– Sandra Mueller: ‘Dog People’
Peter worked for 32 years in the same shop. Then, at 61, laid off. “Man,” he told me three months ago, “I’m actually glad this is coming to an end.” But there was a silver lining. He could commute three decades of pension contributions, moving them from a company plan that appeared to be on shaky ground into his own hands. Just over six hundred grand. Sweet.
As with most pension pay-outs, this one involved roughly half being rolled over into a tax-free retirement account and the rest payable as cash – added to his income, and taxed as such. Bummer. Given the new T2 uber-tax bracket for ‘rich’ people, it’s a big hit. But Pete can defer this to 2019, plus he has a pile of accumulated RRSP room to help mitigate the theft. The good news is instead of taking monthly payments that are 100% taxable for the rest of his life from a pension plan that might run into trouble and cut benefits, he’s now in control of his own income. Control is always good. Especially these days.
But this week P gave me a shout. “Nervous,” he said. “I want to hold off investing the money because markets have gone down.” But you have no monthly income from the funds, I said. And he replied, “I’ll just live off the cash for a while – maybe a year – until things start going up again.”
Pete was a machine shop guy his whole life. Not a financial dude. Understandably, he’s heavily influenced by headlines and peers. Both are telling him that investing his money currently is a dangerous thing. He’s so concerned that he’d rather eat into his precious retirement capital, increasing the odds he’ll eventually run out of money.
So let’s dig into this a bit. Is this a rational decision?
If you believe the guys on the shop floor, and the Internet, maybe. If you think about it, not so much.
First the economic news. On Friday came word Canada’s economy is rocking. Growth was the fastest in half a year, propelled by busier factories. Even the oil and gas business expanded. Here’s the summary:
The world’s 10th largest economy is running close to full speed and forecasters are predicting growth will remain close to a 2 percent annualized pace between October and December. Unemployment is at record lows and some companies have reported they are struggling to fill new orders with their existing capacity.
Ditto in the States. Economic growth is robust, as are corporate profits. Inflation is tame and there’s virtual full employment – the best jobs situation since people were wearing beehive hairdos instead of manbuns. This is despite the fact the Fed has raised interest rates ten times. It’s impressive.
So why have stock markets been in a funk?
Let’s remember the S&P 500 – the benchmark American index – hit 19 separate, all-time highs during 2018. Over the last two years it gained almost 25%. Corporate profits swelled by double digits. Volatility was low. Dividends increased. Investors rubbed their tummies.
So from an historic pinnacle – when financial guys worried that investors had pushed stock values too high relative to profits – markets have come down about 15%. Valuations are back into historic norms. The froth was blown off. Yes, corrections are good. They keep us from having worse events.
Corrections are also normal. They usually come about once a year, and typically last around two months. Eighty per cent of the time, they don’t turn into a longer downturn. But when a bear market develops (20% losses, lasting about eight months on average), it’s always been followed by a surge of buying which leads to a new high. So best to ignore them all. Even when you’re heading into retirement.
But, as Pete wanted to know, why the sell-off now?
The answer is simple: current events. Trump vs the rest of the world regarding trade. Brexit. French riots. A slowdown in China. Meng and Huawei. Mattis. Mueller. The Fed raising rates and jacking the US$. Oil funk. And the shutdown tonight in Washington. We now live in a world when the 24-hour news cycle has a profound effect on retail investors. Humans being humans (and therefore inherently flawed) we get excited by things rising in value and run scared when they fall. We love to pay too much when we buy – because stuff will always go up – and take a loss when we sell – because the stuff is going to zero.
All this has caused more volatility of late. That’s measured by the Vix, which provides a handy guide to how animal spirits affect markets. That index hit 28 this week – a big jump – but far off the 60 it achieved back in 2008. In fact, here’s the record for the past decade:
Volatility is up, but far from a record
Click to enlarge
So, markets have dropped from all-time highs. Assets that have fallen in value are now available at more reasonable prices than six months ago. History tells us because the world expands far more than it contracts (recessions are not the norm) that financial markets rise 75% of the time. And we know economic indicators have been so solid over the last few years that central banks have ratcheted rates higher. Odds are those guys know more about where we’re headed than Pete. Or you. Or me.
But this never prevents know-it-alls from trying to make money or gain attention by scaring people with dire predictions. In fact the graph below from the Visual Capitalist summarizes some of the calls for stockageddon over the past few years. Every one was wrong. Every investor who heeded them suffered. And without exception, humans are better off staying invested, ignoring the noise, and living their lives.
And, so much for the financial experts...
Click to enlarge
Back to Pete. Sure, he can live off his cash, eat it up and wait for the price of a basket of assets – equity ETFs, preferreds, REITs etc. – to become more expensive. That may be emotionally satisfying, but not so prudent. The greatest threat most people face is running out of money. And the greatest reason that happens is our own fallibility.
Have faith, not fear. You’ll live longer.
136 comments ↓
Now isn’t that strange. Here’s someone who doesn’t want to buy stocks or equity ETFs when they are on sale, and yet 5 days from now shopping malls will be jam packed with people frantically trying to get good deals with Boxing Day sales. Yes, truth really is stranger than fiction.
GREAT!!!!
TRUDEAU is OK with getting the whole country HIGH on weed.
But he can’t get a pipeline built, chases away the Arabs from General Dynamics, and let’s GM get away with murder. Bombardier get s governmentt cheese and fires everyone.
Oh how our Country’s Leadership is so great….
TRUDEAU IS FAKE NEWS!!!!!
What hurts even more is increasing my portfolio by 1% every 15 days and watching it disappear. That’s investing, suck it up buttercup. Nothing moves up in a straight line. Some years you feel like you’re on top of the world. Some years you feel like you’re in the gutter. If you know why you’re investing and have clear goals you won’t worry too much.
Ouch, down 40k on a fully balanced 60/40 portfolio of 500K without today’s flame out. Down over 8 percent, and back in early 2017 territory now.
That 40k growth took two years to get there during a great economic boon for the US. The gains from the ‘Trump Rally’ from November 2017 have pretty much been wiped out.
Now we see rates increases are being neutered, many corporations are buying back their own shares rather than investing, and daily global turmoil is weighing down the markets.
Are there really any conditions in the foreseable future that will goose the market and wipe out these paper loses?
The shift from red to black for portfolios in 2009 following the great financial crisis took place because of quantitative easing and the flow of cheap credit. With the punch bowl being withdrawn, what stimulus will there be for the market?
“We now live in a world when the 24-hour news cycle has a profound effect on retail investors. Humans being humans (and therefore inherently flawed) we get excited by things rising in value and run scared when they fall.”
-Ironically, the online world has also contributed a lot to the misinformation out there. Each forum with its own particular theme will attract a person with similar viewpoints in aggregate.
The forums can become a soundboard, where “everyone” believes a certain view, which then gets normalized.
Fear, misinformation, BS conspiracy theories and the like spread like crazy these days. Hence the “fear” P is hearing from his friends.
Anyone who has trekked through the comments of forums can see the filth mankind is composed of. I always thought retail investors had negligible influence on the markets, but if they have more than that then expect lots of volatility moving forward.
