives. You can’t own Vancity or Coast (more than your one voting share per member), they don’t offer equity shares.

Some have ownership units, and all members are stakeholders. – Garth
========================

And the deposits are protected by the provincial government, up to the prudent amount.

#76 Kirk Acton on 01.29.19 at 11:00 pm

Winnipeg, Cold as Hell, but they got one Hellebuyck of a Hockey Team!

#77 Bottoms_Up on 01.29.19 at 11:36 pm

#28 Deplorable Dude on 01.29.19 at 6:36 pm
—————————–
A heat wave last summer killed almost 100 people in Quebec.

#78 islander on 01.29.19 at 11:42 pm

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/society/article/2158716/special-report-how-canadian-immigration-fraud-saw-860-rich-chinese

I believe the federal government and the former BC Liberal Party have facilitated immigration fraud.

Interesting to read about Martin Pilzmaker’s connection to the federal Liberals.
Xun (Sunny) Wang followed Martin Pilzmaker’s lead: passport fraud, Liberal party complicity,
money laundering…SCMP link above is worth a read.
Wang was sent to prison (seven years), for scams that had earned him C$10 million (US$7.6million). Paroled in late 2017, Wang served a third of his time.

The downside of immigration fraud is not just the loss of tax revenue, and the compromised integrity of Canadian residency and citizenship. Fake immigrants frequently do not report their actual income while taking full advantage of our social programmes and ‘playing’ our local real estate.
This has been going on in Canada for at least 30 years. Try to tell me the federal and provincial governments don’t have a clue!

#79 Stan Brooks on 01.30.19 at 12:35 am

#13 Terry on 01.29.19 at 5:45 pm

A slow long uneven melt in Canadian housing prices is the logical and the most likely outcome. Canada is not the USA or Australia. We have our own problems here but shorting the Canadian banks is not a safe bet in my opinion. In fact……it’s just a 100% gamble. Great article today Garth!

Well, we are in much worse shape considering debt.
US crashed in 2008 with much less debt, both private and public than us now (plus their house prices were much, much lower when compared to income than ours now). Australia is literally crashing as we speak. No slow melt.

Precisely that attitude, that we are different (meaning better when we are in fact worse) is the reason that we will simply fall from a much higher floor and our crash will be much, much worse because will be unexpected by the sheeple who is repeatedly told that all is well, we are more prudent, we are different, our health care better, blah blah blah….

This is not logic, this is what you are brainwashed into.

Like the Swan Allen guy who is announcing great success by having medium NOMINAL income increasing by less than 1 % before taxes (probably shrinks after the enhanced CPP, carbon taxes etc) while inflation roars and rents in the big cities increase by 15 % .

It is quite disturbing that this new ‘reality’ of 1.5-2 million dollar homes, including in crappy locations as Mississauga, Vaughan etc, are sold as the ‘new normal’
for people earning minimum wages in the 30 k range.

Banks are ‘stable’ due to the government guarantees.

I happen to think that our current economic conditions can not sustain such bloated financial system and the more we are repeatedly convinced that things are OK and the more banks expand credit, the worse the outcome will be.

The ‘growth’ expectations is constantly revised down, now to 1.7 % yearly in the next 10 years despite the huge expected immigrant inflows that liberals are dreaming about (no sane and qualified immigrant will come here, just look at the polar vortex outside, it gets worse each winter).

If we discount the real inflation of at least 6-8 % (look at rents) we probably decline by 5 % + yearly which is normal in a severe credit contraction.

Life will become so expensive that at some point people will simply start exiting en masse the debt traps called real estate.

#80 dosouth on 01.30.19 at 12:49 am

Now this is a puff piece that takes statistical bending to a whole new level…

Nanaimo more expensive than New Yor City – Huff Post

#81 Russ on 01.30.19 at 1:04 am

not 1st on 01.29.19 at 8:45 pm

Only a matter of time before one of Canadas premier companies is gone.

https://calgaryherald.com/business/energy/transcanada-hires-rbc-to-help-sell-up-to-75-stake-in-coastal-gaslink-pipeline

Thanks commie Horgan, Trudeau and millennial fools. You made Canada poorer now you can own it. Hope you enjoy tax enslavement.
=======================

Doesn’t this mean there is a buyer to run it?

Could the buyer have a connection to the Morneau, Trudeau, Irvine or Weston families?

That’s how this government power thing works, isn’t it?

#82 Smoking Man on 01.30.19 at 1:08 am

Let’s get that UN carbon tax going before the minions figure out AL Gore, Susiki are hacks and con men just before the freeze to death.

When T2 and Barbie say you’re getting the money back with a profit. Well it’s a lie. It’s going to the criminals in the UN.

Happy polar vortex Patriots from the great,

Dr Surfing Smoking Man broadcasting live from beautiful Southern California. Epic Tan for Jan.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-29/amidst-global-warming-hysteria-nasa-scientists-expect-global-cooling

#83 DON on 01.30.19 at 1:24 am

#46 Blacksheep on 01.29.19 at 7:46 pm

Slurrey #39,

“Just in time for the Liberals to get back in power and bury such information as deep as possible to never speak of again and make money laundering great…again.”

“Too many people and too much greed to shut this down. Everyone is in on it.”

“If you are complaining about it, you are one of the have nots.”
—————————
Xactly, that’s why it’s called a growth industry : )

***********

Mr. Coleman is that you? ha ha!

#84 Not So New guy on 01.30.19 at 1:32 am

People need to understand that the government will throw taxpayers under the bus before they throw the banks

#85 Smoking Man on 01.30.19 at 2:09 am

Movie Wakefield.

It’s a snapshot of my life

#86 Nonplused on 01.30.19 at 2:20 am

#120 LivinLarge (yesterday)

““Yesterday some commentors took to calling President Trump a “pathological” liar. Yes, he may well be. But reflect on your own life. You are too. Yes, you are. “…no they’re not. Yes it seems that everyone tells a lie “now and then” when it suits their objectives but The Don lies over and over every single day for no benefit. That’s what makes his lies “pathalogical. He just can’t stop himself…he thinks people actually believe the lie.”

See, here is the thing: Lying on occasion when it suites you and lying all the time are only differentiated by when it suites you. All things are like this. When is it too much lying? When is it too much cheating? How many affairs are allowed and how many are “too many”? Is 10 km over the speed limit ok but 20 is not?

Fact is you humans out there lie every single time you think you can get away with it. All of you do. Even when you tell your adult children that you are only looking out for their best interest by telling them what to do, you are lying. You are looking out for your own best interest. The babies do it too. It is the first skill a young child learns after learning to talk.

So it may be the case that every single thing that Trump says is a lie of some sort. You can be sure that every single thing that Pelosi says is also a lie. They, neither of them, are in the business of “truth telling”. They are in the business of shaping public opinion.

The thing you have to remember before you can do any thinking is that “everything you think you know just isn’t so”. Humility comes before wisdom.

As a humble person, you would not conclude that Trump lies about everything. That makes you a high powered long distance mind reader. Instead what happened is somebody else lied and told you Trump was lying and you believed it because that is your natural persuasion. What Trump said didn’t agree with what you already believed, so he was lying.

Folks, Trump is just a man, fallible as we all are. He is not a super powerful daemon or some sort of Pokemon. He’s better at persuasion than most people are, and that can be attributed to some negative psychological traits, but then before we cast too many stones about that we must remember that Justin beat Stephen in Canada. Persuasion can win no matter the fact there is nothing behind the curtains.

#87 I am Truman on 01.30.19 at 2:26 am

Nonplused,

I have to agree every time my wife asks me if “I look good in this dress”. She’d look a lot better if she wore exercise outfits more often, for the appropriate purpose, and stopped eating so damn much. But I lie. “That looks great honey.” I lie and lie and lie and lie. It’s either that or die.

#88 Where's The Money Greedeau? on 01.30.19 at 2:36 am

I’m moving, going to enter the rental market in BC after 30-ish years, trying to beat the rush from foreclosure victims and was looking for other banks-cu’s to do biz with than my present ones. Hope I don’t get renovicted after my year lease runs out.
Do any doggers know of good promos or sites that show the best deals for moving money over?

Still fighting the symptoms of being let down by Vancity’s NON-compliance re: selling before losses, from 10 years ago. I think someone called it frozen markets or something like that.
I call it manipulation and scamming the little guy.

#89 Coach on 01.30.19 at 2:42 am

Anyone who has coached minor sports will know that kids cheat, and the more they get away with it the more the do it. It’s as simple as that. Tier 1 kids are always worse cheaters than tier 2 kids, who are in turn worse cheaters than tier 3 kids. Cheating, and getting away with it, is what separates the kids, not so much skill, although that does play in. And it is also what is built into our genes. We are born to cheat to win.

All socialism is is cheating. Life or death cheating. But when your life is on the line because you cannot survive another way, cheat with socialism. Especially if you don’t want to mow lawns because that is beneath you.

#90 Where's The Money Greedope? on 01.30.19 at 3:17 am

Re: #61 Bottoms_Up on 01.29.19 at 9:28 pm
#4 not 1st on 01.29.19 at 5:06 pm
—————————-
You climate change deniers are too funny.

