Moister mentality

Andrew and his squeeze are both 30, live in delusional Vancouver, read this troubled blog and earn $150,000 together. No debt. Nice. About $160,000 saved and invested. “I’m not sure I’ve ever seen you write about this,” he writes, “and since it is something we will be facing in the coming years I would be curious to know your thoughts.”

Like all moisters, they want real estate. “We figure we may join the property ladder in a couple of years when our portfolio could be around $250,000, hopefully when things have cooled a little in the housing market but perhaps not. This isn’t some investment strategy, we just want a permanent home to live in (yes, call it moister mentality if you will!).”

But is this possible? RBC said the other day you need an income of more than $200,000 and a big, fat 25% downpayment to afford anything with dirt attached in YVR. Given that this excludes the bulk of the population, anyone without a house already or equity to use, is pretty much pooched. But Andrew persists…

“I am making sure we stick to your rule of 90, so assuming we have around $250,000 that would be a down payment of $150,000 (60%). Based on our income and down payment I figure we could afford a property in the $600 – $750k region without putting too much stress on ourselves financially. I know that won’t get a lot in the lower mainland (a townhouse if we’re lucky!) but it is what it is.”

So here’s the question:

“What should we do with our portfolio for the next couple of years based on the fact we intend to buy a property? Do we still keep the 60/40 portfolio you always recommend, or drop it to a less risky one, say 40/60? I know you often say don’t change your portfolio based on what the market is doing, but this is based on long-term investing. If your horizon is short-term and you need most the money in a couple of years, how does this affect your strategy, especially as it seems like the economy could be beginning to stall within the next 2 years? I don’t want to find ourselves with a portfolio that is 30% lower than I had expected due to a crash at the worst possible time. Thanks for the blog! Been a daily reader for many years as most people seem to have been.”

First, to refresh: the Rule of 90 is pretty simple. Deduct your age from 90 to ascertain what percentage of your net worth should be in a house. The idea is young people can sustain more risk and debt. Old farts shouldn’t. Having too much of your net worth in any one asset (especially residential real estate in the Lower Mainland) could become a really bad idea. Mills can probably recover if things turn south. Boomers cannot.

But what about financial portfolios?

There’s a difference between money you save and money to invest. Funds Andrew and his bride want for a downpayment in 24 months should not be put at undue risk. Having said that, the best two-year GIC rate available is 3.3%, and every dollar earned outside of registered accounts is taxable. The inflation rate is about 2%, so the real return over two years on $150,000 is scant. But if Andrew’s determined to buy real estate (which is heading down in BC, and picking up steam) the best non-risk choices are a GIC or HISA. Sadly this means all their investment assets must be cashed in, and neutered. So should they decide not to become homeowners later, there’ll have been zero portfolio growth.

Here’s an option: buy a house with 5% down. Set aside only $30,000, not all of the current nut. As we’ve been telling you, central banks are growing dovish and bond yields have plunged. The big lenders are under pressure to maintain or even drop the price of five-year mortgages. It’s conceivable fixed-rate home loans will still be in the 3% range in a couple of years – so why not use this cheap money instead of your own, or be in any hurry to pay it off? Besides, 5%-downers often get the best mortgage rates since the banks know they’re CMHC-backstopped.

Sure, Andrew, you want a forever house, blah, blah. Everybody says that about their first home. But it rarely happens. So why lock up a lot of equity? Especially when you should earn 6% or 7% on a long-term annual basis investing your money prudently? If Comrade Horgan & the Dippers get their way, remember, the townhouse you pay $700,000 for might be a miserable investment.

Up to you, Andrew. But spending your wad on a rowhouse in Abby, PoCo or some other boring, soul-sucking burb a hellish commute from the city centre needs to have a reason attached to it. Having a ‘permanent home’ is a myth. Home is where the dog sleeps. And he doesn’t give two sniffs if you own it.

124 comments ↓

#1 Old gringo on 12.28.18 at 4:38 pm

Merry Xmas and a very happy new year

#2 Shawn Allen on 12.28.18 at 4:38 pm

Crazyfox has Crazy Claim on Electricity losses

CrazyFoz at 113 yesterday claimed:

“We lose 2/3rds of generated power on average globally through transmission.”

**************************
I am not getting into the debate on solar replacing conventional but the 2/3rds loss claim is completely false.

I worked in the electricity industry for 29 years. Losses in Alberta from generator to meter were somewhere in the 3% to 5% range. Transmission and distribution together.

In some areas the losses would be higher. But certainly in the densely populated U.S. it is probably lower. Ditto most of the developed world. When generation is far from the customer very high voltages are used to reduce losses. Direct Current is also increasingly used to lower losses.

Whoever told you the losses are anything close to 2/3rds has absolutely no credibility on that point at least. No way is the world average over 10%, simply no way.

You also claim:

“40% of conventional energy is there for peak hours only, used mere days out of a year.”

Also not correct. The needle peak on say the 5 highest days of the year is just a few percentage points higher. Certainly most power is used during business hours and there are peaks and valleys.

It might be correct to say that the average load is 60% of peak therefore 40% is needed for above average hours. But that would be thousands of hours. In Alberta the average load is I strongly recall over 70% of the peak, but Alberta does have a flat profile compared to many places.

Whoever said there are giant needle peaks that account for 40% of capacity has no credibility. Completely false.

What was I saying yesterday about the sad state of affairs where experts are no longer trusted? and anyone can claim anything they want on the internet and often be believed. Sad.

#3 DON on 12.28.18 at 4:42 pm

Meant for this post not last. Cheers,

In terms of real estate sentiment has changed…things have declined. Prices don’t rise forever and younger people now have a taste of that. Fear is now your biggest motivator as salaries are the same and first time home buyers are priced out.

Things have already changed.

I was told that I can now get a house in retirement mecca for the high 300k and low 400k. How can you replace all those who are passing on in a low average wage environment. Parksville/Qualcomm area. Young people are priced out and the old are checking out. Yes people are moving from the mainland, but their prices are also falling. Look to Australia’s housing fiscal.

Stop listening to your local realtor MSM rag. Great fire starter though.

Those with good wages are putting off full retirement as most climbed the property ladder and still remained over indebted. Hell some people are retiring and getting part-time or lower wage jobs to supplement their pensions. It is becoming a trend. No longer do they want the responsibilities that are associated with higher positions… so they retire and get a part-time/full-time job with less responsibilities. Others got divorced and lost half their pensions. Perception is one thing, but right in your face reality is hard to alter.

Everything is temporary. People with better than average incomes are struggling and indebted at all ages. Divorces and bankruptcies are up.

#4 For those about to flop... on 12.28.18 at 4:46 pm

CONFIRMED PINK SNOW.

This one only got sold in December and b.c assessment already cleared it which normally means something going on like it’s back on the market or something kooky.

I’ve seen some people state that things are still going alright in Surrey.

Really?

Depends on your definition of alright, I guess.

The losses aren’t as spectacular as the Westside and West Vancouver but man did these guys do a job on themselves.

The details…

13052 19a ave,Surrey.

Paid 1.49 March 2016

Sold 1.19 December 2018

Originally asking 1.68

Assessment 1.41

Do I point out that it went half a million less than original ask?

Nah, I’ve been told before no one cares about that on the way down, only how much over ask on the way up.

They join Club 25 by losing over 25% after expenses.

375k loss and a Happy New Year to you too.

The Sell Squad aren’t too worried about the end results of all this carnage.

Only two things going on at the moment.

Do you want the slow squeeze or the quick crush…

M44BC

https://www.zolo.ca/surrey-real-estate/13052-19a-avenue

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDA3NlNCUw==

P.s ,thanks Duke for the nice message…

#5 Musty Basement Dweller on 12.28.18 at 4:50 pm

Garth, or any of the steerage section members.. (very roughly) how did your theoretically balanced model portfolio perform for calendar 2018?
[email protected] (multi shaded green colored investment branch) got me a nice fat ZERO in the past year. (although past years have been more in the order of 6-10 %. My portfolio is about 50% bonds, then a mix of other “low-medium risk” other stuff, not too far out of line with what you suggest. Maybe once things recover I will show the greens the door.

#6 Doug t on 12.28.18 at 4:51 pm

Dude if your jobs are transplantable MOVE to Calgary or anywhere cheaper than the sh*thole that is vancouver

RATM

#7 Frank The Tank on 12.28.18 at 4:55 pm

Interesting suggestion with the 5% down. I will likely be looking to move up soon and thought 20% was the rule for minimal downpayment.

Perhaps I take my gained equity from this first house, plop 5-10% on the next one and invest the rest.

#8 Ruedy McFoster on 12.28.18 at 4:56 pm

We are in the Semi-finals at the Spengler Cup! Go Team Canada. Wouldn’t it be awesome to see Trudeau there in a Team Canada Jersey?

#9 dakkie on 12.28.18 at 4:59 pm

“2019: The Year of the Vanishing Home Buyer”

https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/2019-the-year-of-the-vanishing-home-buyer/

#10 DON on 12.28.18 at 4:59 pm

https://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/i-see-no-way-out-living-paycheque-to-paycheque-disturbingly-common-in-u-s

Tens years after their housing collapse.

Yup everything is back to normal. But debt lasts until you pay it off.

“Our forever house” – Hmmm. How about you concentrate on our ‘Forever Marriage’ before you stress it out by locking into a race with the Mr. and Mrs Jones. Invest your cash and wait. The key word is wait. You have yet to experience a substantial recession. Yes maybe in the future 1 – 2 years or months away but it is coming unless it is truly different this time but owning a house is a long term gig. In between life happens and it ain’t all pretty. Concentrate on your health and your relationship both of which taken for granted can give you a swift unrecoverable kick in the ass.

#11 Shawn Allen on 12.28.18 at 5:00 pm

Dual and Global Citizenship

#119 akashic record on 12.28.18 at 3:35 pm responded
#100 MF on 12.28.18 at 11:54 am

85 not 1st on 12.28.18

Dual citizenship (citizens of convenience) should be abolished.

