Fear & greed

Another big rally for stocks on Friday. Since Christmas Eve, when the wailing from the steerage section was deafening, the Dow has gained about 3,000 points. That’s a jump of over 13% in less than a month. So if you sold as the obese man with the hypersonic reindeer approached, you were emotional, irrational and, yeah, a fool. As this blog told you, corrections are noise. They pass. Selling into one is a pure amateur move – like buying bitcoin.

But you must be bored with me saying it, so here’s a new voice. Sinan is one of my fancy investment guys, who came over from the dark side a few months ago. He was vice-president of Capital Markets for RBC in New York, a v-p with Credit Suisse in Toronto and has taught high-rolling clients personal options trading strategies. Now he has to tolerate me.

I asked Sinan to shed some of his experience with you. — Garth

  By Guest Blogger Sinan Terzioglu

When I first started investing in the markets in the 1990s, Internet stocks were all the rage and markets boomed.  My brother had been investing for years and would tell me about his gains and top picks so I decided to jump in myself.  Like so many new investors, I had very limited knowledge but was eager to learn and thrilled about the potential.

The first stock I ever bought was of an Internet company selling second-hand cars. I figured there was solid potential as the internet was the way of the future.  That was pretty much the only basis of my research.  I had no clue about cash flows, balance sheets or measures of profitability, not to mention position sizing, risk management or diversification.  Fast forward a few months and my investment crashed 30%.  To add to the pain, I’d put a big chunk of my available capital into the one position.  Painfully, I learned I needed a 43% return just to break even.

I wasn’t deterred though.  As I earned more money over time, I bought more.  Unfortunately, I still didn’t have adequate knowledge and like so many, I was buying stocks that were the recent high fliers.  I fell victim to what is known in behavioural finance as the recency bias – I anchored to recent high prices and speculated prices would continue making new highs.  I was still didn’t understand what drives stock values and the markets over the long term.  I certainly wasn’t acting or thinking like an investor and. like so many new to the markets, merely speculating.

Little did I know many of these companies earned no money yet and others had ridiculous valuations. The recent crypto currency craze and the run up in the weed sector reminds me a lot of the late 90’s tech stock mania. Stories of people making millions investing in a stock or cryptocurrency are very seductive – but a clear sign of yet another bubble. Throughout time, people have accepted the high likelihood of underperformance in return for the small likelihood of owning the next big winner.  In other words, they like to buy lottery tickets.  We want to believe it could happen for us but must always remember the odds are extremely low.

After a difficult first couple of years of investing in individual stocks, I decided I needed to properly learn how to invest which is what led me to a career in the capital markets. I signed up for many courses and read dozens of books but after 20+ years of investing, I know I’ll never be done learning.  The one thing I wish someone would have told my younger self 20+ years ago is that it’s far easier to lose money in the markets than it is to make it, so focus on avoiding catastrophic losses.  Opportunity cost doesn’t get a lot of attention in financial planning.  The lost potential of capital compounding over time makes a very big difference to long term wealth.  As Albert Einstein said “compounding is the eighth wonder of the world, he who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t pays it”.

Eventually I learned the importance of having an investing plan and being patient.  I realized becoming a successful investor didn’t mean a lot of action and excitement in my portfolio every day, week or month.  In my early days, I was constantly looking at quotes, over trading and all too often getting in my own way.  Also, by investing in individual stocks, I greatly increased my odds of suffering devastating losses.  People invest for a variety of reasons but for most it’s to eventually achieving financial independence. It’s important to always keep that goal in perspective when tempted to deviate from the planned course which for most should be like watching paint dry.

Retail and even institutional investors are trading more frequently than ever as the average holding period of a stock is now well less than a year.  This is shorter than at any time since the 1920’s.  With technology making it easier and easier for us to trade, the average holding period will drop even further.  This can be lethal to investors trying to achieve a particular goal.  Add to that the never-ending media headlines any time there’s volatility and you can see how easy it is for investors to become fearful.  Humans are innately impatient and overconfident which causes us to trade in and out of stocks. Because our actions are dictated by fear and greed, we can’t help but buy assets when the market is peaking, then frenetically sell them after the market plummets.  Data recently released from Morningstar shows actively managed funds in the US experienced outflows of nearly $143 billion in December, their worst month ever.  The S&P 500 is up ~13% from its December low, once again highlighting how so many sell at the wrong times.

2018 marked 20 years of my personal investing in the markets and my professional career in finance.  From the tech bubble bursting in 2000, to the crisis of 2008-2009 and the recent volatility in December, I have seen and experienced repeated cycles. Working in the capital markets in New York during the financial crisis, I witnessed many professional money managers make the same sorts of mistakes retail investors typically make.  Many funds blew up because of excessive risk, lack of diversification and cognitive biases.  Over time I’ve learned to become a successful investor through all the ups and downs you need the right temperament, to avoid speculation, think probabilistically, follow a plan and acknowledge valuations.  Most importantly, always remember investing is best done as a long-term pursuit.

Sinan Terzioglu, CFA, CIM, is a financial advisor and licensed portfolio manager with Turner Investments, Private Client Group, Raymond James Ltd.   

92 comments ↓

#1 Oh No ... on 01.18.19 at 4:29 pm

Garth’s throwing the dawgs a new bone … poor Sinan.

#2 NotLegalAdvice on 01.18.19 at 4:36 pm

Hi,

Thanks for the post. I was just wondering what a balanced and diversified portfolio would look like. When you say invest in the US market, Canada market and Emerging Markets, are you referring to a handful of different ETFs?

