As predicted

On the final day of 2017, this foolhardy blog made some predictions. In the noblest tradition of accountability, we’ll ignore the ones that were turkeys (‘a balanced portfolio will do just fine’) and pretend that everything printed here, lo, came to pass.

Anyway below are the top four things forecast for the year just passed. Apparently I am (almost) Nostradamus.

  • The cost of money goes up in 2018. A lot. The Bank of Canada will increase its benchmark rate three times.

It did. Our central bank raised its benchmark rate in January, July and October.

  • The Fed goes three times, too. At least. That will bring to eight the number of quarter-point jumps in roughly 24 months, taking the rate from zero to 2% or more – with further increases expected in 2019 and 2020.

Ditto. The American central bank jacked rates four times during 2018. It has now indicated a ‘neutral’ rate is getting closer, which will mean 3-4 more over the next 18 months.

  • Five-year, fixed-rate mortgages will hit 4% in 2018. The benchmark central bank mortgage rate will be more than 5.5%. Newbie real estate buyers will have to qualify at the higher of that, or the contract bank rate plus 2%. Ouch.

Close, but no cigar. The best discounted five-year rate at the big banks is currently 3.74%, and the benchmark mortgage stress test rate is 5.34%, with the effective rate at 5.74%.

  • The stress test, B20, will crater sales and depress prices for at least first three months of 2018. There’s no point predicting anything past that. This is too fluid a situation as rising rates and tighter regs do battle with the house-horny loins of the Mills, who now compose the largest demographic. God help us.

Well, that happened, too. But it took longer for the effect of B20 to show up in the stats, and when it did the impact was fierce. New evidence was reluctantly, painfully released by realtors on Tuesday. It shows the market has started into a correction that is widespread – and unlikely to end soon. The coming spring market could end in tears.

Here’s a summary of the carnage: It was the worst year for sales in more than half a decade, rolling the total back to 2012 levels. The number of transactions was almost 20% lower than one year ago. “Monthly declines in activity since September,” says CREA, “have fully retrenched its summer rally and returned it near the lowest level since early 2013.” Yikes.

Led by Vancouver (where else?) things slid in 60% of all Canadian markets last month. In Toronto the plop was 15% below long-term averages, while in YVR the decline was a withering 40%. Over the course of a year, buyers have retreated in three-quarters of the country, led by the LM, the Okanagan, Calgary & Edmonton, the GTA and Hamilton.

And, yes, prices are not immune, even though residential real estate is the stickiest of all assets. The value of a house, on average everywhere, is down 5% in the past year. That number does not capture the magnitude of the decline, of course, since markets improved last year before falling off the edge. As detailed here, the average detached house in 416, for example, is down 27%, or $432,000, since the spring of ’17, and off 19% in the past seven months.

This is the big unwind that a certain pathetic blog has forecast since many readers were in Huggies playing with their toes. Real estate markets do not crash. They deflate. It took six years in the US for things to unwind from their 2006 high – and they’re still recovering. When buyers vanish and prices slump, most sellers (being greedy) simply end their listings and wait. In the majority of markets that’s precisely what has happened. So a price decline when the number of available listings falls is telling. It looks like those owners who left the market to await better times will be selling for less next year.

What now?

The stress test isn’t going anywhere, it seems. Just days ago T2 said federal policies to cool off housing were doing exactly what was intended. No changes are foreseen. So new buyers or renewers changing lenders will have to prove they can buy at the benchmark level. Meanwhile the Bank of Canada is not done with rate hikes. Scotiabank on Friday forecast at least two more to come this year, taking five-year mortgages beyond 4%.

Household debt levels are going up, not down. Wage growth over the last year was less than the inflation rate. Mortgages are no less costly. The stress test remains in full force. Chinese buyers were warned by their government this week they could face ‘arbitrary arrest’ if they venture to Canada. So, kids, tell me where the buyers will come from to turn this ship around?

Oh, and here’s a new report from Capital Economics saying a glut of new homes is about to hit the market, especially in Vancouver – since developers failed to see the slowing market two years ago. “As has been typical of historic real estate cycles around the world, new supply will reach the market just as demand is falling.” In Vancouver that will mean 40,000 unsold units.

Hmm. You might have noticed there were no 2019 predictions published here in the final days of last month. Instead you got wimpy ‘expectations.’ I may have to change that going forward being, like, so awesome.

About the picture...

“I saw this photo in Melbourne Australia today,” writes blog dog Ellen, “and thought of your blog. I guess the message is: ‘why bother saving, you’ll never get there.’ No dog in sight though. My apologies.”

 

112 comments ↓

#1 Andrewski on 01.15.19 at 4:53 pm

I can’t help but feel bad for the Greater Fools who bought real estate in the last year, egged on by their real estate agent, or worse their parents or family. Now they have to hold on, or sell at a loss.

#2 Jason on 01.15.19 at 5:08 pm

First. Just wanting to wish everyone a good evening. Hug you loved ones. Cheers.

#3 crossbordershopper on 01.15.19 at 5:20 pm

well if you are going to be in an overheated real estate market might as well be down under at least the weather is better. and I guess you can live outside kinda.

#4 Ustabe on 01.15.19 at 5:22 pm

It is late lunch time here on the West Coast so I went to the drive through where I ordered a few hamberders.

In solidarity, don’t you know.

Sun is out, traffic is fine, I just stumbled upon my first deal of 2019. Hope 2019 is looking as fine for all of you as it is for me.

#5 NorthOf49 on 01.15.19 at 5:22 pm

“…in Huggies playing with their toes.”

Lol, pure gold Garth!

#6 Dave on 01.15.19 at 5:23 pm

I personally know of 2 Real Estate agents in BC that have over 15 year experience each, have quit and started new careers in different industries.

#7 Esther Bighill on 01.15.19 at 5:24 pm

Garth, will it always be 60/40 no matter what? Could it ever go to 70/30 if the stars align?

#8 yorkville renter on 01.15.19 at 5:33 pm

Those who don’t learn from history are bound to repeat it…

https://www.reddit.com/r/canada/comments/5y65ku/real_estate_rise_and_demise_in_19891990_toronto/

funny – “Asian Investors” was the complaint in 1990 too!

#9 yvrguy on 01.15.19 at 5:35 pm

#7 Esther Bighill on 01.15.19 at 5:24 pm
Garth, will it always be 60/40 no matter what? Could it ever go to 70/30 if the stars align?

///////////

I’m 80/20. it’s whatever your stomach can handle.

#10 millmech on 01.15.19 at 5:38 pm

Waiting for the other shoe to drop with the Chinese Government, you know the one where they make it a capital crime to hold real estate in Canada.
Being that they know how much of our economy is dependent on it and what would happen to the value of the market with all of those assets being disposed of ASAP it would hurt a lot.

#11 not 1st on 01.15.19 at 5:40 pm

Garth should like these two articles;

It’s just a gold mine!

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/homeandproperty/‘it’s-just-a-gold-mine’-realtor-weighs-in-on-abandoned-luxury-fixer-upper-sold-in-scarborough/ar-BBSfA94?ocid=spartanntp

ETF sales grow

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/savingandinvesting/etf-sales-grow-but-mutual-funds-still-rule/ar-BBSeiee?ocid=spartanntp

#12 Im Therious on 01.15.19 at 5:59 pm

*** Schluuuuuurp ***
^^^
(obligatory sucking up sound to get a response)

Garth,

What multiple of house cost/income do you advise your clients to never breach? 5x? 6x? 10x?