Record droughts in Cali. Category 5 hurricanes in Florida. Tornados in Havana. Record rainstorms in Canada. Thundersnow. Coldest snowstorm on record. Polar vortexes.

Tell me–which decade has the warmest years on record?
++++++++++++++++++++++++
Well most can agree on the recent anomalies that can be explained historically but a lot don’t agree on the source being man-made and the gov’t’s rip off carbon tax and why China and India won’t participate.
I think I may know-a couple hundred million souls to control compared to a couple million per Canada. We are such push-overs and that shite just won’t go in those places, people there aren’t UN one world sheeple like our Trudope.
That’s the rubber meeting the road.

#91 Howard on 01.30.19 at 5:24 am

#8 Bobby Bittman on 01.29.19 at 5:29 pm
So let’s see….

Markets up. Corporate profits up. Bank profits up. Employment up. Prices up.

Just one thing down. Inflation adjusted wages. I’m struggling real hard to figure out why wages are so “stubborn” LOL

—————————————

The answer to your question will be censored.

#92 All Canada a rip-off on 01.30.19 at 5:58 am

64 rknusa on 01.29.19 at 9:40 pm
Second, house prices outside of the GTA and moronic re “patches in BC have never been in a bubble, and are not subject to a bust. It’s still cheap to live in Halifax, Winnipeg, Montreal or Windsor.”

pretty much the whole country went house horny

prices in Windsor are up almost 50% in two years, what no bubble there – no FOMO, right, Montreal is going crazy, Halifax has already burned itself out with high prices just waitng to collapse – puhleeeze

prices in rural Ontario 100’s of miles from TO are still ridiculous, yup no bubble here just good ole fashioned value for the money

———————————————————————

Absolutely correct. The entire country is a rip-off when it comes to real estate prices. Seriously $400,000 to live in Halifax? $400,000 plus to live in Winnipeg or Saskatoon?

You may want to rethink your original statement Garth, respectfully.

Halifax average income: $70,000. Average house price: $311,000. Ratio: 4.4. Vancouver ratio: 13. – Garth

#93 under the radar on 01.30.19 at 6:03 am

One of the things i do is manage a 90 unit purpose built apartment building and believe me when i say, people don’t live there because they are watching their portfolios grow. Except for the old widows who may have a pension and some BCE shares , and the young people starting out with nothing, it is akin to prison. Except you leave before you kill the person on the floor above you.

#94 Where's The Money Greedope? on 01.30.19 at 6:44 am

Re: #69 creditunion on 01.29.19 at 10:02 pm
Just to clarify; Credit Unions are co-operatives. You can’t own Vancity or Coast (more than your one voting share per member), they don’t offer equity shares.

Some have ownership units, and all members are stakeholders. – Garth
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

I’ve been a member of both those CUs at different times since the 80’s. They are no different than banks in their treatment of their “members” since they expanded, except maybe a miniscule % point higher GIC rates. Now, the inability/time to contact them via phone no difference.
Vancity moved first, then Coast in mid-2000s purchasing smaller CUs.
Coast Capital, in the fall of 2017, hired Dave Gaskin as CFO, former OSFI Director, and Dave Avren, (https://ca.linkedin.com/in/david-avren-86966554), as Director Of Legal Compliance, now Director of the RE Council of BC. Avren was former BC Hydro’s legal beagle, run-of-river IPP composers in BC.

Coast is now a bank in all instances, ditching the CUIDC for CIDC and going federal. They see the writing on the wall in the amount of the mortgages they’ve written vis-a-vis deposits:
(https://annualreport.coastcapitalsavings.com/).

Coast is wanting to be able to escape the upcoming foreclosures by being bailed-in and not being on the hook for the $1 million CUIDC coverage/insurance. It might be smart; make the taxpayers cover, but might be a tomb for their so called members.
Take a look at the books-a lot of mtgs on those sheets.

A postcard for Savings and Loans (SNL) type banks in the US that went down; exponential growth in services/deposits with teaser rates but plunging net income, parallel to gov’ts “overhead” of all stripes, raping their plebs. See a pattern?

Former AG Geoff Plant under Campbell now exposed with meeting BC Clerk:
(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geoff_Plant),

(https://www.commonground.ca/OLD/iss/214/pdfs/Take_back_your_power8a.pdf),

http://www.fishingwithrod.com/yabbse/index.php?topic=20642.0

“Other insiders who’ve assumed leadership in the IPP world are: Geoff Plant (former attorney-general, now chair of Renaissance Power); Naikun Wind CEO Paul Taylor (former CEO of ICBC and a deputy finance minister); Stephen Kukucha, president and CEO of Atla Energy (former senior policy adviser for the ministry of environment); Bruce Young (former B.C. Liberal campaign manager, now a director of Atla Energy); Bob Herath (former ministry of the environment staffer now with Syntaris Power); and Alexander Kiess (former project supervisor with B.C. Hydro, now consulting as a project supervisor for Syntaris Power).”
How obvious is it?
Anyone in BC who pays hydro bills knows how that turned out.

(https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/timeline-the-battle-over-b-c-s-hst-1.993242

Have a look at the history of CUs in Australia when they went federal in the mid-2000s, Avren’s birthplace. Members taken to the cleaners while Directors made out like bandits.

This is looking a lot like having BC Liberal Rich Coleman’s ‘whatever’ Ministry that needed assets diminished, including selling 28,000 hectares of gov’t land to his brother’s company Western Forest Products to develop: (https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/auditor-general-s-report-slams-sale-of-forestry-lands-1.725266)

https://thetyee.ca/News/2008/01/14/TreeFarmDeal/

BC money laundry just given a free pass by the Trudopes, I jest: https://www.straight.com/news/1170431/high-profile-money-laundering-case-wont-proceed

I guess it does pay to align with the people behind running Canada that’s using gov’t as a front, if you have no conscience. So many trips to China for Canadian politicians-gov’t clerks-RE-insiders the past dozen years or so in the guise of ‘diplomacy’, present BC Premier included right after he was elected.

This has now extended to our municipal ranks: https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/vancouver-city-council-to-consider-joining-call-for-public-inquiry-into-money-laundering.

Vancouver can thank last BC mayor “Greg-gore” Robertson, ex “I’m going to rid homelessness”, who conveniently never vied for the seat this year. He sees the writing since he sold his duplex just down the street from Lululemon billionaire Dennis J. “Chip” Wilson, then being dumped by his China Girl, Chinese singer-songwriter Wanting Qu.
She got hers. He got his; now living in a ‘Vanoc’-ver penthouse.
Like I’ve said before, birds of a feather.

The stench is way deep on all fronts and needs a thorough, huge enema and if we don’t see one soon, we should get the yellow vests out and end it all, one way or the other.
I’m for the latter if that hasn’t been apparent. I’ve had a good-ish life, if unremarkable, and it won’t take much to push it, push it good!
Time to see some retribution!

#95 Ace Goodheart on 01.30.19 at 6:45 am

RE: #71 yorkville renter on 01.29.19 at 10:28 pm
#65 Ace… Maybe warming is good. We sure need it here

“The lamest argument against climate change is the denial because there’s cold weather outside. Look at the overall average Earth temperature, which has steadily increased, for many many years.”

This is probably the worst argument in favour of global warming, because it is virtually impossible to either prove or disprove it.

How does one go about measuring “the average temperature of the Earth?”

Think about this for a minute. The temperature in downtown Toronto, at any day of the year, varies by about 3 degrees depending on where you measure it.

Temperature decreases by about 2 degrees per one thousand feet of altitude. Are they measuring on the ground?

Daytime temps are higher than night time temps. Are they measuring during the day? If so, when? Did they always measure at the same time of the day, each day, each year, going back 30 or 40 years? Always in the exact same spot, everywhere, all around the planet?

Did thermometers get more accurate? 30 years ago we used a tube filled with dyed alcohol. Now we are all digital. Did this change the readings up or down?

This planet is huge, and the temperatures are different wherever you go. Wind patterns, ocean currents, just the usual variable climate patterns, will change the average temp measured in one location over a period of years, up and down. If you measure the temp outside of our cottage each day of the year, for 30 years, for example, you are not going to get a steady upward rise. You will get a slightly downward trend, as it is getting colder in the winters up there, and the summers have less hot days than they used to.

When people talk about “average Earth temperatures” I want to scream. There is no reliable way of measuring this.

It has turned out that “global warming” is just another way for our governments to tax us. That is all it is going to be. A bunch of scary movies about the end of the world, and more taxes. Nothing else will change. Just, they take more of your money.

We have been had, again…..

#96 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.30.19 at 7:11 am

My goodness.
The climate change deniers and the Trump-o-maniacs are all beginning to sound like the same shrill, implausible lunatics.

Unusually warm in BC this winter, another record warm winter?
Very little snow fall, I expect even worse forest fires this summer in BC to add to the “Smoke-a-Okanagan” choke fest we had last year….
No no, radical climate change is a myth.
Massive temp swings world wide, isnt happening, nothing to see….move along.
Oh, right. Unless we’re Elon Musk with a rocket to Mars….we cant leave…

The big unknown is, how much more heat can the Oceans absorb before all the fish die from lack of oxygen?

and a one and a two and a three…….

