Outlook

RYAN By Guest Blogger Ryan Lewenza

Who’s with me when I say that I’m happy to close the books on 2018 and looking forward to 2019? 2018 was a total stinker of a year for investment returns. The S&P 500 essentially endured a stealth bear market in Q4, having declined nearly 20% peak-to-trough. The TSX and international markets also sucked wind, but I think the weakness in 2018 could be setting us up for a decent 2019. Let me explain.

As covered in recent blog posts I attribute last year’s volatility to the Fed continuing to hike interest rates, Trump’s trade war with China and his impulsive actions in Q4 (e.g., attacks on Fed Chairman Powell, the rash decision to withdraw from Syria leading to the resignation of his Defense Secretary, and his bonehead move to shut down the US government over his wall funding that’s never coming), and concerns over a slowdown in the US/global economy. Critically, I see some of these headwinds reversing in 2019.

After hiking rates four times last year the Fed is likely to slow the pace of further rate hikes in 2019. Inflation remains well contained and economic growth should slow this year supporting a less aggressive monetary approach. As such, the Fed is expected to hike rates only 1-2 times this year, which we believe is the correct path.

On the US trade front, currently US and Chinese trade negotiators are trying to hash out a new trade deal, which would see China buy more US goods and address US concerns over China’s unfair business practices (e.g, intellectual property theft, and forced technology transfer for US companies doing business in China). I think it’s going to be a bumpy ride with occasional setbacks but I am hopeful that a deal will be consummated this year.

One key reason why I’m optimistic about a positive outcome is that Trump is obsessed with the stock market (and Fox News) and views it as a barometer of his presidential success. He’s starting to realize that his tough approach on China is weighing on the stock market and I believe this will drive him to finalize a trade deal with China. As he said this week, the December market decline was a “glitch” and “it’s going to go up once we settle trade issues.”

So, from my perspective the two biggest headwinds in 2018 could turn to tailwinds for 2019.

Next up is the economic outlook, which we remain optimistic on heading into the New Year. The equity markets acted as if we were on the precipice of a global recession in Q4, and we just don’t see it for 2019. Sure the US economy is likely to slow from the roughly 3% growth seen in 2018, as the fiscal stimulus (tax cuts and increased government spending) rolls off, but we see the US economy still growing at a decent 2-2.5% in 2019. As seen below, China is expected to slow from 6.5% to 6.2%, and the overall global economy is expected to slow from 3.7% to 3.5% this year, based on consensus estimates. Does this sound like a major contraction/recession in the global economy?

Forecasted GDP Growth Rates for 2019

Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments

This is critically important since most bear markets are brought on by a US/global recession, which is not in the cards for 2019.

Against this economic backdrop the outlook for corporate earnings remains encouraging. US, Canada, and global earnings are expected to grow by single-digits this year. Sure this is a noticeable deceleration from 2018, when US earnings grew at over 20%, but positive earnings growth is still very supportive to stock prices heading into 2019.

Earnings Outlook Remains Positive

Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments

Lastly, for the first time in some years stock valuations are looking attractive. As seen below the US markets now trade at 16x earnings (down from 20x last January), which is in-line with their long-term average. Canadian and international stocks are outright cheap trading at roughly 13x. In fact, Canadian stocks are trading at near their lowest levels in history relative to US stocks. Given these cheaper valuations and similar earnings growth rates to US stocks, we see international stocks outperforming US stocks in 2019.

Equity Valuations Are Attractive

Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments

To recap, I see very low odds of a recession, decent earnings growth and attractive valuations – not a bad fundamental backdrop for 2019.

What could go wrong? In a word…Trump.

I see two major Trump risks for 2019. First, is the ongoing trade deal with China. He could, on a dime, change his view and listen more to his trade hawks (Peter Navarro and Robert Lighthizer) and decide to scuttle the trade deal and follow through with his threats to increase tariffs on Chinese exports. Second, is a potentially damaging report from Mueller leading to the Dems initiating impeachment proceedings. I hope this doesn’t occur as this would be negative for the stock market in the short-term, and that’s what elections are for. If they want him out, leave it to the voters in 2020.

As we saw this week, following the disappointing revenue guidance from Apple, equity markets are likely to remain volatile this year. However, when all is said in done, I believe markets will post stronger results in 2019 as investors realize the global economy is not falling off a cliff and the major headwinds in 2018 (Fed rate hikes and Trump’s trade war) will turn out to be important tailwinds for the markets in 2019.

Ryan Lewenza, CFA, CMT is a Partner and Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments, and a Senior Vice President, Private Client Group, of Raymond James Ltd.

 

137 comments ↓

#1 TurnerNation on 01.05.19 at 2:26 pm

Hello fellow Townies, Workies, and Woke Normies.

Over Xmas I posted here my take of a January rally fed by EMs.

I follow China, India, Russia, India ETFs.

And here’s how they are shaping up. A nice turn after Santa visited

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FXI&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p2586992567c

#2 Drill Baby Drill on 01.05.19 at 2:36 pm

The take away from today’s article is that Trump is the 2019 economic trump card.

#3 Exilled on 01.05.19 at 2:43 pm

Ryan, I have a very bad feeling about this year coming up!

#4 dakkie on 01.05.19 at 2:48 pm

Real Estate SLOWDOWN in U.S. and Canada! This is the END of the Housing Boom.

https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/real-estate-slowdown-in-u-s-and-canada-this-is-the-end-of-the-housing-boom/

#5 Smartalox on 01.05.19 at 2:52 pm

The Democrat-controlled Congress is getting ready for a Trump slow-burn:

Expect the next few years to be all about revealing Trump’s corruption, so that come election 2020, Trump won’t run, or will have the greatest electoral defeat in history.

#6 NJGeezer on 01.05.19 at 3:04 pm

Ryan please,
Don’t tell us you believe the Chinese published statistics?
Perpetually greater than 6 percent. Not likely.

Those numbers are totally goal-sought, and most everybody knows it. China is an economic house of cards.

#7 Stan Brooks on 01.05.19 at 3:30 pm

TSX is a very bad example of an ‘international market’.

It most likely will severely under-perform US and international markets. For example: On Friday Europe, US, VWO – international stocks were up over 3 %.
TSX was up less than half that.

P/E means very little, Brazil, Turkey and Russia have much lower P/E than ours. Plus the Turkey ETF is severely under-priced at the moment and much better candidate for investment, it is an 80 million country bordering EU that actually grows. It can easily grow 50 % in the next 2-3 years.

Our earnings reflect a top in the biggest ever credit bubble in housing that juiced the whole ‘economy’.

With international investors avoiding it and in the conditions of capital outflows, with indebted population, higher taxes, there is no way to boost it further as there is no domestic capital left for that – it is all trapped in housing.

Sure the resource sector will have its day, but the rest..
So while I agree with investment in international stocks, lets separate TSX from that, it is entirely different market and does not fit the developed countries growth models.

I am on entirely different position regarding TSX and preferred stocks and so far/in the last 10 years it seems I am right.

Europe is a value play, US is tech/lead companies play, developed markets are growth play and we are… none of that.

#8 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.05.19 at 3:36 pm

@Ryan.
Nice synopsis. It will be interesting to see how 2019 pans out.

@ #95 Trumpocalypse2019
“Only those preparing now will have a chance for security and survival in the long decades of misery ahead…”

****

And a Happy New Year to you too Mr. Positive!

#9 Not second on 01.05.19 at 3:38 pm

Ace Goodheart, you’re a moron.
I just waisted 60 seconds of my life reading your gibberish.
Stop embarrassing yourself.

#10 Stan Brooks on 01.05.19 at 3:40 pm

Sorry, I meant:

Developing markets are growth play.

#11 Ace Goodheart on 01.05.19 at 3:41 pm

Me (to colleague): So are you loading up on equities during this wonderful bear market?

Colleague: (shocked) no, I am considering getting out. This is scary. I lost $10,000.00 last month. I don’t know how much longer I can take this.

Me: Not good. Yeah I’m down about $150,000.00. But I’ve bought almost $500,000 more in the last month and will be buying more at the end of January.

Colleague: Are you crazy? I’m not buying anything, until markets start going up again.

Me: So you know that markets are going to go back up again?

Colleague: They always go back up. So I’m going to wait until they go back up, and then start buying in again.

Me: So you know markets will go back up, and you know they are very cheap right now. So you’re going to wait until things start to get expensive again, and then start buying?

I did not get an answer.

Oh well…….

#12 LivinLarge on 01.05.19 at 3:55 pm

I disagree with your optimism for 2019. Like sea sicknes won’t go away until the boat stops rocking and your feet are on solid grownd, this Q4 meltdown won stop as long as the Don is sitting in the big chair behind the resolute desk.

Even a donut could predict the results of the Don’s deliberate craziness and unless he somehow becomes sane then we’re in for more stuff from the same pile.

The Don doesn’t understand global financial markets, he understands how to BS and build condos.

Take yesterday’s bizzare claim that the replacement treaty for NAFTA will generate revenue to pay for his obsession for a wall.

Where does a free trade agreement generate new revenue for the federal government? If anything it reduces revenues from any tariffs or surcharges.

The Don is a narcissist with no experience in financial markets beyond the $US/Rubble spread.

#13 not 1st on 01.05.19 at 4:05 pm

You are worrying about the wrong T. T as in Trump will be just fine. he is not going to back down to the Chinese but he will get a deal from them. And if the first days of the congress are any indication, the leftist whackos have invaded and perfect to see them in action. They look more whacko by the day. Trump looks sane in comparison.

Mueller report extended for 6 more months. Boy for a guy whos got the smoking gun he sure needs a lot of time. The Kennedy assassination was investigated in under a year. Here Mueller is going on 2+ yrs. Conclusion big nothing burger. Sins, not crimes and if we held every politician to that standard nobody would be elected.

Now the other T as in Trudeau is the big unknown. Canada sits on the verge of becoming a socialist hellhole in 2019 and no energy industry. That’s your risk right there. Calculate Canadas GDP without an oil industry or the province of Alberta in confederation. Add in a $100B plus intergenerational debt along with a carbon tax drag. Factor that in and see how rosy it all looks.

#14 AK on 01.05.19 at 4:11 pm

“Second, is a potentially damaging report from Mueller leading to the Dems initiating impeachment proceedings. ”
=====================================
The Dems continue to look useless and stupid. So therefore, they will hand over another 4 year term to president Trump.