What percentage of net worth should a person have in a house (or a single asset class)?

Cheers.

#13 Heather Hallam on 01.15.19 at 6:13 pm

I live in the Okanagan. Assessment increased by 7%. So, what happened?

Seven months old. – Garth

#14 WUL on 01.15.19 at 6:26 pm

The UK should hold as many referenda on Brexit until they get it right. Why on earth would any government try to govern on the basis of the will of the people? Who cares what the populace thinks? Can you imagine the state of Canada’s affairs if everyone was able to chime in on government policy? Most of my neighbours are idjits. Whatever happened to leaders and statesmen and stateswomen just doing what they think is right and risking losing their jobs at the polls? Cameron was a dolt for calling for the first one. A sorry mess.

#15 not 1st on 01.15.19 at 6:48 pm

Canada well on its way to becoming economic backwater.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=136&v=BXjV4Tl7bQg

Bill C69 – the never build anything anywhere ever again legislation is moving through parliament courtesy of your liberal govt.

Garth seems unconcerned.

#16 MF on 01.15.19 at 7:02 pm

“Chinese buyers were warned by their government this week they could face ‘arbitrary arrest’ if they venture to Canada.”

-Yawn. The Chinese Government has been trying to crackdown the money fleeing the country for a long time already. Like decades.

” So, kids, tell me where the buyers will come from to turn this ship around?”

-Umm, how about the people who live here?

MF

#17 SimplyPut7 on 01.15.19 at 7:06 pm

Scotiabank on Friday forecast at least two more to come this year, taking five-year mortgages beyond 4%.

————–

I didn’t know we had any banks brave enough to admit we are going to get two more hikes in 2019.

#18 Trumpocalypse2019 on 01.15.19 at 7:18 pm

Smart Brits are stockpiling food, medicine and fuel for Brexit.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-12-07/brexit-preparedness-why-are-brits-stockpiling-food-medicine/10592332

What we will face soon will be many times worse.

PREPARE

#19 Ace Goodheart on 01.15.19 at 7:24 pm

May-ster is done-ster. She’ll be remembered in history as the woman who tried to save the UK from itself. Right wing nationalists rule the day now. Take cover. These folks don’t make sense and love fake crisis.

Kudos to the Canadian dude facing the death penalty in China. This is just awesome for those of us who have lived over there. When I was a South East Asian expat 20 years ago, they would execute a foreigner about once a month for drug offences. Canadian govt wouldn’t say boo about it. Biggest offender was Singapore.

They told you when you went over, drug crimes in Asia are death by firing squad. Be careful. Some people weren’t. The Canadian govt would help out your relatives with where to ship the casket.

This dude has the Canadian PM calling out China for a routine drug execution. And It’s working. Dude you are the luckiest guy in the world.

Is Trump a Russian agent? This is more awesomeness. All the pieces fit. Can you imagine if Russia had managed to pull this off? Hat trick of the century. They win. That would be impossible to “Trump” that one. Time will tell…….

#20 Casey on 01.15.19 at 7:39 pm

Neat. Now tell us what happens to a value of bonds when rates go up.

#21 acdel on 01.15.19 at 7:41 pm

Not sure what to make of this headline?

https://calgaryherald.com/investing/youve-got-nowhere-to-hide-rising-interest-rates-wreak-havoc-on-fixed-income-etfs/wcm/15183563-230a-4141-8ddc-429aa8074679

Could not find the link but I bet it was a real estate backed article that proclaimed that Calgary house values rose 5%; I just shook me head, what a complete lie.

#22 Leichendiener on 01.15.19 at 7:42 pm

“since many readers were in Huggies playing with their toes.” Agreed. Masterful.

#23 Brian on 01.15.19 at 7:47 pm

West side single family houses had the highest run up and now the largest drop so far with things selling (if they sell at all) 20-30 percent below assessed. That’s right folks. Even with a 20 percent down payment if you bought a west side VANCOUVER house you are under water. 100 percent plus loss.

This will eventually spread to delusional east side where townhouses are still going for more than a million. Idiots.

#24 Arto on 01.15.19 at 7:49 pm

Chinese buyers were warned by their government this week they could face ‘arbitrary arrest’ if they venture to Canada. So, kids, tell me where the buyers will come from to turn this ship around?

But, But I thought Chinese buyers made no difference to prices in Vancouver????

#25 Brian Ripley on 01.15.19 at 8:01 pm

What multiple of house cost/income do you advise your clients to never breach? 5x? 6x? 10x? What percentage of net worth should a person have in a house (or a single asset class)? #12 Im Therious

I’m not sure that housing value relative to net worth “should” be defined so precisely. Retired people with a clear title home and income that is well off their earlier peak earning days don’t think in those terms, whereas young families starting off generally are looking at debt and monthly payments relative to their incomes not their net worth.

On my affordability page http://www.chpc.biz/affordability.html#Rent

…I have tried to address this with help from Demographia and some older notes from Realtor’s back of the napkin calculations which in a FOMO market becomes useless… ie:

BUY REAL ESTATE IF:
Sale Price is 10 to 15 x Gross Annual Rent for an investor with a 10-15 year horizon.
Sale Price is 15 to 25 x Gross Annual Rent for a property that has significant value attributes (location, potential etc) and a potential 15-25 year horizon

In ​​​My Vancouver Condo Study I used a 2x or 3x multiple of the Bank of Canada 10 Year Bond Yield return as risk insurance on an income approach evaluation. That was in May of 2013 when I thought the investor class had investment rules for real estate, but the FOMO crowd as mentioned, ran over everyone.

#26 Long-Time Lurker on 01.15.19 at 8:05 pm

A big defeat for UK PM Theresa May’s Brexit deal:

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46885828

#27 AGuyInVancouver on 01.15.19 at 8:08 pm

#10 millmech on 01.15.19 at 5:38 pm
Waiting for the other shoe to drop with the Chinese Government, you know the one where they make it a capital crime to hold real estate in Canada.
Being that they know how much of our economy is dependent on it and what would happen to the value of the market with all of those assets being disposed of ASAP it would hurt a lot.
_ _ _
Please, may our prayers be heard and that be the case. May President Xi shower poor Vancouverites with such wisdom and benevolence.

#28 Rargary on 01.15.19 at 8:18 pm

Chinese won’t stop buying here…recent article says a third of
HK’ers want to leave there and Canada was one of top on their list… & #6 Dave, realtors become leasing agents and property managers… they usually suck at it too.
Garth, you have predicted a few things for 2019…3 rate increases, housing to continue on downward trend and good time to buy etfs as prices are lower. I think you will be bang on

#29 expat on 01.15.19 at 8:31 pm

@ more rate increases should pretty much topple those families who bought in the last 3 years.

It is alway shard ot watch end-of-cyle stories like whats coming.

Then I remind myself of the kitchen where your neighbors laugh at you as you tell you just sold all your rentals after 30 years…..

Only a fool woudl sell after a 800% INCREASE!

#30 Dolce Vita on 01.15.19 at 8:33 pm

Practice your Quatrains.

Prescient.

