Trump couldn’t do it. Even Mr. Market failed this time. Nothing could stop the US central bank, aka The Fed, from upping its key rate yet again.
It was only a quarter point, but Wall Street had laid some heavy odds that Fed bosses would look at the ongoing correction, listen to the US president hammering them, and take a pass this time. They did not. So stocks have reacted this week in a total funk. Bond prices have increased as money flows into fixed assets, lifting bond ETFs with them.
The Fed ignored what other people fret over. The US-China feud, Meng and the Michaels. Macron being toasted in France. Brexit turning into Brokeit. Slower global growth. Mueller, Cohen, Manafort, Flynn and all the little Trumps. Oil worth less than half what it was five years ago.
The central bankers just don’t care. Instead they’re fixated on the return of inflation, wage-price pressures, robust economic growth, full employment and the escalating impact of tariffs. So, up she went. But at the same time, it’s becoming clearer the bankers – our guys included – are closer to the end of this tightening cycle.
Whazzit mean?
First, Mr. Market has to get over being wrong. It was a dumb call to think the Fed would stand pat this week, but lots of people made it. So the sell-off will continue for a little while until stocks are too cheap to pass up. If the current correction worries you, stop looking. Like every other one which went before, it’ll pass. You only punt money when you sell, turning a paper loss into a real one. The advice stands: so don’t.
Second, rates may be going up in the US, but look what just happened to Canadian government bonds. Wow.
Canadian bond yields plop. Bond ETFs swell.
The yield on benchmark 5-year government debt has crashed to the lowest point in almost a year, indicating we little beavs have some serious stuff to deal with. For example, our #1 export is oil, and world prices have been crushed lately. Besides, we still have that pipeline problem and a paralyzed federal government. It even has the cowboys takin’ up secession again. (By the way, BC just lost the $25 billion LNG thing.)
Then inflation. It’s dropped back below 2%, thanks in part to cheap gas, but also reflecting lousy wage gains. Family incomes are stuck but debt keeps rising. And here’s a stat to stiffen your knickers – of all the net worth in Canada (now over $11 trillion), 76% is in one asset class. Guess what that is?
The national fixation and dependence upon real estate is scary. We’re now where the Americans sat just before their housing market blew up and folded that country (and us) into recession. Over the past decade Americans have been reducing the share of their economy based on property, just as we have been accelerating ours. So, no coincidence that family debt here has swollen, while to the south it’s shrunk.
The means we have more risk. A sudden, sharp or sustained plop in house prices here could lead to a loss of consumer confidence and spending as the ‘wealth effect’ of real estate blows up. It’s exactly what this blog’s been warning about since you still had hair – a one-asset financial strategy never works for long. Not for a nation. Not for you.
Well, an upside for homeowners is an end to mortgage rate increases, at least for a while. The banks may even drop fivers a little – 10 or 20 basis points – but they’d rather not. We’ll see. The new mortgages has plunged in volume over the past year (since the stress test), and spreads are thin. Bankers are not happy.
Whatever rates do, the sentiment in the real estate marketplace is negative at the moment. Sales are down. Owners have lost equity this year – just like most financial investors. The unwind that central bankers started 8 months ago, trying to stem the tide of money they created after the credit crisis, is having an impact. Stocks hate it. Realtors loathe it. Audi salesguys are in a funk. Mortgage brokers are comatose. The president’s having a cow.
Withdrawing stimulus is as much fun as it sounds. So have some eggnog. Actually, a lot of eggnog. We’re not done yet.
146 comments ↓
Deflation.
And this is why you own bonds. XCB and VSB are helping to slow the bleeding.
139 Stan Brooks on 12.20.18 at 4:08 pm
Boom…..
25 billion of investments… gone
ExxonMobil shelves Canada LNG export project
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/exxonmobil-shelves-canada-lng-export-project/ar-BBRdNiV
……
Wow!!!! Can’t want for T2, Butts and Climate Barbie to blame it on Doug Ford.
“The Fed ignored what other people fret over. ”
-It was an awesome move. Powell is doing a great job.
Holding back on the rate hike would have eroded confidence in the Federal Reserve institution as people would believe they are politicized, too squeamish for criticism, short sighted, and incompetent.
ZIRP has created bubbles and distorted markets everywhere. The FED just showed it is trying to administer the medicine.
I wish “our central bank” was as smart, but “our central bank” seems politicized, too paralyzed by fear to act and be criticized, short sighted, and incompetent.
MF
Only one thing to deal with Garth and his name is Trudeau.
Evoke the notwithstanding clause and ram that pipeline through to both coasts.
There’s going to be one helluva buying opportunity in the stock markets at some point in the near future. I think this is just a healthy correction in a long term Secular Bull Market that could last until 2025. Interesting that the emerging markets were positive today.
Trending – doom and gloom New Year coming
RATM
Good evening blog dogs, been buying Oil and Gas and Prefered ETFs on the dips as Garth suggested recently mainly XEG and CPD, you dogs think we are getting close to a bottom for Canadian Oil and Gas or am I catching a falling knife in a country without pipelines!
Do professionally managed portfolios (those that charge .75 or1%) react, act and strategize in a manner that fundamentally plans ahead of such sudden unexpected sell offs as currently being experienced or do they watch BNN in real time like everyone else and wonder what the heck is going on?
Oh, is BNN still on the air? – Garth
Lots of great deals on the stock market today:
– Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) > 4% dividend
– AT&T (T) ~ 7% dividend USD
– Brookfield Property Partners (BPY) > 6% dividend USD
All the above are dividend growers at near 52 week lows. Buy yourself a quarterly income for life.
Every share purchase makes you less reliant on your paycheque.
What an amazing opportunity for house-horny Millennials & front end Gen Zers to get into the stock markets!!!!
when you have the Reserve currency of the world
you can make all the money rules
the days will get be gittin longer after tomorrow
happy longer light days all u dogs
Thanks again Garth for bringing things into perspective!
Those Eco nuts in B.C. and Quebec including our (as others have said) climate B******** and our Fem Prime ********has cost us how many billions? And for what??
We are carbon neutral!!! Yep, forest are expanding; plant a fricken tree. 37 million of us will make a huge difference.
Sun and wind will make no difference; ask Germany, when the sun does not shine and the wind does not blow they need to activate those old fossil fuel reactors upon start up adds more pollution to compensate! God, these greenies are stupid and hypocritical.
What’s her name? Climate dudesss; had an army of over 130 delegates for the recent climate hoopla in Poland; seriously??? What is it that she does not get??
Until we have alternative green energies that can run a home from your basement or invest trillions in nuclear power; in which all counties would have to do; with the rising population and the addiction to new technology these greenie hypocrites are only making things worst.
Wow, another 25 billion lost with a much cleaner energy for what????
That crazy and bong dude have no clue!
Yellow vests are a hot seller in these parts; 2019 will be the breaking point!
All the best dawgs!
Anyone notice how gold has bucked the (down) trend of the rest of the markets? As stated previously, I think we’re at the early stages of a powerful rally in precious metals and other commodities. Energy-related equities soon to follow, as they tend to lag precious metals.
Should have held to my TLT position even longer (nice spike lately as a flight to safety play). But a gain is a gain, nevertheless…
TCC
“#1 The Real Mark on 12.20.18 at 4:27 pm
Deflation.”
*sigh*, why do you personate me? I don’t get it. Is life really so lame that you have to commandeer the nickname of another?
On that note, look at those gold miners fly… Their production costs are dropping like a rock (no pun intended) with globally slowing industrial production. Meanwhile the ‘product’, gold and silver, are becoming more valued as hedges against monetary instability.
The XAU to gold ratio peaked at close to 20. Normally its around 4. Even with today’s gains, the ratio is only 18. Still a lot of upside left just to return to the long-term mean, and of course overshoot.
Lol
Bought an A6 a few months ago .
Sales manager and his boss came out to make sure sales guy closed the deal.
They came out ready to deal , and deal they did .
It was only a quarter point, but Wall Street had laid some heavy odds that Fed bosses would look at the ongoing correction, listen to the US president hammering them, and take a pass this time. They did not. -GT
I think it was just a couple of days ago that you said Mr. Market was a 71% go for the increase.
LNG $25 billion – It’s not the Kitimat one.
Stan Brooks is wrong. The cancelled Exxon $25 billion LNG plant is a different one than the Royal Dutch Shell
project which is I think a total of $40 billion with pipelines.
I don’t think the Exxon one ever passed its final investment decision.
Relax there was NEVER really going to more than one (if that) of these behemoths built.
Check other sources but I believe Stan Brooks steered us wrong here in his comment late on yesterday’s Post. In his defense the press release said Canada LNG which sounds a lot like the LNG Canada project in Kitimat. It was not.
#8 Crazy Canuck on 12.20.18 at 5:01 pm
Well a country with no pipelines and business hostile govt and WTI heading into the $40 range as US shale becomes more prolific and you think investing in Canadian O&G is a sale. Nope structural change. Our production is beholden to a single country who will be self sufficient in energy by 2020. Bad move.
$9 JSS – “Buy yourself a quarterly income for life.”
Yep! Happy Christmas to me! Just finished my year end calculations for my Canadian Dividend growth stocks this year….
Bad news…..Portfolio is down 9% this year…..but I don’t really care…don’t need to sell.
Good news…..All my 15 holdings increased their dividend payouts in 2018. So including drip dividend reinvestments…I got an income payrise of 15.87%…..VERY happy bunny.
My overall yield on cost went from 4.19% to 4.86%. And will keep increasing every year as the yummy dividend increases keep happening. All my holdings have at least a 10 year record of increasing dividend payouts.
Love all these companies giving me money every quarter….for ever.
$1,500+ utilities for an apartment located at JANE & FINCH area of Toronto. Unbelievable!
https://www.zumper.com/apartment-buildings/p303046/maplegrove-apartments-york-univeristy-heights-toronto-on?source=trovit_can_all&utm_source=Trovit&utm_medium=CPC&utm_campaign=all_ca&
eggnog?
* barf *
“We’re not done yet.”
……………..
oh, do tell!
bottom hunting is so much fun. please make sure to tell us when we are done. :)
if another 2008 is not possible then we must be getting close.
#5 not 1st on 12.20.18 at 4:54 pm
Only one thing to deal with Garth and his name is Trudeau.
Evoke the notwithstanding clause and ram that pipeline through to both coasts.
charter…charter…charter of rights and freedoms
The feds might evoke it but they certainly cannot invoke it. It has no application to interprovincial pipelines. Constitutional law 101.
#2, VSB is flat since March 2018. Bonds are no better than cash/GIC’s.
This may be mean of me, but I just can’t feel that much sympathy for ‘the bankers’. Despite all the angst, our banks keep posting stellar profits. So maybe the next quarter won’t be as stellar, but I’ve little doubt the number will still begin with a ‘B’.