Just the opposite… a global citizenship for everyone, valid in every single country on the planet, to be able to pick the best place for whatever you plan to do with at different stages with your life.

If capital can do it – why not people?

Until then everyone should have two or three.

************************************
I agree with Akashic.

Having one citizenship was important when countries could truly be sovereign and were at risk of war from other countries.

That is becoming old fashioned. A global world is inevitable and will require global rules.

We are actually in the death throes of nationalism. It is reacting spastically to its impending death.

The 1949 United Nations declaration said citizens should be free to move anywhere within a country’s borders. Soon it will be time to update that to anywhere on earth.

We still have tribal instincts but collectively we have moved on from small tribes to big and small nations. But increasingly we are one global people cooperating and trading globally and facing global problems that can ONLY be addressed with global rules.

Stay tuned.

#12 Morgan Creek or Up Shit's Creek With a Massive Mortgage on 12.28.18 at 5:01 pm

Be careful what you wish for. You might just get it. And I Mean – Get It!!

#13 DON on 12.28.18 at 5:05 pm

Ok enough with the pants at half mask.

Do women find that sexy? I think not! But yet some still do it. Why? I get skinny rocker jeans but the half mask denims?

Why is real estate falling at the moment if prices always go up?

#14 Shawn Allen on 12.28.18 at 5:13 pm

How Did a Balamnced Portfolio do?

#5 Musty Basement Dweller on 12.28.18 at 4:50 pm asked:

Garth, or any of the steerage section members.. (very roughly) how did your theoretically balanced model portfolio perform for calendar 2018?
[email protected] (multi shaded green colored investment branch) got me a nice fat ZERO in the past year. (although past years have been more in the order of 6-10 %. My portfolio is about 50% bonds, then a mix of other “low-medium risk” other stuff, not too far out of line with what you suggest. Maybe once things recover I will show the greens the door.

***********************************
You owe the Green man some thanks.

zero % will likely beat the balanced index this year. Anyone who did not suffer a negative return in 2018 is probably above what a well balanced index did.

One example that Garth does not like is the VBAL ETF introduced around February 1, 2018. (It is not an ideal balanced index but it provides something to compare to)

Yahoo shows $24.67 on February 1 and $23.56 today so down 4.5% and probably down something like 2% after dividends, but this is missing January.

#15 Dolce Vita on 12.28.18 at 5:14 pm

It takes a full 3 years for prices to bottom out completely. Then a decade or so to fully recover.

In La La Land wait another 2 years for the price bottom, buy then with a low down payment as Garth recommends, and in the meantime keep investing. Pay down more when price recovery begins.

WHO CARES about the interest rates now. 3% of a big number is still a BIG NUMBER in mortgage payments at current prices.

2 years from now at the price bottom even if rates are 5%, you will not care since 5% of F*** ALL is still F*** ALL.

Basic Math. RE price/timing history during/after a crash.

—————————-

Buonanotte.

Yes, I’m crabby.

It got to -1 last night here in NE Italia. Colder than a Witches Hooter to me. The Italian’s broke out their Winter gear today while shopping. Like being caught in the middle of a Milan Fashion Show runway.

And the Italian Grans here, all in their full length brownish mink stoles, like they give a s*** about what the ECO save the trees, bees, snails and whales N. American throng think. Reminds me of when I’d see a herd of bison as I’d drive in Elk Island Park, AB.

And I thought Canada was a crazy country.

Well, it is…look at who’s running it. Trump’s not the only one that gets an eye roll in the EU…Trudeau right up there with Macron.

#16 DON on 12.28.18 at 5:21 pm

https://www.thestar.com/vancouver/2018/12/27/drop-in-vancouver-home-prices-expected-to-shave-off-10-billion-in-equity.html

“VANCOUVER—After years of skyrocketing values in Vancouver, owners of homes worth millions will see the value of their properties drop by about 10 per cent this year, representing about $10 billion in total lost equity.”

New BC Assessments coming out on Jan 2. This could lock in a different kind of sentiment.

#17 Shawn Allen on 12.28.18 at 5:25 pm

How’d a Balanced Portfolio do in 2018?

Mawer offers a low-fee balanced mutual fund. Looking at Globe Investor it looks to be down about 5% on the year. 2018 figures obviously not finalized yet, much less posted.

Again, anyone who managed something positive in a balanced portfolio for 2018 is probably above average.

#18 Ben Johnson on 12.28.18 at 5:42 pm

I understand Andrews desire for a home. Renting isn’t bad untill you get “demo-victed” or your landlords sell or die. It seems hard to be a long term renter (over five years) down here, and the rental market is competitive. In this kind of an environment it’s nice to have a place you live in and can choose to stay or leave on your own terms, not the whim of a developer. Owning gives a sense of being able to control your future, and maybe that’s worth something.

#19 Dolce Vita on 12.28.18 at 5:44 pm

DELETED

#20 DON on 12.28.18 at 5:46 pm

One last post:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6523925/MI5-list-peers-connections-Russia-China-fearing-threaten-national-security.html

and then the BC Liberal Opposition MLA on Chinese state media.
https://www.richmond-news.com/news/richmond-mla-teresa-wat-delivers-lecture-on-china-central-television-1.23562684

Remember what that former CSIS director was saying.

#21 acdel on 12.28.18 at 5:48 pm

#2 Shawn Allen

You’re right, I spent 10 yrs in the electrical industry. Yes line loss was about 3 to 5% under extreme conditions, even less now with the new D.C. lines that we have just spent billions on here in ALTA.

Although I respect CrazyHorse views, the person is so inaccurate that I just cannot respond, I just shake my head.

#22 OttawaMike on 12.28.18 at 5:55 pm

#48 TurnerNation on 07.16.18 at 7:14 pm

That’s nothing. In Ottawa our illustrious police Chief Bordeleau decided a couple of years ago to remove all neighborhood cops and go to a new Strategic Initiative(SI).
It has made everything flow through the 911 call centre so all but the most serious of crimes such as assaults are not responded. An online reporting tool or hours of waiting is the new norm. Car breakins and B& E’s are basically legal if you dont get caught in the act. Crooks have learned fast that Ottawa is open for business. Finally after a revolt by cops and citizens, the chief is rolling back his SI disaster.

Of course the chief will remain in his job after wasting millions on consultants and committees to develop this failed restructuring.

#23 Calgary Cowboy on 12.28.18 at 6:00 pm

Under the reduced down payment scenario, what about the CMHC costs? The variable return on the amount invested ($120K) would be cancelled out by the added cost.

#24 Steve French on 12.28.18 at 6:04 pm

#5 Musty Basement Dweller:

My personal financial year runs 1 December to November 30th.

So with a balanced and diversified portfolio, over the past year I managed to eek out a small gain of 2.9%.

For this current month (December 2018) I am down by 1.0%.

After all the market histrionics, I’m not too stressed about it…

#25 Real Men Wear Man Buns, They Don't Ride Harleys on 12.28.18 at 6:07 pm

You’re on the right track, Andrew. Don’t let the naysayers get you down.

Real Man

#26 NoName on 12.28.18 at 6:07 pm

Energy peak hours, and power generation during same…

Many of my uncles are electricians and one of the did worked for power generation, but… Long story short when i was visiting my uncle over the one of the weekend i was at his place, he took me and my cousin to his work i guess he thought kids might learn something.

As we parked car and we were walking towards relatively small size building i could hear humming noise, when i ask him what was that he told me water pumps, so reminder of day i just watch few of them working thru open door. Actually at some point cousin and i we were sent to pick food from some restaurant and buy beers.

Few years later when i was studying to be something more than electrician, unfortunately dident worked out, low iq i guess, i learned about pumped storage hydro power plants.

Right then and there i realized what went on day day when i was kid, and what they were were fixing/replacing, two huge electric motors that were driving water pumps.

Funny how power plant worked, it pumped water all night and few hours a day from lower storage tank to upper storage tank so plant can run 3-4 hours every day to satisfy demand, in peak hours.

here is an example of same plant in canada
https://www.opg.com/generating-power/hydro/southwest-ontario/Pages/sir-adam-beck-pgs.aspx

Now i am wondering how many betters it would takes to duplicate one of those pumped storage hydro power plants.

#27 arfmoocat on 12.28.18 at 6:08 pm

Vancouver Coastal Health looking into video of rat allegedly found in bowl of chowder at restaurant

https://globalnews.ca/news/4799257/rat-soup-bowl-vancouver/

#28 Re 20.... Don on 12.28.18 at 6:12 pm

DELETED

#29 You know on 12.28.18 at 6:14 pm

Dude…but the house…add 100 on the sale more than what u want to spend..enjoy it pay for it because u r right…live on …paws down!

#30 Herb on 12.28.18 at 6:20 pm

#5 Musty Basement Dweller,

my professionally-designed, balanced, diversified etc. portfolio lost 3.6% this year.

Go buy [email protected] some flowers.

#31 BobC on 12.28.18 at 6:21 pm

Wishing everybody a happy and healthy new year. Thanks for all you do Garth.

#32 Bonhomme Carnaval on 12.28.18 at 6:27 pm

Garth Turner for Sainthood!

Seriously. Dunno how you continue to read all those unsolicited whinny ‘Ask Garth’ emails.

Happy Holidays, and all the best for 2019!

Cheers

#33 OttawaMike on 12.28.18 at 6:35 pm

Oops. Comment stealthily spiked again.

OK how about rising rents? In 2017 Toronto created more tech jobs that SF,Portland and Washington DC combined:
https://t.co/n3ORODcu2x?amp=1

How are these house owners going to keep up with rising rents when vacancy rates in Ontarios 2 largest cities are at 1%?

Debating reality here rather than deleting it is much healthier for all of us.