#31 Online threats on 01.15.19 at 8:35 pm

Hi Garth, I see ur friend Christine that got that girl here from Saudi is getting online threats so 24 hr security for her now. My son had on line threats and we didn’t get any security. Canada is turning into a joke. They should ship her back ASAP! We don’t want her. Just a bunch of media garbage

#32 Godth on 01.15.19 at 8:44 pm

Prof Steve Keen on house price collapse, and QE robbery (29Dec18) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lgn-NsLGqtU
2008 for canada and australia, the usa turns japanese.
STEVE KEEN on How Democracy Has Failed
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pnfP4gvUGB8
the russians did brexit too but i’m not a bigot.
Scientists issue dire warning in new study finding last year was likely the hottest on record
“It is too late to stop serious global warming,” warns scientist. https://thinkprogress.org/study-2018-is-shaping-up-to-be-the-hottest-year-on-record-as-ocean-warming-speeds-up-a08a85c8438a/
we’ve extincted ourselves proving the fermi paradox correct. congratulations – we did it!
fear and greed are a hell of a way to go.

#33 What gives in the Okanagan? on 01.15.19 at 8:51 pm

Prices could slide beyond the 17% drop since July and BC Assessment will still jack the assessed value.

What gives is BC Assessed values and the municipalities taking their bs information are putting it to good use to make you feel rich, then taxing your a$$ to the moon.

Don’t worry, the value will go up next year, and the year after that and so on. It is called we need tax revenues. You really think taxes are ever going to drop?

Seeing sales 100k below the so called BC Assessed value right now. That still won’t change your tax bill.

#34 Frank N’ Beans on 01.15.19 at 8:52 pm

Garth! You forgot to mention your epically accurate prediction that Bitcoin etc. would $H1t the bed. You were so so bang on.

#35 I don’t want open borders on 01.15.19 at 8:55 pm

DELETED

#36 NFN_NLN on 01.15.19 at 8:58 pm

> Chinese buyers were warned by their government this week they could face ‘arbitrary arrest’ if they venture to Canada.

Arbitrary arrest by which government? How many CEO daughters does that Huawei executive have?

#37 Remembrancer on 01.15.19 at 8:59 pm

#16 MF on 01.15.19 at 7:02 pm
“Chinese buyers were warned by their government this week they could face ‘arbitrary arrest’ if they venture to Canada.”

-Yawn. The Chinese Government has been trying to crackdown the money fleeing the country for a long time already. Like decades.

” So, kids, tell me where the buyers will come from to turn this ship around?”

-Umm, how about the people who live here?

MF
———————————————————-
With you MF – which is it BC, get the money launderers out so “regular” people can afford RE again or OMG, China is gonna kill our RE market by outlawing ownership in Canada? Jeez…

#38 Militia on 01.15.19 at 9:02 pm

Good evening,
I work for a car buying company and its very uuuugly. Down 34% Dec to Dec and down 51% first 2 weeks of January. New dealers, used car dealers and auctions are dead. Good Luck.

#39 Ustabe on 01.15.19 at 9:09 pm

#31 Online threats on 01.15.19 at 8:35 pm

Hi Garth, I see ur friend Christine that got that girl here from Saudi is getting online threats so 24 hr security for her now. My son had on line threats and we didn’t get any security. Canada is turning into a joke. They should ship her back ASAP! We don’t want her. Just a bunch of media garbage

This is so devoid of empathy and is so demonstrative of intellectual speciousness that I am speechless except to point out that anything Canada can do to piss off Saudi Arabia is totally fine by me.

#40 akashic record on 01.15.19 at 9:57 pm

It Is What It Is.

As “predicted” by Russel FourEagles, the 202nd grandchild medicine person in his family. He learnt it from his Oneida grandmother.

I am thankful he shared. It works for weather, interest rate change, market shift, medical condition and many more. It gives you solid ground when nobody can see the future direction.

#41 Trumpocalypse2019 on 01.15.19 at 10:00 pm

Take a moment and think very carefully about this.

Every hour the US government is shut down (24 days now) foreign miscreants and hackers are able to penetrate critical data across the US and western world with much greater success.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/14/opinions/government-shutdown-threat-cybersecurity-payton/index.html

This has already passed the tipping point.

Russia, China and North Korea especially are quietly celebrating. The West is barely paying attention, just grabbing popcorn to watch the Trump theatrics.

The US is now toast. So is Canada.

PREPARE

#42 the Jaguar on 01.15.19 at 10:07 pm

Why all the belly aching about the stress test? The difference on the payment of a 400,000 ish mortgage with it is 400.00-450.00 ish per month. If you are so ‘squeezed’ that a payment increase in that range causes your feet to be held to the fire then adjust your expectations or your savings level. Mercy! Are memories that short? You don’t even have to be old WUL to visualize what higher rates can mean to your budget, especially those who decide to spawn a kid or two during the process. I feel more empathy for those who bought two years ago as they got swept up into the FOMO tsunami. Better not get divorced is all I can say. Never mind what your property assessment says ( especially in Van Town). If you prick up your ears and listen carefully you will note the music has stopped.

#43 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.15.19 at 10:13 pm

#107 Deplorable Dude on 01.15.19 at 10:54 am
Trump is doing a pretty crappy job of being a Russian proxy.

Just today…..news that The US Ambassador in Germany Richard Grenell is threatening sanctions against German companies (BASF and Uniper energy). If they work on Putin’s new Gas pipeline they may not be allowed to work on US projects.
——–
Grenell, like his boss Trump, is absolutely ignored in Germany.
They just don’t deal with clowns.

They are just waiting for a new A

#44 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.15.19 at 10:20 pm

Not a big fan of Mr. Market.
But he’s doing his job in BC.
69% of new construction is rental.
Projections are in five years there will be more renters than owners.

#45 The real Kip (Ret) on 01.15.19 at 10:21 pm

Hmmm. Makes me glad I’ve got the house paid off before I retired. No stress nor test, get it?

#46 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.15.19 at 10:23 pm

#6 Dave on 01.15.19 at 5:23 pm
I personally know of 2 Real Estate agents in BC that have over 15 year experience each, have quit and started new careers in different industries.
—————-
Used car sales persons?

#47 Tony on 01.15.19 at 10:42 pm

Re: #20 Casey on 01.15.19 at 7:39 pm

Bonds fall but I don’t know how much more baloney America can come up with. They fudge all the data figures. I can’t see America raising the Fed funds rate as more and more corporations file for chapter 11 and Americans get poorer with each passing year.

#48 Tony on 01.15.19 at 10:46 pm

Re: #34 Frank N’ Beans on 01.15.19 at 8:52 pm

What about his prediction on oil? I had oil pegged right.

#49 I’m stupid on 01.15.19 at 11:23 pm

#28 Ragary

Take a survey at how many Canadians want to leave Canada. I can bet the number will be high, especially in January. Wanting to leave and actually leaving are two different things. Leaving your home country isn’t an easy thing. You have anchors there, family, friends, a job, language etc etc. People usually leave when they’re desperate. Until then surveys like the one you quoted are just opinion pieces.

#50 Adrian on 01.15.19 at 11:24 pm

Professor Steve Keen called it! Glad to see you coming around, Garth.

#51 DON on 01.15.19 at 11:49 pm

#39 Ustabe on 01.15.19 at 9:09 pm

#31 Online threats on 01.15.19 at 8:35 pm

Hi Garth, I see ur friend Christine that got that girl here from Saudi is getting online threats so 24 hr security for her now. My son had on line threats and we didn’t get any security. Canada is turning into a joke. They should ship her back ASAP! We don’t want her. Just a bunch of media garbage

This is so devoid of empathy and is so demonstrative of intellectual speciousness that I am speechless except to point out that anything Canada can do to piss off Saudi Arabia is totally fine by me.
**********

I’m in agreement as well. Same with China.

