The campaign

Elections are exciting, especially when you’re in one. Scary, too. In my life I have won and lost. You can pretty much sum up the entire candidate experience in one night. When you win, the hall is packed that evening with supporters and brand new friends. When you lose, it’s almost empty. People love to buy high and sell low.

The first time I lost was in 1993 when the Progressive Conservative party, which I had run to be leader of, was decimated. Flamed. Annihilated, thanks to Reform Party vote-splitting. Despite being a cabinet minister, my election night crowd was sparse, sad and as depressing as the church hall that held it. Media outnumbered the party faithful – all hungry to get the story of a government and a national party being destroyed in a single night.

My parents, both in their eighties, maintained a brave face. Then my father, slipping as he was into the foggy hole of Alzheimer’s, started to cry. In an instant he had TV cameras and lenses in his face. I couldn’t take it. I struck a guy from CTV. And so the night ended. Badly.

Well, for the 43rd time Canadians will vote for Parliament and a prime minister on the third Monday in October. As we approach, polls show Cons and Libs about even, the NDP in collapse and the Mad Max party an unknown outlier. The math favours Trudeau, since a wipeout by Jagmeet will send lefties to the Liberals while any support Bernier gets will come out of young Scheer’s hide. But nine months is a long time. Anything can happen.

The first salvo will be the federal budget in a few weeks. That will be followed by a new ‘middle class’ plan full of shiny promises from the governing party. The opposition guys will point to record spending, wall-to-wall deficits, higher debt and interest rates plus general fiscal mayhem. The T2 gang will point to a 40-year low in the jobless rate, a reasonable economy and standing tough against Trump.

Despite the posturing, the middle class has been taking it in the ear. Wage growth is less than inflation, household debt is extreme, the oil patch is a mess and those surveys referenced here this week show family finances are in shockingly bad shape. The big reason is clear – average families can’t afford average homes and are ripping themselves apart trying. So it’s fair to assume real estate will be a pivotal part of the upcoming campaign.

Finance guy Bill Morneau said as much this week.

The feds will soon, he announced, unveil ways “to make home buying more affordable to millennials.” Of course it was a moister wave that helped push T2 over the top in 2015, but since then real estate’s only become less affordable – in large part due to the government’s own actions. Now that the Mills are utterly house horny and in full nesting mode, expect this to be a central issue in the October campaign.

What does that mean?

Forget political promises to build ‘affordable housing’ across the country, as the NDP are making. Never have such plans been enacted. Never have they had any impact on overall prices. And never have they been useful to middle class income-earners. It’s a ruse.

Instead, look for the T2 gang to embrace some of the proposals hinted at here. Like a cap for the stress test. Currently borrowers have to prove they can carry loans at the higher of 5.34% or the rate their bank is offering plus 2%. The Bank of Canada may be raising rates once or twice prior to the election, so capping this – at, say 5% – is being seriously studied.

The other biggie is a return to 30-year amortizations. Right now CMHC will offer insurance only on terms of up to 25 years, so if you want a mortgage from a major lender that’s what you must accept. Longer ams spread out repayment and lower monthly payments. Yeah, they also mean you end up paying back a big pot of added interest, but nobody cares about that.

The Libs could also increase the limit on the Home Buyer’s Plan, which lets people raid their RRSPs for real estate downpayments, then gives 15 years to repay the stolen amount or have it added to taxable income. The current limit is $25,000 ($50,000 for a couple) and the funds need to have been in an RRSP for at least 90 days before being removed and spent. Some people in the Lib caucus want the amount doubled and the time period shortened.

Meanwhile realtors have been lobbying Ottawa to increase the HBTC – the Home Buyers Tax Credit. This lets buyers write off up to $5,000 in closing costs against their taxable income, and generally saves about $750. Piffle, say the realtors. Jack it up to provide some realistic relief – a tax savings of $2,500. Plus, CREA has also been lobbying the feds to focus help on those moisters most in need – poor hipsters in the GTA and YVR.

We’ll see what happens. Any of the above will not make houses cost less, of course. The ultimate effect will be just the opposite. Political ineptitude has been at the very heart of our real estate bubble, and we may soon witness one level of government (the feds) boosting the market while another (BC) tries to destroy it.

In the end, as I have learned, it comes down to votes cast by people who gave it all six minutes of thought.

152 comments ↓

#1 YELLOW VESTS CANADA on 01.23.19 at 5:08 pm

FIRST YELLOW VEST ANTI GLOBALIST TO COME TO SEE GARTH TURNER

#2 Chaddywack on 01.23.19 at 5:11 pm

A lot of people who ever before voted last election and yes they were younger people.

However, I’m not sure they cared about housing, taxes or deficits. It was all about legalizing pot.

That’s why T2 won the last election (that and people thought he was “hot”). Now that it’s taken care of I hope those voters will be too stoned to get to the polls in October because they’ll be busy celebrating one year of legal skunk.

#3 yorkville renter on 01.23.19 at 5:15 pm

hmm… as someone who is looking to buy next year, an increase in the HBP appeals to me very much. Time to stuff the wife’s RRSP account!

#4 Stan Brooks on 01.23.19 at 5:16 pm

No amount of financial viagra will resurrect this dead horse called Real Estate in Canada.

Housing will be more affordable again only after the crash and when the politicians remove their dirty greedy fingers from the housing market.

Any meddling will result in higher costs for taxpayers who are overstretched already/for a very long time.

I will be sending my campaign donations to T2 and his finance guy – a pair of smelly socks and an used condom.

#5 yorkville renter on 01.23.19 at 5:19 pm

#1 – c’mon man.. life in Canada is easy.
#2 – I smell reefer madness with your post… Trudeau is not great, but the available choices in the last election were horrible.

I’d like a return to Chretien/Martin/Clark types to vote for

#6 LivinLarge on 01.23.19 at 5:24 pm

“In the end, as I have learned, it comes down to votes cast by people who gave it all six minutes of thought.” Sad but soooo perennially true.

#7 The Greater Cauliflower on 01.23.19 at 5:27 pm

I’m curious what people have in their TFSA.
(To compare if i am doing okay or not)
I have $86K

#8 The real Kip (Ret) on 01.23.19 at 5:33 pm

“Annihilated, thanks to Reform Party vote-splitting.”

Let’s not forget the hated GST and failed Meech Lake Accord that added to the tsunami that swamped the PC’s. On second thought, let’s forget about it altogether. Few here remember it anyway.

#9 Michael King on 01.23.19 at 5:33 pm

You didn’t mention the Greens. I usually vote NDP but have voted Progressive Conservative. Sadly, that party no longer exists. I did vote Liberal once (2011) and never will again. My point is that a lot of NDP voters may go Green rather than Liberal. If the local Green candidate (Vancouver Quadra) is not a flake as is usually the case, they will get my vote.

#10 JuliaS on 01.23.19 at 5:37 pm

If you subsidize something – you get more of it. Affordable housing programs therefore always work in reverse of what’s advertised. CMHC is a walking hazard that shifts risk associated with lending and puts taxpayer on the hook if things don’t work out. That’s one organization we could do without and the banks would be a lot less eager to offer sub-prime deals if their own money was on the line.

Want housing to become more affordable? End affordable housing programs, let the interest rates rise to accommodate risk associated with lending, and allow prices to deflate naturally.

But since that throws a lot of people from the old regime under the bus, it ain’t going to happen. Promises to dismantle CMHC do not win elections.

#11 PastThePeak on 01.23.19 at 5:40 pm

Politicians and bankers just can’t help themselves.

Their solution to “too much debt” is – more debt!

#12 yvr_lurker on 01.23.19 at 5:42 pm

In the end, as I have learned, it comes down to votes cast by people who gave it all six minutes of thought.

——-

My family, and most of our friends, gave it about 10 years of thought, and realized that the next generation in YVR is completely screwed unless housing prices in YVR came down to more reflect LOCAL incomes by LOCAL families; not the trust fund babies, 1% global speculations, dudes sitting at a computer in Shanghai, and money launderers. This is why we voted NDP in BC, and slowly we are heading in the right direction.

#13 yogi on 01.23.19 at 5:47 pm

You have said it before in this “pathetic blog”, but in my mind the biggest obstacle to prices returning to a historic normal is the Realtor database being private. Once people have access to more information, we will see more movement on prices. It seems pretty easy for a political party to sell/promise too – “openness and transparency” Just a thought…

#14 JSS on 01.23.19 at 5:48 pm

If there is a return to 30 year amortization, any thoughts if it will be for new home buyers only?

#15 avocado latte on 01.23.19 at 5:51 pm

Are there any benefits to raiding a RRSP for a downpayment? What if you can get by with say 20% while keeping your RRSP (and tfsa) maxed out. It’s not like you’ll get to double-dip and claim a second tax rebate when you refill the RRSP.

#16 JSS on 01.23.19 at 5:51 pm

Restaurant brands international (QSR.TO) – the guys who own timmies, burger king (yuck), and Popeyes – increased dividend 11%

rub tummy

#17 Smartalox on 01.23.19 at 5:51 pm

So how will Bill More’n’owe help Millennials buy homes?

– Okaying 30-year mortgages, but you have to be under 30 to get one?

I have to admit that as a renter with over $300k in my RRSPs, and $300k in my spouse’s, upping the ‘first time’ home buyer’s allowance would help take the heat off our ticking tax bombs, while allowing us to preserve our TFSAs for something more meaningful.

#18 Robert B on 01.23.19 at 5:52 pm

Garth , you wouldn’t have liked politics .
You couldn’t have spoken your mind there .

Here you are at home and you can be yourself.

#19 Wfc on 01.23.19 at 5:56 pm

Mr. King

Wish u were still here at 3 o’clock breaks to discuss garth-o’s posts. I never got to work with u

#20 Mike in Cow Town on 01.23.19 at 5:56 pm

Another 4 years of the Liberals will finish off small business if they come back to complete the tax hatchet job they started.

What a shame Andrew Sheer has the personality of a potted plant. I don’t think he can get the job done in October. Pierre Poilievre has the chops for the job IMO.

Perhaps if the economy goes south between now and election day the masses will pin it on Mr. T.

#21 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.23.19 at 5:59 pm

@#4 Stan Brooks
“I will be sending my campaign donations to T2 and his finance guy – a pair of smelly socks and an used condom.”

++++
Why waste money?
Use a smelly sock AS a condom……

#22 mitzerboyakaQueencitykidd on 01.23.19 at 6:02 pm

X2 Garth
i would also have a night ending badly
if somebody did something like that to my old man in public.