#34 Bob Dog on 12.28.18 at 6:39 pm

DELETED

#35 Ustabe on 12.28.18 at 6:43 pm

A little light reading…my copntribution to this absolute mess of a comment section today.

https://north99.org/2018/12/28/this-twitter-user-debunks-andrew-scheer-and-the-fraser-institute-using-simple-math/

Lastly, my gift to all in the New Year: Remember it was very few who got rich off finding the actual gold in the 1800’s…but many got rich selling the shovels, providing the meals, making donkeys available. You gotta serve, might as well make money on it.

#36 Dividends are like rent on 12.28.18 at 7:11 pm

ACE GOODHEART

You mentioned other day a person needs 3,000,000 in Canadian dividend stocks to live good. How much do you make off your 3 million, 3%?
Garth do you buy dividend stocks or just etfs?
Thanks gentlemen
Junior dividend investor

#37 acdel on 12.28.18 at 7:19 pm

Hey Garth, although it does not relate directly to real-estate wholeheartedly but does affect all those that run a business or household.

Regarding all this talk of peak demand. Imagine if you had a vacant home or business, turned on one light bulb, for let say one month or one year, staying lit for 24 hrs a day 30 or 31 days per month or 365,366 days a year your peak would be 100%; for the fact that it is on 100% of the time 24 hrs a day etc……

The problem arises when small or large companies with numerous machines etc flick the switch to activate them. If they do it all at once then the consumption of starting the machines all at the same time will cause an enormous drain on the system. Therefore causing a peak/spike on the electrical system in which an industrial meter reads. When negotiating electrical rates it will depend on the spike, your rates will be charged on the peak.

Therefore, never start them all at once, do it one at a time over a day.

With all these smart meters being installed, same thing with an household, try and avoid activating them at the same time. Try and do your laundry, dishwasher etc when peak demand is lower. The higher the peak the more you pay unless you are on a contract.

For a household the peaks are during breakfast and dinner times. Of course during dinner time ovens and stoves, microwaves are needed, but try and avoid doing the laundry, dishwasher, plugin your vehicles during these times. It will save you some hard earned cash! Anyways, have a good-night!

#38 acdel on 12.28.18 at 7:24 pm

Sorry I meant to add Load Factor. My example of the 24 hrs per day etc was based on load, the rest on peak demand, long day, anybody out there will electrical background will know what I mean. Anyways, Happy New Year to all.

#39 Deplorable Dude on 12.28.18 at 7:27 pm

#5 Musty Basement Dweller…

My diversified Canadian dividend income growth portfolio is down 9%…but I don’t care, it’s noise in the long term….

My dividend growth (i.e. income) on the other hand went up nearly 16% in 2018, as every one of my 15 holdings increased their dividends.

#40 Oakville Sucks on 12.28.18 at 7:48 pm

Who saw the Plunge Protection team manipulate the stockmmarket today????

Incredible!

There is no PPT. It’s a committee of bureaucrats. – Garth

#41 Vampire studies on 12.28.18 at 7:51 pm

Reynolds 531 – may we have commentary on the bike??

#42 Kurt on 12.28.18 at 7:52 pm

#2 Shawn Allen on 12.28.18 at 4:38 pm

– Thanks, dude!

#43 NoName on 12.28.18 at 7:52 pm

Worst questions on interview where do you se your self in 5yrs from now. I always answer if i could see what i woud do 5 yrs from now i wou definitely be able to see me buying winning next week lotto ticket…

Click on this and se general mood od non rich canadians. Melancholy and dispare i sense…

http://probit.ca/recent-developments/december-2018-newsletter/

http://probit.ca/recent-developments/december-2018-newsletter/

#44 Nonplused on 12.28.18 at 7:54 pm

“Home is where the dog sleeps.” Classic.

Also based on my dog it means “home” is pretty much anywhere. And it means my home is home to everyone else too. In my neighborhood we aren’t allowed fences according to the homeowners such and such so everyone relies on radio collars, and since the batteries eventually die or the dog just gets that determined we are all quite familiar with our neighbors, or at least their dogs. They come on over, say hi to our dog with some play time for a while, invite themselves in for a drink from the toilet, and then go to sleep on the floor until either the neighbor comes to retrieve them or they decide it’s time to go home on their own.

Touching story, I know, but it misses the point. Andrew should flee Vancouver if he can. It’s no place to live. You should live somewhere where the dogs just drop by now and again for a friendly visit. I have observed, and I believe this new theory might be true, that you can tell how friendly and safe a neighborhood is by how friendly and social the dogs are. Nice dogs = nice neighbors. Nasty dogs = nasty neighbors.

#45 KLNR on 12.28.18 at 7:58 pm

@#35 Ustabe on 12.28.18 at 6:43 pm
A little light reading…my copntribution to this absolute mess of a comment section today.

https://north99.org/2018/12/28/this-twitter-user-debunks-andrew-scheer-and-the-fraser-institute-using-simple-math/
_____________________________

bwahahaha.
andy scheer, just not ready lol

#46 joblo on 12.28.18 at 7:58 pm

“Wouldn’t it be awesome to see Trudeau there in a Team Canada Jersey?”

T2 only wears Post Nation State apparel or Costumes.

#47 Nonplused on 12.28.18 at 8:05 pm

Second post, different subject.

I don’t mean to be all SJW, but I’ve decided that asking someone “What did you get for Christmas?” is problematic and somewhat impolite. In my son’s case he got a new computer and the older child who is in college got a cash award in the same amount. So this was some serious outlay. We really didn’t want the subject discussed in front of the other children who might not have been so fortunate.

There are 3 things you never discuss in polite company: Politics, religion, and money.

You can discuss money here of course because it isn’t polite company. And politics to some extent. But I notice The Greater Fool comments section very rarely goes religious.

Anyway don’t ask my kids what they got for Christmas. Either they got too much or nothing at all. It’s not fair to put them in that spot. It’s like asking someone how much money they made last year.

#48 1% Prepper on 12.28.18 at 8:40 pm

Andrew’s mentality is oh so common. Read but don’t understand. Only someone who just started out in life and pretty ignorant of major life events would use the words “Forever house” LOL. We earn significantly more than you and wouldn’t dream of taking on half your planned mortgage

Good luck Andrew. I know no matter what you read here or what advice Garth gives you, you’ll overextend yourself for your dream house in a couple of years. Toss a couple of kids into the equation and you’ll be hitting the HELOC to pay for groceries and keeping the lights on
.

#49 young & foolish on 12.28.18 at 8:41 pm

Of course moisters “all want real estate” … there is no avoiding paying for shelter. The trick is in calculating whether you will pay more over the long haul for owning. People have done studies and it seems to be a close call. However, it turn out that ownership makes you way less flexible.

As for the 6-7% …. hmmmm … we may need a little patience before we get back to that. I’d love to be wrong, but I am preparing for lower returns, just in case.

#50 Trumpada on 12.28.18 at 8:53 pm

Albexit: Anyone investing in Canada needs to consider the impact of Alberta leaving Canada. There are endless possible domino scenarios that would follow: Does the rest of the West & North Territories leave as well? How does Ont, most indebted sub-national gov’t in the world, subsidize Que & the Maritimes? How does the Tsunami of Canadians rushing to Alberta before the cut-off date affect what’s left of Canada? Do we continue with a plunging Canadian currency or adopt the US$? Does Canadian federal & provincial gov’t debt take a haircut?

Will. Never. Happen. – Garth

#51 Rexx Rock on 12.28.18 at 9:07 pm

Its unbelievable the price difference in gas in Edmonton compared to Victoria.88.8 cents to $1.379.A $2.23 difference of a Cad imperial gallon.I guess Victoria’s high wages make up for it.

#52 akashic record on 12.28.18 at 9:24 pm

#47 Nonplused

How are humans going to continue to ask the 3 most important questions (who we are, where are we coming from, where do we go) if we can’t ask what someone got for Christmas?

Polite silence does not eliminate the wide range of conditions, circumstances, which is absolutely obvious for each of us. For every living creature, actually.

The ability to talk to each other, regardless, about anything is humanity.

#53 Snowbird on 12.28.18 at 9:26 pm

Just started reading a new book by Ray Dalio, ‘Big Debt Crises’. The man is a financial genius and billionaire, his insights are well worth reading in explaining what is happening in Canadian real estate. To sum it up, we should expect a deleveraging due to excessive debt to GDP ratios, debt is rising faster than incomes. This has happened throughout history.

#54 Yanniel on 12.28.18 at 9:32 pm

Many models (CAPE, Tobin’s Q, Hussman’s MA-CAPE, Research Affiliates, P/S, Market Cap/GDP) are forecasting buy/hold portfolios (this includes the holy grail balanced portfolio) to have returns half (or less) of that 7%. Any thoughts?

Unrelated: EQ bank has the best HISA rate at this time: 2.30%. They have CIGs as well.

US models, too heavy on bonds. – Garth

#55 Basil Fawlty on 12.28.18 at 9:40 pm

No Plunge Protection Team, from Reuters:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-treasury-explainer/explainer-plunge-protection-team-to-convene-amid-wall-street-rout-idUSKCN1ON0WG

Bureaucrats & politicians. They do not trade the markets. Myth. – Garth

#56 reynolds531 on 12.28.18 at 10:02 pm

#41 vampire

It looks like an old Peugeot that someone converted into a fixie. Flat crown fork, and looking at the seat stays I’m guessing nothing special. Someone built it to get around instead of risking an expensive bike locked outdoors.

#57 Trades on 12.28.18 at 10:10 pm

I did mine today and what a nightmare because got myself on the phone with a millennial in training. This guy didn’t know one end from another, and had to tell him what to do over and over again. I said did you send me some money, and he replied not sure, but its a maybe. Then he looked, and said its in your bank account now. I am afraid to look because there are bills to be paid with my computer.

#58 Doug in London on 12.28.18 at 10:58 pm

If you want to own real estate in the GROSSLY overpriced lower mainland, then buy REITs. Better yet, you should have scooped up REITs 5 years ago when they were on sale.

