Extremism

Thinking in extremes gets you into trouble. When markets go down, extremists fear they’ll fall to zero. They sell. When houses go up, extremists think they’ll inflate forever. They buy. History shows both extremes never happen. Yet people are convinced.

When the Fed hints rate hikes might end, extremists think free money is back. The next moves will be down, they cry. Mortgages are going back to 2%. Time to get house-horny. But on Wednesday the world’s biggest central bank will disprove that thinking, too, as its hikes rates for the 10th time.

The odds of this happening (according to the markets) sit at 80%.

  So another quarter point will likely be added, with everyone hanging off each word in the official statement, looking to see if the hawks or the doves are winning. It leads to the larger question of whether ten rate increases is too much for the economy to swallow – along with Trump, a trade war and a mother of a deficit – leading the Fed to call it a day. Some people think a recession will happen by the end of 2019. Others peg an inevitable slowdown for 2020. But that’s a presidential election year, and if he survives that long, will Trump allow the economy to reverse?

Nah, doubt it. And his Big Move will be a sweeping deal with China. Tariffs on Chinese goods are already costing the US economy billions, hurting corporate profits, dropping stocks and jeopardizing jobs among Trump’s army of blue collar devotees. Looks like our gal Meng will be a pawn in this whole thing, her Vancouver arrest being no coincidence. We were played.

Anyway, what’s it mean for us? Will cheap mortgages and bidding wars come back?

The Bank of Canada has pushed rates higher five times, or half as aggressively as the Fed. The next decision day comes in early January (the 9th). The latest jobs report was a blockbuster, showing that despite gloom, debt, winter, Maple Leafs, Comrade Horgan, oil and $6 cauliflower, the economy’s okay. In fact renewed demand for Canadian crude and the surge in WCS prices has people thinking Alberta’s cap on production (which depresses economic activity) won’t last long.

Besides, next month we head into an election year in Canada. The latest polls put Mr. Socks and the Tory leader about equal, since Mad Max has yet to emerge as a spoiler. So you can expect the April, 2019 budget to be all about fiscal stimulus as the Liberals stress economic growth and opportunity for the Millennial hordes – something that’s hard to pull off if we’re into a recession.

It all means rate hikes will be with us for a while yet, but in moderation. One this week for the Fed, maybe two more next year in the US, while Canada sees one increase in the spring and another in the fall. But no cuts. Not until it’s truly warranted. And don’t wish for that.

So a China-US trade deal would be cheered by financial markets since it reduces business costs, eases uncertainty and deflates inflation. Likewise the Fed turning dovish would also bolster investor confidence. And a cornered Trump looking to re-election will be pushing every button possible to Make America Gr…etc. Meanwhile T2 needs to point to a shiny economic future to make up for four years of red ink and shattered 2015 election promises.

Not so bad for investors in financial assets, it would seem. But real estate in 2019 is far less certain. Sales have dropped by a meaningful amount in most markets, but prices have proven sticky. It means if mortgage costs remain stable or rise a little and the stress test stays in place that a heavily indebted nation is unlikely to see housing rekindle. After all, why would it happen? Houses still cost a stupid amount compared to what Americans pay. We are among the only people on earth willing to gamble 10 or 12 times our annual income on a property. And already family debt is greater than the entire economy.

Look at Toronto and Vancouver, of course. Poster burgs for delusional behaviour. As we reported last week, CMHC points out that debt-to-income ratios have crested as never before – 208% in the GTA and 242% in Van.

Most of this debt is related to residential housing. While about 66% of all borrowing in the nation is in the form of mortgages, in Van it tops 80%. The debt-to-income ratio means a big whack of people in the region have snorfled so many loans that their only possible salvation is continued price appreciation. But, instead, the market is unstable and about to get worse. Toronto ain’t much better. CMHC has already told us most people buying $1 million+ listings have debt ratios of 450% or more.

A reasonable conclusion: cheaper house prices are a done deal. The real estate boom is done. Gone. There’s no rate cut coming. But when it does eventually arrive, so will recession. If you truly need real estate and can afford it without gutting your finances, fine. Go ahead.

Finally, stop sending me letters like this. Sheesh. Man up, Jamie.

My fiancé and I are debating purchasing a house in Victoria, BC (pause for eye-roll). I’m 35, he’s 37 and we have roughly 1.5 million between the two of us (cash and balanced diversified investments). I’m employed and make 180K a year. He is a yacht captain and is seeking to start a land-based home business.

We are currently living in my 1 bedroom condo (I owe 274k on the 2.49% fixed mortgage) and desperately need something larger with a yard/land. In past both he and I have done quite well with property investments and we have yet to suffer a realty-sting. We’re keen to fix something up and live in it for 3-5 years minimum (he’s very handy). We don’t like the idea of renting and asking permission to paint, plant gardens, etc…

We are watching house prices drop since October’s rate hike and are questioning whether we should hold off on purchasing until after the Feds raise the rates again next year (or longer)?

177 comments ↓

#1 Moses71 on 12.16.18 at 3:43 pm

Stay in 3-5 years with prices going down and interest rates going up? Plus land transfer taxes and realtor fees on top.
Your careers can’t include any math savvy required

#2 Steven Rowlandson on 12.16.18 at 3:43 pm

Beware of continuity bias.

#3 For those about to flop... on 12.16.18 at 3:44 pm

Recent sale report.

This case on the North Shore just came through as sold.

The details…

351 Beachview Dr,North Vancouver.

Paid 2.08 October 2017

Originally asking 2.37

Just sold for 1.80

Assessment 2.14

So they just crystallized a near 20% loss or nearly a 400k tap to the temple.

Real estate in Vancouver is portrayed as a cant lose proposition by The Sell Squad.

These guys just found out it can be a real beach…

M44BC

2018-05-04 : $2,375,000
2018-06-26 : $2,075,000
2018-09-05 : $2,050,000
2018-10-01 : $1,995,000
2018-10-11 : $1,888,000
2018-11-26 : $1,938,000

https://www.zolo.ca/north-vancouver-real-estate/351-beachview-drive

#4 TurnerNation on 12.16.18 at 3:45 pm

We see globally an agenda rolled out perfect in its synchronicity: Debt, debt, debt, and forced migration – getting people off their lands and into cities.
Extreme climate change religion forced onto everyone, dialing us back into stone age living. While dirty war-making continues, and our elites sup like kings.
Technology as a solution? No this won’t be offered to us.

T1 began this; T2 will finish. IMF fresh from a South American trip – are they circling?

All this debt what do you see for it? Crumbling infra, 2nd world conditions. All that loot given away overseas to UN pet causes; T2 tweets it.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-14/blackrock-warns-canada-s-borrowing-is-crowding-out-companies

#5 Extremes on 12.16.18 at 4:04 pm

“History shows both extremes never happen”

House and condo prices more than tripled in less than 10 years in the GTA and YVR. That’s fairly extreme, no?

#6 ww1 on 12.16.18 at 4:11 pm

Early for a Sunday post ?

#7 SmarterSquirrel on 12.16.18 at 4:13 pm

Whether you think Garth is right and the next year or so sees improving markets as Trump and Trudeau push for growth, or whether the economy slows down despite the best efforts of the leaders of Canada and the US, I try to position a part of my portfolio in things that should do fine either way. For example I think people will buy cheap hormone free burgers ( https://smartersquirrel.com/invest/burgers-with-dividends-a-w-revenue-royalties-income-fund ) in good times and bad. Maybe liquor businesses do ok either way, you drink to celebrate and you drink to commiserate. REITS tend to keep doing fine as long as their tenants stick around. Infrastructure plays may be ok. People still heat and light their houses so utilities may do ok. Always diversify and don’t be totally in staple steady business but keep some of it in your portfolio if you have enough invested to go beyond just holding ETFs.

#8 Pickle Jar on 12.16.18 at 4:20 pm

First Eh!

#9 Buy? Curious? on 12.16.18 at 4:22 pm

Financial Charts = cowbell.

https://youtu.be/oNHP5Z7RZcA

#10 pra on 12.16.18 at 4:23 pm

It’s a slow day so out of curiosity I took a look at the ten year chart for the VIX (Venture Exchange). At one time it was the place to make a lot of money. No 60/40 there. Buy lots, run with it, sell it all. No investing. Trading and speculating. Murray Pezem days. The ten year chart shows it at 2,464.78 high and Friday at 555.38. It’s probably a good thing. Fewer ways to part fools from their money. Instead of gambling on a pile of dirt with a liar on top, they buy real estate at maxed prices. Some articles about people being scammed out of their money through real estate developments. Buildings never get built. The money disappears. Hmm, maybe it is just a pile of dirt with a liar on top. Real estate has become the new VIX.

#11 Jamie Bannon on 12.16.18 at 4:32 pm

FIRST BABY!!!

#12 dakkie on 12.16.18 at 4:32 pm

The Bubble Bursts: Vancouver Home Prices Plunge 8.5%, Biggest Annual Drop Since 2009

http://www.investmentwatchblog.com/the-bubble-bursts-vancouver-home-prices-plunge-8-5-biggest-annual-drop-since-2009/

#13 The Fat Lady on 12.16.18 at 4:46 pm

WHO CARES GARTH!!!!

WEEDS LEGAL.

YOUR PRIME MINISTER SAID SO.

GO BLAZE A JOINT AND BE HAPPY.

EVERYTHINGS’ GONNA BE ALRIGHT

#14 YANGSTER on 12.16.18 at 4:56 pm

First

#15 AK on 12.16.18 at 4:59 pm

“Some people think a recession will happen by the end of 2019. Others peg an inevitable slowdown for 2020. But that’s a presidential election year.”
=====================================
Probably not until 2021. Doubt it happens while President Trump is on the campaign trail.

It looks like he will be running against Joe Biden. It will be a very entertaining campaign.

#16 Surfing Pikachu on 12.16.18 at 5:13 pm

“reasonable conclusion: cheaper house prices are a done deal. The real estate boom is done. Gone.”

For you blog dogs who know that Toronto is a city in Canada, apartments located at the infamous Jane & Finch San Romano Way have had price increases of 50%-80% for new tenants. Back in 2009, it used to be $1,000/mnthly for a 2-bedroom apartment located in the crime capital of Toronto, but new tenants have to pay almost $1,800-$2,000 for the same unit.

REITs have forced new tenants to pay for their own utilities for the slum lord apartments. Or maybe they are hipsters willing to pay for the world cuisine smells emanating from nearby apartments. But still costlier than a flight to Asia.

An almost 100% increase in less than 8 years.
Kathleen Wynne’s Agenda 21 policy in effect.

#17 Shawn Allen on 12.16.18 at 5:16 pm

Extreme Price Declines?

“Thinking in extremes gets you into trouble. When markets go down, extremists fear they’ll fall to zero. They sell.”

*******************************
Absolutely. Memory can be faulty but I am sure I remember numerous people posting here circa 2010 (or whenever the bottom was) that U.S. house prices would just keep going down.

Even as some people were buying and it was a Golden opportunity for retirees to buy in the U.S. with our dollar around par, the extremists saw U.S. houses continuing to go down.

People forget that back then with oil very high and California going broke one and other States in bad shape one could seriously joke about Alberta buying one of the U.S. states. Now it’s the opposite. That too, shall pass.

#18 Exodus2020 on 12.16.18 at 5:18 pm

If real estate prices drop, any chances of cheaper rent? $2000 for a two bed in Vancouver and that is apparently cheap, I need a three bed soon and they are $2700 and up.

#19 OttawaMike on 12.16.18 at 5:22 pm

A good read about doomers and staying invested.
https://rpseawright.wordpress.com/2018/12/16/fear-not/

#20 Crazyfox on 12.16.18 at 5:23 pm

You are wise to council against extremes, Garth.

Rates will rise. This will not surprise anyone. The markets are correcting from its froth as expected, not a surprise there either. When valuations have taken such a long runup, markets get jittery. Anything can set it off and we are seeing it play out but what will it take to turn a correction into a crash? Bad data! And, its not there.

What will rates do in the U.S. if world growth slows as a result of trade wars? They will still rise as long as U.S. economic data is strong and it will be for at least 1 more quarter meaning in my mind, another rate hike in Q1 of 2019.

The question is for how long will the U.S. economy perform well. If U.S. and China come up with a trade deal of any kind, will it result in a slowing U.S. economy? No, obviously. No matter what happens with trade, what I see is more U.S. economic strength leading to higher rate hikes in Q4 and Q1 of 2019. The question for me is inflation and we won’t see it go off the charts unless tariffs with China head toward 25%. I doubt this will happen. It still could, but I doubt it.

Beyond this, it gets harder to predict. I mean, I still maintain next year will be a year of political instability and therefore risk and it has to be priced in. I also think the U.S. economy will slow down in the second half of the year. Trump’s policies are only good for short term profits, they aren’t designed for 4 years or strong growth so forget some magic sustained plateau of U.S. economic growth into the end of 2020, it won’t happen. All the deregulation will come home to haunt especially so in the 4th year.

There will be no Trump run for the presidency in 2020, Trump will be impeached by then, possibly as soon as the 3rd or 4th quarter of 2019 as a consequence of investigation findings. The timeline of Trump’s impeachment is hard to predict but predicates on Muller’s findings more than any other investigation. The Dems could try to impeach Trump on campaign fraud… the Republicans might go for it to control the damage…. that could still happen but I think Muller’s investigation will be the killer with Republicans having inside dope on what will come and they will control the damage impeaching Trump before the news breaks… potentially. :)

Trump will not ultimately be the hill Republicans die on. I think its a bit late for that, but they will try to salvage themselves when they know its lost and impeach Trump by the end of next year even with control of the Senate. I thought Trump might leg out the end of his term as little as month ago, but he’s done. Too many investigations have begun while the Republicans control all 3 houses, this should tell us something. The powers that be in the military, intelligence, likely everywhere but big oil want him gone now. Wall street has what it wants in corporate tax cuts, they have no use for him now other than status quo but what do they get with that other than more risk.

I think the big banks want Trump gone now as well. The 1% has its tax cuts and the land owners have their land tax transfers. What is needed now for the rich is stability and they don’t have that with this WH but that’s for another conversation.

You must know by now Garth that I look for long term risk, stuff that is not hyperbole but very real and everyone will have to get on board regardless of sacrifices or its all lost. The threats of extremism are very real, the potential threat existing within our lifetimes. Today? Its not there but this bland filler, color, context but by no means is it the bottom line. That’s for another comment… perhaps I will now.

#21 Uh Oh! on 12.16.18 at 5:23 pm

The yield curves are inverting…watch out! The economy has paused and a recession is around the bend. The mainstream media is trying to control the narrative that it “doesn’t matter” but it does!

A rate cut will not happen before elections even though it’s required right now. This strategic political movement by the BOC (independance is a myth) will not allow for the Liberal FAILURES!

#22 Kilt on 12.16.18 at 5:33 pm

He is a yacht captain.
In other word’s he is unemployed.

Kilt

#23 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.16.18 at 5:37 pm

@#12 dakkie
“The Bubble Bursts: Vancouver Home Prices Plunge 8.5%, Biggest Annual Drop Since 2009”
++++
If your a Realtor….its a good time to buy because prices have dropped……
Never mind about their clients …..its alllll about the commish.

#24 France on 12.16.18 at 5:39 pm

A fifth person dies in France by the hand of that flithy terrorist ( Polish national ).
As a Polish national myself I can safely say, we don’t need that scum in my country.

Niech zyje Polska.
Take that Brussels.

#25 joblo on 12.16.18 at 5:39 pm

New 2019 anthem for the place formerly known as Canada:

O Post Nation State
Our home on the natives land
True patriot love in all peoplekinds command.
With glowing hearts we see our debts rise,
The True North strong and nothings free!
From far and wide,
O Post Nation State, we stand by our unguarded non-existent borders for thee.
UN keep our land glorious and free for all
O Post Nation State, we stand by our unguarded non-existent borders for thee.
O Post Nation State, we stand by our unguarded non-existent borders for thee.

