The big surprise

Since Christmas Eve – just a couple of weeks ago – the stock market has gained 10%. Preferreds are up. So are REITs. Investors who ignored the noise are seeing their portfolios being reflated after the Trump-induced hissy-fit of late 2018. The portfolio managers I take hot yoga with (seriously) are unanimous. No crash. No bear. No recession. In fact 2019 is expected to deliver some big surprises.

Anyone who pumped money into financial assets in late December when the comments section was a sea of nausea and spittle was a genius. Just as the media was telling you it was the worst such month since – gasp! – 1932, and doomers said stock plops meant a big recession was approaching, equity values scraped bottom.

Hardest hit were those who sold, turning paper losses into real ones – especially inside an RRSP or TFSA where losses cannot be deducted from gains. The final weeks of 2018 proved yet again what this painfully prescient blog has said repeatedly. Never sell into a storm. Have confidence all downturns are temporary. Ignore the noise. Stay invested. Never exit an asset class. Suppress fear. Remember history. Go pet your dog.

Over the last two decades someone staying fully invested in US stocks for example – never selling and ignoring downturns, even 2008 – made almost 10% a year. An investor trying to time the market, or some cowboy ‘advisor’ seeking to add alpha, would see that drop to 6% just by missing the best ten days over the course of 20 years. That’s because more than 70% of the time markets go up – since stocks are a proxy for the growing economy. And it’s very unusual to have back-to-back years of falling markets.

More importantly, portfolios are unlikely to suffer when there’s no recession. Like now. Investors have been waking up to the fact the economy is robust, employment strong, inflation tame and corporate profits expected to jump 8% this year. So the sell-off we just went through made stocks, preferreds, REITs and other assets cheaper as P/E ratios (the price of a stock relative to company profits) tumbled. In other words, the carnage on Wall and Bay Streets wasn’t a precursor to recession. Overwhelmingly, it was Trump. His trade wars. His fight with the Fed. The Wall battle. Markets like certainty. He loves chaos.

So, I hope you didn’t sell. Once again you have hard evidence of why most people fail at do-it-yourself investing. They cannot overcome human nature. They crave what’s going up. They dump the losers. Buy high and sell low. It just never, ever ends. This is why the job of a financial advisor, at least half the time, is to save people from themselves.

Now, what’s next?

My yoga guys think this is the year the Canadian market struggles from its funk and actually outperforms Wall Street. Canadian crude oil prices have rebounded. The labour market is solid. Corporate profits are decent. The pipeline thing may even get resolved. And valuations are cheap. Once Trump does his trade deal with China (that’s a certainty as he prepares for 2020), global growth prospects will improve and commodity prices rise. All bullish for maple.

Did I mention no recession? The bond market says so. Now stocks are agreeing. Here’s what economists at Scotiabank state about the odds of a downturn in the US economy:

“It would be unusual to get a pronounced recession amidst evidence of very healthy household balance sheets. Consumer credit flows have been strengthening recently. The saving rate—out of disposable income—has not been depleted with wealth gains being spent; rather, it has held around a steady 6% rate for years now. Combined with the lowest share of income going toward debt payments on record and solid income and job growth, the signs of serious challenges that would affect about two-thirds of the economy represented by consumers are scant.”

Look at this chart depicting the debt service ratio of US families. You can see that in 2006 it was extreme, and today’s it’s comatose. No, 2008 is not coming back any time soon.

In fact, here are some predictions the bank is making that might startle you:

  • Three interest rate increases in 2019 by the US central bank.
  • No rate cuts. “Either no hikes or rate cuts are difficult to envisage and need a lot to go awfully wrong that at this point we are not prepared to assume.”
  • Three more rate hikes by the Bank of Canada this year, taking the prime rate to 4.7% and the mortgage stress test past 6%. So much for real estate.
  • “Our forecast for the Bank of Canada is relatively aggressive with three hikes predicted over the duration of this year and possibly one more in 2020 before the central bank calls it quits this cycle.”

Moral: never, ever read the comments section. If you do, like me, wear rubber.

122 comments ↓

#1 Dave on 01.11.19 at 5:35 pm

So when is BOC first 2019 bump?

#2 dakkie on 01.11.19 at 5:44 pm

The Housing BUBBLE Is BURSTING! – Experts Predict MASSIVE CRASH!

https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/the-housing-bubble-is-bursting-experts-predict-massive-crash/

#3 Garth’s wrong on 01.11.19 at 5:45 pm

Yes spouses can have 2 different residences! Your wrong Garth lol

Ask the CRA. – Garth

#4 NoName on 01.11.19 at 5:58 pm

Anyone who pumped money into financial assets in late December when the comments section was a sea of nausea and spittle was a genius. – GT

There you have it comment section dogs and bitches, its official now.

https://www.greaterfool.ca/2018/12/25/turkeys-2/#comment-629455

#5 jonathon kimball on 01.11.19 at 6:02 pm

#1 rule of comment section: if a stock/etf/thing you own is ‘recommended’ sell immediately. So if you sold CPD, VET, that gold miner, and any others as soon as they were mentioned here, you sold at the peak!

#6 Stan Brooks on 01.11.19 at 6:05 pm

Our economy is so hot that it can’t handle 1.75 % rates, BoC said it this week.

When the economy was not so hot rates were 4-6 %.

BoC just revised down its expectations for the economy to grow by 1.7 % yearly while the world/that we need to compete with in order to attract capital grows by 3.5 % and is actually not drown in debt.

Did I mentioned that we are at peak debt and the discretionary spending is shrinking?

The oil that grows in price is the Brent and WTI that we actually have to buy on international markets, not WCS that we sell.

Where do investors go? My barber/hairdresser told me:

For value to Europe.
For growth go developing world.
For technology go US.

One of the best performing stock exchanges in local currency was Brazil in the midst of their currency crisis.

Pipeline? Investors attracted by liberal polices?
Sure, I believe in unicorns too.

#7 LMGTFY Dave on 01.11.19 at 6:10 pm

Let Me Google That For You Dave:

https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/press_310718.pdf

Wednesday, January 9*
• Wednesday, March 6
• Wednesday, April 24*
• Wednesday, May 29
• Wednesday, July 10*
• Wednesday, September 4
• Wednesday, October 30*
• Wednesday, December 4

* indicates rate announcement

#8 JSS on 01.11.19 at 6:12 pm

Dividend increases from:
– Canadian Utilities
– ATCO

Each announced 7.5% increase.
Not as high as previous years, but hey when’s the last time you received a 7.5% raise? Didn’t think so.

Rub tummy

#9 AGuyInVancouver on 01.11.19 at 6:14 pm

I would not be surprised to see the strees test capped at 5%. A nice round number, and realisitically as high as interest rates are ever likely to rise.

#10 Joe Schmoe on 01.11.19 at 6:16 pm

I trust your (and your cohorts) investment strategies, but I disagree with your assessment on Canadian stocks.

Politics and baffling knee-jerk reactions to pander to an irrational voter base seems to impact the Canadian markets more than any fundamental market basis.

I don’t trust these current guys (of any party) won’t continue to be disruptive.

#11 CF on 01.11.19 at 6:24 pm

Garth, thanks for all your advice over the years. My wife and I have dumped as much as we can into our investments and avoided the insane Vancouver RE market, and your blog has helped reinforce that it is a good choice for us despite the cultlike mentality here.

I’m a young guy (35) dying of cancer and our investments are going to ensure the love of my life is taken care of comfortably, and can take her time getting back to a normal life after I go. Being stuck with a house would be a huge extra headache for her as she’ll want to downsize and possibly move away from here. I just wanted to let you know you’ve had a positive impact even in the worst of circumstances.