#59 Billy on 12.28.18 at 11:21 pm

“My dividend growth (i.e. income) on the other hand went up nearly 16% in 2018, as every one of my 15 holdings increased their dividends.”

B.S – Care to share the 15 holdings? (did not think so)

#60 NoName on 12.28.18 at 11:26 pm

#53 Snowbird on 12.28.18 at 9:26 pm
Just started reading a new book by Ray Dalio, ‘Big Debt Crises’. The man is a financial genius and billionaire, his insights are well worth reading in explaining what is happening in Canadian real estate. To sum it up, we should expect a deleveraging due to excessive debt to GDP ratios, debt is rising faster than incomes. This has happened throughout history.

You could post more often! I was starting to be worried about you.

#61 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.28.18 at 11:30 pm

#119 akashic record on 12.28.18 at 3:35 pm
#100 MF on 12.28.18 at 11:54 am

85 not 1st on 12.28.18

Dual citizenship (citizens of convenience) should be abolished.

Just the opposite… a global citizenship for everyone, valid in every single country on the planet, to be able to pick the best place for whatever you plan to do with at different stages with your life.

If capital can do it – why not people?

Until then everyone should have two or three.
———–
Remember the 20,000 Lebanese Canadian Dual Citizens who were airlifted out of Lebanon at great expense to the Canadian taxpayer.
The minute the conflict ceased, most of them returned to Lebanon.
Is that what you have in mind?

#62 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.28.18 at 11:44 pm

No Plunge Protection Team, from Reuters:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-treasury-explainer/explainer-plunge-protection-team-to-convene-amid-wall-street-rout-idUSKCN1ON0WG

Bureaucrats & politicians. They do not trade the markets. Myth. – Garth
——————-
Not into conspiracy stuff.
But I wonder how the Dow can pounce back 5% in one day.
Are there just a few big players or a million small time investors doing it.
Just asking.

#63 Zero is Better Than Me on 12.28.18 at 11:49 pm

#5 Musty Basement Dweller on 12.28.18 at 4:50 pm
Garth, or any of the steerage section members.. (very roughly) how did your theoretically balanced model portfolio perform for calendar 2018?
[email protected] (multi shaded green colored investment branch) got me a nice fat ZERO in the past year. (although past years have been more in the order of 6-10 %. My portfolio is about 50% bonds, then a mix of other “low-medium risk” other stuff, not too far out of line with what you suggest. Maybe once things recover I will show the greens the door.
————-

ZERO is much better than my Bay street professionally managed 60/40 balanced portfolio.

I am down 7.4% for the year. The growth in my portfolio is back in almost 2016 territory.

After seven years with a sizeable six figure balanced and regularly rebalanced portfolio, my average returns with this year’s loss is almost at GIC levels. I was running an average of 5% after fees for those years.

Sure hope there is a New Years rally.

#64 Nonplused on 12.28.18 at 11:50 pm

#52 akashic record

“How are humans going to continue to ask the 3 most important questions (who we are, where are we coming from, where do we go) if we can’t ask what someone got for Christmas?”

Those 3 questions are important, but you have to solve them on your own. And they don’t have anything to do with what I gave my kids for Christmas, which can be motivated by a number of factors, including ability to do so.

If you want to know who we are, where we came from, and where we are going I suggest you talk to a monk or a priest and leave the Christmas score card out of it.

My son got a new computer because he was using mine and carrying it off to school, and I wanted it back. I decided that my collage kids should get the same $ amount to be fair. It was a lot of money. But it isn’t anybody else’s business. There are going to be kids, even in the extended family, that didn’t get a new computer. Some of the kids on the soccer team are Muslim of Jewish and they probably didn’t get any presents at all (not everybody observes Christian traditions). So you don’t talk about it. And if you don’t talk about it, you don’t want to be asked about it. It’s common courtesy.

My in-law asked me today what I got for Christmas and I told him a gold plated 911. That stopped the conversation completely even though I got a gold plated 911. Thanks wifey!

#65 Crazyfox on 12.29.18 at 12:01 am

#128 Godth on 12.28.18 at 4:58 pm

You’re a Smil guy. Right? These are his words from your link (2017):

Smil says he would be delighted to be proved wrong—as he has been, twice, in the past. In particular, a breakthrough in cheap energy storage would change the game. “Give me mass-scale storage and I don’t worry at all. With my wind and photovoltaics I can take care of everything.” But “we are nowhere close to it,” he says.

I’ve been saying this for years myself (as an incumbent blog dog, couldn’t resist), we are nowhere close. Smil might have had a point a mere 2 years ago. Today? Its dated thinking, we would both be wrong. What Smil doesn’t know unless you hit the refresh button is how close we are with solid state batteries or liquid metal for that matter (more on that later).

I really didn’t want to get into batteries now, there’s a lot left to look at, but this is what I’ve found so far. Investors, pay attention.

In the early 1900’s, there were 200 car companies in Detroit. Today, there are over 200 electric car companies in China with 1 million cars sold there last year. This is still on pace to be 1 in 4 cars electrified by 2020. Its an unknown what will come out of China but we can’t bet against them:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2018/06/01/electric-car-sales-are-surging-in-china-infographic/#7259b15cd1f7

Most tech from concept to mass production takes 7 to 8 years. 3 years for R & D, 2 years for testing and 2 years to make a factory and work out the bugs. Once the 1st factory is built, it can be cloned anywhere in the world up and running in about 9 months and you have mass production. Concept to mass production is 8 years or less if you cut corners but with it comes risk. Y’know… today. If it takes longer, its because they don’t have it with research and may never. Enter solid state batteries:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solid-state_battery

Solid state batteries have been on the commercial radar since 2014 and are said to offer big improvements over Lithium ion in every way:

– charge capacity
– charge time
– degradation
– heat/safety issues.

Lithium batteries have struggled throughout because while its an excellent or superior exchanger of ions and its lightweight, it oxidizes quickly heats up exposed to air catching on fire, heats up in a liquid state taking and giving charge, and degrades quickly with dendrite formations as every person with a cel phone more than 2 years knows. So Lithium has major challenges and outside of charge capacity and being lightweight, everything else is against it.

Look at Tesla Panasonic batteries (250 Wh/Kg) for a moment. To get around safety issues of not blowing up, each battery is made of more than a thousand cells (1 in dia x 4 in long if I remember the dims right) to get around this issue. Lithium Ion car batteries have their own built in cooling systems that are needed to take the heat off of power charge and demand. Consumers won’t be happy with longevity either but its the best we have so far… today.
Cont.

#66 Crazyfox on 12.29.18 at 12:02 am

Cont.
All of that will change with the introduction of Solid State Batteries. How quick will they arrive? Incumbent corps are tight lipped but Samsung is rumored to introduce SSB’s in their I phones next year. The advantage? In every single way you could imagine. 70% or more capacity by volume/weight, puncture and pinch safe, dramatically less heat issues, way faster charge time, far slower degradation, they will blow Lithium Ion batteries away. Testing (cold weather, vibration, durability) is the only question mark.

How far away are they in cars? Dyson (vacuum maker) is looking to launch 3 EV’s in 2020, the first EV maker with SSB’s to do so. The market is uncertain as to whether Dyson can introduce SSB’s by 2020 but they should be taken seriously and is the western world’s dark horse if there is one partly due to their acquisition of Sakti3 in 2014 and the energy they claimed (1143 Wh/L in volumetric energy density (400 Wh/Kg on non wiki links) :

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sakti3

But still, why Dyson? Why cars? Electric motors and batteries are a great fit for them and if they emerge as the SSB leader, the money at stake is… hard to calculate but its mega. Dyson is working on building a Battery factory as we speak:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dSHN7i6cHZo

Some good things could come from Panasonic/Toyota as early as 2020 or later. Toyota has been working with SSB’s since 2014 and are now collaborating with Panasonic. BMW, Honda, Hyundai, Nissan, they are all working on SSB’s. Volkswagen announced a $100 million investment in Quantum Scape, a solid-state battery startup that spun out of Stanford. Startup EV manufacturer Fisker is looking at their SSB’s to market in 2022, 2023. Ionic Materials start up took in a $65 million investment for their SSB R & D in 2017. Earlier this year, Energy giant Total invested.

And then there’s Prologium out of Taiwan, talking about a partnership with a large German automaker:

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/prologium-the-world-leader-in-solid-state-battery-won-the-ces-2019-innovation-award-300767864.html

… and boasting 537 Wh/L with Lithium solid state and 20% volume for cooling still 50% smaller, 30% lighter and 30% cheaper than Tesla’s Model 3 batteries, ready for mass production “today”. 537, that’s double Tesla’s capacity and they are talking about Wh/L in the 700’s in 2 years. Are they ready? Don’t know, they’ve been around a while. They are in Vegas at a CES show in January if investors like to gamble.

That’s tech. Things can change quickly but know this. 10’s of billions have been spent on SSB’s and their arrival can’t come soon enough but it is coming. EV’s, Autonomous V’s, Cloud tech, TAAS, SSB’s, its all coming, its all converging within 5 years, it will be highly disruptive and will blow our minds. As my farmer friend who has bought at least 6 new JD combines over the last 10 years passed on to me from dozens of hours with sales and trade reps, “its not about the motors, its about the batteries. 2027… maybe 2025 with better batteries.” When he has $ 300,000 fuel bill to pay, you ask those questions.

What is unthinkable to some, long range electric cars, industrial machines, trains, planes (drones are here as are small electric planes), passenger planes make me doubt electric is coming next decade because of thrust needed but the changes coming in the next decade… its an exciting time to live in, hardly the time for pessimism and unwise to dismiss.

#67 Dwight R Botnen on 12.29.18 at 12:04 am

Politics aside, I thought you liked B.C.? Why so negative?

#68 Nonplused on 12.29.18 at 12:08 am

And PS #52 akashic record,

Plus we must remember that “Thou shalt not covet” made up 3 of the 14 of the 10 commandments. Although it was not stated, “Thou shalt not brag” was certainly implied.