#26 Fish on 12.16.18 at 5:47 pm

Saving for retirement

Example: How much you need to save each month if you start to save for retirement early

Suppose you plan to retire in 20 years. You want to save $75,000 for your retirement. You’re earning an annual interest rate of 5% compounded on your savings.

Compare how much you would have to save each month if you start to save now or in 10 years. When you have 20 years to save instead of 10 years, you have to put $14,160 less into the bank to reach your goal.

This is because you earn more money in interest the longer you save. In this example, you earn $14,020 more in interest when you have 20 years to save than when you have 10 years to save.

Table 1: Compare how much you would have to save each month if you start to save now or 10 years

https://www.canada.ca/en/financial-consumer-agency/services/retirement-planning/start-saving-retirement.html

#27 Crazyfox on 12.16.18 at 5:49 pm

The greatest risk to the world economy comes from 2 factors: food production/manufacturing and climate change. Both are related somewhat but will lead to economic extremes and I’m quite sure that the food manufacturing industry through regulation alone is leading to economic extremes right now. This link below is well worth the watch for economic and political reasons, not to mention has the potential to extend the lives of you and yours:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bhh19cQukfg

I am still blown away by this the stat that more than 1 in 2 adults have a metabolic disorder in the U.S. now. How can this not effect health care budgets, productivity and longevity:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metabolic_disorder

The longer food manufacturers have their way with government, the longer human health world wide will suffer and weaken, possibly bankrupt nations depending on how poorly it is handled. The systemic risk is very real and some would argue is already economically extreme, we’ve just papered it over in the U.S. by the federal government borrowing 40% more than it takes in with taxes… like regressive Japan. That can’t last and won’t end well.

Is there any political will or even awareness at present to address it? I don’t see it. To me, that’s an extreme threat to world wide economic stability and few are talking about it. Addictive sugar! Who knew.

Cont.

#28 april on 12.16.18 at 5:52 pm

Ross Kay’s tweet: “Once again @garthturner does it again what no msn does in Canada. The #FakeHousingNews Canadians are exposed to daily is revealed in his last post. greater fool.ca/2018/12the…”

#29 palebird on 12.16.18 at 6:00 pm

#20

Trump is going nowhere except into a second term. The Dems have nothing, it is a huge joke and the whole dog and pony show that they are running since Trump took over will blow up in their face.

#30 Linda on 12.16.18 at 6:08 pm

I’m wondering whether those robust job numbers are the result of holiday seasonal hiring. If so the next jobs report may not be as rosy. Whether that will limit the BOC to only two rate hikes in 2019 is anyone’s guess.

If Trump is going to use Ms. Meng as a bargaining chip, so much for the much vaunted rule of law. Justice appears to hinge on whether the USA gets a deal with China that will look like a win for Trump. One trusts that the Canadians detained by China in retaliation for Ms. Meng’s arrest appreciate how lucky they are to be a part of this political maneuver. It is unlikely they will be enjoying the same conditions as Ms. Meng during their sojourn in China’s penal system.

‘Jamie’ doesn’t give any detail as to why this couple ‘requires’ more space & a yard. My guess is that a purchase will occur & ‘Jamie’ just wants validation that it is the right thing to do. Sorry J, this decision is on you.

#31 renter in Surrey on 12.16.18 at 6:13 pm

A reasonable conclusion: cheaper house prices are a done deal. The real estate boom is done. Gone.
———————————————————————————————-

just checked the valley on zolo, every decent SFH is about $1mil+
reasonable conclusion: two more immaterial rate hikes in 2019 will do nothing

#32 Crazyfox on 12.16.18 at 6:18 pm

The other extreme risk to the world’s economy is climate change. the Arctic cap has lost 75% of its sea ice volume over the last 40 years. By this trend, in 13 years its gone only our arctic cap will go sooner as that last 1.5 feet or so of ice will break up in high winds and waves and be gone much like ice breaks up on a lake in spring. Look for 2 back to back El Nino years to do it within the next 10 years, possibly as quickly as 2022, totally logical and all that follows is logical too. To set up the risk that follows, a lecture from Jennifer Francis is a must watch:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kijRsQc-wrA

Jennifer lays it out well as to what happens as we lose our sea ice in that we lose our tempurature gradient slowing down jet streams that wander and become blocked in consistent patterns that intensify droughts and floods (moving more northward as our gradient disappears), none of which is good going forward especially in higher lattitudes dramatically increasing the risk of melting permafrost (methane release) and ice sheet destablization in Greenland. The potential global tempurature increase from methyl hydrate stores in the sea and below permafrost… my very best guess is 2.5 degree’s C and could be released within a decade of losing our arctic sea ice. Its a guess, but still logical.

Even so, the greatest risk from climate change isn’t flood or drought that will no doubt effect crops and cause damage as storms come more intense, its SLR. Simply put, there is nothing that can cause massive coastal flooding (4 metres or higher) without the ice sheets falling apart and Eric Rignot, speaker of a lecture in the link below, gets to the heart of where these risks are.

The best link I could find on just what kind of timeline we are looking at in terms of sea level rise (SLR) is here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AAPPq43iRLs&t=2947s

Eric Rignot is one of the top glaciologists in the world and easy to watch with a friendly accent etc. . Simply put, he’s flown over Greenland and large parts of Antarctica to measure, more than anything else, ice sheet thickness (SLR potential) and changes to thickness indicating ice on the move or retreat, and upon summarizing the land ice potential of ice sheets contributing to total SLR, assess risk. This is what gives his words credibility for Eric has actually been there, been a part of the data collection and has packaged his findings in this presentation.

Its a great vid for those who are interested in the nuts and bolts but the conclusion at the 47 minute mark is this:

– greater than 1M SLR is very likely by end of century.
– SLR commitment with 1.5 to 2 degree C warming:
6 to 9 metres SLR. (this is the holy shit moment, acknowledging this
very fact)
– Time scale of major shift (100 to 200 years, not 1,000 years)
– ASE in West Antarctica is in irreversible retreat (1 m sea level rise).
– 2 out of 3 marine based sectors retreating in Greenland (3 m SLR)
– East Antarctica losing mass at an increasing rate (Totten 4 m SLR)
– the pace of change is fast i.e. decades

Why did the IPCC become so climate change alarmist a month or so ago with the declaration that if the world doesn’t address climate change massively by 2030, it spells disaster for the planet? 2014 was the hottest year on record going back to the 1880’s. 2015 beat 2014 and 2016 beat 2015. 2015 & 2016 were El Nino years while 2017 and 2018 were La Nina years. In the hottest month seen in 2016, the world was 1.5 degrees above the industrial average. (we didn’t notice because it happened in December) What did Eric say, 1.5 to 2C commits us to 6 to 9m of SLR? Keep in mind, the IPCC doesn’t factor in Methane release feedbacks and predicts a 1 in 100 year occurance of arctic sea ice free summers if we can keep global temp rise to 1.5 C. The IPCC is sounding alarm bells without telling the world how serious the threats to climate change truly are.

Cont.

#33 Crazyfox on 12.16.18 at 6:19 pm

Lets look at it another way. We are, right now at 409 ppm of C02, an increase of 130 ppm’s since pre industrial times. It fluxuates 3 to 4 ppm throughout a calendar year, but that’s where we are now as of Dec 2018:

https://www.co2.earth/co2-acceleration

At our rate of rising C02 emissions, we are adding an estimated 2.4 ppm per year average over the next 10 years. In the next 20 years of world C02 emissions, we will add, with business as usual, at least another 48 ppm and this assumes 2028 to 2038 flatlines at 2.4 ppm which it likely will as the world electrifies transporation.

Our world has warmed 1.1 degrees C since 1960. Simple math dictates the world will be 1.5 C warmer by 2038 as tempuratures rise lock step with C02 equivalent green house gases (C02 equivalance is rising with the same ratio of C02 so we’ve using C02) and 2 degrees C by 2065. This doesn’t account for negative feedbacks on the environment such as summer ice gone from the arctic cap, methane release from melting permafrost and sea methane hydrates or snow retreats earlier in the year with continued warming.

It gets worse. This next video touches on 5 themes of rising global temp:
– Ozone loss
– Rate of sea level rise
– Gulf stream slowdown
– Melting ice weight displacement on earth’s crust triggering earthquakes
and volcanoes
– Methyl hydrate release from melting permafrost

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mIrnJwMPzY4

The biggest risk from climate change once again is? SLR. It’s not just by way of coastal flooding which would, if it comes quickly disrupt some 75% of the world’s population concentrated on ocean coast lines… Its the threat of earthquakes and volcanoes triggered by melting ice weight displacement on earth’s crust (i.e. melting ice sheets in Greenland/Antarctica). Its best explained in the link below:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DNWGlzHC2ss

Excellent lecture from the link above. Little gems like earthquakes having a season (November through March) triggered by ice loss (like the earthquakes that hit Alaska a couple weeks ago) are dwarfed by the impacts of climate change on earthquakes and volcanoes. This is where it gets biblical… earthquakes and volcanoes triggered by the greatest threat of all with SLR, greater than coastal flooding that is in itself, predicably highly disruptive to civiliation.

Rapid SLR has the potential to change the atmopshere dramatically through earth quakes an volcanoes triggering flood basalts and changing the chemistry of the atmosphere as we know it. Its the end game of climate change… the dark truth of human karma.

Do we have a chance to stop this? But why stop now when there’s so much winning!!! Greed is good!!!!! Just ask Trump:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7OcldMG932o

#34 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.16.18 at 6:21 pm

Yo Flop!
Time to put this in the “Pink Snow” file.
The most expensive Condo in Canada just knocked $8 million off its asking price……
Any takers out there ?

https://www.vancouverisawesome.com/2018/12/14/most-expensive-condo-canada-vancouver-29million/

#35 common sense on 12.16.18 at 6:24 pm

Garth’s WORD of the day.

NEED

aka “IF you NEED a house, go ahead.”

Not If you WANT a house, go ahead..both 4 letter words with a world of difference.

#36 Oh Crap I've Run Out of Money And Its Only The 10th on 12.16.18 at 6:28 pm

How did that happen ?

#37 Crazyfox on 12.16.18 at 6:30 pm

Apologies for any duplications… distractions, sloppy if I did, hope I don’t send this twice but here goes.

Climate change cont.

Lets look at it another way. We are, right now at 409 ppm of C02, an increase of 130 ppm’s since pre industrial times. It fluxuates 3 to 4 ppm throughout a calendar year, but that’s where we are now as of Dec 2018:

https://www.co2.earth/co2-acceleration

At our rate of rising C02 emissions, we are adding an estimated 2.4 ppm per year average over the next 10 years, solid numbers best as I can tell. In the next 20 years of world C02 emissions, we will add, with business as usual, at least another 48 ppm and this assumes 2028 to 2038 flatlines at 2.4 ppm which it likely will as the world electrifies transporation.

Our world has warmed 1.1 degrees C since 1960. Simple math dictates the world will be 1.5 C warmer by 2038 as tempuratures rise lock step with C02 equivalent green house gases (C02 equivalence at 495 ppm is rising with the same ratio of C02 so using C02 is ok for now until methane release kicks in) and 2 degrees C by 2065. This doesn’t account for negative feedbacks on the environment such as summer ice gone from the arctic cap, methane release from melting permafrost and sea methane hydrates or snow retreats earlier in the year with continued warming.

It gets worse. This next video touches on 5 themes of rising global temp:
– Ozone loss
– Rate of sea level rise
– Gulf stream slowdown
– Melting ice weight displacement on earth’s crust triggering earthquakes
and volcanoes
– Methyl hydrate release from melting permafrost

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mIrnJwMPzY4

The biggest risk from climate change once again is? SLR. It’s not just by way of coastal flooding which would, if it comes quickly disrupt some 75% of the world’s population concentrated on ocean coast lines… Its the threat of earthquakes and volcanoes triggered by melting ice weight displacement on earth’s crust (i.e. melting ice sheets in Greenland/Antarctica). Its best explained in the link below:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DNWGlzHC2ss

Excellent lecture from the link above. Little gems like earthquakes having a season (November through March) triggered by ice loss (like the earthquakes that hit Alaska a couple weeks ago, yes, triggered by man made climate change) are dwarfed by the impacts of climate change on earthquakes and volcanoes. This is where it gets biblical… earthquakes and volcanoes triggered by the greatest threat of all with SLR, greater than coastal flooding that is in itself, predicably highly disruptive to civiliation.

Rapid SLR has the potential to change the atmopshere dramatically through earth quakes an volcanoes triggering flood basalts and changing the chemistry of the atmosphere as we know it. Its the end game of climate change… the dark truth of human karma.

Do we have a chance to stop this? But why stop now when there’s so much winning!!! Greed is good!!!!! Just ask Trump:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7OcldMG932o

#38 Organized Libtards on 12.16.18 at 6:48 pm

#57 Smoking Man on 12.15.18 at 12:11 am

Organized Libtards killing creativity.
Go with a Hawaiian shirt and flip flops.
——————–
So creative, just like any other old guy.

#39 Dolce Vita on 12.16.18 at 6:49 pm

THAT was one heck of a comprehensive and great Blog today Garth, I ‘gotta hand it to you for telling it like it is. And I’m in an equal DIATRIBE mood tonight as well, so here goes…

We are headed for a RECESSION, end of 1st Qtr 2019 and the truth will come out then and not now.

You can’t even trust StatCan to give you the truth anymore.

Again (as I have posted before in the past week) their November 2018 Labour Force Survey numbers are ESTIMATED. They chose to publish the biggest estimated number for November. There are 2 other estimates.

Go to the page (link at the bottom) and on the Left side under “Data type” select either the “Unadjusted”, “Seasonally adjusted” or “Trend-cycle” Estimates (click Apply to view the numbers for each estimate) and subtract the “Total employed, all industries” October 2018 number from the November 2018 number and this is what you get:

Unadjusted = 48,900
Seasonally adjusted = 94,100
Trend-cycle = 22,000

Economists expected about 10,000 new jobs. Which of the 3 estimates do you think most closely matches their expectations? The Economists in general never get it right but at least they are in the right ballpark most of the time.

Then there is their Savings Rate bull shit report where they went back as far as 3rd Qtr 2017 and halved historical savings rates already published by 50% or more and declared this December that Cdn. savings rates have gone down by a lot (bad, bad Canadians, as in “bad dog”…as if):

4th Qtr 2017 Savings Rate = 4.5% —> becomes 2.3% in December 2018
1st Qtr Savings Rate = 4.4% —> becomes 1.3% in December 2018
2nd Qtr Savings Rate = 3.4% —> becomes 1.0% in December 2018
3rd Qtr Rate = 0.8% (in December 2018, when the report published)

As I said, did Canadians time warp back in time and spend that money? Well, according to StatCan they did.

How the hell are we supposed to TRUST ANYONE anymore about what we are being told is going on in the economy? We can’t even trust our National Statisticians to not “massage” the numbers to some desired outcome.

Why I come to this Blog every day. At least Garth tells the truth (although, you need to fact check better Garth, per the above numbers).

And the MSM, ALL OF THEM, just parroted the above numbers without checking into them…so SNOWBALLS HOPE IN HELL they’ll ever report anything to the contrary.

I look at signs in the economy, which I have posted about before over the past year, that seem to repeat before a recession (ala RAY DALIO).

We will find out by the end of 1st Qtr 2019, too late for most to do anything about it, that we are in or just started a recession.

And Garth, as for your STICKY 416 prices, you lag YVR by about 3 months. They are in negative territory, even condos, overall by -8.5%…FIRST TIME SINCE 2013.

Trauma’s resale prices will get UNSTUCK by the end of Feb. 2019, soon enough. History repeats and so does human nature.

It isn’t different this time, never has been, never will be…just like you alluded to in your fine Blog today Garth.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1410035501&pickMembers%5B0%5D=1.1&pickMembers%5B1%5D=3.1&pickMembers%5B2%5D=4.3

————————————

Buonanotte.

Must be the weather, am I ever crabby even here in Italia (still better than ice cube plug your car in at night like a toaster Canada or perpetually misted like a fern YVR…diluvial fern as of late I read).