You are a courageous, loving person. Our thoughts are with you. I am humbled by your words. – Garth

#12 Cj on 01.11.19 at 6:26 pm

Even better advise is to ignore all forecasts…or better yet do the opposite!

#13 Centre-Right? on 01.11.19 at 6:26 pm

What Dave said.

#14 Fish on 01.11.19 at 6:27 pm

Merged hydro companies in northwestern Ontario now known as Synergy North
The merge was officially effective January 1, 2019
CBC News · Posted: Jan 11, 2019 1:08 PM ET | Last Updated: 5 hours ago

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/thunder-bay/kenora-thunderbay-hydro-merger-1.4974535

#15 yvrmc on 01.11.19 at 6:29 pm

I look forward to seeing the yvr RE market reaction to increased listings and higher interest rates , along with tougher mortgage rules…. its been a slow descent in N.Van but it is happening …

#16 Mike in Airdrie on 01.11.19 at 6:30 pm

Do you think Canada’s economy can pull out of the funk with the Liberals still in power attacking small business and the evil rich?

#17 Stan Brooks on 01.11.19 at 6:34 pm

11 comments ↓
#1 Dave on 01.11.19 at 5:35 pm
So when is BOC first 2019 bump?

In 2039, ‘increase’ from – 4.5 (minus 4.5 %) to – 4.25 % (minus 4.25 %)

#18 Kelsey on 01.11.19 at 6:36 pm

Fed Rate odds for January 29, 2020, according to CME:

Ease: 21.6%
Same: 64.9%
Hike: 13.5%

Market pricing in only 0.7% chance of two hikes a year from now.

https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html/

From there yield curve is mildly inverted from 1 year to 7 years out.

#19 Nothingburgers on 01.11.19 at 6:47 pm

So the benchmark rate goes from 1.75% to maybe 2.75% by 2020 after 3 hikes this year and one next year before the credit tightening cycle ends. Hardly any ‘tightening.’

2.75% is a still incredibly cheap and will continue to subsidize and support an inflated market, one which increased 40% in the hottest markets since 2015.

2.75% is hardly anywhere near the historical norms of 5 to 6%, nor even the 4% that was discussed after it once it became clear the path to ‘normalization’ was a short one.

These are neligible increases that will not cause the market to correct enough for renters who have been on the sidelines waiting for ‘affordable housing’ after a decade of warnings of rising rates, and even half a decade by former Bank of Canada governors.

The story of rising rate hikes increasingly appears to be a nothing burger as there is no discernable dents in prices in any market other than the GTA. And certainly not singnificant price decreases following 100% or more in price increases since the alarm bells were sounded.

Owners who bought 3, 5 or 10 year years ago are way ahead of those that patiently waited, rented, and lived frugally hoping their smart predictions would materialize into a significant correction.

#20 Anne on 01.11.19 at 6:53 pm

#11 CF on 01.11.19 at 6:24 pm

Hi CF – Your comment has had a positive impact on me. It reminds me that time is our greatest resource. I wish you peace.

#21 The Real Mark on 01.11.19 at 6:53 pm

There’s still that not-so-minor problem of a flat or mildly inverted yield curve to deal with. And at least in Canada, no significant impetus towards inflation, given that the housing bubble is collapsing, likely to take consumer consumption with it.

Canada’s banks, unlike their US counterparts, do not generally conduct a “maturity transformation” business — they run fairly tightly matched portfolios so yield curve inversion doesn’t hit them quite as hard as is the case with the US banks that clearly borrow short, lend long. But Canada’s banks and the Canadian economy is not immune from the US macro environment, and everything looks an awful lot more deflationary than inflationary.

Having said that, the TSX hasn’t gone anywhere in a decade, and when it does take off eventually, the gains are likely to be spectacular. But as with anything, timing can be problematic.

#22 espressobob on 01.11.19 at 6:53 pm

There is a season to plant seeds and a time to harvest profit.

Funny how some DIY investors will never understand this. Their portfolios turn into a dog’s breakfast after throwing in the towel.

Bummer.

#23 Spock on 01.11.19 at 6:55 pm

# 11 CF:

We will keep you in our prayers and wish you and your family the very best for the current and the future.

It is great to see the positivity you exhibit in-spite of the circumstances.

———-
#11 CF

I’m a young guy (35) dying of cancer and our investments are going to ensure the love of my life is taken care of comfortably, and can take her time getting back to a normal life after I go.

#24 Brian Ripley on 01.11.19 at 6:56 pm

My yoga guys think this is the year the Canadian market struggles from its funk and actually outperforms Wall Street. Canadian crude oil prices have rebounded. The labour market is solid. Corporate profits are decent. The pipeline thing may even get resolved. And valuations are cheap. Once Trump does his trade deal with China (that’s a certainty as he prepares for 2020), global growth prospects will improve and commodity prices rise. All bullish for maple. Garth

Well, to add to today’s ebullience, yesterday I changed the Plunge-O-Meter page http://www.chpc.biz/plunge-o-meter.html to show 3 potential areas of support rather than one.

According to support based on 2013 prices, Calgary single family houses are a buy especially with Alberta household earnings only 2% below their peak.

Now I’ll go back to my bear cave and wait for Vancouver and Toronto to follow suit.

#25 Freebird on 01.11.19 at 6:59 pm

#[email protected]F
There are no words but my heart goes out to you and your wife. It’s a hard journey on both. If you haven’t please look into any/all home care you’re entitled to (both via cancer society and CCAC). It can be invaluable for the spouses/care givers as well at any age. For anyone else who may be in same position please look into as well it’s amazing how many aren’t aware. My husband and I have over 35 yrs of experience in home care both hospice and personally with family members. If you and your wife need or want some guidance navigating the system please contact Garth and we’d be honored to help in anyway we can. It’s a personal offer of assistance from having walked that road. We wish you only the best.

#26 TheDood on 01.11.19 at 6:59 pm

#15 yvrmc on 01.11.19 at 6:29 pm
I look forward to seeing the yvr RE market reaction to increased listings and higher interest rates , along with tougher mortgage rules…. its been a slow descent in N.Van but it is happening …
_____________________

You and me both.

It’s happening out here in Lower Mainland as well. We’ve been looking to downsize and are actively shopping for smaller footprint (not a condo). Made a low-ball offer on a smaller, newer property a few months back and walked after our own realtor – who’s supposed to be looking after OUR interests – laughed in our faces. Have since ignored multiple voice mails/emails wanting to ‘discuss and further explore’ the initial offer. No thanks, will wait several more months and then offer even less! If everyone did this, prices would plop even faster.

#27 yvrguy on 01.11.19 at 7:09 pm

Dumped my last piddly position in maple today. We have no real economy, direction or business friendly policy.

sold ZLB, bought ZLI

ZLI contains 18 countries, very well diversified.

It does contain Canada… 0.97% That seems about right.

#28 PGer on 01.11.19 at 7:10 pm

Thanks to Garth for all his advice over the years. Latest downturn, I just ignored, like Garth recommends (would have bought some more preferreds, but didn’t have much cash in my non-tax sheltered portfolio, where I like to hold preferreds).

So I just rode it out. I’ve got to admit that I peaked at my portfolio when things were at their worst – it bottomed down 8% overall (I hold mostly equities, preferreds, REITS, some GICs, few bonds).

We’re still down about 5% from their peak, but I don’t care. The money keeps rolling in from all the dividends and interest. It’s like being fed doggy treats all the time.