#15 slick on 01.05.19 at 4:26 pm

ryan;
I consider 2018 to be a good one for several reasons.

the main one is I am sitting on a fair percentage of cash to invest, and will add to it in the first few months of 2019.

IF the US economy grew 3%+ in 2018, there should be 3%+ more money looking for a home. More if the tax breaks add to it. There is alot of money sloshing around.

The s&P now has 20% upside before it hits real resistance. We have seen how high it can go. Anyone with cash to invest has been given a gift.

I know 50 % of the people don’t like trump and his tactics, but how can you argue against border security, chinese IT thefts, trade distortions, high tax rates, troops out of Syria, pounding ISIS and Taliban, and Mueller finding more dirt on Hillary than Trump [who did not even hold office when these accusations allegedly happened]. Trump doesn’t give a flying fart whether he gets back in. but the die has been cast, and it will be hard to justify a 180 on all these changes.

Trump will easily survive into and through the next election. I dont think the Dems will impeach. Less than 2 years to the next election, this billionaire will delay and deflect if need be. I ‘m not sure the Dems want to lose a mudslinging contest before the election.

I admit to being a bit of option bug, and have been selling puts for the past few weeks. Canada’s biggest problem is our election in October. I hope we aren’t stupid enough to repeat our last mistake.

slick

#16 Im stupid on 01.05.19 at 4:37 pm

Hi Ryan

I don’t know if I should agree or disagree with your opinion regarding a trade deal between China and the US. Here’s why; Trump will be president for another year or maxim 5 years if he wins the next election. Xi will be president for life so he doesn’t need to rush into a bad deal. He can wait one year then decide what deal to do (depending on the US election results). If he thinks he can get a better deal once Trump is out what incentive does he have to make a deal?

#17 Long-Time Lurker on 01.05.19 at 4:41 pm

On the Red China theme: The Red Chinese war rhetoric is heating up. I hope they suffer another Communist government collapse like the U.S.S.R. before Trump is out of office.

>Speaking of Communists (and Socialists):

>The rich kid of Communism: Duping the proletariat for fun and profit.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6558991/Rich-kids-COMMUNISM-Fidel-Castros-model-grandson-flashes-wealth-European-vacations.html

Rich kid of Communism: Fidel Castro’s model grandson flashes his wealth and love of the high life on Instagram as he travels the world

By ADRY TORRES FOR DAILYMAIL.COM
PUBLISHED: 22:21 EST, 4 January 2019 | UPDATED: 10:52 EST, 5 January 2019

Tony Castro flashed his family’s wealth with a bevy of photos on social media South Florida-based media outlets covering the Cuban community revealed the images this week before the island’s 60th anniversary of the Cuban Revolution.

On an island where bread, eggs and other basic foods have become scarce – an issue the current regime blames on the United States government imposed embargo – Tony Castro showed off his taste for fine liquors and foods during an uncle’s birthday celebration.

The young man shared a photo during a night out in Havana after having a meal with his mother Lissete Ulloa, and a photograph of himself behind the wheels of a BMW….

>Socialist suckers.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/southamerica/venezuela/9993238/Venezuela-the-wealth-of-Chavez-family-exposed.html

Venezuela: the wealth of Chavez family exposed

As Venezuela holds its first election following the death of Hugo Chavez, activists accuse the former president’s family of amassing huge personal wealth at the nation’s expense.

By Alasdair Baverstock, Barinas and Peter Foster in Caracas 6:53PM BST 14 Apr 2013

…His campaign to highlight how the Chavez clan has enriched itself has plenty of sympathisers in Barinas, a poor town which sits humid agricultural plains 300 miles southwest of Caracas in one of Venezuela’s regions.

Here the late-president’s family owns 17 country estates, totalling more than 100,000 acres, in addition to liquid assets of $550 million (£360 million) stored in various international bank accounts, according to Venezuelan news website Noticias Centro….

…”Barinas is the worst state in Venezuela, and it’s the fault of the Chavez family”, said José Vitriago, a 56-year-old street kiosk vendor who voted for Chavez in all three of his presidential campaigns.

“It’s pure corruption, and Hugo Chavez allowed it all happen.

“They take the money that’s intended to help the people, and they put it in their own pockets.

They’re buying country estates and apartments in the United States while we have nothing”.

#18 Long-Time Lurker on 01.05.19 at 4:45 pm

Interesting article, Ryan, but you’re competing with yesterday’s comments of Dolce Vita’s Mormon Magic Underwear and Smoking Man’s Slapped Ham video. Do you realize what you’re up against?

#19 Why War on 01.05.19 at 4:46 pm

It seems very novice for anyone that considers negotiating trade as war, always. China has eaten the breakfast, lunch, dinner, recipe book and grocery store for many years. Trump is the only one bold enough and business savvy enough to go in and renegotiate things. It’s not war, it’s business. 100% for the Trump platform, including fixing their immigration problems and creating jobs.

Alternative: Reroute all Mexicans hopping the wall to Trudeau’s front door step, we pay more of Germany’s Nato share, we reduce national security, we reduce jobs in our country, and create a massive trade imbalance to our own disadvantage. Makes no sense.

Forget the US, they have their shit together. CNN may call it war, rape, misogyny, racism and every other card they can, but it’s business. They need to drain their swamp of mother duckers – yes, the Dems which focus all their time fighting for Trump impeachment.

Let’s get Canadian growth going. And I’m not referring to pot. We can’t all sit around with Elon smoking it. Even he knows that it’s called “stoned” for a good reason.

#20 Samuel on 01.05.19 at 4:49 pm

CPTPP and the Trump-China trade deal will ensure growth for years to come. This 20% correction essentially reset the markets, and prepared us for the next leg up. Low inflation and huge job numbers in the US will keep a floor on the stock market, especially now with the fed supporting the growth. 2019 could be a banner year.

#21 Trick Pony on 01.05.19 at 5:04 pm

Apple’s growth was bound to fizzle out. Even a monkey could have predicted that. You can’t run a tech business with an accountant at the helm. Nor do people need to change their phone every two years simply just to use the same features, telephone, camera, etc. Most people don’t even know how to use the fringe features phones are sold on.

Google and Facebook are also on thin ice with most of their revenue/earnings from very fickle click bait style advertising. Tesla is also so yesteryear. In fact, you are seen as a bit of a prat if you are driving one these days with more money than sense.

Microsoft on the other hand has a very diverse portfolio of very successful products. All the silly bashing of Microsoft for many years was just that, plain silly. If I’m not mistaken, they are the largest company by market cap at the moment. Funny how that works.

#22 Penny Henny on 01.05.19 at 5:10 pm

#11 Ace Goodheart on 01.05.19 at 3:41 pm
Me (to colleague): So are you loading up on equities during this wonderful bear market?

Colleague: (shocked) no, I am considering getting out. This is scary. I lost $10,000.00 last month. I don’t know how much longer I can take this.

Me: Not good. Yeah I’m down about $150,000.00. But I’ve bought almost $500,000 more in the last month and will be buying more at the end of January.

Colleague: Are you crazy? I’m not buying anything, until markets start going up again.

Me: So you know that markets are going to go back up again?

Colleague: They always go back up. So I’m going to wait until they go back up, and then start buying in again.

Me: So you know markets will go back up, and you know they are very cheap right now. So you’re going to wait until things start to get expensive again, and then start buying?

I did not get an answer.

Oh well…….

///////////////////

Oh Ace you are my hero! (sarc off)

Moron

//////////////////

#9 Not second on 01.05.19 at 3:38 pm
Ace Goodheart, you’re a moron.
I just waisted 60 seconds of my life reading your gibberish.
Stop embarrassing yourself.

I’ll second the motion.

#23 Nothing To Fear on 01.05.19 at 5:11 pm

We have T2 along with his shipmates, that will turn the ship around, into a great prosperous 2019 for us all. We will have blue birds singing a song and nothing but blue skies all day long. What could possibly go wrong?

#24 Im Therious on 01.05.19 at 5:11 pm

Having read this article, I went back to read Ryan’s old articles from the end of 2017/early 2018.

There was no prediction of the 20% drop in the S&P, but just urging cautiousness and being optimistic that the stock market would grow further yet…

This underscores the everyone’s inability to predict markets, but also also how technical analysis has limits in the face of externalities like president Dumpster-Fire.

#25 Ryan Lewenza on 01.05.19 at 5:16 pm

I’m stupid “Hi Ryan. I don’t know if I should agree or disagree with your opinion regarding a trade deal between China and the US. Here’s why; Trump will be president for another year or maxim 5 years if he wins the next election. Xi will be president for life so he doesn’t need to rush into a bad deal. He can wait one year then decide what deal to do (depending on the US election results). If he thinks he can get a better deal once Trump is out what incentive does he have to make a deal?

Xi’s incentive is his slowing economy in part due to this trade war. While exports play a smaller role than they use to for China’s economy, they still remain an important driver and therefore it’s in his/China’s best interest to work out an amicable deal. This is the key. Both economies lose if this keeps up so it’s in everyone’s best interest to be grown ups and come to an agreement. – Ryan L

#26 Eddie on 01.05.19 at 5:43 pm

Look at the volumes on the DOW, the recent drops saw increases in volume, gained more sellers each day. When we get a little bounce the volume is weak and buyers run out of steam. The sellers will take over and it will go to a new lower low.We’ll see a major crash 2019 into the early 2020s. It’s Great Reset Cycle every 90 years.

#27 Al on 01.05.19 at 5:50 pm

“This is critically important since most bear markets are brought on by a US/global recession, which is not in the cards for 2019.”

The thing is, it never is until it’s too late.

#28 For those about to flop... on 01.05.19 at 5:54 pm

Pink Snow falling in North Vancouver.

Just like the last guys they come back on the market at the same number because they are stuck in between a rock and a locked up market.

The details…

2493 Panorama Dr,North Vancouver.

Paid 1.47 April 2017

Originally asking 1.59

Now asking 1.32

Assessment 1.54

https://www.zolo.ca/north-vancouver-real-estate/2493-panorama-drive

Just to show you what they are up against, a house nearby that appears to be a superior structure just sold for 1.36,after originally asking 1.63

The assessment of this recent sold is 1.87.

Decent area,steps from the water.

