Fake

Sandra Muller photo

Just five or six weeks now until the saps start running, loins stir, hormones course and antlers twitch. Yep. Rutting season is coming. This is when realtors emerge from wintering in their A7s, blinking against the strengthening sun, gaunt from months of eating crow and stale listings, hungry for fresh commissions. Buyers emerge from the woods and sellers scan the horizon for offers. This is prime time for real estate, and after an awful 2018 season, the industry is hoping, praying and doing all it can to create a new FOMO.

Like Toronto broker John Pasalis, normally a smart guy except when (a) he has a meltdown at being mentioned on this blog and (b) he claims the market’s just had a gentle soft landing.

That’s the meme of late: things are cool. The correction’s over. It’s safe to buy again because price declines were modest and brief. Inventory is low. So are mortgage rates. Better offer soon, or end up in a cardboard box under the Bloor Street viaduct. Or, worse, at mom’s.

Says Pasalis in his recent and widely-quoted report:

  • “A soft landing in the housing market is a moderate and relatively balanced decline in house prices rather than a big 40-50% crash that some housing markets experience when bubbles burst.”
  • “Since July 2017 house prices have remained relatively stable aside from some seasonal volatility.”
  • “When we consider the fact that prices have only declined 18% from their peak, have been stable since July 2017 and there hasn’t been a big increase in inventory which is what we would expect for prices to fall further, there is little doubt that up to now the GTA has achieved a soft landing.”

Really? Is it over?

This pathetic blog has argued that the GTA, by far the largest housing market in Canada, is going to come out of the next year far less torched than Vancouver, Victoria or the oily places to the right. Local politicians are not (as in BC) trying to engineer a crash, taxes aren’t going nuts, the economy is more diverse and the population vastly higher with a lower ratio of new construction. YVR is pooched by every measure. The GTA not so much. But that doesn’t mean we can party like it’s 2017 this rutting season.

Seems our real estate dudes have a thin knowledge of what a soft landing means, and how bubbles end. No, they don’t pop. They deflate. US house prices, for example, peaked in mid-2006 before starting to fade as interest rates rose and lenders got into trouble. The bottom did not come for almost six years – in 2012. So to declare Toronto’s zenith in the spring of ’17 was all cleaned up by Christmas of ’18 is premature ebullition. Mr. Pasalis should seek treatment for that.

And what of the assertion that house prices ‘have remained stable’ since the summer of 2017?

Well, not exactly. As pointed out here last week the average 416 detached house, now changing hands at $1.145 million, was selling for $280,202 – or 19.6% more – just last May (of 2018). In fact that same property is 27.4% cheaper than in April of the previous year. These are substantial numbers. Add in the massive cost of buying in Toronto (the land transfer tax alone on that house is $38,750) and of selling (standard realtor commission would be $57,000), and the losses are Herculean.

So, no, prices haven’t been stable. The collapse in detacheds has been obfuscated by the rise in condos, however, and that gives Pasalis and his ilk some cover with the public. Thanks to the stress test, buyers have been shoved down the property ladder, creating more competition for entry-level housing, goosing the price of concrete boxes downtown.  But we all know that’s temporary housing. No fit place for a golden retriever.

Let’s remember, too, the GTA is a bloody big thing. Six million people. Hundreds of square kms. The price of McMansions in the exurbs plopped 20% to 30% a year ago, and has not recovered. Nor are they likely to anytime soon.

Meanwhile consider the economic facts. Wage gains suck, while consumer prices have been rising. Families are squeezed for disposable income, keeping them out of the housing market. The stress test has removed a fifth of buyers and shoved many more into lower price ranges. Household debt is at historic levels, and the fastest-growing segment of mortgage lenders is made up of the sub-prime, unregulated, high-rate guys.

And, mostly, why is the average crappy, unrenovated detached house on a dodgy street still priced at $1,145,000 when the median household income is $79,000? That doesn’t seem to be much of a correction, or to constitute a ‘soft landing’ with the market ready to take off again. And what of the fact most new buyers of such homes have a debt-to-income ratio of $450%, almost three times the norm? Seems precarious.

Hard to know who to believe these days. But it’s easier when you rule out those you can’t.

129 comments ↓

#1 Dissident on 01.09.19 at 3:50 pm

#25 Steve on 01.08.19 at 6:19 pm — Yup. Well said. Have an investment thesis. If a stock/equity doesn’t fit that thesis, ignore it.

Also, Trevor doesn’t know what he’s doing. He bought on hype and probably didn’t sell on news, as the saying goes, especially for weed stocks. Or worse yet, he bought on news.

He also committed the #1 faux pas – he didn’t diversify. Even diversifying himself among several other stocks (not weed ones) would be better than his all-on-one approach (been there, done that, never doing that again). Don’t put all your eggs in one basket, because there’s every chance that that one basket can blow up.

Who knows what he has with the robo, but it’s probably better/safer than holding one weed stock.

So many people invest in stocks, instead of companies. If you’re going to invest, invest in a company that is backed up by proven, objective strength, not hype.

Lastly, someone I know recently made $11,000 on $50,000, and took profits, obviously. Entering and exiting the market constantly in the last few weeks. This person is gambling. Not investing. That’s not for me. Not worth the emotional roller coaster and the inevitable losses that accompany such behaviour. Good for him if he can stomach that kind of risk, if it makes life more exciting for him, as some kind of hobby, but I know I sure can’t afford to, and don’t want to waste my energy on that kind of high-risk speculation and constant activity.

…First?

#2 BillyBob on 01.09.19 at 4:09 pm

#122 Stan Brooks, A Lifetime of Incompetency on 01.09.19 at 12:07 pm
#105 BillyBob

How else can I prove to Mr.Stanley I am not a realtor? You are another one who assumes everyone on this blog who doesn’t hold Stanley’s views is a realtor. Do you also suffer from a delusional disorder like poor Stanley? Stanley owning me in an argument? You must be as mad as Mr. Stan if you think that is so. I have just pointed out how deranged his diatribes against Toronto are. You wouldn’t be sharing the same rubber room as Stanley would you?

===================================

Why do you want to prove anything? People who want to “win the internet” are losers by definition.

I don’t care if you’re a realtor or not. That was only meant to be a bit of lighthearted teasing, but now I’m feeling bad as I realize I’ve been baiting someone who deliberately or not, comes across as mentally ill.

It could be just your poor communication skills, who knows. Happens.

But yeah, Stan actually makes cogent arguments. You, not so much.

#3 AGuyInVancouver on 01.09.19 at 4:14 pm

“…This pathetic blog has argued that the GTA, by far the largest housing market in Canada, is going to come out of the next year far less torched than Vancouver, Victoria or the oily places to the right. Local politicians are not (as in BC) trying to engineer a crash, taxes aren’t going nuts, the economy is more diverse and the population vastly higher with a lower ratio of new construction. ..”
_ _ _
And yet all those things were largely true in Toronto in 1989, and yet the market still slipped 40-50% and took over 13 years to recover.

#4 JB on 01.09.19 at 4:17 pm

The market is so skewed right now that it is the absolute worst time to buy. Prices are still artificially high with no real appreciable decline to make them more appetizing to a purchaser. Home costs have driven most to condos and their cost is ridiculously high. You buy a condo now and your going to regret it for the rest of your life. They will tank in years to come and you will lose your shirt. Rental market is now driven higher as those blocked from the low end of the condo market have to live somewhere. Best advice is to sit on your equity and wait until the dust settles, probably around November of 2020!

#5 jess on 01.09.19 at 4:24 pm

tenant shuffles —two worlds in one

https://www.occrp.org/en/goldensands/how-to-inherit-a-villa-kremlin-style

renovictions
https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2018/03/23/tenants-say-flimsy-law-opens-door-to-renovictions.html

#6 Ignition on 01.09.19 at 4:28 pm

We clearly will not see a meaningful correction in places like Vancouver and Victoria when during the absolute ‘best conditions’ for a correction – rising rates, increased government taxes, new stress test, unparalleled debt levels- the real estate market only generated a decline in sales, not substantive price declines.

And a decline in sales does not mean that a correction is around the corner. Sales have been declining year over year for several years in Victoria, and prices in the center and surrounding communities only went up annually.

Now with interest rates on hold, or moving up in a glacial way, the reintroduction of the 30 year amortization, and a cap on the stress test, the only thing that impacted the market, the market has new stimulative tools to play with.

These are all highly stimulative moves that will cater to a generation that has seen real estate only go up in value while portfolios get hammered.

A mere 50 basis point cut in rates in 2015 thrust markets into new highs, with 30-40% increases over the past few years. And rates are going nowhere, making Carney warning us about rising rates and debt levels since 2012 look moronic.

Extending the amortization to 30 years significantly increases the amount newbies and anyone can borrow, pushing prices higher.

And the forthcoming cap on the stress test tells everyone with a pulse that the government will not let real estate fail. The so-called independent OFSI will bow to political pressure, because 70% of Canadians are homeowners and we are heading into an election where the young are miffed they cannot own.

Sorry, but 2019 will see rising prices again.

And while some buyers saw a dip in price of 20% in the GTA, that just wiped out the gains of those that bought 1-2 two years ago. The majority of homeowers are completely unaffected. Anyone that bought 3, 5, 8, 10 years ago are laughing to the bank with unprecedented capital gains and a big ol cushion if the market slides sideways or a down.

Plus they got a home to live their life in, not a string of rentals over those years as rental market conditions pushed rents 50% higher, allowed lanlords to execute renovictions and fixed term leases, and sales of rental properties jumped when the capital gains were too juicy to ignore.

Being a renter the past 5-10 years following a flury of doom and gloom has been a poor choice compared to owning in all the hottest markets. The math speaks for itself and is uncontestable.