#23 RYAN on 01.23.19 at 6:02 pm

Real tempting to buy some TD if the feds will help banks like that

#24 Penny Henny on 01.23.19 at 6:09 pm

#7 The Greater Cauliflower on 01.23.19 at 5:27 pm
I’m curious what people have in their TFSA.
(To compare if i am doing okay or not)
I have $86K
///////////

70k.
But I didn’t open an account until Sept 2016

#25 PeterfromCalgary on 01.23.19 at 6:12 pm

Justin Trudeau obviously thinks you are a chump if he changes the stress test, mortgage amortizations or Home Buyer’s Plan to get your vote. All the first two changes do is transfer wealth from the future you to the present you at the cost of all the extra compounded interest you will pay. With Home Buyers Plan you lose to opportunity of earning compounded capital gains, dividends or interest. All three changes will make you poorer in your old age if you use them!

So basically Justin is saying vote for me because I will give you an economic sugar high. Sure it is great at first but when you retire it will suck.

#26 The Real Mark on 01.23.19 at 6:12 pm

The Canadian housing market is *very* well supplied with housing. The problem is that there is a disproportionate level of hoarding, heavily by the so-called “landlord families”, but also by people who really have no business owning 2nd and 3rd houses. You can hardly shake a stick around here and not find a cop who has 2-3 rental properties, and no other retirement savings other than their pension. The correct policy response would be to remove any incentives to the banks to increase financing against houses. Yes, I know it might sound counterintuitive, but if loans are harder to get and maintain, housing will become more affordable for younger people whose primary problem is not saving up for a downpayment, but rather, the simple fact that the housing that is available in the marketplace is priced at completely out of whack multiples of income.

The TSX currently trades at a P/E multiple of approximately 15. Housing is currently at 40-45, depending upon which numbers are to be believed. Over the long term, housing should trade at a P/E discount to the stock market (business ownership) on account of historically much lower rent growth relative to business earnings growth. So a justifiable P/E of housing is perhaps closer to 10. The implication here is profound, housing will probably need to fall roughly 80-90% relative to the stock market simply to restore normal long-term ratios.

“#20 Mike in Cow Town on 01.23.19 at 5:56 pm
Another 4 years of the Liberals will finish off small business if they come back to complete the tax hatchet job they started.”

Tax hatchet job? Cracking down on the implicit tax fraud that was taking place in many small businesses was not a ‘tax hatchet job’.

#15 avocado latte on 01.23.19 at 5:51 pm
Are there any benefits to raiding a RRSP for a downpayment?

Assuming the RRSP was properly invested, unequivocally no. In fact, doing so is a relative financial disaster as the RRSP is almost certain to exceed the return of housing significantly. The HBP is basically the government giving people the rope with which to…..

#4 Stan Brooks on 01.23.19 at 5:16 pm
No amount of financial viagra will resurrect this dead horse called Real Estate in Canada.

I agree. Way too much capacity. The policy emphasis for the government should be to move on to creating the next bubble. Instead of trying to prop up a stagnant (since 2013), and now collapsing bubble of the past.

#27 tccontrarian on 01.23.19 at 6:19 pm

“In the end, as I have learned, it comes down to votes cast by people who gave it all six minutes of thought.”
———–

Shouldn’d be a surprise.
These same people spend about 5 minutes a year on their investments…and still expect to retire wealthy!

***

“… Any of the above will not make houses cost less, of course. The ultimate effect will be just the opposite. Political ineptitude has been at the very heart of our real estate bubble, …”

It’s much like the Titanic trying to swerve in the last minute to avoid hitting the iceberg. The Canadian RE bubble is massive and with it comes huge momentum. We’ve seen how the momentum worked in one direction (bullish phase); now we’ll see how it unwinds going the other way. Nothing can stop it!
Tweeking the cap rates for the stress test and/or amortization periods shouldn’t make a big difference.
The ship is sinking and taking water…

Glad I’m on the shore and out of harms way.

TCC

#28 Peter on 01.23.19 at 6:24 pm

All that hype.
What does the housing market really look like if we exclude the Vancouver and greater Toronto areas ??

#29 50 YEARS OF MAPLE LEAF INCOMPETENCE! on 01.23.19 at 6:31 pm

Morneau can’t do anything, however, to reduce the cost of home insurance, which will be skyrocketing in the GTA thanks to the horrendous crime rate there.

Stanley Cup Rings Stolen in Etobicoke!!

https://www.thestar.com/news/crime/2019/01/23/two-pittsburgh-penguins-stanley-cup-rings-stolen-in-etobicoke.html

(In fairness to the poor Toronturds who committed this crime, this is realistically about as close as a current GTAhole will ever get to a Stanley Cup celebration in his lifetime, so it’s understandable, though still pathetic.)

#30 Darts on 01.23.19 at 6:31 pm

I could see them coming out with some sort of interest free loan scheme for first time bag holders. That should provide enough stimulus to keep the markets propped up past the election.

#31 Anthony on 01.23.19 at 6:32 pm

Make houses more affordable by increasing buying power. Solid plan.

#32 Investx on 01.23.19 at 6:38 pm

“In the end, as I have learned, it comes down to votes cast by people who gave it all six minutes of thought.”

“Democracy, which is a charming form of government, full of variety and disorder, and dispensing a sort of equality to equals and unequaled alike.” – Socrates

#33 Wouldnt the Libs want to ... on 01.23.19 at 6:38 pm

reduce the TFSA allowance again so the “rich” don’t get another break? Sheeple all but demanded it last go round.

#34 Ministry of Truth on 01.23.19 at 6:39 pm

#7 The Greater Cauliflower on 01.23.19 at 5:27 pm
—-
You are OK for now, here is why;

https://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/tfsa/this-bay-st-trader-managed-to-amass-1-25-million-in-his-tfsa-now-the-taxman-wants-to-know-how

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/pattie-lovett-reid-signs-the-cra-may-come-after-your-tfsa-1.795967

https://www.moneysense.ca/save/investing/tfsa/taxman-after-your-tfsa-unlikely/

#35 expat on 01.23.19 at 6:39 pm

Toronto Developer goes down

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/the-market/article-toronto-developer-seeking-creditor-protection-leaves-condo-buyers-in/

#36 Eaglebay on 01.23.19 at 6:43 pm

#12 yvr_lurker on 01.23.19 at 5:42 pm
My family, and most of our friends, gave it about 10 years of thought, and realized that the next generation in YVR
__________

Wow, 10 years to decide to vote NDP. Maybe another 10 years to realize that you’ve been screwed.

#37 Keith in Rio on 01.23.19 at 6:43 pm

Scheer is a bimbo……….Trudeau is globalism hand puppet……….I can’t stand either so I won’t bother voting as it really doesn’t matter to me anymore. Kanaduh is toast as we know it.

#38 Not 1st on 01.23.19 at 6:52 pm

6 minutes. I’ve known who I was going to vote for like yea ago. ABT

Man millennials must be dumb as a bag of hammers. Trudeau is enslaving them and they are voting for it.

#39 Dave on 01.23.19 at 6:52 pm

Most of the rise in real estate to ridiculous levels as well as the money laundering through real estate happened on Stephen Harper’s watch, and Crooked Christy Clark in BC. Trudeau is inept, but he didn’t create the conditions that cause the housing bubble.

#40 50 YEARS OF MAPLE LEAF INCOMPETENCE! on 01.23.19 at 6:52 pm

“The first time I lost was in 1993 when the Progressive Conservative party, which I had run to be leader of, was decimated. Flamed. Annihilated, thanks to Reform Party vote-splitting.”

You forgot the biggest game changer in that election. The disgusting campaign ad that the PCs produced, insensitively mocking Jean Chretien’s facial appearance due to a disability.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_Chr%C3%A9tien_attack_ad

This basically wiped out the PCs in Ontario and Quebec.

And who was the despicable, soulless campaign director robotic piece of sh*t who launched that appalling and discriminatory ad, and didn’t even want to withdraw it in spite of its hateful message and the backlash it created?

Why, of course, that was John Tory. It surely helped qualify him to become Mayor of Toronto.

A perfect match for a pathetic and divided 5th rate urban wasteland. A hate-mongering rich white guy who lives a sheltered life and hangs out in Muskoka, while claiming he can represent Gays, Blacks and all the diverse people of that city.

What fools. No wonder it’s going down the toilet bowl there….

#41 Kelly Barnes on 01.23.19 at 6:57 pm

$48K in RRSP / TFSA since Aug 2014
Started a bit slower but now doing an avg of $1K per month since Jan 2016

#42 Oakville Sucks on 01.23.19 at 7:00 pm

WHO THE @#$% WOULD VOTE FOR THE LIBERALS AND TRU-DOPE IN 2019 ??????????????

#43 Bob Dog on 01.23.19 at 7:02 pm

Whenever I read the words, Liberal, Neo-con, Leftist, conservative, Right, Left, I just substitute the word “Poor”.

1400 private jets headed to Davos this week. None of the planes contain liberals or conservatives, They contain billionaires. As long as the poor are divided against each other, the billionaires will gain more and more wealth while the poor fight over the crumbs.

The only way to solve the acute housing crisis in Canada is to go on a China style building frenzy. We need to build entire cities to keep up with growth. 23,000 people have moved to Canada so far this year. There is still no place for them to live.

#44 Ryan on 01.23.19 at 7:05 pm

‘If you’re dumb enough to vote; you’re dumb enough to believe ’em’

#45 IHCTD9 on 01.23.19 at 7:06 pm

I’d love to see 30 year amortizations. It would not be long after that before every single SFD in the gta is well over a million, and anything decent is 2 million. Better lower the down payment requirements while they’re at it. Nothing like spending damn near your entire working career wearing a shoulder yoke.

Let’s put the pedal to the metal and open all four barrels of howling mad insanity. I’d guess within 2 years of going back to 30 year mortgages, every big city, non home owning dude and dudette under the age of 40 would be packing up and bugging out of places like the GTA and YVR like their @sses are on fire. It would be “Game Over”, and few would be digging for another quarter watching every dump on the block selling for 7 figures.

If those balloon heads in Ottawa actually go ahead with something like this, I am going to have to hire in flat bed loads of popcorn just to keep up with the news.

#46 Joe Schmoe on 01.23.19 at 7:09 pm

“In the end, as I have learned, it comes down to votes cast by people who gave it all six minutes of thought.”

about twice as long as it takes to write party platforms…”we don’t really have to do any of this do we?”

Politicians are about as educated as the voters these days.

#47 armpit on 01.23.19 at 7:10 pm

With the excess Spending, the T2’s slogan has changed from “do as I say, not as I do”, to “do as I do”.

