Chasing the market

When stocks lose 10% of their value, the air in this pathetic blog’s steerage section is thick with the wails, moans and piercing screams of the afflicted. They think it’s all going to zero. Meanwhile the doomers, humpers and hairshirts snicker ‘told ya so’, making everyone believe life is a battle between houses (good) and ETFs (evil).

The truth is, there’s more risk today in Canadian residential real estate than any asset tracking the largest companies in North America. Given higher interest rates, restrictive mortgage regs, stunning household debt levels, inflated house prices and stagnant income, trusting this asset class is plain reckless.

Here’s a quick example from (where else?) the tony bit of West Vancouver. It’s a real-life example of loss and despair, as Mr. Market relentlessly reprices properties in that troubled city. Let’s start with an email I received yesterday from a local financial advisor who reads this blog, and seems like a good egg even though he works for a bank.

“So this is part of an email string with a bunch of advisors who are trying to arrange a lunch.  Same group tends to chat about real estate as the one guy sold his Shaughnessy house a couple of years ago.  Anyway, he has a realtor trying to get him back into the market now that it has softened.  You can see the listing history and what eventually happened over the past 18 months.  Remember, only the stock market can go down.  You can’t lose money in real estate…!!!  I find trying to read or believe the statistics that come out of the real estate boards to be the ultimate in Fake News.  It is only through very specific, real-time stories like this that you can get any sense of what is really happening.  Like the stock market…where you know exactly how something is being priced in the moment.”

Well, here’s the story of this house, a new-build – fancy, excessive, opulent, sitting on an ample lot. The kind of luxury digs that in the GTA might be listed optimistically for about $3 or $4 million. But in Van, it hit the MLS at $12.8 million.

After being invited out for a meal, and asked to comment on this property, here is the response of a realtor familiar with it. Look what happened…

“Hi, Sean: here is the Altamont brand new 20k+ sqft lot 8k sqft view home that just sold for 6.3. It was originally listed at 12.88 m by Eric in spring 2017 then 11.68 in the summer/ fall 2017. The it went to Edith at 11 and then 10.4 for winter 2017 to 2018. Then 9.68 to the summer this year then 8.8 to the fall. She lost listing to Amir this Sept who listed for 7.998 and just sold 1.7 below that at 6.3.   So deals to be had in high end of market.  I have a few other examples. But this is fresh as of yesterday.  They bought the lot for 2.4 in 2013.  It’s assessed just under. So overpricing and chasing down market for 1.5 years.”

So, a 50% reduction from list, and a memorable example of what can go wrong when you think an asset’s going up forever. None do. There’s always a ceiling, but with real estate the descent can be long, convoluted and tortuous before a property finally becomes liquid. In that aspect, the contrast with equities is stark – where repricing is immediate, and a sale takes instants. You might not like the result, but it’s better to have you money in hand than a trouser full of fire ants.

This example highlights one segment of the market now in full-blown crisis mode: developers. Builders and speculators get hit far harder than resale owners, since they spend real money bringing a property to market, have inventory to carry and usually leverage themselves up the wazoo to survive. In this case a $2.4 million lot was carried and financed for five years, most of which was consumed in planning and building a sexy home which came to market at exactly the wrong time.

Meanwhile the market as a whole is tenuous. Price reductions of between 12% and 17%  for detached homes are widespread across the Lower Mainland and in the city. Prices just declined 2% in one month. Across Canada, as reported this week, prices and sales have fallen again. Values are less year/year for the first time in half a decade. Edmonton and Calgary are a mess. The spec tax is killing BC. The GTA is stagnant, but in comparatively better shape – brimming as it is with delusional hipsters. Still, after buying and selling costs, nobody has made any money on a house in the last couple of years.

As often blurted here, if you need a house and can afford one without gutting your financial life, go ahead. Just don’t call it an investment. If you can wait, even better. More bargains coming, even if you don’t have six mill to spend.

142 comments ↓

#1 powder_hound86 on 12.19.18 at 3:49 pm

Yea housing markets are rife with risk.

Takes some real cognitive dissonance to think financial markets are not also disgustingly inflated from cheap credit and also rife with risk though.

#2 David on 12.19.18 at 3:59 pm

The house is in west van, not on the west side.

#3 old gringo on 12.19.18 at 4:02 pm

Ouch, now that hurts.
Me, I’m just sitting on the sidelines waiting to buy back in.
Enjoy the ride amigos!

#4 Frank The Tank on 12.19.18 at 4:02 pm

Garth, you seem to expose RE speculators and the pitfalls of such activity (rightfully so). However, are those that have bought RE below their means for the long term not simply consuming but also making a prudent investment (a home as a solid asset)?

#5 The Real Mark on 12.19.18 at 4:04 pm

The answer my friends is deflation of all assets from now into infinity!

#6 Red_falcon on 12.19.18 at 4:07 pm

Buying houses? Wait till they are cheaper!!!
And first!!!

#7 Keen in Van on 12.19.18 at 4:08 pm

“Trouser full of fine arts”
You literally just won 2018, Garth

#8 Keen in Van on 12.19.18 at 4:09 pm

Lol
Now I’m realizing it’s “Trouser full of fire ants”
Haha
I guess I win 2018

#9 Play it Again (Tax) Man on 12.19.18 at 4:16 pm

To all those thinking the government will prop prices up at their current level …

Consider how few can afford current SFD homes and therefore how few sales there are. If prices go lower, there will be more sales and more tax revenue. That windfall (of taxes) they got on the way up can happen just as quickly on the way down. At lower prices, more people will be buying more affordable homes. Construction and trades stay employed and also pay tax (and save EI).

So a reminder to check out a mortgage affordability calculator and see whether you can afford a $2M home. You can’t and neither can others. And even if you could, you wouldn’t commit for 25 years unless you thought homes would continue going up 5 or more % per year. Which they won’t.

Van SFDs are going down 50%. They are well on their way. I love the BS you hear on MSM talking about SFDs perhaps going down a fraction of a percent next year. They clearly aren’t looking at their own data.

#10 Biddy on 12.19.18 at 4:16 pm

1st…! or not.

#11 Biddy on 12.19.18 at 4:18 pm

Or, to summarize pretty much everything this blog has ever bleated on about, assets go up and down in value.

Thank you.

PS: If you’ve ever considered your house to be an asset and not just a place to hang your hat, you deserve what’s coming.

#12 When Will They Raise Rates? on 12.19.18 at 4:19 pm

Nice post today, but I was expecting some commentary on the fed rate hike and subsequent tank on the dow… I guess that will be the subject of tomorrow’s post.

#13 ShawnG in TO on 12.19.18 at 4:24 pm

“6 million $ below asking”
a headline you will not find in any of the corrupt msm

#14 Surfing Pikachu on 12.19.18 at 4:36 pm

Garth, the TDSB used trumped-up charges to accuse the blogger Blazing Cat Fur of a felony that wasn’t proven to be guilty. It was the makings of Kathleen Wynne’s affiliates at the TDSB because Blazing Cat Fur was a staunch critic of several of the TDSB policies, including gender bending indoctrination:

dodocanspell.blogspot.com/2013/03/blazing-cat-fur-dear-tdsb-you-cant.html

It was a sort of SLAPP (Strategic Lawsuit against public participation) by abusing the Criminal Code instead of trivial defamation lawsuits.

#15 Sold Out on 12.19.18 at 4:40 pm

FYI

The property in question is actually in West Van, not Vancouver proper. The market pooped the bed there long ago. The listing realtor is a piece of work. I should send him an Xmas present though, as he encouraged some greater fool to grossly over-pay for my old house.

#16 renter in Surrey on 12.19.18 at 4:43 pm

are we going to see the same 50% reduction for $1mil houses in the Valley

#17 Recent YVR Sales on 12.19.18 at 4:44 pm

Here’s a nice one:
1909 PARKER STREET, Vancouver
Bought 2017 – $2,400,000
Listed 2018 – $2,198,000
Sold 2018 – $2,179,000

$221,000 loss in just 1 year. This doesn’t even factor in land transfer taxes, real estate fees, etc. Clear cut 10% drop in price on SFD in Vancouver in the past year.

P.S. this site is fun: https://www.zealty.ca/map.html combined with this https://www.bcassessment.ca you can sometimes see the real picture.

#18 ole Doberman on 12.19.18 at 4:50 pm

Buffet selling stake in Home Capital – not good news for Cad RE:

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/buffett-s-berkshire-to-substantially-exit-home-capital-investment-1.1185714?fbclid=IwAR1MB4PoQQuUCZs7Nu9QrOD1ADlUb-hcOv9iieKI_GBVElY9_CxZChL0mtg

#19 Where's The Money Greedeau? on 12.19.18 at 4:50 pm

So: OTTAWA — Cooling inflation has given the Bank of Canada another reason to keep interest rates on ice next month.

The annual pace of inflation slowed in November to 1.7 per cent as upward pressure from higher gasoline prices eased off, Statistics Canada said in a report Wednesday.
++++++++++++++++++
Does anyone believe this?
I hurried to the gas station this weekend when I was forewarned of spiking gas prices: price $1.14/L (just missed a 6c/L jump by a couple hours), price now $1.36/L, this is in Mission BC. Closer to Vancouver it’s as high as $1.43/L.
My last trip to the grocery store: lettuce $4!, previous price $1.49. I’ve never seen lettuce this high in my 60 years.
Who believes these P’sOS?
I call bull. It’s because the housing market is collapsing and they have to keep those slaves coming to the banks or the economy implodes, since >25% of Canada’s economy is house driven.
Also have to leave room for their carbon tax theft. I guess they’re getting it in increased take home from the gas price, from us or the trucker of our lettuce.