What would be an example of Emerging Market ETFs?

BMO, CIBC, BNS, VBAL is what I’m currently holding onto.

What else should I branch into?

Thanks,

#3 expat on 01.18.19 at 4:40 pm

I’ve sold all positions as of today to go to cash
It smells like a dead cat bounce, it looks like one too.
So I didn’t lock in losses
I locked in profits

It was a great trade nothing more

Powder dry for a better dayIMHO

But that is my strategy
It doesnt mean its yours

There is no bad thing in taking profits
Its why we invest.

Holding is mugs game in opinion.

Too far too fast

#4 @careeraftschool on 01.18.19 at 4:48 pm

Great post Sinan!

“Opportunity cost doesn’t get a lot of attention in financial planning. The lost potential of capital compounding over time makes a very big difference to long term wealth.”

Please write more about this topic in future articles as many people I know have trouble understanding opportunity cost. I know many 20 and 30 year olds who cashed out their RRSP’s and TFSA’s to buy second properties or invest in businesses that had ROE’s of less than 5%.

#5 Parksville Prankster on 01.18.19 at 4:52 pm

Welcome Sinan! Thank you for sharing your honest story, and for being humble enough to admit that no one is immune from losses. Many out there claim to be able to predict the future with technical analysis, over-weight strategies, and stock picking. The word financial ‘guru’ is thrown around only because people find it difficult to spell ‘charlatan’. As the late John (Jack) Bogle, pioneer of Index Investing, and founder of Vanguard used to say, “Don’t just do something, stand there.” RIP John.

#6 NoName on 01.18.19 at 5:01 pm

“…and has taught high-rolling clients personal options trading strategies. “

I like dude, minus the high rolling part, unfortunately for me i dint mingle with that crowd…

“Humans are innately impatient and overconfident which causes us to trade in and out of stocks.’

Time where calls and puts shine, short strangles and straddles are the shiniest.

#7 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.18.19 at 5:15 pm

Great explanation Sinan.
Always good to hear from someone with experience in the markets….

Unfortunately , Garth has released the Hounds (blogdogs) upon you.

#8 Dumb Dog on 01.18.19 at 5:20 pm

Welcome Sinan Terzioglu! Soulds like you are a goal scorer.

#9 Ustabe on 01.18.19 at 5:24 pm

Welcome Sinan.

So, tell me, what are your opinions on BC?

#10 Guy in Calgary on 01.18.19 at 5:27 pm

I am excited for you to share different options strategies especially with a lot of big names releasing earnings ;)

#11 Smoking Man on 01.18.19 at 5:46 pm

I like this guy. He did it the hard way. No fancy pansee university hack here.

Plus he’s a fellow baldee. Grass don’t grow on busy highway.

Welcome to our psychotic little dog pound.

Dr Smoking Man
PhD Hetdonomics.

#12 millmech on 01.18.19 at 5:48 pm

Welcome aboard Mr. Terzioglu, looking forward to a post about options.

#13 Shawn Allen on 01.18.19 at 5:53 pm

Branching Out…

#2 NotLegalAdvice on 01.18.19 at 4:36 pm

asked

BMO, CIBC, BNS, VBAL is what I’m currently holding onto.

What else should I branch into?

Thanks,

****************************************
Well you could go into a TD and a BMO bank branch but looks like you are already into too many bank branches.

Actually VBAL is not a bad way to get instant diversification.

#14 Wallflower on 01.18.19 at 5:53 pm

Back to real estate
I live in a new condo building where flippers sold units beginning month one 2017 through to about 3 months ago. Many of them vacant the whole time.

There are constantly letters from CRA addressed to these “owners” – one of them ended up in my mail slot and I ripped it open like I do all my envelopes.
The other ones are constantly being stuck at the wall (we have no area to stick ‘return to sender’ mail and no mail slot).
So now I know what all those letters are – the CRA denying the HST rebate and requesting repayment.
Ha ha ha ha ha.
Canada is soooooooooooooooo stupid.
CRA sends letters to units that have changed hands and the former “owner” is nowhere to be found. Clearly these flippers don’t bother with forwarding addresses: why would they, they never lived there.

It would be interesting to know from CRA – what percentage of HST denial files are being opened against sales and what percentage of those are being mailed to the unit that has already changed hands?

I can imagine that some of those CRA letters are additionally, a request to revisit the tax return based on residence evidence (or lack thereof!).
So we can talk all we want about CRA hiring more investigators etc and being more proactive but their tactics are to direct their communications to the unit that has a new owner?
I don’t have words for this level of stupidity.

This is why we have to transact everything at source and collect valid data points on owners, be they individuals or corporations. If the data cannot be collected at source and validated, the buyer should render all potential monies to CRA and request credit at relevant check points.

#15 jess on 01.18.19 at 5:53 pm

what about the blowups that were intentional?

james kidney 25 year trial lawyer for SEC commission remember abacus ..and who didn’t go to jail
During the Lake Forest College lecture, Kidney put up a chart to show how Wall Street’s epic corruption impacted the average American and the U.S. economy. The chart shows that $19 trillion in U.S. wealth was lost; there was a 30 percent drop in housing prices; 8.8 million American jobs were lost; and 10 million homes were lost to foreclosure.
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/dvq3147uhoauc41/AAB7mKzTEjCwXnbxOKe1eGOOa?dl=0&preview=2018+LFC+Speech.mp4

#16 SW on 01.18.19 at 5:54 pm

Sensible advice. It would have been better to understand all this much earlier in my life, but I come from a long line of speculators…I try not to talk to my family about money now.