#48 Dave on 01.23.19 at 7:18 pm

Incredible incompetence by the former corrupt BC Liberals has caused much of this mess in BC real estate. One of the easiest countries to launder money in and Trudeau has done nothing to stop this. BC is under resourced and cannot keep up with the criminals. Who cut the budget for this? Oh, the BC Liberals. Why do we allow half of the most expensive homes in Vancouver to be owned by numbered companies?

#49 50 YEARS OF MAPLE LEAF INCOMPETENCE! on 01.23.19 at 7:22 pm

Re: the 1993 election disaster for the PCs

Credit where credit is due:

The honorable host of this blog had a moral backbone and stood against the despicable actions of Toronturd John Tory, and his hate campaign against Chretien.

““But John,” I argued, “this is a disaster. You’ve gotta pull that ad. It’s ugly, crass and pissing people off.”

But he refused. The ‘face’ TV spot continued to air for days more, showing close-ups of Liberal leader Jean Chretien’s puss, contorted, drawing undue attention to his mild deformity. Almost from the moment it was first broadcast, phones lit up across Canada (and in my riding) with people expressing disgust. The needle was pushed for many from ‘undecided’ to ‘anybody-but-a-Tory.’”

(from GF, April 23, 2018)

https://www.greaterfool.ca/2018/04/23/tale-of-two-cities-2/

The true underlying character of Toronto and the GTA is sadly very well-reflected in the actual persona and underlying values of people like its current mayor. They chirp out talk about diversity blah, blah, blah, while happy to dog whistle about what they really care about, a better life for the wealthy Muskoka commuter class and the establishment status quo. The lower classes in Scarborough and Etobicoke are just there to be duped into voting against their own interests.

So many places in the rest of Canada are so vastly superior to the GTA in terms of quality of life, but the losers who live there will likely never know.

Sell your Leafs tickets on eBay, sell your crapshack (HURRY!!!) and get out if you want a real Canadian life

#50 not 1st on 01.23.19 at 7:24 pm

#12 yvr_lurker on 01.23.19 at 5:42 pm
#9 Michael King on 01.23.19 at 5:33 pm
—-

You two earn the double facepalm of the evening. Like voting to not have an economy is going to solve anything. That is why Canada is failing.

#51 Blackdog on 01.23.19 at 7:24 pm

Slightly off topic, but some may find it interesting to know that the lawsuit against the Canadian government for cowtowing to USA’s FATCA will be heard in federal court this Monday January 28th. I understand there will be a live feed for interested Canadians to watch. Regardless the outcome, it is expected to go to supreme court next. If the Canadian plaintiffs win, it will be interesting to see how Canadian banks react. Will they break Canadian law or US law?

#52 Politics and RE on 01.23.19 at 7:33 pm

BC’s provincial government could move to the Interior. Drying up Victoria’s property market and creating a boon for places like Kamloops. The seat would be more central as well. Just one example..

Canada is the 2nd largest country on the planet and a stupid building lot in a place like Mission, BC costs $500,000 somewhere in the sticks. Just because.

That’s what is wrong with Canada and unless politics make some really uncomfortable decisions to free up land, flooding the market with buildable land with access to services, there is no hope of land prices coming down.

Speculators have assembled land and sliced and carved up entire regions for their benefit. The sky is the limit on their greed and the munis have obliged and signed off on just about every proposal. Land should have never been allowed to be bought and sold as speculative commodity. Land should be owned by the people, by government and released into buildable phases if and when the need arises. That would have taken the hot speculative run up in prices out of the equation.

Now there’s little land left outside the so called ALR in the Lower Mainland for example and people have no choice but to pay these crazy prices for anything from condo, to townhouse, to house. Prices can’t have a meaningful correction and wages can’t go higher to bring back affordability.

I don’t see any path to affordability unless government changes legislation, plans a new city and opens up Crown Land as cheap building land.

#53 AK on 01.23.19 at 7:38 pm

“As we approach, polls show Cons and Libs about even, the NDP in collapse and the Mad Max party an unknown outlier.”
====================================
The polls are totally useless.

The polls also had Doug Ford trailing the NDP right up to the election, and we know how that ended.

#54 Braj on 01.23.19 at 7:40 pm

#7 The Greater Cauliflower on 01.23.19 at 5:27 pm
I’m curious what people have in their TFSA.
(To compare if i am doing okay or not)
I have $86K

***

….

#55 AGuyInVancouver on 01.23.19 at 7:43 pm

So the federal Liberals will likely consider a first-time buyers loan that resembles that brought forth by Christy Clark and the BC Lie-berals? God help us. For a minute it seemed like the feds realized an overheated housing market was actually a problem, but now they’re going to do a 180 turn. Only an external black swan that forces us into a recession might help us now.

#56 Pex Rockhard on 01.23.19 at 7:50 pm

Since I know that the Liberal brain trust trolls Garth’s comment section for policy ideas, here’s a start:

– make property ownership a right of citizenship; no sale of land to foreigners or permanent residents
– wind down the CMHC; no insurance of any kind for new mortgages (banks assume all the risk)
– prohibit amortizations longer than 15 years
– introduce an escalating federal land transfer tax; affordable houses are not taxed, multi-million dollar palaces are taxed obscenely (in the neighbourhood of 50%); the tax is paid by the seller

#57 not 1st on 01.23.19 at 7:51 pm

There will be a time in the future that some politician somewhere, probably a liberal who will target these TFSAs once they get bigger. They will be accused of being a fatcat investment and for the rich and all that and somebody will try to tax them.

I guarantee 100% if you ever see the spread between US/CDN dollar at a dime or so again, people will exit so much capital out of this country it will make your head spin.

#58 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.23.19 at 7:52 pm

I would say that a lot of voters in the last election looked around at the “options” in the run up to “anyone but Harper” and picked the least distasteful.
Trudeau has had 4 years of “selfies”, Mr. Dressups, stuttering inanities, tax hikes, grotesque deficits, Politically Correct spoonfed pablum for the sheeple stupid enough to believe it…… on and on and on.
The voters everywhere are tired of the BS.
The next 8 months wont be boring for his handlers.
If Ontario goes Conservative and Quebec votes enmass for Mad Max…….
Oh baby.
IF he wins…it will be a minority govt.

#59 adee on 01.23.19 at 7:59 pm

what policies would you enact?

#60 Out Of Work CEO, Will Travel on 01.23.19 at 7:59 pm

The Bank of Canada credit based policy is representative of the millennials generation’s economy. Any consideration of the normal risk reward requirement of business and economy is diminished and not rewarded tilting Canada into a lower and lower returns not offset by increasing credit. The housing “ponzi” scam when it does collapse may be our salvation.

#61 Gary C on 01.23.19 at 8:22 pm

If the Liberals are elected again kiss the Canadian Dollar
er Peso goodby. More promises, more government debt.

Oh, increased CPP contributions, for employers, employees, to fund underfunded government workers
pension plan.

Are the Lberals trying to destroy small business.?

#62 Paully on 01.23.19 at 8:26 pm

Shut down the CMHC. Watch house prices fall to an affordable level. Easy. Peasy!

#63 45north on 01.23.19 at 8:32 pm

Finance guy Bill Morneau said as much this week.
The feds will soon, he announced, unveil ways “to make home buying more affordable to millennials.” Of course it was a moister wave that helped push T2 over the top in 2015, but since then real estate’s only become less affordable – in large part due to the government’s own actions. Now that the Mills are utterly house horny and in full nesting mode, expect this to be a central issue in the October campaign.

A young couple spent the last year making half-a-dozen offers on houses, each time to lose to a higher bidder. The young couple being my son and his wife. They know they’re in a bidding war. Not much point in raising everybody’s bid.

#64 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.23.19 at 8:34 pm

@#144 RyYYZ
“we did own a cottage in Pugwash for years,

++++

Ah Pugwash.
The Salt capital of Canada.
i was golfing at Northumberland Links a few summers back. Excellent little course on the strait.
Stayed at a private cottage with excellent views.
Listened to the private jets spooling up to take off from Tim Hortons mogul Ron Joyce’s Fox Harbour golf course a few miles down the coast…when Colin Powell and his rich pals were leaving… 6 Lear Jets…one after another….

https://www.foxharbr.com/media/

#65 Down and Out on 01.23.19 at 8:40 pm

You know is was wrong and illegal to hit the CTV guy but the contact made clear an injustice by a thoughtless cameraman who was jolted awake to the hurt he caused to an innocent family and it was all over in a instant .Now the hurt done to people who foolishly and legally over extended themselves without even a slap on the wrist will not end so quick and leave unseen scars forever. I am not condoning physical punishment you could have sold the cameraman some Nortel and really inflict some pain and I wish it was a CBC guy instead but did the right thing at the time .

#66 45north on 01.23.19 at 8:43 pm

Eaglebay: Wow, 10 years to decide to vote NDP. Another 10 years to realize that you’ve been screwed.

pretty funny

#67 Elections on 01.23.19 at 8:45 pm

This is going to be the most unpredictable election for 2019 in many a year from the past. I became involved with politics during High School, and have worked with all political parties in all governments in an array of positions. This coming election has me beat. One time the boss sent me to the Forest Hill poll to watch the voting, and we lost that one. A gal from another party asked me where I was going, and was off to the celebration headquarters at the Ports of Call. She gave a home address in Yorkville inviting me to the after party for the buffet and booze because their MP won, and we lost and hundreds showed up. The candidate who lost eventually became the head of CSIS, so in the end we all won something positive. Do not split the vote because its a two horse race.

#68 TRUMP2020 on 01.23.19 at 8:46 pm

CHECKMATE!!!!!

America’s puppets ( the T2 little rascals) trapped Ms. Huawei on the demand of American intelligence. China answered (Canadian prisoners getting their heads removed). Now the little rascals having second thoughts and are not going to hand her over to the Americans.

T2 is boxed in the corner now. No where to run.

This is not going to end well.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/trudeau-envoy-sees-strong-case-against-huawei-cfo-s-extradition-1.1202722

#69 Dolce Vita on 01.23.19 at 8:47 pm

October election talk in January.

That’s how you know people are pissed off.

The election will be about a failing economy blamed on Trudeau, rightly or wrongly.

He will lose badly and his seat where a 3 Headed Dog that is Liberal can normally get elected.

The knives are drawn. It will be about the groundswell of Liberal voters that crossed over to the Conservatives and nothing to do with the NDP, Green’s or Mad Max.

People are biding their time for now until October when they can dish out some payback.

Canadian’s are in an ugly mood and scared about their finances…that never ends well for a Government.

#70 ImGonnaBeSick on 01.23.19 at 8:51 pm

Good on ya Garth for socking that CTV camera guy.