#20 SmarterSquirrel on 12.19.18 at 4:56 pm

As with any investment, the key is to try to figure out a reasonable valuation for it, whether it’s a house or an equity. Many people buy based on talking heads, either real estate agents or people on CNBC or BNN.

The key is to do your own valuation of the house or stock.

In an up or down market there are good values to be found, fortunately in down markets there are more stocks to be found selling at good valuations, but you have to do the homework of actually assessing them, not just going on a stock tip from some random person or some person with a blog. Do your own homework. This is the method I use for deciding on whether a dividend stock investment and valuation makes sense. https://smartersquirrel.com/invest/dividend%20investing%20lesson%20with%20brookfield%20infrastructure%20partners Just because a stock has fallen doesn’t mean it’s at a good valuation, really make sure you understand what and how you’re assessing.

And as Garth always says, if you don’t have enough of a portfolio to invest in individual stocks, then stick to ETFs to allow for diversification.

#21 Brian Ripley on 12.19.18 at 4:57 pm

Across Canada, as reported this week, prices and sales have fallen again. Garth

MLS residential sales across Canada have dropped to 2005 levels and are approximately 13% below the 2017 sales peak

As shown on my 6 city chart http://www.chpc.biz/6-canadian-metros.html

..when MLS sales were half way through the tech wreck in late 2001, sales were 18% below present levels.

Down trends are a grind.

#22 tristan on 12.19.18 at 5:04 pm

Garth,

Do you feel the same about investing in rental property with good demand and strong cash flow? Would you still stay away at this point in time? And the city is Winnipeg.

#23 dakkie on 12.19.18 at 5:04 pm

Next Housing Crash Worse Than 2008? | Ben Jones

http://www.investmentwatchblog.com/next-housing-crash-worse-than-2008-ben-jones/

#24 Kelly on 12.19.18 at 5:08 pm

A 50% reduction in the sale price of mansions in West Vancouver might just be the forerunner of similar reductions across many categories throughout the overinflated province.

Sales may well slow to a crawl as the waiting games begin between sellers and potential buyers.

2019 looks like a good year to sit on the sidelines and watch all markets unfold.

In the near term, I fear there are no sure, safe investment bets to be made.

#25 Godth on 12.19.18 at 5:10 pm

remembering 1988 when the canadian conservative party was a world leader on climate catastrophe. what happened? old age and decadence. kiss your grandchildren…
Conservative Advisor Turned Green Party Leader, And Her Impassioned Speech On The Climate Crisis
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jpcxoh4kQ38

“you aren’t mature enough to tell it like it is”
You Are Stealing Our Future: Greta Thunberg, 15, Condemns the World’s Inaction on Climate Change
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HzeekxtyFOY

ouch.

#26 Ronaldo on 12.19.18 at 5:10 pm

If the price of home valued at 1 million today at 2.5% rates is not affordable, the same home that loses 50% of its value with interest at 5% is still not affordable. It will be many years before we ever see affordable real estate in the lower mainland.

If you want something that is affordable, the TSX is back to April 2011 levels. RBC will have to gain 17% to get back to its January 2018 level. I suspect it will drop further though. 2019 should prove to be quite interesting. I know which market I will be going after.

#27 Guy in Calgary on 12.19.18 at 5:15 pm

#12 When Will They Raise Rates? on 12.19.18 at 4:19 pm
Nice post today, but I was expecting some commentary on the fed rate hike and subsequent tank on the dow… I guess that will be the subject of tomorrow’s post.
—————————————————————

The hike was priced in but I think most were expecting a more dovish tone from Powell during the press conference. This was not provided so the machines sold off. Welcome to modern markets.

#28 Dolce Vita on 12.19.18 at 5:16 pm

$787.50/sq. ft.

Top shelf home.

YVR Concrete Boxes in the Sky are priced at just below $1,000/sq. ft., on average.

As of December, Vancouver condo inventory rose 72%. Prices peaked this past March.

Your turn Toronto…

#29 Dolce Vita on 12.19.18 at 5:25 pm

I really liked the video Garth.

Normally, humans make dogs to human stuff. For once, the dog made the human to dog stuff.

If that’s a Black Lab, they’re great duck hunting dogs…they like to get wet too.

#30 WeAllGonnaDie on 12.19.18 at 5:28 pm

Montreal/Quebec is on the rise, kids!

#31 TurnerNation on 12.19.18 at 5:30 pm

Yeah but how many are in the market for a 7-12 million dollar home. PITY :-)

#32 yorkville renter on 12.19.18 at 5:33 pm

wife getting antsy… hope 2019 is a stellar year for me, or it’ll be TIGHT 2020 and beyond **sigh**

#33 JuliaS on 12.19.18 at 5:36 pm

Garth, what housing price to average income ratio do you consider healthy in a Canadian economy?

#34 KLNR on 12.19.18 at 5:42 pm

#11 Biddy on 12.19.18 at 4:18 pm
Or, to summarize pretty much everything this blog has ever bleated on about, assets go up and down in value.

Thank you.

PS: If you’ve ever considered your house to be an asset and not just a place to hang your hat, you deserve what’s coming.
_—-_———————————-

Always considered my house/real estate part of my asset group. Done very well thx. Absolutely no worries as to what may or may not be coming.

#35 Smartalox on 12.19.18 at 5:43 pm

I remember back in the run-up in real estate prices in Vancouver, there were some statistically dubious press releases, crowing that the ‘average price of real estate was $1.x million – determined by taking the total dollar volume divided by the number of sales.

No similarly breathless overstatement on the way down? No ‘Vancouver Real Estate plunges 50%!’?

The claim of the million-dollar average preceded the achievement of same by a good 12 to 16 months. Maybe in a similar amount of time, the same will be said for the 50% drop?

Happy New Year flippers specc’ers and developers: better sell by year end, if you want to claim that tax loss!

#36 Godth on 12.19.18 at 5:43 pm

remembering the movie “The Big Short” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vgqG3ITMv1Q

nobody wants to deal with reality, take the hit, learn, and restructure. the usa certainly didn’t want to so they didn’t. paper it over quick and dirty, buy up the garbage, bail out the big boys, drop rates to zero and it’s the new normal. the whole world gets to deal with the fall-out now. junkies always run out of a quick fix, and friends to provide it. can i “borrow” a twenty – no.
neoliberal economics and a world in withdrawal. we can only hope you had fun on the ride up.

#37 yorkville renter on 12.19.18 at 5:45 pm

#18 – Your turn Toronto…

I find Toronto is 6 months behind Van, so I expect a brutal Spring

#38 NothingBurger on 12.19.18 at 5:46 pm

Has this blog become a digital rag for the “Lifestyles of the Rich & Famous”? Who the heck cares what the wealthy foreign buyers are bidding up or down? We want to hear about the homes that are relevant to the 99.9%ers who read this blog.

So how are the 1 bedroom and 2 bedroom condos in Van doing? Or how about a modest 1500 sqft single detached starter home? This is the market that makes or breaks Canadians. This is what we want to know about.

These multi-million dollar properties belong to cash paying foreigners who can afford big losses and still afford to keep the lights on in their primary residence. Next.

#39 joblo on 12.19.18 at 5:47 pm

Lots of Separation articles, talk and now Albexit. Another one today:

https://business.financialpost.com/opinion/jack-mintz-alberta-has-better-reasons-to-albexit-than-britain-did-for-brexit?video_autoplay=true

Go for it Alberta, Kanada is broken and under the current system you’ll never get a fair shake.

#40 Willy H on 12.19.18 at 5:50 pm

When stocks lose 10% of their value, …

___ ___ ___

So much for Trump’s over-the-top corporate tax cuts.

Apparently Boeing is using their Trump windfall corporate tax dividend to buy-back stocks!

Trump unabashedly took full credit for historically low unemployment and stock market highs earlier this year and then he undercut it all introducing global trade risk with baseless tariffs and rising protectionism.

The tsunami of investigations heading Trump’s way are going to expose him, his family and his business’s as the tax evading fraud they really are.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/10/02/us/politics/donald-trump-tax-schemes-fred-trump.html?module=inline

A alleged felon surrounded by mediocre sychophants running the most powerful nation on earth will not end well for markets … this year or next.

What a mess.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-10-26/trump-is-bad-for-the-stock-market

#41 Blacksheep on 12.19.18 at 5:56 pm

Crazyfox & Godth,

Go ahead and lose your shit over something that is 100% unstoppable.

Even if you are correct (your not) and man is playing a significant enough role in warming the planet to have this dangerous an impact (we are not) no amount of whining or taxation is going to change the trajectory of our species and the planet from doing what it has always and will always do, change…

I respectfully suggest you live your life according to you own conscience.

Invest in things you believe, will better your / the Co2 situation. Relocate your family to locations that will suffer the least, from the horror you forecast. Sell your combustion vehicle, never fly in a plane, never take a cruise, never buy any thing not produced or grown with in a 100 miles radius of your home.

If you were truly serious (and honest) about reducing man made global climate changes impact on the planet, you should be advocating for a reduced population, because that is the only way your going to achieve the type Co2 reduction you desire.

Every thing else is hysteria.

#42 AGuyInVancouver on 12.19.18 at 5:56 pm

First off, with that West Vancouver location it has views and setting you will never get in the GTA (or anywhere in ON for that matter). Second, so they sold for $6.3 mill on a lot they purchased for $2.4 – the house cost maybe $2 million to build, so they still came out nicely ahead.

Finally, ask the realtor to tell you where the purchaser (and/or their money) was from. That will indicate whether there will really be a meaningful correction.

#43 Steve French on 12.19.18 at 5:56 pm

I love the smell of losing money in the morning….

smells like… loser-dom.

