Triggered

– Julia Christe photo

Poor Ryan. My fancy portfolio manager buddy did two things on the weekend guaranteed to trigger the steerage section. (a) He was optimistic. (b) He dissed Trump.

As a result he was called a 1%er out-out-touch millionaire dork with questionable creds, a dodgy track record and a flurry of silly charts that prove diddly. ’Even a 12-year-old knows what’s coming,’ one poster cried, while others accused him of watching too much CNN, reading (and believing) lame-stream news and secretly worshiping Hillary and other global elitists who crave open borders and middle-class slavery. These folks hero-worship the Trumpster, rooting for disruption, financial market mayhem, protectionism and a giant ‘reset’.

Most people coming here (99% of them) never leave a comment. Thus, it’s hard to know if the rabble below is representative of the majority. But patterns have emerged over the past couple of years.

When stocks wobble, markets shed 2% or 3% in one session, or other financial asset classes take a temporary drubbing, the herd’s convinced everything is going to zero. Actually, they want it. An investment portfolio is portrayed as something only the privileged few in society can establish – folks who probably got rich trampling others, or collecting obscene government pensions. The same critics decry public companies buying back their own stock to increase shareholder value, thinking it’s market manipulation. And there’s a whole mob of folks angry that the Ryans of this world collect plump quarterly dividends from the banks they struggle to pay mortgages to. If Trump can tear this down and punish investors, he is seen as delivering rough justice.

So when market volatility arrives, they like it. When Trump causes that volatility – by threatening the Fed chair, firing his cabinet members, making military decisions in Tweets, shutting down the government or inflaming a trade war – they justify that. In fact, they lap it up. Trump as disruptor.

Second, the political polarization so in evidence in the comment section of late didn’t exist for the first eight years of this pathetic blog’s tortured existence. Now there’s a daily battle between the deplorables and the globalists, between Fox News and CNN, between the new ‘nationalists’ and the ‘progressives.’ The Wall has brought out more idiot comments than any other issue. One side says it’s critical to keep out the migrant hordes with Trump correct to call it a national emergency. They claim anyone opposed supports drugs, terrorists and completely open borders. The other side says in a modern world nobody builds walls between countries, most illegals come on airplanes and there’s a connection between Trump’s wall, the Muslim ban, ignoring Yemen and yanking out of Syria. He’s a racist. His pre-election rant about America being ‘invaded’ by a caravan of moms and kids proved that.

Prior to Trump being elected, I deleted (at most) four or five comments a week that were racist, anti-immigrant or prejudiced against a religion. Chinese dudes used to be the fav target, and it all had to do with house prices. Now not a day passes without dozens of deletes. The ascendancy to the most powerful position in the world by a man who thinks in tribal terms, and is unafraid to say so, has impacted humanity.

All financial markets really care about (and fancy portfolio managers who ride them) is making money. For that you need an expanding economy, profitable companies, employed consumers, tame inflation, modest rates and certainty. As Ryan pointed out on the weekend, we have all of those things, save the last. And Mr. Trump has deliberately – with the wild backing of his supporters – wiped certainty away.

There is no recession on the horizon. No global war. No reason to believe this is 2008, 1987 or 1929. But there is a disruptor in office responsible for a trade mess, political instability, rising input costs and a growing sense of unease as to how this ends. No, not the global economy or the growth in financial assets. The president. He will not survive. Trump will quit, be challenged from within his party, be impeached, defeated or convicted. The only real question is whether that will martyr the man, creating more instability, or if a failed experiment in 19th-Century economics will vanish with him.

This blog will continue until we know. Comment if you want. But be constructive.

And be sure to visit the GoFundMe page I’ve set up for Ryan. Bullet-proofing a Porsche ain’t cheap, you know. Poor guy.

237 comments ↓

#1 For those about to flop... on 01.06.19 at 4:54 pm

Recent sale report.

I see a definite cooling off in attached properties but most losses I have seen in Vancouver proper have been restricted to the over a million bracket.

This condo sale fits that profile.

The details…

902-1200 Alberni st,Vancouver.

Paid 1.05 October 2017

Sold 1.01 December 2018

Originally asking 1.13

Assessment 961k

Had maybe 5 other condo cases recently sell, but no information has come through on Zealty,so I will just have to follow up in a few months and focus on the ones that come through like this one.

So it still cleared assessment but they couldn’t quite break even.

I’m gonna grab a Sharpie and mark it down as a 100k loss.

My wife hates it when I draw on the iPad.

Me and technology don’t go together…

M44BC

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/1200-alberni-street/902

#2 For those about to flop... on 01.06.19 at 4:56 pm

Recent sale report.

Zolo would have you believe that both North Shore jurisdictions are up 15% year over year.

These guys are contorting numbers in a way that Houdini would have been proud of.

I don’t have to bother disagreeing with them as I will leave it up to these guys.

The details…

2803 Trillium Place, North Vancouver

paid 1.61 May 2017

Sold 1.52 December 2018

Originally asking 1.75

Assessment 1..51

So I guess I’ll mark it down as a 175k stab to the sternum.

They went for the Trillium and got the Trident…

M44BC

Oct 4:$1,759,000
Dec 29: $1,698,000
Change: – 61000.00 -3%

https://www.zolo.ca/north-vancouver-real-estate/2803-trillium-place

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDAyOEpQSg==

#3 HP Victoria on 01.06.19 at 5:00 pm

I agreed with Ryan’s outlook yesterday and thought it was a good post!

#4 Kurt on 01.06.19 at 5:00 pm

“There is no recession on the horizon. No global war. No reason to believe this is 2008, 1987 or 1929. But there is a disruptor in office responsible for a trade mess, political instability, rising input costs and a growing sense of unease as to how this ends. Not, not the global economy or the growth in financial assets. The president. He will not survive. Trump will quit, be challenged from within his party, be impeached, defeated or convicted. The only real question is whether that will martyr the man, creating more instability, or if a failed experiment in 19th-Century economics will vanish with him.”

Awesome.

#5 Peter Menard on 01.06.19 at 5:00 pm

“Most people coming here (99% of them) never leave a comment. ”
Today is my exception. You are absolutely right on Garth!

#6 reynolds531 on 01.06.19 at 5:01 pm

Is there not at least one chapter in the CFA textbook about how to argue with weirdos on the internet?

#7 Kelly on 01.06.19 at 5:07 pm

I do not wish to contribute to your GoFundMe page despite the chuckle benefit of your comment.

So in summary, if the rosy world around us (with no reference to the insane debt and derivative bets accompanying said world) are to be threatened, its Trump, Trump and more,Trump.

My goodness, I do not agree.

#8 Samuel on 01.06.19 at 5:20 pm

Why do people keep putting up real estate sales data in the comment section when today’s blog post had nothing to do with it? I can not be the only one who really doesn’t care what someone paid, asks and sells for again. Who cares? Real estate is falling in price. We all get that. Anyway, I like Garth’s perspective on the 1 wild card that is out there. I see it as a short term volatile factor. But more so I see it as a buying opportunity.

#9 Godth on 01.06.19 at 5:26 pm

#126 Deplorable Dude

…pointless, i know. ideologues and reality – you’ll believe what you want to believe. http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2018/12/

#10 Alberta Ed on 01.06.19 at 5:28 pm

Garth needs a SMITE key on his computer as well as DELETE.

#11 espressobob on 01.06.19 at 5:28 pm

Fear is the best emotion a retail investor can profit from. Don’t blame anyone when the markets rally.

#12 Yanniel on 01.06.19 at 5:28 pm

I have been reading the blog since 2012. The narrative used to be more RE centric. It has expanded to cover broader investment topics and politics. No wonder the comment section reflects that change in narrative.

#13 Victor V on 01.06.19 at 5:32 pm

Inspiration for Ryan:

https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/9aa206c5-e870-47b0-8e3c-765ddea408e1

#14 Jay Currie on 01.06.19 at 5:34 pm

I suspect, Garth, there would be rather more civility if you refrained from remarks like this: “The president. He will not survive. Trump will quit, be challenged from within his party, be impeached, defeated or convicted.”

There is no evidence at all that Trump wants to quit. He will certainly be challenged from within his party but, again, there is no evidence that such a challenge has a remote chance of success. He will certainly be impeached in the sense that articles of impeachment will be voted on in the House of Representatives and they might just pass – although if the Dems have any brains at all they will only pass them if there is an actual “high crime” that can be proven. But those articles are unlikely to see the floor of the Senate and if they do, they are very unlikely to attain the required 2/3 majority.

Trump might be defeated in the general if the Dems can pull themselves together enough to nominate someone who will not simply sound crazier than Trump – Senators Warren, Harris and Booker do a fine job of sounding nuttier than the Bad Orange Man. “I’m going to get me a beer.” does not make the Harvard law prof sound all that relatable either.

Conviction – for what? And is it even possible to indict a sitting President?

All of which you know, Garth. So why make the inflammatory comment? Within the context of secular macro trends far more important than the disruptive President were the US December job numbers, 300,000 plus new jobs when the consensus was around 170,000. That matters, the fact Trump gets up assorted bien pensant Canadians’ noses doesn’t. (How were Justin’s December job numbers? Oh wait, have that right here: 9.3 thousand…Atta boy!)

#15 Stealth on 01.06.19 at 5:36 pm

Nice of you to defend Ryan, shows good culture within your team.

I don’t remember you defending Doug, he may have liked it.

Then again there should be no favourites.

Ryan did a good job on his article.

Thank you

#16 Viva on 01.06.19 at 5:38 pm

DELETED

#17 Godth on 01.06.19 at 5:38 pm

trump is a disaster of a human being and tribal certainly, his tribe hangs at mar-a-lago and are obsessed with $, status and priveledge. very primitive.
get rid of trump and then what? pence? how about palin? despite the paranoia of some the left is dead and has been for quite some time. the democratic party is the moderate republican party, obama said his policies were just that in an interview after he was done. the tribe of market fundamentalists have won, $$$$$$.
reap the whirlwind.

#18 Decent Majority on 01.06.19 at 5:40 pm

Trump will be remembered as an obscene joke for a generation maybe.

#19 Juve101 on 01.06.19 at 5:43 pm

Excellent post today. The perspective provided by the blog’s comments and how they’ve changed over the years is very instructive. Trumpism has changed society, unbelievable how people can be influenced and still believe they think for themselves.

#20 For those about to flop... on 01.06.19 at 5:44 pm

Samuel,you felt it was necessary to call me out.

Fair enough.

A friend of mine once wrote…

“This blog will continue until we know. Comment if you want. But be constructive.”

I am trying to be constructive…

M44BC

#21 MicroGX on 01.06.19 at 5:44 pm

Let the blog continue!

The Steerage committee doesn’t bother me, more saddens …no daily blog insights from Garth and friends…kinda terrifying! So glad to have read this: “This blog will continue until we know.”

#22 #8 Samuel on 01.06.19 at 5:45 pm

Unlike Dems in the swamp, we are delighted to see the demise of others whom ignored the fundamentals of home affordability in pursuit of lottery winnings.

I love this calculator by TD. It’s a solid reminder that SFDs in Vancouver are going down 50% or even more. People simply cannot afford the prices.

https://tools.td.com/mortgage-affordability-calculator/

With Sydney, Hong Kong, Singapore and others turning, it’s only a matter before the sheeple run for the exits. I foresee 3 years of pain and then 10 years to forget. We will be back on track in 2030.

Watch the resources. Once the millennials hear about betting on juniors, gold bars and barrels of oil, there will be no limit. It’s been 10 years since mining hit the crapper. It’s time for another bull.

#23 Impeachment 2019 on 01.06.19 at 5:47 pm

Those are some predictions Garth, do you have any charts?

#24 Shawn Allen on 01.06.19 at 5:47 pm

Good editorial. I’ve noticed a lot more personal attacks lately including plenty of questioning of motives and honesty of people commenting.

For that reason, I am going to cut way back on commenting. It’s been fun but it feels like it is getting dangerous to post a view, especially when it is not posted anonymously.

Best wishes to Garth and all.

#25 Paterfamilias on 01.06.19 at 5:47 pm

Hello Garth,

As a member of the 99 %, not having submitted a comment before now, I too have noticed a decline in the tone of civility of contributions to your blog, in recent times. I do not know whether an increased number of deletions is representative of the majority of your readers, but such contributions as those upon which you have remarked do not represent me. Possibly the reason I have made no submissions of my own.

The only attribute in common I would wish to acknowledge with some of the authors you mention, is a mutual descent from Adam.

Thank you.

#26 Dolce Vita on 01.06.19 at 5:51 pm

Like I said yesterday, Ryan’s analysis is logical and cogent.

The American Consumer decides when there is a recession and not Mr. Market. They just spent record amounts at Christmas. Fatter profits means stock gains and dividends…a good thing for America and investments there.

On this, I agree with you Garth and Ryan.

But I can’t help but notice you have been quiet as of late about Canada, other than on RE. I see storm clouds over head, no longer on the horizon. Residential RE values are dropping (anathema to the Wealth Effect), 70% of debt underwritten by that asset class and far too much debt and Cdn. GDP devoted to it.

Our other large export, oil, is not doing well. Revenues down and more so with AB restricting some production, Gov’t tax coffers will be less fatter and that “gloom” affects people.

We have gobs of so called “job creation” (seasonally adjusted) but I read far too often few of those jobs afford their holders enough to easily pay rent in YVR or 416. That means less spending, the opposite of the US.

Many are not as eloquent at writing as you Garth, but their gut tells them something is afoot in the Cdn. economy and it is not good. Plenty of evidence for that.

Recall Garth, recessions are half economy and HALF PSYCHOLOGY. Unsinkable you today hammering away at the psychology. On America you are correct.

On Canada, NO you are incorrect.

#27 Fish on 01.06.19 at 5:53 pm

Trading in investments known as overnight index swaps suggests investors are no longer confident of even one more rate hike this year — never mind several, says Ian Pollick, head of North American rates strategy with CIBC.

“At present, there is not a single hike priced for 2019.”

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/interest-rate-hikes-1.4964689

#28 Yukon Elvis on 01.06.19 at 5:55 pm

Rosenberg: ‘80% Chance of Recession’
As a result, David Rosenberg is doubling-down on his earlier assessment that a recession looms on the horizon.

“We’ve got more than 80 percent chance of recession just based on the fact the Fed is tightening policy,” he said (see video).
https://www.ccn.com/us-economy-is-complete-facade-says-economist-who-claims-recession-is-near/

#29 not 1st on 01.06.19 at 5:55 pm

Humbly, someone please explain the high crimes and mis-demeanors that trump has committed.

Cant impeach somebody because you don’t like their policies or personality.

So lets refresh.

– Manaforts actions in Russia predate Trumps campaign.

– Negotiating an office tower in Russia while a private citizen is not illegal.

– Paying off a hooker trying to extort you is not illegal

– and if meeting with a Russian to discuss information about Hilary’s campaign is so bad, well then the Democrats are right in their with hiring people to put together a bogus dossier on trump and use FISA warrants to spy on the campaign. Add in the numerous levels of conflict of interest. Plenty of guilt for both sides.

No, trump will not be impeached, convicted, quit or challenged. He will stand in 2020 and likely win.

In fact I predict the opposite. A democratic revolt splinters the house.

#30 will on 01.06.19 at 5:56 pm

#10

“Garth needs a SMITE key on his computer as well as DELETE.”

lolololololol!

#31 Lefty on 01.06.19 at 5:57 pm

Great post Garth. The polarization in politics today is insane… We’re at the point where you can’t dislike Trump AND be in favour of border security.

#32 Doug t on 01.06.19 at 5:58 pm

All the world’s a stage,/ And all the men and women merely players – some play at being elite 1% and the rest just play at surviving the sh*t show that the elite have created

RATM

#33 BobC on 01.06.19 at 5:58 pm

I was for the trade (war) deal wholeheartedly when I came across this video of a libertarian which changed my mind. He’s a congressman explaining how congress really works. So instead of disappearing behind my iPad I’ll admit, once again your right.
My country is so corrupt I don’t know how we’ve lasted so long. Trump is nothing more then a speed bump that is slowing the rush to socialistic hell. He’ll be gone soon.

https://reason.com/blog/2018/07/25/rep-massie-fighting-cronyism-washington

#34 Igor on 01.06.19 at 6:03 pm

Yesterday post was so great that I sent it to a couple of my friends! Keep up the good work Mr. Ryan!