#97 not 1st on 01.30.19 at 7:26 am

61 Bottoms_Up on 01.29.19 at 9:28 pm

——
Yeah buddy hate to tell you but all those things were happening 100 yrs ago too.

The IPCC report of 2001 same time as Gores BS came out specifically said in 20 yrs the seas would rise 20 ft and world would be 4deg warmer. Since that time more coastal development has been built. Shouldn’t people be rushing inland if its all so dire.

They lied or are incompetent and they are still lying to this day.

#98 Steven Rowlandson on 01.30.19 at 7:40 am

If employers see fit to under employ and under pay their workers to the point where the workers can work in the here and now but only live in homes with 1940’s to early 1960’s prices; then the system is indeed ripe to implode and blow away in the wind. Best to get out of the way and watch things crash and burn from the sidelines.
Get ready to vultch. Silly irresponsible people and organizations in Canada got drunk on cheap currency, had grandiose dreams fueled by debt and false assumptions and did not see the dangers or did not want to see the dangers of their action plans. They are all over 18 and are responsible for their actions. Let them take the lumps for it and no bail outs or bail ins. The cheating has to stop also.

#99 Moms Mittens on 01.30.19 at 7:47 am

oh dear, I hope Garth doesn’t see this …

https://ca.yahoo.com/finance/news/immigrants-canadas-highest-priced-homes-statscan-201454694.html

#100 Tater on 01.30.19 at 7:53 am

#29 Sail away on 01.29.19 at 6:42 pm
There are definitely other areas worth shorting- generally, anywhere government decides to meddle with private business is a good place to start.
———————————————————

Like mortgage lending businesses with a government backstop?

#101 not 1st on 01.30.19 at 8:19 am

Canadians are such dirty polluters and wasters and we need to be guilt shames and punished hard by the govt and UN.

Meanwhile lets look in at how other countries are doing;

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v8lu9ntmPJo

oops.

#102 The real Kip (Ret) on 01.30.19 at 8:24 am

There will be no ‘jingle mail’ in Canada. Canadians will do whatever is necessary to keep their houses. As long as they’re working they’ll keep their houses.

#103 LivinLarge on 01.30.19 at 8:27 am

I find it sort of amusing watching people blindly compare US consumer banking and Canadian. There are some fundamental differences that make a world of difference.

First, there are like likely 1,000 different US banks with many privately held. In Canada there are fundamentally about six with some being regionally focused and none privately owned.

Because of their federal charters, Canadian banks have evolved into arms of the federal government’s grand fiscal policy so our feds have a huge vested interest in keeping things rolling along smoothly. Not surprising then that the US wanted greater access to our consumer financial markets when negotiating the new NAFTA.

So, while Candian banks aren’t immune to global financial fluxuations and panic, they have always sailed through these and prospered.

Also, as mentioned here, the top 5 CDN banks have major US ops that recently have delivered incredibly nice results to their bottom lines. BMO for one reported a 36% increase in US ops in the most recently reported quarter and raised their dividend.

So, without any question, CDN banks are money churning companies essentially backed by the CDN government. The majority of US banks are private enterprises suject to the vagaries of the US markets.

#104 yorkville renter on 01.30.19 at 8:28 am

#95 – The answer to that is easy- the same stations measure the temp in their immediate area and the measurement is the high and low for the day.

If there’s no reliable way to measure temperature, how do you know you’re accurate? how is it possible to state average temperature anywhere?

I think you’re purposely being naive or contrarian.

#105 John Howarth on 01.30.19 at 8:29 am

Trusteau government claims that they “invested” ( wasted?) 5.6 billion since 2016 to create 1 million low income housing spaces. They did admit that the number might be inflated a “little”. How can 5.6 k/per person create a living space?? However this spending will probably stop, so there will be less money flowing to real estate from the government.

#106 Headhunter on 01.30.19 at 8:29 am

50% haircut at a minimum. Too many converging factors.
Oakville down 25% from the peak Innisfil ON down 30% shitshow hasn’t even started yet

Maybe its the age we are at on the blog, however the generation behind us does not think like us and/or value what we did. They simply do not care about the shit that we do. Marriage down birth rates down spin that stat however you want.

I don’t blame them at all as they are smart. We have pushed them to a point of apathy as in “why bother”

The juice aint worth the squeeze to them… comment a week ago here wondered why co-workers making 30K ordering take out for lunch via UBER. There is your answer. May as well enjoy my life now. Take that to the bank..

Your home will never be worth more than it is today. Sorry.
50% minimum.

#107 Erich on 01.30.19 at 8:33 am

Please remind me again, when is the Toronto real estate correction happening?

https://www.blogto.com/real-estate-toronto/2019/01/tiny-toronto-shack-sale-25-million/

BTW, for all those who’ve slagged the housing market for years, I for one regret selling my west end Toronto home in the spring of 2016 for $780K when today a comparable house in the same area goes for a little under $1M. Even with a correction I don’t think houses in TO are going back down to an affordable level. My first house was $240K at around 7% back in 2000. I was able to buy that when I was 30 and making $50K/yr. That house would now go for about $900K (which I couldn’t afford now at 49 making $90K/yr). Rents are now going through the roof too and the places I’ve looked at recently are complete dumps. I checked out a place in the east end last week for $2580/mth that I wouldn’t put a dog in (Bandit would be horrified). Not sure what the solution is for the average person here in TO.

#108 NYCer on 01.30.19 at 8:33 am

#28 Deplorable Dude on 01.29.19 at 6:36 pm
Its cheap to live in Winnipeg because it’s currently colder than Antartica…literally. Bet those folks are really enjoying paying their carbon tax right about now.

——————————————————

Not sure which part of Antarctica you are referring to but right now on the penninsula where most travel to, it’s summer there and it’s about 5 to -5C. I can confirm and report when I head there in 3 weeks.

#109 Tater on 01.30.19 at 8:34 am

#95 Ace Goodheart on 01.30.19 at 6:45 am
RE: #71 yorkville renter on 01.29.19 at 10:28 pm
#65 Ace… Maybe warming is good. We sure need it here

“The lamest argument against climate change is the denial because there’s cold weather outside. Look at the overall average Earth temperature, which has steadily increased, for many many years.”

This is probably the worst argument in favour of global warming, because it is virtually impossible to either prove or disprove it.

How does one go about measuring “the average temperature of the Earth?”

Think about this for a minute. The temperature in downtown Toronto, at any day of the year, varies by about 3 degrees depending on where you measure it.

Temperature decreases by about 2 degrees per one thousand feet of altitude. Are they measuring on the ground?

Daytime temps are higher than night time temps. Are they measuring during the day? If so, when? Did they always measure at the same time of the day, each day, each year, going back 30 or 40 years? Always in the exact same spot, everywhere, all around the planet?

Did thermometers get more accurate? 30 years ago we used a tube filled with dyed alcohol. Now we are all digital. Did this change the readings up or down?

This planet is huge, and the temperatures are different wherever you go. Wind patterns, ocean currents, just the usual variable climate patterns, will change the average temp measured in one location over a period of years, up and down. If you measure the temp outside of our cottage each day of the year, for 30 years, for example, you are not going to get a steady upward rise. You will get a slightly downward trend, as it is getting colder in the winters up there, and the summers have less hot days than they used to.

When people talk about “average Earth temperatures” I want to scream. There is no reliable way of measuring this.

It has turned out that “global warming” is just another way for our governments to tax us. That is all it is going to be. A bunch of scary movies about the end of the world, and more taxes. Nothing else will change. Just, they take more of your money.

We have been had, again…..
—————————————————————

Wonderful argument. “I don’t know how something is done, thus it is impossible”

https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-how-do-scientists-measure-global-temperature

https://www.space.com/17816-earth-temperature.html

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/world-of-change/DecadalTemp

#110 n1tro on 01.30.19 at 8:45 am

#95 Ace Goodheart on 01.30.19 at 6:45 am

Stop with all your logical questions! You are making the gerbil in people’s heads start to move in its exercise wheel. What’s next? Free will? Free thought with sensible discussion?! We can’t have that here! It would be madness!!!!

#111 Godth on 01.30.19 at 8:46 am

#65 Ace Goodheart
Australia weather: The extreme heat in South Australia and Victoria has come at a cost of $1.1 billion in energy bills
https://www.9news.com.au/national/2019/01/30/06/41/heatwave-power-bill-south-australia-victoria-energy

Jet Stream Breakdown Puts 66m Americans at Risk – Tomorrow
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qsKMx7yMnME

#112 Conspiratard on 01.30.19 at 8:52 am

DELETED

#113 IHCTD9 on 01.30.19 at 8:54 am

#92 All Canada a rip-off on 01.30.19 at 5:58 am
64 rknusa on 01.29.19 at 9:40 pm

…prices in rural Ontario 100’s of miles from TO are still ridiculous, yup no bubble here just good ole fashioned value for the money

———————————————————————

Absolutely correct. The entire country is a rip-off when it comes to real estate prices. Seriously $400,000 to live in Halifax? $400,000 plus to live in Winnipeg or Saskatoon?
______

That’s not really taking in the whole scope. A brand new nice bungalow in small town Ontario is about 400K. A brand new 1500-1700 sf house on an acre (2 car garage etc.. and very nice) is about 500K.