Steve O

#44 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.19.18 at 6:02 pm

@#107 Flop
” trying to finish a four year build in four days, just so the owner can sit down for one meal on the 25th and then we go back in the new year to fix all the deficiencies because the work got rushed at the end.”
*****

Yep.
The uber rich and their egos.
I swear they do stuff just to flaunt how much money they have.
I friend ( Finish Carpenter) worked on a mansion in West Van for two years building one room…. a library.
The owner came in and looked at it….”nah, rip it out” .
Back to the drawing board.

#45 TFSA-er on 12.19.18 at 6:03 pm

So I called my bank today to switch my TFSA account from “beneficiary” to “successor holder” and the rep told me there is an unusual increase in such requests from clients lately.
Garth, your word is heeded!

#46 neo on 12.19.18 at 6:07 pm

So $6.3 million on the sale.

Land was $2.4 million.
Carrying costs were in the $700,000 range for the 5 years.
8,000 sq/ft home was about $2,700,000 including landscaping.

All in above $6 million. So he broke even after but after taxes and fees so not really a worthwhile venture after 5 years.

#47 common sense on 12.19.18 at 6:08 pm

I have a man crush on Jerome Powell for doing the right thing today and raise rates.

Mind you its tiny compared to the man crush Freedom First has on Garth.

#48 Ex-Cowtown on 12.19.18 at 6:12 pm

#26 Ronaldo on 12.19.18 at 5:10 pm
If the price of home valued at 1 million today at 2.5% rates is not affordable, the same home that loses 50% of its value with interest at 5% is still not affordable.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Affordability is relative. Personally I’d rather have bought at 20% interest rates and a $50k mortgage than at 2% and $500K as you’d be fairly certain that in the future rates will drop and so will your monthly nut. At a 2% mortgage the odds are that you have nothing but pain ahead of you.

Reversion to the mean can work for you or against you. If you have a choice, make it work for you.

#49 allan fong on 12.19.18 at 6:13 pm

DELETED

#50 Ex Pat Canuck on 12.19.18 at 6:32 pm

Anyone who thinks the stock market woes are going to reverse soon are “sunny ways” thinkers. It’s going to be interesting to see where the markets are a year from now, so many bubbles! While I agree with you Garth, they will never go to zero, anyone who hasn’t taken their gains from the past ten years of easy profit risks losing a good chunk in the months and years ahead. In summary, this market is pooched.

Of course not. Financial markets reflect economic growth, which is currently robust, and corporate profits which have been outstanding. Go back to bowling. – Garth

#51 young & foolish on 12.19.18 at 6:33 pm

Whether it’s real estate or equities, your so called “dead money” sitting on the sidelines all of a sudden can buy a lot more.

#52 Freedom First on 12.19.18 at 6:34 pm

Hey blog dogs, so anyways I fell in love, eloped to Vegas and smoking man was my best man. Went to panama on my honeymoon cruise. Got back and 6 months later he left me for a women. I’ve lost 50% of my life savings again. Smoking man was right he kept telling me I was his sugar daddy. Not sure what to do? Any recommendations?
Ps gonna be one shitty and lonely xmas

#53 Godth on 12.19.18 at 6:35 pm

#41 Blacksheep
You’re (not your) using all the same logical fallacies and tactics that deniers of a credit bubble/housing bubble use, congratulations.

targeting individuals may seem manly but these are systemic issues. no wonder we’re doomed when people insist on having pea brains and emotional responses. what brand of shoes do i need to be wearing to be a winner in junior high these days? it’s been a good long while since i’ve considered it.
this isn’t theory anymore, it’s happening. if you want to see hysteria you won’t have to wait long. in fact you could simply notice the migrant caravan from central america, there’s been a drought there and farming is hooped. likewise in the middle east and the arab springs, drought, agriculture, oil prices, and food staple prices kicked it off before it was amplified by geo-political interference from the empire. https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCo-r5Q-5TWB43oLI8eZ6euA/videos
your cognitive dissonance is stunning. ignorance is no excuse these days.

#54 Shawn Allen on 12.19.18 at 6:41 pm

Buffett Sells Hme Capital Shares

#18 ole Doberman on 12.19.18 at 4:50 pm
Buffet selling stake in Home Capital – not good news for Cad RE:

**************************
I’d say the Buffett sale tells you nothing about Canadian Real Estate.

This was a very tiny investment for Buffett / Berkshire. He did it last year because he liked one of the Board members at Home and he was bored or something.

Then the share holders at Home Capital insulted him by voting down his second 20% stake. If he got that he had promised to stick around.

Then this year Home waved a $16.50 substantial buy back offer and he just decided to take that opportunity and get out. He informed Home after his offer was accepted.

Buffett has to save his time for the big investments and so Home Capital was extraordinarily lucky to get his attention and ownership in 2017. Then the share holders insulted him by voting against his second 20% at the price he had offered prior to when he jacked up the price with his first 20% buy. Ungrateful fools.

#55 Cto on 12.19.18 at 6:47 pm

In the last two days I have been under enormous pressure from my wife to side with her on a condo investment. She’s already signed up on the pre-sale 10-day cool down. I have told her my opinion that condo prices just can’t keep rising as no one can afford them here in the GTA. Rents can’t keep up either no one can afford the rents.
But this is ridiculous she has so much fomo. she is extremely scared the condos will keep rising and she won’t be able to attain her dream investment for our son.
She does not listen to logic of any kind.
Please help I have idea what to do!

#56 For those about to flop... on 12.19.18 at 6:51 pm

You guys started a Vancouver real estate carnage session without me?

After all I’ve done…

M44BC

#57 Cto on 12.19.18 at 6:51 pm

If I still make it through this crisis with my marriage intact. there could be nothing better for this country than a severe correction to proces as people are out of their minds!
shame on poloz for keeping interest rates so low for so long , he knew he was going to cause this.!

#58 Monkey's Uncle on 12.19.18 at 6:54 pm

When in doubt, don’t.

#59 Timmy on 12.19.18 at 6:58 pm

So the buyer only paid about 5 million more than what it is worth

#60 Potter on 12.19.18 at 6:59 pm

Actually the home in Altamont is assessed at $7.8m but just last year (2016 after it was built) it was only assessed at $6.2m. The land alone was assessed at around $4.2 million.

So, yes the market has dropped for the average SF home in Vancouver a bit. But this a prime example of the seller being rediculously greedy. If the builder bought the lot for $2.4m, I’m sure he didn’t spend $4m building a 7000 sq ft house. He still made money. Or at least broke even. The days of asking twice what a property is worth are over.

But let’s not claim that because of a few hyper greedy listings falling to their current assessed value, a 50% decline is happening. Basically, it sold for last year’s assessed value.

#61 TurnerNation on 12.19.18 at 7:06 pm

Crazyfox you need to get out there and start writing letters to the airlines and picketing airports. They are causing CLIMATE CHANGE. You need to never again book a vacation. Unless your leftist thinking can somehow justify it.
(Start shorting airline stocks, they’re going to 0. Oops I mean don’t. Leftists are too altruistic for that. In 10 years time we won’t need money. It’ll be back to the earth foraging on what remains of non flooded ground after the oceans rise up and consume this planet in anger. Brush up on your survival skills and Get off the internet! Google is one of the largest users of electricity in the world. Warn us the old fashioned way, home-made signs (using leftover pizza boxes, natch)

It’ll be a new Ice Age. So to speak. Or whatever they called it back then.

I need you to do your part and reduce emissions. No using wood or gas or oil to heat your house; you must rely on Solar and Wind. I trust you’ve begun that process? Sell that car or truck at once

Essentially, back to the stone age. To Save This Planet.
Of course our elites will live it up, like that indoor ski hill in Dubai. They love warmth over there.

The models and theories are clear, on the current path we are helpless and doomed!

#62 -=jwk=- on 12.19.18 at 7:07 pm

C’mon one massively overpriced home sale and the sky is falling? If this was listed at proper price Land+house+10to20%profit (ie 6.5M) it would have sold in 2017. Who would pay double what the same thing could be built for on the lot next door? Prices in GTA/YVR will keep going up to around 1M for entry level. That’s what CMHC insures, that’s the floor.

Actually they’re falling. All evidence supports that conclusion. – Garth

#63 Godth on 12.19.18 at 7:18 pm

a simple analogy for the difference between weather and climate, particularly for those that are prone to record cold snap hysteria denial. look at your house thermostat, that’s climate. put a thermometer on the floor a couple ft. in front of your fridge, take a measurement. now open the fridge door and leave it open, take a reading of the thermometer on the floor – that’s weather. leave the fridge door open and keep taking readings on the floor and in the fridge, that’s jet streams breaking down.
the temp. gradient between the arctic and tropics causes the jet stream. the next time it’s bitter cold look at what the jet stream is doing and notice the temp. in the arctic. the vast majority of the time when it’s unusually cold over a continent in the n. hemisphere it’s much warmer in the arctic than usual. the fridge or freezer door is open, basically.
Why Jet Streams Get Stuck and Weather Goes Nuts: 1 of 2
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=inH7B3HHXOo&t=556s

all this economic twaddle is just that.

#64 enarhem on 12.19.18 at 7:25 pm

#41. Well said Blackie. Totally agree.

#65 The Wet One on 12.19.18 at 7:27 pm

Yep.

Bought my new digs in E-town.

Definitely not an investment.

Right now, I’m looking at investments in the markets.

Good stuff is getting cheaper. If this turmoil and downward pressure keeps up, well, it’ll clearly be time to dive right in get me some of that equity that going on sale.

Let the good times roll!