#35 prairie person on 01.06.19 at 6:05 pm

Garth, There are numerous articles about how Go Fund me pages are raising millions of dollars so that desperate people can hire the services of charlatans who offer cancer cures which have no proven benefit. One “doctor” in California is selling sound as a way to defeat disease. With this sort of logic, or lack of it, why would sensible, sane advice on investing get any more respect than medical practioners? The standard estimate of mentally ill in the population is ten percent. What the internet has done is given all people, sane, insane, wise, stupid, the whole gamut, a voice. What used to be dumb grumpiness and prejudice in the coffee shop on Saturday morning is greatly expanded. Everyone has been given a bullhorn. Thank goodness you edit.

#36 islander on 01.06.19 at 6:06 pm

Love that Puli dog – a flying mop! Who can resist smiling?
Thanks for hanging in there Garth and belated Happy New Year to all.

#37 Smoking Man on 01.06.19 at 6:12 pm

Trump knows his base. His actions and statements are designed for them. He read herd well, played into their fears. He’s made the rich richer and made the poor richer. Its got to be tough for a captilist like Ryan. He works in hell hole progressive mecha of the world. I bet when no one is watching he takes selfies wearing his MAGA hat.

I remember working on a trade floor when the culture shift started to take hold. It was sickening to watch tough men being demasculated in real time by weirdo bosses. I for one hated it and moved to the land lambos and mazaratiis. The culture in Orange County is still dominated by normmes.

As far as the markets go.
It’s Democrats that scare the market. From Trumps 1st day on the job the markets took off. Then caved when the Demoncrats took the House. Any down turn means dems are winning. Any upturn means Trump is winning.

So anticipating what happens next in Washington gives you a leg up in the financial markets.

#38 TRUMP 2020 on 01.06.19 at 6:14 pm

4 MORE YEARS!!

The people voted for someone who puts America first.

Not a regime that flys around the world spending trillions of dollars to blow-up innocent women and children for the benefit of a few rich elite.

Dick Cheney’s Haliburton is rebuilding IRAQ’s oil infrastructure. GUESS WHO DESTROYED IT?

And still no weapons of mass destruction to be found.

Kennedy ended the VIETNAM WAR…..then someone put a bullet in his head.

No more war……..TRUMP 2020!!!!

#39 LMC on 01.06.19 at 6:18 pm

I have been reading this blog, Ryan and Garth’s posts, never the comments, for many years. I am very thankful and appreciative for this blog, Ryan and Garth’s time and experience, their thick skin and of course the photos!

#40 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.06.19 at 6:20 pm

@#8 Samuel
“I can not be the only one who really doesn’t care what someone paid, asks and sells for again. ”
+++++
Sammy,Sammy ,Sammy

You do realize the blog is called ‘Greaterfool” yes?
And people that purchased in the last 1-2 years and are now selling are probably , for the most part, panicing, opportunistic flippers yes?
And Garth has mentioned that using real estate as an “all or nothing investment” is fools play yes?

I ,for one, rather enjoy seeing the verifiable numbers that Flop posts in the comment section showing sale… after sale… after sale… that is quantifiable proof… there are “greaterfools” out there.

How could you possibly find fault with true, quantifiable, verifiable, easy to read and understand, Real Estate sales numbers….unless you’re a Realtor…?

#41 Dolce Vita on 01.06.19 at 6:20 pm

Like I said yesterday, Ryan’s analysis is logical and cogent.

The American Consumer decides when there is a recession and not Mr. Market. They just spent record amounts at Christmas. Fatter profits means stock gains and dividends…a good thing for America and investments there.

On this, I agree with you Garth and Ryan.

But I can’t help but notice you have been quiet as of late about Canada, other than on RE. I see storm clouds over head, no longer on the horizon. Residential RE values are dropping (anathema to the Wealth Effect), 70% of debt underwritten by that asset class and far too much debt and Cdn. GDP devoted to it.

Our other large export, oil, is not doing well. Revenues down and more so with AB restricting some production, Gov’t tax coffers will be less fatter and that “gloom” affects people.

We have gobs of so called “job creation” (seasonally adjusted) but I read far too often few of those jobs afford their holders enough to easily pay rent in YVR or 416. That means less spending, the opposite of the US.

Many are not as eloquent at writing as you Garth, but their gut tells them something is afoot in the Cdn. economy and it is not good. Plenty of evidence for that.

Recall Garth, recessions are half economy and HALF PSYCHOLOGY. Unsinkable you today hammering away at the psychology. On America you are correct.

On Canada, NO you are incorrect.

Let’s be honest people, Trump’s a nutter on what he says far too many times.

But I also look at what he does.

He’s goosing the American economy, cutting taxes and inflation fueling it, natters about the Fed interfering with that, but by in large the US economy is doing very well under his stewardship so far. No recession for at least a couple of years there. Even Ray Dalio thinks so.

Having said all that and back to the nutter part, I believe people are fed up with the Progressive Left telling them what they can and cannot say, how to behave and in general they are control freaks – WHO DIED AND LEFT THEM IN CHARGE?

So Garth, when a nutter like Trump comes along and thumbs his nose at the Progressives he becomes a lightening rod for people to rally behind.

I think that is wrong.

Rather, have the personal and singular courage to stand up to the self anointed Progressive Left and tell them you disagree instead of encouraging people like Trump.

I do it whenever I can – Twitter my favorite venue for this. The Progressives don’t like it but facts seems to have the desired effect over fancy.

Hence, stop defending Trump when he says outrageous things but assail the Progressives instead. They are the one’s that wish to impose their brand of moral superiority over the rest of us and we, the Exhausted Majority, are fed up with it.

According to the research conducted for “Hidden Tribes” about the Progressive Left it is NOT SO MUCH GENUINE CONCERN FOR SOCIAL JUSTICE as the PREENING DISPLAY OF CULTURAL SUPERIORITY. Trudeau a poster child for this sort of thing.

I support you Garth on Trump and the equal nutters he has emboldened to speak out but careful there is that FINE LINE between OBJECTIVISIM laid bare and PREENING.

Again, to the above:

Americans Strongly Dislike PC Culture

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2018/10/large-majorities-dislike-political-correctness/572581/

—————————————

And yes Garth, they pick on you here because you have created a pluralistic and tolerant Blog and Commons. Good you bitch about decorum once and awhile…again, a fine line Garth…

#42 Load Up Larry on 01.06.19 at 6:21 pm

Garth, Is now the time to load up on Alberta Oil companies ahead of the Provincial Election? May the “Kenny Bump” send these companies back to historic multiples? I’d like to this so and with Ryan being fairly optimistic, I think this New Year’s Gift may be available for those wanting to invest.

#43 Flop flop and flop again on 01.06.19 at 6:24 pm

Please stop.

#44 abc123 on 01.06.19 at 6:25 pm

Trump 2020!

He and Putin are the only two leaders in history that work not only for their pockets but also for the people!

#45 TRUMP 2020 on 01.06.19 at 6:26 pm

Was trump not voted in as our president? He will be back in 2020. Garth is wrong

#46 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.06.19 at 6:30 pm

@#35 Smoking Man
” I for one hated it and moved to the land lambos and mazaratiis.”
+++++

You moved to Burnaby!?!?!?

Speaking of Burnaby.
Did any else notice NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh posing at Kingsway and Royal Oak today around 12:30.
Its understandable if you missed him.
He was kind of hard to see surrounded by the orange sign waving mob of …. maybe 30 people tops.
Burnaby South’s savior looked a tad embarrassed with it all.

#47 young & foolish on 01.06.19 at 6:31 pm

Looking around the world one can see plenty of examples (Trumpian leaders and sentiment resulting in movements such as Brexit) which seem to reflect a fear and uncertainty about the global order and the seeming inequality it enables. The resulting retrenchment in nationalism and socialism must be shared with leadership which has failed to convince populations of the real benefits of free trade and open borders.

When the future seems scary and you begin to feel that leaders have left you behind and no longer represent your interests, your tribe starts to look more and more secure and welcoming. False comfort perhaps, but comfort nevertheless.

The word “globalist” has taken on a negative bent, and internationalism (cosmopolitanism) has been blamed for all the wrongs around the world. We need a new narrative and we need it sooner than later.

#48 Fish on 01.06.19 at 6:33 pm

Trump again hints at national emergency to bypass Congress for wall funding
Facebook
Twitter

U.S. president expects little headway in 2nd day of talks, seeking new designs for steel barrier
The Associated Press · Posted: Jan 06, 2019 12:42 PM ET | Last Updated: an hour ago

Sanders said Trump is “not going to stop” until he figures out the best way to protect U.S. citizens and that “whatever action he takes will certainly be lawful.”

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/trump-partial-government-partial-shutdown-wall-funding-talks-steel-fence-not-concrete-1.4967771

#49 millmech on 01.06.19 at 6:41 pm

Still good prices on Canadian dividend paying companies, nothing like 6%+ payout just for holding and capital appreciation to boot.
If the valuations go lower it would be very difficult not to use the line of credit, with the added bonus of writing off the interest payments to grow the pile.
Leverage can be a good thing for certain asset classes and controlled/manageable amounts.

#50 crossbordershopper on 01.06.19 at 6:45 pm

DELETED

#51 acdel on 01.06.19 at 6:47 pm

Smoking Man #25 and the points that #14 Dolce Vita made are right on.

I could care less about the status quos, or the so called intellects on this blog that post most of the egotistical, hypocritical negative comments.

I respect the hard working people out there that are experiencing and know exactly what is going on out there.

Ryan did write a respectable article yesterday. Did not comment for the fact that I take in who’s working on the front line first; then compare what they have to say with what the experts and there charts have to say.

Guess where I stand??

C’est la vie!

#52 yvrmc on 01.06.19 at 6:49 pm

#8 Samuel … Flop has been posting valuable info since I started reading this pathetic blog 3 years ago… Feel free to scroll past when ever you see his name. I look forward to seeing what else he has observed happening in the RE market….. I guess that answers your question buddro …

#53 Penny Henny on 01.06.19 at 6:49 pm

Today’s pic

Bob Marley’s dog, Rasta

#54 Penny Henny on 01.06.19 at 6:54 pm

Most people coming here (99% of them) never leave a comment. -GT

Hey Stan ‘The Kook’ Brooks

you are a .1% er.

#55 You know on 01.06.19 at 7:02 pm

“Garth, No global war? China has a hard on for Taiwan” opps…can I say that? See Xi’s comments today.

#56 acdel on 01.06.19 at 7:03 pm

For once I have to agree with Felix, I love dogs, my apologies to the owner, but wow, that is one ugly dog!

Give that poor thing a haircut and a steak!

#57 PPforP on 01.06.19 at 7:05 pm

In all honesty, Ryan is my favourite writer on this blog. I really appreciate his analysis.

#58 Jason on 01.06.19 at 7:06 pm

First time commenter, long time reader. Thank you Garth, Ryan and Flop provide us information which help us understand the market.

#59 Deplorable Dude on 01.06.19 at 7:07 pm

Garth and others seem to be in willful ignorance of what the US has to deal with on it’s southern border.

Here’s some ‘constructive’ facts….

60,000 illegals attempt to cross PER MONTH.

20,000 Children smuggled in last month alone.

30% of women/girls smuggled in by ‘coyotes’ are raped.

In 2018, 17000 illegals arrested at the border with existing criminal records.

2017/18 ICE arrested 235,000 illegals within the US with criminal charges/convictions; 100,000 for assault, 30,000. for sex crimes, and 4,000 for homicides.

300 Americans die per week from Heroin overdose, most of which comes across that border.

FAIR-Federation for American Immigration reform estimate illegals in the US cost the US taxpayer about $118 BILLION Annually, in free healthcare, education and benefits.

Just yesterday Corporal Ronil Singh was buried. A cop killed at Christmas by an Illegal alien. He leaves behind a wife and 2 children.

Walls work….ask Israel and Hungary.

#60 Penny Henny on 01.06.19 at 7:10 pm

Sorry to bother Mr. Garth.

I have a question that went unanswered by Mr. Lewenza.

Have any of your ‘Golden Boys’ (with all due respect) ever forecasted a down year in the US or Canadian market going forward?

If so it would be interesting to know why? If they were correct in their forecast? And what they learn from that experience.

Thank you.
\
I have to send you a pic of my , now past, dog Penny.
She would warm your cold Bay street heart (joke intended).
I’ve learned tons. But that doesn’t mean I agree with all you say.

Ace is still a tool.

#61 Flop flop and flop again on 01.06.19 at 7:12 pm

DELETED

#62 Remember Ronald Reagan Firing All The Traffic Controllers ? on 01.06.19 at 7:12 pm

Let’s Party!

Go Trump Go!

https://www.politico.com/story/2008/08/reagan-fires-11-000-striking-air-traffic-controllers-aug-5-1981-012292

#63 Austruck on 01.06.19 at 7:13 pm

Awww. Ryan sounds bitter. No bonus this year for the Investment folks??!! My heart bleeds…

#64 Re penny henny on 01.06.19 at 7:14 pm

Stop babbling you hippie, the sixties are over and no, you’re not going to Woodstock again.

#65 Barb on 01.06.19 at 7:18 pm

“The president. He will not survive. Trump will quit, be challenged from within his party, be impeached, defeated or convicted. ”

—————————————
Yes please, any of the above.
And quickly.

#66 Tim on 01.06.19 at 7:21 pm

I’ve always appreciated the emphasis of the goals of Canada’s government as expressed in the Constitution Act (1867) : “peace, order and good government.”

This is the kind of government that seeks the welfare of the greatest number of people rather than prioritizing individual authonomy over all else.

It’s a competent government, with ordered processes, fair rules, and transparent and well-structured decision-making. Deep subject-matter experts (fishery biologists, economists, urban planners, climatologists and so on) are consulted in policy-making. Governments don’t make big changes quickly but work incrementially, studying outcomes and runing trials to seek better outcomes. The committee process in the House of Commons and input from the Senate acts to incrementally improve legislation as it is developed and the party in power is receptive to (at least) some of these ideas. One even hopes for a presumption of competence and good-will even for policies implemented by a previous political party in power. Best practices around the world are studied and applied. Decisions are primarily evidence-based, not primarily ideological. This is the same way good governance in a corporation works.

We don’t need strong leaders per se as much as we need strong government structures and a strong civil society.

Canada is very fortunate to have a history of good, competent governance, which is recognized around the world. For example, the 2018 Legatum Prosperity Index ranked Canada 8th best out of 149 countries in good governance. This quality in our country is something really to be valued and preserved.

#67 The ryguy on 01.06.19 at 7:24 pm

If the markets don’t like the government shutdown then investors should buckle up. Trump won’t move on this one. Find the wall or shut it down. Trump knows With a wall he is re-elected in a landslide..without he’s one and done.

Glad you brought up Corporal Singh D-dude. Ideological liberals love to ignore real world consequences of their foolish open borders. This is why there is no civilized discourse.. you point out a husband and father won’t go home to his family and then you get called a racist; Cognitive dissonance on full display.

#68 not 1st on 01.06.19 at 7:25 pm

No offense to Ryans article, but we already have our own PM blowing smoke up you know where. The risks are every where in 2019. France and Britain. China, US but especially Canada which in 10 short months will basically vote to become Venezuela 2.0 or not. And none of this has anything to do with Trump.

You cant keep up the false narrative that Canada is a place for mom and pop to invest while corporations are evacuating capital out of our borders like there is no tomorrow.

#69 Trump Unmasked on 01.06.19 at 7:27 pm

#37 Smoking Man – Oh, Trump indeed knows his base and like a conman played them like a fiddle. He is the Music Man in disguise, having the fools believe in his promises giving them what they wanted to hear. It was a staged performance to acquire votes. Then he turns around with his actions that contradicted his words, by throwing his hat with the globalist agenda to attack and destroy nations.

#70 Daily Reader on 01.06.19 at 7:28 pm

I don’t consider myself a 1%er but I do rely on my investments to provide me with a standard of living that is significantly better than that which OAS and CPP would provide. I don’t always agree with Garth or Ryan. For instance, I would much rather receive a special dividend than see a fractional share price increase (maybe!) from a share buyback. And at my age, I look for dividend-growing “blue-chip” stocks almost 100%. Bonds are a waste of space in my portfolio, and the volatility against which they are supposed to protect is not a risk in my opinion.

But unlike some of the posters on this site, I appreciate a variety of points of view, and I don’t hold monomaniacal views on a US president who after all will probably be gone in another couple of years. Nor do I subscribe to any conspiracy theories on either end of the spectrum.

Read these columns with appreciation, folks, and don’t castigate Garth or Ryan for their sincere opinions. I collect many points of view and synthesize my own investment outlook. Isn’t that the mature investment approach?

#71 acdel on 01.06.19 at 7:31 pm

Last post for tonight, besides Garth, this is my second favorite commentator out there in Canada. Your choice Garth if you wish to post this or not, it is your blog, respected by me.