#17 TurnerNation on 01.18.19 at 5:54 pm

And so it begins. The cut of meat I’ve been buying for a while just now went up in price by 10%.

2019: The year our after tax spending power overall drops 10% :-(

#18 The real Kip (Ret) on 01.18.19 at 5:54 pm

Wow Sinan, that’s quite a resume/bio but I must ask, how many Porsche’s do you own? That’s how I gauge how big of a, sorry, how good of an advisor you are.

#19 You know on 01.18.19 at 5:59 pm

Hello Sinan…welcome aboard and good Luck!… now let’s beat the crap out of trump a f t2

#20 Unhinged Trader on 01.18.19 at 6:00 pm

Hi Sinan, what’s the best way to chemically dissolve a body?

Asking for a friend.

#21 Scott on 01.18.19 at 6:00 pm

Hey Garth, love the blog! A friend got me on to it and I’ve been reading daily as well as slowly catching up on the past. Just wondering why yourself and all your guests are so against the cannabis sector?
I started out using a dummie account on my brokerage platform to learn how to trade while reading and learning more about investing. I started out with a diversified aggressive portfolio. I did extremely well for six months on the dummie account and after six months I was kicking myself for missing out on 40% gains (not that I had much to invest). I then put my money to work continuing with a diversified aggressive approach. After a year I started to buy exclusively cannabis stocks after hearing a few investors say don’t put 5% in to your tenth best idea and my cannabis stocks had outperformed the rest of my portfolio by about 100%. Glad I made this decision as it’s given me an 80% annualized return over my three years of investing (peaked in fall 2018 just shy of 150%). I could lose half my portfolio (as I nearly have a few times in three years) and still be doing far better off than I would be with an average 10%. I’ve taken some Canadian profits and moved in to the US sector (don’t tell the US border agents), I see huge growth opportunities there similar to what Canada has seen the past five years.
I’ve kept my work retirement plan in “safer” more traditional and diversified mutual funds chosen from my limited selection with our Manulife group plan. In my TFSA I keep going after huge gains because a big winner or two stretches the TFSA space so much that I should be able to fund my retirement in about five years. I’m only 31, no plans to retire but will be nice to have the freedom to do so once the TFSA hits seven figures.
So my question is are you anti cannabis stocks because it’s too speculative? too volatile? I figure a conservative fellow of your age will come around once the sector separates those who execute and produce solid fundamentals. You can buy Canopy in ten years when it pays a nice dividend and is done gaining and dropping 5% on any given day.
Thanks for the blog dawg! I imagine your pants will keep getting slightly higher just like Clints until you reach max “get off my lawn” level in 2025.

Cheers,

http://i.imgur.com/ReCeC3w.gif

#22 Catalyst on 01.18.19 at 6:10 pm

Capital markets to index investing, sorry for your loss.

Just kidding, welcome.

#23 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.18.19 at 6:13 pm

Sinan.
A fitting name for a disciple of Garth.

#24 Larry1 on 01.18.19 at 6:13 pm

What I don’t understand with Garth’s simple, balanced ETF approaches to investing, is why is a team of CFA charter holders required?

As I understand, Turner doesn’t run a hedge fund full of derivatives or a discretionary fund of stocks and laddered bonds — it’s a balanced and diversified basket of ETFs. Is there really that much to analyze? What am I missing?

ETF selections. Technical and fundamental analysis. Tactical rebalancing. Taxation strategies. Economic forecasting and modelling. Holistic retirement planning. Tummy rubs. – Garth

#25 MicroGX on 01.18.19 at 6:14 pm

Great first post! Hope you’re joining the regular guess contribution cycle.

#26 tccontrarian on 01.18.19 at 6:26 pm

“2018 marked 20 years of my personal investing in the markets and my professional career in finance. ” ST

I can’t disagree with any of the general comments you make. But I also like specifics:

So, how did you fare in this challenging year, 2018?
Lessons learned?
Outlook for 2019-20?

Welcome!

TCC

#27 Joe Schmoe on 01.18.19 at 6:34 pm

@ #24

Lies and deceit. I have received no tummy rubs. That might be in the Deluxe Plan though.

The rest is true.

#28 Bottoms_Up on 01.18.19 at 6:35 pm

Thanks Garth and Sinan, it is always a treat to get sage advice.

#29 espressobob on 01.18.19 at 6:37 pm

Thanks for your thoughts Sinan and welcome to the comment section.

#30 Maka on 01.18.19 at 7:04 pm

Sinan,
What do you think about gold this time? Will it break out?

#31 Terrie Rolph on 01.18.19 at 7:13 pm

Welcome! And thank you very much for sharing about how to approach investing, intelligently and sensibly.
All the best in the New Year.

#32 Impeachment 2019 on 01.18.19 at 7:14 pm

#11 Smoking Man on 01.18.19 at 5:46 pm
I like this guy. He did it the hard way. No fancy pansee university hack here.

————–
Except it says Sinan Terzioglu, CFA, CIM.

#33 waiting on the westcoast on 01.18.19 at 7:20 pm

Did we break Ryan?

Garth – you forgot calming words during volatile trading days…

Sinan – welcome!

#34 Figmund Sreud on 01.18.19 at 7:21 pm

Hear! … Hear, hear!