#29 Larry1 on 01.11.19 at 7:13 pm

While US consumer debt is looking fine, corporate may look a little less rosy, just ask Rosie.

The corporate bond market is today’s bubble, just like the mortgage market a decade ago was the bubble back then — David Rosenberg

#30 AK on 01.11.19 at 7:14 pm

“My yoga guys think this is the year the Canadian market struggles from its funk and actually outperforms Wall Street. Canadian crude oil prices have rebounded. The labour market is solid. Corporate profits are decent. The pipeline thing may even get resolved.”
====================================

The main reason will be that the Liberal Party will become defunct on October 21, 2019. Market will start pricing this event shortly.

#31 AK on 01.11.19 at 7:17 pm

“Did I mention no recession? The bond market says so.”
=====================================
According to Rosenberg, a recession is imminent. But then again, he has been calling for a recession since 2010. :-)

#32 NoName on 01.11.19 at 7:20 pm

I was looking stuff on Fakebook earlier today and i came across post from high-school friend of mine who takes her kid to robotics club couple of times a week to play and learn stem.

So just out of curiosity i gargled robotics clubs near me, 3 not that bad, closest one is 40 min drive across city, and couple of them with in high school…

What i would like to se is more of those even if gov have to subsidize them as after school programs, i know that McMast. and Waterloo have robotics summer camp for kids probably there is more of them. Take you kids there to learn somethin, it’ll pay out in long run.

Lego has a few robot configurations, fairly simple very versatile 2axis boost for 160cad on sale every once in a while, and more powerful EV3 bit pricey 400 but much more powerful. Can solve rubic cube on its own, kind of.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SBOdGG4sx4w

#33 Figmund Sreud on 01.11.19 at 7:30 pm

The portfolio managers I take hot yoga with (seriously) are unanimous. No crash. No bear. No recession.
_______________________________

Serious question(s): When you were assembling this esteemed Garth Turner superforecasting hot yoga team, what qualities were you insisting on in those superforecasting individuals? And since some individuals are more accurate superforecasters than others – as a rule, how did they all reach unanomousity? How did you eliminate those with bias? [Me, for example, I can’t talk myself out of the bias, no matter how hard I try. But that’s just my trait, … others may differ, I presume.]

Best,

F.S. – Calgary, Alberta.

#34 Out Of Work CEO, Will Travel on 01.11.19 at 7:33 pm

Is there any surprise down the pike if Canada continues to erode as a solid rule-of-law choice for investment? There seems to be messages from major entities like Shell and Kinder Morgan packing up or planning to pack up and do business in the states just not in Canada. We might be hit with real inflation not Venezuela crazy but more like Mexico. That weed portfolio is starting to stink.

#35 Graeme on 01.11.19 at 7:34 pm

Is this entirely based on your belief earnings will be good?
Jeff Gundlach is completely wrong then?
I’m having trouble with this.. knowing what to believe and why. I’d like to hear the bear case fully debunked if you have time :)

#36 Craig on 01.11.19 at 7:45 pm

Best wishes for CF and his beloved wife.

#37 For those about to flop... on 01.11.19 at 7:45 pm

Recent sale report.

This one comes with asterisk alert.

It has come through as sold on Zealty but Zolo just put it back up for 759k

If all things come through on face value then it is already being flipped after the previous owner took a hit.

The details…

1275 Hamilton st,Vancouver.

Paid 805k December 2017

Sold 736 December 2017

Originally asking 799k

Assessment 734k

So if confirmed in the coming months these guys lost 110k

I did a post about a condo the other day that lost 40k straight numbers, 100k after expenses.

Someone remarked that they were disappointed.

What’s to be disappointed about?

This is what sets me apart.

Nothing is fabricated,the numbers are the numbers.

I can show 500k/750k/1 million losses on detached properties and 100k losses on condos,remember these are downtown condos as well.

I can show 300k losses on condos but for that you have to get into the 3 million plus range.

I can only show what’s going on.

I refuse to fabricate…

M44BC

2017-11-28 : $799,000
2018-10-12 : $780,000

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/1275-hamilton-street/407

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Feel free to make a small donation for cancer research.

Flop For Fox Fund…

http://www.terryfox.org/get-involved/ways-to-give/

#38 TurnerNation on 01.11.19 at 7:49 pm

Corporate America faces an existential crisis:
Buy the pull backs
or Pull the buy-backs.

(I should be writing headlines)

#39 Oh oh on 01.11.19 at 7:52 pm

Damn .Garth you have uncanny ability to mush .

Down week for the markets next week . Friggen lock . I’ll remind ya next Friday . Thanks for nothin !

#40 WUL on 01.11.19 at 8:01 pm

#11 CF on 01.11.19 at 6:24 pm

I write to extend the same positive sentiments that Garth and others are expressing about your most powerful comment, your extreme courage and caring. My tears are still welling. I lived through this type of thing in 2018. Thank you, WUL

#41 Ace Goodheart on 01.11.19 at 8:03 pm

“Anyone who pumped money into financial assets in late December when the comments section was a sea of nausea and spittle was a genius. ”

Thanks Garth. No one’s ever called me that before, but I’ll take it.

#42 For those about to flop... on 01.11.19 at 8:28 pm

Recent sale report.

My buddy Yvrmc remarked that prices in North Vancouver are slowly coming down and this is a new house that I promised I would report the outcome as it seems like a good barometer.

The details…

1429 Hope Rd,North Vancouver

Paid 1.80 October 2017

Sold 1.68 December 2018

Originally asking 1.98

These guys had a relatively new product and still took a 200k beating.

I was reading an article the other day and it stated if you bought in 2016 and have to sell now you will take a loss.

Pretty broad brush that one.

Lots of people escaped in 2017, some with decent profits,some with Pink Draws.

More losses in 2018 and more Pink Draws,less escapes.

A Pink Draw, remember, is when someone sells a property for 5-7% more than what they paid for it.

Enough of these and the market stays buoyant, but no real money is being made after expenses.

These people held this property long enough possibly to qualify for an exemption.

No one is exempt from what is going on in Vancouver…

M44BC

https://www.zolo.ca/north-vancouver-real-estate/1429-hope-road

#43 Arto on 01.11.19 at 8:36 pm

Garth, I bet you do your Yoga in Lululemon wearing Cowboy boots.
I’d actually pay to see that as probably would most Blogdogs.

P.S. Good luck to CF

#44 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.11.19 at 8:37 pm

@#116 Don
“Was that building across the street from the law courts.?”
+++++
No, the one I’m thinking about was in the business district.
I know the building you’re talking about.
I managed a few office buildings in the downtown and that “condo” building was always being visited by the cops.
Vancouver cops are “mediators” now. They rarely seem to arrest or charge people. I would have rampant computer thefts in the late 1990’s from the office buildings. We would have the perps ON FILM carrying the stolen pc’s out the door. Call the cops….and IF they showed up…they would shrug and say “So? What do you want us to do about it?”
Completely uninterested.
So I handed out the color photos to all my tenants told them to call us or security if the guy showed up.
2 weeks later bozo boy shows up WEARING THE SAME CLOTHES.
I stopped him on a floor, handed him a photo of himself carrying the previous computer out the front doors and said, “leave”.
He left. Never came back.
We handed his photo to our security company and said hand it out with “This photographic likeness” ( lawyers helped with that one) MAY be a suspect in recent thefts.
The guy was spotted all over the dwntwn core and shut down.
The police? Useless. Unless you hand them a criminal on a silver platter. (which I did but thats another story)

I dont no why anyone would want to be a police officer now with all the BS involved….