While I’m in the Grinch mood, no sympathy for BC either. While LNG is presumably less likely to be an issue for pollution, the cargo ships carrying it are potential oil spills waiting to happen. Just a tad hypocritical of them to bar any pipeline but still work towards shipping LNG.
Lastly, the dog in the photo of the day looks like it had a wonderful time playing in the mud:) Ah, the simple joys in life…..
#8 Crazy Canuck
Global investors don’t care much about sectors like energy simply because they already own this asset class and are relieved of concentration risk.
Prefs just keep pumping yield and provide a diversifierto ones portfolio.
I think this initial phase of the secular bear market has just about exhausted itself. Can expect a retrace that will get the permabulls excited again before the next drop. Target 16,000 on the DOW by mid 2020.
Garth I thought you said boc follows the fed 92% of the time! So where’s the ketchup?
All we need to run our economy is real estate! it is a myth we need to build other types of widgets! Look at China, the world’s number 1 economy. They are making an empire based on residential real estate so why can’t we?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BcyYyyaPz84
Here is an excellent video of the pride and quality workmanship that goes into Chinese buildings. If we strive for the same standard of care then our economy will also grow for years to come. We can do it!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XopSDJq6w8E
While LNG is presumably less likely to be an issue for pollution, the cargo ships carrying it are potential oil spills waiting to happen. ”
———————-
this is joke, right?
like when my car tire gets a leak and spills beer all over the road?
The Fed moved cause it was forced to, not because it wanted to, or fundamentals.
1) Trump told them not to, so in attempt to maintain a shred credibility, (you know, that independance bullshit) they moved.
2) The Fed knows whats coming, Ray Dalio’s: A (not so) beautiful deleveraging. To have the ammo to move down and stimulate, they must first, move up.
3) The Fed waited too long before starting and are now being forced to move, into the beginnings of a slow down (after a ten year bull). The markets clearly, don’t like it.
“First, Mr. Market has to get over being wrong. It was a dumb call to think the Fed would stand pat this week, but lots of people made it. So the sell-off will continue for a little while until stocks are too cheap to pass up. If the current correction worries you, stop looking. Like every other one which went before, it’ll pass. You only punt money when you sell, turning a paper loss into a real one. The advice stands: so don’t.”
Right on the money again Garth! We just finished adding more money to our RRSP portfolio’s for this year. Getting ready to add more to TFSA’s in January no matter what the price action is! While market prices continue to get discounted lower and lower KEEP BUYING MORE! We are picking up bargains at 2017, 2016 and even 2015 past valuations using fewer 2018 purchasing power dollars! What a gift! True wealth creation! Buying quality stocks, ETF’s and other Funds at lower prices rather than continuing to add to current positions at rising prices.
Life is good! Ka-Ching for the somewhat hidden Santa Clause rally for this household………….if you know what to do during these times!
@ #14 The Real Mark
My guess is because you stick to preposterous assertions despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary, like peak RE happened in 2013.
They mock you because constantly double down on invalid theories and never provide any proof. You basically just make stuff up.
Proof that the RE peak was in 2013??? Please provide it.
@ #5
“Only one thing to deal with Garth and his name is Trudeau.
Evoke the notwithstanding clause and ram that pipeline through to both coasts.”
———
Those pipelines will never be built.
Oil is over. $8 Trillion dollars have been divested from fossil fuels with the Norwegian Sovereign Fund leading the pack.
Albertans will be greatly affected as is already evident , and that doesn’t make me happy, but that province needs to start transforming its economy, something that should have been done 20 years ago. Also, Alberta is in need of a sales tax. The people of that province need to let go of this insane entitlement to no tax.
Oil is over, everyone knows it.
Gold will be a robust beneficiary in this rotation out of risk. Keep a foot in the pool so you don’t miss out. Also, energy companies will be approaching bargain prices in the future, but they aren’t there yet.
Garth, would you agree that from 2 years ago, that this real estate conflagration that we are looking at now is perhaps approaching your previous worst-case scenario?
How much have you adjusted your range of possibilities in the last 18 months?
There has been a sharp change in character of the Canadian real estate market in the last 60 days, and in the economy in general.
All support levels on the dow are now broken. This is it folks. I called it back in October.
More bargains to come, but wait until we double bottom to re-enter… That could take a while, be patient and watch the smart money flow index in the mean time.
Mr. Turner – I have many American friends, and we are always exchanging notes. (*They ALL read your musings – with relish).
These folks are in many large urban areas – LA, NYC, Boston, Chicago, Dallas, and Miami….and they are all noting a troubling trend – and we are seeing it here in Vancouver, too…people are homeless, and their numbers have exploded.
I added to your Offices appeal –
https://www.socks4soulscanada.com
This will help some folks – but – holy canoli – this is getting brutal.
The latest news of General Mattis walking away from Melon Head is tanking the market….and the whole meshpookah, is one big mess.
Suggestion: Stay in Lunenburg. Get the Amazons to chop a lot of wood, and you, Mrs. Turner, bandit and the crew, will be snug.
The World is having a collective nervous breakdown.
In spite of this craziness – Merry Christmas and have a very Happy New Year!!!
Meanwhile Grandad, having the long perspective in view, says don’t sell anything, and get ready to buy sometime in 2019.
Get out the eggnog!
Actually, Stan never said it was the Kitimat one. So I may owe an apology there.
An any case “BC just lost the $25 billion LNG thing Is not really correct. THE Kitimat LNG is still on, this was a separate proposal that was not likely to happen anyhow. $25 and $40 billion is a ton of money and it seems more likely there was ever only going to be one of these.
It appears BC lost a potential second LNG plant here.
Whatever, it sounded like BC lost the announced Kitimat project and that is not the case (not yet anyhow)
looks like i am closing a vape shop investment, does 400K gross, nets 250K preo tax. so 11% at the ccpc level.
he wants 80K, i offered 40K down and 40 in a year subject to 80 percent of the revenue number being met.
these are private investment deals out there, not life changing investment, but if this vape things continues it will be big, vape weed, conversion from cig business.
if i piss the 40 away , it is what it is, but it seems everyone is vapeing i see.
altria just bought 35% into juul a e cig firm. for crazy 12.8 billion us. at crazy valuation, i think the big cig guys are more worried about e cig than weed.
this vape thing might be lifetime of cash flow for me.
just throwing it out there. a 4.5% dividend yield is nothing, if you can get 3.5% no risk no trouble why go on a ride.
if you are going on a ride, shoot for the stars. life is short etc.
Finally Canadians are beginning to understand their fate. A deluded populace is about to get fleeced.
A bloated ignorant public sector is nothing to brag about. We have been living idiotically for 10 years. After the financial crisis we should have been cleaning house but high oil prices kept us drunk.
The stupidity orgy continued and fools bought multiple properties levered to the hilt as the government artificially stimulated the sector. Warren Buffet knows our real estate party is over and the real pain begins. The new generation does not have the stomach for what is to come and divorces will skyrocket. There always needs to be money for a high end purse. No one is going to sacrifice everything to pay down a difficult mortgage. Your inability to say no to them will ultimately cost you dearly as the lawyers get their day in the sun.
Downturn in Local Housing Markets Hit National Averages
https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/downturn-in-local-housing-markets-hit-national-averages/
Recession is coming. No question. Bank of Canada says “No way. Not here”. I beg to differ.
The bond market, the yield curve, the stock market, and oil all climbed up on the roof tops and started yelling bull sh*t. Heck even gold woke up from it’s slumber and slipped on a yellow vest. Last I saw it was walking down the street looking for cars to flip.
So who are you going to believe? Bank of Canada or the real world?
#26
Post from 2018…
https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.greaterfool.ca/2018/03/03/preferreds-101/amp/
Last post someone mentioned water loss in aquarur, if i did touch on that topic few months back regardin Californias aquafurs and hedge funds that are buying land and planting almond nuts that at this point are consuming upward of 10% water for hole state. While i was eating my beguete avocado toast with goooooat cheeeeease bacon and egg i sudnely remembered that takes 75galons of water to grow 1lbs of avocado. It funy how that never come to my climate change news feed…
Now that i am on water loss topic, i found very good gravlax recipe/curing process, i checked our my newest bach of salmon that is currently curing im fridge. Looks like looots of water came out, now iam wondering what to do with it.
Best gravlax recipe/curing process that i found so far.
https://youtu.be/74cY9PWcl4k
If you don’t feel like eating scandinavian food, here is similar schotish version of recipe/curing process with peated whiskey, i recommend Ardbeg 10 and maybe other peaty alternatives Laphroaig and Talisker. Lot cheaper if you buy them south of the border.
http://dianahenry.co.uk/recipes/whiskey-brown-sugar-cured-gravlax/
Oil is Over?
#34 Retaxis on 12.20.18 at 6:14 pm said:
Those pipelines will never be built.
Oil is over. $8 Trillion dollars have been divested from fossil fuels with the Norwegian Sovereign Fund leading the pack.
************************************
So if the Norwegian Sovereign Fund divested $8 trillion from fossil fuels (which I would guess is 10 times what it had in fossil fuels, but anyhow…) how many dollars would be pulled away from actual oil companies?
That’s right, zero, because one investor selling his shares in an oil company to another has no direct impact on the oil company.
Granted, it is a negative if institutional investors eschew fossil fuel and it does push energy share prices down if they sell their shares and make it more difficult to raise NEW money. But it does not pull any previously raised money away from oil companies.
On AB succession, ALBERTAN’S LACK IMAGINATION & the concept of PAYBACK:
Join the US but keep AB ways (kind of like a rich Puerto Rico that has mountains, prairie, rodeo and hockey…and Uncle Sam when you need a stealth fighter or a few tanks). That way you don’t mess up their flag with an additional star.
And the price to join is that the US has to build a pipeline to the Pacific Coast (WA state) with a few provisos and added bonuses.
1)The US must build the pipeline about 1 meter from the BC border starting in Montana, south from Cardston, ALL THE WAY to Bellingham. More specifically, you build it to Lynden and make it turn South along the I5 and put signs up every few miles that say “This is the pipeline BC did not want from AB” with an arrow pointing where the pipeline is buried.
2)After the pipeline is built, AB turns the oil tap off on the Trans Mountain Pipeline (Burnaby’s oil refinery no longer has oil to refine) or you sell it to BC at the World Oil price. The GasBuddy guy has a metaphysical heart attack on camera telling YVR what the new price will now be for a tank of gas, news at 11 (YVR HELOC applications go thru the roof, Cdn. Bankers happy).
PROVISO’S:
3)WA, ID and MN have to sell their gas and diesel to non-residents, such as British Colombian’s, at World Oil prices (or just use the BC price + a Carbon Tax Levy for good measure).
4)Kinder Morgan has to build the pipeline using the CDN $4.5 billion Trudeau gave them.