When I first started investing in the markets in the 1990s, Internet stocks were all the rage and markets boomed.
————————

Well, my first purchase was Nova Corp., just right after Alberta Government floated the former AGTL into the market. Many others followed NVA: TD, BNS, BMO, … others. Still, at one point I was down about 30%, too. No fear, … I persevered. Still at it: “Wisely and slow. They stumble that run fast.” – William Shakespeare.

Anyway, welcome, … I hope to read your contribution often!

Best,

F.S. – Calgary, Alberta.

Best,

F.S. – Calgary, Alberta.

#35 Red_falcon on 01.18.19 at 7:25 pm

Bought power financial common stock for my tfsa earlier this month. Oodles of yield, and possible dividend increase this year.
No tax, all yield! No fakery here, Divie is all cash. Take that taxman!!!

Red. :)

#36 Robert Ash on 01.18.19 at 7:37 pm

A small Hedge Fund out of Denver… top performers in the past year… are shorting the Canadian Banks… no specific Banks listed …just shorting all of them, likely with loans to the various sectors struggling corps… This fund Crescat suggests that Canada has a list of Corporate players ..82% that have negative cash flow… the highest in the world… that is not a confidence builder…They were successful shorting China, which is not a huge leap of smarts in my view… with Trump wanting a reset on the Chinese margins… Interesting Times…. I can’t recall Canadian Banks, being suspect, other than for a limited period in 2008.

#37 Eddie on 01.18.19 at 8:03 pm

The crash that is coming, GREATEST CRASH IN HUMAN HISTORY 2019, / 12K DOW. But unfortunately many don’t want to hear it. Look at the Elliott wave,

#38 AK on 01.18.19 at 8:04 pm

Lineup at the local Dunkin Donuts this morning was 25 deep, as usual.

America is booming and does not appear to be stopping anytime soon.

#39 TurnerNation on 01.18.19 at 8:13 pm

Just amazing in the country, our (visible) rulers. A blog dog once mentioned this, I can only add to the list.
(Are they tweaking our nose and putting the top bloodlines in power or?? Cough, BushClinton since the 80s)

TrudEAU – PM
GarnEAU – Transport Minister
MornEAU – Finance Minster
BibEAU – Intl. Development Minister

4/36
https://www.ourcommons.ca/Parliamentarians/en/ministries

BordelEAU – Ottawa’s own police chief.

Eau of course is French for Water
And we are in the Age of Aquarius at the moment. I don’t believe in that stuff but some sure do.

#40 Crazytown and Horgan are in love on 01.18.19 at 8:17 pm

Crazytown are you enjoying your crumbs?
My filet minon is cooked perfect!

#41 Long-Time Lurker on 01.18.19 at 8:39 pm

>Hi, Sinan. Thank you for sharing your story. Did Garth, Ryan and Doug tell you about the comments section? It’s like this:

Mad Max Beyond Thunderdome (1985) – Two Men Enter, One Man Leaves Scene (4/9) | Movieclips

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9yDL0AKUCKo

#42 Arto on 01.18.19 at 8:39 pm

Sinan—named after the greatest Ottoman architect—who happened to be Armenian.

#43 DON on 01.18.19 at 8:43 pm

Hi Sinan. Thank you for sharing. Good read.

#44 Sold Out on 01.18.19 at 9:00 pm

#20 Unhinged Trader

Wrap it in chain-link fencing and throw it in the ocean. Body sinks, forensic evidence destroyed, fish and crabs have access to body so identification is difficult. This is the method recommended by homicide detectives; they should know. Best of luck to your friend!

#45 DON on 01.18.19 at 9:40 pm

BlackSheep

You seemed to disappear from the comments section when the wheels started to come the mantra that prices can rise forever. I take it Mattl and the BC Builders association are calling bottom in the dip as 2019 will be better. Ok, prices will start to rise again and incomes will stay flat.

Today we hear there is ‘unexpected’ inflation. Forget that fact last week they said inflation was under control. I saw it last weekend when I went to by produce etc (15% increase). Airline flights were 28%. More rate hikes to come? China might help the US out by shrinking the trade deficit for 6 year by buying more American products.

Consumer spending in Canada is declining. Houses are worth what the best offer can afford. The 19-29 year old are a new clan and most have not been in a position to reap the benefit, but they do know that prices can correct. In short they could turn their collective noses away from real estate and enjoy life, travel, live and experience less financial stress.

This is not a matter of ‘careful what you wish for’, this is reality staring people in the face, some not as well off as you are. They are the ones you need to worry about. Our neighbours are the ones who are over extended and will start the ball running (HELOCs, car loans etc). Car sales are down. Yes we will all feel the pain, some worse than offers.

But hey we have a missile race in space to look forward to.

Nanaimo election – could go against the governing party if constituents are pissed off enough. This is the governments home turf (blue collar town). All parties want a new BC election. The dirt the new government must have on the old? Old government wants back in now for obvious reasons. And the BC Greens in a recent poll were piking up ground in certain ridings throughout the Province mostly in BC Liberal areas. The wild card for the Nanaimo by election in my mind is the late entry of the BC Conservatives. In the last Provincial election they ran a couple of candidates and suck off enough votes to regain the Courtney area for the current governing party. Will be interesting but all 4 parties are looking for a new provincial election in the near future.

Will be interesting.

I’m glad you are enjoying life and business. Good to hear.

#46 Deplorable Drunk on 01.18.19 at 9:45 pm

#32 Impeachment 2019 on 01.18.19 at 7:14 pm

#11 Smoking Man on 01.18.19 at 5:46 pm
I like this guy. He did it the hard way. No fancy pansee university hack here.