#71 yvr_lurker on 01.23.19 at 9:00 pm

#50 Not 1st

You two earn the double facepalm of the evening. Like voting to not have an economy is going to solve anything. That is why Canada is failing.

—–
You must be one of those boomers who have the attitude that its perfectly fine to pull the ladder up, and to hell with the next generation trying to make a go of it in our major cities. If you don’t like it, move to a small city and get stuffed. Nobody cares about you.

I am a boomer with a paid off place, but with a different attitude. I actually care if my kid, his friends, my neighbours kids and the youth that I work with also have the same advantanges that I did years ago. Must the answer be, just ^&*^*& off and move to Kelowna, Regina, halifax, chibougamou, or should we try to elect people who actually care about the LOCAL population in our big cities, in an effort to make housing more affordable in YVR and BC. For this as a start one needs to put in measures to curb speculation, foreigners bidding up real estate, money launderers putting the proceeds of fentanyl sales into real estate etc…. If you don’t or are unwilling to understand this then you I see you as part of the problem… Horgan and Eby of the provincial NDP are at least trying to do something in this direction….

That being said, I could never vote for the federal NDP led by Singh, as he is incompetent to run anything…. he would kill the economy for sure….and he is all talk…. doesn’t hold a candle to Mulcair or Layton…

#72 millmech on 01.23.19 at 9:07 pm

It is the generation after the millennials that will be scary, I know so many pregnant women that use cannabis for morning sickness relief. They all believe it is a “natural” remedy for this condition.

https://www.thegrowthop.com/news/local-news/some-women-think-its-ok-to-smoke-pot-while-pregnant-ubc-report/wcm/c7bf7a0e-5954-4e05-a49f-f7017733002e

#73 Remembrancer on 01.23.19 at 9:16 pm

#52 Politics and RE on 01.23.19 at 7:33 pm
BC’s provincial government could move to the Interior. Drying up Victoria’s property market and creating a boon for places like Kamloops. The seat would be more central as well. Just one example..

Canada is the 2nd largest country on the planet and a stupid building lot in a place like Mission, BC costs $500,000 somewhere in the sticks. Just because.
————————————————————
Get a map, maybe a topographical one. Hint, 2nd largest doesn’t mean second most inhabitable land mass, meaningless trivia point, unless you’re marking out who gets what offshore resources as long as the next US president actually gives a crap about a western / G7 alliance, otherwise that goes to whomever sets up artificial islands with anti-ship/air missile batteries first…

BC gov moving to the interior, that’d be funny, which little town would be the Brasilia of the Left Coast if not Kamloops? Prince George? Not a good strategic position to be in though if Alberta invades to annex you all after the snow melts in the passes…

#74 Yellow Vest on 01.23.19 at 9:24 pm

“Vive la Revolution”

#75 Blacksheep on 01.23.19 at 9:26 pm

Learning, the hard way:

“Instead, look for the T2 gang to embrace some of the proposals hinted at here. Like a cap for the stress test. Currently borrowers have to prove they can carry loans at the higher of 5.34% or the rate their bank is offering plus 2%. The Bank of Canada may be raising rates once or twice prior to the election, so capping this – at, say 5% – is being seriously studied.

The other biggie is a return to 30-year amortizations. Right now CMHC will offer insurance only on terms of up to 25 years, so if you want a mortgage from a major lender that’s what you must accept. Longer ams spread out repayment and lower monthly payments. Yeah, they also mean you end up paying back a big pot of added interest, but nobody cares about that.

The Libs could also increase the limit on the Home Buyer’s Plan, which lets people raid their RRSPs for real estate downpayments, then gives 15 years to repay the stolen amount or have it added to taxable income. The current limit is $25,000 ($50,000 for a couple) and the funds need to have been in an RRSP for at least 90 days before being removed and spent. Some people in the Lib caucus want the amount doubled and the time period shortened.

Meanwhile realtors have been lobbying Ottawa to increase the HBTC – the Home Buyers Tax Credit. This lets buyers write off up to $5,000 in closing costs against their taxable income, and generally saves about $750. Piffle, say the realtors. Jack it up to provide some realistic relief – a tax savings of $2,500. Plus, CREA has also been lobbying the feds to focus help on those moisters most in need – poor hipsters in the GTA and YVR.

We’ll see what happens. Any of the above will not make houses cost less, of course. The ultimate effect will be just the opposite. Political ineptitude has been at the very heart of our real estate bubble, and we may soon witness one level of government (the feds) boosting the market while another (BC) tries to destroy it.”
——————————————
I have been on here for years, warning this will happen.

People will comment, “What ever they (the Libs) do, it will not affect the market” and I will respond with, they will do whatever they need to until they get the effect desired. Remember, they control the levers.

Do I think it will cause prices to run up? Hell no, but I think it will significantly lessen or maybe even stop the RE price declines.

Let see…who’s in a minority sich and likely to face a re election challenge in the not to distant future?

That’s right, Jonny H.

What % owns RE?

Boomer, Gen X or Millenials, its matters not because almost 3/4 of the voting population, are RE brothers in arms.

You really should have seen this coming….

#76 Madcat on 01.23.19 at 9:39 pm

All the Liberals have to say is that they will ban wealthy foreigners from snapping up are real estate and they will win…

#77 Leafs Nation on 01.23.19 at 9:54 pm

The Buds beat the defending Cup champs Washington. The Leafs rock!!!!!!

#78 akashic record on 01.23.19 at 9:59 pm

Any of the above will not make houses cost less, of course. – Garth

What would make houses cost less – without choking the economy and increase public debt, with higher interest rate?

Is there anything else, beside higher interest rate, to make houses or even rents cost less?

#79 Blog Dog Party of Canada on 01.23.19 at 9:59 pm

A call to all blog dogs across this great nation. Let us form a Blog Dog Party of Canada with the Right Honourable Mr. Turner as our leader and set this nation back on track! This is our moment fellow blog dogs!

#80 Remembrancer on 01.23.19 at 10:04 pm

#69 Dolce Vita on 01.23.19 at 8:47 pm
Canadian’s are in an ugly mood and scared about their finances…that never ends well for a Government.
————————————————————-
Unless Max splits the right (as our host predicts as a risk) and/or one or more of Scheer’s star candidates commit ritual political suicide getting quoted saying something stupid or racist or stupid racist that drives the middle away leaving a diverse coalition of social conservative groups that only agree on being anti-liberal and not liking people different than them…

#81 fishman on 01.23.19 at 10:12 pm

We got the same a**holes from CTV out west too.
A BCTV guy with a big camera kept pestering me for a comment. I told him I had nothing to say & kept moving away to a group of buddies. He kept on with my buds so I came up on his side & booted the big camera out of his hands. Then took a couple steps & kicked it spinning away on the concrete.
Well, this reporter started screaming” I’m gonna call the cops, you assaulted me, I’ve got witnesses”. It was funny as the guys were heading for the exits they were saying ” I didn’t see nothin”. The eyes on the smokin hot chick that always follows these guys around were as big as saucers as I hightailed past her. It ended well but I was nervous around camera guys for a few years.

#82 Doug in London on 01.23.19 at 10:16 pm

Wanna make houses cheaper? Simple, jack up interest rates.

#83 renter in Surrey on 01.23.19 at 10:20 pm

The other biggie is a return to 30-year amortizations.

————————————————————

Why stop at 30 years?
How about multi-generation mortgage for 50 – 100 years.
First 50 years interest only.

It’s just monopoly money any ways.

#84 akashic record on 01.23.19 at 10:36 pm

#72 millmech on 01.23.19 at 9:07 pm

It is the generation after the millennials that will be scary, I know so many pregnant women that use cannabis for morning sickness relief. They all believe it is a “natural” remedy for this condition.

https://www.thegrowthop.com/news/local-news/some-women-think-its-ok-to-smoke-pot-while-pregnant-ubc-report/wcm/c7bf7a0e-5954-4e05-a49f-f7017733002e

It is hard to know.

Tea brewed from poppy pods was successfully used for a millennia in many regions for analgesic, anti-diarrheal, and sedative medical effects.

Before the knowledge we have now on opiates and opioids and the synthetic drugs made from them, creating lethal addiction in alarming number of patients, who never used drugs before.

We also know for sure, that a pharmaceutical morning sickness drug is considered to be “the worst drug disaster in history”.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/thalidomide-explainer-1.4434746

#85 Ustabe on 01.23.19 at 10:49 pm

Let us use the Stephan Harper’s Conservative Party of Canada’s methodology they used on Trudeau only on Scheer.

Least educated modern day national party leader.

Bad hair.

Insurance salesman.

Harper deja vu.

Environmental views.

Views on woman’s health.

Guns. Seriously, look it up.

Even after all this time he remains an enigma to the majority of Canadians.

Any of you pinning your hopes on Scheer to lead government anytime soon would be far better off working, starting now, at the local level to ensure that the type of person who would resonate with a majority of Canadian might begin to percolate up the ranks. Maybe in three election cycles you might have the beginnings of an electable party.

This north and lite version of the GOP won’t fly. Despite your fevered wishes.

#86 Ravi on 01.23.19 at 11:16 pm

$ 21428 in tfsa. very little financial education before coming to Canada. 43-year-old immigrant. 15 years in Canada. 49k in RRSP. Learning a lot from Garth. Appreciate

#87 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.23.19 at 11:38 pm

@#65 Down and Out
“….. an injustice by a thoughtless cameraman who was jolted awake to the hurt he caused to an innocent family and it was all over in a instant…”

++++
Aint the first time a cameraman deserved a punch.

When Stockwell Day won the Leadership of the Canadian Aliance party and he was heading to the stage to make his victory speech with his family the “live feed” went out across Canada on the CBC news.

One of the behind the scenes cameramen didnt realize the switch was open when he told his CBC buddies in Toronto “Check out Stockwell Day’s Daughter in Law… she’s got **** that would stop a bus!”

Silence…… scrambling…..the news anchor began babbling like Trudeau at a press scrum…..”uhhh, errrrr, ummm… we seem to be having technical difficulties…..”

#88 Joe on 01.23.19 at 11:44 pm

You must be one of those boomers who have the attitude that its perfectly fine to pull the ladder up, and to hell with the next generation trying to make a go of it in our major cities. If you don’t like it, move to a small city and get stuffed. Nobody cares about you.

I am a boomer with a paid off place, but with a different attitude. I actually care if my kid, his friends, my neighbours kids and the youth that I work with also have the same advantanges that I did years ago.

I’m sorry, but I find this remark incredibly ironic. You do realize, don’t you, that you’re part of the problem? By squatting in a “paid off place” that you no longer need, you are constricting supply and driving up prices for young families that do.