BTW, here’s an example of this in action:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/thenational/national-today-newsletter-measles-outbreaks-1.4950383
“Measles outbreaks now a global problem thanks to anti-vaxxers”
MF
This time it’s different Garth.
Sorry.
It will be the first time. – Garth
From personal experience dealing with guys like this, sometimes safety keeps them from seeing the bigger picture.
But what plan was it? Why was it shaky? Even most target benefit union plans are reasonably good.
From Feb 2018 but sounds about right.
https://twitter.com/RitholtzWealth/status/961562760575205376/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E961562760575205376&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.marketwatch.com%2Fstory%2Fpanicked-about-a-stock-market-crash-what-you-need-to-remember-can-fit-on-a-single-notecard-2018-02-08
Thanks Garth for the tips a week ago.
Today I bought tons of TD.PF.K. So happy about the 8.9 %. I guess, I will never thank you enough.
Keep up the great job by educating us and Happy Holidays !!!
all that $money$ stuff dont matter to Santa
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/norad-to-continue-tracking-santa-if-government-shuts-down/ar-BBRhp7n?ocid=spartandhp
I admitted long ago as “Westcdn” that I was an introvert and contrarian. I have beaten the horse of Albertan alienation long enough – the axe has been ground enough to look like a club. I listened to retorts and I am not willing to die on this hill. There is little to none support for my views – time to move on because this cowboy is not going to change minds although I tried. I can be hot bloodied when angered but today is not the time. No more quote the raven.
So now I will devote more effort into the topic of climate change. Guess where I stand with my contrarian nature. I am looking forward to being schooled and interjecting my views. I think I will start with heavy fuels like diesel and kerosene. Hmm, I didn’t intent to post so early…
This life we live nowadays. It’s not life, it’s stagnation death-in-life. Look at all these bloody houses and the meaningless people inside them. Sometimes I think we’re all corpses. Just rotting upright.
I hope you’re right Garth. Self-off sustained so far but economic fundamentals very strong both sides of the border, the latter wins in the end.
The Machinist picked the right guy for advice.
Only fear I have is that we create a made in Canada recession due to RE values dropping. Mild so far but that leads to harsh as always. There has never been a soft landing.
Good post Garth, thanks.
TSX officially below 14,000. Over the 70 day period from Oct. 10th–Dec. 21st TSX has collapsed from 16,200 to 13,935; a 14 percent plunge, despite a generally robust economy (except for natural resources, which seems to drive the market). My decision in August to take out a HISA with the orange people is looking really good at the moment. Focus on making extra $$$ from taking on side jobs and being frugal with purchases…
“…to help mitigate the theft”
Jesus.
most investors dont own the sp 500, they own diversified junk, weed stocks, junior resource stuff.
i find most people are totally over diversified, like 10 funds with like 1500 individual shareholdings or my buddy who has seen his weed stock go up 300 percent and now down 66 percent. which for you math fans out there is even.
people are assuming volatility, and not being properly compensated for the risk they are assuming. The watch the ride go up and then down, and most people end up with the dividend only. long term investing means most people dont get ahead they maintain their purchasing power with the dividend and flat capital gain.
i am trying to find returns of every individual stock on the tsx, (except the ultra small junk) and how they individually have done not the market weighed return of the index. I suspect its really lousy returns,
reitmans, freshii, hudson bay, and hundreds of others.
yes, 1% of stocks will make you rich, in Canada probably .1%, i am waiting for dec 31st to start calculating real returns, real , no fancy graphs etc. i can name you 100 stocks on tsx that have returned nothing over 5 years, 10 years, nothing, actually really really down.
some are even, most, and some are up, a little and very very few have done reasonably.
just my viewpoint. public market valuations at 15 times earnings are retail pricing. you can buy private market companies for less than 1. there out there.
its about risk reward, and honestly i dont understand why a risk free return is 4% on 5 year gic, why would i want to go on some risk ride if i am not making at least 20-25% year, every year, in cash
yes no liquidity, but the cash makes up for it. and the much better valuation reduces the risk.
What pushed up stocks since end of 2007?
Let’s see at end of 2007 (before the financial crisis), S&P 500 was at 1468 and GAAP earnings for 2007 came in at $66.18 for a trailing GAAP P/E of 22.2 which reflects the optimism of that time as the financial crisis was then still just a gleam in the eyes of the “Big Shorts” boys.
If 2018 ends with S&P 500 at today’s close of 2417 and if GAAP earnings when reported come in at the expected $130 (based on Q3 actuals plus Q4 expected) then today’s P/E is 18.6 reflecting less optimism than 2007.
Since the P/E is down, it is the case that earnings growth more than explains all of the rise in the S&P 500 from the end of 2007.
Lower interest rates in theory should drive up the P/E ratio. They also goose corporate earnings somewhat.
Stock buybacks usually increase earnings per share but that is not guaranteed.
Obviously one couple pick different dates. I picked just prior to the financial crisis.
In the last 21 years going back to end of 1998 the trailing GAAP P/E has mostly been 20 or higher. It was under 20 at the end of 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013 as earnings surged after the financial crisis and the market still reflected caution in those years. Also under 20 at end of 2005 and 2006. The GAAP P?E soared to 61 at the end of 2008 not becasue of optmiism but becasue earnings dropped way down due to financial crisis losses.
At today’s 18.6, the trailing GAAP P/E is below the average of the past 30 or more years but a little above its all time average (going back to 1949) which is 17.0 (excluding the outlier 61 in 2018).
Best time to buy fundamentally strong financial assets is when they are undervalued and as a result the yield they provide goes higher. So for every dollar you invest you’re getting more dividend or distribution than if you buy when they go back up.
By waiting until markets rise to invest, Pete gets hit twice. One he chews up part of his asset base and two when he finally decides to invest it’s likely to be at a lower yield whether he goes for dividend paying ETFs or stocks.
Better to start buying in and spreading out the buy in by a few months as nobody can predict the bottom.
But he should do the math on what will happen if say he gets $500k after taxes invested yielding say 5% giving him $25k cash flow a year now plus whatever he gets from CPP and OAS in a few years, vs eating up his cash pile and investing maybe $468k at a 4% yield if he invests after markets bounce back in a year giving him $18.7k. Theoretically he could be setting himself up for a $6k reduction in annual cash flow. Getting a big chunk of cash right when markets have declined significantly may be fortune smiling on him.
I’ve got a spreadsheet up that can help people see what happens based on what they save for retirement and by playing around with the numbers you can test various scenarios. https://smartersquirrel.com/how-much-do-you-need-to-retire
who knows but as Warren says, “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.” warren buffet
A lot of mistakes will be made in this part of the cycle. Real estate is just the first phase.
Pete could consider an Income Portfolio
Sounds like Pete has over $500k after paying taxes on his commuted pension. $300k in RSP and say $200 in taxable (and he likely has TFSA room)
Recent declines in pref shares and various dividend shares have provided an opportunity that has not existed for a long time to put together a portfolio with cash yields of around 5%. He could do that and take out $25k a year safe in the knowledge that he never has to sell any shares. He presumably can take CPP early. His tax bill bill will be pretty low. It’s not luxury but it’s not bad. He can also grab another job even part time.
