One and done?

No rate hike this week from the The Ploz. When the Bank of Canada does its thing on Wednesday it will talk a lot but do nothing. Events of the last few months have backed central bankers off that tightening agenda they were pursuing, and our guy (Stephen Poloz) will certainly be taking his tone from that of the Fed boss (Jay Powell). Last week stock markets roared ahead when the key US banker said (a) rate increases will be tempered and (b) he’s not quitting, even if the big orange guy demands it.

As a result, markets are expecting the Fed to move once, maybe twice, in 2019 – about half the number of increases forecast a few months ago. Meanwhile the resolve Powell is showing in the face of political pressure is exactly what investors longed for. Without central bank independence, we’re all pooched.

Anyway, here are the odds for Canadian interest rates, thanks to the pointy heads at Scotiabank. You can see that even by the end of the year Poloz will stand pat. A safe bet would be one increase in 2019. And no cut.

So the news is mixed. Job creation has been strong in the last few months, and consumer spending is robust. But real estate has been wobbly and Alberta’s cap on oil production will chill things. Inflation’s under control (cheap gas helps) and the economy is growing modestly. Canadian stocks are bargains and expected to have a much better 2019. But, led by China, the global economy is slowing. And, of course, our biggest trading partner is led by a president as predictable as a weather vane.

What does this mean for real estate, mortgages and you?

The prime rate at the banks of just under 4% will be about 4.25% later in 2019. No big deal. Expect a slight bump in your HELOC rate, but far less than previously feared. The mortgage stress test minimum will creep up to almost 5.6%, although there is a possibility five-year mortgages at the banks will be lower by a quarter point (or more) once the spring rutting season starts.

(By the way, a rate pause from the BoC may also take some pressure off the feds – who have been actively considering putting a cap on the stress test – it’s an election year, after all. If the cost of money is unlikely to jump in 2019, Ottawa will leave things as they are. However, a return to 30-year insured amortizations is still possible.)

The impact on real estate? Pffft. A nothingburger. Higher mortgages and the stress test have already taken a big bite out of affordability, punted many first-time buyers and pushed up prices at the lower end of the market. Nothing much changes from here. A spring rate sale may goose sales a little, but the general economic condition will have a larger impact. If jobs and wages are plumping, people are willing to swallow more debt. But don’t count on it.

Vancouver, Victoria, Calgary, Edmonton and everything west of Winnipeg is in various stages of decline. The GTA has already seen (as detailed here on Friday) a massive drop in average detached prices. But 2019 should be fairly stable. Montreal continues to creep ahead, likely being the most under-valued market in the country. East of that, Halifax is the only place awake, and also a bargain.

What does the rate pause do to borrowing strategies?

Quite a bit.

If the central bank tightening cycle is ending sooner than expected (looks that way), the screaming need to protect yourself with a locked-in five-year mortgage rate just evaporated. Why pay 4% when you can borrow at 3.3% with a variable? If the bankers have reached what they consider to be a “neutral” level – where the cost of money is neither encouraging or discouraging economic growth – the risk of being whacked with a big rate increase upon renewal is largely gone.

Also remember that variable mortgages can usually be turned into fixed-rate ones easily, if the above scenario changes. Plus it’s cheaper to get out of a VRM than a five-year loan. And if you can borrow money to finance your houses at barely more than 3%, this leaves more cash lying around to invest in financial assets – which are currently tasty and on sale.

There. A puppy picture. And a whole blog without saying ‘Trump’.

 

138 comments ↓

#1 Daughters of Odin on 01.07.19 at 5:26 pm

We must limit interest rates to sustainable levels; to prevent housing bubbles.

#2 Guy in Calgary on 01.07.19 at 5:28 pm

Real estate is becoming the boring asset it is supposed to be. Nothing wrong with that. I anticipate some mortgage rate declines are on the horizon.

#3 not 1st on 01.07.19 at 5:31 pm

Thought this article was about Trudeau. One can only hope.

#4 JuliaS on 01.07.19 at 5:45 pm

Cheap gas? What cheap gas? It costs the same to fill up as it did in 2008 back when oil was at $147 per barrel. Oil prices went down. Gasoline stayed pretty much were it was.

#5 Soren McHardy on 01.07.19 at 5:46 pm

Garth, preferreds soared today. Canadian economy is running hot, and you said Canada follows the US when they hike rates. After Powell hiked in December, would it not make more sense for Poloz to hike now and take the risk of runaway inflation off the table?

#6 Mirza on 01.07.19 at 5:46 pm

Real Estate has reached to the point where even interest rate cut will not support .High tide is gone RE is off the tide .

#7 Yellow Vest on 01.07.19 at 5:49 pm

So much for raising rates as we have been hearing for what? 5 years now?

Rates have increased five times in Canada. – Garth

#8 Brian Ripley on 01.07.19 at 5:59 pm

The GTA has already seen (as detailed here on Friday) a massive drop in average detached prices. But 2019 should be fairly stable. Garth

My Housing Price Momentum Chart (Y/Y change) for Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto Single Family Detached Price and the TSX Real Estate Index is up with December data
http://www.chpc.biz/housing-price-momentum.html

I suggest there will be further SFD price deterioration in Toronto unless there is a sudden reversal to the upside in the TSX Real Estate Index; yes the index has been in rally mode since January 3rd… up 2% since Jan 4th. But cash buyers on the TSX can turn on a dime, not so in the world of bricks and mortar.

If you look at my Toronto housing chart http://www.chpc.biz/toronto-housing.html
you will see total sales have been below average since the summer of 2017. Its going to take some heavy lifting by a new set of FOMO buyers to move this market in my opinion.

Notice also that all 3 sectors, SFD, T-House and Condo prices are all headed down.

FOMO appears to be turning into FOGI (fear of getting in).

#9 acdel on 01.07.19 at 6:00 pm

2019 will be a defining point, good, we all need some clarity!
Let the chips fall where they may and just move on.

#10 Good Dog on 01.07.19 at 6:11 pm

This is not related to today’s column. Posted for your listening pleasure.

The Dogs They Really Miss You – Austin Lounge Lizards

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=IunQTjwZf1g

#11 Andrewski on 01.07.19 at 6:16 pm

Re: #3, Whereas I thought today’s blog subject would be about DJT…

#12 Investx on 01.07.19 at 6:18 pm

And the age of historically low rates continue.
Hello, Japan!

#13 OttawaMike on 01.07.19 at 6:18 pm

10 years since the peak of the GFC and we still can’t normalize rates.

Everything is just fine!
Right Garth?

#14 Edward Bear on 01.07.19 at 6:18 pm

JuliaS:

Regular grade gasoline is 89.6 a litre in Cowtown today. Alberta already has a Provincial carbon tax in place.

#15 MF on 01.07.19 at 6:22 pm

Central banks fan the flames of suspicion by halting the hikes too early and caring about what politicians say.

Good for Powell for marching forward of course, but why are we stopping early? It just makes our economy appear weak -too weak to “handle” normal rates. It also gives credibility to all the cynics, gold bugs, and everyone critical of the whole current economic system who will now point to the ultra low rate policy as the failure it looks to have been.

Smart move Poloz../*thumbs up*

MF

#16 the ryguy on 01.07.19 at 6:23 pm

You would still be a fool to buy RE in Canada. Compared to the rest of the world with the exception of Australia and maybe Japan we have INSANELY expensive RE. Just ask yourself are there that many higher paying jobs in Canada? No..if anything any new company coming into Canada has to factor in what wages they need to pay to have a happy, steady and productive work force. I knew Amazon coming to Canada was a farce, why would they? Insane tax rates plus sky high RE..it ain’t happening.

To those of you that did well on the way up and got out..congratulations. Anyone still holding onto hope of appreciation is foolish, it ain’t happening.

#17 MF on 01.07.19 at 6:24 pm

“#7 Yellow Vest on 01.07.19 at 5:49 pm
So much for raising rates as we have been hearing for what? 5 years now?

Rates have increased five times in Canada. – Garth”

-Yeah but a puny .25 each time. It’s like having a hundred pennies and being proud of a your dollar.

MF

#18 acdel on 01.07.19 at 6:34 pm

#14 Edward Bear

I fueled up this morning at the Esso in Montgomery at 86.4 or 86.9, grey matter; good price though.

#19 Rate Increase on 01.07.19 at 6:40 pm

#17 MF – Its the percentage of increase overall that counts upon the existing mortgage rate. The cost of money becomes significantly higher.

#20 Samuel on 01.07.19 at 6:40 pm

The old fed guy Alan Greenspan said today that ideally the world would have zero tarrifs. And I think that is where we are heading. Global trade like the new tpp deal will ensure corporate growth and tame inflation as we import cheaper goods. Add productivity growth through technology and it feels like 1990 again, but we didn’t know it then.

#21 Godth on 01.07.19 at 6:47 pm

so when the next serious crisis inevitably happens the wizards will have a bare minimum buffer to play with before we’re back to zirp and nirp. should take a month, maybe two, great work.

#22 For those about to flop... on 01.07.19 at 6:47 pm

After narrowly avoiding my semi- annual referendum about whether or not I am allowed to post on this blog,I guess I will continue.

Amazing how many people think that they should determine what other people read.

Instead of using the day of rest to help other people out, it’s now see how much trouble you can cause on a day off.

Sunday has turned into a day for sooks.

I ain’t got time for that.

People are thirsty for information.

Onwards, upwards…

M44BC

“In Debt and Scared of Risk: Millennials Compared to Gen Xers and Baby Boomers.

Imagine taking a snapshot in time of Baby Boomers, Gen Xers and Millennials just as each generation was entering the workforce. On average, how would the total assets and debts compare? That’s the premise behind our newest visualization.

We took a deep dive into some recent Federal Reserve data to investigate the differences in debt and assets between Millennials, Gen Xers and Baby Boomers. First off, we broke down the types of assets each generation holds in aggregate, whether that’s equity in a home, other financial assets like stocks, business assets, equity in a vehicle and other real estate. We then compared the total debt each generation carries on average in red across the bottom, letting you easily get an idea for the relative balance of assets and income for successive generations.

It’s important to bear in mind researchers have adjusted these numbers for inflation. This lets us make a fair comparison, for example, of home values between several different decades. Interestingly enough, Millennials in 2016 on average had more equity in their homes compared to Baby Boomers in 1989, but much less than Gen Xers in 2001. In other words, despite entering the job market right after the housing crash and their reputation for delaying when they purchase a home for the first time, Millennials are actually doing just fine as homeowners.

Things get even more interesting in other asset classes. Millennials are much better savers than people from previous generations, averaging $18,800 in the bank compared to $16,800 for Gen Xers and a measly $6,600 for Baby Boomers. Part of the explanation for why is that previous generations tended to grow their wealth in the form of small businesses. In fact, according to the Small Business Administration, young people today are several times less likely to start their own companies compared to other generations. That’s because the Great Recession discouraged risk taking in the minds of many Millennials, forcing them to be more conservative with their money.

