Decisions

DOUG By Guest Blogger Doug Rowat

 

Last year, I dropped almost three grand on a high-end Mathew Barzal rookie card, the star forward of the New York Islanders. Unfortunately for me, over the summer of 2018, his teammate, and even bigger star, John Tavares was traded away to the Toronto Maple Leafs and Barzal, as of this writing, is a minus five and sits a dismal 57th place in overall league scoring. As a team, the Islanders have also struggled this season, adjusting not only to the absence of Tavares but also to a new head coach, and are currently out of a playoff spot. So, my rookie card purchase was a poor investment decision.

Or was it? When I made the purchase, Barzal was about to win the NHL rookie-of-the-year award by a landslide (past recent winners have included superstars Auston Matthews, Nathan Mackinnon, Evgeni Malkin and Alexander Ovechkin who all have much more valuable rookie cards), he had finished just outside of the top-10 in scoring (with almost as many points as some guy named Crosby), he was explosive, frequently recording five-point games (a true rarity in today’s NHL), he was young (only 21) and he was Canadian (North American players, for whatever reason, attract the most investor interest). In other words, it was the correct decision to buy the card, but simply the wrong result the following season.

The difference between the right decision and a poor result is an important distinction and is something that former professional poker player Annie Duke emphasizes in her excellent new book, Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts. To highlight this distinction, Duke examines Seattle Seahawks coach Pete Carroll’s much-criticized decision during the 2015 Super Bowl to call for a pass play at the New England Patriots’ one-yard line instead of giving the ball to star running back Marshawn Lynch. Of course, the pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. At the time, it was labelled, unequivocally, the worst play call in Super Bowl history. But objective analysis suggests that it was likely the correct decision. Passes are almost never intercepted that close to the end zone, a pass would have had the advantage of being unexpected and even an incomplete pass would have used little time (there were only 26 seconds remaining) and still left the opportunity for perhaps two more running plays. Carroll, to his credit, stuck by his decision and stated flatly that only the result was bad, not the decision.

Investors should apply Duke’s advice to their own portfolio decisions. For example, adding to a portfolio, particularly on market weakness, is a sound strategy. But it’s entirely possible that at the moment you invest the money the market will drop. This is a bad result, but the decision to add funds was correct. After all, markets eventually move higher. Look at the S&P 500 chart below. Overall, adding consistently to such a market is the right decision, but the immediate result of new contributions won’t be favourable in every instance.

S&P 500 – 30 years

Source: Bloomberg. Annualized total return (including dividends) = 9.96%

A process must also be applied to decision making. Investors should 1) analyze objectively; 2) though sometimes difficult, assign probabilities as to the likelihood of their decisions being correct (which brings awareness of the chances that they will be incorrect); and 3) forgive themselves if the decision doesn’t result in a positive outcome. This last point is particularly important because if investors can’t forgive themselves then they are much more likely to conclude that the outcome was purely reflective of the quality of their decision, which is not always the case.

Incidentally, I tend to conduct further research as I read, which is what I did with Thinking in Bets. It turns out that Duke is not well respected by the poker community and may have engaged in unethical behaviour in the past. A recent New Yorker article reveals some of the shadier details of her history. So, I had more decisions to make: 1) what was the likelihood that these allegations were true and 2) would the allegations change the quality of her arguments and hence the value of her advice? I decided: 1) likely they were true, but 2) the advice stood on its own merits.

Another useful recommendation from Duke’s book: avoid emotional, extreme conclusions. For example, Democrats are always right and Republicans always wrong. In the context of Duke, the extreme conclusion would have been to decide that, because she might have been unethical in the past, nothing in her book had value. If I’d drawn such a conclusion, I would have stopped reading, thrown the book in the garbage, and missed out on further great advice.

Similarly, avoid emotion-based, extreme decision-making with your investments as well. For instance, consider this conclusion: markets have corrected significantly—this virtually always leads to a full-fledged bear market. While it might feel this way in the moment, such a determination is simply availability bias at work: my present is painful, so my future is more likely to be painful as well. This is one reason why people who have recently witnessed a car accident are more likely to think that they will themselves be involved in one in the future. Of course, witnessing a car accident has zero bearing on future probabilities. And, the truth is, most market corrections don’t lead to bear markets. Here’s the proof:

Number of S&P 500 corrections and bear markets since 1945: corrections very seldom lead to bear markets

Source: RBC, Turner Investments

So, assess your decisions objectively and don’t let the results (good or bad) be the sole barometer of their correctness. Further, don’t ever draw conclusions assuming absolute accuracy. Every decision only has a probability of being right. And an emotion-driven, extreme position (corrections always result in bear markets) will simply lower probabilities.

Finally, it’s also permissible to occasionally bemoan our bad luck. We all need to vent. Even though I recognize that I made the correct decision with my Barzal rookie card purchase, it still hurts to think that the Tavares trade may turn my three-grand rookie card into a very expensive beer coaster.

Doug Rowat, FCSI® is Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments and Senior Vice President, Private Client Group, Raymond James Ltd.

 

94 comments ↓

#1 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.12.19 at 1:46 pm

you drink beer?

#2 Sideshow Rob on 01.12.19 at 1:53 pm

Hmmm. An actual fork in the road. Never thought I would see the day.

Now from yesterday…
“Moral: never, ever read the comments section. If you do, like me, wear rubber.”
Actually I really enjoy the comments section of this blog. There is much value to be gleaned from it. Sure there are some nut jobs lurking but they are everywhere in life. There are also some highly intelligent posters who think deeply on all things economic. If you like getting your own assumptions and bias’ challenged, this is a good place to be. Quite often posters come up with ideas I had not considered. There is gold in the steerage section if you look for it!

#3 Barbie Doll Collection on 01.12.19 at 2:09 pm

Your fortunate not to have invested into them. The height of the market in the very late 1990’s was going ballistic. My cousin had #1 and #2 with the original box in mint condition. I told her to sell for $13,000 USD, and she said no because could only go higher, so what could go wrong? In today’s market they are selling for next to nothing.

#4 50 YEARS OF MAPLE LEAF INCOMPETENCE! on 01.12.19 at 2:23 pm

Doug, at least you learned how the Make Believes crush the dreams of everyone. You made a good choice not buying a card for one of their pathetic players!

Hey Toronturds! Your teams all suck and your gullible fans are pitiful, but your city is off to a record start for 2019!

Yep, 3 murders in only 11 days. On track for 100+ Homicides in 2019! A new record!

Oh, wait…BREAKING NEWS!!

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/man-dead-shooting-dundalk-antrim-homicide-1.4976061

https://torontosun.com/news/local-news/bullets-fly-in-t-o-one-man-dead-two-injured-in-three-separate-shootings

Now it’s 4 Homicides!! Toronto’s on track for 130 murders in 2019! Wow!!! That place knows how to achieve!