#7 SaraJ on 01.09.19 at 4:35 pm

+1 JB.
So many people are house rich and cash poor at this moment, it remains to be seen how this thing ends. People with $2M+ houses in TO without incomes to support the carry of that asset were using HELOCs to suplement their cash flow based on promise of RE cap gains. Now that gains are going they are cutting on other discretionary items first but at some point they will sell RE which will bring a second wave or price drops.

#8 Chris on 01.09.19 at 4:37 pm

But what about Guelph, Garth? House hit the market on the weekend, 3 offers, sold over asking :) And that’s at the nose bleed of 600k on 1,000 sq foot bungalow. But whatever, it’s nice to be holding a couple. Should have kept those others though….time to jump in again, ask my wife!

#9 jerry on 01.09.19 at 4:48 pm

More interest rate hikes still coming

“But despite that slowdown, the bank still indicated it plans to raise the rate again sooner rather than later. “The policy interest rate will need to rise over time into a neutral range to achieve the inflation target,” the bank said.”

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/bank-of-canada-rate-decision-1.4971176

#10 marcus on 01.09.19 at 4:56 pm

Things are so far from over it is not even funny. Today in Germany women are being questioned as they walk around malls if they are right wing nationalists. Their crime? Their hair is in braids in a traditional German fashion. They were strip searched as well. Also today the American Psychiatric Association has stated that traditional male behavior such as stoicism, competitiveness, self reliance and athleticism are a Psychological disorder. What does this have to do with bank rates and housing sales? Everything. If your society is going down the shitter so is your real estate investment. Invest accordingly.

#11 Tickled Pink on 01.09.19 at 5:07 pm

DELETED

#12 Yvonne on 01.09.19 at 5:17 pm

Realosophy Realty Inc. Brokerage has very few listings, but John P is very good at social media self-promotion. I wouldn’t listen to him either.

#13 Headhunter on 01.09.19 at 5:22 pm

Not too sure how soft the landing will be. 80K incomes Million dollar homes. Seems Legit. But hey why not live a little and enjoy is how I roll.

Boom Bust Echo.. great book. We are in the echo. Kids are having surrogate kids.. this blogs fav “dogs”

make your bets accordingly

#14 Rugrats need their diapers changed on 01.09.19 at 5:23 pm

The comments section of this Cost of Living website disagrees with your hypothesis that Toronto is a growing economy:
https://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/in/Toronto

#15 jess on 01.09.19 at 5:23 pm

#10 marcus on 01.09.19 at 4:56 pm

so these disorders u refer to …what is this disorder than

“n the spring of 2016, as the Russian-domiciled First Czech Russian Bank (FCRB) approached insolvency, staff worked feverishly to erase ledgers, destroy documents, and conceal evidence of the bank’s activity over the previous 9 years.

These documents, had they survived, would have revealed the details of a litany of questionable activities: financial support for Iran; use of the bank as a vehicle for money laundering by corrupt elites on a massive scale through the Russian Laudromat, a money laundering scheme identified by Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP); support for sanctioned organized crime figures; and most alarming of all, Russian state-sanctioned interference in the Western political system in the form of a 9.4 million euro loan to the National Front, a far-right French political party.”

ILLICIT INFLUENCE: PART ONE

https://c4ads.org/reports

#16 millmech on 01.09.19 at 5:27 pm

Garth,
Thoughts on CoPower Green Bonds, paying 5%, interest can be compounded annually for a return of $1736.36 over 6years.

#17 Dave on 01.09.19 at 5:28 pm

BC real estate is dead cold, everything is collapsing. There is only massive debt pain ahead, my god I cant believe it went so expensive for so long.

#18 Ignition on 01.09.19 at 5:29 pm

#10 marcus on 01.09.19 at 4:56 pm
Things are so far from over it is not even funny. Today in Germany women are being questioned as they walk around malls if they are right wing nationalists. Their crime? Their hair is in braids in a traditional German fashion. They were strip searched as well. Also today the American Psychiatric Association has stated that traditional male behavior such as stoicism, competitiveness, self reliance and athleticism are a Psychological disorder. What does this have to do with bank rates and housing sales? Everything. If your society is going down the shitter so is your real estate investment. Invest accordingly.

————

Clearly you like to regurgitate the tweets of one ‘Paul Joseph Watson @ Prison Planet’ and make tenuous linkages to a perceived decline in society with an unpercetable decline in hot Canadian real estate markets.

#19 not 1st on 01.09.19 at 5:30 pm

So the BoC got confused, held rates, halted increases and talked a cut even. Well yeah, people like dolce have been saying something is wrong in the economy.

And I loved the dead wood geriatric response from Pelosi and the dems last night. Yup, just keep giving her air time. Makes Trump look absolutely Shakespearean.

So this logic, a wall is an immorality, but human trafficking, drugs and gangs are ok. I mean what planet are these people living on.

#20 JSS on 01.09.19 at 5:30 pm

A great, relevant blog today, as usual.

There’s a few factors at play that didn’t exist as such in the past:

– Boomer parents are willing to cash out their RRSPs and using existing cash and other investments to purchase homes for their children. If not, they’re at least gifting down payments to their kids. No one starts with a duplex anymore
– interest rates are still historically low
– double income families were both spouses are making decent money
– effect of social media like Facebook, whereby people “humblebrag” about their new $1M+ home. This has the effect of arousing friends on social media, who then force their spouses to jump into the same debt ditch as their friends by buying another home
– lack of financial education at home

The only way house prices will go down:
– riding interest rates to an inflection point where pain becomes educational and unbearable
– job loss, or structural unemployment (try finding another job past age 40)
– one of the spouses wakes up one morning and says “my back hurts. Why do we need 4,000 square foot?” (People do age and get sick)
– financial education comes back to the dinner table

#21 yorkville renter on 01.09.19 at 5:31 pm

I happened across the article today too… he did end the article by hedging

“All of this doesn’t mean the Toronto housing market is in the clear and prices will start rising again. The reality is that house prices are still quite high in Toronto relative to incomes and there are a number of factors that could result in some instability in our housing market”

#22 1% Prepper on 01.09.19 at 5:43 pm

I always find it funny when prices go up 15% YoY, the market is “on fire” and we better buy or be priced out forever. But when prices come down 15%, its a “gentle landing” and it’s a good time to go back into the market.

I’ve been enjoying renting for the past 4 years and stuffing the savings into my TFSA and RRSP. Landlord asks me every year if I want to buy. I always chuckle and thank him but no

#23 You know on 01.09.19 at 5:52 pm

Garth you know what you’re saying but be more succinct …just say it it’s all about …suck and blow, and we all know that nobody can do that at the same time….pass the crackers please!

#24 marcus on 01.09.19 at 5:56 pm

#17 Ignition “Clearly you like to regurgitate the tweets of one ‘Paul Joseph Watson @ Prison Planet’ and make tenuous linkages to a perceived decline in society with an unpercetable decline in hot Canadian real estate markets.”

I don’t tweet. I have family in Germany. I travel a lot. I have eyes. I have a background in medical/Neuro. Society is being modified. If you cannot see that when the APA comes out and states that “traditional” male attributes are a Pathology then YOU have the problem. LOL! as stated before ….. Invest accordingly.

#25 marcus on 01.09.19 at 5:59 pm

#14 Jess Looks like more banking fraud. It is a world-wide problem now. the world powers are swinging big financial sticks now as best they can. We sit in the cheap seats.

#26 Reximus on 01.09.19 at 6:00 pm

Well, John P is just one voice but he isnt saying anything beyond what he has observed, namely that the prices in GTA took an unquestionable step back between Apr/Aug 2017 and have been pretty stable since…some areas /property type segments up a bit, some the same or less, as is normal. On this he is not wrong. I have not read him saying hurry up and get in now or else you’ll be sorry…unlike all I hear from RE bears which is get out now, which has been a constant howl for 10 years…

Financial mkts otoh have seen similar instability, including a move from early dec to last week that matches unrealized “losses” in RE, in just 4 weeks! Nobody would scream SELL or else

People who bought in Q1 2017 for example are down but so would be their previous home, and unless they were first time buyers (not likely in the 1.4 mil SFD segment) or speculators (dumb) most people are fine.

#27 ronh on 01.09.19 at 6:04 pm

Things are not well. I base that statement on the
Used Stratocaster index. They aren’t selling. Same guitar listed for two years. Prices are sticky.
To buy a toy, you need disposable income. It starts at the margins.

#28 eightlock90 on 01.09.19 at 6:16 pm

Get some earplugs ready for the amount of screaming and whining you are about to hear from people who will be watching their home equity vanish and have their creditors start chasing them down. “The government needs to do something!”.

Also for the people saying the Gov’t is bringing back 30 year amortization and removing the stress test – It is not going to happen. Trudeau is a bad politician but there’s no way an election platform of “bring back the housing bubble” is not going to be easily attacked by the cpc and the media.

Sorry perma RE bulls, Canada is not immune to the laws of economics. Asset prices will crash but the debt will remain and people will either go bankrupt or spend the rest of their lives being the banks bitch.

There are no millennials, rich foreign buyers, or government policies coming to save you. This is the tip of the iceberg of the housing crash.

#29 Oakville Sucks on 01.09.19 at 6:16 pm

I suggest you take Pasalis off your Twitter Garth. I was follòwing him for a while and I could not believe many of the things he said…therefore he lost credibility through my eyes. I stopped following his tweets.

#30 reynolds531 on 01.09.19 at 6:17 pm

Are Realtors really still charging 5%??