You know the tap has been turned off when no one is excited to buy some semi-waterfront property for under 1.3 million.

Pointer Sisters aren’t even excited anymore…

M44BC

Questionable Pointer Sisters Video, old geezers might want to take a seat…

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=8iwBM_YB1sE

https://www.zolo.ca/north-vancouver-real-estate/2441-panorama-drive

#29 Xi on 01.05.19 at 5:54 pm

#25 Ryan Lewenza – Did you see and listen to Xi’s 40th Anniversary speech translated in English? Its an eye opener to say the least, and about 2 hours long. What we have is Hitler reborn, and you may have to reset your judgement button about this man. He is not afraid of anybody, and it will be his way with all nations on the planet earth under his rules.

#30 young & foolish on 01.05.19 at 5:56 pm

look at it this way blog dogs …. the “growth” portion of your portfolio is anybody’s guess ….

want to grow something? grow your business!

#31 Im stupid on 01.05.19 at 6:03 pm

Ryan L

I agree with you that China wants to make a deal. I think if Xi thinks a better deal can be had in a year he’ll wait.

#32 AK on 01.05.19 at 6:25 pm

“In fact, Canadian stocks are trading at near their lowest levels in history relative to US stocks.”
=====================================
Shortly, this stat will change as the market will start pricing in the demise of the Liberal Party on October 21, 2019.

#33 Colleague to Ace on 01.05.19 at 6:27 pm

#11 Ace Goodheart on 01.05.19 at 3:41 pm
Me (to colleague): So are you loading up on equities during this wonderful bear market?

Colleague: (shocked) no, I am considering getting out. This is scary. I lost $10,000.00 last month. I don’t know how much longer I can take this.

Me: Not good. Yeah I’m down about $150,000.00. But I’ve bought almost $500,000 more in the last month and will be buying more at the end of January.

Colleague: Are you crazy? I’m not buying anything, until markets start going up again.

Me: So you know that markets are going to go back up again?

Colleague: They always go back up. So I’m going to wait until they go back up, and then start buying in again.

Me: So you know markets will go back up, and you know they are very cheap right now. So you’re going to wait until things start to get expensive again, and then start buying?

I did not get an answer.

Oh well…….

//////////////////

Colleague- Oh god no, here comes Ace, pretend to be busy. Look at your phone, look at your phone. Oh no he saw me

Ace- So are you loading up on equities during this wonderful bear market?

Colleague- Oh yeah Ace, I’m scared, really scared (my god what a dink)

Ace- Yeah I’m down about $150,000.00. But I’ve bought almost $500,000 more in the last month and will be buying more at the end of January.

Colleague- Oh so sad too bad Ace, gotta go.

Ace- So you know that markets are going to go back up again?

Colleague- Hey Ace better get back to work before the foreman sees you screwing the pooch.

Ace-So you know markets will go back up, and you know they are very cheap right now. So you’re going to wait until things start to get expensive again, and then start buying?

Colleague- Yeah sure Ace whatever. Hey did you hear about the shooting on your street in Mount Dennis

Ace- Yeah I’m sure it is somehow connected to Trump

#34 TRUMP 2020 on 01.05.19 at 6:36 pm

If you think 2018 was a shocker wait till 2019!!

Yes – they will release money for the wall.
No – there will be not a chance of impeachment.
China & Trump – will workout a great trade deal.

As far as the stock market goes…..40-50% CRASH on the way!!!

Make sure you keep enough cash on the side to cover your margin account loses and prepare for some great buying opportunities.

And TRUMP will be in for another 4.

The people voted for a change, not for the same hammy down career politician clowns that have been flying around the world bombing millions of innocent women and children for the past 100 years.

Have they found weapons of mass destruction in IRAQ yet?

#35 VICTORIA TEA PARTY on 01.05.19 at 6:37 pm

#25 CHINA WAITS…WAITS…POUNCES

I agree with you, Ryan, that China likely looks forward to a deal soon with the Trumpians.

Xi & Co. are not stupid. They still have visions of world leadership/domintion dancing in their intelligent heads.

One way to achieve such a goal is to put China into a better power position allowing it to reclaim what has been lost, economically, in the past year.

That means putting a lid on excessive internal/external debt levels; fiddling with reserve requirement ratios to allow more flexible credit conditions for small entrepreneurs, at the same time; fill up those empty cities with people from the boonies; and, offer incentives for them to get better educated to expand the economy later on.

That can’t happen when the various Chinese stock markets are flat on their backs thanks in some part to those issues mentioned above and US trade tariffs.

In other words China lacks the credilbility it needs as its imperialist continuing “needs” remain unfulfilled.

A trade deal with Trump will be a gift to China and a possible eventual set-back to the US which now looks upon China as a monster of a geopolitical “problem”.

You will be able to figure it all out if, during the negotiations, China caves on some favoured issues.

That will be looked upon as a strategic retreat to be followed later by a solid advance economically-speaking.

Patience is a virtue in such situations.

On a related matter will that Huawei lady, holed up in her Vancouver home, be part of a trade deal between the US and China?

Or will she suddenly “show up” back home in the dead of night?

#36 Gary on 01.05.19 at 6:42 pm

After being stopped out of 75% of divy payers, in the green, have started to do some buying again.

What if there is no deal with Trump & China, it could happen, I guess that is what trailing stops are for.

Hope for a deal, and prepare for the worst, in this over inflated market

#37 reynolds531 on 01.05.19 at 6:50 pm

You can very clearly see that Canada isn’t currently willing to earn its place in the world.

Arrest some Canadians…we get our friends to complain.

Arrest some Americans…they hit back with a travel advisory.

At a minimum we should be doing the same.

#38 not 1st on 01.05.19 at 6:56 pm

China will not make any sort of significant concessions until more pain is applied. They make some vague promises about buying soy beans or whatever, but that is just window dressing. Until their economy is properly opened up and their espionage and empire expansion is curtailed, this is the way it will be for a while.

Trump just has to tilt the books a little and china collapses like a house of cards. A country with much more debt that the US has, all export economy, non-existent middle class, 400M country side peasants and never seen a recession before is an easy target.

#39 Figmund Sreud on 01.05.19 at 7:08 pm

Dems initiating impeachment proceedings. I hope this doesn’t occur…
____________________________________

It won’t. Count on it. Trump shored up his control on the Senate, midterm. This gives him much more leeway in appointing cabinet officials, Federal judges, … and impeachment doesn’t mean a thing unless 2/3 of the Senate votes to convict! Hence, Trump is safe till 2020. Rejoice, …

Best,

F.S. – Calgary, Alberta.

[ Btw, all those loud claims by Democrats to the opposite show a surprising ignorance of the basic fundamentals of U.S. constitutional law!]

#40 Stan Brooks is a Kook on 01.05.19 at 7:10 pm

#7 Stan Madman Brooks

“Plus the Turkey ETF is severely under-priced at the moment and much better candidate for investment, it is an 80 million country bordering EU that actually grows. It can easily grow 50 % in the next 2-3 years.”

Your mindlessness is continually on display. Ever been to Turkey or talked to someone from there? I have done both. A country that is entering heavy inflation from a devalued currency and led by a mindless dictator that every youth I have talked to from Turkey despises. Their currency is tanking for a reason as it continues on economic policies leading to its ruin. Try a further contraction of 50% in the next couple of years instead of growth of 50%. On the other hand, put all your money into Turkey Stanley so you can be rewarded for your stupidity. Go ahead Stanley….

#41 Ryan Lewenza on 01.05.19 at 7:13 pm

Im Therious “Having read this article, I went back to read Ryan’s old articles from the end of 2017/early 2018.

There was no prediction of the 20% drop in the S&P, but just urging cautiousness and being optimistic that the stock market would grow further yet…”

You’re correct, I didn’t predict a 20% correction in Q4 as Trump went off the rails by threatening to fire his appointed Fed Chair (never in history have we see a President do this), making a rash decision to withdraw from Syria against his defense and foreign policy advisors recommendation, and him forcing a government shutdown, all signs of more chaos from this administration. Without a doubt this significantly added to the selling pressure and the 20% pullback. You’re also correct that technical analysis does not work well during times when the most powerful man in the world becomes unhinged. But I did stress the risks to my outlook last year. Here is a paragraph from the blog post and it’s bang on with what caused the Q4 correction.

“Now it’s not all roses, and there are a number of things we are monitoring that could put this economic expansion and bull market at risk. In no particular order, we see high equity valuations, length of this economic expansion and bull market, central bank tightening, a flattening of the yield curve and political risks as factors that could disrupt this bull market. Moreover, we’ve gone the longest period in history without a 3% correction so we are due for a pullback in the coming months.”

#42 crazyfox on 01.05.19 at 7:16 pm

You said it Ryan, the problem is Trump. Maybe you’ve heard… the supreme court is hearing a case regarding a subpoena given to a foreign entity for information relating to the Muller investigation. The lower courts have ruled in favor of Muller and the foreign entity in question has challenged it all the way to the Supreme court where the case has been made and Justice Roberts is weighing the decision now. The entire legal battle has been kept private from the public, the first case of its kind to do so ever.

One can only speculate what it is, but I think it has to do with an over seas bank. Its either Deutsche bank or the bank of Cypress. If its the bank of Cypress, it involves money laundering and Wilbur Ross will be involved as well as Trump.

Its hard to speculate at this point how it will all go down, but Muller has 5 witnesses for the prosecution for a reason. Money laundering has a statute of limitation of 5 years… but high crimes and misdemeanors do not concerning impeachment. Muller will be thorough, there will be more charges coming and there will be evidence put forth that will lead to impeachment, all going down this year. If Muller is prevented from doing so, Muller’s ship will spring leaks and everything will be aired out in media and for market reaction either way with Trump, it would be worth noting what the markets did when Nixon went down in flames.

To wish for Trump to remain in power for 2 more years to lessen the possibility of market disruption if I read that right is, I believe, not only not realistic in a political or legal sense, but not realistic as a result of a continued growing danger toward U.S. national security, foreign policy and trade. Trump is a compromised president and as such, the markets themselves have been compromised with his presence. The sooner North Americans accept what need to be done, the better prepared we will all be going forward.