Everyone’s happy (besides YVR Bankers). Trudeau built a pipeline to the West Coast and he gets his Carbon Tax on both sides of the border. AB gets WTI and/or the World Oil price for its oil.
BONUS+ 1:
Albertan’s get to deduct mortgage interest from income (and enjoy lower Federal taxes).
Quebec doesn’t get its $1.4 Billion transfer payment ’cause Ottawa’s just come up $20 Billion short in net transfer payments…actually, Quebec has to forfeit what it’s already getting (8.4 MM people/37 MM people x $20 Billion = $4.5 Billion less).
SPROUT A FEW AB and do it.
And ya, I used to be a WCC Party member that contributed. NEP, Windfall Profit’s Tax, T1 middle finger from his train in Banff…and the common phrase of the times in Calgary “Last person to leave, don’t forget to turn the lights off.” said it all to me back then.
History does repeat, even the PM.
Stop Personating Me?
I always thought that the person using the word personate (which is a real word but which no one ever uses) was the imposter mocking Mark.
Imposter Mark, was I wrong? does the Real Marl actually say personate rather than impersonate?
Garth looks Russian …….. just saying.
“#33 When Will They Raise Rates? on 12.20.18 at 6:12 pm
@ #14 The Real Mark”
I laid out the case as to why peak RE was in the 2nd half of 2013, coincident with the Minister of Finance’s policy declaration that CMHC subprime mortgage insurance would not be expanding. I have also previously laid out data (and more pertinently, the lack of data and the various manipulations of the RE boards of the limited datasets they release) to show that 2013 marked the peak of pricing in Toronto/Vancouver on average individual identical properties.
Its no secret that average prices have risen since 2013, but for two primary reasons; a) the units that transact are more often than not heavily improved or are brand new due to the supply onslaught that has taken place in both cities due to high prices, and b) the mix of units themselves has shifted significantly as the result of the typical purchasers of “starter homes” being mostly locked out of the market due to higher finance costs and tighter CMHC subprime mortgage insurance costs.
I think a lot of the trolling that has taken place is rooted in denial by market participants. Even though the evidence was pretty abundant of price stagnation in the post-2013 peak era. The recent price crashes claimed actually aren’t as bad as implied, I might add, because most of what we’re seeing is the mix adjustments coming out.
If you don’t want to take my word for it, go over to the Howestreet YouTube channel and listen to Ross Kay for the past 2 or 3 years that he’s been doing interviews. Basically corroborates everything I’ve been saying here. Albeit he derived his beliefs from what he describes as analysis of the “sales chain”, while the datasets I tend to work off of are more macro in nature and are not terribly specific to individual properties.
Sweet Jesus. These days I wake up and I see I have lost more money (paper losses).
This must be what Smoking Man feels like every single night after the casino.
Smokey how do you handle it?
I sort of feel like Garth is calling me out.
Yeah, I miscalled the market. I thought the N.A. stock market low was last Tuesday. I also thought the Santa Claus rally would occur this week but it didn’t. Chicken Little is still running around crying out, “The sky is falling!”
I have a personal stake in these calls. I rebalanced my portfolio last Wednesday. I also rebalanced today. I bought up blue chip stocks on sale. Boo hoo.
I’m pleased with how my portfolio is doing in this downturn and even when I made a bad call. I designed it to be an all-weather portfolio. I spent over 100 hours creating it so I don’t like to talk about it. I wrote something earlier here on Greater Fool, though, so I can mention it again. It’s based on RIGS: Recession, Inflation, Growth, Safety.
I feel like all the math I’ve been doing is wrong. Can you deduct tax on the property tax for an investment property in Canada?
The fed will just keep raising until the economy goes into recession and then they will back off because “WTF The economy is in recession!”.
No economist or financial analyst can predict the future of economies and markets.
Sorry Garth. Your guys were massively wrong about Canada doing well in the later half of this year, but as I said no one can predict these things so why try.
Every thing that happens in economies he markets is a function of earnings and irrational exuberance and irrational fear.
Mostly irrational fear.
What i know is that commodity prices and some stocks are the lowest they have ever been, like ever. Some oil company stock prices are lower than they were after the 2008 mess and a real economic slowdown, and not the expected slowdown to happen in 2 years.
Funny to watch irrational fear driving these markets.
And the fed basing it’s decisions on pseudo stats like inflation and jobs growth and unemployment, and how many cats we
How many cats were spayed on Sunday in north Dakota.
Moral.
It’s all really bullshit.
Buy low, sell high.
Be diversified and balanced.
And when the 5 year Tbill goes to 5%, get the hell out of the markets and buy t-bills or goc bonds and forget about the wonderful world of the markets.
In 5 years it will all be run by AI algorithms anyways and unless you want Google to be you financial advisor, it’s best to get out.
I published a screenshot of 12 global real estate index charts while Trump was waging war on U.S. domestic and foreign policy today:
http://www.chpc.biz/history-readings/re-in-the-red
The charts are all dressed up like Santa Clause.
Does anyone else think that the TSX index is starting to look tempting at 14,141?
#34 Retaxis on 12.20.18 at 6:14 pm
Oil is over. Everybody knows is.
_—–_——————–
Yeah sure. Global demand is at its highest ever.
US producing more than ever.
Saudis turning on the taps to keep the world happy.
China using more than ever.
Third world using more than ever.
And while the world makes tons of money on the product, Canada virtue signals about how green we are. All the while importing more and more from the shitholes of the world to feed it’s SUV lovefest, and then lecturing Alberta about how they need a sales tax.
My god Canadians are a screwed up bunch.
Canada is the laughing stock of the world.
Its windier than a crowded elevator in Burnaby tonight!
A few people decided to get closer to the water……and had to be rescued by Helicopter……..
https://604now.com/white-rock-pier-waves-broken/
“Those pipelines will never be built.
Oil is over. $8 Trillion dollars have been divested from fossil fuels with the Norwegian Sovereign Fund leading the pack.
Albertans will be greatly affected as is already evident , and that doesn’t make me happy, but that province needs to start transforming its economy, something that should have been done 20 years ago.”
——————————-
I doubt it. When we switch to electric cars, etc where do you think electricity come from?
See below :
“Where does our electricity come from? Our electricity comes from a mixture of sources like coal, gas and nuclear power stations. We also use electricity from renewable energy installations including hydro power schemes and wind farms.”
We will still need oil. Unless we want to burn coal or build more nuclear power plants .
#58 Craig on 12.20.18 at 7:30 pm
Does anyone else think that the TSX index is starting to look tempting at 14,141?
—–
Wow some people don’t know whats in the TSX. Its all resource producers and banks that lend to resource producers and house hornies. That index is going to take it in the nads if our resources don’t get developed and RE takes a serious correction.
I like peoples rational for investing. hey the stock market is like it was in 2015. You obviously haven’t noticed the toxic govt we have in now.
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#34 Retaxis on 12.20.18 at 6:14 pm
Those pipelines will never be built.
Oil is over. $8 Trillion dollars have been divested from fossil fuels with the Norwegian Sovereign Fund leading the pack.
Albertans will be greatly affected as is already evident , and that doesn’t make me happy, but that province needs to start transforming its economy, something that should have been done 20 years ago. Also, Alberta is in need of a sales tax. The people of that province need to let go of this insane entitlement to no tax.
Oil is over, everyone knows it.
* * * * * * * *
Then why does the International Energy Agency forecast a demand increase of 1.4 Million barrels per day for 2019?
Why? Because oil is over? Not in our lifetime. Mankind will always use the easiest, most reliable energy sources available. When we run out of nat-gas and oil, it will be back to coal for us, and then wood, unless we figure out the the fusion thing or a dependable scale-able industrial size battery. Those things might be on the horizon, but they have been there for decades. Right no they are made of hopeium.
What won’t ever happen is people becoming resigned to freezing and starving in the dark. We do what we must. And so oil demand grows.
#48 Dolce Vita
It probably won’t assuage the AB butthurt, but PET threw the bird in BC – Salmon Arm to be precise. The NEP was a metaphysical flip off to your benighted province, I’ll grant you..
I knew the wheels were coming off the bus when Doug Rowat started referring to himself as Robax and said Ryan Lewenza might have a vanity license plate with InfLewenza on it.
Also yesterday was one of the five days a year I was on topic, while a bunch of other people were off topic discussing climate.
It’s a Christmas miracle…
M44BC
Stunning evidence of climate change (and it does) from almost 100 years ago:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dust_Bowl
“The drought and erosion of the Dust Bowl affected 100,000,000 acres (400,000 km2) that centered on the panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma and touched adjacent sections of New Mexico, Colorado, and Kansas.”
>> Toronto Trends: Toronto deets for Toronto peeps.
I always take what our rulers say and flip it around. Temporary = Permanent. Been saying this since first announced.
Careful where you buy or rent. This massive tent is multiplying Times 3. Will you be the lucky area selected for this vibrant addition?
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/project-comfort-aims-to-ease-concerns-ahead-of-temporary-shelter-opening-in-liberty-village-1.4943206
“The first respite centre is set to open next week in the parking lot of Lamport Stadium in Liberty Village. Two more locations at 351 Lakeshore Boulevard East and 701 Fleet Street are expected to open in January 2019. The insulated buildings are capable of housing 100 people each.”
I’m still wrong about deflation, gold and real estate
That’s why I read Garth’s Blog
Race to a million.
Well I’m not sure how I became the Pagan Saint for Poorness, but people keep asking for help with the more affordable side of things, and since my brain lives in my big toe I thought I would have a kick at it.
I doubt whether either of these two will get anyones heart racing, both could be bulldozed by the summer,who knows?
I have seen nicer ones go for less ,but maybe as I alluded to, someone plans to develop the site and build new.
The first case fought the market for six months,three price reductions before finding where the market’s at.
The second one, just the opposite,right price for right now and went straight away.
You can bend the truth but the market don’t lie…
M44BC
2841 e 14th Ave Vancouver.
Just sold for 1.08
Originally asking 1.28
Assessment 1.22
Asking history.
2018-06-12 : $1,288,000
2018-09-20 : $1,198,000
2018-12-04 : $1,138,000
https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/2841-east-14th-avenue
2254 e 24th ave, Vancouver.
Just sold for 1.04
Originally asking 1.05
Assessment 1.24
2018-12-04 : $1,059,900
https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/2254-east-24th-avenue
#58 Craig
All the major indices are on sale, not just the TSX composite. Pick your entry points.
Down the road this will prove to be a no brainer. Historically speaking.
In a world of Trump lies and trillion dollar Republican deficits, I love the smell of GIC’s on Christmas morning.
Nah Flop,
I respect your posts for the fact that you are educating us on what is happening on the West Coast real-estate, but this blog consists of all the misconceptions and ideologies on what is next. It is a perfect platform (thanks to Garth) for all of us to vent and educate. I do not agree with some of it but I respect it.