Crabby in Italia —> Bitchy Miserable Demagogue from Hades in Canada.

#40 TheDood on 12.16.18 at 6:53 pm

#31 renter in Surrey on 12.16.18 at 6:13 pm
A reasonable conclusion: cheaper house prices are a done deal. The real estate boom is done. Gone.
———————————————————————————————-

just checked the valley on zolo, every decent SFH is about $1mil+
reasonable conclusion: two more immaterial rate hikes in 2019 will do nothing
________________________________________

Prices are going down, and down, and down……

Run-up took 10 plus years. End of 2019 will see 10-20% drop from end of 2018 pricing, end of 2020 will see 10-20% drop from end of 2019 pricing, and so on and so on and so on.

There is STILL no industry in BC (or Canada for that matter) that pays an income required to buy at current pricing.

#41 Tony on 12.16.18 at 7:01 pm

We’re all well aware of the playbook in America. Always get the 10 year below the 3 percent threshold before raising the Fed funds rate. For anyone who doesn’t know already that’s the playbook.

#42 oncebittwiceshy on 12.16.18 at 7:04 pm

REALTOR in Surrey: “just checked the valley on zolo, every decent SFH is about $1mil+”
<<<<<<<<<<<<

….. but realtor.ca has the following results for SFH under $800,000 between Vancouver and Chilliwack. Hmmm … who to believe?

Results: 864 Listings

#43 millmech on 12.16.18 at 7:10 pm

3315 Townline Road

#31 Renter in Surrey
There are 68 houses like this for under 700k, listed on the REW web page,Chilliwack has 253 house for sale under700k.
Featured Listing Abbotsford West
$649,999
3 Bed 2 Bath 1687 sf
Property Type
House
Listing ID
R232

#44 pay your taxes on 12.16.18 at 7:11 pm

Staring to sound like a real estate agent for the stock market. They go down too and everyone I know is in the red an average of 5 percent. So now we’ve got two of the last 5 years as zero or worse yet the mythical “6.5 to 7%” average is touted on a regular basis.

Nothing rises in a linear manner so why not just spit out the truth? The year started out great and is headed for a crappy end. Maybe next year it will go up 15% and you’ll make your losses back. Maybe “brain dead GICs at 3 % were the best choice for these volatile times.

Hedge fund guys who manage billions are having their heads handed to them. Their clients would love to have lost only 5 percent so there’s no shame in a balanced portfolio taking a beating.

The year has been a bust, but the losses for a B&D portfolio are minor. It did what it was designed to do – reduce volatility. The best part is the 20% gained over the last three years is largely intact. Just relax. – Garth

#45 KLNR on 12.16.18 at 7:14 pm

Jaime, buy what you can afford, enjoy your life.
If its just an investment, you could probably do better elsewhere.

#46 Recalls on 12.16.18 at 7:18 pm

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/canadian-food-industry-recall-cauliflower-red-green-lettuce-1.4948254
I will not buy lettuce products, but only Polish salads in large jars. Will now pass on the cauliflower for more Sauerkraut too.

#47 You know on 12.16.18 at 7:21 pm

Garth please explain,who does the US 0we all these trillions of dollars to??and what if they decide not to pay up?what happens?

#48 Crazyfox on 12.16.18 at 7:24 pm

There are other extremism threats. War, destabilized governments led by kleptocrats or sociopaths within nations possessing highly destructive military weapons are always a threat. The powers that support them, in this generation big oil powers within the U.S., Russia and Saudi Arabia turning a blind eye to the risks of climate change (for greed is blinding) is left plain for all to see. Unchecked pollution from China poses a similar threat.

Putin, arguably the most successful kleptocrat in the world today, the world’s most successful thief, is a killer as is today’s ruling Saudi prince and we tolerate it because of the dependence on oil internationally and locally because of propaganda and lack of choice.

A quick look at Trump’s policy concerning climate change is a tell all in terms of the powers that be that support his presidency. Roll backs on EPA mileage standards with car manufacturers, pro coal subsidies are back, fracking for oil is unabated with the U.S. now producing 12 million BOE’s per day domestically, the untold story in Canadian politics as to why Keystone is so slow to get built as U.S. capacity is already bursting farther south but I digress.

Trump is likely to end green tech subsidies on electric cars before he is impeached. My own view on how Trump has treated U.S. auto manufacturers has been nothing short of treasonous and pro oil regardless of the scientific consequences. Its not increased oil production that I’m against, its anti green tech policy that is so traitorous. We could not have a worse U.S. president for the times. The trade war with china has put the brakes on green tech imports (solar, wind) and it may not be the end of the world but it doesn’t help. For wind and solar to be effective, we need tech advances in storage and I’m hopeful that startups like this:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/don-sadoway-david-bradwell-battery-invention-1.4945615

Tech can change things but it comes late. Without political will in the U.S. and abroad, it will come very late. This is what stresses me most. The threat of greenhouse gas emissions is very real and closer than most realize but what kind of chance with the tech and populations we have at present, what kind of chance do we have to stop it? To that end, I’m divided. Until the world learns to stop electing kleptocrats and corrupt politicians as leaders and followers and start electing individuals who’s intention is to serve the greater good, things will only get worse.

On one hand, the status quo is worth defending. The systems of government, our institutions, we have to have them but the way media is manipulated by the powers that be, the subtle propaganda that squashes stories that need reporting and the not so subtle propaganda that outright lies to the masses leaves so much to be desired. The clear disconnects between government, corporations and consumers in terms of what is best for the systems as a whole are… depressing. Logic dictates that this too, can’t end well.

Everything is at risk in a world where inequality is the normal practice. Lets never forget that. The health of the human mind is entirely dependent on the individual seeing his or herself as an equal in terms of worth or value compared to all the rest regardless of our differences. Don’t believe me? Look at Trump.

Every mental disorder is born from inequality and yet it is learned from generation to generation so early and so young. Every form of discrimination, every crime, every conflict… is born out of inequality and yet, we strive in every way to be superior to our peers and feel believe ourselves to be inferior when we fail. There is such a dramatic need for a reset with this.

Until we realize that we are all equals regardless of our differences, even past choices as individuals and groups, we will not know peace and extremes will persist in human health, in the environment, in every way it can potentially manifest… as it has. Some of it manifests as subtle as sugar, some of it as blatant as greed and the denial of science and truth to fit our paradigm in our daily lives regardless of consequence.

There is hope. Of this I am certain but it will not come without major changes to the way humanity thinks and treats itself specific to our public systems of education, penal systems and rule of law. Unfortunately I fear, collectively we will learn the hard way before we take the far less travelled easy path. This will not come without extremes motivating us toward needed change.

#49 Tony on 12.16.18 at 7:24 pm

Re: #10 pra on 12.16.18 at 4:23 pm

It peaked way back in the year 1983 at around 2,400 when it was the Vancouver stock exchange. That index was never rigged with “funny money”.

#50 Dolce Vita on 12.16.18 at 7:26 pm

#31 renter in Surrey

Detached or SFH in Vancouver (not the valley), dipped by y/y:

-8.5%

1st time since 2009.

Condos dipped by y/y:

-1.8%

First time since 2013.

https://vancitycondoguide.com/vancouver-home-prices-negative/

Garth is correct and you are not. “Hikes” are not immaterial, clearly. And more to come. THIS is just the beginning, it will get worse.

Besides, you always bellyache here about how high prices are, what should those “valley decent SFH” be priced at according to you?

Give some giving, caring, sharing numbers.

#51 Dolce Vita on 12.16.18 at 7:32 pm

This 3 second typed Search text in Google “who holds us debt” yields the following text and chart (stop asking lazy butt questions that you can find the answer to yourself easily):

“As of September 2014, foreigners owned $6.06 trillion of U.S. debt, or approximately 47 percent of the debt held by the public of $12.8 trillion and 34 percent of the total debt of $17.8 trillion. As of 2018, the largest holders were China, Japan, Ireland, and Brazil.”

Pie chart for the reading challenged:

https://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.mygovcost.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/FY2016-A-ownership-US-government-national-debt.png&imgrefurl=http://www.mygovcost.org/2017/05/15/who-owns-the-u-s-national-debt-2/&h=662&w=911&tbnid=zQ4wEJxJDOlsvM:&q=who+holds+us+debt&tbnh=155&tbnw=214&usg=AI4_-kSU085wjRnP9qkP5mcXqyvKDi52TA&vet=12ahUKEwjs15HWzaXfAhUHzoUKHUzhDOQQ9QEwAHoECAUQBg..i&docid=-pI0mNHKYe1_LM&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjs15HWzaXfAhUHzoUKHUzhDOQQ9QEwAHoECAUQBg

#52 Fish on 12.16.18 at 7:34 pm

Industrial capacity utilization rates, third quarter 2018

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/181212/dq181212b-eng.htm?HPA=1

#53 S.Bby on 12.16.18 at 7:35 pm

#31 renter in Surrey

Lots of houses in Surrey and east for $700 – $800 K. Not sure what your agenda is but you are wrong.

#54 For those about to flop... on 12.16.18 at 7:40 pm

#34 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.16.18 at 6:21 pm
Yo Flop!
Time to put this in the “Pink Snow” file.
The most expensive Condo in Canada just knocked $8 million off its asking price……
Any takers out there ?

https://www.vancouverisawesome.com/2018/12/14/most-expensive-condo-canada-vancouver-29million/

//////////////////////////////////

Hey Crowdie,Sold Out pointed it out to me the other day,here is my post about it…

M44BC

————————————————-

For those about to flop… on 12.14.18 at 9:08 pm
Sold Out.

For Flop…

Check out the condo featured in this article. It’s a little rich for a representative Pink Snow listing, and really needs a category that reflects the rarified air that it occupies. May I suggest Pink Truffle?

https://www.nsnews.com/canada-s-priciest-condo-relisted-at-8m-off-original-price-photos-1.23535761

///////////////////////////////

Hey S.O

This Pink Truffle is assessed at over 25m.

I was kind of interested in putting in a lowball offer until I found out they have a two pet policy.

If I’m gonna drop the best part of 30 million, I want to do what I want ,when I want, even if that includes being able to run around in the nud ,while recreating the ark…

M44BC

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/1011-west-cordova-street

#55 Tony on 12.16.18 at 7:40 pm

Re: #20 Crazyfox on 12.16.18 at 5:23 pm

I hope you’re right about Trump as Hillary was supposed to be president and Trump paid off everybody leading up to the election. Trump will slip-up and get impeached. He thinks he’s paid off everyone but he hasn’t. The under/over or betting line is 50/50 in England and Europe.

#56 Dolce Vita on 12.16.18 at 7:48 pm

#46 Recalls

Garth please add to “Garth Turner on…”:

“Polish Salads”

to your Masthead image at the top of the Blog page.

———————————————

PS:

#36 Oh Crap I’ve Run Out of Money And Its Only The 10th

How did that happen ?

THAT was good (funny to).

You can always set up a GoFundMe page and post a link here since this Blog’s Readers are a pretty well healed crowd (well, except for you it seems).

#57 Ex Pat Canuck on 12.16.18 at 7:51 pm

Speaking of the election next year, bill C-76 was recently passed in the Senate. The passage of this bill does many things, among them being “restoring voting rights of Canadians living abroad”. Great news – I will definitely be voting next year. And as I understand it, there are 1.5 million of us ex pat canucks here in the US – if a goodly percentage of them vote in 2019, that might make for a mighty interesting election result. If I recall correctly, Prime Minister Harper took these voting rights away (among several other voting rights which were addressed/remedied in Bill C-76). Interesting times, thanks for the article today Garth, cheers from Oregon!

#58 the ryguy on 12.16.18 at 7:54 pm

Even “if” rates went back down, I still think the market would be coming down. Everyone has a house or 3..who’s buying still?

BTW..can we talk about what scumbags the CRA is? In 2017 I changed the year end date from May 31 to Oct 31 for one of my companies to line up with my other companies. So we did a regular YE for May 31, then a partial year for YE october 31. This year in June CRA says “no we wanted one long year instead”.. really I asked? I paid the total taxes owed already? No you have to refile. Fine..so an extra $3k to accountant to do that work, problem solved right?

Nope. Now they want an EXTRA $21k in addition to what Ive already payed. So I call, “whether I gave you 10 today and 10 tomorrow, or 15 today and 5 tomorrow, what difference does it make?” Still under review sir.

Last week I get a collections notice from them for a “reviewed” total of $13k. Huh? I call collections..no sir were showing you at zero owing..ok call CRA business and they tell me the same thing, I dont owe anything.

Hmmm right? BTW I have MYCRA setup to do everything electronically. So I can log in and see the notice that they think I owe them money..but there is no notice for owing zero. I Wonder how many people just pay to stay off their radar?

Crooks I tell ya.

#59 Re crazy fox on 12.16.18 at 7:55 pm

I find your posts incredibly borring.
However, since you are so passionate about our climate, perhaps you could send your wisdom to China and enlighten them, since they don’t appear to have gotten the memo.

#60 acdel on 12.16.18 at 8:01 pm

#37 Crazyfox

Your name; well, Garth expects all of us to be civilized on this blog so I will not comment further on this or he will do the usual and delete me.

Yes, I agree, first thing is that all of you that live along waterways, coastlines to stop dumping your sewage and chemicals into the lakes, rivers and oceans. Number one killer of everything.

The sun runs on cyclical cycles, always has, always will. It is a large part of the changing weather, always has, always will.

Due to Co2 forests are expanding.
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2018-05/tca-gfe050818.php

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-44113494

https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2017/12/12/why-forests-are-spreading-in-the-rich-world

https://www.earth.com/news/forests-expanding-prosperous-nations/

As Doug said, plant a tree, look after it.

West, East Coast tree huggers, diesel powered cargo ships that drive the economy, fisherman, tourists loving ferry riders that transport gas powered vehicles just so you can spend your hard earn dollars prospering up the Island or coastal communities. How awful that all these petroleum based people and business’s are; sarc!!

Here is a thought, stop dumping your crap into our oceans, number one coal exporter to the Chinese, yep, you guessed it, Vancouver, one of the biggest hypocritical (not all) loudmouths in Canada. Quebec, do not even get me started on them!!

#61 Slowly Boiling Frogs on 12.16.18 at 8:06 pm

Don’t worry about Toronto. Everyone is rich, rich, rich.

I went to the new Japanese store Oomomo this weekend.
The lineup for the cash went along the front of the store, down through the back and started winding around the back wall. This is not a small store, it’s very large and there were at least 200 people in line.
Many of the shelves were empty of product for overpriced Japanese stuff, much of which could be picked up cheaper at Dollarama or Chinese stores.

There is simply so much money in this town that those with cash don’t care about the debts and problems of those without and there will always be money for speculation on things like real estate. Sad!

#62 Raging Ranter on 12.16.18 at 8:11 pm

Neither Trudeau nor Trump gets to decide when the next recession will start. Recessions don’t care who is up for re-election.

#63 TurnerNation on 12.16.18 at 8:17 pm

#32 Crazyfox now I know you are from the same background as mine (waspish) are no one else would engage in such guilt based virtue signaling.
Please now take a vow of poverty for the climate and send your cash to me.
Careful don’t turn your heat up this winter you might anger the Climate Gods.

Right now your thesis is being bought and sold for profits on exchanges like the CME. Weather futures. They’ve been around for two decades in advance of this. Match game and set.

#64 Godth on 12.16.18 at 8:18 pm

#33 Crazyfox
you forgot global dimming aka aerosol masking effect.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2012/may/11/global-dimming-pollution
we have changed the atmosphere, the last time there was 410ppm co2 was the mid-pliocene 3 million years ago. the temp. was 2.5 – 4 degrees warmer and the oceans 20-25 meters higher. as there’s a ten yr. lag in the warming effect of co2 we’re still only seeing warming from 390 ppm atm. the arctic blue ocean event (boe) is scheduled for 2022-3 if the current trend continues. then there’s biodiversity loss, every ocean will be completely fished out by 2048 (likely sooner as science is conservative). we’ve cooked our goose this time. we should be shutting down nuclear facilities and cleaning up the waste post haste.
…and then there’s debt, as we can’t do basic economics anymore in our hubris. On Contact: The history of debt forgiveness (michael hudson) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AdPukQ96vEA
the australian housing market is crashing https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=usfe9Ue6H90
stories coming out of the usa market aren’t good either. aren’t the danes the most indebted consumers on the planet? how about the dutch? etc., etc.
a global cheap credit event that’s blown bubbles. pop.
http://doomfordummies.blogspot.com/

#65 Dominion Minion on 12.16.18 at 8:22 pm

BREAKING: Canada and China declare temporary truce while The Sound Of Music is on tonight.