#66 Godth on 12.19.18 at 7:32 pm

#61 TurnerNation
Open letter to Minister Lawrence MacAulay re: Harvest 2018 http://www.ggc-pgc.ca/open-letter-minister-lawrence-macaulay-re-harvest-2018/
Finnish 2018 Grain Harvest Falls to Lowest Since 1987 on Drought https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-31/finnish-2018-grain-harvest-falls-to-lowest-since-1987-on-drought
North-western European Potato Growers: harvest down 20 percent at least
https://www.potatopro.com/news/2018/north-western-european-potato-growers-harvest-down-20-percent-least
As wheat harvest heads to parched north, Europe braces for more losses
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-wheat-harvest/as-wheat-harvest-heads-to-parched-north-europe-braces-for-more-losses-idUSKBN1KA25V
Germany Faces Worst Harvest in 24 Years After Extreme Drought
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-08/germany-faces-worst-harvest-in-24-years-after-extreme-drought
Harvest contractors face dismal season with drought having a knock-on effect across eastern Australia
https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2018-09-10/harvest-contractors-facing-tough-season/10221972
i could keep going and going but why bother? until it happens to you…then the screaming will begin. Where’s My Toast? aaaahhhh

#67 Another Deckchair on 12.19.18 at 7:36 pm

For all the climate changers here:

(I’m not arguing against, believe me, but…)

Can you please:
– stop driving;
– stop flying;
– stop using asphalt roads;
– stop using concrete;
– steel wheels on steel rail is very energy efficient.
– forget about going on a cruise this winter – cruise ships are incredible uses of petroleum products on a per-passenger basis.

– stop using solar panels – they may have become energy positive over their lifetimes, maybe not – time will tell. And they are all made in China, and guess how they get here;

– plastic. Please stop using this.

– clothes. Go back to wool, and shear it yourself. Something like 99% of clothes are synthetic, and guess where that comes from?

– Internet and mobile phones. The energy usage here is incredible, and, most of it is *not* from renewable resources. Get rid of the cable, and the TV too. Books (the non-electric kind) are ok.

– stop pushing electric cars. Jeez – they don’t solve anything. Don’t even think of going back to using horses, ok? London’s still going through the environmental nightmare that they caused with decades of pee;

– stop going out for coffee. Especially drive-thoughs, when you take 2 timmies to go back to your partner; where’s coffee grown, and how does it get here? Oh, and, don’t eat fruit and veggies out of season, let nature tell you what to eat when.

– Turn the temperature down. Way down. And, you’ll need about 10 people living in your condo, not 2. Do the math – it’s amazingly dour.

– support the governments that push road taxes. Roads are a real environmental killer; not only climate change, but the death to small anamals, insects, and, actually, people.

– live close to work. Figure out how to reduce car usage for commuting to zero.

– somehow get the politicians to stop flying about the place. Trudeau does not need to go to Davos, nor the g20; an internet connection would suffice.

—-

Seriously. I don’t own a car, but can afford to own 10. I cycle, walk, and take public transit. About half of the computers I use for my business are “recycled” from other businesses/persons that deem them to be too “old”. I don’t have a TV. I do have an internet connection, though. Don’t go south for the winter, but may do that anyway, because nobody else seems to see the connection.

I don’t know about you, but this boomer sees that everybody around me has at least 1 car/person in their household. we are at 0.5, the youngsters with kids have at least 1 car/adult, and a motorbike or speedboat thrown in for good measure.

When you have successfully done all of the above, please report back.

And to recap – I’m not criticising your direction and enthusiasm, but somehow the general public doesn’t seem to get it. “Climate Change == NIMBY – others can do the heavy lifting ” is what I see.

This is the wrong blog for your efforts. Good luck. Over and out.

#68 JSS on 12.19.18 at 7:40 pm

I see tremendous value in the TSX at the present moment. Canadian banks, utilities, pipelines, telecom, grocers, insurance – with a good history of dividend growth – just waiting to be bought. it’s not hard to pick up 4% dividends these days, with companies throwing off 3-7% annual dividend growth.
This is the opportune time to buy. Not six months down the line.

#69 foovan on 12.19.18 at 7:41 pm

#62 jwk
You got it backwards. The $1M CMHC insurance max is more like a ceiling. Once the Bank of Mom dries up and kids are left to come up with their own down payments, how will they be able to come up with a $200K+ down payment to get an uninsured mortgage on a $1M+ property? The vast majority will have smaller down payments and will therefore their house shopping be capped at $1M.

#70 Unhinged Trader on 12.19.18 at 7:51 pm

“There’s always a ceiling”

Indeed. Looks like American equities have also reached their ceiling, with valuations artificially bloated by over-optimistic investors, fund managers who simply have no other option but to buy and the latest re-write of the US tax-code which created earnings from thin air.

#71 Herb on 12.19.18 at 7:54 pm

Risk –

The current risk in residential real estate is simple: you are buying into a Ponzi scheme late in the game. It also is simple to manage: stay out, or if you must buy, buy only for reasons that have nothing to do with making money.

The risk in other markets is complex. It has nothing to do with reason, value, or expected returns, so cannot be managed. You pay your money, ride with the tide, hope for the best – and that you will arrive at your exit as a winner. Everything else is marketing to get you into or keep you in the game.

#72 TheDood on 12.19.18 at 8:09 pm

#62 -=jwk=- on 12.19.18 at 7:07 pm

…..Prices in GTA/YVR will keep going up to around 1M for entry level. That’s what CMHC insures, that’s the floor……
___________________________________

Because canadians can afford those prices right?

#73 Ron on 12.19.18 at 8:14 pm

#67 Another Deckchair on 12.19.18 at 7:36 pm
For all the climate changers here:

(I’m not arguing against, believe me, but…)

Can you please:
– stop driving;
– stop flying;
– stop using asphalt roads;
– stop using concrete;
– steel wheels on steel rail is very energy efficient.
– forget about going on a cruise this winter – cruise ships are incredible uses of petroleum products on a per-passenger basis.

– stop using solar panels – they may have become energy positive over their lifetimes, maybe not – time will tell. And they are all made in China, and guess how they get here;

– plastic. Please stop using this.

– clothes. Go back to wool, and shear it yourself. Something like 99% of clothes are synthetic, and guess where that comes from?

– Internet and mobile phones. The energy usage here is incredible, and, most of it is *not* from renewable resources. Get rid of the cable, and the TV too. Books (the non-electric kind) are ok.

– stop pushing electric cars. Jeez – they don’t solve anything. Don’t even think of going back to using horses, ok? London’s still going through the environmental nightmare that they caused with decades of pee;

– stop going out for coffee. Especially drive-thoughs, when you take 2 timmies to go back to your partner; where’s coffee grown, and how does it get here? Oh, and, don’t eat fruit and veggies out of season, let nature tell you what to eat when.

– Turn the temperature down. Way down. And, you’ll need about 10 people living in your condo, not 2. Do the math – it’s amazingly dour.

– support the governments that push road taxes. Roads are a real environmental killer; not only climate change, but the death to small anamals, insects, and, actually, people.

– live close to work. Figure out how to reduce car usage for commuting to zero.

– somehow get the politicians to stop flying about the place. Trudeau does not need to go to Davos, nor the g20; an internet connection would suffice.

————————

Don’t have kids. It’s the single worst thing you can do for the environment.

#74 Blacksheep on 12.19.18 at 8:15 pm

I’m “targeting” no one.

You two continue to blather on about a topic, few are undecided on. If you think your changing minds with your fear driven youtube links, you’re even more naive than I thought.

Noticed you skipped right past, the man made climate change elephant in the room.

So…are you pro population reduction, or is this all just posturing for attention? Surely, somebody of your conviction recognizes the unpleasant obviousness of the only viable solution to your (not mine) horrific future?

PS: Sorry to hear painful high school experiences, still haunt you.

#75 Shawn Allen on 12.19.18 at 8:17 pm

Don’t Be a Johnny-Come-Lately Bear

#50 Ex Pat Canuck on 12.19.18 at 6:32 pm said:
Anyone who thinks the stock market woes are going to reverse soon are “sunny ways” thinkers.

Okay, but has this been your long-standing opinion? A lot of people will say stocks (or houses) are no good only now that they are down or going down.

Then there is our resident long-time Perma Bear Tony. I believe he has been calling for a stock market crash for at least three years. So I respect that he has a consistent opinion.

Those who sour on an asset class only after it goes down do not get my respect. And I don’t recall what ExPat’s position has been.

#76 Ron on 12.19.18 at 8:22 pm

#55 Cto on 12.19.18 at 6:47 pm
In the last two days I have been under enormous pressure from my wife to side with her on a condo investment. She’s already signed up on the pre-sale 10-day cool down. I have told her my opinion that condo prices just can’t keep rising as no one can afford them here in the GTA. Rents can’t keep up either no one can afford the rents.
But this is ridiculous she has so much fomo. she is extremely scared the condos will keep rising and she won’t be able to attain her dream investment for our son.
She does not listen to logic of any kind.
Please help I have idea what to do!

—————————————————

The best advice is what Don Vito Corleone told Johnny Fontane:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7nqcgUDoV_M

#77 Fish on 12.19.18 at 8:24 pm

“The GTA is Stagnant”

Except for their sidewalk pizza machine ready in 3 minutes

#78 Godth on 12.19.18 at 8:26 pm

#67 Another Deckchair
i’m not arguing we’re going anything to solve this predicament, i know we’re not. i’m suggesting we see the reality we’re facing and stop the denial. we need to get real and brace for impact. it’s too late for any pie in the sky, but maybe we could get one thing right.
https://theconversation.com/we-may-survive-the-anthropocene-but-need-to-avoid-a-radioactive-plutocene-84763

#79 Diolch yn fawr on 12.19.18 at 8:29 pm

Remember the emperor has no clothes Everything is related and correlated ‘Tis a gift to be simple ‘‘tis a gift to be free Ask not for whom the bell tolls

#80 JG on 12.19.18 at 8:31 pm

Lots of people have lost money securing sites for Cannabis stores, only to have the Ontario Gov’t change there mind and go to a lottery system. Lots of stories of people who gave up their jobs, dropped lots of cash to secure prime locations, etc etc.
A few I know personally.