(And that doesn’t even include all the shooting and stabbing victims who are still in hospital this week. Stay tuned folks…..)

Yaaayy! The GTA is such a warm and livable place, so many friendly people, everyone should borrow from their parents to “invest” in a condo or slanty semi there. Don’t worry about the cost Make Believes fans – your house prices always go up, just like your murder rate!

#5 Doug don’t listen to garth on 01.12.19 at 2:32 pm

Hey Doug don’t u listen to Garth he said no stocks! U bought a lousy pos card, u might as well put 3k into a pathetic gold stock, listen to the old man and u may learn

#6 Capt. Serious on 01.12.19 at 2:33 pm

This is one of my favourite topics. The process is the only thing you can control. You can’t control the outcomes. You can “know” with some probability that there is an equity risk premium, and over long periods of time you are likely to earn it, and that stocks usually beat bonds over long time periods. You can know that when equity prices fall future returns are likely to be higher. However, you also know that there can be long periods of low returns. Sticking with the process is the challenge, and the long term can be very long indeed.

#7 Massimo on 01.12.19 at 2:34 pm

Wow that looks like a massive bubble in the chart. Also, it’s not the quantity of bear markets it’s the size of the drops.

Enjoy your day and your rookie card! I on the other hand purchased them Mattel thundercats action figures.

#8 Gravy Train on 01.12.19 at 2:54 pm

But objective analysis suggests that it was likely the correct decision. Passes are almost never intercepted that close to the end zone, a pass would have had the advantage of being unexpected and even an incomplete pass would have used little time (there were only 26 seconds remaining) and still left the opportunity for perhaps two more running plays. — Doug Rowat

Here are a couple of books, Doug, that elaborate on your ideas:
• Levitt, Steven D., and Stephen J. Dubner. 2014. Think Like a Freak. HarperCollins Canada.
• Ellenberg, Jordan. 2014. How Not To Be Wrong: The Power of Mathematical Thinking. Penguin Group USA.

#9 Sammy on 01.12.19 at 3:06 pm

Time has taught me to ignore noise . Professional money managers are largely clueless –2018 being yet another reminder

#10 Adele on 01.12.19 at 3:09 pm

Maybe if you don’t know the difference between a trade and a UFA signing you shouldn’t invest in hockey memorabilia?

#11 Figmund Sreud on 01.12.19 at 3:10 pm

…assess your decisions objectively and don’t let the results (good or bad) be the sole barometer of their correctness. Further, don’t ever draw conclusions assuming absolute accuracy. Every decision only has a probability of being right. And an emotion-driven, extreme position (corrections always result in bear markets) will simply lower probabilities.
________________________________

Hear! … Hear, hear, hear! *)

Best,

F.S. – Calgary, Alberta.

*) It’s an expression used as a short, repeated form of Hear him. The phrase hear him, hear him! was used in the House of Commons in the late 17th century, and was reduced to hear!or hear, hear, hear!, … oh, about a century later.

#12 For those about to flop... on 01.12.19 at 3:28 pm

CONFIRMED PINK SNOW.

May the gods of real estate bless b.c assessment.

Of all the heavy losses I am waiting to show you ,they decided this minor skirmish was fit to see the light of day.

The details…

20-2133 St Georges Avenue,North Vancouver.

Paid 729k July 2016

Sold 725k November 2018

Originally asking 865k

Assessment 869k

So I guess the true value of this one is that someone took a loss in the under 750k condo bracket.

Only 40k but it most likely was supposed to be a money spinner, but it was themselves that believed the spin..

M44BC

https://www.rew.ca/insights/18138/20-2133-st-georges-avenue-north-vancouver-bc

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDAyN1hVVQ==

#13 espressobob on 01.12.19 at 3:29 pm

A good high proof bottle of burboun tends to be helpful when buying on the Downside. Picking the bottom of any asset class proves impossible.

#14 Stan Brooks on 01.12.19 at 3:33 pm

Buying that card was a decision based on the information available and your risk appetite, with perceived considerable potential gains as to justify the risk, a decision based mostly on your gut feelings and some basic risk/reward analysis.

With professional sport being highly unpredictable (except LeBron James) such bets are pure gamble.

No different than betting on red in Vegas, except you wait longer for the outcome with the card.

There is no certainty in life, in it as in poker usually the most probable winners are whoever is best in:
– measuring and assessing the risk, so good with math.
– taking calculated risk based on the information available and past experience in certain situations/with certain opponents,.
– coming with the logical strategy and sticking to it, ignoring emotions and knowing your limits

Karma is a bitch/see Michael Shumacher but probability normally works for the least emotional, but intuitive people.

To calculate correctly the risks, you would need to get rid of the informational noise and emotions, identify clearly the facts, apply logic and common sense.

99.9 % of the people can’t do it when playing with real stuff, i.e. money.

BTW my silverware coffee set is actually more expensive than your beer mat, uncles you of course decide to buy a few more, however I believe mine will pay out better in long run. /bias off.

#15 Barb on 01.12.19 at 4:01 pm

Doug, great explanation of the finer points of decision-making.

I especially like the justification “…only the result was bad, not the decision”.

But your priorities! That’s a one Dollar fork from the bargain store. Likely contains lead. From China.

#16 Shawn Allen on 01.12.19 at 4:06 pm

That S&P 500 chart is misleading

#7 Massimo on 01.12.19 at 2:34 pm
Wow that looks like a massive bubble in the chart.

*******************************
That chart can easily mislead because it is not a log chart. A trend in something that grows exponentially, which the the S&P 500 does due to the partial retention of earnings among other reasons can only be properly viewed on a log scale. In addition the chart axis does not start at zero which can also very much exaggerate the growth.

S&P 500 may or may not be in a bubble but looking at that particular chart is not a good way to judge.

#17 Hockey Memorabilia on 01.12.19 at 4:07 pm

#10 Adele – I met Maurice Richard at a dinner event and took along a brand new hockey stick which he signed years ago. One day left from Toronto to go back to see my parents for a weekend. Asked my dad where is my hockey stick, and he gave it to some kid to play hockey with down the street – gone!

#18 Yukon Elvis on 01.12.19 at 4:28 pm

You have way too much money. Just think of all the starving and diseased kids in Africa and what 3k could do for them.

#19 Doug Rowat on 01.12.19 at 4:32 pm

#10 Adele on 01.12.19 at 3:09 pm

Maybe if you don’t know the difference between a trade and a UFA signing you shouldn’t invest in hockey memorabilia?

Thank you, correct. And thanks for saving me in high school. I was a total nerd, but the smart-ass pedants? They always got beaten up first.