#45 Where's The Money Greedeau? on 01.11.19 at 8:38 pm

I just heard on the local radio that there would be no rate hikes and the market is going to be tepid. So who to believe?
So much wind blowing every which way.
Why do I even listen to the airwaves at all.
I’m going to crack a beer and watch a punch-up on Letterkenny.
That’ll teach ’em!

#46 Barb on 01.11.19 at 8:44 pm

#11 CF

How inconsequential our complaints are when we learn of your situation.
Peace to you.

#47 acdel on 01.11.19 at 8:45 pm

#11 CF

Dam, too young for that crap! Sorry! Enjoy every minute with your loved ones’.

My best to you and your family!

#48 Oilaphant on 01.11.19 at 8:49 pm

Garth’s not a big fan at all, but I can happily confirm the same has been true in the legal cannabis sector.

#49 BC_Doc on 01.11.19 at 8:52 pm

#11 CF— Keeping you and my family in my thoughts and prayers.

GT— You’re a fellow yogi? Awesome— there is nothing like the 26 and 2 sequence to help focus the mind and tune out the noise. Hope you’ve found a good local heated studio there in the Maritimes!

#50 Russ on 01.11.19 at 8:57 pm

Garth,

I blush.

Any day you call me a genius is a good day. Thank you.

There was certainly a bit o’ luck in a nice deployment of funds. We accepted Manulife’s generous offer of a 25% premium to relieve them of obligations of a “guaranteed investment” product that hurt them real bad many years ago.
All that was sitting in the account awaiting balancing decisions during the Boxing Week sale.

I also had some cash in my hobby account that was easy to put towards some PRF etfs.

Cheers, R

#51 avocado latte on 01.11.19 at 9:00 pm

And they called me crazy for buying prefs on margin… The yield covers my margin interest and gives me a little extra, PLUS I get that nice dividend tax credit, and probably 5-15% gains when I sell.

Maybe I should do the same with altagas?

#52 akashic record on 01.11.19 at 9:02 pm

#11 CF

G_d bless you!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xflJeA4tVW4&list=PLfpE4J2I7Zeqfzc9SOvO4Bfe6n04gjvtD

#53 For those about to flop... on 01.11.19 at 9:05 pm

Howmuch has just updated GDP per capita numbers from last year.

For full visualization click on link…

M44BC

“Visualizing Citizen’s Prosperity in Every Country in the World 2018.

GDP per capita is a critical metric for understanding the economy.

It’s a measure of a country’s economic output that takes into account the number of people who live there. GDP per capita takes the gross domestic product and divides it by the number of people who live there. It’s the best measurement of a country’s standard of living. It tells you how prosperous a country feels to each of its citizens.

We gathered the data for our series of maps from the International Monetary Fund. The color corresponds to the GDP per capita in each country, with dark green being the richest at over $100,000 and dark pink the poorest at less than $1,000. A few countries are shaded light gray because data were not available.

We wanted to break down this world map in a new light to really unearth the vast differences of wealth it displays. So, we added an additional dimension of size for each region also corresponding to per capita GDP, letting you quickly grasp a comparison between countries apples-to-apples. Of course, GDP per capita doesn’t necessarily indicate high levels of disposable income, but our approach does let you easily see where the wealthiest countries are.

In North America, it’s no surprise to see the United States in dark green at the head of the pack ($62,518). That’s one of the highest in the world, and it’s especially impressive given how over 328 million people live in the U.S. Canada also stands out as a rich nation ($46,733), but take a look at Puerto Rico ($32,004) and Aruba ($24,881) compared to the rest of the Caribbean and Central America. These countries are poor compared to the U.S. and Canada, but they’re several magnitudes wealthier than places like Nicaragua ($2,127) and Honduras ($2,829).

South America looks like an explosion of small pink countries, indicating a relatively low GDP per capita. Uruguay is the most well-off ($17,380), followed by Chile ($16,143). Compare these countries to Brazil ($9,127), which usually gets a lot of press attention for the overall size of its economy. Our visualization puts things in perspective that even if Brazil’s economy is critical to the world, the people who live there are relatively poor compared to their neighbors, much less North America.

The situation across the pond is eye-opening. There is a clear and obvious division between the wealthy, large and green countries in the West and the poor, small and pink countries in the East. Just compare Luxembourg ($113,954) with Moldova ($3,227). This tells you a lot about where the economic power lies on the European continent.

There is likewise a stark illustration of inequality Down Under. Australia ($56,698) boasts by far the highest GDP per capita, followed by New Zealand ($41,616), both of which are developed economies. The rest of Oceania, however, contains a large number of relatively poor countries.

Our visualization is perhaps most appealing when it comes to Asia because of the way it distorts the countries. Geographically, Russia and China dominate the entire continent, but not when it comes to GDP per capita (a measly $10,950 and $9,633, respectively). The countries with real economic clout when you consider the size of their populations are all located further south, especially in the Middle East. Macao, a gambling outpost technically part of China, is incredibly wealthy by these standards ($81,585).

And finally, there’s Africa, the all-around poorest continent on the planet. There isn’t a single country over $20,000. There are several below $1,000, including Malawi ($349), Burundi ($307) and South Sudan ($307).

It’s hard to comprehend just how enormous the disparities on our maps are. If the U.S. has a GDP per capita of $62,518 and Burundi only has $307, what does that mean? In short, all things being equal and when adjusted for population, the economy produces 203 times more for Americans.”

https://howmuch.net/articles/gdp-per-capita-2018

#54 Gravy Train on 01.11.19 at 9:18 pm

#3 Garth’s wrong on 01.11.19 at 5:45 pm
“Yes, spouses can have 2 different residences! [You’re] wrong, Garth lol

Ask the CRA. – Garth

No need to ask the CRA. For 1982 and later years, Garth is right. (See link below.)
https://www.canada.ca/en/revenue-agency/services/tax/individuals/topics/about-your-tax-return/tax-return/completing-a-tax-return/personal-income/line-127-capital-gains/principal-residence-other-real-estate/designating-a-principal-residence/you-have-than-principal-residence.html

For years before 1982, you’re right, but special rules apply. (See link below for Income Tax Folio S1-F3-C2, Principal Residence.)
https://www.canada.ca/en/revenue-agency/services/tax/technical-information/income-tax/income-tax-folios-index/series-1-individuals/folio-3-family-unit-issues/income-tax-folio-s1-f3-c2-principal-residence.html

#55 Nonplused on 01.11.19 at 9:18 pm

“Moral: never, ever read the comments section. If you do, like me, wear rubber.”

The comments section is where all the diverse thoughts are. Some better than others I will admit but that is how conversations go. Well, unless someone wants to be a bully.

Anyway my guesstimation would be that 95% of the commentators agree 95% with your message so I don’t see why the hate over 10%. If you were 100% right you’d own Amazon and still be losing half. Yikes if you want to tell your sons something about the world look at this story. Divorce can be much worse than a market collapse. Does Bizos maintain control? Or is there a new sheriff in town?

Anyway the graph of US household debt is good for your argument, but I’ve seen some graphs on what is happening to Canadian households on the zero and it is a totally different story. We are screwed.

#56 Lead Paint on 01.11.19 at 9:36 pm

Global real estate hot spots hit hard by market shift:

“The total volume of detached home sales fell almost 17 per cent in the Greater Toronto Area in 2018 over 2017, and the average price for all detached homes sold last year was down 4.4 per cent. Overall sales in Toronto were their weakest since 2008.”