Garth does not like suggesting individual equities like banks so looking at some ETFs:
CPD is yielding 5.3%
XRE capped REIT ETF is yielding 5.2%
Vanguard REIT VRE is at 3.6%
CBO the laddered 1-5 year corporate bond ETF has a yield to maturity of 3.0%
XFN capped Financials 3.8%
CDZ dividend aristocrats is at 5.1%.
So looks like close to 5% could be done but this is 100% Canadian. This would be cash yield no need to sell any shares and overtime these dividends would almost certainly rise.
I am sure there are tons of other approaches and ETFs. And JSS could show us at least 6% with individual equities but that is riskier.
The point being that today the market is quite suddenly serving up an unusable ability to get a high cash yield portfolio.
Obviously Pete should seek professional advice. Oh, and he should actually listen to it.
#19 SmarterSquirrel
Great link, thanks.
Yield is where it’s at for those of us suffering from creeping rigamortis. 4% is a reasonable distribution annually across the board. That ain’t a bad chunk of dough.
All that ill gotten booty can be withdrawn or reinvested depending on ones situation and the portfolio can continue to grow regardless.
The day to day market fluctuations have little meaning with this investing approach.
Pete. BUY LOW!
Pssst. That is now.
First time poster. Starting following in 2009 when squirrel recipes were the norm and took comfort in reading how “2008 isn’t coming back”.
Well, it’s back. Maybe this is just a 1 week/month event but I never thought I’d be seeing headlines like this ever again…
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/21/us-stocks-set-for-lower-week-after-fed-decision-government-shutdown-fears.html
https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/dow-sp-500-having-worst-month-since-1931-as-grinch-hits-wall-st
Good grief. In 2008 markets shed 55%. Today we are down 15%. Get a grip. As I wrote, we are our own worst enemies. – Garth
I am taking another one year gic at 3.1 % with the orange bank today.
And next year I hope the 5 year gic is at 4 % .
You don’t need to be fully invested in the market.
My dividend producing stocks still provide the same cash flow
And my lame mutual funds didn’t crater that much .
No worries here .
Friend of mine retired 3 years ago and passed away last Saturday – don’t live your life too focused on “retirement”
RATM
This seems like a good time for a re-read, or a first time read if you haven’t read it before, of Keynes’ “Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren”:
https://www.marxists.org/reference/subject/economics/keynes/1930/our-grandchildren.htm
#15 yvr_lurker
My decision in August to take out a HISA with the orange people is looking really good at the moment
——————————-
What kind of dividend is that HISA yielding?
Expect a nice rally into the year-end: good news from US Govt on averting the shutdown, plus 65 billion purchases of stocks into pension funds.
After a couple hundred points up of S&P500, I will stock-up on SPXU and ride it uppa-uppa-uppa.
#23 acdel – Great link, thanks.
You’re welcome acdel I hope trying different scenarios with the spreadsheet is helpful.
#26 Senor Steve – when squirrel recipes were the norm
Don’t remind me!
#30
2.75% (per annum) for first 6 months, then in Feb. when it expires may find something similar for 6months or role the dice with the market if it looks like we have hit bottom. If I had sunk it all in at mid August , I’d be down 30K in the 70 day period…
Good news everyone!
Markets are closed tomorrow!!
‘Pete’ is concerned that his precious capital may disappear into the maw of a vicious stock meltdown. Fair enough. However, he needs to assess where he stands & whether his $600K will be ‘enough’ if he leaves it in cash.
First, his age: 61. Current ALE (average life expectancy) for a Canadian male is 80. Let us presume Pete has no serious health issues & will live to ALE 80. $600K divided by 19 (61+19=80) is just over $31,500 per annum. This presumes no growth whatsoever due be being kept as cash in a HISA. Further the presumption is that Pete has no need to spend more than the $31,500 (before tax) per year. I’m also presuming Pete either has or will shortly begin CPP, so there will be some additional income, albeit at a reduced rate for taking it before age 65.
Conclusion: IF Pete does not live past age 80 & can enjoy life on such an annual income he doesn’t ‘have’ to invest. However, if Pete does need ‘more’ & does live longer than the ALE of 80, he may find himself trying to live on ‘just’ CPP plus whatever other government benefits (OAS/GIS) may be available. If Pete has a spouse, the household finances might be just a tad iffy.
If Pete wants to ensure his money will cover expenses for the remainder of his life & ensure his spouse isn’t left in penury, he would be wise to invest half the money now in a balanced, diversified portfolio & let it grow. The other half should be more than enough to ensure he & his spouse need not dumpster dive for the next decade. The portfolio will have enough time to weather any downturns & grow in value. Even if the actual net return was a very modest 3% per annum that original investment of $300K should be north of $415K a decade from now. That should also reassure Pete that investing isn’t something that will lead to him living under a bridge during his ‘golden’ years.
Go the belt & suspenders route, Pete. The odds of you wishing you had invested more at the outset are far greater than the odds you will end up regretting ever having invested. Just remember: BALANCED and DIVERSIFIED. And stick to the solid stuff when investing. Investments promising double digit rates of return usually come with high to extreme risk of losing the lot.
For Pete’s sake!
Don’t you want to live off cash when the markets are down?
And good thing he didn’t commute all his funds in the early fall.
$600k at age 61 is a fail. If he is able to get to it all, invested with a 5% yield that is a whopping $30k year. Hey big spender.
He needs a fund with ROC or else ration the cash and pray you make it to CPP eligibility.
Garth’s post today discloses a couple of the many reasons I respect and am fond of him. First, he is an optimist. I am a pessimist (never disappointed) and it is good for me to see the other side. Refreshing and we need more. The second is that the tenor of his response to Pete which discloses the soft spot in his heart for the working stiff and in this case a fella that left his sweat and blood on the shop floor for a near lifetime. A rare breed among politicians.
Now some nitpicking. Minor. It is not “an historic”. When the “aitch” is hard, it is “a horse”, “a house” and “a historic”. When the “aitch” is soft, it is “an hour”, “an honour” and “an honorarium”.
#15 yvr_lurker
Perhaps this would be a good time to buy some cheap stocks?
Other good news?
Trump can back down on tariffs (good for market, bad going forward).
Powell might adjust his tone as far as rate increases.
Trump can fire Powell and insert dovish Head of Fed.
(Three comments in less than an hour? I must be drinking. CHEERS)
Hi there, one year ago I was planning to enter the market with lots of cash. I thought it was high so I decided to wait. Luckily, I wait. How long should I wait to enter the market? Should I wait a bit longer?
Pete, take heed:
I buy investments like I buy clothes. “What’s on sale?” I ask my financial guy. I try hard not to buy clothes at full price and I’ll be hanged before I’ll buy funds when they’re at the top of the market.
All my shopping done. Check.
All my booze purchased. Check.
Enough food to feed an army. Check.
Cold beer. Check
Warm home. Check.