That being said, the total debt loads across each generation tell an interesting story too. Cars have gotten much more expensive, forcing people to put more of their paychecks toward building equity in a vehicle than ever before. Lots of Millennials also take out massive student loans to fund higher education. And that’s because states are routinely decreasing allocations for public institutions, not to mention the increases to tuition at private schools. College is still seen as the best way to improve future earning potential, even if lots of college grads end up in jobs that don’t require a degree. The debt load for Millennials is therefore higher at $84,600 than for Gen Xers ($79,400) and substantially more than Baby Boomers ($59,300).”

6 January 2019

Visualization

https://howmuch.net/articles/assets-debt-3-generations

#23 For those about to flop... on 01.07.19 at 6:49 pm

Recent sale report.

I have spoken about the leading edge of Burnaby detached dipping below a million,how about I show you what you get for your money at the moment.

The details…

7923 Graham Avenue,Burnaby.

Originally asking 1.21

Just sold for 975k

Assessment 1.24

So that’s where we are.

Not much of a place to look at.

Certainly not a Graham cracker…

M44BC

2018-07-24 : $1,219,888
2018-10-08 : $1,100,000
2018-11-05 : $1,049,000

https://www.zolo.ca/burnaby-real-estate/7923-graham-avenue

#24 gas prices on 01.07.19 at 6:55 pm

#4 JuliaS on 01.07.19 at 5:45 pm
Cheap gas? What cheap gas? It costs the same to fill up as it did in 2008 back when oil was at $147 per barrel. Oil prices went down. Gasoline stayed pretty much were it was.
———————-
WooHoo – inflation!

Look for low gas prices at gasbuddy.com, pick up some tsx60 while you are at it.

#25 debts loads on 01.07.19 at 7:03 pm

The inherent problem today is that the average earned incomes are not rising enough in relation to debt repayment ability. This in turn leads to a financial crisis of not having enough net income to pay the existing bills.

#26 Biddy on 01.07.19 at 7:05 pm

So those of us who warned that the dire rate increase warnings were nothing more than fake news, a scare tactic to herd sheeple into closed fixed-rate mortgages, were right.

Lesson should be learned: when everyone is bleating on about the rate increases that are surely coming, it’s nothing more than the financial industry banksters working to boost fixed rate mortgages. Happens with some regularity.

Watch for it: rates will recede within 1-1.5 years. Those who panicked and went fixed, well, enjoy your lock in.

When it comes to growth, we’re all Japan now–the only difference being that we can’t innovate, and we buy high, sell (our resources) low, and import consumers.

It should work for another generation or so, but by then, that T2 will have been proven right: Canada will definitely be (in a) post-nationalist state…

#27 Ryan on 01.07.19 at 7:23 pm

#1 please go away you bigoted pos.

#28 and the budget will balance itself on 01.07.19 at 7:27 pm

CPD is up today..

#29 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.07.19 at 7:29 pm

@#7 yellow sheeple
“So much for raising rates as we have been hearing for what? 5 years now?
Rates have increased five times in Canada. – Garth”
*****

Gee, another “yellow vest protester” following the herd…..Let me guess…. massive university debt and a job completely outside the degree field?
Oh the unfairness of it all….

#30 acdel on 01.07.19 at 7:30 pm

#22 For those about to flop

Great post Flop! You are a smart person and realized that there many out here that like your postings, there all always haters, constructive criticism is part of the norm and helpful.

Regarding your posting it just goes to show that every generation has had a lot to go through (war, recessions, high interest rates etc) and the young ones’ seem to be learning from the past. Nothing is fair out there; but if we can learn from each other as opposed to the hate mongering that is being spewed through the media then what is wrong with that??

We can all learn from each other! Keep it up Flop, much appreciated!

Good-night all!

#31 Yellow Vest on 01.07.19 at 7:31 pm

Yellow Vest on 01.07.19 at 5:49 pm
So much for raising rates as we have been hearing for what? 5 years now?

Rates have increased five times in Canada. – Garth

1.25 % in 5 years…..big deal. NOT.

In 18 months. – Garth

#32 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.07.19 at 7:33 pm

@#18 acdel
“I fueled up this morning at the Esso in Montgomery at 86.4 or 86.9……”
++++
Montgomery Alabama…or Montgomery Texas?

#33 What I Don't Know Is Nothing on 01.07.19 at 7:39 pm

In a global swamp of massive debt, only idiots would think that rates would rise significantly. The looooooong term trend is lower rates.

#34 oaky on 01.07.19 at 7:44 pm

The BoC and Fed are not our friends under any stretch of the imagination.

The real reason for the rate pause…recession…depression…and all asset classes will reach all time lows as they remove money out of the system which propped everything up.

QE#4 might be around the bend…

#35 AK on 01.07.19 at 7:44 pm

“Canadian stocks are bargains and expected to have a much better 2019.”
=====================================No doubt. Market will start pricing in the removal of T2 and his amateur advisers, as October 21 approaches.

#36 10% Percent Rates on 01.07.19 at 7:45 pm

You watch! They are coming back – quicker than you realize!

#37 acdel on 01.07.19 at 7:48 pm

This is awesome!

MADE IN CANADA!

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/edmonton-splitter-dacro-industries-1.4968053

#38 SoggyShorts on 01.07.19 at 7:49 pm

#111 Boomer Bill on 01.06.19 at 9:33 pm
#106 Glengarry Girl on 01.05.19 at 8:56 pm
#105 Boomer Bill
It is much, much more difficult for a young person starting out in the GTA to achieve financial success with the extraordinary cost of housing. I bought and had paid off my first home in the GTA before I turned 30. I could not have done that today with the same home. Hence why those starting out today have a much more difficult time becoming financially successful than we boomers were.
*************************
The problem is that you aren’t making a fair comparison.
When you were 20, could you have bought and paid off a house in a Canadian city that cost 3x as much as a house in the average Canadian city?
With jobs being more mobile than ever in history, I just can’t sympathize with those who choose to live in a place where the cost of living is so much higher than elsewhere. I feel like the boomers were just better at math.
“Hey this place is twice as expensive.”
“Oh…does it pay twice as much?”
“No.”
“Is the quality of life twice as good?”
“No.”
“Ok then…buh-bye.”

I went with the old man to his local pub a while back and did a quick survey of his buddies, and not a single one of them was born in that city. Most lived and worked in multiple cities over their careers.

#39 AM in MN on 01.07.19 at 7:51 pm

Garth,

It isn’t all about the Fed funds rate, which only has limited control over short term rates. The balance sheet and bank stress tests (central planning) are very important to both supply and velocity of money.

The issue for the Fed, and the world, is how much to shrink the balance sheet. By dumping $50B/month into the world markets, the prices rise and the corporate borrowers and banks get squeezed out and need to hoard cash. It was the other way around during QE when banks would borrow at 0%, lend to overleveraged real estate buyers and hedge funds, then sell the loans to the Fed at full value for fresh printed cash.

It is/was a morally unjust way to conduct business, and hurt average savers and wage earners to the enrichment of the moneyed classes.

The BoC does it a bit differently as by law there is no free market banking in Canada.

Looks like Powell is going to buckle on the $50B/month “auto-pilot”, so I wouldn’t suggest he’s as independent as you might hope. At least they’re moving in the direction of less central planning for smaller banks…we’ll see.

The central planners at the ECB hasn’t even started yet, and Italy will make sure they don’t.

Loose money for a while longer, plan accordingly.

#40 Out Of Work CEO, Will Travel on 01.07.19 at 7:55 pm

There is no doubt remaining that we are now a credit driven economy. The Japanese style economy of stagnant wages; stable or falling prices and an aging society where the under 40’s have not known inflation or interest rates over 5% seems eternal now. The aging demographic of baby boomers over 60 hankering for some GIC yield can feast on Governor Poloz’s inoffensive remarks about our not too hot; not too cold steady as she goes can’t break the habit economy. Being Canadian is not for sissies.

#41 For those about to flop... on 01.07.19 at 7:57 pm

Pink Snow falling in West Vancouver.

These guys just chopped 200k off and are now fighting for a Pink Draw.

The details…

1280 Kings Ave,West Vancouver.

Paid 3.02 April 2016

Originally asking 3.38

Now asking 3.18

Assessment 2017. 2.89

Assessment 2018. 2.56

So they are still expecting the buyer to pay the closing costs.

Could happen,but doubtful in this bracket at the moment.

B.C assessment just gave them some homework to do as well.

They will be hoping that they can be one of the select few that squeezes out of the trap without a blemish.

Lot of carnage over that way.

Some people have and will continue to lose over a million dollars in their speculation attempts.

All the King’s horses and all the King’s men…

M44BC

https://www.zolo.ca/west-vancouver-real-estate/1280-kings-avenue

#42 Midnights on 01.07.19 at 8:00 pm

Obama and Hillary on border security and immigration.

https://www.facebook.com/369309166748535/posts/788536168159164/

#43 not 1st on 01.07.19 at 8:08 pm

I guess I was wrong. 2019 is going to be a great year. Slowing housing in the GTA, 2 more rate increases and Trudeau campaigning on a carbon tax along with deficit spending for another term. Should increase his popularity by a lot.

Anyway, if you are offended by Trump, then may suggest you support the policies of the democratic congress new rock star, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. She is a real progressive firebrand. You know that wonderful policy of 70% tax on millionaires should over well with the Hollywood crowd and even the Clintons who make more than that every year. Loved the look on Anderson Coopers face when she dropped that bomb. He probably makes more than few mill a year.

#44 acdel on 01.07.19 at 8:16 pm

#32 crowdedelevatorfartz

Umm, Calgary, Alberta, Canada!

http://www.calgarygasprices.com/

#45 AGuyInVancouver on 01.07.19 at 8:24 pm

#12 Investx on 01.07.19 at 6:18 pm
And the age of historically low rates continue.
Hello, Japan!
_ _ _
We should not look upon Japan’s stagnant economy with admiration. There is obviously some link between permanently low interest rates and stagnation in the economy (excluding real estate) economists haven’t deciphered.

But I’m calling BS on inflation figures, I’ve seen the cost of everything go up, from my daily S’bux to my business inputs. There are also real labour cost increases in Vancouver’s overheated marketed and property taxes increasing commercial rents on triple net leases. These are being passed on to the consumer, so how exactly is the BoC measuring inflation? Not in any way that’s capturing real world data!

#46 wicked as it seems on 01.07.19 at 8:25 pm

#20 Samuel on 01.07.19 at 6:40 pm
Perfect post, and your absolutely right!

#47 Boomer Bill on 01.07.19 at 8:26 pm

#38 Soggy Shorts

“The problem is that you aren’t making a fair comparison. When you were 20, could you have bought and paid off a house in a Canadian city that cost 3x as much as a house in the average Canadian city?”

