Not fake

Earlier this week a poll claimed 46% of Canadians are less than $200 from financial insolvency at the end of each month. Some critics scoffed. Fake news, they said. One cell bill from oblivion? Absurd.

But there was more. The Ipsos survey results included this: a third of respondents said they routinely cannot pay monthly bills and 45% stated they’ll have to take on more debt to pay family expenses. This came around the same time as a new federal government study showed households are paying nothing on $100 billion in home equity loans. In addition, the Canadian Payroll Association claims 40% of people are overwhelmed by their debts and 47% would have a cow if they missed one paycheque.

In fact, a steady stream of similar reports, polls, surveys and studies have been published in the last three years. Personal and family debt during this time has reached an historic high. As reported here a few days ago, between July and November families added more than $17 billion in new mortgage debt, bringing the total to $1.54 trillion – or $1,540,000,000,000. The average mortgage debt, HELOC debt, car loan debt and student debt have all increased in the last few years. And (to restate an important fact) income gains are trailing inflation (1.4% vs 2%).

Is this all fake news? If not, why are no leaders, politicians, bank CEOs or chief economists talking about it? After all, it sounds like a disaster in the making. If families are so stretched, how can they possibly survive the next inevitable economic downturn?

The answer (if it’s remotely true): they can’t. In fact the next mess may be inevitable exactly because of what people have done to themselves.

You will recall we handled  the GFC of 2008-9 in a different way than the US. There the federal government spend a few trillion bailing out institutions and over-leveraged homeowners. In Canada the government dropped mortgage rates to insane levels, and stood back. Hormones and house lust did the rest. As rates plunged, buying surged, house prices escalated wildly and family debt flew off the chart. But all that spending saved the GDP.

Now here we are, on the far side of the mountain. We blew the wad. Big houses. Big debt. The savings rate sitting lower than a dachshund’s package. Half of us say if interest rates edge up any more (they will) financial trouble will follow. And that’s not even with the job losses a recession would inevitably herald. Meanwhile central banks have been struggling to break our worse-than-crack dependency on cheap loans.

Among those worried about this is TD’s chief economist. Beata Caranci said it a few months ago: “Past 2020 it’s really going to hit the fan. At that point you have high level of indebtedness combined with income stress happening simultaneously. So we are definitely not out of the woods.” So, the next rough patch will not be solved by consumers, the way the last one way. Instead it will be “a household-led recession.”

That means, pickled in debt, struggling to make the monthlies and, yeah, two hundred bucks from the cliff’s edge, families no longer have the capacity to rescue the economy. As for the Bank of Canada, it’s been a tough slog to raise rates four times when the Fed has increased on nine occasions. So in the next downturn, interest rates can only retrace a relatively short distance. That big bag of stimulus central bankers had to sprinkle over everything in 2009 isn’t there.

By the way, 2020 is the year of the next presidential election. There may be no good outcome for that event.

Most at risk are those in debt. Job loss and economic downturn are your enemies. The best course of action in 2019 is to change your life. If that means dumping the mortgage along with the house, so be it. Trash the HELOC. And, for the love of Allah, stop borrowing.

Also be careful when investing. Rebalance to take profits and de-risk. Embrace a balanced approach so you have fixed-income assets to offset inevitable equity volatility. Be wary of weed and FAANGs. Use some of the tactics laid out on this blog in recent weeks to drop your tax profile. After all, it’s not what you make, but what you keep. It’s also time to up your cash a little. Unless you have millions already, stay invested. Never exit an asset class since you have no idea what’s coming. Yes, ignore the noise.

About the picture:

Weeks ago we had a dog day here. One picture was of Sonnyboy and James Dougall, in his final months. Mr. Dougall has now passed.

His daughter writes: “Thank you so very much for your kind and comforting words regarding the death of my beautiful father. We were privileged to have looked after him for his last 5 years. The bond between Dad and I was/is so eternally strong. The loss is indescribable, and Jack and I and Sonnyboy are shocked and surprised by the physical toll that grief brings. Sonny is still depressed and constantly gazing at the front door. I am enclosing a couple of pictures. Sonnyboy looking after his grandpa in his last days. What would we do without dogs?  My thought for the day: with love comes pain.”

123 comments ↓

#1 David on 01.24.19 at 4:52 pm

and out of the fiction section of the book store comes the latest Will Dunning MPC “brokers need to finance large bimmers too” blabber about how government has spoiled the party. These steps taken over the past several years to reduce insane levels of debt are, in the words of our brokers, well, insane and misdirected. So get out there and use your broker in your next mortgage transaction: they might even zero out your student loans in your application if you give them a smile…

#2 Stan Brooks on 01.24.19 at 4:53 pm

Government will set sweat shops for new ‘skilled’ immigrants in rural areas.


https://ca.news.yahoo.com/hussen-unveils-plan-attract-retain-153056439.html

The federal government will work directly with communities and with groups that help newcomers with employment, language training and other social assistance.

For the supposedly ‘skilled’ immigrants.

Sigh. Deeper Sigh. Deepest sigh.

Somebody just broke the dumb-o-meter.

I have an idea: Let’s give them each 2 millions, insured by CHMC to buy a house, it is not fare for house prices in rural Canada to stay low.

#3 Shawn Allen on 01.24.19 at 4:57 pm

New Debt Can Hide a Multitude of Sins

a third of respondents said they routinely cannot pay monthly bills and 45% stated they’ll have to take on more debt to pay family expenses.

**********************************
No one needs to be late on their bills as long as they have access to borrow new money to pay old debt and bills.

This puts the banks in a bad position. Keep on lending so that everyone can stay current on bills and defaults are low and all looks good but which may be pushing a giant boulder further up a hill which can’t go on forever, or cut off the credit taps and trigger an immediate tsunami of defaults.

I suspect the credit keeps flowing.

Oh well, is using debt to pay family expenses a bad thing? It has been going on forever, just bigger now.

Keep an eye on default rates… credit cards are among the first hit…

#4 not 1st on 01.24.19 at 4:59 pm

Trudeaus carbon tax is supposed to add about $200 a month to peoples bills. Perfect.

There is always kidney donation.

#5 Moses71 on 01.24.19 at 5:13 pm

So Trump is is too smart and unstoppable, so he’ll get re-elected. So will baby-faced Trudeau as anything he does is forgiven.
Trump calls bluffs and pretends to sway then wroks it out.
It’s only business, nothing personal..

#6 Guy in Calgary on 01.24.19 at 5:18 pm

From the article:

46% of Canadians on the brink of insolvency as rates rise: Survey

46% of Canadians near insolvency: poll

Nearly half of Canadians just $200 away from insolvency: Study

Source of the survey was MNP Ltd. They are a BK/consumer proposal trustee…. so perhaps there is a little bit of bias present…

Only one of several sources cited. – Garth

#7 marcus on 01.24.19 at 5:19 pm

For the love of Allah? Converted did you? Must be planning a political run again. LOL!

#8 jess on 01.24.19 at 5:21 pm

An elderly man was swindled out of HK$580 million (US$74 million) over two years, sources told the Post, as police on Thursday announced the arrest of 14 people over Hong Kong’s biggest ever bullion trading scam.

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/law-and-crime/article/2183502/fourteen-members-fraud-syndicate-arrested-hong-kongs

#9 Andrewski on 01.24.19 at 5:24 pm

Why is it so difficult for people to live below their means?!

#10 Penny Henny on 01.24.19 at 5:31 pm

The first time I lost was in 1993 when the Progressive Conservative party, which I had run to be leader of, was decimated.-GT
//////////////////

Sorry for being a day late (and a dollar short no doubt).
To Garth, if you wanted to be the leader of a federal party you should have ran for the NDP. They are the only ones accepting of facial hair.

You’re welcome.