#31 Bob Dog on 01.09.19 at 6:17 pm

Migration will be a key issue in the upcoming election, as it should be. The damn baby boomer are not dying off nearly fast enough to free up enough housing for the newcomers.

Sky high rent and insane home prices are simply the result of market demand for a limited resource.

Immigration to Canada will be no issue in the 2019 election. We value newcomers. – Garth

#32 KLNR on 01.09.19 at 6:43 pm

@#23 marcus on 01.09.19 at 5:56 pm
#17 Ignition “Clearly you like to regurgitate the tweets of one ‘Paul Joseph Watson @ Prison Planet’ and make tenuous linkages to a perceived decline in society with an unpercetable decline in hot Canadian real estate markets.”

I don’t tweet. I have family in Germany. I travel a lot. I have eyes. I have a background in medical/Neuro. Society is being modified. If you cannot see that when the APA comes out and states that “traditional” male attributes are a Pathology then YOU have the problem. LOL! as stated before ….. Invest accordingly.
_________________________________________

I hear where you’re coming from Marcus, but to be honest you come off sounding a little crazy.

#33 The Real Mark on 01.09.19 at 6:47 pm

“The only way house prices will go down:”

House prices *are* going down. After years of stagnation post-2013 peak/plateau. Are you a Realtor by chance, talking “hypothetically” about things that are actually already happening? I too remember the disingenuous comments of some Realtors who claimed, “if house prices go down, everyone will be unemployed, and nobody will be buying houses then”. Yet we know from past experience that there have been plenty of episodes of falling house prices where the employment market actually did incredibly well — ostensibly due to the fact that excess capital was liberated from RE and was directed towards legitimate business investment. As was the case in the 1990s for example.

BTW, what’s with all the nastiness towards “Stan Brooks” yesterday? Rather unfortunate to say the least, even if you, like me, often disagree with him.

#34 Reximus on 01.09.19 at 6:57 pm

Sky high rent and insane home prices are simply the result of market demand for a limited resource.

So why not build more? isn’t that the idea?

#35 the ryguy on 01.09.19 at 6:58 pm

Nailed it today Garth.

Stuff that kinds of matters:
stress test/interest rates/fomo/fogo

What REALLY MATTERS:
Median Income-average property ratio

Think of the income/average ratio as the turkey at Xmas dinner.. stress test & rates etc are the potatoes, salad and cranberries. Yeah it matters..but it aint Xmas dinner without a Turkey.

Any fool with a pulse and an internet connection can see what people make in different areas as well as corresponding home values. Given the absurd income required to buy a home in *most* of Canada..we aren’t getting A-listers coming our way.

Now extend that same logic to companies..lets say Amazon… “We need a new distribution hub, hows Toronto? I hear its a world class city!!” Executive takes a quick look at the numers..”So you’re telling me unless we want a completely transient workforce we need to pay $30-40/hr AND THEN pay canada’s tax rates?.. Hmm..tell me more about Fresno”.

Canada got a perfect storm that led us to today. After the GFC we suffered less than most, which led Canadians to have an arrogant belief that its different here. Then low rates/CMHC/arrogance/foreign money (IMO anyway) created more froth…that lead to the Pitbull/Stallone spring & summer of 17 when people legitimately lost their minds and just said “ill pay whatever, It only goes up”.

Bottom line..wages ARE NOT coming up to meet property values, if you think otherwise I got a bridge to sell. So what are the alternatives? Prices come down, or you rent/move. BOC may lower rates, maybe 30 year ams come back, it SHOULDNT matter. Look at the sticker price..come on, deep down you know its stupid, no matter how hard she squeezes your hand you KNOW those prices are ludicrous.

Sorry for the doom & gloom, but its not different here, whether it crashes or melts is irrelevant, until Canada takes its medicine we will be stuck in this same rut.

#36 Penny Henny on 01.09.19 at 7:01 pm

#30 Bob Dog on 01.09.19 at 6:17 pm
Migration will be a key issue in the upcoming election, as it should be. The damn baby boomer are not dying off nearly fast enough to free up enough housing for the newcomers.

Sky high rent and insane home prices are simply the result of market demand for a limited resource.

Immigration to Canada will be no issue in the 2019 election. We value newcomers. – Garth
/////////////

This was the message- The damn baby boomer are not dying off nearly fast enough to free up enough housing for the newcomers.

Nothing personal, I’m a boomer too. 1965

#37 JSS on 01.09.19 at 7:03 pm

#32 The Real Mark

I have no idea what you just wrote

#38 The Real Stan Brooks on 01.09.19 at 7:14 pm

#32 The Real Mark on 01.09.19 at 6:47 pm

BTW, what’s with all the nastiness towards “Stan Brooks” yesterday? Rather unfortunate to say the least, even if you, like me, often disagree with him.
///////////

And another thing. I adore Mark. I love his handle ‘The Real Mark’.
From now on please address me as ‘The Real Stan Brooks’

#39 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.09.19 at 7:30 pm

(standard realtor commission would be $57,000).

+++++
An absolutely obscene amount of money for what boils down to ….

Being a “licensed” realtor (commissioned sales)in 2010 to 2018.
Pass the 12 week course( dont worry about the chapter on Ethics).

Then the “work” begins.
Seller calls you.
You go to the house and tell them its worth more than you know it will sell for to get the contract.
Take pictures.
Go back to the office( realtors home?)
Post pictures on website with glowing appraisal.(nothing negative).
Field multiple calls/ emails.
Make appointments.
Arrive at home, unlock door, step aside……let potential buyers view home while pointing out all the good qualities(nothing negative).
Witness Signed agreement.
Collect $57,000.00
Next……

2019?

Crickets……….

#40 What Could Possibly Go Wrong on 01.09.19 at 7:36 pm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dYx9wbCsl14
The Real Estate in the GTA has begun to slowly deflate, and then the panic sets into play. The unknown factors have yet to be reset, but once it gets rolling this may happen in a worst case scenario.

#41 TurnerNation on 01.09.19 at 7:37 pm

Greetings blog dogs.

First I must politick my identity here in Kanada: I am a heteronormative, gender-conforming Cis person; I present as a man; my pronouns are He, His, Him and Blog Dog.

Now if you spend 1-2 million in Toronto on a house you get druggies professionally damaging your car and its contents. This epidemic has been charted.
[Trigger warning] At least ole USA offers communities which are gated. With walls natch ;)

https://www.blogto.com/city/2019/01/toronto-neighbourhood-car-thefts-break-ins/

#42 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.09.19 at 7:39 pm

@Stan B
“You are looking at min. 5-7 years jail time for uttering threats.”
++++++

In Canada?
Bwahahahahahaha
Ahahahahahahahahahahaha.
Spoken like a true lawyer trying to drum up a client.

Sorry to break it to you Stan but in these “touchy feely” times + the country we live in ….
Most murderers dont serve 7 years.

Try again.

#43 NothingBurger on 01.09.19 at 7:45 pm

Speaking of ‘premature ebullition’ – can anyone offer any advice? My gf is getting frustrated as hell and if I don’t sort this out she is likely to cheat

#44 change in the matrix on 01.09.19 at 7:46 pm

The idea that RE prices will go up, up, up and away again is ludicrous. Emergency rates are off the table. Rates will remain stable or worse, go higher. Bad news for RE. Even if and that is a big IF, rates were to be cut again.. the valuations are so freakin’ high now that it’s impossible to attract fresh blood into markets. The RE investment clubs with their HELOC leverage are wanting to cash out rather than adding more. Sales volumes are dismal which makes RE investing very long in the tooth.

Face it suckers, the RE game is done. It won’t come back until that painful correction has happened. These prices aren’t going to get anyone excited. Maybe the 5% or so of buyers who buy because they can’t flush their money anywhere else due to restrictions. But even that group has found other jurisdictions in the world where there’s less scrutiny.

It’s going to be painful for builders, contractors and realtors. The market of 2019 will be dead. Prices have to come down considerably before the show can go on. The flush in equity markets was just a harbinger of what’s to come for RE markets.

Hedge yourself accordingly.

#45 NothingBurger on 01.09.19 at 7:50 pm

“And, mostly, why is the average crappy, unrenovated detached house on a dodgy street still priced at $1,145,000 when the median household income is $79,000?”

Blame our countries laws and the politicians put in to write the laws on behalf of the real estate and development economy. These laws allows foreigners to flood our private home market with their speculation money and their wives and kids.

The foreigners are not the problem, it is our political class who sells out the many on behalf of the few.

#46 Terrie Rolph on 01.09.19 at 7:51 pm

“This is when realtors emerge from wintering in their A7s, blinking against the strengthening sun, gaunt from months of eating crow and stale listings, hungry for fresh commissions.”

You really ARE a wonderful writer. :)

#47 For those about to flop... on 01.09.19 at 7:54 pm

Race to 800k

Featured these guys in a Race to 900k post once.

I might have mentioned once or twice that there is no support at the bottom of the market and so you might want to check out what these guys thought was necessary to possibly achieve a sale.

The details…

153 e 64th Avenue,Vancouver.

Originally asking 948k

Now asking 888k

Assessment 2017 1.02

Assessment 2018 986k

So a livable detached couldn’t get an offer of 950k.

As with all options down the bottom of the ladder they come with some sort of baggage, like on a busy street,no maintained properly,etc.

The caveat with this one, as noted in my original post was this house is kind of skinny.

A lot of people make it their New Years resolution to lose weight.

The realtors would prefer you to have a skinny wallet..

M44BC

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/153-east-64th-avenue

#48 expat on 01.09.19 at 7:59 pm

Unless someone has been through a bubble crash one really doesn;t understand how the cycle deflates.

One can see how bitcoin went from 200 to 20,000 and now is destined for near zero. It was a tulip mania and everyone bought into it.