Hey, if the big one hits the West coast, when Richmond and Delta get liquefied due to stupid greedy laws that allowed buildings to be built there; where are the survivors going to go.
I would assume the next Province (Alberta); in which we would do everything possible to help fellow Canadians. If it just happened to be minus 30 here; then perhaps heating our cities with natural gas and filling our tanks with gasoline, and airplanes filling up with Alberta products is not such a bad thing.
As I mentioned many times before, I am all for a cleaner society but for god sake (not you Flop) look what is happening in your own province first; invest in what you beleive in; be reasonable.. We are way ahead of the game comparing to other countries. Plant a tree!!
http://fortune.com/2016/07/07/bridgewater-hedge-fund-ray-dalio/
Ray Dalio’s McDonald’s-Inspired Hedge Fund Is Crushing His Flagship Fund
By JEN WIECZNER July 7, 2016
Bridgewater Associates’ world’s largest hedge fund, run by Ray Dalio, is not only underperforming the market this year, but it’s lagging way behind another Bridgewater fund that basically runs itself.
Founded by Dalio in 1975, Bridgewater Associates is the biggest hedge fund firm on the planet with more than $150 billion in assets under management, and also runs the two largest individual hedge funds in the world, Pure Alpha and All Weather. The biggest, Bridgewater’s Pure Alpha, is also its most famous: With more than $62 billion in assets, Pure Alpha had made investors richer than any other hedge fund in history, reaping $45 billion in returns between its inception and the end of 2015, according to Bloomberg. This year, though, the fund has fallen 12% in the six months of the year—its worst first half performance in more than 20 years, The Wall Street Journal reported. (It may also have lost additional money to investor withdrawals, as the fund’s assets fell even more, down 25% from the $82.3 billion in the fund at the end of last year.)
Meanwhile, Bridgewater’s All Weather fund is crushing it. Younger and once much smaller than Pure Alpha, All Weather now has more than $60.7 billion in assets, according to Preqin. The fund returned 10% in the first half of this year, more than double the 4% return of the S&P 500. The kicker? All Weather is a passive strategy similar to the way index funds and ETFs do not have active managers.
Rather than chase home runs like the actively managed Pure Alpha portfolio, All Weather is designed to “do reasonably well” no matter what happens in the market or the economy: It holds stocks, bonds, commodities, and several types of debt, balancing the allocations so that the risk is split evenly between the different types of assets, and so that the fund should make money whether the economy grows or contracts, or whether inflation rises or falls….
The Fed increased rates because they know they have screwed pensioners but more importantly they know they have really screwed state and municipal pensions. Just take a look at California and Illinois. Not only that, they know that if they kept rates at low levels they would have no way to fight the next recession.
The EU and emerging market countries have been pleading with the Fed to not raise rates.
#51 The Real Mark on 12.20.18 at 6:53 pm
“#33 When Will They Raise Rates? on 12.20.18 at 6:12 pm
@ #14 The Real Mark”
I laid out the case as to why peak RE was in the 2nd half of 2013, coincident with the Minister of Finance’s policy declaration that CMHC subprime mortgage insurance would not be expanding. I have also previously laid out data (and more pertinently, the lack of data and the various manipulations of the RE boards of the limited datasets they release) to show that 2013 marked the peak of pricing in Toronto/Vancouver on average individual identical properties.
did not…did not…did not
No you didn’t and haven’t. That’s one of the reasons why your “personator” is so popular here.
If in fact you did provide backup and data, it would be a cinch for you to cut and paste and repeat it here tonight. But you won’t and can’t. I have no more time for you and am at a loss to understand why I wasted the three minutes I did on this reply. I’m deflated.
Those buying GICs aren’t considering that a Canadian dollar might not hold it’s value. Diversified means some unhedged funds out there in the world.
If the interest rates are pushed high enough the super debtors with a can’t happen to me attitude might just have to do a very ugly reality check. They won’t like it one bit.
Exxon cancelled their LNG project today but the Shell LNG project approved Oct 01/18 is still a go.
“A sudden, sharp or sustained plop in house prices here could lead to a loss of consumer confidence and spending as the ‘wealth effect’ of real estate blows up.” – Garth
—————————————————–
Yes, if the sky falls, then we’re all in trouble. Isn’t going to happen I’m afraid. People have foolishly been calling for a housing plop for many years. Ha. Houses have just continued to go up in price.
So I guess they will forever. Good thinking. – Garth
Recent sale report.
What’s happening in Coquitlam?
I dunno the last time I was out that way,such has been the building boom the last decade and a half, I very rarely venture more than 10 kms to work.
Because the luxury side of things is quietening down I am networking my best to try and make sure I have something to do next year.
I wouldn’t say I have gone full-blown bum kisser,but I got an interesting offer today and could be working for some people next year that I thought I never would.
Anyway, I found this case in Coquitlam to be interesting because the house is in decent shape for its age and they roughly only got back out of it what they put into it in the middle of 2015.
The details…
1387 Haversley Ave,Vancouver.
Paid 1.07
Originally asking 1.29
Just sold for 1.10
Assessment 1.41
So someone snapped this one up as a stocking stuffer for 22% less than assessed.
The seller lost at least 25k after expenses and I didn’t see to much mention of renovations and so perhaps they got off lightly but as I said the main reason for highlighting this one was it was rolled back to summer 2015 prices.
Still too high for most, but that’s where we’re at in a lot of other parts of the city as well…
M44BC
https://www.zolo.ca/coquitlam-real-estate/1387-haversley-avenue
#52 Steve French on 12.20.18 at 7:11 pm
Sweet Jesus. These days I wake up and I see I have lost more money (paper losses).
This must be what Smoking Man feels like every single night after the casino.
Smokey how do you handle it?
——————–
Just make up stories…
#51 The Real Mark on 12.20.18 at 6:53 pm
“#33 When Will They Raise Rates? on 12.20.18 at 6:12 pm
@ #14 The Real Mark”
I laid out the case as to why peak RE was in the 2nd half of 2013, coincident with the Minister of Finance’s policy declaration that CMHC subprime mortgage insurance would not be expanding. I have also previously laid out data (and more pertinently, the lack of data and the various manipulations of the RE boards of the limited datasets they release) to show that 2013 marked the peak of pricing in Toronto/Vancouver on average individual identical properties.
Its no secret that average prices have risen since 2013, but for two primary reasons; a) the units that transact are more often than not heavily improved or are brand new due to the supply onslaught that has taken place in both cities due to high prices, and b) the mix of units themselves has shifted significantly as the result of the typical purchasers of “starter homes” being mostly locked out of the market due to higher finance costs and tighter CMHC subprime mortgage insurance costs.
I think a lot of the trolling that has taken place is rooted in denial by market participants. Even though the evidence was pretty abundant of price stagnation in the post-2013 peak era. The recent price crashes claimed actually aren’t as bad as implied, I might add, because most of what we’re seeing is the mix adjustments coming out.
If you don’t want to take my word for it, go over to the Howestreet YouTube channel and listen to Ross Kay for the past 2 or 3 years that he’s been doing interviews. Basically corroborates everything I’ve been saying here. Albeit he derived his beliefs from what he describes as analysis of the “sales chain”, while the datasets I tend to work off of are more macro in nature and are not terribly specific to individual properties.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Or, if you agree with Occam’s Razor, Mark is wrong and desperately clinging to his thesis.
For the rest of us, there are numerous examples of same property/unit peaking between in 2016-17 (or 18 in some markets).
CPI as creatively and dynamically defined by stats Canada is around 2-3 %. It will always stay in that range given their conveniently changing ‘methodologies’
The (Real) inflation/aka cost of living is way above that.
Loonie just lost 1% against the euro in a single day.
————————
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/statistics-canada-family-income-survey-1.4437137
Median family net worth was $295.1 K last year, Statistics Canada says which is around 100 k per person.
Mean value is worthless as a measure as it includes the 1 % super-rich who skew the statistics and says nothing about the wealth distribution.
With you and Bill Gates in a room your mean net worth just ‘rose’ to 45 billions.
And that value includes the hugely overpriced over leveraged asset called real estate which comprises 75
% of that ‘worth’ so an average/median Canadian has 25 k in other assets.
Setting aside the fact that a house is not an asset but a necessity and liability, including maintenance and taxes, generates no income stream and that you still have to live somewhere on the remaining ‘wealth’ it turns out that the average Canadian is pretty poor considering the living standard and the cost of living rapid increase.
To summarize Canadian ‘wealth’: it is a fake value based on over-valuated housing and huge debt; majority of Canadians will never retire comfortably as there is no underlying economy to support such lifestyle, while majority of the young people will never find a decent well paying job to support and raise a family. Their perspective to raise kids in a ‘wealthy’ country is quickly diminishing despite all the land we have so we need immigrants to keep the nation from melting, unfortunately attracting predominantly poor immigrants due to unattractive economy and ultra expensive cost of living with a fake real standard.
—————————————
As per government bond ‘yields’, it reflects the expectation of the coming QE as started already by BoC buying MBS – the infamous Mortgage Backed securities in order to support bank profits while taking away their liabilities and risk, in addition to transferring it to the taxpayer/CMHC; soon purchases of government bonds by BoC will increase and the loonie will get creamed further.
US is raising rates and unfortunately Canadian mortgage rates follow the 10 years US treasuries, all BoC is doing by keeping CAD interest rates low and increasing our form of QE is to screw savers and beef up bank profits by increasing their margins. Expect higher fees at the banks while they pay nothing on your deposits.
Given that our competent PM stated recently that deficits don’t matter it seems there is some preparation for huge massive deficit increases going forward.
It is absolutely vital to keep the sheeple in the dark by lying and manipulation inflation numbers but that will be only short lived and won’t attract investors.
We will simply and quickly consume the remaining productive pockets of the economy by taxation and inflation, like a cancer eating all living cells until a potential and sudden collapse of the economy (which is currently mostly consumption driven by credit)
No sane person or investor will touch those bonds with a stick, the buyers will be BoC or speculators who profit by expected rate decreases that increase the value of the bond that will be repurchased eventually only by BoC as they need these ‘high quality’ bonds.
You can’t make a bond valuable in any way other than by giving decent yield. King of explains why no Warren Buffett, Jeff Gundlach or Bill Gross are interested in our ‘bonds’.
====================
Soon the benefit of ‘fresh’ air, fluoridated water and GMO food and the pleasure of watching our PM give away 50 million dollar cheques per tweet to no doubt worthy causes will be added to GDP along with the added pleasure of being able to consume pot which is absolutely priceless.
Combined with negative nominal interest rates and inflation north of 6-8 %.
There was a survey on yahoo.ca, over 95 % of Canadians feel that inflation is much higher than reported as CPI and almost no one (except a few pot heads on this blog) believe that there is ‘deflation’.