–Doug

#20 David McDonald on 01.12.19 at 4:38 pm

I like that you carefully differentiate gambling from betting. Betting is an informed decision based on partial information that skews the distribution of outcomes to one’s advantage. Of course the outcome can still be bad even when the bet was reasonable.

#21 young & foolish on 01.12.19 at 4:53 pm

Hmmm … so let’s see if I got this right …. since 2008 the federal banks have flooded the private banks with practically free money …. which they in turn lent out to specuvestors of all kinds, pushing up asset prices to heady levels. Now, the reverse is happening (interest rates rising, balance sheets being reduced) but we are to expect asset values not to be negatively impacted?

Yup, correct decisions can be a challenge, especially if a clear understanding of how modern economies are structured is lacking. For sure I am no expert, but I have noticed private debt has risen dramatically. Wondering about all that “growth”!

#22 Interstellar Old Yeller on 01.12.19 at 5:06 pm

Great post, Doug, thanks! Helpful because I do think people often feel outcomes reflect the quality of their decisions (even if made carefully and thoughtfully), when life is often more complicated than that.

Hope you have a great weekend!

#23 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.12.19 at 5:17 pm

@#15 Barb
“That’s a one Dollar fork from the bargain store. Likely contains lead. From China.”
++++

They’re just returning the lead from the toxic car batteries we sent them. One fork at a time.
Fair is fair.

#24 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.12.19 at 5:25 pm

@#120 Don
Re : your friend…
“Doesn’t my dad realize how his is putting us out and why doesn’t he sell his other land properties as he is single and can move much easier”
+++++

Another greedy Boomer boots a fledgling Millenial from the nest….oh the inhumanity of it all….and to top it all off…when we Boomers get too old to ‘contribute”….due to Global warming, there wont be any iceflows to abandon us on for the polar bears to feast upon.

#25 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.12.19 at 5:32 pm

@#14 Stan Brooks
“BTW my silverware coffee set is actually more expensive than your beer mat….”
+++++

WHO owns a silver coffee set nowadays?
Unless???????
Stan.
Does the Queen take cream and sugar with her coffee?

#26 Maybe we can help too on 01.12.19 at 5:32 pm

Thank you Garth, Doug, and Mr. Influenza for all that you do week in and week out. Maybe a bit off topic, but I just read that the Canadian air traffic controllers are buying pizzas for their American counterparts during the US government shutdown, as the Americans are working without pay. I am proud of them for doing so, and I would like to see our government offer some assistance to the US government employees who, through no fault of their own, are experiencing financial hardship. As a country, Canada sends aid to other countries, so why not help out our neighbors to the South?

#27 Doug Rowat on 01.12.19 at 5:32 pm

#19 David McDonald on 01.12.19 at 4:38 pm

I like that you carefully differentiate gambling from betting. Betting is an informed decision based on partial information that skews the distribution of outcomes to one’s advantage.

Correct. As Duke highlights, poker is a game of skill, but more similar to real life than, say, chess, in that luck plays a role in outcomes. Bad luck doesn’t affect Magnus Carlsen, but it does Stu Ungar (and in Stu’s case, not just at the poker table).

–Doug

#28 Blackdog on 01.12.19 at 5:57 pm

@#1 re: “you drink beer?”,
you get on an elevator after you drink beer?

#29 Stan Brooks on 01.12.19 at 6:30 pm

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-12/are-soaring-restaurant-prices-sign-inflation-much-higher-data-suggest

If we re-compute a purchasing power CPI, de-sensationalize contrarian reporting, and remain disinterested with modern economic policies, we arrive at a 7-9% practical CPI rate over the past decade

#30 Tony on 01.12.19 at 6:34 pm

A big question is will the next stock market crash eclipse the ’29 crash in duration and depth?

#31 Stan Brooks on 01.12.19 at 6:36 pm

How government lies about inflation:

https://globalnews.ca/news/3478535/why-is-canadas-inflation-rate-so-low-when-life-is-so-expensive/

#32 akashic record on 01.12.19 at 7:04 pm

Should have bought the high-end rookie card ETF and enjoy the historical average.

#33 realistic on 01.12.19 at 7:04 pm

by your own data, a large bear market occurs every 7-8 years
how do you know this isnt one of those? with interest rates rising, p/e ratios should compress and stock prices at best should go nowhere, at worse, decline even from here. my sense is your plan is to buy stocks, keep buying and hope for the best. which isnt much of a strategy.

why not exit your stock holdings when the technicals call for it. ? and re-enter again when the situation improves. you miss out on large declines like 2000-2002 and 2008-9.. and stay in for the gains

#34 Response to Toronto Hater on 01.12.19 at 7:18 pm

#4 Toronto Hater

That this blog would allow such a vile poster as Toronto Hater to post such diatribes against Canada’s largest city and North America’s third largest is quite pathetic. You are a moron, loser and piece of garbage all rolled into one. A sad sack of putrid crap masquerading as a human being. Toronto has the number one NBA team, the 2nd best hockey team in the standings, 2 time World Series champions, a crime rate for a major metropolis that is lower than about every American city over 300,000. Go crawl back under your rock you useless slime slinking across the face of the earth and calling yourself a human being.

#35 WUL on 01.12.19 at 7:23 pm

Doug, I am saving this post. Thank you. This discussion on decision making applies to my assessment of the prospects on civil trials in my practice. Also gives nice language I can use to explain trial results when I phone the client to advise of the result the trial justice delivered. Beats my old opening line of “Are you sitting down?”. Appreciated.

#36 Stan Brooks, A Lifetime of Incompetence on 01.12.19 at 7:25 pm

Stanley, come on now, who are you fooling in pretending to post under another pseudonym and attacking Toronto? It must be painful to look over your life and see nothing but a lifetime of incompetence, culminating in you posting vile diatribes against Canada’s largest metropolis. It must really rankle you to see what home values in Toronto are. Why the hatred Stanley, come now, let us know…

#37 Terrie Rolph on 01.12.19 at 7:43 pm

This article explaining some of Annie Duke’s thinking helped me change mine.
http://nautil.us/issue/55/trust/the-resulting-fallacy-is-ruining-your-decisions

#38 Popeye the Sailor Man on 01.12.19 at 7:53 pm

In late 2005 we sold a rental in the Victoria area, we made money but could of made more if we held on longer. I have no regrets because we made the right decision at the time. Once a long term tenet left we had to renovate, it ate 85%of our contingency fund.
At the time a second property had to have at least 20% down and financed for 25years. We did look for another investment property but none could carry themselves. We did not know the next year due it falling housing sales things would be propped up buy the government. Mortgages went from 25y to 30 then upto 40, CMHC later allowed funding a second property at 5% down, and people were using cashback for even lower. Also a trend of HELOC lones allowed intrest only payments. This easy credit ballooned values. On reflection our decision was sound, but the results were we left money on the table.