They are crying right now.

#81 stage1dave on 12.19.18 at 8:54 pm

#61 TurnerNation
#67 Another Deckchair

Agree 100%…we’re all part of the problem (along with our individual habits) because most of us don’t realize it. It’s a good thing to have this pointed out.

Btw, I do own 10 cars but only drive one at a time…most don’t see a 100km a year unfortunately.

#82 yvr_lurker on 12.19.18 at 8:55 pm

I don’t give a hoot about the house in West Van and the reduction, as this is an outlier that 99.9% of the people can’t and will never be able to afford.
I am much more interested in average houses, townhouses, duplexes within a reasonable distance of the core of the city, van west, van east etc..(not Chilliwack or Abbotsford) A few years ago these were irather naffordable even to the highest paid young professional couples without a trustfund or huge deposits. Prices are clearly coming down at all levels and within a few years I am hoping that the locals will have a decent chance to have a more comparable future a to what I had in the 1990s. I truly hope that the rich foreign buyers stay away from YVR because of the foreign buyer tax, or politicel issues, and put their parasitic housing “investment” elsewhere. We should welcome start-ups and industries that want to create jobs here, not people looking to park cash on a monopoly board.

#83 Ace Goodheart on 12.19.18 at 8:55 pm

That is one sexy house. I would so air b n.b that sh$t.

And check out that view.

Serious panty dropping shag pad.

Putting green on the lawn?

Wow. If that pops up as a rental I am taking a vacay to YVR

#84 JPN on 12.19.18 at 9:01 pm

I love my home, couldn’t really care less that it’s dropping in value. Sure it’s nice to be ahead but I wouldn’t rent for love or money.. sorry, it appears I’m a minority … and totally cool with it !

#85 Godth on 12.19.18 at 9:08 pm

#67 Another Deckchair
“This is the wrong blog for your efforts. Good luck. Over and out.”
that really says it all. hahaha Merry Christmas! https://biblehub.com/matthew/19-21.htm

#74 Blacksheep
yeah, you can’t keep up obviously. good luck in your own little world.

#86 Figure it Out on 12.19.18 at 9:40 pm

“Financial markets reflect economic growth, which is currently robust …”

Financial markets predict economic growth. I’ve been a bull for a decade, and it’s paid me well. But I think it may be time. US new home and auto sales are declining, Amazon lowered guidance on their next quarter, FedEx just coughed up a furball — I could go on. Unemployment, as measured, is at about fifty year lows and the US Federal deficit is running at about $1 trillion per year. This looks to be as good as it gets. The Fed will tighten until something breaks, and it may have already. I’ve moved to defensive dividend payers.

I could be wrong, but the dividends will keep me warm while I wait.

#87 Godth crazy sq turner nation etc on 12.19.18 at 9:42 pm

With geniuses like you here,we don’t stand a chance in this country.

#88 Paul on 12.19.18 at 10:29 pm

#84 JPN on 12.19.18 at 9:01 pm
I love my home, couldn’t really care less that it’s dropping in value. Sure it’s nice to be ahead but I wouldn’t rent for love or money.. sorry, it appears I’m a minority … and totally cool with it !
-#———————————————————————————————-
In a minority? Hardly homeownership in Canada is approximately 70% ,

#89 april on 12.19.18 at 10:32 pm

#82 “Here, here”.

#90 jess on 12.19.18 at 10:40 pm

The OSC investigation focused in part on secretive payments worth tens of millions from Katanga to Gertler. Global Witness exclusively revealed those payments in a two-part exposé in November 2016 and March 2017. Our research showed that Katanga Mining had been redirecting contractual payments, originally meant for DRC’s state mining company Gécamines, to Gertler. We also revealed that since 2014, Katanga Mining’s stock exchange filings had omitted the identity of the recipient of royalties and signature bonus payments when the beneficiary was in fact Gertler. Within months of our publication, the Wall Street Journal reported that OSC had opened its own investigation.

“The details provided by Canadian authorities vindicate our concerns that Glencore’s Katanga Mining had failed to comply with rules by not disclosing that it was paying millions to Gertler, a known corruption risk. The picture painted by the Ontario Securities Commission indicates that Glencore used Gertler and his associates to manage relationships with the DRC government,” said Peter Jones, Campaign Leader at Global Witness. “This will be very awkward reading for Glencore management and should lead to further investigations,” he added….
“These figures put the $22m payment in perspective and make it look less like real accountability and more like a slap on the wrist,” said Jones. “If there is to be real change in the way that Glencore and its subsidiaries operate, top management must be held accountable for the way these companies handle risk. It’s a first step forward when individual executives and directors have been named and receive some financial punishment, but there is further to go to achieve real accountability”, added Jones.

“Glencore is already facing an investigation by the United States into its business in DRC, so there may be more to come for the company and its executives. It is also one of the biggest companies on the London Stock Exchange – it’s urgent that the UK’s Serious Fraud Office also open an official inquiry into the company’s activities in DRC, otherwise London will lose credibility as a centre for business,” Jones continued.

…”Since 2011 Global Witness has raised concerns about the corruption risks of doing business with Dan Gertler. …

https://www.globalwitness.org/en/press-releases/global-witness-welcomes-canadian-regulator-ruling-glencore-controlled-company-and-executives/

#91 For those about to flop... on 12.19.18 at 10:48 pm

Brand new.

Well, I just came across this listing and I didn’t know what category to put it in and so since I get to make up the rules,I just made up a new one.

Let’s do a end of year recap.

So we know you can get a starter house on the Westside of Vancouver for around 1.5

We know you can get a starter home in East Vancouver for around 900k.

We’ve also confirmed you can get a starter home in Richmond, Burnaby and North Van for around a million.

O.k so what the bloody heck are we doing looking out in the boonies of Maple Ridge for?

I don’t know you tell me.

I get letters about the more affordable side of things and this brand new house in Maple Ridge has just gone below 1.2

Should we be ashamed or rejoicing that a new house can be had in Maple Ridge for 1.2.

Once again, you tell me,people are thirsty for information and more pieces of the puzzle and this could very well be an option for someone that doesn’t mind a commute or wants to work from home.

The details…

20145 124 ave,Maple Ridge.

Originally asking 1.27

Now asking 1.19

So they have been at it since June ,this is their fourth reduction, slowly inching down trying to find where the market is at.

Some people seem confused, I’m not a real estate agent,I’m a b-grade construction worker that works on Westside detached properties primarily.

I don’t mind helping people out but you need to do your own research…

M44BC

https://www.zolo.ca/maple-ridge-real-estate/20145-124-avenue

P.S ,had my first visit from someone from Bahrain so welcome to the blog.

#92 Where's The Money Greedeau? on 12.19.18 at 11:00 pm

Re; #44 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.19.18 at 6:02 pm
@#107 Flop
” trying to finish a four year build in four days, just so the owner can sit down for one meal on the 25th and then we go back in the new year to fix all the deficiencies because the work got rushed at the end.”
*****
Yep.
The uber rich and their egos.
I swear they do stuff just to flaunt how much money they have.
I friend ( Finish Carpenter) worked on a mansion in West Van for two years building one room…. a library.
The owner came in and looked at it….”nah, rip it out” .
Back to the drawing board.
+++++++++++++
Have a look at the TV series Ozark. That’s the playbook for money laundering….
Like the previous poster (#42 AGuyInVancouver on 12.19.18 at 5:56 pm) said to ask WHERE this money came from….
So much to learn how much dirty money is in play in Van-TO-Canada.
Maybe $6 million haircut to get $6 million washed is play money to these guys when illicit marijuana alone is over $3 billion/year in Vancouver. Fentanyl is 100x more profitable as shown in this:https://globalnews.ca/news/4658157/fentanyl-vancouver-real-estate-billion-money-laundering-police-study/
This is an eye opening account of the drug crime scene in Vancouver. Everyone should read it.
They say “drug traffickers can turn one kilogram of heroin worth $70,000 — blended with $12,500 worth of fentanyl powder — into 100 kilograms of counterfeit heroin, worth about $7 million on the street. Yeah 100x, who wouldn’t take that gig in Canada, especially when the jail time is minuscule for trafficking.
And yet, about 10 years before fentanyl started to flood Vancouver, Canadian courts had already found that Big Circle Boys were the dominant Chinese crime syndicate in Canada causing opioid overdose deaths.
One convicted Toronto-based Big Circle Boys kingpin acknowledged that he was likely responsible for causing heroin drug overdose deaths in Vancouver and southern Ontario, a 2003 federal court ruling says. The man also admitted he sent massive drug cash proceeds back to China, to buy businesses, including a coal mine.”
That money has to go somewhere. Maybe that’s why they have ghost cities with no one there.
Canada is built upon drug dealers full stop.

#93 LP on 12.19.18 at 11:01 pm

#85 Godth on 12.19.18 at 9:08 pm
#67
https://biblehub.com/matthew/19-21.htm

#74 Blacksheep
***********************************
Any of you people ever hear of context? Jesus said what he did because he knew the young man loved his wealth. In every other way he was a true believer and a practitioner of his religion of the time. His fatal flaw was his love of money. If only he had seen that, and given generously to others, perhaps he might have been “saved” (to use a phrase I heartily dislike, even though I’m a Christian).