#52 Smoking Man on 01.16.19 at 12:04 am

Toxic Masculinity. Sign me up. I can grow a beard.

Short P&G the backlash is going to be brutal. When CEOs of global companies most of them dumb as wood who only got to where they are by kissing ass, going to the right parties and saying the right shit.

They have no clue of the underlying resentment and real danger that’s out there pretending to be their friend.

They cluelessly bend over to what they think is the progressave approach not seeing the mean disgruntsled fat elephant in the room advising them whos only real accomplishment in life is they ate too many burgers.

Gillette is finished as a brand. Wrong ad agency.

Who is next?

#53 DON on 01.16.19 at 12:35 am

China’s reputation is somewhat tarnished (more than usual) in the last couple of months. It’s like frenemies are becoming enemies again but with increased trade ties.

Obviously, we side with the US and by relation President Trump. Trump appears to be tough on China. Wait and see how this plays out. A horse that Trump can ride to his second term. He’ll been seen as fighting against an oppressive regime. Wonder if US plant automation will replace cheap labour from China. Maybe Trump will throw that into the mix adding to his bring manufacturing home?

Will have to wait and see how this Trumps out.

Gotta wonder when Trump will bring up the quality of products coming out of China?

I also wonder if FBI/LA/Chinese/Money is also a build up for reasons why to fear Chinese influence etc.

Our PM asked Trump for help.

In 3 2 1 Trump will tweet “I am protecting the Free World from aggressive, rudderless regimes”

Deep down you know it is coming. Trump is an opportunist and this can get him re-elected. Standing firm against oppressive governments.

#54 slick on 01.16.19 at 1:21 am

#1 Andrewski;
Anyone that bought RE in the last year prolly plans on holding it for some time. If they were flipping it, then it serves them right.
RE is a long game.

As an aside, no one mentions the affect of inflation on borrowed money. Assuming a 2% avg inflation target, in ten years you are repaying with dollars worth 20 % less. borrowing money now at 4% or less for a long term, means that you are repaying the debt with dollars that are worth less in the future.

#55 Donkeyballs on 01.16.19 at 1:26 am

#31 is 200% RIGHT

#56 acdel on 01.16.19 at 1:38 am

https://calgarysun.com/opinion/cartoons/jan-15-2019/wcm/1cc82c14-9775-4db7-8d62-5cda0d1cfab5

#57 Not So New guy on 01.16.19 at 1:49 am

“Hmm. You might have noticed there were no 2019 predictions published here in the final days of last month. Instead you got wimpy ‘expectations.’ I may have to change that going forward being, you know, so awesome.”

=====

How do you fit that head through the internet cable?

#58 Nonplused on 01.16.19 at 3:35 am

My portfolio, at least measured in CAD, did not suffer a huge draw-down in 2018 mostly because I still have 20% of it in gold. I’m still sad I didn’t sell some of it at $1900 though.

I’ve been here long enough to remember Garth used to recommend 5-10% in gold. Well he hasn’t for years, saying now the number should be zero. But 20% in gold saved my bacon in 2018. Although I suppose just holding USD would have done very close to the same thing.

Gold is a currency speculation. That’s why central banks buy and hold it. The US Fed is still the largest holder if they are to be believed. But it is still a speculation.

Put 5-10% of your portfolio in gold as Garth used to advise. Or silver, but my experience is that silver is not as good as gold as a currency or market speculation. Silver commentators keep saying, and they have for years, the silver-gold ratio is low so silver will go up but it never does.

#59 Where's The Money Greedea-UN? on 01.16.19 at 4:09 am

#1 For those about to flop… on 01.13.19 at 4:59 pm
CONFIRMED PINK SNOW

This was one of my earliest cases that I accumulated after I started to look around the city to see if the problem with the market was more widespread than the edges beginning to fray in my neighborhood.

So it took them two years to exit the market, they fought the good fight to minimize the loss and I should have already reported it but it was labeled as just “removed” by the fine folks at Zolo.

I don’t get it, I really don’t.

B.c assessment acting shady.

Zolo acting shady.

Zealty ,unfortunately acting shady, but are they only being fed a certain percentage of the information to keep the illusion of a soft landing going?

Last week I had roughly ten sales in my Pink Snow folder.

I could only find sales information on two.

Why?

Either Zolo,Zealty and the rest of them are allowed to report all the sales or why bother at all.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
I went to the Zealty website and now they aren’t showing days on market anymore for their listings. So the Board must have been putting the pressure on to conform.
There were listings that were showing over 200 days on market (since last spring). I guess they don’t want to show you the truth that sales are dive-bombing out here in Bring Cash.
They are five listings in W. Abbotsford that are listed that have been on the market for at least 80-100 days, including the 200 day’er. I’ve been following those and the ones in Chilliwack since the summer to see if the media here in BC is lying when they say that prices are going up in those areas. Just proved my point.
Crazy now that they have re-listed at a lower price they are saying it’s a NEW listing! How can they not be sued or fined for misleading advertising!
How low will these salespeople go to try to entice some greater fool.
Last time I go to that site because why should I, it’s no different than the rest now.

Tool – Intolerance

I don’t want to be hostile.
I don’t want to be dismal.
But I don’t want to rot in an apathetic existence either.
See
I want to believe you
and I want to trust
and I want to have faith to put away the dagger.
But you lie cheat and steal.
And yet
I tolerate you…..
while you
lie, cheat, and steal.
How can I tolerate you.

#60 Madcat on 01.16.19 at 5:29 am

#31,
Woah!! This young woman is exactly the type of refuge we want to help. I grew up in Saudi Arabia and we should be helping as many of these young women who manage to escape thier dark aged monarch and religious police as we can.

#61 Madcat on 01.16.19 at 5:37 am

#16 MF and #37 Remembrancer

Can you guys seriously not tell when Garth is being facetious…

#62 Howard on 01.16.19 at 5:49 am

#6 Dave on 01.15.19 at 5:23 pm
I personally know of 2 Real Estate agents in BC that have over 15 year experience each, have quit and started new careers in different industries.

—————————————–

Wouldn’t it be great if the real estate cartel could simply be content with its winnings over the past 20 years and just go away for a few years?

#63 Howard on 01.16.19 at 5:52 am

#10 millmech on 01.15.19 at 5:38 pm
Waiting for the other shoe to drop with the Chinese Government, you know the one where they make it a capital crime to hold real estate in Canada.

—————————————

I will have a perpetual grin on my face all day imagining this glorious possibility.

#64 dharma bum on 01.16.19 at 8:12 am

Household debt levels are going up, not down. Wage growth over the last year was less than the inflation rate. Mortgages are no less costly. The stress test remains in full force. – Garth
——————————————————————–

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=msDcShv_r20

#65 Trumpocalypse2019 on 01.16.19 at 8:17 am

Further to my point at #41.

Trump knows the shutdown will provide a quiet opportunity for his allied Russian hackers to penetrate all government cyber data. That’s why he did it. He needs this, as Mueller prepares for his end days. Get ready for a slew of new distractions ahead as Trump spirals towards war and chaos and his Russian comrades bring forth damaging data and interfere with US cyber security.

This is happening in real time, right now. Hardly anyone is paying attention. And now Britain, too.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/16/politics/us-donald-trump-shutdown-britain-theresa-may-brexit-russia-putin/index.html

This will be huge.