Real estate goes through these bubble cycles form time to time and I am always amazed how human psycjology works.

I’v ebeen through two and the first cleaned me out. The second one I sold near the top – not the top – becuase I saw the same behaviour…

One thing about bubbles is I know few who ever catch an exact top. I do firmly believe the unwind is occuring.
There is one behavior that triggers it for me.

In Toronto three years ago you had 100’s of people bidding on a property. If that isn’t a bubble I am an idiot.

In a normal market one could 1-2 offers simultaneously. It is rare to have more.

Interest rates were at 1000 year lows according to Marty Armstrong who is quite the historian. If that is so wouldn;t it be logical to assume that a revision to teh mean happens?

What is normal historical interest rates? I grew up in a range of 6-20%. I’d say 7% would be an acceptable norm.

As I have mentioned pension funds are in serious toruble from zerobound and stupid investments.

Interest rates are up 200-300% from their bottoms. People are broke at 4%. Governments like Trudeaus were counselled to borrow at lifetime low rates an have done so with zero increase in jobs…

All these things lead me to believe that something very big is occuring..

Time will tell what this will be but one thing is for sure. Systems are calving….

The FED paniked this week and backed off as did BOC> If there is one thing we cna tkae form this is this.

The Central banks are lost and out of touch of what the outcome of QE has done.

It has created crack addicts and there is no methadone.

#49 Imconfused on 01.09.19 at 8:01 pm

Hi mr.turner, I pay my fortis bill every month will be paying it till I die. I’m 32, why not own fortis, bns, bce, cn rail or enbridge. I’m no rocket scientist but what’s the chance of them going bankrupt? I own 40k of each stock. Please shed some light so I can understand why I should have my 200k in etfs only.
Thank you
Doris

#50 Out Of Work CEO, Will Travel on 01.09.19 at 8:08 pm

The Canadian lurched a tad in a weak state but looks to have some further rehab to do as possible relapse is part of Cdn. $DNA. Governor Poloz showed up (his hair is so blond) and didn’t disappoint gabbing up our drunken sailor looney but forgiveness is a needed quality in the Canadian populace. The Guv kiks up his heels when the camera is on …I love his jokes. He has a point Laugh or you will cry. I luv the Guv.

#51 Natalie on 01.09.19 at 8:09 pm

Garth,

You are taking a stab at my realtor here?! I am offended!

#52 millmech on 01.09.19 at 8:09 pm

# 25 Reximus

The plus side to the market dropping in December was it enabled investors to pick up some investments at a great discount.
You can not just add more to your physical real estate holdings when it gets discounted 20% temporarily, if anything the bank can ask (make a margin call on your loan) for immediate HELOC repayment if they so want
to.
I wonder how many people read the fine print on those mortgage documents in the heat of the moment and really understand that until you make that last payment to the bank that they own your house.
I was reading an article about interest payments in Canada and the number that was floated was that 35% of a Canadians lifetimes earnings was paid to interest payments.

#53 Blacksheep on 01.09.19 at 8:27 pm

ryguy # 34,

“Stuff that kinds of matters:
stress test/interest rates/fomo/fogo”
—————————-
This IS ALL, that matters.

“What REALLY MATTERS:
Median Income-average property ratio”
—————————-
This doesn’t matter, AT ALL.

Want proof?

Median income in Van is 72K
Median income in GTA is 78K

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Median_household_income_of_cities_in_Canada

How is the average single detached, flirting with, or over 1000K? It sure as hell has not been supported by those weak ass incomes, so please explain why things are now, different?

Personal experience on the topic:

I sold my RE res. in 2009 based on your rational (mine too at the time) and barely escaped with out losing my shirt (everyone’s heard the boring story so I’ll spare you) until I bought in again, late 2013.

Remember, we live In a world where central banks are desperately trying to avoid the end of a 70 year debt super cycle. They have been providing a virtually endless supply of free $’s, (crack) to all takers.

Look at rates, it matters not how long one waits, they are going nowhere substantial because the weakened economy has adjusted to low rates and needs the ‘cheap fix’ just to keep things rolling.

X-time fundamentals, mean absolutely nothing.

Your welcome…

#54 For those about to flop... on 01.09.19 at 8:31 pm

Pink Snow falling in Richmond.

These guys refuse to lose.

The details…

10111 Lawson Dr ,Richmond.

Paid 1.36 March 2016

Originally asking 1.59

Now asking 1.38

Assessment 2017 1.37

Assessment 2018 1.30

Been trying to get their money back since summer 2016,when I started saying something was wrong with the market.

I have lost count,honestly.

Could be eighth time on market.

Could be ninth.

Anyone suggesting they take a 50k loss and move on with their lives is no longer invited over for dinner…

M44BC

https://www.zolo.ca/richmond-real-estate/10111-lawson-drive

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDA1WFQwWA==

#55 Mrs. Fool on 01.09.19 at 8:32 pm

This is off topic but I couldn’t resist to reply to Nonplused

#76 Nonplused on 01.06.19 at 12:25 am
“Ryan, given the circles you run in, I am sure you have flown to the US more times than I have. Did you not notice that the US already has a wall in Canada in the form of the US customs agents who are living in our own land and vetting people in our own airports? Why do you have to get vetted before you can even go on the plane but people from Honduras can just walk right in?”
********

Well, if you travel more often, you will know that Canada, the Bahamas and a couple of other countries are the ONLY ones where US immigration officers screen travellers in their country of origin. I think this has to do with sovereignty; many countries see it unlawful having U.S. law enforcement in their own territories. I personally find it outrageous to be welcomed to the US when still in Canada.

********
#76 Nonplused on 01.06.19 at 12:25 am
“Why are they worrying about us from the north more than those from the south? Why can’t we Canadians just walk or drive or fly or boat in whenever we like without being interviewed?”

Well, because we beavers make the largest group of illegal immigrants arriving to the US ‘legally’. As some blog dogs have also mentioned, most of the illegal migrants arrive with travel visas and not by ‘walking right in’ like Hondurans, who walked more than 3000 km by the way.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-44319094

No wonder why ‘T’s’ are being elected in many countries, people’s ignorance is just mind-blowing.

#56 the Jaguar on 01.09.19 at 8:38 pm

There is such an airbrushed quality about that dog. I find it sinful.
Everything Garth writes is interesting by virtue of his being such a gem, but this last paragraph captures my imagination and attention:

“And, mostly, why is the average crappy, unrenovated detached house on a dodgy street still priced at $1,145,000 when the median household income is $79,000? That doesn’t seem to be much of a correction, or to constitute a ‘soft landing’ with the market ready to take off again.”

If that household income remained stagnant (likely), and at mortgage renewal time the renewal rate was even one point higher than the teaser rate that reeled the owners in at mortgage inception, well…. my oh my.
And if that didn’t scare the bee-jesus out of them imagine finding out that they would only be able to unload the white elephant they bought at a substantial discount from the original purchase price. The newspapers can be fun to read, but you can’t believe everything that is printed or broadcast for that matter. A little common sense analysis and powers of observation go a lot further with a bigger pay off. Mom always told us not to bite off more than we could chew.

#57 Smoking Man on 01.09.19 at 8:42 pm

DELETED

#58 akashic record on 01.09.19 at 8:43 pm

#31 KLNR on 01.09.19 at 6:43 pm

@#23 marcus on 01.09.19 at 5:56 pm
#17 Ignition “Clearly you like to regurgitate the tweets of one ‘Paul Joseph Watson @ Prison Planet’ and make tenuous linkages to a perceived decline in society with an unpercetable decline in hot Canadian real estate markets.”

I don’t tweet. I have family in Germany. I travel a lot. I have eyes. I have a background in medical/Neuro. Society is being modified. If you cannot see that when the APA comes out and states that “traditional” male attributes are a Pathology then YOU have the problem. LOL! as stated before ….. Invest accordingly.
_________________________________________

I hear where you’re coming from Marcus, but to be honest you come off sounding a little crazy.

—-

See it for yourself, before making your own little psychological assessment. Then you would not need to pull it from where it should not come from.

https://www.apa.org/about/policy/boys-men-practice-guidelines.pdf

#59 Rexx Rock on 01.09.19 at 8:48 pm

DELETED

#60 paracho on 01.09.19 at 9:03 pm

I also beleive in what Garth is alluding to in this piece. A deflation of the bubble over a lnger time span. The decrease in amount of interest rate hikes will only make it hurt much more for many . As the markets of the GTA and Vancouver continue to deflate in values, there will be much more coming out .
Many strange mortgages and many painful adjustments will be made by many .
I found this piece interesting as someone who did some work and has some exposure to the mortgage industry .A lot more of this will expose itself as the values of real estate continue to decline .
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/mortgage-broker-vinita-lal-1.4955003?fbclid=IwAR07vOBEjx62O5kheNC647LRqiM1tGSkVzCvSjRD6pTozWlBNgNxVDJcDWs

#61 Figure it Out on 01.09.19 at 9:09 pm

“just say it it’s all about …suck and blow, and we all know that nobody can do that at the same time”

Tell this guy:

The King Of Afrobeat, Ambassador Femi Kuti

#62 TO Engineering dude on 01.09.19 at 9:10 pm

G: “Hard to know who to believe these days. But it’s easier when you rule out those you can’t.”

>>Clearly not you today, Garth – your sensationalism and cherry-picked data to advance your narrative are showing much more than usual. Here’s the examples from today’s post:

G: “the average 416 detached house, now changing hands at $1.145 million, was selling for $280,202 – or 19.6% more – just last May (of 2018)”

>> Why are we comparing the height of seasonal peak prices (April/May) to the annual seasonal lows (December) without adjustment? Please adjust for seasonality – or are you giving us a hall pass to start comparing December 2018 to May 2019 and screaming how the market’s ablaze when it might actually be showing flat when accounting for seasonality?