#89 Sask to AB on 01.23.19 at 11:45 pm

re#7 The Greater Cauliflower on 01.23.19 at 5:27 pm

65.3K

#90 DON on 01.24.19 at 12:14 am

#36 Eaglebay on 01.23.19 at 6:43 pm

#12 yvr_lurker on 01.23.19 at 5:42 pm
My family, and most of our friends, gave it about 10 years of thought, and realized that the next generation in YVR
__________

Wow, 10 years to decide to vote NDP. Maybe another 10 years to realize that you’ve been screwed.
*************

If I am correct in your Eagle Bay location I assume you voted for the BC Liberal MLA who when in government took away bus passes from People with disabilities.

Have you seen the news about the BC Leg, seems to be the tip of the iceberg in Best Corruption province.

#91 Not So New guy on 01.24.19 at 12:54 am

I would argue the last election was more about firing Haper the imperialist and general hater of the poor and old than it was about voting for the shiny new kid with good hair.

As it usually is in Canadian politics.

If only we spent as much energy hiring a good replacement as we do firing the last guy this country could be half decently governed

#92 Fortune500 on 01.24.19 at 1:00 am

The single best thing that they could do to help affordability is raise rates. Yes, this would cause bleeding, but in the longer term it will benefit not just the Millenials, but the generation coming after them.

A crash would really help affordability and is long overdue. Just as we start a minor downturn the politicians lose their nerve.

Everything mentioned in your post will just add gas to the already blazing fire and reignite the property bubble. This will increase house prices and negate all of the posturing.

#93 Barb on 01.24.19 at 1:04 am

Garth, bet you had less drool on your beard than tonight’s featured guest!

Seriously, how different life in Canada could’ve been had you become PC leader!
By extension (because you would’ve done such a good job, naturally), we’d never have seen T2 on the public dime!

Sad indeed that your father’s condition, and emotion at your loss that night, was seen as a photo opp for the idiot from CTV. How proud your Mom and Dad would have been of you! Both for letting your name stand AND kapowing the CTV fellow. We would all have reacted in a like manner, believe me.

I’ve often wished for only a two-party system in Canada. The perpetual risk of vote-splitting in Canadian politics is frightening. I recall BC’s NDP getting a second term in the 90’s for that very reason, as though we hadn’t had enough of them after one term. Max’s defection promises another nail-biter. Singh has entirely blown any chance, and the entire country knows he will never fill Jack Layton’s shadow.

T2’s record of “job creation” isn’t what the media reports. Canadian companies did some hiring in the Fall as companies ramped up production to fill pre-tariff orders from American customers. I believe it WAS due to pre-tariff orders, and we’ll soon see if 1st Q lay-offs become permanent. They were part-time jobs.

Ah…the budget. Seems the Libs are keen to hear our ideas, which can be emailed to [email protected].
I’ve sent mine, among which is to decrease the budget going forward, and balance it. Oh, and perhaps forget about paying $600 million to buy a seat on the National Security Council.

So Morneau’s finding a way to make home buying more affordable for millenials? The posturing and discrimination still won’t get them a house they can afford. They need to learn to drive PAST Starbucks each and every morning.

I’ll close my eyes tonight wishing Mr. T had become leader of the Conservatives. And all would be well.
I can dream.

#94 Where's The Money Greedeau? on 01.24.19 at 2:24 am

Re: #51 Blackdog on 01.23.19 at 7:24 pm
Slightly off topic, but some may find it interesting to know that the lawsuit against the Canadian government for cowtowing to USA’s FATCA will be heard in federal court this Monday January 28th. I understand there will be a live feed for interested Canadians to watch. Regardless the outcome, it is expected to go to supreme court next. If the Canadian plaintiffs win, it will be interesting to see how Canadian banks react. Will they break Canadian law or US law?
+++++++++++++++++++++++
It doesn’t matter, they already got your banking info if you have a bank account in Canada and use online banking or the ATM.
Check out MX Technologies: https://craft.co/mx-technologies, the ones behind the Money managers in your bank accounts.
This company has their program installed in all major banks and Coast Capital Credit union in BC.
Started by American Insurance Company Conglomerate including Army connections/hedge funds in 2010.
How long have you had your money manager on your account and bought life/disability insurance/credit card from the same bank related company.
You can be sure to lose your claim after they go through ALL your transactions since 2010 to get something on you.
And people whine about Statscan…..
Better go back to buying everything with CASH!

#95 Smoking Man on 01.24.19 at 2:31 am

Davos, where suck ups and weak minded fools get drunk together because they are frightened of the herd and getting drunk alone.

They carve out school curriculums, MSM talking points. Select compliant and obedient prime ministers and presidents.

And then came Trump and the deplorables. 2 years of resistance vs 50 years of back room mind fking. now we have the Yellow Vests.

Coming to a city near you soon. Long live rural people. Saving the world from tyrants is now in your hands the employees and girly men working at Star Bucks can’t help. Mind Nutered by teachers.

Alberta men, construction workers and masculinity. Canada’s future prosperity is depending on you.
And you will do it.

Dr Smoking Man
PhD Herdonomics.

#96 mark on 01.24.19 at 2:33 am

You beat up a guy from CTV? You’re a wilder man than I thought.

#97 Where's The Money Greedeau? on 01.24.19 at 2:33 am

Re: #48 Dave on 01.23.19 at 7:18 pm
Incredible incompetence by the former corrupt BC Liberals has caused much of this mess in BC real estate. One of the easiest countries to launder money in and Trudeau has done nothing to stop this. BC is under resourced and cannot keep up with the criminals. Who cut the budget for this? Oh, the BC Liberals. Why do we allow half of the most expensive homes in Vancouver to be owned by numbered companies?
+++++++++++++++++++++++
You really believe it’s incompetence?
Why do you think Rich Coleman-former cop- was Minister of so many portfolios in his long tenure in BC. And look to see what carnage was left behind.
He still was a junior to Geoff Plant, that the top Clerk of BC gov’t still runs to, to get his marching orders and former BC Premier Gredo Campbell had at his side to start the plundering of BC, starting with BC Rail and BC Hydro-IPPs.
Just have a look at what that guy had/has his fingers in and you’ll see.

#98 Where's The Money Greedo? (for Ontario) on 01.24.19 at 2:52 am

Re: #53 AK on 01.23.19 at 7:38 pm
“As we approach, polls show Cons and Libs about even, the NDP in collapse and the Mad Max party an unknown outlier.”
====================================
The polls are totally useless.

The polls also had Doug Ford trailing the NDP right up to the election, and we know how that ended.
+++++++++++++++++++++
Maybe Ontario should look into the Clerk of the Ontario Legislature like BC.
You know Greedo Campbell is now in Ontario spreading his tentacles, surely about to use the same shenanigans he used in BC. I’d look at the Chief Electoral Officer also, if he hasn’t been promoted for the Druggie win.
Craig James, BC’s Chief Electoral Officer in 2010, pushed into place of Top Clerk of the BC Ledge by the BC Liberals ahead of better candidates, will more than likely be found to have gone on a spending spree right after, when the forensic audit is done of the BC Ledge, well, if there is one.

#99 conan on 01.24.19 at 4:42 am

#42 Oakville Sucks on 01.23.19 at 7:00 pm
WHO THE @#$% WOULD VOTE FOR THE LIBERALS AND TRU-DOPE IN 2019 ??????????????

I am voting for them.

Conservatives need to shed their snake skins and get progressive again. If the polls are close at election time, Greens and NDP will vote Liberal. Harper 2.0 is not happening.

#100 Boomer Bill on 01.24.19 at 5:57 am

#88 Joe on 01.23.19 at 11:44 pm

“I’m sorry, but I find this remark incredibly ironic. You do realize, don’t you, that you’re part of the problem? By squatting in a “paid off place” that you no longer need, you are constricting supply and driving up prices for young families that do.”

What are you proposing boomers with paid off homes do? Give them away to millenials? Please elaborate.

#101 Asterix1 on 01.24.19 at 6:52 am

Toronto Star:
Title: “Ottawa should tweak mortgage stress test before election: Report”

“…….says the author of a report released Wednesday by Mortgage Professionals Canada.”

Journalism ethics and standards in Canada disappeared a long time ago!!

#102 Howard on 01.24.19 at 6:54 am

#85 Ustabe on 01.23.19 at 10:49 pm

Can I introduce you to Doug Ford, you poor deluded behind-the-times cultural marxist?

#103 Ace Goodheart on 01.24.19 at 7:02 am

“Finance guy Bill Morneau said as much this week.

The feds will soon, he announced, unveil ways “to make home buying more affordable to millennials.”

-waiting for this with quite a bit of fear in my mind….

They don’t call him “wild Bill” for no reason.

Remember this is the guy who wanted to equalize the masses by taxing the crap out of the retirement savings of the self employed small business person.

I am dreading, but expecting, some form of national housing speculation tax, which would require everyone to pay some sort of uber tax on their houses for various reasons.

Designed to knock down house prices so that lazy basement dwelling young folks don’t need to get real jobs.

An aping of the mass slaughter currently occurring in BC.

I hope I am wrong about this…..

#104 Headhunter on 01.24.19 at 7:26 am

1st born son in New Brunswick now.. never coming back he says. Not worth the effort in Ontario. Breaks my heart but he’s “manned up” and doing his thing.

Daughter back with her Mom from living 2 years in “Godless T.O.” Too expensive to live on 45K. Basically working just to survive no $$ left to enjoy anything.

2nd son Electrician living like a madman! I have 3 kids.. Not may 3 kid households these days.

Ever been to Dearborn or Ann Arbour Michigan? Albany NY. Finger lakes area. You would think you were in Ontario. Very decent house is in the 150-250K range. Why does housing cost so much here? Think about it? Guy I know is trying to sell his house in Orillia for 450K.. Just saw a posting of a 30 year old shack in Tottenham On for 600K.. in the middle of a farmers field.

Goes against the grain I know.. If you won the housing lottery cash er in now. Will never get a better price.

There are no “Greater Fools” to come behind and bail you out, Immigrants can’t/won’t. Next generation? The sharing economy kids? “Good Luck”

#105 not 1st on 01.24.19 at 7:54 am

#99 conan on 01.24.19 at 4:42 am
—-

Maybe its better you just skip the vote and stay home a light up a big one.

The adults in the country will step up and save it for you once again.