PREPARE

#66 XI Jinping on 01.16.19 at 8:24 am

DELETED

#67 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.16.19 at 8:40 am

@#14WUL
“The UK should hold as many referenda on Brexit until they get it right.”
+++++
Nah, Winston Churchill hated referendums. He felt the population were either too stupid or too lazy to understand the multiple issues involved in Govt policy.
He was right.
The main themes with voters boiled down to “control over immigration” and “we pay more in to the EU than we get out”….
Ugh. If only it were that simple.
It reminded me of the Quebec seperatist vote.
“We’ll leave and still sell our products to the same people for the same price. Everything will be fine…”
People voting for simplistic ideas when there’s way way more at stake.
David Cameron called that referendum to get his own party off his back for their tanking poll numbers.
A lazy politician bereft of new ideas that played poker and lost….now the whole country is ripping itself apart.
I cant wait to see Apr.1st when they go crashing out of the EU and there’s no precedent to fall back on.
I hope they have “plan B” for the thousands of Customs agents they will have to hire for the border inspections….
Another referendum until they get it “right”? Please.
Britain is gonna look pretty foolish if they have to backpedal and go get to the EU and say it was all a silly mistake.
The EU is not amused at this bs and will grind out an even more painful deal to reinstate Blighty back into the fold.
Elizabeth May will go down as “the wrong leader at the wrong time.”. A bland politician with zero charisma trying to sell an unpopular deal with a minority govt. hanging by its fingernails.
Good luck with that.
She was toast before she even got started.
Reminds me of Kim Campbell as PM…reduced to 3 seats after the election.
And avowed socialist Jeremy Corbyn is waiting in the wings. Hugo Chavez and Lenin were ‘heros”.
His vision of Britain is to nationalise industries and put unions in the boardrooms….back to the 1970’s.
All while ignoring Scotland’s threats of another seperation vote, Then goes Wales, Northern Ireland.
Industry and investment money will leave a high tax and spend country of economic idiots running the country.

And the Russians laugh all the way to the bank….1st Trump then Brexit? Brilliant
Divide and conquer.

#68 LivinLarge on 01.16.19 at 8:42 am

Interesting point of view Trumpocalypse. Are the ant-cyber legions in the US off the job or just working w/o pay? Either way, you’d think their capacity to keep the US cyber protection fully effective must be impaired.

#69 Steven Rowlandson on 01.16.19 at 8:45 am

Human behavior does not always turn on a dime. Normalcy bias tends to get in the way of accepting truth and making changes.

#70 Steven Rowlandson on 01.16.19 at 8:50 am

I think it will take double digit interest rates to correct the real estate market and deter government borrowing.
May be medieval interest rates will do the trick. Some times it takes quite a lot to curb bad behavior.

#71 Godth on 01.16.19 at 8:55 am

DELETED

#72 Gillette on 01.16.19 at 9:03 am

#52 Smoking Man on 01.16.19 at 12:04 am

Smoking Man and Piers Morgan didn’t like the message. Enough said.

#73 Howard on 01.16.19 at 9:06 am

#67 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.16.19 at 8:40 am

Elizabeth May is not the Prime Minister of the UK.

#74 KLNR on 01.16.19 at 9:08 am

@#52 Smoking Man on 01.16.19 at 12:04 am
Toxic Masculinity. Sign me up. I can grow a beard.

Gillette is finished as a brand. Wrong ad agency.

Who is next?
______________________________

Interesting hot take considering how this campaign is being lauded.

#75 Smoking Man on 01.16.19 at 9:15 am

Peek Civilization before the Freeks took over.

https://youtu.be/OAkVDCqVY6w

#76 Godth on 01.16.19 at 9:19 am

UK Brexit Vote Reflects a Deep Crisis in Capitalism (Pt 1/2)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5FP-rwrlv_0
Jeremy Corbyn is a russian agent too. bigotry and scapegoating instead of admitting one’s own failings is the mature thing to do.

Renegade Inc: A Renegade View
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DkA4Pm56P3Q
2019, the year neoliberal globalization, the milton friedman vision, burns down.

#77 jess on 01.16.19 at 9:35 am

Press Release
SEC Brings Charges in Edgar Hacking Case

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
2019-1

Washington D.C., Jan. 15, 2019 —

The Securities and Exchange Commission today announced charges against nine defendants for participating in a previously disclosed scheme to hack into the SEC’s EDGAR system and extract nonpublic information to use for illegal trading. The SEC charged a Ukrainian hacker, six individual traders in California, Ukraine, and Russia, and two entities. The hacker and some of the traders were also involved in a similar scheme to hack into newswire services and trade on information that had not yet been released to the public. The SEC charged the hacker and other traders for that conduct in 2015 (see here, here and here).

The SEC’s complaint alleges that after hacking the newswire services, Ukrainian hacker Oleksandr Ieremenko turned his attention to EDGAR and, using deceptive hacking techniques, gained access in 2016. Ieremenko extracted EDGAR files containing nonpublic earnings results. The information was passed to individuals who used it to trade in the narrow window between when the files were extracted from SEC systems and when the companies released the information to the public. In total, the traders traded before at least 157 earnings releases from May to October 2016 and generated at least $4.1 million in illegal profits.

————–
“…and forgive them their debts,” in The Lord’s Prayer. changed to “…and forgive them their trespasses (or sins),”

https://michael-hudson.com/2018/08/and-forgive-them-their-debts/

#78 jess on 01.16.19 at 9:41 am

confirm or deny
2018-306

Washington D.C., Dec. 26, 2018 —

The Securities and Exchange Commission today announced that JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A. will pay more than $135 million to settle charges of improper handling of “pre-released” American Depositary Receipts (ADRs).

ADRs – U.S. securities that represent foreign shares of a foreign company – require a corresponding number of foreign shares to be held in custody at a depositary bank. The practice of “pre-release” allows ADRs to be issued without the deposit of foreign shares, provided brokers receiving them have an agreement with a depositary bank and the broker or its customer owns the number of foreign shares that corresponds to the number of shares the ADR represents.

The SEC’s order found that JPMorgan improperly provided ADRs to brokers in thousands of pre-release transactions when neither the broker nor its customers had the foreign shares needed to support those new ADRs. Such practices resulted in inflating the total number of a foreign issuer’s tradeable securities, which resulted in abusive practices like inappropriate short selling and dividend arbitrage that should not have been occurring.

This is the eighth action against a bank or broker, and fourth action against a depositary bank, resulting from the SEC’s ongoing investigation into abusive ADR pre-release practices. Information about ADRs is available in an SEC Investor Bulletin.

“With these charges against JPMorgan, the SEC has now held all four depositary banks accountable for their fraudulent issuances of ADRs into an unsuspecting market,” said Sanjay Wadhwa, Senior Associate Director of the SEC’s New York Regional Office. “Our investigation continues into brokerage firms that profited by making use of these improperly issued ADRs.

#79 David Pylyp on 01.16.19 at 9:43 am

When Governments borrow you pay interest; it is a ponzi scheme. We have hidden debt with #CPP and #IMMIGRATION #Pipelines and #studentdebt.

Inflation causes interest rate increases.

The cracks are starting to show with the drop off in sales of higher priced homes in Toronto.

The B20 Test is eliminating buyers; seniors being denied HELOC’s as they cannot qualify. That’s why Reverse Mortgages are BOOMING!

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2018-10-31/taleb-says-world-is-more-fragile-today-than-in-2007-video

Never before has “Buy within your means” been so accurate.

David Pylyp
Toronto

#80 Headhunter on 01.16.19 at 10:00 am

a broken clock is right twice a day.. not so for Trump haters ziltch in 2 years.