All Bills paid. Check(Cheque?)
I’m done battling the crowds….
Merry Festivus DOGS!
Timing on this correction couldn’t be better with year end bonuses and tax returns coming up. He is to hoping markets shed 5-10% more over the next 90 days
#34
Don’t think we are quite there yet. It looks to me like the steep rate of decline of the TSX (strong deceleration) indicates that we are not near the trough yet. The rate of decline is much larger than the rate of incline when it bounced back from the bottom. I know one should not time the market, but am okay with missing out on the upside…. perhaps Feb would be a good time….just would not have been happy to have lost 30K in a short 70 days….
ho hum
Another day another News story about money laundering in BC.
“Up to $1.5 million per DAY….”
https://theprovince.com/news/local-news/b-c-government-files-forfeiture-claim-in-money-laundering-case
#22 Shawn Allen
Garth likes to scary children with options, but here is my take: maybe Pete should go and write some puts on liquid ETFs
For example: 170 January PUT in IWM (small caps were killed) with 28 days till expiration collects 350$ in premium
It had a whopping 77% probability to make half of profit on collected premium
12350 is cash required to make this trade, fully secured position same as if you buy 100 shares of IWM
Now, Shawn can you do the math and check what’s the yearly return on capita if Pete sell put every month? Spoiler: it’s faaaaar better than any prefs, divs, yields or whatever junk retail investors buy and hold, duh
“Ditto in the States. Economic growth is robust, as are corporate profits. Inflation is tame and there’s virtual full employment”
=====================================
Some of the “Pundits” are calling for a recession in 2019.
Is a recession possible with a 3.7% unemployment rate. ??
Is everybody going to get fired over the next couple of quarters in order to create this recession ??
Remember, Garth is in the financial management business (no offense, Garth) . But this is somewhat akin to relators saying that real estate always goes up. The next recession is going to be dire, and it’s likely starting right now. The “everything bubble” is popping due to money being printed and printed by Central banks for decades. As equities and hyperinflated valuations drop, crypto will rise, and eventually civilization will return to a fair exchange of goods and services, without the manipulation of currency by Central bankers and banks.
Of course that won’t happen. Go back to Monster Hunter: World. – Garth
With Trump on track for another win in 2020 you can expect The Establishment to throw everything they have at him, including a major markets crash.
Who left the back gate open? The damn tinfoilers got it. – Garth
Pink Snow falling in Delta.
Am I really gonna do this?
Can’t find a good enough reason not to.
Here goes my third season of the original and still the best, blood splatter in the snow,otherwise known as Pink Snow.
Featured these guys in their epic tug-of-war with the market with the aim of not taking a loss despite overpaying by a vast amount.
The details…
996 Eden Crescent, Delta.
paid 1.75 April 2016
Originally asking 1.92
Now asking 1.58
assessment 1.47 – down from 1.59
So they have been at it a year and a Half,trying to stave off a loss.
B.C Assessment hates my guts so much that their present for me is to make me change all the assessment numbers as I revise each case over time.
Some of these cases have been trying to get their money back since late 2016, I try to do lighthearted commentary but a multi year struggle of who said what and who wanted what, cannot be fun.
A lot of people made money and a lot of people were conned.
Sometimes it’s hard to spot the difference between the vultures and the vulnerable…
M44BC
Aug 30:$1,928,000
Sep 1: $1,780,000
Change: – 148000.00 -8%
https://www.rew.ca/properties/R2328475/996-eden-crescent-delta-bc
https://www.zolo.ca/delta-real-estate/996-eden-crescent
https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDA1VlFXQw==
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Feel free to make a small donation for cancer research.
Flop For Fox Fund…
http://www.terryfox.org/get-involved/ways-to-give/
Doug in London on 12.21.18 at 3:42 pm
Now isn’t that strange. Here’s someone who doesn’t want to buy stocks or equity ETFs when they are on sale, and yet 5 days from now shopping malls will be jam packed with people frantically trying to get good deals with Boxing Day sales. Yes, truth really is stranger than fiction.
————————–
Just bring back that equity back if it’s not your size or colour.
Peter,
I did exactly this in 2015, took the transfer value and have it invested. Best thing I ever did!
You need to get it now while things are down and might even get a nice quick bump in the new year.
Other wise invest half now and have Garth put the rest in over the next couple of months to dollar cost average it a bit.
Turner investments have a great team and there plan helps lower volatility. Things will go up and sometimes correct a bit this is part of a healthy market. My portfolio has weathered the Brexit, the Trump win and a few other minor corrections as expected.
This market is still expensive based on a lot of different measures, so why overpay for stocks? By low and sell high. This market has been helped along by CB money printing, the evidence seems pretty strong and the easy money days are over until the next major crash. No one can predict where the market is going but one can make an educated guess. My guess is lower, how much is hard to say. At least 20%or more for the s&p but only time will tell.
Pete may be the smartest guy on this thread, waiting out the storm and following the age-old credo of buy low-sell high. It’s all about timing the markets, in spite of what the experts say. Garth, have you thought about hiring him? He can probably also fix the office photocopier, and work on your Harley while the markets continue to tumble, until things take a turn for the better.
#9 ifriend on 12.21.18 at 4:36 pm
Thanks Garth for the tips a week ago.
Today I bought tons of TD.PF.K. So happy about the 8.9 %.”
Isn’t the stock down around 12% in the last month?
Sheesh. I give up. – Garth
#41 Peter
Taking any advice in the comment section regarding investment decisions, well let’s just say a professional advisor might serve you better.
This is a place for opinions, some good others hmmm?
1998 article. Could have been written now. Market rallied 55% over the next 2 years. https://money.cnn.com/1998/08/31/markets/marketwrap/
“The United States currently has no cushion for when the economy goes into a recession or slows down.”
The USD is dropping as we blog. Interest rates are going to rise faster than this blog or Fed banker states IMHO.
My daughters dog is identical to the one in the photo.
With Mattis and Kelly leaving, the inmates now control the White House.
March 2019 Copper Futures Contracts down 2.25 Cents at $ 2.67 per Pound… Often a bellweather on General Activity in the Global Economy
Happy Holiday season and Merry Christmas to all, Garth, Ryan and Doug… Thanks for all your effort… I learn a lot or question a lot on this site… Best wishes for the New Year!
The Loonie (tunes) dropped again today on news that oil prices have dropped.
At what point will Canada (not counting SK,AB,NB) realize that beating up on our #1 export moneymaker Oil every chance you can get is not helping Canada.
#17 Crossbordershopper…”i am trying to find returns of every individual stock on the tsx…..I suspect really lousy”
Here’s a sample porfolio which easily beats the market.
Prior decade returns to March 2017. Annualised, and Total…..
CNR 18.5%, 361%
ENB 15.4% 253%
Emera 14.2% 231%
CP 14.4% 235%
TD 12.78%, 195%
RY 12.58% 190%
CU 10.6% 361%
BNS 19.37% 143%
TRP 9.6% 124%
FTS 8.7% 231%
Averaged annulised return 13%…vs the TSX of 4.7%
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/the-blazingly-simple-must-have-portfolio/article4391968/
Well it’s that time of year again !