G: “why is the average crappy, unrenovated detached house on a dodgy street still priced at $1,145,000 when the median household income is $79,000?”

>> Cmon, you know this as well as I do. First, you’re mixing *average* price with *median* income. Secondly, the average/median person cannot is not living in the average/median home. Average salary of homeowners is much higher than average salary of the population at large (ie. renters+owners+adult children living at home)

G: “Wage gains suck”

>>Hmm.. and there I thought Stats Can says that average income increased by 4% from fall ’17 to fall ’18. That’s hardly a sucky wage gain. Ahead of inflation as well as average real estate price change. What’s not to love?

I’m a little saddened that today’s post seems to contain so much slant – ironic that you titled it “Fake”.

(a) The stats used were a direct comparison to those that Pasalis peddled, showing his error. (2) The long-term correlation of house prices and median household income is well-documented. This is an accepted measure of over-valuation. (c) Wage growth in Canada over the last year was 1.3%, less than the inflation rate of 1.7%. You were quoting a US source. Soundslike someone bought real estate on spec and is now freaking. – Garth

#63 Stan Brooks on 01.09.19 at 9:12 pm

#30 Bob Dog on 01.09.19 at 6:17 pm
Migration will be a key issue in the upcoming election, as it should be. The damn baby boomer are not dying off nearly fast enough to free up enough housing for the newcomers.

Sky high rent and insane home prices are simply the result of market demand for a limited resource.

No, that is an absolutely untrue statement.

The arguments:

1. The cost of living in the big cities, predominantly where the immigrants settle is already insane.

2. The immigrants coming here are not rich, the world is very different from 20, even 10 years ago, now it is much more open and provides much more opportunities for qualified specialists to immigrate.

3. The so called 3rd world countries already provide much better opportunities for their young and educated. Their economies actually grow and much faster than the developed countries. A doctor or an engineer in India has much better standard of living than such in the big cities in Canada, considering the cost of living.

4. The infrastructure of the big cities in Canada can not
handle all these people.

5. The economy can not provide opportunity for all these people to work meaningful sustainable jobs.

6. It is clear that we can not attract the brightest and the smartest due to the low pay and higher taxes, not so nice weather etc.

7. The economy of tomorrow is the knowledge economy, not the cheap labour economy (we can’t compete with Mexico in cheap labour) so all this immigration as planned does not make any sense, we need to target the best and the smartest who are increasingly not coming here in the last 20 years.

8. The rich foreigners are not coming to Canada it is an urban myth propped by the real estate cartels in order to serve their self interests.

9. The young Canadians are moving already out from the big cities and into US due to much better paying opportunities, US has 7.5 million job openings and one must be insane not to consider it.

It is funny to read how Americans want to move to Canada en masse, it is a giant lie.

And the punch line:

If there was such great wealth and opportunities here why did we need then that giant credit bubble Ponzi scheme in order to prop and juice the housing market, destroying any competitiveness in the economy and our pensions in the process?

#64 yorkville renter on 01.09.19 at 9:16 pm

Things are not well. I base that statement on the
Used Stratocaster index. They aren’t selling. Same guitar listed for two years. Prices are sticky.
To buy a toy, you need disposable income. It starts at the margins.
____________________________________

I see quarterly stats from an auto sales research group and the ‘days holding inventory’ has been steadily increasing – now 10 days longer than one year prior – about 15-20% longer

Its not just the margins

#65 DON on 01.09.19 at 9:16 pm

#6 Ignition on 01.09.19 at 4:28 pm

We clearly will not see a meaningful correction in places like Vancouver and Victoria when during the absolute ‘best conditions’ for a correction – rising rates, increased government taxes, new stress test, unparalleled debt levels- the real estate market only generated a decline in sales, not substantive price declines.

*********************
The deflating is not over yet…and Australia’s housing is declining in a low interest rate environment with a humming economy. The best condition for a housing decline is simply sky high prices detached from wages or wage gains. That is the dominant factor preventing the market from continuous increases in house prices. Have you ever lived through a housing downturn, if so do you have a bad memory? Seriously you are calling the bottom of the market now. The movie ain’t over yet, take a seat and pass the popcorn.

Any negative factor at this point in time is not good for a market that was driven on hype, FOMO and positive sentiment. So in your view when prices reach 2 million for the average house in what 6 months? they will keep going up in in 2 years they will be 4 million. Do you see the flaw in your theory. Plus with people being stretched, no wage gains pain is slowly felt on the home front. The school system is too blame for the lack of critical thinking at the adult level.

#66 prairie person on 01.09.19 at 9:19 pm

https://www.macleans.ca/economy/realestateeconomy/this-is-how-canadas-housing-correction-begins/

#67 DON on 01.09.19 at 9:23 pm

#122 Stan Brooks, A Lifetime of Incompetency on 01.09.19 at 12:07 pm

Enough of your attempt at internet bullying. Stan is entitled to his opinion as well as you. But you are not offering anything but attacks cause you don’t like what he is saying.

I’ll meet you on Stan’s behalf, cause if there is one thing that boils my blood more than misinformation it is Bully.

Troll me – I like it! But expect an equal and opposite reaction.

#68 Stan Brooks on 01.09.19 at 9:28 pm

#52 Blacksheep on 01.09.19 at 8:27 pm

Fundamentals do not mean anything for a while .. until they do again.

Capital flows out from countries who have weak currency and low growth at the same time
We have significant capital outflows that in addition weaken local exchanges (read TSX)

Debt levels really matter. Low interest rates accommodating debt create inflation pressure that can not be compensated by return on capital, monetization has its limits.

Look at Japan – already 3 decades of stagnating real estate in nominal terms despite being small island with huge population and roaring economy, their currency dived as well.

We are in much, much worse shape than Japan.

Out high price to income rations that becomes even higher when considering taxes and cost of living/disposable income is only due to enormous debt as well as really bad risk management practices/aka mortgage insurance. It will blow up in our faces.

#69 TRUMP 2020 on 01.09.19 at 9:35 pm

THE WALL will be BUILT!!

No more RATE HIKES!!

IMPEACHMENT probe is DUST.

HOUSING will tank.

Markets headed for a 50% slide…..

BUT thanks to trudeau we can all get high and be happy.

#70 the ryguy on 01.09.19 at 10:23 pm

#52 Blacksheep on 01.09.19 at 8:27 pm
———————————————–

if thats how you feel you should be buying up all these discounted properties, it can only go up right?

Everything is on a pendulum and I assure you the next generation (the ones Boomers are hoping will buy) are going to go the other way. Its already started, college applications are WAY down..the youngns see the idiotic student loans and college prices along with the lack of “gender studies jobs”..they are figuring it out. It will be the same with RE.

Even IF Im wrong (Im not), whats going to happen? I’ll continue to rent and have the inconvenience of moving once every couple of years while I hoard my cash and never lose sleep over a furnace/burst pipe. If Im right? I avoid a potentially life ruining financial decision.

I follow a GTA realtor on twitter..just this morning she said some guy called her and 3 of her colleagues wanting to sell an assignment. They all said he would be lucky to get $700k..he signed for over $900k. Party’s over, sooner people understand this the better off this country will be.

#71 Ustabe on 01.09.19 at 10:28 pm

The Stanley Wars must end!

Kenny needs your help in Alberta…everyone is quitting on him or lodging complaints with the election commission.

Unified right, my butt.

Everyone: I just read the most amazing news: we can all agree that the fact that Margot Robbie will be doing a live action Barbie movie this year is cause for much happiness.

Look for the happiness!

#72 Blacksheep on 01.09.19 at 10:31 pm

Stan # 64,

“It will blow up in our faces”
——————————
Can’t really argue with that.

But the system is doing its damndest to keep this pig airborne. I thought it was going to come unglued in 2007, a year before Lehman went down.

11 + years ago, I was in full Prepper mode. Gold & Silver. Guns & Ammo. Food & 1000G Water. TP & Booze. Genny’s & Gas. I didn’t need to leave my property for 6 months with 4 adults in residence. When I found Garth’s book: Greater Fool and his website selling generators, it all seemed to make sense.

Until the system, pulled a elephant size rabbit out its ass and kept shit together.

Fool me once…

#73 MF on 01.09.19 at 10:36 pm

#60 Stan Brooks on 01.09.19 at 9:12 pm

Sorry but The guy attacking Stan Brooks was inevitable.

If you want to see why read post 60. Completely incorrect, of course, and runs contrary to every observation a normal human being would see on the ground here.

Moreover, This poster often pollutes the comment section with his hate.

Read that post: “we don’t attract the best and the brightest”.

Hey Stan, do you know ANY new immigrants to this country? Clearly not, since if you did, you would see them succeeeding and working hard. You know, making something of themselves.

The GTA is booming and the city had more to it than house prices. That’s what this blog needs to understand.

Anyone who is bitter, hateful, and envious..who attacks other posters and spouts negative propaganda all day is bound to elicit some blowback.

MF

#74 OttawaMike on 01.09.19 at 10:41 pm

DELETED

#75 fishman on 01.09.19 at 10:45 pm

Ya, big crash in Van west side R/E. Just got my assessment notice in da mail.
2019 Assessment [Class: Business/Residential] As of July 1 2018
Property Value History (combined)
2016 +13%
2017 +20%
2018 +25%
2019 +12%
At this rate I’m gonna have to switch from cream to skim milk on my oats in the morning.