#43 Figmund Sreud on 01.05.19 at 7:34 pm

currently US and Chinese trade negotiators are trying to hash out a new trade deal
_________________________________

Yes. But there is much, much more serious issue at play:

“When a rising power threatens to displace a ruling one, the most likely outcome is war. Twelve of 16 cases in which this occurred in the past 500 years ended violently.”

Thucydides’s Trap

https://www.belfercenter.org/index.php/thucydides-trap/overview-thucydides-trap

Best,

F.S.

#44 Ace Goodheart on 01.05.19 at 7:41 pm

RE: #22 Penny Henny

“Oh Ace you are my hero! (sarc off)

Moron

//////////////////

#9 Not second on 01.05.19 at 3:38 pm
Ace Goodheart, you’re a moron.
I just waisted 60 seconds of my life reading your gibberish.
Stop embarrassing yourself.

I’ll second the motion.”

When I get negative comments from certain posters on here, it is kind of more like actually a compliment.

So thank you, I’ll take it as such

Cheers!

#45 DON on 01.05.19 at 7:46 pm

Someone asked a good question on another media channel.

Why is it that the US economy and equity markets cannot handle interest rates higher than 2.5%?

#46 DON on 01.05.19 at 7:55 pm

Crowded

Lots of saber rattling between China and Taiwan. Quick proxy war ending with a stalemate or another extended Korean War or just more of the same. Taiwan is said to have a decent military.

#47 Good Comment Made on 01.05.19 at 8:06 pm

#42 Figmund – Glad you mentioned this because Xi has placed his entire military on combat alert to get ready for war by reorganizing all units. Let us not forget what took place after December 1st. China detained a total of 13 Canadians and released some of them. Our Lady Foreign Minister must have had second thoughts of spewing her nonsense concerning rule of law which is non political. Who makes the final decision? The Minister of Justice under the Liberal Government.

#48 JSS on 01.05.19 at 8:16 pm

Hi Ryan,
Any predictions for TSX year end? Thank you and have a prosperous year!

#49 Ustabe on 01.05.19 at 8:36 pm

Perfectly normal for the Pentagon Chief of Staff to quit on a Saturday night, eh?

Rats/Sinking Ship

#50 Dolce Vita on 01.05.19 at 8:37 pm

I do not dispute your usual logical and cogent analysis.

But something is WRONG in the economy and is not being captured by the numbers reported by others, worse, DELIBERATELY obfuscated.

Take for example, the recent Labour Force Survey. THE JOB GAIN IS A WHITE LIE and easily proven using StatCan’s own data. WE ACTUALLY LOST JOBS.

Everybody and their Uncle quotes (as reported ad nauseum by your usual lazy ass, 2 bricks short of a full load, Cdn. MSM parrots):

+9,300 net jobs created from Nov. to Dec. 2018

That’s Seasonally Adjusted. Here is the Unadjusted number (link below, add/remove data and do some Math – if you can’t figure it out, get a job with the Cdn. MSM):

-51,800

Unadjusted Full-Time: -88,900
Unadjusted Part-Time: +37,100

So you say, which do I believe (BIG difference)?

Look at the Seasonally Adjusted “Employment by class of worker and industry”:

Employees: -37,100 (Private -17,100, Public -20,000)
Self-Employed: +46,400

Say what you will but the Unadjusted number of -51,800 is pretty close to the increase of +46,400 Self-Employed.

That is to say, a lot of JOB LOSSES reclassified as Self-Employed (probably about 5,000 or so legitimate new owners, farmers and consultants were actually created).

StatCan Self-Employed definition:

“Self-employed include working owners of an incorporated business, farm or professional practice, or working owners of an unincorporated business, farm or professional practice. The latter group also includes self-employed workers who do not own a business (such as babysitters and newspaper carriers).”

SO, WHY THE BIG DIFFERENCE?

StatCan’s Seasonally Adjusted Job Numbers courtesy of a program called ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average).

It smooths out the bumps.

In essence, StatCan DOES NOT TRUST Cdn’s to understand there is seasonality in job creation; hence, WHITE LIE TO THEM and leave them WONDERING why they are not seeing all of this BUXOM job creation around them.

They are not seeing it because it DOES NOT EXIST, in fact, IT (the jobs) ARE DISAPPEARING.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/cv.action?pid=1410028701

#51 Fish on 01.05.19 at 8:56 pm

There will be no such thing as painless national pharmacare

Major planks usually cost major dollars. Pharmacare will be no exception

Aaron Wudrick · for CBC News · Posted: Oct 07, 2018 4:00 AM ET | Last Updated: October 7, 2018

https://www.cbc.ca/news/opinion/pharmacare-report-1.4852503

#52 Ryan Lewenza on 01.05.19 at 8:58 pm

JSS “Any predictions for TSX year end? Thank you and have a prosperous year!”

It should be up this year, high single digit low double digits given this years poor performance, cheap valuations and positive earnings growth. Ryan L

#53 akashic record on 01.05.19 at 9:00 pm

#48 Ustabe on 01.05.19 at 8:36 pm

Perfectly normal for the Pentagon Chief of Staff to quit on a Saturday night, eh?

—-

Do you really think that around the world people quit, resign, get fired from top political positions between Monday-Friday 9-5? :)

In America at least you know about it, pretty close when it happens.

#54 Boomer Bill on 01.05.19 at 9:02 pm

#100 Glengarry Girl 1.4.2019

” If I were young and starting again fresh, I would have just as much of a positive attitude about my chances of being where I’m at right now, in fact, I’d have achieved it much earlier.”

In the GTA? You have to be kidding me. I have been a homeowner in Toronto for 30 years. My first home which I still own and is now a rental has appreciated over a million dollars from when I bought it. When my wife and I bought it, we were making almost half of its value in our combined salaries. We were young and just starting out. Today a young couple would have to be making about 700k in combined income to buy that home in the same salary to house value ratio that I bought it at. How many young couples make 700k in combined incomes? Do you not see a glaring difference?

#55 not 1st on 01.05.19 at 9:08 pm

Dolce, you should know that mall santas are a big part of our employment numbers. Govt loves reporting on them.

Everybody and their dog knows there are no jobs being created in Canada. Its all smoke and mirrors. Several hundred thousand jobs have been lost in the patch. Another 10,000 on pipelines. But the govt might be counting Soros funded activists as having jobs.

Even the govts infrastructure bank boondoggle didn’t create any. Trudeau and his group of geniuses found out when the govt is kneecapping industries, increasing regulation, court challenges, protests and forcing through carbon taxes and analyzing everything at the intersectionality of gender and whatever, that surprise, nobody wants to invest in Canada with that garbage going on.

#56 KLNR on 01.05.19 at 9:14 pm

@#48 Ustabe on 01.05.19 at 8:36 pm
Perfectly normal for the Pentagon Chief of Staff to quit on a Saturday night, eh?

Rats/Sinking Ship
__________________________________

the amount of people who have quit on trump is insane. has this ever happened to any other potus?

#57 akashic record on 01.05.19 at 9:16 pm

As seen below, China is expected to slow from 6.5% to 6.2%

Chinese Professor Censored After Admitting Real GDP Growth Is Below 2%

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-05/china-censors-economics-professor-who-claims-real-gdp-growth-below-2

Maybe fake censorship.

#58 Taiwan on 01.05.19 at 9:16 pm

#45 Don – Xi made it clear that Taiwan belongs to China, and hopes to negotiate with them under his terms. Otherwise, he will use force of invasion. He also made it clear weeks ago that nobody is going to tell us what to do anymore. Our pathetic Foreign Minister was not, or ever will be a politician, or anything more than an author of books.

#59 Figmund Sreud on 01.05.19 at 9:19 pm

… I see very low odds of a recession, decent earnings growth and attractive valuations – not a bad fundamental backdrop for 2019.
____________________________________

Sure, … one prediction is guaranteed to come true, however:

“The Superior Group” continues to carry a lot of clout, still, … and will doubtlessly – as every prior year – try everything they can imagine and concoct to shove the economic pain – or whatever – onto somebody else.

In fact, very soon, they are meeting once again! It’s true, …

World Economic Forum Annual Meeting

22—25 January 2019
Davos-Klosters, Switzerland

https://www.weforum.org/events/world-economic-forum-annual-meeting

F.S.

#60 Fish on 01.05.19 at 9:28 pm

5 pharmacare questions and answers

Where Canada is when it comes to universal drug coverage
CBC News · Posted: Feb 27, 2018 4:46 PM ET | Last Updated: August 22, 2018

https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/pharmacare-faq-1.4554270

#61 young & foolish on 01.05.19 at 9:29 pm

“But something is WRONG in the economy and is not being captured by the numbers reported by others, worse, DELIBERATELY obfuscated.” — Dolce Vita

The full employment model is slowly being phased out in favour of the private contract. Not only here.

#62 Figmund Sreud on 01.05.19 at 9:30 pm

#46 Good Comment Made – Glad you mentioned this because Xi…
_____________

… more on Xi:

Chinese scholar offers insight into Beijing’s strategic mindset

http://www.atimes.com/article/chinese-scholar-offers-insight-into-beijings-strategic-mindset/

Cheers,

F.S.

#63 Capt. Serious on 01.05.19 at 9:52 pm

Keep calm and carry on. Your portfolio does best when you don’t look at it very often.

20% drops in equity prices are a feature, not a bug. You do not get higher returns without higher risk.

#64 Ustabe on 01.05.19 at 10:10 pm

akashic record on 01.05.19 at 9:00 pm

#48 Ustabe on 01.05.19 at 8:36 pm

Perfectly normal for the Pentagon Chief of Staff to quit on a Saturday night, eh?
—-
Do you really think that around the world people quit, resign, get fired from top political positions between Monday-Friday 9-5? :)

In America at least you know about it, pretty close when it happens.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Another line of thought is he was given an unconstitutional task and being a military man he did the only thing available to him other than directly confronting the commander in chief. The people I read seem to favor this interpretation rather than yours.

Time will tell, meanwhile we all get to watch.

#65 not 1st on 01.05.19 at 10:10 pm

#55 KLNR on 01.05.19 at 9:14 pm

the amount of people who have quit on trump is insane. has this ever happened to any other potus?

__________________________________

Nope probably not, then again no POTUS has ever had as ambitious agenda as Trump does. People quitting just don’t like changes in the swamp because they have been at the trough so long.