#11 yorkville renter on 01.24.19 at 5:36 pm

#9 – because their means are low to begin with.

#12 Oakville is Dirty on 01.24.19 at 5:37 pm

The blame goes to Bank of Canada!…and Trudeau Senior .

Canada should be borrowing money from Canada! See article below for history.

http://prudentpress.com/finance/history-bank-of-canada/

#13 Howard on 01.24.19 at 5:39 pm

This independent journalist goes into detail about the Liberal Party’s dealings with certain shady characters.

https://freethepresscanada.org/2018/03/22/pm-trudeaus-cousin-exposes-metoo-scandal-involving-liberalist-data/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Of particular interest, did you know that Justin Trudeau’s roommate from his Vancouver days, Christopher Ingvaldson, is a convicted child porn addict, and that he once aspired to be a Liberal candidate? This is all on the public record but has been ignored by the mainstream media. https://archive.is/sQqfd

Anyone still planning to vote Liberal?

#14 Debtslavecreator on 01.24.19 at 5:49 pm

Perfect setup for an eventual radical LEFT wing government to come in by 2025-2030 and steal whatever little “wealth” remains
Yet for 99% of these dumb people who CHOSE out of their own free will to engage in reckless financial choices, they’ll blame everyone but themselves
Good luck to the minority of us lucky and smart enough to have acted prudently
Hollywood could not have created a movie with a more diabolical plot for a movie about a great economic crisis
Oh wait see below – very relevant for many Canadians – a glimpse into your life over the next 2-3 years

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=YbuiJi52w9c

#15 espressobob on 01.24.19 at 5:52 pm

Financial illiteracy is proving to be commonplace in society these days. Where did we take the wrong step?

Maybe our animal companions have more foresight on this matter than we realize.

#16 Reality is stark on 01.24.19 at 5:58 pm

The economy in Canada has been running on smoke and mirrors for a decade.
People in the GTA have been borrowing against fake house wealth to keep a fake lifestyle.
When the divorce occurs blame yourself. You didn’t have to buy into that lifestyle. You should have learned to say “No”.
People in this country believe that taxes will now be the new answer to provide for their “needs”. They’ll get your money somehow.
To be Canadian is to find out what other people owe you.

#17 Muslim Millennial in GTA on 01.24.19 at 5:59 pm

Had to leave a comment due to this hilarious line, “And, for the love of Allah, stop borrowing.”

23 year old Muslim Millennial in the GTA, I can see the problem literally around me including my own family. Typical keeping up with the joneses mentality. Spend everything you got on stuff you don’t need to impress people you don’t like. And if you don’t have enough then continue to borrow insane amounts until you get enough dopamine through FB and Instagram likes to satisfy your ego. It’s gonna stop!

#18 enarhem on 01.24.19 at 5:59 pm

A touching photo indeed. Thanks for that.

#19 Peter on 01.24.19 at 6:02 pm

Garth your advice (which I agree with) is to stay diversified and balanced. But a 60/40 portfolio that is 20% preferred shares? Wouldn’t that be hit hard by a Maple recession that impacts banks and consumers as much of those stocks are financials?

#20 not 1st on 01.24.19 at 6:04 pm

#9 Andrewski on 01.24.19 at 5:24 pm

Why is it so difficult for people to live below their means?!
—–

The average household wage in Canada is about $75,000. Lets round it up to a $100k for those working hard to join the middle class as Trudeau says.

Income taxes – $30k
Mortgage and property tax, say $2000 per month in most cities
Monthly groceries and utilities – say $1000 cause you eat cheap
No entertainment expense cause you like net flix.
Got kids, well two people working need a baby sitter. Say $750 a month cheap daycare. Leave a bit for emergencies etc. say $5000. Plus you need a car, $500 per month. No vacation, no eating out, no activies for the kids no shopping for the wife.

Lets add;
$100,000
-30,000 taxes
-24,000 mortgage and property tax
-12,000 utilities and groceries
-9,000 nanny
-5,000 emerg
-6,000 car
= $14,000

Now to take advantage of RSP, RESPs TFSAs all that, you need another $30k in before tax income. Where does it come from. Guess your night job.

#21 expat on 01.24.19 at 6:06 pm

One can stand in front of a bus or one can stand in the bus shelter and watch everyone else get run over.

It’s all choice

As I stated earlier – stock markets are forward looking and its looking really ugly with the reporting of quarterly earnings so far.

#22 Jeff Bush on 01.24.19 at 6:06 pm

Overnight rates should never be lower than 3%. Emergency interest rates make a mockery of borrowing. Borrowing money must cost money! Below 3% the Bank of Canada should use monetary easing or helicopter money to stimulate the economy.

#23 The Real Mark on 01.24.19 at 6:11 pm

Sounds like a recipe for a very high currency and significant deflation. What ‘industry’ in Canada is actually doing well? Traditionally when there’s a significant amount of deflation, the precious metals mining sector does well. But realistically, how many Canadians are actually involved with such, either as workers or investors? Very few.

Therefore it logically follows that the Bank of Canada is likely to be forced to go on a significant stimulus and interest rate cutting program. Probably into negative rates this time around. Simply to keep the economy from systemically imploding and the value of the CAD$ reasonable.

Those who are over-leveraged are going to find it incredibly hard to pay back their loans, which will face increasingly significant risk premia, with more expensive/scarce Canadian dollars. Every dollar of CAD$ that has been borrowed, is a dollar of CAD$ that eventually must be repaid. Instead of house price appreciation being a tailwind to creditworthiness of bank credit portfolios across the board, house price depreciation will be a secular headwind.

Some rough times ahead for the irresponsible with credit indeed. But also for many who rationally thought they were building businesses to serve demand that arose due to widespread excessive use of credit. A lot of rather innocent people, despite being operationally efficient business owners, are going to be caught up in the mess of a likely collapse in debt-fueled consumer demand.

#24 JonBoy on 01.24.19 at 6:20 pm

I’ve been thinking about this very thing for a while. It seems to me that the general consensus on this blog (most of the time) has been that tax breaks and a roaring economy are going to keep pushing the markets higher and that losses from last year will be recovered and then new profits will come about after a slight “adjustment”.

What seems to be forgotten (until today) is that you only get growth and higher profits if people are actually spending money. Seeing the insane increase in debt, combined with higher interest rates, means that people are going to have less and less money to spend. In the USA, they’re doing far better than in Canada but our Canadian economy is propped up on false markers that mask the idea that people are essentially BEYOND broke.

How the heck is the economy going to grow when so much of the population is in debt and running out of actual debt availability (HELOC, credit cards, etc)? It can only continue for so long before the house of (credit) cards (pardon the pun) comes falling down.

They’re saying “1.7% GDP growth for Canada in 2019” and I think we’ll be lucky to hit 1%, given the storm brewing over the last few years, and that will only be due to vultures (I may be one of them) swooping in to cash in on some great deals…

I love cars and I love great deals and I’m seeing absolutely rock bottom prices for both new and used vehicles these days. I’m talking 30% lower than last year for used vehicles that usually have very high demand. As others have pointed out, auto sales are a great marker for general consumer spending and the word on the street is, sales are down, down, down. We’ll see when the numbers come out for January.

#25 saskatoon on 01.24.19 at 6:21 pm

garth,

i think that you are mistaken here:

canadian banks WERE bailed out during the GFC…

they were bailed out by the FED.

#26 avocado latte on 01.24.19 at 6:23 pm

Hi Garth,

Can you comment on “never exit an asset class”, but at the same time as be wary of fang+weed stocks (and potentially extrapolating the nasdaq 100?). By that logic, does it make sense to still keep some exposure, but just trim it?

They are sectors, not asset classes. – Garth

#27 Bill Grable on 01.24.19 at 6:30 pm

The Dog picture today, speaks volumes about you, Mr. Turner.