Bond prices have increased as money flows into fixed assets, lifting bond ETFs with them.
———————————————————-
That’s odd, aren’t bond prices supposed to drop when interest rates rise?
Canadian long-term yields are down, prices up. – Garth
Hi Everyone, what would you do with some spare dollars (about 25% of my portfolio) to add into this weakness and how fast should I pile it in? Hands and head already a bit sore from trying to catch the falling Yamaha but why stop now?
Are you lot actually losing money on this situation?
If you set yourself up right, you should be at around a 4-5% return for the year, not including dividends. And the cool thing about it is people continue to dump their equities, which means that a rare event is happening and the buy signal is flashing (yes foolish readers that is a play on a website that shall not be named).
Why is Apple pulling a “New Coke”?
Has anyone ever heard of a syndicated mortgage (like I said six months’ ago….you will).
How badly can you f*&k up a company and still have someone want to buy it (I don’t know, CBL?)
So now that people have realised that Toronto houses are really just sh*t piles of rotten brick, structurally unsound foundations full of roaches, flies and rats, people have to now start undoing all the weirdo renovations that were done during the “Victorian Wonderland” phase of the Toronto real estate run-up.
So all those exposed brick walls, that were created by tearing the drywall, insulation and vapour barriers out of old double brick houses, thereby creating a porous house, that will weep moisture between the wythes and leak air and cold like an uninsulated plank wood cottage, now have to be covered up again with rigid foam insulation, plastic sheathing and sheet rock.
All those weird attic rooms, created by tearing out insulated attics, raising roofs, and putting living spaces into places where they were never intended, thus causing ice build up on the roof, high heating bills and moisture damage, have to be removed and the attics and insulation put back in.
Because you can’t put lipstick on a pig.
Well, you can.
But man it’s an ugly thing to look at.
“#75 WUL on 12.20.18 at 8:41 pm
If in fact you did provide backup and data, it would be a cinch for you to cut and paste and repeat it here tonight. But you won’t and can’t. I have no more time for you and am at a loss to understand why I wasted the three minutes I did on this reply. I’m deflated.”
Don’t be deflated, there is already enough deflation around.
Peak prices were experienced in 2013. I would provide links to supporting data but I use crayons to draw my charts and the last time I scanned a crayon masterpiece not only did the crayon melt off the page and ruin my art, I couldn’t get the melted crayon off the scanner. My father was furious and hence grounded me for two weeks.
Thankfully I was permitted to listen to podcasts. If I had to go without access to the collection of Ross Kay on Howestreet podcasts, well I would be just a mess. Have I mentioned he’s my hero?
And in a few days Vancouver homeowners will get their property assessments showing a (likely) drop in price–at least in the detached market.
Maybe I don’t have to sit and listen to my sister-in-law brag about how much more “equity” she has in her house at Christmas this year.
RED ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT
We have entered uncharted territory. The US government faces shutdown tomorrow at midnight. The Secretary of Defence has quit. North Korea has just revealed it has gamed Trump and won. Putin is preparing new moves against Ukraine. Mueller is about to drop more bombshells. The markets are in trouble. The President’s most capable inner circle has disintegrated.
This is urgent now for everyone who wants to try to live through what is about to happen.
PREPARE
More updates coming soon.
RED ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT
Recent sale report.
I stated yesterday that you can get a Westside starter home for around 1.5 and this sale just came through bang on the number.
The details…
2519 Balaclava st,Vancouver.
Just sold for 1.5
Originally asking 1.58
Assessment 1.75
So it looks dated, but liveable.
Got the big rocks on the out side to keep Fred Flintstone and Barney Rubble happy.
Next year on the Westside we could see something go for around 1.25
Yabba Dabba Doo…
M44BC
https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/2519-balaclava-street
Wow, that was really good. It’s going to be tough for young people growing up with their parents’ false sense of financial security and lifestyle.
Just gonna leave this right here…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pBbvehbomrY
#35 Retaxis on 12.20.18 at 6:14 pm
Oil is over, everyone knows it.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Nope, oil is far too useful. If it didn’t exist as a natural organic product a Nobel Prize would have been handed out to the person who invented it.
I’d hazard to say that if electricity ever became insanely cheap and abundant from renewable resources it would only make sense to store excess renewable energy using a storage media such as recycled biomass into…wait for it… petroleum. That was the way Mother Nature did it, storing excess sunlight as fossil fuels.
Cue heads exploding….
Peak house was 2017. Sales dried up in April 2018. I wouldn’t be suprised if assessments won’t change from last years, as it will show July 2018 values. Most reductions came in September 2018 onward.
GREAT!!!!
TRUDEAU is OK with getting the whole country HIGH on weed.
But he can’t get a pipeline built, chases away the Arabs from General Dynamics, and let’s GM get away with murder.
Oh how our Country’s Leadership is so great….
TRUDEAU IS FAKE NEWS!!!!!
I was read an article about comedian’s favorite jokes which I thought were lousy. So here goes mine. A man walks into a bar with a small Chihuahua and goes to the only man standing. He asks “Do you own the large pitbull tied up outside?” Yeah. Well, my dog just killed it. The guy says “How could that mouse of yours have killed my dog?” Well, he choked to death after trying to swallow her.
The stock market is killing me – shades of 2008 but lesser so far. The big difference I see between now and then is the extreme leverage people have plowed into. I can’t see how people will borrow more now to buy. Hedge funds are running scared to reduce their leverage and shadow banks are counting potential losses. Sad to say, the shadows got their money from the big banks. Another bigger credit crisis looms. It will be sad to watch FIRE (finance, insurance & real estate) choke to death because it means so much to Ontario/BC. You may say it sucks to be an Albertan but I see worse for others coming because of your bets on non- productive assets and share buybacks.
To leave Canadian Confederation will not be easy – just look at Brexit. Many say because we are landlocked it is hopeless – I think not. The rest of Canada will miss us if we leave. Remember, my Ab/Sk families always let the max sons go to fight for Canada – amazingly they all came back (with scars). I refuse to stand with people who think we are selfish and greedy. I wonder if God had protected Isaac Brock/Tecumseh or Louis Riel/ Poundmaker where Canada would be. I hope for better.
52 Steve French on 12.20.18 at 7:11 pm
Sweet Jesus. These days I wake up and I see I have lost more money (paper losses).
This must be what Smoking Man feels like every single night after the casino.
Smokey how do you handle it?
…
Alien DNA buddy, I never lose so I cant relate and advise you on your problems .
On xmas day, I will post a link right here to a free e book that explains it all.
Exxon Mobil is pulling a pin with BC LNG, that surprises me. I’m betting it surprises Trans Canada Pipelines as well. This makes me think Energy East will gain more support in the near future, especially out west if TC sits idle in construction. I’ve always thought it was a good idea for Canada as a whole, why import oil if we don’t have to, to me it makes no sense. Trans Canada already has the right of ways… why not.
Even so, oil investors are going to have to come to grips with 2 key problems concerning supply/demand and they aren’t far away:
– electric cars/trucks
– C02 pollution
I’ve been asked about electric cars and solid state batteries (James I think)… its the CEO’s of the world’s car manufacturers that we have to pay attention to. The CEO of Ford is pushing to get electric, self driving cars to market by 2021. Its not a leap to think that by 2022 at least half of the brands of North American manufacturers will offer full electric cars and trucks. Ford as far as I know is sticking to a hybrid only F-150 in 2020. China is looking at 1 in 5 cars manufactured full electric by 2020.
The bottleneck in electric cars has always been batteries. That’s changed, the ranges are 330 km’s and growing with lithium improvements but solid state could change everything. The preamble on SS Batteries:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ifLxkO0w6B4
Enwiki backs up everything just said for a good read here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solid-state_battery
Goodenough’s #2 is worth a listen even though she’s not a born communicator. Scientists are great with beakers and slides and testing hypothesis, maybe not so great at communicating their findings, no surprise but I wander. What she’s saying regardless is simple. Solid state batteries have near double the charge capacity with way less risk (no heat issues) and superior degrading but this remains to be seen in the market place.
Pure research scientists publish their findings in journals and smart corps take it and incorporate it into working concepts. From what I’ve gleaned, concept to prototype to testing is about 5 years and from there, 2 years to produce a factory with all the bugs out. From there, to make a clone factory anywhere in the world…. about 9 months. So, 8 years to mass production give or take. Concept to tested product can be shortcut but if a factory produces a flop product that say… can’t take the cold or vibration under typical to extreme working conditions, the recalls will seriously set back the corp or spin it into bankruptcy depending so here’s how I think it will play out with SS batteries. We’ve had science hail the merits of SS batteries since 2014 according to the link above.
There is a good chance that SS batteries will hit the marketplace by 2021 but what could delay SS batteries becoming mainstream is the threat of better quality SS batteries making the first introductions inferior product even though it would likely blow away lithium. 2023… 2024…. 2025 is likely the year of SS batteries taking over the electric car market and the demand in new cars will come first with replacing lithium batteries in older electric cars ramping up numbers beginning around 2027.
The implications to Lithium as a commodity aren’t good in 5 to 6 years, but with SS batteries to technology its great! Electric cars could double their range, laptops and tablets will become way easier to use… cel phone battery life will virtually double and won’t have degrading issues like we do with lithium, these changes are great for the future and the investor really has to pay attention. In the next generation battery tech will energize the markets in a big healthy way.
I think crystal will become a better substitute than glass… durability under extreme conditions will make it so and its so needed tech advances in batteries, so important because its ultimately great for the environment but it comes at a cost to those invested in oil.
My point is this. Get oil to tidewater, the money is spent on production, heavy crude, synthetics, we will still need it in plastics and cars less and less for the next 10 years so demand will weaken but whatever we decide, prepare for oil’s heyday to be short lived. Its up in the air what kind of market penetration electric cars will have by 2030… some think it will only be 25%, others like the CEO’s of car manufacturers, more than 50% knowing the average gasser lasts 15 years and its wore out. If the CEO’s are right and they should be and we stop electing crooked turn coat liar puppets to big oil and Putin oil and murdering Saudi oil like puppet Trump (what a shit show) and needed responsible government gets behind it, it will happen.
What will that do to oil? The most expensive produced oil will get shut in, that’s what. Look at U.S. shale production as an example. Is it cheaper to produce than the tar sands? Cheaper than ocean production? Absolutely. Cheaper than Saudi oil? Nope. Investors and Canadians in general really need to get their heads around the fact that major changes in energy consumption are coming and not all of them good for the current status quo. I feel for those who’s livelihood is in the industry I really do, but… its not the future.
And the environment… its going to take more than electric cars to give humanity a chance to avoid catastrophe. We need to stop burning coal and go all green to generate big power globally but this can’t happen without high efficiency energy storage and we’re running out of time. We need to eat far less meat (its a no brainer for health anyway)and slow down on natural gas as well, in a big way. The transition will not be easy or orderly as there will be winners and losers and some highly concentrated wealth won’t give up their cash cow without a fight.