And those who would mock, please just give it a rest.

#94 Bottoms_Up on 12.19.18 at 11:07 pm

73 Ron on 12.19.18 at 8:14 pm
———————
You’re missing a couple of key facts.

Some of the largest contributors to global warming are:

-burning of fossil fuels (gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, coal)
-agriculture (bovine excrement, belches)

Humans CAN make a significant change by removing fossil fuels from transportation (already being done with hybrid and electric vehicles; subsidies for public transportation, on hybrid/electric buses; policies to allow more teleworking).

Yes people need to fly less.

Plus you need to look at the energy footprint. Ontario is actually fairly clean energy (wind solar hydro nuclear). Therefore use of the internet, phones and heating/cooling in Ontario is cleaner than in other jurisdictions.

It can, must, and is being done.

#95 Blacksheep on 12.19.18 at 11:08 pm

Godth,

Have you ever designed and set up a large fish tank?
You know what kills the fish? TOO many fish, for the filtration/volume of the tank.

Hmm..you seem to be lacking conviction, in your cause.

Here, I’ll man up for you…

I advocate a 50% population reduction via natural means, buy all nations. Two parents, one child until the population is halved. Then adjust to a comfortable, two parents, two child policy.

Am I suggesting this to reduce Co2 output?

Shit no, but planetary resources are finite and we just happen to have, 4 billion more ‘fish’ than our ‘fish tank’ can comfortably support.

Let your UN heroes chew on that.

#96 Bottoms_Up on 12.19.18 at 11:22 pm

#41 Blacksheep on 12.19.18 at 5:56 pm
—————–
-tax carbon appropriately (gives consumers a choice)
-apply appropriate incentives to support business investment and consumer uptake of clean energy

Sorry Blacksheep, you are entitled to your own opinions, but not your own facts.

Humans having been causing global warming for centuries by burning fossil fuels. That is an indisputable scientifically proven fact.

#97 TRUMP on 12.19.18 at 11:43 pm

GARTH

DID I READ THAT RIGHT????

You have college students working for you vetting your blog comments and they don’t get paid??

WONDER what LEWENZA would have to say about those labour practices?

Maybe you should ask for donations from your frequent RICH RE bloggers so some students can get some xtra WEED money to support Trudeau’s gutless, spineless, panzy-A** government.

HO HO HO….MERRY CHRISTMAS!!!!

#98 Tccontrarian on 12.19.18 at 11:52 pm

Great video! I hope the guy doesn’t leave any loaded firearms lying around. The dog’s got great aim.
TCC

#99 For those about to flop... on 12.19.18 at 11:59 pm

Recent sale report.

Dunno what these guys are up to for the holidays but my guess is not much.

The details…

3946 w 30th ave,Vancouver.

Paid 4.11 February 2016

Originally asking 3.99

Just sold for 3.55

Assessment 4.46

So like I wrote the other day, a lot of sales in this price bracket are going for 20% less than assessed and these guys seemingly knew that as they didn’t even try to get all their money back from the start.

In the cold light of day they lost close to 20% or it’s a 800k pitchfork to the pants…

M44BC

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/3946-west-30th-avenue

#100 Vajra Andrea Sargeant on 12.20.18 at 12:13 am

The lunch conversation in your blog today was priceless and made me think of the couple across the street who sold their house in three days last week at a lower cost than last year. The longtime belief that a house is an rewarding investment is a false assumption. You have to do the calculations and have self-restraint. Thanks for writing your blog every day. I look forward to it.

#101 Bk on 12.20.18 at 12:20 am

#26 Ronald
Your math is way off. Half the price at twice the interest rate is not the same.

Also I believe nasdaq has shed almost 18% from its high…..
Many common popular equities have dropped more than 10%

#102 Bdwy sktn on 12.20.18 at 12:41 am

By my ciferin’ the bear meets the sp500 at 2350.

Thats 156 more to go.

425 already gone.

3/4 of the way there.

Overreaction to a more tepid profit growth future?

Should i heloc to the max if it hits 30%? 40%?

#103 Happy Days on 12.20.18 at 1:30 am

#52 Freedom First on 12.19.18 at 6:34 pm
Hey blog dogs, so anyways I fell in love, eloped to Vegas and smoking man was my best man. Went to panama on my honeymoon cruise. Got back and 6 months later he left me for a women. I’ve lost 50% of my life savings again. Smoking man was right he kept telling me I was his sugar daddy. Not sure what to do? Any recommendations?
Ps gonna be one shitty and lonely xmas

————————————————

Why don’t you and Smoking Man get together??

I think you would make a cute couple. You can combine your remaining 50% with the 50% that remains after his Forex trading days and make each other hole! 100%!

If the love happens, please send Garth a photo of you and Smoking Man enjoying the holidays together. Hopefully he will post it on one of his blogs!

#104 Smoking Man on 12.20.18 at 1:36 am

You virtue signalling champions of man-made climate change. Some Facts for you idiots with zero deductive reasoning skills.

Fact: Canada produces 1.5 % of worldwide CO2
China about 30%

Fact: Co2 is tree food. Canadian Trees and corn and grass eat 3 times the Co2 Canadians produce.

The UN should be cutting Canada check for all the hard work Canadian trees do eating CO2 and exhaling oxygen for the world to share. It’s time we collected royalties.

But it’s not about putting a price on pollution. Is about funding unelected one worlder commie thrives who hate risk takes and individualists.

They got too the kids in school . That’s why I despise dumb ass teachers who never knocked a door to put food on the table.

They took the safe space road and hate with vengeful jealousy of those of us who have balls and not afraid to roll the dice in a house that always wins at the crap table .

Amazon has big sale on yellow vests, got two on order.

Who’s in?

Posting a link on Xmass day.. My book will be free for one day only.
Sucking you in for the sequel….that won’t be free.

#105 Newcomer on 12.20.18 at 2:15 am

#63 Godth on 12.19.18 at 7:18 pm
——

It’s great to see that you are interested in weather and climate but none of what you said is accurate. Just go grab a stack of meteorology books from the local library. It’s a good place to start. This stuff is fun. Enjoy it.

#106 Stan Brooks on 12.20.18 at 4:48 am

Some more statistical lies:

Canada’s annual inflation rate drops sharply on lower gas prices

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/canadas-annual-inflation-rate-drops-134436946.html

When gas goes up there is no inflation.
When it goes down, temporarily, very small decline, suddenly there is deflation.

Looking at the action in the loonie, down again, painful to watch.

Look at the comments bellow the article on yahoo.

While paid for mass media is spinning that piece of propaganda as news.

It is very clear that we are nearing the top of the rate hike cycle, if not at the top already. The next move I see in the loonie is down so I will use the opportunity to withdraw whatever remains in cash I have in registered and non registered plans in the most tax efficient way possible.

After that?

Good luck Canada.

Before I was really pissed off by the T2/French villa guy, now I absolutely love their idiocies and keep my fingers crossed for them to get reelected.

What a show, the smelly stuff is literally hitting the fan as we speak.

#107 Frank The Tank on 12.20.18 at 7:18 am

I am always highly suspicious of people who claim to be savvy with their money and have a large amount of wealth accrued, but panic when the market dips or corrects.

I call BS.

#108 Y. Knott on 12.20.18 at 7:22 am

#78 Godth on 12.19.18 at 8:26 pm
#67 Another Deckchair
i’m not arguing we’re going anything to solve this predicament, i know we’re not.

– Then WHY ARE YOU ENDLESSLY BOMBARDING US with your tripe??? Oh, and to misquote you (#63 Godth on 12.19.18 at 7:18 pm):

“all this global warming nonsense is just that.”

#109 Tater on 12.20.18 at 8:09 am

#37 yorkville renter on 12.19.18 at 5:45 pm
#18 – Your turn Toronto…

I find Toronto is 6 months behind Van, so I expect a brutal Spring
—————————————————————–
I expect the spring will be slow, but the fireworks start in the summer and carry into the fall.

Lots of peak house buyers in the spring of 17 in the GTA took out 2 year mortgages to keep payments low. Those will need to be rolled in the late spring/early summer. Since then, prices have plopped, mortgage lending has tightened, and rates have gone up.

Additionally, many used private lender for down payments funded by the lender’s HELOC. As rates rise, and credit tightens, they’ll withdraw and expect to get their cash back.

Forced sellers are when the houses-only-go-up narrative changes.

#110 Patrick McMullen on 12.20.18 at 8:21 am

The truth is that our monetary mass had increased massively in the last 10 years(credit expansion), are we in credit contraction territory? I don’t think so, but I think we have reached a plateau, I also think low rates are a new paradigm for the next decades.

The most simplistic and easiest metric to measure a healthy housing market is the rent to own ratio and the cost of new construction.

My stocks have been hammered in the last year, but did anyone ever had the stress to have a house under-water that you still have to throw money at and pay for a rent at the same time? Doesn’t worth it, unless your job is 100% safe and you can stay in that house for ages. Same applies for stock if you can weather the storm, just stop looking at it daily, it’s not healthy, unless you’re a day-trader.

#111 Renter's Revenge! on 12.20.18 at 8:23 am

#22 tristan on 12.19.18 at 5:04 pm
Garth,
Do you feel the same about investing in rental property with good demand and strong cash flow? Would you still stay away at this point in time? And the city is Winnipeg.

====================================

You’re asking for Garth’s opinion on Winnipeg?

I still remember when he referred to the city as an “anachronistic relic of the railway era” lol

#112 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.20.18 at 8:34 am

@#56 Cto.

You’re supposed to “buy a condo for your son”…?
++++
Why is it up to the parents to supply a condo to a child for FS?