Your above question is muddled. Please clarify. The scary part is that in the good ol’ days, Toronto prices in normal hoods were on par with homes in other parts of the province. I need not point out the huge disconnect with house prices between the GTA and the rest of the province today. My point was that buying a home in Toronto was easy back in the day. There was no need to have to relocate elsewhere because of housing costs.

#48 young & foolish on 01.07.19 at 8:36 pm

“When it comes to growth, we’re all Japan now–the only difference being that we can’t innovate, and we buy high, sell (our resources) low, and import consumers.” — Biddy

Great description! But we do have the rule of law (so far), lots of clean water and plenty of land (as well as resources). Canada is still a safe place to live.

However, Japan could be an instructive example of what could befall us. Where’s the growth?

Another one of my Grandad’s friends says: “If you have some money, consider the law of diminishing returns …. or, a bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush. Is it worth suffering a big loss just to get that little extra bit of growth?”

#49 yvr_lurker on 01.07.19 at 8:39 pm

#38 Soggy

With jobs being more mobile than ever in history, I just can’t sympathize with those who choose to live in a place where the cost of living is so much higher than elsewhere. I feel like the boomers were just better at math.
———————————

Well, I don’t think you understand that there are a large class of professional jobs for which good opportunities only exist in major cities (some of which now have uber-expensive housing as compared to years ago). High level lawyers in international firms, financial sector workers, university profs in our leading schools, medical researchers (BC center of excellence) and surgeons, R and D engineers and computer specialists, and the list goes on. If you are a nurse, teacher, or in the trades, your job may be much more portable and you can move to smaller cheaper communities. Unless you have a trust fund, or independent inherited wealth, making a go of it in some of our major cities where the high-level professional jobs are concentrated is much harder than 20 years ago. This is a major issue in my view.

#50 Tom from Mississauga on 01.07.19 at 8:46 pm

Yah Garth, auto sales in Canada are tumbling too. Down 6.5% y/y the last 4 months. No rate hikes in 19.

#51 Yukon Elvis on 01.07.19 at 8:47 pm

Yellow Vest on 01.07.19 at 5:49 pm
So much for raising rates as we have been hearing for what? 5 years now?

Rates have increased five times in Canada. – Garth

1.25 % in 5 years…..big deal. NOT.

In 18 months. – Garth
…………………………….

It is also true that the BOC rate was .25% in 2009.
Today it is 1.75%.
That is a 1.5% increase in 10 years.
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2009/04/fad-press-release-2009-04-21/

#52 SimplyPut7 on 01.07.19 at 8:47 pm

Expect a slight bump in your HELOC rate, but far less than previously feared.

————————

How long do we pretend the number of condos and houses being constructed or renovated in major cities all over Canada are owned by people who will qualify for a mortgage and/or have the means to pay off their debt?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MXH-4exTuMo

#53 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.07.19 at 8:49 pm

@#37 acdel
“This is awesome!
MADE IN CANADA!”
++++

My goodness….An 800,000lb ….300ft long phallic symbol…… meandering through the wilds of a sub zero Canadian winter……be still my heart……

#54 Nonplused on 01.07.19 at 8:51 pm

“even if the big orange guy demands it.”

“a president as predictable as a weather vane.”

“And a whole blog without saying ‘Trump’.” (sic)

By my count you said “Trump” 3 times.

#55 For those about to flop... on 01.07.19 at 8:51 pm

Pink Snow falling in Vancouver.

Featured these guys a couple of times and it’s getting beyond painful for them.

The owners of this Chicken Coop are running out of feathers.

The details…

4213 w 14th ave,Vancouver.

Paid 2.88 February 2016

Originally asking 3.07

Now asking 2.19

Assessment 2.86

Some of the price history is below, they actually started at 3.07 in November 2017.

So all through December and into the new year, they had it on for 2.3 willing to lose 25% after expenses, and the market just made them suffer a little bit more.

If it goes for current ask they will lose close to 30%, blowing past the cluster I have accumulated at 25/26%

Won’t be the biggest dollar amount but will set a new percentage record.

Nothing much going to change the current downward trajectory with a different government ruling the roost…

M44BC

Price Event
Jan 7, 2019 $2,199,900 Price Reduced
Nov 21, 2018 $2,300,000 Price Reduced
Oct 22, 2018 $2,700,000 Price Reduced
May 22, 2018 $3,030,000 Listed For Sale

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/4213-west-14th-avenue

#56 Nonplused on 01.07.19 at 8:55 pm

#14 Edward Bear on 01.07.19 at 6:18 pm
JuliaS:

“Regular grade gasoline is 89.6 a litre in Cowtown today. Alberta already has a Provincial carbon tax in place.”

How is this a good thing? Alberta is suffering and can’t afford a carbon tax at any oil price.

Anyway don’t expect it to last, the long term trend for oil prices is up. They have to rise to the point where shale oil is economic eventually. Not sure when, but it will happen.

#57 The kill on 01.07.19 at 8:57 pm

So much for “lock in now!!!!” Good thing I didn’t listen or otherwise I would have been paying too much

Nope. When the advice was give fivers were the same price as VRMs now. – Garth

#58 [email protected] on 01.07.19 at 9:02 pm

#53 crowdedelevatorfartz

Did you even read the story???

Oh, never mind!

#59 expat on 01.07.19 at 9:02 pm

One must understand that the pension funds worldwide are collapsing under the weight of zerobound rates.

Cripes CPP was buying shopping malls for return…

Rates will rise – they have to or most pension funds will calve…

The fallout of that is torches and pitchforks versus some deadbeat real estate specs going bankrupt.

The market liquidity scare certainly appeared real last month….

The question will be this

how fast will they raise?

They basically caused a 20% pullback in the markets..
Friday’s mea culpa from the Fed boss was a clear sign they knew they turned up too fast.

Theere certainly will be a break as they need people to adjust to 7% interest rates by 2020-2021

#60 Renter's Revenge! on 01.07.19 at 9:04 pm

#53 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.07.19 at 8:49 pm
@#37 acdel
“This is awesome!
MADE IN CANADA!”
++++

My goodness….An 800,000lb ….300ft long phallic symbol…… meandering through the wilds of a sub zero Canadian winter……be still my heart……

==========

Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar :)

#61 Chaddywack on 01.07.19 at 9:09 pm

I still think mainland Chinese buyers influence in Vancouver was larger than people on this blog and Garth thought, but less than the media led us to believe.

If they were really the leading cause why then did they all but dry up in Vancouver when rates went up by one and a bit……if they were paying cash there is no good reason they should have stopped buying, but they did (or were they really even that much of a factor?)

I’ve looked at houses recently and not ready to pounce yet, but I still find it interesting that so many new homes in Vancouver recently were built targeting the mainland Chinese demographic. Every newer house I’ve looked at has a “wok kitchen” so builders definitely drank the koolaid as well. I’m not sure what I would do with a wok kitchen so it doesn’t appeal to me…..I guess that’s the risk when you build a house for one specific demographic and now are stuck trying to sell to non-existant buyers

I guess I could brew my beer in it…..?

#62 DON on 01.07.19 at 9:21 pm

#26 Dolce Vita on 01.06.19 at 5:51 pm

Like I said yesterday, Ryan’s analysis is logical and cogent.

The American Consumer decides when there is a recession and not Mr. Market. They just spent record amounts at Christmas. Fatter profits means stock gains and dividends…a good thing for America and investments there.
**************

There is the possibility that the American/Canadian consumer was using their credit cards and recent gains from the housing uptick in both countries. I want it now and Christmas are powerful events.

I agree – there is something lurking in the system that is not good.

We can’t raise rates anymore as the system won’t take the load. But things are great? and economies are humming along? People thought the dudes from The Big Short were crazy until it happened.

Economists are questioning China’s GDP of 6.5%. Graduate students in China who received job offers at top companies in December were informed a week later they had been laid off. If the only thing hampering China is a temporary US Trade War, why is China having so many internal credit problems. Or could this be a long time in the works?

In Australia, housing is faltering and the economy is humming, and they have yet to raise interest rates, same seems to be going on in Hong Kong.

Maybe just maybe the average person got priced out of the average house and 2.5% on $700K – $1Mil is quite a different story than 2.5% on 200K – 500K.

Now for real estate it is about psychology, more and more stories about people holding back on buying and that action can and usually does cascade. Now that deceleration has been proven and witnessed by those with leveraged skin in the game human nature piles in on the downside.

The stock market is scared of something, maybe it is finally too hard to ignore. Not be a doomer just gauging the state of affairs. Recency bias (head in sand).

#63 DON on 01.07.19 at 9:28 pm

#61 Chaddywack on 01.07.19 at 9:09 pm

I still think mainland Chinese buyers influence in Vancouver was larger than people on this blog and Garth thought, but less than the media led us to believe.

If they were really the leading cause why then did they all but dry up in Vancouver when rates went up by one and a bit……if they were paying cash there is no good reason they should have stopped buying, but they did (or were they really even that much of a factor?)

I’ve looked at houses recently and not ready to pounce yet, but I still find it interesting that so many new homes in Vancouver recently were built targeting the mainland Chinese demographic. Every newer house I’ve looked at has a “wok kitchen” so builders definitely drank the koolaid as well. I’m not sure what I would do with a wok kitchen so it doesn’t appeal to me…..I guess that’s the risk when you build a house for one specific demographic and now are stuck trying to sell to non-existant buyers

I guess I could brew my beer in it…..?
*****************************

It could have been the FOMO/foreigner memo the industry and media were repeating that lit a fire under citizens. No doubt Vancouver has a larger Canadian Asian population (most born in Vancouver) to make it look as if foreigners were buying on mass, maybe at one point in time it was the foreign money that boosted the market (hindsight will tell). Anyways we are at a standstill people who work in Van can’t afford the lifestyle. Lots of credit debt out there.

Save and invest. Listen to Garth’s investing logic, he is showing a tried and true approach. Sometimes boring is good!

#64 acdel on 01.07.19 at 9:31 pm

#60 Renter’s Revenge!

Yep, a mighty fine job in ALTA, CANADA; cuban cigar with a nice glass of scotch, for me Johnnie Walker (to each there own), we appreciate a good accomplishment, good job to all involved!

#65 DON on 01.07.19 at 9:33 pm

#25 debts loads on 01.07.19 at 7:03 pm

The inherent problem today is that the average earned incomes are not rising enough in relation to debt repayment ability. This in turn leads to a financial crisis of not having enough net income to pay the existing bills.
****************

If that happens I am 100% sure the Bank of Canada, the 1 % and all levels of government will step up and pay off everyone’s debts so we can start buying crap again.

Funny note: you can now attend seminars that help you permanently sever your google account.

#66 Stan Brooks on 01.07.19 at 9:36 pm

#13 OttawaMike on 01.07.19 at 6:18 pm

10 years since the peak of the GFC and we still can’t normalize rates.