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-global-real-estate-hot-spots-hit-hard-by-market-shift/

#57 yvrmc on 01.11.19 at 9:45 pm

Flop… the value of your posts is the accuracy and integrity with which you post them…. stay the course bud…

#58 Where's The Money Greedeau? on 01.11.19 at 10:01 pm

RE: #11 CF on 01.11.19 at 6:24 pm
I battled the big C and came out 6 feet up, be it with some war wounds.
I hope your journey is painless and you get to say all your g’byes and have enough time to accomplish most of your bucket list.

#59 45north on 01.11.19 at 10:06 pm

Fish: Merged hydro companies in northwestern Ontario now known as Synergy North

from your link: Bill amounts won’t be effected, Mace said. The most immediate change will be the change in their logo.

but there’s no mention of the biggest player Hydro One which supplies electricity to these two remote towns

significant facts:

Thunder Bay Hydro employs 130 people and has 50,000 customers
Kenora Hydro employs 14 people and serves 5,600 customers.

by way of comparison Hydro Ottawa employs 700 people and has 330,000 customers

I’m guessing this is a cry for help from Kenora which feels intimidated by Hydro One

#60 Gravy Train on 01.11.19 at 10:07 pm

Moral: never, ever read the comments section.… — Garth

#33 Figmund Sreud on 01.11.19 at 7:30 pm
“… as a rule, how did they all reach unanomousity [sic]?” Please don’t coin a word when there’s already an acceptable alternative: unanimity. What you wrote was truly painful to read; you’re starting to write as badly as Smokey, and reading his writing is just cruel and unusual punishment! :)

#61 Eddie on 01.11.19 at 10:07 pm

The Dow is over 700 points lower than it closed at the end of December 2017! What you are seeing now is NOT an indicator of the coming year, but manipulation, abetted by flash computers, painting a pretty picture to keep buyers in! Nothing has changed, not the historical debt on all levels, not trade wars, not economic inequality, not Europe’s economic problems,etc.! It’s all still there. As are some Black Swans, waiting in the wings and 1929 is right around the corner.

#62 45north on 01.11.19 at 10:07 pm

hey what happened?
Error 520 Ray ID: 497c5716ea6027e0 • 2019-01-12 02:54:44 UTC
Web server is returning an unknown error

What happened?
There is an unknown connection issue between Cloudflare and the origin web server. As a result, the web page can not be displayed.

what’s cloud flare?

https://www.cloudflare.com/learning/what-is-cloudflare/

#63 Chester on 01.11.19 at 10:08 pm

Like all Liberals Trump owns you. He consumes all your thoughts, comments and actions. He truly is brilliant, your not.

#64 not 1st on 01.11.19 at 10:10 pm

Trump is prepping for 2020? Thought he was done in 2019.

Which country are you talking about Garth. If its the US you are right on track. If its Canada, you are way off base. We will go into the a skid this year. No pipelines will be built, ever again.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/indigenous/coastal-gaslink-pipeline-neb-review-1.4971829

And maybe you didn’t hear, TransCanada changed its name to drop Canada from its corporate label. Now called TC Energy which will focus on energy investments in the US and Mexico. Head office will be next to go. That’s all on Trudeau.

Notice how Amazon was toying with Vancouver and Toronto. Look how fast they high tailed it out of here once they say our political environment. Trump isn’t chaos, he does exactly what he says he will.

Also, notice the Liberals infrastructure bank is a bust as well. Funny how they wanted foreign investment but then created an environment where nobody wants to touch this country.

#65 Kelly on 01.11.19 at 10:16 pm

“In fact, 2019 is expected to deliver a year of surprises”.

Garth

Now who can argue with you there Garth.
Not me.

However, we may differ on the surprises.

#66 MF on 01.11.19 at 10:17 pm

#11 CF on 01.11.19 at 6:24 pm

Your comment struck a cord with me since I am also a 35 year old guy. Your comment puts everything into perspective, and reminds us how trivial most of our worries and complaints are.

My thoughts and prayers are with you as well.

MF

#67 BCWally on 01.11.19 at 10:25 pm

Thanks for being there Garth. I signed up with you guys in late December (just by chance) and went risk on with you guys by the 24th.
Printing those words of confidence helps a lot, that was looking somewhat like 2008-2009 mid December. You reminded me that this was no more than a confidence issue and not a credit crisis, although credit tightening may have some future effects yet.
I agree with you on the Canadian market in that I think it is time for it to rock. Looking at the immediate gains from Dec. 26th on the TSX has been noticed.

#68 The real Kip (Ret.) on 01.11.19 at 10:28 pm

“Canadian crude oil prices have rebounded.”

Some rebound. Another $10 higher and Alberta will stop losing money on every barrel they sell and maybe actually make money. Oh well, enjoy the ride.

#69 yvrguy on 01.11.19 at 10:29 pm

I emplore stop msm speaking of housing market like their stocks.

In the article below they mention condos outperforming detached, as if they generate profit. Since when do houses perform anything? Maybe a song and a dance?

Better sell that detached and buy a condo now… Don’t wanna get left behind in paper gains!

Hold my drink while I go barf.

——

While sales activity dropped for detached homes, condominiums are still performing well in the local market.

“While we’ve seen a significant reduction in the number of sales across all housing types, Condominiums continue to outperform all other housing types in Greater Vancouver,” said Randy Ryalls, general manager of Royal LePage Sterling Realty, in a statement.

https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/royal-lepage-metro-vancouver-housing-report-january-2019

#70 Eddie on 01.11.19 at 10:32 pm

This year so far is the best head fake move of stock market in history.The market is now entirely manipulated and divorced from the economic reality on the ground.
The stock market is down 3,000 points since October,The Dow Jones Industrial Average . And it will crash this year… End of story. :)

#71 Long-Time Lurker on 01.11.19 at 10:34 pm

#11 CF on 01.11.19 at 6:24 pm

“My Soul is from elsewhere,
I’m sure of that,
and I intend to end up there.”

— Rumi

>Here, Smokey. More hope for you.

https://denver.cbslocal.com/2019/01/10/coors-light-golden-brewery-andrew-slavonic/

101-Year-Old Believes Secret To Longevity Is Daily Coors Light

By Michael Abeyta January 10, 2019 at 6:00 pm

…Andrew is 101 years old. He was an Air Force gunner in World War II. He’s a family man but one his favorite things in the world these days is his four o’clock Coors Light.

“I just love to drink it… that’s all.”

He says he’s been drinking his daily beer for too many years to count. It all started when he was much younger.

“I was mowing my lawn at about four o’clock. When I was finished with the lawn, I’d have my Coors Light. That’s when it hit the spot.”

Andrew thinks it might just be the secret to his longevity, “I can sit here and drink this all day it’s like a medicine.”….

#72 Bob Drury on 01.11.19 at 10:35 pm

Again you show your Trump derangement. The stock
market this time went up and down because of the fear
the Feds were going to push rates up no matter what was happening economically. When they were called out because they had no facts to proceed with the increases the Feds backed off. If you think giving China unfettered control of manufacturing is the way to go maybe the next job to be outsourced will be yours Garth. Why do we pay you guys 1-2% of our net worth maybe we could go to China or India and get just as good performance on our returns. Maybe if the investor doesn’t make his return your percentage should go down. No Skin in the game no concern.

#73 toadweevil on 01.11.19 at 10:42 pm

#11 CF your not alone, Eva Cassidy left way to soon, too. Way to stand tall. All my best for you and your family!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xXBNlApwh0c

#74 Foreign ownership new ownership numbers out on 01.11.19 at 10:43 pm

Foreign Ownership of New Condos Completing:

Vancouver CMA = 14%
UEL = 18%
Vancouver 15%
Burnaby = 15%
Richmond = 21%
Coquitlam = 22%

#75 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.11.19 at 10:45 pm

#55 Nonplused on 01.11.19 at 9:18 pm
“Moral: never, ever read the comments section. If you do, like me, wear rubber.”