The net from the sale was placed on our primary residence, so now our mortgage is the size of a normal car payment. We are not in a hurry paying it off due to investments. At 50 our balance of the rule of 90 is on track if not better.

#39 I’m stupid on 01.12.19 at 8:25 pm

#14 Stan Brooks

There is no certainty in life, in it as in poker usually the most probable winners are whoever is best in:
– measuring and assessing the risk, so good with math.
– taking calculated risk based on the information available and past experience in certain situations/with certain opponents,.
– coming with the logical strategy and sticking to it,
ignoring emotions and knowing your limits

Having played Poker for over 15 years, including playing WSOP and a few WPT events, I can tell you that nothing beats luck. You can do all the math you want, believe me I’ve studied the game but you can’t get around the disadvantage of the rake. In the long term you can’t win.

Think of poker as a game of zero. 10 players playing, the odds of you winning a hand are 1 in 10. If all else is equal you should break even a net of zero. But the house always takes a rake, I think it’s usually 5% the wsop I think is 6% might be wrong. But the point is that the house always gets a cut. As a player you need to turn a zero sum game and beat the rake. It not an easy feat in the long term.

Let’s look at card play; the best starting hand in Hold’em is poket aces, the worst is 7-2 off suit.

Here’s the thing the payout on winning with pocket Aces is way lower than wining with 7-2 off suit. The odds of winning with pocket aces are higher but the payout is lower. The loses are also higher when you loose with pocket aces. The net is zero.

Let’s look at 7-2 off suit. The odds of winning with 7-2 off suit is the lowest put the payouts are usually the highest. While the losses are smaller. Net effect zero. It’s similar to adding Alpha in stocks, highly unlikely.

One thing remains a constant, the house always takes their rake. The moral is play poker for fun but don’t think you’ll become a professional unless you’re lucky. I haven’t played since the 2013 WSOP.

#40 Nonplused on 01.12.19 at 8:33 pm

I’ve never understood trading cards. How can a piece of thin cardboard with a photo on it garner $3,000? How do you know it isn’t a fake? Why is it even legitimate in the first place? Scarcity must be a factor so the company printing it must only make so many, but what stops other companies from offering similar products?

The same sort of trend exists in Pokemon and Yugioh cards. “Classic” cards go up in value. But at least when you buy them for your kids they are $7 for 30 of them and they can play a game.

So I don’t get it. I don’t even really get “collector” comic books. I suppose a mint condition original print copy of the original “Super Man #1” is a collectors item and rare so it should be worth a lot of money. But it wasn’t on day one. A show room condition ’67 Mustang with all original parts is worth more than a brand new Mustang even though it only cost $4,000 back in the day. I get that. They are rare and it is easy to confirm it is authentic. But a piece of cardboard with a picture on it? It must be signed or something.

I can also understand original art. Owning an original Picasso is something only a limited number of people can do. But $50,000,000 dollars???? How can people who are so dumb have so much money???? Most of the paintings I have in my house were hand painted by the original artist, but this is me buying something I liked from the person who created it at a craft sale for maybe $500, not some $50,000,000!!! Even $500 seems outrageous until you consider it probably took at least 20 hours to make the painting, so it’s only $25/h for a talent I don’t have. A lot cheaper than my plumber.

Anyway I always thought it was good advice not to invest in things you don’t understand so I’m not going to be buying any trading cards.

As to the rest of the article, yes I agree it is the best approach to do the right thing, even though the outcome cannot be guaranteed on each individual decision or trial. Life is like that. “Best laid plans of mice and men” as they say. But the goal is to maximize overall success not to win every game. If you coach youth sports and actually read the literature it’s hard to miss the current trend: “Stop trying to win the game and instead develop your players into winners!” The idea is that it does the players no good if you focus all your efforts on winning the current game at the expense of long term player development. There are times when that has to go out the window of course, the league championship game or professional sports, then you lay it all on the line, but for most of your coaching career you’ll do better in the long run if you focus on developing the players and take the wins when they come. It also develops better kids as they learn that losing a game isn’t the end of the world and nobody has the right to be mad at them just because the other kids, who have also been training hard, had the better day. After all, the other team is playing to win too. We are all playing to win, but you aren’t going to win every day.

Jordan Peterson has a video on a similar topic, where he (I am paraphrasing heavily) describes it as to be successful, you have to develop traits and behaviors designed to win a set of competitions or interactions, not just one. It’s a pretty deep idea actually, but let’s go back to sports. You might get your kid’s team to win one game by teaching them to cheat, but nobody respects a cheater so not long into the season all the other teams and the refs are ready for you and your band of mislead psychopaths. You don’t get to win that way for long. But if you teach the kids the skills they need, win or lose they will play a good game.

Converting Jordan’s idea to more of a life thing, as I understand it (and still paraphrasing), you won’t get as far in business if you cheat people as you will if you develop skills for building “win-win” relationships. That doesn’t mean every business deal will be successful, but you will get a lot more chances to make constructive business deals than you will if everyone thinks you are a cheat they can’t trust.

So investing is much the same. You can’t tell how every decision will work. Some will fail miserably. The best you can do is make more good decisions than bad ones. Everyone who’s ever traded speculatively knows what a “stop-loss” is. Why do they exist? Because you aren’t going to win every day.

But on the subject of “stop-losses”, I do want to make the point that it is not always a bad idea to sell at a loss. Sometimes the horse is dead or dying and you are better off getting what you can for the carcass and putting the money into a healthy horse. Entirely exiting the market is a bad idea, but re-positioning what money you’ve got can be a good idea. Not every down stock is a Phoenix destined to rise from the ashes. So if it’s a dead RIM sell it and buy Apple. You are still in the market, just in a better place. Although I wouldn’t buy Apple right now. Who could have thought that phones could actually become too expensive for consumers, even rich ones, but they have. Que the Chinese.

#41 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.12.19 at 8:55 pm

@#33 Response to TO hater
” A sad sack of putrid crap masquerading as a human being….”
+++++

Would you mind terribly if I borrowed that line sometime?

#42 Yuus bin Haad on 01.12.19 at 9:05 pm

Doug “investing” in frivolous commodities? I wouldn’t be surprised to see Ryan guesting on BNN next.

#43 Al on 01.12.19 at 9:09 pm

That was a good post. But that is after 2 beers. But still I liked it.

A good keep things in perspective post.

Plus I like that you were vulnerable and told us a little bit about your personal side.

Makes you more real and human.

#44 mike from mtl on 01.12.19 at 9:24 pm

Once again quoting the 500 for ‘long term’ bias. Pretty much only the 500 is like that over decades, DAX flat, FTSE flat, TSE flat, NIKKEI flat. For ‘reasons’ I won’t get into only the last decades the s&p escaped the reality.