Ms. Dougall – please accept sincere condolences, on the loss of your Father.

Give Sunnyboy a hug from Julie and I.

We have cats, and we feel like they are the light, in our lives, in many ways.

Yes, with Love comes Pain. BUT, you have a lot of people sending you LOVE tonight…

#28 Penny Henny on 01.24.19 at 6:30 pm

If 2020 is going to suck, investment wise, shouldn’t people grab some awesome 3%+ gic’s now and ride out the storm. I can manage quite well with a 3% return for two or three years and jump back in when things are cheap.
Also, to note, I have delusional expectations of picking the peak or the bottom of the market.
And before you say it “Well maybe if you can’t stand the heat get out of the kitchen” (or something to that effect.

#29 Brian Ripley on 01.24.19 at 6:35 pm

If you don’t have sufficient income, your debt is an emotional drag.

I have updated my Demographia charts with the 2018 data
http://www.chpc.biz/demographia.html

Toronto’s unaffordability Y/Y metric is still rising; Vancouver’s stopped.

Vancouver ranks 1st out of 50 Canadian cities most unaffordable in Canada and 2nd out of 308 world markets after Hong Kong.

2nd is Victoria
3rd is Toronto
Last and most affordable is Cape Breton.

See the charts for all 50 Canadian Cities.

#30 Paul on 01.24.19 at 6:35 pm

” You will recall we handled the GFC of 2008-9 in a different way than the US. There the federal government spend a few trillion bailing out institutions and over-leveraged homeowners. In Canada the government dropped mortgage rates to insane levels, and stood back.”

The Harper government stepped in and used a number of measures to free up money for Canada’s banks during the financial crisis — including buying mortgage-backed securities and providing short-term loans.

All told, the study counts $114-billion worth of guarantees and financial aid for Canada’s big banks from October 2008 to July 2010 by the Bank of Canada, the United States Federal Reserve, and the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.

#31 Dolce Vita on 01.24.19 at 6:39 pm

One way of the other, Mr. Consumer decides the fate of the economy.

This article and chart from BMO (Doug Porter, Economist, Internal Memo shared by Steve Saretsky on Twitter) shows Mr. Consumer putting the brakes on

Retail Sales Volume & Real Household Consumption (rate of change):

https://i.imgur.com/K7hRIMU.jpg

TD is correct but the consumer-led recession will come earlier (of course they wishful think 2020 and/or try to manipulate “kick the can down the road” thinking with that pronouncement).

That rate of change chart looks like the plunge after 2007, where we were in “it”.

Looks like Mr. Consumer has already decided.

#32 not 1st on 01.24.19 at 6:39 pm

I don’t always agree with Garth, but if you don’t have some portion of your wealth compounding monthly hard, you are losing big time to expenses, inflation, cost of living, taxes and stealth taxes. Its the only way to stay ahead and far too few people doing it.

#33 Big Bucks on 01.24.19 at 6:44 pm

Will the carbon tax(which is likely to increase every year) not be inflationary?With runaway inflation rates will have to go up(probably a lot)—that should really do a number on the debt situation with individuals and governments.

#34 Ken from BC on 01.24.19 at 6:45 pm

-1.54 trillion seconds ago, Toronto was under a 3 km thick ice sheet

-1.54 trillion minutes ago, no people were causing climate change (recognizable humans emerged at most 600 billion minutes ago)

-1.54 trillion days ago, the earth had just formed

#35 akashic record on 01.24.19 at 6:53 pm

What is the average wage of this group?

#36 young & foolish on 01.24.19 at 6:54 pm

Move over Trumpsters …. and make room for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and the new big spending left!

#37 mike from mtl on 01.24.19 at 6:56 pm

They are sectors, not asset classes. – Garth
//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

You’ll bite back… what about CA preferreds? I am getting rather tired of throwing cash into that black hole. 5 years I might as well have invested in Bank of Sealy. They’re not safe at all, and total return is terrible.

Also the spread between US10yr and CA10yr is pretty unusual over the last month or two. Seems rates are not going up for a while yet?

#38 yvrguy on 01.24.19 at 7:01 pm

#37 mike from mtl on 01.24.19 at 6:56 pm

5 years I might as well have invested in Bank of Sealy. They’re not safe at all, and total return is terrible.

////////////////

agreed, they’re garbage. once HPR hits parity, dumping them for HAB or more ZAG.

#39 Dolce Vita on 01.24.19 at 7:02 pm

Forgot to mention on BMO Porter’s chart for Retail Sales (blue line, my post #31):

Cdn. Christmas Retail Sales 2018 vs. 2019:

-0.8%

So that last upward blip to 0, went down below the 0, again.

Face up to it folks, we are in it and Garth’s data not only corroborates Porter’s chart in spades but also provides the “other 1/2” of a recession:

Doom & Gloom Psychology

from more than 1 source as Garth says.

This is not good, for any of us, not good one iota.

#40 akashic record on 01.24.19 at 7:14 pm

#34 Ken from BC

These trillions are nothing compared to the debt trillions.

#41 acdel on 01.24.19 at 7:17 pm

Mr. Dougall; R.I.P!

#42 Barb on 01.24.19 at 7:23 pm

Condolences on the loss of your Dad, James Dougall.
What a gift you gave him by having him stay with you in his last 5 years.

And a hug for Sonnyboy…that’s such a poignant and loving photo.

#43 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.24.19 at 7:23 pm

@#9 Howard.

O..M..G!

A long forgotten room mate turns out to be a pervert and anyone associated with him is “tainted”?
Give your head a shake.

#44 JM on 01.24.19 at 7:31 pm

Meanwhile…35k employees at the office ordered Bubble Tea via Uber Eats at the office today. $27.00 for three. Had me thinking…

#45 MoneySense & Kawhi Agree, Oakville is Best on 01.24.19 at 7:34 pm

What a beautiful picture! Proof that only death can separate a boy from his dog and even that is just temporary. Thanks for sharing.

#46 Stone on 01.24.19 at 7:40 pm

Did Pattie just crush Ryan on BNN today?

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/home-ownership-not-an-entitlement-pattie-lovett-reid~1594237

Had it been me instead of Ryan sitting there, I would have just nodded my head and said that I agree wholeheartedly with her. No ifs, ands, or buts.

#47 PastThePeak on 01.24.19 at 7:51 pm

#43 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.24.19 at 7:23 pm
@#9 Howard.
O..M..G!

A long forgotten room mate turns out to be a pervert and anyone associated with him is “tainted”?
Give your head a shake.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

I agree that it makes no sense to associate a roommate with a person’s character.

…but do you agree, that if the person was Andrew Scheer or Maxime Bernier, that it would get a lot of press coverage…

#48 PastThePeak on 01.24.19 at 8:01 pm

#37 mike from mtl on 01.24.19 at 6:56 pm

You’ll bite back… what about CA preferreds? I am getting rather tired of throwing cash into that black hole. 5 years I might as well have invested in Bank of Sealy. They’re not safe at all, and total return is terrible.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

My approach and experience regarding CA preferreds:
– I use them in my non-reg portfolio for the dividends, and do not count on them for any capital growth. They are my “bonds” (I also have a bond fund in my RRSP)
– [Against Garth’s advice] I purchase the shares directly, and get much better yields, many over 6-7% recently
– I focus (bulk of) my purchases periodically when the values drop significantly – like back in Nov/Dec, and previously a few years ago. I am purchasing some in between, but looking for reasonable prices
– I use the dividends to purchase other shares, whether more preferreds or more dividend growth stocks, depending on whats going on.

More concentrated (and possibly risky), yes, but you choose different companies, sectors, not choosing companies with any concern of financial troubles, and purchase when discounted from the $25 issue price.

#49 Smoking Man on 01.24.19 at 8:05 pm

Sorry about your dad.