#69 NoName on 12.29.18 at 1:09 am

#113 Crazyfox on 12.28.18 at 2:47 pm

What i want you to understand i am not some &^%#@ Luddite, i understand that there is a very good reason to curb consumption and pollution, but for a fact i know that carbon taxing me wont solve a problem.

Dude i know sent me “this” (link below) video (same as what you posted, but shorter version of it, and i watched back in apr of 2017. It was interesting back then and now, but what he is not telling is that electric car is shifting pollution from one place to another.

I am all in for plug in hybrid, less stress on day to day life, but fact remains that electric cars is not good for Canada, might be ok for southern Ontario, anywhere else is just “coal” (pun of some kind) powered vehicle.

But whats funny dude is stating Norway as prime example of how it should be… average age of 2.7 mil registered cars in Norway is 10 yrs i wonder when all those electric cars are so good why they are steel clinging on their old ice cars…

Its funny how dud says an average eve can power an average Mexican home for 10 days (min41), now i fully understand why they are trying to get state side… It is call of air-conditioned house for an average person. Model 3 with 75kva battery could suply only enough juice for for one day for air-conditioned house in mexico. Price of cheap model 3 in mexico is 35k usd, average wage in mexico is 20usd a day. At that rate hose have to work 4.8 years and not to spending a peso so he an afford cheapest model 3, iam sure some electric cars are cheaper… but math is math

And just in a case if you are thinking that i am making stuff up.
Anywhere else is just “coal” (pun of some kind) powered vehicle.
Vinod Khosla visits Google’s Mountain View, CA headquarters to discuss renewable energy and the path to real impact. This event took place on April 22, 2009, as part of the [email protected] series.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=euXfy9c3Vuw
cartoon and good one
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=17xh_VRrnMU

2.7 mil registered cars in Norway is 10 yrs.
https://www.ssb.no/en/bilreg#relatert-tabell-1
Look at those tables, how nice they are, we could learn something from them. 5% electric cars, it is impressive, i hope that they have some good recycling plan/plant for all those batteris that will need to be recycled in a few yrs. keep in mind that recycled li is 5x more expensive that “mined” one.

Here is a video that i watched more than a year ago…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E7Jg1IJ68_g

#70 yvr_lurker on 12.29.18 at 1:46 am

#6 Dude if your jobs are transplantable MOVE to Calgary or anywhere cheaper than the sh*thole that is vancouver

RATM

—–
At this stage I could not agree more. YVR became impossible even for rather well-off (for their age group)
couples just starting out. Living deep in the burbs in a townhouse and commuting across town to work in choking traffic day-after-day in the monsoon winter rain would be completely soul-sucking. The cards are stacked against you (from absolutely no fault of your own except being born at the wrong time). If I was in the same position, and had a career that I could reasonably transport, I would escape YVR in a heartbeat. We just came back from visiting my inlaws in Okotoks, just outside of Calgary. Nice community, big houses, 1 hr to Kananasksis for hiking (without the explosion yet of ^%^^& tour buses from overseas), good skiing, and his kids are all doing well (in their 20s) and living nearby. My brother in law does not worry that his kids will have to all leave the city to start their own lives. In other words, it is still a city for local people, where different generations of a famiy can all live (if they chose) in relative proximity and follow their destiny. Long term it is a much easier life than trying to make a start in the world-class (sarcastic here) YVR that was bought and sold by developers, foreigners, speculators, and other monopoly players. Prices in YVR are coming down, but from such a lofty height that it may not matter so much.

When I returned to Canada in 1993 I had offers for jobs in YVR and Edmonton, and chose YVR at that time. If I was just starting out, I would not even bother applying for positions in Vancouver, as the quality of life for me be insufficient to overcome the key obstacles: extreme costs of housing (owning and renting), crazy traffic, and the erosion of community due to the rapid change in the city.

#71 Stan Brooks on 12.29.18 at 2:44 am

#43 NoName on 12.28.18 at 7:52 pm
Worst questions on interview where do you se your self in 5yrs from now. I always answer if i could see what i woud do 5 yrs from now i wou definitely be able to see me buying winning next week lotto ticket…

Click on this and se general mood od non rich canadians. Melancholy and dispare i sense…

http://probit.ca/recent-developments/december-2018-newsletter/

http://probit.ca/recent-developments/december-2018-newsletter/

———————————

That is very strange for such rich and wealthy society as the one that we currently live in which is comprised of rich, nice, beautiful, wealthy, calm and relaxed individuals, enjoying every aspect of modern life, culture and civilization.

People should stop complaining and enjoy all the goodies of freedom like pot, cold chilly wind in the winter etc. Do you want to live in North Korea or Venezuela?

============================

#2 Shawn Allen on 12.28.18 at 4:38 pm

I worked in the electricity industry for 29 years. Losses in Alberta from generator to meter were somewhere in the 3% to 5% range. Transmission and distribution together.

Since you seem to understand everything:

https://blog.schneider-electric.com/energy-management-energy-efficiency/2013/03/25/how-big-are-power-line-losses/

The overall losses between the power plant and consumers is then in the range between 8 and 15%.

Note also that it is very hard to adjust production capacity of many producers linked in a grid to consumption, specially in the hottest days so there are also always losses from energy produced that does not make it to the consumers.

#72 Stan Brooks on 12.29.18 at 3:35 am

Bureaucrats & politicians. They do not trade the markets. Myth. – Garth

Except here where the so called ‘housing market’ is driven primarily by all levels of government though many levers including private and public mortgage ‘insurance’ (a product that is uniquely Canadian and does not exists anywhere else in the world), driving basement dwelling (also unique Canadian product that does not exist anywhere else) into the stratosphere.

Hey, that is 1st grade mold worth paying for, along with the 2 square feet window allowing you to collect precious vitamin D in the winter.

Maybe we should start thinking about building multiple levels underground, under the basements in order to accommodate the thousands of billionaires, no the millions of billionaires who want to move here but can’t due to the shortage of land.

I am hearing Radon is not cancerous here so we can sell it at a premium. Utilities not included.

#73 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.29.18 at 5:53 am

@#8 Rudy McFoster
“Wouldn’t it be awesome to see Trudeau there in a Team Canada Jersey?”

****
Nah.
Rather see him conceding defeat on Election Night in Oct.

#74 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.29.18 at 6:08 am

@#30 Ustabe
“Remember it was very few who got rich off finding the actual gold in the 1800’s…but many got rich selling the shovels, providing the meals, making donkeys available…. ”

****

Well since you brought it up.
Donald Trumps grandfather originally immigrated from Germany to the Yukon during the late 1800’s gold rush.
Upon arriving, he realized most of the gold claims had been staked and the real money was…food, booze, lodging and …prostitution.
When he eventually sold out and left he went back to Germany a very rich man. A millionaire in today’s dollars.
Several years later he moved to New York with his family and invested in real estate….
Trump never mentions his Grandfathers’ original foray into North America to “seek his fortune” as an alleged Hotelier and Pimp.
Good to see the apple didnt fall far from the tree.

#75 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.29.18 at 6:16 am

@#72 Stan Brooks
“Maybe we should start thinking about building multiple levels underground, under the basements in order to accommodate the thousands of billionaires”

*****
Alas Stan.
Once again the millionaires and Billionaires have already beat you to the punch and thought of this….. “Iceberg Housing” in London…..

https://www.unbelievable-facts.com/2017/08/iceberg-homes.html

#76 Bottoms_Up on 12.29.18 at 6:33 am

What Garth said.

And, if you plan to have kids, you’ll likely want your mortgage well under $400k.

#77 Catalyst on 12.29.18 at 8:25 am

I’ve never understood the concept of bonds….If their main purpose is reduce volatility with a little yield, why not just have cashable GICs. The fact the par value fluctuates is enough to not make want them. I also think the premium of yield (bond yeild vs GIC yield) is way too low to justify it. If bonds paid 6% while GIC was 2% then maybe.

I also think that their place in the cap structure is often wildly overstated. How many times in a bankruptcy do bondholders actually get paid after all senior lenders and governments get their cut…

#78 not 1st on 12.29.18 at 8:36 am

Garth, ever notice that people never sell and take their money and run out of Vancouver and Toronto. Why is that.

Well because green preening and SJW shaming go hand in hand with living in those places. Its more than a place to live to them. It a progressive status symbol. Holier than thou. Sanctimonious. Just like our govt.

Cant move to Calgary or even the BC interior because I cant virtue signal from there and my silly immature views might actually be countered by someone else with another view point. Cant have that.

#79 NoName on 12.29.18 at 8:47 am

#71 Stan Brooks on 12.29.18 at 2:44 am

I would prefer Cuba… Opresive dictatorship countrys are cheap or very expensive to fly in and out, cuba is cheap.

And about that schnider group blog , at wath load and power factor they come up with those numbers?

Just imagine when everyone has electric car andthey are plugged in and charging what happends when upstream grid impedance. In not so distant future i can se more inline reactors and capacitor banks being sold to household preferably to those with electric cars…

125A 3f240v inline enclosed reactor with capacitor bank together maybe size of dishwasher.

Did i ever told you about my mishap with capacitor bank, i gues i didnt…

spark, bzzzzzz to the ground, spark foul language, this sould be discharged by now, foul language this foul language i am done for today.

Of course 100 cal/cm2 arc flash protective ppe was used. How about we talk about capacitor powered city busses.

#80 Rob on 12.29.18 at 8:48 am

KLNR

….and JT was??

#81 not 1st on 12.29.18 at 8:52 am

For crazyfox, seriously dude, you are enjoying the new cannabis legislation too much. Put it down.

To switch the world to the amount of renewables you advocate would send our emissions into the stratosphere if those things worry you. We would literally need millions of panels and windmills to make up for the concentrated energy that oil and gas provide. To make all that equipment would have to be forged in coal fired furnaces. Lithium is strip mined just like the sands and much more overburden has to be removed to find these small quantities. Deep concrete foundations are needed for windmills. The batteries will be so heavy and expensive and you will have to carry a dozen of them for backup, so vehicle weight will go up.