Investing means.. well.. investing in future values which is very true but the reality of maple heavy portfolios. Investing in CA$ is far worse than FTSE as we are barely a footnote, ASX is more importance example to Yahoo Finance than TSE – who cares about the TSE? TSE is very boom and bust so I’d wager most Canadian portfolios contain far too much TSE and get at best 3% y/y.

#45 not 1st on 01.12.19 at 9:30 pm

Canada is likely a ‘net zero’ polluter

https://calgaryherald.com/opinion/columnists/smith-a-net-zero-goal-may-be-what-it-takes-to-unite-canada

#46 Vampire studies on 01.12.19 at 9:33 pm

I have a Jean Beliveau card like this one in good
condition

https://www.ebay.com/itm/1970-71-OPC-O-PEE-CHEE-HOCKEY-55-JEAN-BELIVEAU-HOF-VG-MONTREAL-CANADIENS/302595853867?hash=item46741e4e2b:g:vGUAAOSwXOVaVGr2

I think the original pack was 10 cents. Assuming no other cards of any value in the pack, and if I can get $10 that’s a 100 fold increase in 48 years. So double in value almost 7 times in almost 49 years so every 7 years. Rule of 72 gives about 10% pa.

I’ll just hang on to it…..

#47 WiseGuy on 01.12.19 at 9:34 pm

It’s funny, because Garth spoke about potential turmoil when October hits due to midterm elections and so forth back in the summer. I took my RSP money out of the market due to fear in mid October and lucked out, then I put it back in just after Christmas. It’s in a diversified SunLife portfolio designed for my company.

So I kind of lucked out, but I’ve missed great opportunities by taking my money out when Donald Trump got elected. I expected the market to nose dive and it did the exact opposite. I feel like I’ve learned my lesson and want to now just leave the money in there. I’m 20 years from retirement, but I just have one big worry.
In 1966 the DOW Jones was approximately 7200, but for the next 16 years it consistently went down until the bottom in 1982, where it stood at around 2600 and it didn’t recover the same index until about 1992, where the index again hit 7200.

If we are in a bear market or at least the start of one, the stock market could go down year after year like it did in 1966. What happened during this period for it to go down for so long?

#48 Doug Rowat on 01.12.19 at 9:56 pm

#32 realistic on 01.12.19 at 7:04 pm

my sense is your plan is to buy stocks, keep buying and hope for the best. which isnt much of a strategy.

why not exit your stock holdings when the technicals call for it. ? and re-enter again when the situation improves.

Note the chart’s fine print: a 9.96% annualized total return over 30 years. So yes, a pretty good strategy.

As for your second point, I assume when you say “exit” you mean exit entirely, which is exactly the extreme wagering I caution against in the post itself.

I have no ability to perfectly time equity markets, exiting and re-entering the market with 100% accuracy. And neither do you.

–Doug

#49 WUL on 01.12.19 at 10:02 pm

#33 Response to Toronto Hater on 01.12.19 at 7:18 pm
#4 Toronto Hater

Toronto has the,…, 2nd best hockey team in the standings…”

forecheck…backcheck…paycheque

The Flames play in Calgary. Please try to remain au courant.

#50 Doug Rowat on 01.12.19 at 10:04 pm

#34 WUL on 01.12.19 at 7:23 pm

Doug, I am saving this post. Thank you. This discussion on decision making applies to my assessment of the prospects on civil trials in my practice. Also gives nice language I can use to explain trial results when I phone the client to advise of the result the trial justice delivered. Beats my old opening line of “Are you sitting down?”. Appreciated.

Thank you, but I mainly highlight the ideas of Annie Duke. Incidentally, she also mentions the variability of trial/legal results. Just like in poker, a lawyer can be beaten by the judge or jury on the river.

–Doug

#51 Doug Rowat on 01.12.19 at 10:15 pm

#42 Al on 01.12.19 at 9:09 pm

That was a good post. But that is after 2 beers. But still I liked it.

A good keep things in perspective post.

Plus I like that you were vulnerable and told us a little bit about your personal side.

Makes you more real and human.

You had me at “beer”.

–Doug

#52 Bottoms_Up on 01.12.19 at 10:43 pm

great points, thanks

#53 David Driven on 01.12.19 at 11:46 pm

Right, you’ll never be right 100% of the time even with the best information. Be right more often than you’re wrong is what the pros shoot for. The technically driven anal robo advisors underperform for a reason, no human intuition or experience and no judgement in the face of adversity. If I didn’t know better I would have thought that technical investing was created by the tax man as a way to get you to churn.

Buy a selection of the best dividend stocks and take for granted that every once in a while a CEO will lie, embezzale, gamble or just for something stupid, like follow the announcements of a politician. Shit happens, the market is a human invention after all. There is no way to zero risk. Look at the 60/40 funds, down just as much as everything else.

Don’t concentrate on individual sectors, gold, uranium, Bitcoin et al are all money killers. Think of how sweet it is to watch Garth pay his utility bill and you getting a dividend from it. That’s taking candy from a baby. There’s no magic to it. You don’t have to lock yourself in a sweaty room with a bunch of flatulent money runners to invest profitably.

#54 Old Dog New Tricks on 01.13.19 at 12:27 am

Some true enjoyment can be had hunting for that rare or unique piece that compliments your collection. Sharing stories like this good or bad, is also rewarding. If you make some extra cash while doing something that you enjoy. Double Bonus. But from my experience that extra cash just gets put back into more comic books, and cards. Ha! Great post Doug.

#55 Smoking Man on 01.13.19 at 12:52 am

Doug I’m now on Garths Shit list. How do I get out of the dog house?

I like you man, but you come across as some one who has a fresh coat of shellac, shining your way through life.

You are like the typical Canadian. Reaching for the proper things to say all the time. Being offensive not in your DNA

Makes you wimp as far as I’m concerned.

Come to weirdo California, no deodorant required, the weirder the better. I fit in good here.

Canada rejected me. I gave to every homeless bastards by union station, the left basically spit on then.

Liberalism is hypocracy of epic proportions. The bad pretending to be good

Me I’m the good pretending to be bad.

Blame it on booze…

#56 For those about to flop... on 01.13.19 at 1:33 am

Race to a million.

Burnaby edition.

So we’ve established that the bottom rung of Burnaby detached is slipping back below a million, and this little bungy appears set to join that crowd after not being able to get an acceptable offer after asking 1.13

The details…

5431 Manor st,Burnaby.

Originally asking 1.24

Now asking 1.08

Assessment 2018 911k

Assessment 2017 969k

So one of the cheapest options in Burnaby has been on the market for 7 months with 3 price reductions and still no dice.