#66 Two Good Ones on 12.16.18 at 8:23 pm

#56 Dolce Vita – The Russian and Ukrainian salads are the best made in Poland. They come in a large glass bottle and are not expensive. Once tried you will always buy more, because its filled with nutritional value and a variety of healthy items.

#67 VanIsleStyle on 12.16.18 at 8:25 pm

Crazyfox – you worry too much. Erupting volcanoes as you say, due to polar ice sheet melting will cause a significant cooling trend to the earth’s atmosphere… ie an effective negative feedback mechanism to global warming. The atmosphere, due to higher temps from global warming, will also absorb and hold significantly more amounts of water vapor and sea levels may actually drop… ie another effective negative feedback mechanism.

#68 AK on 12.16.18 at 8:26 pm

#55 Tony on 12.16.18 at 7:40 pm
Re: #20 Crazyfox on 12.16.18 at 5:23 pm
“I hope you’re right about Trump as Hillary was supposed to be president and Trump paid off everybody leading up to the election. Trump will slip-up and get impeached. He thinks he’s paid off everyone but he hasn’t. The under/over or betting line is 50/50 in England and Europe.”
====================================

You guys are watching too much CNN…

Trump will be in office another 6 years.

#69 Shawn Allen on 12.16.18 at 8:31 pm

Statistics Canada errors in estimating jobs

Dolce Vita at 39 calculated:

Unadjusted = 48,900
Seasonally adjusted = 94,100
Trend-cycle = 22,000

****************************

That seems very weird. I would have thought November would be seasonally higher employment than October due to Christmas retail jobs. So I would have expected the unadjusted job growth to be definitely higher than the seasonally adjusted gain. But Dolce Vita calculates it the other way.

In quite a few years of looking at the monthly jobs release I don’t recall ever seeing the trend-cycle even mentioned.

I tend to assume Stats Can does its best and are honest. But I also have seen the wild swings and believe they should do a far better job of explaining the plus or minus estimation error in these things.

How can we talk about job creation to the nearest 1000 when the statistical sampling error is I believe around 28,000?

And that is just the error in their sample is a good random sample. But random samples are very hard to get. So the true error has to be larger.

Why can’t they simply use things like the number of people paying into CPP each month or EI or income tax? They would then have to estimate the self-employed but the main body of jobs could be tracked far better?

#70 acdel on 12.16.18 at 8:39 pm

Felix,

I do feel for you for your pathetic constant posts on how you feel that your feline base is superior to us dawgs.
The current pic demonstrates what risk takers we are and what fun we like to have. :)

Ok, actually this is one of the braver one’s but I am still not convinced.

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca/videos/gallery/cat-toboggans-down-a-hill-what-more-do-you-need/2312993038001/5979611829001/most_popular

#71 renter in Surrey on 12.16.18 at 8:44 pm

RE: #53 S.Bby

Lots of houses in Surrey and east for $700 – $800 K. Not sure what your agenda is but you are wrong.

———————————————————————————————-

do you mean demolition projects like this?

https://www.zolo.ca/surrey-real-estate/12718-113b-avenue

https://www.zolo.ca/surrey-real-estate/13925-116-avenue

https://www.zolo.ca/surrey-real-estate/12751-112a-avenue

#72 akashic record on 12.16.18 at 8:51 pm

#craxyfox

I hope someone pays you for the crazy amount of work you do here, at wide range of topics that fills the gap between the evil Russian’s cold war and if that doesn’t kill us, the global warming, that will for sure.

The survival of the universe depends on your copy/paste and deep linking.

Please cont.

#73 Kelly on 12.16.18 at 8:51 pm

“It all means rate hikes will be with us for a while yet, but in moderation. One this week for the Fed, maybe two more next year in the US, while Canada sees one increase in the spring and another in the fall. But no cuts. Not until it’s truly warranted. And don’t wish for that.”
Garth
_______________

This month will be the Fed’s last increase.
The market swoon will put fear into the heart of Poloz.
NO INCREASES on either side of the border in 2019.

Faltering markets will give way to lower rates later in 2019 and the restart of QE5.

The above is clear to those that study the market.
The operative approach is delay any hint of a recession as long as possible.

#74 Godth on 12.16.18 at 8:52 pm

#60 acdel
trees are, in fact, dying all over the planet.
https://grist.org/article/the-last-ditch-effort-to-save-the-worlds-forests-from-climate-change/
next you’ll tell us the coral reefs are thriving too.
#67 VanIsleStyle
yeah, nothing to worry about.
understanding climate change https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCo-r5Q-5TWB43oLI8eZ6euA/videos

#75 Smoking Man on 12.16.18 at 9:20 pm

Wow the French yellow coats is catching on.

Nice job today deplorabless from Alberta and Brussels. People are #woke. #Stormiscomming.

40 years of globilst back room deals, slowly brainwash everyone to think 300sqft condos are cool and cruising down the street with a V8 is bad..The kids support a one world govt.

I’m calling over. A big fight is comming. They will lose. T2 has no clue on what’s about to happen in Canada. This revolution is world wide and growing like a California wild fire.

#WWG1WGA

#76 Can You Dig It? on 12.16.18 at 9:24 pm

Hi Garth. I am 35, my spouse is 37. Combined we have $2.2 million in savings. Where should we invest?

Thank you,
Smart Money

#77 SCD on 12.16.18 at 9:29 pm

Jamie, I say buy a house, my husband and I did over 10 years ago in Victoria and have never been sorry. It is our home and we look back at what we paid and think it was a no brainer. When needed we rented out rooms. No problem. Don’t spend stupid money for what you don’t need. Be sensible with your choice. Best of luck!

#78 Smoking Man on 12.16.18 at 9:37 pm

#63 TurnerNation on 12.16.18 at 8:17 pm

#32 Crazyfox now I know you are from the same background as mine (waspish) are no one else would engage in such guilt based virtue signaling.
Please now take a vow of poverty for the climate and send your cash to me.
Careful don’t turn your heat up this winter you might anger the Climate Gods.

Right now your thesis is being bought and sold for profits on exchanges like the CME. Weather futures. They’ve been around for two decades in advance of this. Match game and set.
……

Looks like a climate troll. Man these loonatics can’t open there eyes and see the sea is at the same level it was 100 years ago. I hope in the next life I’m a time share salesmen and these folks are walking toward me. $$$$$$$

#79 not 1st on 12.16.18 at 9:42 pm

Yeah crazy fox there is no climate change. You fell for the soros fraud hook line and sinker. Why do Leo and Saint Suzuki live on the water if the seas are going to rise 100 ft or whatever. Pfft.

CO2 was 10 times higher in the past before humans were around. It happened many times. Earth still here.

#80 AB Boxster on 12.16.18 at 9:56 pm

GF – Ever the optimists about US Markets and Canada

I like this guy:
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/oil-prices-have-bottomed-gateway-s-gramatovich~1564632

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/morneau-and-trudeau-aren-t-qualified-to-run-a-lemonade-stand-tim-gramatovich~1402927

His comments on the state of Canada at around 3:40 of the first clip are interesting.

Anyone who says that Trudeau and Morneau are not qualified to run a lemonade stand, much less a country, makes sense to me.
These fools have done so much harm to the Canadian economy.

Sure the fed wants to raise rates, but at the expense of forcing the markets into a bear. Or in Canada, forcing a recession due to housing crash.

Remember there ain’t no energy industry left to keep the domestic engine moving if housing and real estate puke.

#81 Blacksheep on 12.16.18 at 9:59 pm

Crazyfox,

“Climate change in B.C.: Here’s how 2050 could look”

This promotional (RE cartel financed) / CBC Video is selling to all parties thinking about buying Van RE, telling how awesome natural climate change is going to be for Vancouver.

Warmer, longer summers, with less rain?
Increased length in growing seasons?
10 % more winter rain, with zero snow?
Weather like San Diego?

Could be worse, right?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/climate-change-in-b-c-here-s-how-2050-could-look-1.4146580

#82 Deplorable Dude on 12.16.18 at 10:02 pm

#Crazyfox

They are lying to you…

See for yourself…..altering historical data, or just plain ignoring it when it’s inconvient….and in some cases literally making it up.

https://realclimatescience.com/global-temperature-record-is-a-smoking-gun-of-collusion-and-fraud/

#83 domain on 12.16.18 at 10:06 pm

So the fed raises rates because the economy is strong and they want to reach neutral interest, which is a sign of strength and the markets like it.

Then the fed gets dovish, holds or lowers rates (presumably due to the porridge being just right, or for fear the economy is slipping, then the market likes it?

I think if the fed gets dovish, the market will receive it poorly, and if that doesn’t prick the bubble, it will be the slowdown in credit growth, the slowdown in the growth of the broad money supply TMS-2, or the fed balance sheet unwind hitting high gear. That has all been happening for over a year now, so its baked into the cake already.

That doesn’t even include the slowdown in money supply growth in the ECB, China, and Japan. All of the central bank actions that provided the fuel for the hot air balloon in equities are decelerating. People ought to be looking for a nice place to land as opposed to another mountain to climb.

#84 Shawn Allen on 12.16.18 at 10:08 pm

Are We All equal?

Crazy Fox above at 48 said: Until we realize that we are all equals regardless of our differences, …

********************************
Agreed that inequality causes a lot of mental ainst to say the least.

All humans have great value but in life I don’t think everyone is equal.

I do think the quest to do better than our peers usually decreases as we get to retirement age. I think probably older people become more empathetic as it becomes clear that health problems can affect anyone and older people may realise that accomplishments in life may largely come from effort and ability but there is a large amount of random luck as well including, most importantly, circumstances of our birth families. Also some people are hugely accomplished and valued in ways that do not lead to wealth.

In any case, Death is the great equalizer. Older people tend to realize that.

#85 Crazyfox on 12.16.18 at 10:16 pm

To all who comment on my own comments or efforts with criticisms that aren’t constructive, don’t flatter yourselves, its a waste of everyone’s time.

No one is going to outrun the threat of climate change unless they die within the next decade, two max. Go ahead… watch the lectures and then tell me I’m wrong and good luck with that. Did I stutter? Watch the lectures!!! Then you can come argue and insult if its still your thing.

#86 Oh Canada on 12.16.18 at 10:17 pm

There was a time the men and women in parliament dressed well and spoke with strength and conviction in Canada. We were strong, brave, and building a country with manufacturing, farming, construction, and technological innovation. There was a time we could travel the world receiving respect and admiration. We had a navy, air force, and army second to none. What went wrong, was the circus came to town with clowns and spoiled it all for us. Now we have become the laughing stock of the world, and we are circling the drain because of idiots on stage.

#87 Godth on 12.16.18 at 10:21 pm

#78 Smoking Man
you should go into the insurance business.
https://www.wsj.com/graphics/climate-change-forcing-insurance-industry-recalculate/
you could also inform people from louisiana to alaska that they don’t need to relocate as what is happening isn’t happening according to you. https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/
#79 not 1st
what are you going to eat? that will concern you before sea level rise. 2018 was a disaster for farmers from europe to australia.
https://news.un.org/en/story/2018/03/1005012

#88 NoName on 12.16.18 at 10:26 pm

#47 Smoking Man on 12.16.18 at 1:14 am

Fear, its a crippling disposition.

No fear no gain. It’s an addiction for me. Can’t get enough of it. And it always works out.

I’m looking at a dwarf can’t tell if he’s Asian or Russian. Those wired eyes that are attached to people down syndrome.

Dude is killing with the ladies. They say his dead folks left him a billion . I’m thinking it’s bull shit. He’s got moves. Charged me 5 bucks for taking his photo.

—-

Hey smocking man after reading your post yesterday got me pondering, i have this noname junior that also has a downs but he seems to be ok in making a pictures.

Considering that if and when i go off, he will be left with next to nothing, i was thinking selling those drawings he makes. He seems to like that scary stuf from five nights at fredys, so often he drows a characters from game. Now iam wondering, what does you crystal bwel/ucc says, can he get 5 buks each, or we go with 2for1 deal, or it would be copywringt infringement?

Here are drawings in question.
https://imgur.com/a/ZgqM5Ig

in desperate need of wisdom
NN

#89 Fish on 12.16.18 at 10:34 pm

A Plan for the People
2018 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review
Background Papers

https://www.fin.gov.on.ca/fallstatement/2018/contents.html

Ontario’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook in Brief

https://www.fin.gov.on.ca/fallstatement/2018/outlook.html

2018 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review
Ontario’s Plan for the People

https://www.fin.gov.on.ca/fallstatement/2018/

#90 acdel on 12.16.18 at 10:54 pm

#74 Godth

I respect your data as you should mine. I could post a hundred links or more stating what I have said before; as well you could probably do the same.

Let us call it even on this but nobody will argue that if one plants a tree; there is 37 million of us in Canada; close to 8 billion of us on the planet that it would not make a difference. Please Google all the communities, countries that have done so and made a huge difference.

Stop polluting waters; that is the real issue; not CO2 in the atmosphere.

#91 acdel on 12.16.18 at 11:04 pm

#81 Blacksheep

What number one coal exporters (Vancouver) to China are helping doing; just saying!! Never mind what hypocritical coast lovers are dumping into our oceans.

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45640706

#92 Shawn on 12.16.18 at 11:16 pm

No rate hikes for the FED and certainly not for the BOC in 2019.

If the FED doesn’t communicate this effectively to the market next week the mild global bear market will turn into a severe one and a recession will be all but guaranteed.

#93 Shawn on 12.16.18 at 11:19 pm

Canadian preferred shares are down 13%. Preferred shares are simply a bet on rising rates. What are they saying about interest rates in Canada going forward?

#94 acdel on 12.16.18 at 11:38 pm

#74 Godth

I forgot this link to the previous post.
https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/yes-anti-pipeline-vancouver-really-is-north-americas-largest-exporter-of-coal

Let us be civilized; stop bashing Alberta; we have made a huge contribution to Canada. Look at your own backyard (if you live long the coasts) and realize what kind of damage you people are creating and yet blame us Western Provinces ( including hypocritical tree huggers) what you dump into our oceans is much worst then what we in the Western Provinces ever have so called done helping paying your health services.

Enough already you bloody ignorant fools!

Hey, our author mentioned that he owns a tugboat (awesome), I am sure that it does not run on an alternative fuel.. Man, what a joke these people are; especially the elderly who comment on this blog that made a wonderful life and retirement on the oil and coal sectors of the pasts and expect the rest of us to live a much harder life and to there wonderful retirement. I am so sick and tired of the double standards. I am a gen-x’er that have paid my dues; these new Gen Y,Z, or whatever you want to call them drive me crazy.

Many have no respect to the past on how many have been sacrificed for there freedom; they say history always repeats itself; if so, my god are we in trouble. Most do not give a shit until the day it happens, always does!! That is why I like Smokies attitude, live life while you can!

#95 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.17.18 at 12:31 am

#76 Can You Dig It? on 12.16.18 at 9:24 pm
Hi Garth. I am 35, my spouse is 37. Combined we have $2.2 million in savings. Where should we invest?

Thank you,
Smart Money
———–
There’s a Canadian Company called BreX drilling for gold in South America.
My barber tells me they are the next Eldorado.
Buy now or be priced out forever.

#96 Smoking Man on 12.17.18 at 12:31 am

DELETED

#97 meslippery on 12.17.18 at 12:48 am

Anyone else having attitude from PC points.
Yes Garth like clipping coupons.
Wow It work great now it dose not . Anyone??