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/rex-murphy-how-the-liberal-carbon-tax-is-not-unlike-a-2000-cat-door

#72 Linda on 01.06.19 at 7:33 pm

I can agree with Garth that the people who want markets, RE & so forth to drop are quite possibly devoid of any of those asset classes, so they’ve no skin in the game. Except they are mistaken about having nothing to lose. As anyone can tell you, a slowing economy doesn’t necessarily translate into a less expensive cost of living. Trade barriers increase pricing & potentially can take a previously profitable enterprise & make it too costly to run. Jobs could be affected, including the jobs of those who back POTUS actions – as quite a few US government workers have discovered, regardless of whether they voted for the man or not. People who are not receiving income to pay their bills affect the service providers ability to pay their bills & so on.

What’s that you say? You are broke, homeless, have nothing to lose? Guess what happens to charitable donations as an economy contracts? Throw in the increase in those seeking help & the end result is that while people may still get help, it will be doled out in smaller pieces. No matter what, the actions that disrupt the economy are generally not positive for anyone.

I will add that Trump has enabled the ugly underbelly of human emotions to shine forth. His leadership has led those who have always felt those emotions to express them freely, to the detriment of society. Thank you Garth for your continued work to ensure your blog is not used as a platform by the nasty minded. It is truly appreciated.

#73 Figure it Out on 01.06.19 at 7:33 pm

“There is no recession on the horizon.”

I don’t bother trying to predict recessions, because nobody is any damn good at it, and I don’t think I’m any more skilled.

But if I were trying to predict recessions, I’d note that US light vehicle sales are down year over year, as are US new home sales, used home sales, and median new home prices. Median used home prices, while again positive after being negative earlier this year, are running below inflation. Oh, and light vehicle sales are down YoY in CHINA! As are real estate sales. All told, that’s a pretty big slice of today’s cyclical economy.

Remember “synchronized global growth”? That was a good few months we had there.

#74 april on 01.06.19 at 7:33 pm

#20 -Flop take no notice of these people who want you to stop reporting on RE facts… if they don’t like it they can scroll past.

#75 Pete on 01.06.19 at 7:35 pm

I’m usually of the 99% of readers who don’t comment.

Everything on this blog is well-researched, respectful, and presented of PASSION… seemingly not of monetary gain. No paywalls, no ads, no gaudy plugs for seminars, PDF handbooks, or pyramid schemes. No false promises. Just steady-handed advice and pooch pics. Free to the 1% AND the 99%.

When you’re wetting your pants over the threat of a housing crash it’s natural to see those telling people to stay the course as the enemy. “Keep calm and carry on” isn’t as sexy as “fill up your bunker with preserves, gold bars and aluminum foil hats!”

Kudos to Ryan and Garth for their awesome work. Keep fighting the good fight!

#76 unbalanced on 01.06.19 at 7:36 pm

Trump is challenged!!! Mentally—that is

#77 mark on 01.06.19 at 7:36 pm

People will be much happier when they understand they don’t really need an opinion about the future.

It will happen. Then you’ll find out.

#78 Warren Buffett on 01.06.19 at 7:38 pm

“Forecasts may tell you a great deal about the forecaster; they tell you nothing about the future.”

Warren Buffett

#79 Fiendish Thingy on 01.06.19 at 7:40 pm

#29 Not 1st-
Impeachment is a political, not criminal trial, so no statutory violations are required, only political will (typically for presidents, actual crimes are included in articles of impeachment, but the Constitution doesn’t require it).

“High Crimes” is on old English law term referring to acts that demean the office, not violations of statutory law.

Just as judges have been impeached for public drunkeness, Trump could technically be impeached for embarrassing the nation, but I think the Democrats will either 1) wait for Meuller’s final report, or 2) if Meuller’s reports is quashed by the AG (whoever that may be at the time), then the Dems will gather evidence through hearings and congressional investigations.

Either way, as the evidence is made public, and dominates the news cycles, most of America will turn against him, including many of the Republicans in the Senate. Will it be enough to convict and remove? Who knows at this point, but if his kids end up in jail, and his assets are at risk of seizure, he might just try to “make a deal”.

#80 Freddie Franclin on 01.06.19 at 7:41 pm

Must be quite the place, D.C. Can only imagine what it is like there. I’m praying for good politics in 2019 there and North of the Border to help bring good and healthy business back into position at the top of focus for North American Voters!!

#81 Stephen on 01.06.19 at 7:42 pm

I don’t understand why you even permit comments. In my opinion, they no longer provide any value to anyone, and must chew up a lot of your time. Just post your daily column, and then enjoy your evening. No one should have to take the verbal beating that you endure every day.

#82 BailinginBC on 01.06.19 at 7:50 pm

Thanks for your contribution Flop – don’t worry about the haters

#83 expat on 01.06.19 at 7:55 pm

So when Leftists (really Communists but they changed their name to appear palatible), call all of us evil for working hard and making money that is OK?

They literally dream up ways to make the world a horrible place..

Instead of simply telling those less fortunate to get a job they create a wlefare state so dysfunctional the government has to commit more to overlay on the mess they made withour fixing anything.

Thye have entire teams who thrust new problems into the mix to keep us all off kilter. They stay in the headlines with the latest downtrodden sob story.

Trump won becuase 50% of the US population told the elites, the people who are trying to take away our sovereignty, all of the other malcontents hellbent on the destruction of our society to go to hell.

That is bad.

It’s called sticking up for your way of life. Trump was a blint instrument to use to shake it up. He has done that in spades.

Conservatives have been quiet too long and let the rabble take over our coutnries.

We are simply righting the ship

Trump is a symbol of the problems of our society.
He isn’t the problem.

We are.

For letting Leftist groups take away our freedom of thought, speech, and religion.

I apologize for nothing. The message was sent.
We ain’t taking it anymore.
Hard work, tough decisions, low taxes, sovereignty and strong borders, etc

We are nation – not an place to get cheques and handouts.

If you call that racist then I guess society is finished.

#84 canuck on 01.06.19 at 7:56 pm

” He will not survive. Trump will quit, be challenged from within his party, be impeached, defeated or convicted. The only real question is whether that will martyr the man, creating more instability, or if a failed experiment in 19th-Century economics will vanish with him.”

Well, we certainly know Garth is triggered… He is the result of a divided America, not the reason. I’m surprised you haven’t realized that.

#85 expat on 01.06.19 at 7:57 pm

Trump has a higher rating than Trudeau
Whoa news flash!
Just saying

Don’t any of you Liberals go postal or nothing….

#86 NoName on 01.06.19 at 8:04 pm

Not, not the global economy or the growth in financial assets. -GT

Lets not use double negative, it takes a while for me to figure them out.

Few days maybe weeks i am “fixing” something, and got hanged up on double negative in logic…
Dude comes over to help me out, and aks whats wrong, and i tell him its not, not ready, i am looking at, look its right here on a screen. Sec later he tell me let her rip, it wont crash, accent was mentioned…
Its not easy to be me.

So here is song for; not, not deplorables, and not, not globalists. PRESS PLAY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9GMUEFBWOMU

#87 BC_Doc on 01.06.19 at 8:07 pm

Hi Garth,
I’m an American born Canadian (proud immigrant to Canada).
In my lifetime (I’m in my early 50s), I’ve witnessed the advancement of civil rights for African-Americans and watched in pride as a black man was elected president. I’ve watched as lesbians, gays, and trans folks have gained greater inclusion in our society and gained the right to same sex marriage. I am hopeful that Trumpism is an aberration which will be washed away by America’s changing demographics. Here are to the better angels of our nature to which Abraham Lincoln alluded.

#88 expat on 01.06.19 at 8:12 pm

A reminder to all.

So you all understand the Dems tried to build a wall as well to keep the illegals out.

Not talked about anywhere becuase it doesn’t fit your narrative. Most folks don’t know this.

Having a differing opinion is not evil.

One joker here said Garth needs a delete and a smite button.

Why?
Because people have a different viewpoint? You leanr from other opinions that differ from yours.

If your argument stands up great.
If it doesn’t you won’t die

Grow up

It’s called democracy
Remember that

#89 Ryan on 01.06.19 at 8:14 pm

Feel free to live in Russia, expat. DIAF.

#90 Yuus bin Haad on 01.06.19 at 8:21 pm

Does Kim Campbell ever comment here?

#91 Ustabe on 01.06.19 at 8:29 pm

Time for another lifestyle blog dog poll so all these political intellects can tell you and us how rich they are?

or:

“Garth needs a SMITE key on his computer as well as DELETE.”

or:

Let them be free, expose themselves for what they really are.

or:

Redirect them to disney.com

or:

install a up vote/down vote button on each post, let the 99% participate. I think you might be surprised at which posts filter to the top and which get blasted to oblivion.

to all of you feeling or actually getting attacked know this; it is because even the most ardent Trumpista smells it in the air and out of ill-informed desperation they act in their true nature knowing the end is neigh.

Think of it this way…where have all the Bitcoin proponents on this blog gone? Same thing will happen to all the mushroom eaters soon.

#92 @careeraftschool on 01.06.19 at 8:31 pm

To all the Garth, Ryan, Trump, Justin, Rachel, John and Doug haters:

“A truly strong person does not need the approval of others any more than a lion needs the approval of sheep.”- Vernon Howard

#93 NoName on 01.06.19 at 8:32 pm

#79 Fiendish Thingy on 01.06.19 at 7:40 pm

“Either way, as the evidence is made public, and dominates the news cycles, most of America will turn against him,”

No it wont, Rayan is 100% correct, it is best to be left to the voters, anything else just reinforces views and people get more entrenched in their belivs. Its called back fire efect, why facts more often than not, dont help you to “win” debates.

#94 MaxBerniersShorts on 01.06.19 at 8:34 pm

#14 Jay Currie et al
As Canadians why do you even care, let alone so passionately? And if you’re not Canadian why are you even here on a Canada-focused blog?

Maybe Garth should just block US IP addresses.

#95 Nice Try on 01.06.19 at 8:35 pm

#83 expat – “For letting leftist groups take away our freedom of thought, speech, and religion.” Actually this is the Globalist’s Agenda of bringing forth a new order in the world. The deception is awesome by definition and the leftists need to be watched by what they are really doing.

#96 KLNR on 01.06.19 at 8:41 pm

Nicely put Garth.
You know the apologists who endlessly post about how great trump is aren’t intelligent enough to take the hint though. Most likely going to double down on all their logical fallacies. Good for you for calling them out on it.

#97 GOLDEN GLOBES 2019 on 01.06.19 at 8:45 pm

DELETED

#98 KLNR on 01.06.19 at 8:46 pm

@#87 expat on 01.06.19 at 8:12 pm
_____________________________

LOL, Classic case of being triggered.

All expat can come up with is but, but, but Trudeau…
and other conspiracy theory nonsense.

#99 Jacky Dangerous on 01.06.19 at 8:47 pm

Wow, feminists standing up for those who stone women, liberals standing against Trump while Swedish rape stats skyrocket, kids getting murdered in Canada and no legal recourse or outrage as our PM labels “travellers” mentally I’ll”. Billion dollar money laundering case dropped for fear of exposing an ethnic schism

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/british-columbia/article-bc-operation-laundered-massive-amounts-of-cash-court-documents-say/

And it’s all Trump’s fault? Because he’s creating jobs for his people, talking about border security, juicing the economy, showing people what an incompetent goon Obama was/is?

You apologists need to give your head a shake. Hysteria is a treatable mental disorder.

#100 Nobel Laureate on 01.06.19 at 8:48 pm

“Most people coming here (99% of them) never leave a comment. Thus, it’s hard to know if the rabble below is representative of the majority.”

Ratings agencies think they can predict elections by polling 2000 people.

Also, bots. Maybe only 1% actually comes here.

#101 Nonplused on 01.06.19 at 8:58 pm

Have you all seen the video of AOC dancing when she was younger?

https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/04/politics/ocasio-cortez-dancing-video-trnd/index.html

It was supposed to be news. If that’s the news for today, the world can sleep soundly tonight.

I personally think it made me like her more. She went from “dumb” to “cute but dumb” (CBD).

Scott Adams (yes Dilbert) asked the question today. If this is all the news we have, maybe Trump isn’t making things worse. News is usually bad. When does CNN ever play “good” news. All they have is a collage kid dancing? That’s good news.

And anyway back to my own opinion she dances better than I do, even if I can’t fathom how she got elected.

#102 Long-Time Lurker on 01.06.19 at 9:07 pm

#71 acdel on 01.06.19 at 7:31 pm
Last post for tonight, besides Garth, this is my second favorite commentator out there in Canada. Your choice Garth if you wish to post this or not, it is your blog, respected by me.

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/rex-murphy-how-the-liberal-carbon-tax-is-not-unlike-a-2000-cat-door

>Some funny insults here. I was just watching some British Parliamentary debates. It can be really funny at times. British and Commonwealth (Canadian) Parliamentary debates really show what individuals and their arguments are made of. Also really funny is Nigel Farage’s lambasting of EU cronies.

…The ever-crusading Catherine McKenna, Minister of Earth, Wind and Sky, announces boldly that in 2019 “it will no longer be free to pollute,” and, “making polluters pay is part of any carbon plan.” What is she talking about?

…And after Mr. Trudeau’s eerie minstrel tour of India, is it likely that venerable country is searching Canadian headlines for leading examples?

…We are not a world beacon. Our practical impact on global climate, however it is assessed, is trivial. Our measurable contribution is negligible, our exemplary force a delusion…

…If the government really believes its own rhetoric on global warming, there’s the real cost, and anything less is a sham. Which may be defined as the glossy embrace of a virtue you are exceptionally unwilling to practice.

#103 AB Boxster on 01.06.19 at 9:07 pm

It was not that long ago that when I explained American politics vs Canadian politics to my kids I explained that in the USA the US Democrats and the Canadian Conservatives were about equivalent on the political spectrum with the American Republicans being to the right of both and the Canadian Liberals slightly to the left of Conservative and NDP to the far left.

Today the US Democratic party is almost as far left as the NDP in Canada, and the Liberals in Canada more left than the NDP.

Go back 10+ years and it is easy to see that the Democrats in the US supported many policies that the Republicans support today.

They supported immigration controls, small business, and were ardent capitalist. Many were anti gay marriage , pro America and free traders and pro working class people. The were pro America and were strong nationalists and proud of their country and

Today the Demacratic party in the US has become a socialist mess taken that way by Bernie Sanders and the progressive left.
They are all about identity politics, are anti rich, and many are open borders supporters , illegal immigration proponents. They seem not to care that illegal immigration drives down wages for domestic workers, preferring to virtue signal about their goodness at saving the downtrodden of the world despite its impact on domestic economy. They are far more likely to denigrate America for its rampant racist history, and are willing to deride their country as a white patriarchal hotbed of racism rather than as a beacon for democracy and freedom in a world full of mostly shithole countries.

While the American public is still middle of the road, the Democratic party in the US has taken a massive left turn.

Today. They are so dogmatic and anti-trump that they will vote against anything that Trump proposes even if it makes actual sense.

The battle between Republican and Democratic is no longer a political battle , it is a culture battle.

It is a war between mainstream Republican traditional American values, and the new progressive values of the new Marxist left.

God help us if the Democrats ever get power with some of their Marxist ideologies. Wars have been foubht in the Usa in the past, and I suspect that Americans will not willingly move as far left as the current Democratic progressive Marxists want to move it?
.
Culture wars may not end up pretty.

#104 Smartalox on 01.06.19 at 9:11 pm

Keep those posts coming, Flop! Your fans appreciate your efforts!

#105 Island Girl on 01.06.19 at 9:16 pm

Hubby and I frequently discuss the political state of the USA and shake our heads in amazement at the utter craziness of it all. Hopefully soon we will revert back to levelheadedness and reason, but when you start to hear rumors of other celebrities thinking of running for office you begin to question those that vote them into power. How can so many people be so blind.
As for a wall, all it will do is disrupt the natural migration and spreading of nature, and animals further damaging the ecosystem, but that doesn’t seem to be that important to most.
As for Ryan, you’re always putting out good information, so keep it up!

#106 1st timer on 01.06.19 at 9:17 pm

Spend 2 reading each article and 10 minutes plus on comments. The comments are the blog. Thanks Garth for the inspiration and the moderation.

#107 Mrs. Fool on 01.06.19 at 9:19 pm

I don’t think the comments in the steerage section represent the majority who come here. It just happens that haters or envious people make more noise.
The current political environment has encouraged xenophobics to come out and express their feelings. Trump was elected because he capitalized this sentiment and sadly I don’t think he is going away any time soon. Some people in the US forget they have benefited from immigrants immensely, particularly in California where they have worked in agriculture, but now they are blamed for all the economic misfortunes of the average american.
Politics and religion will always cause visceral reactions in many people, that’s why they are topics better left off the dinner table.