Their assessment just got rolled back and whoever bought it for 875k in December 2015 is still in decent shape but their paper equity is starting to smoulder…

M44BC

https://www.zolo.ca/burnaby-real-estate/5431-manor-street

Jan 12, 2019 $1,080,000 Price Reduced
Sep 19, 2018 $1,135,000 Price Reduced
Aug 8, 2018 $1,190,000 Price Reduced
Jun 13, 2018 $1,240,000

#57 Nick on 01.13.19 at 1:51 am

Well as someone who actually buys high end sports card memorabilia, there are a number of issues with your investment criteria that you may not have considered. An obvious one is the hockey market the player plays in. The original six and a few Canadian teams support a decent investment following, but the Isles dont make the cut and Barzal is talented but nowhere near a generational type player that can overcome his market. Tavares cards recently could be found relatively cheaply for his accomplishments but once he moved to Toronto his rare cards/autos spiked significantly. It took the move to a big market to really garner serious investment in his cards;otherwise they would still be sitting in discount bins and hardcore islander fans(all 10,000 of them) closets.

I’m assuming you bought the cup auto version of Barzal, or some rare 1/1 auto. He’s a nice player and I have a few of his mid high end cards myself, but of all the guys to pick from the 16-17 class you could have picked a handful of other players that have greater upside and play in markets that will allow for long term growth. The Leafs alone have three players from that set that have more long term upside if they fulfill their potential. Unfortunately for people trying to buy now, their cards have exploded the last year so Good luck finding value. Your probability take on justifying passing on the one yard line doesn’t take into account 1 essential thing: marshawn Lynch. The dude was a best at that time and probably the rb in the game – you run the damn ball there 1000 times out of a 1000.

#58 Stan Brooks on 01.13.19 at 2:23 am

#35 Stan Brooks, A Lifetime of Incompetence on 01.12.19 at 7:25 pm

post # 4 is from a completely different person (50 YEARS OF MAPLE LEAF INCOMPETENCE! ). That is not me.

Now some other observations:
1. The style of these posts, including the capitalization of the titles is entirely in line with your posts on this blog.

2. Such posts are posted frequently and conveniently and are subject to immediate follow ups by you, accompanied by accusations and associations of the author with other posters on this blog by you.

Are you inventing fake plays in order to discredit opponents who otherwise your can’t confront?

Stupid strategy, but hey, I would not expect much more from a hungry realtor.

It is sad that some people fall for such tricks.

#59 Stan Brooks on 01.13.19 at 2:32 am

#38 I’m stupid on 01.12.19 at 8:25 pm

In poker there is also intuition, psychology, assessment of the context specific situation. The rest is game theory.

But there are great poker players who possess more than pure luck; they are better at developing winning strategy in an uncertain environment against specific opponents.

#60 Stan Brooks on 01.13.19 at 2:46 am

The growing world that you should be investing in:

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/worlds-largest-10-economies-2030/

We are on track to become less than 1 % of the world economy by 2030.

Which brings the following questions:

1. Why would you invest in an economy that at best grows much slower than the rest of the world.

2. If you are to be diversified, why would you put more than 1 % of your net worth (including housing) in it?

3. Who would be the educated immigrants who will give up the growth, the opportunities and improvement of life in their countries to come here considering the lifestyle, the cost of living in order to become most likely minimum wage earners?

How would you qualify a person who will most likely give up a career to come to a country with saturated labour market, stagnant wages, where cost of living increases by 8-10 % per year and a house in the big cities costs 15 times, condo 12 times average after tax household income, for new immigrants respectively 40 times annual income for a house, 25 for a condo?

Which takes completely out the chances of having kids or ever retire?

Only one words comes to mind: Insane.

#61 BillyBob on 01.13.19 at 4:48 am

#18 Doug Rowat on 01.12.19 at 4:32 pm
#10 Adele on 01.12.19 at 3:09 pm

Maybe if you don’t know the difference between a trade and a UFA signing you shouldn’t invest in hockey memorabilia?

Thank you, correct. And thanks for saving me in high school. I was a total nerd, but the smart-ass pedants? They always got beaten up first.

–Doug

===================================

Now THAT, my friends, is a comeback.

As someone who also possesses a massive disdain for pedants, I savoured your words.

When did the world become so infested with sideline-dwelling, nitpicking, potshot-taking know-it-alls?

Thanks for posting, Doug. Not all of us missed your point entirely.

#62 I’m stupid on 01.13.19 at 7:17 am

#58 Stan Brooks

Don’t believe the hype. Just because you see a guy that has huge carrer earnings doesn’t mean he’s actually up. Most of these guys are degenerates, they’ll be up then down. The only guys that actually have money are the ones that get sponsored or have money coming in from non poker related businesses.

Math is easy. If your playing the big tournaments as a professional it’s going to cost you 10k to upwards of 1million for the one drop.

If you think that there is 1 tournament a month at 10k plus hotel and travel that’s going to cost you 200k a year. These tournaments don’t finish in a day. Some take a week WSOP. That’s not including side games. So winning a Wpt event at 700k isn’t going to cut it because you need to win one every 3 years to break even. I didn’t even factor in taxes.

#63 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.13.19 at 8:29 am

@#55 Flop

5..4…3….1 Manor st
They cant count down. It failed to “launch”.

#64 att on 01.13.19 at 8:29 am

Doug, this was an excellent posting on investor psychology. You understand the issues facing investors and communicate it in a clever way. Enjoyed reading it

#65 Response to Toronto Hater on 01.13.19 at 9:00 am

#48 WUL on 01.12.19 at 10:02 pm
#33 Response to Toronto Hater on 01.12.19 at 7:18 pm
#4 Toronto Hater

“The Flames play in Calgary. Please try to remain au courant.:

You are indeed correct. Nice to see another Canadian team doing so well. Go Flames go!

#66 Stan Brooks, A Lifetime of Incompetence on 01.13.19 at 9:08 am

#59 Stan Brooks

Good evasion of my question Stanley other than saying you are not the Toronto hater. My main question was why your hatred for all things Canada. I have excellent knowledge of immigrants coming to Canada and they are continuing to come in droves. I am in private education and our high school is entirely composed of international students. From 15 nations and growing.

No I am not a realtor you mindless moron. They come here because as one student told me, he bought a 25K car in Toronto that would have cost him over 100k in Turkey. His $1000 iPhone costs over $3000 in Turkey. Ditto for my Persian students. The other reason they just love Canada is our freedom of speech which they have very little of in many of their countries. Yep, freedom of speech that allows a mindless moron like you to post on a blog like this. Pack your bags and leave Stanley and stop bashing this great land. If you hate it that much, get the hell out of here. You won’t be missed you moron.

#67 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.13.19 at 9:31 am

J.Edgar Hoover must be spinning in his grave at the thought of possibly …….

Democrat “President Castro” in command of the US in 2021.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/12/politics/julian-castro-presidential-announcement/index.html

#68 dharma bum on 01.13.19 at 9:32 am

In other words, it was the correct decision to buy the card, but simply the wrong result the following season.
_Doug
——————————————————————–

Yes doctor, the operation was a success. Unfortunately, the patient is dead.