#98 Stan Brooks on 12.17.18 at 12:49 am

#16 Surfing Pikachu on 12.16.18 at 5:13 pm
“reasonable conclusion: cheaper house prices are a done deal. The real estate boom is done. Gone.”

For you blog dogs who know that Toronto is a city in Canada, apartments located at the infamous Jane & Finch San Romano Way have had price increases of 50%-80% for new tenants. Back in 2009, it used to be $1,000/mnthly for a 2-bedroom apartment located in the crime capital of Toronto, but new tenants have to pay almost $1,800-$2,000 for the same unit.

REITs have forced new tenants to pay for their own utilities for the slum lord apartments. Or maybe they are hipsters willing to pay for the world cuisine smells emanating from nearby apartments. But still costlier than a flight to Asia.

An almost 100% increase in less than 8 years.
Kathleen Wynne’s Agenda 21 policy in effect.

That is an amazing news from rich and prosperous Toronto, just made my day.

Bhahahahahahahhahahahahha.

No inflation, right, or just 1-2 % as some idiots on this blog like to repeat.

And if some would like to point out that Toronto/GTA is not Canada, it surely is 20 % of it.

And Jane and Finch is the absolute dump of the place, I would not live there even if they pay me to.

On every corner there is a payday loan shop, gives you an idea of the ‘wealth’ of the people living there.

Toronto is rapidly Detroitizing.

Cheers to the owners of 2 million dollar cardboard particle board ‘homes’ in Vaughan (with the neighborhood house 1 meter from yours), 1 million dollar ‘trendy’ glass condos that are noisy, have huge maintenance and bedrooms 6 feet by 7 feet so you can barely place a queen size bed and then there will be no space left (they call that a ‘room’) and now the 2 k per month renters of a ‘gem’ on Jane and Finch!

It gets better by the day.
Makes you wonder what lies ahead, I am sure even better things.

#99 Kilt on 12.17.18 at 1:13 am

#31 renter in Surrey

Zolo shows up a handful of nice homes under $1 million in Richmond and New West. A few months ago there was very little under 1.5. If you jump across the river to Surrey, and there are hundreds. I’m assuming SFH with 3+ bedrooms.
Nice is relative, I mean that they are not tear-downs. Pricing is becoming competitive. Smart sellers are finding comparables in the neighborhood and listing for 20 to 50k less. My neighbor has dropped his price 4 times in 4 months and still hasn’t sold. He keeps getting beat out by a similar house at a better price point or a nicer home at the same price.

Kilt.

#100 meslippery on 12.17.18 at 1:24 am

Its bit coin ???
—–??
https://outage.report/ca/pc-optimum

#101 Not be fooled on 12.17.18 at 1:33 am

I had to look at the ‘Sunshine List’ to remind myself of how egregious civil servant salaries have become. I also remember how our previous mayor and council secretly bragged that Vancouver has a cap on salaries and can produce the lowest paid tech and skilled workforce in the G7, they laughed about it when questioned.

I recently interviewed an HR consultant/expert regarding a Ph.d , band seven , director level salary hire with full OTE benefits and the average compensation in Canada is just under $140,000 $C. This is half what the candidate could expect in the US or EU, and in her expert opinion the civil service salaries compared to private sector pay in Canada are inflated by at least 100% of value. In other words our best civil servants are making double what they could fetch in private industry and far less within Canada. $180,000 for a civil servant position is outrageous.

Otherwise, yes, the current market froth is 99% unhinged puking fear. I’m reminded of the famous RNS call to “Sell Everything” . What a disaster for anyone heeding/needing that advice when mere months later the market produced the most spectacular bull run in history. I don’t remember seeing the RBS apology, did you. Can you imagine the tax hit those poor tone deaf suckers took? Wow.

At the very best of times a stock market, which is a human invention after all, is 80% perception and 20% fundamental. If the following is any indication of full freaking fear, then it might be another ‘RBS moment’

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/14/bis-report-global-stock-market-sell-off-not-an-isolated-event.html

I’m not a big balance guy, but for some it’s offering a modicum of safety, although everything is down, on balance. I prefer cash because you can pig out on the sales. The current market reaction might well be as Garth postulates, two big elections, some fanfare , and off to the races. Meanwhile, yields on dividend payers are fat and juicy, and increasing far faster than rate increases. IMHO , talk of recession is all part of a coordinated global smear job to spread fear as the losing globalist side doubles down on propaganda against an opposition victory both in Canada and the US. No question that once these elections are decided, and likely the death blow to globalism, a remarkable recovery will occur. Perception vs Reality. So, unless you think the Utility sector will go dark or that people encases will stop paying their bills, then buy buy buy value and collect these increasing divvies while waiting for an inevitable capital gain.

#102 Crazyfox on 12.17.18 at 1:47 am

#81 Blacksheep on 12.16.18 at 9:59 pm

https://climatereanalyzer.org/

If you click onto the site and onto “today’s weather map” you will see 10 links to current weather maps. Check out 500 hPa Geopot and Jetstream wind speed. (great site, use it all the time)

With me? As we lose our Arctic ice cap, we lose the temperature gradient, the air in the hPa Geopot dam height rises with expansion and with it, the Jetstream slows down rushing toward the center and the jet stream also moves up to higher latitudes overall. If you follow this site daily throughout the year, you will see that the Jetstream loses power in the summer as the temperature gradient decreases. The Jetstream going forward will continue to slow down in the years to come and as the cap melts entirely, I think, slowing down quite dramatically specifically during summer from what it is now. Jennifer Francis really does explain it quite well:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kijRsQc-wrA

What will happen to jet streams as we lose our temperature gradient and 500 hPa Geopot. height (dam) rises… this is what concerns me most as this is what I believe to be the beginning of true chaos. Not only will jet streams lose power, possibly a great deal of power in the summer and late summer, they will be more easily blocked by mountains and increases in elevation and their patterns will become more stuck. This will worsen the effects of drought and rains/floods as the temperature gradient lessens, especially in higher latitudes and that could be devastating for BC’s forests as an example. Its already happening.

This year’s second worst fire season in BC in modern history is no fluke and its only going to get worse. We are just beginning to see jet streams travel north of Greenland now in the summer and that’s not good. Its no longer if… its when we lose our arctic cap somewhere in between 5 and 10 years I should think (2022 is stuck in my mind still), the chances of prolonged heat waves over areas of permafrost and Greenland ice sheets grow dramatically and the world simply isn’t ready for what follows.

Its exactly as I’ve said earlier and is worth repeating. We’ve lost 75% of our sea ice volume in the last 40 years since keeping satellite records. That’s not fake news, that’s fact. By that trend its gone in 13 years or less, possibly as little as 5. That the IPCC would as of 2 months ago tell the world the arctic cap has a 1 in 100 year chance of summer free ice with a planet at 1.5 C above pre-industrial 20 years from now… this floors me. It will logically be gone inside a decade ad for most future late summers and summers to come.

Its not as though the IPCC is not sounding alarm bells with climate change, they are. The IPCC is saying is that if the world doesn’t reduce C02 emissions by half by 2030, catastrophe is certain but in the same breath, they are downplaying the risks of Arctic cap ice free summers. You follow? That the IPCC is avoiding describing the risk a summer free arctic ice cap poses is highly alarming all by itself! They know the risks but won’t describe the process. That, to me, is disturbing.

I’m alarmed by what I know ok, alarmed enough to share it here in detail because people need to know the risks. There’s no angle to it, no glory for being right, no fun in I told you so’s, only eyes burning out from monitor glare for reward but the risks need to be laid plain because at present, that’s not happening and we all have a right to know the risks, especially with something of this magnitude.

#103 Viorelli on 12.17.18 at 2:22 am

@#75, smoking man.
You are right, it is spreading. Even people from our better part of town are calling this globalized experiment and current governance of our country an absolute disaster. When the system benefits the top 5 % and everyone else continually loses their standard of living, things like Bastille or Russian Revolution happen. No army or police can stop them as anger grows like a tsunami. I see many angry, overextended people in debt around me. It will only grow as things get more and more expensive. But you cannot blame all the wealthy, some are trying to do business and provide jobs to others. On the other hand when corporations become parasitic and start offshoring, bring in cheap labor, and open floodgates then things need to change. Countries were formed and borders were defended, our grandparents died for a reason. Globalization erases history, identity, country’s own economy, and enslaves the humanity worldwide for the benefit of the few. There is even yellow vests happening in Israel now, no country is immune to this disease.

#104 acdel on 12.17.18 at 2:49 am

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/1500-attend-grande-prairie-pipeline-rally-1.4948616

I will be there; at least us Albertan’s, crap, I should say ALTA,SASK,MAN, and our East Coast friends and others that realize what they can do to help out. Much appreciated, thank you!

#105 KLNR on 12.17.18 at 5:59 am

#86 Oh Canada on 12.16.18 at 10:17 pm
There was a time the men and women in parliament dressed well and spoke with strength and conviction in Canada. We were strong, brave, and building a country with manufacturing, farming, construction, and technological innovation. There was a time we could travel the world receiving respect and admiration. We had a navy, air force, and army second to none. What went wrong, was the circus came to town with clowns and spoiled it all for us. Now we have become the laughing stock of the world, and we are circling the drain because of idiots on stage.
________________________________________

LOL, not another ‘back in my day” fool.
Quit blaming others for your lot in life.

#106 gmcc on 12.17.18 at 6:52 am

Just wait until we see 10 cent increase in the gas price in the new year and more taxes for illigal immigrant, then w ewill see yellow shirts by the thousands in Canada, how dare he give our land to the EU

That was scary. – Garth

#107 MF on 12.17.18 at 7:03 am

acdel on 12.16

Who exactly are these mythical Gen x and y that you are referring to?

I don’t know anyone who is anti Albertan oil. We all want the oil sands to prosper because it’s good for Canada. Like I said to the other Albertan on here ranting this BS, the only people against Alberta or Albertan oil are the ones in your heads.

And lol at blaming later generations for any of the current problems. Who caused 2008? It was the boomers who pooped the bed from the post ww2 boom and gave us 2008 and the debt ZiRP incompetent policy we are stuck with in its wake.

MF

#108 Frank The Tank on 12.17.18 at 7:06 am

Only one reply by Garth in this entire comment section. Thus I have only read a total of one post in this entire comment section.

Did I miss anything?

Aw, so sweet. – Garth

#109 MF on 12.17.18 at 7:14 am

103 Viorelli on 12.17.18 at

Yeah umm pretty sure that’s what occupy Wall Street was about 8 years ago.

Were you on the sidelines disparaging those dumb millennials marching against the evil corporations??

Is it only now that your portfolio takes a hit that you are angry?

Globalization has positives and negatives like everything else in life. What exactly are these people protesting against? How about be like the rest of us and just deal with high housing costs, increase competition in the labour market, high educational costs/requirements, and so on by adapting?

As with all these so called protests, they are being/will be hijacked by low life anarchists with nothing to lose while the rest of us try to succceed against the odds at work behind the scenes.

MF

#110 SPY on 12.17.18 at 7:37 am

2400 is your buy target

You’re welcome

(Anyone that thinks the Central Banks can continue to raise rates ? Run . Like the wind . Total disconnect)

#111 Stan Brook's Psychiatrist on 12.17.18 at 7:41 am

#98 Stan Brooks

“Cheers to the owners of 2 million dollar cardboard particle board ‘homes’ in Vaughan (with the neighborhood house 1 meter from yours), 1 million dollar ‘trendy’ glass condos that are noisy, have huge maintenance and bedrooms 6 feet by 7 feet so you can barely place a queen size bed and then there will be no space left (they call that a ‘room’) and now the 2 k per month renters of a ‘gem’ on Jane and Finch!”

It must be a Christmas miracle but Stanley has most of it right. I can’t believe what the good folks of Toronto (ok he has it wrong on calling the good folks of Toronto derogatory names but it is Stanley after all…) are paying to have a home in the northern burbs where you can pass cooking supplies from your kitchen window to your neighbour’s window without leaving your kitchen… The condo madness is reaching epic proportions. I went to see a couple of open houses with a relative a few weeks ago and couldn’t believe what 700k got you. Total garbage, moulding windows and a bedroom that is smaller than my master bedroom closet…. As for Stanley’s Jane and Finch comments, he is spot on. Now here is the question Stan, you lived in Toronto at some point didn’t you?

#112 Mr Pragmatic on 12.17.18 at 7:47 am

pay your taxes on 12.16.18 at 7:11 pm
Staring to sound like a real estate agent for the stock market. They go down too and everyone I know is in the red an average of 5 percent. So now we’ve got two of the last 5 years as zero or worse yet the mythical “6.5 to 7%” average is touted on a regular basis.

Nothing rises in a linear manner so why not just spit out the truth? The year started out great and is headed for a crappy end. Maybe next year it will go up 15% and you’ll make your losses back. Maybe “brain dead GICs at 3 % were the best choice for these volatile times.

Hedge fund guys who manage billions are having their heads handed to them. Their clients would love to have lost only 5 percent so there’s no shame in a balanced portfolio taking a beating.

The year has been a bust, but the losses for a B&D portfolio are minor. It did what it was designed to do – reduce volatility. The best part is the 20% gained over the last three years is largely intact. Just relax. – Garth
——-

So 20% gross over 4 years less than 5% compounded annually. Seems hardly worth the risk and sleepless nights when 3 year GIC’s are paying over 3% easily.

That’s 20% over three years, and paid as tax-reduced dividends and capital gains, as opposed to fully-taxed interest. In addition, GICs were not at 3% in 2016. If you’re too insecure to invest, just don’t. – Garth

#113 jess on 12.17.18 at 8:04 am

magnitsky money trail
From :occrp
The Wayward Millions of Lithuania’s Runaway Banker
https://www.occrp.org/en/28-ccwatch/cc-watch-indepth/9036-the-wayward-millions-of-lithuania-s-runaway-banker

Lithuania cited “harmful actions” by Ukio Bankas’ shareholders as the principal reasons for intervening. Authorities feared that the financial institution, already on the brink of collapse, was being systematically stripped of assets by the people running it.
Daniliskes is the small patch of land outside Vilnius that was supposed to be transformed into a modern residential area in 2008. According to leaked documents prepared by Lithuanian law enforcement, Ukio Bank lent €10.3 million (15.62 million $) for the plan to a Lithuanian company called Tristanas, owned by Ilja Jaroslavskis, a long-time associate of various Romanov-related companies.But within days, Tristanas wired the money to England. The company never laid a single brick in Daniliskes. Instead, it went into liquidation a few years later.This is where the Paradise Papers come in.
================
Ukio Bankas hit the headlines again after the Panama Papers investigation was published in 2016. Romanov’s bank appeared to be one of the financial institutions used for the benefit of Sergei Roldugin — a close friend of Russian President Vladimir Putin — who appears to have amassed impressive wealth without any detailed explanation.

Lithuanian law enforcement confirmed that the Panama Papers data was accurate and Roldugin’s offshore companies used banking services provided by Ukio. Kestutis Jucevicius, then the director of Lithuania’s Financial Crime Investigation Service, said that Roldugin-related operations have indications of money laundering. However, he said, Lithuanian law enforcement can’t do much about it, since the money swiftly left the country’s jurisdiction.
“His Lithuanian bank, Ukio Bankas, surfaced in several money laundering investigations, including allegations that it handled some of the Russian money stolen in a scandal uncovered by the late Sergei Magnitsky. Ukio became infamous in 2013, when Lithuania’s Central Bank revoked its license and took it over. A criminal case was launched into alleged embezzlement, and Romanov departed Lithuania for Russia, where he has been granted asylum.
https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/uk-world-news/fugitive-former-hearts-tycoon-vladimir-9579752

https://www.delfi.lt/verslas/verslas/prokurorai-tiria-galima-33-6-mln-lt-isplovima-ukio-banke.d?id=60489061
https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/former-hearts-owner-vladimir-romanov-13530163

“The FBI has obtained secret wiretaps collected by Spanish police of conversations involving Alexander Torshin, a deputy governor of Russia’s Central Bank who has forged close ties with U.S. lawmakers and the National Rifle Association, that led to a meeting with Donald Trump Jr. during the gun lobby’s annual convention in Louisville, Ky., in May 2016, a top Spanish prosecutor said Friday.