My motto. Have has much fun as you can while your here, don’t worry about the future too much. None of us know when we will hit the best before date. Have no regrets.

#50 Raging Ranter on 01.24.19 at 8:14 pm

#6 Guy in Calgary, the insolvency professionals are always the first in line to see the damage debt is doing. When they start warning us, we’d best listen. When you’re in the insolvency trade, broke debtors are good for business. If insolvency professionals start fretting about business being too good, then we should fret too.

#51 Mike on 01.24.19 at 8:17 pm

.
Everything ok in Van(money laundering)couver.

People have HELOCs and bought condos, and 2nd rental properties.

Everyone is flush with drug laundered $1B/year(per RCMP) trickled down to masses.

#52 AGuyInVancouver on 01.24.19 at 8:24 pm

I see Canada’s “mortgage professionals”, cough, cough, are moaning about the stress test again. Lamenting it has led to Canada’s 11% homes sales decline in 2018.
https://business.financialpost.com/real-estate/haider-moranis-bulletin-why-the-government-should-rethink-the-mortgage-stress-test

Funny thing though, the real estate market in the USA was down about 10% in home sales in 2018. Without stress tests, Foreign Buyers taxes etc. Maybe it is all just a function of good, ol’ fashioned interest rates after all!

#53 PastThePeak on 01.24.19 at 8:24 pm

#22 Jeff Bush on 01.24.19 at 6:06 pm
Overnight rates should never be lower than 3%. Emergency interest rates make a mockery of borrowing. Borrowing money must cost money! Below 3% the Bank of Canada should use monetary easing or helicopter money to stimulate the economy.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

I am with you mostly. I think 2% is a more reasonable lowest rate (3-4% was more considered neutral prior to 2008/9). To be a bit fair to the BoC in the last recession, with the US Fed dropping the bottom out, they had to follow somewhat as well, or have a punishingly high loonie. While I don’t care for Carney’s personality, he was prudent to stop at 1% when the US went to basically 0%. So you are right, but the problem was Ben Bernanke.

Lowering the interest rates is (from my readings over the years) supposed to target increased “investment”, which would lead to improvements in the economy. In a business case of such investment, below a certain point, a lower interest has minimal effect on the economics for a solid plan. Lower rates not needed to spur additional investment when it is “real” investment – something for the business to grow.

Ultra low rates though simply distort risk and a proper valuation of money/debt. We have seen its results all around the last decade, and Canada is eventually going to have to deleverage (and it will be painful, so no politician wants it to happen on their watch).

#54 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.24.19 at 8:33 pm

Geez,
tough times for real estate developers……

https://www.vancourier.com/reported-mobster-and-real-estate-developer-shot-dead-in-montreal-1.23611298

And here I thought Montreal had avoided “the bubble”.

#55 Robert Ash on 01.24.19 at 8:37 pm

Question for the Blog Dogs.. What should a future Lottery winner, of 2 Million dollars do with their Canadian Winnings, today ? Hey Garth can you elaborate on your comment, …” Unless you have millions already, stay invested. ” I would appreciate,to learn, if you are suggesting, if you have a windfall income, you might be best to sit it out for a while… It would be great to have your feedback..

#56 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.24.19 at 8:40 pm

@#47 past the peak
“….if the person was Andrew Scheer or Maxime Bernier, that it would get a lot of press coverage…”

+++++

Possibly , but I still dont see why anyone would associate having a room mate in post secondary school 20-30 years ago …who turns out to be a total freak….should reflect on the person who lived with them.
Most school room mates are assigned by the school are they not?
Its not like Trudeau, or Scheer or Bernier would have had a choice as to their room mates when they were barely out of their teens.
A non issue in my book.
Trudeau has far more interesting faux pas today than a long lost roomy that turned out to be a sick freak.

#57 Nonplused on 01.24.19 at 8:41 pm

A well raised dog is like a well raised child. You’ll be glad you put in the extra time and weren’t mean or abusive to them.

As for the topic of the day, I think the difference between 1982 and today is that people had today more reserves in the form of savings or equity than in 1982, expecting a repeat. The problem is this time it’s been going on 10 years and people can only hold out so long.

#58 luckySoB on 01.24.19 at 8:46 pm

And what if you do have millions already?

#59 Blacksheep on 01.24.19 at 9:01 pm

Y&F # 36,

“Move over Trumpsters …. and make room for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and the new big spending left!”
——————————-
Why does A.O.C. want to change the tax rate to 70% on the mega wealth earners?

Don’t be fooled.

She is a false profit…pandering to the ignorant.

#60 Economystic on 01.24.19 at 9:03 pm

Garth, you are looking at it all wrong. You say “many people are only $200/month away from some sort of calamity”. View it through the “economystic” lens. Properly viewed, this means each and every one of these people can afford $2400 per year in additional taxes. Hence the “carbon tax”. And the beauty of the carbon tax is that it applies to everybody, rich and poor alike. There are no poor people among us if the lowliest has $2400 a year in extra money they don’t need to survive. This is money the government should rightly take and redistribute. Why should one family have $200 a month more than they absolutely need when other families don’t even have that?

Oh sure, carbon taxes might very well mean that the kids can’t play soccer or hockey anymore, but do we as a society care about our children more than the planet or more rightly our tax base? These are useless pursuits, and the kids can learn to sit and watch TV like their parents do. All that exercise contributes to CO2 emissions. You do exhale CO2 you realize, and the more active you are the more CO2 you exhale. Our children should be kept as inert as possible and if they do exercise a tax should be levied on their emissions of excess CO2 over the inert kids.

“Taxing air” is a popular outcry of right when they foolishly protest. We will never do that, at least for some years. Instead we will just tax the right of your car or your cow or yourself to exhale. Same thing, just as good. Even better than taxing water because some people can drill their own wells or have a stream on their land and that just isn’t fair.

Remember, the goal of economystics is a free lunch for everyone, but nobody working in the kitchen. But somebody has to pay for it. So if there are vast numbers of people that have $200 a month more than they need to survive, they must submit it for the greater good.

Now anyway my private jet is ready to take off for Davos, so I must go.

#61 ImGonnaBeSick on 01.24.19 at 9:19 pm

#24 Jonboy – car sales are going to be waaay down for January
Almost every Chrysler plant (except 2) was down the first two weeks doing inventory.

#62 Gulf Breeze on 01.24.19 at 9:23 pm

My house sold last week. Yippee. Am downsizing….because something wicked this way comes. We are long overdue for corrections of all kinds.

We’re all “going Japanese”…the whole world. It’s going to be at least ten lost years. Can’t see any way around it.

Get your kimonos out!

#63 tccontrarian on 01.24.19 at 9:24 pm

“In fact, a steady stream of similar reports, polls, surveys and studies have been published in the last three years. Personal and family debt during this time has reached an historic high. As reported here a few days ago, between July and November families added more than $17 billion in new mortgage debt, bringing the total to $1.54 trillion – or $1,540,000,000,000. The average mortgage debt, HELOC debt, car loan debt and student debt have all increased in the last few years. And (to restate an important fact) income gains are trailing inflation (1.4% vs 2%).”
///////////////

But it’s even worse than that! Apparently, [paraphrasing – as I don’t remember the exact survey, but I was listening to BNN in the background], about 1/4 of HELOC owners who make ONLY INTEREST payments every month, actually believed that they’d have the entire loan paid off in 10 years!

Yes, folks – financial illiteracy at its best!

Ayee Caramba!!

TCC

#64 Barb on 01.24.19 at 9:42 pm

#63 Economystic on 01.24.19 at 9:03 pm

“…This is money the government should rightly take and redistribute. Why should one family have $200 a month more than they absolutely need when other families don’t even have that?”

———————————————–
Your armband is too tight.