#108 prairie person on 01.06.19 at 9:19 pm

Flop, I’m a fan. I look forward to your posts. I live in this crazy RE world in Victoria. Keep up the good work.

#109 Salutations Sally on 01.06.19 at 9:29 pm

I enjoy reading all of the posts made by the writers of this blog, and all comments supplied by the Steerage Section, provided they are respectful. You can disagree and still be polite… or so I thought. I also thought that was a trait that proudly identified us as Canadians.

#110 millmech on 01.06.19 at 9:30 pm

All the people ranting and raving about Trump, if they are Canadian they have no control(vote) over the situation, it is not our issue.
It seems to be an utter waste to devote so much energy to something you can not influence in any way shape or form .My Dad use to say “opinions are like butt holes, everyone has one but no one wants to here it”.
The one truly valuable asset we all have is time and to think how we are all squandering it all on a single person is truly mind blowing.

#111 Boomer Bill on 01.06.19 at 9:33 pm

#106 Glengarry Girl on 01.05.19 at 8:56 pm
#105 Boomer Bill

How did you confuse what I said about being able under today’s conditions to build a happy and successful life into buying a house in GTA????

No confusion on my part. It is much, much more difficult for a young person starting out in the GTA to achieve financial success with the extraordinary cost of housing. I bought and had paid off my first home in the GTA before I turned 30. I could not have done that today with the same home. Hence why those starting out today have a much more difficult time becoming financially successful than we boomers were. At least boomers who were smart enough to buy real estate in the GTA decades ago…

#112 another 99er on 01.06.19 at 9:34 pm

Political (and socio-economic) polarization has not only grown in the comment section, but in the blog content as well.
This is partly due to the broader topics covered, but also, I assumed, as a way for the blogger to stir up controversy and thus increase readership. The insults directed at the BC and Federal governments and millennials feed the tone in the comment section. Leading by example might help tone down the vitriol.

#113 Ace Goodheart on 01.06.19 at 9:35 pm

RE: “most illegals come on airplanes ” Very true. Most drugs come on airplanes too.

Trump and his supporters want to tell you that well financed, well armed Central and South American drug cartels, are sending their products across the US border in the hands of refugees, who walk across and turn themselves in at the nearest border post to claim asylum?

Yeah, of course they are. Why would you risk millions of dollars in drug deals, by using that method, when you can send the drugs over in commercial shipments, by air?

Most of the drugs that arrive in North America come over in two ways:

1. By air. Every day millions of dollars of drug shipments are unloaded at US and Canadian airports, in commercial shipments. The game is to try to disguise them as something else.

2. By water: The US coast guard has been trying to stop this for years. The latest method? Submarines. Remember, these drug cartels are rich. They build sophisticated submarine vessels, and just bring drugs in under water.

The third method is the tried and true drug mule trade method. But as I said above, the mules aren’t refugees walking across borders. They are actually for the most part, you and me. Regular middle class folks. Most of them are tourists. They agree to carry back a package or two, for a large fee, in their luggage, on the way back from that all inclusive resort vacation. Once again, the drugs come in by way of commercial airliner (which is by far and away the #1 method for smuggling drugs into North America). All those aircraft you see coming and going from Mexico, South and Central America, to North America, every day, are full of illegal drugs.

That is how they get here.

No one is going to send them over in a refugee caravan.

People are so dense sometimes.

#114 no carbon tax on 01.06.19 at 9:36 pm

I’m fascinated by the focus on Trump & the US on this blog. Must be nothing good happening in Canada to boast about?

Carbon taxes, new for 2019 added to just about everything you buy this year, driving inflation, or folks to the Bargain Grocery stores? Don’t give me that “it’s just a 39 cents a day cost” BS. It’s an insult to North of 49ers living winter 5-6 months a year.

Carbon taxes will do nothing to affect the fraud that AGW is, except to enrich governments to spend that money “wisely”, like jetting off with 1600 “assistants” to “Climate Conferences” to fleece us on this crap, in 5 Star hotels. In fact the UN has come out over the last few years and publicly stated that AGW is NOT the issue…..wealth redistribution is. Google it, I did.
So why carbon taxes? A bigger GST? You’re a sucker to pay it.

I look at carbon taxes as a “fee” (more a penalty) to pay our governments to live, breath the air and exist as a sentient being in Canada. They add insult to injury as this is a winter waste land for 5-6 months a year. You gonna stop heating your home? Who made them the guardians of CO2 emissions in the first place? You breath out CO2 with every breath? What, do they want a meter to measure it?

We in Canada, along with the Russians and Brazilians host the biggest tracts of CO2 eating forests in the world. Well, even SE Asian countries boast some prodigious forests. The oceans eat even more along the Equator. Where do you think the Rockies came from? So, why are we paying carbon taxes? Our Canadian forests sequester more carbon than we could ever produce on a yearly basis.

Carbon taxes…. the Penalty to Live in Canada.

The LPOC does not own the air you breath and I dare say they don’t own you, either. So don’t pay it.

#115 The Only Post You Need to Read on 01.06.19 at 9:37 pm

Show me how life in BC is getting anymore affordable?

Taxes up.

House prices (below 2 million dollars) up.

Rent up.

Trudeau’s budget to balance itself in 2041.

NDP can’t convict a money launderer if their political life depended on it.

The pain we are in now is worse than any recession.

Exactly how your bank overlords like it.

#116 Phylis on 01.06.19 at 9:41 pm

Up/down bias voting will promote an echo chamber, don’t bother adding the feature…

#117 AM in MN on 01.06.19 at 9:42 pm

Garth,

Thanks for the post, even though I disagree with a lot of your opinions on Trump, you offering of such a forum for discussion is a valuable service, and you should be commended.

I agree with #14, stick to the facts, don’t let emotion get in the way of judgement.

When we consider the issues in order of true importance, including to Canadians (and the real estate market), the issue of the Fed and it’s Chairman is at the top of the list.

Powell is a hard money guy first and foremost. As a Christian, I have always believed in the biblical commands to conduct your business using units of honest weight and measure, and our fiat currency system doesn’t meet that test. Trump actually understands this more than most people think.

He has made comments in the past regarding the wiping out of the wealth of workers and transferring to the money class through the money printing and favoured lending of Central Banks. These institutions are “independent”, in that they control your wealth far more than politicians do, but are accountable to no one.

His beef with Powell seems to be one of speed, not direction. The Fed is shrinking it’s balance sheet, causing a global tightening of the money supply. This matters to your life far more than 99% of what gets up the nose of the steerage section, on both sides.

The last President to do this was Reagan, and the long term effects were good beyond debate. Trump’s legacy will be similar if he allows the money supply to return to honesty. BTW, this means a target inflation rate of 0%, not 2%…. but need to unwind slowly. Long way to go to get the Fed balance sheet under $1T.

Honest money would require housing costs to be in the range that people can afford with loans they can pay back.

Trump also understands that culture is not separate from economics, and “trumps” politics. He wants to live in an English speaking country with biblically based rule of law. It’s not racist to want that, it’s just that most of the others who want it are white men who speak English. Plenty of white Marxists who don’t fit the bill, for those who think it’s all about race.

Try to keep the emotion out of it, and all will be well in your life!

#118 What is the Canadian Infrastructure Bank? on 01.06.19 at 9:43 pm

Let me tell you all about this Trudeau brain child.

A billionaire gets the job to fund some infrastructure in Canada. And make a ton of money off of it. And the rich SOB is guaranteed against loss by the Canadian tax payer thanks to Trudeau.

And the risk is placed on Canadian tax payers.

Over spend, over budget, who cares. Tax payers can mop it up.

You see the infrastructure bank is one big scam to once again fleece Canadians while promoting infrastructure development.

#119 Drill Baby Drill on 01.06.19 at 9:44 pm

Ryan drives a Porsche ! He should buy American.

#120 Glenn on 01.06.19 at 9:50 pm

Wouldn’t worry too much Garth. The 99% of us who visit and never leave a comment, also couldn’t care less what is written in the comments and never read them.

#121 BS on 01.06.19 at 9:50 pm

So when market volatility arrives, they like it. When Trump causes that volatility – by threatening the Fed chair, firing his cabinet members, making military decisions in Tweets, shutting down the government or inflaming a trade war – they justify that. In fact, they lap it up. Trump as disruptor.

The problem with the theory of Trump causing the volatility in 2018 is the fact there was no volatility in 2017 and Trump was doing the exact same thing. In fact in 2017 there was record low volatility. The market just ticked up day after day no matter what Trump tweeted or who he fired. Now all of a sudden when market volatility kicks in it is somehow Trumps fault. Doesn’t add up.

What changed in 2018? The market is freaked out over the fed raising too quickly and unwinding the balance sheet too fast. The up tick on Friday confirmed that once Powell conformed to Trumps demands and softened his stance. The fed going too fast was something Trump warned against at the start of the year in 2018. If only the fed had listened sooner we could have avoided a bad 2018. Also things are not so rosy outside the US. A democratic house didn’t help. As money managers it shocks me you guys can’t figure out what is going on. I do share the optimism. 2019 will be a good year.

#122 reynolds531 on 01.06.19 at 9:55 pm

109 mill

You’re exactly right, I could not agree more. In other news I was at the friendly neighborhood gun store this week. They’re selling “make Trudeau a drama teacher again” baseball caps.

#123 Ace Goodheart on 01.06.19 at 9:57 pm

RE: #59 Deplorable Dude on 01.06.19 at 7:07 pm

“Walls work….ask Israel and Hungary.”

What works better is a bit of understanding.

Take Israel for example. The conflict there is easy to solve. What is the #1 reason why it keeps going? You have to watch it carefully. You will understand it if you do. What usually happens is Israeli aligned “settlers” oust some Palestinians from their land, move in, settle it and expand Israel’s borders somewhat, by displacing some people and replacing them with themselves.

This happens a few times, and then you get a bunch of newly created refugees, who stoke the fires, so to speak, of the conflict in that area. Next thing you know, Palestinians (who are all for the most part victims of ethnic cleansing, impoverished, with little hope and ready to fight at the drop of a hat, against those who they perceive to have dispossessed them) are up in arms again, using whatever crude method is available to them to fight back.

And the war goes on. …

How to stop it? It’s quite simple: If Israel wants to take over some more Palestinian land, then they need to leave the original inhabitants in place. Grant them citizenship, let them vote, and don’t take their houses, don’t take their land, don’t evict them, don’t try to replace them with Jewish people. They could do that to pretty much all of Palestine, with little to no resistance.

Do you honestly think anyone wants to be governed by Hamas? They have no choice. What is the option? A passportless, stateless person, who has just been driven by force off their land, at fear of death, so it can be given to a Jewish family? Yah Hamas. You suck, but hey there’s nothing else available, and I am pissed off and want to fight.

Look what Russia did in the Ukraine. Annexed the Crimean peninsula. Did anyone try to stop them? Hell no, they were welcomed! The people living there were sick of the Ukrainian government. They took the opportunity to get under Russian control. Why? The Russians let them keep their houses, made them into Russian citizens, and treated them like people.

If you don’t want border problems, then don’t create refugees.

#124 Basil Fawlty on 01.06.19 at 10:01 pm

Corporations have taken on a trillion dollars in debt to finance stock buybacks. This has increased earnings per share and provided juicy executive bonuses. Does this leave shareholders on the hook for the borrowed trillion?

#125 Ustabe on 01.06.19 at 10:01 pm

#86 BC_Doc on 01.06.19 at 8:07 pm

Hi Garth,
I’m an American born Canadian (proud immigrant to Canada).
In my lifetime (I’m in my early 50s), I’ve witnessed the advancement of civil rights for African-Americans and watched in pride as a black man was elected president. I’ve watched as lesbians, gays, and trans folks have gained greater inclusion in our society and gained the right to same sex marriage. I am hopeful that Trumpism is an aberration which will be washed away by America’s changing demographics. Here are to the better angels of our nature to which Abraham Lincoln alluded

A belated welcome to my Canada.

Last summer my wife and I traveled via secondary roads, pulling a small teardrop trailer, across Canada. From Vancouver Island (home) to PEI we spent time in the small towns and byways of every province except Newfoundland. Three months on the road…15,000 km in all.

It is a hell of a country, populated by a hell of a people and I can categorically state that the type of discussion tolerated here was totally absent despite many a campfire session that included this type of topic.

Which seems to tell me that particular mindset is way over represented on this blog.

#126 T-Rev on 01.06.19 at 10:03 pm

Forget the haters Gartho- idealouges love demagogues, and you can’t fix stupid. The 99% that don’t comment are the smarter of the site visitors, and can’t be bothered to waste time crossing swords with the unsalvageable imbeciles ranting for Trump, chaos, and walls. Or with those who would have us focus on the gender disparities of energy projects, rather than putting out efforts towards national infrastructure to unite and strengthen this country for generations to come. Could you imagine trying to build a transcontinental railroad in 2019??? You’d never lay the first spike, never mind the last. Too many special interests. Too many idiots. But inbelieve the pendulum will swing. But maybe not before Canada slips out of the G20, and is stuck there for a generation. Hunger, and the decay of education and health services to the point where quality of life slip drastically and people are living shortened lives of dispair should be enough of a kick in the ass for people to smarten tf up.

I still believe in the wisdom of the majority…for now… but while we’re getting smarter in our ability to access and use information, we’re growing dumber by the day in our ability to think generative-ly or critically, synthesize our own solutions, or analyze anything more complex than a sound-byte. Anyway, now I’m joining the dumb1% and ranting, but just let me say I love ya Gartho, for being a principled man in an unprincipled age. Not many left with the intellectual capacity to form an individual set of values and principles, and even free with the guts to live by them.

Don’t stop.

#127 BS on 01.06.19 at 10:06 pm

28 Yukon Elvis on 01.06.19 at 5:55 pm
Rosenberg: ‘80% Chance of Recession’
As a result, David Rosenberg is doubling-down on his earlier assessment that a recession looms on the horizon.

“We’ve got more than 80 percent chance of recession just based on the fact the Fed is tightening policy,” he said (see video).
https://www.ccn.com/us-economy-is-complete-facade-says-economist-who-claims-recession-is-near/

I think Rosenberg is wrong on the recession but he is correct on the fed.

The US economy will plunge into a recession in 2019, thanks to overreach by the Federal Reserve — which raised interest rates for the fourth time in 2018. That’s the sobering assessment of Canadian economist David Rosenberg, a strategist with Gluskin Sheff, a Toronto investment firm.

Rosenberg’s summary. Trump was right. The fed went too far too fast as Trump was warning in early 2018. Notice Rosenberg doesn’t blame tweets, the wall or firing cabinet minsters on the market volatility. He knows what is going on.

#128 Fish on 01.06.19 at 10:10 pm

One in six Ontario taxpayers would get the LIFT Credit and, on average, would receive about $450 in tax relief. The tax credit would be effective January 1, 2019.

https://www.fin.gov.on.ca/fallstatement/2018/tax-relief.html

Canada Pension Plan enhancement
As of 2019, the Canada Pension Plan (CPP) is being gradually enhanced

https://www.canada.ca/en/services/benefits/publicpensions/cpp/cpp-enhancement.html

#129 PM on 01.06.19 at 10:10 pm

I sometimes wonder if Trump deliberately tweets volitile comments to temporarily sink the stock market. Anyone playing shorts could get really rich if they knew one of his idiotic tweets was coming… I’m sure he lets his friends and relatives know before he unleashes them…

#130 BS on 01.06.19 at 10:18 pm

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Net Change in Number of U.S. Manufacturing Jobs

Trump Administration 2017-2018
+473,000

Obama Administration 2009-2016
-210,000

https://www.bls.gov/

Anyone remember Obama asking Trump how he was going to bring manufacturing jobs back to the US? He said the jobs are not coming back. He asked if Trump has a magic wand?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DuhXkCF-L2E

#131 akashic record on 01.06.19 at 10:26 pm

Regardless whether getting people in the US illegally is good or bad – there are between 11 million to 22 million illegal immigrant there between 1990-2016.

The Yale study below took 1990 ” as a starting point because it fell between the amnesty President Reagan offered for undocumented immigrants in 1986 and the rapid growth of illegal immigration in the 1990s.”

https://insights.som.yale.edu/insights/yale-study-finds-twice-as-many-undocumented-immigrants-as-previous-estimates

In 29 years 11 or, according to the study more likely 22 million people, is a lot, whether they “mostly come on airplanes” or not.

By 1990 border crossing, VISA, airline boarding, etc. was fully computerized, so the fact, that the government of the most developed country in the world doesn’t have a handle on the actual number is quite remarkable.

How do you run fact-based governing, without missing the basic facts?