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Er69b4HMl8
https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/8a145607-7b64-4e2d-897b-dc3027fb60c8
If you didn’t sell … you didn’t lose. Meanwhile, the old adage still applies …. “buy low, sell high”.
Grandad’s advice: “If it doesn’t pay you to own it, don’t buy it.” I don’t always agree, but he has a point.
BTW, has anybody seen my bear suit?
Sell Puts
#47 Roman on 12.21.18 at 7:10 pm
#22 Shawn Allen
Garth likes to scary children with options, but here is my take: maybe Pete should go and write some puts on liquid ETFs
For example: 170 January PUT in IWM (small caps were killed) with 28 days till expiration collects 350$ in premium
It had a whopping 77% probability to make half of profit on collected premium
12350 is cash required to make this trade, fully secured position same as if you buy 100 shares of IWM
Now, Shawn can you do the math and check what’s the yearly return on capita if Pete sell put every month? Spoiler: it’s faaaaar better than any prefs, divs, yields or whatever junk retail investors buy and hold, duh
***************************************
Perhaps I should look into it. I don’t know anything about it. I studies them a bit years ago but never really mastered them and now I basically forget how they work.
And it certainly does not look like Pete has anything close to the knowledge to get into that. If he could get 5% yield and then maybe sell 2% per year to total 7% he would be ahead of most people. Dividend growth of just 2% would mean that his cash yield would not decline even as he sold off 2% of the shares each year.
Sorry, but I don’t have enough knowledge of puts to even follow your example. Does writing a put make money when shares go down a lot?
I do know that buying and selling puts is a zero sum game where any money made by one investor must be lost by another. That is not the case in buy and hold where money flows in from profits from customers of businesses. But I also vaguely understand that those who write puts and calls (effectively selling insurance?) tend to win over time at the expense of those who buy them as insurance?
If you have made money writing /selling puts then perhaps you can explain further and show your track record. Please write in crayon.
Canadian wireless prices down, still higher than most G7 countries
A 2 GB plan in 4 U.S. cities is 20% lower than in Canada
The Canadian Press · Posted: Dec 21, 2018 4:32 P
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/wireless-prices-cell-phone-plan-canada-1.4652550
Merry Christmas, Garth, Ryan, Doug, Flop, Smokey, and blog dogs!
Sour grapes, Braj.
#63 Deplorable Dude
I have all of those stocks mentioned.
Keep those forever.
Looky what Samsung has been up to:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xtE9hpwrDg4
These things make a border wall, look down right civilized.
#138 Shawn Allen on 12.21.18 at 2:36 pm
Anyhow, I am sorry for whatever it is that makes you such a nasty person. You must have had a rough life in some ways.
===============================
That was very sweet and I thank you for that.
My ‘nastiness’ is product of Canadian reality. It is just the cold, hard truth that was never ever appreciated in the big white north. And never will.
My intent is to pock all the extremely polite, naive and conditioned people who do not realize how they are lied to, robbed and used by the extremely stupid and intellectually and humanly limited rulers/elite of this place. Why? Because even without realizing it, your conformity and willingness to obey affects other people as we live in a fluent society.
If you believe that you will reap any reward that, your are mistaken.
Otherwise I acknowledge that you are a good person.
But the naivety, Oh, man, that naivety and refusal to open your eyes… Mind blowing.
I understand completely Smoking Man, it is very hard and painful to look at grown up men and women who are afraid of and refuse to face the reality.
It is very hard to regard children as grown ups .
But the reality will face you one way or another, sooner or later. The sooner, the better as no one, literally no one will help you.
Of course GT will tell it to you in a more polite way, he had to, I don’t. if you can make your own conclusions, that’s good
FINALLY!!!
WE START TALKING…….and SHARING investment ideas.
#66
Pete will figure it out, I’m sure :)
It’s not that complicated and one can’t un-learn it, like bicycle riding,
And by the way, if he goes and writes puts in margin account, it would require 6x less cash, imagine return on capital even with the most conservative strategy
Regarding track record, I’ve just started this year and all accounts – registered and margin – are significantly up for the year, even though it was a bumpy start.
if I can make it it will be dinner with the Swanson’s
All the best ,
https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/newyear?p0=%3A&msg=%2A%2A%2A%2A+HAPPY+New+Year+2019%2A%2A%2A%2A&font=hand&csz=1
One can’t help but wonder if this time it really will be different. The levels of global debt are unprecedented. The US is now running $1 Trillion deficits every year. Household and even corporate debt is off the chart. Zero percent interest rates, abnormal in any time, have only modestly increased and yet stress is evident in all asset classes (bonds, stocks, oil, and even bitcoin). Unfortunately, unlike 2008/9, Central Bankers have limited resources available in the event of another troubling crash. I purchased stocks during the last downturn, and yet this time around, I don’t have the same confidence.
#54 Nick B on 12.21.18 at 7:39 pm
This market is still expensive based on a lot of different measures, so why overpay for stocks? By low and sell high. This market has been helped along by CB money printing, the evidence seems pretty strong and the easy money days are over until the next major crash. No one can predict where the market is going but one can make an educated guess. My guess is lower, how much is hard to say. At least 20%or more for the s&p but only time will tell.
—————————
I will prefer world diversified stocks portfolio representing the world economy in mid to long run rather than Poloz’s loonie worth exactly 1/1000th of a square foot of a crappy noisy cold glass condo with 8 x 9 feet ‘bedroom’ and maintenance + taxes over 1 k a month.
Or 1/1500th of the monthly rent for a basement ‘apartment’ with no windows.
I would go with the stock market anytime.
Of course keep in mind that at some point thieves will come for your money one way or another, so still spent some and enjoy life if/while you can.
Happy Flopperdays!
Well, I’ve disclosed this before,I’m not the most festive person on the planet, but that won’t stop me from wishing everyone a Happy Holiday period.
Might not post much next week, depends if I get stuck in transit somewhere or not.
I don’t actually bother celebrating Christmas.
Christmas time for me is just a time to get out of Vancouver and spend some quality time with Mrs Flop.
I’m going to New Orleans next week for the first time,a new city ,a new state.
I hope people don’t throw pink beads at me…
M44BC
P.S Thanks Lurker,may you and your family have a good one.
This guy should dollar cost average this massive windfall.
Invest it in 3 tranches:
40% of it should be invested ASAP
30% should be invested (whatever comes first) on April 1st or a further 10% downside in the market
Last 30% invested either 3 months after the previous investment or further 10% downside in the market
PS – you forgot to mention the Fed is rolling off $50 Billion a month from its balance sheet. Never been done before in history so it’s tough to know what the unintended consequences are…certainly a dry-up in liquidity
It’s worth remembering that when prices decline expected future returns are higher. So, all else being equal, if you have a lump sum to put into the market now is better than two months ago.
It’s also worth noting that if you expect your portfolio to never have negative years, you probably do not understand investing yet. Keep working at it. Keep reading.