The whole economy has become a giant Ponzi scheme that depends mostly on housing and finance sector that supports it. Nothing else, despite some irrelevant services.

Big difference from Japan that has huge export sector and their real estate crashed almost 30 years ago, could not still recover and they had to support zero interest rate policies including purchase of government bonds form BoJ.

Interest rates have increased 5 times? From what, 0.5 % floor to the ‘astronomical’ 1.75 %? Give me a break.

Cost of living is increasing (north of 8 % yearly), so are taxes.

The ruling incompetents and the useless finance sector are realizing how badly the economy is screwed and are entering the damage control phase at all levels, including ‘independent’ media.

Stupidities like:

Canadian dollar hits one-month high on bets Bank of Canada will keep neutral target

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/inside-the-market/market-news/article-canadian-dollar-climbs-to-four-week-high-as-oil-adds-to-rally/

That is right folks, the sheeple is told that due to lack of interest rate increases the loonie is actually getting stronger. Not the stabilization of oil prices.

They are also saying things that as inflation increases, the loonie is becoming stronger.

Similar to the propping of TSX by snake oil salesmen:


Outlook 2019: Experts are turning bullish on the ‘really undervalued’ TSX

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/outlook-2019-experts-turning-bullish-really-undervalued-tsx-191302952.html

Nobody is talking about profits based on peak debt that is simply not sustainable.

If debt is to be removed from equation P/E would probably be north of 25 for TSX.

‘defensive’ companies like telecoms that are based on screwing already indebted population with mediocre 3rd world country services.

Note: They expect investors to abandon the rest of the world that is actually growing at least twice our rate without any debt gymnastics and come here, what a delusional bunch of idiots.

It seems we are entering the abyss, actually falling from the cliff, sinking the Titanic while the music still plays.

Remember: The seats in the life boats are limited.

#67 You know on 01.07.19 at 9:38 pm

Lalala suck and blow it’s always the same game one way or another or in reverse

#68 That crazy canuck on 01.07.19 at 9:40 pm

Job creation is not strong, unless you think government hiring of otherwise unemployable migrants (Liberals term not mine) into union jobs across provinces to keep the new ghettos functioning until election time is your idea of growing the economy. That’s where you’re Hundred billion dollar deficit is going. The election math is sticky, Trudeau needs his migrant votes and the unions to keep his base at 30%. All he needs is his billion dollar CBC subsidy to work and a few hundred million in American propaganda and voila, the 37% threshold of his current majority might hold.

But, look at the masses of growing unemployed in the private sector and resources sector, grown by the hundreds of thousands as EI benefits expire in western provinces, hence, welfare for unemployable and a disappearance from the stars for Canadians no longer counted. The economy mix numbers out of Ottawa are a fraud. CTV and CBC are already broadcasting hate for Trudeaus opposition. The UN mandate will shift a million migrants into Canada in 2019, guess who’s picture is on their welfare cheque?

#69 Stan Brooks on 01.07.19 at 9:52 pm

#59 expat on 01.07.19 at 9:02 pm
One must understand that the pension funds worldwide are collapsing under the weight of zerobound rates.

Cripes CPP was buying shopping malls for return…

Rates will rise – they have to or most pension funds will calve…

No, the rates will not rise. That is the peak – 1.75 %.

There is no economy left. We ate the remains of it through housing capital miss-allocation.

In the next 15-20 years rates will stay near zero, even could go negative while we are told that ‘inflation’
is sub 2 % (in reality 8-10).

Capital markets could ‘grow’ by 3-4 % in nominal terms, giving the illusion of hot economy.

Current economy is based on excessive debt. This can not continue. The bill is overdue. Who will pay it? The savers and people on fixed income.

And no, people will never ever be able to afford to retire. Oh, they will ‘retire’ due to the lack of jobs but with completely different ‘lifestyle’ than years of hard work justify. Fight for an ever shrinking pie, folks and we are the losing side.

#70 Where's The Money Greedo? on 01.07.19 at 9:56 pm

So Imperial Metals’ Mount Polley Mine (majority shareholder billionaire Murray Edwards, co-owner of the Calgary Flames), with the 5 year statute coming up for charges to be laid in the August 2014 dam breach disaster, has now said they are shutting down the mine in May because copper prices are too low.
It’s funny because in the last 5 years years copper prices have been lower. I wonder why they didn’t shut down then?
Methinks it’s a typical strong-arm tactic by a bully company that was given kid gloves by the prior BC Liberals, just read the links I have included in the bottom.

“Imperial Metals history
The controlling shareholder of Imperial Metals is billionaire N. Murray Edwards. He donated half a million dollars in campaign contributions to the B.C. Liberal party since 2005 and helped organize a $1-million fundraiser for B.C. Premier Christy Clark’s re-election.”

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/mount-polley-suspended-1.4969241
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Polley_mine_disaster

Who wants to bet that NOTHING happens to Imperial since Edwards is now glad-handing in the UK where former BC Premier Gordon Campbell ran to when he got ousted.
A couple engineers are getting their hand slapped but so far nothing!!!
Birds of a feather.

#71 akashic record on 01.07.19 at 9:56 pm

#59 expat on 01.07.19 at 9:02 pm

One must understand that the pension funds worldwide are collapsing under the weight of zerobound rates.

Rates will rise – they have to or most pension funds will calve…

The fallout of that is torches and pitchforks versus some deadbeat real estate specs going bankrupt.

Not an issue for government pensions in countries where the central bank can print money to make up the missing interests.

Politicians will always volunteer this option, instead of facing torches and pitchforks. Happy end for everyone, even for the deadbeats.

#72 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.07.19 at 9:58 pm

#226 Joe Bloggs on 01.07.19 at 3:46 pm
#153 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.07.19 at 2:28 am

LOL!!!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hungarian_border_barrier

Now, who is an idiot here?
————-
A fence is not a wall.
Even a cow knows that.

#73 Stan Brooks on 01.07.19 at 10:02 pm

#15 MF on 01.07.19 at 6:22 pm
Central banks fan the flames of suspicion by halting the hikes too early and caring about what politicians say.

Good for Powell for marching forward of course, but why are we stopping early? It just makes our economy appear weak -too weak to “handle” normal rates. It also gives credibility to all the cynics, gold bugs, and everyone critical of the whole current economic system who will now point to the ultra low rate policy as the failure it looks to have been.

Smart move Poloz../*thumbs up*

MF

===============================

The economy is in the sewer.

If it was hot nobody would bother to tell you that on a daily bases. And the rates would have been north of 8 % with current inflation.

When they tell you all is rosy but their actions do not support their words, this is when you realize that they lie and this is when you run.

It is the trick, the smoke and mirrors of a great robbery act.

Hear that flushing sound? That was our pensions going down the toilet.

#74 Stan Brooks on 01.07.19 at 10:11 pm

#59 expat on 01.07.19 at 9:02 pm
One must understand that the pension funds worldwide are collapsing under the weight of zerobound rates.

Cripes CPP was buying shopping malls for return…

Rates will rise – they have to or most pension funds will calve…

Remember: In addition to screwing small businesses (that of course did not benefit at all his company/sarcasm off; and is already long forgotten), the other key piece of legislation by the french villa guy was the law that allows private companies to restructure their pensions plans and not to pay the amounts they are obligated to in some fake ‘restructuring’ schemes.

#75 Jo on 01.07.19 at 10:12 pm

Flop, Your posts, are so informative, keep them coming. Not many, if any understand and give an honest picture of the LM market like you do.
I amongst many others appreciate your hard work very much.

#76 Ripley's believe it or not on 01.07.19 at 10:16 pm

I am seeing December data for most smaller areas in BC bounce up after about a 17% drop in prices from the summer.

It is a small tick up but could be a turning point as some other metrics have turned positive for the first time in 1.5 years.

Assessed values in most of the BC areas are up about 25-30% over the past 3 years.

If this latest decline starts to recover you won’t ever see those assessed values drop. They will smooth it over.

The game here is rigged. Your best bet is to move out of Canada if you do not own a property.

Rents and/or ownership costs at this point (unless you are getting an inheritance) will obliterate you. Don’t celebrate your dream job when it isn’t enough to pay for shelter in Canada. If you havn’t figured this out now, it will be forced upon you. Anyone under the age of 37 without an inheritance or already invested in shelter will never make it in a Canadian city of 45,000+. Period. End of story. You can’t even afford Kitimat anymore. Find your opportunities in new countries.

#77 paul on 01.07.19 at 10:28 pm

There. A puppy picture. And a whole blog without saying.

There fixed it !

#78 Fish on 01.07.19 at 10:38 pm

More Albertans file for bankruptcy as oil-and-gas sector struggles, expert says

Filings are up 8.4 per cent over the year before, according to new figures
CBC News · Posted: Jan 07, 2019 11:15 AM MT | Last Updated: 9 hours ago

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/insolvency-alberta-oil-gas-1.4968432

#79 Capt. Serious on 01.07.19 at 10:41 pm

A word on doom. There has always been doom on the horizon. Look through past newspapers of the past century and you’ll find plenty of reasons to fear the end of the world. You and you alone can choose to ignore your emotional response and take a cold hard statistical look at how to invest your money. It’s simple, but it is not easy.

Speaking of nothing burgers, I was looking over my annual returns for different accounts and 2018 was not fun, but nowhere near 2008. If you can’t tolerate 2018, you probably have the wrong asset mix for yourself and need to tilt more towards bonds/fixed income.

#80 Mattl on 01.07.19 at 10:52 pm

Consumer spending is not strong, it has been trending down the past year and when Dec numbers are released the won’t be pretty. My company tracks same store sales at 80k Canadian merchant locations and spending is way down the past 3 years. December we saw negative growth.

Auto, boat and RV sales are down as well.

2019 is going to be tight, as home equity evaporates canadians are going to clutch their expendable cash real tight. Going to be a tough run for retailers.

#81 Fed up Moistette on 01.07.19 at 10:52 pm

Send 1000 trucks to Trudeau’s Doorstep next month!! We need pipelines! There are two GoFundMe pages set up to raise money for fuel costs and other expenses along the way:

https://www.gofundme.com/yellow-vest-official-convoy-to-ottawa-2019

Non partisan:
https://wwwthere are two GoFundMe pages set up to raise money for fuel costs and other expenses along the way.

#82 Doug in London on 01.07.19 at 11:02 pm

@and the budget will balance itself, post #28:

Yes, CPD is up as are many other stocks and ETFs. It wasn’t that long ago many “experts” here in the steerage section said the big drop on Christmas Eve was only the start of a much bigger drop to come. It turned out those days leading up to Christmas were a buying opportunity, an awesome way to celebrate the Christmas holiday. Did I mention that I believe in Santa Claus again?