In the past current veteran politicians, including the biggest names, are on record to voice the need for the government to keep immigration legal. Everyone can watch the videos on the Internet.

Politicians sitting since 1990 in Congress and the House, each side, have failed miserably to enforce legal immigration, without a question.

To smudge the failure and their responsibility for the electorate, cheap tricks surfaced, like renaming illegal immigrants to undocumented immigrants.

By 2016 the political elite knew that they would never be able to resolve this issue.

Like they will never be able to resolve the accelerating growth of government debt, the idea of “balanced budget” is, to borrow from Garth, “a failed experiment in 19th-Century economics will vanish”.

Just like climate change is supposed to reach a point of no return, illegal immigration and debt has crossed that line by 2016 in the US.

Politicians pretend they “work on the issue”, but no fact support their claim. Just like as they could not handle if in 29 years there were 22 million bank robbery, OK, “undocumented cash withdrawal”, with the sole purpose of making life and the future of people, families better.

#132 White House Adult Daycare Worker on 01.06.19 at 10:30 pm

Oh, no!

PLEASE, we have another job to fill. Pentagon Chief of Staff.

If you have ANY sort of military experience, including throwing rocks at cars as a 7 year old, Good News – YOU ARE QUALIFIED!

Please apply now. We are desperate. (Positions also still open for Secretary of State and WH Chief of Staff. More available next week)

PLEEEAAAASSSEEEEEEE!

#133 Ex-Cowtown on 01.06.19 at 10:33 pm

Movie 1:

Trump is nuts. The Democrats know he’s crazy so they have no choice but to impeach him.

Democrats know that Trump not wanting to resign for being nuts proves that he is nuts, and being nuts is grounds for impeachment/removal from office, so they have no choice but to use their new Congressional powers to have him forcefully removed from office even if there’s still no evidence that any laws were broken. Trump is so crazy that evidence will eventually come out, so impeaching him is OK anyway.

Trump not wanting to resign will tank the stock market but that’s on him, because he’s crazy.

Movie 2:

The Democrats hate Trump. They’re frustrated that they can’t find any broken laws to impeach him on. They think that if they abuse their newly minted unlimited Congressional authority they can eventually find or manufacture something to threaten Trump or his family and bully him into resigning.

They know that unlimited investigations, threatening family members and abusing power works. It got both General Flynn and Cohen to plead guilty to things that aren’t illegal, so they think these tactics will work on Trump or his family.

Democrats know that using these tactics will create systemic uncertainty and tank the stock market but they hate Trump so much that they view this as acceptable collateral damage.

Which movie sounds most plausible?

#134 acdel on 01.06.19 at 10:49 pm

#101 Long-Time Lurker

Just returned from taking the pooch for a walk and decided to read up a little more.

The problem with Catherine McKenna and others is that they do not practice what they preach. People see right through it. She flies off to these climate summits with hundreds of people which need to be housed and fed and driven from location to location. I understand that she loves to swim. Of course it is in a indoor building heated by fossil fuels, the water is heated by fossil fuels.

Actually it is not the point that I am trying to make. There hearts/beliefs maybe in the right spot?? who knows!!

I think that most Canadians could understand paying a carbon tax if the money went into one pot. Using that money; we hired the best of the best of the brilliant minds out there (scientist,physicists,etc) to put there heads together and create an alternative, clean, cheap energy that would enhance all of our lives.

Solar and Wind in a cold climate does not work. During the winter on the Southern fringe if we are lucky to have a bright sunny day we may receive 7 to 8 hrs of sunlight per day; up North zero hours. Any of us that have experienced minus 25 to 45 temps; unless there is a front coming through, there is no wind. It is brutally cold, sundog weather.

The current set up is just a tax grab, it benefits no one. We are carbon neutral in Canada.

We need a politician, politicians to stop playing us as idiots. It takes money to create this, we have the resources that everybody wants, sell it to them, use a portion of that cash to hire the brightest minds out there to create the best country in the world, then sell it to the rest of the world. Not so complicated but yet so complicated.

#135 Lawnboy on 01.06.19 at 10:58 pm

Greater Fool Staff.

These days you need a thick skin, just remember this little saying;

“ sticks n stones will…..and whips and chains excite me”

Or something like that…

Keep her going boys.

#136 Fortune500 on 01.06.19 at 11:09 pm

I agreed with Ryan’s outlook yesterday and found the post informative. I guess you generally only hear the negative reactions. Happy New Year

#137 Deplorable Dude on 01.06.19 at 11:19 pm

#100 Nonplussed..”And anyway back to my own opinion she dances better than I do, even if I can’t fathom how she got elected.”

Because she’s a hot young charismatic women. That fact that she’s a borderline communist is irrelevant. The horny hipsters in New York like her.

Great example of fake news though. The lame stream media going banana’s over GOP complaints about her dancing in the Capital building…..thing is there were no GOP complaints. It’s all manufactured narrative by the MSN.

#138 NoName on 01.06.19 at 11:34 pm

@86 bc doc

Its yout buddy billy boy who signed doma in 96. Even person who run against orange dude was in support of doma until it needed to change so it can run for some thing somewhere. You shold wory about other side of equalization.

#139 yvr_lurker on 01.06.19 at 11:39 pm

Yes, I am sorry that Ryan had to take a heap of abuse. He is just trying to give his view on what will happen next year. You don’t need to believe it (I largely don’t), but no need to treat him with disrespect.

I don’t see what the obsession with Trump is for most of us in Canada, and many on this blog. He is very likely toast in two years from now. The trade impass is a problem for sure for some Canadian industries, as it is really clear that we need to diversify our markets for trading. I do understand the sentiment of some that globalism has not been beneficial to many, and that there is real resentment out there amongst the working class. Companies who offshore their profits, hiding them from taxes, are despicable. However, Trump is a false prophet for those people.

Hopefully, Canada takes steps towards diversifying our markets and supporting the local people living here (can local people afford local housing markets, are innovative companies with good opportunities coming in, can local small shops survive and not be subect to 100% tax increases which leads to their shuttering, can our kids afford to go to university or wherever for advanced training or are they being replaced by full-fee paying students from abroad). These are all important questions for me. I don’t give a hoot about whether some speculator sitting in Shanghai finds our housing market cheap or expensive. They should all be banned from the local market. I don’t give a fart about who Trump has fired/hired or tweets.

For me, I have a very high fiter on all the crazy shit going on down there with the 3-ring circus that surrounds Trump. I focus on things I can control, like buying Canadian products, and since the fall of 2016 of not crossing into the U.S. We have our tickets already for a spring school vacation in March in Ixtapa. No need to go to the U.S. while the lunatic runs the show. Have no relatives in the U.S. and at this stage zero ties..

#140 Rain City Ryan on 01.06.19 at 11:46 pm

Glad to see I’m not the only person who faithfully reads the good word of Garth then comes to the steerage section JUST to look for the flop-sters contribution!

#141 NoName on 01.06.19 at 11:46 pm

Thus, it’s hard to know if the rabble below is representative of the majority. But patterns have emerged over the past couple of years. -GT

That other 99% probably wost than steerage section crowd, only difference is impulse control that we lake here.

#142 DON on 01.06.19 at 11:58 pm

#8 Samuel on 01.06.19 at 5:20 pm

Why do people keep putting up real estate sales data in the comment section when today’s blog post had nothing to do with it? I can not be the only one who really doesn’t care what someone paid, asks and sells for again. Who cares? Real estate is falling in price. We all get that. Anyway, I like Garth’s perspective on the 1 wild card that is out there. I see it as a short term volatile factor. But more so I see it as a buying opportunity.
********************

Sounds like you don’t want the vast majority of buyers to find out? Flop provides facts and context. Enough said!

Realty bites and so does reality. But hey…Pain heals, chicks dig scars, and glory lasts forever.

Soon we’ll be on the highway to the danger zone. Living on the edge higher the intensity.

#143 schadenfreude on 01.07.19 at 12:01 am

schadenfreude

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-6558885/Why-does-feel-good-fail.html

#144 Chester on 01.07.19 at 12:12 am

I’ve known about Trump since I was young but I never once heard him referred to as a racist or any of the other disgusting terms that Liberals use to try to shut down honest debate.

#145 DON on 01.07.19 at 12:18 am

#72 Linda on 01.06.19 at 7:33 pm

I can agree with Garth that the people who want markets, RE & so forth to drop are quite possibly devoid of any of those asset classes, so they’ve no skin in the game. Except they are mistaken about having nothing to lose. As anyone can tell you, a slowing economy doesn’t necessarily translate into a less expensive cost of living. Trade barriers increase pricing & potentially can take a previously profitable enterprise & make it too costly to run. Jobs could be affected, including the jobs of those who back POTUS actions – as quite a few US government workers have discovered, regardless of whether they voted for the man or not. People who are not receiving income to pay their bills affect the service providers ability to pay their bills & so on…

*******************
The reality is that real estate world wide is suffering declines and that will affect all. Only a few people saw the US housing downturn prior to it ocurring. Why didn’t the government with access to all the data know what was about to happen back then.

There is a fine line between wishful thinking and omitted variable bias. How much does the average house cost and how much is the new iphone and how much have wages increased. Reversion. Bringing earth back down to reality.

TRUMP re-election equals Wall and spin off employment.

#146 Chris on 01.07.19 at 12:20 am

Hehe, poor Ryan. But I feel more sorry for Trump and anyone who voted for him. He’s like the junk food of politics… or perhaps the Superbowl ad of presidents. Mildly entertaining, but everyone really just wants it to be over so we can get on with the real thing.

#147 al on 01.07.19 at 12:41 am

#59 Deplorable dude, heres some “constructive facts”, or rather some context.

“2017/18 ICE arrested 235,000 illegals within the US with criminal charges/convictions; 100,000 for assault, 30,000. for sex crimes, and 4,000 for homicides”

There are at least 12.5 million illegals in the USA. 235K is 1.88 % of current illegals with a charge and/OR conviction. According to the FBI, 29.5% of american’s have had a felony charge and/or conviction. Seems like the illegals are relatively well behaved vs the current residents there. Indeed if the FBI includes them in the 29.5%, they’re bringing the average down.

“300 Americans die per week from Heroin overdose, most of which comes across that border”.

That’s mostly a result of the current drug policy and other societal issues (like many addictions). Blaming the smugglers for those deaths is ill informed to say the least. 1,692 people die of alcohol related causes every week in the USA. No cries from the deplorables to shut down Anheuser-Busch. 9,230 people die of smoking related causes every week in the USA. They’re all happily still chugging along (pun intended).

“FAIR-Federation for American Immigration Reform..” Highly contentious source.

#148 Myra Andrews on 01.07.19 at 12:42 am

Here are my views on Flops posts. Overall I love them. Always look for them and enjoy reading them. Occasionally, I am disappointed.

For example, for the property below I see no reason for posting it. It sold for $40,000 less that the 2017 purchase price but $40,000 more than the assessed price. I must be missing something. The difference is just “white noise” as they say. I would write this difference off to random fluctuations.

The details…

902-1200 Alberni st,Vancouver.
Paid 1.05 October 2017
Sold 1.01 December 2018
Originally asking 1.13
Assessment 961k

I read about this one in the Vancouver Sun home sections on Saturday:

6130 Highbury St, Vancouver (Southlands)

Assessed Value $3,009,000 2017
Listed for $2.300,000 late Oct 2018 (sold in 7 days)
Sold $2,150,000 on Nov 1, 2018

#149 SmarterSquirrel on 01.07.19 at 12:42 am

“An investment portfolio is portrayed as something only the privileged few in society can establish – folks who probably got rich trampling others, or collecting obscene government pensions.”

There are those who can’t afford it of course, but there are also those who can afford it but make bad decisions and wind up with no savings at retirement. For those able to put aside $833/month, every month, and invest it for example in a dividend growth portfolio that earns 9% annually on average (through the miracle of reinvesting dividends and dividend growth and associated stock price growth), and keep at it for 26 years, they would wind up with just about $1M in their retirement portfolio.

So if you started doing that at age 39, you’d be doing ok by the time retirement rolled around. (You should start earlier and wind up with more!) SO it’s something more than just the privileged few can establish.

Just three bad consumer purchasing decisions can rob your retirement account of $400k. If you buy an expensive smartphone at age 20, a really expensive purse or watch at age 30, and a brand new luxury car at age 40. So think about all the terrible purchasing decisions a person makes in their life, and what that means for your retirement portfolio.

If instead of spending money on things you don’t really need, if you took $833/month right away as soon as you got paid and put it into an investment account every month, and never touched it and let it grow, you’d be doing fine by the time you hit 65. You’d potentially have a cool $1M!

For those who say they can’t find $833/month to save, some of you may be right, but some of you are wrong. For those that are wrong, what would you do if you had a job with $10,000 less a year in take home pay? Wouldn’t you find a way to make that work? Wouldn’t you learn to live within the means of that lower amount of income? Well then you should be able to set aside the $833/month at least.

With a million in the bank at retirement, you could pull out about $50k a year and add that to whatever CPP or other income you get. Maybe that would give you $5k/month to live on. That’s not too bad if your roof is already paid for.

Anyway, an investment portfolio is not just for the privileged few, it’s also for the planners and the disciplined who work hard to earn and save and invest. What choice do you have? It’s either be a disciplined planner, saver and investor now or be destitute and struggle when you’re 65. I know what I’d rather be.

If you can’t save $833 more a month (or $27.39/day) then maybe you have to try harder at budgeting and saving, or try to find a way to bring in more income. Again, what choice do you have? It’s either do that or be financially stressed in your golden years.

#150 Comentarista on 01.07.19 at 1:46 am

Here’s a link that might be relevant for the commenters on current political/economic situation in Canada, the US. and the slow motion unravelling of the EU. Really a must read for all that feel themselves qualified to opinionate on Socks, Trump, globalism etc.
https://www.spencerfernando.com/2019/01/03/i-survived-communism-are-you-ready-for-your-turn/

#151 Cigarette Smoking Man on 01.07.19 at 1:57 am

Garth, You totally hit the point about the Trumpsters.

They will make up stories when seeing someone more successful than themselves they must have done something bad and possibility illegal to get there.

The worse part is that when laying the blame on someone else it gives them an excuse to better themselves.

#152 Simple Logic on 01.07.19 at 2:05 am

I would prefer a PM to be in the middle of the road who moves left or right on occasion due to circumstances or a compromise. Matthew 7:20 says it all. Translation: By what they do you shall know them. The PM made this statement twice “Canada is the world’s first post national country” we lead the way because Canada no longer has a core identity and no mainstream to be known. This is not only radical, but look what we have become under his rule. He has turned Canada upside down with his own personal ideology.
There was a time that a Canadian could travel all over the world, and I personally have seen all of USA. No matter where I went was treated with respect and dignity; to be a Canadian was special in their eyes, but not anymore. This was taken from us all by a rogue element, and in 2019 vote for the individual who can get the job done to bring us back for a better rational government. Today we are laughed at by the rest of the world perceived like clowns in some circus. Take it not in protest one against the other, but with the vote instead.

#153 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.07.19 at 2:28 am

#59 Deplorable Dude on 01.06.19 at 7:07 pm
Garth and others seem to be in willful ignorance of what the US has to deal with on it’s southern border.

Here’s some ‘constructive’ facts….

60,000 illegals attempt to cross PER MONTH.

20,000 Children smuggled in last month alone.

30% of women/girls smuggled in by ‘coyotes’ are raped.

In 2018, 17000 illegals arrested at the border with existing criminal records.

2017/18 ICE arrested 235,000 illegals within the US with criminal charges/convictions; 100,000 for assault, 30,000. for sex crimes, and 4,000 for homicides.

300 Americans die per week from Heroin overdose, most of which comes across that border.

Walls work….ask Israel and Hungary.
——–
Hungary?
Maybe you mean the East Berlin Wall.
Garth,
Start weeding out idiots like this one

#154 Biddy on 01.07.19 at 2:32 am

The thing that staggers me is how and why so many can blame one person for causing so much mayhem while at the same time ignoring or pretending there are no opposing forces at work (and that those opposing forces are only ‘good’).

For Trump to ‘start’ a trade war, there must have been opposing forces at work–otherwise, no two sides, no trade war. You dig?

Before Trump called out unfair trade practices, are we to assume they didn’t exist? And is unfair trade preferential to protectionism–and if so, how and why?

To assume open trade is only good, and protectionism only bad, is to make a huge assumption–that things like IP theft and corporate espionage etc. don’t exist when trade is open. Totally false.

It’s the widespread lack of logic and rational analysis of facts and realities, regardless of political leanings, that lead people to Trump.

The question that people should be asking is why was it allowed to go on for so long under so many previous administrations–why was it allowed to get to the point it’s now at?