I stand by my 50% hit on housing. Too many converging factors all at once are coming down the pipeline.

Anyhow live a little cant take it with ya, enjoy before the bones start creaking and the mind starts to go

#81 Howard on 01.16.19 at 10:04 am

Markets back in the short zone. Retracement complete. New leg down about to begin for S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq.

#82 Dr Talc on 01.16.19 at 10:11 am

In Moscow RE deals require a psychiatrist
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.seattletimes.com/business/selling-real-estate-in-russia-are-you-crazy/%3famp=1

#83 jess on 01.16.19 at 10:13 am

whistleblower from 2005 ADR’s

from: 2015
https://nypost.com/2015/07/18/banks-are-ripping-off-investors-in-overseas-markets/

And with some 2,500 or more ADRs alone — trillions of dollars riding on depositary receipts — Germinario calls them an anachronism in today’s sophisticated high-speed markets, a throwback to their launch in the 1920s.

“ADRs and GDRs are financial products that offer unrestricted and largely unregulated access to modernized international markets that allow for gross share-trading inefficiencies — and ease of global corruption by the banking source,” Germinario said.

Among Germinario’s catalog of rogue activity:

Depositary Receipts manipulated for money-laundering, tax avoidance, pump-and-dump, bribery and shareholder dilution through naked short-selling regulations.
Depository banks paying public companies sums ranging from $5 million to $90 million to nab accounts, then coming back to them with multimillion-dollar fees for depositary services. Fees are typically “uniform and fixed” across the industry, says Germinario. The banks even dipped into the government’s Troubled Asset Relief Program money to finance their schemes, Germinario says.
 Unpaid taxes: Back in 2005, Germinario and his team went to the SEC and IRS, claiming the depository banks did not pay their proper taxes. He says at least $550 million has since been recovered.”

==
…”In Canada, a report that goes as far back as 2012 from the Financial Transactions and Reports Analysis Centre detailed how Colombian drug cartels launder money through US securities markets using ADRs, citing an ACAMS (Association of Certified Anti-Money Laundering Specialists) publication.”
https://www.financemagnates.com/institutional-forex/regulation/adr-scandal-rumbles-on-for-big-banks/

#84 Stan Brooks on 01.16.19 at 10:28 am

#80 Headhunter on 01.16.19 at 10:00 am

I stand by my 50% hit on housing.

——————————

The security intelligence service said that the economy is strong, our AI and technology is the envy of the world and everyone wants to steal it.

Based on that I would expect considering any negative news on economy as an attempt to undermine our stability that would be replied to with utmost resolution and determination.

There are elections coming and our glorious (smart, wise and sexy) leaders achievements have to be protected as foreign entities want to undermine it.

#85 jess on 01.16.19 at 10:30 am

SEC Charges Two Robo-Advisers With False Disclosures

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
2018-300

Washington D.C., Dec. 21, 2018 —

The Securities and Exchange Commission today instituted settled proceedings against two robo-advisers for making false statements about investment products and publishing misleading advertising. The proceedings are the SEC’s first enforcement actions against robo-advisers, which provide automated, software-based portfolio management services.

An SEC order found that Redwood City, California-based Wealthfront Advisers LLC (formerly known as Wealthfront Inc.), a robo-adviser with over $11 billion in client assets under management, made false statements about a tax-loss harvesting strategy it offered to clients. Wealthfront disclosed to clients employing its tax-loss harvesting strategy that it would monitor all client accounts for any transactions that might trigger a wash sale – which can diminish the benefits of the harvesting strategy – but failed to do so. Over a period of more than three years during which it made this disclosure, wash sales occurred in at least 31 percent of accounts enrolled in Wealthfront’s tax loss harvesting strategy. The SEC’s order also found that Wealthfront improperly re-tweeted prohibited client testimonials, paid bloggers for client referrals without the required disclosure and documentation, and failed to maintain a compliance program reasonably designed to prevent violations of the securities laws….”

https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2018-300

#86 IHCTD9 on 01.16.19 at 10:36 am

#80 Headhunter on 01.16.19 at 10:00 am

I stand by my 50% hit on housing. Too many converging factors all at once are coming down the pipeline.

Anyhow live a little cant take it with ya, enjoy before the bones start creaking and the mind starts to go.
___

I’ve got my popcorn out and sitting on the couch. There seems to be a sentiment among RE sellers that anything is possible, and many are on fishing trips looking for some airhead to to come along.

I recently saw an RE ad for 300+ acres up in the Madoc area. This is pretty much in nowheresville – the land is vacant, marshy, no house or buildings of any kind. Asking price was 3/4 of a million.

Fishing trip 100%, that’s triple or more what it should be, only a moron would pay that much for a swath of useless northern swamp and bush. But, everyone with land to sell evidently believes there are rich morons aplenty.

Maybe there are, hard lessons may have to be learned.

#87 Mattl on 01.16.19 at 10:47 am

What gives in the Okanagan? on 01.15.19 at 8:51 pm
Prices could slide beyond the 17% drop since July and BC Assessment will still jack the assessed value.

What gives is BC Assessed values and the municipalities taking their bs information are putting it to good use to make you feel rich, then taxing your a$$ to the moon.

Don’t worry, the value will go up next year, and the year after that and so on. It is called we need tax revenues. You really think taxes are ever going to drop?

Seeing sales 100k below the so called BC Assessed value right now. That still won’t change your tax bill.

————————————————————–

Yes, assessments will fall. As Garth pointed out Assessments lag. Our tax bill may not change, but assessments will fall for most people in the OK, this will be reflected in 2020 assessments…if RE is truly correcting in the OK, I live and own a home here but don’t follow RE. With money falling out of YVR market it has to correct, at least at the top end. You can still get a decent home in West Kelowna for 450K so I’m not sure there is that much room for a correction at the low end. Vacancy here is ridiculously low.

#88 Renter's Revenge! on 01.16.19 at 10:50 am

#75 Smoking Man on 01.16.19 at 9:15 am
Peek Civilization before the Freeks took over.

https://youtu.be/OAkVDCqVY6w

==============================

That ad makes me nostalgic for a time when it was ok to be a man.

#89 KLNR on 01.16.19 at 11:01 am

LOL @ Britain.

#90 Headhunter on 01.16.19 at 11:18 am

#86 IHCTD9 on 01.16.19 at 10:36 am
I recently saw an RE ad for 300+ acres up in the Madoc area. This is pretty much in nowheresville

——————————————————
Thats nuts but I believe.. if you look at tax arrears sales by county could pick something up like that cheap. Hunt/fish camp thats pretty much it.. cant even grow weed for a profit!

The 3 bigs lake joe, Muskoka, Rosseau.. sales down 27% from last year..

#91 KLNR on 01.16.19 at 11:23 am

@#86 IHCTD9 on 01.16.19 at 10:36 am
#80 Headhunter on 01.16.19 at 10:00 am

I stand by my 50% hit on housing. Too many converging factors all at once are coming down the pipeline.

Anyhow live a little cant take it with ya, enjoy before the bones start creaking and the mind starts to go.
___

I’ve got my popcorn out and sitting on the couch. There seems to be a sentiment among RE sellers that anything is possible, and many are on fishing trips looking for some airhead to to come along.

I recently saw an RE ad for 300+ acres up in the Madoc area. This is pretty much in nowheresville – the land is vacant, marshy, no house or buildings of any kind. Asking price was 3/4 of a million.