I’m hoping humanity everywhere starts to finally see it for what it is, a matter of survival or plans for retirement and the good life, it will end up as being noise drowned out by deadly silence. I really hope humanity is better than that. But when I look at how someone like Trump came into power and still has power, I think… maybe not. In WWII, Germany smoked Europe because Europe didn’t realize it was in a war. The only thing that saved England was water. We are in a different war now with a completely different enemy and battlefield and its global. How many of us realize it?
Interesting that no one here mentioned our beloved Home Capital Group!
https://business.financialpost.com/news/fp-street/berkshire-hathaway-reducing-home-capital-stake-to-less-than-10-per-cent
This stock sell-off is the market saying it expects worse economic times in the form of lower profits, Captain Obvious, thus the stock prices are reflecting this.
They’ve been wrong before but this unwinding is pretty sustained. Despite what you say Garth, I think American’s smell Recession in the air and are impounding that into the value of stocks.
Although and as you say correctly the market comes back eventually, so patience, and you only lose when you monetize the losses.
Learned that lesson in the early 80’s (had mutual funds, sold off during the crash only to see them bounce back in 5 years time to near triple the value – did I ever feel stupid back then…no Internet or your Blog, doom and gloom only and then mistrust by near all of “Investment Advisers”).
#65 Sold Out
That was glib on your part.
You do realize that the Windfall Profits Tax of the early 80’s was squarely aimed at transferring oil profits out of AB and using them to subsidize gasoline prices in vote rich ON and PQ. PET and Lalonde’s master plan.
In fact, an additional $20 billion (back then or $47 billion in 2018 dollars) OVER AND ABOVE regular transfer payments were taken out of AB in a matter of a few years and sent to Ottawa for “redistribution”.
Had that been done to any other Province back then, they would have been reduced to 3rd World Nation status including Supernatural BC, threadbare PQ and “a place to stand, a place to grow…with the money of others” Ontar-rare-eeo.
If anyone deserved to put “Je me souviens” on their car license plates back then it would have been Albertan’s. And I remember well.
And who give’s a rats ass about where PET’s middle finger was revealed, that was PET and his response to Western Alienation & NEP. Details people always get in the way of the bigger picture thinking they have won some precision points in the minutiae department.
Push come to shove, AB gets hosed when it comes to oil. Here we are, YET AGAIN, near 40 years later…
Why Albertan’s want to remain in a Confederation dead set at sabotaging its financial well being is beyond me. Defy’s all economic logic and rational thought.
“game of audit roulette”
A Grant Thornton spokesman said the company is “disappointed with the most recent decision regarding this matter, which dates back almost 20 years, and is reviewing its options for appeal.”
“Accounting firm Grant Thornton must pay $100 million in damages to a Northern Kentucky hotel and casino owner for “egregious and highly reprehensible conduct,” the Kentucky Supreme Court has ruled.
Grant Thornton’s Cincinnati office had marketed a tax shelter strategy to William Yung designed to transfer millions of dollars from the Cayman Islands – where Yung has holding corporations – without paying taxes.
Accounting firm Grant Thornton must pay $100 million in damages to a Northern Kentucky hotel and casino owner for “egregious and highly reprehensible conduct,” the Kentucky Supreme Court has ruled.
Grant Thornton’s Cincinnati office had marketed a tax shelter strategy to William Yung designed to transfer millions of dollars from the Cayman Islands – where Yung has holding corporations – without paying taxes.”
https://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/local/northern-ky/2018/12/13/kentucky-supreme-court-reinstates-100-million-judgment-against-firm/2302938002/
Yes, if the sky falls, then we’re all in trouble. Isn’t going to happen I’m afraid. People have foolishly been calling for a housing plop for many years. Ha. Houses have just continued to go up in price.
So I guess they will forever. Good thinking. – Garth
—————————————-
With all due respect Garth, same could be said about the stock market.
Historically, investing in the market may have yielded a slightly better return average % (vs. GTA) , but you can’t live in your bonds or ETFs. You can rent, but the combination of solid asset, better secured livability and forced savings makes a strong case for home ownership.
I know you don’t hate real estate, you just want people to buy when they can afford it; which is tough in the GTA for some. In that case, it’s rent or move away.
For those who speculate and flip, I have no sympathy for you during periods of correction. You gambled. Live in your home and load up your TFSA instead.
rationalization is the saviour of self respect!
abroad and within
iowa
2015:He declared: “I will be the greatest jobs president that God ever created … I will bring jobs back.”
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/dec/21/trump-siemens-factory-union-jobs
======================
The lawsuit alleged that during the 2016 campaign, Trump received more than $2m at a fundraiser in Iowa and the money went to his foundation. The lawsuit said Trump’s campaign manager, Corey Lewandowski, determined when and where money would be given away.
At least five $100,000 grants were made to groups in Iowa in the days immediately before the 1 February 2016 Iowa caucuses.
In November, Justice Scarpulla found that the president was not “immune” from state lawsuits, as Trump has claimed in other litigation.
=============
A report from Good Jobs Nation shows that, instead, the Trump administration has rewarded Siemens with $760m in lucrative contracts. Even worse, the report shows close to 8,000 jobs have been outsourced from Iowa since Trump was elected, including almost 2,000 jobs by federal contractors.
==========
The November 2017 report found that outsourcing of American jobs by federal contractors rose to the highest annual level on record in Trump’s
first year in office…
TABLE ONE: Jobs Offshored and Contract Value Awarded to Major
Federal Contractors Under Trump
http://goodjobsnation.org/content/uploads/2018/08/Broken-Promises2.pdf
==============
Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, which outlaws bribery abroad—-
2009 bribery –
The payments, he says, were vital to maintaining the competitiveness of Siemens overseas, particularly in his subsidiary, which sold telecommunications equipment. “It was about keeping the business unit alive and not jeopardizing thousands of jobs overnight,” he said in an interview.
Foreign the Justice Department allowed Siemens to plead to accounting violations because it cooperated with the investigation and because pleading to bribery violations would have barred Siemens from bidding on government contracts in the United States. Siemens doesn’t dispute the government’s account of its actions. Albert J. Stanley, a legendary figure in the oil patch and the former chief executive of the KBR subsidiary of Halliburton, recently pleaded guilty to charges of paying bribes and skimming millions for himself.
http://www.pbs.org/frontlineworld/stories/bribe/2009/02/at-siemens-bribery-was-just-a-line-item.html
========
“When Daphne Caruana Galizia was assassinated she was working on the biggest data leak she had ever received. She was reviewing thousands of Electrogas documents given to her by a source. That the director of Electrogas has been exposed as 17 Black’s UBO could also have serious implications on the investigation into Daphne Caruana Galizia’s assassination”.
17 Black scandal has implications on assassination investigation – Casa tells EU Justice Chief
Strasbourg, 12.11.2018 – 15:27
German authorities have been requested to investigate bribery in commercial business transactions in relation to Siemens’ involvement in bribery allegations relating to the company 17 Black, which emails have shown promised kickbacks to top government officials.
Siemens is a shareholder in Electrogas – the company behind Malta’s power station project.
Electrogas director and chief executive of the Tumas Group Yorgen Fenech has been exposed as the mysterious owner of the secret Dubai company 17 Black in a probe by the Times of Malta and Reuters.
=====
Friday, November 9, 2018, 12:00 by Jacob Borg
Exclusive: 17 Black owner identified as local power station businessman
It was named in leaked e-mails as one of two companies that would pay $2 million to Schembri’s and Mizzi’s Panama companies
https://www.timesofmalta.com/articles/view/20181109/local/exclusive-17-black-owner-identified-as-local-power-station-businessman.692998
Siemens has received $1.5bn in public subsidies over the past 20 years. Earlier this year the Siemens CEO, Joe Kaeser, praised Trump’s tax cuts, which decreased the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%, claiming they would lead to job growth. According to Siemens’ 2018 annual report, the company is saving about $500m annually due to Trump’s tax cuts.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/dec/20/a-dirty-deal-wave-of-siemens-plant-closures-hits-latest-victims-in-the-us
====================================
https://corpwatch.org/article/forgiving-siemens-unraveling-tangled-tale-german-corruption-greece
May 11, 2018 – Criminal appeals court in Athens found ex PASOK minister Mantelis guilty of money laundering for having accepted 230K bribes by SIEMENS.
@#52 Steve French
“Smokey how do you handle it?”
++++
Alcohol?
@#98 Crazyfox
Apparently where you live.
Denial river flows through Babylon
Every year Reporters Without Borders (RSF) compiles an annual round-up of abusive treatment and deadly violence against journalists as a direct result of their journalistic work. The report states that murders, imprisonment, hostage-taking and disappearances of journalists worldwide have all increased.
Eighty journalists were killed this year, 348 languish in a prison, and another 60 are being held hostage, according to the data presented by RSF which said it showed an unprecedented level of hostility towards people working in the media.
Crazyfox, maybe you need to get out once in a while instead of reading Leap Manifesto all day and night.
You are plain wrong about everything. Oil is not going away, renewables will never be more than maybe 20% of our energy mix. Renewables can never be base load so must be backed up with conventional sources making it even more expensive. Windmills have a chance at base load addition but NIMBYs will be shutting those down. There are 2 billion more people coming on this planet. Think they can afford solar panels.
Natural gas is actually the only solution to whatever problem you apparently keep seeing. Its super abundant cheap, works great for base load easy transportation, low emissions.
#58 Craig
Does anyone else think that the TSX index is starting to look tempting at 14,141?
——————————————————————-
Nope. Still over priced.
Wait until it drops to the 11,000’s or 12,000’s. That’s when you load up.
Like during many periods between 2010 and 2015 (not to mention 2009 when it was totally in the sewer).
It historically has dropped way down, before climbing higher.
Have patience. It’s on its way down to the high 12,000’s.
https://www.forecast-chart.com/historical-tsx-composite.html
If Saudi Arabia’s hu-people rights record is such a concern to Mr. Socks, why doesn’t he ban Saudi oil imports?
Ohh… I know… Quebec has 40 LIBERAL MP’s. Alberta has 3. Do the math and see who gets unethical dirty, foreign oil that supports terrorism dressed up as eco-friendly because it doesn’t use (much) pipeline.
And look at who pays for Quebec’s sanctimonious tongue wagging and gets screwed.
MAGA! Make Alberta Great Again!!
Garth, dogs
Could it be that the Toronto rental market might bring the whole thing down due to unsustainability. Could it be the trigger that creates the landslide.
Toronto condo owner investors are barely affording their mortgage payments and cash flow negative with the rents already.
Toronto condo renters are barely affording the rent as well that only provides cash flow negative Revenue to the owner investor landlords.