“The comments by [Spanish anti-corruption prosecutor] Grinda were the first clear sign that the FBI may be investigating Torshin, possibly as a part of special counsel Robert Mueller’s probe into Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. Torshin — a close political ally of Vladimir Putin — had multiple contacts with conservative activists in the United States during the election, seeking to set up a summit between the Russian president and then candidate Trump. Although the summit never transpired, Torshin did meet briefly with the president’s son at a private dinner in Louisville during the May 2016 annual convention of the NRA. A member of the NRA since 2012, Torshin has been a regular attendee of the group’s conventions in recent years and hosted senior members of the group in Moscow.”

#114 NoName on 12.17.18 at 8:11 am

#102 Crazyfox on 12.17.18 at 1:47 am

Ok fox, get to the point, stop posting links, tell us in your own words what population of canada should do to stop this co2/climate change/global warming/pollution madness.

Make a list of 5 points so everyone can see, and make sure that list is scalable and modular for up and down adjustment, if it work here it will work everywhere, especially in countries that pollute relise the most of co2. If it saves me any money ill do it.

While you are at it calculate for us as accurate as possible total impact on world green house gases of your 5 suggestions.

Plz do that in a way so unwashed masses like me can understand.

#115 Caledondave on 12.17.18 at 8:12 am

Crazyfox. …Soyent Green is people.

T2 legalized pot because he knows that the world is beyond repair and he wants a happy and stoned populace here while we are being economically invaded by the Chinese and Arabs. The cost of 1 B1 bomber is about 1 billion dollars. The Chinese figure it iseems easier to buy 1000 homes for the cost of one bomber, plus there is no devastation.

Ironically the Arabs live almost at sea level and they are selling the product which causes SLR. Soon the Arabs will be buying our land too and we will be too stoned to do anything.

I burn as much fossil fuels as humanly possible by heating my 4500 square foot bungalow. Buy the most inefficient types of homes so that we can all get to the precipice faster. I bought 1,000,000 acres of land which is currently 35 feet above sea level. With a 10 meter SLR, I can sell it as ocean front!

#116 Frank The Tank on 12.17.18 at 8:16 am

That’s 20% over three years, and paid as tax-reduced dividends and capital gains, as opposed to fully-taxed interest. In addition, GICs were not at 3% in 2016. If you’re too insecure to invest, just don’t. – Garth

——————————————–

And now I have read TWO posts.

B&D in TFSA is a godsend.

#117 jess on 12.17.18 at 8:22 am

neither bricks nor online

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/asos-share-price-falls-profit-warning-high-street-online-retailer-sales-a8686671.html

lost generation
https://www.independent.co.uk/aidsfree/aidsfree-ukraine-kiev-revolution-hiv-children-testing-treatment-sex-drugs-streetpower-a8677316.htmlhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LwRPXmcggdY

National deficit increases by £12bn as watchdog rules student loans count as government spending

‘The student loans system is a fiscal illusion which flatters the government’s record,’ says Labour
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/education/education-news/student-loans-university-education-tuition-maintenance-grants-deficit-national-debt-a8686556.html

#118 TurnerNation on 12.17.18 at 8:35 am

#85 Crazyfox I’ll trust science a bit more when they finally look into why:
– Only kids from my background are stricken with Autism in record numbers now. Not a peep. A grand mystery eh?
– Only people from my background are dying by the thousands in the War of Drugs battle of Opoids.
– Only teenagers from my background are forced into mind bending psychotrophic “Adhd” meds with listed side effects, in their most vunerable growth years. (Leading to …point #2 above)
– And why is it only people from my background are sold this climate horror…and only from others like them (bonus points for stern British accent lecturing)

Real Science…or black magic? Killing us softly. They’ll stone you just like they said they would.

#119 Godth on 12.17.18 at 8:42 am

#90 acdel
why would i agree with you when you’re a science denier? do you really think climate science hasn’t accounted for solar cycles? you honestly believe you’re that much smarter than the scientists and that just because you say something is true it is -“not CO2 in the atmosphere.” do you know how silly you sound? the evidence and the facts don’t care about your right wing talking points and nor do the physics, or the planet care about your sentimental tripe.

#102 Crazyfox
it’s all collapsing faster and faster, as prof. al bartlett stated “The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function.”
we really should be decommissioning every nuclear reactor on the planet and trying to deal with the waste while we still can. as you say we have 10 yrs, possibly 20.
the ipcc is the inter-governmental panel on climate change, things get altered or outright nixed to fit political agendas. it’s much worse than they’ve stated. the models are incomplete and the science too conservative, now as more empirical studies pour in everything is “faster than expected”
https://orionmagazine.org/article/dark-ecology/

#120 I'm with Frank on 12.17.18 at 8:42 am

#116 Frank The Tank on 12.17.18 at 8:16 am
That’s 20% over three years, and paid as tax-reduced dividends and capital gains, as opposed to fully-taxed interest. In addition, GICs were not at 3% in 2016. If you’re too insecure to invest, just don’t. – Garth

——————————————–

And now I have read TWO posts.

B&D in TFSA is a godsend.

__________________

3 for me. This one caught my eye!

#121 TurnerNation on 12.17.18 at 8:45 am

#102 Crazyfox point taken. But tell us what caused the Bering Strait ice to melt? People used to walk over it, from Russia to Alaska. Until you can explain that…don’t sweat it. Or tax me on the thin air.

I awaiting your science..what caused all that ice to melt that time ago. TIA

#122 not 1st on 12.17.18 at 8:50 am

Crazy fox, get a grip. Its not happening. The matrix has you. Pop a red pill.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oYhCQv5tNsQ

#123 Yellow Vest Sympathizer on 12.17.18 at 9:02 am

Re#106 GMCC. Garth says “Scary”. But is it?

https://nationalpost.com/news/world/weve-had-enough-close-the-borders-anti-migrant-protesters-clash-with-belgian-police

Globalists call anyone in opposition “Scary, Facist etc” Ate the Globalists right or the People. Who are living through hellish consequence of a very scary social experiment.

History shows us the consequences of tribalism, nationalism and xenophobia. Repeatedly, it is war and death. Yellow vests may lead to brown shirts. Be careful what you support. – Garth

#124 not 1st on 12.17.18 at 9:12 am

Garth, the TSX is dead money. Resource companies and banks and both are going to be kneecapped into the future with the liberal utopia at hand. Ontario might as well just put in the NDP and kill that place for good. The debt is a runaway now.

Imagine a place with trillions upon trillions of resource wealth and stupid people and politicians ruin it.

#125 dharma bum on 12.17.18 at 9:17 am

Houses still cost a stupid amount compared to what Americans pay. – Garth
——————————————————————–

That is why the average American dude is far better off financially, in the long run, than us Canadian suckers.

The cost of housing in a multitude of great areas (beautiful, safe, thriving bedroom communities of mid-size to major US urban centres) is a fraction of what it is in comparable Canadian areas.

We continued to get financially raped in Canada, by the cost of goods, fuel, housing, and by taxation larceny.

The “free” healthcare argument (illusion) doesn’t make up for it either.

#126 TurnerNation on 12.17.18 at 9:21 am

Crazyfox your into hysteria. Tell us how forests have survived all these millenia as the climate has changed?
Crazyfox shouldn’t your vaulted GMO science (it’s to feed the world right? ) cannot alter seedlings and saplings to thrive in any changing environment?
The science is settled right. Tell us it’s progress.
Tell us the other half of the story. The technology they aren’t giving us
Only black magic spells masquerading as science.

#127 Y. Knott on 12.17.18 at 9:24 am

Crazyfox, hate to rain on your parade, but we are not losing our Arctic ice cap. It’s slightly below average at the moment – the below link has up-to-date charts, and I invite you to try your hand at the questions at the bottom of the article – the IPCC hasn’t answered any of them:

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/12/16/ten-years-ago-algore-predicted-the-north-polar-ice-cap-would-be-gone-inconveniently-its-still-there/

– For the last three years, the Springtime UofM expedition to the high Arctic has had to be cancelled because the CCG icebreaker they were to make the trip on, has been urgently needed elsewhere to break ice.

Are you familiar with the name ‘Pen Hadow’? He was a leading light of the Catlin Arctic Expedition, that was going to walk across the Arctic measuring the sea ice to prove it was all melting. The expedition ended in ignominious failure when the ground-penetrating radar they were using to measure the ice failed because they couldn’t charge its batteries, and the members couldn’t continue and had to be airlifted off the ice in atrocious weather.

Last Summer Mr. Hadow set-out to sail to the North Pole, to prove that the ice cap was gone; they made it to 8010 North, due to heavy pack ice along their intended route. A ship sailed to 8225N in 1875.

And despite Al Gore’s promise for last August, New York is not underwater; you can go there and check if you wish.

#128 Alan on 12.17.18 at 9:29 am

Very interesting article on median house prices in the US.

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/map-shows-much-costs-own-133000105.html

Now, compare to Canada – particularly GTA and GVA.

#129 Godth on 12.17.18 at 9:35 am

#114 NoName
we’re not going to do anything about it, that’s a waste of time now – it’s too late regardless.
if we could manage to get our act together the one thing we should do is decommission every nuclear reactor on the planet and deal with the spent fuel rods as best we can while we still can. civilization completely collapsing will be a nightmare but 450 reactors melting down and 1200 waste sites burning will be total annihilation.
“Second, in both Europe and the United States, prolonged heat waves have shut down or derated multiple nuclear plants simultaneously when sources of cooling water got too hot.”
https://rmi.org/fuel-hand-make-coal-nuclear-power-plants-valuable/

https://www.forbes.com/sites/amorylovins/2016/06/22/close-a-nuclear-plant-save-money-and-carbon-improve-the-grid-says-pge/#3b9904fc5093

#130 Deplorable Dude on 12.17.18 at 9:50 am

#102 Crazyfox…”We’ve lost 75% of our sea ice volume in the last 40 years since keeping satellite records. That’s not fake news, that’s fact”

So what?……sea ice levels were lower between 1930 and 1950 than they are now…..earth natural cycles…

see for yourself….

https://realclimatescience.com/one-hundred-years-of-arctic-warming-and-cooling/

#131 n1tro on 12.17.18 at 9:58 am

#114 NoName on 12.17.18 at 8:11 am
#102 Crazyfox on 12.17.18 at 1:47 am

Ok fox, get to the point, stop posting links, tell us in your own words what population of canada should do to stop this co2/climate change/global warming/pollution madness.

Make a list of 5 points so everyone can see, and make sure that list is scalable and modular for up and down adjustment, if it work here it will work everywhere, especially in countries that pollute relise the most of co2. If it saves me any money ill do it.

While you are at it calculate for us as accurate as possible total impact on world green house gases of your 5 suggestions.

Plz do that in a way so unwashed masses like me can understand.
—————————————–
Sorry to disappoint but the typical playbook of the liberal on any topic would be as follows…

1. Claim anything that aligns to their brainwashing as absolute “fact”.
2. Post links to material that plays to the narrative in question.
3. Challenge any opposition to go through copious amounts of data as if everyone can critically question flawed assumptions or methods made (honest and intentional ones) in research.
4. Discredit any sites/links that actually questions conclusions which goes against the narrative as “conspiracies”.
5. Relabel things to look like the better person (ie. Liberals are “progressive”, liberals aren’t pro “abortion” but rather pro “choice”, etc…)
6. Push the agenda that everyone should pay their “fair” share knowing their part is little to none or if the liberal is already rich, virtue signalling they would pay more if given the chance.
7. Try to BAN things they dislike while making things MANDATORY for everyone the things they like.
8. When losing an argument, label the other person as racist, misogynist, anti immigration, etc….or just start calling people with different points of views as “idiots” or “deplorables”.

Sounds like that’s the playbook for both sides. – Garth

#132 not 1st on 12.17.18 at 10:00 am

crazyfox/godth, this is direct to you.

The earths climate has thousands of variables affecting it and most of them we cannot determine or measure. Like how much CO2 and energy is radiated into space or still comes from the earths core, or the heat from underground sea vents. Did you know that CO2 is released from the tectonic plates rubbing against each other.

They cant measure these variable so they have to out guestimates in or leave them out otherwise the models never converge to a solution. So now you have introduced multiplied error into the problem.

And now to Canada. You do know that Canada has trillions of trees and a ton of fresh water lakes that sequester carbon. It also has 100 million acres of solar panels that also sequester carbon at the same time. Canada sequesters 30% more CO2 than it emits. China thanks us for our efforts.

Stop looking at your monitor and get some real life data instead of reading SJW articles.

#133 not 1st on 12.17.18 at 10:04 am

People like crazyox and godth are the reason JT sits as PM today.

Sea ice; did you know that sea ice floats above an ocean of salt water. yeah wow that’s right. Its always much more fragile than other land based ice.

If you want to talk ice you need to talk snowpack. what has been the average continental snow pack in NA and Russia Europe for the past few hundred years. Basically the same. ND hasn’t become florida yet. That snow sits for 6 months of the year and it radiates sunlight back into space.

Another little variable not accounted for in the so called modelling farce.

Deniers are quite amusing. – Garth

#134 akashic record on 12.17.18 at 10:15 am

Deniers are quite amusing. – Garth

5. Relabel things to look like the better person (ie. Liberals are “progressive”, liberals aren’t pro “abortion” but rather pro “choice”, etc…)

And here I thought I was complementing you, completing ignoring your knuckles. – Garth

#135 Where's The Money Greedeau? on 12.17.18 at 10:22 am

Re Garth: CMHC has already told us most people buying $1 million+ listings have debt ratios of 450% or more.
++++++++++++++
What I would like to know is why would a competent gov’t-regulator allow 450% DR mortgages in the first place, unless they were part of the facade of lies.
They see the numbers, what do they say between themselves, “Well, this borrower has a steady job (at a car manufacturer), let’s give him $500k on a $60k (8+1/2 CDIC’s websiteX) salary even though he’s already behind a couple CC card payments. Stupid taxpayers will cover it…
I see the credit unions are clamoring to become federal so they are only covered for $100k (CDIC) instead of $1 million (CUDIC) through their respective provincial regulators.
Do the CU’s see the writing on the wall? Are they considering the bail-ins, because I would seriously consider being a member of that CU if they were looking to become federal and a CDIC member. What’s their mortgage situation? Bottom of the barrel after the Big 6.
When is it enough? Drop rates, ensnare everyone before torpedoing the lot.
Movies have been made about this.
Listening to Greedeau this Sunday morning showed me how he is not cut out to be a leader. Talking points ad nauseum and he could not look the interviewer in the eye for more than a couple seconds at a time. LIES!!!! I am so embarrassed by our “Prime Minister”.
Looking like Venezuela to me, 1000% debt to ratio, CMHC will end up covering! Step right up. Indenture your progeny forever.
If I owned a bank, I would never lend to someone anywhere more than 50% DR.
So what will happen is there won’t be bank closures compared to what happened in the US but ALL taxpayers cover the banks thru CMHC and MY savings, bail-ins, one of the first things Greedeau did when getting into power. I call BS on CDIC, looking more like Home Capital. Just pile the suckers into the ponzi.
This BS of what can a borrower handle. Can anyone handle 450% debt ratio? Now with major inflation hitting perishables, powder keg for those on the high-wire………..

#136 Godth on 12.17.18 at 10:34 am

#133 not 1st
yes, the models are wrong – there are too many variables. the more that’s learned, the more empirical studies that are done, the worse it is. the basics have been correct for more than a century, we’ve had 40 yrs. of warnings and what did we do? business as usual and conspicuous consumption on steroids. it’s game over now.
if you want to know about sea ice you could always read a book by someone that spent decades studying it.
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/26192889-a-farewell-to-ice

#137 not 1st on 12.17.18 at 10:36 am

garth questioning science finding is not denial. Its more science.

Please refute my findings. How much heat and CO2 is released along tectonic places and the upper crust. How did you come up with such a number if its even determinable. And if the margin for earths destruction is just 1.5 deg, then how much error is in the models. Maybe we will get 0.9 deg and all will be fine.