#83 Fish on 01.07.19 at 11:06 pm

RE
72 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.07.19 at 9:58 pm
#226 Joe Bloggs on 01.07.19 at 3:46 pm
#153 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.07.19 at 2:28 am

LOL!!!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hungarian_border_barrier

Now, who is an idiot here?
————-
A fence is not a wall.
Even a cow knows that

*********
Agree idiot, yes my friend …Even a bull should know that

#84 Bob Dog on 01.08.19 at 12:09 am

Does anyone have news on when Christie Clark and her posse of criminals will stand trial for money laundering?

Being a top level government official I honestly believe her family should be stand with her when the sentence is handed down.

She is literal guilty of crimes against the people of British Columbia

#85 Long-Time Lurker on 01.08.19 at 12:26 am

#197 IHCTD9 on 01.07.19 at 11:58 am
So what’s best:

1. Sever lot and build (ie fight with city hall, spend a few thousand and a year minimum, and maybe not get to sever). If I do get the severance, I could put up a nice place for about the cost of what I’d get for the old place. IE, move up for $0.00. However, it would be a gigantic headache start to finish, and no guarantees.

2. Fix up the old house and send the roots down deeper – maybe to the end. Might cost 40-50K (Most labour by me) but would make the place a real sweetheart. Not much headache, not rushed, not too expensive. I like this idea for some reason.

3. Sell and buy another place. This would result in a 250-350K mortgage. 350K would be ~1750.00/mo which is easily afforded, and a 550-650K place is very nice out here. No headache, easy as pie, most expensive option, but no issues paying it. I like this too, but worthy places are few and far between, it would probably be a long drawn out choosing process.

Important financial notes: current house is paid for, portfolio is built and in process, no debt of any kind.

Important local RE notes: Right now, the bang for the buck is in the 600-1 Mil range out here. The higher end. The lower end houses like mine are getting more than what they should IMHO. I’d get 300-350K for my old place, a brand new nice subdivision house is 425K, a brand new house on a rural acre is 525K.

I expect this to continue as these houses are sitting near 100 days on MLS- even with reductions. A great deal on an expensive place may be coming in the next couple years. I feel the gap between building and buying on the bang for the buck front might be razor thin here shortly in the right price range.

>My opinion: If you like where you are now then #2. If not then #3.

#86 Long-Time Lurker on 01.08.19 at 12:31 am

#22 For those about to flop… on 01.07.19 at 6:47 pm
After narrowly avoiding my semi- annual referendum about whether or not I am allowed to post on this blog, I guess I will continue.

Amazing how many people think that they should determine what other people read.

Instead of using the day of rest to help other people out, it’s now see how much trouble you can cause on a day off.

Sunday has turned into a day for sooks.

I ain’t got time for that.

People are thirsty for information.

Onwards, upwards…

>Qui bono? (Who benefits?) They’re real estate agents, Flop.

https://definitions.uslegal.com/q/qui-bono/

Qui Bono Law and Legal Definition

Qui bono or cui bono is a Latin term which literally means ‘as a benefit to whom’. The translation of qui bono is ‘who with good’. It refers to the hidden motive or to the indication that the party who is actually caught for a crime is not the one who originally did the crime. In criminal investigations the rule of qui bono is applied. Qui bono is also applied in cases where an act is done with the intention to gain benefit.

#87 SoggyShorts on 01.08.19 at 2:19 am

#47 Boomer Bill on 01.07.19 at 8:26 pm
#38 Soggy Shorts
Please clarify.
****************************
You said that it’s harder to get a house in TO now compared to when you were 20-30.

What I’m saying is that when you were 20-30 you didn’t choose to live in a city that was 3x as expensive as other cities. (I don’t think there even was one back then)

#88 SoggyShorts on 01.08.19 at 2:24 am

#49 yvr_lurker on 01.07.19 at 8:39 pm
#38 Soggy

With jobs being more mobile than ever in history, I just can’t sympathize with those who choose to live in a place where the cost of living is so much higher than elsewhere. I feel like the boomers were just better at math.
———————————

Well, I don’t think you understand that there are a large class of professional jobs for which good opportunities only exist in major cities (some of which now have uber-expensive housing as compared to years ago). High level lawyers in international firms, financial sector workers, university profs in our leading schools, medical researchers (BC center of excellence) and surgeons, R and D engineers and computer specialists, and the list goes on.
******************************
I don’t see any jobs on your list that don’t exist in 2-4 other Canadian cities or a dozen American ones.
Toronto isn’t special for having 5m people, unique jobs don’t suddenly exist when you hit that number, you just have 5x as many as a city with 1m. Sure there are some incredibly specific exceptions, but if you studied for those, you should have researched where you can work too.

There are options is all I’m saying.

#89 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.08.19 at 2:28 am

@#58 acdel
“Did you even read the story???”

******
Nah, I just looked at the pics………

#90 Dolce Vita on 01.08.19 at 3:37 am

Something is afoot in the Cdn. economy Garth.

People just can’t put their finger on it but are trying. There were some reasonable efforts at that today by people (some of them listed below).

#22 For those about to flop…
#38 SoggyShorts
#62 DON
#69 Stan Brooks

The fact remains, the BoC RATE not going up DOES NOT ERASE the epic debt Cdn’s have accumulated. It is keeping the servicing of some of that debt constant; however, Cdn’s continue to persist adding to that debt.

What I wish StatCan would do (besides posting Unadjusted job numbers) ALSO post the AVERAGE SALARY/WAGE of the jobs created per month in the Labour Force Survey.

Compare that to per capita debt and that will tell the truth if Cdn’s are posturing about their debt load or walking a fine line between meeting obligations or showing up at the Bankruptcy Trustees office (the latter claiming that business is booming as of late).

Garth, the US is fine for a few more years BUT CANADA, NO, there is Disillusionment out there…1/2 the equation for a recession.

The other 1/2 the economy. RE, Oil, Commodities…too many headwinds.

As the above Commenters mentioned, our Service based, Debt fueled, Ponzi Scheme economy will take a hit…it has too.

It’s a matter of WHEN not IF.

If say end of this Qtr, despair by the end of the next Qtr.

As much as I would hate to see that as it will ruin many a dream, the Math does not add up to what we are being told on the economy.

#91 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.08.19 at 3:44 am

Take Wikipedia articles with a grain of salt:
https://blog.wikimedia.org/2013/12/02/legal-victory-german-court-wikimedia-foundation/
Wikipedia is a “service provider” not a “content provider”.
So, think twice before linking articles.

#92 Frank The Tank on 01.08.19 at 6:57 am

GTA RE has been stabilizing and I believe Garth is correct in his assertions of that RE market continuing to do so in 2019.

This is good. Home prices should not be going up 20-30% YOY.

Sorry doomers, no crash coming. Never was coming.

The average detached in 416 has lost 27% of its value since the spring of 2017. Sounds kinda crashy to me. – Garth

#93 MF on 01.08.19 at 7:06 am

#90 Dolce Vita on 01.08.19 at 3:37 am

-Umm Garth’s article refers to central banks as the international unit they mostly are.

BTW, how’s the European Central bank rate?

>https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html

That’s what I thought.

“People just can’t put their finger on it but are trying. There were some reasonable efforts at that today by people (some of them listed below).”

Stan is a troll who looks to have failed at life and seems like a bitter old man.

The others commented on the same international conditions we’ve been moaning about for a decade on here..and yet the economy and house prices have marched forward.

MF

#94 Ace Goodheart on 01.08.19 at 7:09 am

“Security is mostly a superstition. It does not exist in nature, nor do the children of men as a whole experience it. Avoiding danger is no safer in the long run than outright exposure. Life is either a daring adventure, or nothing”.

Can you guess who wrote that? (hint – not me)

#95 dakkie on 01.08.19 at 7:25 am

Global Housing SLUMP From Canada To Australia To China! 2019 Set To FALL Even Further!

https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/global-housing-slump-from-canada-to-australia-to-china-2019-set-to-fall-even-further/

#96 Steven Rowlandson on 01.08.19 at 7:56 am

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/more-people-are-going-broke-in-canada-as-interest-rates-rise-1.1194883

It seems rate increases are starting to become noticeable for some debtors. I think we need to beware of the impulse to ease up on rate increases as showing mercy will just encourage price increases in real estate and other big ticket items. We don’t want to promote bad behavior like genocide via home price inflation do we?

#97 50 YEARS OF MAPLE LEAF INCOMPETENCE! on 01.08.19 at 8:09 am

The average detached in 416 has lost 40% of its value since the spring of 2017 – Garth

And the pathetic Make Believes just lost again, 4-0 to the Predators.

Nashville actually made it to the finals in 2017. Not 1967. This is a competent young franchise. A team that knows how to win against the odds, in an area not dominated by hockey fans. They have to win to pay their bills. Respect.

This shows how close you really are, Toronturds.

So get going, double the HELOC on your overpriced slanty semi, buy some more MLSE tickets and tell yourselves how special you are.

While your real estate market and personal assets melt away.

Bwaahaahaahaahaaaaaaaaa!!!

#98 NYCer on 01.08.19 at 8:13 am

And this is why I am a huge advocate of variable mortgage given the ability to lock in a fixed (although worse rate than would have originally been offered I believe) and if you do have to break the mortgage, a much lower penalty, plus I believe the stats provide evidence that variable mortgages costs less than fixed in the long term.

#99 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.08.19 at 8:18 am

@#92 Frank the Tank
“GTA RE has been stabilizing…”
*****

Is that what we’re calling a falling RE market these days? Stablizing?
Well, methinks the “stablizing” has a lot further down to go…..before buyers want to dip their toes in the water and not get burned.
A $1,000,000.00 mortgage for a particle board, plastic siding house, at even 0% interest is absurd….and people are , hopefully, realizing that fact.

#100 Capt. Serious on 01.08.19 at 8:49 am

And the pathetic Make Believes just lost again, 4-0 to the Predators.

With all due respect to NAS, the game was closer than the score indicates. The last two goals were due to pressing at the end to try to eliminate the 2-0 deficit. Some posts. A called back offside goal. Matthews inexplicably missing prime scoring chances. Yes, TOR didn’t play that well, especially in the 3rd, but it wasn’t a blowout game. Toronto is still two top 4 D away from contending for a cup though, I’ll give you that.

#101 Howard on 01.08.19 at 8:53 am

#38 SoggyShorts on 01.07.19 at 7:49 pm
#111 Boomer Bill on 01.06.19 at 9:33 pm
#106 Glengarry Girl on 01.05.19 at 8:56 pm
#105 Boomer Bill
It is much, much more difficult for a young person starting out in the GTA to achieve financial success with the extraordinary cost of housing. I bought and had paid off my first home in the GTA before I turned 30. I could not have done that today with the same home. Hence why those starting out today have a much more difficult time becoming financially successful than we boomers were.
*************************
The problem is that you aren’t making a fair comparison.
When you were 20, could you have bought and paid off a house in a Canadian city that cost 3x as much as a house in the average Canadian city?
With jobs being more mobile than ever in history, I just can’t sympathize with those who choose to live in a place where the cost of living is so much higher than elsewhere. I feel like the boomers were just better at math.
“Hey this place is twice as expensive.”
“Oh…does it pay twice as much?”
“No.”
“Is the quality of life twice as good?”
“No.”
“Ok then…buh-bye.”