*****************************
@#76 Ron
“The best advice is what Don Vito Corleone told Johnny Fontane:

+++++

Good one

#113 Figure it Out on 12.20.18 at 8:40 am

“I am always highly suspicious of people who claim to be savvy with their money and have a large amount of wealth accrued, but panic when the market dips or corrects. I call BS.”

There’s a first time for everything, and it’s always new people. If your net worth has been increasing on a slow exponential basis as savings are periodically invested and those investments compound, you will eventually have a big enough pile that you’ll have your first loss of five, six, seven or eight figures in a single day, week, month or year. Given the way markets work, this will probably be at or near the end of a long, gradual slope up. Every successful investor stands to lose a lot more in the next bear market than in the last one, in dollars if not in percentages.

#114 T.O Accountant on 12.20.18 at 8:42 am

Asking price of a property is completely irrelevant – all that matters is the final sold price.

In this case, property was sold for $6.3 million.

Purchased for $2.4 million – assume building of home cost $1.5 million – all in cost to the developers is $3.9 million.

As we know, this $3.9 million could have been invested in the market for 5 years – let’s assume annual return of 5%. That’s $1,077,498 in potential investment income.

However, the developers actual result was:

Gain on sale = $6.3 – 3.9 = $2.4 million less 5% shyster commission = $2.085 net

Less the amount that could have been earned on the $3.9 million invested = $2.085 – $1.077 = $1.008 million.

That means the developers are still $1.008 million ahead compared to them having just parked the $3.9 mil in the markets.

Their actual return is likely around 53% – calculated as $2.085 net over $3.9 investment. Well done to them.

I’m glad you’re an accountant instead of a builder. That house would cost $400 a foot (landscaping in) for a total of $3.2 million, plus the $2.4 million lot, plus five years of carrying costs and development fees, less 5% realty commission. Nobody made any money. – Garth

#115 n1tro on 12.20.18 at 8:52 am

#53 Godth on 12.19.18 at 6:35 pm
#41 Blacksheep
You’re (not your) using all the same logical fallacies and tactics that deniers of a credit bubble/housing bubble use, congratulations.
—————————
Stating an “obvious” problem without a bringing a solution makes you part of the problem. Other posters citing various sources that state the most impactful thing to reduce the CO2 “problem” is to never have been born.

Will you do your part so we can stop hearing the bromance between you and Crazyfox drone on all day about climate change?

#116 dharma bum on 12.20.18 at 9:17 am

Are all y’all REALLY concerned about climate change and environmental issues that affect human health?

Well, you can stop A LOT of the problems by simply avoiding fast food.

Can you make that small sacrifice?

Yah, y’know…stop eating the crap you’re all mindlessly addicted to?

Burgers, burgers, burgers, and more burgers.
McDonalds, Burger King, Wendy’s, Jack-In-The-Box, Hardee’s, Sonic, Carl’s Jr., A&W, Harvey’s, White Castle, etc.

The poisonous, feces laden, sewage saturated, e-coli crawling ground beef contained in the garbage sold for human consumption all comes from cattle feed lots, which are a major source of environmental destruction.

This is a taboo subject because of the size of the fast-food industry and the meat business in the U.S. and Canada.
These dispensers of artificial poison food are untouchables.

I’m no vegetarian – I’ll chow down on high quality steaks anytime – but I can pick and choose the source of the meat.

Feedlot produced cattle and high-volume meatpacking facilities are the scourge of the environment and the health of the ignorant masses.

First things first.
You want to do your part to clean up the earth?
Quit eating fast food burgers.

https://www.ewg.org/meateatersguide/interactive-graphic/confined-feedlots/

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/americans-are-obsessed-with-fast-food-the-dark-side-of-the-all-american-meal/

#117 TurnerNation on 12.20.18 at 9:58 am

Food will become scarce? Crops Failing? Surely with this reduced supply you’d expect prices to SKYROCKET .

Reality is…Mr. Market knows all.
REMEMBER all food shortages and starvation thoughout history have been man-made, largely via communism. That’s who is battling for mind. Lazy thinkers, your fellow man attacking and enslaving you. A knock on your door at night, seizing your goods. Nothing new under the sun.
Stick to facts.

Prices for Commodities are at lows/record lows

Corn:
https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ZC&p=m1
Wheat:
https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ZW&p=m1
Coffee:
https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=KC&p=m1
Orange juice:
https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=JO&p=w1
Sugar:
https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=SB&p=m1

There is no evidence of a shortage. Most North americans carry around an extra 10-100lbs of weight. Save money and Eat less. And it will help the planet.

#118 Godth on 12.20.18 at 10:29 am

#115 n1tro
i could list a whole litany of things we could do from not wasting 40% of food, local seasonal food, driving small cars (not monster trucks/suvs), driving a lot less, smaller more efficient houses, etc. but we’ve heard that for decades and where’s that got us? Mcmansions and monster trucks. jevon’s paradox and science denying pigs at the trough. in the end there are too many people consuming too much planet and it all burns fossil fuel every step of the way, even “green” technology. http://vaclavsmil.com/category/books/
LIMITS – words nobody wants to hear
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rNV0xXy5oSg

it’s too late for that regardless, we’ve already locked in more than 2 c warming, insects are going the way of the dodo and crops are cooking/flooding which will only increase. my suggestion is that we shut down the nuclear reactors and try to safely dispose of the spent fuel rods while we still can, before we’re bathing in ionizing radiation as civilization is collapsing around us.

“Second, in both Europe and the United States, prolonged heat waves have shut down or derated multiple nuclear plants simultaneously when sources of cooling water got too hot.”
https://rmi.org/fuel-hand-make-coal-nuclear-power-plants-valuable/

#119 Create a Third World Country on 12.20.18 at 10:36 am

Merry Christmas all. Justin Trudeau is now -23% in the polls, which is a very Merry Xmas to Canadians from coast to coast. Will there be a country to salvage after the bitter rule of Gerald Butts?

#120 Blacksheep on 12.20.18 at 10:54 am

LP #93,

“context? Jesus said”
———————–
Bearded dude in the sky reference?

#121 IHCTD9 on 12.20.18 at 10:55 am

Even though no one made any real money on that house except the government and a realtor – it still ain’t worth 6.3 – not even close. Whoever bought it will likely burn again when sell time comes. Hopefully it was bought to live in.

Out my way houses like this one are rare, but I can get a 5000sf waterfront mansion for 1.9 mil out here. It’s just as nice, (although not so over the top) as the 6.3 one above, just in a different style and smaller (but waterfront – done right too with a sweet stone break wall and pier)

I’d say 3 million max sounds about right for this YVR place, although it obviously could not exist in Vancouver for that price.

#122 Evangeline on 12.20.18 at 11:09 am

#116 Dharma

Reading your post nauseated me. At this point I’d have to be force fed to eat a Mcdonalds burger … McCafe is great coffee though.

And the USA is going to be exporting beef to China, poor cows.

I recently bought a package of fancy carrot “chips” cut in ripple design they looked so nice in the package. But they taste like flavourless chips of wood, straight to the bin they went. The food supply has been badly degraded. No I do not want to buy garlic bulbs the size of a softball.

Chick Fil A is coming to Toronto soon … they are popular in the USA but don’t know how they source their chicken.

#123 IHCTD9 on 12.20.18 at 11:39 am

Looking at the MLS in my area is getting boring. Same old places up for sale month after month 40-50-60-70-80 DOM and more. Price reductions have been ineffective. Anything decent is solidly overpriced IMHO. All the sellers hate what the local market is offering, but HAM just don’t make it out this far lol! Everyone has a line in the water waiting for a nibble from the elusive MMTB fish (more money than brains).

If I were a young dude just starting out – I would have spent 5 minutes looking at nice houses that cost 6-900K and said to hell with this and changed plans immediately. Even paying 250-300K for something decent that has good bones but still sports most of its original interior and exterior finishes – is barely worth it. The low/mid end homes offer little value for the money out here.

I’d be very turned off by local RE very quickly – not much bang for the buck out there unless you can afford something on the high end.

#124 IHCTD9 on 12.20.18 at 11:45 am

#81 stage1dave on 12.19.18 at 8:54 pm

Btw, I do own 10 cars but only drive one at a time…most don’t see a 100km a year unfortunately.
______

Those old Buick 455’s must really suck the gas :).

#125 Godth on 12.20.18 at 11:54 am

#117 TurnerNation
looking at the wheat chart you provided along with the other commodities listed at the top you’re actually proving my point, thanks. https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ZW&p=m1

you may want to look at what’s happening with the ogallala aquifer, lake mead and soil salinization levels in california to get a sense where this is going. don’t be lazy. https://www.californiasun.co/stories/californias-soil-is-getting-too-salty-for-crops-to-grow/

you could always take up ranching in australia, likely some good deals to be had. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gByMrCKkZco

#126 IHCTD9 on 12.20.18 at 12:00 pm

#55 Cto on 12.19.18 at 6:47 pm
In the last two days I have been under enormous pressure from my wife to side with her on a condo investment. She’s already signed up on the pre-sale 10-day cool down. I have told her my opinion that condo prices just can’t keep rising as no one can afford them here in the GTA. Rents can’t keep up either no one can afford the rents.
But this is ridiculous she has so much fomo. she is extremely scared the condos will keep rising and she won’t be able to attain her dream investment for our son.
She does not listen to logic of any kind.
Please help I have idea what to do!
_________

There is only one way into her head. Tell her if she obligates you to a condo deal, it’s divorce. Make sure you have mustered the resolve to actually do it before you start talking too.

Females like security, Dear Wife sees the condo as future security. She will also understand intuitively, without even having to think about it; that all of said security goes out the window when you walk out the door. No marriage, no house, no condo, no nothing – just single motherhood and living hand to mouth. It’ll suck right across the board.