#138 Godth on 12.17.18 at 10:44 am

#133 not 1st
you can argue with the planet all you want but you’re losing that argument, that much is plain as day.
Climate & Extreme Weather News #146 (19th-26th November 2018) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OajQS648aSM

#139 Frank The Tank on 12.17.18 at 10:53 am

My favorite anti-immigrant argument is that they take all the good jobs.

Yes … because your half-completed high school GED and penchant for drinking a 2-4 every night had you on the path to becoming a surgeon.

#140 Shawn Allen on 12.17.18 at 10:57 am

Preferred Shares say what about Interest Rates

#93 Shawn (great name and spelling!) on 12.16.18 at 11:19 pm said

“Canadian preferred shares are down 13%. Preferred shares are simply a bet on rising rates. What are they saying about interest rates in Canada going forward?”

********************************
Firstly, let’s be clear you are referring to rate reset preferred shares since regular perpetual preferred defininitely fall with higher interest rates (all else equal).

Rate reset preferred are designed to protect against rising rates. All else equal (but it never is) these should merely pretty much stand their ground and do not fall (like bonds and perpetual preferred do) as rates rise.

Rate resets will every five years reset to a contracted spread plus the five year Canada yield.

If the five year Canada yield rises this formula just protects against the market increase although on a much delayed basis depending on the timing of the next reset.

The going market spread on rate resets can change at any time. Right now it has increased pushing rate reset preferred down.

The decrease in the price of rate reset preferred is indicative of a perception of higher risk and has not much to do with movements in the five year Canada though yes there is some influence from that because the spread tends to widen at lower five years yields especially at really low 5 year Canada yields and should normally narrow (rate reset pref prices rise) at higher 5 year Canada yields but it has lately gone the other way due to risks and higher yields on competing investments like dividend stocks.

So initial fall was due to risks and competing investments. The further fall in last while due to risks plus a lower five year which tends to widen spread a bit.

In a risk-off environment, investors sell everything. People buying preferreds for capital gains are misguided, as these are best held for steady, tax-efficient dividend income. Just relax. Oversold assets eventually rebound – and meanwhile you get paid to be an owner. – Garth

#141 not 1st on 12.17.18 at 11:13 am

If you are worried about human effects on the planet, here is a surprising little fact. Most human activity on the planet is done to support more humans. Solve than little problem and em missions will drop like a rock.

Its a little rich for Garth to worry about this all when his college was just salivating over all the stuff china is going to buy one day. China running a 1000 coal plants just to keep its populations from starving and w cant wait until they all have cell phones.

Why not call carbon tax what it is then. wealth distribution. We restrict your standard of living and give it to others.

#142 Y. Knott on 12.17.18 at 11:18 am

Deniers are quite amusing. – Garth

Goodness me, Garth – trolling? SHOCKED, I tell ya! =D……….

#143 Remembrancer on 12.17.18 at 11:21 am

#131 n1tro on 12.17.18 at 9:58 am
Sounds like that’s the playbook for both sides. – Garth
————————————————————
Righto – except for #6 which you’d need to change to:

6. Push the agenda that everyone is responsible for their own situation, its never society’s responsibility and to stay ignorant though in the same breath blame “others” for taking away your opportunities if things don’t go your way or celebrate pulling yourself up as a self-made success story if they do regardless of the facts…

#144 Remembrancer on 12.17.18 at 11:29 am

#136 not 1st on 12.17.18 at 10:36 am
Maybe we will get 0.9 deg and all will be fine.
———————————————————-
Ya, sure…

https://youtu.be/rR58heUGkNA

#145 Iconoclast on 12.17.18 at 11:32 am

Crazyfox,

So we’ve been told that global warming is the cause of:
– heat waves
– cold snaps
– hurricanes
– conspicuous absence of predicted hurricanes
– rain
– lack of rain

Now the hysteria is amped up to include earthquakes and volcanoes. And also, no doubt, the lack of earthquakes and volcanoes.

I don’t buy the hysteria.

But importantly, even if the hysteria is correct, we are also told it is much too late to head off most of this dramatic change. Everybody in Canada could live in a cold cave and cycle year round and it won’t change a damn thing.

So, we will have to adapt to it. 100 years is plenty of time to adapt.

Much of North America was covered in over a mile of ice as recently as 10000 years ago. This is a blink of an eye in geological terms, but thousands of human lifetimes. We can deal if the glaciers return.

One Krakatoa-sized volcano can change the climate more than a century’s worth of C02 could do, and it would happen in a single season. That would be harder, much harder to deal with.

One “Carrington Event”-level solar storm could destroy modern civilization overnight. Humanity would survive, probably, but at 10% of our current population.

Building resilience into our critical infrastructure is what we should be working toward.

#146 TurnerNation on 12.17.18 at 11:45 am

The climate brownshirts have arrived. Pay your bribe to the climate high priests or lose your right of assembly. Scary scary times of tyranny.
These local priests will use this money to perform magic and fix the earth. Dont ask how…just believe your money will heal and miracles.

Exactly how will local party Officials change the climate? What if they change it too far..and cause ruin. Will more money offerings fix that too? The TV Preacher play book.

https://business.financialpost.com/commodities/energy/cibc-cuts-energy-program-after-whistler-mayor-irks-producers

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce scrapped the energy portion of its annual investor conference in Whistler next month after requests by the resort town’s mayor for a major oil producer to help pay for the cost of climate change snowballed into a retreat by other energy firms.

#147 Mortgage Attack on 12.17.18 at 11:49 am

Q-Pensions. Is it good to be mandatory enrolled into the work pension plan (I’m not sure if its defined benefits) its called the DBplus CAAT. I don’t know how to evaluate the level of funding and/or payout – their marketing materials say they are 118% overfunded, but you’ll also have to be vested and contributing at least my understanding up to a certain age before you can even consider getting your cash out.

#148 Figure it Out on 12.17.18 at 11:54 am

“In a risk-off environment, investors sell everything.”

To whom do they sell it? Central banks? Martians?

Smarter investors. – Garth

#149 Godth on 12.17.18 at 12:32 pm

it’s nice to know that some things never change.
To ravage, to slaughter, to usurp under false titles, they call empire; and where they make a desert, they call it peace. Tacitus
https://oi.uchicago.edu/gallery/archaeological-site-photographs-mesopotamia-uruk#uruk17.png

have a great extinction!

#150 Crazfox on 12.17.18 at 12:44 pm

#114 NoName on 12.17.18 at 8:11 am

Ok, I’ll bite. Its a continuation of my #102. This summer when BC was blazing away and the air was filled with smoke and people with bad lungs had to stay indoors for like a month because the atmosphere was in a Chinese mood, I’m looking at the weather report seeing their near province wide low pressure system come up to BC and was relieved.

The young weathergirl regretted to inform that the low pressure system doesn’t have enough power to cross the mountains. Jet stream was too weak with a high pressure system over the province too entrenched, she said, with a sad face. I went on climate reanalyzer and sure enough, the low pressure system that would have been sure to bring rain for most of the province hit the higher elevations off the coast and went north/south instead of east/west, stalled and rained out mostly over the ocean. A similar system would have had the power to cross higher elevations 20 years ago or even a month sooner. Not so, with today’s weakened summer jet streams.

I’ve been using this site for a few years now:

http://www.climateanalyzer.org

What I love about it is how, with science, it reveals real time positive/negative Arctic oscillations which are the precursors (a few months ahead) to El Nino’s and La Nina’s (and them too). The trends to rainfall on world maps with these cycles are well known and you can see it on the maps. La Nina brings drought to North America and above normal rainfall to Asia (low crop yields, low prices, bust) while El Nino brings rains to North America and drought to Asia (high yields, high prices, boom), all easily seen on the precipitation map on reanalyzer.

Follow this map daily, and you can predict world wide agricultural commodity trends with ease. Oh, I could explain what AO’s are and how they influence weather cycles and how to spot them if I was asked to with links and such, try to educate, but since I’ve been asked not to use links or science etc. I won’t other except for just one and simply say that its more easy to cash in on the knowledge than most know.

The fertilizer industry reacts to AO’s and El Nino/La Nina events by ramping up fertilizer prices ahead of time as they have a 4 month lead time on predicting El Nino events with A0’s. Nitrogen has been trending up in anticipation of demand and profits since early fall. Machinery dealers are forced to be more reactionary to boom and bust cycles but the higher ups know what’s driving the high’s and lows and what is coming as do certain farmers like myself who have a better idea when to sell their crops or buy machinery etc. . Lots of other farmers still don’t.

Investors can cash in too, sure. Look at the 10 year chart for AGT foods trading in Toronto who’s profits are highly sensitive to pulse crops (peas, lentils) by volume and price and see how that matches El Nino La Nina’s and what kind of $ is involved with predicting such events ahead of time. Its no small wonder why AGT wants to go private with an El Nino building as we speak. See, one can use science to make or save $$$ and no one complains with that right? Exploit an angle, bully for us.

Ah, but when the science tells us something we don’t want to hear! Shoot that messenger quick, he talks to much. Run down, put down, blah blah blah, I can only imagine the volume of nutter comments Garth has to wade through each and every day from those who think (if one can call it that) instead of know. I don’t say it enough… Garth, “thankyou” for what you do.

So I look at climate analyzer and I watch the temperature variations on Hudson Bay as the ice melts there and in 2 weeks atmospheric temps go from 2 degrees to 10 degrees as water absorbs heat in sunny skies, its quick.

In the summers, don’t take my word for it, use climate analyzer, you don’t need news stories full of uneducated opinions washing the masses, you can all see climate effects on weather for yourselves, in the summers (end of June to end of August) as 24 hr light hits, the entire arctic cap is plus 2… plus 4 degrees C and the melt is on (50 years ago btw it stayed below zero). Without the ice there? I would think in 2 weeks depending on cloud cover or lack thereof, there is potential for plus 10… plus 12 degrees in open water at end of summer as those surface waters warm up. When this happens, and it will, expect drama.

The 2 meter atmospheric temperatures that we see over ice in summer for 60 days or so now at 2 and 4 degrees will blend into 10 and 12 degrees toward the last 2 weeks of 24 hr summer light routinely with open water (best guess for this, inside of 20 years) and when it happens, our winters will be significantly shorter (going on 2 weeks shorter I would think, 10 to 15 years from now and growing with ice totally gone in summer) than they are today and jet streams will be substantially weaker than they are now during summer as the 500hPa Geopot height rises significantly and these warmer atmospheric changes will have profound effects on the rest of the planet and be irreversible.

Its not a big leap from there to imagine what these changes will do to the North’s frozen permafrost as well as heat wave potential on Greenland’s ice sheets 10 to 20 years from now.

If some of you want to argue black is white, and blue is orange, go ahead, fill your boots. But! It doesn’t change the fact that since we’ve had reliable Satellite data, we’ve lost 75% of our arctic sea ice cap volume in the last 40 years. By this logic, it doesn’t take a registered genius to see arctic ice gone between 4 and 10 years from now at end of summer. These are my best guess outliers, I really hope I’m wrong, I wish it was as simple as a personal intellectual pissing contest gone bad for your sakes but… I’m alarmed.

Its not just me saying be alarmed, ok, I’m not reinventing the wheel here. The rest of us should be alarmed if we had any sense and not panic, that won’t help but Garth mentioned a Green tech fund a while back, these are great ideas. Warm up to the idea of investing in green tech instead of oil. Leave a smaller carbon footprint, we’ll feel better about ourselves. Buy an electric car for the cities or a hybrid if we can. Walk more. Eat less meat. But whatever we do, don’t deny the obvious. There are all kinds of examples of people who deny reality pilled out in the nut ward, its not working out well for them. Like so with CC, it won’t work out so well for us either.

#151 Dogman01 on 12.17.18 at 1:03 pm

#4 Turner Nation on 12.16.18 at 3:45 pm

I must admit the trends you identify seem present to me.
Anytime I put on CBC Radio, Web or TV News; any and most items are looped back to Climate Change, immigration, or a small niche cultural group interest.

But locally what I really see are infrastructure problems , bad roads…like really bad. Transit projects that will take more then a decade and were needed three years ago. More taxes and a general decline of the standard of living.
Now I get progress, Netflix I better then Blockbuster. But where is all the money going for taxes? Not Defense;

I would like to see some stats on Per Capita GDP index to inflation and how that that is distributed.
Is our society getting better for everyone or is just getting bigger but worse per individual, or is it all flowing to the top?

Perhaps the Chart people can do a graphic on that?
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/

#152 Dogman01 on 12.17.18 at 1:16 pm

145 TurnerNation on 12.17.18 at 11:45 am

“The climate brownshirts have arrived”

“Climate Change” seems a perfect Orwellian construct. It can be used for so many agendas.

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/rex-murphy-whats-in-a-name-with-climate-change-a-lot-of-reckless-misuse

#153 Ima on 12.17.18 at 1:25 pm

What thinks you Garth? Gundlach is a pretty smart investor.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/17/gundlach-says-passive-investing-has-reached-mania-status.html

A bond guy recommending bond funds. Wow. Who knew? – Garth

#154 Godth on 12.17.18 at 1:58 pm

#149 Crazfox
we’ve known since 1972 what was in store, what did we do? expect more of that.
https://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/2011/06/limits-to-growth-revisited.html
we’re going in completely the wrong direction and many of your solutions are more of the same or simply aren’t realistic. Vaclav Smil – Drivers of environmental change: focus on energy transitions
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nJxmlNyu4sE&t=3596s
emissions are up 60% since 1990. people want to believe what they want to believe, facts be damned.
despite what economists like to pretend we aren’t a rational species. we’re emotional, highly social, hyper predatory story telling apes that are hardwired with subjective biases. we’re already off the cliff, between climate change and the sixth mass extinction…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ev7e9sfWIJo

#155 NoName on 12.17.18 at 2:03 pm

Who benefits the most from not having north pole, definitely not Santa Claus and elfs, their toys factory will “soon enough” go underwater.

Article from 2010
http://www.universityworldnews.com/article.php?story=20100528190101228

And this while were are planning carbon tax, so save north pole and toy factory, someone else is working overtime and spewing as much as tbey can of co2 in to atmosphere, because its good for business with added benefit of new lot shorter shipping route and toy oligopoly when santa and elfs go under.
Sounds like good conspiracy theory but fact is that smarter people than me are doind cost benefits analysis as i type this…

https://services-webdav.cbs.dk/doc/CBS.dk/Arctic%20Shipping%20-%20Commercial%20Opportunities%20and%20Challenges.pdf

#156 bdwy sktrn on 12.17.18 at 2:10 pm

i NEVER skip over most all of the comments but ..a rehash of co2 nuttiness while the stock market PLUNGES???

godth and the other nutbar are BRAINWASHED to the max. not worthy of a reply.

another 2% daily drop seems to be on the way.

selling it all on sept 06 seemed early, but that changed quick. being 100% cash, even weak loonies, o yeah.

took a small nibble of costco yesterday (a little early in hindsight)

but look at this market dive. wow.

US markets are down 11% from the peak. Every single time we have a correction (the average is one per year) I hear this wailing. Tedious. It always ends the same way. History shows repeatedly people who become emotional about their investments make bad decisions. – Garth

#157 NoName on 12.17.18 at 2:12 pm

And bonus videos, lets genetically modifi humans so they can breathe more co2.

https://youtu.be/3XHHkKcpt8E

Ice age is coming.
https://youtu.be/L_861us8D9M

#158 not 1st on 12.17.18 at 2:33 pm

Crazy fox, I farm too. Were you around in the 80s. Ask an old timer and they will ask if you were around in the 60s. The cycles have been repeated before and they always break. Couple yrs of fires is nothing to worry about.

if you are looking to do something about CO2 forget the taxes and the IPCC hacks. Go plant your land back to a grove of trees. A single tree scrubs out a lot of CO2. In fact, they can pay all farmers to return land to trees. Who needs food for our kids when the seas are going to sweep them away in 12 short years.