Re: #125 Godth on 12.20.18 at 11:54 am
#117 TurnerNation
looking at the wheat chart you provided along with the other commodities listed at the top you’re actually proving my point, thanks. https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ZW&p=m1
you may want to look at what’s happening with the ogallala aquifer, lake mead and soil salinization levels in california to get a sense where this is going. don’t be lazy. https://www.californiasun.co/stories/californias-soil-is-getting-too-salty-for-crops-to-grow/
++++++++++++++++++
That’s why they’re burning out their population up north to grow there. Getting rid of the cities and pushing them all into major centers to grow.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8-vGwKQatmo
All in the plan…..Agenda 21
Re; #66 Godth on 12.19.18 at 7:32 pm
This is from the comments of video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8-vGwKQatmo:
They are moving everybody out of California to turn it into dedicated agricultural production (I add OK valley). The Grand Solar Minimum is going to require a sunny dry place with controllable water to produce enough crops to feed what’s left of the population. If you look around the rest of the US, and the world, you’ll see that all current growing areas are being destroyed by floods and extreme cold. California passed the controlled weather drought experiments, which means they can keep it dry enough for large scale Ag production during the height of the Grand Solar Minimum. There is already a water source from the north, the canal, that can be used for field irrigation. There is a fully functioning Artificial Sun that is hexagonal, most of us have seen it, whether you knew what you were looking at, or not. The High Speed Rail will take Ag workers into the fields to work everyday, that’s why it’s being built through the Central Valley. FYI: Grand Solar Minimum = Ice Age, NOT Global Warming! Global warming, which is being artificially created through Chemtrailing, is the False Flag that is being used to get everybody on-board with forced austerity. Population reduction is in full on assault from many fronts.
And just when the comment section was going so well… – Garth
Would like to know more about Pete’s pension. Garth sort of glossed over it. How funded it is and what kind of governance model they use is very pertinent and missing info for this analysis. Also curious how he can commute it at 61. The pensions I’m familiar with in Ontario anyway can’t be commuted beyond age 55, once a plan member can opt to receive pension payments.
Garth also said “. Control is always good. Especially these days.”. Always? That I highly doubt. People bankrupt themselves all the time. And certainly many advisors are not as skilled or ethical as Garth. My uncle was a financial advisor. He was a crook. I watched my money stagnate for years versus a climbing index. When I was a bit older I realized he had put me in the investments that simply paid him the highest possible fees. Of course this was back before ETFs and low cost funds existed.
Canada’s growth is running at 2% annually.
70% behind the US growth rate of 3.1%. Something ain’t right.
#69 JSS….”I have all of those stocks mentioned.
Keep those forever.”
Yep. This is as about a safe individual stock portfolio as you could have. These aren’t the Nortel’s/Bombardier’s of the world. All good solid companies providing intrinsic value in essential utilities or the Big banks.
And all throwing out juicy dividends with a long history of increasing every year. Don’t know about you JSS but I enjoyed a nearly 17% increase in dividend income this year, with drip reinvestment. I’ll take that!
Peter could do a lot worse than to buy those companies….enjoy the quarterly dividend income.
Pink Snow falling in Richmond.
Here’s another one that has been pretty relentless in their efforts try and wriggle out of the trap set by The Sell Squad.
The details…
7840 MALAHAT AVE RICHMOND
Paid 1.7 February 2017
Originally asking 1.81
Now asking 1.65
Assessment 1.94
So as I mentioned before , vultures and the vulnerable, these guys on the evidence I saw were never trying to rip anyone off just trying to escape from a bad situation without much of a mark.
I have lots of cases like this one.
Speculation effort or not it still needs reporting to try and fill in a few of the inconvenient blanks in the system.
I’ve reported on probably tens of millions of losses this year.
Not everyone can get out safely.
Too late for that.
The million dollar losses will continue on the Westside and West Vancouver.
The quarter of a million and half a million dollar losses will continue in the rest of the city.
People bit too hard on the bubble.
Now they are stuck in the gum…
M44BC
https://www.zolo.ca/richmond-real-estate/7840-malahat-avenue
https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDA1V1pZUA==
#76 For those about to flop…
I’m going to New Orleans next week for the first time,a new city ,a new state.
—
Flop,
Two recommendations for you: pralines at Laura’s (https://www.laurascandies.com), and beignets at Cafe du Monde (http://www.cafedumonde.com).
Have fun!
“Canada’s economy is rocking.” I’m not sure I agree Garth. I’m in an industry that caters to everyone from marketing firms to insurance companies and I’m hearing and experiencing different things on my end. Our local suppliers that include everything from manufacturers to local couriers have a different story, they’re experiencing an unsettling slow down. With all due respect, I question all reports…from real estate to economic. My 2 cents…which may be worth more than preferred. :)
Peter’s idea is interesting and not without merit. If markets were to tank faster than he were to burn through his annual cash need, then he would be further ahead. But this would require further declines over the next year, which doesn’t seem likely. If invested he could be earning dividends, and gain from the eventual turn up in the market.
@Ken M, post #52:
I’ll bring that equity back to the brokerage firm, to sell to someone else for a capital gain, after holding it for some time to reap the rewards of dividends. And now for the punch line, at these DIRT CHEAP prices the yield is higher. Oh yes, I DO believe in Santa Claus!
From the insanity of YVR where a 33-foot lot with a shack on it goes for ~ $1M (for now), to this:
In Spain, Entire Villages Are Up For Sale — And They’re Going Cheap
The abandoned village of O Penso, in northwest Spain, is for sale for about $230,000. The last resident died a decade ago. The village includes 100 acres with half a dozen houses, two sprawling farms with room for 70 cattle and a stand-alone bread-making kitchen
https://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2015/08/23/433228503/in-spain-entire-villages-are-up-for-sale-and-theyre-going-cheap?fbclid=IwAR1aFDFjVztSq8Cpfxie9B2Pu8eUMhje55NatlC5-gBV4hhqjsrsphO9-q0
Could start myself a lil commune of GreaterFools! LOL
TCC
Show Pete this https://www.mfg.com.au/blog/the-worst-year/
RE: #9 ifriend on 12.21.18 at 4:36 pm
Thanks Garth for the tips a week ago.
Today I bought tons of TD.PF.K. So happy about the 8.9 %
===============================
I saw this, got excited, and then checked the prospectus for those shares. Sorry to say that at $20.50 per share they are yielding 5.8% ($1.1875 per share per annum) and while that’s quite good for a bank preferred, it’s not 8.9%. See this link. It’s on the very 1st page:
https://www.td.com/document/PDF/investor/ProspSupp_Eng.pdf
I think some websites get confused by the 1st dividend which is higher than normal because it’s for a time period longer than a single fiscal quarter.
http://www.bbc.com/capital/gallery/20181220-who-wants-to-buy-a-french-castle
Who wants to buy a French château?
For sale online at 850,000 euros ($964,000), all in. “I know it costs more,” the owner says. “Two years ago it was estimated at 1.1m ($1.25m) euros but I am not selling it for money.”
Hello Ottawa, to me that looks like a 36% lag behind.