Wind and solar will eventually have to sit on farmland because those are the best places for it. Wow, what a concept. The best places for renewables happen to be where our food supply comes from. What to choose.

And after that is all done, because renewables are intermittent we have to then build fossil fuel backed generation to back up the renewables we built with fossil fuels because we don’t want to use fossil fuels anymore. Only a fanatic could come up with logic to support this.

And to cap off the insanity, the one fuel source we could have used was kneecapped by the greenies 30 yrs ago. Nuclear was the only chance we had of switching but now that’s not going to happen.

So its fossil fuels buddy and you better get used to it. Move up on higher land and buy some AC if you are so worried. Our society is about to add 2.5B more people. How are they going to buy solar panels with a 20 yr payback.

Plainly, you are just reading drivel on the net and not thinking.

#82 not 1st on 12.29.18 at 8:58 am

Alberta separation isn’t feasible for Alberta it initiate. That would be hard.

But there is another way. P*ss off Quebec first and let them go. And we can do that by cutting off our equalization welfare.

Then call up trump.

#83 Godth on 12.29.18 at 9:14 am

#66 Crazyfox
i have a book for you, i’ll give it to you – free.
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/23164.The_Hydrogen_Economy
would you like some ballard shares as well? https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/BLDP/ballard-power-systems/stock-price-history
is fusion still 20 yrs. away?

climate change and biodiversity loss aren’t a single issue problem. you’re very good at cherry picking though. carry on.

#84 Crazyfox on 12.29.18 at 9:40 am

#2 Shawn Allen on 12.28.18 at 4:38 pm

You are right Shawn.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_power_transmission

It’s estimated 6.5% was lost in transmission in the U.S. in 2007. Y’know, I’ve been saying 2/3 for 15 years and I don’t think anyone has ever challenged me on it unless memory fails. It wasn’t an intentional mistake. I heard it somewhere, thought it was true and didn’t fact check. Thanks for taking the time to correct me, I really don’t want to muddy this site up with bad facts.

60/40 are the likely loads in dense populations, 70/30, here too, I was talking about peakers after loads and missed it in the reread… the link speaks for itself:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaking_power_plant

“What was I saying yesterday about the sad state of affairs where experts are no longer trusted? and anyone can claim anything they want on the internet and often be believed. Sad.”

Try being me. You haven’t, I can tell but why would you right, so I’ll volunteer. I’m not looking to make mistakes on purpose. The wide topics over the last 12 years with the volume, I unintentionally still make mistakes and I can’t help but think that under the circumstances, most would and its easy to say to anyone, just let the experts talk? Take all the non experts out, censor, watch this blog go to a trickle, there’s only so many experts around and far fewer who wish to engage, watch it get boring without diversity, the hosts lose interest in time and ultimately watch it fail…. not that hard to fathom.

How many times have I been put down, you have no idea. Not saying I’m a victim, chose to be here but in blogging alone, put down for providing links, for being wrong, for unforced errors, for being right, for communicating anything at all, there is no end to it. How easy was it for you? Every morning I wake up to a new day, its like a reset button and thank God obviously as there has been much worthy of forgetting.

#85 Godth on 12.29.18 at 9:51 am

Crazyfox
China starts solid-state battery production, pushing energy density higher
https://electrek.co/2018/11/20/china-production-solid-state-batteries/
“I’d file this in “interesting development”, but it definitely doesn’t mean that solid-state is taking over just now.

Toyota, Fisker, Hyundai, BMW, and others all have big plans for the technology with targeted production from supposedly this year to 2030. Bosch had big plans for the technology and made significant investments for commercialization until it gave up on it earlier this year.”

china better build even more coal fired electrical generating capacity for all those cars. they better fire up the blast furnaces too. i bet there’ll be lots of plastics in those cars, they’ll likely have tires as well and drive on asphalt and concrete i’m betting.
Vaclav Smil – Drivers of environmental change: focus on energy transitions
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nJxmlNyu4sE&t=740s

#86 dharma bum on 12.29.18 at 10:01 am

#22 Ottawa Mike

Crooks have learned fast that Ottawa is open for business.
——————————————————————–

True.

Step 1: Take the firearms course then write the test to get an FAC (firearms acquisition certificate).

Step 2: Go out and buy an arsenal of rifles and shotguns (and plenty of ammo) at your local Bass Pro store.

Now, you’re ready for anything.

Sleep tight.

(You can always take up hunting to prevent boredom while waiting around for intruders to use those guns on.)

#87 not 1st on 12.29.18 at 10:11 am

Forget rates, forget the BoC, forget all that.

Plug your home town and province into the population pyramid calculator, then ask yourself if you should buy an over priced house or if you should even stay where you are.

Our most populous provinces are aging rapidly despite immigration. Who on earth is going to buy your 2 million dollar house in Toronto or Vancouver.

Our aging population will mean less consumer spending, not more. Add in extra taxation too. We wont add enough well off people to our population to make the difference so the TSX will suffer as well. Nobody is climbing into the middle class like Trudeau touts. Your investments are about to enter japan 2.0.

Alberta must separate to avoid this calamity. It and Sk are the only two provinces with the ability to replace their populations.

#88 Penny Henny on 12.29.18 at 10:12 am

#5 Musty Basement Dweller on 12.28.18 at 4:50 pm
Garth, or any of the steerage section members.. (very roughly) how did your theoretically balanced model portfolio perform for calendar 2018?
[email protected] (multi shaded green colored investment branch) got me a nice fat ZERO in the past year. (although past years have been more in the order of 6-10 %.
//////////////////////

I’m down about 4.5% for the year

#89 KLNR on 12.29.18 at 10:16 am

@#78 not 1st on 12.29.18 at 8:36 am
Garth, ever notice that people never sell and take their money and run out of Vancouver and Toronto. Why is that.

Well because green preening and SJW shaming go hand in hand with living in those places. Its more than a place to live to them. It a progressive status symbol. Holier than thou. Sanctimonious. Just like our govt.

Cant move to Calgary or even the BC interior because I cant virtue signal from there and my silly immature views might actually be countered by someone else with another view point. Cant have that.
____________________________

Generalize much?
Most of your comments on here are silly and immature lol

#90 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.29.18 at 10:19 am

@#81 not1st
Re Crazyfox
“you are just reading drivel on the net and not thinking.”

+++++
Screwed Canadian Millenial hath found another nom de plume?

#91 KLNR on 12.29.18 at 10:26 am

@#80 Rob on 12.29.18 at 8:48 am
KLNR

….and JT was??
___________________

Oh Rob, I was just pointing out how petty folks are.
for what its worth, scheer appears even less ready than JT was

#92 Ace Goodheart on 12.29.18 at 10:50 am

Millennial couple, having amassed 1.24 million through careful saving, financial planning and austerity, decide, with professional advice, to gut their TFSA and go into debt more than $500,000.00 to purchase a cottage:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/personal-finance/retirement/article-advice-to-frugal-couple-live-a-little/

The advice: “live a little”.

#93 Dissident on 12.29.18 at 10:52 am

Anyone who put money into the stock market as late as Sept 2017 hasn’t made any money to date. And 2019 is going to be an interesting year. You’ve got the infantile Trump (like a baby on crack) with a government shut-down, thousands of civil servants without pay, the Dems lawyering up to investigate him as of Jan 3
https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/28/politics/house-democrats-investigations-lawyers-hiring/index.html, and wobbly China talks, Brexit and the Mueller investigation still looming. I’d say even if January brings positive news for business earnings, it will be cancelled out by all the aforementioned factors. January will be flat, or any gains will be swiftly cancelled out by ensuing dramas and volatility, of which there will be plenty.

#94 Snowboarder on 12.29.18 at 10:54 am

There is no point in owning 40% bonds and having a mortgage at the same time.

A mortgage is essentially an inverse bond. They will lose money on the spread.

If this couple is going to buy a residence, they should go all equity with their portfolio.

Garth, you’re financially correct but psychologically wrong about home ownership. It’s a fundamental desire that is being exploited but that doesn’t mean it can be completely avoided. Rental properties are simply not as nice (or as secure) as a home you own. You likely haven’t rented in years, so take a look at what is actually available out there before you judge.

#95 Ace Goodheart on 12.29.18 at 10:59 am

Millennial couple, having amassed 1.24 million through careful saving, financial planning and austerity, decide, with professional advice, to gut their TFSA and go into debt more than $500,000.00 to purchase a cottage:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/personal-finance/retirement/article-advice-to-frugal-couple-live-a-little/

The advice: “live a little”.

My advice:

You’ll use the cottage at the most 8 weekends per year. Probably July and August.

You can rent a cottage for eight weekends, for about $1000.00 per weekend, so that is $8000.00 for the summer, renting wherever and whenever you want. Renting a cottage has the advantage that there is no maintenance required, you do not have to pay property taxes, and if something breaks, it is someone else’s problem. Also you are not responsible for a building that can be 2-3 hours’ drive away, located in an area that regularly experiences extreme weather events and can be completely inaccessible in the winter months.

Where to get the $8000.00?

Purchase hotel REITs, or a portfolio of REIT ETFs. They pay around 6-8% in distributions. So you’d need $100,000 to $120,000.00 or so invested, at 8%, and then just pay for the yearly cottage rentals from your distributions. Some of that could be held in your TFSA, meaning that you cottage “for free” every year, on money that you earn without paying any taxes.

I would not suggest to this couple to buy a cottage.

#96 Frank The Tank on 12.29.18 at 11:29 am

I have a friend who had a home and decided to sell and rent because of an “impending crash”. He regrets it completely. He regrets it not only because no crash came or is coming, but because he finds renting stressful. He’s married with three kids and just loathes renting.

Every situation is different, just sharing one tale.