The comments section is where all the diverse thoughts are. Some better than others I will admit but that is how conversations go. Well, unless someone wants to be a bully.

Anyway my guesstimation would be that 95% of the commentators agree 95% with your message so I don’t see why the hate over 10%. If you were 100% right you’d own Amazon and still be losing half. Yikes if you want to tell your sons something about the world look at this story. Divorce can be much worse than a market collapse. Does Bizos maintain control? Or is there a new sheriff in town?

Anyway the graph of US household debt is good for your argument, but I’ve seen some graphs on what is happening to Canadian households on the zero and it is a totally different story. We are screwed.
—————
Agree 100%.
Garth,
The comment section is your bread and butter.
Shut it down and you’ll be a lonely, bored whatever.

#76 yorkville renter on 01.11.19 at 11:01 pm

did the types of credit products change in the US?
longer ams to drop the ratio?

#77 MaxBerniersShorts on 01.11.19 at 11:07 pm

Looks like the property hawkers at Royal LePage are practising their turd polishing again:
https://biv.com/article/2019/01/vancouver-home-prices-drop-during-q4-amid-significant-reduction-sales

#78 Drill Baby Drill on 01.11.19 at 11:14 pm

“portfolio managers I take hot yoga with” That is a visual I must somehow get out of my head.

#79 ANON on 01.11.19 at 11:38 pm

Investorz Who Ignored Da’ Noize

These are not the droids you are looking for, and credits will do fine, in blog lingo :)
*snickers*
IMHO, that was the last chance to sell (climb down a bit from Exter’s Pyramid). We’ll see…

#80 Terry on 01.11.19 at 11:40 pm

“Anyone who pumped money into financial assets in late December when the comments section was a sea of nausea and spittle was a genius.”

Thank-you Garth……….that was me from October right through to the end of December. Hurray for Me!

Ka-Ching!………and Keep Buying More!

#81 She's a looker on 01.11.19 at 11:54 pm

Disagree, Canada has already entered recession, Poloz confirmed that. Saying otherwise is Trudeau propaganda. Companies that provide solace to investors during recession are the dividend payers. Companies lay off workers and report higher internals, simple. Don’t forget that that the American money that’s pouring in to re elect Trudeau as an anti Trump device. There’s a war brewing the left has to win in Canada to keep globalism appearances up. The $C is slated to collapse, what’s good about that. Trudeau is spending like a drunken sailor good times or bad. That’s not sustainable. Hoping the entire TSX recovery can be captured with a shotgun is desperate dreaming. Most portfolio managers who continue to underperform will be replaced. Brave words won’t save Canada, Trudeau and Butts are an example of that. Employment numbers are awful, except in the ghettos where Trudeau hopes to harvest votes.

#82 Ace Goodheart on 01.12.19 at 12:42 am

“Trump has long avoided using the Oval Office as a backdrop for his speeches, telling aides that previous presidents looked stilted and “flat” in the standard, straight-ahead camera angle. But he was persuaded that the seriousness of the moment warranted the Oval Office for his speech to the nation this week about the fight over the border wall.

But since Tuesday night’s address, Trump has complained that he looked lifeless and boring”

He thinks it’s a reality TV show. He has no idea he’s actually running a country.

#83 Smoking Man on 01.12.19 at 12:49 am

DELETED

#84 Smoking Man on 01.12.19 at 1:23 am

DELETED

#85 Where's The Money Greedeau? on 01.12.19 at 1:44 am

Re: #11 CF on 01.11.19 at 6:24 pm

Godspeed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tk-VK4ZRmjs

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zTefdj38ad4

#86 Kim on 01.12.19 at 2:10 am

#11 CF

Your love, compassion and bravery shone through with such bravery that it went straight to the heart and made the tears flow.

It also made me finally ‘get’ the true practical benefits of following a similar investment plan for my family. Until your message, I was really wearying from resisting the pressure to buy in YVR, and I was thinking of biting the bullet and getting in big debt just to put an end to years of wondering about RE.

Thank you so much for sharing your message, it made a big impression. I so pray that you and your wife have many more wonderful moments ahead.
Kim

#87 expat on 01.12.19 at 7:03 am

never be afraid to tale profits.
They are only profits if you take them

At some point everyone must sell for various reasons.

A retired person, for instance, who is converting their profits from 30-50 years of profits and growth into monthly income from their investments for instance needs stability – not growth.

I find it disingenuous to say you must always be fully invested.

Retirement these days lasts 20-30 years. Of course you need to stay invested, unless you already have millions. – Garth

#88 expat on 01.12.19 at 7:08 am

—–More importantly, portfolios are unlikely to suffer when there’s no recession. Like now. — Garth

Garth the markets are forward seeing not backward.
The markets are saying recession ahead in my opinion.

Not an end to the long term Bull just predicting a recession.
How does one play this?
Take some off the table
Only a pig gets slaughtered

Markets actually have a poor track record at such forecasting. In any case, a properly balanced portfolio is one you can ignore during an economic downturn. – Garth

#89 David Driven on 01.12.19 at 7:20 am

Trump stamping out the Communist menace is good for us all. Obama opened the door for Islamic extremism to flourish, Trump is going to let them kill each other instead of American soldiers, smart. Trudeau will flood Canada with bodies for bites. He’s says they’re no different than immigrants if old, nobodies fooled by that.

https://business.financialpost.com/opinion/lawrence-solomon-remember-trumps-supposedly-lose-lose-trade-war-hes-winning-chinas-losing

Trump is saving Western Civilization for your children’s sake. Trudeau is the enemy. And don’t be fooled, he’s demanding respect after what he complains are death threats, this is gaming the weak kneed Canadian to cower. The threat to Canada is not Trudeau’s assassination, it’s his re-election.

#90 Dolce Vita on 01.12.19 at 7:43 am

For what it’s worth, I updated the Toronto Avg. Home Price Chart for the years 1969-2018, adjusted for inflation (prices in 2018 $, TREB data, adjusted using the BoC Inflation Calculator).

The chart also shows the long term Average Price Trendline (red line):

https://i.imgur.com/0YST700.png

Some quick observations:

1. Better to have put that money in the S&P from 1969-2018 instead of in a home, on average (S&P CAGR also adjusted for inflation, 2018 $, so as to compare apples to apples).

This fact ought to MAKE YOU HAPPY Garth.

2. If history repeats, the average price drop will be at least 28% (Peak 2017 to Trend price 2017) from $822,681 to $588,616.

3. The average price drop is usually worse as it “undershoots” the long term average price trendline (for anywhere from 7 to 20 years, the time for price recovery to return to what it should be…Human Nature = Despair? Fear?).

4. R squared value of about 0.75 considered pretty good.

———————————————————

As for any naysayers, go make your own chart if you don’t like this one (good luck with that).

Buonanotte.

#91 Millennial Realist on 01.12.19 at 8:33 am

“Moral: never, ever read the comments section. If you do, like me, wear rubber.”

Right on Garth!

Here’s another reason.

CNN reports: People over the age of 65 share fake news stories on Facebook more than any other age group…

https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1084072779782242305

Now it makes more sense why so many soon-to-be-irrelevant Paleo Boomers come to this comments section with their ridiculous alt-right conspiracy nonsense and vapid justifications of top down capitalism.

It’s a desperate last attempt for this withering crowd to whimper and huddle together before they go extinct!

Boomers, climb aboard the change.

Or be run over by it.