BUT – There are also plenty of 125-200K homes to get started out in. You’ll have to do some work – but you’ll have plenty of spare cash to do so as your monthly is going to be less than local rent.

It’s going to run you about 300K minimum – ANYWHERE – just to build a nice new house these days before you pay for the land.

Also, the cost of borrowing is still half what it was 20 years ago. That’s a huge savings for today’s buyers.

Yes there are houses that are way overpriced – but they will sit and rot. My local mls is stuffed full of these right now – some have attempted selling for years off and on with no success. There are plenty of 200K used homes and 400-500K new homes – I can’t say that’s a bad mix – or over priced.

#114 Godth on 01.30.19 at 8:54 am

#95 Ace Goodheart
look what we can do.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-92.81,45.26,296/loc=-97.926,46.987

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=-92.81,45.26,296/loc=-97.926,46.987

#115 James on 01.30.19 at 9:12 am

RBC has been a stellar performer for me. Can not complain on the returns. Garth is right when the banks go low buy the bank.

#116 Figure it Out on 01.30.19 at 9:16 am

“Daytime temps are higher than night time temps. Are they measuring during the day? If so, when? Did they always measure at the same time of the day, each day, each year, going back 30 or 40 years? Always in the exact same spot, everywhere, all around the planet?”

Seriously? Yeah, same spot, same time of day, stretching back to when we invented thermometers. Just like, shortly after we invented a way to measure angles accurately, somebody thought it might be an idea to measure where Mercury and Saturn were in the sky, every night for thirty years at about the same time. Same as 5,000 years ago, we kept track of the height of the Nile river every day of the year for centuries.

Our education system is failing us woefully.

#117 Penny Henny on 01.30.19 at 9:33 am

48 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.29.19 at 8:07 pm
@#37 When the bell tolls
” Good time to get into the auto repo business….”
*****

I’m not so sure.
All indications are….New and Used cars sales have fallen off a cliff since the beginning of Dec…….
Who’s gonna buy your repo?

Any anonymous car salesmen care to jump in?
//////////////////////

Car is repo’ed, taken to auction and sold for whatever the top bid is. There is no ‘reserve’ price with banks and such when they are looking to unload vehicles.
Everything will sell, just at a lower price.

Penny Henny (retired car guy)

#118 Godth on 01.30.19 at 9:42 am

#109 n1tro
oh yeah, pure genius.
or you could just do this:
https://www.google.com/search?q=how+to+calculate+global+average+temperature&oq=how+do+we+calculate+global+average+temp&aqs=chrome.1.69i57j0.20770j0j8&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

and we have real time info. available to joe six pack from satellites on earth nullschool and climate reanalyzer. https://climatereanalyzer.org/

or you could go on youtube and listen to actual scientists explain it to you, like this: https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=paul+beckwith+jet+streams

but free will fantasy is always more entertaining. science is hard, and often imperfect so let your imagination run wild and call it reality. so edgy.

#119 Godth on 01.30.19 at 9:57 am

#115 Figure it Out
time is a human construct…and what’s with those leap years? you don’t know what time it really is. /sarcasm off.

look what this kook has been doing for a couple decades:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=57C_TwfYUw8
wild stuff.

#120 TomMac on 01.30.19 at 10:15 am

With 40% of Canadians a paycheck away from insolvency and consumer debt levels where they are I don’t see how the banks can avoid a massive slowdown in lending and a lot of mortgage debt going south. Throw in HELOCs, whose principal in many cases cannot be repaid,and it’s not a very bullish scenario. In my opinion, there are better places to invest than Canadian banks. Maybe in two years, but not now.

#121 cramar on 01.30.19 at 10:19 am

The recent partial U.S. Government shutdown underscores that our American friends are just as pooched financially as we are in the Great White North. The U.S. news over the last few weeks give a reoccurring theme that many gov’t. workers live paycheck to paycheck. In fact, according to Forbes, 63% of all American don’t have enough savings to cover a $500 emergency! Shocking! They’re as bad as us! I guess, like Canucks, they don’t read this blog either!

I must confess that I bought BMO when the stock took a dive in recent weeks. I wanted more dividend-paying stock and couldn’t resist the opportunity.

#122 not 1st on 01.30.19 at 10:19 am

If climate change is such a dire threat then the most logical solution is to limit the people on the planet and newcomers to the country because that uses up precious resources that contribute to the problem.

Where is that proposal godth? You are the king of cut and paste but cant see the nose on your face. Stop parroting paid for scientists who make their living off this stuff. Of course they are at the trough for funding. They make their living at the grace of the unquestioning lazy public believing in fairy stories.

Did you know that carbon is released at the edge of colliding and sliding tectonic plates? Can you tell me how much? There are dozens of fudged variables in those models and that’s why they never align with reality.

If they had it cased, then the 7 day forecast would be perfect everytime. Best guess science with a dose of hysteria. Spare me the drivel. In 12 yrs the earth will look just like it does now.

#123 Deplorable Dude on 01.30.19 at 10:34 am

#95 Ace Goodheart…”This is probably the worst argument in favour of global warming, because it is virtually impossible to either prove or disprove it.”

This is the major issue. Climate change theory fits the definition of an ideology. All events are considered proof. Hence it’s not falsifiable.

Or even bizarre…we’re expected to accept at face value that the coldest air flows on record are coming down from a warming arctic…hmmmmm?

You’re correct Ace…there are no widespread historical worldwide records to be able to make the claim of global warming. If you bother to read the link below you will see that much historical data was simply made up, and worst if all…historical data was altered.

The hottest decade in recent record was the 40’s in the US…the only country to have widespread monitoring. But those records have been erased from current alarmist reports due to being somewhat inconvenient.

https://realclimatescience.com/2019/01/overwhelming-evidence-of-collusion/

#124 Phylis on 01.30.19 at 10:35 am

#95 ace. I would be happy just to know that all the measurement devices follow an iso standard and calibration schedule. I bet these people are too cheap and pocket the research budgets for themselves.

#125 Blacksheep on 01.30.19 at 10:40 am

Russ # 75,

creditunion on 01.29.19 at 10:02 pm

“And the deposits are protected by the provincial government, up to the prudent amount.”
—————————
Remember reading the fine print on this about 10 years ago as a Coast Capital member.

Totally open ended as to ‘when’ they would be required
to make one whole, after a catastrophic financial event.

If you’re relying on said funds to survive, you’ll be bankrupt, long before you see any $’s from a C.U.

#126 n1tro on 01.30.19 at 10:54 am

Before we rest on “well weather stations has the temperature records” and “it shows its getting hotter” as absolute proof. Ask objectively what/why temperature records indicate a huge spike at the same time the # of operational stations dropped significantly like the one fellow at U. of Guelph.

https://www.uoguelph.ca/~rmckitri/research/nvst.html

A one way ANOVA test of the data may prove insightful but what do I know.

#127 Figure it Out on 01.30.19 at 11:01 am

“Did you know that carbon is released at the edge of colliding and sliding tectonic plates? Can you tell me how much? There are dozens of fudged variables in those models and that’s why they never align with reality.”

How is it that people can learn to spell and write and punctuate, yet can’t reason their way out of a wet paper bag?

If we can measure how much CO2 is in the atmosphere (we can), and if we know how much humans are adding to it (we do), we can solve for X, where X is “everything else.” Isn’t that obvious?

#128 NoName on 01.30.19 at 11:02 am

i wish that this dude does stand up, he is funny very funny.

https://youtu.be/_toqPJpyeGw

#129 Howard on 01.30.19 at 11:08 am

#33 Penny Henny on 01.29.19 at 6:55 pm
140 Howard on 01.29.19 at 1:26 pm
#122 Penny Henny on 01.29.19 at 11:24 am
#50 Not so sure on 01.28.19 at 7:34 pm
#36 My dad is 75 and is worth several ill gotten real estate millions. He has re, cash and investments and still defers the tax because he cannot afford it. It’s hilarious.
///////////////////////

You Dad sounds smart deferring the tax. You? Not so sure.

———————————————

Way to miss the point. Try again?
///////////////////////

Sure Howard let me try?

Dad pays 1% per year to defer his property taxes.
He then invests this deferred tax an get gets an average return of 6%.
The 1% paid is less than the rate of inflation.

Dad is smart and yes I did miss the point obviously, care to fill me in?

——————————————

The point isn’t whether Dad is smart or not.

The point/issue is whether these tax-dodging allowances for wealthy, fortunate old people should even be permitted in the first place.

#130 Godth on 01.30.19 at 11:13 am

#121 not 1st
you’re just one facepalm after another. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gish_gallop

the models are incorrect though, the science has been too conservative. as more empirical studies roll in the worse it gets. https://www.google.com/search?q=climate+change+faster+than+expected&ei=oMhRXI7cE46z8APD_6bgCw&start=0&sa=N&ved=0ahUKEwiOrMHc7pXgAhWOGXwKHcO_Cbw4FBDy0wMIZw&biw=1366&bih=657
there are way too many people on the planet as well, in 2030 there will be around 8.5 billion if projections pan out. that will be different. there are also too many people consuming way too much “stuff”, the rich are the worst offenders by far.
how embarrassingly out of touch are the “elite”?
Davos laughs at AOC tax proposals
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5sl7yVVaKl4
Rutger Bregman – Davos Taxes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7IPT1lf2Nzk
so we’ll do what every civilization has done. behold “eden”: https://oi.uchicago.edu/gallery/archaeological-site-photographs-mesopotamia-uruk#uruk01.png

#131 Mattl on 01.30.19 at 11:14 am

“It’s going to run you about 300K minimum – ANYWHERE – just to build a nice new house these days before you pay for the land.”