#66 Renter's Revenge! on 01.05.19 at 10:31 pm

#43 Ace Goodheart on 01.05.19 at 7:41 pm
RE: #22 Penny Henny
“Oh Ace you are my hero! (sarc off)
Moron
//////////////////
#9 Not second on 01.05.19 at 3:38 pm
Ace Goodheart, you’re a moron.
I just waisted 60 seconds of my life reading your gibberish.
Stop embarrassing yourself.
I’ll second the motion.”
When I get negative comments from certain posters on here, it is kind of more like actually a compliment.
So thank you, I’ll take it as such
Cheers!

===========================

If you take being called a moron as a compliment, it must mean you’re either an idiot or an imbecile.

https://bookofthrees.com/iq-test-3-levels-of-stupidity/

Thanks for coming out, Ace :)

#67 Figure it Out on 01.05.19 at 10:35 pm

Put yourself in Xi’s shoes.

Your economy was already decelerating before the Trump trade war. Working age population has been shrinking for a few years already. Real estate is a great big bubble, there’s tons of business loans made to companies which can’t make the payments from cash flow, and the quid pro quo keeping the locals from revolting is “wages go up, asset prices don’t fall, and we won’t ask about politics.”

If the economy keeps cratering, you’re screwed with a capital F. How to distract the locals? Well… Taiwan. Trump currently has no permanent SECDEF, his chief of staff is brand new, his government is shut down, and so frigging dysfunctional that when I google the Pentagon Chief of Staff who just quit, I get a .mil web page that claims Mattis is still SECDEF.

Bone Spurs Trump has expressed the opinion that foreign wars aren’t good for him, or for current US troops. He doesn’t seem too allergic to dictators.

You’re Xi. Does this look like the best time in fifty years, and probably for the next fifty, to take Taiwan?

N.B. As fun as predicting stuff is, I’ve found that the world can generally be divided into two camps: People who are always predicting a recession next year, and people who never are. The Nevers have percentages on their side, all else being equal, but still aren’t much use.

#68 Renter's Revenge! on 01.05.19 at 10:37 pm

#26 Eddie on 01.05.19 at 5:43 pm
Look at the volumes on the DOW, the recent drops saw increases in volume, gained more sellers each day. When we get a little bounce the volume is weak and buyers run out of steam. The sellers will take over and it will go to a new lower low.We’ll see a major crash 2019 into the early 2020s. It’s Great Reset Cycle every 90 years.

===============================

If the smart money has more money than the dumb money, and the smart money buys on days that the market is down, and the dumb money buys on days that the market is up, then it seems perfectly normal for the volume to be higher on days that the market is down than when it is up.

#69 Stan Brooks on 01.05.19 at 10:37 pm

#39 Stan Brooks is a Kook on 01.05.19 at 7:10 pm

on Turkey:
Then go ahead and short it, if you expect 50 % decline in their stock market. Pretty good potential return return, Eh?
The economy is pretty robust, the more their currency goes down, the more they export.

If you think that our policy is different than making currency cheaper in order to export, then you are mistaken.

Plus they have very little debt. So we will see in long term whose stock markets will perform better.

Of course I was giving it as an example of severely under-priced markets.

Another example few years back were Russian ETFs that rebounded nice, same was with Spanish stocks several years ago.

We are not under-priced contrary to the popular beliefs and popular culture as our calculations, including historical P/E valuations do not include debt and how much of the corporate profits are driven by it.

#70 Stan Brooks on 01.05.19 at 10:52 pm

#59 Fish on 01.05.19 at 9:28 pm
5 pharmacare questions and answers

Where Canada is when it comes to universal drug coverage
CBC News · Posted: Feb 27, 2018 4:46 PM ET | Last Updated: August 22, 2018

https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/pharmacare-faq-1.4554270

It sounds like a great idea. Put the burden of drugs coverage for poor Canadians on the shoulders of the constantly shrinking and struggling middle class through more taxes and then beat it to death in order to ‘deliver’: higher bank profits, higher corporate profits, more expensive housing, more expensive utilities and food, services at the same time when their disposable income is shrinking.

Then add even more debt and more taxes.

We will see when it all breaks. It is overdue for like 10 years.

#71 technical analysis?? on 01.05.19 at 10:53 pm

This underscores the everyone’s inability to predict markets, but also also how technical analysis has limits in the face of externalities like president Dumpster-Fire.
________________________________________

i’m sick and tired of reading this garbage.

technical analysis works perfectly well if you are any good at it.

1. double top 2018, Jan and October peaks
2. divergent weekly and monthly momentum
3. a breach of the uptrend line from 2016 lows week of Oct 12
4. breach of 200 day moving average same week.

what else can you ask for? a headline? market about to collapse?

stop reading the news. stop wasting your time with P/E ratios and earnings. stop watching CNBC and BNN. stop wasting your time reading newsletters and making predictions. it’s all useless.

you only need a chart, and some basic rules

#72 Penny Henny on 01.05.19 at 11:00 pm

Mr. Lewenza

Has there been a year in which your had predicted the TSX to go down in a year? Correct or not?

Hey Garth, my ‘Colleague of Ace’ comment was awesome. Why the unlove :(

#73 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.05.19 at 11:13 pm

Minimum wage of US$ 15 is taking hold in the USA.
about time
Warum McDonald’s und Amazon plötzlich 15 Dollar pro Stunde zahlen
In den USA erhöhen immer mehr Staaten die Mindestlöhne. In New York erhalten Fast-Food-Mitarbeiter seit 1. Januar 15 Dollar pro Stunde. Amazon zahlt das sogar landesweit. Was ist los im Kernland des Kapitalismus?

#74 Long-Time Lurker on 01.05.19 at 11:27 pm

Steve Saretsky on the Vancouver Condo market.

https://vancitycondoguide.com/vancouver-condo-sales-in-december-drop-to-10-year-low/

#75 NoName on 01.05.19 at 11:28 pm

#61 Figmund Sreud on 01.05.19 at 9:30 pm
#46 Good Comment Made – Glad you mentioned this because Xi…
_____________

… more on Xi:

Chinese scholar offers insight into Beijing’s strategic mindset

http://www.atimes.com/article/chinese-scholar-offers-insight-into-beijings-strategic-mindset/

Cheers,

F.S.

Looks like 80s are repiting it self.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=9&v=nL0pNvo-BKw

#76 Nonplused on 01.06.19 at 12:25 am

Ryan, I rarely have reason to comment on your posts because they are well, pretty hard to argue with. But now and then you pull a “Garth”.

The wall needs to be and should be funded. It is the right thing to do and $5 billion in a $1 trillion budget is nothing.

Here’s why it needs to be funded: Because it is in line with a long period of law and tradition.

Ryan, given the circles you run in, I am sure you have flown to the US more times than I have. Did you not notice that the US already has a wall in Canada in the form of the US customs agents who are living in our own land and vetting people in our own airports? Why do you have to get vetted before you can even go on the plane but people from Honduras can just walk right in?

Border security is one of the few things the government must do.

I can’t even drive my boat over the boarder on a lake that spans the US border or there are US customs officials on boats who will make sure I have the proper paperwork (a Nexus card is good). I have to respect US law. Once I drove down but I didn’t say “oh there is a line up at customs, let’s put her in 4×4 and just go around”. That would be nuts. Why are we supposedly right thinking Canadians thinking that we should have to go through US customs to gain entry but people from Honduras should just be able to walk right in?

The craziness has gotten so bad the Pelosi is saying that walls are immoral but try and get on her property. She has walls. And security guards. And cameras.

The wall is the moral and right thing to do. If it isn’t, they should stop wasting so much money on our US terminals and customs in our airports. Why are they worrying about us from the north more than those from the south? Why can’t we Canadians just walk or drive or fly or boat in whenever we like without being interviewed?

Why? Because the criminals will go around boarder security if they can. The US has a problem with this, and if the wall will help, they have every right to build it. And it won’t be a wall for the most part it will mostly be a fence with security cameras. But anyway those details are unimportant. The important fact of the matter is the US has the right to screen visitors from the south every bit as much as they do you when you go through airport security. And they are more worried about what’s coming up from the south than they are about you. As they should be.

The wall (or fence, or wall here and fence there) will be built, or the government shutdown will last through the 2020 elections and then Trump will win by another landslide. Most people in the US support some sort of additional security on the southern boarder. They will vote to get it. Even Mexicans are campaigning now for their own wall on there own southern boarder after experiencing the joys of hosting the “caravan”.

Folks, we have to stop being stupid about this. If law abiding persons have to go through customs and immigration to gain entry into a country, then everybody does. Otherwise the law is useless, and abiding by the law is useless.

Scott Adams (yes Dilbert) raised a good point. If the “wall” is immoral, shouldn’t the existing structures and border patrol and customs be removed?

Pelosi is likely senile. She says things that cannot be thought through.

#77 Balmuto on 01.06.19 at 12:27 am

“The Don doesn’t understand global financial markets, he understands how to BS and build condos.

Take yesterday’s bizzare claim that the replacement treaty for NAFTA will generate revenue to pay for his obsession for a wall.”

He’s a joke. Unfortunately he has a lot of joke followers. I just think about the last 2 years and wonder, “Isn’t there something better we could have done with our time than arguing about this clown?”

#78 TurnerNation on 01.06.19 at 12:32 am

Honest realtor. Do tell! Yours for almost a million bucks.

“Attention Builders/Contractors/Investors! Not For The Faint Of Heart! ”

https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/20005253/3-bedroom-single-family-row-townhouse-40-tecumseth-st-toronto-niagara

#79 Deplorable Dude on 01.06.19 at 12:33 am

#41 Crazyfox…..”One can only speculate what it is,it involves money laundering and Wilbur Ross will be involved as well as Trump.”

You wish…..

It’s probably something to do with some guy you’ve never heard of…..Mark Lambert….

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2018/12/24/chief-justice-john-roberts-issues-administrative-stay-in-mysterious-mueller-related-case/

#80 Smoking Man on 01.06.19 at 12:34 am

The machine is getting nastier.

You will be forced to chose soon.

Are you a Canadian or a Globalist? Answer wrong and face dire consequences.

I’m going to with the safe answer.

Ask me again when I’m sober.

For dogs that read my fiction book. Look how it called out the censorship happening today on the internet. Got gems of accurate calls in there. Published one day before Trump won.

Garth give the dogs the link you bugger.