Fishing trip 100%, that’s triple or more what it should be, only a moron would pay that much for a swath of useless northern swamp and bush. But, everyone with land to sell evidently believes there are rich morons aplenty.

Maybe there are, hard lessons may have to be learned.
______________________________________

I was looking into getting a rural property with small acreage few hours out of Toronto. Blew my mind how expensive it was for a dilapidated farm house and 10-20 acres

#92 Fish on 01.16.19 at 11:31 am

OPINION
There will be no such thing as painless national pharmacare

Major planks usually cost major dollars. Pharmacare will be no exception

Aaron Wudrick · for CBC News · Posted: Oct 07, 2018 4:00 AM ET | Last Updated: October 7, 2018

https://www.cbc.ca/news/opinion/pharmacare-report-1.4852503

#93 epat on 01.16.19 at 11:45 am

Trumpocalypse2019

As you drift in between consciousness and psychosis it would be useful to know that Trump will probably win election again in 2020.

By then Trudeau will have taxed you into oblivion, your municipal governments will have taken your house for tax sale, and your Provincial government will have janitors making 150K a year plus 10 weeks holidays…

So tell us which would you have?

A psycho you know is psycho who every enemy fears and who happened to rip the socialists a new one after 20 years of creeping Socialism?

Or be taken to wood shed by a twerp who is hellbent on turning your country into a Venezuelan or Cuban enclave?

I think I know which.

BTW instead of reading Gloebandmail.com and their Liberal Masters diarhea – read a conservative US newspaper.

I can tell you one thing….

Trump’s appeal is based on the US populace’s hatred of Socialism and its destruction of their society…..

Trump will win in a landslide and Hollywood will move to Toronto……

But again its all part of the master strategy of the taxpayers to rid the US of Social Justice Warriors…

Since Canada is a safe haven for them you will enjoy your son’s or nephew’s conversion into a simpering wimp who is told that is masculinty is evil…..

Corner hte market on dresses since all kids of both sexes will them in the next decade

#94 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.16.19 at 12:14 pm

@#73 Howard
“Elizabeth May is not the Prime Minister of the UK.”
+++++
Hahahahaha
Good one.
Hadnt had my coffee yet
Ya see what a crappy job Theresa May is doing”
:)

#95 LivinLarge on 01.16.19 at 1:07 pm

“I recently saw an RE ad for 300+ acres up in the Madoc area. This is pretty much in nowheresville – the land is vacant, marshy, no house or buildings of any kind. Asking price was 3/4 of a million.” I know Madoc and Marmora area very well. Parents had a cottage on Moira lake for 45 years and parents from Tweed and Bellville.

Surprised it is swampy, that area is 5 inches of soil over solid limestone. Sweet corn grows and dairy cattle but not much else. Nice quiet lake for a cottage especially the lower lake but 300 acres too much to subdivide to cottages…very easy access from the 401 though.

#96 Brett in Calgary on 01.16.19 at 1:12 pm

LOL – fear sells and housing is safe, classic. No mention of being diversified in your investments…

—————————————————–
#21 acdel on 01.15.19 at 7:41 pm
Not sure what to make of this headline?

https://calgaryherald.com/investing/youve-got-nowhere-to-hide-rising-interest-rates-wreak-havoc-on-fixed-income-etfs/wcm/15183563-230a-4141-8ddc-429aa8074679

Could not find the link but I bet it was a real estate backed article that proclaimed that Calgary house values rose 5%; I just shook me head, what a complete lie.

#97 Ogopogo on 01.16.19 at 1:14 pm

#13 Heather Hallam on 01.15.19 at 6:13 pm
I live in the Okanagan. Assessment increased by 7%. So, what happened?

Seven months old. – Garth

Yeah, good luck with that, Heather:

“Kelowna homes may not be worth as much as newly delivered assessment notices suggest.

The assessments, now being mailed to homeowners across B.C. and already available online, are based on a market valuation done on July 1, 2018.

However, that was near the peak of a long run-up in house prices. The price of a typical single-family Kelowna home has fallen 17 per cent since then, according to sales figures from the Okanagan Mainline Real Estate Board.

So homeowners may get a false sense of their property’s value, and thus their overall net worth, if they go only by the valuation shown on their notice from BC Assessment.”

http://www.kelownadailycourier.ca/news/article_d02f6a9c-0ee6-11e9-baff-eb38f80acd41.html

#98 IHCTD9 on 01.16.19 at 1:15 pm

#91 KLNR on 01.16.19 at 11:23 am

I was looking into getting a rural property with small acreage few hours out of Toronto. Blew my mind how expensive it was for a dilapidated farm house and 10-20 acres.
_____

I fancied similar – more like a cottage/cabin on a lake a couple hours north, and an acre or two joined to crown land. Just not worth the asking price for occasional use.

I’ll just rent one when the urge strikes…

#99 Pelé on 01.16.19 at 1:15 pm

Owning a 2bd investment condo in downtown Toronto, I think now is time to sell. Probably have been told here a million times already.
Now, my question is, should I wait out with that money to buy in Vancouver if the market really tank? and if it doesn’t tank next year just invest that in a balanced portfolio?

Note: this money is 35% of my total portfolio. As the other 65% is already invested in the market in multiple ETFs. (so I am not saying I am, or will go, 100% in real estate)

#100 Rifles on 01.16.19 at 1:33 pm

Watch Whistler, BC. Second home ground zero

Still masses of properties of average quality trading at $1000/sq ft. One of the largest appreciation rates of any market, condos +24% assessment – I know, dated data.

#101 Fish on 01.16.19 at 2:18 pm

Economics Publications What’s New Housing News Flash (January 15, 2019)

https://www.scotiabank.com/ca/en/about/global-economics/economics-publications.html

Latest Report: Canada’s housing market ended 2018 on a weak note  January 2019 http://www.rbc.com/economics/latest-reports/

#102 BillyBob on 01.16.19 at 2:24 pm

I am guessing all of the handwringing over the US and UK is due to everything being so peachy-keen in Canada, is that it? lol

It IS amusing how much of the Canadian identity is defined by this insecure need to measure oneself against others. I’ve travelled the world and never really seen any other country’s populace do the same.

But, we expats do thank you for once again extending us the chance to vote. It’ll be très satisfying to cast one for ABJ*.

Also thank you for paying your taxes so we have decent healthcare when we decide to come back for some free stuff. :-)

* Anyone But Justin

#103 Smartalox on 01.16.19 at 2:58 pm

Here’s another prediction for 2019:

January 2019 will bring record listings for detached houses in the Greater Vancouver area.

I track the monthly stats for detached listings from the REBGV, and the number of listings that were removed in December was massive (and we know that they weren’t sold)

City Change in # of detached listings
Burnaby -42%
Coquitlam -53%
Delta -67%
Maple Ridge -60%
New West -48%
N. Van -67%
Poco -58%
PoMoody -70%
Richmond -53%
Van East -59%
Van West -47%
West Van -52%
Overall -55%

IF all of these listings that were removed in Dec are re-listed in January (a pattern that has been prevalent every 3 months in 2018) PLUS any new listings in these areas, the glut of listings in the spring market will be massive.

If that inventory doesn’t move in the first 3 months, there’ll be plenty of price drops by July.