#106 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.24.19 at 8:02 am

@#99 conan
“I am voting for them.”
****

I have to agree that Scheer isnt the most palatable option….but then again, neither was Trudeau in the last election….
I refuse to vote in another 4 years of ruinous tax and grotesque spend spend spend policy. I wont be voting for T2

#107 not 1st on 01.24.19 at 8:06 am

#71 yvr_lurker on 01.23.19 at 9:00 pm

—–
I am no boomer, gen x and maybe if you stopped relying on govt to solve your problems that would help immensely. They don’t solve problems, they only create them and they created the conditions for the housing bubble, now you want them to solve it.

The NDP care about only one thing, getting to peoples wealth and distributing it to others who don’t deserve it. As you can see from Venezuela, that doesn’t work.
The greens all want to live on Haida Gwaii and sing campfire songs.

This is what you are voting for. Don’t be surprised then when your cost of living goes through the roof and your kids cant afford to live there.

#108 TurnerNation on 01.24.19 at 8:08 am

What’s the long term plan? Better beleive our elites have planned way ahead. Google: UN Agenda 2030. It blathers on about inclusivity, “safe cities” and “Food security”.
Right, the meat I buy jumped 10% in price this year.
The parade of people with smirking faces pretending to lead us (Ford, Andrew S). Right.

Some have said the long term goal is turning USA, Canada in to gigantic welfare state. Any evidence to this, any huge change in ?
City of Toronto homeless population huge increase chart major trend upwards: https://i.imgur.com/fGcrR0v.png

– US Government shut down…has forced people onto welfare. Concidence you say? Ok..keep watching.

– All those “temporary” shelters I keep saying are not. Read the devistating impact on our communities here. And police will not attend and stick up for you.

https://old.reddit.com/r/toronto/comments/ai4nok/respite_shelter_forces_hood_into_lockdown/


Laws? They will not be enforced for the following reason, laws are bad you know. Very bad as all media agree:

https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2019/01/23/ttc-plans-to-hire-dozens-of-fare-inspectors-to-deter-people-from-skipping-out-on-paying.html
crack down on riders who skip out on paying but which critics warn could lead to increased discrimination against users who are low-income or people of colour.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/distracted-driving-law-minorities-ontario-1.4964953

#109 Howard on 01.24.19 at 8:12 am

#100 Boomer Bill on 01.24.19 at 5:57 am
#88 Joe on 01.23.19 at 11:44 pm

“I’m sorry, but I find this remark incredibly ironic. You do realize, don’t you, that you’re part of the problem? By squatting in a “paid off place” that you no longer need, you are constricting supply and driving up prices for young families that do.”

What are you proposing boomers with paid off homes do? Give them away to millenials? Please elaborate.

————————————

Clearly he’s proposing that Boomers sell their empty-nest McMansions and downsize just like previous generations did.

Of course nobody is obligated to sell if they don’t wish to. What the Boomers will instead do is remain in their mcmansions indefinitely, using reverse mortgages to drain the equity to zero thereby leaving zilch to their stressed-out kids (or worse, leaving a debt that the kids will have to repay). A final ha-ha to the Millennials. It’s just the Boomer way.

#110 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.24.19 at 8:17 am

@#85 ustabe
“Least educated modern day national party leader.”
++++

Please.
If the “qualifications” for party leader were above average intelligence and multiple university degrees we would be nominating Nobel prize winners.

Personally I believe the unholy financial, social, environmental and political mess our former and current “leaders” have wrought is due in some measure that they “experimented” with horseshit some professor dreamt up at some point in their cloistered, tenured , theoretical view of “how things should be done”.
Just ask Macron of France how his “superior intellect” and “Jupiterian” ideas are working against a seething, screaming mob of voters enraged at tax increases and govt cuts.

And if you think Trudeau is educated and intelligent enough to have figured a way to “spending his way out of this mess”…think again.
He’s taking the easy route.
The hard way is Cretien and Martin cutting services, and reducing the national debt ( all while the provinces ramped THEIR spending up)
The cuts and tax increases are merely being pushed futher and further down the road for the Millenials and their offspring (Cannabliss-ennials) to reap.
We Boomers will be long dead before the financial crap truly hits the fan.
Vote away.

#111 Dave Ahem on 01.24.19 at 8:33 am

This is a fascinating theory on why house prices have risen so much in North America. Basically, land availability is inelastic and bank credit has grown exponentially so supply of land is finite and supply of credit to acquire it is infinite and so prices can only continue to rise unless drastic policy changes are implemented:

https://medium.com/iipp-blog/why-cant-you-afford-a-home-9c5cf009be21

#112 not 1st on 01.24.19 at 8:38 am

T2 has done nothing but front load the economy again on the backs of the future generations. Took $100B in debt out of Canadas back pocket and spent it into thin air. And the socialists and marxists fall genuflect at the progressive alter.

If he has rocked the economy so much, why is IMF predicting 1.5-1.6% GDP for the next 5 years. A technical recession or probably worse. Debt that will never be paid back. You gonna vote for that because you don’t like Harpers hair from 10 yrs ago. Maybe they don’t have kids or don’t care and many newcomers to Canada aren’t aware of the economic details. So a large swath of 6 minute uneducated don’t care voter out there. But some Canadians have seen this movie before and know how it ends.

#113 Remembrancer on 01.24.19 at 9:02 am

#104 Headhunter on 01.24.19 at 7:26 am
Just saw a posting of a 30 year old shack in Tottenham On for 600K.. in the middle of a farmers field.
——————————————————–
Tottenham? A quick realtor.com search roughly bounded by Routes 18 / 27 /1 /9 has 130 listings and I need to go to the middle of page 10 of 11 pages to find one under $619K. Taking off #1, the 173 acres for $10M noted as not being in the Morraine so easy to pave over, the first “house” is a mere $8M including < 100 acre former farm – different universe up there for sure…

#114 dharma bum on 01.24.19 at 9:09 am

“I struck a guy from CTV. ” – Garth
——————————————————————–

Classic. Garth taking out the trash.

Luckily, I was able to track down the archived footage:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YYftB0zcn9A

LOOK OUT!

#115 Jacky Wang on 01.24.19 at 9:30 am

Desperate lying Liberal Globalist Marxists spewing fear nonsense non stop at Davos. Since most major leaders didn’t attend the leftist media has only been interviewing hard left nut jobs spewing climate nonsense and higher taxation to punish western civilization for our success as a society. Trudeau is a top lickspittle in the effort to subjugate and rob you.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/24/ecb-interest-rate-decision-january-2019.html

The liars and hate squads of the wacko left are suckering is into believing that the coordinated global growth has turned into a deep slide into a coordinated global slowdown because Trump isn’t playing ball on ratcheting up taxes on the phony climate front and stuffing the ballot boxes in western democracies with angry religions in the quest to undermine civilization and replace with a new Hitler style regime where Liberals replace freedom with slavery. God bless Donald Trump.

#116 Observations From a Budding Cynic on 01.24.19 at 9:39 am

If we return to longer amortizations and other measures to pave the way for those who desire houses to obtain them, you would be correct in calling this path the road to hell paved as it were by good intentions. But are they good intentions?

My cynical side says that we are effectively locking in people who take the bait into a life of servitude and almost guaranteeing that they become committed to being the most compliant people on the planet. They will have to comply and toe the line because they will be indebted up to their back teeth. And yes, there will be taxes, the scope and breadth of which will be numbing and soul-destroying.

At least they will have access to legal marijuana.

Robert Stanfield, where are you now? Your country needs you.

#117 Duke on 01.24.19 at 9:53 am

#104 Headhunter on 01.24.19 at 7:26 am
1st born son in New Brunswick now.. never coming back he says. Not worth the effort in Ontario. Breaks my heart but he’s “manned up” and doing his thing.

Daughter back with her Mom from living 2 years in “Godless T.O.” Too expensive to live on 45K. Basically working just to survive no $$ left to enjoy anything.

2nd son Electrician living like a madman! I have 3 kids.. Not may 3 kid households these days.

Ever been to Dearborn or Ann Arbour Michigan? Albany NY. Finger lakes area. You would think you were in Ontario. Very decent house is in the 150-250K range. Why does housing cost so much here? Think about it? Guy I know is trying to sell his house in Orillia for 450K.. Just saw a posting of a 30 year old shack in Tottenham On for 600K.. in the middle of a farmers field.

Goes against the grain I know.. If you won the housing lottery cash er in now. Will never get a better price.

There are no “Greater Fools” to come behind and bail you out, Immigrants can’t/won’t. Next generation? The sharing economy kids? “Good Luck”

===================

I am with you 100%. House prices in Canada are simply ridiculous and won’t stay there. The only reason RE prices went up so high is Chinese investors. Back in late 80’s, similar buying frenzy of RE happened with the same reason but in much smaller scale and magnitude. This RE bubble is so much bigger and the shock wave will be so much greater.

I am glad RE issue in Canada is the thing of the past for me.

#118 Blackdog on 01.24.19 at 9:57 am

@#94, there is a big difference between financial institutions having access to your data versus the Canadian government specifically rounding up the bank account details(balances,etc) of Canadians living, working and banking in Canada, and then sending that private information to the IRS so that they can impose bankrupting penalties on Canadians for not reporting their so-called “foreign”(local to the Canadian) bank accounts to USA’s Financial Crime Enforcement Network every year. The Canadian government is in effect agreeing that every Canadian with a US birthplace is owned by the USA and a criminal for not fessing up to their hidden, offshore accounts at home in Canada. This is charter challenge stuff important to ALL Canadians not just those born in the wrong country.

#119 IHCTD9 on 01.24.19 at 9:57 am

#99 conan on 01.24.19 at 4:42 am
#42 Oakville Sucks on 01.23.19 at 7:00 pm
WHO THE @#$% WOULD VOTE FOR THE LIBERALS AND TRU-DOPE IN 2019 ??????????????

I am voting for them.

Conservatives need to shed their snake skins and get progressive again. If the polls are close at election time, Greens and NDP will vote Liberal. Harper 2.0 is not happening.
_____

I will likely vote for him as well.

I really like what I see with Trudeau. He is unable to get Trump to do anything for Canada – yet unable to resist Trump when the US wants something from us. He gets booted out of China with no trade deal. He has pissed off a big chunk of the Middle East, – half the planet really. He has accelerated BILLIONS worth of manufacturing and resource investment leaving the country. Dressing himself and his poor family up like morons in India. Killing off huge resource projects, buying them for billions more; and putting the taxpayer on the hook for all of it.

If we can get Trudeau in with another majority, the payoff will be more of the same dunce cap wearing, Portland shoveling; blockhead management – plus new financial destruction for Canadians (like increasing RE prices by 1.5X +). Just what the Doctor ordered.

I could not expect such catastrophic, grid down collapse inducing leadership from any other candidate; other than Jagmeet (who won’t win). So Trudeau is my man for 2019.