I went with the old man to his local pub a while back and did a quick survey of his buddies, and not a single one of them was born in that city. Most lived and worked in multiple cities over their careers.

——————————————

How many of these “mobile jobs” are there actually? You seem to be speaking of something of which you know zilch.

Canada is way behind on flexible work arrangements. There are very few companies/offices in Canada that will permit full-time permanent employees to work remotely all the time. I’m speaking of proper full-time jobs with benefits and legal protections. Remote working is more common for short-term gigs, but few people want to rely on those for their entire career. The fact is that the mostly Boomer bosses prefer having the plebes around them all day. It’s a boost to their egos to boss people around in person. Doing it by phone, e-mail, or text just isn’t the same.

#102 Howard on 01.08.19 at 9:02 am

I look forward to watching President Trump’s Oval Office address to the nation tonight. It’s good that he’s more aggressively going after the open-borders Democrats. This is a fight he can and will win.

#103 Frank The Tank on 01.08.19 at 9:09 am

#92 Frank The Tank on 01.08.19 at 6:57 am
GTA RE has been stabilizing and I believe Garth is correct in his assertions of that RE market continuing to do so in 2019.

This is good. Home prices should not be going up 20-30% YOY.

Sorry doomers, no crash coming. Never was coming.

The average detached in 416 has lost 40% of its value since the spring of 2017. Sounds kinda crashy to me. – Garth

—————————————
Uh, where are you getting the figure 40%? That is in no way accurate.

You are correct – it was a typo. The correct number is 27.4%. – Garth

#104 BillyBob on 01.08.19 at 9:14 am

#93 MF on 01.08.19 at 7:06 am
#90 Dolce Vita on 01.08.19 at 3:37 am

Stan is a troll who looks to have failed at life and seems like a bitter old man.

MF

===================================

Errr…you do realize come across in virtually every post as a failure in life and a bitter younger man?

I don’t mean that unkindly, but sometimes the irony is too much to resist pointing out. I’m quite certain Stan doesn’t waste a second worrying what you think of him, seems to have a pretty good grasp on his opinions.

#38 SoggyShorts on 01.07.19 at 7:49 pm

The problem is that you aren’t making a fair comparison.
When you were 20, could you have bought and paid off a house in a Canadian city that cost 3x as much as a house in the average Canadian city?
With jobs being more mobile than ever in history, I just can’t sympathize with those who choose to live in a place where the cost of living is so much higher than elsewhere. I feel like the boomers were just better at math.
“Hey this place is twice as expensive.”
“Oh…does it pay twice as much?”
“No.”
“Is the quality of life twice as good?”
“No.”
“Ok then…buh-bye.”

I went with the old man to his local pub a while back and did a quick survey of his buddies, and not a single one of them was born in that city. Most lived and worked in multiple cities over their careers..

===================================

Exactly. Millennials seem to have a hard time grasping that success doesn’t just come and jump into your lap like a puppy. You have to actually have to make changes to achieve it. And those may even include *gasp* leaving your safe cozy home environment for a time.

#105 Frank The Tank on 01.08.19 at 9:19 am

@#92 Frank the Tank
“GTA RE has been stabilizing…”
*****

Is that what we’re calling a falling RE market these days? Stablizing?
Well, methinks the “stablizing” has a lot further down to go…..before buyers want to dip their toes in the water and not get burned.
A $1,000,000.00 mortgage for a particle board, plastic siding house, at even 0% interest is absurd….and people are , hopefully, realizing that fact.

——————————————————-

You guys are delusional. What we saw in 2017 was not normal. Yes sales have declined. Prices, not so much (save for some pockets of GTA). And I’m sure people got caught being greedy and some innocents as well.

416 single detached price went up 1.13% yoy this past December. 2.23% in Peel, 3% in Halton. York is down about 5%, but a lot of that has to do with big pricey palaces that none of us could ever afford.

Par those modest gains with steady low inventory and you have STABILIZATION.

#106 dharma bum on 01.08.19 at 9:23 am

#25 Debt Loads

The inherent problem today is that the average earned incomes are not rising enough in relation to debt repayment ability. This in turn leads to a financial crisis of not having enough net income to pay the existing bills.
——————————————————————-

This is a ticking time bomb that everyone seems to continuously disregard and ignore. It’s the elephant in the room.

All this talk about how the economy is “hot” and how interest rates have been “hiked” several times is hyperbole.

After all of the rate hikes, we have a bank rate that is, what, 125 basis points higher than where it started?

Before calculating the “percentage increase” that this represents, keep in mind that the rate is still BELOW 2%.

Unheard of. It’s like free money.

That has since proven to be enough to implode our so called “hot” economy.

The reality is that we are on thin ice. The economic situation is precariously shaky, notwithstanding the cherry picking of statistics that can be conveniently used to make certain points in a narrowly focused argument.

Yes, some jobs have been created – baristas, burger flippers, retail clerks, daycare assistants, Uber drivers, waiters, etc. Not exactly the crowd that will get consumerism rolling or entry level houses changing hands like hotcakes. They’re not going to make a dent in the financial markets either.

The economy sucks. Another 100 basis points in the interest rate would see to its ruin. Poloz, although lacking in charm, charisma, and personality, is no fool.

The only thing maintaining a detectible pulse in this tepid economy is low interest rates. Debt is high and is getting higher.

The cost of money will need to remain obscenely cheap into the foreseeable future, and debt will need to continuously rise in order for this economy to survive. Nobody has any money. It is only cheap borrowing that sustains the illusion of a “robust” economy, and allows most people to live to see another day.

Unfortunately, somewhere down the road (and nobody really can predict exactly when) the music will stop.
The day interest rates “normalize” will be the day of a MASSIVE reset.

The decision to raise rates further in Canada will be externally influenced (i.e., when there is pressure to force Canada to act due to currency issues, or the like). We won’t act autonomously. The BOC knows how bad of a personal debt pickle most Canadians are (i.e., drowning in a quicksand pool of HELOC, mortgage, auto loan, and credit card debt).

It will be mid 2020 before we see if there is even the possibility of another 25 basis point “hike” in the rate. If we can’t handle it today, we’ll see if we’re able to handle it better in 2020.

The way things are going economically in Canada, sky-high consumer debt, low incomes, combined with an election year for our milquetoast PM makes me think that a pullback is possible.

#107 IHCTD9 on 01.08.19 at 9:58 am

#56 Nonplused on 01.07.19 at 8:55 pm
#14 Edward Bear on 01.07.19 at 6:18 pm
JuliaS:

“Regular grade gasoline is 89.6 a litre in Cowtown today. Alberta already has a Provincial carbon tax in place.”

How is this a good thing? Alberta is suffering and can’t afford a carbon tax at any oil price.

Anyway don’t expect it to last, the long term trend for oil prices is up. They have to rise to the point where shale oil is economic eventually. Not sure when, but it will happen.
_____

Going to be a looong time before refineries look to the WCS/Venezuelan type heavy crude feed stock for making fuels. Not when OPEC and the USA are pumping out light sweet stuff for bottom dollar. The only reason they ever made gasoline from that sour heavy stuff is because at the time, weak global oil supply had driven the price per bbl so high (140+/bbl), that WCS was actually competitive. Lack of supply was the main driver for that price escalation, and this problem has been solved.

US fracking changed everything. IMHO, WCS is going to need to see huge increases in global oil consumption, and/or major production declines from big time producers like SA/Russia/USA before WCS starts looking good again to anyone who makes fuels.

#108 Godth on 01.08.19 at 10:03 am

i just pulled a tick off my dog, pulled one off last week and one a couple weeks ago too. winter, where art thou?

#109 Frank The Tank on 01.08.19 at 10:21 am

#103 Frank The Tank on 01.08.19 at 9:09 am
#92 Frank The Tank on 01.08.19 at 6:57 am
GTA RE has been stabilizing and I believe Garth is correct in his assertions of that RE market continuing to do so in 2019.

This is good. Home prices should not be going up 20-30% YOY.

Sorry doomers, no crash coming. Never was coming.

The average detached in 416 has lost 40% of its value since the spring of 2017. Sounds kinda crashy to me. – Garth

—————————————
Uh, where are you getting the figure 40%? That is in no way accurate.

You are correct – it was a typo. The correct number is 27.4%. – Garth

———————————-

That is still inaccurate.

“Following the peak in March 2017 prices fell by 18% over the next four months, a very rapid decline for the housing market. But then something a bit unexpected happened, the downward momentum stopped. Since July 2017 house prices have remained relatively stable aside from some seasonal volatility.”

– and that is GTA, not 416.

As stated, it is correct for 416 per TREB’s published stats. Go fight with them. – Garth

#110 Stan Brooks A Lifetime of Incompetence on 01.08.19 at 10:25 am

#97 Stan “Madman: Brooks Masquerading as Toronto Hater

It would be interesting to know what causes you to hate Canada’s largest and North America’s third largest metropolis so much. Missed opportunities like huge capital gains free profits on principal residences while all you have to stare at is your rubber padded room in the insane asylum? Perhaps you are divorced and were taken to the cleaners by your ex? Perhaps you have friends in Toronto who are loaded while you scrape the bottom of the barrel? What is it Stanley? Enlighten us on your hatred for Toronto….

#111 David Paquette on 01.08.19 at 10:37 am

I think the future of the Alberta oil sands is good. Although it will remain the favourite whipping boy of climate change activists things are being done to improve production practices. It takes time with the sands. Bitumen will be the go to guy for bunker fuel, diesel and kerosene.

You want goods from China, ships use bunker fuel. You want produce from California/Mexico, trains and trucks use diesel. You want to sun yourself, jets use kerosene. All these forms of transportation are terrible polluters of C02 and it not the fault of the oil sands. Those are the ones that need to clean up their act.

I don’t know if it is true but I read an article that existing ships produce more C02 than all the cars in North America and they are exempt from carbon taxes. Only time will tell – I don’t deny climate change but I see global cooling as the current climate threat. I think the greatest damage to spaceship earth has been caused by human harvesting of resources (see tragedy of the commons). The rise of activism due to the selfish greed of few disturbs me. I will be on the side of the pitchforks if push comes to shove (it).