Is it possible that the renters will default on the rent payments which will cause the owner investors default on their Bank payments??? And start the whole thing cascading???
By the way , my wife didn’t get the condo she was hoping to get, sheesh!!! thank God… I talked her out of it but she will get the urge again if prices rise over the next 6 months.
By the way..
People living outside the GTA look at the situation in Toronto as surreal! They refuse to come to the city due the housing issue and would not get involved.
The Divide in house prices between the GTA and outside the GTA is astounding. Doesn’t matter whether it’s the rest of Ontario or the entire continent. Other than Vancouver which is crashing like a stone right now. go figure .
Here are your sale opportunities, if you have the guts, get in there.
Facebook down 39%
Citigroup down 35%
Apple down 33%
Amazon down 29%
Home Depot down 24%
Walmart down 21%
Or is there something else wrong in the market. I don’t know…how about fake recovery funded by QE now being removed at the same time raising rates with no justification. FED gets it wrong everytime.
#30 NothingBurger on 12.20.18 at 5:56 pm
All we need to run our economy is real estate! it is a myth we need to build other types of widgets! Look at China, the world’s number 1 economy. They are making an empire based on residential real estate so why can’t we?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BcyYyyaPz84
Here is an excellent video of the pride and quality workmanship that goes into Chinese buildings. If we strive for the same standard of care then our economy will also grow for years to come. We can do it!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XopSDJq6w8E
=================
Wow. This guy is stupid as hell. China has a lot more than just residential RE. They have all kinds of manufacturing industries, but there is technically nothing in Canada.
Re: #8 Crazy Canuck on 12.20.18 at 5:01 pm
“They” can only let the world price of oil fall so far at which point it puts the U.S. banks in jeopardy just like before. So you can be assured the U.S. central bankers will only let oil prices fall so far. Note don’t follow the heresay or supply demand side that will just throw you off.
#64 CEW9 on 12.20.18 at 7:49 pm
#34 Retaxis on 12.20.18 at 6:14 pm
Oil is over, everyone knows it.
* * * * * * * *
Then why does the International Energy Agency forecast a demand increase of 1.4 Million barrels per day for 2019?
Why? Because oil is over? Not in our lifetime. Mankind will always use the easiest, most reliable energy sources available.
____
Not to mention the most energy dense, highest EROEI energy source humans have ever known, and it’s seemingly limitless applications in the form of lubricants, plastics, and a host of other uses.
Oil is nothing less than a Civilization creating substance – a one time bonanza of energy and products never to be seen again – the product of a massive prehistoric Global warming event, subsequent anoxic oceans, and millions of years. We would not be where we are today without Oil, period. The true value of Oil has never been reflected in the markets. Future generations will be saying “They just burned it!?”
All renewable technology pales in comparison to Oil on every single front – except emissions.
Oil is so much more than just cheap fuel – so it will never be “over” – ever. It’ll just become more expensive – thereby reflecting more closely its true value to society.
We all know that i am inarticulate, illiterate probably dikleksik vilage idiot of comment section. Generally I like to learn, and when and i find something that interests me, i try to learn about it much as i can and also ill try to get best understanding of topic that that my lowish iq alows me.
Using gargler is my first choice, and very often i try to get in touch with an “expert” in field, i hate to admit that some of thos expetrs are just BS-ers. Non BS-ers ofter reply short to the point, others write ad nausioom…
I can just imagine those experts, non BS-ers, reading my emails for first time, seing their faces and reactions on spelling, grammar and sentence construction would be pricles. But expert in something always can cut thru noise and extract point regardles how funy and conveluted question is, and provide easily understandable answer.
Funny enough today i found out that solid state batteru uses Lithium to probably in same quantites as “regular” lion battery. I believe that expert would never say that lithium as commodity is in decline, becaus its hard to believe that litium it will be abandoned becaus same amount od litiom is used in “regular” and solid stated batteries, especially now that many thing are put in place for litium mining, extraction and manufacturing.
Some.otjer more specialized more expensive to produce solid state will gain place in market, but technology scalability is in favor of lithium.
First hand i know its easy to predict future 10-15yrs from now try doing that for 6-12 months, and if you can you can time market. Apparently very small amount of people can do that, iam thinking they are very humbeleted as person. They don’t showe ther opinions down people’s trot as a truts.
Luckily for me iam nonanonimus, to some degree, vilage idiot so i can write what ever i think it makes sense. Nice thing about being working poor is that you have nothing to lose so shitting my pants over apocalyptic events dont disturb me. Like those poor young man during wwi that were joining army just escape factory work that being canon fader is more appling than grueling factory work…
Climate change bring it on, i know what my buggest fear is and its not what eloquentist elitist fear.
Welome to the not so distant future version one.
https://youtu.be/aBD30p1tUgg
And version two.
https://youtu.be/60V3JFUPvIE
Bit darkish but we are being told it’ll be like this if we don’t pay up, and if we do. What to do iam wondering… Fear sels, sex sels more, but opportunity is gone now that we all went genderless.
#89 Trumpocalypse2018 on 12.20.18 at 10:34 pm
RED ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT
We have entered uncharted territory. The US government faces shutdown tomorrow at midnight. The Secretary of Defence has quit. North Korea has just revealed it has gamed Trump and won. Putin is preparing new moves against Ukraine. Mueller is about to drop more bombshells. The markets are in trouble. The President’s most capable inner circle has disintegrated.
This is urgent now for everyone who wants to try to live through what is about to happen.
PREPARE
More updates coming soon.
RED ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT
***
You’re a moron.
#41 crossbordershopper on 12.20.18 at 6:27 pm
looks like i am closing a vape shop investment, does 400K gross, nets 250K preo tax. so 11% at the ccpc level.
he wants 80K, i offered 40K down and 40 in a year subject to 80 percent of the revenue number being met.
these are private investment deals out there, not life changing investment, but if this vape things continues it will be big, vape weed, conversion from cig business.
if i piss the 40 away , it is what it is, but it seems everyone is vapeing i see.
altria just bought 35% into juul a e cig firm. for crazy 12.8 billion us. at crazy valuation, i think the big cig guys are more worried about e cig than weed.
this vape thing might be lifetime of cash flow for me.
just throwing it out there. a 4.5% dividend yield is nothing, if you can get 3.5% no risk no trouble why go on a ride.
if you are going on a ride, shoot for the stars. life is short etc.
—————————————————————
What percentage of the business are you buying? With out knowing that, these numbers are meaningless.
#35 Retaxis,
“$8 Trillion dollars have been divested from fossil fuels with the Norwegian Sovereign Fund leading the pack.”
You know this also means that someone else bought $8 Trillion dollars worth of fossil fuels, right?
“Oil is over, everyone knows it.”
And of course you also know that oil production is over 100 million barrels per day, highest it’s ever been, right? And that the population of the world is still going up … and the developing world is “developing”, as in attempting to have more people join the middle class (ie use more energy).
Just asking.
Buffett exits Home Capital
#99 Greaterfool on 12.21.18 at 3:48 am claimed:
Interesting that no one here mentioned our beloved Home Capital Group!
*************************
Already mentioned a few times when the news broke.
The quotes from Buffett in the Home Capital news release make it abundantly clear that he is leaving because his offer to buy an additional 20% of shares was (foolishly, even greater foolishly) rejected by shareholders.
Buffett is quoted saying: “shareholders did not approve the additional investment and, as a result (coupled with a fullrepayment of Berkshire’s credit line) Berkshire’s investment in Home is now not of a size to justify
our ongoing involvement.”
Extremely clear that Buffett was snubbed because his second purchase would have been at a bargain price. That bargain was only because he and he alone rescued the company, and ended its run on the bank situation, with his first purchase.
On top of the snubbing Home’s substantial issuer bid provided Buffett with an exit strategy when he otherwise held too many shares to try to sell on the market.
Nothing to see here except the stupidity of Home Capital share holders in rejecting Buffett’s second equity investment in the late Summer of 2017.
There is no indication whatsoever that the exist has anything to do with Canadian home prices.
What is Sold must be Bought
#120 Josh in Calgary on 12.21.18 at 10:36 am
#35 Retaxis,
“$8 Trillion dollars have been divested from fossil fuels with the Norwegian Sovereign Fund leading the pack.”
You know this also means that someone else bought $8 Trillion dollars worth of fossil fuels, right?
************************************
Good comment Josh. Apparently he did not know.
But the financial press repeats this daily with the completely impossible idea that “stocks sold off” as if every stock sold was not also purchased. They mean the price was bid down.
Also I think we can be sure, without any need to check, that the $8 trillion, if it is accurate at all, must be the total wealth fund not just the part that was in energy as claimed.
#53 Long-Time Lurker on 12.20.18 at 7:15 pm
I sort of feel like Garth is calling me out.
Yeah, I miscalled the market. I thought the N.A. stock market low was last Tuesday. I also thought the Santa Claus rally would occur this week but it didn’t. Chicken Little is still running around crying out, “The sky is falling!”
I have a personal stake in these calls. I rebalanced my portfolio last Wednesday. I also rebalanced today. I bought up blue chip stocks on sale. Boo hoo.
I’m pleased with how my portfolio is doing in this downturn and even when I made a bad call. I designed it to be an all-weather portfolio. I spent over 100 hours creating it so I don’t like to talk about it. I wrote something earlier here on Greater Fool, though, so I can mention it again. It’s based on RIGS: Recession, Inflation, Growth, Safety.
***
Wow you are so cool. You already spent all that energy talking about it – not sharing it doesn’t make it bullet proof. Neither does your 100 hrs unfortunately.
Fake News of BC LNG $25 billion loss?
(By the way, BC just lost the $25 billion LNG thing.)
Sorry, but I call that fake news as the only project that was a go was Kitimat and that is still a go. I am disappointed that the claim here was left after I pointed out the Exxon cancellation of a second LNG project was not the Kitimat project and so I think the statement I quote here was misleading at best.
Pulling out of the EA is a project cancellation. Nothing fake about that. – Garth
Our species is downright lucky to have a substance like oil available. It has revolutionized our existence. Wonderful products are made from it and people have been lifted out of poverty and subsistence living because of it. We are stupid as hell to turn our backs on it. Sure use renewables where it makes sense, but to try and supplant our most prolific energy source is insanity.
The dog probably live in BC..
BC dog! LOL
@117 NoName;
(not a battery expert, but way back when I was pretty good at chemistry in Uni…)
Lithium is the smallest metal atom around. Lots of them in a small space. Which, to greatly simplify, means that they are great for batteries.
If you look at the periodic table, the columns mean something (study chemistry to find out!). You’ll find Lithium at position 3, after Hydrogen and Helium.
If you are at all interested; a while ago I found in an airport bookstore a book called the “Disappearing Spoon” which outlined the discovery of atoms and the formulating of the periodic table, in a VERY readable way. It also described why Helium is found in rocks, and not in the atmosphere. Stuff like that.