It’s not because of Trump, that’s for [email protected] sure. It predates him by decades.

#155 Nonplused on 01.07.19 at 2:35 am

Nonplused, as he has before and will probably do in the future, has silenced all opponents. If you fair Canadians have to go through border security to get to the US, so does everyone else. And if there is a class of people that do not, you are being discriminated against. There is no more to say about it. Trump is an asshole, but he’s right. The two are not mutually exclusive.

#156 Stan Brooks on 01.07.19 at 3:20 am


#123 Glengarry Girl on 01.06.19 at 2:10 pm
Doug In London

I mean no disrespect, and I do hope your investments work out for you in the end, but you really should consider that they may not. I do hope the Housing Bubble corrects significantly because I’d like for my kids to experience affordable housing. You are making market calls as though you know the outcome.

The idea that somebody foresaw the market top, sold around it and now is jumping back at 20 % down is pretty bold and most likely untrue.

I think the message is that it could be a good buying opportunity for people who intend to enter the market or reallocate some new money to it and I think it is a pretty good call in long run.

As for the ‘normal times’, including normal jobs, normal taxes, normal housing and normal retirement – these are all oxymorons when we live in times that are far from normal.

I hate to disappoint you but achieving even some of those to some (little) extent would be close to miracle for you and almost mission impossible for your kids.

It is like a catch 22 – they might get the house but in severely damaged 3rd world like economy with no good paying jobs. As for retirement – forget about it.

The current economic model equalizes standard of living in the world and like it or not we go down while others go up until we meet in the middle. The problem is our debt as developing country have much less debt.

So we will see how it plays but hope alone would be a pretty bad strategy.

#157 Jay Currie on 01.07.19 at 4:26 am

MaxBerniersShorts

Good to see Max’s name out there. For the record, I am proudly Canadian and living in deepest green British Columbia – Lizy May’s riding.

I was writing in response to Garth’s drive by of Trump. I don’t love the guy but I despise the lazy minded Canadian knee jerk dismissal of the man. There are lots of reasons to disagree with Trump; but articulate them rather than throwing out red meat smears.

Garth wants civility. So do I. And the way to create civility is not to post data free shots at a guy who, on several fronts, is a very successful American President.

Which Garth knows.

#158 n1tro on 01.07.19 at 4:48 am

#109 millmech

Your dad got it wrong. It’s “Opinions are like buttholes, it’s not that everyone has one but that some are bigger than others.”

You’re welcome.

#159 fishman on 01.07.19 at 4:49 am

I can’t help myself, I like the Trumpster. His feral cunning, his fearlessness, his shamelessness when caught out, his little boy self congratulating smirk. He reminds of Murray Pezim. Promoters, bad boys, but there is always action around these guys. Dangerous, ya, but let us live in interesting times. I get bored so easy.
Sure the Trumpster taps into tribalism. Jordan Peterson says, “the trouble with identity politics is sooner or later the white men will form their own tribe & they will be very cruel. ”
Garth nailed it when he said what matters is how the Trumpster exits. As long as he’s centre stage in his own production the audience can boo or cheer, lots of fun. When the curtain drops? Can his supporters & haters politely clap, move on, or will they spill out on the streets & start fighting?
Nothing we canuckleheads up here can do about it. We don’t have a vote. Still, I’m a proactive kind of guy. A couple days ago received my firearms license possession & acquisition card in the mail. Renewed for another 5 years. I’m legal.

#160 Midnights on 01.07.19 at 4:50 am

Trump and his wall…

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/politics/trump-his-wall/

#161 Howard on 01.07.19 at 5:05 am

In a world with a dearth of politicians courageous enough to stand in the way of the globalist, nation-hating, nation-destroying elites, Trump will have to do. I don’t like the man personally but I can tolerate his outburts over the damage wrought by globalist dilettantes like Trudeau or Macron.

#162 NoName on 01.07.19 at 5:47 am

Since i was a kid i always wanted a Seiko 5, there is something about seiko 5 watch, that is magical in my mind. So to keep missery of unfulfilled desire of owning seiko 5 going, i excercised will power and bought solar recraft model, so crazyfox can prud of me…

I remember as a kid grand pa would let me wear his grand seiko to school every once in a while, but it wasn’t seiko 5, and when i would return gs i had to go back to my nerdy casio game-10 watch.

Dont give up on reading now, its not abot watch and me, its about price elasticity and consumer “control” that bozo posses.

So what i know is that amazon suggestions are only 2-5% percentage accurate, but coupled with 30% off accuracy semms to almost surpass Netflix-es recommendation acuracy of 75%.

Funny part is as soon i made purchase price went up 30%, so i can feel good about my self.

Dany Kahnaman why you do that to me.


Side note

Amazon is an average 10% more expensive than specialty online store, basically any intem over 100$ there is 70% chances that same item is available cheaper elsewhere.

—-

@fishman

Dont you find funny that our guy sels more g uns every year he stays in office…

https://thegunblog.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Screen-Shot-2018-03-29-at-01.48.39.png

#163 NoName on 01.07.19 at 6:20 am

@152 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.07.19 at 2:28 am

This wall he is talking about, one wih electricity running through it.

https://dailynewshungary.com/breaking-news-electricity-conducted-border-fence/amp/

#164 Howard on 01.07.19 at 6:57 am

#152 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.07.19 at 2:28 am
#59 Deplorable Dude on 01.06.19 at 7:07 pm

Walls work….ask Israel and Hungary.
——–
Hungary?
Maybe you mean the East Berlin Wall.
Garth,
Start weeding out idiots like this one

———————————

Read. Learn.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hungarian_border_barrier

#165 David Foster on 01.07.19 at 7:05 am

There are only 4 human races in the work. Mexican and Muslim are not any of the four.

Prejudice has many faces. – Garth

#166 Steven Rowlandson on 01.07.19 at 7:12 am

If you think Trump’s rule is horrifying you should thank the devil that I am not in charge. Democracy, communism and the rule of PC would not survive to pollute the future of humanity. The Donald is a mild mannered gentleman and a liberal next to how I would run things. I’ve seen, read and heard too much to be inclined to be merciful to criminals and perverts if I were in charge of a nation.

#167 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.07.19 at 8:10 am

@#165 Steve Rowlandson.
“Democracy, communism and the rule of PC would not survive to pollute the future of humanity. The Donald is a mild mannered gentleman and a liberal next to how I would run things.”

******

Thanks for the warning Adolph.

#168 dharma bum on 01.07.19 at 8:11 am

Readers shouldn’t take the comments personally.
Aside from the occasional intelligent and insightful observation, the crazy comments on this blog are extremely entertaining.
The more visceral, the funnier.
It’s always a hoot to read the whacked out opinions of nut jobs.
It’s akin to people watching at a Wal-Mart in the Ozarks.
Y’know, a freak show.
Keep ’em coming dogs!

#169 PeterfromCalgary on 01.07.19 at 8:14 am

People just don’t like the Trump show style and it makes them nervous. But he has actually accomplished a lot.

Made the USA more competitive on corporate taxes.
Reduced illegal immigration and increased deportations.
Drastically reduced the territory controlled by ISIS.
Calmed down North Korea.
Kept the US out of any new wars.
Approved the Keystone Pipeline.
Made the USA a real energy super power.
Rolled back excessive environmental rules.
Lowered the US unemployment rate.
Made leftists and tree-huggers really angry (which is always a good thing)

So everybody just needs to calm down and buy some US based ETFs. Things are going great in Trumps USA. Except for the opioid epidemic which is totally Obama’s fault.

#170 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.07.19 at 8:20 am

Well.
I see Parliament in Jolly old Blighty will finally be able to put a spike in this “dead horse”.
Jan 15 Brexit vote nukes the “deal”.

Back to the drawing board with less than 2.5 months to hammer out another deal or just walk blindly out the door like Sandra Bullock…..?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-vote/britains-may-to-hold-parliamentary-brexit-vote-on-january-15-bbc-idUSKCN1P10G2

#171 Simon on 01.07.19 at 8:41 am

Hello Garth,

I’m one of the 99% that reads your blog frequently yet does not (usually) comment. I’ve been coming here for years.

I very much appreciate the way you and your collaborators explain the market fundamentals. This blog is a wonderful teaching tool and I sincerely hope those who use this comment section as an outlet for their frustration don’t increase your blood pressure too much.

It would be nice if we all could have conversations where nuance is welcome. There are still those of us that strive to see both sides of every coin, and I guess we need to take part of the public debate a bit more.

Keep up the good work.

#172 Pat Jones on 01.07.19 at 8:59 am

Garth. Ignore the 1%. I am one of the 99% who never comment but follow you religiously. Keep up the good work!

#173 Pepito on 01.07.19 at 9:18 am

#107 Mrs. Fool on 01.06.19 at 9:19 pm
Some people in the US forget they have benefited from immigrants immensely, particularly in California where they have worked in agriculture, but now they are blamed for all the economic misfortunes of the average american.
____________________________

I’m always amazed at the cognitive dissonance of many who support illegal immigration with the farm workers argument. These are the same people who defend human rights yet, at the same time, fail to acknowledge the human rights tragedy of undocumented, abused farm workers with no rights what-so-ever. Such wholehearted support for undocumented immigrants by those who like their vegetables and fruits to remain cheap reeks of hypocrisy.

Perhaps, just perhaps, if there were not an abundant supply of slave workers, the agricultural industry might just have to provide living wages and workers’ rights.

#174 IHCTD9 on 01.07.19 at 9:45 am

#149 SmarterSquirrel on 01.07.19 at 12:42 am
___

Excellent. I’m always of the opinion that regular working stiffs need a 40 year investing period. 500.00/mo. or $16.44/ day, at 6-7% will just pop you over a Mil in 40 years. At this cost, it’s just a matter of doing it – just about everyone can make arrangements to set aside this amount.

Another benefit of 40 year periods is that the interest far exceeds the deposits when done. If you did the above example, you’d have 960-1000K of which 725K+ would be interest. Sweet!

The biggest problem with the above idea is getting 20 somethings to get on with it. They don’t care (I didn’t either, but got lucky by rolling with the advice of others) at that age – too many other “priorities”.

#175 LivinLarge on 01.07.19 at 9:51 am

“I’ve known about Trump since I was young but I never once heard him referred to as a racist or any of the other disgusting terms that Liberals use to try to shut down honest debate.”…so? He wasn’t president back then too.

BTW, both he and his father have long been accused of being racist in their real estate dealings. It just wasn’t front page news until he became president. Until elected all he did was build condos, hotels and golf courses and the occasional failed casino and there’s not a lot of press around doing that.

#176 BC_Doc on 01.07.19 at 10:02 am

@#125 Ustabe

Thank you. 2018 was my 25th year in Canada. I’m at the point where I’ll soon have spent more time living in Canada than my country of birth. I spent almost a decade stUdying and working in Quebec before moving to western Canada. As an immigrant, I’m happy to say I speak both official languages, English and Quebecois!

Cheers,

BC Doc

#177 IHCTD9 on 01.07.19 at 10:10 am

#159 fishman on 01.07.19 at 4:49 am

….A couple days ago received my firearms license possession & acquisition card in the mail. Renewed for another 5 years. I’m legal.
_____

I’ve been so tempted to get my PAL over the last couple years. Then a hunting license for birds like duck, turkey, geese, grouse etc..

I’d probably get a very good .22 Long Rifle, and a run of the mill 12 gauge shotgun, and a heavier caliber 1200+ fps air rifle.

Then I’d get a .308 semi-auto and a few thousand rounds just in case SHTF happens :).

#178 Ex-Cowtown on 01.07.19 at 10:18 am

BTW, both he and his father have long been accused of being racist in their real estate dealings. It just wasn’t front page news until he became president. Until elected all he did was build condos, hotels and golf courses and the occasional failed casino and there’s not a lot of press around doing that.

++++++++++++++++++++++++

Not a lot of press around Trump when he was a developer? Are you serious???

As to Trump’s racist antics when prior to becoming president, I guess he didn’t actually sue the city of Palm Beach to allow minorities onto golf courses.

“Trump insisted on including Jews and blacks at Palm Beach golf course in 1990s”

http://netrightdaily.com/2016/03/trump-insisted-on-including-jews-and-blacks-at-palm-beach-golf-course-in-1990s/

You Trump haters are the worst. Try not making crap up for once.

You linked to the “Net Right Daily.” And you tell us CNN is biased. Hilarious. – Garth

#179 the ryguy on 01.07.19 at 10:20 am

#113 Ace Goodheart on 01.06.19 at 9:35 pm
—————————————————

Ive never seen it argued that the refugees themselves are bringing in drugs..what a silly and inefficient mode of distribution. I totally agree that you can pick that argument apart.

Now I would, as would many others, point out that these refugees will be relying on all types of social services that they have never paid into, and that is why you turn them away.

Mexico offered them asylum already..the rules are pretty straight forward, if you are claiming asylum you do it in the first country that offers it, you don’t get to shop around.

But hey, why lets rules and facts get in the way of a good sob story right Ace?

#129 PM on 01.06.19 at 10:10 pm
————————————-
So glad you brought this up..google cattle futures trading to see how slimy Trump really is.

#180 Duke on 01.07.19 at 10:24 am

#8 Samuel on 01.06.19 at 5:20 pm
Why do people keep putting up real estate sales data in the comment section when today’s blog post had nothing to do with it? I can not be the only one who really doesn’t care what someone paid, asks and sells for again. Who cares? Real estate is falling in price. We all get that. Anyway, I like Garth’s perspective on the 1 wild card that is out there. I see it as a short term volatile factor. But more so I see it as a buying opportunity.

=======================

Hey, Sam. If you don’t like it, you can simply skip to the next. I, including many others, appreciate the pink snow report from Mr. Flop.

#181 Bearer of Bad News on 01.07.19 at 10:37 am

No Global War? Reading this eerily accurate prophecy from 1968…I beg to differ:

An old woman of 90 from Valdres in Norway had a vision from God in 1968. The evangelist Emanuel Minos had meetings where she lived. He had the opportunity to meet her, and she told him what she had seen. He wrote it down, but thought it to be so unintelligible that he put it in a drawer. Now, almost 50 years later, he understands he has to share the vision with others.

The woman from Valdres was a very alert, reliable, awake and credible Christian, with a good reputation among all who knew her. This is what she saw:

“I saw the time just before the coming of Jesus and the outbreak of the Third World War. I saw the events with my natural eyes. I saw certain things that would take place just before the return of Jesus, and just before the last calamity happens, a calamity the likes of which we have never before experienced.

She mentioned four waves:

1. “First before Jesus comes and before the Third World War breaks out, there will be a ‘détente’ like we have never had before. There will be peace between the super powers in the east and the west, and there will be a long peace. (Remember, that this was in 1968 when the cold war was at its highest.) In this period of peace there will be disarmament in many countries, also in Norway and we are not prepared when it (the war) comes. The Third World War will begin in a way no one would have anticipated—and from an unexpected place.

2. “A lukewarmness without parallel will take hold of the Christians, a falling away from true, living Christianity. Christians will not be open for penetrating preaching. They will not, like in earlier times, want to hear of sin and grace, law and gospel, repentance and restoration. There will come a substitute instead: prosperity (happiness) Christianity.

“The important thing will be to have success, to be something; to have material things, things that God never promised us in this way. Churches and prayer houses will be emptier and emptier. Instead of the preaching we have been used to for generations—like, to take your cross up and follow Jesus—entertainment, art and culture will invade the churches where there should have been gatherings for repentance and revival. This will increase markedly just before the return of Jesus.

3. “There will be a moral disintegration that the world has never experienced the likes of. People will live together like married without being married. (I do not believe the concept ‘co-habitor’? existed in 1968.) Much uncleanness before marriage, and much infidelity in marriage will become the natural (the common), and it will be justified from every angle. Just before Jesus’ return there will be TV programs like we have never experienced.

“TV will be filled with such horrible violence that it teaches people to murder and destroy each other, and it will be unsafe in our streets. People will copy what they see. There will not be only one ‘station’ on TV, it will be filled with ‘stations.’ (She did not know the word ‘channel’ which we use today. Therefore she called them stations.) TV will be just like the radio where we have many ‘stations,’ and it will be filled with violence. People will use it for entertainment. We will see terrible scenes of murder and destruction one of the other, and this will spread in society. Sex scenes will also be shown on the screen, the most intimate things that takes place in a marriage.” It will happen, and you will see it. All we have had before will be broken down, and the most indecent things will pass before our eyes.

4. “People from poor countries will stream to Europe. They will also come to Scandinavia and Norway. There will be so many of them that people will begin to dislike them and become hard with them. They will be treated like the Jews before the Second World War. Then the full measure of our sins will have been reached.