#112 not 1st on 01.08.19 at 10:39 am

So Trumps policies aren’t working. Only 7 million job opening in the US.

https://business.financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/us-job-openings-fell-in-november-to-still-strong-6-9-million

Thank god because after Trudeau destroys Canada we can go and work for Trump

#113 Where's The Money Greedeau? on 01.08.19 at 10:48 am

Re: #106 dharma bum on 01.08.19 at 9:23 am
#25 Debt Loads

Yes, some jobs have been created – baristas, burger flippers, retail clerks, daycare assistants, Uber drivers, waiters, etc. Not exactly the crowd that will get consumerism rolling or entry level houses changing hands like hotcakes. They’re not going to make a dent in the financial markets either.
#84 Bob Dog on 01.08.19 at 12:09 am
Does anyone have news on when Christie Clark and her posse of criminals will stand trial for money laundering?

Being a top level government official I honestly believe her family should be stand with her when the sentence is handed down.

She is literal guilty of crimes against the people of British Columbia
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
This is the reason why the gov’t hasn’t squished the cockroach drug dealers because they are the only ones keeping the economy going.
Just like in Mexico some years back when they said if you took the drug money out then the country would collapse.
Birds of a feather here also. Vancouver’s got the most super cars per capital in North America. How can that be? What industries are such money makers in Vancouver, mining’s shutting down, even Calgary has more corporate offices with 1/2 the population.
It’s so obvious, imo all the people in the “machine” are bought and paid for or about to be, doing the bidding of the money creators, no matter the casualties. Just look at our politicians, fawning over these brutal beasts. They are just the modern day snake oil salesman, whatever party’s in power.
Just look at where BC Premier Horgan went as soon as he was sworn in…China, just like Clark….
Just wait to see what charges are laid in the biggest disaster in Canada, Mount Polley.
War and Drugs, Drugs and War,
They are the only money makers anymore.

Same as it ever was or will be.
Best job nowadays is a pencil pusher in a DEA office. Never be out of work, guaranteed! The drug war will never be won.
Just watch both Narco TV series. Spells it all out.

#75 Jo on 01.07.19 at 10:12 pm
Flop, Your posts, are so informative, keep them coming. Not many, if any understand and give an honest picture of the LM market like you do.
I amongst many others appreciate your hard work very much.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
I applaud your hard work also sir, keep it coming so we have a history of Canada going down the tubes for our children and grandchildren to learn from, if Canada ever gets out of being a narco-post-nationalist state.
As our illustrious Canadian statesman Greedo Campbell and Trudough avered when they were voted in, “You will not recognize Canada when we are done”.
The US better heed what is going on up here by our sell-out UN cuckolds or they might get beaten by a back door Asian flush.
Maybe it is all designed by the US, keep their neighbors on their knees through drugs. Worked well in Central America didn’t it.

#114 Stan Brooks on 01.08.19 at 11:16 am

#110 Stan Brooks A Lifetime of Incompetence on 01.08.19 at 10:25 am
#97 Stan “Madman: Brooks Masquerading as Toronto Hater

It would be interesting to know what causes you to hate Canada’s largest and North America’s third largest metropolis so much. Missed opportunities like huge capital gains free profits on principal residences while all you have to stare at is your rubber padded room in the insane asylum? Perhaps you are divorced and were taken to the cleaners by your ex? Perhaps you have friends in Toronto who are loaded while you scrape the bottom of the barrel? What is it Stanley? Enlighten us on your hatred for Toronto….

You are mistaken and confused.

Lying/cheer-leading about the real situation/economic conditions is not love.

On that and on GTA it is just a cold, realistic assessment of the reality.

You will not find emotions in my posts, just facts, while you on your side seem pretty emotional, I wonder why, maybe somehow subconsciously you agree with me?

Bottom line: read my posts as warning, agree with it or not, I don’t care, I have nothing to prove to anyone here and nothing to gain from.

As I said, I consider it charity work.

Whether you like my opinion or not, the future will prove me correct, so it is better to be prepared.

Cheers.

#115 Stan Brooks on 01.08.19 at 11:28 am

#109 Frank The Tank on 01.08.19 at 10:21 am

If you even for a moment believe that current house valuations in southern Ontario/Vancouver are justified by fundamentals, based on the current state of the economy, at current currency valuations/exchanges rates:

Then you some serious help from trained mental health professionals and institutions.

The whole story is so bizarre that when sober nobody would believe it 15 years from now, they will blame it on some sort of public delusion and cognitive dissonance, some form of cult, sect, religion.

#116 not 1st on 01.08.19 at 11:36 am

Alberta’s separation will be sealed next Trudeau term when he tries to put a tax on beef.

This is actually being floated around. Imagine a subsidy on dairy (Quebec), a tax on beef (Alberta). You want to see the confederation go postal just try it.

#117 Fish on 01.08.19 at 11:38 am

is this about Service-?

Bell wants permission to gather and track customer data

Canadian privacy laws mean they first have to ask
The Canadian Press · Posted: Jan 07, 2019 4:44 PM ET | Last Updated: January 7

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/bell-customer-data-1.4969066

#118 IHCTD9 on 01.08.19 at 11:50 am

#85 Long-Time Lurker on 01.08.19 at 12:26 am
#197 IHCTD9 on 01.07.19 at 11:58 am

So what’s best:

>My opinion: If you like where you are now then #2. If not then #3.
________

I love where I am right now, and I am leaning towards #2 today. I like it can be done in my own time. I like that I can skip all the bureaucracy/permits/inspections etc. I like that I can do it with cash.

I like the fact that the house is almost as old as Canada, the adze and broad-axe markings on the basement timbers shows the house was built with human sweat. 36″ thick granite and mortar foundation – still as good today as it was 148 years ago. When you dig into the walls and floors of this place, you always get a story and a recover few cool things lost decades – maybe even a century ago.

I flop back and forth depending how I feel about our future finances and the Canadian economy. If we get many more Trudeau’s – I’d best just stay where I am…

#119 Frank The Tank on 01.08.19 at 12:08 pm

#109 Frank The Tank on 01.08.19 at 10:21 am
#103 Frank The Tank on 01.08.19 at 9:09 am
#92 Frank The Tank on 01.08.19 at 6:57 am
GTA RE has been stabilizing and I believe Garth is correct in his assertions of that RE market continuing to do so in 2019.

This is good. Home prices should not be going up 20-30% YOY.

Sorry doomers, no crash coming. Never was coming.

The average detached in 416 has lost 40% of its value since the spring of 2017. Sounds kinda crashy to me. – Garth

—————————————
Uh, where are you getting the figure 40%? That is in no way accurate.

You are correct – it was a typo. The correct number is 27.4%. – Garth

———————————-

That is still inaccurate.

“Following the peak in March 2017 prices fell by 18% over the next four months, a very rapid decline for the housing market. But then something a bit unexpected happened, the downward momentum stopped. Since July 2017 house prices have remained relatively stable aside from some seasonal volatility.”

– and that is GTA, not 416.

As stated, it is correct for 416 per TREB’s published stats. Go fight with them. – Garth

————————————————————

TREB has the 416 Composite Average price in March of 2017 at $778,700. In December it’s $845,000.

I’m not Stephen Hawking, but that doesn’t seem like -27.4%.

And I’m not fighting with you, I am discussing. Big difference.

I said 416 detached. Stop wasting my time. – Garth

#120 heads up - dog food on 01.08.19 at 12:13 pm

Dog food warning
https://www.wxyz.com/news/national/dog-food-disease-dilated-cardiomyopathy

from the article:

Researchers have been gathering information about the current cases since the FDA’s investigation, which was launched last summer. Veterinarians across the country are reporting their cases to the FDA and each dog is being monitored on an individual basis.

They believe a large majority of cases are diet associated. The suspicion is that dogs who are on the BEG diet are being diagnosed with the disease at a higher rate. BEG diets include boutique, exotic and grain-free foods. Freeman said some of the dogs improved when their diets were changed.

Typically, BEG diets include ingredients like kangaroo, duck, buffalo, salmon, lamb, bison, venison, lentils, peas, fava beans, tapioca, barley or chickpeas as major ingredients. These are ingredients dog owners want to avoid if they’re listed in the first five ingredients in a dog food.

However, neither researchers nor the FDA have concluded what ingredients in these foods is causing the problem. In the article featured in the AVMA, researchers said, “although there appears to be an association between DCM and feeding BEG, vegetarian, vegan, or home-prepared diets in dogs, a cause-and-effect relationship has not been proven, and other factors may be equally or more important. “

#121 Stompie79 on 01.08.19 at 12:30 pm

Hi Garth,
It’d be really good if we could get information about the real estate market in Ottawa when you do these updates. We’re used to getting missed out in your posts but today (7th Jan) you refer to to the Winnipeg west, the GTA and then Montreal east. I realise you might have some PTSD from your previous careers here but I know you have a fan base who are interested in your insights.
I’m not from Ottawa originally so would like more info as I don’t necessarily subscribe to the local opinion that Ottawa real estate is always stable.
Thanks,

#122 LivinLarge on 01.08.19 at 12:42 pm

“Only 7 million job opening in the US.”…come on, get with the program. Don’t call it a job if you have to have at least two of them just to put a roof over your head and food on the table.

Soooo tiring reading these deliberated manipulations of labour stats (usually) Yes, yes, yes, with the tax cut and pseudo promises of a pro business West Wing, companies started hiring and creating new positions in anticipation of “happy days” being here again. Well they ain’t and the economy is tanking AGAIN.

#123 not 1st on 01.08.19 at 1:11 pm

#122 LivinLarge on 01.08.19 at 12:42 pm
“Only 7 million job opening in the US.”…come on, get with the program. Don’t call it a job if you have to have at least two of them just to put a roof over your head and food on the table.

—–

Take a read,. These are high paying high skilled jobs not mall santas and take out window like here in Canada.

The US has created more jobs in a single month than Canada does in a year and still has 7 million vacancies to go. They are going to keep doing that for years to come all because of Trump. He might be the first president to even get true full employment.

Do the 10% rule, does Canada have another 700,000 jobs to fill. Only if you work for Trudeau on the tax payers back.

Sorry to shatter your safe space.

#124 Stan Brooks, A Lifetime of Incompetence on 01.08.19 at 1:12 pm

#114 Stan Brooks

“You will not find emotions in my posts, just facts, while you on your side seem pretty emotional, I wonder why, maybe somehow subconsciously you agree with me?”

Now I know you are truly insane. Your emotionally charged invectives against “Toronturds” is not emotional? On what planet are they not? What are your diatribes but emotionally charged statements? No, Toronto is not going to be Detroitized any time soon despite your whacko prognostications. Toronto is the third largest metropolis in North America and has made many, many of its citizens rich over the years. I know immigrants who came to this city who made more money than they could have ever dreamed of. Any city that can do that for its citizens is no city worthy of your despicable put downs. The turd is you Stanley, not the citizens of Toronto. Now that is just being rational and factual Stanley…

#125 PastThePeak on 01.08.19 at 1:20 pm

#101 Howard on 01.08.19 at 8:53 am
How many of these “mobile jobs” are there actually? You seem to be speaking of something of which you know zilch.