#97 Musty Basement Dweller on 12.29.18 at 11:40 am

Many thanks to all the blog dogs who answered my ZERO returns question today on the blog. It’s great to hear of the other experiences -much appreciated!

#98 MF on 12.29.18 at 12:15 pm

#78 not 1st on 12.29.18

…..Or how about because those cities are desirable places to live?

Do you actually know any humans in these cities are so you just read online crap all day?

MF

#99 Vampire studies on 12.29.18 at 12:22 pm

Thanks [email protected] I think I see a “B” lever on the
untaped bars, and a front brake, but no rear. Also toeclips on one pedal only. These may be a good options for riding a fixie in the city. Don’t recognize the decal, but not any kind of expert on that.

No ride for me today, maybe tomorrow.

#100 Shawn Allen on 12.29.18 at 12:43 pm

CrazyFox is not so crazy

84 Crazyfox on 12.29.18 at 9:40 am responded

#2 Shawn Allen on 12.28.18 at 4:38 pm

You are right Shawn.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_power_transmission

It’s estimated 6.5% was lost in transmission in the U.S. in 2007. Y’know, I’ve been saying 2/3 for 15 years and I don’t think anyone has ever challenged me on it unless memory fails. It wasn’t an intentional mistake. I heard it somewhere, thought it was true and didn’t fact check. Thanks for taking the time to correct me, I really don’t want to muddy this site up with bad facts.

****************************************
Wow, a polite and even thankful response when I challenged / corrected the 2/3 power loss claim.

While commenting like an A$$ is entertaining a lot of commenters could do themselves a favor and be a lot more polite.

As to the 2/3 losses Crazyfox read about it was probably referring to the loss of energy from the fuel source to the end user. Most of the energy in coal or natural gas is lost as heat at the generation plant before it gets turned into electricity.

I had not followed CrazyFox about renewables. No real opinion. But solid state batteries sound interesting.

#101 akashic record on 12.29.18 at 12:46 pm

#61 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.28.18 at 11:30 pm

#119 akashic record on 12.28.18 at 3:35 pm
#100 MF on 12.28.18 at 11:54 am

85 not 1st on 12.28.18

Dual citizenship (citizens of convenience) should be abolished.

Just the opposite… a global citizenship for everyone, valid in every single country on the planet, to be able to pick the best place for whatever you plan to do with at different stages with your life.

If capital can do it – why not people?

Until then everyone should have two or three.
———–
Remember the 20,000 Lebanese Canadian Dual Citizens who were airlifted out of Lebanon at great expense to the Canadian taxpayer.
The minute the conflict ceased, most of them returned to Lebanon.
Is that what you have in mind?

It seems like there are different classes of Canadian citizenship.

When I got mine we were told black and white: “if you go back to your old country, you deal with it, don’t count on Canada”.

It was a fair deal. That’s what I had in my mind.

#102 akashic record on 12.29.18 at 1:17 pm

64 Nonplused on 12.28.18 at 11:50 pm

#52 akashic record

“How are humans going to continue to ask the 3 most important questions (who we are, where are we coming from, where do we go) if we can’t ask what someone got for Christmas?”

Those 3 questions are important, but you have to solve them on your own. And they don’t have anything to do with what I gave my kids for Christmas, which can be motivated by a number of factors, including ability to do so.

If you want to know who we are, where we came from, and where we are going I suggest you talk to a monk or a priest and leave the Christmas score card out of it.

My son got a new computer because he was using mine and carrying it off to school, and I wanted it back. I decided that my collage kids should get the same $ amount to be fair. It was a lot of money. But it isn’t anybody else’s business. There are going to be kids, even in the extended family, that didn’t get a new computer. Some of the kids on the soccer team are Muslim of Jewish and they probably didn’t get any presents at all (not everybody observes Christian traditions). So you don’t talk about it. And if you don’t talk about it, you don’t want to be asked about it. It’s common courtesy.

My in-law asked me today what I got for Christmas and I told him a gold plated 911. That stopped the conversation completely even though I got a gold plated 911. Thanks wifey!

You miss the point entirely.

Some people are unimaginably poor, others are billionaires. Some are Christians, some are Jews, Muslims, etc.

People should be secure enough in their own skin, whatever that skin is.

Talking about Christmas present, Hannukah, etc. is the most normal thing if people happen to live together, play on the same team.

If not – what’s the point of living together, at all?

If you got a gold plated 911, why not let everybody be happy for you.

#103 joblo on 12.29.18 at 1:20 pm

Albexit:
“Will. Never. Happen.” – Garth

Maybe, but folks I know in berta r pretty angry.
Jason Kenny can set up own taxation system ala Quebec and send crumbs to Feds
or the electoral system needs fixin cuz votin makes no difference.

#104 Lorne on 12.29.18 at 1:31 pm

#88 Penny Henny on 12.29.18 at 10:12 am
#5 Musty Basement Dweller on 12.28.18 at 4:50 pm
Garth, or any of the steerage section members.. (very roughly) how did your theoretically balanced model portfolio perform for calendar 2018?
[email protected] (multi shaded green colored investment branch) got me a nice fat ZERO in the past year. (although past years have been more in the order of 6-10 %.
//////////////////////

I’m down about 4.5% for the year
…….
My 40/60 is down about 3.4%

#105 Stan Brooks on 12.29.18 at 1:39 pm


#75 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.29.18 at 6:16 am
@#72 Stan Brooks
“Maybe we should start thinking about building multiple levels underground, under the basements in order to accommodate the thousands of billionaires”

*****
Alas Stan.
Once again the millionaires and Billionaires have already beat you to the punch and thought of this….. “Iceberg Housing” in London…..

https://www.unbelievable-facts.com/2017/08/iceberg-homes.html

These are underground parts of mansions – swimming pools, bowling alleys, etc. garages, even car museums.
Rich people want their own facilities in space limited city with huge density, one of the 2 true world class cities and financial capitals at the same time.

It has nothing to do with plain Canadian molded dungeons called basements, where you can’t stand but have to bend, 5 people share a bathroom, no washroom (use napkins) and have a windowless cell/bathroom of 7×7 feet.

If you want to compare, compare with Hong Kong, I am hearing it’s density is the same as that of Canada./sarcasm off

#106 not 1st on 12.29.18 at 1:53 pm

#89 KLNR on 12.29.18 at 10:16 am
____________________________
Generalize much?
Most of your comments on here are silly and immature lol

—–

Bro if you think Canada is fine and all is well, the kool aid must be something else.

Smart money is exiting and not planning on coming back.

#107 When Will They Raise Rates? on 12.29.18 at 1:56 pm

#101 akashic record on 12.29.18 at 12:46 pm

#61 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.28.18 at 11:30 pm

#119 akashic record on 12.28.18 at 3:35 pm
#100 MF on 12.28.18 at 11:54 am

85 not 1st on 12.28.18

Dual citizenship (citizens of convenience) should be abolished.

Just the opposite… a global citizenship for everyone, valid in every single country on the planet, to be able to pick the best place for whatever you plan to do with at different stages with your life.

If capital can do it – why not people?

Until then everyone should have two or three.
———–
Remember the 20,000 Lebanese Canadian Dual Citizens who were airlifted out of Lebanon at great expense to the Canadian taxpayer.
The minute the conflict ceased, most of them returned to Lebanon.
Is that what you have in mind?

It seems like there are different classes of Canadian citizenship.

When I got mine we were told black and white: “if you go back to your old country, you deal with it, don’t count on Canada”.

It was a fair deal. That’s what I had in my mind.
—————————————————————————————

Angela Merkel: Nation States Must “Give Up Sovereignty” To New World Order

“There were [politicians] who believed that they could decide when these agreements are no longer valid because they are representing The People But the people … are not a group who define themselves as the [German] people.” – Angela Merkel

“Nation states must today be prepared to give up their sovereignty”, according to German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who told an audience in Berlin that sovereign nation states must not listen to the will of their citizens when it comes to questions of immigration, borders, or even sovereignty.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12-27/angela-merkel-nation-states-must-give-sovereignty-new-world-order

————————–

I can’t even believe we’re actually having this conversation!

This was the mother of all “conspiracy theory” back in the late 90’s… People who foresaw this were labeled “nuts”, literally “mentally ill”.

Now you’re fighting to make it happen, but what you don’t understand is what happens next…

#108 AGuyInVancouver on 12.29.18 at 2:01 pm

#78 not 1st on 12.29.18 at 8:36 am
Garth, ever notice that people never sell and take their money and run out of Vancouver and Toronto. Why is that.

Well because green preening and SJW shaming go hand in hand with living in those places. Its more than a place to live to them. It a progressive status symbol. Holier than thou. Sanctimonious. Just like our govt.

Cant move to Calgary or even the BC interior because I cant virtue signal from there and my silly immature views might actually be countered by someone else with another view point. Cant have that.
_ _ _
I would never leave Vancouver for Calgary because of the dung brown winter landscape, the distance from the ocean and the insanity of snow in the summer months.

The fact that it survives by peddling a planet-destroying product is the icing on the cake.

#109 Blacksheep on 12.29.18 at 2:01 pm

Shawn # 11,

“The 1949 United Nations declaration said citizens should be free to move anywhere within a country’s borders.”
———————-
Sooo….lets say I’m a petty thief, that has a wrap sheet a mile long, been in and out of jails and in general,
just a blight on society.

OK.

I currently live in BC, but want to move to province ‘X’.

As a Canadian citizen, my right to live anywhere I like inside of Canada, regardless of my criminal history, is protected.
————————-
Shawn # 11,

“Soon it will be time to update that to anywhere on earth.”
—————————-
Meaning, you believe a criminal like myself, that has shown a clear history of being nothing but a legal liability and a burden on society, should have the ‘UN sanctioned’ right to legally relocate anywhere in the world I choose?

And whatever sovereign nation I chose to move to, forfeits the legal right to ‘screen for’ and refuse, potential A-holes like myself, from becoming new citizens, in their country?

You know, just like sovereign nations, currently do?