The tears streamed from the old woman’s eyes down her cheeks. “I will not see it, but you will. Then suddenly, Jesus will come and the Third World War breaks out. It will be a short war.” (She saw it in the vision.)

“All that I have seen of war before is only child’s play compared to this one, and it will be ended with a nuclear atom bomb. The air will be so polluted that one cannot draw one’s breath. It will cover several continents, America, Japan, Australia and the wealthy nations. The water will be contaminated? We can no longer till the soil. The result will be that only a remnant will remain. The remnant in the wealthy countries will try to flee to the poor countries, but they will be as hard on us as we were on them.

“The one who has his sin forgiven and has Jesus as Savior and Lord, is safe.”

#182 Glengarry Girl on 01.07.19 at 10:43 am

#72 Linda

You are wrong to assume that people like me that want a correction to occur have no skin in the game and have nothing to loose or are vengeful or jealous. Some of us would like the fundamentals and principals of economics to return to Health for our Children. We see this Debt based Economy as very unhealthy and believe that our Children will ultimately be burdened with the inevitable negative effects. I would like to see a slow controlled correction with increased interest rates and house values returning to post Bubble. I would like for people to get incentive to save rather than get indebted beyond their means. If we LOOSE some of our money for this to happen, we have accepted that as a consequence. Some on here are offended by this vision of mine and have been quite negative.

Garth, I am a daily reader and occassionally when I comment it is met with negativity that I don’t enjoy. I have decided to edit how I contribute to the comment section. I respect your writing and this blog and I find much of what you share with us to be positive and productive and I believe you to be a good person with honorable intentions. Much of the comments, as you have so perfectly described in this post, have lost civility. I myself enjoy reading about all economic news and have started reading other blogs like Wolfstreet and Bruce Wilds which are helpful and resourceful for my personal planning. I hope you continue to write, I believe at some point you may cut the comment section as it decends into Trumpism, like a plague. There is very little safe places left for common sense and decency to freely exchange ideas, your Blog is one of a kind. Anyone on here have Blog reading suggestions for me?

#183 LivinLarge on 01.07.19 at 10:44 am

Here’s an open question for any of the Three Wise Men at TI regarding the cannabis investment sector.

I know you were unanimous in the summer that it was a fools errand to invest in cannabis second only to the crypto market but have things changed now that big players like Coke and Constellation Brands have become involved in a major way?

Yes, the Canadian companies had a crazy run up and crash after October’s legalization but are there long term legs in the sector. Even the December meltdown doesn’t seem to have crashed below their pre run up levels or at least not by much.

With provincial sellers like Ontario Cannabis Store unable to keep up with demand even now after almost 3 months if seems like a good indicator to me that if you can’t keep up with demand then sales are going to skyrocket until there is a surplus in supply and I see no indication that situation will be upon us any time soon.

I know, individual company share are not your playing ground but what about cannabis based ETFs?

Nope. – Garth

#184 Deplorable Dude on 01.07.19 at 10:49 am

DELETED

#185 LivinLarge on 01.07.19 at 10:55 am

Ryguy, prior to running, the press that The Don got was principally from the NY Post and the National Enquirer. Now we know that at least the Enquirer was in his pocket and one of his first choices to burying unfavorable intrusions into his life along with Michael Cohen.

He built condos only the true 1% could afford (his absolute right) but when he was running for president he pledged to bar “all Muslims” from entering America and had his own “holy war” on anyone (including judges born in the US legally) of Mexican heritage. Some loons try to argue that since Muslims and Mexicans aren’t racist, he can’t be racist…sorry that doesn’t wash for me.

#186 not 1st on 01.07.19 at 10:57 am

While this blog is Garths to do with what he wants, the idea of free speech, calling out bad ideas or challenging narratives that don’t fit the reality should never be in question. Once that is gone, so is our society.

So if religion is off the table lets make it so because there are a lot of bad ideas in there. Fine if they stay in an old book, but trouble is people want to enact them.

And if somebody is constantly bleating out a single narrative without nuance, that should be criticized harshly. You tell me the economy is rocking, yet dig into the data and its clear that’s not true. Or you tell me I will make money on a carbon tax, clearly that is false. Or you tell me that Canada can be powered by nothing but solar panels and some hope. I know better.

Narrative pushers are todays car salesman. Take it with a large grain of salt and push back.

#187 Deplorable Dude on 01.07.19 at 11:00 am

#153 Pontiuz Pilates…Hungary?
Maybe you mean the East Berlin Wall.
Garth,
Start weeding out idiots like this one

——————-

Try 30 seconds on Google,…..sheesh…

Seems to me most of the incivilaty on this blog comes from the left, name calling the right…

#188 firsttimewriter on 01.07.19 at 11:00 am

“An investment portfolio is portrayed as something only the privileged few in society can establish – folks who probably got rich trampling others, or collecting obscene government pensions. ”

If you have a few hundred at the end of the month after bills, rent, food, then yes i would say you are one of the privileged few. You always talk about putting thousands away per year in a portfolio (maxing out your tfsa, etc), but i think many people out there are like me, combined household income of 70k and 2 kids. There is no way i can put away more than 2k per year, and i have been trying to do that for the last 15 years…

And sure i could work at a different job, where i would be on call and not have as good of a quality of life and make more money, but whats the point? So i can save it all for when im 65 and barely alive?

housing prices were never caused by the chinese, but good ole fashion north american greed.

#189 LivinLarge on 01.07.19 at 11:02 am

Thank you Fearless Leader. I still wonder but you know far far more than I do about markets and investmenting, I’ll just have to watch from the sidelines. You are right much more than I am so I will continue to defer to your decades of experience.

BTW, on a nearly similar note, my portfolio value may be down a lot but my personal holdings of dividend stocks are still delivering much better than 4% of yield and and a nice tax treatment (for now at least).

#190 Fish on 01.07.19 at 11:03 am

With legislation of pot , my thoughts it’s a discrase, alot of pain

try to find a half decent place to rent , WHAT A JOKE, PERHAPS buying A HOME Forget IT WHAT A JOKE

HOW about Taxes maybe they will come down,? Tax? what a joke, >

also I personally would rather use snail mail a least I would know that it was delivered >than email

NOT MY problem , Thanks Get use to it, Thats Life, Don’t come to me for free handouts, Good luck article, ???

Unmasking Financial Predators Russ Alan Prince

https://www.forbes.com/sites/russalanprince/2017/11/06/unmasking-financial-predators/#35b5a01f3821

#191 not 1st on 01.07.19 at 11:13 am

#182 Glengarry Girl on 01.07.19 at 10:43 am

Politely responding, what you are asking for in the Canadian housing market will bankrupt this nation. The wealth that would evaporate from this country would put your daughters in the poorhouse forever. Look a little deeper.

Secondly your reference to anyone supporting trump as Trumpism is offensive. You are trying to drum up a term on par with Nazism or something because you are triggered. Its disingenuous and its typical tactic of the left when they have no countering policies.

So tell us, what is your solution for illegal immigration or Chinese espionage or for offshoring of jobs or the trade imbalance. Please tell.

#192 LivinLarge on 01.07.19 at 11:31 am

“also I personally would rather use snail mail a least I would know that it was delivered >than email”…have you ever experienced an emal postal strike? Your choice but not everyone’s.

#193 new world order on 01.07.19 at 11:39 am

GT, you know your investing but you missed the call on the RE trajectory the last decade.

Home represents humanity’s most visceral ache—and our oldest desire. And when you couple that with the cost of money, globalization, and one of the safest socialist countries in the world, the end result is not surprising.

From a standard of living perspective though, it’s all downhill from here. The great equalization is underway.

signed, the new world order.

#194 Doug in London on 01.07.19 at 11:42 am

When stocks wobble, markets shed 2% or 3% in one session, or other financial asset classes take a temporary drubbing, the herd’s convinced everything is going to zero. Actually, they want it.
————————————————————-
Rather than resent the so called elites, why doesn’t the so called herd follow their example, diving in head first and going on a frantic buying binge of stocks and ETFs whenever they go on sale, like what happened before Christmas? The herd has yet to realise 2 things that the elites know, namely: 1) The secret to success is hard work, that’s why it’s remained a secret for so long, and 2) The elites believe in good luck and find that the more effort they put into anything they do the luckier they get.

#195 Trumped on 01.07.19 at 11:42 am

of course there will be no recession. Once the deep state gets rid of trump, rates will be dropped again. just watch.

#196 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.07.19 at 11:47 am

@#185 Bearer of Bad News

Trumpocalypse2019 I presume.
Or just another Nostradamus wanna be….?

#197 IHCTD9 on 01.07.19 at 11:58 am

So what’s best:

1. Sever lot and build (ie fight with city hall, spend a few thousand and a year minimum, and maybe not get to sever). If I do get the severance, I could put up a nice place for about the cost of what I’d get for the old place. IE, move up for $0.00. However, it would be a gigantic headache start to finish, and no guarantees.

2. Fix up the old house and send the roots down deeper – maybe to the end. Might cost 40-50K (Most labour by me) but would make the place a real sweetheart. Not much headache, not rushed, not too expensive. I like this idea for some reason.

3. Sell and buy another place. This would result in a 250-350K mortgage. 350K would be ~1750.00/mo which is easily afforded, and a 550-650K place is very nice out here. No headache, easy as pie, most expensive option, but no issues paying it. I like this too, but worthy places are few and far between, it would probably be a long drawn out choosing process.

Important financial notes: current house is paid for, portfolio is built and in process, no debt of any kind.

Important local RE notes: Right now, the bang for the buck is in the 600-1 Mil range out here. The higher end. The lower end houses like mine are getting more than what they should IMHO. I’d get 300-350K for my old place, a brand new nice subdivision house is 425K, a brand new house on a rural acre is 525K.

I expect this to continue as these houses are sitting near 100 days on MLS- even with reductions. A great deal on an expensive place may be coming in the next couple years. I feel the gap between building and buying on the bang for the buck front might be razor thin here shortly in the right price range.

#198 Doug t on 01.07.19 at 12:01 pm

#181 Bearer of bad news

sweet jesus eh seriously eh wtf

RATM

#199 Ex-Cowtown on 01.07.19 at 12:10 pm

You linked to the “Net Right Daily.” And you tell us CNN is biased. Hilarious. – Garth
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Show me that the story is false then. That should be easy to do.

#200 Ace Goodheart on 01.07.19 at 12:11 pm

Doing some reading regarding our own federal elections to take place in November.

Starting to think T2 is going to make the same mistake that Stephan Dion made which paved the way for Stephen Harper’s landslide win: He is going to campaign on a tax.

At some point during the election campaign, he will likely be asked what he expects his “carbon tax” to do to the average person’s monthly bills.

His answer will have to be something along the lines of:

“well, you will pay more for gasoline, more for natural gas to heat your house, more for electricity (coal and natural gas fired electricity generation in Ontario), and many of the household items you currently consume, including groceries (transportation costs and production costs), anything produced in a factory, anything imported, any service that requires the use of a heating system or transportation, basically everything in your life, will go up in price”.

When questioned, what will this do to the average middle class family earning say $100,000 per year with two income earners (60K to mom, 40K to dad for example), who have around $200.00 left every month after paying all their bills, his response will have to be:

“Well, likely they will not be able to pay their bills. They will have to downsize. That is the point of carbon taxation, to force people to produce less carbon dioxide. So they’ll need a smaller house, one of them will need to walk to work or take transit (which will cost more because buses run on diesel and subways run on electricity – the costs of which will both increase after the carbon tax takes effect). Basically, the average family will have to get by with less. Live in smaller houses, not heat their houses as warm in the winter, turn their lights out, cancel their vacations (jet aircraft run on kerosene, which, yup, you guessed it, produces carbon dioxide when burned).

When asked, what do you think will be the effect on low income families, T2 will have to respond something like:

Well, they’ll have to eat less. Groceries have transportation costs and production costs, and you have to heat and cool supermarkets. All of that will get more expensive after the tax. So they’ll have to find a way to eat less food. It will be hard for them. A lot will suffer. But it’s for the greater good, after all…..

When asked, how will this carbon tax effect you, Mister Prime Minister, and your group of trust fund kid friends, his response would be something like:

“well, it won’t really effect us. I mean, a few extra hunnies per month, is nothing for a trust fund kid. We earn our incomes off of investments, so we already pay less tax than the rest of you. And we have large trust funds, multiple millions of dollars, that pay out hundreds of thousands of dollars to us every year, at ultra low tax rates, so really, we can spare a few extra hunnies per month. We won’t even notice…

That, will lose an election. You can’t campaign on a tax. Particularly when that tax disproportionately effects the poor. Carbon taxation effects people, in a graduated scale, going from zero effect on the wealthy, 1%, up to a massive, life changing effect on the poor, low income people (who won’t be able to afford to buy food or basic housing).

You can’t win an election like that. T2 has a serious problem.

#201 Deplorable Dude on 01.07.19 at 12:18 pm

DELETED

#202 Short War on 01.07.19 at 12:24 pm

#181 Bearer of Bad News – Its best to stick with the Holy Scriptures. Just imagine writing a book today that predicts the future thousands of years from now with complete accuracy. This has already been done. The bible that we know is made up of 90% prophetic claims, and over 100 have become into being with complete accuracy. There are just a few more to be accomplished. The short war will be the battle of Gog Magog which starts off the tribulation period with the signing of a 7 year peace treaty.

#203 Ace Goodheart on 01.07.19 at 12:32 pm

The biggest problem facing the world economy right now hands down without a doubt is going to be inflation.

Usually you have one or two inflationary issues, and then they are controlled by moderating forces, so you get a normal inflation rate.

What we have right now is: carbon taxation, trade tariff wars, a US President who attacks their central bank whenever they try to normalize interest rates, equities markets in free fall despite robust earnings.

All the spare parts to put together this massive hurricane of inflation.

And no one sees this. If central banks do not continue to aggressively raise interest rates, this will become an unstoppable wage-price spiral. And Trump will fire the head of his country’s central bank, if this person raises rates again.

Likely it is already too late.

#204 Godth on 01.07.19 at 12:33 pm

reading this comment section is depressing. clearly the education system has failed many, public libraries are useless, the media is a mess and the internet has made it worse. there’s an echo chamber for everyone now and black becomes white while up becomes down. people have memories like a sieve and the attention span of a gnat.

talking about illegal immigration it may be useful to remember where the term “banana republics” came from, iran-contra (?), death squads, the school of the americas, etc. then there’s us farm subsidies and dumping in other countries like mexico with corn, but much more widespread than that. the fact that many us businesses have enjoyed the cheap unregulated labour over the decades can’t be forgotten nor that obama was deporting plenty quietly. every rational person agrees borders are necessary but that’s not the issue, it’s plain old scapegoating powerless people again.

in the good old days of mesopotamia this is about the time a corrupted, decadent society would be overrun by a mounted horde from the north/east. instead we’re watching a death by thousand cuts, and a completely out of touch elite wallow in their delusion. that’s not new either. more war is usual in such circumstances.
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/331227.A_Short_History_of_Progress

p.s. stop screaming marxist and read some actual marx ffs. it’s mostly a critique of capitalism and very few answers are given, it just sort of ….and then what? how should society be organized…ayn rand enjoyed her social services when she needed them too.

#205 cmccullo on 01.07.19 at 12:39 pm

2 cents from of the 99% – the comments were a lot more friendly and funny back in the day. The folks who felt it necessary to indulge themselves with this weird “end of days” mentality were a whacked out minority. We are all guests here – maybe time to revisit your sense of humour, and be nice to the hosts providing free advice. If it’s not to your liking, feel free to sashay on down the road. 99% of us will not miss you.

#206 BNN Sux on 01.07.19 at 12:46 pm

Hey Garth – check out this guy’s shirt:

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/housing-bear-who-called-2018-u-s-slowdown-says-worst-is-yet-to-come-1.1194202

Who wears a dress shirt with a different colour? Is this guy shopping at Le Chateau circa 2006? Come on!

#207 Remembrancer on 01.07.19 at 12:57 pm

#191 not 1st on 01.07.19 at 11:13 am
Secondly your reference to anyone supporting trump as Trumpism is offensive.
————————————————————
If “-ism” is causing you emotional pain given a belief that it is automatically alluding to National Socialism, would ‘Trump Doctrine’ be inoffensive to you or do you have countering terminology to use to describe in response the set of beliefs, actions etc evidenced by words and actions of Donald Trump and voiced by his supporters so-called base?

Asking for a friend.

#208 LivinLarge on 01.07.19 at 12:58 pm

“Rather than resent the so called elites, why doesn’t the so called herd follow their example, diving in head first and going on a frantic buying binge of stocks and ETFs whenever they go on sale, like what happened before Christmas?”…let them eat cake????