Maybe Canadians will have suffered enough by 2023.

I have Trudeau-proofed the IHCTD9 compound in preparation, and I am already a hard target for taxation. It’s only going to get more and more difficult to extract funding from me as time goes on. Any revenue tools in the works will need to be rigorously enforced, or I’ll side-step or ignore them. The house is paid for, the debt is zero, the portfolio is plump.

I am ready and prepared to vote for Trudeau. The question is, are you?

#120 PastThePeak on 01.24.19 at 10:02 am

Of course the possible Fed options discussed here will not lower prices. When everyone looking for a house (or perhaps only for those under 35) all get the same “break”, then the bidding simply pushes all prices up.

Sure, a few early buyers might be better off, but it won’t be long before the prices rise (or stay steady in what would have been a declining market) for all properties within the “affordability range”.

All this will accomplish is to encourage people to take on MORE debt, paying MORE interest in their lifetime (in the case of longer amortization). It will drive Canada’s debt to disposable income even higher, when it is already one of the highest in the world.

This will create a dead cat bounce in RE, which is often how the crashes go, before the final drop.

#121 Victor V on 01.24.19 at 10:06 am

Toronto developer seeking creditor protection leaves condo buyers in limbo

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/the-market/article-toronto-developer-seeking-creditor-protection-leaves-condo-buyers-in/

#122 Shawn Allen on 01.24.19 at 10:39 am

Meanwhile, the U.S. Economy is Booming

“Walmart Inc. said Thursday that it will hire hundreds of truck drivers in 2019, adding to the more than 1,400 that joined the company in 2018. And come February, average driver pay will increase to $87,500.”

**************************
hmm and this is Walmart which should be hurt by Trump’s actions to slow imports from Chain.

Can the U.S. home building industry and price gains continue to slow despite still being well below historic averages and despite the wage gains and low unemployment?

#123 Alistair McLaughlin on 01.24.19 at 10:43 am

The “help” for Millennial homebuyers will be 30 year CMHC mortgages, a possible expansion of the Home Buyer’s Plan limit, and possibly an increase to the first time homebuyers’ credit. I believe the first two are likely, the last one not so much.

Electorally, reinstating CMHC insurance for 30 year mortgages will be a no brainer. The Liberals can paint themselves as heroes for restoring something that the “cruel, callous millennial-hating” Conservatives eliminated. (Even though it was the Conservatives who first expanded CMHC insurance all the way up to 40 years in 2006.) Expanding the HBP limit was an election promise, so that’s another no-brainer.

Expanding the first time home buyers’ credit is unlikely, since that was a Conservative initiative to begin with. If anything, I could see the Liberals replacing it with a grant for low income home buyers, much like they did for some education credits.

By the way, when I call these things “no brainers”, it doesn’t mean I’m in favour of them. I’m speaking strictly from the Liberals’ electoral perspective, which, until next fall, is the only perspective that matters.

#124 Barb on 01.24.19 at 11:38 am

#115 Jacky Wang on 01.24.19 at 9:30 am

“…the leftist media has only been interviewing hard left nut jobs spewing climate nonsense and higher taxation to punish western civilization for our success as a society.”
—————————————–

Climate?
Did they miss seeing the 1,500 private jets that arrived at Davos?
Those same 1,500 jets will tomorrow fire up to take the hypocrites home.

Teleconferencing anyone?

As an aside, be well Bill Browder!

#125 not 1st on 01.24.19 at 11:46 am

#119 IHCTD9 on 01.24.19 at 9:57 am

—–

One thing you forgot is to buy your accountant a steak dinner this season. Gonna need all the tools in the tool kit to keep grubby socialist hands out of the cookie jar.

#126 Ustabe on 01.24.19 at 11:57 am

DELETED

#127 Shawn Allen on 01.24.19 at 11:57 am

Employment Insurance Recipients in Canada were down 13% in November year-over-year.

“Compared with November 2017, the number of EI recipients in Canada declined by 66,200 (-13.1%), with all provinces recording year-over-year decreases.”

Now, it’s fair to say that some of the 27% reduction in Alberta is due to benefits simply running out. But overall, the numbers show a stronger job market compared to one year ago for Canada overall.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/190124/t001a-eng.htm

#128 crazyfox on 01.24.19 at 11:59 am

6 minutes of thought….

I have a poem on my mind these days. I’m not much for poetry but every now and then I stumble on one that, well, this one has become my favorite. Its called “If” by Rudyard Kipling narrated by Sir Michael Caine in the link below, a good delivery I think:

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=if+rudyard+kipling&&view=detail&mid=9365D9D8BEE2688F18119365D9D8BEE2688F1811&&FORM=VRDGAR

“If you can meet with triumph and disaster and treat those two imposters just the same”. This line resonated with me because of something I recently wrote and found it to be quite wise.

Life is not a zero sum game, its not about success or failure or winning and losing, its about maximum effort. The result is important, but effort matters more. When we practice our best effort and become indifferent to the result it is then that we know that we’ve grown. When one thinks back on all of the best games in sports and competition or life events we’ve ever witnessed or participated in, its not the scores or who won or lost that we remember most, its the
intensity of effort. Success and failure is secondary always, to effort.

#129 Ustabe on 01.24.19 at 12:15 pm

#110 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.24.19 at 8:17 am

@#85 ustabe
“Least educated modern day national party leader.”
++++

…And if you think Trudeau is educated and intelligent enough to have figured a way to “spending his way out of this mess”…think again.
What would make you think I think that? I have never once posted in favour of Trudeau or Liberals. Not once. Do you read or just spout?

The hard way is Cretien and Martin cutting services, and reducing the national debt ( all while the provinces ramped THEIR spending up)
The cuts and tax increases are merely being pushed futher and further down the road for the Millenials and their offspring (Cannabliss-ennials) to reap.
We Boomers will be long dead before the financial crap truly hits the fan.

Would it be OK with you if I mostly agree with you on this part?

Vote away.

The sooner the CPC finds their Chrétien/Martin tandem and adopts a made in Canada conservatism instead of the GOP lite crap they bandy about now the sooner the party will form government.

I seriously doubt it will be anytime soon however. As long as Ford is held by some as a poster boy for conservative success, as long as Housing Allowance Kenny is cleared by the elections authorities in Alberta, as soon as a long, long list is cleared up…but we have Scheer to do that. He can’t even do a decent Holiday Greeting video.

#130 Dolce Vita on 01.24.19 at 12:18 pm

#80 Remembrancer

People are people and I agree by in large with what you say; although, a bit harsh on the racist verbiage, etc. Then again, we are being brainwashed with such terms…best use other words as in your everyday speech.

I say that because today’s social media (and MSM) do a disservice to the GREATER GOOD in over sensitizing people to every single word said. For example and on Twitter, every day (or second) there is always a person, left/right/middle/undecided, that says something UTTERLY STUPID.

AND they are unforgiven by complete strangers that know nothing about that person. In which case you can ask yourself whom is the LUNATIC?

Reminds me of the Biblical quote, John 8:7:

“He that is without sin among you, let him first cast a stone at her.”

Completely and utterly lost on far too many that hinge on every word said as if they are anointed Saints.

Time to grow up and understand that no one is perfect; thus, extend that simplest of human niceties, forgiveness, to your fellow man (or whatever gender version of “man” people subscribe to nowadays including our idiotic axiom riddled Prime Minister).

Most of these accusers care little about Social Justice, rather, they preen cultural superiority. Well Johnny and Jane, your plate is unlikely clean.

So, easy on terms such as racist and its ilk. Do not be like these cultural preeners that ooze superiority over the rest of us…or think that they do.

#131 Alistair McLaughlin on 01.24.19 at 12:27 pm

@#99 Conan, we already have two major progressive parties. We don’t need three. Not everyone buys into the progressive world view. About a third of Canadians are not progressive in their outlook, a large enough voting bloc that they deserve representation, and an occasional turn in the driver’s seat.

Before Reform came along, we had the choice between Dippers, Liberals and Red Tories. As it turned out, not everyone was happy with that choice. It’s happening again. Scheer and Co. have already lurched too far into the mushy middle on too many issues, which is why Mad Max has his own party now.

#132 LivinLarge on 01.24.19 at 12:35 pm

“@#110 Living Large, tax brackets are indexed to inflation, so inflation will not result in higher taxes years later.” I am sort of reposting this from yesterday’s comments because I appear to have exceed my daily limit from yesterday.

This a great example of a true fact that actually is almost meaningless.

Marginal rates may very well have been indexed but that can change just as quickly and new marginal rate bands can and do get created when hyper spending governments need new revenues. More importantly though, if you were in marginal rate band 1 when you contributed but are now in rate band 5 due to career/income growth then you need more each year to just stay treading water and with 30 years between deposit and withdrawal you had better hope that the capital growth in the RSP has more than just kept pace with inflation but also your creep up the marginal rate ladder as well

#133 Howard on 01.24.19 at 12:42 pm

Ustabe, can you explain the philosophical difference between the old PCs, or this “made-in-Canada” conservatism you want, and the Liberal Party? Because from my vantage point it sounds like you simply want a clone of the Liberals. Harper, Ford, Harris, and soon Kenney, among others, have proven your thesis wrong that actual centre-right politicians can win in Canada.

And if the Tories are “GOP lite” why aren’t the Liberals “Democrat Lite”? The Liberals and Democrats share the same globalist agenda that is now the object of justifiable derision and backlash throughout the western world.

#134 Stan Brooks on 01.24.19 at 12:51 pm

30 years mortgage… Lunacy by desperate politicians.

Look at the inflation… 2 mil dollar homes called ‘affordable housing’.

Getting ‘richer’ by doing nothing and getting deeper into debt while introducing system risk for the whole economy, not just the financial sector.

The day of re-conning is coming and it wont be pretty, move away from the loonie and Canadian stocks as far as you can and mind your pensions funds (it is not yours as you might think).

Massive inflation is coming. No sane investor will ever come here, watch the TSX performance.

I have never ever seen such recklessness and stupidity either, I never thought it was even remotely possible.

#135 NoName on 01.24.19 at 12:57 pm

Interesting read

https://japantoday.com/category/features/kuchikomi/beware-your-pension-is-vanishing

#136 Remembrancer on 01.24.19 at 1:02 pm

#115 Jacky Wang on 01.24.19 at 9:30 am
Since most major leaders didn’t attend the…

Trudeau is a top lickspittle in the effort to subjugate and rob you.
————————————————————
I assume you mean President Xi as the major leader? Um, ya, you see, your words say go-Trump but the stilted soviet / little red book-era slang is a major tell.