I know it’s has a lot of sexual innuendo. But its 2019. Population has been dumb down, you got to give them something to keep their interests up.

The message in my book. Stop hording it. Share it.

Just look at France right now.. Just saying…

#81 Deplorable Dude on 01.06.19 at 1:07 am

Especially for #Crazyfox…

Arctic sea ice coverage as of today…….note the 1981 mean line….

ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/north/daily/images/2019/01_Jan/N_20190103_extn_v3.0.png

Hmmm I thought Al Gore said the Arctic was gonna be ice free back in 2014?

#82 Dyslexic Smoking Man on 01.06.19 at 1:11 am

Outlook.

Don’t be frightened, when you break things down you are all three things. Protons, electrons, and atoms.

They react to other clusters of Atoms, Protons, and electrons.

Your destiny is an orbit of little things. Enjoy life. vegas as many times as you can.

Your death day can’t be changed. Enjoy every day of your life and fear nothing.

Be free, never be owned.

It’s how I roll dice.

#83 Smoking Man on 01.06.19 at 1:25 am

Feer nothing, live.

#84 George Eastern on 01.06.19 at 1:37 am

Trump Derangement Syndrome has definatlety found a home in this blog. In spite of a successful presidency the Trump Hate Media and sycophant bootlickers still hides Obama action figures in purses and briefcases wailing at everything under the sun. The media is so 2016. My advice, chill. The media is all flap no sack. People who regurgitate media talking points only do so because they have no mind of their own.

Putting the boots to the EU, China etc over trade deficits is great for North America, not just America. China is not the global leader you want, ask the millions of Chinese who flee every year. You want 100% taxation? Go right ahead and move to the deficit cheating EU. When American security and subsidies disappear so will the socialists who are ripping the foundations out from under thousands of years of western civilization. Want to live in a seventh century hell hole? Keep supporting globalism and you’ll get your wish.

Canada is being abandoned by foreign investors. There is no rational reason to assume they’ll come back under Trudeau with a second mandate. Canadian stocks can easily bleed another 50% to sub 8xs earnings from the current 15. For long term holders, yields are juicy and there’s no point in feeding the tax man by selling into misery. Trudeau is a screwball, everyone outside the lunchroom at the CBC knows this. But give him an ethnic/union mandate and this country will be written off until he’s gone. You decide on voting for a lost decade.

The gyrations of the market are purely perception. Stop watching the Lame Stream Media and others who lisp and bark at Trump. Keep this in mind, ISIS is not a benevolent power, vote Liberal is a vote for terror. Trump is all that stands between you and your gay brother being thrown off the CN Tower. Like him or not, Trump is God.

#85 TRUMP on 01.06.19 at 3:23 am

DO WE HAVE A LEADER IN THIS COUNTRY??

Thought we had a prime minister, haven’ t heard a Word from him in months.

And we pay him for what again?

Such a shame.

#86 Dolce Vita on 01.06.19 at 4:55 am

#54 not 1st

“…you should know that mall santas are a big part of our employment numbers.”

THAT was too funny.

Look it, Cdn’s are NOT STUPID. Just read the Comments to this Blog, pretty smart group. Taught many in my altruistic, put something back into Society, days (about 8-10,000) and I can tell you Cdn’s are a WELL EDUCATED and BRIGHT BUNCH.

What pisses me off is that StatCan thinks we’re a bunch of CHILDREN requiring MOLLYCODDLING and that we haven’t a clue about seasonality and its effect on job numbers.

That grates my ass to no end, being treated like a child and worse, being WHITE LIED to.

Also, usually the Unadjusted and Seasonal numbers are not that far apart EXCEPT for Dec. 2018.

How on God’s Green Earth to you turn -51,800 job losses into +9,300 jobs created?

ARIMA has to be one hell of a customizable program that spews what you want it to.

I’m not Neurotic (scored 11 on Doc Peterson’s World of Shrink test) and I just hate being white lied to.

#87 Harley Gains on 01.06.19 at 6:05 am

http://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/canada-added-9-300-jobs-in-december-as-unemployment-holds-at-5-6-1.1193524

As it looks, the 2018 jobs numbers are a complete fraud. The new numbers are frightening. If the Trudeau government has been defrauding Canadians out of billions using phony numbers to justify massive deficits the gallows must measured.

#88 David Hawke on 01.06.19 at 6:56 am

Typical view of the elite 1%, leave a petulant childish moron in charge of the world’s largest (for now) economy because it may affect your profits. That’s the reason the Y’all redneck religious masses of sheeple voted Demented Donnie in!

#89 Ryan Lewenza on 01.06.19 at 8:25 am

Nonpulsed “Ryan, I rarely have reason to comment on your posts because they are well, pretty hard to argue with. But now and then you pull a “Garth”.

The wall needs to be and should be funded. It is the right thing to do and $5 billion in a $1 trillion budget is nothing.”

I wasn’t taking a personal stand on whether the wall should be built. I understand this is a real problem and they need to do more to tighten up the border but I actually don’t know what the best route is to accomplish this (ie a wall or increased guards and technology). I was making more of a political observation that Trump will never get his wall funding. This is just based on the control of the House and Senate. The Republicans lost big time in the House and have a slight majority in the Senate, so given this Trump will never get his wall funding based on the current Congress breakdown. Trump lost his chance! It’s exactly like Obama when in his second term Congress switched over to the Republicans and he lost all his power to pass any of this agenda items. Don’t you think it’s odd that Trump’s now making this a huge issue and willing to go to any lengths to try to get this done? He had TWO years under a Republican Congress to get this done. Why didn’t he address this then if it was so important. Sorry Trump, you played your hand wrong and you lost. Again, this is just a political assessment and not a personal opinion. – Ryan L

#90 not 1st on 01.06.19 at 8:28 am

#74 Nonplused on 01.06.19 at 12:25 am

If the “wall” is immoral, shouldn’t the existing structures and border patrol and customs be removed?

—–

Why stop there. Why have any security at all anywhere. Why have a TSA. Why have scanners. Why have fences around power stations and around your back yard. Why have police or an army. Why have gated communities where I am sure Pelosi lives.

If you want unimpeded flow of people without any checks then go all the way. Nothing bad is going to happen.

#91 akashic record on 01.06.19 at 8:29 am

#63 Ustabe

Another line of thought is he was given an unconstitutional task and being a military man he did the only thing available to him other than directly confronting the commander in chief. The people I read seem to favor this interpretation rather than yours.

Time will tell, meanwhile we all get to watch.

—-

People you read happen to know and say what exactly the “unconstitutional task” was?

Or they just speculate, making up unfunded, unconfirmed “line of thought”, based on the criteria what they can favour, for their own purpose and goals, whether the “line of fought” is a fact or not?

#92 Ryan Lewenza on 01.06.19 at 8:48 am

David Hawke “Typical view of the elite 1%, leave a petulant childish moron in charge of the world’s largest (for now) economy because it may affect your profits. That’s the reason the Y’all redneck religious masses of sheeple voted Demented Donnie in!”

If Mueller uncovers clear illegality and collusion with Russia then impeachment could be justified. If not then I think the Dems pushing impeachment for political reasons would be a mistake. Whether you like it or not 40-45% of the American people and 90% of Republicans still support him. Think how divisive his impeachment would be to an already polarized and divided country. And yes it would be bad for the markets AND OUR CLIENTS who have much of their life savings invested in the markets and with us. – Ryan L

#93 KLNR on 01.06.19 at 8:51 am

@#82 George Eastern on 01.06.19 at 1:37 am

The gyrations of the market are purely perception. Stop watching the Lame Stream Media and others who lisp and bark at Trump. Keep this in mind, ISIS is not a benevolent power, vote Liberal is a vote for terror. Trump is all that stands between you and your gay brother being thrown off the CN Tower. Like him or not, Trump is God.
________________________________

LMAO, ok sure.

#94 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.06.19 at 8:58 am

@#83 Trump
“Thought we had a prime minister, haven’ t heard a Word from him in months.”

*****
Well, after looking at the sinking poll numbers…I’m quite sure T2’s handlers want him as far from the limelight as possible.
Hence the Christmas trip to the troops in ….Mali was it?

https://globalnews.ca/video/4789600/justin-trudeau-visits-canadian-troops-in-mali-3

I’m quite sure the media are now looking for the “gaffe” shot every time he is in public.

#95 Glengarry Girl on 01.06.19 at 9:12 am

The support for Trump on this Canadian Blog is sick, his downfall can’t come quick enough. I don’t want him Impeached, I hope he comes apart like all Con Artists do, outed and undisputed. DON THE CON, if you are blind to see this, I feel bad for your judgement. His whole life he has been a fraud, he lies so often America and the World have resorted to ignoring him. He has not only weakened America, but is Destructive to the World. You may find some grains of good in what he says, but most of what comes out of his mouth is absolute nonsense. In the meantime, infrastructure a D rating, Education, well Betsy has done nothing to improve, only Policy talked about is to arm teachers. Healthcare billing and health insurance is so corrupt and illegal it just continues to rob people blind, no accountability. The Senate was shown to be completely broken during the Kavanaugh hearings. This mess is going to take years to clean up.

#96 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.06.19 at 9:25 am

@#85 Harley
“If the Trudeau government has been defrauding Canadians out of billions using phony numbers to justify massive deficits ”

****
The T2 govt has been very upfront about their massive deficit spending.
The sheeple that zombie-walk through life with their heads down, texting, will only realize they have been truly “lied to” when their taxes/ user fees/ etc rise to levels only currently imagined.

But not to worry , that time should be a decade or so away when T2 is long gone and the sheeple will blame who ever is currently in power….and the current govt in power counts on “joe sixpacks” laziness.

If you need an example of the “govt ponzie game” look at how the former Christy Clark govt in BC threw money around on mega projects(BC Hydro site C dam, sale of BC Rail) we didnt need OR withheld necessary rate increases( , ICBC, BC Ferries, BC Hydro, etc) knowing full well the Bills wouldnt come through at that time….wait for at least a decade….
The NDP are now in power and forced to do the dirty work.
Its criminal the way billions in taxpayer money is wasted and it happens year after year after year with every sitting govt and if you were a CEO of a large publicly traded company with shareholders ( taxpayers?) in any other country but Canada and you did this type of “money shell games”….you would be in jail……

Unfortunately the days of PM Cretien and Finance minister Paul Martins deficit reductions are far behind us .
The debt clock was at $500 billion and actually going down for a decade or so.

http://www.debtclock.ca/

#97 dharma bum on 01.06.19 at 9:52 am

Prediction:

In 12 years from now, the financial markets will be UP.
In 12 years from now, the housing market will be DOWN.