This is 100% true and is why there is an obvious bottom for housing prices in Canada. Homes can fall below replacement cost, but only so much.

So the posters above crying about 400K homes in Winnipeg or Halifax, that is right around replacement cost. Very unlikely that these places will sell for 200K at any time in the future.

There are a bunch of Kelowna RE doomers on this site that are convinced that the average property will fall by up to 50%. Let’s take a house in my area that sold this past year – 3900 sqft on 2 acres lake view. Sold for a little under 800K. House could use updating but needs nothing. That’s 210 per sqft for the house and you get the land for free (which is assessed at 500K). How much lower can these properties go? There is no scenario where a place like this sells at 50% discount.

The cost to build today is simply too much. Now that might change, and if the market goes in the toilet I’m sure framing and roofing crews will drop prices. But I don’t see a day where you can hire a builder for under 100 bux per sqft, and so the basement price for a new 2.5K sqft home + land in any city is going to be north of 300K plus land, like you said. Which means there is still decent value in a lot of places in Canada, where you can get a decent, livable home for 200K.

Those 900K places in maple ridge that have a replacement cost of 800K? Ya, that’s going to be a problem.

#132 Ubul on 01.30.19 at 11:27 am

#121 not 1st on 01.30.19 at 10:19 am

If climate change is such a dire threat then the most logical solution is to limit the people on the planet and newcomers to the country because that uses up precious resources that contribute to the problem.

Indeed, migration from warm climate countries to cold climate countries, to increase population there, is increasing carbon footprint. Not just for direct life support, but also by creating more high energy/resources dependent consumers.

#133 David Pylyp on 01.30.19 at 11:30 am

Everyone wants to avoid the price reductions (oops Adjustments) that occured between 2000 and 2005. Prices slide by the week.

In Mississauga, (2000) a detached home was selling for $369 K was 3,300 square feet. [beit #100 per square foot]

Compare that with today where sky boxes are breaking $750 per square foot and still selling out pre con.

The difference appears to be inventory [available listings] There simply are less.

I agree wholeheartedly with your conclusion; ” I’m sticking with my long-held (and so far accurate) prediction that a 10-15% plop in prices in major markets would be followed by a years-long slow price melt. ”

It will be a prolonged period of painful price reductions as the falling market meets the buyer.

The big Variables are the a) interest rate increases b) Stress Test c) IF Morneau bring back 30 years AM

Cheers

David Pylyp
Toronto

#134 For those about to flop... on 01.30.19 at 11:32 am

For Crowdie…

Recent sale report.

Featured these guys a couple of times.

These guys got torn up.

The details…

5830 Sperling Avenue, Burnaby

Paid 2.8 April 2016

Sold 2.11 January 2019

Originally asking 2.89

Assessment 2.46

Absolute carnage.

Definitely the worst one I recall in Burnaby.

Close to 30% hit after expenses or roughly 850k.

They got speared by Sperling…

M44BC

Apr 24:$2,899,000
Jul 24: $2,290,000
Change: – 609000.00 -21%

https://www.zolo.ca/burnaby-real-estate/5830-sperling-avenue

#135 Stan Brooks on 01.30.19 at 11:36 am

Pretty much spot on:

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/balsillie-calls-bs-canadian-policymakers-lofty-innovation-claims-122908595.html

Repeat some fancy words and hope that the world will believe you: Technology clusters, ministry of innovation, AI, all that jazz. It is all just words.

#136 Ace Goodheart on 01.30.19 at 11:39 am

Re 115 Figure it out:

If that is the case then what we have is data to suggest that in certain spots the temperature has increased by 2 degrees. That does not mean the entire planet is warming. That means certain spots have exhibited a slight warming trend.

So on a planet that is 4.5 billion years old, on certain spots, the temperature has gone up 2 degrees in 40 years.

Where are these testing spots located? Does anyone know? I would think that this would be really important to know, before supporting a theory that the entire planet has warmed up?

I would also like a longer record. Say 200,000 years Maybe? 40 years is a bit of a blip. The air masses that give us our micro climates move in 50 year cycles or more. So that does not even get us through one cycle.

#137 Briana on 01.30.19 at 11:46 am

I one hundred percent disagree. Remember too many people are carrying record debt and so are many provinces. In previous corrections real estate was much less and interest rates higher. Now most home are one million plus, incomes are not growing at the pace they used to and many more people of younger generations living well beyond their means that will have a difficult time in adjusting their lifestyles. We are way overdue for a major correction. In fact, it will be a full out collapse! Many foreigners that bought a home few years ago have already lost big time on the CAD drop. And Canada is not the safe haven it appeared before to international folks. Probably not 70%, but another 30% to 40% on top of the correction that has already occurred. Stay tuned folks! Obviously, Garth does not want to make the bankers and more real estate agents upset to maintain his biz, but he truly knows what the future holds. Get out while you can!

No bank will fail. Just people. – Garth

#138 Stan Brooks on 01.30.19 at 12:00 pm

No bank will fail. Just people. – Garth

Of course, that is a given, like saying that the water is wet.

We know that whatever folly banks do they will be bailed out/in by their friends in government, while the people won’t, I agree.

The question is: who is going to bail out/in the country with all that debt, inflation, lack of investments, innovation, excessive taxes and looming retirement crisis?

Will it impact the prudent people as well? Of course. The prudent always pay the price.

No bail-in of major Canadian bank will occur in your sorry lifetime. – Garth

#139 jess on 01.30.19 at 12:17 pm

what is the swiss bank going to do? too much liquidity?

2017
Private bankers
Patience wearing thin for negative interest rates

Negative interest rates are the bane of the financial sector – and the longer they remain, the louder bankers cry foul.
By Matthew Allen
https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/private-bankers_patience-wearing-thin-for-negative-interest-rates/43174886

From interest-free to interest-nearing

But how do such bills work? In general, banks would like to get rid of their excess liquidity because this yields no or even negative interest. But because all banks are in the same boat, this is not possible among one another.

Issuing SNB bills presents an attractive investment option for the national bank. Interest-free reserves can be exchanged for interest-bearing bills.

If commercial banks swap reserves for SNB bills, there’s less excess liquidity in the banking system. This shortage leads to a higher money market interest rate.

Of greater importance, however, is the fact that because the banks can invest their money at an interest rate chosen by the SNB, they will no longer be prepared to loan the same money to other banks at a lower rate. As a result, the level of interest rates goes up.
That said, technical and political challenges remain which need to be overcome in connection with the policy normalisation. Among other things, the SNB has to explain to the Swiss public why it will be necessary to pay interest to banks in order to raise interest rates. But the question of how the national bank will one day raise interest rates is in all likelihood already answered.
======

#140 jess on 01.30.19 at 12:18 pm

https://thebell.io/en/russia-s-toehold-of-influence-in-latin-america-under-threat-amid-venezuelan-turmoil/

=======
who is adam waldman?

#141 IHCTD9 on 01.30.19 at 12:29 pm

#117 Godth on 01.30.19 at 9:42 am

or you could go on youtube and listen to actual scientists explain it to you, like this:

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=paul+beckwith+jet+streams
_____

Just some food for thought:

Here is a Scientist. Guy McPherson is an American scientist, professor emeritus of natural resources and ecology and evolutionary biology at the University of Arizona.

He says Humans will be extinct by 2030. Extinct, as in gone forever.

Within 11 years…

He is a Scientist though, big education, multiple books and scholarly works, many awards, many interviews.

So… do you believe him?

#142 NoName on 01.30.19 at 12:35 pm

@ not1st

Dont argue with them, give them some of ther own medicine, invest in energy generation, wind and solar wont cut it, carbohydron based power generation coming to their towns before they even know it.

According to my cousin dude, coper and oil deleveraged some time ago… All new mines suck, almost half of copper comes from few companies that have decent yield, all new stuf not looking good. Let them do what they do, focus on metals that conduit electricity, and someone who will produce it. %[email protected]^ ’em

Good read.

https://www.amazon.ca/Electrician-Drives-Porsche-Profiting-Migration/dp/0993838405

#143 Duke on 01.30.19 at 12:55 pm

#133 For those about to flop… on 01.30.19 at 11:32 am

The details…

5830 Sperling Avenue, Burnaby

Paid 2.8 April 2016

Sold 2.11 January 2019

Originally asking 2.89

Assessment 2.46

Absolute carnage.

Definitely the worst one I recall in Burnaby.

Close to 30% hit after expenses or roughly 850k.

They got speared by Sperling…

M44BC

Apr 24:$2,899,000
Jul 24: $2,290,000
Change: – 609000.00 -21%

https://www.zolo.ca/burnaby-real-estate/5830-sperling-avenue

================

I have zero sympathy for the seller who lost nearly a million dollars. He/she deserves it 100%. The fact is, we will see more of this going forward. Another fact is, those who sold recently are the smart ones.