Do not try to reason with a Woman all jacked up on FOMO, dopamine and emotional as hell – waste of time. There is no way to reason with her – the only messages that will penetrate the fog are emotional ones – simple to understand ones – scary ones. She will do the math all on her own – all you have to do is make sure she believes you’ll actually bail out.

#127 Sourcing on 12.20.18 at 12:01 pm

#122 Evangeline – In Canada chicken is being sourced from Asian markets which is why I stopped buying boxed frozen chicken anything. Watch out for boxed frozen fish because it too is being sourced from Asian markets. Guess who does the packaging in Canada for you to purchase at the grocery store? Canadian brand name companies, and they are doing the same with pet food. This is not to say some domestic product is being used because they mix it in for greater profits.

#128 konie on 12.20.18 at 12:11 pm

Here is one i really had to post.
bought in Feb 2017 for $925k
Sold 8 days ago for $730k
This is not even the high end market. Most likely regular folks who would travel to Toronto from Bradford for work

https://housesigma.com/web/house/0Zaw5YoDQeDyn961/82-Barrow-Ave-Bradford-West-Gwillimbury-L3Z0W1-N4314728

#129 TurnerNation on 12.20.18 at 12:28 pm

66 Godth your science told us that GMO crops would feed the world. Now where is it? Do tell us that science. Making crops resistant. Why not grow Figs and Dates in a warm clime? Something we can eat always will grow.

Turn every indoor WEED grow op into growing food Duh! It’s science. Which you have misplaced. There are massive new Weed legal grow ops, hundreds of thousands of square feet opening all over North America.

#130 n1tro on 12.20.18 at 12:59 pm

#118 Godth on 12.20.18 at 10:29 am
#115 n1tro
i could list a whole litany of things we could do from not wasting 40% of food, local seasonal food, driving small cars (not monster trucks/suvs), driving a lot less, smaller more efficient houses, etc. but we’ve heard that for decades and where’s that got us? Mcmansions and monster trucks. jevon’s paradox and science denying pigs at the trough. in the end there are too many people consuming too much planet and it all burns fossil fuel every step of the way, even “green” technology. http://vaclavsmil.com/category/books/
LIMITS – words nobody wants to hear
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rNV0xXy5oSg

it’s too late for that regardless, we’ve already locked in more than 2 c warming, insects are going the way of the dodo and crops are cooking/flooding which will only increase. my suggestion is that we shut down the nuclear reactors and try to safely dispose of the spent fuel rods while we still can, before we’re bathing in ionizing radiation as civilization is collapsing around us.

“Second, in both Europe and the United States, prolonged heat waves have shut down or derated multiple nuclear plants simultaneously when sources of cooling water got too hot.”
https://rmi.org/fuel-hand-make-coal-nuclear-power-plants-valuable/
—————————-
So you admit the efforts that we have been told to do is having little impact. That’s progress.

My question is, if individual efforts are ineffective because the majority are glutinous, then how would a carbon tax with no specific agenda help anything other than fattening up the people collecting the money?

I think the majority of the users here are more concerned with the cash grab than flat out denying that human consumption is having a negative affect on the earth.

So why is it that when someone says the Paris Climate Accord is garbage, they are labelled as climate “deniers” when the essence of the accord is to allow polluting companies to keep polluting with the option to improve at their own pace while putting the burden on mostly efficient countries?

#131 Alistair McLaughlin on 12.20.18 at 1:02 pm

@#22 Tristan, Winnipeg home prices have tripled since 2000. Yes, tripled. This according to the Teranet House Price Index, which had Winnipeg at 66.46 in January 2000, and 209.95 last month.

Don’t take my word for it:

https://housepriceindex.ca/#chart_compare=mb_winnipeg

Still think it’s a good time to invest in Winnipeg real estate? All the reasons why Winnipeg had cheap housing in 2000 are still there, except for the cheap housing.

#132 Godth on 12.20.18 at 1:17 pm

#129 TurnerNation
that counts as “thinking” in your world, eh?

“IN HIS BOOK A Short History of Progress, Ronald Wright coins the term “progress trap.” A progress trap, says Wright, is a short-term social or technological improvement that turns out in the longer term to be a backward step. By the time this is realized—if it ever is—it is too late to change course.”
https://orionmagazine.org/article/dark-ecology/

Farmers are drawing groundwater from the giant Ogallala Aquifer faster than nature replaces it
https://phys.org/news/2018-08-farmers-groundwater-giant-ogallala-aquifer.html

“But the current drought plaguing the region is unusually strong and persistent, driving farmers to rely more on the aquifer and sharpening the debate over its future. A current assessment by the U.S. Drought Monitor, published by the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, shows large swaths of the southern plains experiencing drought ranging from “severe” to “exceptional.””

#133 Alistair McLaughlin on 12.20.18 at 1:33 pm

@#56 CTO, IHTDC9 is right. Either you threaten divorce now, or she will divorce you at some future date, if only to avoid admitting that you were right. Worse, she might blame you: “You didn’t exactly move heaven and earth to stop me from buying that condo did you??!!!!!”

I feel for you buddy. You’re in a tough spot, and there is not guarantee of a positive outcome.

#134 Shawn Allen on 12.20.18 at 1:55 pm

November Inflation Numbers with and without gasoline

#106 Stan Brooks on 12.20.18 at 4:48 am said:
Some more statistical lies:

Canada’s annual inflation rate drops sharply on lower gas prices

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/canadas-annual-inflation-rate-drops-134436946.html

When gas goes up there is no inflation.
When it goes down, temporarily, very small decline, suddenly there is deflation.

*************************************
I guess Stan views it all as lies but the reported numbers for year over year inflation for November were:

All items 1.7%
All items excluding food 1.5%
All items excluding food and energy 1.7%
All items excluding gasoline 1.9%

Looks like an argument could be made that other than gasoline we are still running close to 2%… So Stan does have a point that the headline should not crow quite so much about low inflation. That is not a lie, that is spin.

Alcohol and tobacco were up a hefty 4.6% Does this explain why Stan sees such high inflation?

Food was up 2.2%

Shelter, which everyone complained for so many years is not being reflected properly, was up 2.4%. They go by higher mortgage and rent payments and not directly by market value changes in houses.

Gasoline was down 5.5%

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/181219/t001a-eng.htm

#135 Godth on 12.20.18 at 2:01 pm

#130 n1tro
that’s the thing isn’t it, the top polluting corporations need to be brought to task and the most affluent conspicuous consumers need to stop. why isn’t that happening?

i agree a non targeted tax is just another scam, more business as usual. then there’s scientific reticence, many scientists are in fear of losing their jobs if they tell it like it is while others admit this is happening. the stories they tell behind closed doors is much worse than the company line they tow in public.

i’m not pretending we’re going to change any of this by choice. it’d be a nice gesture if we didn’t nuke the planet on the way down though. maybe we could be responsible enough to do that one kindness…then there’s trump.

#136 Options on 12.20.18 at 2:54 pm

#55 Cto – Why buy any condo in the GTA? You haven’t done your homework by showing her a better option. Just move if you are portable with education, a trade; a profession; enough money; or skills in demand.

#137 n1tro on 12.20.18 at 3:05 pm

#135 Godth on 12.20.18 at 2:01 pm
#130 n1tro
that’s the thing isn’t it, the top polluting corporations need to be brought to task and the most affluent conspicuous consumers need to stop. why isn’t that happening?

++++Because people inherently are selfish by nature even virtue signalling Liberals++++

i agree a non targeted tax is just another scam, more business as usual. then there’s scientific reticence, many scientists are in fear of losing their jobs if they tell it like it is while others admit this is happening. the stories they tell behind closed doors is much worse than the company line they tow in public.

++++++++++++ ^I think this is what most people think here. It doesn’t help that there is evidence out there that some of the scientific data being collected was fudged and/or wildly extrapolated, it casts doubt on the whole establishment.

i’m not pretending we’re going to change any of this by choice. it’d be a nice gesture if we didn’t nuke the planet on the way down though. maybe we could be responsible enough to do that one kindness…then there’s trump.
+++++++++++ I agree with you up until the Trump comment. To date, has any new wars started? Are drone strikes still killing the sons of “warlords” which may one day strike the US? Has N. Korea launched its nuke yet?

Trump is many things but a war monger is not one of them.

#138 Doug in London on 12.20.18 at 3:59 pm

Forget about houses. Has anyone been watching the stock markets lately? There are some AMAZING deals out there presently. Did I sleep through Christmas Day? Probably, because the Boxing Day sales are on RIGHT NOW!

#139 Stan Brooks on 12.20.18 at 4:08 pm

Boom…..
25 billion of investments… gone

ExxonMobil shelves Canada LNG export project

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/exxonmobil-shelves-canada-lng-export-project/ar-BBRdNiV

#140 espressobob on 12.20.18 at 4:40 pm

Corrections are a thing of wonder. The emotional distress of some retail investors is most amusing as they panic. Generally dumping positions and claiming that it’s all a con game. Going into cash ain’t the way to play this game.

Unfortunately, Mr. Market rarely provides buying opportunities like the current carnage. The best buy trades are usually the ones that make one sick to their stomach.

#141 December 28th on 12.20.18 at 6:26 pm

#138 Doug in London – I see a few bargains, but am stuck until December 28th in order to make capital gains adjustments going forward.

#142 Patient Buyer on 12.23.18 at 2:46 am

Or for a fifth of the price you could have a 16-bedroom chateau in France and a $10 million balanced portfolio.
https://www.prestigeproperty.co.uk/16-bed-french-chateau-carcassonne-aude-languedoc-roussillon-france-210469 I know what I’d rather have!