Check the record on January 6, 2031. You’ll then see I was correct.

#98 Fish on 01.06.19 at 10:05 am

Privacy laws in Canada

https://www.priv.gc.ca/en/privacy-topics/privacy-laws-in-canada/

#99 not 1st on 01.06.19 at 10:10 am

#93 Glengarry Girl on 01.06.19 at 9:12 am
—–

It might be better for your to just go enjoy your retirement and stop watching the news. There is a new deal with the US and the world being rewritten and Trump is the author. You are watching CNN. The rest of us know the issues he is taking on. They are intergenerational issues to cement Americas dominance in the world economy while shoring up its home front.

Gone are the days of prissy Canadians and others bad mouthing the US and then taking their protection and aid and stealing their industries and technology and jobs. That’s done like dinner and you better get used to it.

Have you ever thought of emigrating? We would be grateful. – Garth

#100 Ace Goodheart on 01.06.19 at 10:10 am

RE: #65 Renter’s Revenge! on 01.05.19 at 10:31 pm

“If you take being called a moron as a compliment, it must mean you’re either an idiot or an imbecile.

https://bookofthrees.com/iq-test-3-levels-of-stupidity/

Thanks for coming out, Ace :)”

What I meant, was, if certain posters on here were to respond to me like “we totally agree with you, Ace” then I would be concerned, thinking “maybe I was misunderstood”. As long as these certain folks continue to strongly disagree with me, I consider that a complement to my abilities to correctly express myself.

The stronger they disagree, really, the better i feel.

Being complemented by certain folks, would actually be more of an insult. Being insulted by them, is more of a compliment.

#101 Livinlarge on 01.06.19 at 10:16 am

“The wall needs to be and should be funded. It is the right thing to do and $5 billion in a $1 trillion budget is nothing.”. $5 billion isn’t even remotely the final cost of construction of a wall. That’s the problem, I’ve read estimates of $30 b when all is said and done.

$5 billion is just The Don’s first installment. The Dems see this for what it is, death by a 1,000 cuts. As long as The Don can shut down the gov or extort more $$ the next time he and the Dems clash then this would just give him the tool to do so.

The entire concept of a wall over 1,000 of kms of border being effective at reducing illegal migration is just simple minded drivel. People wanting to enter the US won’t diminish just becaus there’s a barrier, they go around, they go over, they go under and they may even simply breach the barrier with a bulldozer or explosives.

Patrolling the border with increased vigilance will reduce the infiltration but determined people will always find a route around a static barrier.

Why would the Dems agree to start funding the wall knowing there is no chance on earth that it will end with $5 billion?

#102 NoName on 01.06.19 at 10:22 am

Take that big pharma!

Science says that drinking in moderation—as in two cocktails a day—can boost the body’s immune system.

https://www.maxim.com/.amp/food-drink/bourbon-cocktail-to-battle-flu-2018-12

“With cold and flu season at the door, many people will be heading out to get a flu shot. That’s a great idea, but research has shown that if you’re a moderate drinker, you may have an advantage in fighting off the nasty bugs that come your way.”

https://www.maxim.com/maxim-man/colds-flu-cocktails-2016-9


Bonus read, few recipes.

I am think ing “Bullshot” looks easy and promising, could replace soups as meal entree during flu season.

https://www.supercall.com/entertaining/best-alcohol-to-drink-when-sick

#103 att on 01.06.19 at 10:36 am

So according to your post there are only two variables that determine the rise and fall of the stock market in 2019? Do you think it’s time to get a bigger crystal ball?

#104 Ernesto on 01.06.19 at 10:39 am

Why blaming Trump when you should be blaming China.
Reminds me of the guy who found his wife with another man in the couch, instead of throwing away the wife he threw away the couch.

#105 akashic record on 01.06.19 at 10:48 am

#87 Ryan Lewenza on 01.06.19 at 8:25 am

I wasn’t taking a personal stand on whether the wall should be built. I understand this is a real problem and they need to do more to tighten up the border but I actually don’t know what the best route is to accomplish this (ie a wall or increased guards and technology). I was making more of a political observation that Trump will never get his wall funding. This is just based on the control of the House and Senate. The Republicans lost big time in the House and have a slight majority in the Senate, so given this Trump will never get his wall funding based.

We all know that most politicians are not willing to publicly admit that “this is a real problem”.

They do their best to telegraph the world that not only there is no real problem, but Trump makes up this problem. Either because he is racist, etc. or because pushing this non-existing problem is used to manipulate people to get votes.

In this process the “real problem” magically disappears and morphs into “his wall”, some kind of a personal hobby project. Supposedly with the sole purpose of self-serving his alleged personal moral shortcomings, or as an act of a new political dictator, on par with Hitler, at the expense of millions of innocent people.

With this process his opponents make sure that there is no discussion about the real problem, or finding the solution, whether it is a wall, technology, etc.

Not only in the past TWO years, but in the past couple of decades, during the time the same politicians did exactly nothing to solve the real problem, that they lately no longer even admit to exist.

Is this a real problem or not?

#106 AK on 01.06.19 at 11:10 am

“#90 Ryan Lewenza on 01.06.19 at 8:48 am
Whether you like it or not 40-45% of the American people and 90% of Republicans still support him. – Ryan L”

====================================
The 40-45% number is based on CNN’s fake reporting. The real number is much higher.
We will all find out when President Trump gets re-elected to a second term on November 2020.

#107 not 1st on 01.06.19 at 11:12 am

Have you ever thought of emigrating? We would be grateful. – Garth

——

Absolutely. I will be emigrating to Alberta when they join the US. Until then truth must be told

#108 Glengarry Girl on 01.06.19 at 11:16 am

#97 Not 1st

LOL

#109 russell on 01.06.19 at 11:23 am

You are a portfolio manager?? Wow, with your highly optimistic report on 2019 you are like the people at TREB it is all good until it is not. A 12 year old can see what is coming… what charts are you viewing to post such an upside down view of reality… unbelievable…

#110 KLNR on 01.06.19 at 11:25 am

@#105 not 1st on 01.06.19 at 11:12 am
Have you ever thought of emigrating? We would be grateful. – Garth

——

Absolutely. I will be emigrating to Alberta when they join the US. Until then truth must be told
__________________________________

Bwahahahaha, so you’re not leaving Canada.
Say it ain’t so!

#111 NoName on 01.06.19 at 11:27 am

if you remember this, that you probably have a good idea how funny next 2 yrs will be. drow your own conclusions what would happens if dicky didn’t beg…

Paulson remarked that then-Vice President Dick Cheney said he “had never seen anything like” a caustic closed-door session between Democratic and Republican leaders as they tried to resolve the crisis. Paulson recalled walking into the session and trying to break the tension by dropping to one knee before House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and saying, “Nancy, please don’t blow this thing up.”

https://www.cnbc.com/id/39869844

#112 NoName on 01.06.19 at 11:31 am

One of many places where i get some of my information.

http://china.ucsd.edu/

#113 Steven Rowlandson on 01.06.19 at 11:44 am

Shutting down the government is justified.

1. The government owes too much and has to stop spending and more importantly they have to stop borrowing.

2. The political parties and too much of the government are run by globalists and their allies. In short they are subversives and at the very least should be excluded from government and access to government.

3. The democrats and other leftists are obstructing the national interest and racial interest of the nation.
That has to stop.

‘The racial interest?’ Better explain that. – Garth

#114 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.06.19 at 11:44 am

@#95 dharma bum
“Check the record on January 6, 2031. You’ll then see I was correct.”
++++

Apparently you havent been reading Trumpocalypse2019’s dire predictions…

Civilization will be over as we know it…(or it ended the day a snake oil salesman like Trump became President)… anywho.

2031?
We’ll either be radioactive ash blowing in the wind OR

You and I will be “mind-linked” via the AI “quantum-net” as catering machines force feed us soylent green porridge while we experience 3D “life” through our augmented reality….
Hopefully our retirement investments can afford us more comfortable chair-beds than the “cat food and KD eating rabble” surviving on CPP and OAS….

Resistance is Futile.

#115 Doug in London on 01.06.19 at 12:21 pm

Yes 2018 was a total stinker of a year for investment returns, no doubt about it. However, all wasn’t bad. For those of you who patiently bought and held, the dividends kept rolling in. Otherwise, if you bought when stocks were on sale such as in the days leading up to Christmas you scored some good deals. Yes, it was as good a reason as any to believe in Santa Claus. Regardless of what happens in this new year, there will be opportunities as always. As the saying goes, there’s difficulty in every opportunity and opportunity in every difficulty.

#116 Doug in London on 01.06.19 at 12:32 pm

@dharma bum, post #95:
I can’t verify that prediction because my time machine doesn’t work. However, it’s my understanding that over long time periods the TSX and NYSE have beaten housing markets on average. What we saw in the last 10 years or so, especially in markets like Toronto and Vancouver, was an anomaly and won’t be repeated any time soon. As for the time machine how do you get this thing to work, Mr. Wells?

#117 Trumpocalypse2019 on 01.06.19 at 12:33 pm

Sometimes the truth finds a sneaky way to reveal itself, in spite of our willful blindness and denial, Ryan.

Optimistic outlook? No chance.

War and chaos? Yep.

Trump+China+Russia+Brexit+Syria+++++++

The dog looking out the window in your photo today tells the real truth.

He died three months ago.

#118 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.06.19 at 12:45 pm

The Trump Administration list of staff who have quit or been fired…updated to include the Mattis resignation yesterday.
No one wants to be near this guy when he goes down in flames.

This POTUS breaks all records for staff resignations…

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Trump_administration_dismissals_and_resignations

What an unmitigated disaster this vain, narcissistic, man-child has been for the Presidency of the US.
All at a time when China is in the ascendant and Russia devolves into a mafia state.

Impeachment cant come soon enough for this unhinged loon who makes up lies as it suits him
Unfortunately, Vice President Pence believes in “Revelation End of Days” armageddon and the sounding of the Trumpets.”
One wonders if the ancient Biblical verses were referring to Trumps bloviating……..