#76 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.09.19 at 10:53 pm

DELETED

#77 Leftover on 01.09.19 at 11:08 pm

Here’s one for you – we made an offer on a house in west van 2 weeks ago at just over 50% of asking (roughly 2013 assessed value). Got an immediate “f-off” from the seller and was told that we are bottom feeders by the listing agent.

Guess what? We took a call last night from that agent “just checking” whether we would be willing to come in at 60%!

Our reply? Nope

#78 For those about to flop... on 01.09.19 at 11:15 pm

Race to 800k

The last time I ran this one from memory someone wrote me telling me that the house was damaged a couple of years back by a fireworks display gone wrong.

Let’s not worry about the structure and instead focus on land value.

The details…

2547 Woodland Dr,Vancouver.

Originally asking 1.05

Now asking 899k

Assessment 1.06

So last year someone bought a liveable house at 720 Woodland for 895k opposite a park.

We also know someone bought a block of land in a East Vancouver for 775k last year in a less desirable part, being the lowest example I could find.

It should go for less than 895k

Still too high for most people’s liking.

After the Spring market this year I’m expecting fireworks…

M44BC

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/2547-woodland-drive

#79 NoName on 01.09.19 at 11:41 pm

Oh the boomers…

But older users skewed the findings: 11 percent of users older than 65 shared a hoax, while just 3 percent of users 18 to 29 did. Facebook users ages 65 and older shared more than twice as many fake news articles than the next-oldest age group of 45 to 65, and nearly seven times as many fake news articles as the youngest age group (18 to 29).

https://www.theverge.com/2019/1/9/18174631/old-people-fake-news-facebook-share-nyu-princeton

#80 april on 01.10.19 at 1:19 am

According to Ross Kay the government is out of leverage to change the direction of the housing market correction… don’t have his exact words in front of me but that’s the gist of it.

#81 Jack Sparrow on 01.10.19 at 2:22 am

My word… Vancouver is really becoming the Mecca of money laundering, financial fraud and corruption, thanks to incompetent law enforcement and financial regulators…

Convicted fraud artist at centre of crypto, cannabis shares scheme — https://www.burnabynow.com/convicted-fraud-artist-at-centre-of-crypto-cannabis-shares-scheme-1.23584032

Crown mistakenly exposed police informant, killing massive B.C. money laundering probe — https://globalnews.ca/news/4816822/exclusive-epirate-crown-exposing-police-informant-killed-b-c-money-laundering-probe/

#82 Dolce Vita on 01.10.19 at 2:59 am

#3 AGuyInVancouver & Garth

I agree and history supports you BOTH about what is to come for 416 RE. It will DEFLATE and it takes MANY, MANY years to recover. Look at the chart, yet again, of 416 RE prices corrected for inflation using TREB data (link below).

Find me ONE INSTANCE of when the 416 RE market bounced back from a mild price correction? There isn’t any.

https://i.imgur.com/3lzZ1IO.jpg

Two things you can conclude from the above chart price peaks:

1) The higher the price peak, the LONGER it takes for prices to recover vs. the long term average price trend.

2) People DESPAIR pushing price drops below the long term average price trend and again, it takes a LONG time for prices to recover (history idealized by the 4 Psychological Phases of Asset Bubbles chart, see far right side of the chart, link below).

https://i.imgur.com/d95XmQI.jpg

—————————————————-

Welcome to human nature. They never learn, including Pasalis.

#83 NoName on 01.10.19 at 3:01 am

Interesting visualization, what country haz the most gold reserves.

https://twitter.com/EDadoun/status/1083176740334125056?s=20

#84 Dolce Vita on 01.10.19 at 3:16 am

#10 marcus
#17 Ignition

Paul Joseph Watson @ Prison Planet makes his money by being the:

KING OF SCORN

on YouTube (and some on Twitter).

I have him (along with CNN, CTV, CBC, MSNBC, Fox et. al.) in my “Entertainment” browser folder.

He is scornful towards modern architecture, new wave feminism, the Progressive Left, China’s social points, anti-free speech, non-Brexit supporters, Elizabeth Warren, …you name it.

Anything in the current mainstream that pisses people off, expect a YouTube video minutes later from the King of Scorn. I guess people love scorn (+1 MM subscribers), WELL, as long as it does not come calling on their doorstep.

Everyone TALKS TOUGH on the Internet BUT ALAS few measure up to that in real life.

PJW is that talk tough scornful voice on the Internet and being well paid for it.

#85 Howard on 01.10.19 at 5:04 am

Is this a joke? In London people are worried about a housing crash because prices dropped – wait for it – 0.5% in 2017 and 0.8% in 2018.

https://www.theweek.co.uk/london-house-prices

#86 Howard on 01.10.19 at 5:18 am

And, mostly, why is the average crappy, unrenovated detached house on a dodgy street still priced at $1,145,000 when the median household income is $79,000?

———————————————

Because it isn’t the average joe buying those crappy homes. It’s wealthy Boomer speculators and foreign buyers with laundered money.

Vacuous, unsusported comment. You add nothing to this forum. – Garth

#87 Howard on 01.10.19 at 6:40 am

#6 Ignition on 01.09.19 at 4:28 pm

Welcome to the blog Mr. Rennie! How’s your friend Krooked Kristy doing these days?

Everything you stated is equally true of Australia. Yet the Sydney and Melbourne markets are now down 10% each from their peaks with no signs of stopping. That’s 10% average – the detached segment is down by far more.

Australia is the best correlate to Canada – lax lending rules, FOMO-indoctrinated populace, extremely high immigration, record high debt. It also has LOWER interest rates than Canada (1.5% versus Canada’s 1.75%). And yet, real estate there is tanking.

What makes Canadian housing so special that you believe it can overcome what Australia apparently could not?

Australian mortgage rates increase again tomorrow (January 11) to the 4% level. – Garth

#88 To-Howard-84 on 01.10.19 at 6:52 am

Don’t worry Howard. He is as disconnected from reality as Nancy and Chuck.

#89 Stan Brooks on 01.10.19 at 7:38 am

DELETED (Excess posting)

#90 Stan Brooks on 01.10.19 at 7:42 am

Ah, and it is really funny how the same people who tell you that you should pay a premium to live in a supposedly wealthy and advanced economy also tell you that high prices when measured to income are also justified by some places apparently becoming money laundering Meccas and the law becomes practically non-enforceable in such places.

Amazing read of the bible by the devils.

#91 Jane Lava Lava on 01.10.19 at 7:47 am

When you say ” taxes aren’t going nuts” are you referring to the cat food eating seniors who are deferring taxes to stay in their homes? While Jimmy and Jane hunker down in the bsmt waiting for granny to kick off how many of the know that before moving upstairs as Lords of the Manor that the deferred taxes that granny hid from them will force the sake of the house and leave them homeless?

https://vancouversun.com/health/seniors/property-tax-deferrals-by-seniors-grows-53-per-cent-in-four-years

#92 Tater on 01.10.19 at 8:06 am

If you look at the US as an example, sales numbers peaked in the fall of 05, but prices didn’t start their slide until spring of 07.

In Canada, our sales peaked in in Q2 of 16, and got a huge bump in Q4 of 17 ahead of the stress test. That stress test also caused prices to fall as the marginal buyers were removed from the buying pool or had to drop the amount they planned to spend. The resulting price drop was not driven by the normal market dynamics that we would see when a bubble bursts, but were instead a function of regulatory intervention.

My GTA centric take is that this leave us now, 2.5 years after sales volume peaked, in a very precarious position. Rates have risen, speculators are withdrawing from the market, and almost everyone who bought at peak house is underwater. A subset of those peak house buyers were specs, who took 2 year mortgages to keep payments low. Those mortgages will need to be rolled in the summer, and I expect that is when things get interesting.

Ironically, it seems the stress test prolonged the bubble AND caused the first leg down. It will also exacerbate the decline in prices as buyer have had purchasing power taken away. By the time this kicks off, there won’t be enough time before the election to get regulatory changes made.

I sold my last place in Spring of 2016, and decided to try out a couple of neighborhoods before buying again. I expect I’ll be looking to buy in the early winter of 2020.

#93 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.10.19 at 8:21 am

@#74 Leftover

ahahahaha
Good one.
You should have countered with 49% of the listed price just to get the point across…..
:)

#94 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.10.19 at 8:32 am

@#79 Jack Sparrow

Crown mistakenly exposed police informant, killing massive B.C. money laundering probe — https://globalnews.ca/news/4816822/exclusive-epirate-crown-exposing-police-informant-killed-b-c-money-laundering-probe/

*******

Yeah, as soon as the Trial was killed I wondered if they were protecting an informant or the informant was gone.

Either way the Keystone Cops toss out a trial where the “alleged” criminals were washing “$1 billion dollars a year through casinos”.
I’m sure thats just one of many scams out here.
The BC Liberal Govt ran this province down the gutter and into the ever deepening cesspool.
The NDP have inherited an unbelievable mess that will take years and millions in costs to , hopefully, clean up.
But I doubt it.
Former Premiers and Ministers should be rotting in prison.

#95 The real Kip on 01.10.19 at 8:36 am

So sales are down, listings are down, prices up and affordability is worse than ever. It’s only a problem if you didn’t buy in the past 2-10 years.

#96 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.10.19 at 8:39 am

@#6 Wet Gun Powder

“Sorry, but 2019 will see rising prices again.”

*****

And I thought Smoking Man was off his meds.

#97 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.10.19 at 8:45 am

And just when you thought the Brexit negotiations couldnt get any worse we have…….

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-labour/get-behind-new-election-to-break-brexit-deadlock-says-uks-corbyn-idUSKCN1P32MU

Jeremy Corbyn , an avowed socialist who believes the govt should Nationalize all major industry. Who belives all private industry should be run by Union committees .
Who has publicly called Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez “a hero”.
Who admired Stalin.