Shawn, you provide level headed, knowledgeable and often helpful content to the blog on a daily basis, to build equity in your brand recognition and the trust of the readership /Dogs.

But It’s your pro global governance / banker, usually between the paragraphs little gems like this one, that I have read over and over, that has me actually questioning whether some of your / these writings are that of propaganda generating AI sometimes.

Yes, it’s that obvious…

#110 Shawn Allen on 12.29.18 at 2:08 pm

Dividend Tax Credit Strangeness

The Dividend tax credit is designed to avoid double taxation as earnings of Canadian companies have already been taxes at the corporate level. It’s generous because it assumes companies pay at the statutory tax rate when in fact they often pay way below that.

Even stranger, it seems to allow Canadian companies with extensive foreign operations to pay out these tax-advantaged dividends just as if they earned the money and paid the tax in Canada. Nice deal for Canadian dividend investors. Not so nice for the rest of the tax payers that have to make up the difference.

This country is very much in need of a Royal Commission on income tax fairness.

#111 Deplorable Dude on 12.29.18 at 2:09 pm

#59 Billy “B.S – Care to share the 15 holdings? (did not think so)”

Here ya go…..look it up yourself if you don’t believe me.

Holdings with their 2018 % dividend increase …

TD 11.6%, NA 8.3%, BNS 3.8%, RY 7.7%, FTS 5.9%, EMA 4%, AQN 10%, CPX 7.2%, CU 9.8%, ENB 10%, IPL 1.8%, CNQ 21%, BIP-UN 8.4%, BCE 5.2%, T 7.9%

For my particular portfolio weightings with the dividends dripped for reinvestment, that equates to a 15.87% income increase through 2018.

#112 Stan Brooks on 12.29.18 at 2:11 pm


https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/canadian-employers-struggling-find-talent-tight-labour-market-140020586.html

The most movement is likely to occur in IT. Demand at tech companies continues to outpace the supply of skilled candidates. And yet, IT employees are the least likely to call their current salary competitive.

No pay, no talent, but hey, the owners of the place will give you a 100 years interest only mortgage and sell you the ‘culture’ and a ‘lifestyle’.

#113 Fish on 12.29.18 at 2:18 pm

Job cuts ahead: Layoff protection for Manitoba’s civil servants about to end

Premier Brian Pallister says he is not planning any large-scale layoffs
Steve Lambert · The Canadian Press · Posted: Dec 29, 2018 9:36 AM CT | Last Updated: 3 hours ago

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba

#114 Millennial Couple On The Go on 12.29.18 at 2:40 pm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j1bbrtzJVZ4
They sold everything to sail the world, and they have no clue what to do. They are travelling down the Mississippi River heading for Mobile. They never realized that things close up for the winter, and are all alone with out heat fighting the storms. They bought a dinghy with a 2.5 HP engine that is useless, and have been following this reality drama. I bet where they are have ran out of fuel, and they have no sails because all was at great expensive sent to Mobile.

#115 KLNR on 12.29.18 at 2:54 pm

@#106 not 1st on 12.29.18 at 1:53 pm
#89 KLNR on 12.29.18 at 10:16 am

Bro if you think Canada is fine and all is well, the kool aid must be something else.

Smart money is exiting and not planning on coming back.
————————————————————-

LOL, if you say so bro.
Where do you come up with this BS?

#116 Shawn Allen on 12.29.18 at 3:04 pm

Blacksheep at 109

You are right I exaggerate when I say ANYONE should have the right to move anyplace on the planet. There have to be some restrictions such as for criminals as you say. But in general people are people and should have rights.

Why is it fair that New York State has zero power to prevent poor people from anywhere in the U.S. from moving in but that the U.S. should be allowed to block all immigration if it happens to feel like it? If the U.S. is too harsh on immigration, the rest of the world should do what it can to shun them.

Criminals should of course be dealt with (fairly) wherever they live.

If North Americans or Europeans don’t want to be overran by poor hordes then I’d suggest working to make conditions better in the poor countries is a better long term solution than walls and more defensible morally.

Ultimately humans should be interested in bettering the life of humans everywhere.

As for my motivation in posting here. It’s a bit of an addiction. Also I have a pile of business and investment education and I like to think I am contributing positively to the discussion.

#117 TurnerNation on 12.29.18 at 3:09 pm

#22 OttawaMike same drill in TO if you read the comments here. Thieves can steal at will. So why are we standing in line paying? We realize the system would collapse if we did not. Like a 3rd World country.
Maybe it will.

I can’t decide who is lazier these days, cops or criminals.
Mick Jag. sang a similar line back in late 60. Sympathy for the.

Not only at LCBO too:

https://old.reddit.com/r/toronto/comments/aahovt/lcbo_thefts_surge_in_toronto_often_as_staff_stand/

#118 TurnerNation on 12.29.18 at 3:14 pm

#22 And Chief BordelEAU you said? Someone pointed out we also are being ruled right now by a
M. GarnEAU
a TrudEAU
and a B. MornEAU

Eau in French of course means Water.

Age of Aquarius much? Not my thing tho. Glug glug

#119 TurnerNation on 12.29.18 at 3:17 pm

#20 DON – “Csis” changed their name and specifically removed the word Canada from it, it has been noted.
Speaks volumes. Just another anonymous global alphabet agency they are now.

#120 Remembrancer on 12.29.18 at 3:27 pm

#119 TurnerNation on 12.29.18 at 3:17 pm
#20 DON – “Csis” changed their name and specifically removed the word Canada from it, it has been noted.
Speaks volumes. Just another anonymous global alphabet agency they are now.
—————————————————–
Huh?
First it’s Canadian not Canada – today just like when they took over from the horsemen who were (caught) burning too many barns back in the day…

https://www.canada.ca/en/security-intelligence-service.html#wb-cont

#121 TurnerNation on 12.29.18 at 6:49 pm

#120 also see this. They see all you do, just an alphabet stew over you.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communications_Security_Establishment

#122 Crazyfox on 12.30.18 at 3:29 am

#69 NoName on 12.29.18 at 1:09 am

Luddite… dumb as a sack of hammers… referring to me I thought, that didn’t go over well either. :)

I agree with you with carbon taxes. Its no longer necessary, market forces will take care of our environmental problem. Where government can make a big difference is with regulations and subsidies still, I think anyway but a tax is no longer necessary at this point. Possibly even do more harm than good with oil, I’ll get into that later.

It was challenging to look into the unknown and try to refine what I’ve learned for this site but I’m really, really glad that I did, warts and all and I’m not done. This is a bone you don’t give up on. To realize the tech that’s coming in EV’s, autonomous, cloud tech and SSB’s and rooftop solar, solar is already cheap enough in lower latitudes now with inferior Lithium Ion storage to pay for itself today and solar panels are poised to get 17% cheaper for 2019. Batteries were always the weak link with off grid solar and wind production/consumption and with SSB’s coming in the early 20’s, I see tremendous opportunities in solar rooftops within 5 years.

If I was a younger man today, I would become an electrician and go full bore into EV charge station installs and solar panel/roof installations or sales even now its viable. This is the future, even in higher latitude Canada!

You really challenged me when you brought up solar scaling and I’m glad you did. Thanks!

#81 not 1st on 12.29.18 at 8:52 am

As they say, time will tell.

#121 DON on 12.28.18 at 3:49 pm

Thanks Don.

#85 Godth on 12.29.18 at 9:51 am

Elecktek has promise but Sakti3 was claiming 400 Wh/Kg in 2014. That’s why Prologium boasting 537 Wh/L with Lithium solid state and 20% volume for cooling still 50% smaller, 30% lighter and 30% cheaper than Tesla’s Model 3 batteries caught my eye. That’s double charging capacity and half the size and they are talking 700’s? I’m still not a big fan of Lithium even Lithium solid state which this is… but then so is Quantum Scape. I think there are still heating/cooling issues that need to be worked out but the numbers are compelling and Prologium says they are ready for mass production today.

It all remains to be seen who’s ahead. Asia, I presume, would be a difficult space to invest in individual stocks, I wouldn’t try it. Europe is better. Dyson is a dark horse and there are startups that can surprise as well as China but I think Volkswagen will lead. Ford is collaborating with VW with EV’s now for a reason. What could be argued as the 2 best incumbent car makers in the world huddling up together… I believe SSB’s are behind it. The media link mentions 2025 as a timeline to market but with Ford in there, 2022… 2023… time will tell.

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/wv-quantumscape-investment#gs.vYnkGmQ

#100 Shawn Allen on 12.29.18 at 12:43 pm

Thanks for the kind words Shawn, cheers.

#123 Gravy Train on 12.30.18 at 9:27 am

#110 Shawn Allen on 12.29.18 at 2:08 pm
“This country is very much in need of a Royal Commission on income tax fairness.”. It’s already been done. Read up, and report back to us! Oh—and please don’t suggest new ways for the federal government to spend our money! :)
https://digitalcommons.law.yale.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3423&context=fss_papers
http://publications.gc.ca/site/eng/9.699807/publication.html
http://publications.gc.ca/site/eng/9.699808/publication.html
http://publications.gc.ca/site/eng/9.699804/publication.html
http://publications.gc.ca/site/eng/9.699806/publication.html
http://publications.gc.ca/site/eng/9.699895/publication.html
http://publications.gc.ca/site/eng/9.699897/publication.html
http://publications.gc.ca/site/eng/9.699898/publication.html

#124 NotLegalAdvice on 12.31.18 at 8:32 am

Thanks for this post Garth, dude above and I are in similar situations. I have about 180k saved and invested and no debt.

According to the rule of 90, 62 percent of my net worth should be in real estate. I want to own a property to live in for over a 10 year period.

Houses have hit around 850k in the GTA for where I would like to own.

The Mrs. and I make 150k a year combined.

Do you think we should also put the 5 percent down on the first 500k and then 10 percent on the remainder 350k and keep the rest invested?

The 30k I assume is for insurance payments for not giving the 20 percent down?