————–
Except it says Sinan Terzioglu, CFA, CIM.

…..

As usual smoking goof is wrong……………

Bachelors, Mathematics For Commerce
York 1994 – 1998

#47 Akhtar on 01.18.19 at 9:46 pm

@NotLegalAdvice

Hey bud, I’m pretty new to investing as well and from my research i found VBAL holds the following ETFS.

VUN 24% Vanguard US Total Market ETF (.16%)
VCN 17.61% Vanguard FTSE Canada All Cap ETF (.06%)
VIU 13.76% Vanguard FTSE Dev AC ex Nrth Amer ETF (.23%)
VEE 4.15% Vanguard FTSE Emerging Mkts All Cap ETF (.24%)
VAB 23.7% Vanguard Canadian Aggregate Bond ETF (.13%)
VBG 9.52% Vanguard Global ex-US Aggt Bd ETF CAD-H (.35%)
VBU 7.20% Vanguard US Aggregate Bond ETF CAD-H (.22%)

(The weights are in front and MER is at the end)

I’m not sure if your holdings are in TFSA or Cash.

You can rebuild that portfolio to your liking i built mine to this.

VUN – Vanguard US Total Market ETF 25%)
VCN – Vanguard FTSE Canada All Cap ETF (10%)
VEF – Vanguard FTSE Dev AC ex Nrth Amer ETF (20%)
VEE – Vanguard FTSE Emerging Mkts All Cap ETF (5%)
VRE – Reit Index (10%)
VAB – Vanguard Canadian Aggregate Bond ETF (10%)
VBG – Vanguard Global ex-US Aggt Bd ETF (10%)
VBU – Vanguard US Aggregate Bond ETF (10%)

I don’t think VBAL holds reits so i added those and modified the weights to my liking. Figure out your risk and balance once or twice a year and you’re good to go.

If you’re investing in non registered i would like into Horizons etfs.

#48 akashic record on 01.18.19 at 9:48 pm

Hi Sinan,

Let’s talk options…

#49 DON on 01.18.19 at 9:54 pm

@#14 Wallflower on 01.18.19 at 5:53 pm

You have to be careful. If you type CRA or say CRA three times they appear out of nowhere. They also provide you with lots of tracked letters and have access to a lot of your data. As soon as the next investigator is free or you flag the system by not replying assume they are getting to you, and boy can they reach back in time.

#50 WiseMan on 01.18.19 at 9:54 pm

I like this new guy, because he kind of sounds like me! The only difference is that I truly have only understood the importance of a diverse portfolio in the past year.

#51 NoName on 01.18.19 at 10:05 pm

#42 Arto on 01.18.19 at 8:39 pm
Sinan—named after the greatest Ottoman architect—who happened to be Armenian.

one of his protege build this bridge.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_1Tpjs1BxmU

#52 Smartalox on 01.18.19 at 10:18 pm

@ TurnerNation:

Aquarius is actually an ‘air’ sign. Cancer, Pices and Scorpio are the ‘water’ signs.

#53 Ryan Rowie on 01.18.19 at 10:51 pm

Just a comment, If in December there were $143 Billion in US Market outflows, wouldn’t that money need to flow back in for the market to be up 13%?

#54 Doug in London on 01.18.19 at 10:51 pm

I keep reading all these posts in the steerage section about how stocks are going to crash and go down, down, down, down and down forever and ever and ever and ever. I must be living in a parallel universe as my stocks and ETFs keep going up, up, up ,and up. Even much picked on CPD has recovered from its low of $12.08.

#55 50 YEARS OF MAPLE LEAF INCOMPETENCE! on 01.18.19 at 10:51 pm

Pathetic Make Believes Crushed 3-1 by Panthers!!

A half-assed under 500 team blows them away.

Toronturds and GTAholes wallow in misery while their teams suck and their housing bubble is collapsing.

Idiots who support that team are just like the dotcom investors Sinan speaks of, always thinking it will “be different this time”.

To paraphrase today’s entry, to have a competent sports franchise and city, you “… need the right temperament, to avoid speculation, think probabilistically, follow a plan and acknowledge valuations. Most importantly, always remember … (sports team management)… is best done as a long-term pursuit.” Everything the Leafs have failed to do for 52 years, LOL.

Obviously, you are not a season ticket holder, Sinan!

Congrats!

#56 Smoking Man on 01.18.19 at 10:52 pm

2 Impeachment 2019 on 01.18.19 at 7:14 pm

#11 Smoking Man on 01.18.19 at 5:46 pm
I like this guy. He did it the hard way. No fancy pansee university hack here.

————–
Except it says Sinan Terzioglu, CFA, CIM.
…….

Personally, If I was him I would not advertise CIM that a load of an acronym….

#57 David Driven to Succeed on 01.18.19 at 11:08 pm

Denial of foreign funds effecting BC real estate prices has the stench of stupid all over the practice. Some still say it’s racist to point it out. Wow, how stupid is that? We might as join the Swedes and ban the reporting of rape by migrants for the sake of globalism.

https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/b-c-minister-fears-money-laundering-involves-billions-of-dollars-cites-reports

#58 WUL on 01.18.19 at 11:12 pm

Nice to meet you Sinan and to receive your advice. I did not sell into the swoon in the latter months of ’18. At my age, lethargy, inertia and the fact that I forget that I even own a portfolio helped. The diversified and balanced portfolio has bounced back nicely. I fall asleep reading mystery novels every night and forget that I own a single thing. It works.