Corbyn as Prime Minister. What a nightmare.

#98 Garth Vader on 01.10.19 at 8:53 am

“Yep. Rutting season is coming. This is when realtors emerge from wintering in their A7s, blinking against the strengthening sun, gaunt from months of eating crow and stale listings, hungry for fresh commissions.”

Haha love the language Garth. Your blog gives me a good daily chuckle. Keep up the great work. Love the insight. It’s like a daily life lesson.

#99 Howard on 01.10.19 at 9:27 am

#86 To-Howard-84 on 01.10.19 at 6:52 am
Don’t worry Howard. He is as disconnected from reality as Nancy and Chuck.

————————————-

I just watched their response to Trump’s address. Reminded me of mannequins in a haunted house. Creepy.

#100 Ship sailed on 01.10.19 at 9:29 am

For GTA real estate . More people navigating to the GTA- fact. Rent INCREASING, another fact . Mortgage rates to stabilize .

Anyone who thinks GTA real estate will ‘correct’ from current numbers either has an Agenda or is ignorant to facts

#101 not 1st on 01.10.19 at 9:41 am

Immigration has support in Canada, provided its done in the right legal manner through our screening and application process. That support goes out the window when people jump the border and then get millions in supports.

Immigrants that can help the country, merit based and who have a reasonable path to self sufficiency. Cost of living is too high and our taxes too oppressive here to have people just end up dependent. This is the dangerous turn our immigration system is taking.

#102 Phylis on 01.10.19 at 9:53 am

#60 TO, hmmmm, the engineer got schooled.

#103 PastThePeak on 01.10.19 at 9:53 am

The housing market might have stabilized for now, given the pause in BoC hikes, fixed mortgages likely to come down a bit, and the economy & employment are still ok & good.

But stable / slightly rising is a far different market than FOMO based on belief of getting rich with your house. It is one thing to take out an $800K mortgage (completely maxing out your financial capability & consuming all of your savings) with the belief your house value will rise 15% or more per year – but completely different if you think of it as just $800K of debt, without HELOC growth to play with. Completely different calculation. Now it is about “do I want to, and can I afford to, buy a house as a place to live”.

My expectation is that when the next cyclical recession hits (whenever that is), the CAD housing market in the frothy cities will take its next step down & this is when the larger drops will occur. The effects of leverage on the way up will reverse with more downward prices.

#104 Fish on 01.10.19 at 9:56 am

$96K in federal funding to help improve ‘safety and quality of water’ in Mishkeegogamang First Nation

Funding will cover up to 50 per cent of the project
CBC News · Posted: Jan 09, 2019 5:32 PM ET | Last Updated: January 9

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/thunder-bay/mishkeegogamang-water-plant-upgrade-1.4971447

#105 Godth on 01.10.19 at 10:02 am

#95 crowdedelevatorfartz
clutch your pearls and get the vapors!
“Recent polls show an astonishing 83% in favour of nationalising water, 77% in favour of electricity and gas and 76% in favour of rail. It is not just that this represents a general fall in trust in business. The privatised utilities are felt to be in a different category: they are public services. But there is a widespread view that demanding profit targets have overridden public service obligations. And the public is right.”
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jan/09/nationalise-rail-gas-water-privately-owned

you neoliberal free market fundamentalists had your day and you blew it the way you always do – greed. crawl back in your cave and pound your chest alone.

#106 dharma bum on 01.10.19 at 10:25 am

Families are squeezed for disposable income, keeping them out of the housing market. – Garth
——————————————————————–

It’s all very clear:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7DeOQE5KfqQ

#107 Victor on 01.10.19 at 10:47 am

The realtors still do not get that their best chance for sales to improve is lower prices. Expecting FOMO buying again in the current conditions is a dreaming. They should present negative moments in their reports as well so that people do not wait for prices to jump again, but list more today rather with lower prices – more sales as a result.

#108 SimplyPut7 on 01.10.19 at 10:57 am

It’s not over, just wait until the love affair with condos is over for speculators and tenants who can afford to move onto better buildings.

Imagine being in a building where people pay $1500+ a month for a 400 sqft for studio condo and getting this email:

‘Please note that not closing the garbage chute’s door will allow vermin to travel into the building through the tunnel. It also creates odour leaks into the corridors of the floor.’

Is this a result of Airbnbs in the building, bad tenants, lazy owners – who knows. I do know if someone can afford to rent a one bedroom for $1800, they can definitely afford to move into a better kept building once the 70,000+ condos are completed in Toronto over the next 4 years.

#109 not 1st on 01.10.19 at 11:02 am

Obviously Pelosi is not long for the speakers chair. She seems to be losing it. Deer in headlights on camera, mumbling, incoherent etc. It was telling that the new kids in the congress felt the need to give their own unsanctioned rebuttal to trump. Anyone can see there is a revolt brewing there.

If trump rides out the storm, the dems are going to become even more triggered and the push would be on Pelosi to step out so they can really go on the attack. If trump falters and the dems retake whatever, that group will be emboldened to force their socialist agenda and trigger a revolt that way.

Wrong blog. We don’t care. – Garth

#110 Ogopogo on 01.10.19 at 11:25 am

My blood boils when I see rat-realtors trying to talk up the market. There are a few good ones out there, but the majority are filthy rodents spreading the financially deadly disease of FOMO.

Who, other than the Bearded One and a few others (Ross Kay), is exposing these vermin to the light of truth?

#111 IHCTD9 on 01.10.19 at 11:31 am

I think the future of the West is really going to see a lot of changes as viewed by Boomers and Gen X’ers in the next couple decades.

I like reading about sociological trends, specifically demographic trends, and relations between the sexes, and about the rise of Women in Western society. These are boat rocking developments, and some pretty fascinating reading – even if a lot of it is educated guesswork as to where it’s all headed and what it means.

One fairly recent revelation is that while it’s well understood that marriage is declining in the West, it is now evidently concentrated mainly among the “poor” where single living is increasing. These days, “well off” educated Women are marrying well off educated Men – and sailing off into the sunset with a big bankroll.

Women who have a higher income, and higher education are now MORE LIKELY to be married than their poorer uneducated sisters. This is a first ever development – historically, higher educated/earning Women would be LESS LIKELY to be married. This behavior is expected to continue, and is also expected to pound “wealth inequality” up the scale several more notches.

This goes hand in hand with Women having long demonstrated a preference for a Partner who is “better” than themselves. It also matches nicely with the proven declining financial prospects for Men in the West. Women have never set the bar so high, yet Men have never been less eligible than they are now.

It even jives with the conscious decisions Western Men and Women are making to just skip marriage altogether. The importance of marriage is waning in general. There needs to be a promise of more than just love these days for marriage to be a draw (ie money/security).

There’s a lot more tied into this topic, but it is looking more and more like the future holds some pretty insane statistics. Huge numbers of single mothers – like over half of all children born. Perhaps 60-70% of the entire population living as singles, fertility dropping to 1.0 or below, and wealth being acutely concentrated at a speed never before seen among the most successful in society. Overall, the strain on government services will increase, but the need for increased revenues will be very hard to fill.

Looking at these prospects – those who are successful in the West had better get dual Citizenship somewhere else just in case. It couldn’t possibly be long with this kind of voting base before some downright lunatic policies are in place.

#112 KLNR on 01.10.19 at 11:48 am

Friend just rented out his one bed condo in downtown Toronto for $2300. 600sqft
Feel sorry for folks who have to rent in the city

#113 JB on 01.10.19 at 12:33 pm

#106 SimplyPut7 on 01.10.19 at 10:57 am

It’s not over, just wait until the love affair with condos is over for speculators and tenants who can afford to move onto better buildings.
Imagine being in a building where people pay $1500+ a month for a 400 sqft for studio condo and getting this email:
‘Please note that not closing the garbage chute’s door will allow vermin to travel into the building through the tunnel. It also creates odour leaks into the corridors of the floor.’
Is this a result of Airbnbs in the building, bad tenants, lazy owners – who knows. I do know if someone can afford to rent a one bedroom for $1800, they can definitely afford to move into a better kept building once the 70,000+ condos are completed in Toronto over the next 4 years.
………………………………………………………………….
That is one of the problems air B&B’s are everywhere, in every condo. Everyone says our building is all owners and its well taken care of. You don’t know your neighbours and you sure as hell don’t know their agenda re: their property rentals. Every condo building has rats and roaches. Its just a fact of high rise communal living! Just ask the condo board to see if Orkin is on the accounts payable list.

#114 Ronaldo on 01.10.19 at 12:42 pm

#105 Victor on 01.10.19 at 10:47 am
The realtors still do not get that their best chance for sales to improve is lower prices. Expecting FOMO buying again in the current conditions is a dreaming. They should present negative moments in their reports as well so that people do not wait for prices to jump again, but list more today rather with lower prices – more sales as a result.
————————————————————–
I think the big problem with realtors is that they are heavily invested in real estate themselves and don’t want prices to go down and will say anything to try and prevent that. They will probably end up being some of the biggest losers in this game.

#115 Mattl on 01.10.19 at 1:00 pm

Still don’t understand the value of a short term lens on what is a long term hold in RE. Most Canadians own 3-4 homes in their life, so 8-12 year hold on average. And 40-50% of Canadian have zero balance mortgage.

Sure it sucks for those that bought in spring 2017 and are trying to sell in fall 2018. I feel bad for that 0.01% of Canadians. But longer term holds on RE, in the major markets, to date have been lucrative. I just shake my head at all the doomers predicting financial ruin for homeowners – overwhelming majority have significant equity.