#92 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.12.19 at 8:54 am

@#90 Millenial Surrealist
‘It’s a desperate last attempt for this withering crowd to whimper and huddle together before they go extinct!’

******

Well its good to know your parents reinstated your internet “privileges” in the New Year.

As for Millenials inheiriting the future (aprox $1 Trillion in Boomer savings if financial accounts are correct)….please…
Before you bite the hand that literally feeds you now,(and for many years into your undeserving future), you have to learn how to tie your shoes, or fix a leaky tap, or change a headlight,……. before you can take the money and “run”.

Speaking of running.
Millenial “hero” T2’s is about to reinvent himself once again for the election circuit.
Hopefully he has been spending time with speech therapists and more experienced drama coaches to eradicate his annoying (huffing and wheezing)” ahhh, errr, ummm”, folksy style of conversation before he heads out on the stump circuit.

But , I if I may be bold enough to suggest another way for T2 to be “all things to all people”.

He could hire this doppleganger to cover the West Coast of Canada while he’s busy back east showering all those wavering political seats with wheelbarrels of taxpayer cash…..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HuiJqiXjfLE

#93 neo on 01.12.19 at 9:11 am

Okay, so what happens when the 10 year is way over 3% again? It’s way under 3% and the stock market has recovered as it has gone down. That’s all we are seeing here. This has nothing to do with corporate profits or anything else.

Equities and the performance of the companies they represent are not correlated? That’s funny. – Garth

#94 dharma bum on 01.12.19 at 9:35 am

Garth, are you planning to write a new book any time soon?
I’ve always enjoyed reading your books.
Hopefully, you will have another book published in the near future, and the cover will have a glossy photo on it of you, in your yoga outfit, sitting on your Harley Davidson, with your glistening washboard abs fully exposed.
I can’t wait!
Oh…and please make signed copies available for all the blog dogs.
Thank you.

#95 KLNR on 01.12.19 at 10:11 am

@#75 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.11.19 at 10:45 pm
#55 Nonplused on 01.11.19 at 9:18 pm
“Moral: never, ever read the comments section. If you do, like me, wear rubber.”

The comments section is where all the diverse thoughts are. Some better than others I will admit but that is how conversations go. Well, unless someone wants to be a bully.

Anyway my guesstimation would be that 95% of the commentators agree 95% with your message so I don’t see why the hate over 10%. If you were 100% right you’d own Amazon and still be losing half. Yikes if you want to tell your sons something about the world look at this story. Divorce can be much worse than a market collapse. Does Bizos maintain control? Or is there a new sheriff in town?

Anyway the graph of US household debt is good for your argument, but I’ve seen some graphs on what is happening to Canadian households on the zero and it is a totally different story. We are screwed.
—————
Agree 100%.
Garth,
The comment section is your bread and butter.
Shut it down and you’ll be a lonely, bored whatever.
_____________________________________

LOLOL, if the comments section was shut down its more likely that you and folks like nonplused etc would be the lonely, bored whatevers.

#96 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.12.19 at 10:18 am

@#116 jess
“written by the 18th-century British proto-feminist Mary Wollstonecraft, is one of the earliest works of feminist philosophy….”
+++++

Snuffle, snort, yaaaaaaaawn….

I’m sorry, I fell asleep.
What were we discussing again?

#97 Basil Fawlty on 01.12.19 at 10:29 am

Scotiabank says: “It would be unusual to get a pronounced recession amidst evidence of very healthy household balance sheets”.

1. Heaven forbid we have a mispronounced recession.

2. How can the bank say this when 40% of North Americans don’t have $400, for a family emergency?

#98 baloney Sandwitch on 01.12.19 at 10:35 am

I just came back from India and growth there is accelerating. I am convinced its the new china for the next 20 years. The economy is growing at over 7% and accelerating.

Given that stock market value grows 2 to 3 times faster than the economy you are looking at 15% + annual compounded growth rate for the next decade.

#99 Ace Goodheart on 01.12.19 at 10:41 am

“Equities and the performance of the companies they represent are not correlated? That’s funny. – Garth”

Interestingly enough, it has actually been that way since about October 2018. It has been very weird indeed. Usually a robust earnings declaration results in a happy plumping up of a companies’ market cap. This past three months’ that has not happened. The result is that you could purchase companies on sale, whose earnings and balance sheet positions, did not match their share prices. The metrics got all wonky for a while. Things seem to be getting back to normal now.

They always get back to normal. – Garth

#100 Shawn on 01.12.19 at 11:10 am

For the 1st time in a long time I think the TSX is a buy. I also think small caps are undervalued relative to large caps on both sides of the border.

VCN for the total Canadian market is a great ETF.

#101 Prairieboy43 on 01.12.19 at 11:18 am

God Bless In your fight CF. Cancer is nasty disease. It is an unfair disease. Children, healthy humans are not Immune. Doctors, health professionals providing best healthcare Canada can provide. Combatting this nasty disease through Chemotherapy, Radiation Therapy, and Immune therapy. Your fight is shared young man. God Bless. PB43

#102 Alram on 01.12.19 at 11:20 am

#11 – CF

Sending you respect, love and peace on your journey. Good luck.

#103 For those about to flop... on 01.12.19 at 11:30 am

Pink Snow falling in New Westminster.

When I got back from my holiday Zolo had cleared a few properties as sold and this was one of them.

When this happens I move them over to a folder called “Waiting for clearance”, where they sit until I get my grubby hands on the gory details.

This house was one of them but something must have gone wrong as it is back on the market.

I once tried to report this kind of happening in a post called “Deal fell through” but due to being unable to add much more information to what happened because of all the secrecy,I’ll just stick with the tried and true Pink a Snow reports.

This scenario used to happen occasionally but now it appears to be a lot more prevalent as the correction deepens.

The details…

507 Amess Street, New Westminster

paid 1.02 March 2017

Originally asking 1.28

Now asking 1.09

assessment 1.04

So as you can see by my notes below,they keep coming back to the 1.09 number to try and get the buyer to pay for the closing costs.

New West is probably better of than most jurisdictions but it’s still Amess…

M44BC

Nov 3:$1,288,888
May 18: $1,099,888
Change: – 189000.00 -15%

https://www.zolo.ca/new-westminster-real-estate/507-amess-street

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDAzVUxWWA==

#104 Yuus bin Haad on 01.12.19 at 11:34 am

If Trump were one of a magician’s techniques, he’d be “misdirection”.

#105 Doug in London on 01.12.19 at 11:41 am

I was one who went on a frantic buying binge when stocks and ETFs were on sale just before Christmas. Yes, what an awesome Christmas present! Thank you very much, jolly ole St. Nick!

I don’t know why there was such negativity in the comments section back in those good old days. Just yesterday, on the way back from Boler Mountain ski hill I saw gasoline selling for 88 cents at one station. Being one who likes bargains, I went to fill my car up. It was a real beehive of activity, with other motorists eager to get a bargain. Now let’s go back in time to Boxing Day. I went for a walk in a shopping mall and have NEVER seen it so busy. I remember seeing a line up of people outside the Lululemon clothing store, as well as outside the Pandora jewellery store. Last Tuesday (cheapie Tuesday, when admission is cheaper) I went to see Bohemian Rhapsody and the theatre was FULL! Every last seat was taken. The above suggests a lot of people like bargains. So now I ask, why isn’t there the same amount of enthusiasm when stocks and ETFs are on sale?

#106 Axehead on 01.12.19 at 11:49 am

#11 CF.

Thank you for sharing. May I suggest a book by G. Edward Griffin titled “World Without Cancer”.

#107 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.12.19 at 12:00 pm

@#Flop
” where they sit until I get my grubby hands on the gory details.”