#104 r1200c on 01.16.19 at 3:06 pm

This Andrew Scheer re-tweet from Chantal Heber is gold:
https://twitter.com/ChantalHbert/status/1085265416342196229

#105 Smoking Man on 01.16.19 at 3:07 pm

Renter’s Revenge! on 01.16.19 at 10:50 am
#75 Smoking Man on 01.16.19 at 9:15 am
Peek Civilization before the Freeks took over.

https://youtu.be/OAkVDCqVY6w

==============================

That ad makes me nostalgic for a time when it was ok to be a man.
…..

It’s still ok. You just bigger balls and thick skin.

From back in the day

” Sticks and stones will break my bones but names will never hurt me “

#106 45north on 01.16.19 at 3:15 pm

IHCTD9: I recently saw an RE ad for 300+ acres up in the Madoc area. This is pretty much in nowheresville – the land is vacant, marshy, no house or buildings of any kind. Asking price was 3/4 of a million.

I’ve been up and down Highway 7 for 40 years. There’s a new Tim Hortons at Madoc which is doing well but the little motels and restaurants are gone.

You say the land is marshy. That’s not good.

#107 Fish on 01.16.19 at 3:28 pm

Ontario Economic Update
DOWNLOAD PDF
As of January 11, 2019

https://www.fin.gov.on.ca/en/economy/ecupdates/update.html

#108 IHCTD9 on 01.16.19 at 3:33 pm

#95 LivinLarge on 01.16.19 at 1:07 pm

I know Madoc and Marmora area very well. Parents had a cottage on Moira lake for 45 years and parents from Tweed and Bellville.

Surprised it is swampy, that area is 5 inches of soil over solid limestone. Sweet corn grows and dairy cattle but not much else. Nice quiet lake for a cottage especially the lower lake but 300 acres too much to subdivide to cottages…very easy access from the 401 though.

____

I pass thru both these towns quite a bit. Was just by Madoc this past Sunday, some crazy guys had ice huts out there on Miora lake, had to have been pretty thin ice.

This property had the typical marsh areas surrounding dying ponds/small lakes that are in the bog stage with a little creek running thru the middle. Easy to see on Google Earth where these areas are.

This land is fairly close to the Timmies on #7 – I’m not sure what could make it worth nearly a Mil other than the areas surrounding the Timmies, that small plaza just to the North, and the OPP station to the West might suddenly get so built up that a huge demand would be placed on adjacent RE.

This obviously won’t happen anytime soon. The only development there since that Timmies was built, is the McDonalds and that little plaza – and it took a couple decades to get those.

Buddy is on a fishing trip. I’ve seen it before – and it usually starts with some other dude in the area getting some unexpected insane amount for his own land shortly beforehand. Every then has a line in the water before too long.

#109 James on 01.16.19 at 3:46 pm

#105 Smoking Man on 01.16.19 at 3:07 pm
Renter’s Revenge! on 01.16.19 at 10:50 am
#75 Smoking Man on 01.16.19 at 9:15 am
Peek Civilization before the Freeks took over.
https://youtu.be/OAkVDCqVY6w
==============================
That ad makes me nostalgic for a time when it was ok to be a man.
…..
It’s still ok. You just bigger balls and thick skin.
From back in the day
” Sticks and stones will break my bones but names will never hurt me “
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Well I see that you’re still not taking the ESL course old man!
“Want to order some hamberders.” You must have attended the same school as your mentor.

https://www.indy100.com/article/trump-twitter-spelling-errors-grammar-mistakes-typos-8430166

BTW My whole family got the biggest laughs over the holidays from your Periscope streamed casts. You should be in show business old man.

#110 Mattl on 01.16.19 at 4:02 pm

#97 Ogopogo on 01.16.19 at 1:14 pm
#13 Heather Hallam on 01.15.19 at 6:13 pm
I live in the Okanagan. Assessment increased by 7%. So, what happened?

Seven months old. – Garth

Yeah, good luck with that, Heather:

“Kelowna homes may not be worth as much as newly delivered assessment notices suggest.

The assessments, now being mailed to homeowners across B.C. and already available online, are based on a market valuation done on July 1, 2018.

However, that was near the peak of a long run-up in house prices. The price of a typical single-family Kelowna home has fallen 17 per cent since then, according to sales figures from the Okanagan Mainline Real Estate Board.

So homeowners may get a false sense of their property’s value, and thus their overall net worth, if they go only by the valuation shown on their notice from BC Assessment.”

http://www.kelownadailycourier.ca/news/article_d02f6a9c-0ee6-11e9-baff-eb38f80acd41.html

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Year over year is the only way to judge RE sale prices. Anyone that is running July to December does not understand RE, and really shouldn’t be commenting on it. Particularly acute in the Okanagan….OK RE swings 10% due to seasonality, every year. Spring/Summer peak, Winter dead nothing selling.

I have no doubt that OK homes prices are going down, and that might have already started, but no way in hell is anyone buying homes in Kelowna at 17% discount on the Jan 2017 price. In fact median Dec to Dec is up 80bps.

If anyone is interested in what is actually going on in Kelowna for residential here is the line for December YOY.

Average:

Residential 2018 $668,199 2017 $693,646 DOWN -3.67%

Median 2018 $635,000 2018 $629,900 UP 0.81%

DOM 74 56 31.40%

Hardly a bloodbath so far, although the DOM would concern me if I had to sell a home. I think we see a -10% correction this year, but for the love of god if you guys want to understand RE prices you have to account for seasonality and report YOY not MOM or decline from peak.

#111 Tater on 01.16.19 at 4:10 pm

#93 epat on 01.16.19 at 11:45 am
Trumpocalypse2019

As you drift in between consciousness and psychosis it would be useful to know that Trump will probably win election again in 2020.

By then Trudeau will have taxed you into oblivion, your municipal governments will have taken your house for tax sale, and your Provincial government will have janitors making 150K a year plus 10 weeks holidays…

So tell us which would you have?

A psycho you know is psycho who every enemy fears and who happened to rip the socialists a new one after 20 years of creeping Socialism?

Or be taken to wood shed by a twerp who is hellbent on turning your country into a Venezuelan or Cuban enclave?

I think I know which.

BTW instead of reading Gloebandmail.com and their Liberal Masters diarhea – read a conservative US newspaper.

I can tell you one thing….

Trump’s appeal is based on the US populace’s hatred of Socialism and its destruction of their society…..

Trump will win in a landslide and Hollywood will move to Toronto……

But again its all part of the master strategy of the taxpayers to rid the US of Social Justice Warriors…

Since Canada is a safe haven for them you will enjoy your son’s or nephew’s conversion into a simpering wimp who is told that is masculinty is evil…..

Corner hte market on dresses since all kids of both sexes will them in the next decade
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This well reasoned argument is completely undone by the fact that the popular vote went for Clinton.

#112 Nancy Vieira on 01.17.19 at 12:52 am

Wow, we must still be in a bubble over here in palm tree land….yes real estate is different today than a year ago. Now you have time to look and research before buying in a rush. Lots of good choices left over from the 2018 slow down winter market, with new ones coming on priced for today. Sellers are still making good on their investments and buyers are still getting good dollar value for their new home purchase. Solid market for buying or selling. There has been a good even market for new construction with most homes sold before completion. Have not seen the wild prices as there was in larger metro areas. Slow and steady as she goes. We live in paradise with a healthy community supported by healthy happy families and tons of young folks and lots of old folks to look after them. With over 25 years of watching and working the real estate dream I know that the buyers today will not regret getting into the market now. Just do it. Take your time and look around for a home you will live in for a long time. Squirrel your money away by paying down the mortgage on your home. Most of all , do not extend yourself, enjoy life. N