#65 Rargary on 01.24.19 at 9:48 pm

Holy crap to #8 comment. Cdns have been on the brink of financial ruin long b4 T2. I hope not no one loses their shirt but there’s always the few. Calgary rental rates up 13% but commercial leases still stuck in the mud. Slowly Calgary climbing out…we realy don”t need another kick in the pants financially. Unless we won’t feel it too hard as we’ve been brow beaten so much so we already down in the dumps. Good grief Charlie Brown

#66 Zapper on 01.24.19 at 9:52 pm

#20 not first

Well done, it really is that simple.

#67 tccontrarian on 01.24.19 at 9:54 pm

Here’s the link to the discussion on HELOC literacy survey findings:

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/one-quarter-of-canadian-heloc-users-pay-interest-only-survey-1.1198514

There are 3 short segments I believe…

TCC

#68 Entrepreneur on 01.24.19 at 9:55 pm

We are in a debt “But all that spending saved the GDP” and only for a short spell. Now where is the “spending money” to turn this economy around?

Back to square one and the debt trail has run out, back, back, back to reality.

And what about jobs? Maybe have more Canadian Made products in our big stores (since the Ma and Pa stores cannot compete). No more throw away products.

Another topic: Victoria is cutting down a tree, middle of a street, for a bicycle lane. Fair enough, I can see the logic in it but to me that tree gave us life, a symbol. Time to respect the resources for their earth value.

#69 Chester on 01.24.19 at 9:58 pm

A lot of people starting out don’ t want to rent until they get a decent down payment. Then they don’t want to start with a small house and a used car, they want it all right away. So they pay all their hard money in interest payments to smart rich people, they argue and fight about money, can’t sleep at night and eventually get divorced meaning more interest payments to the rich people.

#70 not 1st on 01.24.19 at 10:04 pm

Man is Trudeau shameless. Selfie pics with 8 year old debt slaves. He is always pulling his grotesque shenanigans on the young people of this country. Why doesn’t he try a selfie in downtown Calgary.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/trudeau-continues-election-style-swing-through-new-brunswick-1.4267265

#71 DON on 01.24.19 at 10:13 pm

My mill/GenX sister informed me of a new hipster trend for this year.

Eating at home appears to be the new declaration, cause it is Healthier (also less expensive).

#72 WUL on 01.24.19 at 10:16 pm

#34 Ken from BC on 01.24.19 at 6:45 pm
$$$$$$$$

And US national debt is growing at $10 million per minute. How much is that in 1.54 trillion minutes? By my reckoning it is more than some CEO’s salaries.

https://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/u-government-debt-grows-10-million-minute-david-160752953.html

#73 Drill Baby Drill on 01.24.19 at 10:25 pm

Carbon Tax is going to spike the cost of living on all things consumers use. Then watch out for the 2020 and up carbon tax versions. Yeah I know Selfie Boy has promised to giveback 90%. Yeah right !! Once the feds have their mits on those tax dollars that 90% will be 50% in quick order.

#74 Drill Baby Drill on 01.24.19 at 10:27 pm

#12
Japan does this by borrowing from themselves.

#75 Drill Baby Drill on 01.24.19 at 10:30 pm

Carbon Tax = Tax Grab
Yeah let’s give the Feds a whole bunch more money then they can fix global warming.
God we are dumb.

#76 not 1st on 01.24.19 at 10:34 pm

The NDP are trotting out all the old dead wood now. Svend Robinson??

Calls for all oil and gas shut down immediate. Boy another genius.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/no-new-oil-and-gas-says-ndp-candidate-svend-robinson-1.4264981

Maybe someone should tell him the only places for viable wind and solar are surprise, the same places where oil and gas are drilled. Think we are going to let you shut down oil pumpjacks to put solar up here. Think again.

#77 One million is nothing on 01.24.19 at 10:38 pm

Garth,

I’m ashamed what I’m reading here. Apparently, it’s obvious to everyone but you.

The government is going to solve the personal and government debt problem by inflating the currency until they get around to lopping off a zero or two.

Really, how can anyone think that what is essentially a failed branch-plant economy, that makes its way in the world by digging holes in the ground, cutting down trees and laundering money, and has little going for it except an over abundant of “personal leverage”, do anything but eventually inflate its currency out of existence, is beyond my comprehension. Certainly all those individuals who make 80/90/100K a year in Toronto or Vancouver, who owe a million plus on their properties are counting on it. And certainly the banks are willing to make all those floating rate mortgages because they’re expecting it. And remember, even though Zimbabwe called their species “the dollar”, it didn’t really help!
Think Canada will stand alone when the rest of the world is “doing it” – fat chance. Good God Garth, these are the same people that tell us inflation is running at 2-3%, when just about everything I buy is going up 10/15/20%. As for the suggestion that our intellectually impaired “budgets balance themselves leader” will come up with another solution – now I know I better start reading another blog!

#78 DON on 01.24.19 at 10:41 pm

#51 I think I might know nothing on 01.24.19 at 8:04 pm

“That means, pickled in debt, struggling to make the monthlies and, yeah, two hundred bucks from the cliff’s edge, families no longer have the capacity to rescue the economy.” Garth

————————————————

Through one means, or another, money can always be given to the masses by the government. That’s what happened last time. Cheap rates allowed many to acquire housing very cheaply and see it go up in value three-old. Then they used that equity as an ATM. That represents money that was taken from the “conscientious” savers to the other “reckless” spenders.

There are many options the government has to stimulate the economy with debt and push the day of reckoning further down the road until we finally have a financial collapse.
*************
“further down the road…”

ha ha ha ha more like ‘Coming Soon to a theatre new you’

#79 AACI Home-Dog on 01.24.19 at 10:56 pm

“Unless you have millions already, stay invested.”

And if I do…(let’s say I do)…
Should I sell ?
naaahhh…reap dividends…and relax.

#80 viorelli on 01.24.19 at 10:57 pm

From my interaction with young families here through my older son’s friends who also have kids in the BPOE, it really seems like many are on the verge of the bankruptcy. Average income is maybe $ 90 – 150.000 per household before taxes, mortgages, car loans, hockey, vacations, mobile phone plans, increasing grocery and utility bills take most of that income away. Last remaining pockets of free parking had been replaced with paid parking everywhere in the city of Vancouver. Than you have the child molesters wondering around, there was a big sting yesterday. Suddenly the money laundry guys in the casinos look like heavenly angels. The Huawei CFO is avoiding her empty home tax by being under house arrest. Why would you want to raise your kids in a city like this? Sydney, AU property costs are dropping rapidly, wait a little longer and leave the country either as an investor or a skilled trade. I have this feeling that Canada is done for a while. You cannot get anymore blood from a dead cow (businesses and productive citizens), the rest of the healthy herd migrates for greener pastures, moves out of the country. Two of my close friends had recently closed their businesses in YVR and moved most of their capital away. Those jobs are not coming back, thank the idiots in charge of the country.

#81 Gino on 01.24.19 at 10:59 pm

Great article Garth. My buddy who works for a York region City said 32% of residents are one year behind poo aging their municipal taxes. I’ll bet it’s the same for most municipalities. It’s gonna crater!!!

#82 DON on 01.24.19 at 11:15 pm

Sorry to hear about your Dad.

You spent your time wisely with family – truly the best thing in life.