*****
No one does “gory Real Estate entrails” better than you Flop.
Keep it coming.
We can handle “Amess”.

#108 Gravy Train on 01.12.19 at 12:00 pm

Since Christmas Eve – just a couple of weeks ago – the stock market has gained 10%. – Garth

I don’t claim to be able to time the market, Garth, but I did exchange braindead GICs for equity funds on Dec. 24. (Just got lucky.)

My rate of return for the last 18 days on the latest investments is just over 8.12%. On an annualized basis—assuming no further pullbacks for the year—it works out to 164.75%. :)

If there are any further pullbacks this year, I’ll buy more equity funds. I only exchanged about 10% of my dry powder (GICs and money markets), because I thought there’d be further plops in stock prices. (There still may be.)

My current asset mix—excluding real estate—is 81/19 equities/cash.

Anyone who pumped money into financial assets in late December when the comments section was a sea of nausea and spittle was a genius. – Garth

I suppose I’ll join the self-congratulatory chorus, and pat myself on the back. :)

Hardest hit were those who sold, turning paper losses into real ones – especially inside an RRSP or TFSA where losses cannot be deducted from gains. – Garth

I wonder if that genius AB Boxster sold off his equity position—esp. maple. He was sure bellyaching last year about the equity portion of his portfolio. Since Christmas Eve, maple did as well as—if not better than—U.S. stocks.

#27 yvrguy on 01.11.19 at 7:09 pm
“Dumped my last piddly position in maple today. We have no real economy, direction or business friendly policy.”

My yoga guys think this is the year the Canadian market struggles from its funk and actually outperforms Wall Street.… All bullish for maple. – Garth

Garth, don’t bother trying to convince the deplorables that maple will do well. Their sell-off may drive prices lower, making maple all the more attractive. I love it when ignorant deplorables base their investment strategy on ideology rather than facts. :)

#109 MaxBerniersShorts on 01.12.19 at 12:05 pm

#89 David Driven

You should change your name to David Drivel.

#110 Dolce Vita on 01.12.19 at 12:31 pm

#103 For those about to flop…

You can see that place from SkyTrain. Thought it looked familiar. Weird looking homes in that stretch.

A-Mess is correct.

#111 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.12.19 at 12:37 pm

Well it’s good to know our Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland is “doubling down” on photo ops in an election year…..

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/01/saudi-teen-rahaf-alqunun-due-arrive-canada-asylum-190112054905094.html

I’m just surprised Prime(Photo Op) Minister T2 wasnt there holding another bouquet of flowers as well.

#112 jess on 01.12.19 at 12:52 pm

feynman traps

The Exaggerated Promise of So-Called Unbiased Data Mining | WIRED
https://www.wired.com/story/the-exaggerated-promise-of-data-mining/

============================
https://pulitzercenter.org/projects/japans-demographic-reckoning

#113 Cheap Gas on 01.12.19 at 1:12 pm

#105 Doug in London – Gas Buddy has several stations selling at 88.1 in London, so not really a bargain eh.

#114 Joe on 01.12.19 at 1:13 pm

-knock on wood

-CF -be well

#115 april on 01.12.19 at 1:17 pm

yvr guy $69 – been watching the White Rock condo market and nothing has moved in months, so no, condos are not outperforming even in Vancouver. Don’t heed the spin coming from the RE industry.

#116 Alberta Gas on 01.12.19 at 1:34 pm

Calgary 86.4, and one would think it might be cheaper, but not too bad for a fill up.

#117 LivinLarge on 01.12.19 at 2:12 pm

“How can the bank say this when 40% of North Americans don’t have $400, for a family emergency?”…simple, 40% of the population are always living pay cheque to pay cheque. All is normal in the 100 acre wood.

#118 CF on 01.12.19 at 2:19 pm

Wow, I didn’t expect so much attention! Thanks to everyone for your kind words and support. Oddly, sometimes the words of strangers get to me more than that of friends and family, possibly because it just shows how we all share so much in common and fight mostly the same battles.

No matter what you do in life, cherish your time and loved ones. You really don’t know how long it will last. I’m happy that we didn’t put our life on hold while we planned for the future, and we have many happy memories. I wouldn’t trade my life for anyone else’s.

Best wishes to all of you. I hope you have a great year.

#119 DON on 01.12.19 at 2:52 pm

#11 CF on 01.11.19 at 6:24 pm

Garth, thanks for all your advice over the years. My wife and I have dumped as much as we can into our investments and avoided the insane Vancouver RE market, and your blog has helped reinforce that it is a good choice for us despite the cultlike mentality here.

I’m a young guy (35) dying of cancer and our investments are going to ensure the love of my life is taken care of comfortably, and can take her time getting back to a normal life after I go. Being stuck with a house would be a huge extra headache for her as she’ll want to downsize and possibly move away from here. I just wanted to let you know you’ve had a positive impact even in the worst of circumstances.

You are a courageous, loving person. Our thoughts are with you. I am humbled by your words. – Garth
**************************
CF

The only thing that mist my eyes up at this point in my life are the good selfless deeds of others.

You are a good man and I sincerely hope your circumstances change expectantly for the better. It appears that you and your wife are already richer than most, unconditional love, devotion and honor.

Salute!

#120 DON on 01.12.19 at 3:16 pm

#19 Nothingburgers on 01.11.19 at 6:47 pm

…..The story of rising rate hikes increasingly appears to be a nothing burger as there is no discernable dents in prices in any market other than the GTA. And certainly not singnificant price decreases following 100% or more in price increases since the alarm bells were sounded.

Owners who bought 3, 5 or 10 year years ago are way ahead of those that patiently waited, rented, and lived frugally hoping their smart predictions would materialize into a significant correction.

***********************

Ummm.

It’s not over….

Bought 2017 – underwater
Bought 2016 – underwater
Bought 2015 – underwater
Bought 2014 – underwater or soon to be underwater
Bought 2013 – underwater on the horizon.
Bought 2012 –
Bought 2011 –
Bought 2010 –
Bought 2009 –

And so on, until the average buyer can afford the average house remembering that lots of folks are currently over leveraged and in debt.

Have an acquaintance who bought a house in Greater Victoria area 4 years ago. I was led to believe that he and his wife had purchased the house. Now his Dad is telling them to get ready to move as the house needs to go up for sale for Spring. “Doesn’t my dad realize how his is putting us out and why doesn’t he sell his other land properties as he is single and can move much easier”. I remained quiet. But wanted to say…Maybe just maybe your Dad sees what’s coming and is trying to get out an protect his family…stop listening to your realtor buddy”.

#121 Barb on 01.12.19 at 3:53 pm

#118 CF on 01.12.19 at 2:19 pm

“…No matter what you do in life, cherish your time and loved ones. You really don’t know how long it will last. I’m happy that we didn’t put our life on hold while we planned for the future, and we have many happy memories. I wouldn’t trade my life for anyone else’s.

Best wishes to all of you. I hope you have a great year.”
————————————————-

CF, your reply to commenters reminds me of the rhetorical Q: why do the good die young?

If only the reverse were true…murderers, pedophiles, blood-lust politicians, animal abusers…

#122 Sprawl on 01.12.19 at 5:20 pm

Crazy Construction North America’ largest housing development Pickering’s Seaton around 40,000 stacked townhouses, is all ready on sale. http://s220234876.t.en25.com/e/es?s=220234876&e=315534&elqTrackId=08a28ffe7a67483f80c9cad2328918d2&elq=be3a2bbe8e8d49e59bdad5904dc33988&elqaid=3607&elqat=1