Sorry, we’ll be against T2 for our own reasons, don’t need outside self-styled influencers’ propaganda campaigns to dispirit the community here, we have guys like Happy Housing Crash (lova ya HHC!) here for that…

#137 Pistol Pete on 01.24.19 at 1:22 pm

#7 The Greater Cauliflower on 01.23.19 at 5:27 pm
I’m curious what people have in their TFSA.
(To compare if i am doing okay or not)
I have $86K
///////////

99K.
Maxed and open since 2011.
Includes weightings and individual stocks Garth would never approve of. Due for a proper re-balancing and de-risking.

#138 NoName on 01.24.19 at 1:25 pm

@ #130 Dolce Vita

If you ever find yourself in desperate need of home kooked meal, i’ll drop what i do and i’ll kook, and if luck in is on our side, we might find unopened tedeschi amarone, but knowing alcohol mortality rate in my house luck might fail…

You might like this video.
https://youtu.be/e_N_vesQigY

#139 Alistair McLaughlin on 01.24.19 at 1:52 pm

@132 LivingLarge, nobody suggested contributing to an RRSP if you’re already in the bottom bracket. That might have been the best you could do back before TFSAs were available, but not now. Your careful explanation of how an RRSP can work against you shows how much you are overcomplicating things. Future tax rates are uncertain. Investment returns are uncertain. Your future retirement income is uncertain. It has always been thus. Guess what? All that uncertainty exists whether you contribute to your RRSP or not.

The RRSP remains a tool – just a tool – in order to defer income to some future years when you anticipate a lower income. Logically, that tool is best used during your highest earning years. Use it according to your best judgement, and learn to accept that you can’t know every possible eventuality in advance.

That appears to be what’s eating at you. Not the RRSP itself, but the fact that you crave certainty that no tax shelter or investment vehicle or advisor can ever give you. Learn to embrace the uncertainty and enjoy life. Take the dog for a walk. Have a beer. Watch a good movie. Or, stay here and convince yourself (and nobody else), in post after post, that somehow Canadians have been victimized by the shortcomings of the RRSP.

#140 Blacksheep on 01.24.19 at 1:54 pm

Fortune500 # 92,

“Just as we start a minor downturn the politicians lose their nerve.”
—————————————-
F-5 simply nails it.

This, is the most concise comment I’ve read here, in a very long time. Until RE ownership drops below the 50% mark, this is something you need to remember…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hGcwpJgge6g

#141 IHCTD9 on 01.24.19 at 1:58 pm

#104 Headhunter on 01.24.19 at 7:26 am

Ever been to Dearborn or Ann Arbour Michigan? Albany NY. Finger lakes area. You would think you were in Ontario. Very decent house is in the 150-250K range. Why does housing cost so much here? Think about it? Guy I know is trying to sell his house in Orillia for 450K.. Just saw a posting of a 30 year old shack in Tottenham On for 600K.. in the middle of a farmers field.

Goes against the grain I know.. If you won the housing lottery cash er in now. Will never get a better price.
____

Here is what I figure so far:

1. Well off retirees from big cities who won the RE lottery and are cashing out to a sweet small town lakeside house for their retirement years. This is a sizable group of folks. There have been bidding wars on homes out in the boonies due to multiple buyers loaded with fresh “sell out” cash vying for the same property. They don’t care if the place is 600-700+K – only that it is a sweet house in a sweet location – if so, the gloves come off. Of course, this doesn’t stop the guy with a nice house built in a corn field from trying to get the same price. These guys are the ones fishing and sitting on the MLS for 100+ days. Lot’s of them, and it doesn’t take much time looking at local listings to identify the anglers.

2. Demographics. Rural areas are older, and many of these older folks own a paid for house already, and never pounded themselves into debt because cost of living was cheap, and that was culture back then. These folks can move up easily to 600K+ homes because they got a free ride up the equity ladder, have no debt, and today’s interest rates are cheap in their eyes.

I’m in ^this^ group – selling out and moving up to a sweet 600-700K place would run us 1600-2000/mo payment on a ~8.5K monthly net income – easy. I can clearly see how folks in our shoes would opt for a bigger / nicer / newer place if the right one came along (myself included). There is probably a good collection of folks just like this casually eyeing the MLS right now. They are in no rush, and feel no FOMO. Opportunists.

3. There are a number of folks trying to flip higher end homes on spec out here, just like in the GTA. This of course just gives everyone else an excuse to ask about the same number – even if buddy never sold it at that price. Years required to flush these folks thru – I know one right now who is looking at a good pounding. It ain’t going for what he needs period – the place is still up for sale, but it’s already game over.

The conditions needed for this to keep going are a continuing exodus of people and cash from the GTA (100% guaranteed), and the continued ability of first time buyers to purchase a 300K-400K home (pretty solid expectation).

I’m not expecting much price drop in the meat of the local market (anglers and very top end not included) until one of the two forces above dries up. Right now on my local MLS – just about every 600K home is listed by an angler asking too much and just camping out hoping for a sucker to come along. It’s boring to look at the MLS, same houses over and over for months on end – even some over a year.

#142 Think Logically on 01.24.19 at 1:59 pm

The election is a two horse race in 2019 ok. Spitting the vote this year should not be done. Ignore the polls, and those who predict the winner because it cannot be done this time within utter confusion. I don’t care for either horse for a variety of reasons. I do know who I am NOT voting for in 2019, and nothing will ever change my mind.

#143 Remembrancer on 01.24.19 at 2:05 pm

#130 Dolce Vita on 01.24.19 at 12:18 pm

Reminds me of the Biblical quote, John 8:7:
—————————————————–
I’ve found in practice that can be too easily used as an excuse for inaction, more a 1 John 4:1 testing false prophets kinda guy when it comes to this type of stuff…

Agree whole heartedly that words matter, I am using the Oxford English definition not social media hyperbolic hand waving…

Anyway, thanks for the note. Pace!

#144 Bytor the Snow Dog on 01.24.19 at 2:09 pm

#56 Pex Rockhard on 01.23.19 at 7:50 pm sez:

“Since I know that the Liberal brain trust trolls Garth’s comment section for policy ideas, here’s a start:

– make property ownership a right of citizenship; no sale of land to foreigners or permanent residents
– wind down the CMHC; no insurance of any kind for new mortgages (banks assume all the risk)
– prohibit amortizations longer than 15 years
– introduce an escalating federal land transfer tax; affordable houses are not taxed, multi-million dollar palaces are taxed obscenely (in the neighbourhood of 50%); the tax is paid by the seller”.
—————————————————————-

Mucho loco en la cabeza.

#145 not 1st on 01.24.19 at 2:19 pm

Fortune500 # 92,
“Just as we start a minor downturn the politicians lose their nerve.”
—-

Two things politicians in Canada never want to be in power during a housing crash or breakup of the country. Sounds like T2 is on his way for a double win.

Remember we voted out an MBA accountant because we didn’t like his hair. Well now we got great hair in there, no economy and intergeneration debt.

#146 Ace Goodheart on 01.24.19 at 2:58 pm

So we’re all waiting with baited breath for Trump’s position on Venezuela.

Will he support the opposition candidate who has declared himself in power, thereby going against Putin and Russia’s position?

Or will he capitulate, abandon the position held by Western Europe and Canada, and support the Russian position?

I think He’ll withdraw the USA’s position and take no position, so as to support Russia without actually supporting Russia.

This will be interesting.

#147 Headhunter on 01.24.19 at 3:39 pm

#141 IHCTD9 on 01.24.19 at 1:58 pm

Good Points. Yes grab the popcorn and as the kind bearded scribe says “there will be tears” this year.

#148 Renter's Revenge! on 01.24.19 at 3:50 pm

#146 Ace Goodheart on 01.24.19 at 2:58 pm

So we’re all waiting with baited breath…

===========================

Stop! Grammar police!

It’s “bated” breath, not “baited” breath. Short for “abated”.

“Baited” breath makes it sound like you’ve been eating worms!

#149 Mohammad on 01.24.19 at 4:30 pm

Hey Garth last time I asked if they would raise it you said they wont or maybe I misunderstood and you meant they shouldn’t. Regardless, thanks for the post.

To everyone else, I cant keep stressing. The job market is very robust. We still have an opportunity everyday to make it a successful one. If people would stop worrying so much about the noise in the outside world and just focus to what is in front of them I am sure they will see opportunity.

Garth politicians for the most part do not care. They are always passing the buck to another party. Sometimes I am believer of too much government is not good. As a millennial things have not been better for some of us. I am remember growing up as a boy praying to get older so I can enter the work world and be independent and create my destiny. Don’t wait for the government to solve your problems.

#150 LivinLarge on 01.24.19 at 4:36 pm

“nobody suggested contributing to an RRSP if you’re already in the bottom bracket.”…EXCEPT, that is precisely what has been promoted forever. Start early and contribute regularly” has been the mantra of the folks wanting to get your RSP contributions each year.

This is always justfied by claiming the power of decades of compounding.

Contributing later in life is one of the ways to get the most initial advantage from the contribution, that I agree with but it also lessens the length of time the contribution has to compound too.

#151 John Howarth on 01.26.19 at 9:05 pm

How do I know we are in an election campaign:
-CBC broadcasted live the Kavanough sex hearings, trying to drive TMZ out of business
-CBC had their live correspondent in Washington present Trumps agenda for the day. I would have been interested in Trusteau’s agenda for the day
-CPP IB is broadcasting ads during NFL playoffs. Then, after outrage from all the media, they switched them to the CBC. Double subsidies to the CBC, by directing gov ads to them
-There is a Trusteau or Moroneau townhall every day

#152 John Howarth on 01.26.19 at 9:21 pm

Liked the Swiss Chalet joke so I share one :
Trusteau dies, and is waiting for triage: hell or heaven?
Given that he was such a nice looking politician, who has driven so many to poverty, and as such closer to religion, he is given the chance to make his own decision. He is first given a tour of heaven. It is nice, classical music, angels, electric cars, solar heating, calm, maybe a little boring though.
Then comes hell. There are no fires but rather everybody is partying and playing golf. Whiskey and beer everywhere. He recognizes all the liberal greats there, all the lobbyists, lots of celebrities..He then goes back and, when asked to make a decision, says:
-I have decided to choose hell, but I would like that the official announcement uses the words “went to a better place”.
He is then dropped to hell. The picture is now very different: flames and yelling , as you would expect. The whiskey turns out to bee…you get the idea. He goes to complain to Lucifer…This is very different, you tricked me with promises..
Lucifer answers calmly:
Yes, that was the election campaign…I learned the trick from you..back to your burning station!