#144 Penny Henny on 01.30.19 at 12:56 pm

128 Howard on 01.30.19 at 11:08 am

Sure Howard let me try?

Dad pays 1% per year to defer his property taxes.
He then invests this deferred tax an get gets an average return of 6%.
The 1% paid is less than the rate of inflation.

Dad is smart and yes I did miss the point obviously, care to fill me in?

——————————————

The point isn’t whether Dad is smart or not.

The point/issue is whether these tax-dodging allowances for wealthy, fortunate old people should even be permitted in the first place.

/////////////////////

In the immortal words of Rosanne Rosannadanna

“Oh, nevermind”

#145 NoName on 01.30.19 at 1:06 pm

forgot this

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4162110-copper-fundamental-outlook-buy-dips

#146 IHCTD9 on 01.30.19 at 1:31 pm

#126 Figure it Out on 01.30.19 at 11:01 am

How is it that people can learn to spell and write and punctuate, yet can’t reason their way out of a wet paper bag?

If we can measure how much CO2 is in the atmosphere (we can), and if we know how much humans are adding to it (we do), we can solve for X, where X is “everything else.” Isn’t that obvious?
______

About 300,000 years ago, the C02 levels were 300 ppm as measured in air bubbles trapped in ice cores taken thousands of feet down in the Arctic. Prior to about 450,000 years ago – C02 levels have been measured as low as 170 ppm.

In fact, going back to prehistoric times – you’ll see millions upon millions of years where C02 levels were significantly over 1000 ppm. There was a time when Earth’s atmospheric C02 levels were over 6000 ppm (today were a bit over 400 ppm).

All this time, from 6000 ppm to 170 ppm; from anoxic oceans to ice ages – life continued to progress to cumulate in the most powerful creature that has ever lived on this planet – and maybe even in the Universe (us).

What basic lessons can re draw from this?

First obviously, is that Nature is by far the most powerful force in driving carbon levels, not humans.

Second, also obvious; is that life carries on regardless of carbon levels.

Third is that high C02 levels do not destroy the planet – they just change it.

And a bit of opinion to finish off: IMHO, in a global crises, we’re not just going to fall over dead like the dinosaurs did. Most of the history of the Earth did not include anything close to Humans, so the book has yet to be written on how we will fare in a major planet wide crises. The idea that we’re all toast just like that ignores our individual and collective abilities.

Sound reasonable?

#147 not 1st on 01.30.19 at 1:42 pm

#129 Godth on 01.30.19 at 11:13 am

——
Why don’t you tell me about that food guide from the 70s which we recently updated and how infallible scientists are. They have no clue whats going, how to measure it, how to compare it and what to do about it. So its perpetual study on the taxpayers back, put out a hysteria warning every few yrs for the socialist sheep and the free money wheel keeps on turning 24/7 decade after decade.

Why don’t you admit the truth, somewhere you failed in life and now have a hate on for wealth successful people and countries have to energy shame them to get yours. It all comes back to socialism. Honestly sad you need to tear down the basis of our society to feed your envy.

#148 Godth on 01.30.19 at 1:45 pm

#140 IHCTD9
so a bait and switch with a gotcha twist – nice.
do i believe that humans will be extinct in 2030? it’s possible. the science is aligning more with mcpherson all the time. he’s an evolutionary biologist so he comes at it from a plant adaptation mindset. methane (and co2) are increasingly escaping in the arctic and if the trend continues and there’s a sudden large burp then we’re likely cooked in short order, or our grain supply will be…and the rest of the dominoes will fall.
his rationale and sources: https://guymcpherson.com/climate-chaos/climate-change-summary-and-update/

#149 Midnights on 01.30.19 at 1:45 pm

Armstrong, need I say more?

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/climate/when-will-niagara-falls-completely-freeze/

https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/economics/amidst-global-warming-hysteria-nasa-expects-global-cooling-SJDpCv3V4EqKSOY11A378Q/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/agriculture/climate-change-commodities/

#150 Ace Goodheart on 01.30.19 at 1:49 pm

You lot that favour carbon taxation do remember that every tax we currently pay, was put in place to deal with a “cause”?

Those causes are mostly if not all lost to history now. But we continue to pay the taxes. Our many, many gas taxes, for example, each had a “cause”. Does anyone remember any of them? We still pay gas taxes that were put in place to deal with the 1973 oil crisis.

All of our taxes are like that. The entire income tax act itself is like that (it was supposed to be temporary).

Once our government taxes something that is it. A bureaucracy builds up around the tax, with political appointments and jobs for well connected people. The tax then becomes a permanent part of our lives.

So when people say “tax carbon” does anyone realize that carbon is the fundamental building block of all known life on planet earth and carbon is produced during the production of all our motive power other than electricity generated by either water or nuclear driven turbines?

Carbon is everything folks (they have yet to find a silicone based life form). We are giving our government the right to put a blanket tax on EVERYTHING.

That means that everything will cost more. Everything. They can tax it all.

And remember once they tax us, it is for good. The reason for the tax gets lost to history and the tax becomes a permanent part of our lives, forever.

I don’t know if global warming is real or not. The evidence for it looks very sketchy to me and I’m not allowed to dig into the methodology or the science. I’m just supposed to accept it.

When I see a bunch of trust fund kids turned Liberals planning to send my and everyone else’s money to international organizations to fund the fight against a phenomenon that may or may not actually exist, and those same trust fund kids will probably end up working for those international organizations once their time in government is done, I ask questions.

Is my money being spent to secure a trust fund kid a job with the UN?

Is global warming a method by which former liberal politicians keep themselves employed?

It is time to look a little closer at this.

T2 has not stopped flying his private jet around the world. That jet produces as much carbon dioxide as a family of six in Canada in a year, every time it takes off and lands.

Liberal politicians continue to globe trot in the most expensive way possible, and their carbon footprints are huge compared to mine and yours. If they are so concerned about global warming, why is their concern limited to taxing you and me and sending the money collected to international organizations that they want to work for?

There are a lot of questions. Not a lot of answers

#151 Figure it Out on 01.30.19 at 1:52 pm

“If that is the case then what we have is data to suggest that in certain spots the temperature has increased by 2 degrees. That does not mean the entire planet is warming. That means certain spots have exhibited a slight warming trend.”

Occam’s Razor says that if, on average, a random* selection of data sites are warming, then on average the whole planet is warming. *The collection of sites isn’t random — it’s places where people live, and probably ports (going way back) and airports (more recently). This is just like, duh, they collect the data for other purposes (aviation, and so your TV weathergirl has something to stand in front of) and they write it down because that’s what those types of people do.

You want to come up with a theory of how the specific places where we collect data exhibit a warming trend that doesn’t extent to elsewhere? Have at it… Urban microclimates? Vegans’ farts? Cthulhu? I go with Occam’s Razor.

… But that’s only the backward reasoning from the facts (i.e. looks like the planet is warming up). We also have forward reasoning from the theory: Greenhouse effect (CO2 absorbs IR from below, re-radiates it omnidirectionally, ergo less heat escapes into space). CO2 concentration in atmosphere increasing (measured, and we know why, because fossil fuels and chemistry), ergo greenhouse effect increasing.

I think climate change is going to seriously mess up humanity in the next century. And I think humanity is causing it. And I own a big whack of Enbridge stock. Immoral? Amoral? Whatever. Better my descendants be rich than poor, and somebody’s going to make money from it, and it might as well be me, and idiots like you are going to help.

#152 Figure it Out on 01.30.19 at 2:07 pm

“Second, also obvious; is that life carries on regardless of carbon levels. Third is that high C02 levels do not destroy the planet – they just change it.”

I’m almost certain we’ll survive as a species. But we’ve gone, in the last 5 generations or so, from where most of us were directly involved in food production, to where a small percentage of us (supported by incredible technology) do most of it.

Can Monsanto and Syngenta adapt our seeds fast enough if temperatures rise, conditions become drier, and pest profiles change? I don’t know.

#153 jess on 01.30.19 at 2:10 pm

the people took to the streets after trying to stop this special prosecutor…..

…”The questionable land deals and allegations that party officials ran an extortion and money laundering scheme came to light as part of a broad investigation that Special Prosecutor Katica Janeva and her colleagues have been pursuing for more than a year and a half. This part of the widening probe into corruption is known as Talir, named after a centuries-old silver coin.

Janeva was appointed special prosecutor by Macedonian lawmakers in 2015 after pressure from the European Union. After president Gjorge Ivanov halted probes into more than 50 public figures embroiled in a wiretapping scandal (including Nikola Gruevski), protesters took to streets in Skopje and other cities in the summer of 2016 in support of the special prosecutor, who had been working on the case.”..

The prosecutor alleged that the party illegally collected at least 4.6 million euros in a money laundering and extortion scheme, accepted illegal donations to construct its lavish “White Palace” headquarters in Skopje, and illegally purchased at least 68 other properties across the country worth 17.5 million euros in total.