#83 crossbordershopper on 01.24.19 at 11:33 pm

i rememeber these surveys coming out all the time for the past 20 years even longer, since the late 80’s i think.
the numbers change, people have a net worth of like $12000. or 50% of people work paycheque to paycheck. sure so who cares.
i have seen people who are on drugs, these junkies know how to manage money, since they have non. Others spend money on many little things but are not needed, of course drugs are not needed.
see in poor countries on wealthy people can afford drugs, in Canada and the west, poor people can afford drugs.
so in context everyone is ok in Canada. you work and have $200 bucks, thats good. no . sure $500 or $1000 week is better to save, but what are you going to do live like a poper, save cut back, etc for the rest of your life, and either the tax man takes it and redistributes it widely, or your ungreatfull kids get it and dont know the true hardship that it was to make it.
in the end, its your life, enjoy it, and it soon will be over before you know it, and a few years after you are gone your name will never be mentioned again, good or bad.
so in that context, you should enjoy it.becasue someone else will enjoy it if you dont, it will be forced taken or bequeathed to others.

#84 fishman on 01.25.19 at 12:19 am

Mr. crowdedelevatorfartz: The apartment at 12th & Granville that lil potato shared with Christopher Ingvaldson for 2-3 years is not an assigned college dorm. It is the most prestigious, high security,understated, classy, modern, dressed up as old European apartment building in the city. Diplomats, political elites & old Vancouver money gets in there. Nice try with the Fake News though.

#85 Assigned By The School? on 01.25.19 at 1:51 am

#59 Crowded – There is a lot more to this story than you will ever know. They never lived together on a campus, but at a joint called the Douglas Lodge that looked like an old hotel conversion. I am not at liberty to discuss this matter any further.

#86 Stan Brooks on 01.25.19 at 2:39 am

#24 JonBoy on 01.24.19 at 6:20 pm

Pretty good observation. People are drown in debt and very few have any cash or assets/stocks, explains the under-performance of TSX as those debt payments increase, people have to borrow just to survive.

We spent the future of this generation and the next, now with 30 years ‘insured’ mortgages politicians want to spend the future of the generations coming after that trough debt.

My hope is that the banks will realize that governments are bankrupt, will not be able to cover the ‘insurance’ and stop lending. Or else…

#87 Economystic on 01.25.19 at 3:05 am

#67 Barb

“Your armband is too tight.”

What armband? I am dressed in a nice Armani suit. And I have wifi on my private plane. What you folks need to realize is that what we, the elite, do, is for your own good, and what you attempt to do for your own good is evil and will destroy the world. We will save you. Yes, we must take most all of what you have, but don’t worry we will give you back what you should have.

Remember, it’s going to be a free lunch for everybody with nobody working in the kitchen. Is it too much for me to ask that I get 3 very fine meals a day and a private plane if I can bring this glorious outcome about? No, I think not. I’m working hard, what with all these conferences on global warming, economics and globalization, I rather need a party on a yacht now and again. About every weekend I would say. Well, fancy ski trips would also suffice but not if we have to fly commercial or stay in anything less than a 5 star hotel. Those of you who are not trained in economystics need those of us who are properly trained to save you from yourselves.

Now if you will excuse me, I am working hard on AOC’s (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) platform to back up how the world will end in disaster in 12 years if we don’t stop people from cooking their food. She is the future of politics. You’ll note that as a newly elected politician she does not give all her income as an elected official to charity as Trump does. Or even any of it actually. This is fully right, because in our economystic world there will be no need for charity. Only highly paid economystics and the rest of you, all the same. That is what fairness looks like.

#88 Howard on 01.25.19 at 3:05 am

#59 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.24.19 at 8:40 pm
@#47 past the peak
“….if the person was Andrew Scheer or Maxime Bernier, that it would get a lot of press coverage…”

+++++

Possibly , but I still dont see why anyone would associate having a room mate in post secondary school 20-30 years ago …who turns out to be a total freak….should reflect on the person who lived with them.
Most school room mates are assigned by the school are they not?
Its not like Trudeau, or Scheer or Bernier would have had a choice as to their room mates when they were barely out of their teens.
A non issue in my book.
Trudeau has far more interesting faux pas today than a long lost roomy that turned out to be a sick freak.

————————————————

They weren’t friends and roommates in university. They were friends and roommates when both were TEACHERS at a Vancouver private school 15 years ago. Highly likely Mr. Ingvaldson was carrying out his “activities” in the very apartment where Justin lived. Speaks to the kind of people he associated with.

#89 Debt Schmebt on 01.25.19 at 3:18 am

The land value of Canada is appraised at $36 Trillion – the population is 36 million. That’s $ 1 million of equity for each Canadian citizen. Keep the party goin’ – how will you spend your million? We live in a democracy after all – Canada’s not like the UK where the Queen owns everything.

#90 under the radar on 01.25.19 at 5:36 am

#58 2 mil in lottery winnings-..
Depends on your circumstances , risk tolerance and age.
2mil at aged 30 should be deployed differently than if you were 55 .

#91 SMA on 01.25.19 at 6:57 am

“Once a nation parts with the control of its currency and credit, it matters not who makes the nations laws. Usury, once in control, will wreck any nation. Until the control of the issue of currency and credit is restored to government and recognized as its most sacred responsibility, all talk of sovereignty of parliament and of democracy is idle and futile.” Canada’s 10th prime minister William Lyon Mackenzie King

I wonder how much longer we’re going to keep kicking the can, before we make the necessary changes.

“And, for the love of Allah, stop borrowing.” As a Muslim that really had me LMAO! I love the pictures, love reading your blogs every night, plus Doug, Ryan and the new guy.

#92 Taking care of pets on 01.25.19 at 7:35 am

I am glad to see that the dog in the picture has a loving home after the passing of his buddy. Any thoughts on how to structure wills or any other financial advice on taking care of pets who outlive their owners?

#93 Trumpocalypse2019 on 01.25.19 at 7:50 am

RED ALERT! RED ALERT! RED ALERT!

Roger Stone captured in military-style FBI raid!

https://www.cnn.com/

Trump is now in his bunker deciding upon which war-distraction he must choose asap.

The probability of nuclear deployment is 66% for the next 48 hours.

Fuel up. Plan to leave major centres by tonight.

Stay tuned for further updates.

PREPARE.

#94 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.25.19 at 8:18 am

@#74 not 1st
“Man is Trudeau shameless. Selfie pics with 8 year old debt slaves…… Why doesn’t he try a selfie in downtown Calgary.”

+++++
Trudeau’s handlers picked a very safe francophone riding in New Brunswick for that photo op.

His “selfie” posing with smiling kids that dont pay taxes…yet….is about as safe as it gets.
The equivalent of kissing babies.

Calgary taxpayers will be waiting for the election dog and pony show to arrive sometime this year……as will the rest of overtaxed Canadians.

#95 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.25.19 at 8:33 am

@#79 not 1st
“The NDP are trotting out all the old dead wood now. Svend Robinson??”

++++

Yeah, I kinda shook my head in disbelief at that announcement.

Svend was retired for almost 15 years?
Sitting back with his inflation adjusted, taxpayer funded, lifetime MP’s pension …living the good life…. and he’s now ………. bored?

(Pension estimated at $71,400.00 per year for the last 14 years……)

Or is it something else?

https://theprovince.com/news/bc-politics/mike-smyth-could-the-ring-thing-haunt-svend-robinsons-comeback-bid-again

Careful shaking hands with him, he’s been known to collect jewelry that isnt his……..

#96 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.25.19 at 8:51 am

@ # 88 more than you know.
“There is a lot more to this story than you will ever know. …….I am not at liberty to discuss this matter any further.

++++++++

Why, are you one of baby Trudeau’s retired RCMP security detail?
Douglas Lodge ? 12th and Granville?
I remember when they converted that building to condos 25 -30 years ago. Ate at the restaurant on the ground floor once.
Didnt know a crappy old 5 storey brick apartment building on a busy intersection was an “exclusive lodge”.
Vancouver’s pretention never ceases to amaze
I guess I’m not rich enough to qualify.
I knew Trudeau was a Drama Teacher at a private school but thats about as far as my “infatuation” with our fearless leader and his private room mates goes.
You folks seem to be well informed.
Please educate us or better yet , tell what you know to the authorities if your employment contract allows it.