I am new to this 60/40 split of holding and rebalancing the portfolio. Usually in the past I would just sell my shares and be done with the pain. In 2007-8 it was Schiff and Ron Paul that said that something is wrong with the markets. I sold and watched equities collapse.
Now with holding a balanced portfolio I feel helpless as I see the portfolio’s value tick lower everyday. How do you keep your “mental sanity” knowing that you don’t know where the bottom is.
The fixed asset side is not helping. They are all bleeding too.
Here is the percentage recovery number just to break even needs a higher return.
Loss (%)……. Req’d Gain
5%…………….. 5.2%
10%…………….. 11%
15%…………….. 18%
20%…………….. 25%
25%…………….. 33%
30%…………….. 43%
35%…………….. 54%
40%…………….. 67%
45%…………….. 82%
50%…………….. 100%
Its hard being a reactive trader to one that is watching complacently.
Wish us luck.
Recent sale report.
This one is probably gonna raise a few eyebrows, but it’s game on in the luxury market over 5 million, anything is possible.
The details…
1238 w 37th ave Vancouver.
Paid 6.18 March 2012
Originally asking 9.8
Just sold for 5.5
Assessment 8.92
So this one even though it still sold for 5.5 is pretty remarkable for a couple of reasons.
They bought in 2012 and just took a big loss.
They are not alone in that department I remember another one in West Vancouver not that long ago, but it is pretty rare.
It went for the best part of 40% less than assessed.
With the mania that was going on in early 2016 it is fair to say they could have asked for, and gotten, 10 million dollars.
When the dust at the rodeo settles they will have lost around 16% or close enough to a million, before we even worry about opportunities lost.
They rode the market up but stayed on the bull too long…
M44BC
https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/1238-west-37th-avenue
Pete should be happy all this money has become available to him to invest during a dip. It’s nice when a sale coincides with all that sudden dry powder.
Recent sale report.
I had earmarked this one as it drifted below the 2 million mark, as most of the other ones on the market that had sold on the Westside below that marker this year needed some work.
This one I believe is the first one where you could hand over the cash and relax,sort of.
The details…
3545 Dunbar st,Vancouver
Originally asking 2.49
Just sold for 1.92
Assessment 2.05
So like I said, I started paying attention to this one when they lowered the asking to 1.99,it still didn’t go for full ask, and there are a lot more properties in way worse shape still dreaming of 2016 prices.
I remember working in this area not long after I got here and people being giddy about their homes being worth one million dollars.
I thought I would never see houses in that area go for anywhere near that number again.
Now I’m not so sure…
M44BC
https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/3545-dunbar-street
Don’t over think.
Sell Batman, buy the Camel Toe. It’s even better when you have a distant relative in a tax free country who opens a trading account for you under his/her name.
Under no conditions should you make big bets when communist give no shit about your risk taking and they want 54% of your bet.
Even the Italian maffia is more reasonable.
The blog was going so well till Chem Trails, Grand Solar Minimums & planned population reduction reared its tinned foil head. But wait, a shoot popping its greenie tendrils above the morass, a Hail Mary, “there is a water source from the north, a canal.”
A canal, from where? North: Go north young man to the source of the sweet potable endless waters. North to the excelsior of life itself. North to where the mighty Fraser brushes the powerful Columbia. North to Big Bend country.
A hush descends over the land. A hundred million people tremble ,waiting for the Columbia River Treaty end times 2024 AD. So much at stake, so much to lose.
North is where the water is. North is where the money is. North is where the future lies.
ifriend on 12.21.18 at 4:36 pm
Thanks Garth for the tips a week ago.
Today I bought tons of TD.PF.K. So happy about the 8.9 %. I guess, I will never thank you enough.
Keep up the great job by educating us and Happy Holidays !!!
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
It’s called Single Malt……. Still time to courier a fine Bottle to Sir Turner for Christmas !
Show us what kind of friend you are now…..
The world’s 10th largest economy is running close to full speed and forecasters are predicting growth will remain close to a 2 percent annualized pace between October and December. Unemployment is at record lows and some companies have reported they are struggling to fill new orders with their existing capacity.
Ditto in the States. Economic growth is robust, as are corporate profits. Inflation is tame and there’s virtual full employment – the best jobs situation since people were wearing beehive hairdos instead of manbuns.
We are most likely living in some parallel universes:
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-oecd-trims-economic-outlook-amid-trade-disputes-emerging-market-woes/
The world grows by 3.7 %, we ‘grow’ by 2 of which 6-8 is inflation. So we really shrinking.
10th economy in the world? More likely 25th.
Not sure who will believe these upbeat ‘news’. As for the TSX prospects, I wrote countless times, a small unattractive to investors local exchange except the resource sector.
As for the great employment: sure.
If things were great we would;t need to be reminded of that on a daily bases.
@#77 Flop
“I hope people don’t throw pink beads at me…”
+++++
You have to wait til Mardi Gras for that OR the Pride Parade in Van.
Enjoy Naw-lins.
@#100 fishman
“The blog was going so well till Chem Trails, Grand Solar Minimums & planned population reduction reared its tinned foil head….”
+++++
I was also wondering why there were so many conspiracy wingnuts appearing simultaneously .
Then I realized.
Dec 22. Full Moon.
2000 years ago the Romans realized the Moon had an adverse affect on certain members of the population.
Hence the word “Lunatics”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lunatic
Foreigners now make up about 40% of all buyers in some areas of Sicily.
– Wall Street Journal, Friday, Dec 21, 2018; pM1
“… drawn by bargain prices, natural and cultural splendors, a revitalized food and wine scene and the welcoming Sicilians.”
The article didn’t mention “foreign buyer tax” or “empty house tax”, so I assume there are none. (tongue planted firmly in cheek)
Dry powder holders are having a great Christmas this year! Time to put it to work slowly and nibble away at the dessert bar. If markets go up, then great! If the go down then great because your dry powder is ready! Have a great Christmas to the dry powder holders out there! Enjoy!
#97 Al on 12.22.18 at 12:52 am
Pete should be happy all this money has become available to him to invest during a dip. It’s nice when a sale coincides with all that sudden dry powder.
——-
Indeed, but Pete is not a money guy as Garth said. I know a couple guys who never saved anything and received a one time truckload of ordinance – both got ultra paranoid of losing it right off the bat.
Long time investors have had time to get used to volatility through decades of sautéing in the market. Riding those waves in comfort takes experience, faith, and a long time horizon helps too. Pete is a newb with no experience and little time – I guess he better up the faith quota to cover the shortfall. He’s old enough to know that he don’t know it all, if he’s paying for solid investment expertise from G, why not take it?
PS, if there are any Canadian Whiskey lovers on the blog here, try 12 Barrels :).
Canadian Whiskey lovers on the blog here, try 12 Barrels :).
—
Copy that.
Recently i got lot4 11yrs, cask strength canadian rye. Didn’t try it yet, guys i know says its good.
Dude i work with gave mi sample of glenmorangie signet for Christmas, man is that thing something.
And in a wake of climate change fiasco from last few days i go me some johny white walker, because we all know winter is coming. Actualy let me refrase that, winter is already here.