Canada is way behind on flexible work arrangements. There are very few companies/offices in Canada that will permit full-time permanent employees to work remotely all the time. I’m speaking of proper full-time jobs with benefits and legal protections. Remote working is more common for short-term gigs, but few people want to rely on those for their entire career. The fact is that the mostly Boomer bosses prefer having the plebes around them all day. It’s a boost to their egos to boss people around in person. Doing it by phone, e-mail, or text just isn’t the same.
—————————————————————-
#104 BillyBob on 01.08.19 at 9:14 am

Exactly. Millennials seem to have a hard time grasping that success doesn’t just come and jump into your lap like a puppy. You have to actually have to make changes to achieve it. And those may even include *gasp* leaving your safe cozy home environment for a time.
——————————————————–
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Howard,

I don’t know how many mobile jobs there are (the full time you mention), but I know in my company (multi-national with large presence in Canada) there are a lot of them. Our company, and many others, have been working to reduce their real estate costs, and providing work-from-home is one way to accomplish this, especially in any city without a large workforce (we only have 2 offices in Canada). In many cities we have quite highly paid, FT workers, that have home offices. Those positions are sales, sales engineer, field engineers / technicians, product management, etc. They are not so much for s/w or h/w development, where close collaboration is still required.

The reasons for requiring a person in an office are not what you espouse – you just sound very bitter. You will find that attitude is not going to help you in life.

And to follow-up with what BillyBob says – getting those high paying jobs often requires moving. I work in Ottawa in the high tech sector, and almost everyone I know came from a different part of Canada (St. Johns, Halifax, Regina, Winnipeg, etc).

The difference from the past is that moving may no longer just be about a higher paying or more rewarding job, but about being able to find an affordable location to raise a family (perhaps the job pays a bit less, but cost of living is 50% less).

Ottawa isn’t a small city (1M pop – 1.5M when including Gatineau across the river), and there are many good employment opportunities. Housing is less than 1/2 of the GTA – can be 1/3rd in locations in our east end.

Some just can’t imagine not living in Toronto, which is fine, but times have changed and that now comes with a very high cost. If you are willing to pay it, then do so, but it is a choice.

#126 The New Normal on 01.08.19 at 1:28 pm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yrb1OztPO8w
#122 LivinLarge – In America many are selling out and living for free. Its the latest trend, and wait until you see the trailer. One can indeed go from State to State living the good life for next to nothing.

#127 Renter's Revenge! on 01.08.19 at 1:33 pm

#104 BillyBob on 01.08.19 at 9:14 am

“Millennials seem to have a hard time grasping that success doesn’t just come and jump into your lap like a puppy. ”

============================

Unless you get a puppy and name it “Success” :)

#128 Deplorable Dude on 01.08.19 at 1:43 pm

Soooo the BOSS is on TeeeeVeeee tonight. Hope he’s got his fridge stocked with diet coke, and has 2 scopes of icecream on hand.

A little birdy has told me he’s nominating Chuck Norris for Def Sec….

#129 Godth on 01.08.19 at 2:15 pm

#120 heads up – dog food
funny that they didn’t mention that taurine is found most effectively in heart muscle but instead had some wingnut suggesting the problem was a lack of grain. dogs don’t eat grain, they don’t need carbs. that’s how dog food companies make money, it’s cheap filler and results in giant, smelly, soft poop as the dogs can’t digest it.
our pooch is second generation raw fed, never had kibble or any commercial food. takes some learning but it’s relatively simple. the vet hates it, until she grilled us and admitted she wouldn’t mind eating it herself (green tripe -yuck), but the scare mongering never stopped as they assume everyone is a moron and they sell science diet. we haven’t been to the vet since his 16 week shots and none of their concerns manifested. commercial pet food is biologically inappropriate garbage but a big money maker. the whole billion dollar fur baby industry, from food to training, is a mess and kills animals. dogs are dogs, respect them as such.
Pet Fooled – Trailer
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bmHHkcrCFOY
Pottengers Cats-Diet Will Affect Future Generations
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OvQ5F6GCfgI

#130 M on 01.08.19 at 2:34 pm

Bomb went padaboom.
2000 pada boom in stocks
2008 pada boom in stocks and RE (bond related)
2019-2020 pada boom in stocks RE and bonds

..print baby print :)

and what’s best when printing ? cash and comodities with the much hated PM leading the charge

tza people are broke :)

#131 LivinLarge on 01.08.19 at 2:55 pm

The New Normal, do you sit around all day looking for the most arcane drivel? So, what if some people do some things sometimes somewhere? Just watch an episode of “The Science of Stupid”. All those videos aren’t just case of camera man in the right place at the right time. Those folks are deliberately doing really stupid stuff hoping to get shown on the show.

#132 James on 01.08.19 at 3:07 pm

#128 Deplorable Dude on 01.08.19 at 1:43 pm

Soooo the BOSS is on TeeeeVeeee tonight. Hope he’s got his fridge stocked with diet coke, and has 2 scopes of icecream on hand.

A little birdy has told me he’s nominating Chuck Norris for Def Sec….
__________________________________________
This volatility has appeared way too much in the last one year with these 1000 + point swings. Diversified or not diversified it affects all of us. Now let me think for a minute what has been the one common point that causes volatility and uncertainty in the market, ah ha its the Orange faced comb over with the mentality of a two year old and vindictiveness of a scorned lover. Its Trump!
Simple get rid of Trump and we can have some peaceful Zen and a Chai tea and make money.

#133 SoggyShorts on 01.08.19 at 3:16 pm

#101 Howard on 01.08.19 at 8:53 am
#38 SoggyShorts on 01.07.19 at 7:49 pm
#111 Boomer Bill on 01.06.19 at 9:33 pm
#106 Glengarry Girl on 01.05.19 at 8:56 pm
#105 Boomer Bill
How many of these “mobile jobs” are there actually? You seem to be speaking of something of which you know zilch.
***************************
LTR
I didn’t say “working from home” I said jobs are mobile. If you are in a desired profession you can find a job in another city. Boomers didn’t even have the internet, there are countless stories like “I arrived in Calgary with $200 and the shirt on my back…”
Mills don’t even have to take nearly that kind of risk, They can spend a few hours on the internet and do some research, and then some MATH.
Maybe moving to Ottowa and taking a 10% paycut with a 50% reduction in rent means more money in your pocket each month.
Mills making $20/h or less in TO are insane.
1. Move to AB, get a job literally anywhere for $15/h,
2. Make $8K less a year after tax, but
3. Save $12,000 a year in rent
Profit.

Mills with real skills worth real pay should be able to get even better numbers.

M38 EDM (after 3 major and 2 minor moves to improve my lot)

#134 Our PM In Action on 01.08.19 at 3:38 pm

T2 is afraid of Xi, and knew that Trump would be meeting him in the near future. Of course it was about the Canadian citizens that were retained in China. He requested that Trump might be able to help us out in this matter. What happened to our Foreign Minister, and what happened to those that recently went to China demanding the release of those held? Why can’t our PM pick up the phone and talk with Xi personally?

#135 Ray on 01.08.19 at 3:39 pm

#111 David Paquette on 01.08.19 at 10:37 am
I think the future of the Alberta oil sands is good. Although it will remain the favourite whipping boy of climate change activists things are being done to improve production practices. It takes time with the sands. Bitumen will be the go to guy for bunker fuel, diesel and kerosene.

You want goods from China, ships use bunker fuel. You want produce from California/Mexico, trains and trucks use diesel. You want to sun yourself, jets use kerosene. All these forms of transportation are terrible polluters of C02 and it not the fault of the oil sands. Those are the ones that need to clean up their act.

I don’t know if it is true but I read an article that existing ships produce more C02 than all the cars in North America and they are exempt from carbon taxes. Only time will tell – I don’t deny climate change but I see global cooling as the current climate threat. I think the greatest damage to spaceship earth has been caused by human harvesting of resources (see tragedy of the commons). The rise of activism due to the selfish greed of few disturbs me. I will be on the side of the pitchforks if push comes to shove (it).
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It gets even better. Cattle/Dairy farming is harder on the environment than the autos. Who would have thought drinking milk is killing the environment ?

https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/cow-emissions-more-damaging-to-planet-than-co2-from-cars-427843.html

#136 Dissident on 01.08.19 at 3:53 pm

Yep – I renewed our mortgage a couple years ago, just before rates started to rise – we went with variable, but I locked it in shortly after (that’s why I read this blog, hello!) Still less than what they are offering today for fixed, or for most variables. It seems too easy.

#137 Ace Goodheart on 01.08.19 at 4:19 pm

Meanwhile, in da ‘hood………..

https://www.bungol.ca/map/43.682937&-79.484539&16?

We have bidding wars. And prices in the 600k to 700k range.

Which is, if you bought here back in 2012, a 120% gain from 2012 prices. These houses were selling in the high 200’s to low 300’s back then.

It is also about 100k more than the same houses were selling for in 2017, at the peak of the Toronto Real estate market.

Remember these numbers folks. Remember this house, detached, with a laneway garage, huge backyard, three big bedrooms and two bathrooms, sold in a bidding war for $685,000.00.

Come back here next year, and houses like this will be going for $785,000 in this neighbourhood.

Come back once the new subway and UPX station opens up down the street, and they’ll be over a million.

I put this stuff up here every year, and every year people keep crowding around the “prime” neighbourhoods and “good school zones”, even though most of the prime neighbourhoods (with the exception of small parts of Bloor West and the Danforth) are transit deserts (unless you like buses and street cars), and even though your child can’t attend the “good school” in your chosen “prime neighbourhood” because it’s full, and they’ll be bused somewhere else.

For anyone who has a bit of time on their hands, and wants a really, really good deal on a detached house, and works downtown and needs something with a good commute, I suggest the following exercise for this coming weekend:

Go to the UPX station located in Weston Village (corner of Weston and Lawrence). Pay $4.85 on your PRESTO card and head downtown to Union Station .

When you pass the under construction UPX station at Mount Dennis (corner of Eglinton and Weston) set your stop watch. Time how long it takes you to get from there to Union. It will be about 9 minutes. There is one stop (Bloor Station) inbetween.

That is your commute, come 2021, from the $685,000 detached house pictured above. That is how you get downtown. Pay $4.85 on your PRESTO card, sit on a comfy express train, and 9 minutes later you are at Union Station, heart of the downtown.

Yeah, I know. I told you so. Hopefully some of you will start to listen……

#138 West Coast Woman on 01.09.19 at 10:30 am

I have a question about this advice which is to take the profits and put back into the low performers. If the commission is $9.99 and I am working in small amounts (100’s) for now, it seems prudent to leave even the profits in to keep paying dividends, and instead buy low performers with new money to continue to build my overall portfolio. Yes? Or am I missing something? F51BC