Ignore the rookie hazing you’ll receive tonight in the comment section. It’s a hockey thing. Speaking of which, Battle of Alberta tomorrow night on HNC at 10:00 Eastern. I hope I can stay awake to watch the Flames roast the Oil. I will probably fall asleep after Coach’s Corner.

Cheers and thanks,

WUL

#59 n1tro on 01.18.19 at 11:50 pm

#223 acdel on 01.18.19 at 5:37 pm
#219 n1tro

Huh, seriously?

It is not about women buying products for men, it is about them buying it for themselves. Last time I heard in my age group guys do not usually shave there legs or armpits or other areas, to each there own.

Enough with the rhetoric, facts are facts and you are just a miserable sh*T!
———————————–
Triggered much? I simply disagreed with some of your assertions and swearing is your response? Lolz…or “Laudz” as your age group likes it say/spell/I don’t know anymore.

As for “facts are facts” being your counter argument. Let’s say we overlook the flaw in your argument that what your “heard” makes facts being “facts”, lets assume that women are buying razors for themselves because they got such a need to shave their armpits, legs, and such…there are specific razors marketed to women for those requirements…they are usually pink and the commercials goes on about being smooth on the skin and whatnot given that the People/Product (razors for women) being targeted.

What is being debated here is marketing of a specific product that for the last 50 years has been targeted for men while bashing them for crimes against women. The premise that women are buying these MEN’s razors all this time to shave their armpits and legs making the marketing “brilliant” as you put it isn’t convincing.

I do agree with your last point that we should see through this type of divisive advertisement but it seems you may have some issues to overcome before the conversation can continue. I will say no more on this topic.

#60 Tom from Mississauga on 01.19.19 at 12:01 am

Know what probabilistically means but unsure if it’s actually a word

#61 Zapper on 01.19.19 at 12:50 am

#44 Sold Out

Sound advice but clearly Unhinged Trader does not live on the Coast, hence the reason he asked for Chemical.

Where were you on Valentines Day 2017 when I was served papers by my ex GIRLFRIEND.

Another excellent reason to get your hate on for BC Garth, Family Law Act. of BC.

Can you buy chain-link fencing on Amazon?

asking for a friend

#62 yvr_lurker on 01.19.19 at 2:08 am

New 10-fold increase in the estimate of the scope of illegal money laundering in BC contributing to the housing crisis.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-dirty-money-casinos-1.4985203

“B.C. Liberal government displayed significant willful blindness on the file”, says Eby.

In my view it is also willful blindness for anyone to say that this “llittle” money laundering exercice had little at all to do the huge spike in real estate prices in YVR over the past decade. My bet is that they are still only seeing the tip of the iceberg; there is probably much more just below the surface that will come out later, regarding other tricks like bogus shells companies etc..

Eby is the first person to have the tenacity and integrity to actually try to follow this through. Christy Clark and her team of crooks did zilch, and even fired gov’t officials who wrote a report to sound the alarm that something was amiss.

Hopefully there will now be a wider crown investigation, and strict new laws implemented to put an absolute end to this BS by our “offshore” investors. Once local people see the scope of the problem, there will be a new understanding that this “parasitic investment” in our province, which flaunts all the rules, is highly undesirable.

Eby has my vote in my Kits neighborhood.

#63 Smoking Man on 01.19.19 at 2:15 am

When evolve to a world where you give no shit.

It’s the day you made it.

Dr Smoke

#64 Stan Brooks on 01.19.19 at 2:36 am


#215 Shawn Allen on 01.18.19 at 3:22 pm
The Canadian Economy is On the Move

Rail car loadings are up bigly these first two weeks versus the last three years. Intermodal (consumer goods) way up. Petroleum off the chart up. Automotive only slightly down, everything else either up or relatively flat. Sorry doomers.

TSX up…

You forgot the details: TSX was up yesterday 0.66 % vs. double that for Europe, 1.38 % for Dow, 2.32 % for Turkey (I told you to buy it).

Oil rose 3.25 % yesterday!

There is no doubt you are marvelously rewarded for your investments in it and expect even stronger performance based on revised down growth of 1.7 % (vs, the world growth of 3.5 %), and the peak debt issue that leaves no local money for investments, as they go to the mortgage and HELOC. Global money have moved out and have no interest whatsoever in it.

Find me a single global fund manager recommending TSX (Oh, I forgot, they are stupid and do not understand our ‘economy’).

=============================

Sinan, I am interested in your opinion on perspectives in emerging markets vs. TSX in mid to long run and particularly on Turkey, their stock market is unjustifiably down at least 50 % compared to past valuations while the economy is booming and that boom is organic and not credit driven.

BTW I know quite a few people moving back from US/New York to Turkey. Much cheaper, better weather, great opportunities for the educated and people with foreign experience, you can actually have 3-4 kids; just need to ignore temporary political noise (not that we do not have it here), an economy that is actually growing quite well.

#65 MF on 01.19.19 at 7:57 am

#64 Stan Brooks on 01.19.19 at 2:36 am

“BTW I know quite a few people moving back from US/New York to Turkey”

-No you don’t. I don’t think you know anyone here. Seriously.

You are a troll.

I’ve noticed your post time is usually way early in the morning. Probably indicating you are overseas? Which foreign government is paying you to post your propaganda? I live here. Don’t know anyone leaving, but I know a ton settling here.

Btw Sinan, welcome to the blog. Ignore this guy/girl he is just a troll.