The allegations are part of two indictments charging party officials — including former Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski, who fled to Hungary in November — with money laundering and abuse of their official positions. Gruevski has been convicted and other party officials charged in related cases as part of a broader government corruption probe.

https://www.occrp.org/en/investigations/macedonian-prosecutor-implicates-former-political-leaders-in-money-laundering-extortion-illicit-land-deals

..”The indictments allege a complex web of donations and deals that violate Macedonian law. Prosecutors believe Gruevski and Kiril Bozinovski, the party secretary-general, gained a disproportionate benefit for VMRO-DPMNE in the deal to construct the White Palace party headquarters, they said in a news release.

=====

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-46223909

Nov 16, 2018 – Hungary has confirmed that an ex-prime minister of Macedonia has claimed political asylum after fleeing a prison sentence for corruption.

#154 Ace Goodheart on 01.30.19 at 2:12 pm

In late 2018, 28,141 people arrived in Katowice Poland for the UN ‘s climate change summit.

Anyone wanna guess how many of these folks showed up by jet airplane (the single worst offender in carbon dioxide emissions)?

Anyone wanna guess how Al Gore got there?

Anyone know how many of these 28,141 people arrived by private jet?

How many took trips by car while they were there?

Look into it. The answers are eye opening.

This climate change conference generated a lot of CO2 (hot air?).

#155 LivinLarge on 01.30.19 at 2:13 pm

“All this time, from 6000 ppm to 170 ppm; from anoxic oceans to ice ages – life continued to progress to cumulate in the most powerful creature that has ever lived on this planet – and maybe even in the Universe (us).” more of the simplist “it was really bad before so it’s not so bad now”. Immaterial what happened 60 million years ago. How long have humans and distant ancestor species been around? A couple of million years and ONLY when climatic conditions were right. So, ignore all the ice core bubble results and focus on the here and now conditions.

Yes, without another asteroid impact were aren’t going extinct in a year but I’m not worried about that, I’m worried about feeding the billions of humans dependant on agriculture that won’t produce food due to climate changes.

2 more degrees C of average global temperature and about the only place in North America where corn will grow is near Sudbury and alas the soil there won’t support it.

So, stop bringing up 60 million years ago stats until fully formed modern homo sapiens are found to have lived then and estimates place the population at 10 billion.

#156 n1tro on 01.30.19 at 2:27 pm

#140 IHCTD9 on 01.30.19 at 12:29 pm
#117 Godth on 01.30.19 at 9:42 am

or you could go on youtube and listen to actual scientists explain it to you, like this:

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=paul+beckwith+jet+streams
_____

Just some food for thought:

Here is a Scientist. Guy McPherson is an American scientist, professor emeritus of natural resources and ecology and evolutionary biology at the University of Arizona.

He says Humans will be extinct by 2030. Extinct, as in gone forever.

Within 11 years…
——————————————
Wait a sec…is McPherson saying I just have to stay above water on my over leveraged home for just another 132 payments and I’m (I mean “we”) are good to go? YES!!!

^ Anything is “possible” doesn’t make it “probable”. Learn to know the difference and one can distinguish the science from the fiction on a lot of discussion.

#157 Honeywell on 01.30.19 at 2:39 pm

I am sitting beside my Honeywell heater in my home office apartment freezing my butt off. Send me some of this global warming now before I have to put my winter jacket on. Carbon tax is just an illusion for more taxation, so get over it, and out Al Gore instead.

#158 Godth on 01.30.19 at 2:42 pm

#146 not 1st
beyond gaslighting how about you start explaining what’s happening to scientists then. have a good look, you’ll notice there’s 145 of them over just a couple years:
Climate & Extreme Weather News #145
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W5lS_s6bETw

unlike you, i don’t think it’s all about meee.

#159 AGuyInVancouver on 01.30.19 at 2:44 pm

#133 For those about to flop…

Welcome back, your updates were missed!

#160 Shawn Allen on 01.30.19 at 2:48 pm

Stan…

I should not bother responding but Stan completely misrepresented me when he said at 79:

Like the Swan Allen guy who is announcing great success by having medium NOMINAL income increasing by less than 1 % before taxes (probably shrinks after the enhanced CPP, carbon taxes etc) while inflation roars and rents in the big cities increase by 15 % .

This was in response to where I said at 63

Canadian median wages in 2017

From statistics Canada

Something to make most of you feel good… Fodder for doomers too. Enjoy.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/190129/dq190129e-eng.htm?CMP=mstatcan

********************************
My point there , which I should have been more clear on) was that most of you readers (but maybe not Stan) could feel good because most are probably above the low median individual for tax filers in 2017 wage which was $36,980.

I said nothing about that being a good number the increase from 2016.

The doomer comment was meant for the likes of Stan and those who would compare that figure to house prices and proclaim doom.

#161 not 1st on 01.30.19 at 2:50 pm

#150 Figure it Out on 01.30.19 at 1:52 pm
—–

First of all, earth is not a greenhouse nor is it a closed system. Comparing it to a greenhouse is disingenuous. The earth gets heat and radiates heat from many sources. The bloody mantle is still hot and they suspect it transfers heat to the ocean floor. We have not modelled this correctly and in fact there is no way to accurately model a chaotic system. Our environment is intertwined with dozens of internal and external stimuli that we cannot ever hope to measure. Sending people back to the stone age isn’t going to solve anything but make us poorer. Carbon taxation is stupidity squared.

If its any consolation though, the age of oil will be over before next century. Whatever problem is perceived probably solves itself without torpedoing our economy to transfer our wealth to the 3rd world.

Why not fund a moonshot for fusion or migrate people in the north to the south so they don’t need heat. Of course not that would be a logical solution and you will never hear those ideas from the govt. Their private planes keep flying.

#162 IHCTD9 on 01.30.19 at 2:54 pm

#147 Godth on 01.30.19 at 1:45 pm
#140 IHCTD9

do i believe that humans will be extinct in 2030? it’s possible.
_____

So, if 2030 comes, and instead of a global population of 13, we instead have like 9 Billion, will you then cease giving Scientists in general gigantic slabs of credit for their predictions?

That would be a reasonable action to take no?

My guess is that 2030 will see another Billion or so of us on the planet, and Guy will revise his guesswork to 2040 for our extinction date…

#163 LivinLarge on 01.30.19 at 3:04 pm

“CN Rail – 18% dividend increase

Rub tummy”

I hope you bought your shares a while ago. CN is trading about $110 with current dividend yield of %1.65. Some banks trading in sight of that and paying a yield of over 4%. I’d go where the yield is higher and history demonstrates never having suspended or cut a dividend.

#164 LivinLarge on 01.30.19 at 3:14 pm

“Cdn banks have basically gone no where since 2011 as investments compared to the applr and Google’s of the world.”…bafflegab!!! BMO (my bank holding) has doubled its SP in that period and doubled their dividend as well.

Yes, 2011 is a bad start point since they were down maybe 50% on the SP from pre finacial crisis levels but they came back strong. The point is the big banks came back strong and always have for over 100 years.

If you had the cash and the cojones to buy heavy in about 2009-10 then you’ve doubled you SP in 8 years and getting %8-9 yield for your trouble.

#165 LivinLarge on 01.30.19 at 3:22 pm

““If that is the case then what we have is data to suggest that in certain spots the temperature has increased by 2 degrees. That does not mean the entire planet is warming. That means certain spots have exhibited a slight warming trend.”

Occam’s Razor says that if, on average, a random* selection of data sites are warming, then on average the whole planet is warming. *The collection of sites isn’t random — it’s places where people live, and probably ports (going way back) and airports (more recently). This is just like, duh, they collect the data for other purposes (aviation, and so your TV weathergirl has something to stand in front of) and they write it down because that’s what those types of people do.”…wow more bafflegab.

First, climatologists report mean or average global temperature changes and a 2C mean is rather huge rather than slight.

Second, The Principal of Parsimony AKA Occam’s Razor basically states that when presented with more than one solution to a problem, the solution with the fewest calculation steps is most often the correct solution. Basically, “keep the solution simple”.

#166 n1tro on 01.30.19 at 3:31 pm

#150 Figure it Out on 01.30.19 at 1:52 pm

Occam’s Razor says that if, on average, a random* selection of data sites are warming, then on average the whole planet is warming. *The collection of sites isn’t random — it’s places where people live, and probably ports (going way back) and airports (more recently). This is just like, duh, they collect the data for other purposes (aviation, and so your TV weathergirl has something to stand in front of) and they write it down because that’s what those types of people do.
—————————–
Occam’s razor isn’t quite what you stated. It is a principle in philosophy that is used when there are 2 explanations and deduces a connection to an answer without any proof based on common logic. It can’t be used as a scientific basis that weather stations reporting higher temps means the world temp is rising. That kind of deduction is left to the statisticians.

#167 Godth on 01.30.19 at 3:44 pm

#161 IHCTD9
i’ll go with predictions, by scientists, based on extrapolations of what is occurring now rather than your guesswork – thanks anyway.
https://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/114741/collapse-already-here
maybe i’ll take a cruise down the rhine and think about it. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-18/europe-s-most-important-river-is-running-dry
…or not.