Buy with what? The ones able to buy have already taken such a beating even the least risk averse have their collective heads down for a while.

I agree that ther are some wonderful fire sale oportunities right now (like CDN banks) but not many average folks have $10-20 grand sitting with no home.

This is one of the reasons that I buy and hold great long term dividend payers like the banks. Div is almost written in stone and treated so advantageously at tax time. The only guaranteed (pretty much) shares I know of are the major banks. If you bought today, the yield is a bit north of 4% or an equivalent of say 5-6% of interest.

Sure I would love some capgains to go along with that 5% but that’s not always in the cards and a steady rolling 5% sure beats a capricious capgains market.

#209 MF on 01.07.19 at 1:03 pm

I still like Trump. I don’t think he is racist at all. ”Trumpism” to me is about being pro business, pro American, pro worker, pro military, pro stock market and anti illegal immigrant, anti terrorist. I don’t think he is anti free teade either, but he uses tariffs as a bargaining chip. The market was wrong about him from the beginning so no surprises there.

Geopolitically he was right to criticize the UN, some European leaders, and to call out Iran. He was right to try and make peace with North Korea.

MF

#210 Lorne on 01.07.19 at 1:03 pm

#112 another 99er on 01.06.19 at 9:34 pm
Political (and socio-economic) polarization has not only grown in the comment section, but in the blog content as well.
This is partly due to the broader topics covered, but also, I assumed, as a way for the blogger to stir up controversy and thus increase readership. The insults directed at the BC and Federal governments and millennials feed the tone in the comment section. Leading by example might help tone down the vitriol.
……….
Totally agree!

#211 KLNR on 01.07.19 at 1:17 pm

@#202 Short War on 01.07.19 at 12:24 pm
#181 Bearer of Bad News – Its best to stick with the Holy Scriptures. Just imagine writing a book today that predicts the future thousands of years from now with complete accuracy. This has already been done. The bible that we know is made up of 90% prophetic claims, and over 100 have become into being with complete accuracy. There are just a few more to be accomplished. The short war will be the battle of Gog Magog which starts off the tribulation period with the signing of a 7 year peace treaty.
____________________________________

LMAO
best post of the day.
Thanks for the laughs.

#212 KLNR on 01.07.19 at 1:24 pm

@#178 Ex-Cowtown on 01.07.19 at 10:18 am
_______________

You linked to the “Net Right Daily.” And you tell us CNN is biased. Hilarious. – Garth

___________________

Bwahahaha.
So typical of these folks.
Only see what they want to see.

#213 Godth on 01.07.19 at 1:32 pm

#205 cmccullo
the notion that there can be infinite growth on a finite planet is hilariously insane. the exponential function goes quickly, particularly at the end. do you believe in maths?
Arithmetic, Population and Energy – a talk by Al Bartlett
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O133ppiVnWY

more humour:
“We’ve arranged a global civilization in which most crucial elements profoundly depend on science and technology. We have also arranged things so that almost no one understands science and technology. This is a prescription for disaster. We might get away with it for a while, but sooner or later this combustible mixture of ignorance and power is going to blow up in our faces.”
― Carl Sagan, The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark
nobody is coming to save us from ourselves, anyone thinking otherwise is funny too.
Carl Sagan – Pale Blue Dot
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wupToqz1e2g

#214 LivingLarge on 01.07.19 at 1:36 pm

“That, will lose an election. You can’t campaign on a tax.” I’m not so sure. Didn’t we fight an election on implimenting the GST ages ago?

Personally, I think Canadians won’t defeat a government over a tax that hasn’t been already rolled out and the voters have first hand experience with its impact. I only have that single example to go by so I sure could be dead wrong.

#215 Deplorable Dude on 01.07.19 at 1:39 pm

Well since Garth keeps deleting my attempts to respond to rebuttals about the wall all I’ll say is this…..

Me-thinks there are a lot of hypocrites out there who don’t believe one should be able to defend one’s borders.

How many of you leave your front door unlocked and open at night…..?

Ya, didn’t think so.

Nobody advocates open borders. – Garth

#216 M. Towne on 01.07.19 at 1:40 pm

Hey Garth,

I appreciate your blog and the insight it provides. I don’t agree with all of your views, and you can be perhaps a bit too abrasive at times, but these are sidebars. You do good stuff and it’s helped a lot of us.

Same with Ryan and Doug. I hope they’ll keep writing the Saturday posts as I get a lot out of those as well.

#217 Are You A Novelist Now on 01.07.19 at 1:42 pm

#211 KLNR – When is your book coming out with the prophets, describing thousands of years into the future over 100 events taking place with complete accuracy? I will get the last laugh when all is said and done. Keep your eye on the 7 year peace treaty yet to be signed, because this will be the beginning of the 7 year tribulation period. In 3 1/2 years guess who will sit declaring himself the Messiah? Then the great tribulation begins for the final battle.

#218 Boomer Bill on 01.07.19 at 1:50 pm

#197 IHCTD9 on 01.07.19 at 11:58 am
So what’s best:

Option 1 in my opinion is best. Sure, more headaches but once done you have a home that is paid for and is now worth about about double its value based on your numbers. Sever , sell, get your 350k and build for 350k. New home is worth 700k. On the other hand you sell and buy for 700k and take on a 350k mortgage. Why wouldn’t you want to take option 1 and instead of making that $1750 a month mortgage payment, make it a payment to your Garth approved balanced portfolio? Run the numbers for 20 years and you will be shocked at the difference…. No brainer in my books.

#219 Garth 3:16 on 01.07.19 at 1:55 pm

#215 Are You A Novelist Now on 01.07.19 at 1:42 pm

“In 3 1/2 years guess who will sit declaring himself the Messiah?”

There is one Messiah and he speaks to this great land on a daily basis and it is the founder of this pathetic blog, the bearded mystic sage, all knowing, all wise, financial oracle from the east, pecuniary prognosticator without equal, lone voice of fiscal reason crying out in the financial wilderness of Canada and over all jolly good fellow, Captain Garth in whom we trust Turner!
Garth 3:16.

#220 Alistair McLaughlin on 01.07.19 at 2:17 pm

@#214, the 1988 election was on Free Trade and nothing else. The GST was barely a gleam in Mulroney’s eye in 1988. It was not implemented until 1991. While it was absolutely the right policy, rage against the GST really killed them in the next election. Chretien won in 1993 largely on his promise to eliminate it. “I will get rid of it. It is gone.” A silly promise he was quite right in doing a U-turn on once he had won. Oddly enough the voting public forgave him for that U-turn on a major campaign promise, likely because they, too, realized that there is no reasonable alternative to the GST. So you’re correct that voters can sometimes be accepting and forgiving of the implementation of a new tax. But usually only years after the fact.

#221 IHCTD9 on 01.07.19 at 3:19 pm

#218 Boomer Bill on 01.07.19 at 1:50 pm
#197 IHCTD9 on 01.07.19 at 11:58 am
So what’s best:

Option 1 in my opinion is best. Sure, more headaches but once done you have a home that is paid for and is now worth about about double its value based on your numbers. Sever , sell, get your 350k and build for 350k. New home is worth 700k. On the other hand you sell and buy for 700k and take on a 350k mortgage. Why wouldn’t you want to take option 1 and instead of making that $1750 a month mortgage payment, make it a payment to your Garth approved balanced portfolio? Run the numbers for 20 years and you will be shocked at the difference…. No brainer in my books.
___

Well it’s not so cut and dried. If I built for 350K and sold the old house for 350K I’d have a new house for 0.00. I might be able to sell said house for 400-450K in my hood (Maybe…) – no houses will sell here for 700K, wrong neighbourhood for that kind of price (the lot is right next door to current house). Right now 700K houses are not even selling in the RIGHT neighbourhoods!

To build what I want for 350K, that means I’m doing a lot of the work myself – so it won’t be a walk in the park, or quick. Compare that to a MASSIVE upgrade in house, land, location, everything for another 200K – maybe less – and with no work or headaches? It may not be so black and white in 2-3 years time. Value for the dollar compared to effort and BS expended ratios are getting real close. Building is such a PITA these days.

I realize another mortgage sucks compared to putting the same $ into a B+D Portfolio – but I’m cool with that. The wife and I worked hard to get debt free and simultaneously get a portfolio up and running, so the hard stuff is done, and I’m liking easy the older I get :).

If I can get bang for the buck – I’ll go the easy way. We gross over 10K/mo, so a 1750.00 monthly is easy. We’d likely pound on a 1K lump sum per month if allowed, killing the mortgage off in 12 -14 years or so. We’d still be able to fund the portfolio – that’s a requirement that’s not coming off the table.

In 3 years we might be empty nesters and for the first time in our lives, will have money piling up all over the place for lack of big bills to pay.

Also I will admit, I am tiring of the hard but cheap way I’ve always done things. I don’t think I’d get hit with a lightning bolt if I went easy and expensive just once :).

#222 Mattl on 01.07.19 at 3:21 pm

IHCTD9 – if you think there is a reasonable chance at splitting the lot that is the obvious choice.

We are on 2 acres now, lake view, and I sure hope we have a shot at 1-2 lots on this property in the next 20 years. There are rumors the guy behind us is thinking of splitting his 20 acres which would require an access road that would open up my neighbors property, and possibly ours.

Would sell the house and lots and move to another private acreage. And retire, would be a massive windfall which is why I think its a huge longshot.

#223 PastThePeak on 01.07.19 at 3:28 pm

#214 LivingLarge on 01.07.19 at 1:36 pm
“That, will lose an election. You can’t campaign on a tax.” I’m not so sure. Didn’t we fight an election on implimenting the GST ages ago?

Personally, I think Canadians won’t defeat a government over a tax that hasn’t been already rolled out and the voters have first hand experience with its impact. I only have that single example to go by so I sure could be dead wrong.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

You are partially correct – the campaign was about a tax. The 1993 federal election featured the Liberals promising to *remove* the GST (which had been put in place by the previous PC gov’t). The Liberals won on their promise to remove the GST, but decided it brought in too much money and kept it.

So no – not a successful example of a party running on the implementation of a *new* tax.

The coming election will feature a battle about the Carbon Tax, but the Liberals will not answer anything like what the previous poster said. Libs will say that people actually will get money, it is neutral, and it will save the planet. When looked at in this light, how could everyone not want such a tax…

#224 Doug in London on 01.07.19 at 3:31 pm

@LivinLarge, post #208:
Buy with what? That’s why you need to have a fixed income portion in your investments. You can cash some in during those blowoff sales like we had in December. The other strategy is to have a margin trading account and borrow money to buy stocks or ETFs. That’s the ONLY time you should run up margin debt, when these dirt cheap sales occur.

#225 KLNR on 01.07.19 at 3:38 pm

@#217 Are You A Novelist Now on 01.07.19 at 1:42 pm
#211 KLNR – When is your book coming out with the prophets, describing thousands of years into the future over 100 events taking place with complete accuracy? I will get the last laugh when all is said and done. Keep your eye on the 7 year peace treaty yet to be signed, because this will be the beginning of the 7 year tribulation period. In 3 1/2 years guess who will sit declaring himself the Messiah? Then the great tribulation begins for the final battle.
________________________________

Sorry dude, critical thinker here.

“All thinking men are atheists.”
― Ernest Hemingway,

#226 Joe Bloggs on 01.07.19 at 3:46 pm

#153 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.07.19 at 2:28 am

LOL!!!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hungarian_border_barrier

Now, who is an idiot here?

#227 gattaca on 01.07.19 at 3:47 pm

You linked to the “Net Right Daily.” And you tell us CNN is biased. Hilarious. – Garth
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Show me that the story is false then. That should be easy to do.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

There were about 10 other reasons why Trump sued that was of more importance to Trump (#1 meaning money and #2 being seeking revenge) then trying to overturn Palm Beach rules about who can join private clubs.

#228 Ustabe on 01.07.19 at 3:49 pm

Here is a little thing I like to indulge in:

When I read a post that is markedly out there, wildly above or below the norm, I often copy the entire thing and paste it into Google.

Not always but often it leads you to where the poster gets his or her marching orders. Sort of like Trump repeating Kremlin propaganda on Syria verbatim, it can lead you to some surprising places.

Some places you are going to want to wear your rubber boots…just saying.

#229 Marco on 01.07.19 at 4:10 pm

Sir Turner

If you think that things will change when Trump stop to be president, you a sadly mistaken. Trump is just entertainment but resistance to brutalism of so called globalisation will grow. Because you are so clever and you have a soul (that pic of your old dog looking to sunset, proves that), just point the benefits of globalisation in some of your blogs in the future, if you have some spare time of course. Because with no much argument this lynching of Trump is just primitive and unfiltered hate and is actually good picture of so called elitist (plain killers and murderers like Clintons, Bushes, Blairs, Tachers, Sarkosys and so on….)

#230 espressobob on 01.07.19 at 4:29 pm

Mr. Market has a mind of its own. Too bad if the portfolio is in distress. Might be more downside to come. How’s that for a mindset?

This is by far the toughest hurdle any DIY investor will ever deal with. Bull markets don’t last and volatility usually pushes many over the edge leaving one in a world of capitulation. They sell at the worst possible moment.

This scenario never gets old. Buying opportunities never cross their minds. Buying into quality indices during periods of uncertainty feels like catching a falling knife while starring into the abyss.

The right decisions are what separates successful DIY investors from those that should probably hire a professional advisor.

#231 OZ on 01.07.19 at 4:34 pm

So my fear Garth is that with all this negativity in the comments section you’ll decide to retire the blog and we would be deprived of such valuable and life changing advice. Could we just agree to remove the comment section until this world comes to its senses again? Seems like a win win for those who are here for the right reasons and you don’t have to post about negative comments every few days/weeks..

#232 LivinLarge on 01.07.19 at 4:44 pm

“Show me that the story is false then. That should be easy to do.”…why should it be easy and why should Fearless Leader take the time to educated you?

It’s not like the ultra Right are unskilled writers incapable of skewing facts with inudendo and plain obfuscation. There some sort of philosophical rule that you can’t “prove” a negative or that something never ever happened. Bending facts is just too easy especially when authors start with a bias they want to promote.

#233 greyhound on 01.07.19 at 5:20 pm

228 posts so far today! Is that a record?

Not even close. – Garth

#234 Rural Rick on 01.07.19 at 8:45 pm

I love reading the comments it brings to mind quotes from two of my favourite entertainers.
“Better to be thought a fool than to open your mouth and remove all doubt.”
S. Clemens
“Think of how dumb the average guy is. Half of them are dumber than that.”
G. Carlin
Thanks for the entertainment and instruction. Most fun class in economics every. You rock professor Turner.

#235 DON on 01.07.19 at 9:16 pm

#26 Dolce Vita on 01.06.19 at 5:51 pm

Like I said yesterday, Ryan’s analysis is logical and cogent.

The American Consumer decides when there is a recession and not Mr. Market. They just spent record amounts at Christmas. Fatter profits means stock gains and dividends…a good thing for America and investments there.
**************

There is the possibility that the American/Canadian consumer was using their credit cards and recent gains from the housing uptick in both countries. I want it now and Christmas are powerful events.

I agree – there is something lurking in the system that is not good.

We can’t raise rates anymore as the system won’t take the load. But things are great? and economies are humming along? People thought the dudes from The Big Short were crazy until it happened.

Economists are questioning China’s GDP of 6.5%. Graduate students in China who received job offers at top companies in December were informed a week later they had been laid off. If the only thing hampering China is a temporary US Trade War, why is China having so many internal credit problems. Or could this be a long time in the works?

In Australia, housing is faltering and the economy is humming, and they have yet to raise interest rates, same seems to be going on in Hong Kong.

Maybe just maybe the average person got priced out of the average house and 2.5% on $700K – $1Mil is quite a different story than 2.5% on 200K – 500K.

Now for real estate it is about psychology, more and more stories about people holding back on buying and that action can and usually does cascade. Now that deceleration has been proven and witnessed by those with leveraged skin in the game human nature piles in on the downside.

The stock market is scared of something, maybe it is finally too hard to ignore. Not be a doomer just gauging the state of affairs.

#236 Doug in London on 01.08.19 at 11:16 am

Will someone PLEASE tell me what’s going on here? I read all these posts here about how the stock markets will keep going down, down, down below where they were on Christmas Eve (when Boxing Day came 2 days early) and yet every time I check my investments they keep going up, up, up, up, and up. I’m completely, totally, and entirely baffled, puzzled, and flummoxed trying to figure out what’s been going on lately.

#237 Doug in London on 01.10.19 at 2:59 pm

Still no answers? Maybe everyone else here is just as baffled, puzzled, and flummoxed as I am.