What you can expect is a) construction to grind to a halt creating inventory issues. Unlike Phoenix or Vegas, there are not thousands of unsold homes that will go to foreclosure b) Canadians clutching their wallets tight. This is already happening, RE is king in this country and folks will do everything they can to keep their house. Consumer spending has ground to a halt, next 12 months are going to be ugly.

So ya, RE prices for sure have more room to move down but so what? 15/10/5 year values are still way up. Who cares is some goof that bought on spec needs to get out and takes a bath. I mean even if homes go back to 2014 levels, is the guy that bought in 2014 really in a lot of trouble?

People move, on average, every six years. More often in urban environments. The bulk of the typical family’s net worth is in a house, and legions of people have borrowed against that equity. Price changes matter. – Garth

#116 KLNR on 01.10.19 at 1:29 pm

#56 akashic record on 01.09.19 at 8:43 pm
#31 KLNR on 01.09.19 at 6:43 pm

@#23 marcus on 01.09.19 at 5:56 pm
#17 Ignition “Clearly you like to regurgitate the tweets of one ‘Paul Joseph Watson @ Prison Planet’ and make tenuous linkages to a perceived decline in society with an unpercetable decline in hot Canadian real estate markets.”

I don’t tweet. I have family in Germany. I travel a lot. I have eyes. I have a background in medical/Neuro. Society is being modified. If you cannot see that when the APA comes out and states that “traditional” male attributes are a Pathology then YOU have the problem. LOL! as stated before ….. Invest accordingly.
_________________________________________

I hear where you’re coming from Marcus, but to be honest you come off sounding a little crazy.

—-

See it for yourself, before making your own little psychological assessment. Then you would not need to pull it from where it should not come from.

https://www.apa.org/about/policy/boys-men-practice-guidelines.pdf
—————————————————

Dude! Next to Stan and SM you’re the most delusional poster on here.

#117 Mattl on 01.10.19 at 1:37 pm

#108 Ogopogo on 01.10.19 at 11:25 am
My blood boils when I see rat-realtors trying to talk up the market. There are a few good ones out there, but the majority are filthy rodents spreading the financially deadly disease of FOMO.

Who, other than the Bearded One and a few others (Ross Kay), is exposing these vermin to the light of truth?

———————————-

Why would this make you so mad? Car salesmen talk up cars, RE talk up houses, advisers tell you its always a good time to invest, etc, etc ,etc. Would you really expect Realtors to do anything different? And frankly anyone that bought into the RE nonsense from 2000-2015 has done very well.

The market will do what it will do, no matter what the sales guys say.

And fwiw I have had bad experiences with Realtors, I find them mostly useless, but I’ve never been talked into buying a house by one. Do people really read a Realtor press release or Tweet and run out and buy a home.

#118 Mattl on 01.10.19 at 1:56 pm

People move, on average, every six years. More often in urban environments. The bulk of the typical family’s net worth is in a house, and legions of people have borrowed against that equity. Price changes matter. – Garth

I’m in full agreement that people that move every 6 years should not be buying homes. I’d be interested in seeing the data behind that stat, and how often homeowners move. I suspect renters, students etc move at a much higher frequency.

I agree price changes matter, but only to homeowners that either bought recently or have borrowed heavily against their equity. I’m not sure what percentage of the market that is – we do know that half of Canadians have no mortgages. Maybe there are lots of idiots that are in way over their heads – wouldn’t surprise me but my peer group will be pretty immune to any downturn – maybe I have my blinders on.

#119 Blacksheep on 01.10.19 at 2:07 pm

Ryguy # 68,

“Everything is on a pendulum”
—————————–
This was exactly my point.

This is, ‘It’s never different’ rational.

I believe Western capitalism no longer benefits the population like it once did, when good paying manufacturing / union jobs, supported tax revenues and our society. An oversupply (billion people) of cheap global labour, combined with unfettered global trade, has taken a heavy toll on Western working class incomes in the last 30 years.

The above scenarios has the system taking drastic measures (10 yrs of zirp) in an attempt to keep the 70 year old credit cycle in tact. The Western populace (and business) has come to rely on ultra cheap credit and the need for a two income household to maintain the lifestyle their parents had and most expect. All this with out getting into the many coming economic disruptors, a few being: Technological change and useless Western carbon taxing.

I currently have all the RE exposure I desire as I have no illusion that prices will move up anytime soon. I am more of the opinion that prices will continue down a bit, then go sideways for awhile.

What happens next? I really have no idea.

I do know this: the next 20 years, will look nothing like, the last 20 years. I believe using outdated benchmarks (3 X income or 7% returns) as economic reference points is a very risky strategy.

Human nature, never changes, but situations can and clearly have…

#120 Steven Rowlandson on 01.10.19 at 2:27 pm

A soft landing in the housing market is a crime against humanity because it guarantees homelessness and or
extreme debt slavery and prevention of family formation.
Definitely genocide. Genocide does not end until real estate goes down by 95% and stays down for centuries.
The idea that real estate is an investment and a way to get profits has to die for the good of the species.

#121 Headhunter on 01.10.19 at 3:46 pm

#109 IHCTD9 on 01.10.19 at 11:31 am
I like reading about sociological trends, specifically demographic trends, and relations between the sexes, and about the rise of Women in Western society. These are boat rocking developments
_______________________________________
Basically here is the skinny without the sugar
men used to be 3 things “protector, provider, worker bee”

1st two are gone now as the Gov’t will/has stepped in.. read into that what you will. Hence not a lot of desire for a guy to grind out a shitty job on the Plantation. Look at the Herbivore men of Japan.. thats whats coming.

actually no its already here…

#122 LivinLarge on 01.10.19 at 4:03 pm

“The realtors still do not get that their best chance for sales to improve is lower prices.”…of course they realize it. It’s why they pump up price to potential listings to get that listing, I was married to an agent years ago and she said many times that she didn’t want to sell houses, only list them, she got paid the same if she listed or sold and all she had to do was be at the agency office each day taking incoming calls.

Agents also know that if they get a slow selling listing price decrease of $20 K then THEY only lose a couple of hundred if it sells but the vendor loses well over a thousand.

#123 LivinLarge on 01.10.19 at 4:13 pm

Google the rental vacancy rates in Ontario and be prepared to swallow hard.

For the whole of the province we’re looking at under 5% and under 3% in places with easy commute to TO. The new qualifying rules and rate increases are keeping people from moving and really keeping the first time buyers off the RE ladder.

I don’t know anything about soft landings etc but without a robust first time buyer’s market, very few 2nd + buyers are marooned where they are.

#124 Downturn on 01.10.19 at 5:21 pm

#116 Mattl – No group is immune from a capital tax free devaluation on their principal residences during a downturn. There may be exceptions depending where they live. I could accept a downturn on a percentage basis for a comparative home elsewhere, but never in the GTA.

#125 Joe Bloggs on 01.10.19 at 5:31 pm

#114 KLNR on 01.10.19 at 1:29 pm

LOL!!! Look who is talking, you better get back to terms a definitions:

https://www.dictionary.com/browse/delusional

#126 jess on 01.10.19 at 5:42 pm

e commerce

https://news.bloombergtax.com/daily-tax-report-international/alibaba-purges-200-000-tax-avoiding-vendors-as-nations-crack-down

====
danske bank scandal
The case is Plumbers & Steamfitters Local 773 Pension Fund vs Danske Bank A/S et al, U.S. District Court, Southern District of New York, No. 19-00235.

#127 jess on 01.10.19 at 6:08 pm

17 December 2018, the 73 Session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA 73) in New York adopted the UN Declaration on the Rights of Peasants and Other People Working in Rural Areas. Now that the declaration is an international legal instrument, La Via Campesina (LVC) and its allies will mobilise to support regional and national implementation processes.

The final vote of today represents the culmination of a historic process for rural communities. With 121 votes in favour, 8 votes against and 54 abstentions, the forum of UNGA representing 193 Member States, ushered in a new promising chapter in the struggle for the rights of peasants and other rural communities throughout the world. The 17-year long process, initiated by the international peasant movement La Via Campesina, supported by numerous social movements and allied organizations, such as FIAN and CETIM, has been a great source of inspiration and has strengthened the peasant communities in all regions of the globe.

=========

After NAFTA fight, Trump threatens another trade battle with Central America

popular -ism
before it became a zeitgeisty one-word explanation for everything – a small group of academics was studying it, trying to figure out exactly what it is and what lessons it holds for democratic politics. The debate they have produced is, like many academic debates, knotty and self-referential – and will always live in the shadow of the muddled media and political discourse. But it helps us see that the idea of populism is something more than just a centrist fairytale.”

https://www.theguardian.com/news/2019/jan/10/we-the-people-the-battle-to-define-populism

e commerce

https://news.bloombergtax.com/daily-tax-report-international/alibaba-purges-200-000-tax-avoiding-vendors-as-nations-crack-down

====
danske bank scandal
The case is Plumbers & Steamfitters Local 773 Pension Fund vs Danske Bank A/S et al, U.S. District Court, Southern District of New York, No. 19-00235.

#128 akashic record on 01.10.19 at 6:18 pm

#114 KLNR on 01.10.19 at 1:29 pm
_________________________________________

I hear where you’re coming from Marcus, but to be honest you come off sounding a little crazy.

—-

See it for yourself, before making your own little psychological assessment. Then you would not need to pull it from where it should not come from.

https://www.apa.org/about/policy/boys-men-practice-guidelines.pdf
—————————————————

Dude! Next to Stan and SM you’re the most delusional poster on here.

Good company: they think. Must be irritating for you.

#129 saskatoon on 01.11.19 at 2:34 am

a wage is a price, garth.

it is the price of labour.