#159 jess on 12.17.18 at 2:37 pm

“Global heating is technically more correct because we are talking about changes in the energy balance of the planet,” the scientist said at the U.N. climate summit in Katowice, Poland. “We should be talking about risk rather than uncertainty.”

but down in texas
‘Future-proofing’ is how you say climate change in Texas

https://grist.org/article/future-proofing-is-how-you-say-climate-change-in-texas/

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/aug/06/domino-effect-of-climate-events-could-push-earth-into-a-hothouse-state
============
The Colorado River provides water to 1-in-8 Americans, and irrigates 15 percent of the country’s agricultural products. The nearly 40 million people who depend on it live in cities from Los Angeles to Denver. The river supports native nations and industry across the vast desert Southwest — including 90 percent of U.S.-grown winter vegetables. Simply put: The region could not exist in its current form without it.

#160 bdwy sktrn on 12.17.18 at 2:41 pm

just passed -13% on sp500. (2940to2555)
the speed of the drop concerns me.

yes , emotional decisions are the worst. don’t look if you are squeamish!

for sure this is not in sell territory , i want a few more points off before i go back in.

amzn cost irdm qqq sp500 on sale now. oil tanking. get ready to buy but wait till you see red, not pink, blood spilling all over;)

a high volume capitulation is near. buy all you can then.

#161 akashic record on 12.17.18 at 2:44 pm

@ climate change

None of us knows it.

It is way above our current understanding of the complexity of our planet and our solar system.

It is as un-resolvable for us at this point in time, as the heart-trenching hunger, poverty of billions of people.

Pretending to know the answer to either of them is dishonest.

Claiming intellectual ownership of “the solution” for each one, is dishonest.

Claiming moral superiority over each of them is dishonest.

Yet politics does exactly that.

Some scientists, some political movements and parties, some governments, some international organizations claim they know all the reasons.

They also claim, they have figured out all the answers, they know how to fix it all, they posses the formula how to translate the only wisdom that saves mankind to taxes and quotas for moving around the population.

They also claim that every doubter of the “knowledge” and “the solution” is morally, intellectually inferior sub-human, with no brain in their head and no heart in their chest.

Their inability to give up their doubt, their resistance to believe that someone figured it all out, knows all the answers and solutions that just has to be followed, makes them dangerous to the brown-shirt degree.

Not that those, who, in history previously claimed to know it all, and demanded that everyone follow suit, sing the same song, have proven themselves any less dangerous, more human, less harmful or created less victims.

Every form of totalitarianism is ugly as hell, regardless the color of the shirt.

#162 jess on 12.17.18 at 2:48 pm

tools of a faker …human or CGI

viral stars: Jered Threatin, a hard rock musician who performs simply under the name “Threatin”.

A month earlier, Threatin had become an international laughing stock, after a small army of internet sleuths revealed that he had tried to fake his way to stardom using paid Facebook likes, YouTube views and bots.

He had uploaded deceptively edited film footage that appeared to show him playing to sold-out crowds, lied about a non-existent award and album sales, completely fabricated an entire US tour, and used it all to secure a 10-city tour of Europe and the UK.

As it would turn out, that was all just the tip of the iceberg. ….

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-sh/jered_threatin

#163 Deplorable Dude on 12.17.18 at 2:50 pm

“Deniers are quite amusing”. – Garth

Yeah….I was also a ‘Coming Ice Age’ denier back in 70’s….

#164 bdwy sktrn on 12.17.18 at 2:59 pm

… from the sunny beaches of jalisco mx i can see firsthand the impending horrors of global warming. it’s quite awful, and extreme, as it’s not 1 or 2 degC warmer than vancouver, it’s like 25C warmer.

and does it ever suck. we have to swim in the ocean for hours to escape the heat. hellish! fresh food , year round, all types, no ‘seasons’ for anything. for about 1/6 the cost of safeway. everyone has these awful ;tans; like their ashamed of being pale and pasty. mayhem, i say!

#165 jess on 12.17.18 at 3:05 pm

bambi deprograming?

Four members of a southwest Missouri family have been caught in a multi-year poaching case where authorities say hundreds of deer were killed illegally.

“The deer were trophy bucks taken illegally, mostly at night, for their heads, leaving the bodies of the deer to waste,” said Lawrence County Prosecuting Attorney Don Trotter.

Conservation agents are calling it one of Missouri’s largest cases of deer poaching.

The case was so egregious that Lawrence County Judge Robert George ordered a special addition to the jail time one of the poachers received.

Court records show the defendant “is to view the Walt Disney movie Bambi, with the first viewing being on or before December 23, 2018, and at least one such viewing each month thereafter, during Defendants incarceration in the Lawrence County Jail.

#166 45north on 12.17.18 at 3:09 pm

Oh Canada: There was a time the men and women in parliament dressed well and spoke with strength and conviction in Canada. We were strong, brave, and building a country with manufacturing, farming, construction, and technological innovation. There was a time we could travel the world receiving respect and admiration. We had a navy, air force, and army second to none. Now we have become the laughing stock of the world, and we are circling the drain because of idiots on stage.

Case in point, the gutting of the Royal Canadian Air Force. The CF-18s we have are obsolete. They need to be replaced. The best replacement is the F-35. Justin Trudeau says they don’t work. He doesn’t know. One stupid idea is buy obsolete F-18 from Australia who has just bought the F-35.

The Royal Australian Air Force’s 3 Sqn has received its first Lockheed Martin F-35A:

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/raaf-combat-squadron-receives-first-f-35a-452011/

The federal government says it needs to tightly control the type of information being circulated about its $19-billion fighter jet replacement program because it knows best what the public should be told.

https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/what-should-the-public-know-about-a-19-billion-jet-purchase-the-government-knows-best

#167 Godth on 12.17.18 at 3:14 pm

#160 akashic record
yeah, we should shut down universities as nobody knows. what a waste of time and money. question everything, dismiss it all if there’s a single mistake. if it doesn’t run like a clock, precise, accurate, linear it’s worthless. apparently it’s all cycles though, now i’m confused.
whatever you do don’t believe your lying eyes.
fake news! The Reef Pt 1: Is it too late to repair the Great Barrier Reef?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rmkyj9qghGY
Fake news!
What’s made the the B.C. wildfires so severe?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l19TNuWResM
Fake news!
Profound Changes in our Jet Streams
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B2YPaaC382U

#168 NoName on 12.17.18 at 3:15 pm

#149 Crazfox on 12.17.18 at 12:44 pm

Can you hear youself, you sound like that woman who runned trupms campaign.

I watched some of her interviews and i noticed every time she was asked a question that she didnt like, she woukd repit question start talking about something completely unrelated for few sentences re visited “same” question, usualy refrasing asked questions that she was asked but slightly changing it to fit what she is talking about and she woud go on and on about something completely unrelated…

What did i ask you to do?
compile, present, explain, recomend and back
recommendations with science.

If carbon tax will prevent North Pole from melting and save santa and elf s toy factory, ill first to start paying it, but you have to show me scientific evidence of it.

And while we are on climate change topic whats your take on electronic cars?

#169 Shawn Allen on 12.17.18 at 3:36 pm

Rate Reset Preferred Shares for Income no capital gains?

Garth responded to me at 139…

In a risk-off environment, investors sell everything. People buying preferreds for capital gains are misguided, as these are best held for steady, tax-efficient dividend income. Just relax. Oversold assets eventually rebound – and meanwhile you get paid to be an owner. – Garth

**************************
Garth did not (thankfully) disagree with anything I posted and I agree rate reset owners should relax.

I was pointing out at 139 that those who expected rate resets to automatically rise with higher rates were wrong.

The confusion arises becase rate resets fell soon after they became popular circa 2013 when interest rates fell.

What happened then is that the higher quality ones (banks) were issued with the government 5 year at about 2.0% and a spread of about 2.0 for a total yeild of 4.0% (rough example).

Then when the 5 year fell to 1.0% yield and lower instead of the yield dropping to 3.0% it stayed around 4.0% as the market decided that was sort of a floor yield. Ergo the price had to drop from $25 to $18.75 to maintain the 4% yield if it reset at 1.0% plus 2.0% spread. The market spread (over the 5 year) on new rate resets went close to 3.0%.

This is why I say in 139 that the spread widened when rates dropped and probably should tighten when rates went back up.

For a bunch of reasons the market yield on the rate resets is high right now driving down the price.

I would be a buyer at these higher yields and certainly not a seller.

If I can get say close 6% on a safe rate reset pref it’s hard to imagine how that will turn out too badly. And if the fear (and selling due to fear) abates then we would see a capital gain as the market yield drops back to say 5%. I would buy for yield and if it happens to pop 20% or 25% as fear abates, I could live with that. Otherwise would just keep collecting the income.

#170 Stan Brooks on 12.17.18 at 3:40 pm

The unqualified to run a lemonade stand guy:

Canada’s robust credit rating should calm fears about federal deficits: Trudeau

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/canada-apos-robust-credit-rating-170110503.html

For Trudeau, the debt-to-GDP is a “benchmark we’re going to stick to.”

A (deep) sigh..

Total debt to GDP is over 4 in Canada.

By debt to GDP he means public debt – provincial debt – crown corporations debt – municipal debt – unfunded liabilities, some imaginary federal debt backed by broken taxpayers.

#171 praire person on 12.17.18 at 3:48 pm

I am not by nature a pessimist. However, the DOW is now about 250 points from its low for the year. On the most active list, only one stock is showing green. Two stocks I regard as normally stable, dividend producing, go to for widows and orphans, is AW and FTS. At the moment, AW is down .99 and I think FTS is down around 28. Will is the smouldering ruin of the market, people stop going for burgers and fries and root beer?

Such drama queens here. ‘Smouldering ruin of the market’? Stop buying stocks and get a proper portfolio. – Garth

#172 Godth on 12.17.18 at 3:48 pm

trump is not president of the usa, that’s fake news. you don’t know.
in my world jfk is president, jennifer francis kennedy. the soviets won the cold war as the usa capitulated without firing a shot. who thought you’d understand russian? we’ve colonized the sun, where we’re all living – isn’t it so warm and cozy here? my pet polar bear loves it. we’ve graduated to anarchism as a species, reason and self government for all is jennifer’s platform. i think i might take a nap now.

#173 Yellow Vest Supporter on 12.17.18 at 10:02 pm

#123 ” Yellow vests aren’t the new “Brown Shirts” . The new fascist movement is the so called Antifa thugs who are union members and other civil servants organized and paid for by the Liberals, Socialists and Globalists. The likes of George Soros is openly advertising $200 positions for paid rioters to attack peaceful protestors.

Right back at you. ” Be careful who you support “.

The Liberals, Unions and Globalists are doubling down with violence in the face of their faltering movement. Yellow Vests are the people who are being forced to swallow a bitter farce.

Please provide a credible link that Soros pays people to attack others. Or, shut up. – Garth

#174 Nonplused on 12.18.18 at 2:59 am

Actually, Garth, thinking about the extremes is a good way of testing your model. I’ve had this discussion many times in academic circles, especially with people who think “the right amount of socialism” is good.

Your examples are actually very fit for testing by extremes. “Will house prices go up forever?” Yes, they will, because the central banks are targeting inflation and fear deflation, and they can mostly control it most of the time and get their target 2% inflation no problem over the long run. Ok, so we’ve established that. But the real question should be “Can house prices rise forever at a rate far greater than inflation?” That’s where a test of the extremes can help us. So build a model in Excel where wages rise at 2% and house prices rise at 10% and see how long that is sustainable. It isn’t, as we are finding out in the real world now.

We can also use extremes to test the stock market. Sure, as you state, they can’t go to zero, but individual stocks sure can, including Sears, Blockbuster, Toys “R” Us, Tesla, GM, GE, and many others. That’s just creative destruction. But can all stocks go to zero simultaneously? Well, yes they can, but you have to envision the circumstances that would cause that and they are dire. You’d be looking at something that caused a complete economic collapse even greater than the Great Depression. Something like a nuclear war. But if you are hoping to make a lot of money shorting a nuclear war, ya you can make a lot of money in theory but you’ll be dead and the money will be worthless.

#175 Where's The Money Greedeau? on 12.18.18 at 3:30 am

Re: #97 meslippery on 12.17.18 at 12:48 am
Anyone else having attitude from PC points.
Yes Garth like clipping coupons.
Wow It work great now it dose not . Anyone??
+++++++++++++++++++++++++
PC Points has been nothing but a thorn in my side ever since I joined in 2014, but can’t refuse the points because I’m not rich!
Have had weekly problems (missing points, charging higher price at till) for as long as I can remember, especially when they joined Shoppers with the PC Optimum.
Still haven’t received an answer about missing points from complaint I filed in Feb. this year.
In fact, I never receive replies from them becasue I have become a thorn in their side, using up their time since they are doing it to me every week.
They are banking on you not following their points. Maybe that’s why Galen Weston now has a ~$380 million CRA judgement (being appealed of course) against him for setting up a bank with no customers, just him.
They have now set up PC Mastercard with a dashboard which makes following your transactions on that site as hard as the PC Optimum site.
That dashboard looks a lot like the big 6 bank “money managers” that are installed on your accounts.
MX Technologies-https://craft.co/mx-technologies
Have a look at who their owners are and where they are situated, enough said as I explained this company in prior entries.

#176 Y. Knott on 12.18.18 at 7:28 am

#161 akashic record on 12.17.18 at 2:44 pm
@ climate change

They also claim, they have figured out all the answers, they know how to fix it all…

– Yeah, the UN IPCC have indeed – and all it’ll cost us is $122 trillion, to be raised by a $240/gallon fuel tax.

Sorry – not this week, not lookin’ good for next…

#177 Crazyfox on 12.18.18 at 5:43 pm

#168 NoName on 12.17.18 at 3:15 pm

I heard you the first time… science, point form, just watch the lectures on the links already provided yesterday. Everything you need to know is there.

Interestingly, I’ve looked more into the IPCC’s findings in the last couple days and it mirrors what I’m saying projecting 1.5 degrees (they say 2040, I say 2038 and I repeat, neither of us are factoring in Methane release or Albedo).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albedo

The IPCC does not factor in Arctic methane release in any of their long term calculations. The IPCC does not consider this in my opinion, because they don’t want to cause panic and that is a major concern to me that the IPCC is willing on one hand to ring alarm bells ok, saying that if the world doesn’t reduce its C02 emissions by 45% by 2030, environmental disaster is certain but won’t say why. Why 2030? When you look at the most imminent responses to continued warming, its the arctic sea ice gone in late summer that creates the most immediate risk because of the negative feedbacks that follow.

Its so important to understand even if its only Garth that reads this. With the arctic sea ice cap gone entirely, even if its for a few days to 2 weeks a year, winters will become 2 weeks shorter within a few years, seemingly overnight and a full month shorter than today by 2050 as permafrost predictably melts overall. That may not sound concerning… but the risks of heat waves in the arctic go way up exponentially. With this, the potential for rapid permafrost melting (Methane release) and ice sheet melts in Greenland and to a lesser extent Antarctica goes way up.

We are talking about some predicted 2.5 C warming globally on top of where we will be with rapid permafrost melting Methane release spread out over 5 to 10 years, the greatest warming will be over the Arctic itself so its a nasty feedback loop and it could be quick, occurring within a 10 year period that follows ice free Arctic summers. Most of the ice sheets in the world will destabilize from a new normal like that. What follows is SLR will be unexpected and rapid, giving some 75% of the world’s ocean coastline populations little chance to retreat in an orderly fashion. With rapid SLR comes earthquakes, volcanoes, it then becomes biblical.

We are not talking about the next century here, but this one, with major Arctic methane release possibly in as little as 20 years… its really all about just how much Methane release potential there is there. I don’t know the answer to that, I’m not a scientist… I’m not sure at this point anyone does… but it has already begun and when I hear a 40 year scientist most Canadians know talk about methane in this way (8 minute mark):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zRQvxLuvtX0&t=101s

Lets just say that the IPCC’s warning is not coincidental to 2030 ok, their 2030 timeline is there for a reason, I think that’s when they think the arctic cap will be gone and all of what follows from there is risk.

Sobering.