In real life, the only things that matter are the results.

#69 50 YEARS OF MAPLE LEAF INCOMPETENCE! on 01.13.19 at 9:49 am

BRUINS CRUSH THE MAKE BELIEVES AGAIN!!

https://www.thestar.com/sports/leafs/2019/01/12/bruins-still-have-leafs-number-but-at-least-theyre-done-for-the-regular-season.html

Bwaahaahaahaaahaaaaaa!!

Every single time it really matters, Toronturds choke. AGAIN. So much for last night’s “statement” game – it was just another statement of surrender.

Whenever they play competent franchises, they fold.

Like in 1969, two years after that team was remotely competent. Swept by the Bruins in the playoffs.

Game 1?

10 – 0 for the Bruins.

That’s 10 to NOTHING, Toronturds.

“Nothing” translated?

The sum total of all reasons to live in or buy property in the GTA.

The Make Believes for 52 years, the Blow Jays for 25, the Wrapped Whores forever. Generations of people in the GTA have no idea what winning something meaningful is about. And no idea what a livable, affordable, non-violent urban area feels like.

Your city, your whole region, SUCKS.

P.S. How many stabbings and shootings in the GTA last night? How many car crashes by distracted selfish moron drivers? Anybody got the running total? It’s hard to keep track….

As your real estate market melts away, the GTA will soon be the New Detroit, an indebted sinkhole of misery, violence and fear.

Get out now while you can, Toronturds.

#70 For those about to flop... on 01.13.19 at 10:47 am

crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.13.19 at 8:29 am
@#55 Flop

5..4…3….1 Manor st
They cant count down. It failed to “launch”.

//////////////////////////
Morning Crowdie,maybe it’s because the house is a number 2…

M44BC

#71 Drill Baby Drill on 01.13.19 at 10:50 am

#66
Justin’s cousin

#72 Triplenet on 01.13.19 at 10:52 am

#55 Flop
In any real estate analysis I wouldn’t rely too heavily on BC Assessment values or sale prices.
They’re not intended to provide precise data.

#73 X on 01.13.19 at 11:06 am

Barzal….really. Not that he is a bad player….but why Barzal? Living here in Toronto, I am sure there is a Matthews and/or Marner card you could get in that price range that you would have better luck getting your money back with a local fan.

If I run into you at any of the sportcardexpo’s I will say hello.

#74 Doug Rowat on 01.13.19 at 11:07 am

#56 Nick on 01.13.19 at 1:51 am

Well as someone who actually buys high end sports card memorabilia, there are a number of issues with your investment criteria that you may not have considered. An obvious one is the hockey market the player plays in. The original six and a few Canadian teams support a decent investment following, but the Isles dont make the cut and Barzal is talented but nowhere near a generational type player that can overcome his market.

…but of all the guys to pick from the 16-17 class you could have picked a handful of other players that have greater upside and play in markets that will allow for long term growth. The Leafs alone have three players from that set that have more long term upside…

Am I the only one who struggles with the ‘generational talent’ label that’s been applied to Auston Matthews? McDavid has averaged 1.28 PPG on a weak team (perhaps abysmal without him) versus Matthews at 0.99.

Of course a player’s city affects value, but an investment thesis is never perfect. It’s just a weighting of the pros and cons. I felt the pros came out ahead. The point of the post was also to highlight an investment that didn’t work out. Barzal isn’t the only card that I own–if there’s an investment component, balance and diversification should apply to our hobbies as well.

And you’ve avoided all the Lindros rookies throughout your professional card-buying career? Never had to discount inventory that you overbought?

–Doug

#75 Response to Toronto Hater on 01.13.19 at 11:28 am

#68 Toronto Hater

You are a sick individual, truly sick. I won’t lower myself any longer to counter your truly insane diatribes. Keep it up loser, you expose yourself every time you blather your deranged posts. You are the true turd not the good citizens of Toronto. Let me see, what other Canadian city has a first place NBA team? Any NBA team? What other Canadian city has a professional baseball team with two World Series championships? Where are the Expos? Grizzlies? Hmmm… By the way, I love all things Canadian and wish there were more NBA and MLB teams in Canada. I would never bash any region or city, town, village in this great land. Only moronic losers like you do. I still think you are Stanley Brooks and even if you are not, you are as deranged as he is. Share the same rubber room?

#76 TurnerNation on 01.13.19 at 12:08 pm

Unfortunately I cannot recommend buying of individual hockey cards. Rather, a full pack of that year’s issuance should be bought, to ensure a diversified and balanced mix. This post highlights the problem of BSD Hockey Card Cowboys and their flightful recommendations.

A weekend trend thought has anyone opened up a local or national newspaper lately? It is 80% propaganda, UN and SJW programming. Very little news and certainly not of those pulling the levers in the background. Just the spinning fluff to keep us revving.

#77 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.13.19 at 12:20 pm

I, for one, drive more carefully after witnessing a car accident. And I believe most drivers do the same.
Therefore, witnessing an accident “does” reduce the probability of future accidents.
People are not robots, and emotions will always factor into their decision making.
Otherwise, good thought provoking analys, Doug.

#78 TurnerNation on 01.13.19 at 12:26 pm

If you don’t think press-based propaganda works…last night I spoke with two humans. One has a portable career but will not go and work in USA ‘because Trump’. No reasons given.
Another, a very smart recent STEM graduate said the same thing.
Why are people scared of the world’s largest and most rocking economy?
Do they think Canada will fare better? We are doomed. Recent survey show that Drug/Weed/Booze use by millennials is off the charts. Productivity is going nowhere. Birth rates will be scarce, if not damaged.
I’m going to work tomorrow and paying to support Tweeters. My pleasure folks, it’s what I do. Anytime.

#79 TurnerNation on 01.13.19 at 12:31 pm

^Add weed and “legal” psychotropic meds from the pushers, mix this in and you have unproductive mindless zombies. Canada is going nowhere.

CBC:
“Young people aged 20 to 24 show signs of riskier alcohol use, the annual survey consistently finds. Twenty-nine per cent of that age group exceeded the amount of drinking required to be considered chronic risk. According to the guidelines, chronic risk means drinking up to 10 drink a week for women and 15 for men.”

#80 Kilt on 01.13.19 at 12:57 pm

Finally some descent advice. More emphasis should be placed on giving sound advice rather than making absurd predictions that always makes the author look like a fool.
I’ve reduced my cash from 10% to about 2.5% over the past month. Doubled down on oil as well. Hope that doesn’t bite me.

Kilt.