I’m sure there are thousands of people walking the streets today that have lived or are living with the same kind of freak.

47 people arrested/investigated in BC for the same thing yesterday and as the police spokesperson said, “They are from ALL walks of life, ALL incomes, etc etc etc.”

If there is something in Trudeau’s past…it should eventually come out.

#97 not 1st on 01.25.19 at 9:20 am

#99 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.25.19 at 8:51 am
—-

Peter Dalgish. Former Trudeau friend and confident.

Some pretty shady types have been around the PM

#98 Dissident on 01.25.19 at 9:52 am

Happy Friday y’all! In political news, Roger Stone has been arrested by the FBI Mueller team! Hahaha yes finally! He’s the scummiest scumbag!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4N7ncpxa42c

#99 Where's The Money Greedeaup? on 01.25.19 at 10:14 am

Re: https://thebreaker.news/news/clark-plecas-penticton/
Exclusive: Plecas’s “final straw” was Clark’s plan to politicize riding offices.
Look, if anyone was “above board”, this exposure would have happened years prior, but it took an independent Speaker of the Ledge to bring it to light.
I would love an independent audit of at least the last 10 years of the BC Ledge, which includes current BC Liberal leader Andrew Wilkenson’s tenure, when James got promoted without a consensus, over more qualified candidates.
You have to at least go back to the John Doyle accounting era, where his report chastised the BC Liberals for non-compliance to the rules. He got the boot with an NDA. I’d love to hear what he saw-the Greedo Scampbell-Coleman-DeJong horror show. Might as well throw Mary Polak in there because they all said not a thing about this for years and the blind excuse does not wash..
The fix was in from the start with Greedo’s inauguration when he LIED at the polls saying he wouldn’t sell BC Rail and then selling it to one of his prominent donators and creating a huge lawsuit and trial that cost taxpayers tens of millions and the trust of gov’t.
“You won’t recognize BC when I am finished” Scampbell said at his victory speech, almost identical to Justin Greedeau’s victory speech.
Guillotine!
Check it out.

#100 Hindsight on Horizon on 01.25.19 at 10:16 am

Why are so many myopic? Liberals and Democrats are just puppets for the ‘Economystics’. The pursuit of globalization (illegals, mass immigration, those in bondage to social assistance) is to ensure there are more have-nots than haves at the polls. ‘Democracy’ will take care of the rest – that is socializing and distributing the chattels that you worked hard to obtain. Yep, free lunch for all.

#101 Smoking Man on 01.25.19 at 10:33 am

Roger Stone arrested by the swat team. With CNN conveniently there to film it for a process crime.
Totaly for optics an to push a false narrative.

Globalists just upped the stakes. Time for Trump to man up.

#102 Lee on 01.25.19 at 10:48 am

#101 Dissident,

From reading the headlines on CNN one would get the impression he was charged with obtaining emails illegally in co-ordination with campaign officials. But I don’t think this is the impression CNN was trying to achieve. Nah. Probably not.

#103 Where's The Money Greedeau? on 01.25.19 at 10:54 am

Re; #83 viorelli on 01.24.19 at 10:57 pm
From my interaction with young families here through my older son’s friends who also have kids in the BPOE, it really seems like many are on the verge of the bankruptcy. …
Two of my close friends had recently closed their businesses in YVR and moved most of their capital away. Those jobs are not coming back, thank the idiots in charge of the country.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Last post: https://thebreaker.news/news/clark-plecas-penticton/
You have to understand that this is all in the deep state’s agenda 30, to enslave every one left in Canada. Destroy small business, make everyone drive electric vehicles so we can’t run away from urban centers, then tax us to death and make this country unstable and hassle the Trumpsters, since he is fighting those evil Davos, Lear jet riding scum.
Things are going to get interesting in the next 6 weeks. Look what happened today with the arrest of Roger Stone. Pure evil those Khazarians.

#104 not 1st on 01.25.19 at 10:56 am

If you want to see the future of Canada, play around with the population pyramids. No amount of immigration will make this country younger. Most immigrants settle in GTA, Montreal and BC. Those are still the oldest provinces.

AB, SK and MB have the youngest demographic in Canada. Ours is on par with the US which has the youngest first world demographics.

http://population-pyramids.github.io/#/Ontario/Canada

A smart PM would have those resources in the west flying off the coasts. But we don’t have that. Soon we will see the results of that policy. AB is not going to pay for the rest of Canada.

#105 whiplash on 01.25.19 at 11:08 am

#76 Drill baby Drill
Carbon Tax is going to spike the cost of all things consumers use.

The tax on carbon we are seeing right now is nothing compared to the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change plans to reduce CO2 emissions/1.5 degree C. by 2030 or doomsday according to them.
Subsection 2.5.2. Economic and Financial Implications of 1.5 degrees C. would require a carbon tax between $135US—$5500US per tonne of CO2 equivalents or for us in good old Canada at todays exchange rate $180–$7350 per tonne. How much will that loaf of bread cost??

#106 Dissident on 01.25.19 at 11:13 am

And on the topic of this blog post:

I overheard this week, a young woman, a millennial, talking to someone on the phone about her summer wedding she was trying to plan, then something about taking out equity from her mortgage to pay for things (that’s when my ears perked up) and also the fact that she was doing IVF treatments…seems a bit out of order (not judging) but seriously?

Wedding AND IVF expenses? That those are two huge expenses. One of which can be axed by simply eloping, like we did. (Trust me, your mom will get over it, and you’ll enjoy not spending tens of thousands of dollars on a silly party). Don’t I sound like Garth now. HAH.

People using their house as a piggy bank is real. Case in point. Especially squeezed millennials.

#107 Figure it Out on 01.25.19 at 11:46 am

“Lets add;
$100,000 -30,000 taxes -24,000 mortgage and property tax -12,000 utilities and groceries -9,000 nanny -5,000 emerg -6,000 car = $14,000

Now to take advantage of RSP, RESPs TFSAs all that, you need another $30k in before tax income.”

You can do this with any level of income, $50k a year, or $200k a year, and come up with a long list of expenses that would be considered “reasonable” for a household at that income level — and then say there’s no money left over for saving. But savings aren’t on your list! Which just means that for that household, savings are a lower priority that anything on that list. Plus, mortgage principal and (maybe?) appreciating home prices means they are saving. Life is about choices, and it’s these drones who can’t save any money that keep the economy going and my dividends coming.

#108 James on 01.25.19 at 12:19 pm

#104 Smoking Man on 01.25.19 at 10:33 am

Roger Stone arrested by the swat team. With CNN conveniently there to film it for a process crime.
Totaly for optics an to push a false narrative.

Globalists just upped the stakes. Time for Trump to man up.
_________________________________________
What false narrative Old Man? Please Explain? He was indicted for obstruction, making false statements, and witness tampering you fool. Whether CNN, FOX, or NBC were there to film doesn’t matter Old Man. The FBI does not indict just for kicks or to get even. A DA (District Attorney), also known as the prosecutor in the case is there to demonstrate to a grand jury, via the disclosure of relevant facts, that the alleged perpetrator of the alleged crime is probably the person who did it. The DA does not have to present all the evidence at the time of the indictment but just enough evidence as is needed in order to command the grand jury to indict you. They will hold back specific evidence until the trail, most of it is however shared with the accused before the trail. In some cases they hold back their most damning evidence in order to play it out in court where it really matters. What that means is Roger Stone may very shortly be wearing strips or Orange is the new Black for his attire.
Here you go Old Man read it for yourself.

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/5694704-Stone-Indictment-012419.html

#109 Ubul on 01.25.19 at 1:30 pm

#106 Where’s The Money Greedeau?
Pure evil those Khazarians.

—–

This part somehow missed the DELETED button.