#119 Godth on 01.06.19 at 12:56 pm

#79 Deplorable Dude

lol, you guys that think it’s all about extent are funny. as your wife continually tells you it’s about thickness + extent = volume.
less than a meter of slush is not the same as up to five meters of hard thickness. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CmapHdTOR1k

watch australia this summer. this fellow has been keeping his own records for daily precip. and temp. for more than a decade in his own local. as he says, he’s now living in a fuel bomb (100 acre forest he owns) and he’s invested in water storage and fire fighting equipment as he knows what’s coming in the near future. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7f7oTZweDJg

#120 whiplash on 01.06.19 at 1:14 pm

Interesting to watch the democratic circus going on in Washington about the wall. Obama was president and Janet Napolitano was head of Department of Homeland Security, the democrats spent 5 years and over $1 billion working with Boeing to build a “virtual fence,” project was named SBI-NET.

It was scrapped because it was “INEFFECTIVE”. Star wars technology may work when your dealing with a few hundred people but that is not the case and the democrats know it. Nancy Pelosi can access data and see the numbers for the past 62 months alone from her home state of California and the Texas border. When total apprehensions are over 2.6 million and these two states spend $3.5 billion a month on all aspects of illegal immigration a drone is not going to cut it!

#121 Ryan Lewenza on 01.06.19 at 1:25 pm

att “So according to your post there are only two variables that determine the rise and fall of the stock market in 2019? Do you think it’s time to get a bigger crystal ball?”

Did you even read the blog? It always cracks me how people zero in a few specific things and miss the bigger picture. I referenced two headwinds from last year that could be tailwinds for 2019, then referenced the decent economy, higher corporate profits and attractive valuations. Does that sound like two variables? – Ryan L

#122 Godth on 01.06.19 at 1:27 pm

#116 crowdedelevatorfartz
trump is a product, not a cause. russia devolves into a mafia state? where ya been hiding?
Russian Godfathers (1 of 3) The Fugitive
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZLPxyDlQfBc&t=3s
china has won the battle for eurasia. it’s a good thing american/euro. corporations have profited along the way though.

#123 Trumpocalypse2019 on 01.06.19 at 1:39 pm

In honour of Blarney O’Budrick and all our wonderful dog companions, spent time this weekend preparing for the days of Trumpocalypse ahead.

Metro and Sobeys have some good deals on dog food.
Stock up. Your neighbours will be eating this soon.

No Frills has canned beans on sale until Thursday.

Food dehydrators are on sale at several big boxes too.

Dark days may seem like they are far in the distance. But they are coming right at us, faster with each passing hour.

PREPARE.

#124 TurnerNation on 01.06.19 at 2:00 pm

Almost a record number of comments for the new weekend guy.

To Ace Goodheart I’ve waded thought your gibberish, gobledegook and ramblings. Can’t take it anymore, I must tell you.
KEEP IT UP! I do enjoy your stories of Toronto real estate and your local ‘hood. Blog dog on the ground keeping it real, dare I say you are like a sobar SM?


Always look at the first derivative. Walls. Our sitting PMs always praise toward a little country in the ME, with their wall. Their rights are always defended by our PM.
And USCR.US. Look up that stock symbol if you like concrete.

#125 Glengarry Girl on 01.06.19 at 2:10 pm

Doug In London

I mean no disrespect, and I do hope your investments work out for you in the end, but you really should consider that they may not. I do hope the Housing Bubble corrects significantly because I’d like for my kids to experience affordable housing. You are making market calls as though you know the outcome. You are proclaiming that you somehow know that the 20% correction is over, buy at the dip, carry on. You, me, Garth, Ryan, no one knows the future, we all have a different opinion of what to expect and plan accordingly. How do you know that we are just at the beginning of a very long and drawn out correction? That we are at the peak of leaverage and a Debt Bubble is beginning to correct. Can this be manipulated, of coarse, we have been seeing this happening for decades. However, a much larger correction in Housing also can be ahead of us. The last time GTA housing corrected it took over 10 years to return to peak value. This time Canadians are in far more debt than 25 years ago and what has been described before, things are much more inflated. None of us on here know for sure what the future holds, we are in unknown territory.

#126 Dr. Brice Harper on 01.06.19 at 2:13 pm

Ryan, Do you think anything could “TRUMP” the US President’s influence in the markets in 2019?

#127 NoName on 01.06.19 at 2:22 pm

You dont have to watch all just first min its enough. Speech was in 2007, 1st 5 min is talking about something from 1997…

Definetly listen to this one!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hrMjegvkyL0

than this one similar speak 11 yrs later.
https://www.commonwealthclub.org/events/archive/podcast/preventing-cold-war-ii-game-plan-healthy-competition-china

Trampolinocolapse2019 might be on to something this year.

#128 Deplorable Dude on 01.06.19 at 2:46 pm

#17 Godoth “lol, you guys that think it’s all about extent are funny.”…

Lol…the Arctic is about as stuffed with ice as it can be…as of yesterday…..18,451 cu km, 97.96% of the 17-year average for the day.

#129 espressobob on 01.06.19 at 3:25 pm

Herd mentality is the only predictable element when it comes to investing. Severe panic and the chicken little syndrome kick into overdrive every time, when the markets go south.

When the deals are gone, they’re gone. Better luck next time.

#130 Nonplused on 01.06.19 at 8:37 pm

#87 Ryan Lewenza

Please don’t think I was making a personal attack against you, I wasn’t. There is a whole bunch of people out there talking against a “wall” and I was triggered.

You may be correct, Trump may have left it too late. He might not get his funding. But if he doesn’t, it will provide him with some excellent campaign material, especially now that so many videos are surfacing of Democrats calling for more border security in the past. He’ll just be able to tweet out a mashup of those videos and he will win.

Anyway I think Scott Adams (yes Dilbert) is right. Calling it a “wall” is just mental imagine, and what should be done instead is to fund border security to build what they think is necessary where they think it is necessary. The fact is there are already “walls” and “fences” on the US border, but there aren’t enough to deal with the modern problem the way it has evolved. Trump isn’t going to “build” a wall, there is one already there in places. He’s going to expand the funding for it. That’s all. If the Democrats oppose, they will not fair well when Trump hits the 2020 campaign trail. He is a master of framing visual images. Much better than all but a few gave him credit for.

Anyway, I think it was all political grandstanding. They really can’t find $5B in the budget for a campaign promise? For something they already do? I don’t believe it. I think that Peplosi planed to shut down the government from day one. Unfortunately for her over 60% of Americans are unaware it happened and so far the only problem is that people have to pack their own garbage out of national parks.

#131 Nonplused on 01.06.19 at 8:44 pm

#99 Livinlarge

It probably would be $30B to “wall” the whole border. But I doubt that’s what they are going to do. They will put more walls (they already have walls in key locations) where they need them, fences where that will do, and more security cameras.

Do you have a fence around your yard? Do you lock your doors? Do you have a security camera? Maybe that’s immoral or a waste of money.

#132 Doug in London on 01.06.19 at 10:30 pm

@Glengarry Girl, post #123:
Yes, it’s possible that a bigger correction could be coming, but at today’s prices many stocks and ETFs have a very good yield. Also consider that you need to have a diversified portfolio, as mentioned here many times, if a correction does happen. Last but not least, you’ve clearly shown why most people miss out on good buying opportunities as they expect further drops that rarely materialise. Then if the markets rally they pile money in after there’s been a run up in prices. Isn’t that the opposite of what you should do?

#133 LivinLarge on 01.07.19 at 8:57 am

Nonplused, say what? I didn’t write #99.

Even if I did, I don’t understand your point. The Don’s often stated intent is indeed to build a wall across the entire border. Unless a physical barrier is across the entire border it is even more useless. The wall might have been a plan in China centuries ago but this ain’t China centuries ago. Such a physical barrier in the 21st century just doesn’t deliver the intended result when migrants can easily walk around the ends.

I personally don’t oppose the wall on any morality issue, just because it’s a political boondoggle designed to salve the simpleminded “base”. It won’t work unless it’s relatively short, contains a minefield either side and 24/7 guards willing to shoot to kill, ala Berlin post WW2.

I don’t have a fence around my house, just around the pool an since I live in a low crime area of SWO there are many times I forget to lock my doors.

#134 LivinLarge on 01.07.19 at 9:19 am

If anyone in favor of The Don’s wall will take the time to look at a map of the southern US you will see the futility of even starting a border wall of the kind The Don keeps saying it will be. The US/Mexico border doesn’t extend coast to coast so doing an end run in the east is as easy as falling asleep in church unless there’s going to be a wall across Louisiana and Florida as well. There is that enormous thoroughfare called the Gulf of Mexico allowing unfettered access to the US.

#135 LivinLarge on 01.07.19 at 9:31 am

“Anyway, I think it was all political grandstanding. They really can’t find $5B in the budget for a campaign promise?” well of course they can put an additional $5b into a budget if they want to but they don’t want to simply because it won’t end there. The Don will just stonewall every bit of new legislation for another $5b or $10b now that he’s found how to extort the Dems.

The physical wall just doesn’t work in the 21st C with the incredible mobility people now have.

And then there’s that pesky, unfunded tax cut for the real 1% shoved through by one senate vote. Personally I wonder just how many middle class Americans are now looking at their market losses in their 401Ks and other portfolios and comparing that to their reductions in taxes. I’m betting that the losses FARRRRRRR out weigh their tax savings. The Don is almost single handedly to blame for the current state of the markets and that’s going to hang around his neck like an albatross until it corrects more than 100% almost immediatly.

#136 LivinLarge on 01.07.19 at 9:39 am

As far as I can see, the Trump Trade war with China is pretty much moot.

Like them or not, the Chinese have briliantly been devloping their “New Silk Road” initiative that totally marginalizes the US in their long term plans.

They are throwing trillions into infrastructure projects like ports, railroads and free trade zones with just about any country willing to accept their money. Those countries are the big consumer spenders of the future and China is funding their growth and therefor permanent economic loyalty and dependence.

#137 Doug in London on 01.08.19 at 4:00 pm

@Glengarry Girl, post #125:
Have you looked at the markets lately? Do you still think that we are just at the beginning of a very long and drawn out correction? Was it a mistake to buy on that dip Good Ole Saint Nick generously gave us on Christmas Eve? Just curious.