MF

#66 crossbordershopper on 01.19.19 at 8:08 am

used to help high net worth people with option strategies. ok I use this one.
i simply buy a deep in the money put on the s and p, year out pay very little premium above intrinsic. the dividend during the year pays for the interest on the put purchase and the premium above instrinsic.
so i am 100% downside protected.
then i write a 2% otm call option on the spy every 2 days, so monday wed and friday i am writing out of the money. as everyone knows and stats indicate markets downt move 2% in 2 days 95% of the time, and i get that upside and the premium., the compounding effect of 150 premium recieved with 100% downside protection is best of both worlds.
i get no risk under any circumstance, and i get paid every 2 days the compounding effect is huge and i get the upside 95% of the time,
i ahve about 30% a year return with no risk what do you think. of course free commission helps.

#67 Casual Observer on 01.19.19 at 8:09 am

@Stan Brooks – #64

Borsa Istanbul (XU100) peaked like most EMs in Jan18 and was down 22% for the year. Turkish Lira, USD/TRY was down 29.94% (low of 43% in Aug18) which is why if you’re looking at Ishares Turkey ETF for example, losses hedged to USD are what you’re quoting.

#68 Stan Brooks on 01.19.19 at 8:59 am

#65 MF on 01.19.19 at 7:57 am

The question was for Sinan, not you.
I am not interested in your opinion.

#69 Stan Brooks on 01.19.19 at 9:06 am

#65 MF on 01.19.19 at 7:57 am

Ah, and that thing, for being foreign government paid troll – that was funny. The degree of propaganda and indoctrination that promotes exceptionalism (even against Americans) and makes every critique irrelevant as it is presented as an attack on the herd is quite astonishing. It actually works with some people quite well.

Of course you have no arguments against the facts, are quite happy with the ‘lack of inflation’ and enjoy a wealthy, healthy, interesting life.

#70 dharma bum on 01.19.19 at 9:34 am

Garth now has three.

This reminds me of our Vaudevillian past. And I mean that in the most complimentary way!

Garth = Ted Healey

Ryan = Moe Howard

Doug = Curly Howard

Sinan = Larry Fine

Check ’em all out right here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KuW6n3x92ys

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rpgqw8dw0ZE

Nyuk nyuk nyuk.

#71 Bdwy sktn on 01.19.19 at 9:35 am

44 sold out – it’s this stuff that keeps me coming back here.
Solid advice.

PS I have a boat for rent.
……….
Just back from travels thru LA, vegas,Laughlin, hours driving in empty Nevada desert. Kept an eye out for a drunken bald alien in flip flops. No sightings.
Casinos are one of the saddest places ive seen . The slots zombies in particular, and I live for ‘betting’ while staring at a screen all day….
…………

To the sell it all now guy. Time for that was in Sept. Got back in 2 weeks ago. Winning. China’s solution to fix the trade imbalance could add another quick 1k to the dow.

Back then it was problems 3.
1 fed. . Solved by auntie jan and uncle Ben. Fear level 0.

2. Trade war. Boss man trump bullied the prc with tarrifs and threats. It appears to be working smashingly. Not only a deal but the repeal of tarrifs will blast equities higher. Deal coming sooner than most could have imagined.

3. Overall slowdown. Strong earnings coming will once again show that the 20% drop was a hysterical overreaction.

#72 TurnerNation on 01.19.19 at 9:56 am

#11 Smoking Man. A picture of Trump as a “baldie”

https://imgur.com/gGKQ40m

I ran the new guy’s name through the Anagram makers. It put them into overdrive but no output of note.

#73 baloney Sandwitch on 01.19.19 at 10:01 am

I have been reading that we should put some money is the UK – the brexit stuff is freaking people out.
Any good etf’s for UK?

#74 NoName on 01.19.19 at 10:06 am

#66 crossbordershopper on 01.19.19 at 8:08 am
used to help high net worth people with option strategies. ok I use this one.
i simply buy a deep in the money put on the s and p, year out pay very little premium above intrinsic. the dividend during the year pays for the interest on the put purchase and the premium above instrinsic.
so i am 100% downside protected.
then i write a 2% otm call option on the spy every 2 days, so monday wed and friday i am writing out of the money. as everyone knows and stats indicate markets downt move 2% in 2 days 95% of the time, and i get that upside and the premium., the compounding effect of 150 premium recieved with 100% downside protection is best of both worlds.
i get no risk under any circumstance, and i get paid every 2 days the compounding effect is huge and i get the upside 95% of the time,
i ahve about 30% a year return with no risk what do you think. of course free commission helps.

You are some interesting guy, i just have hard time connecting Barton street kid and calls and puts on snp. All odds were against you but you seems to made it.
Interesting…

#75 Concerned Reader on 01.19.19 at 10:21 am

Welcome aboard! What do you think of the Turkish government’s attempt to have Enes Kanter arrested? Are autocratic governments good or bad for the markets?

#76 options on 01.19.19 at 10:40 am

options trading isnt for everyone.

from my experence any older chap who is an ‘experienced’ options trading and is working for another? Isn’t a good options trader, sorry. If they were, they wouldn’t have to work for another (again we are talking older chaps here)

sinan, dont go crazy trading clients accounts

#77 Spectacle ( probabilistically) on 01.19.19 at 10:58 am

I second that Sinan::
Re ” 7 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.18.19 at 5:15 pm
Great explanation Sinan.
Always good to hear from someone with experience in the markets….