#168 Entrepreneur on 01.30.19 at 3:44 pm

House prices bubbled here on Vancouver Island too, ruined lives, one way or the other. The buyers here bought, are staying here just enough to flip as before. What neighbours, neighbours now only have $ signs in their eyes and walk all over you to increase their property value. They cannot afford the basics but ask us for help, then move away with $$$ smiles

In the newspaper the gaming industry allotted funds to organizations. What happened to the small businesses, isn’t that how communities suppose to work? If you don’t understand, you do not understand how important small businesses are.

As for the Climate Change deniers (I do not like the words Climate Change) because the weather is only part of the problem. It is the result of our mess we created. We should call it “Destructors of Earth” or how about “Earth Movers” because of right now you know better, Not.

So far in our political elections coming up it seems to me it is more like political parties trying to win and not much about Canadians. And why hasn’t T2 addressed BC’s money laundering problem? And if and when, full of excuses.

#169 bdwy sktrn on 01.30.19 at 3:45 pm

2 more degrees C of average global temperature and about the only place in North America where corn will grow is near Sudbury and alas the soil there won’t support it.
——————–
you wim dumbest comment on the internet today.
congrats.

virtually ALL corn is grown is far warmer climates than canada.
yo can drive for days in mexico and see not much but corn.
mexico produces far more corn than canada.

just wow. but 100% typical of climate alarmist, science illiterate , green fool.

1 United States of America 313,948,610 35.5
2 China, mainland 192,781,000 21.8
3 Brazil 55,660,415 6.3
4 Argentina 23,799,830 2.7
5 Ukraine 22,837,900 2.6
6 India 21,760,000 2.5
7 Mexico 17,635,417 2.0
8 Indonesia 17,629,033 2.0
9 France 15,913,300 1.8
10 Romania 11,717,591 1.3
11 Canada 10,688,700 1.2
12 South Africa 10,360,000

#170 Shawn Allen on 01.30.19 at 3:47 pm

CN Rail versus the Banks

#162 LivinLarge on 01.30.19 at 3:04 pm
“CN Rail – 18% dividend increase

Rub tummy”

I hope you bought your shares a while ago. CN is trading about $110 with current dividend yield of %1.65. Some banks trading in sight of that and paying a yield of over 4%. I’d go where the yield is higher and history demonstrates never having suspended or cut a dividend.

******************************
I thought of JSS when that 18% announcement came out. He has been rubbing his tummy with his documented diversified dividend strategy on this site for at least several years.

As for the long term. I have personally been following CN continuously since August 27, 1999 when it traded at a split-adjusted $8.08 when to be honest it looked a bit expensive as if often does. The new annual dividend is $2.148 per year. The stock is up 1265% in that time period of almost 20 years.

Bill Gates has been CN’s largest shareholder for I believe over 20 years.

JSS also holds the banks.

Neither Bill Gates nor JSS likely needs your advice. I mean it’s fine to give advice but you might want to know a bit more about JSS’s record.

A high dividend yield is neither a necessary nor a sufficient condition to lead to a good long term return.

#171 yorkville renter on 01.30.19 at 4:04 pm

#153 – how else does someone get from North America to Poland? sailboat?

Maybe we should cap jet emissions… and Boeing will be forced to figure it out?

#172 Lee on 01.30.19 at 4:15 pm

#150,

If JT doesn’t build another pipeline Enbridge and TRP will go to the moon.

#173 Where's The Money Greedeau? on 01.30.19 at 4:26 pm

Forgot to mention Aug. 4, 2014 is the 5 year window for charges to be laid in BC’s Mount Polley dam failure/disaster, the biggest anywhere in the world in the past 50 years, it was stated in the following column.
They already got around a lot of charges because the BC Liberals were the ruling party at the time and you have to know the connections to Imperial Metals owner and then BC Premier Christy Clark: http://www.vancouversun.com/business/editorial+mining+company+cash+politicians+leaves+stench/10120740/story.html
http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Major+Imperial+Metals+shareholder+held+private+fundraiser+Clark+election/10102715/story.html
Present BC Premier John Horgan seems to be doing zilch in this regard also, hoping it all just goes away so he can waddle up to Murray Edwards, the majority shareholder of Imperial Metals.
Murray Edwards, co-owner of the Calgary Flames has been trying every which way since he ran to the UK right after the disaster to shake down Calgarians to pick up the tab for a new hockey rink. It even went to referendum and he lost, but he still persists to pick Calgary’s pocket on the threat to leave somewhere, he’s just not saying where.
Christy Clark is now embedded in Calgary, sitting on the board of Shaw Communications, not showing her face in BC after the disaster she left BC in.
Birds of a feather…
Drain the swamp!!!

#174 Biddy on 01.30.19 at 4:30 pm

Save your keyboards. Trying to reason with a Climatist is like trying to introduce reason to a Godist or F3minist. (ie: utterly, grimly pointless).

People confuse the scientific method with the results of scientists (mis)using that method.

The scientific method is one of humanity’s greatest achievements. But scientists that misuse the method, skew the data, get paid to forward an agenda – they’re the problem. They are why people rightly doubt or mistrust the so-called science of so-called climate change.

And if non-scientist, simple minded folks like me and so many others can rightly point out that the narrative of and evidence for so-called human-caused climate change has holes in it big enough to drive a gas-guzzling SUV through, well, what does that say about the science?

If the earth warms, more plants will grow.
If sea levels rise, we’ll migrate inland.
If forests turn to deserts, deserts will turn to forests.
If oil runs out, we’ll use another source or carbon.

A simple 2-part question for Climatists to ponder: why are those scenarios so frightening to you, and how will taxing some 36 million people out of 6-9 billion help?

Exactly.

I’m not asking any Climatists to abandon their beliefs and zealotry, but at least admit you are a member of a very anti-science religion, and much like the f3minists, your narrow-minded and quite Marxist world view shouldn’t be forced on others, least of all with a tax.

Legislating something doesn’t make it true, or moral, or right.

Oh, and #MAGA

#175 Godth on 01.30.19 at 5:47 pm

#175 Figure it Out
i’d mention that we’re at 500 ppm when all greenhouse gases are accounted for; or that co2 has a 10 yr. max. warming lag, meaning today’s emissions won’t be in full effect for ten years; or the aerosol masking effect but i don’t think fox news, watt’s up with that or exxon has prepared the talking points yet.

#156 n1tro
it’s inevitable that we’ll go extinct. it’s extremely probable within two decades. it’s possible within a decade. that last doubling in an exponential function…
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S187661021830136X
https://truthout.org/articles/release-of-arctic-methane-may-be-apocalyptic-study-warns/

#176 LivinLarge on 01.30.19 at 6:38 pm

“If the earth warms, more plants will grow.”…OMG more and more bafflegab!!!

Another poster who has nooooo idea how crops grow.

I’ll try again. Every crop has a band of temperatures where it can be grown successfully. If you doubt me then look at the back if any seed packet for the “zone” rating and then search for what the zones mean.

As global temperatures rise, the zone for each crop moves and changes geographically. If something like corn or cotton no longer will grow successfully and profitably that doesn’t mean that the farmers can just start growing mangoes.

#177 acdel on 01.30.19 at 9:13 pm

FYI
Nov. 2018, I read… Using radar able to penetrate approximately two miles below Antarctica’s surface, scientists from the British Antarctic Survey found radioactive rocks and hot water spurting from inside Earth’s crust is contributing to the Antarctica’s West Subsurface melting…. the silence since has been deafening.. I WONDER WHY ?

#178 Biddy on 01.31.19 at 1:40 am

#178 LivinLarge

Um, you might be trying to intentionally mislead, I’m not sure. Either way, if you think one needs uncommon sense or a degree in agriculture to know that (now hold onto your seat) crops move with climate, then you are yet another…Climatist.

Forests migrate. Deserts migrate. Humans migrate. And guess what: crops migrate.

Yup.

If you can no longer grow one crop in one zone, what makes you think you won’t be able to grow the same crop in another zone?

This is the root of the seeds of doubt (pun intended) Climatists sow. Being elitist, you think people can’t reason that even if the climate zone around the equator expands, triples, quadruples, whatever, that the other climactic zones won’t also expand, grow or retract?

Of course they will. (Never mind that humans can irrigate, and genetically alter seeds to grow in any rapidly changing environments, which is why half the shizz we plant in Canada actually grows.)

If the day comes when we can not longer grow as many grapes in California because it’s become a barren desert, we’ll be able to grow them in the Yukon, for example.

Does the climate change narrative only work when it’s alarmist? Plenty of good things happen when the climate warms. And yet…silence from the alarmists.

This entire argument (mine) ignores the fact that the only true impact of the planets unending climate gyrations is potential change.

And the root motivation of all Climatists, every single one of you, is fear of change.

Nothing more.

I mean, you’re winning of course. Fear = taxation and control. So it goes.

But that doesn’t make any of the Climatist drivel that’s spouted here or elsewhere true.

#179 Holly on 01.31.19 at 2:03 pm

Might be time to inform your loyal flock the truth about banks… it’s not Granny’s savings they use to fund that mortgage loan.
No it’s the Money Tree T2 awards them when they are chartered… yes, they get to make up that million dollar mortgage and charge you interest on all of it… and yes, they also get most all THEIR money (the interest) in the first five years (and of course YOU build no equity as you must wait until MR Global gets his money… 1st things first)…
Go ahead, they can take it… tell them!