Chemistry is fun!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0v78RtHApy0
Word is out Smoking Man that your wife has left you all alone now. Did she find a real man whose much younger, that doesn’t drink or gamble?
#120 Josh in Calgary
An excellent response to #35 Retaxis, but wasted, I fear.
#4 MF on 12.20.18 at 4:47 pm
“The Fed ignored what other people fret over. ”
-It was an awesome move. Powell is doing a great job.
Holding back on the rate hike would have eroded confidence in the Federal Reserve institution as people would believe they are politicized, too squeamish for criticism, short sighted, and incompetent.
ZIRP has created bubbles and distorted markets everywhere. The FED just showed it is trying to administer the medicine.
I wish “our central bank” was as smart, but “our central bank” seems politicized, too paralyzed by fear to act and be criticized, short sighted, and incompetent.
MF
Everything MF said.
For the first time since Volcker, the Fed is chaired by someone who is less interested in micromanaging immediate growth and inflation (i.e. the “dual mandate”), and is more interested in ensuring long term monetary stability.
Also for the first time since Volcker, Powell seems almost happy to serve Wall Street to the wolves in order to get there. Similar to Volcker, he might also end up serving short-to-medium term economic growth, and the sitting president’s chances of re-election, to the wolves as well.
Thus far his task has been made relatively easy with unemployment sitting at 3.7%. Let’s just hope he holds his nerve when the recession hits. Ask John Crow (or Volcker) how much fun it was to explain and defend rate increases when unemployment was climbing toward the double digits, while people were losing their homes, and while every single academic economist, bank official, CEO, and talking head in the country was screaming at him to reverse course. (Answer: not fun)
Being diversified is goooood.
ExxonMobil
A $500 million joint venture with Synthetic Genomics to genetically engineer photosynthetic algae to produce renewable crude from sunlight and carbon dioxide.
Royal Dutch Shell
Purchased a 44% stake in solar developer Silicon Ranch for $217 million, acquired on-site power generation management company MP2 Energy.
Chevron
Small investments in projects spanning wind power, solar, and geothermal that can power a combined 113,000 U.S. homes; leader in renewable diesel infrastructure.
BP
Owns 1.4 gigawatts (GW) of American wind power and solar leader Lightsource BP; 50-50 joint venture with DuPont (DowDuPont) in next-generation renewable fuels.
Total SA
Total Energy Ventures has invested roughly $160 million in 20 start-ups spanning solid-state lithium ion batteries, microbial fuel factories, and enhanced cellulosic sugar recovery. Owns 56% of solar panel manufacturer SunPower.
https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/06/04/big-oil-is-investing-billions-in-renewable-energy.aspx
i think one of the cars in days of tunder was exxon…
ExxonMobil is quietly allocating $1 billion per year to conduct basic research in low-carbon technologies. While that makes it unlikely that any products will be commercialized in the next decade, some of the highest-impact technologies in use today sprung from basic research.
The oil supermajor has a heavy focus on synthetic biology in particular. It hopes to prove the commercial feasibility of deploying genetically engineered algae in large outdoor farms capable of producing 10,000 barrels per day of renewable crude from sunlight and industrial CO2. If it can achieve that, then the modular design could scale to much larger levels.
ExxonMobil is also developing genetically engineered microbes with Renewable Energy Group, the nation’s largest biodiesel producer, that could produce biodiesel from waste biomass (read: not food sources like corn ethanol). Other projects include fuel cells that capture and consume CO2 to produce electricity and new technology for manufacturing plastics with 50% less CO2 emissions.
Here’s Will Dunning telling the Wall Street crybabies they’ll need to look elsewhere for solace.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/fed-s-job-isn-t-to-take-away-the-market-s-pain-ex-ny-fed-chief-1.1186762
(Mixed) metaphorically speaking, Powell spent the past year slowly draining the punch bowl. Then on Wednesday, he threw it on the floor and smashed it to bits. There will be no more drinking from the QE-ZIRP trough.
Financiers who want to make money in the future will have to do their job and find productive capital investments, rather than rely on financial engineering and artificially inflated asset prices. About bloody time.
#127 Another Deckchair on 12.21.18 at 11:31 am
i’ll get that book, funy you mention helium i did at some point posted link to an article stating how we are running out of helium which is shame, i gues because helium is funny, i think that i posted this video of two german dudes drinking helium beer, but am not 100% sure.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3V9QHBgrPNY
#18 Shawn Allen on 12.20.18 at 5:35 pm
LNG $25 billion – It’s not the Kitimat one.
Stan Brooks is wrong. The cancelled Exxon $25 billion LNG plant is a different one than the Royal Dutch Shell
project which is I think a total of $40 billion with pipelines.
I don’t think the Exxon one ever passed its final investment decision.
Relax there was NEVER really going to more than one (if that) of these behemoths built.
Check other sources but I believe Stan Brooks steered us wrong here in his comment late on yesterday’s Post. In his defense the press release said Canada LNG which sounds a lot like the LNG Canada project in Kitimat. It was not.
Are you insane or just plain stupid?
I just quoted one of your MSM souses adding nothing on my own.
Where exactly did I mention Shell?
Do you know what is the difference between Shell and Exxon Mobile?
Here is another link:
https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/oil-and-gas/exxonmobil-shelves-wcc-lng-export-terminal-project-in-canada/67187503
Projected 25 billions in investments are gone.
We will see BTW how will the Shell;s one proceed? I hope well as I own Shell/RDS.B
#5 not 1st. You are so right. Ya I’m onboard with keeping our environment in good order. But we are not a polluting nation! It’s so clear pipelines should be built east and west. I’m stunned Canadians don’t get it. We need to sell what we have for now while we transition. I fear this country is going down the drain. Too much looking south and not focusing on ourselves. As Garth often points out; trading real estate titles doesn’t make an economy. A stiff lesson will happen soon.
Crazyfox on 12.21.18 at 2:19 am
ICE engines are not going away. Ask yourself and be honest. How many people you know…..friends coworkers family etc are driving an electric or hybrid vehicle? Too expensive. And read the following link. Put things in perspective.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/driving.ca/volkswagen/auto-news/news/motor-mouth-vw-phasing-out-internal-combustion-is-delusional/amp
Took a drive though BC and developers along major streets (like Granville) are dumping land assembly lots as “perfect redevelopment opportunities”. Many houses are even listed for sale as redevelopment lots. Years ago they were buying up entire blocks of 2-storey buildings and now they’re in panic mode dumping everything they have. There is even a bunch of empty placeholders where sales were being advertised recently. So there is a combination of land no one will buy any time soon – vacant houses scheduled for demolition and approved for rezoning as well as already leveled plots. Panic is setting in, but don’t read about it on the news.
Stan has a question for me at 134
Are you insane or just plain stupid?
******************************
Well, I could be both but I claim to be neither but that is for others to judge.
Read further to notice I quite quickly corrected that you did not mention Kitimat and said I might owe you an apology. So, I apologise.
But I think it’s fair to say that both the link you gave and your comment might have misled people into thinking it was the Kitimat project that was lost as opposed to an Exxon one that had not yet reached final investment decision. It was likely never expected to happen so not much of a loss.
Anyhow, I am sorry for whatever it is that makes you such a nasty person. You must have had a rough life in some ways.
#67 Turnernation “Stunning evidence of climate change (and it does) from almost 100 years ago:”
An ‘Inconvenient truth’….lol….
Pick any current weather/climate event being blamed on anthropomorphic climate change….and you always find worse events occurring in the first half of the 20th Century….
Melting Polar ice??…….phhhhht……levels were lower in the 1930’s-1950s……but we’ll ignore that data and only include data since the 1970s cause that shows a
convenient downward trend that supports our narrative……
@#137 JuliaS
“So there is a combination of land no one will buy any time soon – vacant houses scheduled for demolition and approved for rezoning as well as already leveled plots. Panic is setting in, but don’t read about it on the news.”
++++
I was noticing the same thing.
I Talked to a few friends who own small reno businesses, Things are slowing AND they get multiple answers to “help wanted” ads. Unlike a year ago……
I figure by March- April Real Estate blood will be in the streets.
https://globalnews.ca/news/4777626/ubers-self-driving-cars-toronto/
Can your imagine getting into this half smashed on New Years Eve. Then after a few minutes seeing a ghost driving you home with the wife beside you screaming “We got to jump out of here”.
Lots of margin calls coming out Christmas eve. Yikes what a bummer. Hopefully no one here will be affected.
#136 steve on 12.21.18 at 2:08 pm
I’ll go with what the leaders of car manufacturers have to say, thanks. When Ford makes F-150’s in 2020 that are offered in hybrid only (it won’t be a plugin however), The #1 best selling vehicle in the world. 13 of 20 brands from Ford will offer electrified vehicles by 2020. By 2021, 2022, driverless cars arrive and don’t think for a moment that consumers won’t want this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0HZqKTSDtZE&t=510s
And Trump’s populism? He’s so unpopular now, he won’t finish next year. There are 17 investigations into Trump now, all beginning with Republicans controlling all 3 houses because DOJ has to do its job and these are investigations that we know of. But enough of the narcissistic blowhard carney barker. Don’t think for a moment the U.S. won’t think long and hard about the leaders and direction they need for the future considering the shit show they are witnessing now. Everything is shaping up for Democrats to take all 3 houses in 2020. Will the U.S. grow up and pass laws banning gas powered vehicles by 2035? Its possible. Its possible because tech is going to do it anyway but can be sped up with government backing, especially in green power generation and as I’ve said, storage or lack thereof is a big issue there.
And what did I say concerning solid state batteries? Gamechanger!!! By 2025, 2027, electric car ranges will double, charge times will be quick and costs will come down. It would be in your best interest to watch this video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=duWFnukFJhQ&t=17s
@Sideshow Rob, post #142:
Lots of margin calls coming out Christmas Eve? Why? Earlier in the year, when stock values were higher you should have sold off enough stock holdings to pay off margin debt and only now, when stocks are on sale should you be running up some margin debt, and only a manageable amount.
#139 Deplorable Dude on 12.21.18 at 2:44 pm
“Pick any current weather/climate event being blamed on anthropomorphic [sic] climate change….” Incorrect word usage—correct is anthropogenic climate change. You deplorables should stay away from five-syllable words. Oh—and don’t talk about things you don’t understand! :)
133 NoName on 12.21.18 at 1:01 pm
#127 Another Deckchair on 12.21.18 at 11:31 am
RE your yesterday post
i’ll get that book, funy you mention helium i did at some point posted link to an article stating how we are running out of helium which is shame, i gues because helium is funny, i think that i posted this video of two german dudes drinking helium beer, but am not 100% sure.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3V9QHBgrPNY
it’s funny