Unfortunately , Garth has released the Hounds (blogdogs) upon you.”
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~|||~~~~~~~~~~~

” probabilistically ”
Hey , You can’t just drop a bone on us like this in Your summation/conclusion and not have clearly referenced it in your above posting Sinan. You do have me eagerly waiting your clarification in depth of the topic!

Ps. What is your experience with Dogs?
Cheers /welcome : )

” Probabilistic is derived from probability which in general is based on randomness in the occurrence of events.

So the difference is that Deterministic models suggest there are known causes of events,whereas Probabilistic models are based on pure probability alone.”
Source: Internet Wikidictionary

#78 baloney Sandwitch on 01.19.19 at 11:08 am

#66 crossbordershopper on 01.19.19 at 8:08 am

Looks like you are betting against sudden upside moves in the short term (by selling OTM calls) and insuring yourself against a long term decline (buying deep ITM puts).

The risk in your call writing position is unlimited – if for example the market goes up by 3% you can lose months of profit. Premiums are minimal but risk is high.

Also most of your puts expire worthless. Depends on how deep in the money you are writing.

#79 baloney Sandwitch on 01.19.19 at 11:24 am

#66 crossbordershopper

Hard to beleive you can money with a simple strategy like this. You may be deluding yourself by selling big/infrequent risk for small frequent premiums. Plus the timing & depth of your hedges are not matched. Logically your risks are not quantifiable.

#80 baloney Sandwitch on 01.19.19 at 11:31 am

#73 options on 01.19.19 at 10:40 am

Agree. I have been trading options for 10 years now. Good years I may OK money – bad years I lose a lot. Its a tough gig
and experience, risk and expense control is critical.

#81 TurnerNation on 01.19.19 at 11:44 am

52 Smartalox that is true but the logo is of a Water Bearer
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aquarius_(astrology)
Zodiac symbol Water-Bearer

– In another Co-indicence in past year I had two very smart people I bumped into and briefly met tell me that the #1 thing to watch will be Water. Water wars?
One person is a young up and comer in the Govt; the other is a senior person at a public company.
Out of the blue they told me this. As if I needed to know.

#82 DON on 01.19.19 at 12:12 pm

Is Trump about to get his Chinese trade deal? Reducing the trade deficit. Next the wall?

China is hurting, and expected to keep on hurting for a while after the new deal (when/if it comes) due to property and corporate debt.

But Trump is getting stuff done.

#83 Tom Mac on 01.19.19 at 12:27 pm

If you are a technician, you look for a 61% retracement from top to bottom of a correction. We’re pretty much there with the TSX 60. So if it gets through here, we’re likely going higher. If not, look for new lows in my opinion.

#84 Barb on 01.19.19 at 12:46 pm

Welcome aboard the good ship, Sinan.
Ignore the lollipops.

#85 no on 01.19.19 at 12:55 pm

‘The risk in your call writing position is unlimited – if for example the market goes up by 3% you can lose months of profit. Premiums are minimal but risk is high.’

false

selling covered calls is a CONSERVATIVE means to increase yield of a portfolio. You are giving upside away in exchange for the premium.

another way to look at it is; you’re renting your portfolio for the call option period. SELLING calls, not buying

#86 Shawn Allen on 01.19.19 at 1:00 pm

Funds Flows Misunderstood and a Good Question

#53 Ryan Rowie on 01.18.19 at 10:51 pm asked?

Just a comment, If in December there were $143 Billion in US Market outflows, wouldn’t that money need to flow back in for the market to be up 13%?

*********************************
Good question and illustrates how the financial press misrepresents funds flows.

Funds flows are only looking at what mutual fund investors are doing, not ALL investors.

When mutual fund investors take $13 billion out of stocks in December the mutual funds raise the cash for redemptions by selling shares to other investors who put $13 billion dollars in. Zero money flows into or out of stocks in total in this way.

Also when markets rise or fall zero net dollars flow into or out of stocks as a result.

Imagine if some cannabis stock with a market value of $10 billion was delisted overnight due to some giant scandal. No one would be able to sell on the market. Even privately the shares would be close to worthless. $10 billion would have evaporated into thin air without a single dollar flowing into or out of the market.

Funds flows refers only to a sub-set of investors, mutual fund investors. Sometimes known as the dumb money. The financial press forget to mention that and imply there is actually a net flow into or out of the market.

Trading creates no net money flows intoi or out of an asset class, ever. IPOs, secondary share offerings and share buy backs and dividends are where money actually flows.

#87 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.19.19 at 1:04 pm

@ baloney sandwich

Have you ever tried Peanut butter and baloney sandwiches?
Apparently its very good but with enough fat in it to stop a bus.

I’ve never tried it.
I cant stand baloney.
Nothing personal.

#88 tkid on 01.19.19 at 1:58 pm

Enough about your investing philosophy. I want to know about the serious stuff: are you a dog or cat person?

#89 Raging Ranter on 01.19.19 at 3:04 pm

A post about options strategies would be awesome.

#90 Ken semotiuk on 01.19.19 at 5:26 pm

The stock market like all financial markets are rigged, the central banks are propping the stock market.

#91 PGer on 01.19.19 at 11:42 pm

Welcome Sinan,
Thanks for your well-written advice. I have a similar take on the markets and human behaviour.

But don’t read the stupids (like me) in the comments section. It’s like that rather dumb Netflix Bird Box movie – don’t look.

#92 acdel on 01.20.19 at 7:41 pm

#59 n1tro

lol, ok, we both agree that this conversation needs to end. I guess I need a few things to work out,ha,ha!
A mirror is a good reflection, I cannot believe that I replied back to this post. Have a good day!