#81 Stan Brooks on 01.13.19 at 1:01 pm

#65 Stan Brooks, A Lifetime of Incompetence on

Nice attitude and lingo for a private educator who charges north of $ 1500 a month for private high school education in GTA.
Well worth the money, no doubt.
Of course you have no incentive whatsoever to promote the ‘great lifestyle and wealth that GTA enjoys’.

While other people promote TSX:

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/canadian-stocks-set-outperform-u-s-shares-2019-manulife-193121072.html

Not sure which part of the ‘this sheeple is broken and bankrupt’ is not clear but hey, keep trying.

#82 KLNR on 01.13.19 at 1:10 pm

@#68 50 YEARS OF MAPLE LEAF INCOMPETENCE! on 01.13.19 at 9:49 am
_________________________

LOL, you poor bugger.

#83 Stan Brooks, A Lifetime of Incompetence on 01.13.19 at 1:53 pm

#80 Stan Brooks on 01.13.19 at 1:01 pm
#65 Stan Brooks, A Lifetime of Incompetence on

“Nice attitude and lingo for a private educator who charges north of $ 1500 a month for private high school education in GTA.Well worth the money, no doubt.”

The attitude and lingo is reserved for you Stanley, not my students. They love me and I care highly for them. Every cent they pay in tuition is indeed well worth the money for them and they know it.

#84 LivinLarge on 01.13.19 at 2:26 pm

“Am I the only one who struggles with the ‘generational talent’ label that’s been applied to Auston Matthews? McDavid has averaged 1.28 PPG on a weak team (perhaps abysmal without him) versus Matthews at 0.99.”…hmmm, no idea but aren’t these stats a reason to call a bookie and bet on a game rather than bet on a “card” with no intrinsic value.

#85 PastThePeak on 01.13.19 at 3:35 pm

Thanks Doug. Always appreciate the weekend warriors.

On the subject of the TSX, while CAD stocks are indeed more cheaply valued than US stocks on a P/E basis, I am not confident that the market will significantly change its valuation.

The Canadian economy is not expected to grow much in 2019 (1.7% is latest BoC number), and most of the economies issue still remain IMO – energy projects going nowhere (you could even say building anything large is highly suspect); consumer debt is still sky high & growing; gov’t debt growth barely slowing down at all; Chinese tensions with Canada; US tariffs; Brexit uncertainty.

A US / China trade deal that removes much of that uncertainty will help Canada somewhat I suppose, and perhaps stock prices even more, but it will benefit US equities the most.

What positive catalysts are out there for Canadian economic growth? 1.7% Fcst this year, when US growth is closer to 3%. US growth likely to not go higher, and I would think global growth will overall slow, so don’t see anything there to increase our growth rate. All the trade deals of any import Canada has done.

So back to the TSX. Some companies, which have a sizeable US / international business could do well, and that is where I will be focusing. The index as a whole isn’t likely to outgrow the US, at least not for long.

#86 ShawnG in TO on 01.13.19 at 4:21 pm

i have totally sensible conclusion:
democrats are mostly wrong, and republicans are mostly wrong.

when the headline said castro is running for president, i was thinking of this castro:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6558991/Rich-kids-COMMUNISM-Fidel-Castros-model-grandson-flashes-wealth-European-vacations.html

totally rich, but claims to be from a poor family. perfect for the democrats

#87 Hockey Games on 01.13.19 at 4:35 pm

There was nothing more exciting than listening to a hockey game with a rocket crystal radio. It cost no more than $3.00, and a guy found a box of them in a warehouse. He is selling them for $120.00 CAD on the net. My dad had season tickets for all the games in Toronto, and they were the red seats in the middle funded by the company he worked for. Never a problem hooping me a date for the evening.

#88 Terry on 01.13.19 at 4:39 pm

“For example, adding to a portfolio, particularly on market weakness, is a sound strategy. But it’s entirely possible that at the moment you invest the money the market will drop. This is a bad result, but the decision to add funds was correct. After all, markets eventually move higher.”

Absolutely correct here Ryan. Many times when I add more to my positions and most always during market weakness, the market drops further. I don’t try to time the market. When prices are down and I have the funds then it’s time to buy more of the quality picks I have owned for years. I learned long ago to stop beating myself up when the markets drop further just after I buy more. In every instance going back decades this strategy has ALWAYS worked to plump my portfolio to even higher and higher new record highs over the appropriate timelines.

#89 NoName on 01.13.19 at 4:59 pm

#83 LivinLarge on 01.13.19 at 2:26 pm
“Am I the only one who struggles with the ‘generational talent’ label that’s been applied to Auston Matthews? McDavid has averaged 1.28 PPG on a weak team (perhaps abysmal without him) versus Matthews at 0.99.”…hmmm, no idea but aren’t these stats a reason to call a bookie and bet on a game rather than bet on a “card” with no intrinsic value.

Actually there is a instrumental value and intrinsic value in a rookie card.

Instrumental value – used as a coaster
Intrinsic value – conversation peace, that may or may not went up after this blog post.

#90 Fish on 01.13.19 at 5:09 pm

Enjoy your card
You liked it at the time, you might enjoy it in your retirement days take your time is always wise
Thankyou

#91 stage1dave on 01.13.19 at 5:35 pm

Mr Rowat; solid observations…for every Crosby or Ovechkin there’s a dozen Daigle’s. I went thru the RC phase in the early 90s and bailed pretty quick, and besides my interest is centered on 68-72 OPC (raw and graded) because that’s what I grew up with.

It’s a lot easier to stomach a loss when you know you would have bought the item anyway…investment-wise, I use the other side of my brain.

Speaking of which, even though I’ve continued to gobble up 68-71 OPC hockey and CFL in PSA and SGC holders, I’ve been buying a lot of 57-62 Topps hockey last couple years. The cards are quite striking in appearance, showcase the games’ most recognizable stars, and I think they will appreciate nicely in the years to come.

They’re also great conversation starters and look pretty cool in a nice display case. As my MIL observed after checking out my 59 Topps Glenn Hall “…thats a good picture of Glenn, I went to school with him! He was a grade ahead of me”

Cripes, ya just never know, y’know?

(Hopefully I’ll catch one of the sportcard posts in real time at least once)

#92 acdel on 01.13.19 at 11:50 pm

Hmm!

https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/warren-buffet-says-we-learned-nothing-from-the-financial-crisis-of-08/

#93 KS on 01.14.19 at 12:56 pm

Doug,
Thank you for this, such a timely and well-worded post. Towards the end of last year I dumped a bunch of money into my TFSA only to see sharp declines in everything. I’ve been kicking myself ever since for not dripping it in monthly or choosing stocks over preferreds, etc. Reading this helps me see the forest over the trees. Much appreciated!

#94 Travis on 01.14.19 at 4:12 pm

You can make no mistakes and still lose. That is not weakness Mr. Data, that is life.

-JLP