#12 Keep the Aspidistras Flying
Look at all these bloody houses and the meaningless people inside them. Sometimes I think we’re all corpses. Just rotting upright.
——————————————————————–
Today’s subdivision houses and condominiums are Tomorrow’s mausoleums and crypts! Ha Ha.
#15 yvr_lurker
My decision in August to take out a HISA with the orange people is looking really good at the moment.
——————————————————————–
Have you learned nothing?
The TSX was 15,000 back in 2007 when it hit this peak for the first time. It is now below 13,935. Yes there are dividends but the TSX as an index really sucks.
#43 crowdedelevatorfartz
Merry Festivus DOGS!
——————————————————————–
https://www.facebook.com/Pretty.Sweet.Pastries/photos/a.306937372707324/2146552955412414/?type=3&theater
So The TSX is down 15%. In other news, sales of Single Malts are way up! :) Happy Festivus everyone!
Our Minister of Health and her entourage want to tour Canada to find out from people what they think of marijuana edibles. Reminiscent of a Trudeau trip to India. Have our government employees not heard of email or social media to ask questions of Canadians. Why do they have to go on tour and WASTE our Taxpayer money on airfares, hotels, perdiems, taxis, renting rooms for a gathering. Our government is going to screw this up anyway so why do we have to pay lots for them to screw it up. I AM BUYING A YELLOW JACKET TODAY
This is the classic case of what happens when people don’t take profits.
We had a monster run for 8 years,
We had a monster run from Nov 2016
We have rising rates and a slowing business cycle.
Oil is triggering something to those who pay attention.
The saving grace for this bear market is a crashing US dollar.
If it doesn’t then deflation should pretty much wipe this market out.
It’s a shame really
But hold forever is looking like a horrible strategy.
@#106 Linda
“The article didn’t mention “foreign buyer tax” or “empty house tax”, so I assume there are none…..”
+++++
…….Yet.
Your instincts are correct, Pete. Keep your $$ out of the index funds. If I were you I’d keep 70% in cash and put the 30% remaining in gold. CEF and GG are two you might consider. Then, when this market crash is done, (and there is a long way down before this Everything Bubble is completely burst) you can talk to Garth about how to invest your money. But, for the love of Pete, do not put any money in the market right now. Follow your gut!
@67 – Fish
Who needs a cell phone anyhow. I’ve saved literally thousands of $ by not having one. I have no need or desire to be “connected” 24/7. Other than business people (sales, self-employed, etc.), I do not see a need for cell phones.
I was led to believe that after age 55 you couldn’t withdraw the money from your pension plan. I know there would be a tax hit but… clarification on the rules for this would be helpful. I to have a dodgy pension plan.
#119 ts – I bought a cell phone on the shopping channel in 1998 for a great deal, and in time will become a collectors item. I bought it for a travel emergency, but its still in the original box in prime condition. $100 down the drain once again.
@#115 Cherry B
“Why do they have to go on tour and WASTE our Taxpayer money on airfares, hotels, perdiems, taxis, renting rooms for a gathering….”
+++++
Silly voter….
Because they’re entitled to their entitlements…..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UIo-bEsoMgA
#115 CHERRY BLOSSOM on 12.22.18 at 10:44 am
Those aren’t “Government employees”, they are elected officials….and you elected them.
MF
#9 ifriend on 12.21.18 at 4:36 pm
Thanks Garth for the tips a week ago.
Today I bought tons of TD.PF.K. So happy about the 8.9 %. I guess, I will never thank you enough.
Keep up the great job by educating us and Happy Holidays !!!
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
I was intrigued, to say the least, at the prospect of a CAD bank preferred share providing that high of a yield. When I went to my CIBC online brokerage, I did see the yield you noted, but it is important to check out the actual offering prospectus to get all the necessary information.
This new offering will provide an annual dividend of $1.1875 per share, for 5 years before its rate reset. At today’s close of $20.50, that provides an annual yield of 5.79% over the 5 years of its initial dividend. Quite a good yield for CAD bank preferred, to be sure.
But it is not the ~8.9%. The first quarterly dividend of a new offer is typically a little higher – in this case $0.4555. This is one time only for that quarter. Unfortunately, many systems will take that and just multiple by 4 (not knowing it is a one time higher value), which leads to the erroneous yield value on an annual basis.
There is lots of other important information in the offer prospectus. Just Google the symbol and you can find it. It has the information on the rate reset value, dates, conversions, etc.
#62 Drill Baby Drill on 12.21.18 at 7:59 pm
Why do I have to keep calling out these guys?
The only Canadians who are against oil and your province are the ones in your head.
Get a grip already.
MF
#71 Stan Brooks on 12.21.18 at 8:49 pm
“My ‘nastiness’ is product of Canadian reality. It is just the cold, hard truth that was never ever appreciated in the big white north. And never will.”
-Blaming the country for your own failures is weak. I see people working hard and succeeding all the time.
Failure should be a motivator.
MF
#119 ts
Who needs a cell phone anyhow. I’ve saved literally thousands of $ by not having one. I have no need or desire to be “connected” 24/7. Other than business people (sales, self-employed, etc.), I do not see a need for cell phones.
————————————–
They got dozens of great features, but unfortunately, the one thing cell phones aren’t all that good for is making phone calls.
The fed can barely get a lift on interest rates. And is already tempering further increases.
And look how global markets have reacted this year.
This is far and away from a historical normally functioning economy.
hey flop check those guys out, I somewhat often play their music… here is a schedule, where they are playing while your be over there.
http://tubaskinny.com/schedule/
and here is music
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL1165459554588E77
You’re smart but you’re an idiot.
Shut up already, you’re embarrassing your family.
@Cherry Blossom:
Там по идее полицейские могут тебя столкнуть чтоб ты не мешал проезду да и за вмятины я думаю страховка все покроет. А не выходят из машины может по технике безопасности а то малоли засада)
#crowdedelevatorfartz, post #105:
Always look for the easy answer. In the days before widespread artificial lighting, the full moon allowed the night time attacker a better view of their potential victim.
interesting
Current list price $899K
List DateList PriceTypeStatusDateSold Price
16/08/2018$988,000For SaleTerminated31/10/2018
09/07/2018$2,599,000For SaleTerminated13/08/2018
09/10/2015$3,000For RentExpired07/01/2016
07/05/2015$1,650,000For SaleSold01/06/2015$1,525,000
https://www.zoocasa.com/search?bedrooms=4%2B&latitude=43.599703405973564&listing-id=5687821&longitude=-79.66080354501491&sort=price&zoom=12
I love Alberta. I love Trump.
I despise snowflakes and arrogant silver spooned thieves pretending to be feminists.
What does that make me?
What a little man child…
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12-22/justin-trudeau-blames-trumps-racist-policies-canadas-immigration-crisis
It’s always been the case to buy right and sit tight. You never want to cut up the sacred cow. It’s about having ones investments throwing out dividends/earnings.
https://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/family-finance/this-ontario-couple-is-riding-rental-cash-flow-to-a-five-star-retirement