#110 Headhunter on 01.25.19 at 1:44 pm

#111 James on 01.25.19 at 12:19 pm

Holy triggered man try not to explode. Roger Stone has NOT been convicted of anything.

How did CNN know what was goin down? Proof positive just optics to pressure “you know who”

Gonna backfire bigly as CNN and the fakenews lose more and more ground everyday.

Do not interfere with the enemy when they are self destructing… the art of war

What’s fake about a federal indictment? You guys are losing it. – Garth

#111 Evanne on 01.25.19 at 1:56 pm

Perhaps debt forgiveness and clearing half if not all of all those debt is necessary.

Creditors and the government can start writing off these debts.

Look, EU is forgiving Greece loans. Creditors are accepting some losses.

It is a win win for everyone. So folks can keep their homes, students dont have to balk at their student loans.

Make it a time time debt forgiveness for everyone who is in debt and watch our economy boom and wages increases as everyone now have discretionary wages to spend!

#112 Shawn Allen on 01.25.19 at 1:57 pm

The Government has invested in your pension and RRSP!

Federal and provincial governments subsidize every dollar going into pension and RRSPs. Basically pre-tax dollars go in and in effect governments have contributed usually 30% to even 50% or a bit more to every single dollar in pensions and RRSPs.

Then the money grows. Pensions are professionally invested and have tended to do well. RRSPs grow on average.

Then the money is taxed at full marginal rates. But (contrary to popular lore) the marginal tax rate is lower in retirement in the great majority of cases.

Does the government in the end make money on the deal despite lower tax rates in retirement? I would think yes, they do. And that’s without considering the benefits of an elder population more able to look after itself.

I have never seen this benefit (if it is one) to the governments studied or even mentioned.

A certain former Revenue Minister might have seen it studied?

#113 Fortune500 on 01.25.19 at 2:13 pm

Any inside information on this Garth?

https://business.financialpost.com/real-estate/mortgages/exclusive-canada-mulls-measures-to-curb-private-lenders-growth

Apparently true. Details later. – Garth

#114 not 1st on 01.25.19 at 2:25 pm

Garth when is your recommendation to exit Canada as an asset class going to happen?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-rystad-production-outlook/u-s-oil-output-to-surpass-russia-and-saudi-arabia-combined-by-2025-rystad-idUSKCN1PI21B?utm_source=applenews

#115 James on 01.25.19 at 2:54 pm

#113 Headhunter on 01.25.19 at 1:44 pm

#111 James on 01.25.19 at 12:19 pm

Holy triggered man try not to explode. Roger Stone has NOT been convicted of anything.
How did CNN know what was goin down? Proof positive just optics to pressure “you know who”
Gonna backfire bigly as CNN and the fakenews lose more and more ground everyday.
Do not interfere with the enemy when they are self destructing… the art of war
……………………………………………………………..
What’s fake about a federal indictment? You guys are losing it. – Garth
___________________________________________
Where did I say Roger Stone was convicted? It was mentioned several times on this blog before I clarified the Old man about indictments. So please try to follow closely. See evidence below.

#96 Trumpocalypse2019 on 01.25.19 at 7:50 am didn’t say it.

#101 Dissident on 01.25.19 at 9:52 am didn’t say it.

#104 Smoking Man on 01.25.19 at 10:33 am didn’t say it.

#106 Where’s The Money Greedeau? on 01.25.19 at 10:54 am didn’t say it.

So far YOU are the only one to mention the word “Convicted”
BTW: An indictment is an indictment FULL STOP
Where did you attend university? The School of Herdonomics with your buddy Dr Smoking Man?

#116 Stan Brooks on 01.25.19 at 3:47 pm

#116 Fortune500 on 01.25.19 at 2:13 pm
Any inside information on this Garth?

https://business.financialpost.com/real-estate/mortgages/exclusive-canada-mulls-measures-to-curb-private-lenders-growth

Apparently true. Details later. – Garth

===============================

Government sends clear message:

House lending is for the banks, their favorite oligopoly, their friends and sponsors.

Insured by CHMC/taxpayers.

God/Allah/Budha forbid fair competition and market rates by private lenders.

This land is oligopoly land. In finance, telecom, … you name it.

They are not going to let their sheeple be milked by somebody else, you are owned by them.

#117 Stan Brooks on 01.25.19 at 3:55 pm

#118 James on 01.25.19 at 2:54 pm

So far YOU are the only one to mention the word “Convicted”
BTW: An indictment is an indictment FULL STOP
Where did you attend university? The School of Herdonomics with your buddy Dr Smoking Man?

If lies by politicians (including inflation stats) were considered a cause for indictment we would have no politicians left. This is what they do – lie for a living.

On another hand if you lie to the government, you are destroyed.

How fair.

#118 Shawn Allen on 01.25.19 at 4:14 pm

Debt GForgiveness / Jubilee?

#114 Evanne on 01.25.19 at 1:56 pm
Perhaps debt forgiveness and clearing half if not all of all those debt is necessary.

Creditors and the government can start writing off these debts.

Look, EU is forgiving Greece loans. Creditors are accepting some losses.

It is a win win for everyone. So folks can keep their homes, students dont have to balk at their student loans.

Make it a time time debt forgiveness for everyone who is in debt and watch our economy boom and wages increases as everyone now have discretionary wages to spend!

******************************************
Nice thought but can never happen.

Greece was “forgiven” some debt only because they could never pay it back. So yes, there can be writeoffs of debt when the debtor is basically bankrupt.

I have read that in Roman Times it was only ever debt to the government that was forgiven, not debt owed to private lenders.

Forcing today’s private lenders to forgive debt would be an absolute disaster.

Credit is truly the grease of the economy. Such a move would presumably bring lending to a halt and with it, the economy.

Trust is an essential element to basically everything in our lives. Forcing private lenders to forgive debt would be a huge breach of trust.

Again, nice thought but can never happen.

Debtors need to work hard and keep on paying that interest and debt.

#119 Kali on 01.25.19 at 4:16 pm

#119 Stan Brooks – Those religions your quoting are light weight compared to Kali the Goddess of Death who is worshipped by millions.

#120 The machine on 01.25.19 at 4:46 pm

Stone arrested…. trump caves. Coincidence…. not a chance.

#121 ulsterman on 01.25.19 at 7:54 pm

#110 Figure it Out
“You can do this with any level of income, $50k a year, or $200k a year, and come up with a long list of expenses that would be considered “reasonable” for a household at that income level — and then say there’s no money left over for saving. ”

errrr no, of course wealthy families are capable of spending all their money, but what the poster is saying is that a family grossing 100k basically almost MUST spend all that money just to get by. They explicitly stated the family doesn’t eat out, go on vacation, or have the kids in endless activities. It isn’t a choice to buy groceries and pay rent or a mortgage. It’s not a needless indulgence. The point is the average schlub has few choices.

#122 Bottoms_Up on 01.25.19 at 8:11 pm

For decades we’ve had governments without spines. Gouging us on everything from taxes on tax to allowing insurance companies, banks, telecoms, hydro to run rampant and charge whatever they want. And how about the Loblaws bread scandal and gasoline price fixing. And allowing house prices to get out of control. Garth tried to stop that one. Thanks Harper.

#123 Exurban on 01.26.19 at 12:46 am

Justin Trudeau and his friend Christopher Ingvaldson shared the 12th and Granville apartment while they were students in the UBC Faculty of Education. Graduating in 1998, they were both accepted to teach at West Point Grey Academy. Justin left his job at West Point Grey Academy very suddenly and quietly. He did some on-call teaching for the Vancouver School Board for the rest of the school year and then moved back to Montreal and entered an engineering program in 2002. Ingvaldson had moved on to St. George’s School where he was teaching at the time of his 2010 arrest for child porn. Remarkably little press interest in this story.